|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|08-18-16||Astros +108 v. Orioles||5-13||Loss||-100||20 h 23 m||Show|
Lets face it the prime reason the Orioles are favored in this spot Thursday has more to do with their home field advantage versus their play.
They've struggled as of late as their dynamic hitters have hit a wall combined with instability amongst the pitching staff.
Houston on the other hand has quietly shifted themselves within striking distance of the wild card race.
This series could spark a rally for them and I believe they can ride young pitcher Musgrove's arm to victory here.
Baltimore's Kevin Gausman has had more than a string of bad luck this season on the mound. Expect the same recipe of early success that translates to a poor inning in the fifth or sixth inning.
Houston's bats will get the job done in the latter innings.
|08-17-16||Twins -102 v. Braves||10-3||Win||100||18 h 41 m||Show|
After catching waves with profiled wins against Cleveland, the Twins faltered a bit before getting back on track yesterday against the Braves.
The same pattern we saw from the Twins ten days ago is now the trap Braves bettors are lying in.
Atlanta had a great series against the Nationals, with a lineup that caught fire.
Pitcher Mike Foltynewicz has also uplifted his performance with consecutive solid outings to boost himself above .500 at 6-5.
Both Performances were also against stout lineups in the Cardinals and Nationals.
Third time will not be a charm for Folty. Expect the Twins lineup to give him problems and for the Twins to win another in Atlanta.
|08-17-16||Nationals v. Rockies +157||10-12||Win||157||14 h 30 m||Show|
Around ten days ago there was not much game separation between the Rockies and Nationals in the win/loss column.
The Rockies of course were on an incredible win streak that featured eleven of thirteen wins. Since, they've tails pinned losing ten of their last thirteen.
Attraction on their side has obviously waned as they appear headed for the sub .500 mark on the season.
Yet, there are enough pieces in place that the Rockies organization feels more than comfortable finishing out this season strong. Challenging series such as this one against the Nationals build forward growth into next season.
Colorado showcased better bats against Max Scherzer, before the bullpen caved, and attacked the Nationals bullpen for the win on Tuesday.
Stephen Strasburg is having a magnificent season and many expect an easy bounce back win after consecutive losses.
Yet, like many pitchers Strasburg is not razor sharp at Coors Field. In 2014, he gave up a season high nine hits and three first inning runs.
Off of consecutive losses I expect a shaky Strasburg mentally in a tough environment.
Grab the value here on the Rockies.
|08-16-16||Red Sox +100 v. Orioles||5-3||Win||100||16 h 19 m||Show|
After surging past the Indians last night the Red Sox have suddenly won four consecutive games.
Furthermore, with a win on Tuesday they'll tie the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East division.
Baltimore is coming off a ten game road stretch and experienced the benefit of an off day on Monday.
They're also awfully familiar with Tuesday's starter in Eduardo Rodriguez. The young pitcher has pitched five times against the Orioles in the last two seasons. It's been a mixed bag of results for Rodriguez who has fared three quality starts versus two atrocious outings.
Yet, I believe the young 23 year old will be able to ride his team's confidence and will to win on Tuesday.
Grab the value here on the streaking Red Sox.
|08-15-16||Mariners -128 v. Angels||3-2||Win||100||19 h 58 m||Show|
Line value has been shifty with the Mariners and Felix Hernandez. The team has corrected it's bullpen woes and has done just enough at the plate to put themselves in a running position for a wild card.
The Angels on the other hand have been a mess throughout most of the season with their starting pitching. They'll hope Ricky Nolasco can stem the Mariners lineup Monday night.
For me though the value lies with the Mariners and ace Felix Hernandez. Obviously Hernandez is transitioning his form as his dominant form seems to be gone.
Yet, he's shown as of late an ability to tone down his walks as well as show better command.
In his last three starts he has thrown twenty two strikeouts.
With as poor as the Angels are hitting the ball, this should be a solid spot to see that continue.
