Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-04-25 | Buffalo v. Liberty +5 | 26-7 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
At 11:00am ET, my Early Riser is on Liberty. The line has moved and we're now getting points with Liberty. Initially, it was the other way around. That's due to Buffalo staying mostly in tact and Liberty missing some players, including its QB. Buffalo has far less losses of players but Liberty will still arguably be the more talented team on the field. The Flames still have a highly rated backup (Ryan Burger) who will make the most of his chance to finally make his first start since the 2023 season opener for Appalachian State. Burger has the support of a top tier rushing attack. Billy Lucas who ran for 663 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, will make the most of his chance to be the lead back. Four of the past 5 Bahamas Bowls have been decided by 4 points or less, including each of the past 3. This will also be close and the value lies with the underdog. Grab the points. |
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01-03-25 | Minnesota v. Virginia Tech +10 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
At 7:30pm Et, my Friday Flea Flicker is on Virginia Tech. The Golden Gophers have a 7-game bowl winning streak but this line has gotten too high. Virginia Tech will be missing some players but the same goes for Minnesota. The Golden Gophers played 12 games and only 4 of those resulted in double-digit wins. Two of those were back in September. The Hokies haven't lost a game by more than 10 points all season. Five of their 6 losses came by 7 points or less. With a 6-6 record, the Hokies really want to finish with a winning record. This is going to be another close game. Grab the points. |
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01-01-25 | Texas -13.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 39-31 | Loss | -105 | 174 h 58 m | Show |
At 1:00pm ET, my Bowl Game Of the Year is on Texas. Happy New Year everyone! Last year, I played against the Longhorns in their New Year's Day loss against Washington. That was a very good Texas team. Washington was extremely strong though. This year, Texas is even better. Much better, as a matter of fact. Plus, the Longhorns' opponent isn't nearly as strong as last year. The Sun Devils had a great season but they don't have the talent or the athleticism to hang with Texas. The Sun Devils benefitted from a soft schedule and didn't face any teams on the level of Texas. They lost to Cincinnati and Texas Tech and they squeaked past BYU, UCF, Kansas and Texas State. The long layoff (Sun Devils haven't played since 12/7) doesn't help them either. The Longhorns, who handled Clemson on 12/21, are on a mission and they're determined to get rid of the bad taste from last year. They will score early and often and Arizona State will not be able to keep up. Lay the points. |
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12-31-24 | Alabama v. Michigan +16.5 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
At 12:00pm Et, my Early Riser is on Michigan. Getting snubbed for the playoff doesn't necessarily make getting up for this game easy. But even if we can assume that Alabama is 100% invested emotionally in this game, this is too many points. The Tide are down some players, their secondary is especially short-handed. Alabama beat Auburn last game but by "only" 14. Before that, the Tide got smoked 24-3 by Oklahoma. Remember the Vanderbilt loss? Michigan is 6-4 its last 10 games and 3 of the 4 losses were by 14 or less. The only one that wasn't within 14 was a game versus Oregon. Very few are giving the Wolverines a chance. They will be surprised when they find out that Michigan came to play! Grab the points. |
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12-30-24 | Iowa +2.5 v. Missouri | 24-27 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
At 2:30pm ET, my Bowl Bonanza is on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa always plays great defense. This year, the Hawkeyes were also quite strong offensively. Iowa scores 28 points per game on average. Missouri scores 29.1. Very close. On defense, Iowa allows only 20.1 points and Missouri allows 26.9. Advantage Hawkeyes. The Hawkeyes have been in nearly every game. Their only dud was a loss at Michigan State and they were within one score in the final few minutes. Two of Iowa's other 4 losses came by 3 points or less. The other was at Ohio State. Missouri was blown out in 2 of its 3 losses and all of them came by more than a field goal. The Tigers recently beat out Iowa for transfer quarterback Beau Pribula (from Penn State). This afternoon, the Hawkeyes get the better of them on the field. Grab the points. |
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12-24-24 | South Florida +3.5 v. San Jose State | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 155 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:00pm ET, my December Bowl Game Of the Month is on South Florida. San Jose State had a really fine season. They had very few returning starters and a new head coach. Going 7-5 and getting to a bowl game should be considered to be a successful season, no matter what happens here. Laying more than a field goal against a USF team which is arguably more talented than they are is a tall order though. The Spartans weren't necessarily expected to get to a bowl but the Bulls absolutely were. After a 2-4 start to the season, it didn't look good for the Bulls. They showed a lot of resolve though and won 4 of their final 6 to get here. With a 6-6 record, they badly want to win this game and finish with a winning record instead of a losing one. I won with the Bulls in their Bowl game last year, mentioning how important winning the bowl was to the USF program. You might remember that game, they were underdogs and they beat Syracuse 45-0! Byrum Brown threw three touchdown passes and became the second USF quarterback with 4,000 total yards in a season. Brown has been out since September but has been working hard to get back. With or without Brown, this USF team is coming here on a mission to secure another victory. The Spartans are off 3-point win, their 3rd game decided by 4 or less. Grab the points. |
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12-20-24 | Indiana v. Notre Dame -6.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
At 8:00pm ET, my Friday Flea-Flicker is on Notre Dame. Indiana has enjoyed a heck of a season. Congrats to the Hoosiers. They were exposed in their loss to Ohio State though and a road game against a very good Notre Dame team on a 10-game winning streak is going to pose similar problems. Indiana is good on both sides of the ball but Notre Dame is even better. All 11 Irish wins came by at least 7 points and 10 of them were by double-figures. Irish will win this by `10+. Lay the points. |
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12-20-24 | Ohio v. Jacksonville State +6.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
At 12:00 ET, my Early Riser is on Jacksonville State. In what's likely to be a close game, I'm taking the points with Jacksonville State. There are quite a few Jacksonville State players in the transfer portal which has caused this line to climb. Last year, players in the portal didn't play in the bowl game for the Gamecocks. They'll miss at least a few but some may play this season. They've still got some really good ones though and the remaining players are determined to finish what they started. The Gamecocks are without their coach but the same goes for the Bobcats. The Gamecocks are off a dominant victory. They won 8 games in a row at one point this season. They are thinking upset. Grab the points. |
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12-17-24 | Memphis v. West Virginia +5 | 42-37 | Push | 0 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
At 9:00pm ET, my selection is on West Virginia. The Mountaineers aren't getting much respect by the oddsmakers or by the betting public. That's partly because they just got demolished by Texas Tech in their regular season finale, a result which led to the firing of their coach. That Texas Tech result left a bad taste in the Mountaineers' mouths and they it will serve as motivation for this game. Even Wyatt Milum, their All-Big 12 lef tackle and a possible first round NFL pick wants to play: "I plan on playing," Milum said. "It's up to the coaches how much I play. I wanted to finish the season out with the guys." he said. "I felt that would be the best thing to do. So that's the direction I'm going with that." Even if he doesn't play much, its that mindset which WVU is bringing into this game. Unsettled business. The Mountaineers won 30-10 in last year's bowl. They will give the Tigers more than they can handle. Grab the points. |
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12-07-24 | Clemson +3 v. SMU | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET, my Conference Championship Game Of the Year is on Clemson. Dabo Swinney and the Tigers aren't happy. They're not happy with themselves for losing to South Carolina last week and they're not happy with hearing everyone talking about them backing in here. (After losing against the Gamecocks, they wouldn't be in this game if not for Syracuse upsetting Miami last week.) Swinney will use the talk to motivate his team. They're going to mess everything up (for the playofs) when they win too, as Clemson would then get the automatic berth leaving SMU's fate to be determined by the selection committee. Swinney had this to say: "We didn't accomplish all of our goals during the regular season, but we've got two goals left: Win the conference and win the closer. If we do that, we'll be national champions. We were the first 15-0 national championship team," Swinney said of the 2018 season. "Maybe we can be the first three-loss national championship team. Boy, that would upset some people." SMU's had a great season but Clemson has the talent to match the Mustangs and the Tigers experience here can't be overlooked. The Tigers have won eight of the last ten ACC championships. Don't forget that this game is played in Chalotte, which is only a couple hours away from Clemson. SMU is playing more than 1000 miles away from home. Grab the points. |
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12-06-24 | Western Kentucky +4.5 v. Jacksonville State | 12-52 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
At 7:00pm ET, my CUSA Championship Flea Flicker is on WKU. These teams just played a close game at Western Kentucky on November 30th. The Hilltoppers (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) won 19-17, as a 1-point favorite. Can they beat the Jaguars twice in less than a week? That's definitely not a given, these teams are very evenly matched! With the game at Amfirst Stadium, most aren't given the Hilltoppers much of a chance. The line climbed from its opener. In what should be another tightly contested game, that extra line value is a big deal. WKU got blown out at Alabama but had a couple of very close losses, including a 1-point setback at Boston College. Last week's game was decided by 2 points and last year's game was decided by only 3. Grab the points. |
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11-30-24 | Oklahoma v. LSU -5.5 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:00pm ET, my SEC GOW is on LSU. The Sooners are a strong team but today's setup favors the Tigers. Ripe for a letdown, Oklahoma comes off an emotional, bowl-clinching win over Alabama. That was at home. The Sooners are 1-2 on the road, 0-2 their last 2. Both losses came by 7 or more points. The Tigers have also had some issues on the road but they are 5-1 at home. LSU got on track last game and will be looking to build off the Vanderbilt win, which had snapped a 3-game skid. The Tigers are breaking out alternate purple uniforms for this game, which is Senior Night. They will celebrate by defeating the Sooners by 10+ points. |
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11-30-24 | California v. SMU -13 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
