Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-04-24 | Bucs +9.5 v. Chiefs | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Bucs +9.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - KC has won 13 straight games dating back to last season but only 3 of those have come by more than 8 points and their average YPG margin during that stretch is just +45. They are the king of winning close games and with this line sitting near double digits, we are on Tampa. The Bucs are 4-4 on the season yet they have a point differential of +22 and a YPP differential of +0.1. KC is undefeated yet their point differential is just +50 and their YPP differential is pretty comparable to TB at +0.3. KC’s offense has been pretty average this season (17th in YPP) which is why they haven’t been pulling away from teams. Mahomes ranks just 24th in QBR and he doesn’t have many high level weapons at his disposal this year. They are already missing RB Pacheco and WR’s Rice, Brown, Moore and now Shuster is most likely out for this game. Tampa has their offensive injury problems as well but they still put up 26 points on 432 yards last week vs Atlanta with their key WR’s out. The Bucs can score (4th in the NFL at 29.4 PPG) and they know how to keep drives alive with a 52.5% third down conversion rate (1st in the NFL). KC’s offense hasn’t topped 28 points the entire season and facing a team that can score will make it tough for them to win this one by double digits. Windy conditions are expected in KC Monday night which may favor the better running team. TB averages 5.1 YPC this season (6th) while KC is averaging only 3.9 YPC (29th). We’ll call for the Bucs to keep this one close. Take the points. |
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11-03-24 | Colts v. Vikings OVER 46.5 | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
#465/466 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 46.5 Points - Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings at 8:20 PM ET - Indy’s offense gets a shot in the arm here with Joe Flacco starting at QB. There has been a big difference in this offense when Flacco starts and plays the majority of the game the Colts are averaging 27 PPG. That includes games vs Tennessee and Pittsburgh, 2 top 10 defenses. When Richardson starts and plays the majority of the game for Indianapolis they are averaging just 19 PPG. Flacco completes 66% of his passes with 7 TD’s and 1 interception. Richardson has completed 44% of his passes with 4 TD’s and 7 interceptions. Huge upgrade in the passing game Flacco under center to go along with an Indy running game that ranks 11th in the NFL. They should have success vs a Minnesota defense that is trending down allowing at least 29 points in 3 of their last 4 games. The Vikings offense is averaging 27 PPG on the season on 6.1 YPP (8th in the NFL). They are facing an Indianapolis defense that ranks 28th in total D, can’t stop the run (30th in run defense) and is allowing opposing QB’s to complete just over 68% of their passes (27th in the league). They have held a few recent opponents to a lower scoring output, however those offenses rank near the bottom of the NFL (Tennessee 28th in scoring & Miami 32nd in scoring). Minnesota also gets a huge boost offensively in this game with one of the top TE’s in the NFL, TJ Hockenson, returning from an injury. At home the Minnesota offense has been very good averaging 29 PPG this season on 6.4 YPP. Since 2020, the Vikings have gone 17-5-1 to the Over as home favorites if the total is less than 51 points which is a key NFL number. Another Over here. |
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11-03-24 | Bears v. Cardinals OVER 44.5 | 9-29 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
#460/470 ASA PLAY ON Over 44.5 Points - Chicago Bears vs Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Two fast paced teams in this game (6th and 9th in seconds per play) should give us plenty of opportunities to put up points. Chicago’s defense has solid numbers and is coming off a game where they allowed only 18 points to Washington, however that score was extremely misleading. The Commanders blew opportunity after opportunity to get into the endzone and settle for 4 FG’s despite rolling up almost 500 yards on 6.7 YPP. Prior to playing Washington and allowing big numbers in the stat sheet, the Bears hadn’t played a single offense ranked inside the top 10 in YPP and the average of those 6 prior offenses was 19th in YPP. Arizona ranks 9th in YPP and should have success here. On the other side, Arizona’s defense is not good. They rank 28th in YPP allowed and 27th in total defense. They’ve allowed at least 20 points in 5 of their last 6 games and the one game they did not was vs the Chargers who averaged 6.2 YPP in the game but settled for 5 FG’s and fumbled at the Arizona 1-yard line. The Bears offense wasn’t great last week vs a vastly improved Washington defense, however Chicago showed some real progress leading into that game. In their previous 3 games the Bears were ranked in the top 10 in YPP and YPG offensively while averaging 32 PPG. We expect them to get back on track vs a poor defense on Sunday. Perfect conditions for scoring in Arizona on Sunday and the Cards have topped this total (44.5 points) in 4 of their last 5 games. With this line around a pick-em both teams projected total is right around 22 points. We expect both to eclipse that. Take the Over. |
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11-03-24 | Jaguars v. Eagles -7 | 23-28 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 3 m | Show | |
#476 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -7 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Eagles are rolling on both sides of the ball right now winning 4 of their last 5 games. They’ve outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents by YPP margins of +3.0, +2.9, +1.9, and +1.4. That’s impressive. Last week they dominated a solid Cincinnati team on the road 37-17 outgaining them 397 to 280. Over the last 2 weeks, the Eagles have outscored their opponents 63-20. Not only is their offense trending up, the Philly defense has played lights out over the last month or so. They have not allowed more than 17 points since September and over their last 3 games the Eagles lead the NFL allowing only 3.9 YPP. They’ve done this while mainly playing on the road. 4 of their last 5 games have come away from home and they’ve played only 1 home game since mid September. The Jags are in a really rough spot here. This will be their 9th straight game with no bye, they were in London for 2 weeks, came home and lost to GB on a last second FG, and now off to Philadelphia. On top of that, Jacksonville is really banged up right now especially on offense. Their top 3 WR’s may miss this one (Thomas, Kirk, and Davis) and there is a good chance that 2 of their starting Oline will be out as well. On top of that, they just traded their best offensive lineman, LT Robinson, to the Vikings this week. Has this team waved the white flag? We think they will struggle offensively vs this surging Eagle defense. On the other side of the ball, Philly is averaging over 6.0 YPP their last 3 games and facing a Jags defense that ranks in the bottom 5 in total defense, YPP allowed, and scoring defense with Jacksonville allowing a TD 30.6% of opponent possessions, 31st in the league. This smells like a potential blowout for the Eagles. Lay it. |
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11-02-24 | Pittsburgh v. SMU -7 | Top | 25-48 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
#366 ASA TOP PLAY ON SMU -7 over Pittsburgh, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Fishy line here with SMU favored by a full TD over an undefeated Pitt team. The Panthers, despite being undefeated, are trending down in our opinion. Their offense simply hasn’t played well for the last 6 straight quarters. A few weeks ago they faced Cal in a perfect spot for Pitt at home and struggled to win that game 17-15 (we were on Pitt in that game). They didn’t score a single point in the 2nd half of that game and were held to less than 100 yards after halftime. Last week, coming off a bye, if you simply looked at the final score you would think Pitt was back in stride offensively scoring 41 points vs Syracuse. Not so fast. 21 of their 41 points came on 3 interception returns for TD’s by the Panthers. The fact is, they had only 217 total yards and were held to less than 5.0 YPP in that win. Now they go on the road for just the 2nd time since September 7th to face the best team they’ve seen this season. SMU is 7-1 on the year and playing really well right now. Their only loss was by 3 points vs BYU who stands at 8-0. Last week it looks like they squeaked by @ Duke winning 28-27 but the Mustangs dominated the stats (+1.2 YPP margin). SMU had a horrible -6 turnover margin in last week’s game @ Duke and still won on the road which is extremely impressive. The Stangs are coming off a 3-0, 3 game road trip and are back at home for the first time since September. They have scored an average of 50 PPG over their last 10 home games which dates back to the start of last season. SMU starting QB Jennings was a question mark early in the week but it looks like he’ll be a full go on Saturday. We like SMU by more than a TD in this one. |
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11-02-24 | Texas A&M v. South Carolina +3.5 | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
#390 ASA PLAY ON South Carolina +3.5 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Perfect situational spot for a very good South Carolina team. The Gamecocks are off a bye and catching A&M the week after a huge home win over LSU. The Aggies have been getting very comfortable at home having played only 1 road game since mid September. That road game was vs Mississippi State, the worst team in the SEC, and even though the Aggies won by 10, they were outgained by the Bulldogs in that game. In fact, despite their perfect 5-0 SEC record, A&M has been outgained in 3 of their last 4 games. The Gamecocks are 4-3 on the season but could easily be 7-1. They had two tight, down to the wire losses vs high level opponents, Alabama & LSU, losing those games by a combined 5 points. SC outgained Alabama on the road but missed a 2 point conversion with under a minute to go which would have tied the game. They led LSU with just over a minute to go before the Tigers scored the game winning TD. Just a few plays go different in those games and South Carolina is sitting at 7-1. What’s the line here if that’s the case? SC favored for sure. Carolina has played the 3rd toughest schedule in the nation yet their YPP & YPG differential is very similar to A&M’s who’s played an easier slate. We have this game power rated at right around a pick-em so we’ll grab the value with South Carolina +3.5 |
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11-02-24 | Wyoming v. New Mexico OVER 60.5 | Top | 49-45 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
#385/386 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points Wyoming vs New Mexico, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We’re getting some value on this total due to recent results (last weekend) from these 2 teams. This total sits at 60 to 61 points as of this writing on Friday and our power ratings say this total should be 66. NM games are averaging 73.5 total points and that includes last week’s game where they lost to CSU 17-6. That game was very misleading as the Lobos put up over 450 yards on 6.0 YPP but had 4 turnovers. 3 of those turnovers were inside CSU territory taking away potential points for the Lobos. The 2 teams combined for almost 800 yards and both averaged 6.0 YPP which should result in a much higher scoring game. Prior to last week’s game New Mexico had scored at least 50 points in 3 straight games. They rank in the top 10 nationally in total offense and they play fast (14th nationally in offensive plays run per game). They should have big time success vs this Wyoming defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, YPP allowed, rush defense, AND pass defense. The Wyoming offense has poor overall numbers this season, but they are definitely trending up. After not topping 17 points in any of their first 4 games, the Cowboys have now reached at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Last week vs a Utah State defense that ranks almost identical to this New Mexico defense (those teams rank 132nd and 131st in total defense), Wyoming put up almost 500 yards on 6.4 YPP. They scored 25 points but it should have been more as they settled for 4 FG’s (6 total FG’s in the game between the 2 teams) and fumbled deep inside USU territory. The Cowboys were one of the slower paced teams in the country last year but under their new regime they are playing much faster this season. The weather looks perfect in Albuquerque on Saturday afternoon with temps on the 60’s and very little wind. These teams have combined to play 16 games this season and 11 of those have gone Over the total. Both defenses rank outside the top 100 in pretty much every key category as we mentioned. Last year these 2 combined to score 61 points, yet both defenses had much better numbers than this year’s stop units. The projected score on this game based on the point spread (NM -7 to -8 range) is New Mexico 34.5, Wyoming 26.5. We’re confident both top those projected totals in this game. Over is the play. |
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11-01-24 | Georgia State v. Connecticut UNDER 48.5 | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 48 m | Show | |
#315/316 ASA PLAY ON Under 48.5 Points - Georgia State vs UConn, Friday at 7 PM ET - UConn’s defense is locked in right now allowing a total of 70 points over their last 5 games (14 PPG). They rank 17th nationally in YPP allowed and they’ve allowed more than 23 points only once this season. That defensive success shouldn’t change here vs a Georgia State offense that is averaging only 22 PPG (107th nationally). The Panthers have topped 21 points only twice this season vs FBS opponents which isn’t overly impressive as 4 of the 6 FBS defenses they’ve faced rank below 100th in total defense. This will be the best defense Georgia State (76th in total offense) has faced this season. On the other side of the ball, UConn has struggled offensively scoring 22, 20, and 17 points (offensive points) over their last 3 games. They are averaging just 328 YPG in their last 3 that includes 2 opponents whose defense ranks outside the top 90. The Huskies last 3 games have averaged 37 total points and with windy weather expected on Friday night, we look for a lower scoring game. Under is the call. |
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10-31-24 | Texans v. Jets -2 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 42 h 37 m | Show |
#312 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets -2 over Houston Texans, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Jets have lost 5 straight both SU and ATS but this team is much better than their 2-6 record. We’re getting some value because of that. The Jets were just favored by 7 @ New England and Houston played @ New England a few weeks ago and was laying 6.5. That tells us the Jets should be favored by a FG here. 4 of NY’s 5 losses have come by 6 points or less and they were ahead or tied in the 4th quarter in 3 of those games. NY has a positive YPG and YPP differential and their defense ranks 4th in the NFL (total defense) and 2nd in YPP allowed. This team is just happy to be back at home as they’ve been on the road for 3 of their last 4 games. Their most recent home game was a 23-20 loss vs a very good Buffalo team and the Jets outgained the Bills in that game both overall yardage and YPP. They are off an embarrassing loss @ New England last week that should give them some extra motivation coming into this game. That was a flukey win for the Pats as the Jets dominated outgaining New England by 2.0 YPP. In that game the Jets became the first team in NFL history to lose a game despite scoring 20+ points, holding their opponent to 250 or fewer yards, and not turning the ball over. Houston is coming off a big 3 point division win over the Colts and this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. The Texans are 6-2 on the season but they’ve been far from dominant with a point differential of just +9 on the season and both of their losses have come on the road. The Houston offense is averaging just 319 YPG on the road on 4.9 YPP which is the 10th worst mark on the road in the NFL. QB CJ Stroud QB rating, completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, etc… road splits are all much lower than his home splits. Now on a short week vs a very good defense, we think this one sets up very nicely for the Jets to pick up a home win. |
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10-30-24 | Jacksonville State +2.5 v. Liberty | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
#307 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State +2.5 over Liberty, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’ve been waiting for this spot for a few weeks now looking forward to jumping on Jacksonville State as a dog. Liberty has been playing with fire all season long winning a number of close games vs poor opponents and it came back to bite them in their most recent game. That was a loss @ Kennesaw State who many, including us, had power rated as the worst team in FBS. That loss pushed this number down lower than it would have been but we still like JSU getting points here. In their loss vs Kennesaw, a team that JSU beat 63-24, Liberty allowed the Owls to score 27 points on 5.2 YPP. That may not seem like a big deal but KSU was averaging just 3.7 YPP entering the game (last in the nation) and they were averaging just 13 PPG. The Flames were undefeated entering that game but had really struggled to beat teams they should handle easily including NM State and FIU, among others. They continue to be priced according to their success last season but they simply aren’t anywhere near that caliber this year. The Flames are 1-5 ATS failing to cover the spread by a combined 80 points (almost 2 TD’s per game). Both teams have played an easy schedule to date but while Liberty is struggling to win by margin along with losing to what might be the worst team in the country, JSU has won and covered their last 4 games by margins of 37, 39, 41, and 22 points. The 2 common opponents this year are Kennesaw (JSU won by 39 / Liberty lost by 3) and NM State (JSU won by 41 / Liberty won by 6). Jacksonville St QB Huff is a little banged up but we’re hearing he’ll be OK for this one. His back up Smothers was originally at Nebraska and has solid experience if needed. This game would have set up perfectly for us if Liberty wouldn’t have lost to Kennesaw, however we still think the better team is getting points so we’ll stick with it. |
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10-29-24 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas State -4 | 23-17 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
#306 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -4 over UL Lafayette, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - Texas State is coming off an embarrassing effort @ ODU on October 19th losing 24-14 as a 10 points road chalk. They came into the game averaging 39 PPG (15th in the country) and they had scored at least 28 points in every game leading up to ODU. Just a terrible performance from a high level offense that may have been peaking ahead to this huge home match up vs ULL. That loss dropped the Bobcats to 4-3 on the season and this is a due or die game facing a Louisiana team that sits 1 game ahead of them in the Sun Belt West. Louisiana is 6-1 overall and 3-0 in Sun Belt play but Texas State has a better overall and conference point differential despite having 1 loss in league play and 3 losses overall. If we subtract their games vs FCS opponents (they’ve each played one) 4 of ULL’s 5 wins have come by 10 points or less while Texas State’s 3 wins vs FBS opponents have come by 39, 32 and 21 points. The Bobcats have played the slightly more difficult schedule yet have the better YPP differential and their defense ranks in the top 20 nationally allowing only 4.9 YPP. This is a game that Texas State already had tabbed as their most important game of the season months ago. Last year they lost @ Louisiana 34-30 but led by 9 points with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game and blew it. They lost on the road in that one despite outgaining ULL by over 100 yards and only punted once in the game. We like Texas State to bounce back from last week’s disaster game and win this one by more than 4 points. |
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10-28-24 | Giants +6 v. Steelers | 18-26 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
#291 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +6 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re catching the NYG at the bottom of the market right now after getting rolled in their last 2 games by combined score of 45-10 vs Bengals & Eagles which has led to some line value here. Prior to that the Giants had won 2 of their previous 3 games topping Seattle and Cleveland, both as underdogs. New York has been better on the road this season with both of their wins coming away from home. Their only other road game was a tight 21-18 loss vs a solid Washington team. After their most embarrassing performance of the season, a 28-3 loss vs Philly, we expect NY to bounce back and play well this week. Pittsburgh is overvalued right now coming off 2 easy wins over Las Vegas and NYJ. However, those scores were very misleading. The YPP stats in those 2 wins were both close to even but Pittsburgh benefited from a +5 turnover margin in those 2 games combined. Despite their 5-2 record, the Steelers have a negative YPP differential on the season. The Steelers under Tomlin have been great as an underdog but not so much as a favorite. Especially at home where they are 18-25 ATS their last 43 as home favorites and 3-10 their last 13 as a home chalk of 6 or more points. Too many points and we’ll call for a tight game. |
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10-27-24 | Bears v. Commanders +3 | 15-18 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
