01-05-19 |
Colts v. Texans |
Top |
21-7 |
Loss |
-125 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (102) minus the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (101). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-3 win over Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (10-6) has won four straight games after they defeated the Titans in Tennessee last Sunday night to clinch the final wildcard spot in the AFC. These two teams will be meeting for the third time: the Texans won the first matchup on September 30th by a 37-34 score as a 1-point favorite before the Colts won the rematch on December 9th by a 24-21 upset score despite being a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE HOUSTON MINUS THE POINT(S): This is a tough spot for Indianapolis who stay on the road for the second straight week in a must-win situation. It might be difficult for the Colts to maintain the intensity they needed to bring last Sunday night to defeat the Titans in Nashville. As it is, Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Colts rushed for 158 yards in that game as this has become a team that likes to run the ball to establish their offense. But getting their ground game going will be difficult against this Texans defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL by allowing just 82.7 rushing YPG. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering three of their last four contests. Quarterback Andrew Luck is having a great comeback season but he is leading a team that is just 4-4 on the road this season while scoring 24.2 PPG and averaging 369.4 total YPG — and those numbers are -2.9 PPG and -16.8 YPG below their overall season averages. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games as an underdog getting no more than 3 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. The team is getting relatively healthy for this game with running back Lamar Miller returning to the field last week while rookie slot receiver Keke Coutee (who caught 10 passes in the first encounter with the Colts this year) looks set to finally play again after missing significant time with his hamstring. One of the reasons I give the Texans the edge in this game is they have more established star talent. This is the first season that head coach Bill O’Brien has had the services of defensive ends J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney for the entire season along with linebacker Whitney Mercilus healthy and playing together. I expect defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel will dial up a good scheme in his third opportunity to slow down Luck on offense. Houston also has DeAndre Hopkins who might have enjoyed the best season of all the wide receivers in the NFL simply because he catches everything thrown his way. Second-year DeShaun Watson is also a dynamic player who can match Luck on the field. Home field advantage certainly plays a role in this game as the Texans are 6-2 at home with an average winning margin of +8.9 PPG — and they out-gain their opponents by +52.2 net YPG. Houston’s defense flexes their muscles at home where they hold their visitors to just 17.0 PPG along with only 327.2 YPG. The Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as a favorite laying no more than 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 opportunities to avenge a loss when playing on their home field. While Watson lacks the playoff experience of Luck, the core of this Texans team got playoff experience after winning two straight AFC South titles before injuries derailed their campaign last year. Expect home field advantage to make the difference between these two teams. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Houston Texans (102) minus the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-18 |
Colts v. Titans +5.5 |
Top |
33-17 |
Loss |
-109 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (322) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (321). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-6) has won four straight games with their 25-16 win over Washington last Saturday where they failed to cover the -11.5-point spread they were laying as the favorite. Indianapolis (9-6) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 28-27 win over the Giants as a 10-point favorite. This is a de-facto playoff game for both teams: the victor wins the AFC South title and plays next week in the AFC playoffs while the winner goes home.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: It certainly is tempting to take Andrew Luck with the Colts in this game as he offers a significant edge at the quarterback position over Blaine Gabbert who was named the starter this afternoon after Marcus Mariota was officially ruled out with his stinger injury. This situation is a perfect example why it is often prudent to wait on the decision to invest in certain situations. And after the news of Gabbert being the quarterback, I had to get in the trenches with research to block my natural inclination to want to bet-against this quarterback that has failed to meet his prior expectations. All the while, I have watched most of the betting world take the Colts in this game — and that has compelled me to believe that it looks awfully easy to take that side of the equation right now. Well, let’s not forget that it is this Tennessee team that has the playoff team — and it is this Titans team with the better defense that will also have the benefit of home field and an energetic crowd for this nationally-televised night game. Tennessee is second in the NFL by allowing only 18.0 PPG — and that number drops to just 16.9 PPG when they are playing at home. The Titans have held their last three opponents to a mere 8.0 PPG while limiting them to just 269.0 total YPG. The 16 points that Washington scored last week was the most that this defense has allowed in three straight games. They limited the Skins to just 131 passing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Admittedly, this Tennessee defense is dealing with some tough injuries with defensive lineman Jurrell Casey, cornerback Logan Ryan and linebacker Brian Orakpo all out for this game. With everything at stake, head coach Mike Vrabel will be preaching the “next man up” — and it helps that this team is playing at home with these subs being energized by the crowd. The Titans are 6-1 at home this year with an average winning margin of +6.1 PPG. Tennessee is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as an underdog. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. And in their last 9 games against fellow AFC South opponents, Tennessee has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. This team is further motivated to avenge their ugly 38-10 loss at Indianapolis back on November 18th. The embarrassment of that loss should ensure this team is primed and ready for this game. The Titans have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging a loss where their opponent allowed at least 35 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four touchdowns. Going full circle back to Gabbert, the fact is that he has been a capable professional quarterback since leaving the team that drafted him in Jacksonville. Gabbert completed 11 of 16 passes in relief in that game last month with the Colts albeit in garbage time. Gabbert has won his two starts for this team this season when playing for Mariota. He has completed 18 of 27 passes over his last two appearances for 219 yards for a nice 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average while completing 67% of those passes. He has two TD passes and only one interception in those games. He is capable — but perhaps his presence on the field will ensure that Tennessee commits to pounding the football. Running back Derrick Henry is in the zone right now with 492 rushing yards in his last three games. A decision to use heavy personnel with Henry leading the way can exploit the Colts’ Tampa-2 defense which is a scheme that is vulnerable to teams that decide to run the ball since the onus becomes so important on the weak side linebacker to be the primary help in stopping the rushing attack — and that is rookie Darius Leonard who has played very well this season but it is not quite Derrick Brooks or Lance Briggs at that position. Indianapolis is just 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home. Furthermore, the Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games coming off a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Luck passed for 357 yards last week while leading an offense that gained 402 yards. But Indy has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 300 yards — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. The Colts have been much better at home in Lucas Oil Stadium: on the road, they are just 3-4 while being outscored by -0.4 PPG. Indianapolis had that stinker of a game last month where they were shutout on the road in Jacksonville. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games after winning at least eight of their last ten games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after gaining at least 400 yards.
