The Buffalo Bills for the fourth time in the last five seasons will get their shot on knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs. Unlike years past Josh Allen has put an emphasis on protecting the football, which has led to a career low in interceptions. The Bills with Josh Allen have four capable runners with James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Ray Davis. Expect the Bills to build on their regular season blue print which was a near ten minute time of possession advantage over the Chiefs. Grab the Bills in the AFC Championship.

For years the Ravens have faltered and not been able to get over the hump in the postseason with Lamar Jackson under center. That burden now has strong support with the addition of Derrick Henry. Henry’s playoff ability to sway a team we have seen before with the Titans, ending Tom Brady’s Patriots career, beating the Ravens, and helping build a 17-7 lead in the AFC championship on the Chiefs. His hunger combined and skill put the Ravens past the Bills and onto the AFC championship.

A wild card team that gets hot at the right time, usually gets that redemption game in the postseason. For the LA Rams they get that chance today on the road at Philadelphia. An Eagles team that routed the Rams on their own home field in front of a Sunday night football audience, 37-20. Since that performance the defense has excelled, and Sean McVay has put on a masterclass of preparation. Take the Rams to put forth another great effort even in cold weather snow conditions in Philadelphia.

The Kansas City Chiefs had their most regular season wins in the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid era, but it was also their lowest regular season point differential with Mahomes at quarterback. That speaks to how close most of their wins were. Off a bye teams can be slow out the gate. Houston is a common opponent from December 21st, that can adjust quicker to what they see in-game today. Look for the game to be played similar to their December matchup, which would give us the edge on the Texans. Grab the points with Houston.

At the end of the season there is value to be had on low win teams. We’ve seen the Raiders, Giants, and Jaguars win last week. Jacksonville accomplished the task of defeating the Tennessee Titans twice, and now can do the same against the Indianapolis Colts. A game back in week five that was the Jaguars first win of the season, and not as close as the final score suggested. Indianapolis got some late big plays to make the game close. Take the Jaguars to continue to show some pride to close out the season plus the points.

Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders incredible season featured yet another thrilling final drive from their rookie quarterback in last week’s victory over Philadelphia. Still, the Commanders have been playing with fire over their last couple of matchups. The Saints nearly walked them off on a two point conversion, and the Eagles were in command last week. Atlanta has new energy on both sides of the football with the quarterback move to Michael Penix. Take the Falcons to show that fire on the road.

Cooper Rush’s adaptability has been remarkable as Dallas has won four out of their last five games. But now the Cowboys will be without their big play receiver in Ceedee Lamb. The Eagles will also be able to game plan for Cooper Rush for a second time the season, the first team to be able to against Rush. They limited him and the Cowboys to just six points on November 10th. Even with Kenny Pickett as the starter grab the Eagles to roll.

On a short week the Las Vegas Raiders will host the Jacksonville Jaguars. After ten straight losses expect the Raiders to take out their frustrations against the Jaguars. They have regained some starters and will have Aiden O’Connell back under center. Jacksonville also has incentive to lose to be tied with the Raiders for fewest wins in the NFL. Take the Raiders to end their ten game losing streak.

Towards the end of the season it’s rare but there are cases of poor teams finishing strong. The New York Jets may have a 4-10 record, but they have been in position to win a majority of games. After finally breaking through against the Jaguars, look for the Jets to show some confidence against the Rams. This is a pressure spot for LA to maintain in the NFC West in a cold environment. Take the Jets plus the points.

The Tennessee Titans struggles this season have been hard to watch. Two weeks ago they fell to the Jaguars at home, and last week were blown out with Will Levis struggling once again. Mason Rudolph will get the start and this is an opportunity for the Titans as the Colts have a predictable offense with Tony Richardson’s struggles. Grab the points here with the Titans. 

The LA Chargers are a team that has changed their team identity with the loss of JK Dobbins. They have to win ugly, and rely more on their defense. It’s worked in low scoring games and covers against the Chiefs and Falcons. Expect the cross country travel to effect the Buccaneers offense to a degree. Baker Mayfield has had turnover issues with fumbles and four interceptions over his last two games. He’s also taken a lot of hits with twelve sacks over his last five games. Lay it with the Chargers.

