Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-10-20 | Nets +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 104-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +11.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET We will go against the Lakers here and take Brooklyn plus the double digits. The Lakers are obviously coming off a pair of HUGE WINS over the Bucks and Clippers this weekend so don’t expect their focus or energy to be at a high level here against the lowly Nets. Not only are the Lakers off a couple big games but they also have the Rockets on deck. Brooklyn on the other hand will be amped to face LeBron and the Lakers. The Nets have a new coach in place now as they (Irving and Durant) recently decided to fire Kenny Atkinson and temporarily replace him with assistant Jacque Vaughn. The Nets have won two straight and three of their last four games, which includes a win at Boston. Brooklyn has cashed in 5 of their last six as an underdog and are a very attractive play here given the circumstances. As we already mentioned the Lakers are off two big games but in reality, it’s five straight as they also hosted Philly, went to New Orleans and played at Memphis. L.A. is 12-11 ATS as a double-digit chalk this season, 8-8 ATS when laying 11 or more points. The Lakers average winning margin at home this season is +9.7PPG which isn’t enough to get the money here. Despite the Nets 11-20 SU road record their average road differential of minus -3.1PPG is 18th in the NBA and slightly below league average of -2.7PPG. The Nets have been a double-digit dog just one time this season and this line is clearly an over-adjustment by the Lakers recent success. Easy call here with the puppy! |
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03-08-20 | Lakers v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
ASA play on: Clippers -2 over Lakers, 3:30PM ET We’ve said it from day 1 and will say it again, the Clippers are going to win the NBA Championship unless some unforeseen major injuries occur. LeBron couldn’t elevate his teammates last year so they added a top 5 players in the league in Anthony Davis along with several other top level vets. But the Clippers have outdone the Lakers with their own additions of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard then recently landed Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris. The Clippers 2nd unit is the best in the NBA and could potentially be a playoff team by themselves. The Lakers are coming off a big win over the Milwaukee Bucks at home and had the perfect game plan to contain Giannis but the Clippers have to many options to control. The Clippers recent resume includes wins at Houston by 15, at a hot OKC team by 15 along with home wins over Philly and a blowout of Denver. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS the last ten meetings and have a home average winning margin of +9.7PPG. LeBron can’t ‘bully’ his way to the rim in this game with Kawhi, Morris and Beverly defending him and we don’t feel the Lakers can adapt. Bet the Clippers as they are at full strength, have the better coach and roster. |
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03-06-20 | Bucks v. Lakers +1 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Lakers +1 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET We put our head before our hearts when it comes to betting which is the case tonight. We love Giannis and the Bucks and really don’t care for LeBron and the Lakers but the bet here is on Los Angeles. The Lakers have NOT been a home underdog this season and recently they were favored by -6.5-points over Houston and -7.5-points against Boston. Overall as a Dog this season the Lakers are 7-1 SU with an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. LBJ will take this game personally as the race for the league MVP is between, he and Giannis. Giannis should clearly be the MVP with the numbers he’s put up this season with a 31.8PER compared to LBJ’s 25.7PER and he doesn’t have a top 5 player in the league on his roster as LeBron does. Anyway, back to the bet tonight. The Lakers have won 9 of their last ten games and have a recipe to beat the Bucks after watching the Miami Heat do it recently. L.A. can clog the lane with big bodes like McGee, Howard, Davis and LeBron and keep Giannis from getting to the rim where he is most dangerous. The Bucks have been incredible all season long on the road with a a25-6 SU record and a +10PPG differential but this will be a tough place to win given the circumstances. When these two teams met in Milwaukee earlier this season the Bucks won by 7-points but attempted 9 more (home) free throws and shot 41% from beyond the arc which was drastically higher than their 35.8% season average. Even though the Lakers have a big game on deck with the Clippers there is no way they look past the best team in the NBA the Bucks at home. Statement night! |
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03-04-20 | Grizzlies +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 118-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:30PM ET The Brooklyn Nets are off a monumental comeback win over the Celtics last night and in for a letdown here. Boston went into the 4th quarter last night with a 17-point lead over Brooklyn before Caris LeVert decided to put the rest of the Nets on his back and carry them to the win. LeVert scored 37 of his 51 total points in the 4th quarter but you can bet he won’t produce those numbers here tonight (averages 17.3PPG on the year). The Nets have played 4 road game including last nights OT affair in Boston. On the season the Nets are just 2-6 SU on the second night of a back to back and lost their most recent home game to the Magic as a -3.5-point favorite. Memphis is fighting for the 8th spot in the West and took a hit when they lost 5 games in a row in late February but have won two straight to regain their confidence. The Grizzlies blew the Lakers out 105-88 then crushed the Hawks in Atlanta 127-88. Their defense has clearly been outstanding in their last two games allowing just 88-points in each. The Nets have a negative differential of minus -4.6PPG their last five contests while the Grizz are minus -.4PPG. As a favorite less than -4.5 points the Nets are 9-13 ATS this season while the Grizzlies in the same price range as a dog is 9-4 ATS. The underdog has covered 5 of the last six meetings and we like Memphis to win this one outright. |
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03-02-20 | Jazz v. Cavs +10 | Top | 126-113 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers +10 over Utah Jazz, 7PM ET The Cavaliers are a better team with their recent coaching change and the addition of Andre Drummond. Cleveland had won two straight games against a pair of the better teams in the East when they beat Miami in OT and then Philly by 14-points. They then followed up with a loss in New Orleans and home against the Pacers. The up-and-down Jazz got a home win over Washington but that was preceded by four straight losses, all of which were at home. Utah is just 4-4 SU their last eight road games and 16-13 SU away from home on the season with a +1.1-point differential. Even though the Cavs are a dismal 9-23 SU at home their negative differential of -6.9PPG is good enough to get a cover in this contest. Let’s face it, a big reason for the Cavs horrible statistics was injuries and a college coach trying to adjust to the NBA. Now with a solid front court of Drummond and Love along with a dynamic guard in Sexton this team should trend up the last part of this season. This is the largest road spread of the season for the Jazz and it’s time to play against them. |
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02-29-20 | Magic v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 113-114 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Orlando Magic, 8:30PM ET We like the Spurs in this setting as they are coming off their annual rodeo road trip, then lost at home to Dallas. Now the Spurs catch a Magic team off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in just four nights. Orlando is one of the worst offensive teams in the league and have a 11-18 SU road record with a negative differential of minus -3PPG. San Antonio shoots it and defends better at home than league averages and based on similar opponents in recent home games the Spurs should be favored by 5.5-points here. Orlando struggles to score on the road with one of the worst offenses in the NBA. The Magic are 23rd in offensive efficiency, 25th in scoring and one of the worst shooting teams away from home. The Spurs are in desperation mode if they want to extend their 22 year playoff streak so a win today is borderline critical. Lay the points |
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02-28-20 | Kings v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies -3 over Sacramento Kings, 8PM ET The Grizzlies have lost 4 straight games, all of which were on the road and started with a loss in Sacramento. The Grizz last three losses were against three of the best teams in the West, Lakers, Clippers and Rockets, with the most recent being an embarrassing loss in Houston by 28. Again, these two teams met just a few days ago in Sacramento and the Grizzlies were favored by a point and now they’re laying just 3-points? Sacramento comes into this game off a loss last night in Oklahoma City so fatigue becomes a factor. The Grizzlies have played 7 of their last eight games on the road but it you look at recent home games they are 10-1 SU with several impressive wins over the likes of the Spurs, Blazers, Rockets and Nuggets. Those 10 home wins have come by an average of 10.2PPG. The Kings are 12-19 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of -2.3PPG which is slightly lower than tonight’s number. The home team has covered 8 of the last nine in this series, including both this year. The Grizzlies bounce back after a horrible showing in Houston. |
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02-26-20 | Mavs v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
ASA 3* play on: San Antonio Spurs +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET The Spurs are finally home after their annual Rodeo Road Trip which saw them play eight straight road games. Not only were they on the road the entire month of February but it included a schedule of the Western Conferences best teams (Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Thunder, Jazz and Thunder again). With three days rest they are prepared to take on the instate rival Dallas Mavericks. The Spurs won 2 of their three final games against the Thunder and Jazz but were then blown out in their most recent game against the Thunder. We like the situation as good teams bounce back off horrible showings. Despite an overall losing record the Spurs average loss margin is just -1.2PPG this season overall and +1.2PPG at home. In their own building the Spurs are about league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, which should be worse given their overall record. Dallas though does have the 2nd best point differential on the NBA at plus +6.9PPG and are 19-9 SU away from home but those numbers are somewhat misleading based on scheduling. In their last eleven road games the Mavs are 7-4 SU BUT only two of those wins were against winning teams. They also have road losses to the Hawks, Wizards and Suns in that stretch. The Mavs with Luca were recently favored by 4-points at Orlando who isn’t as good as this Spurs team, even without Aldridge tonight. Since 2017 San Antonio is 17-8 SU (68%) at home as an underdog with an average margin of victory of +1.3PPG and covering by nearly 5PPG. The Dog has covered 8 of the last ten meetings. Grab the points! |
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02-24-20 | Suns v. Jazz -8 | Top | 131-111 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz -8 over Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET We like the situation as the Jazz are off a pair of bad losses to other Western Conference teams (Spurs, Rockets) following the break which will have them focused here. Phoenix has been a team we played on quite a bit early in the season and were rewarded with profits, but they’ve been fading with a 4-11 ATS record their last fifteen games. The Suns are 18th in offensive and defensive efficiency ratings on the road and an average loss margin of minus -3.4PPG (17th). Utah will lock down the Suns defensively with the 4th best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA when they are at home allowing just 1.052 points per possession. Utah is 20-7 SU in Salt Lake City with an average winning margin of +6.2PPG. Granted, it was early in the season, but the Jazz were favored by -4.5-points in Phoenix this season and now laying a few more points at home? Bet the value and take Utah minus the points. |
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02-20-20 | Heat -6 v. Hawks | Top | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET We realize we are laying a bit of a premium price here with the Heat but the situation warrants a bet on Miami. With the All-Star break the Heat were afforded extra time to work in the new additions prior to the trade deadline and build chemistry moving forward. Miami brought in veterans Iquodala and Crowder to compete with the Raptors and Bucks in the East. The Heat will be better because of the deals and we expect it to show tonight in Atlanta. Miami is just 1-4 SU their last five games but all were on the road against Western Conference foes including the Clippers, Jazz and Blazers. Atlanta was also active prior to the trade deadline and acquired center Capela from the Rockets who is inactive tonight. The Hawks are perceived as an offensive team, but the reality is, they rank 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.059 points per possession and the defense isn’t any better, ranking 28th in DEFF. In comparison the Heat rank 14th in defensive efficiency ratings and 7th in OEFF. The Heat have struggled on the road this season, but the Hawks have the 4th worst home record the past two seasons with a 26-41 SU record and an average loss margin of -3.8PPG. Miami has beaten this Hawks team three times this season by 15, 9 and 14 points already so coving this number shouldn’t be a problem tonight. Lay the points. |
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02-11-20 | Celtics v. Rockets -1.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
ASA play on: Houston Rockets -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 9:30PM ET You couldn’t really ask for a better spot to play on Houston and fade Boston. The Rockets are off a loss (two in fact) and have historically done well when coming off a beat. Since 2016 there isn’t a better team in the NBA than Houston when coming off a loss as they are 71-34 SU or 68% winners. Boston on the other hand is coming off a solid road win in Oklahoma City. The Celtics are 4-1 SU their last five road contests but two of those wins were against 15-40 Atlanta and 23-31 Orlando. The Celtics have some great road statistics including an average margin of victory of +4.2PPG but if you dig deeper you find they are just 1-5 SU on the road against the top 5 teams in the West and East. The Rockets are 18-8 SU at home with the 8th best MOV at +7.6PPG. This is a great spot to play on the Rockets as a very small home favorite. Lay it! |
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02-10-20 | Spurs +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET The money and tickets are flowing in on the Nuggets yet the line on this game has dropped a full point at some Sports Books. We will go contrarian here and bet the Underdog Spurs plus the points. San Antonio has lost 4 straight to kick off their annual Rodeo road trip but now they get a chance to face the team that knocked them out of the playoffs a season ago. San Antonio was recently a 9-point dog in L.A. against the Clippers so you can see for yourself this line is higher than it should be. The last time the Nuggets were favored by 7 to 7.5-points at home was against the Hawks and Kings, who are worse than the Spurs in overall efficiency ratings. Yes, we know the Nuggets are playing well right now, but they have also faced a very tough 10-game stretch that has featured some of the leagues best or hottest teams. We predict a letdown here against the team they eliminated a year ago and who aren’t the same Spurs team as they’ve been in the past. Denver wins at home by an average of +5.9PPG, while the Spurs road differential is minus -4PPG so both of those numbers get us a cover with the underdog in this contes. When catching +7.5 or more points this season the Spurs are 5-1 ATS, while Denver is just 6-8-2 ATS when laying -7.5 or more points. The Spurs are 17-7 ATS the last 24 in Denver. Grab the points! |
