After a high-scoring Game 1 (128-112 Lakers’ win), the last two games of this series have both gone Under the total. Memphis won Game 2 at home without Ja Morant, 103-93. But then, despite Morant returning, the Lakers exploded out of the gate (led 35-9 after 1Q) and won 111-101 in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead.

Morant got things going late in Game 3, scoring 24 points in the 4Q to finish with 45 for the game. But his teammates gave him next to nothing, combining to score just 56 points on 32.8% collective shooting. Dillon Brooks was ejected for a low-blow on LeBron James. 

Memphis will definitely shoot better tonight in Game 4. Meanwhile, the Lakers are probably due to shoot better themselves, at least from three-point range (where they’ve gone 14 of 54 the last two games). 

Keep in mind that Game 3 only stayed Under by nine points despite the Grizzlies scoring only 9 in the first quarter.

The Over is 7-3 the last 10 times the Grizzlies have been off an ATS loss. The Over is 7-1 in the Lakers’ last eight games after a SU win. 8*

Based on closing lines, every game in this series has gone Over the total. That’s primarily thanks to Miami being much better than expected offensively. The Heat have not only scored more than 120 points in all three games, but they are shooting 55% overall for the series and 50% from three.

Something to keep in mind is that the Heat were the lowest scoring team in the league during the regular season, averaging just 109.5 points/game on 46.2% overall shooting and 34.8% from three. They were also 29th in adjusted pace, meaning they played very slow. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo being out for the Bucks has dominated the headlines for this series, but the injury bug now seems to have bit Miami. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo have suffered season-ending injuries while Jimmy Butler (averaging 30 points/game in this series) is questionable and Bam Adebayo is not at 100 percent. So the ridiculous shooting we’ve seen so far from Miami in this series should definitely tail off. 

But the Heat were also one of the top defensive teams this year, allowing the second fewest points/game in the league (109.8). 

I’m on the Under, no matter if Giannis and/or Butler plays or not. We’re simply due for a lower-scoring game. There were only 101 total points scored in the second half Saturday. 10* 

Every game in this series has stayed Under the total and as a result of that, the current O/U line for Game 4 is basically 10 points lower than the closing O/U line for Game 1. 

Now, not only has every game stayed Under, but the Cavs and Knicks have yet to even combine for 200 total points! In Game 3, Cleveland scored just 79 points. That was the fewest points scored by any team, in any game this NBA season.

The lack of scoring has created solid value on the Over here, in my opinion. Cleveland won’t shoot 38.7% overall again this afternoon nor will they miss 26 of 33 three-point attempts. 

For the series, the Cavs are averaging just 94.3 points on 43.7% shooting. This is well below their season averages of 111.6 points/game on 48.6% shooting. It’s a similar story with New York, who is averaging 96.7 points on 42% shooting in this series. They average 115.3 points on 46.8% shooting for the season. 

I just can’t see the cold shooting from both teams continuing. Take the Over in Game 4. 10* 

Boston easily won Games 1 and 2 at home and I really don’t see Atlanta having much of a path for success in this series, even with them now at home for the next two games.

Perhaps the Hawks’ shooting will start to improve after they went a dismal 5 of 29 from three in Game 1 and 42.6% overall in Game 2. Their defense isn’t very good, but each of the first two games did stay Under the total and that’s the way I see Game 3 going as well.

The Celtics are an elite team defensively and finished the regular season third in efficiency. In four of the five meetings this season, Boston has held Atlanta under 30% shooting from three. The one exception was Game 2 when the Hawks finished at 33.3% (16 of 48).

Trae Young has really struggled with his shot in the first two games. He’s 14 of 40 overall and 3 of 13 on three-point attempts.

Going back quite some time, the Under is now 41-16-2 in Hawks’ first round playoff games. Tonight should be no different. 8* 

I thought the Golden Knights would make more of a game of it, but the Jets shut them down, allowing just 17 shots. Hellebuyck, who can be a game changer, wasn't even worked.  However the Jets are not always consistent, so I am not convinced of a similar result in Game two.  Will it be Broissoit in net again?  He was very good down the stretch, but allowed 4 goals with an .867 save % in Game one. 

I think we will see a better game from the Golden Knights, but the Jets have been putting up some high numbers of goals lately and scored with relative ease on Monday night.  The best option in this match-up is the total.  With a very low number available on Thursday, look for this game to go over.

After a ridiculously low-scoring Game 2 (won by the Sixers, 96-84), I like the Over in Game 3 of this best of seven series.

Certainly, this is a must-win for the Nets after losing the first two games. But I’m just not confident enough in this team to bet them plus the points. At home though, I am counting on a better effort at the offensive end after they shot 37.5% overall in Game 2. They shot 55% in Game 1. 

Both teams have been jacking up threes. Philly has hoisted 78 3PA in the two games while Brooklyn isn’t too far behind at 71. Now both were just 31% from long-range in Game 2. You’ve got to expect improvement tonight and with that kind of three-point shooting frequency, that should mean points.

This is a really low number; I believe it’s the lowest for any playoff game thus far. 

The 76ers are 12-3 to the Over after allowing 100 points or less the previous game. Game 2 was the Nets’ second lowest shooting percentage of the season and they scored just 35 points after halftime. You have to figure we’ll see better offensive numbers at home. Philadelphia is third in offensive efficiency, so I’m not worried about them either. 10* 

I wondered which goal tender would step up in the Wild/Stars series and it appears both will.  We could even see Fleurie tonight as Gustavsson did face over 50 shots on Monday. With Ek out and now Pavelski questionable, offense looks even more scarce for Wednesday.  These are two very strong defensive teams (third and sixth in goals-allowed), and with play-off hockey being generally tighter, a high total is not to be expected.  Take today's game to go under the total.

Miami lit Milwaukee up in Game 1, shooting 59.5% from the floor overall and making 15 of 25 threes (60%). I can’t see that happening again tonight as you have to remember the Heat were the NBA’s lowest scoring team during the regular season.

Plus, Tyler Herro is now done for the season due to a broken right hand. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the big injury concern for the series, however, as Milwaukee has to handicapped dramatically differently without their superstar. He is listed as doubtful for tonight. Defensively, the Bucks aren’t as good without Antetokounmpo but they will also struggle offensively against Miami, who is #2 in points allowed this year. 

The Heat’s slow pace is also key. On average, their games have been the lowest scoring in the league this season. 

Whether or not Giannis plays, I like Game 2 to stay Under. It’s mostly because of Miami’s certain offensive regression but Milwaukee is also 5-2 Under off a double digit loss at home. 10*

If there’s one first round series in the NBA Playoffs that appears to be a total mismatch, it would be this one as Boston were runaway 112-99 winners in Game 1 and are once again double digit favorites for Game 2. 

Game 1 easily stayed Under the number as Atlanta shot just 38.8% from the field including a horrific 5 of 29 from three. I expect the Hawks will shoot better tonight.

The Celtics scored 74 points in the first half of Game 1 and pretty much coasted from there. We all know about the historic offensive efficiency this team put forth in the early part of the season. They finished #2 in the league in offensive efficiency, only trailing a Sacramento team that did establish a new record in points per possession.

Atlanta generally plays no defense as is evident by the fact they allow 117.9 points/game. 

Boston is 7-2 to the Over following a SU win by 10 or more points. 10* 

The Warriors and Kings combined 249 points in Game 1, going Over the the closing number of 237.5. I expect a lower-scoring Game 2.

There were a lot of free throws in Game 1, 59 combined attempts to be exact (32 for Sacramento, 27 for Golden State). Don’t think we’ll see that many again tonight.

The Warriors have won at least one road game in a NBA-record 27 consecutive series. It’s not often that we see them trailing in a playoff series. But when they are, the Under has gone 16-6. 

The four regular season meetings between these teams saw the Under go 2-1-1. Only one the four saw more than 237 total points scored.

With the world expecting an Over (and the number has been bet up a few points), I’m rolling with a “contrarian” Under. 10* 

This is a fascinating series as the team with home court advantage (Sacramento) is a decided underdog. Since 1990, no top 3 seed has been this big of a series underdog and it’s not particularly close. 

Golden State has won a road game in all 24 series under Steve Kerr, but they were terrible away from home in the regular season, giving up an average of 122.5 points/game while going 11-30 SU and 12-28-1 ATS. 

Sacramento had the most efficient offense in the league during the regular season.

But this is a really high total for a playoff game. I don’t expect either team to play as fast as they usually do.

The Under is a surprising 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these teams including 3-0-1 here in Sacramento. This number, even after being bet down some, is still higher than any of the four regular season games. 10*

The A's have given up 24 runs in their last three games while scoring 23.  Their starter Fujinami, has given up nearly 2 runs an inning to date.  The A's sport the league's worst  also runs-allowed average to date.  Mets' starter Carrasco has struggled in the early season, also allowing more than a run an inning in his first two appearances. The A's bullpen will likely be very little help.

On offense, the Mets should have power, they just haven't shown it very often yet.  They are breaking out as I write, leading the A's 11-5 in just the fifth inning.  I am a believer in a very high score total in Saturday's match-up .  Jump on the over, and quickly.  After Friday's score this total could rise.

Since the inception of the play-in format, Unders have gone 9-3 in these games including a perfect 6-0 last year. But this O/U looks far too low. 

Perhaps oddsmakers are fixated on the fact that all three of the regular season matchups between the Raptors and Bulls stayed Under the total. There were 217, 208 and 202 total points scored in those three games. As a result, we’ve got a far lower total here than any of those previous three matchups.

Bulls’ games averaged 224.7 PPG this year. Raptors’ games averaged 224.1 PPG. Going by those averages, there’s clear value here on the Over. 

I looked through every Chicago result this season and this would be the lowest O/U for any game all season. The only two lower than 219.5 were both against Miami, who is the lowest scoring team in all of the NBA.  

Toronto has had four games this year with lower totals. Three of them were in October. The last one was two days before Christmas, vs. Cleveland, and that game went Over with 225 total pts scored. 10*

Two teams just playing out the string on Sunday as the Rockets are guaranteed to finish with a bottom three record in the league while the Wizards have also been eliminated from playoff contention for some time now.

