Ricky’s 8* CLASH-OF-THE-TITANS on the LA Dodgers.

Domingo German (16-3, 4.15 ERA) has been exceptional this season overall for New York, but he does enter this one off the worst start of his career, allowing six runs off eight hits over five innings. Clayton Kershaw (13-2, 2.71) has been fantastic for LA this season and I think he’ll easily get the better of his now sputtering counterpart. Kershaw doesn’t have a decision vs. New York in his career, despite posting a tiny 0.90 ERA over 20 innings opposed. 

The verdict: As good as German has been this year, I believe he’ll struggle in this difficult road venue and in the National League format; lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 10* play on the under Braves/Mets.

A couple of veteran starters go head-to-head in this important National League contest on Sunday afternoon. I believe that they’ll battle deep into the latter frames and I look for that to indeed help in keep this total under the number once it’s all said and done. Dallas Keuchel (4-5, 4.14 ERA) goes up against Steven Matz (8-7, 4.18) of the Mets. Keuchel earned a win last time out, giving up one run over six innings vs. the Fish, while Matz allowed two runs over seven innings vs. the Indians.

The verdict: Atlanta’s taken the first two games of this series, including last night’s 9-5 victory. With these two surging starters squaring off, all signs do indeed point to the under as the savvy call here!

Ricky’s 9* BIG TIGER on the Chicago Cubs.

I think the surging Jose Quintana (11-7, 3.91 ERA) and the hungry home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot. Joe Ross gets the nod for the visitors, who left his last start early because of a come backer off his right leg. Note that Ross is just 1-1 with a ballooned 6.23 ERA in all “day” games this season. Quintana enters off a gem vs. the Pirates, going seven scoreless and striking out seven. 

The verdict: Quintana has been especially hot in August, going 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and a ridiculous 33/1 K/W over 26 frames of work. It’s safe to say that Quintana has re-found his old form and I’m banking on that trend carrying over here; lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the the New York Yankees.

I’m calling for the slight upset on Friday night. James Paxton (9-6, 4.53 ERA) has the difficult task of throwing opposite Dodgers’ ace Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-3, 1.64) this evening. Clearly it wouldn’t be difficult to write a convincing argument for either side to take this one. Admittedly the Dodgers have the advantage on the mound, but New York’s incredibly deep and talented hitting line-up negates that to a big extent in my opinion. 

The verdict: Note as well that Ryu is coming off his worst start of the year, allowing four runs over five innings in a loss to the Braves. Paxton’s been hit or miss this season, but I believe the southpaw can match Ryu inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the undervalued underdog; play on the Yanks!

Ricky’s 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS on the OVER Braves/Mets.

Clearly Jacob deGrom (8-7, 2.61 ERA) has been exceptional this year, but his counterpart Mike Foltynewicz (4-5, 6.09) has had a hell of a time this season. But it’s the gravity of the situation for New York, combined with how hot each club is overall that makes me believe this total is going to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. ATL leads the season series 8-5, but New York is a major league-best 27-10 since the Mid Summer Classic, including going 13-1 in their last 14 at home. 

Key Trends:

- Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in all four games it’s played in this year as an underdog of +150 or higher.

- New York has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 20 as a home favorite of -150 or higher this season.

The verdict: While both teams come in off low-scoring victories last night (New York 2-0 over Cleveland and the Braves 3-2 in Miami), I think the situation and the trends both point to the “over” as the correct call in this one!

Ricky’s 9* play on the Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers pulled off the 2-1 upset last night and at this price, I think the visitors offer great value to do it again on Thursday. Gerrit Cole is 14-5 with a 2.87 ERA and he’s been superb, but his counterpart Jordan Zimmeran (1-8, 6.66 ERA) won’t be lacking for motivation obviously. Zimmermann comes in off his best start of the year as well, holding the Rays scoreless over six innings with five K’s. 

The verdict: And while only 2-3 in his career at Minute Maid Park, note that Zimmermann sports a solid 3.34 ERA over those contests. I believe Houston gets caught looking past its highly motivated opponent; play on the Tigers!

Ricky’s 9* play on the under Marlins/Braves.

I think both teams will struggle to score runs tonight. The Marlins go with Sandy Alcantara (4-11, 4.35 ERA), while the home side counters with rookie phenom Mike Soroka (10-2, 2.41). 

The verdict: Atlanta has won four straight, while Miami has lost 11 straight on the road and five in a row overall. Soroka has been an absolute beast vs. the Fish this year, going 2-0 with a 0.41 ERA. Alcantara has been hit or miss this year, but he’s posted a solid 3.86 ERA over 11 2/3’s inning opposed vs. Atlanta. Look for this total to fall well below the number once it’s all said and done!

Ricky’s 10* play on the New York Mets.

The Mets have the superior starter on the hill in Noah Syndergaard (8-6, 3.86 ERA) in this particular matchup in my opinion. The Visitors go with the still relatively untested Aaron Civale (1-2, 1.50.) The Mets have take the first two games of this series and they’ve won five in a row overall, thanks in large part to a bullpen which has posted a 3.88 ERA since the break. Civale most recently allowed three runs over six innings in a loss to the Yanks, while Syndergaard gave up two runs over six innings to the Royals.

The verdict: I’m throwing the stats out the window for this one. Syndegaard has been exceptional over the last month and I believe his experience and his team’s overall momentum help in securing New York the series sweep this evening; lay the price!

Ricky’s 6* play on the Atlanta Braves.

Caleb Smith (8-6, 3.63 ERA) is in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one in my opinion and I like for Julio Teheran (7-8, 3.71) and the hungry home side to take advantage. The Braves won the opener 5-1 last night and I think they come in focused here as well. Teheran allowed six runs over two innings to the Mets on Thursday and I think he’ll bounce back here. It was the veterans worst start of his career and he’s 9-6 with a 3.60 ERA in 24 career starts against the Fish. 

The verdict: Teheran has been downright filthy vs. Miami this year as well, going 2-0 with a 0.36 ERA and 22 K’s with only six walks spanning 25 frames of work. Conversely, Smith is a poor 1-2 with a ballooned 5.73 ERA in four career match ups vs. Atlanta. I’m laying the price and expecting a rout from start to finish!

Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the Cleveland Indians.

Stephen Matz (7-7, 4.33 ERA) has been a lot better at home than on the road for New York, but Shane Bieber (12-5, 3.27) has been the model of consistency al season for the hard-hitting Indians. Both teams are still jockeying for a playoff spot, but I think Bieber is the correct call here. Bieber most recently gave up two runs over six innings while also striking out seven in an unfortunate no-decision to Boston on Wednesday. Over his last 38 innings of work Bieber has posted an insane 44/5 K/W. Matz has struggled in evening contests with a 4.89 ERA this year. 

Key Trends:

- Cleveland is 7-2 in its last nine interleague night games as a favorite in the -150 to -175 range.

- The Mets are only 2-5 in their last seven interleague home games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range.

The verdict: The quality of starting pitching matters tonight; expect the Tribe to strike the first blow in this series and lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Brewers/Cardinals.

These teams are embroiled in a wild card hunt and while each has plenty of firepower to put runs at the board at any given moment, I believe it’ll be the starting pitchers of tonight’s game who become the main story line’s in tomorrow’s summaries. The visitors see Zach Davies (8-5, 3.74 ERA) toe the slab, while Dakota Hudson (11-6, 3.82) gets the nod for the home side. Davies faltered in the second half, but he now returns refreshed after a stint on the DL (note that Davies has been at his best on the road this season as well, going 4-2 with a very respectable 2.97 ERA.) Hudson comes in off a gem, holding the Royals scoreless over six innings, allowing only five hits, two walks, while also striking out five (note that Hudson has been at his best at home this year as well with a 4-2, 3.60 ERA record to this point.) 

Key Trends:

- Milwaukee has seen the total dip under the number in eight of its last 11 National League road games in which the total is set between -135 and +135.

- St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven National League night home contests in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: I’m expecting these staters to throw deep and for this total to stay well below the number once it’s all said and done; play the under!

Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Cincinnati Reds.

I have no problem laying this price considering the talent discrepancy between the starting pitchers tonight. The visitors see Eric Lauer (6-8, 4.55 ERA) toe the slab and he most recently gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Rays (note that Lauer’s been at his worst on the road this year as well, going 3-5 with a ballooned 6.20 ERA.) Trevor Bauer (10-9, 4.12) gets the nod for the home side and he comes in off an outing to forget vs. the Nationals on Wednesday, allowing nine runs off eight hits over four innings. Starts like that have been few and far between for the veteran though, so there’s clearly no reason to hit the panic button. 

Key Trends:

- San Diego is just 2-6 in its last eight National League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +200 range.

- Cincinnati is 7-2 in its last nine National League home games as a favorite in the -135 to -185 range.

The verdict: I like Bauer to bounce back in friendly confines and I expect Lauer’s road issues to once again rear their ugly head; lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* RUN-LINE ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Cubs.

Jose Quintana (10-7, 4.11 ERA) is performing at his highest level in quite some time and I believe he’s worth laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. Quintana most recently gave up two runs (only one earned) over six innings, while also going on to strike out 14 in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to the hard-hitting Phillies on Tuesday. Over his last four starts Quintana has given up four runs and struck out 26 spanning 19 frames of work. Mitch Keller (1-1, 7.94) has been a train-wreck in his limited time so far for the Pirates, although after being recalled last week he would hold the Angels to one run over five innings in earning his first victory. The book is out on Keller clearly and I believe he’s in well over his head in this matchup. 

