ASA PLAY ON Under 49 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - Both teams want to run the ball in this game which eats clock and shortens the game. We know the Eagles run it more than any other team in the NFL (#1 in carries per game) and they rank dead last in the NFL in pass attempts per game. They are averaging 228 YPG rushing in the playoffs and facing a KC defense that has been on a drastic decline late in the season stopping the run. They’ve allowed an average of 133 YPG rushing over their last 7 games despite playing only 1 team during that stretch that ended the season ranked in the top 10 in rushing. The Chiefs offense ran it 35 times last week vs Buffalo and we expect them to attack the weaker part of Philly’s D which is their run defense (although still very good). The Eagles pass D ranks #1 in the NFL and they allow very few big play with just 7.6% of WR’s targets going for more than 20 yards, by far the best in the NFL. So even when passing, this looks like a dink and dunk game for the Chiefs. The strength of both teams is on the defensive side of the ball with both ranking in the top 10 in YPP & YPG allowed while ranking in the top 5 in PPG allowed. The Eagle defense has allowed just 1 team to reach 24+ points since October 1st and the KC defense has allowed only 5 teams to top 24 points in 19 games this season. Both rank in the bottom half of the NFL in pace (seconds per play) and both are coming off very high scoring games which gives us some value on the Under here. 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls have gone Under and we don’t think this one will be a shootout. Under is the call.

ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - Super Bowl rematch from a few years ago where KC won 38-35 despite getting outgained 417 to 340. We like the script to flip here and the Eagles to win. The value is with the Eagles here in our opinion. KC was just favored by 1 point at home vs a Buffalo team we have power rated slightly below Philadelphia yet we’re getting the same number on a neutral site here. If you simply look at the statistics, you’d be surprised the KC is the favorite here. The Chiefs have been out gained this season on a YPP and YPG basis. They also have a negative margin in terms of YPC (rush) and yards per pass attempt. Philly is plus in all of those categories and by a wide margin. We understand that KC has been winning all season despite that, but we think it ends here. The Chiefs will have trouble slowing down the Eagles running game here. KC was really solid vs the run early in the season but down the stretch they were poor allowing 133 YPG last 7 games and gave up at least 4.6 YPC in 6 of those games & only ONE of those opponents finished the season ranked in the top 10 in rushing. Now they face a Philadelphia rushing attack that finished 2nd in the NFL behind Baltimore and is averaging 228 YPG rushing in their 3 playoff games. The Eagles have an advantage on both sides of the ball in the trenches with one of the top OL & DL in the NFL. On that note of being stronger at the line of scrimmage, the Eagles had a YPC (rush) advantage of +0.8 while KC was -0.3 in that key statistic. They average over 70 more YPG compared to KC on offense and allow 35 fewer YPG defensively. Philly has been a dog 3 times this season and won all 3 games outright and the underdog has now covered 17 of the last 23 Super Bowls. The one true advantage the Chiefs have is Mahomes who is much better than Hurts. We get that but will that be enough to overcome the other advantages the Eagles have? We don’t think so. Philly wins the Super Bowl.

#104 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -120 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - Been there and done that. KC is sitting in their 7th straight AFC Championship game and going for a 3 peat while Buffalo has never won a Super Bowl and continues to fall short in the playoffs. We like the home team with the short spread here. We haven’t been big KC fans this year as they continue to win close games but they do just that, win close games which this is expected to be. Mahomes is 3-0 both SU & ATS vs Allen in the playoffs and we think they win at home again. Both teams were fortunate last week but especially Buffalo. They played host to the Ravens and were dominated getting outgained 7.3 YPPG to 4.6 YPP but benefitted from 3 Baltimore turnovers (0 for Buffalo) and a dropped 2 point conversion by Ravens TE Andrews which would have sent the game to OT. KC was also outplayed in the stats, but didn’t benefit from a single Houston turnover and still found a way to win as they seem to always do. The Chiefs were as healthy as they’ve been all season last week with their full starting defense available and only 1 key offensive player out. They picked up nearly 3 weeks of “rest” leading into last week’s game while Buffalo had to play in both rounds of the playoffs. Mahomes has been fantastic as a favorite of 3 or less or a dog rolling up a 27-9 career ATS record in that spot. With this spread sitting where KC just basically has to win at home, we can’t pass it up.

#102 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -6 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were on the Eagles last week (released them on Friday at -6) and had a bit of rough luck as they won by 6 but missed 2 extra points. We’ll grab them again this week vs division rival Washington. These 2 met twice this season with Philly winning by 8 at home and losing by 3 on the road. Their road loss came with an asterisk as the Eagles led 14-0 in that game in the 1st quarter and lost their QB Hurts to a concussion. They played the rest of the game with back up Kenny Pickett and still led by 13 in the 4th quarter. The Commanders took the 36-33 win with a late TD with just 6 seconds remaining. Philly outgained Washington 5.7 YPP to 5.1 YPP in the 2 games combined and rushed for 228 and 211 yards in those meetings so we look for the Birds to control the trenches again in this one. Washington is a bit fortune to be here. They were outgained by 1.4 YPP in their win over Tampa Bay and outgained again by 1.1 YPP in their win @ Detroit last week. They have a ridiculous +6 turnover margin in those two games which is the main reason they are sitting in this spot. Situationally this is a very difficult spot for the Commanders. They are playing their 4th straight road game while Philadelphia is playing their 5th straight home game. This is just the 8th time since 2000 where a team is playing their 4th straight road game in the playoffs. The previous 7 teams that fell into that situation were 0-7 SU. Washington is also looking to become just the 2nd team in NFL history to win 3 straight games as an underdog in the playoffs. The Eagles have a few players banged up including QB Hurts but it looks like they’ll all be OK to play here. A rookie QB has never played in the Super Bowl and we don’t think it will happen this year with Jayden Daniels. We’ll call Philly to win by at least a TD on Sunday.

#394 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills +1.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 6:30 PM PM ET - This game opened with the Bills as a favorite and flipped the Baltimore -1.5 with lots of public backing for the Ravens. We’ll now jump on the home dog as the Bills are getting points at home in the playoffs for the first time since 1967. There were 2 road favorites in last weeks Wildcard round, Chargers and Vikings, and both lost outright. Road favorites in the NFL playoffs are now on a 3-12 ATS run. Part of the line move is most likely due to the fact that Baltimore rolled Buffalo at home in the regular season by a final score of 35-10. However, that game was way back in September, Buffalo was really banged up at the time, it was a short week for the Bills after playing on Monday night, and Baltimore was 1-2 on the season so it was a huge home game for them. We don’t take much away from that result. Bills are 9-0 at home this season (54-18 SU at home since McDermott took over as head coach) while Baltimore was 6-3 on the road. Buffalo averaged 34 PPG at home this season and scored at least 30 in 8 of their 9 at home. The Birds allowed more PPG on the road this season than they did at home and scored fewer points on the road compared to their home games. The Bills defense ranks 6th in the NFL in EPA vs the run so they match up well with this Baltimore offense. Lamar Jackson has a losing playoff record and he’s only played 2 playoff games away from home in his career (1-1 record). Buffalo was embarrassed earlier this season and now they have a little extra motivation as they’ve been bet to a home dog despite having the better record and being undefeated at home. You can be sure that’s been discussed. Let’s also remember that the 2 teams with the best record in the NFL this year were KC & Detroit (15-2 and both had byes last week) and Buffalo beat both. We’ll take the Bills to win this one outright.

#392 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 over LA Rams, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Philly didn’t play great last week offensively (5.0 YPP) but they still topped the Packers 22-10 due to their strong defense. The Eagles stop unit has been lights out this season ranking #1 in the NFL in total defense, YPP allowed and passing YPG allowed. Since their bye week (in week 5) the Eagles have been easily the best defense in the NFL. During that stretch Philly has allowed only 4.3 YPP and 1.4 points per drive which is the best in the NFL. They’ve also held teams without a first down on 45% of their drives during that stretch which is by far the best in the league. They’ve held 9 of their last 10 opponents to 20 points or less and we look for the Rams to struggle here offensively. The Eagles might not need to do much offensively to cover this number. QB Hurts had missed 3 weeks leading into last week so he was a bit rusty but with a game under his belt we expect better results on offense. Philly should have plenty of success running the ball which is what the love to do (56% running plays - #1 in the NFL). The Rams defense ranks near the bottom of the league in YPG rushing and YPC and in their meeting in late November, LA allowed over 300 yards rushing on 7.0 YPC vs the Eagles. That was a 37-20 Philadelphia win on the road and now we get them at home. Teams that beat a team in the regular season and then face them in the playoffs are 42-24 SU in those games. The Rams are in a rough spot here with the LA fires affecting their practice time and they were forced to move their game to Arizona last week. Now they much travel across the country and play in cold weather (32 degrees and possible snow) which isn’t ideal for a warm weather, dome type team. The Rams are also on a short week playing on Monday night and now making the long travel. We like the Eagles to win this by at least a TD so we’ll lay it on Sunday.

#388 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -8 over Houston Texans, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - The Chiefs are as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the season for this one. They sat key starters in the final week of the regular season and then had last week off. KC has their entire starting defense available for the first time since week 7 and their entire starting offense is also healthy with the exception of WR Rice. While the did struggle to cover the spread this season despite their 15-2 SU record, the Chiefs played much better down the stretch covering 3 straight winning those games by 14, 8 and 29 points (minus the season finale @ Denver where none of their regulars played). We expect the best version of Kansas City at home on Saturday. Houston is coming off a win as a home dog last week beating the Chargers 32-12 with the Texans benefitting from 4 LAC interceptions including a pick 6. Since 2011, teams that win in the Wildcard round as an underdog are just 2-20 SU in the Divsional round so not a great spot for Houston. Let’s face it, the Texans were pretty darn average all season. They finished 10-7 but played in the weakest division in football (all other teams below .500) and their point differential on the year was +0. They beat 1 team all regular season that finished the year with a winning record and they were 1-5 SU vs playoff teams. It’s going to be cold in KC on Saturday afternoon (windchill around 10 degrees) and dome teams simply haven’t played well in that situation with a 2-7 SU record when temps are below 30 degrees. KC beat this Houston team by 8 a few weeks ago, and now that they are rested and healthy, we’ll call for a double digit win on Saturday.

#398 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams +2.5 over Minnesota Vikings, Monday at 8 PM ET - This game is being played in Phoenix due to the LA wildfires. The line was pick-em before they announced the move from LA to Phoenix. The line has moved to +2.5 which we think is some decent value as we’re getting nearly a FG more than we would have and LA doesn’t have a great home field advantage to being with. In fact, LA has a better road record this year than they do at home. They also average more YPP away from home and allow fewer YPP. The Rams have a huge situational edge here in our opinion. They had a mini bye last week facing Seattle at home and the Rams were able to sit most of their players. Minnesota, on the other hand, had an “all in” game @ Detroit which was a battle for the #1 seed and the Vikings were dominated 31-9. Now they travel again after that physical and emotional battle with the Lions. Detroit has had a rough effect on teams the following week as teams that face the Lions are 4-12 ATS the next week (this season) and 18-31 ATS over the last 3 years in that spot. LA struggled early in the year due to injuries but since getting full strength on offense with WR Kupp and Nacua back they are 8-2 (minus last week’s loss vs Seattle since they sat). They averaged +0.5 YPP more this season with Kupp & Nacua both in the line up. Their defense also drastically improved as the season progressed. After their first 7 games, the Rams allowed 2.44 points per drive and gave up a TD on 27% of opponents drives (both 28th in the NFL). Since then, they have allowed 2.04 points per drive and a TD on 22% of opponents drives (16th and 13th ranking). The point is, this team is much better than their season long record / stats. The Rams were 2-3 SU vs other playoff teams this year but they outgained 4 of those 5 opponents including beating this Minnesota team by 10 points. The Vikes were 3-3 vs other playoff teams but were outgained in 5 of those 6 games so Minnesota was fortunate to win 3 of those games. They were also 9-1 SU in one score games and despite their 14-3 record, they only outgained opponents by 10 YPG on the season. This Vikings team is fortunate to sit where they are to say the least. We like the QB advantage for the Rams as well with veteran Stafford, who has won a Super Bowl, vs Sam Darnold who looked like a deer in headlights last week vs a Detroit defense that was decimated with injuries. That dropped Darnold’s career road record to 12-22 ATS. Let’s grab the dog here.

#381/382 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET - A number of key things in play here which favor the Under in our opinion. First of all, both teams love to run the ball which eats clock. The Eagles run the ball on 56% of their offensive snaps (#1 in the NFL) and Green Bay runs on almost 52% of their snaps (#3 in the NFL). Both defenses are in the top 10 in YPC allowed and in the top 5 in YPP allowed. Since their bye week (in week 5) the Eagles have been easily the best defense in the NFL. During that stretch Philly has allowed only 4.3 YPP and 1.4 points per drive which is the best in the NFL. They’ve also held teams without a first down on 45% of their drives during that stretch which is by far the best in the league. Green Bay’s defense has been really good as well. During that same stretch (since week 5), the Packers have allowed teams to average 1.7 points per drive (#2 in the NFL) and 5.1 YPP (#3 in the NFL). Both teams are very slow paced with Philly ranking 23rd in seconds per play and Green Bay ranking 30th. Offensively, the Packers lost WR Watson last week and he is their big play, deep threat which should limit big plays. QB Love isn’t 100% with a arm injury but will play. His back up Willis injured his hand last week so GB has some issues at QB and we would be at all surprised if they try and run the ball more than usual. Philly QB Hurts hasn’t played in 3 weeks, could be rusty, and they may want to protect him a bit coming off a concussion. Nice situation for a slower paced, lower scoring game and we’ll jump on the Under.

#379/380 ASA PLAY ON Over 47.5 Points – Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in scoring with Buffalo sitting at #2 (31 PPG) and Denver at #10 (25 PPG). The Bills offense has been even more potent at home where they average 34.3 PPG which is the 2nd best home mark in the NFL only behind Detroit. The Bills have scored 30+ points in 7 of their 8 home games. They’ll be facing a Denver defense that has very solid overall numbers (#7 in total defense) but the Broncos allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 5 games vs Bengals, Browns, and Chargers. They also gave up 41 points when they faced Baltimore, a high level offense similar to Buffalo. The Bills defense is definitely the weak spot of this team ranking 22nd in YPP allowed and outside the top 20 in most key pass defense metrics. They will be facing a Denver offense really played well in the 2nd half of the season under rookie QB Nix who played outstanding with almost 3,400 yards passing (12th in the NFL) and 29 TDs (6th in the NFL). The Broncos have scored at least 24 points in 7 straight games and we’d anticipate the get into the 20’s again here. Buffalo has pushed into the 30’s in each of their last 3 Wildcard games and we think they do that again here. The weather doesn’t look bad for this time of year in Buffalo with game time temps around 32 degrees and winds around 10 MPH. Not terrible by any means for 2 teams that are used to playing in colder weather. Over is the call in this one.

#377/378 ASA PLAY ON Over 43.5 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This total opened 46 and has dropped to a current number of 43.5 as of Friday afternoon. We’re now getting some solid value on the Over in this game and we’ll grab it. These 2 rivals met twice this year and the totals in those games were set at 48.5 and 44 so we’re now getting the lowest total of the season in this series. In the first game the final score was 18-16 in favor of Pittsburgh but the Steelers kicked 6 FG’s (0 TD’s) and they pushed inside the Baltimore 15 yard line on 3 of those drives. The Ravens put up 6.1 YPP and missed 2 FG’s. They were inside the Pittsburgh 35 yard line 5 times in that game and came away with only 16 points. That game could have and should have been much higher scoring. In the 2nd meeting, the Ravens again put up really solid YPP numbers (6.7 YPP) and scored 34 points. The Pittsburgh offense put up decent numbers averaging 5.2 YPP but only scored 17 points in the game. They were shut out on downs inside Baltimore territory and fumbled at the Ravens 4 yard line so again, the opportunity for more points was there and they still reached 51 total points. Baltimore is 3rd in the NFL averaging 30.5 PPG and at home that jumps to 31.5 PPG. Pittsburgh has been a higher scoring team away from home at 23.1 PPG compared to at home where they average 21.5 PPG. The Steelers also average 5.1 YPP on the road which is higher than their home numbers. The Ravens put up an impressive 6.7 YPP at home which is by far the best mark in the NFL. Baltimore has scored at least 30 points in 6 of their 8 home games (including 34 vs Pittsburgh) and if they get to that number, we would need much for Pittsburgh for this to go over. The Steelers have struggled offensively over the last few games but we anticipate they throw caution to the wind here and open up the offense. They know they need to score some points to have a chance in this one because shutting down Baltimore’s offense is a tall task. The weather looks decent with temps in the mid 30’s at game time and 10 MPH winds (no precipitation). This total is too low and we like the Over.

