Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-04-20 | Hornets +12.5 v. Mavs | Top | 123-120 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* BEWARE OF DOG plays in on the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets broke a five-game slide with a 109-106 outright win in Cleveland last time out and I think they offer great value to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch here as well. Dallas broke a two-game slide with a 123-111 win over the Nets in its last outing, but this is a spot in which they've struggled in for bettors in the past and I think those trends carry over here. Key Trends: - As note that Dallas is a poor 7-10 ATS at home this season. - Also note that the Mavs are a terrible 4-8 ATS this season after scoring 120 points or more in their previous outing. - Conversely note that the Hornets are a sharp 10-5 ATS in their last 15 on the road. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, grab the ample points! |
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01-04-20 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Mississippi Valley State +4.5 | Top | 80-76 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on Mississippi Valley State. These are two very poor teams. Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 1-11. Mississippi State Valley is 1-12. That said, I don't think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest. Not only that, but the Devils play with revenge here after getting smoked by Arkansas Pine Bluff 91-57 last March. Key Trends: - Arkansas Pine-Bluff is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite. - Mississippi Valley State is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as a home dog in the -2 to -5.5 range after a three-games or longer losing streak. The verdict: These teams are evenly matched, but the situational and trend based factors working in favor of the home side today make it the correct call; play on the Devils! |
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01-03-20 | Pelicans v. Lakers -11 | Top | 113-123 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on the LA Lakers. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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01-02-20 | South Alabama v. UL - Lafayette +1 | 60-57 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* play on UL Lafayette. South Alabama is 7-6 and UL Lafayette is 5-8. The Cajuns though come in as the "hungrier" team here in my opinoin. Lafayette is 0-2 in Conference play and it's also on an overall five-game losing streak, most recently competitive in another 85-77 loss to UC Santa Barbara. Trajan Wesley was a bright spot in defeat with 17 points. South Alabama on the other hand looks primed for a letdown here in my opinoin as it's won two of its last four, including a 76-47 rout over NAIA opponent Mobile on Saturday. Key Trends: - The Jaguars are just 1-5 ATS in their last six on the road. - The Cajuns are already 3-1 ATS this season after alloing 80 points or more in their previous outing. The verdict: This one has blowout written all over it in my opinion; play on UL Lafayette! |
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01-02-20 | Hornets v. Cavs OVER 210 | Top | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER Hornets/Cavaliers. Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, but each comes in hungry and looking for a win here. Fortunately for each, neither plays great defensively either. These are professionals and the chance to win a game when playing for one of these clubs doesn't come around too often. I believe each side is going to push the pace and open up the playbook. Key Trends: - Charlotte has seen the total go over in 11 of 17 as a road dog already this season. - Cleveland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of its last eight after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. The verdict: Both the ATS numbers/trends and the overall situation point to the "over" as the correct call in this one! |
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01-02-20 | Elon +15.5 v. Northeastern | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* play on Elon. I think 4-10 Elon, which enters having lost three straight, will be the much "hungrier" team today. Northeastern is 8-6, but complacent after three straight victories. Both teams put up similar offensive numbers, 72 and 68 per contest. The Phoenix also shoot a sharp 37.5 percent from range. They're led by Marcus Sheffield, who is averaging 16.9 PPG. The Huskies are the better team, but after their 88-72 smoke-job of James Madison, I think this one sets up as a "trap" vs. the lowly Phoenix. Key Trends: - Elon is already 4-0 ATS this year as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. - Northeastern is only 1-3 ATS at home this season. The verdict: No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points! |
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01-02-20 | James Madison v. NC-Wilmington +3.5 | 64-60 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* play on NC Wilmington. James Madison is 0-2 in CAA action and I think it's ripe for the picking here for the hungry Seahawks. NC Wilmington is also 0-2 in conference play, but it enters on a dismal seven-game overall losing streak. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting the home side to risk life and limb tonight to pull off the minor upset here. Note that the Dukes are only 1-3 on the road this year, while UNC Wilmington is 4-3 at home. Key Trends: - James Madison is a poor 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite. - The Dukes are already just 2-5 ATS this season after playing a home game. - UNC Wilmington is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as a home dog or pick. The verdict: I don't think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this contest. That said, grab the points! |
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01-01-20 | New Mexico v. San Jose State +11.5 | Top | 85-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* CASH-BOMB is on San Jose State. I think 13-2 New Mexico comes into this one complacent vs. hungry 4-10 San Jose State. The Spartans come in off a confidence building 83-68 win over Pepperdine as well, with guar Brae Ivey scoring a career high 23 points. UNM most recently got the better of UC Davis 74-69 on Sunday, anchored by 20 points from Corey Manigault. The Lobos though struggled to pull away and depth is a concern with a couple lingering injuries to two starters. Key Trends: - SJSU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games following a victory in which it won and held its opponent to 70 points or less in. - The Lobos are interestingly 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The verdict: The Spartans only lost to ranked Utah State by 12 points and they come in off their biggest win of the year. The Lobos on the other hand are starting to show "cracks in the armor" after their extended run. I think the "hungrier" team keeps it closer than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe here; grab the points! |
