Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-01-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +3.5 | Top | 89-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #546 Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 vs. Denver Nuggets – 8:10 PM ET - We like the situation to back the Wolves at home here as they are coming off a loss to the Hawks and playing with revenge from last year’s playoffs series loss to Denver. Minnesota actually played well in Atlanta the other night but couldn’t overcome some hot shooting by the Hawks. Minnesota shot 49% from the field overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. Denver is 4-0 to the start the season but we’re not sold on their record as it’s come against the Lakers, Grizzlies, Thunder and Jazz. Only one of those wins comes against a team with a winning record and two of those wins are against teams with a combined 1-7 SU record. The Wolves were 22-19 SU at home last season with an average Margin of Victory of +0.9PPG while the Nuggets weren’t a great road team with a 19-22 SU record -3.1PPG. Denver may have a top 10 offensive efficiency rating this season, but the Wolves are 7th in defensive efficiency. Last season Karl-Anthony Towns missed all four regular season meetings with the Nuggets and he’ll have a big impact in this game that Minnesota has had circled since last season’s playoffs. Grab the points. |
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11-01-23 | Sabres v. Flyers -105 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
#32 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Flyers (-105) over Buffalo Sabres, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Flyers are off a tight 3-2 loss but that came against a strong Hurricanes team and, overall, Philadelphia again looked solid in that match-up. Philadelphia has been a bit of an early season surprise but the fact is they have a good mix of young talent and veteran presence and also the management and hockey operations changes that were made entering this season are paying immediate dividends. The Flyers right now have looked just as good, if not better, than the Sabres so far this season and also have the home ice edge in this match-up. That being said, the set up here is perfect because Buffalo is off a shocking win over a strong Avalanche team. The Sabres won that game 4-0 behind a shutout performance from Lukkonen between the pipes. However, he had struggled prior to that and Buffalo has been dealing with injuries to goalies Levi and Comrie. The point being, Lukkonen was their #3 choice at goalie! His first two outings were unimpressive so don't be surprised if he quickly regresses after the shocking win over Colorado. As for the Flyers, their #1 goalie is Carter Hart and he is expected between the pipes here and has played very well particularly on home ice. Hart has allowed a total of just 6 goals in his 4 home starts this season! Overall, the Flyers are the deeper team as they are getting more out of their 2nd and 3rd lines than Buffalo has this season. The Sabres have struggled other than their top line. Also, prior to the 4-0 win, Buffalo had lost 5 of 8 games and other than a 3-1 win over the Islanders they were allowing about 4 goals per game in the other 7 games in that stretch. Philly is now off B2B home losses but Hart was in goal for only one of them and this followed the Flyers going a perfect 3-0 in their first 3 home games and winning those games by a combined score of 12 to 3. The Sabres have lost 2 of 3 on the road this season. Home team money line is our play here. |
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10-31-23 | Rangers +100 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
#951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -100 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 8:03 PM ET - This game is essentially a bullpen game as Mantiply is just an opener for the Diamondbacks and Heaney has lasted a total of only 6 innings his 4 post-season appearances (2 starts). So if we talk about team facts here, the Rangers have won all 9 of their road post-season games! Based on the way Texas has played away from home in this post-season, they are loaded with confidence and the same can not be said for a Diamondbacks team that so often has struggled to score many runs in these playoffs. We look for that road team trend to reach 10 in a row as the Rangers resume their long-term pattern of consistently crushing the ball away from home. In the ALCS, Texas delivered that huge 9th inning to put the finishing touches on a huge Game 6 win which carried right into a Game 7 dominating win! Those 2 wins to close out the series at Houston have already carried momentum into their first travels in the World Series as well as they jumped out 3-0 in the 3rd inning yesterday and then hung on for the 3-1 win. The Rangers lineup has proven to be a very confident group away from home in this post-season and will likely hit much better today too after a surprisingly quiet effort yesterday. Texas rolls again here with our computer math model showing a strong probability of another road win in this one. Take the Rangers |
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10-31-23 | Northern Illinois -5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
#303 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -5 over Central Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This game opened with NIU as a 3 point favorite and has jumped to -5 and we agree with that move. We have the Huskies closer to a 7 point chalk in our power ratings so we still feel there is value on the road favorite. CMU has 2 MAC wins this year vs Akron and EMU and both were tight games with the Chippewas winning by 7 and 3 respectively. Those are 2 of the worst teams in the country both rated outside the top 115 in our power ratings. CMU’s 2 MAC losses came at the hands of Buffalo & Ball State, who are both ranked outside the top 100 and have a combined record of 5-11. NIU has played the much tougher MAC slate and has a record of 3-1 and they are very close to being undefeated in league play with their only loss coming by 2 points vs Toledo, the best team in the conference. The Huskies beat Ohio by 10 points as well who is rated as the 3rd best team in the MAC. Northern & CMU have faced 2 common opponents in league play (ECU & Akron) and while Central beat those 2 teams by a combined 10 points, Northern Illinois beat them by a combined 48 points. We have the advantage at QB and on defense in this game with Northern. Senior QB Lombardi is a veteran and in MAC play he’s completed over 63% of his passes in all 4 games with 5 TD’s and 0 interceptions. CMU starting QB Bauer, who was the back up to start the season, is completing 58% of his passes this season and on MAC play vs 4 very poor teams he has 4 TD’s and 6 interceptions. Defensively NIU ranks in the top 25 nationally in YPG & YPP allowed. Central Michigan ranks 91st and 122nd in those 2 categories. On the season NIU has a +0.4 YPP differential, +32 YPG differential, and a +24 point differential. CMU has a -1.4 YPP differential, -70 YPG differential, and a -62 point differential. The Huskies by at least a TD in this one. |
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10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions UNDER 47 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 47 POINTS LV Raiders at Detroit Lions, 8:20 PM ET - We are betting the NFL TV night game Under trend will continue here with this non-conference showdown between the Raiders and Lions. On that note, heading into this past weekend, Unders were 22-11 this season when non-conference teams squared off. These two teams are two of the slower paced teams in the NFL with LV running a play every 28.8 seconds (21st), while the Lions run a play every 29.5 seconds (27th). Scoring is down in the NFL this season at 43.4PPG with Unders cashing at roughly 60%. The Raiders have the second worst offense in terms of efficiency and haven’t had any success running the ball or throwing it. LV is 27th in total yards per game, last in rushing yards per game and yards per rush. It will be tough to run in this game against a Lions defense that is 2nd in rushing yards allowed a 9th in yards per rush attempt. Detroit has the superior offense in this matchup as the Lions rank top 11 in total yards per game, yards per play and rushing yards per game. They also rank 5th in passing yards and 8th in completion percentage. The Raiders aren’t great at stopping the run so expect the Lions to focus on that aspect of their offense. We don’t expect the Lions to put QB Goff in jeopardy with Raider’s edge rusher Maxx Crosby (6.5 sacks) on the field which will limit explosive plays by Detroit. Las Vegas is scoring just 16PPG and only one of their games this season has finished with more points than this total. Detroit games have finished with less than 46 total points in four of their seven games. |
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10-30-23 | Warriors v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 130-102 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:10 PM ET - We were not high on the Warriors heading into the season and nothing on the court has changed that opinion. The Warriors were atrocious on the road last season with a 11-30 SU record and an average point differential of minus -4.3PPG which was 8th worst in the NBA. Tonight, they are playing the second end of a back-to-back and face a rested Pelicans team playing their second straight home game. The Pels have already beaten two playoff teams from a season ago with a 7-point win in Memphis and a 9-point home victory over the 76ers. Despite missing Zion Willamson all of last season and Brandon Ingram for a portion of the season the Pels still put together a 27-14 SU home record with an average +/- of +5PPG. Last season at home the Pelicans beat the Warriors twice, once by 9-points and once by 45. Golden State is still a marquee team and opponents ‘get up’ every time they face the Warriors and you can bet the Pelicans bring their ‘A’ game tonight. Lay the short number. |
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10-30-23 | Rangers -104 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
#945 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -110 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 8:03 PM ET - Look at this line today and tell us nothing is "fishy" here with this one! The fact is one could argue that the Diamondbacks, at least based on stats so far in this post-season for the pitchers involved here, have the much bigger pitching advantage today in this match-up, How is this line almost a pick'em when Brandon Pfaadt has a 2.70 ERA in the post-season and Max Scherzer has a 9.45 ERA in the post-season? Yes...we are saying the same thing here! How is this possible? Well the fact is that Scherzer has more rest entering this start then he did entering his prior start and that will make a difference here! Also, Pfaadt really struggled for much of this season before now enjoying some post-season success. Don't be surprised if he matches up much worse with the Rangers here than he did with the Phillies. Overall, Pfaadt is not a guy with dominating stuff. Also, let's now look at other factors here like the fact that the Rangers have won all 8 of their road post-season games! This is a pivotal Game 3 in this series and yet this line seems funny to us and we look for that road team trend to reach 9 in a row as the Rangers continue to crush the ball away from home. In the ALCS, Texas delivered that huge 9th inning to put the finishing touches on a huge Game 6 win which carried right into a Game 7 dominating win and those 2 wins to close out the series at Houston will carry momentum into their first travels in the World Series as well. The Rangers lineup has proven to be a very confident group away from home in this post-season and Texas rolls again here after the ugly Game 2 loss at home. Take the Rangers |
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10-29-23 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 46 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
#271/272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - These 2 played a few weeks ago in KC and the final score was Chiefs 19, Broncos 8. We see a similar type game on Sunday. Bad weather is expected in Denver with high probability of snow and high temps in the 20’s. Not great for a solid offensive output. In their game on October 12th neither team lit it up offensively with KC putting up 389 total yards and Denver just 197. The KC defense has been high level this season not allowing a single opponent to top 21 points. They rank in the top 10 in total defense and YPP allowed and they are giving up only 15 PPG (2nd in the NFL). Their overall defense ranks 5th DVOA and 6th EPA. They’ll be facing a Denver offense that has scored 21 or less in 5 of their 7 games this season. Their last 2 games the Broncos have scored 27 total points vs KC & Green Bay. The Denver defense ranks dead last in many categories, however much of that is skewed due to their game @ Miami where they allowed 70 points, over 700 total yards, and 10.2 YPP. If we subtract their game vs Miami, the Broncos are allowing 24 PPG which is much better than their current number of 31 PPG allowed. They are trending up as well allowing 36 total points in the last 2 games vs KC & GB. We don’t expect many offensive snaps here with 2 of the slower paced teams in the NFL – KC ranks 25th in plays per second and Denver 23rd. Under is the play. |
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10-29-23 | Jaguars -2 v. Steelers | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
#253 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jags -2 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - How the Steelers have a 4-2 record we have no idea. They’ve been outgained in every game this season. They are just the 2nd team since 1970 with a winning record through 6 games after being outgained in all 6. As you might expect based on those numbers, Pittsburgh is 26th in the NFL in YPP differential and every team below them has a losing record. The offense is bad ranking 31st in total offense, 28th in rush offense, and 25th in pass offense. They have topped 300 yards of total offense just once this season and that was facing a poor Raider defense. The Steelers are 2nd in the NFL in turnover margin which has helped their cause but can’t be counted on from week to week. The Jags are rolling right now. They’ve won 4 straight games both SU & ATS and they’ve had 10 days to get ready for this one after beating the Saints on the road last Thursday night. Jacksonville should control the ground game here as Pittsburgh’s defense weakness is stopping the run. They rank 28th in the NFL allowing 142 YPG on the ground and Jax is putting up 114 YPG rushing. On the flip side, the Steelers have been terrible on the ground barely rushing for 80 YPG. Pittsburgh is averaging 61.0 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponent, 31st in the league while Jacksonville is averaging 32.9 more rushing yards per game than their opponent, eighth in the league. Jags QB Lawrence is a bit banged up but has had extra time as we mentioned and practiced this week so we expect him to play. Big edge at QB and in the running game for Jacksonville so we’ll lay it. |
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10-28-23 | Ohio State -14.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
#193 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State -14.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wisconsin’s going to have all kinds of trouble moving the ball and putting points in the board in this game. Versus the 2 best defenses they’ve faced this season, Iowa & Rutgers, they scored a total of 23 offensive points in those 2 games while averaging just 4.4 YPP. Last week vs a below average Illinois team UW was down 21-7 entering the 4th quarter and scored 18 unanswered points to pick up a tight win. Their back up QB Locke is now under center for Wisconsin after starter Mordecai broke his hand in the Iowa game. While Locke was solid in his first start last week vs an Illinois defense that ranks 81st in total defense. Now they face the best defense they’ve seen this season, but a longshot in our opinion, ranking 2nd in YPP allowed (3.8 YPP) and 3rd nationally in scoring defense (10.5 PPG allowed). The Bucks held a very good PSU offense, who was averaging 41 PPG entering last week’s game in Columbus, to only 12 points (with their final TD coming with 29 seconds left in the game) on just 3.5 YPP. They held PSU’s rushing attack to just 1.9 YPC and if they duplicate that on Saturday, Wisconsin is in huge trouble. On the other side OSU had some decent success last week scoring 20 points vs a high level PSU stop unit we have rated much better than Wisconsin’s. The Badgers defense is way down from previous editions with no big playmakers in the front 7. Their run defense ranks 52nd nationally after sitting in the top 10 each of the previous 4 seasons. We’re not sure they’ll be able to hold up in the trenches on either side of the ball. The OSU offense is starting to find their rhythm under new QB McCord as they average 6.6 YPP (25th nationally) and prior to last week’s game vs PSU they had scored at least 35 points in 4 of their previous 5 games. Prior to topping Penn State by 8, the Buckeyes had won each of their previous 3 Big 10 games by at least 20 points. Lay it. |
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10-28-23 | Knicks v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 87-96 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -3.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - This is a great early season situation to back the Pelicans at home facing the unrested Knicks. New York is off a hard fought game last night in Atlanta making this the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in four nights. Last night the Knicks had a tight rotation with essentially 8 players getting all the minutes so fatigue becomes a factor in this one. New Orleans got off to a great start to the season with a road win on Oct 25th in Memphis. This will be their home opener where the Pels were 27-15 SU with an average +/- of plus 4.8PPG last season. New Orleans achieved that record despite not having Zion Williamson for the season and missing Brandon Ingram for 37 games. In the season opener they had their starting five in place for the 111-104 win over Memphis where they dominated the glass with a 52-37 rebound advantage. This game has blowout written all over it. Back the Pelicans at home here. |
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10-28-23 | Georgia v. Florida +14.5 | Top | 43-20 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida +14.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The bottom line here is that Georgia has been overvalued in the betting markets all season long, hence the 1-5-1 ATS record to date. The Bulldogs have played an extremely soft schedule without a quality win on their resume. This team was bound to see a regression this season after heavy losses to the NFL and the loss of their O-coordinator. Georgia has impressive offensive/defensive statistics, ranking top 12 in many of the main categories but again, who have they faced? Not one of the offenses the Bulldogs have faced will be as good as this Gator offense. The best yards per game offense the Dawgs have faced was UAB, the other five FBS teams rank 79th or worst in total O. The same can be said about the misleading Georgia offensive statistics. They have faced four defenses that rank 84th or worse, three of which are 119th or worse. Now the Bulldogs will face a Florida defense that is 36th in total D allowing 345YPG. Florida has a top 10 rushing D in terms of success rate and can limit the Dawgs rushing attack without committing more players to the box. The Gators have two quality foes on their resume as they faced Utah in the opening game of the season and also hosted Tennessee. Florida is in the upper third statistically in most offensive categories and thrives in their passing game. That may be surprising with former Wisconsin QB Mertz under center. But Mertz has played well for the Gators with 12 TD’s to just 2 INT’s this season while completing 76% of his attempts. Mertz is currently the top rated QB in the SEC when it comes to 3rd downs. Mertz shouldn’t face too much pressure either as the Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 in pass rush. Georgia will be without their best offensive weapon in TE Bowers which will make things difficult for QB Beck playing his first big away from home (neutral site game). With two losses this is the Gators Super Bowl, and we like them to keep this close throughout. |
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10-27-23 | Nets +6.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +6.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We like the situation here with a Nets team off a home loss, while the Mavs are off a road win. Dallas got a 7-point win over the young San Antonio Spurs who won just 22 games a year ago. Brooklyn took a contender in the Eastern Conference down to the wire and lost by 1-point to the Cavaliers. The Nets suffered that close loss despite their best players having off nights. Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson and Spencer Dinwiddie led the Nets in scoring a year ago at 26.1PPG, 16.6PPG and 16.5PPG respectively. Between the 3 of them in the opener they managed just 37-total points. Those players will see a dramatic improvement in their scoring tonight seeing they just faced a Cavs team that was 1st in defensive efficiency a year ago. Dallas by comparison was 23rd in the league in DEFF a season ago. The Nets had a winning record on the road last season at 22-19 with a +/- of -1.3PPG. Dallas at home was 23-18 SU with an average Margin of Victory of +2.7PPG. Last season the Mavs were the worst home favorite in the NBA with a 10-23-2 ATS record. As an away dog the Nets were a profitable 15-11 ATS. Easy call to grab the points with Brooklyn |
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10-27-23 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