#363 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings +3 over Detroit Lions, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - In simple terms, the Vikings and Lions rate similarly in terms of offense, but the defense of Minnesota is much better than the Lions D. Detroit averages 6.2YPP on the season, Minnesota averages 5.7YPP. The Lions are averaging 410 total YPG, the Vikings put up 353YPG. Detroit ranks 7th in rushing yards per game and 2nd in passing yards per game. Minnesota is 15th in rushing YPG, 3d in passing. You get the idea. The defenses do not compare as the injuries to Detroit have decimated this stop-unit. The Vikes give up the 8th fewest Yards Per Play at 5.2 and allow just 18.8ppg, 4th lowest average in the league. The Lions defense is giving up 5.8YPP (4th most) and have been especially bad in recent weeks allowing 7.6YPP in their last three games and 7.9YPP last week to San Francisco. What’s alarming is the fact that the Niners had scored 17 or less points in 5 of their previous six games, then put up 34 against this Lions defense. In that stretch of game for San Francisco the only other time they put up more than 17-points was against the Bears. Minnesota is playing with revenge as they lost at home 29-31 to a full-strength Lions team back in October. The Lions kicked a last second FG to win that game as a 1-point dog. Grab the points with Minnesota here.

#345 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs +11 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Of course we know KC will sit some guys here but this line has moved WAY too much in our opinion based on that.  This number is double digits off from what it would be had KC not clinched and was playing their starters.  They will still play some starters as they can’t site everyone.  Head coach Andy Reid has been in this situation a number of times in the final week of the season and the Chiefs have still played very well while sitting guys in this spots.  In fact, Reid sat his starting QB in 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2023 in the final week of the season and KC won 2 of those games outright and another went to OT.  And while QB Mahomes won’t play here, we’re not looking at some inexperienced back up playing his first snaps.  KC will start veteran Carson Wentz at QB (22,000 career passing yards and 153 TD’s) and he’s playing for a potential contract whether it be in KC or somewhere else so we expect a solid game from him.  Wentz obviously has much more experience than Denver QB rookie Bo Nix and a lot less pressure on him in this game.  A lot falls on Nix shoulders (and his teammates) here as Denver needs a win to make the playoffs.  Denver had must win games the last 2 weeks to potentially make the playoffs and couldn’t get it done losing to the Chargers & Bengals.  Now another must win here certainly doesn’t mean they will win this game, especially by margin.  Too many points here we grab KC plus double digits.

#354 ASA PLAY ON Dallas Cowboys +6.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This young Washington team clinched their first playoff berth since 2020 last week beating Atlanta in OT. While they are still jockeying for seeding position, we doubt that is a huge motivating factor for a team that wasn’t supposed to make the post season. Sure they are saying the right things about coming to Dallas to win, but they may just be happy to be in the postseason. The Cowboys have had a poor season by their standards but they have not quit. They’ve won 4 of their last 6 games including topping this Washington team on the road a little over a month ago. They haven’t been great at home this year, however in their last game here the beat a red hot Tampa Bay team that is playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. They are also coming off an embarrassing 41-7 loss @ Philly last week (Eagles were playing for the NFC East title) and Dallas committed 4 turnovers in that game which led directly to 24 points for Philly (including a pick 6). QB Rush had been playing well prior to last week and we expect Dallas as a whole to give a solid effort after that loss, especially vs a hated division rival Washington. No way they lay down in this game. The Commanders have won 4 straight but let’s take a closer look at that run. They beat a bad 3-13 Tennessee team who is 2-14 ATS this season, then barely beat a bad Saints team on the road by 1 point and were outgained on a YPP basis, beat Philly by 3 after the Eagles got up 14-0 prior to losing starting QB Hurts for the game, and last week they were outgained again on YPP basis and beat Atlanta in OT. Not so sure this Commanders team is playing great ball right now despite their 4-0 run. This is also a rare situation where Washington is actually favored @ Dallas and the past history has not gone well for them. Dallas has been home dog to Washington just 8 times since 1990 and the Cowboys have covered all of those games while going 7-1 SU. We think this will be a battle on Sunday and we’ll take nearly a full TD with the home team.

#351/351 ASA PLAY ON OVER 48 Points - Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Falcons offense has produced points the last two weeks with rookie QB Penix under center. Atlanta is averaging 29ppg in his starts, 5.4 Yards Per Play and over 330 total yards per game. Penix and the Falcons offense should have success against a Panthers defense that can’t stop the run and doesn’t pressure opposing QB’s. Carolina is 32nd or last in the NFL in total yards allowed per game and 29th in Yards Per Play allowed. They give up 5.1 yards per rush and 177 rushing yards per game. Atlanta is 12th in YPP offense averaging 5.9 on the season with the running game producing 125 rushing yards per game, 12th most in the NFL. Atlanta is going to put up points against this Panthers defense that allows the most points per game at 31ppg. To cash this Over we are going to need Carolina to score too, and we think they will. The Panthers offense has improved as the season progressed with QB Young looking much better in recent starts. Carolina is averaging 5.1YPP over their last three games and has scored 20+ points in 5 of their last eight games. The Falcons defense is giving up 23.7ppg on the season, 20th most in the league. With both teams ranking in the top 10 in pace of play we expect plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities for each team. In the most recent meeting between these two teams, they combined for 58 total points which is what we project for today.

#356 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Bengals “have to” win this game to stay alive for the playoff race + have both Denver and Miami lose. Because of that perception, Cincinnati is favored in this game by the same number (or very close) they were favored at home just a few weeks ago. In that game, which was also a huge game for the Bengals as they were trying to catch up in the playoff race, the Steelers won 44-38. Pitt outgained Cincy 520 to 375 in that win and they had a +1.3 YPP margin. The thought in this game by many will be that once Baltimore beats Cleveland earlier in the day, then the Steelers have nothing to play for because the Ravens will have clinched the AFC North title. Wrong. Pittsburgh will have a lot to play for no matter what the Ravens do earlier in the day. As of now, the Steelers are sitting in the 5th spot in the AFC playoffs which would mean they face Houston in the opening round. Lose here and an LA Chargers win on Sunday moves Pitt down and they have to travel to Baltimore for the wildcard. They surely would rather face the Texans. On top of that, Pitt has lost 3 straight games (vs 3 of the best teams in the NFL - @ Philly, @ /Baltimore, and vs KC) and no way head coach Tomlin wants them to hit the playoffs on a 4 game losing streak. He’ll play to win. Situationally it’s a great spot for the Steelers having 3 extra days off having played on Xmas Day. The weather is not going to be great with 10+ MPH winds and a windchill close to single digits. That should favor the team with the better running game which is Pittsburgh. They rank 10th in the NFL in YPG on the ground and they are facing a Cincy D that ranks 21st in rush defense. The Bengals, on the other hand, rank 29th in YPG rushing and might be without starting RB Brown for this one, facing a Pitt defense that ranks 7th at stopping the run. Pitt has been a home dog vs the Bengals TWO times since 1990 (1-1 ATS) and dating back to the start of the 2018 season the Steelers are 11-4-2 ATS as a home dog and we like them to get the outright win here.

#431/432 ASA PLAY ON Under 50.5 Points – Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The San Francisco offense has fallen off a cliff over the last month and a half. They have scored more than 17 points just once in their last 6 games. We don’t see those offensive struggles changing here vs a Detroit defense that is getting healthy. The Lions were decimated with defensive injuries the last month or so but many of those players are now back. Prior to their injury problems, Detroit had allowed more than 23 points only twice in their first 12 games. Then they were lit up by 2 of the best offensive teams in the NFL (Green Bay & Buffalo) which was right in the midst of their injury issues. They are #1 in the NFL allowing opponents just a 31% conversion rate and they are #4 in yards per point defense (17 yards per point). No reason to think the SF offense, which has averaged just 16 PPG since mid November, won’t continue to have problems. The strength of this 49er team is definitely their defense ranking in the top 5 in the NFL in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and passing YPG allowed. They’ve allowed just 4.7 YPP over their last 3 games which is 3rd best in the NFL during that span and only 5 of their 15 opponents have topped 24 points. The Niners do not want to get into a shootout here so we expect them to take their sweet time on offense to keep Detroit’s offense off the field. They are already the slowest paced team in the NFL running just 1 play every 31 seconds. Detroit is in the bottom half of the NFL in seconds per play as well so possessions could be limited here. We think this one stays in the 40’s so we’ll grab the Under on Monday night.

#413 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +3.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - We really like this spot for the Falcons. They catch Washington off a huge rivalry win over Philadelphia which pushed the Commanders chances of making the playoffs to 94%. The Commanders have another division rival on deck vs Dallas. In their win over Philly last week, the Eagles lost starting QB Hurts early in the game which obviously made a huge difference. The game still came down to a TD in the final seconds for Washington to win by 3. They are on a 3 game winning streak, however their wins came vs Tennessee, @ New Orleans by 1 points, and vs Philly with their QB out. This is a massive game for Atlanta. A loss here drops them below a 40% chance to make the playoffs while a win pushes them close to 90%. The Falcons control their own destiny, win here and next week vs Carolina and they are in. Rookie QB Penix will be making his 2nd start for Atlanta and he was solid in last week’s 34-7 win over the Giants. We think Penix gives the Birds the best chance to win (over an injured and inefficient Cousins) and getting a full game under his belt is big. These 2 have played pretty much the same strength of schedules and their YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempt margins are almost identical. We’re not sure Washington should be more than a FG favorite here so we’ll take the extra value on the Falcons in the better situation.

#424 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These 2 teams just met a few weeks ago and the Bucs were -6.5 on the road. Now laying only -8 at home which gives us some solid value. In the first meeting, TB won in OT but they outgained Carolina by nearly 100 yards and by +0.4 YPP. The 2 TB turnovers resulted directly in 6 points for Carolina. While the Panthers are obviously out of playoff contention, this is a gigantic game for Tampa. A loss drops them to less than 15% chance to make the post-season. The Panthers are off a huge home OT win over Arizona while Tampa is off a road loss @ Dallas which we think sets this up nicely for the Bucs. While Carolina has been playing better, they still haven’t found a way to pick up wins losing 4 of their last 5. They’ve also been playing at home for the most part with 4 of their last 5 being played in Charlotte. On the road this year, they are just 1-5 with their only win coming way back in September @ Las Vegas and 4 of their 5 losses away from home have come by at least 14 points. The Panthers were double digit dogs in each of their last 3 road games vs Washington, Philly, and Denver and they are getting too much respect here with TB laying only 8 points. The Cats have been outgained by an average of almost 100 YPG on the road and their YPP margin away from home is -1.1. Their average PPG margin on the road in -17 PPG. TB is the much better team (5th in YPP margin / Carolina 28th in YPP margin) and it’s a bigger game for the Bucs. We’ll call a double digit win for Tampa.

ASA NFL play on OVER 50 Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals, 4:30 PM ET - Buffalo Bills QB Allen is the odds-on favorite to win MVP this season, but Bengals QB Joe Burrow has had an insane stretch of games to close the gap with Allen and Lamar Jackson. Burrow has thrown 3 or more TD passes in seven straight games and propelled the Bengals offense to an average of 32.5ppg in that seven-game stretch. The Bengals and their opponent have totaled 51 or more points in five of those games. Even after a slow start to the season the Bengals are 10th in Total Yards Per Game, 7th in Yards Per Play at 6.1, 1st in Passing YPG at 267 and 6th in scoring at 28.2ppg. Cincinnati has to put up points because their defense can’t stop anyone. The Bengals are 28th in Total Yards Per Game allowed at 360, 20th in Yards Per Play allowed, 21st against the run and 26th versus the pass. They also allow 26.2PPG, 28th most in the NFL. Five of Cincinnati’s last six home games have finished with 54+ points. Denver is going to score in this game too. The Browns have scored 27 or more points in five straight games and rank 10th in scoring at 24.2ppg. The Broncos have the 10th best points per play average in the league despite being a bottom 10 team in terms of Yards Per Play. Denver is 5-3 to the Over in road games this year with 3 of the last four cashing. The Bengals game plan is simple, outscore your opponent. Denver will be forced to keep up and should have success against this Bengals D.

#405 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks -4 over Chicago Bears, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bears are in a freefall losing 9 straight games. They look like they are simply playing out the stretch and if by some chance they have one more “all in” game we’re guessing it will be next week vs arch rival Green Bay and not this one. Chicago had a decent stretch in late November where they took their 3 division rivals Detroit, Minnesota, and Green Bay all to the wire but lost all 3. After that run, they fired head coach Eberflus and it’s been all downhill since losing their last 3 games by margins of 25, 18, and 17 points. The offense put up only 14 PPG and 276 YPG during that 3 game stretch. The Chicago defense, that looked solid early in the year, looks like they’ve run out of gas as well, allowing at least 30 points in 4 of their last 5 games. We’re not sure the Bears can keep up here. Seattle is coming off a tight 27-24 loss vs Minnesota last week in a game they outgained the Vikings 6.0 YPP to 4.8 YPP, outrushed them 3.9 YPC to 3.4 YPC and also had an edge in yards per pass attempt (6.7 to 5.7). Seattle is still alive in the playoff race but they have to win here and hope the Rams lose @ New England on Saturday. They’ve been much better on the road this year with a 5-1 SU record (3-6 SU at home) and their only road loss came @ Detroit. The Seahawks have a +5 PPG point differential on the road and +0.5 YPP margin. Chicago has the worst YPP margin in the NFL (-1.3), they have an interim coach that will be gone at the end of the year, and they look like they are just playing out the season. We’ll take Seattle.

#402 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers +3 -120 over Kansas City Chiefs, Wednesday at 1 PM ET - We were on Houston last week vs KC and picked up a loss with KC winning 27-19 as a 3.5 point home favorite. The yardage was dead even in that game (5.8 YPP to 5.8 YPP) but Houston had 2 turnovers (0 for KC) which was the difference. The turning point in that game happened in the 3rd quarter when Houston scored to seemingly tie the game at 17-16 (they missed the XP) but the Texans lost top WR Dell on a gruesome injury on that TD. Houston QB Stroud admitted that he wasn’t very focused on the game moving forward after the injury which was evident as the Texans had only 48 total yards from that point on (11:00 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter). Now the Chiefs are in a tough spot traveling on a very short week to Pittsburgh to face a motivated Steelers team that is coming off 2 losses to Philadelphia and Baltimore. Both teams are on an extremely tough stretch of 3 games in 11 days which heavily favors the home team on our opinion. Pitt was on the road in those recent 2 losses with spreads of +5.5 @ Philly and +6.5 or +7 @ Baltimore. Those numbers would tell us that if Pitt had hosted those games they would have been right around a pick-em vs the Eagles and +1 or +1.5 vs the Ravens. Now they are getting a full FG vs KC who despite their record, we (and others in the industry) have rated lower than both of those teams. NFL DVOA has Baltimore rated #1 in the NFL, Philly #5 and KC #7 as another reference point. Just 2 weeks ago the Chiefs were favored by -4.5 @ Cleveland and now laying nearly that number @ Pittsburgh? Either way, too many points here. Especially with Pittsburgh getting healthy. Top WR Pickens missed the last 2 games and has a solid chance to play here along with some key defensive players that have been banged up. KC continues to have the best record in the NFL despite being outgained on the season (-0.1 YPP). Their point differential is just 9th in the NFL and they are averaging just 5.0 YPP and 328 YPG on the road this season. Pitt was 5-0 ATS as a dog this year prior to their last 2 contests (now 5-2) and dating back to the start of the 2018 season they are 11-3-2 ATS as a home dog. We like Pittsburgh on Xmas Day!

#131/132 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 42.5 Points - New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - It is going to be extremely cold in Lambeau Monday night and we don’t see these teams putting up a ton of points. The Saints will start rookie QB Rattler who has had some ups-and-downs this season. Last week against the Commanders he was 10/21 for 135 yards and a TD. NO’s offense is averaging just 4.7 yards per play in their last three games and have scored 14, 14, and 19 points in those games against defense’s worse than Green Bay’s. The Packer’s defense is 10th in YPPL allowed at 5.5 on the season, 9th against the run and 15th versus the pass. GB gives up the 8th fewest points per game in the NFL at 20.5. Green Bay has allowed 19 or less points in 4 of their last five games, the exception being the Lions who have one of the best O’s in the league. Green Bay will want to run the football here with their 5th best rushing O that attempts 30.7 rushes per game, 6th most. The Saints defense has been good in recent weeks allowing just 4.8YPPL which is significantly lower than their season average of 5.8YPPL allowed. New Orleans’s D has held their last 5 opponents to 21 or less points, three of which scored 17 or less.

#129/130 ASA PLAY ON Over 47.5 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - At first glance, this looks like a square bet but there are several factors that have us on this Over. The Cowboys are the fastest paced team in the NFL running a play every 26.7 seconds. Running more plays makes up for the Cowboys lack of explosiveness with an offense that average just 5.0 yards per play on the season. In their three most recent games the Dallas offense has been better at 5.3YPP while averaging 1-point scored for every 15.4 yards gained. After a slow start at QB, Cooper Rush has guided the Cowboys offense to 34, 27, 20 and 30-points in their last four games. Dallas should get plenty of opportunities offensively against this Bucs defense that is 27th in total yards per game allowed, 21st in YPP allowed at 5.8, 22nd in stopping the run and 30th against the pass. Tampa Bay’s offense with Baker Mayfield under center has been one of the best in the NFL this season. The Bucs have scored 20+ points in every game but one this season and average 28.8ppg which is 4th most in the league. Tampa Bay is 3rd in total YPG, 3rd in YPP, 4th in rushing and 4th in passing yards per game. The Dallas defense has regressed this season ranking 26th in total YPG allowed, 31st in YPP allowed at 6.1, 29th against the run and 21st against the pass. This game shapes up to be a shootout.

