Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-28-22 | Kansas +3 v. Arkansas | Top | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 90 h 24 m | Show |
#247 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas +3 over Arkansas, Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Love this spot for KU. First of all, they are thrilled to be here in the Liberty Bowl having not played in a bowl game since 2008. Arkansas we’re not so sure. We take that back, we’re actually pretty positive they aren’t overly excited about this bowl game. That’s because they finished 9-4 last year, won their January 1st bowl vs Penn State, and had very high aspirations coming into this season. A 6-6 season and a bid to the Liberty Bowl is not what they expected. The Razors have had as many defections as any team in college football which speaks to their probable lack of excitement for this game. All together, players who started a combined 95 games — 50 on offense and 45 on defense — for the Razorbacks will not play against Kansas. That is more than one-third of their total starts on both sides of the ball. The Razorbacks who won’t play against Kansas accounted for 3,410 offensive snaps (34.3% of all snaps), 2,583 defensive snaps (26.0%) and 787 special teams snaps (19.3%) according to Pro Football Focus. Not only is the motivation factor heavily in favor of the Jayhawks, their stats for the season were simply better as well. KU had a +1.2 YPP differential while Arkansas was -0.2 and believe it or not, according to the Sagarin ratings, Kansas actually played the tougher strength of schedule (4th vs 23rd). Jayhawk starting QB Daniels missed 5 games this season and they were 1-4 in those games. In the games where he started and played to the end, KU was 5-2. He’s back and healthy for this one which should be a big boost to the offense and they are facing an Arkansas defense that finished the season ranked 123rd nationally. Kansas had their struggles on defense as well, however with Arkansas missing a multitude of weapons, including 3 starting WR’s and TE, we’re not sure they can take complete advantage in this one. Jayhawk HC Leipold was an absolute fantastic post-season coach at the D3 level leading UW Whitewater to a ridiculous 6 National Championships. When he took over a downtrodden Buffalo program, he led them to 3 bowls (2-1 record) winning his last 2 by a combined score of 48-19. He’ll have this team more than ready to go on Wednesday. We like Kansas to win this game outright and getting +3 is a bonus cushion. |
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12-28-22 | Central Florida v. Duke -3 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
#246 ASA PLAY ON 8* Duke -3 over UCF, Wednesday at 2 PM ET - Duke is thrilled to be here and highly motivated to win this game. The Devils haven’t been in a bowl game since 2018 and they drastically outplayed their projections under first year head coach Mike Elko. Unlike many teams that have a laundry list of guys opting out and heading to the transfer portal, Duke have just 3 players in the portal and none were significant contributors. This team had a season total set at 3 wins and they step into this game with an 8-4 record having won 4 of their last 5. Duke has also outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they were 3-1 ATS vs the other bowl teams they faced this year and outgained 3 of those 4 teams as well. UCF lost by 17 points vs Tulane in the AAC Championship game so instead of playing a game vs USC on January 2nd, they are stuck in this game which falls well below where they expected to be this season. Unlike Duke, the Golden Knights have been heading the wrong direction failing to cover their last 3 games by a combined 43 points. In those final 3 they lost to a 4-8 Navy team as a 2 TD favorite, nearly lost to a bad USF team as a 20 point favorite (UCF scored a TD late to win by 7) and got walloped by Tulane and outgained by 240 yards. The Knights starting QB Rhys is really banged up with multiple injuries and may not play which would leave them with a freshman QB who is 3rd straight because their back up already left the program. If Rhys plays, he’s nowhere near 100%. On top of that, their top WR O’Keefe (73 receptions) left the program and their offensive coordinator took the same job at UNC. Too much going on with UCF for them to be fully focused here while Duke is more than ready. Lay the small number. |
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12-27-22 | Hawks -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks -1.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:40PM ET The Pacers were essentially blown out in New Orleans last night as they trailed big early on and were never competitive. Tonight they return home to face a Hawks team that is finally getting healthy. The Hawks had their starting five back for their game against the Pistons on Dec 23rd and won 130-105. Atlanta comes into this game fresh and with a huge match up advantage over the Pacers. Last season the Hawks won (and covered) all 4 meetings with the Pacers including a pair of wins on this court. Atlanta should get plenty of second-chance opportunities in this game with their 10th best offensive rebounding unit going up against the Pacers 28th ranked defensive rebounding. Indiana also relies heavily on their 3-points shooting (11th) but the Hawks hold opponents to the 4th lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA. In their last five games the Hawks have a +/- of +6.4PPG. The Pacers have a negative differential of minus -4.2PPG in that same stretch. Take the visiting Hawks in this one. |
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12-26-22 | Chargers -4 v. Colts | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
#481 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers -4 over Indianapolis Colts, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Indianapolis has to be mentally shot coming into this game. After blowing their 33 point lead last week @ Minnesota (Led 33-0 at half and LOST) they are officially out of the playoff race. They also lost RB Taylor for the season in that game and will not now be starting Nick Foles at QB, their 3rd different starter this season. He has not taken a snap in a game this season. Not much to play for here and we wouldn’t expect a high level effort here from a team that has massively underachieved this season. Since beating Las Vegas in interim head coach Jeff Saturday’s debut, the Colts have lost 4 straight getting outgained in each game. Their defense has allowed 117 points in the last 3 games (39 PPG) and the Indy offense had been held under 20 points in 6 of their last 8 games. Even their offensive “breakout” last week vs the worst defense in the NFL (Minnesota) was aided by 2 non offensive TD’s so the offense really only scored 17 points. The Colts have scored a touchdown on 12.7% of their drives, tied with the Broncos for the lowest rate in the league. The Chargers are starting to play well winning 3 of their last 4 games. They are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot and a win here, plus a few other things that need to happen, could take care of that. The last 2 weeks LA has topped Miami & Tennessee outgaining those 2 by a combined 400 yards. The Chargers are getting healthy on both sides of the ball and we have a HUGE edge at QB here with Herbert vs Foles. Lay it. |
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12-26-22 | Clippers -5.5 v. Pistons | 142-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
ASA play on: LA Clippers -5.5 vs. Detroit Pistons, 7 :10pm ET The Clippers have adapted to playing without Kawhi Leonard, so we’re not concerned about him being out tonight. The Pistons are dealing with the loss of Cade Cunningham and haven’t fared as well with a 5-game losing streak and a 2-8 SU record in their last ten games. Detroit is averaging just 108.6PPG and allowing 123PPG in their last five games. The Pistons offense is one of the worst in the NBA in points, FG%, 3PT% and rebounding. Tonight, it’s going to be especially tough to put points up against a Clippers defense that is top 4 in points, FG%, 3PT% and most importantly rank 2nd in defensive efficiency. LA is 5-2 SU their last seven games and are coming off a close loss in Philadelphia last Friday. The Clippers have won 7 straight in this series and are in line for an 8th win and cover tonight. |
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12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Denver has started playing much better in recent weeks covering 3 straight. Their offense has scored 52 points the last 2 weeks combined which is more than they put up the previous 4 weeks combined. In their last 3 games they led the entire way @ Baltimore before a Raven’s FG with under 1 minute remaining gave them a 1 point win, they lost by 6 at home vs KC and had the ball in Chiefs territory late with a chance to win, and then last week they beat Arizona 24-15. Since week 10, this Denver offense has scored TD’s on 80% of their red zone drives which is 1st in the NFL. Their defense remains very good ranking 4th in both total defense and YPP allowed. While the Bronco’s offense is starting to peak, LA’s offense continues to stink. They rank dead last in the NFL in total offense, YPP, and 31st in scoring at 16 PPG. Last week vs Green Bay the Rams tallied 156 TOTAL yards on 3.6 YPP and put up 12 points. QB Baker Mayfield was terrible completing just 12 total pass for barely 100 yards. A week earlier LA had 3 points vs a bad Raider defense with less than 4:00 minutes remaining in the game before scoring 2 late TD’s for 17 total points. Now they face one of the top defenses in the NFL and we just don’t see much offense for LA. Mayfield has been bad all year completing under 60% of his passes and ranking right at the bottom of the league in QBR. LA has very little to NO home field advantage and with this game being on Christmas Day we suspect that it will be even less. Russell Wilson is back under center and while he’s had a disappointing season, his 2 highest QBR ratings were his last 2 games so he’s trending up along with the Denver offense. We like Denver to win this game by more than a FG. |
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12-24-22 | Lions v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 23-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
#458 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Detroit Lions, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Detroit is a bit overvalued right now after winning 6 of the last 7 and covering 7 straight. Now they are favored on the road vs a team that, like them, is still battling for a playoff spot. In fact, if Carolina wins out, they are in the playoffs so still a ton to play for. Detroit hasn’t been a road favorite yet this season and in their last 20 road games they’ve been favored once and lost that game outright. Last week they won by 3 vs the Jets but that took a late 51 yard TD. Historically this Detroit team has been horrendous as a road favorite with a spread record of 22-40 ATS in that role since 1980. Since firing HC Matt Rhule, Carolina has actually played quite well. Prior to last week’s loss they had won 3 of their previous 4 games. The Panthers are coming off a loss as a home favorite vs Pittsburgh while Detroit is coming off a road dog upset win over NY Jets which sets this up very nicely for the home team. Carolina is a bit undervalued right now getting points at home despite covering 6 of their last 8 games. This line looks to easy to take the Lions as we expect many will. We’ll take the home dog as teams getting points at home are 49-37 ATS on the year with underdogs in general covering almost 55% of the time in 2022. Tough spot for Detroit in their 2nd straight on the road after an upset win last week. |
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12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat -6 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - There is some value in this number as the Pacers were just +9.5 points at Boston and +8 at Cleveland. In fact, these two teams played on Dec. 12th in Indy and the Heat were favored by -3.5-points there which means this line should be higher than it is. We also like the situation with the Pacers off a big upset win in Boston, while the Heat are off an upset home loss to the Bulls. Miami had won 4 straight games and seemed to be finding their groove which has been missing for much of the season early on. Both teams are 16-16 SU on the season, but we feel the Heat can contend in the East, but the Pacers cannot. Miami has a clear advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA compared to the Pacers 19th rank. Indiana is better overall in offensive efficiency this season but in their last five games the Pacers OEFF is 1.096 which ranks 26th in the NBA. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS their last six when coming off a win. Since the start of last season, the Heat are 29-20 ATS when coming off a loss. We will acknowledge the Heat have been horrible ATS at home this season with a 3-12-1 record but that means a correction is in order. |
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12-23-22 | Clippers v. 76ers -3 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3 vs LA Clippers, 7:10 PM ET - The Sixers are playing at another level right now with 6 straight wins to improve to 18-12 on the season. At home they are 13-5 SU with an average +/- of plus +6.8PPG which ranks 9th best. The Clippers are also playing well and are starting to get healthy but this will be their first road game since Dec 10th. LA is 8-7 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. The Clippers have a +9PPG average Margin of Victory in their last five games (all at home) but the 76ers are better yet at +14.6PPG in their last five. Philly has the 9th best offensive efficiency rating in the league's last 5-game span compared to the Clippers who rank 28th. Los Angeles has the best overall DEFF ratings in the last five games but the 76ers are 2nd. Philadelphia has covered 10 of the last thirteen and will get another win and cover here. |
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12-22-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -7.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Pelicans have hit a rough patch of games with 4 straight losses but let’s consider who those L’s came against. They lost a pair of games to a hot Jazz team, lost in Phoenix and home to the Bucks. Off that home loss we like them to explode with a big win today against the Spurs. San Antonio got a road win last time out against the Rockets but now steps up in class to face the Pelicans. New Orleans has the 8th best scoring differential at home this season of +7.8PPG and a 12-4 SU record. The Spurs have a respectable 5-8 SU road record but they are getting beat by an average of -8.9PPG which is the 3rd highest average in the NBA. San Antonio is one of, if not the worst defense team in the NBA ranking 30th in points allowed per game, FG% defense and 3-point percentage D. They are also mid-20’s in most offensive categories. The Pelicans are 7th in DEFF and 5th in OEFF and the far superior team in this setting and playing with a chip on their shoulders. New Orleans has faced the Spurs twice this season in San Antonio and was favored by -5.5 and -7.5 points in those two games. Even without Zion Williamson this is a bargain. |
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12-22-22 | Seattle University v. Utah State -9.5 | Top | 56-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -9.5 over Seattle, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Hawaii. USU was 9-0 on the season heading into their home game on Monday night vs Weber State. We’re guessing they were looking ahead to this trip to Hawaii as they lost by 3 points at home as a 17 point favorite. Utah State blew an 18 point lead in that game and you can bet they’ll be ready for a bounce back performance here. Prior to that loss the Aggies had been fantastic this season with 8 of their 9 wins coming by double digits including 6 vs top 150 teams. They play fast and are a tough team to keep up with offensively averaging 87 PPG while ranking #1 in the nation in 3 point percentage (43%). The way to beat this USU team is to slow the game down and make them play long possessions in the half court. That won’t happen here as Seattle likes to play fast as well which plays right into Utah State’s hands. Seattle is 8-2 but they’ve played the much easier schedule facing only 2 teams all season ranked inside the top 150. USU will be by far the best team Seattle has played this season. The only other top 100 team they’ve faced was Washington who beat the Redhawks by double digits. USU should get to the line a lot here as well as Seattle fouls a lot with over 23% of their opponents points coming from the stripe (25th most nationally). Not great as USU hits 76% of their FT’s as a team. We’re going to get an angry Utah State team here off a loss and we expect an easy win. |
