ASA PLAY ON Under 49 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - Both teams want to run the ball in this game which eats clock and shortens the game. We know the Eagles run it more than any other team in the NFL (#1 in carries per game) and they rank dead last in the NFL in pass attempts per game. They are averaging 228 YPG rushing in the playoffs and facing a KC defense that has been on a drastic decline late in the season stopping the run. They’ve allowed an average of 133 YPG rushing over their last 7 games despite playing only 1 team during that stretch that ended the season ranked in the top 10 in rushing. The Chiefs offense ran it 35 times last week vs Buffalo and we expect them to attack the weaker part of Philly’s D which is their run defense (although still very good). The Eagles pass D ranks #1 in the NFL and they allow very few big play with just 7.6% of WR’s targets going for more than 20 yards, by far the best in the NFL. So even when passing, this looks like a dink and dunk game for the Chiefs. The strength of both teams is on the defensive side of the ball with both ranking in the top 10 in YPP & YPG allowed while ranking in the top 5 in PPG allowed. The Eagle defense has allowed just 1 team to reach 24+ points since October 1st and the KC defense has allowed only 5 teams to top 24 points in 19 games this season. Both rank in the bottom half of the NFL in pace (seconds per play) and both are coming off very high scoring games which gives us some value on the Under here. 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls have gone Under and we don’t think this one will be a shootout. Under is the call.

ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - Super Bowl rematch from a few years ago where KC won 38-35 despite getting outgained 417 to 340. We like the script to flip here and the Eagles to win. The value is with the Eagles here in our opinion. KC was just favored by 1 point at home vs a Buffalo team we have power rated slightly below Philadelphia yet we’re getting the same number on a neutral site here. If you simply look at the statistics, you’d be surprised the KC is the favorite here. The Chiefs have been out gained this season on a YPP and YPG basis. They also have a negative margin in terms of YPC (rush) and yards per pass attempt. Philly is plus in all of those categories and by a wide margin. We understand that KC has been winning all season despite that, but we think it ends here. The Chiefs will have trouble slowing down the Eagles running game here. KC was really solid vs the run early in the season but down the stretch they were poor allowing 133 YPG last 7 games and gave up at least 4.6 YPC in 6 of those games & only ONE of those opponents finished the season ranked in the top 10 in rushing. Now they face a Philadelphia rushing attack that finished 2nd in the NFL behind Baltimore and is averaging 228 YPG rushing in their 3 playoff games. The Eagles have an advantage on both sides of the ball in the trenches with one of the top OL & DL in the NFL. On that note of being stronger at the line of scrimmage, the Eagles had a YPC (rush) advantage of +0.8 while KC was -0.3 in that key statistic. They average over 70 more YPG compared to KC on offense and allow 35 fewer YPG defensively. Philly has been a dog 3 times this season and won all 3 games outright and the underdog has now covered 17 of the last 23 Super Bowls. The one true advantage the Chiefs have is Mahomes who is much better than Hurts. We get that but will that be enough to overcome the other advantages the Eagles have? We don’t think so. Philly wins the Super Bowl.

#104 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -120 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - Been there and done that. KC is sitting in their 7th straight AFC Championship game and going for a 3 peat while Buffalo has never won a Super Bowl and continues to fall short in the playoffs. We like the home team with the short spread here. We haven’t been big KC fans this year as they continue to win close games but they do just that, win close games which this is expected to be. Mahomes is 3-0 both SU & ATS vs Allen in the playoffs and we think they win at home again. Both teams were fortunate last week but especially Buffalo. They played host to the Ravens and were dominated getting outgained 7.3 YPPG to 4.6 YPP but benefitted from 3 Baltimore turnovers (0 for Buffalo) and a dropped 2 point conversion by Ravens TE Andrews which would have sent the game to OT. KC was also outplayed in the stats, but didn’t benefit from a single Houston turnover and still found a way to win as they seem to always do. The Chiefs were as healthy as they’ve been all season last week with their full starting defense available and only 1 key offensive player out. They picked up nearly 3 weeks of “rest” leading into last week’s game while Buffalo had to play in both rounds of the playoffs. Mahomes has been fantastic as a favorite of 3 or less or a dog rolling up a 27-9 career ATS record in that spot. With this spread sitting where KC just basically has to win at home, we can’t pass it up.

#102 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -6 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were on the Eagles last week (released them on Friday at -6) and had a bit of rough luck as they won by 6 but missed 2 extra points. We’ll grab them again this week vs division rival Washington. These 2 met twice this season with Philly winning by 8 at home and losing by 3 on the road. Their road loss came with an asterisk as the Eagles led 14-0 in that game in the 1st quarter and lost their QB Hurts to a concussion. They played the rest of the game with back up Kenny Pickett and still led by 13 in the 4th quarter. The Commanders took the 36-33 win with a late TD with just 6 seconds remaining. Philly outgained Washington 5.7 YPP to 5.1 YPP in the 2 games combined and rushed for 228 and 211 yards in those meetings so we look for the Birds to control the trenches again in this one. Washington is a bit fortune to be here. They were outgained by 1.4 YPP in their win over Tampa Bay and outgained again by 1.1 YPP in their win @ Detroit last week. They have a ridiculous +6 turnover margin in those two games which is the main reason they are sitting in this spot. Situationally this is a very difficult spot for the Commanders. They are playing their 4th straight road game while Philadelphia is playing their 5th straight home game. This is just the 8th time since 2000 where a team is playing their 4th straight road game in the playoffs. The previous 7 teams that fell into that situation were 0-7 SU. Washington is also looking to become just the 2nd team in NFL history to win 3 straight games as an underdog in the playoffs. The Eagles have a few players banged up including QB Hurts but it looks like they’ll all be OK to play here. A rookie QB has never played in the Super Bowl and we don’t think it will happen this year with Jayden Daniels. We’ll call Philly to win by at least a TD on Sunday.

#287 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -8 over Notre Dame, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ll go to the well one more time and play against the Irish here. In their quarterfinal game vs UGA the Irish were outplayed across the board but benefitted from 2 key Georgia turnovers (one led to a short ND TD drive and one took points away from the Bulldogs) and a 98 yard kickoff return. Last week vs PSU, the Irish got down 10-0 but were able to rally and score 10 points in the final 5:00 minutes to pull out a 3 point win. What caught our eye in that game was the PSU ran for over 200 yards and limited ND to just 116 yards and the Nittany Lions held a +2.1 yards per carry differential. They definitely won in the trenches which would normally get you a win. That’ will be the case here as well although it might be even more drastic. OSU’s defense ranks #1 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, and passing yards allowed while ranking #2 in yards per carry allowed. In their first 3 playoff games, they held Tennessee to 152 yards rushing (the Vols average 226), they held Oregon to negative 23 yards rushing (OU averages 158), and then shut down Texas to 58 yards rushing (Horns average 159). If ND struggles to run here, we think they are in trouble. They are not a great passing team (92nd in passing YPG) and OSU, as we mentioned, has the #1 pass defense in the country. The Buckeyes have had the tougher road to get here facing Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas while Notre Dame has taken on Indiana, UGA, and Penn State. Ohio State has outscored their 3 opponents by +59 points (closest win was by 14 vs Texas) and outgained those opponents by +470 total yards. ND has outscored their 3 opponents by +26 points and outgained those opponents by just +129 total yards. Ohio State has played the tougher schedule yet they are still better in all of the key stats including YPP margin, YPG margin, YPC margin, and yards per pass attempt margin. The Buckeyes have been simply dominant in their playoff run while Notre Dame, despite winning 3 straight, has not. The favorite has covered 5 straight National Championship games, and we make it 6 on Monday with OSU winning by double digits.

#394 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills +1.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 6:30 PM PM ET - This game opened with the Bills as a favorite and flipped the Baltimore -1.5 with lots of public backing for the Ravens. We’ll now jump on the home dog as the Bills are getting points at home in the playoffs for the first time since 1967. There were 2 road favorites in last weeks Wildcard round, Chargers and Vikings, and both lost outright. Road favorites in the NFL playoffs are now on a 3-12 ATS run. Part of the line move is most likely due to the fact that Baltimore rolled Buffalo at home in the regular season by a final score of 35-10. However, that game was way back in September, Buffalo was really banged up at the time, it was a short week for the Bills after playing on Monday night, and Baltimore was 1-2 on the season so it was a huge home game for them. We don’t take much away from that result. Bills are 9-0 at home this season (54-18 SU at home since McDermott took over as head coach) while Baltimore was 6-3 on the road. Buffalo averaged 34 PPG at home this season and scored at least 30 in 8 of their 9 at home. The Birds allowed more PPG on the road this season than they did at home and scored fewer points on the road compared to their home games. The Bills defense ranks 6th in the NFL in EPA vs the run so they match up well with this Baltimore offense. Lamar Jackson has a losing playoff record and he’s only played 2 playoff games away from home in his career (1-1 record). Buffalo was embarrassed earlier this season and now they have a little extra motivation as they’ve been bet to a home dog despite having the better record and being undefeated at home. You can be sure that’s been discussed. Let’s also remember that the 2 teams with the best record in the NFL this year were KC & Detroit (15-2 and both had byes last week) and Buffalo beat both. We’ll take the Bills to win this one outright.

#392 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 over LA Rams, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Philly didn’t play great last week offensively (5.0 YPP) but they still topped the Packers 22-10 due to their strong defense. The Eagles stop unit has been lights out this season ranking #1 in the NFL in total defense, YPP allowed and passing YPG allowed. Since their bye week (in week 5) the Eagles have been easily the best defense in the NFL. During that stretch Philly has allowed only 4.3 YPP and 1.4 points per drive which is the best in the NFL. They’ve also held teams without a first down on 45% of their drives during that stretch which is by far the best in the league. They’ve held 9 of their last 10 opponents to 20 points or less and we look for the Rams to struggle here offensively. The Eagles might not need to do much offensively to cover this number. QB Hurts had missed 3 weeks leading into last week so he was a bit rusty but with a game under his belt we expect better results on offense. Philly should have plenty of success running the ball which is what the love to do (56% running plays - #1 in the NFL). The Rams defense ranks near the bottom of the league in YPG rushing and YPC and in their meeting in late November, LA allowed over 300 yards rushing on 7.0 YPC vs the Eagles. That was a 37-20 Philadelphia win on the road and now we get them at home. Teams that beat a team in the regular season and then face them in the playoffs are 42-24 SU in those games. The Rams are in a rough spot here with the LA fires affecting their practice time and they were forced to move their game to Arizona last week. Now they much travel across the country and play in cold weather (32 degrees and possible snow) which isn’t ideal for a warm weather, dome type team. The Rams are also on a short week playing on Monday night and now making the long travel. We like the Eagles to win this by at least a TD so we’ll lay it on Sunday.

#388 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -8 over Houston Texans, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - The Chiefs are as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the season for this one. They sat key starters in the final week of the regular season and then had last week off. KC has their entire starting defense available for the first time since week 7 and their entire starting offense is also healthy with the exception of WR Rice. While the did struggle to cover the spread this season despite their 15-2 SU record, the Chiefs played much better down the stretch covering 3 straight winning those games by 14, 8 and 29 points (minus the season finale @ Denver where none of their regulars played). We expect the best version of Kansas City at home on Saturday. Houston is coming off a win as a home dog last week beating the Chargers 32-12 with the Texans benefitting from 4 LAC interceptions including a pick 6. Since 2011, teams that win in the Wildcard round as an underdog are just 2-20 SU in the Divsional round so not a great spot for Houston. Let’s face it, the Texans were pretty darn average all season. They finished 10-7 but played in the weakest division in football (all other teams below .500) and their point differential on the year was +0. They beat 1 team all regular season that finished the year with a winning record and they were 1-5 SU vs playoff teams. It’s going to be cold in KC on Saturday afternoon (windchill around 10 degrees) and dome teams simply haven’t played well in that situation with a 2-7 SU record when temps are below 30 degrees. KC beat this Houston team by 8 a few weeks ago, and now that they are rested and healthy, we’ll call for a double digit win on Saturday.

#398 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams +2.5 over Minnesota Vikings, Monday at 8 PM ET - This game is being played in Phoenix due to the LA wildfires. The line was pick-em before they announced the move from LA to Phoenix. The line has moved to +2.5 which we think is some decent value as we’re getting nearly a FG more than we would have and LA doesn’t have a great home field advantage to being with. In fact, LA has a better road record this year than they do at home. They also average more YPP away from home and allow fewer YPP. The Rams have a huge situational edge here in our opinion. They had a mini bye last week facing Seattle at home and the Rams were able to sit most of their players. Minnesota, on the other hand, had an “all in” game @ Detroit which was a battle for the #1 seed and the Vikings were dominated 31-9. Now they travel again after that physical and emotional battle with the Lions. Detroit has had a rough effect on teams the following week as teams that face the Lions are 4-12 ATS the next week (this season) and 18-31 ATS over the last 3 years in that spot. LA struggled early in the year due to injuries but since getting full strength on offense with WR Kupp and Nacua back they are 8-2 (minus last week’s loss vs Seattle since they sat). They averaged +0.5 YPP more this season with Kupp & Nacua both in the line up. Their defense also drastically improved as the season progressed. After their first 7 games, the Rams allowed 2.44 points per drive and gave up a TD on 27% of opponents drives (both 28th in the NFL). Since then, they have allowed 2.04 points per drive and a TD on 22% of opponents drives (16th and 13th ranking). The point is, this team is much better than their season long record / stats. The Rams were 2-3 SU vs other playoff teams this year but they outgained 4 of those 5 opponents including beating this Minnesota team by 10 points. The Vikes were 3-3 vs other playoff teams but were outgained in 5 of those 6 games so Minnesota was fortunate to win 3 of those games. They were also 9-1 SU in one score games and despite their 14-3 record, they only outgained opponents by 10 YPG on the season. This Vikings team is fortunate to sit where they are to say the least. We like the QB advantage for the Rams as well with veteran Stafford, who has won a Super Bowl, vs Sam Darnold who looked like a deer in headlights last week vs a Detroit defense that was decimated with injuries. That dropped Darnold’s career road record to 12-22 ATS. Let’s grab the dog here.

#381/382 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET - A number of key things in play here which favor the Under in our opinion. First of all, both teams love to run the ball which eats clock. The Eagles run the ball on 56% of their offensive snaps (#1 in the NFL) and Green Bay runs on almost 52% of their snaps (#3 in the NFL). Both defenses are in the top 10 in YPC allowed and in the top 5 in YPP allowed. Since their bye week (in week 5) the Eagles have been easily the best defense in the NFL. During that stretch Philly has allowed only 4.3 YPP and 1.4 points per drive which is the best in the NFL. They’ve also held teams without a first down on 45% of their drives during that stretch which is by far the best in the league. Green Bay’s defense has been really good as well. During that same stretch (since week 5), the Packers have allowed teams to average 1.7 points per drive (#2 in the NFL) and 5.1 YPP (#3 in the NFL). Both teams are very slow paced with Philly ranking 23rd in seconds per play and Green Bay ranking 30th. Offensively, the Packers lost WR Watson last week and he is their big play, deep threat which should limit big plays. QB Love isn’t 100% with a arm injury but will play. His back up Willis injured his hand last week so GB has some issues at QB and we would be at all surprised if they try and run the ball more than usual. Philly QB Hurts hasn’t played in 3 weeks, could be rusty, and they may want to protect him a bit coming off a concussion. Nice situation for a slower paced, lower scoring game and we’ll jump on the Under.

#379/380 ASA PLAY ON Over 47.5 Points – Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in scoring with Buffalo sitting at #2 (31 PPG) and Denver at #10 (25 PPG). The Bills offense has been even more potent at home where they average 34.3 PPG which is the 2nd best home mark in the NFL only behind Detroit. The Bills have scored 30+ points in 7 of their 8 home games. They’ll be facing a Denver defense that has very solid overall numbers (#7 in total defense) but the Broncos allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 5 games vs Bengals, Browns, and Chargers. They also gave up 41 points when they faced Baltimore, a high level offense similar to Buffalo. The Bills defense is definitely the weak spot of this team ranking 22nd in YPP allowed and outside the top 20 in most key pass defense metrics. They will be facing a Denver offense really played well in the 2nd half of the season under rookie QB Nix who played outstanding with almost 3,400 yards passing (12th in the NFL) and 29 TDs (6th in the NFL). The Broncos have scored at least 24 points in 7 straight games and we’d anticipate the get into the 20’s again here. Buffalo has pushed into the 30’s in each of their last 3 Wildcard games and we think they do that again here. The weather doesn’t look bad for this time of year in Buffalo with game time temps around 32 degrees and winds around 10 MPH. Not terrible by any means for 2 teams that are used to playing in colder weather. Over is the call in this one.

#377/378 ASA PLAY ON Over 43.5 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This total opened 46 and has dropped to a current number of 43.5 as of Friday afternoon. We’re now getting some solid value on the Over in this game and we’ll grab it. These 2 rivals met twice this year and the totals in those games were set at 48.5 and 44 so we’re now getting the lowest total of the season in this series. In the first game the final score was 18-16 in favor of Pittsburgh but the Steelers kicked 6 FG’s (0 TD’s) and they pushed inside the Baltimore 15 yard line on 3 of those drives. The Ravens put up 6.1 YPP and missed 2 FG’s. They were inside the Pittsburgh 35 yard line 5 times in that game and came away with only 16 points. That game could have and should have been much higher scoring. In the 2nd meeting, the Ravens again put up really solid YPP numbers (6.7 YPP) and scored 34 points. The Pittsburgh offense put up decent numbers averaging 5.2 YPP but only scored 17 points in the game. They were shut out on downs inside Baltimore territory and fumbled at the Ravens 4 yard line so again, the opportunity for more points was there and they still reached 51 total points. Baltimore is 3rd in the NFL averaging 30.5 PPG and at home that jumps to 31.5 PPG. Pittsburgh has been a higher scoring team away from home at 23.1 PPG compared to at home where they average 21.5 PPG. The Steelers also average 5.1 YPP on the road which is higher than their home numbers. The Ravens put up an impressive 6.7 YPP at home which is by far the best mark in the NFL. Baltimore has scored at least 30 points in 6 of their 8 home games (including 34 vs Pittsburgh) and if they get to that number, we would need much for Pittsburgh for this to go over. The Steelers have struggled offensively over the last few games but we anticipate they throw caution to the wind here and open up the offense. They know they need to score some points to have a chance in this one because shutting down Baltimore’s offense is a tall task. The weather looks decent with temps in the mid 30’s at game time and 10 MPH winds (no precipitation). This total is too low and we like the Over.