FINAL TAKE: I recommend holding out as long as possible to see if you can grab a +6 with the Titans — all anything at +4.5 points or higher is nice for this situation. The question is not “who will win this game” — it is whether or not Luck and company cover the point spread they are being required to lay with Mariota out against a team with a great home field edge and an even better defense that is through-the-roof motivated to avenge a loss and get back to the playoffs. The value is all on the side of the Titans given this situation. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (322) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-18 |
Chargers v. Broncos +7.5 |
Top |
23-9 |
Loss |
-140 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (328) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (327). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-9) has lost three straight games with their 27-14 loss at Oakland as a 2.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (11-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with their 22-10 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chargers have clinched a playoff spot and will the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs unless Kansas City gets upset at home against the Raiders as near two-touchdown favorites. Head coach Anthony Lynn may be scoreboard watching and may decide to rest his key starters (like QB Philip Rivers) if things get out of hand at Arrowhead. As it is, I do not expect an easy time of things for this Chargers team that has lost their last five games at Denver. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit loss. There are lingering concerns with this team moving forward after they managed to generate just 198 yards of offense against the Ravens. Over their last three games, the Chargers have averaged just 21.7 PPG along with only 297.7 total YPG. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Some of the issues on offense has been a breakdown with their offensive line. Rivers has been sacked 20 times over their last six games after enduring just 12 sacks in their first nine contests. That is an ominous sign for Rivers when now facing Von Miller and rookie phenom Bradley Chubb on the other side of the line of scrimmage. It is December as well — and the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the last month of the regular season. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after a double-digit loss to an AFC West rival. While this team has been eliminated from the playoffs, they should be motivated to play hard to end their season. It is likely Vance Joseph’s last game as the head coach with John Elway likely to sack him tomorrow. But Joseph is well-liked in the locker room and his players should play hard for him. Quarterback Case Keenum is also playing for his job with it being a disappointing season for after the Broncos signed him as a free agent in the offseason. The team will be without rookie running back Phillip Lindsey who suffered a season-ending wrist injury — but that creates space for their higher-drafted rookie Royce Freeman to show off his skills in this game. While Freeman lacks Lindsey’s pass-catching abilities, he is a tough inside runner — and the team can turn to Dovontae Booker in passing downs. Denver may be down to young players as receiving targets for Keenum but their defense should keep them competitive in this game. The Broncos have allowed their last three visitors to Denver to average just 323.7 total YPG. Their loss to the Raiders on Monday was helped by a -2 net turnover margin along with allowing a 99-yard punt return for a touchdown earlier in the first quarter that took the winds out of their sails. They did out-gain Oakland by +23 net yards in that game. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has suffered three straight upset losses to ruin their season — but they have played much better at home than they have on the road. This is a team that plays up or down to their competition. They should play one of their better games of the season in this one in their last home contest facing a divisional rival that they will be very confident against after they defeated them in LA last month by a 23-22 score. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (328) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (327). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-18 |
Bears v. Vikings UNDER 40.5 |
Top |
24-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (325) and the Minnesota Vikings (326). THE SITUATION: Chicago (11-4) has won three straight games with their 14-9 win at San Francisco last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. The Bears have clinched a playoff spot but have an outside chance to earn a first-round bye with a win in this game accompanied by an LA Rams loss. Minnesota (8-6-1) has won their last two games with their 27-9 win at Detroit as a 6.5-point favorite. The Vikings challenge is simple: win and they are in the playoffs as a Wildcard.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where they failed to score more than 14 points. The Bears offense is scoring only 17.7 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 316.0 total YPG over that span. Chicago also averages just 318.9 total YPG when playing on the road. The Bears have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Chicago managed to rush for just 90 yards against the 49ers — and they have played 26 of their last 39 road games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Bears have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Chicago has held their last three opponents to just 10.7 PPG along with only 272.0 total YPG. The Bears have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in a domed stadium. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, the Vikings have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Now this team returns home where they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Minnesota flexes their defensive muscles back at home where they are allowing just 19.0 PPG along with only 259.1 total YPG. The Vikings have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Over their last three games, Minnesota has allowed these three opponents to score only 15.7 PPG along with totaling a mere 230.0 YPG. Furthermore, the Vikings have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on November 18th where the Bears won at Soldier Field by a 25-20 score. That game finished just above the 44 point Total — but that was before Kevin Stefanski took over as the offensive coordinator which cemented the team’s commitment to run the football. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (325) and the Minnesota Vikings (326). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-18 |
Dolphins v. Bills -4 |
Top |
17-42 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (320) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (319). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-12 loss at New England last Sunday as a 13.5-point underdog. Miami (7-8) has lost two in a row with their 17-7 upset loss at home to Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins are playing out the string with head coach Adam Gase and quarterback Ryan Tannehill likely to lose their jobs after this game. While both those individuals are competing for their next job, their lame duck statuses make this an uninspiring game for the rest of the roster and staff who are likely thinking about their offseason plans. That is not a good way for a team to end a season. As it is, Miami is just 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 games after a point spread loss — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in eight of their last nine games on the road after a point spread loss. The Dolphins are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. To compound matters, Miami has been a dreadful road team this season where they are 1-6 with an average losing margin of -14.0 PPG while being out-gained by -131.9 net YPG. The Dolphins are allowing their home hosts to score 31.1 PPG along with averaging 402.9 total YPG. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road. Furthermore, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Buffalo where they are scoring just 15.2 PPG. Tannehill has struggled in these contests as he is 0-4 in his last four starts at Buffalo while throwing only two touchdown passes and getting sacked 16 times. Unquestionably, the cold weather will bother this Miami team — they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. While they rank 30th in the NFL by averaging 294.2 total YPG, that number has dropped to just 262.7 total YPG over their last three games. The Dolphins defense also ranks 30th in the league by allowing 391.7 total YPG. Those abysmal numbers explain why Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 51 games in the last two weeks of the regular season, the Dolphins has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of these contests. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games after a loss where they covered the point spread as the underdog. And while that was the first point spread cover for the Bills in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. This Buffalo team sports an outstanding defense as they rank 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 298.7 total YPG — and that number drops to only 291.6 total YPG when playing at home. This team has plenty to play for as they want to use this game as a building block into next season behind their rookie quarterback Josh Allen. Head coach Sean McDermott is underrated — not only has he overseen the development of a strong defense but he also gets his team ready to play against divisional rivals. While Buffalo lacks offensive weapons, they are averaging 371.2 YPG in their six games against AFC East rivals which is over 80 YPG above their season average. The Bills also hold their divisional opponents to just 279.8 total YPG. Buffalo has also covered the point spread in 44 of their last 80 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Defensive lineman Kyle Williams has announced that he will retire after this game — and this added emotional element for this player who has served as the foundation of this defense for years should inspire his teammates to play hard so that he goes out a winner. The Bills will also be motivated by a 21-17 loss in Miami back on December 2nd. Buffalo is moving forward and will remain motivated to have a great game — while this Dolphins team looks to have already moved on. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (320) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-18 |
Jets v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
3-38 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (307) and the New England Patriots (308). THE SITUATION: New England (10-5) enters this game coming off their 24-12 win over Buffalo last Sunday. They need a victory to clinch the second seed in the AFC playoffs which gives them a first-round bye — and a loss by the Chiefs could put them in play to get the top seed in the AFC overall. New York (4-11) is playing out the string after they lost their second straight game as well as their eighth of their last nine contests after their 44-38 loss in overtime at home to Green Bay as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. New England did generate 390 yards of offense in that game — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. With the loss of wide receiver Josh Gordon and the apparent decline of tight end Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are focusing more on their ground game to burn time off the clock to keep their defense off the field. New England held the ball for 35:38 minutes in their win over the Bills. But over their last three games, the Patriots are scoring just 22.3 PPG. They say at home where they have held their seven visitors to just 18.6 PPG along with only 331.0 total YPG. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Bill Belichick’s team is also very stingy on defense against divisional rivals. AFC East opponents are scoring only 14.4 PPG while averaging just 308.8 total YPG against the Patriots this season. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals. And in their last 11 games in the month of December, the Patriots have played 9 of these games Under the Total. New York has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, the Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 35 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Furthermore, New York has played 6 straight games on the road Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Jets did allow the Packers to average 7.2 Yards-Per-Play against them — but they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. New York now goes back on the road to close out their season where they are scoring just 20.3 PPG while averaging a mere 258.9 total YPG. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has had his moments but he lacks weapons at the skill position — and that will make things very easy for a Belichick defense. The Jets have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. New York has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the November 25th meeting between these two teams that the Patriots won by a 27-13 score. The Jets have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home by at least two touchdowns. These two teams have also played 5 straight games Under the Total. With New England wanting the victory before keeping Tom Brady and company healthy for the playoffs, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (307) and the New England Patriots (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-24-18 |
Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
14-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (131) and the Oakland Raiders (132). THE SITUATION: Oakland (3-11) has lost three of their last four games with their 30-16 loss at Cincinnati last week as a 3-point underdog. Denver (6-8) has lost two straight games with their 17-16 upset loss at home against Cleveland two Saturdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, Denver has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. This team is struggling to move the ball down the stretch of the season as they are scoring just 18.0 PPG while averaging only 301.7 Yards-Per-Game. But their defense is keeping them in games as they are holding their opponents to just 15.7 PPG along with only 336.3 total YPG. The Broncos run defense has been quite good as of late as they are holding their opponents to just 79.6 rushing YPG over their last eight games along with only 3.84 Yards-Per-Carry. Denver goes back on the road where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. The Broncos have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Denver has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of December. The Broncos have also seen the Under go 12-3-1 in their last 16 games against AFC opponents with the Under being 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against fellow AFC West foes. Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Raiders did hold the Bengals to just 123 passing yards in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Oakland returns home where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Raiders struggle against good pass rushes as the 48 sacks they have given up is the third most in the league. Denver is 7th in the NFL by producing sacks in 7.8% of their opponents passing plays. Oakland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games played in the month of December.
FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of the Broncos’ 20-19 victory over the Raiders back on September 16th. Oakland has played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge on their minds. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams who both have offenses that can struggle to score double-digits on any given game. 25* AFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (131) and the Oakland Raiders (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-18 |
Chiefs v. Seahawks OVER 54 |
Top |
31-38 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (11-3) looks to bounce-back from their 29-28 upset loss to the Los Angeles Chargers back on December 13th. Seattle (8-6) looks to rebound from their 26-23 upset loss in overtime at San Francisco last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 4 straight games Over the Total after suffering an upset loss — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, Kansas City has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a loss by 3 points or less to a fellow AFC West rival — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. The Chiefs have been basically unstoppable on offense when playing on the road. Kansas City averages 39.3 PPG while generating 459.6 total YPG when playing away from home. Perhaps the Chiefs are this prolific on offense because they have difficulty slowing down the offenses of the home teams. They are allowing their home hosts to score 34.1 PPG while averaging 455.1 total YPG. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been able to raise his level of play away from Arrowhead Stadium as his 28:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio of 28:6 along with a 9.47 Yards-Per-Attempt passing mark on the road are actually better than his 17:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 8.17 YPA at home this season. Kansas City has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total when playing a team with a winning record at home. The Chiefs have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Overs in the month of December. Seattle has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of December. They rushed for 168 yards in their loss to the 49ers — and they should find success with their rushing attack against this Chiefs’ defense that ranks 26th in the NFL in stopping the run. The Seahawks’ reliance on their ground game might be tempting some bettors to lead to them burning the clock which helps produce lower scoring games — but Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Seahawks average 27.2 PPG at home and they are scoring 29.0 PPG over their last three games. But Seattle allows their visitors to average 372.7 total YPH when playing at home. The Seahawks run defense has been faltering as of late with their last six opponents averaging 5.21 Yards-Per-Carry. Seattle has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of December.
