ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - Minnesota didn’t play ‘great’ in Game 3 and still won by 5-points. Would we be shocked if Anthony Edwards had another huge game with 36-point – no! Can Julius Randall have another triple-double as he did in Game 3 – yes! What we don’t see happening is Jimmy Butler going off for 33-points or Jonathan Kuminga scoring 30. In fact, Kuminga has been buried on Steve Kerr’s bench with four DNP’s against Houston, and now he’s expected to pick up the Steph Curry scoring slack two games in a row. Not likely. The Warriors offensive Net Rating in this series is 101.4, one of the worst numbers of all the playoff teams and significantly lower than their season average of 114.2. Minnesota is 6th in Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 113.7 ONR and 3rd defensively at 106.2. The Warriors defense hasn’t been as good in the playoffs either with a DNR of 110.7. The Warriors will miss Curry again tonight and the Wolves are very capable of winning this road game by margin. Minnesota’s season road record of 27-18 SU is slightly better than GST’s 27-19 SU home record. The T’Wolves have the deeper, more talented roster and we expect a convincing road win here.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 231.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers, 8pm ET - In this series we’ve seen total points scored of 233, 239 and 230 total points. In the first two games the Pacers shot above expectations against a Cavs defense that is one of the best in the league. In Game 3 the Pacers had a ‘normal’ shooting game and managed just 104 points. Cleveland was much better defensively with Mobley and Hunter back in the line up after missing Game 2. Indiana head coach Carlisle will have a better game plan in place to contain Donovan Mitchell who went off for 43-points last game and put the pressure squarely on other role players to pick up the scoring burden. The Pacers don’t have great overall season long defensive numbers on the season but since the All-Star break they rank 8th in Defensive Net Rating and have been much better on that end of the court. The pace of play has not been as fast as you might think and the combined field goal attempts per game is only slightly higher than the leagues average during the regular season. As both teams get to know the others tendencies more we like lower scoring games. This one stays UNDER.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30pm ET - I know this sounds like a broken record but OKC is the best team in the NBA who have had two poor shooting games in this series and now trail 1-2 to Denver. The Thunder have a penchant for blowout wins with 54 regular season wins coming by double-digits which makes covering this margin acceptable. Oklahoma City has lost twice in a row just 3 times all season long and we don’t expect them to hit just 26% from beyond the arc in Game 4 as they did in Game 3. The Thunder with he 7th best shooting team in the NBA is season and 6th in 3PT% at 36.9%. We are also expecting a big bounce back game by Shai Gilgeous Alexander who scored just 18-points in the last game on 7 of 22 shooting. SGA is likely the MVP (should be Jokic but voter fatigue will get SGA the award) averaging over 32ppg on the season. Denver was 22nd in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season and has the 6th worst number in that stat category during the entire playoffs. We like OKC big today.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -5.5 vs NY Knicks, 3:30pm ET - It’s only natural that the Knicks relax a little bit in this game with a shocking 2-0 lead in this series after two upset wins in Boston. Let’s not forget, the Knicks also played an physical 6-game series in the first round with Detroit and 5 of their last six games have been on the road. It’s no secret why Boston lost both games of this series with terrible shooting being the culprit. The Celts shot under 36% overall in both and just 25% in both games from deep, missing 75 total 3-pointers. Those numbers are not indicative of this Boston team as they shot 46% overall on the season and 36.6% from the 3PT line, 10th best in the NBA. New York has the 26th worst 3PT% defense in the NBA this season allowing 36.1% and the 25th worst overall FG% D at 47%. In other words, this recent poor shooting trend is not the norm so we are betting in a return to what we’ve seen all season long from the C’s. Prior to the two losses to start this series the Celtics had won 7 of the last eight meetings with NY, covering 6 of those. Thibs and the Knicks are 1-3 ATS as a home dog this season while Boston is on a 14-4 ATS run when coming off two consecutive losses. The number is inflated for a reason. We trust the team that has been one of the very best in the league the past two seasons to come out on top in this one.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -5.5 at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm ET - The one team in the NBA this season that was equally as strong on the road as they were at home is the OKC Thunder. Oklahoma City was 38-8 SU on the road this season (25-15-1 ATS) with an average plus/minus of +10.1ppg, best in the league. OKC boasts a 73-16 straight-up (SU) record and a 56-29-4 against-the-spread (ATS) mark this season, including covering the spread by an average of 9.2 points per game in their last five road games against Denver. The Thunder’s elite defense is the separator between these two teams. OKC leads the NBA with 11.11 steals per game and a 1.075 defensive efficiency rating, should exploit Denver’s 12.04 turnovers per game (25th in the league). In comparison, the Nuggets DEFF during the regular season was 22nd in the league allowing 1.161PPP. OKC was clearly rusty in G1 of this series after a long layoff leading up to that game. They then bounced back with a 43-point win in G2 which is a better indicator of what this team is really capable of. This line isn’t exactly what it should be but it’s also not inflated more than we are comfortable with. The Clippers were favored by 2-points on this court in the previous series with Denver. We like the visitor to get a big road win here.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -10.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30pm ET - We were on the wrong side in Game 1 of this series as the Wolves (Anthony Edwards) didn’t show up and lost home court advantage. It was a solid situation as the Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest giving them a significant scheduling edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets.  As we mentioned in yesterday’s winner on OKC, the days off for these teams has been a negative thus far in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Much like the Thunder last night, we expect Minnesota to bounce back tonight with a big home win. The Wolves have been a strong bet at home, going 11-3 straight-up (SU) in their last 14 home games. Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the 6th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.115-points per possession. They also allow the 4th fewest made 3-pointers per game and hold opponents to 45.8% shooting, 7th lowest number in the league. The Warriors lost Steph Curry midway through the last game, and he won’t be in uniform tonight for Game 2. This Golden State team lacks depth and losing his 22.6ppg and floor spacing he provides is going to be too much for the Warriors to overcome. Wolves All-Star guard Anthony Edwards had a horrible Game 1 and was called out by his coach. I expect him to rebound with a big night in Game 2. We’ve seen Kerr sit his starters early in games when his team is down big and if the Wolves can build a big lead he’ll rest his main guys and be happy with a 1-1 split on the road.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -10 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET - May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and a current ATS (against the spread) record of 55-26-4 (67%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-8 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +15.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP.  Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC in Game 1 of this series. The Nuggets shocked the NBA world with a Game 1 upset despite trailing in the game for roughly 80% of the minutes. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. The rest advantage clearly wasn’t a positive for any of the favorites thus far in the playoffs with the chalks going 0-5 SU/ATS in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Now that the Thunder have a game under their belt we expect them to be sharper in this one. OKC shot just 42% in G1, well below their season average of 47.8% which was 7th best in the NBA this season. OKC is 13-2 SU/ 8-6-1 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- in those games of +12.2ppg.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 9:30 pm ET - The Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest since their series ended on April 30, giving them a significant edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets, concluding with a Game 7 win on Sunday. Winners of a Game 7 historically win Game 1 of the next series only 31% of the time, and the Warriors, an older team, must now travel to Minneapolis on short rest. Minnesota has been a strong bet at home, going 11-2 straight-up (SU) in their last thirteen home game. They’re also 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games against Pacific Division teams like the Warriors. While Golden State won three of four regular-season meetings, the games were close, with two of the four decided by fewer than six points. The Timberwolves’ lone win on December 6, 2024 (107-90), saw them cover a similar spread, and they’ve since improved, particularly with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo finding their rhythm post-All-Star break (Randle: 18.5 PPG, 38% 3PT; DiVincenzo: 45% 3PT). Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the NBA’s No. 8 scoring defense (108.8 PPG allowed) and 6th rated 3-point defense (35.3% opponent 3PT%), which is critical against a Warriors team reliant on Stephen Curry’s outside shooting. Minnesota’s size advantage is a major factor. The Warriors struggled against Houston’s two-big lineups (Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams), being out-rebounded even in their Game 7 win. With Gobert, Randle, and Reid, the Timberwolves can dominate the glass and limit Golden State’s spacing, especially if Steve Kerr avoids playing Kevon Looney to preserve offensive flow. Minnesota ranked 15th in rebounds per game (44.3) this season, compared to the Lakers’ 26th (42.4), whom they outrebounded consistently in Round 1. This physical edge supports a double-digit win by the home team.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -9 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and an ATS (against the spread) record of 55-25-4 (68%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-7 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +16.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP. Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC. Denver’s bench averaged just 20.6 points per game in the Clippers series, and was one of the lowest scoring benches in the regular season. Denver’s starters logged heavy minutes (Jokic 41.2 MPG, Murray 41.8 MPG). Facing a rested Thunder team that swept Memphis and hasn’t played since April 26, 2025, Denver’s fatigue could be a factor, particularly in Game 1. OKC’s relentless pace and defensive intensity are likely to exploit Denver’s tired legs and lack of depth, and lead to a blowout. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. Bet this one before the line goes up.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 vs. Indiana Pacers (Sunday, May 4, 2025) - The Cavs have been dominant at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse this season, boasting a 23-19-1 ATS record with an impressive average point differential of +11.7 PPG, the second-highest margin of victory in the NBA. In contrast, the Pacers have struggled on the road, posting a 20-24 ATS record away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Recent head-to-head meetings are less indicative of this matchup’s outcome, as the Cavaliers rested key starters in their last two games against Indiana, having already secured the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency, while the Pacers sit at 9th. Defensively, Cleveland is 9th, outperforming Indiana’s 13th-ranked defensive efficiency. Cleveland’s ability to dominate at home, combined with their statistical advantages and the Pacers’ road struggles, supports a confident prediction that the Cavaliers will cover the -7.5 spread in a comfortable victory.

ASA play on Golden State Warriors -5 vs. Houston Rockets, 9pm ET - It’s not going out on a limb to say the Warriors Vets, Curry, Butler and Green will be ready for this rematch after the humiliating loss in Houston the other night. Kerr and the Warriors were blown out early and ended up sitting their starters midway through the 3rd quarter. The extra rest will certainly help, but it’s the motivation factor we are counting on. GST won both home games against the Rockets in this series and have won 3 of the last four clashes on this floor. Warriors are 22-13 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average margin of victory of +4.2ppg. We are betting the Rocket see a regression in their shooting after hitting 55% overall last game and 43% from Deep. The advantage of playoff experience shows up here.

ASA NBA play on Pistons -115 vs. NY Knicks, 7:30pm ET - The Detroit Pistons, down 3-2, host the Knicks in an elimination Game 6 tonight (May 1, 2025). New York has won two close games in Detroit (118-116, 94-93) thus far in the series, but we expect that to change tonight. Let’s not forget that in the regular season Detroit won 3 of 4 against the Knicks, with Cade Cunningham averaging 30.8 points. Cunningham’s averaging 26.1 points and 9.1 assists in this series, and the Knicks haven’t found a way to slow him down. The other big edge in favor of the Pistons is rebounding. The Pistons have the 4th best Rebound % in the playoffs at 52.8 compared to the Knicks at 47.2%. With both teams have an identical EFG% of 50.8%, the team with 2nd chance opportunities holds a big advantage. The Knicks had a solid road record this season and would typically have the advantage with the best player on the floor with Brunson. But Brunson isn’t 100% and the case can be made that Cunningham is the best player in this series. The supporting cast for Detroit (Harris, Hardaway Jr, Duren, Schroder and Beasley) have proven they are not afraid of the big moment (unlike the Bucks young players) and should rise to the occasion at home tonight.

ASA NBA play on Golden State Warriors +4 at Houston Rockets, 7:30pm ET - The biggest concern for the Rockets heading into the postseason was their offense and who can consistently make shots in crunch time. Houston has the 12th rated Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 107.4 with an EFG% of 49.6% which ranks 14th. Granted, some of those struggles can be attributed to a very good Warriors defense. Golden State is 7th in Net Rating in the playoffs, the Rockets are 10th. I’ll be the first to admit I like the Rockets to win this series, and they may win tonight but whatever points are available are worth the grab because even if they win it’s going to be close. Looking back at the 9 games between these two teams this season we find they’ve all been relatively tight with only two being decided by double-digits. With Houston struggling to score (under 95 points in 3 of four games), we will grab the points with Golden State. Warriors 11-7 ATS as a road dog this season.