#941/942 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Friday at 8:07 PM ET - The Rangers have a retractable roof ballpark. That helps with the brutal summers in Texas to keep the heat out. Also, when the roof is open, the Rangers have hit much better. That is why Astros manager Dusty Baker was mad during the ALCS when a decision was made for the roof to be open when he had been told it would not be. It turned out not to matter to the Astros as they won every game in Arlington in the series and the Rangers won every game in Houston. However, the point as it relates to run totals is that this ballpark has been proven to be less hitter-friendly when the roof is closed. The expectation here, due to rain in the area tonight, is that the roof will be closed. Couple that with two teams that do not see each other much in regular seasons plus the jitters of a Game 1 World Series match-up for two teams not usually in the showcase event and you have a great set-up for a light-hitting Game 1. Also, the bullpens for each of these teams got the job done well when called upon in their prior series and then, on top of that, you have a great starting pitching match-up here in Game 1. Zac Gallen struggled a bit with the Phillies but, even including those stats, he has allowed an average of just 2.5 runs per start in his last 6 starts overall. The Rangers Nathan Eovaldi has been great and is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA in this post-season. He also is coming off a 12-5 regular season in which he produced a 3.63 ERA. Our computer math model is projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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10-26-23 | Bucs v. Bills UNDER 43.5 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 43.5 or 44 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Buffalo Bills, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 teams have combined to play 13 games this season and only 4 of those have gone Over the total. We expect another low scoring game on Thursday night. Tampa games are averaging just 34 total points this season and Buffalo games are averaging 45 total points. The Bucs offense has been below average all season long ranking 23rd or lower in total offense, scoring offense, and YPP average. They have scored 13 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games. We expect them to struggle vs a Buffalo defense that entered last week’s game vs New England ranked 12th in total defense but played poorly. They allowed a poor New England offense to average over 6.6 YPP and score 29 points. It was the worst performance from a Buffalo defense that has been solid for the most part all season including holding a dynamic Miami offense to just 20 points. We expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder on that side of the ball Thursday night. The Bills offense has been trending down since their win over Miami. Since scoring 48 vs the Fins, this offense has put up 20, 14, and 25 points the last 3 weeks. Even last week when they scored 25 points, 2 of those TD’s came on their final 2 possessions of the game when they were playing catch up. Prior to their final 2 offensive possessions, the Bills had 10 points and only 230 total yards. They’ve be facing a decent Tampa defense that’s rated higher than 2 of Buffalo’s last 3 opponents. The Bills are one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL, 30th in plays per second, and TB ranks middle of the pack in that category. NFL prime time Unders (Sunday night, Monday night, and Thursday night games) have been fantastic with a 133-85-4 spanning the last 5+ years (61% Unders). It looks a bit windy in Buffalo on Thursday evening with sustained winds around 10 MPH and gusts up to 20 MPH. Under is the play on Thursday. |
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10-26-23 | Georgia State v. Georgia Southern OVER 63.5 | Top | 27-44 | Win | 100 | 42 h 46 m | Show |
#113/114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 63.5 Points – Georgia State vs Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET - When these 2 met last season, they total was 67.5 and they scored 74 points on nearly 1,000 total yards of offense. We look for a similar situation on Thursday night. Georgia Southern has been very solid offensively this season averaging 32 PPG but even better at home where they put up 40 PPG on 6.0 YPP. The Eagles are a fast paced team (22nd in the country) and they average a whopping 81 plays per game which is 2nd in the nation. Their strength on offense is throwing the ball with their QB Brin who has already thrown for 2100 yards on the season. They rank 12th nationally averaging 313 YPG passing and that plays directly into the weakness off the Georgia State defense which ranks 122nd in pass defense. Georgia State is more balanced but very solid running the ball (177 YPG) as well as passing (233 YPG) with veteran QB Grainger running the show. The Panthers are coming off a lower scoring game vs Louisiana as they upset the Rajin’ Cajuns 20-17. That final has kept this total lower than it should be in our opinion. Their total in last week’s game was set at 62 as well despite the fact that when comparing Louisiana to this week’s opponent (Georgia Southern) the Cajuns rank lower in total offense and higher in total defense along with being a much slower paced team. The only other game that Georgia State struggled offensively was vs Troy who’s defense ranks 8th in the nation. The Panthers scored at least 30 points in each of their other 5 games this season. We look for a high possession, fast paced game here similar to last year when the 2 teams ran 79 and 77 offensive snaps. The weather looks perfect in Statesboro with temps in the upper 50’s and light winds under 5 MPH. High scoring here. |
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10-26-23 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Clearly this is a big marquee match up of two of the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference this season and both have made big news in the offseason. The Bucks made a blockbuster trade and brought in Damian Lillard, the 76ers were dealing with distractions in James Harden. A great side story to this game is the new head coaches for both teams. The 76ers brought in former Raptors coach Nick Nurse (I desperately wanted the Bucks to hire him) while the Bucks hired first time head coach Adrian Griffin. Griffin was an assistant under Nurse in Toronto and won a ring in 2019. In regard to tonight’s game. The Bucks may have an adjustment period with Dame in the lineup with Giannis as you have two Alpha males that averaged over 31PPG a season ago. The 76ers played without Harden enough though so they really won’t have a tough time adjusting in this opener. The Bucks were 33-11 SU at home a season ago with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. Philadelphia had the second-best road record a year ago at 29-18 SU with a plus/minus of +2.9PPG. The Underdog covered 3 of four last year in this series as every game but one was close. In fact, the dog won 3 of the four outright. This Sixers roster is still very good with a budding star in Maxey, an MVP candidate in Embiid and solid vets as a supporting cast in Beverley, Harris and Tucker. A sneaky good addition to the roster is Kelly Oubre Jr who can be a game changer when motivated. We like the veteran coach to have the upper hand tonight in what should be a close game throughout. Grab the points. |
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10-26-23 | Ducks v. Bruins -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
#42 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals -115) over Anaheim Ducks, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET -The Bruins are 6-0 this season and only one of the 6 victories was by less than 2 goals. Boston's average margin of victory this season is exactly 2 goals and they are allowing just 1 goal per game. Conversely, the Ducks are 2-4 this season but, other than 1 high-scoring win, Anaheim has been held to scoring just 1.4 goals per game in their other 5 games. We simply can not envision the Ducks being able to do much in the offensive zone in this one given those numbers plus the way the Bruins have been playing. That said, this one is likely another dominating Boston win and we look for the Bruins to improve to 7-0 with another victory by a multi-goal margin. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Boston at a small money price in this one is the value play here. |
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10-25-23 | Celtics -3 v. Knicks | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* BOSTON CELTICS -3 at NY Knicks – 7:10 PM ET - If you missed our Futures bet article, we had the Celtics over their win total this season. The Celtics went through a major overhaul of their roster BUT the players they brought in are selfless and will conform to the Boston way much quicker than others might. That’ the genius of GM Brad Stevens who knows he had a core to get to a Championship series, he just needed a few other parts to win it all. Those key pieces are Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. This team won’t miss a beat and will open the season with a big win over the rival Knicks. Including the playoffs, the Celtics were 31-19 SU on the road with an average +/- of +2.9PPG which was best in the league. New York pretty much stood pat with their roster in the offseason with a team that went 47-35 SU and owned the 7th best overall Margin of Victory of +2.9PPG. Boston and New York were very similar in terms of offensive efficiency with both ranking in the top 4 but defensively it wasn’t close as the Celtics finished the year 3rd in DEFF while the Knicks were 19th. The Knicks beat the C’s 3 straight in the series, all as underdogs but we like Boston to open this season with a W. |
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10-24-23 | Lakers +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-119 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on: LA Lakers +5.5 at Denver Nuggets – 7:30PM ET - The Nuggets swept the Lakers out of the Playoffs last season, but all four games were decided by 11-points or less. Three of the four games had a final margin of 6-points or less. A couple things we know for certain tonight, which we may not know in the regular season, is that LeBron and Anthony Davis are both eager to play. Nuggets head coach Malone had some things to say about the Lakers after they swept them last season and apparently the Lakers took offense. In reality, talk is cheap, and that motivation will only last early in the game and then it’s business as usual. We do like the Lakers' improvements to their roster. Gabe Vincent gives them another playmaking guard that can shoot. Cam Reddish and Taurean Prince add to their depth along with Christian Wood. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road a season ago with an average plus/minus of -2.1PPG. Denver was 34-7 SU at home in the regular season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. The Lakers made solid strides in the second half of the season, especially defensively as they finished the year allowing just 1.140-points per possession. The Nuggets lost two key components to their roster with the departure of Bruce Brown and Jeff Green while the Lakers got stronger with their additions. Don’t be surprised if LA wins this game outright. |
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10-24-23 | New Mexico State +2.5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
#101 ASA TOP PLAY ON New Mexico State +2.5 over Louisiana Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We like to take a strong look at underdogs that have a better rushing attack and we expect to control the trenches. That’s what we have here. La Tech is a poor rushing team that has been outgained on the ground in every game but one this season. If we take out their game vs FCS opponent Northwestern State, the Bulldogs only average 109 YPG rushing (108th nationally) on only 3.5 YPC. On the other side of the ball their rush defense is poor as well ranking 119th in the country allowing 200 YPG on the ground 5.0 YPC. That’s despite facing a fairly easy slate of rush offenses including 3 teams outside the top 100 in rushing. La Tech has faced 2 teams ranked inside the top 50 in rushing this year, Nebraska and North Texas, and those 2 teams rolled up 312 and 249 yards on the ground respectively. Tuesday they host a NM State team that ranks 2nd in the nation averaging 6.1 yards per carry and puts up over 200 YPG on the ground. Despite their success on the ground, the Aggies are not one dimensional as they pass for over 235 YPG as well and average a whopping 7.0 YPP which is 5th in the nation behind only Washington, Oregon, LSU, and USC. The Aggies record is 5-3 yet they’ve outgained all but 1 opponent (Liberty who is 7-0) on a YPP basis. NM State has a YPP differential of +1.3 and they are well coached under former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill. Their defense isn’t great, but it’s respectable allowing 5.7 YPP. Since their bye in late September, NMSU has won 3 in a row by an average margin of +17 PPG covering all 3. La Tech has been a home favorite only 7 times since the start of the 2020 season and they have covered only 2 of those games. During that same time span they have played 15 home games (FBS only) and they have a SU record of 7-8 in those games. We like the dog to win this game outright. |
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10-24-23 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
#7/8 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals (-110) - Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Lightning simply are not the same team without goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. He is currently on long-term injured reserve after having back surgery last month. Without Vasilevskiy, the Lightning have already shown a strong trend toward overs this season. It makes sense as their goalie options without him are Jonas Johansson and Matt Tomkins. The Bolts have a goals against average of 4.00 on the season and the Lightning have just 2 wins in 6 games so far. Tampa Bay has scored quite well though and this is particularly true on home ice where they are averaging 4 goals scored per game this season. Overall, 5 of 6 Tampa Bay games have totaled at least 7 goals and the only one that did not was against a Sabres team that has now seen 5 of its 6 games finish under the total this season. Now the Lightning take on a goal-happy Hurricanes team. Indeed Carolina is scoring at a high rate this season as well. The problem for the Canes is they are also conceding goals at a high rate too. This is why all 6 of the Hurricanes games this season have gone over the total! The crazy thing is that Carolina's games are not just going over the total, they are truly flying over the total with authority! Their 6 games have averaged 9.5 goals in regulation time and there is certainly nothing "average" about NHL games averaging 9.5 goals apiece! Look for the high-scoring trend to continue here. We are aware of the Hurricanes having some injury issues but one of those is goalie Frederik Andersen and, even if he plays, he would be rusty here and not 100%! Also, just like the other two Canes goalies this season, Andersen has not been impressive between the pipes. Over is our play here. |
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10-23-23 | 49ers -7 v. Vikings | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Francisco 49ers -7 at Minnesota Vikings 8:20 PM ET - Let’s start with the fact that the 49ers are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL while the Vikings are one of the worst. San Franisco is 2nd in the league in rushing attempts and 7th in yards per rush at 4.5 per carry. The Vikings are 32nd in rushing attempts per game and 21st in yards per rush at 4.0. You simply cannot be one-dimensional against a defense of this Niners caliber and expect to compete. Not to mention, the Vikings are without their best overall offensive player in WR Jefferson. San Francisco rates top 10 in most offensive and defensive categories while the Vikings rank around league average or worse. The Niners have some injuries on offense, but this loaded roster can overcome those shortcomings. The Vikings cannot. It’s well documented how Minnesota QB Cousins has struggled on MNF with a 2-10 SU record. Not only is his Monday night record bad, but his yards per game passing, interception rate and touchdown percentage, are also much worse. San Francisco is coming off a loss and are 7-4 ATS their last eleven in that situation, 3-1 ATS their last four with an average margin of victory in those games of +7.8PPG. Lastly, the 49ers were just favored by -8.5 points at the Browns who have the best defense in the NFL and are now laying less at the middle of the pack Vikings. |
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10-23-23 | Rangers +113 v. Astros | Top | 11-4 | Win | 113 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
#933 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers +110 over Houston Astros, Monday at 8:03 PM ET - Look at the two lines today and tell us nothing is "fishy" here with this one! The fact is one could argue that the Astros, at least based on stats so far in this post-season for the pitchers involved here, have the bigger pitching advantage today than the Phillies. In that NLCS match-up, Nola has been great but Kelly is also a solid starter. That said, how are the Phillies nearly a $2 favorite but this line is almost a pick'em when Javier has a 1.69 ERA in the post-season and Scherzer has an 11.25 ERA in the post-season? Yes...we are saying the same thing here! How is this possible? Well the fact is if you look at the prior match-up between these two starters, Scherzer had trouble with 4 Astros hitters while Javier gave up hits to 3 Rangers hitters. In other words, the difference was not so great! That said, look at other factors here like the fact that the road team has incredibly won all 6 games in this series! In fact, the road team is now 9-0 in the Astros last 9 post-season games! This is a huge Game 7 and yet this line seems funny to us and we look for that road team trend to reach 10 in a row as Houston is eliminated from the post-season. Texas delivering that huge 9th inning to put the finishing touches on a huge Game 6 win is absolutely going to carry momentum into Game 7 as well. Texas believes even more now and they can win this thing! Take the Rangers |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -2.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
#472 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re siding with the Eagles at home in a very solid situational spot in our opinion. We’re getting one of the top teams in the NFL, at home, and coming off a loss as a favorite. Philly lost @ NY Jets last Sunday 20-14 but they dominated the flyboys in the stat sheet. The Birds outgained the Jets by over 100 yards and by +1.0 YPP. They lost the turnover battle 4-0 which was the difference in the game despite dominating the stats. The Jets scored half their points off Philly turnovers including an 8 yard TD drive with under 2:00 minutes remaining after the Eagles turned the ball over with the lead. We think Miami is overvalued based on their blowout wins vs bad teams. Since beating the LA Chargers by 2 points to open the season on a late TD the Miami wins have come vs New England, Denver, NY Giants, and Carolina. Those 4 teams have a combined record of just 3-21! The one high level team Miami played this year @ Buffalo, the Fins were destroyed 48-20. Miami has great offensive stats, but again, their opponents have been weak and their 70-20 win over Denver (Fins had over 700 total yards) is really making their overall stats look better than they actually are. They’ve already faced 3 of the bottom 6 defenses in the NFL. Philly’s defense is solid ranked in the top 10. Speaking of top 10, the Eagles are one of only 4 teams (SF, KC, Detroit, and Philly) that are ranked in the top 10 in both total offense and defense. We like this defense (#2 in the NFL allowing 65 YPG) to slow down Miami’s #1 rushing attack (181 YPG) and make the Fins one dimensional which is key. On the other side, Philly’s offense (#2 in the NFL) should have success running the ball vs a Miami defense thar ranks 20th vs the run and 20th in total defense. This will be just the 3rd home game for Philadelphia this season (2-0 so far) and they’ve won 14 of their last 17 home games. We like them to win this one by at least a FG. |
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10-22-23 | Packers v. Broncos OVER 45 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
#469/470 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Both teams have had extra time to prepare, Green Bay off a bye and Denver played on Thursday night, and we expect both offenses to click. The Broncos defense is historically poor to this point in the season ranking dead last in scoring defense, total defense, and YPP allowed. Only 15% of drives vs this Denver defense have gone 3 and out which is by far the lowest in the league and they’ve allowed at least 28 points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Green Bay offense struggled in their most recent game vs Las Vegas, however coming off a bye they are getting healthy on that side of the ball. RB Jones is back, they are getting healthier on the Oline and at the WR position. Jones makes a huge difference in the run & pass game and in the 2 games he played this season, the Packers scored 58 total points. Offensively the Broncos have been solid this season. They are 5th in the NFL averaging 5.9 YPP and 4th putting up 4.9 YPC on the ground. Denver will have success on the ground vs a Green Bay defense that is allowing 143 YPG rushing and 42.5% of the yardage allowed by Green Bay has been via rushing, the highest rate in the league. Meanwhile the Denver rushing attack has been explosive ranking 2nd in the NFL in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (15.6%). That ground game will open up Russell Wilson and their passing attack. We’re getting perfect weather for this one with light winds, sunny, and temps in the low 70s. We like the match up for both offenses here and this one goes Over. |
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10-22-23 | Falcons +3 v. Bucs | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
#451 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - If we were to give you the stats of last week’s Falcons/Commanders game after the fact, we’re pretty sure you would have bet a large sum of money on Atlanta. The Falcons outgained the Commanders 402 total yards to 193 and 5.1YPP to 4.3YPP but still lost 16-24. Atlanta had a +13 minute time of possession advantage too but 3 turnovers to 0 was too much for the Birds to overcome. Tampa Bay’s offense was exposed last week by the Lions in a 6-20 loss at home where they managed just 251 total yards of offense and 4.7YPP. The Bucs offense ranks 25th in total yards per game (291) gained and yards per play 4.9YPP. Tampa is one dimensional on offense with a rushing attack that averages just 3.0YPC which is last in the league. The Bucs will have a tough time scoring in this game with a running game that generates very little success rate and a passing O that will be facing a Falcons pass D that is 4th in the league. Atlanta allows just 179PYPG and ranks 11th in opposing QB’s completion percentage. Atlanta runs for 119YPG which is 10th best in the NFL. QB Ridder has thrown for over 630 total yards in the Falcons last two games with 3 TD/3INT’s. Atlanta has a net yards per play differential of +0.3YPP compared to the Bucs negative differential of minus -0.3YPP. The Falcons should be a rush-doubling underdog in this one which is one of the stronger NFL angles dating back to the mid-1980’s |