Grab the Mariners.
|08-15-16||Marlins v. Reds +123||6-3||Loss||-100||16 h 2 m||Show|
Monday, the Reds battle the Marlins on their home field as they look to halt the playoff hopes of Miami.
Starting for the Reds will be Brandon Finnegan opposed the Marlins David Phelps.
Phelps has been solid in consecutive starts as he fills in for Colin Rea. He delivered four innings of no earned runs against the Rockies and followed that up with five strong innings against the Giants.
The Reds erratic bullpen and Miami's potent lineup is why we see the money line at it's current value.
Instead though I believe the Reds should be favored. They've been a different team as of late and arguably have the better lineup.
Don't be surprised to see Phelps chased out of this one early and put unexpected pressure on a Marlins bullpen that lacks the ability to withstand five innings.
Grab the Reds.
|08-14-16||Cardinals +164 v. Cubs||6-4||Win||164||5 h 59 m||Show|
St. Louis Cardinals
After ending the Cubs nine-game win streak Saturday, we've got another steep spread here tonight on the side of the Cubs.
On the mound is consistent veteran Jon Lackey opposed Cardinals starter Mike Leake.
Leake has been spotty as a starter with a 4.79 ERA but somehow has managed a near .500 record.
He'll need his sharp game to slow down the potent bats of the Cubs.
Yet, I see this as too high of a money line on the Cubs side based on their recent stretch. As we've seen all year, this Cubs team is streaky.
The bullpen was extended last night, and I like the Cardinals to show their veteran moxie here against the young Cubs.
Play the Cards.
|08-13-16||Rockies -109 v. Phillies||3-6||Loss||-109||11 h 12 m||Show|
Friday, the Rockies fell victim to the Phillies in a poor way. Jon Gray was rocked and the bullpen did not do much to resolve the beat down from getting worse.
It provided a nice payout for Phillies backers, and the attraction seems to be there again on Saturday.
Jared Eickoff is on the mound opposed Tyler Anderson.
Eickoff has settled in nicely over his last five starts after a poor July 9th start against this very Rockies team.
While many may believe Eickoff should be better at home versus Colorado, I find it hard to believe to think that route.
Colorado's still plated six runs Friday and will be ready to attack Eickhoff early and often Saturday.
This is a line value steal to capitalize on the Rockies.
|08-12-16||Reds +105 v. Brewers||7-4||Win||105||12 h 15 m||Show|
The Reds value has slipped a bit. After winning six consecutive series they've faltered in their last two.
They'll look to get back on track against a Brewers team that has not hit a bump after trading away Lucroy, Jeffryes, and Will Smith.
They'll call upon veteran Jimmy Nelson who has lost four starts in a row against the Reds Homer Bailey.
Bailey got the start last week against the Pirates and showed obvious rust.
Yet, he showed enough to like him in this spot against a Brewers offense that has peaked as of late.
I also like the fact that the Reds may have cooled at the plate, but they had more than their fair share of scoring opportunities.
Grab them to convert with RISP Friday as Nelson falters again on the hill.
|08-11-16||White Sox +149 v. Royals||1-2||Loss||-100||12 h 16 m||Show|
Chicago White Sox
We've seen back to back extra inning affairs between the Royals and White Sox.
Will we see another on Thursday?
Starting for the Royals is Danny Duffy opposed White Sox starter Miguel Gonzalez.
Duffy's turn around season opposed Gonzalez's struggles is as far on the spectrum as you can get.
Duffy has an 8-1 record with a 2.97 ERA while Gonzalez has an ERA of 4.09 and a 2-6 record.
After seeing the White Sox struggle to manufacture runs against Ian Kennedy and Edinson Volquez (a half inning of a run barrage), the White Sox would seem to be in trouble against Duffy.
Yet, I see the White Sox snapping Duffy's incredible stride here.
Kansas City's extra inning win coupled with Duffy's outstanding run are potent combinations for a betting letdown.
Grab the Sox here to cash as underdogs.
|08-11-16||Astros v. Twins +110||15-7||Loss||-100||11 h 11 m||Show|
Game one of two between the Twins and Astros takes place at 1:10 EST.
