06-22-19 |
Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
Top |
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (913) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (914) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Beede and Zack Godley. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (32-43) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 11-5 win over the Diamondbacks. Arizona (38-39) has lost five straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants played their fourth straight game Over the Total last night — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-1 in San Fran’s last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have now played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NL East opponents. Furthermore, the Giants have played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 14-6-2 in their last 22 road games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 17 road games as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range, San Francisco has played 11 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Beede who is 1-2 with a 6.67 ERA with a 1.91 WHIP in 28 1/3 innings of work. The former first-round pick picked up his first win in MLB on Monday in Los Angeles against the Dodgers — but he still has a troubling 6.75 ERA when pitching on the road. Beede has also struggled in night games where he has a 7.97 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282. The rookie has an uninspiring 32:22 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season. The Giants have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Beede on the mound as an underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. He faces a Diamondbacks team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Arizona has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by at least five runs. This team has also played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Godley who is 3-4 with a 6.52 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in fifteen appearances which include eleven starts. The right-hander has been clobbered when pitching at home in Chase Field where he has a 7.09 ERA in eight games which includes five starts. Godley also is saddled with a 7.33 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .288 in six starts (eleven appearances) at night. The seeds in Godley’s decline were evident last year where his Ground Ball rate declined by 6.5% while his walk rate of 4.09 Bases-on-Balls per 9 innings was over 1.0 Walk higher per 9 innings than in 2017. Godley will not pitch deep into this game — especially when considering that he had an ugly 9.20 ERA when going through the batting order for the third time last year. But the Arizona bullpen has struggled with a 7.22 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP in their last seven games. The Diamondbacks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Godley facing a team with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a loss where they allowed at least 10 runs. These two teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total. Expect another higher-scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (913) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (914) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Beede and Zack Godley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-21-19 |
Padres v. Pirates OVER 9 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-113 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (958) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: San Diego (38-37) comes off a four-game sweep of the Brewers after their 8-7 victory on Wednesday. Pittsburgh (33-40) has won two of their last three games with their 8-7 win over Detroit on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 11-4-1 in the Padres’ last 16 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 8-2-2 in their last 12 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 5-0-2 in San Diego’s last 7 games after an off day. The Padres have played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total after a win. And while the San Diego bullpen did not allow a run in their last game against the Brewers, they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow an earned run. The Padres stay on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Lauer who is 5-6 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has thrived in the spacious confirms of Petco Park where he has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244 — but those numbers skyrocket to a 7.81 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310 in his six starts on the road. The Over is 5-0-2 in San Diego’s last 7 games on the road with Lauer on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Pirates team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .301 batting average along with a .349 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .855 over that span. The Over is 15-5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Additionally, the Over is 14-4-2 in the Pirates’ last 20 games after a victory. Furthermore, the Over is 21-5-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 28 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Pirates have played 8 straight home games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after an off day. Pittsburgh stays at home where the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Musgrove who is 4-7 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in fourteen starts (fifteen appearances) this year. The left-hander has particularly struggled at home where he has a 5.71 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .284 in six starts. The Pirates have played 5 straight home games Over the Total with Musgrove on the hill. He also faces a hot-hitting team right now with the Padres scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .331 batting average along with a .391 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .961 in those games. San Diego has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played in mid-May with the Pirates winning the last three games on the road despite being the underdog. The Padres have played 23 of their last 31 road games Over the Total when playing with at least double revenge after being upset as a home favorite in their last two games with their current opponent. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (958) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-19-19 |
White Sox v. Cubs UNDER 7 |
Top |
3-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (979) and the Chicago Cubs (980) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: The White Sox (35-36) won the opening game of this series last night with their 3-1 victory. The White Sox have won four of their last six games while the Cubs (39-33) has lost four of their last five contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The White Sox have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last game. And while the White Sox have not committed an error in three straight games, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after not committing an error in two straight contests. This team has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is a decisive 46-21-3 in their last 70 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Giolito who is 10-1 with a 2.22 ERA and a WHIP of 0.95 in thirteen starts. The young phenom has allowed only one earned run over his last three starts for a minuscule 0.43 ERA along with a 0.76 WHIP over 21 innings. The right-hander has been particularly effective on the road where he owns a 1.48 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .156 in six starts. The White Sox have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total with Giolito on the hill — and this includes them playing their last 4 road games Under the Total with him on the hill. The White Sox have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Giolito looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Cubs team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a low .223 batting average along with a .270 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .635.
|
06-17-19 |
Mets v. Braves OVER 9 |
Top |
3-12 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (953) and the Atlanta Braves (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Soroka. THE SITUATION: New York (34-37) has lost three of their last four games with their 4-3 loss to St. Louis yesterday. Atlanta (42-30) has won nine of their last ten games after they crushed Philadelphia yesterday by a 15-1 score on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 10-1-1 in the Braves’ last 12 games after a win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Atlanta’s bullpen has pitched 9 1/3 combined innings over their last two games — and they have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total when their bullpen has logged in at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. The Over is also 12-3-1 in the Braves’ last 16 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Soroka who is 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP in eleven starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not bullish on the rookie right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.93 and 3.59 moving forward. Soroka opened the season with an unsustainable low Batting Average for the Balls he Allowed Into Play (BABIP) and Home Run to Fly Ball rate — and the that he is still leaving 77.6% of the runners left on base when retiring the side is well above the league average. But the right-hander has seen the Regression Gods already visit him a few times this month as he has a 4.12 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP over his last three starts while striking out only 14 batters in 19 2/3 innings of work. Soroka has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.03 mark along with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in five starts as compared to his filthy 1.11 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and .154 opponent’s batting average on the road. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Soroka facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 games after a loss. Additionally, New York has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total in night games. They counter with Wheeler who is 5-4 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he has a 5.48 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in seven starts. The Over is 7-3-2 in the Mets’ last 12 road games with Wheeler on the mound. The Over is also 6-0-2 in New York’s last 8 games with Wheeler pitching on five days of rest. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 9.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .342 batting average along with a .402 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 1.056 over that span. Atlanta is scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home — and the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves have scored at least nine runs twelve times this season. They face a pitcher in Wheeler who has already surrendered 13 home runs this season. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (953) and the Atlanta Braves (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Soroka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-19 |
Mariners v. A's OVER 9 |
Top |
2-11 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (977) and the Oakland A’s (978) listing both starting pitchers Gerson Bautista and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: Seattle (30-43) won the opening game of this series last night by a 9-2 score over Oakland (35-35) in Oakland Alameda County Coliseum.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win — and the Over is also 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They stay on the road where the Over is a decisive 34-16-1 in their last 51 games — and the Over is also 11-3-1 in Seattle’s last 15 road games against teams with a losing record. And while the A’s are 18-14 at home this year, the Mariners have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Seattle has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the month of June — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow AL West foes. They will be using an opening tonight with Bautista taking the hill with his 5.40 ERA and 2.40 WHIP in just 3 1/3 innings of work. Bautista had a 12.46 ERA with a 3.00 WHIP in 4 1/3 innings of work last season. Let’s put it this way: although Bautista has appeared in only eight games in his major league career since debuting last year, he has allowed at least one run in six of those contests. So when Wade LeBlanc enters this game in the second inning, there is a good chance that the A’s will already have runs on the board. The left-hander has a 3-2 record this year with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in six starts/eight appearances this season. LeBlanc was not quite as effective on the road last year where he had a 1.24 WHIP with a .255 opponent’s batting average as opposed to his 1.12 WHIP and .247 opponent’s batting average at home. LeBlanc has struggled under the lights this year with a 6.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .284 opponent’s batting average in three starts/four appearances at night. Bautista and then LeBlanc will be facing an A’s team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Seattle bullpen will not offer much support either was LeBlanc is pulled. The Mariners’ pen has a 6.32 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP on the road — and they have a 7.63 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in their last seven games. Oakland has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. The A’s have also played 18 of their last 26 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9 to 9.5 range. Oakland has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against AL West foes. They counter with Montas who is 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirteen starts. The 26-year old is enjoying a breakout season — but the sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.78 and 3.55 respectively moving forward based off his deeper peripheral numbers. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 3.54 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and .255 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 2.44 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where he had a 4.35 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and .291 opponent’s batting average at home as opposed to his 3.44 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .289 opponent’s batting average on the road. The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Montas pitching with the Total set at 9 to 9.5. Montas last pitched on June 9th — and Oakland has played 7 straight games Over the Total when he is starting with five days of rest. He faces a hot-hitting Mariners lineup that is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .265 batting average, .337 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .850 over that span. The Over is also 33-16-2 in Seattle’s last 51 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 10 of their last 14 contests Over the Total. Expect another higher scoring game between these two clubs. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (977) and the Oakland A’s (978) listing both starting pitchers Gerson Bautista and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-11-19 |
Blue Jays v. Orioles UNDER 9 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (961) and the Baltimore Orioles (962) listing both starting pitchers Trent Thornton and John Means. THE SITUATION: Toronto (23-42) begins this series having lost four straight games after their 8-2 loss on Sunday to Arizona. Baltimore (20-45) has lost four of their last five games with their 4-0 loss in Houston on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jays’ offense is struggling after getting shutout once and plating only four runners in their three-game series with the Diamondbacks over the weekend. They generated only one base-hit in their sixteen at-bats with Runners In Scoring Position over those three games — and they are hitting just .161 over their last 112 at-bats with RISP. Toronto goes on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number set at 9 to 9.5. The Blue Jays have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 range. Additionally, Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They give the ball to Thornton who is 1-4 with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in thirteen starts this season. The rookie is striking out 24.8% of the batters he has faced — and he is averaging a robust 9.8 batters per 9 innings of work. Walks have been his biggest weakness — but the right-hander has been much better on the road where he has a 3.21 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in six starts as compared to his 6.39 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .272 opponent’s batting average in seven starts at home. The Blue Jays have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Thornton on the hill. Thornton should pitch well against this Orioles lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting .217 over that span with a .264 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .638. Baltimore has played 4 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Baltimore has played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Orioles have played five straight games where neither team scored more than four runs — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where neither team scored more than four runs. Baltimore returns home to Charm City where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. The Orioles have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They counter with Means who is 5-4 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.07 WHP in ten starts (fourteen appearances). The right-hander has maintained a 2.77 ERA in his last ten appearances since April 14th. The left-hander has been remarkably consistent as he has not allowed more than three earned runs in nine of his ten starts including his last six starts. Means has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.53 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .173 in five starts (seven appearances) as compared to his 3.73 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Orioles have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Means on the mound — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with Means pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces a Blue Jays team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over that span with a .214 batting average, .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .642 over that span. The Under is 3-1-1 in Toronto’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 35-15-1 in their last 51 meetings — and this includes the Under going 14-6-1 in the last 21 contests between these AL East rivals when playing in Camden Yards. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (961) and the Baltimore Orioles (962) listing both starting pitchers Trent Thornton and John Means. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-19 |
Angels v. Mariners OVER 9.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-103 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (923) and the Seattle Mariners (924) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Mike Leake. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (27-29) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 9-3 score. Seattle (24-35) has lost three straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Angels have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. The Angels have played 5 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Skaggs who is 4-4 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in nine starts. The left-hander does his best pitching at home where he sports a 2.28 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .209 — but he sees those numbers rise to a 6.56 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in five starts. He will be supported by a bullpen that has been rocked with a 5.25 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP over their last seven games. Los Angeles has played 5 straight games Over the Total with Skaggs facing the Mariners — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Skaggs facing this team in Seattle. Skaggs faces a Mariners team that has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Seattle has also seen the Over go 19-6-2 in their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is 29-14-1 in the Mariners’ last 44 games against an opponent that scored at least five runs in their last game. Seattle has also played 31 of their last 43 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Additionally, the Over is 12-3-1 in the Mariners’ last 16 games at home — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Over is 15-5-1 in Seattle’s last 21 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Leake who is 3-6 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 1.44 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .300 in four starts at T-Mobile Park as opposed to his 1.36 WHIP and .278 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Leake had a 4.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .287 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .274 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Leake facing a team with a losing record. Seattle has also played 5 straight games Over the Total with Leake facing the Angels. Leake will be supported by a tired bullpen that has logged in 9 2/3 innings of work over their last two games. The Mariners have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 innings over their last two games. This bullpen has a 4.86 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP when pitching at home. The Angels are scoring a robust 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .820 over that span. Additionally, LA has played 5 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home by at least six runs. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total. 25* MLB Bailout Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (923) and the Seattle Mariners (924) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Mike Leake. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-19 |
Indians v. White Sox UNDER 10 |
Top |
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Dylan Covey. THE SITUATION: Chicago (26-29) ha won four straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 10-4 score. Cleveland (28-27) has lost four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Indians have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss. Cleveland has now played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Bauer who is 4-4 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.40 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in six starts. The Under is a decisive 45-11-7 in the Indians’ last 63 road games with Bauer on the hill. The Under is also 3-0-1 in Cleveland’s last 4 road games in Chicago facing the White Sox. Bauer will be supported by an elite Indians’ bullpen that has a 3.15 ERA on the road with a 1.21 WHIP. Bauer faces a White Sox lineup that is scoring only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers this season while posting a .249 batting average along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .694 in those games. Chicago has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 15-7-1 in the White Sox’s last 23 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by at least six runs over an AL Central rival. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 7 Games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played a decisive 38 of their last 55 games Over the Total after scoring at least 8 runs in their last contest. The White Sox have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Covey who is 0-4 with a 5.47 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in five starts and seven appearances this season. The right-hander has been effective when pitching at home where he sees is ERA and WHIP plummet to 2.61 and 1.16 marks — and his opponents are hitting just .189 when he pitching at home in Guaranteed Rate Field. Chicago has played 5 straight games Under the Total with Covey pitching on four days of rest between starts — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Covey making the start against the Indians. Covey’s bullpen enters this game with a 2.37 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP in night games this season. Cleveland is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .224 batting average along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .668. The Indians have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With Bauer struggling this month and bettors not giving much respect to Covey, the Total has been set in the 10 range for this contest. Bauer has allowed at least four runs in his last three starts — but all those efforts were at home where he has a history of not always being as effective. Bauer has still amassed 88 strikeouts in 76 innings of work — and he is facing a White Sox team that strikes out 30% of the time against elite starting pitchers like Bauer with similar profiles. Covey is not a strikeout pitcher and gets into trouble when issuing too many bases-on-balls — but the ground ball pitcher has better control when pitching at home. 10s or higher is too high for this matchup especially with two of the weaker lineups in the league. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL Central Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Dylan Covey. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-19 |
Pirates v. Reds OVER 10 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 12:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (901) and the Cincinnati Reds (902) listing both starting pitchers Steven Brault and Anthony DeSclafani. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (26-29) has won three of their last four games after winning the third game of this series last night by an 11-6 score. Pittsburgh (26-27) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests. The Reds host this Getaway Game this afternoon to close out this four-game series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have played 7 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and the Over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Pittsburgh has also seen the Over go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And the Over is now 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road. They give the ball to Brault who will serve as the opener this afternoon with his 1-1 record along with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP in 25 1/3 innings of work. The left-hander has been even less effective on the road where he has a 9.00 ERA with 2.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .353 in 12 innings — and he has an 11.88 ERA with a 2.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .378 during the day this season. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Pirates’ last 4 road games with Brault on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Reds lineup that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .340 batting average along with a .399 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .988 over that span. The Over is also 3-0-1 in Cincy’s last 4 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Pirates’ bullpen will be called on to log in plenty of innings after Brault this afternoon — but that group has an ERA of 5.85 over their last seven games with a WHIP of 1.67. Cincinnati has played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Reds have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with DeSclafani who is 2-2- with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.68 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP in four starts as compared to his 4.55 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP on the road. Tony Disco had a 5.02 ERA at home in the Great American Ballpark last year as competed to his more modest 4.78 ERA when on the road. The Over is 4-0-2 in Cincinnati’s last 6 home games with DeSclafani on the hill — and the Reds have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with him facing the Pirates. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 6.58 ERA over their last seven games. Pittsburgh is also swinging hot bats as they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .292 batting average with a .332 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .820. The Pirates have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 meetings. Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams in this afternoon Getaway Game. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (901) and the Cincinnati Reds (902) listing both starting pitchers Steven Brault and Anthony DeSclafani. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-28-19 |
Mets v. Dodgers OVER 8 |
Top |
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (36-18) won the opening game of this series last night by a 9-5 score over New York (26-27).