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10-21-23 | Appalachian State v. Old Dominion OVER 55 | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
#353/354 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 55 Points - Appalachian State at Old Dominion, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We expect a high scoring game between these two Sun Belt schools. Last season when these same two teams met, they produced only 41-points, but they amassed 892 total yards with App State converting 7.8 yards per play, ODU was just under 6.0YPP. Neither defense is very good as Old Dominion ranks 89th in yards per point defense, App State is worse, ranking 98th. The Mountaineers really struggle to stop the run allowing 5.4 yards per rush (123rd) and they haven’t faced a rushing attack as good as this ODU’s. In fact, you could argue App State’s rush D is even worse than the number indicated as two of the offenses they’ve faced this season rank 94th or worse. Old Dominion is 19th in the country in rushing yards per attempt at 5.4 and should gouge this Neer’s defense overland. On the flip side, ODU struggles to stop the pass and Appalachian State is very capable of hitting big plays with their passing attack. App State is averaging 11.7 yards per completion and average 266.7 passing YPG. The Monarchs rank 114th in opponents’ completion percentage at 64.9%, 100th in completions and 86th in passing YPG allowed. Those numbers come against a soft schedule of teams that don’t pass well too. These offenses both rank top 50 in yards per play offensively and ODU is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation. App State isn’t slow either as they average a play run every 24.87 seconds which is 44th fastest. Easy call on the Over in this one. |
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10-21-23 | UTSA v. Florida Atlantic +3 | Top | 36-10 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
#348 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Atlantic +2.5 over UTSA, Saturday at 6 PM ET - UTSA is still getting priced too high in the market in our opinion. Our power ratings have FAU as a slight favorite at home in this game. The Roadrunners were very good last season with an 11-3 overall record and it seems the oddsmakers are still relying on last year’s results to set numbers this season. UTSA is just 3-3 on the year and only 2-4 ATS. They did miss their starting QB Harris for 2 games this season but the offense hasn’t been great with him in the lineup. The Roadrunners are coming off back to back deceivingly easy wins which sets this one up nicely. They beat Temple and UAB handily each of the last 2 weeks but UTSA was outgained in both of those games. Those 2 opponents have a combined 4-10 record and turned the ball over 5 times in those 2 games (UTSA had 1 turnover). This FAU team is also 3-3 on the season but they’ve played the tougher schedule already facing road games @ Clemson and @ Illinois. The Owls are improving and seem to be peaking under new HC Herman (former Texas head coach) and they are finally looking comfortable with his new schemes. Since getting rolled @ Clemson in September, the Owls have covered 3 straight and won the last 2 SU vs Tulsa and South Florida. Last week they played their most complete game of the season rolling over a decent USF team who lost to Bama this year by only 7 points. In last week’s game, FAU was a 2 point dog on the road @ South Florida and won 56-14 putting up almost 600 yards on 7.5 YPP. QB Richardson, former Central Michigan starter, took over for an injured starter (Thompson) after the Clemson loss and he’s impressed with almost 800 yards passing, a 67% completion rate, and 5 TD’s in those 3 starts. He’s been getting help from his running game as well with FAU topping 200 yards rushing in each of the last 2 games. The Owls have played the strong strength of schedule and still have a better YPP differential and point differential when compared to UTSA. This Florida Atlantic team is playing their best football of the season and getting points at home vs a UTSA team that has been throwing up some false final scores as of late. Take the points with the home team. |
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10-21-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -12 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
#368 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -12 over Eastern Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We’ve been anti EMU all season long and for good reason. The Eagles have a 4-3 record but that record is as deceiving as it gets. Their wins have come vs Howard (FCS), Kent (we have power rated 133rd – last in FBS), UMass (power rated 129th) and Ball State (power rated 121st). In last week’s 28-14 win vs Kent, the Eagles were actually outgained 343 to 218 by a Golden Flashes team that was getting outgained by an average of 221 to 460 coming into that game. EMU benefitted from 3 Kent turnovers including a pick 6. That’s vs a Kent team that had been outscored 202-42 in their 6 games vs FBS opponents this season. So EMU was facing what was the worst team in college football, they were outplayed by a lot on the stat sheet, and it was a home game for Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have been outgained in each of their wins (except Howard) by teams we have rated in the bottom 10 to 15 in college football. They are now on the road vs a NIU team that has been playing very well. Last week the Huskies beat a very good Ohio team (rated 2nd best team in the MAC) by 10 points and outgained them by +1.2 YPP. A week prior to that they roasted Akron 55-14 and before that lost @ Toledo (#1 team in the MAC) by just 2 points. The Husky defense has been solid all year ranking in the top 25 in both total defense and YPP allowed. They will have no problem whatsoever vs an Eastern Michigan offense that has been brutal all season long. The Eagles rank outside the top 115 in scoring offense, total offense, rushing offense, and passing offense. NIU has played the much tougher schedule to date and the Huskies have a +0.5 YPP differential while EMU has a -1.4 YPP differential. Northern controlled the trenches last week vs a top notch Ohio defense (130 yards rushing to 95 for Ohio) and they should own the line of scrimmage again this week. The Huskies rushing attack has really kicked it in gear over the last 4 games averaging 215 YPG on the ground and they are facing an EMU defense that allows over 200 YPG rushing this season. Kent, who was averaging 79 YPG rushing entering last week, had 163 yards on the ground vs this Eagle defense. NIU is better, and quite a bit better, in every facet of the game. We’re getting a decent line here (lower than it should be) because EMU has a faulty record as we discussed. If Eastern wasn’t 9th in the nation in turnover margin (+1 per game) their record would look quite different. This should be a blowout. |
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10-20-23 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#911/912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros, Friday at 5:07 PM ET - This is high-intensity playoff baseball now with this ALCS now tied up at 2 games apiece as the Astors have rallied from down 2-0 to take both the games here in Arlington to tie this series up. That makes this a very critical Game 5 match-up and you have the same pitchers involved that we saw in Game 1 of this series. That game was a 2-0 Rangers win and, in all likelihood, this will be another tight low-scoring battle here! Verlander and Montgomery were great in that Game 1 battle and we expect more of the same here. Again, you are talking about both lineups possibly being a little tight at the plate in this one. With the series tied up at 2, there is a lot of pressure with the importance of taking this Game 5 as it is a "swing game" in the series. The 3-2 series lead is so critical in a 7-game series. Off 3 straight games that have totaled at least 9 runs with the last two totaling 13 runs each. However, this total is set at 8.5 with good reason. These lineups combined for only 11 hits in Game 1 and we anticipate another pitchers duel here as both Verlander and Montgomery have looked great in their multiple outings in this post-season. Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here and even if it gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints -116 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -116 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints -115 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Jags QB Lawrence has a banged up knee and may not play in this game. They just moved QB Nathan Rourke up from the practice squad so he is available on Thursday night. That might be a sign that Lawrence may not play or at the very least is not close to 100%. Either way we like this spot for the host Saints. The Jags are in a terrible situational spot for this game. They spent 2 weeks in London, came back and played the following Sunday at home vs Indy and now are on the road again on a short week. Many of the Jacksonville players were commenting on how tough it was physically to come back from a longer than normal stint in London and have to play right away the following weekend. How are they going to feel now away from home on a short week coming right after that? The Jags are overvalued right now in our mind. They won both games on London but were outgained in both on a YPP basis 5.0 to 4.7 vs the Falcons and 7.2 to 5.8 vs the Bills. The same thing happened last week as they were outgained by a full 1.0 YPP vs the Colts and won. Turnovers have been key as the Jaguars have a +6 TO margin in those 3 games alone. They have a takeaway on 20.3% of their opponents possessions this year which is 2nd in the NFL. Can that continue? It’s going to be tough to keep up that pace on turnovers which has helped them immensely this season. The Saints are coming off a loss @ Houston in a game they outplayed the Texans soundly. New Orleans put up 430 total yards in the loss to just 297 for Houston. Mistakes were the difference in that one as the Saints missed 2 FG’s, were shut out on downs at the Houston 15 yard line, and threw an interception at the Houston 24 yard line. The Jags offense has been held under 5.0 YPP in 2 of their last 3 games and they are possibly without their QB facing a New Orleans defense that allows only 4.6 YPP (4th best in the NFL). For the season, New Orleans are 3-3 with a YPP differential of +0.04 (14th in the NFL) and a point differential of +13. Jacksonville is 4-2 yet their YPP differential is -0.75 which is 26th in the NFL with a point differential of +20. The Saints are sitting right about where we’d expect with those numbers while Jacksonville is vastly overvalued as we stated earlier. Lay the small money line price with New Orleans at home. |
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10-19-23 | Astros v. Rangers -110 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -110 over Houston Astros, Thursday at 8:03 PM ET - Our money is on the Rangers to bounce back here after losing Game 3 at home yesterday. Texas had won all 7 of their post-season games before that loss. Andrew Heaney expected to start for Texas in this one and he held the Astros to only 3 earned runs on just 9 hits in 15 innings in his first 3 starts against them this season. Then he struggled some in the final start versus Houston so he is out for redemption here and we see him getting that! Heaney had a solid outing, though not long, against the Orioles in the divisional round and we expect another solid effort here. We also look for Jose Urquidy to struggle here. He missed a lot of this season so Urquidy also missed facing the Rangers but in his last two starts against them, both last season, he allowed 8 earned runs in 11 innings! Urquidy has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts against Texas! The Rangers were 51-31 at home this season prior to yesterday's loss. Our computer math model shows a high probability the home team gets the win here in Game 4. Take the Rangers |
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10-19-23 | James Madison v. Marshall OVER 49 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
#313/314 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – James Madison vs Marshall, Thursday at 7 PM ET - JMU’s offense has been on a tear averaging 35 PPG on the season. If you take out their game vs a top notch Troy defense (16-14 final score), the Dukes have scored more than 30 in every other game with an average of 38 PPG. They should have big time success here vs a Marshall defense that has allowed 35, 48, and 41 points over their last 3 games and 2 of those opponents rank 84th (Old Dominion) and 109th (NC State) in total offense. The Herd defense put up solid numbers in their first 3 games of the season but their opponents were University of Albany (FCS), East Carolina (127th in scoring), and Virginia Tech (78th in scoring). Marshall is going to have to put points on the board to keep up in this game. We think they will. They are averaging 420 YPG and just over 30 PPG. The Herd offense is trending up with 106 points scored in their last 3 games (35 PPG) while averaging 447 total yards vs 3 defense that combined to allow an average of 380 YPG. Marshall’s strength offensively is throwing the ball averaging 265 YPG and completing almost 69% of their passes (21st nationally). They are facing a JMU defense who’s weakness is defending the pass allowing 310 YPG through the air which ranks them 129th out of 133 teams. Last week they “held” a potent Georgia Southern offense to 13 points, however the Eagles threw for over 300 yards but threw 3 interceptions in JMU territory including at the 15 and 23 yard line. GSU had plenty of opportunities to put points on the board. Marshall games are averaging 59 total points this season and JMU games are averaging 56 total points. This is set to low and we like the Over. |
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10-18-23 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros, Wednesday at 8:03 PM ET - The Astros Cristian Javier has great stuff when he is on and, though he issued some walks, his stuff looked great in his first start of this post-season against the Twins. This followed him finishing up the regular season with allowing just 4 earned runs in 15.2 innings.over his last 3 starts. Overall, Javier has now allowed only 10 hits in his last 20.2 innings on the mound! We also are looking for a strong start from Max Scherzer. Here you have a veteran hurler pitching at home and looking for redemption for his lone post-season start with the Mets last season being an ugly one. Also looking to redeem himself after his most recent appearance against the Astros was an ugly one after Scherzer had a stellar outing in his start against Houston that preceded that one. Scherzer is coming back from a minor shoulder injury here so he may not work deep but we like this Rangers bullpen to also shut the door at home after a little bit of shakiness in hanging on in the Rangers 5-4 win at Houston in Game 2 of this series. That game did reach 9 runs (which is also the posted total on this game) but 6 of the Astros last 9 road games have totaled 8 or less runs. Those 9 road games have actually averaged only 6.8 runs per game! The Rangers 10 of last 12 games have totaled 8 or less runs and those 10 games averaged only 5.5 runs per game. We feel we have some excellent line value here as this total is inflated due to the big runs that were scored in the last regular season series here between these teams which was last month and saw the Astros sweep with huge run totals. This is playoff baseball now and per all of the above this one will, in all likelihood, be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here and even if it gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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10-18-23 | Florida International v. Sam Houston State -5 | Top | 33-27 | Loss | -109 | 40 h 29 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Sam Houston State -5 over Florida International, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Wait a minute. The 0-6 team is favored over the 3-4 team? Not only that, the winless team is favored by more than a FG. Hmmm. We agree SHSU should be favored at home in this one and we’ll side with them here. First these teams are heading in opposite directions right now. FIU had 3 game winning streak back in early to mid September and after that run they have lost 3 straight by a combined score of 99-37. They also failed to cover all 3 of those games by a combined 50 points! The Panthers were in a great spot to pick up a win at home last Thursday facing a bad UTEP team that was down to their 4th string QB. FIU lost that game by 13 points and were outgained by almost 100 yards. Despite their overall record, Sam Houston is 3-2-1 ATS on the season. Their offense was putrid the first 3 games but they faced some tough competition in BYU, Air Force, and Houston. The Bearkats only scored 10 total points in those 3 games. However, over their last 3 games this offense has improved dramatically scoring 57 points and averaging 377 YPG. That improvement should continue here vs an FIU defense that ranks 117th in total defense and 118th in YPP allowed. SHSU has played the much tougher schedule (58th SOS compared to 132nd for FIU) and this is just their 3rd home game of the season. They’ve played quite well in their other 2 home tilts losing to undefeated Air Force 13-3 holding the #1 rushing team in the nation 80 yards and 1.3 YPC below their averaging. In their other home game they lost in OT to Jacksonville State (5-2 record) but the Bearkats were +5 first downs and +40 yards in that game. This team is overdue for a win and they know this is one of the best shots. Look for a great effort and a win and cover from Sam Houston State. |
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10-17-23 | Hurricanes -1.5 v. Sharks | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
#75 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line (-1.5 goals -115) over San Jose Sharks, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - The Hurricanes are highly motivated after their first loss of the season and we knew we were going to come with a strong play here after that Canes loss. This Carolina team is again loaded this season while it looks like San Jose will be one of the weakest teams in the league again this season. Last season the Sharks finished with the fewest wins (22 out of 82 games) in the entire league while the Hurricanes were 2nd to only the Bruins in terms of best record in the entire league as the latter had a historical regular season. So far this season the Sharks are 0-1-1 but they should be 0-2-0 with two blowout losses as they lost their opener 4 to 1 and then lost their 2nd game by only 2-1 in the shootout but they were outshot in the game 52 to 21. Complete dominance! Speaking of dominance, a key to this play is that Carolina has already scored an average of 4.3 games in regulation time of their 3 games. This is a dangerous Hurricanes offensive attack once again. The Sharks, on the other hand, have scored just 1 goal in each of their first two games this season! Carolina is sure to respond off the Saturday loss and San Jose had seen 8 of their last 9 losses (dating back to last season) come by 2 or more goals before they were fortunate to hang around in the 2-1 loss to Colorado Saturday. They will not be so fortunate here against a determined and highly motivated road team. The Canes are a massive money line favorite (-300 on the road!) for a reason here and you can also see why the odds suggest a good probability that the winner of this game in San Jose will win it by 2 or more goals. Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Carolina at a very reasonable low price in this one is the value play here. |
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 8:07 PM ET - Merrill Kelly expected to start for the Diamondbacks and he is coming off 6 innings of shutout ball against the Dodgers in the NL Wild Card round. Also, Kelly has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 10 of his last 13 starts! This looks like a pitchers duel because Aaron Nola has great stuff and the veteran Phillies hurler has looked like vintage Nola of late! Nola loves pitching at home and he enters this game already 2-0 in the post-season and he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 straight starts overall. Also, the Phillies bullpen has been great in this post-season and the Dbacks bullpen also has been a pleasant surprise for Arizona fans so far in the playoffs. The reality is, the way these starting pitchers are going, neither team may need much bullpen here either! Overall, in terms of post-season trending so far, even though there were some bigger runs scored yesterday, if you look at all 3 ALCS/NLCS games so far they have averaged just 13 hits per game. So each team averaged about 6 or 7 hits per game. This one will, in all likelihood, be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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10-17-23 | Middle Tennessee State v. Liberty UNDER 57 | Top | 35-42 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