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12-22-22 | Flyers +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | 3-4 | Win | 121 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Toronto Maple Leafs, Thursday at 2:05 PM ET - Toronto is the better team of course but this is a bad spot for the Maple Leafs and yet they are laying a huge price on the money line here and even laying a sizable price on the puck line too. The Leafs are off huge divisional win over the Lightning which was only the 4th time in last 8 games that Toronto has won a game by a multi-goal margin. The Flyers have won only 4 of last 11 games but those 7 losses included 4 by just a single goal. That means that Philadelphia has only 3 multi-goal losses in last 11 games. Considering that plus the situational factor here with Maple Leafs off huge win over division rival Tampa Bay, the set-up here is perfect for a tight game. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with road dog Philadelphia is the value play here. |
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12-21-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +1.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
#714 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +1.5 over Clemson, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. Clemson had the better record at 9-3 compared to GT at 7-4 but they’ve played the easier strength of schedule. The Tigers have played 4 games away from home (true away + neutral) and they’ve won only 1 of those games vs Loyola Chicago on a neutral site. In their one true road game they lost @ South Carolina who currently sits with at 5-6 record. The Tigers only win away from home was by 8 points on a neutral site vs a California team that is currently 0-12. Tech is 6-0 at home and their 4 losses are all vs teams ranked in the top 50, all higher than this Clemson team. The Tigers scores 35.5% of their points from 3 (77th nationally) and they are facing the best 3 point defense they’ve seen this season with Tech allowing just 27% from deep (13th in the nation). Tech’s offense has been much better at home averaging 83 PPG and making 49% of their shots. Clemson is averaging just 58 PPG in their road games while making just 38% of their shots. The home team has won 7 of the last 9 outright in this ACC series and we like the home dog to win outright here. |
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12-20-22 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. San Jose State | Top | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Eastern Michigan +4 over San Jose State, Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have SJSU as a 1 point favorite on a neutral site so we feel the value is with EMU in this game. The Spartans have been trending down and overvalued for over a month now. They’ve lost 6 straight ATS by an average of more than 10 PPG. They were outgained by 4 of their last 6 opponents winning the stat sheet vs Nevada (2-10 record) and Hawaii (3-10 record) only. Their only wins since early September were vs Hawaii, Colorado St, and Nevada three teams who have a combined 8-29 record. EMU, on the other hand, is playing their best ball of the season right now winning 6 of their last 8 games with a spread record of 5-1-1 their last 7. The offense hit their stride down the stretch scoring 30+ points in three crucial games to end the season. This is also a team that beat Arizona State on the road earlier in the year and outgained the Sun Devils by 116 yards, prompting ASU officials to fire head coach Herm Edwards immediately after the game. EMU head coach Chris Creighton has been fantastic as an underdog going 3-1 ATS in bowl games and 35-10 ATS his last 45 getting points. The Eagles are the much more balanced offense rushing for 144 YPG and passing for 218 YPG. SJSU can’t run the ball averaging only 92 YPG (125th nationally) so they can be one dimensional on offense not great when your offensive line ranks 114th in sacks allowed per game. EMU is making this out to be a huge game for their program. They are looking to win their first bowl game since 1987. This game is being played in Boise which is in the same conference as San Jose State so we can’t imagine this is a rewarding bowl for that program. Take the points in this one. |
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12-19-22 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 12-24 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Rams +7 vs Green Bay Packers, 8:20 PM ET - These two teams had much higher aspirations this season and both have clearly fallen short. There isn’t a big difference between these two teams so we have to side with the Dog and the points here. The Rams are higher rated than the Packers when it comes to defensive DVOA rankings #14 whereas the Packers are 23rd. Green Bay holds the advantage offensively ranking 11th in DVOA while the Rams are 26th. The Rams have a negative differential of minus -6PPG which is one of the worst numbers in the NBA but the Packers aren’t much better at minus -3PPG which is 25th in the league. Green Bay has historically dominated in Lambeau but this season they have a negative differential of minus -0.8PPG. The Packers have already lost to the Titans and Jets at home and narrowly beat the Patriots. The Rams have two bad road losses on their resume to the 49ers and Chiefs and the Packers aren’t on that level. The other road games for the Rams are a 7-point loss at New Orleans, lost by 3 at Tampa and beat the Cardinals. Baker Mayfield had a week to learn more of the Rams system and should be better prepared for this road contest. Grab the points. |
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12-18-22 | Magic v. Celtics -9.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Orlando Magic, 3 PM ET - The Celtics were not in a good situation on Friday night when they hosted the Magic and lost outright as a 13-point favorite. They had just come off a big 6-game road trip and a tough OT win over the Lakers. Now we get a much better line with the Celtics in immediate revenge. Boston has the best overall point differential in the NBA and 3rd best average scoring margin when at home of +10.2PPG. They are 11-3 SU at home and 4-1 SU home off a loss. Overall the Celtics are 7-5-1 ATS when coming off a loss. Orlando is just 2-11 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -7.6PPG which is the 5th worst average in the NBA. Boston will settle in at home today and get a blowout win. |
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12-18-22 | Lions v. Jets +1 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 45 m | Show | |
#314 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Jets +1.5 over Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Detroit has won 5 of 6 (6-0 ATS) but they’ve had a very favorable schedule as of late. They haven’t played a road game since Nov 20th and their 2 road game wins were vs Giants (trending down big time) and Bears despite winning Detroit was outgained in both. Their last 5 wins have come vs defenses ranked 18th or lower (total defense) and the one top 10 defense they faced during that stretch, Buffalo, came away with a win @ Detroit. On Sunday they face a desperate Jets team that is coming home off 2 straight road losses @ Minnesota and @ Buffalo. Despite the losses, NY outgained the Vikings by 198 yards and outgained the Bills by 77 yards. For the season, NY is 8th in YPP differential while the Lions are 25th and the Jets have played tougher schedule. NYJ has a HUGE defensive advantage in this game as they rank 3rd in total defense and 2nd in YPP allowed while Minnesota ranks 31st and 32nd in those two categories. NY will be starting Zach Wilson at QB here and he has a lot to play for after getting unseated a few weeks ago by Mike White. Weather will be cold which we feel favors NY when facing off against Detroit who is a dome team. Our power ratings have the home team a slight favorite here so we’ll take the value with the Jets. |
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12-17-22 | Boise State -10.5 v. North Texas | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
#217 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -10.5 over North Texas, Saturday at 9:15 PM ET - This game is in Frisco, TX giving UNT a slight home field advantage but we still like Boise to roll. The North Texas program is in a bit of chaos after firing their head coach Littrell despite making the CUSA Championship game. That spot was just filled by an assistant coach from Washington State just a few days ago leaving the current coaching staff in limbo. The Mean Green were trending downward to close the season failing to cover their last 3 games and getting blown out in 2 of those games. They were 1-5 SU this year vs teams with winning records and in their 5 losses they were beaten by a combined score of 212 to 119 or an average final score of 42.5 to 23.8. They were outgained by over 600 yards in those 5 losses. Boise turned their season around once they switched QB’s and went with Green under center and hired longtime NFL coach Dirk Koetter to call plays. Once they settled on Green as the starter, the Broncos went 6-2 from that point on with their only losses coming vs BYU and Fresno in the MWC Championship game. They already had a great defense and with Green as the starter they averaged 32 PPG making them very tough to beat. The BSU defense has a HUGE advantage in this game ranking 6th nationally in total defense and 11th in scoring defense allowing 18 PPG compared to the UNT stop unit that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, pass defense, rush defense, and scoring defense allowing 31.5 PPG. Boise rolls in this one. |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | Top | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -7 vs Miami Dolphins, Saturday 8:15pm ET - At first look this may seem to be a lot of points to lay in a divisional showdown, but in reality, it’s not. Consider the Bills were minus -4-points in Miami earlier this season which should have them as double-digit favorite in this game. Buffalo lost the first encounter this season despite outplaying the Phins by a wide margin. Buffalo had 497 total yards in the game to Miami’s 212 yards. The Bills had twice as many first downs (31-15), nearly 3 times the rushing yards (115-41) and 382 passing yards to the Dolphins 171, yet still lost. The Bills blew numerous red zone chances and essentially handed Miami the win. Things will be different this time around as the Bills are at home, in a cold, windy and wet environment. This Miami team that has played four straight games in warm weather are also playing their 3rd road game in as many weeks. After putting up some gaudy offensive numbers against four weak defenses in a row, the Phins were brought back to Earth against the 49ers and Chargers the past two weeks. Today they get a Bills defense that is nearly as good as the 49ers in terms of efficiency. The Bills offense is 2nd in yards per game gained, 6th in passing, 8th in rushing and score the 4th most points in the NFL. Miami is 20th in YPG allowed, 23rd vs. the pass and give up 24PPG which ranks them 23rd. Buffalo has covered 7 of the last ten meetings at home and have the best home point differential in the NFL at +16.8PPG on their home field. In this payback setting we like the Bills big. |
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12-17-22 | Mavs v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - These two teams just met in Dallas on the 14th with the Cavs winning 105-90 as a +2.5-point Dog. We don’t see anything changing here and expect another double-digit win by Cleveland. In the game the other night the Cavs double-teamed Doncic in the first half and held him to a 9 of 23 shooting night. Overall, the Maverick shot just 39% for the game and were outrebounded by 10. The Cavs shot 53% for the game and dominated in the paint with 52 points compared to 26 for Dallas. Both teams are off games Friday night, but the Cavs are at home while the Mavs have to travel. The venue has a lot to do with this selection as the Mavs are 3-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -4.5PPG (9th worst). Cleveland is polar opposite with a 12-2 SU record at home and a +10.4PPG differential which is 3rd best in the NBA. Dallas owns the 27th worst road defensive efficiency and 26th worst OEFF. Dallas is 1-7 ATS their last eight games on the road versus a team with a winning home record. The Cavaliers are 13-2-1 ATS their last 16 at home. Don’t worry about the revenge factor here, bet the home team Cavs. |
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12-17-22 | Jazz v. Bucks -6.5 | 97-123 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs Utah Jazz, 8 PM ET - We can’t pass up an opportunity to play on an elite team like the Bucks off an EMBARRASSING loss in their last game out. Milwaukee got beat by 41-points in Memphis the other night in what was one of the worst defensive NBA games I’ve seen in a long time. These guys are professionals with damaged pride so we know we’ll get max effort out of the Bucks here. The Bucks are 13-3 SU at home with the 6th best differential of +9PPG. Milwaukee is 29-13 SU, 15-11-2 ATS when coming off a loss since the start of last season. The Jazz may come into this game a little ‘fat’ with a pair of big Western Conference wins over the Pelicans at home. Utah is 6-9 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -1.7PPG. They are coming off a stretch of games with 8 of their last nine being at home. Milwaukee’s defense will be the difference in this game as they rank 4th in PPG allowed, 2nd in FG% D and 9th in 3PT% defense. Back the Bucks here! |
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12-17-22 | Fresno State -4 v. Washington State | 29-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
#211 ASA PLAY ON 8* Fresno State -4 over Washington State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Washington State opened as a 2 point favorite in this game and it has swing to FSU by more than a FG. We agree with the move and feel there is still some value on the Bulldogs. WSU ended the regular season with a 7-5 overall record but did not beat a single team with a winning record and finished below .500 in the Pac 12. Their best win of the season was vs a down Wisconsin team who was 6-6 on the year and in that game the Cougars were outgained by 150 yards and had 12 fewer first downs. If we throw out their 24-17 win vs FCS Idaho, the record of the 6 FBS teams Wazzou beat was 24-48. Fresno is 9-4 this season but we feel they are better than their record. That’s because they played a number of games without their starting QB Haener who is an NFL caliber signal caller. He’s thrown for almost 9,000 career yards with 66 TD’s and just 18 picks. When Haener was able to play from start to finish, the Bulldogs were 9-1 with their only loss coming vs Oregon State 35-32 in a game where the Beavers scored a TD as time expired to get the tight win. FSU outgained the Beavs by almost 100 yards in that game, an Oregon State team that finished 6-3 in the Pac 12 and beat Washington St by 2 TD’s. Fresno comes in at the top of their game winning 8 straight games, covering 6 of those. The are facing a Wazzou team that will be without 3 of their top 4 WR’s, 3 starting LB’s, and both their offensive and defensive coordinators have moved on. The Bulldogs are jacked to get another shot at a Pac 12 team and we like them to cover this one. |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Seahawks +3 over San Francisco 49ers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Rookie QB Purdy has been very successful in his first 2 appearances in the NFL coming in relief 2 weeks ago to beat a faltering Miami team and then topping TB last week. Both of those games were at home. Now, if he plays, he’ll be making his first road start which is a whole different scenario. Not only that, he is not 100% with an oblique injury and there is a chance he won’t be able to go on a short week. If he can’t, it’s journeyman Josh Johnson who was just added to the roster last week. San Fran has had a very favorable schedule as of late with a grand total of ONE road game since November 1st before traveling to Seattle for this one. The Seahawks are in must win mode if they want to stay in the playoff hunt. They’ve dropped 3 of their last 4 and they’ve been competitive with 5 of their 6 losses coming by one possession. Seattle has been a house of horrors for the Niners with the Seahawks winning 12 of the last 14 both SU & ATS at home. We’re getting QB Geno Smith who is still 5th in the NFL in QBR vs either a rookie or a 4th stringer. The Niners are becoming a bit overvalued after winning 6 straight games now laying over a FG on the road with a rookie QB making his first road start, if he can even go. We’ll take the points. |
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12-15-22 | Flyers v. Devils -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* New Jersey Devils Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Philadelphia Flyers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET - Devils off 3 straight losses and will be angry here against a division rival. Remember New Jersey had won 21 of 27 games before this tough stretch. The Flyers have lost 16 of last 18 games! Philly's last 3 losses all by a single goal but this followed 9 of last 14 defeats by at least a 2-goal margin. Tough scheduling spot for Philadelphia as they are just back from a road trip out west too. This one shapes up to be a complete mismatch which is, of course, the reason the Devils are 3 to 1 favorites on the money line. The value comes into play here by laying the 1.5 goals on the puck line and only having to lay a very fair price in the pick'em range as a result. Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite New Jersey is the value play here.