At 3:30pm ET, my #1 ACC Game Of The Month is on SMU. The Mustangs are one of the top teams in the country and they are going to show the world that today. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee said: "You've got the College Football Playoff, so every game matters. That's what's so cool about it now. The regular season is important. We'd like to finish well in everything we do, particularly on Saturday, to finish off the regular season, continue our momentum into the following week. Hopefully, continue to show the committee and others that we're worthy of continuing to play this year." The Mustangs are 10-1 on the season and their only loss was out of conference, a 3-point setback to BYU at the start of the season. They've been dismantling ACC teams and the Golden Bears are just the next one in line. Cal is off an emotional win over its biggest rival and that clinched a bowl. That's a tough situation and they will get blown out by the better and more motivated team this afternoon. Lay the points. |
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11-30-24 | UTSA +7 v. Army | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 99 h 10 m | Show | |
At 12:00pm ET, my Saturday Early Riser is on UTSA. Off a 49-14 thrashing at the hands of Notre Dame, the Black Knights are still thinking about what could have been. They were starting to believe that they had a chance of running the table. Now that dream is done, their confidence is shattered and they've got their game against Navy to look ahead to. That makes this a ver difficult spot for them. They're also up against a dangerous opponent playing its best football. UTSA has won 3 straight and 4 of 5. The Roadrunners last 2 losses came by 1 point and by 2 points. UTSA won its last game here by 3 points, in OT. Grab the points. |
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11-29-24 | Utah +10 v. Central Florida | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:00pm ET, my #1 Underdog Game Of The Year is on Utah. This is a lot of points to be giving a dangerous Utah team. Too many! The Utes have had a very disappointing season. The same goes for the Knights though. They also hoped for a lot more. They're off consecutive losses and are 1-7 their last 8 games. Asking them to win is asking a lot. Asking them to win by more than a touchdown is too much! The Utes still play good defense (they rank #3 in the Big 12 for points allowed and #3 for yards allowed) and still are a proud program. Three of their last 4 losses came by 3 or less and 5 of their last 6 losses came by 8 or less. This is a team which very rarely gets blown out. UCF coach Gus Malzahn said of the Utes: "They play really good defense. They hold onto the football and we're going to have to do a good job on special teams. They're really good on special teams, too." In 1-score game, give me the points with Utah. |
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11-29-24 | Oklahoma State +17 v. Colorado | 0-52 | Loss | -108 | 75 h 13 m | Show | |
At 12:00pm ET, my Black Friday Early Riser is on Oklahoma State. Off a costly 37-21 loss at Kansas, the Buffaloes are still thinking about what could have been. Oklahoma State is on a losing streak but is still fighting hard. Their 56-48 loss to Texas Tech was the 3rd time in 5 games that they lost by 10 or less. Freshman Maealiuaki Smith is listed as the starter for the Cowboys for Friday's game. Making his first career start, Smith had a very solid game against Texas Tech. He finished 26-of-36 for 326 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Smith also ran for a touchdown. He was calm and poised under pressure. Smith is going to lead the Cowboys offense to another big game. They'll trade points with the Buffaloes and hang within the generously high point spread. Take the points. |
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11-28-24 | Memphis +14 v. Tulane | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 59 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:30pm ET, my AAC Game Of The Month is on Memphis. Tulane was much better than Memphis at the betting window this season. The Green Wave were 9-2 versus the spread and the Tigers were 5-5-1. Both teams were 9-2 straight-up though. Tulane has been crushing a lot of teams but nobody has done that to Memphis. The Tigers' 2 losses both came by 12 points or less. They'd be a perfect 14-0 ATS if they were getting this many points every game! Entering the season, Memphis was rated higher than Tulane by some. The Tigers are giving nothing away talent-wise. These teams are at the top of the AAC for wins the last five years and the last 3 meetings were all decided by 10 or less. This game is also going to be close. Grab the points. |
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11-26-24 | Toledo -8 v. Akron | Top | 14-21 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:00pm ET, my MAC Game Of The Week is on Toledo. Akron beat Kent State last week. That's expected though, as the Golden Flashes are terrible and every team beats them. The Zips are still a bad team themselves. They are 3-8 overall. They lost their last game here overall. Off a loss to Ohio last game, Toledo is 7-4. The Rockets have done a great job at responding to losses as they were 3-0 straight up and 2-1 versus the spread after their previous 3 defeats. They have beaten Akron 4 straight times and none of those games were remotely close. Scores were 49-14, 45-28, 48-21 and 48-17. Superior on both sides of the ball, another big win is in store for Toledo tonight. Lay the points. |
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11-23-24 | Vanderbilt v. LSU -7.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:45pm ET, my SEC Game Of The Month is on LSU. From an ATS perspective, Vanderbilt has had a great season. LSU has not. The Tigers are still the better team though and tonight they will make sure everyone knows it! The Tigers are off 3 straight losses and they have Oklahoma on deck for their regular season finale. They need to restore order! Things aren't as bad as they might seem. Two of their last 3 losses were on the road and the other was versus Alabama. The Tigers are still 4-1 at home, 3 of those wins coming by 17 or more points. The Commodores are off a 28-7 loss last week. They were no match for South Carolina and they won't be able to keep up with LSU. The last 2 meetings saw the Tigers win 41-7 and 66-38. Lay the points. |
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11-13-24 | Akron +15 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:00pm ET, my MAC Game Of The Year is on Akron. Given the way these teams are playing close games, this is an awful lot of points. The Huskies have seen each of their last 8 games decided by 14 or fewer points. Their only game that wasn't this season was against the Western Illinois Leathernecks. The Zips have seen each of their past 4 games decided by 11 points or less. They scored 20 or more points in all 4 of those games. The road team has won each of the past 2 meetings. Last year, NIU won big at Akron. In 2022, Akron was having a bad year and was winless in MAC play. As a matter of fact, the Zips were 1-9 and on a 9-game losing streak. They came here for a late November contest as substantial underdogs. They won outright 44-12! That game will provide them with the confidence that they can come here and shock the Huskies again. NIU has a showdown at Miami next, a big game worth looking ahead to. Even if things go badly for them, they still have a home finale against CMU to ensure bowl eligibility. Like each of the last 8 NIU games, this one will be decided by 14 or less. Grab the points. |
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11-09-24 | BYU v. Utah +3.5 | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
At 10:15pm ET, my Big 12 GOM is on Utah. This year's Holy War doesn't have the setup many would have envisioned entering the season. It was Utah which was expected to be the better team. That didn't play out as BYU comes in with an undefeated record and Utah is 4-4. Don't count out the Utes though. They've won 9 of the last 10 in this series and still have an elite defense. Utah desperately needs a victory and will fight like a wounded animal. My expectation is that Utah plays its best game of the season and wins outright. A close game should also be anticipated. BYU had a recent 3-point win and Utah is off a 3-point loss. Grab the points. |
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11-09-24 | Navy v. South Florida +3.5 | 28-7 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 27 m | Show | |
At 12:00pm ET, my Early Riser is on South Florida. Navy has the better record on the season but South Florida is playing better football right now. The Midshipmen are 0-2 their last 2 games and they have been beaten by a combined score of 75-24! USF is 2-0 its last 2 games winning by a combined score of 79-46! Navy was the home team last season but the Bulls won. They held a decisive 24-11 edge in first downs. On a mission to get back to a bowl game and playing better football than the Midshipmen, the Bulls will pull off the upset on Saturday afternoon. |
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11-05-24 | Bowling Green v. Central Michigan +14 | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:30pm ET, my MAC Conf. GOW is on Central Michigan. This is too many points for Bowling Green to be laying on the road against a Central Michigan team which plays much better on its home field. With an 0-4 road record, if this game was at Bowling Green, the Chippewas would be in a big trouble. They are 3-1 at home though. As a matter of fact, their only loss at Kelly/Shorts Stadium was by 2 points. Bowling Green did win by 15 at Toledo but was 1-2 in its other 3 road games and that other win was by 7. CMU's last 3 games here were decided by 2, 1 and 3 points. This is going to be another tight one. Grab the points. |
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11-02-24 | UMass v. Mississippi State -18 | Top | 20-45 | Win | 100 | 56 h 46 m | Show |
AT 4:15pm ET, my NCAA Game Of The Year is on Mississippi State. College football may feature more parity than it once did but this game will demonstrate that there is still a massive difference between the SEC and a school from a lesser conference. Or, in this case, no conference at all. (Massachusetts will join the MAC next season but is currently an Independent.) The Minutemen are a little better than they used to be. They had back to back 1-11 seasons in 2021 and 2022. Last year, they got to 3-9. This year, they're 2-6. That's as many wins as they'll get this year though and if you look at their 2 victories, you see that they both came at home and that they were against Wagner and Central Conn. State. They're both FCS schools. The Minutemen are 0-4 on the road, 3 of the 4 road losses were by 14 or more points. They faced one SEC opponent (Missouri) and they lost 45-3. This is a game where the Bulldogs can finally snap their losing streak. They've had a long season and first year coach Jeff Lebby will be fully focused on the opportunity which presents itself to them here. The Minutemen can't effectively stop the run and Mississippi State will be gaining big chunks at a time. The Bulldogs have only been favored by more than 14 points once this season and they crushed Eastern Kentucky by a 56-7 score. They're 4-1 ATS the past 5x times that they were favored at home by more than 14. With a rare reprieve from SEC play, the Bulldogs will be more than happy to run up the score against an outmatched opponent. Lay the points. |
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11-02-24 | Air Force +22.5 v. Army | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
At 12 ET, my Early Riser is on Air Force. One look at the records tells you that Army has been much better than Air Force this season. That's reflected in this rather large point spread. The talent gap isn't as big as the spread suggests. At the beginning of the season, a popular publication ranked Air Force #81 and Army #109. That clearly wasn't very accurate but it does provide a little context. Think about the fact that Air Force was favored by -18 points when these teams played just last season. (Army scored 13 points off turnovers and pulled off the upset.) None of the past 10 meetings had spreads this big and none of those 10 games were decided by more than 21 points. We saw last year that you can throw the records out the window to some extent when these teams meet. A 2-6 Army team won outright on the road against a top 20 Air Force team with an 8-0 record. At the time Army linebacker Leo Lowin said this: “We kind of were overlooked for sure. We haven’t had a great season. We saw this as a huge opportunity to turn that around, turn that in our favor." The roles are reversed and an overlooked Air Force team sees this as an opportunity to get some payback from last season. This will be a close game. Grab the points. |