The Astros will send Doug Fister to the mound opposed Twins young starter Jose Berrios.
The underlying jump out stat here is Berrios inflated ERA of 8.31. Berrios had his issues early on in the season before being called back up from the minors August first.
He's coming off a loss against the Rays in which he allowed two home runs.
The potent bats of the Astros figure to cause Berrios more problems on Thursday.
Yet, it's safe to say this Astros team is in more than a slump. They're offense has tailspinned as they're struggling to find sustainability.
Berrios may not be major league caliber just yet, but the Twins offense is more than capable of leading us to victory here.
Grab the Twins.
|08-09-16||White Sox -132 v. Royals||7-5||Win||100||5 h 14 m||Show|
Chicago White Sox
Turmoil amongst Chris Sale and the White Sox has been a back and forth affair.
He had the issue in spring training with the mishandling of a former player, and obviously we all know his recent dilemma with the White Sox throwbacks.
In the end the White Sox kept Sale and I expect to get the return to form Sale today.
Kansas City has regenerated a bit of value ATS after a horrid slump. They've settled in recently with Herrera handling closing duties and have mustered been run support with Lorenzo Cain/Salvy P back in the lineup.
Yet, it's hard not to ignore the major disappointment the Royals have been this season.
Look for the White Sox to capitalize as a road favorite and deliver the win.
|08-09-16||Diamondbacks v. Mets -125||5-3||Loss||-125||4 h 9 m||Show|
In the NL East the division remains in a quandary. Have the Marlins and Nationals inability to push away from the Mets created an opportunity?
Maybe so. After a stretch that witnessed Familia break down in back to back save opportunities, starting pitching falter, and the lineup struggle with runs, things are finally trending upward for the Mets.
What better team to face to complete the about face than the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Diamondbacks have been far and away the worst team since All-Star break and it doesn't look as if things will get better anytime soon.
Greinke may be on the hill today but you can't ignore the treacherous efforts from the Diamondbacks bullpen combined with gaping holes at the plate.
Matz settles in here and the Mets continue to be the latest team to pound the scoreboard on the Diamondbacks.
|08-08-16||Giants v. Marlins -142||8-7||Loss||-142||14 h 54 m||Show|
Right now I'm seeing the Marlins fairly well for and against. We'll keep that recipe simple with Monday's play.
The Giants have misstepped a bit since the All-Star break and now are 63-48. Pressure is rising as they hope to hold off the Dodgers and Rockies.
On the mound Monday will be Johnny Cuetto who has been terrific on the season.
Yet, I like the momentum the Marlins are showing. Anybody can hit the ball in Coors Field but the Marlins hit the baseball in a variety of ways.
In game one they came back from the dead with four runs in the ninth, Saturday they showed run support in a blowout loss, and Sunday they won via a team effort of ten runs.
Facing Cuetto's arm may scare bettors away here but I believe the bats continue to flourish for the Marlins.
Jose Fernandez may not be his sharpest but we'll side with the Marlins to win this one at the plate Monday.
|08-07-16||Marlins +115 v. Rockies||10-7||Win||115||11 h 51 m||Show|
The Marlins have been losing a little bit of luster lately. They had a poor series against Chicago prior to facing the Rockies.
Two days ago in game one they had a tough time mustering a hit against Jorge De La Rosa before coming back to win against the Rockies bullpen.
Yesterday, they did manufacture six runs but lost via poor pitching as the Rockies plated twelve.
It's looking as if the Marlins trades for Colin Rea and Andrew Cashner may come back to haunt them.
Yet, what's different about this Marlins pitching staff from two seasons ago is their in-house talent is far superior.
Adam Conley gets the call Sunday and I expect him to have a bounce back effort for the Marlins staff after yesterday.
Slight value but we'll take the Marlins here.
|08-06-16||Reds +128 v. Pirates||3-5||Loss||-100||11 h 30 m||Show|
Pittsburgh won via a walk-off yesterday against the Reds to take the first game of the series.
