#248 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -2 over Texas A&M, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This game opened A&M favored and has flipped to OSU a small favorite. We agree with the move and still feel there is some value on the Cowboys. A&M has been decimated through opt outs, portal, and in the coaching staff. More than half the Aggies starters won’t play in this game and we’re hearing it could be more as we approach game time. That includes their top 2 QB’s who won’t play in this game leaving 3rd stringer Henderson to start under center. He’s had some experience late in the season in A&M’s last 3 games but had almost zero snaps in his previous 2 seasons at Fresno State. Head coach Jimbo Fisher was fired and OC Petrino left for Arkansas. The Aggies DC Robinson has been in charge of bowl prep and he’s leaving to be the DC at Syracuse as soon as this game is finished. Way too much upheaval for this Texas A&M team to think they’ll be fully focused on this one (players and coaches). OSU is coming off a blowout loss in the Big 12 Championship vs Texas and they lost their bowl game last year so this team is motivated to win. A win would also give them 10 wins for the 8th time in head coach Gundy’s tenure. Speaking of Gundy, he is a veteran to the bowl scene appearing in 16 previous bowl games and has been very successful with an 11-5 SU record. They have almost nobody in the portal of significance and the Cowboys are all in here. A&M just 3-3 their last 3 games and their wins were over Abilene Christian (FCS), Miss State (non bowl team), and South Carolina (non bowl team). In fact, the Aggies beat ONE bowl team all season and that was Auburn way back in September and that was when A&M had everyone on board. Okie State beat solid bowl teams Oklahoma, Kansas State, Kansas, and WVU this season and as we mentioned they will be the motivated team here. Take the Cowboys on Wednesday.

#241 ASA PLAY ON 8* Virginia Tech -10.5 over Tulane, Wednesday at 2 PM ET - One team in this game has a ton of distractions leading up to this game (Tulane) and the other has almost none (Va Tech). Tulane’s head coach Willie Fritz has already taken the head job at Houston and won’t be on the sidelines for this game. He is taking his OC, DC, WR coach, and DL coach with him to Houston. Those assistants will coach in this game but we can’t imagine this staff is fully invested at this point. On top of that, the Green Wave will be without their starting QB Pratt, their top 3 WR’s, starting TE, along with 5 or 6 defensive starters. This team was trending down the last month and a half or so even when they were at full strength. 3 of their final 5 wins were by 3 points or less with 2 of those wins coming vs non bowl teams Tulsa and ECU. In their regular season finale they were outgained by UTSA but benefitted from 5 turnovers to pick up a win. In the AAC Championship game, a home game for Tulane, they were dominated by SMU who finished the game with a -2 turnover margin AND was without their starting QB yet still won by double digits. Va Tech has very few opt outs, a young coach in his 2nd year with the program, and they are on the rise. This is a very important game for the Hokies who were 3-8 last year in HC Pry’s first year (didn’t make a bowl game) and they’ve improved to 6-6 this year and are shooting for a winning record. The Hokies have almost every one of their key players playing in this bowl game. Virginia Tech played the tougher schedule compared to Tulane but the key numbers (YPG & YPP differential) were almost dead even. And that was with the Green Wave at full strength which we’ve stated they won’t be for this bowl game. The Hokies played 8 bowl teams this year and outgained those teams by an average of +40 YPG. Their offense was really clicking down the stretch with the exception of their game vs Louisville who has a top 15 defense. In their final 5 games (minus the Louisville game) the Hokies averaged 40 PPG. This one is in Annapolis, Maryland which is a 4 hour & 30 minute drive from Blacksburg so Virginia Tech so we look for a Hokie home crowd here. Lay it.

#481/482 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 47 Points - Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - These are two of the best overall defenses in the NFL ranking 1st and 4th in EPA and DVOA. San Francisco gives up 16.7PPG and 1-point scored for every 18.6 yards gained which rank 2nd and 1st in the NFL. Baltimore allows 16.1PPG and has a Yards Per Point defense of 17.9YPPT which rank 1st and 2nd respectively. Offensively both teams have some impressive overall statistics as each rank top 5 in both yards per play and total yards per game gained and scoring. But a closer look tells us that each team's offensive numbers may be a bit misleading based on the defenses they’ve faced. In San Francisco’s last six games they have not faced a defense ranked higher than 20th in EPA. In Baltimore’s last six games they have faced one defense ranked 19th or better in EPA. Baltimore is the 27th slowest paced team in the NFL at 1-play run every 29.6 seconds. The Niners are the slowest team in the league at 31.3 seconds per play. Baltimore’s best shot to beat this 49ers defense, which is soft in the interior, is by running the football. San Francisco is 19th in yards per rush allowed. The Ravens run the football more than anyone in the league at 32.7 rushing attempts per game and will be happy to grind away with the running game and keep the 49ers offense on the sidelines. San Francisco is 6th in rushing attempts per game and will also focus on their rushing attack against a Ravens D that allows 4.3YPR. With a heavy volume of tickets and money on the Over by public bettors we will gladly go opposite and be the Under here.

#457/458 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 45 Points – Indianapolis vs Atlanta, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Atlanta is off terrible offensive showing last week losing 9-7 which is giving us some value on this total. Last week’s game @ Carolina was in a monsoon with rain and wind make it very tough on the offenses. On top of that, Carolina can’t score so the Falcons weren’t pressed to keep up so to speak on the scoreboard. The Falcons had a lead the vast majority of the game so they stuck to a conservative game plan (12 completed passes & 31 rush attempts). Atlanta is making a switch at QB going back to Heinecke which many times gives the offense a 1 game boost. In the 2 games he started this season the Falcons averaged 25.5 PPG and those games totaled 59 and 51 points. They have been terrible on offense on the road averaging 13 PPG but at home they are averaging almost 24 PPG. The Colts have been an Over team all season long. They have gone over the total 10 times this year which is the most in the NFL. Their defense is a liability ranking 8th in scoring allowing 24.5 PPG (27th in the NFL). On the other side of the ball Indy is a top 10 scoring offense and they’ve put up at least 27 points in 6 of their last 8 games. They are also a very fast paced team ranking 2nd in the NFL in seconds per play. We have perfect conditions inside in Atlanta and we look for both offenses to thrive on Sunday. Over is the play.

#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 40 Points - Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This game has huge playoff implications for both teams as they battle for Wild Card positioning. Games such as these have trended to the Over this season as both team will empty their playbooks for a win. Let’s set the record straight regarding the Browns defense this season. They have been fantastic at home allowing 13.1PPG on their home field. When they are away from home they give up nearly 31PPG. Points allowed in their five road games are 36, 29, 42, 26, 38 and 26. All 6 of their road games have gone Over the total and those games averaged 55 total points per game. In the two most recent starts by QB Flacco for Cleveland they have put up 31-points against a solid Jags D and 20 versus the Bears last week. Against Chicago the Browns amassed 385-total yards on 6.1YPP. The Browns have thrown in 44.7 times per game in their last three games compared to the 37.5 they average on the season. Going up against an average Texans defense we expect the Browns to put up points in this one. Houston is middle of the pack defensively this season and they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. They rank 16th in total YPG allowed, 19th in Yards Per Play allowed and give up the 25th most passing yards per game. Houston will also score here too with an offense that is 10th in total YPG and 7th in Yards Per Play. The Texans put up over 21PPG on the season and have scored 24.7PPG at home which is 9th highest in the league. Even with backup QB Keenum in the game we like the Texans to score 17 or more points and that’s all we’ll need to cash this Over.

#234 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -8.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - We give SJSU the situational edge here as they have already played in Hawaii on this field this season rolling over the Rainbows 35-0. That means we expect this to be a business trip for the Spartans rather than a potential vacation. Coastal, on the other hand, is making their first trip to the islands so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if this is more of a “getaway” type situation for the Chanticleers. San Jose State starting QB Cordiero should have plenty of motivation as well returning to his home state where he played HS football and was the starting QB for Hawaii before transferring. These 2 teams are both 7-5 entering this bowl game but SJSU played the tougher schedule with all 5 losses coming vs bowl teams including Pac 12 opponents USC and Oregon State. Down the stretch the Spartans were fantastic winning 6 straight games with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. Their only tight games was in the regular season finale where they beat UNLV on the road 37-31, a Rebel team that played in the MWC Championship game. Despite the fairly close final score, San Jose led that game by 20 points with just over 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. Coastal Carolina has had many more opt outs in this game (19 in the transfer portal one of the highest of any bowl team) including starting QB McCall and his backup Guest. 3rd stringer Vasko, a redshirt freshman, did start their final 3 of their final 4 games when the first 2 QB’s were injured but he’s still very inexperienced compared to SJSU starter Cordiero who has thrown for 12,000 career yards and 87 TD’s. The Spartans seem to be highly motivated to get this win after finishing in a 3 way tie for the Mountain West title but were left out of the Championship game which were determined by computer rankings. “We’re going into this game and we want to win,” senior safety Tre Jenkins said. “Not even win close. We want to dominate. Especially because we just got a bad taste in our mouth not going to the (Mountain West Championship).” This SJSU offense averaged 39 PPG over their last 6 and we think they roll over a decimated Coastal Carolina team that had to make the long trip from Myrtle Beach SC to the islands.

#232 ASA PLAY ON 8* Northwestern +6.5 over Utah, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Is Utah really excited to be playing in the Las Vegas Bowl after spending the last 2 seasons in Pasadena competing in the Rose Bowl? We would highly doubt it. This team has much higher goals this season as they expected to compete for the Pac 12 title. The lack of excitement could be attributed to the Utes large number of players in the portal (14). The Utah coach staff had to convince QB Barnes (who is already in the portal) to stay and play in this game or they were going to have to start their 4th string QB who has attempted 10 passes in his career. Barnes was originally the 3rd string QB behind Cam Rising and Nate Johnson who were both injured this season. A weird, and not ideal, situation for the Utes having their QB having to be convinced to play in the bowl but leaving for another school as soon as it’s over. They will also be missing top WR Vele, the only player with over 300 yards receiving, along with a number of key defensive players including both starting safeties. Northwestern is thrilled to be in a bowl after finishing 1-11 last season, losing their head coach Fitzgerald right before this season, and being left for dead by most. They rallied for a 7-5 season under interim head coach Braun who has been given the head coaching job and the players love him. The Cats have almost no opt outs and played very well down the stretch winning 4 of their final 5 games with their only loss coming by 3 points vs Iowa the Big 10 West champ. All 4 of those wins at the end of the season came vs bowl teams. On the other hand, Utah lost 3 of their final 5 games and struggled to beat a Colorado team that had nothing to play for in the season finale with the Utes winning by only 6 points as 22 point favorites. That lackluster effort in their home finale might be a peak into the lack of motivation for this team late in the season. The NW offense received a big boost late in the season when starting QB Bryant returned from injury (was injured in late September) and let the Wildcats to 3 straight wins while completing over 67% of his passes in those 3 games. We like NW to have a shot at the upset here and expect a close game either way. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 37.5 Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:30 PM ET - Both teams are fighting for their Wildcard Playoff lives which is going to lead to plenty of points in this storied rivalry. We are seeing an uptick of scoring in the NFL overall and more importantly in games like this one with playoff implications. These same teams squared off on Nov 26th in Cincy which resulted in a 16-10 Steelers win. Pittsburgh should have scored more than the 16-points as they amassed over 420 total yards on 6.2YPP. The Steelers settled for three field goals of 41 or less yards and the Bengals kicked a 47-yarder. Missed opportunities by both teams was the story of this game as the Steelers fumbled at the Bengals 15-yard line, Cincy threw an INT at the Steelers 18. It was the Bengals QB Browning’s first start and he didn’t play well with 227-passing yards and that INT. He’s obviously been much better in his last three games going 79/103 for 953 total yards with 5 TD’s to 2 INT’s. The Steelers will start Mason Rudolph at QB who has NFL starting experience and shouldn’t be a drop off from either Pickett or Trubisky. He’ll face a Bengals defense that is one of the worst units in the league. Cincy gives up 22.2PPG, 6.0YPP and 4.7 yards per rush on the season. In their last two road games they’ve allowed over 30+ points in each. This isn’t the Steel Curtain the Bengals will face on Saturday either. Pittsburgh is 20th or worse in: yards allowed per game, yards per play, rushing yards and passing yards. In their last three games the Steelers have allowed 21 or more points to the Cardinal, Patriots and Colts. The Bengals average 5.5YPP offensively and score 21.9PPG despite injuries/lost games with QB Burrows. Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have totaled 43 or more points. Bet the Over here.

#226 ASA PLAY ON 8* Air Force +2 over James Madison, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We know Air Force is 100% all in today to play in the Armed Forces Bowl. We’re not so sure about James Madison. While JMU is playing in their first bowl game ever, they have a ton of distractions leading into this one. Their head coach Cignetti took the head coaching job at Indiana and won’t be around for this one. Not only that, Cignetti took a large portion of his staff with him and JMU had to turn to a number of temporary coaches simply to get them through their bowl practices. Nearly half (10) of the Dukes starters have also entered the transfer portal including QB McCloud and while many (including McCloud) are still planning on playing in this game, it will be a distraction at the very least. JMU has a very good run defense, one of the best in the nation statistically, however they’ve never faced an offense like Air Force will present. They’ve been trying to get up to speed on practice to defend the option type attack with a makeshift coaching staff as we suggested. That’s really tough to do. Air Force began the season with a perfect 8-0 record before playing poorly down the stretch losing 4 straight games. Injuries were a key part in their downfall, including starting QB Larrier who was on the shelf for 3 of those 4 losses. With a full month off since their regular season finale, the Falcons are as healthy as they have been since October including Larrier who is slated to start this game at QB. Let’s not forget when this AF team was healthy, they were an unbeaten team that has the 2nd best rushing attack in the country (276 YPG) and a defense that ranked in the top 15 in both total defense and YPP allowed. We’ll side with the small dog with a veteran coach (Troy Calhoun has coached in 12 bowl games) that has won 4 straight bowl games. Air Force gets the win on Saturday.

#228 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State Pick -120 over Georgia State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This Georgia State team had much higher aspirations this seasons as they expected to contend and possibly win the Sun Belt Conference. After winning 6 of their first 7 games, the Panthers fell off a cliff and lost 5 straight to end the season and they are now sitting in a lower tier bowl they didn’t anticipate being in. They were outgained in each of their last 5 games by a total of nearly 900 yards and it looks like this team has packed it in. Now they travel west to Boise and where the windchill is expected to be in the 20’s at game time. Not ideal for a warm weather team. GSU lost a ton of production to the transfer portal as well with their top RB (over 1,300 yards) and top WR (over 800 yards) already out the door. Utah State has the advantage of playing on the blue field in Boise every other season as both are members of the Mountain West Conference. This line is a bit light in our opinion (we have USU as a 3 point chalk) which might be due to the fact that the Aggies top 2 QB’s are injured and won’t play in this game. However, their starter in this game will be senior Levi Williams who is very experienced and set to be a Navy SEAL when this game comes to an end. Williams led USU to a win in their regular season finale vs New Mexico, scoring 5 TD’s (2 passing and 3 rushing) in a game they had to win to become bowl eligible. Prior to coming to Utah State, Williams was the starting QB at Wyoming where he was 2-0 in bowl games including playing at this venue (Idaho Potato Bowl) 2 years ago accounting for 5 TD’s and 327 yards of total offense in that win. He should be more than comfortable in this spot. These 2 teams played a very similar strength of schedule this season (79th and 84th SOS per Sagarin) yet Utah State had much better numbers with a YPG differential of +30 (GSU was -58 YPG) and a YPP differential of +0.7 (GSU was -0.9). After winning their previous 2 bowl games, Utah State was embarrassed in their bowl game last year losing 38-10 vs Memphis and they’ve put a heavy emphasis on winning this one. We like Utah State here.