Maybe the only thing more surprising than seeing the Rockets favored here is the fact they’ve actually been road favorites three times previous to this. They are 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS in those games. One of those was their last game, a 112-109 victory over Charlotte where they did not cover as 4.5-point chalk. Houston comes in having won their last two games, but I could never lay points on the road with them as they’re just 12-25 ATS away from home this season.

But I’m not in a rush to back the Wizards either. They too are off a win, 114-108 over Miami as 5-point underdogs, but haven’t won consecutive games in more than a month. Four starters and five rotation players missed the Miami game for Washington and they’ll be short handed again here. 

I just can’t imagine there will be much defense played in this game. Both teams are already in the bottom 10 defensively with Houston having the second worst defensive rating in the league. 

The Over has hit in six straight Wizards’ games, three of which saw more than 240 total points scored. The Over is also 7-2 in the Rockets’ last nine road games. 10*

Neither of these teams are going to the playoffs. So with it being the second to last game of the season, expect little to no defense to be played as 34-46 Pacers host the 16-64 Pistons. 

Detroit is just straight up tanking at this point as they have just ONE win since the All-Star Break. That came against Indiana 117-97, back on March 13th. That’s tied for the Pistons’ best offensive output since the Break. It was also the second fewest points they’ve allowed since the ASB. But considering they’ve let their last three opponents all shoot 51% or better from the floor, that defensive effort isn’t likely to be repeated tonight.

Coming into the season, Indiana was thought to be perhaps the worst team in the Eastern Conference. They surprised early, becoming the first team to go Over their season win total. But it’s shaping up to be a rocky finish with just one win over the last seven games.

The Pacers’ last game was a 138-129 final. They lost to the Knicks. Four times in the last six games, Indiana has scored more than 120 points. But the bad news is they’ve also allowed 127 or more four times in that stretch.

Detroit’s last four games have all gone Over. Again, there will be no defense played in this game. 10*

After four straight losses, the Lightning finally got their act together and played the way they are capable of, winning 3 straight.  Not just winning; they have outscored the competition 14-2.  They will face the Rangers on 3 days rest.

The 8-2 Rangers are also well rested, and are playing at home tonight.  The under dominates these two teams' latest action, 4 straight for Tampa, 2 of 3 for the Rangers, and 7-0 when these two teams meet. The Rangers have the fourth best goals-against avg. and Shesterkin in net.  He has a .946 save % over his last seven games. Not to be outdone, the Lightning have Vasilevskiy at the top of his form, with 2 shutouts and a scorching .978 save % in his last four starts.

This is essentially an early play-off game.  Look for a continued tight checking, low-scoring affair, and take the total to go under.

The Sharks have won three straight games, including wins against two play-off bound teams.  Equally surprising, they have also scored 23 goals in their last 6 games. Not surprising then, that the over is 5-1 in the Sharks last six games. The Avs, playing in San Jose on Tuesday, have won five straight road games, scoring 21 goals.  They have an exemplary record against the Sharks, with the over figuring in 14 of 19 meetings.  Kahkonen  is off a rare win, but has allowed at least four and as high as eight goals in recent appearances.  This is still a meaningful game for the Avs, but it appears San Jose still has it's heart in it while playing down the stretch.  Look for another high scoring game and take the over.

The Golden Knights play a very tight brand of hockey on the road, essentially play-off hockey. They have an exceptional road record. They beat up on the Wild last time out, holding Minnesota to a single goal. The Wild are not a highly productive offense, especially with Kaprisov still out.  Minnesota gets by on solid defense and excellent goal-tending, especially from Gustavsson, who should be in net on Monday.  He has been exceptional lately. Both teams are in first in their respective divisions, but have no breathing room.  Look for a pre-playoff type of game, and take the total to go under.

Dallas is just 9-14 SU since the Kyrie Irving trade and in danger of missing the playoffs entirely. That would be quite the embarrassment. Atlanta may be just 9-9 SU since firing Nate McMillian, but their postseason prospects look a lot more favorable at this point. They are 8th in the East with a four-game cushion. 

This is the second game of a back to back for the Mavericks and the end of a five-game road trip. They lost yesterday in Miami, 129-122 as a 1-point underdog, despite shooting 61% from the floor. 

The Hawks are also coming off a loss, 124-107 in Brooklyn. They didn’t shoot well (42.9%) but for a fourth consecutive game they allowed the opponent to shoot better than 50%. 

You can always expect a high total when the Hawks are involved, but each of their last three games have actually stayed Under the closing number. This despite 231 or more total points being scored in all three contests. The Under is 6-2 their last eight games as well. It’s another high total here. 

Even with Atlanta's defensive struggles, the Mavs aren’t about to shoot the ball as well as they did yesterday. Also, Dallas is a team that likes to shoot a lot of threes. But the weakness of the Hawks’ defense is defending 2-point attempts. I won’t call for this to be a low-scoring game, but it will stay Under. 10* 

The last 12 San Diego State games have all stayed Under the total. But I’m going to say it’s “lucky #13” for Over bettors Saturday night against Florida Atlantic in the first of two national semifinals in the Final Four. 

Incredibly, going back to the second half of the second round game vs. Furman, San Diego State opponents have combined to miss 45 of their last 51 3PA. The Aztecs are certainly very sound defensively, but there’s no way opponents should be missing at that kind of rate over such a sustained period. 

Florida Atlantic rediscovered the three-point shot against Kansas State in the Elite 8, making 9 of 23 attempts. That’s not lights out shooting by any means, but it’s more made threes in one game than the last two SDSU opponents have made. I truly believe that FAU is going to do a better job here than previous SDSU opponents.

FAU averages 78 points/game. Let’s also not forget San Diego State topped 70 in the second round and Sweet 16. 

In the end, this boils down to my belief San Diego State can’t continue getting away with their opponents shooting so poorly from three. That may sound like an an endorsement of the Owls to cash, but I also expect San Diego State to improve offensively from the Creighton game (where they shot 38% overall, were 3 of 13 from three and attempted only six free throws).  10*

The Bruins seem to dictate the flow of the games they play, and five of their last six games have gone under the total.  With the best defense and PK in the league, no one seems to score often against the Bruins, and Boston hasn't relied on  a ton of offense for their recent wins,  Swayman will likely be in net today.  He has had 2 shutouts, and a .962 save % in his last 4 games. Jarry is much improved of late, off a  shutout win of his own.  The under is a solid 5-1 when the Bruins and Penguins meet up in Pittsburgh.  With a hefty total of 6 1/2 available, I believe this game will also go under the total.

Charlotte has been a pesky spoiler over the last week, winning three times as an underdog of nine or more points. After beating Dallas twice, the Hornets put a dent in Oklahoma City’s playoff aspirations with a 137-134 win on Tuesday. 

Now they face the 10th place team in their own conference, Chicago, who has lost two in a row. The Bulls are still likely going to make the play-in tournament, but they haven’t helped themselves lately by allowing the Clippers and Lakers to both shoot over 50% from the floor. The Clippers shot it at a 59% clip against them on Monday.

I expect this to be another high-scoring contest. The Bulls have shot 51% or better in four straight, so offense hasn’t been the issue. They are averaging 116 points/game in that stretch. The team’s offensive rating has been way up this month.

Charlotte has been short-handed but that hasn’t seemed to matter. P.J. Washington had a career 43 points against OKC and the team shot 55% overall including 14 made threes. 

All three prior meetings between the teams this season have stayed Under. But we’re getting a great number here, IMO. Consider that the closing O/U lines for the last two meetings were 235 and 237. 10*

We’ve got two teams on Under runs with Denver 6-0 to the Under in its last six games and New Orleans 17-7 Under in its last 24. But I think this number is far too low for a couple of teams that have both been shooting very well of late. 

Led by Nikola Jokic, Denver is one of the best offensive teams in the league. They’ve shot 50% or better from the floor in each of the last eight games. This really isn’t all that surprising considering they lead the league in FG% at 50.9. They are on the only team in the NBA above 50%. 

At home, the Nuggets are averaging 120.7 points/game, basically an increase of eight points/game over what they average on the road. Four of the last six games have come on the road. Expect the Nuggets to have success here offensively against a Pelicans team whose recent defensive output is slightly misleading. 

While New Orleans has allowed an average of just 100.0 points over its last five games, that includes facing San Antonio, Charlotte and Portland. The Pelicans just allowed 120 at Golden State the other night. 

I think we’ll see New Orleans shoot the three better than they have in either of the two previous matchups with Denver. The Over has hit in 7 of the Nuggets’ last 10 at home. 10* 

The 6-4 Islanders have stepped up their play lately and have been finding the back of the net regularly, but have not been defending to their norm.  The Capitals are still a scoring threat, but are giving up goals at an alarming rate, 4+ GA  on average in their last 8 games.  Seven of ten of the Isles' games and a full nine of ten Caps' games have  gone over today's total.  Sorokin was great in his last start but has been more uneven of late than we have come to expect.  Caps' goalie Kuemper has allowed  4 goals in three of his last four starts.  The Islanders played poorly vs the Capitals last time out and are still on the dance card for the play-offs, so look for a better effort today.  The over is 4-1 when these two teams have met recently.  With the low total available, I expect a similar result today. Go for the over.

Currently 10th in the Western Conference and holding onto a tenuous half-game lead for the final play-in spot, Oklahoma City needs wins. Fortunately for them, their next three opponents will be Charlotte, Detroit and Indiana (i.e. the three worst teams from the Eastern Conference).

But even though OKC is 17-10 ATS vs. the East this season, I’m not sure I’d want to lay this many points. I certainly do expect the Thunder to put a decent number of points on the board, however. When they’re at home, they average 121.1 PPG this season.

Sunday night, the Thunder scored 118 in a win at Portland. It probably should have been more but scoring in that game slowed way down in the 4Q.

As for Charlotte, they are due for an uptick in scoring after their last five games have all stayed Under. They’re averaging just 104 points over that five-game stretch, which is well below their season average of 111.1 points/game. 