#113 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Some may argue this is a bigger game for Washington as they attempt to hold on and simply get in the playoffs.  They are currently the #7 seed while the Eagles have already clinched a playoff spot.  We would disagree with that assumption.  A win today and Philly clinches the NFC East and they now have a realistic shot at the #1 seed with Detroit racking up massive injuries down the stretch.  Washington is a bit overvalued in our opinion having played the easiest schedule in the NFL so far.  Of their 9 wins, not a single one has come vs a team with a current winning record.  Their best win thus far was vs Arizona, who is 7-7, and that was way back in September.  Their next best win came vs a Cincinnati team that is currently 6-8 and the Commaders were outgained by more than 1.0 YPP in that game.  They have lost 3 of their last 5 games with their 2 wins during that stretch coming vs Tennessee (2-10 record) and New Orleans (who is 5-9).  Their 20-19 win last week vs the Saints was not impressive as Washington was outgained 4.8 to 4.4 YPP and New Orleans was playing with their 2nd and 3rd string QB’s.  The Eagles have won 10 straight games and even more impressive they’ve outgained 8 of those 10 opponents by at least 100 yards.  Last week vs a very solid Pittsburgh team, the Eagles dominated more than the 27-13 score would indicate as they outgained Pittsburgh 401 to 163.  The Eagles have outgained their opponents by +1.0 YPP this season and in their first meeting with Washington, an 8 point win, the outgained the Commanders 6.2 YPP to 4.2 YPP.  Unlike Washington, the Eagles have some very impressive wins this year including beating the Ravens, Steelers, Packers, and Rams.  Philly should control the trenches here just as they did in the 1st game (5.7 YPC to 3.3 YPC) which should lead to a win.  We’ll take the much better team laying a small number.

#113/114 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 45.5 Points - Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Second season meetings within the division have trended towards the Under in recent years and this game has all the makings of a low scoring affair. When these teams met earlier this season in Philly they combined for 44 total points and stayed below the set number of 49. The Commanders managed just 264 total yards 4.3 yards per play. Philadelphia ran it for 228 yards and passed for another 206 at 6.3YPP. Washington is averaging 5.8YPP for the season but have dropped to 5.5YPP in their last three games. The Commanders have faced just two top 10 defenses this season out of their 14 games. In those two games against Pittsburgh and Philly they averaged less than 4.4YPP overall. Philadelphia is very content to play ball-control offense and grind out wins, just as they did last week against the Steelers. Philly has stayed Under in 5 of their last six games as a result. The Eagles average 5.7YPP on the season but that number dips to 5.1 in their last three games. Philadelphia’s defense gets our 3rd overall grading and is the best defense in terms of yards per play allowed at 4.7. The Eagles allow the fewest points in the NFL this season at 17.6. with both teams rating in the bottom half of the league in pace of play we expect a low scoring game here.

#103 ASA NFL PLAY ON Houston Texans +3.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday at 1 PM ET - The Chiefs are clearly not the dominant team they have been in the past, but they still stand 13-1 SU on the season. Kansas City has an average Margin of Victory of +5.0PPG (11th) which is insanely low for a team with 13 wins this season. KC is averaging 5.1YPP on the season which ranks 24th in the NFL. In their last 3 games they have managed just 4.5YPP against three defenses that allow 5.3YPP or more on the season. Last Sunday against a Browns defense that allows 5.6YPP the Chiefs struggled offensively with a 4.1YPP average. The Houston Texans have one of the top defenses in terms of EPA, DVOA and overall efficiency rankings. The Texans allow the 3rd fewest YPP at 4.9, have the 11best rushing defenses in terms of total yards allowed and rank 6th in passing yards allowed. Houston allows the 9th fewest points per game at 21.4ppg. Houston has a below average offense this season in most key statistical categories ranking 20th in YPP, 17th in rushing YPG and 19th in passing YPG, but they still manage to score on average 23.4ppg (13th). Kansas City’s defense has shown some holes in recent weeks allowing more yards per play in their last three games (5.5YPP) compared to their season average of 5.2. Houston has 4 less wins on the season, yet their average MOV of +2.0ppg is not much less than KC’s. With Mahomes not 100% for this game with an ankle injury and a stout Texans defense we will gladly fade the Chiefs who are 1-7 ATS their last eight games.

#124 ASA PLAY ON LA Chargers -2.5 over Denver Broncos, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This is a crucial game in the AFC West between the 9-5 SU Broncos and the 8-6 SU Chargers as they battle for a spot to get into the postseason. These two teams have been undervalued by the oddsmakers this season as they have a combined 20-8 ATS record. The Broncos come into this game on a 4-game winning streak, but those W’s have come against Atlanta, Las Vegas, Cleveland and Indianapolis who aren’t elite level competition. Denver beat the Colts last week despite gaining just 3.2 Yards Per Play offensively, 193 total yards and 13 first downs. Indianapolis actually outgained the Broncos by +1.1YPP despite the lopsided final score. That seems to be a theme for Denver as they were outplayed the week before by the Browns but still managed to win 41-32. A true indication of how Denver is playing is the YPP differential of minus -0.5 over their last 3 games against three bad teams. The Chargers have faced a daunting schedule of late with a pair of big home games against the Bengals then Ravens followed by two road games at Atlanta and Kansas City, then Tampa Bay at home last week. The Chargers were thoroughly embarrassed last Sunday by the Buccaneers 17-40, getting outgained by over 300+ yards. We are betting the well-coached Chargers will bounce back this week after that humbling loss. LA was favored by 3-points earlier this season in Denver and won 23-16 with a 350 to 316 yardage advantage. The Chargers were up 23-0 into the 4th quarter before the Broncos scored a meaningless 16-points. If this game comes down to Justin Herbert or Bo Nix who do you trust more to get you a win and likely cover in the process. We’ll take Herbert.

ASA NFL play on Atlanta Falcons -5.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 8:30 PM ET - We have more faith in Falcons QB Kirk Cousins here than we do with a less than 100% QB Aidan O’Connell for the Raiders. Cousins has deservedly received a ton of criticism lately with 6 INT’s and 0 TD’s in the past two weeks. In his defense, those two games came against the Vikings and Chargers who both rank top 9 in yards per play allowed and top 10 in opponents completion percentage. The Vikings and Chargers pass defense is 1st and 6th in Interception percentage so some of Cousins' poor play can be attributed to the teams he’s faced. The Falcons are in a desperate situation here but still have playoff aspirations, trailing the Bucs by a game in the NFC South. The Raiders on the other hand are done for the season with a 2-11 SU record and playing for a future franchise QB in the NFL draft. The Raiders will be without defensive end Maxx Crosby here who is done for the season. Las Vegas relied heavily on their pass rush to make up for a below average pass defense. The Raiders are 15th in passing yards allowed, 21st in completion percentage allowed and 25th in opposing quarterbacks QBR. If the Falcons/Cousins avoid turnovers we expect a lopsided game for Atlanta who ranks 8th in total yards per game, 12th in yards per play, 2nd in passing yards per game and is 12th in rushing. The Raiders are a bottom ten team in total yards per game gained, rank 27th in yards per play and last in rushing yards per game. The Falcons defense isn’t great but they shouldn’t have a problem slowing down this Raiders offense with either O’Connell or Ridder playing QB.

#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Two high level defenses rule the day here. The Eagles lead the NFL allowing only 4.7 YPP and since their bye in week 5, they have allowed only 1.29 points per drive which is tops in the NFL during that time. They also limit explosive plays giving up an average of just 2 plays per game of more than 20 yards since their bye which is also best in the NFL. They haven’t allowed a single team to top 23 points since week 5 and are allowing just 15 PPG over their last 9. During that span they’ve held some high level offensive teams in check giving up 19 points vs Baltimore, 17 vs Cincinnati, and 18 vs Washington. We think the Steelers struggle on offense here with their top playmaker at WR Pickens who is out with a hamstring issue. Last week without Pickens, Pittsburgh was only able to put up 267 total yards vs Cleveland and QB Wilson only had 158 yards passing. The Philly offense has been all that spectacular as of late failing to top 300 total yards in each of their last 2 games vs Baltimore and Carolina. Their overall offensive numbers are decent (11th in YPP) but let’s keep in mind they have not faced a top 10 defense the entire season. Not one. In fact, not only have they not taken on a high level defense this year, they’ve already faced 7 of the 8 worst defenses (total defense) this season. The Steelers stop unit is top 10 in total defense, YPP allowed, and rush defense. These 2 offense rank #1 and #2 in rush attempts per game which eats clock. They are both slow tempo teams ranking 20th & 22nd in plays per second. Lastly, both defense are fantastic on 3rd down (#2 and #3 in opponents 3rd down conversion rate) which limits scoring drives. We like this one to stay Under the total.

#475 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Chargers offense has really been struggling as of late failing to reach 300 total yards in 3 straight games while averaging only 4.7 YPP during that stretch. If we subtract their defensive TD’s over the last 3 weeks, this offense is only averaging 16.6 PPG. Tough to lay points with a team that struggles to score. We don’t see that changing here as they have a bunch of injuries on that side of the ball. Starting QB Herbert injured his ankle last week @ KC and didn’t practice until Thursday and was limited at that point. He’ll play but won’t be 100%. His top RB Dobbins was put on IR a few weeks ago, top WR McConkey didn’t play last week and was limited in practice this week, and top TD Dissly will miss the next few weeks. Those injuries really limit this offense that wasn’t great to begin with. On Sunday they are facing one of the top offenses in the NFL as Tampa averages 28 PPG (5th in the league). Their offense has scored 30, 28, and 26 points the last 3 weeks while averaging 6.6 YPP. The Bucs rank in the top 10 in total offense, YPP, rushing yards, and passing YPG. The Chargers defense has solid overall numbers, however they’ve only faced 3 top 10 offenses this season and they allowed 27+ points in 2 of those 3 match ups. Tampa has the better YPP margin (+0.4 to +0.1) despite playing the tougher schedule. LAC is off a huge division game last week @ KC (loss) and they have another big one next week vs Denver. We like Tampa plus the points here.

PREFERENCE HERE IS 1ST HALF PLAY for those of you with access to that: #458 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -1 in the FIRST HALF over Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Houston should be ready to roll from the get go here as they are coming off a bye week. The Texans have been fantastic in the 1st half with an 11-2 ATS and they have led by an average score of 14-9 at the break. They have led at the half in every game but 2 this year and that includes being up by 14 on Buffalo and up by 16 on Detroit. The Dolphins have been a slow starter getting outscored by an average of -1.4 points in the first half and on the road they are losing by an average of -4 points at half. Away from home Miami’s offense is only averaging 6.5 points in the first half which is the 4th worst mark in the NFL. It won’t get any easier here facing a top 5 defense in Houston. On top of that, while the Texans are coming in rested off a bye, Miami will be playing their 9th straight week as their bye was in mid October. Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans has a 23-9 ATS career mark in the 1st half and QB CJ Stroud’s 23-7 first half ATS mark is the 3rd best of any QB in the last 20 years. We just need Houston to be ahead at halftime here and we’ll take it.

PREFERENCE HERE IS 1ST HALF PLAY for those of you with access to that: #463 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -9.5 in the FIRST HALF over NY Giants, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Baltimore is coming off a loss 2 weeks ago vs Philadelphia and they’ve now had 14 days (off a bye) to stew about that setback and come out with some extra fire early in this one. The Ravens are 3rd in the NFL averaging 29.5 PPG and they are averaging over 14 points in the first half. They rank #1 in the NFL in YPG, YPP, and rushing YPG and they have a mismatch here facing a NYG defense that sits 29th defending the run and 30th in YPC allowed. The Giants offense ranks dead last in the NFL in 1st half points averaging only 6.7 on the season. It’s gotten worse since the let starting QB Jones go as they’ve put up only 13 total first half points in 3 games (4.3 per game). The offense has a whole has been flat out bad all year but since Jones departure they have averaged only 4.3 YPP which is the worst in the NFL in that 3 game stretch. Back up QB, and now starter, Drew Lock will not be available in this game so they are back to their 3rd stringer Tommy DeVito. In his one start this season, the Giants scored 7 points (only TD in the 4th quarter) on 245 total yards vs a bad Tampa Bay defense. We don’t trust laying the full 16.5 with Baltimore for fear they get a lead and take their foot off the gas in the 2nd half. That won’t happen in the first half as we expect the Ravens to come out and put up big numbers early before tapering back. Lay the 9.5 in the first half with Baltimore.

#459 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets -3 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Our feelings on these two teams is this. One has quite obviously quit on their coach (Jags) and the other has not (Jets). Jacksonville may have won last week but it came against a bad Tennessee team. The Jags managed 291 total yards of offense and 5.0YPP. The Jets are off an OT loss to the Dolphins but had one of their best offensive games of the season with over 400+ yards of offense at 6.4YPP. Aaron Rodgers is not the player he once was but he’s still significantly better than Jaguars QB Mac Jones. The Jets offense should click against this Jags D that is 31st against the pass, allowing 263PYPG, 30th in completion percentage allowed and last in the NFL in Yards per attempt allowed. New York has put up 27, 21 and 26 points in their last three games against better defenses than this Jaguars unit. Jacksonville will have a tough time moving the ball here against a Jets D that allows the 3rd fewest yards per play at 4.9, gives up the 3rd fewest total YPG, rank 5th in yards per rush allowed and is 3rd against the pass. Mac Jones is 1-4 SU as a starting QB for Jacksonville with 2 TD’s to 5 INT’s and a 62.5% completion rate. These teams have identical 3-10 SU records, but the Jets have an average differential of minus -3.8ppg compared to the Jags -8.2ppg. We are betting Aaron Rodgers is not content riding off into the sunset on a losing note with just 4 games possibly left in his career.

#451 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams +3 over San Francisco 49ers, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - The Rams record (6-6) is a bit misleading in our opinion. They had tons of injuries early in the season including both of their top WR’s were out and lots of mixing and matching on the offensive line due to guys being out. Over the last few months this team has gotten healthy and they have become a dangerous team winning 6 of their last 8 games. Rams head coach McVay always has his teams playing well late in the season with a spread record of 13-2 ATS their last 15 December games. While the Rams are healthy, the Niners continue with their injury problems on both sides of the ball. On defense they have 8 guys either out or questionable in the 2 deep, RB McCaffrey remains out and his back up is now banged up, and the offensive line has some question marks. After losing 3 in a row, San Fran finally got a win last week at home vs the Bears, however Chicago is a free fall and was coming off 3 huge division losses and looked like they were out of gas. Just a huge game for LA who currently sits 1 spot out of the playoffs in the 8th position and a win here improves their chances to 50-50 to make the post-season. SF has only a 5% chance to make the playoffs and while they haven’t been officially eliminated, for all intents and purposes they are out. Thursday night games can be a benefit to the home team if their opponent has to make a long trip but this 1 hour flight for LA shouldn’t affect them negatively in any way. Take the points on Thursday night.

ASA NFL play on Dallas Cowboys +5.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 8:20 PM ET - We are betting the Bengals don’t have any gas left in the tank, coming off three huge games, two of which were in the division against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They were on the road for two straight then came home and lost to Pittsburgh last week and are now back on the road in Dallas. The Cowboys have won two in a row with mistake free football and Cooper Rush as their starting QB. Dallas got a huge upset in Washington two weeks ago as a double-digit underdog, then won at home 27-20 last week against the Giants. Cincinnati’s defense has been atrocious, allowing 7.2 Yards Per Play in their last three games and 7.9YPP last week against the Steelers. This Bengals defense is the 4th worst in the NFL in DVOA rankings and can’t stop the run (128RYPG) or the pass (241PYPG) while giving up an average of 28.3PPG which is 31st in the NFL. After scoring just 6 and 10-points, the Cowboys offense has put up 34 and 27-points in the last two weeks and shouldn’t have a problem finding the endzone against this Bengals D. Granted, the Bengals QB Burrow has put up MVP type numbers, but how interested are the Bengals tonight with a very slim chance of still making the playoffs. Not to mention, the strength of the Dallas defense is in the passing game as they allow the 13th fewest passing yards per game and rank 8th in completions allowed. The Cowboys could have given up the last few weeks and didn’t and will compete tonight in front of their home crowd. Grab the points and the home dog.

