07-23-24 |
Angels v. Mariners UNDER 7 |
Top |
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (969) and the Seattle Mariners (970) listing both starting pitchers Jose Soriano and Logan Gilbert. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-57) has won two games in a row after their 3-1 come-from-behind victory on the road against the Mariners last night. Seattle (53-49) has lost six of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Angels have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last game. Additionally, Halos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. Soriano gets the start looking to replicate his last start which was against these Mariners back on July 13th when he allowed only one run and struck out five in six innings of work. That was an improvement from his first outing against them on May 31st when he gave up four runs in six innings. The rookie right-hander has the edge in this third matchup because of the not-so-dirty secret about this Seattle team: they can’t hit fastballs. The Mariners rank 28th in MLB by scoring only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game — and they have not scored more than three runs in five of their last six contests. They rank 28th and 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 28th and 24th in those categories since the beginning of the month. To compound matters, the Mariners will be without Julio Rodriguez again with him being placed on the injured list earlier today with a right ankle sprain. Soriano has an opposing hitter ground ball rate of 60.2% which is one of the highest marks in MLB. He issues too many walks but he should be confident that he can simply throw strikes tonight. He has a 5-7 record this season with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 17 games (15 starts). In his last five starts, he has demonstrated improvement by producing a 3.41 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He has been more effective away from home where he sports a 3.09 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in ten appearances as opposed to his 4.78 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in seven games at home. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after not scoring more than one run in their last game. The Mariners have also played 33 of their last 50 games Under the Total when playing at home including 13 of their last 19 contests at home at T-Mobile Park. Seattle has held nine of their last ten opponents to four runs or less — and they have a great chance to extend that streak with Gilbert on the hill. The right-hander has a 6-5 record along with a 2.79 ERA and a 0.87 WHI) in 20 starts. In his last eight starts since the beginning of June, he enjoys a 2.10 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP. That WHIP is no typo — in his last 55 2/3 innings of work, he has given only 33 base hits and issued a mere five bases-on-balls. He should pitch well against this Angels team that ranks 26th in MLB by scoring 4.1 Runs-Per-Game — and they have not scored more than three runs in five of their last six games. Los Angeles ranks 27th and 25th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they have dropped to 28th in both those categories this month.
FINAL TAKE: The Mariners have played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total against AL West rivals — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total against the Angels. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (969) and the Seattle Mariners (970) listing both starting pitchers Jose Soriano and Logan Gilbert. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-21-24 |
Red Sox v. Dodgers OVER 9 |
Top |
6-9 |
Win
|
102 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (979) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (980) listing both starting pitchers Kutter Crawford and James Paxton. THE SITUATION: Boston (53-44) has lost three of their last five games after their 7-6 loss on the road against the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (58-41) has won the first two games of this series after their on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring six or more runs in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total. Crawford gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 6-7 record along with his 3.04 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 19 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.69. Both his SIERA and xFIP that emphasize fielding independent data project his ERA to be at 3.85 and 4.06 moving forward. He faces this Dodgers lineup that ranks eighth and sixth in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning their previous game. They have played 5 of their last 7 games after allowing six or more runs in their last contest. The Dodgers have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home. They counter with Paxton who has a 7-2 record along with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 17 starts. The deeper numbers are screaming regression for this left-hander. His xERA sits at 4.83. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.54 and 5.37 respectively moving forward. The Regression Gods have already made their presence felt regarding Paxton since he has a 6.13 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in his last seven starts since June. The Red Sox rank 11th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: After last night, these two teams have played 6 of their last 7 games against each other Over the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (979) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (980) listing both starting pitchers Kutter Crawford and James Paxton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-24 |
Colombia v. Argentina UNDER 2 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
120 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235761) and Argentina (235762) in the finals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W4-D1-L0) reached the championship match in this tournament with their 1-0 victory against Uruguay on Wednesday. Argentina (W4-D1-L0) beat Canada by a 2-0 score to win their Semifinals match on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Colombia was down a man for the entire second half to Uruguay but they still held La Celeste to just 0.8 expected Goals (xG) in that match. Los Cafeteros have been outstanding on defense all tournament. They have only surrendered two goals in their five matches — and their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) is only 2.5 surfing that span. Colombia has scored 12 goals — but their xG drops to 8.5 in their five matches. They will not have right back Daniel Munoz after he was issued a second yellow card in the Uruguay match — and he plays a key role in their attack. Munoz is one of the most active players in their counter-attack in transition. He has also scored two of their 12 goals in this tournament. Argentina is winning low-scoring matches. They have only scored eight goals in their five matches. But the key for La Albiceleste since winning the 2022 World Cup has been the play of their defense. Argentina has conceded only one goal in this tournament. They have a 0.59 non-penalty kick xGA per 90 minutes in this event. They also play elite transition defense which is where Colombia is most dangerous.
FINAL TAKE: Championship matches tend to be cagey, lower-scoring affairs — and with the Copa America going straight to a penalty kick shootout after 90 minutes without a 30-minute extra-time period, both sides may be cautious late in the second half to take their chances in that season. These two teams last played in a World Cup qualifying match in February of 2022 which was a low-scoring contest that Argentina won by a 1-0 score. 25* Copa America Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235761) and Argentina (235762). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-10-24 |
England v. Netherlands UNDER 2 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between England (225597) and the Netherlands (225598) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2024. THE SITUATION: England (W2-D3-L0) advanced to the Semifinals of this tournament with their 5-3 victory in a penalty shootout against Switzerland after that match remained unresolved in a 1-1 score after 120 minutes last Saturday. The Netherlands (W3-D1-L1) reached the Semifinals with their 2-1 victory against Turkey in their Quarterfinals match on Saturday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at the Signal Iduna park in Dortmund, Germany.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England only managed 0.6 expected Goals (xG) against Switzerland which may be a surprise to those listening to Landon Donovan’s commentary of the match who lauded the Three Lions supposed new found aggressiveness despite their few shots on target. While less reliance on the aging Harry Kane was probably a step in the right direction, opponents are quickly double-teaming Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka when he gets the ball on the right wing. In hindsight, less reliance on Kane and more development of the attack around Saka, Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham, and Manchester City’s Phil Foden (who Pep Guardiola thought was the best player in the English Premier League) would probably be preferable tactics — but it is hard for these veteran national team managers to move off the reliable strikers on their squads given the limited training time they have. The dirty little secret regarding Southgate is that learned early on in his tenure as England’s national coach in 2016 that he could not trust the back line. His conservative tactics developed from that conclusion — he is content to win low-scoring affairs where perhaps his attacking talent can steal a game late. The Three Lions have not allowed more than one goal in any of their five matches in this event. They have surrendered only 3.59 expected Goals (xG) in regulation time in their five matches. England is particularly effective in defense in transition with their midfielders quickly rolling back and against set pieces. Those are areas where the Dutch score most of their goals. But the result of these conservative tactics is a lackluster attack. The Three Lions have scored one goal or less in four of their five matches in this tournament. Even worse, they have generated less than 1.0 xG in four of their five contests. They have only 3.8 xG in regulation time in their five matches at this tournament. Here comes the Netherlands who only managed 1.0 xG against a suspect Turkish defense that had surrendered at least 1.4 xG in their previous four matches. The Crescent-Stars are not a good defensive side — but they still frustrated the Dutch with their attempt to press. The Oranje have talent — but it may be the skill of their players that overcome the outdated tactical strategies of manager Ronald Koeman. After trailing by a 1-0 score, the Dutch rallied from a goal on a set piece before Turkey surrendered an own-goal in the 76th minute. The Netherlands have not generated more than 1.4 xG in three of their five matches. And it has been a relatively easy schedule for the Oranje. They scored two goals against Poland before getting blanked against France. They scored two goals in a loss against an aggressive Austria team before a dream Round of 16 draw against Romania which they beat, 3-0. The defense has been solid. Outside the match against the Austrians, they have had two clean sheets and held those two other opponents to just one goal.
FINAL TAKE: If styles make fights, these are two cautious teams who are loath to make mistakes now competing against a mirror image of themselves. Since their opening match against Portugal, the Netherlands have managed 0.6 xG or less in the first half of their last four matches. Both of these managers want this match to be the first one to score wins. And if this game gets tied at 1-1, we should survive regulation time (and settle for the push) with both managers contest for extra time where perhaps they can create Big Chance scoring opportunities. 25* Euro 2024 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between England (225597) and the Netherlands (225598). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-09-24 |
Canada v. Argentina UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Canada (235749) and Argentina (235750) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Canada (W1-D2-L1) advanced to the Semifinals of this tournament by beating Venezuela by a 4-3 mark on penalty kicks after a 1-1 result in regulation time on Friday. Argentina (W3-D1-L0) defeated Ecuador in a shootout by a 4-2 margin after a 1-1 score in regulation on Thursday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands in New Jersey.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Canada only generated 0.9 expected Goals (xG) against a Venezuela side that allowed 2.8 xG to a struggling Mexico team in the Group Stage of this tournament. Les Rouges have scored only two goals in their four matches at this event. And while they have generated 5.8 expected goals (xG), there are some good reasons to take that productivity with a grain of salt. They had a man-advantage after the 27th minute against Chile — yet they only produced 1.1 xG despite enjoying that advantage for 63 minutes. They also enjoyed a man-advantage for 31 minutes in their previous match against Peru — and it was only after then that they scored their lone goal in the 74th minute in their 1-0 victory. In their two friendlies since Jesse Marsh took over as manager, the Canucks did not score against the Netherlands and France. Canada competed in their first World Cup in 2022 but scored only two goals before being knocked out after the Group Stage. Marsch has his team relying on counter-attacking in transition after taking a defensive shape — and that makes sense with his talented midfielders in Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies and Lille’s Jonathan David. But Les Rouges will continue to be without Inter Milan midfielder Tajon Buchanan after he broke his tibia in training this week. Canada has been playing better and better defense. After a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s first match with the team, they have three clean sheets in their next five matches. Only Argentina and now Venezuela has scored on them in this tournament. They have given up only three goals in their last five matches — and they have conceded just once in their last three contests. Argentina took a 1-0 lead in the 36th minute against Ecuador last Thursday — but they only managed 0.8 xG against La Tri who had surrendered at least 1.0 xG in two of their three Group Stage matches. And when La Albiceleste conceded a goal in the first minute of stoppage time, it was the first goal scored against them in their four matches in this tournament. But since winning the 2022 World Cup, only three sides have generated at least 1.0 xG against them. These two teams faced off in their opening match in Group A play with Argentina winning by a 2-0 score. It was a high-event match with 29 combined shots by both teams. Canada did find success in frustrating La Albiceleste with their pressing in the mid-block which took away the middle for Argentina. After a scoreless first half, Argentina scored in the 49th minute which put Les Rouges in an urgent situation. La Albiceleste scored their second goal in the 88th minute.
FINAL TAKE: Canada scored a goal in the first half for the first time against Venezuela across all competitions in 2024. They have still not allowed a goal in the first half in their last eight matches. There is no 30-minute extra-time period in the Knockout Stage of the Copa America — tie scores are immediately resolved by the penalty kick shootout after 90 minutes. If things are deadlocked in the second half, then both sides may become committed to playing cautiously to take their chances in the shootout rather than risk surrendering a likely late winning goal. Canada manager Jesse Marsch would love to take his chances in a shootout. His team is playing better defensively than they were in their previous match against Argentina on June 20th. He may elect his team to play more cautiously this time around and bank on the speed of midfielders Alphonso Davies or Jonathan David getting scoring opportunities in transition. 25* Copa America Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Canada (235749) and Argentina (235750). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-24 |
Turkey v. Netherlands OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Turkey (225589) and the Netherlands (225590) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2024. THE SITUATION: Turkey (W3-D0-L1) reached the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 2-1 victory against Austria on Tuesday. The Netherlands (W2-D1-L1) advanced from the Round of 16 with a 3-0 victory against Romania on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at the Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: If styles dictate fights, the tactics of Turkish manager Vincenzo Mantella are instigating higher-scoring matches. The Crescent-Stars are playing on the front foot in this tournament — and it makes sense given the young talent at Mantella’s disposal. Two 19-year-olds, Real Madrid’s Arda Guler and Juventus’ Kenas Yildiz, played a significant role in their victory against Austria — and now they get their captain back after Inter Milan’s Hakan Calhanoglu was suspected for that match due to yellow cards. Turkey has scored seven goals in their four matches. Mantella unleashed Guler against the Austrians as he was given the freedom to roam and potentially attack when facing a press. But this young team has played loose when it comes to over-aggressiveness — and this has led to yellow cards and plenty of scoring chances for their opponents. The Crescent-Stars have been whistled for 18 yellow cards already which is the second most in the history of this event. They have also surrendered six goals — and their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) sits at 8.0. Austria generated 3.1 expected Goals (xG) against them — but not for the outstanding goalkeeping of Mert Gunok, Turkey gives up a few more goals in that match. The Crescent-Stars have allowed 1.4 xGA in each of their four matches — and that included a match with Czechia where they gave up 1.6 xGA despite having a man-advantage from a red card issues to the Czechs in the 20th minute. Mantella has proven himself a great tactician — so I expect Turkey to score. They build possession out of the back — and they are then willing to attack vertically with long balls over the top. But they are getting beaten by the opponent’s press — and their aggressiveness risks perhaps getting a man sent off or, even worse, penalty kicks. That might be a ticking time bomb for them. The Netherlands have scored seven goals in their four matches. Against Romania, they generated 50 touches inside the Romanian area which broke a national team record for them at this event. The Oranje have scoring talent — Atletico Madrid’s Memphis Depay, Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo, Borussia Dortmund’s Donyell Malek, and Liverpool center-back Virgil Van Dijk who can play up the pitch. The tactics of manager Ronald Koeman have been criticized as too passive and vanilla — but the individual talent on the pitch has still been able to shine (perhaps Koeman is crazy like a fox in this regard?). The Netherlands has a great chance to score multiple goals against this suspect Turkish backline. But they can get caught up in high-scoring affairs as evidenced by their 3-2 loss to the Austria team that the Crescent-Stars just beat.
FINAL TAKE: I’ll send out a second cliche — game scripts play a huge role regarding the over/under in international soccer, especially in the Knockout Stage. All four of Turkey’s matches have seen a goal scored in the first 30 minutes -- and in the Quarterfinals, and early goal places the losing side in an urgent situation. Each of the Crescent-Stars matches have seen at least 3.45 combined expected Goals. Expect another higher-scoring match with at least three scored in regulation time. 25* Euro 2024 Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Turkey (225589) and the Netherlands (225590). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-24 |
Canada v. Venezuela UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Canada (235737) and Venezuela (235738) in the Quarterfinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Canada (W1-D1-L1) claimed second place in Group A after their 0-0 draw with Chile on Saturday. Venezuela (W3-D0-L0) clinched first place in Group B with a 3-0 victory against Jamaica on Sunday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Canada has only scored one goal in this tournament. And while they have generated 4.1 expected goals (xG), there are some good reasons to take that productivity with a grain of salt. They had a man-advantage after the 27th minute against Chile — yet they only produced 1.1 xG despite enjoying that advantage for 63 minutes. They also enjoyed a man-advantage for 31 minutes in their previous match against Peru — and it was only after then that they scored their lone goal in the 74th minute in their 1-0 victory. In their two friendlies since Jesse Marsh took over as manager, the Canucks did not score against the Netherlands and France. Canada competed in their first World Cup in 2022 but scored only two goals before being knocked out after the Group Stage. Marsch has his team relying on counter-attacking in transition after taking a defensive shape — and that makes sense with his talented midfielders in Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies and Lille’s Jonathan David. But Les Rouges will miss Inter Milan midfielder Tajon Buchanan after he broke his tibia in training this week. Canada has been playing good defense. After a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s first match with the team, they have three clean sheets in their next four matches. Only Argentina has scored on them in this tournament. After that 2-0 loss, the Canucks have only given up 1.2 xG in their last two matches. Chile managed just 0.5 xG on Saturday. Venezuela scored three goals on 2.0 xG to complete their Group Stage — but that Reggae Boyz team was mentally checked after being eliminated from the Knockout Stage and playing for a lame-duck manager. They have scored six goals in this event — but two of those goals came with a man-advantage in the second half against Ecuador after getting that edge in the 22nd minute in the first half. La Vinotinto has only 4.8 xG relative to their six goals — and the context in two of their matches needs to be considered. They only had 1.2 xG when they played Mexico. But the defense has been solid — they have only conceded one goal in their last four matches across all competitions. They are getting outstanding goalkeeping from the veteran Rafael Romo who has only given up that one goal despite a 3.6 post-shot expected goals allowed projection. Venezuela is missing a key player as well — winger Darwin Machis who plays professionally for Capiz is suspended for this match after picking up a second yellow card against Jamaica last week.
FINAL TAKE: Canada has not scored a goal in the first half in 2024 across all competitions — but they have not allowed a goal in the first half in their last eight matches. There is no 30-minute extra-time period in the Knockout Stage of the Copa America — tie scores are immediately resolved by the penalty kick shootout after 90 minutes. If things are deadlocked in the second half, then both sides may become committed to playing cautiously to take their chances in the shootout rather than risk surrendering a likely late winning goal. 25* Copa America Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Canada (235737) and Venezuela (235738). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-24 |
Colombia v. Brazil UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235725) and Brazil (235726) in the Group Stage of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W2-D0-L0) clinched a spot in the Quarterfinals after their 3-0 victory against Costa Rica on Friday. Brazil (W1-D1-L0) won their first match in this event with a 4-1 victory against Paraguay on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is going to be a lower-scoring match with both sides resting or not risking a second yellow card in this contest. Colombia is already in with their two victories — and Brazil is all but in with only miraculous results from Costa Rica putting their second-place finish in Group D in doubt. The Selecao have a +3 net goal differential in their first two matches after settling for a 0-0 draw with Costa Rica in their opening match. Costa Rica now has a -3 net goal differential after their three-goal loss to Colombia — so they would have to overcome a six-goal deficit to Brazil in their potential victory against Paraguay. By the way, Paraguay is a -0.5 goal-line favorite in that match despite having lost their first two matches. Even if the Selecao were to lose tonight by a surprising 3-0 score, Costa Rica would still need to score at least three goals tonight. Costa Rica has registered a mere 0.1 expected goals in their two matches combined — and they have yet to register a shot on target in this tournament. Brazil manager Dorival Junior can rest easy. And he certainly does not want to risk Real Madrid star forward Vinicius Junior taking the pitch tonight since he risks a suspension for the Quarterfinals if he receives a second yellow card tonight. As it is, the Brazilian attack looked sluggish against Costa Rica in that scoreless match. They did get going against Paraguay finally after going scoreless in those first 30 minutes — but that may speak more to the quality of the Paraguayan defense. The good news for the Selecao is that their defense has been quite good in this tournament after some shaky results against Spain and Mexico in friendlies earlier this year. In their last friendly on June 12th against the United States, they held the Stars and Stripes to one goal. In their two Copa America matches, they have given up only 0.9 expected goals. Colombia is likely to rest players as well since little is at stake — so Liverpool striker Luis Diaz, forward Jhon Cordoba with a yellow card in hand, and attacking midfielder James Rodriguez who suffered a knock against Costa Rica are likely to play. Los Cafeteros have scored five times in this tournament — but their expected goals fall to 3.6 xG. Colombia is a strong defensive club that has conceded only one goal in this event — and their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) is only 0.9. They have not conceded a goal in six straight matches across all competitions since playing Mexico in a friendly on December 16th. They have not allowed more than one goal in five of those last six matches.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-event match between these two sides. There have been only four combined goals between these teams in their last three clashes. The last time these teams met, Colombia won by a 2-0 score on November 16th last year in a World Cup 2026 qualifying event where both teams were starting their A-teams — and that was a 1-0 game before Los Cafeteros scored twice in the final 15 minutes. In their two previous matches in the World Cup 2022 qualifiers, only one goal was scored. 25* Copa America Group D Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235725) and Brazil (235726). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-24-24 |
Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
6-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (913) and the Boston Red Sox (914) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Tanner Houck. THE SITUATION: Toronto (35-42) has lost six games in a row after their 6-5 loss at Cleveland yesterday. Boston (42-36) has won seven of their last eight games after their 7-4 victory at Cincinnati on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jays have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing four or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They have also played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. Bassitt gets the ball tonight with his 6-6 record along with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 15 starts. After struggling in April with opposing hitters posting a .327 batting average against him in six starts which resulted in a 5.33 ERA and a 1.89, he has been outstanding in his last nine starts. Since the beginning of May, Bassitt has a 2.33 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. The right-hander endured a slow start last season as well where he ended April with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP — and he ended the year with a 3.60 ERA along with a 1.18 WHIP. He held the Red Sox to just two earned runs in six innings in his last start. That game was played in Toronto where Bassitt has a 3.97 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .279 in eight starts — but those numbers drop to a 3.00 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .253 opponent’s batting average in his seven starts on the road. In his last three starts on the road over 18 innings, he has a 0.50 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with 19 strikeouts. The Blue Jays have played 12 of their last 18 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Boston has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. And while they have not committed a fielding error in two straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after two or more games in a row without an error. They turn to Houck tonight to build on his 7-5 record along with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics do not call for much regression either with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.04 and 2.93 moving forward — and those numbers will work! In his last four starts at home, he has a 2.17 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP — and he has not given up more than one earned run in three of those four appearances at Fenway Park.