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02-07-20 | Raptors v. Pacers +1 | Top | 115-106 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +1 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET The Raptors have won 12 straight games and have a better record at this point than they did a year ago at this time with Kawhi on the roster. The current streak though is a bit of fool’s gold as 9 of those twelve wins came against losing teams with a combined record of 149-315. One of the Raptors wins over a team with a winning record just came the other night against this same Pacers team. Indiana shot well at 52% for the game but were outscored by 8 from the free throw line in the 1-point loss. The Pacers are still working Victor Oladipo back into the rotation and its clearly effected chemistry with their three-game losing streak, but they did play well in the loss at Toronto. The recent success of the Raptors has impacted this line in a negative way as they were just favored by -5.5-points at home and are still laying 1-point here? The Raps were also just favored by 4-points at Detroit recently who are not in the same discussion as this Pacers team. In recent home games the Pacers were favored against Miami and Philadelphia who are not much different than this Toronto team. Indiana is 18-7 SU at home this year with the 12th best average point differential at +4.4PPG. The home team has won 6 straight in this series and 9 of the last ten. Bet Indiana with revenge tonight. |
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02-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Houston Rockets, 10:30PM ET We waited patiently to post this bet today with fear the Lakers would move Kyle Kuzma and disrupt the Lakers chemistry. They didn’t and this roster will rally tonight knowing these are the guys they move forward with. Houston was active with a trade for a wing in Robert Covington, while dealing center Capela, which means they are all-in on small ball moving forward. In our opinion, Houston’s math-metrics has failed, and this team is not capable of coming out of the West. These same two teams squared off in Houston less than a month ago with the 3-point underdog Lakers winning by 9-points. L.A. shot 48% compared to Houston’s 44% and outrebound the Rockets by 4. The edge on the glass tonight will be magnified for the Lakers now that Capela is gone so who on the Rockets roster can match up with Anthony Davis? In the last meeting Capela grabbed 12 rebounds for Houston which will be sorely missed. Speaking of AD, he didn’t play in the first meeting against the Rockets and the Lakers still won by 9 on the road. Houston has a road differential of +0.6PPG which is 10th in the NBA but Los Angeles is 17-6 SU at home with an average MOV of 10PPG. These two Western Conference rivals are very similar when it comes to offensive efficiency ratings, but the Lakers hold a decisive advantage with the 4th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Houston’s 15th. This is one of those games the Lakers will be focused and play at a very high level. Lay the points! |
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02-03-20 | Mavs v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET This is a great spot for a bet on the Pacers who are off a home loss and face the Mavs off a blowout home win. Indiana suffered a setback against the Knicks their last time out as they adjust with the return of former All-Star Victor Oladipo back into the rotation. Oladipo was just 2 of 14 from the field and struggled in 22 minutes of play. The Pacers as a whole shot just 42% against the Knicks which was uncharacteristic of them as they are the 3rd best shooting team in the NBA at 47.6%. The Mavs come into this contest off a 23-point win over the lowly Hawks and will now be playing their 3rd game without All-Star Luka Doncic. Dallas has the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA but that’s with Doncic in the lineup who averages a hair under 29PPG. The Mavs will have a much tougher time scoring here against a Pacers defense that is 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.080 points per possession. The Pacers have an average margin of victory at home this season at +5PPG, are 12-6 SU when coming off a loss and have not lost back to back games at home this year. The home teams has covered 7 of the last nine in this series and that trend continues in this one. We are betting Indiana minus the points at home. |
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02-02-20 | Pelicans v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 2PM ET We like the movement and public backing of the Pelicans here with Zion Williamson and will bet opposite with Houston. The value in the number is evident when you compare today’s number with recent Rocket home games. At home Houston was favored by 8 over Dallas, -10.5 versus Denver, -7.5 against Oklahoma City and minus -3.5-points against the Lakers. You can see for yourself the value in today’s line. Has the Pelicans played well of late with the addition of Zion? Yes, of course but this is a very manageable number for the home team Rockets to get. Houston wins at home this season by an average of +7.6PPG, have the 7th best offensive efficiency numbers at home and the 13th best DEFF. New Orleans has the 24th worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -5PPG and the 20th worst DEFF when playing away from home. The Pels have two straight road wins but they came against the Cavs, improving Grizzlies and Pistons but their most recent road game against a quality team like Houston was a blowout loss to the Celtics. Houston should play with a little more energy today considering the Pelicans beat them by 15 just a month ago. Lay the points with the Rockets in this one. |
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01-30-20 | 76ers v. Hawks +7 | Top | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks +7 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30PM ET Plug your nose with this bet but it’s the logical play to make given the circumstances. Philly is in a scheduling nightmare as they recently played two big games against the Raptors and Lakers prior to beating the Warriors at home. On the horizon for the Sixers are THREE HUGE road contests at Boston, Miami and Milwaukee so looking past the Hawks is to be expected here. The Hawks have recently been blown out on the road in Toronto and Oklahoma City but were competitive in a home loss to the Raptors by 5 and beat the Clippers and Wizards. Atlanta has a losing home record of 7-16 but their average loss margin is -4.1PPG which clearly gets the cover here. Philadelphia has not been good on the road this season with a 9-15 SU mark and a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Earlier this season the Hawks lost by just 2-points at home to the 76ers who have just one spread win their last 9 road contests. Atlanta is shooting over 46% their last five games and they’ll make enough tonight at home to get the money in this one. |
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01-28-20 | Suns +6.5 v. Mavs | Top | 133-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
ASA play on: Phoenix Suns +6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET
This situation is ideal for a wager on the Suns who are off a loss and catch the Mavs off a win last night. So not only are the Mavericks playing the second night of a back to back, but they are also off a big win against OKC and they have a bigger game on deck against instate rival Houston. Phoenix is off a close road loss in Memphis but had won three straight road games prior to that against the Spurs, Celtics and Knicks. Dallas is just 6-7 ATS when laying 7 or more points at home this season so it’s not like they are a great heavy home favorite. Phoenix on the other hand has been a great underdog this year with a 7-2 spread record when catching 5 plus points. Dallas is 13-11 SU at home this season with an average differential of +6PPG (10th in the NBA). Phoenix is 10-11 SU away from home with the 12th best overall road differential of minus just 1.9PPG. The Mavs are 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS when playing without rest but the average margin of victory is less than 5PPG. Phoenix has covered 8 of the last ten in this series and 5 of six on this court. Phoenix hangs around the entire game and will have a chance to steal a win late. Grab the points! |
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01-27-20 | Magic v. Heat -6 | Top | 92-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET We have not supported the Heat many times this season but will here. Miami has been nearly unbeatable at home this season with a 20-2 SU record and one of those losses came in their last home game. We love to back good teams off a loss and this situation couldn’t be any better than it is, especially with the Magic off a game yesterday. Both Miami and Orlando were just beaten by the Clippers, but the Heat are rested while the Magic played yesterday. Orlando is also playing their 3rd game in four days so fatigue will be a factor. Miami has the 5th best average margin of victory at home in the NBA at +10PPG, are the 3rd most efficient offense at home and 7th in defensive efficiency. Orlando is 8-15 SU away from home with a negative differential of -3.1PPG. The Magic have the 25th worst offensive efficiency numbers on the road but rank 7th in DEFF. In their last five games overall, the Heat are shooting over 47% from the field while the Magic are allowing foes to hit nearly that same percentage in their last five contests. Miami has taken care of the lesser teams at home this year with a 11-3 ATS record against sub .500 teams on their home floor. Miami will bounce back here with a double-digit home win. |
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01-24-20 | Celtics v. Magic -1.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
ASA play on: Orlando Magic -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET The Celtics have some key injuries heading into this contest but that’s not the main reason for this selection. Orlando has made solid stride this season and are looking like a quality playoff contender in the East. The Magic do it with a defense that allows the least points per game at 104.3 and has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.062 points per possession. Orlando is 13-9 SU on their home floor with the 14th best home differential of +2.6PPG. The Magic have faced one of the toughest schedules in the NBA when at home this season with 12 games against current playoff teams. We like the situation with the Magic off home loss which came after a brutal 6-game West Coast road trip. We predict Boston will let down here following a pair of big home wins, especially with the light roster. The Celtics are 11-9 SU on the road this season but they have lost their last three away from home. Orlando has beaten the Celtics in three straight meetings and 4 of the last five. This is a great spot to fade Boston and back Orlando. Magic by 10. |
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01-22-20 | Pacers -1 v. Suns | Top | 112-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -1 over Phoenix Suns 9PM ET We certainly like the situation with a good team like Indiana off a horrible showing and loss in their previous game. We successfully played against the Pacers in their previous game as they were in a bad scheduling situation coming off a win in Denver the night before and facing a red hot Jazz team in Utah. Now Indiana has a day of rest and step down in talent to face the Suns. The Pacers had won 5 straight games leading into the Jazz loss and had won four straight road games against quality foes. Indiana has been very good when coming off a loss with a 5-1 spread run. Phoenix is average (15th) in the NBA when it comes to a point differential of +0.8PPG but have a losing record of 9-15 SU. Of the Suns 9-home wins only 3 have come against teams with winning records. The Suns rank in the bottom third of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings while Indiana is 11th in both when playing of the road. Phoenix is on an 0-5 ATS spread run at home and Indiana will make it six in a row. |
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01-21-20 | Clippers +1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Clippers +1.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET You know you’ve made it in the NBA when you are referred to by just one name and Luka Doncic has joined that elite status in the Association. With that success and fame though the Mavs have now become a very public team with bettors and have provided opportunities to bet against them in the right situation. Tonight, is that scenario as the Mavs are just 3-6 ATS at home versus winning teams, just 1-6 ATS overall as a home dog or small home favorite of less than 4-points. That streak includes a home loss to this same Clippers team earlier this season. Los Angeles is 8-3 SU their last eleven road games and coming off a solid road win against the red-hot Pelicans a few nights ago. The Clippers are top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency along with average margin of victory at +2.4PPG. The Mavs are top 10 at home in offensive efficiency and average MOV but rank 17th in defensive efficiency. Dallas is playing well their last five games, but the Clippers have been even better. With or without Paul George the Clippers get a big road win tonight. |
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01-20-20 | Kings +6 v. Heat | Top | 113-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Sacramento Kings +6 over Miami Heat, 5PM ET *Note this is a day game* The statistical support is underwhelming here as we are going against the Heat at home where they are 18-1 SU but we like the situation and the points with the Kings. Miami is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd game in four days and the second of a back to back after a loss yesterday in San Antonio. The Kings meanwhile had a day off after a loss in Utah. Statistically the Kings don’t have great numbers on the road this year with a 7-14 SU record but they’ve also been plagued by several key injuries. They are finally healthy with Bagley, Bjelica and Fox on the court together and should start trending up with a full roster. Sacramento is just 1-3 SU their last four on the road but two of the losses were at Denver and Memphis by 5 and 4-points. Miami has struggled this season when playing without rest with just 1 cover in seven tries this season. Don’t expect much energy in Miami for this day game and don’t be surprised when the Kings hand the Heat their second home loss of the season. |
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01-19-20 | Heat v. Spurs +1.5 | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: San Antonio Spurs +1 over Miami Heat, 3PM ET This is a great spot to back a veteran, proven team at home off a humiliating loss AND playing with nearly immediate revenge after losing in Miami just a few nights ago. San Antonio just lost at home to the Hawks who they had beaten 21 straight times on their home court. The Spurs blew a 14-point lead in a sloppy 4th quarter. Good team respond after efforts like that and even though the Spurs aren’t contender this season, they are still a proud franchise with great coaching and will bounce back here. Miami has struggled on the road all season long with a 11-11 SU record away from home and a negative differential of -2.6PPG (14th). In their most recent meeting, the Heat shot remarkably well at home where they are 18-1, by hitting 47% for the field and 42% from 3. They typically don’t shoot that well away from home this season and face a well-motivated Spurs team. It’s not often the Spurs are a home underdog as it’s happened just 22 times since the start of the 2017 season and they have won 15 of those games. Not to mention they are 8-1-1 ATS their last ten when coming off a loss. We’re betting San Antonio here and invite you to do the same. |
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01-17-20 | Hawks v. Spurs -8 | Top | 121-120 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -8.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 8:30PM ET The Spurs have been up and down, but we like them here off a road loss in Miami a few nights ago. Conversely, the Hawks are off a rare win, just their 3rd in their last eighteen games, and we don’t see them playing well here. San Antonio is 3-1 SU their last four home games which includes a 22-point home win over the Bucks in their last home game. Atlanta has the worst average differential in the NBA this season at minus -13.8PPG. In the Hawks most recent road contest they were just +8.5 point in Brooklyn who rates several spots lower than the Spurs in our power ratings and yet the number is the same in this matchup. Atlanta was drubbed by the Nets by 22-points in that road game. Atlanta is 1-7 SU off a win this season while the Spurs are 6-3 ATS at home off a loss. Current trending statistics have the Hawk shooting under 42% their last five games while the Spurs are hitting over 48% of their FG attempts. The Hawks defense over their last five games has been worse than the Spurs also. San Antonio is 11-9 SU at home this year but have faced 10 teams at home that made the playoffs last year and the Hawks aren’t of that caliber. Atlanta is just 6-14 ATS as a dog in the price range of 5 to 9.5-points this season and their 25th ranked defensive efficiency unit will struggle to slow the Spurs 9th ranked OEFF unit. The Hawks also have the 30th ranked offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. San Antonio by 10 plus points. |