FINAL TAKE: The Total of this game is the highest number for Week Sixteen. But with this likely to be a close game with both teams likely to score at least in the high-20s, look for this final score to reach the Over. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-18 |
Texans +2.5 v. Eagles |
Top |
30-32 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (113) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (114). THE SITUATION: Houston (10-4) has won ten of their last eleven games with their 29-22 win in New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. Philadelphia (7-7) has won three of their last four games with their 30-23 win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a +13.5-point underdog last Sunday night.
THE SITUATION: The Eagles found life last week behind Nick Foles as they pulled the shocking upset over the Rams. However, this remains a team ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football and I expect a big emotional letdown for the defending Super Bowl Champions. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Eagles were out-gained by 26 net yards to Los Angeles as they gave up 407 yards in that game but benefited from a +2 net turnover margin. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now the Eagles return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Houston (10-4) should build off their continued momentum after their bad 0-3 start as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Texans are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This team has outscored their last three opponents by +6.6 Points-Per-Game. Houston is 5-2 on the road this season — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles play an inspired game last week behind their Super Bowl MVP — but that effort may have said more about the problems with the Rams than it did about the possibility of another Philly resurgence behind Nick Foles. Look for Houston to pull the upset in this game — but take the points for some insurance. 25* NFL Non-Conference Underdog of the Year with the Houston Texans (113) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-18 |
Ravens v. Chargers UNDER 44 |
Top |
22-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-6) has won four of their last five games with their 20-12 win over Tampa Bay as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (11-3) teaks the field again after their triumphant 29-28 upset win at Kansas City last Thursday where they were a +3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have seen the Under go 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and they have also played nine of their last eleven games Under the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, Los Angeles has played five of their last seven games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 24 of their last 35 home games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Chargers did gain 407 yards against the Chiefs defense — but the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Despite their numbers last week, Los Angeles is averaging only 355.3 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests which is almost 47 YPG below their season average. The Chargers return home where they are holding their opponents to only 297.3 total YPG. LA has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Chargers have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the month of December. Baltimore has played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. Baltimore boasts the best statistical defense in the league that is best in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 18.1 PPG and only 290.2 total YPG. The Ravens are 3rd in the NFL in both run and pass defense — so it is difficult to exploit a weakness. Over their last three games, Baltimore is only allowing 271.0 total YPG — and they have held four of their last five opponents to under 260 yards. But the Baltimore offense manages to score just 21.4 PPG on the road. Rookie Lamar Jackson is playing well as a dual-threat quarterback — but this will be the most challenging defense he has yet played in his young professional career. Jackson has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game so the Chargers may be able to make him one-dimensional. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on grass — and they have played 29 of their last 42 games Under the Total in the last two weeks of the regular season.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers employ the slowest pace on offense in the NFL — and with Malcolm Gordon returning to the field, expect this team to run the ball plenty against this stout Ravens defense. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing since Jackson has taken over at quarterback. This game sets up to be an old-fashioned battle at the line of scrimmage where both coaches will look to impose their will and tire the opposing defenses out. That is a great formula for the Under. 25* NFL Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-17-18 |
Saints v. Panthers +7 |
Top |
12-9 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (332) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (331). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-7) has lost five straight games after their 26-20 upset loss at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (11-2) enters this game coming off a 28-14 win at Tampa Bay last week as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina has had this night circled on their calendar all season as it is their first opportunity to avenge being beaten three by the Saints last year. The Panthers lost both regular-season games to New Orleans before losing in the first round of the playoffs by a 31-26 score on the road in the Superdome. Carolina should play one of their best games of the season as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Panthers remain alive in the NFC playoff hunt but they must win this game tonight. Quarterback Cam Newton is not at full strength as he is dealing with a shoulder issue that is limiting his ability to throw longer passes. Yet going deeper into the numbers, it is the not offense that has been holding this team back. Carolina is averaging only 21.3 PPG in their last three games despite averaging a robust 437.7 Yards-Per-Game over that span — that is almost 60 YPG above their season average. The 393 yards they generated last week against the Browns was the lowest offensive output in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 375 yards in three straight games. The Panthers out-gained Cleveland last week by 50 yards — in fact, they have out-gained their last four opponents despite losing all four games on the scoreboard. Carolina’s run defense is playing quite well at this point of the season. Over their last three games, they are allowing only 60 rushing YPG while holding opposing rushers to just a 3.05 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Carolina returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games. New Orleans has covered the point spread in ten of their last eleven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 40 games after a win on the road against a fellow NFC South rival. Despite their continued success, the New Orleans offense has slowed down a bit as they are averaging only 23.0 PPG along with just 262.0 total YPG over their last three games. Opposing defenses are finding success by focusing on taking away Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara in the passing game to make Drew Brees use his other less-talented passing targets. Defenses are also finding success by going into dime coverage on third down. These defensive adjustments are taking away the Saints explosiveness. Brees has passed for at least 200 yards just once in his last three games — and only six of his passes over those last three games have resulted in more than 20 yards. Lastly, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: Carolina has been snake-bit during their losing streak — they are a better team than their losing record indicates. The Panthers should have a few tricks up their sleeve for this first opportunity to avenge their three losses to the Saints last season which defined their year. New Orleans may win this game — but it is difficult to defeat a divisional rival on the road by this many points that they are laying. 25* NFC South Game of the Year with the Carolina Panthers (332) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-18 |
Eagles v. Rams UNDER 54 |
Top |
30-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Philadelphia Eagles (329) and the Los Angeles Rams (330). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-7) looks to rebound from their 29-23 overtime loss in Dallas last week as a 3.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (11-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with their 15-6 loss in Chicago last Sunday night as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Philly will be turning to Nick Foles at quarterback with Carson Wentz dealing with back issues and likely to be put on the shelf for the rest of this season with their playoff hopes likely dashed. Foles started the first two games of the season with the Eagles scoring only 19 combined points in those two games. Philadelphia will likely to commit to running the football considering that they have won all six of their games this season when they attempt at least 27 rushes. Running the football will also serve to protect their injury-riddled defense that surrendered 576 yards against the Cowboys. The Eagles have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 500 yards in their last game. Philadelphia stayed competitive last week despite only managing to gain 256 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after being out-gained by at least 100 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Rams will likely look to run the football as well after struggling to move the football in the colder weather in Chicago — Todd Gurley ran the ball only 11 times last week. Los Angeles also needs to do better with their run defense after allowing the Bears to rush for 194 yards last week. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Los Angeles returns home where they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Rams have also played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: With Los Angeles big favorites of almost two touchdowns, the Total remains in the low-50s for this game. With both teams running the football, expect this to be a lower-scoring game than expected. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between Philadelphia Eagles (329) and the Los Angeles Rams (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-18 |
Dolphins v. Vikings -7.5 |
Top |
17-41 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (308) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (307). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-6-1) has lost two straight games after their 21-7 loss at Seattle on Monday as a 3-point underdog. Miami (7-6) enters this game still buzzing off the “miracle in Miami” where they scored on a last-second hook-and-ladder play to pull a 34-33 upset over New England as a 9.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should play well this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games after a straight-up loss. Their loss on Monday was preceded by a 24-10 loss in New England the previous week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two straight games by at least two touchdowns. Returning home will help where they are 4-2 while out-gaining their opponents by +91.1 net YPG. The Vikings hold their guests to just 19.3 PPG along with only 270.2 YPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on their home field. There should also be a better atmosphere on the sidelines after head coach Mike Zimmer fired offensive coordinator John DeFilippo and replaced him with Kevin Stefanski. DeFilippo was not a good personality fit with the demanding Zimmer who has a different philosophy. Stefanski is very highly regarded around the league and appears to be a better fit with Zimmer’s style. He takes over an offense for a team that has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games in the month of December. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after an upset win over a divisional rival. Furthermore, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games off a home game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Now the Dolphins go back on the road where they are 1-5 with an average losing margin of -12.3 PPG while being out-gained by -116.3 net YPG. Miami allows their home hosts to score 29.5 PPG while gaining 400.3 total YPG. Defense is a concern for this team as they have surrendered at least 377 yards in four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 375 yards in four straight games. They are allowing 430.3 total YPG over their last three contests. And in their last 11 games on the road, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread 9 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have endured a difficult stretch of games but remain alive in the NFC playoff hunt. Look for them to take out their frustrations on an overachieving Dolphins team that is not very good when playing away from south beach. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (308) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-18 |