Key Trends:

- The Cubs are 7-2 in their last nine National League night road games in which they’re a favorite in the -135 to -200 range.

- The Pirates are only 8-11 in their last 19 home games as an underdog in the +150 to +225 range.

The verdict: Quintana has the experience and momentum to close out the regular season strong. The Cubs won’t be lacking for motivation here either after a scuffling stretch. Keller comes in off a great start, but an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent in my opinion; lay the 1.5 runs!

Ricky’s 6* BIG BAD BLOWOUT on the New York Mets.

I think Jacob deGrom (7-7, 2.68 ERA) is well worth the price of admission in this matchup. The home side sees the volatile Jacob Junis (8-10, 4.80) toe the slab. Overall deGrom owns a 6-8, 3.14 ERA record in 20 interleague starts. But note that deGrom enters on top form, having posting a 1.97 ERA over his last 15 stars and a 1.20 ERA over his last seven. Junis has been much better of late as well, most recently coming off a win over the Tigers, but I think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The verdict: After last night’s 4-1 loss (New York’s fourth loss in its last five), I look for the playoff hopeful Mets to rally behind their ace; lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Giants/Diamondbacks.

Two playoff hopeful clubs go head-to-head on Friday night and in my opinion, runs will be at a premium. Jeff Samardzija (9-9, 3.55 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors and he most recently gave up one run off two hits over eight innings in a victory over the Phillies on Saturday. Samardzija enters this on fire, posting  1.95 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and a 43/10 K/W over his last 50.2 innings of work. The home side counters with Mike Leake (9-9, 4.58) and he comes in off an outing to forget allowing eight runs on ten hits to the Dodgers on Sunday (note though that Leake owns a respectable 7-2, 3.04 ERA record in all “home” games this season.) 

Key Trends:

- San Francisco has seen the total dip under the number in eight of its last 12 National League road games in which the line is set between -125 and +125.

- Arizona has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 20 National League home games as a favorite in the -110 to -140 range.

The verdict: I like Leake to bounce back and expect Samardzija to carry over his recent momentum; this one has “duel” written all over it!

Ricky’s 8* play on the over Mets/Royals.

The Mets will look to take advantage of this favorable interleague matchup and in my opinion, everything points to a “slug-fest” on Friday night. New York sees Noah Syndergaard (8-5, 3.89 ERA) toe the slab for the visitors and he most recently gave up two runs off seven hits over seven innings in a no-decision to the Nationals. Overall “Thor” has been solid this year , but note he’s owns a 4.94 ERA in all “night” games thus far. Mike Minor (11-6, 2.90) has posted 15 shutout innings to open August, after posting a 6.59 ERA in July. 

Key Trends:

- New York has seen the total go over the number in 14 of its last 22 interleague road games as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

- KC has seen the total fly over the number in eight of its last 12 interleague home games as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range.

The verdict: These pitchers have been solid this year, but the overall situation and the numbers point to a higher-scoring affair in my opinion; play the over!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Dodgers/Braves.

Two teams which will be competition for the NL crown get together on Friday night and because of the talent level on the mound between the starting pitchers, I do indeed believe that runs will be at a premium. The visitors go with Kenta Maeda (8-8, 4.12 ERA) who comes in off a gem vs. the D-Backs on Saturday, going seven scoreless and striking out six. Overall Maeda has been solid this season with a 128/39 K/W over 122.1 frames of work. The home side sees Michael Soroka (10-2, 2.32) toe the slab and he most recently went seven scoreless in an unfortunate no-decision to the Fish on Saturday. 

Key Trends:

- LA has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 24 National League night road games when the total in the contest is set between -135 and +135.

- Atlanta has seen the total dip under the number in seven of its last 11 night home games in which the line is set between -135 and +135.

The verdict: The stage is set for these two starters to fight deep into the latter innings; play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Indians/Yankees.

Aaron Civale (1-1, 1.00 ERA) has been “lights out” for the Indians and I think that the rookie carries that momentum over into this difficult matchup. Most recently Civale allowed one run off four hits over six innings in a no-decision to the hard-hitting Twins on Sunday (overall Civale has an 18/4 K/W over 18 innings.) The home side sees Masahiro Tanaka (8-6, 4.64) toe the slab and he most recently went eight scoreless and struck out four in a win over the Jays on Sunday. Overall Tanaka has been solid this year, entering this one with a 114/34 K/W over 137.2 innings of work. 

Key Trends:

- Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 13 as a road American League underdog in the +125 to +175 range.

- New York has seen the total dip under the number in seven of its last 11 home games vs. an American League opponent as a fav in the -125 to -200 range.

The verdict: These are two of the hardest hitting clubs, not only in the Junior Circuit, but in all of MLB, but I believe Friday’s contest definitely sets up as a classic “duel.” This number is a little high, play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Padres/Phillies.

I think this National League contest sets up as a “duel.” The visitors hand the ball to Chris Paddack (7-5, 3.26 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits with one walk while striking out five over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Rockies on Saturday. Over 20 starts Paddack now owns a minuscule 0.93 WHIP. Vince Velasquez (4-7, 4.30) comes in off a hard-luck loss, giving up three runs over six innings vs. the Giants. Note that Velasquez enters on top form, posting a 2.78 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a 21/8 K/W over his last 22.2 innins of work spanning four starts.  

Key Trends:

- San Diego has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 National League road games when the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150.

- The Phillies have seen the total dip under the number in 15 of their last 25 National League home games as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: I’m expecting these hungry and clearly hot starters to battle deep into the latter frames and as a result, I look for this total to stay well below the posted number!

Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the LA Angels.

No need to overthink this one as I look for the home side to take advantage of what I believe to be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line would suggest. The visitors see Reynaldo Lopez (7-9, 5.16 ERA) toe the slab and he enters off a rare decent outing, giving up three runs over five innings in a win over the Phillies. Lopez has been more “miss” than “hit” this year though and note that he’s a terrible 3-4 with a 5.31 ERA on the road this season. Andrew Heaney (1-3, 4.89) looked sharp in his return from the IL last Saturday, giving up one run off three hits with four K’s over four innings in what turned out to be no-decision vs. the hard-hitting Red Sox on Saturday. 

Key Trends:

- Chicago is just 3-7 in its last ten American League night road games as an underdog in the +135 to +165 range.

- LA is 7-2 in its last nine home games by Heaney in which he’s a favorite of -150 or higher. 

The verdict: I believe Lopez takes a giant step back in this difficult road venue; lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS on the under Cards/Royals.

I had a play on the Cardinals last night and they ended up winning 2-0. I think that runs are going to once again be at a premium here as well. The visitors see Dakota Hudson (10-6, 4.01 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side counters with Brad Keller (7-12, 4.09). Hudson has conceded more than three earned runs only once in his past 20 starts. Keller enters having lost three straight, most recently getting shelled for five runs off ten hits over six frames in a loss in Detroit last week. Keller clearly won’t be lacking for motivation today and note that he’s 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA lifetime vs. the Cards.

Key Trends:

- St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 as a road favorite of -110 or higher.

- Kansas City has seen the total dip under the number in seven of its last ten interleague games.

The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, play the under!

Ricky’s 9* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Washington Nationals.

Trevor Bauer (10-8, 3.74 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors. Bauer had a great debut for his new team, but note that he still owns a sub-pr 4.80 ERA in all “night” games this year. Stephen Strasburg (14-5, 3.72) gave up three runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Friday and he comes into the final month of the regular season sporting a whopping 181/38 K/W over 152.1 frames of work.  

Key Trends:

- Cincinnati is just 19-29 as a road dog this year.

- Washington is 26-16 as a home favorite of -110 or higher.

The verdict: I think Bauer has his hands full vs. the surging Nationals team which has won six of eight; lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Robbie Ray (10-7, 3.99 ERA) has for the most part been as solid as Arizona could have possibly asked for this year and I think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his erratic counterpart Kyle Freeland (3-10, 7.06). Freeland has looked a bit better of late, but he’s still only 3-3 with a ballooned 5.40 ERA in ten career outings vs. the Diamondbacks. Freeland has allowed a whopping 22 home runs this year and the D-Backs already have seven dingers over the first two games of this series. Ray is 5-5 with a 5.21 ERA lifetime vs. Colorado, but he’s coming off a a gem vs. the Dodgers on Friday, allowing two runs over six innings while striking out seven. 

Key Trends:

- Arizona is a sharp 12-6 (+5.2 units) on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range.

- Colorado is just 5-11 (-4.4 units) this season as a home underdog.

The verdict: Look for Ray to easily out duel Freeland and for Arizona’s red hot bats to continue the onslaught; lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the over Rays/Padres.

Two suspect hurlers collide in this one and I expect runs to be plentiful. The Rays hand the ball to Brendan McKay (2-2, 4.55 ERA) who gave up three runs over five innings in a loss to the Jays on Wednesday. McKay has impressive strikeout numbers in the early going, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie to this point. The home side sees Eric Lauer (6-8, 4.51) toe the slab for the home side and he most recently allowed three runs off ten hits over four innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Rockies on Thursday (note that Lauer has been particularly ineffective in this spot all year as well, going just 4-6 with a 4.64 ERA in all “night” games. 

Key Trends:

- Tampa has seen the total fly over in seven of its last 11 interleague road games when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5.

- San Diego has seen the total fly over the number in 15 of its last 25 interleague home games as a favorite.

The verdict: Look for these starters to get the hook early and look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later!

Ricky’s 10* play on the LA Angels.

