Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-10-22 | Fiorentina v. Napoli UNDER 2.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
10* Under Fiorentina/Napoli (9:00 AM ET): Napoli does not own the best goal differential in Serie A (reigning Scudetto holders Inter Milan does), but the Partenopei are closer to the summit than Inter is, just one point behind AC Milan entering Sunday. Napoli has not finished first in Serie A since 1990, so this title pursuit is quite serious. They come into this fixture with Fiorentina on a three-match win streak, but have actually won only three of their last eight at home. Fiorentina figures to be a tough test here. Fiorentina is also in the mix for European football next season as they are currently eighth in the table. While catching the top four is probably out of the question, they are just two points back of finishing sixth, which would mean Europa League qualifying. The Viola have taken 14 points from their last seven matches and are coming off a 1-0 win over Empoli last week. Though Fiorentina has conceded in each of their last 11 matches away from home and Napoli has scored at least twice in each of the last three meetings, I look for this to be a relatively low-scoring fixture. These are the top two teams in possession in Serie A. Napoli has conceded the fewest goals this season and Fiorentina allows the fewest shots per 90 minutes. Fiorentina has also conceded no more than one goal in each of its last five competitions with two clean sheets. Pace should be slow here. 10* Under Fiorentina/Napoli |
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04-09-22 | Kings v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 | Top | 98-117 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
10* Under Kings/Clippers (9:40 ET): With three games still to play, the Clippers are already locked into the 8-seed in the Western Conference. They know that they’ll be facing the T’wolves in the play-in tournament with the winner moving on to the playoffs proper. The loser will get a second chance against the Pelicans-Spurs winner. Sacramento, as per usual, fell out of contention long ago. It’s all about pride for them at this point, but they’ve shown little of that lately with B2B double digit losses at home. The Kings actually haven’t played since Tuesday when they fell 123-109 to New Orleans. They shot 51% from the field, but it wasn’t enough as they allowed the Pelicans to shoot the same percentage with more attempts. I don’t think we’ll see that kind of combined shooting in this game. Sacramento is without De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, who are their top two scorers. These division rivals haven’t met since December when they played three times. This total is much higher than any of those three previous meetings. The total number of points scored across the three meetings decreased every game, culminating with only 194 being scored in the last one. The Clippers, who are due for some offensive regression, have also held their last two opponents to a combined FG% below 40.0. Both of these teams are in the bottom seven in offensive efficiency. 10* Under Kings/Clippers |
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04-08-22 | Knicks v. Wizards OVER 220.5 | Top | 114-92 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
10* Over Wizards/Knicks (7:10 ET): Consider this a “battle for 11th place” in the Eastern Conference, although that’s a relatively meaningless distinction as you need to finish top 10 to qualify for the play-in round. So it’s little more than “pride” on the line Friday night when the Knicks and Wizards take the court. These teams have met two times previously this season. The first was on X-Mas Day and they blew past the total (208) with the Wiz winning 124-117 as 2.5-point underdogs. The total was much higher for the rematch last month (225.5) and that time they didn’t come close to matching it as the Knicks won 100-97. Now this play is a departure from the last time I played the total with the Knicks, which was just two days ago when they lost to the Knicks 110-98. That didn’t even come close to going Over as the number closed at 230. Glad I had the Under then. The Under is now 6-1 in the Knicks’ last seven games as they remain one of the lowest scoring teams in the NBA. But here they’re matched up with a team that plays little to no defense. Washington is allowing 117.8 PPG over its last five contests and like the Knicks, the O/U line for the Wizards’ last game was much higher than this one. So was the previous game, for that matter. Washington had gone Over in four straight before losing to Atlanta 118-103 on Wednesday. Now that final score would have obviously gone over this total. The previous four Wizards’ games all saw a minimum of 237 total points scored. In four of their last seven games, they have scored 123+ pts. Expect the Knicks to shoot better here than they did on Wednesday (just 38.6%) when they scored just 31 points in the second half. The Over is 7-1 the L8 times NY has been off a DD loss at home. The Wizards will shoot better from three tonight compared to the Atlanta game when they were just 10 of 35. They also attempted only 11 free throws in that game. They are 9-1 Over L10 home games. 10* Over Wizards/Knicks |
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04-07-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* Over Padres/D’backs (9:45 ET): New for 2022 is a universal DH across Major League Baseball. So no more pitchers coming up to the plate in National League games. Theoretically, that should lead to an increase in scoring across the Senior Circuit. Time to put this theory to the test on Opening Day when the Padres take on the D’backs. San Diego was a big disappointment last season, finishing 79-83. They were SUPPOSED to compete with the Dodgers for the NL West pennant. Meanwhile, no one expected much from Arizona in 2021 and sure enough the D’backs lost 110 games. Only the Pirates and Orioles had worse run differentials. I am expecting the Padres to bounce back this year and earn a Wild Card spot (remember there are now THREE WC spots up for grabs). They actually had a positive run differential (+21) last season, so they were better than their record. Offensively, they weren’t where they wanted to be, but they did finish top 10 in OBP. Now Fernando Tatis Jr suffered a wrist fracture and will miss three months, which is a significant blow. But I still expect San Diego to put plenty of runs on the board here as Madison Bumgarner (who they know well), tonight’s starter for Arizona, has seen better days. Arizona gave up the most runs in the NL (893) last season and second most in MLB (only Baltimore allowed more). Bumgarner had a rough finish (1-6 TSR final seven starts) and ended up with a 4.67 ERA. Now we’re also going to need the D’backs to score some runs tonight and thankfully they’re up against Yu Darvish, who also had a poor finish to 2021 and was much worse on the road than he was at Petco Park. Darvish started twice at Chase Field last season and those outings did NOT go well (both went Over) as he allowed a total of 10 runs and lasted just 2 ⅔ IP each time. 10* Over Padres/D’backs |
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04-07-22 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 227.5 | Top | 101-128 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
9* Over Magic/Hornets (7:10 ET): I don’t expect much defense to be played in this Thursday NBA tilt. Certainly Charlotte hasn’t been playing good defense recently. They’ve allowed 144 points in B2B games, which is absolutely abysmal yet this is the team with the worst scoring defense in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets allow 115.1 PPG for the season, so they should feel rather fortunate to be heading for the play-in tournament next week where they’ll likely have to win twice. Of course, being a top five team offensively (114.8 PPG) is why they’ve still got a shot at making the playoffs. Orlando just hung 120 on Cleveland Tuesday in an admittedly uncharacteristic show of offensive strength. The Magic will NOT be heading to the postseason this year; in fact they’re all but guaranteed at finishing in the basement of the Eastern Conference. That win over Cleveland snapped a six-game losing streak and came on the heels of two sorry offensive efforts where they failed to score 90 points in consecutive games. We probably can’t count on the Magic scoring 120 again tonight, but consider their defense is lousy (112.0 PPG allowed this season) and five of their last seven opponents have scored at least 114. Whomever the road team has been, they have won the previous three head to head meetings this season. After losing to the Hornets twice at home early in the season, the Magic returned the favor with a 116-109 win here in Charlotte back in January (as 11-point underdogs!) While the Magic are not an offensive juggernaut, it should be pointed out that the Hornets have allowed the last two opponents to shoot 59% from the field overall and make 44 three-pointers. On average, no other team in the league plays higher scoring games than Charlotte (229.9 PPG). 9* Over Magic/Hornets |
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04-06-22 | Celtics v. Bulls UNDER 223 | Top | 117-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* Under Celtics/Bulls (8:10 ET): Boston has been scoring A LOT of points recently. They are coming off a 144-point effort (against Washington) on Sunday (I won with the Over) and before that won 128-123 over Indiana. Robert Williams is out (until at least the second round of the playoffs), but the Celtics certainly haven’t skipped a beat offensively as they shot a blistering 61.5% vs. the Wizards and made 23 three-pointers! They can’t possibly repeat that performance tonight in Chicago as it’s a “packed” injury report for this evening. Brown, Tatum and Horford are probable. But, in addition to Williams, Morgan and Stauskas are also out. Look for some serious offensive regression from the C’s tonight. I say that knowing full well how the Bulls have struggled defensively the last few games, and really the entire second half of the season. Chicago has given up 127+ points in each of its last three games, including a 127-106 loss last night to Milwaukee here at home. Lonzo Ball’s season is likely over with, but it’s not all bad for the Bulls as they did clinch a top six spot in the playoffs (due to Cleveland losing), so they’ll avoid the play-in tournament. But this team has little “momentum” (still hate that word) heading into the postseason. I’d argue they are the weakest of the 10 teams still viable in the East Seeding is all that’s on the line for these two teams in the last few remaining games. Chicago is expected to get Zach LaVine back after he sat out last night. But, other than DeMar DeRozan, the rest of LaVine’s teammates did very little against Milwaukee. Take away DeRozan’s numbers and the Bulls shot just 36% last night. Boston is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and allows only 104.3 PPG. They are 8-2 Under this season when playing on exactly two days' rest. The Bulls are 4-0 Under their L4 times in a back to back. 10* Under Celtics/Bulls. |
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04-06-22 | Nets v. Knicks UNDER 229.5 | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
8* Under Nets/Knicks (7:40 ET): I’m going with the Nets Under again after cashing that particular wager last night. The total closed at a very high 244.5 last night vs. Houston, a season-high for the Nets. The O/U result was never really in doubt as the game ended 118-105 in Brooklyn’s favor. That was a needed win for the Nets, who are looking to finish 8th in the East as that would mean they’d only need to win once in the play-in tournament (which they are now guaranteed to be a part of). It’s another also-ran on the docket for tonight as the Nets will face a Knicks team that is eliminated from playoff contention. New York hasn’t played since Sunday - when they crushed Orlando 118-88 in an utterly meaningless game. So they’ll have the significant rest advantage coming into this game. Despite losing all three times, the Knicks have played the Nets tough this year as the three losses have been by a combined 10 points, none greater than five. Also, the most combined points in any of the games was 222. Tonight’s O/U line is notably higher than any of the three previous meetings. Now Kyrie Irving, coming off a 42-point game last night is now in the mix. But let’s see how he does in a rare back to back. My guess is that he won’t be as prolific as last night. He’d shot just 26% the previous five games. The Nets are also short-handed right now without Curry, Dragic and Johnson. (Note: there is a chance Dragic and/or Johnson could suit up). This team has been really bad on the second night of a back to back this season, going just 2-11 SU and averaging 106.7 PPG. The Knicks are one of the league’s lowest scoring teams at 106.5 PPG (27th) and also are tied for 27th in pace. For both teams, the Under is 5-1 in their last six games. 8* Under Nets/Knicks |
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04-05-22 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 234.5 | Top | 116-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
8* Under Spurs/Nuggets (9:10 ET): A San Antonio team that has actually outscored its opponents this season (despite being 12 games below .500!) deserves to make the play-in round. After winning six of seven, the Spurs are now 10th in the West, two games up on the floundering Lakers. The remaining schedule will not be easy though; as they face four of the top six teams in the Conference. The status of leading scorer Dejounte Murray (illness) remains in question for tonight. While the Spurs won their last game without him, they won’t have the luxury of facing Portland again here on Tuesday. While the Spurs are simply trying to scrape their way into the play-in tournament, the Nuggets are hoping to avoid that exercise entirely. Denver is currently fifth, two games up on seventh place Minnesota. All they are looking to do is finish in the top six. Led by reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, points have been plentiful of late as the Nuggets have scored 125+ points in five of the last seven games. The Over is 8-2 the L10 games. But the shooting we’ve seen from them over the L3 games (62.5%, 53.5% and 57.3%) is certainly due to subside. For the year, their games average 222.3 PPG, which is well below tonight’s O/U line. San Antonio hopes to have both Murray and Jakob Poeltl back in the lineup tonight. Regardless, I don’t think the Spurs will keep scoring at the level we’ve seen recently. They’ve gotten to face Portland three times in the last seven games, not to mention Houston (who is 30th in scoring defense). The Under is 16-5 in the Spurs’ last 21 games following an ATS win and 6-1 the L7 times they’ve been off a double digit win. As I already mentioned, Denver is unlikely to keep up its FG% from the L3 games, so I’m rolling with the Under on this high total. 8* Under Spurs/Nuggets |
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04-05-22 | Rockets v. Nets UNDER 244 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
10* Under Rockets/Nets (7:40 ET): This is an absurdly high total, even for a matchup of the team that plays the worst defense in the NBA (Houston) and one of the more prolific offensive squads (Brooklyn). We’ve obviously seen some high scoring games involving the Nets recently. However, with these high totals, the Under is actually 4-1 their L5 games. Only one of those five contests would have gone Over tonight’s total, which is the highest O/U line yet for a Nets game this season! I’m taking the Under here. Even Houston having given up an average of 120.6 points over its last five games doesn’t have me too concerned here. For the season, they give up 118.1, most in the league. The last four games have all gone Over, but that’s with the Rockets averaging over 120 PPG themselves, which is well above their season average. For the year, the team is averaging 107.4 PPG on the road. So I expect some real offensive regression from the road team in this one. In their last game, they shot 56.5% from the field. That won’t happen again here. The Rockets are 17-4 Under after a game where they scored 130+ points, including 3-0 this season. Speaking of “offensive regression,” Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant will not be matching his scoring output from Saturday’s game in Atlanta where he had 55 points (in a loss!). The Nets also could be without Seth Curry, Bruce Brown and Goran Dragic for tonight’s game. Kyrie Irving is shooting just 26.6% his L5 games. As a team, Brooklyn averages fewer PPG at home than on the road. On the bright side, the Nets won’t be sending Houston to the free throw line 49 times like they did against Atlanta. The Nets should win this one easily and the game likely being a blowout should mean fewer points in the fourth quarter, helping our cause. 10* Under Rockets/Nets |
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04-05-22 | Atletico Madrid v. Manchester City UNDER 2.75 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Atletico Madrid/Manchester City (3:00 ET): Atletico Madrid won’t be repeating as La Liga champions this season, but they are in the final eight of the Champions League, facing reigning Premier League champion Manchester City. Atletico ousted Manchester United from this competition in the Round of 16, winning 1-0 at Old Trafford to progress 2-1 on aggregate. Making it successive wins over a Premier League side would be quite the accomplishment for Diego Simeone’s side. They are away for the first leg, thus I’m expecting a relatively cautious approach from them. But I don’t think Atletico is going to concede multiple goals either. They sure haven’t lately. Man City has a huge showdown on deck this weekend in the EPL where they will welcome Liverpool here to Etihad Stadium with first place on the line. So, believe it or not, this Champions League tie may not have the Citizens’ full attention. While they made it to the Final of this competition last season (lost to Chelsea), the previous three years all saw Man City ousted in the round of eight. But, as is the case with Atletico, the one thing I am confident in here with Man City is that they won’t be conceding multiple goals here either. They’ve conceded an EPL-low 18 goals this season and in the Round of 16 of this competition, Man City didn’t concede a single goal to Sporting CP. While Man City did score five times in the away leg vs. Sporting, it was a 0-0 draw here at the Etihad. Atletico is second in xGA (expected goals allowed) in La Liga and has conceded no more than one goal in each of the last four UCL fixtures. City created only 2.9 xG (expected goals) in the two legs vs. Sporting. Again, Atletico is likely to play cautiously here and be willing to take the draw as the second leg is in Madrid. The pace of this match should be quite slow with City dominating possession, but not creating many scoring chances. 10* Under Atletico Madrid/Manchester City |
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04-04-22 | Bologna v. AC Milan UNDER 2.75 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
8* Under Bologna/AC Milan (2:45 ET): AC Milan will enter matchday 31 level with Napoli (66 points) for first place in Serie A. So any points will put them back on the table here. (It should also be noted that Inter could within three of the summit, depending on how they fare Sunday vs. Juventus. That result was not final as of press time). The Red & Blacks have not won the Scudetto since 2011, but they come into April in fine form, having won three straight in the league by the same 1-0 score. Milan defeated Napoli, Empoli and Cagliari during that time. Napoli was obviously a huge win while taking the full three points from the other two was certainly expected. It’s another opponent from the bottom half of the table Monday. In my analysis for Saturday’s 10* Game of the Week winner on Torino, I spoke of the gap that exists in goal differential between the top 11 and bottom nine in Serie A. Bologna is on the wrong side of the gap, now in 13th, after Udinese won yesterday. It has been a poor run of form for the Red and Blues in 2022 as they have just one win since Dec 22! Over their last 10 matches, Bologna has lost seven times and scored a total of just five goals. They were goalless in March, but on the bright side they conceded only twice in the last three matches. When it comes to goal scoring, Bologna has been especially reliant on set pieces this season. They figure to not get many opportunities here against AC Milan, who have conceded the fourth fewest number of goals in Serie A this season after not conceding a single time in March. But Bologna is no defensive pushover; their defensive record is in the top half of the league. One thing I find interesting is that only 23 of AC Milan’s 56 goals this season have come here at San Siro. But Bologna has only 14 goals on its travels. 8* Under Bologna/AC Milan |
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04-03-22 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 222.5 | Top | 102-144 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
8* Over Wizards/Celtics (1:10 ET): I believe Boston is the favorite to come out of the Eastern Conference (for the NBA Finals), but for now the team is going to miss Robert Williams, who was one of their best defenders. Williams is out until at least the start of the second round of the playoffs after suffering a torn meniscus last weekend. Without him, the Celtics dropped two in a row, losing to Toronto (in OT) and Miami. But they bounced back on Friday with a 128-123 win over Indiana. Still, in three of the last four games, Boston has surrendered 110 or more points. They’ll be challenged again defensively here, facing a team that has put up 262 points its last two games. While Boston is battling for a high seed in the East, Washington has officially been eliminated from playoff contention. But the Wizards aren’t rolling over. They’ve won four of five and just destroyed Dallas 135-103 on Friday. They had a pair of 41-point quarters in that game and got a season-high 35 points from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. While I do not anticipate the team will be able to match its hot three-point shooting from the last game (17 of 33), at the same time the Wiz are also probably due for some defensive regression. Dallas shot only 29% from beyond the arc on Friday. The Wiz typically allow a much higher percentage. I know that none of the previous nine head to head meetings have gone Over in regulation. But this is a prolific Boston team still hoping to finish first in the East. They are currently third in the East, two games behind first place Miami and just a half game behind second place Milwaukee. They are also just a half game ahead of fourth place Philadelphia. The Celtics have scored 124 or more points in six of its last eight games. Washington has scored 123 or more in three of its last four games. The Celtics are 3-0 Over as home favorites of 12.5 or more points this season while the Wizards are 4-0 Over their L4 games following a SU win by 10+ points. 8* Over Wizards/Celtics |