#285 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -5.5 over Texas, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - This line is higher than it would have been in favor of OSU compared to what it would have been a few weeks ago but it’s warranted in our opinion. The Buckeyes just topped Tennessee & Oregon by a combined score of 83-38 which is arguably 2 of the most impressive wins by any college team this season. They simply dominated 2 very good opponents. Not only on the scoreboard but in the stats as well. They outgained those 2 opponents by a combined 973 to 532 total yards. The Buckeyes controlled the line of scrimmage in each game as well averaging nearly 5.2 YPC on the ground while allowing just 1.9 YPC. To put that defensive effort into perspective, both the Vols and Ducks came into the game averaging 4.9 YPC so OSU held them a full 3.0 YPC below their average. Impressive to say the least. Texas topped Clemson by 2 TD’s and then went to OT vs ASU before winning 39-31. However, unlike the Buckeyes who dominated, the Horns were outgained in the 2 games combined and lost the line of scrimmage averaging just 3.1 YPC while allowing 4.0 YPC. The vaunted Texas defense gave up 922 total yards in those 2 games. We can argue that OSU dominated 2 better teams than Texas played as both Tennessee and Oregon would be favored vs either of the Longhorn opponents (ASU & Clemson). The Ohio State defense has been lock down allowing less than 300 total yards vs each of their first 2 opponents. We think Texas will struggle on offense in this game while the OSU offense is facing a Longhorn defense that has given up nearly 1,000 yards in their 2 games. OSU by at least a TD here.

#284 ASA PLAY ON Penn State +2.5 over Notre Dame, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on Georgia over Notre Dame last week and felt we were on the right side of that game and still do. Georgia outgained the Irish 300 to 244 and 4.9 YPP to 4.0 YPP. The Irish had zero passing game in that win (90 yards passing) and benefitted from a 98 yard kickoff return and 2 UGA turnovers. Not only did the Bulldogs have 2 turnovers (0 for Notre Dame) but they were very influential giveaways. One was inside the ND 15 yard line as UGA was driving for a TD or FG and the other was inside their own 15 very late in the first half which led to ND’s only offensive TD of the game on a 13 yard drive. Spanning the 1st and early 2nd half, the Irish scored 17 of their 23 points in a 54 second span with a FG, quick turnover by UGA into a short TD, and a kickoff return. This team did very little offensively and now they face a PSU defense that is every bit as good as Georgia’s defense. The Irish rely very heavily on the run but they are facing a PSU defense that is in the top 10 in both rushing YPG and YPC allowed. The Nittany Lions have allowed 166 yards in 2 playoff games (vs SMU and Boise) on just 2.1 YPC. Last week vs what most consider to be the best RB in college FB, they held Boise’s Ashton Jeanty to 3.5 YPC. We think Notre Dame struggles again offensively, especially with their #1 offensive threat, RB Love, banged up (only 6 carries for 19 yards last week). The Irish defense played well last week vs the run, back up UGA QB Stockton was successful with 234 yards passing. The Irish sold out against the run last week and may again this week and we trust PSU QB Allar to have a big game as well. While the defenses in this game are both high level, PSU’s offense is much more balanced with 203 YPG rushing and 234 YPG passing giving them a better chance to be successful on offense We have these teams rated almost dead even so not sure when ND is almost a 3 point favorite on this neutral field in Miami. The Irish have covered 10 in a row so that plays a role in this number. We’ll take the points with PSU.

#363 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings +3 over Detroit Lions, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - In simple terms, the Vikings and Lions rate similarly in terms of offense, but the defense of Minnesota is much better than the Lions D. Detroit averages 6.2YPP on the season, Minnesota averages 5.7YPP. The Lions are averaging 410 total YPG, the Vikings put up 353YPG. Detroit ranks 7th in rushing yards per game and 2nd in passing yards per game. Minnesota is 15th in rushing YPG, 3d in passing. You get the idea. The defenses do not compare as the injuries to Detroit have decimated this stop-unit. The Vikes give up the 8th fewest Yards Per Play at 5.2 and allow just 18.8ppg, 4th lowest average in the league. The Lions defense is giving up 5.8YPP (4th most) and have been especially bad in recent weeks allowing 7.6YPP in their last three games and 7.9YPP last week to San Francisco. What’s alarming is the fact that the Niners had scored 17 or less points in 5 of their previous six games, then put up 34 against this Lions defense. In that stretch of game for San Francisco the only other time they put up more than 17-points was against the Bears. Minnesota is playing with revenge as they lost at home 29-31 to a full-strength Lions team back in October. The Lions kicked a last second FG to win that game as a 1-point dog. Grab the points with Minnesota here.

#345 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs +11 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Of course we know KC will sit some guys here but this line has moved WAY too much in our opinion based on that.  This number is double digits off from what it would be had KC not clinched and was playing their starters.  They will still play some starters as they can’t site everyone.  Head coach Andy Reid has been in this situation a number of times in the final week of the season and the Chiefs have still played very well while sitting guys in this spots.  In fact, Reid sat his starting QB in 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2023 in the final week of the season and KC won 2 of those games outright and another went to OT.  And while QB Mahomes won’t play here, we’re not looking at some inexperienced back up playing his first snaps.  KC will start veteran Carson Wentz at QB (22,000 career passing yards and 153 TD’s) and he’s playing for a potential contract whether it be in KC or somewhere else so we expect a solid game from him.  Wentz obviously has much more experience than Denver QB rookie Bo Nix and a lot less pressure on him in this game.  A lot falls on Nix shoulders (and his teammates) here as Denver needs a win to make the playoffs.  Denver had must win games the last 2 weeks to potentially make the playoffs and couldn’t get it done losing to the Chargers & Bengals.  Now another must win here certainly doesn’t mean they will win this game, especially by margin.  Too many points here we grab KC plus double digits.

#354 ASA PLAY ON Dallas Cowboys +6.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This young Washington team clinched their first playoff berth since 2020 last week beating Atlanta in OT. While they are still jockeying for seeding position, we doubt that is a huge motivating factor for a team that wasn’t supposed to make the post season. Sure they are saying the right things about coming to Dallas to win, but they may just be happy to be in the postseason. The Cowboys have had a poor season by their standards but they have not quit. They’ve won 4 of their last 6 games including topping this Washington team on the road a little over a month ago. They haven’t been great at home this year, however in their last game here the beat a red hot Tampa Bay team that is playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. They are also coming off an embarrassing 41-7 loss @ Philly last week (Eagles were playing for the NFC East title) and Dallas committed 4 turnovers in that game which led directly to 24 points for Philly (including a pick 6). QB Rush had been playing well prior to last week and we expect Dallas as a whole to give a solid effort after that loss, especially vs a hated division rival Washington. No way they lay down in this game. The Commanders have won 4 straight but let’s take a closer look at that run. They beat a bad 3-13 Tennessee team who is 2-14 ATS this season, then barely beat a bad Saints team on the road by 1 point and were outgained on a YPP basis, beat Philly by 3 after the Eagles got up 14-0 prior to losing starting QB Hurts for the game, and last week they were outgained again on YPP basis and beat Atlanta in OT. Not so sure this Commanders team is playing great ball right now despite their 4-0 run. This is also a rare situation where Washington is actually favored @ Dallas and the past history has not gone well for them. Dallas has been home dog to Washington just 8 times since 1990 and the Cowboys have covered all of those games while going 7-1 SU. We think this will be a battle on Sunday and we’ll take nearly a full TD with the home team.

#351/351 ASA PLAY ON OVER 48 Points - Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Falcons offense has produced points the last two weeks with rookie QB Penix under center. Atlanta is averaging 29ppg in his starts, 5.4 Yards Per Play and over 330 total yards per game. Penix and the Falcons offense should have success against a Panthers defense that can’t stop the run and doesn’t pressure opposing QB’s. Carolina is 32nd or last in the NFL in total yards allowed per game and 29th in Yards Per Play allowed. They give up 5.1 yards per rush and 177 rushing yards per game. Atlanta is 12th in YPP offense averaging 5.9 on the season with the running game producing 125 rushing yards per game, 12th most in the NFL. Atlanta is going to put up points against this Panthers defense that allows the most points per game at 31ppg. To cash this Over we are going to need Carolina to score too, and we think they will. The Panthers offense has improved as the season progressed with QB Young looking much better in recent starts. Carolina is averaging 5.1YPP over their last three games and has scored 20+ points in 5 of their last eight games. The Falcons defense is giving up 23.7ppg on the season, 20th most in the league. With both teams ranking in the top 10 in pace of play we expect plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities for each team. In the most recent meeting between these two teams, they combined for 58 total points which is what we project for today.

#356 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Bengals “have to” win this game to stay alive for the playoff race + have both Denver and Miami lose. Because of that perception, Cincinnati is favored in this game by the same number (or very close) they were favored at home just a few weeks ago. In that game, which was also a huge game for the Bengals as they were trying to catch up in the playoff race, the Steelers won 44-38. Pitt outgained Cincy 520 to 375 in that win and they had a +1.3 YPP margin. The thought in this game by many will be that once Baltimore beats Cleveland earlier in the day, then the Steelers have nothing to play for because the Ravens will have clinched the AFC North title. Wrong. Pittsburgh will have a lot to play for no matter what the Ravens do earlier in the day. As of now, the Steelers are sitting in the 5th spot in the AFC playoffs which would mean they face Houston in the opening round. Lose here and an LA Chargers win on Sunday moves Pitt down and they have to travel to Baltimore for the wildcard. They surely would rather face the Texans. On top of that, Pitt has lost 3 straight games (vs 3 of the best teams in the NFL - @ Philly, @ /Baltimore, and vs KC) and no way head coach Tomlin wants them to hit the playoffs on a 4 game losing streak. He’ll play to win. Situationally it’s a great spot for the Steelers having 3 extra days off having played on Xmas Day. The weather is not going to be great with 10+ MPH winds and a windchill close to single digits. That should favor the team with the better running game which is Pittsburgh. They rank 10th in the NFL in YPG on the ground and they are facing a Cincy D that ranks 21st in rush defense. The Bengals, on the other hand, rank 29th in YPG rushing and might be without starting RB Brown for this one, facing a Pitt defense that ranks 7th at stopping the run. Pitt has been a home dog vs the Bengals TWO times since 1990 (1-1 ATS) and dating back to the start of the 2018 season the Steelers are 11-4-2 ATS as a home dog and we like them to get the outright win here.

#281 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo -3 over Liberty, Saturday at 11 AM ET – BAHAMAS BOWL - The level of motivation for this game looks to be drastically different. Buffalo was expected to be a 5 win type team (pre-season win total) and they exceeded expectations with a very solid 8-4 record. They did not make a bowl game last season and they’ve only played in 6 bowl games in school history so they are thrilled to be playing on Saturday in the Bahamas Bowl. Liberty had much higher expectations this season. They were supposed to win double digit games and many thought they would be a team that could compete for the Group of 5 spot in the CFP. That didn’t happen and they were really never close to meeting expectations this season. The Flames finished 8-3 despite playing the easiest strength of schedule in college football. They were favored in every game yet lost 3 games outright and won 2 games in OT when they were tabbed as double digit chalk. They finished the season with an ATS record of just 3-8. Liberty will be without starting QB Salter who started every game the last 2 seasons and is headed to Oregon State in the portal. They will also be without 3 starting offensive linemen who are headed elsewhere. Buffalo won only 3 games last season and are sitting in a bowl game this season. Teams in that situation (0 to 3 wins last year and now in a bowl game) are 39-13-2 ATS (75%) as long as their opponent isn’t in the same situation which Liberty is not (they won 13 games last season thus a very disappointing year in 2024 for the Flames). Let’s take Buffalo here.

#279 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota -9 over Virginia Tech, Friday at 7:30 PM ET – MAYO BOWL @ Charlotte, NC - Minnesota is always motivated come bowl season under head coach PJ Fleck. He seems to always have them ready this time of year winning 5 straight bowl games. They’ve won those games by an average of more than 10 PPG. The Gophs have very few opt outs / transfer portal players that won’t play here. They seem to be all in here as they usually are during bowl season. It looks like the direct opposite situation on the other sideline. Va Tech is missing a ton of key players and it’s high possible 13 to 14 starters won’t play in this game. Their offensive line looks decimated heading into this game, top RB Tuten (1,100 yards rushing) will be out, and it looks like they will be down to their 3rd string QB in this game. Starting QB Drones is injured, back up Schlee is banged up, so it could be Pop Watson (47 career pass attempts) under center. On defense the top 6 players in snaps played this season for Tech will be out of this game. So while Minnesota is focused fully on this game, we’re not so sure VT will be. Losing all of those key players from a team that wasn’t all that good to begin with (6-6 record & 3-6 vs bowl teams) might be just too tough to overcome. We just don’t see this shorthanded VT team being able to move the ball vs a Minnesota defense that ranked in the top 10 nationally in total defense and top 21 in YPP allowed, rush defense, and pass defense. The ACC has shown to be an overrated conference this bowl season with a 2-9 SU record while the Big 10 is 8-5 thus far. When Big 10 faces the ACC in bowl games they are on a 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS run. Minnesota by double digits.

#274 ASA PLAY ON Georgia +100 over Notre Dame, THURSDAY at 4 PM ET – SUGAR BOWL @ New Orleans - We think the Irish are overvalued right now after winning 9 straight games ATS. They’ve been on quite a roll but let’s not forget their schedule was an easy one (59th SOS) while UGA’s was one of the toughest in college football (3rd SOS). Georgia played and beat 4 CFP teams during the regular season including topping Texas twice (along with Tennessee & Clemson). Notre Dame faced their first playoff team in round 1 taking down Indiana by 10 at home. While it was a solid 27-17 win, we’re not so sure how good it really was. First of all it was a home game and on top of that IU faced one of the easiest schedules of any Power 4 team and the one good team they faced during the regular season, OSU rolled them 38-15. The Irish offense, especially their running game, has been really good this season but this will be the most talented defense they’ve faced. UGA’s overall defensive numbers might not be as good as a few of ND’s opponents this season (Indiana & Army) but when strength of schedule is taken into consideration, they are the best unit ND has seen. On offense UGA will be without starting QB Beck and we’re not sure that’s a terrible thing (sort of kidding here). He did not have a great year with his lowest completion percentage and he threw more interceptions this season than he did in his first 3 years combined. Back up Stockton came in a played well in their SEC Championship win over Texas and brings a running threat to the position. Head coach Kirby Smart has had a full month to get a game plan ready with Stockton under center. We like this situation as the ND defense may not know what to expect. On top of that, the Irish defensive line is banged up right now and they will be without their All American DT Mills. UGA and Smart knows what it takes to win in this spot as they’ve been here many times. Smart has won 7 straight post-season games and he is 57-1 SU the last 58 games vs everyone not named Alabama. We think UGA gets this win and moves on.

#271/272 ASA PLAY ON Over 55.5 Points – Ohio State vs Oregon, Wednesday at 5 PM ET – ROSE BOWL @ Pasadena, CA - When these 2 met in September, the total was set at 54.5 and they combined for 63 points (32-31 Oregon). Today’s total is set a bit higher and we think they get into the 60’s again. In the first meeting the 2 combined for almost 1,000 yards and averaged over 7.0 YPP. There could have been more than 63 scored in that game as Oregon missed a FG, got shut out on downs inside the OSU 5 yard line, and OSU ended the game on the Oregon 26 yard line as time expired. The Ducks offenses ranks in the top 15 nationally in YPG, YPP, and scoring at 36 PPG. It was the one offense that Ohio State struggled big time with this season. In their last 11 games, the Ducks scored at least 30 points 10 times including vs OSU and Penn State’s vaunted stop unit. In that game (the Big 10 Championship Game) Oregon scored 45 points 470 yards. Their defense, however, allowed 37 points and Penn State’s offense had over 500 yards. The Oregon defense had solid overall numbers (20th in YPP allowed) but vs the 3 CFP offenses they faced (OSU, PSU, and Boise State), they allowed an average of 34 PPG. The Buckeyes scored 42 points on nearly 500 yards last week vs a high level Tennessee defense that ranked in the top 10 nationally. The Bucks scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 13 games this season. We think Oregon will struggle to slow the Buckeyes down and same with the OSU defense having trouble with OU’s offense. We see both getting into the 30’s again and this goes Over the Total.

#268 ASA PLAY ON Boise State +11 over Penn State, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET – FIESTA BOWL @ Phoenix - Our power ratings have PSU favored just over a TD here so getting double digits is some solid value. Penn State rolled in their home game vs SMU but that game turned on it’s head early with the Nittany Lions scored on 2 pick 6’s early in the game to take a 14-0 lead. At that point in the game, PSU had 74 total yards and already led 14-0 due to the defensive TD’s. That changed the whole complexion of the game for SMU as they were fighting from 2 scores down the rest of the way. On top of that, we had a warm weather team in SMU who’s average temp in their games played this season (both home and away) was 72 degrees playing in brutal weather (windchill was in the teens). Now we get PSU away from home where they were great this season. They struggled away from Happy Valley barely getting by at Minnesota (won by 1), at Wisconsin (trailed at half), and needed OT to beat what turned out to be a pretty average USC team. If we subtract their game @ Purdue (one of the worst teams in the country), Penn State played 5 games away from Happy Valley this year and won by an average of 6 PPG. Much has been made of Boise’s lower strength of schedule but let’s not forget this team nearly beat Oregon (CFP #1 seed) on the road this season. They lost 37-34 but outgained the Ducks (remember this game was in Autzen Stadium) and OU scored on a kickoff return AND an 85-yard fumble return and still barely won. PSU also faced Oregon in the Big 10 Championship game and lost that game by 8 points. Boise has been lights out as an underdog with a 33-18 ATS record (65%) since 1999 and they’ll have the best offensive player on the field on Tuesday night with RB Jeanty. If they can have some success on the ground, which we think they will, the Broncos should stay in this the entire way. Too many points.