#136 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals -2.5 over Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These 2 NFC West rivals just faced off 2 weeks ago. The Cardinals were favored by -1 in that game and now we’re getting them only a point and a half higher at home (currently -2.5). In that first meeting, Seattle won the game 16-6 but the Cards outgained the Hawks 5.3 to 4.7 YPP. The huge turning point in that game as a 70 yard pick 6 by Seattle midway through the 3rd quarter with the score sitting at 7-3. Arizona had a tough spot off that loss having to travel to one of the top teams in the NFL (@ Minnesota) for difficult back to back road games. Again, the Cards did lose @ Minnesota last Sunday 23-22 on a late Viking TD with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game. That was the first time Arizona trailed in that game and they outgained the Vikings 406 to 273 total yards. Now they are back at home in a must win spot sitting 1 game out of first place behind the Seahawks. This week Seattle is in the tough situation having to travel to the east coast last Sunday @ NYJ and now on the road again this week. They trailed the Jets 21-7 and had to make a furious comeback to win 26-21 propelled by a 92 yard interception return for a TD. That was Seattle’s 3rd straight win however their offense only averaged 277 yards on 4.7 YPP in those wins. The total yardage in those 3 games was dead even with Seattle gaining 833 total yards and their opponents gaining 833 total yards yet the Seahawks won all 3 (they benefitted from defensive TD’s in 2 of those wins). The offense is struggling and may now be without top RB Walker who has a calf and an ankle injury. Arizona has played the #1 strength of schedule in the NFL so far this season yet they are still +0.5 YPP margin which is good for 7th best in the NFL. Seattle has played a middle of the pack schedule thus far yet they are dead even in YPP margin (+0.0). We like Arizona to win this game by more than a FG.

#127/128 ASA PLAY ON OVER 46.5 Points - Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We are going back to the well on the Bucs Over the total this week after narrowly winning last Sunday. Carolina/Tampa Bay put up 49 points last week, but it took OT to get there. In all reality that game could have been much higher as TB left a lot of points off the board. The Bucks racked up 445 total yards of offense but settled for four field goals. Carolina averaged a respectable 5.4 yards per play and put up 23 points but also missed a pair of field goals. The Raiders offense has been suspect in recent games, failing to top 20 points in three straight weeks. Las Vegas has averaged 5.7 yards per play in their last three games and put up a huge YPP number last game of 6.9 against a very good KC defense. LV missed 3 FG’s against the Chiefs, had one turnover on downs at the KC 31 and then fumbled late in the game on the Chiefs 32. Clearly the Raiders could have easily put up 27 or more points in that game with a few breaks. Las Vegas will face a Bucs defense that is not very good, allowing 26ppg, 6.0YPP and 4.7 yards per rush. The Raiders have a solid defense this season, but Tampa Bay with Mayfield is 5th in YPP offense at 6.2, 6th in total YPG, 4th in yards per rush and put up 28ppg, 5th most in the NFL. Last week the Panthers played very deliberately on offense but that won’t be the case this week as the Raiders can let everything hang out in this game with nothing left to play for. This turns into a shootout with both teams putting up points.

#134 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Dolphins -5.5 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1 PM ET - There are some very interesting historical trends in this game that support Miami and go against the Jets. We will get to those later. Miami comes into this game off a loss in Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day so they’ve had extra time to prepare for this AFC East showdown. The cold/windy conditions certainly played an impact in that 17-30 loss to the Packers. Looking at Miami’s three previous games we see they were -7.5 at home against New England and won 34-15. The week prior they were laying -8-points at home against the Raiders and won 34-19. The Jets aren’t any better than those two teams and it looks like they’ve quit on the season for a lame duck coach and quarterback. New York is off a stinging loss at home to the Seahawks 21-26, a game in which they led 21-7 before giving up 19 unanswered points in a demoralizing loss. The Dolphins have a +0.1 yards per play differential in their last three games compared to the Jets who are minus 1.3YPP, the 4th worst number int the NFL. The Jets will be without a couple key starters with Breece Hall and Sauce Gardiner out this Sunday, and let’s face it, Rodgers is not the QB he once was and currently ranks 25th in QBR rating. In their last 9 games the Jets are 1-8 ATS and continue to be over-valued by the Books. New York has 1 road win on the season back in week 2 at Tennessee and four of their five road losses have come by 6+ points. Miami has won 13 of the last sixteen meetings with the Jets, with Tua going 4-0 SU and winning those four by an average of +8.6ppg. When Miami with Tua under center has been favored by 6 or more points the Fish have gone 15-1 SU, 12-4 ATS in those games. The Dolphins win this game big.

#101 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers +3.5 over Detroit Lions, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - While Green Bay is fairly healthy right now coming off their win over Miami on Thanksgiving, Detroit is not. The Lions had defensive players dropping right and left in their 3 point home win last Thursday over Chicago. Detroit built a solid 16-0 first half lead and Chicago struggled to do anything on offense prior to the break (38 total yards in the first half). However, as Detroit started losing defensive players in the 2nd half, the Chicago offense took off scoring 20 points and putting up 259 yards after the break. The Lions defensive line was decimated and many of those players didn’t practice this week including 2 starters. Green Bay’s offense is peaking right now averaging 6.6 YPP over their last 3 games while putting up 29 PPG during that stretch. In their first meeting, the Packers only scored 14 points, however they racked up 411 total yards on 6.6 YPP and only punted twice. They had plenty of opportunities to put more points on the board and now with Detroit’s defense banged up they should have success here. Speaking of the first meeting a few weeks ago, Detroit won the game 24-14 but were outgained 411 to 262 (6.6 YPP to 4.7 YPP). The Packers also averaged 7.0 yards per pass attempt to 6.0 for Detroit and 6.0 YPC rushing to 3.9 for the Lions. A clean sweep of the key stats for Green Bay. A Jordan Love pick 6 late in the first half changed the complexion of that game. Love has been much better at protecting the ball as of late with no turnovers the last 2 games. If the Packers don’t lose the turnover battle in this one, we give them a great shot at the upset. Take the points.

ASA NFL play on UNDER 42 Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos, 8:15 PM ET - There is a lot of noise surrounding the Denver Broncos, rookie QB Bo Nix and their surprising 7-5 start but we are not as impressed as others. Nix/Denver has faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season and his overall numbers are inflated as a result. In fact, Denver ranks 23rd in passing yards per game and 21st in yards per play at 5.1 despite the soft schedule. Cleveland is going to pressure Nix with the 4th best sack percentage in the league at 9.04%. The Browns pass defense around league average in terms of yards per game allowed at 214.4. Cleveland gives up 5.7YPP on the season but have also faced 5 opponents in their last seven games that rank top 10 in YPP offense. Denver is clearly not one of those teams. The Broncos defense allows the second fewest YPP on the season at 4.7, rank 4th in yards per point allowed and give up just 16.8ppg (2nd). The Browns offense is one of the worst in the NFL averaging 16.9ppg (31st) and it takes 17.3 yards gained per point, also second to last in the league. This is a very low O/U number but we don’t expect this game to get into the 40’s.

#479 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles +3 over Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Eagles are rolling winning 7 in a row following their bye week back in early October. Their point differential during that 7 game run is +107 (+15.3 PPG) and they outgained all 7 of those opponents by more than 100 yards! The Eagles have a +115 YPG differential which is #1 in the NFL and their YPP differential is #2. The offense has scored at least 26 points in 6 straight games and the defense is #1 in total defense and #2 in YPP allowed. This stop unit has allowed only 1 team to top 23 points this season. Baltimore is on a short week after beating the Chargers in LA on Monday night and they have yet to get a week off playing for the 13th straight week. As good as the Ravens have been at times, they do have 4 losses on the season including setbacks vs the Browns and Raiders. Their offense has been outstanding but the Ravens defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL ranking 24th in total defense, 23rd in scoring defense, and 31st in pass defense. The loss of defensive coordinator McDonald to Seattle has had a big impact on that side of the ball. We think they’ll really struggle vs a Philly offense that is explosive putting up 24 more plays of 20 or more yards than their opponents, the largest margin in the league. The Eagles have been tabbed underdogs twice this season and they won both of those games outright and we think they have a solid shot again on Sunday. Both of these offenses are outstanding but we’re getting the much better defense with Philadelphia and we’re getting points. Take it.

#475/476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 46.5 Carolina vs Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4 PM ET - TB ranks 4th in the NFL averaging 28 PPG on the season. Carolina’s overall offensive numbers are shaky, which is why this total is set lower than in should be in our opinion, but the Panthers have played much better on that side of the ball as of late. They have scored 23, 20, and 27 points over the last 3 weeks. Their most recent offensive output was 27 points vs a KC defense that ranks 8th in the NFL allowing only 19 PPG. Since Carolina gave QB Bryce Young his starting job back, he’s played well with his 2 highest QB rating games coming the last 2 weeks. His resurgence should continue vs a TB defense that ranks 29th in total defense. Carolina’s defense ranks one spot lower at 30th so no reason to believe the Bucs offense won’t have their way as well. Not only that, the Panthers defense ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 31 PPG on 2.75 points per possession which is also worst in the league. The Tampa defense has allowed at least 27 points in 5 of their last 7 games and the only team they really “shut down” offensively over that stretch was the NYG who were relegated to their 3rd string QB for the game. Six of Carolina’s last eight opponents have scored at least 28 points. The weather looks great in Charlotte on Sunday with temps in the 50’s and light winds. These 2 have combined to play 22 games this season and 15 have gone Over the total. Both teams have offensive success on Sunday and this goes Over the posted total.

#461 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +6 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Commanders got off to a red hot start winning 7 of their first 9 games but have hit a wall losing 3 straight. In hindsight, while they were winning, it maybe wasn’t as impressive as first thought with 6 of their 7 wins coming against teams that are currently below .500. Their one win over a decent team was vs Arizona (6-5 record) but their other 6 wins have come vs teams with a combined record of 18-51! It could be argued that today’s opponent, the Tennessee Titans, also fall into that “bad team” category. However, we like the way the Titans are playing solid right now winning 2 of their last 4 games including a win last week @ Houston and they outgained the Texans by more than 100 yards. Even in their 2 losses over the last month, vs Minnesota & LA Chargers (both playoff teams), Tennessee outgained both (YPP) but fell short. They have actually outgained their last 5 straight opponents (YPP) and despite their 3-8 record, they have a +0.1 YPP margin which is the same as the Chiefs & Chargers and better than the Steelers, Rams, and Dolphins to name a few. QB Levis has played much better with 3 of his top 4 QBR games coming the last month. The Titans defense remains very good ranking #2 in total defense, #3 in YPP allowed, and #2 in 3rd down defense. We think Washington’s offense, which has been heading downhill, struggles in this game. The Commanders are averaging 5.9 YPP on the season but only 4.9 YPP over their last 3 games including a loss at home vs a poor Dallas team last week as a 10 point favorite. Washington hasn’t covered a game in a month and we think Tennessee has a solid shot at the upset here. Take the points.

#306 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions -9.5 over Chicago Bears, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET - Chicago has played much better at home the last 2 weeks but they still lost both games to Green Bay & Minnesota. Losing on a blocked FG vs the Packers and then in OT vs the Vikings had to take a lot out of this team both physically and emotionally. Even in those tight games, the stats were heavily in favor of the road games. Green Bay outgained Chicago 8.5 YPP to 5.8 YPP and Minnesota outgained the Bears 7.0 to 5.5 YPP. Those games could have and probably should have been easy wins for GB & Minnesota. Now Chicago going on the road, on a short week vs the best team in the NFL is a really tough spot. They aren’t playing for a whole lot right now as their playoff chances are less than 1% with a 4-7 record. The Lions just keep winning and covering week after week and we’re getting them at a nice price here (currently -9.5 as of this writing). The Lions are 9-2 ATS this season and now 44-18 vs the number since the start of the 2021 season. If Detroit was going to get clipped and play a poor game, last week @ Indy was a perfect spot for that to happen and they still dominated 24-6 outgaining the Colts by +120 yards. Detroit remains one of the top 3 teams in the NFL in YPP margin at +1.0 and Chicago has the 2nd worst YPP margin in the league at -1.1. The offense is rolling for Detroit scoring at least 40 points in 4 of their last 8 games & they’ve scored a TD on almost 36% of their possessions, by far the best in the NFL. Now they face a Chicago defense trending down allowing 6.8 YPP over their last 3 games. Favorites on Thanksgiving Day have been fantastic with a 38-19 ATS record since 2004. It’s always a tough spot for the road team playing on a Holiday and we like Detroit by double digits in this game.

#273 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -2.5 over LA Chargers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We like backing the Ravens off a loss in this one. They are 6-1 ATS the game following their last 7 SU losses. Their 18-16 loss @ Pittsburgh last week was very misleading as Baltimore outgained Pitt 6.1 YPP to 4.1 YPP. The Ravens also had 3 turnovers which led directly to half of Pittsburgh’s points (9) and they missed 2 FG’s. It was a game Baltimore should have won and we look for them to bounce back strong on Monday night. The Chargers have a solid 7-3 record but they’ve played the 30th ranked strength of schedule thus far and have just 1 win over a team that is currently above .500 (Denver). Their other wins have come against were Carolina, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Cleveland, Tennessee, and Cincinnati who have a combined record of 20-46. Despite their easy slate thus far, the Chargers YPP differential is +0.3 which is 10th in the NFL compared to Baltimore’s +1.5 YPP differential with is #1 in the league. LA is only outgaining their opponents on a YPG basis by +9 yards (Ravens are +69 YPG). The Charger defense has good overall numbers, however when they finally faced an offense with a pulse last week, the Bengals put up 452 yards and 27 points. We don’t see them slowing down this Raven’s offense that has been historically good to date averaging 7.0 YPP. To put that in perspective, over the last 20+ years, no team in the NFL has ended the season with a YPP of more than 6.7. Baltimore hasn’t been great as a heavy favorite when Lamar Jackson starts at QB, however as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog they are 25-6 ATS in the regular season.

#263 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +7.5 over Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans continue to find ways to lose games, but we wouldn’t be surprised if they won this game outright. Tennessee has the 11th rated defense in terms of DVOA and give up the 4th fewest yards per play at 4.8YPP. The question surrounding the Titans each week is their offense and QB Will Levis. Levis has actually played well the last two weeks with 3 TD’s to 1 INT and completing 23/54 passes for 470 total yards. Tennessee’s offense is averaging just 4.9YPP for the season but they have improved that number to 5.5YPP in their last three games. Houston has regressed offensively in recent weeks going from 5.2YPP on the season to just 4.8YPP in their last three games. They put up big numbers last week against the Cowboys, but who doesn’t these days. Houston is very good defensively this season allowing just 4.9YPP but they had several key starters out this week with injuries. Tennessee’s last four losses have come against: Minnesota, LA Chargers, Detroit and Buffalo who all rate substantially better than Houston. The Texans are off a MNF win over instate Dallas and will letdown against this 2-win Titans team. Grab the points.

#252 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +7.5 over Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is a great buy low/sell high spot to fade the Lions and bet on the Colts. Detroit is rolling with a 9-1 SU/ 8-2 ATS record which has driven this number up above a touchdown. The Lions are coming off a 52-6 shellacking of the Jaguars and have a short week of prep for a Thanksgiving Day game and may not be entirely focused here. The competitive Colts are coming off a road win over the Jets which wasn’t a fluke as they outgained the New York by +0.1YPP. Colts QB Richardson played one of his best games in the NFL going 20/30 for 272 yards with a TD. Indianapolis, with Richardson under center, have now won 4 of his last five starts. The Lions have a few key injuries defensively and it's unrealistic to expect them to continue to play at this extremely high level. The Colts defense has the right zone-scheme to counter the Lions QB Goff who has struggled in games versus this system. Two weeks ago, against a similar defense, Goff threw 5 INT’s to Houston. The Colts have not been a home dog of more points this season and the Lions haven’t laid more than a TD on the road. The Colts running game which averages 4.5 per attempt should keep Indianapolis in this game from start to finish.

#258 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Commanders -10 over Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Cowboys have some big-time problems. Players are complaining about the coach, their defense has dropped way off from top 10 in YPP allowed last year to 30th this year, and their offense under backup QB Rush hasn’t been able to score (16 points in 2 games). If Dallas was going to rally and play well, it would have been at home during their last 2 games vs archrival Philadelphia and on Monday night in front of the whole world vs Houston. They didn’t rally to say the least. They looked terrible losing those games by a combined score of 68-16. Now they go on the road, on a short week after playing Monday night, vs a rested opponent. Washington played on Thursday and lost vs the Eagles. The Commanders will be hungry here after losing 2 straight (vs Pitt & Philly – 2 of the better teams in the NFL) and they were rolled twice by the Cowboys last season. The Dallas defense has allowed at least 30 points in 4 of their last 5 games and they are facing a Washington offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in total offense, YPP offense, and Rushing. Their running game is putting up 148 YPG and that plays directly into the Cowboys biggest weakness on defense as they rank 31st allowing 151 YPG rushing. The Commander’s defense has been trending up allowing 5.3 YPP over their last 3 and even better at home this year where they give up only 4.6 YPP. New Washington head coach Quinn was the Cowboys DC last year so he should have a pretty good idea on how to defend an already struggling offense. Mike McCarthy is just 13-31-1 SU and 14-31 ATS vs. teams with a winning record since 2017 and Dallas has a home game on Thanksgiving on deck so don’t be surprised if that’s the game they are more focused on. Something is wrong in Dallas and we think they get rolled here.

