At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (680) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (679) in the Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (35-3) has won 15 games in a row after their 85-65 victory against Alabama as a 7-point favorite in their Elite Eight game on Saturday. Houston (34-4) has won 17 games in a row after their 69-50 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: There is a lot to like with this Cougars team. Three of their four losses were decided in overtime. They have lost only once since November 30th. They rank in the top ten in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. But when talking about the elite of the four remaining elite teams, I suspect the Cougars get exposed in this showdown. (1) I do have some qualms about their resume. Who is the best team they have beaten this season? The Volunteers on Sunday? Pomeroy says so —Tennessee ranks fifth overall in his Net Adjusted Efficiency numbers. But while the Vols rank third in defense, they were only 17th on offense. Houston held the Volunteers to just 15 points in the first half and 28.8% shooting overall. While head coach Kelvin Sampson’s defense deserves much of the credit if you watched the game, then it is hard to not place some of the blame on missed jumper after missed jumper by Tennessee — and that offensive performance under their head coach Rick Barnes was not an anomaly over the years. Perhaps the Cougars’ best win was against Gonzaga in the Round of 32. Pomeroy ranks them as the eighth-best team in the nation — but while they rank sixth on offense, they are just 30th on defense. Maybe it’s Texas Tech they split their two games against in Big 12 play — Pomeroy’s laptop places them 9th in the nation. But the Red Raiders are another one of those relatively imbalanced teams that ranks fifth on offense by 39th on defense. Houston’s worst loss was by five points against Auburn — and the Tigers rank third and eighth on offense and defense according to Pomeroy. The Cougars also have a five-point loss in overtime against an Alabama team that ranks fourth and 27th in Pomeroy’s offensive and defensive rankings. They also have a loss against San Diego State — and the canary in the coal mine from that game may be that the Aztecs rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which exposes my second concern with this Houston team. (2) Houston’s offense can still go cold because of their inefficiency inside the arc. The Cougars are one of Sampson’s better scoring teams because they rank second in the nation by nailing 39.7% of their shots from behind the arc — but their scoring can dry up if these shots are not falling. In their loss to Auburn, they made only 41.4% of their shots which resulted in 69 points. In their last overtime loss against the Crimson Tide who play at the fastest pace in the nation, they only made 36.9% of their shots. In their loss to San Diego State, they only made 37.1% of their shots. In their narrow 62-60 victory against Purdue in the Sweet 16, they only made 37.7% of their shots. A theme is emerging: if Houston is missing their shots, they can be beaten — and they did not make more than 42.1% of their shots in ten of their games this season. That will not be enough made shots against Duke — as I will discuss below. On the road, the Cougars' 3-point shooting drops to a 37.6% clip which ranks 18th in the nation. Houston ranks 282nd by making only 48.4% of their shots inside the arc — and that mark drops to a 46.7% clip on the road which ranks 289th. They are scoring -3.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. To compound matters, they do not make things easier for themselves by getting to the free throw line — they rank 327th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Just not enough easy shots spell trouble. (3) the Cougars lacks size. Their three tallest players in their rotation are only 6’8 — including J’Wan Roberts. I expect this potential weakness to get exploited by this Duke squad whose smallest player on the roster is 6’5. The Blue Devils will have a size advantage at every position — including Cooper Flagg at 6’9 and then the underrated Khaman Maluoch at 7’2. Houston’s size disadvantage plays a role in them ranking 207th in the nation in putting their opponent on the free-throw line. The Cougars also surrender +2.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road which ranks as the 250th biggest discrepancy in the nation when compared to their home defensive efficiency. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games when playing for the second time in eight days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road against teams outside the Big 12 including not covering the point spread in five of those seven games this season. It may be telling that they have failed to cover the point spread in three of their four games against teams from the ACC in the last three seasons. The one-point spread cover was in the Sweet 16 last year in their 54-51 loss against the Blue Devils as a 3-point underdog — but Duke head coach Jon Scheyer did not have Flagg nor freshmen Kon Knueppel and Maluach on his team yet. All three are projected to be future first-round draft picks in the NBA — and Flagg should be the first player in the June draft coming up. All four teams that reached the Final Four rank in Pomeroy’s all-time rankings in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency in his database that goes back to 1997 — but it remains impressive that this Duke team only trails the 1999 Blue Devils as the best all-time using his metrics. Now that does not guarantee they cover the number in this game — but they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning their previous game by 15 or more points including 10 of those 14 games played on the road. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. Duke leads the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But it is the play of their defense that should help them separate against this smaller Cougars squad. The Blue Devils rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They stymied the explosive Alabama offense to just a 35.4% shooting percentage — and the Tide’s 0.89 Points-Per-Possession scoring rate was their third-lowest mark of the season. Duke also won the rebounding battle by a 42-30 margin. Houston ranks 11th by pulling down 36.8% of their missed shots — but the Blue Devils limit their opponents to rebounding just 26.7% which ranks 44th. They also rank 18th in the nation on the road with their opponent’s shooting just 29.8% from downtown. Duke has only lost once since December as the team got better when (a) Sion James was inserted in the starting lineup for Caleb Foster in an upgrade on defense and (b) the offense began running through Flagg who continues to improve in what should be his senior year of high school. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 14 of their 21 games on the road this season. And while the elite Houston defense holds their opponents to 38.2% shooting, Duke has covered the point spread in 11 of their 15 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Devils have beaten both Auburn and Alabama previously this season — and they also beat Arizona twice. Duke has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games this season against teams who are winning 80% or more of their games. And while Houston is outscoring their opponents by +15.7 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 10 of their 13 games this season against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (680) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (679). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (645) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (646) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Michigan State (306) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 73-70 victory against Mississippi as a 3.5-point underdog in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament on Friday. Auburn (31-5) has won four of their last five games after their 78-65 victory against Michigan as a 9-point favorite in their Sweet 16 game in the Big Dance on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State found a way to rally to beat the Rebels on Friday despite losing the rebounding battle by a 33-29 margin. The Spartans only pulled down five offensive rebounds which is unheard of for a Tom Izzo team. Izzo dialed up a great offensive game plan against head coach Chris Beard’s “no-middle” defense. Sparty shot 50% from the field including making 18 of their 31 shots (58.1%) inside the arc. They also made a living at the free throw line by getting to the charity stripe 22 times and making 19 of those shots. It was also very encouraging to see freshman phenom Jase Richardson score 20 points and make 4 of his 6 shots from behind the arc. He struggled in the previous round against New Mexico by scoring only 6 points. Richardson is Michigan State’s best 3-point shooter with his 42.0% shooting clip — and he jumpstarted their scoring attack when he entered the starting lineup midway through the Big Ten season. If this team can make more than 33% of their 3s, they become very tough to beat given all the other things they do well. The Spartans rank 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and fifth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation ranking 28th by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots and ranking eighth by limiting their opponents to rebounding 24.6% of their misses. Their physical style of play on both ends of the court helps them get to the free throw line — they rank 42nd in free throw rate. Furthermore, they rank second in the nation by limiting their opponents to 28.0% shooting from behind the arc. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after a straight-up win including 10 of those 15 games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 130s. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral court. And while the Tigers are outscoring their opponents by +14.3 net Points-Per-Game, the Spartans have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 PPG including eight of those 11 games played on the road. Auburn continues to show some cracks in their armor against good teams in their victory against the Wolverines. They trailed by a 48-39 score with 12:26 left in the second half before going on a 39-17 run to win (and cover the spread). Maybe that means the Tigers are “back” — but it said more about that Michigan team who melted in those final 12 minutes. Take away Danny Wolf’s 9 of 18 shooting — and the other Wolverines only made 12 of 41 shots (29.2%). If you watched the game, then you know it was not defense prowess from Auburn as much ugly execution in what was sloppy play by both teams. The Tigers trailed Creighton at halftime in their previous game before getting it together in the second half — but teams that continue to live dangerously after sluggish starts tend to get burned. The Tigers entered the Big Dance with three losses in their last four games. While they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they began the NCAA Tournament ranking just 54th in that category in March. Some of the issues have been with the return of Denver Jones from injury who does not appear to be close to 100% with his lateral movement not as sharp. In their last five games before this tournament, their opponents scored 17 second-chance Points-Per-Game, which was the second-most in the country. Let’s dig deeper into this Auburn defense that surrenders +5.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road — and that is the 321st-worst drop-off in the nation. They ranked 61st in the nation on the road with their opponents making 48.9% of their shots inside the arc before Michigan went 16 of 42 (38.1%) with their 2-pointers. They also rank 315th on the road in putting their opponents on the free throw line. And they rank 164th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.5% of their missed shots. This is the real vulnerability of this Tigers team. In their five losses this season, they have surrendered at least ten offensive rebounds — including the whopping 24 offensive rebounds secured by Texas A&M in their final game in the regular season. Auburn entered this tournament with an amazing 15-5 record against Quad I teams — but that mark makes it "championship or bust" for this squad with all the nerves that come with that. They may have peaked too early given the decline of their play on defense this month. This is a veteran squad — but do they have a true leader on the court? And emotional maturity can be an issue with this team — especially from Chad Baker-Mazara. This all creates a volatile mix for head coach Bruce Pearl who has seen his teams in the Big Dance fail to cover the point spread in 9 of the 13 games when a four-seed or better including five of those eight games since taking over Auburn. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 games this month.

FINAL TAKE: Matchups make fights — and Michigan State’s three best offensive strengths with rebounding, inside shooting, and getting to the free throw line are their three biggest defensive liabilities for Auburn. The Spartans outrebound their opponents by +9.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their 18 games on the road against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. 25* CBB Elite Eight Underdog of the Year with the Michigan State Spartans (645) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (642) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (641) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (34-3) has won 14 games in a row after their 100-93 victory against Arizona as a 9-point favorite in their Sweet 16 games in the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Alabama (28-8) has won five of their last six games after their 113-88 victory against BYU as a 4.5-point favorite in their Sweet 16 contest in the Big Dance on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke torched the Wildcats by making 60% of their shots — and that was not an outlier performance when considering they made 64% of their shots against Baylor in their previous game in this tournament. The Blue Devils lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and in their nine games played on a neutral court, they are scoring +3.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. Cooper Flagg continues to improve in his freshman season — not only did he dish out seven assists, grab, six rebounds, and block three shots, he is developing into a dynamic scorer which unlocks the last remaining part of his game for the next level by scoring 30 points including three 3s. Using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, Duke leads the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and rank fifth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Even more impressive, in Pomeroy’s 29 years of advanced metrics in his database, only the 1999 Duke team has a better Adjusted Net Efficiency than this Blue Devils team — and I am not talking about just Duke teams, I am talking about every college basketball team since 1996-97. Now that accomplishment does not mean that the Blue Devils will cover point spreads — but they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after winning their last game including in the 13 of 20 of those games played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. While Duke’s ability to score buckets can overwhelm their opponents, what makes them so tough to beat is their stout play on defense. They have size at every position with every rotation player being at least 6’5 — and they lead the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.4%. This size helps them neutralize good rebounding teams. The Crimson Tide rank 54th in the nation by pulling down 34.1% of their missed shots — but the Blue Devils rank 46th on the road by limiting their opponents to rebounding 26.9% of their missed shots. Alabama outrebounds their opponents by +6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — but the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Crimson Tide makes 48.7% of their shots — but Duke has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against opponents who make at least 45% of their shots. And while Alabama is outscoring their opponents by +10.2 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Alabama broke an NCAA Tournament record by nailing 25 shots from behind the arc against the Cougars on Thursday — but defense was not the calling card of that BYU team. Not only are the Regression Gods coming tonight, but it will be very difficult for the Crimson Tide to approach that number against the length of this Duke team. Mark Sears nailed 10 shots from distance himself — but at 6’1, he will have more difficulty taking these shots unless he goes full-on Stephon Curry and steps back even farther away from the line. Duke ranks 35th in the nation by holding their opponents to 31.0% shooting from behind the arc. Alabama plays at the fastest pace in the country while ranking 37th in the nation by taking 46.5% of their shots from behind the arc. But the secret sauce to head coach Nate Oats’ approach is that this style generates easy looks at the basket. The Crimson Tide lead the nation by making 60.1% of their shots inside the arc. That’s not going to happen against Duke who leads the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.1% — and that includes them ranking second by limiting their opponents to 43.2% shooting inside the arc. But the rubber hits the road given how difficult it is to get off good shots against the Blue Devils: they lead the nation with their opponents averaging 19.2 seconds per possession which is the highest mark of all 364 Division I teams. Alabama can continue to shoot early in the shot clock — but they are likely to be lesser quality shots. An additional concern with Alabama is that in their final ten games before the Big Dance, they ranked 198th by turning the ball over in 16.9% of their possessions. Now let’s talk about that Crimson Tide defense which is the weak link in this game. On paper, they look good by ranking 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Oats’ commitment to The Analytics means he wants to take away their opponent's shots from behind the arc and at the rim — but that leaves the midrange open. The Analytics say that leaves lower-percentage 2-point shots to their opponent — but that does not mean really good players still don’t make these shots at high efficiency. Alabama gets exposed by runners and floaters attacking the basket. Flagg should dominate down low. This defensive approach also allows their opponents to rebound 29.5% of their missed shots which ranks 161st in the nation — and Duke ranks 50th in the nation by rebounding 34.3% of their misses. Breaking the Tide’s defensive numbers down, while they rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 49th in that category when playing on the road where they are surrendering +6.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. Against the top 50 statistical teams in the nation in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency, they rank 55th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is very telling because their drop-off is even more pronounced than other teams. The margin for error with the Tide’s 3-point shooting is just so thin. They have surrendered 80 or more points in 10 of their last 14 games — and six of their last 12 opponents have scored at least 88 points. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em in the last three seasons under Oats including both games when they were getting 6.5 to 12 points as the underdog.  

FINAL TAKE: When Alabama loses, it is usually by big margins because their defensive style of play gets exposed by elite offensive teams. Florida blasted them by a 104-82 score in the SEC Tournament. Five of the Crimson Tide’s eight losses — to Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, Purdue, and the Gators — were by nine or more points. 25* CBB Elite Eight Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (642) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (641). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (633) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (634) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Michigan (27-9) has won five games in a row after their 91-79 upset victory as a 3-point underdog in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Auburn (30-5) has won three of their last four games after their 82-70 victory against Clemson as a 9-point favorite in their second-round game in the Big Dance on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Auburn is beginning to show some cracks in their armor which may make it very hard to easily beat (and cover point spreads) good opponents like Michigan — especially given the Wolverines’ size down low. The Tigers entered the Big Dance with three losses in their last four games. While they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they began the NCAA Tournament ranking just 54th in that category in March. Some of the issues have been with the return of Denver Jones from injury who does not appear to be close to 100% with his lateral movement not as sharp. In their last five games before this tournament, their opponents scored 17 Points-Per-Game, which was the second-most in the country. Let’s dig deeper into this defense that surrenders +6.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road — and that is the 330th-worst dropoff in the nation. They rank 61st in the nation on the road with their opponents making 48.9% of their shots inside the arc. They also rank 315th on the road in putting their opponents on the free throw line. And they rank 186th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.8% of their missed shots. This is the real vulnerability of this Tigers team. In their five losses this season, they have surrendered at least ten offensive rebounds — including the whopping 24 offensive rebounds secured by Texas A&M in their final game in the regular season. The Wolverines outrebound their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their 16 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG including three of those nine games played on the road. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in March. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after when playing with five or six days of rest. They got by Creighton last week by making 46.9% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But both Johni Broome and Dylan Caldwell struggled against the Bluejays’ Ryan Kalkbrenner who is a taller seven-footer. Broome only scored 8 points on 4 of 13 shooting while Caldwell scored just 6 points and pulled down four rebounds. Now here comes Michigan twin-towers with both Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin presenting matchup problems at 7’0 and 7’1 respectively. The Wolverines limit their opponents to taking just 22.9% of their shots at the rim which is in the lowest three percentile in the nation. Their opponents only make 59.0% of these shots at the rim which ranks in the lowest 20% as well. Michigan is playing outstanding defense after holding the Aggies to just 38.0% shooting. They have held five of their last seven opponents to not better than 38.7% shooting. On the road, they rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Wolf and Goldin combined for 37 points and 31 rebounds against a stout Texas A&M frontline. Those two will be challenged by the Tigers’ tough frontline — so it may come down to the play of guards. The Wolverines have won all seven of their games when point guard Trey Donaldson scores at least 16 points. Michigan ranks 15th in the nation by making 57.3% of their shots inside the arc and they rank 76th by pulling down 33.4% of their misses — so they can exploit the cracks in Auburn armor on defense. The glaring weakness for this Wolverines team is that they rank 324th by turning the ball over in 19.6% of their possessions. But they have lowered that turnover rate to 17.9% in their last ten games which ranks 255th over that span. And the Tigers only rank 232nd in the nation on the road by forcing turnovers in 15.8% of their opponent's possessions. Michigan is battle-tested after beating Maryland along with Wisconsin and Purdue for a second time in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. Their 13 wins by four points or less this season can be seen as a negative — but it prepared them for this moment. Auburn is outscoring their opponents by +14.4 PPG — but the Wolverines have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by 8.0 or more PPG. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Michigan has covered the point spread in all 7 of their tournament games played on a neutral court this season.

FINAL TAKE: Auburn entered this tournament with an amazing 15-5 record against Quad I teams — but that mark makes it "championship or bust" for this squad with all the nerves that come with that. They may have peaked too early given the decline of their play on defense this month. This is a veteran squad — but do they have a true leader on the court? And emotional maturity can be an issue with this team — especially from Chad Baker-Mazara. This all creates a volatile mix for head coach Bruce Pearl who has seen his teams in the Big Dance fail to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when a four-seed or better including five of those seven games since taking over Auburn. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Underdog of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (633) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (634). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:09 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (630) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (629) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (27-8) has won six of their last seven games after their 77-64 victory against Drake as a 7.5-point favorite in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Arkansas (22-13) has won five of their last six games after their 75-66 upset victory against St. John’s as a 7-point underdog on Saturday in their second-round game of the Big Dance. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Razorbacks benefited from a Red Storm team that could not hit the side of the barn Saturday afternoon as they only made 28.0% of their shots from the field. That was the best defensive effort for them all season — but it may be more of a statement about that Rick Pitino team and their lack of scoring options. Arkansas has scored two straight upset victories in this tournament after upsetting Kansas in their opening-round game. The Razorbacks have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Head coach John Calipari expects to get Adou Thiero back from injury tonight — but I still suspect their bubble gets burst tonight. I appreciate that his team has played better lately after enduring injuries for much of the year — but I still don’t like the profile of this team since they don't generate additional possessions and their shot volume is low. They rank 231st in the nation by pulling down 28.1% of their missed shots — and they rank 150th by forcing turnovers in only 17.5% of their opponent’s possessions. If their shots are not falling, then they lack a reliable Plan B — especially if their opponent is not missing their shots. It is telling that the Razorbacks have a 7-11 record against teams in the top 40 — but a 15-2 record against their remaining opponents. They have beaten two Sweet 16 teams in Michigan and Kentucky — but they have lost to six teams who made the Sweet 16 with setbacks against Ole Miss twice, Auburn, Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee. On the road, they surrender +2.5 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. Their perimeter defense is of concern in those games with their opponents making 34.2% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 169th in the nation. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road against teams outside the SEC. Texas Tech may get 3-point shooter Chance McMillian back tonight who is listed as questionable with his upper body injury. I am assuming he does not play and will be pleasantly surprised if he can take the court for the first time in this tournament for head coach Grant McCasland. The Red Raiders rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 37th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics — and since 2021, all but one National Champion ranked in his top 21 in offense and top 44 in defense. Texas Tech is one of 12 teams remaining in the field that meet those baseline standards — and the Razorbacks' offense which ranks 65th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency keeps them out of that group. McCasland’s team is led by floor-spacing big man J.T. Toppin and pass-first point guard Elijah Hawkins. Another power rankings system other than Pomeroy’s puts them seventh in the nation — and they are ninth in the country in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. For comparison's sake, Arkansas ranks 41st in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency using those numbers. They rank third in the nation on the road in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring +5.2 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. The Red Raiders are a great road team because they generate extra scoring possessions and protect the basketball. They rank 59th in the nation by pulling down 33.9% of their missed shots. They rank 24th by only turning the ball over in just 14.5% of their possessions. They are also proficient with their 3-point shooting. Texas Tech ranks 31st in the nation by making 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 58th by taking 44.9% of their shots from 3-point range. The Red Raiders have beaten Houston, BYU, and Arizona who all made the Sweet 16 — and they only have three losses against Sweet 16 teams with two losses to Arizona and a setback to Houston. The Razorbacks make 46.4% of their shots and hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting — and Texas Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games on the road this season against teams who make at least 45% of their shots and hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on a neutral court as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (630) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (629). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:39 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (626) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (625) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (33-3) has won 13 games in a row after their 89-66 victory against Baylor as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. Arizona (24-12) has won four of their last five games after their 87-83 win against Oregon as a 4-point favorite last Sunday night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke was dominant against the Bears last Sunday. They nailed 64.4% of their shots and scored at an incredible 1.51 Points-Per-Possession rate. Cooper Flagg appears completely recovered from the injury that kept him out of the ACC Championship Game. They have won their first two games in the Big Dance by 67 combined points. Using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, they lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and rank fourth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Even more impressive, in Pomeroy’s 29 years of advanced metrics in his database, only the 1999 Duke team has a better Adjusted Net Efficiency than this Blue Devils team — and I am not talking about just Duke teams, I am talking about every college basketball team since 1996-97. Now that accomplishment does not mean that the Blue Devils will cover point spreads — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games on the road after winning their last game by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. While Duke’s ability to score buckets can overwhelm their opponents, what makes them so tough to beat is their stout play on defense. They have size at every position — they lead the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.1%. This size helps them neutralize good rebounding teams. The Wildcats rank 16th in the nation by pulling down 36.1% of their missed shots — but the Blue Devils rank 44th on the road by limiting their opponents to rebounding 27.2% of their missed shots. Arizona outrebounds their opponents by +8.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — but the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Wildcats hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting — but Duke has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against opponents holding their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. And while Arizona is outscoring their opponents by +9.7 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road after a straight-up win. They overcame a near-disastrous 19-4 deficit to the Ducks early in that game — and Caleb Love scored 29 points in the victory. The Wildcats go as Love goes — but he can be enigmatic. On the road, Arizona scores -5.9 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions which ranks as the 306th worst dropoff in the nation. They also fall to 50th in the nation by rebounding 33.7% of their missed shots. Duke holds their opponents to 61.7 PPG — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams who do not allow more than 64.0 PPG. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of the Blue Devils’ 69-55 upset victory against the Wildcats in Tucson on November 22nd as a 1.5-point underdog. Duke’s size was too much for Arizona as they won the rebuilding battle by a 43-30 margin and held Love to 3 of 13 shooting with him making only 1 of his 9 shots from behind the arc. The Blue Devils have improved significantly since that game — the offense now runs through Flagg and Sion James replaced Caleb Foster in the starting lineup in a boost to the offense. At 6’4, Love will likely struggle with the size of James and Tyrese Proctor who are both 6’6. The Wildcats lost 7’2 Motiejus Krivas to a season-ending injury in early December — and the rotation of Henri Veesar and Tobe Awaka has not been less effective in his absence but they lost size in the necessary adjustment. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Duke Blue Devils (626) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (625). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (612) minus the point(s) versus the North Texas Mean Green (611) in the Quarterfinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (17-17) has won three of their last four games after their 85-83 upset victory at SMU as an 8.5-point underdog on Sunday. North Texas (26-8) has won three of their last four games after their 65-63 victory against Arkansas State as a 4-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Oklahoma State is a dangerous team that upset Iowa State earlier in the season. After playing their second-round game in this tournament on the road, they return home where they have a 13-3 record — and they score +8.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. Oklahoma State has a good team profile since they work hard at generating extra possessions. They rank 36th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank 88th by pulling down 32.9% of their missed shots. They also rank 19th in free throw rate — and this is a particular weakness for the Mean Green. North Texas ranks 293rd in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and it gets even worse on the road where they rank 332nd in the nation in that metric. This contest will be a contrast in styles. Oklahoma State plays at the 16th fastest rate in the country with their games averaging 71.6 adjusted possessions. The Mean Green’s games average 60.4 adjusted possessions which is the second-fewest in the nation. Playing at home, I think the Cowboys will be able to coax this game to play out the way they want it because North Texas turns the ball over in 18.1% of their opponent’s possessions which ranks 197th. The Mean Green also ranks 285th in the nation by only making 46.9% of their shots inside the arc — and they are scoring -7.9 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. North Texas is a very good defensive team that just held the Red Wolves to 36.9% shooting — but that was the best defensive effort in their last three games. The Mean Green have not covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with one day or less of rest. The Cowboys allow their opponents to make 45.7% of their shots — but North Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. The Mean Green have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in March.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (612) minus the point(s) versus the North Texas Mean Green (611). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (865) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (866) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi (23-11) has won two of their last three games after their 71-64 upset victory against North Carolina as a 1-point underdog in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday. Iowa State (25-9) has won three of their last four games after their 82-55 victory against Lipscomb as a 14-point favorite in their opening game in the Big Dance on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State nailed 58.3% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 contests. But the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road when playing for the second time in three days. The season-ending groin injury to their floor, general Keshon Gilbert, will probably catch up with this Iowa State team tonight. He was their second-leading scorer at 13.4 Points-Per-Game — and he was adding 4.1 Assists-Per-Game. The Cyclones had a 2-3 record in the five games he missed late in the season. Iowa State wants to force turnovers as they rank 12th in the nation with a 21.9% defensive turnover rate — but good luck accomplishing that against this Rebels team that ranks third in the nation by turning the ball over in only 13.0% of their possessions. Despite shooting the ball pretty well from distance, the Cyclones only generated 28.8% of their points from 3-pointers so I worry about how this team will play the math game if they are not able to generate additional pressure from forcing turnovers. Iowa State does not play great half-court defense either — especially on the road where they surrender +6.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank 166th in the nation on the road with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.8%. On the road, they allow their opponents to make 35.4% of their shots from behind the arc on the road and 50.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 227th and 125th in the nation respectively. Mississippi should build off the momentum of upsetting the Tar Heels as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset victory. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road after a straight-up win. Ole Miss is certainly battle-tested after surviving the SEC meat-grinder this season. The Rebels beat Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas in conference play while also registering impressive victories against BYU, Louisville, and Colorado State in non-conference play. This is a balanced team that ranks 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 20th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they score +4.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank 35th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.3% of their opponent’s possessions. Iowa State turned the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions in conference play since the beginning of February — and most of those games were when they still had Gilbert at the point. Look for head coach Chris Beard to amp up the fast pace that the Rebels like to play to challenge the depth of the Cyclones who deployed a short bench even before the Gilbert injury. The Cyclones do outrebound their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds Per Game — but Mississippi has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. Iowa State outscores their opponents by +12.7 PPG — but the Rebels have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games against teams who outscore their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG including eight of those eleven games on the road. Ole Miss has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: The Rebels have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court as an underdog or a pick ‘em. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. 25* CBB Round of 32 Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (865) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (822) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (821) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Tennessee (28-7) has won four of their last five games after their 77-62 victory as an 18.5-point favorite against Wofford in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. UCLA (23-10) has won three of their last four games after their 72-47 victory as a 6-point favorite against Utah State in the Round of 64 of the Big Dance on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINTS: This situation did not particularly stand out at first glance (a common theme today — I do like tomorrow’s card much better, FYI) — but upon my final deep dive late this afternoon, I have concluded that this is a very bad matchup for what is otherwise a good Bruins team. In theory, UCLA is a dangerous underdog since they will slow the game down and do the things I look for in creating extra scoring possessions if their shots are not falling. The Bruins rank seventh in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.7% of their opponent’s possessions. They also pull down 32.8% of their missed shots which ranks 91st in the nation. But the Volunteers are a tough foe who are well-versed in what head coach Mick Cronin’s team will attempt to do. Tennessee is not going to mind the slow pace at all since they love playing grinders with their big bodies and perhaps the most physical defense in the country. They protect the basketball by turning the ball over only 15.8% of the time which ranks 85th in the nation. Admittedly, the Volunteers' defensive rebounding numbers are not great with their opponents pulling down 30.0% of their missed shots — but those numbers also reflect head coach Rick Barnes’ preference to sacrifice defensive rebounding for being aggressive for getting out on the fast break when they pull down the basketball 70% of the time. For the record, Tennessee held Auburn — and a better offensive rebounding team than UCLA — to rebounding only 26.5% of their missed shots in the SEC tournament. What worries me about the Bruins even more is that their defense has lagged lately. Over the last month, their opponent’s effective field goal percentage dropped to 175th in the nation. Defense is the weakness of this UCLA team — and scoring is typically the Achilles’ heel for Barnes’ teams at Tennessee. They rank 128th on the season with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.9%. The problem is their defense inside the arc where they rank 187th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 51.1% of their 2-pointers. UCLA did hold the Aggies to 30% shooting on Thursday in what was the best defensive effort in their last 27 contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the 6 games this season when they held their opponent to no higher than 33% shooting. In the 22 games with Cronin as their head coach when they held their opponent to no better than 33% shooting, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 5 games on the road this season after a win by 15 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 25 games in Cronin’s tenure when they were on the road for the second time in three days. On the road, the Bruins surrender +1.5 more adjusted points per 100 possessions with the problem continuing to be their interior defense. They rank 290th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to make 55.0% of their shots inside the arc. But of even greater concern is UCLA’s scoring decline away from home as they are scoring -8.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. While they rank 52nd when playing at home by making 57.1% of their shots inside the arc, they plummet to a ranking of 230th on the road by hitting only 48.2% of their shots inside the arc. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 150s. This UCLA team also loses hidden points from the free throw line. They only rank 190th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. And when they are on the line, they rank 231st by making just 70.8% of their shots from the charity stripe. The Volunteers see their opponents make 73.7% of their free throws which ranks 269th — so they will be pleasantly surprised to see the Bruins miss a few more of these shots. UCLA also ranks 209th in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and Tennessee ranks 31st on the road in getting to the free throw line. In expected close games, spotting a defensive juggernaut like the Vol's shots and points on the free throw line is a recipe to not cover the point spread. This is the second-best offensive team in Barnes’ era at Tennessee as they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make 54.3% of their shots inside the arc which ranks 61st in the nation. They rank 30th in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots. And this scoring attack is trending up with the recent emergence of Jordan Gaines who has scored 15.5 Points-Per-Game in the last six contests. But the play on the other end of the court continues to be the strength of the Volunteers. They rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank third in opponent effective goal percentage — and they also rank third by holding their opponents to just 28.2% shooting from behind the arc. The teams who shoot better closer to the basket have a better chance against this Tennessee team — and that is simply not UCLA. The Volunteers look to reach the Sweet 16 for the third straight season and tenth time with Barnes at the helm — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after a straight-up win.