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets bullpen surrendered seven runs in their last loss yesterday on Memorial Day. New York has then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by at least four runs — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed at least four runs. Furthermore, the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Mets have played 18 of their last 20 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. They give the ball to Matz who is 3-3 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bearish on the left-handed knuckleballer with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.06 and 4.00 moving forward. Matz has been very good at home where he owns a 1.50 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 — but those numbers rise to a 6.10 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in five starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Matz had a 3.59 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 at home but a 4.46 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 5-2-1 in New York’s last 8 road games with Matz facing a team with a winning record. The Over is also 9-2-1 in the Mets’ last 12 games when Matz is pitching on four days rest. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .306 batting average along with a .392 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .898 over that span. Los Angeles is also scoring a healthy 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .277 batting average, .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .837. The Dodgers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Los Angeles has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers banged out 17 hits yesterday — and they have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after producing at least 17 hits in their last game. They counter with Hill who is 1-1 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in five starts. The sabermetrics suggest he is overachieving as his SIERA and xFIP project a rise in his ERA to 3.28 and 3.29 respectively based on his peripheral numbers. The left-hander has not been as effective at home either where he has a 3.27 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in two starts. Last year, Hill had a 3.69 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 at home with all those numbers improving to a 3.63 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .193 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. Los Angeles has played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total with Hill pitching on the road. And while Hill comes off a nice outing where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work at Tampa Bay, the Over is 16-4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 21 games with Hill following up a Quality Start. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .260 batting average, .314 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .822 in those games. New York has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 7 of their last 8 meetings in Los Angeles Over the Total. Expect another high-scoring game. 25* Major League Baseball Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-26-19 |
Yankees v. Royals OVER 9 |
Top |
7-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Kansas City Royals (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Danny Duffy. THE SITUATION: New York (34-17) has won seven straight games in a row after sweeping yesterday’s double-header — winning Game One by a 7-3 score before winning the nightcap by a 6-5 score. Kansas City (17-34) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win on the road. New York has seen the Over go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Yankees have now seen the Over go 33-11-3 in their last 47 games on the road — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Additionally, New York has played 10 straight games Over the Total on the road as a favorite priced at -125 or higher. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total in the third game of a series. They give the ball to German who is 9-1 with a 2.60 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.91 and 3.82 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road either as he has a 1.69 ERA with a .177 opponent’s batting average at home but a 3.45 ERA with a .193 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where German had a 5.20 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average at home with all those numbers rising to a 5.98 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 6-0-1 in New York’s last 7 games on the road with German on the hill. And while the Yankees’ bullpen has pitched 14 innings over their last three games, New York has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after their bullpen has pitched at least 13 combined innings over their last three games. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Royals’ last 4 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City has seen the Over go 21-10-3 in their last 34 games after a loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by just one run. Additionally, the Over is 12-5-3 in the Royals’ last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog priced at least at +150. Furthermore, the Over is 3-1-1 in Kansas City’s last 5 games at home — and the Over is 15-5-2 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Duffy who is 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in five starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.88 and 4.25 moving forward. The left-hander has been less effective at home as well where he owns a 4.50 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in three starts as compared to his 2.13 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average of .239 on the road. Duffy struggled at home last year as well where he was saddled with a 6.31 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .276 opponent’s batting average of .276 as compared to his 3.94 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average at home. The Royals have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Duffy on the hill. And while he comes off a strong effort where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work in Los Angeles against the Angels, KC has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when Duffy is pitching after an outing where he did not allow more than one earned run. He faces the Bronx Bombers’ offensive juggernaut that is scoring 8.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with .301 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .951 over that span. The Yankees are scoring 6.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-0-1 in New York’s last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams when playing in Kansas City. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Kansas City Royals (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Danny Duffy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-19-19 |
Cubs v. Nationals OVER 9.5 |
Top |
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday. we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (913) and the Washington Nationals (914) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Jeremy Hellickson. THE SITUATION: Washington (18-26) has won three of the last four games after winning the second game of this series last night by a 5-2 score. Chicago (26-16) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have seen the Over go 15-7-1 in their last 23 third games of a series. The Over is a decisive 30-14-3 in their last 47 games at home — and the Over is also 10-3-1 in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Washington has also played 36 of their last 57 home games Over the Total when playing at night. They give the ball to Hellickson who is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home where he sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 8.04 and 1.79 marks — and his opponents are hitting .299 when he is pitching in Washington. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Hellickson had a 4.50 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .260 at home as compared to his 3.03 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .218 opponent’s batting average when he was pitching on the road. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 home games with Hellickson on the hill — and Washington has played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Hellickson pitching when priced in the +/- 125 range. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .274 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .833. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the Cubs have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road with the number set in that 8.5 to 10 range. They counter with Hendricks who is 3-4 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in eight starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not nearly as encouraging as those frontline numbers with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.13 and 3.86 respectively moving forward. And while the right-hander has been outstanding at home in Wrigley Field where he has a 0.62 ERA with a 0.72 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .180, those numbers skyrocket to a 5.91 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .330 on the road in four starts.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing in Washington. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (913) and the Washington Nationals (914) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Jeremy Hellickson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-13-19 |
Brewers v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Loss |
-112 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (24-18) has lost two straight games after their 4-1 loss in Chicago last night against the Cubs. Philadelphia (23-16) has won two straight games with their 6-1 victory in Kansas City yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 11 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Philadelphia has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least two runs in their last game. They give the ball to Nola who is 3-0 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home this season given his 3.77 ERA in five starts. Nola had a 2.34 ERA at home last year. After a slow start, Nola has looked like the pitcher who concluded the year with a 2.37 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP in thirty-three starts. Over his last four starts, Nola has a 2.25 ERA while striking out 26 batters in 24 innings of work over that span. The Phillies have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total with Nola pitching as a favorite priced at least at -150. The Under is also 18-5-2 in Philadelphia’s last 25 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. He faces a Brewers team that is hitting just .218 on the road with a .300 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .666 — and their slugger, Ryan Braun, is questionable tonight with a hamstring injury. Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss. The Brewers gave up more than three runs for the first time in nine games last night — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight games. And while Milwaukee’s bullpen has thrown 13 1/3 innings over their last three games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after their pen combined to throw at least 13 innings in their last three games. The Brewers stay on the road where they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total. Milwaukee has also played 27 of their last 35 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The counter with Peralta who is 2-1 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in six games. After Peralta was used after an opener in his last outing against Washington where he allowed only three hits and no runs in 5 innings of work, manager Craig Counsell will have him start in the first inning tonight. He has been better on the road where he has a 0.97 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average. The Brewers have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Peralta pitching as a money-line underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. The Under is 15-5-1 in the Phillies’ last 21 games when facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Under is also 13-3-1 in Philadelphia’s last 17games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is hitting only .225 over their last seven games with a .312 On-Batting Average and an OPS of .638 over that span. Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams. 25* MLB Monday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-26-19 |
Rockies v. Braves UNDER 9 |
Top |
8-4 |
Loss |
-113 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
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At 7:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Max Fried. THE SITUATION: Colorado (11-14) enters this series having won eight of their last ten games with their 9-1 victory over Washington on Wednesday. Atlanta (12-11) has lost two of their last three games after a 4-2 loss at Cincinnati yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockies have played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Under is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after an off day. Now this team goes on the road where the Under is 22-6-3 in their last 31 games. They give the ball to Senzatela who is 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in two starts this season — and he has pitched at least 6 innings in both those starts. The 24-year old right-hander was 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP last season — but he was more effective away from Coors Field where he saw his ERA and WHIP drop to 4.01 and 1.11 marks while posting an impressive .220 opponent’s batting average. In his one start on the road this year, Senzatela allowed only 1 earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work at San Diego. Colorado has played 8 straight road games Under the Total with Senzatela on the hill. He faces a Braves team that has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss. Now the Braves return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Atlanta has also played 24 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Fried who has been outstanding so far this season with a 3-0 record along with a 1.38 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in four starts. Two of those starts were at home where he sported a 0.75 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .186 as compared to his 1.29 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average when on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where the left-hander had a 2.40 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in 15 innings at home as compared to his 3.38 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in 18 2/3 innings on the road. I pay close attention to sample sizes — but I feel comfortable with Fried’s career 2.80 ERA along with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in 34 2/3 innings of work when pitching at his Sun Trust Field in Atlanta. Fried faces a Rockies team that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .199 batting average along with a .242 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .558 this year. The Under is 40-19-2 in Colorado’s last 61 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 19-7-2 in their last 28 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockies are looking to avenge a 7-1 loss at home as a small money-line favorite against the Braves back on April 9th. Colorado has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss at home. Lastly, these two teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in Atlanta Under the Total. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Max Fried. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-21-19 |
Braves v. Indians OVER 8 |
Top |
11-5 |
Win
|
101 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (929) and the Cleveland Indians (930) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (10-10) snapped a four-game losing streak yesterday by defeating Cleveland (12-8) by an 8-7 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a win. The Atlanta bullpen has been busy as of late as they have pitched 15 combined innings over their last three games — and they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after pitching at least 13 combined innings over their last three games. They send out Fried who is 2-0 with an 0.92 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP so far this season. While those numbers look great, the fact that the left-hander is striking out only 5.5 batters per 9 innings of work is of concern. Both his SIERA and xFIP project significant regression with those numbers projecting an ERA of 4.15 and 3.80 moving forward. Fried was more effective at home last year where he had a 2.40 ERA with a 1.287 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 — but those numbers rose to a 3.38 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .242 when pitching on the road. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Fried on the hill. Atlanta has also played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Over is 22-7-2 in the Braves’ last 31 games against teams with a winning record. Fried faces an Indians team that scores 5.0 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they are scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Cleveland (12-8) has played 4 of their last 5 games in Interleague play Over the Total. The Indians’ bullpen has been roughed up as of late after they blew the save yesterday by surrendering 6 runs in 2 2/3 innings of work. Cleveland’s pen has an 8.25 ERA over their last five games — and they have lost 23 of their last 32 games when their bullpen has a 6.50 ERA or worse over their last five contests. They counter with Bieber who is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP so far this season. But his SIERA and xFIP project a decline in those numbers as they project an ERA of 3.78 and 3.99 respectively moving forward. Bieber was not as effective when pitching at home last year where he had a 5.88 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .328 as compared to his 3.56 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 when on the road. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Bieber on the bump after a game where they allowed at least five runs. Cleveland has also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They face a hot Braves lineup that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last five games with a .261 batting average along with an On-Base Percentage of .353 and an OPS of .819. Atlanta also scores 5.4 Runs-Per-Game when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 15-3-4 in the Indians’ last 22 home games when facing left-handed starting pitchers. The sample size regarding the number of starts a pitcher has made with his team is an important factor before I feel comfortable investing in April baseball action. With both these pitchers with their same team from last year — and with both with a growing set of 2019 data that says they are overachieving relative to their frontline ERA and WHIP numbers — let’s attack this early season opportunity. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (929) and the Cleveland Indians (930) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Shane Bieber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-18 |
Red Sox v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-102 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: Boston (118-57) seized a 3-1 lead in the World Series last night with their come-from-behind 9-6 victory over the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have now played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. And while Boston has just a .219 batting average over their last five games in these playoffs, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a five-game span where they did not have better than a .225 batting average clip. This team is still scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs even after that recent slide. They give the ball to Price who was 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in thirty regular season starts. The left-hander was much better at home in Fenway Park where he had a 2.98 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 — but those numbers spike to a 4.31 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .249 when pitching on the road. Price also had a 3.89 ERA in his twenty-one regular season starts at night. Additionally, many of Price’s notorious struggles in the playoffs have been on the road given his career 6.02 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273. Los Angeles (100-78) had their bullpen surrender 8 runs in just three innings of work after that group logged-in eleven innings in Friday night’s 18 inning marathon. The Dodgers have played 22 of their last 36 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. Los Angeles has also now played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against American League teams with a winning record. They counter with their ace Kershaw who only pitched 4 innings while giving up 5 earned runs in his Game One start against the Red Sox in the World Series. The lefty has a 4.60 ERA in the playoffs in his career — and the Dodgers have played 7 of their last 11 games in the playoffs Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: With the Dodgers playing with desperation — but also a tired bullpen — expect another high-scoring game. Price is pitching on short rest — and the Boston bullpen will be looking forward to (at least) one day off tomorrow. 25* MLB Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-18 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 4 m |
Show
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At 8:09 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Boston Red Sox (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jun Ryu and David Price. THE SITUATION: Boston (116-56) won Game One of the World Series last night by an 8-4 score over the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have now won five straight games in these playoffs — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after winning at least five straight games. Boston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory. Additionally, the Over is 9-1-2 in their last 12 games home in Fenway Park — and they have also played 16 of their last 25 home games Over the Total when the Total is set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They turn to Price tonight who was outstanding last Thursday when he helped the Red Sox close out the ALCS in Houston by pitching six scoreless innings in the win. But while Price’s postseason struggles were perhaps a bit overblown, he still has underachieved in the playoffs when compared to his regular season performances given his 5.04 ERA in 85 2/3 innings of work which includes a 5.11 ERA this postseason even after last Friday’s strong effort. Price had a 3.58 ERA in thirty regular season starts but he did see his ERA rise to a 3.90 mark in his twenty-one starts at night. Boston has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total with Price pitching after a start where he did not allow more than one earned run — and they have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with Price following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. He faces this Dodgers’ team that has now seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles (99-76) has also now played 7 of their last road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Over is also 5-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 7 games in Interleague play. And in their last 16 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range, Los Angeles has played 11 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Ryu who was 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in fifteen regular season starts. But the left-hander was not nearly as effective on the road where he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.58 and 1.23 marks. Ryu was hit hard for seven hits and five earned runs in his last start which was in Milwaukee last Friday where he did only pitch 3 innings. He faces this Red Sox team tonight that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and this is Ryu’s first ever start in Fenway Park with its menacing Green Monster an inviting target for right-handed batters. The Over is 8-1-2 in Boston’s last 11 home games in their last 11 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is also 34-16-2 in their last games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers will be playing with desperation in this game after losing last night and not wanting to return to LA down 0-2 in this series. The Total was a run lower at 7.5 yesterday with the Clayton Kershaw-Chris Sale showdown — yet expect another higher-scoring game between these two left-handed starting pitchers in Fenway Park. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Boston Red Sox (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jun Ryu and David Price. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-17-18 |
Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 |
Top |
8-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
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At 8:39 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: Boston (112-56) took a 2-1 lead in this series last night with their 5-2 victory over the Astros in the American League Championship Series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Houston (107-60) has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a loss by at least four runs — and they have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after a loss by at least six runs. Additionally, the Astros have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by at least six runs. Houston has now seen the Over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games at home — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total at home when priced as a favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. Furthermore, the Over is 14-2-1 in the Astros’ last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They give the ball to Morton who is 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander does see his ERA rise to a 3.21 mark in his sixteen starts at home. Morton has a 4.03 ERA in his six appearances in the playoffs in his career which includes five starts. Morton has struggled against the Red Sox this season with a 6.97 ERA with a 1.84 WHIP in 10 1/3 innings of work. He faces a Boston team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in these playoffs — and they played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a victory — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Boston has scored fifteen runs in the last two games — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total after scoring at least seven runs in two straight games. The Red Sox have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They counter with Porcello who is 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander is not as effective on the road where he has a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in eighteen starts as compared to his 1.07 WHIP and .226 opponent’s batting average at home. Porcello also has a 4.64 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP in his twenty-six starts at night. He did allow only one earned run in 5 innings of work in his last start against the Yankees in Game Four of the ALDS — but Boston has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total when he is following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. He faces an Astros team that is scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs with a .262 batting average along with a .367 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .824. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: This is a must-win game for the Astros against this Red Sox team playing with proverbial house money with their opportunity to seize a 3-1 lead in this series with two potential games still to be played back home at Fenway Park. That is a recipe for a high-scoring game. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-15-18 |
Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
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At 7:39 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-3) evened this series at 1-1 on Saturday with their 4-4 victory over the Brewers in the second game of the National League Championship Series. This series moves to Los Angeles for the next three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after a victory by two runs or less. Now they return home to Los Angeles for the first time since October 5th — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Under is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Buehler who is 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.12 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .184 in eleven starts (twelve appearances). The Under is 10-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 12 home games with Buehler on the hill. He will be supported by a hot bullpen that has a 1.99 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP over their last seven games. Milwaukee (100-68) has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have now played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Brewers have played 39 of their last 58 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. They counter with Chacin who is 15-8 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-four starts. The right-hander has been better on the road this year where he sees his ERA and WHIP drop to 3.41 and 1.10 marks along with an opponent’s batting average of .211. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Chacin on the hill. Chacin will be supported the outstanding Brewers bullpen that has a 2.73 ERA along with a 1.09 WHIP over their last seven games — even after their pen allowed the four runs that cost them Game Two. Manager Craig Counsel will have Josh Hader available to pitch in this game after he logged in three scoreless in their opening game win in this series. The fireballing left-hander has not allowed an earned run in his last five appearances spanning 7 1/3 innings of work where he allowed only three hits and no walks while striking out eleven batters.
FINAL TAKE: To accommodate the prime-time programming for the east coast, this game will be played in the late afternoon in Los Angeles — and that means shadows which can challenge the sight-lines for the batters. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. Expect another low-scoring game. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-09-18 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
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At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and C.C. Sabathia. THE SITUATION: Boston (110-55) seized a 2-1 lead in this ALDS last night with their 16-1 beatdown against the Yankees. The Red Sox have the opportunity to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a victory — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a blowout win of at least ten rounds. Furthermore, Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They give the ball to Porcello who is 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 1.27 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .253 in eighteen starts as compared to his 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 at home. Porcello also tends to struggle in night games where he has a 4.64 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The Red Sox have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total with Porcello pitching after a victory on their last game. He faces a Yankees team that has played 7 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. New York (102-64) has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. The Yankees have also played 19 of their last 28 home games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total. Aaron Boone has issues with his bullpen after the logged in 6 innings last night after he used his bullpen for 4 innings in each of the first two games of this series. New York has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen pitched at least 6 innings — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after having their bullpen pitch at least 4 innings in three straight games. They counter with Sabathia who is 9-7 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The Yankees have played 5 straight games Over the Total when Sabathia is pitching after a game where they allowed at least five runs. He faces a hot-hitting Red Sox lineup that is scoring 8.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .301 batting average along with a .384 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .897 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 encounters in Yankee Stadium Over the Total. With the Bronx Bombers facing the possible end of their season tonight, expect another high-scoring game. 25* MLB Red Sox-Yankees’ O/U A-List Special with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and C.C. Sabathia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-08-18 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 |
Top |
16-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
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At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: New York (102-65) evened this series at 1-1 on Saturday with their 6-2 victory over the Red Sox in Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win by at least four runs. New York has also played 6 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 9 straight games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against fellow AL East opponents. They give the ball to Severino who is 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in thirty-two starts this season. The right-hander did not allow an earned run when he pitched the first 4 innings of the Yanks’ AL Wild Card playoff game against the A’s — but New York has played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total when Severino comes off a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. The Over is also 18-7-1 in the Yankees’ last 26 home games with Severino on the hill — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Severino facing the Red Sox. Boston (109-55) is still scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .282 batting average along with a .362 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .862 over that span. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 4 games after a loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Over is also 18-6-2 in Boston’s last 26 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after an off-day. Furthermore, the Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Eovaldi who is 6-7 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander sees his ERA skyrocket to a 5.14 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in thirteen road starts. Eovaldi also has a 5.11 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 at night. The Over is 4-1-1 in Boston’s last 6 games with Eovaldi facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Bronx Bombers team that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting a .274 batting average with a .350 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .866 during that span. The Yankees have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a high-scoring game between these two teams in a pivotal third game of this American League Divisional Series. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-08-18 |
Astros v. Indians OVER 8.5 |
Top |
11-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
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At 1:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Houston (105-59) has taken a 2-0 lead in this ALDS with their 3-1 victory over the Indians in the second game of this series on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Indians return home for the first time since September 23rd in this must-win elimination game. Cleveland has seen the Over go 4-0-2 in their last 6 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Indians have also played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Additionally, the Over is 8-3-2 in Cleveland’s last 13 games after a loss — and the Over is 6-2-2 in their last 10 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They give the ball to Clevinger who is 13-8 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.14 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in seventeen starts. The Indians have seen the Over go 10-4-2 in their last 16 home games with Clevinger on the hill. The Cleveland bullpen is struggling as of late as well. Over their last five games, the Indians’ bullpen has an ERA of 8.82 — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of at least 6.50 over their last five games. Houston (105-59) has played 14 of their last 18 playoff games Over the Total in the ALDS. The Astros have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Keuchel who is 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in thirty-four starts. The lefty has not been as effective on the road where he sees his WHIP rise to a 1.34 mark with a .273 opponent’s batting average in eighteen starts as compared to his 1.29 WHIP with a .253 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The Over is 3-1-2 in Houston’s last 6 road games with Keuchel on the hill. He faces an Indians team that has seen the Over go 12-3-4 in their last 19 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be playing with a sense of desperation with their season on the line. Expect a higher-scoring game. 25* MLB American League Divisional Series Playoff Total with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-07-18 |
Dodgers v. Braves OVER 7.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
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At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Sean Newcomb. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (94-71) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Friday with their 3-0 victory over the Braves in the second game of this NLDS.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have surrendered a run so far in this series — but that will likely change with this game being played back in Atlanta. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 12 games after not shutting out their last opponent — and they have played 4 straight Overs after shutting out their opponents in two straight games. The Dodgers have only given up two combined runs in their last four games — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in four straight games. They give the ball to Buehler who is 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The right-hander has not been as effective when on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.45 mark along with a 1.12 WHIP. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with Buehler pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a Braves team that has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta (90-74) has played 24 of their last 35 home games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one run. The Braves have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after being shutout in two straight games. Atlanta has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an off-day. They return home for the first time since September 23rd — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total after being on the road for at least seven days. The Braves have played 6 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 18 games in the playoffs, Atlanta has seen 13 of these contests finish Over the Total. They counter with Newcomb who is 12-9 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in thirty-one starts. The left-hander has struggled at home where his ERA rises to a 5.12 mark with a 1.44 WHIP in fourteen starts. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Newcomb facing a team with a winning record. It is not likely he will get bailed out by the Atlanta bullpen as they have a 4.24 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP in their last seven games. The Dodgers are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over the last seven games with a .293 batting average along with a .367 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .904 over that span. LA has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 7-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Under might be tempting after the Braves failed to score in these first two games but expect this to be the highest-scoring game in this series. 25* MLB National League Divisional Series Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Sean Newcomb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-04-18 |
Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
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At 8:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (903) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (904) listing both starting pitchers Mike Foltynewicz and Hyun-Jin Ryu. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (90-72) enters the postseason having lost four of their last five games after their 3-1 loss in Philadelphia on Sunday. Los Angeles (92-71) has won four straight games after they won their 163rd game tie-breaker on Monday with their 5-2 win over Colorado.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Atlanta has played 19 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than three runs in their last game. The Braves have only scored one run in their last two games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than one run in two straight games. But Atlanta has not allowed more than four runs in their last eight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight games. Additionally, the Braves have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set no higher than 7 — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Foltynewicz who is 13-10 with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in thirty-one starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sees his ERA drop to a 2.48 mark. Atlanta has played 3 straight road games Under the Total with Foltynewicz pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They face a Dodgers team that they defeated back in Atlanta by a 4-1 score as a money-line underdog in their last meeting back on July 29th. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when avenging a loss as a road favorite. The Under is 11-5-1 in the Dodgers’ last 17 games after an off-day. The Under is also 17-5-1 in LA’s last 23 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 playoff games at home. They counter with Ryu who is 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in fifteen starts this season. After coming back from an injury this summer, the left-hander sported a 1.88 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .156. In his nine starts at home, Ryu has a nearly unhittable 1.15 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .212. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Ryu facing a team with a winning record. He faces this slumping Braves lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .205 batting average along with a .260 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .548 during the span. Atlanta has played 4 straight road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: I suspect Atlanta will struggle to score in their first postseason game with their new generation of players. And don’t underestimate the impact of the sun setting in LA which notoriously places shadows on the field for the first-half of these late afternoon west coast games. 25* MLB Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (903) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (904) listing both starting pitchers Mike Foltynewicz and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-03-18 |
A's v. Yankees OVER 8 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (939) and the New York Yankees (940) (do not list the starting pitchers — I will explain below). THE SITUATION: Oakland (97-65) begins the postseason coming off a 5-4 loss in Los Angeles to the Angels on Sunday. New York (100-62) looks to rebound from a 10-2 loss in Boston on Sunday to close out their regular season. It will all be on the line for both teams in this single-elimination showdown of the American League Wildcard Playoffs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Now this team stays on the road where the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games — and the Over is 6-2-1 in Oakland’s last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The A’s have also played 4 straight road games Over the Total when playing in the playoffs. Manager Bob Melvin has decided to rely on his bullpen for this single elimination with Liam Hendriks pitching the opening inning. The right-hander has a 2.08 ERA in his eight starts in these bullpen games this season — but that spans only 8 2/3 innings of work. Don’t let those nice numbers derived from a staggeringly low sample size fool you: Melvin is resorting to his bullpen because he lacks credible options for a traditional starting pitcher. Injuries have devastated what was never an above average group even at full strength. This is a strategy of last resort. Hendriks has a road ERA of 7.45 with a 1.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .325 — albeit in just 9 2/3 innings of work. The sample size for Hendriks’ road appearances this season should also be taken with a grain of a salt — but it is not an encouraging set of circumstances that the Oakland’s A’s first inning pitcher has yet to pitch even 10 innings in a hostile environment this season. Hendriks has pitched 178 2/3 innings on the road in his career; he has an ugly 6.45 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .336 over that span. Granted, the A’s have a good bullpen — but Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total this season with Hendriks making the start where he does not complete at least 4 innings of work. And while Melvin has the benefit of using his starting pitchers in pen as well, his choices are not particularly attractive which is why he is in this predicament, to begin with (and he even left starter Mike Fiers off the roster). The A’s bullpen has pitched a combined 20 innings over their last three games — and they have played 29 of their last 48 games Over the Total when their bullpen has logged-in at least 13 innings over their last three starts. These pitchers will be facing a Yankees team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .278 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .882. New York returns home to Yankee Stadium for the first time since September 23rd — and they have seen the Over go 12-4-1 in their last 17 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Bronx Bombers have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Severino who is 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in thirty-two starts. Severino has struggled since the All-Star Break as he has been saddled with a 5.57 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .341 in twelve starts. A loss of some of the bite on his fastball has made the effectiveness of his cutter decline. The right-hander has been better as of late by not allowing more than two earned runs in three straight starts. But the Yankees have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total with Severino pitching after not allowing more than two earned runs in two straight starts. New York has also played 6 straight home games Over the Total with Severino on the hill. Remember that Severino got shelled for three runs in just 1/2 innings of work when he started at home against the Twins in last year’s AL Wildcard Playoff game. He is facing a feisty A’s team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while also scoring 5.5 Runs-Per-Game on the road. Furthermore, Oakland has played 5 straight road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 44-19-4 in their last 67 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less.