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11-01-24 | Georgia State +8.5 v. Connecticut | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
At 7:00pm ET, my Friday Flea-Flicker is on Georgia State. Close games have started to become the norm with these teams. Connecticut won by 7 last week after losing by 3 the previous week. That's 3 straight games decided by single-digits. The Panthers are on a losing streak but 2 of those last 3 losses were by 7 points. These teams faced each other last season. Favored by 2.5 points, the Panthers jumped out to a 28-0 lead and won 35-14. The Panther had a 250-50 edge in rushing yards. UConn is much improved from last year and will have better success. Not enough to win by more than a touchdown though. The close games both these teams have been involved with recently will continue with this game coming down to the wire. Grab the points. |
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10-29-24 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas State -4 | 23-17 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
At 7:30pm ET, my TD Club is on Texas State. The Bobcats have had this game circled since the schedule came out. Not only is it a nationally televised showdown versus one of the best teams in the SBC but its also a chance to exact some revenge from last year and from years of losing to the Rajin' Cajuns. Louisiana has owned this rivalry for years. Last year, the Bobcats were finally in position to defeat the Cajuns. They were up 20-7 in the 2nd quarter and they still had a 30-28 lead late in. the 4th quarter. They lost 34-30. Texas State had 530 yards of offense, more than 100 more than Louisiana. Tonight's game will be at UFCU (Bobcat) Stadium which will provide the Bobcats with an edge. Setting attendance records this season, UFCU Stadium has become a true home field advantage for the Bobcats. UTSA's Head Coach Jeff Traylor called the student section “deafening.” The Bobcats thrashed Arkansas State their last game here and they will finally knock off the hate Cajuns tonight. Lay the points. |
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10-26-24 | West Virginia +5 v. Arizona | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:00pm ET, my CFB Underdog Game Of The Week is on West Virginia. Line movement has provided us additional value with the visiting Mountaineers. WVU is off bad losses to Iowa State and K-State. Those teams are both better than the one they'll face today. They've played well in their 2 road games, blowing out Oklahoma State and losing by 4 at Pittsburgh. Though the Mountaineers have some injury issues, the Wildcats' injuries may be even worse. Should Greene not be able to go at QB for WVU, Arizona native Nicco Marchiol will be ready to go. Coach Brown said: “He’s going to get a bunch of reps, so if his number’s called he’ll be ready and I expect him to play at a high level." Arizona will be without linebacker Jacob Manu, one of the team's captains, and offensive tackle Rhino Tapa'atoutai Last week, the Wildcats got the news that starting safeties Gunner Maldonado and Treydan Stukes likely were done for the season. Arizona is off 3 straight losses and has dropped 4 of its last 5. The last 2 losses were by a combined score of 75-26. They have no business being favored by more than a field goal in this game. Grab the points. |
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10-26-24 | UL-Monroe v. South Alabama -7.5 | Top | 17-46 | Win | 100 | 130 h 20 m | Show |
AT 5:00pm ET, my Sun Belt Conf. Game Of the Year is on South Alabama. UL Monroe has the better record. But South Alabama is a substantial favorite. Hmmm. No, there's nothing fishy going on. The Jaguars are just a much stronger team. When these teams played last year, the Jaguars had a +339 edge in yards! (589-250) They were up 31-0 by the 2nd quarter and won 55-7! Bryant Vincent has done a terrific job in his first year coaching ULM and has the Warhawks improving faster than expected. But they aren't yet ready to erase such a gap in one season. South Alabama can beat you both ways. On offense, the Jaguars scored 87 points in a game earlier this season and 48 in another. Last game they showed the defense can do it too. They held Troy to 9 points and 172 total yards, only 36 yards, on 22 carries, on the ground. Playing their best football of the season and in need of a victory, the Jaguars will be too much for ULM again this season. Lay the points. |
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10-26-24 | North Carolina +4.5 v. Virginia | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 98 h 19 m | Show | |
At 12 ET, my Early Riser is on UNC. I'm always happy to take points when I feel that the underdog has a great chance to win outright. That's the case on Saturday afternoon, at Virginia. North Carolina has lost some close ones and could easily have a better record. The Tar Heels have played 2 road games and both were extremely close. They lost by 1 at Duke and they won by 2, at Minnesota. Virginia got blown out last game and is off consecutive losses. The Cavaliers are 2-2 at home but the 2 wins were against Richmond and Boston College and they were down 14-0 early and 14-6 in the 4th quarter of the BC game. Three of the past 4 meetings, including each of the past 2, were decided by 3 or less. Expect another very close game and grab the points with visiting underdogs. |
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10-25-24 | Rutgers +14 v. USC | 20-42 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
At 11:00pm ET, my Friday Flea Flicker is on Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are playing a late game, a long way from home. They're dealing with injuries and they've lost 3 in a row. Despite all that, they've been tough on the road, winning at Virginia Tech and losing by 7 at Nebraska. Also, two of their 3 losses were by 7 or less. As a matter of fact, 4 of their last 5 games were decided by 7 or less. The same can be said of the Trojans. They are off 3 straight losses and 4 of their last 5 games were decided by a touchdown or less. They are 1-4 in Big Ten play. Though banged up, these Knights are going to fight with everything they've got. USC's run defense is mediocre, allowing an average of 138.1 rushing yards per game, sixth in the Big Ten. Rutgers can take advantage. With both teams playing such close games, I will take the generous points with the visitors. |
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10-22-24 | UTEP +6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:00pm ET, my CUSA Game Of the Week is on UTEP. This is what I said about UTEP last week: "The Miners knew that they faced some challenges under first year coach Scotty Walden. They've endured those struggles and will ultimately be better for them. They've been fighting hard and a Wednesday home game against FIU provides them the opportunity to break through with a victory. The Panthers have only won 1 game by more than 7 points and that was over a month ago, at home. They are 0-3 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 16.3 points. The Miners won 27-14 at FIU last season and they smashed the Panthers 40-6 here in 2022. The Panthers need this win to help their bowl chances but the Miners need it to avoid being the first team eliminated from bowl contention. They know that a bowl isn't in their future (as the upcoming schedule includes a road game at Tennessee) but they are going to go all out to get that first win. They'll be able to trade points with FIU and have an excellent shot at the upset." Sure enough, the Miners got that upset. Off the 30-21 win, rewarded for their hard work, they are suddenly feeling good about themselves. LA Tech is not feeling nearly so good. The Bulldogs are off a gut-wrenching 33-30 Double OT loss. They are 1-4 their last 5 games and 2-8 their last 10. One of the 2 wins was against Nicholls State and LA Tech didn't even win that one very easily. With the Miners suddenly feeling good about things and the Bulldogs off a double-OT loss, I smell another upset. Grab the points. |
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10-19-24 | Rice +22.5 v. Tulane | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
At 3:30 ET my AAC Game Of The Year is on Rice. Tulane destroyed UAB in its last game. That result is one of the reasons that this line is so high. Its an over-reaction, in my strong opinion. Tulane does deserve to be favored but not by nearly this much. We've got an over-valued team against one which is flying under the radar. The Owls are playing much better now than they were at the beginning of the season but their lines haven't adjusted yet. They beat UTSA last game and they lost by only 1 in their previous game. On the subject of close games, take a look at the scores from the last three meetings between these teams. Last year, it was 30-28. Tulane may be better but Rice arguably also has a better team this year than last. Two previous meetings were 49-47 and 17-13. With a big showdown versus North Texas on deck, the Green Wave may look past the Owls. I'm anticipating another close game. Playing their best football, grab the points with the upset-minded visitors. |
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10-19-24 | East Carolina +16.5 v. Army | 28-45 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
At 12:00pm ET, my Early Riser is on East Carolina. Both Army and Navy are having strong campaigns. That should make for a good battle at the end of the end of the season. Until then, their strong seasons have brought some big lines along with them. In this case, the Black Knights are laying more than 2 touchdowns. That's too much against this competitive Pirate squad. East Carolina's loss at Charlotte on October 5th was the only blemish on a very competitive season. Prior to that, the Pirates were 3-2 with the 2 losses coming by only 13 combined points against Liberty and Appalachian State. Prior to that, their run defense was great which is highly important against Army. Having had an extra week off after the bad loss was perfect timing. The Knights get a bye after this but for now this will be 5 games in less than a month. Though these schools haven't met in many years, ECU has never lost. A close game might be just what the Knights need and they will get it. Grab the points. |
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10-18-24 | Oklahoma State +9.5 v. BYU | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
At 10:15pm ET, my Friday Flea Flicker is on Oklahoma State. Obviously, its been an amazing start to the season for the Cougars. They're 6-0 straight-up and versus the spread. They have my respect. Yet, that doesn't mean that they are more talented than the Cowboys. Recall that BYU was predicted to finish 13th or 14th in the Big 12 Conference this season. The Cougars have really exceeded those expectations but they will come back to earth soon enough. The Cowboys were projected to be a top 3 team in the Big 12. They have the talent to win this game. As a mater of fact, if these teams had played here at the beginning of the year, OSU would have probably been favored. Instead, we get more than a touchdown to work with. The Cowboys have won all three prior meetings with the Cougars. Last season, Oklahoma State closed out the regular season with a 40-34 double-overtime victory over BYU. This year's Cowboys returned 19 starters from that team. They will shock many by handing the Cougars their first loss on Friday night. |
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10-17-24 | Georgia State +9 v. Marshall | 20-35 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