Browns v. Broncos -2 |
Top |
17-16 |
Loss |
-123 |
22 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 20-14 loss at San Francisco as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (5-7-1) has won three of their last four games with their 26-20 upset win at home over Carolina last week as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver was caught flat last week after winning three straight games and playing a 49ers team that will be missing the playoffs. But the Broncos have rebounded to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after suffering an upset loss on the road as the favorite. Denver had covered point spread expectations in their three previous games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after covering two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, returning home should help this team. They are playing outstanding run defense right now as they have held their last seven opponents to just a 3.58 Yards-Per-Carry mark song with only 72.7 rushing YPG. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after the first month of the season. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents. Cleveland may be due for a letdown after pulling the upset at home against the reeling Panthers. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. That game finished below the 47.5-point Total — but Cleveland has then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while the Browns have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Cleveland is flirting with danger having lost the turnover battle in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after suffering a -1 or worse turnover battle in two straight games. The Browns defense surrendered 393 yards to Carolina in their victory but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They have allowed their last three opponents to rush for 108 rushing YPG while averaging 5.06 YPC — and those are scary numbers when facing this Broncos team that is 7th in the NFL by averaging 130.2 rushing YPG. Cleveland now plays their third game in their last four contests on the road where they are 1-5 this season while surrendering 29.0 PPG along with 412.2 total YPG. The Browns are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games on the road while failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. And in their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this Browns team to struggle in the high-altitude in Denver where the Broncos typically enjoy a significant home-field advantage. Both those teams remain technically alive in the playoff race — but it is Denver that has a more realistic chance of qualifying for the playoffs if they win their remaining games. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-18 |
Texans v. Jets UNDER 44 |
Top |
29-22 |
Loss |
-103 |
6 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (303) and the New York Jets (304). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 24-21 upset loss to Indianapolis last week where they were a 4-point favorite. New York (4-9) enters this Saturday game coming off a 27-23 upset victory at Buffalo as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans’ offense stalled in that game as they generated only 315 yards at home against the Colts. Houston has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans did limit Indianapolis to just 50 rushing yards in that contest — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last game. Houston is 5th in the NFL by allowing only 88.2 rushing YPG — and they are holding their opponents to just a 3.35 Yards-Per-Carry average. Over their last three games, the Texans allowing only 18.0 PPG. Now after playing their last three games at home, Houston goes on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total when laying 3.5 to 7 points. Furthermore, the Texans have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 31 games played in the month of December, Houston has played 23 of these games Under the Total including nine of their last eleven. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory. Furthermore, the Jets have also played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total after a narrow win by 6 points or less. They did surrender 176 rushing yards to the Bills in that win — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The New York offense is riddled with injuries with running back Isaiah Crowell going on IR with a foot injury and wide receiver Quincy Enunwa being declared out with an ankle. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold is left without much help at the skill positions. He has only passed for 300 yards once in his ten starts and his lead running back is now third-stringer Elijah McGuire. The Jets have scored only 20.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging a mere 288.7 total YPG. Lastly, in their last 15 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored, New York has then played 10 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a low-scoring contest. The Jets’ offense was already limited before their rash of injuries. Houston has evolved into a run-first team to protect their offensive line (it is easier on that group to run block rather than offer pass protection). With the Texans on the road, they will lean even more on the road. 25* NFL Saturday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (303) and the New York Jets (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-13-18 |
Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54 |
Top |
29-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-3) has won three straight games as well as nine of their last ten games with their 26-21 win over Cincinnati as a 17-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (11-2) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-24 win in overtime against Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning their last two games along with having played 7 straight games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games in a row. Los Angeles managed only 85 yards of rushing in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Chargers are hit hard with injuries at running back with Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler listed as doubtful for this game with injuries which will make it difficult for either of them to play on a short week. The team will likely depend on Northwestern rookie Justin Jackson as their lead back tonight. Los Angeles will lean on their defense for this game that is holding their last three opponents to just 260.3 total YPG which has translated into only 20.3 PPG. Overall, the Chargers rank seventh in the NFL by allowing only 331.8 total YPG. They have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing in the month of December — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. Los Angeles has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents. Kansas City is dealing with their own injuries on offense with running back Spencer Ware (replacing Kareem Hunt) and wide receiver Sammie Watkins both doubtful with injuries. The good news for the Chiefs is that it looks like the heart and soul of their defense in safety Eric Berry will make his debut this season after dealing with injuries all season. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home. The Chiefs did surrender 198 rushing yards in that game to the new-look Ravens rushing attack — but they have then played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Kansas City does play much better defense when playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium. They hold their visitors to 356.5 total YPG at home which is -53.1 net YPG below their season average — and they hold their guests to only 18.7 PPG at home as compared to the 33.7 PPG they surrender when playing on the road. The Chiefs have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have also played 11 of their last 15 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. And while the Chiefs have scored at least 26 points in all their games this season, they have then played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Kansas City has generated at least 441 yards of offense in their last three games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in three straight games. And while they have played their last three games Over the Total, the Chiefs have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Kansas City’s 38-28 victory as a 3.5-point road underdog in Week One of this season. In this rematch being played on a short week with both teams on their third-string running back from that initial game, expect a lower-scoring game this time around. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-10-18 |
Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
7-21 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (133) and the Seattle Seahawks (134). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-5-1) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-10 loss at New England as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Seattle (7-5) has won three straight games with their 43-16 win over San Francisco as a 10-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings managed only 278 yards of offense on the road against the Patriots with Minnesota only being on offense for 26:39 minutes of that game. Head coach Mike Zimmer may fire his offensive coordinator mid-game if John DeFilippo does not have his team run the football more tonight after weeks of criticism on this front resulted in a mere 13 rushing attempts last week. The Vikings did run the ball 29 times two weeks ago in their 24-17 win over the Packers — Minnesota needs to embrace this mentality against the Seahawks or risk Seattle being on offense for more than 35 minutes of this game happily burning time off the clock while keeping their defense fresh. As it is, the Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots’ ability to control Time of Possession helped them rack of 471 yards of offense against the Vikings — but Minnesota has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Vikings rank 6th in the NFL with a total defense that allows 327.8 total YPG. Moving forward, the Vikings have played 22 of their last 36 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. And in their last 4 games in the month of December, Minnesota has played all 4 of these games Under the Total. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in their last four games so the Vikings have to be concerned with that they have been able to do on offense. But the Seahawks have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Furthermore, Seattle has played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests. Head coach Pete Carroll has to remain focused on protecting his young defense that gave up 454 yards of offense last week to a 49ers team that generated 386 of those yards in the air. The Seahawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Moving forward, Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: In a game between two teams with playoff aspirations with head coaches with defensive backgrounds, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (133) and the Seattle Seahawks (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-18 |