The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the top conundrums of the season. Somehow they have a 12-1 record that has featured a bevy of close wins. Each of their last four victories has been by three points or fewer. They’ve also failed to cover in seven straight games. Take the Browns to give the Chiefs their latest battle and possibly even win outright. Grab the points with the home underdog.

The Jets continue to find ways to lose, but last week they outplayed the Miami Dolphins for the majority of the game. The offense moved the football well, and defensively they limited Miami to field goals until late in the second half. After consecutive weeks of covers for the Jaguars look for the team to have trouble outside the division. Lay the points with the Jets.

The Carolina Panthers market has been fascinating to watch and grow with quarterback Bryce Young’s transformation. The market has flipped from steep underdogs to being a favorite for the first time in three years. Dallas I do believe is going to limit the Panthers offense, but their defense is also going to be able to handle Cooper Rush. Rush has been inaccurate at times and not a reliable quarterback in second halves. Tail the Panthers as favorites. 

The Cincinnati Bengals are 4-8 on the season but one bright spot has been they are 3-0 SU and ATS when favored on the road. They had wins and covers against the Browns, Giants, and Panthers. They also have experience traveling on the road to Dallas with Cooper Rush at quarterback losing two seasons ago. Look for the Bengals to ramp up their play and get their fifth win of the season. Lay it -5.

There probably was not a team that played well, and still lost last week like the Arizona Cardinals. They controlled the game against Minnesota for almost the entirety, before a collapse in the fourth quarter. I expect a bit of a letdown early on against a Seattle team that defeated them two weeks ago. Additionally, the Seahawks defense limited Arizona to just six points in the win, and scored a defensive touchdown. Grab the points with Seattle.

The Jacksonville Jaguars showed a spark offensively late with Mac Jones at quarterback. The surge was enough to get a backdoor cover at home against the Houston Texans. Tennessee has showed some improvements over the recent weeks, which included a road win over the top team in the division in the Houston Texans. At home though they have yet to cover. Expect that trend to continue against the Jaguars.

The LA Rams had one of the worst defensive efforts when it comes to run defense on the season in the NFL. Saquon Barkley had a career game and got what he wanted each carry. Right before their bye week the Saints did the same to the Cleveland Browns with a Taysom Hill package. Yet, expect the Rams to force Derek Carr to have to beat them, who still has been lacking consistent halves of football. Grab the Rams in a bounce back spot.

The Cincinnati Bengals are one of the few teams in the NFL that season could be vastly different. They started off 0-3, including a one point loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. They had two games against the Ravens that were winnable as well. Look for the Bengals to come out with expected heightened play post their bye week. As tough as it is for Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh to lose consecutive games, the book is now out on Russ Wilson and the new look Steelers offense. Play the Bengals.

Since 2021, in Lamar Jackson’s career following a loss after week two and beyond the Ravens are 8-0. That’s certainly factored into the spread along with last year’s 20-10 Sunday night prime time win over the Chargers. For years, the narrative was the Chargers were a coach away from getting to the next level with poor losses under Brandon Staley. Under Coach Harbaugh we are seeing that, and like many instances this year with the Steelers/Cardinals we are seeing a home team on a winning streak devalued ATS. Tail the Chargers.

The forgotten team when it comes to the NFC West discussions are the Seattle Seahawks. They had lost five of six games prior to their bye week, and escaped with a final second win last week over the San Francisco 49ers. They now have new life and a chance to take the division lead. Arizona is a team they have defeated five straight times, and have not lost to against in the Geno Smith era. Back the Seahawks.

The Las Vegas Raiders six game losing streak began with a loss to the Denver Broncos in week five. Gardner Minshew was one of the main reasons for the loss, as he threw an ill-advised throw that led to a 100 yard pick six to tie the game at ten. It led to his benching, but there have been changes to the Raiders. Scott and Norv Turner added some life to the offense. Grab the Raiders to be sparked in the second matchup against Denver

The New England Patriots struggles against the Miami Dolphins in their first matchup, is why they shifted from veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett to rookie Drake Maye. Miami has been much more dynamic on offense with Tua, but are still vulnerable ATS at home. They needed a late broken play touchdown to get their first home cover of the season against the Las Vegas Raiders. Grab the Patriots on a spread that is a couple of points to high.

