Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-22-18 | Michigan State v. Illinois +12 | Top | 87-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois +12 over Michigan State, Monday at 9:00 PM ET on Fox Sports One Sparty coming off a blowout win over Indiana and Illinois coming off their worst outing of the year sets this up as a dog play. Because of those results the value is definitely on the Illini at home. For comparison’s sake the Illini were 10 point underdogs AT Michigan just a few weeks ago. Now they are getting more than that, at home vs a team Michigan beat on the road this year. MSU is obviously a very good team but they’ve had a more than favorable schedule over the last month. Over their last 9 games dating back to mid December, the Spartans have been on the road just ONCE. That was a 14 point loss @ Ohio State. They’ve actually only played 2 true road games the entire season, their loss @ OSU and a 10 point win @ Rutgers. Illinois is 10-10 on the season but winless in the Big Ten. That’s a very deceiving record as the Illini have been competitive in every game this year with the exception of their most recent loss @ Wisconsin on Friday night. This team simply didn’t show up for that game and after that embarrassing performance, we like this team to play very well at home on Monday night. Of Illinois’ 10 losses only ONE has come by more than 10 points and three were in OT. At home they are 9-2 on the season and both losses came in OT. The Spartans are still a very young team with 4 sophomores and 1 freshman in the starting line up. How do they handle a rare road game coming off a blowout win? They might be a bit fat and happy and the Illini are hungry taking on a name opponent at home. MSU wins this game, but it’s much tighter than this number. Take the points. |
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01-20-18 | Evansville v. Bradley -4.5 | Top | 53-66 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Bradley -4.5 over Evansville, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET We really love the way this game sets up for Bradley. They are coming off back to back road losses @ Loyola Chicago and @ Illinois State so the Braves really need a win at home on Saturday. Speaking of home, this team is 9-0 at home this year and they have won 12 of their last 13 at Carver Arena with their lone loss during that run coming by 2 points last season. Not only are they tough to beat at home, they cover here at a ridiculous rate. Bradley is a big time money making 21-4-2 ATS (84%) their last 27 home games! The Braves are fantastic defensively ranking 22nd nationally in eFG% defense and even better at home where they allow opponents to make only 34% of their shot attempts. Their average margin of victory at home this year is 14 points. They take on an Evansville team that is 1-5 on the road this season. The Aces have lost 6 of their last 8 games, they are a banged up team right now and threw up a red flag for us on Saturday when they lost at home to an Indiana State team that had lost 4 of their previous 5 road games. That’s all well and good but we have another motivator in our back pocket and that is the fact that these two teams played just 12 days ago @ Evansville. The Aces won the game easily 68-44 in what was one of Bradley’s worst defensive performances of the year. Evansville hit 50% of their shots, 53% of their 3 pointers and made every FT they took for the game (10 for 10). That won’t come close to happening again as the Braves are back at home where they play shut down defense. That’s a problem for a below average shooting Evansville team that averages just 62 PPG on the road. Evansville was just a 1 point favorite at home less than two weeks ago which tells us Bradley should be -7 or -8 in this game. Getting them in this spot with a low number is great value in our opinion. Bradley rolls and wins again at home. |
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01-20-18 | Xavier v. Seton Hall -1.5 | Top | 73-64 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall -1.5 over Xavier, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET Seton Hall is coming off a road loss @ Creighton on Wednesday night. We felt that was a great spot for the Blue Jays who were coming off a road loss and we cashed nicely with Creighton. Now we feel the Hall is in a great spot to bounce back off that loss. The Pirates are a perfect 11-0 at home beating teams by an average score of 82-66. They are one of the more veteran teams in the Big East with 4 upperclassmen in the starting line up that have played A LOT of basketball together. All 4 started on last year’s 21-12 NCAA tourney team, including 6’10 double/double machine Angel Delgado. This veteran team has a tendency to bounce back strong after a loss as they’ve had only three 2-game losing streaks since the start of last season (none this year). Xavier is coming off 2 straight home wins beating Creighton and St Johns. However all 3 of their losses on the season have come away from home and they are getting outscored by 2 points per game on the road. The Musketeers have lost each of their last 2 road games getting whipped by 24 points @ Villanova and losing by 9 @ Providence. The host has won 6 of the last 7 in this series with Seton Hall winning 71-64 at home last year as a 4 point favorite. Xavier has never won @ Seton Hall in Big East play and we don’t expect that to change on Saturday. The Hall picks up a win and cover at home. |
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01-20-18 | Butler -5 v. DePaul | Top | 79-67 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
#560 ASA PLAY ON #553 Butler (-5) over DePaul, 2PM ET - Butler has gone through a brutal schedule and have lost 4 of their last five games but now have an opportunity to right the ship against a struggling DePaul team. Butler is ranked 42 in KenPom rankings with the 29th rated offensive efficiency numbers and 83rd DEFF numbers. What makes those numbers more impressive is the fact they've played the 6th hardest schedule in college hoops. Just take a look at their losses this season: @ #38 Maryland, #35 Texas, #2 Purdue, @#16 Xavier, #22 Seton Hall, @#18 Creighton and @#57 Providence. Now they are coming off a loss, playing a DePaul team ranked outside of the top 100. The Blue Demons rank 160th in OEFF and 75th in DEFF with an EFG% offense that is 292 out of 351 schools. DePaul's home wins this year aren't impressive either as they've come against: Delaware State, Youngstown State, Central Connecticut, Alabama A&M and Miami OH. All of those schools rank 250th or worse and are nowhere near the caliber of this Butler team. Given the circumstances we expect a double-digit Bulldog win. |
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01-19-18 | Heat -2.5 v. Nets | Top | 95-101 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #803 Miami Heat -2.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:35PM ET - The Heat have quietly made a run in the East and currently sit atop of the Southeast Division ahead of the Wizards. Miami suffered a beat down at home by the Nets back on December 29th and then ripped off seven straight wins, lost at Chicago and then beat Milwaukee. The Heats stats from their last five games are impressive as they have the 6th best defensive efficiency numbers allowing just 1.024 points per possession. In that same five game span the Nets are allowing 1.109PPP which is 21st in the NBA and worse than their season averages. The Heat have been better offensively too, averaging 1.074 points per possession which is up from their season numbers of 1.062PPP. Brooklyn's OEFF ratings are the 4th worst in the NBA on the season and in their last five games. The Nets have an average differential of -2.5 PPG at home this season which is the 5th worst number in the league. Miami is 4-1 ATS as a small favorite in this price range this season while the Nets are 1-3 ATS as a dog in this same price. After the horrible home beating the Heat suffered to the Nets less than a month ago they'll be prepared here and set for payback. Miami has covered 10 of the last thirteen meetings. Lay it. |
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01-18-18 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -7.5 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -7.5 over St Marys, Thursday at 9 PM ET on ESPN These two are almost identical offensively with each ranking in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency and eFG%. The difference here is the Zags are MUCH better defensively ranking 17th nationally in defensive efficiency compared to 128th for the Gaels. We also can’t over state how big a home court advantage Gonzaga has. They are 10-0 at home this year with a ridiculous average winning margin of 30 points. They shoot 52% at home while allowing their opponents to shoot only 38%. They have won 25 of their last 26 games at home and amazingly only ONE of those 25 wins have come by less than 10 points. The Zags have played the much tougher schedule having already faced 6 teams ranked in the top 55 nationally and having beaten the likes of Ohio State, Texas, and Creighton. St Mary’s has not played a single team ranked higher than 50 on the season. Four of the five St Mary’s road games this year have come against teams ranked 221 or lower. Now they take a massive step up on competition facing a Gonzaga team coming in at #6. It’s also not a great scheduling spot for the Gaels as they are playing their 3rd consecutive road game on the span of a week. When these two met here last year the Zags were favored by 5 a walloped St Marys 79-56. That has been a common theme in this series as taking a look back to the late 1990’s, the Zags are 19-2 at home vs St Marys with 15 of those wins coming by 10 point or more! Gonzaga also has some added motivation here as St Marys was a unanimous pick to win the West Coast Conference by the league coaches. That fact has been circulating through the Gonzaga locker room this week and word is they are ready to prove a point tonight. Take Gonzaga to win by double digits AGAIN at home. |
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01-17-18 | Seton Hall v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Creighton -4.5 over Seton Hall, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One These two met in December and Seton Hall had to rally from 13 down in the 2nd half to pick up the 90-84 home win. The Jays dominated much of the game leading most of the way before the late push from the Hall. Despite controlling most of the game, Creighton didn’t shoot particularly well shooting just 20% from 3 point range (5 for 25) from a team that normally hits 38.4% which is one of the best marks in the nation. They were also outscored at the FT line by 11 points and yet even with those two situations, still probably should have won the game. Now they get their 2nd crack at the Pirates. Seton Hall is a very good 15-3 on the year but they have played only 4 true road games and split those for a 2-2 record. That includes a 20 point loss @ Marquette and a 6 point loss at Rutgers, one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Their lone Big East road win was a solid 90-87 win @ Butler, however it was a game the Hall trailed by 11 with under 10:00 remaining in the game. The Pirates never led by more than 4 points in the game so they were fairly fortunate to come out of that with a win. Now they face a Creighton team with extra motivation and a team that is simply fantastic at home. The Jays are perfect 11-0 at home on the season with every win coming by at least 7 points. Creighton is one of the top shooting teams in the nation but at home they take it to another level hitting 54% of their shots and average 93 PPG. They beat Seton Hall here last year by 14 and we also get Creighton off a loss on Saturday @ Xavier. We were on the Musketeers in that game however this spot absolutely calls for a play on Creighton at home. |
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01-17-18 | Southern Illinois v. Loyola-Chicago -7.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Loyola Chicago -7.5 over Southern Illinois, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET - MISSOURI VALLEY GAME OF THE MONTH Loyola is a bit undervalued right now in our opinion. They began the season winning 11 of their first 12 games with their only loss coming @ Boise State where nobody wins (Boise is 49-6 their last 55 home games). The Ramblers then went through a stretch in late December where they lost 4 of 5 games, however they were without their best player, Clayton Custer (former Iowa State transfer), at that time as he was out with an injury. Custer has since returned and Loyola has won all 3 games since he’s come back. With Custer in the lineup this year they are 12-1. Another key player, Ben Richardson, recently returned from injury and since he’s been back on the court, this team is 4-1. The point is, when the Ramblers are at full strength, they might just be the best team in the Missouri Valley Conference. This is a game they have been waiting for as well after getting swept last year vs Southern Illinois. The Ramblers are at home for the 2nd straight game after destroying a very solid Bradley team on Saturday 81-65. We have Bradley rated better than tonight’s opponent Southern Illinois. The Salukis are off a huge rivalry win over Illinois State on Saturday so it won’t be a shock if they are a bit flat on the road tonight. In that win, SIU was down by 14 points at home with just 7:00 remaining in the game and rallied for the 74-70 win. If not for that come from behind win, this team would be just 1-4 over their last 5 games with their only win coming by 2 points at home vs Evansville. With the win, they are still only 2-3 their last 5 and simply not playing all that well. Part of that is they are still trying to recover from two key season ending injuries in late December/early January to key rotation players Wiley & McGill. That has basically limited the Salukis to a 6 man rotation and we look for that to catch up to them tonight after their big come from behind win on Saturday. Loyola has won 10 of their last 11 at home with their only loss coming when both Custer & Richardson were out. Their average margin of victory at home is +14 points and they are hitting 55% of their shots here. That’s a bad match up for an SIU defense that has really been poor as of late allowing opponents to hit almost 50% over their last 5 games. We think Loyola controls this game from start to finish in an easy double digit win. |
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01-15-18 | Duke v. Miami-FL +3.5 | Top | 83-75 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami FL +3.5 over Duke, Monday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN The Canes have had the Dukies number as of late winning 5 of the last 8 games vs the Blue Devils and Miami is 10-3-2 their last 15 ATS in this series. We think Duke is primed to be upset again in this game. The Devils are young with 4 freshmen in the starting line up. Because of that, they’ve been inconsistent at best on the road. They’ve played 3 road games in ACC play and lost 2 of them @ BC and @ NC State, two middle to lower tier conference teams. Their lone ACC road win was @ Pitt who is by far the worst team in the conference. Now they face a very good Miami team and the Canes are coming off a loss @ Clemson who is 15-2 on the year. The 9 point final margin was very deceiving as this game was tight throughout as Miami trailed just 60-57 with under 2:00 minutes remaining. Clemson hit 57% of their shots and made 16 of 17 FT’s and despite that it was still a very tight game. The Canes played a rare poor defensive game and we expect them to bounce back and play much better on that end of the court here. Miami is a fantastic defensive team ranking 7th nationally in defensive efficiency and 2nd in eFG% defense. They are a deep and veteran team with 8 players averaging more than 10 minutes per game. They can absolutely match up athletically with the Blue Devils and this is one of the Canes games of the year so they will bring it in this game. Miami has won 33 of their last 35 home games and we can’t pass on them getting points in this spot. Duke goes down in this one. |
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01-15-18 | Butler v. Providence -1 | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Providence -1 over Butler, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One Butler is coming off a big home win over Marquette but the road hasn’t been so kind to the Bulldogs. They are just 1-3 in their 4 true road games this season and their one win was in OT @ Georgetown who is the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big East just ahead of DePaul. Their other 3 road tilts were all double digit losses. They have shot just 42% away from home and allowed their opponents to hit 48% of their shots and score 84 PPG. The Bulldogs have also lost 3 of their last 4 games overall. Providence is playing well right now. They’ve won 2 straight and 4 of their last 6 with one of those two setbacks coming in OT. Their most recent home game was an impressive 9 point win over a very good Xavier team. The Friars are a balanced and veteran team with four players averaging 10 PPG or more, three of those players being seniors. Since Butler joined the Big East in 2014, the Friars have dominated the series winning 7 of the 9 games and 3 of 4 at home. With this line sitting at -1, we simply need Providence to win at home which we think they well. This line should be higher and the Friars are the play in this game. |
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01-13-18 | San Diego State v. Boise State -3.5 | Top | 80-83 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Boise State -3.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET on ESPN2 Tough not to strongly consider Boise at home with a low number like this. Their home court advantage at the Taco Bell Arena is as good as any in the country. They are a perfect 9-0 at home this year winning games by an average of margin of +22 points. Going back further, this Boise team is 48-6 their last 54 home games! The Broncos shoot 51% from the field at home this year and average 83 PPG while allowing only 37% and 61 PPG. This is a very good Boise State team (14-3 record) that is one of our 3 favorites to win the Mountain West Conference along with Nevada and their opponent on Saturday, San Diego State. The Aztecs are still solid but down a bit this year in our opinion. They are just 2-2 on the road this season and we faded them a few weeks ago @ Wyoming where they lost 82-69 as a 3 point favorite. Since that loss the Aztecs have won 3 straight but those wins have come against 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the MWC (San Jose St, Utah St, and Colorado St). SDSU is a solid defensive team, but not a great shooting team ranking 203rd nationally in eFG% and 272nd in 3-point FG%. Speaking of defense, Boise is very good on that end of the court and actually better than SDSU. The Broncos are 15th nationally in defensive efficiency, 17th in defensive eFG% and 5th in defending the arc. On top of that, they are a great rebounding team rank #1 in the nation on the defensive glass. We spoke of their offense prowess at home so they have a big edge there in this game as well. We feel that Boise is the better team overall this year and will be very focused at home here as this is a game they have circled every year. Boise rolled to a 78-66 win here vs the Aztecs last year and we see a similar result on Saturday night. |