FINAL TAKE: The Volunteers are battled-tested having gone through the gauntlet of the SEC this season that produced a record 14 teams into the Big Dance — and they also registered high-quality non-conference victories against Louisville, Baylor, and Illinois. They are one of just five teams to beat Auburn this season. The Volunteers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams outside the SEC. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Tennessee Volunteers (822) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (821). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the St. John’s Red Storm (818) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (817) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: St. John’s (31-4) has won 10 straight games after their 83-53 victory against Nebraska-Omaha as an 18.5-point favorite in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Arkansas (21-13) has won four of their last five games after their 79-72 upset victory against Kansas as a 5-point underdog in their first-round contest in the Big Dance on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, Rhode Island.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED STORM MINUS THE POINTS: Say what you want about Rick Pitino, but the guy is a fantastic basketball coach. In his second year at St. John’s, his team has won 20 of their last 21 games — and their four losses were by a combined 14 points. The weakness of his team is shooting — but his style of play compensates for that by being one of the best squads in the country in generating shot volume. They do not waste their chances — they rank 61st in the country by turning the ball over only 15.5% of the time. They get tons of second-chance scoring opportunities by ranking ninth in the nation by pulling down 37.4% of their missed shots. And they may be the best defensive team in the country. They rank second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they claim the top spot in the country in that metric when playing on the road where they surrender a whopping -7.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank sixth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.6% of their opponent’s possessions — and now they face a Razorbacks team that had turned the ball over in ten straight games before playing the Jayhawks on Thursday. St. John’s has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a straight-up win including nine of those thirteen games played on the road. The Red Storm have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games including seven of those eight games on the road. Arkansas does make 46.5% of their shots — but St. John’s has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots including six of those nine games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams outside the Big East. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win including five of those eight games played on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. Head coach John Calipari’s team is nearly the polar opposite of the Johnnies since they do not rely on shot volume. They rank 244th in the nation by pulling down 27.7% of their missed shots — and they rank 135th by forcing turnovers in only 17.7% of their opponent’s possessions. If their shots are not falling, then they lack a reliable Plan B — and that is a recipe for disaster against such a good defensive team like the Red Storm. It is telling that the Razorbacks have a 6-11 record against teams in the top 40 — but a 15- 2 record against their remaining opponents. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against opponents outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: The Red Storm have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road when favored. 10* CBB Arkansas-St. John’s CBS-TV Special with the St. John’s Red Storm (818) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (817). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (808) minus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (807) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Maryland (25-8) had won four games in a row before their 81-80 upset loss to Michigan as a 4-point favorite in the Semifinals of the Big Ten Conference Tournament last Saturday. Grand Canyon (26-7) has won three games in a row after their 89-82 victory as a 4.5-point favorite in the championship game of the Western Athletic Conference Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS MINUS THE POINTS: Maryland is disappointed in not winning the Big Ten tournament — but this is still a team poised to make a deep run in the Big Dance. The “Crab Five” has one of the best starting units in the country. It starts with their frontline of Derik Queen and Julian Reese who are two bruisers at 6’10 and 6’9 and both around 250 pounds. Queen has become a double-double machine after pulling off at least 10 points and 10 rebounds in eight of his last ten games. These two big men are flanked by Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice, and SeltonMiguel who combined to nail 38.0% of their shots from behind the arc in the final ten games of the regular season. Maryland allowed Michigan to make 47% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 12 games. But the Terrapins have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games under head coach Kevin Willard after losing to a fellow Big Ten rival. Maryland is a balanced team that does many things well that should keep them protected from getting upset in these early rounds. They rank 27th in the nation by nailing 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc. They are also above average by pulling down 31.0% of their missed shots. They protect the basketball as well by turning the ball over just 14.5% of the time which ranks 22nd in the nation. On defense, the Terrapins rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They generate extra possessions by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions which ranks 37th. They are also strong at defending the perimeter by ranking 25th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 30.7% shooting from behind the arc. They also have a hidden strength regarding when they take shots and when their opponents take shots. Generally, teams that are quicker to launch a shot attempt are taking better quality shots since those opportunities become more sparse as the shot clock continues. Maryland ranks 29th in the nation by averaging 16.1 seconds per shot — and their opponents average 18.0 seconds per shot attempt which is the 262nd slowest mark in the nation. On the road, the Terrapins improve their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranking from 25th overall to 14th best in the nation — they are scoring +5.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. Their 37.6% shooting from behind the arc on the road ranks 17th. Maryland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road, They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set at 150s. Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Head coach Bryce Drew’s team upset Saint Mary’s in the Round of 64 last season but his club this year does not have as impressive a profile — and the Terrapins are much less vulnerable than that Gaels team was. The Antelopes do generate extra scoring possessions by crashing the offensive glass and attempting to force turnovers — but Maryland will make it tough to accomplish those tasks. But a big weakness of this Grand Canyon team is that they rank 295th on the road by turning the ball over in 19.6% of their possessions — and that is a significant problem against the Terrapins. They also only make 29.4% of their shots from behind the arc on the road which ranks 331st in the nation. The Antelopes score -3.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. They also rank 60th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road which may be fine for the WAC but it is another vulnerability against an opponent like Maryland. The Terrapins hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting — and Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. The Antelopes have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games outside the WAC.

FINAL TAKE: Maryland has covered the point spread in 20 of their 31 games under Willard when laying double-digits including in nine of those 13 occasions this season. 25* CBB Round of 64 NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Maryland Terrapins (808) minus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (807). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (780) minus the point(s) versus the Baylor Bears (779) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (21-12) has lost three of their last four games after their 85-73 loss to Missouri as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday in the SEC Tournament. Baylor (19-14) has lost two of their last three games after their 76-74 loss to Texas Tech as a 6.5-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINT(S): Mississippi State made only 36.4% of their shots last week against the Tigers which was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 games and tied for the worst shooting performance in their last 14 contest. The Bulldogs should bounce back on the offensive end of the floor this afternoon since they are a good offensive team. They rank 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have good size which helps them rank 44th in the nation by making 55.2% of their shots inside the arc. They also rank 57th in the nation by pulling down 34.1% of their missed shots. Offensive rebounding travels — and Mississippi State ranks 26th in the nation on the road by pulling down 35.0% of their missed shots. And while they can struggle with their focus when playing defense, their intensity does ratchet up when playing on the road where they are surrendering -3.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank 37th in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games on the road when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road when listed in that +/- 3-point range. And in their last 15 games on the road against teams outside the SEC, they have covered the point spread in 10 of those contests. Mississippi State is the type of team that Baylor struggles against. Twelve of the Bears’ 14 losses were against teams ranking in the top 25 in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Baylor is a mediocre defensive club this season. They rank 129th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 49.8% of their shots inside the arc. They also rank 234th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 31.2% of their missed shots. The Bears rank 56th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to 108th in that metric when playing on the road where they are surrendering +9.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. They rank 314th on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 33.9% of their missed shots. Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog. The Tigers make 45.1% of their shots — and the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field. Baylor has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when favored or a pick ‘em on a neutral court including all four games when favored by six points or less or listed as a pick ‘em. 10* CBB Baylor-Mississippi State CBS-TV Special with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (780) minus the point(s) versus the Baylor Bears (779). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-San Diego Tritons (769) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (770) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-San Diego (30-4) has won 15 games in a row after their 75-61 victory as a 5.5-point favorite against UC-Irvine in the championship game of the Big West Conference Tournament last Saturday. Michigan (25-9) has won three games in a row after their 59-53 upset victory against Wisconsin in the championship game of the Big Ten Conference Tournament last Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Intrust Bank Arena in Wichita, Kansas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRITONS PLUS THE POINTS: UC-Irvine outlasted the Anteaters on Saturday by holding them to 35.1% shooting which was actually their worst defensive effort in their last five games. UC-San Diego has held five straight opponents to no better than 37.3% shooting — and those five opponents have made only 39.1% of their shots resulting in 61.6 Points-Per-Game. The Tritons have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games including twelve of those fifteen games played on the road. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after beating a fellow Big West Conference rival including seven of those nine games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after winning three or more games in a row. UC-San Diego ranks second in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and they lead the nation on the road by forcing turnovers in 23.2% of their opponent’s possessions. This is a nightmare matchup for the Wolverines since they rank 328th in the nation by turning the ball over 19.8% of the time. And while Michigan’s size helps them outrebound their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, the Tritons have covered the point spread in 12 of their 13 games this season against teams who are outrebounding their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. On the road, UC-San Diego has a 17-2 record with an average winning margin of +17.9 PPG. They hold their opponents to -2.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. They rank 13th in the nation on the road by holding their opponents to just 46.0% shooting inside the arc. When on the road, they are limiting their opponents to making just 39.1% of their shots resulting in 61.6 PPG. The Tritons also rank 17th in the nation on the road by making 55.8% of their shots inside the arc. This is a team with a great profile to pull off upsets in the Big Dance. They make the most of their possessions by ranking sixth in the nation by turning the ball over just 13.4% of the time. They also rank eighth in the nation by taking 49.6% of their shots from behind the arc. UC-San Diego has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against non-conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 140s. They have covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog. The Wolverines do make 47.4% of their shots — but the Tritons have covered the point spread in 13 of their 15 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. Michigan benefited from the Badgers only making 22.1% of their shots on Sunday — that was their best defensive effort of the season which may speak more about Wisconsin’s poor shooting than their defense. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after beating a fellow Big Ten rival. There have been 19 times in head coach Dustin May’s coaching career when his team held an opponent to no better than 33% shooting — and they failed to cover the point spread in 12 of those following games. On the road, Michigan is scoring -1.9 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. It is telling that the Wolverines only outscored their conference opponents by +0.4 PPG which betrays their 17-6 record.

FINAL TAKE: May’s teams in his coaching career have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 12 games played on a neutral court when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em. The Tritons have covered the point spread in all 5 of their games this season played on a neutral court. 8* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the UC-San Diego Tritons (769) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Drake Bulldogs (765) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (766) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (30-3) has won seven games in a row and 18 of their last 19 contests after their 63-48 victory against Bradley as a 4-point favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on March 9th. Missouri (22-11) has lost four of their last five games after their 95-81 loss to Florida as an 8.5-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Intrust Bank Arena in Wichita, Kansas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Drake head coach Ben McCollum has constructed a style of play that is ideal for a mid-major to pull off upsets in the NCAA Tournament. They play at the slowest pace in the country — both the 22.0 seconds they take per possession and the 58.9 adjusted possessions they average per game represent the slowest marks in the nation. They also emphasize generating more possessions. They rank 10th in the nation by forcing 22.1% turnovers in their opponent’s possessions. They also rank 17th in the nation by pulling down 36.0% of their missed shots. This approach has been effective as they beat both their power conference opponents this season, Vanderbilt and Kansas State. Drake has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against opponents winning 60-80% of their games. And while the Tigers outscore their opponents by +10.7 Points-Per-Game, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their 9 games this season against teams who were outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Drake will play this game with confidence and should build off their momentum since they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after beating a fellow conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning two or more games in a row. Their style of play travels since it is not dependent on shooting the ball well. The Bulldogs have a 16-1 record on the road with an average winning margin of +8.6 Points-Per-Game. They score +2.7 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road — and they hold their opponents to -2.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when away from home. Drake has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. They have also covered the point spread in all 6 of their games this season as an underdog. This is a good matchup for the Bulldogs since the Tigers are an offensive-focused team that can lose focus on defense. Missouri wants to go at a fast pace — the 16.5 seconds they average per possession ranks 55th in the nation. They make 48.5% of their shots which results in 84.5 PPG — but Drake has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. Expect the Bulldogs to win the tempo battle which will frustrate this Missouri. The Tigers do crash the glass to get extra scoring possessions as they rank 66th in the nation by rebounding 33.7% of their missed shots. But Drake defends its defensive glass as they rank 24th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 25.8% of their missed shots. I don’t think Missouri flips the switch after stumbling into this tournament since they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games on the road after losing their last game. And while they have played nine straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. They allowed the Gators to make 61.8% of their shots in their last game which was the worst defensive effort of the season. While I often think outlier efforts like that warrant a visit from the Regression Gods, the Tigers have seen six of their last nine opponents make at least 50% of their shots. Their last five opponents have made 50.2% of their shots resulting in 90.4 PPG.  Missouri ranks 71st in the nation and ninth in the SEC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 300th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 32.2% of their missed shots. They rank 239th in the nation in defensive free throw rate — and Drake ranks 11th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. On the road, the Tigers allow their opponents to make 48.1% of their shots resulting in 81.8 PPG. They surrender +2.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They rank 350th in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and they rank 339th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 35.3% of their missed shots. They also rank 324th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 56.9% of their shots inside the arc. Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in March.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road against teams outside the Missouri Valley Conference — and the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* CBB Round of 64 NCAA Tournament Underdog of the Year is with the Drake Bulldogs (765) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (766). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (710) plus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (709) in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas (19-15) had won two games in a row before their 94-89 loss to Tennessee as a 9.5-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. Xavier (21-11) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped in an 89-87 loss to Marquette as a 2.5-point underdog last Thursday in the Quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Texas is a high-ceiling but low-floor squad. They have 15 losses this season — but they are also quite battle-tested after a grueling SEC campaign that features 14 teams that made the Big Dance. The Longhorns do have three high-profile victories against Missouri, Kentucky, and Texas A&M — and all three of those accomplishments are more impressive than anything the Musketeers have done this season. Texas has four capable scorers who average double-digits led by freshman Trey Johnson who scores 19.8 Points-Per-Game. After only taking eight shots in their loss to the Volunteers last week, head coach Rodney Terry should make sure the team works their offense around him tonight. The Longhorns allowed the Volunteers to make 50% of their shots in that loss which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. But Texas has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after a straight-up loss. In one of the power rating systems I examine, the Longhorns rank 49th in the nation in Net Adjusted Efficiency — and they rise to ranking 31st in the nation using those metrics when playing on the road. They improve to 39th in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they surrender -4.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. Their improved defensive play on the road comes from their perimeter defense which ranks 47th in the nation by holding their opponents to 31.4% shooting from behind the arc. Texas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 140s. I do concede that I don’t love the profile of this team. They can be too reliant on midrange shots with their four scorers working in isolation. Terry does not have his team operate from the 3-point or the rim philosophy as ardently as many of his peers. But he has recruited talent especially Johnson who could be a top-five lottery pick in the NBA draft later this summer. At least the Longhorns usually get the most out of their possessions since they rank eighth in the nation by turning the ball over in just 14.4% of their possessions. Texas is also not great at creating extra possessions from forcing turnovers or pounding the offensive glass — although their 29.8% offensive rebounding rate is better than Xavier’s mark. But the Musketeers profile is even worse. Xavier ranks 316th in the nation by pulling down 25.2% of their missed shots. They also ran 147th in the country by forcing turnovers in only 17.6% of their opponent’s possessions. Granted, they rank sixth in the country by making 38.6% of their shots from behind the arc — but if these shots are not falling, their best Plan B to get points is to get to the free throw line, which is a precarious way to live. In their three games played on a neutral court, the Musketeers only made 35.9% of their 3s. Xavier enters the Big Dance playing its best basketball of the season — but competing in the Big East is not nearly the same as the meat grinder that was the SEC this year. Their only Quad One victory this season was against Marquette — but the Longhorns played 12 games against ten SEC teams since the beginning of 2025 that rank higher according to the power rankings system referenced earlier. The Musketeers rank 37th in Adjusted Net Efficiency using those numbers — and they drop to 54th in that metric when playing on the road. They rank 234th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road — and they surrender +2.3 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. Interior defense is the issue — which is why I think the playmakers of the Longhorns will have success. Xavier ranks 99th in near proximity Points-Per-Possession allowed — and they rank 201st on the road by allowing their opponents to make 53% of their shots inside the arc. In the last month of the regular season despite their winning run, the Musketeers ranked 254th in opponent’s effective field goal percentage with the culprit being this interior defense as their opponents made 55.6% of their shots inside the arc. Xavier has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games in March.