Jameis Winston gets to have some stability and a chance to settle in this year with the Cleveland Browns. It’s the first time since 2021 that he will start his fourth straight game. Pittsburgh, has went 6-1 in the division over the last two seasons. The one loss was to Cleveland, and frankly they were fortunate to win the other game on a scoop and score deciding touchdown by TJ Watt. Grab the points with Cleveland.

All signs appear that Kirk Cousins will give it a go Sunday against the Denver Broncos. Denver returns home after nearly ending the Kansas City Chiefs undefeated season. As great as they played offensively they were quiet after an early 14-3 lead. The prior week they also struggled in a blowout loss to Baltimore. Take Atlanta which even with a less than 100 percent Kirk Cousins is one of the more potent offenses in football.

The Chicago Bears have sustained three straight losses, and now will face a Packers team that has owned them. Additionally, the Packers are coming in with extra time to prepare off their bye week. Still, the Packers have had weaknesses offensively in the division this year with two of their three losses. On the first over adjustment on a Bears spread all season, take the value with the home underdog.

Sunday, there is no doubt that the Pittsburgh Steelers will have success offensively against the Ravens poor secondary that ranks last in the NFL. The question is can they consistently keep up with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense for four quarters on a small spread. With Baltimore having the rest advantage look for that to be the difference in the second half.

The Chicago Bears felt the effects of losing on a Hail Mary last week in Arizona. They were flat on both sides of the football, and just did not show any energy. Now from the coaches to the players this is a pressure spot where they have to respond against the Patriots. As great as Drake Maye game ending play was against the Titans, he did not perform well with four sacks and two interceptions. Take the Bears to do enough to cover the near touchdown spread.

After seven straight losses the Saints have moved on from Dennis Allen. Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons presents a rematch the Saints arguably should of won earlier in the season. Atlanta failed to get into the end zone offensively, in what was a back and forth contest. Expect the Saints to show some life after an embarrassing road loss last week to Carolina. Play the Saints.

The Arizona Cardinals have suddenly found themselves atop the NFC West. Over their last two games they have found a way to pull out close wins over the Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins. Look for the Bears to shake off an embarrassing finish against Washington last week, and pull together on both sides of the football. Take the Bears plus the points.

A team that will continue to present big numbers spread wise are the Las Vegas Raiders. They have been decimated with a talent decline that started with the departure of DaVante Adams, and they have also been dinged up at the tailback position. Yet, they still give a solid effort on the defensive side of the football which should present challenges for a Bengals offense that is winless at home. Tail the road team here in the Raiders plus the points.

The New England Patriots are coming off a shocking upset win at home over the New York Jets. Now they will travel on the road against a Tennessee Titans team that has shown flashes of solid play over the last two weeks. They hung around in the first half against the Buffalo Bills, and also did some nice things offensively against the Detroit Lions. Look for the Titans to finally put it together in an advantageous spot against the Patriots.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are still a long ways away from the team they were a season ago. Yet, perhaps they found some new wrinkles offensively in Europe. Running back Tank Bigsby has proven he should be the feature running back, and rookie wide receive Brian Thomas Jr. continues to develop. With the Packers they have had extended travel this season to Brazil, Los Angeles, and now Jacksonville. Look for the Jags to perform well as they did after Europe last season against Indianapolis.

The Houston Texans are returning from two outdoor away games against the Patriots and Pacers. Returning home they will face an Indianapolis Colts team that has played them close the last three matchups. Anthony Richardson as sporadic as his play can be, has looked comfortable against the Texans last season and this year in which he led the Colts to a backdoor cover. Texans win, but Colts cover this aggressive number.

One of the toughest tasks for teams in sports is that first game at home after a lengthy road trip. That is the case for a Buffalo Bills team that has had issues with its offense lately. Josh Allen was just nine for thirty two starts ago against the Houston Texans, and last week scored just three second half points against the Jets. Take Tennessee that just needs a serviceable game from Mason Rudolph.

