#852 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -12 over TCU, Sunday at 5 PM ET - The Bears are 11-5 on the season but they are much better than their record in our opinion. They’ve played the 3rd most difficult slate in CBB thus far and their losses have come all away from home vs Gonzaga, UConn, Tennessee, Iowa State, and Arizona. 4 of those opponents sit in KenPom’s top 16 and the only team that does not, UConn, ranks 27th. The Bears are back home where they are undefeated and in big time need of a win coming off a loss @ Arizona. They’ve taken care of business at home in a big way vs teams that are higher rated than this TCU team. Baylor beat Cincinnati here by 20, Utah by 25 (the Utes just beat TCU on the road on Wednesday night) and all of their 8 home wins have come by at least 20 points. Their average home score this season is 92-56! They haven’t allowed a single team to reach 70 points at home this season. After 5 Big 12 games the Horned Frogs rank 13th in offensive eFG% and 15th in defensive eFG% and they are only shooting 59% from the FT line (Just 62% for the entire season). They are averaging just 63 PPG on the road (only 70 PPG for the full season) and facing a Baylor team that lights it up on their home court shooting 52% overall and 41% from deep. We don’t see TCU being able to keep up offensively in this game so we’ll lay the lumber.

#832 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -9.5 over Nebraska, Sunday at 12 PM ET - The Huskers are in a slump right now losing 3 straight games and their defense during that stretch has been atrocious. They have allowed 97, 104, and 85 points their last 3 games vs Iowa, Purdue, and Rutgers. They’ve been a very poor road team over the years (including this season) but the red flag for this team was losing at home vs Rutgers earlier this week. That broke a 20 game home winning streak vs a Rutgers team that had lost 4 of their previous 6 games and were winless in true road games prior to topping the Huskers. On the road Nebraska has played 3 games in league play and lost by 37, 36, and 10 points and they are just 5-18 SU in Big 10 road games over the last 2+ seasons. This season they average 12 PPG fewer on the road and they shoot 5% lower from 3 point land (just 30% in road games). Maryland is undefeated at home in conference play and their lone home loss was by 4 points vs Marquette back in mid November. The Terps have much better efficiency numbers in conference play as they rank in the top 8 both offensively and defensively while Nebraska ranks 15th and 16th in Big 10 play in those metrics. The Huskers are 1-5 SU @ Maryland and their last 2 losses have come by 22 and 19 points. Win and cover here for the Terps.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -11 at Portland Trailblazers – 10 pm et - We typically don’t like laying this many points in the NBA, especially with road favorites, but we will make an exception here. Houston is one of the better teams in the NBA at 27-13 SU with the 5th best overall Net Rating of +6.2. Portland is one of the worst teams in the league at 13-27 and the 29th or second to last Net Rating of minus -8.8. Houston had won 5 in a row, including a 20-point win at Denver and a 4-point win in Memphis prior to a loss most recently at Sacramento. In that stretch of games, they had a 23-point win in Washington against a Wizards team that rates similar to this Blazers team. Portland has really fallen hard in recent games with 4 straight losses, the last three have come by an average of 26ppg. Houston has a 6-1 SU record in their last seven road games with a Net Rating of +10.7. On the season the Rockets are 12-6-1 ATS on the road, 8-4 ATS as a road favorite. Portland beat this Rockets team the last time they met so we know Houston will not overlook them here. Lay the points with the Rockets.

#818 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco -3 over Oregon State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Great spot to fade Oregon State here after they pulled a huge home upset in OT over Gonzaga just 48 hours ago. The Beavers shot nearly 60% from the field in that game (Zags shot 42%) yet the game still went to OT. Now they have a quick turnaround on the road where they are 1-3 SU in true road games this season and 3-34 SU their last 37! They face a San Francisco team that has won 27 of their last 28 home games (8-0 this year) and we’re getting a cheap number here with the Dons. This is Oregon State’s first trip ever to play @ San Francisco which makes it a tough spot as well. The Beavers overall offensive numbers have been very good as they average 1.15 PPP but in their 4 true road games + 3 neutral site games, they’ve been held to 1.03 PPP or lower in 5 of those games. We think they’ll struggle offensive on the road again vs a San Fran defense that allows opponents to shoot just 40% overall and 27% from deep at home while holding opponents to 64 PPG. The Dons average 81 PPG at home this season and we think OSU struggles to keep up here. Lay the small number with San Francisco at home.

#808 ASA PLAY ON Texas A&M -11 over LSU, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - Great spot for A&M at home here as they are coming off back to back losses vs Alabama and Kentucky.  The Aggies took Bama to the wire at home before losing 94-88 and they lost @ KY on Wednesday night.  A&M played both of those games without leading scorer and future NBA guard Wade Taylor (16 PPG and 5 APG).  Taylor was not listed on the injury report on Friday evening so we’d have to assume he’s going to be back in the lineup on Saturday which is a huge boost to this team.  With Taylor in the lineup the Aggies are 12-2 including wins over Texas, Purdue, Ohio State, and Texas Tech, all top 30 teams.  They are 8-1 at home with their only loss coming vs Alabama (with Taylor out) and all of their 8 wins have come by double digits.  A&M has a 13-4 overall record (2 losses without Taylor) and they’ve faced the 10th most difficult schedule in the country this season.  LSU, on the other hand, has faced the 164th most difficult schedule and they have a worse record at 12-5.  The Tigers have played 4 true road games, lost 3 of those games (all by double digits) and their only road win was @ Kansas State (7-9 record) who is the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 12.  LSU has faced 6 teams currently in KenPom’s top 60 and they’ve lost 5 of those games, all by at least 8 points.  Their lone win in that category was at home vs Arkansas on Tuesday night (78-74 final score) and the Razors are in a freefall right now as they’ve lost 4 straight and sit in last place in the SEC.  Now they travel to A&M who is the 2nd highest rated team the Tigers have faced this season (#19 per KenPom).  The Aggies have far better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court (including #12 nationally in defensive efficiency) and they are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation.  That’ll be a huge problem for LSU that ranks outside the top 300 in defensive rebounding.  The Tigers also turn the ball over 19% of the time (273rd nationally) so between that and A&M’s offensive rebounding prowess, the Aggies should get plenty of extra possessions tonight.  A&M is 2-2 in SEC play and they have road games @ Ole Miss and @ Texas their next 2 tilts making this a must win.  We look for the Aggies to win this one going away.

#662 ASA PLAY ON Duquesne +2 over St Bonaventure, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Duquesne is very undervalued right now due to their overall record which is 8-9.  However, 8 of their 9 losses came by December 11th or earlier and this team is now on a 6-1 run with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Davidson by 6.  The Dukes lost their first 6 games of the season as they were adjusting to a new head coach and had some guys miss games early.  Since December 11th, Duquesne ranks as the top team in the Atlantic 10 Conference and 31st overall nationally per Bart Torvik Analytics.  During that stretch they rank 39th nationally in offensive efficiency and 50th in defensive efficiency.  Their opponent tonight St Bonnie ranks as the 4th best team in the A10 during that stretch yet they are laying points on the road in this game because their record is much better overall.  The Bonnies have played a very easy schedule to date (256th SOS) and they only have 3 losses on the season, however 2 of those losses have come in the last 11 days.  They are 1-2 their last 3 games and their win came at home vs Richmond (ranked 215th) and the Spiders played that game without their leading scorer.  The Dukes have the rest advantage as well as they had a week off prior to their win on Wednesday @ George Washington who came into that home game with a record of 13-3.  St Bonnies, on the other hand, is playing their 4th game in 11 days. Two teams heading in opposite directions and we love the value with Duquesne as a home dog here.  Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +11.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - We have been on a few bigger underdogs in recent weeks, and they’ve worked out well for us and today we like another one in Toronto. Toronto is certainly suffering through a tough season with just 10 wins, and a big reason why has been injuries. This team is not deep and can’t sustain positive results when just one starter goes down. They are in solid shape right now and it’s shown in the last two games, both wins against the Warriors and Celtics. In fact, prior to the two W’s they had played well on the road at Detroit, Cleveland and New York with only one of those losses coming by more than this spread (NY -14). The Bucks are 5-1 SU their last six games but still not a team I trust laying double digits with. Milwaukee is 13-7 SU, 8-11-1 ATS at home with an average plus/minus of +6.0ppg. While it’s not great, the Raptors average loss margin is -10.9ppg but that number is skewed by two massive losses this season at Boston by 54 and at Memphis by 29. If you exclude the two blowouts, only six of the Raptors 18 road losses have come by more than this spread. Milwaukee has a pair of solid home wins in their two most recent games and have a bigger game on deck against Philly so it’s only natural that overlook this Toronto team that they have beaten twice this season already. At this number, we like the points with the Raptors.

#886 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -7 over Indiana, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Buckeyes showed some serious fight on Tuesday night getting down by 17 points at half @ Wisconsin and coming back in the 2nd half to only lose by 2. That’s back to back 2 point losses for OSU (Wisconsin & Oregon) and we like them to bounce back with a big effort at home tonight. They are facing an Indiana team that has played only 2 true road games this season, both in conference play, and they lost those games by 25 @ Iowa and by 17 @ Nebraska. IU is just 3-8 SU on the road in Big 10 play since the start of last season and offensively they scored just 62 and 68 points in their 2 road games this season. The Hoosiers are coming off an embarrassing 94-69 loss at HOME on Tuesday vs Illinois in a game they were dominated from start to finish. They are struggling on offense (60 and 69 points their last 2 games) with leading scorer Reneau about to miss his 5th straight game. We think they’ll struggle on that end of the court again tonight vs a OSU defense that ranks in the top 30 on both efficiency and eFG% allowed. At home the Buckeyes are limiting opponents to just 66 PPG and they just held a potent Wisconsin offense (13th nationally in efficiency) to 70 points on the road which is 14 points below their season average. OSU is better on both ends of the court (offensive and defensive efficiency) and if they can get their offense going at home, where they average 86 PPG, Indiana will be in trouble in our opinion. Lay it with Ohio State.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -3.5 vs. Houston Rockets – 10 pm - This bet sets up nicely with the Rockets coming off a very big win in Denver last night. That means the Rockets are playing the second night of a back to back (off altitude) and their 3rd game in four days. Sacramento is back home after a very successful road trip with wins at Golden State, Boston and Chicago. They clearly ran out of steam against the Bucks in Milwaukee most recently and are now coming off a loss back at home. Sacramento is 7th in Offensive Net rating this season and 14th defensively. They have a Net rating of +2.6 on the season. But in their last 8 games since firing Mike Brown they have the 4th best Net rating in the NBA at +8.0, 6th both offensively and defensively. The Rockets are 26-12 SU on the season and one of the bigger surprises in the West this season. They rank 6th in overall Net rating and have won 5 in a row. They are coming off 3 big games in a row though and will have a tough time in this scheduling situation. The Kings beat this Rockets team in early December 120-111, before they were playing at this level.

#836 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +1.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Northwestern lost their first home game of the season on Sunday vs a red hot Michigan State team and we expect them to bounce back with a win in this game. MSU shot 50% overall and from 3 point land in that 10 point win while the Cats shot just 36% and only 20% from deep. In that game, NW was a 2-point dog and now we’re getting them in the same range vs a Maryland team that simply isn’t as good as MSU right now and they’ve been poor on the road this season. That loss dropped the Wildcats to 8-1 at home this season and let’s not forget this team beat Illinois here earlier this season. The Terps have played only 3 true road games this season and lost all 3 @ Purdue, @ Washington, and @ Oregon. They’ve played one of the easier strength of schedules in the Big 10 (214th SOS) and vs top 100 teams Maryland has a 3-4 SU record. Northwestern has won 2 of the last 3 at home vs Maryland and the 1 they lost here was in OT. Since the start of last season, NW has been a home dog 5 times and covered 4 of those games. Last year they were favored by 4.5 at home vs Maryland and now a dog so we like the value here. Take the Cats to win outright at home tonight

#834 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska -8.5 over Rutgers, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Nebraska’s home vs road dichotomy is as drastic as any team in the nation.  They are 8-0 at home this year and 2-3 on the road (2-1 in neutral site games).  At home the Huskers average 83 PPG (71 PPG on the road), they shoot almost 48% at home (45% on the road), and 35% from 3 at home (30% on the road).  The Huskers have now won 20 consecutive home games dating back to last season while Rutgers is 0-3 SU on the road this year and they only win 3 of their last 17 road games.  The Knights are a young team with 4 freshmen in the starting line up so it’s not surprising they’ve struggled away from home.  Four of their last five losses have come by double digits and they are catching Nebraska in a tough spot with the Huskers coming off 2 straight road losses @ Iowa in OT and @ Purdue.  The Huskers are much better defensively (top 25 in defensive efficiency) and they are also better offensively averaging 1.12 PPP compared to 1.10 for Rutgers.  The Scarlet Knights have failed to cover their last 7 games on the road and we like Nebraska to win this one by double digits.  Lay it with the Huskers.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -5 at Utah Jazz,  9 PM ET - When I casually glanced through the lines this number stood out immediately and I couldn’t understand why the Hornets were laying this number on the road. A closer look revealed the injury depleted Jazz are down another starter tonight and their best player Markkanen. That means Utah is down 4 of 5 starters tonight against this Hornets team. Charlotte is healthy for the most part and has the most important pieces available tonight in Ball, Miller and Bridges. The Hornets played well last time out in a close loss in Phoenix. They led going into the 4th quarter before scoring just 15 points in the final stanza. Prior to that game they had beaten the Suns at home, played close at Cleveland and Detroit. Utah is coming off a win over the depleted Nets most recently 112-11 as a -3.5 point home favorite. Prior to that win they had lost 3 in a row. If you examine the season statistics for both teams you will find these teams have similar overall ratings/statistics, but those numbers are based on healthy rosters. Utah has the edge offensively; the Hornets have the advantage defensively. Charlotte has just 2 road wins this season, but the Jazz have just 3 home wins. Given the health of both teams this seems like an easy call with the Hornets minus the points.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 8 PM ET - Memphis is 25-15 SU on the season and healthy again with the return of Ja Morant and rookie Zach Edey. The Grizzlies are coming off a loss in their most recent game on Monday in Houston 118-120 and we like them to bounce back here. Memphis is 11-3 SU when coming off a loss with an average margin of victory in those games of +11.1ppg. San Antonio had lost 3 in a row prior to their last game which was a win against the Lakers in Los Angeles. The Spurs are 12-8 SU at home with a marginal +/- of +2.6ppg. When coming off a win the Spurs are 8-10 SU with a negative differential of minus -0.3ppg. San Antonio is a great story this season with a 19-19 SU record but when it comes time to step up against the better teams in the NBA they’ve struggled with a 4-9 SU record against top 10 teams. The Spurs defense can match the Grizzlies offense in several categories but the big advantage the Grizz have is with their defensive edge against the Spurs offense. San Antonio is 20th in team FG% at 45.5% and the Grizzlies rank 3rd defensively in FG% allowed. The Spurs are also 25th in 3PT% and will have a tough time making shots against a Memphis D that is 5th in 3PT% allowed. Memphis also has the 2nd best offensive rebound percentage compared to the Spurs who rank 15th. We like Memphis here to get a solid road win.