FINAL TAKE: The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. The Longhorns have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games in March including 4 of their 5 games in the Big Dance with Terry as their head coach. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (710) plus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (709). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Valley Wolverines (638) plus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (637) in the Championship Game of the Western Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah Valley (25-7) has won 10 straight games after their 68-55 victory against Seattle as a 3-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament on Friday. Grand Canyon (25-7) has won eight of their last nine games after their 75-66 victory against Cal-Baptist as an 8.5-point favorite last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Frankly, Utah Valley is a team that only wanted to endorse when playing at home during the regular season given how disparate their home/road splits are. But Grand Canyon shares a similar profile of playing much better at home than on the road. I like this situation for the Wolverines — and I think the market is either undervaluing them or overvaluing the Antelopes in this spot given the point spread. This is a team that has won 20 of their last 21 games — they have lost only one time since December 14th. They lead the WAC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 18th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line which is a reliable way to score baskets. Utah Valley is also a very good defensive team. They rank ninth in the nation by holding their opponents to 45.3% shooting inside the arc. And led by the 6’10 Carter Welling, they also rank 15th by blocking 14.2% of their opponent’s shots. They are also one of the best teams in the nation in preventing 3-point shots. They rank 23rd in the nation by limiting their opponents to taking only 33.0% of their shots from behind the arc as opposed to the 39.0% national average. The Wolverines should build off their momentum since they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after beating a fellow WAC rival. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after winning three or more games in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing for the second time in three days or less. They handcuffed Seattle last night to just a 36.4% field goal percentage — they have held their last five opponents to just 35.2% shooting which has resulted in only 59.4 Points-Per-Game. They have also nailed 49.8% of their shots over that span resulting in 77.2 PPG. Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road after a straight-up win against a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road when playing for the second time in three days or less. I don’t like the matchup for the Antelopes. Admittedly, I do like teams who create extra possessions. The Antelopes lead the WAC by rebounding 33.4% of their missed shots — and they rank fourth in the conference by forcing turnovers in 19.7% of their opponent’s possessions. But the Wolverines are stingy in both these aspects of the Four Factors. They rank second in the WAC by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 28.0% of their missed shots — and they also rank second in the conference by only turning the ball over in 16.2% of their possessions. Given that is so to score inside against Utah Valley, Grand Canyon may have to rely on their 3-point shooting tonight — but they rank 335th in the nation on the road by making only 29.0% of their 3-pointers. They also rank 311th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.1% of their possessions. The Antelopes have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when favored including nine of those 12 games played on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games with the Total set in the 140s. And while the Wolverines hold their opponents to 41.1% shooting overall, Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season meetings after the Antelopes won the rematch at home by a 75-57 score on February 1st — but Utah Valley has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging a loss. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Utah Valley Wolverines (638) plus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (637). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UC-San Diego Tritons (866) minus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (867) in the Semifinals of the Big West Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-San Diego (28-4) enters the Big West Conference Tournament on a 13-game winning streak after closing out their regular season with a 68-577 victory at UC-Davis last Saturday as a 13-point favorite. UC-Santa Barbara (21-12) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 78-72 upset victory against CS-Northridge as a 4-point underdog last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Lee’s Family Forum in Henderson, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRITONS MINUS THE POINTS: UC-San Diego should just continue to build off their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win including ten of those thirteen games played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after beating a fellow Big West rival. This is their second game since last Thursday — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games when playing for just the second time in eight days. The Tritons are a reliable road team with a 15-2 record away from home with an average winning margin of +13.0 Points-Per-Game. They excel in basketball characteristics that travel well. They are second in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.7% of their opponents’ possessions — and they lead the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.8% of their opponents’ possessions when playing on the road. This is an area where the Gauchos are vulnerable since they rank 259th in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.3% of their possessions. UC-San Diego also plays tough half-court defense on the road by holding their opponents to 41.5% shooting which is resulting in 63.9 PPG — and they are surrendering -2.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. Third, the Tritons lead the Big West by making 57.3% of their shots inside the arc in conference play. Converting these reliable shots helps them rank 16th in the nation on the road with an effective field goal percentage of 55.1%. UC-San Diego has covered the point spread 13 of their last 16 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Additionally, I am comfortable laying the double-digits despite this game being played on a neutral court since they have covered the point spread in 12 of their 16 games this season when laying 10 or more points. UC-Santa Barbara has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with one day or less of rest including six of those seven games played on the road. I don’t like the profile of this team in tournament play since they live-or-die by the 3-point shot. The Gauchos are dangerous because they rank fifth in the nation by making 39.0% of their shots from behind the arc. But the Tritons have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games this season against teams making 37% or more of their 3s. And while UC-Santa Barbara has a 46.9% field goal percentage overall this season, UC-San Diego has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams who make 45% of their shots including all seven of those games on the road. If the Gauchos are not making their 3s, then they lack a reliable Plan B. UC-Santa Barbara ranks 261st in the nation by pulling down only 27.1% of their missed shots — and they are only rebounding 26.1% of their misses in conference play. Furthermore, they rank 157th by forcing turnovers in 17.5% of their opponents’ possessions — and that mark drops to 17.0% in conference play. On the road, they are making only 43.8% of their shots which is resulting in 69.4 PPG — and they are scoring -2.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. The Gauchos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road. The Tritons hold their opponents to 40.2% shooting this season — and UC-Santa Barbara has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are not allowing their opponents to shoot better than 42% from the field. And while UC-San Diego is outscoring their opponents by +18.3 PPG overall, the Gauchos have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Santa Barbara got swept by the Tritons this season after a 77-63 loss on the road as a 10-point favorite on January 23rd. They only made 5 of their 23 shots (21.7%) of their 3s in that game — and they turned the ball over 15 times representing 22.1% of their possessions. In UC-San Diego’s 84-76 win on the road in December, the Gauchos turned the ball 18 times on 26% of their possessions. 25* CBB Big West Conference Game of the Year with UC-San Diego Tritons (866) minus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (867). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Colorado Bears (630) minus the points versus the Montana State Bobcats (843) in the Semifinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Northern Colorado (24-8) has won five games in a row after their 76-52 victory against Weber State as an 11.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of this tournament on Sunday. Montana State (15-17) has won three games in a row after their 80-60 upset victory against Idaho State as a 1.5-point favorite last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINT(S): We were on Idaho State last night — but they ran into a buzzsaw in this Montana State team who shot a season-high 63.5% from the field. And the Bengals could not hit the side of a barn either as they only made 33.3% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in the Bobcats' last 29 contests. I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods tonight after Montana State played their best game of the season. As it is, the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after a straight-up win. I do not like the profile of this team since they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. Montana State ranks 351st of 364 Division I teams by only rebounding 21.0% of their missed shots — and that mark drops to 20.7% in conference play. They also rank 298th in the nation by forcing turnovers in just 14.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and that mark drops to 14.3% in conference play. The Bobcats have a 4-14 record on the road where they are getting outscored by -4.5 PPG. They are only making 44.4% of their shots on the road resulting in just 69.1 PPG — and they are scoring -3.1 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. They also allow their opponents to make 45.2% of their shots on the road — and they are surrendering +5.5 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. Montana State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog (all of which were on the road). Northern Colorado has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with one day or less of rest. The Bears rank seventh in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 57.2%. Northern Colorado has been lax with their play on defense when playing at home this season — they rank 352nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home but still have a 10-2 record in those games. They do tighten things up on the defensive end of the court when on the road as they are surrendering a whopping -13.5 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road versus playing at home. The Bears have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Montana State wants to avenge a 73-66 loss on the road at Northern Colorado as a 6-point underdog — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities for revenge. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Northern Colorado Bears (630) minus the points versus the Montana State Bobcats (843). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Idaho State Bengals (844) minus the point(s) versus the Montana State Bobcats (843) in the Quarterfinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Idaho State (15-14) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in an 82-79 upset loss at home against Northern Arizona as a 7-point favorite last Monday. Montana State (14-17) has won two games in a row after their 75-60 win against Idaho as a 5-point favorite last Monday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINT(S): Idaho State allowed Northern Arizona to make 57.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games. But the Bengals have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. Despite the loss, this team has made 47.3% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 78.2 Points-Per-Game which is +3.4 PPG above their season average. Idaho State also ranks seventh in the nation by pulling down 38.4% of their missed shots — and they lead the nation by rebounding 39.6% of their missed shots when playing on the road. They are outscoring their opponents by +2.5 PPG when playing on the road. They also rank second in the Big Sky Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.0% of their opponent’s possessions. They are surrendering -3.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a losing record. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they covered the point spread in all five of those games on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Montana State played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding the Vandals to just 36.7% shooting last week. But the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have to cover the point spread in all five of those games played on the road. They have also failed to cover the point speed in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home against a fellow Big Sky rival. I do not like the profile of this team since they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. Montana State ranks 357th of 364 Division I teams by only rebounding 21.1% of their missed shots — and that mark drops to 20.7% in conference play. They also rank 307th in the nation by forcing turnovers in just 15.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and that mark drops to 14.3% in conference play. The Bobcats have a 3-14 record on the road where they are getting outscored by -6.0 PPG. They are only making 43.4% of their shots on the road resulting in just 68.4 PPG — and they are scoring -3.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. They also allow their opponents to make 46% of their shots on the road — and they are surrendering +3.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on the road. Montana State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog (all of which were on the road). They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams winning 51-60% of their games (all of which were on the road).

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games but the Bobcats won the most recent meeting by a 74-69 score as a 4-point home favorite on February 15th. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 7 of their 8 games this season when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Game of the Year with the Idaho State Bengals (844) minus the point(s) versus the Montana State Bobcats (843). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (812) plus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (811) in the Semifinals of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (23-9) has won four games in a row after their 77-74 victory against Marshall as an 8.5-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament yesterday. South Alabama (21-10) closed out their regular season on a two-game winning streak and five wins in their last six games after a 65-42 victory against Louisiana as a 12.5-point favorite back on February 28th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: South Alabama may be the underdog in this game but they have the advantage of getting more than a week off after claiming the top seed in the Sun Belt Conference tournament. Long layoffs like that can negatively impact some teams — but I think it will energize this Jaguars’ team given their style of play. South Alabama ranks 29th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.7% of their opponent’s possessions. This skill helped them lead the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They held the Ragin’ Cajuns to just 31.9% shooting in their final regular season game last week. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 18 of 26 games under head coach Richie Riley when they held their last opponent to no more than 55 points — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after holding their last opponent to no higher than 33.3% shooting. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road after a straight-up win. And in their last 9 games after a win by 15 or more points, they have covered the point spread in 6 of those games. Away from home, they are surrendering -2.0 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions than when they are playing at home. They rank tenth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.4% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road. They also have the 15th-best defensive free throw rate when playing on the road. They also rank third in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are scoring +1.1 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. Forcing turnovers is a skill that travels — and South Alabama has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog getting up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em under Riley. Arkansas State is outscoring their opponents by +9.9 Points-Per-Game — but the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. This is a battle of styles with the Red Wolves playing at the second-fastest pace in the conference and averaging 64 shots per game. South Alabama plays at the slowest pace in the Sun Belt Conference — and they usually win the tempo battle as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams who average 62 or more shots per game. Arkansas State surrenders +12.7 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road rather than at home — and they are giving up +4.3 more PPG when playing on the road above their season average. They rank 314th in the country in putting their opponents on the free throw line when playing on the road. They only make 42.1% of their shots when playing on the road as that clip is brought down by ranking 283rd in the nation by making only 30.5% of their shots from behind the arc on the road. The Red Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 9 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em under head coach Bryan Hodgson — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their 4 games played on a neutral court this season.  

FINAL TAKE: South Alabama swept the two regular season games between these two teams — and it should fire up this Jaguars team that they are the underdogs in this third matchup. The Red Wolves only committed five turnovers in the first meeting — but South Alabama shot 50% from behind the arc in a 76-62 win at home. In the rematch, the Jaguars pulled off a 60-56 upset victory as an 8-point road underdog on February 19th by forcing 19 turnovers in 28.8% of Arkansas State’s possessions. The nature of conference tournament play does not offer Hodgson much time to make adjustments from South Alabama’s defensive pressure in that second game. The Red Wolves have had two opportunities to avenge an upset loss this season — and they failed to cover the point spread in both games. They have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 games in their two seasons under Hodgson when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Underdog of the Year with the South Alabama Jaguars (812) plus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (811). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (842) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (841). THE SITUATION: Boise State (22-8) has won five straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after an 80-57 victory at Air Force on Tuesday. Colorado State (21-9) has won six games in a row after their 83-56 victory against San Jose State as a 16.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: This is one of the better squads for Boise State under head coach Leon Rice. They have a legitimate point guard again after bringing in San Jose State’s Alvaro Cardenas who is averaging 6.8 Assists-Per-Game. The offense is led by the 6’8 Tyson Degenhart who is scoring 17.9 Points-Per-Game. Rice also decided to lift the redshirt of freshman Pearson Carmichael who was the two-time basketball Player of the Year in Oregon because the team needs his outside shooting — he is making 35.9% of his 3-pointers. The Broncos should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home after a straight-up victory. They return home where they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. They enjoy a 13-1 record at home with an average winning margin of +21.6 PPG. On defense, they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on their home court while holding their opponents to -11.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. Colorado State leads the Mountain West Conference in 3-point shooting — but Boise State ranks 44th in the nation by holding their guests to just 29.6% shooting when playing on their home court. Rice’s defensive approach is to deny shots at the rim and limit transition opportunities. The Broncos rank second in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down only 22.6% of their missed shots. They also rank 19th in the nation on their home court in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring +9.1 more adjusted points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. Led by Degenhart, they rank 11th in the nation at home by making 60.2% of their shots inside the arc. Boise State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 140s. Colorado State held the Spartans to just 40.4% shooting which was their best defensive effort in their last five contests. But the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after a straight-up win at home. And while Colorado State has beaten up on their lesser competition, their best win this season was at home against this Broncos team on January 22nd in a 75-72 victory as a 1-point underdog. Boise State is outscoring their opponents by +10.3 PPG — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. I don’t love the profile of this team because they lack a reliable Plan B if their shots are not falling. They rank 269th in the nation by rebounding only 26.9% of their missed shots. They rank 195th in the nation by forcing turnovers in only 17.0% of their opponent’s possessions. Granted, they are a good shooting team that is making 47.6% of their shots — but the Broncos have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home against teams who are making at least 45% of their shots. Boise State also outrebounds their opponents by +7.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who are outrebounding their opponents by +5.0 or more RPG. The Rams go back on the road where they have a 7-7 record and get outscored -0.9 PPG. They allow their opponents to score +3.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. But it is their shooting that really suffers when they are away from home as they score -6.0 fewer PPG and -10.3 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions. While they nail 39.3% of their 3-pointers when playing at home, that mark plummets to a 31.2% clip when playing on the road which ranks 250th in the nation. They also turn the ball over in 19.7% of their possessions on the road which ranks 294th in the nation — so that does not help their cause. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 140s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games away from home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when playing with revenge on their mind. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year is with the Boise State Broncos (842) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (841). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alcorn State Braves (306510) minus the point(s) versus the Texas Southern Tigers (306509). THE SITUATION: Alcorn State (9-19) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 71-55 victory against Prairie A&M as a 9-point favorite on Saturday. Texas Southern (13-16) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 67-52 loss at Jackson State as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE POINT(S): The records of teams competing in the Southwest Athletic Conference need to be taken with a grain of salt. Alcorn State opened their season with 14 straight losses — but the first 13 games were all on the road against teams outside the SWAC. Analytics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks the Braves’ non-conference schedule as the sixth most challenging in the nation. This is a team much better than their record — as evidenced by a loss in overtime at South Alabama earlier in the season. They have won nine of their last 14 games — and they have won five of their last seven contests. In their last five games, they are making 48.8% of their shots which is resulting in 74.8 Points-Per-Game. The Braves have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a win on their home court. And while this is their second game since February 22nd, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing for the second time in eight days. This is just their eighth game at home all season — they are 6-1 with an average winning margin of +12.4 PPG. They rank second in the SWAC in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home. Alcorn State has covered the point spread in 6 of their 7 games this season. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games when favored this year. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Texas Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 15 or more points. They stay on the road where they have a 4-12 record with an average losing margin of -10.0 PPG. They rank sixth in the SWAC in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road in conference play. They rank 347th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road — and they only rank 11th in that metric in conference play. They are only making 40.3% of their shots on the road resulting in 68.3 PPG. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Alcorn State is a good offensive rebounding team that ranks third in the SWAC by pulling down 35.1% of their missed shots — and Texas Southern ranks 10th in the conference by allowing their conference opponents to rebound 33.3% of their missed shots. The Tigers play at the third-fastest pace in the SWAC and they average 62 shots per game. The Braves have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who average 62 or more shots per game. And while Texas Southern is a good defensive team that holds their opponents to 40.6% shooting, Alcorn State has covered the point spread 5 of their last 6 games against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42.0% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: The Braves want to avenge a 66-57 loss at Texas Southern as a 9.5-point underdog on January 18th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Southwest Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Alcorn State Braves (306510) minus the point(s) versus the Texas Southern Tigers (306509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seattle University Redhawks (784) plus the point(s) versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (783). THE SITUATION: Seattle University (11-16) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 72-48 victory against Cal-Baptist as a 5-point favorite on Thursday. Grand Canyon (21-6) has won four games in a row as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after their 85-71 victory against UT-Arlington as a 12.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINT(S): Seattle has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home after a win at home by 20 or more points. The Redhawks stay at home where they have a 9-4 record with an average winning margin of +15.5 Points-Per-Game. They rank second in the Western Athletic Conference in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the home court in conference play. They lead the WAC by making 52.9% of their shots inside the arc. Seattle does several things quite well. They rank 22nd in the nation in getting to the free throw line. They rank 35th in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down just 26.5% of their missed shots. They rank 43rd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and that mark rises to a 22.7% clip in conference play. The Antelopes are vulnerable in this department as they rank 318th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.6% of their possessions when playing on the road. Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of the last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after beating a fellow WAC rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. The Antelopes are scoring -7.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Redhawks want to avenge an 83-74 loss at Grand Canyon as a 10-point underdog on January 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games when playing with revenge. 8* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Seattle University Redhawks (784) plus the point(s) versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (783). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (764) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (763). THE SITUATION: Texas (16-12) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 86-81 loss in overtime at Arkansas on Wednesday. Georgia (17-11) snapped a four-game losing streak with an 88-83 upset victory against Florida as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas allowed the Razorbacks to make 46.6% of their shots which was the second-worst defensive effort in their last ten games. The Longhorns have covered the point spread in 20 of their 30 games after a straight-up loss under head coach Rodney Terry. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss on the road. Despite their 12 losses this season, Texas remains on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament — but they need to start registering some victories for the win column again. They have three impressive wins against Missouri, Kentucky, and Texas A&M on their resume. After playing their last two games on the road, they return home for the first time since February 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing their last two games on the road. The Longhorns have an 11-5 record with an average winning margin of +16.0 Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to 41.1% shooting which is resulting in 67.8 PPG. They are also making 49.4% of their shots at home which is resulting in 83.8 PPG. They rank 25th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home — and they are scouring +7.2 more points per 100 possessions when at home. Texas has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games played in March. Georgia nailed 53.8% of their shots in their upset win against Florida which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. They also played their best defensive game in their last three contests after holding the Gators to 40.9% shooting. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win at home. They go back on the road where they have a 3-8 record with an average losing margin of -9.4 PPG. They are only making 40.0% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 64.4 PPG. While they rank 31st in the nation at home in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they drop to 122nd in the nation when on the road in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They only make 26.6% of their shots from behind the arc on the road which drags down their effective field goal percentage to 48.7% — those marks rank 357th and 345th in the nation respectively. They are also too loose with the basketball by turning it over in 22.5% of their possessions on the road. Furthermore, Georgia allows their opponents to pull down 40.1% of their missed shots on the road, ranking 336th in the nation. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 PPG — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB SEC Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (764) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (763). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Portland State Vikings (842) minus the points versus the Montana State Bobcats (841). THE SITUATION: Portland State (16-12) has lost two games in a row after their 60-58 upset loss at Weber State as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Montana State (12-16) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in an 89-85 upset loss against Montana as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland State made only 41.8% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 contests. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row. They return home where they have a 10-1 record with an average winning margin of +20.1 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 36.5% shooting at home which is resulting in 60.1 PPG. They also make 51.3% of their shots at home which is resulting in 82.2 PPG. Portland State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record. Even if the Vikings are not shooting the ball well, they have other ways of generating possessions. Portland State leads the Big Sky Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.7% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank second in the conference by pulling down 19.8% of their missed shots. Montana State struggles to generate extra possessions. They are last in the Big Sky by forcing turnovers in just 14.4% of their opponent’s possessions — and they also rank last in the conference by pulling down only 21.3% of their missed shots. The Bobcats made 53.6% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. But Montana State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. They go back on the road where they are just 2-13 this season with an average losing margin of -7.3 PPG. They are only making 42.2% of their shots on the road which is resulting in just 68.3 PPG. They also allow their opponents to make 46.1% of their shots when on the road which is resulting in 75.7 PPG. Montana State has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings look to avenge a 74-73 loss on the road against the Bobcats as a 3.5-point underdog on February 1st. Portland State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Portland State Vikings (842) minus the points versus the Montana State Bobcats (841). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (696) minus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (695). THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (20-7) has lost two games in a row after their 77-69 upset loss against Tennessee as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Vanderbilt (18-9) snapped a three-game losing streak in a 77-72 win against Mississippi as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Texas A&M only made 39.0% of their shots which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Aggies are not a great shooting team — but they lead the nation in offensive rebounding by pulling down 41.8% of their missed shots. They should dominate the Commodores on the glass tonight since Vanderbilt ranks 171st in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.1% of their missed shots when playing on the road. Texas A&M combines these second-chance scoring opportunities with a stout defense that ranks sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Aggies play for the second time since last Tuesday — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. They stay at home where they have a 12-2 record with an average winning margin of +15.7 Points-Per-Game. They lead the nation by rebounding 45.1% of their missed shots. They also rank 11th at home in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they limit their guests to 37.0% shooting which results in only 61.2 PPG. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Vanderbilt made 46.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. They also held the Rebels to 41.7% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games and tied for the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage in their last 14 games. The Commodores are not a good defensive team — and that makes this matchup with the Aggies even more perilous for them. They rank 74th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their last five opponents made 49.3% of their shots against them resulting in 78.6 PPG. Against SEC competition, they have allowed their conference rivals to make 50.8% of their shots resulting in 79.2 PPG. Vanderbilt has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win against an SEC rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win at home against a conference foe. They go back on the road where they have a 5-7 record with an average losing margin of -4.3 PPG. They drop to 90th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road with the problem being their half-court defense. The Commodores rank 350th in the nation on the road with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 59.1% They rank 359th on the road with their opponents making 40.0% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 342nd in the nation on the road with their opponents making 58.1% of their shots inside the arc. Overall, Vandy allows their opponents to make 51.5% of their shots when playing on the road which is resulting in 78.8 PPG. But they are only making 44.5% of their shots on the road including just 33.3% of their shots from behind the arc. Vanderbilt has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Commodores thrive on defense by forcing turnovers in 20.7% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 33rd in the nation. But the Aggies are even better in that area as they force turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 30th in the nation. Texas A&M is vulnerable to being too loose with the basketball as they rank 245th in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.2% of their possessions. But when playing at home in the rugged SEC this season, the Aggies are turning the ball over in just 15.0% of their possessions. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month is with the Texas A&M Aggies (696) minus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (695). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (846) minus the points versus the UMKC Roos (845). THE SITUATION: South Dakota State (18-10) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 77-68 upset loss against North Dakota State as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday. UMKC (10-17) has lost two games in a row after their 78-66 upset loss against Nebraska-Omaha as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JACKRABBITS MINUS THE POINTS: South Dakota State only made 39.4% of their shots against the Bison on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 25 games. They should shoot the basketball better this afternoon. The Jackrabbits have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in all 3 of their games this season following an upset loss. South Dakota State is 12-1 on their home court this season with an average winning margin of +18.1 net Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to 39.2% shooting which has resulted in 70.4 PPG. They also nail 51.9% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 88.5 PPG. The Jackrabbits ranks tenth in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 59.6% of their home court. They are converting 60.4% of their shots inside the arc which ranks 14th in the nation. South Dakota State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home. UMKC has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games this season after suffering an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss to a fellow Summit League rival. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing two games in a row. On the road, they have a 2-12 record with an average losing margin of -8.4 net PPG. They are only making 38.4% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 64.4 PPG. They are also allowing their opponents to make 46.1% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 72.8 PPG. Where the Roos are particularly vulnerable against the Jackrabbits is their interior defense. UMKC ranks 309th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 54.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they rank 310th in the nation on the road with their opponents making 56.3% of their 2-pointers. The Roos do rely on crashing the glass as they rank second in the Summit League by pulling down 35.2% of their shots in conference play. But good luck to them for getting second-chance scoring opportunities against this South Dakota State team that leads the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 22.1% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: UMKC wants to avenge a 65-64 loss at home against South Dakota State as a 4-point home underdog back on January 23rd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in their 2 opportunities to avenge a loss at home this season. The Jackrabbits have covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games at home this season when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season when laying double-digits. 10* CBB UMKC-South Dakota State CBS Sports Network Special with the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (846) minus the points versus the UMKC Roos (845). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Morgan State Bears (306634) plus the points versus the Howard Bison (306633). THE SITUATION: Morgan State (11-14) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 92-78 upset win at UNC-Central as a 9-point underdog on Monday. Howard (11-15) won for the third time in their last four contests in an 86-82 win against Maryland-Eastern Shore as a 12.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINT(S): Morgan State has won four of their last six games — and they should build off the momentum of their victory earlier this week. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after pulling off an upset victory against a fellow Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. Now after playing their last three games on the road, they return home for the first time since February 1st where they have an 8-3 record with an averaging winning margin of +15.0 net Points-Per-Game. They are nailing 53.2% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 87.2 Points-Per-Game. They are also holding their guests to 40.4% shooting at home. They rank second in the MEAC with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.8%. They rank second in the conference with their conference visitors only making 49.8% of the shots inside the arc. They also rank 58th in the country by holding their guests to just a 29.8% clip from behind the arc — and their MEAC rivals are shooting only 29.4% from 3-point range on their home court. Morgan State has covered the point spread in 7 of their 9 boarded games at home this season. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em including four of those five circumstances this season. The Bears rank 58th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line when playing at home. And while they sacrifice defensive rebounding for getting out on the fast break, the Bison are last in the MEAC by pulling down only 26.7% of their missed shots. Both of these teams play at a fast pace — these two combined for 79 possessions each in Howard’s 100-95 victory back on January 11th. More on that game below — but the Bison’s lack of size will probably be a problem in this rematch. Howard does not have a starter over 6’6 — and only one of their players in their regular rotation is taller than that. Morgan State has two players in their rotation at 6’9 or taller — and they rank third in the conference by pulling down 36.1% of their missed shots. The Bison rank 318th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 33.2% of their missed shots — and their conference opponents are rebounding 34.7% of their missed shots. Howard nailed 55.9% of their shots in their win on Monday which was the second-best shooting effort in their last nine contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after beating a conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after a win against an MEAC foe. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home against a conference rival. They go back on the road where they are just 3-10 with an average losing margin of -10.8 PPG. They are allowing their opponents to make 49.3% of their shots on the road resulting in 81.6 PPG. They rank 350th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road with their opponents making 36.3% of their 3s and 58.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 271st and 331st in the nation. The Bison are the top offensive team in the MEAC but they only make 34.8% of their shots from downtown when away from home. Their fast pace leads them to get too loose with the basketball — they rank 338th in the nation by turning the ball over in 21.3% of their possessions on the road. Morgan State is third in the conference by forcing turnovers in 19.8% of their opponent’s possessions when playing at home. Howard has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 39 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Howard outlasted the Bears last month by shooting 60.0% of their shots and nailing 9 of their 12 shots from behind the arc in what was their second-best shooting effort of the season. But Morgan State has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road including all five of those circumstances this season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Morgan State Bears (306634) plus the points versus the Howard Bison (306633). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wright State Raiders (872) minus the points versus the Northern Kentucky Norse (871). THE SITUATION: Wright State (13-15) has lost two games in a row after their 79-68 upset loss at Green Bay as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Northern Kentucky (12-15) has lost two of their last three contests after their 92-70 loss at Milwaukee as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: There are not many things more humiliating in college basketball this season than losing to Green Bay who have been an utter disaster under the guidance of the devastatingly under-qualified rookie head coach Doug Gottlieb who did not even have the sense of self to quit his day job as a loudmouth radio host at Fox — but Wright State did gift the Phoenix their third victory of the entire season on Sunday. They shot only 39.3% from the field in that setback which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Head coach Clint Sargent certainly had an attentive locker room in practice this week. As it is, the Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after an upset loss to a fellow Horizon League rival. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home after losing two games in a row. This team has lost both its games that got decided in overtime — and they have lost another five games decided by three points or less. Only one of their victories has been by three points or less — so Sargent’s team probably is better than their overall record under .500 suggests. They return home where they have a 9-3 record with an average winning margin of +9.8 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to 41.7% shooting from the field — and they are giving up -4.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing at home than on the road. They also nail 49.9% of their shots on their home court which has resulted in 80.4 PPG. Wright State is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation. They rank 14th in the nation by making 38.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and that mark improves to a 40.8% clip when playing at home, ranking ninth best in the country. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored or as a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against teams with a losing record. Northern Kentucky has lost eight of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing to a Horizon League rival. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 gams after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a loss by 20 or more points. They stay on the road for the third straight game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after playing their last two games on the road. On the road, they have a 3-9 record with an average losing margin of -8.7 PPG. They only make 40.4% of their shots when on the road — and they rank 293rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency away from home. They also allow their opponents to make 46.1% of their shots when on the road which is resulting in 76.3 PPG. Of particular concern is their perimeter defense as the Norse rank 351st in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to make 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Northern Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who make 37% or more of their 3-pointers. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 140s. And in their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Norse want to avenge a 78-70 upset loss at home against Wright State as a 1.5-point favorite on January 18th. Northern Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 opportunities for revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* CBB Horizon League Game of the Year with the Wright State Raiders (872) minus the points versus the Northern Kentucky Norse (871). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (800) minus the points versus the San Houston Bearkats (799). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (14-11) has lost three games in a row after their 87-77 upset loss at home against Middle Tennessee as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Sam Houston (10-16) snapped a seven-game losing streak in a 78-76 win against Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky made only 38.6% of their shots which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Hilltoppers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. And while they had won three games in a row before this recent losing streak, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. They stay at home where they have an 11-3 record with an average winning margin of +10.7 Points-Per-Game. The Hilltoppers are holding their guests to just 39.9% shooting which is resulting in 73.1 PPG. They rank 26th in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.6% when playing at home — and they rank tenth in the nation by limiting their visitors to just a 26.5% clip from behind the arc when playing at home. This presents a major problem for the Bearkats since they only hit 46.2% of their shots inside the arc when playing on the road, ranking 302nd in the nation. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when continuing a home stand. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 home games when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games this season against teams winning 25-40% of their games. Sam Houston ended their seven-game losing streak by making 53.2% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last 13 contests. But the Bearkats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning their previous game. They go back on the road where they rank 234th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing their home hosts to make 46.8% of their shots which results in 79.1 PPG. They only make 42.9% of their shots on the road. Overall, they have a 3-13 record on the road with an average losing margin of -7.2 PPG. Sam Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 150s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 straight games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range including all seven of those games this season. Western Kentucky plays at one of the fastest paces in the nation. They rank third in the nation by averaging only 14.9 seconds per possession — and their games rank sixth in the country by averaging 72.9 possessions per game. The extra possessions help favorites cover when laying the points. And while the Hilltoppers limit their opponents to 41.4% shooting, the Bearkats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky won the first meeting between these two teams with a 75-66 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on January 25th — and Sam Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. 10* CBB Sam Houston-Western Kentucky ESPNU Special with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (800) minus the points versus the San Houston Bearkats (799). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Maine Black Bears (306604) minus the points versus the Vermont Catamounts (306603). THE SITUATION: Maine (16-9) has won eight of their last nine contests after their 73-50 victory against UMBC as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. Vermont (14-11) has won three straight games after their 79-59 victory against New Hampshire as a 14.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Maine should build off their recent momentum in this showdown between the second and third-place teams in the America East conference. The Black Bears have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home after a straight-up victory. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after beating an America East rival including six of their seven contests this season. This is a dangerous team that does a couple of things very well to put them in a position to win all of their games. First, Maine ranks 13th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.3% of their opponent’s possessions — and that clip rises to a 23.0% mark in conference play. The Catamounts are vulnerable in this area as they rank 184th in the nation by turning the ball on 18.4% of their possessions when they are playing away from home. Second, the Black Bears lead the America East by making 39.5% of their shots from behind the arc — and that mark rises to a 40.1% clip when playing at home which is the 17th-best percentage in the nation when it comes to home courts. Vermont ranks 295th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.9% of their 3s when they are playing away from home. Maine has a strong home-court advantage where they have an 8-1 record with an average winning margin of +23.2 net Points-Per-Game. According to one of the power ranking metrics I use, the Black Bears rank 207th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they improve to a 143rd rank when playing on their home court. They are making 51.4% of their shots at home which is resulting in 80.9 PPG — and they are scoring +7.3 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. They are also holding their guests to 36.8% shooting which is resulting in only 57.7 PPG — and they are giving up -1.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on their home court. Maine has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games at home including five of their last seven games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored or a pick ‘em. The Black Bears enjoy a strong situational edge in this contest after getting the week off — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing for the second time in eight days. Vermont has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with just one day of rest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home. The Catamounts made 46.7% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. But this is not a good offensive team that ranks 331st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are making only 42.2% of their shots which is resulting in 66.2 PPG — and it gets even worse when they are playing on the road where they only shoot 38.4% from the field and score just 60.4 PPG. They are scoring -8.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. Vermont ranks 245th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they drop to 272d in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have a 5-9 record on the road with an average losing margin of -7.3 PPG. The Catamounts have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 130s including all three of their games on the road this season. Vermont leads the America East in defense rebounding percentage — but that is not a helpful tactic against Maine who only pulls down 20.5% of their missed shots in conference play since they sacrificed second-chance opportunities for getting back on defense.