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01-15-20 | Magic +11 v. Lakers | Top | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Orlando Magic +10.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET We like the Magic in this match up and the double-digits being offered by the oddsmakers. Let’s start with the Magic who have won 5 of their last seven games and getting great contributions from Vucevic, Fornier, Fultz and Gordon. The Magic have been great defensively all season long allowing the least amount of points in the NBA this season, but the offense has struggled. In their last five games though their offensive efficiency numbers are trending up significantly. The Lakers are an impressive 16-4 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory is +10.6 PPG which is on the number here. Of the Lakers 16 home wins though, six of those wins came against six of the worst teams in the NBA and were blowouts by 19 or more points which has inflated their average margin of victory numbers. Tonight, they face a relevant Magic teams that is obviously great defensively and capable of hanging within the spread. Los Angeles is also in a bad scheduling situation here as they just crushed the horrible Cavs and have a big game in Houston next. It looks like Anthony Davis will be out of the lineup again tonight which is a bonus for our Magic bet. Grab the points with the Magic who have been double-digit dogs just once this season and they covered that game. |
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01-12-20 | Hornets +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* Play on: Charlotte Hornets +8.5 over Phoenix Suns, 8PM ET The Suns have certainly overachieved this season thus far but that success has led to some lofty spreads as favorites which is not a role they excel in. When favored by 5 or more points this season they are just 2-4 ATS. Phoenix is 4-6 SU their last ten games and the four wins have all come by less than the spread on this game. Charlotte has played a brutal stretch of games against some of the leagues best teams and now step down to their own level of competition. The Hornets were recently underdogs of +12 at Utah, +11.5 at Dallas and +12.5 at Boston and now the 15-23 SU Suns are laying -8.5 points. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS their last ten road games against a team with a sub .400 home winning percentage which is the case today against Phoenix. The Suns have just 1 cover in their last six games as a chalk. Grab the points with Charlotte. |
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01-09-20 | Celtics +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 98-109 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET The Celtics have lost twice to the 76ers this season and can’t afford another loss to one of their biggest rivals. In fact, the Celtics had won 17 of the last nineteen regular season meetings with the Sixers prior to the start of this season. Boston is off a pair of losses including a humbling blowout at home last night to the Spurs so expect a focused team tonight. There shouldn’t be any concern for fatigue here on the side of the Celtics as no starter logged over 30-minutes last night. The Sixers have one of the best home court records and average point differential this year at 17-2 and +9.7PPG and they’re only favored by a bucket here? Boston has the 4th best road differential at +5.9PPG and have been very reliable on the road off a loss with a 4-1 record this season. Dating back to the start of the 2013 season, Stevens and the Celtics have won 60% of their games when coming off a defeat, which is the 6th best record in the NBA over that span of time. Philadelphia will be shorthanded without Joel Embiid tonight who has 53-points, 25-rebounds and 9 assists in the previous two meetings this season. The 76ers haven’t covered a number in five straight games while the C’s are 5-1 ATS their last six as a road dog. Boston wins this one outright! |
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01-02-20 | Jazz -3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 102-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz -3.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET The Jazz are playing fantastic right now with wins in 8 of their last nine games, including a recent road win against the Clippers. Utah does not have great road statistics, but they’ve played a tough road schedule which has dramatically impacted their numbers. The Jazz have already faced the best teams in the East and have two road games against the Clippers and one against the Lakers. We are now getting value with Utah on the road here laying a marginal number. The Jazz have some of the best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers their last five games with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. The Bulls have won 3 of their last five games but those W’s have come against the league’s dregs of Atlanta, Detroit and Washington who have a combined 29-72 SU record. The Bulls offense has struggled all season with the 25th ranked scoring offense and the 30th worst shooting team in the NBA. The Bulls will struggle to score against the Jazz defense that is one of the best in the NBA year in and year out. Jazz by 10 in this one. |
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12-28-19 | Pacers v. Pelicans +1 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans + over Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET The Pelicans are trending in the right direction, especially defensively where they are allowing just 1-point per possession over their last five games. That efficiency ranks them 2nd best in the entire NBA over that time. The Pels have held their last five opponents to an average of just 40.7% shooting from the field and allow 101.4 points per game in that stretch. Indiana has played a tough schedule of late and are coming off a much bigger game last night in Miami. In their last five games the Pacers are shooting just 41.2% from the field while scoring less than 105PPG. Indiana does have a positive road differential of +1.1PPG but they’ve also played the 4th easiest road schedule in the NBA this season. New Orleans has recently beaten Minnesota, Portland and Denver on the road and are playing their best basketball of the season. Indiana is off their hard-fought 1-point loss to the Heat and will have a hard time getting back up here. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings and get the cash in this one! |
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12-26-19 | Grizzlies +6 v. Thunder | Top | 110-97 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Memphis Grizzlies +6 @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET The situation really couldn’t be any better to play on the Grizzlies tonight as they are off an embarrassing loss to the Spurs in which they gave up 145 points AND recently loss to OKC on Dec 18th. In that game the Grizzlies held a 21-point advantage that the Thunder eventually overcame to win by 4-points. Memphis held a decisive advantage on the boards, but Oklahoma City benefitted from some ‘home cooking’ with plus +12 free throw makes. OKC also received 20-points, 3-rebounds and 3-assists from Danilo Gallinari who is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, yet the line is the same as a week ago. OKC has an average margin of victory is +5.1PPG at home this season which is not enough to get the money in this game plus they are in a bad schedule situation. The Thunder recently beat this team, are off a big upset win of the Clippers and have the Mavericks on deck. Memphis has covered 4 of the last five meetings and should cash another ticket tonight. |
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12-22-19 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 128-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
ASA Play on: LA Lakers -3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:30PM ET – We typically like playing on teams in their first game when a superstar is sitting out. Veteran or even young guys that are bench players get a rare start or extended minutes and typically rise to the challenge. We have no problem with LeBron sitting out for load management, err…a sore rib cage as they still have a top five player in the league that will get more touches. Anthony Davis is one of just a few players in the entire NBA that can carry a team himself and a guy that can get 50 on any given night. The Lakers also get Kyle Kuzma back in the lineup so don’t expect a scoring drop-off here. Add in a veteran PG like Rondo and we don’t expect the Lakers to suffer from not having LBJ in the lineup. Don’t get me wrong, LeBron’s absence would be felt over time, but not in today’s game. The Lakers have the 4th best home differential in the NBA at +11.8PPG and have won 6 of their last seven at home. Denver is just 6-5 SU on the road this year and have an offense that ranks 18th in offensive efficiency at 1.084 points per possession compared to the Lakers 6th ranked OEFF at 1.117PPP. Defensively these two teams are essentially even with the 2nd and 3rd ranked defensive efficiency units. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five at home against the Nuggets and will get a win here tonight even without Bron. |
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12-19-19 | Rockets v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 122-117 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Clippers -4.5 over Houston Rockets, 9:35PM ET – We are on the Clippers here minus the points in this Western Conference showdown. Clearly these are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA ranking 3rd (Houston) in offensive efficiency at 1.114 points per possession while the Clippers are 7th at 1.114PPP. The Rockets get their points by shooting over 45 3-pointers per game (1st) while the balanced Clippers get 49PPG in the paint (7th). Defensively is where these two teams are drastically different with the Clippers holding the 7th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.043PPP compared to the Rockets 16th ranked DEFF allowing 1.092PPP. Los Angeles holds opponents to 34.2% shooting from beyond the arc which is 11th best in the NBA. Houston is 22nd in the NBA at points allowed in the paint per game so you can see the Clippers have several key advantages. This will be the third meeting of the season as the home team has won both thus far. Houston has played the much easier schedule, yet the Clippers have the better overall statistics. The Clippers have covered 4 in a row at home as a chalk, 5-0 after tonight. |
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12-14-19 | Heat v. Mavs -8 | Top | 122-118 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks -8 vs. Miami Heat, 8:30PM ET The Hear will have a hard time getting back up for this game after their marquee game against the Lakers last night at home. Miami hasn’t won a game this season when playing without rest and have lost those games by an average of 17PPG. The Heat are basically an ‘average’ team on the road with a 7-6 SU record and an average differential of -2.6PPG (16th in the NBA). Dallas is rested and lost their most recent home game so expect a focused effort here. The Mavs have the second-best average home point differential in the league at +9.1PPG and are the most efficient offense in the league at home. The Mavericks have covered 9 of their last ten as a favorite while Miami comes into this game 0-5 ATS their last five when playing without rest. Lay the points. |
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12-10-19 | Knicks +9 v. Blazers | Top | 87-115 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: NY Knicks +9 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET – The Knicks have one of the worst records in the NBA but they’ve clearly underachieved based on the marginal talent on the roster. New York has a solid core of vets with Randle, Gibson, Morris and younger talent in Barrett, Ntilikina Portis and Payton. The players did not buy in with former head coach Fitzdale’s system and should relate to new coach Mike Miller. New York played well in a 1-point loss to Indiana in Miller’s first game and should continue to get better. Considering the change, we predict for the Knicks going forward this line is not what it should be. New York was just a +9.5-point underdog in Toronto who is better than this Portland team. Speaking of underachieving, let’s talk about the 9-15 SU Blazers. Last season the Blazers won 53 games in the regular season with the 7th best average scoring differential in the NBA at +4.2PPG. Portland had the 3rd best average home differential last year at +8.4PPG which won’t cover tonight’s spread. Portland is just 4-6 SU at home this season with a negative average differential of -1.3PPG. The Blazers have been 9 or more-point home chalks twice this season and they barely covered in overtime against the Hawks and lost outright to the Warriors. Considering the defense been has been horrible their last five games it’s an easy call to take the points and the Knicks here. |
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12-04-19 | Pacers v. Thunder +1 | Top | 107-100 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +1 over Indian Pacers, 8PM ET – At first glance the Indiana Pacers streak of 6-1 their last seven games is impressive but lets take a closer look. In that seven game stretch the Pacers have beaten Memphis twice, Atlanta, Orlando and Brooklyn, none of which have a winning record. You can argue that Oklahoma City is in that same scenario with a losing record, but they’ve played a top ten strength of schedule and Indiana has played one of the easiest. The Thunder have won back to back games against the Pelicans but are just 4-6 SU their last ten games but take peek at who the loses have come against. Portland the Lakers twice, Clippers, this Pacers team and the Bucks. OKC has had a dominating home record in recent years and has a loyal following at home. The Thunder are 92-48 SU at home since 2016 with an average margin of victory of +5.1PPG. The Thunder were recently +1.5 points at Indiana so the line adjustment isn’t what it should be with them the home team. Playing with same season revenge we like the Thunder here by double-digits. |
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12-03-19 | Lakers v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 105-96 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
ASA play on: #550 Denver Nuggets -2 vs. LA Lakers, 9PM ET We will play on the Denver Nuggets here minus the points at home over the Lakers. Los Angeles is certainly the media darling and has garnered a lot of attention with their 17-3 start. But the reality is the NBA set them up with one of the easiest schedules possible to start the season to ensure TV ratings early on and promote them as the team of destiny this season. On a side note, it hasn’t worked as NBA ratings are down this season but that will change as the season heats up. Back to basketball, the Lakers roster is an impressive one, but they’ve played the softest schedule to date and of their 20 games, ONLY 6 have been against teams with winning records and they are 3-3 in those games. The Lakers lofty offensive (8th) and defensive (4th) efficiency numbers are skewed as a result of the schedule. Denver on the other hand has faced much stiffer competition and is 1st in the NBA in DEFF and 20th in OEFF. The Nuggets at home have already beaten Boston, Houston, Philadelphia and Miami who are some of the league’s better teams. Even with that schedule the Nuggets still have an average margin of victory at home of +6.4PPG. Again, the Lakers are 1-1 on the road against winning teams this year yet only have an average margin of victory of +4.3PPG playing their weak schedule. The oddsmakers are begging us to bet the public Lakers here and we won’t bite. Denver has covered 5 straight against the Lakers on this court. Bet the Nuggets. |
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11-25-19 | Thunder -6 v. Warriors | Top | 100-97 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder -6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – The Thunder already own a pair of wins over the Warriors this season and there’s no reason they can’t beat them again by more than this spread. The Thunder have some solid efficiency numbers their last six games when you factor in the teams they’ve faced. OKC played the Lakers twice, the Clippers, Philadelphia, Indiana and Milwaukee. The Thunder lost to the Bucks by 2-points, beat Philly, lost to both L.A. teams by a combined 10-points. OKC has a negative point differential of minus -0.7PPG this season but they’ve faced the third toughest schedule. The roster is solid with veterans Chris Paul, Gallinari and Adams along with Gilgeous-Alexander who is playing great. Dennis Schroder and Terrance Ferguson round out the top six. The same can’t be said for Golden State who look like the walking wounded. The Warriors dressed just 8-players the other night in Utah due to injuries. GST has the worst overall average point differential in the NBA at minus -10.4PPG and the worst home differential at minus -9.0PPG. The line on this contest is slightly inflated but we feel Vegas is trying to keep us off Oklahoma City here. Lay the points. |