#718 ASA PLAY ON Furman -2.5 over East Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a great bounce back spot for Furman at home after they lost by 19 points here on Monday night vs Wofford as a 7-point favorite. It was an embarrassing effort and their first home loss of the season (14-3 record overall). Wofford shot over 40% from deep in that game (13 of 32) while Furman made only 23% of their triples. The Paladins were also destroyed on the boards as Wofford had 20 offensive rebounds in the game gathering a ridiculous 54% of their misses. Veteran head coach Bob Richey (169-73 record at Furman) was visibly disappointed in his press conference and mentioned they came out on their heels and got physically bullied. You can expect them to come out aggressive right out of the gate in this one. Furman’s 3 point defense, which was torched on Monday, has been really solid this season allowing opponents to shoot just 30% from deep (56th nationally) so we look for a much better showing tonight. ETSU is just 2-6 SU on the road this year with their wins coming by 2 points @ Mercer and @ Charlotte, both ranked outside the top 230 per KenPom. Going back further the Buccaneers have won only 7 of their last 29 road games. ETSU has a 10-7 SU record this year despite playing the 327th most difficult schedule so far. Furman has played the much tougher slate to date and the Paladins have better offensive FG% and defensive FG% numbers despite that. We’re also getting some value here because of Furman’s poor performance on Monday as they were favored by 7 in that game vs Wofford who rates 15 spots higher (per KenPom) than ETSU. The Paladins have won 6 straight at home vs the Buccaneers and 9 of the last 10. They’ve also won 32 of their last games overall and they’ve only lost consecutive home games ONCE since the start of the 2015 season. We’ll call for a bounce back effort here with Furman getting the cover.

#652 ASA PLAY ON Florida -10 over Missouri, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Missouri has a very good 13-3 record but that’s a bit misleading as they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country (300th SOS) which is by far the lowest in the SEC. The Tigers have faced only 3 top 50 teams this season (per KenPom) and lost all 3. The average rating of the 13 teams they’ve beaten this season is 224th. They’ve also played only 2 true road games this season and lost both along with their only neutral site game. All 13 of their wins have come at home. Tonight they face one of the best teams in the country (Gators #6 per KenPom) and they’ve been rolling over teams at home. Florida’s only loss of the season came by 6 points @ Kentucky and they’ve won all of their 7 homes games by at least 18 points. That includes destroying #1 at the time Tennessee by 30 points (we were on Florida in that one) one week ago tonight. The Gators have been great on both ends of the floor ranking in the top 15 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency (only 5 teams can say that). They average 86 PPG (7th nationally) and they are facing a Mizzou defense that barely ranks inside the top 100 in FG% allowed and well outside the top 200 in 3 point FG% allowed. Florida should dominate the glass for extra opportunities as they pull down over 41% of their misses (3rd best offensive rebounding team in the country, while Missouri struggles on the defensive glass (258th in defensive rebounding). The Tigers have gotten a kind whistle from the refs so far (with 13 home games) which has led to 24% of their points coming from the FT line (14th the most in the country). They won’t get that whistle on the road tonight and we don’t think they can keep up in this one. Another home blowout for Florida.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +8.5 at NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is going to be a tough spot for the Knicks who just played a huge game against the Bucks yesterday AND were coming off a big game against the Thunder 2 nights prior. So not only are the Knicks coming off two big named opponents they are also playing without rest and the 3rd game in four nights. New York is 1-3 ATS when playing without rest this season, 5-12 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Detroit is playing extremely well right now with an 8-2 SU record their last ten games and they have the 8th best Net differential rating of +4.6 in the league over that course of games. In comparison, the Knicks have a Net differential rating of +4.8 over that same 10-game stretch. New York is 13-6 SU at home this season with one of the better average scoring margin at +9.6ppg, but the Pistons are 10-10 SU away with a +/- of 0.0 which is 13th. The Knicks typically enjoy a big rebounding advantage over their opponents but that won’t be the case here with Detroit ranking 5th in Total Rebound %, tied with the Knicks. This is a great scheduling situation to back the Pistons plus the points in this one.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +9.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers – 6 pm ET - We know it’s tough to bet against the Cavaliers right now who are on a 12-game winning streak, but the oddsmakers have been forced to adjust and the value now lies with the underdog Pacers. If we look at each teams last 7 games alone we find the Cavs are 7-0 SU with an average +/- of +11.3ppg. Indiana in that same time frame is 6-1 SU with a +/- of +10.6ppg. They have the exact same Net Rating in that 7-game stretch of +10.6. Indiana had a slow start to the season and played well below expectations after last season’s success but they’ve clearly turned the corner as they’ve gotten healthy. The Cavs have been putting up huge numbers but that is also a strength of this Pacers team that is more than capable of playing fast and scoring. Indiana is 4th in team FG%, 7th in made FG’s and 8th in 3PT%. Our point is this team is more than capable of trading points with Cleveland. Grab the points with the Pacers.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +4 vs. Miami Heat, 10 PM ET - I may regret backing the Blazers here as I typically don’t like betting teams in their first home game off an extended road trip but there are enough other positives to back Portland here. Let’s face it, not all NBA players are 100% motivated on a nightly basis, which can make games difficult to predict. I’m betting the Blazers will be ready for this Heat team after losing to them by 60-points in late March a year ago. That is not a typo…60-point beat down by the Heat in Miami. The Heat are without suspended Jimmy Butler and 2-3 SU their last five games. They are coming off a pair of road wins against the Warriors and Jazz, but the Heat have struggled as a road favorite this season going 1-6 ATS. On that note, the Blazers have made backers money as a home underdog with a 9-5 ATS record. Miami isn’t a great shooting team so we see them exploiting a bad Blazer FG% defense to win this game by margin. Lastly, there was an immediate influx of money on the Heat, yet the line didn’t move as it normally would have in the Miami’s favor. We will make a light bet on the Blazers and the points tonight.

#830 ASA PLAY ON UC San Diego -5.5 over Cal Irvine, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Love this spot for a very good UC San Diego team. They are 14-2 on the season and 9 of their 16 games have been played away from home. Both of their losses came in November and they have since won 12 straight games. Cal Irvine is also 14-2 and both of their losses came on the road. Both of these teams are tied atop the Big West with 4-0 conference records. The situation, however heavily favors UC San Diego as UCI will be playing their 5th game in 13 days with 4 of those coming on the road. And going back further, the Anteaters have now played 7 of their last 8 games away from home dating back to December 14th. UCSD, on the other hand, is playing just their 3rd game tonight since December 28th and they’ve been at home for the last week. They just rolled Cal Poly by 27 points at home on Thursday night and they were able to spread out their minutes in the blowout. UCI just played on Thursday night @ Cal State Northridge and picked up a win and now they are playing on the road again just 48 hours later. In their win vs CSUN the Anteaters shot well above their season average from 3 point land (33%) making 44% from deep (CSUN shot 14% from beyond the arc) and made 26 FT’s (CSUN made 17) and that was the difference in the game. We don’t see that happening tonight as UCI faces the highest rated opponent (per KenPom) they’ve seen this season. Last season when these 2 faced off in San Diego, the Tritons were rated 70 spots lower than they are this season (130th last year / 60th this year) and they still topped UCI in that game. UCSD is better across the board offensive (better efficiency, FG%, and 3 point FG%) and they’ve been even more impressive at home averaging 89 PPG. San Diego should also have a big advantage in turnover margin in this game which will lead to extra possessions. The Tritons rank 4th nationally in defensive turnover rate (25%) while UCI turns the ball over a lot (281st in offensive turnover rate). On the other end, UCSD only turns the ball over 14% of the time on offense which is the 25th best mark in the nation. We like UC San Diego to get the win and cover here vs what should be a road weary UC Irvine team.

#776 ASA PLAY ON Santa Clara -3 over San Francisco, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Quick revenger here for Santa Clara who just lost @ San Francisco in OT on December 30th. San Fran’s largest lead in that game was 5 points while Santa Clara led by double digits in the first half and they led by 4 with just 45 seconds remaining. That was the Broncos only loss in their last 9 games and they’ve been waiting for this rematch. The Dons have been very solid this season, however on the road they are just 1-2 on the year with their only win coming at Pacific (ranked 282nd per KenPom). In those 3 true road games, SF has shot just 42% while allowing their opponents to hit 47% of their shots. They’ve also allowed 79 PPG in those games which is 12 points above what they allow on the season. Santa Clara is outscoring their opponents by +12 PPG at home and they are averaging 86 PPG here so we expect some solid offensive success for the host. The Broncos beat a very good Oregon State team here at home on Thursday night and they spread their minutes out very nicely with 9 players 10+ minutes. They also have the rest advantage having played just 3 games since playing @ San Francisco including a week off prior to beating Oregon State on Thursday. The Dons have played 4 games since beat Santa Clara and this will be their 5th game in 13 days. The Broncos won this game at home by 7 points last year as a 2.5 point dog and we look for another home win on Saturday. Lay it with Santa Clara.

ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +11.5 at Phoenix Suns – 5pm ET - The Suns are certainly a marquee team in the NBA with star power in Durant, Booker and even Beal to a lesser extent. They continue to be priced like a top 10 team when in reality they haven’t played to that level with a 17-19 SU record. The Suns have been favored by -8 or more points four times this season and they’ve failed to cover every one of those games. It’s been nearly a full month since they’ve been installed as a double-digit chalk. The Suns are 5-11 ATS their last sixteen games overall. Utah has been hit hard by injuries with three starters out, but they’ve actually played better statistically in their last five games. On the season the Jazz have a negative overall Efficiency Differential of -8.8, but in their last five games they are plus +0.2. In fact, the Jazz rate higher in Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency ratings in their last five games compared to the Suns last five games. Not one of the Suns last seven wins come by more than 11-points and that includes a game in Utah on December 13th which they won by 8-points. Utah is just 2-7 SU their last nine games but only 1 of those seven losses came by more than this spread tonight. It’s not pretty, but back the dog in this one.

#678 ASA PLAY ON Illinois Chicago +2 over Bradley, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Bradley is coming off a 7 point home loss vs Drake on Wednesday and the Braves have been trending down the last few weeks. Prior to that loss, Bradley had lost 3 straight ATS (now 4 straight) struggling with Missouri State at home and needed OT to beat Valpo and Indiana State prior to that. The Braves started the season red hot from beyond the arc but that was bound to regress. They are still ranked #2 nationally in 3 point FG% (41%) but over their last 4 games they’ve hit 25%, 35%, 32%, and 28% from deep, all well below their season average. UIC has been trending up winning 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss during that run coming @ Belmont. The same teams that Bradley recently struggled with (Drake & Missouri State), UIC beat Drake by 4 and Mizzou State by 17 over the last few weeks. Despite playing very well as of late, the Flames continue to get no respect from the oddmakers who have tabbed them as underdogs in 6 straight games and they’ve covered all 6 winning 5 of those games outright. The Flames are a very good shooting team ranking in the top 60 nationally in both FG% and 3 point FG% and they are 5-1 at home this season. We’ve been looking for a spot to fade this flailing Bradley team and this is it. We look for Illinois Chicago to win this game at home.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +10.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Kings were clearly underachieving to start the season, and it looks to us like the players had tuned head coach Mike Brown out. With Brown fired, the Kings have won 5 straight games, and all of those wins came against potential playoff teams. It’s a smaller sample size, but when we examine the last five games of each team, we find the Celtics have the best overall Net Rating in the NBA at +17.1, but the Kings are 3rd at +11.1. If this is now the same version of the Kings that we saw a year ago we like their chances here as double-digit underdog. Last year, the Kings had the 9th best average scoring differential on the road of +1.0ppg. Last season the Kings were 14-10 ATS as a road dog and 16-14 ATS against the East. Boston isn’t in the best situation here having just played 4 road games against four of the best teams in the league and their last game was at altitude in Denver on Tuesday night. This line is based on the Kings season lo statistics but it’s obvious they needed a new voice in the locker room and have turned things around. Grab the points with the Kings.

#820 ASA PLAY ON Montana State Money Line -110 over Northern Colorado, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Montana State has a 5-10 record to date but they’ve played a very tough schedule with 10 road games, including losses @ Wisconsin, @ Northwestern, @ TCU, and @ USC. They are finally back at home after a month plus on the road (last home game was Dec 7th) and they’ve lost 5 straight games (all on the road). Hungry for a win and back at home with a light spread, we really like this spot for an undervalued Montana State team. Northern Colorado has a 10-5 record, however they’ve played a much easier slate and they’ve played only 1 road game in the last month which was a win @ Denver that ranks 327th per KenPom. The Bears are 2-4 SU on the road this season where their defense has been shaky allowing 81 PPG on over 48% shooting by their opponents. Not only have they been poor on the road defensively, for the season the Bears rank 330th in eFG% allowed, 228th in 3 point FG% allowed and 323rd in 2 point FG% allowed. Montana State has a huge edge defensively in this game ranking 101st in eFG% allowed and 9th nationally defending the arc despite playing a tough schedule. The Bobcats have been very unlucky as well in regards to FT “defense” where their opponents have made 80.5% from the stripe which is the highest percentage in the nation. Montana State will also have revenge on their minds here after losing a tight 3 point game @ Northern Colorado last season blowing a 10 point lead with less than 8 minutes to go. Prior to last year’s loss, Montana State had won 8 of the previous 9 in this series and they are 28-8 SU at home all time vs Northern Colorado. Small spread here and we grab the home team.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -5.5 vs Chicago Bulls, 7 PM ET - This line is a little light given what these teams have been favored by or an underdog to similar opponents. Not only that, but the last time these two teams squared off was in Chicago with the Pacers laying -3.5-points, which should have them favored by at least -8.5-points at home. Chicago was just +5.5-points at home against the Knicks and +3 at home vs. the Spurs. Indiana has won 3 straight games and 4 of their last five as they continue to get healthy. In their most recent home game, they were favored by -2.5-points against the Suns and won by 16-points. The Bulls are coming off a miraculous comeback win against the Spurs after trailing by 17-points in the 4th quarter. Going back to the start of last season the Pacers are 41-23 SU at home with an average +/- of plus +6.1ppg. Indiana has a +4.1 Net Rating over their last ten games, the Bulls are minus -2.6 in NR in their last 10. More than anything we like the value in the short number and will back Indiana in this one.