#301/302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 57 Points – Middle Tennessee State vs Liberty, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - MTSU has been facing all out passing teams as of late and that is their weakness defensively. 3 of their last 4 opponents are pass first offenses (CSU, La Tech, and WKY all rank 110th or lower in rush offense) while MTSU’s defense ranks outside the top 110 in pass defense. Now they face a Liberty offense that runs the ball more than pretty much anyone in the country. The Flames are 4th nationally in rush attempts per game and rushing play percentage. First of all that eats clock and secondly MTSU has been very solid vs the run. They are allowing 135 YPG rushing and only 3.9 YPC. Only 1 team has topped 200 yards on the ground vs the Blue Raider defense and that was Alabama in their season opener. They held SEC opponent Missouri to just 2.4 YPC and Jacksonville State (14th nationally in rushing) to only 3.6 YPC. Liberty will have success but we don’t think it will be easy. Offensively MTSU is not great to say the least. They rank 79th in YPP and 108th in scoring averaging only 22 PPG. Those numbers look even worse consider their last 5 opponents have been Murray State (FCS), Colorado State (131st in total defense), Western Kentucky (128th in total defense), Jacksonville St (67th in total defense), and La Tech (64th in total defense). Now they face a Liberty stop unit that ranks 18th nationally in total defense and 24th in YPP allowed. The Flames are giving up only 17 PPG and they’ve allowed just 35 total points their last 3 games. MTSU will struggle on offense in this one. Because they are primarily a running team, Liberty is very slow paced (117th in pace) as they like get ahead and control the tempo. That’s how we see this game playing out. Liberty games are averaging 53 total points per game and MTSU games are averaging 54 total points, both less than this current number. We see this game ending the high 40’s making Under the play. |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys -125 v. Chargers | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys -125 @ LA Chargers, Monday 8:15 PM ET - We will back the much better defense and Cowboys who are off an embarrassing loss to the 49ers last week. Dallas comes into this game ranked 8th in DVOA defense and the strength of the unit is their pass D which is the Chargers strength offensively. Dallas allows opposing QB’s to complete just 60.2% of their pass attempts which is 6th best in the league. The Cowboys hold opponents to 169 passing yards per game which is 2nd best in the NFL. The Chargers have the advantage offensively with a unit that is 5th in total yards per game gained and yards per play but this will be the best defense by far that they have faced this season. None of the Chargers opponents rank higher than 19th in the NFL in defensive DVOA so their offensive numbers are a bit misleading. Under Coach McCarthy the Cowboys are 10-1 ATS when coming off a loss and they’ve won those games by an average of +17.4PPG. Back the Boys here. |
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10-16-23 | Rangers +115 v. Astros | Top | 5-4 | Win | 115 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers +115 over Houston Astros, Monday at 4:37 PM ET - Many will jump on the Astros here thinking they simply can not fall into an 0-2 hole in this series by losing each of the first two games at home. However, this Rangers team is hungrier and sure looks like the better team in this match-up. Texas really has come a long way and it looks like it finally could be a changing of the guard in the Lone Star state. The Rangers got the 2-0 win yesterday and should dominate much more today! They have a big pitching edge with Nathan Eovaldi over Framber Valdez. Keep in mind, Houston actually had a losing record at home this season! The Astros certainly have not found their home field to be a fortress this year by any stretch of the imagination! As for the Rangers, their confidence has grown game by game as they finished the season strong and carried that momentum right into the post-season. Texas won 8 of their last 12 regular season games including 8 of 11 to wrap up their post-season berth before the regular season finale. Now in the post-season the Rangers have won 6 straight games! In 5 of those 6 victories they have allowed a total of only 4 runs or average of 0.80 runs per game! They are dominating with starters and bullpen! Speaking of that dominance, Eovaldi went 12-5 with a 3.63 ERA in the regular season and is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA so far in the post-season. The Astros Framber Valdez went just 4-8 at home this season and also enters this start off 3 straight rough outings! His final 2 of the regular season carried right into struggles in a 3rd straight game as his post-season outing was a loss to the Twins in which he allowed 5 earned runs in 4.1 innings! Look for a 4th straight rough outing for Valdez here and the Texas win streak continues and moves to 7 in a row! Take the Rangers |
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10-15-23 | Lions -3 v. Bucs | Top | 20-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -3 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - TB has been a surprise with a 3-1 record to start the season. However a deep dive reveals they are +7 in turnover margin in their 3 wins who have come vs Minnesota, Chicago, and New Orleans who have a combined record of 5-10. Despite their winning record, the Bucs are getting outgained on a YPP basis this season. The one good team they’ve faced was Philadelphia who rolled TB 25-11 and outgained them by 2.1 YPP and that game was in Tampa. The Lions had a lot of publicity coming into the season and we were wary of this team. Mainly on the defensive side of the ball after finishing 30th or lower in YPP allowed in each of the last 3 seasons. They’ve proven us wrong so far this season as this Detroit team looks very good on both sides of the ball. They are one of two teams that currently ranks inside the top 6 in both total offense and total defense. The other is San Francisco. DVOA has Detroit ranked as the 3rd best team in the NFL behind only San Francisco and Buffalo. They are ranked the 4th best offense and 3rd best defense per DVOA. The Lions only loss was in OT vs Seattle and the Lions outgained the Seahawks 6.5 YPP to 5.9 YPP in that game but had 3 turnovers (0 for Seattle). Detroit has one of the best YPP differentials in the NFL at +1.1 and they’ve been a money making juggernaut covering 13 of their last 15 games dating back to last season. Lay the FG here. |
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10-15-23 | Colts +4 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis Colts +4 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Just a terrible situational spot for Jacksonville. They just played back to back weeks in London so they’ve been overseas for 2 weeks. Coming home to play the next Sunday will be tough as the body clocks will take until mid week to adjust back. Also, being away for 2 weeks and then coming home is a distraction in itself having to get caught up on things back at home, seeing family again, etc… The Jags were 2-0 in their London trip but they were outgained in both games on a YPP basis vs Atlanta and Buffalo. In their win over the Falcons the Jaguars were gifted with 3 Atlanta turnovers, including a 61 yard pick 6, but Jacksonville only averaged 4.7 YPP. Last week vs Buffalo, they caught the Bills in a perfect spot after rolling over Miami a week earlier in a huge AFC East game. Then the Bills waited until Friday to travel to London while Jax had been their for a week plus already. Even with that, the Bills averaged 7.2 YPP while holding the Jags to 5.8. The Jags are 0-2 SU & ATS at home this year where they have very little home field advantage. As a starting QB, Trevor Lawrence is 0-5 ATS as a home favorite winning only 1 of those games outright. Indy is playing well right now. They’ve won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss coming vs the Rams in OT in a game the Colts ran 20 fewer offensive snaps and still took LA to overtime. These 2 met in the first game of the season and while Jacksonville won 31-21, the Colts were starting rookie QB Richardson in his first every start and Indy led 21-17 with just over 5 minutes remaining in the game. Both teams are 3-2 on the season but the Colts have a better point differential (although very close) and a better YPP differential. We think Indy has a very good shot at the upset and if not, we’re getting some generous points. |
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10-14-23 | Boise State v. Colorado State OVER 60 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
#183/184 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 60 Points – Boise State vs Colorado State, Saturday at 9:45 PM ET - We were on CSU vs Utah State Over last week and while the Rams offense didn’t perform as we expected, their defense did. CSU allowed the Aggies to roll up 44 points on 639 total yards! That side of the ball will be another huge concern here vs a Boise offense that can be every bit as explosive as Utah State. The Broncos have now topped 30 points in 4 straight games and their QB rotation of Green (dangerous dual threat) and Madsen (solid passer) has been tough to defend the last 2 games alone putting up 67 total points and over 1,000 yards! Boise’s offense has been a thorn in CSU’s side to say the least scoring an average of 42.3 PPG over the last 10 meetings. We see a similar outcome on Saturday. The problem the Broncos have had is on the other side of the ball. Their defense stinks. They rank 132nd (out of 133) allowing opponents to average almost 7.0 YPP. They’re terrible defending the pass ranking 125th nationally which is a big problem here facing a CSU offense that averaged 352 YPG through the air (4th best in the country). Boise is allowing 34 PPG on the season including giving up 31 points on 439 total yards to a bad San Diego State offense that ranks 122nd in scoring and averages 16 PPG. The only team that didn’t reach at least 27 points on this defense was UCF who had 18 points but also ripped off 530 total yards of offense which would normally yield 35 points based on UCF’s yards per point numbers this season. The Rams offense had one of the worst performances last week at USU and the game still almost hit 70 total points. They only ran 52 offensive plays in the game (Utah State ran 84 plays) and turned the ball over 5 times. CSU had 17 points in the first quarter and either turned the ball over on downs or had a turnover on 4 of their final 5 possessions. Prior to last week the Rams has scored at least 30 points in 3 straight games and we expect them to top that again here. Weather looks good in Fort Collins for Saturday night and we expect both teams to get into the 30’s here. Take the Over. |
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10-14-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 54.5 | Top | 24-36 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
#189/190 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54.5 Points – UCLA vs Oregon State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The oddsmakers continue to set UCLA totals too high (4-1 Under this season) as this is not the offensive juggernaut and poor defensive team they’ve been the last few seasons. In fact, the Bruins are now the exact opposite. Defense is absolutely the strength of this team. UCLA’s stop unit ranks in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense, total defense, YPP allowed, rushing YPG allowed, and YPC allowed. They have not given up more than 17 points in any game this season and they’ve allowed a grand total of 5 offensive TD’s in 5 games this season! Last week they held a very potent Washington State, who came into the game averaging 40 PPG on 472 YPG, to just 10 offensive points on 216 total yards. Offensively the Bruins are breaking in a new freshman QB Moore and vs FBS teams this season they are only averaging 23 PPG, more than 2 full TD’s down from last year’s numbers. And this year’s numbers have come against 3 defenses ranked 91st, 92nd, and 117th in total defense. The only good defense UCLA has faced is Utah (ranked 22nd in total defense) and the Utes held them to 7 points. Saturday’s opponent, Oregon State, will be the 2nd best defense UCLA has faced this season at 39th nationally. Oregon State’s offense has had some high scoring outputs but similarly to UCLA, they haven’t played a great slate of defenses. They’ve faced just 1 stop unit ranked in the top 60 in total defense this season and that was Utah once again (ranked 22nd) and that game ended 21-7 in favor of Oregon State. With the spread at -3.5 to -4 in favor of the Beavers, the final projected score in this game is in the 29-25 range. We don’t see either team reaching those totals. Under here. |
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10-14-23 | Wyoming v. Air Force -11 | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Air Force -11 over Wyoming, Saturday at 7 PM ET - There is a reason AF is favored by a full 10 points over a Wyoming team that currently has a 5-1 record. The Cowboys have been as lucky as you can get to reach that record this season. They’ve been outgained by an average of 52 YPG and their offense is one of the worst in college football averaging only 325 YPG (114th). They’ve had a favorable schedule with all home games with the exception of their game @ Texas, a 31-10 Wyoming loss, and in that game they caught the Longhorns the week after they beat Alabama on the road. They have not been on the road in full month and we think they’re running into a buzzsaw here. Air Force is 5-0 on the season and they are coming off a bye week. The Falcons rank #1 nationally averaging 330 YPG on the ground and they are facing a Wyoming defense that ranks 76th defending the run and 78th in YPC allowed. They’ve allowed at least 200 yards on the ground in 2 of their last 3 games and we think they’ll struggle to stop the rested Falcons here. The AF offense is humming scoring at least 39 points in every game but one this season. Defensively they’ve been elite ranking in the top 10 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, rushing YPG allowed, and passing YPG allowed. Wyoming will have trouble keeping up in this game with a poor offense vs that defense. This is also a revenger for Air Force after losing by 3 points @ Wyoming last year as a -16.5 point favorite. The Cowboys are playing for the 7th consecutive week and are off an upset home win over Fresno State (Wyoming was +6 at home in that game). The Falcons have won every game this season by double digits by an average score of 37-12. They have quietly won 19 of their last 22 games with 15 of those wins coming by at least 10 points. Lay it. |
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10-13-23 | Fresno State v. Utah State OVER 57 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 53 h 20 m | Show |
#179/180 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 57 Points – Fresno State vs Utah State, Friday at 8 PM ET - We were on the CSU vs Utah State Over last week and cashed nicely. We’re coming right back on the Over with USU at home again this week. The Aggies offense is humming right now to say the least. They put up 44 points last week on 639 total yards and were quite balanced doing it (387 yards passing / 252 yards rushing). In their last 3 games the USU offense has tallied 114 points (39 PPG) on nearly 1,600 total yards. Senior QB Legas, who began the season as the starter, stepped in for an injured Hillestad and has been outstanding with almost 600 yards passing and 7 TD’s in the last 6 quarters! They’re taking on a Fresno defense that’s not nearly as good as their overall numbers in our opinion. They rank in the top 15 in total defense but they’ve faced just an atrocious set of offenses to date. They’ve faced 4 FBS offenses this season that rank outside the top 95 in total offense including 3 that rank 110th or lower. That includes a Kent offense that ranks dead last nationally in many categories including total offense. The best FBS offense they’ve faced this season is Purdue (63rd in total offense) who hit them for 35 points. FCS Eastern Washington also had 30+ points on this defense. We look for USU to be successful putting points on the board. The Aggies will be the highest ranked offense Fresno has faced this season. Fresno’s offense should be successful as well. The Bulldogs had scored at least 27 points in every game this season prior to last week’s 19 point output vs a very good Wyoming defense that struggled with Texas & Texas Tech but has shut everyone else down. The USU defense ranks outside the top 100 allowing 33 PPG and they’ve allowed at least 24 points in every game this year including vs Iowa and UConn who rank 131st and 108th respectively in total offense. Because they are so potent offensively and struggle on defense USU games are averaging 70 total points this season. These teams have combined to play 12 games this season and 9 have gone Over the total and we expect another high scoring game on Friday Night. |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 47 | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 47 Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 PM ET - This line opened 51 at some books and was quickly bet down to the current number. We will grab that added value and side with the Bookmakers number in this AFC West rivalry. Let’s start with the Broncos defense that has the worst statistical DVOA numbers in the HISTORY of the NFL. The Bronco give up over 450YPG (32nd), 7.2YPP (32nd), 187RYPG (30th) and 5.9-yards per rush (32nd). They allow opposing QB’s to complete 77.3% of their pass attempts, also last in the NFL, and give up 11.1 yards per competition. Now consider this. Those horrific overall numbers, but specifically passing stats come against four of five bad QB’s in: Sam Howell, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Jimmy Garappolo. Now they face Patrick Mahomes who is arguably the best QB in the game and a guy building a Hall of Fame resume. KC owns a top ranked offense in many statistical categories including: Yards Per Game, Yards Per Play, Rushing Yards per attempt etc… The Chiefs are averaging 25.6PPG, while the Broncos are allowing 36.2PPG. The Broncos are allowing 1 point scored per every 12.4 yards gained by opponents. Based on the fact KC averages 381YPG that translates to 30.7 points for the Chiefs. Denver is going to score here too. They average 328YPG but more importantly, 6.1YPP which rates 5th best in the NFL. They average 4.9 Yards per rush (4th) and are 13th in overall passing yards per game. They own the 10th highest scoring offense in the NFL at 24.2PPG and rank 7th best in Yards Per Point at 13.0. Last season these two teams combined for 51 and 64 total points in the two meetings. Bet this number before the line trends back up. |
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10-12-23 | SMU v. East Carolina UNDER 49.5 | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
#117/118 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 49.5 Points – SMU vs East Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - ECU’s offense is bad. They have not topped 14 offensive points in any game this season with the exception of their game vs FCS Gardner Webb. The Pirates did have 28 points vs App State, however 14 of those points came from defensive fumble returns for TD’s. Minus their game vs Gardner Webb, the Pirates are averaging just 4.2 YPP which ranks them 129th nationally out of 133 teams. They’ll be facing an SMU defense that has been very good this season allowing opponents to average only 4.9 YPP ranking them in the top 30. The only team that really played well vs SMU offensively was TCU who put up 34 points. Even when they faced Oklahoma, the Mustangs defense held the Sooners to 28 points and 365 total yards which was a season low in yardage for OU. We expect ECU to struggle again on offense. On the other side of the ball, SMU’s offense isn’t nearly as explosive as it was last season. They are averaging just 25 PPG vs FBS opponents after putting up 36 PPG last season. On a YPP basis the Stangs rank just 73rd averaging 5.3 after ranking in the top 35 last year at 5.9 YPP. ECU’s defense has at least been respectable, unlike their offense, ranking 72nd nationally allowing 387 YPG despite playing very good offenses Michigan & App State so far this season. ECU games have topped 50 total points only once in 5 games this season. SMU games have topped 52 points only once in 5 games this season. With SMU tabbed as a 12 point favorite the projected score is right around 31-19 range. We don’t see either team reaching those totals so we’ll go Under in this one. |
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10-11-23 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
#937/938 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 9:07 PM ET - Bradon Pfaadt got rocked by the Brewers at Milwaukee to open up his post-season. Pfaadt is a rookie that struggled quite often this season and that was particularly true against playoff-caliber teams. The Dodgers are one of the top teams in baseball even though down 2-0 in this series and they should hammer Pfaadt here just like they did in the regular season meetings with him. The good news for Diamondbacks fans here is that Arizona has been swinging hot bats and should match LA run for run in this one. The Diamondbacks have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in winning all 4 games this post-season. The Dodgers are starting Lance Lynn and the veteran has post-season experience of course but he is just not the same pitcher he once was. Lynn was rejuvenated by coming to the Dodgers from the White Sox soon after the All Star break. However, his ERA went back up in September compared to August and walks and homers were an issue. Now he faces a red hot Arizona lineup that is loaded with confidence. Lynn gave up 26 homers in his 16 road starts this season and that includes 6 in his most recent 3 road starts for the Dodgers. Overall, Lynn was rocked in 2 of his last 3 road starts. Also, his last 2 starts against teams that ended up making the post-season - Marlins and Braves - saw him allow a combined 15 earned runs in 9 innings! The Dbacks will stay hot at the plate here but the Dodgers are in do or die mode and have the confidence of having already given Pfaadt a lot of trouble this season and the rookie struggles again here. Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with more than a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this late evening match-up Wednesday |
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10-11-23 | UTEP v. Florida International -123 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -123 | 42 h 33 m | Show |
#108 ASA PLAY ON FIU pick-em over UTEP, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - UTEP has only 1 win on the season vs Incarnate Word and we don’t expect them to get their 2nd on the road on Wednesday. Too many injury issues including QB where as of this writing on Tuesday, 4th stringer McConnell is expected to get the nod. Starting QB Hardison has an injury to his throwing arm and has not practiced since getting injured on September 23rd. The 2nd and 3rd string QB’s are both in concussion protocol. It also looks like top WR Smith won’t play here due to a leg injury. Even when they were healthy at QB, the Miners 5 losses have come by an average of 17 PPG. Now with McConnell playing in his 2nd career game (he was 4 of 11 for 48 yards passing last week in relief) we don’t think UTEP does enough on offense to win this game on the road. FIU is no great shakes but they do have a 3-3 record with their wins coming vs Maine, UConn, and North Texas. However they are relatively healthy compared to UTEP and freshman QB Jenkins (had an offer from Auburn) has been improving each week. He got his first start vs Maine, FIU is 3-2 with him at QB, and he’s thrown for over 1,200 yards. The Panthers only 2 losses with Jenkins at QB have come vs Liberty (currently 5-0 prior to Tuesday night’s game) and New Mexico State, a game that was tied in the 4th quarter and the yardage was close to even. Neither team has great stats, as to be expected, however FIU has the better YPP differential at -0.3 compared to UTEP’s -1.0. It’s always dangerous laying points (or pick-em) on the road with a program that has not been successful away from home and that fits UTEP here. Since the start of the 2016 season, the Miners have a SU record of 6-39 in road games. We like FIU to win this one at home. |