I had a free play on the Angels last night and they unfortunately came up short, falling late to the Pirates, who finally broke an eight-game losing streak. LA had won two in a row in Boston before returning home and looked flat from the start last night. But with a night to re-focus and with what I believe to be the clearly superior starter on the mound for it this evening, I look for LA to respond on Tuesday. The Pirates see Trevor Williams (4-5, 5.06 ERA) toe the slab for Pittsburgh. Williams most recently got blasted for six runs off eight hits in a loss to the Brewers on Wednesday. Griffin Canning (4-6, 4.76) gets the nod for the home side and he’s returning from a short stint on the IL. Previous to that Canning threw six scoreless innings in a victory. 

Key Trends:

- Pittsburgh is just 2-6 in its last eight road games following a road victory.

- LA is still 7-3 in its last ten interleague home games as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range.

The verdict: Look for Canning to deliver vs. the volatile Williams; lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 7* play on the St. Louis Cardinals.

I think that Jack Flaherty (5-7, 3.72 ERA) and the National League Cardinals offer great value here to smash Glenn Sparkman (3-7, 5.71) and the American League Royals. The Royals return home from a 3-6 road trip, while the Cardinals are in the thick of a wildcard race. Flaherty enters on top form, while only 1-1 over his last six trips to the hill, he’s posted a minuscule 0.94 ERA in that span (he’s faced the Royals once and dominated in that matchup as well, giving up two runs over seven innings in 2018.) Sparkman comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having posted four straight poor outings, allowing 22 runs over his last 19 2/3’s frames of work. 

Key Trends:

- St. Louis is 10-6 this year as a road favorite of -110 or higher.

- Kansas City is just 14-24 as a home underdog.

The verdict: It’s important to note that KC has a total of just 48 home runs over 58 games at home so far this year, 28th out of 30 teams. Look for Flaherty to easily out duel his volatile counterpart; lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves.

It’s a big game for both teams and clearly the oddsmakers think these starting pitchers are very evenly matched. And in my opinion, that makes the home field advantage a very real advantage for Max Fried (13-4, 4.11 ERA) over his counterpart Zach Wheeler (9-6, 4.20). Wheeler enters off a gem vs. the Marlins on Tuesday and he comes in on a 15-innings scoreless streak (he’s a pedestrian 4-4 with a 4.89 ERA on the road this year.) Fried comes in off a strong outing as well, striking out ten and allowing three runs off six hits and a walk over six innings in what turned out to be a victory over the hard-hitting Twins on Wednesday. Fried has won four straight and struck out 25 over his last 21.2 innings of work.

Key Trends:

- New York is just 8-20 (-10.6 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- Atlanta is 16-9 (+5.2 units) at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range.

The verdict: As good as Wheeler has been of late, I given Fried the big nod on the bump because of home field in this spot; lay the short price!

Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Cleveland Indians.

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest. The Red Sox see Eduardo Rodriguez (13-5, 4.17 ERA) toe the slab for the visitors, while the home side counters with Zach Plesac (6-3, 3.13). Boston is now 7.5 games back in the Wild card race and Cleveland has a big opportunity to drive some final nails in the coffin for the defending champs. Plesac made his debut in Boston this year and he’d give up one run over six innings in the victory. Plesac comes in off a gem as well, going six shutout frames vs. the Rangers. Rodriguez has been a bright spot for Boston this year, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

Key Trends:

- The Red Sox are just 11-20 (-10.1 units) this season when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125.

- The Indians are 24-12 (+7.8 units) this year vs. southpaws.

The verdict: Boston has lost 11 of its last 14, while Cleveland has won nine of its last 12. Expect these trends to continue on Monday night; play on the Indians!

Ricky’s 10* CA$H-BOMB on the Minnesota Twins.

The Twins moved a game ahead of the Indians with yesterdays’ victory and I believe the home side carries that momentum over here. Minnesota has to be feeling confident as well by sending ace Jose Berrios (10-6, 3.24 ERA) to the hill, as he’s 5-3 with a 3.86 ERA over ten career starts vs. Cleveland. The visitors counter with Aaron Civale (1-1, 0.75) who has given up only one run over 12 innings spanning two major league starts. Clearly though Civale faces his stiffest test of his young career tonight. 

Key Trends:

- Cleveland is just 11-13 in its last 24 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- Minnesota is 56-33 vs. right-handed starters this year.

The verdict: I think Civale takes a step back finally in this difficult matchup; lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the over Yanks/Jays.

These are two decent starting pitchers, but I still think this game is going to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Masahiro Tanaka (7-6, 4.93 ERA), while the home side goes with Trent Thornton (4-7, 5.55). Tanaka is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two starts vs. Toronto this year, while Thornton is 0-0 with a 9.72 ERA in two starts vs. New York. 

Key Trends:

- New York has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed five or more runs in.

The verdict: New York last two of three at Toronto from June 4-6th and after dropping yesterday’s contest 5-4, I believe the heavily favored visiting side “comes to play” today. I think these starting pitchers get the hook early; play the over!

Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the Atlanta Braves.

Caleb Smith (7-5, 3.35 ERA) has been a bright spot on the Marlins all year. He’s been better at home than on the road as well and he enters off an unfortunate loss for the Rays, giving up three runs over five innings. Julio Teheran (6-7, 3.46 ERA) comes in off a similar performance and overall it’s been a resurgent season for the veteran. Teheran has been better at home than on the road as well, but I still believe the Braves hold significant advantages in every other department. 

Key Trends:

- ATL is 16-10 vs. southpaws this year.

- Miami is 30-53 vs. right-handed starters this season.

The verdict: Unfortunately for Smith, he plays on the Marlins. I like Teheran to take advantage of this anemic Miami line-up for at ATL to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night; lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF MONTH on the UNDER Braves/Marlins.

A couple of capable hurlers go head-to-head in this one and in my opinion, everything points to runs being at a premium. Dallas Keuchel (3-4, 3.86 ERA) toes the rubber for the Braves, while the home side counters with Elieser Hernandez (1-4, 5.66). Hernandez comes in confident after his best start of the year, holding the hard-hitting D-Backs to one run off three hits with two walks over four innings on Sunday. Keuchel most recently allowed three runs off four hits and a walk over seven innings while striking out four in a no-decision to the Reds. Over 56 innings Keuchel has a 42/19 K/W. 

Key Trends:

- The Braves have seen the total go under in eight of their last ten vs. teams with a losing record.

- Miami has seen the total dip under in five of six this year after two straight losses by four runs or more.

The verdict: I think that the Fish have a difficult time posting any offense here; this number is a little high, play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies on the run line.

While I believe the outright win is not out of the question, in a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I’m going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Jason Vargas (6-5, 3.93 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors and he was solid in Phillies’ debut, allowing two runs with five K’s over seven innings in a victory over the White Sox on Friday. The home side counters with Zac Gallen (1-3, 2.72) who will make his debut for his new team today after rooming over from the Marlins.

Key Trends:

- Philadelphia is 7-2 in its last nine as a National League road dog in the +135 to +175 range.

The verdict: I love Vargas in this matchup; that said, lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs (as mentioned off the top!)

Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitchers and in my opinion, the visitors definitely have the upper-hand in this one. The Padres see Joey Lucchesi (7-6, 4.23 ERA) toe the slab and he most recently gave up four runs while striking out four over six innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Dodgers on Thursday. Despite the shaky start, Lucchesi enters with an elite 111/38 K/W thus far. The home side goes with the volatile Yusei Kikuchi (4-8, 5.49) who was rocked for six runs off nine hits and striking out one over four innings in a loss to the Astros on Friday. 

Key Trends:

- San Diego is 7-2 in its last nine interleague road games as a favorite in the -135 to -155 range.

- The Mariners are only 2-5 in their last seven home games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range.

The verdict: I love Lucchesi in this matchup and I believe he could/should in fact be a much larger fav. Lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Cardinals on the run-line.

While the outright win isn’t out of the question in my opinion, in a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra time, I’m going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Joe Flaherty (5-6, 3.93 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and he’s coming off a dominant outing vs. the Cubs on Thursday, going seven scoreless with one hit two walks and nine K’s. The home side counters with Dustin May (0-1, 4.76), who has had one decent start and one poor start as he fills in for the injury Hyun-Jin Ryu and Ross Stripling. 

Key Trends:

- St. Louis is 8-3 in its last 11 National League day games as an underdog in the +150 to +175 range.

The verdict: Note that over his last five starts Flaherty has been downright filthy, giving up just four earned runs with a 39/9 K/W over 31.1 frames of work. 

Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs.

These are two playoff hopeful clubs and in my opinion, home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Volatile Homer Bailey (9-7, 5.20 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors and he comes in off back-to-back decent starts, but if the veteran has one area in which he’s struggled in this year, it’s unquestionably been his play on the road where he’s just 3-4 with a 7.47 ERA. Jose Quintana (9-7, 4.40) comes in off a strong start as well, holding the Brewers to two runs with five K’s and no walks over six innings.

Key Trends:

- Oakland is just 2-7 in its last nine interleague day games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range.

- Chicago is 10-6 in its last 16 interleague home games as a favorite in the -135 to -155 range.

The verdict: Over his last five starts Quintana is 4-0 and I expect him to once again take advantage of the “Friendly Confines.” Lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians.

There was an over night pitching change in this one. I liked the Indians before, and I still like the Tribe despite the change. This is the first game of the double-header, with Ariel Jurado (6-6, 4.29 ERA) toeing the slab for the visitors and Zach Plesac (6-3, 3.41) countering for the Indians. Jurado is a terrible 1-2 with a 7.20 ERA over his last four starts. Plesac on the other hand is 4-1 with a 3.51 ERA at home this year. 