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04-03-22 | Rayo Vallecano v. Granada OVER 2.25 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
10* Over Granada/Rayo Vallecano (12:30 ET): Granada actually finds themselves at the bottom of the league in xPts (expected points) after being bottom three in that metric last season. Somehow they may again avoid relegation, although as of press time they are just two points clear of the drop zone in La Liga and that’s after a last gasp win over last place Alaves two weeks ago when the game winner came five minutes into stoppage time. That wild 3-2 victory snapped a 10-match winless run in the Spanish top flight and there’s still clearly work to be done if they are to avoid being sent down to the Segunda Division. Rayo Vallecano earned promotion from the Segunda Division last season and got off to a shockingly good start in the top flight here in 2021-22. But they too have hit the skids recently with no wins over their last nine fixtures (across all competitions), which includes seven losses and an exit from the Copa del Rey. Vallecano now finds itself down in 13th place, four points ahead of Granada, so they are a little safer when it comes to the threat of relegation but not out of the woods quite yet. They have not won in the league since Dec 18 against Alaves and have conceded at least once in each of those L9 matches. In six of Granada’s last eight matches, there have been more than 2.5 xG (expected goals). A lot of that has to do with their poor defensive record, which is fourth worst in all of La Liga right now. They are dead last in the league in xGA (expected goals allowed) as well as shots allowed. They’ve conceded at least one goal in nine of the last 10 matches and multiple goals six different times in that stretch. So I see this one going Over the total on Sunday. It was actually 4-0 in favor of Vallecano when these sides met in the reverse back in August. 10* Over Granada/Rayo Vallecano |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 151.5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 45 m | Show |
8* Under North Carolina/Duke (8:49 ET): Think this game might have some interest? Improbably, in the midst of Coach K’s final run, we’ve got a Duke-North Carolina National Semifinal. This is a rematch from the regular season finale, also Coach K’s final ever game at Cameron Indoor Stadium, and the Tar Heels came in and ruined the party with a 94-81 upset (as 11-point underdogs!). I made a “wrong call” with the Under that night. (Total was 153). For the sixth straight time, a Duke-UNC meeting went Over the total. But, perhaps stubbornly, I feel this one will be different. I cashed a Duke Under in Round 1. That’s the play here. Duke has been the exception to the “Tournament rule” to this point. The Under went 10-1-1 last weekend in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. The Blue Devils’ 78-73 win over Texas Tech was the lone Over. Their 78-69 win over Arkansas was the push. The Over is now 8-1-1 in Duke’s L10 games. But again, given the shooting we’ve seen in this tournament so far, can the Blue Devils really continue to be immune from an “off-shooting” night? This is the highest O/U line for any Duke tournament game thus far and three of the previous four would have stayed Under. Shooting in the cavernous Superdome (New Orleans) could be a problem - for both teams. Carolina did allow 80 in regulation to Baylor in Round 2. But other than that, they have not allowed more than 66 in any other game. Three of the four opponents have shot 25% or worse from three-point range. The Tar Heels have not shot all that well themselves in the last two games, both of which stayed Under. 8* Under North Carolina/Duke |
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04-02-22 | Villanova v. Kansas OVER 132.5 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 55 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Villanova/Kansas (6:09 ET): So Villanova’s last three games have all gone Under. Throughout the NCAA Tournament, the number of total points scored in games involving the Wildcats has steadily decreased (140-132-118-94). So has Nova’s three point shooting (46.4%-34.8%-30.0%-23.8%). Though their Final Four opponent is holding teams below 35% overall shooting for the Tournament, I believe Nova’s shooting and the number of total points per game here are due to INCREASE. For the season, Jay Wright’s team averages 71.9 PPG. This team (and this Tournament) is due for an uptick in scoring. When it comes to the expectation of how Kansas will shoot the basketball on Saturday, I have the same view as I do for Villanova. The Jayhawks have already scored 76+ points in three of their four tourney wins, so I really have less of a concern about their offense. I know that Villanova’s last two opponents have shot 34.4% and 29.8% respectively. But can the Wildcats REALLY count on such putrid three-point shooting from their opponents again? Houston missed 19 of 20 3PA against them in the Elite 8! Kansas averages 78.3 PPG for the season and is #7 in the country in offensive efficiency. Villanova is not far behind, ranking 9th nationally in offensive efficiency. Their three-point shooting, like I said earlier, HAS to get better on Saturday. At the same time, Kansas can’t count on the sort of good fortune they’ve had from the last two opponents putting up bricks. Providence and Miami missed 37 of 44 three-point tries, a stunning bit of futility. This is the lowest O/U line of the tournament for Kansas. Three regular season totals were lower and all either went Over or pushed. I think we’ll see MUCH better shot making in this particular Final Four matchup. 10* Over Villanova/Kansas |
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04-02-22 | Brentford v. Chelsea UNDER 2.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
9* Under Brentford/Chelsea (10:00 AM ET): I think we all figure that Chelsea is finishing third in the Premier League table this season. That would actually be an improvement from last year (when they finished fourth), but right now the Blues’ greater concern may be with attaining a couple of pieces of hardware in the FA Cup (where they’ve progressed to the semis) and repeating in the Champions League (where they’re now in the quarterfinals). Still there is work to be done on the domestic front as Chelsea only has a five point advantage over fourth. I expect the usual impeccable play on the back end in this fixture. While there is current drama in the front office regarding future ownership of the club, Chelsea has won six straight across all competitions and allowed a total of only three goals in the last five. That’s what we’ve come to expect under Thomas Tuchel as his side has consistently conceded very few goals during his managerial watch. Only first place Manchester City has conceded fewer goals this season and only second place Liverpool has conceded fewer times at home. Twice this season the Blues have faced Brentford (Saturday’s opponent) - once in the EFL Cup and once in league play. Neither time did they allow a goal to be scored. Now Brentford, a newly promoted side for this season, has just one goal at this point and that is to avoid relegation. They enter Saturday eight points clear of the drop zone and honestly deserve to be even further away based on how they’ve played in their return season to the Premier League. They only lost 1-0 to Chelsea in the reverse, back in October. Unfortunately for the Bees, they just don’t score much when facing the top Premier League teams. Against the top five in xGA (expected goals allowed), they’ve managed only 7.7 xG (expected goals). But with Chelsea in a “look ahead” to next week’s first leg vs. Real Madrid in the UCL, I don’t see them being all that aggressive here. That’s good for Brentford, whose only allowed three goals in the previous two matches vs. Chelsea. 9* Under Brentford/Chelsea |
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04-02-22 | Norwich City v. Brighton & Hove Albion UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
9* Under Norwich City/Brighton (10:00 AM ET): Brighton was my pick, at the start of the season, to be the most improved side in all of Europe (not just the Premier League). At the start of the season, things were looking great as they were in the top half of the table, even sniffing the European places. That’s a vast improvement for a side that finished an unlucky 16th last season. But now, following a poor run of form (six straight losses), the Seagulls are down in 13th position. They’re more than safe from relegation, but it’s a disappointing spot to be in, given the start to the campaign. The biggest problem has been goal scoring. They’ve managed just ONE goal during the winless run. The opponents for Saturday, Norwich City, are in last place in the table and on a seven-match losing streak. So something is going to have to give here. The Canaries haven’t been quite as sad as Brighton in the goal scoring department, at least recently, but still have managed only five goals in those seven straight defeats. Obviously, a trip back down to the second tier continues to look more and more likely as Norwich has clearly been the EPL’s worst side this season. They have a -45 YTD goal differential and have scored the fewest goals in the league (18). Even worse for Norwich is that this fixture is away. They are the only EPL side yet to have hit 10 goals on their travels this season. They’ve also failed to score a single goal in any of their last three meetings with Brighton. It was 0-0 when these two met on the pitch back in October and I would not rule out a repeat of that scoreline here. More than one goal seems rather unlikely, so I love the Under for a second time this week in the Premier League as goals will be in short order in this Saturday morning fixture. 9* Under Norwich City/Brighton |
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04-01-22 | Suns v. Grizzlies UNDER 229.5 | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
8* Under Suns/Grizzlies (8:10 ET): These teams will be the top two seeds in the Western Conference come playoff time. Phoenix, who is way out in front of everybody, has already clinched the top spot and matched a franchise record for wins (62) after prevailing in each of their last nine games. Clearly, the Suns have been the best team in the league this season. Memphis is second in the West, 8.5 games back of the Suns, and is on its own win streak right now (six in a row). Even more impressive is that they are doing it without Ja Morant. The Grizzlies are an incredible 19-2 SU this season when Morant is NOT in the lineup. With the lack of stakes, this game will hardly resemble a “playoff-like atmosphere.” However, I still expect strong defensive efforts and this one to go Under the total. The last three Grizzlies’ games have all stayed Under. One would think that with Morant out, the scoring would suffer. But the key to the win streak has been holding four of the last six opponents to 103 points or less. I do think that not having Morant will hurt the Grizz in this matchup, at the offensive end. The team has shot better than its average from three-point range in five of the last six games and I don’t see that continuing here. It appears as if Memphis will be sitting several players tonight. Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr, Steven Adams, Tyus Jones and Killian Tillie are all listed as doubtful or OUT. This is a team that relies on its depth, but I have little faith in the “skeleton crew” that will take the floor in this game. Phoenix has to be happy about it, especially after holding Philadelphia and Golden State to 104 and 103 points respectively in the last two games. None of the previous five Suns-Grizzlies encounters have seen more than 227 total points scored. This one won’t either. 8* Under Suns/Grizzlies |
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04-01-22 | Fresno State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 126.5 | Top | 85-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Fresno St/Coastal Carolina (6:00 ET): Lacking in the pageantry of tomorrow’s Final Four, or even last night’s NIT Final, we’ve got the Championship Game in the inaugural “Basketball Classic” on tap tonight. Fresno State has beaten Eastern Washington, Youngstown State and Southern Utah to get here. That’s a real “rogue’s gallery” of opponents and all three wins were at home. While still favored, the Bulldogs now have to hit the road to face a Coastal Carolina team that’s beaten MD-Eastern Shore, Florida Gulf Coast and South Alabama in this tournament. The Chanticleers’ last win was as close as it gets as they won at South Alabama, in overtime, on a three-pointer with one second remaining. Both these teams have solid defensive numbers. Coastal Carolina gives up only 62.2 PPG at home this season and held South Alabama to 60 in regulation on Monday. But this team can score as well. They average 76.7 PPG at home and this one is in Conway where we last saw them put up 84 on Florida Gulf Coast. This will almost certainly close as the lowest O/U line for any CC game all season, home or road. Fresno State is actually top four in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 58.9 PPG. But they give up slightly more per game on the road. Though they ended up scoring “only” 67 pts in the semifinal win against Southern Utah, the Bulldogs did shoot 50% overall from the field and were 11 of 21 from three-point range. In the first two games of this tournament, they scored 80 and 83 points. I don’t think that FSU is going to be able to hold Coastal Carolina to the kind of numbers we saw against Southern Utah, who shot just 31.1% overall and 4 of 20 from three-point range. This is the lowest O/U of the tournament for FSU. 10* Over Fresno State/Coastal Carolina |
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03-30-22 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 232.5 | Top | 112-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
9* Over Grizzlies/Spurs (8:40 ET): Memphis is clearly now the second best team in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies have clinched a playoff spot, surpassed both the Warriors and Jazz in YTD point differential and hold a five-game lead (with six to play) over third place. So this will be the #2 seed in the Western Conference, barring a miracle. That means they’ll face a team that escapes the play-in round in Round 1. Speaking of the play-in round, that’s all the Spurs are hoping for at this point. Last night’s loss by the Lakers moved SA into 10th in the West, a spot they’ll try and hold onto over the next two weeks. If you can believe it, Memphis is 18-2 SU this season when Ja Morant doesn’t play. That’s insane. Morant is out again tonight, but it hasn’t mattered as the Grizzlies are averaging a stunning 127.4 points their last five games, all without Morant. They’ve shot better than normal during that stretch, but not astronomically better (48.4%). A big key to the Grizzlies’ success is that they are obviously a deep team. Their second unit logs more minutes per game than any other second unit in the league. You’ve also got Desmond Bane, who has scored 22 or more points in every game since Morant went down. San Antonio is NOT a great defensive team, so they should struggle to stop Memphis here. But the Spurs can trade buckets. They are coming off a 123-120 win the other night (in Houston). Dejounte Murray scored a career-high 33 in that game and the thing is the team didn’t shoot all that well (47.0% overall), especially from three-point range (21%). So both teams should be able to maintain recent scoring levels tonight. The total was several points higher when they met last month. There were 126 points scored in the 1H of that last meeting, but it ended up just staying under because of a low-scoring 4Q. Not this time. 9* Over Grizzlies/Spurs |
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03-30-22 | Wolves v. Raptors OVER 229 | Top | 102-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
10* Over T’wolves/Raptors (7:40 ET): Minnesota has undoubtedly been one of the best teams in the NBA since the All-Star Break. However, having dropped three of their last four games, they seem destined for the play-in round as the seven seed. Entering Wednesday, the T’wolves are two games back of Denver (with six to play) in the race for the six seed. It didn’t help that the T’wolves gave up 134 points in a loss to Boston on Sunday. Defense has not been this team’s strong suit, at least when playing on the road where they have allowed an average of 117.7 PPG this season. That’s a big reason why I’m on the Over here. Over in the Eastern Conference, Toronto’s prospects of avoiding the play-in round are looking good. They’ve passed Cleveland into sixth and can move back into a fifth place tie with Chicago with a win tonight. The Raptors have won three straight, scoring 115 or more points in every game, and have just two losses over the last three weeks. Now they needed overtime to get the win on Monday, over a short-handed Celtics team that had just beaten Minnesota the day before. But while Pascal Siakam may not match his individual effort (40 points) from Monday here, the team should shoot better than 43.4%. Toronto also made just 10 of 39 three-point attempts against Boston, well below their season average of 35%. They shouldn’t have much trouble draining threes here against a Minnesota team that allows opponents to hit 36% from behind the arc, on the road. The T’wolves let Boston shoot 56.3% overall on Sunday. But at the same time, the Raptors will probably also struggle defensively in this matchup. Minnesota averages 117.9 PPG itself on the road, so it should be no shock that the Over is 28-10 in all of their away games this season. The Over is 15-7 in Toronto’s last 22 home games. 10* Over T’wolves/Raptors |
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03-29-22 | Washington State v. Texas A&M UNDER 133.5 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Washington St/Texas A&M (9:30 ET): So I’ve had success so far playing Washington State games in the NIT. I took the Under when they beat Santa Clara 63-50 in the opening round, which was quite the defensive performance by Wazzu as they held the Broncos to 26.5 points below their season average. Then came a 75-63 win at SMU, a tough place to play at. Last Wednesday, I was back on the Under train with Wazzu as they beat another WCC team (BYU), 77-58 as a 2.5-point underdog. Pretty clearly, the Cougars have been “locked in” defensively in the NIT, giving up just 57 PPG! Texas A&M, who many felt was “snubbed” by the NCAA Tournament, has also seen the Under hit in all three NIT games. The Under has actually hit four straight times for the Aggies, going back to the SEC Tournament Final vs. Tennessee. The difference between them and Wazzu is that all of A&M’s NIT games (previous to this) were played at home. The Aggies have held Alcorn State, Oregon and Wake Forest to an average of 58 PPG, basically right on par with Wazzu. Not overly concerned with A&M’s transition away from College Station as they held Auburn, Arkansas and Tennessee all to 65 points or fewer in the SEC Tournament. Look for the Under to hit again in this NIT semifinal battle. Washington State is allowing under 20% shooting from behind the three-point line in this tournament, which is just incredible. Texas A&M is not particularly adept at three-point shooting as is evident by the fact they’re down around 25% for the tournament. On the flip side, Washington State isn’t a great shooting team either; they’re hitting just over 40% overall from the field this season and A&M also happens to defend the three-point line well. Both teams play slow and are top 32 in the country in defensive efficiency. 10* Under Wash St/Texas A&M |
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03-28-22 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 217.5 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under Celtics/Raptors (7:40 ET): I also like the Under here. The Celtics shot 56.3% from the floor last night and made 17 threes. Don’t expect them to match those numbers in the second night of a back to back, especially if they end up being extremely undermanned. On the flip side, the Raptors are off their third highest-scoring effort of the season and won’t be able to match their offensive output from the last game either. They shot 60.9% from the field and were 15 of 32 from three-point range. While I do like Toronto to cover the spread here, look for Boston to play better defense than they did last night vs. Minnesota. The Celtics are #1 in the league in scoring defense and efficiency. The T’wolves, who play at the fastest pace in the league, shot 53.6% overall and were 14 of 32 from behind the arc last night. Both of these teams are in the bottom seven in the league in pace. Toronto has held three of its last four opponents to 104 points or less. The Under is 10-4 their L14 games and 2-0 this season after their previous two 130+ point efforts. The Under has also hit in all three previous head to head meetings between these teams this season. 8* Under Celtics/Raptors |
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03-27-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 220.5 | Top | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