#682 ASA PLAY ON George Mason -11 over Richmond, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for the Richmond Spiders.  They are a very poor shooting team ranking outside the top 330 in FG%, FG made per game, and 3 point FG%.  They will struggle big time offensively in this game facing a high level George Masion defense that ranks 3rd nationally allowing opponents to make only 35% of their shots and 12th nationally giving up just 61 PPG.  The Patriots have held over half their opponents (8) to less than 60 points this season and only 1 team has topped 70 points in regulation vs this defense and that was Marquette.  They held a great Duke offense to 68 points which is impressive as the Blue Devils have been held to less than 70 points just twice all season.  George Mason will also come into this home game with a chip on their shoulder after losing their most recent game @ Rhode Island as a favorite after winning 8 of their previous 9 games (only loss @ Duke during that stretch).  On the other side, Richmond will be playing their 2nd straight road game after upsetting UMass on the road as a dog over the weekend.  Nice set up with the host off a loss as a favorite vs the road team off a win as a dog.  That was the Spiders first road win this season (1-4 SU in true road games) and as poor as they’ve been shooting the ball this year, on the road they’ve been abysmal making 38% of their shots and 25% of their triples.  We highly doubt Richmond gets out of the 50’s in this game (they are averaging 53 PPG their last 3 trips to GMU – all losses) while George Mason is averaging 80 PPG at home this season.  Lay it.

#704 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas -3.5 over Ole Miss, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Arkansas is back home off an embarrassing performance at #1 Tennessee on Saturday. They lost that game 76-52 and they were dominated on the boards which led to head coach John Calipari calling out his team’s effort. After that loss, Calipari has individual meetings with each of his players so we expect a huge effort at home to avoid dropping to 0-2 in the SEC. The Razors are undefeated at home this season while Ole Miss has played only 2 true road games all season. The Rebels won @ Louisville in early December when the Cards were decimated by injuries and they lost @ Memphis by 17 10 days ago. Arky has one of the best shooting teams in the country ranking 17th in eFG% and inside the arc they make 60% of their shots which is 7th in the country. They are facing an Ole Miss defense that ranks outside the top 100 defending the 2 point shot. While Arkansas was dominated on the boards vs Tennessee, they should hold their own here vs a Rebel team that isn’t great on the boards (outside the top 170 in offensive and defensive rebounding). The Razorbacks have won 5 straight at home vs Mississippi and we’re getting an unranked home team favored over ranked road team which has been a profitable situation over the years. Lay it with Arkansas.

#632 ASA PLAY ON Iowa -3.5 over Nebraska, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Iowa is off their worst loss since February of 2020 losing @ Wisconsin on Friday 116-85. That dropped the Hawkeyes to 1-2 in Big 10 play and this becomes a must win with 2 of their last 3 on the road. Iowa’s offense played quite well in that loss shooting 48% and averaging 1.12 PPP. Not surprising as they rank in the top 10 nationally in FG%, 2 point FG% and PPG on offense. They are also 23rd in the country in offensive efficiency. The defense obviously let them down on Friday night. Wisconsin shot ridiculously well making 65% of their shots overall, 68% from 3 point land (21 of 31) and 88% from the FT line. While Iowa didn’t play well defensively, it was just one of those nights for the Badgers when everything went in. Expect a concerted effort on the defensive end of the court tonight for the Hawks and if their offense continues to play well, this should be a win. Nebraska is coming off a very important home win over UCLA on Saturday which was their 20th straight home win, however the Huskers are simply a different team away from home. They’ve played one Big 10 road game this season and lost by 27 points @ Michigan State and the Huskers have won only 5 of their last 21 conference road games. Iowa has just 1 home loss this season and that was vs #3 Iowa State in a game the Hawkeyes never trailed until 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. At home this season Iowa has shot 54% and 41% from deep. They are facing a Nebraska defense that has allowed opponents to score almost 40% of their points from beyond the arc, 12th most in the country. Not a great match up for this Iowa offense at home. The Hawks have an extra day off as well playing on Friday while Nebraska played on Saturday. Carver Hawkeye Arena has been a house of horrors for the Huskers losing 9 of their last 10 there. Huge home game for Iowa and they’ll come with some extra effort / emotion here after their embarrassing loss on Friday while the Huskers could be a bit flat after a big home win on Saturday.

#614 ASA PLAY ON Florida -2.5 over Tennessee, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - What a perfect spot to grab Florida. The Gators are coming off their first loss of the season @ Kentucky on Saturday. Now they are favored at home over the only undefeated in the country #1 Tennessee. That number speaks volumes. In their 106-100 loss @ Kentucky, the Gators normally stout defense played very poorly. They allowed the Wildcats to average a ridiculous 1.47 PPP while shooting almost 60% from the field and 48% from beyond the arc. It was by far the worst defensive performance of the season from a Florida team that ranks inside the top 20 in both 2 point FG% and 3 point FG% allowed. On a positive note, the Gator offense continued to roll ranking 3rd nationally in efficiency after putting up triple digits and 1.39 PPP on the road vs a very good UK defense. The Vols are off a big home win over Arkansas but they’ve played only 1 true road game since November 9th. That was a 2 point win @ Illinois (a very talented but very young team) and the Illini shot only 29% from the field and 17% from deep in that game and still almost won. Dating back to the start of the 2009 season, Tennessee has lost 9 of their 11 games @ Florida including the last 2 where they were favored in both games and lost by double digits. Since the start of last season, the Gators have won 21 of their last 22 home games with their only loss coming by 2 points vs Kentucky last year. This season, SEC home teams are 132-3 SU while on the road they are just 15-14 SU. We like Florida to get the win and cover on Tuesday.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +6.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7 PM ET - Detroit is coming off a huge home win over the Timberwolves on Saturday night and could let down here against the 12-win Trailblazers. The Pistons are .500 at home this season with an 8-8 SU record and a negative average scoring differential of minus -3.3ppg. Prior to the 14-point win against the Wolves, the Pistons have just two home wins by more than 9-points. In fact, the Pistons have a 1-5 ATS record as a home favorite with a negative differential of minus -0.2ppg. Portland is a 4-14 SU on the road this season, yet their average scoring differential is less than this spread at -10.53ppg. Portland is coming off a big win themselves over the Bucks in Milwaukee. The Blazers are 3-2 SU in their last five games with the wins coming against the Bucks, Mavs and Jazz. Portland has won 8 of the last nine meetings with Detroit and the lone loss came by 6-points in OT. We like the young Blazers to hang around in this one.

ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +6.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - I typically don’t like backing bad teams but will make an exception here with the Jazz plus the points. Orlando is really banged up right now with 4 of their best players Suggs, Banchero, and both Wagner out with injuries. I’m not concerned about the Jazz playing last night against the Heat as 8 players saw 20+ minutes and no starters played more than 31 minutes. In their last 8 games the Jazz have played better with a 3-5 SU record with two of those losses coming by 2 and 3-points. Orlando has a fantastic home record of 13-4 SU, but again they are essentially missing 4-starters here and their average Margin of Victory at home of +6.9 is barely higher than this pointspread. Orlando has some bad offensive statistics including 24th in overall FG%, 30th in 3PT% and 15th in offensive rebounds. Even with Utah’s bad defensive numbers that makes it tough for a depleted Magic team to cover this number.

#844 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Maryland, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We just laid 4.5 points with Oregon on Thursday night at home vs Illinois and it was a terrible pick to say the least. The Ducks were embarrassed 109-77 and we expect a huge bounce back at home on Sunday. As of this writing the line is Oregon -3 so we’re getting some nice value because of that terrible performance as the Illini rank in the top 10 per KenPom and Maryland sits at 26th and the line is lower for this one. The Ducks came into their game on Thursday night with just 1 loss, a 2 point setback to a very good UCLA team. Their defense had been really good prior to Thursday when Illinois went off for 58% from the field and 55% from the arc on a ridiculous 1.40 PPP. You can bet veteran head coach Dana Altman will have his team locked in defensively after that effort. The Ducks have played a very difficult schedule to date (27th SOS) and have some outstanding wins over Alabama, Texas A&M, and San Diego State. Maryland is in a rough situation as they were @ Washington on Thursday night now 72 hours later @ an angry Oregon team. The Terps lost at Washington (the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 10) by 6 on Thursday and they’ve lost both of their true road games this season. Unlike Oregon, the Terps have played a very easy schedule to date (330th SOS) and they are just 2-3 SU vs the 5 top 100 teams they’ve faced. Maryland has won only 3 of their last 17 road games in conference play and while we think they’ll be a solid team this year, this is not the spot. Lay it with Oregon.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +12 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - The Bucks are literally a yo-yo this season, up one night and looking like a contender, then down the next and getting beat by the 13-win Nets. Milwaukee is 11-6 SU at home this season, but they have an average Margin of Victory of just +3.9ppg. Portland is a horrendous 3-14 SU on the road this season, yet their average scoring differential is less than this spread at -11.3ppg. In the Bucks last home games none have come by more than 12 points. As a home favorite of -8 or more points at home the Bucks are 1-4 ATS their last five. Portland is coming off a loss in L.A. against the Lakers but played well in the 8-point loss. The Blazers are 2-2 SU in their last four games with the wins coming against the Mavs and Jazz. Portland is 5-4 ATS as a double-digit road underdog in their last nine games. Some might argue that the Bucks off a loss is the play but that hasn’t been the case this season as Milwaukee is just 6-8 ATS in that situation. In fact, going back to the start of last season, the Bucks have the second worst spread record coming off a loss of 21-28-1 ATS with a scoring margin of +2.0ppg. This is a case where we will support a bad Blazers team plus the points.

#772 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -2 over San Francisco, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough turnaround for San Francisco who played on the road @ Pacific just 48 hours ago and now they are @ Washington State. The Dons pulled off the 89-81 win @ Pacific but a non-cover as SF was favored by 13 over the Tigers who now have a record of 5-12. The Dons shot lights out hitting 51% of their shots, 45% of their triples and mad 19 of 21 FT’s but were still unable to pull away (final margin of 9 was their largest of the game) from a bad Pacific team. Now they travel to Washington State who is a perfect 6-0 at home this season with all of their wins coming by double digits and they’ve won 21 of their last 23 at home. The Cougars are one of the best shooting teams in the country (49.5%) ranking 28th but at home they up that to over 52% from the field while averaging 88 PPG. These 2 have nearly identical records (WSU 12-3 and SF 13-3) but Wazzou has played the tougher schedule at 109th SOS compared to the Dons at 229th. San Fran has played only 2 true road games this season winning @ Pacific as we discussed and losing @ Bradley. The situation heavily favors the home team who rarely loses on their home court. With the small spread, we’ll grab Washington State

#650 ASA PLAY ON North Dakota State -10.5 over Nebraska Omaha, Saturday at 2 PM ET - This sets up nicely situationally with NDSU coming off a rare home loss as a favorite while Nebraska Omaha is on a short 2 day turnaround coming off a road win @ UND as an underdog. We were on NDSU a few nights ago at home vs St Thomas and they lost their first game since November 26th with the Tommies winning 89-85. St Thomas hit 54% of their shots (43% for NDSU) and 47% from beyond the arc yet the game still went to the wire. We expect the Bison to come out with some fire at home after that tough loss. Prior to that this North Dakota State team had been destroying opponents at home. Their previous 3 home games were wins by margins of 29, 36, and 34 points with the latter 2 coming vs Western Michigan and Cal State Bakersfield who both rank higher than this Nebraska Omaha team. They’ve been shooting as well as any team in the nation ranking 4th in the country in eFG% and 3rd in 3 point FG% hitting just over 41% and they make nearly 79% of their FTs. That’s bad news for a Nebraska Omaha defense 312th in defensive efficiency, 310th in eFG% allowed, and 281st in 3 point FG% allowed. The Bison average 85 PPG at home while UNO gives up 78 PPG on the road so we expect NDSU to have a huge night offensively. Can the Mavericks keep up in this game? We don’t think so. They’re not a great shooting team ranking outside the top 220 in offensive efficiency and eFG%. They’ll need to get hot from 3 to stay in this game but that’ll be tough as they make only 33% from deep (162nd nationally) and NDSU defends the arc very well ranking 50th. UNO has averaged just 66 PPG in their 6 road losses this season and we look for an easy with for North Dakota State in this one.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets +3 vs Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - As I’m watching the Celtics on Thursday night it is very evident, they are spending a ton of energy in their game at Minnesota. While Boston was grinding away last night, the Rockets were at home resting for this game. This game will have more meaning for Rockets head coach Udoka who was fired by the Celtics a few years back. Houston is 12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS at home this season with the 6th best average scoring differential of +9.5ppg. The Rockets have been home underdogs just twice this season and they won/covered both. The Celtics are 11-3 SU on the road this season with the best average +/- in the NBA but they have a couple key injuries to Porzingis and Brown which hurts their overall depth. The Rockets key advantage will be on the offensive glass where they rank 1st in the NBA, compared to Boston who is 11th. The Rockets rate slightly better on the D-glass too. Houston is coming off a big home win over the Mavericks and will relish this underdog role at home. Grab the points with the Rockets.

#800 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Illinois, Thursday at 10 PM ET - Illinois makes the long travel to play @ Oregon Thursday night. The Illini have played only 1 true road game this season and they lost @ Northwestern. The other “semi” road game they played was in Birmingham, AL vs the Crimson Tide and Illinois lost that game by double digits. While the Illini are talented, they are very young with a number of freshman and sophomores in their rotation (304th in experience) and we think they’ll struggle at times on the road vs high level teams. That’s what they get here @ Oregon. The Ducks are very good and experienced with 5 seniors in the starting lineup and 8 of their top 9 players in terms of minutes per game are seniors. They are 12-1 on the season, despite playing a really tough schedule (39th SOS), and their lone setback was by 2 points vs a UCLA team that is 11-2. The Ducks have been really good at home winning 21 of their last 25 games in Knight Arena and their average margin of victory at home this season is +19 PPG. The Illini rely heavily on the 3 point shot (58th in percentage of points scored from beyond the arc) and getting to the FT line (53rd in percentage of points scored from the charity stripe). Two problems here, that plays right into Oregon’s defensive strengths (24th defending the arc & 60th in points allowed from the FT line. On top of that, Illinois has shot poorly away from home which can be expected from a young team. They have made only 37% of their shots and 26% of their triples in their 1 true road game @ NW. We like the Ducks to win and cover at home.