Key Trends:

- Texas is just 5-12 this season as a road dog in the +150 to +200 range.

- Cleveland is 14-7 at home as a favorite in the same price range.

The verdict: This one sets up perfectly for the hard-hitting home side, who I believe will take full advantage of the over night switch; lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Twins.

I think this one favors the home side in this interleague matchup. The Braves see the volatile Mike Foltynewicz (2-5, 6.37 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side counters with Jose Berrios (10-5, 2.80). Foltnewicz was sent to the minors back in June and he’s back in the big leagues after a respectable stint. Still, Foltynewicz is being thrown to the wolves here in this tough matchup in my opinion (note the ATL has now lost three of its last four games.) Berrios comes in with confidence after back-to-back victories, most recently striking out a season-high 11 batters in a victory over Miami on Wednesday (seven shutout frames.) 

Key Trends:

- Atlanta is just 5-12 (-5.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range.

- Minnesota is 20-9 at home as a favorite of -150 or higher.

The verdict: In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Lay the reasonable mid-sized price!

Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under Jays/Rays.

Jacob Waguespack (2-1, 4.80 ERA) comes in off a victory over the Royals on Wednesday, allowing one run off three hits with two K’s over six frames. Over 30 innings the 25 year old has a sharp 24:9 K:BB and he continues to improve with each outing. Charlie Morton (12-3, 2.78) gave up four runs to the Red Sox on Tuesday, but he’ll be feeling confident that he can bounce back here as he’s 6-1 with a 2.55 ERA at home.

Key Trends:

- Toronto has seen the total go under the number in eight of 11 American League road games in which it’s an underdog in the -175 to -225 range.

- Tampa Bay has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last 11 home AL contests as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range.

The verdict: This one has “duel” written all over it; play the under!

Ricky’s 10* CLASH-OF-THE-TITANS on the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brewers’ Jordan Lyles (6-7, 5.15 ERA) has a big opportunity to get back on track against his former team here and to help Milwaukee’s chances at one of the Wild Cards. Lyles though comes in off a gem vs. the surging A’s on Wednesday, holding them to one run off three hits with two walks while striking out four over five innings. Now with an opportunity to get immediate revenge on the team that traded him, I look for the veteran to deliver the goods here. Dario Agrazal most recently allowed three runs off six hits in a loss to the Reds on Wednesday for Pittsburgh and he’s now posted back-to-back poor outings. 

Key Trends:

- Milwaukee is 7-2 in its last nine National League road games as a favorite in the -115 to -135 range.

- Pittsburgh is 4-6 in its last ten National League home games as an underdog in the -110 to -130 range.

The verdict: I like Lyles and the playoff hungry Brewers to step up and deliver the goods; lay the short price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Oakland A’s. 

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

Key Trends:

Analysis posted shortly.

Ricky’s 10* play on the under Reds/Braves.

Sonny Gray is 6-6 for the Reds, while Julio Teheran is 6-7 for the Braves. Gray though sports a respectable 3.45 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, while Teheran has a 3.38 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Gray got an early lead vs. the Pirates in his last start and then cruised to the victory on Monday after allowing four runs off six hits. Overall Gray enters August on fire, having posted a 2.24 ERA and a 39/7 K/W in July. Teheran enters off a gem as well, giving up two runs off seven hits over seven innings, striking out six and walking two. Over his last six starts Teheran has posted a 1.87 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and a sharp 33/10 K/W.

Key Trends:

- Cincinnati has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 National League road games in which the total in the contest is either 9 or 9.5.

- The Braves have seen the total dip below the posted number in 13 of their last 21 at home when the total in the game is set at either 9 or 9.5. 

The verdict: All signs point to a classic “duel” in this one; play the under!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Oakland A’s. 

Adam Wainwright (7-7, 4.47 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the A’s turn to Tanner Roark (6-7, 4.24). Wainwright enters off a decent outing vs. the Cubs on Tuesday, but while he’s 5-2 with a 2.26 ERA at home, note that Wainwright is just 2-5 with a ballooned 7.16 ERA on the road this season. Roark make his first start for his new team; so far he owns a respectable 3.99 ERA in all “home” situations this year.

Key Trends:

- St. Louis is only 2-6 in its last eight afternoon National League road games as an underdog in the +115 to +135 range.

- The A’s are now 7-1 in their last eight home day games as a favorite in the -115 to -135 range.

The verdict: Look for Roark to deliver the goods in his first start for his new team and for Wainwright’s road struggles to continue; great price on the A’s!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves.

I think Trevor Bauer (9-8, 3.79 ERA) will struggle in his first start for his new team in this NL format. The Braves’ Dallas Keuchel (3-4, 3.86) will look to take advantage. Bauer is only 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in four starts since the break (and in his last trip to the hill he was crushed for eight runs over 4 1/3’s innings vs. the soft-hitting Royals.) Keuchel has a 3.52 ERA in six starts in July. 

Key Trends:

- Cincinnati is just 17-28 (-4.8 units) this year as a road dog of +100 or higher.

- Atlanta is 21-9 (+7.1 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: Keuchel at this price and considering Bauer’s recent form is a “steal” in my opinion; lay the price!

Ricky’s 6* play on the Houston Astros.

I like Aaron Sanchez (3-14, 6.07 ERA) to match his counterpart Marco Gonzales (12-8, 4.21) inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the hard-hitting home side is the correct call in this particular matchup. Sanchez is without question in a “funk” as he’s winless over his last 17 starts (0-13), but he’ll take confidence in the fact that he’s 2-0 with a 1.31 ERA in six appearances vs. Seattle. Gonzales has been sharp overall of late, but note that he’s 0-3 with a 7.58 ERA in five career appearances vs. Houston (that includes going 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA in two starts this year.) 

Key Trends:

- Seattle is a terrible 5-17 (-8.1 units) this year as a road dog of +150 or higher.

- Houston is 23-7 (+12.5 units) this season vs. southpaws.

The verdict: As stated off the top, I think it’ll be a war of attrition on the hill tonight, which I then believe definitely swings the favor to the home side; lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

Key Trends:

Analysis posted shortly.

Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago pulled away for an easy victory yesterday afternoon and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. The home side goes with Cole Hamels (6-3, 2.98 ERA) who has missed the last five weeks because of an oblique issue. Hamels comes in focused and refreshed for the final push of the season and he’s already dominated the Brewers twice this year, giving up two runs in 14-8 victory on April 6th, before then giving up one run over seven innings on May 11th. Milwaukee sees Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 3.48) take the hill and he had his last start pushed back after exiting his start vs. the Cubs on July 26th with a shoulder issue. Gonzalez has enjoyed success vs. the Cubs throughout his career, but i think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

Key Trends:

- As note that Milwaukee is now 11-16 (-3 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- Chicago is an amazing 21-7 (+12.4 units) at home this season with a money line in the -100 to -150 range.

The verdict: “Home field” is a very real deciding factor for Hamels here; lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the over Mets/Pirates.

Two suspect starters go head-to-head in this one and I believe that runs are going to be plentiful. Steven Matz (6-6, 4.32 ERA) gets the all for the Mets and he’ll be opposed by Trevor Williams (3-4, 4.77) of the Pirates. Pittsburgh got swept in New York just last weekend and it’s now firmly in the basement of the NL. The Mets come in with plenty of momentum after winning seven straight. Matz dominated the Pirates at home last weekend, but note that while he’s 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA at home, he’s a poor 2-6 with a 6.40 ERA on the road this season. Williams looked sharp against the Mets last week, but note that he’s a poor 1-1 with a 5.71 ERA at home this season.

Key Trends:

- The Mets have seen the total go over in eight of 12 already this year on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range.

- The Pirates have seen the total fly over in 16 of 21 already this season when the total is set between 9 and 9.5.

The verdict: All signs point to a high-scoring slug-fest in my opinion; play the over! 

Ricky’s 10* play on the over Astros/Indians.

It’s Gerritt Cole (12-5, 2.94 ERA) of the Astros, vs. Danny Salazar (0-0, 0.00) of the Indians in this one. Houston made some moves at the deadline to acquire sluggers Yasiel Puig and Franmill Reyes and each is expected to make his debut tonight. Cole’s been phenomenal, but the book is out on his counterpart obviously. 

Key Trends:

- Houston has seen the total go over in nine of its last 12 as a road favorite of -175 or higher.

- Cleveland has seen the total soar over in seven of its last ten as an underdog go +150 or higher.

The verdict: I believe we’re going to see an explosive finish in the finale of this important American League contest; play the over!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Minnesota Twins.

Minnesota has won the first two games of this series and I believe the Twins will keep the foot on the gas here as well. This is based primarily on the fact that Twins’ starter Michael Pineda (7-5, 4.30 ERA) is finally rounding into form, going 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA. Conversely his counter Jordan Yamomoto (4-2, 3.64) has regressed after a hot start, posting a poor 9.00 ERA over his past three trips to the mound. 

Key Trends:

- Minnesota is 16-4 (+10.9 units) this year on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range.

- Miami is just 7-21 (-10.6 units) this season at home with a money line in the +125 to +175 range.

The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, play the Twins!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago White Sox run line.

I’m laying the “pick em” price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Mets go with ace Jacob deGrom (6-7, 2.86 ERA), while the home side sees ace Lucas Giolito (11-5, 3.52) toe the slab. Giolito comes in off a terrible start vs. the Twins, allowing four home runs, but starts like that have truly been few and far between for a while now for the hard-throwing right-hander and I think he’s going to be able to match deGrom’s effort this evening. 