#259 ASA PLAY ON Alabama -14.5 over Michigan, Tuesday at 12 PM ET – RELIAQUEST BOWL in Tampa, FL - We think Bama will be much more motivated for this game after being left out of the CFP. The Tide have something to prove and they should have a big coaching edge with DeBoer, who coached in the National Championship Game last year with Washington, having extra time vs Michigan 1st year head coach Moore. Maybe a little extra incentive for DeBoer here as well after losing to Michigan in last year’s National Title game. Bama lost a few WR’s for this game but for the most part they are pretty much in tact with most of their starters ready to go. Michigan has lost 8 or 9 of their best players for this game either to the portal or the NFL Draft. In fact, 4 potential first round draft picks for the Wolverines will not play here including DL Graham and Grant and top DB Johnson. Not only that, offensively they will be missing both of their RB’s Mullings and Edwards who combined for 1,500 yards rushing this season and their leading receiver TE Loveland who had over 500 yards receiving (no other Michigan player had more than 300 yards receiving this season). Michigan’s “want to” has to come into question here as well after winning the National Championship last year and now play in the Reliaquest Bowl. They already won their most important game @ OSU to end the season so a flat performance here might be in order. Michigan wasn’t a very good team this season (YPP margin of +0.0 is pretty average) and now we can argue that 8 or 9 of their top 10 players on the team aren’t even playing in this game. The Crimson Tide weren’t as dominant as they have been in previous years, but they are still a very good team with a +1.6 YPP margin this year vs a top 15 schedule. They also have a huge edge at QB with Milroe over Michigan’s Davis Warren (former walk on). Let’s roll with Bama to win by more than 2 TD’s.

#431/432 ASA PLAY ON Under 50.5 Points – Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The San Francisco offense has fallen off a cliff over the last month and a half. They have scored more than 17 points just once in their last 6 games. We don’t see those offensive struggles changing here vs a Detroit defense that is getting healthy. The Lions were decimated with defensive injuries the last month or so but many of those players are now back. Prior to their injury problems, Detroit had allowed more than 23 points only twice in their first 12 games. Then they were lit up by 2 of the best offensive teams in the NFL (Green Bay & Buffalo) which was right in the midst of their injury issues. They are #1 in the NFL allowing opponents just a 31% conversion rate and they are #4 in yards per point defense (17 yards per point). No reason to think the SF offense, which has averaged just 16 PPG since mid November, won’t continue to have problems. The strength of this 49er team is definitely their defense ranking in the top 5 in the NFL in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and passing YPG allowed. They’ve allowed just 4.7 YPP over their last 3 games which is 3rd best in the NFL during that span and only 5 of their 15 opponents have topped 24 points. The Niners do not want to get into a shootout here so we expect them to take their sweet time on offense to keep Detroit’s offense off the field. They are already the slowest paced team in the NFL running just 1 play every 31 seconds. Detroit is in the bottom half of the NFL in seconds per play as well so possessions could be limited here. We think this one stays in the 40’s so we’ll grab the Under on Monday night.

#257 ASA PLAY ON Iowa +3 over Missouri, Monday at 2:30 PM ET – MUSIC CITY BOWL @ Nashville, TN - Iowa finished 8-4 on the season despite having injury concerns at QB on and off all season. Starting QB McNamara started the first 7 games of the season and then was injured. He could have come back but we were hearing that head coach Ferentz decided to go with Sullivan (former Northwestern starting QB) for the rest of the season. He played in 3 games and then he was injured. Iowa went with 3rd stringer Strasser down the stretch but Sullivan is now back and healthy and will start here. In the 2 games he started and played the entire game, Iowa won both and outscored Wisconsin & NW by a combined score of 82-24. Sullivan is a veteran who brings a dual threat to the position. Most of Iowa’s starters are in for this game, however they will be missing RB Johnson which is a big loss. However, Mizzou will be without their top offensive weapon WR Burden so those 2 offset each other. The Hawkeyes do have some quality back up RB’s that have done well this season and we expect them to win in the trenches here. Missouri’s defensive strength is vs the pass, however they have struggled at times stopping the run ranking 60th in YPC allowed. Iowa is in the top 25 in both rush offense and defense. These 2 played almost identical strength of schedules and Iowa had the better YPP margin (+0.6 to +0.1) and YPC rushing margin (+1.4 to +0.2). We know Iowa is excited to be here and will bring their “A” game after getting rolled 35-0 in last year’s bowl game. Missouri we’re not so sure. They were a top 10 team prior to the season and may not be overly thrilled to be in the Music City Bowl. We’ll take the dog here.

#413 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +3.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - We really like this spot for the Falcons. They catch Washington off a huge rivalry win over Philadelphia which pushed the Commanders chances of making the playoffs to 94%. The Commanders have another division rival on deck vs Dallas. In their win over Philly last week, the Eagles lost starting QB Hurts early in the game which obviously made a huge difference. The game still came down to a TD in the final seconds for Washington to win by 3. They are on a 3 game winning streak, however their wins came vs Tennessee, @ New Orleans by 1 points, and vs Philly with their QB out. This is a massive game for Atlanta. A loss here drops them below a 40% chance to make the playoffs while a win pushes them close to 90%. The Falcons control their own destiny, win here and next week vs Carolina and they are in. Rookie QB Penix will be making his 2nd start for Atlanta and he was solid in last week’s 34-7 win over the Giants. We think Penix gives the Birds the best chance to win (over an injured and inefficient Cousins) and getting a full game under his belt is big. These 2 have played pretty much the same strength of schedules and their YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempt margins are almost identical. We’re not sure Washington should be more than a FG favorite here so we’ll take the extra value on the Falcons in the better situation.

#424 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These 2 teams just met a few weeks ago and the Bucs were -6.5 on the road. Now laying only -8 at home which gives us some solid value. In the first meeting, TB won in OT but they outgained Carolina by nearly 100 yards and by +0.4 YPP. The 2 TB turnovers resulted directly in 6 points for Carolina. While the Panthers are obviously out of playoff contention, this is a gigantic game for Tampa. A loss drops them to less than 15% chance to make the post-season. The Panthers are off a huge home OT win over Arizona while Tampa is off a road loss @ Dallas which we think sets this up nicely for the Bucs. While Carolina has been playing better, they still haven’t found a way to pick up wins losing 4 of their last 5. They’ve also been playing at home for the most part with 4 of their last 5 being played in Charlotte. On the road this year, they are just 1-5 with their only win coming way back in September @ Las Vegas and 4 of their 5 losses away from home have come by at least 14 points. The Panthers were double digit dogs in each of their last 3 road games vs Washington, Philly, and Denver and they are getting too much respect here with TB laying only 8 points. The Cats have been outgained by an average of almost 100 YPG on the road and their YPP margin away from home is -1.1. Their average PPG margin on the road in -17 PPG. TB is the much better team (5th in YPP margin / Carolina 28th in YPP margin) and it’s a bigger game for the Bucs. We’ll call a double digit win for Tampa.

ASA NFL play on OVER 50 Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals, 4:30 PM ET - Buffalo Bills QB Allen is the odds-on favorite to win MVP this season, but Bengals QB Joe Burrow has had an insane stretch of games to close the gap with Allen and Lamar Jackson. Burrow has thrown 3 or more TD passes in seven straight games and propelled the Bengals offense to an average of 32.5ppg in that seven-game stretch. The Bengals and their opponent have totaled 51 or more points in five of those games. Even after a slow start to the season the Bengals are 10th in Total Yards Per Game, 7th in Yards Per Play at 6.1, 1st in Passing YPG at 267 and 6th in scoring at 28.2ppg. Cincinnati has to put up points because their defense can’t stop anyone. The Bengals are 28th in Total Yards Per Game allowed at 360, 20th in Yards Per Play allowed, 21st against the run and 26th versus the pass. They also allow 26.2PPG, 28th most in the NFL. Five of Cincinnati’s last six home games have finished with 54+ points. Denver is going to score in this game too. The Browns have scored 27 or more points in five straight games and rank 10th in scoring at 24.2ppg. The Broncos have the 10th best points per play average in the league despite being a bottom 10 team in terms of Yards Per Play. Denver is 5-3 to the Over in road games this year with 3 of the last four cashing. The Bengals game plan is simple, outscore your opponent. Denver will be forced to keep up and should have success against this Bengals D.

#247/248 ASA PLAY ON Over 57 Points – Iowa State vs Miami FL, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – POP TARTS BOWL in Orlando, FL - Most of the key offensive players on both sides here are playing in this game. Miami QB Ward has stated he’s playing and he will have his full complement of weapons with the possible exception of WR Restrepo who may or may not play. Iowa State’s offense looks to be in the same situation with most if not all of the key contributors playing. That should bode well for scoring in this game as both offenses know how to put points on the board. The Canes lead the nation in total offense, YPP offense, and scoring putting up just over 44 PPG. Iowa State is no slouch averaging just over 30 PPG on the season. Miami’s overall defensive numbers are solid, however 6 of their 8 ACC opponents scored at least 28 points. The only 2 teams in conference play that struggled offensively vs the Canes were Florida State, who ranks 132nd in total offense, and Wake Forest, who ranks 86th in total offense. We expect ISU’s offense to come out with some passion after playing one of the worst games of the season in the Big 12 Championship losing 45-19 vs Arizona State. Prior to scoring just 19 points in that game, the Cyclones had scored at least 28 points in 7 of their previous 8 games. The ISU defense wasn’t great this year ranking 68th in YPP allowed and 102nd at stopping the run. They allowed at least 21 points in 6 of their 9 Big 12 games and this will be the best offense they’ve seen this year as Miami reached at least 40 points 8 times this season. These teams have combined to play 25 games with 16 going Over the total and this smells like a keep up type game offensively. Weather looks good in Orlando and we like the Over here.

#243 ASA PLAY ON Boston College +4 over Nebraska, Saturday at 12 PM ET – PINSTRIPE BOWL @ Yankee Stadium - BC made a QB change near the latter part of the season with previous starter Castellanos entering the portal, head coach Bill O’Brien went with Grayson James. Since he took over, the Eagles are 3-1 with their only loss coming 38-28 vs an SMU team that made the College Football Playoff and in that game the yardage was about dead even. The 3 wins BC had with James under center were all vs bowl teams (Syracuse, Pitt, and UNC) and they controlled the trenches in those games rushing for an average of 223 YPG while allowing just 32 YPG holding each of those opponents to less than 40 yards rushing. Even in their loss down the stretch vs a very good SMU team, the Eagles outrushed the Mustangs by 40 yards. They were 6-2 ATS this season vs the 8 bowl teams they faced and their point differential was about dead even. Nebraska, on the other hand, squeaked into their first bowl game since 2015 despite losing 5 of their final 6 games. The Huskers beat ONE conference team that made it to a bowl game and that was a tight 14-7 home win over Rutgers and the yardage was dead even in that game. The Huskers were outscored by an average of -6 PPG in the 7 bowl teams they faced and in what is anticipated to be a close game here, Nebraska was just 1-5 SU in games decided by a single score. This game is in NYC which gives BC an advantage as well traveling only 200 miles compared to 1,300 miles for Nebraska. We like BC to keep this close and have a shot to win outright. Take the points.

#237 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse -17 over Wash State, Friday at 8 PM ET – HOLIDAY BOWL in San Diego - This line has moved drastically since the open and for good reason. We still think it’s not enough and expect the Orange to win this one by 20+ points. Syracuse has very few opt outs and head coach Brown said most if not all of his starters will play. Meanwhile, Washington State barely has enough players remaining on the team to run a decent practice. The Cougars have at least 13 starters out here and upwards of 30 in the transfer portal. The head coach Dickert has left for the head job at Wake Forest, both the offensive and defensive coordinators are gone along with a number of other assistant coaches. The catalyst for their offense QB Mateer is off to Oklahoma and will not play here. On top of that, this Washington State team seem distracted and disinterested down the stretch when rumors of their QB and head coach getting better opportunities reared their head. They lost their last 3 games of the regular season vs New Mexico, Oregon State, and Wyoming, all teams with losing records that didn’t qualify for bowl games. On the other hand, Syracuse was surging winning 7 of their final 9 games sporting the #1 passing offense in the country (363 YPG passing). They are facing a WSU defense that was terrible overall (116th in total defense) and couldn’t stop the pass (118th in pass defense). Now that defense, that was bad to begin with, will be without their 2 starting CB’s and a starting safety. Cuse has massive motivation here after losing their bowl game last year 45-0 and head coach Brown has made sure his team remembers that. The Orange are all in to win this game and the Cougars simply want this season to end. Lay it.

#230 ASA PLAY ON Bowling Green -8 over Arkansas State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - BG seems to be taking this game very seriously as they have 3 key players in the portal, 2 that have committed to Power 4 schools, but all plan on playing to go out with one final win for the Falcons. Starting RB Stewart (committed to Va Tech), starting LT Wollschlaeger (committed to Kentucky), and starting LB Sipp (committed to Kansas), all made the trip and are slated to start on Thursday. That would give the Falcons their entire starting line up ready to go in this game as the look to get to 8 wins (one more than last season) and make up for their regular season finale loss to Miami OH which kept them out of the MAC Championship game. Despite the same records (both 7-5) BG was the much better team this season. They have a huge advantage in YPP margin sitting at +0.4 compared to Arkansas State who had a terrible -1.6 YPP margin. The edge defensively in this game for the Falcons is as big as any in the bowl games this season. BG ranks 32nd nationally in total defense (allowing 331 YPG) and 22nd in scoring defense (allowing 20 PPG). Arkansas State finished 129th in total defense (allowing 462 YPG), 112th in scoring defense (allowing 32 PPG), and 132nd in rush defense (allowing 227 YPG rushing). The Red Wolves played 11 games vs FBS opponents and they were outgained in 8 of those games. The only 3 teams they outgained this season were Tulsa, USM, and Troy who finished with a combined record of 8-28! Bowling Green finished 6-2 in the MAC with their losses coming vs NIU and Miami OH, both bowl teams. In the non-conference season they gave 2 high level Power 4 teams all they could handle losing by 7 @ Penn State and losing by 6 @ Texas A&M. If BG comes ready to play, as is seems they will, they are the FAR better team in this match up. Lay it.

#405 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks -4 over Chicago Bears, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bears are in a freefall losing 9 straight games. They look like they are simply playing out the stretch and if by some chance they have one more “all in” game we’re guessing it will be next week vs arch rival Green Bay and not this one. Chicago had a decent stretch in late November where they took their 3 division rivals Detroit, Minnesota, and Green Bay all to the wire but lost all 3. After that run, they fired head coach Eberflus and it’s been all downhill since losing their last 3 games by margins of 25, 18, and 17 points. The offense put up only 14 PPG and 276 YPG during that 3 game stretch. The Chicago defense, that looked solid early in the year, looks like they’ve run out of gas as well, allowing at least 30 points in 4 of their last 5 games. We’re not sure the Bears can keep up here. Seattle is coming off a tight 27-24 loss vs Minnesota last week in a game they outgained the Vikings 6.0 YPP to 4.8 YPP, outrushed them 3.9 YPC to 3.4 YPC and also had an edge in yards per pass attempt (6.7 to 5.7). Seattle is still alive in the playoff race but they have to win here and hope the Rams lose @ New England on Saturday. They’ve been much better on the road this year with a 5-1 SU record (3-6 SU at home) and their only road loss came @ Detroit. The Seahawks have a +5 PPG point differential on the road and +0.5 YPP margin. Chicago has the worst YPP margin in the NFL (-1.3), they have an interim coach that will be gone at the end of the year, and they look like they are just playing out the season. We’ll take Seattle.

#402 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers +3 -120 over Kansas City Chiefs, Wednesday at 1 PM ET - We were on Houston last week vs KC and picked up a loss with KC winning 27-19 as a 3.5 point home favorite. The yardage was dead even in that game (5.8 YPP to 5.8 YPP) but Houston had 2 turnovers (0 for KC) which was the difference. The turning point in that game happened in the 3rd quarter when Houston scored to seemingly tie the game at 17-16 (they missed the XP) but the Texans lost top WR Dell on a gruesome injury on that TD. Houston QB Stroud admitted that he wasn’t very focused on the game moving forward after the injury which was evident as the Texans had only 48 total yards from that point on (11:00 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter). Now the Chiefs are in a tough spot traveling on a very short week to Pittsburgh to face a motivated Steelers team that is coming off 2 losses to Philadelphia and Baltimore. Both teams are on an extremely tough stretch of 3 games in 11 days which heavily favors the home team on our opinion. Pitt was on the road in those recent 2 losses with spreads of +5.5 @ Philly and +6.5 or +7 @ Baltimore. Those numbers would tell us that if Pitt had hosted those games they would have been right around a pick-em vs the Eagles and +1 or +1.5 vs the Ravens. Now they are getting a full FG vs KC who despite their record, we (and others in the industry) have rated lower than both of those teams. NFL DVOA has Baltimore rated #1 in the NFL, Philly #5 and KC #7 as another reference point. Just 2 weeks ago the Chiefs were favored by -4.5 @ Cleveland and now laying nearly that number @ Pittsburgh? Either way, too many points here. Especially with Pittsburgh getting healthy. Top WR Pickens missed the last 2 games and has a solid chance to play here along with some key defensive players that have been banged up. KC continues to have the best record in the NFL despite being outgained on the season (-0.1 YPP). Their point differential is just 9th in the NFL and they are averaging just 5.0 YPP and 328 YPG on the road this season. Pitt was 5-0 ATS as a dog this year prior to their last 2 contests (now 5-2) and dating back to the start of the 2018 season they are 11-3-2 ATS as a home dog. We like Pittsburgh on Xmas Day!