FINAL TAKE: While the first three postseason games have been low-scoring contests, expect this contest to be the highest-scoring playoff game we have witnessed so far in this nascent postseason. Do not list Hendricks nor Severino as the necessary starting pitchers as a condition for your wager either. While I identified some negative data on Liam Hendriks, we are not relying on his 1 inning of work as a primary argument for this play. Even if there is only a small chance that the A’s make a change to another starting pitcher for this game, Hendriks’ absence does not change our Over play. 25* MLB Playoff Wildcard Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (939) and the New York Yankees (940) (not listing the starting pitchers as a condition for this wager). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-18 |
Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7 |
Top |
2-5 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 4:09 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: These two teams need a 163rd game to determine the winner of the National League West. Colorado (91-71) has won nine of their last ten games after they ripped Washington by a 12-0 score yesterday. Los Angeles (91-71) has won six of their last eight contests with their 15-0 victory in San Francisco yesterday. The loser of this game goes on the road in the National League Wildcard game tomorrow while the winner will host Atlanta in a National League Divisional Series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles is swinging hot bats right now — over their last seven games, they are scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .327 batting average along with a .397 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .939 over that span. The Dodgers have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run against an NL West rival in their last game — and the Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after not allowing more that two runs in their last contest. The Over is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a victory — and Los Angeles has played 26 of their last 38 games Over the Total after a victory by at least four runs. And in their last 19 games after scoring at least nine runs, the Dodgers have played 14 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Buehler who is 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The rookie has been outstanding as of late with a 1.70 ERA over his last eleven starts which helps explain why this Total is set at a low 7 — but Buehler has not been nearly as effective during day games. While Buehler has a 2.13 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .187 in seventeen starts at night, those numbers rise to a 4.91 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .234 in his six appearances in day games. He faces a hot-hitting Rockies team that is scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .322 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 1.043 in those games. Colorado has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 3-0-1 in the Rockies’ last 4 games in the playoffs. They counter with Marquez who is 14-10 with a 3.76 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in thirty-two starts. Like Buehler, the right-hander has not been as effective during games where he has a 5.16 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in eleven day starts as compared to his 3.11 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .228 during night games. Colorado has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Marquez pitching as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Rockies’ bullpen might be a weak-link for them as they have a rough 4.63 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP this season.
FINAL TAKE: While both teams will move to another playoff game after this one, there is still plenty at stake since the winner will have a much more favorable positioning in the playoffs moving forward. Both these starting pitchers may have been pitching great down the stretch but both will also be making their playoff debuts with their starts — so nerves may be an issue for at least one of them. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-18 |
Braves v. Giants UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the San Francisco Giants (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Derek Holland. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (81-64) has won four straight games after they won Game Two of their series with the Giants last night by a 4-1 score for the second straight day.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Atlanta has also seen the Under go 10-4-1 in their last 15 games on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Sanchez who is 6-5 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.07 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in eleven starts. Sanchez is also better during day games where he sports a 2.16 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .157 in six starts. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Sanchez facing a team with a losing record. He should thrive against this Giants team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .220 batting average along with a .255 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .622 during that span. San Francisco (68-78) has played 4 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 10 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Giants have lost nine straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss. Additionally, the Under is 7-1-1 in the Giants’ last 8 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. San Fran has also played 8 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Holland who is 7-8 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in thirty-one starts this year. The left-hander has been a bit better at home where he owns a 1.17 WHIP in fourteen starts. The Giants have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home with Holland on the hill. Together, these team trends produce our specific 72-12-3 combined angle for this situation. Holland has also been more effective on day games where he has a 2.54 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in eleven stats.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams for this afternoon getaway game. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the San Francisco Giants (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Derek Holland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-18 |
Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 9 |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-120 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (977) and the Boston Red Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Rick Porcello. THE SITUATION: Houston (89-53) has won seven straight games after winning the second game of this series last night by a 5-3 score against the Red Sox.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while Houston has not allowed more than three runs in eight straight games, they have then played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three runs in at least four straight games. Furthermore, the Astros have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They give the ball to Keuchel who is 11-10 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he sees his ERA drop to a 3.27 mark. Houston has played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with Keuchel pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to -125 range. He faces a Red Sox team that is hitting only .249 over their last seven games with an OPS of .709 in those games with both stats far below their .268 batting average and .774 OPS for the season. Boston (97-46) has played 22 of their last 31 home games when playing with revenge from a loss in their last game with their opponents. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have also played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Porcello who is 16-7 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander should be seeing better results given his SIERA and xFIP that both project an ERA of 3.71 and 3.84 moving forward. Porcello has been more effective at home in Fenway Park where he has a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in twelve starts as compared to his 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 on the road. Boston has played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with Porcello facing a team with a winning record. He faces an Astros team that has seen the Under go 11-3-2 in their last 16 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Expect playoff intensity for this nationally-televised game — and that should translate into a low-scoring game with two good starting pitchers on the mound. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (977) and the Boston Red Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Rick Porcello. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-18 |
Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Mike Montgomery and Mike Foltynewicz. THE SITUATION: Chicago (78-54) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped last night with their 10-3 loss to the Mets yesterday. Atlanta (74-58) looks to rebound from an 8-5 loss to Tampa Bay yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Montgomery who is coming off the disabled list to return to their now six-man rotation. The left-hander has a 4-4 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 99 1/3 innings of work. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.96 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 54 2/3 innings of work both starting and out of the pen. Montgomery did not allow an earned run in his last start where he pitched 6 innings at Kansas City — and the Cubs have played 7 of their last 8 games when Montgomery registered a Quality Start in his last start on the mound. He faces a Braves team that has seen the Under go 16-4-1 in their last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Under is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta (74-58) has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves have also played 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Foltynewicz who is 10-8 with a 2.67 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.63 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in twelve home starts. The Under is 3-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 home games with Foltynewicz on the hill. He faces a Cubs team that has played 8 straight road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Lastly, these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total when playing in Atlanta.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams that are in the heat of the National League playoff race. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Mike Montgomery and Mike Foltynewicz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-18 |
Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 12:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (951) and the Cincinnati Reds (952) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Cody Reed. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (73-60) outlasted the Reds in the second game of this series by a 13-12 score in 10 innings last night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers have now played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total in the month of August — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NL Central opponents. Additionally, the Over is 6-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 8 road games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Miley who is 2-2 with a 2.32 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in ten starts. The sabermetrics are screaming out for regression for this left-hander as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.97 and 4.56 moving forward this season. The Brewers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Miley making the start. He faces a Reds team that has played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Cincinnati (57-75) has also seen the Over go 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 20-7-2 in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 52 day games, the Reds have played 31 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Reed who is 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings of work since being called up from Triple-A earlier this month. Reed has logged-in 80 innings at the major league level in his career where he has not been as effective at home. The left-hander has a 7.05 ERA with a 1.78 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .358 in 37 innings at home as compared to his 5.44 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP on the road. Furthermore, Reed has been rocked for a 9.39 ERA with a 2.05 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings during day games as compared to his 4.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP at night. Cincinnati has played 8 straight games Over the Total with Reed pitching as an underdog. He faces a hot-hitting Brewers team that was scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games before yesterday along with a .290 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .827. Lastly, Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: It should be another high-scoring affair between these two teams in this afternoon getaway game at the Great American Ballpark. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (951) and the Cincinnati Reds (952) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Cody Reed. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-28-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Clay Buchholz and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (66-67) has won three straight games with their 2-0 shutout win over the Diamondbacks in the opening game of this series last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 18-6-3 the Giants’ last 27 games after a victory. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Bumgarner who is 5-5 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has been outstanding once again at home this year where he owns a 1.71 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in seven starts. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Giants’ last 8 home games with Bumgarner on the hill — and they have played 7 straight Unders at home with Bumgarner facing the Diamondbacks. He should continue this success tonight when facing this Arizona team (72-58) that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 4 games after a loss. And while Arizona has lost three of their last four games, they have played 36 of their last 53 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. The Diamondbacks have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Buchholz who is 7-2 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander has been even more effective on the road where he sports a 1.97 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in eight starts. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Buchholz on the hill. He has benefited from a fairly easy stretch of opponents — and he will be facing a cold Giants team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .195 batting average along with a .259 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .591 over that span. Lastly, the Under is 22-10-1 in the last 33 meetings between these two teams in San Francisco.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a pitchers’ duel between these two teams facing slumping lineups. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Clay Buchholz and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-18 |
Braves v. Marlins UNDER 8 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Miami Marlins (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Wei-Yin Chen. THE SITUATION: Miami (52-78) rebounded from a 5-0 loss on Thursday to shutout the Braves on Friday with their 1-0 victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have now seen the Under go 8-2-2 in their last 12 games at home. Miami is a heavy underdog in this game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 home games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +150 to +200 price range. They give the ball to Chen who is 4-9 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty starts. But while the right-hander has been a disaster on the road where he has been saddled with a 9.34 ERA with a 1.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .335 in ten starts, he has been quite good at home where he sports a 2.05 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in ten starts at home. The Under is 8-2-1 in the Marlins’ last 11 home games with Chen on the hill. He faces a cold-hitting Braves team that went into Friday night scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .243 batting average over their last seven games along with a .315 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .664 over that span. Atlanta (77-56) has played 7 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Under is also 5-2-1 in the Braves’ last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has now played 15 of their last 23 games this month Under the Total. The Under is also now 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road. They counter with Sanchez who is 6-4 with a 3.13 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of 1.09 in seventeen starts. The veteran right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has an ERA of 3.06 with a 1.08 WHOP buoyed by an opponent’s batting average of .203. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Braves’ last 5 road games with Sanchez on the hill — and Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Sanchez pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -125 to -175 range. He faces a Marlins’ team that has seen the Under go 5-2-2 in their last 9 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Runs have been hard to come by in this series with just seven runs scored between these two teams in the first two games of this series. Expect another low-scoring game. 25* MLB FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Miami Marlins (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Wei-Yin Chen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-19-18 |
Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
8-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (913) and the Philadelphia Phillies (914) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. THE SITUATION: These two teams have split the first four games of this series after New York (53-69) defeated Philadelphia (68-55) yesterday by a 3-1 score. This series travels south to Williamsport, Pennsylvania for ESPN’s second annual Little League Classic to be played at Bowman Field (with Major League dimensions).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York had been on-fire with their bats just a few days ago — but, alas, they have already begun to cool off after scoring 16 runs on Wednesday before plating 24 runners in the opening game of this series on Thursday which was Game One of the double-header that day. The Mets have a .330 batting average over their last five games — but they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after hitting at least .315 over their last five games. This regression is already taking place as they have just a .202 On-Base Percentage over their last three games — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not having better than a .260 On-Base Percentage over their last three contests. Additionally, New York has played a decisive 51 of their last 83 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They give the ball to Vargas who has been a disappointment this year with a 2-8 record with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP in thirteen starts. But the right-hander has perhaps found his groove again after allowing only two runs in 6 innings of work in his last start against the Orioles. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 games with Vargas on the hill — and Vargas’ teams have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total with him making the start for a night game. Vargas faces a Phillies team that has seen the Under go 40-19-2 in their last 61 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. The Phillies have also played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a loss by no more than two runs. They counter with Pivetta who is 7-9 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. While the Mets are the technical home team, this is an unfamiliar environment for Pivetta — yet he pitched 6 scoreless innings in his last start away from Citi Field in Arizona. The Under is 8-1-2 in New York’s last 11 games with Pivetta pitching after a loss — and the Phillies have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total with Pivetta pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Lastly, in the last 12 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 9 times.
FINAL TAKE: The first Little League Classic was also played in Williamsburg last August with the Pirates defeating the Cardinals by a 6-3 score with Ivan Nova defeating Mike Leake. Expect this contest to see fewer runs. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (913) and the Philadelphia Phillies (914) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-18 |
Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the St. Louis Cardinals (912) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (68-55) has lost four of their last six games after their 8-4 loss in Chicago against the Cubs on Wednesday. St. Louis (66-56) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped won Wednesday with their 5-4 loss to Washington yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after an off-day — and the Over is 16-5-1 in their last 22 games when facing an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. Milwaukee has also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total. They give the ball to Peralta who is 5-3 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where his ERA rises to a 5.17 mark along with a 1.50 WHIP in seven starts. The Brewers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Peralta making the start. He faces a Cardinals team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .357 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .878. St. Louis has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs. The Cardinals have also played 18 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less. St. Louis has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Flaherty who is 6-6 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in nineteen starts. The rookie right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has an ERA of 3.53 with a 1.11 WHIP. The Cardinals have played 4 straight games Under the Total with Flaherty pitching with five days of rest. He also faces a hot-hitting team as the Brewers are scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .331 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .780.