FINAL TAKE: The Catamounts won the first meeting between these teams by a 55-49 score as a 2-point home favorite back on February 1st — but the Black Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when avenging a loss. 25* CBB America East Game of the Year with the Maine Black Bears (306604) minus the points versus the Vermont Catamounts (306603). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (892) plus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (891). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (12-14) has lost two games in a row after their 69-66 loss at home to San Diego State as a 9-point underdog on Tuesday. Nevada (14-10) has won three games in a row after their 94-69 victory against Fresno State as a 16-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: San Jose State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two games in a row. They start at home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. San Jose State is a good shooting deep from behind the arc — they rank 74th in the nation with a 36.1% shooting percentage from 3-point land while improving that mark to a 37.4% clip in conference play which ranks second in the Mountain West Conference. The Wolf Pack are vulnerable against good outside shooting teams as they rank 337th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 38.4% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing on the road. Nevada made 61.3% of their shots against the Bulldogs on Monday which was the best shooting effort for them all season. This is the Wolf Pack’s second game since last Tuesday, February 4th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing for the second time in eight or more days including failing to cover the point spread in four straight games on the road under those circumstances. Nevada is just 4-6 on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 130s. The Wolf Pack thrive in defending their defensive glass — they rank 18th in the nation in rebounding percentage on that end of the court. But this will not help when playing the Spartans who sacrifice pounding their offensive glass for getting back on defense. And while Nevada leads the Mountain West Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions, Nevada only turns the ball over in 16.5% of their possessions in conference play.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolf Pack won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 18th by a 75-64 score — but San Jose State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 opportunities for revenge including six of their last seven games when they are playing on their home court. 8* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the San Jose State Spartans (892) plus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (891). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-Irvine Anteaters (832) minus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (831). THE SITUATION: UC-Irvine (20-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 85-67 upset loss at home against UC-San Diego as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. UC-Santa Barbara (16-8) has won three games in a row after their 76-72 win against Hawai’i as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ANTEATERS MINUS THE POINTS: UC-Irvine comes off their worst game of the season on Saturday. They allowed the Tritons to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. They only made 38.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contest. The Anteaters have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 3 of the 4 games in the last two seasons after giving up 85 or more points in their last contest. UC-Irvine is an outstanding defensive team that ranks 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are holding their opponents to 38.9% shooting which is resulting in 66.0 Points-Per-Game. They also rank 20th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down only 25.7% of their missed shots. They stay at home where they have an 8-1 record this season with an averaging winning margin of +14.9 PPG. The Anteaters have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. UC-Santa Barbara allowed the Rainbow Warriors to make 52.1% of their shots on Saturday which was the third time in their last four games where they gave up 49.2% or worse shooting from the field. The Gauchos have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after beating a Big West Conference rival in their previous game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning three or more games in a row including failing to cover the point spread in those last five circumstances. They go back on the road where have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 140s. UC-Santa Barbara leads the Big West with an effective field goal percentage of 56.4% — but the Anteaters also lead the conference in defensive effective field goal percentage while ranking 12th in the nation overall with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.5%. When playing at home, UC-Irvine ranks second in the nation by limiting their opponents to 38.2% shooting inside the arc. The Gauchos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who are not giving up more than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine is outscoring their opponents by +9.8 PPG — and UC-Santa Barbara has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG including all four of those games this season. The Anteaters have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games at home against teams winning 60-80% of their games. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the UC-Irvine Anteaters (832) minus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (831). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Illinois-Chicago Flames (635) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (636). THE SITUATION: Illinois-Chicago (15-10) has suffered three-straight upset losses after a 79-67 loss at Southern Illinois as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. Murray State (12-13) snapped a four-game losing streak with a 74-56 win at Valparaiso as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Maybe playing the role of the underdog will get Illinois-Chicago going again. They have already pulled off two impressive upset victories against Yale and Drake this season. They only make 41.5% of their shots against the Salukis which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last eight games. The Flames have been a better team playing away from home this season. One of the power rankings systems I consider ranks them 194th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home — but they improve to ranking 98th in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have an 8-5 record on the road with an average winning margin of +2.7 Points-Per-Game. They are scoring +5.9 points per 100 possessions when playing from home while holding their opponents to -2.2 fewer points per 100 possessions. They rank 21st with an effective field goal percentage of 54.9% away from home — they rank 50th by making 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc and 30th with a 55.2% shooting clip inside the arc. They also rank 26th in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 26.0% of their missed shots when they are playing on the road. Illinois-Chicago has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as a dog or as a pick ‘em. Murray State nailed 49.1% of their shots on Saturday in what was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. They also held the Crusaders to 35.0% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last eight contests. The Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home after a straight-up win. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games after playing on the road in their previous game. Murray State has been a better team on the road this season where they rank 130th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to 251st in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when they play at home. They are just 5-5 on their home court where they rank 209th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their guests are making 52.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 274th in the country. They are giving up +3.0 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home — and they are scoring -5.5 fewer points per 100 possessions. The Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games at home including 7 of their 9 games this season. Three have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. Murray State has not been a reliable favorite lately since they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games when favored including 10 of their last 15 games when laying the points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. And while Illinois-Chicago is making 47.4% of their shots, the Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games against teams making 45% or more of their shots from the field.

FINAL TAKE: The Flames won the first meetings between these two teams in a 97-93 victory at home as a 3-point favorite on January 15th — and Murray State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss this season. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Underdog of the Year with the Illinois-Chicago Flames (635) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Southeastern Louisiana Lions (306661) plus the points versus the Incarnate Word Cardinals (306662). THE SITUATION: Southeastern Louisiana (14-8) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 81-79 victory against Lamar as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Incarnate Word (11-13) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 67-65 loss at McNeese State as a 15.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Southeastern Louisiana should continue their recent stretch of playing good basketball in the Southland Conference. The Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory against a fellow conference rival. On the road, they have a winning 8-6 record — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road. Southeastern Louisiana ranks 50th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 19.5% of their opponents’ possessions. They also rank 43rd in the country by holding their opponents to a 30.6% shooting percentage from behind the arc when they are playing on the road. Furthermore, in conference play, the Lions rank second in getting to the free throw line — and the Cardinals rank eighth in the Southland Conference in defensive free throw rate. Southeastern Louisiana has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 140s. Incarnate Word held McNeese State to a 49.2% shooting percentage on Monday which was the second-best defensive effort in their last five games. The Cardinals have allowed their last five opponents to make 52.9% of their shots. They rank 10th in the Southland Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are last in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.1% while ranking 11th in both opponent 3-point shooting and opponent 2-point shooting inside the arc. They are pulling down 33.8% of their missed shots in conference play, ranking fourth, but the Lions lead the Southland Conference by holding their opponents to rebounding just 28.6% of their missed shots. Incarnate Word has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games at home including five of their eight games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: Southeastern Louisiana won the first meeting between these two teams by an 86-63 score as a 3-point favorite at home on January 25th. Under head coach Shane Heirman, the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 opportunities to avenge a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their 15 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Southeastern Louisiana Lions (306661) plus the points versus the Incarnate Word Cardinals (306662). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (744) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (743). THE SITUATION: Texas (15-7) has won three of their last four games after their 89-58 victory as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Arkansas (13-8) has won two of their last three games after their 89-79 upset victory as an 8-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas managed to blowout the Tigers over the weekend despite allowing them to make 45.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four contests. The Longhorns nailed 56.3% of their shots to easily win that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after hitting at least 55% of their shots in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. And in their last 5 games at home after a win by 15 or more points, they have covered the point spread in 4 of those games. Texas returns home where they have a 10-3 record with an average winning margin of +21.8 net Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to 39.2% shooting on their home court which is resulting in just 63.5 PPG. They are also nailing 51.7% of their shots from the field at home which is resulting in 85.3 PPG. The Longhorns rank 18th in the nation by making 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc — and they face a Razorbacks team that ranks 325th by allowing their opponents to make 37.9% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing away from home. Texas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games last home. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games with the Total set in the 140s. Arkansas made 55.2% of their shots on Saturday against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. But the Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a straight-up victory. They stay on the road where they are getting outscored by -2.6 PPG while sporting a losing 4-5 record. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. In SEC play, they are only making 39.0% of their shots which is resulting in 67.4 PPG which is -9.4 fewer points than their season average. The Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: The Razorbacks are outscoring their opponents by +8.2 PPG — but Texas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. The Longhorns are outscoring their opponents by +12.7 PPG — and Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams who are scoring +8.0 or more PPG including five of their last seven games on the road. 10* CBB Arkansas-Texas ESPN2 Special with the Texas Longhorns (744) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (743). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Idaho State Bengals (884) plus the point(s) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). THE SITUATION: Idaho State (10-10) has won two games in a row and four of their last six contests after their 87-71 victory against Idaho as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Northern Colorado (16-6) has won two games in a row and ten of their last 11 contests with an 87-69 victory against Northern Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINT(S): Idaho State should build on their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win at home. They stay at home where they have a 6-2 record with an average winning margin of +10.4 net Points-Per-Game. One power rankings system I look at places the Bengals as the #217th team in the nation — but they rise to #176 when playing on their home court. They are scoring +3.6 more points per 100 possessions on their home court while giving up -3.0 fewer points per 100 possessions. They limit their guests to 41.0% shooting which results in 64.4 Points-Per-Game. Idaho State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games with the Total set in the 140s. They are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation as they pull down 40.1% of their missed shots. And while the Bears allow their opponents to make 45.8% of their shots, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who allow their opponents to make 45.0% or more of their shots from the field. Northern Colorado played their best defensive game in their last five contests by holding Northern Arizona to just 40.3% shooting. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when favored. Northern Colorado has a 10-1 record when they are playing at home — but they are just 6-5 when playing away from home where they are scoring -6.2 fewer points per 100 possessions. They are great shooting team inside the arc that ranks sixth in the nation by making 60.1% of their 2-pointers. But the Bears lack a Plan B — especially on the road. They rank 335th on the road in getting to the free-throw line. They only pull down 23.5% of their missed shots away from home, ranking 326th in the nation. They nail just 29.9% of their 3-pointers on the road, ranking 293rd. And they only force turnovers in 16.9% of their opponent’s possessions on the road, ranking 176th. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of rather last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s. And while Idaho State outrebounds their opponents by +10.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals look to avenge a 93-92 loss on the road against the Bears on January 4th as an 8-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 10* CBB Monday Late Show Bailout with the Idaho State Bengals (884) plus the point(s) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (828) minus the points versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (827). THE SITUATION: Tulane (11-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-56 loss to Memphis as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. Tulsa (9-12) has lost three of their last four contests after their 78-68 loss to UAB as a 7-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulane only made 36.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests. They should shoot better this afternoon considering they are making 45.2% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 79.3 Points-Per-Game. The Green Wave has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. They stay at home for this one where they have a 9-3 record with an average winning margin of +16.1 net Points-Per-Game. Tulane has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when favored or as a pick ‘em. The Green Wave ranks 131st in the nation in net efficiency according to one power ranking system — but they rise to 104th in the nation when they are playing on their home court. They are scoring +4.6 more points per 100 possessions when at home. Even better, they are limiting their guests to -7.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing at home. Tulsa held the Blazers to a 44.6% shooting clip on Wednesday which was the best defensive performance in their last three contests. But the Golden Hurricane has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home. They go back on the road where they have lost six of their eight games this season — and they are getting outscored by -9.0 PPG. Tulsa has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games on the road with the Total set in the 140s. The Golden Hurricane is making only 38.5% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 69.6 PPG. They are scoring only 94.5 points per 100 possessions on the road which not only ranks 344th in the nation but also -11.1 fewer points per 100 possessions than their scoring efficiency on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: The Golden Hurricane has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog. 8* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Tulane Green Wave (828) minus the points versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (652) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (651). THE SITUATION: BYU (13-6) has won two games in a row after their 80-52 victory as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Baylor (13-6) has won two games in a row as well after their 76-61 win at Utah as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has seen two recent developments that are very encouraging for them moving forward. First, freshman forward Egor Demin broke out on Saturday with 15 points, five rebounds, and seven assists. The potential lottery pick in the NBA draft demonstrated his potential in November but hit a wall the last two months. He takes on the role as a point forward who can facilitate the offense of the Cougars’ balanced scoring attack. Second, BYU has played much better on defense since Mawot Mag was inserted into the starting lineup for the thin freshman jump shooter Kanon Catchings. Mag is a 6’7 senior who offers the team a more physical presence. BYU has held their last four opponents to 1.00, 0.99, 1.02, and 0.87 Points-Per-Possession which is far below the 1.04 PPP average scoring efficiency in the Big 12. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games after a win by 15 or more points. BYU’s improved play on defense deserves attention since they are already such a good offensive basketball team. They are scoring 80.4 Points-Per-Game — and they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. After making 58.5% of their shots against Colorado, they nailed 57.1% of their shots against the Bearcats — and it was the third time in their last four games they made at least 51.9% of their shots. Two of the Cougars' losses this season were in overtime including their most recent loss against Utah. They stay at home where they have a 10-1 record with an average winning margin of +26.3 net PPG. They are making 51.1% of their shots at home which is resulting in 87.4 PPG — and they are holding their opponents to 38.8% shooting which is resulting in 61.1 PPG. BYU has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. This is a great matchup for them. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. The Bears crash the glass — but the Cougars rank fourth in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding 23.0% of their missed shots. They also rank 34th by pulling down 35.4% of their missed shots — and Baylor ranks 224th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.8% of their misses. BYU also ranks 26th by nailing 38.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home — and the Bears rank 331st by allowing their opponents to make 37.0% of the shots from behind the arc. Baylor enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last three games against the Utes despite only making 43.9% of their shots — they failed to make more than 39.7% of their shots in their previous two games. Two of their wins this season were in overtime — so while these teams have identical records, it could easily be different results. They were down to a six-man rotation on Saturday given a concussion to Jeremy Roach and an ankle injury to Langston Love. Both players are questionable to play tonight — so the Bears may be reduced to a six-man rotation against tonight in another high-altitude game on short rest. As it is, Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road after winning their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 15 or more points. The Bears are 12-1 at home — but they are just 5-5 on the road where they are getting outscored by -2.3 net PPG. They rank 323rd away from home with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.0% — and they rank 348th by allowing these opponents to make 38.8% of their 3-pointers. Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: BYU is outscoring their opponents by +14.2 PPG — and they rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency on their home court. Baylor ranks 63rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. The Bears are outscoring their opponents by +12.1 PPG — but the Cougars have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams who outscore their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB Big 12 Game of the Month with the BYU Cougars (652) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (651). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UC-Irvine Anteaters (818) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (817). THE SITUATION: UC-Irvine (17-3) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped in an 84-80 upset loss at UC-Riverside as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Hawai’i (12-7) has lost two of their last three games after a 68-66 loss at UC-Davis as a 2-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ANTEATERS MINUS THE POINTS: UC-Irvine allowed the Highlanders to make 45.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. They had held their previous five opponents to no better than 37.5% shooting. The Anteaters have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing for the second time in three days. They rank eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they return home where they are holding their guests to 34.8% shooting which is resulting in 61.7 Points-Per-Game. They have won all six of their games at home by an average winning margin of +23.0 PPG. They also generate +4.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on their home court. UC-Irvine has covered the point spread in all 5 of their boarded home games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when playing for the second time in three days — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time on the road in three days. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 130s. This is a terrible matchup for the Rainbow Warriors. They are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the nation — but UC-Irvine does not prioritize crashing the glass. Hawai’i ranks ninth in the nation in getting to the free throw line — but the Anteaters rank third in the nation in defensive free throw rate. The Rainbow Warriors rank 38th in the nation by making 56.3% of their shots inside the arc — but UC-Irvine ranks fourth in the nation on their home court with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 40.5% — and they rank second in the nation with their opponents only hitting 38.8% of their shots inside the arc at home. Hawai’i outrebounds their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — but the Anteaters have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. UC-Irvine outrebounds their opponents by +5.0 RPG — and the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG including 4 of their last 5 games on the road. To compound matters, Hawai’i ranks 324th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.4% of their possessions — and it gets even worse on the road where they turn the ball over in 23.4% of their possessions which is the 350th worst rate in the nation. The Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who winning 80% or more of their games. And while the Anteaters are outscoring their opponents by +11.3 PPG, Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG including five of those seven games this season.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games this season at home laying 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when laying 3.5 to 12 points. 25* CBB Big West Game of the Month with the UC-Irvine Anteaters (818) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (817). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the James Madison Dukes (794) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (793). THE SITUATION: James Madison (9-8) has lost two games in a row after their 86-66 loss at Appalachian State as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Marshall (10-8) has won three of their last four contests after their 81-69 victory against Georgia Southern as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUKES MINUS THE POINTS: James Madison comes off what was probably the worst game of their season. They only made 34.8% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark in their last five games and second-lowest of the season. They allowed the Mountaineers to nail 53.8% of their shots as well which was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 contests. The Dukes should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. After playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have a 7-1 record with an average winning margin of +16.0 Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to just 39.3% shooting which is resulting in 64.5 PPG — and they are making 48.7% of their shots at home which is generating 80.5 PPG in front of their home fans. James Madison has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 home games when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. The Dukes are a good rebounding team that is outrebounding their opponents by +6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game. They rank 77th in the nation by pulling down 33.7% of their shots. They also rank 39th by holding their opponents to 26.3% of their missed shots. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all seven of those games played on the road. The Thundering Herd thrives at 3-point defense — but that is not an area of strength for the Dukes. Marshall shot 50% from the field in their win against Georgia Southern which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games this season after winning at home in their last game. The other thing that Marshall does well is getting to the free throw line where they lead the Sun Belt Conference and 41st in the nation. But they are last in the conference by converting on only 62.9% of their shots at the charity stripe. Interior defense is a concern for this team as they are last in the Sun Belt with their opponents making 55.9% of their shots inside the arc. They have lost all six of their true road games by an average losing margin of -12.8 PPG. They are allowing their home hosts to nail 50.0% of their shots which is resulting in 79.5 PPG — and they are only making 39.0% of their shots and scoring 66.7 PPG. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 20 games as an underdog including five of their six games this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Thundering Herd won the first meeting between these two teams with an 80-78 victory as a 1-point home favorite on January 9th — but the Dukes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month is with the James Madison Dukes (794) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (793). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (712) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (711) in the Jumpman Invitational. THE SITUATION: Michigan (8-2) had won seven games in a row before their 89-87 upset loss to Arkansas as a 4-point favorite at Madison Square Garden in the Jimmy V Classic on December 10th. Oklahoma (10-0) has won their first ten games of the season after their 80-65 victory against Oklahoma State on a neutral court in Oklahoma City as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan is a talented team under first-year head coach Dusty May. The Wolverines currently rank 22nd in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy’s analytics. They are also battle-tested with five of their ten games being played away from Crisler Arena in Ann Arbor. Their two losses to Wake Forest and then the Razorbacks were by four combined points. Their signature win was in Madison against Wisconsin in a true hostile environment — and Pomeroy ranks the Badgers as his 35th team in the country. They also beat Iowa which ranks 45th by Pomeroy. The Wolverines lost to Wake Forest in Greensville. They won their multi-team event in Fort Myers. May got the Michigan job by achieving great success at Florida Atlantic including a run to the Final Four two years ago. His style of play is effective because it prioritizes seizing additional possessions. The Wolverines rank 30th in the nation by pulling down 36.2% of their missed shots. They also force turnovers in 20.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 54th in the nation. These tactics create a reliable Plan B if their shots are not falling. But the Wolverines are an efficient team on offense. They present one of the most challenging starting lineups in the country with two seven-footers. Danny Wolf is a 7’0 transfer from Yale and the 7’1 Vladislav Goldin came over with May from FAU. These two already have terrific chemistry together and this is one of the main reasons why Michigan is making 61.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking seventh in the nation. The Wolverines are turning the ball over more than they should be — their 21.4% turnover rate is the 335th worst in the nation. This is worrisome against a Sooners’ team that ranks 19th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.4% of their opponent’s possessions — but that is why the point spread is so low. I am not as concerned about this because the source of their turnovers is from their big men rather than their guards — so they are not quite as vulnerable to full-court presses which is important since the top two steal artists for Oklahoma in their starting five are guards. The Wolverines also play outstanding defense — they rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Arkansas nailed 50% of their shots against them which was Michigan’s worst defensive effort of the season. While Wake Forest made 46.4% of their shots against them in May’s second regular season game as head coach, no other team made more than Iowa’s 41.6% shots against them. May’s teams in his coaching career have covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games after giving up 85 or more points in their last game. His teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games when playing with seven or more days between games. Oklahoma’s best win this season was against an Arizona team that Pomeroy ranks at 30th. Their second-best victory was against a Louisville team that Pomeroy ranks 59th. Pomeroy rates the Sooners’ strength of schedule at 315th in the nation with five of their opponents ranking 266th or worse. For comparison's sake, Pomeroy ranks the Wolverines’ schedule as the 48th most difficult so far this season with five of their opponents in his top 101 teams — and they have only played one team ranked worse than 231rd according to his metrics. I suspect this is the game where Oklahoma’s bubble is burst on their unbeaten season as they do not match up well with Michigan. They rank 254th by allowing their opponents to pull down 31.8% of their missed shots. They also rank 204th with their opponents making 52.1% of their shots inside the arc. Their ability to force turnovers will be mitigated by the Wolverines’ significant size edge with two twin towers. The Sooners do not have a player in their starting five taller than 6’7 — and while head coach Porter Moser has three players 6’10 or taller on his bench, relying on them may not be the optimal strategy. Michigan out-rebounds their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games away from home against teams who out-rebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Wolverines rank 52nd in the nation by assisting on 58.7% of their field goals — and they average 17 Assists-Per-Game. The Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who average 16 or more Assists-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: May’s teams have covered the point spread in 10 of their 14 games in his career against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month is with the Michigan Wolverines (712) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Maine Black Bears (306533) plus the points versus the Duquesne Dukes (306534). THE SITUATION: Maine (6-5) had won two games in a row before their 87-72 loss at Fordham as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. Duquesne (2-7) has won two of their last three games after their 80-66 win against Delaware as a 3.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: As long as Doug Gottlieb is still at Wisconsin-Green Bay, the title of most unqualified head coach in Division I college basketball is taken — but the Dukes’ rookie head coach Dru Joyce III would be a contender for this moniker. After being an assistant at Cleveland State for four years, Joyce III was promoted to associate head coach at Duquesne in the last two years before he replaced the retiring Keith Dambrot in the offseason. Joyce’s father and brother are both high school coaches in Ohio. Oh, and Joyce is a close friend of LeBron James after being teammates together on the same high school team. The results are not encouraging so far. After losing their first seven games, the Dukes finally got off the Schneid with victories against Old Dominion and Delaware — although both those teams only rank 327th and 232nd in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy’s analytics. The offense lacks movement and too often devolves into a “my turn, your turn” slog. Duquesne ranks 271st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win at home. This is their second game since December 3rd — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing for the second time in eight or more days. At home, Duquesne has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 130s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Maine only made 39.4% of their shots against the Rams on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed Fordham to make 50.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. They should play better tonight -- and the Black Bears have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road after losing on the road in their last game. This is their second game since December 3rd as well — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for just the second time in eight or more days. Maine is a solid team in the third season under head coach Chris Markwood. The Black Bears ranked 51st in returning minutes (from a 15-16 squad) — and they rank 86th in Division I experience. They have quality wins against Elon and Brown, which currently rank 145th and 176th in Pomeroy’s rankings (for comparison's sake, Maine ranks 220th and Duquesne ranks 218th in those rankings). The Black Bears rank in the top half of Division I by ranking 126th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They thrive in forcing turnovers — they rank 37th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.8% of their opponent’s possessions. The Dukes are vulnerable since they are turning the ball over in 18.0% of their possessions, ranking 192nd. Duquesne likes to force turnovers as well at a 20.1% rate — but Maine ranks 106th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 16.3% of their possessions. The Dukes turn the ball over 12 times per game — and the Black Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who do not turn the ball more than 14 times per game. Maine has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a losing record including four of their five games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road against teams with a losing record. Additionally, it will not hurt that the Black Bears rank third in the nation by converting on 81.5% of their free throws.