#131/132 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 42.5 Points - New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - It is going to be extremely cold in Lambeau Monday night and we don’t see these teams putting up a ton of points. The Saints will start rookie QB Rattler who has had some ups-and-downs this season. Last week against the Commanders he was 10/21 for 135 yards and a TD. NO’s offense is averaging just 4.7 yards per play in their last three games and have scored 14, 14, and 19 points in those games against defense’s worse than Green Bay’s. The Packer’s defense is 10th in YPPL allowed at 5.5 on the season, 9th against the run and 15th versus the pass. GB gives up the 8th fewest points per game in the NFL at 20.5. Green Bay has allowed 19 or less points in 4 of their last five games, the exception being the Lions who have one of the best O’s in the league. Green Bay will want to run the football here with their 5th best rushing O that attempts 30.7 rushes per game, 6th most. The Saints defense has been good in recent weeks allowing just 4.8YPPL which is significantly lower than their season average of 5.8YPPL allowed. New Orleans’s D has held their last 5 opponents to 21 or less points, three of which scored 17 or less.

#220 ASA PLAY ON UTSA -11 over Coastal Carolina, Monday at 11 AM ET - This line has been climbing and for good reason. UTSA opened around a TD favorite and now is laying -11 to -11.5 range. This game is actually being played on Coastal’s home field but we don’t expect any advantage here on a Monday morning, a few days prior to Xmas, with the students already on break. The atmosphere won’t favor CC in this game. In fact, we’d argue that playing at home might not be great as players like to travel on visit other cities and venues for bowl games. Playing at home might not be a motivator for the CC players. The ones that remain that is. Coastal has been hit as hard as any bowl team in regards to transfers, opt outs, etc… They will be without their top 2 QB’s including starter Vasko leaving them with 2 freshman who have yet to play in a game in their careers. The Chanticleers have a number of other starters / key players that are moving on and won’t be playing in this game as well. After struggling down the stretch as well losing 5 of their last 7 games, it seems like they have called it a season so to speak. UTSA was rising a the end of the season winning 4 of their last 6. They are coming into this one off a loss to end the season @ Army in a tight game (29-24) vs a very good team. They’ll have a huge edge at QB here with starting McCown who threw for over 3,000 yards and 24 TD’s on an offense that averaged 32 PPG on the season. Down the stretch the Roadrunner offense was even more potent topping 40 points in 4 of their last 5 games. UTSA head coach Traylor said while they do have some players in the portal, he expects most of his team to be available and play in this game. UTSA seems to be all in as opposed to CC. We’re not sure Coastal can keep up offensively here. Lay it.

#129/130 ASA PLAY ON Over 47.5 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - At first glance, this looks like a square bet but there are several factors that have us on this Over. The Cowboys are the fastest paced team in the NFL running a play every 26.7 seconds. Running more plays makes up for the Cowboys lack of explosiveness with an offense that average just 5.0 yards per play on the season. In their three most recent games the Dallas offense has been better at 5.3YPP while averaging 1-point scored for every 15.4 yards gained. After a slow start at QB, Cooper Rush has guided the Cowboys offense to 34, 27, 20 and 30-points in their last four games. Dallas should get plenty of opportunities offensively against this Bucs defense that is 27th in total yards per game allowed, 21st in YPP allowed at 5.8, 22nd in stopping the run and 30th against the pass. Tampa Bay’s offense with Baker Mayfield under center has been one of the best in the NFL this season. The Bucs have scored 20+ points in every game but one this season and average 28.8ppg which is 4th most in the league. Tampa Bay is 3rd in total YPG, 3rd in YPP, 4th in rushing and 4th in passing yards per game. The Dallas defense has regressed this season ranking 26th in total YPG allowed, 31st in YPP allowed at 6.1, 29th against the run and 21st against the pass. This game shapes up to be a shootout.

#113 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Some may argue this is a bigger game for Washington as they attempt to hold on and simply get in the playoffs.  They are currently the #7 seed while the Eagles have already clinched a playoff spot.  We would disagree with that assumption.  A win today and Philly clinches the NFC East and they now have a realistic shot at the #1 seed with Detroit racking up massive injuries down the stretch.  Washington is a bit overvalued in our opinion having played the easiest schedule in the NFL so far.  Of their 9 wins, not a single one has come vs a team with a current winning record.  Their best win thus far was vs Arizona, who is 7-7, and that was way back in September.  Their next best win came vs a Cincinnati team that is currently 6-8 and the Commaders were outgained by more than 1.0 YPP in that game.  They have lost 3 of their last 5 games with their 2 wins during that stretch coming vs Tennessee (2-10 record) and New Orleans (who is 5-9).  Their 20-19 win last week vs the Saints was not impressive as Washington was outgained 4.8 to 4.4 YPP and New Orleans was playing with their 2nd and 3rd string QB’s.  The Eagles have won 10 straight games and even more impressive they’ve outgained 8 of those 10 opponents by at least 100 yards.  Last week vs a very solid Pittsburgh team, the Eagles dominated more than the 27-13 score would indicate as they outgained Pittsburgh 401 to 163.  The Eagles have outgained their opponents by +1.0 YPP this season and in their first meeting with Washington, an 8 point win, the outgained the Commanders 6.2 YPP to 4.2 YPP.  Unlike Washington, the Eagles have some very impressive wins this year including beating the Ravens, Steelers, Packers, and Rams.  Philly should control the trenches here just as they did in the 1st game (5.7 YPC to 3.3 YPC) which should lead to a win.  We’ll take the much better team laying a small number.

#113/114 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 45.5 Points - Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Second season meetings within the division have trended towards the Under in recent years and this game has all the makings of a low scoring affair. When these teams met earlier this season in Philly they combined for 44 total points and stayed below the set number of 49. The Commanders managed just 264 total yards 4.3 yards per play. Philadelphia ran it for 228 yards and passed for another 206 at 6.3YPP. Washington is averaging 5.8YPP for the season but have dropped to 5.5YPP in their last three games. The Commanders have faced just two top 10 defenses this season out of their 14 games. In those two games against Pittsburgh and Philly they averaged less than 4.4YPP overall. Philadelphia is very content to play ball-control offense and grind out wins, just as they did last week against the Steelers. Philly has stayed Under in 5 of their last six games as a result. The Eagles average 5.7YPP on the season but that number dips to 5.1 in their last three games. Philadelphia’s defense gets our 3rd overall grading and is the best defense in terms of yards per play allowed at 4.7. The Eagles allow the fewest points in the NFL this season at 17.6. with both teams rating in the bottom half of the league in pace of play we expect a low scoring game here.

#216 ASA PLAY ON Texas -12.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Clemson is lucky to be here as they have not been great this season. They’ve beaten the low level teams but struggled with the teams on their schedule that were solid. The 4 best teams they played this season (Georgia, Louisville, SMU, and South Carolina), the Tigers lost 3 of those game including 2 at home. Their lone win in that bunch was topping SMU 34-31 in the ACC Championship game and even in that one, Clemson was outgained by 130 yards. Our power rating have the Longhorns as the best team in the nation despite their 5 seed in the CFP. Their 2 losses both came vs Georgia but the fact is they outplayed the Bulldogs statistically this season. In their first loss they Horns were outgained by 22 yards and in their tight loss in the SEC Championship game, Texas outgained UGA by more than 100 yards. They had 7 turnovers in those 2 games which cost them a chance at an undefeated season. When Clemson played Georgia this season, they lost by 31 points and were outgained by 265 yards. The Tigers defense is the worst they’ve had in over a decade ranking outside the top 40 in total defense, YPP allowed and PPG allowed. Meanwhile the Texas defense is ranked in the top 5 in each of those key categories despite playing the tougher schedule. Since the CFP started in 2014, there have been 8 teams favored by double digits and those teams are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS. Texas is the MUCH better team in this game and they are at home. This feels like a 2 TD+ win for the Horns. Lay it.

#103 ASA NFL PLAY ON Houston Texans +3.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday at 1 PM ET - The Chiefs are clearly not the dominant team they have been in the past, but they still stand 13-1 SU on the season. Kansas City has an average Margin of Victory of +5.0PPG (11th) which is insanely low for a team with 13 wins this season. KC is averaging 5.1YPP on the season which ranks 24th in the NFL. In their last 3 games they have managed just 4.5YPP against three defenses that allow 5.3YPP or more on the season. Last Sunday against a Browns defense that allows 5.6YPP the Chiefs struggled offensively with a 4.1YPP average. The Houston Texans have one of the top defenses in terms of EPA, DVOA and overall efficiency rankings. The Texans allow the 3rd fewest YPP at 4.9, have the 11best rushing defenses in terms of total yards allowed and rank 6th in passing yards allowed. Houston allows the 9th fewest points per game at 21.4ppg. Houston has a below average offense this season in most key statistical categories ranking 20th in YPP, 17th in rushing YPG and 19th in passing YPG, but they still manage to score on average 23.4ppg (13th). Kansas City’s defense has shown some holes in recent weeks allowing more yards per play in their last three games (5.5YPP) compared to their season average of 5.2. Houston has 4 less wins on the season, yet their average MOV of +2.0ppg is not much less than KC’s. With Mahomes not 100% for this game with an ankle injury and a stout Texans defense we will gladly fade the Chiefs who are 1-7 ATS their last eight games.

#211/212 ASA PLAY ON Under 52 Points – Indiana vs Notre Dame, Friday at 8 PM ET - Both defensive units are the best teams on the field in this game. Both are top 10 defense in YPG & YPP & Scoring D. Not only that, the defensive strengths match up very well vs each offense. The Irish want to run the ball and IU has the #1 rush defense in the country allowing just 71 YPG on the season. The Hoosiers offense ranks much higher in passing YPG compared to rushing YPG and the Notre Dame defense ranks #3 in the nation allowing just 157 YPG through the air. The Indiana offense has great scoring numbers putting up 43 PPG, however the 2 best defenses they’ve faced shut them down. Versus Ohio State, the Hoosiers had 15 points on 153 total yards, and versus Michigan they had 20 points on 264 total yards. On the other side, the Notre Dame offense faced very few high level defensive teams. They faced off vs 3 teams that ended the season in the top 30 in total defense. Army, who faced an incredibly weak schedule so their numbers on offense and defense were misleading, Miami OH, wo played in the MAC so same story, and Northern Illinois, who played in the MAC as well. Indiana, who ranks #2 in total defense and #3 in YPP allowed, will be the best defense Notre Dame has faced this season. Both teams are very slow paced with the Irish ranking 108th in seconds per play and Indiana ranking 104th. The weather doesn’t look great in South Bend in Friday night (windchills in the teens and 10+ MPH winds) and we think both teams struggle offensively. Under is the call.

#124 ASA PLAY ON LA Chargers -2.5 over Denver Broncos, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This is a crucial game in the AFC West between the 9-5 SU Broncos and the 8-6 SU Chargers as they battle for a spot to get into the postseason. These two teams have been undervalued by the oddsmakers this season as they have a combined 20-8 ATS record. The Broncos come into this game on a 4-game winning streak, but those W’s have come against Atlanta, Las Vegas, Cleveland and Indianapolis who aren’t elite level competition. Denver beat the Colts last week despite gaining just 3.2 Yards Per Play offensively, 193 total yards and 13 first downs. Indianapolis actually outgained the Broncos by +1.1YPP despite the lopsided final score. That seems to be a theme for Denver as they were outplayed the week before by the Browns but still managed to win 41-32. A true indication of how Denver is playing is the YPP differential of minus -0.5 over their last 3 games against three bad teams. The Chargers have faced a daunting schedule of late with a pair of big home games against the Bengals then Ravens followed by two road games at Atlanta and Kansas City, then Tampa Bay at home last week. The Chargers were thoroughly embarrassed last Sunday by the Buccaneers 17-40, getting outgained by over 300+ yards. We are betting the well-coached Chargers will bounce back this week after that humbling loss. LA was favored by 3-points earlier this season in Denver and won 23-16 with a 350 to 316 yardage advantage. The Chargers were up 23-0 into the 4th quarter before the Broncos scored a meaningless 16-points. If this game comes down to Justin Herbert or Bo Nix who do you trust more to get you a win and likely cover in the process. We’ll take Herbert.

#203/204 ASA PLAY ON Under 48 Points – California vs UNLV, LA Bowl on Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We expect Cal’s offense to struggle in this one vs a underrated UNLV defense. The offense wasn’t great to begin with ranking 82nd in YPP and 82nd in scoring (26 PPG) but that was with QB Mendoza under center. They relied very heavily on him this season as he attempted nearly 400 passes and threw for over 3,000 yards. He won’t play in this game as he’s in the portal and his back up in out as well. That means 3rd string Harris, a transfer from Ohio U who didn’t start there, will start in this game. The Bears topped their season average of 26 PPG only 4 times this season (minus FCS opponents) and 3 of those were vs defenses ranked 97th or lower. And again, that was with Mendoza at QB. UNLV’s defense ranked 36th in YPP allowed and was really good vs the run (16th nationally allowing 109 YPG on the ground) which will put a lot on the shoulders of Harris who is not an accomplished passer. UNLV held 8 opponents to 21 points or less this season including Boise State (who ranks 6th in total offense) in the MWC Championship game. Cal’s defense has been very solid this year and they have been a high level run stopping unit ranking 15th nationally allowing 107 YPG on the ground. That matches up nicely vs UNLV who loves to run the ball averaging 45 rush attempts per game (7th most in the country). This will be one of the top defenses UNLV has faced and we think they’ll struggle. Rebel head coach Odom is already off to Purdue and OC Marion is a hot commodity, including being a lead candidate for the Sacramento State head job, and the distractions for him during this bowl season have been real. The last time these 2 met in 2022 the final score was 20-14 and we think the defenses rule again. Under is the call.

#201/202 ASA PLAY ON Under 52 Points – Western Kentucky vs James Madison, Boca Raton Bowl on Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Western Kentucky has multiple players in the transfer portal including 10 starters. Some of these players will play and some won’t. Starting QB Veltkamp will transfer but he is going to play in this game. However, even with Veltkamp playing down the stretch of the regular season, the Hilltopper offense fell off a cliff. The last 4 games of the season this offense scored 7, 21, 19 and 12 points. Veltkamp had only 4 TD’s during that stretch with 3 interceptions with WKU averaging just 309 YPG. Now this offense, which will most likely be shorthanded, faced a JMU defense that ranks 25th in total defense and 16th in YPP allowed. The Hilltoppers only faced 3 defenses this season that ended the year ranked in the top 50 in total defense and they averaged 12.6 PPG in those games. While we think James Madison’s defense will be tough to crack here, the Dukes offense will struggle. They will be starting their 3rd string QB Billy Atkins in this game who has thrown 1 pass the entire season. In his 4 year career at JMU, Atkins has completed only 29 passes and his career completion percentage is just 49%. We look for the James Madison offense to rely heavily on the run here (28th in the country in carries per game) which should shorten this game eating clock. The WKU defense ranks 11th nationally vs the pass so the obvious game plan for the Dukes is ground and pound. The Hilltopper didn’t have great total defense numbers but they were very good at keep teams off the scoreboard. They held 10 of their 13 opponents to 21 points or less. The weather doesn’t look great in Boca Raton with rain and 10+ MPH winds expected. Take the Under here.

#199 ASA PLAY ON Memphis -4.5 over West Virginia, Frisco Bowl Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Bowl games are often about motivation. Who wants to be there and who doesn’t. In this game we know Memphis will be motivated but we’re not entirely about WVU. The Tigers are excited to be playing a Power 4 team in their bowl game and their head coach Silverfield has been successful in this setting with a 3-1 bowl record. That includes a 10 point win over Iowa State last season in the Liberty Bowl. Memphis brought back most of their regulars who played in that game (17 starters came back) and they have a chance for 11 wins after finishing 10-3 last year. The Tigers have a big group of seniors who have had one of the most successful runs in school history with a 20-5 record the last 2 seasons. QB Hennigan has thrown for 14,000 career yards and is one of only 3 current college QB’s with over 100 TD’s. This offense was one of the best in the country averaging just over 35 PPG and they are facing a WVU defense that ranks 118th in YPP allowed and gives up 31 PPG. The Mountaineers also lost their top starting LB who is transferring to Missouri. Memphis will have success offensively here. How to the Mountaineers respond to their head coach getting fired after the regular season? They’ve already lost 1 key assistant coach and the others are unsure of their future so focusing completely on a low tier bowl game in this situation is never ideal. We’re not sure how this team reacts to that situation. Starting QB Greene injured his shoulder in the final game of the season, a 52-15 loss vs Texas Tech, but he’s going to give it a go, but won’t be at 100%. The West Virginia offense is driven by their rushing attack which is not a good match up vs a Memphis defense that allows 103 YPG rushing (10th in the country) on 3.8 YPC. If the Neers need to rely on the arm of their injured QB who isn’t overly accurate to begin with (55% career completion rate) then this team is probably in trouble. We know Memphis is going to show up with their “A” game here and that may not happen with WVU. Let’s lay the small number.