The Seattle Seahawks travel to Atlanta with a bevy of injuries. Yet, they still have one of the more octane offenses in football led by quarterback Geno Smith. Atlanta may have won four games in a row, but at home they have struggled in close calls. They failed to cover their first three home games against Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and the Saints. The lone cover was an overtime thriller against Tampa Bay. Take the value here with Seattle needing to end a three game losing streak.

The Denver Broncos have rolled off three straight wins, including last week’s blowout over the Las Vegas Raiders. Sunday’s game should be much different as the Chargers are coming out of a bye week. They’ll also be hungry to end a two game skid. With any rookie quarterback there are going to be highs and lows. Look for the Chargers to be prepared to limit Bo Nix effectiveness. Take the Chargers.

The New Orlean Saints find themselves on a short week against a Buccaneers team coming off a Thursday game. On top of that, they are going to be starting a rookie fifth round quarterback in Spencer Rattler. Look for the Saints to rely on their defense and have enough in the arsenal to move the ball with Rattler. The defense sparked the Saints in an upset late in the season during the Buccaneers four game win streak. Grab the home underdog here in the Saints.

The Kansas City Chiefs remain one of two teams left that are undefeated. With all their injuries on the offensive side of the football, it has caused the offense to look average. On top of that Patrick Mahomes has just six touchdowns to five interceptions. Yet, this Chiefs team showed in their Super Bowl run last year that they don’t need their offense to be elite to get wins and covers. Look for the defense to set their offense with manageable drives and keep the Saints offense in check.  Take the Chiefs as the favorite.

The Las Vegas Raiders have turmoil within the organization once again. It was this time a season ago that the falling out was nearing an end with Josh McDaniels. Antonio Pierce and the Raiders got away with a win last week against the Browns despite a poor first quarter down 10-0, and a fourth quarter they were completely outplayed. That plays into the hand of Sean Payton that has his team prepared for a four quarter battle. Take the home team here with the Broncos.

Sunday offers a buy low spot on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Who had opportunities in last week’s loss to Houston, and afterwards Doug Peterson took some heat. Often times we see a veteran backup quarterback come in and succeed. Joe Flacco did so filling in for Anthony Richardson in last week’s win over Pittsburgh, but getting a start is entirely different. Take Jacksonville as they get their first win of the season and cover at home.

The Minnesota Vikings have jumped out to a 4-0 season record, as underdogs in three of the four matchups. Now they find themselves as the biggest favorites they have been this season against the Jets in London. This should be an all out battle, but look for the way that the Vikings finished their game against the Packers to have lingering effects. For the first time they looked vulnerable as they barely held on after a four touchdown lead. Take the Jets to cover the small number.

The Cincinnati Bengals truthfully could be a 3-0 team. They were in position to win all three of their games against the Patriots, Chiefs, and last week’s loss against the Commanders. The offense has to help their struggling defense by turning drives from field goals to touchdowns. Often times we see veteran backups step in at the quarterback position and ignite their team in their first start before a big swing the other direction. Take the Bengals to pick up their first win of the season and cover.

The New Orleans Saints must recover after a poor showing offensively in last week’s home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. With a bevy of injuries on both sides of the football the game plan is going to center on their defense. Atlanta is already 0-2 at home and there seems to be a lack of synergy to finish out a game. Take the Saints to manage through their injuries against the Falcons.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have the daunting task of traveling on the road once again after Monday’s blowout loss to Buffalo. The good news is they will be playing a divisional rival in the Houston Texans. It’s actually the last win Trevor Lawrence had under center back in November of 2023. Look for the offense to perform better without a ballooned deficit to work out of. Take the points with the Jaguars.

Over Trevor Lawrence’s last seven starts the Jaguars are winless. But this creates a value spot on an over reaction. Jacksonville was still in both of their games thanks to their defense, in two close losses. Additionally, Jacksonville excelled in last year’s London 25-20 win over Buffalo. The defense limited the Bills to just twenty nine rushing yards, and Trevor Lawrence had one of this two 300 yard passing games on the season. Grab the points with Jacksonville.