#219 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Florida -4.5 over Georgia Tech, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - Both teams are 6-6 on the season but we feel this UCF team is undervalued and better than their record. Half of their losses this season came with starting QB Plumlee out with an injury. They were just 1-3 SU when Plumlee was sidelined and the only win during that stretch was vs an FCS team. The Knights outgained their opponents by +100 YPG on the season and even vs bowl teams they were +31 YPG. That was mainly in a very tough Big 12 Conference. Georgia Tech played in the weaker ACC and was outgained on the season. UCF had the stronger strength of schedule and had the much better key numbers overall with a +85 point differential (GT was +8), a +100 YPG differential (GT was -10) and a +1.3 YPP differential (GT was dead even). And those numbers included the games that Plumlee was on the shelf or we’d be looking at an even more lopsided situation in the stats. We’re also getting a massive strength vs weakness situation in this game in favor of the Golden Knights. They run the ball for an average of 233 YPG (4th in the nation) on 5.7 YPC (5th in the nation). Plumlee being healthy at QB is a huge part of that success. They are facing a Tech defense that allows 225 YPG rushing (131st out of 133 teams) on 5.4 YPG (130th). This game is also being played in Tampa, Florida which obviously benefits UCF. The opt outs and portals are fairly minimal on each side however 2 of the bigger transfers are on the Georgia Tech defense with their top CB and top DE out. We like UCF to win this one by at least a TD.

#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -4 over New Orleans Saints, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Both teams enter this game with 7-7 records but we feel the Saints are overvalued at this point in the season. They are coming of 2 straight wins which were impressive on the scoreboard, however those wins were vs Carolina and NY Giants. Their win over the Panthers was very deceiving as New Orleans was outgained in that game (at home) by 100 yards but had a defensive TD. On top of that they had 2 TD drives of 44 yards or less after Carolina turnovers. Last Sunday’s win over NYG was a bit more impressive however they caught the G-Men on a short week after beating GB on Monday night. The Saints wins this year have come vs Carolina (twice), New England, NY Giants, Chicago (with backup QB), Tennessee and Indy. The Colts are the only team in that group currently with a winning record. The Rams are surging winning 4 of their last 5 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Baltimore in OT. They’ve also covered 4 straight. Speaking of covering, Rams HC McVay has been great late in the season with an ATSU record of 17-4-1 his last 22 December games including 10-1-1 ATS at home in December. The LA offense has been clicking on all cylinders as of late averaging 33 PPG, 425 YPG and more than 6.0 YPP over their last 4 games. Not only that, 2 of those games came vs Cleveland and Baltimore, who rank 1st and 2nd in the NFL in total defense. The New Orleans defense looked good at home the past 2 weeks vs terrible offenses (NYG & Carolina) but prior to that they had allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their previous 6 games. Prior to their 2 wins the last 2 weeks vs poor competition, the Saints had lost 5 of their previous 7 games with all of those losses coming by at least 5 points. New Orleans is just 6-14-1 ATS their last 21 games following a win and we like the Rams to win this one by a TD or more. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 45 Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 PM ET - The injury/illness status of Eagles QB Hurts is the big news here as he is currently listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. The Seahawks have their own QB injury to worry about as Geno Smith has a pulled groin and may not play tonight either. That means it could be a showdown between backups Marcus Mariota for Philly and Drew Lock for the Seahawks. We are still betting Over the total with the reserve QB’s. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive numbers when it comes to DVOA ratings. Defensively both are in the bottom third of the NFL with the Eagles ranking 22nd while the Seahawks are 24th. Offensively though both ae in the top half of the league with Seattle 12th and Philly 8th. In their last three games the Eagles defense has been exposed allowing 33+ points in three straight and 4 of their last six games. Seattle hasn’t been any better, allowing 28, 41 and 31-points in their last three games. Both teams give up 5.7 yards per play (24th) and over 350YPG. Seattle allows 24.5PPG which ranks 25th in the NFL while the Eagles allow 24.7PPG (28th). We are expecting both teams to get into the mid-20’s here. Bet Over!

#202 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Old Dominion -3 over Western Kentucky, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - This WKY beat only 1 bowl team all season long (South Florida) and now they’ve been decimated by the transfer portal including nearly their entire starting offensive line opting to move on. There is now talk that starting QB Reed may also sit this game out but nothing definitive on that yet. If it happens this line will go up so play it now at -2.5 (line as of Friday). Even when they had their entire team in tact, the Hilltoppers were 1-7 SU vs bowl teams, were outscored by an average of 12 PPG in those games and outgained by nearly 130 YPG. With all the turnover we’re not sure this team is all that excited to be here. ODU, on the other hand, is thrilled to be in this bowl game and fought like crazy to get here. They played a solid schedule with 10 bowl teams and they won 4 of those games. In their home finale, a game they needed for bowl eligibility, the Monarchs trailed Georgia State 19-0 at half and fought back for a 25-24 win. They’ve only been in 2 bowl games in their history, the most recent a few years ago in 2021. We expected ODU to control the trenches in this game even before WKY lost nearly their entire offensive line. The Monarchs rushed for an impressive 183 YPG vs bowl teams and they are facing a Hilltopper defense that ranks 123rd at stopping the run and vs bowl teams they allowed 243 YPG on the ground. Meanwhile Western barely averages 100 YPG rushing and ODU’s defense allowed just 3.4 YPC vs other bowl teams. Old Dominion played the tougher schedule, the 2 teams had very similar YPG & YPP differential, and the Monarchs team is more in tact right now when compared to Western Kentucky. We’ll lay the small number in this one.

ASA play on 8* Baltimore Ravens -2.5 or -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars, 8:20 PM ET - The Ravens are playing for the #1 seed in the AFC and are playing like the best team in the AFC. Jacksonville had some early season success with favorable luck but have lost 3 of their last five games. The Jags have lost two straight to the Bengals with Jake Browning at QB and the Browns with Joe Flacco. Now they face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens who have the 2nd best overall DVOA rating in the NFL, rank 5th offensively and 2nd defensively. A perfect comparison can be made when the 49ers came to Jacksonville earlier this season as a 3-point favorite and won 34-3. Baltimore’s ten wins this season have all come by 3 or more points. You could argue that this team should be undefeated at this point. They lost in late September to the Colts in OT, completely outplayed the Steelers and lost by 7-points and in their 3rd loss of the season it took a late pick’6 by the Browns to seal their fate. The Jags true home wins are not impressive as they’ve come against the Colts and Titans. Jacksonville is 8-5 on the season but are more like a .500 team statistically. They rank 16th in offensive DVOA and 8th in defensive DVOA but they had ranked as high as 3rd just a few weeks ago. Last season the Jags beat the Ravens 28-27 so it’s not likely Baltimore will be looking past this opponent. Lay the points.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Atlanta Falcons -2.5 or -3 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Huge game for the Falcons who are tied for the NFC South lead with Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Atlanta is off a deceiving home loss vs TB but outplayed the Bucs big time in that game. The Birds outgained the Bucs 434 to 290 yards and they were +2.0 YPP in that loss. They had won 2 straight prior to last week’s tough loss so the Falcons could easily be on a 3 game winning streak. Last week’s loss gives us some value here with the number where it is at -3. Carolina is now 1-12 after getting blown out @ New Orleans last week. They are dead last in point differential on the season losing by an average of 11 PPG. The Panthers are getting outgained by 1.0 YPP and their only win this season came by a mere 2 points. We’re laying only a FG here and every loss Carolina has had this year has come by at least 3 points and 9 of their 12 losses have come by at least a TD. The Panthers offense is the worst in the NFL averaging barely 4.0 YPP and they are facing a sneaky good Atlanta defense that ranks 6th in the NFL giving up only 5.1 YPP. The Cats have scored 15 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games, only topping that number vs TB where they scored 18. Needless to say we don’t expect Carolina’s offense to break out and have an unusually good performance here. Atlanta has a 6-7 record yet their numbers suggest they are better than that. They have a positive YPG and YPP differential on the season. The Falcons have dominated this series winning 12 of the last 16 meetings and we’re only laying a FG here which is the 2nd lowest spread of any team vs Carolina this season. The Panthers are just 8-20 SU vs division opponents since 2019 and we look for Atlanta to win this one by more than a FG

ASA top play on 10* Green Bay Packers -3 or -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 PM ET - Everyone who watched the Monday night game will be jumping off the Packers bandwagon here but we like the situation to ‘buy low’ on Green Bay. We expect the Packers to bounce back off that ugly showing and play as they did in the three previous games. Green Bay has also won 3 straight at home against the Rams, Chargers and Chiefs. The Bucs are coming off a huge win over the Falcons in a game that they were thoroughly outplayed. Tampa Bay was outgained 290 to 434 by Atlanta and averaged 4.3 yards per play which was a full 2.0 less YPP than the Falcons. The Bucs defense is decimated with injuries right now and it’s shown on the field as they allow 5.6YPP (27th), 363YPG (27th) and can’t stop the pass giving up the 30th most passing yards per game at 264YPG. The Packers are averaging the 9th most passing YPG over their last 3 games and have put up the 9th most total YPG in that same time frame. The Bucs rank in the lower third of the NFL in most key offensive categories including total YPG, yards per play, yards per rush and rank 20th in passing YPG. In their last three home games, the Packers defense has allowed 20-points or less and they have much better statistics at Lambeau than on the road. We like the Packers at home by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 38 Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns, 1PM ET - We get a pair of solid defenses here and two very average offenses in what shapes up to be a low scoring affair. The Browns hemorrhage points on the road but have been much better at home where they allow 12.6PPG which is best in the league. Last week the 27-points scored by the Jags was misleading as they managed under 300-total yards in the game and scored a late TD with 1:33 remaining. The Browns have certainly gotten a boost from veteran QB Flacco, but he has a very low QBR of 41.5 with 5 TD’s and 2 INT’s. Let’s also consider the two games he’s played in have come against the Rams and Jags who rank 20th and 31st in passing YPG allowed. The addition of DL Sweat has bolstered the Bears pass rush which is averaging 2.7 sacks per game over their last three so expect plenty of pressure on the immobile Flacco. The Bears defense has been rising in the stat charts in recent weeks and currently sit 13th in yards per play allowed at 5.2YPP. In their last three games they are giving up just 4.9YPP defensively. We don’t expect Chicago to put up a big number here offensively against this Browns D. Chicago is 22nd in yards per play at 5.2YPP, rank 21st in total yards per game and average 20.8PPG which is 20th. The Browns allow the fewest yards per game in the league, 3rd fewest yards per play, rank 11th in rushing D and 1st in passing D. This game has that 17-14 type outlook. Bet Under.

#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -4 over Denver Broncos, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - Getting very solid value here with Detroit in our opinion. They’ve had their struggles the last few weeks but let’s remember just a few weeks ago they were 8 point home favorites vs Green Bay and now the Lions are laying -4 (current line as of Thursday) vs Denver. We actually have GB power rated about 1 point higher than the Broncos right now so you can see the value with Detroit. The Lions are in must win mode at home coming off a loss last week @ Chicago (we were on Chicago) and the Packers just 2 games behind. Detroit has been much better at home this season with a YPP differential of +1.2 (on the road they are +0.1) and a YPG differential of +113. In their 2 home losses vs Green Bay and Seattle, the Lions outgained both of those opponents but they were -6 in turnover differential which makes it almost impossible to win. The Lions are averaging over 400 YPG at home and QB Goff has been much better at Ford Field completing 70% of his attempts for an average of 275 YPG through the air. Denver is on a 6-1 SU run which we feel has pushed them into overvalued range. In those 6 wins they benefited greatly from turnovers (+14 TO margin in those 6 games alone) but they were outgained in half those wins. This is the Broncos third straight road game having played @ Houston and @ LA Chargers the last 2 weeks. They have the 2nd worst road YPP differential in the NFL at -1.90. In their win over the Chargers last week, Denver caught another break when LA QB Herbert was injured in the 2nd quarter and out the remainder of the game. Despite their 6-1 record, Denver’s offense hasn’t been great during that stretch averaging less than 5.0 YPP in 5 of 7 games. We like Detroit to bounce back from last week’s loss @ Chicago and pick up a solid home win.

#209/210 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 48 Points – Boise State vs UCLA, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Both teams lost their starting QB’s to the transfer portal with UCLA’s Moore heading to Michigan and Boise’s Green heading to Arkansas. The Bruins did rotate QB’s with Moore this season, however Garbers (the back up) injured his shoulder in their season finale vs Cal. Looks like he will play but even so, UCLA’s offense was a train wreck down the stretch. This offense scored 10 points or fewer in 3 of their final 4 games including vs defenses ranked 109th (Cal) and 92nd (Arizona State). This is a run heavy offense (15th in the country in rushing attempts per game) that might be without the top RB Steele who has been held out of practice due to an injury. Boise’s offense was lights out at the end of the season but we’re expecting a huge tail off here as they are down to their 3rd string QB, CJ Tiller, a freshman who has never taken a collegiate snap. He’ll be facing a UCLA defense that is by far the best and most athletic stop unit the Broncos have faced this season. The Bruins rank in the top 10 in the country in most defensive categories and they’ve allowed only 3 opponents to top 20 points this season. Boise’s defense was poor early in the season but after head coach Avalos was fired (hearing players didn’t like him at all) they really played well holding 5 of their last 6 opponents to 20 points or less. Both teams average over 40 rush attempts per game (both top 25 in that stat) which eats clock and shortens games. We expect that here especially with the uncertainty at QB for both sides. This one stays Under the Total

#207 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State -3.5 over Fresno State, Saturday at 5:45 PM ET - NMSU has been a cover machine this season with a spread record of 10-3-1. Their head coach, Jerry Kill (former Minnesota head coach), has done a masterful job including keeping his team motivated late in the season when they really didn’t have anything to play for. The Aggies final 2 games of the season were “meaningless” so to speak as they had already locked up a spot in the CUSA Championship game and were bowl eligible. In their final 2 regular season games they beat Auburn on the road 31-10 as 24+ point underdogs. It wasn’t flukey at all as they outgained the Tigers by 200 yards and ran the ball for 213 yards on the SEC defense! The week after was a PERFECT letdown spot playing a solid Jacksonville State team with the CUSA Title game on deck and having just beaten Auburn on the road. They won that game as well never trailing and outgaining Jax St by 122 yards. Impressive to say the least. The Aggies did lose in the CUSA to an undefeated Liberty team but even in that game NMSU put up 500 total yards in a game that was tied in the 4th quarter. This game is in Albuquerque so a semi home game for the Aggies who are thrilled to be here. We’re not so sure Fresno feels the same way. This game was undefeated in early October and won 7 of their first 8 games and had Mountain West title hopes on their minds. They tanked down the stretch losing 3 in a row to close out the season and getting topped ATS in all 3 games by a combined 73 points! Two of those losses came vs a pair of teams that finished the year with 4-8 records, New Mexico and San Diego State by 8 and 15 points respectively. Their head coach Jeff Tedford will not be coaching in this bowl game and they have a couple of key injuries on the offensive and defensive lines. NMSU should control the trenches here as their running game averages over 200 YPG on 5.8 YPC (4th in the country) facing an Bulldog defense that ranks 98th vs the run. The Aggies average 7.0 YPP on the season (9th nationally) and they have a YPP differential of +1.0 compared to Fresno who is dead even in that category (5.5 YPP offense / 5.5 YPP defense). New Mexico State is absolutely the more motivated team here and we like them to cover this number.

ASA play on 8* Los Angeles Chargers +3 or +3.5 at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 PM ET - We are grabbing the points here in what shapes up to be a low scoring game. The Chargers are without Justin Herbert for the rest of the season and turn to QB Easton Stick to lead them from here on out. Stick actually looked decent last week against Denver going 13 of 24 for 179 passing yards. Stick is a proven winner as he went 49-3 in college at North Dakota State. He’s been with L.A. for 5 years and knows the system as well as anyone. The Raiders also have quarterback concerns as Aiden O’Connell hasn’t really stood out. Last week the rookie was 21 of 32 for 171 yards and an interception. The Raiders offense is one of the very worst in the league ranking 29th in DVOA. Expect L.A. to focus on their running game here against a Raiders D that ranks 25th in rushing yards p/game allowed and 23rd in yards per/rush allowed. You can’t bet the Raiders and expect them to cover any number greater than 3-points when they average 15.5PPG and have scored 17 or less in four straight games. The Chargers beat this Raider team earlier this season 24-17 as a 7-point favorite and Herbert was a pedestrian 13/24 for 167 yards. As we stated earlier, with the low total of 34-points on this game we like whatever points are available and the Dog.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 37 Green Bay Packers at NY Giants, Monday 8:15 PM ET - The NFL Under trends and specifically Prime Time TV Unders will continue on Monday night when the Packers and Giants square off in the Meadowlands. Let’s put aside the Under record on MNF of 13-2 on the season and focus on the two teams involved and the given situation. Both teams have struggled to score points this season, especially the Giants who average 13.3PPG on the year. Green Bay is considered ‘average’ in scoring at 21.5PPG. It takes the Giants 19.5 yards gained to score 1-point and Green Bay 15.3 yards gained for a point. Both teams are hovering around average in pace of play, so it won’t be a high possession game. The Packers are below average in total yards per game at 329YPG, rank 13th in yards per play at 5.6, 20th in rushing YPG and 18th in passing YPG. The Giants offensive numbers are brutal as they rank last in the league in yards per game gained, 31st in yards per play, 18th in rushing and 32nd in passing yards. Defensively the Packers allow 20.2PPG which is below the league average of 21.7PPG. The Giants are allowing 24.3PPG but they’ve also faced some of the league highest scoring offenses with two games against the Cowboys, one versus Miami, San Fran and Buffalo. Green Bay is on a 6-3 Under streak their last nine games and the Giants have stayed under in 17 of their last eighteen at home. With potential high winds and adverse conditions, we like a low scoring game here.