#690 ASA PLAY ON Butler +2.5 over Villanova, Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Huge home game here for Butler who has lost 5 straight games and really needs a win here with their next 2 games coming on the road. To put their 5 game losing streak into perspective, 4 of those losses came vs UConn, Marquette, Houston, and Wisconsin who currently have a combined record of 40-11. Their most recent game was a 4 point loss to UConn in a game that went down to the wire. The Bulldogs have faced an extremely difficult schedule to date (33rd SOS) and today’s opponent, Villanova, is rated lower than 7 teams Butler has already played. The Wildcats have played 2 true road games and lost both @ St Joes and @ Creighton. They’ve also played 2 neutral site games and lost those as well so Nova is 0-4 away from home this year. The Bulldogs should have 2 solid offensive advantages in this game. One from beyond the arc and the other at the FT line. Both teams shoot the 3 well (ranked 9th and 20th in 3 point FG%) but Villanova is poor at defending the arc ranking 317th (Butler ranks 70th at defending the 3 point line). The Dogs get to the line A LOT with 26% of their points coming from the stripe (7th best in the nation) while the Wildcats rarely get to the line with just 16% of their points coming from the FT line (312th). Butler has won 4 of their last 5 at home vs Villanova and we look for them to come out on top again Wednesday. Take the points.

#656 ASA PLAY ON Nevada -2.5 over Utah State, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - We went against Nevada on the road on Saturday and picked up a win with Wyoming as a 6 point dog. The Cowboys won the game by 3 points and that puts Nevada in a must win type spot after dropping to 0-2 in the Mountain West. After this game they play their next 2 on the road so this becomes a huge home game for the host. Nevada has actually lost 2 straight so this is a huge game for the Pack. They are catching Utah State in a terrible spot playing their 3rd straight road game and coming off back to back upset wins as underdogs on the road over St Mary’s and San Diego State. In their win on Saturday @ SDSU, the Aggies never led by more than 1 point and trailed for 95% of the game. They made a 3 pointer with 7 seconds left to win 67-66. The Aztecs shot just 38% and only 25% from deep and still led mainly the entire game. Reno is a very tough place to play with Nevada winning 35 of their last 40 home games and they’ve also won 5 of their last 6 at home vs MWC rival Utah State. In their most recent home game, Nevada was -8 vs a solid Colorado State team that isn’t a fully 5+ points worse than CSU on a neutral court which is what this line suggests. This spot screams to take the home team and at this low number, we’ll do just that.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -5 at Portland Trailblazers, 10 pm ET - It’s hard to imagine if the NBA playoffs where to start today, the 76ers would be out. This team was one of the odds-on favorites to come out of the East this season but early season injuries have tempered their success. The biggest factor has been the absence of Joel Embiid who has played in just 10 games this season. The Sixers needed to adjust to him back in the lineup and lost 4 games in a row. Since then, the 76ers have gone 5-1 SU with 4 straight wins. In this current 4 game winning streak with Embiid in the lineup they have a very impressive road win at Boston. Portland on the other hand was projected to struggle again this season after winning just 21 games a season ago. The Blazers are 11-20 SU on the season with the 3rd worst scoring differential at minus -8.9ppg. Even with a winning home record they have a negative average point differential of -6.1ppg. Philadelphia has taken care of lesser opponents this season on the road with a 5-2 SU record as a road favorite, winning by an average of +4.4ppg. Again, the majority of those games come without either Embiid, Maxey or George on the floor all at the same time. Portland has been a respectable home dog this season but still has a negative differential of minus -3.9ppg. We feel Philly is turning the corner and in a situation where they can’t take wins for granted. Going back to the start of last season the 76ers are 16-10 ATS laying points on the road and they win those games by an average of +6.8ppg. Lay it here with Philadelphia.

#883 ASA PLAY ON UC Irvine -4 over Cal Baptist, Monday at 10 PM ET - Love this spot for UC Irvine. They are coming off their worst performance of the season, a 70-54 loss @ Duquesne, and they’ve had 10 days to stew about that setback and get ready for this one. UCI is 10-2 on the season and their only other loss was @ Oregon State. The Anteaters have won 2 straight Big West Titles and are favored to win their 3rd this season. They are a fantastic defensive team ranking 22nd in the country in defensive efficiency and they are holding opponents FG percentage of 39.4% on the season. In their loss @ Duquesne, the Anteaters allowed the Dukes to hit 49% of their shots and 56% of their triples while allowing 1.17 points per possession, their worst mark of the season. It was just the 3rd time in 12 games this season UCI allowed an opponent to average more than 1.00 PPP. After that subpar performance and more than a week off to make adjustments, we expect UCI to be really focused on the defensive end of the court. They should have plenty of success vs a Cal Baptist team that ranks 255th making just 43.5% of their shots while hitting only 30% of their 3’s (297th). The Cal Baptist Lancers have played an easy slate this far (283rd SOS) yet they have a 7-6 record. They haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 200 and tonight they face a UCI team that ranks 69th nationally per KenPom. The Lancers just played on Saturday so a quick turnaround vs an angry, rested team. In their game on Saturday Cal Baptist struggled to a 79-73 home win vs a Jackson State team that is winless on the season (0-13 record). UC Irvine is absolutely the better team in this match up and they are in the better situation as well. We’re getting a cheap line because they are on the road. We’ll take it.

#680 ASA PLAY ON UC Riverside +1 over St Thomas, Sunday at 5 PM ET - Long travel for St Thomas (Minneapolis) and they are a bit overvalued right now having won 6 straight games. 4 of those 6 wins came vs teams that are ranked 285th or lower and their 1 solid road win this year @ Northern Colorado, the Tommies shot a ridiculous 64% from the field. They are 3-3 on the road with their other 2 wins coming vs teams ranked 285th and 322nd. Now they face a top 200 team in the road in UC Riverside. The Highlanders have played a very tough schedule thus far (47th ranked SOS / St Thomas SOS is 250th) yet they still have a solid 8-5 record. UCR is 5-0 at home and should have a little extra motivation here coming off a 66-53 loss @ UNLV a week ago. St Thomas gets very little inside production (301st in percentage of points inside the arc) and they don’t get to the line very often. Thus, they rely very heavily on make 3 point shots which can make life tough on the road especially facing a solid 3 point defense (UCR allows 32% from deep). The Tommie also have a huge Summit League game on deck vs North Dakota State, the best team in the conference, so that game is of more importance. Coming from Minneapolis, they may view this as a bit of a vacation on west coast with warm weather before tipping off conference play on Thursday. Plus being away from home over the holidays may make it extra tough to focus. We’ll take the home team here.

ASA NBA top play on Detroit Pistons +5.5 at Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - If you are not paying attention to the NBA you probably haven’t noticed the improvement of the Detroit Pistons. Detroit has as many wins today (14) as they did the entire season a year ago. They are slightly below average defensively in Efficiency ratings (16th) allowing 1.142-points per possession. On the season they rank 22nd in OEFF but in their last five games they are scoring 1.123-points per possession which is also around league average. Denver has slipped defensively this season and will be without their best defender in this game with Aaron Gordon out. The Nuggets played a big game last night against the Cavaliers making this the second night of a back-to-back. This will also be the Nugs 4th game in six days, 5th in seven. The Pistons have won 3 straight road games at Phoenix, Lakers and Kings and are also 4-1 their last five away from home. Denver has an average +/- at home of just +2.6ppg which is significantly lower than their season average at home a year ago of +8.1ppg. Another sign of the Pistons improvement is their road scoring differential of -0.1ppg, 12th best in the NBA. Grab the points with Detroit here.

#626 ASA PLAY ON Elon -5 over Marshall, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Elon has played the more difficult schedule to date (#185 SOS compared to #307 for Marshall), yet they still have the better record at 8-4 (Marshall is 7-6). Elon is also 4-0 at home this year while Marshall is 0-5 on the road. Dating back to last season Marshall has lost 12 straight road games and all but 2 of those have come by more than 5 points which is tonight’s spread (as of Friday evening). The Phoenix have already beaten 3 teams this season ranked higher than Marshall including a solid road win @ Notre Dame. They should have a huge advantage as the FT line in this game as Elon scores over 21% of their points from the stripe (69th nationally) and the Herd fouls a lot with their opponents scoring 25% of their points from the stripe (12th worst nationally). On the other end, we don’t expect Marshall to get many freebies as the disciplined Elon defense fouls very little. On top of that, Marshall is one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country (28% which is 334th) which makes it very tough to win on the road. Their defense will struggle to keep them in this game as well as they allow over 50% shooting on the road and 81 PPG. Lay it with Elon on Saturday.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 pm ET - Looking at the Clippers recent stretch of games we see they were recently a +3-point home dog to Houston, Minnesota and Denver. In the games against the Rockets and Wolves the Clippers were without key pieces as Powell and Harden each missed a game. The Clippers lost both. Prior to those two games, with Powell/Harden they beat the Nuggets at home 126-122. The reason we bring that up is this: The Warriors aren’t as good as those three teams, yet are favored on the road in Los Angeles? Golden State is coming off an emotional Christmas Day loss to the Lakers and slipped to 1-5 SU in their last six games. For the season the Clippers rank 11th in Offensive Efficiency, the Warriors rank 13th. Defensively, the Clippers hold the edge with the 6th best Defensive Efficiency rating compared to the Warriors 8th ranking. When we look exclusively at the last 10 games of each team we see the Clippers have the better overall Net Rating of +1.5 compared to the Warriors NR of -6.7. Golden State lives and dies by the 3-pointer (12th in 3PT%), but the Clippers defend the arc as well as anyone in the league allowing 34.3% (4th). The Clippers have won 5 straight in the rivalry including two games this season. We expect them to make it 3 in a row on Friday.

ASA NBA top play on Chicago Bulls +6.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - This will be the third meeting this season between these two teams with the Bulls winning both clashes thus far. Some bettors might want to back the Hawks with revenge but not us. This is a game where the Hawks have a hard time matching up against the Bulls. Chicago’s two wins against Atlanta have come by 12 and 14-points. Chicago has won 3 straight in the series and 5 of the last six. If we look at each teams last five games we find the Bulls have a Net Rating of -4.5 compared to the Hawks NR of -1.5. Chicago has won 3 straight on the road and have a Net scoring differential of -0.5ppg when away from home which ranks 14th in the NBA. Atlanta is 8-7 SU at home this season with the 19th worst average scoring margin of -2.6ppg. As a home favorite the Hawks are 2-7 ATS with a negative differential of minus -2.1ppg. Neither team is good defensively and the Bulls shoot it better at 46.8% overall (10th) and 37% (9th) from deep compared to the Hawks who shoot 46.3% (15th) and 35% (21st). Grab the points and the Bulls.

ASA NBA play on LA Lakers +4 at Golden State Warriors, 8 PM ET - The Lakers are always a tricky team to bet on because you never know if LeBron/AD is going to play or not. LeBron was away from the team recently for unknown reasons, other than the fallout from his Diddy party comments on social media. With the TV lights on LBJ will be in the lineup tonight against the Warriors. Both teams are off losses as the Lakers lost to the Pistons at home, the Warriors lost to the Pacers. Golden State and Los Angeles both have really good results off a loss so that is basically a wash. If we look at the full season stats we see the Warriors have a very slight edge in Offensive Efficiency, and a significant advantage in Defensive Efficiency. If we look at each team's last five games though we see the opposite with the OEFF numbers being about even, but the Lakers defense over the last five games has been outstanding and the Warriors has not. Golden State currently ranks 26th in DEFF over the last 5 games allowing 1.183PPP, the Lakers D has allowed 1.037PPP in that same stretch of games. We can’t trust a Warriors defense that gave up 143+ points in two consecutive games in the past two weeks. As an NBA fan, enjoy what might be the last meaningful game between two future Hall of Famers in LeBron and Steph Curry.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns +6 at Denver Nuggets – 10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Suns here who last played on Thursday night at home against the Pistons. Phoenix lost that game and the game previous to Indiana, both at home. Kevin Durant certainly did everything in his power to carry this Suns team with 37pts, 10rebs and 6ass against the Pacers and 43pts, 5rebs and 6ass against the Pistons. Phoenix is a respectable 5-7 SU on the road this season. Denver is coming off a game Sunday at New Orleans and played two other road games at the Kings and Blazers prior to that game. Denver has been very good off a loss since the start of last season with a 13-4 SU record and an average MOV of +6.5ppg. Phoenix though is 20-6 SU since the start of last year with an average+/- of +7.7ppg. Phoenix has certainly underachieved this season, but the same can be said about the Nuggets. Denver has a Net rating of +2.4 while the Suns are -0.9. The Suns beat this Nuggets team two out of three meetings last season with both wins coming in Denver. KD will keep the Suns in that entire game and cover the spread in the process.

#867 ASA PLAY ON College of Charleston +2.5 over Loyola Chicago, Monday at 5:30 PM ET - Both of these teams lost yesterday in their opening games of the Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu. Much different circumstances however as Loyola was a 6.5 point favorite and lost to Oakland who has a current record of 4-7 and their only lead in that game was 2-0. C of C lost as a dog to a very good Oregon State team making only 6 of 24 three point shots (24%) when on the season they’ve hit 36% from deep (81st nationally). Loyola will have a tougher time in this back to back situation as they are without 3 starters which has drastically thinned their bench. Those 3 players account for nearly 30 PPG, 10 RPG, and 7 APG and each average over 20 minutes per game. When healthy, the Ramblers won their first 8 games, but since the injuries to 3 key players, they have lost 2 of their last 3 with their only win in that stretch coming vs Canisius who is 0-13 and ranked 357th. Even in that win, Loyola didn’t really dominate a bad team winning by 12 at home. The Cougars have played the much tougher schedule (102nd SOS compared to 361st for Loyola) but still have a solid 8-3 record with top 100 wins over St Joes and FAU. The Ramblers have only played 1 team in the top 100 and lost that game by double digits vs San Francisco. If this one is tight, it could be won or lost from the FT line and C of C hits 76% of their freebies compared to 64% from Loyola. Tough spot for an undermanned Rambler team playing their second game in 24 hours. We’ll take the points.

#753 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -3 over Missouri, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Missouri is 10-1 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country ranking 361st in SOS out of 364 teams.  They’ve faced only 2 top 100 teams all season and the Tigers have also played 10 straight home games.  Their only game away from home was a loss @ Memphis to start the season.  7 of their 11 opponents this season currently rank 255th or lower.  Illinois is 7-3 on the year but they’ve faced the 71st most difficult schedule to date with their losses coming vs Bama & Tennessee (2 top 10 teams) and @ Northwestern in OT in a game the Illini led by double digits in the 2nd half.  Their most recent game was a 66-64 home loss vs #1 Tennessee losing a layup as time expired by the Vols.  The Illini have had a full week to get over that tough loss and get ready for this game.  These 2 rank nearly identical in offensive efficiency yet Illinois is far better on the defensive end (12th in defensive efficiency to 103rd for Mizzou) despite playing the much tougher schedule as we referenced earlier.  Illinois is also the much better rebounding team and they keep opponents off the foul line which is where Mizzou has lived thus far ranking 25th in percentage of points from the FT line.  This game is played on a neutral site in St Louis and last season Illinois throttled Missouri by 24 points.  The Illini are still a top 20 team (per KenPom) and while the Tigers have improved, they were 8-24 last year so how much have they improved?  It’s really hard to tell as they’ve been at home all season and only played a few good teams.  We’ll lay the small number with the team we know is solid, that’s Illinois.