FINAL TAKE: The Red Sox only score 4.3 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have played 17 of their last 22 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (913) and the Boston Red Sox (914) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Tanner Houck. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-24 |
Mets v. Cubs OVER 8 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Javier Assad. THE SITUATION: New York has lost two of their last three games after their 8-1 loss on the road against the Cubs yesterday. Chicago (37-40) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. New York continues their road trip tonight having played 22 of their last 32 games away from home Over the Total. They have also played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Severino gets the start looking to build on his 4-2 record along with a 3.52 era and a 1.20 whip in fourteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.54 and 4.33 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home as well where he enjoys a 2.47 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in eight starts — but in his six starts on the road, he has a 4.86 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237. Last season, Severino was saddled with an 8.14 ERA along with a 1.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .341 in eleven appearances with ten starts. The Mets have played 5 of Severino’s 6 road starts this season Over the Total. Despite their meager scoring numbers, the Cubs do rank 16th and 15th this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last game. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a win by six or more runs. They counter with Assad who has a 4-2 record along with a 2.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander is another prime regression candidate like Severino. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.07 and 4.04 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast that incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.07. Assad has not been as effective at home at Wrigley Field for the Cubs either in his career. In 113 2/3 innings, he has a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .254 as opposed to his 1.20 WHIP and .236 opponent’s batting average in 112 innings on the road. He faces a Mets lineup that ranks second and third in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank second in both those categories since May 1st.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one run. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Javier Assad. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-21-24 |
Panthers v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-5 |
Loss |
-101 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (21) and the Edmonton Oilers (22) in Game Six of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (67-29-8) had won six games in a row — but they have now dropped two games in a row after their 5-3 loss at home to the Oilers. Edmonton (63-35-7) can force a decisive Game Seven with a victory tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Florida has been anemic in even generating scoring chances in the power play in this series. The Panthers have scored only once in their 16 opportunities with a man advantage — and they have failed to score a goal in 19 of their last 20 power plays. But the Panthers' defensive-first approach has still been mostly effective. They have limited the Oilers to just 6.8 High Danger Chances and 17.6 Scoring Chances per game — and those numbers are actually lower than the 8.1 High Danger Chances and 18.0 Scoring Chances they are allowing in the postseason. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky gave up four goals in Game Five — but Florida did hold Edmonton to just 23 shots in that game. He went into that game with a 1.97 Goals-Against-Average and a .914 save percentage following a loss in these playoffs. If not for the short-handed goal by the Oilers early in the third period, Game Five might stay a lower-scoring contest. Instead, Edmonton took a 2-0 lead early in the second period and the game script changed with the Panthers trailing by multiple goals. Still, outside of the scoring fest in Game Four, Florida has only given up four goals at five-on-five in this series. And they have still stopped 18 of the 21 Oilers’ power plays. The Panthers have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a game at home where both teams scored three goals. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a game where eight or more goals were scored. Florida has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing four or more goals in two games in a row. They have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with two or more days of rest. Edmonton returns home where they generated 9.0 High Danger Chances and 24.0 Scoring Chances per Game — and those numbers were lower than the 13.1 High Danger Chances and 27.9 Scoring Chances per Game they averaged in the regular season. Goalie Stuart Skinner has gained confidence as this series has moved on — as he did against Dallas in the Western Conference Finals. He has stopped 52 of the last 56 shots he has faced in the last two games for a .929 save percentage. The Oilers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played 26 of their last 40 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by two more goals. Tonight’s game is just the fifth time all season that Edmonton has scored five or more goals in two straight games — and they have played 3 of those 4 previous games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road when playing with revenge. 25* NHL Friday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (21) and the Edmonton Oilers (22). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-24 |
Panthers v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-8 |
Loss |
-116 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (17) and the Edmonton Oilers (18) in Game Four of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (67-28-8) has won six games in a row after their 4-3 victory on the road against the Oilers on Thursday. Edmonton (61-35-7) trails by a 0-3 margin and looks to stave off Lord Stanley’s Cup being raised on their home ice tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky did give up two goals in the third period in Game Three — but the Panthers have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing two or more goals in the third period in their last game. Bobrovsky has been sensational in this series with a .953 save percentage and +4.53 Goals Saved Above Expectation. The Florida Power Play Kill Unit has also been elite as they have stopped all ten of the Oilers’ chances with the man advantage. The Panthers have stopped 90.2% of their opponent’s power plays in the postseason which is the second-best mark in the playoffs. Florida has played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a win by one goal — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road by just one goal. They have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after playing a game where seven or more combined goals were scored. In their last 11 games on the road with the total set at 5.5, they have played 7 of these games Under the Total. The Panthers have scored at least three goals in each of the games in this series — but they have then played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in three or more games in a row. The Oilers’ goaltender Stuart Skinner has struggled in this series — but Florida is also scoring on an unsustainable 15.7% of their shot attempts that reach the net. Edmonton is at its best when limiting shot attempts to help put Skinner in a better position to succeed. They only had four goals in the final three games of their series against Dallas to rally from a 2-1 deficit to take that series in six games. The Oilers had stopped 34 straight opponent power plays before the Panthers scored with the man advantage in Game Two — but they have still stopped eight of the nine opportunities with the man advantage for Florida in this series. They lead all playoff teams with an opponent Power Play Kill rate of 93.1% in the postseason. But Edmonton is struggling to score against the Panthers' physical style of play that emphasizes forechecking. The Oilers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring three goals or less in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have played 13 of their last 17 playoff games when leading in the series — and they have played 6 of their last 9 Game Fours in a series Under the Total. 25* NHL Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (17) and the Edmonton Oilers (18). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-14-24 |
Celtics v. Mavs UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
84-122 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (79-20) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this best-of-seven series with their 106-99 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on Wednesday. Dallas (62-40) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 205 combined points scored in Game Three were the most points scored in this series. The Celtics have not allowed the Mavericks to score more than 99 points in the first three games in this series. Boston’s diversity of defensive talent is making things very difficult on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Nothing is coming easy for Doncic who has been guarded primarily by Jaylen Brown or Derrick White — although Jrue Holiday and Jayson Tatum have both defended him at times. Head coach Joe Mazzulla has been comfortable not double-teaming him when he is coming off pick-and-rolls given the good defensive players he has on the court. Irving comes off his best game in the series by scoring 35 points, yet Holiday and White had been doing a great job slowing him down. He made only 35.1% of his shots in Games One and Two without a made 3-pointer. The Celtics are also doing a great job defending the perimeter and taking away 3-point shots. Dallas has not taken more than 27 shots from behind the arc which was in Game One — and critics were concerned even then since taking only 32.6% of their shots from 3-point range had been their lowest percentage in the playoffs. But then the Mavericks took 26 shots from behind the arc in Game Two before attempting 25 shots from 3-point land in Game 3. The Celtics are doing a particularly good job taking away corner 3s. After taking 13% of their shots from the plum corner spot behind the arc in the playoffs coming into this series, the Mavs have taken only 4.9% of their shots from the field from the corner 3 spot. Dallas has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in two straight games. They have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s — and they have played 37 of their last 53 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range including their last six games at home. The Mavericks have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boston has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. While the Celtics are playing great defense, they have not exploded on the other end of the court. Credit Dallas’ play on defense that has not given up more than 107 points in this series. The Mavericks did rank second in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline. Boston has won ten games in a row — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning seven or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total when avenging a loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-02-24 |
Stars v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (3) and the Edmonton Oilers (4) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (62-27-11) has lost the last two games of this series after their 3-1 loss at home to the Oilers on Friday. Edmonton (60-32-7) has won five of their last seven games to take a 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Stars have lost their scoring punch in these last two games. After generating 2.92 to 3.68 expected goals (xG) in Games One through Three, they only managed 1.95 xG in Game Four before registering just 1.95 xG in Game Five. They have only scored three combined goals in those two losses. Some of their key players are in slumps right now. Despite his hat trick in Game Three, Jason Robertson has not scored in his other last 13 games — and he has no points since scoring those three goals. Joe Pavelski and Matt Duchene have no points in this series as well. Dallas has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total on the road after a game where they did not score more than one goal — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after a loss on their home ice. They have played 20 of their last 26 games on the road after losing two or more games in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in two straight games. The Oiler's strategy of protecting their goalie Stuart Skinner with a smothering defense that is limiting shot attempts has stymied the Stars. They have not generated more than 22 shots in three straight games — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after playing three or more games where they did not put more than 24 shots on net. Edmonton has played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last two games. They have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one goal in their last game. Additionally, the Oilers have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by two or more goals. They have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Edmonton’s tactics have helped Skinner. In his last seven stars, he has a 1.92 Goals-Against-Average and a solid .908 save percentage.
FINAL TAKE: The Oilers have played 7 of their last 11 sixth games in a playoff series Under the Total — and the Stars have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total in Game Six of a playoff series. 25* NHL Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (3) and the Edmonton Oilers (4). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-01-24 |
Rangers v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (1) and the Florida Panthers (2) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: New York (65-28-4) finds themselves on the brink of elimination with two straight losses in this series after their 3-2 setback at home on Thursday. Florida (63-27-8) has won seven of their last ten games while taking a 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers are simply not generating enough offense in this series. They have not scored more than two goals in four of the five games in this series. They have generated only 23 shots in four of their last six contests. They had been surviving from their potent Power Play that scored on 26.4% of their opportunities in the regular season and in 40.0% of their chances with the man advantage in the first six games in the postseason. But in their last nine games, they have only scored twice in their last 24 Power Play chances for a woeful 8.3% success rate — and they are scoring only one of their 14 chances with the man advantage in this series. At five-on-five even strength in the playoffs, they rank only 12th of the 16 teams in expected Goals-For Percentage. One of the issues is that they simply do not have enough viable goal scorers. They have scored 11 goals in this series with just three players — Alexis Lafreniere, Barclay Woodrow, and Vincent Trocheck — accounting for nine of these goals. The Rangers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring two goals or less in their last game. And while they have surrendered at least three goals in their last three games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing three or more goals in three straight games. Don’t blame goalie Igor Shesterkin — he has a .934 save percentage in this series after stopping 34 of the 36 shots he faced on Thursday. He leads all postseason goaltenders this season with +12.2 Goals-Saved-Above-Expectation (GSAx). In the last two games, he has stopped 25 of the 28 High-Danger Chances from the Panthers. New York has played 18 of their last 25 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60-75%. Florida has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by just one goal. They have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after allowing two goals or less in their last two games. Additionally, they have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in three or more games in a row. The Panthers are dominating the shot attempts battle. They have outshot the Rangers by at least 10 shots in three straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outshooting their last three opponents by at least eight shots per game. They have generated at least 37 shots in those three games — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after attempting at least 33 shots in three or more games in a row. And despite the help their defense is providing in limiting shots, goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is playing well with a 2.06 Goals-Against-Average and a .913 save percentage in this series. He has not given up more than two goals in 12 of his 16 starts this postseason. The Panthers have played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Florida has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when leading a playoff series — and the Rangers have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Finals. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (1) and the Florida Panthers (2). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-01-24 |
Borussia Dortmund v. Real Madrid UNDER 3 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (224201) and Real Madrid (224202) in the UEFA Champions League Final. THE SITUATION: Borussia Dortmund reached the Champions League Final with their 2-0 aggregate victory against Paris Saint-Gemain last month. Real Madrid outlasted Manchester City with their 4-3 aggregate victory in the Semifinals. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Wembley Stadium in London, England.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tactics make fights -- and both of these sides prefer to play in a defensive midblock position. They both prefer to counter-attack against press-high opponents. Neither of these head coaches is going to be anxious to blink and embrace an attacking mode. Dortmund head coach Edin Terzic is content to park the bus with his ten players and lean on his outstanding goaltender Gregor Kobel. Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti will likely have his team attack -- but only cautiously to not give Dortmund counter-attack opportunities. Perhaps the talents of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, and Rodrygo up top can create scoring opportunities. But, part of Ancelotti's approach will be to goad Dortmund into a country attack -- from which they can perhaps counter with their Big Three getting better scoring chances with a better tactical advantage. This will be a cagey affair -- and I don't think the approach from either side changes if they give up the opening goal until late into the match. The tactical concern with getting aggressive immediately after surrendering a goal will be that it plays into the counter-attacking strength of their opponent. Both of these sides see their attack decline when playing away from home. Dortmund generated 2.45 expected Goals (xG) when playing at home in the Bundesliga -- but that mark dropped to 1.73 x when playing on the road. Real Madrid averaged 25.1 xG at home in La Liga -- but that clip dropped to 1.74 xG on the road in the Spanish top flight. Both teams also play good defense and could hang on to a 1-0 or 2-0 lead. Dortmund used these defensive tactics against PSG in the semifinals -- and they held them (and Kylian Mbappe) scoreless. In their 12 Champions League matches this season, they gave up only nine goals -- and they generated six clean sheets. In their six Knockout Stage matches, they conceded only five goals. eal Madrid led La Liga with an expected Goals Allowed age of 1.03 -- and in their last 20 matches since the beginning of January, their xGA dropped to 0.9 xGA. Los Blancos also has the veteran Thibault Courtois as their goalkeeper in this one -- not only is he one of the best in the world, he also made nine saves against Man City in a spectacular Champions League Final in 2022.
FINAL TAKE: Only six combined goals have been scored in the last five Champions League Finals -- and the last four have seen 1-0 final scores. In the last 16 UCL Finals, 11 of these matches finished Under 2.5 -- and 5 of the last 6 UCL Finals finished Unde 2.UCL Finals combined goals. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (224201) and Real Madrid (224202). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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05-31-24 |
Diamondbacks v. Mets UNDER 7 |
Top |
9-10 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Arizona (25-31) has lost four games in a row after their 3-2 loss on the road to the Mets in the opening game of this four-game series. New York (23-33) snapped their three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have only scored nine combined runs in their last six games — and they have not scored more than two runs in five of those contests. Arizona has played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total on the road after scoring two runs or less in two games in a row. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than three runs. Montgomery gets the ball looking to build on his 3-2 record along with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in seven starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.70 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .240 in three starts as opposed to his 6.44 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .329 in four starts at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent last year when he pitched for Texas and St. Louis. While Montgomery had a 3.61 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in his 17 starts at home for those clubs, he was better away from home where he posted a 2.73 ERA, a 1.1 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 15 starts on the road. He should pitch well against this Mets team that ranks 21st and 16th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. New York has scored eight combined runs in their last four games — and they have not scored more than three runs during that span. The Mets have played 29 of their last 44 home games Under the Total at home after a win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games at home after a victory by two runs or less. They are scoring only 3.2 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .204 batting average, a .276 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .603. They have played 20 of their last 31 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total at night. They counter with Severino who has a 2-2 record along with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 10 starts. The right-hand has been better at home where he owns a 2.00 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .188 in six starts as compared to his 5.16 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in four starts on the road. He faces a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 27th in MLB in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. They are only scoring 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed pitchers — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. In their last seven games, they are scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game with a .200 batting average, a .250 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .530.
FINAL TAKE: The Diamondbacks have played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range — and the Mets have played 35 of their last 49 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-24 |
Royals v. Twins UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
6-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (917) and the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Bailey Ober. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (34-22) has lost three games in a row after their 4-2 loss on the road against the Twins in the second game of this series. Minnesota (30-24) has won two straight games and six of their last seven contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Royals have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by two runs or less. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. They are scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .227 batting average, a .280 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .630. Lugo gets the start looking to continue his outstanding season — he has an 8-1 record with a 1.74 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 11 starts. In his last six starts, he sports a 1.52 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP across 41 1/3 innings with 47 strikeouts and just eight walks. I don't think this elite level of performance is sustainable -- but he will still be pitching well even if his ERA regresses to his expected ERA (xERA) of 3.74. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 0.75 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .145 in five starts as opposed to his 2.72 EA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .261 in six starts at home. His teams have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total with Lugo on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Minnesota has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row at home against AL Central rivals. They are scoring only 3.8 Rruns-Pe-Game at home with a .227 batting average along with a .289 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .689. They counter with Ober who will have revenge and redemption on his mind after the Royals rocked him for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his opening start of the season on Mach 31st. The right-hander has a 5-2 record with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 10 starts -- and he sports a 3.02 ERA in his last nine starts after that opening disaster. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging. His xERA from Statcast which incorporates exit velocities and hard-hit rates is 3.41. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.58 and 3.92 moving forward. Ober has pitched better at home where he has a 2.57 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .167 in four starts as opposed to his 5.52 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .252 in six starts on the road including his previous start against the Royals. The Twins have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total with Ober as their starting pitcher in the first half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams struggle against right-handed pitching. The Royals rank 29th in both weighted On-Base Average and weighed Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. The Twins rank 24th and 20th in weighted On-Base Aveeragee and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (917) and the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Bailey Ober. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
05-28-24 |
Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 212 |
Top |
105-100 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (64-32) has lost six of their last eight games after their 116-107 loss on the road against the Mavericks as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (61-36) has won five games in a row and seven of their last eight to take a 3-0 series lead. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks took Game Three despite allowing the Timberwolves to make 50.6% which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 contests. But they also nailed 55.9% of their shots which was their best shooting performance in their last 44 games. Dallas has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where they shot 55% or more of their shots. The Mavs are due a visit from the Regression Gods regarding their shooting in this series. While they are making 58.1% of their shots, their expected field goal percentage which measures their shot location relative to league shooting averages is just 53.0%. The Mavericks have played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total after winning on their home court in their last game. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning five or more games in a row -- and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total at home after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Furthermore, they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s -- and they have played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. They have also played 33 of their last 50 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Minnesota played their worst defensive game in their last six contests by allowing the Mavericks to make 55.9%. of their shots. They did nail 50.6% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting performance in their last nine contests. The Timberwolves have not covered the point spread in this series -- and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. All three games in this series have finished Over the Total -- and Minnesota has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series. FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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05-27-24 |
Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 223 |
Top |
105-102 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (505) and the Indiana Pacers (506) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (75-20) has won six games in a row after their 114-111 victory on the road as a 7-point road favorite on Saturday. Indiana (55-44) has lost four of their last six games while dropping the first three games in this series. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This decision is largely a contrarian reaction to the fact that both of these teams have played five straight Overs coming into this Game Four. But there is more. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported at 5 PM ET that he thinks that it is “unlikely” that Tyrese Haliburton will attempt to play tonight with him being listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. While Haliburton wants to play, management sees the big picture with their franchise player and will unlikely want to risk a more serious injury with this series all but decided. We were on the Pacers in Game Three despite not having Haliburton play. They made 50.5% of their shots and built a 15-point lead. They had an eight-point lead late in the game — but they managed to blow that advantage to lose for the third straight time in this series. Losing their best player is bad enough, but the other resulting concern is that Indiana’s shot profile is simply unsustainable to score 111 points (even when playing at a fast tempo). Haliburton plays a critical role in the spacing in their half-court offense for their 3-point shooting. They only made 4 of 20 shots from behind the arc on Friday — not only is a 20% clip not going to get it done, but neither is taking only 21% of their shots from the field from 3-point range in 2024. The Pacers took 46% of their shots from midrange — and only 32% of their shots came at the rim. Overall, the Pacers only took 54% of their shots either at the rim or behind the 3-point line. They stayed competitive in the game because they shot 59.2% inside the arc — but that is simply not sustainable especially when not attacking the rim. Boston has arguably been outplayed in two of three games in this series. They need to use this game to play harder on defense. Indiana has shot at least 50.5% from the field in each game in this series. The Celtics have allowed four straight opponents to shoot 48.1% from the field — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing four or more straight opponents to make at least 47.5% from the field. Boston has played five straight Overs — but they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing five or more Overs in a row. They have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread loss. FINAL TAKE: The Celtics are outscoring their opponents by +11.1 Points-Per-Game this season — and that helps trigger an empirical angle supporting the Under that has been 76% effective. In games with the Total set at 220 or higher, when a team is outscoring their opponents by at least +6 PPG and has played five or more Overs in a row, that game finished Under the Total in 32 of these last 42 situations. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (505) and the Indiana Pacers (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-19-24 |
Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
130-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
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At 3:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (541) and the New York Knicks (542) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (54-41) forced this Game Seven with their 116-103 victory as a 5-point favorite at home on Friday. New York (57-37) has lost three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers have played 17 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread victory. They have played 12 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after a win at home by 10 or more points. Now they go back on the road where they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200s. Additionally, the Pacers have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total in a road game in the playoffs where they could potentially close out the series. New York has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points on the road. The Knicks return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home when playing with revenge from a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by double-digits. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (541) and the New York Knicks (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-18-24 |
Canucks v. Oilers UNDER 6 |
Top |
1-5 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vancouver Canucks (25) and the Edmonton Oilers (26) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Vancouver (51-26-10) has won two of the last three games to take a 3-2 series lead. Edmonton (55-30-7) returns home looking to stave off elimination and force a Game Seven. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is becoming a defensive series with each of the last two games only seeing five combined goals scored. Vancouver goaltender Arturs Silovs has not allowed more than three goals in the last three games in this series as he gets more comfortable between the pipes for this team playing for the injured Thatcher Demko and Casey DeSmith. He has a .918 save percentage in the last three games in this series. The Canucks are doing a good job of limiting the scoring chances of the Oilers. They rank second of the seven remaining NHL teams in the playoffs in High Danger Chances allowed. Vancouver has played 37 of their last 58 road games Under the Total after a win by just one goal. Edmonton has played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total this season when following a loss on the road by just one goal. The Oilers have also played 26 of their last 45 games Under the Total following an Under in their last game. Stuart Skinner returns as Edmonton’s starting goaltender after getting benched in Game Three. He has struggled — but getting the time off should help his physical and mental state. He did play better at home in the regular season where he enjoyed a 2.49 Goals-Against-Average and a .913 save percentage in 32 starts. FINAL TAKE: The Oilers have played 8 of their last 13 games in the playoffs Under the Total when trailing in the series — and the Canucks have played 4 of their last 6 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vancouver Canucks (25) and the Edmonton Oilers (26). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-18-24 |
Thunder v. Mavs UNDER 209.5 |
Top |
116-117 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (531) and the Dallas Mavericks (532) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (63-28) has lost three of their last four games after their 104-92 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Dallas (57-36) can close things out tonight given their 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder allowed the Mavericks to make 52.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 13 games. Oklahoma City ranked fourth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the regular season — and they have still held five of their last seven opponents to no higher than 42.9% shooting. The Thunder have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Oklahoma City goes back on the road where they rank just 11th of the 16 teams that made the playoffs with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number of 103.6. They are making only 32.7% of their shots from behind the arc against the Mavericks in this series. The Thunder have played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Dallas enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last six games by making 52.6% of their shots. The Mavericks have played 34 of their last 65 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset victory. Dallas has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 105 points. The Mavs have won five of their last seven games — and they have played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven contests. They have also covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they rank only 10th of the 16 playoff teams in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this postseason. Dallas has played 12 of their last 18 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with revenge on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Yea with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (531) and the Dallas Mavericks (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-15-24 |
Avalanche v. Stars UNDER 6.5 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-124 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (9) and the Dallas Stars (10) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Colorado (55-29-7) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 5-1 loss at home to the Stars on Monday. Dallas (59-24-10) has won seven of their last nine games while taking a 3-1 series lead. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Avalanche got shellshocked an hour before the puck dropped on Monday with the news that Vareri Nichushkin got suspended for six months for what appears to be another substance abuse violation for the troubled Russian. He was leading the team with nine goals in the postseason. He missed time for some sketchiness in last year’s playoffs — and this may be the final straw for him with the organization. But his absence leaves Colorado without their fourth-leading scorer in the regular season. The Avalanche was also without top blue-line defenseman Devon Toews who was ill and missed Game Four — he should be back on the ice tonight. Colorado has scored only one goal in each of their last two games — and their recipe for success is likely to be more defensive-minded to protect their embattled goaltender Alexandar Georgiev after giving up nine combined goals in their last two games. The Avalanche have surrendered at least three goals in five straight games — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after allowing three or more goals in five or more games in a row. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row by two or more goals. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row at home. Colorado has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. Dallas has not given up more than two goals in seven of their last nine games. They are getting outstanding goaltending from Jake Oettinger who has a .923 save percentage in 11 postseason games — and he has registered +4.8 Goals Saved Above Expectation in those games. The Stars have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row by more than one goal. Dallas has scored at least four in each of their last three victories which have all been by multiple goals — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring four or more goals in three or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Stars have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning on the road by two or more goals — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two or more games on the road by more than one goal. FINAL TAKE: The Avalanche have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (9) and the Dallas Stars (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-13-24 |
Hurricanes v. Rangers OVER 5.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-101 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (1) and the New York Rangers (2) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (57-24-10) staved off elimination on Saturday with their 4-3 victory at home against the Rangers. New York (61-25-4) had won nine games in a row — and they can end this series tonight given their 3-1 series lead. REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Hurricanes have allowed at least three goals in six straight games — but they registered their first power-play goal in this series in the third period when Brady Skejc beat the Rangers’ goaltender Igor Shesterkin to win this game and extend their season. Carolina has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning their previous game. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing three or more goals in two or more games in a row. They have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games Over the Total when facing potential elimination. Frederick Andersen will likely get the nod in goal for the Hurricanes again tonight. After stopping only 22 of the 25 shots he faced on Saturday, he has just a .874 save percentage in this series. In the regular season, he was much better at home where he enjoyed a 1.39 Goals-Against-Average and a .946 save percentage in ten starts. What makes this start ominous for the struggling goaltender is that he had a 2.72 GAA and a .906 save percentage in six starts on the road in the regular season — and he has a .871 save percentage in his two previous games at Madison Square Garden in this series after allowing four goals in both Games One and Two. The Hurricanes have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 51 of their last 82 road games Over the Total after a win at home against a Metropolitan Division rival. New York has scored at least three goals in ten straight games. The Rangers have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring three or more goals in five or more games in a row — and they have played 14 of their last 21 home games Over the Total after scoring three or more goals in two or more games in a row. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by just one goal — and they have played 26 of their last 34 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Additionally, New York has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing on the road in a game where both teams scored three or more goals. They return home to MSG where they are averaging 3.5 Goals-Per-Game — and they scored four goals apiece in Games One and Two (as mentioned above). The Rangers have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 5.5 or higher. Igor Shesterkin has been great in the playoffs — but his home/road splits have been consistent this season. He had a 2.51 GAA and a .912 save percentage at home in the regular season — and those numbers are in the same range as his 2.66 GAA and .913 save percentage on the road. FINAL TAKE: New York has played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up four or more goals. The Rangers have also played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total when they potentially could close out the series — and the Hurricanes have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games Over the Total when attempting to avoid elimination. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (1) and the New York Rangers (2). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-12-24 |
Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 204.5 |
Top |
115-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (512) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (62-28) won their first game in this series with their 117-90 victory as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday. Minnesota (62-27) had won six games in a row before that loss — they hold a 2-1 lead in this series. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets enjoyed their best overall shooting game in over a month. Their 53.7% shooting percentage from the field was their best mark in their last ten games. They made 14 of their 28 shots (50%) from behind the arc. They scored at a 112.4 points per 100 possession rate in the half-court which was their most efficient clip in the postseason by 11 points. They scored 37 points in the third quarter alone. Head coach Michael Malone made two key adjustments to unlock the offense: (1) he had Nikola Jokic or Aaron Gordon dribble the ball up the court to ask less of Jamal Murray and (2) he emphasized getting the ball across mid-court in two to three seconds to quicker get into their half-court offense. It worked — but now the onus is on the Timberwolves’ head coach Chris Finch and his coaching staff to determine their counter move with the two days of preparation. Furthermore, the ongoing concern for this team is their lack of depth combined with their lingering injury situation. Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Reggie Jackson are all questionable with injuries -- and even if they play, their continuing effectiveness will be a concern. Denver also increased their intensity on defense. The biggest tactical change was that Jokic was less concerned with defending the paint to instead use his length to disrupt things on the perimeter. The Timberwolves only made 10 of their 33 shots (30%) from behind the arc despite attempting 45% of their shots from 3-point range. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win on the road against an Atlantic Division rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road by double-digits. Additionally, they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. And in their last 13 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Denver has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Minnesota will not be as sluggish as they were in Game Three — but they ranked a mediocre 12th in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the half-court. Jokic daring Karl-Anthony Towns to attack the glass may be worth the risk since KAT so often becomes passive and settles for outside shots. Towns only scored 14 points on a mere seven shots from the field on Friday. The T-Wolves should play much better on defense after allowing the Nuggets to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home to a Northwest Division rival. And while Game Three finished Under the Total, the Timberwolves have played 30 of their last 43 home games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-05-24 |