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11-22-19 | Celtics v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Denver Nuggets -5 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET – In our opinion Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in the NBA so it’s hard to believe his record off a SU loss is just 20-18 SU since the start of last season. Boston has gotten off to a fantastic 11-3 start this season but depth is a concern, especially in this situation with it being their 5th straight road game and the higher altitude of Denver. The Celtics have struggled with their shooting of late and we feel it catches up to them here. Boston has hit less than 42% from the field in four straight games. The Nuggets defensive efficiency rating is 4th best in the NBA and they are holding foes to under 43% shooting in their last five games. Denver got off to a slow start but are hitting their stride with wins in 7 of their last eight games which includes home wins over Miami, Philly and Houston who are all comparable to the Celtics. Denver is 44-12 SU at home since the start of last season with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. Lay the points. |
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11-20-19 | Magic v. Raptors -3 | Top | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – These two teams have met on this floor already this season with the Raptors coming out on top by 9-points as a 5-point favorite. That was the 5th straight time the Raptors have beaten the Magic and there is no reason to think that streak ends tonight. Orlando hasn’t won a road game this season and have a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG when away from home. Historically the Raptors have had some of the best numbers at home and this year their average point differential of +13.8PPG is second in the league. Much has been made of the Magic’s improved defensive efficiency numbers that rank them 9th in the NBA but Toronto has a better points per possession defense allowing just 1.030PPP which ranks them 5th. Orlando isn’t nearly as good as the Raptors on the other end of the court as Toronto ranks 10th in offensive efficiency, Orlando 24th. Yes, the Raptors don’t have Kyle Lowry in the lineup but VanVleet and Powell will pick up the slack in the backcourt. Lay the points with Toronto tonight. |
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11-14-19 | Heat v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 108-97 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
ASA play on: Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 over Miami Heat, 6PM ET - *Note early tip time* We love the Cavs here who are a team lumped together with some of the worst teams in the league, but are better than expected. Let’s talk line value first. The Cavs are catching a similar number at home as they were against Boston and Dallas recently who are both better than this Miami team as of this writing. Injuries: The Heat have suspended Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow is out and they have health concerns with Dragic, Johnson, and Herro who are all questionable tonight. The Cavaliers have played the 8th toughest schedule when it comes to efficiency ratings and yet they have the 17th average point differential of minus -0.9PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road this season with a differential of minus -2PPG. Cleveland is 2-2 SU at home and their differential is minus -2.2PPG so in both those scenarios (Miami away, Cavs home) the Cavs are within the spread tonight. Let’s not forget the Cav vets are playing hard to showcase their talents for other teams in the league before trade deadline when this team gets blown up. Take the home dog here and the points! |
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11-13-19 | Clippers +2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Clippers +2.5 over Houston Rockets, 7:30PM ET – Obviously the biggest game on the card tonight is this one and we are betting the Clippers. These two teams are both 7-3 SU on the season and have some similarities when it comes to general statistics but the biggest advantage the Clippers have is defense. Let’s compare both teams: The Clippers are 8th in offensive efficiency ratings, the Rockets are 3rd. Los Angeles is 11th in defensive efficiency, Houston is 20th. To summarize the Rockets, have a slight edge offensively and the Clippers hold the advantage defensively. But the Clippers numbers have come against the 3rd toughest schedule to date while the Rockets stats have come against the SECOND EASIEST! Houston has one quality win on their resume which was at home against the Bucks. The Clippers on the other hand have beaten Toronto, Portland, San Antonio, Utah and the Lakers. After facing the much tougher schedule the Clippers average point differential is +5PPG while the Rockets are +1.9PPG against a weak one. L.A. has covered 5 straight, the Rockets are 0-4 AGTS their last four against a team with a winning record. The better defensive team wins outright. Play on: LA CLIPPERS |
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11-08-19 | Bucks v. Jazz +3 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Utah Jazz +3 over Milwaukee Bucks, Friday 9PM ET – This is simply a bad number set by the oddsmakers and we’ll gladly take the value with the home team Jazz. Consider this: Utah was just favored by -2.5 points at home over a Philly team that is VERY comparable to Milwaukee and a -7.5 point favorite against the Clippers at home (minus Kawhi). The Jazz won both of those games and are unbeaten at home this season. Last year the Jazz were 29-12 SU at home with the 6th best home point differential at +7.9PPG. Going back further the Jazz are 30-16 their last 46 regular season home games with an average winning margin of +4.8PPG (11th best in the NBA). Milwaukee is clearly one of the best teams in the NBA and have some impressive road numbers including a 27-14 SU record away from home in the regular season last year. The Bucks road differential a season ago was +5.6PPG which was 2nd best in the league but that’s barely better than the spread here. The home team has won and covered 4 in a row in this series and with the vast majority of public money and tickets bet on the Bucks, we’ll go opposite and take the home team Jazz. |
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11-05-19 | Heat v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 89-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
ASA 10* Play On: #552 Denver Nuggets -4.5 over Miami Heat, 9PM ET – We are getting value here with the home team Nuggets who are off to a slow start by the standards set for them this season, while the Heat are over-valued by a hot start. Miami does have a pair of quality wins on their resume against Houston and Milwaukee, but their other three wins have come against Atlanta and Memphis. With a 5-1 SU record and a public team, the Heat will have the Nuggets full attention tonight. Denver is 71-21 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season with an average margin of victory of +7.9PPG. Last season Denver had the second most efficient offense in the NBA at home last year at 1.172PPG and the 5th best defensive efficiency allowing 1.064PPP. Denver was 34-7 at home last year and won by an average of 10.6PPG. The Heat are clearly over-valued tonight considering they were a 7-point dog at a lesser Minnesota and +11.5 points in Milwaukee. This Nuggets team was one of the favorites to win it all this season. Denver lost their last home contest and will send a message tonight. Lay the points. |
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11-03-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -4 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: LA Clippers -4 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – The Clippers are the best team in the NBA right now and Paul George hasn’t even seen the floor yet. Here’s what we’ve seen in this small sample size of the NBA. The Clippers have played the 4th toughest schedule to date based on opponents offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, yet they have the 11th best point differential at +4.7PPG. They are unbeaten at home with a point differential of +10.4PPG. Utah is going to be one of the better NBA teams this season, but they’ve played the second easiest schedule and current numbers are inflated. Utah faced the Lakers in Los Angeles earlier this season and were plus +3.5 points so the adjustment by the oddsmakers isn’t enough for the better of the two L.A. teams. Just how good is Kawhi Leonard you ask? He currently leads the Clippers in scoring, rebounding and assists. The Clippers just lost in Utah the other night but Kawhi was rested due to load management. He’ll play here and lead the Clippers to a double-digit home win. |
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10-26-19 | Pacers -5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Indiana Pacers -5.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET These two teams have very different season projections with the Pacers expected to win roughly 48 games while the Cavs season win total is 24. That essentially tells us what these teams are all about, so we have a good team off a loss laying a marginal number on the road. Granted, the Cavaliers are off a loss too but again, they are not a good team. Last season the Pacers were 18-17 SU off a loss, Cleveland was 15-47. Last year the Pacers were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points, so we have some value in today’s spread. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA a season ago with a top 10 road defensive efficiency ratings. The Cavs last season had the 3rd worst home point differential at minus -7.3PPG and were last in home defensive efficiency ratings. In the 4 meetings last season the Pacers won by 8 or more points. The Pacers have covered 5 of the last six meetings on this court. Lay the points. |
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10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -2.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – We like the situation and will back the home team Celtics here off a loss in the opener. Toronto is off a home win which was much tougher than it should have been against the Pelicans. The Celtics lost in Philly the other night and the main contributing factor was poor shooting by the C’s. Boston hit just 36.7% of their overall FG attempts and under 27% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages a year ago and now they are at home in a more friendly shooting environment. Last season Boston had a top 12 team at home in: margin of victory, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Granted, Toronto had good road numbers too but that was with Kawhi Leonard who is clearly one of the three best players in the entire NBA. Against a bad defensive team from a year ago, the Pelicans (23rd in DEFF), the Raptors shot just 40% a team and benefited from ‘home cooking’ and +15 free throw makes in their win. Boston is 84-49 SU versus the East since 2017 and 57-26 SU at home as a favorite in that same time frame. With the line where it is, we are basically asking the Celtics to just win this game which they’ll do by more than the spread. Boston has covered four straight at home over Toronto and the host is on a 9-0 spread run. |
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10-23-19 | Knicks +10.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: NY KNICKS +10.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:30PM ET – It’s a fresh start and the Knicks have a clean slate to start the season after tanking last year. New York doesn’t know how bad they’re going to be this season, so we expect a max effort tonight in San Antonio. In fairness to New York they will win more than 17 games this year with a semi-talented roster that can beat just about anyone in the East on any given night. Julius Randle is coming off his best season with 21PPG, 8.7RPG and 3.1APG and can play at a very high level. The backcourt is athletic with Dennis Smith Jr, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock (out) and RJ Barrett. Marcus Morris and Taj Gibson brings veteran leadership and toughness while Kevin Knox and Bobby Portis have huge upside. New York was a dismal 8-32 SU on the road last season with an average differential of minus -10.8PPG which is essentially tonight’s spread AND that record is with them trying to lose to get the #1 pick in the draft! San Antonio returns a roster of veterans and youth and basically stood pat in free agency. They do get Dejounte Murray back from injury who is a budding star, but he did miss the entire season a year ago. The Spurs were 34-10 SU a year ago at home with an average margin of victory of just +6.7PPG. San Antonio was one of the slowest paced teams at home last year which makes covering larger numbers more difficult with less chances to score for each team. San Antonio was a double-digit home favorite 8 times last year and they only covered twice. New York stays within the number here. Grab the points! |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Golden State -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET Friday, Game 4 – There are some key stats that support this wager but in laymen terms it boils down to a great team off a home loss as a favorite. The Warriors were 24-7 SU off a loss this season, 12-2 SU at home off a loss and the last six wins in a row at home off a beat are by an average of 15PPG. More specifically, when Golden State is off a home loss, they are 5-1 SU with wins by 7, 17, 14, 28 and 6 points respectively. The Warriors are 36-7 SU at home the past 3+ years in the playoffs with an average differential of +11.9PPG and only once in that time have, they lost back to back home games. Toronto shot the shit out of it in Game 3 with an effective field goal percentage of 62.8% which is basically unheard of. That is clearly abnormal too as the Warriors EFG % defense was 6th best in the NBA this season at 51%. Granted the Warriors 3-point defense was atrocious in Game 3 and a lot of that has to do with the absence of Klay Thompson and KD. Thompson will be back tonight which should make a difference in how the Warriors defend the Raptors beyond the arc tonight. The Raptors literally had everything go right in Game 3 and we just don’t see that happening in Oakland with the Warriors in a do-or-die situation. As we mentioned, defending the 3-point line will be key and we don’t see Danny Green and Kyle Lowry going 11 for 19 from downtown tonight. Steph Curry is certainly capable of a repeat performance of Game 3, but we must bet the rest of the Warriors play much better than they did in G3. The betting markets are backing Toronto tonight, yet the line is not fluctuating the way the money is flowing. That’s a clear sign to bet on Golden State tonight. |
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06-05-19 | Raptors +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
ASA play on: Toronto Raptors +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET Wednesday – The number on this game is extremely short and typically we wouldn’t like going against the Warriors at home with this low of a line, but we’ll make an exception here. This isn’t the same Warriors team as injuries has taken its toll and there are just too many to overcome or justify betting them here. In Game 2 the Warriors got a HUGE boost with Boogie back on the floor as the logged 27 minutes, grabbed 10 rebounds and added 6 big assists and scored 11-points. But now the Raptors will have a plan in place to counter his presence and take advantage of a hobbled Klay Thompson if he’s able to suit up. The other big loss that’s not being talked about is Kevon Looney who has been a big energy guy and defensive stopper for Golden State. Even with Thompson scoring 25 in the last game before being hurt and shooting 46.3% as a team the Warriors managed just a 5-point road win in Game 2. Toronto had a horrendous shooting night in Game 2 (37.2%) so even if they have a less than stellar performance tonight, they can still cover this number. Toronto already has 4 playoff road wins this post season and that includes wins in Philadelphia and Milwaukee which are as tough a venue as you find. During the regular season this Raptors team had a +4.6 point road differential which was 3rd best in the league. Golden State wasn’t their usual dominate selves at home this year with the 11th best home differential of +6.6PPG (down from +7.6PPG last year, +15.9PPG the year before). The Raptors lost just 9 road games by more than 5-points this season which correlates to their 3rd rated offensive efficiency rating on the road and 4th best DEFF rankings. In closing, even if Klay can play tonight, just how effective can he be on one leg? That’s asking too much of Steph Curry and the rest of the team to overcome. This will be close throughout so we grab the points! |
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06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