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01-13-18 | Creighton v. Xavier -3.5 | Top | 70-92 | Win | 100 | 3 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Xavier -3.5 over Creighton, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET on FOX We think this is a great spot for Xavier as they are coming off 2 straight losses, both on the road. Those losses @ Providence and @ Villanova dropped the Musketeers into a tie for 4th place in the Big East and their opponent today, Creighton, sits in 1st place with a 4-1 mark. This is a HUGE early season home game for XU as they don’t want to drop too far behind the Blue Jays. Home court advantage is key here as Xavier is 11-0 at home this season winning by an average margin of 19 PPG. They shoot 49% here at the Cintas Center and allow just 37%. They have won 38 of their last 43 home games and all but 3 of those 38 wins have come by more than 3 points which is today’s spread. Creighton is a very good team as well but like Xavier, their road performance simply isn’t nearly as strong as when they are at home. The Jays have played only 4 true road games this season and they are 2-2 in those games. Their overall defensive numbers are very good, however on the road they drop off drastically allowing their opponents to hit 47% of their shots. That will be a problem today vs a highly motivated XU team that shoots it well from deep, inside the arc, and at the FT line (78%). Speaking of the charity stripe that could be a huge factor here if XU has a lead late and goes to the line to preserve or extend their lead. The Musketeers simply don’t go on long losing streaks very often. In fact, they have gone on a 3 game or more losing streak only twice since the start of the 2015 season. We like them to break their 2 game losing streak today and get the cover at home. |
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01-11-18 | San Diego -1 v. Pacific | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego -1 over Pacific, Thursday at 10:00 PM ET We like the better team here coming off a loss. San Diego traveled to St Marys last Saturday to take on a very good team that basically never loses at home. SD was a 13.5 point dog but took St Marys to the wire losing by 7. Despite being a double digit favorite, the Gaels largest lead in the game was 9 points and it was close throughout the 2nd half. That loss dropped San Diego’s road record to 5-2 on the season. The Toreros have a better road record than Pacific has a home record (5-4). We also get Pacific coming off a huge home win topping BYU 67-66 on Saturday which gives us a potential letdown spot. Despite the win, the Tigers are just 2-6 their last 8 wins with their two victories coming by 1 point and the other in OT. They could easily be on an 0-8 run entering this game. Of their 7 wins (7-10 record), only one has come against a team ranked higher than 170 and that was BYU. San Diego, on the other hand, has already beaten 3 teams on the ROAD that rank 113 or higher including a win @ Colorado and @ New Mexico State. The Toreros have a GIANT edge on defense in this game as they rank 39th nationally in defensive efficiency, 3rd nationally in eFG% defense, and 1st in the nation at defending the 3 point line allowing just 23% from deep. Pacific ranks 246th or lower in all 3 of those categories. Offensively the Tigers are a terrible 3 point shooting team making only 30% of their attempts (323rd nationally) so they will get very little if anything from deep facing the top rated team at defending the arc. Pacific has very little home court advantage as they have won just 7 of their last 18 games here. They are averaging 79 PPG at home this year and they give up 79 PPG. On Thursday they face a San Diego team that has not only outscored their teams overall this year but they are also outscoring their opponents on the road. San Diego has been waiting for this one as well after losing both games to Pacific last year, each by just 3 points. USD is 21-8-1 ATS their last 30 road games and the pick up another win and cover on Thursday night. |
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01-11-18 | NC-Greensboro +8 v. East Tennessee State | Top | 58-68 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #583 NC Greensboro (+8) over East Tennessee State, 7PM ET - This is a great college rivalry that you've probably not noticed unless you live near each campus. Last year UNGC won both regular season meetings (83-79 on this court, 72-66 at home) but lost in the SoCon Championship game 74-70 to ETSU. That most recent loss is certainly a small part of the equation tonight in our wagering on NC Greensboro as they are playing with revenge. Just how tight has this series been recently? The last 7 meeting have all been decided by 7-points or less, with ETSU holding a slim 522-519 margin in points in the series since joining the league three seasons ago. Both teams are really good defensively as each holds foes to under 43% shooting with top 80 defensive efficiency ratings. East Tenn State has an advantage in terms of EFG% offense at 54.4% while UNCG sits at 51.1 EFG%. But Greensboro makes up for it by being a better rebounding team. UNCG has an average point differential of just -2PPG on the road this year and has a road win at NC State and played Virginia tough away from home too. This is a huge conference game for these ranked Mid-Major teams and the points are just too many to pass on. |
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01-10-18 | Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech -1 | Top | 53-60 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech -1 over Notre Dame, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPNU! This is a great spot to take Ga Tech at home. It will be their third straight home tilt and they are playing well right now. They had an easy time with Yale over the weekend and beat a very good Miami FL team by 10 points here a week ago. They faced this Notre Dame team on the road 12 days ago and lost 68-59 despite holding a lead into the 2nd half. The Jackets now get a chance at quick revenge less than 2 weeks later and the Irish team they face tonight won’t be the same as they one they played 12 days ago. That’s because Notre Dame’s top 2 players won’t be playing in this game. Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell are both injured and won’t make the trip. Colson is out for 8 weeks due to a foot injury and Farrell, who missed last weekend’s game @ Syracuse, hopes his ankle is ready for this Saturday’s HUGE home game vs UNC. Those two combined for 32 points and 22 rebounds in the win over GT less than 2 weeks ago. UND rallied on Saturday beating Syracuse by 2 points with Farrell sitting out his first game due to injury. Head coach Mike Brey stated after the game that it was one of the bigger wins of his career considering the injury circumstances. We think this game has letdown written all over it. First they face a team they just beat. Second they are off that huge win and play North Carolina at home next. And lastly, as happens often, the Irish stepped up in their first game in the absence of a key player and we think they come back down in their 2nd of back to back road games. Tech has played Notre Dame very tough as they are 9-0-1 ATS their last 10 vs ND. The host controlled this series winning 7 of the last 8 in this series. With this line right around pick-em, we like Tech to win outright. |
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01-07-18 | College of Charleston v. Towson -2 | Top | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Towson -2 over College of Charleston, Sunday at 2:00 PM ET These two met just 9 days ago and C of C came up with a 73-62 win. The Cougars shot 51% in the game and had a big +13 made FT edge. They also made 4 more three pointers and those factors were the difference in the 11 point final margin. Charleston was favored by 4 in that game and now with Towson laying just 2 points less than 10 days later, we feel we’re getting very nice value with the Tigers. This is a very big early season game for Towson as they sit at 1-2 in CAA play while Charleston is 2-1. A loss here not only drops them two behind C of C but would give the Cougars the tiebreaker very early in the season. That’s big as these are two of the favorites in the Colonial. Towson is very good at home with a perfect 5-0 mark. Going back to last season the Tigers have won 13 straight home games. They hit over 50% of their shots here while allowing their opponents to shoot only 35%. They are coming off an easy 18 point home win over UNC Wilmington on Friday and Towson was able to spread their minutes out with 9 players logging double digit minutes. Charleston, on the other hand, is playing their 2nd road game in the span of 40 hours after losing in OT @ Drexel Friday night. The Cougars had 4 starters log over 36 minutes in that loss. Both of these teams have 11 wins on the season, but C of C has played a MUCH easier schedule as the SOS is ranked 323rd nationally (Towson’s SOS is 193rd). 11 of Charleston’s 15 games have been played vs teams ranked lower than 200. We like the Tigers in this spot and with the line where it is, they basically have to simply win at home. |
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01-05-18 | Raptors v. Bucks +1 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: 808 Milwaukee Bucks (+1) over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET - Revenge angles only work in the NBA if the circumstances are right and it works tonight with the Bucks. Milwaukee just lost in Toronto on Monday 127-131 in OT in a very tight battle from start to finish. In this quick turnaround setting we like the Bucks to get a little payback here. Milwaukee has better overall offensive and defensive efficiency numbers their last five games compared to the Raptors and a better point differential. The Bucks are shooting over 50% their last five contests compared to the Raptors 44%. They are also allowing an average of 5-less points per game their last five too compared to Toronto. The Raps have a solid road record this season of 12-9 SU but they only have one quality win over the Rockets and nine of those W's came against teams with losing records. The Bucks are 13-6 SU at home this year, 4-1 SU their last five. The Bucks come to play tonight and get a big home win! |
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01-04-18 | VMI v. Wofford -15 | Top | 53-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #574 @Wofford (-15) over VMI, 7PM ET - VMI was projected to be the worst team in the SoCon before the season started and there's no reason to think they'll be anything different. VMI opened conference play against Furman (ranked 100th by KenPom) at home and lost by 30. Wofford is ranked lower than Furman but are better than their overall rankings in our opinion. VMI was +12 at home against Furman and are now +15 at Wofford which is not a big enough adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Keydets lost at VCU (again similar to Wofford) by 10 but were down 23 in the second half of that game. VMI is 5-7 SU this year but their five wins have come against teams ranked 329th or worse in D1 hoops. They start 4 sophomores and 1 freshman. Wofford comes into this game 0-1 in conference play following a loss at UNC Greensboro. That 'L' is understandable though as they had upset North Carolina on the road in their previous game. Tonight they'll be focused for a conference home team against an opponent they've beat by 18 points twice last season. The Terriers have played a very tough schedule (18th) and yet have a top 100 offensive efficiency rating and a top 80 effective field goal percentage. On the flip side, VMI has played one of the easiest schedules in the country and yet rank 272nd in overall defensive efficiency rating. This one sets up for a BLOWOUT! |
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01-02-18 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Green Bay -2.5 | Top | 67-63 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
ASA play on: #548 UW Green Bay (-2.5) over IUPUI, 8PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with his selection as we feel a road-weary IUPUI team will have a tough time rising to the challenge to face UW Green Bay tonight. This will be the Jaguars 10th road game out of the fourteen they've played. This is their 3rd straight road game in a 6-day span after losing at Northern Kentucky Dec 28th and Wright State Dec 30th. Those two teams are eerily similar to this same UW Green Bay team when it comes to rankings and statistics. On the other bench is a Phoenix team that is off two straight home wins over Detroit and Oakland who are also much like IUPUI. Neither team has played great this season as IUPUI has the 213th OEFF ratings compared to UWGB's 319th but the Phoenix have a much better defense at 210 versus the Jags 313th. The Jags 3-point FG defense is literally one of the WORST in college hoops at 342 and UW Green Bay has made 11 Triples in the past two games. IUPUI has been especially bad lately on the defensive end of the court as they've allowed their last five opponents to hit 56% of their FG attempts and only shot 37% themselves. Green Bay's defense has been much better of late holding foes to just 43.7% shooting compared to 45.3% they allow on the season. UWGB has a redshirt junior back in the lineup in Sandy Cohen who has averaged 17.5PPG, 9RPG in four games this season. Green Bay had a positive home differential of +4.1PPG last year and have turned the corner enough to get a win here by a larger margin. |
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01-02-18 | Spurs v. Knicks +5 | Top | 100-91 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 53 m | Show |
ASA play on: #504 New York Knicks (+5) over San Antonio Spurs, 7:35PM ET - The value in this line is obvious as the Knicks just played in San Antonio a few nights ago and were plus 10.5 points and now are home getting +5.5 points. That's not a normal swing in points and is clearly an over-adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Spurs home/road dichotomies are drastically different and they aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home. San Antonio's road point differential if -2.1PPG which is in the bottom half of the NBA. They have the second worst offensive efficiency ratings on the road but 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers. That disparity is a large reason why they are just 3-8 ATS on the road as a favorite this season. The Knicks have been good at home this year with a 15-6 SU record and a home point differential of +6.3PPG which is 10th best in the NBA. New York has a top 10 OEFF ratings and a top 14 DEFF ratings in the Garden. Normally I'd be remiss to play against the Spurs off a loss but the facts are they have a 2-3 ATS record on the road in that role. The Knicks are 8-3-1 ATS as a home pooch this season. Grab the points! |
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12-31-17 | Texas-Arlington -5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Texas Arlington -5 over Appalachian State, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET UTA is the highest rated team in the Sun Belt and the favorite to win the conference. They won it last year with a 14-4 record (27-9 overall) and they bring many of their key players back from that team including NBA prospect Kevin Hervey (22 PPG & 9 RPG). We get the Mavs in a great spot here coming off by far their worst performance of the season in a 90-65 loss @ Coastal Carolina, a game that UTA was the favorite. That dropped them to 0-1 in the Sun Belt and we look for them to atone for that embarrassment in this one. They are facing an App State team that is rated as the 8th best team in the Sun Belt, yet they stand at 1-0 in the league after topping Texas State 66-62 on Friday. The Mountaineers are just 6-8 on the season despite playing a fairly easy slate facing just 3 top 100 teams this year (0-3 in those games) and UTA will be their 3rd. App State is a bad defensive team that has allowed half of their opponents this year (7) to reach at least 80 points. They allow over 47% from the field overall and are terrible defending the 3 point line (304th nationally). That will be a problem against a very motivated Arlington team that has a number of players that shoot the ball very well. The Mav offense averages 78 PPG and they should have a field day vs this Mountaineer defense. These two met twice last year and UTA won both by margins of 15 & 16 points. We see a similar result here and we’ll take Texas Arlington to roll. |
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12-30-17 | Fairfield v. Manhattan -3 | Top | 58-61 | Push | 0 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Manhattan -3 over Fairfield, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET Manhattan comes in with just a 5-7 record, however they have played all but 3 games away from home. The Jaspers have played just one home game since November 18th and they are perfect 3-0 here at Draddy Gymnasium. They are just happy to finally have a home game where they are 52-26 in their 7 years under head coach Steve Masiello. They’ve also had a week off to get ready for this game after playing a solid game @ Seton Hall, one of the top teams in the Big East. Losing 74-62 last Saturday. Fairfield comes in with a 6-6 mark and they played on Thursday night and are now back on the court just 48 hours later. The Stags have played 3 straight home games and haven’t played a true road game since December 6th. They are 0-4 in true road games this season losing by an average of 13 points per game. Fairfield is not a great shooting team and they are facing a hungry Manhattan team that is very solid defensively ranking in the top 3 in the MAAC in 6 different defensive categories. This is a game the Jaspers have been waiting for after getting swept by Fairfield last season. Despite Fairfield winning here last year, the host has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 10 meetings. Manhattan covers this small number at home on Saturday night. |
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12-30-17 | Wofford v. NC-Greensboro -5.5 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro -5.5 over Wofford, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET Most will remember their most recent game when Wofford pulled the monumental upset @ North Carolina. That was 10 days ago and now the Terriers travel to a very good UNC Greensboro team. If you look at the entire body of work, Wofford had won just 1 of their 4 true road games heading into their game in Chapel Hill. All 3 of their road losses have come by double digits. Their game @ UNC they were the beneficiary of a terrible shooting night by the Heels who hit only 36% from the field and just 28% from beyond the arc. It’s not as if the Terriers have a shut down defensive team as the rank 317th in eFG% defense. It was just a night where the shots weren’t falling for UNC. We anticipate Greensboro taking advantage of that poor defense on Saturday. The Spartans are a very solid 3 point shooting team and 43% of their points come from deep which is 8th nationally. They are facing a Wofford 3 point defense that ranks 340th in the country allowing opponents to hit over 42% of their shots from deep. On the flip side, Wofford also relies heavily on the 3 point shot with 40% of their points coming from beyond the arc. However, UNCG’s defense as a whole is very good and they are fantastic at defending the arc allowing just 28% (11th nationally). This UNCG team won the Southern Conference last year with a 25-10 overall record and they’ve won 24 of their last 29 home games. Wofford caught lightning in a bottle @ UNC 10 days ago but this is a team that has had losing records each of the last 2 seasons. The home team has won 7 straight in this series and we think we get another one here. UNCG is undervalued here while Wofford is overvalued of their win over the Heels. Lay it. |
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12-28-17 | New Mexico State v. Cal-Irvine +5 | Top | 65-60 | Push | 0 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UC Irvine +5 over New Mexico State, Thursday at 10 PM ET UC Irvine is just 5-10 on the season but don’t be deceived by their record. This is a solid team that is projected by many to win the Big West Conference just as they did last year. The problem is, they’ve played a brutal schedule thus far (11th toughest strength of schedule in the nation). The Anteaters have played on 3 home games this season with their most recent coming back on December 2nd. They finished a 5 game road trip last Friday so they’ve had 6 full days to rest up and get ready to finally play a home game where they have won 27 of their last 32 games. Their opponent tonight is New Mexico State who is a very solid team. The Aggies will win a lot of games this year but this is a terrible spot for them. They just played 3 games in 4 days in Hawaii with their most recent coming on Christmas Day. NMSU took the red eye late Monday and their only “normal” practice day this week was yesterday here in Irvine. This is simply a bad spot for the Aggies and they are playing a motivated, rested team. UC Irvine is a proud program that has won 20+ games each of the last 5 seasons and we feel they have a great shot at an outright home win in this game. Even if not, we’re getting points on top of it. Take UC Irvine. |