In my view, these teams should have no problem combining for 230+ points. They combined for 234 in the first meeting of the season, back in December. 10* 

Milwaukee is a team that doesn’t have much difficulty scoring. Over their last five games, the Bucks have averaged 124.2 points, including two efforts with 130 or more. Even when they don’t score all that much (like Saturday’s loss to Denver), their games tend to be high-scoring. (They gave up 129 to the Nuggets). 

One would think the Bucks are destined to have their way with the lowly Pistons on Monday. Detroit comes in with the worst record in the Eastern Conference and is 37 games back of the first place Bucks. The Pistons are tied for the second most points per game allowed (118.6) in the league this year. 

Having lost by at least nine points in five straight games, the Pistons are predictably massive underdogs here. I certainly have no interest in taking them, but also don’t want to lay this many points. So let’s look at the total.

Again, Milwaukee should score a lot tonight. Especially after a game in which they made only 25 percent of their three-point attempts. For the season, the Bucks are shooting 36.6% from three. 

Over the last three seasons, the Bucks have been road favorites of at least 12.5 points six different times. The Over is 6-0 in those six games. I’m counting on Detroit giving us “enough” to get Over the total here. Last time these teams played, the final score was 150-130. 10*

31 goals in 7 games; not bad for the NHL's 26th ranked offense. The Canadiens have been scoring surprisingly frequently lately.  Unfortunately they are also 29th/31st in goals against/PK, and have given up 37 goals in that same period.  The Habs have had 7 of 10 games go over the total.

The 3-7 Sabres have a legitimate barn-burner of an offense, but they've also struggled to defend.  They shut out the Islanders, but all 5 previous games went over, with the Sabres allowing 5+goals against on average. No net minder can be expected to perform well given these defenses, however Allen is scheduled in net for Montreal and he has been truly dreadful in his last 3 games.

Given the up and down nature of these two teams, either one could burn up the ice or flame out on any given day.  The total is a much more dependable bet.  Take the Over on Monday.

analysis soonHigh totals are nothing new in the NBA, but this one is too high as Minnesota takes on Golden State Sunday, an important game for playoff positioning in the Western Conference.

The Timberwolves come in 37-37, which has them seventh in the West. That’s 1.5 games back of Golden State (39-36). As a reminder, the top six get to avoid the play-in tournament.

Minnesota has gone Over in four straight, but one of those was a double overtime game, another they shot the lights out against the Knicks (61.4 FG%!) and then they faced Atlanta, who plays no defense. It remains to be seen who is in the lineup for the T’wolves tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards are both listed as questionable.

Regardless, Golden State is much better defensively at home than they are on the road. The Under is 21-13 this year at the Chase Center. 

The first two times these teams met this season, they combined for 233 and 213 points. That last one saw the Warriors without Steph Curry and Draymond Green, so this one may not be as low-scoring. But Golden State is 13-4 Under this season facing teams that allow 116+ points/game. 10*

Prior to going Over in its 83-71 Sweet 16 victory over Xavier, the Texas Longhorns had gone Under in seven consecutive games. I think we’ll see a “return to form” here in the Elite 8 vs. Miami. 

The Hurricanes stunned everybody by hanging 89 points on top seed Houston in the Sweet 16. That was the Canes’ second straight Tournament game, scoring more than 80 points. There’s no denying this is a talented offensive team, but I can’t shake the fact they probably should have lost to Drake and only scored 63 in that first round game.

I don’t think we’ll see Miami shoot as well here against a Texas team that is Top 10 in defensive efficiency. I know I said the same thing about Houston’s defense, but the Cougars simply played poorly. 

Texas has shot better than 50% in each Tourney game thus far and was 7 of 12 from three vs. Xavier. That came on the heels of going 1 of 13 against Penn State. The Longhorns won’t be shooting as well here as they did in the last game. 

Texas might be without Dylan Disu. They managed without him against Xavier, but his absence would be significant. Both teams are set to cool off at the offensive end. 10*

Fireworks are expected here between UConn and Gonzaga, which some may view as a “de facto National Title Game” the way this bracket has broken. One could certainly make an argument that these are the two best teams still standing.

UConn has shot the lights out the last two games (54% and 57%) and it’s not like Gonzaga is known for its defense. Yet we just saw Gonzaga’s last opponent fail to make a basket for an 11 minute stretch in the second half. Not saying that will happen again here (it won’t) but UConn is due to cool off offensively.

On the flip side, Gonzaga has been down double digits each of the last two games. I don’t think Drew Timme has the kind of game he had vs. UCLA.

Second chance points were also huge for the Zags vs. the Bruins. They are certainly not going to dominate the glass that same way vs. UConn, a team with tremendous size. The Huskies have allowed just 63, 55 and 65 points in their three tournament wins. 

The Under is 5-2 in UConn’s last seven games. This is a really high total for an Elite 8 game. 10*

The Kings are riding high in recent games.  They haven't given up more than two goals in nine games, a real step up from their  3.2  goals against season's avg.  Korpisalo has played very well as a King, with a .929 save % in his last eight starts.

The Jets seem to be reverting to their fine defensive form but don't score much themselves lately.  Their last five games have all gone under the total.  Hellebuyck has looked better recently after a poor early March.  The Jets are still in the running for a wild card spot, but must do what they do best to succeed, which is play a tight defensive game with solid goal-tending.

Look for this match-up to go under the total.

You have to give Princeton credit for getting to the Sweet 16, but I feel that the Tigers have had a bit of a “charmed life” in getting thus far. The Ivy League Tournament, just a four-team affair, was played in their home gym. Then, in their first round NCAA Tournament game, they watched Arizona go stone cold down the stretch. Drawing Missouri in the second round was a favorable matchup for the 15-seed.

Creighton is by far the best defensive team that Princeton has seen in awhile. The Bluejays are Top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

And Princeton has some worrisome offensive metrics. They’re currently 201st in 3PT%, 199th in FT% and 258th in offensive block%. 

At the same time, I don’t expect Creighton to shoot the three as well as they did against Baylor. They were 11 of 24 from behind the arc in that game. ShotQuality data indicates the Bluejays should have finished with about 11 fewer points.

Creighton was also 22 of 22 from the FT line in that win over Baylor. Not sure we see that kind of production again either. 10*

The Islanders, winners of three straight, have scored seventeen goals while allowing just six.  Five of six of their games have gone over the total.  They have also won six straight against the Blue Jackets. The Islanders, still in the running for a wild card spot, have been beating up on weaker teams (and the Leafs), scoring in a very prolific un-Islander-like  style.  They face one of the league's worst defenses on Friday.  Columbus are off a 7-6 win, but victories have been few and far between. High totals have not.  The over has figured in eight of their last ten games.  The Jackets have given up a ton of goals, but they have also managed to score an average of four goals a game in their last five games.

The total is lowish, given the Islanders' reputation, but I expect a higher total on Friday night.  Take the game to go over the total.

I’m expecting this to be a defensive battle in the East Regional between 7-seed Michigan State and 3-seed Kansas State.

The lower seeded team is actually the favorite here, which I’m not sure I agree with. But Under seems like the best course of action here considering Michigan State plays at a very slow pace (303rd in adjusted tempo) and hasn’t been hitting its threes recently (2 of 17 vs. Marquette). 

Kansas State probably can’t count on shooting 67% from two-point range either, which is what they’ve done in their first two tournament games. Against Marquette, Michigan State allowed only nine made field goals from inside the arc! 

Unders have been the way to go so far in the NCAA Tournament. Through the first two rounds (and play-in games), the Under is hitting at a 67% rate (35-17). 

Kansas State has been one of the few exceptions to the Under rule as both of their Tourney games so far have stayed Under. But they shot poorly from three against Kentucky in the second round and my guess is that Tom Izzo is going to come up with a way to slow down Markquis Nowell in this game. 10* 

This is a big game for both teams in what is shaping up to be a very crowded (and tight) Western Conference playoff race. Only four games separate 4th from 12th place in the West. Both the Thunder and Clippers are in that mix.

Oklahoma City has a better point differential than all but the top four teams. So they are to be respected. But I’m not sure I’d want to take the Thunder here against a Clippers team that was the preseason NBA Title favorite and now at full strength.

The Clippers are already 0-2 vs. the Thunder this season, however. 

So instead of the side, let’s look at the total as the Under looks like a smart play here. The Under is 29-10 in the Clippers’ previous 39 home games. Plus 12 of the last 16 meetings between these teams here in LA have gone Under. 8*

Other than a poor effort vs Calgary, Vegas has been overachieving on offense, averaging over 4  goals a game in their last 5.  They'll be all in against Columbus to hold onto their lead in a tight Western Conference.  Both defenses are depleted.  Vegas is missing a remarkable 4 goal-tenders this year.  Columbus is down a goalie and 2 defensemen at the moment.  Hutchison gave up five goals for Columbus last time out.  Quick really struggled vs Calgary, and his save % is under .890 for the season.

Columbus is a finalist in the Bedard sweepstakes, winning just once in their last seven games.  They are 8-20 on the road, and bottom feeders on offense and defense.  I expect Vegas to put up big numbers vs the Blue Jackets, but Quick has hardly been unbeatable lately.   The over has figured in 7 of 10 Columbus games and 3 straight Vegas Knights matches.Take this game to go over the total as well.

UCLA demolished UNC Asheville in the first round 86-53, easily covering the 17-point spread. Northwestern, who opened as a dog but ended up being bet to a favorite, defeated Boise State 65-57 and obviously covered the number as well.

I expect this to be a low-scoring contest. Oddsmakers do too. But I think the O/U is too high here considering both teams are 235th or lower in adjusted tempo and in the top 20 in defensive efficiency. UCLA is actually #1 in the country in defensive efficiency per KenPom.

The Bruins shot 54% against UNC Asheville, which they won’t do again here. But I do expect another strong defensive effort, similar to the L3 games where they’ve allowed 33%, 36% and 37% shooting to go along with 56, 61 and 53 points.

Over the last month, Northwestern has not gone back to back games without shooting below 37% once. They shot 49% against Boise State. So recent history suggests they’ll be off here.