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10-10-23 | Louisiana Tech v. Middle Tennessee State -145 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
#104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -145 over La Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Interesting the team with the 1-5 record (MTSU) is favored over the team with the 3-4 record (LaTech). Hmmm. We actually have the Blue Raiders as a larger favorite in our power ratings (-4.5) so we feel there is value on the host here. MTSU has played the much tougher schedule already facing 2 SEC teams (Alabama & Mizzou) along with solid opponents Colorado State, Jacksonville State, and Western Kentucky. Despite their record MTSU’s YPG differential is dead even which tells us this team should be right around .500 rather than a 1 win team. They played toe to toe with Missouri on the road losing 23-19 and only getting outgained by 30 yards. The Raiders have outgained 3 of their last 4 opponents and in their most recent game, a home loss vs a 5-1 Jacksonville State team, they led 23-7 at half and outgained the Gamecocks 563 to 401. Four 2nd half turnovers, including a defensive TD for Jacksonville State, killed them in that game. They were actually favored by -3 in that game (same number in tonight’s game) vs a Gamecock team we have rated 3 points better than tonight’s opponent, La Tech. Speaking of the Bulldogs, they have played one of the weakest SOS’s in the country (130th) and their 3 wins have come vs FIU, Northwestern State, and UTEP. That’s an FCS team who has yet to win a game, and 2 FBS teams we have power rated in our bottom 10 teams in the country including one that had to play without their starting QB (UTEP). We were on La Tech at home last week vs an overvalued Western Kentucky team in what we felt was a great spot to grab them as a dog and while they game ended up 35-28, the Bulldogs were down 35-7 at half and allowed almost 7.0 YPP. Interestingly, Louisiana Tech was +6.5 in that game at home and just one week earlier MTSU traveled to Western Kentucky and the line was the same at +6.5. Based on those lines, that tells us this MTSU should be favored by around 6 points vs La Tech on a neutral field and we’re getting them a full FG less than that at home. The Bulldogs are on a short week (played last Thursday) and on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. MTSU has had an extra day to prepare (played last Wednesday) and is at home for the 4th time in 5 weeks including their 2nd of back to back home games. We like the Blue Raiders to win and cover at home. |
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10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -147 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -147 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -150/-155 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 9:07 PM ET - Just like our play on the Astros in their win over the Twins in Game 1 of that series Saturday, laying a little juice can prove well worth it in the post-season when the situation is right. This is another one of those spots the way we see it! And, for comparison's sake, a 4* play on a -110 is roughly the same risk amount as a 3* play on a -150 favorite. No hesitation to lay it here as the Dodgers are set to bounce back after the ugly loss in Game 1 Saturday. LA was hammered 11 to 2 in that game but, as you would expect with a strong team like the Dodgers, they rarely have losses in which they allow 9 or more runs. The last 8 times that happened this season, Los Angeles won the next game all 8 times - a perfect 8-0 mark! We do not see that changing here. Zac Gallen is a solid starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks but his ERA was nearly 2 runs higher on the road compared to at home this past season. Gallen was 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA in Arizona this season but went 5-6 with a 4.42 ERA on the road. Specifically he struggled in his two starts against these Dodgers and we expect more of the same here. Bobby Miller, on the other hand, was solid against the Diamondbacks this season with a 3.00 ERA in his two starts against them. Another thing that impressed us about a rookie like Miller this season is we thought he might fade some late in the season. However, Miller even got stronger come crunch time and he had a 3.36 ERA after the All-Star break compared to a 4.50 ERA prior to it. That is a good sign of what to expect from him here in a home post-season start as well. Also, in the regular season, the Dodgers bullpen ranked among the best in the majors while the Diamondbacks bullpen ERA ranked them in the lower half of the majors. We look for a huge bounce back here from a playoff-tested Dodgers team as they respond off a rare, ugly home loss and make it 9-0 last 9 times when off a loss in which they allowed 9 or more runs! Take the Dodgers at home Monday night. |
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10-09-23 | Packers v. Raiders OVER 45 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
#475/476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Las Vegas Raiders, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Jimmy Garoppolo is back under center for the Raiders and we like this to be a higher scoring game. Last week the Raiders were poor offensively averaging only 3.8 YPP vs the Chargers, however Garoppolo sat with a concussion and rookie QB O’Connell was in over his head in his first career action. With Garoppolo at QB the first 3 games the Raiders averaged 5.4 YPP which is a huge upgrade from O’Connell’s performance last week. Las Vegas has struggled to score points at times this season, however much of that is due to turnovers. They have a -9 turnover margin which is worst in the NFL and that has led to them running the 4th fewest offensive snaps in the league this year. That has led directly to their lower scoring numbers. If they can take care of the ball here, they should be successful vs a Packers defense that ranks 20th in the league allowing 24 PPG. That’s despite facing to of the worst 7 offenses in the NFL on a YPP basis (Saints and Falcons). The GB offense is starting to play well under new QB Love. They’ve scored at least 20 points in every game but 1 this season and that was vs the Saints who rank in the top 10 in a number of key defensive categories. The Packers scored 18 in that game. They’ve been very efficient offensively scoring 1 point for every 11 yards gained which is #1 in the NFL. That should continue vs a Las Vegas defense that ranks 20th or lower in total defense, scoring defense, YPP allowed, and 3rd down efficiency. The Raiders have now allowed 20 or more points in 19 of their last 23 games. Perfect scoring conditions on Monday night at Allegiant Stadium we expect this one to go Over the total. |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Cowboys +4 at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is a rematch of the playoff meeting between these two teams when the Niners won at home 19-12 as a -3.5-point favorite. That game was relatively close throughout with the 49ers averaging 5.1YPP compared to Dallas and their 4.7YPP. These two teams along with Philadelphia are the best of the NFC and we expect this game to be decided by a field goal or less either way. Dallas is 4th in scoring at 31PPG but have largely failed in Red Zone scoring percentage at 36.8%. They have received some scoring help from their defense but clearly the offense is better than their overall numbers. The Cowboys have kept the chains moving by converting 51.61% of their 3rd downs with the 7th best rushing offense in terms of total yards. QB Dak Prescott also has the 6th best completion percentage in the NFL. Obviously, San Francisco has incredible offensive numbers ranking 3rd in rushing YPG and 9th in passing YPG. Defensively these two teams have plenty of similarities and if you look you’ll see both rate top 5 in most key categories. The one slight advantage the Cowboys have will be in pressuring Niners QB Purdy as Dallas has the 2nd best sack percentage in the league. These are two very even teams and getting more than a field goal with Dallas is the way to play it. |
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10-08-23 | Bengals v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
#466 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +3.5 over Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Cincy is living on their past few years because this team isn’t good right now. They rank dead last with a -1.7 yards per play differential. They have 1 win and in that 3 point victory over the Rams they were actually outgained by 1.3 YPP. QB Burrow not close to 100% and that’s obvious. He needs to sit and rest his calf to get healthy but they continue to play him. He’s dead last in the league in QBR and has zero mobility. The Cards were expected by most to be terrible this season. While they only have 1 win, they’ve proven that not to be the case. This team plays hard under new head coach Gannon and believe it or not, offensively Arizona is averaging 1.7 YPP more than the Bengals this season. The last 2 weeks the Cards have played what most consider to be the 2 best teams in the NFC and played well for the most part. The beat the Cowboys here at home by 12 points 2 weeks ago and it was no fluke. Arizona averaged an impressive 7.5 YPP in that game while holding Dallas to just 5.5 YPP. Last week they did lose @ San Francisco by double digits but that was a 5 point game in the 4th quarter. The Bengals are averaging a league low 12 PPG and this is their 2nd straight week on the road after getting roasted @ Tennessee 27-3 last Sunday getting outgained 400 to 211. The Bengals continue to be overvalued on past laurels and have failed to cover the spread in any game this year losing to the number by 53 combined points. We think Zona has a solid shot at the outright win. Take the points. |
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10-07-23 | Colorado State v. Utah State OVER 62 | Top | 24-44 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
#371/372 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 62 Points – Colorado State vs Utah State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Two very fast paced teams here so we’ll have plenty of opportunities on offense. USU ranks 6th nationally in seconds per play and CSU ranks 11th in that category. Both average over 70 offensive plays per game and on the other side of the ball both defenses rank in the top 30 in opponent offensive plays per game with USU allowing 73 opponent snaps per game and CSU allowing 84! So we know we’ll be looking at a lot of offensive snaps here and we have no doubt both teams will be very successful on that side of the ball. The Aggies have been very good offensively with the exception of their games vs Air Force & Iowa, 2 of the top defenses in the country. In their other 3 games they’ve scored 78, 38, and 34 points and now they face a Colorado State defense that ranks 125th in total defense allowing 40+ points in 2 of their 4 games. The Aggies did lose their starting QB Hillstead last week but he is a freshman and was not the starter at the beginning of the season. Their backup QB Legas was the starter for the first 2 games this year, is a senior, was last year’s starter, and has thrown for 600 yards this season. He came in last week for an injured Hillstead and threw for over 200 yards and 3 TD’s in less than one half of play. On the flip side, CSU averages 6.6 YPP (top 30 nationally) and they’ve scored 30+ in 3 of their 4 games this season. The Rams are facing a Utah State defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense as well. Both teams air it out and neither runs the ball much. CSU ranks 4th nationally in pass attempts per game and 3rd in YPG through the air while averaging only 26 carries per game (128th). USU ranks 19th in pass attempts per game and 35th in YPG passing while only averaging 30 carries per game (111th). On the defensive side the Rams rank 132nd out of 133 teams in pass defense and Utah State ranks 94th in that stat so we don’t look for either offense to change their style here. Offensive strengths playing directly into defensive weaknesses for both teams. Colorado State games are averaging 60 PPG this season and they’ve topped 60 total points in 3 of their 4 games. Utah State games are averaging 71 total points this season and EVERY team they’ve played has been slow paced, all ranked outside the top 90 in seconds per play. These teams have played 9 combined games this season with 7 going Over the total. Both easily get into the 30’s here and we wouldn’t be at all shocked if both push 40 or higher. Weather looks perfect for this game in Logan Utah and we look for LOTS of scoring. |
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10-07-23 | Michigan -17.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 52-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
#401 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan -17.5 over Minnesota, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We see this game playing out very similar to last week’s Michigan win @ Nebraska 45-7. The Husker are actually a better team than Minnesota this year (according to our power ratings) as they dominated the stat sheet @ Minnesota in week 1 but lost 13-10 due to 4 turnovers. Minnesota struggled here last week vs UL Lafayette but won by 11 despite getting outgained 6.7 YPP to 5.3 YPP. ULL held Minnesota to just 347 total yards and the Gophs were lucky to put up 35 points with those yardage numbers. ULL did rush for 180 yards on the Gopher defense which has taken a big step back this season. That’ll be a problem vs the potent Michigan rushing attack that had 249 yards on the ground last week vs a very good Nebraska defense last Saturday. The Wolves were going through the motions their first 3 games off the season which were all easy wins but non-covers. The last 2 weeks vs Big 10 opponents they scored 76 points and held those teams to 14 points combined. Now with their head coach Harbaugh and OC back on the sidelines after missing games early this season due to suspensions, we look for Michigan to roll. Minnesota has played a relatively easy schedule with the best team they played, North Carolina, rolling over the Gophs 31-13 and outgaining them 519 to 303. Their other opponents are Eastern Michigan (bad MAC team), Nebraska (lower tier Big 10 team), Northwestern (lower tier Big 10 team) and UL Lafayette from the Sun Belt. Despite their strength of schedule (62nd) the Gophers have been outgained on the year on both a YPG and YPP basis. Similar to last week’s Michigan game vs Nebraska – Minnesota can’t pass (120th at 149 YPG passing) and you can’t run on Michigan as they are allowing 85 YPG on the ground. Last week a solid rushing team, Nebraska, had 106 yards on the ground and 74 of those came on one run late in the game – the Huskers only TD. On top of that, Minnesota’s top RB Taylor didn’t play last week and it doesn’t look like he’ll be ready for this one. The Wolverines have won 30 of their last 31 regular season games and 25 of those have come by double digits. Michigan can name the score here and we look for a blowout. |
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10-06-23 | Nebraska +3.5 v. Illinois | Top | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 61 h 43 m | Show |
#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois, Friday at 8 PM ET - We have Nebraska power rated as the better team in this match up and they are getting just north of the FG. After back to back wins the Huskers were crushed last week at home vs Michigan which wasn’t unexpected as the Wolverines just might be the best team in the country. The Nebraska offense was actually decent averaging 5.9 YPP but only ran 46 offensive snaps to 74 for Michigan. Their defense really impressed us this season but struggled vs one of the top offenses in the country last week. We expect them to bounce back and play very well vs an Illinois offense that ranks 75th nationally in total offense and is averaging just over 21 PPG (105th nationally). After their loss vs Michigan, Cornhusker head coach Matt Rhule held a surprise full pad, full contact practice on Sunday and our word is it was one of their best practices of the season. The Illini were blasted 44-19 @ Purdue last week and that’s a Boiler team that entered that game with only 1 win on the season (by 7 points) vs a bad Va Tech team. Illinois has 2 wins on the season coming by 2 points vs Toledo and by 6 points vs a bad FAU team. We were on the Illini in that game vs FAU and thought it was a perfect spot for them to get back on track vs the Owls who were rolled @ Clemson a week earlier and lost their starting QB in that loss. Illinois was only able to beat FAU 23-17 in a very disappointing performance. Their defense has dropped off drastically this season after losing a number of key players to the NFL. The Illini gave up over 200 yards rushing last week vs Purdue and are giving up 180 YPG on the ground this season (110th). That’s a problem vs a Nebraska offense that is putting up over 200 YPG on the ground (15th nationally) and are continuing with Haaberg at QB who has 255 yards rushing in his 3 starts. Nebraska is much better defensively this season allowing 4.6 YPP (that includes game vs Michigan) compared to the Illini allowing 5.5 YPP. Nebraska really should be 3-2 on the season after completely outplaying Minnesota on the road in week 1 (lost 13-10) with other losses @ Colorado and at home vs Michigan. We give the Huskers a great shot at winning this one outright so we’ll take the points. |
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10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44 | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
#305/306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points – Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bears defense is among the worst in the NFL and has been for the last few years. They have now allowed 25 or more points in 14 straight games dating back to last season. Chicago ranks 29th in YPP allowed (6.2), 31st in scoring defense (34 PPG), 32nd in Yards Per Completion, 31st in Yards Per Pass Attempt, and 31st in opposing quarterbacks QBR. Washington QB Howell has been improving each week and last Sunday he completed over 70% of his passes for 290 yards vs a very good Philadelphia defense. He should have a field day on Sunday. The Chicago offense broke out last week with 28 points on 6.7 YPP and QB Fields was 28 of 35 for 335 yards and 4 TD’s. They are facing a Washington defense that ranks 29th allowing 30 PPG which is a full TD more than the league average. The Commanders have allowed 30+ in each of their last 3 games. They are especially susceptible vs the run allowing 4.5 Yards Per Rush (26th) and 122.5RYPG (21st). That plays into one of Chicago’s strengths as they rank 5th in Yards Per Rush at 4.7 and 13th in overall rushing YPG. The weather looks perfect in DC on Thursday night with temps in the low 70’s, no precipitation, and very light winds. Both offenses should thrive here and we’ll grab the Over. |
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10-05-23 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 48 m | Show |
#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech +6.5 over Western Kentucky, Thursday at 8 PM ET - WKY is overvalued coming into this one and our power ratings have them as just under a 3 point favorite and they opened -7. It has since dropped a bit but still some solid value on the host La Tech. Western Kentucky is coming off a solid 31-10 win over MTSU however the yardage was much closer than than (444 to 373) and the Blue Raiders had 3 turnovers. MTSU left a number of points on the field getting shut out on downs twice inside WKY territory to go along with their turnover problems. It was actually the first time this season the Hilltoppers (3-2 record) have outgained their opponent (minus FCS competition). Western is averaging 382 YPG on the season (76th nationally) while allowing 472 YPG (130th). They rank 106th defensively allowing 6.2 YPP on the season and they have allowed over 500 yards in 3 of their 4 games vs FBS opponents. So we have a team laying nearly a TD on the road despite being poor on defense. Not a great recipe for success. Their offense has also taken a big step back (-130 YPG compared to last year) after losing their OC in the off season to Washington State. La Tech moved to 3-3 on the season after a road win @ UTEP last Saturday. Their offense has been comparable to WKY averaging 376 YPG but the Bulldogs defense is allowing nearly 100 fewer YPG than the Hilltoppers. The host also has the much better rushing attack (153 YPG on the ground to just 98 YPG for WKY) and they are facing a Hilltopper defense that gives up over 200 YPG on the ground. Western is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks here and on a short week. We’ll take the points with Louisiana Tech at home. |
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10-04-23 | Blue Jays v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
#955/956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 4:38 PM ET - Yesterday 3 of the 4 Wild Card match-ups finished under the total and this one was the most dominating under of the bunch as neither team topped 6 hits! We expect a repeat of something similar in terms of the final result here in Game 2 Wednesday. Jose Berrios the expected starter for the Blue Jays and he went 4-0 with a 2.44 ERA in his 8 day game starts this season! Also, in terms of current form, Berrios is coming off a strong September in which he held opponents to a .220 batting average while walking only 6 and striking out 38 in his 32 innings over his 5 starts for the month. Berrios spent his first 5 and 1/2 seasons in the bigs with the Twins and will look to take advantage of this opportunity today against the team that drafted him. He is a veteran with playoff experience and the same holds true for Sonny Gray of the Twins. The Minnesota right-hander also dominated afternoon action and also is coming into this outing in top form. Gray went 5-2 with a 1.80 ERA in his 13 day game starts this season and opponents hit just .185 against him! In the month of September he had a 2.00 ERA and in the month of August he had a 2.04 ERA! These are a pair of solid bullpens too and, the way these starters are going (and the bats were quiet yesterday), the bullpens may not be needed much anyway in what shapes up to be another pitchers' duel here. This one will, in all likelihood, be another tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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10-03-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
