After a pair of high scoring games, I expect Sunday's Guardians/Rays  match-up to be a much lower scoring affair.  The starters, Bibee and Eflin have been especially tough to score on in recent action.  Bibee is 4-0 with and ERA of 1.70 in his last 7 games.  What has he done lately?  Only shut out the Jays over 7 innings pitched.  Eflin has been terrific in his two August starts, allowing just a single run over 13 innings.  He is 10-2, with an ERA of 2.49 in home starts this season and has yet to walk anyone this month.  Neither team has faced the opposing starter to date.  Tampa (.274/.810 OPS) is a top 7 offense over the last two weeks, however the Guardians are a low-flying 29th at .218/.594 OPS.  Both teams are known for their bullpens, but neither relief corps is performing especially well.   I expect a very low scoring game in the early going.  Both pitchers are averaging 6+ innings.  Look for the bullpens to hang on.  Take the Guardians and Rays to go under the total.

After a 20 run slug-fest on Friday, I expect Saturday's Cards/Royals total to be far less.  Both left-handed starters are on fine runs.  Matz has been very good since returning, pitching for length and allowing just a pair of runs in his last 4 starts.  Royals rookie Ragans has been equally impressive, giving up just 2 runs in his last three outings and striking out 19(!) in his last two appearances.  Neither bullpen impressed on Friday, but the game was a blow-out early, so both teams' best relievers should be available on Saturday. The Royals are hitting well but generally struggle vs left-handed pitching.  The Cardinals are very average at the moment on offense.  I think the total is slightly inflated after Friday's 12-8 outcome.  Take the total to go under on Saturday.

The Blue Jays are on a 4-game win streak, while the Guardians are on a 3-game losing streak.  Different directions.  The Blue Jays were buyers at the trade deadline, while the Guardians were sellers.  They don’t match up here either.  But when you look at probable pitchers Gausman (2.40 ERA in L5) and Allen (2.20 ERA in L5), they have both been effective lately.  Both bullpens are solid too.  And over their last 10 games the Jays are 1-9 on unders while the Guardians are 2-7-1.  In their last 7 the Jays have 5.1 R/9 while the Guardians have 2.4R/9, the total of which is looking good for an under.  All of these facts add up to a pretty clear conclusion on the total for these two in Wednesday’s game.  Go with the under for these two for a solid play.

Two teams struggling to win (both are 1-4 over their last 5) and struggling at the plate over the last 15 are coming up against a couple of interesting probable starters.  Cueto is only five starts into his return from a long layoff but has shown some mastery with a tiny 0.95 WHIP.  Although this hasn’t translated into wins for him he has pitched a 1 and 2 ER outing.  Ashcraft, the ace of the Reds staff, has been very solid as of late (a 1.89 ERA in July) and an ERA of 2.32 over his last 5 starts. 

Both teams are in the bottom half of the majors in avg. and OPS over the last 15 days.  The Marlins have averaged 3.4 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games while the Reds have averaged 4.6 run/9 innings over the same stretch.

All of the above combined with the Marlins 1-5 record and the Reds 0-6 record in unders over their last 6 games and you have a solid value pick for Wednesday’s game between these two underachievers.  Take the under and enjoy this early win to start your Wednesday plays.

Both of Tuesday's starting pitchers have been terrific in their last three starts.  Kikuchi has allowed just a pair of runs over 17+ innings, while Bibee, the Guardians' rookie, has allowed 5 runs in 18+ innings and has a 1.78 ERA in July.  While the Jays are hitting well lately, the Guardians are dead last in OPS over the last two weeks, and struggle vs left handed pitching.  The Jays haven't faced Bibee previously, and this lineup often struggles when facing a new good pitcher.  Both teams have solid bullpens; the Jays' has been especially impressive lately with an ERA of under 3.00. This could be a closely fought pitchers' duel on Tuesday. Take these two teams, who haven't met since last year, to come out under the total. 

The Giants are 7-3 but it isn't the offense that is winning games for them.  At .210 BA/.624 they are 30th in the league in OPS over the last two weeks and have scored four or less runs in nine of ten games.  The A's are somewhat better at .231/.693, but have trouble scoring as well, with 3 or less runs in their last five games.  Medina starts for Oakland.  The rookie has improved dramatically this season and is off 3 fine starts, allowing just 3 runs total in 15+ innings.  He struck out 27 batters while cutting down on free passes in July. Cobb likely starts for the Giants.  He blanked the A's in late July and finished the month with a 2.42 ERA.  The two teams are averaging 2.9 and 3.9 runs a game over their last seven, making a total look very promising.  The one issue is the A's bullpen, which has not been very dependable this season, but did show well yesterday.  I am wagering on continued poor offense from both teams and taking the Under today. 

Two Western Conference titans will go head-to-head with the top defence in the league and the most experienced defence in the league.  The Lions are 1st or 2nd in 13 team defense categories while the Bombers are 1st or 2nd in 7 team defense categories.  The key category for both is points against where the Lions are 1st and the Bombers are 2nd.  The Lions “D” has “pitched” two shutouts this year and only allowed the Bombers 6 points in their first game in Winnipeg this season.  The Bombers are coming off a bye so they should do a bit better but not enough to get to a high score. 

The Lions will start their 2nd string QB Evans again this week and he hasn’t had great success against defensive coordinator Hall’s Bombers in the past.  So, in spite of these offenses being highly ranked, they will be in tough for this game.

The Lions are 7-1 in their last 8 for unders on the road, and 10-1 for unders in their last 11 vs. the West.  The Bombers are 5-1 in their last 6 for unders vs. teams with a winning record, 5-1 in their last 6 vs. the West, and 4-0 for unders after an ATS loss.  There are many more ways these teams favor unders so it’s safe to say playing the under for this game is a good thing.

These two teams can hit and have been on a tear at the plate lately.  Probable pitchers Sandoval for the Angels and Strider for the Braves have been impressive (especially Strider) and have decent stats but lately they have been involved in very high scoring games.  In the last 5 he has started, Sandoval’s games have resulted in an average total of 11.2 runs while Strider’s have averaged 9.4 runs over the same stretch of games.

Add to that, the fact that these two teams have been productive at the plate over the last 15 days, the Angels have the 4th best OPS in the majors and the Braves have the 2nd best and you can see where this is leading.  Against LH starters the Braves have the best OPS and 2nd best avg. in the majors.  The Angels have the 4th best OPS and 10th best avg. against RH starters.  This seems like a recipe for some serious production at the plate and the results bear that out.  At home the Braves’ games average a total of 10.6 runs/game while the Angels’ games on the road average a total of 9.8 runs/game.  When you put together the Braves average vs LHP (5.9 runs/game) and the Angels average vs RHP ( 5.1 runs/game) you end up with another high total of 11.  In the last 10 head-to-head, these two teams have an over record of 7-3.  All these numbers add up to a great play for the over on this game.  

The Rangers are allowing a whopping 7.3 runs a game over the last week, and that underwhelming bullpen is part of the problem.   Dunning starts today, and while he is having an impressive season, he has struggled in  two of three starts.  Last time out was his worst start of the year. Musgrove has been very solid, but the Rangers are a formidable offense to reckon with. The Padres are starting to hit, climbing to tenth in OPS over the last week.  Today's total is low, but I am wagering on the total to go over when all is said and done.

Both the Tigers and the Marlins have faltered lately.  Probable pitcher Olson for the Tigers and Garrett for the Marlins have also faltered.  In their last three starts, rookie Olson has a 6.00 ERA and Garrett has a staggering 9.23 ERA.  It hasn’t been pretty.  The Tigers’ road games and the Marlins’ home games average totals greater than 8.  Tigers’ games vs a LH starter and Marlins’ games vs a RH starter both average totals greater than 8

For the season, the Tigers average 3.89 runs for /9 and 4.83 runs against/9.  The Marlins average 4.14 runs for /9 and 4.32 runs against/9.  If you take any two of those averages and add them together you will have a total well over 8.  Go with the over on this game and you will be over the moon.

Probable pitchers Abbott for the Reds and Burnes for the Brewers have been on fire lately.  Abbott’s last 5 outings have averaged 6.1 innings pitched and an ERA of 2.00.  Burnes has been even better with a 1.60 ERA in his last 5 starts, also averaging  6.1 innings.  In July his WHIP is a miniscule 0.63. 

In the last 15 days, both teams have been in the bottom fifth of the majors in batting average and OPS.  The Brewers have especially struggled against LHP. 

Starting to look a pretty strong case is being made for an under total.  In their last 8 games over/unders have been 1-7 for the Brewers and 2-6 for the Reds.  Head to head, in their last 10, over/unders have been 3-7 and in their last 5 they have been 0-5.  The recipe for an under looks like it is coming together just fine.

Both these teams had confidence boosting wins last week.  This week each will face a defence in the top half of the league and both offences continue to languish in the bottom quarter of the league. 

Calgary will have put together a package to deal with Ottawa’s QB Crumb who surprised everyone in the second half of week 6’s come from behind win over an aging Bombers’ defence with his mobility and ability to find receivers.  The Stamps will not be surprised and will disguise the pass rush and run defence that should be problematic for the QB making his second career start. 

Calgary’s Maier has had problems when he is hurried.  Ottawa is second in the league in sacks.  With Mills and the Calgary run game struggling last week against the Riders, they will not have an easier time this week against the  2nd best run defence in the league.  The Red Blacks have the 3rd highest number of sacks as well so with troubles running the football Maier, will be in some difficulty trying to pass effectively. 

Ottawa and Calgary already have the worst and 3rd worst passing yards/game numbers so put this all together and we have another early season defensive battle on our hands.  Take the under and enjoy the domination of the defences.