UCLA is 4-1 Under following a straight up win by 20 or more points. 10*

The Caps travel to St. Louis on Friday, facing the 3-7 Blues. In addition to losing, the Blues have given up 13 goals in their last two games.  For the Season, the St Louis defense has sunk to 28th.  With Binnington sent to the corner, it will likely be Greiss in net.  He has seen very limited action this season and for good reason.  Even with their defensive woes, St. Louis can still put the puck in the net.  They've averaged 4 goals scored in their last 4 games.
The 5-5 Capitals are also scoring in bunches, putting up 13 goals in their last 3 games. We've seen the total go over in three straight in both the Capitals and Blues games.  The Caps are in a pattern of losing following a win, but I think they will have success against Greiss.  Let's stick to what works here and take this game to again go over the total.

The Pacers and Pistons just met on Saturday with Indiana winning 121-115. They (the Pacers) also won the only other meeting this season (back in October), 124-115. So that’s 2-0 ATS for them and 2-0 to the Over. 

I think tonight’s game will feature a lot less scoring.

Detroit comes into tonight on a pitiful 11-game losing streak. They are already eliminated from playoff contention and also playing short-handed right now. Cade Cunningham, Hamidou Diallo and Isaiah Stewart all out for the season. In addition, leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks both sat on Saturday. The team is already bottom three in the NBA in scoring.

Indiana played without Tyrese Haliburton, their leading scorer, on Saturday, not to mention Myles Turner , Bennedict Mathurin and T.J. McConnell. Amidst all the absences, Jalen Smith, Isaiah Jackson and Andrew Nembhard combined for 58 points. The Pacers are still alive for the play-in tournament.

There figures to be a lot of absences - for both teams - on Monday. Pacers’ coach Rick Carlisle has said he doesn’t expect any of the players who missed Saturday’s game to be back. The Pistons are in full on “tank” mode, so why would they rush anyone back? The Under had hit six straight meetings here in Detroit, prior to Saturday. 10*

The Wild have to be the best defense in the NHL over the medium term.  Add two star-quality goalies in Gustavsson and Fleurie, and you can expect a steady diet of low totals.  It will be Gustavsson in net on Sunday.  The under has figured in 8 or 10 of their last games. Losing Kaprizov has put a further damper on a low scoring Sild offense. 

Arizona wighs in at 24th on defense, which is better than their offense (27th)The Under is 4-1-1 in their last six back to back situations.  The Coyotes should have Vejmelka in net.  While a bit uneven lately, he has held the Coyotes in many games this season.

Bothe teams are playing on 0 days rest.  We'll see two tired teams, both of which struggle on offense.  The Wild are giving 2 or less goals a game on average.  Add a couple of good net-minders, and you have the makings of yet another under.

Last night, Charlotte ended a nine-game Under run. Unfortunately for them, it came in a 119-111 loss to Utah. The Hornets, who are without LaMelo Ball for the remainder of the season, are one of four teams in the league out of playoff contention.

Cleveland is top four in the East and has the second best scoring differential in the league. So, on paper, this should be an easy win for the Cavaliers. But they are coming off a 119-115 loss to Miami Friday night.

The Cavs played two straight in Miami, winning the first game. Now they’ll be in Charlotte for another couplet. 

I’m expecting points in this one. That may seem strange with Cleveland leading the league in scoring defense and Charlotte being the top Under team. But we saw 230+ points in each team’s last game. This number is too low.

When these teams met back in November, it was a 132-122 final, won by Cleveland. And that was with the teams combining to go a horrid 22 of 73 from three. Take the Over here. 10*

Don’t go expecting many points in this Atlantic 10 Tournament Final. It’s all on the line this afternoon for both Virginia Commonwealth (the A-10 regular season champion) and Dayton (the preseason favorite). Neither team has done enough to earn an at-large spot in the NCAA Tournament. So both need to win here. 

VCU is 17th in the country in defensive efficiency. Dayton is a not-too-shabby 56th. 

Dayton also plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country (352nd out of 363 teams). Their games only average 62.6 possessions. VCU isn’t too far ahead of that at 68.2. 

We’ve seen some lights out shooting from both teams in this tournament, but my view is that it will halt Sunday. Dayton shot 60% against Fordham yesterday and will regress hard from that number here. VCU has been scoring considerably more than its season average the last seven games and is also due for some offensive regression.

The teams split the two regular season meetings, each winning on the road. Those games saw 120 and 125 total points scored. 10*

I like the Under in what promises to be the most meaningful game between the Kings and Suns in some time.

Sacramento is a surprising second in the West at the moment, tied with Memphis. They are 2.5 games ahead of Phoenix, who is in fourth.

The Kings have yet to beat the Suns this year, losing to them 122-117 and 120-109. 

The Suns haven’t had much trouble scoring without Kevin Durant (injured), putting up 130+ points in consecutive games. But they are probably in line for some offensive regression here.

Same with the Kings - who have made almost 54% of their field goal attempts the past five games. 10*

I like the Under in tonight’s ACC Tournament Final. Both Duke and Virginia are going to make the NCAA Tournament irregardless of this outcome. So it’s basically just pride (and an ACC Championship!) on the line.

Expect Duke to be motivated, however. The Blue Devils were wronged in the previous meeting with Virginia as they should have won outright in regulation. But a foul call against Virginia was overtuned, a decision the ACC later admitted the officials got wrong. 

Even with overtime, the teams still only combined for 131 total points. (Virginia won 69-62 as 6.5-point favorite).

Virginia was an incredibly efficient 24 of 40 on two-point field goal attempts in that game. I do not see that happening again tonight.

Virginia also has a top 10 scoring defense in the country, so Duke’s offense should be held in check as well. 10*

The Golden Knights are on the road against a very good Hurricanes side.  Vegas plays a close, tight-checking game on the road and will likely have Adin Hill back in net , a plus based on his recent play. The under is 11-2-1 in the Knights' latest away games.  The Knights have a top eight goals against average this year, but might be outmatched by the Hurricanes" Number two defense. Andersen should be in net on Saturday.  He has allowed just 1 goal in his last two starts.  The under has also dominated the Canes recent home games, 5-0-1 in their last six.

The total for this game is just average, too high for a pair of defense-first teams with solid net minders.  Take the Under all the way to the bank.

The Ducks are an all round poor team, worst or close to it in every category this season, but they have been managing to hold the score down in most of their recent games.  Much of this is due to their goalie, Gibson, who has played very well in a losing cause most nights.  They don't have a lot of quack on offense and just one game has gone over in their last 6 appearances.

The 4-6 Flames have face tough competition lately.  They got a shutout from Markstrom in their last game.  Perhaps his play will turnaround down the stretch.  The Flames will need him in prime form for any chance at a wild card spot.  4 of the Flames last 6 games have also gone under.  Calgary has a slightly better than average defense but they've had trouble scoring lately.   They won't likely face much of an offensive thrust from the Ducks.  I am wagering on a lower total on Friday night.  Take the Ducks and Flames to go under.

Engulfed in controversy, top seed Alabama begins its SEC Tournament journey on Friday, facing a Mississippi State team that had to go to overtime yesterday to get by Florida.

It’s not always the case, but generally I like to look at the Under the game after a team went to overtime. Sometimes the betting public just looks at the final score and is unaware the game even went to OT. In the case of Miss State, the score was tied 57-57 at the end of regulation yesterday. That would have been an easy Under (total closed 131) if not for the extra five minutes of basketball.

Miss State has now gone Over in five straight, so this O/U line has been bet up. I don’t agree with that move at all.

Alabama is #4 in the country in defensive efficiency. Miss State is #6! 

The Crimson Tide like to play fast (#2 in adjusted tempo), but Miss State goes very slow (#333 in adj tempo). If the Bulldogs are able to slow this game down, then it should be an easy Under. The last time these teams played, they combined for just 129 points and 8 for 43 shooting from three. (Bama won 66-63).  10*

Indiana has turned things around a bit by going 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS over its last seven games. They have to love the fact that Houston, who has the worst record in the NBA, is up next on the schedule.

But I wouldn’t want to lay this many points with the Pacers. The Rockets also did just win a couple of games recently and that counts for something, even if both were against the Spurs.

Hard not to like the Over here as Indiana’s last game ended up 147-143 (loss to Philadelphia). There was no overtime.

Houston allows 121.3 points/game on the road, so the Pacers should have no problems scoring.

Indiana can obviously be sieve as well. They allow 117.9 points/game for the year. So Houston should score too. 10*

New Jersey has no trouble scoring goals but their defense has been shaky lately and in spite of a 7-3 record they are still giving up too many goals. New Jersey has seen 7 straight games go over.  Their main man in net, Vanacek, has struggled, with just an .821 save % in his last 5 starts. The Devils are  one of the very best road teams, facing a Capitals team that is only barely over .500 at home.  The Capitals haven't won many home games lately and are just 1-5 vs good teams.  Kuemper has played well behind a very depleted Caps' defensive corps, but has been facing a ton of shots in recent action. As far as the Capitals' scoring goes, any time you have Ovechkin, you have potential for offense.  I expect another high scoring game on Thursday.  Take the Devils and Capitals to go over the total.

Cleveland needed overtime to escape with a win over Boston on Monday. Normally, beating the Celtics would be cause for celebration. But because Boston chose to rest so many players for that game, the Cavs were left feeling more relieved than anything.

Since that game went to OT, the 118-114 final score is a bit misleading. The game was tied 109-109 at the end of regulation.

Cavs’ PG Donovan Mitchell averages more than 20 points/game against every NBA team, but he hasn’t been that great against Miami in the past, averaging only 21.8 points. In two previous meetings this season, Mitchell was held to 13 and 16 points.

These are the two top scoring defenses in the NBA. Cleveland allows 106.6 points/game while Miami allows 109.1. 

So I anticipate a low-scoring contest tonight. Miami got 59 points from its bench in a wild 130-128 win over Atlanta two nights ago. That’s certainly not happening again. 10*

The ACC was not particularly strong this season, so you can imagine the quality of teams we’re getting in the first round of the conference tournament. 