Will that win halt the Reds road momentum?
Cincinnati had just come off an impressive series against the Cardinals, making it their sixth straight series they have won.
To get back into having a chance for a seventh straight winning series they'll rely upon Homer Bailey at pitcher.
Starting for the first time as a Pirate will be Ivan Nova.
Though the Pirates are a quality home team I don't believe you can discount the potent bats of the Reds currently, combined with sharp base running.
Nova has not shown to be starter worthy even though he has a 7-6 record on the year.
His whip is 1.36 and also has trouble with walks--averaging near four a game this season.
Look for the Reds to capitalize against Nova and even the series.
|08-05-16||Marlins -106 v. Rockies||5-3||Win||100||13 h 59 m||Show|
Friday, the Marlins travel to face the Colorado Rockies. They'll be looking to avenge a dreadful loss on Wednesday at the hands of the Cubs.
In the loss they caved allowing three runs in the ninth to blow a winnable game.
Problems have started to re-occur that the Marlins thought they had solved. The bullpen has waned, starting pitching, and hitting has been erratic.
That figures to be an issue on the road against Jorge De La Rosa and the red-hot Rockies correct?
Not this scenario. Although David Phelps was rocked last year in Colorado he responded sharply five days later for his best performance of 2015.
Look for the Marlins to play a complete game and stay in the second wild card position.
|08-05-16||Twins v. Rays -130||6-2||Loss||-130||11 h 28 m||Show|
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are another team that sent away talent before the trade deadline such as Steve Pearce and Matt Moore.
That hasn't stopped the Rays from getting timely runs as they did in yesterday's comeback win off of Brad Miller's eighth inning home run.
Friday, they'll try to keep the momentum in line against the rising value of the Minnesota Twins.
On the mound for the Twins will be veteran Ervin Santana opposed youth in the Rays Blake Snell.
Travel is a factor here as the Twins are coming off a series in which they scored double digit runs three times against the Indians, and allowed nine in yesterday's loss. That's extra field time that has to be calculated in to tonight's matchup.
Combined with the Rays confidence at the plate, look for the Rays bullpen to outlast the struggles of the Twins bullpen that held up surprisingly against the Indians.
|08-05-16||Indians v. Yankees -105||7-13||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
The Yankees had a hot potato subway series against the Mets.
Friday they'll take on the Cleveland Indians who had an even stranger series against the subpar Minnesota Twins.
Can Josh Tomlin shake off his last poor start against Michael Pineda?
Although the Yankees lineup traded away Carlos Beltran and important bullpen talent, they're under valued here Friday.
I'm not satisfied with the Indians response win yesterday against the Twins.
Their high runs total may calm bettors into taking the bait Friday against the Yankees.
Instead calmly take the Yankees who should take care of business at home Friday.
|08-04-16||Rangers +116 v. Orioles||5-3||Win||116||11 h 23 m||Show|
On the mound for the Orioles Thursday will be newly acquired pitcher Wade Miley from the Mariners.
He's delivered an above average year considering his past experiences with the Red Sox and Diamondbacks.
Will his fortune continue as an Oriole?
Thursday I don't believe so. Texas made some key moves of their own that did not work out to plan in Wednesday's loss, but I believe they'll get back on track here.
Baltimore's offense has been nothing to write home about, and I don't think Miley will be as sharp as the one-hit outing he had last start.
Grab the Rangers here.
|08-04-16||Giants -123 v. Phillies||3-2||Win||100||5 h 24 m||Show|
The Philadelphia Phillies have managed to win two consecutive games against the cream of the crop of the Giants staff.
They took down Madison Bumgarner on Tuesday and Johnny Cuetto yesterday.
So things should go according to plan with one of their quality pitchers in Vince Velasquez on the mound Thursday?
Not necessarily. The Giants have always made key trade acquisitions work to their favor. Acquiring Matt Moore from the Rays should prove dividends right away Thursday.