The Brewers have been a strong 12-5 in July, with a better winning %  than the 9-7 Braves.  A pair of right-handers with a similar issue start today. Teheran returned from a lengthy absence with a small run of terrific starts, but has since struggled, giving up 17 runs in 16 innings.  He has an OP BA of .327 in July.  Braves' starter Elder has had a fine year until his last two starts.  He has allowed a dozen runs in just 6+ innings, with an ERA of 9.95 in July.  Atlanta is  5.4/6.9 in runs for and against over the last week.  The 8-2 Brewers are not know for offense but have been averaging 4 runs a game lately, and will have their chances against Elder. The Braves' overall ERA over the last two weeks is an ugly  6.14.  Atlanta leads the league in offense and can put up runs in a hurry against a struggling pitcher like Teheran. Take today's game to go over the total.

For Ottawa there is good news and bad news and then some sort of good news.  Ottawa got their first win in week 4 and then their winning QB turned out to have a torn ACL and is now out for the season.  The sort of good news is that star QB Masoli is back after a year off from a broken leg.  Great to have him back, but welcome to the 2nd lowest scoring offense in the CFL.  As the rest of the league is beginning to get enough reps on offence to shake off the rust and begin to string some plays into drives and hopefully into points, Masoli will be starting at square one.  It won’t be pretty.  His star favorite receiver from last year, Ellingsen, is still out and this year’s top recruit Evans is still out too.

Luckily for him his “D” has been solid this year with the third best results in the league for yards allowed and points allowed by their opponent’s offence.  They should be able to contain Hamilton’s offence, what with two starters on the O-line (including the off-season’s biggest signing LT Figueroa)

Hamilton has their own problems with top signing QB, Levi-Mitchell, on the shelf.  Backup Shiltz has slowly improved, with his best outing in week 4, but although they lead the league in red zone trips they have the third worst points for number in the league.

What we have here is a perfect storm for a low total.  They are the 2nd and 3rd worst teams in offense yards/game, last and 2nd to last big plays (20+ yds rush play; 30+ yds pass play) and major questions with unproven receivers on both sides. 

Put that together with under being 5-2 in both their last 7 in Hamilton and against each other and you have a pretty strong case.

Another interesting stat is that by the end of week 4, 66% of games have been under and to start week 5 both games have been under.  Going for the under with these two sputtering teams is a good call for this one.

Two solid starters, both just seven starts in from an IL return, square up in Game two of the KC/Cleveland series.  Royals' lefty Lynch has allowed just four runs over 18 innings in his last three starts, including a pair of rare Royals wins. It is a small sample size but Lynch has been very strong (1.89 ERA) on the road to date.  Guardians' right hander Civale has given up two or less runs in five of his last six starts.  He held the Cubs to just three hits over six innings last time out. The Royals' offense just isn't getting the job done, managing just 8 runs in their last 4 games.  Cleveland does not hit left handers very well, managing just.234 BA, with very few home runs to date.
With just 7 starts each so far, Friday's pitchers are just hitting their stride(s) at this point. Both starters will very likely pitch effectively for a least five innings.  While the Guardians' bullpen is dependable, KC's is a different story, however Lynch has won two of his last three starts, and offers solid start length. I'll hold my breath re: the Royals' relievers, but I am wagering on the under on Friday.

Both probable pitchers have run hot and cold lately.  But Davies of the D-backs just pitched 7 shutout innings, while Senga has only allowed 2 runs in each of his last two starts. 

Both teams have been middle of the pack in hitting over the last 15 days.  But in terms of runs neither have produced much.  In their last 7 games the Mets have averaged 4.0 runs/9 for and the D-backs have averaged 3.9 runs/9 for.  Both those are under the expected line of 9.  On top of that the Mets have only allowed 3.1 runs/9 against while the D-backs have only allowed 3.3 runs/9 against.  All of these numbers add up to a low scoring affair.

In Senga’s last 5 starts on grass the under is 5-0 and his last 4 on the road have the unders at 4-0.  The D-backs are under in all 5 of their last 5 games and they have the unders at 5-0 in their last 5 on grass.  It should all go together to get you under the wire with a safe play on the under.

This is the turtle derby with the two winless wonders, the Elks and the RedBlacks, doing battle.  Both teams have struggled mightily on the offensive side of the ball.  So much so that they will both start new QBs this week.  Doege had some good results in relief of Cornelius albeit in garbage time against the Argos last week while Adams did just OK in relief of the hapless Arbuckle.  The QBs aren’t the problem as both teams have chaos causing O-lines that can’t control the line of scrimmage enough for their skill players to produce.  And the Elks will be without starting LT Garnett this week.  On top of that the little passing production the Elks had against the Argos will be reduced without star receiver Lewis and wily vet Arcenaux. 

The Elks defence hung in there for the first half against the Argos but just ran out of gas because their offence just couldn’t stay on the field long enough for them to catch their breath.  Given that the RedBlacks seem to have mastered the 2 and out so far this year the Elks “D” should perform better.  The Redblacks D-line should continue their successful ways against this woeful Elks O-line and its resultant weak rushing attack.

These two teams’ offences are 8th and 9th in the league in total yards, passing yards and points scored.  The Elks have averaged 14.7 points/game while the RedBlacks are even worse with a 13.5 points/ game avg.

You can see where I’m headed here.  In their last 9 head to head the under is 9-1 between these two teams.  The Redblacks have had an under total for all 3 games this season, are 7-1 for the under in their last 8 week 4 games and 4-1 in their last 5 games in June.  The Elks unders are 2-1 this season.  Although the field is dry and artificial turf these two offences will mud wrestle their way to an under total on Friday night.

These two probable pitchers have been outstanding lately.  The White Sox’ Giolito is having an amazing June as his ERA is 1.50 and his WHIP is 1.04.  In his last start he whiffed 10 batters over 6 innings and gave up 1 earned run in a losing effort.  In his last 3 starts Giolito’s ERA is 2.00.  Angels’ Barria usually works from the bullpen but has started 4 games this season.  In those four starts his ERA is 2.83. 

But what about the under records for these two teams.  The White Sox unders are 4-0-2 in their last 6 vs right handed starters and 3-0-2 in their last 5 on the road.  In their last 11 the Angels’ under record is 11-0 vs. teams with a losing record.

In terms of hitting, the woeful White Sox are 26th in avg. and 25th in OPS over the last 15 days.  The Angel are in the top 5 in both stats over the last 15 days but in their last game against Giolito the Angels lost and were held to 4 hits against him over 5 innings.  This looks like another solid total.  Go with the under on this one. 

Probable pitchers Bradley for the Rays and Gallen for the D-backs are both having solid seasons.  But looking under the hood for both shows a deterioration in June.  Bradley’s ERA has ballooned to 4.26 and his WHIP is 1.46 for the month.  Gallen’s has crept up too to 3.16 and 1.25 respectively.  Bradley is only lasting an average of less than 5 innings per outing.  He really has depended on a solid Rays bullpen to bail him out.  It may be too late by the time they arrive though as the D-backs are in the top ¼ of the majors in avg. and OPS. 

In terms of scoring, the Rays have averaged 5.67 R/9 while the D-backs have averaged 5.24 R/9.  In their L10 the Rays have averaged 6.71 R/9 while the D-backs have averaged 5.94/9.  Those two sets of stats point to an average total of well over 10 for this match up.  Take the over on this one.

The Reds are hitting exceptionally well at the moment, first in BA and OPS over the last week..  They have had to to keep winning, with an overall ERA of 6.00+ lately. Reds' lefty Williamson has an ERA of 5.64 in June and he will face much tougher competition in the Orioles on Monday.  The second inning has been deadly; he has an ERA of over 12.00.  The Orioles have pitching woes of their own, both starting and relief.  Mondays' starter Irwin has been a little better in his recent call-up, but his innings have been limited .  He has struggled the third time through the order with a frightening ERA of 32.40 when pitching into the fifth.  Relief is not in sight, with a bullpen ERA of 7.56 over the last 10 games. 

Two solid hitting teams, two struggling starters and bullpens.  Let's not stray from the obvious on Monday.  Take the Orioles and Reds to go over the total.

Montreal has only played one game.  They are barely out of pre-season and that means a disjointed offence in the CFL in June.  Hamilton’s starting QB is a game time decision that seems to be leaning towards not playing.  Hamilton’s O-line is banged up and dysfunctional.  Starting LT (Figureroa) and RT(Riley) are both out and 5 other O-linemen are on IR.  Top receiver Bayless is also out.  Not a recipe for a successful offence.

Both teams were already looking like they were going to depend on their defences this season. 

The under is 4-0 for the last 4 between these two teams in Hamilton.  Under is 6-1 for the last 7 between these two teams.  For Montreal unders are 6-1 in their last 7 following a win.   Clearly with past records and underperforming offences in June you should take the under for this game.

The big dogs are playing a game already.  The undefeated Bombers and Lions with their dominant defences will punish their respective offences in a classic early season battle.  For the Lions two of their top receivers are out (Rhymes and Hatcher) and their third top receiver (Whitehead) is back and could be fragile.  For the Bombers their star RB (Oliveira) is questionable which could be a setback for their league leading rush game. 

This game pits the #1 pass offence (Bombers) against the #1 pass defence (Lions).  June in the CFL always gives the edge to the defence.  The Lions’ defence is also #1 in points allowed with a miniscule 7.5 points against/game so far.  Combine that with the Bombers only allowing 29 points against/game and you have a total of only 36.5 allowed/game by these two defences.

In their last 6 games under is 6-0 for BC and their last 5 road games under is 5-0 (that includes two games in Winnipeg).  An interesting stat is that the Bombers in their last 7 week 3 games have unders dominating 6-1.  Go with the under and enjoy a smash mouth defensive battle.