At 7:00pm ET, my Thursday Hot Route is on Georgia State. We're getting more than a touchdown to work and I anticipate this being a 1-score game. Off a 1-point loss, Marshall is 2-3 its past 5 games and 1 of those wins was by 7 points. The Panthers had a first year coach who got a late start with his team. It was natural for some early season struggles but they are coming around and playing competitive football. Georgia State is off a 7-point loss. Prior to that, the Panthers had won 2 of their previous 3. The Panthers won big at Georgia State last season but the last game here was a 5-point game. Though Marshall will have success on the ground, Georgia State will be able to move the ball through the air. In what will be a competitive back and forth game, grab the points with Georgia State. |
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10-16-24 | Florida International v. UTEP +7 | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
At 9:00pm ET, my Wednesday Wipeout is on UTEP. The Miners knew that they faced some challenges under first year coach Scotty Walden. They've endured those struggles and will ultimately be better for them. They've been fighting hard and a Wednesday home game against FIU provides them the opportunity to break through with a victory. The Panthers have only won 1 game by more than 7 points and that was over a month ago, at home. They are 0-3 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 16.3 points. The Miners won 27-14 at FIU last season and they smashed the Panthers 40-6 here in 2022. The Panthers need this win to help their bowl chances but the Miners need it to avoid being the first team eliminated from bowl contention. They know that a bowl isn't in their future (as the upcoming schedule includes a road game at Tennessee) but they are going to go all out to get that first win. They'll be able to trade points with FIU and have an excellent shot at the upset. Grab the points. |
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10-12-24 | Vanderbilt v. Kentucky -13.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -109 | 108 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:45pm ET, my SEC Game Of The Year is on Kentucky. The Commodores are off the biggest upset in school history. It was their first ever win against a #1 team and the first time that they'd beaten Alabama in 40 years. If there's ever a time for a letdown, this is it. Letdown or not, the Commodores remain winless on the road. Now they go on the road to face a Kentucky team which has beaten them 7 of the past 8 meetings including a 17-point win by the Wildcats last year. Kentucky is also off a big upset as it went on the road and knocked off Ole Miss. The Wildcats have had a bye since the game though and it wasn't as big an upset as Vanderbilt just had. Plus, Kentucky had very nearly defeated Georgia earlier. They believed that they could win at Ole Miss. Even the Vanderbilt players never dreamed of defeating the Crimson Tide. In the Wildcats last home game, they thrashed Ohio by a 41-6 score. Stoops hasn't forgotten that the Commodores pulled the upset last time here. He will make sure it doesn't happen again with his Wildcats pulling away to win by more than 20. |
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10-12-24 | Georgia Tech v. North Carolina +6.5 | 41-34 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 48 m | Show | |
At 12 ET, my Early Riser is on North Carolina. If these teams had faced each other here to start the season, the Tar Heels would have been favored. Georgia Tech has over-achieved though and UNC has under-achieved. As a result, instead of having to worry about covering as a favorite, we're now rewarded with a good amount of points as an underdog. For some perspective, North Carolina was favored by 12 at Georgia Tech last season and by 21 or 22 in Chapel Hill the previous season. As a matter of fact, Georgia Tech has won outright as a double-digit underdog each of the past 3 seasons. Both the last 2 games were decided by just 4 points. The shoe is now on the other foot with the Tar Heels getting points. Former Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins is now the defensive coordinator for the UNC. In addition to badly needing a victory, this game means a lot to him and the Tar Heels. They will turn the tables and win outright as underdogs. |
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10-11-24 | Utah -5.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 19-27 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
At 10:30pm ET, my Big 12 Game Of The Month is on Utah. The Utes enjoyed a bye after their loss against Arizona. They are itching to get back on the field and will be extremely determined to avoid another loss. The Utes hope to have QB Rising back and the bye helps his chances. They've been piling up games without him though and will be fine if he doesn't play. The Utes have beaten the Sun Devils four straight times after crushing them 55-3 last season. Rising didn't play in that game and Utah still won by more than 50! The Sun Devils managed only 7 first downs and 83 yards of total offense. Utah had 26 first downs and more than 500 yards of offense. The Utes vastly superior defense will be the difference again on Friday night. |
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10-10-24 | UTEP +19.5 v. Western Kentucky | 17-44 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
At 8:00pm ET, my Thursday Hot Route is on UTEP. This is a case of a mediocre team laying too many points. UTEP isn't a powerful team. The Miners have been competitive against better teams than WKU though. They got blown out in an August game at Nebraska. That was their first game though and the Huskers are far better than the Hilltoppers. Since then, no team has beaten the Miners by more than 20 points. They lost by 18 at Liberty and by 10 at Coastal Carolina. They lost by 20 against Coastal Carolina. One could make a case for all 3 of those teams being better than WKU. The Hilltoppers are off a 1-point loss and they won their previous game by 5 points. UTEP had a 3-0 lead at halftime of last year's game and lost by 8. This one will also be close. Grab the points. |
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10-08-24 | Florida International v. Liberty -19 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:00pm ET, my CUSA Game Of The Month is on Liberty. There is a serious difference in class between FIU and Liberty. Both brought back many players from last year. For Liberty, that's a good thing. The Flames were 13-0 in the regular season before losing to Oregon on New Year's Day. They're undefeated again this season. Returning a large number of starters hasn't been as helpful for FIU. The Panthers were 4-8 last season and they're 2-3 to start this year. A home loss to Monmouth says a lot about this team. They lost their only road game by 18 points and that was against rival FAU. This is a far more formidable opponent. The Flames were involved in a couple of closer games last season but by the time they got to FIU, they smashed the Panthers 38-6. Liberty had a 520 to 211 advantage in total yards, 324-135 at half. This will be another big-time blowout. Lay the points. |
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10-05-24 | Hawaii v. San Diego State -2.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 79 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:00pm ET, my Mountain West Game Of The Year is on San Diego State. The Aztecs really need this one. They kicked off the season with a big win here against a lesser opponent. That was followed by a loss to Oregon State and then back-to-back road losses. Its taken some time to adjust to their new coach and new system but they've been showing signs of improvement though and did some good things in last week's 1-point road loss. A game against Hawaii comes at the right time. The Aztecs have won 4 in a row against the Warriors. Also, playing at Snapdragon Stadium will provide the Aztecs with an important advantage. The Warriors can be tough at home but they are winless on the road. (The Warriors only road game resulted in a 31-13 loss at Sam Houston State.) In the end, homefield will make a difference and the Aztecs will come away with the important win and cover. |
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10-04-24 | Michigan State v. Oregon -24 | 10-31 | Loss | -109 | 57 h 44 m | Show | |
At 9:00pm my Hook and Ladder play is on Oregon. This game is going to get ugly right from the start. Oregon is a national title contender. The Ducks started the season slowly but they came to life in Corvallis, destroying their instate rival. The Beavers didn't put up much of a fight at all (Oregon won 49-14!) and they were at home against their arch enemy. The Spartans, who lost by 31 last week, are no better than the Beavers and they're on the road. Oregon followed up the win at OSU by winning by 21 at UCLA. With Ohio State up next, Oregon will want to build its confidence and swagger. The Ducks are will take advantage of the nationally televised game to show the entire world how good they are. They have covered 3 of their last 4 conference home openers and will win their first ever Big Ten home opener in blowout fashion. |
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09-28-24 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State +9.5 | Top | 50-40 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:00pm ET, my Rivalry Game Of The Year is on New Mexico State. This line is very generous given that I believe that the Aggies can easily win outright. New Mexico is 0-4. New Mexico State is 1-3. Those records were expected as the Lobos have been big underdogs in all 4 of their games while the Aggies were underdogs in 3 of theirs but favored in the other. It's true that New Mexico was more competitive in losing against their one common opponent (Fresno State) than New Mexico State was. The Lobos got to host the Bulldogs though and the Aggies has to go to Fresno. The Aggies have played really well at home. They won the game that they were supposed, a 23-16 victory over S.E. Missouri State. They rallied in the 4th quarter for the victory and that will help their confidence should this one also be close in the 4th quarter. In the Aggies other home game, they only lost by 6 points in the final minute to Liberty. That's very impressive when factoring in that Liberty was 13-0 last season and is undefeated again this year. New Mexico lost both its road games by more than 20 points. The Aggies are 7-1 versus the spread the last 8 h2h meetings and the underdog is 11-2 ATS the last 13. Though the opposition was tough, with an 0-4 record New Mexico hasn't shown it can win yet. Now the Lobos are being asked to go on the road and win by more than a touchdown. The Aggies won by 10 last year and 12 the year before that. New Mexico's last 2 wins in the series both came by single-digits. This one will be close! Grab the points. |
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09-28-24 | South Alabama v. LSU -20.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 35 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:45pm ET, my Blowout GOW is on LSU. The Tigers haven't covered a spread yet. They've won 3 in row straight up though and they have been getting better each week. They narrowly missed covering in a win at South Carolina 2 weeks ago and then the same thing happened in last week's win over UCLA. Now they face a weaker opponent which is susceptible to giving up a lot of points. South Alabama gave up 550 yards and 52 points in a loss against North Texas. The Tigers are going to have a field day offensively. The Jaguars have been scoring a lot but they haven't seen a defense like this one. Things get harder for LSU after this game. The Tigers face Ole Miss and then go on the road for 2 games. Then comes Alabama. They need to take advantage of this lesser foe and build confidence by running them out of the building. That's what will happen. They will keep piling up the points and the Jaguars will be unable to match. Statement blowout for the Tigers! |
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09-27-24 | Virginia Tech +17.5 v. Miami-FL | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