#950 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 7:08 PM ET - The Brewers set to win huge in this one with a massive pitching edge. The Diamondbacks will have to contend with Milwaukee’s ace Corbin Burnes and this will likely make for a night of misery for Arizona at the plate while the Brewers should enjoy facing a pitcher that was hit hard in September and, overall, has had an unimpressive season. Brandon Pfaadt is a rookie that went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA this season. Even though his ERA was a more respectable 4.22 since the all-star break, he is coming off a September in which opponents hit .288 against him. This is a tough spot for a young guy like Pfaadt pitching on the road in the first game of the post-season and especially when such a tough veteran pitcher is on the other side. Unlike Pfaadt, the Brewers Burnes has been top notch this season and also just delivered another strong month of September in terms of being very tough to hit! Burnes has allowed just 8 earned runs on only 19 hits while striking out 33 in the 28.2 innings over his 5 starts since the end of August. A strong stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season and fanned 200 again this season! The Brewers have won 8 of 12 and have scored 5.3 runs a game in last 12 games. The Diamondbacks wrapped the season losing 4 straight games and have scored just 1.2 runs per game last 5 games. 57 of 78 Arizona losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 1.4 runs per game in their last 8 wins. They again shutdown the opposition as Burnes comes up huge here and the Brewers also hold the bullpen edge with ERA ranked 2nd compared to Diamondbacks ERA ranked 18th on the season. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line big in this one. |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants +2 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY GIANTS +2 vs. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, 8:20 PM ET - This is one of those ‘plug your nose’ bets as the Giants have not looked good this season and currently stand 1-2 SU. Clearly a big reason for that losing record is the schedule they’ve faced with games against the Cowboys, 49ers and a better-than-expected Cardinals team. Dallas and San Francisco are arguably the two of the best defenses in the league along with the Browns. So, when you look at the Giants offensive numbers it’s understandable why they are so disappointing. Seattle on the other hand has faced a soft schedule with the Panthers, Rams and Lions. The win in Detroit is solid but the Lions were off a huge MNF win against the Chiefs and simply overlooked this Seahawks team that lost to the Rams in the opener. The Seahawks are 24th in the league in sacks per game and 29th in sack % defense. They don’t possess a pass rush capable of getting to Giants QB Jones. The Giants can get to Hawks QB Smith as the Seattle offensive line has been hit hard with injuries. The Yards Per Play differential for the Giants is not a pretty number as they are minus -1.1YPP, but again look at who they’ve faced. Seattle also has a negative differential as they average 5.6YPP on offense but allow 5.8YPP. Seattle has been a road favorite just 5 times since 2021 and they shouldn’t be laying points here. |
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10-01-23 | Patriots v. Cowboys UNDER 43.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 46 m | Show |
#273/274 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both teams in this one. Dallas was lights out their first 2 games allowing 10 total points but had a letdown last week @ Arizona. After that poor performance we expect them to be very motivated at home in this one. The Boys are allowing only 4.8 YPP on the season and teams are averaging only 25 yards per drive which is 3rd best defensive mark in the NFL. They are facing a pedestrian New England offense that hasn’t scored more than 20 points in any game yet this season. Against a similar high level defense last week, the Pats scored only 13 offensive points (vs Jets). New England is NOT explosive offense with only 1.4% of their offensive snaps gaining 20 yards or more – worst in the league. Defensively New England has been very good. They held the potent Miami attack to just 24 points – Fins scored 36 and 70 in their other 2 games. For the season, including the Miami game, the Patriots are allowing only 4.4 YPP which is 4th best in the NFL. Only 18% of opponents drives have reached the redzone or score prior to that vs New England’s defense. That’s the 2nd best rate in the NFL. Belichick knows defense, no doubt about that. Our projections have this as a low scoring game and we’ll grab the Under here. |
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10-01-23 | Vikings -4.5 v. Panthers | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
#255 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings -4.5 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - All 0-3 teams are not created equal. Both teams 0-3 but Vikes could easily be 3-0 with 3 losses by combined 13 points. In their first 2 games of the season Minnesota outgained both TB & Philly by more than +1.0 YPP. Last week’s 4 point home loss to the Chargers also could easily have gone Minnesota’s way as their final 2 drives they were shut out on downs at Chargers 2 yard line and then threw a pick in the end zone. The main problem has been turnovers. The Vikes are minus 7 turnovers worst differential in NFL. Offensively they’ve been really good ranking 2nd in the NFL in YPP and 3rd in total offense (over 400 per game) and 82% of their scoring plays have been TD’s so they can score. That will be a problem for Carolina as we do not envision the Panthers keeping up on the scoreboard in this game. Panther QB Bryce Young comes back on Sunday which is a plus for Minnesota as backup Andy Dalton actually gives them a better chance to win right now. The Panther offense has been bad with Young under center scoring only 2 offensive TD’s this season and averaging just 4.1 YPP. Young makes ver few big plays with Young ranking dead last in yards per pass attempt (a lot of short passes). Despite their winless record, the Vikings have a positive YPP differential (+0.6) while Carolina is getting outgained regularly (-0.6 YPP differential). If Minnesota can straighten out their turnover issues, they should win this game comfortably. |
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09-30-23 | South Carolina v. Tennessee OVER 59.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
#137/138 ASA PLAY ON Over 59.5 Points – South Carolina vs Tennessee, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - FAST! That’s what this game is going to be like with more than the normal number of possessions for both teams. Tennessee is the 2nd fastest paced team in college football with a play run every 19.8 seconds. South Carolina prefers to play fast also with the 19th fastest paced offense. The Vols run 73 plays per game, SC runs 70.3 which are both more than average in college football. Last year when these two teams met, they produced 101 total points and over 1,100 total yards of offense. The Gamecocks offense with QB Rattler can move the chains as evidenced by their 8th ranked passing offense averaging 340PYPG. He is completing 73.4% of his pass attempts at a 9.8 yards/attempt clip and owns the 15th best QB rating in college football. Tennessee has impressive pass defense statistics, but they haven’t faced a team that ranks higher than 50th in passing yards per game. The Vols are going to put up points in this game against a suspect Gamecocks defense. SoutH Carolina just gave up 30-points to Mississippi State and over 500-total yards of offense to the Bulldogs. The week before they gave up just 24-points to Georgia which was misleading considering the Dawgs had 470-total yards of offense. Tennessee is 24th in YPG, 31st in YPP at 6.6 and average 35PPG. The Vols tend to score more at home as they average 45PPG at home since 2021 and last season they scored 53.7PPG at home. This game has a shootout written all over it. |
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09-30-23 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia Southern -6.5 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
#146 ASA TOP PLAY ON Georgia Southern -6.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Georgia Southern has been very impressive this year under HC Clay Helton (former USC head coach) with a 3-1 record. Their only loss on the season was @ Wisconsin and GSU actually outplayed the Badgers in that one (more first downs & total yardage) but had 6 turnovers (0 for Wisconsin) in that setback. They bounced back nicely after that loss trouncing Ball State on the road 40-3 last Saturday. The Eagles offense has been tough to stop ranking 18th nationally in YPG and 7th in yards passing. Tulsa transfer QB Brin has completed 73% of his passes this year for 1,300 yards in just 4 games. If he can avoid the turnover, the GSU team will be very tough to beat. Brin does have 7 interceptions on the season, but again 5 came in one game vs Wisconsin. The defense has improved dramatically over last season allowing 334 YPG so far this season after allowing over 500 YPG a year ago. Coastal has taken a step back as we expected. They had a turnover on the coaching staff with their head coach moving onto Liberty. The Chanticleers are 2-2 on the season coming off a 30-17 home loss vs Georgia State. Their only 2 wins have come vs FCS Duquesne and Jacksonville State. This will be their first road game in almost a month and GSU has been waiting for this one. The Eagles went to Coastal last year and almost pulled the upset losing 34-30. GSU led by 10 in the 4th quarter in that game but allowed CC to score TD’s on each of their final 3 possessions. If we subtract games vs FCS teams this year, GSU still has a +0.6 YPP differential while Coastal is -0.8 YPP. The Eagles could have easily won on the road last year vs Coastal and we have upgraded GSU this year while the Chanticleers have clearly taken a step back. We’ll side with Georgia Southern at home. |
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09-29-23 | Cincinnati v. BYU UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-35 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 37 m | Show |
#119/120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 48.5 Points – Cincinnati vs BYU, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - BYU held their first 2 opponents to 16 combined points and it looks like they may have regressed allowing 31 and 38 points in their last 2 games vs Arkansas and Kansas. Not the case in our opinion. A closer look reveals they only gave up 24 offensive points in each of those 2 games vs high level offenses. KU last week scored 2 defensive TD’s and was held to just 351 total yards by this BYU defense. A week earlier Arkansas had an 88 yard punt return in the box score. We expect defensive success here for BYU vs a Cincinnati offense that has scored 30 total points in their last 2 games vs Miami OH & Oklahoma. If we subtract their 66 point effort vs FCS Eastern Kentucky, the Bearcats are averaging just 19 PPG under their new head coach Satterfield and new OC Brendel who came over from Va Tech who finished 118th in scoring last season. So while we feel BYU will have the edge when Cincy has the ball, we feel the Bearcats will have the same advantage when they are on defense. BYU’s offense averages just 4.5 YPP (109th nationally) this season vs their 3 FBS teams they’ve faced. While it looks like their offense has lit it up the last 2 weeks scoring 38 points vs Arkansas and 31 vs Kansas, the fact is they had 280 total yards vs the Razors and 366 vs KU. They were extremely fortunate to score the points they did based on their offensive yardage output. They face a solid Cincy defense that has allowed 21 points or less in 3 of their 4 games including holding Oklahoma to 20 points last Saturday. That’s an Oklahoma offense that averaged 58 PPG in their first 3 games of the season. Neither offense is fast paced (both middle of the pack in seconds per play) both struggle to convert on 3rd downs (both outside the top 90) which makes it difficult to extend drives. We like the Under here on Friday Night. |
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09-29-23 | Red Sox +125 v. Orioles | Top | 3-0 | Win | 125 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox +115/+120 over Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers. The Orioles did it with yesterday's win over these Red Sox. They clinched the AL East and that is their first division title in nearly a decade. We do not expect much from this Baltimore bunch today after such an emotional win yesterday and all the celebrating that followed last night. That said, there is excellent underdog line value with Boston here. The Red Sox send Nick Pivetta to the mound and he has a 3.08 ERA this month with opponents hitting just .208 against him. Pivetta has an edge here in that the Orioles have not seen him yet this season and when he last pitched here in August at Baltimore he struck out 9 in 6 innings. Pivetta has had good success against them each of the last two times he has faced them and the O's bats could be a little sleepy here after last night's celebration. The Orioles send John Means to the mound and he had missed much of this season as well as much of last season. Though he has pitched well in limited action since coming back, Means could be limited tonight as now the Orioles are just in "tune-up mode" for the post-season. They will want to be careful with Means here. Keep in mind he is coming back from Tommy John surgery and this will be just his 5th start since the 2021 season ended and they want him healthy and strong for the playoffs. The value is on the Red Sox in this one and Boston is currently available at a solid underdog price range of +115 to +120. |
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09-28-23 | Lions -1.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Detroit Lions -1.5 at Green Bay Packers, Thursday 8:15PM ET - One big advantage the Lions have over the Packers in this game is their offensive line is much better than Green Bay’s. The Packers are without two starters on the O-line here in Bakhtiari and Jenkins who provide valuable protection for QB Love and running lanes for RB Jones. Green Bay will get Aaron Jones and WR Watson back for this game, but it may not matter if Love doesn’t have time to throw the football. Detroit allows just 4.6YPP this season which is 6th best in the NFL. The Lions are giving up just 3.2 yards per rush attempt which is 5th best in the league. In comparison, the Packers allow 4.3 yards per rush (18th) and 5.0YPP overall which is 16th. Offensively, the Lions have an edge here too with one of the better O-lines in the NFL. Detroit is averaging 5.8YPP (7th best) versus Green Bay who averages 5.0YPP (16th). These two teams both faced the Falcons this season. Detroit dominated the Falcons in a 20-6 win with 358 total yards to 183 and a YPP advantage of 7.4YPP to 3.1YPP. Green Bay faced this same Atlanta team the week before (lost 24-25) and gave up 446 total yards to the Birds, 5.7YPP while gaining just 224 total yards themselves at 5.4YPP. Detroit has won and covered 3 of the last four meetings with the Packers and even though Love has played well, we like the veteran QB Goff and the Lions in this one. Detroit is on a 14-6 ATS streak dating back to the start of last season and cash the ticket here. |
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09-28-23 | Jacksonville State v. Sam Houston State UNDER 36.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -109 | 40 h 43 m | Show |
#107/108 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 36.5 Points – Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We realize this total is very low for a college game but it’s warranted in our opinion. Sam Houston State’s offense is bad and there is no other way around that. They have scored a total of 10 points in 3 games this year and they rank dead last in CFB in total offense averaging just 148 YPG. Yes you read that correctly. The Bearkats have 24 total first downs in 3 games. We don’t look for a turnaround here as they are facing a JSU defense that ranks in the top 20 nationally in YPP allowed and shut out Eastern Michigan 21-0 last week. The Gamecock defense has held 3 of their 4 opponents this year to 14 points or fewer. The Sam Houston State defense did give up 38 points last week to a potent Houston offense, however prior to that they held BYU to 14 points and Air Force to 13 points in their first 2 games. To put those SHSU defensive efforts into perspective, Air Force has scored 49, 45, and 32 in their other 3 games while BYU scored 41, 31, and 27 vs their 3 other opponents. While Jacksonville State’s offense is better than Sam Houston’s not existent offense, the Gamecocks are far from a juggernaut scoring 17, 16, and 21 points in their 3 games vs FBS opponents. Looking even deeper, those 3 opponents currently rank 76th, 96th, and 106th in total defense vs FBS opponent so it’s not as if JSU has played a gauntlet of great defenses. Neither team has a potent passing attack as they rank 129th and 124th in YPG passing and both love to run the ball which eats clock. JSU is 4-0 to the Under this year by an average of almost 19 PPG. SHSU is 2-1 to the Under this year. The projected final score here based on the total and the line (JSU -6.5) is 22-15 and we don’t see either team getting to those numbers. Under is the play. |
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09-28-23 | A's v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Oakland Athletics, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Twins are likely going with Sonny Gray and the A's are likely going with Luis Medina. Either way, Minnesota is the play here as Oakland is wrapping up a miserable season with more and more misery. The Athletics have dropped to 48-110 on the season and are 21-73 against teams with a winning record this season. The Twins are 47-33 at home this season and this is their regular season home finale. 83 of Oakland's 110 losses have been by 2 or more runs. 67 of Minnesota's 85 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. Sonny Gray has a 1.96 ERA this month and had a 2.04 ERA last month and he has a 1.77 ERA in day games this season. Luis Medina is 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA in day games and 1-6 with a 6.60 ERA in road games. He had a 6.10 ERA last month and has a 6.62 ERA last month. This is another complete mismatch and Minnesota also has the much better bullpen in addition to the much better lineup - even if they rest a player or two here. We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and only having to lay rather small juice with the Twins. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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09-27-23 | Rays -120 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -125 over Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 6:10 PM ET - We will go action on the pitchers here. The Red Sox have Brayan Bello listed as a starter and the Rays are expected to start Tyler Glasnow here. The odds that both pitchers get scratched is, of course, very minimal and this is both a play on Glasnow and a play against Bello so we are in good shape either way. From a team aspect there is a huge edge for Tampa Bay as well. They are still alive in the race for the AL East division title plus they catch a Red Sox team that is slumping badly to end the season. Boston is 4-15 last 19 games and fell out of playoff contention as the month of September wore on. Overall, they have been struggling for 2 months now as, dating to late July, the Red Sox have a 20-34 record! The Rays are on a 33-18 run since late July! Glasnow has dominated the Red Sox in both his starts against them this season and that included one at Fenway Park! Though he has given up more earned runs in recent outings he has still been tough to hit and has continued piling up strikeouts and he will resume his dominance of the Red Sox here! As for Bello, he has allowed 15 earned runs in 20 innings in his 4 starts against TB in his career. Bello also enters this outing off B2B losses and got destroyed in his most recent start and has a 7.65 ERA this month. All factors considered, a lot of value with the road team at a very fair money line price in this one. Look for Tampa Bay to keep rolling as they have one of the best records in the league this season and continue to be consistently strong. Rays get the win this evening in Boston. |
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09-26-23 | Nationals v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
#980 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:35 PM ET - The Orioles are hungry to lock down the AL East. They are getting close but they are not quite there yet. Here they will take advantage of facing a struggling Nationals club and move one step closer to a division title. While Washington is wrapping up another frustrating season, Baltimore has won 6 of 9 games and is looking to top the Rays for the division title after falling just short of the post-season last year. The Orioles have a big pitching edge here with Kyle Bradish over Josiah Gray. Though Gray is coming off decent starts recently, he faced non-playoff level clubs that were struggling. This is a much tougher match-up for him here and he was very fortunate against Baltimore earlier this season when he allowed only 1 earned run in 5 innings despite walking 4 batters and giving up 8 baserunners overall in the short outing. In his last 4 starts against playoff-level teams - Marlins, Phillies, Brewers, Blue Jays - Gray has allowed 16 earned runs in 14.1 innings! As for the Orioles Bradish, his numbers are already extremely strong on the season but when you take out the only very ugly start he had (7 earned runs allowed) it shows just how amazingly consistent he has been this season. Taking out his ugliest outing this season, Bradish is 11-6 with a 2.65 ERA and this is a guy who averages one strikeout per inning and also he dominated Washington when he faced them earlier this season! The Orioles right-hander had a fantastic August and is following it up with a dominant September. The Orioles are on pace for at least 100 wins this season and 70% of their wins have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Nationals are mired in a 8-19 slump and 17 of their last 18 defeats (94%!) have been by at least 2 runs! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Orioles big on the run line in this one. |
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09-24-23 | Cowboys v. Cardinals UNDER 43 | Top | 16-28 | Loss | -109 | 63 h 49 m | Show |