The Tigers have won 3 of 4 games and averaged 7 runs in those wins.  That is quite an improvement for a team enmired in the cellar on offense this season.  Eight of their last ten games have gone over. The Royals are allowing plenty of runs lately; over 6 on average in their last 7 games.  They are very poor as a road underdog and just 2-13 in June.  Jordan Lyles has had an abysmal year to date, the consistent victim of big innings.  At 0-11 and with an era of well over 6, quality starts have been few and far between.  Young Tigers starter Olson surprised in his first two appearances since a June call up but his last start is probably truer to form, when he allowed 6 ER in 3+ innings. He struggled seriously in Triple A this season.  Both teams have an opportunity to put up some runs today.  I m wagering on a high total.  Take KC and the Tigers to go over.

Week 1 went well with a 3-0 record.  I am ready and willing to play for Week 2.  Here is a great play for you.        

Analysis    Calgary and Ottawa both lost in Week 1 and both are loathe to start the season 0-2.  Both teams opened with low scoring results for their offence.  15 for Calgary and 12 for Ottawa.  Typical June results in the CFL for offences that played their QBs for limited minutes in the pre-season and just don’t have the reps to be productive.

Under is 5-1 for the Stamps after a loss in their last 6.  The RedBlacks under is 14-6 after a loss.  So clearly both teams stress defence in the week of prep after a loss.  In their last 7 meetings under is 6-1.

Ottawa still must start number 2 QB Arbuckle as Masoli still isn’t ready.  Arbuckle threw 3 picks against a revamped Alouettes secondary.  Ottawa will be missing starting RB Williams and WR Demon is nicked up but should play.  It will be another long night for the RedBlacks offence.

Calgary QB Maier struggled again against the Lions and will be missing a second O-line starter as Thornton is joining starting LT Coker on IR.  Ottawa got 6 sacks against the Alouettes and harassed Fajardo all game.  Calgary will also be missing last year’s leading rusher Carey and top receiver Henry is questionable.  WR Philpot is still out.  It won’t be a fun night for Maier.

This will be a typical June CFL matchup with defences dominating  and offences suffering from a lack of reps.  Take the under for the total.

Probable pitchers Suarez for the Phillies and Kelly for the D-backs are putting together solid seasons.  They just haven’t been able to do it against each others’ teams.  It might have to do with the power both teams display at the plate as of late.  In the last 15 days, D-backs are 2nd in OPS and 6th in avg. while the Phillies are 8th and 4th respectively over the same time period.  Suarez’s last 3 starts against the D-backs has resulted in 13 runs against the Phillies in two of them and 5 in the other; both with totals well over 8.5.  Kelly’s last start against the Tigers ended up with a total of 17!

The Phillies avg 4.61 runs/9 for this season while the D-backs avg 5.25 runs/9 for this season.  Quick math; that’s a total of 9.86 runs/9 when combined.  The D-backs average 5.4 runs against LH starters while the Phillies avg. 4.7 runs against RH starters.  It all adds up to a total over 10  Take the over for the win.

Two improving young right-handers square off when the Red Sox meet the Yankees today.  Bello had a 2.67 ERA in May: giving up three runs in his last start to the Rays was a recent high.  Schmidt struggled at times early in the season but has been solid in his last three starts with a 2.16 ERA.  The Yankees still have one of the best pens in the business.  Neither team has been hitting well, tied for 21st in the league in OPS in their last seven games.  We don't generally think of the two teams as low scoring, but the under has figured in six of eight of Boston's recent games, and in five of six Yankees' starts.  the "judge" in not in session today. Let's stick with a low total again.  Take the Under this evening. 9*s!

As expected, we saw a much tighter-checking game three, with significantly fewer shots on both sides.  Play-off Bob looked sharp but the Panthers did a much better job in allowing him to see the puck.  While the Panthers didn't shut down Vegas's big three in Marchessault, Eichel and Stone, they did at least limit their opportunities to 8 shots on net in total.  The Knights are a very well coached team, exceptional at adjusting from game to game, and at limiting scoring on the road.  They limited Dallas at home to just 3 goals in 3 games.  I expect game four could again be low scoring, especially if Bobrovsky continues to rebound.  Hill wasn't quite as sharp in game three.  Look for the Knights' oversized defenders to come to his aid this time out.  Take Saturday's game to again go under.

The OU lines in this series have gotten lower and lower. They went from 218.5 to 216.5 to 213. Now, the Game 4 line is the lowest yet. Too low. Five of Denver's last eight visits here have still gone over the total. Now trailing 2-1, the Heat have seen the over go 4-1 their last 5, when behind in a series. You saw what happened in Game 2, when they were down 1-0. That game ended up with 219, the highest scoring game of the series. The Nuggets average 115.6 ppg. The Heat are going to have to score to keep up. This game goes OVER! 10* Playoff TOY

After a blow-out loss, the Panthers slink back to Florida for game three.  Location was highly significant for the Panthers in the regular season:  they were a .500 club on the road, and much better at home.  The Knights were actually a better on the road than at home this year.  They played a very different style, tight-checking and composed, and the totals reflected this.  The Panthers are now at critical mass and absolutely must play with more discipline and composure, limiting penalties.  They have had a couple of days of soul-searching.  Vegas, with solid defense and goal-tending from Hill, has been able to limit the Panthers' quality scoring chances.  I believe this will continue on Thursday.  I also believe that the Panthers will rebound and find their composure.  They'll have the final change, so with the right personnel on the ice, perhaps they can cool off the Eichel, Marchessault, Barbashev line.  Look for the return of the Florida forecheck, and a better game from Bobrovsky.  The Total has climbed to six.  Take the Under on Thursday. 10* Playoff TOY

Probable pitchers Gilbert (Mariners) and Musgrove (Padres) have had solid results lately.  Musgrove, an NL all star last season, is coming back from a toe injury and is rounding back into form.  He has surrendered 0 and 1 earned runs in his last two starts.  Gilbert has a WHIP of .98 and his ERA has been dropping in May.  His last start against the hard hitting Yankees wasn’t great but the two before that were solid.  Both pitchers should have success against hitters that are struggling.  The Padres have hit .213 against RHP in their last 10 while the Mariners have only hit .197.

In terms of defense both teams have kept opponents’ OPS below .700. The Padres' bullpen has been solid, the Mariners', less so but Gilbert should last long enough to keep it from being an issue.

The Padres have been under 4 of their last 5 games, and Mariners have been under for 2 of their last 4.  Both teams are near the bottom ¼ of the majors in avg and OPS.  All of this should go together nicely to keep the total under on Tuesday night.

The total in Game One went as expected, with Bobrovsky allowing four goals against for just the first time in eleven games.  I doubt that his extended rest will prove beneficial in this series.  Let's not forget that in spite of his recent play, Bobrovsky had a pair of five goals-against games early in the Boston series.  Adin Hill continued to impress with a .943 save % on 35 shots.  On offense, Eichel had a pair of assists in Game one.  Stone was held scoreless but had seven shots on net.  Tkachuk took himself out of the game for the final five minutes, and was also held pointless.  I am still convinced that offenses, especially Vegas' will rule the day in this series.  That same 5 1/2 total is readily available.  We have a small sample size, but recent games with the Knights as the home side have all gone over.  Take the Over again in Game two.

We have seen a stack of unders with the Panthers in the postseason, not in small part due to Bobrovsky's remarkable play.  It is now ten days since he played, so at what point does rest become rust?  He gave up three goals in his last start; I'm wagering that he will do at least the same tonight.  The Panthers are 0-5 in Vegas and those games have gone over to the tune of 4-1.  The Knights rolled out six goals against a very good defensive team in their last game.  The return of Mark Stone and Eichel's first foray into the playoffs have made the Golden Knights an offensive force to be reckoned with.  The Golden Knights have had five days rest and are mostly healthy, a rarity in the past two years. Let's not forget that the Panthers were a top six team in offense this season. Look for goal tending on a less heroic scale and a higher final score.  Take Vegas and the Panthers to go over the total.

The Twins and Guardians didn't score many runs on Friday, and with Allen and Gray on the mound we could see a similar result for Saturday.  The Under is 7-3 in Guardians games, and consistent (5-0-1) in Allen's starts.  Cleveland's rookie lefty is off to a fine season, and off a superlative 7 inning 10 K shutout in his last start.  The Twins' right-hander Gray hasn't been quite as good in May as April, but man, has he pitched well at home (3-0, 1.27 ERA) this year. The teams are supported by two of the most effective bullpens in the league.
Cleveland's offense has been a disappointment all season.  They struggle particularly vs right-handers.  The Twins, at 25th in OPS, have their issues with lefties.  Buxton, Correa and Gallo are all listed as questionable for Saturday, a possible big hit to Minnesota's offense.  Look for another low-scoring game and take the Under on Saturday.

Both teams can play defense but both can also produce plenty of points. Games at Denver average nearly 228 points. When the Heat played here during the season, the teams combined for 117 in the first half and 243 for the game. That O/U line was 224. Over is 7-3 when Miami played with 2 day's rest and the over is also 6-1 when Denver played with 3 or more day's rest. We'll also point out that 11 of 17 games have topped the total, when the Heat were coming off a double-digit victory. All of the above, go with the over to start June right.

The Guardians’ Bibee and the Twins’ Lopez are two young pitchers with very solid results lately.  Since being called up April 26th star prospect Bibee has been meeting the high expectations the Guardians have had for him.  With a sparkling 2.88 ERA and an improving 1.08 WHIP he should have a more impressive win/loss record but he just can’t seem to get any run support from the light hitting Guardians.  In his last outing against the Cards he only allowed 2 hits but was only supported with one run and so he took the loss.  Lopez has racked up 81 SO and if you take out the one game against the powerful Dodgers his improving ERA in May would be 2.77.  Against the Guardians’ 29th best OPS in the majors, Lopez should lock things down well.  The Twins are also in the bottom third of the majors for average and OPS.