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12-28-17 | Wolves v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #506 Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5) over Minnesota Timberwolves, 8PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Bucks here as the Wolves coming into this game off an OT win last night against Denver making this the second night of a back to back, not to mention the 3rd in four nights. Milwaukee comes into this game having lost two straight games, the most recent a home loss to the Bulls. Last night the Timberwolves starters all played 30+ minutes and three of the five (Butler, Wiggins and Gibson) all played 40 plus. That makes tonight's game so tough for them as their depth has been a concern all season long. Minnesota's bench averages just 13 minutes per game which is last in the NBA and their offensive/defensive efficiency stats are in the bottom four of the NBA in both categories. Milwaukee has lost two home games to the Bulls in the past two weeks but have won 6 other home games which included a 'W' over the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Bucks have covered 6 of the last seven meetings and will get a solid home win tonight over a tired Wolves team. Lay it. |
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12-27-17 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +3 | Top | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Wyoming +3 over San Diego State, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET This one sets up very nicely for the home dog. Wyoming is off a home game where they were favored by 9.5 points vs Northern Colorado and lost. That game was 8 days ago so the Cowboys and their coaches have had some time to stew over that loss, correct mistakes, and put together a great week of practice leading into this conference opener. It was Wyoming’s first home loss of the season (now 6-1 here) and they’ve had a very strong home court over the years rolling up a 26-4 record their last 30 home games. We look for San Diego State to come into this one fat and happy so to speak after their biggest win of the season, a 72-70 home win over Gonzaga. The Aztecs were in a similar situation in that game as they came off a home loss to Cal before bouncing back and pulling the upset over the Zags. San Diego State is 1-1 in true road games this year and they haven’t played a road game this entire month. The Aztecs are under the leadership of new head coach Brian Dutcher as long time coach Steve Fisher has retired. This team was a bit down last year with a 19-14 record which is not great for SDSU standards and they look similar this year with 3 losses on the season, including 2 vs teams ranked lower than 165th nationally. Wyoming is one of the more veteran teams in the MWC with 4 upperclassmen starters who were key members in last year’s 23-15 team. This team will play with a purpose tonight and they have another full week off before their next game. They are a solid defensive team (top 100 in defensive efficiency) and they shoot it well at home (46%). We look for them to pick up the outright win at home. |
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12-23-17 | Richmond v. Boston College -10 | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 49 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: #534 Boston College -10 over Richmond, 1PM ET - Huge disparity here between these two teams in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency ratings as BC checks in with the 82nd OEFF and 109 DEFF, while Richmond is 251st in OEFF and 224 DEFF. The Spiders don't shoot it well (250th in EFG%) and don't defend it will with the 335th EFG% defense. Richmond is one of the country's worst offensive rebounding teams while BC is one of the best. Boston College is 8-0 SU versus non-major conference opponents this year and is the only team in the nation to beat Duke this year. The Eagles have a point differential of +11PPG and are playing with revenge from a loss to the Spiders last year. Richmond's 4 best players are either freshman or sophomores and won't be up for the task here. BC is winning their home games by an average of 17PPG while Richmond is losing on the road by an average of 24PPG. This sets up to be a BLOWOUT! |
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12-22-17 | Hawks +10.5 v. Thunder | Top | 117-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Atlanta Hawks +11.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET - Yeah, I know it's hard to bet 'ugly' teams like the Hawks but the value here is clearly on their side. OKC is being asked by the oddsmakers to cover a hefty number here, especially considering they haven't been a double-digit chalk since mid-November. The Thunder also have two much bigger games on deck at Utah and then a Christmas Day showdown with the Rockets, so they may get caught looking past the lowly Hawks. OKC has the 7th best home point differential in the NBA at +7.3PPG but that's not enough to get a cover here. Atlanta is just 2-11 SU their last 13 road games but NONE of those losses have been by more than tonight's point spread. In fact, only 2 of the Hawks road losses have come by 12 or more points all season long. On the season the Hawks road differential is -5.8PPG, less than tonight's number. In their last five games these teams are nearly identical in terms of offensive efficiency ratings so Atlanta can score with the Thunder. Grab the points with Atlanta! |
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12-21-17 | Buffalo v. Texas A&M -11.5 | Top | 73-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
PLAY ON: TEXAS A&M over Buffalo - When it comes to scheduling there really couldn't be a better situation than this game tonight. Buffalo is coming off a HUGE game at Syracuse on Tuesday in which they competed the entire game and lost by 7. The Bulls clearly had to prepare for the Cuse 2-3 zone which took away time from their regular offense. Now they travel to Texas to face an Aggies team off a close, wake up home win over a good Northern Kentucky team on Tuesday. The Aggies were short several key players in that game and will for sure have backup PG TJ Starks back tonight while forwards Willaims and Jasey are probable. Reed Arena has proven to be one of the hardest places for opponents to get a win as Texas A&M has never lost a non-conference game inside Reed Arena while playing as a ranked team 46-0 SU. The Aggies are one of the nation's elite defensive teams ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency. A&M ranks 3rd nationally in field goal percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 36.0 percent from the field. On the offensive end, Texas A&M has also been solid as well, checking in at 41st in offensive efficiency. A&M leads the nation in defensive rebounds per game and is 3rd nationally in total rebounds per game, 9th in rebound margin. Buffalo is a very good mid-major team and one we'll look to play on in the future but this is just not a good spot for them. The Bulls were just +10.5 points at Syracuse who isn't nearly as good as this Aggies team and in our opinion is over-rated. After a close home game expect a very focused effort tonight in a blowout win! |
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12-21-17 | Cal Poly v. Texas-Arlington -13 | Top | 56-77 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UT Arlington -13 over Cal Poly, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET We were on UTA on Tuesday at Creighton and picked up a win. This team continues to fly under the radar but they are very good. The Mavericks should be extra motivated here coming off a loss (but cover) on Tuesday @ Creighton. This will be just their 2nd home game since December 2nd and the Mavs have 9 days off after this game so nothing to look ahead to beyond this contest. This is a solid shooting team with 4 players averaging more than 11 PPG led by NBA prospect Kevin Hervey who puts up 24 PPG and 9 RPG. They also have the nation’s leading assist man in point guard Erick Neal. They should tear apart a Cal Poly defense that ranks 277th nationally in defensive efficiency and 344th in the country defending the arc allowing opponents to shoot 44% from 3. Cal Poly comes in having lost 6 of their last 7 games. They have been whipped by 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games including on Saturday when they lost @ SMU by 20, a game they trailed by 29 points late in the 2nd half. The Mustangs are a poor shooting team (257th in eFG%) that has topped 66 points only once in their last 7 games. They will have trouble keeping up here vs a UTA team that has scored at least 80 points in half of their games this season. Cal Poly has won just one of their 6 games away from home this year (road/neutral) and going back a few years they’ve won just 11 of their last 50 games away from home. UT Arlington is the MUCH better team and will come in motivated off a loss. Blowout here. |
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12-20-17 | Magic v. Bulls -5 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #714 CHICAGO BULLS (-5) over Orlando Magic, 8PM ET - We could make a case that nobody in the NBA is playing better than the Bulls right now and there aren't many teams playing worse than the Magic. Chicago has ripped off 6 straight wins which included victories over the 26-7 Celtics, 76ers and East contenders Milwaukee Bucks. Chicago's average point differential in their last five games is +7.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. During that same 5-game stretch the Bulls have the 6th best defensive efficiency rating and the 11th best OEFF. Both of those numbers are DRASTICALLY better than their season averages which is what the point spread is based on. Conversely, the Orlando Magic are really struggling after a pretty good start. Orlando has lost 5 straight games and in those contests their average point differential was -8.6PPG which is 29th worst in the NBA. The Magic are just 1-10 SU their last eleven road games and their road point differential of -3.4PPG on the season is in the bottom half of the league. It looks like Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon will be out for the Magic tonight which is just too much to overcome against the red hot Bulls. Lay the points. |
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12-20-17 | North Texas +8.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* North Texas +8.5 over Georgetown, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET The Hoyas schedule thus far has been a joke ranking 350th most difficult out of 351 teams. They won their first 8 games but didn’t play a team ranked higher than 231st and 7 of their first 8 games were against teams ranked 298th or lower. They finally played a team with a pulse last Saturday and lost in OT at home to Syracuse. They are drastically over valued right now as they have had lines posted on only 6 of their games this year and covered just once. The lone game they covered the Hoyas were favored by 3 and won by 6. We expect Georgetown to have a tough time bouncing back here off their OT home loss to the Orange, especially facing a no name type opponent. However, North Texas should not be taken lightly. They are 7-5 on the season and the Mean Green have played a MUCH tougher schedule than Georgetown. In fact, if you throw out the Hoya’s game vs Syracuse, UNT has played 6 opponents ranked higher than Georgetown’s toughest foe. The Green are a grizzled road team having already played Nebraska, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, and UT Arlington on the road. Their most recent two road games they gave a very good Oklahoma team all they could handle losing by 10. A few days later they played a very solid UT Arlington team on the road and lost by 5. UNT has some momentum coming into this one having won 3 straight games including a win @ San Diego over the weekend. They are tough to guard with 4 starters averaging more than 10 PPG and this is one of UNT’s circled games for the season. G’Town has been a terrible investment at home covering just 10 of their last 35 games here and we like the Mean Green to give them a run tonight. This one is close and decided very late. Take the points. |
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12-19-17 | Dayton v. St. Mary's -8.5 | Top | 54-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* St Mary's -8.5 over Dayton, Tuesday at 10 PM ET Tough spot for Dayton here coming off an OT win at home over Georgia State on Saturday and now making their furthest trip of the year and playing just a few days later. The Flyers had 2 players log over 43 minutes in their game on Saturday and all 5 starters played more than 30 minutes. Dayton hasn’t played a road game since December 3rd and this is just their 2nd true roadie of the season (lost at Mississippi State). The Flyers are working this year under a new head coach Anthony Grant as their head man last year, Archie Miller, moved on to Indiana. The results have been mixed for this team as they are trying to learn a new system. They are 5-5 on the season with their best win coming over Ball State (ranked 118th) by a single point. They were very solid under Miller last year but lost 4 starters from that team and their 5th starter from a year ago now comes off the bench. St Mary’s is 9-2 on the year and their 2 losses have come by a combined 7 points and both were on a neutral court. Unlike Dayton, this St Mary’s team returned nearly every key player from last year’s 29-5 team that made it to the 2nd round of the NCAA before losing by 9 to Arizona. Four starters are back + a few key reserves and a big transfer Neal from New Mexico. They are a fantastic shooting team ranking 15th nationally in eFG% and they sit in the top 35 in 3-point FG%, 2-point FG%, and FT%. They are coming off a rare poor shooting game vs UC Irvine as they hit only 41% of their shots including 31% from 3. Even with that they won by 7. This is the Gaels 4th straight home game and their home record has been astoundingly good having won 40 of their last 43 games here at McKeon Pavilion. These two met last year in Dayton and St Mary’s won the game 57-55. The Gaels led by 14 in that game with just over 3:00 minutes remaining, didn’t score a basket in the final 6:00 minutes and still won, on the road, vs a Dayton team that is far better than this year’s version. We like St Mary’s to roll at home tonight. |
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12-19-17 | Wright State v. Missouri State -9 | Top | 50-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -9 over Wright State, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET We like this situation with the better team (Missouri State) is at home and coming off a loss as a favorite. The Bears most recent game was @ Oral Roberts and they played their worst game of the season losing outright as a 12 point favorite. Now they’ve had 9 days off and they should have some extra motivation coming off that loss. Mizzou State was on an 8 game winning streak heading into that game. On the flip side, we have a road opponent in Wright State who is coming off an upset win on Saturday beating Toledo as a 5-point dog. That game was won at the FT line where Wright State made 22 FT’s to just 7 for the Rockets. Toledo is a decent team but not on the same level as the Raiders opponent tonight. Missouri State is a very good defensive team (36th nationally in eFG% defense) and we look for a poor shooting Wright State team (277th in eFG% offense) to struggle scoring in this one. The Bears have held half of their opponents (6) to 60 points or less and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if they do the same here. This is just the third top 100 team that Wright State has faced this year (0-2 in the first two games) and the Raiders are 1-3 on the road this season. This will also be the highest ranked opponent Wright State (7-4 record) has faced this season with Mizzou State ranked 78th. These two have one common opponent and that is Western Kentucky (ranked 85th nationally). They both played the Hilltoppers on the road and Missouri State won by 5 while Wright lost by 18. The Bears are rested while Wright is playing their 2nd road game in 4 days and they have a trip to Georgia Tech on Friday. We like Missouri State to roll up a big win in this game. |
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12-18-17 | Texas-Arlington +14.5 v. Creighton | Top | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Arlington +14.5 over Creighton, Monday at 9:00 PM ET on Fox Sports One UTA is an under the radar team that is experienced and very good. They bring back most of their key players from last year’s team that went 27-9. The Mavs start 5 seniors including NBA prospect Kevin Hervey who is 6’8 and averaging 24 PPG and 9 rebounds per game. They also have a fantastic point guard in Erick Neal who leads the nation in assists. Neal sat out their most recent game due to a personal situation but is expected to start tonight. They have plenty of size to compete with high major teams as they go 7’0 (Va Tech transfer), 6’8 (Hervey), 6’7 in their starting lineup and their first big off the bench is 6’9. The Mavericks have an 8-3 record and have been very competitive on the road as you’d expect them to be with a successful, veteran team. They’ve played 3 true road games this year winning @ BYU, losing by 1-point @ Alabama, and losing by 4 @ Northern Iowa which was a 1-point game with under 1:00 minute remaining. They were 12-7 on the road last year including wins @ Texas and @ St Mary’s. Creighton is 8-2 on the year yet just 3-2 vs top 100 teams. The Blue Jays wins over top 100 teams have come by margins of 4, 10, and 11 points. The one very comparable opponent as far as ratings go was vs Nebraska who is rated 85th and Arlington is 79th. In their game vs Nebraska the Blue Jays won by 10 but it was much closer than that. The Huskers led by 8 in the 2nd half and it was a tight game down the stretch and the final margin of 10 was Creighton’s largest of the game. These two match up fairly evenly when it comes to efficiency stats and we feel there is no reason UTA should be getting this many points. Arlington has covered 8 in a row as a dog (3-0 ATS this year) dating back to last season and this one should be close throughout. |
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12-16-17 | Oregon v. Fresno State -2 | Top | 68-61 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -2 over Oregon, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - One CBS Sports Network This will be the first time this year that the Ducks have had to leave the state of Oregon. They have played 11 games thus far with 8 being on their home court and 3 coming down the road in Portland. Even with the favorable schedule the Ducks still have 3 losses on the season. One of those setbacks came on their home court to Boise State, a team from the same conference as Fresno (Mountain West), and a team we rate almost equal to the Bulldogs. Oregon is a far cry from the team that made the Final 4 last year and 6 of their top 7 players have moved on. Their only top 7 returner is guard Peyton Pritchard and he is paired with 4 new starters, 3 of whom are transfers. They are still try to mesh as a team. They are 0-3 vs top 100 teams and their highest rated win came in OT vs DePaul. And remember, they haven’t played a road game yet are still struggling. This is a huge home game for a very solid Fresno team. They’ve been looking forward to this one as they rarely get to host a “Power 5” type team, to use a football reference. Their last was back in 2015 when California came to town. The Bulldogs are 9-2 on the season and one of the more experienced teams in the country with 5 upperclassmen in their top 6 and they shoot the ball very well with a 57% eFG rate (22nd in the nation). They are tough to guard as they have 5 players averaging at least 10 PPG. They could be without one of those players (Hopkins) who has a back injury but they are deep & experienced enough to get by without him here. This Fresno team has won 27 of their last 29 home games and covered 19 of their last 26 at home. Oregon was one of the best teams in the nation and topped Fresno at home last year. The Bulldogs now return the favor vs an Oregon team that is still finding their way and working on their team chemistry with a slew of new faces. If they’ve been inconsistent at home, we can’t imagine they’ll be efficient in their first road game. Take Fresno. |