ASA NFL play on Atlanta Falcons -5.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 8:30 PM ET - We have more faith in Falcons QB Kirk Cousins here than we do with a less than 100% QB Aidan O’Connell for the Raiders. Cousins has deservedly received a ton of criticism lately with 6 INT’s and 0 TD’s in the past two weeks. In his defense, those two games came against the Vikings and Chargers who both rank top 9 in yards per play allowed and top 10 in opponents completion percentage. The Vikings and Chargers pass defense is 1st and 6th in Interception percentage so some of Cousins' poor play can be attributed to the teams he’s faced. The Falcons are in a desperate situation here but still have playoff aspirations, trailing the Bucs by a game in the NFC South. The Raiders on the other hand are done for the season with a 2-11 SU record and playing for a future franchise QB in the NFL draft. The Raiders will be without defensive end Maxx Crosby here who is done for the season. Las Vegas relied heavily on their pass rush to make up for a below average pass defense. The Raiders are 15th in passing yards allowed, 21st in completion percentage allowed and 25th in opposing quarterbacks QBR. If the Falcons/Cousins avoid turnovers we expect a lopsided game for Atlanta who ranks 8th in total yards per game, 12th in yards per play, 2nd in passing yards per game and is 12th in rushing. The Raiders are a bottom ten team in total yards per game gained, rank 27th in yards per play and last in rushing yards per game. The Falcons defense isn’t great but they shouldn’t have a problem slowing down this Raiders offense with either O’Connell or Ridder playing QB.

#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Two high level defenses rule the day here. The Eagles lead the NFL allowing only 4.7 YPP and since their bye in week 5, they have allowed only 1.29 points per drive which is tops in the NFL during that time. They also limit explosive plays giving up an average of just 2 plays per game of more than 20 yards since their bye which is also best in the NFL. They haven’t allowed a single team to top 23 points since week 5 and are allowing just 15 PPG over their last 9. During that span they’ve held some high level offensive teams in check giving up 19 points vs Baltimore, 17 vs Cincinnati, and 18 vs Washington. We think the Steelers struggle on offense here with their top playmaker at WR Pickens who is out with a hamstring issue. Last week without Pickens, Pittsburgh was only able to put up 267 total yards vs Cleveland and QB Wilson only had 158 yards passing. The Philly offense has been all that spectacular as of late failing to top 300 total yards in each of their last 2 games vs Baltimore and Carolina. Their overall offensive numbers are decent (11th in YPP) but let’s keep in mind they have not faced a top 10 defense the entire season. Not one. In fact, not only have they not taken on a high level defense this year, they’ve already faced 7 of the 8 worst defenses (total defense) this season. The Steelers stop unit is top 10 in total defense, YPP allowed, and rush defense. These 2 offense rank #1 and #2 in rush attempts per game which eats clock. They are both slow tempo teams ranking 20th & 22nd in plays per second. Lastly, both defense are fantastic on 3rd down (#2 and #3 in opponents 3rd down conversion rate) which limits scoring drives. We like this one to stay Under the total.

#475 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Chargers offense has really been struggling as of late failing to reach 300 total yards in 3 straight games while averaging only 4.7 YPP during that stretch. If we subtract their defensive TD’s over the last 3 weeks, this offense is only averaging 16.6 PPG. Tough to lay points with a team that struggles to score. We don’t see that changing here as they have a bunch of injuries on that side of the ball. Starting QB Herbert injured his ankle last week @ KC and didn’t practice until Thursday and was limited at that point. He’ll play but won’t be 100%. His top RB Dobbins was put on IR a few weeks ago, top WR McConkey didn’t play last week and was limited in practice this week, and top TD Dissly will miss the next few weeks. Those injuries really limit this offense that wasn’t great to begin with. On Sunday they are facing one of the top offenses in the NFL as Tampa averages 28 PPG (5th in the league). Their offense has scored 30, 28, and 26 points the last 3 weeks while averaging 6.6 YPP. The Bucs rank in the top 10 in total offense, YPP, rushing yards, and passing YPG. The Chargers defense has solid overall numbers, however they’ve only faced 3 top 10 offenses this season and they allowed 27+ points in 2 of those 3 match ups. Tampa has the better YPP margin (+0.4 to +0.1) despite playing the tougher schedule. LAC is off a huge division game last week @ KC (loss) and they have another big one next week vs Denver. We like Tampa plus the points here.

PREFERENCE HERE IS 1ST HALF PLAY for those of you with access to that: #458 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -1 in the FIRST HALF over Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Houston should be ready to roll from the get go here as they are coming off a bye week. The Texans have been fantastic in the 1st half with an 11-2 ATS and they have led by an average score of 14-9 at the break. They have led at the half in every game but 2 this year and that includes being up by 14 on Buffalo and up by 16 on Detroit. The Dolphins have been a slow starter getting outscored by an average of -1.4 points in the first half and on the road they are losing by an average of -4 points at half. Away from home Miami’s offense is only averaging 6.5 points in the first half which is the 4th worst mark in the NFL. It won’t get any easier here facing a top 5 defense in Houston. On top of that, while the Texans are coming in rested off a bye, Miami will be playing their 9th straight week as their bye was in mid October. Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans has a 23-9 ATS career mark in the 1st half and QB CJ Stroud’s 23-7 first half ATS mark is the 3rd best of any QB in the last 20 years. We just need Houston to be ahead at halftime here and we’ll take it.

PREFERENCE HERE IS 1ST HALF PLAY for those of you with access to that: #463 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -9.5 in the FIRST HALF over NY Giants, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Baltimore is coming off a loss 2 weeks ago vs Philadelphia and they’ve now had 14 days (off a bye) to stew about that setback and come out with some extra fire early in this one. The Ravens are 3rd in the NFL averaging 29.5 PPG and they are averaging over 14 points in the first half. They rank #1 in the NFL in YPG, YPP, and rushing YPG and they have a mismatch here facing a NYG defense that sits 29th defending the run and 30th in YPC allowed. The Giants offense ranks dead last in the NFL in 1st half points averaging only 6.7 on the season. It’s gotten worse since the let starting QB Jones go as they’ve put up only 13 total first half points in 3 games (4.3 per game). The offense has a whole has been flat out bad all year but since Jones departure they have averaged only 4.3 YPP which is the worst in the NFL in that 3 game stretch. Back up QB, and now starter, Drew Lock will not be available in this game so they are back to their 3rd stringer Tommy DeVito. In his one start this season, the Giants scored 7 points (only TD in the 4th quarter) on 245 total yards vs a bad Tampa Bay defense. We don’t trust laying the full 16.5 with Baltimore for fear they get a lead and take their foot off the gas in the 2nd half. That won’t happen in the first half as we expect the Ravens to come out and put up big numbers early before tapering back. Lay the 9.5 in the first half with Baltimore.

#459 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets -3 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Our feelings on these two teams is this. One has quite obviously quit on their coach (Jags) and the other has not (Jets). Jacksonville may have won last week but it came against a bad Tennessee team. The Jags managed 291 total yards of offense and 5.0YPP. The Jets are off an OT loss to the Dolphins but had one of their best offensive games of the season with over 400+ yards of offense at 6.4YPP. Aaron Rodgers is not the player he once was but he’s still significantly better than Jaguars QB Mac Jones. The Jets offense should click against this Jags D that is 31st against the pass, allowing 263PYPG, 30th in completion percentage allowed and last in the NFL in Yards per attempt allowed. New York has put up 27, 21 and 26 points in their last three games against better defenses than this Jaguars unit. Jacksonville will have a tough time moving the ball here against a Jets D that allows the 3rd fewest yards per play at 4.9, gives up the 3rd fewest total YPG, rank 5th in yards per rush allowed and is 3rd against the pass. Mac Jones is 1-4 SU as a starting QB for Jacksonville with 2 TD’s to 5 INT’s and a 62.5% completion rate. These teams have identical 3-10 SU records, but the Jets have an average differential of minus -3.8ppg compared to the Jags -8.2ppg. We are betting Aaron Rodgers is not content riding off into the sunset on a losing note with just 4 games possibly left in his career.

#451 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams +3 over San Francisco 49ers, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - The Rams record (6-6) is a bit misleading in our opinion. They had tons of injuries early in the season including both of their top WR’s were out and lots of mixing and matching on the offensive line due to guys being out. Over the last few months this team has gotten healthy and they have become a dangerous team winning 6 of their last 8 games. Rams head coach McVay always has his teams playing well late in the season with a spread record of 13-2 ATS their last 15 December games. While the Rams are healthy, the Niners continue with their injury problems on both sides of the ball. On defense they have 8 guys either out or questionable in the 2 deep, RB McCaffrey remains out and his back up is now banged up, and the offensive line has some question marks. After losing 3 in a row, San Fran finally got a win last week at home vs the Bears, however Chicago is a free fall and was coming off 3 huge division losses and looked like they were out of gas. Just a huge game for LA who currently sits 1 spot out of the playoffs in the 8th position and a win here improves their chances to 50-50 to make the post-season. SF has only a 5% chance to make the playoffs and while they haven’t been officially eliminated, for all intents and purposes they are out. Thursday night games can be a benefit to the home team if their opponent has to make a long trip but this 1 hour flight for LA shouldn’t affect them negatively in any way. Take the points on Thursday night.

ASA NFL play on Dallas Cowboys +5.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 8:20 PM ET - We are betting the Bengals don’t have any gas left in the tank, coming off three huge games, two of which were in the division against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They were on the road for two straight then came home and lost to Pittsburgh last week and are now back on the road in Dallas. The Cowboys have won two in a row with mistake free football and Cooper Rush as their starting QB. Dallas got a huge upset in Washington two weeks ago as a double-digit underdog, then won at home 27-20 last week against the Giants. Cincinnati’s defense has been atrocious, allowing 7.2 Yards Per Play in their last three games and 7.9YPP last week against the Steelers. This Bengals defense is the 4th worst in the NFL in DVOA rankings and can’t stop the run (128RYPG) or the pass (241PYPG) while giving up an average of 28.3PPG which is 31st in the NFL. After scoring just 6 and 10-points, the Cowboys offense has put up 34 and 27-points in the last two weeks and shouldn’t have a problem finding the endzone against this Bengals D. Granted, the Bengals QB Burrow has put up MVP type numbers, but how interested are the Bengals tonight with a very slim chance of still making the playoffs. Not to mention, the strength of the Dallas defense is in the passing game as they allow the 13th fewest passing yards per game and rank 8th in completions allowed. The Cowboys could have given up the last few weeks and didn’t and will compete tonight in front of their home crowd. Grab the points and the home dog.

#136 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals -2.5 over Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These 2 NFC West rivals just faced off 2 weeks ago. The Cardinals were favored by -1 in that game and now we’re getting them only a point and a half higher at home (currently -2.5). In that first meeting, Seattle won the game 16-6 but the Cards outgained the Hawks 5.3 to 4.7 YPP. The huge turning point in that game as a 70 yard pick 6 by Seattle midway through the 3rd quarter with the score sitting at 7-3. Arizona had a tough spot off that loss having to travel to one of the top teams in the NFL (@ Minnesota) for difficult back to back road games. Again, the Cards did lose @ Minnesota last Sunday 23-22 on a late Viking TD with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game. That was the first time Arizona trailed in that game and they outgained the Vikings 406 to 273 total yards. Now they are back at home in a must win spot sitting 1 game out of first place behind the Seahawks. This week Seattle is in the tough situation having to travel to the east coast last Sunday @ NYJ and now on the road again this week. They trailed the Jets 21-7 and had to make a furious comeback to win 26-21 propelled by a 92 yard interception return for a TD. That was Seattle’s 3rd straight win however their offense only averaged 277 yards on 4.7 YPP in those wins. The total yardage in those 3 games was dead even with Seattle gaining 833 total yards and their opponents gaining 833 total yards yet the Seahawks won all 3 (they benefitted from defensive TD’s in 2 of those wins). The offense is struggling and may now be without top RB Walker who has a calf and an ankle injury. Arizona has played the #1 strength of schedule in the NFL so far this season yet they are still +0.5 YPP margin which is good for 7th best in the NFL. Seattle has played a middle of the pack schedule thus far yet they are dead even in YPP margin (+0.0). We like Arizona to win this game by more than a FG.

#127/128 ASA PLAY ON OVER 46.5 Points - Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We are going back to the well on the Bucs Over the total this week after narrowly winning last Sunday. Carolina/Tampa Bay put up 49 points last week, but it took OT to get there. In all reality that game could have been much higher as TB left a lot of points off the board. The Bucks racked up 445 total yards of offense but settled for four field goals. Carolina averaged a respectable 5.4 yards per play and put up 23 points but also missed a pair of field goals. The Raiders offense has been suspect in recent games, failing to top 20 points in three straight weeks. Las Vegas has averaged 5.7 yards per play in their last three games and put up a huge YPP number last game of 6.9 against a very good KC defense. LV missed 3 FG’s against the Chiefs, had one turnover on downs at the KC 31 and then fumbled late in the game on the Chiefs 32. Clearly the Raiders could have easily put up 27 or more points in that game with a few breaks. Las Vegas will face a Bucs defense that is not very good, allowing 26ppg, 6.0YPP and 4.7 yards per rush. The Raiders have a solid defense this season, but Tampa Bay with Mayfield is 5th in YPP offense at 6.2, 6th in total YPG, 4th in yards per rush and put up 28ppg, 5th most in the NFL. Last week the Panthers played very deliberately on offense but that won’t be the case this week as the Raiders can let everything hang out in this game with nothing left to play for. This turns into a shootout with both teams putting up points.

#134 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Dolphins -5.5 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1 PM ET - There are some very interesting historical trends in this game that support Miami and go against the Jets. We will get to those later. Miami comes into this game off a loss in Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day so they’ve had extra time to prepare for this AFC East showdown. The cold/windy conditions certainly played an impact in that 17-30 loss to the Packers. Looking at Miami’s three previous games we see they were -7.5 at home against New England and won 34-15. The week prior they were laying -8-points at home against the Raiders and won 34-19. The Jets aren’t any better than those two teams and it looks like they’ve quit on the season for a lame duck coach and quarterback. New York is off a stinging loss at home to the Seahawks 21-26, a game in which they led 21-7 before giving up 19 unanswered points in a demoralizing loss. The Dolphins have a +0.1 yards per play differential in their last three games compared to the Jets who are minus 1.3YPP, the 4th worst number int the NFL. The Jets will be without a couple key starters with Breece Hall and Sauce Gardiner out this Sunday, and let’s face it, Rodgers is not the QB he once was and currently ranks 25th in QBR rating. In their last 9 games the Jets are 1-8 ATS and continue to be over-valued by the Books. New York has 1 road win on the season back in week 2 at Tennessee and four of their five road losses have come by 6+ points. Miami has won 13 of the last sixteen meetings with the Jets, with Tua going 4-0 SU and winning those four by an average of +8.6ppg. When Miami with Tua under center has been favored by 6 or more points the Fish have gone 15-1 SU, 12-4 ATS in those games. The Dolphins win this game big.

#118 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON SMU -2.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 8 PM ET - SMU has just 1 loss on the season, a 3 point setback to a very good BYU team (10-2 record), and that was prior to current QB Jennings taking over as the starter for a struggling Preston Stone. Since Jennings has been starting under center, the Mustangs are 9-0 winning by an average score of 41-21. During that stretch they beat a number of bowl teams including Louisville by 7 on the road, TCU by 24, @ Duke by 1, Pitt by 13, BC by 10, and Cal by 32, all teams .500 or better. The Mustangs are really good on both sides of the ball with a top 25 offense and defense in a YPP basis. They have the 4th best rush defense in the country allowing only 95 YPG on 2.8 YPC and they have outgained their opponents by an average of +1.8 YPP. Clemson hasn’t really beaten any really good teams this season. The only team they beat that ended the season with a winning record was Pitt and in that game the Panthers outgained Clemson by almost 100 yards and the Tigers scored a TD with 1:16 remaining to win 24.20. Whenever the Tigers had to step up in class they fell short losing big to Georgia by 31, to Louisville by 12 at home, and to South Carolina by 3 at home. If you subtract their 1 good win vs Pitt, who finished with a 7-5 record and was trending down at the end of the year, the Tigers other 7 wins (vs FBS opponents) were vs teams that had a combined record of 25-46. SMU is the better team on both sides of the ball in this game and fared much better vs common opponents. We like SMU to win this one by more than a FG.

#112 ASA PLAY ON Miami OH -2.5 over Ohio, Saturday at 12 PM ET - These 2 met earlier this season and Miami dominated the Bobcats. The final score was 30-20 but that was not indicative of the lopsided play on the field. Miami led 30-6 with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game and Ohio scored 2 meaningless TD’s late. Ohio finished with 291 total yards on just 3.8 YPP and 91 of those yards came on their last 2 drives of the game, both TD’s. The Redhawks averaged 6.4 YPP in the game, outrushed Ohio 5.0 to 3.3 YPC, and averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt to 4.2 for the Bobcats. Just complete domination in that win. These 2 both have just 1 loss in MAC play, however Miami has played the much tougher slate in conference facing Bowling Green, NIU, Toledo, and Ohio, the 4 highest rated teams in the league besides themselves. Ohio, on the other hand, avoided both BG and NIU with their only decent win on MAC playing coming vs Toledo. Despite that, the Redhawks still had the better YPP margin in conference play (+1.6 to +1.2). Last week, Miami dominated a very good BG team on the road in what was a play in game for the MAC Championship. They win 28-12, outgained the Eagles by over 100 yards and had a +2.2 YPC margin. We get the better QB in this game as well on our side with Miami’s Gabbert, a 6th year senior, who has thrown for over 10,000 yards with 80 TD’s and 29 picks. Ohio QB Navarro is a senior as well, but a 1st year starter who has thrown for 2,100 career yards with just 13 TD’s and 11 picks. Miami was in this game last year and won giving them an edge as well. The Redhawks win their 2nd straight MAC Title on Saturday

#107 ASA PLAY ON UNLV +4 over Boise State, Friday at 8 PM ET - These 2 met earlier this season and Boise pulled out a 29-24 win and despite the loss UNLV outgained the Broncos by nearly +1.0 YPP (6.3 to 5.4 YPP). The only turnover in the game was an interception thrown by UNLV QB Williams that led to a short 17-yard TD drive for Boise which turned out to be the difference in the game. We were very impressed with the Rebels rush defense as they held All American RB Jeanty to only 3.9 YPC. If they can accomplish that again, we like UNLV to win this game outright. They have a great shot at doing so as the Rebs rank 10th in the nation holding opponents to only 101 YPG rushing on 3.1 YPC. If UNLV can slow down Boise’s run game, the Broncos will have to rely on QB Madsen who has struggled down the stretch completing less than 55% of his passes in 4 of their last 6 games. This Boise State team has been trending down in our opinion. Last week they beat a bad Oregon State team but the Broncos were outgained 6.0 YPP to 5.7 YPP. In their 3 games leading up to last week’s win vs OSU, the Broncos needed a late TD to beat Wyoming who finished with a 3-9 record, they beat SJSU but were outgained in the stats but helped by 4 Spartan turnovers, and barely held on to beat a 3-10 Nevada team by a TD. UNLV ranks 4th nationally averaging 254 YPG rushing and they’ve outrushed their last 4 opponents by an average of +200 YPG on the ground. We love a good running team that has a solid defense as an underdog. UNLV keeps this very close and has a great shot to win it outright.