ASA NBA play on Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:40 PM ET - We are going to try and beat the Jazz again tonight when they travel to Brooklyn to face the Nets. Utah is clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season and we are betting they don’t win two games in a row. The Jazz have lost 14 of their last 17 games and 10 of those losses have been by six points or more. Utah has a negative scoring margin of -10.6ppg which is the 28th highest number in the NBA. Utah is the worst defensive team in the league in terms of Efficiency rating allowing 1.215-points per possession. The Jazz are 29th in opponents FG% defense at 48.7%, 26th in 3PT% allowed at 37.4% and have given up an average of 121.8ppg over their last 10 games. The Jazz turn the ball over at one of the highest rates in the NBA. There were clearly some issues in the Nets locker room with Denis Schroeder on the roster. As soon as he was traded the Nets went on the road and beat Toronto in their most recent game. Cam Johnson has elevated his game as he tries to improve his draft stock and get out of Brooklyn. Johnson is coming off a 33 point, 10 rebound and 6 assists against the Raptors. Brooklyn has some horrible home losses in recent weeks, but they have come against: Cleveland, Milwaukee, Orlando twice and Boston. Those are 4 top teams in the East. Utah has just 4 road wins on the season and are coming off an upset in Detroit. We like the Nets here.

#708 ASA PLAY ON Kentucky -8.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET - OSU will be shorthanded here with starting PG Johnson out. The Buckeyes are 7-4 on the season and they’ve been poor when stepping up in competition. They’ve faced 4 teams this season ranked in the top 35 (per KenPom) and they’ve lost those games by 38, 24, 14, and 1 point (1 point loss was AT HOME vs Pitt). The Buckeyes have had a rough go offensive away from home (road or neutral) averaging just 64 PPG including getting held under 60 points twice. That’s a huge difference compared to their home splits where they average 90 PPG on the season. 5 of OSU’s 7 wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200 all but 1 of their 7 wins have come at home. Kentucky has 1 loss on the season @ Clemson and they have 4 top 100 wins including topping Duke and Gonzaga, 2 top 6 teams per KenPom. They Buckeye offense relies pretty heavily on the 3 point shot (almost 35% of their points come from deep) but they are facing a Wildcat defense that ranks 12th nationally defending the arc allowing only 27%. The Kentucky defense has allowed opponents to make only 39% of their shot this year so we expect OSU to have problems on offense. Offensively the Wildcats lead the nation in scoring at 91 PPG and they rank 8th nationally in offensive efficiency. OSU’s defense has allowed 83 PPG vs the 5 top 100 teams they’ve faced. We don’t think the Buckeyes can keep up offensively here. Lay it with Kentucky.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -3 over Northern Iowa, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Las Vegas. Washington State has the better record (9-3 compared to 7-4 for UNI) and they’ve played the much tougher slate thus far. Wazzou’s strength of schedule is ranked 84th while Northern Iowa has played the 258th ranked SOS so far. This line is lower than it should be according to our power ratings and that’s because UNI has won 4 straight games in blowout fashion vs teams ranked 205th, 353rd, 303rd, and 213th. The Panthers haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 100 and 6 of their 7 wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200. Washington State’s 3 losses this season have all come vs teams inside the top 100 (Iowa, SMU, and Washington). The Cougars are coming off a loss @ Washington on Wednesday giving them a little extra motivation here. Unlike UNI, the Cougars have already beaten 3 top 100 teams including Boise State on the road, Nevada on the road, and Bradley at home. Northern Iowa has done most of their damage at home but on the road (away or neutral) they are just 1-3 on the season with their only win coming vs Illinois Chicago. The Panthers lead the nation in FG% and they are #2 in 3 point FG% hitting at numbers that are not sustainable. Their 4 game winning streak has come vs poor opponents that all rank outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. Now they face a Washington State defense that ranks 87th in that category. We like Wazzou to cover this small number in Las Vegas on Saturday.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat +1.5 vs OKC Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - The NBA schedule makers didn’t do the Thunder any favors with this second game in two nights for the Thunder after playing in Vegas in the Cup Finals against the Bucks. Miami is 4-1 SU their last five games with their most recent being a 1-point loss in Detroit. Prior to that the Heat won 4 straight at home with quality wins against the Raptors, Cavs, Suns and Lakers. In fact, the Heat are 7-1 SU their last seven home games and the lone loss was by 3-points to the red-hot Bucks. If we take a closer look at Miami and their last 5 games, we see they have the second-best Net rating in that stretch of games. The team ahead of them in that stat category is the OKC Thunder but again this is a tough spot for them coming off a game against Orlando last night. Miami has a profitable spread record when playing with a rest advantage of 13-10 ATS dating back to last season and they’ve won those games by an average of +5.4ppg. Miami is also 7-3 ATS this season when coming off a loss. It’s tough to bet against OKC but we’ll make an exception tonight and take Miami.

#748 ASA PLAY ON Utah Tech +2.5 over South Dakota, Thursday at 9 PM ET - South Dakota steps into this game with a 9-4 record facing a 3-10 Utah Tech team and yet the Coyotes are only favored by 2.5 (opening line)? Looks pretty easy to grab South Dakota here but we’re on Utah Tech. The Coyotes record has been partly a product of their schedule. They’ve faced the 316th most difficult slate this season with 8 of their 13 games coming at home. On the road, this team is just 1-4 SU on the season with their only win coming @ Western Michigan (3-7 current record) by 4 points in a game WMU shot 18% from 3 and took 10 fewer FT attempts. Going back further, this South Dakota team has simply been terrible on the road winning just 5 of their last 32 dating back to the start of the 2022 season. Tough to consider them when favored on the road. On top of that, laying points on the road with a terrible defense is not ideal. The Coyotes 349th in defensive efficiency (out of 364 teams) and they rank 328th defending the arc. Tough to win on the road this those numbers on the defensive end. Utah Tech as a bad record but they’ve also faced the 67th most difficult schedule which is a huge jump from what South Dakota has faced. They’ve also only played 4 homes games and 9 road games this season. One of their top players, Beon Riley (14 PPG & 8 RPG) has missed the last few games and they are thinking they’ll have him back here. We’ll take the points here and call for Utah Tech to win this one outright.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:10 PM ET - Utah is clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA AGAIN this season and the Pistons have improved significantly after their 14 wins season a year ago. The Jazz have lost 14 of their last 16 games and 10 of those losses have been by six points or more. Utah has a negative scoring margin of -10.6ppg which is the 28th highest number in the NBA. Utah is the worst defensive team in the league in terms of Efficiency rating allowing 1.215-points per possession. The Jazz are 29th in opponents FG% defense at 48.7%, 26th in 3PT% allowed at 37.4% and have given up an average of 121.8ppg over their last 10 games. Detroit is slightly below average in terms of Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating despite facing a difficult schedule. The Pistons are coming off a confidence building win against the Heat at home in their most recent game and we are betting that momentum will carry over here against a bad Jazz team.

#706 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over VCU, Thursday at 9 PM ET - VCU is 9-2 on the season but they’ve played one of the easier schedules on the country (301st SOS per KenPom).  They’ve faced on only 2 top 100 teams this season (1-1 record) and 8 of their 9 wins have come vs teams that rank 150th or lower.  On top of that, this is their first true road game of the season as they head to the Pit, one of the tougher places to play in the country.  New Mexico hasn’t left home this entire month while VCU played in Vegas on Saturday vs Colorado State and now travel to Albuquerque for this one.  The Lobos have played the more difficult schedule to date and have already beaten 2 top 100 teams (UCLA and USC both on neutral courts).  VCU’s defensive numbers for the season are solid, however, they’ve faced only 2 top 100 offense (efficiency) so far this season and they split those 2 games beating Miami FL and losing to Nevada.  Tonight they face a potent New Mexico offense that is averaging nearly 90 PPG (8th best scoring offense in the nation).  VCU thrives at turning teams over leading to extra possessions but New Mexico has done a very good job at protecting the ball (70th in offensive turnover rate) so that may not work tonight on the road.  The Lobos have won 19 of their last 23 home games and this is a huge game for them with 3 of their next 4 coming on the road.  Lay the small spread with New Mexico.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks – Cup Finals 8:30 PM ET - If you have paid attention to our preseason suggestions, we like the Thunder to win it all this season. They had one of the best rosters in the league, one of the 5 very best players, and then went out and added a few key pieces. The Bucks got off to a slow start but are playing extremely well right now and look like a contender in the East. OKC has the best average scoring margin in the NBA at +12.1PPG, +11.8PPG on the road. Milwaukee is +1.4PPG overall on the season, -2.2PPG on the road. We mention the road differentials as this is a neutral site game in Las Vegas but do expect more Thunder fans in attendance. OKC is 1st in Defensive Efficiency and 8th in Offensive Efficiency this season. The Bucks on the other hand rank 14th in DEFF, 10th in OEFF. The Bucks have gone 12-3 SU their last fifteen games, but a closer look shows only 4 of those wins came against teams with a current winning record. OKC on the other hand has gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games with wins over teams such as the Rockets, Mavericks, Lakers, Warriors and Kings. The Bucks are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA defending point guards and Alexander for the Thunder should have a big night. OKC on the other hand allows the fewest point to power forwards in the NBA and will make Giannis work for every point. Bucks 0-6 SU against top 5 rated teams this season. Lay the points with the Thunder.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Ohio St -21.5 over Valparaiso, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - OSU will be looking to smack someone here after getting blasted by Auburn 91-53 on Saturday in Atlanta. The Bucks have shown good bounce back ability when facing inferior opponents this year. Prior to their loss on Saturday, they were twice beaten by double digits on the road this season @ Texas A&M and @ Maryland and turned around the next game and beat Evansville by 30 and Rutgers by 14. OSU has also shown this season that when tabbed a big favorite, they have no problem burying teams. They have been a chalk of -19 or higher 4 times this season and covered all 4 by an average of more than 10 PPG. They were favored by anywhere from -19 to -25 in those 4 games and the average final score in those blowout wins was 92-51. Valpo has a 5-4 record on the season but they’ve faced the 342nd most difficult schedule per KenPom. Their only true road game was a 19 point loss @ DePaul in a game they trailed by 25 with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game. The Crusaders have faced only 2 teams all season ranked inside the top 200 (both losses) and OSU is the best team they’ve played this year by a wide margin. The Buckeyes rank inside the top 30 in both offensive and defensive eFG% while Valpo ranks outside the top 285 in both those statistics despite facing one of the easier schedules in the country. OSU’s losses have come all vs top 30 teams (Auburn, Maryland, Pitt, and Texas A&M) and Valparaiso has been terrible on the road winning just once in their last 19 true roadies. This has blowout written all over it.

#607 ASA PLAY ON Clemson -2.5 over South Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Clemson has the better record in this one despite playing the much tougher schedule.  The Tigers are 9-2 on the season and they’ve faced the 75th most difficult schedule to date.  Their losses have come @ Boise State and in OT on Saturday vs Memphis.   The Tigers have wins over Kentucky, Penn State, and Miami FL (all top 100 teams).  The Gamecocks are 7-3 but they’ve faced the 261st most difficult slate thus far.  They don’t have a win vs anyone in the top 140 and in their 2 games vs top 100 teams, they lost both by 16 vs Indiana and by 9 vs Xavier, both rated lower than this Clemson team.  South Carolina also already has a home loss vs North Florida who was the highest rated team they’ve faced at home thus far.  The Tigers have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court and they are the much better rebounding team.  If this one is tight late, FT’s could be key in who wins this one and Clemson shoots 74% from the stripe compared to 66% for South Carolina.  Clemson has won 5 of the last 7 in this in-state rivalry including 2 of the last 3 @ South Carolina.  The Tigers should play with a little extra edge here coming off their OT loss vs a very good Memphis team who had wins over UConn, Michigan State, and Missouri prior to squeaking one out on Saturday @ Clemson.  We like the Tigers laying the small number. 

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 10:30 PM ET - We don’t make a habit of betting on big favorites in the NBA but will make an exception tonight with the Clippers at home against the Jazz. The Clippers have lost three straight games, but the losses have come against Minnesota, Houston and Denver, three of the better teams in the West. They are about to embark on a very tough road trip with games at Dallas twice and then Memphis which makes winning this game more important than usual. Prior to the 3-game losing streak this Clipper team hosted the Blazers who grade similarly to this Jazz team and beat them by 22-points as a -8.5-point favorite. The 5-win Jazz are a mess right now having lost 7 of their last eight games and are just 3-9 SU away from home this season. Utah has an average loss margin of -8.8ppg on the road this season which is 28th most in the NBA. The big separator for these teams is their defenses. The Clippers rank 7th in Defensive efficiency allowing just t1.097-points per possession. The Jazz on the other hand is allowing 1.199PPP which is second most in the league. The Clippers have won 3 of the last four meetings with the Jazz by 11 or more points and our model is projecting a +14 win tonight. Lay the points with the LA Clippers.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 7 PM ET - You may be shocked to know that these two teams have nearly identical records at 13-11 for the Wolves and 13-12 for San Antonio. Minnesota got off to a slow start this season with the subtraction of KAT and the additions of Randle and DiVincenzo but have found a groove in recent weeks. Minnesota is 5-1 SU their last six games with the lone loss at Golden State. They have covered 4 of their last five games with impressive wins over the Clippers, Warriors and Lakers. San Antonio has won two straight games but don’t be misled by those results as the wins came against the 5-21 Pelicans and 8 win Blazers. Prior to those two wins the Spurs had lost to Phoenix, Chicago and Sacramento. Minnesota is playing better as evidenced by their Net Rating of +5.3 in their last 10 games compared to the Spurs Net Rating of -3.6 over that same period. If we look at each team's most recent 5-games we see the Wolves have a decisive advantage in Net Ratings of +15.3 (3rd best in NBA) versus the Spurs -9.8 (25th). San Antonio upset the Wolves early in the season when Minnesota was trying to figure things out. The Timberwolves are in a much better place now and won’t look past this San Antonio team with essentially the same record.