Georgia Tech finished 14-17 SU but the Yellow Jackets have covered the spread in eight straight games. Florida State is 9-22 SU and was pretty woeful down the stretch. The Seminoles are 2-9 SU and ATS L11 games.

While I might lean to Ga Tech here, the Under is the better play. The Yellow Jackets’ last five DI games have all gone Over, thanks to them shooting far better than normal. They’ve averaged 79.8 points on 47.5% shooting. For the season, this team shoots below 40% away from home while averaging 65.9 points/game.

FSU is no offensive juggernaut either. Expect them to struggle mightily at the offensive end as GT allows opponents to make just 29.9% of 3PA.

The Under is 39-19-1 in the Seminoles’ previous 59 neutral site games. This number is far too high. 10*

These are the two worst teams in the NBA. Houston is 13-49 and has lost 11 straight games. San Antonio actually has a worse point differential, but has won two straight (after losing 14 in a row) and is now 16-47 on the year.

I expect no defense to be played in this game. The Spurs are the worst defensive team in the league in terms of points allowed, giving up 122.0 per game. The Rockets aren’t far behind at 118.5 points/game allowed. 

The Over has hit in five of the last six meetings between these two teams.

The Over is also 16-5 the Spurs’ last 21 times off an ATS win. (They not only won, but obviously covered their last game as a six-point home dog against Indiana). 

This is just the third time all season that the Spurs have gone Under in three straight games. They’ve never gone Under in four straight. 10*

Charlotte comes into Friday night’s home game vs. Orlando having gone Under in five straight. While much of the focus right now is on how the Hornets’ offense will perform without Lonzo Ball (out for the season), looking at recent results it’s actually been the Hornets’ defense that’s primarily responsible for the string of Unders.

Over those last five games, the Hornets have allowed an average of just 107.4 points/game. This is well below their season average of 118.2 points/game allowed. Needless to say, I believe defensive regression is on the horizon for Charlotte.

At the offensive end, where they put up just 91 points in a loss to Phoenix Wednesday, the Hornets get a favorable matchup here facing an Orlando team that has allowed 121 or more points in each of its last three losses. Wednesday saw the Magic give up 139 to Milwaukee. 

Charlotte may not be Milwaukee, but they did shoot well (54.3%) the last time they faced Orlando. That game ended up as a 119-113 final, won by the Magic, who were two-point underdogs.

No matter who comes out ahead this time, I expect this game to make it Over the total. Charlotte is 4-0 to the Over the last four times they’ve been off a double digit loss at home. This O/U is much lower than where the number closed (236.5) for last month’s meeting. 10*

In what was the final game of their annual “Rodeo Road Trip,” the Spurs ended a 16-game losing streak on Tuesday by beating the shorthanded Jazz 102-94 as 9.5-point underdogs. Not only was it San Antonio’s first road win since December, it also marked the first time this season that they won a game in which they were trailing entering the fourth quarter! 

The rare SU victory was largely a byproduct of the Jazz not just being shorthanded, but also shooting a season-low 35.3% from the floor. I am not expecting the Spurs to repeat that kind of effort on the defensive end tonight as they are dead last in the league in defensive efficiency.

The Jazz made just five field goals the entire fourth quarter against a team that allows 122.4 points/game for the season.

Indiana has covered four straight with the only SU loss coming in OT against Boston (142-138). But they too carry a bottom five defensive rating. So I’m expecting a real high-scoring affair tonight in the Alamo.

In the first home game back after such a long trip, I can’t imagine San Antonio will play anything close to “good defense.” When these teams met back in the second game of the season, the final score was 137-134 and there was no overtime! Indiana is coming off a 124-122 win against Dallas. Something else to consider: both of these teams are top four in the league in pace. So there’s going to be plenty of possessions, not much defense and it’s not like this O/U is uncharacteristic for either team. 10* 

The 25th and 26th ranked offense  meet up when the Wild host the Islanders on Tuesday.  The two teams sport top ten defenses and PKs, so goals may be scarce. It has been three straight unders for the Islanders who are missing their main scorer in Barzal.  Minnesota has gone under the total in eight of nine games The Wild are just a very defense-driven club. 

Minnesota's Gustavsson held the Leafs to two goals in his last appearance, and has held the opposition to two or less goals in six of seven games.  The Isles net-minder Sorokin has allowed just 2.4 goals a game this year, and has a .937 save % in his last five games.  Look for the Isles and Wild to do what they do best and keep the puck out of the net on Tuesday.  I'm wagering on another Under.

The Avs and Knights both have top ten defenses and middling offenses this year. Vegas plays a tight-checking game on the road with great success.  They are 17-5 away, and nine of their last ten road games have gone under the total. Meantime the Avs have limited the opposition to under 2 goals in 4 of 5 games.  Georgiev has a save % of .960+ in his last two starts.  Hill hasn't played in some days, but he has been very good this season.

The two teams don't usually produce much offense when they meet. If I had to pick a final score based on their history, I'd jump on 3-2.

With a total of six available, I am wagering on the the Avalanche and Golden Knights to go under the total. 

It’s not been a good start to the second half of the NBA regular season from the New Orleans Pelicans, who have dropped two games, 115-110 at Toronto and then 128-106 at New York.

But the Pelicans should at least be thrilled tonight to be back at home, where they have not played in 17 days. Their next three games are also all out on the road.

It was a dismal shooting performance against the Knicks, especially from three (2 of 19). Speaking of dismal shooting performances, the Orlando Magic shot just 38.9% from the field and 20.7% on threes in their loss Saturday to the Indiana Pacers (121-108).

I anticipate we’re going to see better shooting from both teams here on Monday, particularly from three. New Orleans has scored less than its season average of 114.7 points/game in five straight, so they are definitely due some positive regression. I can’t see a sixth straight game with 110 points or fewer. The Pelicans are shooting 37.3% from three at home this season.

Orlando is 16-6 to the Over in non-conference games this year. Those games have averaged 231.3 points. The Magic are also due some positive regression when it comes to their shooting as they’ve been below their season average in points four of the last five games. Take the Over here.

Miami won the Eastern Conference in 2020 while Milwaukee did it in 2021. This year, both teams enter the second half staring up at last season’s EC Champs, Boston. But, heading into the All-Star Break, nobody was hotter than Milwaukee, who has won 12 straight games to move within a game of the top spot in the Conference. Miami is 7th, 10.5 games back of top.

I expect this to be a lot lower-scoring than when these teams played three weeks ago. The final score was Bucks 123 Heat 115. 

There could be some rust coming out of the ASB for both teams. Miami is averaging only 108.3 points/game this season.

Both teams are top four in the league in defensive efficiency (Milwaukee 3rd, Miami 4th). 

But the real key is Giannis being doubtful. Without him, the Bucks’ offensive efficiency drops way off. Wes Matthews and Pat Connaughton are also both out. Miami also likes to play slow. They are 28th in pace. 10* 

The 6-4 Leafs are tough to beat at home with a superlative 22-6 record.  They'll be home to  the Wild who won against the Blue Jackets last night.  It is the third game in four nights for the Wild.  They've won four straight but do struggle when away, just 1-4 in recent road-work.  The Wild have allowed just 5 goals in that winning streak, but have scored just 10.  That is the story of the Wild this season; limited scoring and limited goals allowed.  Gustavvson is in net for the Wild tomorrow.  He has been super-sharp lately, with a .944 save % since the All-star break.

The Leafs are just as good on defense, but with a much more potent offense.  The Under has been the name of the game when these two teams meet in Toronto and when Minnesota is playing on short rest.  Gustavvson has had such a hot hand that I think this game will go true to form.  Take the Wild and Leafs to go under on Friday.

Because both teams have been going Over the total regularly of late, I feel we’re getting a great number here as Abilene Christian takes on Grand Canyon in late night WAC action Friday. Now is the time to play these teams to go Under the total.

Abilene Christian has gone Over in six straight games. But four of those totals were set at less than 140. 

Grand Canyon has gone Over in 11 of its last 12 games, the one exception being last Saturday’s loss out in Seattle. Again though, most of their totals have been set well below this number. In fact, only 2 of the 12 games had a total above 140.0

As we saw in their last game, Abilene Christian can struggle defensively. But - because Thursday’s scheduled game vs. New Mexico State was a forfeit, the Wildcats have had plenty of time to prepare for tonight’s matchup and “get right” defensively.

After losing at Seattle last Saturday, Grand Canyon lost again Wednesday as a 12-point home favorite. I expect them to play more cautiously tonight and by that, I mean “slower.” The Antelopes are already outside the Top 300 in adjusted tempo. 10*

The Rangers have won six straight games, scoring 31 goals while allowing 17.  They continue to play on the road, where they are now 16-5, facing the Oilers on Friday night.  The Oilers who were pressing for 1st in their division, are just 2-3 since the All-star break.  Their league's best offense and Power Play have put up some high numbers, but they have also given up 14 goals in 3 games.  With their recent offensive surge, the Rangers have moved into the top ten teams on offense, but the power surge appears to have come at the expense of more goals allowed than normal. The free-er style sure hasn't affected their winning percentage.  Edmonton is worse than average on defense and a bottom feeder (27th ranked)on the penalty kill. Held to just 2 goals in their last game, look for the Oilers to bounce back on offense.  Shesterkin has under-performed since the All-star break, with an .880 save % in his last three games.  Oilers' net minder Skinner allowed 6 goals in his last time.
We've seen five straight overs for the Rangers, and 5 of 6 for Edmonton.  Definitely a trend here. Take the Over again on Friday.

This is a high stakes game out in the Horizon League with the two top teams in that conference facing off here. Milwaukee and Youngstown State each come in sporting 12-4 records in conference play. So the winner here will have first place to themselves. 

Milwaukee won the first meeting 88-75. They were four-point home underdogs and shot 54% from the field. YSU certainly didn’t help themselves by going 4 of 21 from three-point range. 

Both teams can certainly score, but considering the stakes, this is a pretty high total. I expect we’ll see some defense tonight. 