ASA NBA play on the LA Clippers -120 at Denver Nuggets, 10pm ET Tuesday Game 5 - At first glance this has been a very even series tied 2-2 with 3 of the four games decided by 3-points or less. In reality it hasn’t been as close as you think. The Cavs and Thunder swept their series 4-0 and have the best overall Net Rating in the playoffs. The Clippers are actually 3rd in Net Rating at +9.4 and have the 3rd best EFG% at 55.4%. In comparison, the Nuggets are 14th in NR at -9.4 and have an EFG% of 47.6% which is 13th out of 16 playoff teams. As this series wears on the Nuggets lack of depth becomes a major concern. Denver has four starters averaging over 40-minutes per game and are getting worn out by the Clippers deeper rotations. Denver is 2-3 as a home dog this season with a negative differential of -4.7ppg in that role. Historically the Nuggets are fantastic at home but to end the regular season and this playoff series has seen them go on a 3-14 ATS streak on their home court. There is a reason the Clippers are favored here. Lay it with this L.A. team.

ASA NBA play on OVER 210.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat, 7:30pm ET The Cavs have put up 121, 121 and 124 points in the three games of this series against the Heat and they’ve done that without Garland for one game and Donovan Mitchell scoring just 13 points. Clearly the Heat just don’t match up with the Cavs and doesn’t have any answers on how to slow them down. Cleveland has an Offensive Rating of 134.1 against Miami and an EFG% of 61.5%, both best of all playoff teams. Those numbers aren’t overly shocking as the Cavs ranked #1 in both of those stat categories during the regular season too. The Heat produced 100 and 112 in the first two games of this series, then hit just 42% from the field in Game 3 and scored just 87-points. It’s unlikely that the Heat score just 23 or less points in four quarters again like they did last time out. In all 6 meetings between these two teams this season they have produced 211 or more points. Bet Over.

ASA NBA play of Indiana Pacers +4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks (Game 4, April 27 9:30pm ET) - Indiana has been the better overall team in this series and the Game 3 loss simply came down to them missing shots because the Bucks defense wasn’t any better than they were in Games 1 & 2. We expect the Pacers to bounce back in a big way and we will not be shocked if they win this game outright, rather easily. Indiana is 17-13-2 ATS after a loss (+2.9 PPG differential) and went 12-3 SU in their final 15 regular-season games with a +7.5 PPG differential (6th). The Pacers’ 9th rated offense (115.4 nONR ) and 7th-ranked fast-break points (13.7 PPG) exploit Milwaukee’s 23rd-ranked defensive net rating and 22nd-ranked transition defense. The Pacers 51.9% and 49% shooting in Games 1 and 2 wins, despite a 43% dip in Game 3, signals a likely up-tick in Game 4. Milwaukee’s Game 3 win (117-101) hinged on Gary Trent Jr.’s unsustainable 37 points (9-of-12 3s), far above his 13.7 PPG average. With Damian Lillard not 100%, the Bucks’ depth is thin, as seen in Game 1 when non-Giannis starters scored 14 points. Expect Pascal Siakam (25.0 PPG) and Tyrese Haliburton (9.3 APG) to leverage rebounding and pace for a close game or even pull the upset. The Pacers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss and primed for this road victory.

ASA NBA play on: Houston Rockets +3.5 vs. Golden State Warriors (Game 3, Saturday, 8:30pm ET) - Despite the Warriors’ strong 25-17 SU home record this season, they are 13-18-1 ATS mark as home favorites (41.9%) and have been a play against in that role. The Rockets, with a 23-17 straight-up road record and a +2.7 points per game road differential (6th in the NBA), have proven they can compete away from home. After a loss in Game 1 of this series, the Rockets bounced back with a solid all-around performance in a Game 2 win. Houston won 109-94, led by Jalen Green’s 38 points (8-of-18 from three) and Şengün’s 17 points and 16 rebounds. The Rockets’ rebounding/size advantage was evident, as they outrebounded Golden State 47-33 in Game 2, including 11 offensive rebounds that led to 18 second-chance points. Houston’s league-leading offensive rebounding rate (over 50% when Şengün and Steven Adams play together) gives them a significant edge in generating extra possessions. Houston’s perimeter defense, which allows the second-fewest three-point attempts (31.2) and makes (11.3) per game, is tailor-made to limit Golden State’s three-point-heavy offense. Houston is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at Chase Center. Golden State, conversely, is just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 home playoff games as favorites. The Rockets can exploit Golden State’s 22nd-ranked defensive rebounding (69.8% rate) and Butler’s potential absence in this game (listed as questionable as of this writing).

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -3 vs. LA Lakers, 9:30pm ET - The Timberwolves dominated Game 1 with a 117-95 blowout, the Lakers responded in Game 2 with a 94-85 win. Even in their Game 2 loss, the Wolves kept the game close despite shooting just 38% overall and 20% from beyond the arc.  Minnesota’s home record is solid at 26-15 this season with an average – of +7.1ppg and they’re 23-13 straight-up as home favorites, +7.3ppg. The Wolves defense, ranked 5th in the league (109.3 points allowed per game) and 11th in Defensive Net rating. In comparison the Lakers ranked 23rd in DNR and gave up 112ppg in the regular season.  LA’s reliance on Luka Dončić (37 points in Game 1, 31 in Game 2) and LeBron James (21 points in Game 2) is clear, but their supporting cast has been inconsistent—non-Dončić players shot just 1-for-13 from three in Game 2. We are betting the Wolves have a much better shooting night at home against this Lakers D and don’t see the Lakers shooting well above their expectations, which is what it will take to get this road win. Lay it!

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +1.5 vs NY Knicks Game 3 Thursday, 7pm ET - I’m betting the Pistons take Game 3 against the Knicks on Thursday. They’ve outplayed New York in 6 of 8 quarters this series, splitting the first two games, with a 123-112 loss in Game 1 and a 100-94 win in Game 2. Detroit’s been a top-10 team on both ends of the court since February, led by Cade Cunningham (26.1 points, 9.1 assists, 6.1 rebounds), who had 33 points and 12 rebounds in Game 2. They’ve also won 3 of 4 regular-season matchups and out-rebounded the Knicks 48-34 in Game 2. The Pistons grabbed 12 offensive boards in G2 which led to 13-second chance points.  The Knicks are just 15-13 against winning teams this season and 6-16 against top-10 point differential teams like Detroit (ninth). With home-court energy, we like the young Pistons over the Knicks in Game 3.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -3 vs. Golden State Warriors Game 2 9:30pm ET - I’m backing the Houston Rockets to cover the -3 spread against the Golden State Warriors in Game 2 on Wednesday night at Toyota Center. After a 95-85 loss in Game 1, the Rockets are poised to bounce back at home, where they’ve been dominant. Houston went 30-11 at home during the regular season, covering the spread in 24 of those games, and they’re 7-2 against the spread as a home favorite of 3+ points. The Rockets shot 45.1% overall and 35% from Deep on their home court this season but managed just 39% and 21% in Game 1. Their elite defense (fourth-best in the NBA, allowing 110.8 points per 100 possessions) can stifle the Warriors’ offense, which scored 95 points in Game 1 despite Steph Curry’s 31-point outburst. The Rockets also dominated the offensive glass (22-6 advantage in Game 1) and lead the league with 18.1 second-chance points per game, a key edge against Golden State’s smaller lineups. With Jalen Green (21 points per game) and Fred VanVleet (14 points) due for better shooting nights after a combined 7-for-33 in Game 1, Houston should cover the -3 spread.

NBA play on: LA Lakers -5.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:00 PM ET - Line has moved from 4 to 5.5 since we wrote this game but we like LA to win by double digits. The Lakers were embarrassed at home in Game 1 and are in a prime situation to bounce back at home. Minnesota owned Game 1, leading by as many as 27 points behind Anthony Edwards’ 32 points and 21 made 3’s as a team. The Lakers’ offense, which ranked 7th in offensive rating (116.8) post-trade deadline, should rebound at home in this must-win situation. The Lakers shot just 40% overall from the field, well below their season average of 47.8% (7th). Doncic did his job with 37 points but needs to get his teammates more involved (1 assist). LeBron was pretty much a non-factor with 19 points and 5 rebounds, but expect a much better stat line from the Vet in Game 2. The Lakers went 31-10 at home in the regular season, covering this minus-4 spread in 16 of their last 20 home games. The Timberwolves’ top-10 offense (115.7 Net Rating) is legit,but their Game 1 outburst of 50% from 3 is unlikely to happen again, as they shot 37.8% from deep this season. The home team won and covered all four meetings in the regular season. Our model projects a double-digit Lakers win.

ASA NBA Pacers -3.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:00 PM ET - No Zig-Zag here as the Pacers are the better/deeper team. Indiana dominated Game 1, never trailing and building a 28-point lead before easing to a 117-98 victory that was closer than the game felt. The Pacers shot a scorching 61% through three quarters and locked down Milwaukee’s shooters, holding them to 24.3% from three. Giannis Antetokounmpo balled out with 36 points and 12 rebounds, but the Bucks’ other starters were brutal, scraping together just 14 points on 5-of-20 shooting (25%). Even if Damian Lillard returns from his blood clot absence, his conditioning after a month off won’t be playoff-sharp. Indiana’s been great at home, boasting a 15-3 SU record post-All-Star break and a 5-1 SU mark in their last six home games against Milwaukee. Riding a +7.3 Net Rating over their final 15 regular-season games, the Pacers’ deep lineup, led by Pascal Siakam (25 points) and Myles Turner (19 points), overwhelmed Milwaukee’s thin roster. Indiana’s fast-paced, transition-heavy attack (4th in the NBA) exploits the Bucks’ mediocre transition defense (18th). Our model projects a 118-110 Pacers win, comfortably covering the -3.5 spread.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220.5 Detroit Pistons at NY Knicks, 7:30 pm ET - The Knicks and Pistons have met four times in the 2024-25 regular season, averaging 230.5 combined points per game. Their most recent clash, Game 1 of their playoff series, ended with a 123-112 Knicks win, totaling 235 points. Even their lowest-scoring matchup this year hit 221 points (115-106), a Pistons win on April 10th. Over their last ten head-to-head games, they’ve gone over 220 points 100% of the time, with one of the two teams scoring 117 or more points in 8 of ten. In Game 1 of this series, the Knicks offense looked like the unit that ranked 5th in Offensive Net Rating this season (117.3), on 53% shooting overall and 38% from Deep. A healthy Jalen Brunson (34 points in Game 1) has a massive impact on the Knicks offense and Karl-Anthony Towns (23 points, 11 rebounds) is also capable of putting up huge numbers. Detroit, meanwhile, has been no slouch offensively, averaging 112 PPG over their last ten games of the regular season. Cade Cunningham (21 points, 12 assists in Game 1) and Tobias Harris (25 points) can keep pace versus a Knicks team that is not as good defensively as past Thibodeau coached teams. The Pistons scored 112 in the opener of this series and that was with a 0-21 drought against the Knicks in the 4th quarter. Both teams should play at a decent pace again (99 possessions each in G1), and with another game at 56.4 EFG% or better we should see a total in the mid-220’s. Our betting model is projecting 224.3 total points.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -115 vs Golden State Warriors, 9:30pm ET - The Rockets, as the No. 2 seed with a 52-30 record, have been dominant at home (29-12) and are coming off a 15-2 stretch to close the season, ranking top-four in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Their defense, led by Amen Thompson, has stifled Stephen Curry before—holding him to just 3 points on 1-of-10 shooting in their April 6 win. The big advantage the Rockets will have in this game is offensive rebounding (1st) and 2nd chance points (1st). The Warriors won their play-in game against the Grizzlies but gave up a whopping 26 second-chance points. With home-court advantage and a chip on their shoulder, Houston should cover the -1 spread in a home win. Grab the Rockets