Golden Knights v. Stars UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (25) and the Dallas Stars (26) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Vegas (48-31-9) forced a decisive Game Seven with their 2-0 victory at home against the Stars on Friday. Dallas (55-24-9) had won three games in a row in this series before that setback. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Knights staved off elimination — but they are still struggling to score goals, especially at even strength five-on-five. While Noah Hanifan broke up a scoreless game at the 9:56 minute mark of the third period, the final goal was an empty netter from Mark Stone with 19 seconds left in the game. Vegas has only scored two goals in each of their last four games. The Golden Knights have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring two goals or less in two or more games in a row. But they did get great goaltending from Adin Hill who stopped all 23 shots he faced on Friday. Since taking over between the pipes in Game Five, Hill has a 1.52 Goals-Against-Average along with a .938 save percentage. His 6’6” frame makes him an imposing presence in front of the net. Going back to the Vegas championship run last year, Hill has a 2.09 GAA and a .933 save percentage in 18 games (16 starts). He has three shutouts in the postseason after Game Six — and his two other shutouts were against this Stars team in their playoff series last year. The Golden Knights have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one goal in their last game — and they have played 15 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after a shutout victory. Furthermore, Vegas has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5. Dallas has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after getting shutout in their last game. They have also played 4 of their 6 games Under the Total this season after a loss on the road by two or more goals. They have still won 15 of their last 20 games — and they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning 15 or more games in their last 20 contests. Don’t blame Jake Oettinger for the Game Six loss since he stopped 28 of the 29 shots he faced. After an inconsistent regular season, Oettinger has been great in this series — he has a 2.10 GAA and a .921 save percentage in the first six games with a +2.0 Goals-Saved-Above-Expectation mark. This will be his third start in a Game Seven — he posted a 1.78 GAA and a .956 save percentage in those prior two games. The Stars have played 3 of their 4 games at home this season Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5. They have also played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total in potential closeout situations. FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total. Dallas has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when avenging a shutout loss to their opponent. 25* NHL TBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (25) and the Dallas Stars (26). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-05-24 |
Magic v. Cavs UNDER 196 |
Top |
94-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (545) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (546) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Orlando (50-38) forced a decisive Game Seven in this series with their 103-96 victory at home against the Cavaliers as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Cleveland (51-37) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic took Game Six despite allowing the Cavaliers to make 48.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Orlando finished the regular season ranked third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In this series, they have held Cleveland to just 44.0% shooting which has resulted in only 94.2 Points-Per-Game. But the Magic are only making 43.4% of their shots in this series resulting in just 101.3 PPG themselves. Their shooting has been worse on the road where they have only made 38.1% of their shots including 25.2% of their 3s in their three games in Cleveland in this series. The Magic are scoring just 90.7 PPG in those three games while scoring more than 86 points only once. Orlando has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while the Magic have eight fewer personal fouls in each of the last two games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after committing at least five fewer personal fouls than their opponent in two straight games. Cleveland enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last seven games by making 48.8% of their shots on Friday. But the Cavaliers have not scored more than 104 points in this series — and they have not scored more than 97 points in five of the six games. Cleveland has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 105 points in three or more games in a row. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where neither team scored more than 105 points. The foul situation in the last two games has helped Orlando take 16 and 10 more shots at the free throw line as well — and the Cavaliers have played 24 of their last 34 home games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where they took at least 10 fewer shots at the charity stripe.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (545) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-04-24 |
Maple Leafs v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (13) and the Boston Bruins (14) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (48-30-10) has won three of the last four games in this series after their 2-1 victory at home on Thursday. Boston (50-23-15) has lost the last two games of this series after taking a 3-1 lead after Game Four. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Maple Leafs have survived because of great goaltending from Joseph Woll. Since taking over last in Game Four, he has stopped 54 of the 56 shots he has faced for a .964 save percentage. In his seven career games in the playoffs, Woll has a 1.78 Goals-Against-Average and a .933 save percentage. But Toronto’s scoring attack is still missing-in-action. They have only scored seven combined goals in their last four games — and they have not scored more than two goals in any of those games. Auston Matthews has not scored since Game Two as he battles an illness. While he should play tonight, he is not close to 100%. The Maple Leafs have scored only one time from their 20 power play opportunities in this series. Toronto has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in three straight games. They have played 23 of their last 38 games Under the Total after their last game finished Under the Total. Additionally, they have played 22 of their last 33 road games Under the Total after playing an Atlantic Division rival in their previous game — and they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after playing a divisional rival three times in a row. Boston is struggling to score as well — they have only two combined goals in their last two games. The prospect of blowing another 3-1 series lead seems to have impacted this team because they looked tight and skittish on the ice in the last two games. The Bruins blew a 3-1 series lead in the first round last year against Florida. David Pastrnak scored 47 goals and added 63 assists in the regular season — but he has only two goals and two assists in this series. Boston is also getting great goaltending from Jeremy Swayman who has a 1.60 GAA and a .947 save percentage in his five starts. The Bruins have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal to an Atlantic Division rival. They have also played 26 of their last 43 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in five days. FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. 25* NHL 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (13) and the Boston Bruins (14). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-03-24 |
Stars v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (3) and the Vegas Golden Knights (4) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (55-23-9) has won three straight games in this series after their 3-2 victory at home against the Golden Knights on Wednesday. Vegas (47-31-9) looks to avoid elimination tonight trailing 3-2 in this series after winning Games One and Two.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Knights scoring attack has been stymied by the stout Stars defense. They have scored two goals in each of their last three games. Six of their 13 goals have been on the Power Play — there seven goals at even strength five-on-five are the second fewest in the postseason. Vegas is simply finding it difficult to find open spaces to then generate good shots on the Stars’ goaltender Jake Oettinger. The deeper metrics are ugly. The Golden Knights rank 15th of the 16 playoff teams in expected Goals-For (xGF). They are averaging only 6.6 High Danger Chances per game. They are only converting on 6.2% of their shot attempts. The Golden Knights have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in two straight games. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing on the road by just one goal in their last game. They return home to T-Mobile Arena where they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total following a game on the road. Vegas did get a good game from Adin Hill between the pipes — he stopped 22 of the 25 shots he faced on Wednesday. He replaced Logan Thompson who was playing fine in this series — especially in Game Three where he almost stole the game single-handedly for the Golden Knights. Head coach Bruce Cassidy commented that he made the change to Hill because of his experience in high-pressure playoff games from the previous Stanley Cup title last year when he was their goaltender. In his 17 career games (15 starts) in the playoffs, Hill has a 2.22 Goals-Against-Average and a .930 save percentage. Dallas has only three goals in each of their three straight victories -- and they have then played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in two or more games in a row. They have won 15 of their last 19 games — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning 15 or more games in their last 20 games. Goalie Jake Oettinger has been outstanding in this series. He stopped 23 of the 25 shots he faced on Wednesday. For the series, he has a 2.31 GAA and a .911 save percentage — and he has been at his best after giving up four goals on 15 shots in Game One. In his last three games, Oettinger has stopped 112 of the 120 shots he has faced for a .933 save percentage. He has also been great in clutch time in this series — he has stopped all 56 shots he has faced in the third period and overtime.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 3 of their last 4 playoff games Under the Total in potential close-out games. Vegas has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range. 25* NHL 1st Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (3) and the Vegas Golden Knights (4). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-03-24 |
Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 209 |
Top |
101-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 50 m |
Show
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At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (527) and the Dallas Mavericks (528) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-34) has lost six of their last eight games after their 123-93 loss at home to the Mavericks on Wednesday. Dallas (53-34) has a 3-2 series lead with the chance to close out the series tonight. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers allowed the Mavericks to make 54.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 16 contests. They miss Kawhi Leonard who remains an outstanding defender — but head coach Ty Lue will demand a better effort from his players on that end of the court. Leonard will miss tonight’s game as well as he, as always, manages his knee problem — and the Clippers also miss his scoring. Los Angeles has not scored more than 93 points in three of the last four games in this series. The Clippers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a loss by 15 or more points. They have also played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 4 straight Unders after losing six or seven of their last eight games. They have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in five days. And in their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Los Angeles has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Dallas enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last nine games by nailing 54.0% of their shots. The Mavs should continue to be tough to score on in this series. The additions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the trade deadline transformed the defensive makeup of this team. Since February 5th, they ranked third in the NBA in opponent’s effective field goal percentage after previously ranking 26th in the league. And in their last 15 games in the regular season, they led the NBA by holding their opponents to 106.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions. Dallas has played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a win on the road by 10 or more points. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by 30 or more points. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games at home Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when on the road playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (527) and the Dallas Mavericks (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-02-24 |
Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 202.5 |
Top |
118-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
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At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (511) and the Philadelphia 76ers (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (53-34) has lost two of the last three games in this series after their 112-106 upset loss in overtime at home to the 76ers as a 4-point underdog on Tuesday. Philadelphia (50-38) still trails by a 3-2 margin in this series. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It took overtime for Game Five to finish Over the Total — that game was tied at 97 at the end of regulation. The Knicks made 46.5% of their shots which was their second-best shooting effort in this series. But New York’s 3-point shooting has collapsed. After only making 7 of their 27 shots from behind the arc, they shot just 10 of their 36 shots from 3-point range on Tuesday — that’s a 27.0% shooting percentage from 3-point land in their last two games. The Knicks have not shot better than 43% in three of the five games in this series. But they are playing tough defense led by O.G. Anunoby and Isaiah Hartenstein. They are holding the Sixers to a low 54.8% shooting percentage at the rim. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss at home. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Philadelphia only made 48.1% of their shots at the rim on Tuesday. And despite them making 15 of their 39 shots (38.5%) from behind the arc, they only scored at a 110.9 points per 100 possession rate. For comparison's sake, the 76ers scored at a 116.3 points per 100 adjusted possession rate in the regular season — and their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in Game Five would rank 26th in the league if extended for the entire season. Joel Embiid deserves credit for taking the court — but he is so banged up with several maladies including his chronic left knee and now Bell's palsy. He needs rest — and he simply is not in the physical state to take his game down low. Instead, he is trying to survive out on the perimeter — but in his last two games, he is making only 36.8% of his shots including just a 20% shooting mark from behind the arc. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Sixers have also played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set from 200 to 209.5. FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 7 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-pint range. The Knicks have played 13 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (511) and the Philadelphia 76ers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-29-24 |
Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 219 |
Top |
106-108 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 23 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (561) and the Denver Nuggets (562) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-38) avoided the sweep and snapped an 11-game losing streak to the Nuggets with a 119-108 upset victory at home as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Denver (60-26) had won four games in a row before that loss. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets may be without Jamal Murray tonight who is questionable with a calf injury. Murray scored 21.2 Points-Per-Game in the regular season while dishing out 6.5 Assists-Per-Game — and he is one of their best deep threats by making 42.5% of his 3s. Reggie Jackson will take his likely take his place in the starting lineup — but he is banged up with an ankle injury and has been battling an illness for more than a week. Denver needs to tighten things up on defense after allowing the Lakers to make 52.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Nuggets have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They return home where they have played 9 straight Unders against teams from the Pacific Division opponents. They have also played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Los Angeles enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last five contests by making 52.2% of their shots. They got 22 points from D’Angelo Russell — but his scoring remains erratic after he put up a doughnut in Game Three. The Lakers have played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total after an upset win by double-digits. Los Angeles goes back on the road where they scored only 103 and 99 points in the opening two games of this series. They did hold the Nuggets to just 107.5 PPG in those contests. The Lakers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road against teams with a winning record. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first round of the playoffs. FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 27 of their last 45 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 6 potential close-out games in the playoffs. 25* NBA Playoff Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (561) and the Denver Nuggets (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-28-24 |
Bucks v. Pacers UNDER 217 |
Top |
113-126 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (553) and the Indiana Pacers (553) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (50-35) lost for the fourth time in their last five games in a 121-118 loss in overtime as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Indiana (49-37) has won six of their last eight games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks will likely be without Damian Lillard tonight after he first twisted his ankle in Game Three before later wrenching his Achilles in the fourth quarter. While Lillard declared that he expected to play after the game, he was in a walking boot yesterday and was listed as doubtful. Milwaukee probably does not want to risk Lillard aggravating that injury the way Golden State did with Kevin Durant a few years ago. The team is already without Giannis Antetokounmpo who is doubtful to return from his calf injury. Even if one (or both) of these players take the court, neither is likely to be close to 100%. Khris Middleton stepped up with 42 points on Friday — but now he is being asked to carry the team on offense which is not his strength. Lillard scored 28 points in Game Three. With Lillard out, head coach Doc Rivers will likely turn to Malik Beasley who is an improvement on the defensive end of the court. Beasley’s size makes him an interesting choice to defend Tyrese Haliburton — and that would allow for their top defender Patrick Beverley to clamp down on Andrew Nembhard. One thing that seems certain is that Rivers will continue to do everything he can to get this game into “mud” as he declared before the series started. After the 97 mutual possessions (adjusted possessions per 48 minutes) in Game One, there were 92.5 possessions in Game Two before just the 89.2 adjusted possession rate in Game Three which includes the pace in overtime. That game went into overtime with the score tied at 111 — helped by Lillard’s 28 points. The Bucks have played 29 of their last 44 games Under the Total on the road after a point-spread loss. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Indiana only made 13 of their 49 shots from behind the arc for a 27% shooting percentage. Tyrese Halliburton does not appear to be at 100% as he recovers from the injuries that slowed him down during the regular season — he missed 11 of his 12 shots from downtown. The Pacers' bench scoring production is down as well. After leading the NBA by getting 46.8 Points-Per-Game from their bench in the regular season, the second unit is only scoring 23.3 PPG in this series, down -23.5 PPG. Indiana has played 4 of their 6 games this season Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 42 of their last 63 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And in their last 8 games when playing for no more than the fifth time in 14 days, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total. FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging a loss of three points or less — and they have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing with double revenge including six of those last nine circumstances. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (553) and the Indiana Pacers (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-23-24 |
Predators v. Canucks OVER 5.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (77) and the Vancouver Canucks (78) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Nashville (47-31-5) has lost two games in a row after dropping Game One of this series by a 4-2 score on Sunday. Vancouver (51-23-9) has won three of their last four games. REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Predators continue to struggle in slowing down their opponents’ scoring attack as they have conceded at least four goals in three straight games. Goalie Juuse Saros is in a slump after allowing three or more goals in three of his last four starts. In his final six starts in the regular season this month, he was saddled with a 3.18 Goals-Against-Average with a .904 save percentage. Nashville has played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total after allowing four or more goals in three or more games in a row. The Predators have also played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a loss by more than one goal. And while they ended the regular season with a 4-2 loss at Pittsburgh, Nashville has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row by more than one goal. This is their fifth game in the last two weeks — and they have played 6 straight Overs on the road when playing for no more than the fifth time in 14 days — and they have played 24 of their last 37 road games Over the Total with the Total set at 5.5. Vancouver has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 29 of their last 46 games Over the Total after a win by more than one goal. They have played 24 of their last 39 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. First-string goaltender Thatcher Demko remains out with an undisclosed injury. Casey DeSmith is between the pipes for the Canucks tonight — but he had a meager 3.14 GAA and a .877 save percentage in his last 14 games in the regular season after the All-Star break. Vancouver has played 3 of their last 4 games at home Over the Total. FINAL TAKE: The Predators have lost five straight games to the Canucks with Vancouver scoring at least four goals in three straight games against them. Nashville has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with at least double-revenge against their opponent while giving up at least three goals in both losses — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NHL Western Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (77) and the Vancouver Canucks (78). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-20-24 |
Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 |
Top |
103-114 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 16 m |
Show
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At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (575) and the Denver Nuggets (576) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-35) has won three games in a row as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 110-106 upset victory at New Orleans as a 1-point underdog in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday. Denver (57-25) won four of their last five games to close out the regular season with a 126-111 victory at Memphis as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers may be rusty with the three full days off since their game against the Pelicans — and they only made 41.7% of their shots in that game. But LeBron James and Anthony Davis should have fresh legs which will help them on the defensive end of the court. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. They stay on the road for the fourth straight game where they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their two previous games on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Denver comes into the postseason to defend their NBA title on a hot streak regarding their shooting. The Nuggets have shot at least 50.5% from the field in their last three games — and they have played five straight games where they nailed at least 48.9% of their shots. But Denver has then played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in three straight games. They have also played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after making 47% or more of their shots in five straight contests. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a victory by 15 or more points. This will be the fifth game this season that Denver will be playing with three or more days of rest after their last contest — and they have played 3 of those first 4 games Under the Total. After playing their last two games on the road, the Nuggets return home — and they have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing their two previous games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has won the last eight meetings between these two teams after the Nuggets’ 124-114 victory as a 1-point favorite in Los Angeles on March 2nd. The Lakers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge against their opponent. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (575) and the Denver Nuggets (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-19-24 |
Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 211 |
Top |
98-105 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 12 m |
Show
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At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (557) and the New Orleans Pelicans (558) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Sacramento (47-36) has won two games in a row after their 118-94 upset victory at home against Golden State as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday to advance to this final Play-In Tournament game. New Orleans (49-34) has lost two games in a row after their 110-106 upset loss at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 1-point favorite in their Play-In game on Tuesday. The winner of this game takes the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs and plays at Minnesota on Sunday; the loser’s season ends. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings scored at least 110 points for just the fourth time in their last 15 games on Tuesday. After posting historic efficiency numbers on offense last season, Sacramento is a different team right now after the injuries to Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter. Monk is the team’s third-leader scoring and offensive spark plug coming off the bench. Huerter is their best 3-point shooter who opens up space in the starting five for De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. But head coach Mike Brown has his team playing much better on the defensive end of the court — and they are also playing at a slower pace to compensate for their now very thin bench. For the season, the Kings rank 14th in the league by averaging 99.47 adjusted possessions per game — with Huerter missing the last 17 games and Monk out the last 11 contests. In their last 10 games, Sacramento’s pace has dropped to just 96.55 adjusted possessions per game which is the third-slowest in the NBA during that span. But while Sacramento ranks 14th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season, they have risen all the way up to fifth in that metric in their last ten games. The Kings have held their last five opponents to 45.7% shooting which has resulted in 106.2 Points-Per-Game — and that is -2.2% and -8.4 PPG below their season averages. Sacramento has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Kings have played 18 of their last 25 road games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total in April including seven of their nine games this month. New Orleans now has their own significant injury news to deal with after Zion Williamson injured his left calf late in the game on Tuesday which will keep him out for tonight’s contest. He led the way with 40 points in the loss to the Lakers — and the Pelicans will very much miss his scoring tonight. But Williamson is a liability on defense — New Orleans holds their opponents to -3.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions when he is off the court. Brandon Ingram is healthy again — but he does not appear to be close to 100% yet. He only played 25 minutes on Tuesday and was not on the court in crunch time in the fourth quarter. He scored only 11 points on 4 of 12 shooting — and he has averaged just 12 PPG in his two games back in action. As it is and even with Williamson, the Pelicans’ offense has slowed down in the half-court to close out the regular season. While they ranked 10th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the half court during the regular season, they dropped to 18th by scoring only 97.3 points per 100 adjusted possessions in their final ten regular season games. New Orleans has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row at home — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 24 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record, they have played 15 of these games Under the Total. FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans beat the Kings in all five of their meetings this season after their 135-123 upset win in Sacramento as a 1-point underdog on April 11th. Sacramento has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 10 or more points. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (557) and the New Orleans Pelicans (558). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-15-24 |
Predators v. Penguins UNDER 6 |
Top |
2-4 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
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At 7:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (39) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (40). THE SITUATION: Nashville (47-29-5) has won two games in a row after their 6-4 victory against Columbus on Saturday. Pittsburgh (37-31-12) has lost two of their last three games after a 6-4 loss against Boston on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This game involves two teams with similar profiles. Both teams still have something at stake in the playoff races. Both teams were struggling for most of the season before a veteran leader put his teammates on his back to orchestrate a furious late-season postseason push. Both teams have played higher-scoring teams lately — but those recent results may point to a lower-scoring affair tonight. The Predators have clinched one of the final two wildcard spots in the Western Conference. They are three points ahead of Vegas for the seventh seed — but this is Nashville’s final game of the regular season while the Golden Knights have a game in hand so the Predators need some result to help them avoid dropping to the eighth seed. Led by Roman Josi, Nashville has a 20-4-3 mark in their last 27 games. The Predators got their scoring attack going against the lowly Blue Jackets on Saturday — but they have played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total after scoring four or more goals in their last game. They have also played 6 straight Unders after scoring six or more goals in their last game. Additionally, Nashville has played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a win by two or more goals — and they have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total after a game where eight or more combined goals were scored. The Predators beat Chicago on the road in their previous game by a 5-1 score — and they have played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row by more than one goal. They have played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in two or more games in a row. Juuse Saros will be between the pipes tonight. He has a solid 2.75 Goals-Against-Average and a .910 save percentage in 24 starts on the road — and he enjoys a 2.67 GAA and a .913 save percentage in his 23 starts after the All-Star break. Nashville has played 22 of their last 31 games against teams from the Eastern Conference. Pittsburgh has two games remaining in the regular season this week — and they need points as they currently trail three times that are one point ahead of them in the logjam for the final wildcard slot in the Eastern Conference. Led by Sidney Crosby, the Penguins have a 7-1-3 record in their last 11 games. Pittsburgh has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss by two or more goals — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 24 of their last 36 home games Under the Total after allowing five or more goals in their last game. The Penguins have allowed 11 combined goals in their last two games — but they have then played 18 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after allowing four or more goals in two or more games in a row. Alex Nedeljkovic will be their goalie tonight — he has a 2.71 GAA and a .909 save percentage in his 18 games at home this season. Pittsburgh has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games — and they have played 23 of their last 32 home games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their contests.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on November 28th with the Predators winning in Nashville by a 3-2 score. The Penguins have played 13 of their last 19 home games Under the Total when playing with revenge. With both teams playing with playoff intensity, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NHL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (39) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (40). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-10-24 |
Magic v. Bucks UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
99-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). THE SITUATION: Orlando (46-33) has lost two of their last three games after their 118-106 upset loss at Houston as a 3-point favorite last night. Milwaukee (48-31) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 104-91 victory against Boston as a 3.5-point favorite yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks broke their string of upset losses by making 53.1% of their shots against the Celtics which was the best shooting effort in their last five games - albeit against a Boston squad playing without Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis defending the interior. But the bigger news was Giannis Antetokounmpo leaving the game in the third quarter with a left calf injury. While it does not look like a season-ender, Antetokounmpo will not take the court tonight. That leaves the Milwaukee offense guard heavy which is not a good look when facing this Magic defense that has outstanding defenders at the guard position. The Bucks raced out to a 63-43 halftime lead yesterday — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after going into halftime with a 15-point or better lead. They went into halftime with a 61-50 lead against New York in their previous game — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after owning two straight double-digit halftime leads. Milwaukee has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Head coach Doc Rivers will want his team to maintain their recent defensive intensity playing without Antetokounmpo. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. They have held their last five opponents to 111.6 Points-Per-Game which is -4.9 PPG below their season average. But the Bucks are only making 45.1% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 107.6 PP — and those marks are -3.7% and -11.9 PPG below their season average. Milwaukee has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Orlando allowed the Spurs to make 52.3% of their shots last night which was the third straight game where their opponent made at least 50% of their shots against them. The Magic have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots — and they have played 4 straight Unders after allowing three straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. They have played 6 straight Unders after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss by double-digits. The Under is 19-12-1 in their 32 games playing without a day of rest. And while last night’s final score finished Over the 215.5-point total, Orlando has played 23 of their last 35 games on the road Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Franz Wagner did not play in that game as he is nursing a right ankle injury that leaves him questionable tonight — and Gary Harris is out dealing with an injury. This team has slowed things down on offense by playing at the 27th slowest pace in the league since the All-Star break. Led by Jalen Suggs who is making the first or second All-Defensive team this year, Orlando ranks third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Magic have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Milwaukee has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams are still playing for playoff seeding — so the intensity will be high. These two teams last played on December 21st in the 118-114 victory by the Bucks in Milwaukee — and Orlando has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-09-24 |
Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
102-87 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (515) and the Memphis Grizzlies (516). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (19-59) has lost three of their last four games after their 133-126 loss to Philadelphia as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (27-51) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 116-96 loss to Philadelphia as a 14-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Led by their rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs are still playing hard late in the season despite being out of the playoff race. They had covered six games in a row before the point spread loss to the surging 76ers with Joel Embiid back from injury. The biggest improvement for this San Antonio team has been on the defensive end of the court. In their last 15 games, the Spurs rank 10th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is a big jump from their 22nd ranking for the entire season. However, the offense has only improved to 25th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last 15 games from their 26th ranking overall — so credit goes to their defense for their improved competitiveness. San Antonio has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. One of the things holding the offense back has been the season-ending injury to Devin Vassell who was scoring 19.5 Points-Per-Game. They are only making 44.0% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 106.1 PPG — and those numbers are -2.0% and -6.2 PPG below their season averages. The Spurs have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s. They have played 4 straight Unders when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Memphis allowed the Sixers to nail 51.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests. The Grizzlies have still held their last five opponents to just 106.6 PPG which is -6.1 PPG below their season average. But this team is a M*A*S*H unit with a long list of injured players out for tonight’s game including Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, and Luke Kennard joining Ja Morant unable to take the court. Memphis is scoring only 102.6 PPG in their last five games which is -3.3 PPG below their season average. The Grizzlies have played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 100 points in their last game. And in their last 16 games after winning two of their last three games, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Memphis stays at home where they have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record — and the Grizzlies have played 24 of their last 36 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (515) and the Memphis Grizzlies (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-08-24 |
Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 146 |
Top |
60-75 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (675) and the Connecticut Huskies (676) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Purdue (34-4) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 63-50 victory against North Carolina State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. Connecticut (36-3) has won 12 games in a row after their 86-72 victory against Alabama as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are outstanding on the offensive end of the court — but I suspect the strength of their play on defense will dictate the flow of this game. Purdue ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. In their 12 games played on a neutral court, they are allowing -5.0 fewer points per adjusted possessions. They only made 40.0% of their shots on Saturday — but it was their defense that carried the day as they held the Wolfpack to just 36.8% shooting in their 13-point victory. The Boilermakers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They have covered the point spread in all five of their games in the Big Dance — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. UConn ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on a neutral court. They are giving up -10.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions in their 11 games played on a neutral court. The Huskies have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on the road after a win by 10 or more points. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up win — and they have played 22 of their last 34 road games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while UConn has made at least 50% of their shots in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Huskies have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Boilermakers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — and the Huskies have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 25* CBB Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (675) and the Connecticut Huskies (676). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-05-24 |
Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 226 |
Top |
106-108 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Dallas Mavericks (548). THE SITUATION: Golden State (42-34) has won six games in a row after their 133-110 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite last night. Dallas (46-30) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-92 win against Atlanta as an 11.5-point favorite yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 48.6% of their 3s last night en route to a 58.7% shooting percentage which is their best mark of the season. Expect a visit from the Regression Gods tonight — especially with both Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga questionable with nagging knee injuries. As it is, Golden State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Warriors have covered the point spread in two straight games as well as five of their last six contests. They have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while Golden State has outrebounded their last two opponents by at least ten boards, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after outrebounding two or more straight opponents by ten or more rebounds. This is their third game since Tuesday — and they have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in four days. Head coach Steve Kerr has his team amping up their intensity on the defensive end of the court as the postseason approaches. They have shaved off from than 7.0 points from their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number to improve to fifth in the league in that metric. They have held their last five opponents to 42.7% shooting which has resulted in just 102.6 Points-Per-Game that they have allowed — and those numbers are -3.9% and 13.0 PPG below their season averages. But they are also scoring 114.0 PPG over those five games which is -4.0 PPG below their season averages. The Mavericks live-and-die by the 3-point shot. Golden State ranks sixth in the NBA in 3-point defense by holding their opponents to 35.7% shooting from behind the arc — and they are even better on the road by holding their home hosts to 34.9% shooting from 3. Dallas has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a win on their home court. They have also played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Mavericks have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. Head coach Jason Kidd has also overseen a dramatic transformation of the play of his team’s defense. The acquisitions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline gave this team a much-needed wing defender and rim protector. Dallas ranks third in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games. They have not allowed their last six opponents to shoot better than 45.6% from the field — and their last nine opponents have not eclipsed 107 points with three of those foes held to 97 or fewer points. They have held their last five opponents to 42.0% shooting which has resulted in 101.0 PPG which is -5.4% and -14.8 PPG below their season averages. But the Mavs are scoring 114.6 PPG in their last five games which is -3.7 PPG below their season average — and now Luka Doncic is questionable to play this game without a day of rest given “right knee” issues. Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. They have played 8 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total The Warriors have played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Dallas Mavericks (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-02-24 |
Georgia v. Seton Hall UNDER 145.5 |
Top |
67-84 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (663) and the Seton Hall Pirates (664) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Georgia (20-16) has won four of their last five games after their 79-77 upset victory at Ohio State as a 9-point underdog last Tuesday. Seton Hall (23-12) has won five of their last six games after their 91-68 victory against UNLV as a 6-point favorite last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs shot 47.8% from the field against the Buckeyes which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Georgia ranked just tenth in the SEC and currently ranks 105th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. In their five games played on a neutral court, the Bulldogs are scoring -12.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Georgia has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. Their game with Ohio State finished Over the 150-point Total — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when coming off a game that finished Over the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s, the Buckeyes have palled 8 of these games Under the Total. Seton Hall made 56.5% of their shots against the Runnin’ Rebels which was the best shooting effort in their last 19 contests. But the Pirates have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points on their home court. Seton Hall beat North Texas by a 72-58 score in their previous game in the NIT — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two straight games at home by double-digits. They have played 7 straight games Under the Total after winning two games in a row where they covered as the favorite. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. On the road, the Pirates score -9.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions.