8* Under Jazz/Mavericks (7:40 ET): Utah has lost three straight, its worst losing streak since a stretch in January when it dropped 11 of 13 games (had a 5-game and 4-game losing skid during that stretch). This recent skid has dropped the Jazz into a fourth place tie with the team they’ll face tonight, Dallas, who is also entering in off a loss. You may recall that I played the Jazz Under the total their last time out and that was an easy win as they and the Hornets combined for only 208 points (O/U line closed at 228). Tonight’s O/U line isn’t quite as high, but the opponent is also better defensively. Going Under again. Dallas has seen the Under hit in each of its last three games. As mentioned above, the Mavs’ most recent game was a loss. They fell 116-95 in Minnesota, a result which was doubly bad as it means no ground was gained on Utah and the T’wolves (and Nuggets) are breathing down the Mavs’ neck. Unders are nothing new for Dallas as they are the #1 Under team in the NBA this season and it’s been home games mostly responsible for that. The Under is 26-10-1 in Mavericks’ home games and the primary reason for that is they are allowing an average of just 102.1 PPG here. Utah has failed to score its season average in four consecutive contests, which is likely tied to them being without Bojan Bogdanovic, who is their second leading scorer. He’ll again be out on Sunday. The Jazz’s scoring has also always been lower on the road (110.7) compared to the road (116.3). Dallas did not shoot well in Minnesota Friday night, but any gains made at the offensive end tonight will be offset by improvement at the defensive end. They let the T’wolves shoot 51.2%, which was the highest percentage by any Mavs’ opponent since 2/25. When these teams met here in Dallas three weeks ago, the Mavs won 111-103. 8* Under Jazz/Mavericks |
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03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas OVER 147 | Top | 50-76 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* Over Miami FL/Kansas (2:20 ET): Well, Kansas is certainly the team we expected to be here. The Jayhawks are the only remaining 1-seed in the Tournament after both Gonzaga and Arizona met their demise in the Sweet 16. KU was able to outlast Providence on Friday, winning 66-61. But for the second straight time they did not cover. Against Creighton, Bill Self’s team won 79-72 as a 12.5-point favorite. They closed as 6.5-point favorites against Providence. Here they’ll find themselves in a similar price range against an unlikely upstart, that being 10-seed Miami. Honestly, I expected that “The U” would lose in the first round to USC. Boy have the Hurricanes proven me wrong. They beat the Trojans 68-66, holding on after taking a double digit lead in the 1H. Then came a shocking upset of 2-seed Auburn, 79-61 as 6.5-point dogs, thanks to a 2H surge. In the Sweet 16, the Canes were short favorites in an unlikely matchup with Iowa State and controlled from start to finish in a 70-56 win and cover. The team is now 10-3 ATS over its last 13 games, 3-0 ATS in the Tournament and also 7-1 ATS its last eight games as a neutral site underdog. They’ll relish the role they are in on Sunday. Over their last six games, Kansas has alternated Overs and Unders. I had the Over in the matchup with Creighton, which ended up 79-72. Shooting was not good - for either side - when the Jayhawks faced Providence. The teams combined to shoot 36.2% overall, including an unsightly 6 of 38 from three-point range. I expect better overall shooting in this game and Kansas probably can’t maintain its current tournament average where opponents are shooting just 34% against them. Similarly, Miami’s last two opponents have shot a woeful 9 of 48 from three-point range! Iowa State attempted only FOUR free throws the entire game, a number Kansas will crush. 10* Over Miami FL/Kansas |
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03-26-22 | Thunder v. Nuggets OVER 227.5 | Top | 107-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
10* Over Thunder/Nuggets (9:10 ET): At this point, Denver’s main goal is to hold onto sixth place in the Western Conference. Their lead over seventh place Minnesota is down to one-half game after the T’wolves beat the fifth place Mavs Friday night. Those three teams (Mavs, Nuggets, T’wolves) are all separated by 2.5 games and obviously one of them is going to be “odd team out” when it comes to having to win in the play-in round. For tonight’s game vs. OKC however, I’m more focused on the fact that the Nuggets have gone Over in each of their last five contests. Defensively, the Nuggets are allowing 121.4 PPG during the 5-0 Over stretch. They are just 2-3 SU after being blitzed 140-130 here at home by Phoenix Thursday night. I had the Over in that one and obviously it was a (very) easy winner. On the bright side for Denver, they are averaging 120.8 PPG over the L5 games. They shot 59.3% against the Suns (only to allow 60.5% shooting). There should be little issue scoring tonight on a Thunder team that has allowed 120 or more points eight different times here in March, including seven of the last nine games. OKC were 118-102 winners in their last game, which was at home against Orlando. That was a much higher scoring game than the previous time the Thunder faced the Magic (on 3/20) where there were just 175 total pts scored (and I cashed the Under). In between the games vs. Orlando, the Thunder got beat 132-123 by Boston. Since March 8th, Orlando is the only team not to score at least 120 against OKC. On the bright side, leading scorer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could return tonight. Look for this to turn into a really high-scoring game as the Over is 13-3-1 in the Thunder’s L17 games. 10* Over Thunder/Nuggets |
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03-26-22 | Bulls v. Cavs OVER 221.5 | Top | 98-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
9* Over Bulls/Cavs (8:10 ET): This is a critically important game for both teams as it really does feel like one of them is poised to drop out of the top six in the East. Chicago was once on top of the “conference heap” but they have had a brutal second half of the season, losing 10 of their last 13 games. Interestingly, two of the wins came against the Cavs and Raptors, the two teams now directly below them in the standings. Cleveland is tied with Toronto for sixth place as they’ve dropped B2B games. Key to the Bulls’ decline has been the defensive end of the floor. Injuries to Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso had a major hand in the defensive decline. Caruso is probable for tonight, but Ball remains out. A bit of positive news is that leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (27.6 PPG) is listed as probable as well. DeRozan missed Thursday’s loss to New Orleans where the team put up only 109 points. Of course, the Bulls also gave up 126 in that game, which was the fourth time in the last five games they allowed 125+ points. Cleveland’s last six games have all gone Over the total as there has been major regression on the defensive end here as well. The Cavs have allowed 118.2 PPG their L5 games. At least they are scoring though. Before suffering a 117-104 loss in Toronto on Thursday, the team had scored 113+ in five consecutive games. Given how both teams have been playing at the defensive end of late, I’ve got no choice but to go Over in this one. 9* Over Bulls/Cavs |
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03-26-22 | Houston v. Villanova OVER 127.5 | Top | 44-50 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
10* Over Houston/Villanova (6:09 ET): These teams play at two of the slowest paces in the entire country. Both are in the bottom in adjusted tempo per KenPom. So it makes sense that we have a low total for the South Regional Final between Houston and Villanova. But might it be too low? I think so. Houston has had only five games with a lower total, all January 5th or earlier. The last three all went Over. One of the two that didn’t came against Virginia, who plays at an even slower tempo than Villanova. As for ‘Nova, they’ve had only ONE game all year with an O/U line lower than 128. It pushed as they only gave up 42 points. The Wildcats will not hold Houston to 42 points here. Villanova has seen its own overall shooting percentage decline with each passing game in this tournament. They shot 50.9% vs. Delaware, then 44.2% vs. Ohio State and finally 37.3% vs. Michigan. Total points have declined from 80 to 71 to 63 as has three point shooting 46.4% to 34.8% to 30.0%. Do we really expect offensive numbers to decline across the board for a fourth consecutive game? It hasn’t happened all year. The average number of total points scored in Villanova games this season is 135.2. I believe the Wildcats can score at least 64 here. While Villanova’s overall FG% defense has improved with each passing game, teams are hitting better from three, peaking with Michigan’s 34.4% on Thursday. That’s good news for a Houston team that has made over 45% of its threes in two of three tourney games so far. The Cougars are averaging 74 PPG in the tournament. In the last 13 games, the fewest points scored by UH is 61. In the other 12, they scored at least 69. Their average number of total points per game scored this season is 134.7. Looking at the numbers, I simply feel that the value is on the Over here. 10* Over Houston/Villanova |
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03-25-22 | North Carolina v. UCLA UNDER 141.5 | Top | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under North Carolina/UCLA (9:39 ET): UCLA quietly turned in a dominant effort in Round 2, ousting St. Mary’s 72-56. That followed a somewhat “sleepy” effort against Akron in the first round (where the Bruins won by just four points). But they have held B2B opponents below 60 points. This Bruins team is 14th in the country in defensive efficiency and thus I believe they are capable of doing what neither Marquette or Baylor could do and that’s slow down this North Carolina offense. Going back to February 12th, only one team has been able to score more than 68 against UCLA and that was Arizona in the Pac 12 Tournament Final. At the same time, I can’t see UCLA shooting as well as they did in the last round (when they made 56.5% of their field goal attempts). North Carolina has surprisingly held its first two tourney opponents to 35% overall shooting. They held Marquette to just 63 points in the first round. The second round saw the Tar Heels hold Baylor to just 29 first half points. But then came the big ejection of Brady Manek, which led to UNC blowing a 25-point lead (in the final 10 minutes of regulation) amidst a massive defensive breakdown. With Manek back in the lineup, we won’t see another defensive breakdown like that. UCLA star forward Jaime Jaquez sprained his ankle against St. Mary’s and thus is questionable to play Friday. I think the Bruins can survive without him, but potentially being without your second leading scorer and top rebounder is tough. This is a much higher O/U line than usual for the Bruins. Note the O/U lines for the first two tourney games were 128 and 126! This is just the third total north of 140 for UCLA since Feb 3rd. Remember that North Carolina was held to an average of just 61 PPG in two ACC Tourney games. They won’t score anywhere close to what they did in the first two rounds of this tournament. 8* Under North Carolina/UCLA |
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03-25-22 | Warriors v. Hawks OVER 221 | Top | 110-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
8* Over Warriors/Hawks (7:40 ET): Without Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson Golden State somehow managed to beat Miami on Wednesday, 118-104 as a 10-point underdog. Curry (foot) is out indefinitely, but Green and Thompson will both be back in the lineup Friday as the team faces Atlanta. (Those two were simply given Wednesday off). The Warriors can’t afford any kind of letdown here as they now trail Memphis by 2.5 games in the race for the second seed in the Western Conference. I think we’ll see plenty of offense from the Dubs tonight, even without Curry. In the East, Atlanta finds itself at the back end of the playoff race, currently occupying the last play-in spot. It’s a far cry from last season when the team made a run to the Conference Finals. Losing by 21 in Detroit on Wednesday was NOT what the “doctor ordered,” although perhaps that result was the byproduct of being in the second night of a back to back. Things really fell apart for the Hawks in the second half when they were on the wrong end of a 23-0 run and then could only manage two points over the first four minutes of the fourth quarter. With them now back at home, I am expecting a far better offensive effort in tonight’s game. The Hawks are averaging 116 PPG at State Farm Arena, which is marked improvement from the 109.6 PPG they average on the road. But regardless of where they are playing, the team is giving up just over 112 PPG this season. Trae Young had only 21 points in Detroit after scoring 45+ in three of his previous five games, two of those coming here at home. If Golden State can score 118 without its three best players in the lineup, certainly we should expect around the same with two of them back in the lineup tonight. They actually shot 51.9% against the Heat and are now 6-2-1 Over L9 road games. 8* Over Warriors/Hawks |
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03-25-22 | Jazz v. Hornets UNDER 229.5 | Top | 101-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
8* Under Jazz/Hornets (7:10 ET): So the Jazz have lost B2B games for the first time since January. They were humbled Wednesday in Boston, losing 125-97 to the Celtics as a 4.5-point underdog. Entering that game, Utah had the league’s sixth highest scoring offense, but they were held under 100 points for the first time since March 4th as they went 8 of 36 from three-point range. However, I’d say it was the defense that let them down more. They allowed the Celtics to shoot a season-high 59% for the game and make their first 10 shots. That’s why the Jazz found themselves down by as many as 30 points before halftime. Charlotte turned in a similarly poor defensive effort that same night against the Knicks. New York would score 40 pts in the 1Q en route to a 121-106 final, ending the Hornets’ five-game win streak. Charlotte really struggled to defend the three in that game, letting the Knicks hit 14 of 26 from distance. Look for that to be a “point of emphasis” here as the Hornets try to lock down one of the “play-in” spots in the East. Similarly, Utah has to be concerned with preserving its status as a top four team in the West. So I’m looking for better defensive efforts from both sides tonight. The Hornets played much better defense over the final three quarters against the Knicks, but it was largely “too little, too late.” Their games, on average, are the highest scoring in the league, but still not at the level of tonight’s number. This season, Charlotte is 24-10 Under when facing an opponent that has a winning record, including 12-3 L15 in that situation. Looking at the number from the Jazz’s perspective, they are 7-1 Under this season when the O/U line is 230 points or higher, including 3-0 on the road. 8* Under Jazz/Hornets |
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03-25-22 | Wizards v. Pistons OVER 220.5 | Top | 100-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
8* Over Wizards/Pistons (7:10 ET): I do not expect much defense to be played in this game. Washington has dropped eight of nine, really putting a dent in their already fleeting playoff hopes. They just lost (last night) 114-102 to a Milwaukee team that was resting both Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo. That result leaves the Wizards 5.5 games back of 10th place Atlanta for the last play-in spot and let’s be honest here: the Wiz aren’t making that kind of ground up. They’re allowing an average of 115 points over the L5 games. Detroit is simply looking to avoid the Eastern Conference cellar at this point as they continue to battle with Orlando at the bottom of the standings. It was a rare win on Wednesday, 122-101 over Atlanta, as rookie Cade Cunningham led the way with 17 points, six rebounds and eight assists. Cunningham was one of eight Pistons to finish in double figures, so it was a real “team effort” and at one point they went on a 23-0 run! It’s also now four straight games for the Pistons where there has been AT LEAST 222 total points scored. In three of their last four games, Detroit has scored at least 115 points. Can they keep that up here? I think so. Washington has allowed eight of its last 10 opponents to shoot over 50% from the field. This being the second night of a back to back for the Wizards is key as they are 9-2 Over in that situation this season and 27-11 Over the L3 seasons. But look for the Wiz to shoot well themselves, certainly better than they did last night from three (28.9% vs. MIL). The Pistons have held B2B opponents under 42% from the field, which is atypical for them. 8* Over Wizards/Pistons |
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03-24-22 | Suns v. Nuggets OVER 231 | Top | 140-130 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
8* Over Suns/Nuggets (9:10 ET): A Suns’ win tonight would give them home court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs. Even if they fail to get the job done here, with a nine game lead over second place Memphis, bank on last year’s Western Conference champs ending up as the top seed. Whereas LY’s run caught everyone by surprise, this season the Suns have clearly been the league’s most dominant team, posting the top net efficiency rating and point differential. A big key to their success is having one of the league’s top offenses. Coming into tonight, Phoenix is averaging 128.2 points over its L5 games. Denver is no slouch in the scoring department either. They have averaged 117.6 points over their last five games and that’s not all that far above what they average for the season here at home (113.5). Right now, the Nuggets are simply trying to hold on to a top six spot in the West. Phoenix did them a real “solid” last night by beating Minnesota 125-116. That widened the gap between the Nuggets and T’Wolves to 1.5 games. Denver is coming off a 127-115 win over the Clippers on Tuesday night. In that game, they shot 54.2% overall from the field and 50% from three-point range. The Nuggets’ last four games have all gone Over the total. The Suns are 6-1 Over in their last seven games. I know that we’ve got a high total here and both teams can’t keep scoring the way that they have recently, but I still don’t think the number is high enough for tonight’s game. Phoenix has allowed 111 or more points in six of its last seven games and I don’t think this being the second night of a back to back really helps. The Over is 6-1 in Suns’ road games when the total is 230 or higher. Denver has given up 115+ points in each of the L3 games. Look for a high-scoring game. 8* Over Suns/Nuggets |
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03-24-22 | Bulls v. Pelicans UNDER 227.5 | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* Under Bulls/Pelicans (8:10 ET): Chicago ran into a train named “Milwaukee” Tuesday night, getting crushed by the Bucks 126-98. The defending NBA Champs shot a blistering 61 percent from the field against the Bulls, handing them their ninth defeat in the past 12 games. Now you would think, giving up that many points, that Tuesday’s game went Over. But much to my chagrin (I had the Over), it did not. The Bulls scored only 98, their fewest in a game this month. But I do not think they are about to allow the kind of shooting we saw in that last game either. Take the Under here. New Orleans is also coming off a loss, 106-103 at Charlotte. They were looking to make it a 3-0 road trip after winning at San Antonio and Atlanta. But scoring only 10 points over the final nine minutes won’t get it done. Like Chicago, the Pelicans’ last three games have all stayed Under the total. (Bulls are also 8-1 Under L9 games). I know the previous six meetings between these teams have all gone Over, but this one should be different as there could be multiple key absences and the number is just too high, given respective season averages. Bulls’ games are averaging 223.0 PPG this season. There’s really no difference home vs. road. Meanwhile, Pelicans’ games average just 218.4 PPG this season. At home, things tend to be a little higher scoring (220.9), but not much. Monitor the statuses of Chicago’s DeMar DeRozan and New Orleans’ Brandon Ingram. The latter has missed the L8 games, so him being out again wouldn’t be a surprise. But DeRozan, the Bulls’ leading scorer, is now listed as questionable after suffering a groin injury in the last game. That would be a huge loss for the road team. 10* Under Bulls/Pelicans |
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03-24-22 | Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 135.5 | Top | 55-63 | Win | 100 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
**Note: Michigan PG Jones still listed as questionable as of press time. I think the Wolverines are due for a downturn offensively, regardless of what Jones' status ends up being. If he plays, there could be some "rust." 10* Under Michigan/Villanova (7:27 ET): Through two games in this tournament, Michigan has shot 52% from the floor and averaged 75.5 PPG. They beat Colorado State by 12 (despite trailing by seven at the half) and then stunned Tennessee 76-68, again overcoming a halftime deficit. It would definitely be a surprise if they could win again, but stranger things have happened in March. I did cash the Wolverines in the first round and they are clearly a team that was better than their regular season record. But this game against Villanova promises to be a grind. Second seeded Villanova has handled its business against Delaware and Ohio State, winning those two games by a combined 30 points. As expected, it was not very difficult to oust the Fighting Blue Hens as a 35-10 run put that game away. ‘Nova held Delaware to 3 of 20 from three-point range. Then, against Ohio State, the Wildcats raced out to a sizable early advantage before holding on for a 71-61 win. While Michigan has 14 losses on the year, Villanova has lost only one time since Feb 5 and that was by only two points. I think a big key when betting the total here is noting that Villanova plays at one of the slowest tempos in all of College Basketball. They are 345th in pace. This is a strong defensive team, one that averages just 62.9 PPG allowed. Michigan is due for a downturn in shooting and ‘Nova is allowing a FG% of just 40.9 for the year. They also allow teams to shoot only 30.6% from three-point range. We’ve also seen Michigan put the clamps down defensively, holding CSU and Tennessee to just 27 and 31 pts in the 2H, respectively. Tennessee didn’t make a single three-pointer in the 2H on Saturday. 10* Under Michigan/Villanova |
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03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU UNDER 142.5 | Top | 77-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