#471/472 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 43 Points - Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - In Week #1 of the NFL season the Unders were 12-4. In Week #2 the Overs came in with a 13-3 record. The oddsmakers have adjusted their numbers up on this game and we will bet contrarian with an Under wager. The Cowboy’s defense is ‘that’ good! They have given up 10 total points this season and the touchdown allowed was a 68-yard play to the Jets last week. Ask yourself this, would you be surprised if the Cardinals didn’t score here? We wouldn’t. Dallas held the Giants offense to 171-total yards in the opener, then held the Jets to 215 last week with 68 coming on one long TD pass. Take that 1 TD play away last week and the Cowboys allowed just 3.4YPPL. In Week #1 the Cowboys put up 40-points but two scores came by special teams and the defense. Last week against the Jets, the Cowboys (McCarthy) went ultra conservative in the 2nd half with 4 field goals. Dallas has averaged just 4.7YPP which ranks 24th in the league. Arizona is averaging 5.0YPP offensively which is 21st. Both teams average abnormally high Yards Per Points offensively, but we expect a regression in those numbers. Dallas now has two weeks of film on Cards QB Dobbs and will have a gameplan in place to pressure the unproven QB. The pace of play clearly favors a lower scoring contest as the Cardinals are 27th in pace with a play run every 30.1 seconds. Dallas is nearly as slow (25th) at a play run every 29.9 seconds. With the potential of Arizona scoring 10 or less points, and the Cowboys conservative play calling we like Under the total. |
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09-24-23 | Mariners v. Rangers -119 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -120 over Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - The Mariners again lost to the Rangers yesterday in the second game of this 3-game set with Texas. More of the same on the way here as the loss dropped the Mariners to just 33-44 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 49-31 in home games this season and this is their regular season home finale. Considering that plus the fact they are in a battle with Houston and Seattle for the AL West title, the Rangers realize the importance of taking advantage of home field in this one for the series sweep. We get line value here because Bryan Woo is on the mound for the Mariners in this one and has a respectable ERA. The fact is the rookie does not have the MLB big game experience of Nathan Eovaldi plus Woo is 0-3 with a 10.38 ERA in his 3 day game starts this season. This Texas line up has been very good this season at home where they are ranked #2 in the AL for batting average (.274) and #1 in the AL with a .492 slugging percentage! The Rangers are averaging 6 RPG this season at home. They will send Eovaldi to the mound here as he continues to get back to full strength after missing the last two weeks of July and the month of August. We look for him to continue to bounce back as he has gotten stronger and worked deeper with each start here in the month of September. For the season Eovaldi has an ERA of 3.04 and an 11-4 record. With over a decade of experience including multiple seasons with post-season experience, Eovaldi delivers in a key game here. The Rangers are looking to grab the division title this coming week and we look for Eovaldi to help the cause and, along the way, he adds a W to his sparkling run of 10-2 his last 12 decisions! Texas is 6-1 last 7 at home and Seattle is on an overall 7-12 run and has lost 10 of 16 road games! Take the Rangers |
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09-24-23 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 44 | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 59 h 27 m | Show |
#455/456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 44 Points - Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The first aspect we like about this game is the fact that both teams prefer to play fast, which leads to more plays/possessions per game and potentially more scoring opportunities. The Jags are 12th in play per second at 27.9, the Texans are 5th at 25.5 seconds p/play. After putting up 31-points in their opener, the Jags managed just 9-points last week against a very good Kansas City defense that had Chris Jones back in the lineup. Jacksonville had three potential TD drives that turned into FG’s when receivers didn’t get their feet down inbounds in the endzone. The Jags were 9th in scoring a year ago at 23.9PPG and 12th in Yards Per Points offensively at 15.0. The low scoring output last week was not a true indicator of this offensive unit, and we are betting they bounce back here, especially against this Texans defense. Houston is giving up 28 PPG and just allowed 31 to a Colts team with a rookie QB making his first start on the road. The Colts averaged 6.3 Yards Per Play against this Texans D after averaging just 4.8YPP a year ago (31st). Houston may have found their QB of the future with CJ Stroud who played extremely well last week against Indianapolis. Stroud was 30/47 for 384 passing yards with 2 TD’s. The Texans converted 9 of 19 3rd downs and managed 24 first downs in the game despite losing. The average total points scored in an NFL game this season is 45.4PPG. This game will not be less than average. |
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09-23-23 | Ohio v. Bowling Green UNDER 44.5 | Top | 38-7 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 40 m | Show |
#377/378 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – Ohio vs Bowling Green, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Ohio’s defense has been lights out this season holding their 4 opponents to a combined 47 total points. If we subtract defensive TD’s, they’ve allowed 40 total points or just 10 PPG. Last week vs Big 12 Iowa State they allowed 7 points on a TD with 4:00 minutes to go in the game and ISU had just 38 yards rushing on 1.7 YPC. They rank to 15 nationally in total defense and top 25 in yards per point allowed. The Ohio offense leaves a lot to be desired. They are slow paced (92nd in plays per second) and if we subtract their 27 point “outburst” vs FCS Long Island, they’ve scored 13, 17, and 10 points. The Bobcats rank 115th in YPP offensive efficiency averaging only 4.3 YPP despite facing defenses that allow 6.4, 5.1 and 4.0 YPP. Bowling Green has an offense that is struggling and they’ve slowed their pace this season. Their offense is dead even with Ohio’s averaging only 4.3 YPP this season and after ranking 84th in plays per second last season they’ve dropped to 126th in that stat this season. Their defense isn’t great but they’ve improved allowing 350 YPG vs FBS opponents this year (Liberty & Michigan) after allowing 418 YPG last season. Last week they held a very good Michigan offense to just 312 total yards. This one shapes up to be a low scoring, grinder. Under is the play. |
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09-23-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Illinois -15 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 36 m | Show |
#360 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -15 over Florida Atlantic, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The Illini are just 1-2 on the season but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country thus far already facing the best team in the MAC (Toledo), one of the better teams in the Big 12 (Kansas), and a top 10 team (Penn State). Now they take a big step down in competition and we think Bret Bielema and company are ready to paste someone. This looks like that spot as they face an FAU team that hasn’t been able to score points and now will be playing without their starting QB. The Owls have scored a grand total of 2 offensive TD’s in their 2 games vs FBS opponents (Ohio & Clemson) and both of those came last week @ Clemson when the Tigers already had a 41-0 lead and were already looking ahead to their game this week vs FSU. The Owls have averaged a ridiculously bad 3.3 YPP vs those 2 FBS teams which ranks them 132nd nationally (out of 133 teams). The Illinois defense was fantastic last season ranking 4th nationally in total defense and we expected a step back after losing some key players. They are still much better than they’ve shown thus far vs 3 high level offenses and now they get a reprieve and we expect the defense to shut down FAU. Last week they showed quite well holding a very good PSU offense to 4 YPC and 5.9 yards per pass attempt. This will be the Illini’s 3rd home game this season and in their first 2 they looked solid. They topped a very good Toledo team in week 1 and were impressive offensively averaging 6.1 YPP while holding the Rockets to 5.3 YPP. Last week they lost 30-13 here vs Penn State but that was a bit deceiving. The overall and YPP yardage was very close to even in that game. Problem was Illinois was -5 in turnovers and 4 of those giveaways led directly to 20 of PSU’s 30 points. Illinois does have their Big 10 opener @ Purdue on deck but coming off 2 losses we don’t expect them to be peaking ahead here. Bielema has never been afraid to win big vs inferior competition and he knows his team needs some confidence going into conference play. Blowout here. |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin v. Purdue +6 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 20 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue +6 over Wisconsin, Friday at 7 PM ET - We’re not about to lay points on the road with this transitioning Wisconsin team that has struggled with the changes early in the season. Their opening 21 point win over Buffalo is not all that impressive as the Bulls have since lost to FCS Fordham and then were destroyed at home by Liberty. Their lone road game was a 9 point loss @ Washington State and last week they were tied at 7-7 at home vs Georgia Southern at halftime but SIX GSU turnovers allowed Wisconsin to pull away. For the Badgers to be a 20.5 point favorite and only cover by a half point despite being +6 in turnovers is telling. This UW defense is not on par with previous editions. They don’t have any big time playmakers in the front 7 and their pass defense was shredded last weekend vs Georgia Southern for 383 yards through the air. After 3 games this pass defense ranks outside the top 100 in passing YPG allowed and outside the top 90 in opponent completion percentage. Now they face a solid Purdue passing game with Texas transfer QB Card at the helm who has thrown for 825 yards (65.5% completions) in 3 games. Purdue had a deceiving score as well last week due to turnovers but, unlike Wisconsin, they were the team turning the ball over. The Boilers lost to Syracuse but they were -4 in turnover margin while the total yardage was fairly close. We feel we’re getting some line value here as well. We have Syracuse and Wisconsin currently power rated about dead even yet the Badgers are laying 6 points this week and Cuse laid just 2.5 here last Saturday. UW has dominated this series as of late but their defense looks susceptible and the offense is still learning the ropes of their new scheme. We’ll call for this one to go down to the wire so the points should be valuable. |
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09-22-23 | Rockies v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
#951/952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET - The Rockies are expected to start Noah Davis but whether he starts or whatever opener Colorado uses, we are not overly concerned with the pitching match-up here and will go action on pitchers. That's because the Rockies bullpen has been one of the worst in the league this season and the Cubs bullpen has also had some recent struggles. As for Davis, he has a 9.97 ERA in his 7 MLB appearances (4 starts) in his young career. The Cubs are expected to go with Jameson Taillon as their starter here. He is 1-7 with a 6.86 ERA in his day game appearances this season. Day games at Wrigley Field, even when the wind is more side to side rather than blowing out, do tend to be higher scoring and we like the pattern for the Cubs entering this one as well. Coming off an 8-6 loss to the Pirates yesterday, Chicago is mired in a 1-7 slump but 7 of the 8 games have totaled at least 10 runs! The Cubs are 2-2 last 4 home games and have averaged scoring 8 runs in that stretch. However, Chicago also has allowed an average of 7 runs per game over the last 8 games. The Rockies bats struggled some in their recent series at San Diego but that park is not exactly the most hitter-friendly in the league and the Padres have some tough pitchers. Before a quiet final two games in that series, the Rockies had scored an average of 7 runs in a solid 5-2 stretch over their 7 games before the two duds. Look for their bats to wake up again after yesterday's off-day and now playing in a hitter-friendly venue! Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with double digits in runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early afternoon match-up Friday. |
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09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers -10 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -10 over NY Giants, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Really tough spot here for an NYG team that looks like they’ve regressed from last years playoff team. The Giants were @ Arizona last week and trailed 20-0 at half vs what we consider one of the 3 worst teams in the NFL. That means over their first 6 quarters of play this season, NY went scoreless (lost 40-0 vs Dallas in week 1). They did storm back to win last week 31-28 vs Arizona but San Francisco ain’t Arizona. Now on the west coast for the 2nd straight week (NYG did stay on the west coast after last week’s game but still not an ideal situation) but now facing one of the best defenses in the NFL, if NY gets down here, they won’t be making a huge comeback in our opinion. The Niners look like one of the two best teams in the NFC, along with Dallas, and they’ll be playing their home opener here. We were on SF last week and while they won by a TD (LA Rams kicked FG as time expired) is should really have been worse as the Niners outgained the Rams by +2.0 YPP. QB Purdy missed a few open deep shots that would have blown the game open. The 49ers currently sit 2nd in the NFL averaging 6.3 YPP and we expect them to have plenty of success on Sunday vs a Giant defense that allowed a bad Arizona offense to put up 6.3 YPP. That’s the same Arizona offense that averaged 3.6 YPP in week 1 vs Washington. New York is banged up with 2 starting offensive linemen out along with RB Barkley most likely out and their defense has allowed 68 points in 2 games. San Fran is stronger in the trenches on both sides of the ball and we don’t think NYG can keep up vs this defense. SF should roll here. |
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09-20-23 | Angels v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Rays are expected to start Aaron Civale. He has been victimized a bit by the long ball in recent starts but Civale also has held hitters to a .185 batting average this month and just 26 hits in 31 innings dating back to mid-August while striking out 42 in those 31 innings! Consider that the Angels expected starter here is Reid Detmers and he has a lower ERA in September than Civale but Detmers has been fortunate as opponents are hitting .280 against him in this two starts this month and, by the way, opponents hit .308 against him in the month of August. Detmers is 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA this season in his dozen road starts. Civale is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA in night games this season and he has held hitters to a .215 batting average in those dozen starts. As we mentioned here yesterday, this Angels team has already packed it in for the season. Ohtani is now shut down for the season and they unloaded some veterans when they could with only Grichuk - now one of their top veteran hitters in the lineup - being stuck with the team. Trout has still been out and may not even play again this season. If you look at their current lineup they are fielding on a regular basis of late, it is no wonder that the Angels have lost 6 straight games and been outscored 38 to 13 in those 6 defeats. This Angels team is struggling badly and done for the year. The Rays are still in a battle for both the AL East title as well as the top record in the AL. Though the Rays entered this series off B2B losses, TB was on a 29-13 run prior to these consecutive defeats. As we mentioned here yesterday, they are happy to be back home after that tough series at Baltimore. Now, after yesterday's 6-2 win over the Angels, Tampa Bay has won 13 of last 17 on their home field. 10 of last 11 Rays home wins have come by at least 2 runs. 20 of last 26 Angels losses by at least 2 runs. This one should be another one that falls into that multi-run margin category! We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and having to lay only very small juice with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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09-19-23 | Angels v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Rays are expected to start Taj Bradley. He has been victimized a bit by the long ball in recent starts but Bradley also has held hitters to a .226 batting average since the All-Star break while striking out 38 over 29 innings! Consider that the Angels expected starter here is Patrick Sandoval and he is 0-3 with a 6.59 ERA and opponents hitting .333 against him in the month of September. Sandoval has really been struggling and though Bradley's numbers have not been great, this Angels team has already packed it in for the season. Ohtani is now shut down for the season and they unloaded some veterans when they could with only Grichuk - now one of their top veteran hitters in the lineup - being stuck with the team. Trout is still out and may not even play again this season. If you look at their current lineup they are fielding on a regular basis of late, it is no wonder that the Angels have lost 5 straight games and been outscored 32 to 11 in those 5 defeats. This Angels team is struggling badly and done for the year. The Rays are still in a battle for the AL East title and top record in the AL. Though off B2B losses, TB was on a 29-13 run prior to these consecutive defeats. They are happy to be back home after a tough series at Baltimore and Tampa Bay has won 12 of last 16 on their home field. 9 of last 10 Rays home wins by at least 2 runs. 19 of last 25 Angels losses by at least 2 runs. This one should be another one that falls into that multi-run margin category! We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any juice with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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09-18-23 | Brewers -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
#955 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over St Louis Cardinals, Monday at 7:45 PM ET - Freddy Peralta expected to start for Milwaukee and he is 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA since the All-Star break and has held hitters to a .159 batting average in those 11 starts! Adam Wainwright is having a rough season and is off his first win since the All-Star break. Though he got the win in that game Wainwright actually had a WHIP of 2.00 in the start with 7 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings. Wainwright was far from dominant and his rough season includes a 1-7 mark with an 8.29 ERA since the All-Star break in his 9 starts. On the season, opponents are hitting .354 against him. St Louis off a win over the Phillies yesterday but had lost 11 of 17 games heading into that one including 9 of last 13 home games prior to the tight win versus Philadelphia Sunday. The Cardinals are dead last in the NL Central while the Brewers had won 3 straight games prior to yesterday's loss and remain at the top of the same division - the NL Central. Of course the Brewers are a rather high-priced money line favorite here for good reason. Where we get the value is with the run line and laying the 1.5 runs. The Cardinals have 58 of 83 losses this season by at least a 2-run margin. 57 of Milwaukee's 84 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. The Brewers last dozen wins have all been by multi-run margins and the average margin of victory was 4.3 runs in those 12 wins! The Cardinals have been slumping overall and 17 of their last 19 defeats have been by at least 2 runs! This game has road rout written all over it. We like the Brewers to bounce back back from yesterday's loss to the Nationals and Milwaukee gets it done on the run line in this one. |
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09-18-23 | Saints -3 v. Panthers | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #289 New Orleans Saints -3 at Carolina Panthers, Monday 7:15PM ET - The Panthers look like a team that is in for a long season. They’ve been hit hard on their offensive line already this season and start a rookie QB in Young. Young threw 2 INT’s last week and the offense managed just 3.9YPPL against a Falcons D that allowed 5.7YPPL in 2022. It will be tough sledding Monday night against a Saints defense that was 4th in Yards Per Play allowed a year ago at 5.0. The Saints hung on for a win in Week 1 against the Titans and looked much better than the 16-15 final margin. New Orleans put up over 350-total yards and averaged 5.5YPPL. Defensively they held the Titans to 285-total yards and 4.9YPPL. Saints QB Carr looked good in his Saint’s debut going 23/33 for 305YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT. If Young felt pressure last week against the Falcons, just wait until he gets a load of this Saints pass rush. To make this point, the Falcons, ranked 32nd or last in the NFL in sack percentage defense a year ago. In comparison, this Saints defense was 4th best in sack% at 8.22% in 2022. Last season the Panthers defense was around league average in YPPL allowed at 5.5. They were 23rd in opponents’ completion percentage allowed and 14th in Yards Per completion allowed at 10.1. Last week the Panthers D wasn’t tested by a Falcons passing attack that averaged just 6.1 yards per completion. Today Carolina’s secondary will get a stiff test from a Saints offense that wants to push the football down the field. The Saints lost to this Panthers team twice last season but outgained them in both meetings. Historically, the Panthers haven’t been anything special as a home dog but the Saints have been impressive as a road favorite with a 15-9 ATS record their last 24 with a +/- of +9PPG. Lay the points with the double-revenge road chalk. |
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09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 26 m | Show |