#276 ASA PLAY ON Washington Commanders +3 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This line was set at -2.5 to -3 in favor of Washington last week and has moved a full 6 points due to Commander QB Daniels most likely out. That’s too much in our opinion. Washington has one of the top back ups in the league in veteran Marcus Mariota (16,000 career passing yards & 95 TDs) who entered in relief last week and threw for over 200 yards and 2 TD’s. Washington OC Kingsbury has proven to be on the of the best in the NFL and will have a solid gameplan set for Mariota and company in this game. The Bears are on a nice little 3 game run, however their opponents during that stretch were LA Rams (when half their offense was out due to injuries), Carolina, and Jacksonville. They haven’t played a true road game in over a month and the Bears are 0-2 SU in their 2 road games @ Indy and @ Houston. Despite their 4-2 record, Chicago has been outgained this season by -0.3 YPP which is 12th worst in the NFL. Their offense ranks 28th in YPP and Washington’s defense seems to be getting more comfortable holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to less than 300 yards. The only team that topped 300 yards during that stretch was Baltimore who has the best offense in the NFL. We look for Washington to rally around the Daniels injury and raise their game for this one as many teams do in this situation. They are 3-0 SU & ATS at home this season and Chicago is in unfamiliar territory laying points on the road for just the 3rd time since the start of the 2020 season. Take Washington. |
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10-27-24 | Bills v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
#280 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks +3.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 4 PM ET - This is a much bigger game for Seattle as everyone in the NFC West is bunched together within 1 game of each other. Buffalo, on the other hand, has a huge lead in the AFC East with a 5-2 record well ahead of all other teams in the division who are 2-4 or worse. The Bills are overvalued in our opinion. Despite their record, they are getting outgained by 20+ YPG on the season. Their easy wins have come vs Jacksonville, Tennessee (with back up QB) and Miami (Tua injured early in that win) who have a combined 5-14 record on the season. They’ve only faced 2 teams this season that currently have a winning record and lost both games vs Baltimore & Houston. The Seahawks got back on track last week after a 3 game losing streak (2 of those losses were vs Detroit and San Francisco) by beating a very solid Atlanta team on the road 34-14. The Seattle defense, which is slowly getting back to healthy, looked very good holding a red hot Falcons offense (who scored 72 points the previous 2 weeks) to just 14 points. The Seahawks might be down WR Metcalf but there is an outside chance he plays and they are getting 2 key DB’s back this week to help the defense. Situational edge to Seattle as well as they had 10 days off prior to facing Atlanta while Buffalo is playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks. Seattle has one of the top home field advantages in the NFL and as a dog at home they’ve covered 19 of their last 26 games (73%). Take the points. |
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10-27-24 | Packers -3.5 v. Jaguars | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
#267 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers -3.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This might be a square bet, but they win too, and the Packers are clearly the superior team in this match up. Something that’s been overlooked this season for Green Bay is their defense and how well they’ve played on that side of the football. With a new system and D-coordinator in place it has taken time for this unit to figure things out. For the season the Packers are allowing 5.1 yards per play which ranks 8th best in the league. In their last three games that number has dipped to 4.6YPP and last week they allowed just 3.4YPP to a Houston offense that is averaging 5.4YPP on the season. The Packers offense ranks 6th in yards per play offensively, 6th in total yards per game at 383, 5th in rushing and 9th in passing YPG. Green Bay is 8th in scoring margin at +6.1PPG and already has road wins against the Rams by 5 and at Tennessee by 16. The Jags just spent two weeks in Europe and will be happy to be home. Maybe even a little distracted. Jacksonville is middle of the pack in most offensive categories ranking 13th in YPP, 16th in total YPG and 21st in scoring at 20.7PPG. Defensively it’s not a good situation for the Jags and their fans. The Jaguars are 27th in yards allowed, 31st in yards per play allowed and opposing QB’s have had their way with this defense passing for 273YPG. The Jags have two wins to their credit, but they’ve come against the Colts and Patriots who rank near the bottom in the NFL. Green Bay is a top 7 team in our ratings. Jacksonville has an average loss margin of -7.0PPG. |
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10-26-24 | Michigan State +4 v. Michigan | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
#155 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +4 over Michigan, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Huge coaching advantage here in our opinion with MSU’s Jonathan Smith (formerly at Oregon State) vs Michigan’s Sherrone Moore. Smith showed his coaching prowess last week coming out of a bye and roasting a good Iowa team 32-20 as a home underdog. To be honest, the score probably shouldn’t have even been that close as Sparty dominated 27 first downs to 12 and 468 total yards to 283 for the Hawkeyes. Meanwhile, a poorly coached Michigan team also came off a bye and lost 21-7 at Illinois as a 3 point favorite. Michigan State is now 4-3 but keep in mind, 2 of their losses came at the hands of Oregon and Ohio State who are currently ranked #1 and #4 in the nation respectively. Their other loss came 23-19 @ Boston College but MSU won the stat sheet in that game but had 4 turnovers. The Wolverines continue to be overvalued living off last year’s success. In fact, they’ve only covered 1 game this season (1-6 ATS) and their 2 wins in Big 10 play have both come at home by just 3 points while their losses were both by double digits. This team could easily be 0-4 in conference play. The Michigan offense is simply bad ranking 120th in total offense and 113th in YPP. They were hoping with Jack Tuttle back under center last week at Illinois the offense would get a jump start. Didn’t happen as they scored only 7 points and Tuttle wasn’t great. These 2 rivals have played nearly identical strength of schedules and MSU has the better stats (MSU +42 YPG and +0.7 YPP / Michigan -19 YPG and +0.0 YPP). This is a huge game for MSU as they’ve lost back to back years on blowout fashion to the Wolverines but they get their chance to make amends here with Michigan way down compared to previous editions. Take the points. |
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10-26-24 | BYU v. Central Florida -130 | Top | 37-24 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
#124 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Florida -130 ON THE MONEYLINE over BYU, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - NOTE – this line is UCF -2.5 but we’re using them on the money line (-130) just to win outright. BYU is ranked in the top 15 yet an underdog vs a UCF team that has a 3-4 record and has lost 4 in a row. Hmmm? This line opened with BYU as a favorite and it flipped and we agree with the move. We were on Oklahoma State +9.5 @ BYU last Friday night and felt that the Cougars were overvalued and still are. The Cowboys led for most of that game and BYU pulled out a late 38-35 win with a TD in the final minute of the game. The Cougars have been quite lucky to be sitting with a perfect 7-0 record. Last week’s win over OSU aside, they were outgained in wins over Kansas State and Baylor and were +3 in turnovers in their win over Arizona. This is their first road game in almost a month and it’s long travel to Orlando. The BYU defense has OK numbers vs the run, however last week facing a mobile QB in the first half (OSU QB Rangel was injured in the 2nd half) they allowed 270 yards rushing on over 7 YPC. OSU starting QB Rangel ran for 77 yards on 5 carries in the first half prior to his injury. We look for BYU to struggle defensively vs a UCF offense that ranks 3rd nationally averaging 280 YPG rushing on 6.0 YPC. The Golden Knights have a mobile QB Brown (transfer from Miami FL) who has started the last 2 games for UCF and rushed for 148 yards. Last week with Brown at the helm, the Knights nearly upset undefeated Iowa State on the road. The Cyclones needed a late TD with 30 seconds left to pick up the 3 point win. UCF rushed for a ridiculous 354 yards vs ISU on over 9.0 YPC. Despite their losing record, Central Florida has a +100 YPG margin and +1.2 YPP margin. BYU is primed to get picked off and this is the spot in our opinion. We like Central Florida. |
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10-26-24 | Kent State v. Western Michigan OVER 60.5 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
#139/140 ASA PLAY ON OVER 60.5 Points – Kent State vs Western Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Both offenses should have lots of success here. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the nation. Kent State ranks dead last in total defense allowing well over 500 YPG and WMU is much better ranking 127th giving up over 450 YPG. Kent has played 6 games this season vs FBS opponents and they’ve allowed at least 37 points in 5 of those games. The only team that didn’t reach that mark was BG last week, who had 27 points but only punted 3 times in 12 offensive possessions (missed FG & shut out on downs a few times). If we subtract their game vs FCS St Francis, the Golden Flashes have allowed 49.7 PPG (dead last in the NCAA). How are they going to slow down this WMU offense who is averaging 42 PPG in conference play (averaging 31.4 PPG overall)? Last week the Broncos put up 48 points and almost 500 yards on a Buffalo defense that was allowing 24.6 PPG entering the game. WMU’s defense, on the other hand, was terrible. The Bulls lit them up for 41 points and 550 total yards. That was a Buffalo offense that ranked 133rd nationally (out of 134 teams) entering the game averaging 244 YPG. Kent’s offensive numbers aren’t good overall this season, however those numbers are very misleading because they were shutout by Tennessee & Penn State, 2 of the top defenses in the nation. In MAC play, this Kent offense has looked solid averaging 25 PPG. They struggled last week vs Bowling Green, the top defense in the MAC and top 30 nationally, but prior to that they scored 30+ on Ball State and EMU. Weather looks good in Kalamazoo on Saturday with decent temps and light winds. These teams have met 5 times since 2012 and they’ve averaged more than 66 total points in those games. Take the Over. |
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10-25-24 | Louisville v. Boston College +7.5 | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 50 m | Show | |
#116 ASA PLAY ON Boston College +7.5 over Louisville, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - The situational spot heavily favors BC here. They are at home after getting rolled @ Virginia Tech last Friday night. So they have had a full week to prepare. Their game vs Virginia Tech was a 28-21 score with less than 12 minutes remaining in the game and Tech sealed it with 2 TD’s in the 4th. It was a terrible performance by a BC defense that was allowing 20.6 PPG (31st nationally) entering the game. We expect them to bounce back in a big way at home on Friday night. The Eagles were +8 in that game @ Virginia Tech and now one week later they are +7 (as of this writing on Tuesday) at home vs Louisville team that power rates almost the exact same as the Hokies. Line value on Boston College. The Cards put in a huge effort last week at home in their most important game of the season vs Miami. Now they must travel on a short week after losing that game 52-45. Louisville was outgained by 1.6 YPP in that loss but benefited from a 100 yard kickoff return to keep it closer than it should have been. The defense was on the field a lot (35 minutes) and gave up nearly 8.0 YPP. The Cardinals have lost 3 of their last 4 games and their wins this season came vs Virginia (by 4 points), Georgia Tech (by 12 points – Louisville was outgained but had 2 defensive TD’s), Jacksonville State, and Austin Peay. Not overly impressive. BC is undefeated at home this season and 14-7-1 ATS in the home dog role since early in the 2017 season. Take the points. |
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10-24-24 | Vikings -3 v. Rams | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
ASA play on Minnesota Vikings -3 at LA Rams – 8:20 PM ET - We are buying on the Vikings to bounce back after the last second loss to the Lions on Sunday. While the Vikings were playing one of the best teams in the NFL, the Rams were facing one of the worst in the LV Raiders. The Rams won a tight game 20-15 and averaged just 5.0YPP against a porous Raiders defense. The Vikings averaged 7.4YPP against a very good Lions defense that allows just 5.5YPP on the season. The Rams still have significant injuries and an offensive line that can’t protect QB Stafford. That will be a major issue against the Vikings Brian Flores and his blitz happy scheme. The Rams allow 2.8 sacks per game and have a sack percentage of 7.87%, both rank 20th in the NFL. Minnesota’s defense is tied for 2nd in the league with 4.0 sacks per game and 8th in sack percentage. Conversely, Sam Darnold of the Vikings won’t be pressured in this game which presents a dangerous situation for the Rams secondary trying to contain Jefferson and Addison. The Rams are averaging just 1.8 sacks per game, 26th in the NFL. If we do a line comparison, the Packers were favored by 3-points here a few weeks ago. The Lions were favored by 5.5-points in Week 1. We would have the Vikings favored by -4.5 points here. Home underdogs on Thursday Night Football have been a wallet-busting bet of late with a 7-17 ATS run dating back 24 games. |
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10-24-24 | Georgia Southern v. Old Dominion UNDER 54.5 | 19-47 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 23 m | Show | |
#113/114 ASA PLAY ON Under 54.5 Points – Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion at 7 PM ET - These 2 defenses don’t have great season long stats, but they’ve been playing lights out as of late. ODU has held each of their last 2 opponents to 14 points and the only 2 teams that have topped 23 points on this defense are Virginia Tech and Coastal Carolina. Last week’s defensive performance vs Texas State was very impressive holding the Bobcats to 14 points (they average 35 PPG – 20th nationally) on just 4.9 YPP (they average 6.4 YPP – 20th nationally). Georgia Southern has held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 23 points or less. The only team since September 1st that has topped 23 points on this Panther defense is Ole Miss, one of the best offensive teams in the country. Last week they completely shut down a James Madison team holding them to 14 points (they average 39 PPG – 10th nationally) on 253 total years (they average 436 YPG – 26th nationally). Both of these offenses rank outside the top 100 in YPP so we’re not expecting either defense to slow up in this one. The tempo stats for the season have both of these teams on the top 40 in seconds per play, however both have really slowed their pace over the last few games with both ranking outside the top 40 over the last 3 games. The Sun Belt teams have faced each other twice, both games in the last 2 seasons, and both went under totaling 37 and 51 points. Under is the call on Thursday. |
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10-23-24 | Middle Tennessee State v. Jacksonville State -20.5 | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show | |
#108 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State -20.5 over MTSU, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Jacksonville State has been the hottest team in CUSA over the last month. They’ve won 3 straight by a combined score of 161 to 44. They’ve outgained those 3 opponents (all comparable in our power ratings to this MTSU team) 1,616 to 866. They’ve won each of those games by at least 37 points and they are healthy coming off a bye week. Now they face a bad MTSU team that we have power rated as the 4th worst team in FBS. The Blue Raiders just played Kennesaw State (who we have rated dead last in FBS) and won a tight game 14-5. The yardage was about dead even in that game but KSU had 2 turnovers (0 for MTSU). Just 2 weeks ago, Jacksonville State beat that Kennesaw State team 63-24 and outgained them by over 300 yards. We don’t see any way this Middle Tennessee offense can keep up in this game. They are averaging just 13.8 PPG (minus their 1 FCS game) and facing a Jacksonville State offense that is putting up an average of 49 PPG over their last 4. We don’t see that changing here as they face an MTSU defense that ranks 129th in total defense, 132nd in YPP allowed, and 130th in scoring defense. The Blue Raiders closest loss this season was by 17 points and the average score in their losses is 44-14. Another blowout on the way Wednesday night. |
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10-21-24 | Ravens v. Bucs OVER 49 | Top | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 1 m | Show |
#475/476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Offense should rule the day (actually night) for this one. These are 2 of the 7 teams in the NFL that are averaging more than 6 YPP with Baltimore leading the league at 6.9. On the other side of the ball, these teams have long had reputations of solid defenses but that is not the case this season. They are both average at best this year with the Bucs ranking 26th in total defense (15th in YPP allowed) while the Ravens are 16th in total defense (23rd in YPP allowed). They each have been susceptible to big plays allowing 8 plays per game of more than 15 yards (tied for 31st out of 32 teams). That’s not a good recipe vs these offenses that have been very explosive. Baltimore is averaging 10 plays every game of more than 15 yards (1st in the NFL) and TB is averaging 8 plays of more than 15 yards (3rd). Both have been excellent on 3rd downs keeping drives alive with the Ravens converting on 3rd down 51% of the time (tops in the NFL) and TB converting 47% (4th). On the other side of the ball, the defenses rank 18th and 21st preventing 3rd down conversions. Baltimore has put up 30, 41, 35, and 28 points in their last 4 games. Tampa has scored at least 30 points in 3 straight games and in 4 of their 6 games this season. The average total points scored in Baltimore games this season is 54.3 (highest in the NFL) and Tampa Bay’s games have averaged 53.2 total points (3rd). The weather looks great in Tampa on Monday night with light winds and temps in the low 70’s. We like both teams to get to at least 24 points and Over is the play. |
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10-20-24 | Jets v. Steelers UNDER 39 | 15-37 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
#473/474 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 39 Points - NY Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The two best units on the field Sunday when these AFC teams square off will be the defenses. The Jets are allowing 4.6 Yards Per Play which is the 3rd lowest YPP number in the NFL. The Steelers aren’t far behind allowing 5.0YPP (7th best). Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in Yards Per Point allowed, the Jets are 15th. These two defenses are 6th and 7th in Red Zone TD’s allowed per game and 2nd/7th in Points Allowed Per Game at 14.3 (Steelers)/ 18 (Jets). Offensively there isn’t a lot of good news for either team. New York is averaging 4.9YPP (24th) while the Steelers average 4.8YPP (27th). The Jets and Steelers have both scored 20 or less points in 4 of six games this season. This line ticked up this week with the news of QB Russell Wilson starting for the Steelers and WR Davante Adams getting traded to the Jets. We don’t feel there will be an upgrade at QB for Pittsburgh as Wilson wasn’t good last season. As far as we know, Davante Adams can’t protect Aaron Rodgers blindside and won’t have an impact on this game as the oddsmakers suggest. Pittsburgh is a strong Under team at home with a 15-21-1 Under record since 2020, 4-7 Unders as a home dog. The Jets are 13-20-1 Under as a road team since 2020. |
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10-20-24 | Titans +9.5 v. Bills | 10-34 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
#455 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +9.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - If you looked at the season long key stats for these 2 teams, you’d have no idea one of them is 4-2 and the other is 1-4. In fact, the team with the 1-4 record has been better in the stat sheet this year. The Titans have a YPP margin of +0.1 and they’ve outgained their opponents by an average of +5 YPG this season. The Bills have a YPP margin of -0.1 and they’ve been outgained by -41 YPG this season. The problem with Tennessee is their turnover situation. They have a -7 turnover margin this year which is 31st in the NFL. If they can avoid the giveaways here, we actually think they have a shot to pull the upset. It’s a great spot to fade Buffalo as they are on a short week off a huge division win on Monday night topping the Jets 23-20. Buffalo was outgained in this game by 0.7 YPP and this offense has not looked good as of late scoring 10, 20 and 23 points in their last 3 games. Not ideal for a team that is laying nearly double digits in this one. They are facing a Tennessee defense that most probably don’t realize is #1 in the NFL in total defense and YPP allowed. The Titans rank in the top 10 in both rush and pass defense. They have held every opponent but one to 17 points or fewer this season. 3 of Tennessee’s 4 losses have come by 7 points or less. It’s going to be tough for Buffalo’s struggling offense to pull away in this one. We’ll take the generous points in what looks to be a lower scoring game with the total set at 41. |
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10-20-24 | Dolphins +3 v. Colts | 10-16 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