8* Under Washington State/BYU (9:00 ET): I think these might be the two of the top three teams left in the NIT. Coming into the Tournament, Oklahoma was the highest rated in my power rankings, but the Sooners are out. That leaves Wake Forest as the highest one left, then these two. In fact, the four highest rated teams remaining are all on one side of the bracket with Wake, A&M and these two. Enough of that though. I had success with a previous Washington State Under and that’s the way I’m playing tonight’s quarterfinal at BYU as this is a very solid team defensively. Now stopping Brigham Young may seem like a challenge. The Cougars have scored 90+ points in their first two NIT games, beating Long Beach State and Northern Iowa. But neither of those teams are as solid as Wazzu at the defensive end. Note that when I last played the Under with Wazzu, they were facing another WCC team (Santa Clara) that came in averaging 76.5 PPG. The Broncos had scored 89 or more in three of their last four games, but were held to just 50 points (on 30.0% shooting) by Washington State. Wazzu is top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency and kept SMU to 63 in the second round, including 20 in the 1H, on the road. But Washington State also has shot just under 35% from the field in this tournament. They were 6 of 24 from three-point range vs. SMU. BYU is also pretty staunch at the defensive end, especially here in Provo where they allow just 63.9 PPG. Visiting teams are hitting just 29.4% from three-point range here. In sum, you cannot expect BYU to shoot the ball as well as they have in the first two NIT games. But their own defensive prowess will keep them in this one, a battle of Cougars which looks to stay Under the total. 8* Under Washington State/BYU |
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03-23-22 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 226.5 | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
10* Over Hawks/Pistons (7:10 ET): Atlanta got back into the win column last night, besting the Knicks 117-111 as a 1.5-point road favorite. Trae Young led the way with 45 points, a nice “recovery” for the Hawks leading scorer after he’d been held to just 21 and 9 in in the team’s previous two contests. But Young is certainly no stranger to crossing the 40-point threshold as he’s now done that three times in the last five games. I expect Young and the Hawks to put up a lot of points again tonight as they face the cellar-dwelling Pistons, a team whose last three games have all gone Over the total. Detroit did pick up a win last Thursday in what was the lone NBA game on that particular day’s docket. They scored 134 points on the Magic and that was despite being extremely short-handed. Saddiq Bey exploded in that game for a career-high 51 points. However, since that win, it’s been back to losing in the Motor City. That’s even with leading scorer Cade Cunningham returning to the lineup. Cunningham had 25 points in the Pistons’ 119-115 loss to the short-handed Trail Blazers on Monday. That was a game where Detroit actually closed as a 10-point favorite! They fell behind by as many as 23 before briefly taking the lead, then falling apart down the stretch. That Blazers-Pistons game saw some woeful three-point shooting as the teams combined to go just 17 of 63 from beyond the arc. Yet there were still 234 total points scored. That was owed to NINETY free throws being taken. Won’t be nearly that many here, but I still see an Over. Detroit chose to sit five players against Portland, but looks to be closer to full strength here. Last time these teams met, the total was higher. The Over has hit each of the L4 times Atlanta has been in a B2B and Detroit is 10-5 the Over when the number is 220 or higher. 10* Over Hawks/Pistons |
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03-22-22 | Vanderbilt v. Xavier UNDER 143 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
10* Under Vanderbilt/Xavier (9:00 ET): Xavier is probably no worse than the Marquette team that got slaughtered (by North Carolina) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. But with an 18-13 SU regular season record, the Musketeers were simply not going to get into the Big Dance, particularly after losing six of their last seven games. So they had to settle on the NIT and that’s gone well with a 72-68 win over Cleveland State and 72-56 win over Florida. Another SEC team comes to campus for Tuesday’s quarterfinals, that being Vanderbilt, who has beaten Belmont (82-71) and Dayton (70-68) thus far. This will be the first time Vandy has had to leave home in the NIT. Their first two games were both in Nashville. Now they’ll try and make it an “Ohio double” after beating Dayton (in overtime) last time out. The Commodores have fared quite well at the betting window down the stretch; covering 11 of their last 15 games. They just missed out against Dayton as three point favorites. As underdogs, the Commies have covered five straight times. But it’s another streak that I’m looking at here, them having produced four straight Overs. Away from home, I don’t see this team shooting all that well. Also, that last game (vs. Dayton) would NOT have gone Over without OT. Vandy isn’t a great shooting team to begin with. Their FG% for the season is only 42.4. I look at the L5 games and see a team that has been scoring well above their season average (78.2 PPG). For the year, the Commodores are averaging just 70.7 PPG. Xavier allows just 64.8 PPG at home and has held its previous two NIT opponents to only 62 PPG. What will keep Vandy in this one though is the fact they are 38th in the country in defensive efficiency and allow just 30% shooting from three-point land. Xavier is actually better than that (at home), allowing just 29.4%. Neither team is great at the FT line either. Xavier’s second leading scorer (PG Scruggs) is questionable after leaving the last game with a knee injury. 10* Under Vanderbilt/Xavier |
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03-22-22 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 232.5 | Top | 98-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
10* Over Bulls/Bucks (8:10 ET): This is a high total, but consider that the last time these teams played (earlier this month), the number was even higher (239.5). That previous meeting did NOT go Over, but did see 230 total points scored (Bucks won 118-112). The Under is actually 2-0 in Bulls/Bucks meetings in 2021-22 with the first being really low-scoring. But for that first meeting, the Bulls did not have Zach LaVine and the two teams combined to shoot an irregularly bad 13 of 69 from three-point range. Going back to February 5th, the fewest total pts scored in any Milwaukee game is 228. I’ll take my chances here with the Over. Chicago played last night and picked up a key win over Toronto, 113-99. The win kept them in fifth place in the Eastern Conference and also widened the gap over the seventh place Raptors to 2.5 games. This will be the third time this season that the Bulls are playing in a back to back where the first game was home and the second was away. The previous two occasions have seen an average of 237 total points per game scored. The Bulls’ defense has been very shaky over the last month or so and will NOT keep the Bucks in check the way it did Toronto (who shot just 6 of 32 from three-point range). In fact, the previous two games - when it faced Utah and Phoenix - Chicago gave up 125 and 129 points. Milwaukee has scored 117 or more in every game but one since the All-Star Break. That one time was against Golden State, who is one of the top two defensive teams in the entire NBA. Now the Bucks have their own issues defensively as the last two games have seen them surrender 126 and 138 points. They allowed 38 made threes in the two games. The Over is 13-5 in the Bucks’ last 18 games overall and 9-3 L12 at home. 10* Over Bulls/Bucks |
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03-21-22 | Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 230 | Top | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
8* Under T’wolves/Mavs (8:40 ET): The Timberwolves sure are “humming” right now. They’re up to sixth in the Western Conference, and have fifth place Dallas in their sights, after winning (and covering) 10 of their last 11 games. Last time out, the T’wolves beat Milwaukee 138-119 as a 3.5-point favorite. That line swung dramatically after it was announced Giannis Antetokounmpo would not be playing for the Bucks. Minnesota took full advantage of the absence, shooting the lights out, including 22 of 47 from three-point range. I don’t see them shooting that well here, against a Mavs team that allows just 102.2 PPG at home. Dallas returns home tonight after a five-game road trip that started well and ended poorly. The Mavericks won the first three games of that five-game trip, including victories over Boston and Brooklyn. But then they lost at Philadelphia and Charlotte on Friday & Saturday. Perhaps they “ran out of gas,” but the bottom line is they can’t afford many more stumbles with just a 1.5 game lead over the T’wolves and Nuggets. The last thing the Mavs want is to “fall into” the play-in round. I think Dallas matches up uniquely well against Minnesota. First off, the Mavs play at the slowest pace in the league, a big reason why they are the #1 Under team at 43-26-2. The Under is 24-10-1 in their home games. Also, the Mavs allow the fewest number of three-point attempts in the league (10.9 per game), which is key because Minnesota takes the most threes per game. The previous two matchups between these teams both saw 216 total points scored and had much lower totals. I believe that the offensive numbers for Minnesota are due to “come back down to Earth” and that’s a big reason why I’m on the Under here. 8* Under T’wolves/Mavericks |
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03-21-22 | USC Upstate v. South Alabama OVER 139.5 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
10* Over USC Upstate/South Alabama (8:00 ET): So this is “The Basketball Classic,” a new tournament for this year that replaced the CIT. Honestly, it feels like the organizers are kind of “making the rules up as they go along here” as you’ve got one team (Portland) already with a bye into the quarterfinals and four second round matchups, so we’re going to be left with five teams and I don’t really understand how that’s going to be resolved! What I do know is that this matchup between USC Upstate and South Alabama should feature plenty of points. USC Upstate, who finished with the fourth best record in the Big South this year, hung 80 in a first round upset at Appalachian State last Tuesday. Despite being 10.5-point underdogs, the Spartans led most of the game, although they did blow all of a 12-point lead in the second half. It ended up being their highest scoring game since 2/2, but USC Upstate has now scored 70 or more points in five of its last six games and that’s all we probably need from them tonight. South Alabama grinded out a 70-68 win over SE Louisiana in the first round. The Jaguars did not cover the nine-point spread in that game as they blew a 17-point 2H lead. The last five games have seen USA score well below their season average of 71.3 PPG, so I expect them to get on track offensively here against an opponent that ranks outside of the top 300 in defensive efficiency. At home, the Jaguars average 75.4 PPG and that’s the exact number USC Upstate is allowing per game on the road. 10* Over USC Upstate/South Alabama |
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03-20-22 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 93-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
8* Under Raptors/Sixers (8:40 ET): I’ve been unafraid to play the Under with the Sixers recently as that’s the way that five of their last seven games have gone. One of the two that didn’t went to overtime. The Under was a winning bet when I took it Friday as the Sixers beat the Mavericks 111-101. As has been discussed before, the defensive efficiency numbers when James Harden and Joel Embiid are on the floor together have been exceptional. Embiid is listed as questionable for tonight, but you obviously can’t disregard the impact that will have at the offensive end. Take the Under with Philly yet again. Toronto seemed poised to break into the top six in the Eastern Conference as they were on a 5-0 SU/ATS run heading into Friday night’s game vs. the Lakers. But they lost that one, 128-123 in overtime, and coupled with Cleveland’s B2B wins, the Raptors are now 1.5 games back of the top six. Toronto shot 50% against the Lakers, a number I don’t think they’ll be able to match here. They are shooting 44.4% for the year. The Under is 23-12 in Sixers’ home games this season. That includes 8-1 when the O/U is 220 or higher. While the offensive numbers exploded in the first 5-6 games with Harden, the L5 games have seen Philly average only 111 PPG and that’s with an OT game. This O/U line opened much higher than either of the two previous meetings, both of which did go Over, but would have barely scraped by this number. 8* Under Raptors/Sixers |
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03-20-22 | Miami-FL v. Auburn UNDER 143.5 | Top | 79-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
8* Under Miami/Auburn (7:45 ET): I have no unearthly idea how Miami was able to defeat USC in the first round. The Hurricanes were outshot, 48.0% to 42.9%, and made only ONE three-point shot (on 17 attempts) for the game. But they did enjoy a +10 advantage in FT attempts and that, coupled with a fast start, allowed them to hold on for the 68-66 upset as two-point underdogs. I would not at all be surprised to see the ‘Canes get run out of the gym by Auburn on Sunday, but the better play (in my view) is on the Under here. Auburn didn’t have any difficulty disposing of Jacksonville State on Friday. That was an 80-61 victory as 14.5-point underdogs. In retrospect, that was a shockingly low number for a 2-15 matchup, especially considering Jacksonville State did NOT win its conference tournament. Auburn allowed just 31.1% in that game. Incredibly, only TWO teams have shot better than 45% this season against the Tigers. Those were UConn (49.3%) on 11/24 and Kentucky (50%) on 1/22. Given Miami’s own offensive struggles on Friday, I’m not worried about them shooting the lights out here. Auburn has scored 80 or more in three of its last four games, but those efforts were all against overmatched opponents; a 15-seed and two non-tourney teams. Miami’s defensive efficiency numbers are not great, but I think they can keep the Tigers in relative check here. Jaylin Williams and Walker Kessler ran into each other against Jacksonville State, getting banged up in the process. Bruce Pearl expects to have both Sunday, but don’t discount the injuries. 8* Under Miami/Auburn |
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03-20-22 | Thunder v. Magic UNDER 226.5 | Top | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10* Under Thunder/Magic (6:10 ET): Orlando’s defense has been absolutely atrocious over the L2 games, giving up 150 to Brooklyn and 134 to Detroit. Allowing 150 points is never acceptable, though the Magic fell prey to a 60+ point effort from Kyrie Irving that day. I’m not complaining as I had the Over in the game. Giving up 134 to the Pistons may have actually been worse considering Detroit is second to last in the NBA in scoring. Tonight, the Magic face THE lowest scoring team in the NBA, Oklahoma City. Can the defense turn around? Yes, I think it can! (It certainly can’t get any worse!) Take the Under. Each of the Thunder’s last four games have gone Over, but they are banged up heading into Sunday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ankle) is listed as questionable for tonight and there were SEVEN players that missed Friday’s game vs. Miami, which ended up being OKC’s eighth consecutive loss. Gilgeous-Alexander is the team’s leading scorer and the second AND third leading scorers were out against Miami. I know the injuries haven’t stopped the Thunder from scoring more than usual, but that’s likely to end for a team that averages just 102.8 PPG on the road this season. By the way, Orlando is also banged up and one of the lowest scoring teams in the league. The Magic average only 104.5 PPG (28th overall) and were without two starters (Carter, Suggs) vs. the Pistons. I believe that the recent rash of high-scoring games both teams are experiencing is a mirage, mostly due to the opponents. This total is absurdly high considering its two of the three lowest scoring teams in the NBA. They are the bottom two in offensive efficiency. Thunder games average 214.1 PPG for the season while Magic games average 217.0 PPG. The Under is 10-4 in Orlando’s L14 games vs. teams with losing records. 10* Under Thunder/Magic |
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03-19-22 | New Mexico State v. Arkansas UNDER 138.5 | Top | 48-53 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
10* Under New Mexico State/Arkansas (8:40 ET): New Mexico State made me look foolish in Round 1, upsetting UConn 70-63, thus continuing the 12 vs. 5 seed trend. It was Aggies’ first NCAA Tournament win since the early 90s. Now they’ll meet an Arkansas team that outlasted an upset bid from upstart Vermont. The Razorbacks won 75-71 on Thursday, but did not cover the spread. That was a game where scoring really picked up in the 2H (85 pts) after a relatively low-scoring first half (61 points). As someone who had the Under in that Arkansas-Vermont matchup, I was quite sad. So both of these teams “owe me” one on Saturday. Arkansas’ last seven games have all gone Over. That’s the longest O/U streak of any team left in the tournament. This is a top 20 team in the country in defensive efficiency and I expect the Razorbacks to advance here. Look for them to do it with defense. NMSU isn’t anywhere near as prolific as Vermont when it comes to shooting the basketball. Now the Aggies did shoot a ridiculous 64.7% from three-point range (11 of 17) against UConn, but that is a number they certainly will not be repeating here. For the year, they’re at just 33.5% from behind the arc. Arkansas has its own issues shooting from long distance as they are just 30.9% for the season. So NMSU may be able to stick around because of that. The Aggies did just hold UConn to only 63 points. It’s interesting that both teams’ games were VERY low-scoring in the first half, yet still went Over. Don’t see that happening here. Arkansas held Vermont to 27 points in the 1H while NMSU held UConn to 22. Look for the underdog to try and slow the pace and limit possessions. Only two of the Aggies’ last seven games would have made it Over this total. Teddy Allen will NOT score 37 again here like he did vs. UConn. Keep in mind the rest of the team made just 13 field goals and attempted ZERO free throws. 10* Under New Mexico State/Arkansas |
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03-19-22 | Creighton v. Kansas OVER 139 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
8* Over Creighton/Kansas (2:45 ET): Creighton was really lucky to advance over San Diego State, as the Bluejays scored the final nine points of regulation and the Aztecs missed a free throw that would have clinched the game. However, the 72-69 OT win wasn’t all good fortune for Creighton as starting big man Ryan Kalkbrenner hurt his knee and he won’t be back. That means the Bluejays are now without two of their top three players as Ryan Nembhard, the Big East Freshman of the Year, was already lost to injury. However, led by another freshman (Trey Alexander), I still expect Creighton to put a decent number of points on the board Saturday against Kansas. The top-seeded Jayhawks breezed through their first round game, as expected, beating Texas Southern 83-56 with an effective FG% of 58.0. Kansas is one of the top offensive teams in the country, has shot 50% or better from the field in three of its last four games and averages 78.7 PPG. They are #5 in the country in offensive efficiency. With Kalkbrenner out for Creighton, expect KU’s David McCormack to have a “field day” on the inside here. Also, expect Big XII Player of the Year Ochai Agbagi to have a more productive game than he did Thursday when he finished with only 11 points. With Creighton may be a bit short-handed coming into the second round, I do expect they will dramatically improve upon their three-point shooting from the first round, which was a woeful 14.3%. Over their L2 games, the Blue Jays have hit only 5 of 43 3PA, which is just insane. I know that even with OT, they managed just 72 pts on Thursday. But San Diego State is one of the top defensive teams in the entire country. Kansas is not nearly as stout and will find Creighton much more difficult to defend than Texas Southern was. 8* Over Creighton/Kansas |
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03-18-22 | CS-Fullerton v. Duke UNDER 145.5 | Top | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