FINAL TAKE: Seton Hall has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when listed as the favorite or a pick ‘em. Georgia has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games in tournament settings. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (663) and the Seton Hall Pirates (664). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-30-24 |
Illinois v. Connecticut OVER 155 |
Top |
52-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (651) and the Connecticut Huskies (652) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Illinois (29-8) has won seven straight games after their 72-69 upset victory against Iowa State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. Connecticut (34-3) has won ten games in a row with their 82-52 victory against San Diego State as a 12-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at TD Garden Arena in Boston, Massachusetts.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Illini played their best game on defense in their last five contests by holding the Cyclones to just 39.7% shooting from the field. But defense is not a staple for this Illinois team that ranks 98th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. When playing away from home, they are still allowing +5.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions — and that is the 316th worst drop in efficiency when compared to a team’s defensive efficiency when playing at home. They rank 129th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their 19 games away from home — and that is not simply a function of playing in hostile environments since they also rank 172nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their eight games played on a neutral court. To make matters worse for head coach Brad Underwood, it is very difficult to prepare for Huskies’ head coach Dan Hurley’s complex offensive sets — especially with only one day to prepare. The Illini only made 42.1% of their shots against the tough Iowa State defense — and that was the worst shooting effort in their last five contests. The Fighting Illini are a powerhouse on that end of the court. They lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last ten games — and they also lead the nation in that metric when playing away from home. They score +12.3 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home which is the biggest jump in the nation. They make 47.6% of their shots including 36.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 85.6 Points-Per-Game on the road which is +1.4 more PPG than their season average. But they allow their opponents to make 45.0% of their shots including 36.1% of their 3s resulting in 78.1 PPG which is +4.9 PPG above their season average. Illinois has played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court. UConn made 46.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Huskies are scoring 82.7 PPG in this Big Dance despite only making 30.6% of their 3-pointers. They make 36.2% of their 3s on the season while ranking number in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. When playing on the road, they fall to second in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, just behind the Illini. They outrebounded the Aztecs by a 50-29 margin — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after outrebounding their previous opponent by +20 or more boards. But the Huskies have played four straight Unders on the strength of their defense and they have not allowed more than 58 points in those four games. A few things about this Under trend. UConn has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two or more games in a row — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have won all four of those games by at least 16 points — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning four or more games in a row by double-digits. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who score 84 or more PPG. On the road, they are also giving up +5.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions than when they are at home. The Huskies have a great roster but they probably lack the player who can slow down the Illini’s Terrence Shannon.
FINAL TAKE: UConn attempts 24 shots from behind the arc per game — and Illinois has played 13 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who take at least 21 shots from 3-point range per game. The Fighting Illini have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total against winning teams — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (651) and the Connecticut Huskies (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-24 |
Creighton v. Tennessee UNDER 146.5 |
Top |
75-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Blue Jays (641) and the Tennessee Volunteers (642) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Creighton (25-9) has won five of their last six games after their 86-73 victory in double-overtime against Oregon as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (26-8) has won nine of their last 11 games after their 62-58 win against Texas as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bluejays only made 38.7% of their shots against the Ducks last weekend — but they did convert on 15 of their 39 shots (38.5%) of their shots from 3-point range (many of them in the second double overtime period to ruin our Oregon play). Creighton lives and dies by their 3-point shooting — they rank seventh in the nation by taking 48.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Their reliance on 3s could spell trouble when facing this stout Volunteers defense that ranks 28th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 30.9% of their 3-pointers. The Bluejays score -10.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home — that discrepancy is the 352nd worst split in the nation. The problem for Creighton is they lack a Plan B if their 3s are not falling. They are dead last in the nation by forcing turnovers in 11.1% of their opponent’s possessions. They only rebound 26.2% of their missed shots, ranking 273rd in the nation. They are the only team left in the Big Dance that has a negative Shot Volume mark relative to what they surrender. But head coach Greg McDermott’s squad is a good defensive team that ranks 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Sacrificing offensive rebounding allows the Bluejays to get back on defense — and not going for turnovers limits the fouls they commit. They have the best defensive foul rate in the nation. They play great half-court defense by ranking 10th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.2%. The focus on defense is to get their opponent off the 3-point line — they rank sixth in the nation with their opponents only taking 27.6% of their shots from behind the arc. Made 3s consist of only 25.1% of their opponent’s points which is the 336th lowest mark. Creighton has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Tennessee has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread. This Volunteers team was supposed to be different and not offensively challenged given the emergence of Dalton Knecht. But Knecht and Zakai Zeigler combined to miss 14 of their 16 shots from behind the arc. These primary scorers may be feeling the pressure to compensate for the massive funk that Santiago Vescovi is mired in right now. After scoring 12.9 Points-Per-Game and making 39% of his 3-pointers in the previous two seasons, he limped into this tournament with a 3.3 PPG scoring average in his last seven games while making only 23% of their shots including just 4 of 22 (18.1%) of his shots from behind the arc. In his two NCAA Tournament games, Vescovi has only scored eight combined points with a 33.3% shooting percentage with only two made 3s in his seven attempts. His struggles are impacting the flow of the offense — not only did Tennessee only make 33.8% of their shots against the Longhorns, but they had more turnovers than assists. Creighton will give the Vols the midrange — but Knecht only connects on 39% of his midrange jumpers. Tennessee will rely on its defense that held Texas without a 3-pointer for 24 straight minutes on Saturday. The Volunteers rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their 44.1% opponent’s effective field goal percentage ranks fourth in the nation — and they hold their opponents to 44.1% shooting inside the arc. Tennessee has played 30 of their last 44 road games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest.
FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s including all four of their games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Blue Jays (641) and the Tennessee Volunteers (642). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-27-24 |
Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
111-118 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-28) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 115-92 victory at home against Charlotte as an 11.5-point favorite on Monday. Charlotte (17-54) has lost five games in a row after that loss two days ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers nailed 53.5% of their shots against the Hornets which was the best shooting effort in their last 18 games. Despite that performance, Cleveland is struggling to score points as they continue to play without the injured Donovan Mitchell. They have just a 5-7 record in the last 12 games with Mitchell as he nurses a fractured nose and a nagging leg injury. In their last five games, the Cavs are making 46.4% of their shots but playing at a slower pace — they are scoring only 100.4 Points-Per-Game in those five contests. They have held their last five opponents to 105.4 PPG. Cleveland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. Their victory on Monday eked Over the 206-point total in that game — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing a game on the road that finished Over the Total. They had failed to cover the point spread in four of their previous five games — and they have played 21 of their last 31 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Led by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Cleveland has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, the Cavs have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite. They have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than .250. Charlotte has not scored more than 98 points in five straight games — and they have not cracked even 93 points in their last three games. With LaMelo Ball out with an injury and Terry Rozier shipped off to Miami at the trade deadline, the Hornets offense is relying on Mikal Bridges as their go-to scorer with rookie Brandon Miller the second option. In their last five games, Charlotte is making only 42.7% of their shots resulting in only 93.8 PPG. They return home after a four-game road trip having played 31 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row on the road. The Hornets have played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total against an opponent with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points — and they have played 16 of 25 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points under head coach Steve Clifford. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-25-24 |
Nets v. Raptors UNDER 220 |
Top |
96-88 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (26-45) has lost two games in a row after their 105-93 loss at New York as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Toronto (23-48) has lost ten games in a row after their 112-109 loss at Washington as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets only made 44.7% of their shots against the Knicks on Saturday but it was still their best shooting effort in their last three games. They are scoring only 105.8 Points-Per-Game in their last five games — and they have failed to score more than 108 points in five of their last six contests. They have also failed to score more than 100 points in three of their last six games — so this team that is playing without the injured Cameron Johnson (amongst others) is quite capable of putting up a clunker. Brooklyn has held two of their last three opponents to 105 and 104 points so the effort on defense has been steady as of late. The Nets have played 27 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two or more games on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Brooklyn continues their four-game road trip scoring only 109.1 PPG which is -2.0 PPG below their season average. The Nets have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40%. Toronto is M*A*S*H unit right now as they conduct their soft tank job — they are missing so many players headlined by Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and R.J. Barrett. Gary Trent, Jr. is their go-to scorer right now. The 109 points they scored on Saturday were their most points in their last six games — they had not scored 104 in their previous five games including two clunkers where they scored only 98 and 89 points. They are only making 44.1% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 107.5 PPG. They have not shot better than 44.1% from the field in four of their last six games. The Raptors have held four of their last six opponents to 112 or fewer points. And while the Wizards’ 47.8% shooting effort on Saturday was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games, Toronto has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing three or more straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots from the field. The Raptors have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after losing five or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have played 26 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they are scoring only 110.1 PPG which is -3.0 fewer PPG than their season average — but they are holding their guests to 114.5 PPG which is -3.6 PPG lower than their season average. Toronto has played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in March. They have played 9 of their last 13 opponents with a losing record Under the Total in the second half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: The Nets will remember their 121-93 loss in Toronto against the Raptors in their most recent meeting on February 22nd. Brooklyn has played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-21-24 |
Drake v. Washington State UNDER 138.5 |
Top |
61-66 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (745) and the Washington State Cougars (746) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (28-6) has won five straight games as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after upsetting Indiana State in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship Game as a 3-point underdog on March 10th. Washington State (24-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 58-52 loss to Colorado as a 2-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, Nebraska.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs nailed 51.7% of their shots in their upset victory against the Sycamores 11 days ago which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. With the extended layoff between games, their shooting may be rusty tonight — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They also allowed Indiana State to make 52.5% of their shots in that game which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests — so head coach Darian DeVries will likely have his team tighten up on that end of the court. Drake struggled on the defensive end of the court in hostile environments where they had an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 103.9 — but their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their seven games on neutral courts of 97.8 this season was in line with their 98.5 defensive efficiency clip when playing on their home court. The Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. And while they have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 5 straight Unders after playing two or more Overs in a row. Furthermore, Drake has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders and 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Drake scores -2.7 fewer Points-Per-Game when playing away from home — and they do not engage the things to increase their scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They only pull down 24.1% of their missed shots, ranking 314th in the nation. They force turnovers in just 17.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 142nd. They rank 186th in getting to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs have not gotten great point guard play from sophomore Conor Enright or freshman Coby Colby who split time — it is why DeVries has resorted to deploying his son, Tucker, as a point forward. But that may not be effective against the outstanding half-court defense of the Cougars. Drake can’t get mired into being too reliant on outside shooting where they do make 35.8% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. Washington State ranks 51st in the nation by holding their opponents to a 31.6% shooting clip from behind the arc when playing away from home — and they rank 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Myles Rice is their only player who has the skills to create Despite their loss to the Buffaloes last week, they held them to just 43.1% shooting. They surrender -3.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But they also only score 69.7 PPG on the road which is -4.7 fewer PPG than their season average — and the -8.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road represents the 342nd worst drop in scoring efficiency when compared to their home numbers. Head coach Kyle Smith is going to slow this game to a crawl — the Cougars rank 315th in the nation with only 64.9 adjusted possessions per game. Washington State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread loss. And while the Bulldogs make 47.9% of their shots, the Cougars have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams who make at least 45% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: This game shapes up to be a rock fight given the lack of scoring options for both teams. Washington State has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight Unders against teams winning 80% or more of their games. The Cougars are outscoring their opponents by +7.4 Points-Per-Game — and Drake has played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (745) and the Washington State Cougars (746). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-19-24 |
Colorado State v. Virginia UNDER 121 |
Top |
67-42 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (671) and the Virginia Cavaliers (672) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Colorado State (24-10) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 74-61 loss to New Mexico as a 2.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Saturday. Virginia (23-10) had won two games in a row before their 73-65 upset loss in overtime to North Carolina State as a 2.5-point favorite in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers tend to get into rock fight contests — especially against teams unfamiliar with their brand of the pack line defense. Virginia ranks seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also like to slow the pace of the game to a crawl. They rank 352nd in the nation by averaging 19.7 seconds per possession — and they rank 362nd in the nation by averaging 59.9 adjusted possessions per game. Head coach Tony Bennett has had his team slow things down even more lately. In the Cav’s last three games, they have averaged 21.0, 21.5, and 22.6 seconds per possession. For some context, Air Force was the slowest team in the nation averaging 20.5 seconds per possession — so Bennett has his team going even slower than that. Virginia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while this is their third game since Thursday, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in the last seven days. On the road, the Cavaliers only make 40.5% of their shots resulting in 60.4 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -2.9 % and -3.2 PPG below their season averages. Their lack of secondary scoring threats will present a problem for them tonight. They rank 225th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring -4.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Virginia has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. Colorado State has played 8 straight Unders after winning four of their last five games. And while the Rams have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games, they have then played 4 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in four or more of their last five games. Colorado State is a good defensive team that ranked 38th in the nation and third in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to 42.9% shooting away from home resulting in 69.7 PPG — and they give up -1.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. But the Rams’ 46.4% shooting percentage and 72.4 PPG scoring mark away from home are 2.4% and -4.4 PPG below their season averages. They score -4.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. They rank 241st in the nation by making only 31.8% of their shots from behind the arc away from home — and their inability to make 3s will make solving the Virginia pack line defense very difficult. They are led by point guard Isaiah Stevens — but he has a difficult challenge tonight when he will be guarded by Reece Beekman who is a glove defensively. Colorado State has played 26 of their last 39 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when on a neutral court — and Virginia has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set no higher than 129.5. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (671) and the Virginia Cavaliers (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-18-24 |
Wolves v. Jazz OVER 223.5 |
Top |
114-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (46-21) has won two straight games after their 119-100 victory at Utah as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Utah (29-38) has lost four of their last five games after that loss at home to the Timberwolves.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With Minnesota playing without Karl-Anthony Towns for the rest of the season as he recovers from a torn meniscus, the initial take would be to consider Unders for the T-Wolves given the absence of his scoring prowess. But a contrarian position when the Timberwolves after playing a team with a terrible defense is prudent in this situation. Mike Conley has stepped up in the last two games to score 23 and 25 points in their last two games to offer complementary scoring to Anthony Edwards. He has nailed five 3-pointers in both of those games. As it is, the Timberwolves have played 25 of their last 36 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. And they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row. Minnesota remains an elite defensive club even without Towns — and they held their last two opponents to just 100 points. The T-Wolves have played 30 of their last 44 road games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they are making 48.3% of their shots resulting in 114.6 Points-Per-Game. Minnesota has played 29 of their last 44 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Rudy Gobert is questionable for tonight’s contest with a left rib sprain — and if he does not play, he makes the Timberwolves interior defense much less formidable. Utah is fully embracing tanking for the rest of the season. The Jazz owes Oklahoma City their first-round draft pick if it falls outside the top ten. Not coincidentally, they have the worst defensive rating in their last 15 games. Utah has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in March including five of their seven games this month. Jordan Clarkson remains out with a groin injury and Lauri Markkanen is questionable with a quad injury after missing extended time due to that injury. In their last five games, they have allowed their opponents to make 50.7% of their shots resulting in 125.0 PPG — and they have allowed their last five visitors to score 119.6 PPG when they are playing at home. The Jazz have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a Northwest Division rival. They have also played 5 straight Overs after a double-digit loss at home.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has won the last four meetings with Utah after Saturday’s victory. The Jazz have played 27 of their last 40 road games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. They have also played 35 of their last 55 games when playing with double-revenge — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with triple-revenge. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-16-24 |
UTEP v. Western Kentucky UNDER 145 |
Top |
71-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas-El Paso Miners (631) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (632) in the Championship Game of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UTEP (18-15) has won five straight games after their 65-63 upset win against Sam Houston State as a 5-point underdog yesterday afternoon. Western Kentucky (21-11) has won two games in a row after their 85-54 victory against Middle Tennessee as a 6-point favorite in their semifinal contest yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: UTEP only made 43.7% of their shots yesterday — but they held the Bearkats to just 41.2% shooting while holding them to just 53 points. The Miners have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a Conference USA opponent — and they have played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less this season. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And in their last 9 games played with one day or less of rest, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. UTEP only makes 41.3% of their shots on the road resulting in just 65.5 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -3.7% and -7.2 PPG below their season averages. They rank 324th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road — and they are scoring -4.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road which is the 262nd worst drop in the country. But the Miners also rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are giving up -1.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. A key dynamic for this contest is that UTEP leads the nation by forcing turnovers in 26.5% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road. The Hilltoppers play at the fastest pace in the nation — but the pressure the Miners present will slow down their attack. Western Kentucky ranks 262nd in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.2% of their possessions. UTEP has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last games Under the Total as an underdog of six points or less on a neutral court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 tournament games Under the Total. Western Kentucky wants to build off their strong defensive effort yesterday after limiting the Blue Raiders to just 31.0% shooting in their 31-point victory. The Hilltoppers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by double-digits. And while they made 11 of their 22 shots from behind the arc yesterday, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. Western Kentucky has scored 85 or more points in their two tournament games this week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have scored at least 79 points in five straight games — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 75 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Hilltoppers’ fast pace makes Overs tempting when considering them but they only make 45.4% of their shots on the road resulting in 77.7 PPG — and those numbers are -1.4% and -3.0 PPG below their season averages. They are scoring -3.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. They are also giving up -4.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Western Kentucky has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a favorite of up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season contests after Western Kentucky won on their home court by a 90-80 score on February 15th. The Miners have played 5 of their 6 opportunities to avenge an earlier loss this season Under the Total. They have also played 36 of their last 55 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas-El Paso Miners (631) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-24 |
Alabama A&M v. Texas Southern UNDER 136 |
Top |
65-72 |
Loss |
-112 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Alabama A&M Bulldogs (306503) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306504) in the Semifinals of the Southwest Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Alabama A&M (12-21) has won three of their last four games after their 75-63 upset victory against Alcorn State as a 3-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of this tournament on Wednesday. Texas Southern (15-15) has won six of their last seven contests after their 72-62 victory as a 3-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Alabama A&M has pulled off two straight upsets relying on their defense. After holding Southern University to 37.2% shooting last Saturday in their 66-56 victory, they limited Alcorn State to just a 37.0% field goal percentage in their upset victory on Wednesday. The Bulldogs rank fourth in the SWAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.7%. Alabama A&M has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total after winning two of their last three contest. But the Bulldogs rank only 356th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Granted, we are talking about a SWAC team in what is not one of the strongest conferences in the nation. But they rank just 10th in the SWAC on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they fall to 11th in that metric when playing on the road. They are making only 40.6% of their shots on the road including just 25.8% of their 3-pointers resulting in only 66.4 Points-Per-Game. They are scoring -7.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But back to their defense which has held their last five opponents to 64.4 PPG from 39.7% shooting from the field — and those marks are -11.0 PPG and -2.7% below their season averages. They lead the SWAC by limiting their opponents to making only 41.7% of their shots inside the arc. SWAC opponents are making only 38.5% of their shots against them overall — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in conference play. Furthermore, Alabama A&M has played 42 of their last 69 games Under the Total as an underdog. Texas Southern comes off their best defensive game of the season after limiting Jackson State to a 32.3% shooting percentage yesterday. While I often think that is a mark screaming out for the Regression Gods, in this instance I suspect it is reflective of the tough defense this team has embraced under head coach Johnny Jones as they enter the postseason. That game finished Under the 140.5-point total — and the Tigers have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their previous game. Texas Southern is second in the SWAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the conference in that metric when playing on the road. They also rank a very respectable 60th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.2%. The Tigers have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after winning two of their last three. On the road, Texas Southern holds their opponents to -7.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. But unfortunately for them, they also score -4.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They only make 39.3% of their shots including 29.1% of their 3-pointers away from home resulting in just 65.8 PPG — and those marks are -2.1% and -4.4 PPG below their season averages. Their last five-game scoring numbers are up — but that comes from three games on their home court where they scored at least 79 points in each game while generating 84.0 PPG. But in their last three games away from home, they have not scored more than 77 points. The Tigers have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 23 of their last 34 road games Under the Total in conference play.