#103 ASA PLAY ON Tulane -4.5 over Army, Friday at 8 PM ET - We definitely respect Army’s 10-1 record, however they have played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They only really decent team they’ve faced this year was Notre Dame a few weeks ago and they were blasted 49-14 in that game. Tulane will definitely be the 2nd best team Army has faced this season. The only team they faced this season (besides Notre Dame) that ended the year with a winning record was ECU (7-5 record). The Cadets have been trending down over the last month or so struggling with North Texas (Army was outgained 5.1 YPP to 4.5 YPP in that game), they were creamed by Notre Dame, and last week struggled with UTSA (Army outgained 6.0 to 5.3). Tulane comes in off a loss vs Memphis last week but they completely outplayed the Tigers with a YPP advantage of 7.3 to 5.9. Three turnovers by the Green Wave (0 for Memphis) was the difference in that loss. Tulane had won 8 straight games prior to last week’s lost and the average score in those 8 wins was 43-15. The Wave have played the much tougher schedule yet they still have better YPG and YPP margins. Their defense matches up very well with the Army option attack as Tulane has held teams to just 124 YPG rushing this season and they already faced a similar attack vs Navy a few weeks ago and rolled the Midshipmen 35-0 holding them to 100 yards rushing. Green Wave 1st year head coach Jon Summerall has faced Army each of the last 2 seasons when he was the head man at Troy and the Cadets scored a total of 9 points in those 2 contests. Tulane is the much better team in this match up and we’ll lay the small number.

#106 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State -4.5 over Western Kentucky, Friday at 7 PM ET - These 2 just met last weekend @ WKY with the Hilltoppers pulling out a 19-17 win on a 50 yard FG as time expired. Western Kentucky rank 23 more offensive snaps in the game yet still needed a long FG with seconds remaining to get the win. WKY had everything to play for in that game needing a win to make it to this week’s CUSA Championship game while JSU was already locked into this game so not a ton to play for last week. Even with that, Jacksonville State outgained WKY 5.5 to 5.1 YPP. The Gamecocks completely dominated the ground game, as expected, rolling up 229 yards rushing on 5.9 YPC to Western Kentucky’s 105 yards rushing on 3.0 YPC. Now that JSU has everything to play for (a CUSA Championship) we see those numbers being even more lopsided this week. They rank 3rd in the nation in rushing averaging 257 YPG on 5.6 YPC and facing a Hilltopper defense that allows over 200 YPG rushing (123rd nationally). We need to keep an eye on Jacksonville State QB Huff who was banged up in last week’s game but all indications are he’ll play in this one. He left early in the 2nd half last week and despite the JSU still led the game, on the road, with only a few seconds remaining. Leading into last week’s game, WKY had been struggling to say the least losing back to back games vs Liberty and La Tech and failing to cover 4 straight. Despite the win last week, as we mentioned they were outplayed in the stats and we like Jacksonville State in this quick revenge spot.

#101 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers +3.5 over Detroit Lions, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - While Green Bay is fairly healthy right now coming off their win over Miami on Thanksgiving, Detroit is not. The Lions had defensive players dropping right and left in their 3 point home win last Thursday over Chicago. Detroit built a solid 16-0 first half lead and Chicago struggled to do anything on offense prior to the break (38 total yards in the first half). However, as Detroit started losing defensive players in the 2nd half, the Chicago offense took off scoring 20 points and putting up 259 yards after the break. The Lions defensive line was decimated and many of those players didn’t practice this week including 2 starters. Green Bay’s offense is peaking right now averaging 6.6 YPP over their last 3 games while putting up 29 PPG during that stretch. In their first meeting, the Packers only scored 14 points, however they racked up 411 total yards on 6.6 YPP and only punted twice. They had plenty of opportunities to put more points on the board and now with Detroit’s defense banged up they should have success here. Speaking of the first meeting a few weeks ago, Detroit won the game 24-14 but were outgained 411 to 262 (6.6 YPP to 4.7 YPP). The Packers also averaged 7.0 yards per pass attempt to 6.0 for Detroit and 6.0 YPC rushing to 3.9 for the Lions. A clean sweep of the key stats for Green Bay. A Jordan Love pick 6 late in the first half changed the complexion of that game. Love has been much better at protecting the ball as of late with no turnovers the last 2 games. If the Packers don’t lose the turnover battle in this one, we give them a great shot at the upset. Take the points.

ASA NFL play on UNDER 42 Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos, 8:15 PM ET - There is a lot of noise surrounding the Denver Broncos, rookie QB Bo Nix and their surprising 7-5 start but we are not as impressed as others. Nix/Denver has faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season and his overall numbers are inflated as a result. In fact, Denver ranks 23rd in passing yards per game and 21st in yards per play at 5.1 despite the soft schedule. Cleveland is going to pressure Nix with the 4th best sack percentage in the league at 9.04%. The Browns pass defense around league average in terms of yards per game allowed at 214.4. Cleveland gives up 5.7YPP on the season but have also faced 5 opponents in their last seven games that rank top 10 in YPP offense. Denver is clearly not one of those teams. The Broncos defense allows the second fewest YPP on the season at 4.7, rank 4th in yards per point allowed and give up just 16.8ppg (2nd). The Browns offense is one of the worst in the NFL averaging 16.9ppg (31st) and it takes 17.3 yards gained per point, also second to last in the league. This is a very low O/U number but we don’t expect this game to get into the 40’s.

#479 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles +3 over Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Eagles are rolling winning 7 in a row following their bye week back in early October. Their point differential during that 7 game run is +107 (+15.3 PPG) and they outgained all 7 of those opponents by more than 100 yards! The Eagles have a +115 YPG differential which is #1 in the NFL and their YPP differential is #2. The offense has scored at least 26 points in 6 straight games and the defense is #1 in total defense and #2 in YPP allowed. This stop unit has allowed only 1 team to top 23 points this season. Baltimore is on a short week after beating the Chargers in LA on Monday night and they have yet to get a week off playing for the 13th straight week. As good as the Ravens have been at times, they do have 4 losses on the season including setbacks vs the Browns and Raiders. Their offense has been outstanding but the Ravens defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL ranking 24th in total defense, 23rd in scoring defense, and 31st in pass defense. The loss of defensive coordinator McDonald to Seattle has had a big impact on that side of the ball. We think they’ll really struggle vs a Philly offense that is explosive putting up 24 more plays of 20 or more yards than their opponents, the largest margin in the league. The Eagles have been tabbed underdogs twice this season and they won both of those games outright and we think they have a solid shot again on Sunday. Both of these offenses are outstanding but we’re getting the much better defense with Philadelphia and we’re getting points. Take it.

#475/476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 46.5 Carolina vs Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4 PM ET - TB ranks 4th in the NFL averaging 28 PPG on the season. Carolina’s overall offensive numbers are shaky, which is why this total is set lower than in should be in our opinion, but the Panthers have played much better on that side of the ball as of late. They have scored 23, 20, and 27 points over the last 3 weeks. Their most recent offensive output was 27 points vs a KC defense that ranks 8th in the NFL allowing only 19 PPG. Since Carolina gave QB Bryce Young his starting job back, he’s played well with his 2 highest QB rating games coming the last 2 weeks. His resurgence should continue vs a TB defense that ranks 29th in total defense. Carolina’s defense ranks one spot lower at 30th so no reason to believe the Bucs offense won’t have their way as well. Not only that, the Panthers defense ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 31 PPG on 2.75 points per possession which is also worst in the league. The Tampa defense has allowed at least 27 points in 5 of their last 7 games and the only team they really “shut down” offensively over that stretch was the NYG who were relegated to their 3rd string QB for the game. Six of Carolina’s last eight opponents have scored at least 28 points. The weather looks great in Charlotte on Sunday with temps in the 50’s and light winds. These 2 have combined to play 22 games this season and 15 have gone Over the total. Both teams have offensive success on Sunday and this goes Over the posted total.

#461 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +6 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Commanders got off to a red hot start winning 7 of their first 9 games but have hit a wall losing 3 straight. In hindsight, while they were winning, it maybe wasn’t as impressive as first thought with 6 of their 7 wins coming against teams that are currently below .500. Their one win over a decent team was vs Arizona (6-5 record) but their other 6 wins have come vs teams with a combined record of 18-51! It could be argued that today’s opponent, the Tennessee Titans, also fall into that “bad team” category. However, we like the way the Titans are playing solid right now winning 2 of their last 4 games including a win last week @ Houston and they outgained the Texans by more than 100 yards. Even in their 2 losses over the last month, vs Minnesota & LA Chargers (both playoff teams), Tennessee outgained both (YPP) but fell short. They have actually outgained their last 5 straight opponents (YPP) and despite their 3-8 record, they have a +0.1 YPP margin which is the same as the Chiefs & Chargers and better than the Steelers, Rams, and Dolphins to name a few. QB Levis has played much better with 3 of his top 4 QBR games coming the last month. The Titans defense remains very good ranking #2 in total defense, #3 in YPP allowed, and #2 in 3rd down defense. We think Washington’s offense, which has been heading downhill, struggles in this game. The Commanders are averaging 5.9 YPP on the season but only 4.9 YPP over their last 3 games including a loss at home vs a poor Dallas team last week as a 10 point favorite. Washington hasn’t covered a game in a month and we think Tennessee has a solid shot at the upset here. Take the points.

#372 ASA PLAY ON James Madison -3.5 over Marshall, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Marshall is on a 5 game winning streak but digging into the stats they have been very fortunate to say the least. The Herd have actually been outgained in 3 of those 5 wins and were dead even yardage wise in another. They’ve benefitted from opponent’s mistakes as they are +7 turnovers in those 5 games. On top of that, not one of their opponents during this 5 game run currently has a winning record. Now they run into a James Madison team that is 8-3 this season and they are a perfect 5-0 at home and they’ve win 15 of their last 17 home games. Marshall is playing their 2nd straight road game and they are 2-3 on the road this year and just 3-8 away from home since the start of last season. They will be facing a motivated JMU team who is coming off a loss @ App State as a 7 point favorite. The Dukes also have a chance to knock Marshall out of the Sun Belt Championship game as a win here puts the Herd in that game next week (extra pressure on the road team to win this one). Last week Marshall played @ ODU (who is now 4-7 on the season) and the line in that game was the Monarchs favored by 3. They were outgained in that game 513 to 469, ODU has 2 turnovers (0 for Marshall) and the Herd scored a late TD to win by 7. Now we’re getting nearly the same number @ JMU (currently -3.5) and the Dukes are a much better team than ODU (JMU was favored @ ODU just a few weeks ago). JMU is the better team across the board with better YPP, YPG, and YPC margins and playing in their home finale. Marshall is vastly overvalued right now with a 9-1 ATS record which is why we are getting this great value with JMU at home. Lay the small number with James Madison on Saturday night.

#421 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State +2.5 at Iowa State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This is one of the best rivalries in all of college football and we expect Kansas State to upset the Cyclones on their home field in this Big 12 showdown. The Wildcats have the better overall differential at +0.9 Yards Per Play compared to Iowa State’s +0.6YPP, yet have played the much tougher overall schedule. We have maintained all season long that the Cyclones were over-rated and this is a great opportunity to step in with a bet against them. Kansas State has a huge rushing advantage in this game with an offense that averages over 209 rushing yards per game at an incredible 6.0 Yards per rush. Iowa State is vulnerable to strong rushing attacks as they allow over 176 rushing yards per game and a 5.1 yards per carry average which ranks 112th. The Wildcats are solid in all phases of the game defensively as they give up just 340YPG on the season (40th), 5.3YPP (50th) and 3.4 yards per rush (20th). Last season when these two teams met, Kansas State outplayed Iowa State with 22 more first downs, more total yards and a +24 minute TOP advantage but the Cyclones hit 5 touchdown plays of 60+ yards in their upset win. The dog has been the play in this series with an 80% cover rate going back 10 full seasons. The Wildcats pull the upset and get this road win.

#438 ASA PLAY ON USC +8 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line is too high in our opinion. USC was +3 to +3.5 at home vs Penn State this year and the game went to OT. We have PSU and ND rated within 1 point of each other yet we’re getting more than a TD in this one. ND has been rolling over opponents during their current 9 game winning streak but they haven’t played many good teams during that stretch. The best team they faced in that 9 game run was Louisville (who is currently 7-4) and while the Irish won that game at home, they were outgained by 115 yards. Speaking of playing at home, the Irish have not played a true road game since traveling to Purdue in mid September. They’ve played 3 neutral site games since then but not a true road game. The situation for the Irish isn’t great either as they played in NYC last week vs Army and now travel to the west coast this week while USC has basically been at home for the last 3 weeks (played @ UCLA across town last week and home vs Nebraska prior to that). The Trojans are much better than their 6-5 record with a YPP margin of +0.6 and a YPG margin of +65 playing a MUCH more difficult schedule than ND (15th SOS for USC and 65th for ND). USC has been unlucky to say the least with their 5 losses coming by a combined 19 points with none by more than a TD. Notre Dame has very rarely been dominant when facing USC in LA with only ONE win by more than a TD in the last 27 meetings on the west coast. We like USC getting more than a TD here.

#347 ASA PLAY ON South Carolina +3 over Clemson, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Our power ratings have South Carolina as the better team that has played the significantly more difficult schedule but they still have better YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempts margins despite that. The Gamecocks have played a top 20 strength of schedule while Clemson ranks outside the top 60 in that category. SC has already played the likes of Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M and Missouri. They are on a solid 5 game winning streak entering this rivalry game and they’ve covered 5 of their last 6 games. SC has lost 7 of the last 8 (including last year) in this series so they will be motivated to turn the tables on Saturday. The best team Clemson played this season was Georgia and that was a 31 point blowout loss. Other than that, the Tigers have played only 2 teams that currently have a winning record, Louisville and Pitt. They lost by double digits at home vs the Cards and beat the Panthers by 4 despite getting outgained by almost 100 yards. We expect the Gamecocks to win in the trenches here with one of the top DL’s in the country allowing 2.9 YPG (7th nationally) and 4.6 YPP (8th nationally). They are facing a banged up Clemson offensive line that had problems having enough players up front to practice last week. On top of that, Clemson may have some extra added pressure here as they do have a shot at the CFB Playoffs with a win here despite their easy schedule. South Carolina would like nothing better than to end that dream and we think they do. The Gamecocks win this game.

#333/334 ASA PLAY ON Over 39.5 Points – Nebraska vs Iowa, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - The weather will be cold in Iowa City on Friday night (temps in the low 20’s at kickoff) but very light winds so the offenses should be able to use their full arsenal both on the ground and through the air. Iowa was historically an Under team, however this year that has changed dramatically. The Hawkeyes 9-2 to the Over this season and they are averaging 29 PPG which is up from 15 PPG last season. At home they’ve put up at least 40 points (by themselves) 4 times including 3 Big 10 games. They are facing a Nebraska defense that hasn’t been great down the stretch. Last week they allowed 25 points to Wisconsin but it could have been worse as the Badgers averaged 7.4 YPP in that game. The Huskers have allowed at least 6.0 YPP in 4 straight games and over their last 5 games they’ve allowed an average of 31 PPG. On the other side of the ball, the Huskers played outstanding last week with 44 points on almost 500 yards vs a Wisconsin defense that allowed 16 points to Oregon a week earlier. New OC Dana Holgersen took over just a few weeks ago and their offense is taking shape nicely as he and the players get accustomed to what needs to be done. QB Railoa has really started to play well under Holgorsen completing over 70% of his passes in each of the last 2 games for nearly 500 yards through the air. A huge weight was lifted off Nebraska’s shoulders last week as their win over Wisconsin got them to bowl eligible for the first time since 2016. They can play loose here and be aggressive on offense. These to Big 10 rivals have gotten to at least 41 points in 10 of their last 11 meetings with the only exception being last year when Iowa had the worst offense in the nation (both total offense and scoring) and the total was set at 25 points. We look for both teams to get to at least 20 here which puts it Over the total.

#327 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +26 over Ole Miss, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - We were on Ole Miss last weekend @ Florida and missed that one badly. The Rebs were coming out of a bye and needed a big win to keep their CFB Playoff hopes alive. They laid an egg and lost as a double digit favorite and now their hopes are out the window. How do they respond here vs a 2-9 MSU team? We’re guessing the Rebels will be flat as a pancake with no CFB Playoff in their future. On the other sidelines, this is Mississippi State’s Super Bowl so to speak. They would like nothing more than to close out their season with an upset win over their rival. The Bulldogs have already shown the can hang with the big boys covering @ Georgia (lost by 10 as a 32 point dog), @ Tennessee (lost by 19 as a 26 point dog), vs Texas A&M (lost by 10 as a 21 point dog) and @ Texas (lost by 22 as a 30+ point dog). MSU has lost only 1 game all season by more than 24 points. In SEC play, Ole Miss has only 1 win by more than 24 points. The Bulldogs are still playing hard covering 5 of their last 7 games and they’ve covered all 4 of their games when a dog of more than 2 TD’s (see above). The last time Ole Miss beat Mississippi State by more than 17 points was back in 2008 and they’ve beaten MSU by more than this spread (currently 26) just 2 times since 1988. We expect the Bulldogs to hang around in this one and get the cover.