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12-14-22 | Red Wings v. Wild -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 120 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Wild Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Detroit Red Wings, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - Plus money is in the +115 range on this one as of early morning Wednesday. The Wild are in a great spot for a home rout here. Detroit is in 2nd game of a B2B and had top goalie Husso in goal last night. The Red Wings lost key player Dylan Larkin to injury in last night's game versus Carolina also. That is a key blow to a team that was already struggling to score goals. Though it is uncertain how much time Larkin will miss it has been announced already that he will not play in tonight's game. This is a revenge game for the Wild as they lost to the Red Wings earlier this season and we expect Minnesota will take full advantage of the situation. Detroit has lost 3 straight games and has scored an average of only 1 goal per game in this 3-game losing streak. The Wild have won 8 of 11 games and have scored an average of 3.7 goals per game during this stretch. This one shapes up to be a complete mismatch which is, of course, the reason the Wild are 2 to 1 favorites on the money line. The value comes into play here by laying the 1.5 goals on the puck line and getting a plus money return as a result. Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Minnesota is the value play here. |
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12-13-22 | Marshall v. NC-Greensboro +4.5 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
#604 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro +4.5 over Marshall, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Marshall steps into this game with a 9-1 record but we feel they are vastly overvalued right now due to that mark. The fact is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation thus far with a SOS rank of 348th out of 363 teams. This will be their 3rd straight road game since last Thursday having played Duquesne and Robert Morris (both in Pittsburgh) on the road on Thursday & Saturday. UNCG doesn’t have the record that Marshall does (4-6 SU) but they’ve played the much tougher slate so far this season (Top 100 SOS rank). They’ve also been on the road for 3 weeks as this is the Spartans first home game since November 22nd. They are coming off their most complete performance of the season last Tuesday nearly knocking off Arkansas, the #9 ranked team in the nation, on the road. UNCG led at halftime and the Razorbacks first lead of the 2nd half came with under 9:00 remaining in the game and the final margin of 7 points was the largest of the game for Arkansas. The Razorbacks attempted 33 FT’s in the game to just 11 for Greensboro and the Spartans still nearly pulled the upset. Marshall has some gaudy offensive numbers but they haven’t played a defense with a pulse yet. The Herd hasn’t faced a defense ranked inside the top 140 in adjusted efficiency and 8 of their 10 opponents have defense ranked outside the top 200 in that metric. UNCG ranks 90th in adjusted defensive efficiency and just held a potent Arkansas offense to 65 points, 15 points below their season average. We’re getting value with this number. If this game was played to open the season, UNCG would absolutely be favored with Marshall coming off a year in which they went 12-21 last season. The Herd are in a tough spot here and favored on the road vs a desperate home team that is better than their record. Take the points. |
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12-12-22 | Cavs -5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - Even if Donovan Mitchell can’t go Monday we still like the Cavs minus the points. The Spurs are coming off a big road upset win in Miami and now return home where they haven’t had much success this season. San Antonio is 4-10 SU at home with the worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -9.6PPG. Prior to a recent home win over the Rockets, the Spurs had lost five straight at home, all by 5 or more points. The Cavs haven’t been great on the road this season but they are stepping way down in class against the Spurs here. Cleveland is 12th in offensive efficiency this season, the Spurs rank 29th. Defensively things get much worse for San Antonio as the Cavs hold the #1 rating in defensive efficiency while the Spurs are last. There is enough of a supporting cast in Cleveland with Allen, Mobley, LeVert and Garland to make up for the loss of Mitchell here. The Cavs 4-0 ATS streak in San Antonio continues tonight. |
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12-10-22 | Wolves v. Blazers -5.5 | 118-124 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* Portland Trailblazers -5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Blazers and fade the Wolves. Minnesota is coming off a big game in Utah last night (the return of Rudy Gobert) and will have a tough time getting back up for this game. Portland is off a tough 1-point loss to the Nuggets on Dec 8th. The Blazers got Damian Lillard back in that game and he promptly went off for 40-points. He’s in line for another big game here against a Wolves team that doesn’t defend guards well. The Wolves have a tighter rotation now that Karl Anthony Towns is out which makes this scheduling situation that much tougher. Going back to the start of last season, the T-Wolves are 6-9-1 ATS with a negative differential of -2.9PPG when playing without rest. The big advantage the Blazers have here is 3-point shooting. Portland has the 3rd best 3PT% in the NBA and the Wolves are the 29th worst 3PT% defense. Portland has dominated this series as the home team with a 22-7-2 ATS record the last 31 times the Wolves have come to town. |
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12-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. South Dakota State -8 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Dakota State -8 over Eastern Washington, Saturday at 5 PM ET - SDSU steps into this one with a 3-7 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country to date. Their strength of schedule ranks in the top 20 nationally and of their 10 games thus far, 9 have been on the road or neutral sites. They are coming off 4 straight losses, all away from home vs top notch competition (James Madison, Kent, Arkansas, and Montana). This now becomes a huge game for them and their opponent, Eastern Washington (ranked 231st), will be the 2nd lowest rated opponent SDSU has faced this season. This game is at home for the Jackrabbits and a big step down in competition after already facing 5 top 100 opponents. SDSU is much better than their record as they return 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s team that finished with a 30-5 record and made it to the NCAA tourney. EWU also has a losing record at 4-5, yet they’ve played a much easier schedule (220th ranked SOS) and their 4 wins have come against teams ranked 362nd, 339th, 259th, and 241st. Three of those wins were by 8 points or less despite the easy competition. All 5 of their losses have come by double digits and only one of those came vs a team in the top 85. The Eagles are 1-3 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Cal by 2 points on Wednesday of this week. Their other road games were losses by 11, 12, and 20 points. That win a few days ago vs Cal may seem like a big one but the Bears are now 0-10 this year with 3 of those losses coming vs teams ranked outside the top 200. After that road win in California, they are now in South Dakota just a few days later which is not an ideal situation. The Eagles are not great on either end of the court ranking outside the top 200 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They are stepping into a hornet’s nest here with a very solid team in must win mode at home where they’ve won 45 of their last 47 games. We’ll lay the points. |
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12-09-22 | Kings v. Cavs -4 | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* Cleveland Cavaliers -4 vs. Sacramento Kings, 7:40 PM ET - We like this young Kings team and don’t feel their 13-9 start is a fluke, but we have to bet against them here. The Kings average 119.3PPG compared to the Cavs 111.5PPG but their offensive efficiency rating is very close at 1.165PPP for the Kings and 1.141PPP for Cleveland. Defensively there is no comparison as the Cavaliers have the #1 rated defensive efficiency numbers in the league allowing just 1.079PPP versus the Kings who rank 21st giving up 1.132PPP. Cleveland has also been near unbeatable at home this season with a 11-1 SU record and the best average point differential of +12.4PPG. The Kings are a respectable 5-6 SU away from home but recently versus teams of the Cavs caliber (Bucks, Celtics even Hawks) they have lost by 9+ points in each of those road games. Cleveland has the 4th best field goal percentage in the NBA and the Kings rank 26th defensively in that department. Sacramento is also 27th in defending the 3-point line and the Cavs shoot 34.5% which ranks 10th. |
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12-08-22 | UMass Lowell v. Massachusetts -2 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
#306686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UMass -2 over UMass Lowell, Thursday at 7 PM ET - UMass Lowell has an impressive 9-1 record but they’ve played nobody. Actually we take the back, the one good team they’ve played this season, Rutgers, beat them by 8 points. Their strength of schedule ranks 356th nationally (out of 363) and 8 of their 10 games this season have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300 or non Division 1 opponents. UMass Lowell’s best win on the season came in a 73-62 win over Brown, the 233rd ranked team in the country. The River Hawks overall offensive numbers are solid but let’s take into account they’ve faced 10 teams this year and 7 of those teams are ranked outside the top 300 in adjusted defensive efficiency or they are non division 1 opponents. The best defense they faced this season, Rutgers, held them to 18 points below their season scoring average and allowed them to make only 42% of their shots and 22% of their 3-pointers. UMass has the 2nd best defense this team will face this season behind Rutgers. The Minutemen have faced the much more difficult schedule and have a similar record at 7-1. Because of UMass Lowell’s hot start, vs poor competition, we’re getting some value here with UMass. The Minutemen faced UMass Lowell last year here and were favored by -9.5 and won by 11. Now we’re getting them at -2 at home vs a program they’ve never lost to. UMass is 5-0 vs UMass Lowell winning by an average of 10 PPG. We’ll take the Minutemen at home on Thursday night. |
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12-07-22 | Pittsburgh +4 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
#703 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +4 over Vanderbilt, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid value here with a Pitt team that is better than most think. They have just won back to back road games vs teams that are both better than this Vandy squad. Since losing 3 in a row back in mid November vs 3 very good opponents (WVU, Michigan, and VCU), the Panthers have won 5 straight including wins @ Northwestern (by 29 points) and @ NC State (by 8 points). They’ve covered their last 4 games by a combined 65 points or an average of 16.2 points per game. Vandy has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and of their 4 wins on the season, 3 came by 8 points or less with 2 coming by 3 points. The Commodores are just 2-2 at home this year including a 12 point loss to Southern Miss who ranks 180th currently. Not a huge home court advantage for Vandy as their record at Memorial Coliseum since the start of the 2020 season is just 17-17. Vandy’s PPG differential on the season is +1 PPG and they’ve faced 4 top 100 teams this year with a record of 1-3 in those games. Their only top 100 win was by 2 points in OT vs Temple. In what we expect to be a tight game, the FT line will be key. Vanderbilt rarely gets to the line and when they do they only make 61% of their FT’s (332nd). Pitt scores nearly 20% of their points from the FT line (115th nationally) and they make 74% as a team. We have this number set at Vandy -1 per our power ratings so we’ll take Pitt +4 here. |
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12-07-22 | Pacers v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - The Pacers are exhausted at this point of the season as they are playing their 7th straight road game and are off a satisfying win over the World Champs Warriors. Minnesota is off a different result as they lost at home to the Thunder on Dec 3rd. They were off a huge game against the Grizzlies who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Now with 3 days rest and off that loss they’ll rebound with a big effort here. Indiana has a negative differential on the road of minus -4.7PPG and are 2-4 SU on this current trip. Minnesota has a losing home record this season which is a big reason why this line is as low as it is. The Wolves do have a winning record since the start of last season when coming off a loss. They also have a 19-19-2 ATS record at home as a favorite but their average Margin of Victory is +6.9PPG which gets us a cover here. |
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12-06-22 | Mavs v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Mavericks here as they are coming off a huge game on Monday night at home against the Suns. Denver meanwhile was off yesterday and is coming off a back-to-back losses on the road in New Orleans and Atlanta. These two teams met in late November in Dallas and split with each team winning a game. The Nuggets played without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic or 50.1-points per game, 13.8 rebounds per game and 13.8- assists per game and still split with the Mavs. Dallas is just 2-8 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Denver is 6-2 SU at home with the 5th best average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Dallas is 6-9-1 ATS their last sixteen games when playing without rest and the home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points with Denver here. |
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12-06-22 | Blackhawks v. Devils -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a blowout in the making with a New Jersey team that has won 20 of last 23 games after starting out 0-2 this season and now hosting a Blackhawks team that has won just 3 of last 18 games! That is why Devils a huge favorite of course but the value here is with the puck line at a very fair price. The fact is many of Chicago's recent losses (7 of last 9) have been blowout defeats! Devils off a tight win but 7 of 8 before that were by a multi-goal margin. |
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12-06-22 | Illinois +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
#607 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +4.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played on a neutral court – MSG in New York City. It’s the first time the Longhorns have left the state of Texas this season. They’ve played all home games + 1 sort of neutral site game in Edinburgh, TX vs a bad Northern Arizona team. Speaking of bad, the Texas strength of schedule is just that ranking outside the top 300. The only 2 top 100 teams they’ve faced are Gonzaga and Creighton, both in their home arena. We were on the Blue Jays +6.5 in that game and they hung tough getting us a cover losing by 5 despite making just 4 of their 27 three point attempts (15%). We really like this Illinois team and feel they will contend for a Big 10 title. They’ve played the much tougher schedule thus far including 1 true road game vs Maryland and a few neutral site games in Las Vegas vs Virginia & UCLA. The Illini have already faced 3 teams ranked inside the top 20 per our power ratings. They’ve beaten a very good UCLA team on the road and crushed Syracuse at home. Their 2 losses came at the hands of Virginia and @ Maryland 71-66 on Friday night. Those 2 teams are a combined 15-0 so far on the season. They match up well with Texas here who can’t shoot outside the arc (314th in 3 point percentage) and likes to score inside. Illinois has allowed opponents to shoot only 41% from inside the arc which is 11th best in the country. The Illini are the much bigger team as well and should control the boards vs a Texas team that has already been outrebounded in half of their games this season despite their weak schedule. Two very good defensive teams going head to head in MSG and we’re taking the points with Illinois in a game we expect to go to the wire. |
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12-05-22 | Saints +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints +3.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - NFL teams off shutout losses have long been a very strong play the following week. Since 2015 teams that get shutout one week have a spread record of 26-12-3 ATS the following week. As an underdog off a shutout loss, those teams are 71-55-2 ATS the last 128 games that fall into that situation. New Orleans lost @ San Francisco 13-0 last week and we like them to cover here. Despite the 13-0 final, the Saints played a very good San Fran team pretty even. They each averaged 4.9 YPP but the Niners rank 14 more offensive snaps due to 2 New Orleans turnovers. On top of that, the Saints missed a FG, fumbled at the SF 6-yard line and were shut out on downs at the SF 4-yard line so they definitely had their chances. New Orleans is much better than their 4-8 record with a YPP differential of +0.5 which ranks 8th the league. Tampa is 14th in that category at +0.09. The Bucs are off an loss in OT vs a below average Cleveland team and since starting the season 2-0, in their last 9 games Tampa is 3-6 SU and 1-7-1 ATS. Their 3 wins during that stretch have come by 3, 5, and 6 points vs teams that have a combined record of 14-19. They have failed to cover the spread by a combined 76 points or 8.4 PPG as they continue to be overvalued. In the first game this season, TB won 20-10 but they were outgained 4.7 YPP to 4.0 YPP and gifted 5 turnovers by the Saints including a 68 yard pick 6. Prior to that New Orleans had won 7 of the previous 8 match ups. Tampa is 0-4 ATS as a favorite of 3 or less this year and we like the Saints to get this cover on Monday night. |
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12-04-22 | Blackhawks v. Islanders -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
#36 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* New York Islanders Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Chicago Blackhawks, Sunday at 7:35 PM ET - Great set-up here. The Islanders are off B2B losses and that has been a rarity for them this season. In other words, the odds of a 3rd straight loss are very slim. That said, a blowout here is likely. The Islanders are a huge favorite on the money line for a reason. Where we get the line value here is with the puck line. Laying 1.5 goals is available at a nearly pick'em price and a home rout is likely. The Blackhawks are off a win but this was following a stretch in which they have lost 14 of 16 games including 8 straight before getting the win Saturday. So now they are in a B2B and of those 8 straight losses, 6 of them were by at least a 2 goal margin. This one will be too! Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite NY Islanders is the value play here. |