At 7:30pm ET, my Friday Hook and Ladder selection is on Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes have looked good. They comfortably took down Florida in their first game and have blown out their 3 opponents since. Those results are impressive but they've also driven the line way up. The Canes are now lying more points for this game versus Virginia Tech than they were for their game at South Florida. That's giving us great value with Hokies when considering that they have far more talent than USF. Recall that the Hokies brought back 21 starters from a team which won five of its final seven games last season. The Hokies do have 2 losses but both of those came by 7 points or less. These teams have met 4x since 2019. Those games were decided by 7, 1, 12 and 6 points. This one will also be close. Grab the big points. |
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09-21-24 | USC v. Michigan +6 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 95 h 42 m | Show |
At 3:30 ET, my Big Ten GOY is on Michigan. The Wolverines' loss to Texas really put a bad taste in a lot of bettors' mouths about Michigan. Many wrote them off as a bad team after that loss. That's not really fair though. The Longhorns are very powerful this season and the Wolverines have a lot of new players and a new coach. The Wolverines had beaten Fresno State by 20 the previous week, when laying 20.5. Last week, they shook off the Texas loss by defeating Arkansas State by 10. Now, they get to reset and start Big Ten play. USC has been playing well but the defense is still nowhere near the level of the Texas defense. The Wolverines are going to have a much easier time moving the ball against the Trojans than they had against the Longhorns. The new players and coach have had a chance to play together and last week's bounce-back victory will help bring them together. The run-defense was dominant. This is the first true road game for USC. LSU was a good team but the Trojans haven't faced a defense like this one. In a game which will likely be close, the Wolverines' superior defense will ultimately win the day. Play on Michigan |
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09-21-24 | Florida -6 v. Mississippi State | 45-28 | Win | 100 | 48 h 45 m | Show | |
At 12 ET, my Early Riser is on Florida. It's been a bad start for the Gators. A talented team, they are just 1-2 to start the season. Losses were against Miami and Texas A&M. Fans aren't happy and coach Billy Napier is starting to feel the heat. Getting away will be good for them and Starkville is a great place for a first road game. The Bulldogs are a young team with a 1st year coach. They just got beaten 41-17 here by Toledo, their worst non-conference home loss in nearly years. Even with some injury issues, the Gators have far more talent, depth and experience. They will play their best game of the season and get their season back on track. Play on Florida |
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09-14-24 | UTEP v. Liberty -23 | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 6:00pm ET, my CUSA GOY is on Liberty. These teams are very much at opposite ends of the Conference-USA spectrum. Liberty may be the most talented team in the conference and is the clear favorite to finish on top. The Flames were 13-0 last season and this year's team returned 14 starters. Last year, they won by 14 at UTEP. This year, they host the Miners. Plus, this year's UTEP team isn't nearly as good as last year's. Not only do the Miners have a new coach but they only returned 9 starters. Its a rebuilding year and that's been evident through the first 2 games. Getting smashed 40-7 at Nebraska was expected but the Miners also just lost at home to Southern Utah. The Flames were tested at New Mexico State last week but came roaring back in the 4th quarter. Off that close call, they will make sure to keep their foot on the gas the whole way here. This will result in a one-sided destruction. Play on Liberty. |
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09-14-24 | West Virginia v. Pittsburgh | 34-38 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 38 m | Show | |
At 3:30 ET, my Rivalry Rout is on WVU. Not surprisingly, West Virginia stumbled in its 34-12 Week 1 home loss to Penn State. The Mountaineers bounced back nicely in last week's 49-14 home win over Albany. Now 1-1, I think WVU carries over that offensive momentum here in Pittsburgh. The Panthers are 2-0, beating Kent State 55-24 in Week 1, before last week's 28-27 win at Cincinnati as a 2-point dog. Give them credit for the comeback win but they were a little fortunate. The Backyard Brawl" and it's a highly anticipated rivalry which was renewed in 2022 after and 11-year break. This year's game will have a big impact on the rest of the season for both teams. WVU RB CJ Donaldson has 170 yards rushing and two TDs already this season and I think a relatively inexperienced Pittsburgh defense (only 4 starters from last year) will have difficulty slowing him down. He ran for 102 yards and a TD in last year's win. The Mountaineers held Pitt to 6 points and 211 total yards in that game. WVU coach Neal Brown will have his team ready to play once again. Let's go WVU! |
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09-14-24 | Alabama v. Wisconsin +16.5 | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
At 12:00pm, my Early Riser is on Wisconsin. I think that the Badgers will comfortably cover the generous number. This is the first meeting between the schools since 2015. The Badgers will be excited for the chance to host mighty Alabama. These opportunities don't come often as this is the first time the Tide played here since 1928 and the first time they played a road game vs a Big Ten team since 2011. The Crimson Tide are 2-0, hammering WKU 63-0 in Week 1, before last week's 42-16 win over USF, unable to cover the 30.5-point spread. But the Tide may be thinking they are better than they really are and easily could already be looking ahead to Georgia, who they face here after their bye next week. Understand that Bama is 0-5 ATS its last 5 road openers. Wisconsin is 2-0 SU, and 0-2 ATS. Both games have come against inferior opponents, winning 28-14 here vs. WMU as a 24-point fav, before then pulling away for the 27-13 victory over South Dakota last week as an 18.5-point favorite. The Badgers have been overvalued in back-to-back games to open the year, but I don't think that's the case here in Week 3. Alabama will bring out their best. The Badgers also have next week off before a conference road game at USC. This is a difficult place for Alabama to play its first road game and I don't think it can cover more than two TD's this weekend. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a solid cover for underrated Wisconsin. |
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09-13-24 | Arizona v. Kansas State -7 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 47 m | Show |
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09-07-24 | Western Michigan v. Ohio State -38 | Top | 0-56 | Win | 100 | 84 h 33 m | Show |
Ohio State is 1-0 SU, but it was unable to cover the ridiculous 49-point spread in its 52-6 home win over Akron last week. Now with a much "smaller" spread this week, I believe the Buckeyes will once again blow out their opponent in front of the hometown crowd this week, while also going on to cover the more "manageable" spread at the same time. It's another case of "David vs. Goliath" this week, as Western Michigan comes to town after a 28-14 loss at Wisconsin. It covered with the 24-point spread, but I just can't see the visiting side keeping pace with the Buckeyes down the stretch. Western Michigan finally returns for its first home game of the season next week, a "cream puff" vs. Bethune Cookman. Lance Taylor struggled for the most part last week, and so did the defense for WMU (especially against the run allowing three rushing TD's.) Will Howard should be even better this week for OSU after debuting with 228 passing yards and three touchdowns in the blowout victory over Akron. The Buckeyes also return seven starters on defense and as stated, I foresee WMU really struggling to move the ball at all this weekend. The Broncos are 0-6 SU/ATS their last 6 against the Big Ten. Lay the points with confidence, the play is on the Buckeyes to win in a rout. |
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09-07-24 | Georgia Tech v. Syracuse +3.5 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 76 h 8 m | Show | |
At 12:00pm ET, my Early Riser is on Syracuse. 'Cuse is 1-0 after a dominant 38-22 win over Ohio at home as a 17-point favorite. While narrowly missing out on covering the large spread, the Orange did have a lot of positives to take away. Georgia Tech managed the 24-21 upset win over FSU as a 10-point dog in Week 0, before then pulling away for a 35-12 win over Georgia State as a 20.5-point fav last week. Having covered in B2B weeks, I think the public is a little bit quick to back the visiting side here. That's giving value with the home underdog as the Orange could easily be favored. The win over Georgia State was expected and the win over FSU doesn't seem as impressive after Boston College just smoked the Seminoles. Grab the points but expect the outright win. |
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09-06-24 | Duke v. Northwestern -2.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -118 | 61 h 10 m | Show |
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09-01-24 | LSU v. USC +4.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:30 ET, my CFB GOW is on USC. I enjoy playing College Football over the first week and here we have an opportunity to take advantage of a rare Sunday night matchup between LSU and USC in Las Vegas. Both teams have new defensive coordinators after each struggled on that side of the ball. Both will be better on that side of the ball but USC's improvement will likely be even greater. Both teams are also replacing their starting QB's, with Jayden Daniels leaving LSU and Caleb Williams departing USC. Brian Kelly has won ten games in back-to-back seasons, but to get to the next level his defense will need to take the next step to ever be considered a serious CFB Playoff contender. USC coach Lincoln Reily also enters his third season for the Trojans. This is USC's first game as a member of the tough/crowded Big Ten and after finishing 8-5 last year, Riley will have his hands full trying to duplicate that success, but I really like USC QB Miller Moss, who has plenty of weapons around him, including RB Woody Marks. LSU lost many other key players to the draft last year. The Tigers have dropped 4 straight season openers and I'm not convinced that they'll be ready to go. Grab the points with USC. |
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08-31-24 | UCLA -13.5 v. Hawaii | 16-13 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 46 m | Show | |
At 7:30 ET, my Smash And Grab selection is on UCLA. Now in the Big Ten, the Bruins are dealing with a difficult schedule. Their other road games include LSU and Penn State, as well as Rutgers, Nebraska and Washington. This is the easiest of the bunch and they need to take advantage. Though Foster in his 1st year, he knows the team. He's working with a lot. The Bruins will have edges all over the field against overmatched Hawaii. The Warriors didn't come close to covering against a terrible Delaware State team. They only had 19 first downs and 331 total yards. They lost the time of possession battle by more than 6 minutes. They're not ready for a much stronger Bruins team. Play on UCLA |
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08-30-24 | Temple v. Oklahoma -42.5 | 3-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
At 7:00 pm ET, my Flea Flicker is on Oklahoma. This is a huge line yet it's not even big enough. Underdogs had their day in Week 0 but this will be a good old fashioned destruction. Oklahoma is one of the best teams in the entire country. Temple is one of the very worst teams in the country. The last time Temple played a top level offense was SMU last season. The score was 55-0. The Sooners averaged more than 40 points last season. They closed out last regular season by scoring 59 and 69 in 2 of their final 3 games. They are cracking the 50 mark again on Friday and an inexperienced and outmatched Temple offense may not score any. The Owls are 1-6 versus the spread their last 7 against ranked opponents. Lay the big number. Play on Oklahoma |