#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 46 Points – New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Don’t pay much attention to Miami’s season long offensive numbers which aren’t great. They played a number of games without QB Tagovailoa and went on a stretch of 5 straight games scoring 15 points or less prior to his return. Since Tua has re-entered the line up, the Fins have scored 27, 27, 23 and 34 points. Since he returned, Miami ranks 4th in the NFL in offensive success rate over the last 4 games. They have averaged 3.17 points per possession during that stretch which is 2nd in the NFL behind only Detroit over the last 4 weeks. They should have plenty of success vs a New England defense that ranks 20th or lower in total defense, YPP allowed, rush & pass defense. The Pats have allowed less than 20 points only twice in their last 9 games and that was vs Chicago, who ranks dead last in YPP on offense, and vs this Miami team the first time around who was starting Tyler Huntley at QB who just joined the team. Even in that 15-10 Miami win with Huntley still learning the offense, the Fins put up 372 yards. New England’s offense has been much better with Drake Maye at QB instead of Brissett. In Maye’s 5 starts, the Pats have averaged above their season average in YPP in 4 of those games. The average total points in games where Brissett was the start is 35 and total points in games where Maye starts is 44. The weather looks perfect in Miami on Sunday with temps in the 70’s, light winds, and no precipitation. With Miami sitting as a 7 point favorite the implied score of this game is right around 26.5 to 19.5. We like New England to get to at least 20 and Miami may just get into the 30’s here. Over is the call.

#112 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Browns +3.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re catching Cleveland coming off an embarrassing road performance @ New Orleans, a game they were actually favored and lost 35-14.  That was a bit misleading as the game was tied 14-14 in the 4th quarter.  Despite only scoring 2 TD’s the offensive numbers for the Browns were solid putting up 443 yards on over 6.0 YPP in that loss.  They had opportunities missing 2 FG’s and getting shut out on downs twice inside New Orleans territory.  The defense was embarrassed as the entered last weekend allowing just 328 YPG but gave up 473 yards to New Orleans.  We look for that unit to bounce back strong at home vs their arch rival.  Pittsburgh is in a rough spot coming off a hard fought 18-16 home win over Baltimore pushing the Steelers into 1st place in the AFC North.  They were extremely fortunate in that game as Pitt was outgained by a full 2.0 YPP (6.1 YPP for Baltimore to 4.1 for Pitt) but benefitted from 3 Raven turnovers and 2 missed FG’s.  Off that huge win we would expect a bit of a letdown going on the road on a short week.  The Steelers, in fact, have a 7-14 ATS record under Tomlin the game after beating the Ravens.  On top of that, AFC North underdogs have been money in the bank with a 26-16 ATS record since 2021.  Cleveland showed us just a few weeks ago that can get it done at home as a division dog beating Baltimore 29-24 and outgaining the Ravens as well so it was no fluke.  Believe it or not, Pittsburgh has never won a division road game on Thursday night (short week) going 0-7 SU in that role.  The weather looks dicey on Thursday night with rain/snow mix and strong winds.  That should lead to a lower scoring game making the points (especially above 3) more valuable.  The host has won and covered 5 straight in this rivalry and Pittsburgh has only won once in their last six trips to Cleveland.  This is just a bad spot for Pittsburgh and Cleveland would like nothing more than to knock off their rival at home tonight.

#475/476 ASA PLAY ON Under 41 Points – Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys,  Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Cowboys offense has looked underwhelming all season long and after QB Prescott was injured, they looked even worse last week.  In their 34-6 loss vs Philadelphia the Cowboys put up just 2 FG’s on 148 total yards of offense.  QB Cooper Rush threw for only 45 yards before giving way to 3rd stringer Trey Lance who threw for 21 yards.  They only drove the ball across midfield 2 times during the game and the other time they were in Eagle territory was because Philly fumbled on their own 25 yard line and Dallas recovered.  We don’t expect this offense to do much vs a Houston defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL allowing just 288 YPG and 5th in YPP allowed at 5.2.  The Dallas defense actually played fairly well vs a red hot Eagle offense holding them to 5.4 YPP as Philly entered last week’s game averaging over 6.0 YPP their previous 3 games.  The problem was Dallas turned the ball over a ridiculous 5 times which led to Philadelphia TD drives of 17 and 37 yards and FG drives of 0 and 9 yards.  That’s 20 points given away due to turnovers.  Houston’s offense hasn’t been great this season averaging just 5.1 YPP which is 20th in the NFL.  The Texans have topped 24 points only once in their last 9 games and they are just 2-7-1 to the Over this season.  We think both offenses struggle in this game making the Under our play.

#471 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals +2 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Cincinnati is in must win mode here. With their 4-6 record, the Bengals currently sit in the 9th spot in the AFC playoff race (top 7 teams make it) but a loss here and they only have a 14% chance of making the post-season. A win gives them a 40% chance so this is basically a win at all costs game. They have extra time to get ready after losing @ Baltimore 35-34 last Thursday. The Bengals are 3-2 on the road and their 2 losses away from home came by a single point vs Baltimore & KC, arguably the 2 best or 2 of the 3 best teams in the NFL. Cincy led both of those games in the 4th quarter and had their chances to win in both. They’ve been competitive in every loss with the exception of Philadelphia with 5 of their 6 losses coming by a combined 16 points. A few breaks here and there and this team could have a much better record. The Chargers are sitting with a 6-3 record but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL to date (30th ranked SOS so far). Their wins have come vs Carolina, Las Vegas, Tennessee, Cleveland, New Orleans and Denver, not a single team in that group currently above .500. All of those teams have offenses that rank in the bottom half of the NFL and 5 of those 6 rank 22nd or lower in scoring. Now they face a Cincinnati team that can put points on the board (6th in scoring) and is rolling on offense scoring 75 points the last 2 weeks. Despite playing the tougher schedule and having the worse record, the Bengals have a better YPP differential. Joe Burrow is 15-6 ATS in his career as an underdog and he has been fantastic this season leading NFL in passing yards to go along with 24 TD’s (1st in the league) and just 4 picks. He has torched zone defenses in his career and the Chargers play a top 5 rate of zone defense. He also gets WR Higgins back this week so this offense should be full strength. LA doesn’t have much of a home field advantage and we like the Bengals to win this game outright.

#464 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +6 over Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans are 1-8 ATS this season and because of that we’re getting some solid value with this number. Tennessee has actually been favored in each of their last 3 homes games vs New England, Indy, and Green Bay believe it or not. They were just +8 on the road @ the LA Chargers which would make LA around a 2 point favorite @ Tennessee. They were +10 @ Buffalo which would make the Bills around -4 if played at Tennessee. You get the point they are now getting nearly a full TD from a Minnesota team that is trending down according to our power ratings. After winning their first 5 games, the Vikings are just 2-2 their last 4 with an 8 point home win over Indy and a 5 point road win last week vs a Jacksonville team that was without QB Lawrence. The Minnesota offense has taken a big step back after averaging 29 PPG over their first 4, they have been held to 23 or less in 4 of their last 5 games and they are averaging 21 PPG during that stretch. QB Sam Darnold has come back to earth as well after a hot start with 4 of his QBR games coming in the last 5 contests. The Vikes are facing a very good Tennessee defense that ranks #1 in the NFL in pass defense, #2 in total defense, and #3 in YPP allowed. We look for Minnesota’s offense to continue their struggles. The Titans lost @ LA Chargers last week 27-17 but outgained LA on a YPP basis. They also rushed for 6.3 YPC vs a Charger defense that came into last week’s game allowing 4.7 YPC. The Titans actually have a dead even YPP differential which would normally equate to a much better overall record as this team has been unlucky. Tennessee looks pretty healthy right now and they are happy to be home playing just their 2nd home game since October 13th. A low scoring game is expected with this total currently sitting in the high 30’s so getting a full 6 points is even more valuable. We like Tennessee to keep this close and have a shot at the upset.

#453 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Browns +1 or Pick'em over New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Good spot for the Browns coming off a bye facing a Saints team that had a division game last week vs the Falcons. New Orleans ended their 7 game losing streak and won the game 20-17 but they were outgained by more than 100 yards. New Orleans QB Carr was very comfortable (0 sacks for Atlanta) vs a Falcon defense that can’t put any pressure on the QB. They rank dead last in pressure rate and sack percentage averaging less than 1 sack per game. Now Carr, whose splits are much worse vs pressure as to be expected, faces a rested Cleveland defense that ranks in the top 5 in sack percentage. It should be a different story for the Saints offense this week after they were only able to put up 20 points vs basically no pressure last Sunday. Off the bye we’re hearing Cleveland is as healthy as they’ve been all season. We expect the Browns to have some offensive success here vs a banged up New Orleans defense that ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.0 YPP. Cleveland beat Baltimore 2 weeks and ago and they’ve actually outgained 2 of their last 3 opponents with QB Winston in the line up. Their offense has averaged 343 YPG of the last 3 (up 75 yards from season total) and they are up +0.4 YPP as well over their last 3. Winston has brought some life to this offense and he should have some extra incentive here after the Saints basically cut him loose in the off-season. New Orleans fired their head coach prior to last week’s game and that often gives a team the 1 game jump. We wouldn’t even call it that last weekend as the Saints were outplayed but came away with a tight win. They come back to earth Sunday and we like the Browns to win this game.

ASA play on Washington Commanders +4 at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Commanders here as they are coming off a loss, while the Eagles are coming off a big rivalry win in Dallas. Even though the Cowboys are down this season, that is still one of, if not the biggest game on Philly schedule. There is no shame in the Commanders loss to the red hot Steelers who have now won 4 straight games. Washington has the 6th best yards per play differential in the NFL at +0.5. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in YPPD at +0.9. Last year in the two meetings the Eagles won by 3 in OT and by 7-points in Washington. The combined Total Yards produced by the Eagles was 789 yards, the Commanders put up 837 yards. In terms of yards per play, the Eagles averaged 6.0YPP, the Commanders averaged 5.9YPP.  These two teams rate near even when it comes to overall DVOA statistics, so given the circumstances we will grab whatever points are available with the underdog. Washington is 5-1-2 ATS the last eight meetings with Philadelphia.

#286 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams -2.5 over Miami Dolphins, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Rough spot for the Fins after nearly upsetting Buffalo on the road last week, they take to the air again in a cross country trip to LA. This is Miami’s 4th road game in their last 5 contests. They did get QB Tagovailoa back in the line up 2 games ago but they lost both of those contests and now might be without top WR Hill on Monday due to a wrist injury. Miami is just 2-6 with a -63 point differential which is the 6th worst in the NFL. And that’s despite playing the 24th most difficult strength of schedule to date. Defensively the Dolphins have solid overall numbers but they are trending down as of late allowing 58 points the last 2 weeks on 5.9 YPP in losses to Arizona & Buffalo. The Rams offense is back at full strength with WR’s Cupp and Nacua back in the line up together. With those 2 threats back on the field, LA has scored 56 points the last 2 weeks and veteran QB Stafford has thrown for almost 600 yards and 6 TD’s. The Rams sit at 4-4 and they’ve played the 3rd most difficult strength of schedule which is a big difference when comparing that to Miami. We’re getting a coaching edge here as well with McVay over McDaniel. The Rams are in the thick of the playoff race in the NFC while the Fins have pretty much played themselves out of it in the AFC. Miami has covered just once the last 8 times they’ve been tabbed an underdog and we think they add another ATS “L” to the ledger here. Lay the small number and take the Rams.

#281/282 ASA PLAY ON OVER 46 Points - New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Jets have two trends with their team right now with the offense improving and the defense sliding in the opposite direction. NY is averaging 5.1 Yards Per Play on the season and 5.7YPP in their most recent three games. Defensively they allow 4.6YPP overall, 4.8YPP in their last three games. New York allowed 17 or less points in 3 of their first four games but have allowed 23 or more in 4 of their last five games. In a recent game against the Steelers, who have similar offensive numbers compared to this Cardinals team the Jet’s D allowed 37 points and over 400-yards of offense. Offensively the Jets have explosive weapons at every position, and they played one of their best games last game versus a Texans defense that is significantly better than this Arizona unit. The Cardinals are allowing the 11th most Yards Per Play at 5.6, they rank 22nd in rushing YPG allowed and 24th in passing YPG given up. Arizona’s defense has held three pedestrian offenses (Bears, Chargers and Rams-injured) to 9, 15 and 10-points. Against the good offenses they’ve faced they have given up 34, 20, 42, 23, 34 and 27-points. The Cardinals are going to put up points in this game too. Arizona is 9th in Yards Per Play at 6.1 and has a potent rushing attack that is top 10 in the league. Arizona has scored 24+ points in 3 of their last five games with 28 and 29 in their last two.

#267/268 ASA PLAY ON Over 44.5 Points – Washington Commanders vs Pittsburgh Steelers at 1 PM ET - Light showers expected in DC on Sunday but light winds so scoring shouldn’t be affected. Pitt’s offense has been much better since Russell Wilson took over at QB. In his 2 games under center the Steelers put up 6.2 YPP vs Jets and 6.8 YPP vs Giants. They are averaging 31.5 PPG with Wilson compared to 20.5 PPG when Fields was the starter. They should have plenty of success vs a Washington defense that ranks 24th in YPP allowed and struggles to stop the run (29th in rush defense & 31st in YPC allowed). That plays right into Pittsburgh’s hands as they run the ball well which will open up the play action for Wilson who is averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt. Washington’s offense is rolling but has blown a lot of redzone opportunities the last few weeks in games they should have scored much more than they did. They averaged 6.7 YPP and 6.0 YPP the last 2 and scored 45 points in those 2 games. The total yardage they gained in those 2 games (over 800 yards) would normally produce 56 points for an average NFL yards per point team. They face a Pittsburgh offense that has solid numbers (13th in YPP allowed) but those numbers look like they could be misleading. That’s because they haven’t played an offense since week 1 that currently ranked in the top 15 in YPP and the average of the offenses they’ve faced rank 21st in YPP. Now they face a Commander offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL putting up 6.4 YPP. The Commanders have scored on a league-high 60.7% of their drives. The next closest team (Baltimore) is at 51.0%. The Steelers have scored on 45.9% of their possessions, which is sixth in the league. Everything here points to a high scoring game and this total is set too low. Over is the call.

#273 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco 49ers -6.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The 49ers are a disappointing 4-4 SU on the season but have dealt with numerous injuries to key personnel. They are coming off a bye-week and are getting healthy for the final stretch of the regular season. There are even rumors RB McCaffrey may return for this game. Either way, we like the Niners to roll here. Despite a .500 record the 49ers are 5th in the current DVOA rankings, 7th in offense and 5th in defense. San Francisco averages 6.5 Yards Per Play (2nd) and gives up just 5.3YPP (12th). SF is a modest 15-13 ATS as a road chalk since 2020 but they’ve won those games by an average of +7.7ppg. On that note, the Bucs are 3-6 ATS their last nine as a home dog with a negative differential of minus -1.4ppg. As for Tampa Bay, they are in a horrible scheduling situation having just played in Kansas City in a big game on Monday Night Football. TB has not had a bye this season and are dealing with a depleted roster with their two best WR’s on the sideline. Tampa Bay is 30th in the NFL in Yards Per Game allowed and 26th in YPP given up at 6.0. They give up the 19th most rushing YPG and 30th most passing YPG. Offensively the Bucs will want to run the football, but the 49ers allow 105 rushing yards per game (6th) and just 4.3 yards per attempt (9th). Tampa Bay has already been beaten 3 times on this field this season and we expect the Niners to hand them #4.

#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We’ll be the first to admit, we thought the change in Pittsburgh from QB Fields to Wilson was a mistake, but clearly not. The Steelers offense has put up 37 and 26 points with Wilson under center with 832 total yards at 6.6 Yards Per Play. It’s a small sample size, but those numbers would be the 2nd best in the league behind only Baltimore. The Steelers offense is averaging 138 rushing yards per game (8th) and should put up big numbers against a Commander's defense that ranks 29th in RYPG allowed at 143. With the running game established, Wilson and the Steelers passing attack can exploit a Washington D that allows the 24th highest completion percentage in the NFL and gives up 6.8 yards per attempt. The Commanders QB Daniels is special, and this offense has excelled this season, but the Steelers/Tomlin defense will be up for the task. Pittsburgh clearly has a scheme in place to slow Daniels as they have to play Lamar Jackson and the Ravens twice a year. Last season the Steelers D held the Ravens to 10 points twice. This will easily be the best defense the Commanders have faced this season with every opponent ranking lower than the Steelers in Yards Per Play and Total Defense. In the last 10 years the Steelers are one of the best in the NFL as an underdog with a 43-24-1 ATS record. They are also 8-4 ATS since 2020 when playing with a rest advantage. We like the Steelers to win this game outright.

#110 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -5.5 over Cincinnati Bengals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bengals have a losing record currently at 4-5 despite playing the 2nd easiest strength of schedule in the NFL.  They haven’t beaten a team that is currently above .500 and their 4 wins have come vs teams that have a combined 8 wins (Carolina, NYG, Las Vegas, and Cleveland).  Cincy played a little better offensively last week putting up 41 points on a bad Raiders team, but only averaged 5.3 YPP so that was a bit misleading.  In their 3 games prior to that this offense wasn’t playing great to say the least.  In that 3 game stretch prior to LV (vs Eagles, Browns, and Giants), the Bengals averaged just 18 PPG on 269 YPG.  Now they have some key injuries on that side of the ball with WR Higgins still doubtful, RB Moss out, and TE All now out for the season.  We’re not sure they can keep up with this Ravens offense that has scored at least 40 points in 3 of their last 5 games.  Last week they hosted a Denver defense that led the NFL allowing just 4.4 YPP and Baltimore put up 7.3 YPP vs that stop unit and 41 points.  Baltimore also added WR Diontae Johnson to their arsenal this week in a trade with the Panthers.  The Birds are the only team in the NFL averaging over 7.0 YPP on the season and in their first meeting with Cincinnati on the road, they put up 41 points on 6.8 YPP.  The Bengals were playing at the top of their game offensively at that point of the season and still lost 41-38 at home.  Over their last 15 home wins, since 2022, the Ravens have won those games by an average of +16 PPG.  Cincy simply isn’t playing at that level on offense right now and on the road, short week, we just don’t see them staying within a TD here.  Lay it. 

ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Bucs +9.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - KC has won 13 straight games dating back to last season but only 3 of those have come by more than 8 points and their average YPG margin during that stretch is just +45. They are the king of winning close games and with this line sitting near double digits, we are on Tampa. The Bucs are 4-4 on the season yet they have a point differential of +22 and a YPP differential of +0.1. KC is undefeated yet their point differential is just +50 and their YPP differential is pretty comparable to TB at +0.3. KC’s offense has been pretty average this season (17th in YPP) which is why they haven’t been pulling away from teams. Mahomes ranks just 24th in QBR and he doesn’t have many high level weapons at his disposal this year. They are already missing RB Pacheco and WR’s Rice, Brown, Moore and now Shuster is most likely out for this game. Tampa has their offensive injury problems as well but they still put up 26 points on 432 yards last week vs Atlanta with their key WR’s out. The Bucs can score (4th in the NFL at 29.4 PPG) and they know how to keep drives alive with a 52.5% third down conversion rate (1st in the NFL). KC’s offense hasn’t topped 28 points the entire season and facing a team that can score will make it tough for them to win this one by double digits. Windy conditions are expected in KC Monday night which may favor the better running team. TB averages 5.1 YPC this season (6th) while KC is averaging only 3.9 YPC (29th). We’ll call for the Bucs to keep this one close. Take the points.

#465/466 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 46.5 Points - Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings at 8:20 PM ET - Indy’s offense gets a shot in the arm here with Joe Flacco starting at QB.  There has been a big difference in this offense when Flacco starts and plays the majority of the game the Colts are averaging 27 PPG.  That includes games vs Tennessee and Pittsburgh, 2 top 10 defenses.  When Richardson starts and plays the majority of the game for Indianapolis they are averaging just 19 PPG.  Flacco completes 66% of his passes with 7 TD’s and 1 interception.  Richardson has completed 44% of his passes with 4 TD’s and 7 interceptions.  Huge upgrade in the passing game Flacco under center to go along with an Indy running game that ranks 11th in the NFL.  They should have success vs a Minnesota defense that is trending down allowing at least 29 points in 3 of their last 4 games.  The Vikings offense is averaging 27 PPG on the season on 6.1 YPP (8th in the NFL).  They are facing an Indianapolis defense that ranks 28th in total D, can’t stop the run (30th in run defense) and is allowing opposing QB’s to complete just over 68% of their passes (27th in the league).  They have held a few recent opponents to a lower scoring output, however those offenses rank near the bottom of the NFL (Tennessee 28th in scoring & Miami 32nd in scoring).  Minnesota also gets a huge boost offensively in this game with one of the top TE’s in the NFL, TJ Hockenson, returning from an injury.  At home the Minnesota offense has been very good averaging 29 PPG this season on 6.4 YPP.  Since 2020, the Vikings have gone 17-5-1 to the Over as home favorites if the total is less than 51 points which is a key NFL number.  Another Over here.

#460/470 ASA PLAY ON Over 44.5 Points - Chicago Bears vs Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Two fast paced teams in this game (6th and 9th in seconds per play) should give us plenty of opportunities to put up points.  Chicago’s defense has solid numbers and is coming off a game where they allowed only 18 points to Washington, however that score was extremely misleading.  The Commanders blew opportunity after opportunity to get into the endzone and settle for 4 FG’s despite rolling up almost 500 yards on 6.7 YPP.  Prior to playing Washington and allowing big numbers in the stat sheet, the Bears hadn’t played a single offense ranked inside the top 10 in YPP and the average of those 6 prior offenses was 19th in YPP.  Arizona ranks 9th in YPP and should have success here.  On the other side, Arizona’s defense is not good.  They rank 28th in YPP allowed and 27th in total defense.  They’ve allowed at least 20 points in 5 of their last 6 games and the one game they did not was vs the Chargers who averaged 6.2 YPP in the game but settled for 5 FG’s and fumbled at the Arizona 1-yard line.  The Bears offense wasn’t great last week vs a vastly improved Washington defense, however Chicago showed some real progress leading into that game.  In their previous 3 games the Bears were ranked in the top 10 in YPP and YPG offensively while averaging 32 PPG.  We expect them to get back on track vs a poor defense on Sunday.  Perfect conditions for scoring in Arizona on Sunday and the Cards have topped this total (44.5 points) in 4 of their last 5 games.  With this line around a pick-em both teams projected total is right around 22 points.  We expect both to eclipse that.  Take the Over. 

#476 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -7 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Eagles are rolling on both sides of the ball right now winning 4 of their last 5 games.  They’ve outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents by YPP margins of +3.0, +2.9, +1.9, and +1.4.  That’s impressive.  Last week they dominated a solid Cincinnati team on the road 37-17 outgaining them 397 to 280.  Over the last 2 weeks, the Eagles have outscored their opponents 63-20.  Not only is their offense trending up, the Philly defense has played lights out over the last month or so.  They have not allowed more than 17 points since September and over their last 3 games the Eagles lead the NFL allowing only 3.9 YPP.  They’ve done this while mainly playing on the road.  4 of their last 5 games have come away from home and they’ve played only 1 home game since mid September.  The Jags are in a really rough spot here.  This will be their 9th straight game with no bye, they were in London for 2 weeks, came home and lost to GB on a last second FG, and now off to Philadelphia.  On top of that, Jacksonville is really banged up right now especially on offense.  Their top 3 WR’s may miss this one (Thomas, Kirk, and Davis) and there is a good chance that 2 of their starting Oline will be out as well.  On top of that, they just traded their best offensive lineman, LT Robinson, to the Vikings this week.  Has this team waved the white flag?  We think they will struggle offensively vs this surging Eagle defense.  On the other side of the ball, Philly is averaging over 6.0 YPP their last 3 games and facing a Jags defense that ranks in the bottom 5 in total defense, YPP allowed, and scoring defense with Jacksonville allowing a TD 30.6% of opponent possessions, 31st in the league.  This smells like a potential blowout for the Eagles.  Lay it.

#312 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets -2 over Houston Texans, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Jets have lost 5 straight both SU and ATS but this team is much better than their 2-6 record. We’re getting some value because of that. The Jets were just favored by 7 @ New England and Houston played @ New England a few weeks ago and was laying 6.5. That tells us the Jets should be favored by a FG here. 4 of NY’s 5 losses have come by 6 points or less and they were ahead or tied in the 4th quarter in 3 of those games. NY has a positive YPG and YPP differential and their defense ranks 4th in the NFL (total defense) and 2nd in YPP allowed. This team is just happy to be back at home as they’ve been on the road for 3 of their last 4 games. Their most recent home game was a 23-20 loss vs a very good Buffalo team and the Jets outgained the Bills in that game both overall yardage and YPP. They are off an embarrassing loss @ New England last week that should give them some extra motivation coming into this game. That was a flukey win for the Pats as the Jets dominated outgaining New England by 2.0 YPP. In that game the Jets became the first team in NFL history to lose a game despite scoring 20+ points, holding their opponent to 250 or fewer yards, and not turning the ball over. Houston is coming off a big 3 point division win over the Colts and this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. The Texans are 6-2 on the season but they’ve been far from dominant with a point differential of just +9 on the season and both of their losses have come on the road. The Houston offense is averaging just 319 YPG on the road on 4.9 YPP which is the 10th worst mark on the road in the NFL. QB CJ Stroud QB rating, completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, etc… road splits are all much lower than his home splits. Now on a short week vs a very good defense, we think this one sets up very nicely for the Jets to pick up a home win.

#291 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +6 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re catching the NYG at the bottom of the market right now after getting rolled in their last 2 games by combined score of 45-10 vs Bengals & Eagles which has led to some line value here. Prior to that the Giants had won 2 of their previous 3 games topping Seattle and Cleveland, both as underdogs. New York has been better on the road this season with both of their wins coming away from home. Their only other road game was a tight 21-18 loss vs a solid Washington team. After their most embarrassing performance of the season, a 28-3 loss vs Philly, we expect NY to bounce back and play well this week. Pittsburgh is overvalued right now coming off 2 easy wins over Las Vegas and NYJ. However, those scores were very misleading. The YPP stats in those 2 wins were both close to even but Pittsburgh benefited from a +5 turnover margin in those 2 games combined. Despite their 5-2 record, the Steelers have a negative YPP differential on the season. The Steelers under Tomlin have been great as an underdog but not so much as a favorite. Especially at home where they are 18-25 ATS their last 43 as home favorites and 3-10 their last 13 as a home chalk of 6 or more points. Too many points and we’ll call for a tight game.

#276 ASA PLAY ON Washington Commanders +3 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This line was set at -2.5 to -3 in favor of Washington last week and has moved a full 6 points due to Commander QB Daniels most likely out. That’s too much in our opinion. Washington has one of the top back ups in the league in veteran Marcus Mariota (16,000 career passing yards & 95 TDs) who entered in relief last week and threw for over 200 yards and 2 TD’s. Washington OC Kingsbury has proven to be on the of the best in the NFL and will have a solid gameplan set for Mariota and company in this game. The Bears are on a nice little 3 game run, however their opponents during that stretch were LA Rams (when half their offense was out due to injuries), Carolina, and Jacksonville. They haven’t played a true road game in over a month and the Bears are 0-2 SU in their 2 road games @ Indy and @ Houston. Despite their 4-2 record, Chicago has been outgained this season by -0.3 YPP which is 12th worst in the NFL. Their offense ranks 28th in YPP and Washington’s defense seems to be getting more comfortable holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to less than 300 yards. The only team that topped 300 yards during that stretch was Baltimore who has the best offense in the NFL. We look for Washington to rally around the Daniels injury and raise their game for this one as many teams do in this situation. They are 3-0 SU & ATS at home this season and Chicago is in unfamiliar territory laying points on the road for just the 3rd time since the start of the 2020 season. Take Washington.

#280 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks +3.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 4 PM ET - This is a much bigger game for Seattle as everyone in the NFC West is bunched together within 1 game of each other. Buffalo, on the other hand, has a huge lead in the AFC East with a 5-2 record well ahead of all other teams in the division who are 2-4 or worse. The Bills are overvalued in our opinion. Despite their record, they are getting outgained by 20+ YPG on the season. Their easy wins have come vs Jacksonville, Tennessee (with back up QB) and Miami (Tua injured early in that win) who have a combined 5-14 record on the season. They’ve only faced 2 teams this season that currently have a winning record and lost both games vs Baltimore & Houston. The Seahawks got back on track last week after a 3 game losing streak (2 of those losses were vs Detroit and San Francisco) by beating a very solid Atlanta team on the road 34-14. The Seattle defense, which is slowly getting back to healthy, looked very good holding a red hot Falcons offense (who scored 72 points the previous 2 weeks) to just 14 points. The Seahawks might be down WR Metcalf but there is an outside chance he plays and they are getting 2 key DB’s back this week to help the defense. Situational edge to Seattle as well as they had 10 days off prior to facing Atlanta while Buffalo is playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks. Seattle has one of the top home field advantages in the NFL and as a dog at home they’ve covered 19 of their last 26 games (73%). Take the points.

#267 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers -3.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This might be a square bet, but they win too, and the Packers are clearly the superior team in this match up. Something that’s been overlooked this season for Green Bay is their defense and how well they’ve played on that side of the football. With a new system and D-coordinator in place it has taken time for this unit to figure things out. For the season the Packers are allowing 5.1 yards per play which ranks 8th best in the league. In their last three games that number has dipped to 4.6YPP and last week they allowed just 3.4YPP to a Houston offense that is averaging 5.4YPP on the season. The Packers offense ranks 6th in yards per play offensively, 6th in total yards per game at 383, 5th in rushing and 9th in passing YPG. Green Bay is 8th in scoring margin at +6.1PPG and already has road wins against the Rams by 5 and at Tennessee by 16. The Jags just spent two weeks in Europe and will be happy to be home. Maybe even a little distracted. Jacksonville is middle of the pack in most offensive categories ranking 13th in YPP, 16th in total YPG and 21st in scoring at 20.7PPG. Defensively it’s not a good situation for the Jags and their fans. The Jaguars are 27th in yards allowed, 31st in yards per play allowed and opposing QB’s have had their way with this defense passing for 273YPG. The Jags have two wins to their credit, but they’ve come against the Colts and Patriots who rank near the bottom in the NFL. Green Bay is a top 7 team in our ratings. Jacksonville has an average loss margin of -7.0PPG.

ASA play on Minnesota Vikings -3 at LA Rams – 8:20 PM ET - We are buying on the Vikings to bounce back after the last second loss to the Lions on Sunday. While the Vikings were playing one of the best teams in the NFL, the Rams were facing one of the worst in the LV Raiders. The Rams won a tight game 20-15 and averaged just 5.0YPP against a porous Raiders defense. The Vikings averaged 7.4YPP against a very good Lions defense that allows just 5.5YPP on the season. The Rams still have significant injuries and an offensive line that can’t protect QB Stafford. That will be a major issue against the Vikings Brian Flores and his blitz happy scheme. The Rams allow 2.8 sacks per game and have a sack percentage of 7.87%, both rank 20th in the NFL. Minnesota’s defense is tied for 2nd in the league with 4.0 sacks per game and 8th in sack percentage. Conversely, Sam Darnold of the Vikings won’t be pressured in this game which presents a dangerous situation for the Rams secondary trying to contain Jefferson and Addison. The Rams are averaging just 1.8 sacks per game, 26th in the NFL. If we do a line comparison, the Packers were favored by 3-points here a few weeks ago. The Lions were favored by 5.5-points in Week 1. We would have the Vikings favored by -4.5 points here. Home underdogs on Thursday Night Football have been a wallet-busting bet of late with a 7-17 ATS run dating back 24 games.

#475/476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Offense should rule the day (actually night) for this one. These are 2 of the 7 teams in the NFL that are averaging more than 6 YPP with Baltimore leading the league at 6.9. On the other side of the ball, these teams have long had reputations of solid defenses but that is not the case this season. They are both average at best this year with the Bucs ranking 26th in total defense (15th in YPP allowed) while the Ravens are 16th in total defense (23rd in YPP allowed). They each have been susceptible to big plays allowing 8 plays per game of more than 15 yards (tied for 31st out of 32 teams). That’s not a good recipe vs these offenses that have been very explosive. Baltimore is averaging 10 plays every game of more than 15 yards (1st in the NFL) and TB is averaging 8 plays of more than 15 yards (3rd). Both have been excellent on 3rd downs keeping drives alive with the Ravens converting on 3rd down 51% of the time (tops in the NFL) and TB converting 47% (4th). On the other side of the ball, the defenses rank 18th and 21st preventing 3rd down conversions. Baltimore has put up 30, 41, 35, and 28 points in their last 4 games. Tampa has scored at least 30 points in 3 straight games and in 4 of their 6 games this season. The average total points scored in Baltimore games this season is 54.3 (highest in the NFL) and Tampa Bay’s games have averaged 53.2 total points (3rd). The weather looks great in Tampa on Monday night with light winds and temps in the low 70’s. We like both teams to get to at least 24 points and Over is the play.

#473/474 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 39 Points - NY Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The two best units on the field Sunday when these AFC teams square off will be the defenses. The Jets are allowing 4.6 Yards Per Play which is the 3rd lowest YPP number in the NFL. The Steelers aren’t far behind allowing 5.0YPP (7th best). Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in Yards Per Point allowed, the Jets are 15th. These two defenses are 6th and 7th in Red Zone TD’s allowed per game and 2nd/7th in Points Allowed Per Game at 14.3 (Steelers)/ 18 (Jets). Offensively there isn’t a lot of good news for either team. New York is averaging 4.9YPP (24th) while the Steelers average 4.8YPP (27th). The Jets and Steelers have both scored 20 or less points in 4 of six games this season. This line ticked up this week with the news of QB Russell Wilson starting for the Steelers and WR Davante Adams getting traded to the Jets. We don’t feel there will be an upgrade at QB for Pittsburgh as Wilson wasn’t good last season. As far as we know, Davante Adams can’t protect Aaron Rodgers blindside and won’t have an impact on this game as the oddsmakers suggest. Pittsburgh is a strong Under team at home with a 15-21-1 Under record since 2020, 4-7 Unders as a home dog. The Jets are 13-20-1 Under as a road team since 2020.