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -12.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7pm ET - We like the Cavs big over the Heat on Sunday. Miami has elite home statistics and Miami’s likely fatigued after two huge emotional road wins in Chicago then Atlanta. Cleveland boasts a 34-7 SU record at home with a +11.5 PPG differential, the second-highest in the NBA. Their efficiency stats are stellar: a +9.2 net rating (3rd), 121.0 offensive rating (1st), and 55.7% EFG% (1st), with a top-tier defense allowing 109.6 points per 100 possessions (6th). Cleveland is well rested here after having the luxury of sitting starters the final week of the season with the #1 seed locked up in the Eastern Conference. The Heat, coming off draining road games in Chicago and Atlanta, and also playing their 5th road game in their last six total. Miami’s offense struggles with a 112.4 offensive rating (21st) and 54.4.1% eFG% (19th), while their +1.2 PPG differential and 18-23-1 ATS road record are subpar. Cleveland was recently a -14.5 point home favorite against the Bulls who rate similarly to the Heat and the Cavs won that game by 22. Cleveland was also recently -10.5 point chalk at home against the Knicks and they won by 19. Miami stepped up and got two big wins against teams that had sub .500 records. Now they get one of the three best teams in the NBA with a massive rest advantage and at home. It’s a blowout.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -13 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 1pm ET - We like the Oklahoma City Thunder (-13.5) to dominate the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1 on April 20, 2025, at home. OKC’s league-best net rating (+12.7) and defensive rating (106.6) fuel their +15.2 ppg home differential and NBA-high 54 double-digit wins. They swept Memphis 4-0 this season by an average of 16.5 points. The Grizzlies, fatigued from emotional play-in games against Golden State and Dallas, have seen their defense slip, ranking 13th in defensive net rating (115.7) over their last 15 games. Memphis has issues taking care of the basketball ranking 28th in turnovers per game at 15.6 (28th). OKC averages the fewest TO’s per game at 11.5 and force the most TO’s in the NBA at 16.8. We are not typically fans of laying chalk like this, but we’ll make an exception here.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 at LA Lakers, 8:30PM ET - The Wolves’ 24-17 road record (+2.9 PPG) and efficiency advantages (116.6 PPP offense, 111.5 PPP defense) give them an edge over the Lakers’ 8-7 recent form and weaker metrics (115.9 PPP offense, 114.7 PPP defense). Minnesota’s 11-4 SU run with a +9.8ppg average differential has them playing at an elite level. The Wolves are led by Anthony Edwards (27.4 PPG), and have complimentary pieces with Randle, Gobert and Conley. Granted the Lakers have Luka and LeBron, but the supporting cast isn’t as deep as this T’Wolves roster. The big difference in this game will be the defenses. The Wolves have the much better defense (Minn 6th in DEFF, Lakers 15th in DEFF) which makes them live underdog in this price range. Despite the Lakers’ home strength (31-10 SU), and public betting (heavy % on LA), the line has trickled down slightly, telling us where the smart money is going. The Wolves are 7-5 SU, 8-3-1 ATS as a dog of +5 or fewer points this season. Despite the Lakers impressive home court record their season, their average margin of victory at home is just +4.8ppg. In what shapes up to be a tight game from start to finish we like the underdog and the points with Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +7 at NY Knicks, 6pm ET - The Pistons have been a different beast since January with some of the best overall statistics in the NBA. From January 1 onward, they played 37 games, finishing with a 23-14 record—a 62% win rate. They averaged 116.8 points per game while holding opponents to 113.2, giving them a +3.6 point differential. Their offensive rating sat at 115.2 (13th in the league), and their defensive rating was 111.8 (9th). Cade Cunningham has been the engine, averaging 27.4 points, 9.3 assists, and 6.2 rebounds against all teams since January, while shooting 36.1% from deep. Against the Knicks specifically, he’s been a nightmare, dropping 30.8 points, 8.3 assists, and 5 rebounds per game across the season series, including a 36-point, 10-assist outburst on January 13. Now, let’s look at the Knicks’ struggles against playoff-caliber teams this season. They went a dismal 6-16 against teams with top-10 point differentials, including 0-8 against the East’s top two seeds, Cleveland and Boston, and 4-8 against the West’s top six. Their last win against a team with a better record than them was back on February 3 against the Rockets—over two months ago. The Pistons, since mid-December, have the ninth-best point differential in the league, meaning they qualify as one of those “good teams” the Knicks struggle with. New York’s offense is legit, ranking fifth in offensive rating at 117.3, but their defense (113.3, 13th) has been exposed by dynamic guards like Cunningham. Jalen Brunson, averaging 28.3 points and 7.8 assists against Detroit, is coming off an ankle injury that sidelined him for 15 games late in the season, and he might not be at his playoff best yet. Detroit has veteran leadership with Harris and Hardaway Jr and won’t be intimidated by the venue, especially since two of three wins against the Knicks came at Madison Square Garden.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220 Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies, 9:30 pm ET - Dallas is coming off an unexpected great shooting night in Sacramento hitting 49% overall and 50% from Deep, coasting to 120-points and the win. Obviously didn’t see that coming. The 120 they scored could have been much more, but they took their foot off the gas late and we don’t see them having that option here. More to come. Memphis basically fumbled their game away against the Warriors the other night which finished with 237 total points. Memphis shot 49% overall and 46% from beyond the arc against an outstanding Warriors defense. Now they face a Dallas D that was 20th in Defensive Efficiency this season. Memphis’ league-leading pace of 103.1 possessions per game, paired with Dallas’ respectable 99.2 (14th), sets the stage for a fast-paced, high-possession game. Historically, these teams have combined for some higher scoring games with six straight meetings of 223 or more points, including 229 in their April 13 regular season finale when the Over/Under was 228.5—eight points higher than tonight’s game. Memphis’ potent offense (121.6 points per game, 3rd in efficiency) and shaky defense (15th) coupled with Dallas’ scoring (114.4 points) and defensive lapses (115.2 allowed) make for a high scoring game. Dallas owned a 28-14-1 Over record on the road this season and have gone Over in 15 of their last 20 games. Memphis has gone Over in 56.6% of their games this season, including 3 of their last 4.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 10pm ET - It seemed these two teams were literally trying to give the season away down the final stretch with both going 6-9 SU their last 15 games. A closer look and the Kings were actually better statistically with a negative Net Rating of -1.6 compared to the Mavs -7.3. In recent games the Kings are 4-2 SU but the two losses came against the Nuggets and Clippers who are playing well right now. Dallas is 2-4 SU in their last six games and the two wins were against the Hawks by 2-points and the Raptors. Three of the four losses in that stretch were blowouts by Memphis 97-132, the Lakers 97-112, and the Clippers twice by 31 and 23-points. The Mavericks can have the best player on the floor if Anthony Davis shows up, but the Kings have the next three best players in Sabonis, LaVine and DeRozan. Sacramento has won all 3 meetings with the Mavs this season and I expect it to be a 4-0 sweep after Wednesday.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls -113 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30pm ET - We are on the Bulls here at home over the pretender Heat. Despite Miami’s slightly better season-long efficiency differential, the Bulls have been the superior team since early March, posting a 14-5 straight-up (SU) record since March 6, including two convincing wins over Miami. Eight of Chicago’s last 14 victories came against current playoff teams, which shows the level of play this team is currently at. In contrast, Miami has struggled, going 8-14 SU since March 5, with only three wins against playoff-bound teams. Over the last 15 games, both teams have comparable offensive and defensive net ratings, but Chicago has faced a significantly tougher schedule, adding weight to their performance. The Bulls are 5-1 SU in their last six home games, winning by an average margin of +10.5 points per game. Miami, meanwhile, has a subpar 17-23 SU road record this season, with an average loss margin of -0.8 points per game. A key factor is Miami’s reliance on three-point shooting, which faces a stiff challenge against Chicago’s elite perimeter defense, ranked second in the NBA, allowing just 34.4% from beyond the arc. Given the Bulls’ recent dominance, home-court advantage, and defensive matchup, backing Chicago is the way to go in this Play-in game.

ASA NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies +7 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - This won’t be a popular bet, but the value clearly lies with the Grizzlies in this one. Memphis has played well with a 4-2 SU record in their last six games. They suffered two straight losses to Minnesota and Denver but were in a tough situation in both games. Against the Wolves they had just lost starter Jaylen Wells the game before in a horrific fall and injury which rattled the team chemistry. They then had to travel to Denver without rest and lost to a surging Nuggets team. They rested a few starters in their season finale against the Mavs and yet won convincingly. They will be fresh for this game with the extra rest. In this current 6-game stretch the Grizzlies have the 6th best Net Rating in the NBA at +4.7. These teams recently met in Golden State with the Grizzlies dominating the majority of the game before losing 125-134. Golden State is 23-7 SU with Jimmy Butler but just average against the spread in their last 23 games at 10-11-2 ATS. The Warriors are 3-4 SU their last seven home games with an average +/- of +0.1ppg. Memphis on the road is 4-5 SU in their last nine away games but their average differential in those games is just -0.7ppg. Steph Curry may not be 100% in this game with a sore thumb and if he isn’t hitting 3’s the Warriors will not only have a tough time covering but winning outright.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +5.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30pm ET - This is a case of good offense, bad defense against bad offense and good defense. In the last 15 games the Hawks have the 4th best Offensive Net rating in the league at 121.4 compared to the Magic’s ONR of 114.1 which ranks 19th. On the flip side though, in that same 15-game stretch, the Magic rank 1st in Defensive Net rating at 108.1. Atlanta is 20th in DNR at 116.4. Even though the Hawks defense isn’t going to magically change and be great in this game, we trust their offense. We can’t say the same thing about Orlando who will be great defensively, but we don’t trust their offense. The Magic rank 27th in shooting at 44.5% overall, 30th in 3PT% at 31.8%. Orlando ranks 29th in EFG% at 51% for the season which is second to last in the NBA. This has been a tight season series with each team winning 2 of the four clashes. Those four games were decided by 7, 6, 6 and 12-points. Orlando doesn’t have much of a home crowd and were 21-19-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of -2.1ppg. Atlanta was 23-18 ATS on the road this season with an average +/- of -0.9ppg. We expect a tight game from start to finish and Trae Young/Hawks can easily pull the upset.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +4 at Golden State Warriors, 3:30 pm ET - The Clippers are quietly flying under the radar right now but this team is playing at an extremely high level right now with a healthy roster. Over the past 15 games the Clippers have the best Net Rating in the NBA at +16.2. They rank 1st in both Offensive and Defensive Net rating with a 13-2 SU record. Those wins for the Clippers have come by a wide margin too with an average +/- in those 15 games of +15.4. They are 5-1 SU their last six road games with an average MOV of +12.2ppg. Golden State has played very well with the addition of Jimmy Butler but even their numbers don’t compare with the Clippers current run. Golden State is 9th in Net Rating at +6.5 over their last 15 games with a 10-5 SU record. The Warriors haven’t been unbeatable at home either with a 4-3 record their last seven at home with an average MOV in those games of +1.3ppg. Both teams have a ton to play for as a win here keeps them out of the playin field. We expect a very tight game and like the edge the Clippers clearly have with the Warriors with a 3-0 record against them this season. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -5.5 vs. the LA Lakers, 3:30pm ET - The Lakers are sitting every impactful player on the roster as they are locked into the 3 seed in the West which makes this essentially a throw away game for them. Porland on the other hand has been eliminated from the playoffs for a while now but also have no reason to tank in the final game of the season. The young roster of the Blazers should be up for this game at home against the brand-name Lakers. The Blazers have lost two straight overall and 3 of four at home but the three losses at home all came against the Warriors, Cavs and Celtics. Just how bad will the Lakers lineup be today…they will probably start Bronny, who isn’t even a good G-league player. Lay the points with the Blazers.