#461 ASA PLAY ON Miami Dolphins +3 over Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Fins are off bye week and had a win heading into their time off so they have some momentum. The bye week was key giving newly acquired QB Huntley some more time to get acclimated to the system. It also gives a very good offensive HC McDaniel extra time to get a game plan ready with Huntley under center. Miami looks pretty healthy after their week off and they get starting RB Achane back in the line up for this one. They are facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL as the Colts rank 30th in total defense, 31st vs the run, and 26th vs the pass. The vibe in Miami is good right now as well as they still have a shot in a weak division and they expect starting QB Tagovailoa back soon, possibly next week. A win here gets them back to .500 and hosting Arizona next week. The Colts are starting Richardson at QB for this game which we prefer. Flacco was solid in his absence and gives them a better chance to win in our opinion. Richardson is dead last in the NFL completing only 50% of his passes. He’s facing a very good Miami defense that allows just 285 YPG which is more than 100 yards better than the Indianapolis defense. On top of that, the Colts are really banged up on offense with RB Taylor most likely out along with their top 3 WR’s currently questionable. The Colts haven’t been able to put anyone away this season with their 3 wins coming by 3, 3, and 5 points. Indy is off back to back division games and they face another division opponent (Houston) next week. We give Miami a solid shot at the upset here so we’ll take the points. |
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10-19-24 | Georgia v. Texas OVER 57 | Top | 30-15 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
#401/402 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 57 Points – Georgia vs Texas, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We anticipate both teams getting to at least 30 points here so we’ll roll with the Over. Texas has now scored at least 30 points in 18 of their last 20 games while UGA has put up at least 30 on the scoreboard in 20 of their last 24 games. Both offenses are in the top 20 in YPP and they both love air it out with UGA ranking 9th nationally in YPG passing and Texas ranking 11th. The QB’s in this one are high level with UGA’s Beck and the Horn’s Ewers ranking as 2 of the top 5 signal callers in next year’s draft. Defensively Georgia has fallen off rather drastically from recent editions. The Dogs currently rank 39th in total defense and 67th in YPP allowed (FBS opponents only). They have already allowed 2 opponents to top 30 points this season including last weekend vs a Mississippi State offense that entered the game ranked 99th in scoring at just 20 PPG (they put up 31 on UGA). Prior to this season, the Bulldog defense had allowed only 2 opponents to top 30 points since the start of the 2021 season. Quite a drastic drop off this year. They allowed 41 @ Alabama this season and the Texas offense is better than the Tide so the Horns should have plenty of success here. The Longhorn defense ranks #1 nationally in total defense but they’ve played NOBODY with an offensive pulse this season. The best offense they’ve faced this far is UTSA (ranked 71st in total offense) and the average rating of the offenses they’ve faced is 100th (total offense). This spot is very similar to last weekend when Ohio State entered their game vs Oregon as the #1 ranked defense nationally but had played a very weak schedule of offenses as well (98th for an average). The Ducks put up 30+ points on that #1 defense last week. We see a similar outcome here. Weather looks perfect in Austin on Saturday night and this is a have to “keep up” offensively game in our opinion. High scoring. |
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10-19-24 | LSU v. Arkansas +3 | 34-10 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
#400 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +3 over LSU, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Great situational spot here for the Razorbacks at home. They are coming off a bye week while LSU is off an OT, come from behind, win over Ole Miss last Saturday. In that win vs Ole Miss the Tigers were outgained, only had 84 yards on the ground, and needed a long drive in the final 3 minutes (aided by two 4th down conversions) just to get to OT where they won 29-26. This is a tough spot now going on the road vs a solid Arkansas team that had big momentum heading into the bye upsetting Tennessee here at home. In their only true road game this season, LSU topped South Carolina 36-33, but trailed by 17 points in the first half. They led for just over 2:00 total minutes in that win. They probably should have lost that game along with their game vs Ole Miss last week which would have put them at a 3-3 record and we’re talking about a completely different line in this game if that was the case. Even their lone loss this season, 27-20 vs USC, isn’t looking great as the Trojans are now just 3-3. These 2 SEC rivals have played almost identical strength of schedules to date, yet Arkansas has the better point differential, YPG margin, and YPP margin. We also like that the host should have a solid advantage on the ground with a +94 YPG rushing margin on the season while LSU is -4 YPG rushing this season. Razor QB Green was banged up in his last game, a win over Tennessee, but looks like he’s ready to go coming off the bye. The Razorbacks have covered 7 of their last 8 as a dog and head coach Pittman has covered 22 of his last 30 when getting points. We’ll call for another on Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | Auburn +4 v. Missouri | Top | 17-21 | Push | 0 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
#409 ASA PLAY ON Auburn +4 over Missouri, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Missouri is 5-1 on the season and ranked in the top 20. Auburn is 2-4 on the season yet this line is only Mizzou -4.5 at home? The Auburn Tigers are much better than their record this season. Despite being 2 games under .500, Auburn has outgained their opponents by an average of +107 YPG and they have a +2.3 YPP margin. That’s facing a very tough schedule to date (36th SOS) having already played Georgia, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. The problem with Auburn has been turnovers. They are already -11 turnovers on the season which is dead last in the country. If they can rectify that, this team is really quite good. They rank in the top 35 nationally in both total offense and total defense. Missouri has played a light weight schedule this season. Their strength of schedule is ranked 111th which is the 2nd easiest at the Power 4 level ahead of only Indiana. They’ve faced only 1 team this season power rated inside our top 50 and that was Texas A&M who rolled Missouri 41-10 outgaining the Tigers 512 to 254. The only other 2 teams with a pulse that Mizzou has faced this year were home games vs Vandy (Tigers won in OT) and Boston College (Tigers won by 6). Despite playing an ultra easy schedule, Missouri is just +1.1 YPP margin which is far worse than Auburn’s who has faced a much more difficult slate. Auburn is coming off a bye week and they’ve won all 3 meetings vs Missouri. If Auburn can keep their turnovers in check, they’ll have a great shot to win this game outright. |
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10-18-24 | Oklahoma State +9.5 v. BYU | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 46 h 34 m | Show | |
#321 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma State +9.5 over BYU, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid line value with OSU here just based on recent spreads involving BYU. The Cougars were just favored by -2.5 last weekend at home vs Arizona, a team that rates nearly identical to Oklahoma State in our power ratings. BYU was favored earlier this year by 9.5 (same number as we have on Friday) at home vs a Wyoming team that is among the worst in the country. In their most recent road game, OSU was a 6 point dog @ Kansas State (who was favored by 7 @ BYU earlier this year) and we have the Wildcats rated a full 6 points better than BYU on a neutral field. You get the point. OSU has played back to back terrible games which is the reason this line sits where it is. The Cowboys were rolled by both Kansas State and West Virginia their last 2 contests but now had 2 weeks off to regroup and prepare for this one. BYU is 6-0 both SU and ATS but they’ve been pretty fortunate. Last week in their blowout win over Arizona, the yardage was about even but the Wildcats had 4 turnovers. They topped Baylor by 6 a week earlier in a game that was also basically even yardage wise and the Bears were shut out on downs inside BYU territory late. A week earlier they topped KSU but were outgained by 125 yards and helped by the Cats who had 3 turnovers. 9 takeaways by BYU in the last 3 games isn’t sustainable. When these 2 met last year @ Okie State, the Cowboys were favored by 17 and now getting nearly 10? That’s a 27 point swing in one year. In a similar spot last year, the Cowboys were 2-2 coming off losses vs South Alabama and Iowa State heading into their bye. Coming out of their bye week they beat Kansas State as an 11 point underdog, won 5 in a row and 7 of their last 9. OSU head coach Gundy has been around a long time and is a solid head man. He’ll have them ready here. Take the points. |
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10-17-24 | Broncos v. Saints UNDER 37 | 33-10 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
ASA NFL play on UNDER 37 Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints, 8:20 PM ET - We are playing the Under in this Thursday night game between the Broncos and Saints. The Saints have been decimated with injuries and are coming off a game in which they allowed 51-points to the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay though was 9th in scoring going into that game at 25.4PPG. Denver has struggled to put up points other than their one game against the Raiders a few weeks ago. In that game Denver got a rare 100-yards INT return for a touchdown. The Broncos average 18.7PPG on the season which ranks 25th in the NFL. Denver’s offense isn’t explosive as it averages just 4.7 Yards Per Play which ranks 27th in the league. The Broncos are 31st in 3rd down percentage and struggle to maintain drives. New Orleans will struggle to score here too against a Denver D that is 4th in yards allowed per game, 2nd in YPPG allowed at 4.7, 6th in Rushing yards per play allowed and they give up just 16ppg which is 4th lowest in the NFL. The Saints defense has some horrific statistics, but they’ve also faced some of the leagues better offenses which has skewed their overall numbers. With the Saints just allowing 51-points and the Books taking heavy action on the Over, ask yourself why haven’t they adjusted this number higher? We think the obvious answer is this game stays Under. |
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10-16-24 | Western Kentucky v. Sam Houston State OVER 55.5 | 31-14 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
#307/308 ASA PLAY ON Over 55.5 Points – Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We think both teams have a great shot at reaching 30 points so our call is the Over in this one. WKY is averaging 26 PPG on the season but they were shutout in week 1 vs Alabama so that number is a bit misleading. If you take away the Bama game, the Hilltoppers are averaging 34 PPG. They love to pass the ball (21st in pass attempts per game) and they average 280 YPG through the air which plays directly into SHSU’s defensive weakness. The Bearkats are allowing over 20 completions per game (102nd) and while their overall passing yardage allowed isn’t terrible (64th), they’ve faced a very weak set of passing offenses to date. The only 2 passing offenses they’ve encountered that currently rank inside the top 70 in passing YPG are Texas State, who threw for 326 yards, and Hawaii, who threw for 252 yards. WKY’s QB Veltkamp is having a very solid season completing 70% of his passes with nearly 1,200 yards through the air. He should pile up solid numbers here. Sam Houston’s offense has been in a tear. They have scored at least 31 points in 5 of their 6 games this season. They are one of the best running teams in the nation (12th in rushing YPG & 5th in rushing attempts per game) and should do well here vs a Western defense that is allowing 162 YPG rushing (96th). WKY’s defense is also allowing 6.0 YPP on the year which ranks them 108th in that category. The Hilltoppers rank in the top 35 in tempo (seconds per play) and SHSU ranks in the top half of college football in that stat. The weather looks perfect in Huntsville, TX for this one with temps in the 60’s and light winds at game time. Lots of points expected and we’ll grab the Over. |
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10-15-24 | Troy v. South Alabama UNDER 55 | 9-25 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
#301/302 ASA PLAY ON Under 55 Points – Troy vs South Alabama, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - This Sun Belt rivalry has been a low scoring series and we don’t see that changing tonight. Over the last decade these 2 have a record of 7-2-1 to the Under with the average total points scored just 40. The last time these 2 topped tonight’s total (currently 55) was back in 2013, which is actually the only time this game has topped 55 points. Troy’s offense lost pretty much everyone from last year and they have struggled to say the least. They rank 110th in total offense and are averaging only 20 PPG (112th). If we subtract their game vs FCS Florida A&M, the Trojans have not topped 26 points in any game this season. South Alabama’s defense doesn’t have great numbers, however much of that is because of 2 games vs LSU where they allowed 42 points and North Texas (5th nationally in total offense) where they allowed 52 points. In their other games the Jaguars have allowed 14, 16, 18, and 27 points. South Alabama’s offense is solid (32nd in total offense) but if we subtract their game vs FCS Northwestern State where they scored 87, yes 87 points, the Jags are averaging just 26 PPG. Troy loves to play a slow paced game (outside the top 100 in seconds per play) and they know they need to run the ball and keep this one low scoring to have a chance. South Alabama is not a fast paced team (56th in tempo) so we don’t expect many offensive possessions in this game. Under is the call. |
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10-14-24 | Bills v. Jets +1 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
ASA play on NY Jets +1 vs. Buffalo Bills, Monday 8:20 PM ET - One of the bigger public Sports Books is carrying this line as the Bills favored by 1-point with an overwhelming number of bets and “Joe’s” money on Buffalo. When we see that we immediately look at the other side of the ticket. Buffalo is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd straight road game after facing the Ravens and Texans on the road. The Bills lost both of those games after starting the season 3-0 against subpar competition. We are betting the Jets will get a bump this week with the coaching change as Saleh wasn’t well liked in the locker room and new coach Jeff Ulbrich is. They should also be better offensively with a new play caller Todd Downing takes over for Nathaniel Hackett. We have seen a regression in the Bills offense the past two weeks facing solid defenses similar to the Jets. Buffalo’s offense could be limited tonight with WR Shakir and RB Cook both listed as questionable. The Jets have not run the ball effectively with RB Hall this season ranking last in the league in RYPG but that could change tonight versus a banged-up Bills defense that is 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 32nd in yards per rush allowed at 5.2. The home team has won 5 straight in this series, make it 6 after tonight. |
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10-13-24 | Bengals -3.5 v. Giants | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show | |
#285 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Sometimes the obvious bet is right, which is the case tonight. Cincinnati is in a dire situation with a 1-4 start to the season and desperately needs a win this week. This Bengals team had high hopes and were a team predicted to potentially win the AFC North. This team is just a few years removed from playing in the Super Bowl and loaded offensively. The Bengals are better than their record with the 2nd rated offense in terms of DVOA and the 22nd defensively. In comparison the Giants are 17th in DVOA offensively, 19th in defense. Cincinnati lost to Kansas City and Baltimore, who we have rated as the top two teams in the NFL. They also have a loss to the 4-1 Redskins. New York is 2-3 SU and coming off a shocking road win in Seattle last Sunday as a 7-point underdog. The Giants have lost twice at home this season and are just 15-19-1 SU at home since 2020 with a negative differential of minus -4.4PPG. The Giants will be without their top receiver again this week with Nabers out and are also missing their top edge rusher with Thibodeaux out. The Giants will have a hard time keeping up in this one against a Bengals team that has put up 33+ points in three straight games. With Joe Burrows under center the Bengals have covered 10 of their last fourteen as a road chalk. Lay it! |
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10-13-24 | Falcons -6 v. Panthers | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
#281 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -6 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Now that the NFL teams have had a few weeks to settle in, we are starting to see the cream rise to the top and Atlanta is certainly trending up. Carolina on the other hand is not. The Panthers got a 1-game bump when QB Dalton took over for Bryce Young and won at Las Vegas but since then they have lost two straight. Let’s face it, the win over Vegas isn’t that impressive considering the disarray that franchise is in right now. The Panthers then lost by double digits to Cincinnati at home and at Chicago the next two weeks. Last week the Panthers defense gave up 36-points and 6.1 Yards Per Play to the Bears who are averaging just 22.2PPG and 4.4YPP on the season. Atlanta has faced a tough schedule to start the season but is coming off their best game of the season against Tampa Bay. The Falcons put up 36-points and averaged 6.5YPP offensively. Atlanta has a +0.9 Yards Per Play differential compared to the Panthers who have the 4th worst YPP differential of minus -1. Atlanta is 9th in offensive DVOA, 20th defensively, Carolina is 29th and 30th. The Panthers had a negative point differential of minus -10.6PPG last season, minus -7PPG when at home. |
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10-13-24 | Jaguars +1 v. Bears | Top | 16-35 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars +1 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - This game is being played at Tottenham Stadium on London. The Jags are more than familiar with playing in London as they’ve already been their 11 times (6-5 SU record). In fact, they face Chicago on Sunday, then stay in London to play New England next week as well. We like the been there, done that, situation for Jacksonville vs a young Chicago team making their first trip overseas since 2019. The Bears are 3-2 on the season but a bit of a fraud in our opinion. Their wins have come vs Tennessee, LA Rams, and Carolina who have a combined record of 3-11 and Chicago was outgained in 2 of those wins. As you might expect based on those wins, the Bears have played one of the easiest strength of schedules to date (30th) yet they are still getting outgained by 0.6 YPP (3rd worst in the NFL). They’ve only outgained 1 opponent on a YPP basis this season and that was Carolina rates as one of the worst few teams in the NFL. Jacksonville was considered by many a playoff caliber team entering the season. They have disappointed with a 1-4 record, however they have a better YPP margin than the Bears and have played the much more difficult schedule thus far. Three of their four losses have coming by 5 points or less and they have some momentum heading overseas after beating the Colts last Sunday. The offense, which ranks 11th in YPP, looked better than it has all season in that win putting up 37 points on nearly 500 yards. Head coach Doug Pederson took over play calling duties for that one and it showed on the field. The Bears offense is averaging only 287 YPG and 4.4 YPP which is 29th in the league. The Jags should control the trenches here with their +0.9 YPC margin vs Chicago’s -0.7 YPC margin. QB Trevor Lawrence finally had a breakout game last Sunday with 370 yards passing giving him some much needed confidence heading into this one. Our power ratings have Jacksonville as a small favorite here so we’ll grab the points with the Jags. |
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10-12-24 | Minnesota v. UCLA +4 | 21-17 | Push | 0 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
#196 ASA PLAY ON UCLA +4 over Minnesota, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Minnesota is in a really rough spot here making the long travel to California after upsetting USC in Minneapolis last week. The Gophers scored the game winning TD with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game to win 27-24. USC outgained Minnesota in the game but turned the ball over 3 times and missed a FG. Gopher head coach PJ Fleck went nutty in the locker room post game as if they had just won the National Championship. That ended a huge 3 game stretch for Minnesota facing Iowa, Michigan, then USC (they lost the first 2 games). We would expect a letdown in this game in which they are expected to win. We were down on UCLA entering the season but they’ve shown a lot of fight despite their 1-4 record. They have played the #1 rated strength of schedule in the nation and they get a bit of a reprieve here after taking on Indiana, LSU, Oregon, and Penn State over their last 4 games. Those 4 opponents have a combined record of 20-1 on the season. UCLA has covered 3 in a row by an average of more than a TD per game. Last week @ PSU, the Bruins lost 27-11 as 4 TD dogs, were only outgained by 62 yards and held the vaunted Nittany Lion rushing attack to just 85 yards on 2.8 YPC. They have not given up, playing hard vs a brutal schedule and now they catch Minnesota in a great spot to get picked off. Big 10 teams that have traveled at least 2 times zones in conference play this year (West coast teams to the Midwest or East or vise versa) are 1-8 SU this season. The last 4 times Minnesota has been a road favorite, they are 0-4 ATS and lost 3 of those games outright. UCLA keeps this close and has a great shot at the upset. |
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10-12-24 | Iowa State v. West Virginia +3.5 | Top | 28-16 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