FINAL TAKE: Maine makes 45.5% of their shots while holding their opponents to 41.5% shooting. The Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots and limit their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with Maine Black Bears (306533) plus the points versus the Duquesne Dukes (306534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (680) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (679). THE SITUATION: UConn (5-3) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 99-45 victory against Maryland-Eastern Shore as a 40.5-point favorite last Saturday. Baylor (5-2) has won five of their last six games after their 91-60 victory against New Orleans as a 38-point favorite last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn suffered a disastrous three-game run in the Maui Invitational last week — but those losses deserve context. They lost in overtime against Memphis after some controversial officiating. The refs then played a role the next night in a one-point loss against Colorado. After those two emotional losses, they came out flat in their third game in three days against a Dayton team that ranks 32nd in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. Unquestionably, head coach Dan Hurley has some work to do with his team’s play on the defensive end of the court after all three of those teams made at least 50% of their shots — losing Donovan Clingan, Tristan Newton, and Stephon Castle from last year’s team is a challenge. But now Hurley has had a week to get to work on fixing these issues. They held Maryland-Eastern Shore to just 30% shooting which was a season-best for them defensively. Perhaps this team is due for a visit from the Regression Gods? They do rank 27th  in the nation by keeping their opponents off the 3-point line as just 32.5% of their opponent’s shots from behind the arc — but these opponents are nailing 36.3% of these shots, ranking 298th. And while the Bears rank 38.1% of their shots from 3-point range, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams who are making at least 37% of their 3-pointers. Additionally, UConn has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 43 games after beating their previous opponent by 15 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after scoring 85 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not allowing 55 or more points. Back on their home court, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 38 games including four of their five games at home this season. This is a good matchup for UConn. Baylor struggles on the defensive of the court where they rank 74th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bears’ opponents have an effective field goal percentage of 56.2%, ranking 231st. They are allowing their opponents to make 41.0% of their 3-pointers, ranking 355th. They are also letting their opponents make 52.3% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 209th — and the Huskies rank third in the nation by making 63.9% of their 2-pointers. UConn feasts on teams like this. Baylor allows their opponents to make 47.4% of their shots overall — and the Huskies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Baylor has lost to their two best opponents, Gonzaga and Tennessee. Their best win was against St. John’s — and it took two overtimes. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games away from home after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games away from home as the dog. And while the Huskies are giving up only 63.3 Points-Per-Game, Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who are not allowing more than 64 PPG. UConn should have a big edge on the glass tonight. While the Bears rank 10th in the nation by pulling down 39.5% of their missed shots, the Huskies rank 21st by holding their opponents to rebounding just 23.8% of their misses. But on the other end is where UConn should dominate. They rebound 35.9% of their missed shots — and Baylor ranks 211th by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.6% of their misses.

FINAL TAKE: The Huskies will be without Alex Karaban tonight which is not ideal — but they still have the depth edge against the Bears’ thin rotation that only goes seven or maybe eight deep. UConn has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 42 games against teams outside the Big 12. 20* CBB Baylor-UConn FS1-TV Special with the Connecticut Huskies (680) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (679). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (676) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (675) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (36-3) has won 12 games in a row after their 86-72 victory against Alabama as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.   Purdue (34-4) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 63-50 victory against North Carolina State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn nailed 10 of their 25 shots (40%) of their shots from behind the arc on Saturday en route to a 50% shooting effort overall. Connecticut made 51.7% of their shots in the Elite Eight against Illinois which was the fourth time in their last five games where they shot at least 50% from the field — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after shooting 50% or better from the field in two or more games in a row. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. UConn has won all five of their games by at least 14 points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after winning four or more games in a row by double-digits. Additionally, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when playing with one day or less of rest. UConn has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games this season against teams winning 80% or more of their games. And while the Boilermakers are outscoring their opponents by +14.1 Points-Per-Game, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in all five of their games in the Big Dance — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have all failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after winning five or more games in a row. If there is one area that particularly concerns me about the Boilermakers is their propensity to get sloppy with the basketball. After committing 16 turnovers against the Wolfpack, Purdue is turning the ball over in 17.8% of their possessions when playing on a neutral court, ranking 187th in the nation. I also think there is a big edge in coaching tonight. I think Matt Painter is fine for Purdue — but Dan Hurley is simply at the top of his game right now with the rare mix of combining work ethic with being the top tactician in the game. His teams have always been very good on the defensive end of the court — but he has been tremendous in raising the level of play when his team has the basketball with very tight schemes and formations.

FINAL TAKE: The Huskies have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court as a favorite from 6.5 to 12 points. 10* CBB Purdue-Connecticut TBS-TV Special with the Connecticut Huskies (676) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (675). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (672) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (671) in the Final Four Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (35-3) has won 11 games in a row after their 77-52 victory against Illinois as an 8-point favorite in their Elite Eight contest last Saturday. Alabama (25-11) has won four games in a row with their 89-82 victory against Clemson as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Even  with their Final Four run, Alabama only ranks 46th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in their last ten games which is far below their ranking of 14th on the season overall. For comparisons sake, North Carolina State ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in their last ten games which encompasses their run to win the ACC Tournament. The fundamental problem the Crimson Tide have tonight is their porous defense. They rank 189th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games. When playing away from home, their defense ranks 175th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and the +9.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions they give up when away from home is the eighth worst disparity in the nation. Alabama has given up 87 and 82 points in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after allowing 80 or more points in two roomer games in a row. Both those games finished Over the Total — and the Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after playing two or more games Over the Total. UConn has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. The Huskies have not allowed more than 58 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 65 points in four or more games in a row. And in their last 21 games as a double-digit favorite, UConn has covered the point spread 14 times.

FINAL TAKE: UConn has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in the Big Dance — and they have ten games in a row in the NCAA Tournament by 13 or more points. 10* CBB Alabama-Connecticut TBS-TV Special with the  Connecticut Huskies (672) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (671). Best of luck for us — Frank.         

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (674) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673) in the Final Four Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Purdue (33-4) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 72-66 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Sunday. North Carolina State (26-14) has won nine straight games after their 76-64 upset victory against Duke as a 7-point underdog in their Elite Eight game on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: NC State held the Blue Devils to just 32.2% shooting last Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. Getting Kyle Filipowski into foul trouble helped — and Duke made only five of their 20 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc. The Wolfpack’s improbable run after trailing a bad Louisville team at halftime in the opening round of the ACC Tournament has included seven upset victories. They have survived two overtime games. And they have probably been fortunate with opponent 3-point shooting woes since their last eight opponents have made only 26.2% of their shots behind the arc despite posting a 35.8% opponent shooting percentage from 3-point land after rallying to defeat the Cardinals a month ago. I expect the bubble to burst tonight — and in a big way — against this Boilermakers team. NC State’s run has been centered on the improved and inspired play of D.J. Burns whose playground post-up moves have baffled opponents. But the 275-pounder’s mojo is not going to fly when now being guarded by Zach Edey, who has seven inches and 25 pounds on him. Burns has thrived on taking advantage of opposing defenders leaning in on him to slow him down since he has the agility to spin by those guys. Edey does not need to do that — he’s just going to stand there and raise his arms. He doesn’t even draw fouls because simply staying vertical is imposing enough on potential shooters. Burns can attempt to attack the rim — and Edey’s 7.0% block rate of opposing shots he defends comes into play. The Wolfpack face an even bigger challenge trying to defend Edey — the conundrum is a huge challenge for head coach Kevin Keatts. If he uses Burns to try to defend him, he risks getting him into foul trouble since Edey is so good at drawing fouls. Opposing big men have fouled out in 29 of the 37 games Purdue has played this season. Burns is too small to stop Edey’s hook shot. And he’s slow. Keatts could deploy Mohamed Diarra who is an inch taller than Burns — but he is spotting Edey 85 pounds. Another problem would then be that Burns would be forced to defend on the perimeter (probably against the 6’6 Mason Gillis) since Purdue plays the other four players with Edey out on the perimeter where they all can make 3s. Keatts could try a zone defense to bypass these problems — but then Edey will have even more room to crash the boards for second-shot opportunities. He ranks third in the country by pulling down 18.5% of his team’s missed shots when he is on the court. And this potential zone would open up more 3-point opportunities for the Boilermakers who rank second in the nation by nailing 40.6% of their 3s. Purdue has scored 1.12 Points-Per-Possession in the rare times teams have attempted to deploy a zone defense against them. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. And teams in the NCAA Tournament coming off a win that eliminated Duke from the Big Dance have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their next 9 games. Purdue only made 45.3% of their shots against the tough Volunteers defense last week which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Boilermakers did control the boards by out-rebounding Tennessee by a 47-26 margin — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by 20 or more boards. Purdue has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 80% or more of their games. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games in the Big Dance under head coach Matt Painter when favored by nine or more points. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year on the Purdue Boilermakers (674) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana State Sycamores (681) minus the points versus the Seton Hall Pirates (682) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Indiana State (32-6) reached the finals of this tournament with their 100-90 victory against Utah as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Seton Hall (24-12) advanced from their semifinal contest in an 84-67 victory against Georgia as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SYCAMORES MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana State allowed the Utes to make 52.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 33 games. The Sycamores have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. And while they have won 10 of their last 11 games with their lone setback being against Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference title game that kept them from making the NCAA Tournament (despite 28 wins at the time), they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. Indiana State does sacrifice defense for their explosive offense most of the time — but there is one area that head coach Josh Schertz has his team focus on when playing on the defensive end of the court. The Sycamores limit their opponents to pulling down only 23.9% of their missed shots when they are playing away from home which is the 11th-best mark in the nation. Their defensive rebounding will be critical tonight since the Pirates rank 19th in the county by rebounding 35.6% of their missed shots. They held Utah to just five offensive rebounds on Tuesday — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after not allowing their opponent to pull down more than five offensive rebounds in their last game. Indiana State will win this game with their innovative offense under Schertz. They play at the 26th fastest pace in the nation by averaging only 15.9 seconds per possession. The Sycamores lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 59.9% — and they lead the nation by making 62.6% of their shots inside the arc. They fall all the way down 11th in the country with their 38.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they rank sixth in the nation by taking 49.3% of their shots from behind the arc. Led by the bespectacled Robbie Avila, they have scored at least 80 points in nine of their last eleven games. Seton Hall wants to slow this game down and engage in some bully-ball — but the spacing that the Sycamores engage in on offense takes away their opponent's ability to muck things up in the lane. The Pirates only have a 47.5% effective field goal percentage when on the road which ranks 264th in the nation. If they cannot get second chance opportunities, they will struggle to score points. As it is, they rank only 112th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. They do not force turnovers to increase their potential scoring opportunities either — they rank 130th in the nation by forcing turnovers in only 17.7% of their opponent’s possessions. Seton Hall has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing for the second time in seven days.  

FINAL TAKE: The Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games in tournament action — and the Sycamores have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when favored. While I think the “home court” edge for Indiana State is overplayed a bit since they are playing on a neutral court that both teams just played on, it certainly does not hurt our cause that the crowd will be mostly cheering on the home state Sycamores. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year with the Indiana State Sycamores (681) minus the points versus the Seton Hall Pirates (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (664) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (663) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (23-12) has won five of their last six games after their 91-68 victory against UNLV as a 6-point favorite last Wednesday. Georgia (20-16) has won four of their last five games after their 79-77 upset victory at Ohio State as a 9-point underdog last Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES MINUS THE POINTS: Seton Hall comes into this game with momentum after beating their last two opponents in the NIT by 38 combined points. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. They were one of the three teams this season to beat UConn — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. They should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities against this Bulldogs team that struggles to protect their defensive glass. Seton Hall pulls down 35.6% of their missed shots, ranking 19th in the nation. Georgia allows their opponents to rebound 30.4% of their missed shots, ranking 238th in the country. The Bulldogs have pulled off two straight upset victories in this tournament to reach the semifinals. The Bulldogs shot 47.8% from the field against the Buckeyes which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing a game on the road where both teams scored 75 or more points. They ranked just tenth in the SEC and currently rank 105th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. In their five games played on a neutral court, the Bulldogs are scoring -12.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Another problem they are likely to experience tonight is they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. They only pull down 27.3% of their missed shots, ranking 238th in the nation. They also only force turnovers in 16.2% of their opponent's possessions, ranking 240th.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. 8* CBB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with Seton Hall Pirates (664) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (663). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (658) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (657) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (27-8) has won six of their last eight games after their 54-51 upset win against Houston as a 4-point underdog on Friday. North Carolina State (25-14) has won eight games in a row after their 67-58 upset win against Marquette as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke advanced despite making only 40.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 21 games. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Head coach Job Scheyer has his team playing their best defense of the entire season right now. They have not allowed an opponent to generate an effective field goal percentage higher than 43.3%. Their three opponents in the Big Dance have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency no higher than 85.2 — and Duke only had two better defensive games than that in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency before this tournament started. The Wolfpack make 45.1% of their shots — but the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots. Duke has covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for the second time in three days. On the road, the Blue Devils are scoring +2.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. Duke has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games in March. And while NC State is outscoring their opponents by +4.1 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. NC State played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Golden Eagles to just 33.3% shooting. Marquette scored at just an 0.84 Points-Per-Possession rate despite ranking 21st in the nation by scoring at an adjusted 1.18 PPP rate. Some of that was just bad shooting luck for the Golden Eagles who could not hit the side of a barn from outside as they only made 4 of 31 shots from behind the arc despite getting tons of open looks. The Wolfpack’s opponents in the Big Dance are making only 23 of their 97 shots from behind the arc. ACC opponents made 36.2% of their 3s against NC State — so I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods regarding the 23.7% shooting percentage of the Wolfpack’s opponents in this tournament. Of concern for NC State is that they only scored at a 0.97 PPG rate on Friday — and they missed six of their 12 free throws. The Wolfpack has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not making more than 53% of their free throws in their last game. They held Marquette to only 24 points in the first half — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time in three days. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games (with six upset victories in that run), NC State has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games.                                                                                   

FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (658) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (657). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (656) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (655) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Purdue (32-4) has won nine of their last ten games after their 80-68 victory against Gonzaga as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Tennessee (27-8) has won ten of their last 12 games with their 82-75 victory against Creighton as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Purdue made 57.1% of their shots including 45% of their 3-pointers to overwhelm the Bulldogs on Friday. Gonzaga did make 49.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in the Boilermakers' last 14 contests. Purdue is making 53.6% of their shots in this Big Dance including 43.3% of their shots from behind the arc. They also own a +55 net rebounding edge in their three games in this tournament. The Boilermakers scored 106 points in their previous game against Utah State — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. Purdue has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams outside the Big Ten. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And while the Volunteers are outscoring their opponents by +11.8 Points-Per-Game, the Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or PPG. Tennessee has filed top over the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after winning three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing for the second time in the last three days. I worry about this team given the massive funk that Santiago Vescovi is mired in right now. After scoring 12.9 Points-Per-Game and making 39% of his 3-pointers in the previous two seasons, he limped into this tournament with a 3.3 PPG scoring average in his last seven games while making only 23% of their shots including just 4 of 22 (18.1%) of his shots from behind the arc. In his first two NCAA Tournament games, Vescovi has only scored eight combined points with a 33.3% shooting percentage with only two made 3s in his seven attempts. Vescovi was the only player not to play on Friday against the Bluejays — he claims it was because of the flu, but it is suspicious that he could not take the floor at all in this single-elimination tournament. His confidence could be shot. The Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of his last 21 coached games in the NCAA Tournament going back to 2010 during his time with Texas and now the Volunteers. Even worse, when his team was not a double-digit favorite in those games in the Big Dance, his teams failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those 16 contests. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Purdue Boilermakers (656) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (655). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (654) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (653) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Alabama (24-11) has won three games in a row after their 89-87 upset victory as a 4.5-point underdog on Thursday. Clemson (24-11) has pulled off their second-straight upset victory in the Big Dance with their 77-72 upset win against Arizona as a 7-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: Alabama should build off their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. They trailed at halftime by a 54-46 score before holding the Tar Heels to only seven points in the first ten minutes of the second half. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 45 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing with one day of rest. Alabama makes 36.8% of their 3-point shots — and the Tigers are vulnerable to 3-point shooting teams since their opponents take 40.6% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing on the road, ranking 286th in the nation. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 9 of their 12 games this season when the Total is set at 160 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. Clemson made 49.2% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. The Tigers are due a visit from the Regression Gods after their three opponents in the Big Dance have missed 58 of their 75 shots from behind the arc. Clemson has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing their second game on the road in the last three days. On the road, the Tigers are scoring -2.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions.