ASA NBA play Denver Nuggets -9 at Houston Rockets, 3:30pm ET - We know one thing for sure in this game…the Nuggets will play to win. Denver is in a must-win situation here as a loss could send them to the playin tournament, whereas a win can get them home court in the first round and the #4 seed. The Rockets are locked into the #2 seed and have sat everyone important the last two games so why would Udoka play his starters here and jeopardize their health? The Rockets reserves have been horrendous defensively the past two games allowing 134 and 140 to the two Los Angeles teams. The Clippers shot 53% overall and 51% from Deep, the Lakers shot 61% and 51% against the Rockets second unit. Today the Rockets face the best shooting team in the league of the Nuggets who hit 50.6% overall and 37.6% from the 3PT line (6th best). Granted this is an inflated line with the Nuggets on the road laying nearly double-digits but we at least know they’ll play hard and have to bet the Rockets rest everyone, even though their starters have not been released for this game yet.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs Memphis Grizzlies, 9pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as they battle for better positioning in the Western Conference. Memphis is at a scheduling disadvantage here having played a monster game last night against the T’Wolves. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back, but the 3rd game in four nights for the Grizz. Memphis has been surprisingly good when playing without rest, but this will be in altitude in Denver. Ironically both teams are considered to be contenders in the West and both recently fired their head coaches. Denver is off a win in Sacramento on Wednesday and looked much better after 4 straight losses. The Nugs are 25-15 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.7ppg. Denver clearly has a match up advantage here as they’ve won 8 of the last ten meetings with the Grizz including 5 straight home wins. Lay it with Denver.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +11.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30pm ET - Somebody forgot to tell the Raptors that their season was over with. This young roster continues to play hard with a 6-3 SU record in their last nine games. The biggest indicator that this team hasn’t quit is their defensive statistics. The Raptors have the 3rd best Defensive Rating over the past 15 games, 1st in the last ten. The offensive numbers aren’t great, but they don’t have to be against a Mavs defense that is 18th in opponents FG% defense, 21st defending the 3-point line. Even with their season on the line in recent weeks this Mavs D ranks 16th in the league in DNR over the past 10 games. Dallas was recently in a must-win situation against a similar Nets team at home and favored by 10-points. They lost that game outright. In fact, Dallas is 0-3 ATS their last three games when favored by -6.5 or more points. Toronto is on a 4-1 ATS winning streak on the road and we trust they’ll compete against the Mavs tonight.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 228 NY Knicks at Detroit Pistons, 7pm ET - This game should have a playoff like atmosphere with two teams that sit 3rd (Knicks) and 6th (Pistons) in the Eastern Conference. If the playoffs started today, this would be the first round matchup. Detroit has consistently been one of the top 10 Defensive Efficiency teams in the NBA all season long, currently allowing 1.125-points per possession, 9th best number in the league. New York hasn’t been as good defensively this season ranking 13th in DEFF but in their last five games they’ve been significantly better allowing just 1.096ppp. This game features contrasting styles of play as the Piston rank 7th in pace of play, the Knicks though are 26th. The Pistons offense has stalled in recent games with 104 or less points in 3 of their last five games. Detroit’s Offensive Efficiency in that 5-game stretch I 19th in the NBA. The Knicks are trying to jell with the return of Brunson and have had some offensive struggles with 112 or less points in 4 of their last six games. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in EFG% in their last five games with the Knicks 15th, the Pistons are dead-last or 30th.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 8:10pm ET - This is an interesting line considering the Bulls were +5 in Miami in early March, which should have them favored here, but yet they find themselves a home dog. Chicago did have a game last night against Cleveland, but the Bulls rested 103 of their 117-points per game with White, Giddy, Vucevic, Huerter and Ball all sitting in preparation for this game. This game has huge playoff implications with these two teams sitting 9th and 10th in the Eastern Conference with identical 36-43 records. The winner will have the leg-up in gaining in home court for that 1 game play scenario. Miami is 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 1-2 in their last three games. Chicago is also 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 3-1 in their last four games with the loss last night in Cleveland. In each team's last 15 games the Bulls have the 9th best Net Rating at +4.5, the Heat are 13th at +2.6. Miami has better overall defensive statistics for the season, but the Bulls Defensive Net rating over their last 15 games of 113.3 is 12th best in the league compared to Miami at 20th. We are betting value here with the home team Bulls.

ASA play on LA Clippers -12.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 10:40pm ET - The Clippers are hot right now, having won 14 of 17, while covering 12 of their last 13 and 6 of their last 7. Los Angeles has also covered 9 of their last twelve at home. The Spurs' longshot playoff hopes have ended after losing seven of their last eight games. Just how good are the Clippers playing right now you ask? LA has the 2nd best Net rating in the NBA at +15.0 in their last five games with a 4-1 SU record. In their last 10 games they are +15.7 in Net rating with an 8-2 record and an average plus/minus of +15.0ppg. San Antonio is 3-7 SU in their last ten games with a minus -6.0ppg differential. Five of the Spurs’ last seven losses have come by double-digits. The Clippers are in a heated race for a better playoff position, and they have 3 HUGE games on deck against other playoff teams which makes this game a high priority. Lay the points.

ASA play on NY Knicks -115 vs. Boston Celtics, 7:30pm ET - The betting markets are indicating the Knicks are the side to be on tonight with more money and tickets being bet on Boston, yet the line has moved from them being favored to the underdog. The Celtics have nothing to play for down the stretch with the #2 seed locked up in the Eastern Conference. Getting everyone healthy is the number one priority for the C’s as they look to win back-to-back Championships. Both teams are 4-1 in their last five games with Boston has a slight advantage in Net rating at +11.9 compared to the Knicks at +9.0. Boston typically enjoys a huge advantage over their opponents with their 3-point shooting (1st in 3PM) but the Knicks allow the 10th fewest made 3PT’ers. The Knicks are the 4th best shooting team in the league at 48.8% and hit 37% of their 3-pointers (8th) so the Celtics can’t outgun them in a shootout. With the line movement on this game we are betting Boston is sitting some starters. Back the Knicks at home.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:10pm ET - Both teams have plenty to play for with playoff positioning on the line. Denver is the more desperate though as they could essentially fall all the way to 8th in the West and be in the play in games. Obviously a top 4 seed assures them of home court in the first round which is critical. Denver has the best home court in the NBA dating back to the start of the 2022 season with a 106-33 SU record. They’ve won those games by an average of +8.1ppg. While we are at it, the Nuggets are also 63-29 SU off a loss dating back to 2022. The Nugs have lost 3 in a row but two of those came against the Wolves and Warriors who are both surging in the West. On paper it looks like Indiana is coming alive for a strong postseason push but the numbers are a bit deceiving. The Pacers have been at home for 8 of their last ten games and 5 of those came against a few of the worst teams in the NBA (Utah, Charlotte, Nets 2x, and Wizards). Indiana has been average on the road this season with an 18-20 SU record, 17-22 ATS. The offensive and defensive numbers are pretty similar for each team and both have key injuries with Siakam out for the Pacers and Murray out for Denver. Historically, Denver has dominated the Pacers with 9 straight wins and given the circumstances we like them to make it 10 in a row by a big margin.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns +9.5 at NY Knicks, 7:10pm ET - The Knicks are in a tough scheduling situation here as they are coming off a game in Atlanta yesterday and have a HUGE game on deck against the Celtics. New York is basically locked into the 3 seed in the East barring a disastrous finish by them and a miraculous one by the Pacers. Phoenix on the other hand is in full-blown desperation time right now sitting 11th in West, two games behind the Kings. New York has been terrible this season when playing without rest with a 2-11 ATS record. Largely due to coach Thibs short rotation which he has been rightly criticized for in the past. The Knicks have a negative differential of minus -5.5ppg when playing the second night of a back-to-back. New York is 19-18-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of plus +7.1ppg. The Suns have lost 5 straight games but two of those came against the Celtics, one versus the Bucks and one each to Houston and Minnesota. Phoenix is the 8th best overall shooting team in the NBA at 48% and rank 3rd in 3PT% at 38.3%. The Knicks defense isn’t what it used to be, ranking 23rd in opponents FG% and 27th in 3PT% D. Granted, the Suns defensive numbers look eerily similar to the Knicks as does New York’s offense compared to the Suns, but there isn’t a big enough discrepancy to lay nearly double-digits. Phoenix is 12-27 SU away this season but their average MOV in those games is -5.5ppg which clearly gets us a cover.

ASA play on UNDER 245.5 Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks, 6:10pm ET - This number opened south of 240 and was quickly bet up to the current number of 244. We love the extra value and will be UNDER the total. Sure, Atlanta is playing for a better seed in the Eastern Conference, but they are also locked into the postseason. They have a MUCH bigger game on deck with Orlando who sits a game and a half ahead of them in the 7th seed. The Hawks will obviously play to win, but do they need a blowout to do so, or will they expand their rotation to keep starters fresh? We expect the latter. Atlanta is coming off a game yesterday against the Knicks and when playing without rest this season they are 6-9 UNDER with those games stayed below the number by an average of nearly 10ppg. On the season the Hawks rank 3rd in pace of play at 102.7 but in their last 5 games they have slowed to 100.2 which ranks 8th. Atlanta is below average in Offensive Efficiency ranking 19th at 1.141-points per possession and average or below in shooting overall. The Hawks are near league average in Defensive Efficiency, but let’s face it the Jazz can’t take advantage with the 24th ranked OEFF and a team that averages just 111.4ppg. Utah is in full tank-mode as they are trying desperately to land the #1 pick in the draft and Cooper Flagg of Duke. They have scored 106 or less in 7 of their last ten games. Granted, they have given up some huge numbers defensively in recent weeks, but again, the Hawks are unrested, have a big game on deck and no motivation to put up 140 in this one. Even if the Hawks get to 130 this game still has a great shot at staying UNDER the inflated Total.

ASA play on Dallas Mavericks +10.5 at LA Clippers, 10:30pm ET - This line is clearly inflated with the recent success of the Clippers so let’s bet value with the Mavericks. This number should be -7.5 at the most and a great comparison is what the Clippers were favored by recently at home against the 17-win Hornets of -13.5. Dallas was also recently +7 at Orlando without Gafford or Washington in the lineup and Anthony Davis was still working back into game-shape. The Mavs health is obviously key and tonight they have all three of the previously mentioned players available for this game against the Clippers. AD had a monster 34-points, 15 rebounds and 5 block game against Atlanta. We are not ignoring the fact that the Clippers have won and covered 8 of their last ten games, but again that has influenced the number on this game, giving us value with the dog. Both have plenty to play for as they fight for better playoff positioning. Dallas has covered 5 of the last seven meetings with the Clippers including 2 straight in Los Angeles.

ASA play on Portland Trailblazers -4.5 at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 pm ET - The Raptors are officially eliminated from the playoffs and are in ‘tank’ mode tonight against the Blazers. Understand, tanking is not asking your players to lose, it’s management telling coaches to sit players for ‘rest’. Tonight’s injury list tonight includes more than half their roster and 4 of five starters. Don’t be misled by the Raptors 4-1 SU run in their last five games as the wins came against Washington, Charlotte, Brooklyn and Philly, the four worst teams in the Eastern Conference. Portland has an outside shot at getting into the playoffs with 4 of their final six games coming against teams with sub .500 records. The Blazers are coming off a solid 14-point win over the Hawks in Atlanta on Tuesday with advantages in rebounding, shooting and had less turnovers. The Raptors have been a solid rebounding team all season long but tonight they’ll be without 3 of their top four rebounders so expect the Blazers to dominate the glass and second-chance baskets. Don’t be intimidated by the fact the Blazers are a road chalk here as they’ve covered 4 of five this season in that role with an average +/- of +10.1ppg.

ASA play on Dallas Mavericks -3.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 8:40pm ET - Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, so each has plenty to play for. Both teams had their season’s derailed by injuries this season, but the Mavs are currently the more intact roster, at home and off a loss. Dallas had won 4 of five games before they laid an egg against the Nets last time out. We like them to bounce back here against a Hawks team coming off a home game last night and playing their 3rd in four nights. The Mavs got Daniel Gafford back last game and also had Anthony Davis for 28 minutes. We expect both to play here considering they had a day off prior to this game. The Hawks are 7-7 ATS this season when playing without rest, 5-10 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage. Atlanta has struggled against the Western Conference this season with an 11-17 ATS record and a negative differential in those games of minus -7.3ppg. Dallas has a slightly above .500 home record as a favorite this season of 11-10 ATS but they’ve won those games by an average of +8.0ppg. These teams have similar EDiff ratings for the season and in their most recent 5 games, but again the Mavs are getting healthy. Dallas should knock down plenty of open looks with their 9th best team FG% facing a Hawks defense that ranks 29th in the NBA in FG% defense. The Mavs are also the 13th best 3PT shooting team in the league, the Hawks rank 28th in 3PT% D. Atlanta would typically enjoy a rebounding advantage in this matchup but with Gafford and Davis in the lineup they won’t have that luxury. Easy call for a blowout win here by Dallas.

ASA play on UNDER 233 Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, 10pm ET - We are betting on a ‘playoff like’ game tonight between the Wolves and Nuggets. Games are taking on more meaning late in the season with playoff seeding on the line and tonight, these two teams have a lot to play for. Denver is 3rd in the West but only has a 1-game lead on the Lakers for 4th and trail Houston by 1.5-games for 2nd. Minnesota is currently 7th in the Western Conference which would mean play-in games just to qualify for the postseason. Last season these two teams met in a 7-game playoff series with everyone of those games staying below tonight’s total. In fact, those playoff games averaged just 200 total points per game. In two games early this season these two teams produced 235 and 237 total points but recently they combined for 210. Every possession for each team is going to be critical tonight so expect a more deliberate pace and longer possessions. Both teams have slowed their pace of play in their last 10 games. Denver is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA this season, but the Wolves defense ranks 6th in Defensive Efficiency. In turn, Minnesota’s not a great shooting team and will have a hard time exploiting a slightly above average FG% defense of the Nuggets. With tensions high tonight we like UNDER the total.