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12-31-19 | Mavs v. Thunder OVER 219.5 | Top | 101-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the OVER Mavs/Thunder. The Thunder are 17-15 and are better than most thought they'd be. They come in off a big win over the Raptors as well and they'll be looking to kick this Mavericks team while it's down, as Dallas enters off a humbling loss to the Lakers. That said, clearly Luka Doncic and company will be out to atone for their lacklustre performance last time out. The Thunder average and allow right around 109 PPG. Dallas averages 116. Key Trends: - Dallas has seen the total go over the number in 11 of 16 on the road already this season. - OKC has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after playing two straight on the road. The verdict: I like the Mavs to push the pace from start to finish and I look for the home side to respond; play the over! |
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12-30-19 | Pistons +10 v. Jazz | Top | 81-104 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* U OF THE U is on the Detroit Pistons. These teams are moving in opposite directions. The Pistons have lost six of seven, while Utah has won seven of eight. Detroit won't be lacking for motivation here today though and I do indeed feel that this sets up as a trap/look-ahead spot for the now complacent home side. Utah enters off a 120-107 win over the Clippers as well, which further lends itself to this being a "letdown" spot for the Jazz in my opinion. Key Trends: - Detroit is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 after a blowout loss by 20 points or more (including 2-1 ATS this season.) - Utah is only 6-8 ATS at home this season. - The Jazz are just 2-4 ATS this year off a road victory. The verdict: I like the "hungrier" team to keep this one tight until the final moments; grab the points! |
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12-30-19 | NC-Wilmington +8.5 v. Drexel | Top | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on NC Wilmington. UNCW is 5-9 and Drexel is 7-7. The Seahawks though have dominated this mathcup, as they've won seven of the last eight SU, including going 5-2 ATS in the last seven. That said, Drexel won the last game last year by 12 points as a 4.5 point favorite, meaning that the "revenge factor" also comes into play here for the visiting side. UNCW averages 73 PPG The Dragons come in off a loss as wel to Charleston on Friday and I think they're set up for a letdown here as well. Key Trends: - UNCW is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 off a loss vs. a conference rival. - Drexel is just 2-4 ATS at home this year. The verdict: I think the high-flying Seahawks keep this one close down the stretch; grab the points! |
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12-29-19 | Maine +15.5 v. Hawaii | Top | 51-91 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING is on Maine. This is Maine's biggest road trip in program history and I think it'll make the most of it. The Black Bears come in under the radar here, most recently they lost 74-53 to UMass. Nedeljko Prijovic was a stand out in the setback with 15 points. Hawaii is led by Eddie Stansberry with 16.5 PPG, but with the New Year break coming up, followed by conference play after, I think the Warriors definitely get caught "looking past" their lowly non-conference opponent today. Key Trends: - Maine is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games following a 20 points or more loss in its previous outing. - Hawaii is just 2-4 ATS in its last six home games a 15 points or more home favorite vs. a non-conference opponent. The verdict: No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points! |
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12-28-19 | Nets v. Rockets -9 | Top | 98-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the Houston Rockets. Both teams are coming off poor efforts. The Nets though are injured and have zero momentum and I think that trend of futility gets carried over here. Most recently Brooklyn fell 94-82 to the lowly Knicks. The lone bright spot was Spencer Dinwiddie, who had 25 point sin the setback. Overall Brooklyn averages and concedes 111 PPG. The Rockets won four in a row before an X-Mas Day upset at Golden State, falling 116-114. Russell Westbrook had 30 points in the setback: "We were up by 13 in the first half and for some reason we decided to start fouling them and putting them on the line and that cost us," coach Mike D'Antoni said. "Defensively we gave up 64 points in the first half and that's not good enough." Key Trends: - Houston is 9-1 ATS in its last ten when playing on two days rest. - The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU loss of more than ten points. - Brooklyn is only 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. The verdict: The Rockets were embarrassed on National TV in front of the whole world just a couple of days ago and now they get a chance to annihilate this injured Nets team. Expect a blowout! |
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12-27-19 | Bucks -11 v. Hawks | Top | 112-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST is on the Milwaukee Bucks. After getting embarrassed on X-Mas Day in Philadelphia, I look for the Bucks to bounce back here and to take out their frustrations on the lowly Hawks. Whether Giannis Antetokounmpo plays or not tonight, I like Chris Middleton and the Bucks to deliver the goods here. Milwaukee has incredible depth and it's defense is going to be able to slow down this weak Hawks' attack. ATL most recently lost in Cleveland and it enters the post-X-Mas break with zero momentum. Overall the Hawks concede 118.6 PPG, the worst in the NBA. Key Trends: - Milwaukee is 30-11 ATS in its last 41 off an upset loss as a favorite (including 3-1 ATS this season.) - ATL is just 3-5 ATS this year revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. The verdict: This one has all the makings of an epic blowout; lay the points! |