#306627 ASA PLAY ON Norfolk State +3.5 over Northern Kentucky, Sunday at 1 PM ET - NKY is 4-6 on the season and their 4 wins have come vs Kentucky State (Non D1), University of the Cumberlands (Non D1), Bellarmine (ranked 333rd), and IU Indy (ranked 349th). Not an impressive list to say the least. Their defense has been one of the worst in the country ranking 337th in eFG% allowed and 358th in 3 point FG% allowed. They haven’t been much better on the other end of the court offensively ranking 295th in eFG% and 331st in 3 point FG%. Throw out their games vs the 2 Non Division 1 teams listed above and the Norse are only averaging 65 PPG on the season. Norfolk State is 6-5 on the year and they have already tallied 3 true road wins. The Spartans are the much better shooting team hitting 49% of their shots on the season (42nd nationally) led by 2 very solid guards (Moore & Ings) who combined to average 33 PPG this season. Norfolk returns 4 starters from last year’s team that finished with a 24-11 record. They are very well coached by head man Robert Jones who returns for his 12th season and over the last 3 years (prior to this season) he has led the Spartans to 70 wins and just 29 losses. They are hungry for a win here coming off back to back losses including losing @ Baylor on Wednesday so a little extra motivation for the better team in our opinion. NKY continues to be overvalued with a 1-7 ATS record on the season while Norfolk is 7-2 ATS, including a 5-1 mark as an underdog. Take the points with Norfolk as we like them to win this game outright.

#704 ASA PLAY ON UC Santa Barbara -13.5 over UW Green Bay, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for UWGB making the long travel to the west coast after getting rolled at home by rival UW Milwaukee on Wednesday night. The Phoenix lost that game by 19 points but it wasn’t that close was UWM led by 29 with 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. New head coach Doug Gottlieb is struggling in his first year ever coaching CBB with a 2-9 overall record and 6 straight losses. Their 2 wins came vs Western Illinois (ranked 325th) and SIUE (ranked 259th) with their most recent win coming nearly a month ago. The Phoenix are a terrible defensive team ranking outside the top 330 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, 3 point FG% allowed, and PPG allowed. They have given up more than 80 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Not a great match up here for that terrible defense facing a UCSB team that ranks 13th in eFG%, 24th in 3 point FG%, and 31st in 2 point FG%. The Gauchos are also stout on the defensive end allowing opponents to shoot just 38% which is the 18th best mark in the nation. UCSB should get plenty of extra opportunities as well on the offensive end as UWGB is a terrible rebounding team on both ends. The Phoenix are also working through some locker room issues as their leading scorer was benched 2 games ago for not showing up to a pre-game shoot around. UCSB rolls in this one.

ASA NBA play on MILWAUKEE BUCKS -3.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks – 3:30 PM ET - These same two teams recently met in Milwaukee with the Hawks prevailing 119-104. The Bucks were playing the second night of a back-to-back after clinching a Cup spot the night before against the Pistons. Milwaukee was also without Khris Middleton who is now back in the lineup after missing most of the season with an injury. Both teams are on a heater right now with the Hawks winning 7 of their last ten and the Bucks going 8-2 SU their last ten. If we compare Net Ratings over that 10-game stretch, we see the Bucks have the better overall number of +6.3 compared to the Hawks +1.1. The Hawks have a couple of budding stars on their roster with Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels, but the Bucks have more established, veteran SuperStars with Lillard and Giannis. The Hawks are getting a ton of public action, and the pros keep buying the Bucks. I’m on the side of the pros here with Milwaukee in a quick revenge match up on a neutral court in Vegas.

#630 ASA PLAY ON Kansas -13.5 over NC State, Saturday at 3:15 PM ET - Love this spot for the Jayhawks at home. They are coming off back to back road losses @ Creighton and @ Missouri and they’ve had the full week off to stew about those setbacks and get ready for this home game vs NC State. Let’s not forget before those back to back losses, the Jayhawks had wins over UNC, Michigan State, and Duke and they’ve faced the 15th most difficult schedule to date. NC State, on the other hand, has 3 losses already this season and they’ve faced the 303rd most difficult schedule so far per KenPom. The only win the Wolfpack have vs a team inside the top 200 was vs Florida State and that was at home in OT in a game they trailed by 6 in regulation late. Their 3 losses have come vs top 100 teams Texas at home, and by double digits vs Purdue and BYU on neutral courts. This will be their first true road game of the season and Kansas is the best team they’ve faced to date. Minus their win vs FSU, all of the Wolfpack’s wins have come vs teams ranked 215th or lower. Their most recent game on Tuesday night was at home vs an 0-11 Coppin State team that is rated the 2nd worst team in the nation (363rd) and NC State only won that game by 10 points as a 32 point favorite. That’s the closest game Coppin State has had this season and that includes the likes of UMBC, Loyola Maryland, Wagner, High Point, and Rider who all beat them by a larger margin than NC State. The Wolfpack have only 1 starter back from last year and they are still finding their way with a number of new transfers. Kansas is waiting to smack someone at home and it just happens that NC State is that someone. Blowout here.

#672 ASA PLAY ON Iowa +6.5 over Iowa State, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Huge revenge game for the Hawkeyes who were demolished last year @ ISU 90-65 as an 8 point dog. The Cyclones are laying nearly that same number on the road this year so we like the value with Iowa. ISU is playing their first true road game of the season and they have struggled in Iowa City losing 4 straight here, all by at least 14 points, with their last road win in this rivalry coming in 2014. The Hawkeyes are coming off a 2 point road loss @ Michigan last Saturday in a game they shot just 42% to Michigan’s 55% and made 7 fewer FT’s but still had a shot to win on the road vs a very good opponent. The Cyclone defense thrives on creating turnovers to pick up extra possessions but they may not get that advantage here vs an veteran Iowa back court that has only turned the ball over at a 14% rate (32nd nationally). Iowa State has also had a huge edge at the FT line in their games thus far attempting 93 more FT’s than their opponents in their 8 games. However, Iowa has done a great job of not fouling with only 12% of their opponents points coming from the charity stripe (11th lowest rate in the nation). On top of that, with this game being in Iowa City, we don’t see ISU getting a friendly whistle on Thursday night. The Hawkeyes should have a solid advantage from beyond the arc where they rank 33rd in 3 point shots made per game to ISU’s 208th in that category. Iowa had defended the arc very well this season allowing just 27% (13th nationally) so the Cyclones may make even fewer from deep than their average which isn’t great. Iowa has been waiting for this one after last year’s debacle and we expect this one to be tight. Iowa and the generous points are worth the take here.

#645 ASA PLAY ON UTEP +15 over Louisville, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Louisville has been decimated by injuries early in the season and they’ve struggled as of late losing 3 straight. They’ve already lost 2 starters for the season and their backup PG is also now out for the year. The most recent injury to Kesean Pryor on November 29th was a huge loss as he was putting up 12 PPG and 6 RPG. It’s gotten to a point for the Cards that head coach Pat Kelsey mentioned they’ve struggled to simply go 5x5 in practice due to lack of bodies (they are down to 8 scholarship players). They gave a valiant effort vs Duke here on Sunday building a 14 point first half lead but running out of gas in the 2nd half losing 76-65 and the Cards played only 7 players. Coming off that all out effort and facing arch rival Kentucky on Saturday, we have to believe Louisville might struggle here in this massive sandwich spot. UTEP is a solid team coming off a winning season last year and bringing back a number of their key players. The Miners are 7-2 on the season and have some momentum with 3 straight wins including topping 2 solid teams UNCG and Seattle, both top 140 teams. Unlike Louisville, the Miners are very deep with 10 guys averaging double digit minutes and 8 players averaging between 5 PPG and 13.5 PPG. Defensively they rank #1 in the nation this year AND last year at creating turnovers with opponents coughing it up 28% of the time. That could be a problem for a thin Louisville team that has struggled with turnovers this season and doesn’t have a backup PG. UTEP can also make 3’s (38% which is 50th in the nation) and they make their FT’s (76%). Going back to the start of last season, the Miners have lost only 3 games by more than 14 points (tonight’s line is +14.5). We like UTEP to give Louisville all they can handle on Wednesday and we’ll take the hefty points.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks -7 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - We are not sure how the Magic can score enough points to keep this game close with their two leading scorers both out for this game. Orlando is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA but the Bucks have two many options offensively with Lillard, Giannis and now K-Middleton back in the fold. After a horrendous start the Bucks are now 10-3 SU in their last 13 games and even with the three losses factored in they have an average plus/minus of +5.3PPG. Milwaukee has won 5 of their last six at home with those five wins coming by an average of +9PPG. Orlando is coming off an upset win over the Durant-less Suns two days ago and are in a tough scheduling situation here. The Magic played 5 straight road games, returned home for the game against the Suns, and are now back on the road again. The home team won all four meetings between these two last season and three of the four were blowouts by +15 or more points.

#610 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers -1 over Penn State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We really like this spot for Rutgers coming off 3 consecutive games while they catch PSU after their upset, court storming, home win over Purdue. The Scarlet Knights 3 games losing streak is not a huge surprise as they played high level opponents, away from home, and they were dogs in all 3 of those games vs Alabama, Texas A&M, and Ohio State. They covered 2 of those games losing tight games to Bama (by 5) and A&M (by 4) and they looked emotionally spent in their most recent loss @ OSU. Now Rutgers is back at home for the first time since November 20th and they get to face a Penn State team that has yet to play a true road game. They’ve faced a tough schedule (73rd SOS) thus far taking on 4 teams ranked in the top 80 while PSU’s SOS is ranked 296th and they’ve faced only 2 teams ranked in the top 100 (beat Purdue at home and lost to Clemson on a neutral). An extra layer of motivation for the Knights as they were favored by 8 points at home vs PSU in January and lost shooting just 34%, making only 1 of 17 from beyond the arc, and missing half their FT’s. It was one of the Nittany Lions 2 road wins last year (2-8 SU on the road last season & 7-24 SU on the road the last 3 seasons). PSU is hitting 52% of their shots this season (4th in the country) which isn’t sustainable, especially in their first true road game. They’ve faced only 2 top 100 defensive efficiency teams and already 4 ranked outside the top 300 in that category. Rutgers has one of the most talented teams they’ve ever had with 2 freshmen (Bailey and Harper) each expected to be top 10 draft picks next year. We like a bounce back, all in effort from Rutgers and at this small number we really only need them to win at home.

#754 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -4.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - This is a really good situational spot to grab the Boilers on a low number at home. Purdue was just smoked 81-70 on the road @ Penn State on Thursday. It wasn’t that close as PSU led by 27 with under 10:00 minutes remaining in the game. The Nittany Lions shot very well in that win but the huge edge was at the FT line where they made 29 freebies compared to 14 for Purdue. The Boilermakers also committed a ridiculous 24 turnovers which turned out to be a giveaway on 33% of their possessions. Head coach Matt Painter was upset after the game as you might expect. “Our fight wasn't even close to Penn State's fight. It wasn't even close. Not remotely close,” he said after the loss. You can expect Purdue to play with passion on Sunday. They are facing a Maryland team that is solid, but has yet to play a true road game. They’ve also faced one of the easiest schedules in the country (349th SOS per KenPom – Purdue has played the 16th most difficult SOS) with 6 of their 9 opponents thus far ranking outside the top 250. The Terps are coming off a blowout home win vs Ohio State and the Buckeyes looked disinterested after blowing a big lead and losing to Pitt in OT their previous game. Purdue is undefeated at home including an impressive 9 point win over top 10 Alabama. They have lost back to back games only one time since the start of the 2022 season and the Boilermakers have won 41 of their last 42 home games. The last 5 times these teams have faced off at Mackey Arena the Boilers have been favored by an average of -10.5 points and they’ve won all 5. We’re getting them at a very low number here because of their performance and PSU”s and Maryland’s blowout win over OSU. Take Purdue.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -9.5 vs Detroit Pistons, 7:40PM ET - The young Pistons have been competitive this season as an underdog with a 5-3-1 ATS record and an average differential of minus -2.2ppg. The Knicks though have been crushing teams of late with an overall 6-3-1 ATS record as a home favorite this season +15.2ppg. New York's last five home games have been decided by +24, +15, +33, +28 and +10-points. They have been double-digit chalks in 5 straight home games and are 4-0-1 ATS in that stretch. This Detroit team is heading in the right direction, but they’ve just played two similar opponents to the Knicks in the Bucks and Celtics. They lost by 19 at home to Milwaukee in a must win NBA Cup playoff game, then lost to the Celtics by 10-points in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. Detroit made 20 3-pointers against the Celtics and shot 51% from Deep. Do not expect the Pistons to have another great shooting night like they did against the C’s as they are a 35.8% 3PT shooting team on the season with an average of 13.1 makes per game. New York has been one of the best offensive teams in the NBA this entire season, shooting a hair under 50% as a team which is 2nd best in the league. They have the best Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.223-points per possession. Defensively the Knicks uncharacteristically rank 17th in DEFF for the season but in their last five games we are starting to see the Knicks D show up. In their most recent 5 games the Knicks have the 4th best DEFF allowing just 1.071PPP. Watch for the starting lineups in this game as Brunson is listed as questionable. Either way we like the Knicks by more than 10-points.

ASA NBA top play on New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:10 PM ET - We played against the Thunder the other night when they went to Toronto and destroyed the Raptors by 37-points. OKC was favored by -9.5 points in that game and are now giving the Pelicans that same number in New Orleans. At first glance, that would seem to make sense, but that number is based on the Pels 5-18 SU record, not the current lineup the Thunder are about to face tonight. New Orleans has been decimated by injuries this season and has had to play multiple bench players each and every night. They will be without Williamson tonight, but they have everyone else back including Ingram, Jones, McCollum and Murray. With that lineup intact they are coming off a 126-124 win over the Suns and they can certainly hang with the Thunder team on their home floor. The Pelicans have some added incentive here after being bounced from the playoffs a year ago by the Thunder and losing to them in November with a depleted lineup. OKC is really good this season, but they are not in a great scheduling situation here with this being their 6th road game out of their last seven overall. Not to mention they have a much bigger game on deck with the Mavericks looming.