ASA play on OVER 235.5 Boston Celtics at Memphis Grizzlies, 7:30pm ET - The Grizzlies sit 5th in the Western Conference, a game behind the Lakers for 4th, yet fired their coach Tayler Jenkins last week. Interim coach Lisalo Tuomas has never been an NBA head coach, but has extensive European experience. His philosophy is to play fast. In the Grizzlies most recent game they produced 261 combined total points with the Lakers. They attempted 95 field goals in the game, slightly more than their season average of 93.4. Memphis is already the fastest paced team in the league at 103.85 with the 6th most efficient offense in the league at 1.182-points per possession. The Grizz average 55.6 points in the paint this season, 2nd most in the NBA. Boston comes into this game with the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.208PPP. They attempt more 3’s per game at 48.3 than any other team in the league and make more at 17.9 per game. They have the 8th best 3PT% in the NBA at 37%. The best way to attack a solid Memphis defense is from beyond the arc. Memphis allows opponents to make 36.3% of their 3’s (16th) and give up the 25th most attempts and makes from Downtown. Both teams favor the OVER when playing non-conference games with a combined 35-20 record. When these teams met earlier this season they combined for 248 total points. Expect more of the same tonight.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -2 at Phoenix Suns, 9pm ET - This number is a bargain as we get a peaking Houston Rockets team against a Suns team that is 11th in the West and has underachieved all season long. Most casual fans don’t realize the Rockets have vaulted to the 2nd seed in the Western Conference with a 10-1 SU winning streak and a healthy roster. Phoenix is in full desperation mode to make the playoffs yet are just 5-5 SU their last ten games. If we take a closer look at each teams last ten games, we find the Rockets have a Net Rating of +8.5, the Suns NR is +0.9. The big separator between these two teams is the defense as the Rockets have the 11th best Defensive Net rating this season, the Suns are 27th. Houston has already beaten this team twice this season by +8 and +7 and we expect a similar win on Sunday in Phoenix. The Rockets are 27-17 SU (+5.1ppg) against other Western Conference opponents this season, the Suns are 21-16 SU (-1.7ppg). Phoenix has been a home underdog just 11 times this season and they’ve lost those games by an average of -5.1ppg going 5-6 SU. Houston is 16-4 SU as a road chalk, +9.0ppg. Take Houston here.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks -4 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:10PM ET - We are going to bet line value with the Bucks minus the short number against the Hawks today in a key Eastern Conference showdown. The Bucks sit 6th in the East, the Hawks are currently 8th so this game has seeding implications for both teams. Milwaukee is coming off a home loss so we expect a concentrated effort here against a Hawks team playing their 3rd straight on the road. These same two teams met in Atlanta earlier this month and the Bucks were favored by -5-points in the Hawks building and are now laying less than that at home. Atlanta isn’t a great shooting team to begin with at 46.9% overall (14th)and 35.6% from Deep (18th) and will struggle against this Bucks defense. Milwaukee has the 4th best FG% defense overall and the 6th best against the 3-pointers. Conversely, the Bucks are 5th in team FG% and 3rd in 3PT% while the Hawks defense is 28th in opponents FG% and 27th in 3PT% defense. The Bucks have had a few games to adjust to life without Dame Lillard and should get this home win by double-digits.

ASA play on UNDER 218.5 Sacramento Kings at Orlando Magic, 5pm ET - The Magic are coming off a tough home loss to the Mavericks while the Kings are off a big home win over the Blazers. The Magics offense has a Net rating of 111.1 in their last eight home games where they’ve played extremely slowly with 95.75 possessions per game and scored 106.6ppg. The Kings are averaging 110.8ppg in their last six games away from home and have scored 106 or less points in 6 of their last ten games. The Magic have the 2nd best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.100PPP, the Kings are 22nd. Sacramento is 22nd in pace of play and prefer to play half court with Sabonis and DeRozan who are both better in a set offense. The Kings defensive numbers aren’t great in their last ten games but they’ve faced a gauntlet of great offenses which has skewed their numbers. We like UNDER 218 here.

ASA play on NY Knicks pick’em at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 pm ET - We expect Giannis to be back in the lineup tonight for the Bucks, unfortunately Dame Lillard is likely out for the rest of the season. We like to fade teams that are off extended road trips and playing their first game at home with short rest. The Bucks played in altitude in Denver on Wednesday and lost to the Nuggets 117-127. Milwaukee is 2-4 SU their last six games with a low Net rating of 0.1. There is a ton of noise surrounding the Knicks and how they’ve underachieved this season yet this still sit 3rd in the Eastern Conference. In their last ten games the Knicks have a positive Net rating of +2.5 without All-Star Brunson. New York is a respectable 21-15 SU on the road this season with a +1.5 average point differential. Milwaukee has been atrocious against top 10 teams with a 4-18 SU record this season. The Knicks have won 4 straight against the Bucks and we expect them to make it 5 in a row tonight.

NBA play on UNDER 218.5 Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic, 7:10pm ET

We were hoping this line would be above 216 and were prepared to bet it UNDER at anything above that number. The 219 is a very generous number based on our numbers, and we expect a total well below this tonight. Orlando is the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA at 96.2 possessions per game. They are also really good defensively with the second-best Defensive Efficiency rating at 1.10PPP. The Magic aren’t great offensively though the 3rd worst Offensive Efficiency rating of 1.088PPP. Dallas is average is pace, below average offensively and defensively. The Mavs are coming off an incredible shooting night against the Knicks at 54% overall and were well above expectations in the 1st half. Naji Marshall was 17/25 from the field and we don’t expect him to duplicate those numbers against this Magic defense. The Mavs should have Anthony Davis back for this game and while he provides more offense, he’s also one of the best big defenders in the NBA. When these teams met earlier this season they combined for 193 total points. 

ASA play on Phoenix Suns +5 vs. Boston Celtics, 10:10 pm ET - Have the Suns finally flipped the switch and decided to try and play in the postseason? It sure looks like it with a 5-1 run in their last six games. The Suns have won 4 straight with three quality wins over the Bulls (playing well right now), the Cavaliers and Bucks. In that 5 game stretch the Suns have the 6th best Net Rating in the NBA at +9.1. The Celtics are in the midst of a long 6 game West Coast road trip with 3 straight wins at Utah, Portland and Sacramento. There is a good chance the Celtics sit Tatum tonight with the #2 seed in the East all but locked up. Comparing each teams last 5 games we find very similar numbers with the Celtics 124.9 Offensive Net rating versus the Suns 121.5. The Defensive numbers are also close with the Celtics 112.1 DNR and the Suns at 112.4. The difference is the Suns have faced a much tougher schedule in that 5 game span. The motivated Suns fighting to get into the playoffs will find a way to keep this game close throughout and may even win outright. Grab the points.

ASA play on OVER 224 Dallas Mavericks at NY Knicks, 7:40pm ET - No team in the NBA goes OVER the total at a higher rate than the Mavericks when playing the second night of a back-to-back. Dallas 10-1 OVER when playing without rest and those games have gone OVER by an average of +17.4ppg. The Mavs are also 19-5 OVER when playing an Eastern Conference opponent this season. Dallas received some good news with the return of Anthony Davis last night against the Nets. AD played 26 minutes and scored 12 points to go along with 6 rebounds. Even with their depleted roster the Mavs offense has been solid in recent games by scoring 120 or more points in four straight games. In fact, the Dallas Offensive Net rating over that 4 game span is 7th best in the league. On the other end of the court things haven’t gone as well for the Mavs. Dallas ranks 23rd in Defensive Net rating and they’ve given up 122 or more points in 10 of their last twelve games, 130+ in five of those games. New York got a much needed win last time out 122-103 against the Wizards. They have been off for 2 days and should be fresh for this contest. NY’s offensive struggles are well documented without Jalen Brunson but today is a great spot to ‘get right’ versus this Dallas D. On the season the Knicks rank 5th in Offensive Net ratings and have capable scorers in Karl Anthony Towns, Bridges and Anunoby who are all averaging 16+ points per game. The Knicks 4th best FG% offense should get plenty of open looks against a Dallas D that ranks 16th in opponents FG% allowed and 21st in 3PT%. Conversely, the Mavs should knock down shots with their 12th bet FG% (and 10th in 3PT%) against a Knicks defense that ranks 21st in FG% and 28th in 3PT% allowed. The bet here is OVER!

ASA play on San Antonio Spurs +10.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7pm ET - This is a great spot to fade the Pistons and back the Spurs. Detroit is coming off a home win over the Pelicans and have a HUGE game looming against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday. The Pistons will be without Tim Hardaway Jr tonight and could sit Cade Cunningham again, who has a sore calf and could get 5 full days of rest before the playoffs. Detroit is a fun up-and-coming team, but this is a big ask for them to cover double-digits at home in this situation. The Pistons are 16-18-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of 1.0ppg. They are 6-11 ATS as home favorites. San Antonio was heavily overpriced for most of the season with Wemby in the lineup which led to a 14-20 ATS road record. But they were competitive away from home with an average point differential of only -3.3ppg. You may be shocked to know that the Spurs have the best Offensive Net rating over the last 10 games in the NBA. Granted the Pistons have great overall numbers on the season but even looking at that 10-game span for both teams we see the Pistons Net Rating of 5.4 isn’t much better than the Spurs of 0.6. We like the Spurs to keep this game close throughout.

ASA play on OVER 232.5 San Antonio Spurs at Detroit Pistons, 7pm ET - Over the last ten games the Spurs have the #1 rated Offensive Net rating in the NBA at 123. The Pistons aren’t too far behind them at the 10th spot with a 117.2 ONR. Both teams play at an above average pace with the Piston ranking 9th and the Spurs 13th for the season. Defensively the Pistons rank 9th in Defensive Net ratings, the Spurs though are 25th. The Spurs have scored 119 or more points in eight of their last nine games. They’ve also allowed 115 or more points in 8 of their last ten games. Detroit has put up 115 or more points in 8 of their last ten games and have allowed 113 or more points in 5 of their last six. When these teams last met in mid-February they combined for 235 total points. We see another high scoring game here.

ASA play on OVER 223 Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns, 10 pm ET - Our numbers suggest the oddsmakers were correct on this opening line of 230, hence we like the value with this OVER wager. Our math model is projecting 228.3 total points in this game and even when we crunch the numbers on each teams last 5-games we get an OVER of 224.1. Both teams have slowed their pace in their last 5 games but with these two teams we don’t need a track meet to cash the OVER. That’s because these are two of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA. The Bucks rank 3rd in 3PT% at 38.3%, the Suns are 2nd at 38.4%. Phoenix is the 8th most efficient offense in the NBA on the season averaging 1.169-points per possession, the Bucks are 14th at 1.149PPP. Both offenses are trending up in their last five games with both having OEFF numbers higher than their season numbers. These two teams met just over a week ago in Milwaukee and produced 269 total points, in large part because of great 3-point shooting. The Suns hit 14/33 3’s for 42%, the Bucks went 24 of 41 from Deep for 59%. Even without Lillard or Beal in the lineups for each team we expect a game closer to league average than not.

ASA play on OVER 230 Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 pm ET - Both teams are off games yesterday and playing their 3rd game in four days, 5th in eight days. Fatigue will be a factor here and lead to a lack of defense by both teams. On the subject of defense, these two teams don’t play any. On the season the 76ers rank 27th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.181-points per possession. The Pelicans are 30th or last in the league in DEFF giving up 1.20PPP. Looking closer, we find in each of their last 5-games but defenses have been worse yet with the Pels giving up 1.286PPP, the Sixers are allowing 1.291PPP. The injury riddled 76ers are playing fast without their regulars with the 7th fastest pace of play in the NBA over the last 5 games. New Orleans is about league average in pace of play. The lineups were different at the time, but in January when these teams met in Philly they produced 238 total points. Both teams favor the OVER when playing unrested with a combined 16-10-1 record. With tickets coming in on the UNDER and the line moving up we like the smart money move and OVER.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings -130 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10pm ET - Both teams have plenty to play for as the Bucks are fighting for a top 4 seed in the East and home court, the Kings are trying to hold on to the 9th seed in the Western Conference. The Bucks are coming off a blowout win over the Lakers but Los Angeles was without most of their key starters. Milwaukee is 3-5 SU their last eight games overall and have been a poor road team this season at 15-18 SU with a negative differential of minus -1.2ppg. Sacramento is coming off a home loss to the Bulls but had two solid wins prior against the Cavs and Grizzlies. The Kings are slightly above .500 at home with a 18-16 record, plus +2.1ppg. In the lone meeting earlier this season, the Bucks beat the Kings 130-115 as a -2-point home favorite. The Kings have two games on deck against the Celtics and Thunder which makes this game that much more important as a 4-game losing streak would be devastating to their playoff hopes. The line on this game is begging you to take the Bucks, so we’ll play contrarian and back the Kings.