Both wins by the Phillies were great as they jumped out to a 6-0 lead Tuesday to barely protect it for the win, and yesterday came back from a 4-0 deficit in the 7th inning.
|08-03-16||A's +113 v. Angels||6-8||Loss||-100||20 h 19 m||Show|
A battle of .500 pitchers take the mound on Wednesday between the A's and Angels.
For the A's pitcher Kendall Graveman takes the mound and for the Angels Jered Weaver.
The Angels boast just a one game overall edge over the A's record wise with a 48-58 mark on the season.
Tonight will mark the eighth game on the A's current road trip as they hope to end a four game losing streak.
This should be a good spot for the A's lineup to attack the weakness of the Angels pitching staff that had a tough time putting away the A's last night.
The Angels have also been getting an inordinate amount of runs lately, scoring forty one runs over their last eight games. Keep in mind those games featured series against the Royals struggling rotation and Red Sox.
Look for Graveman to get the job done on Wednesday.
|08-02-16||Yankees v. Mets -120||1-7||Win||100||20 h 36 m||Show|
The Yankees cracked through in a big way to defeat the Mets in extra innings on Monday.
Timely hits were the story as the Yankees answered a Mets rally with a eighth inning tying one and eventual extra inning winner.
Yet, on Tuesday I believe value is back on the slightly favored Mets. Jacob DeGrom is coming off a poor outing against the Marlins followed up by an ugly shutout no-decision last week against the Rockies.
He's settled in and should be able to take advantage of a Yankees lineup with holes in it.
I'm also not convinced that Masahiro Tanaka is mentally over losing yet another start against the Astros last week.
Though it's tough to trust the Mets bats, we'll grab them here to do enough to pull out the win.
|08-02-16||Cardinals -155 v. Reds||5-7||Loss||-155||20 h 35 m||Show|
St. Louis is coming into yet another road series, in fact they're eighth game of the extended trip.
Over the weekend backers sustained a beat down loss 11-0 to the Marlins Saturday, followed by heart break hotel on Sunday as the bullpen lost the game in walk-off fashion.
With the Reds coming off their own seven game road trip, value may seem to be on them Tuesday.
After all they've won four straight series overall and have had quality production at the plate even with the loss of Jay Bruce.
Concern also lies with Adam Wainwright who has been over extended in four straight starts with an average of 111.75 pitches.
Yet the Reds staff is too vulnerable in this spot to handle the Cardinals for nine innings.
Grab the Cardinal here.
|08-01-16||Brewers v. Padres -107||3-7||Win||100||18 h 24 m||Show|
Sellers before the trade deadline were the San Diego Padres. They sent away two prime hitters for them this season in Melvin Upton Jr and Matt Kemp.
They also sent Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea to the Marlins in exchange for Monday's starter Jared Cosart and more.
Many would downgrade the Padres for the aggressive moves, but instead I see that they traded players that likely maxed out their abilities.
Cosart is a pitcher that has never had a steady diet of opportunity with Houston or Miami.
In a new environment I expect him to thrive on Monday against a Brewers team riding high in series against the Diamondbacks and Pirates.
Brewers Monday pitcher in Jimmy Nelson hasn't been top notch, and ranks third in the NL in walks with fifty five total.
Expect the Padres new lineup to be hungry to prove themselves along with Cosart. Take the value on the Padres.
|07-31-16||Red Sox -115 v. Angels||5-3||Win||100||8 h 22 m||Show|
What better time to gravitate towards the Boston Red Sox?
The parade of bad mouthing has piled on day by day lately as the Red Sox pitching woes and losses continue to mount.
Sunday, they'll lean to their knucklerballer ace in Steven Wright to try to rectify their slide against the improving Angels.
Tyler Skaggs gets the call and is coming off a sound three hit win in his first start last week.
Yet, I won't get carried away on the Angels side of things. Their lineup has shown the best contact I've seen all year and their abyss of pitching injuries has been masked during their four of six win stretch.
The value is on the Red Sox here who as a veteran team should step to the challenge of ending a road series before two more against Seattle and the LA Dodgers.
|07-30-16||Cardinals v. Marlins +106||0-11||Win||106||6 h 40 m||Show|
I nearly passed on the board for Saturday but will add the Miami Marlins.
