|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|07-25-20||Darren Till v. Robert Whittaker -130||Top||0-1||Win||100||15 h 36 m||Show|
FIGHT OF THE WEEK (UFC) - TILL VS WHITTAKER - FIGHT ISLAND 3 MAIN EVENT
I like Robert Whittaker as a favorite over Darren Till in this Middleweight fight on UFC Fight Island 3.
Whittaker is 20-5 in his MMA career and 11-3 in the UFC. He took a loss to Middleweight title holder Israel Adesanya in his last fight but should do better here against Till who is 18-2-1 in his MMA career and 6-2-1 in the UFC.
It's unlikely we'll see much fighting on the ground as Till averages 0.66 of takedowns and Whittaker 0.36.
Whittaker should have a decent advantage standing as he has more weapons and averages a solid 4.77 significant strikes per minute. While Till has a powerful left hand, note that he is landing just 2.41 significant strikes per minute.
Till's chance of winning is hitting a big strike, but I expect Whittaker to grind him down with his accuracy.
10* play on Robert Whittaker.
|07-18-20||Joseph Benavidez v. Deiveson Figueiredo -210||0-1||Win||100||37 h 35 m||Show|
FIGHT ISLAND 2 MAIN EVENT - BENAVIDEZ VS. FIGUEIREDO
Deiveson Figueiredo defeated Joseph Benavidez by TKO in a title fight back in February. I think he'll do it again here in the Main Event at UFC Fight Island 2.
Figueiredo owns a 7-1 record in the UFC (18-1 MMA record), suffering his only loss at the hands of Jussier Formiga in 2019. As he's not a particularly strong striker he'll be looking to take this fight to the ground, but while Benavidez (15-4 UFC, 28-6 MMA record) is more a slugger with decent knockout power, he's still very much hit-or-miss.
Figueiredo is slightly younger (32 vs 35) and has a physical advantage including three inches longer reach. I'm happy to back the favorite Figueiredo to defeat Benavidez for a second straight time.
8* play on Deiveson Figueiredo.
|07-12-20||Jorge Masvidal v. Kamaru Usman OVER 4.5||Top||0-5||Win||105||25 h 32 m||Show|
FIGHT OF THE MONTH - UFC 251 MAIN EVENT - TOTAL ROUNDS
I think we'll see an evenly contested fight, likely to go the distance, when Kamaru Usman clashes with Jorge Masvidal in the UFC 251 Fight Island main event on Saturday.
Usman is a perfect 11-0 in the UFC and the reigning Welterweight division champion. He is a well-rounded fighter who is riding a 15-fight win streak and won his last fight by TKO in the 5th round when he defended his title against Colby Covington back in December of 2019.
As for Jorge Masividal, he owns an MMA record of 35-13, 12-6 in the UFC. He has won three straight fights and defeated Nate Diaz by TKO in November of 2019 in his last fight.
While Masvidal is coming in on short notice as a replacement for Gilbert Burns who tested positive for COVID-19, keep in mind that Usman will also need to adjust his gameplan.
Additionally, this is a fight Masvidal has been looking forward to for a long time and he has reportedly never stopped preparing for a potential scrap opposite Usman.
"It’s short notice, because he didn’t have the contract signed, but let me tell you what: This guy was there my whole training camp," Dustin Poirier said on "THE FIGHT with Teddy Atlas." "He was my main sparring partner. We probably put in five weeks of sparring together. He flew in wrestlers, the best wrestlers in the world."
I think the bookmakers have juiced up the moneyline on Usman too much because of the short notice change, but he is undoubtedly the better fighter. That being said, while Usman is likely to dictate the fight, he will most likely find it tough to break through Masvidal's excellent defense, and I like the over in this bout.
10* play on OVER 4.5 (you'll find Over 3.5 at about -115 at some books which also is a good bet).
|07-11-20||Roman Bogatov v. Leonardo Santos -172||0-3||Win||100||21 h 50 m||Show|
UFC FIGHT ISLAND BOOKIE BLA$TER
I like Leonardo Santos to defeat Roman Bogatov in this UFC Lightweight division fight in UFC 251 on Saturday.
Santos last fought a year ago when he knocked out Stevie Ray in the first round at UFC Stockholm to make it 17-3-1 in his MMA career with a 6-0-1 mark in the UFC. He has not lost a fight since 2009, and here he'll face a 29-year-old Bogatov who will make his UFC debut here after a successful spell on the M-1 Global circuit.
While Bogatov is an undefeated 10-0 in M-1, I'm not sure he's ready for what's to come here against a 40-year-old veteran who knows the drill.
Bogatov is a submission specialist who will try and get Santos on his back, but he might struggle to keep his Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist opponent down. Santos has a clear edge on the feet, and I'm happy to take the more well-rounded veteran at this price.
8* play on Leonardo Santos.