Rams v. Bears UNDER 51.5 |
Top |
6-15 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (119) and the Chicago Bears (120). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-1) has won three straight games with their 30-16 win at Detroit last week as a 10.5-point favorite. Chicago (8-4) saw their five-game winning streak snapped last week with their 30-27 upset loss in New York to the Giants as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears held the Giants to just 338 yards of offense but were plagued by a -2 net turnover margin which included an 8-yard interception that accounted for the seven of the points that New York scored. Chicago is 4th in the NFL by allowing only 20.1 PPG and just 317.9 rushing YPG. When playing at home in Soldier Field, the Bears see those numbers drop even further to allowing just 19.5 PPG along with only 291.3 total YPG. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Monsters on the Midway have also played 34 of their last 50 games at home Under the Total when an underdog of no more than 3 points. The Bears will be getting Mitchell Trubisky back at quarterback but it remains questionable how effective he will be given the injured throwing shoulder that kept him out the last two weeks. Trubisky has won four straight games that he started before tonight — but let’s keep that quality of competition in mind. Those wins against the Jets, Bills, Lions, Vikings were against opponents that entered the day with a weak 17-30-1 combined record. It is telling that Trubisky had only four touchdown passes against the four opponents. Moving forward, Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. It will be cold in the Windy City tonight with temperates expected to be in the high-20s. The Bears have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December. I expect this cold weather to bother quarterback Jared Goff who as a California kid growing up and in college at Cal has rarely been asked to play in this kind of weather. Goff played with the temperatures in the 20s earlier this season in Denver back on October 14th — and that was one of his worst games of the season as he completed just 14 of 28 passes for only 201 yards. He did not throw a touchdown pass in that game while throwing one interception and getting sacked five times. He will certainly be under pressure tonight from Khalil Mack and company who have accounted for 37 sacks on the quarterback this season. Look for the Rams to commit to Todd Gurley as they look to run the football to take pressure off Goff in these conditions against an elite defense. Goff is a finesse passer who cannot be expected to have the same touch in these conditions as he does when playing in warmer weather. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Rams have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win on the road. The good news for this football team is the return of Aqib Talib at cornerback. His absence helps explain why this LA defense has underachieved for much of the season as he offers the team their best cover corner. His presence on the field will likely make the Bears’ one-dimensional in their offensive attack. The Rams defense has been better on the road where they allow 22.5 PPG which is more than 2 points less than their 24.8 PPG season defensive average. FINAL TAKE: Weather should play a role in this game between two teams from the NFC destined for the playoffs. Look for this game to become a defensive struggle. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (119) and the Chicago Bears (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-18 |
Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys |
Top |
23-29 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (129) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (130). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-6) has won two straight games with their 28-13 win over Washington on Monday as a 5.5-point favorite. Dallas (7-5) has won four straight games with their triumphant 13-10 upset win over New Orleans back on November 29th as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys acted like they won the Super Bowl two Thursdays ago with their upset win over the Saints on that short week. We had Dallas in that game — and the fringe benefit to that victory was that it set up this letdown situation. The Cowboys have been fortunate to reach their 7-5 record given that six of their victories have been decided by one scoring possession. They are only out-gaining their opponents by +13.6 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in four straight games along with five of their last seven — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. They held the Saints to just 176 yards of offense last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 205 total yards of offense. Dallas is also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game. Philadelphia enters this critical game for them with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning two straight games. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home against a divisional rival. They also have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after playing their last two games at home. Carson Wentz is heating up as he completed 27 of 39 passes against the Skins for 306 yards with two touchdown passes. Wentz loves facing NFC East foes against which he has a 7-1 record with a 17:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging 262.4 passing YPG along with a 106.2 Passer Rating. Wentz led his offense to 436 total yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 350 yards of offense in their last game. The defense has been the biggest issue for this team simply ravaged by injuries which was made even worse this week with the news that they placed cornerback Jalen Mills on Injured Reserve. The Eagles have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.03 and 7.31 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The Philly run defense remains stout as they rank 10th in the NFL by allowing 103.7 rushing YPG — and asking Dak Prescott to beat them with his arm is the preferred strategy anyways. The reigning Super Bowl Champions are tough in expected close games as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: As opposed to last week when the Cowboys had the gigantic chip on their shoulder hosting the Saints on a ten-game winning streak, it is the Eagles now with something to prove in this game after Dallas won their proverbial Super Bowl to (temporarily) quell all their insecurities. Philadelphia is looking to avenge a 27-20 loss at home to the Cowboys back on November 11th despite being 7.5-point favorites in that game. Not only have the Eagles covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road when playing with same-season revenge but they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging an upset loss where they were home favorites laying at least a touchdown. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the Philadelphia Eagles (129) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-18 |
Saints v. Bucs UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
28-14 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (113) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (114). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-2) takes the field again after their 13-10 loss at Dallas back on November 29th as a 7.5-point favorite that snapped their ten-game winning streak. Tampa Bay (5-7) has won two straight games after they upset Carolina at home last Sunday by a 24-17 score as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite laying at least a touchdown. Don’t blame the defense for that loss as they held the Cowboys to just 308 yards of offense. The New Orleans defense is underrated. Not only do the Saints lead the NFL in rushing defense by limiting their opponents to just 75.3 rushing YPG, but they are also doing a fantastic job of pressuring the quarterback. Over their last four games, New Orleans has generated 20 sacks while registering 34 hits on the quarterback. They have only allowed more than 23 points once (to the Rams in that shootout) in their last nine games — and in their last three games, they are allowing just 12.3 PPG while giving up only 290.0 total YPG. The problem for the Saints against Dallas was the offense that managed to gain a mere 176 total yards. Look for New Orleans to deploy their preferred offensive strategy when playing on the road which is to run the football to burn clock and keep the opposing quarterback off the field. This should be a very effective strategy to limit Jameis Winston’s effectiveness. Since Week Nine, the Buccaneers are allowing 134.6 rushing YPG while seeing opposing rushers average 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Tampa Bay allowed the Panthers to generate 161 rushing yards against them last week on the heels of the 49ers rushing for 181 yards against them two weeks ago. The Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. They also have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Tampa Bay upset Carolina last week despite only gaining 315 yards of offense against them. The Bucs have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning their last two games at home — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of December. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 4 straight games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 13 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, the Bucs have played 11 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 20 meetings Under the Total — and this includes 8 of the last 10 encounters in Tampa Bay finishing below the number. The oddsmakers have installed an over/under the number in the mid-50s given the 48-40 shootout that the Bucs pulled out in an upset back on September 9th. The Saints’ defense has more to prove in this rematch than even the offense does after last week. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (113) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-09-18 |
Colts +4.5 v. Texans |
Top |
24-21 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (107) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (108). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-6) looks to rebound from their humiliating 6-0 shutout loss on the road to Jacksonville last week despite being a 4-point favorite. Houston (9-3) has rattled off nine straight victories with their 29-13 win over Cleveland last week as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis should be very feisty in this game after being shutout — they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. If there is anything encouraging from that loss to the Jaguars, it was the continued improvement of the Colts defense that held Jacksonville to just 211 yards of offense. Over their last three games, Indianapolis has allowed only 13.3 PPG along with just 262.7 total YPG. Indy is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 250 yards of offense in their last game. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a low-scoring game where neither team scored more than 14 points. This is a challenge for this team when facing this ferocious defense that has registered 34 sacks for the season. But this strong Colts’ offensive line has allowed only 14 sacks this season — so Andrew Luck should have an opportunity to find receivers this afternoon. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Colts are also 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games against their AFC South rivals — and this includes them going 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Houston. The Texans generated 384 yards of offense last week against the Browns — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But a concern for this team is their defense that allowed 428 yards to the Browns with rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield gaining 397 of those yards in the air. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 305 yards in their last game. This shapes up to be a higher scoring game with the Total set in the low-50s — but this is not the type of game that this team prefers. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of December under head coach Bill O’Brien.