Miami has been a team that we've had success for/against the throughout July.
After surging to gain the second NL wild card spot the Marlins are in a typical funk witnessed on contending teams in this time period.
Pitching has eroded and their lineup has struggled to bridge the gap offensively.
Yet I like what the Marlins have done by adding Colin Rea from the Padres who gets the start Saturday.
Typically we see teams respond at the plate as they feel the spark of what a new teammate can provide to them.
St. Louis on the other hand do not forget is coming off an away series against the Mets. Look for their bats to finally cool off and for the Marlins to get back in the win column.
|07-29-16||Cardinals +110 v. Marlins||11-6||Win||110||12 h 10 m||Show|
St. Louis Cardinals
The Marlins have are in the wild card chase thanks to above average pitching.
Run support from their offense has been wildly sporadic and is currently in an abysmal period.
They struggled to score against the Phillies, Mets, and still aren't over the hurdle as they lost game one yesterday to the Cardinals.
This type of stretch typically puts pressure on a pitching staff and we saw that yesterday with ace Jose Fernandez.
While Jose Urena may weather the storm I expect the Marlins bullpen to feel the heat Friday.
St. Louis has been scoring runs in bunches lately and they'll find a way to crack through for us here.
Grab the Cardinals Friday.
|07-29-16||Orioles +127 v. Blue Jays||5-6||Loss||-100||12 h 5 m||Show|
Baltimore is coming off a couple of head scratching losses, as they travel to Toronto.
On the mound will be Kevin Gausman who registered just his second win of the season in his last start against Cleveland.
Furthermore, the Orioles have two power hitters struggling at the plate. Chris Davis is just 5 for his last 37 while Mark Trumbo is in similar territory.
With Toronto showing some rejuvenated life at the plate this seems like a solid spot to back them.
Yet, I'll take the value on the Orioles who are a potent group with a couple of runs.
Look for them to jump start Friday and cash as a nice underdog payout.
|07-27-16||Yankees v. Astros -131||1-4||Win||100||18 h 24 m||Show|
Trade deadline moves can spark a seller to show they're not finished. The New York Yankees seem to have that mentality after Aroldis Chapman was shipped to the Cubs.
Even before the trade there were whispers and suddenly the Yankees have went from below .500 to having won eight of ten.
Still there is no strong reason to believe they'll continue this ascent. Their pitching has been above average lately and they've tacked on runs against weak bullpens.
Lance McCullers has the combination pitches to showcase the weakness of the Yankees lineup, and Masahiro Tanaka has had his woes against the Astros. He lost last years playoff game by serving up two home runs while giving up a season high six runs last year in the regular season.
This year he took a no decision in a respectable two earned run performance but that was the first game of a poor month of April for the Astros.
Grab the Astros on Wednesday.
|07-27-16||Cardinals v. Mets +125||5-4||Loss||-100||17 h 24 m||Show|
The Mets have been quiet at the trade deadline unlike a season ago. They believe they have what it takes to make a run at it and will look for Logan Verrett to improve on a 3-6 record.
He'll face a Cardinals team that lost in the night cap on Tuesday 3-1. On the mound for the Cardinals will be veteran Adam Wainwright.
Wainwright is one of those veteran pitchers that oddsmakers have been hard pressed to find his new game to game value.
The wins versus losses between Wainwright and Verrett would mark the line proper. Yet, I'm going to side with the Mets in this home stand scenario.
Wainwright is riding an abnormal improved stretch of July that has dropped his ERA back to the low-range of 4.09 from 5.04 on June 27th.
New York may lack power but they're a contact team. They'll draw hits off of Wainwright while Verrett will be able to lean on the Mets bullpen to notch us an underdog Wednesday win.
|07-26-16||Phillies v. Marlins -142||0-5||Win||100||20 h 43 m||Show|
No one could be happy amongst the Marlins organization with the blunders made late to lose a tight game by a four run margin.