FINAL TAKE: The number is generally at 8 in most locations for this game. Both with two lineups hitting the ball well facing young starting pitchers that have an ever-growing book being written on their strengths and weaknesses, expect a higher-scoring game. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the St. Louis Cardinals (912) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-15-18 |
Red Sox v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the Philadelphia Phillies (922) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Vincent Velasquez. THE SITUATION: Boston (86-35) has won eleven of their last twelve games with their 2-1 win over the Phillies yesterday in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 4 games after a victory — and the Under is 9-0-2 in their last 11 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in Boston’s last 4 games on the road. They give the ball to Eovaldi who is 5-4 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander looks to redeem himself from a terrible outing where he got rocked for eight runs (six earned) while surrendering a season-high 10 hits in an exasperating outing against the anemic Orioles. Eovaldi began the start with a microscopic 0.43 ERA along with a 0.67 WHIP in his three previous starts with the latter two being in a Red Sox uniform after being acquired from the Twins. Eovaldi’s teams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total with him on the mound with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. He faces a cold Phillies lineup that is scoring only 2.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .170 batting average, .247 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .507 over that span. The Under is 9-1-1 in Philadelphia’s last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Phillies (65-53) have seen the Under go 40-15-4 in their last 59 games after a loss. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. Furthermore, the Phillies have played 8 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Velasquez who is 8-9 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty-two starts.Over his last ten appearances, Velasquez has a sparkling 2.68 ERA. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.17 WHIP and .216 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as compared to his 1.29 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Phillies have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Velasquez on the hill. he faces a Red Sox team that has seen the Under go 15-5-2 in their last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and this includes the Under go 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Under is now 6-0-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
FINAL TAKE: Eovaldi should bounce-back with a strong effort tonight — expect a lower scoring game between these two teams that tend to play Unders. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the Philadelphia Phillies (922) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Vincent Velasquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-13-18 |
Mets v. Yankees OVER 7 |
Top |
8-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: The Mets (49-66) has won three of their last four games after their 4-3 win in Miami yesterday. The Yankees (74-43) has won six of their last seven games with their 7-2 win over Texas on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 6-2-1 in the Mets’ last 9 games after a win — and the Mets’ have played 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new series Over the Total. The Mets have also played 21 of their last 28 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced at least at +150 — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when facing an American League opponent. They give the ball to DeGrom who is 6-7 with a 1.77 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twenty-three starts. While DeGrom has been outstanding this season, the sabermetrics indicate he should be giving up more than one run more per start given his SIERA of 2.94 and his xFIP of 2.78. And while DeGrom has been almost unhittable at home where he owns a 1.60 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .191 in thirteen starts, he is closer to a mere mortal when on the road where he his ERA rises to a 2.02 mark along with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225. The Mets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with DeGrom pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. He faces a Yankees team that scores 5.7 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. The Over is 3-1-1 the Bronx Bombers’ last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 3-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games after a win — and they have played 29 of their last 40 home games Over the Total after a win by at least four runs. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 6 of their last 8 opening games to a new series — and the Over is 4-1-2 in their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Severino who is 15-5 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander has struggled as of late with a 7.31 ERA over his last six starts with him struggling with command on his fastball. He comes off a solid outing last Wednesday where he allowed three earned runs in 7 innings of work — but that was against the lowly White Sox. The Yankees have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Severino pitching on four days of rest. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 4.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. Lastly, the Over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in Yankee Stadium.
FINAL TAKE: The number is posted at a low 7 with two of the best pitchers in baseball on the hill — but expect this to be a higher scoring contest. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-07-18 |
Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-114 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Tyler Glasnow. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (34-78) snapped their three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 9-6 win in Texas. Tampa Bay (56-56) has lost three straight games with their 8-7 loss to the White Sox on Sunday. After a travel day yesterday, these two teams begin their series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a victory — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Baltimore has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, this is the Orioles’ seventh straight game on the road — and not only have they played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total after playing at least their previous six games away from home but they have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Cobb who is 3-14 with a 5.83 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been even worse on the road where his ERA rises to a 5.93 mark along with a 1.58 WHIP in thirteen starts. Cobb’s teams have played 11 of their last 16 road games Over the Total when they are priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .254 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .740 over that span — and all those numbers are above their season average. Tampa Bay has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Additionally, the Rays have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after losing at least three straight games. The Rays are big money-line favorites priced in the -160 range — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when priced at -150 or higher. Tampa Bay will be looking to avenge an 11-5 loss back on July 29th — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 10 runs. They counter with Glasnow who is 1-2 with a 4.27 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP this season. He will be making his first start for the Rays since being acquired from the Pirates at the trade deadline. The right-hander had an ugly 7.76 ERA in seven starts (eight appearances) at home last season — and has not been as effective at home almost exclusively out of the bullpen this season where he has a 1.43 WHIP and a .232 opponent’s batting average in 38 1/3 innings as compared to his 1.40 WHIP and a .213 opponent’s batting average in 20 2/3 innings on the road. Glasgow’s teams have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with him making the start. He faces a hot-hitting Orioles lineup that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .303 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .803 over that span. The Over is also 13-3-2 in Baltimore’s last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 131-30-3 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: The number for this game is in the relatively low 7.5 to 8 range — perhaps because of the respective offenses in this game along with some optimism regarding Glasnow’s prospects as a starting pitcher. But both these teams are hitting the ball well as of late — and Glasnow has yet to see significant improvement in his command which is why he was relegated to the bullpen this season by the Pirates before being traded to Tampa Bay. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Tyler Glasnow. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-29-18 |
Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
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At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (963) and the St. Louis Cardinals (964) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and John Gant. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (53-51) has won three of their last four games after winning the second game of this series yesterday by a 6-2 score over the Cubs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, St. Louis has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 23 of their last 36 games Over the Total as an underdog. They give the ball to Gant who is 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in seven starts (and fourteen appearances). The sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander has been overachieving as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.79 and 4.75 respectively moving forward. Gant is making his first start since July 21st (while pitching an inning of relief on Wednesday) — and the Cards have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total with Gant pitching with at least seven days between starts. He faces a Cubs team that has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Gant will likely not get much support from his bullpen in this game either as the St. Louis bullpen has a 5.47 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP over the last seven days. Chicago (60-44) has lost four of their last six games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. The Cubs have also played 7 of their last 8 third games of a series Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against fellow NL Central foes. They counter with Hendricks who is 6-9 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-one starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 4.70 mark along with a 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Hendricks facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cardinals team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these starting pitchers will likely give up their share of runs tonight. Look for a higher-scoring game on national television tonight. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (963) and the St. Louis Cardinals (964) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and John Gant. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-27-18 |
Phillies v. Reds OVER 8.5 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (953) and the Cincinnati Reds (954) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Anthony DeSclafani. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (58-44) won the opening game of this series last night over Cincinnati (45-58) by a 9-4 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have won three straight games as well as five of their last seven contests — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win. Philadelphia has also played 6 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, the Phillies have played 4 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Pivetta who is 6-8 with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in twenty starts (21 games). The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 5.36 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP in nine starts. Pivetta has also taken a nose dive since his ERA peaked at a 3.23 mark back on May 21st. In his 48 2/3 innings since, Pivetta has 6.29 ERA with a 1.80 WHIP. And in his last four starts, Pivetta has been even worse with an 8.82 ERA with a 2.03 WHIP. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Phillies’ last 4 games with Pivetta facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Reds team that has seen the Over go 16-4-2 in their last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 8-2-1 in Cincinnati’s last 11 games after a loss — and the Over is also 18-6-3 in the Reds’ last 27 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 14-3-2 in Cincinnati’s last 19 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with DeSclafani who is 4-3 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in nine starts. He has surrendered 14 home runs this season after giving up two bombs in his last start against the Pirates. The right-hander has been worse at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.57 mark along with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in six starts. The Reds have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with DeSclafani on the hill. He faces a Phillies team that has scored 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .263 batting average with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .812. Philadelphia has also played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Pivetta has been a disaster for the last two months while struggling on the road even during his encouraging start to the season.— and the Reds have been an Over machine as of late. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (953) and the Cincinnati Reds (954) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Anthony DeSclafani. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-22-18 |
Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 7.5 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (909) and the Chicago Cubs (910) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (50-48) won the second-game of their double-header with the Cubs yesterday with a 6-3 score that avenged a 7-2 loss to Chicago (57-40) in the afternoon. These NL Central rivals have split the first four games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: St. Louis has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have played 5 straight road games Over the Total when playing a team with a winning record — and they have played 18 of their last 26 road games when a money-line underdog in the +100 to +150 price range. They give the ball to Mikolas who is 10-3 with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in nineteen starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.01 and 3.78 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.56 mark along with a 1.10 WHIP in ten starts. St. Louis has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total wit Mikolas facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs’ lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .387 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .817 over that span. Chicago has also played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Furthermore, the Cubs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs. Chicago has also played 6 straight home games Over the Total — and they have played 13 of the last 17 home games Over the Total as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. They counter with Quintana who is 8-6 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics also call for regression for Montgomery with both his SIERA and xFIP calling for an ERA of 4.63 and 4.38 moving forward. The left-hander has also not been as effective at home where he is saddled with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in seven starts. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Quintana on the mound facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cardinals’ lineup that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .272 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .789 over that span. The Cardinals have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINA TAKE: Both these teams are swinging hot bats. Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams with overrated starting pitchers relative to their sabermetrics. 25* MLB TBS-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (909) and the Chicago Cubs (910) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-21-18 |
Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 |
Top |
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
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At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (961) and the Chicago Cubs (962) listing both starting pitchers John Gant and Mike Montgomery. THE SITUATION: Chicago (57-39) won the opening game of their double-header with St. Louis (49-48) by a 7-2 score this afternoon.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: St. Louis has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have also played 8 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games when a money-line underdog in the +100 to +150 price range. St. Louis has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Gant who is 3-3 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this season. The sabermetrics are calling for regression as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.48 and 4.51 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.69 mark along with a 1.30 WHIP. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs’ lineup that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .275 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .776 over that span. Chicago has also played 6 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Furthermore, the Cubs have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total at home. Chicago has also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Montgomery who is 3-3 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP this season. The left-hander has struggled since entering the Cubs’ rotation as he has failed to register a Quality Start in four straight starts. The sabermetrics also call for regression for Montgomery with both his SIERA and xFIP calling for an Era of 4.55 and 4.52 moving forward. He has also not been as effective at home where he is saddled with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP along with a .308 opponent’s batting average. Chicago has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Montgomery on the mound. He faces a Cardinals’ lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .291 batting average along with a .355 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .817 over that span. The Cardinals have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINA TAKE: Both these teams are swinging hot bats. Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams with overrated starting pitchers. 25* MLB Saturday Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (961) and the Chicago Cubs (962) listing both starting pitchers John Gant and Mike Montgomery. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-15-18 |
Cubs v. Padres OVER 8 |
Top |
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Eric Lauer. THE SITUATION: Chicago (54-38) has won five of their last seven games with their 11-6 victory over the Padres.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Lester who is 11-2 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in eighteen starts. The left-hander has an outstanding 1.98 ERA in nine starts at home — but he sees that mark rise by nearly a run to a 2.96 mark on the road. The sabermetrics are screaming out for regression with the veteran with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.67 and 4.68 marks moving forward. Lester’s velocity has dropped below 91 MPH which is his lowest mark in over ten years. His Hard-Hit Rate is 33.1% which is not only a career high but also higher than the MLB average which is in the 31% range. The Cubs have played 14 of their last 17 road games Over the Total with Lester pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He faces a Padres team that has played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. San Diego (40-58) has also lost five of their last six games — and they have then played 40 of their last 59 home games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The Padres have also played 28 of their last 46 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Lauer who is 5-5 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in fifteen starts. The sabermetrics are also calling for regression for the rookie with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.71 and 4.53 respectively. San Diego has played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with Lauer on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and the Over is also 4-1-1 in the Padres’ last 6 games with Lauer facing a team from the NL Central. He faces a Cubs team that has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Lester is simply very overvalued right now. We want to try to take advantage of that when he is pitching away from Wrigley Field. While we can’t be zombies to take the Over (or against the Cubs) whenever Lester is on the mound right now, there is enough complementary evidence on the Padres’ ledger to take make a strong investment in the Over. 25* MLB Pre-All-Star Break Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Eric Lauer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-18 |
Yankees v. Indians OVER 9 |
Top |
5-4 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (973) and the Cleveland Indians (974) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (51-42) has won two of their last three games with their 6-5 victory over the Yankees on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Indians have played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a victory. Additionally, Cleveland has now played five straight Overs — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Overs. Furthermore, the Indians have played 11 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9-9.5 range — and the Over is 17-4-1 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Clevinger who is 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for Clevinger with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.03 and 3.94 moving forward. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.08 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in nine starts. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Indians’ last 4 home games with Clevinger on the hill. These are not good signs when faces the Bronx Bombers who are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .293 batting average along with a .353 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .843 over that span. New York (61-32) has seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a loss — and the Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 4-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games on the road. They counter with Sabathia who is 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in seventeen starts. His sabermetrics are also calling for regression with both his SIERA and FIP projecting ERAs of 4.38 and 4.51 moving forward. The left-hander sees his ERA rise to a 4.42 mark along with a 1.40 WHIP in seven starts on the road. Additionally, the Over is 4-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games with Sabathia facing a team from the AL Central. He faces an Indians team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .263 batting average along with a .335 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .766. Cleveland has also played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: In this game between two teams swinging hot bats, expect a higher scoring contest. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (973) and the Cleveland Indians (974) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-13-18 |
Nationals v. Mets UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: Washington (47-46) won the opening game of this series with their 5-4 win over the Mets yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have seen the Under go a decisive 50-24-5 in their last 79 games after a victory. Additionally, Washington has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range — and they have also played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 range. The Under is also 47-19-6 in Washington’s last 72 road games which includes them playing four of their last five road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They give the ball to Roark who is 3-11 with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective away from home as he sees his ERA drop to a 3.63 mark with a 1.23 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average in nine road starts as compared to his ugly 5.98 ERA along with a 1.52 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average at home. The Nationals have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Roark on the hill. Roark also usually pitches well against New York given his 3.19 ERA in nineteen career games with thirteen starts. He should fare well against this Mets team that is scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .167 batting average along with a .232 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .534. New York (37-54) has played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Mets have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They get Syndergaard back after he spent the last seven weeks on the disabled list after posting a 4-1 record with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. The right-hander has been better at home in Citi Field throughout his career where he owns a 2.68 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP as opposed to his 3.22 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP on the road. The Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games with Thor on the hill facing a team with a winning record. He should thrive in his return against this Nationals team that has played 29 of their last 40 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Total opened at 7.5 for this game but has jumped a full run in most spots. What looked like a solid Under play before that movement now becomes an outstanding opportunity with combined scores of 8 now cashing tickets. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Noah Syndergaard. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-18 |
Reds v. Indians OVER 9 |
Top |
4-19 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (925) and the Cleveland Indians (926) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Mahle and Carlos Carrasco. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (41-51) has won the opening two games of this series with their 7-4 victory over the Indians.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 9-2-1 in the Reds’ last 12 games after a win — and the Over is also 11-2-1 in their last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 16-4-3 in their last 23 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Mahle who is 7-6 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 1.53 WHIP and .273 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 1.24 WHIP and .240 opponent’s batting average in eight home starts. That is not a good sign when facing this Indians team that scored 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home while posting a .277 batting average with a .344 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .803 in those games. Cleveland (49-41) has seen the Over go 20-5-2 in their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Indians have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The first two games of this series have gone Over the Total — and Cleveland has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total after playing their last two games Over the Total. Additionally, the Over is 26-7-2 in the Indians’ last 35 games at home which includes the Over going 16-4-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Cleveland has also played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9 to 9.5 range. They counter with Carrasco who is 9-5 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.48 mark along with a 1.38 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average in eight starts. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Indians’ last 8 home games with Carrasco facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Reds team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .263 batting average along with a .344 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .742 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Carrasco has consistently seen his home/road splits favor his starts away from home. With Cincinnati hitting the ball well and the Indians a strong offensive club at home, expect a higher-scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Interleague Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (925) and the Cleveland Indians (926) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Mahle and Carlos Carrasco. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-10-18 |
Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
3-9 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (973) and the Los Angeles Angels (974) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Garrett Richards. THE SITUATION: Seattle (57-34) enters this series coming off a 6-4 win over Colorado on Sunday. Los Angeles (46-45) enters this series after they defeated the Dodgers by a 4-3 score for ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 8 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an off day. Seattle has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Leake who is 8-5 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.71 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in eight starts. Leake’s teams have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when priced as an underdog in the +100 to +150 price range. He should fare well against this Angels team that has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .195 batting average along with a .251 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .574 OPS over that span. The Angels have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after an off day — and the Under is 15-4-3 in their last 22 games after a victory. Furthermore, the Angels have not allowed more than four runs in each of their last six games — and they have then played 31 of their last 42 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least six straight contests. Additionally, not only has LA played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total but they have also played 16 of their last 23 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They counter with Richards who is 5-4 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.31 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in six starts. The Angels have seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games with Richards on the hill facing a team with a winning record. He should also pitch well against this Mariners team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .240 batting average along with a .300 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .689 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: In this game between two slumping offenses, expect a low-scoring game with these two underrated starting pitchers on the hill. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (973) and the Los Angeles Angels (974) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Garrett Richards. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-09-18 |
Nationals v. Pirates UNDER 9.5 |
Top |
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Jefry Rodriguez and Ivan Nova. THE SITUATION: Washington (45-44) saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 10-2 loss to Miami. Pittsburgh (41-48) snapped their five-game losing streak with a 4-1 win over the Phillies yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 11 of their last 12 home games Under the Total in the month of July. Additionally, Pittsburgh has played 23 of their last 32 home games Under the Total with the number posted in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Nova who is 4-6 with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 2.77 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in six starts. The Pirates have played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total with Nova on the hill — and they have also seen the Under go 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games with Nova facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Nationals team that has played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington (45-44) has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing on the road after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Nationals have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Washington has played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They counter with Rodriguez who is 0-0 with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings of work this season after being called up from Triple-A. Manager Davey Martinez has described Rodriguez as having “electric stuff.” He benefits from facing a slumping Pirates lineup that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .287 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .688 during that span. Martinez will also be able to call on his strong bullpen that has a 3.75 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP when pitching on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is listed in the 9/9.5 range mostly because of the uncertainty of Rodriguez — but I expect him to pitch pretty well before the Nationals turn to their bullpen. Nova should pitch well on national television as well. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Jefry Rodriguez and Ivan Nova. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-18 |
Reds v. Cubs OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (957) and the Chicago Cubs (958) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: Chicago (50-36) has won seven of their last eight games with their 8-7 win over the Reds yesterday where they rallied from a 7-4 deficit in the bottom of the 8th inning to score four runs and pull out that comeback victory.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite priced in the -100 to -150 price range. And the Cubs have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Lester who is 11-2 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in seventeen starts. The sabermetrics for the left-hander are screaming “Regression” as both his SIERA and xFIP project his ERA to more than double to a 4.57 and 4.53 marks. Additionally, Chicago has played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with Lester — and they have also seen the Over go 8-1-2 in the last 11 games with Lester facing the Reds. He faces a red-hot Cincinnati lineup that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .283 batting average along with a .368 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .781. The Over is also 12-3-2 in the Reds’ last 17 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati (39-50) has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game. The Over is also 8-2-1 in the Reds’ last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, Cincinnati has played 31 of their last 44 games Over the Total after a blown save. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Over is 5-1-1. They counter with Castillo who is 5-8 with a 5.53 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander sees his ERA skyrocket to a 6.70 ERA along with a 1.53 WHIP in his ten starts on the road. The Reds have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Castillo. He faces a Cubs’ team that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .350 batting average along with a .432 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .983 over that span. Additionally, Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Lester is extremely overvalued right now — and Castillo has been a nightmare when pitching away from the Great American Ballpark. Both these pitchers are facing lineups that are in the zone right now. Lastly, in the last 13 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Over the Total 10 times. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League Central Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (957) and the Chicago Cubs (958) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-18 |
Red Sox v. Royals UNDER 8 |
Top |
10-5 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (973) and the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jason Hammel. THE SITUATION: Boston (59-29) has won eight of their last ten games with their 3-0 win in Washington on Wednesday. Kansas City (25-61) has lost six in a row with their 3-2 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after an off-day — and the Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 opening games to a new series. The Red Sox have also played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% overall. They give the ball to Sale who is 8-4 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in eighteen starts. The left-hander has been more effect on the road where he owns a 2.32 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP along with an opponent’s batting average of .163 in eleven starts. Boston has played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Sale facing a team with a losing record. He should thrive against this slumping Royals team that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .231 batting average along with a .261 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .584 during that span. Kansas City has played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Royals have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an off-day. Additionally, Kansas City has played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run — and the Under is 24-11-2 in their last 37 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. The Royals have also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. They give the ball to Hammel who is 2-10 with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in seven starts this season. The sabermetrics do indicate he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.94 and 5.03 — and his ERA also drops a full run to a 4.53 mark in his seven starts at home. The Under is 6-0-1 in KC’s last 7 home games with Hammel on the hill. He faces a Red Sox team that has seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games against starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: While Hammel does not appear very encouraging for the Under, the sabermetrics are encouraging. Sale should dominate the Royals (which is why the Red Sox are remarkable road favorites priced at almost -400). 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (973) and the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jason Hammel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-18 |
Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Tampa Bay Rays (966) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Ryne Stanek. THE SITUATION: New York (50-22) has won seven of their last eight games with their 4-2 win over Seattle yesterday. Tampa Bay (34-40) has lost five of their last seven contests with their 5-1 loss at Houston on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have seen the Under go 13-3-1 in their last 17 games after a win. Additionally, New York has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Sabathia who is 4-2 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in thirteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.20 WHIP and .209 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 1.22 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average at home. The Yankees have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with Sabathia facing a team with a winning record — and they have also played their last 4 games Under the Total with Sabathia starting in Tampa Bay. The veteran will be supported by a bullpen that is second in the AL with an ERA of 2.86. He faces a cold Rays lineup that is scoring only 2.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .191 batting average along with a .267 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .558 over that span. The Under is also 7-1-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 9 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Rays return home for the first time since June 13th. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games after being on the road for at least seven days — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after an off day. Additionally, The Under is 19-7-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 28 games after a loss — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. They counter with Stanek will pitch the first inning tonight with it being a “bullpen game” for the Rays. The right-hander has not allowed an earned run this month in 10 2/3 innings consisting of eight appearances. He should be followed by Ryan Yarbrough who is pitching his regular fifth turn in the make-shift rotation out of the pen where he usually pitches 4 to 5 innings. Yarbrough is 5-3 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this season — and he has a 4.19 ERA with 1.08 WHIP along with an opponent’s batting average of .229 when at home.