#124 ASA PLAY ON West Virginia +3.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This is a perfect spot for overvalued vs undervalued in our opinion. WVU is 3-2 on the season with losses vs Penn State and Pitt who have a combined record of 10-0. The Mountaineers weren’t overly competitive in week 1 vs PSU which is understandable vs a top 5 team. They blew a 10 point lead with less than 4 minutes remaining vs Pitt so this WVU team could easily be 4-1. ISU steps in with an undefeated record but they’ve played a much easier schedule. Their best win was 20-19 vs in-state rival Iowa, a game that ISU never led until their game winning FG with 6 seconds left in the contest. Their other wins have come vs North Dakota, Arkansas State, Baylor (2-4 record), and Houston (2-4 record). The Cyclones are stepping up in class here and laying a full FG on the road. WVU has some solid momentum and should be fairly rested here as they roasted Oklahoma State 38-14 on the road last week and the Mountaineers were coming off a bye for that one. They absolutely dominated the Cowboys outgained them 558 to 227, including 389 to 36 on the ground. Speaking of the ground, West Virginia has one of the best rushing attacks in the country averaging 239 YPG on 6.0 YPC. They should control the ground game vs an Iowa State defense that allowed 155 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC. Dating back to early in the 2021 season, ISU has been a road favorite 9 times and they have a 3-6 ATS & SU record in those games. They are overvalued here due to their perfect mark vs a weak schedule. We like WVU to win this game at home. |
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10-12-24 | Arkansas State v. Texas State -13.5 | 9-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
#194 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -13.5 over Arkansas State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - These 2 teams are both 3-2 but there is no comparison when looking at how these teams have gotten to this point. Texas State is the FAR superior team. TSU’s 2 losses came at the hands of Arizona State (by 3 points) and Sam Houston State (by 1 point). The Bobcats outgained both of those teams in losing efforts and blew an 18 point second half lead vs SHSU and a 7-point second half lead vs ASU. Their stats are extremely impressive and scream undefeated team. Despite their 3-2 record, the Bobcats are +12.6 PPG, +125 YPG, and +2.8 YPP. Arkansas State has the same 3-2 record, yet their numbers in those key stats are -9.2 PPG, -78 YPG, and -1.6 YPP. While Texas State has outgained each of their 5 opponents, Arkansas State has been outgained in all 5 of their games. The Red Wolves actually rank outside the top 100 in both total offense and total defense. Their wins came vs FCS Central Arkansas by 3 points, Tulsa who has a 2-4 record, by 4 points, and South Alabama, who has a 2-4 record, by 2 points. We were on South Alabama last week and Arkie State kicked a FG with 10 seconds remaining to win the game. TSU played @ Troy last week and blasted the Trojans 38-17 outgaining them by 130 yards including 215 to 63 on the ground. Not only is Texas State the much better team in this match up, they have massive revenge involved. This is a game they’ve been waiting for. That’s because last season, TSU was favored @ Arkansas State and lost 77-31. You read that correctly. Believe it or not, the Bobcats actually outgained ASU 539 to 494 in that loss but had 4 turnovers (0 for ASU) in that game. Not only that, 3 of the turnovers were a fumble returned for a TD along with 2 pick 6’s. On top of that, Arkansas State also had a 93 yard kickoff return so 4 non-offensive TD’s in the game. We don’t think Arkansas State, who is averaging 21 PPG, can keep up here vs a motivated Texas State team that has already scored at least 34 points in 4 of their 5 games. Blowout expected here. |
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10-12-24 | California v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
#128 ASA TOP PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3 over California, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Just a terrible situational spot for the Golden Bears. This team will have a hard time getting up off the mat after blowing a huge lead at home vs Miami last week. Cal led the Canes by 20 points with just over 10 minutes remaining in game last Saturday and they lost 39-38. Miami scored 3 TD’s in the final 10:28 to get the 1 point win including the game winner with 28 seconds remaining. Now they have to make the long 2500 mile trip to Pittsburgh which will be the Bears 3rd trip to the east time zone since Sept 7th. That means this Cal team will have already traveled almost 13,000 miles in the last 5 weeks when they land in Pittsburgh for this game. Their devastating home loss vs Miami on Saturday actually wasn’t as close as the score would indicate. How the Bears pulled out to a 20 point lead is tough to comprehend as they were outgained by 205 total yards and had 18 fewer first downs. The Canes held a 15 minute time of possession edge and ran 86 offensive snaps which should lead the Cal defense running out of gas in this game, especially as the game wears on. While the Bears were blowing a huge lead at home, Pitt went into North Carolina and won 34-24 outgaining the Heels by over 100 yards. They won by 10 despite the Tar Heels scoring on an 86 yard pick 6 which was potentially a 14 point turnaround with Pitt going into score. The Panthers are now 5-0 with solid wins over UNC, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. It’s not a fluke the Panthers are undefeated as their stats have been dominant. On the season they are +20 PPG, +152 YPG, +2.3 YPP, and +2.9 yards per rush. Cal is 3-2 on the season and in those stats they are +8 PPG, +28 YPG, +0.7 YPP, and +0.2 yards per rush. One of their long road trips was a loss @ a bad Florida State team giving the Noles their only win so far this season. Pitt is at home and is full focused heading into a bye week. Easy win for the Panthers in this one. |
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10-11-24 | Northwestern v. Maryland OVER 45.5 | 37-10 | Win | 100 | 68 h 54 m | Show | |
#115/116 ASA PLAY ON Over 45.5 Points – Northwestern vs Maryland, Friday at 8 PM ET - Northwestern’s pass defense is one of the worst in the nation (110th) and we expect them to get torched here by Maryland’s passing game which ranks 17th averaging over 300 YPG through the air. Last week the Cats faced Indiana in Evanston in windy conditions right on Lake Michigan (NW temporary stadium is right on the lake) and despite those conditions the Hoosiers put up 41 points and over 300 yards passing. The Terps offense ranks in the top 35 averaging 452 YPG and they have not been held below 24 points this season (they average 33 PPG). NW starting QB Lausch has made some real noticeable progress since taking over for previous starter Wright a few weeks ago. Lausch struggled in his first road start vs Washington (who has a top 10 defense) but looked really good last week vs the Hoosiers. In that game Lausch threw for 243 yards and 2 TD’s in less than ideal conditions (windy). NW put up 24 points in that loss. We expect Lausch to have more success on Friday evening vs a Maryland defense that ranks 120th defending the pass allowing 270 YPG. When these 2 met last year the total was set in the high 40’s and they flew over the total with 60 points. These teams have faced off 4 times since Maryland joined the Big 10 and all 4 have totaled at least 46 points with an average of 55 total points. The weather looks perfect in College Park on Friday night with temps in the low 60’s and light winds. Over is the call. |
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10-10-24 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 49 | Top | 36-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
#105/106 ASA PLAY ON Over 48.5 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 have combined to play 10 games this season with 7 of them going Over the total. Both offenses are the strengths of these teams right now. SF’s defense has been subpar all season allowing 5.6 YPP (20th in the NFL) and just over 21 PPG. If we subtract their games vs the Patriots (31st in scoring) and the Jets (24th in scoring) the Niners are allowing 25 PPG. They’ve actually faced 3 offenses ranked outside the top 24 in scoring if we add in the Rams who put up 27 on this defense. Seattle will be the best offense they’ve faced both YPG (7th) and PPG (11th). The Seattle defense is in a similar situation. They’ve allowed 22.8 PPG (17th) yet they’ve played a number of weak offenses. Four of their five opponents rank 22nd or lower in scoring this season (Miami, New England, NYG, and Denver) yet they are still allowing almost 23 PPG. Now they face a SF offense that ranks 2nd in YPG and YPP and 10th in scoring. In their last 2 games alone, the Seattle defense has allowed 7.8 YPP vs Detroit and 6.0 YPP vs the NY Giants. They are trending in the wrong direction right now. The Seahawks offense had an off performance last week vs the Giants which could have been due to their short week (played on Monday night @ Detroit) and long travel situation. Even with that performance, they still rank in the top 11 in the NFL in scoring, YPG, and YPP on offense. It’s always smart to check the weather in Seattle as it can be sketchy however Thursday night looks great no precipitation and light winds. Both offenses are off below average performances last week and we expect each to bounce back and plenty of scoring on Thursday night. Take the Over. |
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10-10-24 | Middle Tennessee State v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 49.5 | 21-48 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 60 m | Show | |
#109/110 ASA PLAY ON Under 49.5 Points – Middle Tennessee State vs Louisiana Tech, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Two bad offenses facing off here in this CUSA battle. MTSU ranks 98th in YPP on offense while La Tech ranks 119th. They average 16 PPG and 19 PPG respectively. They only game in which MTSU topped 21 points was vs FCS Tennessee Tech and even in that game the Blue Raiders tallied only 328 total yards. In this match up, they are facing a very solid La Tech defense that ranks 30th nationally in total defense and 23rd in YPP allowed at just 4.5. The only team that topped 20 points vs this LT defense this season (in regulation) was NC State and even in that game the Wolfpack only had 23 offensive points (they scored a defensive TD for 30 points). The Bulldogs have held every opponent to under their season PPG average this year including NC State if you subtract the defensive TD by the Wolfpack. Offensively this Tech team is not good. The only game in which they topped 325 total yards was vs FCS Nicholls State and in that game they only scored 25 points. They have not topped 20 points in any of their games vs FBS opponents this season. Last week, they faced an FIU defense that ranks outside the top 100 and the Bulldogs only put up 17 points (17-10 win). MTSU’s defense ranks very low as well, however La Tech has struggled against every defense they’ve faced, good or bad. The MTSU defense actually has a bit of momentum as well holding a potent Memphis offense to 24 points in their most recent game. We don’t think either team gets into the mid 20’s here so Under is the play. |
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10-09-24 | New Mexico State v. Jacksonville State OVER 58 | 13-54 | Win | 100 | 32 h 38 m | Show | |
#103/104 ASA PLAY ON Over 58 Points – New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Two terrible defenses in this game will lead to a higher scoring game. These 2 rank 111th and 126th in total defense and 120th and 121st in scoring defense. The Jax State offense is rolling right now and should have their way vs this NMSU defense 30+ points in every game this season (minus their one FCS opponent). In their most recent game, the Aggies gave up 50 points and almost 600 yards to arch rival New Mexico. JSU has put up 141 points in their last 3 games alone (47 PPG) and they averaged over 500 YPG in those games. That shouldn’t change on Wednesday vs one of the worst defensive teams in the country. New Mexico State should also have offensive success in this game. Their offensive numbers aren’t great this season (19.6 PPG) but they’ve only faced one defense this season outside the top 100 (same range as JSU) and the Aggies put up 40 points in that game vs New Mexico. They also put up 24 points vs Liberty who has a top 35 defense. The Aggies strength on offense is their running game (155 YPG rushing) and that plays directly into JSU’s defensive weakness as they rank 118th defending the run. Jacksonville State plays as a very fast pace (9th in seconds per play) and NMSU is in the top half of the country in tempo. We should get plenty of offensive snaps in this game and with poor defensive teams, we’ll call for the Over in this game. |
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10-07-24 | Saints +5.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-26 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints +5.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Chiefs are undefeated but their point differential is just +20 (7th in the NFL). All 4 of their wins this season have come by a TD or less. KC has won 8 of last 9 dating back to last season but 7 of those 8 wins have been one score games so they are not pulling away from teams in their wins. KC’s overall stats are pretty darn average for a team that is 4-0. They are 15th in YPP margin at +0.2 and have outgained opponents overall by just +2 YPG. On top of that, the Chiefs have LOTS of injuries on offense missing their top RB as well as their top 3 WR’s entering the season. The Saints are now 2-2 so this is a bigger game for them. Their 2 wins were both blowouts, but their losses were each down to the wire losing by 3 vs Philly and by 2 vs Atlanta. In their 26-24 loss @ Atlanta last week, New Orleans outgained the Falcons but the Birds had 2 defensive TD’s in the game. Despite their 2-2 record, New Orleans has outgained 3 of their 4 opponents and they have a better YPP margin when compared to the Chiefs. The Saints have been a long term money maker on the road going 35-18 ATS away from home over the last 6+ seasons. Lastly, in MNF games when an AFC team faces an NFC team, the home teams have been terrible with a spread record of just 12-32-2 ATS (27.3%). We give the Saints a decent shot at the upset here but worst case we like them to keep this close. |
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10-06-24 | Cowboys v. Steelers UNDER 44 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
#473/474 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 44 Points - Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday 8:20 PM ET - The oddsmakers were right on this opening number of 41, but money came in on the Over and drove this O/U to 44, above key numbers of 41 and 42. These two offenses are pedestrian and lack explosiveness with the Steelers ranking 21st in YPP at 4.9, the Cowboys are 18th at 5.4-yards per play. Dallas does rank 9th in yards per point scored at 13.6, but the Steelers offset that with their yards per point offense which ranks 25th. The Steelers defense is 4th in the NFL in total yards allowed 6th in YPP defense at 5.1, hold opponents to 3.7 rushing yards per attempt and give up just 13.2PPG. Dallas has offensive weapons, but they struggle to run the football, ranking last in the league at 75.2 rushing YPG on the season at 3.5-yards per attempt. Dallas has some poor defensive statistics this season, but they’ve also faced the Saints who lead the league in scoring at 31.8PPG and the Ravens who are 5th at 26.5PPG. This Steelers offense is scoring just 18.8PPG and relies heavily on the running game which is 3rd in attempts this season. There is potentially rain/wind in Pittsburgh Sunday night which will certainly help our cause and Under bet. |
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10-06-24 | Packers -3 v. Rams | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
#469 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Rams are really banged up right now and it shows in their performances this season. They will again be without their top 2 WR’s Cupp & Nakua and their offensive still has issues. Partly due to that, their offense has struggled scoring just 18.8 PPG while only averaging 5.2 YPP. That’s not good when your defense can’t stop anyone. LA ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.4 YPP and dead last in rushing defense giving up 165 YPG on the ground on 5.0 YPC. That’s not a good recipe for success especially in this game vs a Green Bay offense that is averaging 175 YPG rushing which is 2nd in the league. The Packers struggle offensively to start last week’s game which was expected at QB Love was back but had missed a few weeks prior. However, in the 2nd half GB kicked it in gear and nearly won in a game they trailed 28-7 at half (31-29 final). Once Love and the offense got comfortable and back in synch they tallied over 300 yards in the 2nd half alone. We think they’ll pick up where they left off vs this suspect Rams defense. LA is just not playing well right now. They rank 31st in YPP differential ahead of only New England and they have been outgained in 3 of their 4 games this season. The only team they outgained in the stats was Chicago last week which wasn’t a surprise as the Bears rank last in the NFL in YPP offense. We like Green Bay to win this one by more than a FG. |
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10-06-24 | Colts +3 v. Jaguars | 34-37 | Push | 0 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
#457 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +3 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Not sure why Jacksonville is favored by a full FG here (as of this writing on Friday). They are the only winless team in the NFL and they’ve only won 1 of their last 9 games dating back to last season. Jags QB Lawrence has been disappointing to say the least losing his last 9 times a starting QB and he ranks 23rd in the NFL this year in passing yards and QBR. With their 0-4 record to start the season, Jacksonville’s chance of making the playoffs are basically nil and you have to wonder what their mindset is moving forward. They have very little home field advantage with a 3-6 SU record since the start of last season. The Jags are also just 16-32 as a home favorite dating back to the start of the 2008 season. The Colts are 2-2 after topping previously undefeated Pittsburgh last week but their stats say they are better than that. Their YPP differential is +0.7 which is the 8th best mark in the NFL (Jags are -1.0 YPP). Looks like Indy will start Joe Flacco at QB (if not we’re good with Richardson under center as well) and we feel he might be a one game upgrade over Anthony Richardson. We often see a one game surge from a team that loses their starting QB and Flacco came in last week after Richardson was injured vs a very good Pittsburgh defense and threw for 168 yards and 2 TDs. We like Indy to keep this close and we’ll take the FG. |
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10-05-24 | Michigan v. Washington -120 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
#392 ASA TOP PLAY ON Washington -120 ON THE MONEY LINE over Michigan, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We’re playing Washington ON THE MONEY LINE here to just win the game straight up. Michigan is ranked in the top 10 (undeservedly so) and they are an underdog here vs a team that has a 3-2 record and is unranked? Hmmm? We feel pretty strongly that despite their record, Washington is the better team in this match up. The Huskies lost last week @ Rutgers (we were on UW) despite completely dominating the game outgaining the Knights 521 to 299 (7.9 YPP to 4.4 YPP). In both of their losses vs Rutgers and Washington State, the Huskies dominated the stat sheet and in fact they’ve outgained every opponent this season. Their YPG margin is +220 and they have a +3.1 YPP differential. They rank in the top 20 nationally in both total offense and total defense. Simply not the numbers of a 2 loss team. If UW was undefeated entering this game, which they probably should be, we are looking at a higher number. Michigan is 4-1 this season but they are getting OUTGAINED by 7 YPG. They barely held on at home last week 27-24 vs a pretty average Minnesota team but the Wolverines were outgained by 55 yards in that win. The Wolverines have struggled to beat teams at home this year and now they take the road for the first time (long travel). They have almost zero passing game averaging only 115 YPG through the air (130th) and it’s actually gotten worse since Orgi took over at QB. In his 2 starts vs USC and Minnesota, Orgi has a total of 118 yards passing. This team is very one dimensional and they are facing a defense that ranks 8th nationally allowing only 4.1 YPP. Not a good recipe for offensive success. UW has a massive edge on offense (20th in total offense to 116th for Michigan) and at QB with Will Rogers who has almost 14,000 careers passing yards and 104 TD’s. Different head coaches and many new players for each team, however we still anticipate a little extra motivation for Washington after losing to Michigan in last year’s National Championship game. The Huskies take this one at home. |
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10-05-24 | Old Dominion v. Coastal Carolina -5 | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
#330 ASA PLAY ON Coastal Carolina -5 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET - This is a fantastic spot to back CC and fade ODU. Coastal is coming off a bye-week and will be rested and have the perfect gameplan in place for the Monarchs. Old Dominion is coming off a last second win on the road at Bowling Green. ODU averaged just 5.1YPP against Bowling Green and needed a TD with just .24-seconds left to pull out the road upset. Old Dominion had lost three straight games prior with 19, 14 and 17 points offensively. Coastal Carolina was 3-0 SU prior to a loss to Virginia on Sept 21st. CC put up 390 yards in the loss to UVA but were minus -2 in TO’s. Virginia pounded Coastal on the ground with their rushing attack which ranks 30th in college football. ODU does not possess that type of rushing attack, and they may be down to their second-string QB here as their starter, Wilson, went out last game in the 3rd quarter. The Monarchs have one of the worst passing attacks in the country averaging just 145PYPG on the season with a completion rate of 53.10% which ranks 117th. Old Dominion has a negative point differential of minus -6.8PPG this season and were minus -7.4PPG on the road a year ago. Last year Coastal Carolina won at ODU 28-24 but they outgained the Monarchs by over 110 total yards. CC is 23-5 SU their last 28 home games. ODU has lost 14 of their last 20 road games by an average of minus -6PPG. |