ASA play on: Golden State +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8M ET – We are betting the more experienced, defending Champions, off a loss here. Toronto again got a huge game from Siakam in Game 1 but don’t count on a repeat performance here as he consistently hasn’t done that all season long. Leonard was again fantastic for the Raptors but he clearly was laboring throughout the game. The high or energy from the Game 1 win won’t be as pronounced for Toronto in Game 2 as they have a win under their belt. The Raptors are 41-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State is 33-17 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. The probability numbers we’ve run on this game tell us overwhelmingly to bet the underdog off a loss and the heavy factor against the Raptors is winning 6 straight games against the 2 other best teams in the NBA. Golden State was 23-7 SU off a loss this season, 72-19 SU or 79% since 2015. This Warriors team is a remarkable 44-11 SU their last 55 playoff games and we’re betting they bounce back here with a win in the North. |
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05-30-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
ASA play on: Golden State +1.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET – Thursday Game 1 – The most recent memory in bettors minds right now is the Raptors beating the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals and they have bet accordingly. Give credit to the Raptors in that series win and their defense which was the difference. The Bucks literally didn’t make any adjustments in the last four games and tried to stay with their offensive philosophy which allowed the Raptors to essentially play zone defense. That won’t be a luxury against this Warriors team as they have way too many shooters to space the floor. Toronto could play off several Bucks in the last series but can’t here. The Warriors have had extra rest coming into this game and really didn’t miss a beat when Durant went down with his calf injury. In fact, they adapted and morphed into the team they were without him. Draymond Green has been a beast with Durant sidelined and provides another match up nightmare for Toronto. The Raptors were 40-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State was 33-16 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. Not to mention the veteran team and defending champion is an underdog. Before we go, we want to leave you with this. Is it more impressive that Kawhi Leonard was able to drag this team and roster to the Finals than the team LeBron took to the Finals with Love and Irving? Yeah, Leonard has been outstanding but even he can’t carry this team past the Champs. Play on Golden State in Game 1. |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Milwaukee Bucks +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Saturday, Game 6 – The Raptors have had role players step up in big moments this series, but now that the spotlight and expectations are clearly high in this elimination game, we don’t expect the same production. Kawhi Leonard has been ridiculous in this series and I would argue has done more with less than LeBron and the Cavaliers a few years ago when they won their Ship. There is a reason the Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has been mentioned as a potential coach of the year and he’ll adjust here. If Giannis is on the floor then Bledsoe can’t be. The Bucks need to surround Giannis with shooters so the Raptors can’t collapse on him. If both Bledsoe and Giannis are on the floor, then Giannis needs to move to the baseline where he can roam behind the D. The Bucks are 10-4 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +9.8PPG. The Bucks are 62-21 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-17 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Bucks road differential of +5.6PPG was second best in the NBA this season behind only the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee had the 4th best road offensive efficiency at 1.123PPG and defensive efficiency allowing just 1.068PPP which was best in the league. We won’t ignore the Bucks 22-3 SU record off a loss, 10-2 SU on the road. The clincher for us though with this wager is value. The Bucks were favored by 3-points in the last game on this floor and are now a dog of 2 or more points. That is an over-reaction by the betting public and it’s always best to bet value over “feelings”. This series gets extended to a game 7. |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -7 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -7 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Thursday, Game 5 – The Raptors sent a message in the last two games to remind everyone they had the 2nd best record in the NBA this season for a reason. But now that the venue changes and the teams head back to Wisconsin, we can expect Milwaukee to get a resounding win on their home court. Milwaukee had the second-best home record in the NBA during the regular season with a 33-8 SU record and an average differential of plus +12.1PPG. The Bucks are 10-3 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +11.1PPG which balloons to +14.7PPG at home. The Bucks are one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% and shoot 35% from beyond the arc and will find their groove again back at the Fiserv Forum. In Game 4 of this series the Raptors got HUGE production out of their bench and role players but that certainly won’t carry over on the road. Clearly the Raptors rely heavily on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue, along with a nagging knee/quad is becoming a huge factor for the Super Star as the playoffs wear on. The Bucks are 62-20 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-16 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Nobody said this series was going to be an easy one for the Bucks and winning in Toronto is certainly a tough task, but back at home the Bucks get a much-needed win by a double-digit margin. |
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05-21-19 | Bucks -3 v. Raptors | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Milwaukee -3 over Toronto, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET We’ve clearly lost value on this game with the Bucks going from an underdog in Game 3 to a favorite in tonight’s game. The Bucks starters were HORRENDOUS in Game 3, yet still could have won in double over-time. How bad were Milwaukee’s starters you ask? Middleton, Bledsoe, Antetokounmpo and Mirotic were a combined 14 of 59 from the field or 24% from the field. Those four also combined to make just 3 of 22 3-pointers. The Raptors benefitted from a non-call on a Kawhi Leonard double-dribble that led to an uncontested dunk at a critical juncture. Giannis was also called for his 6th foul on a questionable call which forced the Bucks superstar to the bench. Milwaukee has a near perfect record this season when coming off a loss with a 22-1 SU record. That’s not a coincidence either as a good coaching staff clearly knows how to adjust from one game to the next. And those wins have come by an average differential +15.4PPG. The Bucks had the 4th best road offensive efficiency rating on the road this season of 1.123PPP and a defensive efficiency of 1.068PPP which was 1st. Milwaukee’s +5.6 average point differential away from home was second best in the NBA this season. The Bucks bounce back in a big way with a double-digit win! |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +3 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +3 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 4 Monday – You know us, we are betting numbers and value, not teams. The play here is Portland at home. Teams down 0-3 in the past have not done well historically but the oddsmakers have factored that in and the over-adjustment is too great to pass up. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-12 SU record, 14-5 their last nineteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. In Game 3 the Blazers made just 40% of their field goal attempts, 31.4% from beyond the arc. Portland has the 8th best overall and 3-point shooting percentage at home this season.The Warriors are 3rd in overall shooting percentage defense but 13th in defending the 3-point line. Damian Lillard has had a tough series, but we expect him to bounce back here after a dismal -23 differential in the last game. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. Portland was a home underdog just five times this season and they won four of those games outright. The movement of the line has us on Portland in this game. |
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05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Friday, Game 2 – The results of Game 1 and the statistics therein have us betting the Bucks again in Game 2. Milwaukee is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% but in Game 1, on their home court, the Bucks managed just 39.8% as a team. From beyond the 3-point line they shot just 25% as a team which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 35%. We predict a return to norm in Game 2 and expect the Bucks to have a much better shooting night. As we said in our analysis of Game 1, the Raptors rely too much on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue became apparent late in the game. If history holds true, Kyle Lowry won’t have the night he did in Game 1 as he hit 10 of 15 FG attempts which is abnormal by his previous standards. Lowry was dreadful in three outings against the Bucks in the regular season as he averaged 6.3 points on 7-of-30 shooting from the field (1-of-20 from three) to go along with 8.3 assists and 5 rebounds. The fact that Lowry failed to score a single point on 11 tries from the field in the 122 possessions he went up against Bledsoe in all three losses the Raptors had against the Bucks this year. Milwaukee will make the adjustment here and have Bledsoe on Lowry which will again put more pressure on Leonard. The Bucks have several players that can step up and fill the void if one of the stars isn’t hitting as was the case in Game 1 with Brook Lopez. The Bucks are 61-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 36-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 69 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee has now beaten this Raptors four of five this season and rolls to a Game 2 win by double-digits. |
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05-16-19 | Blazers +7 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +7 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 2 Thursday – After breaking down Game 1 of this series we like the Blazers chances to cover the spread in Game 2. First off, Terry Stotts is a good coach and will adjust in guarding Steph Curry in the pick-n-roll where he had the most success in the opener. Secondly, the Blazers were coming off a huge 7-game series in Denver and fatigue was clearly a factor. Now they have had a little more rest and are off an embarrassing showing in Game 1 so expect a much better effort here. The Warriors did lose two home games in the opening round to the Clippers and their average home differential is just +4.5PPG in the post-season. In the opener the Warriors were up only 6-points going into the fourth quarter before the Blazers collapse. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-10 SU record, 14-3 their last seventeen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). So, expect a return to the more ‘normal’ statistics here which will lead to a Blazers cover. Ask yourself this, with Golden State off a commanding win in the opener by 22-points, why did this line open higher, with the money and tickets coming in on the Warriors, yet the line went down? Portland had the 8th best road differential in the league this year at 0PPG so they are more than capable of keeping this game close throughout. |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Wednesday, Game 1 - The Bucks are 60-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 35-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 68 wins have come by double-digits. Eric Bledsoe is averaging 16PPG in the playoffs on 47.8% shooting, Khris Middleton had a few rough shooting nights in the first two rounds but did average 16PPG in the series against the Celtics. Pat Connaughton and George Hill also provided some invaluable minutes off the bench for the Bucks in the first two rounds. Not to mention the Bucks get starter Malcolm Brogdon back for this series who makes them even deeper yet. Throw in the ‘bigs’ of Lopez, Mirotic and Ilyasova and you have a floor-spacing, 3-ball-makin bunch that are tough to defend. With the floor spaced it only make Giannis that much tougher to defend as he gets to the rim at will or drives and unselfishly kicks to open shooters. Game 7 of the Toronto/Philly series is a perfect example of why the Raptors won’t win this Eastern Conference Finals. You can’t rely solely on Kawhi Leonard to win a series. Leonard made a miraculous shot to win Game 7 against Philadelphia and put up 41 points in the process. It took Kawhi 39 shots to get to 41 and there were several opportunities for other players to take open shots, but they were reluctant to do so. Kyle Lowry is a notorious choker in the post-season, Pascal Siakam is an up-and-comer but still young and in an unfamiliar role. Marc Gasol is an adequate center but past his prime and not a rim protector. The rest of the supporting cast for the Raptors just isn’t good enough to provide Leonard with help to win this series or Game 1. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee beat this Raptors three of four this regular season and rolls a Game 1 win by double-digits. |
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05-12-19 | Blazers +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Portland Trailblazers +5.5 over @Denver Nuggets,330pm ET – We won’t ignore the fact that the Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but let’s also recognize that Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers, they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who shot over 46% during the regular season and made 36.1% of their 3-point attempts. Granted neither team is shooting it well in this series, but I trust Lillard and McCollum way more than I do the Nuggets shooters. Prior to the last two games of this series the previous eight games had an average differential of +5.25PPG and we expect this elimination game to go to the wire again. Grab the points and the underdog. |
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05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
ASA play on @Philadelphia 76ers +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET Thursday – We are playing on the ‘juvenile’ 76ers in this must win game at home tonight. It’s obvious the young 76ers still don’t full grasp the situation when Embiid is looking at cell phones on the bench, laughing in press conferences and easily distracted during games in the Playoffs. Ben Simmons isn’t much better, but when focused this team is clearly capable of beating anyone on any given night. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris who are all legitimate scorers in the NBA. Philly has won 75% of their games when coming off a loss and playing at home this season. The home team has won 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams with the average margin of victory by the home team in those seven wins being 18.4PPG. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Take the home dog as Philadelphia will extend this series. |
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05-07-19 | Blazers +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 98-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10:30PM ET – This has been a great series and even though everyone has the Rockets or Warriors in the NBA Finals, one of these two teams certainly could represent the West. With the dust settled after the first four games of this series the total differential separating these two teams is just 2 total points. All four games have been tight, and the dog has covered three straight. Even when we go back to the regular season, we find those four games were decided by an average of just 5PPG. Denver has some fantastic home efficiency and overall statistics at home this season, but Portland has some great numbers too. The Blazers were 14th in road defensive efficiency and 7th in offensive efficiency. Portland was 7th in average point differential on the road at 0PPG. Denver has struggled with their shooting in the previous five games as they’ve hit just 42.7% of their field goal attempts. The Blazers are on a solid 4-1 ATS streak when coming off a straight up loss and will keep this game close throughout. Grab the points and the dog here! |
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05-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -2 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA play on Philadelphia 76ers -2 over Toronto Raptors, 3:30PM ET Sunday – We are going contrarian here and don’t expect Toronto to bounce back off a loss in the previous game. It’s obvious the Raptors don’t have enough talent surrounding Leonard and in today’s NBA one player can’t get it done. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris and it’s proving to be too much for Toronto to overcome. The Raptors will also be short Siakam here which makes Leonard’s job that much more difficult. The home team has won 7 of the last nine meetings between these two teams and all seven wins came by more than today’s spread. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Toronto was 18-8 SU off a loss this season but just 6-4 on the road in that situation. A clear indicator that the 76ers are still being under-valued by the oddsmakers is their 6-1 ATS run, 4-1 spread record their last five home games. Philly grabs a commanding 3-1 lead in the series with a home win today! |