#123 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos +3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Broncos come into this game off a 17-22 loss in Houston last week. Denver has won five of their last six games including wins against the Packers, Bills and Chiefs. Last week the Broncos defense held the Texans offense to 5.6 yards per play and 353 total yards which are less than their season averages of 5.8YPP and 373YPG. The Broncos defense is allowing 6.0YPP and 385YPG on the season but in their last three games that number dips to 5.0YPP and 335YPG. In our opinion the Chargers may be the biggest ‘fraud’ in the NFL this season. The five Bolts wins have come against the Patriots, Jets, Bears, Raiders and Vikings who have a combined 21 wins this season. The LA defense is near the bottom of the NFL in nearly every key category ranking 29th in total yards per game allowed (380), 29th in yards per play allowed (6.0), 17th against the run and 31st in passing yards per game allowed. Now take into consideration some of the offenses/quarterbacks they’ve faced including the Jets, Raiders, Patriots and Bears who all rank 25th or worse in offensive DVOA. The Denver offense has scored 20+ points in 8 of their last eleven games and QB Russell Wilson is quietly putting together a very nice season with 2,385 passing yards and 21 TD’s to 7 INT’s. Wilson has also added 310 rushing yards this season and has picked up crucial 1st downs with his feet when needed. Last season the two games between these two teams were decided by 3-points each. Grab the points here with Denver who wins by 3.

#110 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chicago Bears +3.5 over Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These two NFC North rivals met a few weeks ago in Detroit with the Lions winning 31-16 as a -7.5-point favorite. The Bears largely outplayed the Lions for most of the game before Detroit scored a TD with :29 seconds to play and then got a safety with :07 seconds left to seal the victory. The one area of that game that the Bears dominated was in the running game as they rushed for 183 yards on 46 attempts. Detroit ran it 22 times for 115 yards. That’s significant for this game as the weather conditions are projected to be horrible with high winds from 15-25mph and potential snow showers. QB Goff has played three straight games indoors and hasn’t had to play a game in adverse conditions this season. His QBR in games played outdoors drops dramatically compared to his indoor numbers. Even if the Lions decide to focus on their running game it will be extremely difficult against a vastly improved Bears defense that allows the least rushing yards in the league at 79YPG. In comparison, the Bears rush it for 4.4 yards per carry which is 9th best in the league and 137.7 yards per game which is 3rd most. Detroit has solid rushing defensive numbers for the entire season but in their last three games they are giving up 135RYPG which is 24th most. The Lions defense has allowed 26 plus points in 5 of their last six games while the Bears have allowed 24 or less in 6 of their last eight games. We like the Bears to get revenge in this one.

#118 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Jets +3.5 over Houston, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We’re going to plug our nose and take the Jets in this one as a solid value play in our opinion. Houston has been much better than most anticipated but now they have become a bit overvalued laying over a FG on the road in this one. The only other road game where the Texans were favored this year was at Carolina and Houston lost that game giving the Panthers (1-11 record) their only win of the season. The Texans haven’t played a road game in a month (Nov 12th) having played 3 straight home games. Historically teams that are favored by more than a FG on the road coming off 3 consecutive home games are 19-41 ATS. They also have a division game on deck @ Tennessee next Sunday and it wouldn’t surprise us at all of this young team was a little off their game on Sunday in this letdown spot. They also lost one of their top offensive playmakers in last week’s win over Denver as WR Tank Dell broke his leg and is out for the season. That’s a big blow to this offense that will be facing a very good Jets stop unit. NY ranks in the top 5 in both defensive DVOA and EPA. Last week NY lost at home to Atlanta but the defense held the Falcons to 193 total yards on just 3.0 YPP. Problem was the offense with back up Tim Boyle at QB. He was terrible in his 2 starts and cut from the team. Now they go back to Zach Wilson at QB who is much better than Boyle and should give the Jets a boost on that side of the ball. Houston struggles to run the ball and relies on rookie QB Stroud who has been very good. Here he is facing a Jets defense that ranks 3rd in pass defense and 2nd in yards per pass attempt. We’re getting cold & windy weather as well Sunday in East Rutherford, the first bad weather type game this dome team has played in this season. In what the oddsmakers think will be a low scoring game (total is 33) getting above a FG with the home team is a solid play.

#113/114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 40.5 Points - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This number is slightly higher than the first meeting of the season when the O/U was 37.5 and the two teams involved for 29 total points. So that game stays under a lower total and this number goes up? In the earlier meeting the Falcons racked up over 400 yards of total offense at 6.3 yards per play. The Bucs had 329 total yards of offense at 5.1YPP. There were several red zone opportunities by each team that didn’t result in points including a pair of potential TD’s by the Falcons. Atlanta fumbled at the 1-yard line and fumbled into the endzone for a touchback costing them 14-points. Tampa Bay also threw an interception at the 11-yard line as they were going into score. The Falcons gave up 8-points to the Jets last time out but that was the Jets. Prior to that game this defense allowed only 15-points to the Saints but New Orleans had 440+ total yards of offense which should have led to more points. Prior to that game the Falcons had allowed 25, 31 and 28 points in three straight games. Offensively the Birds had scored 23+ points in 4 straight games before managing just 13 against a good Jets defense in rainy conditions. Tampa Bay has put up 20+ points in 4 of their last five games and the only game they didn’t was against the best defense in the NFL at San Francisco. Defensively the Bucs aren’t as good as their reputation ranking 14th in DVOA (ATL is 25th). The Bucs gave up just 18-points last week to Carolina but the Panthers offense is the worst in the NFL. Before that game the Bucs had allowed 27 to the Colts and 49ers. In the second meeting of the same season between these two teams they have gone Over the number in 4 straight with every one of those games finishing with 47 or more points.

#474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville -10 over Cincinnati, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bengals offense will have big time problems generating anything in this game with Joe Burrow on the sidelines. Last week vs Pittsburgh the Bengals back up QB Browning had decent numbers (227 yards passing) but he had a number of turnover worthy plays that didn’t turn into turnovers. He threw 1 interception but that could have easily been 3 or 4. The Bengals scored 10 points vs the Steelers and we don’t see them generating any more in this game vs a solid Jacksonville defense (5th DVOA defense). Here’s the problem with Cincinnati’s offense in this game. Not only are the playing an inexperienced back up QB but they can’t run the ball at all (32nd in the NFL) which puts even more pressure on Browning to be perfect. The Jags run defense is 4th in the NFL allowing just 87 YPG so we don’t see Cincinnati’s run offense magically coming alive in this game. On the other side of the ball, the Jags are playing well offensively. They’ve put up 58 points the last 2 weeks combined but it could have been more. Last week vs Houston they averaged 6.5 YPP in a 24-21 win but they crossed into Houston territory on 8 of their 11 possessions. Jacksonville had 445 total yards but averaged only 1 point for every 18.5 yards gained which was well below their season average of 1 point every 14.5 yards gained entering last week. If they hit their yards per point average in that game they would have scored 31 points. Now they face a Cincy defense that ranks dead last in the NFL YPP allowed, 31st in total defense, 29th in rush defense, and 26th in pass defense. Last week Pittsburgh only scored 16 points on this defense but also had over 400 yards. Prior to last week Cincinnati had allowed 30+ points in their previous 2 games. This defense also ranks near the bottom of the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate which should allow the Jags to keep drives alive in this one. Jacksonville has played a tough home slate already facing SF, KC, and Houston, but in their home games vs lower tier opponents they rolled Indianapolis by 17 and Tennessee by 20. We see a similar outcome here. Lay it.

#467 ASA PLAY ON 8* San Francisco -3 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Eagles have been outgained by at least 98 yards in four straight games, and they’ve won each one. The Bills outgained them by 127 yards, and the Eagles defense couldn’t get off the field. Philly is 7-1 in one-score games, with five of those coming against teams at .500 or worse. The Eagles were trailing in the 4th quarter in 4 of last 6 games and they’ve been trailing at halftime in 5 games and won all 5. They’ve been very fortunate to say the least. Despite their 10-1 record, Philly’s overall numbers aren’t that impressive. They are only outgaining their opponents by +25 YPG and their YPP differential is barely above water at +0.2. San Fran has 2 more losses with a record of 8-3 but their numbers are much better with a YPG differential of +90 and a very solid YPP differential of +1.7. The point differential comparison is even more telling. Despite 2 more losses the Niners point differential is +140 which is more than double that of the Eagles point differential which is +64. Total season DVOA San Francisco ranks 2nd in the NFL while Philly coming in at 9th. The 49ers are better on both sides of the ball ranking 1st in offensive DVOA and 6th defensively compared to the Eagles 7th and 17th respectively. Philly has had 4 straight down to the wire games vs Washington, Dallas, KC, and Buffalo while SF has rolled up 3 double digit wins in a row and they have extra time to prepare here having faced Seattle on Thanksgiving Day. This one sets up really nicely for the 49ers to win on the road. We’ll lay it.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 47 San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 PM ET - Philadelphia has faced a tough gauntlet of games including last weeks OT thriller against the Bills. Philly trailed for much of that game but managed a game tying FG with .20 seconds left to send it to OT. In poor conditions the Bills and Eagles put up 61 points in regulation. The Philly defense was shredded for over 500 yards by the Bills last week and have given up 22.4PPG on the season which ranks bottom third in the NFL. The Eagles rank in the bottom half of the league in yards per game allowed (341), yards per play (5.5) and are especially vulnerable to the pass ranking 29th in passing YPG given up. They will have a hard time stopping a 49ers offense that is 3rd in yards per game gained, 2nd in yards per play at 6.6, 7th in rushing and 8th in passing YPG. The Niners offense had scored 30+ points in five straight games to start the season then had 3 lower scoring outputs with Deebo Samuel out of the lineup. With his return they have scored 34, 27 and 31-points in three straight games. The Philadelphia offense will face a stiff test versus this top ranked 49er defense, but they have more than enough weapons on that side of the football. Philadelphia ranks top 13 in most key offensive categories including being 3rd in scoring at 28.2PPG. The Eagles have scored 30+ points in 4 of five home games this season and 28+ in all five. It’s not a stretch for both teams to score in the 30’s in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Texans -3 vs Denver Broncos, 1:00 PM ET - We have lost value in this game as the number crossed -3 but we still like the Texans in this situation as long as they are under -4. The Broncos have won 5 straight games and certainly played better but we aren’t sold yet. Four of those games came at home and two of those wins came by 3-total points. They were also outgained in four of those five wins. Houston was on a bit of a heater themselves with 3 straight wins prior to last weeks huge loss to the Jaguars. The Texans with CJ Stroud have been a huge surprised this season with a 6-5 SU record with all six wins coming in the last nine games. These teams have identical records, yet the Texans rank 12th in overall DVOA while the Broncos are 22nd. Houston is 12th in offensive DVOA, Denver 12th, the Texans are 20th in defensive DVOA, the Broncos are 32nd. The Texans are averaging 6.0 yards per play which is the 4th best number in the league. Houston is 6th in yards per game and 2nd in passing yards per game at 276. The Broncos defense allows 388YPG which is 30th, give up 6.3YPP (31st) and give up the 23rd most passing YPG. Denver wants to run the football with the 8th best rush offense, but Houston stops the run extremely well allowing 3.6 yards per rush which is the 3rd best number in the NFL. Denver has only played 4 road games and they go to Houston where the Texans have won 4 of their last five. The Broncos run comes to an end here.

#321 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville +1.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 8 PM ET- Florida State struggled last week @ Florida but knocked off the Gators 24-15 in a game they trailed 12-0 late in the 2nd quarter. Despite the win the Noles were outgained in the game and had only 90 yards rushing on 2.9 YPC compared to 146 yards rushing for the Gators. In their first game after losing starting QB Travis the offense was not impressive. 2nd string QB Rodemaker was underwhelming completing less than 50% of his passes for only 134 yards vs a team that didn’t even qualify for a bowl game. He is dealing with a concussion issue and may not play in this game, if so FSU has 2 very inexperienced QB’s behind Rodemaker. Louisville’s defense as a whole is very good (top 20 nationally) but their run defense is the strength of that unit allowing only 96 YPG on 3.3 YPC (12th best run defense in the country). If FSU struggles to run as they did vs Florida, that puts this game on the back of Rodemaker which will make it tough. The Cards are coming off a loss vs in state rival Kentucky getting outscored 17-7 in the 4th quarter losing 38-31. U of L outgained the Wildcats 403 to 289 in that loss but had 3 turnovers, which led directly to 10 Kentucky points. The Cats also had a 100 yard kick return for TD which was too much to overcome. The Cards are 10-2 on the season and in their 2 losses they outgained their opponents by a combined 833 to 577. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedule and their YPG differential is nearly the same. The difference is FSU did their damage for all but 1 game with their high level QB Travis under center. With him out, we give Louisville the edge here. As an undefeated team that absolutely had to win this game to have any consideration for the CFP, the Seminoles have all the pressure on them in this game. We like the Cards in Charlotte on Saturday night.

#313/314 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 60.5 Points – UNLV vs Boise State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - These offenses are humming right now and we don’t think they slow down here. After a slow start to the season offensively, the Broncos have now topped 30 points in 9 of their last 10 games. The only time they did not hit that mark was last week vs Air Force who has the 6th best defense in the country and Boise still put up 27 points and over 400 yards at 7.4 YPP in that win. UNLV has topped 30 points in 8 of their 12 games this season including 4 games in a row. Last week we were on the Over 59 in the UNLV vs SJSU game and the final score was 37-31. That game could have had more points as the 2 teams combined for only 6 punts in 22 possessions and the offenses combined to average right around 7.0 YPP. Both defenses in this game rank outside the top 90 in YPP allowed and outside the top 70 in total defense so we look for both offenses to continue their success. Boise’s defense looks like it has improved over the last 3 or 4 games however a closer look reveals they’ve been pretty lucky. Last week they gave up 19 points in an Air Force offense that has been in a freefall scoring less than 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. A week earlier they held a good Utah State offense to 10 points but the Aggies had 4 turnovers and were shut out on downs 3 times in Boise territory. The only 2 teams the Rebels held under 20 points this season were Wyoming and New Mexico and they allowed at least 27 points in 7 games this season. This game is being played in a controlled environment @ Allegiant Stadium in Vegas so perfect conditions for scoring. Over is our play on this game.