FINAL TAKE: Texas Southern won the only previous meeting between these teams this season in an 85-69 victory at home. The Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* CBB Southwest Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Alabama A&M Bulldogs (306503) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-11-24 |
San Francisco v. Gonzaga UNDER 150.5 |
Top |
77-89 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (873) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (874) in the Semifinals of the West Coast Conference. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (23-9) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 72-51 victory against Portland as a 16-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament on Saturday. Gonzaga (24-6) has won eight straight games after their 70-57 upset victory at Saint Mary’s as a 3.5-point underdog on March 2nd. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dons made 52.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. They stepped up their play on defense by holding the Pilots to just 32.7% shooting — and they have played 21 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55% of their shots in their last contest. Additionally, San Francisco has played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points against a West Coast Conference rival. They have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. And they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They are making 45.7% of their shots on the road resulting in 71.5 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -3.3% and -8.4 PPG below their season averages. They are scoring -4.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in those road games. But on the other end of the court, they are holding their opponents to just 42.2% shooting with a 32.2% clip from behind the arc resulting in 66.9 PPG. The Dons rank 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to the eighth-best defense in the nation in that metric when playing away from home. They have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.2% on the road ranking 21st in the nation — and they are giving up -8.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road. San Francisco has played 23 of their last 33 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Gonzaga made 51.7% of their shots against the Gaels which was the worst shooting effort in their alt three games — but they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two or more games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have won six straight games by 13 or more points — and they have then played 6 straight road games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row by 10 or more points. And in their last 13 games on the road after winning four or more games in a row, they have then played 11 of these games Under the Total. The Bulldogs are scoring 80.3 PPG away from home with a 49.6% field goal percentage — but those numbers are still -5.3 PPG and -2.3% below their season averages. They hold their opponents to 42.7% shooting and 69.9 PPG on the road — and they are giving up -3.9 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road. They rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. Interestingly, head coach Mark Few has his team playing at a slower pace lately — they are averaging 1.3 fewer possessions per game in their last ten games. The Dons are outscoring their opponents by +12.3 PPG — and Gonzaga has played 7 straight Unders against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +12.0 more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. Gonzaga has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (873) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-24 |
Arizona v. USC OVER 161.5 |
Top |
65-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
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At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (727) and the USC Trojans (728). THE SITUATION: Arizona (88-65) has won four games in a row as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after their 88-65 victory as a 9.5-point favorite as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday. USC (13-17) has won two games in a row after their 81-73 victory as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made 51.9% of their shots against the Bruins which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They are making 51.8% of their shots in their last five contests. Arizona ranks sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring 90.3 Points-Per-Game. They have scored 85 or more points in four straight games as well as nine of their last 11 contests. But they have also allowed 75 or more points in five of their last eight contests as well. They play at a very fast pace — they average only 15.1 seconds per possession which is the eighth quickest mark in the nation. The Wildcats have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road after a straight-up win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a win on the road where they scored 85 or more points. Furthermore, they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while this is just their second game since February 28th, they have then played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with just one day of rest. Arizona stays on the road where they rank third in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring +4.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But they are also giving up 80.6 PPG on the road — and the +8.6 points per 100 adjusted possessions they are giving up away from home represents the 342nd biggest jump in the nation. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 28 road games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. USC has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Trojans have scored 163 combined points in their last two games — and they are making 48.6% of their shots in their last five contests resulting in 77.8 PPG. But they have allowed three of their last five opponents to make at least 50% of their shots after the Sun Devils enjoyed a 50% shooting clip against them on Thursday. USC has played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a victory against a Pac-12 rival. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They stay at home where they are scoring +3.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. But the Trojans rank 10th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total on their home court. USC has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a dog or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona won the first meeting on January 17th by an 82-67 score as a 20.5-point favorite — and the Trojans have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when avenging a same-season loss on the road. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (727) and the USC Trojans (728). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-09-24 |
Rhode Island v. Fordham OVER 146.5 |
Top |
58-50 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Rhode Island Rams (613) and the Fordham Rams (614). THE SITUATION: Rhode Island (11-19) has lost seven games in a row after their 69-57 loss at home to George Mason as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday. Fordham (12-18) has lost two games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests after a 66-64 loss at Massachusetts as a 9.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Rhode Island made only 29.4% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting performance of their season. That game finished well Under the 142.5-point total — but these Rams have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing five or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Rhode Island has let their last five opponents make 50.5% of their shots resulting in 84.0 Points-Per-Game. They go back on the road where they rank 337th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing their opponents to make 48.8% of their shots and 37.3% of their 3-pointers when on the road resulting in 81.9 PPG. They are surrendering +5.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road — but they are also scoring +1.2 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when away from home as well. They rank 35th in the nation by making 37.6% of their 3-pointers when away from home — and Fordham allows their guests to make 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home, ranking 359th in the nation. Rhode Island has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Rhode Island should also get plenty of points from the charity stripe as they lead the Atlantic 10 in free throw rate — and Fordham is last in the conference in putting their opponent on the line. Fordham has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Their loss against the Minutemen on Wednesday finished Under the 143-point Total — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Fordham ranks 10th in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they return home where they rank 222nd in the nation in that metric. They allow their opponents to guests to make 46.0% of their shots resulting in 73.7 PPG — and they are giving up +9.5 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on their home court. They are also scoring +3.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home. The hosting Rams have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when favored. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs at home when playing 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Fordham won the first meeting between these two teams by a 71-68 score as a 2.5-point underdog on January 24th — and Rhode Island has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Rhode Island Rams (613) and the Fordham Rams (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-24 |
Utah State v. San Jose State OVER 144.5 |
Top |
90-70 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (713) and the San Jose State Spartans (714). THE SITUATION: Utah State (24-5) has won three games in a row and five of their last six after their 72-60 victory against Air Force as a 17.5-point favorite on Friday. San Jose State (9-21) has lost five games in a row after their 68-50 loss at UNLV as a 13.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Aggies rank 11th in the nation by making 57.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they lead the Mountain West Conference with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. Utah State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a win in conference play — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after a win at home by 10 or more points. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing 60 or more points in their last game. They go back on the road where they are scoring 76.4 Points-Per-Game while giving up 72.5 PPG. They rank second in the MWC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency but sit just eighth in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They are scoring +2.6 points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road — and they are giving up +8.5 points per 100 adjusted possessions when on the road in hostile environments. The Aggies have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 6 straight Overs on the road as the favorite or as a pick ‘em. San Jose State has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a loss where they did not score more than 60 points — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 55 points in their last game. And while their loss to the Runnin’ Rebels finished Under the 138.5-point total, they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Spartans return home where they are nailing 47.8% of their shots resulting in 76.1 PPG — and those marks represent a +6.2 PPG and a +3.1% bump over their season averages. But they are also allowing their guests to make 47.4% of their shots including 39.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 76.9 PPG which is +2.2 PPG higher than their season defensive average. San Jose State scores +8.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions when at home which ranks 29th in the nation in the biggest jump. They also allow +4.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home, ranking 307th worst in the country. The Spartans have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: San Jose State is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation as they rank 281st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 331st in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.8% which does not bode well against a great shooting team like the Aggies. Utah State made 60% of their shots including a 6 of 12 mark from behind the arc en route to their 82-61 victory against the Spartans at home on January 30th — and San Jose State has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (713) and the San Jose State Spartans (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-24 |
North Carolina-Asheville v. Radford OVER 147.5 |
Top |
71-62 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
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At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306581) and the Radford Highlanders (306582). THE SITUATION: UNC-Asheville (19-11) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 78-77 upset loss at home against Gardner-Webb as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday. Radford (15-15) had their two-game winning streak end in a 58-57 upset loss at Charleston Southern as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs made 50% of their shots in their loss last week which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last three games. UNC-Asheville has played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 5 straight Overs after an upset loss to a Big South rival. And while that game with Gardner-Webb finished Over the 1553.5-point total, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last contest. The Bulldogs lead the Big South with an effective field goal percentage of 55.9% — and they rank 22nd in the nation by making 37.5% of their 3-pointers. They also rank 11th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 75.9 Points-Per-Game -- fueled by the sixth-best free throw rate when playing in hostile environments. They also rank 47th in the nation by making 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. But UNC-Asheville ranks 208th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they plummet to 307th in that nation in that metric when playing on the road in hostile environments. The adjusted +8.3 points per 100 possessions they allow in hostile environments represents the 339th worst spike in the country. They are giving up 78.8 PPG in those games. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog or a pick ‘em. The Highlanders make 46.5% of their shots — and UNC-Asheville has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams making 45% or more of their shots. Radford made only 41.8% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. They still rank third in the Big South in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are still making 49.3% of their shots in their last five games. More surprisingly, they held Charleston Southern to 35.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Highlanders rank 312th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking last in the Big South in that category. Radford has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games — and they have played 8 straight Overs after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They return home where they are scoring 76.2 PPG on 49.5% shooting — and those marks are +3.4 PPG and +3.0% above their season average. The Highlanders rank 14th in the nation by making 41.2% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on their home court. But they also rank 323rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — and the +5.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions they allow represents the 318th biggest jump when assessing home court play. Radford has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite of three points or less or as a pick ‘em. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Bulldogs average eight made 3s per game, the Highlanders have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who make eight or more 3s per game.
FINAL TAKE: Radford has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 6 straight Overs when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. UNC-Asheville has played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Big South Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306581) and the Radford Highlanders (306582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-01-24 |
Old Dominion v. Georgia Southern OVER 152.5 |
Top |
75-92 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (861) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (862). THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (7-23) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 89-64 loss at Appalachian State as a 14.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Georgia Southern (7-23) has won two of their last three games after their 87-73 victory as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Old Dominion plays at a fast pace — they rank 57th in the nation in Adjusted Possessions per Game while ranking 46th in their Average Possession Length. They have been playing even quicker in conference play as they lead the Sun Belt with 72.5 Adjusted Possessions per Game while averaging 16.2 Seconds per Possession. The Monarchs have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Old Dominion ranks 214th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to ranking 312th in the nation in that metric when playing in hostile environments. Furthermore, they rank 233rd in the nation in their drop in Adjusted Net Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. They are allowing their home hosts to make 46.3% of their shots resulting in 82.5 Points-Per-Game — and they are scoring 73.2 PPG in those road games. The Monarchs’ Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rises by 5.5 points when they are playing in hostile environments — and that bump ranks as the 38th biggest jump in the nation. Old Dominion has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 20-40% of their games. Georgia Southern played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding the Thundering Herd to 73 points. The Eagles rank 342nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But by making 56.9% of their shots in that game on Wednesday, they made at least 50.9% of their shots for the third time in their last four games. Georgia Southern has scored at least 80 points in three of their last four games. They are making 48.2% of their shots in their last five contests resulting in 80.0 PPG. They have played 35 of their last 54 home games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. They have played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after a win against a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games over the Total after a victory by ten or more points. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. They stay at home where they are making 47.1% of their shots including 41.0% of their 3-pointers resulting in 76.5 PPG. They are scoring +11.2 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home — and that rise in efficiency is the sixth largest for home courts in the nation. Georgia Southern has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion only makes 41.9% of their shots but they average 62 shot attempts per game. The Eagles have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who average at least 62 shots per game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are not making more than 42% of their shots. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (861) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (862). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-29-24 |
Towson v. North Carolina A&T UNDER 132.5 |
Top |
84-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Towson Tigers (779) and the North Carolina A&T Aggies (780). THE SITUATION: Towson (17-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 72-56 loss to the College of Charleston as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. North Carolina A&T (7-22) has lost seven straight games after their 83-67 loss at Monmouth as an 11-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers allowed the Cougars to nail 54.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games — and the 72 points they gave up was the most they had allowed in five straight contests. Towson still leads the Colonial Athletic Association in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have still held their last five opponents to just 40.2% shooting from the field resulting in only 61.4 Points-Per-Game. The Tigers should tighten things up on defense tonight — they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by double-digits and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss by 15 or more points. But Towson can struggle to score points. They rank 227th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are just eighth in the conference in that category. They go back on the road where they are only making 38.4% of their shots resulting in just 62.3 PPG. The Tigers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when favored by double-digits. UNC A&T only made 28.3% of their shots on Saturday — but that was only their second-lowest field goal percentage in their last five games in a span where they have not shot better than 38.2% from the field. In their last five games, the Aggies are making only 32.4% of their shots resulting in just 57.6 PPG. They are last in the Colonial Athletic Association and 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The 67 points they scored was their highest total in their last nine contests. UNC A&T has then played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They have also played 10 of their last 12 games at home Under the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 45.1% shooting resulting in 68.5 PPG — and those marks are -3.2% and -9.7 PPG lower than their season averages. The Aggies have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams can shoot the basketball. Towson ranks 314th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 46.7% and UNC A&T ranks 355th with an eFG of 44.2%. The Tigers have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and the Aggies have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Towson Tigers (779) and the North Carolina A&T Aggies (780). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-27-24 |
Pittsburgh v. Clemson OVER 141 |
Top |
62-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (631) and the Clemson Tigers (632). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (18-9) has won six of their last seven games after their 79-64 victory at Virginia Tech as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Clemson (19-8) has won five of their last six games with their 74-63 win against Florida State as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers held the Hokies to just 40.7% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But Pittsburgh is vulnerable on the defensive end of the court — especially in the interior where they rank 13th in the ACC by allowing their opponents to make 53.3% of their 2-point shots. And in their true road games, they allow their home hosts to make 56.3% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 329th in the nation. The Tigers' big man P.J. Hall should have a big night — he is scoring 18.7 Points-Per-Game while making more than 68% of his shots in the paint. Clemson ranks 38th in the nation by making 54.4% of their shots inside the arc. The Panthers have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points on their home court. Additionally, while Pitt has covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while they have won eight of their last ten games, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning at least eight of their last ten games. The Panthers rank just eighth in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.3% of their shots. But Pitt can put up points as they take advantage of most of their possessions and launch tons of 3s. They rank 18th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 14.2% of their possessions. They also rank 25th in the nation by taking 45.0% of their shots from behind the arc. On the road, they are scoring 72.9 PPG — and they rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. They are scoring +9.1 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road when compared to their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home. The Panthers have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total. And while the Tigers hold their opponents to 41.4% shooting, Pitt has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting from the field. Clemson held the Seminoles to just 36.9% shooting on Saturday on the heels of limiting Georgia Tech to a 30.2% field goal percentage last Wednesday — but they have then played 6 straight Overs after holding their last two opponents to no higher than 37% shooting. They only made 44.0% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five contests. But the Tigers are still making 49.8% of their shots in their also five games — and they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Clemson has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 7 straight Overs after a double-digit win at home. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while they have played two straight games Under the Total, they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They return home where they are allowing +1.9 more points per possession per 100 possessions in adjusted numbers — and that number ranks 245th in the largest home/road discrepancy. They are scoring 80.3 PPG at home — and they have played 12 of their last 19 home games over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, Clemson has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total in February. And while the Panthers are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 PPG, the Tigers have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh looks to avenge a 79-70 upset loss at home to Clemson as a 4.5-point underdog back on December 3rd — and they have played 5 of their last 6 opportunities for revenge Over the Total. The Panthers have also played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (631) and the Clemson Tigers (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-24 |
Coppin State v. Howard UNDER 139.5 |
Top |
69-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Coppin State Eagles (306639) and the Howard Bison (306640). THE SITUATION: Coppin State (2-22) has lost eight games in a row after their 68-66 loss to Norfolk State as a 12-point underdog on Saturday. Howard (12-15) has won three of their last four games after their 78-72 victory against Morgan State as a 10.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles are far away from being one of the best teams in college basketball — and it starts with their offense where they rank last in Division I in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank third to the bottom in Division I with their effective field goal percentage of 40.3. They only made 32.7% of their shots on Saturday in their narrow loss — and while I like to fade outlier shooting efforts like that in a team’s next game, that shooting performance was only tied for their sixth-lowest mark of the season. Coppin State has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They only scored 24 points in the first half on Saturday — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They go back on the road where the adjusted efficiency numbers project them to score -10.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than they do when playing at home. They are only making 36.0% of their shots away from home including 26.0% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in only 53.3 Points-Per-Game. Coppin State has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog getting 12.5 to 18 points. If there is one thing that the Eagles do well, it is force turnovers — they rank 16th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions. The Bison are vulnerable in this area since they turn the ball over in 21.3% of their possessions, ranking 350th in the nation. Taking away Howard’s scoring opportunities should keep the score of this game down. Coppin State also plays at a slow pace — their games average 66.4 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 264th in the nation. The Eagles have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Howard has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They stay at home where they hold their opponents to just 42.9% shooting including a 31.4% clip from behind the arc. And while the Bison are a good shooting team at home, they are going to lose possessions to this Eagles team because they turn the ball over in 22.4% of their possessions when playing at home, ranking 359th in the nation. Howard has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored or a pick ‘em. They have been favored by double-digits three previous times this season — and all three games finished Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Howard won the first meeting between these two teams on January 29th by an 81-66 score — but Coppin State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. The Eagles have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Coppin State Eagles (306639) and the Howard Bison (306640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-24 |
Kings v. Clippers UNDER 239 |
Top |
123-107 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (32-23) has won two straight games after their 127-122 victory against San Antonio as a 10.5-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (37-18) has won two of their last three games after their 101-95 victory as a 9-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings made 55.9% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. And while that final score cruised Over the 242-point total in that contest, Sacramento has then played 22 of their last 33 games on the road Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The Kings have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Sacramento ranks ninth in the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.0 — but now they go back on the road where that metric drops to 114.6, ranking 15th in the NBA. Their 115.7 Points-Per-Game scoring average on the road is -2.9 PPG below their season average. But the Kings tighten things up on defense when playing in hostile environments. While they rank 27th in defensive efficiency in the half-court when playing at home, they improve to a 19th ranking in the half-court when on the road. And while they rank 27th in transition defense at home, they rise to a ranking of 17th when on the road. Overall, Sacramento ranks 10th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 114.6 when on the road which is a big improvement versus their 118.1 mark at home which ranks 26th in the league. Their home hosts are making 47.8% of their shots resulting in 115.6 PPGG which is -0.9% and -2.4 PPG below their season averages. The Kings have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has played 8 straight Unders at home after a win by six points or less — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Clippers have covered the point spread only once in their last six games (three games ago) — and they have played 8 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. They return home where they hold their guests to just 110.5 PPG on 46.3% shooting — and they rank 11th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.9 which is much better than their 116.4 mark when on the road, ranking 15th in the league. But while they lead the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.6 when on the road, that number drops to 118.6 when at home which ranks just 10th in the league when measuring home court efficiency. The Kings are vulnerable to good 3-point shooting teams since they are last in the league by allowing their opponents to make 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. But Los Angeles is not a prolific shooting team from distance since only 38.1% of their shots are from behind 3-point range, ranking 17th in the NBA. They may be without two of their best 3-point shooters as well with both Paul George and Norman Powell questionable with nagging injuries.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home when favored by up to six points — and the Kings have played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-24 |
Wright State v. Oakland OVER 159.5 |
Top |
96-75 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (841) and the Oakland Grizzlies (842). THE SITUATION: Wright State (16-12) has won two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 93-78 victory at Detroit Mercy as a 10.5-point favorite on Thursday. Oakland (19-10) has won four games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 63-43 win at Robert Morris as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raiders nailed 53.3% of their shots on Thursday which was the fifth time in their last six games where they shot 50% or better from the field — and they have scored 85 or more points in four of their last five games. But they allowed the Titans to make 51.7% of their shots which was the third time in their last four games where their opponents made at least 50% of their shots. Wright State is an Over Machine because they shoot great and play at a fast pace but can’t stop anybody on the other end. The Raiders rank second in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.6% — and they rank in the top 11 in the nation in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. But they also rank 353rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponents post a 56.6% effective field goal percentage against them, ranking 354th in the nation. Wright State ranks 28th in the nation by averaging only 15.9 seconds per possession — and they rank 31st in the nation by averaging 71.0 adjusted possessions per game. The Raiders have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three contests. While this is their second game since last Saturday, they have also played 11 straight Overs when playing for the second time in eight days. They stay on the road where they average slightly more 73.2 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 17th in the nation. They make 51.8% of their shots on the road along with 41.0% of their 3-pointers (which leads the nation) resulting in 85.1 Points-Per-Game. But they allow their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots away from home resulting in 84.0 PPG. Wright State has played 11 of their last 12 road games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog of six points or less or as a pick ‘em. Oakland only made 34.5% of their shots on Thursday which was their worst shooting of the season — but they also held the Colonials to just 28.3% shooting in what was the best defensive effort of their campaign. While that final score flew Under the 147-point total, the Grizzlies have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have played 11 of their last 14 home games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have played 15 of their last 18 home games Over the Total after winning four games in a row — and they have played 6 straight Overs at home after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They return home where they made 47.6% of their shots including 39.6% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 82.2 PPG. They also average 69.2 adjusted possessions per game at home which is +1.9 possessions above their season average. But the Grizzlies defense takes a step back when they are playing at home. While Oakland ranks 146th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and second in Horizon League play, those numbers drop to 253rd in the nation and eighth in the conference when they are playing at home. The collapse comes from their interior defense as they allow their guests to make 52.5% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 308th in the nation — and Wright State ranks ninth in the nation by making 56.4% of their 2-pointers when playing away from home. Oakland has played 16 of their last 23 home games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total in February.