Detroit is fortunate they are not 0-2 on the season. Sometimes getting on the road for the first time can help alleviate some of the early season rust. Detroit gets to face an Arizona Cardinals team that is coming off their most lopsided victory since the 2016 season. Sell high spot here on the Cardinals, as the Lions gut out a tough road win in Arizona.

Tampa Bay’s start to the season has featured two strong performances over Washington and Detroit. Washington featured a rookie quarterback in his first start, and Tampa Bay had familiarity in their third matchup against Detroit in the past year. As poor as Denver has played offensively, they have lost both their games by a touchdown or less. Look for Denver to fight once again and get a road cover at Tampa.

Pittsburgh showed their defensive might in week one on the road against Atlanta. The offense did not have to show much, and now will have to go on the road for a second consecutive week. Denver’s rookie quarterback Bo Nix did not have a good first game, but stuck with it and got the Broncos into the end zone on their final drive. Take Denver at home to clean up the offense and battle defensively against the Steelers.

The Detroit Lions will be sizable favorites every week, and showed that with an enormous line move before Sunday night football last week. Now instead of a 3.5 point favorite they have ballooned double the number against Tampa Bay. This is a rare spot I don’t mind backing the big number. This is the third matchup between the Lions and Buccaneers over the last two seasons, and Tampa Bay has always been an untrustworthy team off a big win. Lay it with the Lions

The New York Jets throughout most of the summer were +5.5 against San Francisco, now we have seen the number bounce around to 3.5,  now back to 4.5. This is a key number to grab early in the AM as this likely will come down again. This is a 49ers team similar to Cincinnati that has had distractions with their premier wide receiver in Brandon Aiyuk, tackle in Trent Williams, and Christian McCaffrey is dinged up going into the season. Not to mention Brock Purdy was shaky in the preseason. Take the Jets plus the points.

The Washington Commanders are another team that have a new Coach in Dan Quinn and a new OC with Kliff Kingsbury. They got their rookie quarterback with Jaylen Daniels who is going to bring a versatile element that’s unexpected week one. Expect the Commanders to be ready on both sides of he football from a prep stand point. Take the Commanders. 

I’m a proponent of backing a team with a new coach. For the LA Chargers they not only brought in John Harbaugh as coach, but they shifted a lot of personnel. No longer is Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. Still defensively, they’ve had success against the Raiders including Khalil Mack having a monster sack game. Take the Chargers as Harbaugh comes out victorious on the small number

The Chicago Bears have heightened new expectations even with a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams. Last year the Tennessee Titans were one of the more frustrating teams because of their inability to compete in second halves. That’s a trait I don’t expect Will Levis to shake in week one against a strong Bears defense. Take the Bears to win by four points or more.

The Minnesota Vikings have veteran Sam Darnold leading the team with rookie JJ McCarthy out for the year. With all the issues the Vikings had the second half of the season at the quarterback position, the Vikings could be getting decreased attention from oddsmakers in week one. The New York Giants will be better than most anticipate offensively, but expect the rust to show for Daniel Jones who is as turnover prone as any starter in football. Take the Vikings.

Most of the week I was leaning towards the Rams side. But something about home field advantage typically carries over in the postseason. We saw this in both of yesterday’s postseason openers. On a small number I trust the Detroit potent offense to push the football down the field on a young Rams defense. Close game but Detroit cashes ATS.

With the Jaguars trailing at halftime now is where I see a bit more value on the Buffalo Bills side. Even with the Bills likely to be in with a Jags loss, they still want the momentum of closing out their season strong. Additionally, they could win the division with a win over Miami. Grab the Bills.

We have seen two scenarios so far where resting starters has led to an easy victory for the opposition. We saw Pittsburgh pull away from Baltimore, and Cincinnati blow out Cleveland. With Kansas City, I expect a different outcome. Blaine Gabbert is a long time veteran, and the Chiefs have filled their roster with complimentary players versus a couple of stars. Grab the Chiefs.