FINAL TAKE: Clemson makes 46.8% of their shots while holding their opponents to just 41.2% shooting — but the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who make at least 46.8% of their shots and hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. 10* CBB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Alabama Crimson Tide (654) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (645) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (646) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (26-8) has won five of their last seven games after their 93-55 victory against James Madison as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (32-4) has won 13 of their last 14 games after their 100-95 victory in overtime against Texas A&M as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: Duke nailed 14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc against the Dukes — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making 50% or more of the 3-pointers in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their previous game. The Blue Devils opened their Big Dance with a 64-47 win against Vermont as a 12.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as the favorites. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They have scored at least 86 points in both their games in the Big Dance — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Houston is an elite defensive team — but getting to play them away from the Fertitta Center helps a lot. The Cougars give up +13.1 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games played on a neutral court this season. 8* CBB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Duke Blue Devils (645) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (639) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (640) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Gonzaga (27-7) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 89-68 victory against Kansas as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (31-4) has won eight of their last nine games after their 106-67 win against Utah State as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Purdue exorcised some of their demons last week after Fairleigh Dickinson knocked them off in the Round of 64 last year despite being a one seed. The Boilermakers had an easy time of it in a 78-50 victory against Grambling State before their 39-point win against the Aggies over the weekend. But this remains a program that has not advanced beyond the Sweet 16 since 2019 — so nerves may play a role for this team that has been National Championship or bust ambitions all season. Purdue made 55.9% of their shots against Utah State which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. They also held the Aggies to 35.9% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 15 contests. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. Additionally, they have beaten six teams this season by 30 or more points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of those 5 next contests going into tonight’s showdown. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning two games in a row by 15 or more points. Since getting outrebounded by Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament, Purdue has outrebounded their next three opponents by at least 14 boards. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after outrebounding two straight opponents by ten or more boards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after outrebounding three straight opponents by ten or more rebounds. Away from home, Purdue scores -7.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions which ranks 337th in the nation in the worst drop-off from the home offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs hold their opponents to 40.2% shooting — and the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or lower. And while Gonzaga outscores their opponents by +16.2 Points-Per-Game, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after 15 games into the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. There is a national perception that this is a down year for head coach Mark Few’s Bulldogs — but this is a better team since Few inserted Ben Gregg into the starting lineup in mid-January. The 6’10 big man makes 38.6% of his 3-pointers — his ability to play on the perimeter opens up space for superstar point guard Ryan Nembhard and Graham Ike to operate their pick-and-rolls with plenty of room. Gonzaga ranks ninth in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in their last ten games led by a nearly unstoppable offense that ranks third in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency during that span. They lead the nation in their last ten games with an effective field goal percentage of 61.5% -- leading the nation with a 44.2% clip from behind the arc and ranking fourth with a 59.6% mark from inside the arc. The Bulldogs will slow down the Boilermakers' rebounding edge — they outrebound their opponents by +7.4 Rebounds-Per-Game while ranking 52nd in the nation by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots. On the road, Gonzaga ranks 29th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they allow -2.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. The Boilermakers make 49.0% of their shots — but the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after 15 games into the season against teams who make 48% or more of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of Purdue’s 73-63 victory against the Bulldogs in the Maui Invitational on November 20th. A few things from that game. First, Few had yet to insert Gregg into the starting lineup which unleashed the offensive attack. Second, Gonzaga neutralized the Boilermakers’ rebounding edge with both teams pulling down 38 boards. Third, Purdue’s Zach Edey was not called for a foul while Ike was in foul trouble all game with four personal fouls — that is not likely to happen again. Few has had a long time to consider how to adjust to the Boilermakers’ motion offense — and the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 road games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Underdog of the Year with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (639) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (636) minus points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (635) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (29-7) has won two straight games and ten of their last 11 contests after their 85-69 victory against Michigan State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Alabama (23-11) has won three of their last four games after their 72-61 victory against Grand Canyon as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Crytpo.com Arena in Los Angeles, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: North Carolina should feed off their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit victory. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. They defeated Wagner by a 90-62 score in their opening game in the NCAA Tournament — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning two games in a row by double-digits. Head coach Hubert Davis has this team playing outstanding defense — they rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, the Tar Heels have been even better by allowing -1.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions — they rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Alabama held the Antelopes to just 32.1% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 19 contests. But the Crime Tide still allows +9.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home — and that is the 354th worst discrepancy versus their home defensive metrics. Alabama benefited from playing two mid-major teams in Grand Canyon and Charleston in their first two games in the Big Dance. They lost four of their final six games in the SEC — and one of those victories required overtime against a mediocre Arkansas team. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 170 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 17 of their 28 games this season against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the North Carolina Tar Heels (636) minus points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (635). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:39 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (633) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (33-3) has won nine games in a row after their 75-58 victory against Northwestern as a 13.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Diego State (26-10) has won two in a row and four of their last five after their 85-57 victory against Yale as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: I don’t always love laying double-digits but am willing to do it in this instance in this rematch of last year’s National Championship Game. UConn won that game by a 76-59 score — and while they may be even better this season, the Aztecs are not quite as good as that group was last year. While San Diego State ranked eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road last season, they fall to 22nd in that metric when playing away from home this season. The Aztecs give up +4.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road versus at home this season — and that is the 308th worst discrepancy in the nation. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. The Aztecs' offense is too one-dimensional as they rely too much on big man Jaedon LeDee (who was coming off the bench last year). Huskies head coach has a three-headed monster to slow down LeDee in starters Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban along with Samson Johnson coming off the bench. San Diego State did make 52.7% of their shots against Yale on Sunday but that was the best shooting effort in their last ten contests. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after winning two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when playing for the third time in seven days. UConn’s three losses this season have either come from an ice-cold shooting performance or running into a team on fire from behind the arc. But San Diego State only makes 31.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 283rd in the nation. The Huskies have won three straight games by 16 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning three or more games in a row by 15 or more points. They rank eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after not allowing more than 58 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, UConn has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as a double-digit favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: While San Diego State has revenge on their minds, don’t underestimate the motivation the Huskies have in this game as a measuring stick regarding how this year’s group compares to last year’s squad. UConn has covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record after 15 games into the season. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Redhawks (618) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (617) in the Semifinals of the College Basketball Invitational. THE SITUATION: Seattle (21-14) has won two games in a row after their 71-57 victory against Evansville as a 9-point favorite yesterday in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. Fairfield (24-12) has won two in a row and six of their last seven after their 77-74 victory against Chicago State as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle is a solid team out of the Western Athletic Conference who beat Grand Canyon while losing a second game on the road against them in overtime. They also beat Louisiana Tech and lost in double overtime to Washington. Head coach Chris Victor has his team play very good defense — they rank 64th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency off the strength of their half-court defense. They rank 18th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 46.8%. The Stags live and die by the 3-point shot — but the Redhawks rank seventh in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 29.7% shooting from behind the arc. Seattle should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. On the road, they are scoring +7.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games this season against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And while Fairfield outscores their opponents by +5.1 Points-Per-Game, Seattle has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who outscore their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. The Stags nailed 57.7% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last 22 games. But Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have only covered the point spread once in their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. And while they have won nine of their last 11 games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games. The Stags are a good offensive team — but they struggle to stop their opponents on the other end of the court. Fairfield ranks 243rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The problems are with their interior defense. They allow their opponent to make 53.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 303rd in the nation. They also allow their opponents to pull down 30.8% of their missed shots, ranking 268th in the nation. Seattle limits their opponents to 41.4% shooting — and the Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or less. Fairfield had a 10-4 record when playing at home — but they rank 272nd in the nation with their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games including all five of those circumstances this season.

FINAL TAKE: Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games played on a neutral court this season — and the Redhawks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court when favored or a pick ‘em. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games in a tournament setting. 25* CBB College Basketball Invitational Game of the Year with the playing the Seattle Redhawks (618) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (617). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (848) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (847) in the second round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah (20-14) won for the second time in their last three games after their 84-75 victory against UC-Irvine as an 8-point home favorite on Tuesday. Iowa (19-14) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 91-82 victory at home against Kansas State as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah ranks top-50 in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have beaten six teams that made the NCAA Tournament: Saint Mary’s, BYU, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State. They are particularly tough to beat at home where they enjoy an altitude edge in Provo — especially against teams from the east like Iowa. The Utes have a 15-2 record at home with an average winning margin of +16.5 Points-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to 38.7% shooting including a 31.5% mark from behind the arc that results in 67.9 PPG on their home court. They make 49.4% of their shots including 38.9% of their 3-pointers resulting in 84.4 PPG. They rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home — and they enjoy the 24th biggest jump in that metric when compared to playing away from home. Utah has covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Iowa made 48.3% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They scored 78 points in their 12-point loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Hawkeyes rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they struggle on the other end of the court. They rank 151st in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to 188th in that metric when playing in hostile environments. Interior defense is a significant problem as they allow their home hosts to make 57.9% of their shots inside the arc. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games when playing for the second time in seven days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. And in their last 13 games with the Total set in at 160 or higher, they have failed to cover the point spread 9 times.

FINAL TAKE: Utah outscores their opponents by +5.5 PPG — and Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games against teams who outscore their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. The Hawkeyes have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB 2nd Round NIT Game of the Year with the Utah Utes (848) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (847). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Grand Canyon Antelopes (839) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (840) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Grand Canyon (30-4) has won six games in a row after their 75-66 upset victory as a point underdog in their opening game in the NCAA Tournament on Friday. Alabama (22-11) has won two of their last three games after their 109-96 victory against Charleston as an 8.5-point favorite in their first game in the Big Dance on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Spokane Veterans Arena in Spokane, Washington.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ANTELOPES PLUS THE POINTS: Any concern that this Grand Canyon team was a paper tiger that benefited from an easy schedule out of the Western Athletic Conference got dismissed them dominating one of the best Saint Mary’s teams their legendary head coach Randy Bennett has had there in his tenure. The Antelopes are playing with house money now — and they should feed off their momentum tonight. Grand Canyon has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while they have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Head coach Bryce Drew has a veteran team full of transfers who play in a style that makes them very dangerous against this Crimson Tide squad — and all these skills travel on the road. The Antelopes lead the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.1% when playing away from home. They will challenge Alabama which loves to shoot 3s as they rank 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to 30.4% shooting when playing on the road. They also rank fifth in the nation with an opponent’s shooting percentage of 44.8% inside the arc. Grand Canyon does some things to generate more scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They rank 81st by pulling down 31.5% of their missed shots when on the road — and the Tide are vulnerable in this department as their opponents to pull down 32.3% of their missed shots in their seven games played on a neutral court, ranking 236th in the nation (and they rank 236th in defensive rebounding overall). Furthermore, the Antelopes lead the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.1% of their opponent’s possessions when playing away from home, ranking 21st in the nation. And the Antelopes' attacking style has them lead the nation in getting to the free throw line when playing on the road — and Alabama is a fouling machine that ranks 342nd in defensive foul rate. The Crimson Tide outscore their opponents by +9.8 Points-Per-Game — and Grand Canyon has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games on the road against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court. Alabama is adored by the laptops — but their season stats include plenty of the empty calories that come from the luxury of the carefree launching of more and more 3s when bullying lesser opponents. The Crimson Tide made 60% of their shots against the Cougars on Friday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after making 60% or more of their shots. The problem with Alabama is that do not play defense - they rank 178th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road. They give up +10.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home which is the 355th worst discrepancy from their home defensive efficiency. Alabama has given up 80 or more points in eight straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after allowing 80 or more points in three or more games in a row. The Tide live by the three — but they die by relying too much on the 3 as well. They rank 19th in the nation by taking 49.1% of their shots from the field from behind the arc when playing on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: The Antelopes have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and the Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. 10* CBB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Grand Canyon Antelopes (839) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (830) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (829) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Marquette (26-9) has won four of their last five games after their 87-69 victory against Western Kentucky as a 14.5-point favorite in their opening-round game in the NCAA Tournament on Friday. Colorado (26-10) has won two straight games as well as ten of their last 11 contests with their 102-100 victory against Florida as a 1-point favorite in their first game in the Big Dance on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Colorado made 63.0% of their shots on Friday — but still needed K.J. Simpson to nail a last-second game-winner to eke out their game with the Gators in a final score that looked more like a Miami Heat contest than a college basketball game. That was the best shooting performance in the Buffaloes’ last 30 contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after scoring 95 or more points in their last game. And while Colorado made 6 of their 10 shots from behind the arc in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a game where they made at least 50% of their 3-pointers. The Buffaloes have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by six points or less. Colorado struggled with the Florida press late in the game on Friday — they rank 254th in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.1% of their possessions. Here comes the Golden Eagles who rank 20th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Marquette got Tyler Kolek back on Friday who was able to play 38 minutes while enjoying a strong second half en route to 18 points and 11 assists. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time on the road in three days.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 14 games this season against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and Marquette has covered the point spread in 8 of their 10 games after 15 games into this season against teams winning 60-80% of their games. The Golden Eagles have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s — and the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Marquette Golden Eagles (830) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (829). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (793) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (794) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oregon (24-11) has won five games in a row after their 87-73 victory against South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Creighton (24-9) has won four of their last five games after their 77-60 victory against Akron as a 12-point favorite in their first-round game on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Creighton played their best defensive game in their last 12 contests by holding the Zips to just 37.9% shooting. They also made 56.5% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. But head coach Greg McDermott’s team is vulnerable because they tend to live by the three but die by the three. They take 48.6% of their shots from behind the arc which is the eighth most aggressive tactic in the nation. They rank 352nd in the percentage of points they generate from inside the arc or the free throw line. If Creighton’s 3-point shots are not falling, they don’t have a Plan B (outside of great defense). They do not crash the glass since they only pull down 25.8% of their missed shots, ranking 284th in the nation. They rank 351st in getting to the free-throw line for some easy points. They do not force turnovers as their opponents cough the ball up just 11.1%  of the time, ranking 361st. And they play at a slow pace by averaging 67.0 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 208th, so their style of play does not help the Regression Gods appear if they are not hitting their 35.6% clip from behind the arc. Creighton was hot on Thursday as they nailed 10 of their 17 shots from 3-point range for a 58.8% clip. But the Bluejays have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after making 55% or more of their shots including five of those seven occasions this season. When playing on their home court, Creighton makes 38.5% of their 3s — but when away from home, that clip drops to 34.6% which is only the 109th-best percentage in the nation. They score -10.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home — and that is the 13th worst decline in the country. Additionally, the Bluejays have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Creighton has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Oregon is playing their best basketball of the season now that head coach Dana Altman has found the most successful style and identity for this team. Injuries have plagued the Ducks all season with four players suffering season-ending injuries. But after only playing one time before January 13th, their 6’11 big man N’Faly Dante is demonstrating his vast NBA potential. In his last five games, Dante is scoring 20.6 Points-Per-Game while pulling down 8.8 Rebounds-Per-Game and adding 2.8 Steals-Per-Game and 1.6 Blocks-Per-Game. He is likely the best player on the court tonight. And while Creighton averages 11 made 3s per game, the Ducks have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games this season against teams who make 8 or more 3s per game. Furthermore, the Ducks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This matchup means a lot to Altman who was the head coach at Creighton for 16 years before taking the Oregon job in 2010. In Altman, we trust — he has a 16-6-1 ATS mark in the 23 games he has coached in the NCAA Tournament. 5* CBB Round of 32 Underdog of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (793) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:55 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (771) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (772) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: TCU (21-12) has lost four of their last six games after their 60-45 loss to Houston as an 11.5-point underdog last Thursday in the Quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. Utah State (27-6) had their six-game winning streak snapped in an 86-70 loss to San Diego State as a 5-point underdog last Friday in the Semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU shot a season-low 23.3% from the field in their loss to the Cougars who might be the best defensive team in the country. But head coach Jamie Dixon should have his team ready to play tonight. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 60 points in their last game. And while they missed 18 of their 20 shots from behind the arc in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after failing to make at least 20% of their 3-pointers — including all four of those occasions this season. TCU has been resilient under Dixon’s guidance — they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss including eight of their previous 11 losses this season. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival including six of those nine occasions this season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. Dixon has his team engage in a style of play that leads to success in single-elimination games because he emphasizes seizing extra possessions. The Horned Frogs rank 20th in the nation by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots. They also rank 22nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions. They are also an above-average 3-point shooting team that makes 35.0% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home. TCU scores +1.5 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road as opposed to being at home. And while the fact that they give up +3.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road is concerning, when looking at just their six games played on a neutral court, they allow -0.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions versus home and true road games — and those six contests include four games against NCAA Tournament teams. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games on the road after a double-digit loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning 15 or more of their last 20 contests. I worry about this Aggies team in tournament settings because they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. Under first-year head coach Danny Sprinkle, this team plays like his previous Montana State teams. They get to the free throw line — and they are an outstanding shooting team inside the arc where they rank tenth in the nation by making 57.1% of their shots. But they only make 32.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 270th in the nation. They do not create many second chances for themselves on the offensive glass as they pull down only 28.5% of their missed shots, ranking 192nd in the nation. And they force turnovers in only 16.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 223rd in the nation. On the road, they are scoring -2.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions — so the old-school Bobby Knight style of play on offense does not travel well for them. And they do not play the same quality of defense as those Knight teams from the 1970s and 80s. Utah State ranks 67th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 303rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 53.1% of their shots inside the arc. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games in the postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 appearances in the NCAA Tournament. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 60-80% of their games including five of their eight games this season under Sprinkle. TCU has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against teams winning 80% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against those teams when playing them 15 games into the season. This Horned Frogs team has high-profile wins against Houston and Baylor. Lastly, TCU ranks 296th in the nation in Ken Pomeroy’s Luck Factor rankings based on his analytics while the Aggies rank 14th in that metric — so perhaps this is a game that the Regression Gods have circled. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Game of the Year with the TCU Horned Frogs (771) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the James Madison Dukes (761) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (762) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: James Madison (761) rides a 13-game winning streak after their 91-71 victory against Arkansas State as a 5.5-point favorite back on March 11th in the Championship Game of the Sun Belt Conference. Wisconsin (22-13) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 93-87 loss to Illinois as a 4-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUKES PLUS THE POINTS: James Madison beat Michigan State in the Breslin Center to begin their season — and they are going to be a tough out for any team trying to snap their 13-game winning streak. The Dukes are a dangerous underdog because they do things to force additional possessions if their shots are not falling. They rank 40th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 19.8% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank 79th in the nation by pulling down 32.0% of their missed shots. They make 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 38th in the nation. They only take 38% of their shots from 3-point land — but they may get more aggressive as an underdog against a Big Ten power in this contest. The Badgers are certainly vulnerable in this regard since they rank 345th in the nation by allowing their opponents to nail 37.4% of their 3-pointers. James Madison nailed a season-high 62.5% of their shots against the Red Wolves while holding them to just 35.6% shooting. I tend to expect an appearance from the Regression Gods after seeing outlier numbers like that but the Dukes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after nailing 60% or more of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where they made at least 57% of their shots and held their opponent to no better than 43% shooting. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral court. Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. The Badgers are a vulnerable favorite since they play at such a slow pace — they rank 358th in the nation by averaging 19.1 seconds per possession. On the road, Wisconsin scores -4.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions — and they rank 207th in the nation in terms of their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: The Dukes have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the James Madison Dukes (761) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (762). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (734) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (733) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (23-10) had their four-game winning streak snapped in an 82-59 loss to Houston as a 10.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the Big 12 Tournament on Friday. North Carolina State (22-14) has won five games in a row after their 84-76 upset victory as a 10-point underdog against North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS: Texas Tech only made 33.3% of their shots against the Cougars last week which was the worst shooting effort of their season. They also allowed Houston to make 49.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four contest. The Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 15 or more points. Texas Tech should shoot the ball better tonight. They rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road fueled by their making 38.8% of their shots behind the arc which is fourth fourth-best shooting mark on the road. An encouraging part of the Red Raiders late in the season has been their ability to get to the free throw like. Despite averaging 20 free throw attempts per game, they have gotten to the charity stripe 24, 24, and 25 times in their last three games. Texas Tech has taken 14 and 10 more shots from the line in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after taking ten or more free throw attempts than their opponent in two straight games. And while the Red Raiders have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. North Carolina State made 54.9% of their shots in their upset win against North Carolina to win the ACC Tournament — and that was the best shooting effort in their last 28 games. They also held the Tar Heels to 37.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 15 games. After pulling off four straight upset victories last week in the ACC Tournament necessary for them to make the Big Dance, expect a visit from the Regression Gods now that they have had time to exhale. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Defense is an area of concern for the Wolfpack as they rank 98th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. They are especially vulnerable to good 3-point shooting teams like the Red Raiders as they rank 270th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.2% of their shots behind the arc when playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack have not covered the point spread in their last 3 games in the first round of a tournament (including last week as a favorite against Louisville in the ACC Tournament) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral court as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (734) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (733). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (738) plus the point(s) versus the Oregon Ducks (737) in Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: South Carolina (26-7) was on a two-game winning streak before their 86-55 loss to Auburn as a 7.5-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament last Friday. Oregon (23-11) rides a four-game winning streak after their 75-68 upset victory against Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog to win the Pac-12 Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: South Carolina is on upset alert perhaps overseeded by the tournament committee as a six-seed — but I don’t care about seeds, I care about point spreads. With the Gamecocks now getting points in many locations, the value rests with this otherwise solid team that has something to prove after getting crushed by 31 points in their last game. They made only 28.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort of their season. But South Carolina has bounced back to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a straight-up loss to an SEC rival. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when playing for just the second time in seven days. And while their game with the Tigers finished Under the 144.5-point total, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Gamecocks were without Myles Stute against an Auburn but the wing’s hip injury has improved enough for him to take the court. South Carolina ranks 38th in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. They defeated Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Tennessee all in true road games. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games as an underdog. Oregon needed two straight upset victories to win the Pac-12 title after rallying from a double-digit deficit to Arizona in the semifinals before their upset win against the Buffaloes last Saturday. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win against a Pac-12 opponent. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Additionally, Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or more games in a row. The Ducks rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home — but they only rank 88th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Oregon does not play effective defense in the half-court. They rank 213th and 260th in the nation when playing on the road by allowing their opponents to make 52.2% of their shots inside the arc and 36.0% of their 3-pointers. UCLA, Arizona, and Colorado combined to make only 17 of their 62 shots from behind the arc last week —  that 27.4% mark from 3-point range may speak more about those team’s ineffective shooting than it does about a sudden surge in the Ducks’ perimeter defense. Those three conference rivals did still convert 43 of their 83 shots inside the arc — and that 51.8% shooting percentage is right in the range of Oregon’s suspect interior defense for the season. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court as a favorite of up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. South Carolina has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Don't Need te Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the South Carolina Gamecocks (738) plus the point(s) versus the Oregon Ducks (737). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (704) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (703) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Boise State (22-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 76-66 loss to New Mexico in a pick ‘em match last Thursday in the Quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Colorado (24-10) was on an eight-game winning streak before their 75-68 upset loss to Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite in the finals of the Pac-12 Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado is a bit challenging to figure out as they played their best basketball of the season down the stretch. The Buffaloes did deal with some injuries this season with freshman phenom Cody Williams missing 13 games being the most impactful. He is back on the court again, although he may not be 100%. I appreciate the narrative that this team underperformed high preseason expectations — but they are playing at that level now that they are close to 100% again. But problems remain. For starters, Colorado played much better at home in Boulder where they usually have an advantage over their visitors given the high altitude. With a 16-1 record at home, they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when evaluating home court edges. Of note is their 42.7% shooting percentage from behind the arc which ranks fifth best in the nation for home teams. But when away from Boulder, the Buffaloes drop to 47th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and their statistical drop represents the 292nd biggest split in the nation. They allow +5.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions, ranking 321st in the country in the biggest rise in opponent scoring. Colorado is simply not a great defensive team away from home as they rank 91st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. On offense, the Buffaloes score -4.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road, ranking 284th in the nation with that drop in offensive efficiency. They make 35.8% of their 3-pointers on the road which still ranks 59th in the country — but that -6.9% drop represents the 325th worst loss of shooting effectiveness. They also turn the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions away from home, ranking 297th in the nation. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em. And while their game with the Ducks finished Over the 140-point Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Buffaloes have not been reliably resilient under head coach Tad Boyle after setbacks either. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games — so a letdown may be looming for this team. Boise State has been stewing to get back on the court after making only 29.4% of their shots against the Lobos in what was the worst shooting effort of their season. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing for the second time in eight days. They have converted at least 10 shots from behind the arc in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after making at least 10 shots from distance in two or more games in a row. Boise State ranks 49th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home led by its defense that ranks 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 15th in the nation by holding their opponents to 30.0% 3-point shooting away from home. Overall, the Broncos rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank fifth in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 23.1% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State’s Leon Rice is one of the most underrated in the business — and he has led the Broncos to now three straight NCAA Tournaments. This is Colorado’s first trip to the Big Dance in three years. The public loves the Buffaloes tonight — and the fact that Mountain West Conference teams are 23-46-2 ATS in the Big Dance since 2006 (not sure if that counts Colorado State’s victory last night) is probably playing a role in that sentiment. Besides Colorado’s tournament inexperience, their best victory this season was likely against a Washington State team that ranks 42nd in the nation at KenPom despite playing in the Pac-12. Boise State played a top-30 schedule in the nation — and they have seven victories that all rate better than that using KenPom’s metrics: Saint Mary’s (#18th); San Diego State twice (#20th); New Mexico twice (#22nd); Colorado State (#30); Nevada (#34th). With the Buffaloes now laying -3 to even -3.5s, the strong value is with the battle-tested underdog. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (704) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (703). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (671) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (672) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Colorado State (24-10) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 74-61 loss to New Mexico as a 2.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Saturday. Virginia (23-10) had won two games in a row before their 73-65 upset loss in overtime to North Carolina State as a 2.5-point favorite in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado State only managed to make 34.3% of their shots in their loss to the Lobos which was the worst shooting effort for them all season. But the Rams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing three of their last four games. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Colorado State is a good defensive team that ranked 38th in the nation and third in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to 42.9% shooting away from home resulting in 69.7 PPG — and they give up -1.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. The Rams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. Virginal has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. And while they have played three straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. On the road, the Cavaliers only make 40.5% of their shots resulting in 60.4 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -2.9 % and -3.2 PPG below their season averages. Their lack of secondary scoring threats will present a problem for them tonight. They rank 225th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring -4.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. But the bigger issue is the play of their defense. While they rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they surrender +13.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games in the postseason.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of up to six points. 8* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Colorado State Rams (671) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (673) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (674) in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (18-14) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 77-71 loss to FAU as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday. LSU (17-15) has lost two of their last three games after their 70-60 loss to Mississippi State as a 5-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: North Texas only made 40.7% of their shots in the quarterfinals of the American Athletic Conference tournament last week. The Mean Green have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. North Texas should be highly motivated tonight — not only are they the defending NIT champions from last season but they can make a statement by defeating a power five conference opponent in their building. The Mean Green’s defense travels — they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. They also rank 37th in the nation by pulling down 33.9% of their missed shots. They should expose a Tigers defense that ranks 290th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 31.3% of their missed shots. North Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 130s. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. LSU only made 38.0% of their shots in their loss to the Bulldogs last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 60 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games after a straight-up loss. The Tigers get to host this game in Baton Rouge — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 130s. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games when the favorite or listed as a pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on a neutral court in Charleston with LSU winning by a 66-62 score as a 2-point favorite on November 17th. The Mean Green have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the North Texas Mean Green (673) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (650) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (649) in the Championship Game of the Big Ten Tournament. THE SITUATION: Illinois (25-8) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 98-87 victory against Nebraska as a 4.5-point favorite in their semifinal showdown yesterday. Wisconsin (76-75) has won three games in a row after their 76-75 upset victory in overtime against Purdue as a 5.5-point underdog in their semifinal game yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING ILLINI MINUS THE POINTS: Illinois was locked in with their 3-point shooting yesterday as they nailed 13 of their 35 shots en route to their victory. They should build off that momentum this afternoon. The Fighting Illini have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after making at least 13 shots from behind the arc in their last game. They lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 95 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three or more games in a row. And they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 40 games after a win by double-digits. The Illini did allow the Cornhuskers to make 46% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 85 or more points in their last contest. The Fighting Illini rank fifth in the nation's Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin may be due for a physical and emotional after outlasting the Boilermakers in overtime yesterday. This is a tough matchup for the Badgers against this Illinois team that plays fast and scores tons of points. The Fighting Illini score 83.7 Points-Per-Game while launching 24 shots from behind the arc per game. Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who score 77 or more PPG. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who take at least 21 shots from 3-point land per game. The Badgers struggle with their perimeter defense — they rank 347th in the nation by allowing their opponents to convert on a whopping 37.2% of their 3-point shots. Wisconsin’s opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.0% ranks 262nd in the nation. Inexplicably, Purdue only attempted 16 shots from behind the arc yesterday with their head coach Matt Painter seemingly lost control of the script and still freaked out regarding how to have his team play in one-and-down contests after they got upset as a number one seed last year in the Big Dance. Illinois head coach Brad Underwood will not make that mistake today. The Badgers score -5.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road — and they rank 209th in the nation in the drop off in their Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Illinois has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in that +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Illinois Fighting Illini (650) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (649). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UT-Arlington Mavericks (639) plus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (640) in the Championship Game of the Western Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UT-Arlington (20-13) has won eight games in a row after their 87-84 victory against Tarleton State as a 1-point favorite in their semifinal contest in this tournament yesterday. Grand Canyon (28-4) has won four games in a row after their 80-72 victory against Seattle as a 6-point favorite in their semifinal game on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: UT-Arlington outlasted Tarleton State yesterday despite allowing them to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win against a WAC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread victory. UT-Arlington has several routes to pull the upset tonight. They rank fourth in the WAC by pulling down 31.3% of their missed shots — and the Antelopes struggle in this department as they rank eighth in the conference by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.6% of their missed shots. They also force turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking third in the conference. Grand Canyon turns the ball over in 18.0% of their possessions. The Mavericks lead the WAC by making 36.6% of their shots from behind the arc — and they also lead the conference by launching 41.4% of their shots from 3-point range. These attributes have helped UT-Arlington cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court. Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with one day or less of rest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning four or more games in a row. All four of the Antelopes' losses were on the road where they score -5.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions.