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10-05-24 | South Alabama -3 v. Arkansas State | Top | 16-18 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
SUN BELT CONFERENCE (SBC) GAME OF THE MONTH: #387 ASA PLAY ON South Alabama -3 over Arkansas State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Arkansas State has the better record at 2-2 while South Alabama sits at 2-3 yet we feel the Jaguars are the much better team in this match up. Arkie State could easily be 0-4 on the season as their wins over Central Arkansas and Tulsa by 3 & 4 points respectively. The Red Wolves were outgained 7.1 YPP to 5.0 YPP vs FCS Central Arkansas and 5.9 YPP to 5.3 YPP vs Tulsa. They were extremely fortunate to come out with 2 wins in those games. On the season Arkansas State had a YPG margin of -120, a YPP margin of -2.2 and a YPC (rushing) margin of -3.2. Compare that to South Alabama who has a YPG margin of +21, a YPP margin of +0.4, and a YPC margin of +1.7. The Jaguars should have a massive edge on the ground in this game 210 YPG rushing on 6.2 YPC vs a Arkansas State defense 234 yards on the ground (129th) on 6.0 YPC (131st). The Wolves have been outgained by at least 1.8 YPC in all 4 of their games this season. The South Alabama offense is potent and we don’t see ASU keeping up here. They rank 19th nationally in total offense (470 YPG) and 21st putting up 7.1 YPP. ASU ranks 104th and 125th in those 2 stats. On top of that, we don’t see the Arkansas State defense making up for their offensive deficiencies here as they rank outside the top 100 in total defense and YPP allowed. South Alabama has won 5 straight in this series and last year they were favored by 15.5 so getting them at -3 here is a bargain. The Jags already proved they can get it done on the road beating App State 48-14 a few weeks ago and we have App State rated as a better team that Arkansas State. Let’s lay this small number with South Alabama. |
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10-05-24 | Temple v. Connecticut -17 | 20-29 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
#378 ASA PLAY ON Connecticut -17 over Temple, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UConn is rolling right now to say the least. They are coming off a 47-3 blowout win over Buffalo last week. A week earlier they rolled FAU here at home 48-14. In their 3 games at home the Huskies have scored 158 for an average of 52 PPG. The 2 teams they just destroyed here we have both rated better than this Temple squad who we have rated in the bottom 10 nationally. The Owls may be without their starting QB Simon who injured his shoulder in last week’s 48-14 home loss vs Army. Their back up QB Brock has an injured wrist so there is a chance this bad Owls offense (119th in total offense) will be down to their 3rd string signal caller. In their 2 road games this season, Temple has been outscored 89-14. Their rush defense ranks 131st allowing 261 YPG on 5.9 YPC. That won’t cut it here vs this UConn running game that is up to 12th nationally averaging 245 YPG and they’ve rushed for a ridiculous 1,300+ yards in their 3 home games. UConn starting QB Evers left last week’s blowout win with an injury but back up Fagnano is a better passer and has played plenty this season. He makes this offense even tougher to defend in our opinion. He came in last week, let the Huskies to 34 of their 47 points, had over 200 yards passing and 3 TDs. We were on UConn last week in an easy win and we’re not back off this money train this week. They’ve covered their last 4 games by an average of 29 points above and beyond the spread and we anticipate another easy win on Saturday vs a bad Temple team. |
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10-04-24 | Syracuse +6.5 v. UNLV | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 14 m | Show | |
#367 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse +6.5 over UNLV, Friday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some pretty good line value with the Orange in this game. Our power ratings have UNLV favored by a FG here. To put this number in perspective, last week the Rebels played host to Fresno State and they were favored by -2.5 to -3 range. We have Cuse favored by a full TD over Fresno on a neutral field in our ratings. Others we respect are in the same range. This line has moved too much based on UNLV’s 59-14 win over Fresno. While impressive, the fact is Fresno had 4 turnovers (0 for UNLV) which led to a number of very good offensive situations for the Rebels who scored TD’s on drives of 25 yards, 29 yards, a 90 yard punt return, and blocked punt return. UNLV played with their back up QB Williams (transfer from Campbell) after their starter quit the team early in the week because of an NIL dispute. Williams looked very good, but now Cuse has film on him and teams often get that one game, rally the troops, boost in this type of situation. UNLV has faced one Power 4 opponent this year, Kansas, and while they won by a FG, the Rebs were dominated in the stats 6 YPP to 4.1 YPP, 6.4 yards per pass attempt to 4.8, and 5.7 YPC to 3.9. That’s a Kansas team that is now 1-4 and the Jayhawks were favored by 9 in that game. Now we have UNLV laying nearly a full TD in this one. Syracuse rolled over Holy Cross and their lone loss was a 2 point setback vs Stanford in a game they outgained the Cardinal. The Orange are one of the better passing teams in the nation (#3 averaging 372 passing YPG) and UNLV has struggled vs the pass (60th) despite only playing one QB who is a solid passing threat. That was last week vs Fresno’s Mikey Keene who threw for over 300 yards on 66% completion rate. We expect Syracuse QB McCord (former Ohio State starter) to have a big day and keep the Orange in this one all the way. Take the points. |
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10-03-24 | Bucs v. Falcons UNDER 44 | 30-36 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
#301/302 ASA PLAY ON Under 44 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Atlanta Falcons, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Three of the four Thursday night match ups this season have gone Under the Total and the average total points scored in those games was 37.5. We expect another grinder on Thursday in this key division battle. Four of the last five meetings between these two NFC South rivals have totaled 47 or fewer points and the average total points scored in those 5 games was 42.5. When playing inside the division, both of these teams tend to play lower scoring games as expected. The average total points scored since the start of last season when TB plays a division opponent was 33.5. The average total points scored since the start of last season when Atlanta plays a division opponent was 41. These teams have combined to play 25 division games since the start of the 2022 season and 16 of those games (64%) have failed to top 40 points. Atlanta has struggled offensively this season scoring just 18.8 PPG and they’ve scored 2 non-offensive TD’s this year so the offensive only scoring numbers are actually worse. They struggle to stay on the field with the 3rd down conversion rate of 26% which is among the worst in the league. TB’s offense has been better scoring wise (24 PPG) but they only average 5.4 YPP which is in the bottom half of the NFL. The Bucs have had 2 higher scoring offensive outputs this season vs the Eagles and Commanders who are poor defenses ranking 30th and 31st in the NFL in YPP allowed. In their other 2 games vs Detroit & Denver they scored 27 total points. Atlanta’s defense is solid (7th in YPP allowed at 4.9) and they have allowed 26 or fewer points in every game this season (21 PPG allowed average). Low scoring game here. |
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09-30-24 | Seahawks v. Lions -3.5 | Top | 29-42 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
#292 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -3.5 over Seattle Seahawks, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Seattle comes into this game with a 3-0 record be we feel they are vastly overvalued early in the season. They’ve played 3 cupcake games thus far and now are finally on the road vs a legit playoff type team. They’ve played Denver with a rookie QB making his first ever start, @ New England (won in OT), and then vs Miami with Skylar Thompson at QB. Their overall numbers, especially on defense, are not as good as they may seem. Seattle ranks #1 vs the pass but again they’ve faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson. Now they face Jared Goff at home where he has won 13 of his last 16 games and his home stats have been fantastic (70% completion rate last year with 19 TD’s). In their only road game, Seattle struggled to slow down New England’s running game (185 yards on 5.1 YPC) and now they face a Detroit rushing attack that rates 4th in the NFL at 163 YPG. Seattle is also really banged up on defense with potentially 4 starters out for this game and a few more in the 2 deep will have to sit as well. One of Goff’s rare home losses was last year vs this Seattle team. Detroit outplayed the Hawks averaging more YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempts but lost in OT. The Lions turned the ball over 3 times in that OT loss (0 for Seattle) including a pick 6 which was the difference in the game. A little extra motivation for Detroit in this one. The line value is solid as Detroit was favored by 5 here last year, they were favored over playoff team Tampa Bay by 7.5 just a few weeks ago and last week on the road they were -3 @ Arizona. This is a big home game for the Lions who are 2-1 and take the road for 4 of their next 5 games. They lead the NFL in YPG margin at +106 and if they avoid the turnover bug, we like them to win this game by at least a TD. |
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09-29-24 | Bills v. Ravens -2 | Top | 10-35 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
#288 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -2 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is a much more important game for the Ravens who sit with a 1-2 record while the Bills have gotten off to a 3-0 start. Baltimore has outgained each of their opponents by a combined 265 yards including topping KC by 100 yards in a week 1 loss on the road. Their 28-25 win @ Dallas last week was a bit deceiving with the Ravens rolling out to a 28-6 lead in the 4th quarter before taking their foot off the gas. They won’t make that mistake again as Dallas scored 3 TDs in the final 9:00 minutes to make it tighter than it should have been with Baltimore holding a 7.6 to 5.9 YPP edge in that game. Buffalo is on the road on a short week after beating a bad Jacksonville team (0-3 record) on Monday night. The Bills had to come from 14 points down in their opener to nip Arizona and then faced an overvalued Miami team that lost QB Tagovailoa during the game. Buffalo is good but overvalued right now in our opinion. The host Ravens are averaging 203 YPG rushing on a league high 5.9 YPC and they should be able to take advantage of a Buffalo defense that has allowed 4.7 YPC (22nd) and is playing without their top 2 LB’s. When facing a mobile QB in week 1 (Arizona’s Kyler Murray) the Bills allowed 125 yards rushing on 5.0 YPC and allowed Murray to rush for over 10 YPC. Now they face the best running QB in the league. On the flip side, the Bills have also transitioned to a heavier rushing attack this year but they are now facing a Baltimore defense that ranks #1 in the NFL giving up just 50 rushing YPG on 2.8 YPC. The Ravens cannot afford to drop to 1-3 with 3 of their next 4 games on the road. Lamar Jackson is 27-4 ATS in regular season games when favored by less than 3 points or an underdog. This is a huge home game for Baltimore and we like them to win and cover. |
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09-29-24 | Commanders v. Cardinals -3.5 | 42-14 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
#280 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals -3.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 4 PM ET - This is a solid situational spot for the Cards at home. They lost last weekend here vs Detroit and played very poorly on offense. The Lions were a bit desperate as well coming off a home loss vs TB. The prior week, Arizona destroyed the LA Rams at home 41-10 outgaining LA 7.9 YPP to just 4.7 YPP. That’s the same Rams team that, while banged up, turned around and beat the 49ers last Sunday. This will be Arizona’s 3rd straight home game prior to playing 3 of their next 4 on the road so an important game for them here. Washington is making the long trip west on a short week after upsetting Cincinnati on Monday night 38-33. The Commanders were outgained in the win 7.3 to 6.2 YPP and on the ground 6.2 YPC to 3.4 YPC. Arizona’s offense should get back on track here facing a Washington defense that ranks 31st in YPP allowed, 30th in YPC allowed, 30th in PPG allowed, and dead last in 3rd down conversion rate allowed. This is Washington’s 3rd road game in the first 4 weeks and we look for this young team to struggle after a win and now on a short week. The Cards have already faced 2 high level opponents (Buffalo & Detroit) yet their YPP margin is a solid +0.5. Washington, on the other hand, has been outgained on the year with a YPP margin of -0.7 which is 8th worst in the NFL despite their 2-1 record. This is a huge home game for Arizona and we’ll call for them to win this one by more than a FG. |
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09-29-24 | Bengals -4.5 v. Panthers | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show | |
#271 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Bengals are 0-3 but they’ve outgained every opponent on YPP basis and they sit at 7th in the NFL in YPP margin. This is an absolute must win for the Bengals as they cannot afford to drop to 0-4. In their only other road game this season Cincy lost 26-25 @ Kansas City but had more yardage and better YPP numbers than the host Chiefs in that one. KC got a late pass interference call on 4th and long vs Cincinnati that set them up for the game winning FG. Last week the Bengals lost 38-33 vs Washington but once again, they completely outplayed the Commanders with 435 to 356 yards along with outgaining them by +1.1 YPP. They are back at full strength offensively with WR Higgins back and they should big success vs a Carolina defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in total defense, YPP allowed, and 3rd down conversion percentage. Carolina lost first 2 games (Saints & Chargers) by combined score of 73-13 and then made the switch last week to Andy Dalton at QB. The Panthers looked much better and picked up their first win of the season. However, we often see a team have a 1 game boost when switching QB’s with the team rallying. They caught the Raiders in a rough spot as well after upsetting Baltimore on the road a week earlier despite getting drastically outplayed in the stats. The entire problem for Carolina was not simply the QB situation. They have won only 3 of their last 20 games and now facing a desperate team that many considered a Super Bowl contender prior to the season. Cheap price here as well at -4.5. If this game would have been played a few weeks ago it definitely would have been north of a TD and possibly double digits. Bengals on Sunday. |
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09-28-24 | North Carolina +2.5 v. Duke | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON North Carolina +2.5 over Duke, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We were on James Madison last weekend vs UNC and picked up a solid win. We’ll switch it up this Saturday and take the Heels getting points @ Duke. Last week’s 70-50 loss for the Tar Heels was a bit deceiving. The yardage with JMU was basically dead even (616 to 612) but UNC lost the turnover margin at -4 (5 turnovers for UNC and 1 for JMU). Not only that, those turnovers turned into points for as the Dukes scored TD’s on a pick 6 and a blocked punt along with 2 other UNC giveaways that also turned into 2 touchdowns. The defense was obviously shredded but prior to last weekend that unit had played well allowing just 15.6 PPG through their first 3 games. The defense was embarrassed last week and we look for a huge effort on that side of the ball Saturday against a Duke offense that isn’t very explosive. The Devils rank outside the top 90 in total offense, YPP offense, and rushing offense. Duke is 4-0 but we haven’t been overly impressed. They struggled to beat UConn at home a few weeks ago 26-21 and they were outrushed 4.8 YPC to 3.6 YPC in that game. Last week they faced one of the worst teams in the nation, Middle Tennessee State, and while the final score looked solid (45-17 win) they only outgained the Blue Raiders by 45 yards. MTSU won in the trenches as well outrushing Duke 4.2 YPC to 3.5 YPC but the Raiders had 4 turnovers. UNC head coach Mack Brown apologized to his team after last week’s loss and they’ve rallied around him this week. We expect a big effort from the Heels. North Carolina has dominated this series winning 28 of the last 33 meetings. They were a dog in only 4 of those 33 match ups and covered all 4. We like UNC to win this game outright. |
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09-28-24 | Navy v. UAB +4.5 | 41-18 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
#166 ASA PLAY ON UAB +4.5 over Navy, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This is one of the best situational spots on the board in our opinion. UAB had last week off so 2 full weeks to prepare for Navy’s offense which is key since this is not an offense most teams see on a weekly basis. Navy, on the other hand, is coming off a big upset win over Memphis 56-44 last week and they have Air Force next week. We were on Navy last week in that spot as Memphis was in a poor situation on the road for the 2nd straight week after upsetting Florida State a week earlier. In that game, Memphis actually outgained the Middies by 94 yards and had 11 more first downs. Prior to facing Memphis in a perfect spot last week, Navy had played FCS Bucknell and Temple, one of the worst FBS teams. Now they take the road for the first time this season vs a team that really needs a win after losing @ Arkansas in a fairly close game 37-27 the week before their bye. Despite their 1-2 record, UAB has outgained their opponents in YPG and YPP margin this season. Their offense should do some damage vs a tired Navy defense that was on the field for a whopping 95 snaps last Saturday. When these 2 met last season Navy was a home underdog and upset UAB. Now they are laying points in the road just a year later which is too large of an adjustment according to our power ratings. We like UAB here. |
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09-28-24 | Buffalo v. Connecticut -5.5 | 3-47 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
#134 ASA PLAY ON UConn -5.5 over Buffalo, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Buffalo is coming off a huge conference upset topping Northern Illinois last week as 14 point dogs. They topped the Huskies 23-20 in OT despite getting outgained 359 to 184. They caught NIU coming off a win over Notre Dame in their previous contest so a perfect spot for the Bulls to catch the Huskies. After that huge win, Buffalo now goes on the road again in a somewhat less meaningful non-conference game @ Connecticut. The Huskies are playing solid football right now coming off a 48-14 home win over FAU last weekend. Dating back to the end of last year, UConn has won 4 of their last 6 games with their only losses coming @ Maryland and @ Duke. The offense is very confident right now, especially at home where they’ve scored 111 points in 2 games this season. The Huskies are averaging 6.4 YPP and are one of the better rushing teams in the nation 242 YPG rushing on 5.6 YPC. The Buffalo offense (averaging just 4.5 YPP – 123rd in the nation) will have trouble keeping up in this one. The offense can’t really hang their hat on anything as they rank 99th in rushing and 126th in passing. The Bulls defense ranks 71st vs the run this season and could run out of gas in this one after being on the field for 85 plays and 36+ minutes in last week’s upset. The Huskies have played the tougher schedule so far this year and they have a +125 YPG and +0.8 YPP differentials while Buffalo is -55 YPG and +0.2 YPP. We think UConn is a bit undervalued right now because they haven’t been a very good program as of late. Head coach Jim Mora Jr definitely has the Huskies headed in the right direction. |
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09-28-24 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -5 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
#152 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas State -5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Both teams off losses last week but OSU’s was deceivingly close while KSU was the opposite. Kansas State lost 38-9 as 7 point favorites at BYU (we were on the Cougars in that one). Believe it or not, the Cats outgained BYU by +125 yards and outrushed them 228 to 92. Three turnovers were a killer for KSU in that game. The Wildcats led 6-0 with just over 2:00 minutes remaining in the first half. 4 minutes into the 2nd half (so a 6 minute span) BYU led 31-6 and had TD drives of 5, 29, 27 and 6 yards during that 6 minute span basically putting the game out of reach. Now we get an angry Kansas State team at home that should dominate in the trenches. They are averaging 240 yards on the ground on 6.5 YPC facing an Oklahoma State defense that ranks outside the top 100 at stopping the run. KSU yards per carry differential (YPC offense minus YPC they allow on defense) is +3.7. OSU’s YPC differential is -1.3 and they rank outside the top 100 both rushing on offense and stopping the run on defense as we mentioned above. OSU looked like they gave Utah a battle last week losing 22-19. Fact is the Cowboys were down 22-3 at home in that game with less than 6 minutes remaining. They were outgained 457 to 285 and outrushed 250 to 48. On top of that, Utah’s starting QB Rising didn’t play and the Utes started a freshman at QB and still dominated. These two both have 3-1 record and have played a very similar strength of schedule, yet KSU has a YPP differential of +1.3 while OSU is -0.2. Last time OSU visited Manhattan KS 2 years ago, they left with a 48-0 loss. Last year the Wildcats were favored by 11.5 AT Oklahoma State and lost in a upset. This year at home they are laying just -5 and we look for a dominating with for the home team. |