I don’t think that this will be a blowout nor do I see both teams scoring 80 points, which is what you’d basically need for this Over to hit.

Youngstown State is off an 81-78 loss at Cleveland State (peeking ahead?). They are 5-0 to the Under the L5 times they’ve been off a game where they did not cover the spread. 10* 

The Rangers were impressive last time out, winning convincingly against Carolina.  That is five straight victories now, with 4 of 5 going over and the Rangers scoring at least four times in each.  The Canucks are just 1-4 since the break and have allowed a monstrous 25 goals in those five games. They managed just a trio of goals in the two games against Detroit, while allowing eleven.  Since the loss of Demko, Vancouver's goal tending has been exceptionally poor, even allowing for a 31st ranked defense and the league's worst PK in front of them.  I do expect something of a bounce back from the Canucks.  They'll face Shesterkin in net, but he has been just average since the break.  It is the offense, with the addition of Tarasenko, that has been overachieving lately.
The Rangers are a powerhouse on the road, going 15-5 to date this season.  The Canucks have been equally bad at home or away.  Offense is not usually the issue for the Canucks.  They managed three goals against the Rangers last time out, but are forever playing from behind.  This is a great situation for the high-octane Rangers offense to run up the score again.  Wednesday's best bet is for the total to go o

These have been two of the coldest teams in the entire of NBA of late. San Antonio has lost 13 in a row and just covered for the first time since January 20th (as a 16-point underdog in Cleveland). Charlotte just won for the first time in February. Prior to that, the Hornets had lost seven in a row.

I expect very little defense to be played Wednesday in this battle of also-rans. 

The Spurs have the worst defensive rating in the league.They are giving up an average of 125 points/game on the road while letting the opposition shoot 52 percent from the field. 

Charlotte has given up 117 or more points in six straight games. Their last game, which again was a win, ended up 144-138. They shot 63% overall from the field and made 54% from three.

Even if the Hornets can’t come close to matching those percentages tonight, they will put a bunch of points on the board. The Over is 5-0 this season when they face a team from the Southwest Division. 10*

The Wizards have won 8 of their last 11 games and tonight visit the wounded Warriors. No Steph Curry has resulted in the home team losing its last two games. 

Thus, I could certainly understand the urge to take the points in this Monday night NBA matchup. But I think the Under is the better call.

This isn’t the same Warriors team without Curry. They were just 12 of 44 from deep in a 109-103 loss to the Lakers Saturday night. That was here at home.

Last month saw these teams combine for 245 points, but 41 of those came from Curry.

With the former MVP on the sidelines, the total for this game should be way lower. It was 235 with Curry in the lineup last month. His absence is certainly felt in the spread, but there’s definite value playing the Under. 10*

If solid defense wins big games, then KC's best passing offense matches up poorly as it faces the Eagles and their legitimate league's best pass defense in this year's premier situation. Yes, we are talking about Mahomes, but there are enough question marks around the Chiefs' WRs playing at less than full strength as well as Mahomes' ankle issues to suggest that this won't be a Chief's pass attack in top shape. The Eagles absolutely will give Mahomes a much tougher time as far as passer pressure goes.  The Eagles also absolutely will run the ball as they did against SF. They ran on 53% of plays and had a huge 62% in time of possession last in their game (58% on average L3). More of a run game from the Chiefs wouldn't surprise me  this week.  I expect a slower than anticipated game on Sunday with both teams struggling to move the ball as freely than in previous games. I don't expect any more movement on the total, so I am jumping in now and "absolutely" wagering on Super Sunday's total to go under.

The Habs are home to the Oilers in an early Sunday game.  Both teams played and won on Saturday, the Canadiens in OT and the Oilers easily.  That was Montreal's first win in 5 games.  The Habs are 3 games under .500 at home. The Oilers, on the other hand, are 8-2 L10, and are a better team on the road this season.  Tops in offense and Power Play this season, the Oilers are a threat for a high total in every game.  Facing the Canadiens' 28th ranked goals-against and 30th PK, a bevy of Oilers' goals is even more likely.

Skinner likely starts for the Oilers.  He has impressed this year, but his recent results have been mixed.  The Oilers are not always the most dependable team on defense.  Allen will start in net for the Canadiens and has been outright leaky of late.

Edmonton is 4-1 against Montreal in recent meetings and all of those games have gone over the total I don't believe that Sunday's game will be any different.  Wager on the Canadiens and Oilers to go Over.

I like the Over here. Last night’s Miami result is giving us some good value.

The Heat won Friday, but it was not pretty as they beat the Rockets 97-95 as 12-point favorites. That obviously went way Under. (Total closed 220.5). 

There should be more offensive success in this game against an Orlando team that gives up nearly 115 points/game. 

The Magic have played two straight low scoring games and have had three in a row go Under overall. But they are 6-1 Over on Saturdays this season.

The Magic’s last game, a 115-104 win over Denver, was 65-55 at halftime. 10*

This is an UGLY matchup with the worst team in the NBA (Spurs) taking on a Pistons team that is in the bottom four. While we’ve seen both teams struggle to score recently, it’s not like either is known for playing much defense. So let’s go Over the total here.

Detroit is 29th (next to last) in the league in defensive efficiency. Would you like to guess who is last? That would be San Antonio. 

Neither of these teams play slow. In fact, both rank in the top 10 in pace. Combine that with the two worst defensive teams in terms of points allowed per possession and we’ve got ourselves a recipe for an Over. 

Oddsmakers are unfazed by the fact neither team scored 100 points in their last game. The Pistons had a horrific shooting night in Cleveland, including 8 of 32 from three. Three-point variance is something we can count on here, especially considering SA is allowing teams to hit over 40% from behind the arc.

The Pistons are also “due” for an Over after six straight Unders. The Spurs have allowed 127 or more points in 10 of their last 14 games. They allowed “only” 112 at Toronto Wednesday. That’s notable because you’d have to go back to Jan 6th to find the last time the Spurs went back to back games without allowing 120 or more points. 10* 

The Rangers are usually a defense-driven team and the Kraken have been underachieving on offense with just a single goal scored in the two games since the break.  Sounds like an under?  But, wait! The addition of Tarasenko to the Rangers' offense is a very fine and inspiring plus.  The Kraken usually have a potent offense; it is defense and goal-tending that can be an issue. NY has been surprisingly free-wheeling since the break, scoring nine goals while allowing seven.  The Kraken are due to score more than a goal tonight.  Seattle will also play their third game in four nights.  Usually it is the defense that struggles in such a situation.  Take the over in this match-up.

The Nuggets just put up 146 in their last game, a blowout win over Minnesota. Over their last six games, there’s been only one time where Denver and the opposition failed to combine for 235 or more points. That was a 128-98 loss at Minnesota where Jokic didn’t play. 

Orlando’s last game was low scoring as they lost 102-98 to the Knicks. But the Magic are 16-5 to the Over this season when facing a team from the Western Conference. 

Three of the last four games have seen the Magic shoot worse than their season average from three. Denver lets teams hit 38.1% from behind the arc on the road. So Orlando should find success from downtown in this matchup.

In fact, the Nuggets allow teams to shoot better than 50% overall when they are the road team.

The Over is 8-3 L11 Magic home games as well as 5-0-1 in Denver’s last six overall. 10*

Golden State just put up 141 in a win over Oklahoma City Monday night, but remember there’s no Steph Curry (out through the All-Star Break) and I just don’t see a repeat of that offensive effort from the Warriors tonight.

Against the Thunder, Golden State shot 57.7% overall and 52% from three. Klay Thompson made 12 threes himself. I’m on the record as saying none of that will be repeated here.

How much of a scoring decrease we see here from the Warriors remains to be seen. But considering this team is just 7-20 on the road, averaging 116.6 points/game, it should be rather substantial.

Portland saw a streak of four straight games with 120 or more points broken on Monday. They finished with just 108 in a blowout loss at the hands of Milwaukee. 

None of the previous five meetings between these teams would have gone Over this total. The Blazers are 29-11 Under following a game where they allowed 125 or more points. 10*

We’ve got some late night action in the Mountain West with New Mexico hosting Nevada. This is expected to be a high-scoring affair, but I think oddsmakers set the total too high.

Now the last time these teams met, it was a 97-94 final. That game went to double overtime. It was tied 78-78 at the end of regulation. We need a lower-scoring 40 minutes tonight, obviously, and I think we’ll get it.

New Mexico was actually the last unbeaten team in the country. But they’ve lost four of nine since that 14-0 start and have scored below their season average in all nine of those contests.

Nevada has seen four of its last five games ended with 141 or less total points scored. 

I know it’s scary to go with the Under when both teams have been regularly going Over of late. But this O/U line looks to be inflated. New Mexico holds teams to 30.3% from three-point range and Nevada only averages 68.2 points/game on the road. 10*

Sacramento suffered an embarrassing defeat on Sunday, going down 136-104 at the hands of New Orleans. That was a Pelicans team playing without Brandon Ingram, and in the second night of a back to back.

So it’s tempting to play the Kings here as they face the lowly Rockets. But there’s no indication (yet) that De’Aaron Fox will return. Nevertheless, I do expect there to be no shortage of scoring in this game.

Jalen Green is back for Houston and their defense only gets worse with him on the floor. In Saturday’s loss at Oklahoma City, the Rockets gave up 153 points and 1.577 points per possession in non-garbage time. That’s atrocious.

Considering the Kings just allowed 136 to an undermanned Pelicans squad, defense seems like will be “optional” in this Monday night NBA tilt.

In fact, the last time these teams met, they combined for 253 points. That was on January 13th, so not long ago. Two days before that, they combined for 250. This is an easy call on the Over. 10*

Milwaukee scored only 106 in its last game, which is far from the norm for them. We're talking about a team that had previously scored 124 or more in six of eight games. The Bucks' offensive efficiency, over the last two weeks, is where you'd expect it to be.

The Over is 14-8 this season in Bucks' games where the total is 220 or higher. I anticipate them scoring a ton tonight.

Now Miami only scored 104 points in its last game. They've topped 110 just once in the last seven games, however, I think we can expect more than normal tonight given the Bucks' involvement.