Kevin O’Connell has got a few wins simply by rotating quarterbacks. It started with Josh Dobbs, and although they did not win Nick Mullens had success with the offense. Look for Hall to have similar success but to cut out the turnovers. Green Bay is thin in their skill positions. Take the Vikings to complete the season sweep over Green Bay.

Buy the half point on the market here with the Saints. I’ve been big on the Buccaneers during their hot streak, but facing a divisional opponent is where team weaknesses can be exposed. The Bucs needed a last minute touchdown to escape in a recent win over the Falcons, and I believe they’ll be in for a true battle Sunday. Take the points on a sell high spot after Tampa Bay’s blowout over Jacksonville.

New England’s season of high losses is likely to to continue tonight against Denver. Yet, I think the spread is to high here. New England has been a bit better defensively, and Russ Wilson is showing a bit of an end of season slide. Take the points here with the Patriots.

Jacksonville has been dynamite on the road with a 5-1 record, but they did lose at Cleveland and are on a three game losing streak. Tampa Bay has opened up the offense a bit more and Baker Mayfield surprisingly has found a home. Jacksonville may get the early lead here but look for Tampa Bay’s strong end of season to continue. Take the Bucs.

Buffalo has taken care of business on their home field this season. Their issues have been on the road and in Europe. While Dallas projects as the better team I see this as a spot where the Bills continue their push. Look for their new way of grinding out wins to payoff as they handle the Cowboys. Grab Buffalo.

Late in the season we see teams start to over acheive for the following season. The Tennessee Titans could be in that boat with quarterback Will Levi. Houston has had issues with their own quarterback injuries, and depth issues. Take the Titans even on a short week Sunday.

Post bye week I expect the Vikings to have corrected issues with quarterback Josh Dobbs, who is still adjusting after being traded. The Vegas Raiders are going to also have success but this boils down to the Vikings being in a must win situation. Look for Coach O'Connell to utilize his tail backs more and get the play making needed to pull out the win. Grab the Vikings.

Quick write up here but the Bears strength on stopping the run should limit a Lions team offensively. Justin Fields tends to have some of his better games through the air in the division as well. Take the home underdog in the Bears.

To be down to an emergency starting quarterback in Joe Flacco is a rare site in the NFL. The veteran will step in for a team that did not do well offensively as a small road underdog last week against the Broncos. Still, this is a team that has managed to overcome a lot and has not folded multiple weeks in a row. Take the Browns plus the points. 

It is common knowledge that Arizona does not want to win as they try and keep their chances high for a top draft pick. Traveling to face a Pittsburgh team that is rejuvenated offensively is a tricky spot. Still, I expect a good effort more to the tune of what we saw a couple of weeks ago against Houston. Take the big number underdog Cardinals here.

Jacksonville has had just one blemish and that was acceptable since it came at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers. For the Texans this is a chance to show that they are more than an up and coming young team. Look for the Texans to step up to the challenge and sweep the Jaguars this season.

The surprise element to a team can provide a spark no matter how down the season has been. We have seen this with the Raiders and for one week with Arizona and Kyler Murray. Houston has been potent with their offense but they are 0-3 ATS this year against NFC opponents in the Bucs, Panthers, and Falcons. Grab the points here with Arizona.

A game of importance will be the San Francisco 49ers versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. This is the game many will be watching to see if the Jaguars are the real deal. At 6-2, this could catapult them to a serious AFC postseason threat. Yet, I like the 49ers to come out of their bye week with the mindset they’ve had in the prior years. Take the 49ers to pull out a close road win and cover the number.

The Green Bay Packers have been a hard team to watch. Even with a clear advantage at home last week against the Rams they struggled to move the football. They closed the door finally and in the NFL all it takes is one win to regain a teams confidence. On the road take the points here with the Packers. 

The Raiders made a long overdue switch by firing Josh McDaniels. A move of this sorts typically ignites a team which has been solid at home. They won tight games against both the Packers and Patriots. While the talent is going to need an overhaul look for the Raiders to play inspired football and beat the Giants.