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12-04-22 | Jets +3 v. Vikings | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
#451 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Line value with Jets here in our opinion. This number basically says these 2 are even on a neutral field which we disagree with. Minnesota has the better record at 9-2 but they remain vastly overrated. They have a negative YPP differential and their point differential is just +5 on the season despite their 9 wins. There are 12 teams in the NFL that have better point differential than Minnesota and 29 teams that have a better YPP differential. That’s right, the Vikings rank 30th in YPP differential at -0.84 and the Jets rank 9th at +0.35 and NY has played the more difficult schedule. In their last 2 games, Minnesota was rolled at home by Dallas 40-3 and then “bounced back” to beat New England 33-26 but the Vikes were outgained by a whopping 2.0 YPP in that win. They allowed 26 points and 7.4 YPP to a Patriots offense that had 10 points on just 4.7 YPP on Thursday vs Buffalo. HUGE edge defensive here for the Jets as they allowed 5.1 YPP (5th) while Minnesota gives up 6.3 YPP (31st). New NY QB White is an upgrade over a struggling Wilson and while we don’t expect the huge numbers he had last week vs Chicago, he’ll do enough vs a Minnesota defense allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt (31st) to get the Jets a win here. We’ll take the points with the Jets on Sunday |
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12-03-22 | Blazers +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Blazers in this matchup as the Jazz are coming off a game last night, plus playing their 6th game in a nine day span. The Jazz are coming off a 20-point win over the Pacers last night but are just 3-3 SU their last six at home. The Blazers last played on Nov 30th, a loss to the Lakers who are clearly playing much better right now. Portland is 7-6 SU on the road this season with a +/- of minus -3.6PPG. Utah is 8-3 SU at home this season, but again they are in a very tough scheduling situation here. Dating back to the start of last season, the Jazz are just 9-9-1 ATS when playing without rest with a +/- of +2.9PPG. Utah is not a trustworthy favorite with a 35-50-2 ATS record since the start of the 2021 season, 3-6 ATS this season with a +/- of +2.8PPG. Portland as a dog is 11-5 ATS with a +/- of -3.4PPG. Grab whatever points are available and don’t be shocked if the Blazers win outright. |
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12-03-22 | Clemson -7.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
#321/322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -7.5 over UNC, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We like this spot for Clemson off a 1 point loss to a surging South Carolina team as a double digit favorite. It wasn’t a terrible loss by any means vs a surging Gamecocks team who had won 3 of their last 4 games including a 63-38 win over a top 5 Tennessee team. The Tigers blew a 9 point second half lead in that game and head coach Dabo Swinney made all of his coaches put in extra film time after that loss in preparation for the ACC Championship game. Clemson is very well coached and we feel they’ll play outstanding in this game after last week’s result. UNC is trending downward for sure. They have lost back to back games vs teams using back up QB’s. The Heels lost at home to a bad Georgia Tech team 21-17 on November 19th and the Jackets were without their starting QB Sims in that game and lost their back up during the game. UNC followed that loss up by getting beat again at home last Saturday by NC State who played their 3rd string QB Finley and he had only appeared in one other game this season. The offense, particularly, QB Maye looks like they are running out of gas. They struggled to put up yardage each of the last 2 weeks (350 and 365 total yards) and now they face one of the better defensive fronts in college football. Maye’s numbers have dropped off drastically the last 2 weeks as he has completed just 57% of his passes for 215 YPG through the air. Clemson with a huge edge defensively here (24th in total D to 117th for North Carolina) and they have a solid coaching advantage. Clemson is used to playing in big games like this and we like them to win by double digits. |
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12-03-22 | Kansas State +2 v. TCU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
#307 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State +2 over TCU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This line screams KSU in our opinion. We have an undefeated TCU team facing a 3 loss KSU team who they already beat this season and is playing for a spot in the College FB Playoff yet this line sits below 3 at just 2.5. Lots of pressure on the Horned Frogs here while a very good Kansas State team can play loose. In their first meeting this season @ TCU, the Wildcats led 28-10 near the end of the first half but blew the lead when they lost their starting QB Martinez AND their back up QB Howard in the game leaving a freshman at QB from mid 3rd quarter on. After Howard exited in the 3rd quarter, the Cats gained only 43 yards from that point on with their young, inexperienced 3rd string QB. We have no doubt that game would have played out differently had KSU had either of their top QB’s available down the stretch. They are both most likely available here. We know Howard will start and don’t be surprised if Martinez gets some snaps to keep the TCU defense guessing. Last week TCU rolled up a huge win 62-14 over Iowa State yet only outgained the Cyclones by 47 yards but ISU had a bunch of turnovers including 2 pick 6’s for the Frogs. It was ISU’s final game of the season, on the road, with nothing to play for. Prior to last week TCU had trailed or were tied in the 4th quarter in 5 of their previous 7 games but were able to win and nearly half of their wins (5) were one possession final scores. They were fortunate to be +7 turnovers in Big 12 play as well. We think TCU’s luck runs out here and KSU gets the upset. |
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12-02-22 | Bulls +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Bulls just played at Phoenix and were plus +5.5-points. Earlier in the same road trip they were plus +7.5-points at Milwaukee. Those two teams are in the top 3 or four teams in the NBA along with Boston. Tonight, Chicago is catching 7-points at the 11-11 Warriors. Granted, the Warriors have been very good at home this season with a 9-1 record and a +11PPG differential, but those numbers are padded with big wins over bad teams. Chicago has the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season with a +/- of -2.9PPG. Overall, the Bulls have the 12th best defensive efficiency rating in the league while the Warriors rank 21st and give up 1.137PPP. Off a humiliating loss in Phoenix we like the Bulls to rebound here and keep this game within the spread. |
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12-02-22 | Akron +12 v. Buffalo | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON Akron +12 over Buffalo, Friday at 1 PM ET - The Bulls were playing for a spot in the MAC Championship game last weekend and with a win over Kent they would have been in. They blew a 14 point lead with under 3:00 minutes to go in the game and then lost in OT. This is a really tough bounce back spot for them even if they need this one to get to 6 wins on the season. It was a meaningless road game for Kent as they were already out of bowl contention and their starting QB Schlee came into that game injured. He only took a few snaps and the Golden FlashThe Flashes played 3 separate QB’s in that game, one of which hadn’t played a snap this season. Even with that, Kent still was able to win the game and outgain Buffalo in the process. The Bulls are catching an Akron team that is playing their best football of the season. Last week the Zips went into Northern Illinois as a 9 point dog and won the game outright 44-12! It wasn’t a fluke as they outgained the Huskies by 250 yards. They have now outgained their last 4 opponents and they’ve shown zero quit as the season comes to an end. Last week the Zips were without their starting QB Irons but their back up Undercuffler, who threw for over 6,000 career yards as a starter at Albany prior to transferring, looked great last week passing for 312 yards and 3 TD’s. Despite their records (Akron 2-9 / Buffalo 5-6) the Zips have very similar overall stats (-1.0 YPP differential to Buffalo’s -1.2 YPP differential / Akron -38 YPG and Buffalo -15 YPG) and we’re getting double digits. Buffalo hasn’t won a game in over a month (October 23 was their last win) and Akron continues to fight with their win last week and 5 of their last 7 losses coming by single digits. Take the points on Friday afternoon. |
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12-01-22 | Creighton +7 v. Texas | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
#751 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +7 over Texas, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Texas is 5-0 SU this season but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They’ve played only 1 team ranked inside the top 180 and 3 of their 5 wins have come vs teams ranked 260th or lower. Their strength of schedule is currently 342nd after 5 games. Their lone top 100 win was here vs Gonzaga in the grand opening of their new arena and they were favored by 2 in that game. Now they are laying 4.5 to 5 points more vs a Creighton team that is every bit as good as Gonzaga this season. The Blue Jays are 6-1 in the season and they’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 3 straight top 30 opponents beating Texas Tech & Arkansas and losing by 2 points to Arizona. They return most of their key players from team that was 23-12 last year and nearly upended eventual National Champion Kansas in the 2nd round of the NCAA despite missing 2 starters (Nembhard and Kalkenbrenner who are both back). They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging at least 12 PPG and they rank in the top 12 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 2 point FG%. The Jays are very good in the backcourt which is key here as Texas thrives on creating turnovers (4th nationally) to help create offense yet Creighton doesn’t turn the ball over very much (17th nationally). Creighton should be able to keep Texas off the offensive boards (9th nationally in defensive rebounding) and off the FT line where their opponents have scored just 8% of their total points. This is absolutely a game the Jays can win and we’re getting significant points. They are very well coached and have had a full week off since losing by a bucket to an undefeated Arizona team. Take the points. |
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11-30-22 | Pacers v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 114-137 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 10:10 PM ET - The Kings opened the season 0-4 with three of those L’s coming at home and it looked like we were going to see another year of the same ole Kings. They’ve rebounded nicely from that slow start to win 10 of their last fifteen games. Included in that streak is a 7-1 SU home record with some impressive wins over the Heat, Cavs, Warriors and Nets. The lone loss in that stretch was at home last time out against the Suns 117-122. Sacramento has the 11th best average point differential at home this season of +4.9PPG. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency at home behind the Celtics. Indiana is off a big road win over the Lakers and will likely let down here. The Pacers have a negative differential on the road of minus -1.1PPG which is 20th in the NBA. They have a 5-4 SU road record but only one of those victories came against a team with a current winning record and that is the 11-10 Wizards. I’m buying the Kings here and will lay the points. |
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11-30-22 | Bucks v. Knicks +6 | 109-103 | Push | 0 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* NY Knicks +6 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - This line is inflated as the Knicks are coming off a game last night while the Bucks are rested. But the Knicks won big last night in Detroit and were able to spread their minutes throughout the bench. The value in this number is obvious as the Bucks were favored by -6-points at home earlier this season, which means this should be a small dog or even a pick’em. New York was just a +2-point home dog to Memphis the other night. The Bucks have been dominating at home with a 11-2 SU record but on the road they sport a 3-3 record. They are just 1-3 SU their last four away from home which includes a loss to the lowly Spurs. The Knicks are 11-4 ATS when playing without rest since the start of last season and they’ve won those games by an average of +2.8PPG and covered the number by +5.7PPG. Grab the value with New York tonight. |
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11-30-22 | Middle Tennessee v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
#668 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure -2.5 over Middle Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for MTSU. They have been in Montreal Canada since last Thursday. They played games in Montreal on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Now just 72 hours after finishing their last game in Canada, they have to play St Bonnies in Western NY. MTSU won all 3 games in Canada so we’re getting some value here with the number because of that. They beat Hofstra, Stephen F Austin, and Montana State with the last game going to the wire winning 72-71 vs a Bobcat team that now has a 3-5 record. The Blue Raiders have played 2 true road games this year losing both by 8 @ Winthrop and by 24 @ Missouri State, both rated lower than this St Bonaventure team. The Bonnies have some great momentum coming into this game after beating Notre Dame on a neutral court last Friday 63-51. So they’ve had 5 full days to get ready for this one which is a much better situation when compared to Middle Tennessee State. STB have a great home court advantage with a 3-0 record this season and 16-2 since the beginning of last season. Their 2 losses this season both came on the road by 4 in OT and by 4 in regulation. This team has surprised early and they are very close to being undefeated. Mark Schmidt is a terrific head coach who has been at St Bonnies since 2008 and has had winning seasons in 12 of the last 13 years. He’ll have his team well prepared and playing great defense as they rank 50th in eFG% defense and 26th in 3 point FG% defense. We expect a tired MTSU team that is simply ready to get home (they stayed in Montreal after their game on Sunday) and the STB defense will wear them down. Lay the small number. |
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11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers -3.5 | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Portland Trailblazers -3.5 vs. LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Blazers have a better “depleted” lineup than the Clipper injury riddled lineup. Portland it without Damian Lillard but the Clippers don’t have Paul George or Kawhi Leonard. Also, out for the Clippers is Luke Kennard and John Wall. Portland is off a tough 4-game road trip which ended with a very poor showing against the Nets. The Clippers are off a win over the Pacers, but it took a monster effort from their Center Zubac who scored 31-points and grabbed 29-rebounds. That was understandable considering the Pacers are one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to points allowed to Centers. L.A. has just 1 win on the road versus a team with a winning record and that was the 2nd game of the season against the Kings. Portland is 4-4 SU at home this season, but all 4 losses have come against teams that made the Playoffs a year ago. Portland off a double-digit loss is on a 4-0 ATS streak and we are betting they get a big win tonight. |
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11-29-22 | Georgia Tech v. Iowa -15.5 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
#632 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -15.5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Like this spot at home for Iowa after coming off a loss as a 6.5 point favorite vs TCU on Saturday. That game was on a neutral site in Florida. The Hawkeyes shot poorly vs a very good defensive team (TCU) hitting just 43% overall and 18% from beyond the arc, both well below their season averages. We expect those numbers to skyrocket at home tonight where they always shoot well. This season they are 3-0 at home, averaging 100 PPG and hitting 53% of their FG’s. We don’t expect triple digits here but the Hawks have been tough to beat at home winning 22 of their last 25 games and they’ve averaged 89 PPG in those 22 home wins. We just don’t think Georgia Tech can keep up here. They are not a good shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG% and they sit outside the top 285 in both 3 point and 2 point FG%. The Jackets are coming off a win vs a terrible North Alabama team (ranked 328th) that plays zero defense. Tech scored 80 in that game, however prior to that they had averaged just 62 PPG their previous 4 contests. They’ve played one top 60 team this year (Marquette rated 59th) and lost by 24 points on a neutral site. We have Iowa power rated in the top 25 so this will be the best team GT has played this season. The Hawks were just favored by 6.5 and 9 vs TCU & Clemson on a neutral site – both top 65 teams. That means at home they would’ve been favored by 10ish and 13ish vs 2 teams that are much better than Georgia Tech who most are projecting to finish last in the ACC. Despite laying 14, the value is on the home team here. Iowa should be able to put up big points at home as they usually do and unless the Yellow Jackets perform well above expectations, they just won’t score enough to cover this one. |
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11-28-22 | Seattle University +5.5 v. Washington | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
#815 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +5.5 over Washington, Monday at 10 PM ET - Huge game for a really solid Seattle team here getting to play their in-state big brother. These 2 met last season and Washington won by just 8 despite attempting 22 FT’s to Seattle’s 5. Despite that loss, the Redhawks went on to win the WAC title last season and finish with a 23-9 overall record. They return 7 of their top 9 players this season and they’ve started with 5 straight wins. That includes a 12 point win over a very good Portland team who took Michigan State and North Carolina to the wire (lost by 1 & 8) and beat Villanova. They catch the Huskies in a rough spot. Washington just upset St Mary’s in OT in their most recent game but were a bit fortunate as they trailed by 5 with just over 1 minute remaining. The Huskies also start Pac 12 play on Thursday of this week so they very well might be a bit flat here. If they are, they won’t win this game much less cover the 5 points. While Seattle brings back nearly everyone from last year’s team, Washington returns only 1 player that started in last year’s game vs Seattle and only 2 players that played 10 minutes or more. UW already has a 9 point home loss at the hands of Cal Baptist and Seattle will be the 2nd highest rated team they’ve faced this season behind St Mary’s. The Huskies last 4 wins have come by 8, 9, 5, and 4 points and 2 of those teams are currently ranked outside the top 200. Seattle is a very dangerous dog here as they are a very good shooting team (15th nationally in eFG%) and they can score from deep hitting almost 42% of their 3’s on the year (11th nationally). We look for this to be close throughout and we’ll grab the points with Seattle. |