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12-13-17 | Western Kentucky +6 v. Wisconsin | Top | 80-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +6 over Wisconsin, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET on Fox Sports One We follow Wisconsin very closely as we are right down the road from the Kohl Center (3 miles away) and have had season tickets since that building opened. The Badgers were young and inexperienced coming into the season and we felt that some growing pains were in order early in the year. They’ve played a very tough schedule and hung close in a number of losses. We felt at full strength they would continue to improve and be a solid team by mid-season. However, they are no longer at full strength. Starting PG Trice is out with a broken foot and word is it’s possibly for the entire season. Back-up guard Kobe King injured his knee in practice last Friday and is out for the season. Wisconsin now has 2 scholarship guards on the entire roster. Freshman Brad Davison is solid but played 39 minutes in their loss here to Marquette on Saturday and he is injured as well with a bad shoulder. The Badgers will be forced to play 2 walk-ons in the back court for significant minutes moving forward. On top of that, it’s finals week at UW which is always a distraction. WKY is a very tough opponent for this Badger team. They are athletic and can shoot the 3 very well ranking 10th nationally at 42.4% from beyond the arc. The Badgers have struggled all year to guard the 3 point line ranking 199th in that category. Marquette lit them up for 14 three pointers on Saturday and many were wide open looks. The Hilltoppers are also a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting line-up. This is a huge game for them facing a name opponent with a chance to pull the road upset. It’s not as if this WKY team hasn’t already shown they can hang with the best teams in the nation as they’ve already beaten Purdue (one of the top two teams in the Big Ten) and SMU while playing #1 Villanova very tight losing by just 8. We get Wisconsin has had a very strong home court advantage over the years but this isn’t team isn’t at the same level as past editions. They’ve already been blown out, not just lost but blown out, at home twice this season. We give the Hilltoppers a decent shot to pull the upset and if they do lose it should be close. We’re on Western Kentucky here. |
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12-08-17 | Cavs v. Pacers +5 | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #504 Indiana Pacers (+5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET - When these two teams last met in Cleveland on Nov 1 the Cavs were a 10-point favorite and lost 107-124. The natural swing of the line should make the Cavs favored here but not by this many points. The inflation of the number of course has to do with the Cavs current 13 game winning streak. But did you know that in that stretch of game the Cavs are just 6-7 ATS AND they've only played two teams with winning record. In fact, the combined records of the eleven losing teams the Cavs have beaten in this run is 89-172 so it's really not as impressive as you might think. Cleveland continues to be over-valued by the oddsmakers which is evident in their 3-16-1 ATS record as a favorite this season. Indiana has been a pleasant surprise this year at 14-11 SU, 8-4 at home. They've beaten the Raptors, Pistons and Spurs at home already this season so they can certainly beat this Cavs team. Indiana has covered 12 of the last 16 meetings with Cavaliers and will get it done tonight. |
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12-06-17 | Wisconsin v. Temple -4 | Top | 55-59 | Push | 0 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Temple -4 over Wisconsin, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET The Badgers are one of the youngest teams in the nation ranking 335th in experience out of 351 teams. That means they will have ups and downs all season long. That scenario played out already this week as Wisconsin was destroyed at home vs Ohio State in what was their worst loss EVER at the Kohl Center (83-58) only to turn around and win on Monday night at Penn State 64-63 as a 5.5 point underdog. There were times on Monday night where Wisconsin had 4 freshman on the floor vs the Nittany Lions. UW was in a good spot to come back with some fight after getting embarrassed by OSU and Penn State was coming off their first ever win @ Iowa so a letdown was a strong possibility. The Badgers led by 17 in the 2nd half and held on for dear life was PSU missed a shot at the buzzer and Wisky held on 64-63. Now just 48 hours later this team has to take the court again vs a very good Temple team. The Owls are 4-2 on the season and all 4 wins have come against top 100 teams (South Carolina, Old Dominion, Auburn, and Clemson). Even more impressive, none of those games were at home (all on neutral courts). Speaking of home, we have a feeling Temple is fired up for this one not only because they face perennial power Wisconsin, but this is also their FIRST home game of the season. Another motivator here for Temple is the fact they are coming off a 4-point loss @ George Washington, a game that was just a few days after the Owls knocked off last year’s Final 4 entrant South Carolina 76-60. It looked like a letdown game for Temple and it was but now coming off that they should be extra hungry to win their first home game of the season. Unlike Wisconsin, this is a veteran Owl team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up and they are balanced with 3 players averaging 14 PPG or more. While the Owls are 4-0 vs top 100 teams, Wisconsin is just 1-5 vs teams ranked inside the top 100 with their only win coming Monday vs PSU by a single point as we discussed. This young Badger team will have a tough time dealing with this quick turnaround after an emotional, must win game on Monday and they have in-state rival Marquette coming on Saturday to add to the mix. We feel Temple is the better team this year and in the much better spot. Lay this low number with the Owls at home. |
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12-05-17 | Texas A&M -2 v. Arizona | Top | 64-67 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -2 over Arizona, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2 While is considered a home game for Arizona it is not on their true home court. The game is being played in Phoenix and while the crowd will obviously overwhelmingly in favor of the Cats it’s still 120 miles from Tucson to Phoenix and the fact that it is not in their own arena is a positive for A&M here. Arizona has come into this season a bit overrated. They just picked up their first top 100 win of the season on Saturday but that took OT vs a UNLV team that ranks 88th. Even in that win the Cats had to rally from an 11 point halftime deficit. Arizona is now just 1-3 on the season vs teams ranked inside the top 100. Not only did they lose those 3 games to Purdue, SMU and NC State, the Wildcats were favored in all of those games. A&M has been very good this season. They are 7-0 and that includes a 4-0 record vs top 100 teams. Not only have they won those games they’ve done so easily topping West Virginia, USC, Oklahoma State, and Penn State all by double digits. Even more impressive, none of those games were at home with 3 being neutral site wins on top of their win @ USC. The Aggie defense has been fantastic as they rank 4th nationally in defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, and 1st in 3 point FG% defense. They are also a very good rebounding team and we know defense & rebounding travels well. Thus why A&M has played so well away from home this season. These two met last season in Houston and Arizona pulled off the tight 67-63 loss. The Aggies are simply the much better team at this point in the season and we expect another comfortable win vs another top 100 team. |
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12-04-17 | Missouri State -2.5 v. North Dakota State | Top | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -2.5 over North Dakota State, Monday at 8:00 PM ET Quick revenge game here for Mizzou State. These two teams met @ Missouri State on November 17th and NDSU pulled off the 57-54 upset as a 9.5 point underdog. Missouri State led 51-48 with under 4:00 minutes remaining and didn’t score a basket the rest of the way. On top of that, the Bears were a ridiculously poor 1 of 17 (6%) from 3 point range and still led late in the game. This is an experienced team with all upperclassmen in their top 8 players and they have been waiting for this game after that loss. The Bears just played @ South Dakota State, one of the pre-season favorites in the Summit, and beat them by 20 points. We definitely rated South Dakota State ahead of this NDSU team who is more than likely a middle of the pack squad in the Summit. The Bison are just 3-4 on the year and their only other wins besides their upset win over Mizzou State were against teams rated below 300. Three of their four losses have come double digits. They are not a great offensive team ranking 231st in offensive efficiency and they are playing a Missouri State defense that ranks 19th nationally in eFG% defense. NDSU has been held under 60 points in 3 of their 7 games and we don’t think they get there tonight. We also expect Missouri State to play MUCH better offensively in this game and they should get plenty of 2nd chances as they are a very good rebounding team (12th nationally in offensive rebounding) and North Dakota State is not. This veteran Missouri State team is the favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference and they have all kinds of motivation here. Lay the small number on the road. |
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12-02-17 | Green Bay v. Belmont -14.5 | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Belmont -14.5 over UW Green Bay, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET Belmont will be hungry for a big win here at home after losing their last 3 games. The Bruins have played a very tough slate (72nd strength of schedule) including 4 top 100 teams. They are 2-2 in those games having beaten MTSU on the road and they topped Vandy by 9 here at home. However their most recent two top 100 games were losses @ Providence by just 1 point and @ TCU earlier this week. Now they take a HUGE step down facing a UWGB team that is among the worst shooting teams in the nation. The Phoenix have played a brutally easy schedule with 4 of their 5 opponents ranked 259th or lower. Their most recent two game home stand Green Bay faced two of the weakest teams in the nation. They beat Florida A&M (ranked 336th nationally out of 351) and won by 7. They followed that up with a double digit loss at home vs Stetson who’s ranked 310th nationally. Despite that weak schedule, the Phoenix are shooting just 34% on the season and only 31% in games away from home. They rank 341st nationally in eFG%. On top of that, this team loves to play up tempo which is a recipe for being on the wrong end of blowouts when you can’t shoot and playing a solid motivated team on the road. Belmont is a very solid program coming off a 23-7 years with 7 straight 20 win seasons under their belt. Unlike UWGB they shoot the ball very well coming in at 46th nationally in eFG%. Inside the arc they hit over 60% of their attempts (11th nationally) and that’s against a very tough schedule as we stated. They should destroy the Phoenix inside the arc where UWGB allows opponents to shoot over 55%. Belmont lost their most recent home game which is a rarity as this team has won 34 of their last 37 games on their home court. You can bet coming off 3 straight loss – to teams all rated much higher than GB – and off a home loss this team is itching to blow someone out. We think it happens here. |
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12-01-17 | Pelicans -2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
We will play ON #715 New Orleans Pelicans (-2.5) over @ Utah Jazz, 9PM ET. If you were a casual bettor and you looked at tonight's game you'd probably bet the home team here that has won 4 straight games and that's GETTING points. Utah's 9-4 SU home record is a little deceiving as only 4 of those wins came over teams with winning records. In their most recent four game winning streak they beat an awful Bulls team, good Bucks and Nuggets teams and a beat up, declining Clippers team. We really love the fact the Pelicans are coming off an awful loss at home to the Wolves where Anthony Davis was ejected. Prior to that game the Pelicans had 3 days off so they'll be rested and ready here. Utah doesn't have the depth on the interior to match Boogie Cousins and Davis with Rudy Gobert on the shelf so points in the paint will be easy to come by for New Orleans. The Pelicans have covered 7 of eleven road games this year and will get a much need W in Utah tonight. |
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11-30-17 | South Carolina v. Temple +1.5 | Top | 60-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Temple +1.5 over South Carolina, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPNU The Gamecocks come in with a 5-1 record but that was expected as they’ve played a very easy slate thus far. In fact, their game vs Temple tonight will be their first against a top 100 team this season. The highest rated team the SC has played was Illinois State at 117th and they lost that game. Other than that they’ve played 2 games vs 124th ranked Western Michigan and then nobody else ranked inside the top 200. They look like they are a bit overrated right now and that’s understandable as the Gamecocks were in the Final 4 a year ago. This isn’t the same team however with only 34% of their total minutes returning from last season. Temple, on the other hand, is a very experienced team with 75% of their minutes back from last year. The Owls have played only 4 games on the season (3-1 record) but even with that they’ve played a MUCH tougher slate to date. Unlike South Carolina, the Owls have played 3 top 100 teams and beat them all (Clemson, Auburn, and Old Dominion) and those games were on a neutral court. With that, this team has proven they can get it done away from home as they have not yet played a home game. While tonight’s game is another neutral site venue in NYC it’s much closer for Temple (just 96 miles away). Both of these teams score the majority of their points from beyond the arc but Temple is much better at shooting from deep (42% from 3 for Temple to 35% for South Carolina). The Owls are also defend the arc more efficiently allowing just 28% which is 24th nationally. We feel that Temple is and will be much better than people might think (undervalued) while South Carolina will have a big drop from last year’s magical run (overvalued). With Temple getting points here will grab it as we expect the Owls to win outright. |
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11-29-17 | UNLV v. Northern Iowa | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #746 Northern Iowa (-1) over UNLV, 8Pm ET. We will play AGAINST the UNLV Runnin Rebels at Northern Iowa Panthers. The staff at Northern Iowa is really good and they'll have their team prepared for a game against the undefeated Rebels tonight. UNI has played the 94th toughest schedule to date featuring games against North Carolina and Villanova. The Panthers game against Nova was much closer than the final score indicates especially considering UNI didn't attempt a free throw in the game. UNLV is undefeated on the season at 6-0 and have some impressive individual statistics but a LARGE reason why they have such fantastic numbers is a result of a very weak schedule (344th). This will mark their first true road game as they are leaving the state of Nevada for the first time this season. This roster features 8 new faces and are young to begin with so a tough road date, facing a team off a loss will be a tall order. UNLV was picked to finish 6th in the MWC so clearly they've over-exceeded expectations to this point. The Panthers return 12 letterwinners from last year's team including 3 starters. The Panthers have the 8th best scoring defense in the nation and have held their last six opponents to under 53PPG on 33.5% shooting. UNI was picked to finish 2nd in the tough Missouri Valley Conference and have a 136-35 SU record at the McLeod Center. Easy call here with the home team. |
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11-26-17 | Texas A&M v. USC -3 | Top | 75-59 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* USC -3 over Texas A&M, Sunday at 10 PM ET This is a terrible spot for A&M. We realize they are a very solid team this year, but not in this spot. This will be the Aggies 4th game in the last 7 days. Not only that, they’ve been all over the country. They played in New York City last Monday & Tuesday. Then played at home on Friday. Now 2 days later they are on the west coast @ USC. Add that to the fact this team began the season in Germany vs West Virginia and they’ve put on more miles than most everyone in college basketball. A&M head coach Kennedy mentioned his team was sluggish at home Friday night in a win over Pepperdine. Fatigue was a factor according to Kennedy. USC is a team that was 26-10 last year, made it to the Sweet 16 last year and returns all 5 starters. They are 4-0 and should be well rested here having not played since Wednesday and that was a home game. USC beat A&M on the road last year 65-63 with the same starting 5 and we think with this situation they win and cover at home tonight. |
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11-25-17 | Spurs v. Hornets | Top | 106-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs (-1.5) over Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - The Bugs are coming off a very tough loss last night to the Cavaliers by a point and this marks their 3rd game in four nights, second of a back to back. San Antonio meanwhile is rested AND coming off a loss so expect a bounce back here. As you would expect the Spurs have a decisive advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency unit and the overall efficiency differential. The Spurs have been dealing with a multitude of injuries this season but are now starting to get healthy sans Kawhi Leonard. We expect a Hornets team to have a hard time getting back up tonight to play another A level team after last night's road loss. Charlotte is just 15-20-1 ATS since 2015 when playing without rest. Play on San Antonio. |
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11-25-17 | Loyola-Chicago -5.5 v. Kent State | Top | 75-60 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Loyola Chicago -5.5 over Kent State, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET Loyola is dialed in right now having gone 6-0 to start the season with five of those wins coming by double digits. The Ramblers have a +14.4 point differential right now which is 51st in the nation. Loyola is getting it done on the offensive and defensive ends of the court as they are shooting over 55.5% (3rd best in NCAA) from the field and holding opponents to just 38.7% (46th best). Kent on the other hand is shooting 46% and allowing 44.2% to opponents. Loyola holds a significant edge when it comes to 3-point shooting over the Flashes with a 40.4% percentage compared to 28.7% (Kent 302nd in country). Last night Kent played Valparaiso who is rated lower than Loyola in our overall rankings yet the Ramblers are only favored here by a few points more than Valpo was last night and they won by 10-points. Loyola is on a 16-3 SU non conference winning streak and we like them to get a double-digit win here! Lay the points! |