Throughout the NFL we are seeing teams make a change at the quarterback position. Tampa Bay appears they may be headed in that direction as well. Baker Mayfield had several opportunities against the Falcons and could not deliver and struggled for much of the game against the Bills. Take the Texans on a buy low spot coming off a loss to Carolina.

The Packers have not had a home game since late September. As a result they have lost some close calls to the Raiders and Broncos. Facing a resurgent Vikings team look for the Packers to get off to a better start. Protecting their first year starter should be a bit easier at home, and look for the Vikings miscues to occur. Take the Packers. 

The LA Rams are going through a plethora of injuries at the tailback position. It’ll certainly be a challenge against a Pittsburgh Steelers fanbase that travels well and has a hard nosed defense. Yet, Matthew Stafford is playing elite level football and has some big time weapons to throw to. With the Steelers struggles offensively, the Rams will pull out a victory as a small home favorite. Take the Rams.

Often times we have seen a backup quarterback be successful in spots when his name is called. Yet, when the job becomes his the issues come to the fore front. Gardner Minshew has starter experience but will be in a very tough spot against the top defense in football. Look for Cleveland to survive an ugly offensive game to deliver on the road.

Young teams are going to have issues with consistency. That has been the case for the Falcons but there has also been promise. Even with last week’s issues with Desmond Ridder’s turnovers they were still in the game. They have a knack for keeping it close and Tampa Bay appears to be in an offensive rut with a lack of a ground game. Take the Falcons

The Eagles at 5-0 continue to be a bit of a conundrum. They have not won in easy fashion like last year, and are coming off a road game in LA. Still, this is the right matchup for them against a Jets team that has over achieved ATS in multiple weeks against the Chiefs and Broncos. Grab Philadelphia in what will be more of a fluid game than what we have seen. 

The Patriots poor loss last week to the Saints was one of the all time lows during the Belichick era. Poor quarterback play and a lack of talent offensively is assuredly going to make it one of the worst seasons in quite awhile for the Patriots. Yet, I’m not buying the Raiders just yet. Jimmy G’s arm strength is not there which should let the Patriots play safe defensively. Take New England to bounce back on the road.

Kansas City may very well be the team that gets back to the Super Bowl, but they are in a tough spot. They’re on the road against a Minnesota team that tasted a victory that shouldn’t have happened against Carolina. Their simplified offense with Cam Akers and Allie Mattison should help propel Kirk Cousins out of his rut. Take the home dog in the Vikings.

The Eagles are an attraction undefeated and should be as a road favorite week five against the Rams. Los Angeles has been over valued with early season ATS cashes against the 49ers, Seahawks, and last week against the Colts. Matthew Stafford took some hits and seemed to be grimacing late against the Colts, and this is where we see the shift of their season take place. Grab the Eagles to run away and go 5-0 on the season.

The Giants have dug themselves a hole at 1-3 with poor play and an offense that has shown no life. As the NFL has shown you have to ignore the past and look for a value play. Miami’s last home game they poured 70 on Denver, but are coming off a loss. Look for the Giants to show a better effort here and cover a huge number. Take the Giants.

Minnesota has went from being one of the best regular season teams a year ago to 0-3. Now on the road the pressure is on after squandering a golden opportunity late against the Chargers. Facing a rookie quarterback Minnesota will likely get the best of Carolina. Yet, I look for the Panthers to keep this close and cover as a home dog.

The Bengals adjusted for Monday Night football’s win over the Rams. As sloppy as the offense still looks the defense showed an ability to rise to the occasion. That should be in play against a Tennessee offense that looks bottom tier even with Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill. Take Cincinnati to get to .500 as they win another close game.

Even on a short week look for the Cleveland Browns to bounce back Sunday against the Titans. They were an offensive miscue away from being 2-0 on the season. The loss of Nick Chubb is going to force the offense to find new avenues for success. Additionally, the Titans have a knack for keeping opponents in games, as we saw in two close contests to begin the season. Take the Browns ATS.

Washington quickly discovered they are going to need to do a better job protecting the football. Sam Howell struggled with ill advised throws against the Arizona Cardinals. On the road expect Ron Rivera and Washington to run the ball much more, to open up the passing game. This will be a close tight game with the half point being crucial. Take Washington.