FINAL TAKE: Grand Canyon swept both regular-season meetings with the Mavericks after their 67-61 win on the road as a 6-point road favorite back on January 27th. UT-Arlington has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when playing with double-revenge. 8* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the UT-Arlington Mavericks (639) plus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (634) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (633) in the Championship Game of the ACC Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (27-6) has won eight games in a row after their 72-65 victory against Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday. North Carolina State (21-14) has won four games in a row after their 72-65 upset victory against Virginia as a 2.5-point underdog yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: North Carolina outlasted Pittsburgh despite only making 43.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning five or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. North Carolina has a 13-5 record on the road with an average winning margin of +7.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home — and they rank seventh in the country overall in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. North Carolina State has pulled off three straight upset victories against Syracuse, Duke, and Virginia to reach this championship game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after winning two or more games in a row. They rank just 64th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road with the perimeter defense being a significant vulnerability. The Wolfpack allow their opponents to make 37.0% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home, ranking 333rd in the nation. North Carolina ranks 36th in the nation by nailing 36.4% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home.       

FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack lost both contests against the Tar Heels in the regular season after a 79-79 loss in Chapel Hill as an 11-point underdog on March 2nd. North Carolina State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 opportunities for some same-season revenge. 8* CBB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the North Carolina Tar Heels (634) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (858) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (857) in the Semifinals of the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Washington State (24-8) has won three of their last four games after their 79-62 victory against Stanford as an 8-point favorite in their Quarterfinals contest in this tournament last night. Colorado (23-9) has won seven games in a row after their 72-58 victory against Utah as a 4.5-point favorite in their Quarterfinals game last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington State should build off their momentum from yesterday as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a straight-up victory. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. Colorado has won eight of their last ten games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning eight or more of their last nine games. The Buffaloes have covered the point spread in three straight games, but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games on the road after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Furthermore, Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado wants to avenge a 78-69 loss at Washington State as a 2-point underdog on January 27th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 opportunities for revenge this season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 8* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Washington State Cougars (858) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (857). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (830) minus the points versus the Wichita State Shockers (829) in the Quarterfinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UAB (20-11) has won two straight games after their 74-70 victory against SMU as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Wichita State (15-18) won for the fourth time in their last five games with their 71-65 upset victory against Memphis as an 8.5-point underdog in the second round of this tournament yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: UAB enters this tournament rested and ready — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory against an American Athletic Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. The Blazers are one of the best offensive-rebounding teams in the country — they rank 22nd in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots. They also rank 22nd in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and they led the American Athletic Conference by making 75.7% of their shots on the charity stripe. These team attributes travel — UAB scores +4.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Overall, they rank 28th in the nation in their improvement when Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. Wichita State held the Tigers to just 36.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Shockers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a win against a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning three of their last four games so an emotional letdown this afternoon appears likely. Wichita State ranks only 205th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they score -3.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Overall, they rank 321st in the nation in the drop in their Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Shockers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court when an underdog getting up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Wichita State won the only meeting between these two teams back on February 28th by a 74-66 score as a 7.5-point underdog. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games playing with revenge including all four of those opportunities this season. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the UAB Blazers (830) minus the points versus Wichita State Shockers (829). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (818) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (817) in the Semifinals of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (20-11) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 89-69 victory against New Mexico State yesterday as a 6.5-point favorite. Middle Tennessee (14-18) has won two of their last three games after their 70-67 upset victory against Louisiana Tech as a 9-point underdog in their Quarterfinals contest in this tournament yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on UAB to embrace the reset the conference tournament offered — and they responded with the easy 20-point victory. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by double-digits. We expected a better defensive effort from them yesterday — and they held the Aggies to 45.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Western Kentucky is a pretty good defensive team — they ranked fourth in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the regular season. They are allowing -3.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Their raw numbers are propped up by their uber-fast pace. The Hilltoppers rank fourth in the nation by averaging only 14.6 seconds per possession — and their 75.1 adjusted possessions per game is the top number in the nation. They combine this fast pace with great shooting — they lead Conference USA with an effective field goal percentage of 54.6%. Western Kentucky has scored 79 or more points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Middle Tennessee played their best defensive game in their last four contests yesterday by holding the Bulldogs to just 39.7% shooting. But the Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two of their last three games. On the road, Middle Tennessee ranks just 330th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring -6.3 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. The Hilltoppers are outscoring their opponents by +5.7 Points-Per-Game — and the Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season games after the Blue Raiders won the most recent meeting by a 74-72 score as a 3.5-point home underdog on February 24th. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent. 8* CBB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (818) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (817). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (798) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (797) in the Quarterfinals of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (19-11) has lost four games in a row after their 82-79 loss at Liberty as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. New Mexico State (13-18) has won two games in a row after their 77-70 win against Florida International as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky allowed the Flames to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. They had not allowed an opponent to make 50% or more of their shots until their last two contests. The Hilltoppers have given up 82 or more points in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 road games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Western Kentucky is a pretty good defensive team — they rank fourth in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing -3.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Their raw numbers are propped up by their uber-fast pace. The Hilltoppers rank fourth in the nation by averaging only 14.6 seconds per possession — and their 75.1 adjusted possessions per game is the top number in the nation. They combine this fast pace with great shooting — they lead Conference USA with an effective field goal percentage of 54.6%. Western Kentucky has scored 79 or more points in three straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing four or five of their last six games. This is just their second game since March 2nd — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing for just the second time in the last eight days. New Mexico State nailed made 44.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They rank 297th in the nation and last in the Western Athletic Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Aggies scored 49 points in the first half of that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 45 or more points in the first half of their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning two of their last three games. Now they go back on the road where they have just one victory in 16 games — and they are getting outscored by -16.2 Points-Per-Game in those contests. New Mexico State only makes 40.5% of their shots including 25.5% of their 3-pointers on the road resulting in just 63.4 PPG. But the decline in defense when playing away from home is even more dramatic. They allow their opponents to make 37.8% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home resulting in 79.6 PPG. They are giving up +11.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. They rank 356th in the nation in the drop they experience in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against WAC rivals. Another intangible dragging this team down is that they rank 349th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and the Hilltoppers make 73.4% of their free throws. New Mexico State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games after Western Kentucky won the last meeting by a 72-58 score as a 9.5-point favorite on February 17th. But the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games in conference tournament action. 25* CBB Conference USA Game of the Year is with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (798) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (797). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Niagara Purple Eagles (791) plus the point(s) versus the Marist Red Foxes (792) in the Quarterfinals of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. THE SITUATION: Niagara (16-15) has won two of their last three games after their 67-65 victory against Siena as a 10.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Marist (17-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 63-62 win against Niagara as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PURPLE EAGLES PLUS THE POINT(S): Niagara should build off the momentum of their victory in the first round of this tournament on Tuesday — they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by three points or less in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two of their last three games. And in their last 12 road games when playing with one day or less of rest, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of those contests. The Purple Eagles are a good team away from home where they allow -10.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They also score +2.7 more points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. Overall, they rank third in the nation in the bump they receive in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from their home court. They lead the MAAC in getting to the free throw line — and the Red Foxes rank ninth defensively in that category in conference play. Niagara has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. Marist can struggle to score baskets — they rank 321st in the nation and ninth in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They held the Purple Eagles to just a 42.9% shooting percentage on Saturday which was the best defensive effort in their last three games — but the Red Foxes have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They have covered the point spread only once in their last six games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Marist ranks 229th in the nation in the drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency margin when playing away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 120s. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in March.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games with the Purple Eagles winning by five points in January. Niagara has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Niagara Purple Eagles (791) plus the point(s) versus the Marist Red Foxes (792). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (777) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (778) in the Quarterfinals of the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UCLA (16-16) has won two games in a row after their 67-57 victory against Oregon State as a 6-point favorite in the quarterfinals yesterday. Oregon (20-11) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 66-65 victory against Utah as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS THE PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA should build off their momentum from their triumph yesterday — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after a point-spread victory. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when playing with one day of rest. Additionally, the Bruins have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread after beating two straight conference opponents. Head coach Mick Cronin has this team playing better defense during this winning streak as they held both those opponents to just 53.5 Points-Per-Game. UCLA ranks 46th in the nation and third in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. And while they had lost five games in a row before this recent run, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Oregon held the Utes to just 41.1% shooting on Saturday which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Ducks still rank only tenth in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a Pac-12 opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home against a conference opponent. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings after the Bruins upset the Ducks by a 71-63 score as a 2.5-point underdog on February 3rd. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the UCLA Bruins (777) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (778). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (767) minus the points versus the Louisiana State Tigers (768) in the second round of the SEC Tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (19-12) has lost four games in a row after their 93-89 upset loss to South Carolina in overtime as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. LSU (17-14) has won three of their last four games after their 84-80 victory against Missouri as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State can reset their season after stumbling down the stretch of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two or more games in a row to an SEC rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing four of their last five games. The Bulldogs still have designs on making the NCAA Tournament after registering high-profile victories against Tennessee and Auburn. They also have wins against Washington State and Northwestern — and all three of those teams rank from #40 to #45 in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s analytics. But Mississippi State cannot afford a slip-up in this game. The Bulldogs rank 25th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are sixth in the nation by limiting their opponents to making just 29.4% of their 3-point attempts. They also rank 19th in the nation by pulling down 35.9% of their missed shots — and they should control the glass against this Tigers team that ranks 302nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 31.6% of their missed shots. Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral court. LSU has been inconsistent all season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing for just the second time in seven days. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games as an underdog including ten of their fifteen games as a dog this season.

FINAL TAKE: LSU wants to avenge an 87-67 loss to the Bulldogs at home back on February 24th where they were 3-point home dogs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities for some sweet same-season revenge. Mississippi State pulled down 16 offensive boards in that game representing 42.1% of their missed shots. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (767) minus the points versus the Louisiana State Tigers (768). Best of luck for us — Frank.

t 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (676) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (675) in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament. THE SITUATION: California (13-18) has lost three games in a row after their 80-58 loss at Stanford as a 4.5-point underdog last Thursday. Stanford (13-17) snapped a six-game losing streak with that victory. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: California limps into the postseason having lost three straight games by double-digits. But all three of those games were true road games played in hostile environments. They get a clean slate now playing in Las Vegas — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two or more games in a row. After losing by 29 points in their game before facing the Cardinal, they have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after losing two games in a row by 15 or more points. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. Stanford held Cal to just 35.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 17 contests. That game finished Under the 154.5-point Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing an Under in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after losing four of their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played with five or six days of rest. And while the Cardinal has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Stanford goes back on the road where they are making only 43.4% of their shots resulting in 68.9 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -3.6% and -7.6 PPG lower than their numbers on their home court. They are scoring -12 fewer points per 100 possessions when away from home — and they rank 337th in the nation in the drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. Stanford is getting outscored by -8.4 PPG when on the road — and they have failed to cover the points spread in 11 of their last 15 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s.

FINAL TAKE: Cal did win the first meeting between these two teams — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when motivated by some sweet same-season revenge. 10* CBB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (676) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (675). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306541) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306542) in the Championship Game of the Patriot League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Lehigh (14-17) has won two games in a row — and seven of their last nine contests — after their 84-79 win in overtime at Boston University as a 2-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament on Sunday. Colgate (24-9) is on a four-game winning streak after their 68-65 victory against Bucknell as a 12-point favorite in their semifinal contest on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAIN HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Lehigh was terrible in the first half on the road against the Terriers as they fell behind by 21 points before going into the locker room trailing by 18 points. They only made 40.0% of their shots in that game which was terrible worst shooting effort in their last three games. But they nailed 12 shots from behind the arc, made 24 of their 30 shots at the charity stripe, and forced 16 turnovers in 20.8% of Boston University’s possessions to rally back and steal the game. With that lesson in hand, the Mountain Hawks should play much better tonight and not dig themselves such a hole. They have held their last five opponents to 41.7% shooting resulting in just 66.0 Points-Per-Game. Their defense travels where they are quite comfortable — they are holding their home hosts to -3.9 points per 100 adjusted possessions. Even better, they score +8.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in hostile environments. Overall, Lehigh ranks fourth in the nation in their net improvement in Adjusted Efficiency Margin when playing in true road games. Not surprisingly, the Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Colgate held Bucknell to just 38.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But despite their four-game winning streak, the Raiders have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after two or more wins in a row where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread 7 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Colgate is vulnerable even as a Patriot League giant because they do not create additional scoring possessions. They only pull down 23.6% of their missed shots in conference play and they only force turnovers in 16.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and both those marks rank sixth in the Patriot League. They thrive by usually making the shots they take — but they were cold from behind the arc on Sunday as they made only 5 of their 25 (20%) shots from 3-point range. The Raiders have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their previous 4 games after failing to make more than 20% of their 3-pointers in their last game. They earned the right to host this game after winning the regular season crown — but they rank 246th in the nation in the drop Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home as opposed to their efficiency numbers when playing on the road. Colgate has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range.  

FINAL TAKE: Colgate swept both meetings with the Mountain Hawks in the regular season — but both their victories were by just three points including a 60-57 escape at home as an 11-point favorite on January 22nd. The Raiders then won by a 63-60 score on March 2nd — but Lehigh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Patriot League Tournament Game of the Year with the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306541) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oakland Grizzlies (624) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (623) in the Championship Game of the Horizon League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oakland (22-11) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last ten contests after their 74-71 victory against Cleveland State as a 3.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament last night. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (20-14) has won six straight games after their 82-75 upset victory against Northern Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog in their semifinal contest last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Oakland should have covered the point spread last night — but rather than letting a flung half-court shot by the Vikings go uncontested the Grizzlies player fouled the Cleveland State shooter giving them three shots at the charity stripe. Even after that, Oakland covers the -3.5 if they hit their final free throw with only a second or two left in the game — but, nope. The Grizzlies still won that game despite only making 38.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Oakland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a victory by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a win against a Horizon League rival by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Oakland has a 12-8 mark when playing away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games after winning three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road after a straight-up win. They rank 11th in the nation with their improvement in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court when favored by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in tournament action. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 150s. Wisconsin-Milwaukee held the Norse to host 39.1% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. But the Panthers still rank 312th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after winning two or more games in a row against conference rivals. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Panthers score -5.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted 100 possessions when playing on the road — and they rank 204th in the nation with their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Grizzlies make 45.0% of their shots — and Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against teams who make at least 45.0% of their shots. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Oakland swept the two regular season games between these two teams after their 90-87 win on the road on January 27th — and the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Horizon League Tournament Game of the Year with the Oakland Grizzlies (624) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (623). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Grizzlies (856) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (855) in the Semifinals of the Horizon League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oakland (21-11) has won two games in a row with six victories in their last seven contests after their 75-65 win against IUPUI-Fort Wayne as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. Cleveland State (20-13) has won three games in a row after their 82-70 upset victory as a 10-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Oakland is heating up on the offensive end of the court lately — they are making 48.1% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 79.0 Points-Per-Game. The Grizzlies should continue their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. Oakland has an 11-8 mark when playing away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after winning three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in tournament action. Cleveland State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after a straight-up victory. They have failed to cover the point spread after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they have scored 44 points in the first half in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after scoring 40 or more points in the first half in two or more games in a row. Cleveland State ranks only seventh in the Horizon League in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. When playing away from home, they are allowing their opponents to make 57.4% of their shots inside the arc and pull down 34.7% of their missed shots, ranking 353rd and 338th in the nation respectively. The Vikings are allowing +4.7 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road — and they rank 324th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings after the Grizzlies’ 83-71 victory as a 3.5-point home favorite on February 3rd — and the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with same-season revenge. 10* CBB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Oakland Grizzlies (856) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (855). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Lehigh Mountain Cats (306507) minus the point(s) versus the Boston University Terriers (306508) in the Semifinals of the Patriot League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Lehigh (13-17) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 76-61 victory at UL-Lafayette as a 2.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of this event on Thursday. Boston University (16-16) has won six straight games after their 70-61 victory as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday in their quarterfinals contest.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAIN HAWKS MINUS THE POINT(S): Lehigh has still won six of their last eight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a victory by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games. The Mountain Hawks have not allowed more than 64 points in four straight contests — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two or more games in a row. They have held their last five opponents to 39.9% shooting resulting in just 61.0 Points-Per-Game. Their defense travels where they are quite comfortable — they are holding their home hosts to -4.3 points per 100 adjusted possessions. Even better, they score +8.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in hostile environments. Overall, Lehigh ranks second in the nation in their net improvement in Adjusted Efficiency Margin when playing in true road games. Not surprisingly, the Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games with the Total set in the 130s. Boston University has survived two overtime games during their six-game winning streak — including their upset win on the road against Lehigh on February 28th. The Terriers held the Midshipmen to 36.1% shooting in their most recent game which was the best defensive performance in their last four contests. But the Terriers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. And while they have won eight of their last ten games, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games after winning eight or more of their last ten contest. They get to host this semifinal contest as the higher two-seed in this tournament — but they are surrendering +14.2 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home. They rank 334th in the nation and ninth in the Patriot League in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games at home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Boston swept both regular-season meetings against the Mountain Hawks after that 64-62 upset win on the road as a 6-point underdog on February 28th — but Lehigh has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 opportunities for some sweet same-season revenge. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Lehigh Mountain Cats (306507) minus the point(s) versus the Boston University Terriers (306508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (696) minus the point(s) versus the Wyoming Cowboys (695). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (11-19) has lost six straight games after their 79-58 loss at New Mexico as an 18-point underdog on Wednesday. Wyoming (14-16) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 74-63 win at home against Air Force as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINT(S): Fresno State has endured some tough luck during their current losing streak. They lost by only two points at home to UNLV before losing in overtime at home to Utah State. They only made 32.7% of their shots in Albuquerque against the Lobos which was the second-worst shooting effort of their season. But the Bulldogs have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two or more games in a row to Mountain West Conference rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after losing three or more games in a row. Additionally, Fresno State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 60 points in their last game. They return home where they are making 47.4% of their shots resulting in 70.9 Points-Per-Game. They are scoring +7.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on their home court. They rank 58th in the nation by making 56.0% of their shots at home inside the arc — and the Cowboys are vulnerable defending the interior as they rank 345th in the nation by allowing their home hosts to make 57.0% of their shots inside the arc. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. Wyoming held the Falcons to just 41.2% shooting which was the second-best defensive effort of their season. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by ten or more points against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they only have a 5-11 record with an average losing margin of -8.4 PPG. They only make 42.7% of their shots on the road resulting in just 67.2 PPG — and they are scoring -4.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs want to avenge a 68-67 loss to the Cowboys in Laramie as a 3.5-point underdog back on January 13th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss by three points or less. 10* CBB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Fresno State Bulldogs (696) minus the point(s) versus the Wyoming Cowboys (695). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Western Illinois Leathernecks (885) plus the points versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (886) in the Semifinals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Illinois (21-11) won for the fourth straight time with their 61-59 triumph against Tennessee State as a 2.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of this event yesterday. Arkansas-Little Rock (20-11) has won nine straight games after their 81-43 victory against Tennessee Tech as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana.