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08-29-24 | Coastal Carolina v. Jacksonville State -2.5 | Top | 55-27 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:00pm ET, my August GOM is on Jacksonville State. These teams played early in the season last year, at Coastal Carolina. It was really even (10-9) for a half before the Chanticleers went on a run in the 3rd quarter. The final statistics were quite equal. Now we get a stronger, deeper Jacksonville State team playing at home. The roles are reversed as they get Coastal Carolina, which has many new faces on the roster, playing it first road game. Rich Rodriguez will have the Gamecocks ready to kick off their season by getting revenge for last year. The line is low, all 9 of the Gamecocks wins came by at least 3 points last year. Play on Jacksonville State. |
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01-08-24 | Washington v. Michigan -4 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 156 h 24 m | Show |
Two undefeated teams, playing for the title. What could be better? For all the complaining, it ended up working out. As much as I love this Washington team, its magical run comes to an end on Janurary 8th. The Huskies were able to dominate time of possession against Texas. That's not going to happen against Michigan. They were also able to throw for more than 400 yards. That's also not going to happen against the Wolverines. Defense wins championships and Michigan's defense is the real deal. One of the best we've seen in recent years. The Wolverines held Alabama to less than 100 yards in the first half. Their 9.5 points allowed per game during the regular season was the best in the nation. These teams met in 2021. The Huskies were able to move the ball through the air but the Wolverines dominated them on the ground. Michigan went on to win 31-10. A young Blake Corum carried the ball 21 times for 171 yards and 3 touchdowns. (Haskins also ran for 155 yards.) Now its Corum and Edwards instead of Corum and Haskins, Corum leading the charge. He'll have his way with Washington and carry Michigan to the title. |
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01-01-24 | Texas v. Washington +4 | Top | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
When you get this far, it goes without saying that all the teams are excellent. Texas was 12-1. Washington was 13-0. Texas lost against Oklahoma but beat Alabama. Washington beat Oregon (twice) and USC. I backed Texas in its last game, a blowout of Texas Tech. The Huskies are not the Red Raiders. The Longhorns average 36.2 points a game. The Huskies can score with anyone though. They average 37.7. The biggest reason that the Longhorns are favored is that they are considered to have a superior defense. Maybe so. But the Huskies are better on that side of the ball than the public realizes. They held 3 opponent to 10 or less. If they couldn't stop a team, the Huskies just outscored them. Another reason that the Longhorns are favored is that Washington won a lot of close games. The Huskies won 4 games by 3 points or less. Each of their last 9 games was decided by 10 or less. All those narrow margins give people the impression that the Huskies were lucky to win some of those. I like that they won all those close games though. This team finds a way to get it done! There's also the perception, by many, that the Big 12 is superior to the Pac-12. I disagree. The Pac-12 was stronger this season than people think. There were a lot of good teams and Washington beat every one of them which it faced. The Longhorns are 1-3 ATS their last 4 tries when playing with 2 or more week's rest. Off their bye this season, they won by only 7 when listed as a 24 point favorite. The Huskies, who beat Oregon when off their bye, are 7-3 ATS their last 10 non-conference games. This game will likely be very close and I'm taking the points. ***BOWL GOY*** |
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12-30-23 | Ole Miss +5 v. Penn State | 38-25 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
SEC vs. Big Ten. In a battle of these two very good teams, give me the points with Mississippi. The Nittany Lions were great as favorites in the regular season but the bowls are an entirely different dynamic. Penn State only lost to Ohio State and Michigan but Ole Miss only lost to Georgia and Alabama. Though they weren't hurt as badly as some teams, the Nittany Lions may have more significant opt-outs than the Rebels. They will be without All-Big Ten defensive end Chop Robinson. They also had several players declare for the NFL draft. So, it remains to be seen how much action they'll see. Ole Miss had defensive end Cedric Johnson opt out but otherwise looks to be pretty much unscathed. The Rebels are 14-7-1 against the spread their last 22 on a neutral field. They're also 12-2 straight up and 9-5 ATS their past 14 non-conference games. They score 34.8 points per game and they're not going to go away. Give me the points. ***EARLY RISER*** |
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12-28-23 | SMU v. Boston College +11.5 | 14-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Motivation favors the underdog. Boston College wants to salvage some dignity. SMU feels it deserved a bigger bowl game. A game at Fenway also favors the Eagles over their neighbors from the south. SMU is a future member of the ACC. For now, the Mustangs still reside in the AAC. The Eagles are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in 6 tries against American Athletic Conference foes. Though his backup led them to a win in the AAC Title game, the Mustangs lost their star QB to injury in the regular season finale. The Mustangs last 3 games away from SMU were decided by 12, 4 and 5 points, an average of 7. This will be another close one. Grab the points! **EARLY RISER** |
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12-26-23 | Kansas -10.5 v. UNLV | 49-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Patience is a virtue. I liked Kansas from the minute this matchup was announced. By waiting, the line has come down on the Jayhawks, offering us improved value. Kansas crushed Cincinnati 49-18 last game. UNLV got brought down to earth by Boise State, 44-20. Prior to that, the Rebels had been fortunate to face a soft schedule. Kansas has beaten Oklahoma and destroyed UCF. The talent difference will be evident, as the Jayhawks pull away to win by at least 2 touchdowns. **Bowl Bonanza** |
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12-22-23 | Central Florida -4.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Georgia Tech is happy just to be here and is looking to build on next year. The last time that the Yellow Jackets were in a bowl was 2018 and they got blown out. Coach Key said: "What I want to do is to be able to get as many opportunities as we can early on to keep our guys in shape to hone their skills so we haven't lost what we've been able to build through the season. Get guys a lot of situational football, a lot of third downs, red area, two-minute, four-minute-type situations." UCF is here to win. Senior quarterback John Rhys Plumlee returned from injury down the stretch and that coincided with the Knights' hot November. This will mark their 3rd Gasparilla Bowl win in five seasons. So, they're very familiar. We saw the Bulls thrive in their home state yesterday and this venue should also favor the team from Florida. UCF dominated GT in 2022 and also in 2020. The Jackets have improved but not enough. They've struggled outside of their conference with 3 wins in their last 12 tries. Lay the points! ***BOWL GOM*** |
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12-21-23 | Syracuse v. South Florida +3 | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 35 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a big game for the Bulls. They're a program on the upswing and are thrilled to be here. USF had won only 4 games the past 3 years combined. So, getting here under their first year coach is a really big deal. They get a favorable matchup and a great venue. Syracuse was up and down this season and fired its coach. The Orange will also be without their starting quarterback. Backup Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, who threw three touchdowns and six interceptions when called on this season, is also hurt. That means redshirt freshman Braden Davis is expected to make his first start. No matter who is behind center, it won't be senior Garrett Shrader. USF coach Golesh said this of the game being played at Boca Raton: "For us to be in our home state ... I would hope there's a bunch of green and gold in the stands. It'll feel like a home game in that regard." Healthier, more excited to be here and playing in their home state, grab the points with the Bulls! ***ESPN DOMINATOR*** |
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12-16-23 | Georgia Southern v. Ohio +4 | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 91 h 12 m | Show | |
I'll take the points with the better team in this one. Rourke and some of the offensive players have hit transfer portal. Defense still matters. The Bobcats allow 15.6 points a game. The Eagles? They allow 29.6 points a game. Ohio is 6-3 against the spread its last 9 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. GA Southern is 0-4, both straight up and against the spread, the past 4 times it played with 2 or more week's worth of rest. Eagles are 0-4 against the spread last 4 times that they were off a conf. loss, 4-10 their last 14 in that situation. Rourke's replacement is a senior who can both throw and run, My play is with the points but if you're feeling adventurous, you may want to also sprinkle in a little on the money-line. Go Bobcats! ***CFB EARLY RISER*** |
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12-09-23 | Army v. Navy +2.5 | 17-11 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 22 m | Show | |
Army enters as the hotter team but that isn't necessarily a positive. The Black Knights have been out of action since November 18th. The last time that they played with more than a week off, the Knights were small favorites against Boston College. They lost that game outright. They are 21-44-2 against the spread, when coming off a bye. Navy hasn't had nearly as long a layoff. The Midshhipmen are 7-5 against the spread the last 12 times that they were off a conference loss and 16-9 ATS their last 25 as underdogs. Go. Navy! |
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12-02-23 | Boise State -2.5 v. UNLV | 44-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 35 m | Show | |
Boise State is peaking at the right time. UNLV is not. The Broncos are off three straight convincing wins. The Rebels just lost to San Jose State. The Spartans had nearly 500 yards of offense. San Jose State arguably deserved to be here, after beating the Rebels, but a computer broke the 3-way tie. The previous game, the Rebels allowed 344 rushing yards. Broncos are 5-2-1 against the spread last 8 tried laying points. Rebels 3-7 against the spread last 10 tries as home dogs of 3 or less. Lay the small number with the better team. |
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11-25-23 | West Virginia v. Baylor +12 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Baylor is playing for pride. Its the Bears' last game and it means a lot. West Virginia is already guaranteed a bowl. Baylor coach Dave Aranda knows that the Bears and their fans can really use a victory: "For the team, it would be a relief. It would be validation for working hard. When anything negative happens, you fight the attachment to all the negative things of the past. We're fighting that fight right now, and to get a win would be a victory over that." The Mountaineers have been road favorites four times the last few seasons. They were 1-3 against the spread. They were road favorites once this season and lost outright at Houston. Grab the points and look for the Bears to bring it! ***Big 12 GOM*** |