#306 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions -9.5 over Chicago Bears, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET - Chicago has played much better at home the last 2 weeks but they still lost both games to Green Bay & Minnesota. Losing on a blocked FG vs the Packers and then in OT vs the Vikings had to take a lot out of this team both physically and emotionally. Even in those tight games, the stats were heavily in favor of the road games. Green Bay outgained Chicago 8.5 YPP to 5.8 YPP and Minnesota outgained the Bears 7.0 to 5.5 YPP. Those games could have and probably should have been easy wins for GB & Minnesota. Now Chicago going on the road, on a short week vs the best team in the NFL is a really tough spot. They aren’t playing for a whole lot right now as their playoff chances are less than 1% with a 4-7 record. The Lions just keep winning and covering week after week and we’re getting them at a nice price here (currently -9.5 as of this writing). The Lions are 9-2 ATS this season and now 44-18 vs the number since the start of the 2021 season. If Detroit was going to get clipped and play a poor game, last week @ Indy was a perfect spot for that to happen and they still dominated 24-6 outgaining the Colts by +120 yards. Detroit remains one of the top 3 teams in the NFL in YPP margin at +1.0 and Chicago has the 2nd worst YPP margin in the league at -1.1. The offense is rolling for Detroit scoring at least 40 points in 4 of their last 8 games & they’ve scored a TD on almost 36% of their possessions, by far the best in the NFL. Now they face a Chicago defense trending down allowing 6.8 YPP over their last 3 games. Favorites on Thanksgiving Day have been fantastic with a 38-19 ATS record since 2004. It’s always a tough spot for the road team playing on a Holiday and we like Detroit by double digits in this game.

#273 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -2.5 over LA Chargers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We like backing the Ravens off a loss in this one. They are 6-1 ATS the game following their last 7 SU losses. Their 18-16 loss @ Pittsburgh last week was very misleading as Baltimore outgained Pitt 6.1 YPP to 4.1 YPP. The Ravens also had 3 turnovers which led directly to half of Pittsburgh’s points (9) and they missed 2 FG’s. It was a game Baltimore should have won and we look for them to bounce back strong on Monday night. The Chargers have a solid 7-3 record but they’ve played the 30th ranked strength of schedule thus far and have just 1 win over a team that is currently above .500 (Denver). Their other wins have come against were Carolina, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Cleveland, Tennessee, and Cincinnati who have a combined record of 20-46. Despite their easy slate thus far, the Chargers YPP differential is +0.3 which is 10th in the NFL compared to Baltimore’s +1.5 YPP differential with is #1 in the league. LA is only outgaining their opponents on a YPG basis by +9 yards (Ravens are +69 YPG). The Charger defense has good overall numbers, however when they finally faced an offense with a pulse last week, the Bengals put up 452 yards and 27 points. We don’t see them slowing down this Raven’s offense that has been historically good to date averaging 7.0 YPP. To put that in perspective, over the last 20+ years, no team in the NFL has ended the season with a YPP of more than 6.7. Baltimore hasn’t been great as a heavy favorite when Lamar Jackson starts at QB, however as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog they are 25-6 ATS in the regular season.

#263 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +7.5 over Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans continue to find ways to lose games, but we wouldn’t be surprised if they won this game outright. Tennessee has the 11th rated defense in terms of DVOA and give up the 4th fewest yards per play at 4.8YPP. The question surrounding the Titans each week is their offense and QB Will Levis. Levis has actually played well the last two weeks with 3 TD’s to 1 INT and completing 23/54 passes for 470 total yards. Tennessee’s offense is averaging just 4.9YPP for the season but they have improved that number to 5.5YPP in their last three games. Houston has regressed offensively in recent weeks going from 5.2YPP on the season to just 4.8YPP in their last three games. They put up big numbers last week against the Cowboys, but who doesn’t these days. Houston is very good defensively this season allowing just 4.9YPP but they had several key starters out this week with injuries. Tennessee’s last four losses have come against: Minnesota, LA Chargers, Detroit and Buffalo who all rate substantially better than Houston. The Texans are off a MNF win over instate Dallas and will letdown against this 2-win Titans team. Grab the points.

#252 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +7.5 over Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is a great buy low/sell high spot to fade the Lions and bet on the Colts. Detroit is rolling with a 9-1 SU/ 8-2 ATS record which has driven this number up above a touchdown. The Lions are coming off a 52-6 shellacking of the Jaguars and have a short week of prep for a Thanksgiving Day game and may not be entirely focused here. The competitive Colts are coming off a road win over the Jets which wasn’t a fluke as they outgained the New York by +0.1YPP. Colts QB Richardson played one of his best games in the NFL going 20/30 for 272 yards with a TD. Indianapolis, with Richardson under center, have now won 4 of his last five starts. The Lions have a few key injuries defensively and it's unrealistic to expect them to continue to play at this extremely high level. The Colts defense has the right zone-scheme to counter the Lions QB Goff who has struggled in games versus this system. Two weeks ago, against a similar defense, Goff threw 5 INT’s to Houston. The Colts have not been a home dog of more points this season and the Lions haven’t laid more than a TD on the road. The Colts running game which averages 4.5 per attempt should keep Indianapolis in this game from start to finish.

#258 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Commanders -10 over Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Cowboys have some big-time problems. Players are complaining about the coach, their defense has dropped way off from top 10 in YPP allowed last year to 30th this year, and their offense under backup QB Rush hasn’t been able to score (16 points in 2 games). If Dallas was going to rally and play well, it would have been at home during their last 2 games vs archrival Philadelphia and on Monday night in front of the whole world vs Houston. They didn’t rally to say the least. They looked terrible losing those games by a combined score of 68-16. Now they go on the road, on a short week after playing Monday night, vs a rested opponent. Washington played on Thursday and lost vs the Eagles. The Commanders will be hungry here after losing 2 straight (vs Pitt & Philly – 2 of the better teams in the NFL) and they were rolled twice by the Cowboys last season. The Dallas defense has allowed at least 30 points in 4 of their last 5 games and they are facing a Washington offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in total offense, YPP offense, and Rushing. Their running game is putting up 148 YPG and that plays directly into the Cowboys biggest weakness on defense as they rank 31st allowing 151 YPG rushing. The Commander’s defense has been trending up allowing 5.3 YPP over their last 3 and even better at home this year where they give up only 4.6 YPP. New Washington head coach Quinn was the Cowboys DC last year so he should have a pretty good idea on how to defend an already struggling offense. Mike McCarthy is just 13-31-1 SU and 14-31 ATS vs. teams with a winning record since 2017 and Dallas has a home game on Thanksgiving on deck so don’t be surprised if that’s the game they are more focused on. Something is wrong in Dallas and we think they get rolled here.

#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 46 Points – New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Don’t pay much attention to Miami’s season long offensive numbers which aren’t great. They played a number of games without QB Tagovailoa and went on a stretch of 5 straight games scoring 15 points or less prior to his return. Since Tua has re-entered the line up, the Fins have scored 27, 27, 23 and 34 points. Since he returned, Miami ranks 4th in the NFL in offensive success rate over the last 4 games. They have averaged 3.17 points per possession during that stretch which is 2nd in the NFL behind only Detroit over the last 4 weeks. They should have plenty of success vs a New England defense that ranks 20th or lower in total defense, YPP allowed, rush & pass defense. The Pats have allowed less than 20 points only twice in their last 9 games and that was vs Chicago, who ranks dead last in YPP on offense, and vs this Miami team the first time around who was starting Tyler Huntley at QB who just joined the team. Even in that 15-10 Miami win with Huntley still learning the offense, the Fins put up 372 yards. New England’s offense has been much better with Drake Maye at QB instead of Brissett. In Maye’s 5 starts, the Pats have averaged above their season average in YPP in 4 of those games. The average total points in games where Brissett was the start is 35 and total points in games where Maye starts is 44. The weather looks perfect in Miami on Sunday with temps in the 70’s, light winds, and no precipitation. With Miami sitting as a 7 point favorite the implied score of this game is right around 26.5 to 19.5. We like New England to get to at least 20 and Miami may just get into the 30’s here. Over is the call.

#181/182 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER 44.5 Points - Air Force at Nevada, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This O/U number reflects the Air Force team we saw early in the season that struggled to move the football offensively and put points on the board. AF scored 7 or less points in 3 of their first five games and couldn’t get their vaunted running game going. They’ve made a QB change and the offense has taken off the last two weeks against Fresno State and Oregon State. Against Fresno, who ranks 14th in YPP defense, they ran it for 344 total yards at 4.3 yards per carry and put up 38-points. Last week against OSU they amassed 409 total yards and 28-points. This Air Force offense will face limited resistance from a Wolfpack D that is 96th in rushing yards allowed per game and 102nd in yards per rush allowed at 4.7. Nevada should put up points in this game too and they rank 45th in rushing yards per game at 178.5 and yards per rush at 4.8 per carry. Air Force is 89th in rushing yards allowed per game and 101st in yards per rush allowed at 4.7. The Wolfpack have put up 21-points in recent conference games against Boise State, Colorado State and Fresno State who all rank significantly higher than Air Force defensively. These two teams did not meet last season but the two prior they scored 68 and 80-points. This game won’t get to those numbers but it will get over 45-total points.

#144 ASA TOP PLAY ON Old Dominion -2.5 over Marshall, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This is a huge game for ODU who needs to win their last 2 games to get to 6 wins and bowl eligible. The Monarchs are coming off a 35-32 home loss vs James Madison, one of the top teams in the Sun Belt. ODU actually outplayed JMU in the stats averaging 6.3 YPP to 5.7 YPP. A week earlier, ODU lost @ App State 28-20 but outgained the Mountaineers by more than 100 yards but had 4 turnovers. Prior to that the Monarchs were on a roll winning 3 in a row all by 7+ points and despite losing their last 2, they are still playing very well. We could conceivably be looking at a 5 game winning streak for Old Dominion. Marshall did the opposite last week. They beat Coastal Carolina at home but were outgained by more than 1.0 YPP in that win. The Herd scored a TD on a blocked punt and also had a 2 yard TD drive after a Coastal turnover (CC had 3 turnovers). Marshall has very rarely ventured on the road as of late with 5 of their last 7 games coming at home. They’ve only played 2 conference road games so far beating USM, the worst team in the Sun Belt, and losing @ Georgia Southern. The Herd are 5-1 in conference play in 1st place in the Sun Belt East yet are underdogs vs ODU who is 3-3 in conference play and 4-6 overall? It’s the Monarch’s home finale and we like them to win and cover on Saturday keeping their bowl hopes alive.

#141 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi -11.5 over Florida, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Ole Miss is coming off a bye after dominating Georgia 2 weeks ago 28-10. They outgained the Bulldogs in that win by 150 yards and held them to just 59 yards rushing in 1.8 YPC. That a UGA team many still consider among the best few in the country as they’ve already beaten Texas on the road by double digits and beat Tennessee by 2 TD’s last week. The Rebs absolutely dominated that game and with 2 losses, they need to win out to make sure they are included in the College FB playoff. While Ole Miss is rested off a bye, the Florida defense could be in trouble here as they were on the field for 42 minutes and a whopping 92 plays last week in their win over LSU, a game the Tigers outgained the Gators. Now they face an up tempo Rebel offense that ranks 2nd nationally in total offense, 2nd in YPP, and averages 41 PPG. The previous 2 weeks Florida lost by 2 TD’s to UGA and by 32 points vs Texas. Gator true freshman QB Lagway isn’t 100% (hamstring) and will have problem vs a great Ole Miss defense that ranks 6th nationally in YPP allowed and 2nd in rush defense giving up only 79 YPG on the ground. Lagway didn’t have a rushing attempt last week which simply solidifies the fact he’s not 100%. Teams simply can’t run on the Rebels which will put a lot of pressure on Lagway to make plays through the air to stay in this game. He’s been pretty average this year for the most part completing only 58% of his passes with 7 TD’s and 5 picks. The Ole Miss defense is in the top 5 nationally in pressure rate which will make it tough on the young QB, especially if they can’t run the ball which we’ve stated we don’t think they will. Ole Miss is an impressive +3.2 YPP margin vs very good competition (Florida is +0.7 YPP). The Rebels are good enough to win the National Championship this year but they need to win out to have a chance. They’ve already won 3 true road games by 24+ points and we see another one here.

#112 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Browns +3.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re catching Cleveland coming off an embarrassing road performance @ New Orleans, a game they were actually favored and lost 35-14.  That was a bit misleading as the game was tied 14-14 in the 4th quarter.  Despite only scoring 2 TD’s the offensive numbers for the Browns were solid putting up 443 yards on over 6.0 YPP in that loss.  They had opportunities missing 2 FG’s and getting shut out on downs twice inside New Orleans territory.  The defense was embarrassed as the entered last weekend allowing just 328 YPG but gave up 473 yards to New Orleans.  We look for that unit to bounce back strong at home vs their arch rival.  Pittsburgh is in a rough spot coming off a hard fought 18-16 home win over Baltimore pushing the Steelers into 1st place in the AFC North.  They were extremely fortunate in that game as Pitt was outgained by a full 2.0 YPP (6.1 YPP for Baltimore to 4.1 for Pitt) but benefitted from 3 Raven turnovers and 2 missed FG’s.  Off that huge win we would expect a bit of a letdown going on the road on a short week.  The Steelers, in fact, have a 7-14 ATS record under Tomlin the game after beating the Ravens.  On top of that, AFC North underdogs have been money in the bank with a 26-16 ATS record since 2021.  Cleveland showed us just a few weeks ago that can get it done at home as a division dog beating Baltimore 29-24 and outgaining the Ravens as well so it was no fluke.  Believe it or not, Pittsburgh has never won a division road game on Thursday night (short week) going 0-7 SU in that role.  The weather looks dicey on Thursday night with rain/snow mix and strong winds.  That should lead to a lower scoring game making the points (especially above 3) more valuable.  The host has won and covered 5 straight in this rivalry and Pittsburgh has only won once in their last six trips to Cleveland.  This is just a bad spot for Pittsburgh and Cleveland would like nothing more than to knock off their rival at home tonight.

#107 ASA PLAY ON Ohio +2.5 over Toledo, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These teams are battling to get to Detroit for the MAC Championship.  Ohio has the edge now with a 5-1 conference record while Toledo sits at 4-2.  We like the Bobcats to control the line of scrimmage and ground game here which will go a long way on what is supposed to be a rainy and windy night in Toledo.  Ohio is tied for 1st place with Miami Oh and Bowling Green and the Bobcats have the best point differential in the league at +109 in conference games.  Toledo has a point differential of just +15 and is 1 game out of first place.  The Bobcats have the MAC’s #1 defense allowing just 260 YPG and they are allowing only 15 PPG which also ranks 1st.  Ohio is also solid on the other side of the ball ranking 2nd in the MAC in total offense and 1st in rushing offense putting up 215 YPG on the ground.  Toledo is just 8th in the MAC in total offense and 5th in total defense.  The Rockets can’t run the ball at all ranking outside the top 100 in YPG on the ground and YPC.  They are facing an Ohio defense that allows only 3.4 YPC (23rd nationally) and they give up barely 100 YPG rushing.  These 2 MAC foes have played nearly identical strength of schedules this season and Ohio is better in almost every category.  The Bobcats have a +1.1 YPP margin (Toledo is +0.6) and Ohio has a YPC margin of +1.8 (Toledo is +0.0 YPC).  The Rockets do have the edge passing the ball, however with windy weather expected (20+ MPH winds in the forecast as of Tuesday) we’ll take the team that should dominate the ground game.  We’re on the Bobcats plus the points. 

#475/476 ASA PLAY ON Under 41 Points – Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys,  Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Cowboys offense has looked underwhelming all season long and after QB Prescott was injured, they looked even worse last week.  In their 34-6 loss vs Philadelphia the Cowboys put up just 2 FG’s on 148 total yards of offense.  QB Cooper Rush threw for only 45 yards before giving way to 3rd stringer Trey Lance who threw for 21 yards.  They only drove the ball across midfield 2 times during the game and the other time they were in Eagle territory was because Philly fumbled on their own 25 yard line and Dallas recovered.  We don’t expect this offense to do much vs a Houston defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL allowing just 288 YPG and 5th in YPP allowed at 5.2.  The Dallas defense actually played fairly well vs a red hot Eagle offense holding them to 5.4 YPP as Philly entered last week’s game averaging over 6.0 YPP their previous 3 games.  The problem was Dallas turned the ball over a ridiculous 5 times which led to Philadelphia TD drives of 17 and 37 yards and FG drives of 0 and 9 yards.  That’s 20 points given away due to turnovers.  Houston’s offense hasn’t been great this season averaging just 5.1 YPP which is 20th in the NFL.  The Texans have topped 24 points only once in their last 9 games and they are just 2-7-1 to the Over this season.  We think both offenses struggle in this game making the Under our play.