Key Trends:

- The Mets are just 2-8 in their last ten interleague night home games as a favorite in the -135 to -175 range.

- Chicago is 10-5 in its last 15 interleague home games as an underdog in the +140 to +175 range.

The verdict: In a contest which I see being decided late or even in extras, I’m playing this one on the run line!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins.

No upsets here as I expect the hard-hitting Twins and Jose Berrios (9-5, 2.94 ERA) to easily get the better of the lowly Marlins and Sandy Alcantara (4-9, 4.18). Alcantara is just 1-4 with a 4.75 ERA over his last eight starts, but he owns a deplorable 6.35 ERA over his last three trips to the hill. 

Key Trends:

- Minnesota is 8-3 in its last 11 interleague night games as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range.

- Miami only 7-13 in its last 20 home interleague contests as an underdog in the +150 to +200 range.

The verdict: Note as well that the Marlins are expected to be without slugging first baseman Garrett Cooper (11 homer runs, .294 batting average and 38 RBIs) with a hamstring injury. This one has “blowout” written all over it; play on the Twins!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Colorado Rockies.

Hyun Jin Ryu (11-2, 1.74 ERA) has been unbelievable overall this year, but I think he’ll struggle at Coors Field, the ballpark which definitely “evens the field” (note that Ryu is just 4-7 with a 5.34 ERA in 12 match ups lifetime vs. the Rockies as well.) German Marquez (10-5, 4.88) gets the nod for the home side and he comes in on top form, having gone back-to-back seven-inning efforts. 

The verdict: Marquez has to be feeling confident here as well as note that he’s 2-1 with a sharp 2.89 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Dodgers. Ryu can’t be feeling as good though, as note that he’s 1-4 with a 9.15 ERA in five starts at Coors. This one wreaks of “upset.” Play on the Rockies!

Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Yankees.

Zach Greinke (10-4, 2.87 ERA) is enjoying a strong season for the D-Backs. But after losing 4-2 in yesterday’s series opener, I think that Mashario Tanaka (7-6, 4.79) will bounce back after a scuffling stretch personally, while also helping his team bounce back from yesterday’s setback. 

Key Trends:

- Arizona is just 37-39 vs. right-handed starters this year

- The D-Backs are a money-burning 67-67 the L2 years in all “day” games.

- New York is 26-15 in all day games this season.

- The Yanks are 52-24 vs. right-handed starters this season.

The verdict: I think the “big bats” of New York “wake up” here and I expect Tanaka to match Greinke’s effort. In a scenario like that, I definitely think that the value lies with home side in this one!

Ricky’s 6* play on the Cincinnati Reds.

No upsets here, as I think that Louis Castillo (9-4, 2.71 ERA) will bounce back from a horrible start (rare) and get the better of his overachieving rookie counterpart Dario Agrazal (2-1, 3.24). The Pirates broke a seven game slide with a wild 11-4 win last night, a victory which featured a benches clearing brawl. I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Pittsburgh after that emotional win. Castillo was blasted for six runs over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Friday, but he’s a sharp 5-3 with a 2.28 ERA at home this season (and a red hot 8-1 with a 2.45 ERA in all “night” games.) Agrazal comes in off his worst start of his pro career, getting rocked for five rusn over five innings in 6-3 loss to the Mets on Friday. 

Key Trends:

- Pittsburgh is just 2-6 in its last eight road games after scoring ten or more runs in its previous contest.

- The Reds are 7-2 in their last nine day home games after allowing ten or more runs in their previous contest.

The verdict: After his last sub-par outing, I think that Castillo comes in “focused on the task at hand.” Lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 10* play on the over Mets/White Sox.

Noah Syndergaard is 7-5 with a 4.33 ERA this year, while Reynaldo Lopez is 5-9 with a 5.52 ERA. Neither starter can be happy with their overall record, but each has admittedly looked a lot better over the last month or so. Despite that though, I think this interleague contest sets up as a slug-fest and I expect each of these guys to “get the hook” early. 

Key Trends:

- As note that New York has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 interleague night road games in which it’s a favorite in the -140 to -160 range.

- Chicago has seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 16 home games as an underdog in the +140 to +160 range.

The verdict: I think this interleague contest eclipses the posted number sooner, rather than later; play the over!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Minnesota Twins.

I think that Jake Odorizzi (11-5, 3.84 ERA) is going to easily get the better of his younger counterpart Zac Gallen (1-2, 2.76) tonight. Odorrizzi is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA in five career starts vs. the Marlins, including 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA at Marlins Park. Gallen has made six major league starts and while he enters off a decent showing vs. the White Sox, clearly the sample size is just too small and I believe he’s definitely in over his head in this particular matchup. 

Key Trends:

- Minnesota is 7-2 in its last nine interleague road games as a favorite in the -140 to -160 range.

- Miami is still only 3-8 in its last 11 night home games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range.

The verdict: I like Odorizzi to bounce back after a poor start vs. the Yanks and to continue his strong trend of domination vs. the Marlins; lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the Angels on the run line.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

Key Trends:

Analysis posted shortly.

Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the over D-Backs/Marlins.

Neither of these starters instills a ton of confidence and in my opinion, this line is going to fly over sooner, rather than later. Caleb Smith (6-4, 3.30 ERA) goes for Miami, while Arizona turns to Merrill Kelly (7-10, 4.22). Miami won the opener of this four-game series 3-2, while Arizona took the second game 9-2. Miami then won 5-1 on Sunday. I believe all signs point to a higher-scoring affair here though. Smith has never faced the D-Backs in his career and while he’s been solid overall, it’s interesting to note that he has a poor 5.06 ERA in the first inning this year. Kelly has allowed 19 homers in 21 starts. 

Key Trends:

- Arizona has seen the total go over the number in 31 of 54 on the road already this year.

- The D-Backs have seen the total soar over in 18 of 27 vs. southpaws.

- Miami has seen the total go over in 12 of 17 already this year at home when the total is between 8 and 8.5. 

The verdict: Note as well that Kelly has been much worse on the road (4.98 ERA) than at home (3.57). This one has “slugfest” written all over it, play the over!

Ricky’s 10* run line play on the New York Yankees.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Revenge. I think it works here. After three straight blowout losses, I think the high-powered Yanks bring their “A” game to the table on the nationally televised Sunday night game. 

Key Trends:

- New York is already 9-4 (+2.9 units) this year after having lost four or five of its last six games.

- Boston is already just 12-14 (-8 units) this season after having won five or six of its last seven games.

The verdict: These starters are a “wash,” but the desperation level in which the Yanks play with tonight ends up being the situational difference; lay the pick em price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Miami scored a 3-2 upset in ten innings on Friday, but Arizona rolled to a 9-2 victory on Saturday. No upsets here in my opinion though on Sunday either as I look for Robbie Ray (9-6, 3.95 ERA) of the D-Backs to easily get the better of his volatile counterpart Elieser Hernandez (1-4, 5.24). Ray has produced four quality starts in a row, going 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA in the process. Overall Ray is 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA lifetime in Miami. Hernandez on the other hand is 0-1 with an atrocious 9.39 ERA in six relief outings this year and 1-3 with a  4.05 ERA in five starts. 

Key Trends:

- Arizona is a perfect 4-0 this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

- Miami is a terrible 6-19 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

The verdict: I’m banking on Ray continuing his hot form as he continues to be the subject of trade rumors; lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets.

Ultimately I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line would suggest. The visitors go with the volatile Chris Archer (3-7, 5.40 ERA), while the home side counters with Jason Vargas (5-5, 3.96). New York has won three straight overall and it’s hungry for the series sweep here. The Pirates on the other hand are clearly moving in the opposite direction now having gone just 2-13 since the break. Vargas comes in off a gem as well, holding the Friars scoreless over six frames. Archer comes in off a terrible performance, allowing four runs over six innings in a loss to St. Louis.

Key Trends:

- Pittsburgh is a brutal 10-15 as a road underdog in the +100 to +150 range this year.

- The Mets are 10-5 in their last 15 as a home favorite in the -100 to -150 range.

The verdict: New York hasn’t thrown in the towel yet; lay this reasonable price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Cincinnati Reds.

Alex Wood (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his season debut for Cincinnati and I think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his volatile counterpart Peter Lambert (2-2, 5.93). Wood went 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA in four rehab assignments and he was 9-7 with a 3.68 ERA for the Dodgers last year. Lambert is 0-2 over his last six trips to the hill, giving up three runs over five innings in a loss at Washington most recently. 

Key Trends:

- Colorado is just 23-31 on the road this year.

- Cincinnati is 5-2 as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range this season.

The verdict: Wood couldn’t have asked for a better first matchup; expect the veteran to make the most of it and lay this price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies.

No need to overthink this one. After dropping the first two games of this series, I think the Phillies bounce back in the finale with their ace on the mound (I had a play on Atlanta last night.) Kevin Gausman (3-5, 5.71 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the Phillies go with Aaron Nola (8-2, 3.64). Gausman returned from injury and looked decent in his first start back vs. the Nationals, but note that he’s 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA in three career starts vs. Philadelphia. Nola on the other hand is 9-3 with a 2.26 ERA in 15 career match ups vs. ATL. Overall Nola is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in July and I think he’ll be the difference maker in this crucial game for the home side.

Key Trends:

- Atlanta is just 5-10 (-3.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range.

- Philadelphia is 22-13 (+6.3 units) this season in all “day” games.

The verdict: Considering the gravity of this game for Philadelphia, I think we’re getting an unbelievable price on Nola in this match-up; lay it!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians.

