At 1:40pm ET, my UFC Total Of the Month is on Daria Zhelezniakova vs Melissa Mullins Under. The bantamweight bout between Daria Zhelezniakova and Melissa Mullins is a rematch of a fight from November of 2022. It's unlikely to go the distance due to both fighters' aggressive styles and proven finishing abilities, as evidenced by their past performances and statistical tendencies. Zhelezniakova, with five knockouts in nine wins, and Mullins, with four knockouts in seven wins, both prioritize high-paced striking and early finishes. Recall that their previous encounter at Ares FC 9 ended in a first-round TKO via Mullins' ground-and-pound. Zhelezniakova’s forward pressure and powerful striking (3.29 significant strikes per minute) clash with Mullins’ ability to capitalize on ground control, where she excels at delivering punishing strikes, as seen in her TKO win over Klaudia Sygula. Another Mullins' KO/TKO won't surprise. Both fighters’ defensive weaknesses—Zhelezniakova’s grappling vulnerabilities and Mullins’ lack of head movement—make it likely that one will exploit the other’s flaws for a stoppage before the midpoint of the third round. Play on the under.

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Jessica Andrade Over 2.5 Rounds. Tonight's flyweight bout between Jasudavicius and Andrade has a strong likelihood of being decided by the judges. Jasudavicius, a Canadian fighter, is coming off a decision victory, with 10 of her last 12 fights going the distance. Notably, all three of her career losses and eight of her 13 wins have been by decision. Similarly, Andrade has competed in back-to-back fights that ended in decisions. Given Jasudavicius' track record, she is favored to win, but a finish against Andrade is improbable, making a decision victory the most likely outcome. Likewise, with Jasudavicius having never been stopped, if Andrade pulls off the upset, its likely going to be by decision. Play on the over.

My UFC Total Of the Month is on Diego Ferreira vs Grant Dawson Over. The judges will have the final say in this one. Dawson is expected to win and 2 of his last 3 victories have gone the distance. When Dawson does stop his opponent, it's usually via submission. That's unlikely though as Ferreira, a Brazilian with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, has never been submitted. The same is true the other way. Ferreira's wins come by submission but Dawson has never been submitted. Ferreira has seen 9 of his fights go the scorecards. An interesting chess-match, this will make 10. Play on the over.

At 10:00pm ET, my UFC Total Of The Year is on Joaquin Buckley vs Colby Covington Over. Six years younger and on a 5-fight win streak, Buckley is quite a large favorite for this fight. He's a big guy for this weight class with a lot of muscle. It's possible that he gets an early finish. Possible but not likely, in my estimation. Instead, I see the veteran Covington surviving the first couple of rounds and then grinding it out, getting some control time on the ground, and taking the fight to the scorecards. The decision may still well go to the favorite but by that point, we won't care. Covington has only had 3 fights since 2021. All 3 came against high level opposition, as he faced Usman, Masvidal and Edwards. Though he lost 2 of them, Covington took all 3 of those fighters to a decision. He's gone the distance in 8 of his past 10 fights. Two of Buckley's last 4 fights have gone the distance. Each of his past 10 fights have made it past the first round. As I said, once Covington survives that first round, I like him to take it all the way to the judges. Play on the over.

My UFC Ground and Pound selection is on Reinier de Ridder vs Gerald Meerschaert under the total. Neither of these fighters likes leaving things in the hands of the judges. Gerald Meerschaert is the all-time middleweight finishes and submissions record holder. He has 37 career victories and only 2 came by decision! Reinier De Ridder is 17-2. Fifteen of his victories, as well as both of his losses, were by either KO/TKO or submission. de Ridder wants another finish and is going to go all out to get it. He said this: “A win is not enough – the top dogs finished Gerald and I want to prove I’m one of them. The ways he finishes fights, there’s a few things he’s very dangerous at, there’s a few things he does that I think I can really capitalize as well. But it’s a great matchup. I’m very happy that they’ve given me him for my first fight because he’s a veteran, he’s a real name and I think if I can put a stamp on this one, I have some leverage to start calling out some bigger names.” De Ridder should finish off Meerschaert in the first 2 rounds but if he doesn't, it's because he got stopped himself. Play on the under.