FINAL TAKE: The Texans won the first meeting between these two teams back on September 30th by a 37-34 score despite that game being played in Indianapolis. The Colts have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. Don’t be surprised if Indy pulls the upset — but take the points for some nice insurance in what should be a close game. 25* AFC South Underdog of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (107) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-06-18 |
Jaguars v. Titans -5 |
Top |
9-30 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (102) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (101). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 26-22 win over the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-8) ended their seven-game losing streak with their 6-0 shutout victory over Indianapolis as a 4-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars’ defense may have been inspired to make a statement with head coach Doug Marrone’s decision to end the Blake Bortles era last week with him being benched for Cody Kessler at quarterback. Jacksonville stepped up t shutout Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense while holding them to just 265 yards of offense. But this remains a lost season for the Jaguars who need to win their final four games just to get to an 8-8 record. Sure, Jacksonville can also try to motivate themselves to play the role of the spoiler — but that seems unlikely for this group at this point particularly with them playing on a short week. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Jacksonville is also 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Jags held Indy to averaging just 3.90 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 4.0 YPP in their last game. The bigger problem for this team remains their offense now reliant on Kessler running the show. He passed for just 150 yards in that game leading an offense that generated a mere 211 yards. Jacksonville was out-gained by 54 net yards even in that victory. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. While the Bortles narrative has received most of the attention this season, one of the biggest reasons why this team has underachieved this season has been that they have ravaged by injuries. Jacksonville has a whopping fifteen players on Injured Reserve at this point of the season including three of their opening day starters on the offensive line headlined by their All-Pro left guard Andrew Norwell. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 1-5 this season while being outscored by -9.3 PPG while allowing their home hosts to score 27.0 PPG. The Jags are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road. Furthermore, Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Titans. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The Titans held the Jets to just 124 passing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Tennessee stays at home on this short week where they are 4-1 this season — and they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games at home. Additionally, the Titans have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by 7 points or less. The Tennessee defense is a top-nine unit in yards allowed while ranking 6th in the league by holding their opponents to only 20.4 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: I would put more credence into the potential role of the spoiler for the Jaguars if they had a whole week to prepare — instead, I suspect they rested on their laurels after stepping up last week against the Colts. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is playing better football as of late as he gets back to 100% health. Look for this tough Titans team to take care of business on their home field. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (102) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-03-18 |
Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
13-28 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (379) and the Philadelphia Eagles (380). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-5) has lost two straight games after their 31-23 win at Dallas back on Thanksgiving as a 7-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 25-22 win over the New York Giants as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Skins have been ravaged with injuries on the offensive side of the football. While the biggest lost player is quarterback Alex Smith, the attrition this team has suffered on their offensive line would devastate most teams. Washington has put four of their players that began the season on their two-deep depth chart on Injured Reserve with three of these players being starters — and their six-time Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams is questionable for tonight with rib and ankle injuries. The Skins are averaging 20.0 PPG for the season while scoring 19.1 PPG over their last three games and it is difficult seeing them putting up many more points than that. Adrian Peterson’s production has significantly declined as these injuries on the offensive line have mounted. Over the last month, the running back is averaging only 3.05 Yards-Per-Carry — and he has not reached 70 yards from scrimmage since October 28th. Washington rushed for just 80 yards against the Cowboys — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they failed to rush for at least 90 yards. Furthermore, the Skins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Quarterback Colt McCoy was a victim of this injured offensive line as well. He was sacked three times by Dallas while getting hitting eight times in that game. Washington has also been hit with injuries on defense but this unit is still playing well. For the season, the Skins rank 8th the NFL by allowing only 20.8 PPG led by a stout run defense that also ranks 8th in the league by allowing 100.3 rushing YPG. Over their last three games, Washington is allowing just 19.4 PPG — and they hold their home hosts to only 19.2 PPG. The Skins did allow 258 passing yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Washington has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Skins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles defense gave up 276 passing yards along with 402 total yards of offense to the Giants — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while they allowed 7.31 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP. Philly is riddled with injuries in their secondary — but it helps that they are only facing McCoy rather than Smith at quarterback tonight. The Eagles are still playing strong run defense that ranks 10th in the league by allowing 103.6 rushing YPG. But this Philly offense is scoring only 17.3 PPG along with just 319.3 total YPG over their last three games. Philadelphia stays at home where they are holding only scoring 20.2 PPG — but they are also holding their visitors to that number. The Eagles have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Philly has played 7 straight home games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 8 straight home games Under the Total after playing an NFC East rival.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams have been hit very hard by the injury bug. Since the onus is on the offensive to execute plays to move the football, usually it is the defenses that look relatively better when injuries are spread out on both sides of the football. Expect a lower-scoring game between these two divisional rivals playing for the first time this season. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (379) and the Philadelphia Eagles (380). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-18 |
Chargers v. Steelers UNDER 53 |
Top |
33-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (353) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (354). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-3) has won seven of their last eight games with their 45-10 win over Arizona last week as a 14-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 24-17 upset loss at Denver as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers are playing outstanding defense right now — and that unit is even better now that Joey Bosa has returned after missing most of the season due to injury. Los Angeles has allowed less than 20 points in six of their last seven games. Over their last three games, the Chargers are allowing just 13.0 PPG along with only 263.7 total YPG. This strong defensive play should continue tonight as the Under is 35-16-1 in the LA’s last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers did generate 414 yards of offense last week against the Cardinals — but they have then seen the Under go 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Unfortunately for this offense, they will be without their top running back, Melvin Gordon tonight who is out with a knee injury. Now the Chargers go back on the road where they are only averaging 368.0 total YPG which is 34 YPG below their season average. But the LA defense keeps them competitive away from home as they hold their opponents to just 18.5 PPG. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh has only scored 37 combined points over their last two games. They are getting outstanding play from their defense that not only leads the NFL in sacks but is allowing only 20.3 PPG along with just 264.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Steelers have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two of there last three games. Pittsburgh did generate 527 yards of offense last week while averaging 7.12 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game and they have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Pittsburgh needs to get their rushing attack going again after only rushing for 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to gain more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. The Steelers have averaged 403.6 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three games. Lastly, Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The high Total set in the low-50s suggests that this shapes up to be a scoring fest. However, both these teams are playing great defense — scoring is going to be harder to come by for both teams. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (353) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (354). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-18 |
Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (351) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (352). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-5) has won five straight games with their 27-24 win over Miami last week as a 9-point favorite. Jacksonville (3-8) has lost seven straight games with their 24-21 win at Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have hit rock bottom — so head coach Doug Marrone fired offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and benched quarterback Blake Bortles. But new offensive coordinator Scott Milanovich is still limited by the offensive talent available to him. Quarterback Cody Kessler has only played in thirteen NFL games in his career. And the team will be without running back Leonard Fournette who was suspended for one game for his roughhouse behavior in last week’s game with the Bills. Jacksonville is scoring only 17.9 PPG. But the maligned Jaguars’ defense has played much better at home where they are holding their opponents to just 16.2 PPG along with only 261.6 total YPG. Last week’s game with Buffalo went Over the 36.5 point Total — but Jacksonville has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that went Over. The Jaguars have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Bills did rush for 167 yards last week — but the Jags have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at home. And in their last 7 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Jaguars have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Colts generated 455 yards of offense in that game, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Indy suffered a -2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Colts defense has stepped up their level of play as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 20.0 PPG along with only 330.7 total YPG. Andrew Luck has led an offense that has scored at least 27 points in six straight games — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in five straight games. Moving forward, Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 12 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Colts have played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 29-26 win back on November 11th. While that game flew Over the 48 point Total, these two teams have still played 11 of their last 15 meetings Under the Total. Expect this rematch to be a lower-scoring game. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (351) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (352). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-18 |
Saints v. Cowboys UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
10-13 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-1) has won ten straight games after their 31-17 win over Atlanta last Thursday as an 11.5-point favorite. Dallas (6-5) has won three games in a row with their 31-23 win over Washington at home last Thanksgiving as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While the Saints offense that leads the NFL by scoring 37.2 PPG, the continued improved play of their defense too often gets the short shrift. New Orleans has allowed only 12.7 PPG over their last three games while limiting their last three opponents to just 282.0 total YPG. The Saints have not allowed more than 23 points in seven of their last eight games with the lone exception being their 45-35 shootout with the Rams. The New Orleans run defense leads the NFL by allowing only 73.2 YPG — and opposing rushers average just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Nine of their last ten opponents have failed to rush for more than 100 yards — and their last three opponents have managed only 65 rushing YPG. The Saints pass rush has stepped as of late as well as they have combined for 13 sacks along with 25 hits on the quarterback over the last three weeks. This unit will be infused the return of their breakout rookie defensive lineman Marcus Davenport who has missed the last few weeks with a toe injury. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Saints have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. While New Orleans has scored at least 30 points in five straight games, they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in their last five contests. As the weather begins to turn, the Saints are starting to emphasize their rushing attack a bit more with Mark Ingram back in the mix after serving his four-game suspension. Drew Brees only attempted 22 passes last week against the Falcons. New Orleans only generated 312 yards of offense last week against the Atlanta defense. The Saints tend to run the ball more when they go on the road as well — they have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. The formula for defeating the Saints will certainly be to run the ball to burn time off the clock and keep Brees off the field — Dallas is 5-1 this season when Ezekiel Elliott rushes for at least 100 yards. Despite last week’s offensive effort against the Skins, the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Dallas has an outstanding defense that is 3rd in the NFL by allowing just 19.4 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up a mere 331.1 total YPG. The Cowboys run defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 93.6 YPG — and they are allowing only 3.46 YPC. They held Washington to just 80 rushing yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Dallas has not allowed more than 28 points to an opponent all season. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these are going to attempt to run the football — yet both might be stymied in these efforts when facing their opposing strong run defenses. While that will likely lead to a course of events that will see more passing, the lack of an effective ground game will slow down these offenses. With the Total in the low-50s given the prowess of the Saints offense, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-18 |
Titans v. Texans UNDER 43 |
Top |
17-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (273) and the Houston Texans (274). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (5-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 38-10 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog. Houston (7-3) has won seven straight games with their 23-21 win at Washington as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans lost their defensive coordinator Dean Pees in the middle of their game with the Colts as he went to the hospital with a medical scare — that had to play a role in them allowing 397 yards of offense. Pees has been cleared to run the defense tonight for this game. Expect a better effort from this Tennessee defense that allows only 19.7 PPG along with 305.8 total YPG when they are playing on the road. The Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least three touchdowns. Tennessee has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. But the Titans only score 16.3 PPG away from home while averaging a mere 297.2 total YPG. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Titans have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the game finished Under the Total all 6 times. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC South foes. The Texans have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Houston’s previous game was also on the road in what resulted in a 19-17 win at Denver against the Broncos. The Texans have played 6 straight games Under the Total after winning two straight games by 6 points or less. Houston returns home where they are allowing only 19.7 PPG and just 317.5 total YPG. Since Week Five, the Texans are allowing only 17.5 PPG with an improved defense. Furthermore, Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of November. And in their last 5 appearances for Monday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played back on September 16th with the Titans pulling off a 20-17 upset as the home underdog. Expect another lower-score game in this rematch. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (273) and the Houston Texans (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Packers v. Vikings -3 |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-4-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 25-20 loss last Sunday night in Chicago to the Bears as a 2.5-point underdog. Green Bay (4-5-1) has lost three of their last four contests with their 27-24 loss in Seattle last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been incredibly resilient under head coach Mike Zimmer. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after a straight up loss. They return home where their defense thrives by holding their visitors to just 19.0 PPG along with 273.4 total YPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota is also a decisive 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games on their home field. Additionally, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of November. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed 378 yards of offense to the Seahawks last week, they are then just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay stays on the road this week where they are winless in five games while being outscored by -8.2 PPG in those games due to them allowing 29.8 PPG with the fewest points allowed being 27 to their home hosts. The Packers are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games away from home. Furthermore, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in the month of November — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games against NFC North foes.