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11-28-22 | Steelers +2.5 v. Colts | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show | |
#275 ASA PLAY ON 8* Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Indianapolis Colts, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Weird number here that sits at +2.5 instead of +3 which would tend to push bettors toward the host Colts in this game. There is a reason this is sitting at +2.5 and not moving this week. Pittsburgh is in a much better situational spot here after having a bye 2 weeks ago and they’ve played 2 games since so they should be well rested. Indy has yet to have a bye this season and is playing for the 12th straight week. The Steelers offense has improved as of late with Pickett getting comfortable at QB. Since their bye week they have scored 50 points and racked up 780 total yards in their 2 games vs New Orleans and Cincinnati who both rank in the top 12 in total defense. Meanwhile the Pitt defense has TJ Watt back in the line up which makes a huge difference on that side of the ball for them. They have 8 total sacks in the 2 games since he came back and they are facing an Indy offensive line that allowed more sacks than any team in the NFL and an immobile QB Matt Ryan. The Colts have played 2 games under interim coach Jeff Saturday beating a bad Las Vegas team by 5 and then losing to Philly last week. The Steelers are improving and they’ve played the toughest schedule in the NFL thus far this season. We like the coaching advantage here as well with Mike Tomlin vs Jeff Saturday. |
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11-27-22 | Florida v. West Virginia +1.5 | Top | 55-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
#788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* West Virginia +1.5 over Florida, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET - The better team is getting points on a neutral site here. We have WVU rated as 2 points better than Florida right now on a neutral court so we’ll take the value with the Mountaineers. Florida is still working on a new system on both sides of the ball with head coach Golden who came over from San Francisco in the off-season. The Gators are also working in 4 key transfers currently in their top 6 in the rotation. They’ve played 2 top 100 teams this season and lost to both, Xavier and Florida Atlantic. The Gators best win this season is vs a depleted Florida State team that currently has a record of 1-6. WVU is 5-1 on the year with 5 double digit wins and their only loss coming vs Purdue who is playing as well as any team in the country right now (just beat Gonzaga by 18). Head coach Bob Huggins has a deep team this season and he has consistently played 9 or 10 guys which will come in handy playing their 3rd game in 4 days (Florida has also played 3 games in 4 days). They have shot the ball very well this season (25th nationally in eFG%) and their defensive pressure has been tough for teams to handle with WVU ranking 9th nationally in creating turnovers. Florida has decent numbers offensively in regards to turnovers, however they haven’t faced a team ranked in the top 160 in defensive turnover rate. Both these teams played on Friday and we feel the coaching advantage in this situation is with Bob Huggins with short prep time over Golden who is only in his 4th season as a college head coach. Our metrics have WVU better offensively and defensively and they should get some extra possessions due to their defensive pressure. Take the points with West Virginia |
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11-27-22 | Mavs v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - We are not as high on the Mavericks and most prognosticators and like this spot to fade them. Dallas is off a game last night in Toronto, a 5-point loss as a -2.5 point favorite. The game before that they lost at Boston +5.5 points. In the game against the Celtics the Mavs trailed big for most of the game before making it respectable late. Last night Luka Doncic played 42 minutes so don’t be surprised if they manage his workload here. Dallas is 1-6 SU away from home with a negative differential of -4.7PPG. Milwaukee is 10-2 SU at home with a +/- of +9PPG. The Mavs 26th ranked scoring offense at 108.7PPG will have a tough time putting up points against a Bucks team that allows the 4th fewest points per game at 107.2PPG. |
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11-27-22 | Falcons +4 v. Commanders | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +4 vs. Washington Commanders, 1 PM ET - It’s interesting to note that despite Washington having a winning record and the Falcons a losing one, their +/- point differential is nearly the same. In fact, Atlanta ranks higher than Washington in overall DVOA rankings. Three of the Falcons 6 losses this season have come by 4 or less points, four of six have come by 6-points or less. Washington is coming off a 13-point win over Houston after a huge upset in Philadelphia the week before. On the season the Commanders have six wins but 4 of those have come by 6-points or less. In terms of yards per play, the Falcons average 5.6YPP offensively and give up 6.0YPP. Washington averages just 5.5YPP on offense and gives up 5.1YPP. The Falcons ball control offense that features a rushing attack averaging 159.3RYPG should be able to keep this game close throughout. Washington is 6-4-1 ATS their last eleven when coming off a win but their average Margin of Victory in those games is -2.4PPG. Atlanta is 9-6 ATS their last 15 when coming off a loss with a negative differential of -1.1PPG. This one shapes up to be a field goal game for either team so we’ll grab the points. |
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11-26-22 | Thunder v. Rockets +2 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Rockets +2 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - Scheduling is the main factor for this wager as the Thunder are in a tough spot here. OKC is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and two straight overtime games. This is also their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. Meanwhile Houston is also off a game last night but had 4 days off prior to last night. The Rockets beat Atlanta yesterday and have been competitive in recent games against Golden State, Indianapolis and have a win over Dallas. Houston has a huge edge on the glass as the 9th best defensive rebounding team in the NBA and 3rd best offensive rebounding. In comparison the Thunder rank 11th in O-rebounding but 30th in defensive rebounding. Houston won 3 of four meetings last year and will continue that trend tonight. |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
#126 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State +3 over Oregon, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This seems like a line most would grab Oregon based on the situation. The Ducks are playing for a spot in the Pac 12 Championship game yet only favored by a FG vs OSU. We actually think it’s a tough spot for Oregon as they’ve come off back to back emotional, down to the wire games the last 2 weeks. They were upended by Washington 37-34 when the Huskies scored 2 TDs in the final 3:10 to get the win. Last week Oregon played host to Utah and picked up a tight 20-17 win but the Utes had plenty of chances to get the W but had 3 turnovers, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs 3 times in Oregon territory. Three huge games in a row can be really tough on a team and we have a feeling the Ducks struggle here. Their QB Nix is really banged up right now and didn’t look even close to 100% last week. OSU is flying under the radar right now. Despite getting very little publicity, this team is 8-3 and they’ve won 5 of their last 6. The Beavers had one bad game this year vs Utah in which they outgained the Utes but turned the ball over 4 times including a pick 6. Other than that, their other 2 losses were by 3 points vs USC and by 3 points @ Washington. They run the ball very well (194 YPG) and their defense is sneaky good ranking 25th nationally. OSU has beaten the Ducks 2 of the last 3 times in Corvallis and they’d like nothing better than to ruin Oregon’s Pac 12 title hopes. We like OSU + the points and think they have a great shot at the upset. |
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11-26-22 | Georgia State v. Marshall -6.5 | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
#178 ASA PLAY ON 8* Marshall -6.5 over Georgia State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for Georgia State on the road facing a surging Marshall team. GSU played James Madison to the wire last week before losing 42-40. That game was a killer for the Panthers as they were looking to get to a bowl game for the 4th consecutive season and knew they need to win their last 2 games to accomplish that. Coming up short last week and now going on the road again is not an ideal situation. While last week’s game was close on the scoreboard, Georgia State was outgained by a hefty 168 yards but James Madison gifted the Panthers 4 turnovers including 2 fumbles that were returned for TD’s. So that game should not have been that close and GSU was lucky to even be in it. Now they face a Marshall team that has been lights out winning 4 of their last 5 games. Their only loss during that stretch was vs Coastal Carolina, who is already locked into the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, and Marshall actually outgained them by 136 yards despite the loss. The Thundering Herd have a great defense ranked 10th nationally and they match up perfectly with GSU’s offense. The Panthers have very little passing game and rely on running the ball. Marshall ranks 6th nationally allowing only YPG on the ground. Remember, Marshall beat Notre Dame on the road this season and held a potent Irish running game to 130 yards which is 60+ yards below their season average. This is Marshall’s final home game and with a win they can get to 8 wins on the season. Under a TD at home is line value for Marshall and we’ll lay it. |
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11-26-22 | Old Dominion v. South Alabama -15 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
#182 ASA PLAY ON 8* South Alabama -15 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We played against ODU last week @ App State and what looked like it was going to be an easy win, turned into a loss. App State (-16) was up 24-0 at half and up 27-0 with under 9 minutes remaining in the game. ODU scored 2 late TD’s to make the final 27-14 costing us a win. We’re coming right back and going against the Monarchs on Saturday. They are 16 point dogs again @ South Alabama which is big time value in our opinion. We have USA a full TD better than App State on a neutral field yet this number is the same as it was last week. The Jaguars are 9-2 on the season and still have a shot at the Sun Belt Championship Game. They need to win here and then have Troy lose their game (later in the day) and that would send the Jags to the Championship game. Not only that, a win here gets them to 10 wins for the first time ever as a Division 1 team (joined D1 in 2012). This is a huge home game for them. USA is really close to being undefeated this season with a 1 point loss @ UCLA (Bruins kicked a FG as time expired) and a 4 point loss vs Troy who they are tied for first place with in the Sun Belt West. ODU has now lost 5 straight games and over their last 4 they’ve been outgained by 680 total yards and scored only 34 total points (8.5 PPG). They are 3-8 with nothing to play for and on the road for their 2nd consecutive week. We expect the ODU offense to continue to struggle vs a South Alabama defense ranked 13th nationally. On the other side of the ball, USA averages 34 PPG at home this season and they are facing a Monarch defense ranked 117th. This has the makings of a blowout and we’ll lay the points. |
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11-25-22 | Nebraska v. Iowa -10.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
#132 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Iowa -10.5 over Nebraska, Friday at 4 PM ET - A win here sends Iowa to the Big 10 Championship game representing the West division. We can’t imagine Nebraska will be hyped to play this game. They are out of bowl consideration and put everything into last week’s home finale vs Wisconsin and lost 15-14 when the Badgers scored a TD with 30 seconds remaining. It’s not as if the Huskers dominated the game and blew it at the end. They were very fortunate to be in it as they gained only 171 total yards and were outgained by 147 yards. The Nebraska offense has been shut down over the last month scoring 9, 13, 3, and 14 points their last 4 games. The last 2 weeks they were held under 175 total yards vs both Wisconsin and Michigan. Now they face an Iowa defense that is every bit as good as those 2 stop units so we expect very little, if anything, out of the Nebraska offense. So we’re laying double digits with an Iowa offense that has struggled most of the year. Can they do enough to get this cover? We think so. Taking a close look at their schedule, Iowa’s offense has played one of the tougher slates of opposing defenses this season. 6 of the 11 defenses they’ve faced are ranked in the top 15 nationally. All but 2 of the defenses the Hawkeyes have faced rank inside the top 35. The 2 defenses they’ve played that were not good were Northwestern (72nd ranked defense) and Nevada (96th ranked defense) and they put up 33 and 27 points in those 2 contests. On Friday they face a Nebraska defense that ranks 108th which is the worst Iowa has played this season. Iowa’s offense has looked much better down the stretch averaging 24 PPG over their last 4 vs defenses much better than Nebraska’s. If they get to that here, we think the cover. Big disparity on defense and in “want to” here in favor of Iowa so we’ll lay it. |
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11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
#120 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Missouri +4 over Arkansas, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - We were on Arkansas last weekend in what was a huge game for them. They were home dogs and needed to beat Ole Miss to clinch bowl eligibility. They did just that and now they are on the road in a potential letdown spot. Despite the win last week, the Razors defense has some serious deficiencies. The offense played great but the defense allowed 700 yards to the Rebs. They currently rank 121st in total defense and on the road they are 2-2 on the season allowing 32 PPG. They haven’t played a very tough road slate despite their 2-2 record beating Auburn & BYU while losing @ Mississippi State and @ Texas A&M, whose season has been a disaster. In fact, A&M’s only conference win this year was at home vs Arkansas. Mizzou is in a similar situation to the Razors last week. They are 5-6 and have to win this game to get to a bowl. Their defense, unlike Arkansas, has been very good ranking 30th nationally so we’re getting a desperate home underdog with the much better defense. The Tigers are 4-2 at home this year with tight 4 point losses to Georgia & Kentucky. No other team has played to within 10 points of UGA this year. While Arkansas was putting all of their time and energy into beating LSU to reach 6 wins last week, Missouri had a “semi” bye beating New Mexico State bad and you can bet they were also preparing for this game in the week leading up to that. These 2 teams have played similar strength of schedules and their stats are pretty close with Mizzou +0.1 YPP and +25 YPG while Arkansas is -0.1 YPP and +16 YPG. The host has covered 9 of the last 10 in this series and this one is much more important for the Tigers. |
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11-24-22 | Patriots v. Vikings -2.5 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over New England Patriots, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Patriots 6-3 SU their last nine games but only 2 of those wins have come against a team with a winning record and that’s the Jets. The other 4 wins in that stretch come against teams with a combined 14-26 SU record. That ties into the fact the Pats have played the 21st easiest schedule according to our rankings. In contrast, the Vikings are 8-2 SU on the year, yet have faced the 9th toughest schedule to date. We can bang on the Vikings all we want but the fact of the matter is they’ve found ways to win. 3 of their last four wins have been quality W’s with victories over 7-3 Dolphins, 7-3 Bills and the 6-5 Redskins. New England is 4th in the league in YPG allowed and 6th in yards per play allowed at 4.9. But again, how much of that is a byproduct of playing the Steelers, Jets twice, Colts who rank 26th or worse in yards per play gained. Minnesota doesn’t have impressive overall statistics with an offense that averages 5.3 yards per play and 338YPG but they’ve also faced some of the leagues better defenses. Home/road numbers support the Vikings. Minnesota has a net +0.3 yards per play differential at home, the Pats are negative at minus -0.4. Minnesota had won 3 straight at home prior to an embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys last week so expect a rebound here. |
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11-24-22 | Bills v. Lions +9.5 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
#105 ASA PLAY ON 8* Detroit Lions +9.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 12:30 PM ET - This line is too high in our opinion. Buffalo has had plenty of distractions due to the big winter storm that dropped 6 feet of snow in their city. They were able to get out last weekend and play the Browns here in Detroit. Instead of staying in Detroit on a short week to get ready for this game, the Bills went back home and many will be dealing with distraction once again for a few days before heading back to Michigan. Not a great situation for Buffalo in our opinion and they would have been better off just staying and focusing fully on the game. On top of that, the Bills simply haven’t been playing all that well. They have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and their lone ATS win during that stretch was by a half point. They’ve been outgained in total yardage as well over their last 4 games combined vs Green Bay, NY Jets, Minnesota, and Cleveland. Over their last 8 games they’ve only won 1 by more than 10 points and that was vs Pittsburgh. The Lions, on the other hand, have played 4 solid games in a row winning 3 of those games. Their only loss during that stretch was at home vs Miami 31-27 as a 3.5 point dog. Now they are getting 10 from Buffalo? Detroit has 6 losses on the year and 4 of those have come by 4 points or less. The Bills are also a bit banged up with QB Allen and his elbow, along with 3 defensive starters and an offensive line starter (center) not practicing this week. Underdogs have been a big money maker this season in the NFL, especially dogs of 4 or more points with a 51-28 ATS record. Here we have a double digit home dog, that can score points (8th in the NFL in PPG), catching the road team in a tough spot. We like Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. |