FINAL TAKE: The combination of Stanek and Yarbrough is solid for the Rays while Sabathia continues to cruise in the twilight of his career where he is thriving as a crafty lefty. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Tampa Bay Rays (966) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Ryne Stanek. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-18 |
Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Chicago (40-27) snapped their three-game losing streak last night with their 6-3 victory over the Cardinals.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have now seen the Under go 39-19-2 in their last 61 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Chicago has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the third game of a series. They give the ball to Quintana who is 6-4 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in thirteen starts. The left-hander has been very tough on the road where he owns a 2.68 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in seven starts. The Cubs have played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with Quintana pitching as a favorite priced in the -100 to -150 range — and they have also played 12 of their last 14 road games with Quintana pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Chicago has also played 10 straight road games Under the Total with Quintana pitching with five or six days of rest. Quintana has found a groove over his last three starts as he owns a 2.04 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP. He should pitch well against this Cardinals team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. The Under is also 16-5-1 in St. Louis’ last 22 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Cardinals (36-32) has seen the Under go 13-6-3 in their last 22 games after a loss — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. St. Louis has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 17 of their last 25 home games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Flaherty who is 3-2 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in eight starts. The rookie phenom has been better at home where he owns a 0.96 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 1.25 WHIP and .244 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Cardinals’ last 6 games with Flaherty facing a team with a winning record. He faces a slumping Cubs’ offense that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .221 batting average along with a .309 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .645. Lastly, Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a pitcher’s duel tonight with these two starters facing two teams swinging cold bats. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-18 |
Mets v. Braves UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-8 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Foltynewicz. THE SITUATION: New York (28-34) snapped their eight-game losing streak on Sunday with their 2-0 win over the Yankees. Atlanta (37-28) has lost three of their last four games with their 7-2 loss in Los Angeles to the Dodgers on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less. The Mets have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Wheeler who is 2-4 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.86 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average in five starts. Three of Wheeler’s last four starts were registered as Quality Starts. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the Mets’ last 45 games with Wheeler facing a fellow NL East opponent. Atlanta (37-28) has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Braves have also played 5 straight games Under the Total at home. They counter with Foltynewicz who is 5-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in six starts this season. The right-hander has an outstanding 0.97 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .167 in his last six starts. Foltynewicz has only given up two earned runs or less in twelve of his thirteen starts this season. The Under is 5-1-2 in Atlanta’s last 8 home games with Foltynewicz on the hill. The Mets’ bats are ice-cold as they are scoring average 1.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .143 batting average along with .211 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .454 over that span. Lastly, New York has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With two starting pitchers performing very well right now along with the anemic Mets’ bats in this game, expect a low-scoring contest. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Foltynewicz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-04-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7.5 |
Top |
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Derek Holland. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (29-30) has won four straight games with their 6-1 win over Philadelphia yesterday. Arizona (31-27) has won five of their last six games with their 6-1 win in Miami yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played their last three games Under the Total — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. San Francisco has also played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 7.5 range. And in their last 11 opening games to a new series, the Over is 7-2-2. They give the ball to Holland who is 3-6 with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 5.75 ERA in four starts this season. Holland has seen 4 of his last 5 starts against NL West teams finish Over the Total. He faces a hot-hitting Diamondbacks team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .815 OPS over that span. Arizona has played 6 straight games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. They have also seen the Over go 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. And while the Diamondbacks have not allowed more than two runs in their last three games, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games. Now Arizona goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have also played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Godley who is 5-4 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 5.81 ERA with a 1.90 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average in six starts. The Diamondbacks have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Godley on the mound. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 4.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .293 batting average along with a .341 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .751.
FINAL TAKE: With both these teams hitting the ball well right now, expect a high scoring game featuring two vulnerable starting pitchers. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Godley and Derek Holland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-18 |
Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
8-10 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (953) and the St. Louis Cardinals (954) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (29-26) snapped their four-game losing streak yesterday with their 2-1 win over the Cubs. St. Louis (29-24) has lost two of their last three games with their 3-2 loss in Milwaukee yesterday. The Cardinals return home to host this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have lost five of their last seven games — and they have then played 13 of their last 17 road games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-3 in Pittsburgh’s last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record. And in their last 30 road games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range, they have played 21 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Williams who is 5-3 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.14 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and .170 opponent’s batting average in five starts. The Pirates have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with Williams on the mound. He faces a Cardinals teams that are scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .239 batting average, .285 On-Base Percentage and .661 OPS over that span. The Under is 5-1-1 in St. Louis’ last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Cardinals have also played 4 straight home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. St. Louis (29-24) has seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games are a loss. The Cardinals have also seen the Under go 16-4-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. St. Louis has also played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total with the number set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Flaherty who is 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in five starts this season. Flaherty will be making just his second start at home this year after allowing only one earned run in 7 2/3 innings of work against the Phillies earlier this season. In three career starts at home, the right-hander has a 0.89 WHIP and .080 opponent’s batting average. Furthermore, the Under is 4-0-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games with Flaherty facing a team with a winning record. He faces a cold-hitting Pirates team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .237 batting average, .266 On-Base Percentage and .656 OPS over that span. The Under is 4-1-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 — and the Under is 33-16-5 in their last 54 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both starting pitchers should dominate against two lineups that are struggling to score points. 25* Major League Baseball Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (953) and the St. Louis Cardinals (954) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-18 |
Mets v. Braves OVER 9 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-103 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Julio Teheran. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (32-22) won the third game of this series on Tuesday with a 7-6 victory over the Mets. The series concludes with a fourth game tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total. They also have played 7 of their last 10 fourth games to a series. They give the ball to Teheran who is 4-2 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home in the hitter-friendly Sun Trust Park where he has a 5.54 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 3.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .178 opponent’s batting average on the road. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Teheran pitching on grass. Teheran faces a New York team that is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .290 batting average, .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .810 over that span. The Mets have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. New York (26-26) saw their bullpen surrender all six runs yesterday — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen gave up at least five runs. Additionally, the Mets have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Vargas who is 1-3 with a 10.62 ERA and a 2.16 WHIP in five starts this season. The left-hander has been a disaster in three road starts where he has a 15.19 ERA with a 2.63 WHIP and .404 opponent’s batting average. Vargas had an 18-11 record with a 4.16 ERA and 1.33 WHIP last year with the Royals — but those numbers were propped up very fortunate BABIP and Left-On-Base rates in the first-half of the season. His ugly 6.38 ERA over the second-half of the season took place after those metrics finally regressed back to the mean. Vargas faces an Atlanta team that scores 6.1 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .286 batting average, .360 On-Base Percentage and an .818 On-Base Percentage. The Braves also score 5.5 Runs-Per-Game at home — and the Over is 21-8-2 in their last 31 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower. Lastly, New York has played 5 of their last 7 games with Vargas making the start.
FINAL TAKE: Vargas has been a mess for almost an entire calendar year while Teheran typically sees home/road splits that favor his being away from the new Sun Trust Park. Expect the hitters to enjoy the advantage for both teams tonight. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Julio Teheran. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-23-18 |
Royals v. Cardinals UNDER 8 |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 1:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (975) and the St. Louis Cardinals (976) listing both starting pitchers Jakob Junis and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (15-33) won the second game of this series last night by a 5-1 score. This three-game series concludes this afternoon in this getaway game in St. Louis (26-20).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Royals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. They give the ball to Junes who is 5-3 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 2.70 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .202 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 4.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average at home. Junis also is performing better in day games where he has a 2.75 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in three starts which all finished Under the Total. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Junis pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a Cardinals team that has seen the Under go 11-4-3 in their last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. St. Louis has seen the Under go 6-2-2 in their last 10 games after a loss — and the Under is also 20-7-2 in their last 29 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is 9-3-2 in the Cardinals’ last 14 home games. They counter with Wacha who is 5-1 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in nine starts this season — and he has not allowed more than two earned runs in each of his last six starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.38 ERA in six starts as compared to his 4.60 ERA in three starts on the road. Last year, Wacha enjoyed a 3.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .259 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 4.97 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and .277 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Cardinals have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with Wacha facing a team with a losing record. Wacha was also more effective during day games last year where he sported a 3.16 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .252 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.64 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .275 opponent’s batting average in night games.
FINAL TAKE: Expect both starting pitchers to see success in this afternoon midweek contest. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (975) and the St. Louis Cardinals (976) listing both starting pitchers Jakob Junis and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-18 |
Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 7 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jake Faria. THE SITUATION: Boston (32-15) has won four of their last five games after their 5-0 win over Baltimore on Sunday. Tampa Bay (22-23) hosts this series after seeing their six-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with a 5-2 loss in Los Angeles against the Angels.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Sale who is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in ten starts this season. The left-hander has been a bit more effective on the road where he has a 0.83 WHIP and a .182 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his 1.09 WHIP and .202 opponent’s batting average at home. The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Sale on the hill. He should pitch better against this Tampa Bay team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .253 batting average, .322 On-Base Percentage and .694 OPS. Furthermore, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Ray’s last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Under is 3-1-2 in their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay has seen the Under go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a loss. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Faria who is 3-2 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander is struggling on the road with an 8.14 ERA and 1.56 WHIP but he has been much better at home where he sports a 1.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in four starts. The Under is 5-0-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 6 home games with Faria facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Boston team that sees their team batting average drop to a .253 mark with a .307 On-Base Percentage and .725 OPS when on the road. The Red Sox have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. And in their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Under is 5-1-1.
FINAL TAKE: Faria usually pitches much better at home — this could end up being a pitching duel with Sale who is a bit more effective away from Fenway Park and it’s Green Monster. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jake Faria. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-20-18 |
Indians v. Astros UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (927) and the Houston Astros (928) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Lance McCullers. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (22-22) won the second game of this series yesterday with their 5-4 victory over the Astros. The series concludes tonight in Houston for Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston (29-18) has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Astros have also played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road — and they have played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total played at night. They give then ball to McCullers who is 5-2 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.37 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home as compared to his 4.36 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average on the road. Houston has played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total with McCullers facing a team with a losing record. He faces an Indians team that has seen the Under go 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Cleveland stranded three baserunners last night — and they have then played 16 of their last 26 games Under the Total after stranded three or fewer runners in their last game. The Indians have also played a decisive 47 of their last 38 road games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Carrasco who is 5-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has been very tough on the road where he sports a 2.78 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .211 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 5.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. The Under is 11-4-1 in the Indians’ last 16 road games with Carrasco on the mound. He faces an Astros team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Under is 19-7-1 in Houston’s last 27 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
CONCLUSION: Expect a pitcher’s duel between Carrasco and McCullers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (927) and the Houston Astros (928) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-18 |
A's v. Red Sox OVER 8 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
|
105 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (915) and the Boston Red Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Chris Sale. THE SITUATION: Oakland (21-21) won the second game of this series last night with their 5-3 victory in Boston.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Oakland has also played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total as a big underdog priced in the +175 to +200 price range. They send out Cahill who is coming off the 10-day disabled list exactly ten days after going on the DL — and his teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total when he was pitching with at least ten days between starts. The right-hander has a 1-1 record with a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in four starts — but he has a 4.91 ERA in two starts on the road while not yet allowing an earned run in his two starts at home. Last year, Cahill had an awful 7.07 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP and .320 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road in his stints with Kansas City and San Diego. The Over is 3-0-1 in Cahill’s last 4 road starts. He faces a strong hitting team in Fenway Park as Boston is scoring 6.5 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .287 batting average along with a .804 OPS. The Over is 9-3-1 in the Red Sox’s last 13 home games against teams against a right-handed starting pitcher. Boston (28-14) has played 12 of their last 17 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Red Sox have also played 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Sale who is 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in nine starts this season. The left-hander has not been as effective at home with the Green Monster looming in left-field with his 1.06 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 0.83 WHIP and .182 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Sale had a 2.17 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average on the road with those numbers all rising to a 3.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average at home. Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Sale on the hill. Lastly, the Over is 26-8-2 in the A’s last 36 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
CONCLUSION: The Red Sox should pound Cahill while Sale should give up a few runs on his end of things. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (915) and the Boston Red Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Chris Sale. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-18 |
Nationals v. Giants UNDER 7 |
Top |
15-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jeff Samardzija. Washington (10-14) has lost four straight games after their 4-3 loss in Game Two of this series against the Giants. The Nationals are swinging cold bats right now as they are scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .211 batting average along with a .285 On-Base Percentage and a .589 OPS over that span. These cold bats have helped Washington play four straight Unders — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last two games Under the Total. The Nationals have not committed an error in the field in five straight games — and they have then played 39 of their last 63 games Under the Total after not committing an error in at least two straight games. Washington has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing as a road favorite with double-revenge on their minds. They send out Scherzer who is 4-1 with a 1.36 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP in five starts this season. The right-hander was more effective on the road last year where he enjoyed a 1.82 ERA along with a 0.81 WHIP and .156 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 3.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .200 opponent’s batting average when at home. Scherzer was also better in day games where he sported a 1.90 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and .140 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.72 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .191 opponent’s batting average at night. Washington has seen the Under go a decisive 31-14-6 in their last 51 games on the road. The Nationals have also seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games with Scherzer on the mound on the road. He should fare well against this San Fran team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Under is also 15-5-1 in the Giants’ last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
San Francisco (11-12) has won three straight games while hammering home runs in seven straight contests — but they will be facing a starting pitcher in Max Scherzer who has only allowed two homers this season. Despite this home runs, the Giants are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games which is only a slight tick above the 3.2 Runs-Per-Game rate for the season. They are also hitting only .235 with a .292 On-Base Percentage and a .716 OPS over these last seven contests. The Under is 35-16-4 in their last 55 games after a win — and they have also played 36 of their last 54 games Under the Total after a win by just one run. San Fran has also only played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Jeff Samardzija who did not allow an earned run in 5 innings of work in his first start of the season on Friday on Los Angeles against the Angels. The right-hander started the season on the Disabled List with a pectoral injury but looked very good in that start. Last season, Samardzija was more effective at home where he owned a 3.97 ERA and .251 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.81 ERA and .258 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Samardzija struggled with giving up too many home runs last year — particularly in hitter’s parks like Colorado and Arizona. But he also struck out batters 24.2% of the time while only issuing walks in a career-low 3.8% of his batters faced. Those peripherals help explain why both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.63 and 3.60 off this 2017 numbers. Samardzija was also better during day games where hewed a 1.08 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 1.17 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average at night. The Giants have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total with Samardzija pitching as an underdog. San Fran has also played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total with Samardzija pitching with four days of rest. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (953) and the San Francisco Giants (954) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jeff Samardzija. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-17 |
Dodgers v. Astros UNDER 8 |
Top |
3-5 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) and the Houston Astros (906) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Lance McCullers. Los Angeles (112-60) evened this series at 1-1 on Wednesday with their 7-6 win in extra innings in what became a game for the ages in World Series history. The Dodgers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after an off day. Now they go on the road where the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games away from home. They give the ball to Darvish who is 10-12 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. The right-hander was been more effective on the road during the regular season where he had a 2.44 ERA with a .206 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 5.25 ERA along with a .246 opponent’s batting average at home with Texas and then the Dodgers after being traded to LA. The right-hander has been outstanding in this postseason where he has a 2–0 record with a 1.59 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in two starts. Darvish’s teams have played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price-range. He faces an Astros team that is hitting just .201 over their last seven games with a .280 On-Base Percentage and .638 OPS over that span. Houston has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Astros have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
Houston (109-66) has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home in Minute Maid Park. The Astros have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when hosting the Dodgers. It is telling that manager A.J. Hinch has decided to tap Lance McCullers over Charlie Morton who was the starter in Game Seven of the ALCS against the Yankees last Saturday. McCullers pitched four scoreless innings in that game to earn the save while allowing only one hit and no earned runs. During the regular season, McCullers was 7-4 with a 4.25 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander was more effective at home where he owned a 3.04 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 5.14 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. The Astros have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with McCullers the starting pitcher with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. McCullers has been money this postseason given his 2.08 ERA along with an 0.85 WHIP in 13 innings that includes two starts along with that bullpen stint last week. He faces a Dodgers’ team that its hitting just .233 over their last seven games. Lastly, the Under is 5-0-1 in Los Angeles’ last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Playoffs Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) and the Houston Astros (906) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-17 |
Yankees v. Astros UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
1-7 |
Loss |
-122 |
9 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Justin Verlander. Houston (106-65) returns home having lost all three games in Yankee Stadium after their 5-0 loss on Wednesday. The Astros have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss. Houston has not scored more than four runs in five straight games — and they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in at least four straight games. Furthermore, the Under is 15-5-1 in the Astros’ last 21 home ames against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Verlander tonight who has been outstanding for them since being acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. In his five regular season starts wearing an Astros uniform, Verlander had a 5-0 record with a 1.06 ERA and a 0.65 WHIP. In his two regular season starts in Houston, Verlander had a 0.64 ERA, 0.50 WHIP and 0.93 WHIP. The right-hander has been outstanding in the postseason with a 3-0 record along with a 2.04 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP with 16 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings of work. In his 116 innings in his career in the playoffs, Verlander has a 10-5 record with a 3.18 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Verlander comes off a complete game where he allowed only one earned run against the Yankees in Game Two of this series — and not only am I not worried about the carry over from the pitch count from that effort with him pitching on his normal four days of rest but his teams have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when he is following up a start where he allowed one earned run or less. Furthermore, the Astros have played 5 of their 7 games Under the Total with Verlander on the mound for them. He faces a Yankees lineup that is hitting only .227 with a .301 On-Base Percentage and .688 OPS over their last seven games. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in New York’s last 4 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
New York (98-75) has seen the Under go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a win — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 3-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games after an off day. Now New York goes back on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They give the ball to Severino who is 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road with a 2.24 ERA in fifteen regular season starts as compared to his 3.71 ERA an sixteen starts at home. He faces a Houston team that is scoring just 2.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .207 Batting Average along with an On-Base Percentage of .277 and an OPS of .577. The Astros have played 8 straight home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, Houston has payed 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB American League Playoffs Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Justin Verlander. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-17 |
Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 9:01 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (967) and the Chicago Cubs (968) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Jake Arrieta. Chicago (95-75) finds themselves on the brink of elimination tonight after their 6-1 loss to the Dodgers last night. The Cubs have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss. Chicago has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, not only have the Cubs played 4 straight home games Under the Total but they have also played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total at home when a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. I was a little surprised to the see the Total listed at 9.5 (as of this writing) when it opened — but Chicago has played 29 of their last 46 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Arrieta who is 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.90 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average in ten starts. Arrieta has been good in the playoffs throughout his career given his 3.33 ERA along with a 1.07 WHIP in 46 innings of work. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 6 games with Arrieta facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Dodgers team that has seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Los Angeles (110-58) has seen the Under go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a victory. The Dodgers have also played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Alex Wood who is making his start this postseason. He seems to not be given much respect from the oddsmakers and the betting public with this Total in the 9 range. The left-handed enjoyed a breakout season where he posted a 16-3 record with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been outstanding on the road where he owns a 2.24 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .203 in thirteen starts as compared to his 3.20 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average in fourteen games (twelve starts) at home. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Wood facing a team with a winning record. He should thrive against this cold Cubs lineup that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .174 batting average with a .245 On-Base Percentage and .522 OPS over that span. Furthermore, the Under is 4-0-1 in Chicago’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB National League Playoffs Total of the Year with Los Angeles Dodgers (967) and the Chicago Cubs (968) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Jake Arrieta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-08-17 |
Indians v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (953) and the New York Yankees (954) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Masahiro Tanaka. New York (92-73) finds themselves on the brink of elimination tonight after falling behind by a 2-0 margin in this series on Friday with their 9-8 loss to the Indians. The Yankees have then played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss. New York has also valued 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Now New York returns home to Yankee Stadium where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Yanks have also played 7 of their last 9 games in the playoffs at home Under the Total. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season. But the right-hander has been much better at home where he owns a 3.22 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts as compared to his 6.48 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and .292 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts on the road. The Under is 6-2-1 in the Yankees’ last 9 home games with Tanaka on the hill. He should pitch well against this Cleveland team that is hitting just .220 over their last seven games with a mediocre .324 On-Base Percentage and a .703 OPS over that span. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
Cleveland (104-60) has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game. The Indians have also played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. And in their last 15 games after a game where at least fifteen combined runs were scored, Cleveland has played 13 of these games Under the Total. Now they go on the road where the Under is a decisive 39-18-7 in their last 64 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Indians have also played 6 of their last 7 playoff games on the road Under the Total. They counter with Carlos Carrasco who is 18-6 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .210 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 3.99 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts at home. Cleveland has played 13 of their last 15 road games Under the Total with Carrasco pitching as a money-line favorite priced no higher than -150. He should thrive against this Yankees team that is hitting just .219 over their last seven games with a .219 batting average along with a .292 On-Base Percentage and .687 OPS. 25* MLB Divisional Playoffs Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (953) and the New York Yankees (954) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Masahiro Tanaka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-17 |
Twins v. Yankees OVER 7.5 |
Top |
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (931) and the New York Yankees (932) listing both starting pitchers Ervin Santana and Luis Severino. We have a strong technical situation here. New York (91-71) hosts this AL Wildcard game tonight as a heavy money-line favorite — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as a money-line favorite priced at least at -200. The Yankees enter this game having allowing 2 runs, 1 run and zero runs in their last three games. But New York has then played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after allowing three runs or less in their last two contests — and they have played 8 straight home games Over the Total after allowing no more than three runs in three straight games. And in their last 10 games after an off day, the Yankees have played 7 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Severino who is 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.04 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been less effective at home where he owns a 3.71 ERA in sixteen starts as compared to his 2.24 ERA in fifteen starts on the road. New York has played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with Severino on the mound — and that includes playing four straight Overs at home with Severino facing a team with a winning record. Furthermore, while Severino comes off a strong outing where he allowed just one earned run in 6 innings against the Rays — and not only have the Yankees played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Severino following up a Quality Start but they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total with Severino following up a start where he allowed only one earned run.