ASA play on OVER 222.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings, 10pm ET - The Bucks, sitting 3rd in the NBA for 3-point shooting, are primed to light up the Kings, who rank dead last (30th) at defending the three. Sacramento’s been an offensive beast lately, posting a 117.6 offensive rating over their last ten games (9th in the league), while Milwaukee’s at 115.3 (14th). Their first meeting this season was a 245-point OVER with 104 field goal attempts, way past the league’s 178.4-per-game average. The Kings’ defense isn’t helping either, giving up 119 or more in six straight games. With Milwaukee’s pace (100.2) and Sacramento’s (99.3) keeping things moving, this could turn into another shootout. Sacramento is shooting the ball extremely well right now with the 7th best EFG% over their last fifteen games. Milwaukee is not the defensive juggernaut they were in the past as they currently rank 10th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.127-points per possession. This Bucks vs. Kings game goes OVER 222.5 total points comfortably.

ASA play on OVER 226.5 Milwaukee Bucks at LA Lakers – 10:40 pm ET - These two teams met on March 13th in Milwaukee and produced 232 total points. That game was played at an average pace with average shooting by both teams and it climbed OVER the number of 226.5. We expect a very similar result tonight. Milwaukee is coming off a horrible showing against the Warriors a couple of nights ago in which they managed just 17-points in two of the four quarters. The Bucks are the 7th best overall shooting team in the NBA at 47.9% and rank 2nd in 3PT% at 38.3%. Milwaukee ranks 14th in Offensive Efficiency at 1.146-points per possession. The Lakers are 12th in OEFF on the season and have been even more efficient in their last 5-games at 1.176PPP. LA has the 9th best FG% at 47.9% and rank 16th in 3PT% at 35.9%. The Lakers are playing at a faster rate in their last 5 games without LeBron and tempo will play an important role in this OVER. Milwaukee is 11th in pace of play on the season and will look to get out and run against a Lakers defense that allows the 25th most fast break points in the league. Five of the last six meetings between these two teams has flown OVER the total.

ASA play on OVER 217.5 Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, 7:40pm ET - This game has all the makings of an ‘average’ NBA game which is great for our OVER bet. The average total points scored in an NBA game this season and for the last several years is 227.4 total points per game. Obviously, if these two play ‘average’ it goes OVER easily. In fact, our math model is projecting 221.6 total points being scored. This will be the fourth and final meeting of the season for these two teams. On October 28th they combined for 204 total points. In mid-November and mid-December, they played two OT games, but in regulation they totaled 228 and 222. Miami has had some problems scoring of late with four straight games of 104 or less points but they’ve also come against good defensive teams. Detroit is top 8 in Defensive Efficiency ratings this season, but they should have some success with their 3PT shooting against a Pistons D that ranks 22nd in 3PT% allowed. Detroit plays with pace and is the 7th fastest tempo team in the league at 100 possessions per game. We are not asking these two teams to score 235 or anything ridiculous, just be average and we cash an easy win.

ASA play on UNDER 228 Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors, 10:10 pm ET - We were fortunate to bet this game UNDER 234 when it opened but now find this number at 229 with the announcement Steph Curry will not play tonight. We still feel there is value in this UNDER as long as it stays above 227. If we examine recent trends for both teams we find that both teams have been excellent defensively in their last 15 games. The Warriors Defensive Net rating of 108.2 ranks 3rd best, the Bucks 109.7 ranks 5th. When we look at each teams season numbers offensively we find both rank near league average in Offensive Net ratings with the Bucks 14th the Warriors 16th. Golden State is off a game last night against the Nuggets and when playing without rest this season they have stayed UNDER in 7 of eleven games by an average of -11.4ppg. The Bucks are 9-13 UNDER this season against the Western Conference. The Bucks have recently faced three similar defenses to the Warriors and struggled offensively scoring 105 against the Thunder, 100 vs. Cleveland and 109 against the Magic. Golden State’s offense has sputtered in two straight games, managing 97 points against the Knicks and 105 last night versus Denver.

ASA play on Denver Nuggets +5.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - The Warriors have gotten red hot with the addition of Jimmy Butler with a 12-1 SU record in their last 13 games. That run has the bookmakers attention which has inflated this number. A closer look at the Warriors streak and we find they haven’t faced a team as good as the Nuggets. The closest team would be the Knicks who they beat twice in this streak, but the recent home win came with Brunson out of the lineup for NY. Denver is coming into this game off an upset loss at home to the Wizards and we expect them to bounce back here. The Nuggets are 18-6 SU off a loss this season with an average MOV of +7.4ppg. The Nuggets have won 9 of the last ten meetings with Golden State including 8 straight. Denver is the best shooting team in the NBA at 50.7% overall and the 4th best 3PT shooting team at 38.2%. It’s hard to believe but Golden State ranks 26th in FG% at 45% and rank 13th in 3PT% at 36.3%. Defensively the Warriors certainly have an advantage but it won’t be enough to cover this spread.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -15 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 8:10pm ET - Philadelphia literally looks like a G-league team right now with 7 of their top eight players out of the lineup today. Some of the players in the Philly lineup today are borderline NBA talents. The 76ers will have a tough time in the back-to-back scenario with their depleted roster. The 76ers are 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS when playing without rest with a negative point differential of minus -8.5ppg. Houston is 9-5 ATS when playing with a rest advantage this season. Houston has won 6 straight games and playing great basketball with the best Net rating (+16.5) over that stretch of games. In comparison the Sixers are 27th in Net rating differential over their last six games at minus -7.1. Philly is 2-6 SU their last eight games and all five losses came by double digits. Houston won’t take this team lightly tonight after they just upset the Mavs in Dallas yesterday. With a healthy VanVleet we expect the Rocket to continue to make noise in the West.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:10 pm ET - Both teams are coming off a game yesterday, but we like the Thunders scheduling situation better than Milwaukee’s. OKC at least had 2 days off prior to playing yesterday in Detroit, the Bucks don’t have that same luxury. This will be the Bucks 3rd game in four days, the 6th game in nine days, and the 2nd set of back-to-backs. Not only that, the Bucks last four games have been big games against the Cavaliers, Pacers and Lakers. The Thunder have won 9 of their last ten games overall, covering 5 of their last six games. In this recent stretch of games, they have impressive road wins in Detroit, Boston and Memphis who all rate better than Milwaukee. The Thunder have the best overall Net Rating in the NBA this season at +12.2 compared to the Bucks who rate 11th at +2.2. OKC has beaten the elite teams in the NBA with a 8-3 record against the top 5 teams in the league. Milwaukee on the other hand is 1-10 SU against that same level of competition. OKC has some injuries with Dort and J Williams not expected to play but they do figure to have Chet Holmgren back for this one. Lay the short number with the Thunder.

ASA play on UNDER 235.5 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10pm ET - These two teams really don’t like each other and this matchup has become one of the better current rivalries in the NBA. They just met in Indiana earlier in the week and produced 229 total points when Haliburton converted a 4-point play late for the win. The takeaway from that game was the total field goal attempts which was 171, lower than a regular NBA game of 178.4. Both teams shot above expectations at 51% which is better than their season average of 48.9% and 48.1%. This game has a playoff feel to it and we expect both defenses to step up and make every shot difficult. If you exclude OT these two have stayed UNDER this number in 7 of the last nine meetings. Indiana is coming off a game last night and have favored the UNDER when playing without rest at 4-6 this season. Milwaukee also has a slight tendency to play UNDER with a rest advantage with a 16-18-1 record. Indiana has stayed UNDER in 4 straight games and 8 of their last ten. In each teams last ten games the defenses have been above average with the Pacers ranking 13th in Net Rating, the Bucks are 5th. Both teams are also closer to average in Offensive Net rating at 116.0 and 116.4. Our math model tells us this game will be closer to the league average of 227.4 total points per game than the oddsmakers number of 235.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +5 vs. LA Clippers, 7:30pm ET - We unsuccessfully played against the Clippers the other night in Miami as the Heat look like a team that has quit on the season. Tonight, we get a larger spread with a home-dog Hawks team that continues to play hard for Quinn Snyder. Atlanta has won 4 straight games, all at home, and has a 9-7 ATS as a home underdog this season. While we are on that subject, the Clippers are one of the worst road favorites in the NBA with a 4-11 ATS record. Los Angeles has won 4 of their last five games overall but are just 2-7 SU their last nine road games. The Clippers are 13-21 ATS away from home overall with a negative differential of minus -2.1ppg. Atlanta should enjoy their advantage with offensive rebounding as they rank 9th in the league compared to the Clippers who rank 23rd in O-boards. In each teams last ten games they have near identical Net Rating differentials at +0.1 and +0.8.

ASA play on OVER 233 Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors, 10 pm ET - These teams met in late February and produced 240 total points and OVER 237. In two meetings in January they produced 240 and 228 total points. The OVER is 5-1 the last six meetings. Scheduling favors an OVER wager here too as both teams tend to play in higher scoring games with 2-3 days rest. Combined they are 9-15-1 to the OVER in this scheduling situation. When it comes to playing within the Division, these two are a combined 15-9 OVER this season. In each teams last 10 games the offenses have been humming with the Warriors ranking 3rd in Offensive Net Rating, the Kings are 8th. These two teams rank 10th and 11th in EFG% so both are shooting the rock well in this 10-game stretch. The Warriors are going to have success from beyond the arc with the 13th best 3PT% going up against a Kings D that ranks 29th in opponents FG% defense. The Kings are going to score with volume (7th in field goal attempts this season) and good shooting (10th in FG%). There is some value in this number which is 4-points lower than the number set on these same two teams just a few weeks ago.

ASA play on Miami Heat -135 vs. LA Clippers, 8pm ET - The Clippers are off a game last night in New Orleans and are playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in six so fatigue will be a factor. When playing without rest the Clippers are 5-8 ATS with a negative average differential of minus -4.1ppg. Miami is rested after a home loss on Monday to the Hornets. The Heat have lost 4-straight and are in danger of missing the playoffs as they sit 9th in the East. Miami will have their starting five intact as Andrew Wiggins returned from an injury against Charlotte and contributed 19-points and 7 rebounds. Miami doesn’t have great home results of late with an 0-3 run in their own building, but the Clippers are 1-6 SU their last seven on the road. In each teams last ten games the Heat actually own the better Net Rating at 0.2 compared to the Clippers at -2.5. With two fairly even teams statistically, we like the home team, off a loss against the unrested foe. Lay it with Miami.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder +4 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 pm ET - This could be the potential NBA Finals matchup as the Thunder are the best team in the West and the Celtics are 2nd in the East. Oklahoma City is coming off a loss to the Nuggets on Monday while the C’s beat the Jazz. The Thunder off a loss this season are 11-1 SU with an average MOV of +15.7ppg. OKC has the 2nd best road record in the league at 24-7 SU +10.4ppg. Boston is good at home at 23-11 SU with an average +/- of plus 8.3ppg. OKC is 21-2 SU against the Eastern Conference this season, the Celtics are 15-7 SU versus the Western Conference. Oklahoma City rates slightly higher in Net Rating too at +12.8 compared to the Celtics at +9.0. We are 64 games into the season and the Thunder have better overall numbers and are catching points here in a game they can clearly win outright.

ASA play on Washington Wizards +15.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7:10 pm ET - The Pistons are playing great basketball right now but they are not ready to lay this big of a number against any team in the NBA. The largest number the Pistons have been favored by prior to this is -12 points. It’s not a great scheduling situation with the Pistons off a 4-game West Coast trip AND they have a much bigger game with Oklahoma City on deck. The Wizards have won 3 of their last four games, including 2 straight wins. Granted the last 4 Washington wins have come against Brooklyn, Charlotte, Utah and Toronto, but they don’t have to win this game, just stay within margin. Washington has the largest point differential in the NBA at minus -12ppg, but again, that gets us a ‘W’ here. Detroit has an average +/- of +1.6ppg on the season. Detroit is 17-14 SU at home this season with an average MOV of plus + 0.6ppg. Washington was +17.5 points at home against Cleveland in early February and clearly should not be this big of a dog (+15.5) at Detroit. Grab the points.