#305 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Oregon -9.5 over Washington, Saturday at 8 PM ET - There is a reason the team that has 1 loss on the season is favored by nearly double digits over the undefeated team. On top of that, the favored team in this game lost to the undefeated team this year yet still is a hefty chalk. We’ve been saying for weeks this Washington team is trending down and has been since they beat Oregon 36-33 back in mid October. The Huskies have now been outgained in 5 of their last 7 games including last week’s 24-21 home win over Washington State. The Huskies needed a last second FG to pull that one off and they barely had 300 total yards of offense vs a Wazzu defense that came into the game 83rd nationally in total defense. Even in their win over the Ducks this season, Washington had 7 fewer first downs and they were outgained by 125 yards and that was when the Huskies were clicking on all cylinders. They are just 2-6 ATS their last 8 games and the defense has fallen all the way to 84th nationally allowing over 400 total YPG. They’ve won 1 game in Pac 12 play by more than 10 points so this team has been flirting with disaster but remains undefeated. Meanwhile the Ducks defense ranks in the top 15 nationally and has allowed 19 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Since their loss to Washington, the Ducks have won 6 in a row with 5 of those coming by at least 14 points. Despite having 1 less win than UW in Pac 12 play (Washington 9-0 and Oregon 8-1) the Ducks point differential in league play is +225 compared to +72 for Washington! Oregon also averages over 100 YPG more than Washington in conference play while allowing over 100 less than the Huskies in Pac 12 games. Oregon is the much better and more complete team right now and with 1 loss already, if they get a chance to pour it on they will do just that in their last attempt to make College Football’s Final 4. No holding back in this one. We like the Ducks by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys -8.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 PM ET - Being a professional sports bettor for over 30 years makes it very difficult to lay the points with Dallas here as this play has ‘public’ written all over it. We will make an exception though and don’t feel this line is high enough yet after opening with Dallas minus -6 or -7. The Cowboys at home have put up an average of 31.5PPG and have margins of victory of over 20PPG in 5 wins. The Dallas offense at home averages 7.0 yards per play which is 7th best in the league and total over 377YPG. Dak Prescott and the offense have the #1 ranked completion percentage at home at 70.3% and average the 4th most passing YPG at home. Seattle has taken a turn for the worse this season after a solid start and have lost 3 of their last four games. The Seahawks road numbers are especially bad as they are averaging just 10.6PPG in their last three road contests and two of those came against below average defenses of the Rams and Bengals. Seattle’s offense is below average in most key categories including total YPG, rushing and passing yards per game. Thursday, they face a Dallas D that is 3rd in yards per game allowed, yards per play allowed and give up just 16.8PPG which is 4th best. The Cowboys have won 13 straight home games and have scored 38+ in four straight in AT&T Stadium.

#273 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Bears +3 over Minnesota Vikings, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bears are back at full strength with Justin Fields back in at QB and we like them to give Minnesota problems on Monday night. Chicago played @ Detroit last Sunday and led for much of the 2nd half including holding a 12 point lead with under 3:30 remaining in the game. The Lions pulled out a miracle with 17 points from that point on to beat Chicago by 5. Minnesota had their 5 game winning streak ended with a 21-20 loss @ Denver last week. New QB Dobbs has looked very solid for the Vikings but struggled in the 2nd half last week leading Minnesota to just 10 points along with throwing an interception. Dobbs was also very solid to start the year with Arizona but as teams figured out the Cards offense and how they were going to use him, he tapered off and we wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here. In the first meeting this season, Minnesota was at 100% with Cousins at QB and really struggled to beat the Bears 19-13. In that game Minnesota only scored 1 offensive TD and had a long fumble recovery for a TD which was the difference in the game. Chicago had more first downs and outgained the Vikings in that loss but had 3 turnovers. Five of Minnesota’s six wins this season have come by a single score and they’ve only won 1 game by more than 8 points. Four of Chicago’s last five losses have been 1 score games. The Bears offense should get back on track with Fields back in the line up and their defense has been very good as of late jumping from near the bottom of the NFL in late September to 15th in total defense where they currently stand. Minnesota has been historically poor on Monday nights with a 5-13 spread record since 2009. We think Chicago has a great shot at the upset here. Take the points.

#269/270 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Many still view KC as the same high scoring offense as last year’s team that led the league averaging just over 29 PPG. That’s not the case as the Chiefs are struggling offensively and averaging a full TD less than last season (22 PPG). The defense is what is carrying the Chiefs this season as they rank 4th in total defense and DVOA defense and 5th in YPP allowed. They are allowing only 16 PPG which is good for 3rd in the NFL behind only San Francisco and Baltimore. They have held 8 of their last 9 opponents to 21 or less and we don’t expect Vegas to get near that number with rookie QB O’Connell under center again this week. Last week the Raiders scored only 13 points @ Miami and in the 5 games that O’Connell has taken snaps they’ve been held to 17 or fewer points 4 times. The Raiders have been held to 14 points or less in 3 of their last 4 meetings with KC and this year the Chiefs have the best defense they’ve had during that stretch. What’s impressed us about Las Vegas is the huge upgrade they’ve made defensively. After finishing last season ranked 26th in PPG allowed, they rank 12th in the NFL allowing 20 PPG this season and have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 20 points or less. Even vs the potent Miami offense last week Vegas allowed only 20 points. We think they’ll continue to play well in this division game vs Kansas City. The implied score in this game based on the spread (KC -10) and the total (43.5) is right around 27-17. We don’t think the Las Vegas offense will get to 17 vs this Chiefs defense and KC has only topped 27 points TWICE the entire season. Under is the call on Sunday afternoon.

#251/252 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 48 Points - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans – 1:00 PM CT - This is a big game for the potential winner in the AFC South with the Jags holding a 1-game lead in the standings, but the Texans beat the Jags earlier in the season. The first meeting had a total of 43.5 points and finished with 54 points being scored in a 37-17 Texans win. There were several big plays in the game with an 85-kick return for a TD along with a 68-yards touchdown pass. There was also a blocked FG that turned into great field position and a quick score for Houston. Eliminate a few of those outlier plays and that came stays Under the total of 43.5 points. With the added value in this O/U number we have to bet Under. Going back to September 17th we find that games involving Jacksonville have totaled 48 or less points 6 out of nine games. Houston and their opponents have totaled less than 48 points in 6 of their ten games and again, one of those Overs came when they played this Jags team and they had several unusual scoring plays. Three of the last four meetings between these two AFC South teams has resulted in 46 or less points.

#233 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State -2.5 over New Mexico State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This is a really solid situational spot for Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks are not eligible for a bowl game this year so you can expect them to treat this as their bowl game. They are facing an NMSU team that has already qualified for the CUSA Championship game next weekend where they will be facing Liberty. On top of that, New Mexico State is coming off a HUGE upset last weekend beating Auburn (maybe caught Tigers looking ahead to Alabama this week?) on the road as a 25 point dog. To add fuel to the fire, JSU, because they joined the conference this year is not eligible to play in the CUSA Championship. If they were, this game would be for a spot in that game with both teams at 6-1 in league play and because of that you can bet this is a huge statement game for JSU. Add that up and this is a prime letdown spot for the Aggies looking ahead to next week’s Championship game. JSU played arguably their best game of the season last week beating La Tech 56-17 and outgained the Bulldogs 628 to 269. NMSU’s QB Pavia is banged up and they rely heavily on their running game which could be a problem in this game. JSU ranks 19th nationally allowing only 106 YPG and 4th nationally allowing 2.7 YPC. On the other side of the ball JSU averages almost 250 YPG on the ground (3rd in the nation) and they are facing a Aggie defense that ranks 41st defending the run and 61st in YPC allowed. There is a reason the road team is favored over the team playing in the CUSA Championship Game next week. We like JSU to win by more than a FG here.

#197/198 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 59.5 Points - San Jose State at UNLV, 3 PM ET - It all comes down to this game to determine who will play in the Mountain West Conference Championship. Air Force and Boise State could still manage to get it but either way, all teams involved must win to have that opportunity. With that in mind we expect this game to be a shootout between the Spartans and Rebels. In conference action this season UNLV games have averaged 59.2 total points per game. Conference games involving San Jose State have averaged slightly lower at 56.8PPG. After a slow start to the season, SJST has won 5 straight games and the offense has clicked with 52, 42, 35, 42 and 24-points. The Rebels have surprised everyone this season with their 8-2 record, and they too have put up some impressive offensive numbers by scoring 31 or more points in seven games this season, 40+ in five. UNLV is 41st in yards per play offense at 6.2, rank 40th in total YPG at 425, run and pass it equally well. The Spartans are 58th in total YPG (398), 30th in yards per play (6.4) and rank 32nd in rushing yards per game, 81st in passing yards per game. Both teams also hit on explosive scoring plays as evidenced by San Jose State averaging 12.9 yards per point scored (26th) and UNLV averaging 12.2YPPT which ranks 12th. We expect both teams to get into the 30’s in this one and predict an easy OVER winner.

#168 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -4.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Both these teams step into this game with a 3-8 record, however our power ratings have IU as the lowest rated team in the Big 10 and Purdue 3 points better on a neutral site. We’re getting them at basically that number at home on Saturday. Purdue is off a loss @ NW but they played that game without starting QB Card and he is expected back for this one. Even without Card, the Boilermakers were +9 first downs and +114 yards in that loss. What’s been impressive about the Purdue offense as of late is their running game. They have now rushed for over 300 yards in each of their last 2 games and the week prior to that they actually outrushed Michigan in their loss in Ann Arbor. They should have a big edge here in the trenches vs an Indiana team that ranks 107th running the ball and 120th in YPC. IU has lost 6 of their last 7 games with their only win coming at home vs Wisconsin with the Badgers playing their backup QB. And the Hoosiers were outgained in that win vs the Badgers by 80 yards but Wisconsin was -2 in turnovers. Despite the records being equal, Purdue has the better numbers vs nearly the same strength of schedule. The Boilers have the better point differential YPG differential and YPP differential. They have also covered 6 in a row vs the Hoosiers. Last year Purdue was -10.5 on the road vs IU (Purdue won by 14) and now we’re getting them at home right around a FG favorite. The Boilers lost to Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin at home however when facing lower tier Big 10 opponents (Illinois & Minnesota) they won by scores of 44-19 and 49-30. We like Purdue to win & cover at home on Saturday.

#185 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Tulane, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - These teams are both 7-0 in conference play and the winner of this game will move onto play on the AAC Championship game. Tulane has a few other options to make it to that game if they lose here but UTSA does not. We really like the way UTSA is playing right now and we also feel Tulane has been trending down for the last 4 or 5 weeks. The Roadrunners have won 7 straight games and they are 5-1-1 ATS during that stretch. Their offense has been rolling to say the least scoring at least 34 points in each of those 7 wins and topping 40 points 4 times. Tulane remains overvalued covering only 2 of their last 8 games and they’ve struggled with some of the AAC’s worst teams. Prior to winning and covering vs a bad FAU team last week, the Green Wave beat Tulsa by 2 (as 24.5 point favorites), beat ECU by 3 (as 17 point favorites), beat Rice by 2 (as 10 point favorites), and topped North Texas by 7 (as 20 point favorites). Their record remains great but this team is primed to be knocked off. On Friday they face the best team they’ve seen since losing by 17 at home vs Ole Miss back in September. Their offense is struggling not scoring more than 24 points in any of their last 3 games and 2 of those games were vs defenses ranked 90th and 129th nationally. We have UTSA rated as the better team and we’re getting more than a FG. When comparing the key stats in AAC play only, despite both teams having 7-0 records, UTSA has a point differential of +132 while Tulane’s point differential is +52. The Roadrunners are also +100 YPG and +1.4 YPP in conference play compared to the Green Wave who are +59 YPG and +0.5 YPP. UTSA has been a dog just once this season and that was @ Tennessee. They haven’t lost a game since September and 2 of their 3 losses this season came with star QB Harris (4 year starter with 11,600 passing yards and 91 TD’s in his career) out of the lineup with an injury. UTSA is undervalued right now and we like them to win this game and move onto the AAC Championship game.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #113 Miami Dolphins -9.5 vs. NY Jets, Friday 3 PM ET - Let’s be upfront on this wager. It looks like we are laying a premium price with the Dolphins here as this line opened with Miami favored by -7.5 points and has been bet up steadily since. Part of the bump in the number is the speculation the Jets are going to their 3rd string QB Tim Boyle. Boyle has been in the league for 5 years out of Eastern Kentucky with 18 games played with 607 total passing yards on 72/120 passing. He has 3 career TD’s to 9 INT’s. This Jets offense is putrid! They have scored 13, 6, 12 and 6-points in their past four games. New York is averaging 4.7 yards per play this season (29th) which is even worse in their past three games at 4.1YPP. The 270YPG and 15PPG average are both 30th in the league. They can’t run (23rd) at 99.8 rushing yards per game or pass (30th) at 170.5 passing YPG. Nothing will come easy against a Dolphins defense that is 12th in total YPG allowed and 13th in yards per play allowed. Miami has one of the best offenses in the NFL rankings 1st in total YPG, 1st in yards per play (7.2), 2nd in rushing and 1st in passing. The Jets simply cannot keep up with this offense. Miami has struggled against the good teams this season, but against the bad teams they’ve dominated with 4 double digit wins. Miami is coming off a poor final score against the Raiders with a 20-13 win. They dominated statistically with 9 more first downs, had 422 total yards of offense but 3 key turnovers cost them points. This week they make a statement on Friday with a 2 or more TD win over the Jets.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #106 Detroit Lions -7.5 vs. Green Bay Packers, Thursday 12:30 PM ET - The extra ½ point on this game will have plenty of bettors on the Packers as a division dog but not us. The Lions were favored by -2.5 points at Lambeau earlier this season and put up 34-points in a 14-point win. Detroit put up over +400 total yards of offense and held the Packers to 230. In week #2 of this season the Lions were favored by 6-points at home against Seattle and lost 31-37. Since then, they have gone 4-0 SU at home with three of those wins coming by 14 or more points. Last week they trailed the Bears for most of the game before two TD’s late in the game for a win. That should serve as a wake-up call for the Lions. Green Bay has to travel here on a short week and are coming off a satisfying home win over the Chargers. The Packers QB Jordan Love has looked good the past two weeks but now he’ll be playing without RB Aaron Jones and going up against a Lions defense that is ranked 9th in defensive DVOA. Detroit is 5th against the run, 9th in total YPG allowed and 8th in opponents completion percentage. Green Bay is 18th in offensive DVOA and 23rd defensively. The Packers have one road win this season (Bears) and they haven’t faced a team of the Lions caliber on the road yet. Last season the Lions had an average +/- at home of +7.8PPG, this year that average is +8.6PPG.

#103/104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points – Bowling Green vs Western Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We were on the Over in the WMU vs Northern Illinois game last week and the Broncos let us down with their worst performance of the season. We like them to bounce back in their home finale on Tuesday. WMU didn’t score a point last week but prior to that they were averaging 31.5 PPG their previous 7 games and only Ohio (ranked 5th nationally in total defense) held them under 21 points. BG’s defense went through a stretch of games recently where their defense looked very good. Those 4 games were vs Buffalo, Kent, Ball State, and Akron, and not one of those offenses ranks inside the top 105 nationally. Last week the Falcons gave up 32 points to Toledo and prior to that 4 games stretch vs terrible offenses, they had allowed an average of 31 PPG their prior 4 games. We like WMU’s to have success on Tuesday. On the other side, Bowling Green’s offense has been rolling to say the least. They’ve scored at least 24 points in 6 of their last 7 games and if we subtract their one offensive stinker during that stretch vs Miami OH (23rd defense nationally) the Falcons averaged 34.5 PPG in the other 6 games. Their facing a bad Western Michigan defense on Tuesday as the Broncos rank 11th in the MAC (12 team conference) in total defense and scoring defense. WMU has allowed at least 20 points in every game this season and they’ve allowed 40+ four times. WMU games have topped 50 total points in 7 of their last 9 games and BG games have topped 50 in 4 of their last 6. With this total sitting in the low 50’s we’re getting some value with the Over here. Weather can be an issue in the Midwest this time of year but not on Tuesday in Kalamazoo with showers ending before or near kickoff, temps in the 40’s and light winds.

#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Super Bowl rematch here and we’ll side the team that won that game, the Chiefs, at home on Monday night. Both teams are off a bye, however we feel this heavily favors KC and head coach Andy Reid. He’s been lights out off a bye during his coaching career with a 21-3 SU lifetime record. This line says that these 2 teams are dead even on a neutral field which we don’t agree with. We have KC as the better team and DVOA agrees with us as they have the Chiefs rated 3rd in the NFL and Philadelphia 9th. DVOA also rates KC better on offense and defense. They’ve played the more difficult schedule and they have the better numbers. KC is +80 YPG and +0.9 YPP while the Eagles are +50 YPG and +0.2 YPP. The Chiefs also have a better point differential despite having one less win. The Eagles are 4-1 SU on the road however this is their first real test away from home. Their road slate has been one of the easiest in the NFL facing the Jets, Commanders, Patriots, Rams, and Bucs thus far. Despite winning 3 straight games, Philly simply isn’t playing all that well getting outgained by more than 100 yards in 2 of those wins vs Dallas & Washington. QB Hurts has not been 100% (leg injury) and he just lost one of his top targets TE Goedert with an arm injury. KC has won 20 of their last 22 home games and all but one of those wins had come by at least 3 points. We look for Patrick Mahomes to have a big night vs a Philly defense that ranks 28th vs the pass and 29th in opposing QBR. With this sitting under a FG, we like the Chiefs to cover at home.