8* Under CS-Fullerton/Duke (7:10 ET): While the Duke defense has been a complete mess lately, giving up an average of 82.8 points over the last four games and ranking 224th nationally in efficiency, I don’t see the Blue Devils giving up a ton of points to Cal State Fullerton in this first round matchup. CS Fullerton doesn’t take a ton of threes, so the Titans’ best bet is to keep this one low-scoring. I think they will and the fact Duke’s last games have all gone Over has this number too high. Take the Under. It;s obviously against inferior Big West competition, but the last five games have seen Cal State Fullerton hold its opponents to 39.9% shooting from the floor. In the first two Big West Tourney games, they held opponents to 55 and 46 points. In the Final, they upset top seeded Long Beach State 72-71, thanks to their own hot shooting as they made 52% overall from the field, including 11 of 20 from three-point range. Though I expect them to cover here, I can’t see the Titans matching those percentages against Duke. This is a pretty high total for both teams. CS Fullerton is 16-5 Under its last 21 non-conference games. For the season, their games only average 136.5 PPG total. They’ve had just ONE O/U line north of 145.0 all season and that was in the very first game. The Under is 4-0 the last four times that the Titans have been underdogs. Duke has shot below 25% from three-point range in its last two games and the O/U line for the ACC Tournament Final against Virginia Tech was much lower than this one. 8* Under CS-Fullerton-Duke |
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03-18-22 | Mavs v. 76ers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
10* Under Mavericks/76ers (7:10 ET): Since they acquired James Harden, Sixers’ games have become much more high-scoring. With the exception of the game Harden sat (99-82 loss at Miami), every Philly game since the trade has seen at least 224 total points scored. But, you may recall that a few games ago, I was the beneficiary of overtime with an Over bet on the Sixers win against the Magic. Had it not been for OT, that game would have stayed well Under the number. Here, the Sixers are matched up with the top Under team in the NBA. That’s the way I see this one going. With Dallas, the Under is 24-10-1 this season when they are at home. The percentage isn’t nearly as skewed when they are on the road, but this team is still tied (with Boston) for the league lead in scoring defense, giving up just 103.7 PPG. They’ve been slightly more stingy over the L5 games, allowing only 102.7 PPG. The only team to top 107 against them in that stretch was Brooklyn on Wednesday, a game the Mavs won at the buzzer 113-111. Twice in those last five games Dallas has failed to score 100 themselves. The Under is 40-16 their last 56 games as a road underdog, including a 95-92 win at Boston on Sunday. With just 210.4 total PPG scored, Mavs’ games are - on average - the lowest scoring in the NBA this year. This is a high total for them, owed to Philly’s recent results after the Harden trade. But be aware that the Under is 8-1 in Sixers’ home games this season when the total is 220 or higher. Take the Under. 10* Under Mavericks/76ers |
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03-17-22 | Vermont v. Arkansas UNDER 139.5 | Top | 71-75 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 5 m | Show |
9* Under Vermont/Arkansas (9:20 ET): This promises to be a very popular upset pick as Vermont is a very legit team out of the America East. The Catamounts come into the NCAA Tournament on a real roll, having won eight straight. They hit 60% of their two-point FG attempts and 40% from three-point range in conference play. But I think many be selling Arkansas “short,” as the Razorbacks are a Top 16 team in the country in defensive efficiency and clearly better than any of the other teams from the America East. What I like here is the game to go Under the total as Vermont’s shots won’t be falling at the normal rate. Note that doesn’t mean the Catamounts can’t win here. Arkansas shoots just 30.8% from three-point range, so I hardly see them “running away with things.” Even when the Hogs ripped off 13 wins in 15 games, their three-point percentage didn’t go up much. In five of their last seven games, they shot BELOW their already poor season average from behind the arc. In 9 of 20 conference games, the Razorbacks averaged less than one point per possession. Vermont’s defense is not at all bad (just 60.3 PPG allowed), so again, I’m not looking for the favorite to score a ton here. Arkansas’ last six games all went Over the total, so I think we’re getting a good number here. Vermont has not lost in regulation since Dec 7, but again, you have to take into account the weak competition. Five of the Catamounts’ last six games stayed Under and the one that didn’t required a 98-point effort from them, the likes of which we clearly will not see here, against lowly NJIT. I do think this play comes down to Vermont’s defense, which has not allowed more than 61 points in a game since Valentine’s Day. Given Arkansas’ poor three-point shooting, they’ve got a shot. The Under is 5-1 in Arkansas’ last six NCAA Tourney games. 9* Under Vermont/Arkansas |
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03-16-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 221.5 | Top | 110-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
8* Under Celtics/Warriors (10:10 ET): This promises to be a good game. You’ve got Boston, who I believe is actually the best team in the Eastern Conference right now, going against a Golden State club that needs little introduction. It’s on ESPN. Everyone likes to see scoring, like what we got with last night’s Over play on Brooklyn-Orlando (which included a 60-point individual effort from Kyrie Irving). But here I expect the scoring to stay low as we’ve got two of the best defensive teams in the league. Take the Under. Boston has gone 23-7 SU over its last 30 games. They were below .500 when they lost to the Warriors 111-107 back on Dec 17. The turnaround has been engineered, in large part, because of a defense that is tied for tops in the league in efficiency this season. The Celtics are allowing just 103.9 PPG this season on 43.2% shooting. They did lose on Sunday, but you can’t blame the defense as they held the Mavs to only 95 points. The Under is 10-5 this season for Boston when the OU line is 220 or higher. Who is Boston tied with for the league’s #1 defensive efficiency rating? That would be the Warriors! Here at home, Golden State gives up just 102.3 PPG on 42.2% shooting. Everyone rightly thinks of the Dubs as an offensive juggernaut, but when they were winning championships, their defensive numbers were always among the best in the league. Draymond Green is now back, which is key for the defense. Now the Warriors have gone out and averaged 124 PPG themselves the L2 games, but don’t expect them to approach that number here. Curry won’t score 47 again like he did vs. Washington Monday. 8* Under Celtics/Warriors |
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03-16-22 | Notre Dame v. Rutgers UNDER 132 | Top | 89-87 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
10* Under Notre Dame/Rutgers (9:10 ET): Notre Dame finished the regular season as the 2-seed in the ACC, but I thought it would have been pretty ludicrous to consider the Fighting Irish the second best team in that conference. My power ratings had four ACC teams rated higher, including Wake Forest, who didn’t even make the Big Dance. The Irish could only manage a 3-3 split in their last six games, but still made their first NCAA Tournament appearance in five years. Rutgers had some nice upsets this season, including four straight wins over Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois. However, three of those four were in Piscataway and the Scarlet Knights simply aren’t the same team away from home that they are at the RAC. They have just four wins away from home all season and have dropped four of six overall. Rutgers was in the Tourney last year and made the Round of 32. Led by Ron Harper Jr, this is the first time the program has made B2B appearances in the Big Dance in 40 years. I think this one is set to be low-scoring and I am on the Under. I know that the Over is 7-0-1 in ND’s last eight games, but they are facing a Rutgers team that is 43rd in the country in defensive efficiency. That’s significant because no ACC teams rank higher than that. On the flip side, Rutgers only shoots 33.6% from three-point range and that’s not going to cut it. Before losing to Iowa in the Big 10 Tournament, the Scarlet Knights had not topped 66 in four straight games, all of which stayed Under. 10* Under Notre Dame/Rutgers |
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03-15-22 | Santa Clara v. Washington State UNDER 150 | Top | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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03-15-22 | Nets v. Magic OVER 231 | Top | 150-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* Over Nets/Magic (7:10 ET): Yes, Orlando needed OT to get Over the total in their last game, a 116-114 loss to Philadelphia. But I think it’s highly unlikely they hold the Nets to 38.0% shooting like they did with the Sixers on Sunday. This is a high total, but for good reason as not only is Kevin Durant back, but Kyrie Irving will play for Brooklyn. I see the Nets putting up a big number tonight. While I don’t necessarily trust them to cover the spread, I do like the Over here. I had the Over in that Philly-Orlando game, so I for one welcomed overtime. The Magic, who have been playing better of late, led by 12 at halftime and were still up 10 in the 4Q. The key to building that lead was the 76ers shooting just 33% in the 1H. Again, I can’t see Brooklyn shooting that poorly tonight. The Nets have shot 50% or better from the floor in four of their last six games, a stretch that coincides with Durant coming back. The L3 games with Durant & Irving in the lineup have all seen the Nets score at least 120 points. Both Durant and Irving have turned in 50+ point performances recently. On Sunday, with Irving (unvaccinated) out of the lineup, the Nets won 110-107 over the Knicks with Durant scoring 53. The team shot just 20.7% from three-point range with non-Durant players combining to go 2 of 16. I expect much better shooting tonight. With Brooklyn likely to pile up the points here, we shouldn’t need a huge number from Orlando. Fortunately for them, the Nets are giving up 111.7 PPG this season. The Over is 6-2-1 in the Nets’ L9 road games. 10* Over Nets/Magic |
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03-14-22 | Nuggets v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Nuggets/Sixers (7:40 ET): Also going with the Under in this matchup. Reason being I was a little lucky to cash the Over in last night’s Sixers game, as it went to OT tied at 104. The O/U line was 222.5, so the Over was a loser in regulation, but the 22 points we got in the added five minutes were the difference maker. Philly’s previous three games had all stayed Under and while one of those was with Harden out of the lineup, they’ve generally played solid defense (except in the loss to Brooklyn). Denver needs to get back to playing better defense after allowing an average of 118.8 points over its last five games. I believe they will get back to doing so tonight. For the year, they are giving up 106.4 PPG, so it’s a big difference from what we’ve been seeing lately. Philadelphia has also allowed more points than usual over its last five games. The 76ers have posted an outstanding defensive efficiency rating when Harden and Joel Embiid are on the court together. The number had even rivaled the Celtics, the league-leaders in defensive efficiency. Denver won’t shoot 55% again like it did on Saturday, even though I believe they cover the spread here. 10* Under Nuggets/Sixers |
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03-13-22 | 76ers v. Magic OVER 223 | Top | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* Over Sixers/Magic (6:10 ET): Two teams off surprising results meet Sunday in Orlando. The Sixers have had two days to recover from their 29-point beatdown at the hands of Brooklyn. That was the first time they lost with James Harden in the lineup. The fact that the loss came at the hands of Harden’s former team made it a bit more painful. Orlando, meanwhile, turned in a shocking performance on Friday, beating the T’wolves 118-110 as a 7.5-point home underdog. They were my 10* Game of the Week! That was the Magic’s second straight upset win as well as their fifth victory in the last eight games overall, so Philly must take this game seriously. I think they will. Consider that in the first five games with Harden in the lineup, the Sixers scored no fewer than 121 points. The last two matchups vs. Orlando have seen them score 116 and 123 points and that was before Harden came over. The Sixers shot just 32.3% against the Nets, a number they will easily eclipse here. They are 5-0 Over on Sundays this season. Orlando can only hope for the kind of offensive day against Philly that Brooklyn enjoyed. The Sixers gave up 40 points in the first quarter and 72 in the first half. The Magic did make 15 of 30 three-point attempts over the final three quarters against Minnesota. Their last five games have all stayed Under, but I think there’s reason to be concerned over how the Magic defense will hold up here. I do think they score enough to help send this one OVER the total. 10* Over Sixers/Magic |
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03-13-22 | Alavés v. Real Sociedad UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
10* Under Alaves/Real Sociedad (1:30 ET): Sociedad has managed to stay in the top seven of La Liga, despite a -1 GD, and a win here could move them as high as fifth. But looking at the other clubs fighting for the European positions, Sociedad’s YTD GD really does “stick out like a sore thumb” and I remain leery. Last week’s 4-1 thrashing at the hands of table leaders Real Madrid illustrates the gap in quality between Sociedad and the top six, thus I won’t be backing them to collect the full three points here. Now I’m also not about to back Alaves, who sit 19th and in the relegation zone. El Glorioso are now winless in 14 of their last 15 fixtures after last week’s 0-0 draw with Sevilla. They should be somewhat commended for keeping Sevilla off the scoresheet, however scoring also continues to be a major problem for Alaves themselves as they come in dead last in the league in goals scored with just 21. There has been just one occasion since the new year where they scored more than one goal. Five times they haven’t scored at all. La Real has only averaged 1.17 xG per match in 2022 and for the season they are just 13th in shots. So the offense isn’t really where most expected it to be. They’ll be dealing with some absences from the usual starting XI on Sunday as well. Sociedad knows that it might only take a single goal to prevail here; I don’t see them scoring twice. At the same time, they probably don’t need to worry about Alaves scoring. It was 1-1 when these teams met on Jan 2. Expect another low-scoring battle. 10* Under Alaves/Real Sociedad |
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03-12-22 | Virginia Tech v. Duke UNDER 138.5 | Top | 82-67 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Va Tech/Duke (8:30 ET): This is a crucial game for Virginia Tech, who is considered among the “first four out” (for the NCAA Tournament) according to both ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm. Coming into the ACC Tournament, I had the Hokies as the second best team in the conference, so I’m not surprised they’ve made it thus far. They were actually a pick ‘em vs. #2 seed Notre Dame, then turned in a very impressive performance last night in defeating North Carolina 72-59. It would be a crime if Va Tech missed the NCAA Tournament as my power rankings call them a Top 25 team in the country. My only concern with the Hokies coming into tonight’s Tourney Final vs. Duke is that they may not have a ton left in the tank. This will be their fourth game in as many days, a stretch which began with an OT win over Clemson. I also would not be confident in the Hokies shooting 45% from three-point range again like they did last night. The Hokies have scored above their season average in every game in this tournament. Do we really think they can do that for the fourth straight game? Duke is 0-2 ATS in ACC Tournament games, having been tested more than expected by Syracuse and Miami. We know the Blue Devils can score, but even by their standard, the past five games (all of which have gone Over) have been a bit outrageous. They are averaging 86.4 points on 51.4% shooting. Those numbers are due to come down. Va Tech held UNC to 3 of 26 from three-point range last night. When these teams played in the regular season, they snuck over by two points, but that was with Duke shooting 53% from the field. I don’t think they’ll shoot that well here. 10* Under Va Tech/Duke |
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03-11-22 | USC v. UCLA UNDER 137 | Top | 59-69 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
10* Under USC/UCLA (11:30 ET): This is one of the better matchups on Friday’s entire docket as rivals USC and UCLA meet in the Pac 12 Tournament’s second semi final. USC had to rally in the second half last night to get by Washington 65-61 and did not cover the 6.5-point spread. UCLA just barely covered the nine-point spread in a 75-65 win over Washington State. UCLA comes in ranked 13th in the country, perhaps a bit low, while USC is 21st and I definitely think that’s too high. While I may believe the Trojans to be overrated, I’m not about to fade them in this scenario. I expect a tight and relatively low-scoring game. Five of the previous USC-UCLA meetings have stayed Under the total, the exception being the last one. That game was played last weekend and despite losing, USC shot very well from three-point range (42.1%). The fact they could only score 68 points on the Bruins with that kind of three-point shooting is a little ominous. I don’t expect USC to shoot that well from three again here. UCLA has gone Over in four straight, but they have not allowed more than 68 points in any of the last nine games. The Under is 10-2 their L12 games vs. a team with a win percentage above .600. The Under is also 6-2 the last eight times they’ve been off an ATS win. USC is 5-0 Under its last five neutral site games. In terms of tempo, neither side plays particularly fast. 10* Under USC/UCLA |
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03-10-22 | Cal-Riverside v. Hawaii OVER 124.5 | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
8* Over UC Riverside/Hawaii (11:30 ET): This is the #3 vs. #6 (seed) matchup in the Big West quarterfinals. Hawaii, despite being seeded higher, is a slight underdog here in Henderson, NV. The Warriors won five of seven to end the regular season, capping the run with a dominant 84-62 win over Cal State Northridge in the finale. Given the number of points they scored there, combined with UC Riverside’s recent trend, this O/U line looks far too low. I’m going Over. So UC Riverside has seen the Over hit in each of its last seven games. The last one had a total of 142 (they lost 73-72 to Long Beach State). Given that final score, I’m truly amazed at how LOW this total is as none of Riverside’s last seven games have seen fewer than 136 total points scored. Now, the Highlanders have been scoring WELL above their season average recently. But even for the year, their games average 130.2 points. The one time these teams played in the regular season, the game did stay Under. It was a 64-59 Riverside victory as three-point home favorites. Note that the total for that game was higher than it is here. Also, in the first meeting, the teams combined to go 12 of 35 from three-point range. I expect better shooting here. UC Riverside has shot 54% overall from the field in its last five games and Hawaii is shooting 36% from three-point range for the season. 8* Over UC Riverside/Hawaii |
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03-10-22 | Watford v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
9* Over Watford/Wolverhampton (2:30 ET): These two slumping Premier League sides are both desperate for three points coming into Thursday. Wolverhampton, though still in the top half of the table, has dropped three straight with the most recent loss being 2-0 at the hands of Crystal Palace. That was after being blanked 1-0 by West Ham and a gut-wrenching 2-1 loss to Arsenal. Thankfully for the Wolves, it’s a drop in class here as they face relegation-threatened Watford, who sits 19th in the table and has won just one time since late November! Yet Watford is still somehow just three points adrift of safety, so a win here would do the Hornets wonders. I faded them their last time out, which ended up being a 3-2 loss to Arsenal. That was Watford’s first time putting two goals on the board since a 4-2 loss to Leicester City on November 28th! But looking at this fixture, the Wolves’ defense is not as impenetrable as it once was and they are due to start conceding more. The gap between the number of actual goals allowed by the Wolves (23) and their xGA (37.29) is by far the largest in all of the Premier League. I do think the Wolves are due to get on the scoresheet themselves though. They’ve shockingly failed to score a goal in three of their last four fixtures here at Molineux, a run I just can’t see continuing. Not with Watford having conceded the third most goals in the entire EPL. With me projecting both sides to score on Thursday, taking the Over here seems to be a “no brainer.” 9* Over Watford/Wolverhampton |
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03-09-22 | Georgetown v. Seton Hall UNDER 144.5 | Top | 53-57 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