Two head to head meetings in January failed to produce more than 210 points. Neither Giannis Antekounmpo nor Khris Middleton played in those games though. Take the Over. 10*

The Bulls and Hornets have already played twice this season. Both games went Under the total. I expect this one to be higher scoring though (as, obviously, so do the oddsmakers).

While five of the last six Bulls games have gone Under the total and four of the last five Hornets games have stayed Under as well, we are looking at a pair of teams more than capable of scoring - or allowing - a lot of points on any given night.

Charlotte takes a lot of threes and has scored 122 and 115 points its last two games. I’m confident they can score in that range again tonight.

The issue for the Hornets is they allow 120.5 points/game on the road. They just gave up 124 at Milwaukee.

Chicago was just 4 of 25 from three the last time they played Charlotte. But that was on the road and I expect much better shooting tonight. Take the Over.

The expectation for this game is that New Mexico and Utah State are going to put up a lot of points. I understand that. New Mexico is averaging 82.4 points/game this season while Utah State puts up 79.9. 

But I like the Under here. The number is just too high. 

Looking through the results, New Mexico has had just one game all season close with a total higher than 156 points. That was January 9th vs. Oral Roberts and it stayed Under.

Similarly, Oral Roberts is the only Utah State opponent this season where the total was this high. 

Utah State is #1 in the country in three-point percentage, but can they really continue hitting above 40%? I don’t think so. Meanwhile, with New Mexico, only nine teams in the country take a fewer percentage of total field goal attempts from beyond the arc. 10*

The Clippers sat both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George Sunday in Cleveland. Therefore, their five-game win streak went “bye bye” in a (somewhat) predictable 122-99 loss. 

It looks like both Leonard and George will play tonight, so most bettors are probably going to want to lay the short number. But I’m wary of a Bulls team that’s won five of its last six at home.

But I don’t want to back the Bulls getting so few points. Therefore, we turn to the total, which is too high in my opinion. That’s probably because the last four Clippers’ games all went Over the total. But they remain bottom eight in the league in pace and I suspect we’ll see better defense tonight than what we saw on Sunday. 

Chicago put up 128 in a win on Saturday where they shot almost 60% from the floor. No way they come close to shooting it that well again. The Clippers are also due for some shooting regression. 

The Under is 4-1 in the Bulls’ last five games as well as 5-0 the last five times they’ve been off an ATS win (as they are here). 10*

It looks like a tall order here for Orlando as they will be facing a Philadelphia team that has won 20 of its last 24 games and seven straight. Over the last three seasons, the Magic are 0-9 vs. the 76ers. 

This is the third meeting of the season between the two teams. The previous two were in Orlando with Philly winning by scores of 133-103 and 107-99. 

I think this will be more like the first one, which was low-scoring. Yes, the NBA’s leading scorer Joel Embiid is coming off a 47-point game for the Sixers. But after their last three games all went Over, I think this Sixers’ offense is set to cool down some.

Orlando fell over the weekend to Chicago, 128-109 as 2.5-point home favorites. They are 11-3 Under this season after suffering a double digit loss.

Philadelphia is fourth in the NBA in points allowed and holds opponents to 47.4% shooting. I’m not at all concerned about Orlando putting up a lot of points tonight. Above all else though, we’re talking two teams that have both shot & allowed over 50% their last five games. That’s not going to continue. 10*

New Orleans is in a free fall, having lost seven straight while going 1-5-1 ATS. They just lost three in a row at home, so maybe hitting the road will bring a change in fortune? 

Except for the fact the Pelicans are facing Milwaukee tonight. The Bucks have won three straight and five of six.

In four of those five wins, the Bucks have scored more than 130 points. They dropped 141 at Indiana Friday night. They scored 150 in Detroit earlier in the week.

Of course, the Bucks also gave up 130+ in those two games. I see no reason why tonight’s contest won’t also be high scoring and go Over the total.

The Over is 16-8 in Pelicans’ road games this season. It’s the same record when the Bucks are at home. Even high totals don’t matter when Milwaukee is involved. The Over is 8-2 when the O/U line is 230+ for them.  10*

Auburn just had a five-game win streak snapped on Wednesday, losing to Texas A&M 79-63 as a 3.5 point home favorite. Now they hit the road and head into unfamiliar territory as part of this SEC vs. Big 12 Challenge.

While West Virginia is having a “down” year, Morgantown is still not an easy place to win at, if you are the road team. WVU also carries a lot of respect here. This will be the third straight home game where they go off as the favorite against a Top 25 opponent. They beat TCU here, but lost to Texas.

Auburn isn’t as good as either TCU or Texas, nor is the SEC as good as the Big 12.

Furthermore, WVU just clobbered Texas Tech on the road earlier this week, winning 76-61 as a 3.5 point dog. I’ll take that as a sign Bob Huggins' team is starting to “figure things out.” 

Yet, I don’t want to lay points against an Auburn team coming off a bad loss. So let’s play the Under instead. It’s cashed in three straight WVU games and Auburn is shooting under 30% for the year from three. But the Tigers can defend. They are holding teams below 39% overall from the field. 8* 

The Raptors have covered the spread in each of their last three games and just started what will eventually be a seven-game road tip by beating Sacramento 113-95 as a three-point underdog. That was after beating the Knicks at home, 125-116, on Sunday.

Golden State has alternated wins and losses over its last seven contests and is coming off a wild last-second win over Memphis. But as 122-120 winners of that game, the Warriors did not cover as 3.5-point favorites.

We know how bad Golden State has been on the road this year, but at home they are 18-6 and putting up 119.2 points/game. That being said, the O/U line for tonight looks high to me. The market seems to agree.

Despite those numbers mentioned above, the Under is 10-3-1 in the Warriors’ last 14 home games. The total for tonight is higher than the average number of points scored in games here this season.

I also expect Toronto to not shoot as well as they have been recently. The L5 games have seen the Raptors make 49% of their FG attempts. For the season, this is a team shooting only 45% from the floor. Take the Under. 10* 

A late night affair in the Pac 12 sees two teams on four-game Over streaks facing off as Washington hosts Arizona State.

Arizona State got off to a great start to the year, but no one really believed in them and that lack of belief is starting to bear out. The Sun Devils have lost two in a row, albeit to UCLA and USC. 

Meanwhile, after losing five in a row, Washington was able to win three straight, all against bottom teams in the Pac 12. But then the Huskies lost badly on Saturday, 86-61 at Utah.

ASU may not be an elite team overall, but they are top 50 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

I think this number is too high due to Washington getting blitzed in its last game, something that won’t happen here at home. Play the Under. 8* 

Over the course of this entire season, the Bulls have generally been a “streaky” team. Rarely, do they not win or lose multiple games in a row. So, coming off a 116-110 loss to Indiana (where they blew a 21-point lead), now is probably not the time to back this team. 

But the Bulls are facing Charlotte tonight. The Hornets certainly aren’t any good; they own the league’s third worst win percentage and are 4-12 straight up/4-11-1 against the spread since Christmas. I certainly don’t want to back them here either.

But I do want to play the Over. Charlotte has allowed a minimum of 116 points over each of its last nine games. They just gave up 128 to Phoenix on Tuesday. The Suns were able to shoot 55% from three in that game.

There are only two teams in the league - Detroit and San Antonio - that are allowing more points per game than the Hornets. 

While Chicago has gone Under in three straight, their last five games have still averaged more than 230 points. I think we get Over this number tonight as the Over has hit the last five times the Hornets have been off a double digit loss, not to mention 8 of the last 10 times they’ve hosted the Bulls. 10*

I think we’re in store for a pretty low-scoring affair tonight as two of the best Mountain West teams hook it up. San Diego State is hosting Utah State. SDSU has won eight of nine to surge into first place. They are deserved favorites here, but are also just 1-7 ATS at home this season.

Utah State has won six of eight, but has failed to cover three straight. On paper, the Aggies look to have the offensive edge in this matchup, but SDSU is holding teams to 60.9 points/game when here at home.

This is a high total for a game involving San Diego State. Only twice this season have they seen a higher O/U line. Both of those games stayed Under.

Even for Utah State, the number looks high. Only two of their last six games have seen a higher O/U line and one of those stayed Under.

A recent rash of Overs from both sides has clearly inflated this number. No San Diego State home game has had a total close in the 140 to 144.5 range while the same is true for Utah State road games. Take the Under. 10*

Golden State may be the defending NBA Champions, but right now they are looking up at Memphis in the standings. In fact, the Warriors are only 10th in the West entering Wednesday and a game below .500. The Grizzlies are 31-16 and in second place.

But all of a sudden the Grizz have dropped three straight after previously winning 11 in a row. Two of the losses were close, but then Monday saw them get blown out 133-100 in Sacramento. Ja Morant didn’t play in that game, however.

The Grizzlies defense was atrocious in that game as they let the Kings hit 12 of 13 three-point attempts in the first quarter! Morant being back here won’t solve that issue, especially against a team like the Warriors.

Meanwhile, there hasn’t been a Warriors’ game with fewer than 234 points scored since January 7th. 

So expect plenty of points tonight on ESPN. The Over has hit the last four times Golden State has been off a loss, which they are here. These are two of the six teams in the league currently averaging at least 117 points/game. 10*

While I don’t think this game will be “low scoring,” the O/U line is too high for tonight’s matchup between the Bulls and Hawks. 

Yes, Atlanta has gone Over in four straight and shot 55.5% over its last five games. But can they continue to shoot that well? Probably not! Especially not here when playing for the third time in four nights.

Only one of Chicago’s last five games would have gone Over tonight’s total. They are well rested, having last played on Thursday (in France) against the Pistons. This season, the Bulls are 2-0 to the Under when on three or more days rest.