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12-26-19 | Blazers v. Jazz UNDER 220 | Top | 115-121 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGERS is on the UNDER Blazers/Jazz. Two teams hungry for a victory collide in this one and when the smoke does finally clear, I believe this one will fall well below the posted number. Portland comes to town rested after its four game win streak was snapped inexplicably by the New Orleans Pelicans. The Jazz though are in the exact same boat, as their five-game win skein came to a crashing halt with a blowout loss to the Heat in their last outing. From an overall "situational" stand point, all signs point to a lower-scoring defensive battle in my opinion. Key Trends: - Portland has seen the total go under in 14 of 23 this year when the total is greater than or equal to 220. - Utah has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of four this year after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games. The verdict: This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a run and gun "shootout." Play the under! |
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12-26-19 | Wizards v. Pistons -6 | Top | 102-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* REVENGE U OF THE U is on the Detroit Pistons. They say "revenge is a dish best served cold." Washington has already taken the first two meetings between these teams and it enters off a rare road win over the Knicks in its last game. Can anyone say "letdown" spot? Detroit on the other hand enters off another terrible peformance, this time falling at home to the 76ers. The Pistons are desperate for a victory and they play with the "double revenge" factor. I think the revenge angle works here tonight. Key Trends: - Washington is an unbelievably bad 10-21 ATS in its last 31 when playing with two days rest. - Detroit is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. The verdict: The stage is set for a massive lop-sided blowout for the home side here; lay the points! |
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12-25-19 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Nuggets | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Pelicans. The Pelicans come in under the radar today. Yes it's Christmas Day, but I believe that works in favor of the visitors, who won't be around familiar faces to distract them earlier in the day. New Orleans enters off an impressive 102-94 road win at Portland as well and I believe it carries that momentum over. After seven straight victories, I believe the Nuggets do indeed get caught flat-footed here. To sum it up, this one has "trap" written all over it for the home side in my opinion. Key Trends: - New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after holding its previous opponent to 95 points or less. - Denver is only 3-4 ATS as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range already this season. The verdict: I think the Pels hang on X-Mas day; grab the points! |
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12-25-19 | Clippers v. Lakers -2 | 111-106 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the LA Lakers. This is a revenge game for the Lakers after they fell to the Clippers in these team's respective season openers. Clearly it wouldn't be too hard to write a convincing argument for either side, but the Lakers have come a long way since that first game and with the entire team expected to be given a clean bill of health, I believe the "revenge factor" works tonight. Key Trends: - The Clippers are 0-3 ATS already this year after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games. - The Lakers are 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season. - The Lakers are 9-4 ATS in revengin a loss vs. an opponent (including 6-1 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent as the favorite.) The verdict: I like The King to get the better of The Claw tonight; play on the Lakers! |
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12-25-19 | Rockets -11 v. Warriors | 104-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Rockets The Warriors are coming off two straight victories. Golden State's success these days revolves around the play of D'Angelo Russell and while he's playing admirably, I think he'll be completely short-handed here to handle the red hot Rockets, who have won four straight. The Rockets have plenty of fire-power with James Harden and Russell Westbrook, but the issue has been making the two "gel" and have a working chemistry. That does seem to be finally happening now, which is scary for the rest of the league. With a chance to put on a show for the World, I look for these two polarizing players to take over this contest. Key Trends: - Houston is 4-1 ATS already this season after four or more SU victories. - GS is only 6-8 ATS at home this year. - The Warriors are a poor 40-61 ATS in their last 101 after covering the spread in their previous game (including just 4-9 ATS this season.) The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, lay the points! |
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12-25-19 | Bucks v. 76ers +3.5 | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the 76ers. Milwaukee comes in off a 117-89 home win over Indiana, while Philadelphia crushed Detroit 125-109 on the road on Monday. This is the first matchup of the year between these Eastern Conference heavyweights and while the Bucks did take two of the three meetings last season, I think that the home court advantage on X-Mas Day can't be ruled out as a major deciding factor once it's all said and done. Key Trends: - Milwaukee is already a poor 1-3 ATS this year as a road favorite of six points or less. - The Bucks are also interestingly only 1-3 ATS this year after three straight covers as the favorite. - Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home dog. The verdict: It wouldn't be hard to write a convincing argument for either side, but after losing two of three last year, I think the 76ers offer great value to steal this one at home on X-Mas day; play on Philly! |
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12-25-19 | Celtics -3.5 v. Raptors | 118-102 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Boston Celtics. I like Boston to find a way to get the job done here. The C's come in focussed after their 119-93 destruction of the Hornets on Sunday, while the Raptors enter off a tough 120-115 OT loss on the road in Indiana. Boston already beat the Raptors 112-106 at home earlier in the year and I expect a similar result here as well. Overall the C's are averaging 111.2 PPG and conceding 103.2. THe Raptors are averaging 112.1 PPG and conceding 106.4. The Raptors though are playing with injuries to key players, including Paskall Siakam and Marc Gasol. Key Trends: - Boston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as a favorite. - Toronto is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a win percentage above .600. The verdict: The Celtics have had a couple days off to prepare for this game and I look for the surging visiting side to deliver the goods on the national stage; lay the points! |