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09-27-24 | Washington +2.5 v. Rutgers | 18-21 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
#107 ASA PLAY ON Washington +2.5 over Rutgers, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Huskies have played the tougher schedule to date and have the much better overall stats. After 4 games, UW is 12th nationally in YPG and YPP margin outgaining their opponents by +220 YPG and by +3.3 YPP. Compare that to Rutgers, who has played the much weaker schedule, with the Knights sitting at +125 YPG and +1.5 YPP. Washington played their first Big 10 game last weekend and dominated Northwestern holding the Cats to 112 total yards on just 2.1 YPP in that 24-5 win. Their lone loss came vs an undefeated Washington State team 24-19 in a game the Huskies outgained the Cougars 452 to 381 and were stopped at the 1-yard line which ended the game. Rutgers is 3-0 but they’ve played a cupcake schedule – ranked 193rd strength of schedule by Sagarin who includes FCS teams – thus the Scarlet Knights slate this year is easier than a good number of FCS teams. They opened the season with a win over FCS Howard and then took out Akron who is rated as the 4th worst FBS team per Sagarin. Last week Rutgers upset Va Tech on the road 26-23. However, the Hokies won the stat sheet averaging 5.9 YPP to 5.5 for Rutgers. The problem was, VT had 3 turnovers which led to Rutgers running 77 offensive snaps to just 54 for the Hokies. Even with that, the Knights couldn’t pull away and won on a late FG with under 2:00 minutes remaining. Now they come home a bit overvalued with their 3-0 record. The better team is getting points here (better YPP on both sides of the ball), if they can cope with the long travel spot, we think Washington will win this game outright. |
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09-27-24 | Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL -17.5 | 34-38 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
#106 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL -17.5 over Virginia Tech, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ll need to watch the weather closely here with Hurricane Helene on the gulf side Thursday night which could affect the weather here. Right now it looks like it should be OK with 10 to 15 MPH winds and not much, if any, rain during the game. Va Tech has been a disappointment so far this season. Tabbed as a team that could compete for the ACC title, they sit at just 2-2 with a road loss @ Vandy and home loss vs Rutgers. They are 1-3 ATS with their only cover coming vs a bad Old Dominion team that has yet to win a game. The Hokies are outside the top 65 in both total offense and total defense and their YPP margin is barely above water at +0.4. Tonight they face a Miami team that ranks in the top 10 in both total offense (2nd) and total defense (10th) on the season. The Canes YPP differential is 3rd best in the country at +4.4. They have won each of their games by at least 24 points and they are winning by an average of +39 PPG. That includes road wins @ Florida and @ USF. Last week @ South Florida, a game we thought was very dangerous for the Canes, Miami simply dominated in their 50-15 win with almost 600 yards on 9.4 YPP. That was vs a USF team that gave Alabama all they could handle on the road this year trailing just 13-12 in the 4th quarter before the Tide picked up some late TD’s. VT will have big time struggles on offense here as they rely fairly heavily on the run. They are not a great passing team ranking outside the top 90 in passing YPG, completions per game, and completion percentage. Problem is, the Miami defense has been a brick wall holding opponents to 64 YPG rushing on 2.5 YPC, top 10 in both stats. This line isn’t all that crazy as last year Miami was a 9 point favorite @ Va Tech and won. That would mean this season we’d expect Miami to be around a 15 to 17 point favorite which is where they are + the Canes are light years better this year than last season. We’re not sure that’s been factored in enough here. Lay it with Miami on Friday Night. |
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09-26-24 | Cowboys -5.5 v. Giants | 20-15 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 3 m | Show | |
ASA play on Dallas Cowboys -5.5 @ NY Giants, 8:20 PM ET - We like the Cowboys to bounce back here off of two tough losses to the Saints and Ravens. New York meanwhile is off a win over the Browns as a big underdog. The Cowboys have owned this series with the Giants with a 13-1 SU record the last 14 meetings and an average +/- in those games of +16PPG. Dallas has covered the spread in six straight meetings versus New York. Last year in the two clashes the Cowboys won 40-0 and 49-17. They outgained the Giants 905/343 in total yards. Dallas was outplayed badly by the Saints two weeks ago, then caught a desperate 0-2 Ravens team last week that had to win. New York was thoroughly beaten by the Vikings in Week 1 then lost to the Commanders, and beat a bad Cleveland team last week. Despite playing much better competition, the Yards Per Play differential is near even for these two teams. The Cowboys have a negative YPP number of minus -0.7. The Giants are minus -0.5YPP. The Dallas D is soft in the middle, but the Giants have a below average rushing attack. New York’s pass defense will be hard pressed to stop the Cowboys and if this game turns into a shootout the G-men don’t have a shot at covering. |
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09-23-24 | Jaguars +5.5 v. Bills | 10-47 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
#477 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 over Buffalo Bills, Monday at 7:30 PM ET -Historically teams that start the season with an 0-2 record hit over 60% ATS in game 3 dating back 10 years and yesterday (Sunday) those teams went 6-1 SU & ATS with the Titan being the only loser. Jacksonville falls into that category on Monday night and we’re getting nearly a full TD with the Jags. They have lost their 2 games by a combined 8 points and they’ve outgained their opponents this season +0.2 YPP. The Jags are also dominating in the trenches 5.4 YPC to 3.8 YPC which will lead to wins in most cases. This Jax defense is undervalued in our opinion and they match up nicely vs this run heavy Buffalo team. The Bills are only averaging 21 pass attempts per game (31st in the NFL) but they will have trouble running on this Jags front 7 that allows barely 100 YPG on the ground and 3.8 YPG which ranks 8th best in the league. The Bills offense has been uber efficient averaging 1 point for every 9 yards gained (2nd in the NFL) which isn’t sustainable. Jacksonville on the other hand has averaged 1 points for every 19.7 yards gained which is very poor and we would expect to improve. The Jaguars have definitely had their chances on offense moving inside their opponents 35 yard line 9 times on their 21 possessions this year but have only 3 TD’s and 35 total points to show for it. Last week they outgained the Browns by +1.3 YPP and outrushed them 6 YPC to 4.3 YPC and somehow lost. The Bills, on the other hand, blew out Miami but were outgained by over 100 yards in the game. They benefitted from 3 Dolphin turnovers and Miami QB Tagovailoa went out with a concussion midway through the 3rd quarter. Jax has faced Buffalo twice in the last 3 years and won both games as an underdog including 25-20 last year outgaining the Bills by 85 yards. This desperate Jags team gives it all on Monday and stays within the number. |
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09-22-24 | Chiefs v. Falcons UNDER 46.5 | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show | |
#475/476 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 46.5 Points - Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - First off, when you make this wager, we recommend you wait until close to kickoff to bet it as the TV totals have been fluctuating up with public money close to the start of the game. The Chiefs have some injury concerns offensively with their top two running backs out, which prompted the signing of Kareem Hunt to the practice squad. KC will start Samaje Perine who was mainly used as a 3rd down back. The Chiefs are also lacking depth at the WR position with Brown on the IR. Yes, Kansas City still has Patrick Mahomes, but this will be a tough matchup for KC against a stout Falcons defense. The Falcons are allowing 4.8YPP (8th), 4.1-Yards Per Rush and the 8th fewest passing yards per game. On the other side of the football, Atlanta will need to stick to its bread and butter by using the run to open up the pass. Ball control will be paramount for the Falcons, in order to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands for as little as possible. Atlanta’s offense is averaging a modest 5.7-Yards Per Play through two games, and rank middle of the pack in most offensive categories. The Chiefs defense is better than their overall statistics. The Chiefs have faced two dynamic offenses in the Ravens and Bengals. KC is giving up 386YPG but are better in terms of Yards Per Play at 5.9YPP. The Falcons offense looked good last week against the Eagles after putting up just 10-points against the Steelers in week 1. Philly did not pressure QB Cousins and let him pick them apart late in the game. Kansas City was 3rd in sacks per game in 2023 and 3rd in sack percentage. The Chiefs are 9th in Yards Per Point allowed, the Falcons are 12th. KC is perceived as a high scoring team, but the reality is they were 14th in PPG last season overall, and put up 21.3PPG on the road. Atlanta is better offensively this season with Cousins, but this team averaged just 18.9PPG a year ago. |
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09-22-24 | Lions v. Cardinals OVER 51.5 | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Over 51.5 Points - Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Despite scoring only 16 points last Sunday, Detroit went up and down field on the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Lions tallied 460 yards and crossed midfield 10 times! They reached the red zone 7 times and only scored 1 TD. Those yardage numbers attached to an average yards per point efficiency would have put Detroit north of 30 points in that game. Because of last week’s struggles deep in Tampa territory, the Lions currently rank 28th in the league in red zone conversion rate after ranking 2nd in that stat a year ago. We expect them to move the ball well again this week vs a poor Arizona defense but look for the Lions to take advantage and put plenty of points on the board Sunday. Arizona’s offense looks very good early in the season scoring 28 and 41 points in their 2 games this season. The Cards rank 5th in the NFL averaging over 6 YPP and they are averaging 43 yards per possession which is #1 in the NFL. Arizona’s defense looked solid last week vs a Rams offense that is depleted beyond belief with their 2 top WR’s out along with most of their offensive line. A week earlier, the Cards allowed Buffalo to score 34 points on 6.1 YPP. We see similar results for the Lions in this one. Last week’s Detroit total was set at the exact same number (currently 51.5) despite playing a TB team that has a better defense than Arizona but is not as explosive on offense. Last week’s low scoring game sets this one up nicely with a total that is set too low. Perfect scoring conditions indoors in Phoenix lead to a shootout on Sunday. |
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09-22-24 | Packers v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 30-14 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
#464 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans -2.5 over Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans are backed into a corner here with an 0-2 record and they are in absolute must win mode. They could easily be 2-0 as they outgained each of their first 2 opponents on a YPP basis but they are -4 in turnover margin which is why they are winless. The Titans actually sit 8th in the NFL in YPP margin ahead of this Green Bay team. The Packers starting QB Love is listed as questionable for this one but we can’t imagine they’ll take a chance a play him. He’s not 100% and the Packers have a much bigger game on deck with division rival Minnesota. Our guess is he will return for that match up next Sunday. If that’s the case GB will send Malik Willis out again this week. Last week head coach Matt LaFleur asked very little of Willis as the Packers went run heavy with 53 rushing attempts and just 14 pass attempts. That plan was successful last week vs an Indy defense that has been terrible stopping the run this year already allowing almost 500 yards on the ground in two games. That strategy won’t work vs Tennessee who has an impressive front 7 and has limited their opponents to just 92 YPG rushing and ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense allowing just 206 total YPG. The Titans will take away GB’s run and force Willis to beat them through the air. This Tennessee teams knows what Willis can and can’t do and we expect them to shut down GB’s offense. NFL 0-2 teams in week 3 are 52-33 ATS (61%) over the last decade and Tennessee falls into that mode here. It’s their last hurrah as 0-3 teams almost never make the playoffs. In fact since 2003 there have been 103 teams to start 0-3 and only 1 made the playoffs (2018 Houston Texans). Tennessee is better than their record and GB has a bigger game on deck next week. Titans win and cover. |
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09-21-24 | Memphis v. Navy +9.5 | 44-56 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show | |
#398 ASA PLAY ON Navy +9.5 vs. Memphis, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Navy is the play here as a rested, a potential rush doubling underdog, at home, facing a Memphis team off a HUGE win over Florida State. Navy is once again one of the best rushing offenses in the nation at 298 rushing YPG. Overall, the Mid’s are averaging 6.9YPP (19th) while allowing just 4.8YPP defensively (48th). Of course, we need to temper our enthusiasm with the Navy’s overall numbers as they have faced Temple and Bucknell. Memphis is 3-0 SU/ATS with wins over North Alabama, Troy and Florida State. The Tigers rushing D is ranked 13th allowing just 69RYPG but the two FBS teams they faced rank 100th and 126th in rushing offense. Preparing for the Navy hybrid Wing-T offense is not an easy thing to do and Memphis isn’t in a great schedule situation off their upset win (Tigers HC called it “monumental” and “historic”). Last season when these same two games got together in Memphis, the Tigers were 11-point favorites and won by 4-points despite getting outgained in the game. Memphis has been a road favorite just 9 times since 2020 and they have covered 4 of those games. Navy as an underdog is 19-15 ATS since 2020. |
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09-21-24 | Arkansas v. Auburn OVER 56 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
#365/366 ASA PLAY ON Over 56 Points – Arkansas vs Auburn, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Offenses should dominate in this one on a hot day in Auburn with very little wind expected. Both these 2 SEC teams rank in the top 35 in YPP offense this season with each putting up at least 6.3 YPP. They also both like to play fast with Arkansas running a play every 23 seconds (16th fastest) and Auburn running a play every 25 seconds (31st). The Tigers had 1 stinker offensively this year vs a Cal defense that has allowed less than 10 PPG so far this season. In their other 2 games Auburn has scored 73 & 45 points. The Arkansas defense has looked susceptible giving up 66 points combined in their last 2 games vs Oklahoma State and UAB. Auburn QB Brown made his first start last Saturday and looked solid throwing for 235 yards and 4 TD’s leading the Tigers to 500+ total yards and 45 points. The Razorbacks offense has looked really good all season under the direction of new starting QB Green (transfer from Boise State). They have scored 138 points in 3 games while averaging 587 total yards per game. Both teams have solid QB’s and the weakness of each defense is stopping the pass (85th & 98th in pass defense) so we look for lots of success through the air. When these 2 teams get together, the offenses have thrived putting up more than 56 total points (today’s posted total) in 9 of their last 10 meetings. Let’s play Over in this one. |
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09-21-24 | James Madison +10.5 v. North Carolina | 70-50 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
#329 ASA PLAY ON James Madison +10.5 over North Carolina, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Looks like UNC may start their 3rd string QB in this one, Jacolby Criswell, as they search for a passing game. Criswell entered last week’s game in favor of 2nd stringer Harrell who is struggling to get anything going through the air. Original starting QB Johnson had a season ending injury in their season opener @ Minnesota. Last week’s FCS opponent, NC Central, gave UNC everything they could handle despite the final score. It turned into a blowout win but UNC led just 17-10 in the 4th quarter. That’s an NC Central team that lost 41-19 vs Elon a week prior. JMU gets their shot at a high profile opponent here and they had last week off to get ready for this one. The Dukes should be able to focus on the run defensively in this one vs a one dimensional Tar Heel offense. UNC ranks outside the top 100 in passing YPG, passing attempts per game and completions per game. With very little passing attack, we think it will be tough for the Heels to pull away in this game. JMU steps in with a 2-0 record and these two both played Charlotte this season so we have a solid comparison point. JMU played @ Charlotte, won by 23 points and outgained the 49ers by and impressive +2.9 yards per play. UNC played host to Charlotte, won by 18 and outgained the 49ers by just +0.4 YPP. The Tar Heels remain overvalued by the markets with an 0-7-1 ATS run (vs FBS opponents) losing those games by 75 combined points vs the number. The heels are also just 1-8 ATS their last 9 games when posted as a double digit favorite. UNC has a huge game on deck vs in-state rival Duke and we like James Madison to keep this one close. Take the points. |
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09-20-24 | Illinois v. Nebraska UNDER 43 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 6 m | Show | |
#307/308 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points - Illinois vs Nebraska, Friday at 8 PM ET - It’s the start of Big 10 play for these familiar foes and we look for a low scoring, grinder in Lincoln. The last 2 seasons these rivals have generated 35 and 27 total points. Both defenses are very good this season with Nebraska allowing a total of 20 points combined in their 3 games this year while Illinois has allowed 26 combined points in their 3 games. They each shutdown the good offenses they’ve faced this season with Nebraska giving up just 10 points on 260 yards vs Colorado while Illinois gave up 17 points on 327 yards vs Kansas. Nebraska looks improved offensively, however they’ve faced some suspect defenses (UTEP, Colorado, and Northern Iowa). Despite that, the Huskers rank just 56th in offensive efficiency (YPP). In their game vs the Buffs, who do not have a good defense, the Huskers scored 21 offensive points (they had a pick 6 for their 28 points) and just 334 yards. Freshman QB Raiola has been solid but he now faces a legit defense in his first Big 10 game. Illinois is in the same boat offensively facing some not so great defensive teams (Eastern Illinois, Kansas, and Central Michigan). Despite that, the Illini only rank 74th in offensive efficiency (YPP). In one legit game vs Kansas, the Illini scored 16 offensive points (they had a pick 6 to get to 23 points), and they did not reach 300 total yards. Both offenses are very slow paced with Illinois ranking 121st in seconds per play and Nebraska 115th. Lots of defense in this one and we grab the Under. |
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09-19-24 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 39 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 56 m | Show | |
ASA play on UNDER 39 New England Patriots at NY Jets – 8:20 pm ET -Neither team is very explosive in this match up with the Jets averaging just 5.1 yards per play (20th) while the Pats average 4.6YPP (25th). New York is average in pace of play at 1 play run every 29.4 seconds, the Patriots are the 26th slowest paced team at 32.2 seconds. Defensively both are near league average in terms of yards per play allowed with the Jets allowing 5.4YPP, New England gives up 5.1YPP. It’s obvious what these teams want to do offensively. The Patriots want to limit opponents’ possession with their running game and win tight games with their defense. New England rushes 37.5 times per game which is the 3rd highest rush attempt number in the league. Surprisingly, the Jets only rush it 21.5 times per game, but they effectively use short passes as part of their run package. New York is 23rd in yards per pass attempt at 6.4. New England with QB Brissett are averaging just 5.3 yards per pass attempt and 122.5 passing yards per game. NY understandably gave up points and yards in the opener against a very good San Francisco offense. Last week the Jets D looked better allowing 5.3YPP to the Titans and 17-points. The Titans offense rates similar to this Pats O which has managed 16 and 20-points in their first two games. New England’s offense was tied with Carolina for the lowest scoring team in the league a year ago at 13.9PPG. New York’s offense is still a work in progress and the defense hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, but this is a great opportunity for them to shine on MNF. Last season these two teams produced total points of 20 and 25. They have combined for 39 or less points in 5 of the last six confrontations. New England has played Under in 12 of their last seventeen games overall, the Jets have hit the Under in 11 of their last seventeen. |
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09-16-24 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 46 | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 60 m | Show | |