Divisional games in consecutive weeks to start the season is very tough. Cincinnati has to answer for a bad performance against the Browns. More often than not good teams respond but outlier plays become a factor ATS. Look for turnovers and a crucial miscue late to benefit the Ravens ATS. Take the underdog. 

The Seahawks were a team that surprised many last season under Geno Smith. Now many expect Seattle to take that next step forward with more weapons at their disposal. They will get the job done Sunday as the LA Rams fit the bill of a Super Bowl winner that declines quickly.

Over the last five years the Tennessee Titans are just 1-4 ATS to begin the season. Sunday is a favorable matchup against a Saints team with a new quarterback under center in Derek Carr. Look for Carr’s turnover issues to be a deciding factor with the Titans executing a tad bit better. Take the points with Tennessee.

The AFC North figures to be one of the tightest division races in the NFL. Out the gate week one the Browns should have an edge early on. Yet, expect Joe Burrow to shake off rust and continue to be one of the best finishers at the quarterback position. The small spread here pays off on the road team here.

Any big line move in most sports I’ll tail against it. As great as the Bills are a 4.5 point line move to two full touchdowns is too much in the post-season. Miami finished the year as a stout covering team in the division, with covers against New England, Buffalo, and the Jets. Skylar Thompson will play better than he did last week against the Jets, and the Bills since week five are 0-4 on spreads higher than 9.5.

Typically I’m one that will bypass the final week of the NFL season. We know there are plenty of teams that have nothing to play for and primary focus is the off-season or post-season. Yet, I love the turn around I’ve seen from the Panthers under Steve Wilks. The building blocks are in place and I believe they finish off the season on a positive note. Take the underdog Panthers against a Saints team that’s value is a bit skewed off of three straight wins. 

After a loss last week to the Carolina Panthers the pressure is on the Detroit Lions. They’ll face a Bears team that has lost eight straight games but played the Lions tough earlier this season. Chicago had a 24 to 10 lead, before the Lions stormed back and won in the fourth quarter. Look for the Bears to play a bit of a spoiler role with a competitive game and road cover. Play Chicago.

The Indianapolis Colts woeful performance on Monday Night looked like a team that has the offseason on their minds. For the Giants they’ve been an underdog five weeks in a row, and Sunday will mark the highest they’ve been favored all season long. As poor as the Colts looked six days ago, the NFL always showcases to forget what you last saw. Expect a sloppy game but for the Colts to finish within the number. 

Look for the Green Bay Packers to make things a little more interesting in their slim postseason chances. Their offense may still not look like prior years, but their defense has limited opponents to twenty points or under in three of four weeks. Miami’s three game slide was all on the road, but puts pressure on their 5-1 home record Sunday. Play the points with the Packers. 

One of the toughest spots in the NFL is building off of a showcase victory. The Cincinnati Bengals did so last week after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs the week prior. Now though they have to go on the road against a desperate Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. There will be moments where it looks like the Bucs will end the Bengals five game winning streak, but look for the Bengals to continue to showcase themselves as a legit contender in the end. Grab Cincinnati.

Winning suddenly with an interim coach and a completely reshuffled roster is not supposed to happen. Yet, Sam Darnold has looked healthy and has accepted the Panthers run heavy script. With a Buccaneers loss Sunday they would have the tie breaker and division lead if they win Sunday. Grab the Panthers as they build a season high third straight win and defeat the Steelers. 

Seattle still has momentum offensively but it has been waning. Traction to their favored side has teetered. Even with their playoff hopes clinging against a bottom level NFL team, there is value to bet against the Seahawks. Carolina has played inspired football under their interim coach Wilks, and has the checks and balances of safe football with Sam Darnold. Play the points with Carolina. 

Throughout their down years the Detroit Lions have had a knack of playing solid football in the division against the Minnesota Vikings. Looking back at their week three loss they had the game in hand before a fourth quarter melt down. Yet, they have grown from a string of close losses early in the season and won four of their past five. They are correctly favored against the 10-2 Vikings. Play Detroit.