In the first game back after a long trip, there’s a good chance we see some offensive regression from the Bulls. 10* 

The Islanders have struggled lately, winning just once in their last nine games.  They are generating very little offense and aren't as stingy as they have traditionally been.  Off an overtime road loss, the Leafs are just 5-5 lately, but they are dominant at home, going 17-3 in the Gardens this season.  They have won their last 4 straight games at home, allowing just 4 goals in those wins.  We've had a steady diet of unders from these two teams, not unexpected from two top 10 defenses.  As poor as the Isles have been, Sorokin, today's likely starter has continued to keep the score down. Samsonov has been very strong in the net for Toronto.

  The Leafs are very tough on defense, especially at home, and the two teams have a history of low scoring games when they meet.  Look for the Under trend to continue.

Expect fireworks in the last NBA game on the board tonight. The Lakers last five games have seen an average of more than 240 total points scored. Portland is not far behind at 237 and that’s after a low-scoring 105-95 loss to Philadelphia on Thursday.

There are only three teams in the league that give up more points/game than the Lakers. Those are: Charlotte, Detroit and San Antonio. 

Additionally, the Lakers play at the third fastest tempo in the league, which means more possessions. 

After an awful shooting night against the 76ers, you should look for the Blazers to bounce back offensively. 

The Over is 12-3 when the Lakers face a sub-.500 team. Portland comes in at 21-24 on the year. 10*

I cashed the Under in Gonzaga’s last game, which they LOST 68-67 at home to Loyola Marymount. That winner cleared by more than 20 points as the Zags uncharacteristically shot poorly (just 28.6% from three) and saw their 75-game home win streak come to an end. 

After being held to nearly 20 points below their season-long scoring average, which is still #2 in the nation, Gonzaga should come out firing Saturday night at Pacific, a WCC opponent that they’ve frequently torched in the past. In four of the previous five meetings, as well as 7 of the last 10, the Zags have topped 80 against the Tigers.

Now it takes “two to tango,” so Pacific is going to need to put up some points here as well. Certainly a lot more than the 57 they scored in a loss at San Francisco Thursday night. But that looks to be an outlier effort from the Tigers, who had scored 78 or more in each of the previous four games, all of which went Over the total.

The Over is also 21-9 in the L30 Pacific home games. 10*

The last team the 2-8 Canucks beat at home was the Avalanche.  Since then, the Avs have gone 4-2, and scored a ton of goals, especially in their last three games (17).  They are a solid road team and face a Canucks group that is struggling on and off the ice.  Considering their make-up, the Avs are surprisingly poor on offense this year, averaging just 3.1 goals a game, but they appear to be waking up lately.  They do have a better power play, and are a top ten defense.  The Canucks can put the puck in the net (3.4 goals/game), but their defense is a woeful 31st ranked, and they have the worst PK in the league.  It is hard to tell which net-minder will start for Vancouver, but both are usually exposed by poor defensive play. 

The Canucks have historically played well vs the Avs and have won both games so far this season.  Today's best bet is the Over, considering the Avalanches' recent scoring blitz and the Canucks' dependably poor defense and potent offense.

Miami has crept back up into the top six in the Eastern Conference and tonight will head to Dallas to face a team that’s top five out West. While the Heat have won 4 of 5 and 7 of their last 10, the Mavs are slipping; dropping five of six and three straight.

After their latest loss, which came here at home to the Atlanta Hawks by a score of 130-122, you have to figure Dallas is going to look to “buckle down” defensively. “It’s like a shootaround,” head coach Jason Kidd said of his team’s defense (or rather lack of it) in the last game.  

But rather than back the home team here, I’m going with the Under.

Miami is #2 in the NBA in scoring defense, giving up just 108.6 points/game. They’ve allowed fewer than 100 points in two of their last three games. 

In terms of pace, these are two of the slowest teams in the entire NBA. Dallas is 29th in pace while Miami is 24th. All signs point to this being a low-scoring game. 10*

Gonzaga can certainly score at will as we saw on Saturday when they dropped 115 points on poor Portland and won by 40. That was the third time in the last month the Zags hit the century mark and fourth if you include a non-board game vs. Eastern Oregon. They are #1 in the country, averaging 86.9 PPG. 

But, it was just last Thursday where we saw the Under hit in a game between Gonzaga and BYU. I think that tonight Loyola Marymount can keep Gonzaga’s scoring in relative check.

Now LMU scored 98 themselves in a win over San Diego last Saturday. Certainly, points are to be expected here. But this number is high. In fact it’s the largest O/U for any LMU game so far this season. 

With the opponent and the Over being 6-0 in Lions’ road games, I understand there may be some trepidation in playing this Under. But be aware that not only did Gonzaga go Under vs. BYU, but also the two games before as well. None of the three saw more than 157 total pts scored. 

The game vs. San Diego was also LMU’s highest scoring of the season so far. There’s value here in the Under. 10*

The Celtics and Hornets just played Friday. It was a rare loss for me, as I took the points, but Charlotte just didn’t have enough in the tank down the stretch. They did have a 16-point lead in the first half and were up at the break, only to be outscored 60-40 in the second half. This afternoon, I’ll be taking a different approach. 

There were 228 total points scored in Friday’s game, which was just shy of the total (closed 232.5). 

I am very confident that Boston will have no issue putting a bunch of points on the board in today’s game. Not only do they carry the #1 offensive rating in the league this season, but Charlotte has now allowed 121 or more points in three straight and six of its last eight games.

So, really, what this comes down to is: can the Hornets score enough? I think they will. They were a pretty woeful 8 of 27 from three on Friday, which is below their season percentage.

Boston attempted 53 threes on its own Friday. That’s a lot, but not out of the ordinary when facing Charlotte. They launched 52 3PA back in November vs. the Hornets and poured in 140 total points. Take the Over here. 8*

The Bengals and the Ravens put up 53 points last week but that included two costly picks and a "fumble-six" by the Ravens' rookie QB.  Look for the Ravens to go back to their usual rush-first style and slo-ow the game down this week.  Burrow has had his struggles against the Baltimore defense this year, and was held to just 200 passing yards, short receptions and a poor completion rate last week.  The Ravens haven't been able to put up many points with Huntley under center, and the Bengals are tough to run against. Baltimore's tough defense, with a dry run last week, will tighten the screws on Burrow and limit points more successfully this week.  Take Sunday's game to go under the total!

The embattled 4-6 Canucks are 0-2 on this road trip.  They can score but they can't hold a lead, allowing 12 goals and scoring 8 in their last two games.  They are 30th in goals against and worst in the league on the PK.  Add a sub-.500 road record and an 0-4 recent record against the Lightning, and a Canucks win seems unlikely.

The Lightning lost 2 straight on the road, but bounced back with a big home win against the Blues last time out.  Tampa Bay is very tough to beat at home.  With a top five offense and power play, they could have a field day against either of the Canucks' inexperienced 2nd string goalies.  The Canucks give out high risk chances and power play goals like Hallowe'en candy, but don't underestimate their offense.  The over is 23 -14 in Canucks' games this season.  Expect a high scoring game tonight  and go with the over again.

San Jose has lost it's way with just three wins in ten games.  They beat the Coyotes last night, but wins on consecutive nights is unlikely, especially against a 7-3 Kings team who are very good  at home.  LA won in a surprisingly low scoring game the last time these two teams met, but the Kings have been hot lately, beating both the Oilers and the Knights, and scoring 6 and 5 goals respectively.  The Kings' forte is offense and power play, and while their defense is below average, it is not nearly as poor as the The Sharks' who are  28th in goals allowed.

LA has six players with 10 or more goals, plus decent secondary scoring.  The Sharks' +/- is very shaky, neither goaltender is especially sharp, and they will play two nights in a row with travel thrown in.  Look for the Kings to be a lot tougher on the Sharks than the last time these two teams met.  The Sharks aren't terrible at putting the puck in the net either.  With  the Sharks averaging three goals a game, and the Kings on a tear, look for this game to go over the total.

This is the second night of a back to back for Orlando. They’ll encounter a Portland team that should be pretty angry after it dropped all three games on a recently completed road trip.

The Magic just gave up 136 points to Sacramento last night, so I understand that betting the Under might seem a little bit “scary.” But the key takeaway from Monday’s loss is that the Kings made a franchise record 23 three pointers. Portland, with its average offense, won’t come close to that number.

In fact, the Blazers just put up only 106, 99 and 105 points in those three road losses. They do average a lot more than that at home (118.5 points/game), but in the first game back may struggle a bit. 

Something else to consider is that Orlando only averages 106.5 points/game on the road. 

I just think that this number is way too high, especially when you consider that the Blazers have gone Under in seven of their last eight. 10*

With the College Football National Championship front and center, there’s not much College Basketball on tonight’s docket. But this is a game worth paying attention to.

New Mexico was actually the last unbeaten team in the country, but has now dropped two in a row including an 84-77 decision here at home to UNLV Saturday night. I thought that result was undeserved and the Lobos were the better team. Nevertheless, they come into Monday looking to avoid a third consecutive defeat as favorites.

Oral Roberts has won 10 straight, but three of the last five victories have been by exactly three points. 

I’m looking at the total here as we’ve got a very high number. Both teams are Top 32 in tempo and ORU is Top 20 in offensive efficiency. The last six New Mexico games have all gone Over the total.

Yet so much has to “go right” to get Over a number this large. Note that NONE of those L6 NM games would have gone Over this number (though the last one would have if this line trickles down any further).  Three of the last four games involving Oral Roberts saw 145 or less total points scored. I’m on the Under.

The Grizzlies just keep winning as they ran their streak to six straight with last night’s 123-118 victory over Utah. That win streak will be expected to continue here as Memphis is a double digit favorite at home over San Antonio.

Should be noted that the Grizzlies did not cover the spread in last night’s game. I have no interest in laying double digits with them in the second night of a back to back. So let’s check out the total, which seems a little high given the Spurs have the third worst offensive rating in the league.

Memphis’ own offensive rating is just middle of the pack (16th).

This number is likely inflated due to the fact the Over is also on a 10-1 run in Spurs’ games. The last three Grizzlies’ games have also all gone Over. But there has yet to be a time all season where the Grizz went Over in four straight.

Certainly worth paying attention to is the fact that Ja Morant was a late scratch for the Grizzlies last night due to right thigh soreness. San Antonio was without three starters in its last game. 10*