I think that Mike Clevinger (4-2, 3.61 ERA) and the hard-hitting Tribe are well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The home side counters with the volatile Glenn Sparkman (3-6, 4.67). In four July starts Clevinger is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA, walking five and striking out 34. Sparkman’s been much better at home than on the road throughout his career, but he’s a poor 0-1 with a ballooned 5.51 ERA in three career starts vs. the Tribe.

Key Trends:

- Cleveland is 14-4 this year as a favorite of -200 or higher.

- KC is just 13-23 as a home dog this season.

The verdict: Note as well that Clevinger is 7-0 with a 2.03 ERA in 11 career appearances vs. the Royals. Lay the price and expect a blowout!

Ricky’s 10* play on the over Cubs/Brewers.

Cubs’ starter Jon Lester (9-6, 3.87 ERA) comes in struggling, having allowed four or more runs in six of his last 12 starts. These teams are fighting for positioning and after yesterday’s 3-2 Milwaukee victory, I’m expecting much more of a “slug-fest” on Saturday. The Brewers go with Chase Anderson (5-2, 3.90) to toe the slab. Anderson has been sharp of late and while both pitchers have enjoyed success over their respective opponent today in the past, I believe that the situation and the numbers point to a higher-scoring affair this time around. 

Key Trends:

- Chicago has seen the total go over the number in nine of its last 14 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- Milwaukee has seen the total go over in 12 of its last 20 overall.

The verdict: I think these normally steady starters get chased early; play the over!

Ricky’s 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the Atlanta Braves.

I like the Braves to build off their beatdown victory in last night’s series opener. The visitors see Max Fried (10-4, 4.08 ERA) toe the slab, while Zach Eflin (7-10, 4.25) gets the nod for the home side. Fried makes his first start since the 15th when he exited a game vs. the Brewers with a blister issue (before that he held Milwaukee to three hits over five scoreless frames.) In seven career appearances vs. the Phillies Fried is 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA. Eflin has been a complete “gas can” over the last month or so and I have a hard time seeing the struggling starter just “flipping a switch” here (he’s gone 1-3 with a ballooned 9.38 ERA over his last five starts.) 

Key Trends:

- Atlanta is 9-1 (+7.8 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

- Philadelphia is just 11-15 (-6.5 units) this season vs. southpaws.

The verdict: I believe Eflin gets chased early; all things considered, a great price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the San Diego Padres.

No upsets here as I look for the scuffling home side to lay everything on the line tonight as it desperately tries to get back into the Wildcard race. Jeff Samrdzija (7-8, 4.08 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the Padres counter with Joey Lucchesi (7-5, 4.27.) The Padres won’t be lacking for motivation here either after the Giants swept them from July 1-3, outscoring them 30-11 in the process. 

Key Trends:

- San Francisco is still only 11-14 this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- San Diego is still 17-10 (+8.4 units) in its last 27 after scoring two runs or less.

The verdict: Look for the hungry home side to deliver the goods in this big time revenge scenario; lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins.

I like the Twins to build off their win yesterday. Minnesota hands the ball to Michael Pineda (6-5, 4.41 ERA), while the home side counters with Dylan Cease (1-2, 6.19). Pineda has given up one earned run in each of his past three trips to the hill, going 2-1 with 20 K’s and just two walks. Cease gave up four runs over five innings in a loss to the Rays on Sunday, which was his third start since being recalled.

Key Trends:

- Minnesota is 14-6 this season as a road favorite of -125 or higher.

- Chicago is just 3-6 in its last nine vs. clubs with winning records.

The verdict: Keep your eyes on Twins’ slugger Nelson Cruz, who hit three home runs in yesterday’s 10-3 series opening victory (he has eight dingers in his last nine games.) Chicago has lost 11 of its last 14 and I expect its struggles to continue here; lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

No upsets here as I think that Arizona ace Zack Greinke (10-4, 2.93 ERA) will easily get the better of his volatile counterpart Sandy Alcantara (4-9, 4.25) of the Marlins. Arizona is stuck right around the .500 mark and there’s no better time than right now to make its move for one of the Wild Cards. Alcantara has lost three straight, allowing a combined ten runs over his last 11 innings of work. Greinke on the other hand is 7-0 with a 3.19 ERA in 12 career appearances vs. Miami, including 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in two starts vs. it last year. Greinke comes in off a strong performance, holding the Brewers to two runs over seven innings.  

Key Trends:

- Arizona is a perfect 4-0 this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher.

- Miami is a terrible 8-23 as a home dog of +125 or higher. 

The verdict: The stage is set for an epic destruction in my opinion and this line could/should in fact be much larger; lay it!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Braves/Phillies.

Two teams which have no issues plating runs go head-to-head on Friday night, but I believe it’ll be the starting pitchers who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. The Braves go with rookie phenom Mike Soroka (10-2, 2.46 ERA), while the home side counters with veteran Jake Arrieta (8-7, 4.40). Arrieta has allowed just two earned runs over his last 11 innings of work.

Key Trends:

- Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in 14 of 21 this year on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range.

- Philadelphia has seen the total go under in 16 of 24 this year after two or more straight victories.

The verdict: Playoff positioning aside, I believe all signs point to a classic “duel” between these two hungry teams on Friday night. Play the under!

Ricky’s 10* play on the under Dodgers/Nationals.

I’m expecting an all out “duel” here between these capable hurlers. Hyun-Jin Ryu (11-2, 1.76 ERA) gets the call for the Dodgers, while the home side counters with Anibal Sanchez (6-6, 3.80.) The Nationals come in off an 8-7 loss to the Rockies on Thursday, but it was just its fourth setback in its last 17 home games. Ryu though has dominated the Nats throughout his career, going 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP in four career starts vs. them. Sanchez though has been equally as hot of late, going 6-0 with a 2.70 ERA over his last nine starts. While just 1-3 vs. the Dodgers, note that Sanchez does own a very respectable 3.69 ERA in eight career match ups vs. LA.

Key Trends:

- LA has seen the total dip under in 12 of 18 already this season when the total is set between 9 and 9.5.

- Washington has seen the total go under the number in 15 of 23 this year when the total is set between 9 and 9.5.

The verdict: Ryu comes in on fire across the board as he is 2-0 over his last three starts, giving up one run off our hits over seven innings in a 2-1 win over Miami on Friday. As mentioned off the top, I expect these red hot hurlers to battle deep and as such, I look for this total to stay well below the posted number!

Ricky’s 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the Oakland A’s. 

I don’t normally attach a 10* rating to a pick with a line of this size, but in this case I absolutely believe that the talent mismatch on the mound justifies the wager. Ariel Jurado (5-6, 4.92) toes the slab for the visitors and he enters off an outing to forget, getting rocked for five runs off eight hits with a walk over five innings in a loss to the Astros. Note that Jurado has been particularly ineffective in all “night” games by going just 3-3 with a ballooned 5.77 ERA. Brett Anderson (9-5, 3.82) gets the nod for the home side and he’s been at his best in all “night” contests this year, going 7-2 with a 2.69 ERA.

Key Trends:

- Texas is just 3-8 in its last 11 American League night road games as an underdog in the +150 to +175 range.

- Oakland is 9-4 in its last 13 home games as a favorite in the -165 to -185 range.

The verdict: I believe Jurado’s issues continue in this difficult road venue; lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 9* CA$H-BOMB on Cleveland Indians.

No need to overthink this one. I absolutely feel that Adam Plutko (3-2, 4.81 ERA) and the hard-hitting visiting side are well worth the price of admission in this particular contest. Plutko comes in off a loss despite allowing just one run off two hits while striking out four over seven innings in a setback to these very Royals on Saturday. The home side counters with the erratic Mike Montgomery (1-3, 6.83) who was shelled for five runs off six hits while striking out one over two innings in a loss to these very Indians last Friday. 

Key Trends:

- Cleveland is 7-2 in Plutko’s last nine American League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -150 range.

- The Royals are just 2-5 in their last seven home games as an underdog in the +135 to +165 range.

The verdict: I’m expecting Montgomery to get the hook early and I look for Plutko to build off his last strong effort vs. KC last week; lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the under Cards/Pirates.

A couple competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one, with Miles Mikolas (6-10, 4.17 ERA) getting the nod for the visitors and Joe Musgrove (7-8, 4.08) toeing the slab for the home side. Mikolas comes in off a decent start vs. the Reds on Saturday, but still took the loss despite allowing three runs over six frames, while also striking out four. Overall Mikolas owns a respectable 82:19 K:BB over 114.1 innings of work this year. Musgrove also enter off a strong start, giving up one run with two walks and eight K’s over six innings in a win over Philadelphia on Saturday. 

Key Trends:

- Note that St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 23 National League day road games in which the total is set at either 9 or 9.5.

- Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 11 at home when the money line in the contest is set between -135 and +135.

The verdict: Both Mikolas and Musgrove come in off strong performances and neither will be lacking for motivation here after a poor first half. When you add it all up, this number is a high in my opinion; play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Dodgers.

No need to overthink this one, as I believe the massive talent discrepancy on the mound this evening absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jaime Barria (3-3, 7.36 ERA), while the home side counters with Ross Stripling (4-3, 3.64). Barria most recently was shelled for ten runs off nine hits with four walks over three innings in a 10-0 loss to the Mariners. Stripling is just 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in five starts since re-joining the rotation in late June, but note that he’s been at his best at home by going 2-1 with a 3.11 ERA thus far. 

Key Trends:

- The Angels are just 12-17 as a road dog this year.