ASA play on UNDER 46 Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 pm ET - The Falcons were projected to be a contending team in the NFC this season with a stout defense, a veteran QB in Cousins and a young stud running back in Robinson. They didn’t live up to the billing in week 1 but we expect a better showing here, especially defensively. Falcons QB Cousins (coming off a Achilles injury) was very immobile in the opener against the Steelers. He was 16/26 for 155 yards 1 TD/2 INT. The Dirty Birds put up 226 total yards at 4.7 yards per play and 10-points. Much like the Jets w/Rodgers, look for the Falcons to concentrate on the running game with Robinson and protect Cousins with a short passing scheme. Atlanta was good defensively in W1 allowing 4.2YPP, 270 total yards and just 3.3 yards per rush to the Steelers. Philadelphia beat the Packers in the season opener in a high scoring game which has driven this O/U number up. A big reason that the game ended with so many points was due to the unusual number of big plays that resulted in TD’s. There were two scores of over 67-yards and two of 32+. The Eagles allowed 7.4YPP to the Packers as a result of those big hitters. Philly ran it 38 times against the Packers and with wideout Brown expected to miss this game it should be much of the same against the Falcons. We like Under in this one. |
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09-15-24 | Bears v. Texans -6.5 | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
#290 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -6.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Bears showed everyone in week 1 just how explosive they are going to be with rookie QB Caleb Williams under center. Chicago mustered 11 first downs, 84 yards rushing and 64 net yards passing. Williams was 14 of 29 for 93 yards. The Bears blocked a punt for a TD and returned an INT for a touchdown. Houston went into Indianapolis and dominated the Colts who were lucky to cover that game late. The Texans amassed 417 total yards at 5.8YPP, dominated the time of possession by 20 full minutes, were 100% in red zone trips and scored 29-points. RB Joe Mixon of the Texans had a huge rushing game with 159 yards and a touchdown. The Colts and Bears run a similar defensive scheme so expect Mixon/Texans running game to get untracked in a hurry. Once the run game is established QB Stroud and the passing attack can exploit a Bears pass defense that allowed the 25th most passing YPG in 2023. Houston had an average +/- at home last season of +6.9PPG. The Bears road differential was minus -6.6PPG. Chicago lost 5 road games last season by 7 or more points. As long as this line is -7 or less we are on the Texans. |
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09-15-24 | Seahawks v. Patriots UNDER 39 | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
#277/278 ASA PLAY ON Under 39 Points – Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Despite both teams getting wins last week, the defenses looked much better than the offenses. New England scored just 16 points vs the Bengals on only 4.5 YPP. The Pats stuck to the ground game as we expect they will again with 39 rushing attempts and just 24 pass attempts. Starting QB Brissett is not a QB that strikes fear in opposing defenses and he passed for only 120 yards on 4.8 yards per attempt. They were the only team in the NFL last week without a an offensive play that went more than 20 yards. Now they face a very solid Seattle defense with new HC Macdonald who was the coordinator of the Ravens high end defense the last 2 seasons. The Pats offense will struggle on Sunday. Seattle’s offense put up 26 points last week but barely averaged 5.0 YPP. Starting RB Walker accounted for more than one-third of Seattle’s entire offense last week and it looks like he won’t play on Sunday due to an oblique injury. That’s a big loss for this offense that also prefers to run the ball (33 rush attempts / 25 pass attempts). New England’s defense is high level. They completely shut down Cincy’s offense and Joe Burrow (154 yards passing) last week giving up just 10 points on 224 total yards. New England is 10-6 to the Under last 2 years at home with average total points scored just 36. This should be an ugly offensive game and we don’t project either team to reach 20 points. Take the Under |
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09-15-24 | Saints v. Cowboys -5.5 | Top | 44-19 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
#268 ASA PLAY ON Dallas Cowboys -5.5 over New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 PM ET - New Orleans looked great last week at home but their opponent may have had a lot to do with that. Carolina simply looked inept on both sides of the ball. The Saints scored 47 points on just 379 total yards for a ridiculous average of 1 point for every 8 yards gained. Part of that was field position with New Orleans having scoring drives (TD or FG) of 1, 9, 16, and 36 yards. QB Carr has zero pressure and completed 82% of his passes because of that. That won’t happen this week vs a Dallas defensive front that is among the best in the NFL. The Cowboys had 6 sacks last week vs Cleveland and finished in the top 8 last season in sack percentage. They’ll be facing a Saints offensive line that was solid last week but came into the season ranked 31st per PFF so maybe an aberration last week vs a poor team. Dallas was also impressive last week and played a much better opponent and they were on the road. They dominated the Browns 33-17 holding Cleveland’s offense to just 3.3 YPP. The Browns scored a TD with under 30 seconds left in that one to make it look more respectable than it actually was. Now we get Dallas at home where they’ve been dominant winning 16 straight regular season games by an average margin of +17.5 PPG. Only 3 of those 16 straight regular season wins came by less than 6 points which is today’s spread. Dallas outscored their opponents at home by 172 points last season which was tops in the NFL. As you might expect with those numbers, Dak Prescott’s home and road splits last season were drastically different. At home he completed 73% of his passes for almost 2,500 yards, 22 TD’s and just 3 picks. He should have lots of success vs a New Orleans secondary that might be without their top CB Lattimore. Cowboys by double digits |
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09-14-24 | Air Force v. Baylor -16 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
#186 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -16.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This ain’t the Air Force team of the last few seasons. Not even close. The Falcons lost nearly everyone from last year’s team and rank outside the top 100 in returning yardage, returning tackles, and returning offensive line starts. The problem is, when Air Force loses that much talent, they aren’t the team that just pays kids to come in from the portal and replace them. They are going with what they have and it hasn’t been pretty so far this season. The Falcons struggled in week 1 to beat FCS Merrimack and AF was actually outgained 3.8 YPP to 3.4 YPP. Even more concerning for heavy running Air Force, they were outgained on the ground 4.2 YPG to 3.0 YPC. That was vs a Merrimack team that turned around and played a bad UConn team last week and lost 63-17 getting outgained 625 to 279 vs the Huskies. AF played San Jose State in week 2 and lost again averaging only 3.0 YPC. For a heavy running team that has completed only 13 passes in 2 games to average only 3.0 YPC is a big problem. Now they face a Baylor team that is far more talented and deep compared to Merrimack and San Jose State. The Bears should be hungry here coming off a 23-12 loss @ Utah who many feel is the best team in the Big 12 this season. On top of that, they lost to Air Force in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl giving them a little extra motivation. Baylor QB Finn, transfer from Toledo, will give the AF defense big problems with his running ability, after the Falcons faced 2 non-mobile QB’s in the first 2 weeks. Baylor is the much more athletic and deeper team here which will be key as this one is being played in 90+ degree temps in Waco. Baylor wears down AF and rolls to a big win. |
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09-14-24 | Oregon v. Oregon State +17 | 49-14 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
#140 ASA PLAY ON Oregon State +17 over Oregon, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The Ducks have been as underwhelming in 2 wins as any team in the country. While they are 2-0 SU, Oregon is 0-2 ATS losing by an average of almost 4 TD’s each game to the spread! They seem to be trying to find their way offensively after losing almost 70% of their offensive yards last year including QB Nix to the NFL. Gabriel (Oklahoma transfer) is the new QB and while he’s been solid, their running game has been nearly non-existent with 107 yards on the ground vs Idaho and 112 last week vs Boise State. The Broncos had more than double Oregon’s yardage on the ground last week and held the Ducks to 352 total yards. That’s the same Boise defense that allowed 45 points and 460 yards to Georgia Southern a week earlier. It looks like Oregon State should control the trenches here. We mentioned the Ducks struggles to run the ball but that hasn’t been a problem for the Beavers who have outrushed their opponents 599 to 154 through 2 weeks. The Oregon defense allowed almost 7 YPC last week vs Boise so we look for OSU to have plenty of success running the ball in this game. Last week many in our industry felt Oregon would bounce back at home vs Boise after almost losing to Idaho. It didn’t happen as the Ducks were outplayed at home in their tight 37-34 win and if not for a 100 yard kick return AND an 85 yard punt return for TD by Oregon, the Broncos win that game fairly easily. Now they are laying 17 points on the road against OSU in the Beavers most important game of the season. We just don’t see it. Oregon State has covered 4 in a row at home vs Oregon and we’re grabbing the points. |
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09-14-24 | West Virginia v. Pittsburgh +2 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
#142 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh +2 over West Virginia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - It’s time for the Backyard Brawl when the Pitt Panthers take on the West Virginia Mountaineers. Pitt is looking for revenge after a 6-17 loss a year ago. In our opinion, the Panthers are an undervalued team right with a 2-0 SU/ATS record. Pitt opened the season with a resounding home win over Kent State 55-24 as a -24-point chalk. Last week they went to Cincinnati and won 28-27 as a 2-point dog. Pitt hired O-coordinator Kade Bell in the offseason and it’s immediately paying dividends with a unit that’s averaging 534 YPG, 7.2 YPP and rushing for nearly 200 YPG. The Panthers have gotten great QB play out of freshman Eli Holstein (Bama transfer) and running back Desmond Reid who is averaging 8.9 yards/rush. Holstein has thrown for over 300+ yards in the Panthers first two games. We are not sold on this West Virginia team that lost badly in the opener to Penn State 12-34 at home as a +7.5-point underdog, then beat weakling Albany last week 49-14 as a 38-point favorite. If we focus on the game against Penn State, the Neers managed just 246 total yards of offense and 3.7 yards/play. PSU put up 457 yards against West Virginia at 7.6 YPP. Penn State then hosted a bad Bowling Green team last week and allowed 375 total yards and 27-points. West Virginia doesn’t look as good as preseason expectations, and Pittsburgh looks much better than originally thought. Pitt is on a 4-1 ATS run in home games. The Neers had a negative point differential of minus -3.6 PPG on the road last season. We like the Pitt Panthers at home in this rivalry. |
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09-14-24 | Washington State v. Washington -5.5 | Top | 24-19 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
#138 ASA PLAY ON Washington -5.5 over Washington State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This game is in Seattle at the Seahawks home stadium. Washington lost a ton of production off of last year’s team that played for the National Championship but they’ve been flying under the radar so far this season. New HC Jedd Fisch, who led Arizona to a 10-3 record last year, and new QB Rogers who transferred from Mississippi State, have this team clicking early in the year. They are currently 8th in the nation in YPP differential at +4.5. They handled one of the top team in FCS, Weber State, 35-3 and outgained them by 230 yards. Last week they beat Eastern Michigan 30-9 but the stats were much worse than that with the Huskies outgained the Eagles by 300 yards. Wazzou is in a similar situation losing nearly all of their production from last year (113th in returning yards & 109th in returning tackles). The Cougars beat Portland State (bad FCS team) to open the season and then beat Texas Tech in Pullman last week. Tech had a multitude of key players that had to sit out that game including top RB Boyd along with a number of defensive starters and the Red Raiders had 4 turnovers in that game. While Washington and Washington State haven’t played a common opponent, let’s focus on their FCS opponents in week 1. That’s because those 2 opponents played each other in week 2. As we mentioned, the Huskies outgained Weber State by 230 yards in week 1. Wazzou outgained Portland State by 185 yards in week 1. Weber State played Portland State last week and rolled to an easy 43-16 win outgaining PSU by 300 yards! You get the point. Washington has covered 16 of the last 23 meetings in this rivalry along with 12 of the last 14 SU. Huskies get another won and cover in Seattle on Saturday. |
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09-13-24 | Arizona v. Kansas State -7 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 44 h 15 m | Show | |
#110 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State -7 over Arizona, Friday at 8 PM ET - We’ve been underwhelmed by Arizona this year as they transition to a new coaching staff and now play their first road game of the season. The Cats new HC Brennan came over from San Jose State replacing Jedd Fisch who took the head job at Washington. In their first 2 games this season, both at home, Zona topped a terrible New Mexico team 61-39 and then struggled last week with FCS Northern Arizona but ultimately came out on top 22-10. Both scores were a bit misleading as Arizona only led by 10 vs New Mexico late in the 3rd quarter and then were trailing at halftime last week vs NAU. They rolled up big yards on New Mexico, who may have the worst defense in the nation, but that was expected after the Lobos allowed FCS Montana State to put up 567 yards in week 1 loss for NM. Last week the Wildcats only gained 360 total yards vs Northern Arizona who has had 3 consecutive losing seasons at the FCS level entering this year. Two very low level opponents so far for Zona. KSU had a scare last week @ Tulane but found a way to come out on top 34-27. That wasn’t a huge surprise as the Green Wave look very solid again this year after finishing with an 11-3 record last year. So while KSU did struggle in that game, they’ve at least played a team with a pulse and on the road while still finding a way to win. KSU run game has been very good with a solid offensive line, a mobile QB (Avery Johnson) and 2 very solid RB’s. They’ve already rushed for 500 yards on 7.8 YPC in their 2 wins this season. While Arizona’s defense did limit NAU on the ground last week (which they should vs an inferior FCS school) in week 1 they allowed New Mexico to run for 5.5 YPC. KSU is a tough place to play with the Wildcats winning 8 of their last 9 here with all 8 wins coming by at least 13 points. They’ve also covered 7 of those 9 games. We like the stability (same coaching staff & 18 upperclassmen starting) for KSU while Arizona travels for the first time under their new regime. Zona struggled to put teams away at home when favored by -28 and -37 points in their first 2 games and we like Kansas State to win by more than a TD here. |
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09-12-24 | Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 49 | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
ASA play on UNDER 49 Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins, 8:20 PM ET - Miami has some questions on offense with their top two RB’s likely out (Mostert & Achane). On the other side of the football Miami could have problems pressuring Allen and the Bills with LB Bradley Chubb out and LB Jaelan Phillips less than 100%. Both defenses allowed less than 300 total yards last week against potentially explosive offenses of the Jaguars and Cardinals. The Bills new offensive philosophy is run heavy as we saw in week 1 as they attempted 23 passes and 33 runs in the game against the Cardinals. Last week’s game against the Cardinals was a misleading final as 21 of the combined 62 points came with under 9:00 minutes to play in the game. Arizona averaged 9.6 yards per point, an unusually low number based on league average. The Bills averaged a point scored every 10.4 yards gained which is also significantly better than the 14-yards per point they averaged last season. Both teams played slow last week at 18th and 21st in pace of play. Last year these same two teams were 24th and 26th in POP. The trend when these rivals met is high scoring games in Buffalo and low scoring affairs in Miami. The last three meetings on this field between these two teams resulted in 35, 40 and 35 total points. We expect a defensive battle and like Under the Total. |
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09-09-24 | Jets v. 49ers UNDER 43.5 | 19-32 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 16 m | Show | |
ASA play on UNDER 43.5 NY Jets @ San Francisco 49ers, Monday 8:20 PM ET - The Niners were the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL last season at 28.6ppg. On average it took them 13.9 yards/gained to score 1pt. BUT, they faced the 6th easiest schedule against subpar defenses. Late in the season last year the 49ers managed just 17pts versus a similar defense to the Jets in the Ravens D. When New York has the football, it should be a run first approach with RB Hall, a rebuilt O-line and a mindset to protect QB Rodgers in his first game since his injury last year. The Jets still managed 4.2 yards per rush last season when teams stacked the line of scrimmage against them when they didn’t have a QB. The Niners are susceptible to the run as they allowed 4.3YPR last season, 21st most in the NFL. In their 3 playoff games (when it mattered) the 49ers gave up 130, 182 and 136 rushing yards to the Chiefs, Lions & Packers. New York is going to be much better offensively this season with Rodgers than they were last season, but it’s going to be tough sledding in the opener against this San Fran D. SF gave up just 18.8ppg last season, the 4th fewest in the NFL. The Niners were 3rd in Opponents Points per Play at .300. The 49ers red zone D was also one of the best in the league allowing 1.6 TD’s per game. San Fran gave up less than 320ypg last season and 5.1-yards per play, both top 10 numbers. The Jets defense on paper might be the best in the NFL this season. They finished last season 3rd in overall DVOA. NY allowed less than 21ppg and were #1 in the league allowing 4.6 yards per play. The big names in this game have the number set higher than it should be for the public bettors. The Under trends on prime time TV games continues here. |
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09-08-24 | Commanders v. Bucs -3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
#474 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Washington Commanders, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We know opening day underdogs historically do very well, but we will make an exception here with the Bucs at home against a rookie QB making his first NFL start on the road. Tampa Bay’s head coach Todd Boyles is one of the best defensive minds in the game and has been for years. Washington’s QB Daniels is going to be special, but with a limited scheme early on, against a confusing defense is a tall task to ask in his first start. Tampa Bay gave up yards last season but didn’t give up points allowing just 19.2PPG, the 5th lowest number in the league. The Bucs will pressure Daniels with a pass rush that averaged 2.8 sacks per game last season 8th most. Offensively the Bucs have a new O-coordinator in Liam Coen, the former Rams assistant in 2022. Coen contributed to an offense that ranked among league leaders across those seasons in passing yards per game (248.1; sixth), completions (1,504; 10th), first downs per game (21.4; 10th), third-down conversion rate (41.9%; eighth), goal-to-go efficiency (75.2%; ninth), rushing touchdowns (77; fourth), and fewest sacks allowed (139; eighth). Tampa will rely on QB Mayfield and the dynamic duo at WR of Evans and Godwin against a Commander's defense that was last in the league in passing yards per game allowed at 262. Washington allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt (31st) and Tampa hit for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in 2023 (10th). Washington has a new system offensively and defensively with a new coaching staff so it’s going to take time for them to adjust with a rookie QB. Tampa ended last season on a 6-2 SU run and narrowly lost to the Lions in the playoffs. Washington closed the year by losing 7 straight. It’s going to be hot and humid in Tampa and we like the Bucs to roll in this home opener. |
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09-08-24 | Titans +3.5 v. Bears | 17-24 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