REASONS TO THE LEATHERNECKS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Illinois survived yesterday’s game despite making only 37.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But the Leathernecks controlled the boards with a 52-36 edge in rebounds — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after out-rebounding their previous opponent by +15 or more boards. This team does two things well that usually translate to neutral courts. First, Western Illinois ranks 13th in the nation by pulling down 37.1% of their missed shots — and they lead the Ohio Valley Conference by rebounding 39.2% of their misses. They grabbed 19 second chances yesterday representing 45.2% of their missed shots. They should control the offensive glass tonight as well — the Trojans rank 227th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.0% of their missed shots. Second, the Leathernecks play great half-court defense. They rank 14th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1%. They also rank 20th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line — so they make it very tough on their opponents to score points. Western Illinois has not allowed more than 65 points in their last two games — and they have ten covered the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have covered the points spread in 15 of their last 19 games when playing with one day or less of rest. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. Additionally, they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three contests. They have an 11-6 record away from home where they are scoring +2.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions while holding their opponents to -4.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They rank 25th in the nation in their improved play away from home in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency. They are holding teams to just 40.6% shooting including a 28.9% clip from behind the arc resulting in 66.8 Points-Per-Game. Western Illinois ranks eighth in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6% when playing on the road. They hold these teams to just 46.8% shooting inside the arc, ranking 21st in the nation — and they allow these opponents to make only 28.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking ninth in the nation. The Leathernecks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against Ohio Valley Conference opponents. Little Rock held Tennessee Tech to just 30% shooting last week which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Trojans have scored at least 80 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after winning five or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after winning six or more games in a row. On the road, they have a 6-7 record while making 46.0% of their shots. They only hit 30.0% of the 3-pointers away from home, ranking 297th in the nation. They score -2.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. But the bigger concern is on the other end of the court where they allow +7.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when away from home. They rank 335th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Little Rock won the first meeting between these two teams in a 63-60 upset win as a 1.5-point road underdog back on February 28th — but the Leathernecks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Underdog of the Year with the Western Illinois Leathernecks (885) plus the points versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (886). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (774) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (773). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (12-17) has lost eight of their last nine games after their 78-71 loss at Oregon as a 13.5-point underdog last Thursday. Utah (18-11) has won three of their last four games after their 88-59 victory against California as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon State allowed the Ducks to make 49.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. Now after playin' their last three games on the road, they return home where they have an 11-5 record with an average winning margin of +5.6 net Points-Per-Game. They are scoring +1.2 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home — and they are giving up -8.8 points per 100 adjusted possessions on their home court. Oregon State ranks eighth in the nation in the bump up in Adjusted Net Efficiency when they are playing on their home court. The Beavers hold their opponents to just 41.1% shooting and a 30.9% mark from behind the arc resulting in 67.6 Points-Per-Game. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Utah nailed 50.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting mark in their last 16 contests. They also held the Golden Bears to 34.4% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. After playing one of their best games of the season, the Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win against a Pac-12 rival in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread only once in their last four games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have a 4-9 record with an average losing margin of -7.9 PPG. Utah is only making 43.5% of their shots on the road including just 32.1% of their 3-pointers resulting in 71.3 PPG. They are scoring -7.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in hostile environments. They are allowing their home hosts to make 47.8% of their shots including 38.0% of their 3-pointers resulting in 79.2 PPG. The Utes are giving up +11.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions in true road games. Utah ranks 171st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments — and their opponent's effective field goal percentage of 55.2% ranks 319th in the nation. Furthermore, they rank 361st in the nation in the drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games in conference play. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as a favorite or a pick ‘em.  

FINAL TAKE: Utah won the first meeting between these two teams at home at Salt Lake City by a 74-47 score as a 15-point favorite. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 10 of their 13 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 game games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Pac-12 Underdog of the Year with Oregon State Beavers (774) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (773). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (752) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (751). THE SITUATION: Oregon (19-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 103-83 loss at Arizona as a 14-point underdog on Saturday. Colorado (20-9) has won four games in a row after their 81-71 victory as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon allowed the Wildcats to make 60.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. The Ducks have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 85 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, Oregon has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss to a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss by 15 or more points. Now after playing only one time at home in their last five games, they return to Eugene for only the second time since February 10th to defend their 12-2 record. The Ducks are outscoring their guests by +9.6 Points-Per-Game. They are holding their visitors to just 43.7% shooting including a 30.9% mark from behind the arc. Colorado has made at least 50% of their shots in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after making 47% or more of their shots in three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after shooting 50% or better from the field in three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. The Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. And while they have won their last three games by double-digits, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games after winning at least two games in a row against Pac-12 rivals by 10 or more points. After playing their last three games at home, Colorado goes back on the road where they have a 4-8 record with an average losing margin of -2.5 PPG. They are allowing their home hosts to make 47.2% of their shots including 37.2% of their 3-pointers resulting in 77.2 PPG.    

FINAL TAKE: The Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 46 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. 10* CBB Colorado-Oregon ESPN2 Special with Oregon Ducks (752) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (702) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (701). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (23-6) has won three games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 60-52 victory at Central Florida as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. BYU (21-8) has won two games in a row after their 87-75 victory as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: The Cougars nailed 52.5% of their shots against the Horned Frogs which was the best shooting mark in their last nine contests. But BYU has then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home where they beat a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they have lost six of their eight games this season. While the Cougars rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in one set of power rankings I follow, they drop to 45th in the nation using those numbers when playing in hostile environments. They are scoring -6.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in true road games — and they are allowing +8.3 more points per 100 adjusted possessions in those games. Their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing in hostile environments is the 317th-worst discrepancy in the nation. They rank just 131st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are allowing their home hosts to make 35.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 224th in the nation. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning three of their last four games. They return home where they are 17-0 and rank third in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when assessing home court play. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when favored.                      

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State wants to avenge an 87-72 loss at BYU as a 4-point road underdog back on January 16th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 opportunities for revenge from a loss on the road. 8* CBB BYU-Iowa State ESPN2 Special with the Iowa State Cyclones (702) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (701). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (708) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (707). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (18-11) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 75-70 victory against Penn State as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Indiana (16-13) has won two games in a row after their 83-78 upset win at Maryland as a 9-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win. And while they have scored 75 or more points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Golden Gophers stay at home where they have a 16-2 record this season with an average winning margin of +12.7 Points-Per-Game. They are nailing 48.2% of their shots resulting in 78.6 PPG. They are also holding their guests to 41.7% shooting including a 33.7% mark from behind the arc resulting in just 65.9 PPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 19 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games when favored. Indiana has pulled off two straight upset victories as their victory in College Park was preceded by a 74-70 upset win at home against Wisconsin. But the Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory on the road. Now Indiana goes back on the road where they are just 5-8 with an average losing margin of -7.0 PPG. Head coach Mike Woodson is running an offense Bobby Knight would appreciate as they rely on shooting inside the arc and getting to the free-throw line. But this approach may be outdated — and they rank 315th in the nation by only making 29.7% of their shots from 3-point land. This Indiana team does not play defense like Knight’s team of old either — they are allowing 78.8 PPG when playing on the road. The Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota wants to avenge a 74-62 loss at Indiana back on January 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 opportunities for revenge. The Golden Gophers have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games when playing with revenge for a loss on the road. 10* CBB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (708) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (707). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (700) plus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (699). THE SITUATION: North Texas (16-12) has won two games in a row after their 84-69 victory against East Carolina as a 9-point favorite on Sunday. Florida Atlantic (22-7) has won two of their last three games after their 79-73 victory against Tulane as a 16.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN MINUS THE POINTS: Even in victory, North Texas allowed the Pirates to make 53.2% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort of their season. The Mean Green have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win by 10 or more points on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after winning two or more games in a row. North Texas stays at home where they have an 11-3 record with an average winning margin of +12.5 Points-Per-Game. The Mean Green ranks fifth in the nation by making 42.2% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. They also rank third in the American Athletic Conference by pulling down 37.0% of their missed shots when playing at home. They also rank third in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in AAC action. They are holding their opponents to 39.5% shooting including a 31.1% mark from behind the arc resulting in 61.6 Points-Per-Game. North Texas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as an underdog. FAU has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up victory at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Now the Owls go back on the road where they have lost six of their seven games this season. They rank 252nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. They also rank 247th in the nation by allowing their home hosts to rebound 31.2% of their missed shots. FAU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games as a favorite or as a pick ‘em. The Owls are scoring -6.3 points per 100 adjusted possessions in hostile environments while allowing their home hosts to score +9.6 more points per 100 adjusted points — and those marks represent the 355th worst drop in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: The Mean Green are motivated to avenge a 66-63 loss at FAU as a 9.5-point underdog back on January 28th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss on the road. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with the North Texas Mean Green (700) plus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (699). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (654) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (653). THE SITUATION: UNLV (18-10) has won four games in a row as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 68-50 victory against San Jose State as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. San Diego State (22-7) has won two games in a row after their 72-64 win against San Jose State as a 21.5-point favorite last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RUNNIN’ REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: UNLV should continue their big momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home by double-digits. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when playing for the second time in seven days. They have a 10-4 record on their home court with an average winning margin of +9.7 Points-Per-Game. The Runnin’ Rebels have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games in conference play. Over their last ten games, they rank 36th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and this improvement has been fueled on the defensive end of the court where they rank eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in those ten games. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win against a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning two games in a row against a conference opponent. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. All seven of their losses are away from home this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road.   

FINAL TAKE: San Diego State won the first meeting between these two teams by a 72-61 score on January 6th — but the Runnin’ Rebels have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge. 8* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (654) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (306510) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306509) in the Quarterfinals of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Eastern Kentucky (17-13) has lost two games in a row after their 81-67 loss at Lipscomb as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday. Jacksonville (15-16) snapped their two-game losing streak before their 92-86 upset win at Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point underdog in the first round of this tournament last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLONELS MINUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins broke out by making 50.0% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort in their last 22 games. They nailed 13 of their 21 shots 61.9% from behind the arc in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers in their last game. That performance was well out of character for this Jacksonville team that ranks last in the Atlantic Sun in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and their 47.3% effective field goal percentage. They rank 281st in the nation by making only 30.3% of their shots from behind the arc. I hate the situation the Dolphins are now in having to travel from Georgia to Kentucky without a day of rest as this tournament continues. As it is, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when playing for the second time in three days or less. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. The Dolphins are just 3-13 away from home — and they rank 330th in the nation and last in the Atlantic Sun in Adjusted Net Efficiency in hostile environments. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread on the road with the Total set in the 140s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. They face an angry Eastern Kentucky team that only made 39.7% of their shots last Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. The Colonels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road -- and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss on the road. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in four or more games in a row. Eastern Kentucky returns where they have a 10-3 record with an average winning margin of 14.3 Points-Per-Game. They rank 203rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency on their home court (not bad for a low mid-major) while leading the Atlantic Sun in that metric. They are scoring 87.1 PPG at home from 48.7% shooting from the field and a 38.4% clip from behind the arc, ranking 42nd in the nation. The Dolphins play pretty good defense — but they rank 313th in the nation by allowing their home hosts to make 38.1% of their 3-pointers. The Colonels have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Eastern Kentucky ranks third in the conference in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in March. They also lead the Atlantic Sun with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.7%.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville wants to avenge a 75-59 loss at Eastern Kentucky as an 11-point underdog on January 25th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities for revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (306510) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (884) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). THE SITUATION: Northern Arizona (14-17) has lost two of their last three games after their 85-58 loss at Weber State as a 12.5-point underdog on Saturday. Northern Colorado (18-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with an 81-79 upset victory against Idaho State as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LUMBERJACKS PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Arizona only made 31.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 15 games. They also allowed the Wildcats to make 50.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests. The Lumberjacks should bounce back tonight — they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss to a Big Sky Conference rival including five of those last seven circumstances this season. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games. They return home where they have a 7-4 record this season while holding their opponents to just 43.9% shooting including a 30.2% mark from behind the arc. Northern Arizona plays solid half-court defense when playing at home — they rank fourth in the Big Sky with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.9% on their home court and they rank in the top-four in both 3-point defense and 2-point defense at home in conference play. The Lumberjacks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog or a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Head coach Shane Burcar led his team to a big March run last year — they reached the Big Sky Conference Tournament Championship Game despite a 5-13 record in conference play in the regular season. Under Burcar, Northern Arizona has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in March. They have also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 47 games as an underdog. They now host a Northern Colorado team that is a vulnerable road favorite. The Bears rank 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments — and they rank eighth in the Big Sky in that category when on the road. They have a 7-9 record on the road while getting outscored by -1.2 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to score 81.9 PPG while making 47.2% of their shots including 37.0% of their 3-pointers, ranking 287th in the nation when assessing play on the road. They rank 304th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. They made 60.0% of their shots on Saturday against the Bengals which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. They have scored 81 points in two straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Lumberjacks are vulnerable against good offensive rebounding teams — but that is not the Bears who rank 307th in the nation in that category. And while Northern Arizona only makes 43.6% of their shots, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who are not making more than 45% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: Northern Arizona looks to avenge a 92-87 loss at Northern Colorado on December 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points. The Lumberjacks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Underdog of the Year with the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (884) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (771). THE SITUATION: Alabama (20-8) has won four of their last five games after their 103-88 victory at Mississippi as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Tennessee (22-6) has won five games in a row after their 92-84 victory against Auburn as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: Alabama has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when playing for the second time in seven days. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in Adjusted Offense Efficiency. They have scored 80 or more points in nine straight games — and they have scored 90 or more points in five straight contests. They return home where they rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Alabama has a 14-1 record on their home court with an average winning margin of +25.2 Points-Per-Game. They are making 50.1% of their shots on their home court including 41.1 of their 3-pointers which ranks 15th best in the nation. And after allowing Kentucky and then Ole Miss to make 63.1% and 51.9% of their shots against them, they come back home where they are holding their guests to 39.7% shooting including a 28.3% mark from behind the arc resulting in 70.6 PPG. The Crimson Tide has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set at 160 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when favored. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games after a straight-up win at home. And while they have won and covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after covering the point spread as the favorite in two or more games in a row. They scored 86 or more points in both of those games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 85 or more points in two or more games in a row. And while the Volunteers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Tennessee ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home, they go back on the road where they drop to 17th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. The Volunteers rank 228th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line in true road games. They also rank 276th in the nation by allowing their home hosts to make 36.5% of their 3-pointers. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Crimson Ride will be motivated to avenge a 91-71 loss at Tennessee in their lowest-scoring game of the season as they missed 17 of their 21 shots from behind the arc. But Alabama has still covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Tennessee-Alabama ESPN Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (771). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (738) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (737). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (21-6) has won five of their last six games after their 71-64 victory against West Virginia as an 18-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma (84-82) snapped a two-game losing streak in an 84-82 upset win in overtime at Oklahoma State as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State was flat against the Mountaineers over the weekend as they allowed them to make 47.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Despite that performance, the Cyclones still rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 home games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also covered the points spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win against a Big 12 rival. And while this is just their second game since last Monday, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when play for the second time in eight or more days. The Cyclones stay at home where they have a 16-0 record with an average winning margin of +25.8 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the nation in Net Efficiency Margin when looking only at home court advantages. They are making 49.9% of their shots at home including 39.1% of their 3-pointers which is the 32nd-best mark in the nation — resulting in 82.9 PPG. On the other end of the court, they are holding their guests to just 38.7% shooting including a 31.2% mark from behind the arc resulting in just 57.1 PPG. They also rank third in the nation by forcing turnovers in 27.0% of their opponent’s possessions — and they should force plenty of turnovers against this Sooners team that ranks 222nd in the nation by turning the ball over in 17.7% of their possessions. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight home games with the Total set in the 130s. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams who are winning 60-80% of their games. Oklahoma nailed 50.7% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. But the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win against a Big 12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their previous games this season after pulling off an upset victory. Oklahoma did allow the Cowboys to make 57.4% of their shots in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 55% or more of their shots. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after giving up 80 or more points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have a 6-5 record with an average losing margin of -1.1 PPG — but their drop in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing in a hostile environment presents the 243rd biggest discrepancy in the nation relative to their play at home. They only make 44.9% of their shots on the road in hostile environments including just 29.4% of their 3-pointers which is the 306th lowest mark in the nation. Oklahoma ranks 206nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 48.4% — and that drop compared to their eFG when at home or on a neutral court of -6.8% is the 332nd biggest discrepancy in the nation. On defense, the Sooners are allowing +9.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing in a hostile environment which is the 344th worst discrepancy versus their defensive efficiency at home or on a neutral court. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State wants to avenge a 71-63 loss at Oklahoma back on January 6th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities for revenge from a loss on the road. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month is with the Iowa State Cyclones (738) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (737). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (306555) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (306556). THE SITUATION: UMBC (9-19) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in a 62-56 loss at Maine as a 4.5-point underdog. New Hampshire (15-10) has won two of their last three games in an 83-78 victory against the New Jersey Institute of Technology as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RETRIEVERS PLUS THE POINTS: Maryland-Baltimore Country only made 37.3% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 26 contests. Despite that disappointing performance, the Retrievers still lead the America East Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they rank 31st in the nation with their 53.1% effective field goal percentage. UMBC generates good looks at the basket when playing away from home because they play at a blistering pace — they rank second in the nation by averaging only 14.4 seconds per possession. They also rank seventh in the country by averaging 73.4 adjusted possessions per game. While the Retrievers have just a 4-9 record in conference play, seven of their losses have been by six points or less — and two of those losses were by just two points or less. UMBC should play better this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games after a straight-up loss this season. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss to an American East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 160s. The Retrievers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. New Hampshire nailed 53.7% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort of the season. The Wildcats converted 11 of their 27 (40.7%) of their 3-pointers in that game — but now they play a UMBC team that ranks 26th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 30.6% shooting from behind the arc. New Hampshire has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when playing with just one day of rest. The Wildcats rank just eighth in the American East in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing at home in conference play — and UMBC ranks fourth in the conference in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing on the road against American East foes. New Hampshire is only making 44.3% of their shots including 34.6% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. This team also plays at a fast pace — they rank 26th in the nation by averaging only 15.6 seconds per possession and they rank 21st by averaging 71.2 adjusted possessions per game. But New Hampshire tends to underachieve against similar fast-paced teams. UMBC averages 64 shots per game — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after 15 games into the season against teams who launch 62 or more shots per game. On the other hand, while New Hampshire averages 62 shots per game, the Retrievers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who take 62 or more shots per game.

FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats did win the first meeting between these two teams in a 64-58 win on the road as a 3-point favorite on January 20th — but UMBC has covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 opportunities for revenge this season. The Retrievers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB American East Underdog of the Year with the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (306555) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (306556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Wildcats (834) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (833). THE SITUATION: Arizona (20-5) rides a six-game winning streak after their 105-60 victory against Arizona State as an 18.5-point favorite on Saturday. Washington State (20-6) has won seven games in a row and 10 of their last 11 contests after their 72-59 victory against Stanford as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Arizona is clicking on all cylinders right now after point guard Kylan Boswell stepped up from a slow start earlier in the season. During this six-game winning streak, Boswell is scoring 10.5 Points-Per-Game while making 35.4% of his shots from behind the arc and dishing out 4.0 Assists-Per-Game. For the fifth-scoring option, those are nice complementary numbers to Caleb Love and Oumar Ballo who are combining to score 31.8 PPG. The Wildcats are a legitimate contender to win the NCAA Tournament — and it starts with their balance on both ends of the court. Arizona ranks sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 11th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They should continue their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight contests, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Additionally,  the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring 95 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 65 points in their last contest. They stay at home where they have a 13-0 record with an average winning margin of +30.7 net Points-Per-Game. Arizona is holding their guests to just 38.7% shooting resulting in just 63.6 PPG. They are also nailing 51.9% of their shots including 39.7% of their 3-pointers en route to 94.3 PPG when playing at home. Led by Ballo, they also rank 13th in the country by pulling down 39.0% of their missed shots. Only UCLA and Stanford have played within 11 points of the Wildcats in their 13 wins at home — their next closest home game was their 15-point victory against USC. Arizona has covered the point spread in 10 of their 13 home games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when laying 12.5 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their 15 games this season as a double-digit favorite. Washington State has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a double-digit win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games when playing on the road after a double-digit victory. And while their win against the Cardinal was preceded by a 99-79 victory at Colorado, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after two straight wins by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after two straight wins on their home court by double-digits. But now after playing their last two games at home to raise their record to 13-1 in front of their home fans, they go back on the road where they are just 7-5. The Cougars will struggle to score tonight — they only make 44.2% of their shots on the road resulting in 70.5 PPG. They rank 207th in the country by making only 32.3% of their shots from behind the arc. Washington State makes up for their mediocre shooting by pulling down 30.4% of their missed shots in conference play, ranking second in the Pac-12 — but good luck with that against the Wildcats who rank third in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 22.8% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has had this game circled since their 73-70 upset loss at Washington State as a 9-point road favorite back on January 13th. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities for revenge from an upset loss on the road. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Arizona Wildcats (834) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (833). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Northern Kentucky Norse (752) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (751). THE SITUATION: Northern Kentucky (14-13) saw their three-game snapped in a 73-72 loss at Wisconsin-Milwaukee as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Cleveland State (16-11) has won two of their last three games after an 81-73 upset win against Youngstown State as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NORSE MINUS THE POINTS: Northern Kentucky should bounce back with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss to a Horizon League rival. The Norse have still covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after covering the point spread in their last two contests. This team leads the Horizon League in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 35th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponents' possessions — and they force turnovers in 22.0% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on their home court. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return to play for just the second time since last Wednesday — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when playing for the second time in eight days. Northern Kentucky has a 10-3 record at home with an average winning margin of +11.2 net Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 44.4% shooting at home including a 29.9% clip from behind the arc resulting in 69.5 PPG. They also rank 56.6% of their shots inside the arc at home which ranks 49th in the nation — and they are making 48.9% of their shots at home overall resulting in 80.7 PPG. Northern Kentucky has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after playing their last two games on the road. Cleveland State held the Penguins to just 43.1% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. They also nailed 53.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games and tied for their best effort in their last 20 contests. But the Vikings have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, while they have won four of their last six games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where their defense falters — they rank 328th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Of particular concern is their interior defense when playing Northern Kentucky — they allow their opponents to make 57.8% of their shots inside the arc when on the road, ranking 351st in the nation. They also allow their opponents to pull down 36.5% of their missed shots when playing away from home, ranking 339th in the nation. The Norse pull down a solid 31.9% of their misses when playing at home. Cleveland State has a 4-9 record on the road with an average losing margin of -4.7 PPG. They allow their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots away from home resulting in 77.6 PPG. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set in the 145-149.5 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last two games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog of up to six points or a pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games in 10 of their last 14 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have 9-7 records in the Horizon League — but Cleveland State won the first meeting between these teams by an 88-85 score at home as a 4.5-point favorite on January 7th. The Norse have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Horizon League Game of the Year with the Northern Kentucky Norse (752) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (714) minus the point(s) versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (713). THE SITUATION: Indiana (14-11) has lost two games in a row after their 76-72 upset loss at home to Northwestern as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Nebraska (18-8) has won two games in a row with their 68-49 victory at home against Penn State as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Indiana needs a victory after a bad stretch in Big Ten plays. The Hoosiers have still covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Indiana stays at home where they have a 10-4 record while making 48.4% of their shots and limiting their opponents to just 40.7% shooting. Nebraska’s victory against the Nittany Lions finished Under the 151.5-point total for that game. But the Cornhuskers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games on the road after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. They go back on the road where they are just 2-7 with an average losing margin of -5.5 Points-Per-Game. Nebraska has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games on the road including six of their last eight contests away from home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana wants to avenge an 86-70 loss at Nebraska back on January 3rd — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 8* CBB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Indiana Hoosiers (714) minus the point(s) versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (713). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Samford Bulldogs (692) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (691). THE SITUATION: Samford (23-4) was on a six-game winning streak before their 88-84 upset loss at Mercer as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. Furman (15-12) has won three games in a row with their 82-65 victory against UT-Chattanooga as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Samford might be coming off their worst-played game of the season. They allowed the Bears to make 54.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 26 games. They also only made 43.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests — and tied for the worst shooting performance in their last 25 games. They should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss to a Southern Conference opponent. The Bulldogs should shoot much better tonight as they rank sixth in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 57.2%. While they rank 27th in the nation with their shooting inside the arc, their 40.5% clip from behind the arc is the best mark in the country. Samford combines this excellent shooting by playing at a very fast pace. They rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Possessions per game — and they are sixth in the nation by averaging only 15.0 seconds per possession. Additionally, the Bulldogs push the pace by pressing on defense — they rank 13th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.4% of their opponents' possessions. After scoring 170 combined points in their last two games, Samford has scored at least 75 points in seven straight contests. They have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after scoring 75 or more points in five or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored 80 or more combined points. They return home where they have a 15-0 record with an average winning margin of +21.2 Points-Per-Game. The Bulldogs hold their opponents to just 43.1% shooting when playing at home — but they are nearly unstoppable on the other end of the court. They are making 52.4% of their shots on their home court including a nation-leading 43.9% of their shots from 3-point range resulting in 97.0 Points-Per-Game. Samford has covered the point spread in 8 of their 13 boarded games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. They have also covered the point spread in expected high-scoring games where the Total is set at 160 or higher. Furman played their best defensive game of the season on Sunday by holding the Moccasins to just 33.9% shooting. And while the Paladins do a good job in defending the perimeter, they rank 332nd in the nation when playing on the road by allowing their opponents to make 56.1% of their shots inside the arc. Furman had not covered the point spread in six straight games before their triumph against Chattanooga — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four of their last five games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road where they are just 4-10 while allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots and score 80.8 PPG. On the other end of the court, the Paladins only make 42.6% of their shots including just 32.4% of their shots from 3-point range resulting in 77.9 PPG. Furman scores 80.0 PPG this season — but the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams scoring 77.0 or more PPG. The Paladins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Furman won the first meeting between these two teams by a 78-68 score back on January 24th — but Samford has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 opportunities for same-season revenge. The Paladins are outscoring their opponents by +4.5 PPG — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB Southern Conference Game of the Year is with the Samford Bulldogs (692) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (691). Best of luck for us — Frank.