Both bullpens have been excellent lately.  In their last 10 Cleveland’s relievers have a 1.31 ERA and in their last 5 it is a miniscule .47.  The Twins bullpen has excelled lately too with a 2.23 ERA in their last 10.

All of the above, combined with the Guardians’ over/under in their last 10 being 2-8 and the Twins’ over/under being 3-7 in their last 10 (one game was over by .5), point clearly to a low scoring affair.  Go with the under to start June right.

A pair of strong young right handers face off in Houston tonight.  The Astros' Brown has been sharp lately, allowing just 3 runs over 13 innings in his last two appearances.  Varland has also been effective for the Twins, giving up 3 or less runs in his last three starts.  The two teams are similar on paper; first and second in runs-allowed this season, and both with middling offenses.  Houston, now 7-3, definitely has the hotter hand lately.  The Twins are sub-.500 on the road, have struggled in and against Houston, and are having difficulty producing runs lately, scoring three or less in six of nine games.  Both teams have very good relief pitching, and both starting pitchers have seen the total go under consistently in recent games.  With Houston a heavy favorite, the total is the best wager today.  Take the Twins and Astros to go under.

No doubt that the Under will be a “popular” play tonight in Game 7 between the Heat and Celtics. That’s atypical as the public usually prefers to bet the Over. But history can be difficult to ignore, especially when Unders are on a 37-24 (61%) run in Game 7’s including 11-1 L12 when excluding the 2020 “bubble.” 

But I will go against the grain and take the Over here. We’ve seen a massive adjustment in the number from Game 5 when the O/U line closed at 214.5. 

Each of the last two games in the series saw a combined 207 total points scored. That would now be enough to cash an Over ticket. None of the games in this series have seen fewer than 207 total points scored. 

Neither team shot all that well in Game 6 and we still got to 207. The Celtics shot just 20% from three-point range (7 of 35). The Heat were an abysmal 19 of 63 (31%) from inside the arc. I believe we’ll see better shooting in both regards here in Game 7. 

Even with the last three games in this series all going Under, Boston is 11-5 to the Over in its last 16 games and Miami is 16-6 to the Over in its last 22 games (including 10-2 on the road). 10* 

The Reds are a very poor road team but they've still managed to take the first two games of the series from the hapless Cubs.  They have feasted on Cubs pitching and also put up a ten spot vs the Cardinals, putting them near the top in offense over the last week.  Reds' starter Ashcraft started the season on fire, but has gone very very cold lately, with an ERA of 10.03 in May.  Cubs' left-handed veteran Smyly has been pretty sharp this year, winning three game in May, with a 2.63 ERA for the month.  The problems will come once Smyly leaves, as everyone seems to be teeing off on the Cubs' relievers.  The Reds have had great success vs left-handed pitching lately.

No one enjoys being swept and the Cubs aren't hitting badly at the moment.  They'll get there chances if Ashcraft continues to struggle.  It is quite likely that the Reds will run up the score in the later innings.  Sunday's total is very average.  I'm wagering on the over in this one.

The Stars and Oettinger bounced back with an overtime win in Game four.  I really thought that the young Stars goalie was down for the count, but he survived nearly 40 shots with by far his best game of the series.  Hill was again steady in net for Vegas as he has been all series long.  Dallas will be again in must win mode but at least they have now had a taste of success, however the Knights have been very good at making the necessary adjustments after a loss.  With 2/3s of the Stars second line out and with the final change tonight, Vegas can key on the Stars top line which accounted for all of the Dallas scoring in Game four.  This series was always expected to be a low scoring one, and in spite of some subpar goal tending by Oettinger, the last three games have gone under.  Look for another tight checking, low scoring affair tonight, and take the total to go under.

Two young future star right handers face off when Keller meets Kirby on Friday.  Keller has been exceptional lately.  His K to BB  ratio is an amazing 18-1, with a very low WHIP to go with it.  Mariners' Kirby has impressed as well, pitching late into games with a low ERA in May.  Neither the Pirates nor the Mariners are hitting especially well in general, nor are they getting much recent  success vs right handed pitching.  The M's have a very good bullpen; the Pirates should get plenty of innings out of Keller. Take this game to go under the total.

We’ve got a high total tonight in this WNBA matchup between Dallas and Seattle. Well, maybe it’s not that high considering the O/U line for these teams' respective season openers closed at 161.5 and 165.5. 

But the key is Seattle gave up 105 in a horrific 41-point loss to Las Vegas. They let the Aces shoot 55% for the game.

I think the value is squarely on the Under for tonight’s game. Though it was “just one game,” the Storm certainly will be cognizant of being better at the defensive end. 

Las Vegas hit 11 of 18 three-point attempts in that game, an absurd percentage (61.1%). No way Dallas is doing that tonight. 

In fact, these two teams combined to go just 15 of 41 from three in their first games. Take the Under. 10* 

All of a sudden, we’ve got a series here in the Eastern Conference Finals as Boston staved off elimination on Tuesday, winning Game 4 116-99 as 1.5-point underdogs.

I cashed the Under in that game; albeit barely as we needed the Heat to NOT take a shot on the final possession (which thankfully they didn’t). Of course, there was no guaranteeing a Miami shot would have gone in right before the horn as they shot just 43% overall in Game 4 and 25% from three. 

Even with the series returning to Boston, I don’t see the Celtics matching their Game 4 shooting (51% overall, 40% from three). 

Other than Jimmy Butler, who had 29 points and 9 rebounds Tuesday, the Heat don’t have a ton of reliable scoring options. Gabe Vincent rolled his ankle pretty badly in the last game and Kyle Lowry may be banged up as well. 

Miami is giving up just 108.4 points/game in these playoffs while Boston is allowing just 109.9. I don’t see both teams having good offensive nights here. 10* 

The top and second top forechecking teams in the NHL (by advanced metrics) are masterful at getting in on the puck.  But it turns out they are also great at limiting in zone high danger chances.  Their skill at forechecking includes an ability to clog up the neutral zone and stifle rush chances.  Both teams still manage to keep things exciting with checkers and puck carriers selling out and sacrificing themselves all over the ice. 

When you combine this with unbelievable goaltending it is a sure recipe for low scoring affairs.  The losing goaltender in this series, Andersen has save percentages of .941 and .950.  That is phenomenal.  But Bobrovsky has been otherworldly with 1.0, .974 and.969 save percentages.  It’s no surprise that the Canes under record is 4-0 in their last 4 and the Panthers is 8-0 in their last 8.  Both teams have averaged totals of 5.4 (Carolina) and 5.2(Florida) GF +GA in their last 10 games.

When you have no high scoring stars on either side it’s no wonder that the under is a must call on this one.  Take the under and enjoy this hard fought hockey to the max.

I think we’re due for an Under in this series as Miami can’t possibly match their shooting from the last game as they went 19 of 35 from three (54.5%) and shot 56.8% overall from the field.

All three of these ECF games have now gone Over the total, two of them by wide margins, but it looks like Game 4 will have the highest closing O/U line of the series.

I don’t think that’s warranted. Boston’s season is on the line, so I don’t expect an up-tempo game. The Celtics are also really struggling from three, especially the last two games where they’re down around 27%. 

For the entire playoffs, the Heat are allowing just 107.9 points/game. They were also one of the top defensive teams in the regular season. 

I’m on the Under in Game 4. 10* 

The Stars have not been getting the goal-tending required for  playoff success in Round three.  In spite of Oettinger's track record, and the Knights being limited to just 24 shots in Game two, Dallas came up in the wrong side of overtime again.  Golden Knights' net minder Adin Hill has looked very sharp in his last four starts.  This is obviously  a must-win situation for the Stars.  Vegas has been a tighter close checking team when playing on the road all season.  I think Dallas will respond with even more defensive pressure, while an obviously weary Oettinger will look to rebound from some poor outings.  Game three will be another close one, with an equally low total.  Take the Under on Tuesday

Well, it appears as if we all might as well start preparing to handicap a Denver-Miami NBA Finals as both teams hold 3-0 series leads in the respective Conference Finals and no team in league history has ever blown such an advantage. 

As for whether or not the Nuggets make it a 4-0 sweep over the Lakers tonight, I do not know. I do know that I don’t want to lay points with the home team, who is clearly the inferior squad in this matchup.

But I’m also not convinced that the Nuggets will be able to match their shooting from Sunday where they made 50% of their total FG attempts including 41% from three. Jamal Murray was absolutely unconscious in Game 3, making 11 of his first 13 shots on the way to a third straight 30+ point game in the series. 

On the road, Denver typically is not as good as they are at home. Game 3 marked just the second time this postseason that the Lakers allowed more than 101 points at home. 

The problem for LA is that I just don’t see where an increase in scoring comes from for them. They are already getting as much as you can ask for out of Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. Anthony Davis had 28 points and 18 rebounds in Game 3, but rarely produces back to back stellar efforts. LeBron James continues to be miserable from three. Take the Under. 10* 

The Miami Heat continue to shock and amaze as they have a commanding 2-0 series lead after winning both games in Boston. I wouldn’t necessarily rule the Celtics out just yet, but I also don’t want to bet them as road favorites in Game 3 Sunday. 

So let’s look at the total. The first two games went Over, the first one easily (239 points) and the second barely (216). I think we’re in store for the lowest scoring game of the series as the scene shifts to South Beach. 

Something that should frighten Celtics’ fans is that their team shot well in the first two games (basically 50%) and still went 0-2. I don’t see them shooting as well on the road. The C’s were actually 27 of 44 on 2PA in Game 2 (61%). No way they are repeating that. 

The last four times Boston has visited Miami, the Under has cashed every time.