FINAL TAKE: I don’t like where this Packers team is headed this season with head coach Mike McCarthy seemingly now a lame duck while Aaron Rodgers ignores his play selections at the line of scrimmage. Minnesota is also reeling — but their vastly superior roster depth should help them do what it takes to win this game in convincing fashion. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Steelers v. Broncos UNDER 48 |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (269) and the Denver Broncos (270). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-2-1) has won six straight games with their 20-16 win over Jacksonville last week as a 4-point favorite. Denver (4-6) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 23-22 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Denver allowed 479 yards in that contest — but the Under is then 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Broncos return home where they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against a team with a winning record on the road. Denver has also played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of November. And in their last 6 games as an underdog, the Broncos have played 5 of these games Under the Total. They will certainly try to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep the Steelers off the field. That is what the Jaguars did last week as Pittsburgh was only on offense for 22:20 minutes of that game. As a result, the Steelers generated only 323 yards of offense. Pittsburgh did hold Jacksonville to only 243 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing less than 250 yards in their last game. The Steelers defense has raised their level of play — over their last three games, they are allowing only 17.7 PPG along with just 251.0 total YPG. Now Pittsburgh goes back on the road where they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total — and they have also played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, not only have the Steelers played 30 of their last 43 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher but they have also played 8 straight road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Lastly, Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers offense is not nearly as potent when playing on the road they are scoring 5.5 PPG below their season average. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (269) and the Denver Broncos (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Patriots v. Jets UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
27-13 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (261) and the New York Jets (262). THE SITUATION: New England (7-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago with their 34-10 loss at Tennessee as a 6.5-point favorite. New York (3-7) has lost four straight games with their 41-10 loss to Buffalo two Sundays ago where they were a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. It is time for Bill Belichick and his coaching staff to get back to basics: run the football to burn time off the clock and protect their defense. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. This is particularly the case when the Patriots go on the road where their offense is not nearly as explosive as it is in Foxboro. New England is scoring only 20.6 PPG on the road while averaging 312.6 total YPG — and those numbers are far below their 28.0 PPG scoring average along with the 377.2 total YPG they are averaging this season. The Patriots have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, New England has played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after the first month of the season. The Patriots defense has been playing pretty well. Even after their bad effort against the Titans the last time out, they have held their last three opponents to score only 19.0 PPG while averaging just 362.0 total YPG. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East opponents. New York has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset loss at home. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has been declared out for this game with his foot injury — so it will be the veteran Josh McCown under center for this game. What McCown bring in his savvy and knowledge to this position is mitigated by his limited physical skills. He completed 17 of 34 passes against the Bills but that only resulted in 135 yards of offense — and he threw two interceptions. The Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. New York is scoring an anemic 8.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 229.3 total YPG. The Jets need to run the football to keep Tom Brady off the field. The Jets defense has been playing pretty well — they have held their last three opponents to just 338.0 total YPG. The Bills behind Matt Barkley (!) generated 451 yards against them in their last game — but they have played 38 of their last 60 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 13 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest, the Jets have played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams this season — they last played on December 31st where the Patriots won by a 26-6 score. These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total — look for this afternoon showdown to make it five in a row. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (261) and the New York Jets (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-18 |
Falcons v. Saints OVER 59 |
Top |
17-31 |
Loss |
-103 |
14 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (109) and the New Orleans (110). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-6) has lost two straight games with their 22-19 loss to Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (9-1) has won nine straight games with their 48-7 blowout victory over Philadelphia on Sunday as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Saints cranked out a whopping 546 yards of offense against the reigning Super Bowl champions — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New Orleans defense did hold the Eagles to just 196 total yards of offense — but they have played 30 of their last 43 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Head coach Sean Payton has his offense push the pace when playing on the fast turf at home in the Superdome. Drew Brees has a perfect 16:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his five home games this year while averaging 350.8 passing YPG. The Saints are averaging 39.4 PPG when playing at home while allowing their visitors to manage 25.4 PPG to result in an average combined score well into the 60s. The Over is 19-8-1 in New Orleans’ last 28 home games. Furthermore, the Saints have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when a double-digit favorite. New Orleans is the hottest team in the league who have covered the point spread in eight straight games — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in at least five straight games. The Saints have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NFC South rivals. Atlanta would surely like to run the ball to keep the Saints’ offense off the field but that will be difficult to accomplish with Devonta Freeman on Injured Reserve with his foot injury. The Falcons will not have the luxury of hoping to establish the run if they fall behind early to this New Orleans team that averages 22.4 first-half points when playing at home. Atlanta has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Additionally, the Falcons have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The injury-plagued Atlanta defense will have a difficult time slowing down the Saints offense after allowing their last two opponents to churn out 353 rushing yards while averaging 6.66 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons lack a credible pass rush — they rank in the bottom-five in the NFL by sacking the QB in just 4.8% of opponent pass attempts and they are just hitting the quarterback in 11.1% of their dropbacks. Matt Ryan still has most of his offensive weapons at his disposal in the passing game — so the Falcons should score their share of points as they try to keep pace with the New Orleans offense. Atlanta only generated 329 yards against Dallas last week but that was in large part because they had ten fewer offensive plays than what they typically enjoy. The Falcons still averaged 6.23 Yards-Per-Play against the Cowboys — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Atlanta has played 14 of their last 18 road games Over the Total as a road underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans won the first meeting between these two teams back on September 23rd that the Saints won by a 43-37 score. That was the game where the Falcons began to produce better success in the Red Zone. Atlanta has scored at least 31 points five times this season — and head coach Dan Quinn will have to think that generating at least that many points will be necessary to pull the upset. That is a recipe for another high scoring game. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (109) and the New Orleans (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-18 |
Redskins +8.5 v. Cowboys |
Top |
23-31 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (107) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 23-21 loss to Houston on Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (5-5) pulled off their second-straight upset victory on Sunday with their 22-19 win in Atlanta over the Falcons as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The bigger news for Washington was the gruesome leg injury to quarterback Alex Smith that ended his season in eerily similar ways to what to Joe Theismann for the team over two decades ago. The offense is now in the hands of the nine-year veteran Colt McCoy. I am a bit more bullish on what McCoy can do running this offense than the general public. The former Texas star has 25 professional starts under his belt with a firm understanding of the Jay Gruden offense having been with the Skins for 4 1/2 seasons. McCoy does not have a strong arm — but neither does Smith. I expect McCoy to capably run the offense while limiting his mistakes and letting the stout Skins’ defense keep them in the game. I certainly expect Washington to play hard in this crucial NFC East contest. As it is, the Skins have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a loss at home. Additionally, Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, the Skins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the month of November — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 trips to Dallas to face the Cowboys. Dallas returns home after pulling off two straight upset wins on the road against the Eagles and Falcons — but this remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a win on the road by a field goal or less. This is not a franchise that handles short-term prosperity very well. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record at home. Dallas held Atlanta to just 324 yards of offense due in large measure to limiting them to 10 fewer snaps on offense versus their season average. The Cowboys have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.23 and 7.02 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.5 YPP. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games played on a Thursday, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Four of Dallas’ five victories this season have been decided by one scoring possession. They may win this game — but this should be a close contest between divisional rivals with first-place and playoff positioning on the line. Taking the points will be valuable with a Washington team that should rally around each other after the injury to their starting quarterback. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Redskins (107) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-19-18 |
Chiefs v. Rams OVER 62 |
Top |