#638 ASA PLAY ON St Thomas -6 over Montana, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We were on Montana as a home dog earlier this week facing South Dakota State and we picked up a nice win with the Grizzlies coming out on top 71-67. SDSU played that game without their leading scorer & rebounder Oscar Cluff, who averages 18 PPG and 11 RPG. That was a huge loss to a very young SDSU team that plays a number of freshmen and they were playing their first true road game of the season. Even with Cluff out the Jackrabbits kept it fairly close despite shooting only 17% from beyond the arc. Now Montana must travel to Minneapolis to face a full strength St Thomas team that ranks with SDSU at the top team in the Summit League. The Griz have won 4 in a row, however all those wins were at home. They are 0-3 SU on the road this season. St Thomas is unbeaten at home this season and they just won @ Northern Arizona by 12 points, a team from the Big Sky that is rated higher than Montana in that conference. The Tommies weakness is on the boards but the Grizzlies aren’t a team that can take advantage of that as they are bad on the glass as well. St Thomas is one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 23rd nationally in eFG%, 46th in 3-point FG% and 31st in 2-point FG%. They also make over 76% of their FT’s. Montana is not a good shooting team especially from beyond the arc where they make only 28% (313th). With the Tommies shooting well and averaging 84 PPG on the season, we’re not sure Montana can keep up. Lay the small number.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +1 at Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Wolves are in a much better scheduling situation here with the Warriors coming off a hard fought, physical game against the Rockets last night, while the Wolves are rested. Not only do the Wolves have a rest advantage but they didn’t have lengthy travel as they last played the Clippers on Wednesday night. Minnesota has won 3 straight and look like they are starting to figure their new roster out. Golden State played 2 recent road games including a game in Denver on Dec 3rd in higher altitude, then played last night making this the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights. The Warriors played last night without Curry and Draymond Green. Curry will probably be back tonight, Green is out for an extended period. Minnesota beat this Warriors team all three meetings a year ago, including a pair of wins on this court. If we look at the T’Wolves last five games they have the 7th best eDIFF rating in the NBA compared to the Warriors who rank 22nd in that same category. Grab the points with Minnesota.

#894 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +4.5 over Illinois, Friday at 9 PM ET - We think the Illini are overvalued right now after playing a very easy schedule thus far (309th SOS) and now playing their first true road game of the season. The Illini have played only 2 top 100 teams thus far and split those 2 games. NW is coming off a tough loss @ Iowa where the Hawkeyes hit a 3 pointer at the horn to win by 1 point. The Wildcats led that game by 6 points with less than 2:00 minutes remaining the game and obviously had a great shot to win a road game despite Iowa hitting 55% of their shots. NW’s 3 losses this season came @ Iowa by 1, @ Dayton by 5 (Dayton’s 2 losses are vs UNC by 2 and Iowa St by 5) and @ Butler by 2. The Cats have won the last 2 meetings outright in Evanston, both as underdogs. The Illinois defensive numbers are impressive, however, they have faced 3 teams ranked outside the top 300 in offensive efficiency and the only good offensive team they’ve faced, Alabama, put up 100 points. The Illini have a huge game on deck vs Wisconsin and they are facing a Northwestern team that has won 20 of their last 22 home games. This smells like a potential upset to us. We’ll take the points with Northwestern.

#892 ASA PLAY ON West Virginia -9.5 over Georgetown, Friday at 7 PM ET - Georgetown is 7-1 on the season but they are taking huge step up in competition here. The Hoyas strength of schedule ranks 354th (out of 364 teams) per KenPom. On top of that all 8 of their games have been at home. The only team they’ve played that ranks in the top 220 is Notre Dame, that game was at home and Georgetown lost that game by 21 points. That was vs an Irish team that currently has a losing record at 4-5. West Virginia, on the other hand, has played the 23rd strength of schedule and their only 2 losses are vs high level opponents Pitt and Louisville in OT. The Mountaineers have already beaten Gonzaga (who ranks #4 per KenPom) and Arizona (top 30 per KenPom). WVU has had a full week off since returning from their Bahamas tourney where they went 2-1 facing 3 top 50 teams. West Virginia has the better eFG% both offensively and defensively despite facing the much tougher schedule. The Mountaineers are the much better 3 point shooting team (35% to 29%) and if they need to close this one out and the foul line they hit 76% of the freebies. Last season the Hoyas were just 3-21 SU away the last 2 seasons with from home with 16 of those 21 losses coming by at least 7 points. We like WVU by double digits here.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors +9.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - This feisty Raptors team is flying under the radar right now and is a competitive out every night. Toronto is 15-7 ATS this season, 8-2 ATS as a home dog with an average loss margin of just -0.1ppg. In their last five games the Raptors are 16th in Offensive Efficiency and 10th Defensively. They have an average +/- of +5.6ppg in their last five outings. Toronto has won their last four home games against quality competition including the Pacers twice, the Heat and the Timberwolves. OKC is one of the top three teams in the league with Cleveland and Boston and currently sit 16-5 SU on the season. As a road favorite, they are 5-4 ATS with an average +/- of +8.6ppg. In their last five road games the Thunder have 2 losses and only one win by more than this point spread. OKC is an average shooting team at 46.2% and relies heavily on volume shooting (3rd in FGA’s). Toronto ranks 7th in fast break efficiency defense and should limit the Thunders transition opportunities. This is a big number and we like the home dog plus the point.

#306586 ASA PLAY ON UT Rio Grande Valley -6.5 over Stephen F Austin, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - UTRGV continues to slide under most people’s radars but this team is very good. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS covering by an average of more than 10 PPG. They have played a very tough schedule already traveling to play @ Nebraska, @ Creighton, and @ Wisconsin. They took the Badgers to the wire losing 87-84 and UTRGV had the ball down 1 point with less than 15 seconds remaining in the game. The Vaqueros are averaging 87 PPG, they rank 65th in the nation in eFG%, make 12 three pointers a game (9th in the nation), and hit 76% of their FT’s and keep in mind that’s vs the 81st most difficult SOS to date. Stephen F Austin has played a much easier slate (292nd) and they still have 3 losses. All 3 of their wins vs D1 opponents have come vs teams ranked 260th or lower and this team really struggles on offense. Take out their 2 games vs non Division 1 opponents and the Lumberjacks are averaging only 59 PPG. They rank 329th in offensive efficiency, make only 56% of their FT’s, and turn the ball over at a ridiculous rate (27.4% which is 363rd out of 364 teams). SFA is going to have a hard time keeping up in this game so we’ll lay the points with UT Rio Grande Valley playing in just their 3rd home game of the season.

#730 ASA PLAY ON Montana +3 over South Dakota State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Montana is on a 3 game winning streak, they are 5-0 at home this year and they’ve been at home since November 19th so more than 2 full weeks. The Grizzlies are coming off a very good 24-12 record a year ago and they are really tough to beat at home winning 21 of their last 24 games in Dahlberg Arena. They’ve only been a home dog 1 time since the start of the 2022 season and the Griz won that game outright. They’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country thus far (43rd SOS per KenPom) and their 3 losses have come vs high level teams all on the road (Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah State). This is a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting line up. Tonight they face a very young South Dakota State team who is playing their first true road game of the season. The Jackrabbits start 2 freshmen and have 4 freshmen in their top 7 all playing their first true road game of their careers. They have a slightly better record (7-2) but they’ve also played the much easier schedule (236th per KenPom). While Montana has been at home for a few weeks, SDSU played 3 games in the Cayman Islands last week, came home for 1 game vs Dakota Wesleyan on Monday and now 2 nights later on the road again @ Montana. The last time these 2 faced off @ Montana was 2 years ago and in a pick-em game, the Grizzlies rolled to an easy 81-56 win. We don’t expect a blowout here, but we do like the home team to get the win.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +4 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - First off, scheduling favors the Hawks in this Eastern Conference showdown as the Bucks played a big game in Detroit last night while the Hawks are rested. Milwaukee beat the Pistons in Detroit to clinch a spot in the Cup Playoffs by winning their pod. The Bucks are 7-10-1 ATS their last eighteen games when playing without rest with an average +/- of +3.2ppg which doesn’t get a cover here. On the flip side, the Hawks are a profitable 12-8 ATS their last twenty when playing with a rest advantage and have an average +/- of +4.0ppg. Milwaukee is playing well right now with 7 straight wins, but the Hawks have reeled of 4 straight of their own, with a pair of those wins coming against the Cavaliers. Looking at each team’s last 5 games we find the Bucks have the 5th best eDIFF (Efficiency Differential) in the NBA at +10.4, but the Hawks are 8th at +6.3. How much will Giannis play in the second night of a B2B? Dyson Daniels is one of the best defensive guards in the league and will make Lillard work for every point tonight. Jalen Johnson is quietly putting together All-Star type numbers and returns home to Wisconsin and could have a big game. The 4-points is too attractive to pass up.

#680 ASA PLAY ON UConn -2 over Baylor, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - You can bet UConn will come out with some serious effort here at home after going 0-3 in their tourney in Hawaii a week ago. Head coach Danny Hurley was very upset with his team (and refs!), especially on the defensive end. They’ve heard all week how they a program in decline, don’t deserve to be in the top 25 poll, etc… This is their chance to save face, so to speak, vs a solid team. Baylor has 2 losses on the season and in their only true road game this season, the Bears lost by 38 points @ Gonzaga. They’ve really struggled on the defensive end ranking 355th defending the arc (out of 364 teams) and 331st in defensive efficiency. Being poor on that end of the court makes is really tough to win on the road. They are facing a Connecticut offense that has been very good ranking in the top 10 nationally in both eFG% and offensive efficiency. The Huskies have won 25 straight home games and only twice during that stretch were they favored by single digits at home. 23 of their last 25 home games UConn has been favored by at least 10 points. We’re getting value here due to their struggles in Hawaii. Baylor, despite their success, has won only 5 of their last 14 road games dating back to the last month of the 2022/23 season. We like UConn at home Wednesday night.

#658 ASA PLAY ON Clemson +2 over Kentucky, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Tigers as a slight home favorite here so we like the value on Clemson as a dog. Kentucky has won their first 7 games of the season with 6 of those coming at home and another, vs Duke, on a neutral site in Atlanta. This will be their first true road game of the season which is always a tough spot especially vs a very good team like Clemson. Six of Kentucky’s seven wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 100 so their strength of schedule, besides Duke, hasn’t been great. The Tigers are 7-1 on the season with their lone loss @ Boise State. They are 5-0 at home and they’ve been really tough to beat in Littlejohn Coliseum winning 35 of their last 41 games in their own arena. The Kentucky offense is averaging a ridiculous 96 PPG on the season, however they’ve faced mainly poor defensive teams (5 of 7 ranked outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency) and they Cats have gotten the pace they want (fast – ranked 4th in adjusted tempo) vs most of the teams they’ve played. That changes here. Clemson will play this game at their much preferred slower pace and they really make opponents work on defense allowing a shot every 19.4 seconds (3rd longest in the nation). The Tigers rank 24th nationally in defensive efficiency and have held every opponent but 1 to less than 70 points. While we don’t expect Clemson to shut down this UK offense, they will do enough defensively to slow them down a make them uncomfortable in the half court. The Tigers offense is good enough to stay in this one as well ranking in the top 20 nationally in 3 point FG% and they shoot over 50% from the field at home. Kentucky has a huge game on deck vs Gonzaga so they could be peaking ahead. We like Clemson to pull the upset at home.

ASA NBA play on: NY Knicks -4.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - This game has NBA Emirates Cup implications as the Knicks need to win to get in, the Magic can win or lose by less than 30-points to make it in. Clearly it means more for New York. The Knicks have been at home and are coming off a blowout win over the Pelicans 118-85. After a slow start, the Knicks are starting to figure out their new rotations with KAT and Bridges. The Magic have been a huge surprise this season and have done it mainly without their best player in Banchero who has missed several weeks with an injury. Orlando is very good defensively but struggles on the offensive end of the court. Even though they have a better overall record at 15-7 SU compared to NY’s 12-8 SU record, the Knicks have the better eDIFF of +6.6 vs. +5.9. The Magic are 6-7 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -0.9ppg. New York is 6-2 SU at home with an average plus/minus of +14.1ppg. We like New York big in this one.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Colorado -16 over Pacific, Monday at 9 PM ET - Pacific comes in with a 5-4 record but their wins have come against 3 teams ranked 234th or lower and 2 non Division 1 teams (Jessup & Life Pacific). In their 3 games so far this season vs top 200 opponents, they’ve lost all 3 by an average of 21 points. In their 2 games vs very similar competition to tonight’s opponent Colorado, they lost by 22 vs Arkansas and by 35 vs Missouri. The Tigers are not a good shooting team ranking 255th in eFG% and 331st in 3 point FG% and that’s 4 of their 7 Division 1 opponents ranking outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. We think Pacific will struggle offensively vs the Buffs on the road here. Colorado should have an edge to them tonight after getting blown out by a very good Iowa State team in their most recent game last Wednesday. The Buffs beat UConn the night before that loss so they may have been a bit flat. CU has already faced 3 teams at home in a similar rating range as Pacific (Eastern Washington, Cal State Fullerton, and Harvard) and they won those games by 20, 30, and 22 points respectively. The Buffs have averaged 84 PPG in their 4 home games and we don’t see Pacific keeping up in this game.

#782 ASA PLAY ON Wichita State -1.5 over Minnesota, Thursday at 12 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Kissimmee, Florida. Minnesota has pretty much a new roster from last season (4 new starters and 5 of their top 7 players are new) and they have yet to play a game away from Williams Arena in Minneapolis. Despite playing all home games, this Gopher team hasn’t impressed. They lost at home vs North Texas and have a number of very close wins vs inferior competition. They beat Central Michigan (5th rated team in the MAC) on Monday by 3, beat Nebraska Omaha (8th rated team in the Summit League) by 4, and they came from double digits down to beat Yale by 3 points. Despite playing at home, Minnesota has not shot the ball well at all ranking 235th in eFG%, 244th in 3 points percentage (30%) and they make only 63% of their FT’s. We don’t expect those numbers to improve in their first road game vs a Wichita State team that is 5-0 and ranks in the top 85 in defensive efficiency and top 45 defending the arc. The Shockers have played a formidable schedule to date with 4 of their 5 opponents ranked inside the top 150. Minnesota has played only 2 teams ranked inside the top 150 (1-1 record) and 3 teams ranked outside the top 200. Wichita brings 3 starters back from last year and 60% of their minutes return which we factor in heavily early in the season. They don’t turn the ball over very much (12% which is 4th least in the country) and they get to the FT line a lot (26% of their points from the stripe). When they get there, they make them at a 76% clip which could be huge in what is projected to be a close game. Unlike Minnesota, the Shockers have played 2 games away from home this year beating Western Kentucky (4th rated team in CUSA) by 7 and they rolled a solid St Louis team by 25 points in Kansas City. The Gophs are the worst team in the Big 10 this year and we like Wichita to get the win and cover early on Thanksgiving Day.