For Miami, it remains to been seen whether or not Jimmy Butler can keep this ridiculous run going. The Heat don’t have a ton of reliable scoring options besides Butler. The Celtics did hold the 76ers under 90 points three different times in the last round. 10* 

There are no Bobrovskys in this series.  Oettinger was expected to excel but for what ever reason (fatigue?) he has been little better than average in the playoffs.  Adin Hill was the better goalie in game one.  We have seen a surprising number of high totals from these two teams in the playoffs; 7-1 in the Stars' case, and three straight from Vegas.  The odds-makers keep setting the number at 5.5 but without superlative goal-tending, that number seems low.  It has been a rare game in the playoffs that the Knights haven't scored 4 or more goals.  The Stars have also averaged roughly four goals a game over their last 1o games.  I am jumping on that low number in Game two.  Take Vegas and the Stars to go over the total.

There has to be a regression to the mean in Bobrovsky’s goaltending.  His .943 save% in his last 6 games is off the charts and way above his seasonal and career numbers.  After an almost 7 period game, this is the time for it to come back down to earth.  The Canes are 3rd in average shots per game while the Panthers are 22nd in average shots against.  Bobrovsky is due for a melt down.  The Panthers’ PK is at 61%.  The Canes PP hasn’t been great but this will be Teravinen’s second game back so he should help their PP and offense in general more than last game.  
Florida has been involved in a lot of under totals lately but two stats point to the Canes being able to make adjustments to juice up their attack.  They are 7-1 over/under on one day’s rest and have a 21-7 win loss record when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in the previous game.  It all points to an over total for game 2. Tired teams usually score more rather than less goals.  Take Game two to go over the total.

I had the Over in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals last night and there was certainly no shortage of scoring there. But for tonight’s Game 1 of the East Conference Finals (between Miami and Boston), I’m anticipating a much different kind of game. 

Now it was mostly Overs for both of these teams in the first round of the playoffs. But then the scoring really started to slow down in the respective second round matchups. The Heat-Knicks series was really played at a “snail’s pace” and never saw more than 216 total points scored in any game. Four of the six games finished at 210 or less with the close-out game being the “low-water mark” at 188.

The Celtics really put the clamps down on the Sixers over the final two games of that series, holding them to 86 and 88 points. In three of Boston’s four second round wins, they allowed less than 90 points! 

I can’t see the Celtics shooting as well as they did when I cashed them in Game 7 vs. Philadelphia. Jayson Tatum scored a record 51 points and, as a team, the Celtics shot 45% from three. 

The Under is 27-13 the last three seasons when Boston is playing on exactly two days’ rest. Their last five games have averaged only 209.2 points. The last five Heat games have averaged just 204.0 points. Take the Under. 10* 

I like the Over in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Over is 8-2-1 this season when either of these teams are on three or more days rest. The Lakers last played on Friday while the Nuggets finished off the Suns back on Thursday.

The Over is also now 29-17 in Lakers’ road games. That includes 3-0 in the Warriors’ series. 

Denver, who comes in averaging 118.7 points/game at home, is going to look to push the pace. They are also shooting better than 50% in all games FOR THE YEAR! 

The Lakers are also going to push pace. In fact they play at the fastest pace of any of the four remaining teams. They spend roughly 1/5 of their time in transition. 

Granted, it was the regular season and the games were back in December and January. But the last two times these teams played, the O/U closed at 238 and 237. There’s clear value on the Over here. 10*

The Braves and Rangers went Over the total on Monday with the former doing ALL of the lifting, scoring 12 runs in a complete beatdown of the AL West leaders.

Today, I’m looking at another Over, only this time the number of runs scored should be a bit more evenly distributed. 

The Braves are 16-6 on the road where they average 5.8 runs per game. They’ll face Dane Dunning, who has been better than expected so far (filling in for the injured Jacob deGrom) and a Rangers’ bullpen that they beat up on as well yesterday. It was five 2-run homers for Atlanta in the series opener.

For the Braves’ sake, they better hope they are swinging the bats well again. Because starter Jared Shuster has given up four runs each of his first two starts and neither time he made it a full five innings.

Texas is the highest scoring team in baseball, averaging 6.2 runs per game. 10*

It is hard to believe, but the Mighty Padres have gone under in 10 straight games.  The Royals are 6-3 below par in their last nine.  Th Padres just plain can't hit right-handers and they face a competent one in Keller on Monday.  He has sandwiched a pair of fine outings around a dog of a start vs the A's.  (It is peculiar and frustrating how many times a good pitcher will struggle against such a poor team as the A's).  Keller is wild, but the Padres are hardly the most patient of teams.  The Padres will run out Wacha who is looking more and more like the pitcher of last year, with three straight quality appearances.  The Padres' pen has been very good and the Royals surprisingly competent lately.  Take Monday's game to go under the total.

The Kraken have been a much tougher nut to crack in the playoffs than anyone expected.  The Stars came in as favored, but the series has see-sawed wildly in wins.  The only consistent factor is the over, and I expect another one today. Goal tending and the Kraken offense have been the keys in  Series two.  The Settle goal tending was always suspect, and Grubauer, after a terrific first series, has reverted to an .865 save %  against the Stars.  Oettinger who was expected to excel in the postseason, has been pulled twice and has exactly the same .865 save % as Grubauer.  The high totals are perhaps not so surprising as these were the 5th and 7th ranked offenses, however the Stars' inability to control Seattle with one of the league's elite defenses is an eye-opener.  I am not going to second guess this one.  Take game seven to again go over.

My run on totals is up to 13-3.  This is your chance to jump on board.  Skinner, tonight’s likely Oilers goalie, has alternated good with abysmal starts.  This is his turn for a good one. He has had save %s of .962 and .968 for his great starts.  We won’t talk about his bad starts.  Nurse will return from his suspension which should solidify the Oilers' back end. 

 Aidan Hill has had a .926 save % in his last 10 starts.  Pietrangelo and Kolesar have got their owlies out, so that should limit the power play chances for the Oilers.  The Knights have managed to limit the damage from Edmonton’s top scoring duo in most recent action. That combined with the fact that Vegas plays a different kind of lockdown game on the road should combine with all of the above to create a low event game for game 6. 

Three of the last 4 games of this series have been under.  In the last 8 meetings between these clubs, the under is 6-1-1.  Join me for another fine total selection. We should see a tense, much tighter,  more defensive tonight, especially from the last chance Oilers.The Under is the call for tonight’s game.

My run on totals in the NHL playoffs is up to 12-3.  I couldn’t believe my good fortune when I saw an over of 5.5 (-120) for Saturday.  I couldn’t write this pick quickly enough.  Dallas, in their last 10 games has averaged a total of 7 goals a game.  Seattle isn’t far behind at 6.8.  As a favorite Dallas’ games have averaged a total of 6.4 goals per game.  As a dog Seattle’s totals have averaged 6.5 per game. Overs are 4-0 for the L4 games in Seattle and 8-0 for the L8 meetings between these two clubs.  And then the clincher for me, Dallas is 5-0-1 on overs for their L6 and Seattle is 5-0 in their last 5. 

Although both clubs were just below .500 for overs against all opponents during the regular season, the playoffs seem to be a different story.  The intensity, physicality and pressure all seem to conspire to create high event hockey.  Jump on the over.

I don’t understand why the oddsmakers moved this number so low. For the first five games of the series, the closing O/U line has ranged from 223.5 to 229.5. The “low water mark” was the last game, which went Over as the Warriors stayed alive via a 121-106 win and cover.

I understand that both teams shot pretty well in Game 5. Golden State ended up at 51.1% overall and 37.1% from three while Los Angeles was 48.3% and 37.0%. We may not see BOTH teams shoot that well again tonight.

But Game 6 is in LA and the Warriors (as you know) have been dreadful on the road all season (12-34 SU, 14-32 ATS). The primary reason for those dreadful results has been the defense. On the road, the Dubs are allowing roughly 10 points/game more than what they are allowing at home. That is why the Over is 29-15 in all Warriors’ road games. 

One positive for Golden State is that Steph Curry is just 6 of 25 from three the last two games. I say “positive” because you’ve got to expect he’s not going three games in a row shooting that poorly from distance. The team still scored 121 last game with Curry going 3 for 11 on 3PA and not attempting a single free throw.

Golden State did only average 99 points in the two prior games here in LA. But, for the year, they are putting up 117.3 points/game away from home. Expect a better offensive effort from the Warriors here and that leads to this game going Over the total. 10*

I am again confident on this one despite going 1-1 last night.  This is my first under in awhile but the sports books have been taking a beating and they offered up a generous one to try and turn the tide. 

That combined with the new approach Toronto is taking to protect their young goaltender, Woll.  12 different Leafs blocked shots last game as a key point in their heroic defending.  That combined with the fact that Toronto’s core 4 forwards can’t seem to get untracked with Florida’s physical and smothering defense indicates a low event affair tonight. 

Also of note is that all 4 games in this series have been under, Toronto has been under for their last 6 and head to head the Panthers and Leafs are 6-0 on unders for their last 6.  The Leafs may be under the gun to extend this series and you can pick under with confidence for tonight’s match up.

Dallas is a heavy favorite tonight, but the Kraken are a much better team on the road, and a very good candidate to bounce back after a loss this season. The total has edged up to 6 today; not surprising as every game has gone well over in the series.  Grubauer did not look sharp in Game four, and was pulled after 40 minutes.  He has been much less successful vs Dallas with a save % under .900 in three of four games this series.  The same could be said of Oettinger, with a surprisingly low  save % of .860.   Fatigue could be a factor; the young goalie has played a ton of hockey this year.    Seattle still managed three goals in spite of the Stars limiting the Kraken to just 19 shots.  The Kraken continue to surprise on offense, and with McCann back, offense could still be the name of the game tonight.  With the topsy turvy nature of wins in the playoffs, I am hesitant to pick a side today but I am big on the total.  Take the Kraken and Stars to again go over.