9* Under Georgetown/Seton Hall (9:30 ET): What an absolutely atrocious season it has been for Patrick Ewing and Georgetown. The Hoyas shockingly won the Big East Tournament last year, but haven’t won a conference game since as they finished the regular season 0-19 SU vs. the rest of the BE! Needless to say, there is NOT going to be a repeat of LY’s Cinderella run. I fully expect that the Hoyas’ season will end today, but of course they are big underdogs. I think the better play is on the total. Seton Hall is a team that I have some faith in. The Pirates might only be the 6-seed in this tournament, but my power ratings actually call them a Top 25 team in the country! I would favor them, on a neutral court, over regular season champ Providence. Unfortunately for SH, one of the two BE teams I think is better (UConn) awaits them in the next round. I also don’t trust the Pirates laying double digits here, particularly after they failed to cover against G’town last week (won by only five). That meeting last week just barely stayed Under the number (145) as it was a 73-68 final. The first meeting also stayed Under and was even lower-scoring (70-63). At a neutral site (Madison Square Garden), I don’t think we’ll be seeing a higher scoring game as the Pirates are 15-4 Under their L19 games vs. teams that have losing records. Only one of their last 11 games overall would have gone Over this total. Georgetown is shooting just 38.5% away from home this year, Seton Hall isn’t much better. 9* Under Georgetown/Seton Hall |
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03-08-22 | Delaware v. NC-Wilmington OVER 134 | Top | 59-55 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
8* Over Delaware/UNC Wilmington (7:00 ET): Both teams involved in the CAA Tourney Final have gone Under in four straight games. But I believe we’re getting some tremendous value here with this number, considering the last time Delaware and UNC Wilmington met, the O/U line closed at 143.5. Now, that matchup did stay Under, but that was because UNC Wilmington only managed to shoot 40% overall and 2 of 15 from three-point range (still won 69-62). It should be noted that the season’s first meeting, a 70-68 UNCW victory, did go Over the total. So will this third installment. It is a surprise that Delaware has gotten thus far. The Blue Hens were the 5-seed entering this tournament and last night pulled an upset over the top seed, Towson, winning 69-56 as a 4.5-point underdog. The Blue Hens really benefited from poor Towson shooting as the Tigers shot just 31% overall and were a hideous 4 of 23 from three-point range. While Delaware held both tournament opponents to just 56 points, I don’t think they can count on UNCW shooting as poorly as Towson did last night. Also, Delaware gives up 70.3 PPG on the year. I’ve gone through UNC Wilmington’s season before; they have been an extremely fortunate team that always seems to win close. Last night was no different as the second seeded Seahawks outlasted Charleston 60-57. I made the mistake of betting against them. Not going to get in their way again. But like Delaware, UNCW probably can’t count on the same defensive numbers they turned in last night as they held Charleston to a 38.3 FG% with only four made three-pointers and seven made free throws. I think this number is too low. 8* Over Delaware/UNC Wilmington |
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03-06-22 | College of Charleston v. Hofstra UNDER 160.5 | Top | 92-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
9* Under Charleston/Hofstra (8:30 ET): Ok, I don’t think for a second that this game will be as high-scoring as the regular season finale, when Hofstra beat Charleston 89-84. Hofstra is very good at forcing turnovers, but even by their standard, last Monday was preposterous. They forced Charleston into 28 TO’s, a season-high, and obviously feasted off those. Assuming the Cougars cut down on the number of turnovers, that should limit fast-break opportunities for the Pride and I like this game to stay Under a (very) high total. Over their last five games, Charleston has shot a somewhat insane 54.1% from the field. That can’t continue. For the year, the Cougs are shooting just 43.8%. Because of their tempo, this team is always going to score a decent amount of points. But what we’ve seen from them lately is simply not sustainable. Charleston also made 52% of its three-point attempts in the last game. That won’t be repeated either as they are shooting just 33.7% from behind the arc for the season. Hofstra is also a high-scoring team, but this total is high even by their standard. Seeing a total open at 160 or higher in today’s day and age is quite rare. I know that the last game closed at 160, but that was a season-high for both teams. With a cleaner game by Charleston (who won’t shoot as well) and it being at a neutral court, this one promises to stay Under. The first meeting of the season, also won by Hofstra, was a 76-73 final. Look for something along those lines tonight. 9* Under Charleston/Hofstra |
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03-05-22 | North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 153.5 | Top | 94-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
8* Under North Carolina/Duke (6:00 ET): It’s Coach K’s swan song at Cameron Indoor Stadium as this is set to be his final home game on the Duke bench. It’s obviously going to be an emotional setting, facing rival North Carolina in the last game of the regular season. Duke is clearly the class of the ACC this season and beat UNC handily, 87-67, in Chapel Hill earlier this year. Not surprisingly, the Blue Devils are big favorites for the rematch. But I think the better play is on the total. In that first meeting, Duke shot a blistering 57.6% from the field. Can’t see that happening again. The teams also combined to shoot 18 of 40 from three-point range, a very high percentage. Again, don’t look for that to be repeated. With all the pregame festivities planned for this game, I can see the shooters affected and this game to get off to a slow start offensively. The last five UNC-Duke games have all gone Over the total, but none will have the emotion of this one. It will not be the kind of “up and down” game we saw last month. Duke is also due to cool off here after shooting a blistering 59% against Pittsburgh earlier in the week. In that game, they made 50% of their 3PA. Again, these kinds of numbers simply can’t be produced every game. Note, after the hot shooting in the first UNC matchup, the Blue Devils came back down to Earth 48 hours later and shot just 42.3% in a loss to Virginia. The final score of North Carolina’s last game, 88-79 over Syracuse, is misleading when you consider that it went to overtime. It was 72-72 at the end of regulation. 8* Under North Carolina/Duke |
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03-05-22 | Pittsburgh v. Notre Dame UNDER 133 | Top | 54-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
10* Under Pittsburgh/Notre Dame (2:30 ET): The Fighting Irish have an excellent chance of finishing second in the ACC. All they need to do is win here and have North Carolina lose to Duke. The odds of that happening are certainly good. Now, do I think for a second that ND is actually the second best team in the ACC? No. But we can tackle that at a later date. Here, I’m focused on the total, which I believe is too high against a Pitt team that is inept offensively and won’t score very many points Saturday. Take the Under. Pitt is near the bottom of the ACC with a 6-13 SU record in conference play. Only NC State and Georgia Tech will finish below the Panthers and it’s likely to be a quick exit in next week’s ACC Tournament. Pitt comes into the regular season finale on a three-game losing streak, every one of the losses coming at home, and the last two were blowouts. I mentioned earlier that the Panthers are not a strong offensive team; they average just 60.5 points per game away from home this season. Notre Dame is allowing just 63.8 PPG in South Bend, so expect Pitt to score fewer here than the 67 they finished with in the first meeting, back in December. The Panthers haven’t scored more than 64 in any of their last three games. Notre Dame, who has seen the Over hit in each of its last six games, is due to have a low-scoring game. Pitt has been victimized by hot shooting each of its last two games, but don’t be surprised if ND shoots worse than usual here as they are off a loss (74-70 to Florida State) and 4-1-1 Under off their L6 SU losses. 10* Under Pittsburgh/Notre Dame |
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03-04-22 | Knicks v. Suns UNDER 223.5 | Top | 114-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
8* Under Knicks/Suns (10:10 ET): Two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum are meeting Friday night on ESPN. The Suns have firmly established themselves as the best team in the NBA right now. They are 50-12 on the season and have won 20 of their last 23 games. Following a RARE two-game losing skid (lost to New Orleans and Utah), the Suns bounced back in a major way on Wednesday with a 30-point beatdown of Portland. They are surprisingly short favorites tonight against the moribund Knicks, but there’s a reason for that (more on it in a moment). The Knicks have lost six in a row and 10 of their last 11. They are 0-6 ATS L6 and 1-10 ATS L11 as well. Even making the play-in round now seems like a bit of a stretch as the Knicks trail the 10th place Hawks by five games. Playing better defense would help. Over its last five games, NY has given up an average of 120.2 PPG. All five games have gone Over the total. This is a team that normally allows “just” 107.3 PPG. But, as alluded to earlier, they are catching a major break tonight. That major break is that the Suns won’t have Chris Paul or Devin Booker aka “their starting backcourt.” I know that they just dropped 120 on Portland without the pair, but it seems unlikely that they could repeat that performance here. Note that tonight’s total is about 10 points higher compared to the season’s first Knicks-Suns matchup, which had both Paul and Booker in the lineup! I’m less concerned about how the absences will affect Phoenix’s defense, which is #3 in the NBA in efficiency. Also, the Knicks are 27th in pace. 8* Under Knicks/Suns |
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03-04-22 | Illinois State v. Northern Iowa UNDER 147 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under Illinois State/Northern Iowa (1:00 ET): This is the first of four MVC quarterfinals on Friday. The top seed is Northern Iowa, who had a bit of a shocking late season run to earn its position, beating conference favorite Loyola Chicago (in overtime) in the final game of the regular season. The Panthers have won 9 of 10 (lone loss was a blowout to Loyola) and have shot the lights out in each of their last three games. But in this early start, I’m looking for scoring to be a lot lower than expected. Illinois State had to win a game to get here. The Redbirds downed Indiana State yesterday, in an ugly 58-53 game where they covered the spread as 1.5-point chalk. ISU has been one of the more unlucky teams in the country this season, but now finds itself playing with “house money.” It can’t be ignored that before defeating Indiana State twice (also faced them in the reg season finale), the Redbirds had lost 10 of 11. Really, their only chance here is to slow the game down. They can’t outscore Northern Iowa. Let me point out that both regular season meetings between these teams stayed Under. There were 142 and 143 total pts scored in those games. Looking through the season results, this is a high O/U line for both teams. Both have had only two games where the O/U line was higher than 149. Northern Iowa has shot better than 55% over its L3 games, a number they cannot possibly maintain at a neutral setting. The Panthers have gone 21-8 Under in their L29 MVC Tourney games. 8* Under Illinois St/Northern Iowa |
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03-03-22 | Northern Colorado v. Montana UNDER 147.5 | Top | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* Under Northern Colorado/Montana (9:00 ET): The Big Sky regular season is wrapping up this week. This is an important game with Northern Colorado and Montana battling for seeding. Both are locks to finish in the top five, which means a bye in the first round. But both also have a chance to finish as high as second depending on how things go. Montana is coming off a big upset win over Montana State, who has already clinched the regular season title. Northern Colorado just won a wild game over Idaho. Since I am playing the total here, I should probably mention that EVERY Montana game in the month of February went Over. That’s eight straight Overs. They’ve allowed three straight opponents to shoot 51% or better from the floor. But the key here is how the Golden Grizzlies’ defense improves - remarkably - at home where they are giving up an average of only 58.2 PPG this season. That’s top 16 in the country! Against Montana State on Sunday, they allowed just ONE three-pointer to be made! Northern Colorado has gone Over in four straight and beat Idaho 98-94 on Sunday (no overtime!). Both teams shot 55% in that game, which I can’t see being replicated here. Because of all the Overs, this number opened 17.5 points higher than the closing O/U line for the first meeting. So I’m seeing lots of value here. This is a very high total by Montana standards. In fact, it’s the highest O/U line for any of their games this season. 10* Under Northern Colorado/Montana |
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03-01-22 | Clippers v. Rockets OVER 229.5 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
10* Over Clippers/Rockets (8:10 ET): Second time in a row these teams are facing off, which is probably just fine as far as the Clippers are concerned, considering that the Rockets have now lost nine in a row and 13 of their last 14. It was a low-scoring game when they met on Sunday, 99-98, with the Clippers rallying to win in the 4Q. The Under was an easy winner there (by more than 30 points!), but you should expect a lot more points from tonight’s rematch and I’m calling for an Over. Houston games average the most possessions in the league as they play at the fastest tempo. More possessions (theoretically) should lead to more points. The thing is neither team shot all that well on Sunday as the Clippers made only 44.2% of their attempts while the Rockets were down at 38.0%. The teams did combine for 76 three-point attempts and there’s no reason to believe we won’t see a similar number tonight. For the year, the Clippers and Rockets combine to average 73 3PA per game. The Rockets also have the league’s worst defensive efficiency rating, not a surprise seeing as how they are allowing 117.8 PPG, easily the most in the NBA. Sunday marked the first time since November 6th that they held an opponent below 100 points. Even so, Houston has still allowed 123.8 PPG over its last five contests. Los Angeles is a lock to score a lot more here and Houston should be more effective inside the arc than they were on Sunday (just 18 of 50 on 2PA). It’s a big increase in points that the oddsmakers are asking for, but then again the Over is 18-9 in Rockets’ home games. 10* Over Clippers/Rockets |
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02-25-22 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 217 | Top | 109-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
10* Under Mavs/Jazz (9:10 ET): Dallas was the top Under team in the league over the first half (of the season) with a 36-21-2 mark. Now, the Under has been hitting a lot more regularly in their HOME games (22-8-1), but what is interesting about that is the average total number of points per game scored in Dallas home games (207.8) is not all that different from what we see on the road (212.3). Facing a Utah team that has gone Under in six of seven games in February, I expect a low-scoring first game post-All Star Break Friday night. The way things stand right now in the Western Conference, this would be a first round playoff matchup. Utah is 4th, though I believe there’s a good chance they will catch and pass Memphis for 3rd by the end of the regular season. The Jazz are one of the NBA’s highest scoring teams (113.7 PPG), however their defense has been outstanding this month with 106 being the most points allowed in any game. Dallas is a solid 5th in the West, also having won six of its last seven games. These teams have met just one time so far this season and it was on X-Mas with Utah winning a high-scoring game, 120-116 here in Salt Lake City. The Mavs played that game short-handed. Tonight, look for them to control the tempo (they place at the slowest pace in the league) in order to limit the damage Utah can do offensively. Again, this is the first game back after a long All-Star Break and shooters could be rusty on both sides. 10* Under Mavs/Jazz |
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02-19-22 | Johnny Walker v. Jon Hill OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
10* Over Walker/Hill (8:50 ET): For those less familiar with UFC betting, this is a wager on the # of rounds the fight will go and I’m taking the Over 1.5. That means the fight must make it past the halfway mark of the second round. This is the main event of the evening, pitting two Light Heavyweights, Johnny Walker (18-6 overall, 4-3 in the UFC) against Jamahal Hill (9-1, 3-1). I realize that Walker has a number of first round finishes in his career, but two of his last three fights have gone all the way to the scorecards. That includes his last one, a unanimous decision loss to Thiago Santos. That was a five-round fight, just like this one is. Walker was also beaten by unanimous decision back in March of 2020 by Nikita Krylov. He has a bit of a wild fighting style, but after sustaining two injuries over the last couple of years, you’ve got to wonder how much of the explosiveness is left. Hill did not spend much time in the cage during 2021 as both fights were over before the end of the first round. He suffered his only career loss in June of last year when he was TKO’d by Paul Craig. But then Hill came back and KO’d Jimmy Crute just 48 seconds into their fight in December. Those results are probably why this O/U is set so low, however something to note is that Hill had only two of his first eight fights end in the first round. With this being the main event, look for a bit of a “feeling out process” and this one to go longer than the oddsmakers are expecting. 10* Over Walker/Hill |
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02-18-22 | Torino v. Juventus UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Torino/Juventus (2:45 ET): Juve got a last-gasp equalizer on Sunday against Atalanta, thus keeping alive their unbeaten streak, which has now reached 11 across all competitions. Last week’s 1-1 draw also kept “The Old Lady” fourth in the Serie A table with a seven-point gap between them and the top three. Holding on to the last Champions League spot is going to be tough as you’ve got a number of other sides within striking distance. Friday’s fixture with 10th place Torino will not be easy. While Juve is in excellent form right now, Torino is coming off a series of unfortunate results as they’ve managed only one point from their last three fixtures. That was from a 1-1 draw with mid-table Sassuolo and since then there have been B2B defeats, 2-0 to Udinese and 2-1 to Venezia, the latter being quite disappointing. The Turin Derby has not been a favorable fixture for Torino in recent years as they last beat Juventus in April of ‘15. Away form hasn’t been good for Torino this year either; they’ve picked up just nine points (third fewest in Serie A) plus their last win here at Allianz Stadium was in the 1994-95 season. History is not on the side of the underdog, but I don’t like the spot for the favorite either as Juve may be looking ahead to next week’s Champions League tie with Villarreal. So the play here is going to be on the Under. Juve has conceded below 1.0 xGA in 11 of its last 12 Serie A matches and has conceded the third fewest number of goals in the league this season. Torino is no defensive slouch either as it has conceded the fourth fewest goals. When these sides met earlier in the season, it was a 1-0 match (won by Juve). 8* Under Torino/Juventus |
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02-16-22 | Bayern Munich v. Salzburg OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
10* Over Bayern Munich/RB Salzburg (3:00 ET): I expect plenty of goals to be scored in this first leg of the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 matchup. These two sides met twice in last year’s Champions League, albeit in the Group Stage, with Bayern winning 6-2 and 3-1. Both matches featured over 30 shots and 4.6 expected goals. I’m not saying to expect another eight goals like when they last faced off here in Austria, but expect at least half that number on Wednesday. Bayern Munich’s offensive prowess needs little introduction at this point. The 2019 UCL winners currently lead the Bundesliga (as per usual) and have scored a whopping 70 goals in their 22 matches on the domestic front. In this year’s Group Stage of the UCL, Bayern scored 22 goals in sweeping all six matches. Seven of their last eight matches across all competitions have seen at least four total goals scored. You should obviously expect the favorites to find the scoresheet multiple times here. But also expect Bayern to concede AT LEAST a goal in this first leg. I’ve already mentioned that they conceded three times to Salzburg in the two matches last year. Well, they’ve also conceded in four of their last five matches coming into Wednesday and most of those fixtures were against teams in the bottom half of the Bundesliga. Bayern just conceded FOUR times in a shock loss to Bochum last weekend. This version of Salzburg is much improved from the one that faced Bayern last season and will definitely find the scoresheet. 10* Over Bayern Munich/RB Salzburg |
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02-15-22 | Clippers v. Suns OVER 223.5 | Top | 96-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
8* Over Clippers/Suns (10:00 ET): So the Clippers sure proved me wrong last night, defeating the Warriors as six-point underdogs (at home), 119-104. They shot an incredible 56.5% from the floor against the league’s most efficient defense. While they probably aren’t reaching those heights tonight, in a tough spot vs. Phoenix, any offensive regression should be “canceled out” by some defensive regression, this being the second night of a back to back. Stopping the Suns, who have topped 130 points in each of the last two games, will be tough. Steph Curry had his way with this Clippers defense in the first half last night, scoring 26 points. Curry and his teammates then cooled off considerably in the second half. The rest of the team shot just 41.2%. I don’t think the Clippers will be able to do that to the Suns. While their defense has improved somewhat, LA still allowed both Milwaukee and Memphis to score more than 130 recently. Phoenix has the second most efficient offense in all of basketball. In each of these teams’ last seven games, the Over is 6-1. Again, with tired legs, defending the Suns is likely going to be a problem tonight for the Clippers. Keep in mind that right before beating the Warriors, they allowed Luka Doncic to score nearly 100 points by himself in two games against them. On the flip side, with the All-Star Break approaching, we may not see the same defensive intensity here from the Suns. The Clippers have scored at least 109 points in 10 of their last 11 games. That would be more than enough for another Over here. 8* Over Clippers/Suns |