#455 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +9.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - If you looked at the season long key stats for these 2 teams, you’d have no idea one of them is 4-2 and the other is 1-4. In fact, the team with the 1-4 record has been better in the stat sheet this year. The Titans have a YPP margin of +0.1 and they’ve outgained their opponents by an average of +5 YPG this season. The Bills have a YPP margin of -0.1 and they’ve been outgained by -41 YPG this season. The problem with Tennessee is their turnover situation. They have a -7 turnover margin this year which is 31st in the NFL. If they can avoid the giveaways here, we actually think they have a shot to pull the upset. It’s a great spot to fade Buffalo as they are on a short week off a huge division win on Monday night topping the Jets 23-20. Buffalo was outgained in this game by 0.7 YPP and this offense has not looked good as of late scoring 10, 20 and 23 points in their last 3 games. Not ideal for a team that is laying nearly double digits in this one. They are facing a Tennessee defense that most probably don’t realize is #1 in the NFL in total defense and YPP allowed. The Titans rank in the top 10 in both rush and pass defense. They have held every opponent but one to 17 points or fewer this season. 3 of Tennessee’s 4 losses have come by 7 points or less. It’s going to be tough for Buffalo’s struggling offense to pull away in this one. We’ll take the generous points in what looks to be a lower scoring game with the total set at 41.

#461 ASA PLAY ON Miami Dolphins +3 over Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Fins are off bye week and had a win heading into their time off so they have some momentum. The bye week was key giving newly acquired QB Huntley some more time to get acclimated to the system. It also gives a very good offensive HC McDaniel extra time to get a game plan ready with Huntley under center. Miami looks pretty healthy after their week off and they get starting RB Achane back in the line up for this one. They are facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL as the Colts rank 30th in total defense, 31st vs the run, and 26th vs the pass. The vibe in Miami is good right now as well as they still have a shot in a weak division and they expect starting QB Tagovailoa back soon, possibly next week. A win here gets them back to .500 and hosting Arizona next week. The Colts are starting Richardson at QB for this game which we prefer. Flacco was solid in his absence and gives them a better chance to win in our opinion. Richardson is dead last in the NFL completing only 50% of his passes. He’s facing a very good Miami defense that allows just 285 YPG which is more than 100 yards better than the Indianapolis defense. On top of that, the Colts are really banged up on offense with RB Taylor most likely out along with their top 3 WR’s currently questionable. The Colts haven’t been able to put anyone away this season with their 3 wins coming by 3, 3, and 5 points. Indy is off back to back division games and they face another division opponent (Houston) next week. We give Miami a solid shot at the upset here so we’ll take the points.

ASA NFL play on UNDER 37 Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints, 8:20 PM ET - We are playing the Under in this Thursday night game between the Broncos and Saints. The Saints have been decimated with injuries and are coming off a game in which they allowed 51-points to the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay though was 9th in scoring going into that game at 25.4PPG. Denver has struggled to put up points other than their one game against the Raiders a few weeks ago. In that game Denver got a rare 100-yards INT return for a touchdown. The Broncos average 18.7PPG on the season which ranks 25th in the NFL. Denver’s offense isn’t explosive as it averages just 4.7 Yards Per Play which ranks 27th in the league. The Broncos are 31st in 3rd down percentage and struggle to maintain drives. New Orleans will struggle to score here too against a Denver D that is 4th in yards allowed per game, 2nd in YPPG allowed at 4.7, 6th in Rushing yards per play allowed and they give up just 16ppg which is 4th lowest in the NFL. The Saints defense has some horrific statistics, but they’ve also faced some of the leagues better offenses which has skewed their overall numbers. With the Saints just allowing 51-points and the Books taking heavy action on the Over, ask yourself why haven’t they adjusted this number higher? We think the obvious answer is this game stays Under.

ASA play on NY Jets +1 vs. Buffalo Bills, Monday 8:20 PM ET - One of the bigger public Sports Books is carrying this line as the Bills favored by 1-point with an overwhelming number of bets and “Joe’s” money on Buffalo. When we see that we immediately look at the other side of the ticket. Buffalo is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd straight road game after facing the Ravens and Texans on the road. The Bills lost both of those games after starting the season 3-0 against subpar competition. We are betting the Jets will get a bump this week with the coaching change as Saleh wasn’t well liked in the locker room and new coach Jeff Ulbrich is. They should also be better offensively with a new play caller Todd Downing takes over for Nathaniel Hackett. We have seen a regression in the Bills offense the past two weeks facing solid defenses similar to the Jets. Buffalo’s offense could be limited tonight with WR Shakir and RB Cook both listed as questionable. The Jets have not run the ball effectively with RB Hall this season ranking last in the league in RYPG but that could change tonight versus a banged-up Bills defense that is 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 32nd in yards per rush allowed at 5.2. The home team has won 5 straight in this series, make it 6 after tonight.

#285 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Sometimes the obvious bet is right, which is the case tonight. Cincinnati is in a dire situation with a 1-4 start to the season and desperately needs a win this week. This Bengals team had high hopes and were a team predicted to potentially win the AFC North. This team is just a few years removed from playing in the Super Bowl and loaded offensively. The Bengals are better than their record with the 2nd rated offense in terms of DVOA and the 22nd defensively. In comparison the Giants are 17th in DVOA offensively, 19th in defense. Cincinnati lost to Kansas City and Baltimore, who we have rated as the top two teams in the NFL. They also have a loss to the 4-1 Redskins. New York is 2-3 SU and coming off a shocking road win in Seattle last Sunday as a 7-point underdog.  The Giants have lost twice at home this season and are just 15-19-1 SU at home since 2020 with a negative differential of minus -4.4PPG. The Giants will be without their top receiver again this week with Nabers out and are also missing their top edge rusher with Thibodeaux out. The Giants will have a hard time keeping up in this one against a Bengals team that has put up 33+ points in three straight games. With Joe Burrows under center the Bengals have covered 10 of their last fourteen as a road chalk. Lay it!

#281 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -6 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Now that the NFL teams have had a few weeks to settle in, we are starting to see the cream rise to the top and Atlanta is certainly trending up. Carolina on the other hand is not. The Panthers got a 1-game bump when QB Dalton took over for Bryce Young and won at Las Vegas but since then they have lost two straight. Let’s face it, the win over Vegas isn’t that impressive considering the disarray that franchise is in right now. The Panthers then lost by double digits to Cincinnati at home and at Chicago the next two weeks. Last week the Panthers defense gave up 36-points and 6.1 Yards Per Play to the Bears who are averaging just 22.2PPG and 4.4YPP on the season. Atlanta has faced a tough schedule to start the season but is coming off their best game of the season against Tampa Bay. The Falcons put up 36-points and averaged 6.5YPP offensively. Atlanta has a +0.9 Yards Per Play differential compared to the Panthers who have the 4th worst YPP differential of minus -1. Atlanta is 9th in offensive DVOA, 20th defensively, Carolina is 29th and 30th. The Panthers had a negative point differential of minus -10.6PPG last season, minus -7PPG when at home.

#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars +1 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - This game is being played at Tottenham Stadium on London.  The Jags are more than familiar with playing in London as they’ve already been their 11 times (6-5 SU record).  In fact, they face Chicago on Sunday, then stay in London to play New England next week as well.  We like the been there, done that, situation for Jacksonville vs a young Chicago team making their first trip overseas since 2019.  The Bears are 3-2 on the season but a bit of a fraud in our opinion.  Their wins have come vs Tennessee, LA Rams, and Carolina who have a combined record of 3-11 and Chicago was outgained in 2 of those wins.  As you might expect based on those wins, the Bears have played one of the easiest strength of schedules to date (30th) yet they are still getting outgained by 0.6 YPP (3rd worst in the NFL).  They’ve only outgained 1 opponent on a YPP basis this season and that was Carolina rates as one of the worst few teams in the NFL.  Jacksonville was considered by many a playoff caliber team entering the season.  They have disappointed with a 1-4 record, however they have a better YPP margin than the Bears and have played the much more difficult schedule thus far.  Three of their four losses have coming by 5 points or less and they have some momentum heading overseas after beating the Colts last Sunday.  The offense, which ranks 11th in YPP, looked better than it has all season in that win putting up 37 points on nearly 500 yards.  Head coach Doug Pederson took over play calling duties for that one and it showed on the field.  The Bears offense is averaging only 287 YPG and 4.4 YPP which is 29th in the league.  The Jags should control the trenches here with their +0.9 YPC margin vs Chicago’s -0.7 YPC margin.  QB Trevor Lawrence finally had a breakout game last Sunday with 370 yards passing giving him some much needed confidence heading into this one.  Our power ratings have Jacksonville as a small favorite here so we’ll grab the points with the Jags.

#105/106 ASA PLAY ON Over 48.5 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 have combined to play 10 games this season with 7 of them going Over the total.  Both offenses are the strengths of these teams right now.  SF’s defense has been subpar all season allowing 5.6 YPP (20th in the NFL) and just over 21 PPG.  If we subtract their games vs the Patriots (31st in scoring) and the Jets (24th in scoring) the Niners are allowing 25 PPG.  They’ve actually faced 3 offenses ranked outside the top 24 in scoring if we add in the Rams who put up 27 on this defense.  Seattle will be the best offense they’ve faced both YPG (7th) and PPG (11th).  The Seattle defense is in a similar situation.  They’ve allowed 22.8 PPG (17th) yet they’ve played a number of weak offenses.  Four of their five opponents rank 22nd or lower in scoring this season (Miami, New England, NYG, and Denver) yet they are still allowing almost 23 PPG.  Now they face a SF offense that ranks 2nd in YPG and YPP and 10th in scoring.  In their last 2 games alone, the Seattle defense has allowed 7.8 YPP vs Detroit and 6.0 YPP vs the NY Giants.  They are trending in the wrong direction right now.  The Seahawks offense had an off performance last week vs the Giants which could have been due to their short week (played on Monday night @ Detroit) and long travel situation.  Even with that performance, they still rank in the top 11 in the NFL in scoring, YPG, and YPP on offense.  It’s always smart to check the weather in Seattle as it can be sketchy however Thursday night looks great no precipitation and light winds.  Both offenses are off below average performances last week and we expect each to bounce back and plenty of scoring on Thursday night.  Take the Over.

ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints +5.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Chiefs are undefeated but their point differential is just +20 (7th in the NFL). All 4 of their wins this season have come by a TD or less. KC has won 8 of last 9 dating back to last season but 7 of those 8 wins have been one score games so they are not pulling away from teams in their wins. KC’s overall stats are pretty darn average for a team that is 4-0. They are 15th in YPP margin at +0.2 and have outgained opponents overall by just +2 YPG. On top of that, the Chiefs have LOTS of injuries on offense missing their top RB as well as their top 3 WR’s entering the season. The Saints are now 2-2 so this is a bigger game for them. Their 2 wins were both blowouts, but their losses were each down to the wire losing by 3 vs Philly and by 2 vs Atlanta. In their 26-24 loss @ Atlanta last week, New Orleans outgained the Falcons but the Birds had 2 defensive TD’s in the game. Despite their 2-2 record, New Orleans has outgained 3 of their 4 opponents and they have a better YPP margin when compared to the Chiefs. The Saints have been a long term money maker on the road going 35-18 ATS away from home over the last 6+ seasons. Lastly, in MNF games when an AFC team faces an NFC team, the home teams have been terrible with a spread record of just 12-32-2 ATS (27.3%). We give the Saints a decent shot at the upset here but worst case we like them to keep this close.

#473/474 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 44 Points - Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday 8:20 PM ET - The oddsmakers were right on this opening number of 41, but money came in on the Over and drove this O/U to 44, above key numbers of 41 and 42. These two offenses are pedestrian and lack explosiveness with the Steelers ranking 21st in YPP at 4.9, the Cowboys are 18th at 5.4-yards per play. Dallas does rank 9th in yards per point scored at 13.6, but the Steelers offset that with their yards per point offense which ranks 25th. The Steelers defense is 4th in the NFL in total yards allowed 6th in YPP defense at 5.1, hold opponents to 3.7 rushing yards per attempt and give up just 13.2PPG. Dallas has offensive weapons, but they struggle to run the football, ranking last in the league at 75.2 rushing YPG on the season at 3.5-yards per attempt. Dallas has some poor defensive statistics this season, but they’ve also faced the Saints who lead the league in scoring at 31.8PPG and the Ravens who are 5th at 26.5PPG. This Steelers offense is scoring just 18.8PPG and relies heavily on the running game which is 3rd in attempts this season. There is potentially rain/wind in Pittsburgh Sunday night which will certainly help our cause and Under bet.

#469 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Rams are really banged up right now and it shows in their performances this season.  They will again be without their top 2 WR’s Cupp & Nakua and their offensive still has issues.  Partly due to that, their offense has struggled scoring just 18.8 PPG while only averaging 5.2 YPP.  That’s not good when your defense can’t stop anyone.  LA ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.4 YPP and dead last in rushing defense giving up 165 YPG on the ground on 5.0 YPC.  That’s not a good recipe for success especially in this game vs a Green Bay offense that is averaging 175 YPG rushing which is 2nd in the league.  The Packers struggle offensively to start last week’s game which was expected at QB Love was back but had missed a few weeks prior.  However, in the 2nd half GB kicked it in gear and nearly won in a game they trailed 28-7 at half (31-29 final).  Once Love and the offense got comfortable and back in synch they tallied over 300 yards in the 2nd half alone.  We think they’ll pick up where they left off vs this suspect Rams defense.  LA is just not playing well right now.  They rank 31st in YPP differential ahead of only New England and they have been outgained in 3 of their 4 games this season.  The only team they outgained in the stats was Chicago last week which wasn’t a surprise as the Bears rank last in the NFL in YPP offense.  We like Green Bay to win this one by more than a FG.

#457 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +3 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Not sure why Jacksonville is favored by a full FG here (as of this writing on Friday).  They are the only winless team in the NFL and they’ve only won 1 of their last 9 games dating back to last season.  Jags QB Lawrence has been disappointing to say the least losing his last 9 times a starting QB and he ranks 23rd in the NFL this year in passing yards and QBR.  With their 0-4 record to start the season, Jacksonville’s chance of making the playoffs are basically nil and you have to wonder what their mindset is moving forward.  They have very little home field advantage with a 3-6 SU record since the start of last season.  The Jags are also just 16-32 as a home favorite dating back to the start of the 2008 season.  The Colts are 2-2 after topping previously undefeated Pittsburgh last week but their stats say they are better than that.  Their YPP differential is +0.7 which is the 8th best mark in the NFL (Jags are -1.0 YPP).  Looks like Indy will start Joe Flacco at QB (if not we’re good with Richardson under center as well) and we feel he might be a one game upgrade over Anthony Richardson.  We often see a one game surge from a team that loses their starting QB and Flacco came in last week after Richardson was injured vs a very good Pittsburgh defense and threw for 168 yards and 2 TDs.  We like Indy to keep this close and we’ll take the FG.

#301/302 ASA PLAY ON Under 44 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Atlanta Falcons, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Three of the four Thursday night match ups this season have gone Under the Total and the average total points scored in those games was 37.5. We expect another grinder on Thursday in this key division battle. Four of the last five meetings between these two NFC South rivals have totaled 47 or fewer points and the average total points scored in those 5 games was 42.5. When playing inside the division, both of these teams tend to play lower scoring games as expected. The average total points scored since the start of last season when TB plays a division opponent was 33.5. The average total points scored since the start of last season when Atlanta plays a division opponent was 41. These teams have combined to play 25 division games since the start of the 2022 season and 16 of those games (64%) have failed to top 40 points. Atlanta has struggled offensively this season scoring just 18.8 PPG and they’ve scored 2 non-offensive TD’s this year so the offensive only scoring numbers are actually worse. They struggle to stay on the field with the 3rd down conversion rate of 26% which is among the worst in the league. TB’s offense has been better scoring wise (24 PPG) but they only average 5.4 YPP which is in the bottom half of the NFL. The Bucs have had 2 higher scoring offensive outputs this season vs the Eagles and Commanders who are poor defenses ranking 30th and 31st in the NFL in YPP allowed. In their other 2 games vs Detroit & Denver they scored 27 total points. Atlanta’s defense is solid (7th in YPP allowed at 4.9) and they have allowed 26 or fewer points in every game this season (21 PPG allowed average). Low scoring game here.

#292 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -3.5 over Seattle Seahawks, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Seattle comes into this game with a 3-0 record be we feel they are vastly overvalued early in the season.  They’ve played 3 cupcake games thus far and now are finally on the road vs a legit playoff type team.  They’ve played Denver with a rookie QB making his first ever start, @ New England (won in OT), and then vs Miami with Skylar Thompson at QB.  Their overall numbers, especially on defense, are not as good as they may seem.  Seattle ranks #1 vs the pass but again they’ve faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson.  Now they face Jared Goff at home where he has won 13 of his last 16 games and his home stats have been fantastic (70% completion rate last year with 19 TD’s).  In their only road game, Seattle struggled to slow down New England’s running game (185 yards on 5.1 YPC) and now they face a Detroit rushing attack that rates 4th in the NFL at 163 YPG.  Seattle is also really banged up on defense with potentially 4 starters out for this game and a few more in the 2 deep will have to sit as well.  One of Goff’s rare home losses was last year vs this Seattle team.  Detroit outplayed the Hawks averaging more YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempts but lost in OT.  The Lions turned the ball over 3 times in that OT loss (0 for Seattle) including a pick 6 which was the difference in the game.  A little extra motivation for Detroit in this one.  The line value is solid as Detroit was favored by 5 here last year, they were favored over playoff team Tampa Bay by 7.5 just a few weeks ago and last week on the road they were -3 @ Arizona.  This is a big home game for the Lions who are 2-1 and take the road for 4 of their next 5 games.  They lead the NFL in YPG margin at +106 and if they avoid the turnover bug, we like them to win this game by at least a TD.