#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings +2.5 or +3 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Broncos look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 3 straight. However, they have been outgained in 2 of those 3 wins and in the other “W” they only outgained the Packers by 8 yards. They were underdogs in 2 of those wins and a small 1 point favorite vs Green Bay. Now they are officially overvalued laying nearly a full FG vs a solid Minnesota team that has won 5 straight games and covered 6 of their last 7. This Denver team is flat out bad when laying points with a 4-15-1 ATS run their last 20 in that role. They lost 13 of those 20 games outright. Minnesota has continued to play very well after inserting Dobbs at starting QB. In 2 games with the Vikings Dobbs has thrown for 426 yards on 67% completions with 3 TD’s and no picks. Their rushing attack doesn’t have good numbers for the season but the Vikes have balanced their offense out nicely with 125 and 146 yards rushing the last 2 games. On the other side the defense is vastly improved ranking in the top 10 in YPP allowed giving up a full 1.0 YPP less than last season. The Vikings have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to less than 20 points. Minnesota has the much better overall numbers on the season with a point differential of +24 (Denver is -52), a YPG margin of +35 (Denver is -100), and a YPP margin of +0.6 (Denver is -0.8). We’ll take the better overall team as an underdog in this one.

#453 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arizona Cardinals +6 over Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is a very dangerous game in our opinion for Houston. They’ve only been favored three times this season and never more than 3.5 points. They didn’t cover any of those games and lost 2 of them outright. The Texans are coming off a huge road win topping Cincinnati 30-27 and held on for dear life with the Bengals turning the ball over in Houston territory in 2 of their final 4 possessions. We feel a letdown is in order here for a team that is not used to having much success. We feel Arizona could be a very dangerous team moving forward with Kyler Murray back in the line up at QB. They topped a solid Atlanta team last week and the Cards dominated the stat sheet outgained the Falcons by 100 yards and +2.0 YPP. Murray was dynamic under center with 249 yards passing and 33 yards rushing. His mobility will make it tough to defend this offense on Sunday. Arizona also got top RB Conner back in the fold after an injury and he ran for 73 yards on 16 carries. The entire Arizona team seemed rejuvenated with Murray back under center. We’ll see how the Texans handle some unexpected success on Sunday. Historically, poor teams from the previous season that pull upsets are a heavy play against. In fact, NFL favorites from week 5 on that are off a SU upset win as a dog and won 4 or fewer games the previous season have a spread record of 32-66 ATS the last 44 seasons! It’s hard for teams that aren’t used to success to suddenly handle success well. That goes for Houston who is 0-6 ATS the last 6 times they’ve been favored including 0-3 ATS this year as we already mentioned. Take the points in what we feel will be a close game on Sunday.

#456 ASA PLAY ON 8* Green Bay Packers +3 vs LA Chargers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is a bad line by the oddsmakers and we’ll gladly capitalize on the home underdog Packers. The Packers are coming off a game in Pittsburgh they should have won as the Steelers were once again outgained but still managed to win. Green Bay racked up 399 total yards against Pittsburgh’s defense that is rated 7th in defensive DVOA and now face a Chargers unit ranked 27th. The Packers averaged 6.1 yards per play a full 1.0YPP better than their season average. L.A. is coming off a home loss to the Lions 38-41. The Lions averaged 8.3YPP against the Chargers D and put up 533 total yards of offense. Those defensive numbers aren’t shocking as the Chargers are 30th in the league in yards per play D, 31st in total yards allowed per game and 32nd in passing yards per game allowed. The Packers defense has been better than expected this season allowing 320YPG (11th best), 5.1YPP (7th) and hold opponents to 20.2PPG (12th). The Chargers rely on their passing attack offensively but have injury concerns to the WR corps and they’ll be facing a solid Packer pass defense. Green Bay allows the 7th fewest passing YPG this season at 187YPG, along with ranking 7th in yards per completion and 8th in yards per attempt. Green Bay has lost two games at home this season but that was to the Lions and Vikings (w/Cousins) who we rate better than L.A. Not to mention, the lines on those two games were lower than this one.

#460 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Titans rookie QB Will Levis played well in his first start but now teams have game tape on him and can better prepare or scheme for the young QB. He is in a tough situation here with this being his third straight road game and the Titans have not played well away from home. Tennessee is averaging just 12PPG (30th) away from home and 255YPG which is 30th in the NFL. They are 0-5 SU on the road and also have a negative average differential of minus -9.7PPG. Last week the Jags schedule finally caught up with them and they faced a highly motivated 49ers team off a 3 game losing streak. They were blown out by 31-points which should serve as a wake up call this week. Prior to that game the Jags had won 5 straight games with four of those five wins coming by 7 or more points. This is one of those fishy lines with the Jags favored by 7 full points when they were only favored by 4 at home against the Colts and 3 against the Falcons. Tennessee just played at Tampa and was +2.5 and the week before they were +3 at Pittsburgh. This looks like an obvious trap by the oddsmakers as they are baiting you to back the Titans. Let’s not do it!

#430 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -14.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - We were on the Spartans last week as they rolled over a very solid Fresno State team 42-18 and we expect more of the same on Saturday. San Jose State is 5-5 and they need one more win for bowl eligibility. They are much better than their .500 record as their losses have come at the hands for USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, and Boise State and those teams have a combined record of 38-15! Because of that tough early slate for the Spartans, they are still undervalued as we speak having covered 7 of their last 8 games. They’ve won 4 straight in blowout fashion, including rolling over an 8-1 Fresno State team last Saturday as we mentioned. The Spartans have beaten those 4 opponents by a combined score of 171 to 63 and outgained those teams 1,830 to 1,160. They already have one of the top QB’s in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro (11,400 career passing yards and 81 TD’s) and now their running game is clicking on all cylinders with over 1,000 yards over the last 4 games. Last week they completely dominated the line of scrimmage rushing for 313 yards to just 83 for Fresno. That was vs a Bulldog defense that was allowing just 125 YPG rushing and now SJSU faces a San Diego State defense that ranks 111th vs the run. SDSU has been a huge disappointment this season and last week’s loss @ Colorado State knocked them out of bowl contention with a current record of 3-7. Now on the road for the 2nd straight week, we may not see a lot of fight out of this Aztec team. They are getting outgained by 100 YPG and by 1.0 YPP on the season. The SDSU offense ranks 112th in total offense and 116th in scoring and they are going to try and keep up with a team that has averaged 43 PPG over their last 4? We don’t thinks so. Another easy win for SJSU who is also looking for revenge after losing to the Aztecs last season as a favorite.

#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State +7.5 over Texas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Texas has been playing a number of tight games as of late with 4 of their last 5 decided by a TD or less. Their last 2 road games have gone to the wire winning by just 7 @ Houston as a 23.5 point favorite and winning by 3 last week @ TCU as a 13 point favorite. The Horns have covered only once in their last 5 games and they’ll have all they can handle here vs an ISU team that has had their number. Iowa State has won 3 of the last 4 season vs Texas with their only loss coming @ UT last year 24-21 as a 16 point dog. ISU had over 400 yards in the loss and outgained Texas in the process. The Cyclones are also playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 7 games with their only losses during that stretch coming @ Oklahoma and vs Kansas by a final of 28-21. Texas took huge blow in last week’s tight win @ TCU losing all everything RB Brooks (1,100 rushing yards and 10 TD’s) to an injury and he’ll be out for the rest of the year. The Clones are playing their home finale here with some solid momentum after rolling @ BYU 45-13 last week. They have a top 25 defense and head coach Matt Campbell has proven he knows how to defend the potent Longhorn attack not allowing Texas to top 24 points in any of their last 6 meetings. Speaking of Campbell, he’s been lights out as a Big 12 underdog with a 28-11 ATS mark in that spot including 11-3 ATS when getting points at home in league play. This is a very dangerous game for Texas and we like Iowa State to stay within this number and have a shot at the upset.

#380 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State -120 over Washington, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - There is a reason that an undefeated top 5 team is an underdog in this game. They should be. Washington has been primed to get “upset’ for a good month now and we think this is where they go down. Washington is overvalued right now having only covered 1 of their last 6 games. In those 6 games they are -47 points to the spread so losing to the spread by an average of about 8 PPG and of their 10 wins, 6 have come by 10 points or less. The Huskies have also been outgained in 4 of their last 6 games and their defense is in a freefall allowing an average of 455 YPG over their last 5 games. Last week at home the struggled to beat Utah winning by a TD despite running 18 more offensive snaps and getting outgained 6.7 YPP to 6.1 YPP. On Saturday they get an Oregon State team that is simply lights out at home. In fact, since the start of the 2021 season, the Beavers have played 17 home games and covered 16 of those games! This year alone they beat 2 very good Pac 12 teams, UCLA and Utah, by double digits at home. We expect OSU to control the line of scrimmage here with the much better running game (9th nationally averaging 5.4 YPC) vs a Washington team that has been outrushed on a YPC basis in 5 straight games. The Beavers are playing very well right now having won 5 of their last 6 games with their only loss coming @ a red hot Arizona team by 3 points, a game OSU outgained Zona both on the ground and through the air. Despite their 8-2 record compared to Washington’s 10-0 record, the Beavers actually have a better YPG differential at +120 to the Huskies +93 YPG. We think this sets up very nicely for a dominant home team to get a win over an overvalued undefeated team. Take Oregon State.

#341/342 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 59.5 Points – North Carolina vs Clemson, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UNC’s defense has been brutal over the last month allowing at least 31 points in each of their last 4 games (minus their game vs FCS opponent Campbell. Last week they allowed 47 points (36 in regulation) to a Duke offense that has been flat out bad over the last month averaging just 16 PPG over their previous 5 games. Duke put up those numbers last week with their starting QB Leonard on the bench with an injury. Clemson’s offense has come alive the last 2 weeks with 73 total points and should have plenty of success vs a UNC defense that’s been poor (82nd total defense) to say the least. On the other side of the ball, the Heels have one of the best QB’s in college football in Drake Maye and the rank 8th nationally averaging 40 PPG and 3rd nationally in total offense putting up 520 YPG. Clemson’s defense has allowed 21 points or more in 4 straight games vs offense with an average rank of 54th in the country. The fact is Clemson hasn’t faced an offense as potent as UNC this season. The best offense they’ve faced in FSU (ranked 23rd) and they put up 31 points in Clemson on this team. Both teams are fast paced with UNC ranking 11th in seconds per play and Clemson ranking 39th so we expect plenty of offensive snaps in this game. The implied teams totals in this game based on the total and the 7 point spread in favor of Clemson are the Tigers 33 and the Tar Heels 26. Perfect weather expected in Clemson on Saturday and we expect both teams to top those numbers and we’re on the Over on Saturday in this ACC match up.

ASA top play on 10* #312 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15PM ET - Both teams are coming off huge letdown losses as the Bengals suffered a beat at home to the Texans, while the Ravens squandered a 14-point lead to the Browns in the 4th quarter and lost at home by 2. We expect Baltimore to bounce back here at home in this HUGE division game. Both teams have impressive ATS records when coming off a loss going back to 2020 with the Bengals 16-7-1 ATS while the Ravens are 14-7-1 ATS. Baltimore is 8-5 SU their last thirteen home games with an average +/- of +7PPG. Cincinnati hasn’t been the same team this season (5-4 with an ave +/- of minus -1.1PPG) after going 27-13 SU the previous two seasons. The Bengals averaged 353.8 total yards per game last season (11th) but are putting up just 301.7YPG this season which ranks 24th. In fact, the Bengals have been outgained in terms of Yards Per Play in every game this season but one. The Bengals defense has allowed 6.1YPP this season which is 31st in the league, only ahead of the Denver Broncos at 6.4YPP. In comparison, Baltimore’s defense is best in the league in this stat category allowing only 4.2YPP and giving up only 273 total YPG. The Ravens have been especially stingy in the Red Zone allowing just 34.62% (3rd) of opponent’s TD’s to be scored. Baltimore is averaging 5.7YPP on the season and score TD’s on 64.29% of their RZ attempts which is 4th best in the NFL. Baltimore outplayed the Bengals in the first meeting this season with +7 more first downs, 415YDS to 282YDS and a +1.0YPP advantage in their 3-point road win. Some may look at the dog in this rivalry, but the numbers tell us the Ravens have been much better on both sides of the football this season. Lay it!

#307/308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Buffalo vs Miami OH, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. Miami has been solid all season ranking in the top 25 in total defense and YPP allowed along with ranking 12th giving up just 17 PPG. They have held 7 straight opponents to 21 points or fewer and the only 2 teams that reached 21 points during that stretch were Toledo & WMU, the top 2 teams in the MAC in total offense. In their other 4 conference games (minus Toledo & WMU) the Redhawks have allowed a total of 19 points or less than 5 PPG. We don’t look for Buffalo’s offense to do much of anything on Wednesday night. Their only real successful offensive performance in MAC play this season was vs CMU who has the worst defense in the league. In their other 5 conference games, the Bulls have averaged only 14.8 PPG. Over the last 2 weeks Buffalo has faced Toledo and Ohio, the other 2 highest rated defenses in the conference along with Miami, and they scored 13 & 10 points in those games. For the season Buffalo ranks 109th in total offense and 128th in YPP. The Bulls defense struggled their first few games of the season but they’ve played very well over the last few months. Since MAC play started, the Bulls have allowed an average of just 17 PPG, 3rd best in the conference, and only Toledo (by far the best offense in the MAC) topped 24 points. The Redhawks offense is very slow paced (131st in seconds per play) and with backup QB Smith now under center, they’ve relied very heavily on the run which eats clock. In Smith’s 2 starts, he’s attempted a TOTAL of 28 passes while running the ball 86 times. The Redhawks offense ranks 97th in total offense at 345 YPG, however over their last 2 games since Smith has been the QB, they’ve averaged only 263 total yards. We’d be surprised if either team topped 21 points here so Under is our recommendation.

#305/306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54.5 Points – Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The MAC has a number of bad offenses this season, but these are not 2 of them. In league play WMU ranks 2nd in total offense and scoring while NIU ranks 3rd in total offense and scoring. The Huskies also lead the conference averaging almost 7 YPP in league games. The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in every MAC game with the exception of Ohio, and they’ve put up 83 points over their last 2 games alone. The problem has been their defense which ranks dead last in the MAC in YPG and YPP allowed and 11th (out of 12 teams) in PPG allowed. They’ve allowed at least 20 points in every conference game and even terrible offenses, EMU and Ball State, put up 21 and 24 points respectively. Even Iowa, who has the worst offense in the nation averaging 243 YPG (133rd) scored 49 points on this defense. NIU is coming off their worst offensive performance in conference play last week vs Ball State but 3 turnovers limited their opportunities. We expect them to bounce back here. Prior to their game vs the Cardinals, Northern had averaged 32 PPG their previous 5 MAC games. NIU’s overall defensive numbers are solid but they’ve played so many weak offenses in conference play. 5 of the 8 worst offenses in the nation on a YPP basis reside in the MAC. The Huskies have faced 2 of the top 4 offenses in the league this season, Toledo and CMU, and in those games they gave up 35 & 37 points. Now they face a WMU offense that is right there with those 2 teams on that side of the ball. The Broncos also excel and running the ball and they are facing a defense that ranks outside the top 100 at stopping the run. WMU is also the fastest paced team in the MAC and top 25 in the country in that stat. Lots of scoring opportunities should be available on Tuesday night and we grab the Over.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 47.5 Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills, 8:15 PM ET - We are going to stick with the Under trend on NFL Prime Time games when the Broncos take on the Bills Monday Night. NFL Unders have hit at 61% overall for the season and Prime Time games have been especially profitable for bettors at 22-7 this season. In the last four weeks the PT Unders are 11-1 and the SNF and MNF games are 16-3 Under. Denver has some bad overall defensive statistics for the season but one horrendous game against Miami has somewhat skewed those numbers. In their last three games the Broncos D has played well allowing 19 and 9-points to the Chiefs in two games and holding Green Bay to 17. Denver has also made a commitment to their running game with 137-rushing yards per game in their last three games which is 4th most in the NFL. Buffalo allows 4.9 yards per rush which is 30th most in the league so expect a heavy dose of the running game by Denver here which shortens the game. The Bills haven’t looked like the team that was expected to contend for a Super Bowl this season and they’ve seen their scoring dip in recent games. Buffalo is averaging just 22.3PPG in their last three games and 1-point scored for every 16.2 yards gained which is 18th in the NFL over that stretch of games. Buffalo games have totaled 45 or less points in 4 of their last five. Denver and their opponents have combined for 36 or less points in three straight. We will bet Under on MNF.