#465 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +3.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We think the Bears are overvalued entering this season. Their win total jumped from 8.5 to 9.5 and we just don’t see this team as a 9 or 10 win team. Much of the hype is obviously the QB situation with #1 draft pick Caleb Williams getting the start in this one. While he is talented, the fact is that rooking QB’s simply aren’t very successful especially early in the season. Rookie QB’s starting season openers are just 16-35-1 SU and here not only does Williams and the Bears need to buck that trend, they need to win by margin. Williams is the 19th first overall pick to start in Week 1 at quarterback, and the previous 18 went 3-14-1 SU and 5-12-1 ATS (29%). He’ll be facing a totally revamped Tennessee defense with 7 new starters and a new DC so Chicago won’t know what to expect coming into this one. The Titans offense struggled to throw the ball last season (28th in passing YPG) but that changes in 2024. New HC Callahan is a very good offensive mind (OC for Bengals last year) and we’ve been hearing QB Levis has been making great progress in this new offense. He was 11 of 13 passing in the pre-season and the Titan’s offense looked very good averaging 373 YPG. We realize the pre-season isn’t always a great indicator, but we have no doubt this offense will be much better this season. The Titans have solid weapons on the outside with Ridley, Hopkins (who looks like he’ll play here) and Boyd. The Bears have only been favored only 6 times the last 2 seasons and only 2 of those were by -4 or more. They are just 8-15 ATS as favorite since start of 2019 season. These 2 teams had very similar records (7-10 & 6-11) last season and identical YPP margins. This game should be closer to a pick-em in our opinion and we’re getting this above the key number of 3. Take Tennessee. |
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09-08-24 | Texans v. Colts +3 | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
#470 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +3 vs. Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We get a divisional underdog, at home, playing with revenge. I’m not sure what else needs to be said. Overall, underdogs in W1 typically do very well with a 71-53 ATS record going back to 2016. Divisional dogs in Week 1 are 30-18 ATS going back 48 games in that situation. These same two teams met in the regular season finale last year with the winner advancing to the playoffs. The Texans won that game 23-19 as a 1-point favorite on this same field. The Colts had more total yards 360-306, more first downs and a TOP advantage. The game ended with Indianapolis on the 15-yard line going into score. The Colts did it last season with a backup QB in Minshew and now have a healthy Richardson under center. Indy will focus on the ground game here with RB Taylor healthy and one of the best O-lines in the league. The Colts were 11th in rushing attempts per game last season and 10th in rushing YPG at 121. Houston had very good defensive numbers last season but how much of that was due to playing a soft schedule against some of the league's worst offenses. In fact, the Texans faced 13 offenses ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of DVOA last season. Houston finds themselves in unfamiliar territory here as a road favorite which has happened just 3 times in the past two seasons. They are 1-2 in those games and failed to cover by an average of -10PPG. A lot of hype surrounding Texans QB Stroud and this team, gives us a ton of value with the home team. |
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09-08-24 | Steelers v. Falcons UNDER 41.5 | Top | 18-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
#457/458 ASA PLAY ON Under 41.5 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The QB positions on both sides are not ideal right now. Pittsburgh planned to start Russell Wilson but he has a lingering calf issue. If he plays he won’t be 100% and if he doesn’t it’s inaccurate Justin Fields who has a career completion percentage of barely 60%. Atlanta plans to start Kirk Cousins who is coming off an achilles injury and hasn’t played since last October. We don’t expect Cousins to be successful through the air here with zero game time with his new WR’s. On the other side of the ball, we project both Pittsburgh and Atlanta to be the strengths of each team. Atlanta has added key pieces with safety Simmons and edge rusher Judon bolstering an already top 10 defense in YPG, YPP, and PPG. The Birds also have a new HC Morris who is one of the better defensive minds in the NFL so we look for a very good stop unit in Atlanta this season. Pittsburgh will struggle big time on offense in this game. The Steelers played both Wilson & Fields quite a bit in the pre-season yet they only scored a total of 32 points in 3 games. Atlanta averaged just 19 PPG last season (26th in the NFL) and will most likely rely heavily on the run in order to protect Cousins early in the season. Pittsburgh averaged just 18 PPG so we have 2 bottom 7 scoring offenses from last season going at it here. Steeler games averaged 38 total points last year and Atlanta games averaged 41 total points. Pittsburgh has been a huge money maker playing Unders in their road games with a 50-20 record to the Under the last 9 years. Low scoring game here. |
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09-07-24 | Georgia Southern v. Nevada | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
#368 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada pick-em over Georgia Southern, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Nevada has been a surprise this year taking a good SMU team to the wire and then turning around the next week and beating Troy on the road as 8 point underdogs (we were on Troy unfortunately). We felt Nevada was in a really tough spot last week after nearly upsetting SMU then having to travel across the country and play in the heat and humidity @ Troy (Alabama). The Trojans have an outstanding program (23-5 record the previous 2 seasons) and the Wolfpack got down 14-0 early and battled back for a 28-26 win. Very impressive. The Wolfpack have run the ball very well with 214 yards rushing last week vs good Troy defense on 6.3 YPC. The week prior they outgained SMU on the ground by +0.5 YPC and last week outgained Troy on the ground by +1.0 YPC. That rushing success should continue on Saturday as they face Georgia Southern defense that allowed 371 yards rushing on over 10 YPC vs Boise last week. GSU gave Boise a decent run losing 56-45 but it really wasn’t that close as the Broncos outgained the Eagles by almost 200 yards despite running 20 fewer offensive snaps. The final count on a yards per play basis was Boise 9.9, GSU 5.4. We like Nevada’s new HC Choate who led a very good Texas defense the previous season and before that had an impressive run as the head man @ Montana State. He has this team playing hard and with confidence. They should catch Georgia Southern in a tough spot here after giving everything they had last week trying to upset Boise and now making the long travel west. GSU is not trustworthy laying points on the road (or pick-em) as they’ve only won 7 of their last 29 road tilts outright. As you might expect looking at those numbers, the Eagles are just 4-10 ATS as road favorites since 2015 (lined opened with GSU favored and now pick-em). Nevada gets the win on Saturday. |
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09-07-24 | South Carolina v. Kentucky -9 | 31-6 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
#332 ASA PLAY ON Kentucky -9 over South Carolina, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Both won in last week’s season openers but we were less than impressed with South Carolina. The Gamecocks trailed midway through the 4th quarter, scored a TD and then held on for dear life to win 23-19 as a 20+ point favorite vs Old Dominion. We could argue that Old Dominion actually outplayed South Carolina in that game with a 305 to 288 total yardage edge despite the Gamecocks running 17 more offensive snaps. Because of that, the YPP numbers were heavily in favor of the Monarchs (4.2 YPP to 3.2 YPP). Looking even closer, South Carolina scored 2 TD’s in the game and those points came on drives of 3 yards and 6 yards after ODU turnovers. The Monarchs 2 TD’s were both 75 yard drives. SC was a heavy favorite, had a +3 turnover margin in the game and still almost lost at home. Very concerning. Kentucky rolled over Southern Miss last week 31-0 in a game that was called for bad weather early in the 3rd quarter. New Wildcat QB Vandagriff, former 5* transfer from Georgia, looked solid completing 12 of 18 passes with 3 TD’s in just over one half of football. The Cats completely controlled the trenches with 148 yards rushing (they were on pace for close to 300 if game was suspended) while holding USM to just 5 yards rushing. Meanwhile, South Carolina failed to dominate on the line of scrimmage averaging just 3.1 YPC vs ODU while allowing 3.2 YPC. This is a revenger after South Carolina won at home last season 17-14 vs Kentucky despite getting whipped in the trenches with the Wildcats averaging 4.5 YPC while holding SC to 1.5 YPC. Kentucky’s 3 turnovers were the difference in that game. Head coach Stoops was very upset after that loss and has been pointing toward this game early in the 2024 schedule. “That’s a very difficult loss for us right there. We didn't do a better job of putting them in position to be successful,” Stoops said. We like Kentucky to win this one by double digits. |
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09-07-24 | Georgia Tech v. Syracuse +3 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
#306 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse +3 over Georgia Tech, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Our power ratings have Cuse as a slight favorite so we like the value with the home team here. Tech steps in with a 2-0 record after beating Florida State in Ireland and then topping Georgia State at home last weekend. Because of those wins this line is off in our opinion. Their 24-21 win over FSU doesn’t look as impressive after the Noles were rolled at home by Boston College last week. Their win last Saturday over Georgia State was nothing great vs a Panther team that lost most of their key players and is working under a brand new coaching staff. GSU had 2 first and goal situations inside the Georgia Tech 3 yard line and came away with just 3 points. Syracuse topped a solid Ohio team, one of the top teams in the MAC, at home last week 38-22. We were a little concerned by their rush defense in that win, but the offense looked very solid with nearly 500 total yards. New starting QB McCord, former Ohio State starter, threw for 354 yards and 4 TD’s. He should look good on Saturday vs a GT defense that faced 2 poor passing QB’s in their first 2 games. Last year this ACC match up was played @ Georgia Tech, because of injuries the Orange had to start a tight end at QB, and the line was -6.5 in favor of the host (Tech won by 9). Now the line has shifted only 3 points and Cuse will be at home and actually playing one of the better signal callers in the ACC at QB. GT has won only 14 of last 44 road games dating back to 2015 and they are just 2-9 ATS as RF during that same span. We like Syracuse at home as a dog. |
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09-06-24 | Duke v. Northwestern -2.5 | 26-20 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 11 m | Show | |
#304 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern -2.5 over Duke, Friday at 9 PM ET - Northwestern should have some extra motivation here after getting rolled 38-14 @ Duke last season. Don’t be scared off by that final score as the Blue Devils are a completely different team this season. Their QB in that game Riley Leonard is now starting at Notre Dame. Duke lost nearly their entire offensive line (119th in returning starts) and defensive line from a year ago. They are 130th in lettermen returning and their coaching staff has completely turned over with Manny Diaz as the head man after Mike Elko left for Texas A&M. The Wildcats have the much more stable situation here with 15 starters back, the 4th most returning lettermen in college football, along with the same coaching staff. NW had a solid win in week 1 beating MAC favorite Miami OH 13-6 and holding the Redhawks to just 40 yards rushing on 24 carries. That’ll be a problem for Duke who struggled big time to run the ball vs FCS Elon tallying just 59 yards rushing on 27 carries. Duke new QB Murphy had a solid day but with winds expected to be around 20 MPH right along the Lake Michigan shore (NW’s makeshift stadium this year is only a few yards from Lake Michigan) on Friday night, the team that runs the ball better should come out on top here. We think that’s Northwestern. |
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09-06-24 | Packers v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 68 h 28 m | Show | |
ASA play on OVER 48.5 Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Friday 8:20 PM ET (Brazil) - We are typically reluctant to play Overs on prime-time TV games but will make an exception here. These two teams are much better on one side of the football than the other and it starts with the offenses for both teams. When it comes to DVOA rankings the Packers had the 6th best offense in the NFL a year ago, the Eagles were 9th. The Packers averaged 5.7PPG on offense good for 6th best, the Eagles ranked 13th in Yards Per Play at 5.4. Both teams had explosive offenses. It took Philadelphia on average 14.3 yards gained per point (7th), Green Bay averaged 145.3YPPT (11th). On the defensive side of the football both teams struggled. The Eagles were 4th from the bottom of the league in defensive DVOA, the Packers weren’t much better ranking 27th. Philadelphia gave up 25.6PPG on the season, while Green Bay allowed 21.4PPG. The Packers numbers are slightly better than they should be as they faced 12 opponents last season that ranked in the bottom half of the league in total offense. The Eagles allowed 30+ points in 5 of their last eight games last season and Green Bay with QB Love scored 30+ in 3 of their last five games. We expect both teams to get into the mid-to-high 20’s in this game which will push this Over the number. |
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09-06-24 | Packers v. Eagles -2 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
#454 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -2 over Green Bay Packers, Friday at 8:20 PM ET – Game being played in Brazil - We think the Eagles will have a huge chip on their shoulders entering this season after losing 6 of their last 7 games a year ago including an embarrassing 32-9 loss in the playoffs to Tampa Bay. The fact is, they were very banged up down the stretch, including QB Hurts who was nowhere near 100% in the 2nd half of the season. They also upgraded big time at both coordinator positions which will help dramatically in 2024. Kellen Moore will call the offensive plays after successful stints at Dallas and LA Chargers where his teams averaged 26 points in his 5 years as coordinator. Vic Fangio, one of the top defensive minds in the NFL, will handle the stop unit. The Eagles fell off a cliff last year after finishing #1 in total defense in 2022 they dropped to 26th last season and we expect a big improvement under Fangio. The Packers are a bit overvalued in our opinion. Let’s not forget this team was just 9-8 last season, squeaked into the playoffs at a 7 seed after beating Carolina, Minnesota (with Nick Mullens at QB), and then Chicago to close out the season. Their win over Dallas in the playoffs was impressive but how good is this team? Their defense needs to take a huge step forward under new DC Hafley (HC at Boston College last year) after finishing 22nd in total defense each of the last 2 seasons. The favorite has been money in the bank in NFL International Games with a SU record of 33-10-1 and a spread record of 29-15 (66%). We’ll call for Philly to win this one by a FG or more. |
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09-05-24 | Ravens v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 57 m | Show | |
ASA play on UNDER 47.5 Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship which the Chiefs won 17-10. That game had an O/U of 44 with the Under cashing easily. In that game, the Ravens managed 336 total yards and 6.3YPP. They dominated time of possession 37:30 compared to the Chiefs 22:30, but three turnovers to zero doomed the Ravens chances. Kansas City had a tough time moving the ball against this Ravens defense with 319-total yards of offense at 4.5YPP. While both of these offenses get most of the attention, it’s the defenses that really set them apart from the rest of the league. Baltimore was 1st in defensive DVOA a year ago, KC was 7th. The Ravens allowed just 4.6YPP last season, the 2nd lowest number in the league behind the Jets. The Chiefs D gave up only 4.8PPP which ranked 5th. Teams had a very hard time sustaining drives against both teams with the Chiefs allowing the 5th lowest 3rd down conversion percentage at 35.53%, the Ravens ranked 9th at 36.52%. On average it took teams 18.4 yards gained to score 1-points against Baltimore which was best in the NFL. Kansas City wasn’t far behind that at 17.6-Yards Per Point. Another misconception about the Chiefs is that they are an Over team, when in fact they have stayed Under in 15 of their last 20 regular season home games, including 7 straight. KC is Under at home against the AFC in 9 of their last 10. The Ravens have stayed Under in 5 of their last 7 regular season road games and 7 of their last 11. There will be a lot of noise surrounding the two starting QB’s here in Jackson/Mahomes and the offenses but don’t buy into it and side with the defenses and Under. |
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09-02-24 | Boston College +17 v. Florida State | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
#219 ASA PLAY ON Boston College +17 over Florida State, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - This line was +21 last week prior to FSU losing to Georgia Tech so we’ve lost some value but still feel this number is too high. The most concerning thing to us about FSU’s loss last week was their strength on both sides of the ball was supposed to be in the trenches and they were pushed around by the Yellow Jackets. Tech averaged 5.3 YPC in that win with the Seminoles only averaging 3.2 YPC. We don’t think it will get any easier here vs a BC team that ran for 152 yards on FSU last year and brings back nearly everyone. In fact, the Eagles nearly pulled the upset last season losing 31-29 and they dominated the stat sheet outgaining the Noles 457 to 351 in that loss. New HC Bill O’Brien takes over a BC team that returns 81% of their total yards from last year (20th nationally) and 67% of their total tackles from a year ago (39th). That’s from a team that had a winning season and won a bowl game a year ago. QB Castellanos is back and he gave FSU fits last year throwing for 305 yards while rushing for 95. Last year’s FSU team was MUCH better than this year’s team and on the other side we expect the Eagles to be improved this year. Veteran coach O’Brien has a game’s worth of film on the Seminoles while Florida State won’t know what to expect with BC’s new coaching staff. Over the last decade, teams that are playing their first game of the season vs a team that already has a game under their belt have covered 56% of the time. Much more important to have game film on your opponent rather than having the experience of already playing a game. While we do expect FSU to come out on top at home, we don’t see a 2 TD+ win. BC will give them some problems here. Take the points. |
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09-01-24 | LSU v. USC +4.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
#218 ASA PLAY ON USC +4.5 over LSU, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral site in Las Vegas, much closer to USC (4 hour drive). Both teams enter this game having lost a majority of their offensive production from last season. LSU lost Heisman QB Daniels, their top RB and their top 2 WR’s, both 1st round NFL picks. USC lost QB Williams, their top RB, and top 2 WR’s as well. Both offensive lines should be strong this season. Each finished with nearly identical defensive numbers, both outside the top 100 in total defense and outside the top 90 in defensive efficiency. We’ve heard good things about USC’s defense coming out of camp and we expect them to improve dramatically under new DC Lynn who came over from UCLA. Lynn improved the Bruins defense in one season from 87th in total defense in 2022 to 11th in 2023. That same UCLA defense allowed just 19 PPG last year after giving up 31 PPG the previous season. LSU is a bit concerned about their defensive line which normally doesn’t happen in Baton Rouge. The Tigers D-line is a group that features 10 total first-year players within LSU's football program. We look for new USC QB Moss to have a big season. In his one start last year, Moss threw for 372 yards and 6 TD’s in USC’s bowl win over Louisville. HC Lincoln Riley’s offense is always humming no matter who the QB is. He turns QB’s into Heisman contenders. We have these teams rated closer to even and we trust Riley much more than LSU HC Kelly. Riley is 6-1 ATS in his career as a dog of more than 3 points and Kelly’s teams have lost to FSU to open each of the last 2 seasons. We think this one goes to the wire so we’re grabbing the points. |
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08-31-24 | Notre Dame v. Texas A&M UNDER 47.5 | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show | |
#209/210 ASA PLAY ON Under 47.5 Points – Notre Dame vs Texas A&M, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Defenses should dominate here especially in the trenches. Notre Dame and A&M have veteran defensive lines and the weak spot of each opposing offense in on the line. Notre Dame is banged up on the offensive line and will not start a single upper classmen. Two freshmen will start on the left side of the line and the total number of career college starts for this group is less than 10! They are facing a veteran A&M defensive line that most have ranked in the top 5 nationally. New Irish QB Leonard will be running for his life on Saturday and we don’t see any help from Notre Dame’s rushing attack. Last year’s leading rusher Estime (1,300 yards) is gone and his “green” offensive line will be facing a defense that finished in the top 15 in rushing YPG and YPC allowed. On the other side, A&M’s offense will also have problems here vs an Irish defense we have rated in the top 10 entering the season. They also have a top 10 defensive line facing an Aggie offensive front that struggled last season and has 3 new starters this year. A&M starting QB Wiegman was injured early last season and has only started 8 games in his career. Both offenses have new OC’s so each are implementing a new system which can take some time to perfect. The head coaches in this game, Elko for A&M and Freeman for ND, are both defensive minded. From camp reports both defenses are well ahead of the offenses coming into this game and we look for low scoring, grinder here. Take the Under. |