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11-22-17 | Detroit v. St. Louis -11 | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* St Louis -11 over Detroit, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET Defense and rebounding are the key here and St Louis has huge edges in both. Detroit is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation ranking 344th (out of 351) in defensive efficiency. They have already allowed 3 of their 4 opponents this year to top 100 points. Teams are shooting 53% vs Detroit overall and 43% from beyond the arc. Just a poor defense all around. This team is also a bad rebounding team. They rank below 250th in BOTH offensive and defensive rebounding. In their two losses, their only games vs teams with a pulse, they were -32 on the glass. Those games came against Seattle & Virginia Tech. Their two wins have come against Michigan Dearborn & Houston Baptist (in OT). They lost at home to Seattle 102-71 and on a neutral court to Va Tech 111-79. In an interesting early season twist, we have some direct comparisons to make as SLU has also played those two teams. The Billikens won both of those games beating a good Virginia Tech team 77-71 on a neutral court and whipping Seattle 62-46 here at Chaifetz Arena in St Louis. While we mentioned that Detroit was -32 on the boards in those two games, the Billikens were +21 on the glass vs those same teams. While neither of these teams is a great shooting team, we expect SLU to benefit from extra opportunities from offensive rebounds. They should also shoot better than their average here as they are at home and facing a very poor defense. St Louis runs away with this one. |
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11-21-17 | Samford +11 v. Valparaiso | Top | 67-88 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #761 Samford +11.5 over @Valparaiso, 8PM ET - This is a very interesting line and the value clearly lies with Samford in this matchup. Let' start with the Bulldogs. They return 90% of their scoring from a season ago from a team that finished 20-16 overall. Conversely, the Crusaders lost 60% of their scoring and have 9 of 12 underclassmen on the roster. The comparable schedules for these two teams isn't even close as Valpo has played North Park, Trinity Christian College, Southern Illinois Edwardsville and Southeast Louisiana. They beat those four lower level teams handily. On the other hand, Samford is 1-3 on the year and the three losses came against Loyola Chicago, LSU and Arkansas who are a combined 10-0 this season. Samford was +10.5 at Arky, +8 at LSU and +7 at Loyola who is projected to finish 3 spots higher than Valparaiso this year in the MVC. Samford loves the role as the underdog as they covered all 4 games last year as a double-digit pooch. Grab the points! |
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11-17-17 | Knicks +8 v. Raptors | Top | 84-107 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: New York Knicks (+8) over Toronto Raptors, 7:35PM ET - If you haven't noticed this Knicks team is much better than the past few editions and we like them as a dog here against the Raptors. Toronto is solid 3-game road trip with a pair of wins over Houston and New Orleans, face New York tonight and have Washington up next. Don't be surprised if the Raptors overlook Knicks here as they've beaten them 7 straight times. New York made some changes in the offseason and it's paying off. The Knicks have won 5 of their last seven games, and 7 of ten. Last season in two meetings on this floor the Raptors were favored by 7.5 and 10-points respectively. Tonight they are laying 8-points to the improved Knicks. Last year the Knicks finished the season with an overall offensive efficiency rating of 107.8 and a defensive efficiency rating of 111.6 (difference of -3.8). This year those numbers have improved to 110.2 (OEFF) and 108.7 (DEFF) for a difference of +1.5. So a better team is getting the same value here tonight. New York's improved field goal percentage defense will be the difference here. Grab the points! |
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11-15-17 | Magic +5 v. Blazers | Top | 94-99 | Push | 0 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
We like the Orlando Magic (+5) over the Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - These two teams have some similar season numbers in regards to efficiency ratings with the one exception being the Blazers advantage in defensive efficiency. But we temper those numbers considering the Blazers have played the 2nd easiest schedule in the NBA. Portland had the 24th worst defensive efficiency rating a year ago but are 3rd this year, which again is very misleading based on the schedule. Orlando is a top 10 team in terms of overall efficiency differentials and have played an 'average' schedule giving us a true indicator of where they stand. In their last five road games the Magic are 3-2 SU with two solid wins over Memphis and New Orleans. They lost most recently in Denver on the second night of a back to back and in Golden State. We like them to bounce back here against Portland who is 5-4 SU at home but only two of those wins came against teams with current winning records. The Blazers have a home point differential of just +2.4PPG while the Magic are 1 of just twelve teams in the league with a positive road differential (+1.9PPG). The number on this game is simply too high and we won't be surprised when Orlando wins outright. |
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11-14-17 | Raptors +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 129-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Toronto Raptors (+6.5) over Houston Rockets, 8PM ET - We like the points here with a good Raptors team coming off a loss against a Rockets team laying an inflated number. First off, the Rockets have won 6 straight but the wins aren't that impressive (Knicks, Hawks, Jazz, Cavs, Grizzlies and Pacers) who are a combined 12 games under .500. Now they step up against a Raptors team that is every bit as talented and motivated off a loss. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive efficiency but the Rockets surprisingly are better in defensive efficiency ratings. The Raptors were 11th in DEFF a season ago and will trend back to those numbers as the season goes on. Toronto was one of just six teams in the entire NBA a year ago to have a positive road point differential, so this veteran team is certainly capable of winning anywhere in the NBA. The Raptors are a contender in the East and are getting too many points here considering the Rockets were just minus -6.5 points against the Jazz and minus -5.5 points against the Cavs who are not playing as well as Toronto right now (similar in OEFF but drastic difference in DEFF). The Raptors were plus +2.5 points less than a month ago in San Antonio. Against the better teams in the league the Raptors have road results of: -4 points @ San Antonio, -5 points at Golden State, -1 point at Boston. Easy call here with the value and Toronto Raptors. |
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11-13-17 | Wolves -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 109-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
We will PLAY ON the Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5) over the Utah Jazz. We feel this is a short enough number to lay on the road with the Wolves who are coming off two straight road losses and will look to bounce back here. Minnesota hasn't played great overall defense this year but are trending in the right direction. They held three straight foes to under 100 points before playing the fast paced Suns and high scoring Warriors. Tonight they face a Utah Jazz team really struggling with their shooting. The Jazz have shot just 43.1% on the year which is 27th in the NBA. In their last five games they've hit less than 40% of their field goal attempts and have averaged just 99PPG. What makes matters worse for the Jazz is that they recently lost Rudy Gobert to a knee injury which takes away one of the league's best defensive centers. Utah has lost 3 of their last four home games with the lone win coming their last time out against the Nets who are again one of the league's worst teams. Minnesota has won 3 of their last six road games (Pelicans, Heat and Thunder) and all three were over better teams than tonight's Jazz team. Based on trending efficiency numbers we like the Wolves to get a 10-point win here. |
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11-10-17 | Magic -3.5 v. Suns | Top | 128-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
We will play on the Orlando Magic (-3.5) over the Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET - It seems strange to be laying points on the road with the Magic but it's absolutely warranted here. Orlando has some very good metrics this season that may surprise a lot of casual bettors. The Magic are 9th in overall efficiency differential at +3.6 in the NBA while the Suns are dead last at -9.7. Orlando is in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency ratings, compared to the Suns who are bottom 5. The Magic are a top 5 offensive efficiency team, Phoenix is in the bottom 3. You can see for yourself these two teams are further apart based on efficiency differentials than the actual pointspread is tonight. Orlando is already 3-2 SU on the road this season and the three wins have come over much better teams than the Suns tonight (Grizzlies, Pelicans and Cavaliers). Phoenix has lost 4 straight games, 3 of which were by double-digits and two were home games against the Nets and Heat. Orlando is one of the better shooting teams in the league at 49% while the Suns struggle to shoot at just 43% and that will be a big factor in tonight's outcome. The Magic have covered 5 of the last six meetings against the Suns. Lay the points with Orlando. |
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11-06-17 | Heat +15.5 v. Warriors | Top | 80-97 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
PLAY ON: MIAMI HEAT - We will grab the points with the Miami Heat over the Golden State Warriors. The Heat are off a road win yesterday against the Clippers and will be playing without rest here, but the Warriors aren't in the best scheduling situation either. Golden State is off a 3-game road trip with their last game coming in the higher attitude of Denver AND they have a big TV game on deck versus the Wolves. Miami was 18-23 SU on the road last year and had the 10th best road differential in the league (tied with the Cavaliers) at minus -1.8PPG. Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA a season ago at +15.9PPG but they are just 2-2 SU at home this year, 0-4 ATS. Miami can contend here because they defend the 3-point line (4th in league a year ago) as good as anyone in the NBA. Last season the Warriors won their home game against the Heat by 12 and Miami beat them in South Beach. The Heat were 10-4 ATS last year as a road dog of 7+ points. Grab the points with Miami. |
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10-30-17 | Warriors -5 v. Clippers | Top | 141-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (-) over LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET - We will lay the points with the Golden State Warriors over the LA Clippers. I like the Clippers to be better than most experts are predicting but they aren't one of the best teams in the NBA either. Sure, they've gotten off to a 4-1 SU start without Chris Paul but they've also played Phoenix and the Lakers, two of the worst teams a year ago. The Warriors are just 4-3 SU on the season and coming off a home loss to the Pistons. Golden State has faced four playoff teams from a year ago and a much improved Pelicans team. Golden State is 15-3 SU off a loss their last eighteen games and are laying a marginal number here on the road considering their road point differential from a year ago was +7.4PPG (best in NBA). Golden State was 31-10 SU away in the regular season a year ago and is on a 38-11 SU streak as a road chalk. The Clippers aren't home dogs very often, just 7 times last year, but they were just 2-5 SU, 3-4ATS in that role. The clincher here is the dominance of the Warriors over the Clippers in recent years with a 10-0 SU record, which includes 4-0 last year with all 4 wins coming by double digits. The two games played on this court were 13 and 17 point margins in favor of Golden State. Lay the points on the road with GST. |
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10-20-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
Play on: Boston Celtics (+2) over @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET - The Celtics clearly suffered a huge blow on the opening night of the season when they lost Gordon Hayward and then were beaten by the Cavaliers. They returned home to face the up-and-coming Bucks at home and lost outright as a small chalk. Philly meanwhile lost at Washington and have core of young exciting talent on the roster. But has the 76ers roster improved that much they should be favored over the team that had the best overall record in the East last year? Granted, the Celtics have a new roster and lost Hayward, but Philly was a favorite just TWO TIMES all last season. In fact, the 76ers have been instilled as a chalk by the oddsmakers just 6 times in the past two full seasons! Boston is off two straight losses (24-13 65% SU off a 'L' last year) to start the season (versus playoff teams) and now step way down in talent here. The 76ers don't have anyone that can guard Kyrie Irving here yet Boston has Horford to defend Embiid. Easy bet on Boston. |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
We are going to play on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in Game 5. Before the series started we predicted a Warriors sweep or win in 5 games and we'll stick with that thought process. The first two games were dominated by the Warriors at home with a total differential of plus + 41 points. Just because the Cavs won the last game in this series doesn't mean they've suddenly turned their 'defensive ship' around and can stop the Warriors here. GST had a +15.0 point differential at home during the regular season and are averaging +17.9PPG at home in the playoffs. Cleveland is allowing 1.11 points per possession in the Playoffs after allowing 1.104PPP during the regular season. In case you don't remember this from previous posts, that defensive efficiency rating of 1.104PPP ranked them in the bottom third of the NBA this season. I'm not going to be fooled by the Cavs win in the previous game as the stars aligned perfectly for them and they made shots (at home) and benefitted from 22 free throw attempts in the first quarter. FYI - the league record for most attempts in a quarter in NBA HISTORY is 32. Back at home the Warriors will shoot better as they averaged 50% shooting on their home court and allowed opponents to hit just 43%. Golden State perfect 7-0 SU at home off a loss this year and bounce back here to end the series. |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
We will play the Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) at home over Golden State in Game 3 Wednesday, 8PM ET. The Warriors were obviously very good to us in the first two games of this series and we do have Golden State as our series bet but if there is one game the Cavs will win it's this one. Here's what we saw in our break down of Game 2. As the game wore on the Cavs started grabbing and holding the Warriors more and more, especially Steph Curry, and the officials swallowed their whistles. Last year, the Cavs big turning point is the series was when Dellavedova employed his 'mugging' mentality against Curry and held him to 22PPG in the Finals. On Wednesday night we expect Curry to essentially get assaulted by Cleveland and doubt the officials are going to call much. When you are watching the game pay close attention to the Warrior players OFF the ball and you'll see what I'm talking about. Yes, the Warriors were a fantastic road team this year with a 37-10 SU record, but the Cavs were 36-11 SU at home and are off two humiliating losses. Last year in a similar setting the Cavs won Game 3 at home by 30 as a -1.5 point favorite. Based on the season long numbers the Cavs shouldn't be this big of an underdog here given these circumstances. In the past two season's the Cavs have produced a 25-5 SU (83%) record when playing at home and off a loss in their previous game. Cleveland has been the most efficient offense in the playoffs at home this season by averaging 1.213 points per possession and they have a home differential of +8.3PPG. LeBron will get every call imaginable tonight and the Cavs steal a game in the series. |
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06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors (-8.5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, Game 2 Sun, 8 ET - We will play ON the Golden State Warriors again minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2. This is going to sound eerily like our first writeup but our base analysis remains the same. Offensively the Warriors were the #1 ranked regular season offensive efficiency team in the league averaging 1.156 points per possession. In the playoffs, they have improved that number to 1.181PPP and that uptick comes after playing the Spurs and Jazz who were 1st and 3rd in defensive efficiency ratings. Now the Warriors face a Cleveland team that was 21st in DEFF this regular season and have been slightly better in the post-season allowing 1.083PPP, which would still have ranked them 11th in the regular season. Don't forget the slight post-season improvement came against a Raptor and Celtics team missing their All-Star points guards in Lowry and Thomas. Defensively there is no comparison between these two teams, which was very apparent in Game 1, as the Warriors had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season, allowing just 1.04 points per possession and they've bettered that number in the playoffs allowing just 1.018PPP. The Cavs defense was thoroughly exposed in Game 1 and they can’t just ‘flip a switch’ and be great defensively in the playoffs. It just doesn’t work that way. Also, don't be fooled into thinking the Cavs are a great bet here getting points as they were just 5-1 1 as a dog this season. When coming off a loss this year the Cavs are also just a 50/50 proposition with an 8-8 SU record. Looking at the shot chart from Game 1 we see the outcome of that game could have been much worse as the Warriors missed 20-point point-blank shots in the lane and 30 overall for the game. When LeBron and the Cavs organization assembled this roster, they should have considered some defensive minded players. In last year’s Finals the Warriors won Game 1 big then came back and blew the Cavs out by 33 in Game 2. With an average point differential of plus +16.5PPG at home this year we like the Warriors chances to get another double digit win in Game 2. Lay the points. |
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05-19-17 | Cavs -5 v. Celtics | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Play ON the Cleveland Cavaliers (-5) over the Boston Celtics, Fri 8:30PM ET. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price here based on the regular season meetings and earlier rounds of this playoffs, but we feel it's warranted. During the regular season the Cavs won 3 of four meetings and the last meeting was a Cleveland win by 23 on this same court. The Cavs unveiled some different defensive strategies against Thomas, and held Boston to just 91 points. In Game 1 the Cavaliers dominated the Celtics and the final score was misleading as Cleveland lead by as many as 28-points in the game. What stands out is how “poorly” the Cavs shot from beyond the arc as they hit “just” 38.8% from 3. In the post season, they are shooting just under 43% from the 3-point line. Boston had decent numbers in Game 1 and were still blown out by this Cavs team that is on a mission. Cleveland is 9-0 in the post season with an average point differential of +9.6PPG which is second only to Golden State's +17-point differential in the Playoffs. The Cavs playoff ROAD point differential or average margin of victory is 9.3PPG. If there was a game Boston was going to win this series it’s this one but we’re not about to go against this Cleveland team right now. |