For the second time in a week's period, Jeremy Hellickson got the best of the Marlins in impressive fashion.
He shut down the Marlins offense with one-hit baseball as the Marlins carried dead bats for two consecutive games. They also failed to score on Sunday in a 3-0 loss to the Mets.
Tuesday that should change as Jared Eickhoff takes the mound for the Phillies. From time to time we see a young arm at this stage of the season take a further beating, and I'm anticipating that here from Eickhoff.
He just has not been the same since early flashes in the April. The Marlins have to much intel on his struggles to let a third game slip away. Grab the Marlins.
|07-26-16||Mariners +104 v. Pirates||7-4||Win||104||20 h 38 m||Show|
On Covers Experts videos this past week myself and Patrick Everson discussed value on injuries.
Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez has had a mountain of struggles this season. He hasn't showcased his old self before the DL, during his rehab assignments, or last week in his first start back.
Yet, veterans of his caliber can dig deep and break out of a rut a moment's notice.
What better time for Felix than now against a Pittsburgh team that has been erratic at the plate all season.
Look for Felix to out duel Pittsburgh starter Francisco Liriano and for Seattle's veteran bats to support Felix the way they did in last week's 6-5 comeback win over the White Sox.
|07-25-16||Reds +137 v. Giants||7-5||Win||137||18 h 52 m||Show|
San Francisco travels back home off a poor road trip that featured seven of eight losses.
Monday, they hope to get back on track against the hapless Cincinnati Reds.
The Reds themselves are coming off a nine game home stand that has created a bit of skewed value for the Giants.
Veteran Jay Peavy will get the call opposed young Reds pitcher Andy Desclafani.
Desclafani has been on a tear going 5-0 overall since returning from the DL. Still, oddsmakers and bettors are buying the Giants return home and near double wins to losses than the Reds.
Yet, even though Desclafani's allowing a lot of hits he has showcased craftiness to play keep away on the scoreboard when necessary.
|07-24-16||Phillies v. Pirates -150||4-5||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
Pirates pitcher Jameson Taillon escaped a nasty comeback hit in his last outing against the Brewers.
In the start he pitched six solid innings but did not get the win as the Pirates won 3-2 late.
Yet, I like what I've seen from Tailon lately who has seen his value rise dramatically from being a slight underdog on the road against the Mariners two starts ago.
Philadelphia has shown immense problems with their bullpen and vast inconsistencies at the plate with a young group of starters.
Sunday, take the Pirates to showcase their veteran team against the young Phillies.
|07-22-16||Giants v. Yankees -103||2-3||Win||100||8 h 33 m||Show|
The Yankees have got themselves a bit of confidence winning four of their last five games that has them above .500 at 48-47.
Yet rumors are rampant that the Yankees will look at shaking up their best value in their bullpen before the trade deadline.
On the opposite side of things the Giants are on a five game road losing streak in which their pitching has struggled. Their staff has given up a combined thirty one runs in that stretch including eleven to the Red Sox in their latest loss.
Expect the Yankees to receive continued life at the plate and to outlast the Giants in a close one Friday night.
Play the Yankees.
|07-20-16||Marlins -124 v. Phillies||1-4||Loss||-124||17 h 46 m||Show|
Suddenly the Marlins are a wild card team in the NL playoff race.
They've done so with stout pitching and tame bats. Vice-versa of what people would expect.
This is a familiar territory of two seasons ago when they showed signs of life post All-Star break before fading sharply towards the tail end of the season.
The biggest difference between that team and this one is their ability to win extra-inning games and one-run games.
They've done so in consecutive games against the Phillies in dramatic fashion.
Wednesday expect carry over and for the Marlins offense to finally get in rhythm.
They'll be up against Phillies starter Jeremy Hellickson who seems to be entering back to Earth territory witnessed as a Dback.
He gave up two home runs in his last outing against the Mets and has lost seven of his last ten.