Boston’s season is on the line tonight in Game 6, but they’ll have to go on the road to force a Game 7. At home in Game 5, it was a bad shooting night overall (and from three), thus I’m not expecting dramatic improvement tonight in Philadelphia.

But, strangely enough, I don’t think the 76ers will match their Game 5 shooting in Boston, which saw them go 50.6% from the field and 40% from three. Both James Harden and Tyrese Maxey have been inconsistent for them throughout this series and expecting both to have big games tonight, I think, is a mistake.

Outside of Game 1, where both teams came out and shot the lights out, this has been a pretty low-scoring series. Over the last four games, we’ve seen no more than 218 total points scored in regulation.  Remember  that Game 4 here in Philly went to overtime and was tied 107-107 at the end of 48 minutes.

So I’m looking at the Under here in Game 6. Lost in the shuffle of Philly’s Game 5 upset is that the teams combined for 61 free throw attempts. Don’t think we’ll see that number duplicated tonight.

Most trends to point towards the Over, however, Boston is 7-1 to the Under following a double digit loss at home. Also, NBA Playoff Game 6’s where you have a home underdog coming off a Game 5 win - the Under has gone 5-2 the last seven times. 10* 

Every game this series has been over 5.5 and yet the sports books keep offering it to us and we’ll keep taking it. These two teams have averaged a total of 8 goals/game. Whether the Devils start Schmid or Vanecek doesn’t matter to me. Both have struggled in their last 10 and are barely above .500. Not a good look for the playoffs. So even though Carolina is not the most high octane offense they have consistently got to both goalies. And the Devils have the 4th ranked power play while the Canes penalty kill is 20th ranked. So the Devils should score their share as well. All bodes well for my record with this pick and another total above 5.5 for a fifth consecutive game.

All of a sudden the Royals can hit.  And win games at home.  They have taken three of four from the lowly White Sox who have been just average in offense and very poor in the starting and relief pitching departments. Singer will start for the Royals.  Much was expected this year but quality starts have been rare.  The ERA (8.00+) and opposition BA (.300+) says it all.  Clevinger will start for the White Sox.  He has had mixed results this season, with two of his last three starts of the poor to fair department. He has not pitched well on the road this year.
The bullpens are both in the dumpster this season, with the Sox' particularly poor lately.  The Royals have scored 23 runs in three games against the White Sox, but the White Sox will likely get their chances on Thursday.  I expect another high-scoring game. Take the total to go over.

Two fine  starters square off in today"s Cardinals/Cubs match. The Cards' Lefty Montgomery has struggled in just one of seven starts this season.  He has been especially tough lately allowing just three runs in eighteen + innings. Definitely not a victim of the long ball , he has allowed just two dingers  to date.  The Cubs' Steele has, if anything, been even better.  His 1.45 ERA ranks with anyone in the league.  Neither offense has been particularly successful against left-handers lately, and the bullpens (especially the Cubs') have been very solid.  Take the Cubs and Cardinals to go under the total today! 9*!

The last game surprised in many ways. Oettinger looking so shaky, Dallas so vulnerable without Heiskinen, and so many different Kraken scoring at will. That second period seemed to take the wind out of the Stars’ sails. Coach Deboer is a master at making between game adjustments. Even if Heiskinen plays, the injury could affect his offensive and defensive abilities. Seattle has some confidence now and the home crowd to boost them even more. With the possibility of Grubauer coming back down to earth as well, all of this bodes well for a high event, high scoring game. The over is 6-0 for the last six games between these foes. Dallas averaged 3.83 goals and Seattle average 4.0 goals over that span. The total set at 5.5 seems like a gift. Take the over and make like a bandit.

This series is now tied up 2-2. Philadelphia won Game 4, 116-115 in OT, after blowing all of a 16-point lead. The line closed as a pick, so it was a sweat for those on the Sixers. Over bettors didn’t actually need overtime as the game was tied 107-107 at the end of regulation (total closed 213.5). 

The teams combined to shoot 30 of 78 from three, the best shooting we’ve seen from distance in this series since Game 1. Boston shot slightly better overall, but could not get off a final shot in OT. 

Back home, the Celtics should tighten up defensively. After allowing 92 points through the first three quarters on Sunday, they held the Sixers to just 15 in the fourth on 31.6% shooting.

Philly’s offense has also been very inconsistent in this series, specifically James Harden, who has two 40+ point games (Gms 1 and 4) but scored just 28 points total in Gms 2 and 3. 

Boston shot 58% in Game 1 and dominated the paint, but that was when Philadelphia didn’t have Joel Embiid. The Celtics’ edge in points in the paint has dropped dramatically over the last three games. The Under is 5-2 the last seven meetings here in Boston. 8* 

The Devils woke up on home ice, pounding two of the three Canes' goalies.  It remains to be seen if Raanta can go in game four or if Carolina will return to Andersen.  If it is anything like last series, it will be difficult for the Hurricanes to stuff the Devils' scoring genie back in the bottle, so we could be in for a wild ride in game Five.  NJ will come out flying again. Hughes broke out with four points, but New Jersey got scoring from a variety of sources.  Even Vanacek chipped in with an assist.  I have no faith in either of the Devils' netminders to limit Carolina.  I expect another barn burner with plenty of scoring. Game five will go over the total, possibly well over.

The Golden Knights could not contain the Oilers' high octane offense and their potent power play in Game two.  What was surprising was the Oilers, who are often defensively suspect, limiting the Knights to a single goal.  Vegas has been a much better away team this season, playing a tighter more disciplined style on the road that is very suitable to the playoffs.  They are a very well-coached team with an ability to adjust on the fly.   While the Oilers are a heavy favorite today, I am not ready to count Vegas out.  I think the Knights will focus on slowing down the Oilers down, at the cost of total goals.  The total went under in Game two, and an even higher number is available today. Look for a tighter checking game and take the total to go under.

The Heat won by 19 in Game 3, but it was pretty terrible shooting all-around as both teams shot below 40% from the field and 22% from three. It’s difficult to imagine that level of shooting being repeated, so I’m definitely looking for more scoring tonight in Game 4. 

One player we can count on to score is Jimmy Butler. Ironically, the Heat standout missed Game 2 and that was the one game in this series that has gone Over. But Butler has scored 25 points in each of his last nine games played and he had 30 in all but one game in the first round vs. Milwaukee. 

Game 3 marked the first time all postseason that Butler didn’t shoot 50% from the field. 

Each of the Knicks’ top three players (Barrett, Brunson, Randle) underperformed in the last game and they were a combined 2 of 17 from three. At least one player from that group is going to shoot much better tonight, if not all three.

Miami is 4-0 to the Over when leading the series this postseason. 10*

I don’t think that the Suns should feel all that bad about being down 2-1 in this best of seven series. Chris Paul is out, they’ve gotten next to NOTHING from anybody outside of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker and are shooting below 30% from three for the series. 

If there was a time that SOMEONE would step up alongside Durant and Booker, it would be here at home. I also expect we’ll start to see that 3-point % start to improve.

As for Denver, they scored 114 points in the Game 3 loss despite subpar overall shooting (44.3%). Over the last two games, the Nuggets are just 17 of 57 from three. 

Going back to the end of the regular season, the Over is on an 8-2-1 run in Suns’ games.

With the expectation that both teams will see improvement in three-point shooting and the fact they combined for 235 points in the last game, I’ll gladly hop on the Over here. 10*

The Devils bounced back after a poor start in the first series and are favored today, but the Hurricanes really seem to have New Jersey's number in this series.  The Devils' goalie situation is pretty ugly.  Neither net minder was effective in Game two, and Schmid's run would seem to have come to an end. I do think that the Devils will  score more than  one goal today; they certainly responded on offense upon returning home in the first series.  The Canes, despite missing some key pieces on offense, are getting scoring from a range of players at the moment.  They have been absolutely tenacious on the forecheck, and I don't see them taking their foot off the gas.  We have seen the over in both games of the series despite very limited offense from the Devils.  Carolina will again get their opportunities against whoever is in net.  I am wagering on the over today.

The Twins and Guardians both start solid pitchers on Sunday.  Joe Ryan is 5-0, and off a 6 inning shutout in his last appearance.  Quantrill also had a fine start last time out, and both teams are getting quality relief pitching.  The Guardians have the worst offense in the league, and while they "broke out" for four runs on Saturday, they have otherwise managed just nine runs in their previous five games.  The Twins aren't hitting well either at just .204 over their last 10 games.  The under is a result in nine of the last ten Guardians games, and is also 11-4 when these two teams meet.  Let's not buck the trend today.  Take the Under on Sunday.

The Red Sox' bats are redhot and I am not convinced that Falter (5.01 ERA) or the the Phillies Bullpen (5.77 ERA L10) will be able to cool them off.  Boston is hitting a scorching .320 collective BA. and roughed up some very good Jays starters in their last series sweep.  While Kluber has looked better in his last two starts, his overall numbers are not strong. The Phillies gave up 36 runs in their series against the Dodgers.  Although the number is high, here is a great opportunity for a "total" victory today.  Take the Sox and Phillies to go over the total today.

The Oilers will score their share of goals, and they still could win this series. It won’t be easy without an elite goalie considering how some of the defense plays, and while Skinner hasn't played badly, he is no game-changer.  Like all the successful teams this year ,Vegas was tenacious on the forecheck in Game One.  Broissoit has played better than expected but the Knights face an elite offense at 5 on 5, and one of the very best power plays ever. Add Draisatl, who is lights out in the playoffs, and the potential more than in any other series is for a bunch of goals from both sides . Take the over again in game two.