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05-17-17 | Cavs -4 v. Celtics | Top | 117-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
We will play ON the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 over the Boston Celtics, Weds 7:30PM ET. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price here based on the regular season meetings and earlier rounds of this playoffs, but we feel it's warranted. Boston is coming off that grueling 7-game series with Washington and have just 1-day rest. Cleveland meanwhile has been off since May 7th and comes into this game fresh. During the regular season the Cavs won 3 of four meetings and the most recent meeting was a Cleveland win by 23 on this same court. I went back and watched that game and what stood out to me, is how the Cavs unveiled some different defensive strategies against Thomas, and how they held Boston to just 91 points. There are some bad matchups in this game for the Celtics and the Cavs have had a ton of time to figure out the best way to exploit those advantages. Cleveland is 8-0 in the post season with an average point differential of +9.6PPG which is second only to Golden State's +14.9 point differential in the Playoffs. The Cavs playoff ROAD point differential or average margin of victory is 9.3PPG. Given the circumstances we will lay the points with Cleveland on the road here. We will play OVER in the Cleveland Cavaliers versus the Boston Celtics, Weds 7:30PM ET. |
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05-14-17 | Spurs v. Warriors -9.5 | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Golden State -9.5 over San Antonio, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET We like a focused, rested and motivated Warriors team to get a big home win to open this series. Let's face it the Warriors haven't been tested but will be here so we'll get a max effort. Golden State had a home average point differential of +15.9PPG at home this year which was the best number in the NBA. In the playoffs at home that differential is +16PPG. They have won 7 of their 8 playoff games thus far by at least 10 points. Granted, the Spurs are better than the teams they've faced but San Antonio is coming off two very hard fought series against Memphis and Houston and are without Parker and a less than 100% Leonard. Golden State on the other hand is rested and ready to make a statement in game 1. The regular season meetings really don't tell us much as both teams rested players but the current situation clearly favors Golden State. Surprisingly, since the start of the 2015 season, 7 of the 9 meetings between these 2 have been decided by at least 10 points. We call for Golden State to keep that trend alive today. This line may seem high but is it? Just a few days ago San Antonio was an 8.5 point underdog @ Houston in Game 6. Now laying just one point more with the Warriors in a much better situation is hardly too many points. Lay in in Sunday with Golden State. |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on the Houston Rockets (-5) over San Antonio Spurs, Game 3 Friday, 9:30PM ET. We successfully played on the Spurs in Game 2 but will flip side here with a wager on the Rockets at home. Houston played well for three quarters in the previous meeting and entered the 4th quarter down just 5-points. But unfortunately for them, the Spurs outscored them 33-13 in the 4th. San Antonio was in a must win situation at home and off and embarrassing loss so it was expected they play well in Game 2. The Spurs shot nearly 55% from the field but we doubt they can repeat that performance on the road tonight. In their 3 road games against an average Memphis team, they averaged 45% shooting from the field and went 1-2 SU. Now they travel to Houston to face a Rockets team off a poor overall showing where James Harden managed just 13-points. The Rockets have won 10 of their last twelve home games and were a perfect 3-0 SU against the Thunder in the opening round. Houston was 30-11 SU at home this year with the second best average home differential of +8.9PPG and they won 7 of nine at home when off a SU loss. Tony Parker of the Spurs was playing EXTREMELY well in the post-season and his loss will affect the team’s regular rotation. Houston gets a double-digit win here. Lay it! |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
Play on Washington Wizards (-5) over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET - The Wiz are obviously down 0-2 in the series and backed into a corner here. Washington has played really well in stretches against the Celtics in the first two games, but unfortunately for them they couldn't sustain it for four quarters. Now back at home, where they were 30-11 SU with an average point differential of +4.9PPG, they'll get the added energy from their home crowd to finish quarters. The home team has won and covered all six meeting this season between these two teams and there's no reason to think that will change here. Not to mention, the Wizard are 17-4 SU, 12-9 ATS this season when playing at home off a loss. Boston has shot the lights out the first two games of this series by making over 51% of their field goal attempts and a combined 32 three-pointers. On the season the C's have averaged 45% shooting when playing on the road so don't expect them to continue on their torrid shooting streak in Washington. The value on this game is not what it should be and we know we are laying a premium price but it's warranted here in this situation. Take the Wizard minus the points. |
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05-02-17 | Jazz v. Warriors -13 | Top | 94-106 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
ASA play on the Golden State Warriors (-13) over the Utah Jazz. At first glance this seems like a daunting number for a second-round playoff game but it’s not. The Warriors are rested, dialed in and on a mission. The Jazz should let down here after a HUGE emotional road win over the Clippers. Golden State is 19-7 SU against top 10 teams in the NBA this season. Utah in that same comparison is just 14-19 SU against that level of competition this season. Granted, that’s straight up and not against the spread but it’s also a solid indicator of how these teams do against the league’s best teams. The Warriors were 36-5 SU at home this year with a ridiculous average point differential of plus +15.9PPG. They opened the playoffs with a 12-point and 29-point home wins over the Blazers. In the two regular season meetings between these two teams on this court the Warriors won the first meeting by 30-points. The second meeting was one of the last games of the season and the Warriors rested players in a throw away game, which resulted in a Jazz 6-point win. When you talk about the Jazz the first thing mentioned is defense. Utah had the 3rd best defensive efficiency in the NBA allowing just 1.053 points per possession. The problem is that Golden State is better in that same category allowing just 1.040PPP. Offensively, there is not comparison as the Warriors rank 1st in offensive efficiency averaging 1.156PPP while the Jazz are 13th at 1.096PPP. Golden State has covered 6 of the last seven at home against the Jazz and Game #1 is going to be a blowout! |
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05-01-17 | Raptors v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5) over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET - I'm not going to lie, this wager for us has been brewing since October 28th when these two teams met in Toronto and we bet the Raptors +2.5 points at home over the Cavs. Going into that game, the Raptors had all summer to stew after losing to the Cavs in the playoffs last year, and looked like a perfect opportunity to wager on the Raps as a home dog. But Cleveland won by 3-points and then proceeded to win the next two regular season meetings, before losing at the end of the season in a meaningless game at home (evidence it was meaningless as the Raptors were favored by 3 points on the road). Now the Cavs are laying a reasonable number at home considering the Raptors were just a 2-point dog in Milwaukee who is far worse than Cleveland. The Cavaliers were tied with the Spurs during the regular season with the 4th best point differential in the NBA at home of +8.1PPG. They are 75-19 SU at home the past two seasons and have a 15-10 ATS record at home in the playoffs the last two years. Since 2013 the Raptors have a playoff record of 12-24-1 ATS (33.3%) which is the second worst percentage in the NBA over that span of time. The mental aspect of this game clearly favors the Cavaliers and we are betting this game plays out much like last year's playoff home games for the Cavs when they beat Toronto on this court by 31, 19 and 38 points. When we 'tweak' a couple important variables within our math model it suggests a double digit win by Cleveland. Lay it! |
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04-22-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
ASA's 10* NBA PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR - PLAY ON San Antonio -3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET We love this wager on the San Antonio Spurs over Memphis Grizzlies, Game 4 Saturday, 8PM ET. The Spurs won the first two games of the series then played poorly in Game 3 and lost to the Grizzlies by 11-points. Memphis played great in Game 3 but the margin wasn’t insurmountable for the Spurs on an off day. The Grizzlies shot nearly 51% as a team, 41% from the 3-point line, 90% from the FT line and only had 5 turnovers. We like when elite teams are coming off a bad loss and with a marginal spread here this is an easy call to lay the points with the visitor. The Spurs road record of 31-11 SU this year is better than the Grizzlies 25-17 SU record. San Antonio had an average road point differential of +6.2PPG which is better than all but 6 teams HOME differentials in the entire league. That’s amazing when you really think about it! In comparison, the Grizzlies home differential was +2.1PPG which is 21st worst in the entire league. San Antonio was 16-5 SU this season when coming off a loss and an INCREDIBLE 95-30 SU (76%) off a beat since 2012. With this line being as low as it is we are basically just asking them to win this game outright and odds are when they win it will be by more than 4-points. Memphis lost a key defensive cog with the injury to Tony Allen and that’s one less defender to slow down Kawhi Leonard. Easy call here for a wager on Coach Popp and the Spurs to bounce back with a win over a mediocre Memphis team. Lay it! |
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04-20-17 | Raptors v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) over Toronto Raptors. The natural shift in this line has this number right where it should be but we felt the Bucks would be a few points higher than it is. Milwaukee outplayed the Raptors in both games in our opinion and had two 3’s rim out late in Game 2 which would have given them a lead, and could have altered that outcome putting them up 2-0 in the series. The Bucks shot just 41.4% in Game 2 after hitting 44.7% in Game 1 and now that they are back home, expect those shooting percentages to go up. On the year, the Bucks shot 47.9% at home (6th best in the NBA), and over 37% (13th) from beyond the arc. The Bucks closed the regular season out by winning 8 of their last ten home games which included a 7-point win against this same Raptors team as a 1-point favorite. Since 2013 the Raptors have the lowest ATS winning percentage in the NBA at 28.1% (9-23-1 ATS record) so it’s not like we are playing against a franchise with a solid recent history of winning in the post season. Not to mention, one of the Raptors key players, Kyle Lowry is not known as a clutch player in the postseason. Even though he made the game winner the other night, Lowry has a career playoff shooting percentage of just .381% which is well below his season averages. The Bucks were 7-3 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of -2.5-points or less and we feel they take care of business at home in Game #3. |
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04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: @TORONTO RAPTORS (-7) over Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30PM ET - We are playing on the Toronto Raptors at home minus the points (-7) over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. The Raptors are 60-22 SU at home last 2 seasons with an average point differential of 7.1PPG which is the 5th best differential in the entire NBA the past two years. They have a veteran team that is healthy right now and know what it takes to win in the playoffs. We feel the Lowry injury was a blessing for the Raptors how had the opportunity to develop some other players and build chemistry. As far as the season series is concerned, the Raptors won 3 of 4 meetings with Bucks this year and both home games were blowouts by 16 and 22 points. The young Bucks have a bright future and may win a few games in this series, just not the opener on the road. On the year the Bucks had a negative road differential of -2.9PPG which is exactly league average. Milwaukee was out-shot and out-rebounded in both games in Toronto and lost by a combined 38 total points AND that was with starter Jabari Parker in the lineup who scored 48 points in those 2 contests. Raps 5-1 ATS last six meetings and chalk has covered 21 of the last 29 between these two teams. Any way we slice it comes up Toronto in Game 1. |
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04-11-17 | Nuggets v. Mavs -2 | Top | 109-91 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
ASA play on: Dallas Mavericks (-2) over Denver Nuggets, 8:35PM ET - The Denver Nuggets were eliminated from the playoffs in heart-breaking fashion the other night at home when Russell Westbrook hit a 26-foot jumper at the buzzer to beat Denver. It's only human nature to let down here after that emotional beat. With literally nothing to play for we don't expect a focused Nuggets team to put up much of a fight here. Dallas on the other hand is coming off a blowout loss and will be playing their final home game of the season and will want to reward their loyal followers with a good showing. Sure, the Mavs are just 1-4 SU their last five home games but take a look at who they played: Spurs, Thunder, Raptors, Clippers and Warriors. Those are five of the best teams in the NBA (excluding OKC who is good but not great). The Nuggets were recently a 2-point home favorite over the Mavs which means this line should be much higher than it currently is. The Mavs as a low chalk have been great this year with a 7-1 ATS mark when laying 3.5 or less points. Nuggets have not covered a game in Dallas in 5 straight tries! Given the circumstances this sets up to be an EASY win for Dallas! |
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04-04-17 | Blazers v. Jazz -6 | Top | 87-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz (-6) over Portland Trailblazers, 10:35PM ET - This is clearly a big game for both teams as the Jazz are fighting for the 4th spot in the West and a first round home series versus the Clippers. Portland on the other hand is fighting for the 8th and final spot in the West. At first glance this looks like a tough call but really it's not. We consider the Jazz one of the 8 best teams in the league and this is a great spot to play on them considering they are off a loss in San Antonio their last game out. Utah is 5-1 SU their last six when playing at home off a loss and all five of those victories came by 6 or more points. The Jazz are 26-12 SU at home this season with the 7th best home differential in the NBA of +6PPG. Portland is 16-24 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -3.8PPG. They have been good when playing without rest this year, but a key injury to starting center Jusuf Nurkic, has really hurt their depth and front court presence. Last night in Minny, Karl-Anthony Towns dominated the Blazers bigs with a 34-point, 12 rebound night. Jazz center Rudy Gobert could put up similar numbers tonight. The home team has been the bet in this series as they hold a 5-0 ATS record and four of the five wins by the home team have been blowouts. Play on the Jazz! |
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04-01-17 | Oregon +5 v. North Carolina | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 52 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oregon +5 over UNC, Saturday at 8:35 PM ET The Ducks run to the Final 4 has been extremely impressive as they topped one of the hottest teams in the country (Michigan) in the Sweet 16 and then beat what many considered to be the favorite to win it all (Kansas) in the Elite 8. They Jayhawks were basically at home in Kansas City and they were rolling to say the least winning their first 3 NCAA tourney games all by at least 20 points. Even with that, Oregon handled the Jayhawks by 14 points in a game that was never really in doubt. KU’s only lead of the game was 3-2. The Ducks are 33-5 on the season and 3 of their 5 losses have come by 4 points or less. UNC is obviously very good but we feel they are a bit overrated right now. This team struggled to beat Arkansas in the round of 32 and had to come from 5 points down with 5:00 to go to beat Kentucky by 2 points on a shot at the buzzer. With PG Berry not at 100%, and maybe not even close to it, we think UNC is absolutely beatable here. These two teams are very close in a number of key statistical categories and actually Oregon is the better shooting team (48.4% to 46.9%) and better defensively allowing 65 PPG on 40.7% shooting to UNC’s 71 PPG allowed and 41.7%. The Ducks athletes are absolutely on par with UNC and may actually be better. They should be able to hold their own on the defensive boards which is key vs the Tar Heels. As far as NBA talent goes, the Heels do not have an advantage as they have 2 of the top 53 prospects according the Chad Ford (Jackson & Bradley) while Oregon actually has 3 (Brooks, Dorsey, and Bell). UNC was just a 1.5 point favorite on a neutral court vs Kentucky. Based on that alone, they should be 2.5 or 3 at the very most here. We’re getting value with a very good Oregon team. Don’t be at all surprised if they pull the upset here. |
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03-31-17 | Pacers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
ASA play on: Toronto Raptors (-5.5) over Indiana Pacers. There really isn't a reason to expect the Pacers to suddenly turn around their road fortunes tonight in Toronto against a Raptors team that is really good on their home floor. Toronto is 25-13 SU on their home court this year with the 6th best average point differential in the NBA of +7.7PPG. By comparison, Indiana is just 11-26 SU away this season with a negative differential of minus -6.5PPG which is 8th worst in the league. The Pacers have lost 6 straight road games by an average of 13PPG, so as I said before, why would they do a 180 tonight and play well away from home? Both teams have plenty to play for as the Raptors are looking to move up in the East, while the Pacers are trying to hold on to a playoff spot. We do like the fact the Raptors are off a home loss here as they have covered 5 of their last six off a loss anyplace. They have back to back home losses just once this season and that came to a San Antonio Spurs team that is one of the best teams in the league. Toronto recently beat the Pacers 116-91 and dominated the boards 51-33. Expect much of the same tonight. |