ASA play on NY Knicks -120 at Sacramento Kings, 10:30 PM ET - The Knicks are in a solid situation here as they are off a loss on Saturday to the Lakers, while the Kings are coming off a huge Divisional game versus the Clippers. The Kings are 4-7 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative average differential of minus -3.6ppg. New York is solid off a loss this season with a 16-6 SU record with an average MOV of +7.3ppg. New York is 19-12 SU on the road this season, the Kings are 16-14 SU at home. The Knicks should find plenty of open looks with their 4th best FG% going up against the Kings 17th ranked FG% defense. New York is also the 9th best 3PT% team in the league, the King 3PT% defense is last in the NBA. The Knicks have won 3 straight in the series including a game in the Big Apple earlier this season by 23-points. NY is also 7-1 SU in the last eight versus Sacramento. Given the scheduling circumstances we like New York by double-digits in this one.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +6.5 at LA Clippers, 9:30 pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as only a ½ game separates them in the playoff hunt with the Clippers sitting 8th in the West, the Kings are 9th. Sacramento has adjusted to their new additions since the trade deadline with Zach LaVine coming over from Chicago. An addition to the Kings roster that doesn’t get talked about is Valanciunas from the Wizards who is playing well with Sabonis out. Valanciunas is coming off a 15-points, 12 rebound game against the Spurs and gives the Kings a big to nullify the Clippers center Ivica Zubac. The Clippers are missing their leading scorer Norman Powell and has not played as well from the AS break with a 3-6 SU record. When we take a closer look at each team’s last 10-games we find the Kings are playing much better than the Clippers. Sacramento has the 10th best Defensive Net rating in that 10-game stretch compared to the Clippers who rank 22nd. The Clippers are 15th in Offensive Net rating in their last 10 games, the Kings are 8th. The Kings have won 5 of their last six games with the only loss coming at Denver by 6-points. We expect them to keep this game close and wouldn’t be shocked with an outright win.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +6.5 at Golden State Warriors, 9:30 pm ET - We like to play against teams in their first home game off an extended road trip which is the case for the Warriors here. Golden State played a tough 5 game East Coast trip which ended with a taxing win in Brooklyn on Thursday night. Detroit is playing fantastic basketball right now but is coming off a loss against the Clippers on Wednesday. Detroit has won 8 of their last ten games overall and in that 10-game stretch they have the 2nd best Net Rating in the league, ahead of the Warriors. The Pistons have the 2nd best record in the league when coming off a loss with an 18-9 ATS record with a +1.6ppg average MOV. Golden State is 11-10 ATS at home as a favorite this season with an average +/- of +6.1ppg. These two teams have very even season Efficiency rating, both offensively and defensively so we expect a tight game in the Bay on Saturday.

ASA play on OVER 238 Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm ET - In this game we get two top 10 shooting teams with the Suns hitting 47.7% for the season overall and 37.8% from the 3-point line (4th). The Nuggets rank 1st in team FG% at 50.7%, 3rd in 3PT% at 38%. Denver is the 2nd best team in the league in Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.20PPP, the Suns rank 9th at 1.158PPP. Neither team plays much defense with the Nuggets ranking 18th in DEFF, Phoenix is worse yet, ranking 27th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.179-points per possession. Phoenix has allowed 116 or more points in 9 of their last ten games and Denver is putting up an average of 121.9ppg in their last ten games. We like the current betting trends as more money and tickets have come in on the under in this game, yet the line is trending up which suggests smart money action. Bet the OVER in this one.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10pm ET - The Rockets are on a 3-game losing streak but catch a break in the schedule with the 17-win Pelicans tonight. Houston has dealt with some significant injuries in recent weeks but is mostly healthy tonight sans Fred VanVleet. The Rockets three recent losses have come against the Kings, Thunder and Pacers so it’s not like they were losing to bad teams. Houston has beaten this Pelicans team twice already this season by 17 and 20-points respectively. New Orleans has a respectable 4-2 SU record in their last six games, but the wins aren’t overly impressive coming against the Suns, Jazz and Spurs. Houston is 17-14 SU on the road this season with the 10th best average MOV at +2.0ppg (only 11 NBA teams have a positive differential on the road). New Orleans has just 11-home wins this season and the 23rd worst average differential of minus -2.6ppg. Houston has clear advantages offensively and defensively when it comes to efficiency statistics and given those differences, they should be a -6.5 or more point favorite in this match up. Lay the points with Houston.

ASA play on UNDER 219.5 Detroit Pistons at LA Clippers, 10:40pm ET - These two teams recently met in Detroit and produced 203 total points with the Pistons winning at home 106-97. The Clippers were coming off a game the night before and simply didn’t have the juice on the second night of a back-to-back. That has been a theme for the Clippers who are 3-9 UNDER this season when playing without rest. If the second game of that 2-game leg is at home, where they are on a 5 straight UNDER streak (5-1 for the year). L.A. is off a pair of big games against the Lakers then played Tuesday in Phoenix so fatigue will be a factor. The Pistons are coming off a 134-106 win against the 15-win Jazz who have the worst Defensive Efficiency stats in the NBA. Tonight, Detroit will face a Clippers team that is 4th on the season in DEFF allowing just 1.102-points per possession. The Pistons defense is 11th on the season in Defensive Efficiency. Detroit has faced a handful of teams recently that rank in the top half of the league in pace of play which has led to a few higher scoring games. Tonight, they face a Clippers team that prefers to play slow, ranking 17th in pace. Offensively the Pistons are 14th in OEFF, the Clippers are 22nd. We like UNDER in this one.

ASA play on OVER 227 Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10pm ET - This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these two Eastern Conference foes and we predict another OVER and higher scoring game. In the first two clashes these two teams combined for 235 and 232 total points. Both teams shot extremely well in both games. Cleveland is the best offensive team in the NBA averaging 1.229-points per possession. They have the best overall EFG% at 58.7% and are putting up 124ppg at home this season. Miami’s defense is not what it used to be as they rank 13th in DEFF allowing 1.134PPP. Miami is 12th in OEFF and makes a living with 3-point shooting. The Heat rank 10th in made 3-pointers, 11th in attempts and 14th in 3PT%. The Cavs defense is very good, but they do struggle to defend the 3-point line allowing 36% shooting by opponents which ranks 19th in the league. The Cavs are coming off a game last night and when they play without rest they are 9-3 OVER this season with those games going OVER by an average of +8.9ppg. This game will get into the 230’s.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks –5.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - The Bucks are starting to ‘cook’ with a 6-1 SU/ATS record in their last seven games. In that stretch of games they have quality wins at Dallas and at Minnesota. They also notched impressive victories over Denver, Miami and the Clippers at home. In that 7-game span the Bucks have the 9th best Net Rating in the NBA at +6.1. A closer look at the Bucks last 5 games we find they are around league average in Offensive Efficiency at 1.14-points per possession. Milwaukee’s defense has been the difference as they rate the 4th best in Defensive Efficiency in their last 5 games, compared to their season rank of 10th. Atlanta is in a tough spot here after a game last night in Memphis. I am willing to bet they suffer a letdown here after a grueling road win over the Grizzlies. On the season the Hawks rank 21st in OEFF at 1.123-points per possession. Defensively the Hawks rank 17th on the season in DEFF, but in their last five games they have been worse, allowing 1.201PPP which ranks 25th. These teams recently met in Milwaukee with Atlanta pulling the road upset 115-110. The Bucks get a measure of revenge here with a big road win against the unrested Hawks.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings -2 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40pm ET - These two teams met in mid-February on this court with the Kings winning 129-128 in OT. Currently, both teams are dealing with injuries to big men as the Mavs will not have PJ Washington tonight along with Anthony Davis, Lively and Gafford. Sacramento will be missing Domantas Sabonis and his 20ppg, but they have a proven vet backup in Jonas Valanciunas to fill in. The Kings are starting to figure out their new lineup with DeRozan (added before the season) and Zach LaVine (trade deadline) with three straight wins. Sacramento is coming off an impressive 10-point win in Houston on Saturday. The Mavericks injuries are taking a toll, and it’s shown with a 1-3 SU record in their last four games. Looking at the last 5 games for each team we find the Kings rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency, the Mavericks rank 28th. Defensively they are both allowing right around 1.13-points per possession. The road team has won 5 of the last six meetings and we like the healthier/deeper Kings to get this road ‘W’.

ASA play on UNDER 254 Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - Our Math Model is projecting 236 total points on this game and even though we have the two fastest paced teams in the NBA facing off, we have to bet UNDER. Combined these two teams have had an O/U set of 250 or higher just one time in 160 total games this season. That was a game the Grizzlies were involved in against the Pacers which finished with 240 total points. Atlanta is 21st in Offensive Efficiency and 17th in Defensive Efficiency. Memphis is 6th in OEFF, 9th in DEFF. In the only other meeting this season between these two teams the O/U was set at 232.5 or a full 20+ points lower than tonight’s number. They combined for 240 points in that game. Atlanta has 3 big games on deck as they face the Bucks tomorrow night then the Pacers twice. Memphis has a huge 2 games looming against the Thunder and Mavericks. We doubt either team is interested in turning this game into a track meet and let’s face it, all it will take is one bad quarter by either team and they don’t get to 250. Bet UNDER.

ASA play on OVER 220.5 NY Knicks at Miami Heat, 6:10pm ET - We feel the oddsmakers had the correct line on this game when they opened with 224 on this Over/Under and will now bet the value on OVER 221. For the older bettors, this is not the old days when Van Gundy/Ewing and the Knicks battled the Riley/Morning led Heat in a defensive mid-80’s type game. Gone are the days of playing defense and physicality in the NBA as it’s all about scoring and 3’s now. On the season the Heat rank 12th in Defensive Efficiency but in their last 5 games they fall to 18th. The Knicks rank 22nd in DEFF on the year, 25th in their last 5 games. The Knicks beat teams with an offense that is 2nd in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency, has the 3rd best FG% at 49% and the 6th best 3PT% at 37%. New York should get plenty of good looks against a Miami defense that is 14th in FG% D overall and 17th in 3PT% defense. Miami is 12th on the season in OEFF at 1.124-points per possession and since the Butler trade has been better yet at 1.166PPP. Both teams have favored the OVER this season with a combined 65-52 record. When Miami has been a home underdog the OVER has cashed 6 of eight times. As a road favorite the Knicks are 12-9 OVER this season. In Conference games these two have a combined 42-33 OVER record. At the end of the day we are betting value in numbers and this line is to high.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -2.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 1 pm ET - It’s almost an automatic bet on the Celtics off a loss. Boston has lost 2 straight games, one at a hot Detroit team and another at home against the Cavaliers. The C’s are 26-12 ATS when coming off a loss dating back to the start of last season. They have won those games by an average of +16.0ppg. This season the Celtics are 13-4 ATS off a loss, +19.8ppg average MOV. Boston has the 4th best average point differential at home this season at +8.0ppg. This is a very low number for a Celtics team that is 64-17 SU their last 81 home games and the average +/- in those games is +12.1ppg. Denver has a strong history on the road too but their defense will be their Achilles heel in this game. Boston lives and dies from beyond the Arc with the 10th best 3PT% in the league at 37%. They attempt and make more 3-pointers than any other team in the league. Denver ranks 20th in 3PT attempts allowed, 23rd in 3PT’ers made and 18th in 3PT% defense. Denver has great offensive statistics with the best FG% in the league and rank 3rd in 3PT%. The problem though is that they’ll face a Boston defense that allows the 3rd lowest FG% overall and 3rd lowest 3PT%. Boston will feed off the home crowd and get this win by 8+ points.

ASA play on UNDER 228.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40pm ET - This game sets up to be slightly lower scoring than an average NBA game and there is value in this UNDER with the current number. On the season the Bucks have played at a faster rate with 100.36 possessions per game ranking 8th. Since the AS break and the trade deadline they have slowed to 100.8 possessions per game ranking 12th. Dallas is 15th (average) on the in pace of play and have remained there since the AS break. Both teams are above average for the season in terms of Defensive Efficiency with the Bucks ranking 10th allowing 1.126-points per possession, the Mavs rank 14th at 1.139PPP. Looking at both teams full season statistics, they rank in the top half of the league in Offensive Efficiency but in their last five games it’s been a different story. In each teams last 5 games the Bucks rank 18th in OEFF, the Mavericks rank 25th. The Bucks are on a 6-game UNDER streak in road games with their last 3 away from home all finishing with less than 206 total points. Dallas has stayed UNDER in 3 straight home games and 4 of their last six. Both teams’ strengths offensively are the others defensive strength so we don’t see either team putting up more than 113 total points. We like UNDER here.