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05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -3.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 102 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
ASA play on: Houston Rockets -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 8:30PM ET – Everyone has jumped off the Rockets bandwagon after two losses to start this series but we’re not one of them. We bet Houston to win this series and even though they must win 4 of five against the Warriors to get it done they are still capable of doing so. Houston’s numbers on the season are just as good as Golden State in many key statistical categories. These two teams were both #1 and #2 in offensive efficiency and were #13 and #17 in defensive efficiency so they are very even teams. Houston beat a very good Utah team at home in the opening round by 32 and 20 and have an average point differential of +7.1PPG at home during the regular season. The Rockets were 31-10 SU at home during the regular season and most importantly, 13-4 SU at home when coming off a loss. Let’s not forget this Rockets team took Golden State to 7-games a year ago and are better overall this season. Golden State has some fantastic numbers on the road this season but in this scenario (up 2-0) we can see a letdown by the Champs. The money and line indicators clearly support a bet on Houston in this game. |
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05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -2 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
ASA play on: Boston Celtics -2 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET (Game 3) In Game 1 of this series the Celtics had a fantastic game plan to limit Giannis and force other Bucks to beat them. It worked flawlessly and the Celtics drubbed the Bucks big on their home court. Milwaukee then adjusted, bounced back and crushed the Celtics in Game 2. Kris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe had huge Game 2’s after struggling under the weight of the pressure in Game 1. Middleton made seven 3-pointers and totaled 28 points while Bledsoe chipped in with 21 points. Boston’s All-Star guard Kyrie Irving had a horrible shooting night in Game 2 with just nine points on 4 of 18 shooting. So, we are betting the numbers flip again in Game 3 on Boston’s home floor with the C’s off a BAD loss. The added pressure of being on the road in this opener will again get to the Bucks role players and the hot shooting they enjoyed in Game 2 won’t be the same here. Milwaukee enjoys some of the best road efficiency numbers in the NBA but again, as we’ve said in the past, they played a very soft schedule which influenced those statistics. Boston had an average differential of +6.9PPG at home while shooting 47% on their home court and allowing just 45%. Boston is 7-2 SU their last nine home games when coming off a loss and have covered 6 of the last seven clashes with the Bucks on this floor. Boston bounces back off a loss and gets a home win in Game 3. |
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04-30-19 | Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
ASA play on: Houston Rockets +5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – Tuesday, Game 2 – I made a wager on the Rockets to win this series before it started and in hind-sight wish I would have waited until after Game 1 to get better odds. The Rockets are going to win this series and the landscape of the NBA will be altered because of the results (much like the Avengers Endgame alternate reality). In any regard, the Rockets took Golden State to a 7-game series a year ago and have a better chemistry this year. Golden State has not enjoyed as big of a home court advantage this season as they have in the past which we’ll explain here. Three years ago, the Warriors were 36-5 SU at home with a differential of +15.9PPG during the regular season. Those numbers dipped a year ago to 29-12, +7.6PPG. This season the Warriors were 30-11 SU at home in the regular season but their average point differential was just +6.6PPG. Houston was great on the road this season with the 5th best road differential of +2.4PPG and an offensive efficiency rating of 1.139 points per possession (2nd). Let’s not forget the Warriors lost two home games in the first round to the Clippers who were one of the 4 worst teams in the entire playoffs. Golden State was just 10-17 ATS at home against winning teams this season while the Rockets were 11-10 ATS on the road against winning teams, and many of those games were as a chalk. Houston was a solid 19-11 SU when coming off a loss this season, 15-2 SU their last seventeen in that situation. The Rockets shot just 41.9% in Game 1 which was uncharacteristically low for them so expect a better night from the field here. Despite the poor shooting in Game 1, multiple technical at the end of the game and questionable non-calls, the Rockets still only lost by 4-points. Easy call here with the Rockets and the points. |
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04-30-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 102-123 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Tuesday 8PM ET Game 2 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. Then in Game 1 of this series the Celtics put together a fantastic game plan to stop Giannis and force the other Bucks to beat them which simply didn’t happen. Boston took control in the 3rd quarter and never looked back in a 22-point win. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. Milwaukee is nearly perfect this season when coming off a loss with a 21-1 SU record but that was during the regular season AND they can still win this game but asking them to do so by 8 or more is too much to ask. We all doubted the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 11 of their last thirteen games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and it clearly showed in Game 1 which was an easy C’s win. What makes Boston so dangerous is that if their best player, Irving, is off they have so many others that can step up and carry the scoring load. This will be another close game. Grab the points. |
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04-29-19 | Blazers +4 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-121 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4 over @Denver Nuggets, 10:30pm ET – Denver is coming off a very tough series with San Antonio and now play just a few days after a dramatic Game 7 win. Portland has had extra rest off their series with OKC and the extra game planning will be a huge factor tonight. During the regular season the Nuggets were favorited by 6-points and 4.5-points at home in the two clashes with the Blazers so you can see for yourself we’ve lost a little value here. But that won’t deter us from playing on Portland as we feel the adjustment is justified. The Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who just shot over 47% in three of five games against the Thunder and have made over 40% of their 3-point attempts in the playoffs. Portland is 16-5 ATS their last 21 games when playing with 3+ days of rest and we feel that will be a big key tonight. This goes down to the wire, grab the points! |
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04-28-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Sunday 1PM ET Game 1 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. We all started doubting the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 10 of their last twelve games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and we like their chances to keep this contest close throughout. Grab the points! |
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04-27-19 | 76ers v. Raptors -6 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
ASA play on: @Toronto Raptors -6 over Philadelphia 76ers, Saturday 7:30PM ET – Game 1 – Both teams come into this contest with similar recent results. Each team lost the opener of the series in round 1 then won 4 straight games to close out the series. The Raptors enjoy a solid home court advantage in this game as they finished the regular season with a 32-9 SU record and a +7.5-point per game differential which was 7th best in the NBA. Toronto was top 9 in the league at home in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and of their 32 home wins, 25 came by 6 or more points. Both Raptors wins at home over Philadelphia were by 11 and 17-points respectively. Conversely, the 76ers had disappointing numbers on the road this season with a negative differential of -2.7PPG which was in the bottom half of the league. Philly was 16th in OEFF ratings on the road and 17th in DEFF. The Sixers weren’t great as underdogs in this price range either this year with a 3-9 ATS record when getting 5 or more points this season. Let’s not forget, this isn’t the same Toronto team that was poorly coached in the post season and choked in the past. The veteran leadership of Leonard and Gasol has had a big impact on the rest of the roster and made this team a legitimate contender in the East. In our opinion, Philly is not in the conversation because of their home/road dichotomies. Play on the Raptors at home in Game 1. |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Denver Nuggets, 8PM ET Thursday – The Nuggets have rebounded in this series to take a 3-2 lead but it’s not over yet according to our math model. The Spurs have won 14 of the last fifteen meetings against the Nuggets on their home floor and with their backs against the wall they’ll find a way to win this game tonight. In Game 3 the Spurs were favored by -4.5 points and now the line has fluctuated down to minus -3 as of this writing. We are going against the Nuggets here for the same reason we’ve faded the Spurs a couple games in this series and that’s home/road dichotomies. Denver has a negative road differential of -2.6PPG this season which is 4th worst of all the playoff teams. They are outside the top half of the league in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency on the road this season compared to top 5in both at home. San Antonio had the 10th best home differential in the league at +6.8PPG and were top 9 in both OEFF and DEFF on their home court. A big reason why the Spurs have a solid point differential at home is their 3-point shooting in their building which is best in the NBA at 41.6%. The Nuggets are slightly better than league average in defending the 3-point line when away from home. San Antonio has been extremely good off a loss and playing at home with a 12-3 SU record this season. This series gets extended with a Spurs win by 7 or more. |
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04-24-19 | Jazz +8.5 v. Rockets | Top | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz +8.5 over Houston Rockets, Wednesday 8PM ET – Game 5 - The money is clearly on the Rockets in this game with the vast majority of tickets and money siding with the Rockets. But based on the volume of wagering the line hasn’t moved as it should. That’s a clear indicator that smart money is on the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz finished the regular season on a blistering 30-11 SU run but public bettors have forgotten that after three straight Rockets wins to start this series. The 3-1 Houston lead in this series has led to tremendous value with the Jazz here in Game 5. The Rockets potential undoing this post season will be there defense which ranked 18th in DEFF on the season. Of all the playoff teams, only the Spurs and Clippers were worse. Utah on the other hand had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA this season and it showed in Game 3 and 4. In Game 3, even though they lost, the Jazz held the Rockets to 38.4% shooting and 104 points. In Game 4, the Jazz limited the Rockets to just 35.4% from the field and 91 points. Both those numbers are drastically lower than their season average of 44.8% and 111.1PPG. The Utah Jazz have been plus 8 or more points just two times this entire season which tells us exactly how good they are. We know how well the favorites are doing in the post season but the value on this game is just too good to overlook the dog. Play on the Utah Jazz plus the points. |
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04-23-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 90-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday 9:30PM ET – San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG during the regular season. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG during the regular season. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this regular season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 12 of fourteen in this series with the favorite covering 12 of the last eighteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in Game 5, with a chance to take back the advantage in the series. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. Denver found their shooting touch in Game 2 at home and Game 4 in San Antonio. Popp had a great game plan in Game 1 and stole a win on this court. The Nuggets have adjusted and get this crucial home win tonight by double digits. |
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04-20-19 | Rockets v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz -2.5 over Houston Rockets, Saturday 10:30PM ET – Game 3 - The money is clearly on the Rockets in this game with the vast majority of tickets and cash siding with the Rockets. But based on the volume of wagering the line hasn’t moved as it should. That’s a clear indicator that smart money is on the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz finished the regular season on a blistering 30-11 SU run but public bettors have forgotten that after two beat-downs in Games 1 & 2 of this series which has led to tremendous value with the Jazz. These two teams met on this floor in early February with the Jazz favored by -7-points and now they are laying several points less than that. Utah has also won 22 of their last 26 home contests and have the 5th best overall home point differential in the NBA at +7.9PPG. They were 14th in offensive efficiency ratings at home and 3rd in DEFF. Houston is one of three teams in the NBA right now that we feel can win it all this season (Milwaukee and Golden State) but this is clearly a ‘play against’ situation. Houston was 22-19 SU on the road in the regular season with a positive road differential of +2.4PPG. The Rockets potential undoing this post season will be there defense which ranks 15th in DEFF on the road this season. Houston was just 17-23-1 ATS on the road this year, 9-11 ATS against other playoff teams when on the road. Utah is on a 13-6 SU run at home against other playoff teams and ALL thirteen of those wins came by more than today’s spread! That means when they win this game, they also cover the short number. In a must win situation, at home, the Jazz get a big win! |
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04-18-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -4 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
ASA play on San Antonio Spurs -3 over Denver Nuggets, Thurs 9PM ET – The Spurs have outplayed the Nuggets in 6 of the eight quarters of this series and if it weren’t for a HUGE 4th quarter in Game #2 this series would be 2-0 Spurs instead of 1-1. We went against San Antonio in the first two games with one main reason backing our analytics and that is the difference in home/road dichotomies for the Spurs. San Antonio has really poor road numbers but also have some really good home statistics. SA was 32-9 SU at home this year with a positive differential of +6.8PPG which was 10th best in the NBA. The Spurs had the 7th best home efficiency numbers and the 9th best defensive efficiency numbers on their home court. At the end of the regular season when Popp was resting players and adjusting his rotations the Spurs went 0-5 ATS and that has influenced the betting number on this game. If we eliminate that 0-5 ATS run the Spurs were 24-12 ATS at home on the season. Denver has not been a profitable road spread team this season with the 3rd worst ATS record in the NBA at 17-24 and just 10-11 as a road dog. Those are not statistics you would expect of a 2 seed in the West. The Nuggets regular season road differential of -2.6PPG is one of the worst differentials of all the playoff teams (only Philly, Spurs and Pistons are worse). Denver is 17th in offensive efficiency on the road this season, 16th in defensive efficiency. The chalk has covered 11 of the last sixteen and we like the Spurs here to win by 8. Lay it. |
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04-17-19 | Pacers +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +7.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET – The Pacers had a HORRIBLE shooting night in Game #1. They were awful from beyond the arc, from the stripe and everywhere else on the floor. The Pacers scored just 8-points in the entire 3rd quarter when they went 2 of 19 from the field. That was an aberration as the Pacers are the 6th best shooting team in the NBA. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA this season at minus -1PPG and were 19-22 SU away from home this season. The Pacers were 12-5 SU this season when coming off a double-digit loss so expect a bounce back here. Boston underachieved all season long but played well in Game #1. But are you betting on the Celtics team you saw play all year long or the one that showed up in the opener? Boston was 28-13 SU at home in the regular season with a point differential of +6.8PPG. The C’s have just one spread win on their home court in their last nine home games and the betting numbers suggest the public is betting based on perception instead of reality. Going back to early January the Celtics have just 7 home wins by 8 or more points. These two teams are closer than the line suggests. Grab the points. |