Minnesota (85-77) enters this playoff game coming off a 5-1 win over the Tigers on Sunday — and they have played 24 of their last 36 games Over the Total on the road after a win by at least four runs. The Twins have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after an off day. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 opening games to a new series Over the Total. They counter with Ervin Santana who is 16-8 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season. But the right-hander has struggled in the postseason. In 22 2/3 innings of work in the postseason which includes two starts and six appearances from the bullpen, Santana has a 5.56 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP. Lastly, Minnesota has seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games on the road. 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with the Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (931) and the New York Yankees (932) listing both starting pitchers Ervin Santana and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-17 |
Tigers v. Twins OVER 8.5 |
Top |
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (925) and the Minnesota Twins (926) while listing both starting pitchers Matthew Boyd and Kyle Gibson. Detroit (63-96) snapped their nine-game losing streak last night with their 4-1 win in Kansas City. The Tigers have then played 12 of their last 15 Over the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, not only has Detroit played 34 of their last 46 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four games but they have played 26 of their last 35 games Over the Total after losing four of their last five contests. This team has not scored more than four runs in eight straight games — but they have then played 19 of their last 25 games Over the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three straight games. And while the Tigers are looking to avenge getting swept at home in a four-game series against this Minnesota team, they have then played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing with revenge after being swept in at least a three-game series against their opponent. Additionally, Detroit has played 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new series Over the Total. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record, the Over is 3-0-1. They give the ball to Boyd who is 6-10 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.54 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been less effective on the road where he owns a 5.86 ERA, 1.870 WHIP and .328 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as compared to his 4.52 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts at home. The Tigers have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with Boyd on the hill. He faces a red-hot Minnesota offense that is scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last three games with a .296 batting average along with a .350 On-Base Percentage and .815 OPS. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Twins’ last 5 games against starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
Minnesota (83-76) has lost two in a row with their 5-2 loss in Cleveland yesterday. The Twins have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Kyle Gibson who is 12-10 with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at homie where he owns a 5.65 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and .308 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts at home as compared to his 4.34 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .266 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Gibson pitching as the favorite. Furthermore, the Twins have played 11 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with Gibson pitching in the month of September. He faces a Detroit team that has seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against right-handed starting pitchers. And in their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Over is 5-0-1. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (925) and the Minnesota Twins (926) while listing both starting pitchers Matthew Boyd and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-17 |
Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (957) and the St. Louis Cardinals (958) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Lance Lynn. Chicago (89-69) won the third game of this series yesterday with their 5-2 victory yesterday. The Cubs have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 28 of their last 39 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 7-5 with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .235 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 3.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts at home. The Cubs have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with Hendricks on the mound. He faces a Cardinals team that has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home against right-handed starting pitchers.
St. Louis (82-76) has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home. They counter with Lance Lynn who is 11-8 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.02 ERA along with a 1.15 WHIP and .220 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts as compared to his 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .229 opponent’s batting average in eighteen starts on the road. St. Louis has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Lynn pitching with four days of rest. And in the Cards’ last 16 games with Lynn pitching in the second-half of the season, they have played 12 of these games Under the Total. Lastly, he faces a Cubs team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (957) and the St. Louis Cardinals (958) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-17 |
Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 9 |
Top |
5-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (905) and the Philadelphia Phillies (906) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Mark Leiter. Philadelphia (63-95) has won two of their last three games with their 4-1 victory over the Nationals last night. The Phillies have now seen the Under go 6-2-3 in their last 11 games at home. That was just the second time in their last six games where they managed to score four runs — and they have then played 29 of their last 43 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight games where they scored no more than four runs. Additionally, the Under is 5-0-2 in Philly’s last 7 games Under the Total against NL East opponents. They give the ball to Leiter who is 3-6 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.27 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for immediate improvement with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.10 or 4.12 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.36 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .207 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his ugly 7.35 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and .281 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts on the road. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Phillies’ last 5 home games with Leiter on the hill. He should fare well against this Washington team that is scoring just 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .192 batting average, .259 On-Base Percentage and .626 OPS over that span. Furthermore, the Under is 21-7-3 in the Nationals’ last 31 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Washington (95-62) saw their three-winning streak snapped last night. The Nationals have now played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the month of September. And while the Washington bullpen has an ERA of 1.53 over their last five games, the Nats have then played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of 2.00 or lower in their last five games. Furthermore, Washington has played 4 straight games Under the Total against NL East opponents. And in their last 26 games on the road, the Under is 17-5-4 in these contests — and the Nationals have played four straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 12-3-3 in their last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They counter with Tanner Roark who is 13-10 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.29 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been much better on the road with a 3.84 ERA along with a 1.27 WHIP and .232 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts as compared to his 4.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .262 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts (sixteen games) at home. Washington has played 5 straight road games Under the Total with Roark on the hill. Furthermore, Roark comes off a nice outing where he allowed three earned runs in 7 innings of work at Atlanta — and the Nats have played 9 straight games Under the Total with Roark looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Philadelphia team that has scored only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they are hitting just .207 with a .290 On-Base Percentage and a .606 OPS. Lastly, the Under his 5-1-4 in the Phillies’ last 10 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB NL East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (905) and the Philadelphia Phillies (906) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Mark Leiter. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-17 |
Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 |
Top |
4-11 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) listing both starting pitchers Matt Moore and Robbie Ray. San Francisco (62-95) exploded for nine runs last night in their 9-2 victory over the Diamondbacks in the opening game of this National League West series. The Giants have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. San Francisco has also played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams that allowed at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 48 games at night on the road, the Giants have played 30 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Moore who is 6-14 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been particularly ineffective on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.51 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .306 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts (sixteen games) on the road as compared to his 4.21 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts (seventeen games) at home. San Francisco has seen the Over go 7-0-1 in their last 8 road games with Moore facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Diamondbacks team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with an OPS of .802 over that span.
Arizona (90-67) has seen the Over go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Over is also 10-4-1 in the Diamondback’s last 15 games at home. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%, Arizona has played 5 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Robbie Ray who is 14-5 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP this season. But the right-hander has struggled at home in Chase Field where he has a 4.37 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and .229 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as compared to his 1.79 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .177 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts on the road. The Over is 19-6-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 26 home games with Ray on the hill — and that includes Arizona played six of their last seven home games Over the Total with Ray facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Giants’ team that is swinging better bats to close out the season as they are hitting .286 over their last seven games with a .397 On-Base Percentage and a .761 OPS over that span. Lastly, in the last 14 meetings between these two teams in Arizona, the game finished Over the Total in 11 of these contests. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) listing both starting pitchers Matt Moore and Robbie Ray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-25-17 |
Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 9 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (917) and the Boston Red Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Drew Pomeranz. Boston (91-64) begins this series coming off a 5-4 win at Cincinnati yesterday afternoon. The Under is then 21-8-2 in the Red Sox’s last 31 games after a victory. Boston has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 51 games at home, the Under is 33-16-2 for the Red Sox — and this includes playing twenty-one of their last thirty home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Pomeranz who is 16-5 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.11 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .241 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts at home as compared to his 3.19 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .255 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts on the road. The Red Sox have played 4 of their las 5 games Under the Total with Pomeranz pitching on grass. He should fare well again this Blue Jays team that is hitting only .201 over their last seven games with a .274 On-Base Percentage and .636 OPS. The Under is a decisive 46-19-5 in Toronto’s last 70 games against left-handed starting pitchers. And in their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Under is 18-8-1.
Toronto (73-63) begins this series coming off a 9-5 win over the Yankees yesterday. The Red Sox have then played 7 straight games Under the Total against teams that allowed at least five runs in their last game. The Blue Jays have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Toronto has played 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record. The Blue Jays have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against AL East opponents. Together, these team trends produce our specific They counter with Brett Anderson who is 3-4 with a 7.15 ERA and 1.81 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been much better on the road where his ERA plummets to a 2.86 ERA along with a 1.50 WHIP and .259 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his ugly 11.19 ERA, 2.10 WHIP and .385 opponent’s batting average in seven starts at home between the Cubs and now the Blue Jays. He should find success against this slumping Red Sox team that is hitting only .203 over their last seven games along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and .605 OPS over that span. 25* MLB AL East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (917) and the Boston Red Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Drew Pomeranz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-24-17 |
Angels v. Astros UNDER 9 |
Top |
7-5 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (971) and the Houston Astros (972) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Lance McCullers. Houston (95-59) has won eight of their last nine games with their 6-2 victory in the second game of this series. The Astros have now played 5 straight games Under the Total after a victory. Houston has also seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games at home — and that includes playing 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to McCullers making his first start since the beginning of the month after dealing with arm fatigue. He was fine in his last bullpen session and will be motivated to prove himself in this audition to be included in the team’s playoff rotation. For the season, McCullers has a 7-3 record along with a 3.97 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.39 and 3.15 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.78 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .265 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Astros have played 17 of their last 22 home games Under the Total with McCullers on the mound. He should fare well against this LA team that has played 4 straight road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. This is a slumping Angels’ team playing out the string. Over their last seven games, this team is scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game with a .186 batting average along with a .272 On-Base Percentage and .576 OPS.
Los Angeles (76-78) has lost six in a row after yesterday. The Angels have played 34 of their last 51 games Under the Total with the number set in the 9 to 9.5 range. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Tyler Skaggs who is 2-6 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.93 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .259 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.66 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and .280 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Angels have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Skaggs on the mound. He will be facing an Astros team that is slumping on offense. Over their last seven games, Houston is scoring only 4.6 Runs-Per-Game with a .250 batting average along with a .310 On-Base Percentage and .741 OPS as compared to their 5.4 Runs-Per-Game scoring average for the season along with a .280 batting average, .341 On-Base Percentage and .804 OPS. Lastly, the Astros have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (971) and the Houston Astros (972) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-17 |
Giants v. Padres OVER 8.5 |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Ty Blach and Travis Wood. San Diego (58-74) snapped their four-game losing streak last night with their 6-3 win over the Giants. The Padres have then seen the Over go 13-4-1 in their last 18 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 19-7-1 in San Diego’s last 27 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They give the ball to Wood who is 3-4 with a 6.67 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season. Since being picked up by the Padres after being waived by the Royals, the left-hander has struggled at home where he has a 1.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .355 as opposed to his more mild 1.77 WHIP and .283 opponent’s batting average on the road. Wood’s teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when he is making the start. He faces a Giants team that has played 4 straight games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
San Francisco (53-81) has lost four of their last five games after their setback last night. The Over is 14-5-1 in the Giants’ last 20 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. San Francisco has also played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Ty Blach who is 8-10 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.35 WHIP this season. The left-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 5.64 ERA along with a 1.47 WHIP and .312 opponent’s batting average in nine starts (thirteen games) as compared to his 4.01 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts (sixteen games) at home. Additionally, the Giants have played 7 of their last 9 with Blach facing a team with a losing record. He faces a San Diego team that has seen the Over go 13-4-1 in their last 18 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is also 3-1-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, in the last 6 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Over the Total 5 times. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Ty Blach and Travis Wood. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-17 |
Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the Cincinnati Reds (908) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Sal Romano. Cincinnati (53-74) has lost three straight games after their 9-3 loss to the Cubs . The Reds’ pitching is just getting clobbered right now as they have surrendered at least eight runs in four straight games. Cincinnati has then played 7 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least seven runs in three straight games. The Reds have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss. Furthermore, Cincy has played 8 of ther last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And this Reds team has played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a loss by at least six runs. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 7 straight home games Over the Total at home. They give the ball to Romano who is 3-5 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this season. The right-hander has particularly struggled at home where he has been saddled with a 6.63 ERA along with a 1.74 WHIP and .296 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 4.39 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .282 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. He faces a red-hot Cubs team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with a .297 batting average with a .380 On-Base Percentage and .864 OPS during that span. Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cubs have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
Chicago (68-57) has now won five straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win. The Cubs have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. And in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record at home, the Over is 7-2-1. They counter with Jake Arrieta who is 13-8 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this season. The right-hander comes off a strong outing where he allowed only one earned run at home against the Blue Jays — but Chicago has then played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when Arrieta is coming off a game where he did not allow more than one earned run in his last start. Arrieta has not been as effective on the road either where he has a 3.86 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .244 opponent’s batting average in sixteen starts as compared to his 3.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .216 opponent’s batting average in nine starts at home. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 road games with Arrieta facing a team with a losing record. Chicago has also played 5 straight road games Over the Total with Arrieta facing this Reds team. Cincinnati may be struggling with their pitching — but they are swinging good bats right now as they are scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .289 batting average along with a .370 On-Base Percentage and .884 OPS over that span. Lastly, the Reds have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the Cincinnati Reds (908) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Sal Romano. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-21-17 |
Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8 |
Top |
6-5 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (951) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Gerrit Cole. Los Angeles (87-35) suffered a rare loss yesterday in a 6-1 loss to the Tigers and Justin Verlander. The Dodgers have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Wood who is 14-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been particularly tough on the road where he enjoys a 1.72 ERA along with a 1.01 WHIP and .201 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his still strong (but not filthy) 2.77 ERA along with a 1.02 WHIP and .211 opponent’s batting average in ten starts (twelve games) at home. Furthermore, while Wood comes off another strong start where he allowed only one run at home against the White Sox — and the Dodgers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Wood looking to follow up a Quality Start.