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02-15-22 | Hornets v. Wolves UNDER 243.5 | Top | 120-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10* Under Hornets/T’wolves (8:10 ET): I realize that “all signs” point to the Over in this matchup, but it’s the highest O/U line of the season in the NBA and I’m going Under. Minnesota has been on a simply incredible run of Overs lately with that particular bet hitting in 16 of their last 19 contests. Eventually though, that run must subside. Why not at home where their games “only” average 214.4 PPG, which is well down from their overall season average of 225.0 PPG? While Minnesota has been surging as of late, Charlotte is heading in the opposite direction. They have dropped seven of eight and in the last game trailed 74-43 at the half. That was at home. The Hornets did defeat the T’wolves back in November, 133-115, but they shot a blistering 55.7% from the floor in that game, including 23 of 40 from three-point range. Those numbers will not be repeated tonight. Before their last two games both went Over, Charlotte was on a run of six straight Unders. The Under is also 6-0 this year when they are on exactly two days’ rest (as they are here). As I mentioned, Charlotte has lost seven of eight. In the one win, which was against the moribund Pistons, they scored 141 and shot 55.7%. But in the seven losses, they have shot no better than 42.6% from the floor. I get why this total is so high, but again, it’s the highest O/U line for any NBA game this season and very reactionary towards recent results. Even giving up the most PPG in the Eastern Conference, Hornets’ games “only” average 228.4 PPG. There’s value here on the Under. 10* Under Hornets/T’wolves |
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02-12-22 | Stuttgart v. Bayer Leverkusen UNDER 3.25 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -111 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Stuttgart/Leverkusen (12:30 PM ET): I would like to start by “formally apologizing” for last week’s 10* Total of the Year play here in the Bundesliga. It was a true “comedy of errors.” The proceedings began with both sides (Dortmund and Leverkusen) benefitting from an “own goal” in the first 16 minutes. That is ridiculous. From there, I knew I was done for, but what must be pointed out about the match ending up 5-2 (for Leverkusen) is that there were only a combined 3.41 xG! Leverkusen’s actual goal total this Bundesliga season (54) exceeds their xG total by almost 14! Among Europe’s “Big 5” leagues, only Serie A’s Lazio has overachieved more from a goal scoring perspective. Considering this, and what happened last week, there HAS to be some inevitable offensive regression from this side. They’ve scored 10 goals in just the last two matches. That pace simply cannot be maintained, especially by a side that’s already overachieving its xG total by so much. No “clean sheets” in the last 11 games is also something to consider for Leverkusen. But I won’t be surprised if that streak comes to an end this week as they face Stuttgart, who currently sits in the relegation zone, ahead of only Greuther Furth. Stuttgart had not scored in five straight fixtures before losing 3-2 to Eintracht Frankfurt last week. What was crazy about that last result is that Stuttgart had an xGA (expected goals allowed) of just 0.84 in that match. It may seem “dicey,” but I truly believe we’re heading for an Under here. 10* Under Stuttgart/Leverkusen |
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02-12-22 | Bologna v. Lazio UNDER 2.75 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -54.5 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
10* Under Bologna/Lazio (9:00 AM ET): I thought I had it last week, taking the Under on Lazio. It was 0-0 at the half against Fiorentina, who were playing for the first time since its leading scorer Dusan Vlahovic transferred to Juventus. Lazio, as mentioned in the analysis, has exceeded its xG total more than not just every side in Serie A, but every side in any of Europe’s “Big 5” leagues. But in the second half, disaster struck as Lazio struck for three goals, just barely sending the match Over the total. The real “kicker” was that the third goal was an OG (own goal) from Fiorentina. But I’m sticking to “my guns” here. Lazio has now incredibly exceeded its xG total by almost 15 in league play. That’s absurd. However, a four match unbeaten run ended midweek with a 4-0 loss in the Coppa Italia semis to AC Milan. Certainly, conceding four times there was a sharp departure from what Lazio had done previously as they were coming off four consecutive “clean sheets.” But perhaps most costly of all was that top scorer Ciro Immobile limped off the pitch Wednesday and may be forced to miss this fixture. Having not conceded a single goal in its last three Serie A matches, Lazio should do fine here on the back end against sputtering Bologna, who is down to 13th place after winning just once in its last eight tries. It was a 0-0 draw vs. Empoli LW for Bologna. That was the sixth time in the previous seven fixtures that they were held to one goal or less. Throw in Lazio’s inevitable offensive regression and you’ve got to like the Under here. 10* Under Bologna/Lazio |
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02-09-22 | Raptors v. Thunder UNDER 207.5 | Top | 117-98 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
10* Under Raptors/Thunder (8:10 ET): For the sixth straight time, Toronto came out ahead a winner on Monday. I had them as they won 116-101 in Charlotte. It was the second time in three games I threw my money behind the Raptors, having previously done so when they beat Chicago last Thursday. Turns out I could have backed them in any of these six games, as not only are they 6-0 straight up, but also 6-0 ATS. They’ve got to like their chances of extending the win streak to seven games as they face OKC tonight. This spread is a little “rich for my blood,” however there’s also no chance I back the Thunder without their leading scorer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) against a red hot team like the Raptors. Oklahoma City is last in the league in scoring (101.0 PPG) and 29th in offensive efficiency. In three of the last five games and 6 of the last 10, they have not broken 100 points. Keep in mind that two of those games went to overtime, so only once in that 10-game stretch have they topped 103 in regulation. I don’t see OKC doing much offensively in this game either. The one positive for them though is that they have held their last five opponents to an average of 102.2 PPG. Toronto’s offensive numbers have gone “through the roof” during the win streak, but two of the wins required overtime. A 124-120 win in Miami went to triple overtime. The last two games have been vs. Atlanta and Charlotte, two of the worst defensive teams in the league. I sense we’re in for a fairly low-scoring battle here. 10* Under Raptors/Thunder |
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02-06-22 | Celtics v. Magic UNDER 215.5 | Top | 116-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
10* Under Celtics/Magic (6:10 ET): Orlando, who has the worst record in the league, has seen a recent surge in scoring, both at the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. The team’s last five games have all gone Over the total. They’ve allowed an average of 118 PPG during this stretch, including 135 yesterday to Memphis, but it’s also been five straight games of them scoring 110+ points, which is rather abnormal for a team that’s 28th in the league at 103.3 PPG for the season. So what I’m saying is you should expect the Magic to start scoring less. Let’s start here, the second game of a back to back, a situation that sees them average only 100 PPG. They are facing a Boston team that’s won four in a row and six of its last seven. In five of those six wins, the Celtics have held their opponent below the century mark. In a previous visit to Orlando, which was pretty early in the season, the Celtics came here and won 92-79, holding the Magic to 32.1% shooting, including 9 of 43 from three-point range. Boston’s four-game win streak is a season-high as they are now in 8th place in the Eastern Conference. They are actually tied for the fourth best point differential, so I’d expect them to continue climbing. This is a bit of a “tricky” spot though, as it’s an easy game to overlook with Brooklyn on deck. The Under is 4-0 in the Celtics’ last four road games as well as 6-1 their L7 games overall. It’s 7-0 when they are on the road and facing an opponent with a home winning percentage of less than .400. 10* Under Celtics/Magic |
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02-06-22 | Bayer Leverkusen v. Borussia Dortmund UNDER 3.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 39 m | Show |
10* Under Borussia Dortmund/Bayer Leverkusen (9:30 AM ET): This clash of top three sides in the Bundesliga doubles as a pairing of the two that have overachieved the most in terms of goal scoring this season. In their previous match before the Winter Break, Dortmund ran away with a 3-2 win over Hoffenheim. Now I missed with the Under there, but the big news was star Erling Haaland being taken off with an injury in the 63rd minute. After his injury, the lone goal for BVB was a gift, an “own goal” by Hoffenheim. Still nursing a groin injury, it’s looking like a near certainty that Haaland will sit here. That’s really key to playing this fixture Under the total. So is the fact that the opposition, Bayer Leverkusen, has also greatly exceeded its number of xG (expected goals). For those who are unfamiliar, xG is the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on the characteristics of that shot and the events leading up to it. It’s a very reliable metric for how many goals a team SHOULD have scored. Dortmund has 52 goals scored on the second, second most in the Bundesliga (trailing only Bayern Munich). But their xG is 39.96. Similarly, Leverkusen has exceeded its xG total (38.32) by almost 11 goals. When these teams played the reverse fixture back in September, there were seven goals scored, but only on 24 shots and one was a penalty. Haaland scored twice, including the penalty. With the star talisman not on the pitch Sunday, now is the perfect time to call for regression and play the Under. 10* Under Borussia Dortmund/Bayer Leverkusen |
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02-05-22 | Lazio v. Fiorentina UNDER 2.75 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -51 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
10* Under Lazio/Fiorentina (2:45 ET): Lots of reasons to like the Under here. For starters, Fiorentina’s leading goal scorer (Dusan Vlahovic) has moved onto Juventus via the transfer window. That is a crushing blow for the Viola’s hopes of playing European football next season. Vlahovic had scored 17 of his club’s 41 goals this season while also creating 34% of their xG. No other player on the team has generated more than 0.5 xG per 90 minutes. Bottom line: expect this side to score a lot fewer goals moving forward. No side in Serie A, or any of Europe’s “Big 5” leagues, has exceeded its xG more than Lazio. They’ve scored 46 times on 30.1 xG and that’s pretty ridiculous. Over the last seven matches alone, they’ve scored 14 goals despite an xG total of only 8.3. But signs of regression are there; last time on the pitch Lazio played to a goalless draw with Atalanta, a team whose fixtures almost always end up being high-scoring. So we’ve got every reason to believe both of these sides won’t be scoring much here. This is a critical fixture for both as they enter Saturday tied for seventh with 36 points each. I’m not convinced either of them will make their way to European football for next season. But I am convinced about the regression in goal scoring. Lazio has kept three consecutive clean sheets, holding Atalanta, Napoli and Salernitana to zero goals. It was 1-0, in Lazio’s favor, when these teams met in Rome back in October. Fiorentina isn’t bad defensively either as they are tied for 7th in GA. 10* Under Lazio/Fiorentina |
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02-05-22 | Mercer v. Chattanooga OVER 136 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
8* Over Mercer/Chattanooga (12:00 ET): Chattanooga’s 80-72 loss to Samford earlier in the week (as 7-point favorites) dropped the Mocs out of first place in the SoCon, leaving them a half game back of Furman. They look to bounce back Saturday, at home, against third place Mercer. We’ve seen six straight games from Chattanooga with 71-78 points. That’s very consistent. They also come into Saturday averaging 80.0 PPG at home for the year. Leading scorer Malachi Smith struggled in the last game, but should bounce back here. Mercer has been far less consistent this year, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. The Bears are third worst in the SoCon in terms of defensive efficiency, ranking 276th nationally. That’s not good. I expect the Bears to really struggle to defend here against a team that’s making 39% of its three-point attempts at home. I realize that the last seven Mercer games have all stayed Under the total, but 12 of the previous 14 meetings with Chattanooga have gone Over. Smith is averaging 20.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game this season. Off a loss, he averages 26.5 points and 8.5 rebounds. In the loss to Samford, Smith only attempted ONE free throw and was 4 of 12 from the field. So, as I said earlier, look for a bounce back game from him this afternoon. Mercer has size issues and going against a Mocs team that has an excellent offensive rebounding percentage likely means trouble. I do think Mercer will put up a surprising number of points here as well. 8* Over Mercer/Chattanooga |
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02-04-22 | Bulls v. Pacers UNDER 231.5 | Top | 122-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
10* Under Bulls/Pacers (7:10 ET): So the Bulls have now gone Over in four straight games. The Pacers have gone Over in six straight games. Looking at these recent results, for both teams, there’s a clear surge in the number of points being scored & allowed vs. season averages. For a frame of reference, Bulls’ games have averaged 221.1 total points this season. That number has jumped to 240.6 over the L5 games! For Indiana, the season average is 220 pts on the nose, but 243.8 over the L5 games. Now I played against Chicago last night and that proved to be a winning move. They lost 127-120 up in Toronto, in OT, a brutal result as the Raptors tied the game with 0.7 seconds remaining in regulation. The Bulls did trail most of the game (by as many as 11). Obviously, the game going to overtime skews the final point total. The previous four games all saw Chicago shoot 51% or better from the floor. Can’t see that continuing. They were down to 47.8% last night. Zach LaVine, the team’s second leading scorer (24.7 PPG) could be rested tonight. The team is already without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. The Pacers also have a number of players out, including Sabonis, Brogden, Turner, Bitadze and Brissett. So I’m not sure where the points will come from tonight. As of this writing, this is the highest O/U line for any Indiana game this season. They are 3-0 Under against the Bulls so far in 2021-22 and none of the three games saw more than 218 total points scored. This number is an overreaction to the abnormal amount of scoring we’ve seen from both teams recently. 10* Under Bulls/Pacers |
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02-04-22 | Fairfield v. Monmouth OVER 133.5 | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
10* Over Fairfield/Monmouth (7:00 ET): These teams met two weeks ago and it was a low-scoring game. Monmouth won 61-58, just barely covering the 2.5-point spread. Examining the Hawks’ results this season, one thing that jumps out to me is they score a lot more at home. They are averaging 76.6 PPG in their own gym, as opposed to just 67.3 elsewhere. The disparity became even more pronounced in January when they failed to top 62 (points) in any of their three road games. But they scored 85, 78, 72 and 69 in the four at home. With this being a home game, I expect Monmouth to put up a lot more points than they did the first time against Fairfield. The team’s last three games, all here at home, have been remarkably consistent with 140, 139 and 139 total points scored. This is among the lowest O/U lines set for one of their games all season. Only the last one, a 70-69 loss to Niagara (as 8-point chalk) was lower. That game went Over despite the Hawks only shooting 30% from the field. They’ll certainly shoot better than that tonight. Fairfield’s home vs. road splits are pretty consistent. Their games average almost 140 PPG, no matter where they’re at. The Stags’ two games since the loss to Monmouth both went Over as they beat Marist 69-66 and Rider 76-65 on the road. Of their last five games, the only one that would NOT have gone Over the current O/U line for this game was the one against Monmouth. The total for that game closed at 139.5, so I see value here. 10* Over Fairfield/Monmouth |
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02-04-22 | Levante v. Getafe CF UNDER 2 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
6* Under Levante/Getafe (3:00 ET): So, as I’ve said before, Levante has been incredibly unlucky when it comes to conceding goals this La Liga season. That has played a significant factor in them being at the “foot of the table” (in last place) and facing a very serious chance of relegation for next season. The Frogs have allowed a league-high 43 goals this season. However, their number of xGA (expected goals allowed) is just 31.83. Per Understat, no side in any of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues has exceeded its xGA by a wider margin. Their last time out, I went with the Under on Levante and cashed that bet. They lost 2-0 to Cadiz. Now let’s point out how Levante has also scored the fifth fewest number of goals in La Liga this campaign. Losing to Cadiz was a real killer for their survival hopes as the Frogs now sit nine points adrift from where they need to be. This is another seemingly winnable fixture, but Getafe will also be keen on getting the full three (points) here, which would move them seven points clear of the relegation zone. Fortunate for Levante is the fact Getafe is one of the four La Liga sides to have scored a fewer number of goals this season. The Deep Blue Ones have just 17 goals in their 22 league matches. Only Alaves has scored a lower number. With two of the bottom five scoring sides in the league facing off and Levante likely to start conceding less, Under is an easy call again here. Four of Getafe’s last five fixtures have ended up with one or zero goals scored. That includes a 0-0 draw with Real Sociedad before the Winter Break. 6* Levante/Getafe |
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02-03-22 | Heat v. Spurs UNDER 220 | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
8* Under Heat/Spurs (8:40 ET): Miami has now gone Over in six consecutive contests following Tuesday’s 110-106 loss up in Toronto. This feels like a streak that’s “due” to end and I also can’t see San Antonio shooting as well as it did (55%) two nights ago vs. Golden State. Therefore, it certainly seems as if we’ve got the “perfect recipe” for an Under tonight in the Alamo. The Spurs must be kicking themselves after letting ANOTHER lead slip away against the Warriors. Few teams have been less “clutch” than SA this season and what was especially painful about blowing the 17-point lead and losing Tuesday was that the Warriors were without all their star players (No Curry, Thompson, Green or Wiggins). And they (SA) shot 55% from the floor and made 16 threes! The problem was letting the Dubs sink 20 threes. I just see things being much more low-scoring here tonight. Part of that is Miami not being at full-strength either. The Heat have lost three in a row and averaged only 99 PPG in the last two. Kyle Lowry is expected to miss his 10th straight game tonight and Jimmy Butler is questionable as well. For the Spurs, Dejounte Murray (best player) is listed as questionable. So some key contributors MAY be sitting this one out. Regardless, look for the Heat to get back to playing defense and their parade of Overs to end. 8* Under Heat/Spurs |
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02-02-22 | Magic v. Pacers UNDER 224 | Top | 119-118 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
8* Under Magic/Pacers (7:10 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for Orlando, who were 126-115 losers in Chicago Tuesday night. They shot well, particularly in the first half where they made 56% of their field goal attempts. The problem is the Magic couldn’t play any defense; they allowed the Bulls to score 103 points in the first three quarters, so even a late fourth quarter rally proved futile. Defending Indiana should be a bit easier. As many as seven Pacers could sit this one out. Five definitely will, including leading scorer and rebounder Domantas Sabonis, who entered health and safety protocol on Monday. In addition to Sabonis, Indiana is without Brogdon, McConnell, Turner and Warren. They did score 122 pts in a win over the Clippers on Monday, but I just can’t see that happening again with all these notable absences. Monday saw the Pacers shoot 52.6% from the floor, their highest percentage in any game in over three weeks. They were also 14 of 29 from three-point range, also unlikely to be repeated here. Indiana, like Orlando, would like to see its defensive numbers start to improve. That should happen tonight. Over their last five games, all of which have gone Over, the Pacers have given up 126.6 PPG. This is well above their season average of 110.8 PPG. Tonight, they face a Magic team that has been scoring at a 112.6 PPG clip its last five contests, but that is well above their own season average of 102.8 PPG. For the year, Orlando is 28th in the league in scoring. The Under is 6-1 the last seven times they’ve played without rest and they average just 98.1 PPG in that situation. 8* Under Magic/Pacers |