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04-16-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -6.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday 9PM ET – San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG during the regular season. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG during the regular season. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 10 of eleven in this series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fifteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in Game 2, off a loss, in a MUST WIN situation. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. Denver had a horrendous shooting night in Game 1 from beyond the arc and from the free throw line so expect a return to average tonight which leads to a double digit win. |
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04-14-19 | Pistons v. Bucks -12.5 | Top | 86-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Play on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Detroit Pistons. The underdogs cashed in on Saturday with the lone exception being Golden State’s blowout win over the Clippers. This game is eerily like that one and we expect a blowout by the Bucks. There are essentially 4 teams that have a legitimate shot to win it all this year and the Bucks are one of the favorites. The same can’t be said about the Pistons who rate the worst team in the post season. The second worse according to our numbers is the Clippers. Did you know the Bucks were favored in 72 games this year, second only to the Golden State Warriors (75), of which the Bucks won 54 straight up. In their 60 wins this season, 45 were by double-digits! Milwaukee was 27-14 SU against all other playoff teams this season and two of those losses were in the last few games when they had solidified the best record in the NBA. They have the best average point differential in the league at +8.9PPG and the best home court differential at +12.1PPG. Detroit was 15-26 SU away this year with the 17th worst average differential of minus -3.1PPG. The Bucks beat this Pistons team four times this season with the two home wins coming by 23-points each. The home crowd will be electric today for Milwaukee and the lead will be too big for a back door cover late. |
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04-13-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 57 m | Show |
ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Saturday 10:30PM ET – Let’s make sure we are clear on this. The 2019 Spurs are not the Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker version. San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 10 straight in this series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fourteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in this opener. Denver was recently favored by -4.5 points at home over the Spurs and beat them 113-85. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. This game will be blowout by the time the 4th quarter starts. |
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04-10-19 | Kings v. Blazers -8 | Top | 131-136 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -8 over Sacramento Kings, 10:30PM ET – We’ve won a lot of money this year playing on or against the Kings and will finish off the regular season with a wager against them tonight. Portland has a lot to play for tonight and the Kings do not. With a win the Blazers have a chance to secure the 3rd seed in the West. That would mean home court in the first round and avoiding a red-hot Utah Jazz team. The Blazers have won 7 straight at home and those wins have come by an average of 8PPG. Portland has the 3rd best overall home differential in the league this year at +8.5PPG and are the 2nd most efficient offensively at home. Sacramento has played especially well at home this season but not as well on the road. The Kings road point differential is a negative 3.7PPG which is 19th worse in the league. Portland will take advantage of a Sacramento D that is 21st in the NBA in road defensive efficiency allowing 1.128 points per possession. The Kings are just 2-7 SU their last nine on the road and have yet to face the Blazers in Portland this season. Typically, we would be concerned about lost line value here but look at the Kings three most recent road games against similar teams to the Blazers. At Utah the Kings were +10, at Spurs +10.5 and at Houston +10 so the line here is not out of whack. Portland was double-digit home favorites over the Grizzlies, Mavs and Suns recently who are worse than the Kings, but not by a whole lot. Easy call here with Portland at home minus the points! |
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04-09-19 | Nuggets v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
ASA play on: @Utah Jazz -2.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – The Jazz are a dangerous team right not and not someone I’d want to face in the playoffs. Utah has won 7 of their last eight games, with the lone loss a disappointing showing against the Lakers. The Jazz have won 12 of their last fourteen home games, including 7 straight. Of their last seven home wins all but one has come by 9 or more points. On the season the Jazz have one of the best overall home point differentials in the NBA at +7.8PPG. For being one of the best teams in the league this year the Nuggets haven’t been great on the road. Denver has a negative point differential of -2.4PPG on the road this year with a 20-20 SU record. If we dig deeper, we find that the Nuggets are just 2-13 SU on the road their last 15 when facing a current playoff team. In other words, they don’t beat the leagues better teams when playing on the road. Utah has beaten the Nuggets on this court 5 straight times and all five have come by 6 or more points. Easy call with the Jazz tonight. |
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04-07-19 | Magic v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA play on: @Boston Celtics -4.5 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – Both teams have plenty to play for here as the Magic need a win to clinch a playoff spot in the East, while Boston is fighting for the 4th seed and home court in the first round. The Celtics look like they flipped the switch here recently and are rounding into the team everyone thought they’d be all season long. Reports are that head coach Stevens and Kyrie Irving are on the same page right now and it’s starting to show in the teams play. Boston has won three straight all against desperate teams like Orlando with wins over Miami (twice) and Indiana. Let’s look at today’s number and talk about value. The Celtics were just a 7-point favorite at home over Miami and Indiana at home. The C’s were favored by 1-point in Indiana who is the current 5th seed. Now they are laying this short number at home against the Magic. The reason the number is what it is, is because the Magic are playing well and desperate too. But are they playing well or is it the competition? Orlando is 9-2 SU their last eleven games but look at six of those W’s: Cleveland, Atlanta (twice), New Orleans, Memphis and New York who are some of the worst teams in the league. Their only good win in that stretch of games came at home against Philly. They also recently lost at Toronto by 12-points who are like the Celtics. The last time these two teams met was in Orlando and the Celtics were favored by 7-points. Now they’re laying less than that at home. Orlando is 15-24 SU on the road with an average differential of minus -1.7PPG. Boston has the 8th best home point differential in the league at +7.2PPG. The C’s are a team that can win it all this year, the Magic are not. Lay the points! |
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04-06-19 | Nets +7 v. Bucks | Top | 133-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +7 over Milwaukee Bucks, 5PM ET – The thought process for this game is pretty straight forward. The Bucks literally have nothing left to play for with the best record in the NBA and home court throughout the playoffs. The Nets control their own destiny but need to win to get a spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. We wouldn’t make this bet if we still didn’t have value in the number though and based on these teams recent meeting, we get it here. The Bucks were just favored by -1.5 points in Brooklyn earlier this week so the natural swing would have them -9 or -10 in this game. The line opened -8.5-points but dropped immediately to where it is now. That tells us one HUGE factor in this game. MVP Giannis won’t play. We know he wants too but the Bucks would be stupid to play him here, especially with a tender ankle. Milwaukee is already short handed with several starters and key contributors out with injuries so covering any kind of spread is going to be tough. Plus, the Bucks are off a big come from behind road win in Philly AND just beat this Nets team earlier in the week. Brooklyn in the way more desperate team here and worth a bet. |
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04-05-19 | Raptors v. Hornets +5.5 | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA play on: @Charlotte Hornets +5.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – The Bucks win last night have assured Milwaukee the best record in the East and overall NBA so the Raptors main concern is being healthy going into the post season. Charlotte still has an outside shot at making the playoffs but essentially needs to win out and get help from other teams. These same two teams just met a few weeks ago and the Raptors were favored by 11.5 points at home. The Hornets won that game 115-114. As you can see the line adjustment here by the oddsmakers is too great. Based on that last game the Hornets should be a slight favorite here. Revenge doesn’t work here for Toronto as it’s a meaningless game to them. Charlotte has been very good at home this year with a 24-15 SU record and a home differential of +4PPG. The Hornets have won and covered two straight as a home dog as they recently beat Boston at home as a 4-point dog and San Antonio as a 4-point dog. Charlotte is also 4-1 SU at home their last five games and the one loss was by 4-points to Philly. Toronto has won 5 straight games, so their sense of urgency is not the same as it is for Charlotte. The value in the line is key here along with the team that is more desperate. Grab the points! |
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04-01-19 | Blazers -3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 132-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 80PM ET – The Blazers are battling for the 3rd or 4th seed in the West and home court in the first round of the playoffs. Minnesota is gearing up for the offseason and a little R&R. Portland lost a key piece to their team when center Nurkic was lost for the season due to a horrific leg injury but Enes Kanter was brought in as an insurance policy if something like this happened. Without Nurkic the Blazers still outrebound Detroit 68-52 in their last outing despite losing. Kanter delivered 20 points and 15 rebounds in 34 minutes for his first double-double since taking over the starting spot. Kanter isn’t Nurkic, but the dropoff isn’t as dramatic as you might think. Minnesota has their own injuries to worry about. The Wolves are without Rose, Teague, Gibson and Covington who are all major contributors. Portland had won 8 of nine games before a loss in Detroit and we expect a bounce back here. The Blazers are 18-9 SU off a loss this year and considering the low nature of this number we expect a SU and ATS win. Portland has some poor early season road numbers but have since improved to 9th in overall road differential at -.1PPG. Again, that’s marginal considering tonight’s circumstances. Portland is on a 10-3 ATS road run and we like them here against a team like Minnesota that has called it a season. |
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04-01-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -5.5 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -5.5 over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET – We like the line and money indicators early on here and feel the move on the line is to attract Piston’s backers. We won’t bite and will side with the more desperate Pacers at home off a loss at home. Both are fighting for seeding position in the East but the Pacers are in 5th right now, tied with Boston who holds the tie breaker over them. Despite how Detroit is currently playing, we can’t ignore their 14-24 SU road record or their -3.4PPG differential which was 19th worse in the NBA. Indiana has been fantastic at home this season with a 28-10 SU record and the 3rd best home point differential of +8.9PPG. Indiana played poorly in their last home game against the Magic and will bounce back here. The Pacers are 10-4 SU at home this year off a loss, 3-1 when at home and off a home loss. Earlier this season the Pacers beat the Pistons at home by 37 and we feel they win this game big again, especially considering the Pistons will be without Blake Griffin in this one. |
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03-31-19 | Wizards +11 v. Nuggets | Top | 95-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
ASA Washington Wizards +11 @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – Washington is officially eliminated from the playoffs, but they continue to play hard with Bradley Beal leading the way. It certainly helps that a few newcomers from the trade deadline are still trying to impress coaches and management. The Wiz are coming off a game a few nights ago in Utah and took the Jazz to the wire before losing 124-128. If they bring that same energy tonight this will be another easy cover. These same two teams recently met in Washington with the Nuggets winning by 5-points. Denver is in a tough spot here as they are coming off two huge road games in Houston and at OKC and have MUCH bigger games on deck with Golden State and then San Antonio. The Nuggets are battling the Warriors for the #1 seed in the West, so they’ll get caught looking ahead to that game, especially since they recently beat this same Wizards team. Denver isn’t playing their best basketball of the season right now with an average negative differential of -6.4PPG in their last five games. Washington has covered 4 of the last five in the series and get another cover here. Grab the points. |
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03-30-19 | Blazers v. Pistons -5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Detroit Pistons -5 over Portland Trailblazers, 7:00PM ET – These same two teams just met in Portland where the Blazers won by 5. Detroit was in the middles of a 5-game road trip while the Blazers had 2 days rest. Now the roles have flipped. The Pistons are home and rested, Portland is off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in four nights. The Pistons recently played three of the best teams in the West on the road (Denver, Golden State and this Portland team) and lost all three by a combined 15 points. Prior to that road trip, the Pistons had won 9 straight home games with 4 of those nine victories coming against other playoff teams and they just beat another in the Magic. Detroit is 24-13 SU at home on the season with a +2.9-point differential. Portland had center Nurkic in their most recent win over Detroit, but he has since been lost for the season with a horrible leg injury. Without Nurkic and another starter McCollum the Blazers depth will be tested in this back-to-back situation. Detroit is playing with revenge and have done extremely well at home against teams with winning records (6-0 ATS run). Portland now 0-4 ATS streak when playing without rest. Lay the points! |
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03-28-19 | Magic v. Pistons -3 | Top | 98-115 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
ASA play on: Detroit Pistons -3 over Orlando Magic, 7:00PM ET – Orlando is off a HUGE win over Miami which vaulted them into 8th in the East and we expect a letdown here. In the game against the Heat, the Magic shot below 42% as a team but had a huge rebounding advantage over Miami. They won’t have that advantage here against a Pistons team that is 13th in the league in total rebounds. We laid -4.5 points the other night with the Heat who were 8th in the East at the time, so we’ll lay less points with a better Detroit team at home and off a few losses. The Pistons just played three of the best teams in the West (Denver, Golden State and Portland) and lost all three by a combined 15 points. Prior to their current road trip, the Pistons had won 9 straight home games with 4 of those nine victories coming against other playoff teams. Another indicator of line value here is the spread on two of those home games when they were favored by -1.5 points over the Raptors and -2.5 over the Pacers. Granted, the Magic are hot right now, but they’re not nearly as good as those two team but are in a similar price range. Orlando has won six in a row but four of those W’s came against Cleveland, Atlanta, New Orleans and Memphis. Orlando won 5 of their last six games at home and now travel to Detroit who is 23-13 SU at home on the season with a +2.9-point differential. Prior to this current hot streak, the Magic had lost 4 straight on the road and are 2-5 SU their last seven away with all five losses coming by more than tonight’s spread. |