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11-24-23 | Texas Tech v. Texas -14 | Top | 7-57 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Texas needs to take care of business. No leaving anything up to anyone else. The Longhorns will punctuate a strong regular season with a statement blowout. They lost at Lubbock in Overtime last year and will get revenge from that game. Red Raiders are 2-5 against the spread last 7 tries on the road with total of 49.5 to 56. Texas is 3-0-1 against the spread last four tries at home with a total of 49.5 to 56. Longhorns are also 4-2 against the spread last six as home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points, 3-1 in that role this season. Texas wins big! **REVENGE GOW** |
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11-24-23 | Iowa v. Nebraska -2.5 | 13-10 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Motivation will play a big part. This game is bigger for the CornHuskers. Not only is it the home finale but Nebraska still needs win #6. This is the last chance. Iowa has already qualified for a bowl. With the push in their last game, the Huskers are 8-3-1 against the spread the last 12 times that they were off 2 or more consecutive losses. Iowa scores 11.3 points per road game. Nebraska scores 21.3 points per home game. Nebraska gets elusive win #6! **Eye Opener** |
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11-21-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo -5.5 | Top | 24-11 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Last week, I won with Eastern Michigan Over the total, an easy 30-27 final score against Akron. This week, I will look to fade Eastern Michigan on the road. The Eagles are only 2-4 against the spread as underdogs. Eastern Michigan, 5-1 at home but 0-5 on the road, gets outscored by an average of 28 to 13 in away games. The Bulls beat this team 50-31 last year. The Eagles want that 6th win but they won't get it. The Bulls will show they've still got some pride and close out their season with a big win. ***MAC GOW*** |
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11-18-23 | Texas State v. Arkansas State +4 | Top | 31-77 | Win | 100 | 71 h 53 m | Show |
This game is bigger for the Red Wolves than it is the Bobcats. Texas State is already bowl eligible, for the first time in nine seasons. With a win on Saturday afternoon, Arkansas State will become bowl eligible for the first time in four seasons. Doing so against a Texas State team which lately always seems to narrowly defeat them will be extra sweet. The Red Wolves have been playing their best football the past few weeks. They lost at South Alabama last week. With an advantage in first downs, they covered the spread in that game. Before that, they'd won 2 games in a row by 10 and 20 points. The last 3 meetings have all been by 3 or less., each by Texas State. Arkansas State led 10-3 going into the 4th quarter last year but found a way to close. Not this year. It's payback time! ***Revenge GOY*** |
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11-18-23 | Oklahoma v. BYU +24.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 68 h 58 m | Show | |
Nobody wants to take BYU these days. The Cougars have been blown out in 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5. Stuck on 5 wins, even most BYU fans feel that they no longer have a chance to make a bowl. And now the Cougars take on big bad Oklahoma. All of the above has already been considered and factored into the line. The line on BYU is very high and the Cougars have no pressure on them. Everyone has already counted them out. This is their home finale. They've still got that to play for. The Sooners are only 4-8 against the spread their last 12 as road favorites. They've got bigger games to look forward to. Grab all the points. ***Eye Opener*** |
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11-17-23 | Colorado v. Washington State -4 | Top | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
It would have been the hottest ticket in town if these teams faced each other earlier in the season. Colorado was the talk of the league and Washington State was also red hot. Everything changed. Both teams got brought down to size. Both teams will still really want this one though. Each is anxious to get back on track. That will make for a good game. Colorado still gets the hype because of Sanders. The Cougars are at home though and are the superior team. WSU quarterback Cameron Ward took some responsibility for last week's loss after he fumbled three times and had two returned for TDS. (He also threw for 358 yards and three touchdowns.) "I feel like I've grown in ball security, especially these two years once I first got here to Washington State but it showed up again that it's something that I gotta continuously work on. Any time you put your team in a situation like I did, it's hard to fight out of, and we did. We did end up doing that. But we didn't execute enough plays as a whole to win this game." Colorado is only 2-13 its last 15 road games. Ward will clean up the fumbles tonight and he will lead his team to a win and cover! ***pac 12 GOW*** |
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11-16-23 | Boston College v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Pittsburgh being favored in game tells us a lot. The Panthers have been bad all season. Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi will have his worst year. So, what are the Panthers doing favored? Boston College is a fraud, that's why! The Eagles were exposed last week. They got outgained by a 600 to 262 yardage mark! That was against Virginia Tech - not a team like Georgia or Michican. Eagles are 3-9 against the spread last 12 times they were off a conf. loss. Narduzzi is 7-3 against the spread last 10 in November. Panthers will play their best game and salvage some price. ***ACC GOM*** |
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11-11-23 | Air Force v. Hawaii +20 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Air Force just blew its undefeated season with a 23-3 loss to Army last week. Off that disappointing result and now having traveled thousands of miles, it will be hard to get up for this game. Having a big game against UNLV up next makes things even more challenging. The Warriors are off a 27-14 win and feeling better about themselves. Warriors are now 6-2-1 against the spread their last nine November games. They will provide a tough test for the Falcons tonight. ***MWC GOW |
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11-11-23 | Vanderbilt +14 v. South Carolina | 6-47 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt has a pretty bad against the spread record this season. That's not exactly a secret. That bad record means that many bettors are sick of losing with the Commodores and that they don't trust betting on them. The books know this. Safe with the knowledge that they're still going to get South Carolina backers at any line, they can jack the line up a little higher than it really should be. That's where the value with Vanderbilt comes in. The Commodores lost by only 1 point as 19 point underdogs their last visit here. They also gave the Gamecocks a good fight last year. South Carolina only has 3 wins. Two were by 10 or less and the other was against Furman. Grab the points. ***Saturday Shocker |
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11-10-23 | North Texas +20 v. SMU | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
The line has climbed and we're getting a lot of points with a very competitive North Texas team. Since a bad loss back in Week 1, before they really got their feet on the ground, the Mean Green have been in every game. Since that Week 1 loss, their other 5 losses have all come by 8 points or less. They could easily have won some of those and are better than their record indicates. After some big wins, the Mustangs had trouble with Rice last game, winning by only 5. The Mean Green aren't as good as SMU on defense. They do score 34.8 points a game though and have shown that they can keep up with just about anyone. They're 12-5 against the spread their last 17 road games and that includes a 2-0 against the spread record as road underdogs of 14.5 to 21 points. Overall, they are 5-2 against the spread their last 7 tries as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Better yet, the Mean Green are 8-1 against the spread the past 9 times that they were off a conference loss. With a big game at Memphis on deck, SMU could be looking ahead. Give me the points! ***AAC GOY |
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11-07-23 | Central Michigan +3 v. Western Michigan | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
I am grabbing the points with Central Michigan. The Chippewas scored 37 points to beat Northern Illinois in their last game. They've won four of their last 6. The Broncos are also off a win. Each of their previous wins has been followed by a bad loss and a 3-game losing streak. Western Michigan is bad defensively. The Broncos allow 32.8 points a game. That's tied with Kent State for the most points allowed per game in the MAC. The Chippewas won 42-30 the last time they played here. They're 6-2 against the spread their last 8 games in November and 10-4 against the spread the last 14 times that they were underdogs. They still need to win to become bowl eligible but Western Michigan realistically gave up dreaming about a bowl weeks ago. Go CMU! ***mac GOY |
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11-04-23 | UCLA -2.5 v. Arizona | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
The Bruins have been waiting for this game as they have a score to settle. Last year, the Wildcats came to Pasadena and scored a major upset. The Bruins were ranked #12 at the time and the loss effectively eliminated any chance that they might make the College Playoff. This year's Bruins are arguably better on both sides of the ball. Arizona has a reasonably good defense but UCLA's defense is on another level. The Wildcats allow 21 points a game. The Bruins allow 15 points a game. Arizona allows 342.1 yards a game. UCLA allows an average of only 277 yards a game! On offense, UCLA averages 467.4 yards a game. Arizona averages 441.4 yards. The Bruins are a dominant 7-1 against the spread the past eight times that they were listed as road favorites. Their superior defense will be the difference. ***pac 12 goy |
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11-04-23 | Ohio State -18.5 v. Rutgers | 35-16 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Rutgers has been brilliant against the spread this season. But the Knights aren't built to come back. They'll fall behind the more talented and more athletic Buckeyes. Then, they'll be taken out of their game-plan. That happens to them against vastly superior opposition. They are 0-9 straight-up and 2-7 against the spread the past 9 times they were getting 10.5 to 21 points. They're 3-7 against the spread last 10 as home underdogs of 17.5 to 21 points. Ohio State is 9-0 all-time against Rutgers. No game has been closer. 49-10 last year. 52-13 last time at Rutgers. As they always do, the Buckeyes will throttle this team. ***road warrior |
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11-03-23 | Colorado State v. Wyoming -5.5 | Top | 15-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
The Cowboys are an entirely different team at home than they are on the road. They've won all five at home but lost all three on the road. Those road games came at Boise, Air Force and Texas. None of those are easy places to win. Off consecutive road games, the Cowboys will be thrilled to be back home! They've beaten some decent teams here, including Texas Tech, App State and Fresno State. They will have no trouble disposing of a weak CSU club. I did back the Rams against UNLV but they've followed that up by getting crushed. They won't be ready for this difficult venue! The Cowboys won by 14 points last time they hosted CSU and by 10 before that. They win big again tonight! ***mwc gom |