Pittsburgh (60-64) looks to build off their 6-3 win over the Cardinals last night. The Pirates have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory. That game finished just below the 9.5 Total (unfortunately for us) — and that was the 28th Under in their last 43 games played in the second-half of the season. Additionally, the Under is 3-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Gerrit Cole who is 10-8 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.94 ERA along with a 1.21 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 4.10 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts on the road. The Pirates have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Cole facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Los Angeles team that has seen their bats cool a bit — they are hitting only .239 with a .381 slugging percentage over their last seven games as compared to their .257 batting average with a .433 slugging percentage for the season. Lastly, the Dodgers have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (951) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Gerrit Cole. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-11-17 |
Indians v. Rays UNDER 8 |
Top |
5-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (969) and the Tampa Bay Rays (970) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Jacob Faria. Tampa Bay (59-57) won the opening game of this series last night with their 4-1 win over the Indians. The Rays have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win. Tampa Bay has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games at home, the Rays have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to their Faria who is 5-2 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.56 ERA along with a 1.07 WHIP and .207 opponent’s batting average in five starts at home as compared to his 3.03 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .221 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. Faria comes off a tough-luck loss in his last start where he allowed just one earned run in 6 innings of work against the Brewers — and Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Faria looking to follow up a Quality Start. He should fare well against the cold Cleveland bats that are scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .176 batting average along with a .238 On-Base Percentage and .527 OPS over that span. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
Cleveland (60-52) has lost four of their last five games after last night’s setback. The Indians are the money-line favorite tonight with Carlos Carrasco on the hill — and they have played a decisive 19 of their last 24 road games Under the Total as a favorite priced in the -125 to -175 price range. The Under is also 12-3-1 in Cleveland’s last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Carrasco has a 10-5 record with a 4.06 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this year. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.44 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as compared to his 4.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .262 opponent’s batting average in ten starts at home. The Indians have played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with Carrasco pitching as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. Cleveland has also played 15 of their last 18 road games Under the Total with Carrasco pitching at night. He faces a Tampa Bay team that is not swinging hot bats either. Over their last seven contests, the Rays are scoring only 1.9 Runs-Per-Game with a .197 batting average along with a .260 On-Base Percentage and .556 OPS over that span. The Rays have played 6 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (969) and the Tampa Bay Rays (970) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Jacob Faria. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-06-17 |
Dodgers v. Mets OVER 9 |
Top |
8-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Steven Matz. New York (49-59) has lost three straight as well as six of their last seven contests with their 7-4 loss to the Dodgers yesterday afternoon. The Mets have now seen the Over go 9-1-1 in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Over is 15-4-3 in New York’s last 22 third games of a series. They give the ball to Steven Matz who is 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.51 WHIP this season. The left-hander is struggling — he has not recorded a Quality Start since June 3rd. Matz has been particularly ineffective when pitching at home where he has been saddled with a 9.69 ERA, 2.08 WHIP and a rough .413 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 4.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .265 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. Additionally, the Over is 24-9-5 in the Mets’ last 38 games at home.
Los Angeles (78-32) has now won twelve of their last thirteen contests. The Over is 19-6-1 in the Dodgers’ last 26 games against teams with a losing record. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 third games to a series. They counter with Hyun-Jin Ryu who is 3-6 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.25 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .293 opponent’s batting average in seven starts as compared to his 3.51 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average in eight starts (and nine games) at home. The Dodgers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Ryu faces a Mets offense that does liven up to score 5.2 Runs-Per-Game when playing at night. Lastly, in the last 4 games between these two teams, the game finished Over the Total all 4 times. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Steven Matz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-05-17 |
Brewers v. Rays UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (979) and the Tampa Bay Rays (980) listing both starting pitchers Zack Davies and Alex Cobb. Milwaukee (57-53) has won three of their last four games after taking the opening game of this series last night by a 2-0 score. The Brewers are surviving despite swinging cold bats right now. They have not scored more than four runs in each of their last eight games — and they managed to plate for runners four times just once during that span. Not only has Milwaukee then played 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to score more than four runs in at least three straight games but they have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to score more than four runs for at least five straight contests. Additionally, the Brewers have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a game where four or less combined runs were scored. Furthermore, Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in Interleague play. The Brewers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Davies tonight who is 12-5 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this season. After surviving a horrible April, the right-hander has settled down to pitch quite well albeit under the radar of many. Over his last seven starts, he has not allowed more than three earned runs in five of those occasions — posting a sparkling 2.74 ERA along with a 1.13 WHIP over that span. Davies has also been much better away from home for the entire season given his 2.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts on the road as compared to his 6.15 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and .304 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts at home. The Brewers have played 9 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total.
Tampa Bay (57-53) saw their three game winning streak snapped after being shut out last night. The Rays have now played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Rays have not allowed more than four runs in four straight games — and they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where they did not allow more than four earned runs. They counter with Alex Cobb who is 9-7 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.23 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been very tough at home where he has a 2.59 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as opposed to his 4.94 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .288 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with Cobb facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Brewers team that has played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Over their last seven games, Milwaukee is scoring only 2.3 Runs-Per-Game with a low .194 batting average along with a .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .575 over that span. Lastly, in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Tropicana Field, the game finished Under the Total all 6 times. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (979) and the Tampa Bay Rays (980) listing both starting pitchers Zack Davies and Alex Cobb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-30-17 |
Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Los Angeles (77-31) has won seven straight games with their 2-1 win over the Giants yesterday. The Dodgers finish out their ten-game home stand tonight — and they have played a decisive 38 of their last 59 home games Under the Total after playing at least five straight games at home. Los Angeles has also played 26 of their last 36 home games Under the Total as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Ryu who is 3-6 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.10 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .268 opponent’s batting average in seven starts (eight games) at home as compared to his 4.25 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .293 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. The Dodgers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Ryu pitching on five days of rest. He should fare well against this Giants team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers.
San Francisco (40-65) has lost four of their last six games. Moving forward, the Giants have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They counter with Madison Bumgarner who is getting the start for this nationally televised game after bumping Matt Cain from the rotation for one day for this appearance. Bumgarner is pitching on his normal rest after throwing 80 pitches in his last start. For his abbreviated season after his stint on the disabled list after that motor bike incident, the left-hander has a 1-4 record along with a 3.38 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Bumgarner has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 4.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .257 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home. The Giants have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Bumgarner on the mound. Bumgarner should be focused to pitch very well tonight. As it is, the Under is 8-3-1 in San Fran’s last 12 roads games when pitching in LA against the Dodgers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-30-17 |
Braves v. Phillies OVER 9 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 1:35 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (953) and the Philadelphia Phillies (954) listing both starting pitchers R.A. Dickey and Vince Velasquez. Atlanta (48-54) has lost six of their last seven games with their 4-3 loss to the Phillies last night. The Braves have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss. Atlanta has also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road. They give the ball to Dickey who is 6-7 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season. The right-handed knuckleballer has not been as effective on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.68 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 3.33 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .258 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts at home. The Over is 4-1-1 in the Braves’ last 6 road games with Dickey pitching as an underdog. Dickey faces a red hot Phillies’ offense that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .275 batting average along with a .333 On-Base Percentage and .807 OPS during that span.
Philadelphia (37-64) has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a victory. And while the Braves only strand 6.76 runners on base per game, the Phillies have played 27 of their last 42 games Over the Total in the second-half of the season against teams that do not strand more than 6.9 runners per game. They counter with Vince Velasquez who is 2-6 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.47 WHIP this season. The right-hander has struggled particularly at home where he has a 6.82 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and .306 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his 4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .236 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Velasquez on the mound. Lastly, the Braves have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB NL East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (953) and the Philadelphia Phillies (954) listing both starting pitchers R.A. Dickey and Vince Velasquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-26-17 |
Cubs v. White Sox UNDER 10 |
Top |
8-3 |
Loss |
-101 |
7 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (977) and the Chicago White Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and James Shields. The Cubs (52-47) are playing much better baseball having won nine of their last eleven games with their 7-2 victory over the White Sox last night. The Under is then 13-5-1 in the Cubs’ last 19 games after a win. The Cubbies have also played 12 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total — and this includes playing eight of their last eleven road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Much of the defending World Series’ success as of late can be attributed to improved starting pitching with Arrieta being one of the key contributors. In his four starts this month, the right-hander has a 2.13 ERA. And over his last two starts on the road, Arrieta has allowed only one earned run in 13 2/3 innings of work. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with Arrieta on the hill. He should fare well against this slumping White Sox team that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game with a low .251 batting average along with a .290 On-Base Percentage and .656 OPS over their last seven games.
The White Sox (39-58) host the next two games of this four-game home-and-home cross-town series. They have not only played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss but they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 3-0-1 in the White Sox’s last 4 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with James Shields who is 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season. The right-hander has struggled in his six starts since returning from the disabled list — but he has pitched better at home in Comiskey Park. The White Sox have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total at home with Shields making the start. It is Shields’ presence on the mound tonight that has helped push the Total to 9.5 to 10 for this contest. But the Cubs hit only .236 against right-handed starting pitchers with a low .307 On-Base Percentage. The Cubs have played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Under is 5-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB ESPN Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the gam between the Chicago Cubs (977) and the Chicago White Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and James Shields. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-24-17 |
Orioles v. Rays OVER 9 |
Top |
5-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (963) and the Tampa Bay Rays (964) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gaussian and Blake Snell. Baltimore (47-51) looks to build off their 9-7 victory over the Astros yesterday afternoon. The Orioles have then played 6 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Baltimore has played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They send out Gausman who is 6-7 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.75 WHIP this season. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.98 ERA, 2.01 WHIP and .351 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road as compared to his 5.05 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and .291 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts at home. The Orioles have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total with Gausman pitching as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. And while Gausman comes off a nice outing where he allowed just one earned run in 6 innings of work at home against the Rangers, Baltimore has then played 4 of their lease 5 games Over the Total with Gausman on the hill looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Rays team that scores 4.9 Runs-Per-Game at home and who have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
Tampa Bay (51-48) has lost four straight games with their 6-5 loss to the Rangers yesterday. The Rays have then played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 11 straight games at home Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 47 games as an underdog, the Rays have played a decisive 30 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Blake Snell who is 0-5 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for things to immediately get even worse with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.48 and 5.32 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either given his 5.40 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and .266 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 4.72 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and .246 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Snell on the hill. He faces a red hot Orioles offense that is scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .326 batting average along with a .382 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .926 over that span. Lastly, the Orioles have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB AL East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (963) and the Tampa Bay Rays (964) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gaussian and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-22-17 |
Tigers v. Twins OVER 10.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (969) and the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Zimmermann and Kyle Gibson. Detroit (43-51) has won five of their last seven games with their 6-3 victory in the first game of this series. The Tigers are swinging hot bats: over their last seven games, they are scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game with a .313 batting average along with a .382 On-Base Percentage and an .884 OPS. The Tigers have played 28 of their last 45 games on the road Over the Total. And in their last 18 games against fellow AL Central opponents, the Over is 11-5-2. They send out Zimmermann who is 6-7 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.49 WHIP this season. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.29 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and .307 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 4.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .280 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Tigers’ last 4 road games with Zimmermann on the mound. He faces a Twins team that has scored 4.9 Runs-Per-Game this season against right-handed starting pitchers.
Minnesota (48-46) has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss. The Twins’ bullpen has been overworked by pitching 13 innings over their last three games — and they have then played a decisive 17 of their last 20 home games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 13 innings over a three-game stretch. Furthermore, the Over is 15-7-2 in Minnesota’s last 24 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They counter with Kyle Gibson who is 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.76 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been hit hard when at home where he has been saddled with a 7.20 ERA, 1.98 WHIP and .352 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 5.31 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and .264 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. The Over is 10-3-1 in the Twins’ last 14 home games with Gibson on the mound. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Gibson on the mound. Lastly, the Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. 25* MLB AL Central Total Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (969) and the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Zimmermann and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-21-17 |
Padres v. Giants OVER 7 |
Top |
12-9 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (913) and the San Francisco Giants (914) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Jeff Samardzija. San Diego (41-54) won the opening game of this series last night by a 5-2 score. The Padres have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also a decisive 19-5-2 in San Diego’s last 26 games against fellow NL West opponents. And in their last 4 road games against teams with a losing record at home, the Over is 3-0-1. They give the ball to Cahill who is 4-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he has a 0.72 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and .169 opponent’s batting average in four starts — but those numbers explode to a 5.01 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .279 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. That is not a good sign when facing this Giants team that has seen the Over go 4-1-2 in their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Furthermore, the Padres have played a decisive 29 of their last 43 games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range.
San Francisco (37-60) has seen the Over go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a loss. The Over is also 5-0-1 in the Giants’ last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the Over is 7-2-2 in San Francisco’s last 11 home games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 42 home games when listed as a big money-line favorite in the -151 to -200 price range, the Giants have played 28 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Jeff Samardzija who is 4-11 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP this season. The right-hander was not as effective at home last year for the Giants where he had a 1.28 WHIP and .262 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 1.14 WHIP and .238 opponent’s batting average on the road. This season, Samardjzija has a 1.20 WHIP at home as compared to his 1.15 WHIP when on the road. Of graver concern is that Samardzija is given up too many gopher balls. He has surrendered ten home runs in his last seven starts. Over his last two starts, Samardzija has been saddled with a 7.62 ERA along with a 1.73 WHIP. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Samardzija on the mound. He faces a Padres team that has played 5 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (913) and the San Francisco Giants (914) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Jeff Samardzija. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-19-17 |
Padres v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 |
Top |
4-18 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 3:10 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (905) and the Colorado Rockies (906) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Richard and Jon Gray. Colorado (55-41) has won three straight games after their 9-7 victory over the Padres yesterday. The Total is elevated to the 11.5 range for this afternoon Getaway Game — but the Rockies have still played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home in Coors Field. Colorado has also played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total in the month of July. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Rockies’ last 6 games against NL West opponents. They send out Gray who is 2-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.81 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics do call for immediate improvement in Gray’s numbers with a drop of more than 1 1/2 earned runs allowed per outing with his SIERA and xFIP of 4.47 and 4.03. The right-hander has been much better at home where he enjoys a 2.45 ERA as compared to his 9.00 ERA when on the road. The Rockies have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Gray on the mound. He should fare well against this Padres team that has played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
San Diego (40-53) has played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. The Padres have also played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total. And in their last 32 games as an underdog of at least +150 with the money-line, San Diego has played 21 of these games Under the Total. They counter with Clayton Richard who is 5-9 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.88 ERA along with a 1.39 WHIP in nine starts as compared to his 5.49 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in ten starts at home. The Padres have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Richard on the mound. He faces a Colorado team that has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Furthermore, the Under is 5-2-2 in the Rockies’ last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, in the last 6 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 5 times. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (905) and the Colorado Rockies (906) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Richard and Jon Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-18-17 |
Dodgers v. White Sox UNDER 9 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (975) and the Chicago White Sox (976) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Miguel Gonzalez. Chicago (38-52) has lost four straight games after their 7-6 loss to Seattle on Sunday. The White Sox are slumping with their bats — over their last seven games, they are scoring just 3.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .211 batting average along with a .259 On-Base Percentage and a .628 OPS. That is not a good sign when having to face Kershaw tonight. As it is, Chicago is hitting only .198 over their last five games — and they have then played 13 of their last 14 home games Under the Total after not hitting at least .200 in their last five games. The White Sox have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Under is 3-1-2 in Chicago’s last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Gonzalez who is 4-8 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.98 ERA along with a 1.26 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average in five starts at home as compared to his 5.94 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and .313 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. The White Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Gonzalez facing a team with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 4 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. And in their last 11 games against a right-handed starting pitcher, the Under is 7-2-2.
Los Angeles (64-29) has won nine straight games with their 3-2 win in Miami on Sunday. The Angels have then seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a victory. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the Marlins’ last 5 games on the road. And in their last 7 games in Interleague play, the Under is 5-1-1. They give the ball to their ace Clayton Kershaw who is 14-2 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.88 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been sensational over his last thirteen starts where he is a perfect 10-0 with a 1.98 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .187 while striking out 115 batters and issues only 15 walks over that span. Kershaw has been more effective on the road where he has a 1.79 ERA in eight starts as comported to his 2.45 ERA in eleven starts at home. The Dodgers have seen the Under go 14-6-1 in their last 21 road games with Kershaw on the mound. Lastly, the White Sox have played 4 straight home games Under the Total in Interleague play against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (975) and the Chicago White Sox (976) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Miguel Gonzalez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-04-17 |
Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 9 |
Top |
11-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 12 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (969) and the Texas Rangers (970) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Yu Darvish. Boston (48-35) has won five games in a row with their 7-5 victory over the Rangers last night. The Red Sox are swinging hot bats right now: over their last seven games, they are scoring 7.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .308 batting average along with an On-Base Percentage of .401 and an OPS of .859. Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road. The Red Sox have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They send out Price who is 3-2 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.27 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.32 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and .244 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road as compared to his 3.79 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home. Boston has played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with Price on the mound. And while Price comes off a solid outing where he allowed three earned runs in 7 innings of work against the Twins, the Red Sox have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total with Price looking to follow up a Quality Start.
Texas (40-43) has now lost two straight games as well as five of their last six games. The Rangers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Texas has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, not only is the Over 15-5-1 in the Rangers’ last 21 games at home but the Over is also a decisive 37-15-4 in Texas’ last 56 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Yu Darvish who is 6-6 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics do call for immediate regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.86 and 3.79 moving forward. Dervish has not been nearly as effective at home either where he has a 3.81 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .216 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 2.32 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .191 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. The Over is 5-0-2 in the Rangers’ last 7 home games with Darvish on the hill. Lastly, the Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (969) and the Texas Rangers (970) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-25-17 |
Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
4-8 |
Loss |
-103 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Chad Kuhl and Mike Leake. Pittsburgh (35-40) has won the opening two games of this series after their 7-3 victory yesterday. The Pirates have then played 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a victory. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. And despite looking to secure the sweep tonight, this Pirates team is hitting just .158 over their last three games. Pittsburgh has played a decisive 33 of their last 48 games Under the Total when hitting no better than .175 in their last three games. They give the ball to Kuhl who is 2-6 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.55 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective when pitching on the road where he owns a 3.45 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his rough 7.36 ERA, 1.76 WHIP and .299 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home. These disparate home/road split stats are consistent with last season where he enjoyed a 2.72 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 7.03 ERA, 1.93 WHIP and .330 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Pirates have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with Kuhl pitching with four days of rest.
St. Louis (33-40) has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Cardinals have not scored more than three runs in three straight games — and they have played a decisive 64 of their last 107 home games Under the Total after failing to score at least four runs in three straight contests. Over their last five games, the Cards are hitting just .216 themselves — so this Sunday Night battle on ESPN involves two teams struggling to scratch out base hits. St. Louis counters with Mike Leake who is 5-6 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP this season. St. Louis has played 4 straight games Under the Total with Leake facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Pittsburgh team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Pirates have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Sunday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Chad Kuhl and Mike Leake. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-24-17 |
Tigers v. Padres OVER 8.5 |
Top |
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (979) and the San Diego Padres (980) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Dinelson Lamet. San Diego (30-44) won the opening game of this series last night by a 1-0 score. The Padres have not allowed more than four runs in five straight games — but they have then played 19 of their last 25 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight contests. San Diego has also played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price range. Furthermore, the Over is 6-2-1 in the Padres’ last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 7 games in Interleague play, the Over is 5-1-1. They send out their 24-year old rookie Lamet who is 2-2 with a 7.50 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP this season. Lamet has not been as effective at home in Petco Park where he has been saddled with a 8.10 ERA and .262 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 7.07 ERA and .222 opponent’s batting average when on the road.