The Devils were embarrassed by the more experienced Hurricanes.  Let's hope that this will kick-start them for Game two.  Schmid was pulled in Game one after three quick goals, leaving Game two's starter a question mark.  The Devils had an even worse result in the first game of the Rangers series and did bounce back.  While Carolina is an elite defensive team, Andersen faced just eighteen shots.  I don;t believe that the high flyers we saw in the latter part of the Rangers series will be held to just a single goal and under twenty shots twice in a row.  New Jersey has rebounded well after previous losses all season long and are 13-6 after a loss of two goals or more.  Schmid has now had two poor outings.  Is it possible that his cinderella run has ended?  There are enough questions around the Devils goal tending to make the total, a low 5.5, very tempting.  Go with the over today.

Game one of the series featured more goals than expected.   Five goals against the Stars and Oettinger is a rare occurrence, but the Kraken accomplished it with tenacious forechecking and their usual balanced fifth-ranked attack. The Kraken's ability to play tough without taking penalties eliminated the Stars' very potent power play in game one.  Neither goal-tender looked sharp, but the less than stellar play by Grubauer is more concerning.  Oettinger is far more likely to bounce back.
The Stars bounced back after an opening loss in the first series.  It is unlikely that they will be able to completely shut down the Kraken, but they should get plenty of opportunity against Grubauer. Look for other forwards to chime in today, although Pavelski's return is significant.  Dallas is a very large, possibly exaggerated, favorite today.  I think the total is Thursday's best opportunity.  Take Dallas and Seattle to go over.

While Game 1 was on an Over trajectory most of the way, it wasn’t until Dennis Schroeder hit a couple of free throws in the closing seconds that the bet officially cashed. 

Golden State is typically a lot better defensively at home than they are on the road. In fact, the difference in the number of points per game allowed is basically 10 (9.8). The Lakers, even shooting 55% on 2PA, scored 117 in Game 1. I don’t see them scoring as many tonight.

The Under is 10-5-1 in the Warriors’ previous 16 home games. 

Only one Lakers’ game this entire postseason has seen more than 229 total points scored. That was Game 1 of the Memphis series. Consider that two other games went to overtime and there were still only 228 and 210 total points scored. Two of the three first round games in Memphis saw LA fail to score 100 points.

Defensively, the Lakers were one of the league’s more efficient teams after the trade deadline. Their size is a problem for the Warriors, who shot 53 threes in Game 1 and still scored only 112 points. 10* 

The Oilers' top rated offense and power play were a little much for the Golden Knights in the regular season.  Edmonton was 4-0 in Vegas and the over was 3-0-1.  They are a very good road team this year.  They do have their weak points, in goal tending and defense.  Skinner was the worst net-minder in the first round, and a healthy Vegas side will have their chances on goal.  Vegas got solid work from Broissoit in the Jets series, but the Oilers are a huge step up in speed and skill, and Broissoit has never been regarded as an elite talent.  It took Edmonton a series last year to really get flying.  We could see a very wide open style with the resulting high totals, starting in Game 1.  Take the Oilers and Knights to go over.    

Devils goal-tending issues returned as the Rangers finally broke through against Schmid in Game six. Who the Devils start in net today is the big question.  At the other end, Shesterkin has been consistently good for the Rangers with a fine .939 save % in this series.  While it didn't hold in  this series, NJ has bee a force at home this season.  The speed of the Devils has given the Rangers fits and we have yet to see a goal from Hughes.  The Devils have been tough to beat at home this season and have also a very fine record in bouncing back from a loss. Having solved both Schmid and Vanacek, the Rangers will be ready for whoever is in net.  In spite of these two teams' reputation for defense, I expect offense to be the color of the day.  Wager on the Devils and Rangers to go over.

There are some compelling reasons to consider a Kraken win tonight.  Seattle is a very good road team and are 4-1 vs the Avs in Colorado.  There are even more reasons to look at the total.  The under has figured in five of six games in this series and in all of the Av's home games.  Nine of ten recent meetings have all gone under.  Seattle and Grubauer have defended  better than anyone might have expected.  The Av's have just a single player in the top twenty playoff scoring leaders and the Kraken have none.  Seattle could still be missing McCann today, a big part of their scoring.  I am not confident on picking a winner in game seven, but I do like the total very much.  Jump on the under, especially if under six is available.

Skinner has a save % of .884 in the series and Korpisalo has given up 9 goals in 2 games.  We have now seen the total go over in the last two games.  Neither of these two teams were better than average statistically this season and goal-tending had much to do with that.  With the Oilers the top offense and with a devastating PP, high totals seemed inevitable. For me, Korpisalo overachieved in the early series.  I am betting that the Oilers get to him or Copley again today.  I also can't believe that the Kings can subdue McDavid much longer.  I am not counting the Kings out yet, but I am big on a total prediction today.  Take this game to go over the total

The first thing you need to do when handicapping this series is throw out the four regular season meetings. Denver won the first two, but that was before Kevin Durant arrived in Phoenix. Then the Suns won twice late in the season, but that was with the Nuggets sitting key players both times, including Nikola Jokic. 

We know both teams have a ton of offensive firepower among their ranks, but they’ll each be coming off a three days' break in between series. That leads me to believe we could see a little rust here, at least early on. 

No one is going to confuse Minnesota with Phoenix, but the Nuggets did just hold the T’wolves to an average of 105.4 points per game in the first round. For the season, Denver is #3 in the league in points allowed per game at home (109.8). The Under is 6-2 in the last eight games here at the Ball Arena. 

Where Denver struggles at the defensive end is defending the rim. But Phoenix takes the fewest number of shots at the rim of any playoff team. 

Both teams also rank bottom 10 in pace, so - with this being the first game of the series - I expect a “feeling out process” and fewer possessions than normal. 10* 

After dropping the first two games (in Sacramento) of this best of seven series, the Warriors have stormed back with three straight wins and can now, back home, eliminate the Kings in Game 6. 

Wednesday’s win made it 28 consecutive playoff series where Golden State won at least one road game, a NBA record. We all know they are a much better team at home - where they are 35-8 SU and 29-14 ATS this season.

A big key for the Warriors’ home success is that they allow just 111.7 points/game at home. Compare that to the 122.3 points/game that they allow on the road. That’s a big difference. Sacramento also allows fewer points on the road (116.2) than they do at home (119.1) though the difference is not as significant as Golden State.

In three of the last four games, the Kings have shot 29% or worse from three. De’Aaron Fox having a fractured finger doesn’t help matters. He was 9 of 25 from the floor in Game 5 including 3 of 10 from three. The team went 2 for 22 from three after the first quarter. 

The Under is 24-11 this season in Warriors’ home games when the number is 230 or higher. In the NBA Playoffs, Unders have cashed at better than 58% in Game 6/7 since 2004-05. 10* 

Jays' starter Manoah finally got on track in his last game and Castillo, the Mariners' ace, has been exceptional all season, with an ERA of 1.90 over 23 innings.  He has not been getting great run support from the Seattle offense.  In fact both of these teams have been underachieving with the bats.  The Jays have been hitting well in recent games, but  haven't faced a good pitcher since Cole (3-2 result).  Seattle is hitting below .200 as a team over the last ten games.  With a healthy total available today, I am wagering on the Under.

Both these teams have a penchant for winning on the road and the series has followed that pattern.  I think the Devils success in games three and four has more to do with A. a young team finding their playoff footing, and  B. putting Schmid in net.  The youngster has allowed just two goals in forty-nine shots..  It isn't as if the Devils are ripping up Shesterkin and the Rangers, having scored just just seven goals in four games.  These were, after all, two tough top ten defenses in the regular season, and if Jersey gets solid goal-tending again, we could see another low total.  I'm wagering on the under again today. 10*

The Miami Heat have drastically overperformed in this first round playoff series, especially at the offensive end of the floor. They’ve averaged 123 points through the first four games and you can’t necessarily blame that all on Milwaukee being without Giannis Antetokounmpo as he returned for Game 4 and the Heat scored 119, led by a sensational performance from Jimmy Butler, who had 56 points by himself. 

This is only the fourth time since 1984 that an 8-seed holds a 3-1 series lead over a 1-seed. 

Something else to keep in mind - the Heat were the lowest scoring team in the NBA during the regular season at 109.5 points/game. 

Furthermore, the Heat were also #2 in points allowed (109.8 per game). What has happened in this series is truly head-scratching to say the least.

So I will try the Under yet again. On the road, it’s more likely that Miami’s shooting will regress (than at home). Remember that both Herro and Oladipo are out. 10* 

This series heads back to Boston with the Celtics up 3-1 and looking to close things out. Both games in Atlanta went Over, but the two here in Beantown stayed Under with the big difference being that the Hawks just couldn’t score nearly as much on the road.

Dejounte Murray is suspended for Game 5 due to making contact with an official. The Hawks will miss him as he’s averaging over 25 points/game in this series. Games 1 and 2 saw the Hawks score just 99 and 106 points respectively and Trae Young wasn’t much help, going 3 of 13 from three. 

Credit the Hawks for shooting a lot better the last two games. But before that, they’d shot 33.3% or worse from three in seven straight games against the Celtics.

The Under has hit four of the last five times Atlanta has visited Boston. Also, the Under has been a very profitable wager in Hawks’ playoffs games through the years, especially in the first round. They are 41-18-1 to the Under in first round playoff games. 

Boston is an elite defensive team. They posted the second best defensive rating in the league during the regular season. 10*

The Avalanche got to Grubauer in a big way, which is not really a surprise.  Goal tending was always a question mark for the Kraken.  Seattle responded with four goals in game 3, again not really surprising, as they possess one of the better offenses in the league.  The Av's last 6  away games have all gone over, and Colorado is a tough opponent on the road.  Seattle has not been at their best at home this year.  We've reached situation critical in the series.   Seattle will be all in, and that means offense.  Colorado is tough to beat when MacKinnon et al get rolling. Look for another high total, and jump on the over today

After a high-scoring Game 1 (128-112 Lakers’ win), the last two games of this series have both gone Under the total. Memphis won Game 2 at home without Ja Morant, 103-93. But then, despite Morant returning, the Lakers exploded out of the gate (led 35-9 after 1Q) and won 111-101 in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead.