Philadelphia's bullpen is also on the mend after blowing consecutive games. Grab the Marlins.
|07-18-16||Orioles -114 v. Yankees||1-2||Loss||-114||14 h 57 m||Show|
In the NFL, the adage is what you earn Sunday typically will be vanquished by double-dipping into Monday.
I see that here as the Yankees paltry efforts as of late were boosted by a Sunday night solid win over the Red Sox.
Yet, the Yankees troubles are evident with the fact that they're struggling at the plate and that their highly paid ace deliver in Aroldis Chapman has rarely been used over the last fifteen days.
Kevin Gausman is right up there with Chris Archer in painful losses in MLB this season. He has suffered repeated one run losses late in games, but delivers what you want with a high strikeout rate.
Grab the Orioles to put the Yankees back in line Monday.
|07-17-16||Brewers v. Reds -111||0-1||Win||100||7 h 13 m||Show|
The Reds were shellacked at home on Saturday to the tune of a 9-1 loss.
Sunday's matchup will decide the series as the Reds came from behind to defeat the Brewers on Friday 5-4.
On the mound for the Brewers will be Zach Davies opposed the Reds Dan Straily. Both have similar ERA's hovering over four runs which could lead bettors to jump on the Brewers after nine explosive runs Saturday.
Furthering matters is Straily's knack for drawing walks and allowing home runs. Straily ranks fifth in the NL in walks and has given up five home runs in his last five games.
Yet, I'll side with the Reds here as their lineup will bounce back nicely after being shut down by Jimmy Nelson.
Grab the Reds as a slight home favorite.
|07-04-16||Yankees v. White Sox +109||2-8||Win||109||4 h 0 m||Show|
Chicago White Sox
Today, we'll grab the underdog White Sox who have caught some money their way overnight.
I believe it's the proper value as James Shields steps on the mound against CC Sabathia of the Yankees.
CC is coming off a loss and rough outing against the Texas Rangers, which shot his ERA over 3 runs for the first time since May.
Look for the rise to continue against a White Sox team that is a contact laden club.
James Shields who has had undeniable woes since coming to the White Sox has settled in over his last two starts. A positive sign in his last start were five strikeouts against the Twins.
With his confidence back this is a nice spot to back the White Sox as small dogs.
|07-03-16||Royals v. Phillies -115||2-7||Win||100||5 h 59 m||Show|
|07-01-16||Giants v. Diamondbacks +150||6-4||Loss||-100||14 h 11 m||Show|
Friday, the Arizona Diamondbacks look to bounce back from a rough series against the Phillies as they host the San Francisco Giants.
Thus far on the season both match ups between the two teams have featured series sweeps.
The Giants swept May's series while the Diamondbacks won four in April.
Thursday, the Giants avoided a road sweep against the A's. The showcase belonged to their bats which produced twelve runs to lead the way.
Their display combined with Johnny Cuetto's stellar 11-1 record is hard to ignore.
Arizona, must get Shelby Miller comfortable early after another rough outing in his last start against Colorado.
Yet, the Diamondbacks offense is where I see value on the underdog. They're hitting the ball well and I see them continuing to hit the lumber against Cuetto who is coming off a six earned run performance against the Giants.
Take the Dbacks.
|07-01-16||Cubs v. Mets -102||2-10||Win||100||12 h 51 m||Show|
The Mets took one from the Cubs last night in dramatic fashion. First, they received three seventh inning runs when their offense looked dead in the water.
Then, they received the 27th save of the season from flawless Jeurys Familia.
Friday, they'll look to keep their momentum in stride against the potent Cubs.
While strong hitting may be lacking for the Mets, they have stud Jacob DeGrom on the mound.
Perhaps no pitcher in MLB is as devalued as DeGrom who boasts a 2.67 ERA with a 3-4 record.
Tough losses or no decisions have plagued DeGrom this season but this is a spot where he can put the Mets on his back.
The Cubs recent three wins over the Reds overshadowed the losses that occurred prior in six of seven games.
Pitching has waned and the Mets now have a bit of team confidence at the plate after last night's heroic come back.
Grab the Mets as Friday's oddsmaker error.