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03-23-19 | Pistons v. Blazers -5 | Top | 112-117 | Push | 0 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
ASA play on: #528 Portland Trailblazers -5 over Detroit Pistons, 10PM ET – First we’ll apologize for an abbreviated analysis today. The NCAA Tourney has us extremely busy. But rest assured we’ve done all the work as usual with our handicapping process but are limited with time for write ups. Both teams have plenty to play for as they battle for better position in their perspective conferences. We are aware of Detroit’s current 15-5 SU record but they haven’t been a good road team all season long with a 14-21 SU away mark. The Pistons road point differential of -3.2PPG is 16th in the league and a big reason why is their offensive struggles away from home (23rd in road OEFF ratings). Portland has been fantastic at home this season with a 27-9 SU record and an average differential of +8.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating on their home court this season, averaging 1.170 points per possession. Taking a closer look at Detroit’s road results we see they’ve struggled against good teams on the road. Against playoff teams recently they lost at Miami by 34, Brooklyn by 28, San Antonio by 12, at Boston by 8 and at Utah by 6-points. Portland has had some impressive home wins lately against some of the best teams in the West and most recently beat a Pacers team at home by 8 who is rated better than the Pistons in the East. Even without McCollum we like the Blazers to get a double-digit home win here. Lay it! |
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03-20-19 | Wizards -2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 120-126 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
ASA play on: Washington Wizards -2.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Somebody in the Bulls front office needs to sit down head coach Jim Boylan and ask him what the hell he is doing? The Bulls currently sit a game and a half in front of the Cavs for a better chance at securing a better pick in this year’s draft. In any event, the Bulls return home off a 3-game road trip and are off a win in their previous game so expect a letdown here. Chicago has NO home court advantage as they own the worst point differential in the league on their home court of -8.7PPG. Chicago is the least efficient offensive team in the league at home and the 2nd worst in defensive efficiency. Granted the Wiz have been a horrible road team but they are still mathematically alive for the 8th seed in the East and have something to play for. Washington comes into this game off a loss and a horrendous shooting night by Bradley Beal so expect a concentrated effort here. Washington has won 3 of their last five games overall and are a healthier unit coming into this game. We like the added incentive of a few former Bulls (Portis and Parker) who were traded to the Wizards at the trade deadline, facing their previous team. Both have played much better since the deal and both were instrumental in a 9-point win here earlier this month. Take the better team with more to play for in this match up and lay the short number. |
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03-19-19 | Pacers v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Clippers -4.5 over Indiana Pacers, 10:30PM ET – We’re not being stubborn here, we’re betting numbers and value, and the best value on the board today is the Clippers. Yes, we’ve lost with them twice in a row, but they had both games covered until very late in the game before the Bulls and Nets got back door covers. The Clippers are playing great right now and look like a tough out in the Western Conference playoffs this year. They have won 10 of their last 13 games, including 6-1 L7. In their last five games, which includes a loss, they have an average point differential of +4.4PPG. Those ten wins in this current run for the Clippers have come by an average of 12.1PPG and ALL but one of those victories were by more than tonight’s spread. The Pacers are in a tough spot here coming off a close loss in Portland last night, playing their 3rd in four nights (which includes a game in the higher altitude of Denver) and 4th game in six days. Their last three games have come against the much tougher Western Conference too. Both teams are fighting for a better seeding spot in their Conference, but the Clippers have been at home, are rested and should be focused off two straight close wins. The Pacers 22nd ranked road defensive efficiency unit catches up to them here against a Clippers offense that ranks 1st in efficiency their last five games. |
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03-17-19 | Nets v. Clippers -6 | Top | 116-119 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Clippers -6 over Brooklyn Nets 9PM ET – We were counting the Clippers as a “winner” in their last game against the Bulls, as they were up 15-points late, but then let the backdoor cover happen. Count that as a lesson learned which won’t happen here against the Nets, especially with the smaller number. Prior to their two most recent games, the Clippers had won 5 games in a row by an average of 14PPG, and they’ve hit 6 of their last seven, all by a margin of more than today’s spread. The Clippers are 16th in home point differential at +3.4PPG, the 10th most efficient home offense but 23rd in home defensive efficiency ratings. LA has been good their past five games as they rank 7th in the league in average point differential (even with a loss in the mix) at +5.4PPG. They also have the best offensive efficiency numbers in that same 5-game span as they average 1.184 points per possession. The Nets are in a touch scheduling situation here as they played last night in Utah and will be playing their 3rd straight road game against a playoff team from the West. Brooklyn was a +7.5-point dog in OKC, plus 9 in Utah and those two teams are within two games of the Clippers in the West. The Nets lost both games by 12 and 16 points. Brooklyn is pretty much entrenched in the 6th – 8th seed in the East so this game isn’t as important to them. The Clippers on the other hand are just 2.5 games out of the 4th seed in the West which would be home court in the first round so they have way more to play for. Brooklyn is just 3-9 SU, 2-10 ATS when playing the second night of a back-to-back this season |
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03-16-19 | Pacers v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 100-102 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
ASA play on: #514 Denver Nuggets -7 over Indiana Pacers, 9PM ET – At first glance this line looks high considering the Pacers are a top 4 seed in the East and fighting for their playoff seeding lives. But Denver also has a lot to play for as they sit just one game behind the Warriors for the top overall record in the West. The Nuggets are one of a handful of teams that can win the NBA Championship and as they have 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the league and are 12th in DEFF. Their efficiency numbers at home are even better yet and they win on their home court by an average of 11.2PPG which is the second-best number in the league. The Pacers have some solid road efficiency numbers and an average road differential of -.3PPG which is 9th best but that clearly won’t get a cover today in Denver. When we evaluate the spread on this game, we can compare the Pacers last two road games in Philly and Milwaukee where they were +6 and +10 but got blown out in each. Denver is coming off a very close home win over a bad Dallas team which should serve as a wake-up call here. The Nuggets are 15-8 SU against the East this season and against comparable Eastern Conference teams at home they’ve beaten Philly by 16, Toronto by 8 and Boston by 9. They did lose to the Bucks at home, but Milwaukee is on another level. In usual fashion we will play contrarian here and go opposite of the money. BET DENVER MINUS! |
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03-15-19 | Bulls v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 121-128 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Clippers -8.5 over Chicago Bulls, 10:30PM ET – We successfully played against the Clippers in their last game against the Blazers as they were in a tough scheduling situation. Now with rest, we expect them to return to the form that saw them win 5 games in a row by an average of 14PPG. Included in that five-game winning streak the Clippers beat a similar team to the Bulls, the Knicks, by 21-points when they were favored by 10. The Bulls were officially eliminated from the post season in their last game and it clearly looks like they’ve quit on the season. The Bulls are just 1-5 SU their last six games and the last three losses have come by 8, 23 and 16 points. Their most recent defeat was at home to the Lakers by 16 and the other LA team isn’t nearly as good as this one. Chicago has the 6th worst road point differential in the NBA at minus -7PPG, rank 28th in offensive efficiency on the road and 17th in road defensive efficiency. The Clippers are 16th in home point differential at +3.3PPG, the 10th most efficient home offense but 23rd in home defensive efficiency ratings. LA has been really good their past five games as they rank 2nd in the league in average point differential (even with a loss in the mix) at +8.2PPG. They also have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in that same 5-game span. The Bulls have not covered a came in their last six road contests against a team with a winning percentage greater than .600 and will nothing to play for here, the Bulls get beat by double-digits. Lay the points with the Clippers. |
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03-14-19 | Thunder v. Pacers | Top | 106-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -1 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET – This isn’t a good spot for the Thunder as they are off a game last night and have a HUGE game on deck with the Warriors. OKC was lucky to cover last night as the Nets outplayed them for 85% of the game but didn’t get calls late. The Thunder took a lead with 6-minutes to play which then pushed to double-digits and eventually a cover. The Thunder starters logged big minutes last night and OKC’s depth is a concern playing back to back nights. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, but the Pacers situation is a little more desperate as they are just 2-3 SU their past five games. The Pacers have the 3rd best home point differential in the NBA at +8.7PPG which can be attributed to their #1 ranked defensive efficiency unit at home allowing just 1.015 points per possession. You can see for yourself the value in this line as the last time these two teams met in Oklahoma City, the Thunder were favored by 1-point. It looks very easy to take the Thunder on the road here as they are one of the best teams in the West but we’re not about to bet the way Vegas wants us to. Play Indiana at home minus the points. |
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03-13-19 | Nets +7 v. Thunder | Top | 96-108 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +7 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET – The public money has flowed in on the Thunder yet the oddsmakers are reluctant to move this line any higher than it is. That tells us they over-compensated on the Thunder from the get-go. Brooklyn has earned their spot in the East with a great second half of the season surge with a 27-15 SU streak since early January. Most recently the Nets have won 4 straight games overall and 3 of their last four on the road. OKC has hit a hiccup here in the final stretch of the regular season which has seen them go 4-6 SU their last ten games. Granted, the injury to Paul George certainly didn’t help. But the Thunder haven’t been their usual self at home with a 2-2 SU record their last four games but the two wins came by a combined 5-points. The Thunder home differential is +6.5PPG which is 9th best in the league. Brooklyn is around ‘average’ or 16th in the NBA with a road differential of -2.7PPG. The Nets differentials in their past five games are outstanding as they are +9.2PPG, have shot over 45% as a team and held foes to under 38% shooting which is fantastic. OKC has struggled shooting it of late as they’ve hit just 42.3% in their last five games. The Nets have covered 5 of the last six here and will grab the cash as a dog in this setting. |
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03-12-19 | Blazers -2 v. Clippers | Top | 125-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -2 over LA Clippers, 10:30PM ET - Let’s first address the fact that the Clippers are playing well and clearly haven’t quit since the trading deadline. It’s a testament to Doc Rivers and his staff keeping this team together and playing for each other. But we must fade them in this situation. The Clippers are coming off a blowout win over the Celtics last night and now face a stiff test against the Blazers. Portland has fallen from the 3rd seed in the West to the 5th (no home court in the first round) and have just a 2-game lead on the Clippers. Portland is just a half-game behind the Thunder for 4th in the Western Conference. The Blazers recently had a solid road trip going 6-2 SU with quality wins over playoff bound: Boston, Philadelphia, Brooklyn and Charlotte who is currently 1.5 games out in the East. The Clippers have gotten two good wins at home in their last two games over Boston and OKC but prior to that their three most recent home wins were against the Knicks, Mavs and Suns who have a combined 56-145 SU record. Portland comes into this game with 2 days rest while the Clippers played last night so fatigue becomes a factor here. The Clippers are just 3-5 ATS as a dog in this price range while the Blazers are 7-4 ATS as a small favorite. The Trailblazers are 5-1 ATS the last six meetings and get a much-needed win tonight. |
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03-10-19 | Rockets -9 v. Mavs | Top | 94-93 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
ASA play on: #511 Houston Rockets -9 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET – We’re going to give you some added advice with this bet Sunday and that’s a future bet on the Rockets to win it all this season. Don’t wait to bet it either as you’ll steadily lose value as the season wears on. The Rockets are playing lights out right now with a 7-game winning streak as they climb the standings in the West. The Rockets have been impressive with three straight double-digit wins over three of the best teams in the East. They also have a 6-point win in Golden State in this stretch of games. So even though we are laying a premium price on this game as a 9-point road favorite it’s justified. The Mavs look like they’ve called it a season with four straight losses and just one win in their last ten games. In their last nine losses all but one has come by 10 or more points. The Mavericks have beaten the Rockets twice this season, so they won’t take them for granted here. Houston is 4-1 ATS their last five meetings in Dallas. Lay the point with the Rockets today! |
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03-09-19 | Wizards v. Wolves -7 | Top | 130-135 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: #574 Minnesota Timberwolves -7 over Washington Wizards, 8PM ET – Are you asking yourself, why are the T’Wolves favored by 7-points in this matchup? We feel the number isn’t high enough and our computer analytics predict a double-digit win by Minnesota. Despite a disappointing overall season, the Wolves are 21-10 SU at home with a +/- differential at home of +5.4PPG (12th in NBA). They have some solid home wins of late over OKC by 11, Sacramento by 7, Houston by 10, LA Clippers by 10 and a 1-point loss to Denver. The Wolves home/road dichotomies are drastically different which is why they are an attractive bet here. The other part of the equation here is Washington on the road and playing without rest on the road for the second consecutive night. The Wiz are 9-25 SU away from home this season with a +/- differential of MINUS -8.3PPG WHICH IS 4TH WORST in the NBA. The Wolves will put up plenty of points here against a Wizards defense that is 28th in the NBA in road shooting percentage defense against and last in the league in points allowed per game away from home at 119.1PPG. This is also a quick revenge game for the Wolves as they were just beat in Washington by the Wizards 135-121 earlier this month. Washington is just 2-8 ATS the last 10 here and it gets a loss worse after tonight. Lay it with Minnesota. |