Morant got things going late in Game 3, scoring 24 points in the 4Q to finish with 45 for the game. But his teammates gave him next to nothing, combining to score just 56 points on 32.8% collective shooting. Dillon Brooks was ejected for a low-blow on LeBron James. 

Memphis will definitely shoot better tonight in Game 4. Meanwhile, the Lakers are probably due to shoot better themselves, at least from three-point range (where they’ve gone 14 of 54 the last two games). 

Keep in mind that Game 3 only stayed Under by nine points despite the Grizzlies scoring only 9 in the first quarter.

The Over is 7-3 the last 10 times the Grizzlies have been off an ATS loss. The Over is 7-1 in the Lakers’ last eight games after a SU win. 8*

Based on closing lines, every game in this series has gone Over the total. That’s primarily thanks to Miami being much better than expected offensively. The Heat have not only scored more than 120 points in all three games, but they are shooting 55% overall for the series and 50% from three.

Something to keep in mind is that the Heat were the lowest scoring team in the league during the regular season, averaging just 109.5 points/game on 46.2% overall shooting and 34.8% from three. They were also 29th in adjusted pace, meaning they played very slow. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo being out for the Bucks has dominated the headlines for this series, but the injury bug now seems to have bit Miami. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo have suffered season-ending injuries while Jimmy Butler (averaging 30 points/game in this series) is questionable and Bam Adebayo is not at 100 percent. So the ridiculous shooting we’ve seen so far from Miami in this series should definitely tail off. 

But the Heat were also one of the top defensive teams this year, allowing the second fewest points/game in the league (109.8). 

I’m on the Under, no matter if Giannis and/or Butler plays or not. We’re simply due for a lower-scoring game. There were only 101 total points scored in the second half Saturday. 10* 

Every game in this series has stayed Under the total and as a result of that, the current O/U line for Game 4 is basically 10 points lower than the closing O/U line for Game 1. 

Now, not only has every game stayed Under, but the Cavs and Knicks have yet to even combine for 200 total points! In Game 3, Cleveland scored just 79 points. That was the fewest points scored by any team, in any game this NBA season.

The lack of scoring has created solid value on the Over here, in my opinion. Cleveland won’t shoot 38.7% overall again this afternoon nor will they miss 26 of 33 three-point attempts. 

For the series, the Cavs are averaging just 94.3 points on 43.7% shooting. This is well below their season averages of 111.6 points/game on 48.6% shooting. It’s a similar story with New York, who is averaging 96.7 points on 42% shooting in this series. They average 115.3 points on 46.8% shooting for the season. 

I just can’t see the cold shooting from both teams continuing. Take the Over in Game 4. 10* 

Boston easily won Games 1 and 2 at home and I really don’t see Atlanta having much of a path for success in this series, even with them now at home for the next two games.

Perhaps the Hawks’ shooting will start to improve after they went a dismal 5 of 29 from three in Game 1 and 42.6% overall in Game 2. Their defense isn’t very good, but each of the first two games did stay Under the total and that’s the way I see Game 3 going as well.

The Celtics are an elite team defensively and finished the regular season third in efficiency. In four of the five meetings this season, Boston has held Atlanta under 30% shooting from three. The one exception was Game 2 when the Hawks finished at 33.3% (16 of 48).

Trae Young has really struggled with his shot in the first two games. He’s 14 of 40 overall and 3 of 13 on three-point attempts.

Going back quite some time, the Under is now 41-16-2 in Hawks’ first round playoff games. Tonight should be no different. 8* 

I thought the Golden Knights would make more of a game of it, but the Jets shut them down, allowing just 17 shots. Hellebuyck, who can be a game changer, wasn't even worked.  However the Jets are not always consistent, so I am not convinced of a similar result in Game two.  Will it be Broissoit in net again?  He was very good down the stretch, but allowed 4 goals with an .867 save % in Game one. 

I think we will see a better game from the Golden Knights, but the Jets have been putting up some high numbers of goals lately and scored with relative ease on Monday night.  The best option in this match-up is the total.  With a very low number available on Thursday, look for this game to go over.

After a ridiculously low-scoring Game 2 (won by the Sixers, 96-84), I like the Over in Game 3 of this best of seven series.

Certainly, this is a must-win for the Nets after losing the first two games. But I’m just not confident enough in this team to bet them plus the points. At home though, I am counting on a better effort at the offensive end after they shot 37.5% overall in Game 2. They shot 55% in Game 1. 

Both teams have been jacking up threes. Philly has hoisted 78 3PA in the two games while Brooklyn isn’t too far behind at 71. Now both were just 31% from long-range in Game 2. You’ve got to expect improvement tonight and with that kind of three-point shooting frequency, that should mean points.

This is a really low number; I believe it’s the lowest for any playoff game thus far. 

The 76ers are 12-3 to the Over after allowing 100 points or less the previous game. Game 2 was the Nets’ second lowest shooting percentage of the season and they scored just 35 points after halftime. You have to figure we’ll see better offensive numbers at home. Philadelphia is third in offensive efficiency, so I’m not worried about them either. 10* 

I wondered which goal tender would step up in the Wild/Stars series and it appears both will.  We could even see Fleurie tonight as Gustavsson did face over 50 shots on Monday. With Ek out and now Pavelski questionable, offense looks even more scarce for Wednesday.  These are two very strong defensive teams (third and sixth in goals-allowed), and with play-off hockey being generally tighter, a high total is not to be expected.  Take today's game to go under the total.

Miami lit Milwaukee up in Game 1, shooting 59.5% from the floor overall and making 15 of 25 threes (60%). I can’t see that happening again tonight as you have to remember the Heat were the NBA’s lowest scoring team during the regular season.

Plus, Tyler Herro is now done for the season due to a broken right hand. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the big injury concern for the series, however, as Milwaukee has to handicapped dramatically differently without their superstar. He is listed as doubtful for tonight. Defensively, the Bucks aren’t as good without Antetokounmpo but they will also struggle offensively against Miami, who is #2 in points allowed this year. 

The Heat’s slow pace is also key. On average, their games have been the lowest scoring in the league this season. 

Whether or not Giannis plays, I like Game 2 to stay Under. It’s mostly because of Miami’s certain offensive regression but Milwaukee is also 5-2 Under off a double digit loss at home. 10*

If there’s one first round series in the NBA Playoffs that appears to be a total mismatch, it would be this one as Boston were runaway 112-99 winners in Game 1 and are once again double digit favorites for Game 2. 

Game 1 easily stayed Under the number as Atlanta shot just 38.8% from the field including a horrific 5 of 29 from three. I expect the Hawks will shoot better tonight.

The Celtics scored 74 points in the first half of Game 1 and pretty much coasted from there. We all know about the historic offensive efficiency this team put forth in the early part of the season. They finished #2 in the league in offensive efficiency, only trailing a Sacramento team that did establish a new record in points per possession.

Atlanta generally plays no defense as is evident by the fact they allow 117.9 points/game. 

Boston is 7-2 to the Over following a SU win by 10 or more points. 10* 

The Warriors and Kings combined 249 points in Game 1, going Over the the closing number of 237.5. I expect a lower-scoring Game 2.

There were a lot of free throws in Game 1, 59 combined attempts to be exact (32 for Sacramento, 27 for Golden State). Don’t think we’ll see that many again tonight.

The Warriors have won at least one road game in a NBA-record 27 consecutive series. It’s not often that we see them trailing in a playoff series. But when they are, the Under has gone 16-6. 

The four regular season meetings between these teams saw the Under go 2-1-1. Only one the four saw more than 237 total points scored.

With the world expecting an Over (and the number has been bet up a few points), I’m rolling with a “contrarian” Under. 10* 

This is a fascinating series as the team with home court advantage (Sacramento) is a decided underdog. Since 1990, no top 3 seed has been this big of a series underdog and it’s not particularly close. 

Golden State has won a road game in all 24 series under Steve Kerr, but they were terrible away from home in the regular season, giving up an average of 122.5 points/game while going 11-30 SU and 12-28-1 ATS. 

Sacramento had the most efficient offense in the league during the regular season.

But this is a really high total for a playoff game. I don’t expect either team to play as fast as they usually do.

The Under is a surprising 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these teams including 3-0-1 here in Sacramento. This number, even after being bet down some, is still higher than any of the four regular season games. 10*

The A's have given up 24 runs in their last three games while scoring 23.  Their starter Fujinami, has given up nearly 2 runs an inning to date.  The A's sport the league's worst  also runs-allowed average to date.  Mets' starter Carrasco has struggled in the early season, also allowing more than a run an inning in his first two appearances. The A's bullpen will likely be very little help.

On offense, the Mets should have power, they just haven't shown it very often yet.  They are breaking out as I write, leading the A's 11-5 in just the fifth inning.  I am a believer in a very high score total in Saturday's match-up .  Jump on the over, and quickly.  After Friday's score this total could rise.

Since the inception of the play-in format, Unders have gone 9-3 in these games including a perfect 6-0 last year. But this O/U looks far too low. 

Perhaps oddsmakers are fixated on the fact that all three of the regular season matchups between the Raptors and Bulls stayed Under the total. There were 217, 208 and 202 total points scored in those three games. As a result, we’ve got a far lower total here than any of those previous three matchups.

Bulls’ games averaged 224.7 PPG this year. Raptors’ games averaged 224.1 PPG. Going by those averages, there’s clear value here on the Over. 

I looked through every Chicago result this season and this would be the lowest O/U for any game all season. The only two lower than 219.5 were both against Miami, who is the lowest scoring team in all of the NBA.  

Toronto has had four games this year with lower totals. Three of them were in October. The last one was two days before Christmas, vs. Cleveland, and that game went Over with 225 total pts scored. 10*