#471 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals +2 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Cincinnati is in must win mode here. With their 4-6 record, the Bengals currently sit in the 9th spot in the AFC playoff race (top 7 teams make it) but a loss here and they only have a 14% chance of making the post-season. A win gives them a 40% chance so this is basically a win at all costs game. They have extra time to get ready after losing @ Baltimore 35-34 last Thursday. The Bengals are 3-2 on the road and their 2 losses away from home came by a single point vs Baltimore & KC, arguably the 2 best or 2 of the 3 best teams in the NFL. Cincy led both of those games in the 4th quarter and had their chances to win in both. They’ve been competitive in every loss with the exception of Philadelphia with 5 of their 6 losses coming by a combined 16 points. A few breaks here and there and this team could have a much better record. The Chargers are sitting with a 6-3 record but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL to date (30th ranked SOS so far). Their wins have come vs Carolina, Las Vegas, Tennessee, Cleveland, New Orleans and Denver, not a single team in that group currently above .500. All of those teams have offenses that rank in the bottom half of the NFL and 5 of those 6 rank 22nd or lower in scoring. Now they face a Cincinnati team that can put points on the board (6th in scoring) and is rolling on offense scoring 75 points the last 2 weeks. Despite playing the tougher schedule and having the worse record, the Bengals have a better YPP differential. Joe Burrow is 15-6 ATS in his career as an underdog and he has been fantastic this season leading NFL in passing yards to go along with 24 TD’s (1st in the league) and just 4 picks. He has torched zone defenses in his career and the Chargers play a top 5 rate of zone defense. He also gets WR Higgins back this week so this offense should be full strength. LA doesn’t have much of a home field advantage and we like the Bengals to win this game outright.

#464 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +6 over Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans are 1-8 ATS this season and because of that we’re getting some solid value with this number. Tennessee has actually been favored in each of their last 3 homes games vs New England, Indy, and Green Bay believe it or not. They were just +8 on the road @ the LA Chargers which would make LA around a 2 point favorite @ Tennessee. They were +10 @ Buffalo which would make the Bills around -4 if played at Tennessee. You get the point they are now getting nearly a full TD from a Minnesota team that is trending down according to our power ratings. After winning their first 5 games, the Vikings are just 2-2 their last 4 with an 8 point home win over Indy and a 5 point road win last week vs a Jacksonville team that was without QB Lawrence. The Minnesota offense has taken a big step back after averaging 29 PPG over their first 4, they have been held to 23 or less in 4 of their last 5 games and they are averaging 21 PPG during that stretch. QB Sam Darnold has come back to earth as well after a hot start with 4 of his QBR games coming in the last 5 contests. The Vikes are facing a very good Tennessee defense that ranks #1 in the NFL in pass defense, #2 in total defense, and #3 in YPP allowed. We look for Minnesota’s offense to continue their struggles. The Titans lost @ LA Chargers last week 27-17 but outgained LA on a YPP basis. They also rushed for 6.3 YPC vs a Charger defense that came into last week’s game allowing 4.7 YPC. The Titans actually have a dead even YPP differential which would normally equate to a much better overall record as this team has been unlucky. Tennessee looks pretty healthy right now and they are happy to be home playing just their 2nd home game since October 13th. A low scoring game is expected with this total currently sitting in the high 30’s so getting a full 6 points is even more valuable. We like Tennessee to keep this close and have a shot at the upset.

#453 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Browns +1 or Pick'em over New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Good spot for the Browns coming off a bye facing a Saints team that had a division game last week vs the Falcons. New Orleans ended their 7 game losing streak and won the game 20-17 but they were outgained by more than 100 yards. New Orleans QB Carr was very comfortable (0 sacks for Atlanta) vs a Falcon defense that can’t put any pressure on the QB. They rank dead last in pressure rate and sack percentage averaging less than 1 sack per game. Now Carr, whose splits are much worse vs pressure as to be expected, faces a rested Cleveland defense that ranks in the top 5 in sack percentage. It should be a different story for the Saints offense this week after they were only able to put up 20 points vs basically no pressure last Sunday. Off the bye we’re hearing Cleveland is as healthy as they’ve been all season. We expect the Browns to have some offensive success here vs a banged up New Orleans defense that ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.0 YPP. Cleveland beat Baltimore 2 weeks and ago and they’ve actually outgained 2 of their last 3 opponents with QB Winston in the line up. Their offense has averaged 343 YPG of the last 3 (up 75 yards from season total) and they are up +0.4 YPP as well over their last 3. Winston has brought some life to this offense and he should have some extra incentive here after the Saints basically cut him loose in the off-season. New Orleans fired their head coach prior to last week’s game and that often gives a team the 1 game jump. We wouldn’t even call it that last weekend as the Saints were outplayed but came away with a tight win. They come back to earth Sunday and we like the Browns to win this game.

#363/364 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Over 57.5 Points - Kansas vs BYU, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET - We were on Kansas last week and mentioned they are playing very well right now especially on offense. They proceeded to put up 45 points on 532 yards vs a solid ISU defense. They’ve really kicked it in gear on that side of the ball averaging 36 PPG over their last 4 games. Their lowest point total during that stretch was 27 vs KSU but had over 400 yards of offense so that point total should have been higher. In their last 4 games KU has averaged 452 YPG on 7.2 YPP. Impressive to say the least. The problem with the Jayhawks is their defense. Last week they led big vs ISU (38-13 in the 3rd quarter) but the KU defense let the Cyclones score 3 TD’s in the final 20:00 minutes of game time. ISU averaged over 7.0 YPP in the game. KU’s defense has allowed at least 29 points in 5 of their last 6 games with the only exception being Houston who ranks 127th in total offense. BYU’s offense wasn’t great last week vs a solid Utah defense (22 points) but prior to that they had scored 34 or more points in 6 consecutive games. In last week’s game they were playing a Utah offense that can’t score and was down to their 3rd string QB so BYU wasn’t pushed to score a bunch of points (BYU won 22-21). The Cougars average 34 PPG on the season ranking them in the top 30 nationally. These teams have combined to go 12-6 to the Over this year with BYU games reaching at least 60 points in 4 of their last 5 and KU games reaching at least 60 points in 4 of their last 6 games. Last year they met in Kansas and put up 65 total points with the total set at 56.5. Weather looks perfect in Provo on Saturday night with temps in the mid 30’s but almost no wind. This one is a shootout and we like the Over.

#382 ASA TOP PLAY ON South Carolina -13 over Missouri, Saturday at 4:15 PM ET - South Carolina is playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now with 3 straight wins all by at least 21 points. Two weeks ago at home they rolled Texas A&M 44-20 putting up 530 yards on one of the better defenses in the country. Last week was a prime letdown spot for the Gamecocks traveling to Vandy off their big A&M win. SC dominated again 28-7 outgaining the Commodores by 175 yards. That’s a Vandy team that beat Bama, nearly beat Texas (lost by 3), and took this Missouri team to OT on the road before losing by 3. On top of that, South Carolina could easily have wins over LSU (lost by 3 on a late LSU TD) and Alabama (lost by 2 @ Bama but outgained the Tide). The only team that really outplayed the Gamecocks was Ole Miss who just beat Georgia by 18 points. Missouri is the opposite situation. They have a good record (7-2) but could easily have a few more losses. They’ve had a few things go their way beating Auburn late by 4, beating Vandy in OT, and beating a way down Oklahoma team last week on a fumble return TD with 30 seconds left in the game. Their offense has really struggled (97th in YPP) and will most likely be without starting QB Cook who has a bad ankle and a hand injury. Even if he plays he’s not at 100%. His back up Pyne is not good to say the least. Facing one of the best defensive teams in the nation will make it really tough on this already below average offense. SC’s defense has allowed less than 10 points in FIVE games already this season and we wouldn’t be surprised if they do the same to Mizzou here. Comparable opponents results aren’t even close. SC beat A&M by 24, Missouri lost to A&M by 31. SC beat Vandy by 21 on the road and Mizzou topped Vandy in OT by 3 at home. SC beat Oklahoma by 29 on the road and Missouri just beat OU by 7 at home on a fumble recovery as mentioned above. SC lost @ Bama by 2, Missouri last at Bama by 34. You get the point. This one should be an easy win at home for the Gamecocks.

#397 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +2.5 over Illinois, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - We think MSU is the better team despite records (Illinois is 6-3 & MSU is 4-5) so we’ll grab the points.  MSU has a better YPP margin (+0.1 to -0.1) and YPG margin (+22 to -10) despite playing the tougher schedule (12th SOS for MSU & 45th for Illinois).  Sparty is 4-5 on the season and they have plenty of motivation needing to win 2 of their last 3 games to be bowl eligible.  3 of their 5 losses have come vs OSU, Oregon, and Indiana who have a combined record of 28-1.  Both are coming off a bye week but we give MSU the advantage in that spot giving the coaching edge to the Spartans Jonathan Smith.  When Michigan State came off their first bye week back in early October, they rolled over a good Iowa team 32-20 and outgained them by almost 200 yards.  When Illinois came off their first bye week in early October, they needed OT at home to get by a terrible Purdue team.  The Illini have fallen off drastically since their 4-0 start going 2-3 their last 5 games and lucky to have those 2 wins to be honest.  They beat an average Michigan team at home but needed 3 Wolverine turnovers (0 for Illinois) to do so as they were outplayed in the stat sheet in that game.  They also nearly lost to Purdue, as we mentioned above, winning 50-49 in OT at HOME.  The Boilers actually ran 17 fewer offensive snaps in that game but outgained the Illini on a YPP basis.  That’s the same Purdue team that has already lost 6 games this season by 17 points or more.  We like the Spartans to win this one so we’ll take the points.

#317/318 ASA PLAY ON Over 46.5 Points – Wyoming vs Colorado State, Friday at 8 PM ET - The season long stats for Wyoming’s offense aren’t impressive but you can throw out the first month of the season because this team is moving the ball and putting points on the board as of late. The Cowboys have scored at least 24 points in 4 of their last 5 games and they are averaging 28 PPG during that 5 game stretch. That success should continue vs a CSU defense that ranks 104th in total defense. We expect the Rams to also put up solid offensive numbers vs a Wyoming defense that also ranks outside the top 100 (115th) in total defense this season. CSU’s offense has scored at least 31 points in 3 of their last 5 games and they’ve reached at least 21 points in 6 of their last 8 games, most of those vs teams with better defenses than this Wyoming squad. CSU has reached at least 55 total points in 3 of their last 5 games and Wyoming games have gotten to at least 50 points in 4 of their last 5. With 2 defenses ranked outside the top 100 and good weather on tap (temps in the 30’s but almost no wind) these teams should fare well offensively. Both are easily capable of topping 21 points which should get us to this Over.

ASA play on Washington Commanders +4 at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Commanders here as they are coming off a loss, while the Eagles are coming off a big rivalry win in Dallas. Even though the Cowboys are down this season, that is still one of, if not the biggest game on Philly schedule. There is no shame in the Commanders loss to the red hot Steelers who have now won 4 straight games. Washington has the 6th best yards per play differential in the NFL at +0.5. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in YPPD at +0.9. Last year in the two meetings the Eagles won by 3 in OT and by 7-points in Washington. The combined Total Yards produced by the Eagles was 789 yards, the Commanders put up 837 yards. In terms of yards per play, the Eagles averaged 6.0YPP, the Commanders averaged 5.9YPP.  These two teams rate near even when it comes to overall DVOA statistics, so given the circumstances we will grab whatever points are available with the underdog. Washington is 5-1-2 ATS the last eight meetings with Philadelphia.

#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio -10 over Eastern Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 have similar records (Ohio 6-3 & EMU 5-4) but the key stats aren’t even close. EMU is extremely fortunate to have a winning record right now. They could easily be sitting with 2 or 3 wins on the season rather than 5. The Eagles have a negative point differential in conference play and on the season this team has a YPP margin of -1.3, a YPR margin of -1.1, and a yards per pass attempt margin of -1.8. Those are the stats of a team that is well below .500. They’ve been fortunate in the turnover category ranking in the top 25 nationally in turnover margin. Ohio is 4-1 in MAC play with a point differential of +84 which is the best in conference play. They’ve allowed the least points in conference play (61) while scoring the 2nd most in MAC games (165). The Bobcats are 4-0 at home winning by an average of +18 PPG. When comparing the key stats we spoke about above for EMU, the Bobcats are +1.0 YPP, +1.8 YPR, and +0.4 yards per pass attempt. They are rolling right now as well, winning 4 of their last 5 game with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Miami OH who is playing as well as anyone in the MAC right now. 3 of Ohio’s 4 wins during that stretch have come by at least 20 points and their 1 close win they led CMU 24-0 in the 3rd quarter and took their foot off the gas and won 27-25. They learned from that mistake and have stayed aggressive with a lead winning their last 2 games by a combined score of 88-16. EMU has played only 2 road games in conference play this year vs Kent and Akron, the 2 worst teams in the MAC, who have a combined record of 2-16. They beat Kent, who is 0-9 on the season, but lost @ Akron. Now they face one of the top teams in the MAC and we expect Ohio to control this game from start to finish. Lay it.

#286 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams -2.5 over Miami Dolphins, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Rough spot for the Fins after nearly upsetting Buffalo on the road last week, they take to the air again in a cross country trip to LA. This is Miami’s 4th road game in their last 5 contests. They did get QB Tagovailoa back in the line up 2 games ago but they lost both of those contests and now might be without top WR Hill on Monday due to a wrist injury. Miami is just 2-6 with a -63 point differential which is the 6th worst in the NFL. And that’s despite playing the 24th most difficult strength of schedule to date. Defensively the Dolphins have solid overall numbers but they are trending down as of late allowing 58 points the last 2 weeks on 5.9 YPP in losses to Arizona & Buffalo. The Rams offense is back at full strength with WR’s Cupp and Nacua back in the line up together. With those 2 threats back on the field, LA has scored 56 points the last 2 weeks and veteran QB Stafford has thrown for almost 600 yards and 6 TD’s. The Rams sit at 4-4 and they’ve played the 3rd most difficult strength of schedule which is a big difference when comparing that to Miami. We’re getting a coaching edge here as well with McVay over McDaniel. The Rams are in the thick of the playoff race in the NFC while the Fins have pretty much played themselves out of it in the AFC. Miami has covered just once the last 8 times they’ve been tabbed an underdog and we think they add another ATS “L” to the ledger here. Lay the small number and take the Rams.

#281/282 ASA PLAY ON OVER 46 Points - New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Jets have two trends with their team right now with the offense improving and the defense sliding in the opposite direction. NY is averaging 5.1 Yards Per Play on the season and 5.7YPP in their most recent three games. Defensively they allow 4.6YPP overall, 4.8YPP in their last three games. New York allowed 17 or less points in 3 of their first four games but have allowed 23 or more in 4 of their last five games. In a recent game against the Steelers, who have similar offensive numbers compared to this Cardinals team the Jet’s D allowed 37 points and over 400-yards of offense. Offensively the Jets have explosive weapons at every position, and they played one of their best games last game versus a Texans defense that is significantly better than this Arizona unit. The Cardinals are allowing the 11th most Yards Per Play at 5.6, they rank 22nd in rushing YPG allowed and 24th in passing YPG given up. Arizona’s defense has held three pedestrian offenses (Bears, Chargers and Rams-injured) to 9, 15 and 10-points. Against the good offenses they’ve faced they have given up 34, 20, 42, 23, 34 and 27-points. The Cardinals are going to put up points in this game too. Arizona is 9th in Yards Per Play at 6.1 and has a potent rushing attack that is top 10 in the league. Arizona has scored 24+ points in 3 of their last five games with 28 and 29 in their last two.

#267/268 ASA PLAY ON Over 44.5 Points – Washington Commanders vs Pittsburgh Steelers at 1 PM ET - Light showers expected in DC on Sunday but light winds so scoring shouldn’t be affected. Pitt’s offense has been much better since Russell Wilson took over at QB. In his 2 games under center the Steelers put up 6.2 YPP vs Jets and 6.8 YPP vs Giants. They are averaging 31.5 PPG with Wilson compared to 20.5 PPG when Fields was the starter. They should have plenty of success vs a Washington defense that ranks 24th in YPP allowed and struggles to stop the run (29th in rush defense & 31st in YPC allowed). That plays right into Pittsburgh’s hands as they run the ball well which will open up the play action for Wilson who is averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt. Washington’s offense is rolling but has blown a lot of redzone opportunities the last few weeks in games they should have scored much more than they did. They averaged 6.7 YPP and 6.0 YPP the last 2 and scored 45 points in those 2 games. The total yardage they gained in those 2 games (over 800 yards) would normally produce 56 points for an average NFL yards per point team. They face a Pittsburgh offense that has solid numbers (13th in YPP allowed) but those numbers look like they could be misleading. That’s because they haven’t played an offense since week 1 that currently ranked in the top 15 in YPP and the average of the offenses they’ve faced rank 21st in YPP. Now they face a Commander offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL putting up 6.4 YPP. The Commanders have scored on a league-high 60.7% of their drives. The next closest team (Baltimore) is at 51.0%. The Steelers have scored on 45.9% of their possessions, which is sixth in the league. Everything here points to a high scoring game and this total is set too low. Over is the call.

#273 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco 49ers -6.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The 49ers are a disappointing 4-4 SU on the season but have dealt with numerous injuries to key personnel. They are coming off a bye-week and are getting healthy for the final stretch of the regular season. There are even rumors RB McCaffrey may return for this game. Either way, we like the Niners to roll here. Despite a .500 record the 49ers are 5th in the current DVOA rankings, 7th in offense and 5th in defense. San Francisco averages 6.5 Yards Per Play (2nd) and gives up just 5.3YPP (12th). SF is a modest 15-13 ATS as a road chalk since 2020 but they’ve won those games by an average of +7.7ppg. On that note, the Bucs are 3-6 ATS their last nine as a home dog with a negative differential of minus -1.4ppg. As for Tampa Bay, they are in a horrible scheduling situation having just played in Kansas City in a big game on Monday Night Football. TB has not had a bye this season and are dealing with a depleted roster with their two best WR’s on the sideline. Tampa Bay is 30th in the NFL in Yards Per Game allowed and 26th in YPP given up at 6.0. They give up the 19th most rushing YPG and 30th most passing YPG. Offensively the Bucs will want to run the football, but the 49ers allow 105 rushing yards per game (6th) and just 4.3 yards per attempt (9th). Tampa Bay has already been beaten 3 times on this field this season and we expect the Niners to hand them #4.