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03-30-17 | Georgia Tech +4.5 v. TCU | Top | 56-88 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +4.5 over TCU, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET We faded this Tech team on Tuesday as they were facing a red hot CS Bakersfield squad that made it to the NIT Final 4 by winning 3 road games vs 3 very good opponents. Needless to say we were impressed with the Jackets and what they were able to do vs a very good opponent. We always look long and hard at “defensive dogs” in college basketball and that’s what we have here. Tech ranks 6th nationally in defensive efficiency a full 50 spots ahead of TCU. If we look strictly at defensive eFG% it’s even more drastic as GT ranks 17th in that category while the Frogs come in at 178th. Tech’s problem at times has been on the offensive end but they look like they might be peaking on that end of the court at the right time topping 70 points in all 4 of their NIT contests. They’ve done that against 4 defenses (Indiana, Belmont, Ole Miss, and CS Bakersfield) that rank better than TCU in eFG% defense. They’ve shot over 47% from the field so far in this tourney vs 4 solid defenses. If the Jackets do that, they are obviously very tough to beat because they are a shut down team defensively. We think that offensive trend will continue tonight vs TCU. The Frogs had just one win in the Big 12 regular season vs a team that finished in the top half of the conference (Iowa State at home). That’s it. Meanwhile GT beat North Carolina, Florida State, Notre Dame, and Syracuse. We expect this to be a tightly contested game throughout and the number is too high. Take the points and Georgia Tech. |
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03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield +2.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 61-76 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON CS Baskersfield +2.5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN - NIT GAME OF THE YEAR CS Bakersfield has been more than impressive during their 3 game NIT run thus far. They have won all 3 of those games on the road all vs top 90 teams. Their NIT road wins came against Cal (who was 15-3 at home with 3 losses coming to Arizona, Oregon, and Virginia), Colorado State (who was 15-4 at home), and UT Arlington (who came into the game 14-0 at home). Impressive to say the least. Those wins improved the Roadrunners road/neutral record to 13-8 on the season. They’ve proven all season long they can get it done on the road. Over the last two seasons this group is 23-16 on the road. A few of their road losses this year came vs top notch teams early in the season. They had competitive losses @ SMU, @ Arizona, and @ BYU. Their 6 point loss @ SMU, who was 18-0 at home, was their 2nd closest home win of the season. This is a HUGE deal to this team. They are rarely in the spotlight and a trip to NYC, playing on ESPN, and a chance to win the NIT is of massive importance to this veteran team (3 seniors & 2 juniors in the starting line up). This was the best team in the WAC all season winning the regular season title but getting tripped up by New Mexico State in the tourney final. These veterans are 25-9 this year and they were 24-9 last season. The Roadrunners are a great defensive team ranking 3rd nationally in defensive eFG%. The only two teams ranked higher in that category are Gonzaga (in the Final 4) and UCF (in the NIT Final 4). As far as defensive efficiency goes, they rank 15th nationally which is higher than two Final 4 teams (UNC & Oregon). Georgia Tech had the luxury of playing 2 home games in their 3 game journey to NYC. They have been a bad road team all season long with a 4-11 mark in road/neutral games. They struggle offensively and will again tonight vs a top notch defense. We think CSB will prove to be the tougher, more motivated team tonight and in our opinion, they are simply better than the Jackets. Take the points. |
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03-26-17 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Florida | Top | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* South Carolina +3.5 over Florida, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET We've broken down film on these two teams most recent games and feel the Gamecocks are simply the better team at this moment and that the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored. South Carolina had a fantastic start to the season and were considered one of the better teams in the country before a late game skid caused some doubts. Now they are playing lights out basketball with three really impressive wins in row over Marquette, Duke and Baylor. Florida is no slouch either but they beat East Tennessee State, a Virginia team that was really struggling late in the season and it took OT to beat a sound Wisconsin team. The Badgers had problems with the Gators athletic style of play which is not a concern for South Carolina who can match them physically. In the two meetings this season the Gators beat the Gamecocks by 15 at home as a -7.5-point favorite while the Cocks won at home by 4 as a 2-point chalk. If we break this game down according to season stats and efficiency ratings the Gators look like the better overall team. But when you analyze how each team is CURRENTLY playing, it's clear the Gamecocks are better. Grab whatever points are available for insurance, but don't be surprised with an upset. Elite 8 dogs (29-19 ATS since 2004) are the way to go. |
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03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kentucky +1.5 over UCLA, Friday at 9:35 PM ET We’ve said all along we don’t expect UCLA to get to the Final 4 because their defense is simply a tier below many of the other schools. If the Bruins did make it to Arizona, they would do so with the lowest rated defense (79th nationally in defensive efficiency) to make a Final 4 since 2002. Their offense is great. They were able to overwhelm Cincinnati midway through the 2nd half because their offense was so much better than the Bearcats. Remember Cincy led that game at half and for much of the first part of the 2nd half but just couldn’t keep up on offense losing 79-67. Now UCLA faces a team that is close to being on par with them offensively as Kentucky checks in with the 12th most efficient offense in the nation (UCLA is 2nd). However, one of the reasons we like the Cats here is they are MUCH better on the defensive end ranking 7th nationally. The gap between these two defenses is much wider than the offensive gap. On top of that, Kentucky is the better rebounding team. Throw in the fact that this is a revenge game as UCLA beat Kentucky 97-92 at Rupp Arena in early December snapping the Cats 42 game home winning streak and we have UK coming into with big time motivation. UCLA was able to hit 53% of their shots in that game while Kentucky made only 41% but it was still a tight game down the stretch. The Wildcats have improved immensely on defense since that outing holding 10 of their last 12 opponents to 70 points or less. While we don’t expect them to shut down UCLA here, we think they’ll play much better on that end of the court and exploit UCLA’s defense here for the win. Kentucky comes into this game as an underdog for just the 2nd time this season and the crowd in Memphis will be a big time edge for Kentucky. Take the Cats. |
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03-23-17 | West Virginia +3.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 50 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* West Virginia +3.5 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET The Zags did not look like a #1 seed over the first weekend. They struggled with a South Dakota State team that finished tied for 4th in the Summit League and then had Northwestern on the ropes and let the Cats come back and nearly pull the upset. We were on the Zags vs NW as we felt it was a perfect situation for them. Coming off a bad first outing for a top rated seed usually leads to a much better effort in game 2. They had a NW team that was simply happy to be in the Dance and off their first win ever in the NCAA tourney. They jumped out to a 22 point lead which is exactly as we felt the game would play out early. From that point on Gonzaga looked like an average team giving an OK, not great, Northwestern team a shot to win the game late. Now they get a very tough match up in the Sweet 16. WVU is a physical team that dominates the offensive boards (#6 nationally) and pressures offenses with waves of physically talented players. They are #1 in the nation at creating turnovers and while the Zags season long stats indicate they don’t turn the ball over a lot, however they don’t see anything like this defense during the season. In fact, 6 of their 9 opponents in the West Coast Conference rank 279th or lower in defensive turnover percentage. Only one ranks in the top 100. Now they face a team with better athletes than they are used to seeing that creates turnovers at the highest rate in the nation and plays in a much better conference (Big 12) while doing so. WVU runs a pressure defense that’s almost impossible to duplicate in practice. The Zags actually had more turnovers than assists in each of their first two NCAA games and those teams are nowhere near as good as West Virginia. They also don’t see great offensive rebounding teams with only 1 WCC team (St Marys) ranked in the top 100 in that category. Because of they often dominate the offensive glass and create turnovers, the Mountaineers often have more opportunities to score on the offensive end. Just over the last 10 games they have attempted 77 more shots than their opponents and that’s mainly vs very good Big 12 opponents. If they continue to shoot well (48% in first two NCAA games) they’ll be very tough to beat. As we stated, the Zags struggle with teams that are FAR inferior to WVU and if they play like that again Thursday, they have no chance to win. We like the dog here. |
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03-22-17 | Illinois-Chicago v. Coastal Carolina -3.5 | Top | 78-89 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Coastal Carolina -3.5 over Illinois Chicago, Wednesday at 7:00PM ET We’re definitely getting some line value here with CC. The Chanticleers were just favored by 5.5 at home vs Loyola Maryland on Monday and now they are laying just 3.5 to UIC, two teams that are rated almost the same (Loyola 226th nationally & UIC 232nd). The situation here also heavily favors Coastal as they were at home on Monday and at home again tonight. UIC, on the other hand, has to travel for the first time in the CBI tourney. The Flames also played at home on Monday and now having to travel and play 2 days later gives them very little time to prepare for CC. On top of that, this post-season road situation is something nobody on UIC’s roster has ever been involved with. This is the youngest team in the nation with 4 freshmen in the starting line up & none of the other Flames have ever played in the post-season before this year. Coastal, on the other hand, is a veteran team (4 upperclassmen in the starting line-up) that has turned it on down the stretch winning 9 of their last 11 home games with their two losses each coming by 2 points. CC has better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively. They also finished 10-8 in the tougher Sun Belt compared to UIC’s 7-11 record in the lower rated Horizon. This one sets up nicely and we’ll take Coastal Carolina to win and cover. |
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03-21-17 | Georgia Tech v. Ole Miss -5 | Top | 74-66 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss -5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2 While both are 2-0 in the NIT, the Ole Miss path has proven much more impressive. The Rebs won both games on the road @ Monmouth, who was easily the best team in the Metro Atlantic this year, and then a win @ Syracuse, who many felt should have been in the Big Dance. Now they are thrilled to finally get a home game and with a win they move to the NIT Final 4. If Mississippi was able to beat two very solid opponents on the road, we’re confident they can get a win at home in this one. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has played both of their games at home getting wins over a disinterested Indiana team that has quit on the season and Belmont. Now Tech must travel for the first time in this tourney and they were terrible on the road all season long. The Jackets were 2-10 in road games this year losing by an average of 12 PPG. This team leans heavily on their defense and their numbers on that end of the court dropped significantly away from home. At home Tech allowed just 61 PPG and opponents shot under 40%. On the road they gave up 76 PPG and teams shot 46% from the field. A drastic difference to say the least. If they can’t rely on their defense, this team is in trouble because they are not good offensively ranking nearly the bottom of college hoops in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and FT%. Ole Miss was a potent offense at home averaging 80 PPG here. We don’t think Tech can keep up and we’ll lay the number with Mississippi. |
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03-20-17 | UCF v. Illinois State -4.5 | Top | 63-62 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois State -4.5 over UCF, Monday at 7:00 PM ET – ISU was easily the 2nd best team in the MVC all season long and not far behind Wichita State. The Redbirds beat the Shockers by 14 on this court this season. Speaking of this court, ISU is 16-0 this season at home and they have won 22 straight games at Redbird Arena. All but 3 of those 22 wins have come by at least 5 points (tonight’s number is -4.5). They whipped the top team in the Big West , Cal Irvine, here last week by 14 points. UCF won their opener at home vs Colorado by 5 points in what was a great draw for the Knights. Colorado was a veteran team that wasn’t thrilled to be in the NIT (their goal from day one was NCAA) and it was a long travel game for them – first time they’ve left the west coast this season. We were on UCF in that game and picked up a win. Now the Knights travel and they were less than impressive on the road this year. They did win 4 AAC road games but those came against the bottom 4 teams in the league and 3 of the 4 wins were by 3 points or less. They are not a great shooting team, especially on the road hitting only 40% of their shots, and they are facing a very good defense. ISU is 18th nationally in defensive efficiency and at home they allow opponents to hit just 37%. UCF is very solid defensively as well, but with ISU at home we think they’ll perform much better than UCF offensively. Lay the small number. |
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03-19-17 | Cincinnati +4 v. UCLA | Top | 67-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +4 over UCLA, Sunday at 9:40 PM ET We like looking at NCAA underdogs that have a big advantage defensively and we definitely have that here. The Bearcats are the 11th most efficient defense in the nation and 8th best when it comes to eFG% defense. UCLA ranks 83rd and 82nd in those 2 categories. Is UCLA better offensively? Sure they are but Cincy is no slouch this year coming in at 33rd nationally in offensive efficiency. We like the fact the Bearcats are simply the tougher team here as well. They’ll most likely win the battle of the boards and make this a grinder, half court type game. We’re not sure this young UCLA team will thrive in a slower paced game and you can bet that’s what Cincy will do here. There really isn’t a team in the Pac 12 that is a tough, slow paced team like the Bearcats so UCLA won’t be acclimated to playing against this style This tough, experienced Cincinnati team (4 Juniors & Seniors in the starting line up) has lots of tourney game time under their belts. They easily handled a solid Kansas State team in round one and we think they give UCLA fits here. The line is also begging you to take UCLA in this game as Vegas set the number very low at -4 and it has dropped to -3.5 since. With 70% of the bets coming in on the Bruins and they line dropping, that tells us most of the casual basketball bettors in Vegas this time of year are on UCLA while the people that bet heavier money and are doing this day in and day out are on the Bearcats. Rumors of Alford heading to Indiana can’t help here either. We think UCLA gets bounced here. |
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03-19-17 | Rhode Island v. Oregon -5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oregon -5 over Rhode Island, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET URI is a solid team that plays very well on defense, however they don’t have enough offense to hang here. The Rams picked up a great draw in their first game playing a Creighton team that in their current state, wasn’t even good enough to be in the tourney. In fact, since the Blue Jays lost point guard Watson mid-season, they were just 7-9. If it weren’t for their early season run with Watson in the line up, the Jays would not have been in the tourney. Much is made of URI’s defense which is very good, however let’s not discount the Ducks defense. They actually have better efficiency numbers than URI (Oregon 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency & URI 26th). While the defenses will be comparable here, the Ducks offense is far superior. Oregon is the 17th most efficient offense in the nation and their eFG% is 55.8% which is good for 15th. Rhode Island’s eFG% ranks 175th and they are a bad 3-point shooting team (239th). They also make just 66% of their free throws. Speaking of FT’s, the Rams also send teams to the foul line A LOT (19th most in the nation) while the Ducks foul very infrequently sending teams to the line 16th least in the country. The Rams have played just 7 teams this year that made the tourney and were just 3-4 in those games. They are also very new to this gig having not been in the Dance since 1999. Oregon, on the other hand, is a veteran team that was one win away from the Final 4 last year. They are experienced in this spot and on a mission. Lay the small number. |
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03-18-17 | Northwestern v. Gonzaga -11 | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -11 over Northwestern, Saturday at 5:15 PM ET The Zags played one of their worst games of the season on Thursday and still beat South Dakota State by 20 points. They shot just 39% (their season average is 51%), 26% from 3 (season average is 38%) and they made just 8 of 18 from the FT line. You can bet after this team has been questioned as a #1 seed, they will play MUCH better on Saturday. Northwestern, on the other hand, has probably already accomplished all they could have hoped for. After making the Dance for the first time ever, they were a bit fortunate on Thursday when Vandy held a 1-point lead late and intentionally fouled NW thinking they were down 1. The Cats now have an NCAA appearance and an NCAA win on a down to the wire game so this one could be tough. We feel this game is very similar to their Big Ten tourney game vs Wisconsin. They came into that game having beaten Maryland to pretty much lock in their first NCAA tourney invite only to turn around and get crushed by the Badgers the following day. NW scored just 48 points in that game. This team can struggle offensively as they are just the 203rd best shooting team in the nation and they’ve been held under 70 points in 12 of their last 14 games. That won’t change here facing Gonzaga who rates as the #1 defensive efficiency team in the nation. As bad as they were offensively on Thursday, the Zags still held South Dakota State, a team that was regularly scoring 80+ points per game, to just 48. They have held 15 of their last 21 opponents to 61 points or less. We wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them hold Northwestern under 60 here. Add that to a motivated offense that will play much better on Saturday and the makings of a blowout are in order. Lastly, this game also falls into a very strong NCAA round 2 system of ours that has covered 13 of the last 16 times it’s applied (81%) and we side with Gonzaga as a Top Game here. |