#262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Seahawks -6 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Let’s not overreact to the Seahawks blowout loss in Baltimore last week as the Ravens are playing at another level right now and might be the best team in the league at this point in time. Seattle has a great opportunity back at home against a Washington team basically in tank mode after gutting their defense at the trade deadline. Seattle is 3-1 SU at home this season with a pair of double digit wins over Arizona and Carolina and a 4-point win over Cleveland. The Seahawks have three huge games on deck with division showdowns versus the Rams and Niners with a road date in Dallas after that. That makes this game extremely important for their playoff lives. Washington has some of the worst defensive statistics in the league over the last four games and currently rank 28th in yards per game allowed, 29th in yards per play allowed (5.9), they can’t stop the run or the pass and give up 27.2PPG which is 30th. When it comes to offense the Commanders are nearly as bad ranking 23rd in offensive DVOA. Seattle is 11th in yards per play averaging 5.6 and have managed 311.8YPG despite facing 4 defenses that rank top 10 in yards allowed per game. Washington is coming off a low scoring close win over the Patriots but now travels to the West coast to face a much better Seahawks team off a loss. Hawks head coach Pete Carroll has been historically good off a loss with a cover rate of 62%. Lay it with Seattle here under a TD.

#247/248 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 45 Points - San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The 49ers started the season on fire offensively with 5 straight games of 30+ points. In their last three games though they’ve managed just 17 points in each game. They have seen a regression in their yards per play and total yards per game in that three-game span. On the season they have the 4th best Red Zone scoring percentage at 65.63% but in their last three games they’ve dropped to 55.56%. Jacksonville has won 5 straight games and have put up some points this season with the 10th highest scoring offense in the NFL at 24.1PPG. But a deeper dive inside the numbers shows a slightly different story as the Jags haven’t faced many defenses as good as the Niners. When the Jags faced a Chiefs team allowing 15.9PPG in September they managed just 9-points. San Francisco allows just 17.5PPG (4th) on the season and 5.2YPP which is 10th best in the NFL. The 49ers recently added another edge rusher in Chase Young and are coming off their worst defensive showing of the season in Cincinnati where they allowed 31-points. Jacksonville can also play defense with the 3rd overall ranked DVOA unit in the NFL. The Jaguars allow 79.2 rushing yards per game (4th) and 3.6 yards per rush (4th) along with an opponent’s completion percentage of 62.9% which is 11th best in the league. Jacksonville gives up just 19.5PPG which is 9th in the NFL. These two teams don’t typically play fast as the Jags rank 16th in plays per second, the 49er’s are last in the league in that stat category. NFL games tend to stay below the total when two teams come into the game with extra rest, which is the case here. Going back to 2018 the Under is 99-47-1 (68%) in this situation and it’s cashed 23 of 28 times this season. Some windy conditions in Jacksonville will also limit deep throws for both teams. The play here is UNDER the total.

#241 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indianapolis Colts -1 -120 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 9:30AM ET – Game being played in Germany - Obviously, a long travel situation for both teams as this game is being played in Deutsche Bank Park in Germany. The Colts offense is the 7th highest scoring in the league at 25.8PPG and this unit has topped 20+ points in ten straight games. Last week against Carolina the Colts had two pick 6’s by the defense and took a conservative approach with their gameplan and QB Minshew. Minshew had thrown 5 INT’s in three games prior to the Panther game so expect a heavy dose of the running game with Taylor and Moss. New England, particularly QB Mac Jones and the offense have been pathetic this season ranking 24th in DVOA, 27th in YPG gained, 28th in rushing YPG and 21st in passing YPG. The Pats are 31st in the league in scoring at 15PPG. New England doesn’t possess the weapons on offense to exploit the Colts weakness on defense which is their secondary that has been decimated by injuries this season. This is not your old New England Patriots. Since Tom Brady left New England in 2020 the Pats are 27-33 SU. QB Mac Jones is clearly not the answer with a league leading 9 INT’s this season and QBR of 40.3. As a dog he has been horrendous with a 3-16 SU/4-15 ATS record in his career. He has just one cover in his last 14 starts as an underdog. New England has some internal issues with players/coaches and owner/Belichick as rumors are starting to swirl about him getting fired. Favorites in overseas games are 32-10-1 SU and with this number being as low as it is we will back the Colts to get the win and cover.

#186 ASA PLAY ON 8* Oregon -15.5 over USC, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - USC’s mental state has to be in question entering this game. They had goals of getting to the College FB Playoff and winning the Pac 12. Their playoff hopes were dashed a few weeks ago with their 2nd loss of the season and last week their 52-42 home loss vs Washington ended their Pac 12 hopes. This team is in a prime position now to get rolled by Oregon who we feel is the best team in the conference and one of the top few teams in the country. We expect the Oregon offense to pretty much do whatever they want in this game vs a terrible USC defense. In their last 6 games, the Trojan defense has allowed 40+ points 5 times and the only team that didn’t get there was Utah whose offense ranks 93rd nationally and the Utes still got to 34 points. The Ducks lead the nation in scoring at 47 PPG and we have no doubt they’ll top 50 here and we wouldn’t be surprised if they put up a 60 burger. Last week Oregon rolled vs Cal 63-19 while USC was giving up 52 points to Washington. The Ducks offense has been unstoppable ranking #2 nationally in total offense, #3 in YPP, #1 in YPC, #4 in passing yards, #1 in completion percentage and the list goes on. This USC has struggled vs everyone they’ve faced this season and now they are taking the road to play the BEST offense they’ve seen this year. Oregon is obviously a tough place to play and the Ducks are 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in Eugene this year with an average margin of victory sitting at a ridiculous +42 points. That’s not their home point differential for the season folks, that’s their average winning margin at home! USC can score points but the difference here is Oregon actually has a very solid defense. They rank in the top 20 in scoring defense, total defense, YPP allowed, and rush defense. The Trojans have faced only 2 other defenses this year that rank in the top 30 and in those games vs Notre Dame & Utah, they scored 20 and 24 offensive points (minus defensive and special teams scores) and that won’t get close to getting it done in this game. These 2 teams have both played Cal & Utah within the last 3 weeks and Oregon won those games 63-19 and 35-6 respectively while USC came from 14 points down in the 4th quarter to beat Cal 50-49 and lost at home to Utah 34-32. Add in USC’s potential fragile mindset and this should be an easy Oregon win.

#228 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -2.5 over Fresno State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - Fresno is more than ripe to get upset in this game. There is a reason that the 8-1 Bulldogs (ranked 25th in the Coaches Poll) are a 1 point dog vs a San Jose State team that steps into this game with a 4-5 record. First off, San Jose State has played the tougher schedule with their losses coming at the hands for USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, and Boise State and those teams have a combined record of 35-12! Because of that tough early slate for the Spartans, they are still undervalued as we speak having covered 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve won 3 straight in blowout fashion, including 2 on the road, beating those 3 opponents by a combined score of 129 to 45 and outgaining those teams 1,370 to 853. They already have one of the top QB’s in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro (11,400 career passing yards and 81 TD’s) and now their running game is clicking on all cylinders with 727 yards over the last 3 games. Despite their losing record, the Spartans are +40 YPG, +0.5 YPP, and +50 point differential on the season. They are much better than their record. Fresno has only 1 loss but they are slipping right now and lucky to get by with their wins in recent weeks. They’ve now been outgained in 4 straight games and their QB Keene is nowhere close to 100% healthy with a knee issue. The Bulldogs are losing in the trenches getting outrushed in 4 straight games and not reaching 100 yards rushing in 2 of those contests. We were on Boise State last week @ Fresno and the Broncos had more first downs, outgained the Bulldogs BOTH on the ground and through the air. The huge turning point in that game was an FSU 95 yard kickoff return as time expired in the 1st half taking the wind out of Boise’s sails in the 37-30 game. Now they travel to San Jose and they catch the Spartans off a bye week and playing their best football of the season. We like SJSU to control this game in the trenches and win at home on Saturday night.

#195 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -2.5 over Missouri, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Tennessee should be fresh here coming off a 59-3 home blowout over UConn. The Vols were up 35-3 at half and they were able to get their starters plenty of rest in the 2nd half including QB Milton who only played in the 1st half. Meanwhile Mizzou was playing in a physical game @ Georgia, a game the Tigers lost 30-21. They had a bye week leading into their game vs UGA so they put 2 full weeks of prep and emotion into that game and now might be a bit flat here. We really like the Vols edge on both lines of scrimmage with the Tennessee offense averaging 228 YPG on the ground (3rd nationally) on 5.8 YPC (5th) while the UT defense allows just 97 YPG rushing (14th nationally) on 2.9 YPC (8th). The Tigers have been far from dominant at home despite their 5-1 mark as a host. The top 2 teams they’ve played here were LSU, who beat Missouri by 10, and Kansas State who lost on a 61 yard FG as time expired. In other home games the Tigers struggled to beat Middle Tennessee State by 4 and Memphis by 7. Mizzou QB Cook is very solid but we expect he’ll be under pressure again this week just as he was last week when he completed less than 50% of his passes vs UGA. The Tennessee front 7 is very good and they are top 30 in both QB sacks per game and sack percentage while the Mizzou offensive line is outside the top 45 in both of those stats. There is also a chance Cook’s #1 target WR Burden (960 yards receiving and 7 TD’s) may not play here as he has been banged up for weeks and was injured during the Georgia game last week. Burden is easily the Tigers top offensive weapon. On the season Tennessee is +147 YPG, +1.9 YPP differential, and +147 point differential. For the season Missouri is +89 YPG, +1.2 YPP, and +76 point differential. Tennessee is simply the better team, in a better situation, and with the line where it is they just have to win this game outright to most likely get a cover.

#127 ASA PLAY ON 8* Miami FL +14.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We think Miami will give FSU all they can handle here so we’re grabbing the hefty points. We’re getting some nice value here with the Canes coming off a loss @ NC State as nearly a TD favorite. Perhaps they were peaking ahead to this huge revenge game after getting walloped by FSU last season. Miami outgained NC State both on the ground and through the air in that loss but had 4 turnovers, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs at the NCSU 3 yard line. Miami is still a very solid 6-3 on the season with high level wins over Texas A&M & Clemson. The undefeated Seminoles have been on cruise control but they’ve faced only ONE opponent with a current winning record since coming from behind to beat Clemson in OT in late September. That opponent was Duke who has a winning record but is struggling big time (lost 3 of their last 5) with QB Leonard not 100%. These 2 teams have played very similar strength of schedules and their overall key stats are actually pretty close despite FSU being undefeated. Miami is +128 YPG with a +1.5 YPP differential and FSU’s numbers are +126 and +1.8. Miami is 10-3 ATS as an underdog in this series and the last 8 times they’ve been a dog on the road vs FSU, the Canes have covered 7 times. Since 1997, only twice as Florida State been favored by more than a 2 TDs vs their in state rival Miami. This is too high and there is nothing Miami would like better than to end their arch rivals run at the College FB Playoff. They’ll be more than ready here and we expect a tight game throughout. Take the points.

#119/120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 68 Points – North Texas vs SMU, Friday at 9 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with great offenses going at it here. UNT is the 8th fastest team in the country running a play every 21 seconds while SMU ranks 34th running a play ever 24 seconds. UNT averages 77 offensive plays per game (8th nationally) and SMU averages 75 (17th). Not only does each team run a lot of plays, they are both high level offenses ranking in the top 15 in total offense and both averaging 6.5 YPP. SMU averages 40 PPG and UNT averages 35 PPG. The Mustangs will be facing a Mean Green defense that flat out stinks, thus why they are 17 point favorites. The Green are allowing 470 YPG (132nd), 6.4 YPP (125th) and 37 PPG (129th). As bad as those numbers are, they’ve only faced ONE offense this season that is currently ranked in the top 45 nationally and that was Memphis who put up 45 on North Texas. We’re confident the Stangs top 40 in this one as that’s their average and this is the worst defense they’ve faced. Can UNT put points on the board? Our answer is yes. The SMU defense is highly ranked in a number of categories and they’ve allowed an average of only 16 PPG this season. However, they’ve played a weak slate of offenses this season. They’ve only faced 3 teams this year ranked inside the top 65 in total offense and those 3 (TCU, Oklahoma, and Rice) averaged 31 PPG vs this SMU defense. UNT offense is tough to slow down as they are very balanced averaging 181 YPG on the ground and over 300 through the air. They’ve put up at least 39 points in 5 of their last 8 games. Based on the 17 point spread, the projected score here is right around SMU 43, UNT 26 and we think both teams eclipse those numbers. Weather looks decent in the Dallas area on Friday night with light winds and we look for a shootout in this one.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 38.5 Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears, 8:10 PM ET - The Under trend continues on NFL games in general hitting above 60% on the season, especially the TV night games that are on a 22-7 Under streak. Carolina came out of their bye-week and was expected to be much better offensively, but it hasn’t translated to the field. The Panthers are averaging just 4.0YPP in their last three games and managed just 3.9YPP last week against a Colts defense that is allowing 5.2YPP on the year. The Panthers have put up 15 and 13-points in their last two games and average 17.5 on the season which ranks 26th. Chicago had found some success offensively with QB Fields but with QB Bagent they’ve regressed. Chicago is 19th in total yards per game, 17th in yards per play and score just 20.9PPG which ranks 19th. The Bears are 18th in Yards Per Point, Carolina is 24th. Chicago’s defense has allowed 20 or less points in 3 of their last five games. Carolina allowed 42-points to the Dolphins and Lions in their last four games, but those two offenses are far superior to this Bears unit.

#115/116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Virginia vs Louisville, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on the UVA – Georgia Tech Over last week which cashed but part of that handicap was how Cav QB Muskett had been playing well. That changes here as Muskett was injured (high ankle sprain) and will most likely miss this one on a short week. His replacement was freshman Colandrea who picked up some experience earlier in the season when Muskett was injured. Last week Colandrea entered early in the 1st quarter and was only able to put up 17 points vs a Georgia Tech defense that was rated 130th in total defense entering last week’s game. Now UVA faces a high level defense in Louisville who ranks in the top 15 nationally in total offense and scoring defense and the Cards stop unit is peaking allowing 3 total points over their last 2 games vs Duke and Va Tech. They’ve held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 20 points or less. Needless to say we think Virginia struggles big time on offense here. This should be a run heavy game for Louisville which eats clock. They are a big favorite here and when they get the lead they’ve shown they’ll grind it out on the ground. Last week they got in front of a solid Va Tech team and ran the ball 38 times and attempted only 13 passes in a game that ended with 40 total points. A week prior they faced Duke, got out in front and ran the ball 48 times with only 16 pass attempts in a game that ended with 23 total points. We see a similar situation here and we’re not comfortable laying 20+ points with Louisville, the Under should cash here if it plays out as we expect.

#111/112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Akron vs Miami Oh, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. Surprising to most because they are a 2-7 team, the Zips defense is pretty solid. They are in the top 50 nationally in total defense (342 YPG) and YPP defense (5.4). They’ve been outstanding vs the pass allowing opposing QB’s to complete only 54% of their pass attempts (8th best in the nation). They’ve been a bit unlucky defensively allowing 1 point for every 11.8 yards gained (average is around 1 for every 15 yards gained) so their overall numbers are better than their PPG allowed numbers. They are facing a Miami offense that ranks 90th in total offense and they are down to their 2nd string QB Smith who made his first start last week for the injured starter Gabbert. The Redhawks already don’t pass much but it will even be less with Smith under center who has completed less than 50% of his career attempts. Last week Miami attempted only 11 passes vs Ohio. It looks like they played well offensively with 30 points but they were very fortunate to get to that number with only 290 total yards. On the other side, Akron can’t score. They did last week vs a bad Kent team but prior to that the Zips had scored 14 or fewer points in 5 of their previous 6 games. They rank 129th for the season with just 17 PPG. They are facing a Miami defense that is very solid allowing only 19 PPG on the season. They have allowed only 61 points over their last 5 games including holding Toledo, easily the best offense in the league, to just 21 points a few weeks ago. Both teams are slow paced with Miami coming in at 128th and Akron 76th in plays per second so we don’t look for many possessions here. Defense rules the day and Under is the play.