At 7:10 ET, my UFC Total Of The Month is on Daniel Pineda vs Darren Elkins Under. This will be a good battle of two old-timers. Elkins (40) is a small favorite but really it could go either way. I'm more interested in the total as I don't expect this one to last all that long. Known for having a "finish-or-bust" mentality, Pineda (39) has seen a remarkable 28 of his 28 career wins come by stoppage. He doesn't want to lose any decisions either and has promised to retire if he doesn't win tonight. Pineda said this: "All this Fight of the Night, going three rounds, they suck. Let me get in there, finish this guy, and let’s get a bonus." Though Elkins has a tendency to go longer than Pineda, he has still only seen 2 of his past 6 fights go the distance. Elkins is known for being able to take punishment but he's also been stopped 5 times. He's going to keep coming forward and it's going to lead to one of these veterans getting stopped. Enjoy the battle and go with the under.

At 9:15pm ET, my UFC TOM is on Brady Burns Over 4.5 rounds. I see this fight going the distance. Both these guys are grapplers and their respective strengths will help to cancel each other out. Burns has seen 4 of his last 6 bouts go the distance. He now has 11 decisions on his resume. Half (8) of Brady's 16 victories have come via submission and even his non-decisions tend to come late. He hasn't had a first round win since 2017. Both men win their fights via submission but neither has ever been submitted. Expect the judges to decide this one. Play on the Over.

My UFC Total Of the Month is on the Under in the Nikolay Veretennikov vs Danny Barlow fight. Uros Medic was originally supposed to fiight Danny Barlow. Replacing Medic will be Dana White’s Contender Series veteran Nikolay Veretennikov. The new matchup will make for a quick bout, most likely a quick Barlow TKO. Veretennikov's last 3 fights have all finished in the first or second round. His most recent was a 1st round TKO victory. Barlow has four straight TKO victories. Three of those four didn't make it out of the first round. This one won't either. Play on the Under.

My UFC TOM is on the Stoltzfus/Ferreira fight to go under 1.5 rounds. This fight is unlikely to go the distance. Brunno "The Hulk" Ferreira is 11-1. None of his 12 fights have been decided by the judges. He has 8 KO's/TKO's and 3 submissions. His loss was a KO.

If we look the recent Ferreira fights we see a definite pattern. Win or loss, they always end in the 1st round! Each of his last 6 fights have finished in the 1st round. A look at his entire career reveals that 10 of his 12 fights finished in the 1st round, the other two both finished in the 2nd. Stoltzfus is off a 2nd Rd submission win. Before that, he lost by TKO in the 1st round.

Ferreira wanted a different opponent but this one is a good one for him: “Unfortunately, Shara Magomedov escaped from me for a second time. We had a fight prescheduled for June 22 in Saudi Arabia, but he escaped from me and accepted an easier opponent where he doesn’t run any risk from being taken down. But fortunately, UFC found Stoltzfus, which is a great opponent to me. Just like Hawes, he will permit me to show both my striking and grappling abilities. That fight will be perfect for me to show my overall improvement for the fan." Translation. This one won't last long. Go with the Under.

My UFC Total Of The Month is on the over in the Main Event between Lerone Murphy and Edson Barboza at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. This fight could easily go the full five rounds. Barboza has been around for a long time and has some highlight reel KO's to his credit. Most of those were a long time ago though and he's now taking on a fighter who has never lost. Barboza's last fight was a 5-round decision in October of 2023. Five of his past 8 fights have beed decided by the judges.

As fights have become more difficult, Lerone Murphy is also going the distance more and more regularly. Off back-to-back decisions, he's now had 6 of them. Three of his past 4 fights have been decided by the judges. Play on the Over.

Brandon Royval is off back-to-back 1st Rd wins. 8 of his last 9 fights have ended in either the 1st or the 2nd round. Alexandre Pantoja went the distance against Moreno last fight. He won his previous fight in the 1st round though. He previously defeated Royval in the 2nd round. Royval's style makes it likely that this rematch won't last long. The Raw Dog fights with ferocity and pace. Go with the Under! ***UFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR***

The set-up: Calvin Kattar is 21-4 and Dan Ige is 14-2. Kattar is a 3-1 favorite to win this fight, but I think Ige will take this one distance. Kattar has won his first seven UFC fights and four have come by knockout, but Ige won't be an easy "out," as he comes in on top form from as far as being in shape right now, as this is his third fight since early February. 

The pick: I think Ige bides his time in the early rounds and doesn't push, instead waiting for an opportunity to score an upset after wearing Kattar down. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER 2.5 -134 Pinnacle Kattar/Ige.