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11-02-23 | South Alabama +4.5 v. Troy | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This was a game which South Alabama had circled as soon as the schedule game out. The Trojans have owned the "Battle Of The Belt" rivalry for five years and the Jaguars are determined to put an end to that. This is an experience South Alabama team. They aren't where they want to be but a win here will go a long way. Don't forget that they went on the road and won 33-7 at Oklahoma State. The Jaguars score 33.5 points a game. The Trojans score 27.1. The Trojans are 0-2 against the spread when playing a home game with a total in the 42.5-49 point range. They are only 7-14 against the spread their last 21 in that situation. Last year's game was close the whole way. Give me the points! ***sun belt gom |
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10-28-23 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -6.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
On a losing streak, the Bulldogs are exactly who the Tigers want to see. Auburn has dominated the Mississippi State in games here. Last time here, the Tigers won by 9. The previous game here, the Tigers won by 23. The game before that, the Tigers won by 39. Before that, they won by 8. The common theme is Auburn home wins of greater than a touchdown. Tigers are 18-12 against the spread the last 30x they were home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points. Bulldogs pulled off an upset last week but are still only 1-3 ATS as underdogs. Playing back-to-back road games for the first time this season will showcase their weaknesses. Last week's scores might say otherwise but the Tigers boast the better defense. They'll win this game by more than a touchdown. *SEC GOY |
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10-28-23 | West Virginia +7 v. Central Florida | 41-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
Grabbing all the points with the Mountaineers. The Knights gave it everything they had last week but fell just short. That's a tough pill to swallow. Knights are 1-6 against the spread their last 7 tries as home favorites falling in the 3.5 to 10 range. They've lost four straight. WVU's last 2 road games were both decided by 3 or fewer points, a 2-point loss at Houston and a 3-point win at TCU. UCF coach Malzahn knows that the Mountaineers are going to be tough: "They are No. 7 in the country in time of possession. They run the football, they get off the field, and they are good on third down. They're No. 15 in the country in penalties, so they are a disciplined team." Let's go WVU. *Road Warrior |
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10-21-23 | Colorado State +8 v. UNLV | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 56 h 42 m | Show |
The Rebels have been lining the pockets of bettors this season. That comes to an end Saturday. UNLV's ATS success has led to us getting extra line value with Colorado State. The Rams have beaten UNLV four straight times. They're 17-3 the past 20 meetings. Two of those three Rebel wins were by only a field goal. Not only is this always a difficult opponent for the Rebels but this is also a challenging scheduling spot. They just beat instate rival Nevada and they've got a big showdown against Fresno State up next. That game is a big deal due to both teams having such strong records. The Rams have won 3 of 4 and just beat Boise last game. Rebels 3-6-1 ATS last 10 as a home fav in the -7.5 to -10 range. Give me the points. *MWC GOY |
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10-21-23 | Baylor +3 v. Cincinnati | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 78 h 48 m | Show | |
Catching points with the superior team in this one. Baylor's only road game resulted in an outright win at UCF. Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS its last eight as a home favorite of three or less and 1-4 ATS its past five when the line fell in the +3 to -3 range. Baylor is 10-5 ATS its last 15 as an underdog, 4-1 ATS its last five as a road underdog of three or less. All four covers were outright wins. Cincinnati has last four straight and is 0-4 ATS its last four when off a conference loss. Grab the points. *Eye Opener |
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10-17-23 | Southern Miss +18 v. South Alabama | 3-55 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Though I respect South Alabama, I can't pass up grabbing all the points with the visiting Golden Eagles. USM was winning into the fourth quarter of last year's game and lost by 7. With the exception of a blowout loss at Florida State, no team has beaten Southern Miss by more than 18. The other four losses have come by an average of less than 11. The Jaguars haven't impressed in their two games. They lost outright against CMU and they beat an FCS opponent, Southeastern Louisiana, by 18. That game was tied at halftime. The Jaguars only 2-7 ATS the last nine times that they were off a conference victory. Give me USM. |
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10-14-23 | UCLA +4 v. Oregon State | Top | 24-36 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Grabbing points with the Bruins. The Beavers are a good team and I know they've got a great home record. UCLA remains under-rated though. The Beavers allow 19.7 points each game. OSU has given up 38 or more points in two of their last three games.The Bruins only allow 12.2. No team has scored more than 17 against them. That makes it difficult to beat the Bruins by more than a field goal. Grab the points with the better defense! *Pac 12 GOM |
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10-13-23 | Fresno State -5.5 v. Utah State | Top | 37-32 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
I feel that Fresno State is a far stronger team than Utah State. Both teams score but the Bulldogs also prevent teams from scoring. They allow an average of 18.2 points each game. The Aggies give up 32.2 points per game, a full extra two touchdowns. The Bulldogs have covered six of the past 10 as road favorites. A well-coached team, the Bulldogs are also 3-0 against the spread the past three times they were off a conference loss. They'll win this game by a touchdown or more. *MWC GOW |
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10-07-23 | TCU -6.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 16 m | Show |
This game is essentially a must win for the Horned Frogs, if they want to stay in the hunt in the Big 12. For such a situation, the Frogs draw the perfect opponent. The Cyclones had a really good defense last year. TCU still dropped 62 points on them! This year's Iowa State defense isn't nearly as talented. The offense is punchless, too. Remember that the Cyclones got hit by scandal before the season. That's had a negative impact on them. The Frogs have had trouble here in the past but that will change Saturday. TCU still has a talented defense. In four games since the Colorado debacle, the Frogs are allowing an average of 15 points. ISU will have trouble scoring. TCU (34.8 ppg) should have no problem doing so. The Cyclones were shredded for 50 points and more than 500 yards last week. They're now 2-6-1 ATS their last nine as underdogs. The Frogs, 5-1-1 ATS their last seven as road favorites, will be too much for their hosts. A motivated TCU team puts it all together and wins by double-digits. *Big 12 GOY |
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10-07-23 | Old Dominion v. Southern Miss -1.5 | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 56 m | Show | |
Things haven't gone well for the Golden Eagles but this is an OId Dominion team which they can handle. They may have struggled in the underdog role but the Golden Eagles are 7-3 ATS, 8-2 SU the last 10 times that they were favored. ODU is 4-8 ATS last 12 times line ranged from -3 to +3. The Monarchs are just 9-25 their last 34 games in the month of October. This is not a strong ODU team. Now in the Sun Belt, the Golden Eagles and Monarchs met twice when they were in CUSA. The home team won both. The home team will win again on Saturday. |
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10-04-23 | Jacksonville State v. Middle Tennessee State -3 | Top | 45-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
The Gamecocks have the better record. Yet, the Blue Raiders are favored. Given that setup, it's not all that surprising that money came in on the underdog which brought the line down a little. Middle Tennessee was installed as the favorite for a reason, as this is a good matchup for the Blue Raiders. The Gamecocks are 1-1 on the road. They got beaten badly at Coastal Carolina and they needed OT to win at Sam Houston State. That came against the BearKats who were previously 0-3 and had been scored only 10 points, while giving up 65. Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium is a far more difficult venue. Look for the Blue Raiders to play their best game as they bounce back and improve to 6-3 ATS the past nine times that they were coming off a conference loss. *CUSA GOY |
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09-30-23 | Illinois +1 v. Purdue | Top | 19-44 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
With essentially no pointspread to worry about, we can just focus on picking the winner. With that being the case, I'll gladly back Illinois. The Boilermakers did win at Virginia Tech. That's not as impressive as it sounds though. The Hokies aren't very strong this season. Since then, the Boilermakers have suffered b2b blowout losses. This is an inexperienced team with a coach in his first year. After Purdue scored the big upset at Champlain last year, the visitor is 4-1 SU and ATS in this series. Bret Beilema knows how costly last year's loss to the Boilermakers was. He can't afford to let the same thing happen. The Illini are 8-3 ATS their last 11 on the road. They'll build momentum off last week's victory and avenge last year's loss. *Big Ten GOY |
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09-30-23 | UL-Lafayette v. Minnesota -10.5 | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
Gophers happy to be home after dropping b2b road games. They're 2-0 here with wins over Eastern Michigan and Nebraska. They beat EMU by 19 as 20-point favorites. This line is much lower than that one but the Gophers are fully capable of winning by at least that many again. Cajuns are playing their third road game in four weeks and facing their toughest opponent yet. It will catch up with them. Expect the Gophers' advantages to be clearly evident and for them to improve to 12-8 ATS (18-2 SU) the last 20 times that they were home chalk of -10 to -14.5 points. *12 ET Blowout |
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09-29-23 | Cincinnati v. BYU +1.5 | Top | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
I always like getting points with the superior team. Even more when my team is playing at home. These teams are both new to the Big 12 this season. Both came up short in their conference opener. The ground game may have struggled but the Cougar passing attack is clicking on all cylinders. Expect another big day through the air against an inexperienced and vulnerable Bearcat secondary. This is not an easy place to play. The Cougars have outscored opponents 41-15 in going 2-0 here so far. They're 11-3 straight-up their last 14 here, 3-0 when the total fell in the 42.5 to 49 range. The Bearcats have played pretty well but they're still a team which lost a lot from last year and which has a new coach. It catches up with them in Provo, Fright night. BYU scores the minor upset in its Big 12 home opener! *Big 12 GOM |
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09-23-23 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh +7.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The talent gap between these teams is a lot less than many realize. A few weeks ago, Pittsburgh might have been favored for this game. The Tar Heels are tough but the Panthers are better than their 1-2 record suggests. Speaking of Pittsburgh's 1-2 w/l mark, the Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS The past six times that they faced a team with a losing record. The Panthers gave the Tar Heels all that they could handle each of the past two meetings here. Both went to OT. Both were won by Pitt. In fact, the home team is 4-0 ATS the past four in the series. With the Tar Heels just 3-9 ATS the past 12 times that they were road favorites in the 9.5-12 range, grab the points with the home underdog Panthers. *ACC GOY |