#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 44 Points – Ohio vs Buffalo, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - The Ohio defense is among the best in the nation and Buffalo’s defense has played very well over the last month and a half. The Bobcats rank in the top 12 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, scoring defense, rush defense, and pass defense. They have held 7 of their 9 opponents this season to 20 points or less including limiting their foe to 10 points or less 4 times. That defensive dominance should continue on Tuesday night vs a Buffalo offense that averages just 324 total yards per game (110th nationally) on 4.5 YPP (127th). The Bulls do like to air it out offensively, however Ohio gives up very few explosive plays in the pass game allowing just 6.0 yards per pass attempt (14th nationally). On top of that, as of this writing on Monday, the Buffalo weather looks a little windy on Tuesday night (15 MPH). The Bulls overall defensive numbers aren’t great but much of that was their early struggles through the first 4 weeks of the season. Since entering MAC play, this Buffalo defense has allowed an average of 16.8 PPG. Last week they did give up 31 points to Toledo, easily the best offense in the MAC, however 7 of those points for the Rockets came on a kick return. The Ohio offense isn’t in the same stratosphere as Toledo ranking 96th in total offense and 102nd in YPP. The Bobcats also rank outside the top 100 in scoring and have been held to 20 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7 games. This should also be a slower paced game with Ohio ranking 105th in seconds per play and Buffalo 52nd. We don’t see either team topping 21 points in this game so Under is our call.

ASA top play 10* on: #475 LA Chargers -3.5 vs NY Jets, 8:15 PM ET - This line doesn’t make sense for a few key reasons. The Chargers are sitting at -3.5 points with heavy tickets and public support coming in on the Jets. So why won’t the oddsmakers move this line to -3? Someone knows something that the rest of us don’t. The Jets were coming off a bye prior to last week's game against the Giants so you would think they would’ve been prepared. Not so much as they managed just 251 total yards of offense and punted 11 times in the game. The Giants threw just 14 total passes for minus -9 yards. The Chargers looked good in their win over Chicago, albeit against the Bears. L.A. put up 352 total yards and 5.4YPP with QB Herbert completing 31 of 40 passes with 3 TD’s. The Jets will have a tough time trading points with this Chargers offense as QB Wilson/Jets average just 164 passing yards per game (31st) with a 58% completion percentage which is 30th in the league. New York as a home dog is 8-9 ATS their last seventeen with a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG. Bet the Chargers here.

#467/468 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points – Indianapolis vs Carolina, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We expect a lot of offensive snaps in this game as Indy is the fastest paced team in the NFL & Carolina 15th. Both in the top 6 in offensive snaps per game so plenty of opportunities to score here. Indy’s defense has been terrible over the last month – they’ve allowed 37, 39, and 38 points last 3 weeks and all 3 of those opponents (Jags, Browns, and Saints) rank in bottom half of NFL in offensive efficiency (YPP). On the other side of the ball, the Colts offense has been solid the last 3 games since QB Minshew took over for an injured Richardson. In the last 3 games Indianapolis has scored 85 points (28 PPG) and averaged around 400 YPG during that 3 game run. Carolina HC Reich gave up play calling to OC Brown and we expect some new wrinkles moving forward. Carolina QB Young played well last week with 71% completions and 235 yards passing in first win giving the Panthers some positive momentum. They only scored 15 points but had opportunities to score getting shut out on downs at the Houston 2 yard line and settling for 3 FG’s with 2 coming inside Houston’s 20 yard line. In this game we have the 30th and 32nd ranked scoring defenses here both allowing over 28 PPG. Colts games are averaging 54 total points this season and Panther games are averaging 46 total points, both higher than this current total of 44. Looks like perfect weather in Charlotte on Sunday with temps in the low 70s, light winds, and no rain. Over is the call.

#455/456 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 44 Points - Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Are you sick of all the Unders in the NFL this season? That won’t be the case in this game as we get an ole’ fashion shootout between the Ravens and Seahawks. Baltimore is 7th in scoring this season at 25.3PPG, Seattle is 11th at 24PPG. More importantly, the Ravens are 6th in yards per point offense while the Seahawks are 7th. It takes both teams just 13.9 yards gained to score 1-point. Both teams have impressive defensive numbers too, but those numbers are inflated due to the schedule they’ve faced. Let me rephrase that…the quarterbacks each team has faced. Take a look at Baltimore’s schedule and the QB’s they’ve gone against. Arizona/Dobbs, Titans/Tannehill, Steelers/Pickett, Browns/Thompson-Robinson, Colts/Minshew, Bengals/Burrows (injured at the time), Texans/Stroud. The only quality QB they’ve faced is Jared Goff and the Lions. The same can be said about the Seahawks when you look at their schedule. The only two good QB’s they’ve faced were Goff and Stafford and the Lions/Rams put up 31 and 30 points against this defense. Seattle and Geno Smith are capable of hitting a big play or two with an offense that is 7th in the league in yards per play (5.8) and yards per completion at 10.3. Baltimore is 9th in yards per play at 5.8YPP and 10th in yards per completion at 10.4. Baltimore owns the 4th most efficient offense in the NFL, the Seahawks are 8th. NFL games are averaging 43.6PPG but this game will not be average when it comes to offense. Bet Over.

#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -1.5 or -125 money line over Miami, Sunday at 9:30 AM – Game being played in Germany - Huge game with playoff implications in Germany on Sunday morning. These 2 teams currently are sitting in the #1 and #2 playoff spots in the AFC and this game could go a long way to deciding home field advantage. Both teams are 6-2 on the year but we like KC in this one coming off a rare loss. The Chiefs were rolled at division rival Denver last Sunday 24-9, however they outgained the Broncos by more than 1.0 YPP but had 5 turnovers in the game on 11 total drives. That isn’t going to get you a win in the NFL. On top of that, QB Mahomes had an illness and nearly didn’t play so he was nowhere near 100%. Now we get KC off an embarrassing performance and they are a very good bounce back team under Andy Reid. In fact, in his head coaching career, Reid’s teams are 21-10 ATS (22-9 SU) as a favorite of 7 or fewer points off a loss. Miami has beaten a bunch of bottom tier NFL teams so far this season (Giants, Patriots (twice), Panthers, etc…) but the 2 good teams they’ve faced have beat the Fins handily. The Bills rolled this team by 28 points and the Eagles topped them by 14. They rank #1 DVOA offensively, which isn’t surprising, but their defense and special teams both rank outside the top 20 DVOA. Speaking of DVOA, the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL that ranks inside the top 5 in overall, offense, defense, and special teams. KC has lost back to back games only ONCE since the start of the 2020 season and we don’t see that happening here. With this line set under a FG, we like the Chiefs on Sunday in Germany.

#425 ASA TOP PLAY ON Boise State +3 over Fresno State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - We are on the Broncos plus the points when they travel to Fresno to take on the Bulldogs. Fresno is a ‘false favorite’ here with their 7-1 SU record on the season. The Bulldogs average margin of victory is +14.4PPG but that number is inflated after a 53-0 win over Kent and 29-0 win over Arizona State. Kent is one of the worst teams in football. ASU was without their starting QB, in a new system and had 8 TO’s in 13 possessions. According to our rankings, Fresno State has played the 97th easiest schedule in college football. Boise State is a misleading 4-4 SU this season and could conceivably have 6 straight wins with two of their losses coming by 1-point and 3-points. In their last three games they beat a surging San Jose State team, lost on a last second pass to Colorado State and then beat Wyoming badly last week 32-7. The Broncos dominated a Wyoming team that Fresno recently played and lost to by 5-points. We tend to favor strong rushing teams and Boise fits the bill with a unit that averages 195-rushing YPG at 5.1YPC. Fresno boasts some strong rushing statistics, but they’ve faced a weak rushing schedule with everyone other than UNLV ranked 70th or worse. Last week FSU was outplayed by UNLV, outrushed 156-56 but managed to win by 7-points. Boise State as an underdog since 2021 is 5-2-1 ATS. The Broncos get revenge here after losing in the conference championship game a year ago to this Fresno team.

#383/384 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points – LSU vs Alabama, Saturday at 7:45 PM ET - Bama has a solid defense this year but not a high level Crimson Tide stop unit of past seasons. They have very good overall numbers but they haven’t faced a decent passing attack since Texas who put up 34 points on the Tide. The average rank of the pass offenses they’ve faces since Texas is 68th. On Saturday they face the #1 pass offense in the country led by Heisman candidate QB Jaylen Daniels who already has over 2,500 yards passing, 25 passing TD’s and over 500 yards rushing. LSU leads the nation in scoring at 47 PPG and they’ve topped 40 points in 6 of their last 7 games. The Tigers have topped 500 total yards in every game this year but one and that was their season opener vs Florida State and they had 459 yards in that one. The Bama defense has allowed 20+ points in each of the last 3 games vs teams ranked 43rd, 45th, and 73rd nationally in scoring offense. Now they face the best offense in the country. We’re confident LSU tops 30 in this game. So can the Crimson Tide keep up offensively? Absolutely. LSU’s defense is bad. It looks like the Tiger defense may be progressing allowing 0 points vs Army and 18 points vs Auburn in their last 2 games. Forget about it. Army’s offense is one dimensional and terrible scoring a grand total of 14 points over their last 3 games combined! Auburn’s offense can’t pass (119th) so they were unable to take advantage of LSU’s defensive weakness vs the pass (91st vs the pass and 109th in YPP allowed). Prior to that, in their previous 3 games, LSU allowed 31, 55, and 39 points. The Tigers are missing a few key pieces in their secondary this week which will make it very tough to slow down an Alabama offense that has been clicking through the air. Since getting inexplicably benched vs USF early this season, Tide QB Milroe has completed almost 70% of his passes with 8 TD’s and 3 interceptions many games vs defenses much better than this LSU stop unit. Last year these 2 totaled 63 points and in 3 of the last 4 seasons they’ve gotten to at least that number. This is a keep up game in our opinion. Both offenses will have tons of success and each will have to keep up on the scoreboard. Weather looks perfect in Tuscaloosa with temps around 60 degrees with almost no wind on Saturday night. Over is the play.

#380 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -3 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Great spot to fade Kansas who is coming off their biggest program win in decades topping Oklahoma at home last week 38-33. KU scored their game winning TD with 55 seconds remaining and it was storm the field time after that win. Now the Jayhawks head on the road where they are 0-3 ATS this season with their only outright win coming @ Nevada, one of the worst teams in CFB, by just 7 points. ISU is peaking right now. They’ve won and covered 4 of their last 5 games including a double digit home win over a very solid TCU team and a 7 point home win vs one of the hottest teams in the country, Oklahoma State. The Cyclones are actually tied atop the Big 12 with Oklahoma, Ok State, Texas, and KSU with a 4-1 record. Their offense is playing well scoring 27 or more in 4 of their last 5 and the Cyclones have a big edge defensively in this game. ISU sits in the top 25 in total defense and YPP allowed while Kansas ranks outside the top 100 in both of those key stats. KU thrives on their running game as they only attempt 25 passes per game (114th nationally) but they are facing an ISU defense that allows only 123 YPG rushing on 3.7 YPC. Iowa State’s running game struggled early in the season but over their last 3 they averaged nearly 170 YPG on the ground and they are facing a KU defense that ranks outside the top 100 in YPG allowed on the ground and YPC allowed. KU clinched bowl eligibility last week in their win vs OU and they were ranked for the first time EVER in the current BCS poll. Huge letdown here and ISU continues to play well and wins at home.

#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston College +3 over Syracuse, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - BC has quietly been playing very well over the last month plus with 4 straight wins. In those games their running game, now ranked 14th in the country, has been dominant, rolling up 246, 308, 321,and 203 yards rushing in those wins. That should continue vs a Syracuse team that is in a complete free fall. The Orange have lost 4 straight games and they’ve allowed an average of 210 YPG on the ground in those losses. Offensively in those games the Cuse put up 100, 92, 124, and 0 yards on the ground. Yes that’s correct in their most recent game vs Virginia Tech the Orange lost 38-10 and were outrushed 318 to 0! More concerning is they were coming off a bye leading into that Va Tech game last week and they were dominated 6.7 to 3.2 on a YPP basis. It looks like Syracuse might be done if they can’t show up with some heart and effort coming off a bye after 3 straight losses. They continue to be overvalued and have been destroyed ATS as well losing the last 4 to the number by a combined 86 points. BC QB Castellanos had an illness last week vs UConn and didn’t play very well but prior to that he had been really solid rushing for 342 yards with 6 rushing TD’s the previous 3 games. He’s also been solid passing the ball with 1,600 yards through the air and 11 TD’s. He’s going to be a big problem for this Cuse defense that has allowed at least 31 points in each of their last 4 games. The dog has covered 10 of the last 12 BC games dating back to last year and we’ll call for it again. We know this game is in Syracuse but the wrong team is favored in our opinion.

ASA top play 10* on: #310 Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Tennessee Titans, 8:15 PM ET - The NFL continues to give us these miserable Thursday night games and tonight certainly fits the bill with the 3-4 Titans and 4-3 Steelers. We are on the Steelers at home off a home loss. Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way, the Steelers have been outgained in every game this season. This isn’t as significant as you may think considering their schedule includes: 49ers, Browns, Ravens and Jaguars (combined 21-10 SU record). Pittsburgh has struggled offensively, ranking near the bottom of the league in most key categories but a healthy QB Trubisky should inject some life into this offense. Let’s face it, he can’t be worse than Kenny Pickett who has the 29th worst QB rating in the league, completing 61% of his attempts for just 1,330 total yards with 5 TD’s to 4 INT’s. The Titan’s defense is 22nd in yards per play allowed 20th in passing yards allowed per game and 27th in opposing QB’s completion percentage. Don’t be fooled by Tennessee’s newfound rookie QB Levis who had a few big passing plays which accounted for most of his 238 passing yards last week. We are betting he struggles here on a short week, playing in a hostile environment and facing a Steelers defense averaging 3.1 sacks per game (7th most in NFL). In the last ten years Pittsburgh has the 5th best home record in the NFL at 59-29-1 SU with an average margin of victory of +4.9PPG. We will lay the short number of -3 or less on Pittsburgh.

#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest +12.5 over Duke, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Duke’s offense has gone in the tank since the injury to QB Leonard and we see no way they should be laying 10+ points with that offense right now. Leonard is still playing but not close to 100% since his injury at the end of the Notre Dame game. Since that game, the Blue Devils have scored a total of 37 offensive points in 3 games and they’ve lost 2 of those 3 games. Because of his leg injury, Leonard has had his most positive attribute taken away and that is his running ability from the QB position. In the last 2 games he’s rushed for a total of 26 yards on 11 carries for 2.3 YPC. Prior to his injury, he averaged over 6.0 YPC. Wake’s offense is not great shakes either but they shouldn’t have to score much in this one to stay within this number. The Deacs lean on the running game and they run the ball a lot (42 attempts per game – 17th most nationally). Duke’s defensive weakness is vs the run where they rank 77th allowing 149 YPG. Offensively for the Blue Devils, they’ve really struggled to throw the ball especially now with Leonard banged up. They are 116th in YPG passing and they need to run the ball well to be successful offensively. The WF defense isn’t very good vs the pass but that shouldn’t hurt them here. The Deacs are solid vs the rush allowing opponents just 128 YPG on the ground on 3.9 YPC. Historically in this cross state rivalry, Duke has topped Wake Forest by double digits just ONCE since 2000. The projected score based on the spread and total is right around Duke 28-16. We just don’t see this Blue Devil offense that’s barely scored more than that in the last 3 games getting to that number. Wake keeps this close enough to cover.