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11-23-22 | Mavs v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 112-125 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - Dating back to the start of last season these are two of the three best teams in the NBA when coming off a loss with Dallas going 31-13 SU, Boston 29-14 SU. Boston though is 15-6 ATS their last 21 when coming off a loss and considering how poorly they played against the Bulls last time out they should be highly focused here. The Celtics are coming off Monday's 121-107 loss to the Chicago Bulls which snapped a nine-game winning streak. In those 9 wins the Celtics average Margin of Victory was +11.4PPG. The Bulls loss was frustrating considering the Celtics committed 15 turnovers and shot just 43.7% as a team. Dallas is coming off a loss to Denver and a 5-game home stretch which saw them go 2-3 SU. The Mavericks are just 1-4 SU away from home and have played a soft schedule to date. When the Mavs have faced an above .500 team they are just 2-7 ATS. Dallas has some misleading defensive numbers as they allow just 105.3PPG on the season (1st) but teams shoot 47.1% from the field versus them, 35.8% from deep (15th). The biggest reason the Mavs don’t allow a ton of points is the slow pace they play at (slowest in the NBA). Boston is the 2nd most efficient offense in the league at 1.190-points per possession and the 5th best overall shooting percentage (48.4%) and 3rd best 3PT%. Boston also owns a +/- at home of +8.7PPG. |
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11-22-22 | Liberty +4.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 52-66 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#667 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty +4.5 over Northwestern, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - The Flames are coming off an upset loss at home vs Southern Miss on Friday and we like them to bounce back in this neutral site game (Rivera Maya, Mexico) vs Northwestern. It was a game where Liberty came out flat and got way behind before coming back and having a chance late but losing by 4. It was a disappointing performance for a veteran team that may have been peeking ahead to their trip to Mexico. Liberty returns 7 of their top 8 players from last year’s team that won the Atlantic Sun and finished with a record of 22-11. That includes 2-time conference player of the year guard Darrius McGhee (25 PPG) who spurned Power 5 transfer offers to finish out his career with Liberty. Head coach Ritchie McCay has built a very good program @ Liberty after coming over from New Mexico back in 2008. He has led the Flames to 6 consecutive 20 win seasons. In their Hawaii tourney last year, Liberty with basically this same team, beat a very good Northern Iowa team who won the Missouri Valley, lost by 3 vs Stanford (blew a 13 point lead), and lost by 5 vs BYU who finished with a 24-11 record. This team is experience and battle tested. Northwestern steps into this game with a 4-0 record but we think they are overvalued at this point. We have them tabbed for 12th in the Big 10 this year after finishing 7-13 in league play last year. In their most recent game they held off IPFW at home winning by 8 after leading by just 1 points with just over 2:00 remaining in the game. Liberty is a solid shooting team that finished in the top 35 nationally from both inside and outside the arc last year while also making 77% of their FT’s. They’ve gotten off to a little slower start this year but still shooting well ranking 80th in eFG%. We think they’ll give NW big problems in this game and we actually have this game rated dead even. Value on Liberty Tuesday evening. |
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11-21-22 | 49ers -7.5 v. Cardinals | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
#475 ASA PLAY ON 8* San Francisco 49ers -7.5 over Arizona Cardinals, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral site in Mexico City. YPP differential is a big determiner of how good a team actually is. Then comparing it to their record is a team undervalued or overvalued? This SF team has a 5-4 SU record yet their YPP differential is the 2nd best, behind only the Bills, in the NFL at +1.2 so this team is much better than their record. Arizona, on the other hand, has a 4-6 record, but they are fortunate to have that mark as their YPP differential ranks 31st in the NFL ahead of only Pittsburgh. On top the YPP differential, San Fran ranks 26th in turnover margin (lots of luck involved) at -3 and they still have a winning record. Arizona, on the other hand, ranks 5th in TO margin at +5 yet they have a losing record. Those 2 stats are very telling and we feel SF is the MUCH better team in this game. The Cards 4 wins have all come against teams that currently have losing records and none of those teams has more than 3 wins. When they step up in competition and play teams currently above .500, Arizona has a record of 0-5 and their average point margin in those games is -10 per game. The Niner offense has had some time to incorporate new RB weapon McCaffrey into their scheme and they are facing a Cardinal defense that has given up at least 30 points in 3 of their last 4 games. They only team in the last month that did not hit 30 vs Arizona was the LA Rams who rank dead last in the NFL in total offense. Arizona’s injury report is as long as any in the NFL right now with QB Murray questionable along with top WR Hopkins, 2 starting offensive linemen, and a number of others. They are playing their 11th straight week while SF had bye 2 weeks ago so they should be the much fresher team. We’ll lay it with the 49ers. |
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11-21-22 | Georgia Tech v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah -4.5 over Georgia Tech, Monday at 6 PM ET - The Utes are coming off a home loss in a game they were favored so we look for a strong bounce back effort here in Fort Myers. That loss vs Sam Houston State isn’t looking as bad as many may think as SHSU is not a perfect 4-0 on the season and they also have a win @ Oklahoma. Utah returns all 5 starters from last season and they added a few transfers including F Ben Carlson from Wisconsin who will help up front. Georgia Tech is coming off a 12-20 season and while they are 3-0 this year, they haven’t played a team ranked higher than 224th. In that game vs 224th ranked Georgia State, who lost all 5 starters and is projected near the bottom of the Sun Belt, the Yellow Jackets squeaked out a 2 point win. Tech loses their top 2 players from last season, DeVoe and Usher who combined to average over 33 PPG, and they are left with very little experience. In their 3 games thus far the Jackets have shot the ball poorly with an eFG% 42.7% (324th nationally) and those numbers come vs lower level competition. Now they face a Utah defense, that has plenty of size inside and had held their opponents this season to an eFG% of 38.2% which is good for 8th best in the country. The Utes also have a nice size advantage and should control the glass vs a Tech team that has allowed their first 3 opponents to gather nearly 36% of their offensive boards which ranks the Jackets 314th in defensive rebounding. And those numbers came vs teams that are nowhere near the size of Utah. Most projections have Georgia Tech finishing dead last in the ACC after finishing 2nd to last a year ago. We like Utah here. |
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11-20-22 | Jets +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
#359 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We were on the Pats a few weeks ago when they traveled to NY to face the Jets. New England was -3 in that game and won 22-17 but we were a bit fortunate as they Jets outplayed them. NY has 100 more yards and averaged nearly 3.0 YPP more per snap than the Patriots. The Jets made some key mistakes with 3 TO’s, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs inside the Patriot 30 yard line. After being favored by a FG on the road, this line is very telling with New England now only 3.5 at home just a few weeks later. The Jets are better offensively (5.3 YPP to 5.2 YPP), better defensively (4.8 YPP allowed to 5.2 YPP allowed) and they’ve played the tougher schedule thus far per Football Outsiders (2nd highest SOS to 17th for New England). New York steps into this game with some serious momentum winning 5 of their last 6 games including a win over Buffalo in their most recent game prior to their bye last week. Their defense has been fantastic holding their last 6 opponents to an average of 15 PPG with 5 of those teams scoring under their season average. The Patriots offense ranks 26th in the NFL and in their meeting a few weeks ago NY held them to just 288 despite the loss. New England is also off a bye and Belichick was once great off a bye with Brady at QB. However, in his 2 years without Brady as his QB, the Pats lost both of their games off their bye week vs lower tier QB’s Drew Lock and Carson Wentz. NY is a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road this year and they get their revenge here after drastically outplaying New England a few weeks ago. Take +3.5. |
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11-19-22 | Jazz v. Blazers -4 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Portland Trailblazers -4 vs Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - This is a great situation to fade the Jazz and support the Blazers. Utah is off a hard fought 134-133 win over the Western Conference favorites the Phoenix Suns. The Jazz got a huge game from their Center Markkanen who scored 38 points. I doubt he can duplicate those numbers tonight considering the Suns are one of the worst defensive teams in the league against Centers. Utah is just 7-9-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. Portland had last night off but lost Thursday night at home to the Nets 107-109. A poor shooting night of 39% was the main reason for their loss to the Nets but we expect them to revert back to their season average of 46.6% here, especially against a Jazz defense that allows 47.3%. The surprise Blazers have gotten off to a 10-5 start and a big reason why has been their defense which is 6th best in the NBA in efficiency ratings. Portland is 5-0 SU off a loss this season, 4-1 ATS. |
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11-19-22 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5 | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
#400 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2.5 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This is an absolute flat spot for Ole Miss. The Rebels are now officially out of the SEC West race (LSU will play in the Championship Game) after losing 30-24 at home to Alabama last Saturday. They had a shot at the win pushing to the Alabama 14 yard line with under 1:00 minute remaining but were shut out on downs. Going on the road after that disappointment will be tough especially since they have a home game vs arch rival Mississippi State next on Thanksgiving Day. Not to mention, Ole Miss has only played one decent team on the road this season and that was @ LSU where they were rolled 45-20. The Rebels other road games this season came vs Georgia Tech, Vandy, and Texas A&M who all have losing records. On the other side, this is a HUGE home game for Arkansas. They need one more win for bowl eligibility and this is their final home game. Last week we were on the Razors and found out right before kickoff (along with everyone else) that starting QB Jefferson was being held out of the game. Despite that, Arkansas gave a great effort and nearly knocked off LSU losing 13-10 (Arkansas did get the cover). With Jefferson in the lineup, we’re fairly confident the Razorbacks would have won that game. He has been practicing all week and will be back in the line up on Saturday according to head coach Pittman. Not only is this the home finale, but it’s a game Arkansas has had circled after losing 52-51 @ Ole Miss last year failing on a 2 point conversion with no time left on the clock. The Razors also fall into a very strong system which is conference home underdogs coming off back to back home losses (so playing their 3rd straight home game) are 68-41 ATS over the last 40+ seasons. Arkansas is a very dangerous home dog here with a lot to play for and we’ll call for the upset |
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11-19-22 | Providence v. Miami-FL -2 | Top | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -2 over Providence, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Miami returns 5 of their top 8 players from a team that made it to the Elite 8 last season. On the other side, Providence must replace all 5 starters from last season and the Friars have played 2 teams ranked outside the top 250 and the one team they played ranked inside the top 200 (Rider at 194th) they struggled with winning by 1 point at home. Miami has also played a weak schedule but they’ve won all of their games by double digits. Despite their weak schedule, the Friars have allowed their opponents to shoot over 47% from 3 point land which will be an issue facing a Miami team that scored over 38% of their points from deep (56th nationally) and the Canes shoot it well from beyond the arc (36%). Providence is 3-0 because they’ve shot a whopping 53 more free throws than their first 3 opponents, however, Miami has been very good at not sending teams to the FT line (69th nationally) so we don’t expect a big advantage at the stripe for the Friars which they are used to. Miami is the better team here and laying under 3 on a neutral gives us value with the Canes. Lay the small number. |
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11-19-22 | Houston v. East Carolina -5.5 | Top | 42-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
#354 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -5.5 over Houston, Saturday at 2 PM ET - These teams are both 6-4 on the season but ECU is the much better team. This is the Pirates first home game in nearly a month and their home finale. ECU is coming off a game where they completely outplayed Cincinnati on the road, a Bearcats team that is currently tied for first place in the AAC. In that game the Pirates lost 27-25 but outgained Cincy by +144 total yards. The Pirates also beat UCF by 21 points so they outplayed the top 2 teams in the conference while Houston didn’t have to face Cincy or Central Florida. ECU has actually outgained every opponent but one this season and they are +80 YPG on the season. Houston struggled at home to beat a bad Temple team last Saturday. The Cougars were outgained in that game and scored a TD with under 1:00 remaining in the game to win by a TD vs a 3-7 Temple team. Houston’s YPG differential on the season is just +13 and they’ve been overvalued all season long with a 3-7 ATS record losing to the number by a combined 55 points or an average of 5.5 PPG. ECU, on the other hand, is 7-3 ATS and has covered 3 straight by a combined 35 points. ECU’s top 20 offense will be facing a Houston defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, passing defense, and PPG allowed. The Pirates average 35 PPG at home this season with a scoring margin of +12.5 PPG and Houston allows 39.5 PPG on the road. Last year these 2 met in Houston and while the Cougars pulled out a win on OT, they were outgained by over 100 yards by ECU. The Pirates should be highly motivated here in their final home game, we like them to win this by more than a TD. |
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11-19-22 | TCU v. Baylor +2.5 | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
#398 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baylor +2.5 over TCU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Situationally this one sets up very nicely. Baylor is off an embarrassing home loss vs KSU in which they lost 31-3 despite being favored. This week Baylor head coach Dave Aranda apologized to the fanbase for their performance and you can expect this team to be more than ready in their home finale on Saturday. On top of that, the Bears have been quietly waiting for this game as the Bears were in a similar spot to what TCU is in right now when these teams met last year. It was a November game, Baylor was 7-1 (finished the season 12-2) and sitting in the top 5 with a chance at the College Football Playoffs if they win out. They were favored on the road @ TCU by 7.5 points and lost 30-28 ending their hopes. Now the roles are reversed and Baylor can be the spoiler. TCU is off an impressive 17-10 win @ Texas where they were 7.5 point underdogs. It felt like a “if we can just win at Texas” type game we have a legit shot at the CFB Playoffs. Now on the road for the 2nd straight week, their 3rd road game in 4 weeks, and their 9th consecutive week of playing games, TCU is in a really tough spot. The pressure is all on the Horned Frogs where as we expect Baylor to play with a nothing to lose mentality. The Bears have won 10 of their last 12 home games and since the start of last season, they’ve been a home underdog twice and won both of those games outright. They also have an amazing bounce back record of 21-4-2 ATS their last 27 games following an ATS loss. So Baylor loses by 28 points as a home favorite to KSU last week, TCU upsets Texas on the road and controls their own destiny, yet the Frogs are favored by less than a FG in this game? We’re on Baylor to pull the upset. |
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11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans +3 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Pelicans +3 vs. Boston Celtics, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics may be short-handed tonight with Brogdon and Smart both sidelined, but even if they do play, we like the Pelicans at home. Boston is coming off a big win in Atlanta and now stands 6-2 SU away. The Celtics show 55% from the field and 46% from deep. Boston has at +/- of +5.7PPG on the road but their resume isn’t as impressive as you might think. Three of the Celtics road wins are over Detroit, New York and Orlando. New Orleans has an average Margin of Victory at home of +5.2PPG with impressive recent wins over the Bulls by 14 and Memphis by 11. Boston relies heavily on their 3-points shooting but they don’t have that advantage in this game as the Pelicans rank 5th in 3PT%, a few spots behind Boston. An equalizer here is the Pelicans 3-point defense which is 2nd in the NBA, holding opponents to 32.5%. New Orleans should get plenty of second chance opportunities in this game with the 7th best offensive & defensive rebounding team in the NBA going up against the Celtics who rank 22nd in defensive rebounding and 21st in O-boards. There is a chance Zion Williamson is back in the lineup for this game, but even if he isn’t we like the home team Pelicans. |
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11-17-22 | Spurs +7.5 v. Kings | Top | 112-130 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* SAN ANTONIO SPURS +7.5 at Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - This is more of a play against the Kings than necessarily a play on the Spurs. Sacramento has covered four straight games and is coming off a 153 outburst against the Nets. Those recent results have forced the oddsmakers hand which has this line inflated with the value on the Spurs. The Kings have not been a favorite of this size all season long with their largest spread as a chalk being -4.5. The Spurs were just +8.5-points at Portland who is 10-4 on the season and leading the Western Conference. San Antonio has some quality games against some of the elite teams in the NBA with a 7-point loss at Portland, a win at Milwaukee, a 2-point OT loss versus Memphis and a 6-point loss vs. Denver. The Spurs have covered 19 of their last 26 games overall and are on a 4-0 ATS run when coming off a loss. Sacramento is 14-14-1 ATS as a favorite since the start of the 2021 season with a +/- of +2.2PPG. The Spurs defense is bad this season but the Kings aren’t much better. We like the points here with San Antonio. |