#287/288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 46.5 Points - Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Our words of advice for Week #2 in the NFL are to not overreact to Week #1’s results. Miami is coming off a really high scoring game against the Chargers with 70-total points. New England is coming off a 45-point total against the Eagles. Those results have driven the O/U number up for this AFC East rivalry which puts us squarely on the Under. Miami averaged a ridiculous 8.2-Yards Per Play last week against the Chargers after averaging 6.0 YPP last season. That was against a bad Chargers defense that ranked 21st in YPP D a year ago. New England just held a Philadelphia offense to 4.1 YPP after the Eagles averaged 5.8 YPP a season ago. Last season the Fish averaged 23.8 PPG (11th) and allowed 24.1 PPG. (24th). New England scored 21.4 PPG (16th) and gave up 20.4 PPG (11th). Miami scored 30+ points themselves six times last season but four of those games came against the Bears, Lions, Texans and Browns who all ranked 19th or worse in PPG allowed. In games involving the Patriots last season only 6 games (in regulation) finished with more than 46.5 total points. The Pats offense scored more than 26-points just three times. These two rivals have combined for more than this O/U number 1 time in the last six meetings and three times in the last ten. New England coach Belichick just watched L.A. pound out over 230 rushing yards and will take a conservative approach in this game with a run first mentality. |
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09-17-23 | 49ers -7 v. Rams | Top | 30-23 | Push | 0 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
#281 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers -7 over Los Angeles Rams, Sunday 4 PM ET - This line opened -4.5 and was quickly bet through several key numbers including 7 but we don’t feel the move is enough and will back San Francisco. The Rams are coming off a win in Seattle, but they did so with a revamped O-line which the Seahawks couldn’t take advantage of and pressure Stafford. L.A. also were thin at WR without Kupp (on PUP) and yet had two receivers go over 100-yards each. Was the Rams winning an indicator of how good they could be this season, or was it a better indicator of Seattle and what they are this season? The 49ers went into Pittsburgh and destroyed a Steelers team that many experts projected as a surprise team in the AFC this season. The Niners defense held the Steelers to 41-rushing yards after that unit averaged 121 YPG rushing a year ago. San Francisco outgained Pittsburgh 5.9 YPP to just 3.9 YPP in their dominating 30-7 win. The 49ers beat the Rams twice last season and have won 8 of the last nine meetings. In the two games last season the Niners outgained the Rams 6.7 YPP to 3.5 YPP and 7.1 YPP to 4.0 YPP in both games. They won by 17 and 15 points respectively. San Francisco had the second-best average Margin of Victory last season at +8.7 PPG. The Rams had the 28th worst average MOV at minus -4.5 PPG. We won’t be scared off by the move. Lay it! |
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09-17-23 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Washington Nationals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - Brandon Woodruff is 18-5 combined the past two seasons! The Brewers right-hander has a 1.93 ERA this season and opponents are hitting just .161 against him. Patrick Corbin is 27-55 the past 4 seasons combined. His ERA is currently above 5.00 and this is the third straight season that the Nationals left-hander is producing an ERA above the 5.00 level. Corbin is off a rare quality start at Pittsburgh but this was preceded by allowing 14 earned runs in 9 innings over his two prior starts. Washington has lost 5 straight games and is dead last in the NL East while the Brewers have won 3 straight and are at the top of the NL Central! Of course the Brewers are a high-priced money line favorite here for good reason. Where we get the value is with the run line and laying the 1.5 runs. The Nationals have 64 of 84 losses this season by at least a 2-run margin. 57 of Milwaukee's 84 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. The Brewers last dozen wins have all been by multi-run margins and the average margin of victory was 4.3 runs in those 12 wins! The Nationals are mired in a 4-15 slump and 13 of their last 14 defeats have been by at least 2 runs! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one. |
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09-16-23 | James Madison v. Troy -2.5 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 30 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Troy -2.5 over James Madison, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Troy is back home after getting waxed @ Kansas State last week which wasn’t a big surprise as the Wildcats are one of the better teams in the country. In that loss we were impressed with Troy’s defense as they held a very good KSU offense to 5.7 YPP and on the ground the Cats averaged less than 4.0 YPC. It was a 2 score game early in the 4th quarter when KSU added a few late TD’s to make this score look worse than in probably should have been at 42-13. The Trojans won their first game big over Stephen F Austin (a decent FCS team) despite turning the ball over 4 times they had 523 yards of offense. Now we get last year’s Sun Belt Champs (Troy), who finished 12-2 last season, back at home with a light number. We haven’t been overly impressed with JMU through their first 2 games. They are 2-0 but wins over FCS Bucknell, who has a 5-21 record their last 26 games, and a come from behind win over a bad Virginia team last week. That was a huge win for James Madison taking down the instate big boy UVA but let’s not forget JMU was nearly a TD favorite on the road in that game and won 36-35 on a TD with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game. The Cavs are one of the worst Power 5 teams in the nation and JMU was outplayed in that 1 point win. UVA led that game by double digits in the 4th quarter, outgained the Dukes on a YPP basis, and the Cavs true freshman QB (back up but playing for injured starter) who stands 5’11 and has zero experience threw for 377 yards on the James Madison defense. They put up 35 points on JMU after scoring 10 points in their opener vs Tennessee. UVA averaged 6.5 YPP vs James Madison last weekend after averaging just 3.0 YPP vs the Vols. Looks like we have a big edge defensively with the host here and the Trojans also have a very experienced QB Watson (4 year starter) has thrown for over 7,000 yards in his career. Dating back to early in the 2021 season, Troy has now won 11 of their last 12 home games and we’re more than comfortable laying this small number with them on Saturday. |
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09-16-23 | LSU -9 v. Mississippi State | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
#131 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LSU -9.5 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - LSU got a lot of negative publicity for getting rolled in their season opener vs Florida State but they bounced back last week, in what could have been a flat spot vs Grambling, and won big 72-10. Even a closer look at that FSU game tells us the Tigers played pretty well for about 3 quarters before the wheels fell off against what most now consider a top 5 team in the country. That game vs Florida State was tied at 17-17 late in the 3rd quarter and LSU averaged over 7.0 YPP and the total yardage was pretty close with the Noles having a slight advantage. The 21 point FSU win was a bit deceiving. MSU has been underwhelming under new head coach Zach Arnett who was the Bulldogs DC but took over late last year when Mike Leach passed away. Arnett has never been a head coach prior to this so advantage to veteran Brian Kelly and LSU in that regard. MSU’s new offensive coordinator has tried to get away from the full air raid type offense and run the ball more, although it looks like the personnel that was recruited for the air raid doesn’t necessarily fit the new scheme. So far in 2 games, the Bulldogs have run the ball 78 times while attempting only 46 passes. That’s from an MSU team that AVERAGED 49 pass attempts per game last year leading the nation. And it’s not like they’ve been lighting it up on the ground. Last week the Dogs averaged just 3.7 YPC vs an Arizona defense that allowed 5.5 YPC last year ranking 128th nationally. Mississippi State won that game 31-24 in OT but they were outgained by 125 yards, the Dogs were +4 in turnover margin for the game, and it still took OT for them to win that game at home vs a lower tier Pac 12 team. Now they are facing an LSU team that we still have power rated as one of the top 10 teams in the nation. Last year when these 2 met, it was early in the season, MSU was considered the better team at the time, LSU was still learning Brian Kelly’s systems in his first year as HC, and the Tigers still won by 15 points outgained the Bulldogs 419 to 289. Now the roles are reversed and we see LSU cruising in this game vs an MSU offense that will struggle and a defense that allowed 6.0 YPP to Arizona last week. Lay it. |
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09-15-23 | Rangers -118 v. Guardians | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -120 over Cleveland Guardians, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The red hot Rangers have won 6 straight games and have Jonathan Gray on the mound for this one. He is off a rare bad start and we look for him to bounce right back here. Gray has a 3.43 ERA on the road this season and has allowed a batting average of only .220 away from home this season. Lucas Giolito has been trending the opposite direction and getting absolutely crushed in terms of homers allowed. Giolito has given up 3 homers in 3 straight starts! Yes, 9 homers over his last 3 starts. He has allowed multi-homer games in 6 of his last 10 starts! Giolito is now on his 3rd team this season and the 2nd half of this season has been a nightmare for him. Since the All-Star break Giolito is 1-8 with an 8.06 ERA. The Rangers are off a 9-2 win yesterday and have averaged scoring 8 runs per game in their current winning streak of 6 games! The Guardians have been going the other direction with losses in 8 of 11 games! We really like Texas in this spot. Regardless of the pitchers we have the hotter team here but we definitely also do have a starting pitching edge. Gray is highly unlikely to have back to back bad starts while Giolito has consistently been roughed up. Lay it with the road team in this one! Take the Rangers |
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09-15-23 | Army v. UTSA UNDER 45 | Top | 37-29 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 1 m | Show |
#111/112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45 Points – Army vs UTSA, Friday at 7 PM ET - Last year UTSA’s offense was the strength of their team, this year it’s definitely been the defense. The offense has struggled with a new offensive coordinator scoring only 37 points combined in their 2 games. Defensively they’ve allowed only 30 points on the season in 2 games and their run defense has been fantastic allowing only 2 YPC which will come in handy vs Army on Thursday. The Cadets also have a new offensive coordinator and while they are trying to throw the ball more often (27 pass attempts in 2 games) the fact is they don’t have the personnel to be very successful through the air and they are still a heavy run team (50 rush attempts per game – 5th nationally). Army continues to be a very slow paced team as well averaging only 1 play every 34 seconds which is the 3rd slowest pace in the nation so far this season. If we throw out last week’s result when they faced a bad FCS team (Delaware State), Army scored only 13 points vs UL Monroe and their only TD in that game was scored by their defense. That was facing a ULM defense that ranked 108th last season in total defense. On the other side of the ball, the Cadets only allowed 17 points in that game vs ULM with both Warhawk TD’s coming in the final 6:00 minutes of the game. UTSA has faced the Army offense 3 of the last 4 seasons, including holding the Cadets to 3.2 YPC last season, so they know how to defend it. Last year was a high scoring game in OT, however the previous 2 totaled 42 and 44 points. We like this one to stay Under the total. |
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09-13-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -112 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
#918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -120 over Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET - Texas picked up the win here last night topping the Blue Jays 6-3. That’s 4 straight wins for the Rangers but Toronto, prior to B2B losses to open up this series, had wins in their last 4 home games and we like them to get another one tonight to get right back on track. The offense has been up and down this season for Toronto but they are still a top ten offense in the league and we expect them to have success tonight vs Jordan Montgomery. The Rangers southpaw has been crushed in both his starts this month. Also, Montgomery has a 2-6 record in his road starts this season while the Jays Yusei Kikuchi has been great at home this season. The Blue Jays left-hander is 5-2 at home this season and has held hitters to a .220 batting average in his 13 starts here. In his 10 starts since the All-Star break, Kikuchi has a 2.44 ERA and has held hitters to a .234 batting average. The Jays also have the much better bullpen in this match-up when you consider ERA numbers on the season. Toronto ranks 5th and Texas ranks 26th for bullpen ERA! The Rangers have won 4 straight but this was on the heels of a 4-16 run! Texas had been slumping to say the least and now we get value with the Jays at home and with a big pitching edge in terms of starters and bullpen here. The Jays, prior to losing the first two games of this series, had won 8 of 10 games. Toronto should resume their heater here as they have done a great job of avoiding losing streaks this season. This one should end at 2 for the Blue Jays at home per all of the above. The Rangers entered this series with a losing road record on the season. The Jays play in the tough AL East and have a sub-par divisional record but they entered this series 68-38 against non-divisional foes. We have this money line set higher in favor of the Jays so our value is on Toronto tonight. |
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09-12-23 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 or 9 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Rather low total considering the strength of these two lineups and the way yesterday's double-header played out. However, this one will play out like a playoff game and is set up to be a pitchers duel. Based on bullpen ERA the Phillies are ranked 4th in the National League and the Braves are ranked 1st in the National League. As for the starting pitchers here, the Braves Max Fried is 7-1 with a 2.70 ERA this season and he has allowed just 10 earned runs in his last 5 starts. He has been dominant. As for the Phillies Zack Wheeler, he has a 2.60 ERA and has held hitters to a .185 batting average - these stats in his 10 starts since the All-Star break. Wheeler is happy to be at home for this start as 7 of his last 9 starts have been on the road. Even in that road-heavy stretch, Wheeler has allowed only 16 earned runs in those 9 starts. Both pitchers have been dominating the 2nd half of the MLB season and, as the old adage goes, it is very true that good pitching tops good hitting! Possible playoff preview here and this one will be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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09-11-23 | Angels v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
#926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Mariners to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Seattle is expected to send Logan Gilbert to the mound to start this one. As for the Angels, Reid Detmers will be the likely starter for Los Angeles here. Seattle's Gilbert is 13-5 this season and he has a 3.34 ERA in night games. He is 8-0 since July 1st and has an ERA under 3.00 since then! The Angels Detmers is 3-10 this season including 1-6 with a 5.60 ERA on the road this season. Detmers is 1-4 with a 5.80 ERA since the All-Star break. The Mariners have lost 3 straight games but they just faced the Rays in Tampa Bay. They now go from facing one of the best teams in baseball on the road to now hosting one of the majors' worst teams. Yes the Angels are in a free-fall despite rare B2B wins. They were outhit 8 to 3 in yesterday's 2-1 win and if you look at their lineup it is currently a shell of what it used to be. No wonder the Angels had lost 26 of 35 games prior to the rare B2B wins. By the way, LA has not won 3 straight games since July so the odds certainly favor Seattle getting the win here. In terms of a big-margin win, 16 of the Angels last 20 losses have been by 2 or more runs. Also, the Mariners have one of the top bullpens in MLB while the Angels have one of the worst. Also, Seattle has not lost 4 straight games since April so this is a great spot from a technical standpoint in terms of putting the odds in our favor. Angels off B2B wins, Mariners off 3 straight losses, and the likelihood (based on odds) of what comes next! Seattle is 24-12 in divisional games this season and 57 of Mariners 79 wins this season have been by a multi-run margin. All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Mariners. Lay it! |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 45.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 33 m | Show |
#481/482 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under the total – Buffalo vs NY Jets, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Jets defense was fantastic last season and they had the Bills number to say the least. Buffalo scored just 37 total points in 2 games vs NY (17 & 20 points) and they scored TD’s on only 4 of their 22 offensive possessions vs New York last season. That’s only an 18% TD rate and to put that into perspective, against everyone else not named the Jets, the Bills scored TD’s on 29% of their offensive possessions. Not surprising as NYJ let the NFL allowing TD’s on only 15% of opponents possessions, let the NFL in YPP allowed and finished 4th in total defense. We expect Buffalo to struggle offensively again in this game. On the other side, the Jets bring over Aaron Rodgers from GB but let’s face it, he had a terrible season in 2022. His worst QBR rating of his career ranking 26th in the NFL. Can he turn it around this season? Maybe but he’ll have to do so behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL which is far from ideal. He's also working with new skill players and played only a few snaps in the preseason so it may take some time to fine tune this offense. He’s facing a very solid Buffalo defense that ranked in the top 10 in total defense, YPP allowed, and they gave up only 19 PPG (4th in the league). Seven of the last eight meetings between these 2 AFC East rivals have ended to total points of less than 45 which is the current number. Six of those games have totaled 37 points or fewer. Another Under on Monday Night. |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 40-0 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
#480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY GIANTS + over DALLAS, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - First off, we love looking at home underdogs vs a division opponent in week 1. That situation has been money in the bank with the host dogs covering 21 of the last 26 in that spot. On top of that, division dogs in general in week 1 are 41-21 ATS over the last decade. Dallas gets all the publicity in this one but let’s not forget the Giants made the playoffs last season and won a game @ 13-4 Minnesota in the Wild Card round. We really like NYG head coach Daboll and now they are in their 2nd year under him so we look for an improved team in 2023. We’re hearing QB Daniel Jones played outstanding in camp and has a great grasp of the offense in his 2nd season under OC Kafka and Daboll. Dallas was 8-1 at home last season but only 4-4 on the road. QB Dak Prescott didn’t play in the pre-season which we feel is a negative for the offense in game 1 and he led the NFL in interceptions last year despite missing 5 games. He also loses his offensive coordinator Moore who is now with the Chargers and HC Mike McCarthy will call plays which we think is a negative. The Giants defensive line is one of the best in the NFL and we look for an improved secondary with some additions through free agency and the draft. Dallas won both games last season but both were tight 1 score games and we really expect NYG to be drastically improved. This line tells us Dallas is 6 points better on a neutral and if this was in Dallas be laying almost 10 – No way – we’re not so sure NYG won’t be the better team this season. Take the points. |
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09-09-23 | Wisconsin v. Washington State OVER 57.5 | Top | 22-31 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
#325/326 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 57.5 Points – Wisconsin vs Washington State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - These 2 met last year and Wazzou won 17-14 in a lower scoring game but the script flips this weekend in Pullman. Last year the Badgers offense was fairly pedestrian ranking 74th nationally in scoring (25 PPG) and 89th in total offense (357 YPG) yet still put up over 400 yards on this Cougar defense. Multiple mistakes (3 turnover & 11 penalties) kept their scoring output much lower than it should have been. Last week, under new OC Longo who came over for UNC, the Badgers rolled up 38 points (dropped TD pass would have made it 45) and over 500 yards vs a Buffalo team that had a winning record last year and won their bowl game. Wisconsin also is a much more up tempo team this year under Longo and they ran 71 snaps last week. Their defense, as we suspected, looks like they’ve taken a step back. They lost their top 2 pass rushers and they weren’t able to put any pressure on Buffalo QB Snyder with 0 sacks on the day. This week they face a very accomplished passer in Cam Ward (451 yards passing last week) and he is very elusive. If UW couldn’t get any pressure at home vs a MAC team, we doubt they bother Ward much this week. Wazzou has a new OC Arbuckle who came over from Western Kentucky, one of the fastest paced teams in college football last year. They showed last week that’s the way they will play this year as well with 87 offensive snaps, 3rd most of any team last weekend, in a 50-24 win over Colorado State. Defensively Washington State allowed a CSU team, that averaged 13 PPG last season (127th nationally) to put up 24 points last Saturday. Both defenses are facing much tougher situations this week and we’re not sure either will be able to stop the other’s offense. We like Over the total here. |