- The Dodgers are 36-10 as a home favorite of -150 or higher.

The verdict: All things considered, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger; play on the Dodgers!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago White Sox.

Miami evened this series with a 5-1 win on Tuesday, but I think that the home side will bounce back in the finale. The Marlins go with rookie right-hander Zac Gallen (0-2, 3.63 ERA), while the Chi-Sox see Reynaldo Lopez (5-8, 5.76 ERA) toe the slab. Gallen’s been decent, but the sample size is still too small in my opinion (note that this will be Gallen’s first interleague start of his career.) Lopez has “turned the corner” in the second half with back-to-back quality starts since the break, including a 9-2 win over Tampa Bay, allowing two runs over seven innings. 

Key Trends:

- Miami is still only 5-10 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range this year.

- Chicago is 14-5 (+7.8 units) this season as a home favorite.

The verdict: I believe Lopez continues his progression and as mentioned off the top, I’m expecting Gallen to take a step back in this interleague road contest; play on the Sox!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves.

I have no problems laying this larger price on Julio Teheran (5-6, 3.61 ERA) and the hard-hitting home side. The Royals counter with Brad Keller (6-9, 4.18). The Braves definitely won’t be taking anything for granted here either after they let the Royals win the series opener 5-4 on Tuesay, with KC rallying with three runs in the eighth. Keller comes in off a decent out, but note that he’s just 1-2 with a 4.75 ERA in vs. the NL. Teheran enters on top form though, having walked only three batters in 17 2/3’s innings while posting a 1.53 ERA this month. 

Key Trends:

- The Royals are just 2-7 in their last nine after a one run victory.

- Atlanta is 8-3 in its last 11 interleague home games after allowing five or more runs in a  loss in its previous outing.

The verdict: I like Teheran to carry over his recent momentum and for the Braves for respond after last night’s “brain fart.” Lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets.

The Mets will look to take advantage of this clear mismatch on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Dinelson Lamet (0-2, 5.14 ERA), while the home side counters with the steady Noah Syndergaard (7-4, 4.36). Lamet has struck out 19 over his first three starts back from Tommy John surgery, but he’s also walked six in 14 innings. 

Key Trends:

- San Diego is a poor 20-32 this season vs. teams with losing records.

- New York is still 10-4 in its last 14 at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range.

The verdict: Both teams are now essentially out of the playoff race, but I like Syndergaard to buckle down at home here and to get the better of his erratic counterpart; lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Texas Rangers.

I think Mike Minor (8-5, 2.86 ERA) and the Rangers will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night vs. Mike Leake (8-8, 4.27) and the Mariners. Both pitchers have been decent this year and each is rumoured to be on the move by the trade deadline. Minor’s already defeated Leake and the M’s twice this season though, while Leake is just 1-3 with a 4.90 ERA in eight lifetime starts vs. the Rangers. 

Key Trends:

- Texas is a perfect 6-0 this year on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range.

- Seattle is just 5-9 this year as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

The verdict: Both teams are out of the playoff picture, but Minor is the “correct” call in this matchup in my opinion; lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

John Means (8-5, 2.95 ERA) has been a bright spot for Baltimore this year. However, I think the rookie will predictably struggle in this difficult interleague road venue. Taylor Clarke (2-3, 6.50) who looked a bit shaky in his first start back from the IL on Friday vs. the Brewers, allowing four runs over four innings. Clarke though has a big opportunity to get back on track here facing the inept Orioles and I believe the rookie will make the most of it. 

Key Trends:

- Note that Baltimore is just 19-43 vs. right-handed starters this year.

- Note that Arizona is 12-4 in inter-league contests this year.

The verdict: I think that Means takes a major step back here vs. the desperate D-Backs; lay the short price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Philadelphia Phillies.

No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as I believe the talent discrepancy on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying this road price. Aaron Nola (8-2, 3.77 ERA) toes the rubber for the visitors, while the home side goes with Matt Boyd (6-8, 4.13). Nola comes in off an outing to forget against the Dodgers, but he’s 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in two career starts vs. Detroit. The Phillies continue to fight for a playoff spot as they come in having won five of their last eight. Boyd has allowed between three and five earned runs in his last eight starts and his ERA has gone from 2.85 to 4.13 in the process.  

Key Trends:

- Philadelphia is 12-6 this year as a road favorite in the -100 to -150 range.

- Detroit is just 1-14 this year as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

The verdict: Boyd’s likely on his way out of Detroit after this game and I think his “head” won’t be “in the game” tonight. And that definitely leaves the door open for Nola, who is out to atone for his latest poor effort. All things considered, a very fair price; lay it!

Ricky’s 10* play on the over Padres/Mets.

These teams are a combined 14 games below .500. Neither has given up, meaning this is a very important series. Each had yesterday off. I believe the situation points to a higher-scoring affair between two clubs who often struggle at the plate. The visitors go with Chris Paddack (6-4, 2.70 ERA) to toe the slab, while the Mets go with Jason Vargas (4-5, 4.25.) 

Key Trends:

- San Diego has seen the total go over the number in nine of 13 this year as a road favorite.

- New York has seen the total go over in nine of 11 this year when playing with a day off.

The verdict: As mentioned off the top, I think this one sets up as a “slug-fest.” Play the over!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rangers/Mariners.

The Rangers have lost seven in a row after Sunday’s 5-3 defeat at Houston. The Mariners have lost ten of their last 11 and have been out of the playoff picture for a long time. Two teams with more questions than answers collide on Monday night and in my opinion, I think runs will be at a premium. Adrian Sampson (6-6, 4.92 ERA) toes the slab for the Rangers and he’s 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Mariners. The home side counters with Marco Gonzales (10-8, 4.48), who is 4-3 with a 3.35 ERA in eight career starts vs. Texas. 

Key Trends:

- Texas has seen the total go under the number in 28 of 35 already this year vs. clubs with losing records.

- Seattle has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight vs. clubs with winning records.

The verdict: I think these starters “battle deep.” This number is a little high, play the under!

Ricky’s 6* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

I think that Robbie Ray (8-6, 3.92 ERA) and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot, with the “toothless” Orioles countering with the erratic Aaron Brooks (2-3, 4.69). Ray enters on top form, having won three straight, conceding a combined six runs over 19 innings of work (eight walks and 23 K’s in that span.) Brooks has been used primarily as an “opener” and I think he’ll be on a “short leash” in this difficult National League format/venue tonight as well.  

Key Trends:

- The Orioles are a poor 13-25 this year as a road dog of +150 or higher.

- The D-Backs are 11-4 (+8.2 units) in interleague games this year.

The verdict: Ray is reportedly on the trading block, so look for the veteran to keep his focus on the field of play tonight; lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Yankees/Twins.

It’s a battle of division leaders in Minnesota on Monday night and while both teams are known for their offensive prowess, I believe that the starting pitchers will be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. New York sees CC Sabathia (5-4, 4.06 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side counters with Martin Perez (8-3, 4.10). Sabathia is 20-9 with a 3.09 ERA in 39 career starts vs. the Twins. Perez has had issues with the Yanks over the years, but he’s been at his best at home this season, going 4-2 with a 3.19 ERA.

Key Trends:

- New York has seen the total go under the number in ten of 14 so far in the second half of the season.

- Minnesota has seen the total go under in six of nine as a home underdog this year.

The verdict: Note that Sabathia is also 12-1 in his last 16 starts vs. the Twins. 

Ricky’s 8* play on the under A’s/Astros.

Homer Bailey (1-0, 3.00 ERA for the A’s) beat the Mariners 10-2 in his Oakland debut and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here. Bailey would go on to give up two runs over six innings, walking none and striking out six. The home side counters with Gerrit Cole (10-5, 3.12), who has conceded more than one run just once in his last six starts. 

Key Trends:

- Oakland has seen the total go under the number in 16 of 26 this year as a road dog.

- Houston has seen the total go under the number in 23 of 34 this year when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5.

The verdict: Additionally note that Bailey is 3-0 with a minuscule 1.46 ERA in eight career starts vs. Houston, while Cole is 3-1 with a 3.30 ERA in seven career starts vs. the A’s. This one has “duel” written all over it; play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians.

Cleveland’s been the hottest team in the entire league since early June and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas here in this favorable matchup. Toronto returns home dejected after going 4-6 on a road trip, including losing 4-3 in ten innings to the Tigers yesterday afternoon. The visitors see Mike Clevinger (3-2, 3.57 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side counters with Ryan Borucki (making his season debut.) Clevinger enters off his best start of the year, giving up on run over six innings while also striking out 12 in a win over the Tigers on Wednesday. 

Key Trends:

- Cleveland is 21-10 (+8 units) this year vs. southpaws.

- Toronto is just 22-42 (-19.2 units) vs. right-handed starters.

The verdict: Clevinger is also 2-0 with a minuscule 1.06 ERA over his last three starts overall and 2-1 with a 3.56 ERA in four career appearances vs. Toronto. Borucki was 4-6 with a 3.87 ERA in 17 starts last year as a rookie. This one has “blowout” written all over it; lay it!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under A’s/Twins.

I’m expecting a “duel” between these two hungry American League clubs on Sunday afternoon. Michael Pineda (6-5, 4.38 ERA) goes for Minnesota, while Daniel Mengden (5-1, 4.21) gets the nod for the visitors. Pineda has conceded more than three runs in a games just once in his last 12 starts and he’s 4-1 with a tiny 2.75 ERA in six career starts vs. Oakland. Mengden comes in having won four straight.

Key Trends:

- Oakland has already seen the total go under the number in 23 of 35 this year vs. teams with winning records.