ASA play on OVER 243.5 San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 pm ET - The most important aspect of this game will be the pace of play. The Grizzlies are the fastest paced team in the NBA this season at 104 possessions per game. The Spurs rank 10th in pace on the season and since Wemby went down with an injury, they have increased their pace with 3 more possessions per game. Memphis is top 10 in Defensive Efficiency for the season but in their last 5 games they rank 27th out of 30 teams. San Antonio is slightly better than league average in DEFF allowing 1.148-points per possession. The Spurs attempt the 5th most 3-pointers in the league, the Grizzlies attempt the most field goals overall so we know we will get a high number of attempts by both teams. These two teams have met three times this season which resulted in 244, 252 and 237 total points being scored. With a high tempo game we like our chances of cashing this OVER ticket.

ASA play on OVER 226 Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz, 9:30 pm ET - The Wolves are coming off a game in Los Angeles last night while the Jazz were home resting and off a loss to the Kings on Wednesday. This is the same scenario earlier this season when the Wolves were off a game in Phoenix then traveled to Utah and responded with a 138-113 win. Utah is last in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency rating allowing 1.196-points per possession. They allow opponents to shoot 47.6% (26th) overall and 36% from the 3PT line which ranks 18th. That plays into the T’Wolves hands who rank 12th in Offensive Efficiency at 1.144PPP with the 5th best 3PT% and 18th overall FG%. Utah should put up 110+ points in this game against an unrested Minnesota defense that has slipped this season and is without Rudy Gobert to protect the rim. Minnesota has gone from a top 6 Defensive Efficiency rating on the season to ranking 22nd in their last 5-games. Minnesota has allowed 120+ and have played OVER in three of their last four. Utah is giving up an average of 124.1ppg in their last ten games overall, 119.4ppg in their last 5 at home. It’s also encouraging to see the Jazz have put up some big offensive numbers against some of the leagues’ better defenses in their last 10 games. Utah put up 131 against Golden State, 110 and 116 versus the Clippers, 113 and 131 against the Lakers and 124 versus the Rockets. Minnesota has gone OVER the total in 4 of their last five games when playing without rest. Utah is 5-3 OVER when playing with rest advantage. In Conference games these two teams have a combined OVER record of 50-32 this season. Utah has gone OVER the total against Western Conference teams by an average of +5.0ppg. Minnesota has gone OVER against the West by an average of +1.6ppg.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. NY Knicks, 8:10pm ET - These two teams met in New York in late January and the Knicks put a spanking on the Grizzlies in a 143-106 beatdown. New York shot 52% overall and 39% from beyond the Arc with +8 in made 3-pointers. NBA teams may forget a loss in the season but not one that came by 37-points, so we are betting the Grizzlies play at a high level here. Memphis is 18-10 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of plus 11.0ppg which is the 3rd highest number in the NBA. New York is 13-14 ATS on the road this season with an average differential of plus +2.5ppg. In non-conference games the Grizzlies are 16-6-1 ATS with an +/- of 9.0ppg. The Knicks are 9-9 ATS against the Western Conference this season. New York is 2-4 ATS as a road dog and have had troubles with the leagues best teams. In recent games the Knicks have lost by 13 at Boston, -37 at Cleveland and lost by 27 to the Celtics at home. Memphis compares very favorably with the Knicks offensively with the 6th best Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.184PPP versus the 3rd best OEFF on NY at 1.201PPP. Defensively it’s not even close as the Grizzlies rate 9th in DEFF at 1.039PPP allowed compared to the Knicks who rank 22nd allowing 1.152PPP. Memphis should enjoy a rebound advantage with the 5th most defensive rebounds per game, the Knicks are 24th. The Griz are also the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the NBA, the Knicks rank 21st. Memphis is 7-1 SU their last eight home games with an average +/- of +7.7ppg. Bet Memphis.

ASA Play on OVER 225 Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Lakers, 10:40 pm ET - The current average NBA total points in a game is 226.8 points and this game sets up to be more than average. With Luka in the lineup the Lakers have played at a faster rate with over 101 possessions per game. Minnesota has been forced into a smaller lineup with Gobert injured and it’s led to a faster tempo of 101.9 possessions per game which is 7th most over a 5-game span. Both teams are top 13 in the league in Offensive Efficiency averaging more than 1.144-points per possession. Minnesota has gone from a top 6 Defensive Efficiency rating on the season to ranking 18th in their last 5-games. Magically the Lakers defense has been better with Luka playing but that is a short-term bump as he is a below average defender. The Lakers have stayed UNDER the total in 4 straight games which has forced the oddsmakers hand and made them set this O/U lower than it should be. In fact, this is the second lowest O/U number on a Lakers game in their last ten games. Minnesota has played OVER in three straight games and has allowed 120 or more points in three straight games and 4 of their last six. All three meetings between these teams this year came before mid-December and all three have stayed UNDER. Last season 3 of the four clashes went OVER. We are betting value in the number and like OVER in this one.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -2 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 pm ET - These two teams just met on Monday in Atlanta with the Hawks winning 98-86 as a -2.5-point favorite. The natural line swing in this game should have the Heat favored by -5.5 or -6.5-points in this game. We played against Miami in that game on Monday as the Heat were in a very tough scheduling situation playing their 3rd game in four nights, all of which were on the road. Miami shot 32% from the field overall and 18% from beyond the Arc. Those numbers are well below their season statistics of 45.3% and 35.6%. Despite that atrocious shooting performance, the Heat were still competitive in the 12-point loss. This game is a big one for both teams as only 1-game separates them in the playoff standings with less than 26-games remaining. Miami has gone through an adjustment period with their new roster since the trade deadline and being back at home for just the 2nd time in February and playing with immediate revenge should have them focused. Miami by double-digits at home tonight.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 233.5 Dallas Mavericks at LA Lakers, 10 pm ET - It’s the Luka revenge game in Los Angeles tonight! With NBA ratings at an all-time low this will certainly be a huge promotion for the league tonight as Luka Doncic takes on his former team. With that in mind, this O/U number has been inflated at the value in the numbers suggest UNDER. What I’m about to say next is going to shock you. For the season the Lakers defense ranks 13th in Defensive Net rating but since the Luka addition they have improved to 2nd best in the league. Granted, it’s only been 3-games but for whatever reason the Lakers defense has been better since the AS break and Luka is not known for his defense. Dallas is 13th for the season in Defensive Efficiency rating allowing 1.143-points per possession and have maintained that number in their most recent 5-game stretch. Five of the last six games involving the Mavericks have stayed UNDER 228 points. The last three Laker games have all finished with 223 or less points and that includes a game against Denver who has the 2nd best OEFF rating in the NBA. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play so this shouldn’t be a high possession game. These two teams are only slightly better than league average in terms of Offensive Efficiency, so we don’t expect either team to put up massive offensive numbers. This game sets up to be closer to the league average of 226 than the number set by the oddsmakers.

ASA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:40 pm ET - Both teams are coming off games yesterday but the Hawks were at home while the Heat were in Milwaukee. Atlanta also has the benefit of not playing Friday night, whereas the Heat were in Toronto. Miami’s starters played a heavy load of minutes against the Bucks with every starter playing 33+ minutes, Herro and Wiggins both were on the court 39+ minutes. Atlanta had 4 bench players all get 13+ minutes of play with only two starters playing more than 32 minutes. This game is a big one for both teams as only 1-game separates them for a play in berth in the postseason. Atlanta beat the Heat at home earlier this season 120-110 as a 1-point home underdog. In each team’s last 10 games the Heat’s offense has really struggled, ranking 26th in Net Rating. The Hawks on the other hand rank 7th in ONR over that same 10-game stretch. In that 10-game period the Heat have slightly better defensive numbers but not enough to warrant them being a road favorite here. Atlanta is 8-5 ATS as a home dog this season, Miami is 4-10 ATS as a road favorite. Take Atlanta at home to win outright.

ASA play on LA Clippers -122 at Detroit Pistons, 7 pm ET - Both teams played yesterday with different results as the Pistons won on the road in Atlanta, the Clippers lost at Indiana. The Pistons have won 6 straight games but not one of those wins have come against a team with an above .500 record. The Clippers have lost both games since the AS break against the Bucks and Pacers who are both playing well right now. In yesterday’s loss the Clippers sat Leonard for rest management, so we expect him back in the lineup for this game. L.A. was embarrassed yesterday by the Pacers, trailing by as many as 22-points and never led. The Clippers defense has been one of the best in the NBA the entire season ranking 3rd in Defensive Net Rating and the Pacers lite them up for 55% shooting. We don’t see that happening here against a Pistons team that is only slightly better than league average in team FG%. These two teams have very similar offensive numbers, but as we mentioned the Clippers are much better defensively. This looks like a trap-line by the oddsmakers as they work to attract Detroit money, but we won’t bite. Take the ugly road favorite here.

ASA Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:30 pm ET - These same two teams met right before the All-Star with the Wolves winning at home 116-101. OKC wasn’t in a great scheduling situation coming off a home game and a big come from behind win against the Heat and playing their 3rd game in four days. Minnesota was coming off a loss the night before to the Bucks, but that was on their home court, so they didn’t have to travel. Minnesota recently played in Cleveland, who has very similar Offensive, Defensive and Pace statistics as the Thunder and were beaten handily 128-107. The Thunder lost the most recent meeting in Minnesota so you can bet the best team in the league will be motivated and focused here. OKC has an average plus/minus on the road of +9.3ppg which is the 2nd best number in the NBA. Minnesota’s +/- at home is +4.4ppg but those numbers are largely predicated on a lineup that features Gobert, Randle and DiVincenzo, who are all out for this game. While these two teams have similar defensive numbers, with the Thunder having the edge, the offenses don’t compare. Minnesota is 13th in Offensive Efficiency, the Thunder at 5th. Minnesota shoots 46% overall (19th), the Thunder shoot 47.2% (9th). We like the Thunder to get revenge and a blowout win on the T’Wolves home court.

ASA play on UNDER 222 Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trailblazers, 10 pm ET - For starters, these two teams have favored the UNDER all season with a combined 46-62-2 record. In the last 15 NBA games these two teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in Offensive Net Rating. In that same time frame the Blazers are averaging 112.7ppg (22nd) while the Hornets are scoring 104.2ppg (28th). Both play at a much slower rate than league average with the Blazers ranking 18th in pace, the Hornets are 24th. Charlotte is above average in terms of Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.141-points per possession, the Blazers are below average allowing 1.163PPP, but in their last 15 games the Blazers defense rates 4th best in the league. Neither team is great shooting with the Hornets 29thh in EFG%, the Blazes are 24th. In their last ten games the Hornets and their opponents have scored more than this O/U number just three times. Charlotte’s offense has scored 104 or less points in 7 of their last ten games. Portland has held 7 of their last eight opponents not named Denver to 114 or less points. When these teams met earlier this season they combined for 199 total points. We like UNDER here.

ASA play on New Orleans +6 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 pm ET - The 13-win Pelicans have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA this season, largely due to injuries. New Orleans has had to deal with Zion Williamson missing 37 games, Dejounte Murray 24, Herb Jones 35, Trey Murphy 17 and CJ McCollum missing 15 games. Not to mention, Brandon Ingram who they traded, played in just 17 games for the Pels this season. Now it’s the Mavericks turn to deal with injury issues with Anthony Davis out, Daniel Gafford, Caleb Martin and Derek Lively out, Washington is not 100% and neither is Klay Thompson. The front court for the Mavs is dangerously thin right now. We expect Williamson to be in the lineup for the Pelicans tonight which gives them a low post presence the Mavs are lacking. New Orleans is 1-10 SU their last eleven games, but it’s come against a murderous schedule with games against some of the league’s best teams. In fact, one of those games was against this Mavericks team which they lost to 136-137. The Pelicans beat the Kings right before the All-Star break and can build on that momentum in Dallas tonight. The Mavs have two huge games looming against the Warriors and Lakers and could easily look past this Pelicans team tonight.

ASA play on OVER 236.5 New Orleans at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 pm ET - These two teams met on Jan 29th and produced 273 total points. Both teams had 96 field goal attempts in the game and each hit over 53% from the field. They also were dialed in from Deep with the Mavs hitting 20/43 3-pointers, the Pelicans made 15/31. In the last seven meetings between these two teams, one of the two teams has scored 119 or more points. In that same 7-game stretch these two have combined for 235 or more points five times. A big reason why these two teams have played in higher scoring games of late is their lack of defense. In the last 10 games the Mavericks have the 29th rated Defense in terms of Net rating at 120.7. The Pelicans are last in the NBA at 123. The Pelicans are 12th in pace of play this season, the Mavericks are 15th. We expect plenty of points in this one and like OVER.