FINAL TAKE: The Raiders want to avenge a 74-60 upset loss at home to Oakland back on February 10th in their worst shooting game of the season where they made only 33.8% of their shots including just 5 of their 28 (17.9%) shots from behind the arc. Wright State has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Horizon League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (841) and the Oakland Grizzlies (842). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-24 |
Pepperdine v. San Francisco OVER 149 |
Top |
68-92 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Waves (799) and the San Francisco Dons (800). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (12-17) has won two games in a row after their 89-70 victory at Pacific as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. San Francisco (21-7) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 70-66 loss at Saint Mary’s as a 7.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Waves held Pacific to just 41.9% shooting on Wednesday which was the second-best defensive effort in their last eight games. But Pepperdine continues to struggle with their half-court defense as they rank 350th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.2% — and they allow their opponents to make 54.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 327th. The Wave have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. They have averaged a whopping 90 points in their last two games with both those contests combining for 160 points — and they have played 7 straight Overs after playing two games in a row where 155 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they allow their opponents to make 53.6% of their shots resulting in 84.4 Points-Per-Game. Pepperdine allows their opponents to nail 48.1% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home, ranking 362nd in the nation. Their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 60.4% away from home ranks 362nd in the country. The Wave have played 17 of their last 22 road games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog. They should be able to generate offense against the Dons tonight by getting to the free-throw line. Pepperdine ranks second in the West Coast Conference in getting to the charity stripe — and San Francisco ranks 295th in the nation and ninth in the West Coast Conference in putting their opponents on the line. The Wave have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. San Francisco has played 6 straight Overs at home after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They have also played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Dons are one of the best shooting teams in the nation — they rank 19th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.5%. Led by 6’9 Jonathan Mogbo, they should have their way inside against the weak interior defense of the Wave as they rank eighth in the nation by making 57.9% of their shots inside the arc. After playing their last two games on the road, San Francisco returns home where they make 52.1% of their shots resulting in 84.7 PPG. They also rank 50th in the nation by nailing a healthy 38.8% of their shots from behind the arc. The Dons have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco won the first meeting between these two teams by an 80-74 score as a 9.5-point favorite on February 8th. Pepperdine has played 21 of their opportunities for revenge Over the Total — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed 75 or more points. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Waves (799) and the San Francisco Dons (800). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-24 |
Jets v. Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (25) and the Chicago Blackhawks (26). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (34-15-5) has won four of their last five games after their 6-3 victory against Minnesota on Tuesday. Chicago (15-39-3) has lost two games in a row as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after a 3-1 loss against Philadelphia on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets lead the NHL in goals allowed when playing at five-on-five full strength. It all starts with goalie Conner Hellebuyck who is on pace to win another Vezina Trophy. He has a 2.20 Goals-Against-Average and a .925 save percentage in 40 games — and he has a 2.21 GAA and a .927 save percentage in five starts this month. Winnipeg has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win or tie in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road after a win by three or more goals. They have also played 22 of their last 32 road games Under the Total after a win where they scored more than five goals. The Jets have scored three or more goals in three straight games — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in three or more games in a row. Winnipeg goes back on the road where they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5 or lower. They have also played 10 straight Unders against teams winning 25-40% of their games. Furthermore, the Jets hold Central Division rivals to only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game. Chicago is last in the NHL by scoring just 2.07 Goals-Per-Game. They only have two players who have generated 30 or more points — and just four of their players have 20 or more points on the season. In their last five games, they are scoring only 2.0 Goals-Per-Game — and they are scoring just 1.8 Goals-Per-Game against division rivals. The Blackhawks have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. They have also played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. And while they have lost their last two games by multiple goals, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row by two or more goals. They stay at home where they have played 15 of their last 25 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5 or lower. And while the Jets are outscoring their opponents by +0.7 Goals-Per-Game, Chicago has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Goals-Per-Game. Petr Mrazek is their confirmed goaltender tonight — and he has been very good when playing at home where he has a 2.47 GAA and a .925 save percentage in 20 starts.
FINAL TAKE: There have been only ten combined goals in the previous three meetings between these Central Division rivals this season. Winnipeg won the last meeting between these teams by a 2-1 score on January 11th — and the Blackhawks have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (25) and the Chicago Blackhawks (26). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-24 |
Heat v. Pelicans UNDER 219 |
Top |
106-95 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). THE SITUATION: Miami (30-25) returns to the court tonight for the first time since the All-Star break after winning four of their last five games with their 109-014 upset victory at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog back on February 14th. New Orleans (34-22) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 127-105 win against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat stepped up their play on defense heading into the break. They held their last five opponents to 46.4% shooting which resulted in just 102.0 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -8.4 PPG and -1.0% below their respective season averages. They have held eight straight opponents to no more than 110 points — and they have held six of those opponents to 104 or fewer points. But Miami continues to struggle on the other end of the court as they have not scored more than 110 points in 14 of their last 18 games. Injuries will likely hold them back in scoring tonight. Terry Rozier is out with a knee and Josh Richardson is out with a shoulder — and Tyler Herro is questionable with a foot issue. As it is, the Heat have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Miami has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when enjoying a rest advantage versus their opponent. The Heat have played four straight Unders — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. On the road, they are scoring only 108.0 PPG — but they are allowing just 107.7 PPG. They have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 36 road games Under the Total with Total set in the 210s. New Orleans has played 9 straight Undress at home after a double-digit victory — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Pelicans made 52.1% of their shots last night after going into the All-Star break by making 56.2% against Washington — but they have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Both those games finished Over the Total — but they have then played 6 straight Unders after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing no more than their third game in the last ten days. With Brandon Ingram questionable with an illness and Zion Williamson questionable with his nagging left foot issues, they may be without one or two of their best scorers. As it is, New Orleans has averaged 114.2 PPG in their last five games which is -2.4 PPG below their season average. The Pelicans' play on the other end of the court has been outstanding — they rank sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 106 points — and they have held three of their last four opponents to no more than 105 points with two of those teams only scoring 84 and 87 points. Their last five opponents have scored just 108.2 PPG which is -3.9 PPG below their season average.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these struggle to score in crunch time which may explain why the Heat have played 17 of their last 24 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Pelicans have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-17-24 |
NC-Greensboro v. Wofford OVER 139 |
Top |
58-47 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (747) and the Wofford Terriers (748). THE SITUATION: UNC-Greensboro (18-8) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 76-61 win at The Citadel as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday. Wofford (15-11) has won two in a row and three of their last four contests after their 73-60 upset win at Mercer as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spartans held the Bulldogs to just 39.1% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. But UNC-Greensboro remains a below-average defensive team — they rank seventh in the Southern Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But what this team does well is shoot 3s — they rank eighth in the nation by making 39.0% of their shots from behind the arc. Even better, in their last ten contests, they are nailing 42.3% of their 3-pointers, ranking third in the country. The Spartans have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. They have also played 26 of their last 39 games on the road Over the Total after a win on the road. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Their game against The Citadel finished Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. They stay on the road where they are making 37.9% of their 3-pointers to help them score 72.1 Points-Per-Game. UNC-Greensboro has played 28 of their last 42 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when favored. Wofford has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win on the road against a conference rival — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Furthermore, the Terriers have played 8 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Wofford converted 10 of their 24 (41.7%) of their shots from behind the arc against the Bears on the heels of nailing 11 of their 26 (42.3%) — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after hitting 10 or more shots from behind the arc in two or more games in a row. And while the Terriers have not allowed more than 64 points in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three or more games in a row. Despite these recent results, Wofford is not a great defensive team — they rank eighth in the Southern Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Even worse for this matchup, they rank 329th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.5% of their 3-pointers — and conference rivals are nailing 37.5% of their 3s. UNC-Greensboro makes 10 shots from distance per game from 25 shots from behind the arc on average. The Terriers have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams who attempt 21 or more 3s per game — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against opponents who make eight or more shots from behind the arc per game. Wofford is a good shooting team as well — they rank 38th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.1%. They return home where they are making 50.1% of their shots including 37.9% of their 3s resulting in 82.5 PPG. The Terriers have played 15 of their last 20 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Spartans won the first meeting between these two teams by an 82-59 score as a 6-point home favorite back on January 20th — and Wofford has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (747) and the Wofford Terriers (748). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-24 |
Siena v. St. Peter's UNDER 128.5 |
Top |
53-75 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (875) and the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (876). THE SITUATION: Siena (4-20) snapped their seven-game losing streak in a 68-63 victory at Manhattan as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. Saint Peter’s (11-11) has lost four games in a row after their 64-62 loss to Fairfield as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints only made 41.5% of their shots against the Jaspers — but it was still their best shooting effort in their last four games. They had not scored more than 61 points in their previous six games — and they only topped 52 points in five of those six contests. Siena is one of the worst-scoring teams in the country. They rank 359th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 353rd of the 362 teams in Division I with an effective field goal percentage of 44.4%. To make matters worse, they turn the ball over in 24.4% of their possessions, ranking second to last in the nation — so they do not even get a shot off in one of every four possessions. The Saints have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while their game with Manhattan finished far below the 139.5 point total, they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Siena stays on the road where they are only making 41.9% of their shots and 21.9% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in just 60.0 Points-Per-Game. The Saints have played 21 of their last 29 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points including five of these last six circumstances. Saint Peter’s made 41.8% of their shots against the Stags last week which was their best shooting performance in their last six contests — they had not made more than 38.3% of their shots in their previous five games. The Peacocks rank 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 355th with an effective field goal percentage of 44.1%. But this team can play defense — they rank 98th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking second in that metric in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Critical in this matchup, they rank 24th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.4% of their opponents’ possessions — so Siena is likely to struggle to score much more than even 50 points in this one. Saint Peter’s has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference opponent. Furthermore, they have outshot their last two opponents by 11 and 14 attempts — and they played 19 of their last 21 games Under the Total after attempting at least 10 more shots from the field than their opponent in two straight games. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their last game. Uncharacteristically, they have allowed their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots from the field — but now they stay at home where they rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on their home court while limiting their guests to only 63.7 PPG. But the Peacocks’ offense is even worse at home where they rank 359th in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and with their 42.0% effective field goal percentage. Saint Peter’s makes only 37.1% of their shots including 29.9% of their 3-pointers when playing at home resulting in just 65.2 PPG. The Peacocks have played 7 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 29 of their last 44 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play at a slow pace. The Saints average 67.0 adjusted possessions per game which is below the 67.7 national average — and the 18.6 seconds per possession that average ranks 307th in the nation. The Peacocks rank 341st in the nation in both their 63.8 adjusted possessions per game and the 19.4 seconds per possession they average. These two teams played on January 28th when Saint Peter’s won by a 63-52 score as a 10-point favorite — and Siena has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (875) and the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (876). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-15-24 |
Idaho State v. Eastern Washington OVER 144.5 |
Top |
82-88 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (795) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (796). THE SITUATION: Idaho State (11-14) has won three games in a row after their 68-65 victory as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Eastern Washington (16-8) has won three in a row and 12 of their last 13 contests after their 87-79 loss to Idaho as a 14.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles are one of the best shooting teams in the country. They rank 10th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.4% — and they rank 19th in both 2-point and 3-point shooting. They should pour on the points tonight against a Bengals defense that ranks 273rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.7% ranks 332nd in the nation. Eastern Washington has scored 78 or more points in three straight games along with 177 combined points in their last two contests. The Eagles have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win at home against a Big Sky rival — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored 75 or more points. Furthermore, they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 7 straight home games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. They stay at home where they make 55.0% of their shots including 39.7% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 89.7 Points-Per-Game. Eastern Washington has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Idaho State has played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. The Bengals had covered the point spread in their four previous contests — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Idaho State goes back on the road where they have played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 13 road games Over the Total in February. They have also played 21 of their last 27 road games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. They have played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Bengals have also played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played four of their five games this season.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Eastern Washington’s 79-67 win on the road as a 5.5-point favorite on January 20th — and Idaho State has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (795) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (796). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-11-24 |
49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
22-25 |
Win
|
100 |
164 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (102) and the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs found themselves in a defensive struggle in the AFC Championship Game on the road against the Ravens — and a similar game script appears likely in the Super Bowl. The Kansas City offense only generated 319 yards despite being on the field for 37:30 minutes of that game. They generated only 4.49 Yards-Per-Play but were happy to control the time of possession by running 71 offensive plays including 32 rushing attempts. The Chiefs' lack of a vertical passing attack helped the Ravens contain big plays. Marques Valdes-Scantling was the deep threat in their previous game against Buffalo but he does not demand double teams. They used rookie Rashee Rice on some deep throws against Baltimore — but they did not connect and he is more adept as a possession receiver. However, when in the past the lack of explosive plays would frustrate quarterback Patrick Mahomes, he now seems quite comfortable grinding out first downs while not forcing the action. They have scored 20 points or less ten times this season. It helps Mahomes that he now has confidence in the Kansas City defense which is the best unit in his tenure in the NFL. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to just 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in just 16.8 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed more than 21 points only twice all season. Kansas City has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning four or more games in a row. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best in the business — and now he has two weeks to prepare for Kyle Shanahan’s offense and quarterback Brock Purdy’s tendencies. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when given two weeks of rest and preparation. The 49ers have an explosive offense that generates 396.4 total YPG and 28.9 PPG — but Kansas City has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 350 or more YPG. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. For San Francisco, there are signs that their offense is slowing down a bit. They had not scored more than 27 points in four straight games before the NFC Championship Game. They gained 413 total yards against the suspect Lions' defense — but 51 of those yards came from that lucky tipped ball from Purdy’s overthrown pass that somehow landed in the hands of wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Take away that play — and Jahmyr Gibbs' fumble on the next series that set the Niners up for a short touchdown drive — and the 49ers only score 17 points from 361 total yards. But don’t sleep on this 49ers defense that has not allowed more than 21 points in eight of their last 11 games. San Francisco only gives up 316.2 YPG when playing away from home resulting in 16.1 PPG. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. BONUS SUPER BOWL PROPS REPORT: I used the prop bets at DraftKings as a guide. I know that not everyone will have accounts with that book so please deploy the logic behind each bet to the appropriate and available prop bet at the book you are using.
BEST BET: Brandon Aiyuk Under 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings).
Our Best Bet for Super Bowl props is Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yardage for the game finishing Under the Total (-115 at DraftKings). Aiyuk is likely to be the primary defensive assignment for Kansas City cornerback L’Jarius Sneed who is one of the best in the business. Aiyuk only has 100 receiving yards in his two playoff games this season — although he did have 68 receiving yards against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. The more glaring number is that he was only targeted by Brock Purdy three times in each game — and that is not a great recipe to get 61 or more receiving yards. In his 18 games played this season, this Under wins nine times. Perhaps more importantly, this Under hits in six of Aiyuk’s nine games played away from Levi’s Stadium. In general, I am expecting a heavy run script from 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. The Chiefs' run defense is their bigger vulnerability and Shanahan has been living with the criticism of too quickly abandoning the run not only in the 2021 Super Bowl when he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons but also in their earlier loss this season to Baltimore. Furthermore, while Shanahan needs big plays, he tends to find solutions from pass plays — but I think “now or never” aspect of the Super Bowl means more of his trick plays using gadget players like Kyle Jusszczyk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery (his favorite player). Additionally, I suspect that Shanahan will be very sensitive about putting Purdy in a position to succeed in this game — and that means safer play calls, especially early in the game. Aiyuk’s primary role in this game may be as a decoy and as the magnet that draws Sneed’s attention away from where Shanahan wants the ball to go.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130 at DraftKings).
Our Top Overlay Bet that offers the most value relative to the odds is on Patrick Mahomes to throw Under 1.5 touchdown passes. Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes nine times this season — including two of his three playoff games. Furthermore, Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes in four of his last five games as well as six of his last eight contests. The focus of the offense has shifted from explosive plays when they had Tyreek Hill to now their running game behind Isaiah Pacheco. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice remain threats in the passing game — but the Niners will focus on stopping them. The lack of a great third-receiving option will help us win this prop. Getting this prop at plus money (+130) presents great value.
BONUS LONG SHOT BETS:
(1) Noah Gray anytime touchdown (+7000 at DraftKings). This one is worth a lottery ticket flyer. The lack of a third Chiefs’ receiving option does open up space for players like Gray to step up — and head coach Andy Reid loves to dial up trick plays to get guys like him involved (as he did Kadarius Toney in last year’s Super Bowl). Kansas City is playing more 12 and 13 personnel sets with two or three tight ends on the field. Gray is the second tight end on the depth chart — and he has played 58.5% of the offensive snaps in the playoffs. He has seen three or more targets in 55% of his games this season. He has two targets in the Red Zone in these playoffs. And most importantly, Mahomes trusts him — he has only one drop in his 41 targets this season.
(2) Isaiah Pacheco to win Super Bowl Most Valuable Player (+2500 at DraftKings). Pacheco has averaged 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game in his last eight games. In his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests as well. Now he faces a San Francisco defense that surrendered 108 rushing yards to Green Bay’s Aaron Jones, 93 rushing yards to Detroit’s David Montgomery, and 45 rushing yards to the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs in their last two games. The Niners are surrendering 159.0 rushing YPG in the playoffs. I expect Pacheco to feature prominently in the Chiefs’ game plan. If Kansas City wins the game and Mahomes’ passing numbers are only modest, then Pacheco becomes a prime candidate to win MVP — especially if he scores a touchdown.
Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-10-24 |
Kennesaw State v. Lipscomb OVER 169.5 |
Top |
95-101 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kennesaw State Owls (306605) and the Lipscomb Bisons (306606). THE SITUATION: Kennesaw State (13-11) has lost five games in a row after their 85-69 loss at Austin Peay as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Lipscomb (15-10) has won two games in a row after their 90-88 win against Queens University as a 7.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Owls scored their fewest points in 22 contests in their loss on Thursday. Kennesaw State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset loss against an Atlantic Sun rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The Owls rank 320th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have given up at least 85 points in five straight games. Kennesaw State has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in three straight games. They stay on the road where they are scoring 81.5 Points-Per-Game — but they are allowing their opponents to make 48.0% of their shots including 36.8% of their 3-pointers away from home which is resulting in 86.1 Points-Per-Game. Kennesaw State has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog. Lipscomb has scored 81 or more points in seven of their last nine games after nailing 52.2% of their shots on Thursday — and that was the fifth time in their last seven games that have shot 51.7% or better from the field. But the Bisons allowed the Royals to shoot 50% from the field as well which was the fifth time in their last seven games where their opponent shot 50% or better. In their last five games, their opponents are making 50.3% of their shots resulting in 81.4 PPG. Lipscomb has played 7 straight Overs after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Overs after playing at home where both teams scored at least 75 points. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total after a game where 165 or more combined points were scored. On their home court, the Bisons are making 54.8% of their shots and 42.4% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 91.9 PPG. But they are giving up 77.1 PPG when playing at home where they rank 358th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Furthermore, Lipscomb has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is approaching the 170 mark for good reasons — both of these teams struggled to play defense while Kennesaw State plays at one of the fastest paces in the nation. The Owls lead the nation by only averaging 14.0 seconds per possession. They rank sixth in the nation with 73.9 adjusted average possessions per game — and that mark rises to 76.3 adjusted possessions per game when away from home, ranking second in the nation. Lipscomb plays at above-average pace as well — so they will be happy to accommodate the fast pace given how good they are on offense. The Bisons rank 62nd in the nation by averaging 16.4 seconds per possession. They rank 108th in the nation with 69.0 adjusted possessions per game — and that mark rises to 70.6 adjusted possessions per game when they are playing at home. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kennesaw State Owls (306605) and the Lipscomb Bisons (306606). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-24 |
Blue Jackets v. Blues OVER 6.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-112 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets (61) and the St. Louis Blues (62). THE SITUATION: Columbus (15-24-10) has lost four of their last five games after their 4-2 loss at Seattle on Sunday. St. Louis (26-20-2) has won five games in a row after their 4-3 victory against Los Angeles on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blues have scored four goals in four straight games — but they have also conceded three goals in each of their last four games during their current winning streak. Since Drew Bannister took over for Craig Berube as head coach on December 13th, St, Louis has scored 2.95 Goals-Per-Game in those 19 games which is right at their 2.9 Goals-Per-Game average for the season. But they are surrounding 4.0 Goals-Per-Game since Bannister took over which is well above their 3.2 Goals-Per-Game average for the season. The Blues have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win by one goal. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win at home where they scored four or more goals. St. Louis has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring four or more goals in two or more games in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring four or more goals in four or more games in a row. Goalie Jordan Binnington has played better lately — but he has still allowed three goals in each of his last two starts. For the season, he still owns a 2.97 Goals-Against-Average and a .907 save percentage. Columbus has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss by three or more goals. The Blue Jackets have surrendered nine combined goals in their last two games — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing four or more goals in two or more games in a row. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row. Elvis Merkilins will be between the pipes for them tonight — he has a 3.86 Goals-Against-Average and a .867 save percentage in his four starts this month. In his 13 starts on the road, he has a 3.73 GAA and a .889 save percentage. Columbus has played 16 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games against teams from the Western Conference.
FINAL TAKE: The Blues have seen seven or more combined goals scored in five of six and seven of their last nine games — and the Blue Jackets have seen seven or more combined goals in four of their last seven games. Columbus won the last meeting between these two teams on December 8th — and St. Louis has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* NHL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets (61) and the St. Louis Blues (62). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-28-24 |
Chiefs v. Ravens OVER 44.5 |
Top |
17-10 |
Loss |
-105 |
38 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320) in the AFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-6) won their fourth game in a row with their 27-24 upset victory at Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (14-4) won for the seventh time in their last eight games in a 34-10 victory against Houston as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half. The defending Super Bowl champions have experimented for much of the year with their revamped wide receiver corps — and this group has been plagued by drops since the opening week of the season since playing Detroit on that opening Thursday Night game. But head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have settled on their group. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option to complement tight end Travis Kelce. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a deep threat third option. Reid has made an addition by subtraction by simply removing the human drop machine that has been Kadarius Toney from the mix all together — he is banished to the injured list. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last five games excluding the Week 17 game against Las Vegas where starters were rested, he has averaged 20.4 touches per game and 106.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 20 targets and 19 receptions in his last four contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. Kansas City has scored 25 or more points in three of the four games during their current winning streak. And while not having All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney for this game due to an injury is a big loss, they slide in the veteran backup Nick Allegretti who has plenty of experience in his five years with the team including starting in the 2021 Super Bowl. The Chiefs have played 7 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing on the road in a game where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while Kansas City has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Mahomes has only been an underdog 11 times as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback — and he has led his team to 34.6 PPG in those contests with the final score finishing Over the Total 8 times by an average of +13.9 points. Kansas City has played 17 of their last 26 road games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. The Ravens have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Baltimore earned the right to host this game by posting the best record in the AFC — and they have generated 387.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home resulting in 32.1 PPG. Tight end Mark Andrews will play in this game after being activated from the injured list. Lamar Jackson is enjoying a Most Valuable Player season — in his last four games against teams who reached the plays this year, he has 12 touchdown passes to just one interception with another 245 rushing yards on 35 carries including two more touchdowns.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these defenses are great — but both can be run on. Baltimore ranks 23rd in the league by allowing 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry — and Kansas City ranks 25th in the NFL by allowing 4.5 YPC. The Chiefs have allowed 20 or more points nine times — and the Ravens have allowed 19 or more points eight times. If both teams reach those point thresholds, the game script should ensure we reach our Over. Kansas City has played 13 of their 16 games in the Reid era Over the Total when they are an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to seven points. Finally, there is a 70% chance of rain for this game — and that helps both offenses since it slows down pass rushers in pursuit and helps mobile quarterbacks. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-24 |
Ohio v. Kent State OVER 146.5 |
Top |
71-64 |
Loss |
-116 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (877) and the Kent State Golden Flashes (878). THE SITUATION: Ohio (9-10) had their two-game losing streak snapped in a 67-58 loss at Akron as an 8-point underdog on Tuesday. Kent State (10-9) has won two of their last three games after their 90-84 upset win at Bowling Green in overtime as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bobcats only made 38.9% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. Ohio still leads the Mid-American Conference with an effective field goal percentage of 54.4% in conference play — so they should shoot better tonight. The Bobcats have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road after failing to cover the point spread. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Toal after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. It is usually the other end of the court where Ohio struggles — they rank 265th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In conference play, their opponents are nailing 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc which is the worst mark in the Mid-American Conference. Now they face a Golden Flashes squad that ranks 30th in the nation by making 37.6% of their 3-pointers — and they lead the MAC by nailing 41.0% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play. Kent State takes 22 shots from 3-point land per game — and Ohio has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams who average 21 or more shots from behind the arc per game. The Bobcats allow their opponents to make 45.3% of their shots resulting in 77.8 Points-Per-Game which is +6.5 PPG above their season average. Ohio has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing on the road. Kent State held the Falcons to just 43.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. The Golden Flashes have allowed at least 76 points in five straight games — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. Furthermore, while Kent State has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in the last seven days. They return home where they are making 48.4% of their shots resulting in 84.2 PPG which is +5.7 PPG above their season average. The Golden Flashes have played 7 straight Overs when playing on their home court. They do allow their guests to make 47.4% of their shots resulting in 72.4 PPG which is +2.8 PPG above their season average. Kent State ranks 313th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.4% — and that mark has risen to a 55.6% clip in conference play. The Golden Flashes have allowed their last five opponents to make 50.9% of their shots resulting in 80.6 PPG. Ohio shoots 45.7% from the field while taking 24 shots from behind the arc per game. Kent State has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who make 45% or more of their shots — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams who attempt 21 or more shots from behind the arc per game.