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11-17-22 | Coyotes v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
#68 ASA PLAY ON 8* Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 goals -145 over Arizona Coyotes, Thursday at 10 PM ET - Vegas is off to a great start this season but off B2B losses. That sets this up perfect for a home blowout here. The Golden Knights are hosting a Coyotes team whose average margin of defeat in 9 losses is 3 goals! We only need to win by 2 to cash here and Arizona has been in blowout losses here in recent visits and, again, they are in the wrong place at the wrong time here. The Coyotes have been held to 2 or less goals in 8 of last 12 games. Conversely, the Knights are off B2B losses in which they scored just 2 goals in each game but this was preceded by a 9-game winning streak in which Vegas scored an average of 4 goals per game. We are looking for at least a 4-2 final but really 5-2 is even more likely. The Golden Knights are fired up and in need of a big win and the Coyotes just do not have the firepower to keep up here. Lay it. Vegas Puck Line is our play here. |
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11-17-22 | Davidson v. College of Charleston -2 | Top | 66-89 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* College of Charleston -2 over Davidson, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is part of the Charleston Classic Tournament which is being played on C of C’s home court so this is a home game for them. We were on the Cougars a few nights ago laying 2.5 points at home vs Richmond but lost by a half point when they won by 2 in OT. Now we’re laying less here (currently -1) vs a Davidson team we have power rated lower than Richmond. Ken Pom agrees with us as he has Davidson rated nearly 30 spots lower than Richmond. We like the value on this still underrated Charleston team. In their win vs Richmond earlier this week, the Cougars actually led by double digits for much of the way including a 21 point lead with 14 minutes remaining in the game. It was a game they should have won easily and they’ll learn from blowing that lead and keep their foot on the gas here. The Cougars are a deep team that goes 10 deep and plays at a hectic pace (2nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season). That will be an issue for depth shy teams and Davidson is one of those as they basically have a 7 man rotation. Another glaring weakness for Davidson is rebounding as they’ve been out boarded in all 3 of their games this season vs VMI, Wright State, AND tiny Guilford College. C of C is one of the better rebounding teams in the nation ranking 58th this season in offensive boards after ranking 10th last year in that category. That should lead to a number of extra opportunities for the Cougars. Their lone loss this season was at #1 North Carolina in a game Charleston led midway through the 2nd half and outrebounded UNC. In Davidson’s lone road game this year, they were down 21 points vs Wright State and had to battle back and picked up a fortunate win in OT. They followed that up with a 4 point win over VMI at home, a team picked to finish near the bottom of the Southern Conference. They could easily have 2 losses in their first 3 games under new head coach Matt McKillop who took over for his father after Bob McKillop retired at the end of last season. Tough match up for Davidson here and we’ll take College of Charleston to win at home. |
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11-16-22 | Rockets +9.5 v. Mavs | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets +9.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET - After winning with our play on the Clippers last night against the Mavs we will come right back with a bet against Dallas tonight. The Mavs are 6-7-1 AST their last 14 when playing without rest and their +/- in those games is just +1.6PPG which clearly isn’t enough for a cover tonight. Dallas is off to a 8-5 SU start to the season with a 7-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.1PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.1PPG. In their last five home games they have won by a combined 13-points. The Rockets have the 4th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -9.4PPG but they’ve also faced a brutal road schedule, with 8 of ten opponents having an above .500 record. Houston has covered 7 of the last ten meetings in Dallas and get another ATS ‘W’ here. |
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11-15-22 | Memphis v. St. Louis -2.5 | Top | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -2.5 over Memphis, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Billikens have been waiting for this one. Last year they finished with a 23-12 record and one of their worst losses of the season was @ Memphis 90-74. SLU actually attempted 22 more shots in that game but couldn’t hit the broadside making just 31% (Memphis hit 54%) and from beyond the arc only 23% (Memphis made 47%). While St Louis returns 5 players that started at least 16 games last year + they get Perkins back from injury (17 PPG in 2020/21 season), Memphis only has 3 players returning out of the 10 that played double digit minutes in last year’s game vs the Billikens. The Tigers have a number of transfers they are trying to incorporate which will take some time and they’ve only played 1 game so far this season. That was a 9-point win @ Vandy which doesn’t look all that impressive after the Commodores followed that loss up with another home 12-point setback vs Southern Miss who is projected by most to finish at the bottom of the Sun Belt this season. St Louis also added a veteran transfer from Missouri, Pickett, who averaged 11 PPG in the SEC last season and has scored 24 in his 2 games for SLU this year. They also have one of the more unheralded point guards in the nation in Yuri Collins who is drawing the attention of NBA scouts. St Louis was banged up last year with their top scorer Perkins on the shelf and a few other key players in and out of the line up and they still finished with a very good record. 8 of their 12 losses last year were by 7 points or less and now they are full strength and an undervalued team early in the season. With the short spread they may need to salt this one away at the FT line late and they can do just that hitting 80% from the stripe as a team this season after 77% a year ago. Huge home game for SLU and we’ll lay it. |
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11-15-22 | San Diego State v. Stanford +5.5 | Top | 74-62 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford +5.5 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We think this Stanford team is undervalued to start the season. They are 1-1 with a win over Pacific and a loss vs a Wisconsin team that is much better than many think. In their game vs Wisconsin, which was in Milwaukee, the Cardinal were 4 point dogs and now they are getting 5 or 5.5 at home vs San Diego State in this game. We have this one powered to SDSU as a 2 point favored so the value is on Stanford. In their 60-50 loss vs the Badgers, the shooting lines at AmFam Field in Milwaukee (home of the Brewers) were horrible and it showed in the shooting percentages. Stanford shot just 36% and they were 1 of 16 from beyond the arc for 6%! We expect them to shoot much better at home where they hit 60% of their shots in the opener vs Pacific. Stanford returns 7 of their top 9 scorers from last year and add one of the top 3 point shooters in the country, Michael Jones, who averaged 12 PPG for Davidson last year. SDSU is very solid and one of the favorites in the MWC but a bit overvalued in our opinion. They just faced BYU, who we have power rated almost the same as Stanford, at home and while the Aztecs won by 8, they trailed for most of the game taking their first lead in the 2nd half with just over 4:00 remaining. The Aztecs had a huge edge at the FT line making 26 freebies to just 10 for BYU. That was a big revenge game for San Diego State after losing to BYU 66-60 last season. Now SDSU makes their first road trip of the season and they might be looking ahead to their trip to Hawaii for the Maui Classic up next. Not a great spot vs a solid team off a loss. Take the points with Stanford at home tonight. |
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11-15-22 | Clippers +7.5 v. Mavs | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS +7.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We don’t have a problem backing the Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back for several reasons. Going back to the start of last season the Clippers are 8-9 SU when playing without rest with a +/- of -1.1PPG. In their win last night, they spread their minutes out with no starter playing more than 30 minutes. In fact, 10 players played 18+ minutes. LA has been better on the road than at home this season with a 5-2 SU record and an average differential of +2.5PPG which is 5th best in the NBA. The key for the Clippers has been their defense on the road as they allow just 1.068-points per possession which is 2nd best in the league. Dallas is off to a 7-5 SU start to the season with a 6-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.8PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.3PPG. In their last four home games they have won by a combined 11-points. Too many points, grab the Clippers. |
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11-14-22 | Suns +2 v. Heat | Top | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +2 @ Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - This offers a perfect opportunity to back an elite NBA team off a loss as the Suns just suffered a road defeat in Orlando. The Suns are 4-0 SU off a loss this season and an impressive 39-15 SU dating back to the start of the 2020 season in this situation. The record back to 2020 is the best in the NBA and they’ve won those games by an average of +7.3PPG. Not only that, the Suns have the best straight up road record since 2020 at 66-33 SU with a +/- of +3.1PPG. Typically, when you talk about the Miami Heat the first thing that comes to mind is defense, but that hasn’t been a strong point this season. In fact, Phoenix I 1st in points allowed per game, 6th in FG% defense and 2nd in overall defensive efficiency. The Heat are 11th in PPG given up per game, 24th in FG% defense and 24th in defending the 3-point line. The Suns also hold a big advantage offensively with the 4th best efficiency rating in the league compared to the Heat’s 17th ranking. Both teams have key injuries with the Suns potentially without Chris Paul the Heat may miss Tyler Herro for this contest. Miami is 0-6 ATS off a win, Phoenix is 8-3 ATS their last eleven off a loss. |
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11-14-22 | Hornets +1.5 v. Magic | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +1.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - Statistical support is somewhat difficult for this analysis as the Hornets numbers are misleading based on the injured players to date. Charlotte has been without starting PG Ball who came back in their most recent game and logged 28-minutes with 15-points and 6 assists. He paid immediate dividends on the offensive end of the floor as the Hornets shot 51% for the game which was well above their season average of 44.6% which is 26th in the league. Orlando is in an unfamiliar role here as a favorite which has happened just one other time this season, a game in which they lost by 7 to the Rockets. The Hornets are playing with same season revenge here as they lost on this court a few weeks back by 20-points. Charlotte was without two starters in Rozier and Ball, while the Magic had rookie sensation Banchero in the lineup. Banchero is questionable tonight and not 100% even if he does play. Orlando has played the weaker schedule and is also off a big upset win over the Suns. Charlotte gets a much-needed road win here. |
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11-14-22 | Richmond v. College of Charleston -2.5 | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
#862 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* College of Charleston -2.5 over Richmond, Monday at 7 PM ET - Richmond is a bit overvalued in our opinion due to their late season spurt last year. They finished the regular season 6th in the A10 but made a run in the conference tourney, won it, and went to the Big Dance where they beat Iowa in the first round. Problem is, they lose most of their key players from that team including 4 of their top 5 scorers. Thus far the Spiders have played 2 home games beating VMI, who is picked to finish last in the Southern Conference, and Northern Iowa who won the MVC last year but lost 4 of their top 5 players including conference player of the year AJ Green. Now they go on the road for the first time vs an undervalued C of C team. The Cougars are a deep team that goes 10 deep and plays at a hectic pace (2nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season). They return a number of key players from last year’s 17-15 team and are picked by many, including us, as one of the top teams in the Colonial this season. They just played #1 ranked North Carolina on the road on Friday giving the Heels all they could handle. C of C led by 7 at halftime and actually outrebounded UNC including an impressive 15 offensive boards. The Cougars ranked 10th nationally in offensive rebounding last season and should dominate the glass tonight. In their 16 point loss vs UNC, the Heels shot lights out at 60% and attempted 38 FT’s to just 9 for Charleston yet the Cougs were still leading midway through the 2nd half on the road. In their other game this season, Charleston beat Chattanooga by at, a team who won the SOCON last season (lost to Illinois by 1 point in the NCAA tourney) and is expected to finish near the top again this year. We’ll lay the small number with College of Charleston at home tonight. |
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11-12-22 | Kansas v. Texas Tech -3.5 | Top | 28-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
#158 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -3.5 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Tech. They sit with a 4-5 record and need to win 2 of their last 3 games for bowl eligibility. They are catching Kansas coming off a huge home win vs Oklahoma State which made the Jayhawks bowl eligible for the first time since 2008. The celebrated as if they’d won the National Championship and now KU must go on the road where they’ve struggled. We expect a letdown here now that Kansas has achieved their goal of making it to a bowl game. They are 1-2 SU in Big 12 road games losing by double digits to both Oklahoma and Baylor (outgained by a combined 400+ yards in those games) and their lone win was @ WVU in OT way back on September 10th and we have the Mountaineers the lowest rated team in the Big 12. Last week’s 37-16 win over a really banged up OSU team wasn’t quite as impressive as it might seem. The Cowboys played without their starting QB along with a number of other key starters on the shelf as well. A week earlier OSU lost @ KSU 48-0. They simply have too many injuries to compete at a high level right now. It looks like KU starting QB Daniels will remain out meaning back up Bean will get his 4th straight start. Prior to last week’s win, Bean started 2 games on the road (Baylor & Oklahoma) and the Jayhawks were down 20+ points in the 2nd half of each game and made a late comeback making each look more respectable than they actually were losing by 10 & 12 points. Tech is much better than their 4-5 record. They’ve played very tough with all but one of the Big 12’s top teams and have led in the 2nd half of many of those conference losses. The Red Raiders have played the 4th toughest schedule in the nation yet their YPG differential is an impressive +89 YPG (Kansas is -1 YPG on the season). Their offense is always potent, however the Tech defense is vastly improved this year allowing 373 YPG after giving up over 400 YPG last season. They hold a solid edge on that side of the ball with the KU defense giving up 435 YPG. The Raiders did lose QB Morton to an injury last week, however he was their 3rd string QB to start the season and was forced into action when starter Shough and back up Smith went down. They are both back so whoever starts we’re fine at QB. We like the value here as Texas Tech was favored by 19 AT Kansas last year and won in blowout fashion. We understand KU is improved but that is a huge swing in the pointspread in just 1 year. Tech is 21-2 SU in this series and we look for a win and cover on Saturday. |
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11-12-22 | LSU v. Arkansas +4 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
#212 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arkansas +4 over LSU, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - Line value and situational play on the Razorbacks here. LSU is off their huge home 32-31 OT win vs Bama last week. The Tigers were outgained by 100 yards in that one and got the win when they decided to go for 2-points after their TD in the 1st OT. They also had a bye entering their game vs Alabama so it was a really good spot for LSU. Just a huge win and it will be tough for this team to play at their maximum level in a road game at Noon ET this Saturday. Arkansas is off an embarrassing 21-19 home loss vs Liberty as a 14 point favorite. The Razors outgained Liberty by 115 yards but were shutout on downs twice in Flames territory and threw 2 key interceptions. It wasn’t a huge upset by any means as Liberty is very solid with an 8-1 record and had Arkansas in a flat spot coming off a win @ Auburn with this huge match up vs LSU on deck. LSU has been an underdog in 4 straight games and now they flip to a favorite of more than a FG @ Arkansas? In the Tigers most recent road game they were a 1 point dog vs Florida who we have rated 1.5 points worse than Arkansas. Last year the Razorbacks were -3 @ LSU and now they are getting more than a FG at home in a perfect situational spot. We like the Arkansas ground game to have a solid day on Saturday as they rank 10th nationally averaging 235 YPG rushing and the LSU defense is OK (not great) at stopping the run allowing 140 YPG. LSU is a solid 7-2 on the season but they’ve had a fortunate schedule playing only 2 road games thus far and only 1 since October 1st. Arkansas needs one more win for bowl eligibility with only 3 left so this is a huge home game for them. We’ll take the points. |
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11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 just met on October 30th in Atlanta with the Falcons going off as a 4.5 point favorite. The Birds won the game 37-34 in OT but were outgained on both a YPG (+72) and YPP (+0.4) basis in that game. Now they are on the road and laying 2.5 points just 2 weeks later. Based on the line on October 30th, the Panthers should be a slight favorite here but they are getting nearly a FG. We like the value with Carolina in this one. Panther QB Walker had 317 yards passing, a career high, vs a leaky Atlanta defense that allowed 6.1 YPP (31st in the NFL). He should have plenty of confidence in this rematch just 2 weeks later. In his lone home start this season, Walker and the Panthers rolled over the Bucs 21-3 and it wasn’t a fluke as they outgained Tampa by +2.0 yards per play in that win. They take on an Atlanta team that is 0-4 SU on the road this year, getting outgained in each game by a combined 592 yards or an average of -148 YPG. Despite their 4-4 record, the Falcons have been outgained by an average of -0.8 YPP which ranks them 29th in the NFL. Carolina ranks 18th in YPP margin at -0.11. Atlanta has been a dog in every game but one this season (first match up with Carolina) and now they are laying points on the road for just the 4th time since the start of the 2019 season. We’ll take the better defense (Panthers 17th in YPP defense, Atlanta 31st) as a home dog in prime time. |