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03-17-17 | Troy State +20 v. Duke | Top | 65-87 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Troy +20 over Duke, Friday at 7:20 PM T We look for Duke to play a “ho-hum” type game in the opening round vs Troy. The Devils expended a ton of energy last weekend winning the ACC tourney beating Clemson, Louisville, UNC, and Notre Dame in 4 days. They are bound to have an emotional letdown after that one especially against a no name opponent like Troy. The Trojans are a dangerous team that is very athletic. Duke will not “out athlete” Troy in this one. They are a solid offensive team (51% eFG%) with experienced guards that can shoot the 3. The Trojans have 3 players in their starting lineup that hit at least 38% from deep and 4 of their 5 starters are upperclassmen. Defensively they aren’t great but not terrible either. As we stated they will match up athletically with Duke on the defensive end. They played USC to the wire on the road this year and the one NCAA caliber team in the Sun Belt besides Troy was UT Arlington and they split with them this year. Duke is a bit banged up with Jefferson & Allen not at 100%. You can bet Krzyzewski wants to get through this game and move on. They don’t need a blowout here and we’re not sure they could pull that off even if they wanted to. Sun Belt entries have taken much higher seeds to the wire each of the last two NCAA tourneys and we think it may happen again. |
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03-17-17 | UC-Davis v. Kansas -22.5 | Top | 62-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas -22.5 over UC Davis, Friday at 6:50 PM ET UC Davis ranks as THE WORST team in the field coming in at #216 in the Ken Pom rankings. They played ONE, yes ONE, top 100 team all season long and that was a 25 point loss to California who didn’t even make the tourney. Even with the weak schedule (300th SOS), the Aggies were a terrible offensive team this season. For the season UCD ranks 291st in offensive efficiency, 240th in eFG%, and shoot just 66% from the FT line. They have gone 7 consecutive games without reaching 70 points on offense and those were all vs opponents ranked 137th or lower. On top of that, this is a terrible spot for them after playing a tough down to the wire game on Wednesday night in Dayton they now play #1 seed Kansas in Tulsa just 2 days later. KU will be motivated here. They were taken out in the first game of the Big 12 tourney by TCU so they come in wanting to right that wrong. It was really a blessing in disguise as that loss was last Thursday so the Jayhawks have now had more than a week off to rest up, prepare and get ready for the Dance. Soon to be top 10 draft pick and one of the best players in the nation, Josh Jackson, was suspended for KU’s loss to TCU but returns here. Unlike UC Davis, Kansas has played only 3 teams all season long ranked below 200. All three of those opponents were ranked in a similar range to Davis (219th, 224th, and 249th) and KU destroyed all 3 teams 31, 30, and 18 points. KU can name the score here and with them being extra motivated coming in off a loss, we think they don’t let up. |
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03-17-17 | New Mexico State +12.5 v. Baylor | Top | 73-91 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State +12.5 over Baylor, Friday at 12:40 PM ET This total is set fairly at just 134 so a low scoring game is expected. Baylor leans heavily on their defense and they can struggle at times offensively. When they win, they don’t win big very often. In fact, of their last 12 wins, 11 have come by less than 12 points. One thing the Bears rely on is getting extra offensive opportunities by controlling the boards. That shouldn’t happen here as NMSU is a very solid rebounding team (18th nationally in offensive rebounding). The Aggies are a veteran team that is used to being in this environment. They have now been in the Big Dance 5 of the last 6 seasons. They have a solid backcourt (Taylor, Baker & Huggins) that have been logged a lot of minutes and won a lot of games over the last 2 to 3 seasons. This isn’t a flash in the pan type program at New Mexico State. This is the 6th straight year they’ve won at least 23 games. Their conference, the WAC, looks better than most may have anticipated based on early post-season results. Cal State Bakersfield, the team NMSU beat in the WAC final by 10, just went to Cal and won in the NIT. UMKC beat UW Green Bay in the NIT and Utah Valley won @ Georgia Southern in the CBI. Baylor is not a good 3-point shooting team and the NMSU defense ranks 8th nationally at defending the arc so we don’t expect much from deep from the Bears here. They’ll have to grind this one out inside the arc making it tough to pull away against a solid opponent. We think the Aggies match up very well here and we’ll take the points. |
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03-16-17 | VCU v. St. Mary's -4 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON St Mary's -4 over VCU, Thursday at 7:20 PM ET Really like the situation for St Mary’s here. They’ve been off since March 7th after losing to Gonzaga in the WCC final. VCU, on the other hand, just finished 3 games in 3 days on Sunday losing to URI in the A10 Final and now must play out west (game is in Salt Lake City) just a few days later. The Gaels are under rated in our opinion. They are one of the most balanced teams in the nation ranking in the top 26 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They shoot the ball as well as any team in the nation ranking 14th nationally in 3 point FG% and 8th nationally in FG% inside the arc. They have just 4 losses on the season and 3 of them came at the hands of #1 seed Gonzaga. VCU is a team that likes to up tempo if possible so look for STM to frustrate them as they play with the 2nd slowest tempo in the nation. VCU is just an OK shooting team that really struggles from beyond the arc (241st nationally in 3 point %). They won’t get many 2nd chances here as the Gaels are the #1 defensive rebounding team in the nation. We’ll side with the MUCH better shooting team (and better numbers defensively as well for that matter) in a very good scheduling situation. St Marys rolls here. |
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03-14-17 | Indiana v. Georgia Tech +3 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Georgia Tech +3 over Indiana, Tuesday at 9:00 PM on ESPN Can’t imagine IU is all that excited about being here. They had high hopes to start the season and actually topped the likes of UNC and Kansas in the first month of the season. Their high hopes came crashing down with a 7-11 Big Ten record and now a team that had big time NCAA aspirations, not just getting there but making a run, is stuck in the NIT. The Hoosiers were offered to host this game but declined due to renovations going on at Assembly Hall. You can bet Georgia Tech is thrilled to host a blue blood program like Indiana. The Jackets are no slouch as they played in the toughest conference in America and finished 7-2 at home in ACC beating the likes of North Carolina, Notre Dame, Florida State, and Syracuse. They face an IU team that is just 2-8 this year on the road with those wins coming by 4 @ Ohio State and by 3 @ Penn State. The Hoosiers offense can be potent but they are facing the 7th most efficient defense in the nation here. By comparison, the most comparable team in the Big Ten when it comes to defensive efficiency would be Wisconsin who ranks 8th nationally. The Badgers held Indiana to 60, 60, and 68 points in their 3 meetings. We think Tech does the same tonight and they pick up a home win. Not sure Indiana should even be favored in this one. |
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03-14-17 | Ole Miss v. Monmouth -3 | Top | 91-83 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Monmouth -3 over Ole Miss, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET Monmouth was the best team in the MEAC all season long but lost in the conference tourney to drop to the NIT. The Hawks finished the conference with a record of 18-2 which was a full 4 games ahead of 2nd place St Peters. They finished 27-6 and their only non-conference losses came at North Carolina, at Syracuse, and at South Carolina (in OT). They beat two top 100 teams in the non-conference slate topping Memphis on the road and beating NCAA bound Princeton. That win over Princeton on December 20th was actually the last time Princeton lost as the Tigers have won 19 straight since. Monmouth is a team that is very solid on both sides of the ball (89th in offensive efficiency and 85th in defensive efficiency), they don’t turn the ball over, they shoot it very well from 3, and they make FT’s. Ole Miss has to be a bit disappointed they have to travel to a game like this to open the NIT. They were hoping for a home game. Getting to Monmouth (in New Jersey) could pose all kinds of problems for the Rebs as well with the huge winter storm hitting the east coast. The Rebels are not a great shooting team and on the road they really bottomed out hitting just 39% of their shots. This is a HUGE home game for Monmouth as they rarely host a big conference opponent. The last “big name” opponent the Hawks were able to host was back in 2015 when they faced off against in-state big boy Rutgers and lost by 1 point. Monmouth has won 24 of their last 27 home games and they get the win and cover here against what could be a disinterested Ole Miss team. |
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03-14-17 | Pistons v. Cavs -7 | Top | 96-128 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #532 @Cleveland Cavaliers (-7) over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET - At first glance it looks like the Pistons plus the points would be the bet here but closer inspection tells us differently. The Cavs (and LeBron) are clearly a 'play on' team given the circumstances and you have to pick and choose your spots carefully considering they're over-valued by the oddsmakers on most occasions. Tonight the Cavs are on NBA TV which normally brings out the best of ego driven LBJ. Plus, these two teams just met in Detroit with the Pistons winning 106-101 as a +4.5-point underdog. Clearly, based on the line on that game the Cavs should be a much bigger favorite here. Cleveland is returning home after a 3-game road trip which saw them go 1-2 and prior to that they lost at home to the Heat. All those factors will have the Cavs on top of their game tonight against a poor traveling Pistons team (11-21 SU on the road.) Cleveland is 26-7 SU at home and have the 4th best point differential of +8.9PPG at home in the NBA. The last time these two teams met here the Cavs won by 23. Expect another big win tonight given the circumstances. |
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03-11-17 | Colorado State v. Nevada -4.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Nevada -4.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 6 PM ET This is a tough situation for CSU. One of the thinnest teams in the nation playing only 7 players for the most part, the Rams are playing their 3rd game in 3 days. On top of that, they got the late game last night vs San Diego State. Their game didn’t start until 10 PM Pacific time and didn’t get over until after midnight. That means they probably didn’t get back to their hotel and settled down after a big win until 2 AM or later. Now they play today at 3 PM Pacific time making this a very rough spot for them. Nevada won the early game vs Fresno and had time to wind down and settle in much earlier. The Wolfpack have been the best team in the conference pretty much all year. They rank #1 in the MWC in offensive efficiency, #2 in defensive efficiency, #2 in offensive turnover %, #1 in defensive rebounding, #1 defending the 3, and #1 in steals. These two met a week ago in a game that decided the regular season title and Nevada won by 13. Now with CSU in a much more precarious spot today, we look for another easy win by Nevada. |
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03-10-17 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Texas State -4 | Top | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Texas State (-4.5) over UL Monroe, 3PM ET - We love this spot for several reasons including: Texas State is rested while UL Monroe is coming off an OT win over Arkansas State on Wednesday as a sizeable underdog. In fact, ULM was +7 in that game and Texas State in our opinion is slightly better than Arkansas State, and they're laying just -4.5-points in this game. Plus, Texas State was just a -2.5-point favorite at ULM in the final regular season game which means they should be -7 or more here. Texas State beat ULM on March 4th in a meaningless game for them and played their entire roster extended minutes. When we look at TXST's most recent road contests we see they came against 4 of the best teams in the Sun Belt so their most recent road struggles aren't the best barometer considering they are playing the last place team in the conference today. When we look at both teams road records (this game is on a neutral court so essentially a road venue for both) we find ULM had an average negative differential of nearly 12PPG. Texas State was much better away from home with a negative differential of -5PPG. UL Monroe is just 3-16 SU their last 19 games overall and are off a huge upset. Looks like a return to Earth today against a solid Texas State team that has covered 5 straight as a chalk. Lay the points! |
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03-09-17 | Illinois +5 v. Michigan | Top | 55-75 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois +5 over Michigan, Thursday at 12 PM ET Bad situation yesterday for the Wolverines. Their plane ran off the runway and takeoff yesterday afternoon and the team was not able to make it to DC until this morning. After that scare and showing up here a few hours before game time, we have to side with Illinois getting points in this one. The Illini played their best basketball at the end of the year winning 5 of 6 to put @ Rutgers now making this a must win. Illini head coach John Groce stated that his team played the best basketball since he’s been here over their final 6 or 7 games. The defense was key as they held 7 of their final 9 opponents under 70 points. That gives them an edge on that end of the court facing a Michigan team that ranks 11th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and dead last in eFG% defense. Michigan relies heavily on the 3-pointer with 38% of their points in conference play coming from deep (most in the Big Ten). We don’t like backing teams that rely that heavily on the outside shot at a neutral venue they’ve never played at. These two met twice this year with the home team winning each – Illinois with a 17 point win at home and Michigan with a 9 point win at home. We think this one will be nip and tuck the entire way so we take the points with Illinois here. |
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03-05-17 | Minnesota +6.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 49-66 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +6.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 6:00 PM ET Wisky continues to get the respect of oddsmakers despite losing 5 of their last 6. This team is struggling right now. They led Iowa by 9 on Thursday with just over 3:00 remaining in the game and what would normally be an absolute win for Wisky in that spot turned into a 2 point loss. They are a bad FT shooting team (just 5 of 14 vs Iowa) and something is off with this team right now. Can they right the ship on Senior night? Possibly but even if they do get a win, we expect it to be a close game. The Gophs are the hottest team in the Big Ten right now winning 8 straight games including 4 straight on the road. Minny has lost 6 straight to Wisconsin and they have revenge here after losing at home in OT in January 78-76. The Badgers were playing very well at that time and still needed OT to win the game. That isn’t the case anymore. The Gophs have covered 7 of their last 8 while the Badgers have lost 7 of 8 to the number. Can Wisconsin keep up here? Minnesota’s offense is averaging 83 PPG over their last 5 while UW is putting up just 66 PPG. Wisconsin may win this, although we’re not so sure, but even if they do we expect it to go to the wire. Take the points. |
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03-05-17 | Celtics -6 v. Suns | Top | 106-109 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #827 Boston Celtics (-6.5) @ Phoenix Suns, 5PM ET - We're going to lay the points with Boston on the road over Phoenix. The Suns have won two straight home games but in both cases (OKC and Charlotte) they caught their opponents in bad scheduling situation. Today they get a Boston team that is the second best team in the East and playing well and has the 5th best road differential in the NBA at +1.9PPG (only 5 teams have a positive road DIFF on the road). On the flip side the Suns are off a home win and have been horrible in this situation with a 4-16 SU record off a win, 1-9 SU at home. Phoenix also has the 4th worst home differential in the NBA at minus -2.3PPG. Boston has covered 14 of their last 20 on the road off a win and should get a double digit win here. |
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03-05-17 | Purdue v. Northwestern +3.5 | Top | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Northwestern +3.5 over Purdue, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET The Boilers have absolutely nothing to play for here. They clinched the outright Big Ten title on Thursday night when Wisconsin lost at home to Iowa. Most of the PU players were gathered together watching Iowa hit a 3 pointer with 9 seconds left to beat the Badgers by 2. Word is the room erupted as the Boilermakers accomplished their goal of winning the Big Ten. Now traveling to NW, a team they beat by 20+ earlier this year, might be a tough spot for this Purdue team to bring their best. Not to mention PU is a MUCH better team at home than they are on the road. They are just 5-4 this year in true road games with 4 of those wins coming by margins of 1, 1, 4 and 5 points. This is Northwestern’s final home game and while their win earlier this week vs Michigan may have pushed them into the Big Dance for the first time ever, it’s not a 100% lock quite yet. A win here over Purdue would guarantee an NCAA tourney bid. The Cats will also have some extra motivation here after playing one of their worst games of the year @ Purdue losing 80-59. NW shot just 35% in that game and made only 2 of their 14 three point attempts. The Boilers made 52% from beyond the arc in that win. NW also played that game without one of their top players Lindsay who has since returned. We like NW to win this game outright at home on Sunday. |
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03-04-17 | Notre Dame +8 v. Louisville | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame +8 over Louisville, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET on CBS Louisville went through a stretch mid-season where they were throttling teams. That red hot stretch ended in early February and now this team simply isn’t playing all that well. They are 4-3 their last 7 games and 3 of their 4 wins have come by 5 points or fewer. This Cardinal team needs to create turnovers for their offense to flow as they are simply not a great shooting team ranking 138th in eFG%. The Irish are not a great match up for this team. That’s because they don’t turn the ball over. ND gives the ball away just 14% of the time which is the 3rd best mark in the nation. They are always a dangerous underdog because they shoot the ball so well (36th nationally in eFG%) and they make their FT’s (81% for #1 in the nation). Notre Dame hit a slow streak in late January but have since ripped off 6 consecutive wins. They beat Louisville 77-70 earlier this year and had only 12 turnovers in the game. Again, that’s the recipe for beating U of L and the Irish do it as well as anyone. The Irish have lost only 2 games this year by more than 8 points (where this spread currently stands) and even if they lose here, we expect a tight game throughout. They’ve also proven they can get it done on the road with a 5-2 SU record in true road games. With Louisville struggling a bit, we take ND to cover this spread and feel they have a solid shot at the upset. |