FINAL TAKE: Ohio has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Golden Flashes have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (877) and the Kent State Golden Flashes (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-24 |
Northern Colorado v. Eastern Washington OVER 161.5 |
Top |
74-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (813) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (814). THE SITUATION: Northern Colorado (11-7) has won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 90-61 win against Portland State as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Eastern Washington (11-7) has won seven straight games after their 79-67 victory as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears have scored 77 or more points in eight straight games — and they have scored 83 or more points five times during that stretch. Northern Colorado has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, the Bears have played 6 straight Overs after a win on the road against a Big Sky rival — and they have played 7 straight Overs after a win on the road after a victory on their home court. They have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while their victory against the Vikings finished Under the 158.5-point total, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Bears can score points — but they struggle on the other end of the court as they rank 302nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They go back on the road where they rank 338th in the nation by allowing their opponents to nail 39.2% of their shots from behind the arc. Northern Colorado allows their opponents to make 39.2% of their shots when away from home resulting in 84.5 Points-Per-Game. They do rank 18th in the nation by making 56.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they have a 48.1% field goal percentage on the road resulting in 81.5 PPG. The Bears have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. Eastern Washington has scored at least 79 points in each of their seven-game winning streak. The Eagles have played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a win against a Big Sky rival — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. They have also played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row against conference foes. They have covered the point spread in nine straight games — and they have then played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Eastern Washington ranks seventh in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.8%. They rank tenth in the nation by making 39.9% of their 3-pointers — and that mark rises to an incredible 54.5% clip behind the arc when playing at home which is the highest mark in the nation for home-court 3-point shooting. The Eagles make 56.8% of their shots at home resulting in 93.8 PPG. Eastern Washington has played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Northern Colorado averages eight made 3s per game — and the Eagles have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams who make eight or more 3s per game. Eastern Washington averages nine made 3s per game — and the Bears have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams who make eight or more 3s per game.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play at a fast pace. The Eagles rank 61st in the nation by averaging 16.3 seconds per possession — and they rank 76th in the country with 70.1 adjusted possessions per game. Northern Colorado is even quicker as they rank 30th in the nation by averaging 15.7 seconds per possession — and they rank 52nd in the country by averaging 71.0 adjusted possessions per game. The Bears have played 29 of their last 43 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (813) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-24-24 |
Chattanooga v. Wofford OVER 147.5 |
Top |
79-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chattanooga Mocs (695) and the Wofford Terriers (696). THE SITUATION: Chattanooga (12-7) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five after their 81-74 win at East Tennessee State as a pick ‘em on Sunday. Wofford (11-8) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 82-59 loss at UNC-Greensboro as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mocs scored at least 80 points for the eighth time this season with their victory over the weekend. Chattanooga has played 19 of their 27 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games on the road Over the Total when playing for the second time in seven days. This is a game against two teams who love to launch 3s — and both squads average 10 made 3s per game. The Mocs rank third in the nation by taking 50.7% of their shots from behind the arc. They are making 48.2% of their shots in their last five contests. They rank 82nd in the nation by making 35.2% of their 3-pointers away from home — they are scoring 77.2 Points-Per-Game overall on the road. But Chattanooga’s defense falters on the road — they are allowing their opponents to nail 45.4% of their shots away from home resulting in 80.1 PPG which is +9.6 PPG above their season average. The Mocs have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when favored on the road up to six points. They have also played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with the Total set from 145 to 149.5. Wofford has played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total against opponents who make at least 8 3-pointers per game. The Terriers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road to a Southern Conference rival — and they have played 7 straight Overs after a point spread loss. They have played 14 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in the last seven days. Wofford ranks 31st in the nation by taking 44.6% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Mocs have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total on the road against teams who average at least 8 or more 3s per game. The Terriers only made 37.7% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games and tied for the lowest shooting performance in their last 14 contests. They return home where they rank 41st in the nation by nailing 40.2% of their 3-pointers. They are nailing 49.2% of their shots at home resulting in 85.7 PPG which is +8.1 PPG above their season average. Wofford has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 8 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Defense is an issue for the Terriers who have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.2% of their shots. They also rank 330th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.9% of their 3-pointers — and their guests are nailing 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: Wofford has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chattanooga Mocs (695) and the Wofford Terriers (696). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-21-24 |
Chiefs v. Bills OVER 45.5 |
Top |
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
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At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-6) has won three games in a row after their 26-7 victory against Miami as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (12-6) has won six games in a row after their 31-17 victory against Pittsburgh as a 10-point favorite last Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Buffalo raced out to a 21-7 halftime lead against the Steelers last week — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after holding a halftime lead of 14 or more points in their last contest. The Bills have also played 30 of their last 43 home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Buffalo has held their last two opponents to just 14 and 17 points — but they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Injuries are beginning to pile up on the defensive side of the ball for the Bills. Cornerback Christian Bedford and safety Taylor Rapp are both out from a secondary that is already without cornerback Tre’Davious White from his season-ending torn ACL back early in the season. Linebacker Baylen Spector is out as well — and Terrell Bernard is questionable with an ankle injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Bernard situation is critical since he had been playing well in place of All-Pro Matt Milano who suffered a season-ending leg injury early in the season as well. The depth on defense is getting very thin for Buffalo — but their offense is clicking. Running back James Cook has 139 touches in his last seven games while averaging 5 yards per touch. Quarterback Josh Allen has added 16 touchdowns with his legs — and his willingness to take off and run adds an extra dimension to the explosiveness of their offense as evidenced by his 52-yard touchdown run last week. The Bills are generating 372.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 29.7 Points-Per-Game at home. Buffalo has played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when favored by up to seven points. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. And while the Chiefs have held their last two opponents to seven and six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 23 of their last 33 road games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Chiefs' offense will have a little extra juice now in the postseason since Patrick Mahomes will be more willing to run for first downs — he ran for 41 yards last week against the Dolphins. But the defense will not be at full strength with nose tackle Derrick Nnadi out with a tricep injury and linebacker William Gay questionable with a neck issue. Kansas City goes back on the road where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with the Total set from 42.5 to 49.5.
FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the playoffs. 25* NFL Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-20-24 |
Packers v. 49ers OVER 50 |
Top |
21-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 1 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (10-8) has won four games in a row after their 48-32 upset win at Dallas as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (12-5) has lost two of their last three contests after their 21-20 upset loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite back on January 7th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers' offense has blossomed in the second half of the season with the light having turned on for Jordan Love and his understanding of head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense. Love was forcing the ball earlier in the season — but perhaps the midseason injury to wide receiver Christian Watson was a blessing in disguise since it helped coax him to rely on simply feeding the ball to the open receiver. With rookies Jaylen Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft along with second-year pros Romeo Doubs and Watson, the Packers have one of the best groups of wide receivers and tight ends in the league. Love has thrown 21 touchdown passes with only one interception in his last nine games. The play-action passing attack has been devastating — Green Bay leads the NFL in total offense and third down offense in the last month. They have scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games while generating 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game with the offense gaining at least 415 yards in each contest. Credit goes to LaFleur who finally is seeing the true vision of his offense unleashed after having to make compromise after compromise previously with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after pulling off an upset win. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points — and they have played 6 straight Overs after averaging at least 375 YPG in their last three games. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 straight Overs on the road against fellow NFC rivals. They have also played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Green Bay should be able to move the ball against this 49ers defense that has some weaknesses. The Niners' pass defense is not nearly as good since the season-ending injury to safety Talanga Hufanga in mid-November. San Francisco ranks 21st in the NFL by allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes — and they are just middle of the pack ranking 13th in the league by giving up 214.2 passing YPG. In a four-game stretch from December 3rd through December 25th, the 49ers allowed 246 passing YPG with opponents exposing their pass defense. Teams can also run on the Niners — they rank 14th in the league by allowing opposing rushers to average 4.1 Yards-Per-Carry. But the Packers are vulnerable on defense as well. They rank 28th in the league by giving up 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Green Bay secondary is also vulnerable— Dak Prescott passed for 387 yards against them last week leading Dallas to a whopping 510 total yards in a losing effort. The Packers are surrendering 364.5 total YPG when playing on the road — and here comes this explosive 49ers offense that scores 28.9 PPG and generates 424.1 YPG when playing at home. San Francisco is healthy, rested, and ready for this game on offense — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 5 of their 8 games at home this season Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5-9.5 points. The Packers generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and the Niners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. And in Green Bay’s last 37 road games against teams who allow their opponents to complete 64% or more of their passes, they have played 25 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: I don’t think these conditions warrant getting off the Over (nor taking the Under) — and the oddsmakers have not adjusted the line so I remain comfortable with the Over. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and the 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-15-24 |
Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
9-32 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (11-6) limps into the postseason having lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 27-10 upset loss in New York against the Giants as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (9-8) has won five of their last six games after their 9-0 win at Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles managed only 299 yards last week in their loss to the Giants. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a finger injury — and he will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown who is out with a knee injury. With running back D’Andre Swift returning to action tonight after he was out with an injury — look for the Eagles to lean heavily on him and their rushing attack to keep their defense off the field. Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points to an NFC East rival. The Eagles' defense has been a civ lately after giving up at least 25 points in three straight games. Philadelphia has played 34 of their last 53 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two or more games in a row including four of those last five circumstances. After giving up 449 yards to Arizona two weeks ago, they surrendered 415 total yards last week against the Giants — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. On the road, the Philly defense has played better as they have held their home hosts to 329.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 21.4 Points-Per-Game. But the Eagles are scoring only 20.7 PPG on the road. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Tampa Bay has played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They return home where they are generating 317.1 total YPG resulting in 17.6 PPG — but they are holding their guests to just 324.4 total YPG and 17.1 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. They have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Eagles have played 5 straight Unders in January. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-15-24 |
Steelers v. Bills UNDER 39 |
Top |
17-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
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At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) has won three games in a row after their 17-10 win at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (11-6) has won five games in a row after their 21-14 victory at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The weather is much better in Buffalo this afternoon than it was 24 hours ago — but the cold weather will still play a role in this game. Temperatures will be in the 16-18 degree range with winds up to 15 miles per hour. These are not ideal conditions for the passing game — and that will impact the vertical passing game that has helped Mason Rudolph have success. He completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards in the victory against the Ravens. With passing and catching the ball more difficult, the Bills can focus on stopping the Steelers' ground game. While Pittsburgh has averaged 26 Points-Per-Game with Rudolph as their starting quarterback, this remains a team that is generating only 312.6 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 17.4 PPG away from home. The Steelers have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 15 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total after a win against an AFC North rival. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 8 games after a point spread win, Pittsburgh has played 7 of these games Under the Total. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Buffalo has evolved into a run-first team that wants to control time of possession to slow the game down. They had the ball for 38:07 minutes last week while gaining 26 first downs against the Dolphins last Sunday night. The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes and at least 24 first downs. Josh Allen completed 30 of his 38 passes for 359 yards in that game — and Buffalo has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 300 or more passing yards. And while they averaged 6.39 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They return home where they are holding their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 274.5 total YPG. The Bills have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC rivals — and they have played 7 straight Unders against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-14-24 |
Rams v. Lions OVER 51.5 |
Top |
23-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-7) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 21-20 upset win at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 30-20 win against Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams’ offense has emerged as one of the most dynamic in the league in the second half of the season — with the key ingredient being that unit finally being healthy and at full strength. Wide receiver Cooper Kipp missed the first five games due to injury — but that opened up space for rookie Puka Nacua to emerge as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate by catching 105 passes this season. The former BYU wideout is the real deal — and he remained a significant threat to opposing defenses even when Kupp returned to the field. Injuries at running back gave second-year pro Kyren Williams an opportunity of which he took full advantage. He rushed for 1144 yards on 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The former Notre Dame star has averaged 26 touches per game in his last four contests. Quarterback Matthew Stafford missed two games midseason as well — but the offense began to purr when all four of these players were healthy and together in the second half of the season. The Rams scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last six games which Stafford started while scoring at least 26 points in each of those contests. Furthermore, Los Angeles scored 30 or more points in four of those games — and they scored at least 36 points in three of those contests. Stafford will be rested and ready after getting last week off with their playoff positioning locked in place. The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning two games in a row while playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total. They face a Lions team that has been much better at stopping the run after the return of defensive tackle Alim McNeill from injury. Detroit has held their last four opponents to just 62 rushing Yards-Per-Game with none of those four opponents rushing for more than 83 yards. I suspect the game script for the Rams will be to rely on Stafford’s arm to win this game — and he should have success against suspect Detroit pass defense that has allowed 352 passing YPG and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in their last three games. The Lions have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three or more games in a row. They stay at home where they are generating 408.8 total YPG resulting in 30.5 PPG. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after suffering a bad knee injury last week, it looks like rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be able to play tonight with the use of a brace.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-13-24 |
Pepperdine v. San Diego OVER 150.5 |
Top |
83-77 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
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At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Wave (793) and the San Diego Toreros (794). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (8-10) snapped their two-game with a 93-78 victory against Pacific as a 12.5-point favorite on Thursday. San Diego (10-8) has lost three games in a row after their 83-63 loss at home to San Francisco as a 10-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wave was never a good defensive team this season — and they are getting crushed on that end of the court now that conference play has started. Pepperdine has allowed at least 78 points in each of their last three games in conference action — and West Coast Conference opponents are nailing 51.5% of their shots resulting in 80.7 Points-Per-Game. The Wave ranks 252nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 333rd in the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 54.2%. Their biggest weakness is defending the perimeter as their opponents are making 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 336th in the nation. Pepperdine has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in their last game — and they have played 32 of their last 49 games Over the Total on the road after allowing 75 or more points in three straight contests. The Wave have also played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home where they scored 85 or more points. Pepperdine can score with points — Michael Ajayi leads the WCC in scoring while Houston Mallet has potential NBA talent. The Wave is making 45.6% of their shots in conference play resulting in a respectable 75.6 PPG. But now they go back on the road where their home hosts make 54.6% of their shots including 36.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 85.3 PPG. Pepperdine has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total on the road. They have also played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total in conference play. San Diego has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a conference rival — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss at home by double-digits. The Toreros have allowed their last three opponents to make 51.7% or more of their shots — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing two straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. San Diego is not a great defensive team either — they rank 169th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and they are perhaps now getting exposed in conference play. In their first three games against West Coast Conference rivals, they are allowing them to make 53.9% of their shots resulting in 88.3 PPG. The Toreros play in high-possession games as well — they rank 41st in the nation with 72.1 adjusted possessions per game. Their opponents only average 16.1 seconds per possession with the ball which is the sixth quickest in the nation. San Diego is scoring 73.4 PPG at home — and they should be able to make 3-pointers against this Waves perimeter defense since they rank 112th in the nation by making 35.1% of their shots from behind the arc. The Toreros have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego won both meetings last season with both games seeing 165 and 181 combined points scored. Pepperdine has played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Wave (793) and the San Diego Toreros (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-13-24 |
Dolphins v. Chiefs UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
7-26 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-6) is on a two-game losing streak after their 21-14 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (11-6) enters the playoffs on a two-game winning streak after their 13-12 upset win as a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins did not score in the second half with their offense only generating 275 total yards last Sunday night. Now the weather conditions in Kansas City tonight are perhaps the worst nightmare for head coach Mike McDaniel for his offensive game plan. The temperatures will be below freezing level at kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it is 30 degrees below zero (or worse). The winds will be high and relentless which will impact Tua Tagovailoa’s passing. McDaniel is optimistic that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert can return to action tonight after missing the last two games — but even if they can make a go of it, their effectiveness remains a question especially in the freezing temperatures. The defense did have a bend-but-don’t-break mentality last week after holding the Bills to just 14 points from the offense — Buffalo scored one of their touchdowns on a 96-yard punt return. Miami did allow 473 total yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Kansas City has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. The Chiefs’ outstanding defense that gives up only 269.9 YPG resulting in 16.8 PPG. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. But the Chiefs are scoring only 21.8 PPG this season — with that number only rising by +1.2 PPG to 23.0 PPG when playing at home. The offense has struggled with unreliable play at wide receiver — and the ice-cold conditions will not help resolve their case with the dropsies.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 victory against the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite in a game where Miami only generated 292 total yards even with Mostert and Waddle with the offense at full strength. Kansas City only managed 267 total yards in that game as well after not scoring in the second half. Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-01-24 |
Texas v. Washington UNDER 64.5 |
Top |
31-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282) in the Sugar Bowl and Semifinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Texas (12-1) has won seven games in a row after their 49-21 victory against Oklahoma State as a 14.5-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 2nd. Washington (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-31 upset victory against Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 1st. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Many pundits expect this contest to be a high-scoring game — but there are clues from when these teams played in the Alamo Bowl that suggest this will be lower-scoring than expected. Despite these two teams each gaining at least 420 yards and combining for 865 total yards of offense, only 47 combined points were scored in Washington’s 27-20 victory. Texas could not run the ball against the Huskies’ defensive front as they only gained 51 yards on 18 carries as the offense became one-dimensional. The Longhorns were committed to limiting the explosiveness of the Washington passing attack so they played a quarters scheme in their secondary which stymied quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. to just one completion of 20 or more air yards. The Huskies moved the ball methodically with Penix completing all 11 of his screen passes to wide receivers and the ground game gobbling up 158 yards on 28 carries. Washington controlled time of possession by having the ball for 35:46 minutes of that game to keep Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers off the field. The Huskies deployed a similar strategy against the Ducks last month as their offense was on the field for 37:08 minutes of that game — and that helped them limit the explosive Oregon offense to just 17 first downs and only 363 total yards. Washington’s defense looks ugly when it comes to the advanced metrics — but they did only allow 23.6 Points-Per-Game this season. That unit played better later in the season once they started getting healthier — I think this is an underrated unit. The Huskies have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a victory against a Pac-12 rival by seven points or less. And while their win against Oregon was preceded by a narrow 24-21 victory against Washington State in the Apple Cup, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against conference rivals by seven points or less. Additionally, Washington has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road on field turf. And while the Longhorns score 36.2 PPG, the Huskies have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who score 34 or more PPG. Washington generates 470.4 total YPG — but Texas has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who average 450 or more YPG. The Longhorns have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. Ewers passed for 452 yards against the Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game — but Texas has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for 325 or more yards in their last contest. The Longhorns have scored 106 combined points in their last two games while gaining 662 and 528 yards in those contests — but they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining 31 or more points in two straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards of offense in two games in a row. Despite these dynamic offensive numbers, there are some concerns underneath the hood. Texas ranks 121st in the country in Red Zone Touchdown Rate — and they are only 72nd in the country in Finishing Drives. Long possessions that end in field goals ruin Overs when the Total is set in the 60s or higher. Ewers only averages 7.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game which is the lowest of the four quarterbacks playing in the semifinals — and his Total QBR ranking of 15th in the nation is also the lowest of the final four QBs. The Longhorns rank 89th in the nation in Explosiveness in the passing game. On the other side of the line of scrimmage, Texas boasts an elite run defense led by their two anchors on the defensive line, T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II. They only allow 80.8 rushing YPG so the Huskies may struggle to match their rushing numbers from the Alamo Bowl last year. The Longhorns have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a bye week.
FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams play at a blindingly fast pace. Red Zone stops, limited explosiveness, and both teams working the Time of Possession battle is a great recipe for a lower-than-expected combined score. Texas has played 8 of their 12 games Under the Total when favored — and Washington has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-23 |
Packers v. Vikings OVER 42 |
Top |
33-10 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (7-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 win at Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (7-8) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after a 30-24 loss to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers surrendered 394 total yards to the woeful Panthers offense last week. Green Bay’s defense is trending in the wrong direction — they have surrendered 404.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 29.3 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. They have also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for 270 passing YPG with a 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have played 6 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win by six points or less. They have given up 64 combined points in their last two contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two games in a row. Additionally, Green Bay has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. The Packers have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog. The Vikings are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70% of their passes — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores will dial up plenty of blitzes tonight — but Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love has had success this season against the blitz. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in December. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in December. The Vikings have played 6 straight Overs when playing at home after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Minnesota’s offense stalled a few weeks ago when the book got out on quarterback Josh Dobbs. Head coach Kevin O’Connell benched him for Nick Mullens who was able to move the ball but threw too many interceptions. The Vikings gained 390 net yards last week against the Lions with Mullens throwing for 411 yards — but he threw four interceptions. O’Connell turns back to rookie Jaren Hall who has looked good in limited action. Remember, Hall was the second-string QB behind Kirk Cousins and the first to take over under center after the veteran’s season-ending injury. But Hall suffered a concussion which kept him out until now. In two games this season, the former BYU quarterback has completed 8 of 10 passes for 101 yards with an 8.0 YPA average and no interceptions. And while he will not have tight end T.J. Hockensen who suffered a season-ending injury, wide receiver Justin Jefferson is back — and rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison will take the field after missing practice this week. Minnesota stays at home where they have played 6 straight Overs in December — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. The Packers allow their opponents to complete 65.9% of their passes and generate 352.0 total YPG — and the Vikings have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow 350 or more YPG. Minnesota has also played 32 of their last 46 games Over the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 loss at home to Minnesota on October 29th. The Packers have played 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge — and they have played 4 straight Overs when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-23 |
Toledo v. Wyoming UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
15-16 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (271) and the Wyoming Cowboys (272) in the Arizona Bowl. THE SITUATION: Toledo (11-2) had their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 23-14 loss to Miami (OH) as a 6.5-point favorite in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. Wyoming (8-4) has won two games in a row after their 42-6 victory at Nevada as an 11-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at the Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets will be without their top two offensive players in this game after both starting quarterback DeQuan Finn and running back Peny Boone entered the transfer portal. Finn was the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year while Boone rushed for 1400 yards on 7.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Their losses are significant. As it is, while Toledo generated 428.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 33.6 Points-Per-Game, those drop to 399.3 YPG and 25.9 PPG when they are playing away from home. The Rockets have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Toledo has a tough defense that held their opponents to just 329.7 total YPG and 20.6 PPG. Cornerback Quinyon Mitchell is expected to opt-put — but the Rockets' secondary is loaded with experience and talent led by safety Maxen Hook who is a two-time All-MAC award winner. Toledo has only forced one turnover in their last three games — but they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in three straight games. They have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in their last game. Wyoming held the Wolf Pack to just 201 yards in their most recent game. The Cowboys held their opponents to only 22.9 PPG this season. Wyoming has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they limited Nevada to just 3.65 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 4 straight Unders after holding their last opponent to 4.0 or fewer YPP. They outgained the Wolf Pack by +208 net yards — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after outgaining their previous opponent by +225 or more YPG. The Cowboys have only given up 85 total rushing yards in their last two games — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. With this being head coach Craig Bohl’s final game with the team before his retirement, a spirited effort is expected. But the offensive side of the ball has faced some turmoil after offensive coordinator Tim Polasek left to take the head coaching job at North Dakota State. In their five games away from home, the Cowboys generated only 286.6 total YPG resulting in just 20.0 PPG. Wyoming has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Toledo is outscoring their opponents by +13.0 PPG — and the Cowboys have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. The Rockets have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total against opponents winning 60-75% of their games. 25* CFB Group of Five Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (271) and the Wyoming Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-23 |
Washington State v. Utah UNDER 144.5 |
Top |
58-80 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (871) and the Utah Utes (872). THE SITUATION: Washington State (9-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 66-61 victory against Boise State as a 2.5-point favorite on December 21st. Utah (9-2) has won six games in a row with their 85-43 win against Bellarmine as a 20.5-point favorite on December 20th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars have played 18 of their last 22 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They play stout defense for head coach Kyle Smith — they are holding their opponents to 37.3% shooting resulting in 62.5 Points-Per-Game. Washington State will slow this game down — they average 17.3 seconds per possession, ranking 179th in Adjusted Pace while their opponents take 18.0 seconds per possession, ranking 302nd in Adjusted Pace. The Cougars rank fifth in the nation in Opponent’s Effective Field Goal Percentage of 42.5% — and they rank in the top-19 in the country in opponent 3-point shooting and 2-point shooting. They also rank 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 23.7% of their missed shots. And their block rate of 15.5% of their opponent’s shot attempts ranks 12th in the country. Washington State has been a bit unlucky with their opponents’ free throws as well — their opponents have made 76.5% of their shots at the charity stripe, ranking 342nd in the nation. The Utes only make 71.3% of their free throws, so the Cougars should get some points back in that area tonight. Overall, Washington State ranks 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rise to 24th in the nation in that metric when playing away from home with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark of 93.8. But while the Cougars rank 89th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they drop to 197th in that category when away from home with a 101.6 efficiency mark. The 67.2 PPG they score away from home is a -10.2 net PPG drop from their overall average. Washington State has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Utah has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They rank 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they drop by -1.6 adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing at home where they rank 56th in the nation. But the Utes are holding their opponents to 37.8% shooting resulting in 63.2 PPG with their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking 38th in the nation — and that ranking improving to 20th in the country with that mark lowering to 89.8. Utah ranks eighth in the nation in Opponent’s Free Throw Rate. The Utes have held their last three opponents to no better than 37.5% shooting — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing three straight opponents to shoot better than 40%.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Washington State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (871) and the Utah Utes (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-23 |
Blue Jackets v. Devils OVER 6.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets (35) and the New Jersey Devils (36). THE SITUATION: Columbus (11-18-6) has lost two games in a row after their 4-1 loss to Toronto on Saturday. New Jersey (17-13-2) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 3-2 victory against Detroit on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jackets defense is a disaster — they have allowed at least three goals in six straight games with five of those six opponents scoring at least four goals. But Columbus has generated 4.2 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. The Blue Jackets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss by three or more goals. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four contests. They go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. Columbus will have Elvis Merzlikins between the pipes tonight — but it has been a struggle given his 3.57 Goals-Against-Average and a .897 save percentage in ten starts on the road. New Jersey is a potent scoring team with lots of depth — they have eight players with at least seven goals this season. Jack Hughes leads the way with 14 goals and 38 points in 26 games. Jesper Bratt has added 13 goals and 37 points in his 31 games. The Devils are generating 3.4 Goals-Per-Game. The reason why they are underachieving is their defense and goaltending. New Jersey ranks 30th in the NHL by allowing 3.61 Goals-Per-Game. The Devils have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after winning their previous game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win at home. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by just one goal. And in their last six games when playing with three or more days of rest, New Jersey has played 5 of these games Over the Total. They stay at home where they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. Vitek Vanecek gets the nod as their goaltender tonight — he has a rough 3.38 GAA and a .880 save percentage in his 13 games (11 starts) at home this season.