#303 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -5 over Central Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This game opened with NIU as a 3 point favorite and has jumped to -5 and we agree with that move. We have the Huskies closer to a 7 point chalk in our power ratings so we still feel there is value on the road favorite. CMU has 2 MAC wins this year vs Akron and EMU and both were tight games with the Chippewas winning by 7 and 3 respectively. Those are 2 of the worst teams in the country both rated outside the top 115 in our power ratings. CMU’s 2 MAC losses came at the hands of Buffalo & Ball State, who are both ranked outside the top 100 and have a combined record of 5-11. NIU has played the much tougher MAC slate and has a record of 3-1 and they are very close to being undefeated in league play with their only loss coming by 2 points vs Toledo, the best team in the conference. The Huskies beat Ohio by 10 points as well who is rated as the 3rd best team in the MAC. Northern & CMU have faced 2 common opponents in league play (ECU & Akron) and while Central beat those 2 teams by a combined 10 points, Northern Illinois beat them by a combined 48 points. We have the advantage at QB and on defense in this game with Northern. Senior QB Lombardi is a veteran and in MAC play he’s completed over 63% of his passes in all 4 games with 5 TD’s and 0 interceptions. CMU starting QB Bauer, who was the back up to start the season, is completing 58% of his passes this season and on MAC play vs 4 very poor teams he has 4 TD’s and 6 interceptions. Defensively NIU ranks in the top 25 nationally in YPG & YPP allowed. Central Michigan ranks 91st and 122nd in those 2 categories. On the season NIU has a +0.4 YPP differential, +32 YPG differential, and a +24 point differential. CMU has a -1.4 YPP differential, -70 YPG differential, and a -62 point differential. The Huskies by at least a TD in this one.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 47 POINTS LV Raiders at Detroit Lions, 8:20 PM ET - We are betting the NFL TV night game Under trend will continue here with this non-conference showdown between the Raiders and Lions. On that note, heading into this past weekend, Unders were 22-11 this season when non-conference teams squared off. These two teams are two of the slower paced teams in the NFL with LV running a play every 28.8 seconds (21st), while the Lions run a play every 29.5 seconds (27th). Scoring is down in the NFL this season at 43.4PPG with Unders cashing at roughly 60%. The Raiders have the second worst offense in terms of efficiency and haven’t had any success running the ball or throwing it. LV is 27th in total yards per game, last in rushing yards per game and yards per rush. It will be tough to run in this game against a Lions defense that is 2nd in rushing yards allowed a 9th in yards per rush attempt. Detroit has the superior offense in this matchup as the Lions rank top 11 in total yards per game, yards per play and rushing yards per game. They also rank 5th in passing yards and 8th in completion percentage. The Raiders aren’t great at stopping the run so expect the Lions to focus on that aspect of their offense. We don’t expect the Lions to put QB Goff in jeopardy with Raider’s edge rusher Maxx Crosby (6.5 sacks) on the field which will limit explosive plays by Detroit. Las Vegas is scoring just 16PPG and only one of their games this season has finished with more points than this total. Detroit games have finished with less than 46 total points in four of their seven games.

#271/272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - These 2 played a few weeks ago in KC and the final score was Chiefs 19, Broncos 8. We see a similar type game on Sunday. Bad weather is expected in Denver with high probability of snow and high temps in the 20’s. Not great for a solid offensive output. In their game on October 12th neither team lit it up offensively with KC putting up 389 total yards and Denver just 197. The KC defense has been high level this season not allowing a single opponent to top 21 points. They rank in the top 10 in total defense and YPP allowed and they are giving up only 15 PPG (2nd in the NFL). Their overall defense ranks 5th DVOA and 6th EPA. They’ll be facing a Denver offense that has scored 21 or less in 5 of their 7 games this season. Their last 2 games the Broncos have scored 27 total points vs KC & Green Bay. The Denver defense ranks dead last in many categories, however much of that is skewed due to their game @ Miami where they allowed 70 points, over 700 total yards, and 10.2 YPP. If we subtract their game vs Miami, the Broncos are allowing 24 PPG which is much better than their current number of 31 PPG allowed. They are trending up as well allowing 36 total points in the last 2 games vs KC & GB. We don’t expect many offensive snaps here with 2 of the slower paced teams in the NFL – KC ranks 25th in plays per second and Denver 23rd. Under is the play.

#262 ASA PLAY ON 8* Miami Dolphins -9.5 vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Patriots are coming off a big win over the Bills last week but will come crashing back down to earth against this Dolphins team. The Pats are 2-5 SU this season and 3-7 SU their last ten games. One of their losses earlier this season was at home to this Dolphins team 17-24 as a +1 point home underdog. Miami dominated that game by more than the final score as they averaged 6.4 yards per play compared to 4.1YPP for the Pats. The interesting note to this game is that the Patriots defensive scheme in the first meeting featured their best end rusher in Judon and best cover corner in Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez was used to blanket Dolphins WR Hill in the first meeting and held the All-Pro to 40 yards on 5 receptions. Without those two defenders we expect the #1 rated Miami offense to explode for a huge number in this one. Miami is 1st in yards per game at 462, 1st in yards per play at 7.9, 1st in rushing and 1st in passing. Wait, did we mention they average 34.3PPG which is also the highest number in the NFL. New England ranks in the bottom third in the NFL in most key offensive categories including scoring at 14.4PPG. Miami is coming off an embarrassing loss on national TV to the Eagles and will pound their AFC East rival by 2 or more TD’s this weekend.

#253 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jags -2 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - How the Steelers have a 4-2 record we have no idea. They’ve been outgained in every game this season. They are just the 2nd team since 1970 with a winning record through 6 games after being outgained in all 6. As you might expect based on those numbers, Pittsburgh is 26th in the NFL in YPP differential and every team below them has a losing record. The offense is bad ranking 31st in total offense, 28th in rush offense, and 25th in pass offense. They have topped 300 yards of total offense just once this season and that was facing a poor Raider defense. The Steelers are 2nd in the NFL in turnover margin which has helped their cause but can’t be counted on from week to week. The Jags are rolling right now. They’ve won 4 straight games both SU & ATS and they’ve had 10 days to get ready for this one after beating the Saints on the road last Thursday night. Jacksonville should control the ground game here as Pittsburgh’s defense weakness is stopping the run. They rank 28th in the NFL allowing 142 YPG on the ground and Jax is putting up 114 YPG rushing. On the flip side, the Steelers have been terrible on the ground barely rushing for 80 YPG. Pittsburgh is averaging 61.0 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponent, 31st in the league while Jacksonville is averaging 32.9 more rushing yards per game than their opponent, eighth in the league. Jags QB Lawrence is a bit banged up but has had extra time as we mentioned and practiced this week so we expect him to play. Big edge at QB and in the running game for Jacksonville so we’ll lay it.

#193 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State -14.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wisconsin’s going to have all kinds of trouble moving the ball and putting points in the board in this game. Versus the 2 best defenses they’ve faced this season, Iowa & Rutgers, they scored a total of 23 offensive points in those 2 games while averaging just 4.4 YPP. Last week vs a below average Illinois team UW was down 21-7 entering the 4th quarter and scored 18 unanswered points to pick up a tight win. Their back up QB Locke is now under center for Wisconsin after starter Mordecai broke his hand in the Iowa game. While Locke was solid in his first start last week vs an Illinois defense that ranks 81st in total defense. Now they face the best defense they’ve seen this season, but a longshot in our opinion, ranking 2nd in YPP allowed (3.8 YPP) and 3rd nationally in scoring defense (10.5 PPG allowed). The Bucks held a very good PSU offense, who was averaging 41 PPG entering last week’s game in Columbus, to only 12 points (with their final TD coming with 29 seconds left in the game) on just 3.5 YPP. They held PSU’s rushing attack to just 1.9 YPC and if they duplicate that on Saturday, Wisconsin is in huge trouble. On the other side OSU had some decent success last week scoring 20 points vs a high level PSU stop unit we have rated much better than Wisconsin’s. The Badgers defense is way down from previous editions with no big playmakers in the front 7. Their run defense ranks 52nd nationally after sitting in the top 10 each of the previous 4 seasons. We’re not sure they’ll be able to hold up in the trenches on either side of the ball. The OSU offense is starting to find their rhythm under new QB McCord as they average 6.6 YPP (25th nationally) and prior to last week’s game vs PSU they had scored at least 35 points in 4 of their previous 5 games. Prior to topping Penn State by 8, the Buckeyes had won each of their previous 3 Big 10 games by at least 20 points. Lay it.

#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida +14.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The bottom line here is that Georgia has been overvalued in the betting markets all season long, hence the 1-5-1 ATS record to date. The Bulldogs have played an extremely soft schedule without a quality win on their resume. This team was bound to see a regression this season after heavy losses to the NFL and the loss of their O-coordinator. Georgia has impressive offensive/defensive statistics, ranking top 12 in many of the main categories but again, who have they faced? Not one of the offenses the Bulldogs have faced will be as good as this Gator offense. The best yards per game offense the Dawgs have faced was UAB, the other five FBS teams rank 79th or worst in total O. The same can be said about the misleading Georgia offensive statistics. They have faced four defenses that rank 84th or worse, three of which are 119th or worse. Now the Bulldogs will face a Florida defense that is 36th in total D allowing 345YPG. Florida has a top 10 rushing D in terms of success rate and can limit the Dawgs rushing attack without committing more players to the box. The Gators have two quality foes on their resume as they faced Utah in the opening game of the season and also hosted Tennessee. Florida is in the upper third statistically in most offensive categories and thrives in their passing game. That may be surprising with former Wisconsin QB Mertz under center. But Mertz has played well for the Gators with 12 TD’s to just 2 INT’s this season while completing 76% of his attempts. Mertz is currently the top rated QB in the SEC when it comes to 3rd downs. Mertz shouldn’t face too much pressure either as the Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 in pass rush. Georgia will be without their best offensive weapon in TE Bowers which will make things difficult for QB Beck playing his first big away from home (neutral site game). With two losses this is the Gators Super Bowl, and we like them to keep this close throughout.

#190 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State -17 over Houston, Saturday at 12 PM ET - KSU is destroying everyone at home this season. They just beat a solid TCU team 41-3 last week at home almost 600 yards to 300 for TCU. The Wildcats are 21-9 ATS last 30 home games and 4-0 SU at home this year winning by an average score of 43-12. Houston is in a rough situational spot here. They are off a huge home game vs Texas which was considered by Houston fans (and players) as their biggest game of the season. It has been 20+ years since the Cougars were able to take on the in state big boy but now that they have moved to the Big 12, this was their one shot before Texas moves on to the SEC. Texas (-23.5 on the road) jumped out to a 21-0 lead scoring TD’s on 3 of their first 4 possessions and it looked like a blowout. The Horns lost their starting QB Ewers to an injury in the third quarter and Houston made a valiant comeback before losing 31-24. That game took a huge toll physically and emotionally on this Houston team and now they have to go on the road and play a very good team in a tough venue. The Cougars are 0-2 SU on the road this year including a loss @ Rice and 21 point loss @ Texas Tech. On top of that, this is a terrible match up for Houston. The Wildcats are very physical in the trenches on both sides of the ball and Houston is not. KSU ranks 4th nationally rushing at 233 YPG and Houston is 92nd vs the run so the Cats should run wild on Saturday. KSU ran for 343 yards last week in a TCU defense that ranked 38th nationally stopping the run coming into the game allowing only 126 YPG rushing. Now the Wildcats face a defense that can’t stop the run, as we mentioned, and might be out of gas. On the flip side, Houston is a poor running team ranking 108th rushing for just 117 YPG and KSU only allows 108 YPG rushing so the Cats should absolutely control the line of scrimmage here which is key. Houston will be a one dimensional offense a very good KSU defense. These teams have played 2 common opponents this season and we have drastically different results. KSU beat TCU 41-3 and Texas Tech 38-21 and outgained those 2 by a combined 242 yards. Houston lost to both TCU 36-13 and Texas Tech 49-28 and they were outgained in those 2 games by a combined 210 yards. Houston gets rolled in this one.

#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 43.5 or 44 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Buffalo Bills, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 teams have combined to play 13 games this season and only 4 of those have gone Over the total. We expect another low scoring game on Thursday night. Tampa games are averaging just 34 total points this season and Buffalo games are averaging 45 total points. The Bucs offense has been below average all season long ranking 23rd or lower in total offense, scoring offense, and YPP average. They have scored 13 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games. We expect them to struggle vs a Buffalo defense that entered last week’s game vs New England ranked 12th in total defense but played poorly. They allowed a poor New England offense to average over 6.6 YPP and score 29 points. It was the worst performance from a Buffalo defense that has been solid for the most part all season including holding a dynamic Miami offense to just 20 points. We expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder on that side of the ball Thursday night. The Bills offense has been trending down since their win over Miami. Since scoring 48 vs the Fins, this offense has put up 20, 14, and 25 points the last 3 weeks. Even last week when they scored 25 points, 2 of those TD’s came on their final 2 possessions of the game when they were playing catch up. Prior to their final 2 offensive possessions, the Bills had 10 points and only 230 total yards. They’ve be facing a decent Tampa defense that’s rated higher than 2 of Buffalo’s last 3 opponents. The Bills are one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL, 30th in plays per second, and TB ranks middle of the pack in that category. NFL prime time Unders (Sunday night, Monday night, and Thursday night games) have been fantastic with a 133-85-4 spanning the last 5+ years (61% Unders). It looks a bit windy in Buffalo on Thursday evening with sustained winds around 10 MPH and gusts up to 20 MPH. Under is the play on Thursday.

#113/114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 63.5 Points – Georgia State vs Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET - When these 2 met last season, they total was 67.5 and they scored 74 points on nearly 1,000 total yards of offense. We look for a similar situation on Thursday night. Georgia Southern has been very solid offensively this season averaging 32 PPG but even better at home where they put up 40 PPG on 6.0 YPP. The Eagles are a fast paced team (22nd in the country) and they average a whopping 81 plays per game which is 2nd in the nation. Their strength on offense is throwing the ball with their QB Brin who has already thrown for 2100 yards on the season. They rank 12th nationally averaging 313 YPG passing and that plays directly into the weakness off the Georgia State defense which ranks 122nd in pass defense. Georgia State is more balanced but very solid running the ball (177 YPG) as well as passing (233 YPG) with veteran QB Grainger running the show. The Panthers are coming off a lower scoring game vs Louisiana as they upset the Rajin’ Cajuns 20-17. That final has kept this total lower than it should be in our opinion. Their total in last week’s game was set at 62 as well despite the fact that when comparing Louisiana to this week’s opponent (Georgia Southern) the Cajuns rank lower in total offense and higher in total defense along with being a much slower paced team. The only other game that Georgia State struggled offensively was vs Troy who’s defense ranks 8th in the nation. The Panthers scored at least 30 points in each of their other 5 games this season. We look for a high possession, fast paced game here similar to last year when the 2 teams ran 79 and 77 offensive snaps. The weather looks perfect in Statesboro with temps in the upper 50’s and light winds under 5 MPH. High scoring here.

#101 ASA TOP PLAY ON New Mexico State +2.5 over Louisiana Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We like to take a strong look at underdogs that have a better rushing attack and we expect to control the trenches. That’s what we have here. La Tech is a poor rushing team that has been outgained on the ground in every game but one this season. If we take out their game vs FCS opponent Northwestern State, the Bulldogs only average 109 YPG rushing (108th nationally) on only 3.5 YPC. On the other side of the ball their rush defense is poor as well ranking 119th in the country allowing 200 YPG on the ground 5.0 YPC. That’s despite facing a fairly easy slate of rush offenses including 3 teams outside the top 100 in rushing. La Tech has faced 2 teams ranked inside the top 50 in rushing this year, Nebraska and North Texas, and those 2 teams rolled up 312 and 249 yards on the ground respectively. Tuesday they host a NM State team that ranks 2nd in the nation averaging 6.1 yards per carry and puts up over 200 YPG on the ground. Despite their success on the ground, the Aggies are not one dimensional as they pass for over 235 YPG as well and average a whopping 7.0 YPP which is 5th in the nation behind only Washington, Oregon, LSU, and USC. The Aggies record is 5-3 yet they’ve outgained all but 1 opponent (Liberty who is 7-0) on a YPP basis. NM State has a YPP differential of +1.3 and they are well coached under former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill. Their defense isn’t great, but it’s respectable allowing 5.7 YPP. Since their bye in late September, NMSU has won 3 in a row by an average margin of +17 PPG covering all 3. La Tech has been a home favorite only 7 times since the start of the 2020 season and they have covered only 2 of those games. During that same time span they have played 15 home games (FBS only) and they have a SU record of 7-8 in those games. We like the dog to win this game outright.