ASA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -10 vs. Atlanta Hawks – 7:10 PM ET - The Cavs are 17-1 and currently 10-0 SU at home on the season. The Cavs are winning at home by an average of +14.7ppg this season and only 2 of those 10 home wins have come by less than 10-points. The Hawks are on a 3-game losing streak and are 3-6 SU away this season with a negative average point differential of minus -6.9ppg. Going back to the start of last season the Hawks have the worst road spread record in the NBA at 18-32 ATS with an average +/- of minus 6.1ppg. The Cavs beat the Hawks 3 of four games last season with the lone loss being a meaningless game in March. Cleveland won the 3 games by an average of 17.3ppg. The Cavs last four home games have been decided by +14, +28, +14 and +18. The Hawks last two road games have been losses to the Bulls and Warriors by -14 and -23. We like Cleveland to send a message to the Hawks tonight in the first game of the back-to-back series as these team meet again on Friday.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3 vs. Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - This is a Cup game and will have more meaning than a normal regular season game as the Rockets are 2-0 in Cup play, the T’Wolves are 1-1 and behind Houston in pool play. Minnesota has underachieved this season and stands 8-8 SU as they continue to adjust to a new lineup without Karl Anthony Towns. I’ll be honest, I’m not sold on Julius Randall long-term for the Wolves, but we’ll have to wait and see. Regardless, we like Minnesota big here at home against a Houston team that has faced a very weak schedule to get to 12-6 SU. Again, despite a schedule disparity, the Rockets with a winning record have a +8.6 eDIFF differential, compared to Minnesota who is +2.1 in eDIFF, yet are .500. Houston is starting to see some chinks in their armor as Jalen Green’s shooting is regressing after a hot start to the season. Green takes the most shots for the Rockets, but he makes just 38.2% of his field goal attempts. That coincided with the Rockets Offensive Efficiency ratings dropping from 1.128 to 1.106PPP in their last five games. Minnesota is 10th in OEFF on the season with the 4th best EFG% numbers in the NBA. Minnesota is coming off a close loss in Boston which was one of their better overall games of the season and we expect that momentum to carry over here. Minnesota is 5-2 SU at home this season and 38-18 SU dating back to the start of last season with an average +/- of +7.4ppg. The Wolves beat this Rockets team 3 times last season with all three margins by more than tonight’s spread. Lay it with Minnesota.

#618 ASA PLAY ON Samford -10.5 over North Dakota State, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - We’re not sure NDSU can keep up on the road in this one. Samford averages over 90 PPG and their lowest point total this season was 75 and that was an 8 point loss @ Michigan State who ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs have scored at least 86 points in every other game this season. At home this offense has been lethal averaging 96 PPG in their last 21 home games dating back to the start of last season. In this game they are facing a North Dakota State defense that is allowing opponents to shoot 49% in their 3 road games this season, they rank 313th in defensive efficiency and 277th in eFG% allowed. On offense the Bison are not a great shooting team ranking outside the top 200 in both 2-point FG% and 3-point FG%. NDSU has hit only 32% of their triples this season yet they take a lot of them averaging 28 three point attempts per game. We don’t see them having success from deep here vs a Samford defense that has held their opponents to just 28% from beyond the arc. The way to beat the Bulldogs is by creating turnovers and hitting the offensive glass, two weaknesses of Samford. The problem in this game is, NDSU is last in the nation at creating turnovers and they aren’t a good offensive rebounding team (319th). Samford’s Hanna Center is a very tough place to play and long travel for NDSU. The Bulldogs have won 41 of their last 44 home games and they pick up an easy win tonight.

#879 ASA PLAY ON Auburn -3.5 over Iowa State, Monday at 9 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral site in Hawaii.  Both teams step into this game undefeated but Auburn has tested themselves early playing the much tougher schedule.  The Tigers have already faced 4 teams in the top 190 including Houston (#1 team in the nation per KenPom) and they topped the Cougars in Houston.  ISU, on the other hand, has faced the 364th most difficult schedule (per KenPom) with the teams they’ve faced so far ranking 364th, 360th, and 235th.  All those games were at home as well so the Cyclones will be playing in unfamiliar territory for the first time this season.  Despite playing a tough slate to date, Auburn ranks in the top 5 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They put up 74 points in a Houston defense that hasn’t allowed more than 45 points in any of their other games.  The Tigers lead the nation in eFG% and 2 point FG% while averaging 87 PPG.  Auburn has better eFG% numbers on both offense and defense despite the fact that ISU’s 3 opponents have a combined record of 0-14 vs Division 1 teams this season.  We’ll lay the small number with Auburn on Monday.

#838 ASA PLAY ON North Texas -6.5 over Oregon State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Rough situation for Oregon State who is playing their first road game of the season after losing at home to archrival Oregon on Thursday. The Beavers were 6.5 point home dogs in that game and lost 78-75 blowing a double digit 2nd half lead in the process. Now they head out on the road where they have a terrible 2-31 SU record in true road games since the start of the 2021 season. Their opponent, North Texas, is a veteran team with an 8 man rotation of all juniors and seniors. This is a tough team that plays a slow pace and outstanding defense (38th in 3 point FG defense & 52nd in defensive efficiency). The Mean Green are 4-1 on the season and they’ve played a much tougher schedule than OSU (79th SOS compared to 320th for Oregon State). They are undefeated at home and have won 38 of their last 46 games at the Super Pit in Denton, TX. UNT has better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, they shoot the 3 at a higher percentage, they are one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (14th) and they turn teams over at a 21% rate (67th). They already have a win @ Minnesota and this is a big time home game for the Mean Green. Lay it.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic -5.5 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 PM ET - We have learned our lesson of fading the Magic and will back them here against the Hornets as a road favorite. Looking at the Hornets recent schedule we see they were +2-point home dog to the Piston and +4 at home against the Bucks. Neither the Pistons or Bucks rank as high as the Magic in our power rankings. Orlando has the 3rd best Efficiency Differential in the NBA at +4.1. The biggest difference between these two teams is defensively as the Magic allow just 1.061-points per possession (3rd) compared to the Hornets who allow 1.160PPP (19th). Charlotte is a few spots ahead of the Magic in terms of OEFF but it’s marginal. Orlando has won 8 of their last nine games overall with 6 of those wins coming by double digits. Charlotte will be without starting PF Grant Williams tonight, which is significant considering the multiple injuries they already have. These two teams met earlier in November and the Magic won, going away 114-89. We like the Magic by 10+ tonight.

ASA play on LA Lakers -4.5 vs. Denver Nuggets – 10:40 PM ET - This has become a heated rivalry in the NBA, and to be honest, the Nuggets have dominated the Lakers with a 9-1 SU record the last ten meetings. Denver has eliminated the Lakers from the playoffs two straight years. LA catches the Nuggets off a game last night against the Mavericks in Denver. The Nuggets were down by as many as 24-points in that game, battled back and took a lead in the 4th Q, only to lose by 3-points. The Lakers meanwhile were home resting following a loss on Thursday at home to the Magic. LA is now 7-1 SU on their home court with an average +/- of +7.3ppg. When betting on the Lakers its always important to know if their star players are going to play or show up for a game which will be the case tonight in this revenge spot against Denver. The Nuggets expended a ton of energy last night and will have a tough time getting back up for this game in Los Angeles.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +9.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The O/U on this game is very low at 206.5 which makes the points available in this game even more attractive than normal. First off, the Pistons will be a man short tonight with Cade Cunningham out with an injury. Typically, when a team loses an important piece like Cunningham, the player filling in for him rises to the occasion in that first game. The Pistons will insert Malik Beasley into the starting lineup who has been playing well off the bench averaging 15.5ppg, 3.2rpg and 1.6apg. Detroit is much better this season with a 7-10 SU record and an average margin of victory of minus -1.2ppg. That number is significantly better than the -9.1ppg differential they had last season. Detroit is 11th in defensive efficiency rating and hold teams to an average of 111.6ppg. Of the Pistons 10 losses this season only 3 have come by more than 10-points. Orlando is playing really well right now, but they are also coming off a tough 3-game West Coast Road trip and an upset win over the Lakers in their most recent game. The Magic are 10-7 SU with an average +/- of +3.6ppg. In a low scoring game we will grab the points with the live underdog.

#842 ASA PLAY ON Arizona -1 over Duke, Friday at 10:30 PM ET - Arizona is coming off a 103-88 loss at Wisconsin but they’ve had a full week to let that stew and get ready for this game vs Duke. In that loss, the Wildcats shot 38% from field, 17% from 3 (4 of 23) and made 28 of 40 FT’s. Wisconsin shot 48% overall, 44% from 3 and 41 of 47 FT’s. Arizona destroyed the Badgers on the boards 44 to 27 and we expect them to have the advantage on the glass again tonight but they should shoot MUCH better at home. Duke is a very young team with 3 freshmen in their starting line up and they are playing their first true road game of the season. Their only game this season played away from Cameron Indoor Stadium was vs Kentucky in Atlanta and the Blue Devils lost that game 77-72. Kentucky is solid but they have an entirely new roster and a new head coach so they are figuring things out early in the season. Duke now makes they long travel west for the first road game vs an Arizona team that is almost unbeatable at home winning 51 of their last 54 home games. Not that Duke is looking past Arizona, but they do have another huge game on deck vs Kansas. We think this inexperience Blue Devil team will be very good but may take some time to figure things out, especially on the road early in the season. Zona has had a week to think about their poor effort @ Wisconsin and we like them to get the home win and cover on Friday night.

#818 ASA TOP PLAY ON Southern Indiana +3.5 over South Dakota, Friday at 8 PM ET - Tough spot for South Dakota who just played @ Western Michigan on Wednesday night and now on the road 2 days later. They beat WMU 80-76 thanks in part to 8 more FT’s made but the Coyotes got creamed on the boards 53 to 38. The Broncos shot only 18% from deep (4 of 22) so with that stat and the extra FT’s made, South Dakota was a bit fortunate to come away with the win. They were favored by 2.5 on the road in that game and now 2 nights later they are favored by 4 (opening number) on the road vs a team that is power rated higher than Western Michigan. We can’t expect a team that has been terrible on the road (South Dakota is 5-24 SU on the road since the start of the 2022 season) to not only win back to back road games, but win this one by more than 4 points. Southern Indiana has had a full week off to get ready for this one and while they are 1-4 on the season, some of their losses have been pretty solid if that’s a thing. They lost @ DePaul (who is currently undefeated) in OT and lost to a very solid mid major program, Bucknell, also in OT. This is just their 2nd home game of the season and the Eagles have to feel they have a great shot to get a home win here. Neither team has been good defensively (both outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency) but Southern Indiana has shot the 3 ball much better (37% to 29% for South Dakota) and they are the better FT shooting team (74% to 65% for South Dakota). We look for this veteran USI team (6 upperclassmen in their top 7) to pick up a win tonight and even if they don’t, we can’t see South Dakota winning this one by margin. Take the points.

ASA top play on Brooklyn Nets +6 at Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - Despite being a dominant player in the NBA (when he plays), It’s become evident that Joel Embiid is a cancer on any roster. The Sixers are 2-12 SU this season, 3-11 ATS and don’t compete on a nightly basis. Philly has the 4th worse Efficiency Differential at -9.1 compared to Brooklyn who has an eDIFF of -3.1. Consider this, the Nets have been +8.5 and +10 at New York recently and are now catching +6-points at Philadelphia? The feisty Nets are 10-4-1 ATS this season and have been competitive in road losses at New York by 10 and 2-points, at Cleveland by 5 and Boston by 4-points all in the last month. The 76ers have one home win this season over the Charlotte Hornets by 2-points in OT. Brooklyn beat this Sixers team twice last season and can easily win this road date tonight. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4.5 vs Orlando Magic, 10:30 pm ET - The Magic are in a tough scheduling spot here with this being the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days. They are coming off a loss last night to the Clippers 93-104 and trailed by as many as 18-points in that game. The Magic have gotten off to a solid 9-7 SU start and are winning with their defense. The Magic rank 2nd in Defensive Efficiency allowing just 1.046 points per possession. Orlando’s offense has struggled though, ranking 25th in Offensive Efficiency. A tired Magic defense will have a tough time slowing down the Lakers offense that is 4th in points per possession at 1.184 and has scored 120 or more points in 4 of their last five games. Los Angeles has added a viable perimeter scoring option in Dalton Knecht who gives them the 3-point threat they desperately needed. The Lakers are 8th in team EFG% compared to the Magic who rank 25th in that stat category. Yes, the Lakers defense is not good, but this is a game where they can simply outscore a tired opponent. Orlando is 15-16 ATS their last 31 when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of -7.5ppg. Lastly, when we take a closer look at the Magic’s road results we see they have a 1-6 SU record on the road against similar competition to the Lakers. Overall, the Magic have a negative road point differential of minus -6.1ppg, the Lakers home differential is an average of +8.4ppg.

#728 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Pick'em over Memphis, Thursday at 10 PM ET - This is a tough situational spot for Memphis. They make the long travel to San Francisco, and they leave right after this game for Hawaii and face National Champ UConn on Monday in the Maui Invitational. On top of that this is a late start at 10 PM ET. The Tigers may not be fully focused here and if not, they will lose this game in our opinion. The Dons were a solid 23-11 last season and they bring back a bunch of their key players from that team with 3 starters back and 4 of their top 6 scorers from last season. Nearly 60% of their minutes return. This is a huge game for USF vs a national brand type team with Memphis coming to town so this veteran squad (4 seniors in the starting line up) will be fully focused. Memphis is talented but they bring nearly a completely new team to the court this season with 7 of their top 8 players coming from the transfer portal. We think this team will have their ups and downs with a below average coach, Penny Hardaway, at the helm. Especially in tough situations like this. Memphis has hit nearly 50% of their 3 point shots so far this season and that has to regress on the road vs a very good defensive team. USF ranks 23rd in eFG% allowed and in the top 70 in defensive efficiency (ranked in top 40 in defensive efficiency last season). While this is not the Dons actual home court (Golden State Warriors home court in San Francisco) they do play here a few times during the season so they are used to this venue. In games played at their home court and here last season USF was 15-2 with their only 2 losses coming vs Gonzaga (27-8 record last season) and St Mary’s (26-8 record last season). We think San Francisco has a solid coaching edge here as well with Chris Gerlufsen sporting a very good 47-15 record in his 3 seasons here. We’ll call for USF to get the outright win on Thursday.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +8 at Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - The Hawks are playing above expectations this season in large part because of better defensive play. They aren’t great defensively by any means as they allow 1.163-points per possession, but that is lower than the 1.194PPP they gave up last season. They rank 22nd in DEFF this season after ranking 26th a year ago. Dyson Daniels for the Hawks is a big reason for the defensive uptick for the Hawks with 44 steals to start the season, most in the league. Atlanta has a negative point differential of minus -3.4ppg and have been ultra-competitive in recent weeks with 5 of their last seven games decided by 5-points or less. In their last five road games they have impressive wins over the Celtics and Kings along with a victory in New Orleans and two close losses at Portland and Detroit. One aspect I don’t like regarding this bet is the fact that the Warriors are coming off a loss. Golden State is 19-19 ATS their last 38 when coming off a loss with an average margin of +3.2ppg. The Hawks/Warriors have split the last four games and only one of those games was decided by more than tonight’s point spread. Grab the points with Atlanta.