Detroit (32-41) has now lost seven straight games — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after losing at least three straight games. Additionally, the Tigers have played 9 of their last 10 road games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less. Detroit has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against an opponent that did not score more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Tigers’ bullpen only pitched 1 inning last night — and they have played 21 of their last 27 road gams Over the Total after a game did not pitch more than 1 inning in their last game. They send out Anibal Sanchez who is 0-0 with a 7.96 ERA and 1.96 WHIP this season. The 33-year old veteran was OK in his first start of the season on Monday in what ended up being a 6-2 loss for the Tigers. Sanchez has lost over a MPH on his fastball which helped explain his 5.87 ERA and 1.46 WHIP last season along with the 21 earned runs he surrendered in 21 innings of work out the bullpen for Detroit this season. The right-hander was demoted to the minor leagues for a bit this season where he continued to be hit hard with a 4.60 ERA in 15 2/3 innings of work. The Over is 18-6-3 in the Tigers’ last 27 road games with Sanchez on the mound. He faces a San Diego team that has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Lastly, the Over is 3-1-1 in the Padres’ last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (979) and the San Diego Padres (980) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Dinelson Lamet. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-17 |
Astros v. A's OVER 9 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (925) and the Oakland A’s (926) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Sean Manaea. Houston (48-24) has won two straight games after their 6-2 victory over the A’s last night. The Astros have then seen the Over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a win. The Over is also 10-4-3 in Houston’s last 17 games on the road. They send out Fiers who is 4-2 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been even less effective in his seven starts on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.40 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .268 as compared to his 2.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average when at home. These disparate home/road split stats are consistent with last season where Fiers had a 4.99 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .289 opponent’s batting average on the road as compared to the modest improvements of a 4.09 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .273 opponents batting average when he was pitching at home. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Astros’ last 4 road games with Fiers facing a team with a losing record. He faces an Oakland team that has seen the Over go 10-4-1 in their last 15 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-1-1 in the A’s last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
Oakland (31-40) has seen the Over go a decisive 20-4-2 in their last 26 games after a loss. The A’s have also played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Sean Manaea who is 6-3 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been as effective in his six starts at home where he has a 1.24 WHIP and .213 opponent’s batting average as opposed to his 0.98 WHIP and .186 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. The Over is 4-1-1 in Oakland’s last 6 home games with Manaea on the mound. He faces a Houston team that has played 5 of their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. And in their last 7 games against starting pitchers, the Over is 5-1-1 for the Astros. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break NL West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (925) and the Oakland A’s (926) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Sean Manaea. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-17-17 |
Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 9 |
Top |
1-7 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 46 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (925) and the Houston Astros (926) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and David Paulino. Boston (38-29) has won four of their last five games with their 2-1 win over the Astros last night. The Red Sox have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, after Chris Sale’s complete game shutout on Thursday, Boston’s bullpen has pitched only 2 1/3 innings over the last two days — and they have then played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not having their bullpen pitch more than 3 innings of work in each of their last two games. And with the Red Sox having won six of their last eight games, they have then played 22 of the last 30 road games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eighth games. The Under is also 3-1-1 in Boston’s last 5 games on the road. They send out Porcello who is 3-8 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.51 WHIP this season. It has been a disappointing start for the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner — but the deeper sabermetrics strongly suggest that better times are coming. The right-hander’s BABIP (Batting Average for Balls In Play) of .366 is the highest of all qualifying pitchers and should drop (along with his opponent’s batting average). Porcello is enjoying his best strikeout rate in his career. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.09 and 4.23 moving forward. Porcello has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.76 ERA as compared to his 5.40 ERA when at home. The under is also 3-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 4 games with Porcello pitching with four days of rest.
Houston (45-23) has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss. The Astros have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against an opponent that allowed two or less runs in their last contest. Furthermore, the Under is a decisive 33-13-6 in Houston’s last 52 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with David Paulino who is 0-6 with a 6.59 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in three starts this season. The sabermetrics do indicate that the right-hander should be seeing much better results with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.84 and 4.13 moving forward from his deeper peripherals numbers. In three levels of the minor leagues last season, Paulino had a 2.00 ERA along with a 106:19 strikeout to walk ratio in 90 innings of work. Boston has seen the Under go 3-0-2 in their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Under is 3-0-2 in the Red Sox’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Saturday Night Fox-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (925) and the Houston Astros (926) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and David Paulino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-11-17 |
Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 |
Top |
1-11 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (912) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Robbie Ray. Arizona (37-26) has won four of their last five games with their 3-2 victory over the Brewers yesterday. The Diamondbacks have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a victory. Additionally, the Over is 23-9-2 in Arizona’s last 34 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Over is a decisive 50-22-3 in the Diamondbacks’ last 75 games at home — and that includes playing twenty of their last twenty-seven home games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5-10 range. They send out Ray who is 6-3 with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. The right-hander has allowed only one earned run in his last 30 1/3 innings of work — but the deeper sabermetrics call for regression. Both Ray’s SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.48 and 3.44 respectively moving forward. Ray has also not been as effective at home where he has a 5.67 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his microscopic 0.64 ERA along with a 0.76 WHIP and .134 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. The Diamondbacks have played 16 of their last 21 road games Over the Total with Ray on there mound. That bodes for trouble when facing this Brewers team that has played 13 of their last 16 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
Milwaukee (33-29) has played 15 of their last 20 road games Over the Total when looking to avenge a loss by just one run. The Brewers have also played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total when facing a team with a winning record. And in their last 46 games as an underdog, Milwaukee has played 28 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Chase Anderson who is 5-1 with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this season. The right-hander enters this game with a scoreless innings streak of 21 2/3rds. But given Anderson’s 4.30 SIERA and 4.33 xFIP, expect regression in his performances. Furthermore, Anderson has struggled on the road where he has a 4.36 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .266 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his 1.69 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and .218 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. The Over is 7-2-1 in the Brewers last 10 road games against teams with a winning record. Lastly, the Diamondbacks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (912) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Robbie Ray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-02-17 |
Indians v. Royals UNDER 9 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (973) and the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Josh Tomlin and Jason Vargas. Cleveland (28-24) has won four of their last five games with their 8-0 victory over the A’s yesterday. The Under is then 26-10-2 in the Indians’ lat 38 games after a victory. The Under is also 17-6-3 in Cleveland’s last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record, the Under is 7-2-1. They send out Tomlin who is 3-6 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics project better times for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.04 and 3.75 respectively moving forward. Tomlin has been more effective on the road where he owns a strong 1.13 WHIP as compared to his 1.44 WHIP along with a 6.19 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .321 when pitching at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Tomlin had a 4.31 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road as compared to his 4.50 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .283 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Under is 6-1-2 in the Indians’ last 9 games on the road. He should fare well against this Royals’ team that has played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Tomlin also loves to pitch against Kansas City — he is 10-4 with a 3.94 ERA in 23 career appearances which includes 19 starts against the Royals.
Kansas City (22-30) has lost three of their last four games with their 6-5 loss to the Tigers on Wednesday. The Royals have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 15-5-1 in KC’s last 221 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Jason Vargas who is 6-3 with a 2.39 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in ten starts this season. The left-hander has been even better at home where he owns a 2.05 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 2.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. Kansas City has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with Vargas on the mound — and that includes playing five of their last six games Under the Total against teams with a winning record in those circumstances. He should fare well against this Indians team that has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP no higher than 1.10. The Under is also 19-7-1 in Cleveland’s last 28 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 120-39-10 combined angle for this situation. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League Central Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (973) and the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Josh Tomlin and Jason Vargas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-17 |
Mets v. Pirates OVER 7.5 |
Top |
8-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (903) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (904) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Chad Kuhl. Pittsburgh (22-26) has seen their bats awaken over the last two games as they have scored 21 runs over that span while belting six home runs in their four-game series against the Braves. The Pirates have won two straight games with their 9-4 win in Atlanta last night. Pittsburgh has then seen the Over go 9-4-2 in their last 15 games after a victory. The Over is also 5-1-1 in the Pirates’ last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. And in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road, the Over is 6-2-1. They send out Kuhl who is 1-4 with a 5.85 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has been hit hard in his five starts home this year where he has been saddled with an 8.20 ERA, 2.09 WHIP and .329 opponent’s batting average as compared to his solid 3.80 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .259 opponent’s batting average when on the road. These disparate home/road splits are entirely consistent with last season where Kuhl had a 7.03 ERA, 1.93 WHIP and .330 opponent’s batting average at home but a strong 2.72 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Pirates have played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with Kuhl on the mound.
New York (19-26) enters this series have lost two straight games with their 4-3 loss to the Padres last night. The Over is then 19-6-4 in the Mets’ last 29 games after a loss. The Over is also 9-1-2 in the opening games of a new series. Additionally, the over is 22-8-2 in New York’s last 32 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 18 games on the road, the Over is 13-3-2. They counter with DeGrom who is 3-1 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective in his five starts on the road where he has a 4.65 ERA along with a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .262 as compared to his 2.19 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .202 opponent’s batting average when at home. These disparate home/road split stats are consistent with last year where DeGrom had a 4.16 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .312 on the road as compared to his 2.11 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .201 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Mets have played 4 straight road games Over the Total with DeGrom on the mound. Furthermore, the Over is 11-5-3 in New York’s last 19 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (903) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (904) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Chad Kuhl. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-24-17 |
Marlins v. A's OVER 8.5 |
Top |
1-4 |
Loss |
-130 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (923) and the Oakland A’s (924) listing both starting pitchers Edison Volquez and Sonny Gray. Miami (16-28) opened this series with a 10-8 victory over the A’s last night. The Marlins have then seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 18-7-2 in Miami’s last 27 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. And in their last 15 road games against American League opponents, the Marlins have played 12 of these games Over the Total. They send out Volquez who is 0–6 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been less effective on the road in five starts where he has a 5.26 ERA and a rough opponent’s batting average of .303 as compared to his 4.20 ERA and .222 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home this season. These disparate home/road split stats are consistent with last year where Volquez had an uninspiring 5.11 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and .285 opponent’s batting average at home with all those numbers even worse on the road to a 5.71 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and .287 opponent’s batting average. That does not bode well when facing this Oakland team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Furthermore, the A’s have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
Oakland (20-25) has lost two straight games — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss. The A’s have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Oakland has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on their home field. They counter with Sonny Gray who is 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 1.31 WHIP and .262 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 1.17 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Last season, Gray had a 5.80 ERA and .295 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his more modest 5.57 ERA and .275 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Gray on the mound. And while Gray comes off a technical Quality Start where he allowed three earned runs in 6 innings of work at home against the Red Sox, Oakland has seen the Over go 12-3-1 in their last 16 games with Gray looking to follow up a Quality Start. Lastly, the Over is 18-5-5 in the Marlins’ last 28 games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (923) and the Oakland A’s (924) listing both starting pitchers Edison Volquez and Sonny Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-21-17 |
Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
109 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (965) and the Detroit Tigers (966) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Matthew Boyd. Detroit (21-20) closes out this series tonight after their 9-3 win over the Rangers in the second game of this series. The Tigers have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a victory. Detroit has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road, the Under is 18-5-3. They send out Boyd who is 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP this season. The left-hander is looking to redeem himself from a bad outing where he allowed seven earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of work against the Orioles on Tuesday. Boyd has been respectable at home where he has a 1.30 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .241 — it is on the road where he has really struggled with a 1.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .329. Detroit has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Boyd pitching with four days of rest. He should pitch better tonight against this Rangers team that has played 4 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
Texas (23-21) counters with Yu Darvish who is 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.23 ERA as compared to a 2.97 ERA when at home. Those results are consistent with last season where Darvish had a 2.28 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .185 opponent’s batting average on the road as compared to his 4.26 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .235 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Under is 4-1-2 in the Rangers’ last 7 games on the road with Darvish facing a team with a winning record. The Under is also a decisive 49-27-10 in Texas’ last 86 games with Darvish on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Lastly, while the Tigers have an unappealing 5.31 ERA from their bullpen this season, Texas has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.20 or higher. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (965) and the Detroit Tigers (966) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Matthew Boyd. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-18-17 |
Blue Jays v. Braves OVER 8 |
Top |
9-0 |
Win
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100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (919) and the Atlanta Braves (920) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Julio Teheran. Atlanta (16-21) has won three straight games — as well as five of their last six — with their 8-4 win versus the Blue Jays in the first game in Atlanta of this two-game home-and-home series with Toronto. The Braves have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 20-7-1 in Atlanta’s last 28 home games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 5 games in Interleague play, the Braves have played 4 of these games Over the Total. The team received bad news this afternoon with the announcement that Freddie Freeman would miss 8-12 weeks after being beaned in the wrist last night in this heated series. But this team will need to score runs tonight with Julio Teheran taking the hill after surrendering six home runs, 22 hits and seven bases-on-balls in his last three starts in Atlanta. For the season, the right-hander is 3-3 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP this year — but he sees those numbers explode at home with an 8.14 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310 in four starts. The Braves have played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with Teheran on the hill. That is not a good sign against this Toronto team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Blue Jays have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
Toronto (17-24) has allowed 27 runs while losing three straight games. The Blue Jays have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss. Toronto has also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road. They counter with Marcus Stroman who is 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not quite been as good on the road where he has a 3.44 ERA as compared to his 3.27 ERA when at home. This is consistent with last season where Stroman had a 1.26 WHIP and .259 opponent’s batting average at home but saw those numbers rise to a 1.32 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average on the road. Stroman comes off a nice outing where he allowed two runs at home in 6 innings against the Mariners — but the Blue Jays have then played 4 straight games Over the Total with Stroman looking to follow up a Quality Start. The Braves have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. And in their last 40 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Over is 27-10-3. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (919) and the Atlanta Braves (920) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Julio Teheran. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-06-17 |
Marlins v. Mets OVER 9 |
Top |
3-11 |
Win
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100 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the New York Mets (908) listing both starting pitchers Odrisamer Despaigne and Robert Gsellman. New York (13-15) has won five of their last seven games with their 8-7 win last night in the opening game of this series. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Mets’ last 5 games after a win — and the Over is a decisive 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. And in their last 32 games after allowing at least five runs, the Over is 21-8-3. Additionally, the Over is 16-5-2 in New York’s last 23 games at home — and they have played thirteen of their last sixteen games Over the Total at home against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, the Over is 19-4-3 in the Mets’ last 27 games against fellow NL East opponents. They send out Gsellman who is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home so far as he owns a 1.76 WHIP and .329 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home as compared to his 1.15 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Mets have played 5 straight home games Over the Total with Gsellman on the mound. Miami has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Marlins have also seen the Over go 17-5-4 in their last 26 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Miami (12-16) has now lost four of their last five games — and the Over is now 8-3-1 in their last 12 games against NL East opponents. The Over is also 6-2-1 in the Marlins’ last 9 games on the road. And in Miami’s last 16 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home, the Marlins have played 13 of these games Over the Total. They called up Odrisamer Despaigne from Triple-A for the injured Wei-Yin Chen. Despaigne had 0-2 record with a 5.93 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 30 1/3 innings last season all in relief. The Padres tried him as a starting pitcher in 2014 and 2015 before giving up on the right-handed. In 2015, Despaigne had a 6.90 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and .315 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Last year in relief, Despaigne had a 6.61 ERA, 1.90 WHIP and .323 opponent’s batting average when away from home. Too many walks and not enough strikeouts is the rap on Despaigne — and his 13 bases-on-balls with only 9 Ks in 17 2/3 innings of work in the minors this season does not inspire confidence that either issue has improved. The Over is 14-4-3 in the Mets’ last 21 games against a right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams when playing in New York. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the New York Mets (908) listing both starting pitchers Odrisamer Despaigne and Robert Gsellman. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-29-17 |
Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 |
Top |
7-6 |
Win
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100 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (959) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (960) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Zack Greinke. Colorado (15-9) won the opening game of this series last night by a 3-1 score. The Rockies have now played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They send out Anderson who is 1-3 with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in five starts this season. Zero of these five starts qualified as Qualified Starts for Anderson as his lack of an effective breaking pitch has significantly reduced his reliability. Last season, the left-hander had a 5-6 record with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP — but those numbers rose to a 4.71 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP when on the road. The Rockies have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Anderson pitching with four days rest as he does tonight. That is not a good sign when facing this Diamondbacks team that has seen the Over 20-7-2 in their last 29 home games against a left-handed starting pitcher.
Arizona (15-10) has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Diamondbacks have also seen the Over go a decisive 40-14-2 in their last 56 games at home. And in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road, the Over is 5-1-2. They counter with Zack Greinke who is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP this season. The right-hander allowed just one earned run in 6 innings of work in his last start against the Padres. That was the second straight start Greinke got to enjoy against the weak-hitting San Diego team. His ERA was 4.32 this season before those last two outings. Additionally, the Padres have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Greinke on the mound looking to follow up a Quality Start. Lastly, the Rockies have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams using a right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (959) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (960) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-29-17 |
Cubs v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 |
Top |
7-4 |
Win
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100 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
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At 4:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (979) and the Boston Red Sox (980) listing both starting pitchers John Lackey and Steven Wright. Chicago (12-10) looks to bounce-back from a 5-4 loss to the Red Sox last night. The Cubs have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss. Chicago has also played 7 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Cubbies have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They send out Lackey who is 1-3 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP this season. There were signs last season that the 38-year old was about to experience some series regression in his effectiveness. His 34.4% hard contact rate last season was the worst of his career. Lackey was not as effective on the road last year where he had a 4.37 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .234 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average at home at Wrigley Field. This season, Lackey has a rough 6.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP when on the road. Chicago has played 5 straight road games Over the Total with Lackey on the hill.
Boston (12-10) has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in Interleague games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Steven Wright who is 1-2 with an 8.66 ERA and 2.09 WHIP this season. The knuckleballer has simply not been the same since banging up his shoulder after the ill-advised decision was made last September to insert him as a pinch-runner. The right-hander has already served up seven gopher balls. Wright has also been rocked at home in Fenway Park given his 11.05 ERA, 2.45 WHIP and an stunning opponent’s batting average of .447. Wright was not as effective at home last season where he had a 4.54 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .266 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.09 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .200 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Red Sox have seen the Over go 7-0-1 in their last 8 home games with Wright facing a team with a winning record. Boston has also played 4 straight games Over the Total with Wright facing team from the National League. Lastly, the Cubs have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (979) and the Boston Red Sox (980) listing both starting pitchers John Lackey and Steven Wright. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-25-17 |
Mariners v. Tigers OVER 8.5 |
Top |
9-19 |
Win
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100 |
5 h 38 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (971) and the Detroit Tigers (972) listing both starting pitchers Felix Hernandez and Jordan Zimmermann. Seattle (8-12) enters this series coming off an 11-1 win at Oakland on Sunday which was a nice win for Mariners’ bettors who were getting +115 on the money line. The Mariners have then played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after an upset win over a divisional rival. Seattle has also played 13 of their last 18 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They send out Hernandez who is 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP so far this season. The aging right-hander has seen his effectiveness drop as he has been losing velocity. His 3.8 walk rate per 9 innings was the worst of his career. The King was not as effective on the road last year where he was saddled with a 1.49 WHIP and .253 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 1.19 WHIP and .228 opponent’s batting average when at home. This season, Hernandez has a 4.09 ERA along with a dangerous .333 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Mariners have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Seattle has also seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games in Detroit with Hernandez on the mound. That spells trouble when facing this Tigers’ team that has seen the Over go 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Detroit (10-8) has won two straight games after their 13-4 win at Minnesota on Sunday. The Tigers may have a depleted lineup right now due to a handful of injuries — but they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Detroit has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total at home. They send out Jordan Zimmermann who is 1-1 with a 5.94 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP this season. The right-hander saw a big dig in his velocity rate last season which may have coincided with a neck injury that sidelined him for most of last season. In 16 2/3 innings of work have resulted in just 10 Ks which is not a good sign regarding him getting back to the form he had with the Nationals before coming over to the American League. Zimmermann also had a rough 7.00 ERA along with a 1.52 WHIP and .305 opponent’s batting average when at home last season. The Over is 7-1-1 in Detroit’s last 9 home games with Zimmermann on the mound. Lastly, the Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (971) and the Detroit Tigers (972) listing both starting pitchers Felix Hernandez and Jordan Zimmermann. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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