#288 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -2 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is a much more important game for the Ravens who sit with a 1-2 record while the Bills have gotten off to a 3-0 start.  Baltimore has outgained each of their opponents by a combined 265 yards including topping KC by 100 yards in a week 1 loss on the road.  Their 28-25 win @ Dallas last week was a bit deceiving with the Ravens rolling out to a 28-6 lead in the 4th quarter before taking their foot off the gas.  They won’t make that mistake again as Dallas scored 3 TDs in the final 9:00 minutes to make it tighter than it should have been with Baltimore holding a 7.6 to 5.9 YPP edge in that game.  Buffalo is on the road on a short week after beating a bad Jacksonville team (0-3 record) on Monday night.  The Bills had to come from 14 points down in their opener to nip Arizona and then faced an overvalued Miami team that lost QB Tagovailoa during the game.  Buffalo is good but overvalued right now in our opinion.  The host Ravens are averaging 203 YPG rushing on a league high 5.9 YPC and they should be able to take advantage of a Buffalo defense that has allowed 4.7 YPC (22nd) and is playing without their top 2 LB’s.  When facing a mobile QB in week 1 (Arizona’s Kyler Murray) the Bills allowed 125 yards rushing on 5.0 YPC and allowed Murray to rush for over 10 YPC.  Now they face the best running QB in the league.  On the flip side, the Bills have also transitioned to a heavier rushing attack this year but they are now facing a Baltimore defense that ranks #1 in the NFL giving up just 50 rushing YPG on 2.8 YPC.  The Ravens cannot afford to drop to 1-3 with 3 of their next 4 games on the road.  Lamar Jackson is 27-4 ATS in regular season games when favored by less than 3 points or an underdog.  This is a huge home game for Baltimore and we like them to win and cover.

#280 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals -3.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 4 PM ET - This is a solid situational spot for the Cards at home.  They lost last weekend here vs Detroit and played very poorly on offense.  The Lions were a bit desperate as well coming off a home loss vs TB.  The prior week, Arizona destroyed the LA Rams at home 41-10 outgaining LA 7.9 YPP to just 4.7 YPP.  That’s the same Rams team that, while banged up, turned around and beat the 49ers last Sunday.  This will be Arizona’s 3rd straight home game prior to playing 3 of their next 4 on the road so an important game for them here.  Washington is making the long trip west on a short week after upsetting Cincinnati on Monday night 38-33.  The Commanders were outgained in the win 7.3 to 6.2 YPP and on the ground 6.2 YPC to 3.4 YPC.  Arizona’s offense should get back on track here facing a Washington defense that ranks 31st in YPP allowed, 30th in YPC allowed, 30th in PPG allowed, and dead last in 3rd down conversion rate allowed.  This is Washington’s 3rd road game in the first 4 weeks and we look for this young team to struggle after a win and now on a short week.  The Cards have already faced 2 high level opponents (Buffalo & Detroit) yet their YPP margin is a solid +0.5.  Washington, on the other hand, has been outgained on the year with a YPP margin of -0.7 which is 8th worst in the NFL despite their 2-1 record.  This is a huge home game for Arizona and we’ll call for them to win this one by more than a FG.

#271 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET -

The Bengals are 0-3 but they’ve outgained every opponent on YPP basis and they sit at 7th in the NFL in YPP margin.  This is an absolute must win for the Bengals as they cannot afford to drop to 0-4.  In their only other road game this season Cincy lost 26-25 @ Kansas City but had more yardage and better YPP numbers than the host Chiefs in that one.  KC got a late pass interference call on 4th and long vs Cincinnati that set them up for the game winning FG.  Last week the Bengals lost 38-33 vs Washington but once again, they completely outplayed the Commanders with 435 to 356 yards along with outgaining them by +1.1 YPP.  They are back at full strength offensively with WR Higgins back and they should big success vs a Carolina defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in total defense, YPP allowed, and 3rd down conversion percentage.  Carolina lost first 2 games (Saints & Chargers) by combined score of 73-13 and then made the switch last week to Andy Dalton at QB.  The Panthers looked much better and picked up their first win of the season.  However, we often see a team have a 1 game boost when switching QB’s with the team rallying.  They caught the Raiders in a rough spot as well after upsetting Baltimore on the road a week earlier despite getting drastically outplayed in the stats.  The entire problem for Carolina was not simply the QB situation.  They have won only 3 of their last 20 games and now facing a desperate team that many considered a Super Bowl contender prior to the season.  Cheap price here as well at -4.5.  If this game would have been played a few weeks ago it definitely would have been north of a TD and possibly double digits.  Bengals on Sunday.

ASA play on Dallas Cowboys -5.5 @ NY Giants, 8:20 PM ET - We like the Cowboys to bounce back here off of two tough losses to the Saints and Ravens. New York meanwhile is off a win over the Browns as a big underdog. The Cowboys have owned this series with the Giants with a 13-1 SU record the last 14 meetings and an average +/- in those games of +16PPG. Dallas has covered the spread in six straight meetings versus New York. Last year in the two clashes the Cowboys won 40-0 and 49-17. They outgained the Giants 905/343 in total yards. Dallas was outplayed badly by the Saints two weeks ago, then caught a desperate 0-2 Ravens team last week that had to win. New York was thoroughly beaten by the Vikings in Week 1 then lost to the Commanders, and beat a bad Cleveland team last week. Despite playing much better competition, the Yards Per Play differential is near even for these two teams. The Cowboys have a negative YPP number of minus -0.7. The Giants are minus -0.5YPP. The Dallas D is soft in the middle, but the Giants have a below average rushing attack. New York’s pass defense will be hard pressed to stop the Cowboys and if this game turns into a shootout the G-men don’t have a shot at covering.

#477 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 over Buffalo Bills, Monday at 7:30 PM ET -Historically teams that start the season with an 0-2 record hit over 60% ATS in game 3 dating back 10 years and yesterday (Sunday) those teams went 6-1 SU & ATS with the Titan being the only loser.  Jacksonville falls into that category on Monday night and we’re getting nearly a full TD with the Jags.  They have lost their 2 games by a combined 8 points and they’ve outgained their opponents this season +0.2 YPP.  The Jags are also dominating in the trenches 5.4 YPC to 3.8 YPC which will lead to wins in most cases.  This Jax defense is undervalued in our opinion and they match up nicely vs this run heavy Buffalo team.  The Bills are only averaging 21 pass attempts per game (31st in the NFL) but they will have trouble running on this Jags front 7 that allows barely 100 YPG on the ground and 3.8 YPG which ranks 8th best in the league.  The Bills offense has been uber efficient averaging 1 point for every 9 yards gained (2nd in the NFL) which isn’t sustainable.  Jacksonville on the other hand has averaged 1 points for every 19.7 yards gained which is very poor and we would expect to improve.  The Jaguars have definitely had their chances on offense moving inside their opponents 35 yard line 9 times on their 21 possessions this year but have only 3 TD’s and 35 total points to show for it.  Last week they outgained the Browns by +1.3 YPP and outrushed them 6 YPC to 4.3 YPC and somehow lost.  The Bills, on the other hand, blew out Miami but were outgained by over 100 yards in the game.  They benefitted from 3 Dolphin turnovers and Miami QB Tagovailoa went out with a concussion midway through the 3rd quarter.  Jax has faced Buffalo twice in the last 3 years and won both games as an underdog including 25-20 last year outgaining the Bills by 85 yards.  This desperate Jags team gives it all on Monday and stays within the number.

#475/476 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 46.5 Points - Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - First off, when you make this wager, we recommend you wait until close to kickoff to bet it as the TV totals have been fluctuating up with public money close to the start of the game. The Chiefs have some injury concerns offensively with their top two running backs out, which prompted the signing of Kareem Hunt to the practice squad. KC will start Samaje Perine who was mainly used as a 3rd down back. The Chiefs are also lacking depth at the WR position with Brown on the IR. Yes, Kansas City still has Patrick Mahomes, but this will be a tough matchup for KC against a stout Falcons defense. The Falcons are allowing 4.8YPP (8th), 4.1-Yards Per Rush and the 8th fewest passing yards per game. On the other side of the football, Atlanta will need to stick to its bread and butter by using the run to open up the pass. Ball control will be paramount for the Falcons, in order to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands for as little as possible. Atlanta’s offense is averaging a modest 5.7-Yards Per Play through two games, and rank middle of the pack in most offensive categories. The Chiefs defense is better than their overall statistics. The Chiefs have faced two dynamic offenses in the Ravens and Bengals. KC is giving up 386YPG but are better in terms of Yards Per Play at 5.9YPP. The Falcons offense looked good last week against the Eagles after putting up just 10-points against the Steelers in week 1. Philly did not pressure QB Cousins and let him pick them apart late in the game. Kansas City was 3rd in sacks per game in 2023 and 3rd in sack percentage. The Chiefs are 9th in Yards Per Point allowed, the Falcons are 12th. KC is perceived as a high scoring team, but the reality is they were 14th in PPG last season overall, and put up 21.3PPG on the road. Atlanta is better offensively this season with Cousins, but this team averaged just 18.9PPG a year ago.

#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Over 51.5 Points - Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Despite scoring only 16 points last Sunday, Detroit went up and down field on the Tampa Bay Bucs.  The Lions tallied 460 yards and crossed midfield 10 times!  They reached the red zone 7 times and only scored 1 TD.  Those yardage numbers attached to an average yards per point efficiency would have put Detroit north of 30 points in that game.  Because of last week’s struggles deep in Tampa territory, the Lions currently rank 28th in the league in red zone conversion rate after ranking 2nd in that stat a year ago.  We expect them to move the ball well again this week vs a poor Arizona defense but look for the Lions to take advantage and put plenty of points on the board Sunday.  Arizona’s offense looks very good early in the season scoring 28 and 41 points in their 2 games this season.  The Cards rank 5th in the NFL averaging over 6 YPP and they are averaging 43 yards per possession which is #1 in the NFL.  Arizona’s defense looked solid last week vs a Rams offense that is depleted beyond belief with their 2 top WR’s out along with most of their offensive line.  A week earlier, the Cards allowed Buffalo to score 34 points on 6.1 YPP.  We see similar results for the Lions in this one.  Last week’s Detroit total was set at the exact same number (currently 51.5) despite playing a TB team that has a better defense than Arizona but is not as explosive on offense.  Last week’s low scoring game sets this one up nicely with a total that is set too low.  Perfect scoring conditions indoors in Phoenix lead to a shootout on Sunday.

#464 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans -2.5 over Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans are backed into a corner here with an 0-2 record and they are in absolute must win mode. They could easily be 2-0 as they outgained each of their first 2 opponents on a YPP basis but they are -4 in turnover margin which is why they are winless. The Titans actually sit 8th in the NFL in YPP margin ahead of this Green Bay team. The Packers starting QB Love is listed as questionable for this one but we can’t imagine they’ll take a chance a play him. He’s not 100% and the Packers have a much bigger game on deck with division rival Minnesota. Our guess is he will return for that match up next Sunday. If that’s the case GB will send Malik Willis out again this week. Last week head coach Matt LaFleur asked very little of Willis as the Packers went run heavy with 53 rushing attempts and just 14 pass attempts. That plan was successful last week vs an Indy defense that has been terrible stopping the run this year already allowing almost 500 yards on the ground in two games. That strategy won’t work vs Tennessee who has an impressive front 7 and has limited their opponents to just 92 YPG rushing and ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense allowing just 206 total YPG. The Titans will take away GB’s run and force Willis to beat them through the air. This Tennessee teams knows what Willis can and can’t do and we expect them to shut down GB’s offense. NFL 0-2 teams in week 3 are 52-33 ATS (61%) over the last decade and Tennessee falls into that mode here. It’s their last hurrah as 0-3 teams almost never make the playoffs. In fact since 2003 there have been 103 teams to start 0-3 and only 1 made the playoffs (2018 Houston Texans). Tennessee is better than their record and GB has a bigger game on deck next week. Titans win and cover.

ASA play on UNDER 39 New England Patriots at NY Jets – 8:20 pm ET -Neither team is very explosive in this match up with the Jets averaging just 5.1 yards per play (20th) while the Pats average 4.6YPP (25th). New York is average in pace of play at 1 play run every 29.4 seconds, the Patriots are the 26th slowest paced team at 32.2 seconds. Defensively both are near league average in terms of yards per play allowed with the Jets allowing 5.4YPP, New England gives up 5.1YPP. It’s obvious what these teams want to do offensively. The Patriots want to limit opponents’ possession with their running game and win tight games with their defense. New England rushes 37.5 times per game which is the 3rd highest rush attempt number in the league. Surprisingly, the Jets only rush it 21.5 times per game, but they effectively use short passes as part of their run package. New York is 23rd in yards per pass attempt at 6.4. New England with QB Brissett are averaging just 5.3 yards per pass attempt and 122.5 passing yards per game. NY understandably gave up points and yards in the opener against a very good San Francisco offense. Last week the Jets D looked better allowing 5.3YPP to the Titans and 17-points. The Titans offense rates similar to this Pats O which has managed 16 and 20-points in their first two games. New England’s offense was tied with Carolina for the lowest scoring team in the league a year ago at 13.9PPG. New York’s offense is still a work in progress and the defense hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, but this is a great opportunity for them to shine on MNF. Last season these two teams produced total points of 20 and 25. They have combined for 39 or less points in 5 of the last six confrontations. New England has played Under in 12 of their last seventeen games overall, the Jets have hit the Under in 11 of their last seventeen.

ASA play on UNDER 46 Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 pm ET - The Falcons were projected to be a contending team in the NFC this season with a stout defense, a veteran QB in Cousins and a young stud running back in Robinson. They didn’t live up to the billing in week 1 but we expect a better showing here, especially defensively. Falcons QB Cousins (coming off a Achilles injury) was very immobile in the opener against the Steelers. He was 16/26 for 155 yards 1 TD/2 INT. The Dirty Birds put up 226 total yards at 4.7 yards per play and 10-points. Much like the Jets w/Rodgers, look for the Falcons to concentrate on the running game with Robinson and protect Cousins with a short passing scheme. Atlanta was good defensively in W1 allowing 4.2YPP, 270 total yards and just 3.3 yards per rush to the Steelers. Philadelphia beat the Packers in the season opener in a high scoring game which has driven this O/U number up. A big reason that the game ended with so many points was due to the unusual number of big plays that resulted in TD’s. There were two scores of over 67-yards and two of 32+. The Eagles allowed 7.4YPP to the Packers as a result of those big hitters. Philly ran it 38 times against the Packers and with wideout Brown expected to miss this game it should be much of the same against the Falcons. We like Under in this one.

#290 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -6.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Bears showed everyone in week 1 just how explosive they are going to be with rookie QB Caleb Williams under center. Chicago mustered 11 first downs, 84 yards rushing and 64 net yards passing. Williams was 14 of 29 for 93 yards. The Bears blocked a punt for a TD and returned an INT for a touchdown. Houston went into Indianapolis and dominated the Colts who were lucky to cover that game late. The Texans amassed 417 total yards at 5.8YPP, dominated the time of possession by 20 full minutes, were 100% in red zone trips and scored 29-points. RB Joe Mixon of the Texans had a huge rushing game with 159 yards and a touchdown. The Colts and Bears run a similar defensive scheme so expect Mixon/Texans running game to get untracked in a hurry. Once the run game is established QB Stroud and the passing attack can exploit a Bears pass defense that allowed the 25th most passing YPG in 2023. Houston had an average +/- at home last season of +6.9PPG. The Bears road differential was minus -6.6PPG.  Chicago lost 5 road games last season by 7 or more points. As long as this line is -7 or less we are on the Texans.

#277/278 ASA PLAY ON Under 39 Points – Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Despite both teams getting wins last week, the defenses looked much better than the offenses.  New England scored just 16 points vs the Bengals on only 4.5 YPP.  The Pats stuck to the ground game as we expect they will again with 39 rushing attempts and just 24 pass attempts.  Starting QB Brissett is not a QB that strikes fear in opposing defenses and he passed for only 120 yards on 4.8 yards per attempt.  They were the only team in the NFL last week without a an offensive play that went more than 20 yards.  Now they face a very solid Seattle defense with new HC Macdonald who was the coordinator of the Ravens high end defense the last 2 seasons.  The Pats offense will struggle on Sunday.  Seattle’s offense put up 26 points last week but barely averaged 5.0 YPP.  Starting RB Walker accounted for more than one-third of Seattle’s entire offense last week and it looks like he won’t play on Sunday due to an oblique injury.  That’s a big loss for this offense that also prefers to run the ball (33 rush attempts / 25 pass attempts).  New England’s defense is high level.  They completely shut down Cincy’s offense and Joe Burrow (154 yards passing) last week giving up just 10 points on 224 total yards.  New England is 10-6 to the Under last 2 years at home with average total points scored just 36.  This should be an ugly offensive game and we don’t project either team to reach 20 points.  Take the Under