FINAL TAKE: The Devils won the last meeting between these teams back on December 16th in Columbus by a 6-3 score — and the Blue Jackets have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets (35) and the New Jersey Devils (36). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-23 |
Kansas v. UNLV OVER 64.5 |
Top |
49-36 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (239) and the UNLV Rebels (240) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-16 victory at Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite on November 25th. UNLV (9-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-20 loss at home to Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jayhawks generated 562 total yards against the Bearcats — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 475 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a double-digit win against a Big 12 conference rival — and they have played 6 straight Overs after losing two of their last three games. The program did lose offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left the for same job at Penn State — so head coach Lance Leipold elevated quarterbacks coach Jim Zebrowski was elevated to co-offensive coordinator and veteran OC Jeff Grimes was already hired to be the new offensive coordinator and will coach this game. Quarterback Jason Bean will lead an offense that ranks ninth in Pass Success Rate. Bean joins running back Devin Neal to form an explosive rushing attack that ranks 17th in Rushing Success Rate. By deploying plenty of counter schemes, Kansas sees 25% of their rushing plays go for at least 12 yards. But the Jayhawks give up their share of points — when playing away from home, their opponents are generating 430.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 28.0 Points-Per-Game. One of their problems is they do not stop drives by forcing turnovers — they have not forced more than one turnover in four straight games. Kansas has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in two straight games. And in their last 33 games after not forcing more than one turnover in three straight games, they played 23 of those games Over the Total. UNLV has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss to a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a conference opponent. They have also played 39 of their last 60 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row to a conference opponent. Operating the GoGo offense under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, the Rebels are generating 425.0 YPG and 34.7 PPG when playing on the road. The GoGo approach operates without a huddle with heavy pre-snap motions while deploying almost every formation imaginable to confuse their opponents. But the UNLV defense is vulnerable as they have given up 477.0 YPG and 36.0 PPG in their last three contests. They rank 126th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. The Rebels allowed 8.24 Yards-Per-Play to the Broncos in the MWC Championship Game — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after allowing 7.25 or more YPP in their last contest. That game against Boise State finished Over the 62.5-point Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: UNLV has scored 31 or more points in nine of their games — and Kansas has scored 31 or more points in eight of their contests. The Jayhawks have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total when getting at least two weeks of rest and preparation. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (239) and the UNLV Rebels (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-23 |
Mavs v. Suns OVER 237.5 |
Top |
128-114 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). THE SITUATION: Dallas (17-12) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 144-119 victory against San Antonio as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Phoenix (14-14) has lost four of their last five games after their 120-105 loss at Sacramento as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was just a few years ago when I was grappling with Golden State games on Christmas Day where the Total reached the rarified air of 230 or higher. Now four of the five games today have Totals set at 235 or higher. Some observers think this is a result of the ever-improving skill set of the players. It’s not. More 3-point shooting combined with more teams playing at a faster pace has contributed to the higher-scoring games — but the key ingredient for these big totals remains the lack of effort on defense. The nightcap tonight features two teams who consider defense an afterthought. Dallas ranks 23rd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 50.8% of their shots resulting in 122.2 Points-Per-Game. Led by Luka Doncic who may be enjoying his best season yet in his career, the Mavericks are scoring 119.0 PPG themselves this season. They did hold the woeful Spurs to 44.9% shooting two days ago which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 8 games after a double-digit victory, the Mavericks have played 6 of these games Over the Total. Dallas is dealing with several injuries impacting their depth. Kyrie Irving has been out since December 8th with a foot injury. The team has been without rookie Derrick Lively II as well with an ankle injury — and his absence has taken away their best rim protector. He is listed as questionable to possibly return to action tonight (I like the Over even if he plays, FYI). Now the Mavericks go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road when the Total is set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, Dallas has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. Phoenix only made 44.3% of their shots on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. The Suns have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. And while their loss to the Kings finished far below the 244-point total, they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their previous contest. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Phoenix returns home where they are making 48.7 of their shots resulting in 116.9 PPG. The Suns have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored. Phoenix is dealing with injuries as well. Bradley Beal is once again out with his back issues. Jusuf Nurkic is out for personal reasons as well leaving the team without their best rim protector. As it is, the Suns rank just 17 in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.6% of their shots resulting in 118.4 PPG. Led by Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, this team is not doing much besides putting up scoring points while drastically underachieving their preseason expectations. Phoenix has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas is allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots —and the Suns have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total against teams with opponent field goal percentages of 46% or higher. And while Phoenix has a defensive field goal percentage of 46.3%, the Mavericks have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make 46% or more of their shots. 25* NBA Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-23 |
Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 38.5 |
Top |
11-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (8-6) has won three games in a row after their 27-24 win in overtime as a 3-point favorite against Minnesota last Saturday. Pittsburgh (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 30-13 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a victory by three points or less at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while quarterback Jake Browning has led his team to at least 27 points in three straight games, Cincinnati has played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Browning has played far above expectations after not throwing a pass in a regular season game in his first two seasons with the Bengals. But now the Steelers have four games of tape on him to study his tendencies running the Cincinnati offense — and that includes their first-hand experience against him on November 26th when Pittsburgh won on the road by a 16-10 score while holding the Bengals to just 222 total yards. To compound matters for Browning, he will be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase who suffered a shoulder injury last week which will keep him out of this game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road having played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a two-game home stand. As it is, Cincinnati is generating only 316.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. The Bengals have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. The Steelers have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 11 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing two more Overs in a row. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as an underdog. After gaining 421 total yards in their first game after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was let go (in their victory against the Bengals last month), the Steelers' offense has reverted to its lackluster form as they have gained only 265.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 13.7 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has not scored more than 18 points in five straight games — and now head coach Mike Tomlin turns to third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph under center with Mitch Trubisky ineffective and Kenny Pickett still injured. But if there is a bright side during the Steelers’ three-game losing streak, it is that they have held those three opponents to just 185 passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Cincinnati has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-23 |
Saints v. Rams UNDER 46 |
Top |
22-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: The New Orleans Saints (7-7) have won two games in a row after their 24-6 victory against the New York Giants as a 6.5-pint favorite last Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams (7-7) have won four of their last five games after their 28-20 victory against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints held the Giants to just 193 yards in their win on Sunday. New Orleans has an underappreciated defense that is holding their opponents to 311.9 total Yards-Per-Game and 19.7 Points-Per-Game — both those marks rank sixth best in the NFL. They also rank fourth in the league by holding their opponents to just a 34% success rate on third downs. The Saints have held their last three opponents to only 281.0 total YPG resulting in just 15.0 PPG. New Orleans has played 6 straight Unders after holding their last opponent to under ten points. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Saints have played two straight Unders — and not only have them played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game, they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. The problem for this team is that they managed only 296 total yards in beating the Giants last week. New Orleans is generating only 288.3 total YPG in their last three contests. Now they go on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 312.4 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. The Saints have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles held the Commanders to just 297 total yards in their win last week. The Rams have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. The Los Angeles offense has generated 418.9 total YPG in their last three games — and they have gained at least 399 yards in four straight contests. But the Rams have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles has also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. The Rams are only scoring 23.0 PPG at home at SoFi Stadium — but they are holding their guests to 20.1 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 9 straight Unders in the final four weeks of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-17-23 |
Ravens v. Jaguars UNDER 44 |
Top |
23-7 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-3) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 37-31 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 31-27 loss at Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While Lamar Jackson gets most of the attention, it is the Ravens' defense that has led the way for them this season. The Baltimore defense ranks second in the league in efficiency according to the DVOAS metrics at the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is dialing up impressive schemes that have generated 49 combined sacks from 15 different players and each position group. The Ravens have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning their last game by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Additionally, Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win where they scored 31 or more points — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Ravens go back on the road where they are holding their opponents to 259.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 15.7 Points-Per-Game. But while Baltimore generates 372.5 total YPG and 27.8 PPG on the season, those numbers plummet to just 23.3 PPG and 339.2 YPG in their six games on the road. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Jacksonville managed only 293 total yards last week in their loss a Cleveland. Now they return home where they are generating 315.7 total YPG resulting ing 21.8 PPG — those are drops by -2.2 PPG and -27.0 YPG from their season averages. The Jaguars have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored.
FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and Baltimore has played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-23 |
Lakers v. Spurs OVER 233.5 |
Top |
115-129 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (16-10) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 122-119 victory at San Antonio against the Spurs as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. San Antonio (3-20) has lost 18 games in a row after that setback.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lakers made 53.8% of their shots on Wednesday despite LeBron James taking the night off with his nagging left calf issue. James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable tonight — but I suspect both will play tonight (and I was skeptical about James playing on Wednesday). James and Davis are listed as questionable for most games as a way to soft-play load management. With this game on national television (ESPN) in an opportunity to pad some stats, both stars have incentives to play. Perhaps this game against the lowly Spurs is an opportunity for Davis to get the night off (with James returning to action) — and that only helps our Over play since Davis is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. The Lakers are clicking on offense with an attack that lives in transition and thrives at the rim. Los Angeles is second in the NBA in shot frequency at the rim where they are then making 70.2% of their shots — and they lead the NBA in transition possessions. In their last five games, the Lakers are nailing 50.2% of their shots which results in 121.8 Points-Per-Game. LA has made at least 53.4% of their shots in their last four contests — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in three or more games in a row. They have played 23 of their last 30 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six contests. This is Los Angeles’ third game on the road since Tuesday — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when playing for the third time in their last four games. They stay on the road where they are making 49.4% of their shots which results in 115.1 PPG — but they are allowing their home hosts to make 46.2% of their shots and 117.2 PPG. The Lakers have not engaged with as much urgency lately in games outside the In-Season Tournament on the defensive end of the court lately. Their last five opponents are making 44.1% of their shots from behind the arc -- and they rank 23rd in transition defense during that span. San Antonio has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Spurs allowed the Lakers to score 62 points in the paint — they rank 26th in the league by allowing their opponents to make 67.9% of their shots within four feet. They also are turning the ball over too much as head coach Greg Popovich continues to audition second-year forward Jeremy Sochan as their point guard. San Antonio ranks 26th in the NBA by turning the ball over in 15.9% of their possessions — and those miscues will create more scoring opportunities for the Lakers in transition. The Spurs stay at home where they are making 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc as opposed to their 31.2% shooting from 3-point range when on the road. They raise their shooting percentage by +1.7% when playing at home with a 46.9% mark — and the 114.9 PPG scoring average at home is an improvement of +5.1 points versus their season average. But San Antonio also allowed 122.3 PPG at home which is a +0.9 rise over their season average as well. The Spurs have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 32 of their last 48 home games Over the Total at home as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio has played 30 of their last 48 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their 5 games Over the Total this season against teams winning 60-70% of their games. The Lakers have played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Finally, the Spurs have played 41 of their last 68 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-11-23 |
Packers v. Giants UNDER 37 |
Top |
22-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the New York Giants (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-6) has pulled off three straight upset victories after their 27-19 win against Kansas City as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. New York (4-8) has pulled off two straight upset wins after their 10-7 victory against New England as a 3.5-point underdog back on November 26th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants held the Patriots to just 283 total yards in pulling that upset two weeks ago. After getting torched by Las Vegas and Dallas, the New York defense has allowed only 26 combined points in their last two games. They have held five of their last seven opponents to under 20 points — and they have had an extra week to prepare against Jordan Love and this Packers offense. But the Giants managed only 220 total yards against New England last week — and in their last three games, they are generating just 228.0 total Yards-Per-Game. In their last four games, they are scoring just 16.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have scored more than 17 points only once in their last ten games. New York has played 36 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after a win at home by three points or less. They have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And in their last 56 games after holding their previous opponent to less than 10 points, they have played 39 of those games Under the Total. They do stay at home for this one where they are generating just 237.8 total YPG which is resulting in a mere 7.4 PPG — but they are holding their guests to 270.6 total YPG and only 18.2 PPG. The Giants have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total at home. Green Bay held the Chiefs offense to just 337 total yards of offense in their victory last week. The Packers are ninth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.5 PPG. Linebacker Rashan Gary is becoming a superstar in the league — he has 9.5 sacks this season with 4.5 of them coming in the last three weeks. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. They have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Packers' three straight victories have coincided with them winning the turnover battle in all three games. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after two straight games where they won the turnover battle — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning the turnover battle for three straight contests. And while they have scored 56 combined points in two straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Now they go back on the road where they are only generating 324.2 total YPG which is resulting in 23.3 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Giants have played 13 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the New York Giants (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-10-23 |
Michigan v. Iowa OVER 158 |
Top |
90-80 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (855) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (856). THE SITUATION: Michigan (4-5) has lost three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after a 78-75 upset loss at home to Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Iowa (5-4) has lost two games in a row after their 90-65 loss at Iowa State as an 8-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After opening the season by playing good team defense, the play on that end of the court has fallen apart for the Wolverines. After the Hoosiers made 51.7 of their shots against them, Michigan has allowed four of their last six opponents to make at least 50.0% of their shots. Their last five opponents are making 48.0% of their shots which is resulting in 77.2 Points-Per-Game. The Wolverines rank 131st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The weakest link has been their perimeter defense as their opponents are nailing 39.2% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 349th in the nation. Michigan has remained competitive in most of their games because of their balanced offensive attack. They rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency based on their balanced scoring attack — they rank 18th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.7%. They are making 49.1% of their shots including 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc to generate 81.2 PPG. The Wolverines have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. And while this is Michigan’s second game since last Saturday, they have played 28 of their latest 39 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in seven days. Iowa only made 38.6% of their shots against the Cyclones — and that was on the heels of their 38.5% shooting effort at Purdue in their previous game. The Cyclones have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. And while Iowa State has not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. They return home where they are making 51.1% of their shots including 39.2% of their 3-pointers which is resulting in 99.7 PPG. Facing the porous Wolverines' defense may be just what the doctor ordered for this Hawkeyes team that ranks 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But Iowa struggles on the other end of the court where they rank 147th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.7% of their shots which has resulted in those five opponents to average 81.2 PPG. The Hawkeyes have played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total after a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa has played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total in Big Ten play — and Michigan has played 30 of their last 42 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (855) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (856). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-03-23 |
Colts v. Titans UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
31-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-5) has won three games in a row after their 27-20 victory against Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (4-7) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 17-10 victory against Carolina as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts held the Buccaneers to just 298 yards last week as they continue to play very good defense. Through Week Eight of the season, Indianapolis was giving up 371 Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 28 Points-Per-Game. Since Week Nine in their three games (including their bye week), they have held their last three opponents to just 304.3 YPG and 13.0 PPG — and none of those opponents scored more than 20 points. They have risen to 11th in the NFL in the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now located at FTN). Digging deeper into those numbers, through the first eight weeks of the season they were allowing 247 passing YPG and their opponents were scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone at a 64% clip. Since then, they are giving up only 161 passing YPG — and their opponents are scoring touchdowns in just 22% of their trips inside the Red Zone. The Colts defense is doing a great job in forcing turnovers — they have forced at least one turnover in 16 straight games and they have eight takeaways in their last four contests. Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Now they face a Titans team generating only 284.0 total YPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are not averaging more than 285 YPG. Gardner Minshew has been steady under center for this team replacing the injured Anthony Richardson — but this is the Colts' just second true road game in their last six contests after one of their technical road games was in Germany. They are generating just 299.2 total YPG on the road which is resulting in 22.0 PPG. Indianapolis has played 5 straight road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored. They will be without running back Jonathan Taylor who is nursing a thumb injury. Minshew has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last 87 throws. Tennessee only managed 264 total yards last week — but they did hold the Panthers to just 258 yards of offense in their victory. Since making a big splash in his professional debut against Atlanta at the end of October, rookie quarterback Will Levis has been only okay since. He has only thrown two touchdown passes in his last four starts — and he is completing under 60% of his passes. Running back Derrick Henry appears to have lost a step or two. The Titans are averaging only 103 rushing YPG this season which ranks 21st in the league and is the lowest number for this team since 2015. Tennessee has scored no more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have generated just 236.0 total YPG in their last three contests which is resulting in only 12.3 PPG. But the Titans have not allowed more than 20 points in three of their last four contests. They stay at home where they are holding their guests to just 288.3 total YPG and 15.0 PPG. Tennessee has played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 38.5-42 point range. Additionally, the Titans have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, while the Colts are allowing 24.4 PPG, Tennessee has played 6 straight Unders against teams allowing 24.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals — and Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total against division foes. Tennessee is avenging a 23-16 loss in Indy as a 2-point road favorite on October 8th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-23 |
Georgia v. Alabama OVER 54 |
Top |
24-27 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (317) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (318) in the SEC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (12-0) has won 29 straight games after their 31-23 victory against Georgia Tech as a 24-point favorite last Saturday. Alabama (11-1) has won ten straight games after a 27-24 win at Auburn on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This Bulldogs team is not quite as stout as it has been the previous two seasons. Being a feeder to the NFL has eventually taken its toll on this unit, especially up front. Georgia only ranks 81st in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they have struggled against mobile quarterbacks. Now they face Jalen Milroe who has a body type like another former Crimson Tide quarterback — Jalen Hurts. Milroe is averaging 7.24 Yards-Per-Carry (excluding sacks). The Bulldogs have allowed 20 or more points in six of their last nine games after the Yellow Jackets put up 23 points on the scoreboard. Georgia has played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread including five of those six circumstances this season. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread loss. And in their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row, they have played 6 of those games Over the Total. But while their defensive front is not quite as dominant this season, the Georgia offensive line is stacked with at least four future NFLers in that group. The Bulldogs have allowed only ten quarterback sacks all season — and quarterback Carson Beck has been outstanding when given time in the pocket. When not facing pressure, Beck has completed 75% of his passes for 3189 passing yards with 17 touchdown passes. Georgia ranks third in the nation in Pass Success Rate — and they should be able to run the ball against an Alabama front that is not as stout either from past seasons as they rank 63rd in the nation in Line Yards Allowed. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total against SEC opponents. Alabama has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in conference play. Since returning to the field after getting benched early in the season, Milroe has 26 touchdowns and only five turnovers. He has a big arm — and he ranks fourth in the nation by averaging 21.2 yards per pass attempt of at least 20 air yards. The Crimson Tide generated 451 total yards last week against the Tigers — including that miracle fourth-and-31-yard conversion to win the game. Alabama is going to be feisty in this game. The Crimson Tide has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a win against an SEC rival. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. They had scored at least 34 points in four straight games before only scoring 27 points last week in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Alabama has won 16 straight games played in Atlanta — so they are not going to back down to the reigning two-time National Champions. Despite their mutual reputations for defense, these two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings against each other Over the Total — and the last three SEC Championship Games have finished Over the Total. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (317) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-23 |
New Mexico State v. Liberty UNDER 57 |
Top |
35-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (307) and the Liberty Flames (308) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: New Mexico State (10-3) is on an eight-game winning streak after their 20-17 upset win at Jacksonville State as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Liberty (12-0) remained undefeated this season with their 42-28 victory at UTEP as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies held the Gamecocks to just 333 total yards last week. They have held their last three opponents to just 327.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in them scoring only 18.7 Points-Per-Game. New Mexico State’s defense ranks 39th in the nation using Bill Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free metrics. Head coach Jerry Kill deploys a ball control offense — they pass the ball at the 103rd lowest rate in the FBS. The Aggies have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win against a conference opponent. They have played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. New Mexico State has held their last two opponents to 85 and 65 rushing yards — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. The Aggies already play tough defense against the pass — they rank 27th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. On the other side of the ball, New Mexico is a good running team that ranks sixth in the nation in Rushing Success Rate — so they should be able to sustain some drives. But they have not scored more than 28 points in eight of their last 11 games. On the other hand, they have held nine of their last 10 opponents to no more than 24 points. The Aggies play on the road at Williams Stadium having played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Liberty held the Miners to just 271 total yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory against a conference rival. The Flames took a 28-7 lead at halftime in that game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their last contest. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points. Frankly, Liberty has been feasting on some of the worst defenses in the nation with nine of their 12 opponents ranking 85th or lower in Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free defensive ratings. When they played a Jacksonville State team that ranks 49th in the SP+ defensive rankings, their 31 points were the second-fewest of the season— and their 422 total yards in the game were -76.9 fewer than their season average. On the other side of the ball, Liberty has held their last three opponents to only 314.0 total YPG which has resulted in just 21.0 PPG. They rank 43rd in the SP+ defensive rankings — and their Havoc Rate is seventh best in the nation. The Flames host this championship game having played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Liberty won the first meeting between these teams by 16 points — although their 33 points were the third-fewest they scored all season. The Aggies have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss at home. Both of these teams play at a slower pace — New Mexico State ranks 309th in the nation by averaging 30.9 seconds per play and the Flames average 28.8 seconds per play which ranks 97th. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (307) and the Liberty Flames (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-30-23 |
Seahawks v. Cowboys OVER 45.5 |
Top |
35-41 |
Win
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100 |
17 h 43 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (303) and the Dallas Cowboys (304). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-13 loss to San Francisco as a 7-point underdog last Thursday. Dallas (8-3) has won three games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 45-10 victory against Washington as a 13.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have scored at least 33 points in three straight games as well as four of their last five contests with the lone exception being their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia at the beginning of the month. They generated 431 yards against the Commanders despite having their offense on the field for only 23:06 minutes of that game. Dak Prescott is playing as well as he has at any time in his career after completing 22 of 32 passes against Washington for 331 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win at home. Furthermore, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight home games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight contests. They have also played 6 straight home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Cowboys are generating 443.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home this season which is resulting in a whopping 41.0 Points-Per-Game.
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