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02-01-22 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 231.5 | Top | 115-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
10* Under Nuggets/T’Wolves (8:10 ET): Both of these teams have been scoring a lot more than usual of late. The result of that has been plenty of Overs. Denver is 9-1 Over in its last 10 games, the lone Under taking place in a matchup with the offensively inept Pistons. Minnesota has seen the Over hit in seven of its last eight games. But I can’t see the Nuggets shooting 60% from the field again, as they did in Sunday’s 136-100 beatdown of Milwaukee. Nor can I see the T’wolves shooting 55% again, as they did in their own blowout victory on Sunday (126-106 over Utah). Time for an Under here. When these teams met in Denver back in December, the final score ended up being a 124-107 road win for the Timberwolves. They shot 51.1% from the floor and made 23 three-pointers. Don’t see that being duplicated tonight. Interesting to note that the O/U line is several points higher than it was for the last meeting (224.5). This despite Nikola Jokic and Minnesota’s third leading scorer, D’Angelo Russell, both being listed as questionable for tonight’s game. The key for the T’wolves tonight could be their defense. They are simply much more stingy at home where they allow only 104.8 PPG as opposed to 116.0 on the road. That’s a massive difference. With some key players questionable and both teams likely to cool off from behind the arc, look for this one to stay Under the total. The Under is also 8-3 in Denver’s last 11 road games. 10* Under Nuggets/T’Wolves |
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01-30-22 | Colorado v. Washington State OVER 132 | Top | 43-70 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
8* Over Colorado/Washington State (10:00 ET): Wazzu started out the season by going Over the total in each of the first five games. Since then, the Under is 11-2 their last 13 games. They’ve gone Over in just one game during the month of January, but that was against tonight’s opponent, Colorado. That game ended up as an 83-79 final, in favor of the Buffaloes. It was the first game for CU in nearly three weeks because of COVID-19. Washington State had been off for two weeks for the same reason. The Cougars didn’t even have Noah Williams in that first meeting and he is the team’s second leading scorer. Shooting was not particularly outrageous from either side. So, yes, I think the teams are capable of going Over another low total on Sunday night. Eventually, Washington State’s shooting in conference play is bound to improve. They are making only 39% of their FG attempts against Pac 12 opposition, which is really bad. The shots have to start falling, sooner or later, and at least they’re at home tonight where they scored 71 points last time out (despite shooting only 36.9%) in a win over Utah. Wazzu won that last game, rather handily, as it also held the Utes to 54 points on 39.1% shooting. Defense has not been a problem for the Cougs, but when they last faced CU, they allowed 51% shooting. Colorado shot a dreadful 34% overall in Thursday’s 60-58 loss to Washington. They were rather lucky the game ended up so close as UW was just 4 of 17 from three-point range and 8 of 17 from the free throw line. I think we’ll be getting some points tonight! 8* Over Colorado/Washington State |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
9* Under Bengals/Chiefs (3:00 ET): These teams met in the regular season and it quickly turned into a shootout with the Bengals eventually coming out on top, 34-31 as 3.5-point underdogs. But that game took place in Cincinnati. I don’t see these young upstarts beating KC twice in the same season. There’s only been one instance of Chiefs QB Mahomes losing twice to the same team in the same season. I also don’t think this game will be as high scoring as the original. The O/U line closed at 51.0 for the regular season meetings. It’s predictable that the number for the rematch is a few points higher and that the majority of bettors are on the Over. Especially since the last seven Chiefs’ games have all gone Over. But, every Bengals game since the win over the Chiefs has gone Under the total. They could barely muster 300 total yards against the Raiders in the Wild Card Game and the offense frequently fizzled against a defense that was last in red zone efficiency. Last week, the Bengals managed only one touchdown in the win over the Titans and got 10 points off turnovers, including the GW FG. On the bright side, one of two touchdowns allowed by the Bengals’ defense last week came on a short field. Stopping Mahomes will obviously be more difficult. But - with just two minutes left in regulation against the Bills - the Chiefs had “only” 26 points. The Cincinnati defense is only allowing 16.9 PPG on the road, which is why the Under is 7-2 in those games (just 42.3 PPG total scored). The Chiefs allow only 19.5 PPG at home where the total number of PPG scored is 48.5. I see value with the Under here. 9* Under Bengals/Chiefs |
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01-29-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 213.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
10* Over Celtics/Pelicans (7:05 ET): Both of these teams played last night and did not shoot the ball well. So they’re also both coming off a loss. Boston went down by a score of 108-92 at the hands of Atlanta. The Celtics missed 12 of their first 13 three-point attempts in the game and finished 9 of 34 from behind the arc. They also missed 12 of their first 16 field goal attempts in the fourth quarter. New Orleans was a horrendous 5 of 34 from three-point range, and 38.9% overall, in its 116-105 home loss to Denver on Friday. So what I am saying, right off the bat here, is that you should anticipate BOTH teams shooting better tonight than they did on Friday. Boston had just scored 128 in its last win and that was without even shooting all that well. It’s a three-game Under run coming into tonight, but that’s also because the Celtics’ two previous opponents (before Atlanta) were just horrific shooting the ball. I don’t think they can count on holding New Orleans to 35% or less as they did to Washington and Sacramento. New Orleans’ last three games have all gone Over with them allowing 113, 117 and 116 points. For the year, they are giving up 110 PPG. So there’s more reason to expect Boston is going to have a bounce back game offensively. As for the Pelicans, they could be getting at least one of their top two scorers back. Regardless, these teams will combine to shoot MUCH better than 31% from three-point range, which was the number they were at when they met in Boston earlier this month. 10* Over Celtics/Pelicans |
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01-28-22 | Knicks v. Bucks OVER 217 | Top | 108-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Knicks/Bucks (10:10 ET): Milwaukee had a three-game win streak halted two nights ago in Cleveland. They lost 115-99 while shooting just 28% from three-point range (9 of 32). Part of the reason for that poor shooting was because the Bucks were without two of their top shooters, Grayson Allen and Wesley Matthews. Both could be back in the lineup Friday (Allen definitely will) when the team returns home to face the Knicks. The Bucks have won three straight at home and two of the wins saw them score 126 and 133 points. They are averaging 112.4 PPG at home for the season. So expect a return to form, at least on offense, for Milwaukee here tonight. As for the Knicks, they’ve struggled with their shooting recently, failing to make more than 43% from the field in any of the last four games. Offense has been a struggle all season for New York, but I expect this game will go a little better than most of the recent ones, and that’s because Milwaukee has allowed 114+ points in four of its last five games. This is the fourth head to head meeting between these two teams this season. The first three all stayed Under, but were very close to the number as the games finished with 211, 212 and 209 total points. We haven’t seen good shooting from either side in any of the prior meetings, which is odd. Looking at this number, all we basically need is the Bucks (111.8 PPG) and Knicks (103.8) to hit their season averages. I don’t think that’s asking for too much? The Over is 9-3 L12 times the Bucks have been home favorites. 10* Over Knicks/Bucks |
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01-27-22 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska UNDER 145.5 | Top | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
8* Under Wisconsin/Nebraska (5:00 ET): Well, taking the Under the last time Wisconsin took the floor turned out to be the incorrect play. But, if at first you don’t succeed, then try again. Tonight’s matchup seems far more conducive to an Under, even though the opponent (Nebraska) is not so hot defensively. I think the big key is that Nebraska - unlike Michigan State - is simply incapable of scoring 86 points. That’s how many Michigan State put up on the Badgers last Friday. This will be Nebraska’s first game in 10 days due to COVID. This matchup was originally set to take place on Tuesday, but the Cornhuskers were dealing with health and safety protocol. Last Saturday’s game vs. Ohio State also had to be postponed. So I would not be surprised if it’s a “sluggish” start from the home team in this one. It’s also unlikely that the Cornhuskers will EVER get hot from three-point range tonight; they are sinking only 29.8% of their 3PA for the season! It’s been a tough season in Lincoln. The key here is Nebraska keeping Wisconsin’s offense in check. Fortunately, the Badgers are second in the country at turning the ball over. I don’t think that’s going to lead to an abundance of points for Nebraska, but it will lead to plenty of empty possessions by the road team. The Cornhuskers are second in the Big 10 at forcing turnovers. Wisconsin played without its third leading scorer in the last game and got just seven bench points. Their Over streak, now at eight games, is due to end. 8* Under Wisconsin/Nebraska |
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01-25-22 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 210 | Top | 92-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Mavericks/Warriors (10:05 ET): While both of these teams have been very stout defensively, and the Warriors have really been that way all season, I’ve got to think tonight’s game on ESPN goes Over the oddsmakers’ total. For one, Dallas is on a preposterous run of Unders (eight straight, 13 of last 14 games) right now. Also, I think that Golden State, Steph Curry specifically, is due to break out of a shooting slump. This could end up as the lowest O/U line for any GSW game since 12/18, which went Over. Now there is no denying how good Dallas has been defensively during this 13-1 Under stretch. The most points they’ve given up in any of those games is 109 and only three teams have been able to top 100. In today’s NBA, that’s quite shocking. But eventually, you’re going to have a bad game defensively. The fact the Warriors have been struggling to make shots over the same stretch the Mavs have turned it on defensively tells me a “perfect storm” may be in order for tonight’s game. Even if both Klay Thompson and Draymond Green both sit out, the Warriors will top the 94 points they scored in the win over the Jazz Sunday. Steph Curry has been in a mini-slump, including 13 points on 5 of 20 shooting last game. He can still go off any night though. The Warriors scored just 11 points in the 4Q Sunday. They were on track for well over 100 before that. Holding the Jazz to 38% shooting was what allowed them to hold on for the two-point win. Dallas will shoot better than recent Warriors’ opponents have. 10* Over Mavericks/Warriors |
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01-25-22 | Nuggets v. Pistons UNDER 218.5 | Top | 110-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
8* Under Nuggets/Pistons (7:10 ET): These teams just met Sunday with Denver winning 117-111. It came down to the final minute, which had to be less than thrilling if you’re a Nuggets’ fan as they led by as many as 16 in the fourth quarter. What should have Denver “breathing easier” for tonight’s rematch is that it is HIGHLY unlikely the Pistons will shoot 56% again from the floor. The Pistons are last in the East in scoring (102.0 PPG) and shoot just 42.1% for the year. Only OKC is worse offensively. Though they were able to rally and tie the game up in the final minute, what killed the Pistons on Sunday were 22 turnovers, which were converted into 28 points by the Nuggets. They may not shoot as well tonight, but the home team should play a “cleaner” game. Defensively, they should be much better as well. While Detroit is allowing 115.1 PPG on the road, it’s a much more reasonable number (107.5) at home. The Under has also hit in the team’s last eight Tuesday games. Denver is on a six-game Over run, where scoring has been way up from normal. They’ve allowed four straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the floor. That can’t keep happening. As detailed above, this is an ideal opponent for the defensive woes to cease. I will not be the least bit surprised if the Nuggets win a close, low-scoring game here. 8* Under Nuggets/Pistons |
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01-25-22 | Hornets v. Raptors OVER 221.5 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
8* Over Hornets/Raptors (7:10 ET): Both teams lost on Sunday, due in no small part to bad shooting. Charlotte, playing without Gordon Hayward, fell 113-91 at home to Atlanta. That was only the second loss in the last nine games for the Hornets though. I expect them to bounce back offensively in this one, especially after going a dreadful 4 of 36 from three-point range vs. the Hawks. They missed 18 straight attempts from behind the arc and finished the game at just 39.1% overall from the field. Toronto played a horrible game against Portland, falling behind by 34 in the first half. This was at home! While I am predicting Charlotte to bounce back offensively in this one, the same can be said for the Raptors. They were held under 40% shooting by the Blazers. Key to their projected improvement here is the fact Charlotte is dead last in the Eastern Conference in scoring defense, giving up 114.2 points per game. The Hornets’ defense has improved some over the last month, but the YTD numbers speak for themselves. The total was very high (233.5) for the Charlotte-Atlanta game Sunday. So it looks like we’re getting some solid value with this number. The Under is 7-1 in Charlotte’s last eight games and 12-3 L15 (4-0 L4). To me, that says things are “due” to go the “other way.” Same for Toronto, who had gone Under in seven straight before Sunday’s Over vs. Portland. Prior to the seven-game Under run, the Raptors had gone Over in 10 straight games. They are streaky when it comes to totals! 8* Over Hornets/Raptor |
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01-24-22 | Towson v. Delaware UNDER 140.5 | Top | 69-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
10* Under Towson/Delaware (7:00 ET): Delaware finds itself on a five-game Over streak. They’ve shot 50% or better and scored 80+ points in four of the games. But they probably can’t keep that up. Those numbers aren’t demonstrably higher than what the Blue Hens are doing at the offensive end for the balance of the year. But it’s really hard to keep up an offensive stretch like that for a long period of time. Plus, Delaware surprisingly shoots WORSE at home (where they are tonight), making only 44.9% of their total FG attempts. Tonight, the Blue Hens run into a Towson team that can play some defense. The visiting Tigers are holding the opposition to 40.4% shooting for the year and 65.4 PPG. They did just give up 81 in a loss to UNC Wilmington over the weekend, but that game went to overtime and was tied 65-65 at the end of regulation. In their previous game, Towson had held Charleston to just 32.9% shooting. None of the Tigers’ previous nine opponents have scored 70 in regulation. Delaware can play some defense too; they are allowing just 40.3% shooting at home this year. Neither of these two teams play incredibly fast. Both are outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo. Towson is actually 320th in adjusted tempo, which means their preferred pace is VERY slow. With both teams playing their second game in three days, I look for the Under to cash in this Monday CAA matchup. This is a high O/U line for Towson, who is 6-2 Under when the total is 140 to 149.5. 10* Under Towson/Delaware |
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01-23-22 | Grizzlies v. Mavs OVER 217.5 | Top | 91-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
10* Over Grizzlies/Mavericks (7:35 ET): While the trends are firmly on the side of the Under here, I’m looking to “buck” convention as two of the hottest teams in the league should find a way to go Over here. Yes, Dallas has gone Under in seven straight games, the last five of which have been here at home. That brings the O/U record for the year to 17-5 Under at home, which is pretty crazy. All three previous Grizzlies-Mavs meetings this year have gone Under. But expect this one to go differently. The last time these teams met was earlier this month and the Mavs surprisingly ran away with a 112-85 road win. That’s just one of two games that Memphis has lost since Christmas. Part of the reason the Grizzlies lost is because they shot just 38.2% from the floor, including 22% from behind the arc. They actually led 55-50 at the half but were held to only 30 points over the final two quarters! Even though it ended up being a blowout victory, even Dallas didn’t shoot well from three in that game. The two teams combined to go 15 of 63 from behind the arc! Expect much more precise three-point shooting in this one. Memphis is a team that averages 112.1 PPG and they just scored 122 in their last game, despite being without their second and third leading scorers. Ja Morant went for 38. Dallas is off a disappointing 109-101 loss to Phoenix where they scored only 19 points in the 4Q. Luka Doncic expects to play Sunday after leaving the last game with a neck injury. That’s key. 10* Over Grizzlies/Mavericks |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 20 m | Show |
8* Under Bills/Chiefs (6:30 ET): The Bills offense played nearly perfect football vs. New England in the Wild Card Round. Against a top five defense (#2 in scoring), they scored touchdowns on all seven drives that did not end in a kneel down. Before backup QB Mitchell Trubisky came in for “kneel down duty” at the end of the game, Buffalo had 480 total yards on 51 plays. I really respect this offense, but repeating last week’s performance will be impossible. Kansas City dominated in the Wild Card Round as well. Don’t be fooled by them allowing 21 points either. One of Pittsburgh’s touchdowns was from the defense. In the first half, the Steelers’ offense never crossed midfield and had just 40 yards on 26 plays (excluding kneel down). That was reminiscent of the stretch in the regular season when the Chiefs allowed 17 points or less in six straight games. At home this season, they are allowing just 17.9 PPG. The Chiefs will NOT keep the Bills in check like they did the Steelers, but I do see KC’s six-game Over run coming to an end here. These teams met in the regular season, here at Arrowhead, with the Bills winning 38-20. That included a defensive touchdown by the Bills. Take that away and the game would have stayed Under. Note the Chiefs only scored 20 points. Buffalo has the league’s top scoring defense at 17.0 PPG allowed and even on the road they allow only 17.5. This game will be lower-scoring than expected. I know that it seems risky, but take the Under. 8* Under Bills/Chiefs |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 51 m | Show |
8* Under Rams/Buccaneers (3:00 ET): So these teams met in the regular season. The Rams won 34-24, but that was at home. It was a turnover free game (for both sides) where the Rams - at one point - scored on six consecutive drives. The Bucs didn’t exactly have problems moving the football either, but they missed a field goal and turned it over on downs in the fourth quarter. For a variety of reasons, I don’t see the rematch being nearly as high scoring. Take the Under. The Rams were 34-11 winners over Arizona in the Wild Card Round. That included a defensive TD (thanks to an atrocious decision by Kyler Murray), which pretty much put the game away. While Matt Stafford getting his first career playoff win grabbed the headlines, don’t discount what the Rams’ defense did to the Cardinals. They held them to just 183 total yards (just 3.4 yards per play), most of that coming when the game was already well in hand. Holding Tom Brady and company in check like that might seem unrealistic. But the Rams’ defense has now had seven straight games of holding opponents to 24 points or less in regulation. That was the number they held TB to back in Week 3. The Bucs were 31-15 winners on Wild Card Weekend, easily dispatching of the Eagles. But while the final result was never in doubt, take note that TB was actually outgained on a per play basis. Some of that has to do with all of the points and most of the yards allowed by the defense coming in the 4Q. Going into the fourth, Philly was scoreless and had less than 200 total yards. But still, Brady and the offense gained just 4.5 yards per play and clearly benefited from a muffed punt that led to a touchdown. 8* Under Rams/Buccaneers |