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11-09-22 | Lipscomb v. South Dakota -5.5 | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
#306630 ASA PLAY ON 8* South Dakota -5.5 over Lipscomb, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - South Dakota took a loss on Tuesday at Wisconsin 85-59. We think that blowout setback is giving us some value here as our ratings have the Coyotes favored by 7 in this game. SD returns the top backcourt in the Summit League with Perrott-Hunt (15 PPG) and Archambault (14.5 PPG) from a team that went 19-12 last year. They also bring back guard Plitzuweit who sat out last season due to an injury after averaging 19 PPG as a freshman in 2020 and North Dakota transfer Bruns who put up 15 PPG last year and was the Summit’s freshman of the year. This backcourt is loaded. Because of their strong guard play, the Coyotes ranked 22nd nationally last year hitting over 37% of their triples. On Tuesday vs Wisconsin, they were just 2 of 15 from deep for just 13% vs the defensively stout Badgers. They hung fairly well on the boards despite being outsized (-5 rebounds) and only turned the ball over 10 times which is a testament to their solid guard play. Now back at home, South Dakota takes a big step down from a team that won the Big 10 last year (Wisconsin) to Lipscomb who finished 6-10 last season in the Atlantic Sun Conference. The Bisons had some key injury problems last season and will be improved but we feel this is a tough spot for their first game of the season. While SD will own a solid edge in the backcourt, Lipscomb will have an advantage inside with Asadullah patrolling the middle. However, Wisconsin also had a big edge inside and South Dakota did a very solid job of limiting their inside scoring by double teaming the post. The problem was, when they did that, the Badgers hit lights out from beyond the arc making 12 of 26 (46%). We don’t anticipate Lipscomb being that successful shooting from deep on the road in their first game of the season. Lay the rather small number with South Dakota at home. |
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11-09-22 | Jazz v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 125-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #544 Atlanta Hawks -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:40 PM ET - The Hawks have strung together three quality wins over the Knicks, Pelicans and most recently the Bucks. The win over Milwaukee was significant considering Trae Young did not play. He is expected to be in the lineup tonight versus the Jazz. Atlanta is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +5PPG differential. The Hawks were 27-11 SU a year ago at home with the exact same +/- of +5PPG. As a home favorite the Hawks are 22-17 ATS their last 39 and they win those games by an average of +6.1PPG. Utah has certainly been one of the biggest surprises early on as nobody predicted them to be 9-3 SU at this point after trading away Mitchell and Gobert. The Jazz are 4-3 SU on the road but only one of those four road wins came against a team with a winning record (6-5 Clippers). Utah isn’t great as a road dog with a 7-7-1 ATS record dating back to the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -6.9PPG. Lastly, we like to fade a team like the Jazz off a HUGE 139-point offensive showing and win over a hated rival like the Lakers. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency numbers but the situation and setting favors the Hawks. |
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11-09-22 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
#110 ASA PLAY ON 8* Central Michigan PK -110 over Buffalo, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Buffalo has the better record here at 5-4 compared to CMU’s 3-6 mark but we feel the Chippewas are the better team. We have this game power rated to CMU -3.5 so we’re getting some nice value with this number. The Chips are off a big win @ NIU last week 35-22 and they outgained the Huskies by 136 yards. Buffalo had won 5 in a row before getting torched by Ohio last week 45-24 and outgained by 222 yards. Despite their 5-1 record over the last 6 games, the Bulls were outgained in half of those games so they’ve been a bit fortunate. That’s been the theme of their season as Buffalo has a YPP differential of -1.2 on the year and they’ve been outgained by 18 YPG. CMU, despite playing a slightly more difficult schedule, has a dead even YPP differential and they are outgaining their opponents by +26 YPG. They’ve been very unlucky in the turnover department as the Chippewas have lost more fumbles than any other team in the nation! CMU has the much better defense here allowing 1.1 fewer YPP than the Bulls stop unit. Central also ranks #1 in the MAC (conference games) allowing just 331 YPG while Buffalo gives up 396 YPG in league play. The host should also control the line of scrimmage here as CMU sports a +0.3 YPC differential and Buffalo is -1.6 in that category. If the Chippewas can limit their turnovers here, we expect them to win this game at home. |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
#474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints +1.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - MNF road favorites are 0-2 ATS this season and just 2-9 ATS since the start of last season. We like this match up for the Saints and feel they are undervalued due to their 3-5 SU record. They are better than that record indicates. They’ve been quite unlucky in the turnover category this season ranking dead last in the NFL turnover margin at -9. Meanwhile, the Ravens have been very fortunate in that category ranking 2nd in the NFL in TO margin at +6. That fact is, teams that win the TO battle for a specific game win close to 80% of the time so the numbers above for the Saints & Ravens have factored in heavily to their current records. In large part because of that Baltimore has played above their estimated win total thus far of 4 (based on advanced stats of each game) and New Orleans has played below their estimated win total which is also 4. We expect the TO’s to even out so to speak for each team moving forward. The Saints, despite their 3-5 record, are actually 6th in the NFL in YPP margin at +0.64 and the 6 teams ahead of them all have winning records with the exception of SF which is 4-4. The combined record of the 5 teams ahead of the Saints in this key category is 30-10. Baltimore ranks 11th in YPP margin despite their superior record. New Orleans is +75 YPG this season while the Ravens have actually been outgained by about 5 YPG this season. We like the way New Orleans is playing right now outgaining 4 straight opponents including Cincinnati and Seattle who rank 10th and 11th in total offense. The defense is coming off a shutout holding the Raiders scoreless last weekend and they’ve held 3 straight opponents to below their season average in YPG. The offense is humming averaging 31 PPG over their last 4 and they’ve hit at least 399 total yards in 3 of those 4 games. Baltimore’s pass game took a huge hit here with leading receiver TE Andrews declared out so they will have to rely even more on the running game tonight (starting RB Edwards most likely out as well) vs a Saints defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in rush defense. We think the Saints are the better team and getting points at home. Take it. |
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11-07-22 | Thunder v. Pistons +2 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
#506 ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +2 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are 2-8 SU on the season and off to a disappointing start with their young roster. OKC on the other hand is 4-5 SU and playing above expectations. In this scenario though we have to back the home underdog with Detroit. The Pistons are coming off a horrible home loss to the Cavs on Friday night after winning their previous home game over the Warriors by 14. Sandwiched between those two home games were a pair of losses in Milwaukee. OKC is also off a pair of losses after winning 4 straight. The Thunder are 1-3 SU on the road this season and if we look at a larger sample size, we find they were 12-29 SU away from home last year. In those road contests in 202122 they had a net differential of minus -9.8PPG which was one of the worst average W/L margins in the NBA. This is more of a play against the Thunder who find themselves in an unfamiliar role as a road favorite which has happened once since 2020. The Pistons have a solid cover rate as a home dog at 57.9% since the start of last season. |
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11-06-22 | Titans v. Chiefs -12 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
#472 ASA top play on 10* KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -12 vs Tennessee Titans, 8:20 PM ET - The Titans 5-2 record is very misleading for several reasons: They have been outgained in every game but one and have a negative Net Yardage differential of -0.6Yards Per Play. Their 5 wins have come against teams with a combined 13-22 record. Their two losses to winning teams the Bills (by 34 and Giants by 1-point). They were +10 at Buffalo (similar to KC) and lost by 34. KC 4-3 ATS last seven off a bye with a +14PPG differential. Titans QB Tannehill is ? with an ankle injury. If he can’t go that means rookie QB Malik Willis will start, and he was 6 of 10 last week for 55 yards with an INT and is not a threat in the passing game. Tennessee got a huge rushing game from Derrick Henry last week but that was against the Texans defense that is last in the NFL in rushing defense. That won’t happen here against a Chiefs defense that is 3rd in the NFL in rushing D at 92YPG allowed. Kansas City and Mahomes should put up huge numbers with their 2nd ranked passing offense (296PYPG) versus the 24th ranked Titans pass D (254.7PYPG). |
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11-06-22 | Vikings v. Commanders +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
#458 ASA PLAY ON 8* Washington Commanders +3 over Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Vikings are vastly overvalued in our opinion. They come in with a 6-1 record but they’ve been outgained in total yardage on the season. They rank 27th in YPP differential despite facing the 21st most difficult schedule thus far. 5 of their 6 wins have come by a one score margin and they rank #2 in the NFL in turnover differential at +6. In other words, this team has been VERY fortunate to get to the record they have. Washington actually has a slight better YPP margin than the Vikings despite their 4-4 record. The Commanders are trending in the right direction having won 3 straight games and QB Heinicke gives them a better chance to be successful offensively than starter Wentz who is out. In his 2 starts this season, wins over GB & Indy, Heinicke has completed over 67% of his passes for 480 yards. Washington has outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents and their only loss over their last 4 games was 21-17 vs Tennessee in a game the Commanders outgained the Titans by almost 200 yards! Minnesota already has a huge lead in the NFC North with no other team above .500 and with a big game @ Buffalo on deck, this is a dangerous spot for the Purple & Gold. Tough to lay points on the road with a defense that ranks 28th in the NFL in both total D and YPP allowed. Take the points with Washington. |
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11-05-22 | Wake Forest -3.5 v. NC State | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -3.5 over NC State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wake is coming off a horrible performance @ Louisville last Saturday and we like them to bounce back in a big way here. Last week the Deacs were favored by -3 @ Louisville and lost the game 48-21. The yardage in the game was dead even however WF had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game, including 6 in the third quarter alone that led to the Cards scoring 35 points in that quarter. Four of Louisville’s five TD’s in the third quarter came on 2 pick 6’s, a 9 yard TD drive and a 33 yard TD drive. It was simply a game where everything went wrong for Wake. Let’s remember prior to that loss, WF was 6-1 on the season with their only loss coming in OT vs Clemson. It was their first road loss of the season after rolling @ Vandy by 20 points and winning @ Florida State by 10. NC State is ranked in the top 25 but they are seriously overvalued right now. That’s because they lost their veteran starting QB Leary three weeks ago and they have not been impressive in their 2 games since he went out. The Wolfpack lost 24-9 @ Syracuse and then last week had to rally from down 21-3 at home vs a bad Virginia Tech team to win 22-21. They made a switch at QB to true freshman Morris last week after getting behind and he rallied them back in his first extended action of the season. This week he’ll be making the first start of his career which is much different that coming in off the bench. Wake has film on the inexperienced starter and we expect him to struggle. The Demon Deacon offense has had all kinds of success vs NC State’s defense averaging 38 PPG over the last 5 meetings and the last 2 years with QB Hartman at the helm they’ve scored 45 and 42 points. NC State has a negative YPP differential on the season and they were outgained in 4 of their 6 games BEFORE QB Leary was injured. Wake is the better team, off a bad loss, with a huge edge at the QB position. Lay the small number. |
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11-05-22 | Kentucky v. Missouri +1 | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
#362 ASA Play on 8* Missouri Pick’em/+1 vs Kentucky, 12 PM ET - Kentucky is coming off their “Game of the Year” against Tennessee last week in which they lost 6-44 in blowout fashion. Cats QB Will Levis struggled on the day going 16 of 27 for just 98-yards with 3 INT’s. That should shift the Wildcats focus offensively to the running game which has struggled this season at 117.5-rushing yards per game (106th). Not to mention, the Tigers rush defense allows just 116-RYPG which ranks 27th in the nation. Missouri ranks 18th overall in YPG allowed at 311 and have held opponents to 21.5PPG which ranks them 33rd. This Mizzo team gave Georgia their best game of the season losing by just 4-points at home. UK is 1-2 SU on the road this season and have been out gained and lost 3 of their last four games overall. Last season Kentucky was the much better team, and they were a -5.5-point favorite at home and won by just 7-points. More handle and tickets have flowed in on Kentucky, yet the line moved in the opposite direction. |
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11-04-22 | Oregon State +4.5 v. Washington | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* OREGON STATE +4.5 @ Washington – Friday, 10:30 PM ET - Washington has won 9 of the last 10 meetings but the Beavers did win last year as a -2.5-point favorite at home. The weather conditions call for 81% rain and 17MPH winds which should favor the rushing attack of Oregon State vs. the passing offense of Washington (#1). In doing a comparative schedule assessment the Beavers have played the tougher schedule with games against Fresno State, USC and Utah. Washington’s toughest opponent faced this year is UCLA who they lost to by 8-points and were outgained by 89-yards. On paper Washington has the 21st best rushing defense in college football allowing 110.4RYPG but those numbers are misleading as they’ve faced 5 offenses that rank 82nd or worse in rushing O. The Beavers average 195.8-rushing yards per game which is 30th in college football and should have a big advantage here, especially in poor conditions. In fact the only rushing attack they have faced similar to Oregon State’s is UCLA who put up 184-rushing yards against them. Road team 6-1 ATS the last seven. Beavers 8-2 ATS last ten in Washington. |
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11-03-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6.5 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and a big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one. |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State -3 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Coastal steps into this home game with a 7-1 record yet they are underdogs vs the 5-3 App State Mountaineers. We agree and feel ASU is the much better team. We’ve felt Coastal has been overrated most of the season and they are not a 7-1 team. Their most recent home game the Chanticleers were whipped by 28 points vs Old Dominion and Coastal was favored by 12 in that game. That loss was no fluke as a rather average ODU offense put up a ridiculous 10.7 YPP to just 5.6 YPP for CC. The Monarchs destroyed Coastal in the trenches as well averaging over 10 YPC to just 2.1 YPC for the Chanticleers. Last week it looks like Coastal rebounded well beating Marshall but that wasn’t the case as they were again dominated gaining just 271 yards while allowing 407. Marshall turnovers and penalties were key in that win for CC. Now they face an App State team that is among the best rushing teams in the nation and we look for CC to get dominated at the line of scrimmage again. App State has played the tougher schedule facing 2 Power 5 opponents (UNC & Texas A&M) while Coastal hasn’t faced a Power 5 opponent and has a strength of schedule ranking of 121st. Despite that App State has a YPP differential of +1.5 and a YPG differential of +150 compared to CC who sits at +0.2 YPP and +22 YPG. Remember this ASU team took UNC to the wire (lost by 2) and beat Texas A&M on the road. We’ll take the much better team and lay only 3 points here. |
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11-02-22 | Hornets +6 v. Bulls | Top | 88-106 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +5.5 at Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - Scheduling plays an important part of the equation tonight as the Hornets are rested while Chicago is off a game in Brooklyn last night. Another key factor is the results of both teams previous games. The Hornets are off an embarrassing home loss to the Kings, Chicago is off an upset win over the Nets. Chicago is 0-2 SU/ATS this season when playing the second night of a B2B and have been lost by 5 and 32-points. Dating back to the start of last season, the Bulls are 8-10-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Hornets are 12-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Charlotte is 26-19 ATS their last 45 road games with an average margin of victory of minus -0.7PPG which gets us an easy cover here. One key aspect of this game that clearly favors the Hornets is their 7th best 3-point percentage shooting against a Bulls defense that ranks 29th in defending the 3-point line. Chicago’s starter saw extended minutes last night so fatigue becomes a factor late and the Hornets get a solid cover. |