- Minnesota has seen the total go under in nine of 12 home games already this year with a total of either 10 to 10.5. 

The verdict: Look for these two competent hurlers to battle deep into this one, and play the under!

Ricky’s 6* play on the Tampa Bay Rays.

No upsets here today as I expect Rays ace Blake Snell (5-7, 4.55 ERA) to get the better of his younger counterpart today. Tampa lost 2-1 in 11 innings yesterday, but I expect the home side to respond here. Snell had a 9.64 ERA in June, but so far in July he’s allowed two earned runs over ten innings, both starts coming against the high-powered Yankees. The White Sox go with Dylan Cease (1-1, 5.73), who makes his third major league starts of his career, most recently getting rocked for six runs over six innings in a loss to the Royals. 

Key Trends:

- Chicago is a terrible 16-28 (-8.1 units) this season in all “day” games.

- Tampa is 18-9 this season as a home favorite of -150 or higher.

The verdict: After yesterday’s loss, look for Tampa to take advantage of this favorable matchup; lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Royals/Indians.

After scoring 43 runs over six games, the Tribe were held to just three hits in their last outing, a 1-0 Royals victory on Saturday. I think we’ll see a few more runs than that today, but all signs once again point to a lower-scoring “duel” in the finale of this three game set in my opinion. Kansas City goes with Glenn Sparkman (3-5, 4.54 ERA) who comes in off his best start of his career, scattering five hits and striking out eight in his first career shutout vs. the White Sox on Tuesday. The home side sees Zach Plesac (3-3, 3.56) toe the slab, who also comes in off a strong outing vs. Detroit in his last start, allowing no runs or hits over a rain-shortened three innings of work. 

Key Trends:

- KC has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 as a road dog in the +150 to +200 range.

- Cleveland has seen the total go under in 22 of its last 37 “day” games.

The verdict: In my opinion, the overall situation combined with the above strong O/U trends exhibited by each side, do indeed point to the under as the correct call in this one!

Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the over Marlins/Dodgers.

LA Dodgers’ starter Clayton Kershaw (8-2, 3.00 ERA) is enjoying another solid year, but he’s just 5-5 vs. Miami in 11 career match ups. LA won’t be taking anything for granted here either in my opinion after it’s lacklustre 2-1 victory last night. And that’s bade news for Marlins’ starter Sandy Alcantara (4-9, 3.94), who has lost three straight and posted a ballooned 6.11 ERA (Alcantara was most recently shelled for four runs off nine hits over six innings in a loss to the Mets.) 

Key Trends:

- Miami has seen the total go over the number in 9 of its last 14 after allowing three runs or less in three straight games.

- LA has seen the total soar over in 20 of its last 32 as a home favorite of -150 or higher.

The verdict: The situation and the numbers point to a “slug-fest” in my opinion; play the over!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs.

The Padres have lost six of their last seven and I believe the slide continues on Saturday afternoon. The Cubs are now trending in the other direction, having gone 6-1 since the Mid-Summer Classic. The visitors go with Joey Lucchesi (7-4, 3.92 ERA), while the home side sees Jose Quintana (7-7, 4.21) toe the rubber. Lucchesi has made one start vs. the Cubs, giving up three runs off seven hits over five innings. Quintana is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two lifetime starts vs. the Friars. 

Key Trends:

- San Diego is just 7-10 vs. southpaws this season.

- Chicago has struggled vs. lefties as well this year (just 7-10), but it’s a sharp 20-6 (+11 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

The verdict: San Diego has committed nine errors over its last five games and I believe its slide back into mediocrity continues in the sweltering afternoon Chicago heat; lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Mets/Giants.

A couple of pitchers who I expect to start and go deep go head to head in this one on Friday night and I think runs will be at a premium. The visitors see Jacob deGrom (5-7, 3.21 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side goes with Tyler Beede (3-3, 5.44). deGrom enters off a gem, allowing one run off six hits with three walks over five innings vs. Miami on Sunday. Overall the Mets’ ace has a stellar 144:28 K:BB this year (note that he’s 4-3 with a 2.80 ERA on the road this season.) Beede enters off a strong outing as well, allowing three runs while striking out seven over seven innings vs. the Brewers on Sunday. Overall Beede is 2-0 in July, striking out 11 and allowing four runs over 14 frames of work. 

The verdict: I’m expecting these starters to continue their recent form and as such, everything points to the under as the correct call in this one!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rangers/Astros.

Two All Stars square off on the mound Friday night and in my opinion, runs will definitely be at a premium. Mike Minor (8-4, 2.73 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while the home side counters with Justin Verlander (11-4, 2.98). Minor took a no-decision vs. the Astros last weekend, allowing four runs off seven hits with seven K’s over five innings. Note though that Minor is 7-3 with a 2.47 ERA in all night games this year. Verlander started the second half with another victory, giving up two runs and one walk with seven K’s over six innings vs. these very Rangers last Sunday. Note that Verlander is 7-3 with a 2.81 ERA in all “night” contests this season.

Key Trends:

- Texas has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 13 road games as an underdog in the +175 to +225 range.

- Houston has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 15 home games in which Verlander is throwing and in which the total is either at 8 or 8.5.

The verdict: With these two battling deep into the latter frames, all signs point to the under as the correct call here!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins.

I think that Jake Odorizzi and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors go with Chris Bassitt (6-4, 3.98 ERA) who comes in off a gem, going six scoreless vs. the White Sox on Saturday. For the most part Bassitt’s been as solid as Oakland could have possibly asked for this season, but note that if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play on the road where he’s just 2-2 with a subpar 4.73 ERA. Odorizzi (11-4, 3.06) enters off a gem vs. the Indians on Saturday, giving up one run over six innings in the eventual victory. 

Key Trends:

- Oakland is just 2-7 in its last nine American League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the +115 to +150 range.

- Minnesota is 8-3 in its last 11 as a favorite in the -115 to -135 range.

The verdict: Note that Odorizzi has been at his best at home as well this year, going 6-0 with a 2.27 ERA. Lay the price and expect a rout!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays.

Two teams which won’t be in the playoffs collide on Friday night, but I think that Marcus Stroman and the Jays are worth the price of admission. Stroman (5-10, 3.25 ERA) enters off a strong start, giving up three runs while striking out seven over six innings vs. the Yankees on Sunday (note that Stroman’s been at his best on the road this year as well with a 2.94 ERA away from friendly confines thus far.) Detroit sees Jordan Zimmermann (0-6, 7.01) toe the slab and he most recently was shelled for seven runs off eight hits over four innings vs. the Royals on Sunday. Over his last two starts Zimmermann has allowed 14 earned runs spanning 7.1 innings of work. 

Key Trends:

- Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine American League road games as a favorite in the -135 to -155 range.

- Detroit is just 2-6 in its last eight home games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range.

The verdict: Stroman is still being shopped around and I expect him to keep his level of performance high; lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the over Red Sox/Orioles.

Two decent hurlers go head-to-head in this one, but I believe that runs will still be plentiful on Friday night. The visitors hand the ball to David Price (7-2, 3.16 ERA), while the home side counters with John Means (7-5, 2.94). Price has unquestionably been the most consistent starter in Boston’s rotation this year, but he most recently gave up four runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Sunday. Means enters off a poor start as well, allowing six runs off eight hits over six frames in a loss to the Rays last weekend. 

Key Trends:

- Boston has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 American League road games as a favorite in the -125 to -200 range.

- Baltimore has seen the total go over in eight of its last nine at home with a money line in the -175 to +175 range.

The verdict: Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that further regression in imminent in my opinion. Coupled with the above trends/numbers/stats and all signs do indeed point to the over as the correct call in this one!

Ricky’s 8* play on the UNDER Brewers/D-Backs.

Considering the talent on the mound tonight, I think this total is a little high. The visitors go with Zach Davies (7-2, 2.89 ERA), while the home side counters with Merrill Kelly (7-9, 3.93). Davies most recently allowed one run with five K’s over six innings in a win over the Giants on Saturday. Over 102 innings Davies now has a 2.89 ERA and 68:32 K:BB. Kelly gave up four runs (only one earned) while striking out five over five innings in a loss to the D-Backs on Saturday, undone by his defense. Overall Kelly has an 86:31 K:BB over 110 frames of work. 

Key Trends:

- Milwaukee has seen the total go under the number eight of its last 12 National League night road games in which the line is set between -125 and +125.

- Arizona has seen the total go under the total in seven of its last nine home games as a favorite in the -105 to -125 range.

The verdict: I expect these two starters to fight deep into the latter frames and as such, all signs doing indeed point to the under as the correct call in this one!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins.

The A’s Mike Fiers is 9-3 with a 3.61 ERA and he’s been a big reason why his team is doing so well right now. The Twins’ Kyle Gibson is 8-4 with a 4.03 ERA and he’s been a crucial part of his team’s success over the first half. In this particular matchup, i don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. Gibson gave up three runs over four innings in a no-decision in his last start vs. the Tribe. Overall though Gibson has been at his best at home this year by going 5-1 with a 3.69 ERA. Fiers went seven scoreless in a victory over the White Sox in his last start. Note that if Fiers has had one clear weakness this year, it’s been his play on the road where he’s a sub-par 3-4 with a 4.83 ERA. 

Key Trends:

- Oakland is just 4-6 in its last ten American League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the +115 to +135 range.

- Minnesota is 7-2 in Gibson’s last nine home games as a favorite in the -125 to -150 range.

The verdict: Look for Minnesota to ride Gibson to a solid win and lay this very reasonable price!