51-54 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (9-1) has won four straight games with their 26-14 win over Arizona last week as a 16.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (9-1) enters this game coming off a 36-31 win over Seattle last week as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With the oddsmakers installing the total in the 63 range, this is the largest over/under in NFL history. Of course, numbers like this are not uncommon when betting College Football. With the number this high, it seems like the books are begging bettors to take the Under. I am not taking the bait. I see three reasons why this game is going over the number. First, the pace of this game will be fast. Both coaches like to play up-tempo on offense. Neither head coach is very concerned with controlling the time off possession. When both teams are playing fast, that will increase the number of possessions for both teams. Second, both head coaches will play this game aggressively since they both will likely think that they will need to score at least 30 points to win this game. This expectation helps make the Over a self-fulfilling prophecy. Los Angeles has scored at least 33 points in eight of their games while Kansas City has scored at least 30 points in eight of their contests. But Los Angeles has given up 31 points four times including in both of their last two games. Kansas City has allowed at least 27 points in four of their games. Third, since both teams struggle to stop the run, both offenses will have advantageous down-and-distance opportunities on second and third down which will maximize their play-calling flexibility. The Chiefs allow their opponents to average 5.11 Yards-Per-Carry while the Rams allow opposing rushers to average 4.92 Yards-Per-Carry. Second-and-five situations are great for the offense. Los Angeles has played 21 of their last 31 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Lastly, the Chiefs have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: I think both of these teams have already played games that are likely blue prints for how this game will be played out. Kansas City fell behind early but kept pushing the pace before New England outlasted them by a 43-40 score. The Rams were not able to catch up in New Orleans after falling behind in what ended up being a 45-35 final score. With their rule changes in the offseason, this the product that the NFL wants — so don’t be surprised if the referees make some calls that benefit both offenses. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-18 |
Vikings v. Bears UNDER 46 |
Top |
20-25 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (457) and the Chicago Bears (458). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-3-1) takes the field again having won four of their last five games with their 24-9 win over Detroit two weeks ago as a 4.5-point favorite. Chicago (6-3) has won three straight games after their 34-22 win over those same Lions last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has scored 75 points over their last two games — both that explosion in points was built on a foundation of seven forced turnovers. While the Bears have averaged 33.0 PPG over their last three games, they have only averaged 329.0 total YPG over that span. Mitchell Trubisky did complete 23 of 30 passes for 355 yards against a Lions defense missing their best cover cornerback in Darius Slay — but Chicago has played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Chicago defense has been outstanding as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 13.7 PPG along with a mere 255.7 total YPG. The Bears surrendered only 76 rushing yards last week to the Lions after giving up just 97 rushing yards the previous week against the Bills. Not only have Chicago then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not giving up at least 100 rushing yards in two straight games. Even better for this unit is that their star linebacker Khalil Mack is healthy again and will play tonight. The Bears host this game at Soldier Field where they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after their bye week — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Purple People Eater Defense is cranking on all cylinders again with their stud defensive end Everson Griffen back in the mix. Over their last three games, the Vikings are allowing only 18.7 PPG along with just 247.3 total YPG. They should keep it going as they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Minnesota has played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total — including playing four straight Unders when playing in Chicago. Expect another lower scoring game between two teams whose true strengths lie on the defensive side of the football. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (457) and the Chicago Bears (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-18 |
Titans v. Colts +1.5 |
Top |
10-38 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (462) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (461). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-5) has won three straight games after their 29-26 win over Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (5-4) looks to build off their 34-10 upset win over New England as 6.5-point underdogs last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Titans have pulled off two straight upset wins as their victory over the Patriots was preceded by their 28-14 upset win at Dallas a 4-point underdog back on Monday Night Football. Tennessee looks due for a visit to Letdown City. As it is, they have failed to cover the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they are a decisive 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games after a straight-up win. The Titans did generate 385 yards of offense against the New England defense while averaging 6.31 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP. But now Tennessee goes back on the road where they are scoring only 17.6 PPG while averaging just 304.0 total YPG. The Titans are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams that do not have a winning percentage above .500 at home. Tennessee is also only 10-27-3 ATS in their last 40 games against teams with a losing record. This game has a high Total with the number creeping into the 50s — and this is not the type of game that the Titans do well in. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Indianapolis is one of the hottest teams in the league right now — and they have been propelled by their success in rushing the football. Over their last four games, they are averaging 162.5 rushing YPG while averaging 5.24 Yards-Per-Carry. Perhaps more importantly, they are averaging 30.5 rushing attempts per game over that span — and that commitment to running the ball pays dividends in ways that too many in the analytics community fail to grasp. Moving the chains helps the Colts defense by keeping them off the field and fresh. A credible ground game also helps quarterback Andrew Luck be more effective in the passing game. Luck has tossed at least three touchdown passes in six straight games — and he has his favorite weapon back in tight end Jack Doyle who had missed the first part of the season with an injury. Indianapolis enjoyed an outstanding draft this year with the tear top pick in guard Quentin Nelson out of Notre Dame really paying dividends. Luck has not been sacked in his last 189 pass attempts. Indianapolis has scored 71 points over their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Additionally, the Colts have averaged at least 6.27 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last two games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last four games. Indy did allow 415 yards last week to a desperate Jaguars team — but they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts stay at home where they are scoring 30.7 PPG while averaging 400.0 total YPG — and they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Indianapolis has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as the favorite. Lastly, the Colts are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games in the month of November.
FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis was swept by the Titans last season — so they surely had this date circled on their calendar as a critical point of their 2018-19 campaign. Of course, Andrew Luck was on the shelf last year. Their star quarterback has made a complete recovery from his array of injuries and finally has the support of a strong offensive line. Luck is playing the best football of his career — he should make the difference in this game. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (462) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-18 |
Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 44 |
Top |
21-24 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (455) and the Baltimore Ravens (456). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their humiliating 51-14 loss to New Orleans last Sunday as 6-point underdogs. Baltimore (4-5) has lost three straight games with their 23-16 upset loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have been a disaster on defense this season. They are allowing 456.5 total YPG which is not only last in the NFL but on pace to be worst mark ever in NFL history. After surrendering 130 points over their last three games, head coach Marvin Lewis fired defensive coordinator Teryl Austin who was a hot head coaching candidate for next season just a couple of months ago. Lewis will take over the defense which should result in the players being more accountable for their actions on and off the field. Injuries have hurt this unit — but futility of this magnitude indicates that the effort has not been there. Lewis will get some help on that side of the field with the firing of Hue Jackson who will serve as an assistant coach taking Austin’s place. While I know Jackson is a self-promoting clown most of the time, he is also someone with a long history of working with Lewis including serving on the defensive coaching staff with the Bengals after he was sacked from the Raiders. Jackson also brings plenty of perspective on the Ravens with them being a divisional rival. I expect immediate improvement on defense. They allowed 509 yards of offense to the Saints last week — but they have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Under is also 21-10-1 in Cincinnati’s last 32 games after giving up at least 30 points. The offense is limited still with wide receiver A.J. Green out so expect plenty of Joe Mixon and the Bengals rushing attack to keep the clock moving and protect this defense a bit by keeping them off the darn field. Cincinnati has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and this includes four straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Bengals have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the month of November. Baltimore will be starting rookie Lamar Jackson at quarterback with Joe Flacco still nursing a hip injury. I have seen nothing to indicate that Jackson is ready for this assignment yet — unless operating ineffective specialized packages now serves as an endorsement. The Ravens will likely struggle with their passing game with Jackson under center still not polished with that part of his game at the professional level. But the Baltimore defense remains stout as they allow only 16.0 PPG along with a mere 275.0 total YPG when playing at home. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a bye week. Furthermore. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of November — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of their game played back in the idyllic days of mid-September where the Bengals won by a 34-23 score with that Total set at 43. Things have changed. Expect a lower scoring game this time around. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (455) and the Baltimore Ravens (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-15-18 |
Packers v. Seahawks -1 |
Top |
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (308) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (307). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-5) has lost two straight games after their 36-31 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams on Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Green Bay (4-4-1) enters this game coming off a 31-12 win over an injury-depleted Miami team as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle is better then their losing record suggests as all five of their losses were decided by one-scoring possession — and they are outscoring their opponents by +3.1 net PPG. They should rebound with a strong effort tonight as they are a decisive 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games are a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Seahawks game is predicated on running the football as they lead the NFL by averaging 152.2 rushing YPG — and this attack will be bolstered by the return of running back Chris Carson from injury. This team has the luxury of riding the hot-hand with Rashard Penny, Mike Davis and Carson all likely to get carries early in this game. Seattle should find success against this Packers defense that is 21st in the NFL by allowing 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. Over their last four games, Green Bay is allowing 4.97 YPC while allowing 120.5 rushing YPG. Even without Carson last week, the Seahawks rushed for 273 yards against the Rams — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Seattle is also 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a Thursday night under head coach Pete Carroll. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Now they go on the road for the third time in their last four games where they are 0-4 while being outscored by -9.5 PPG. The defense has let the Packers down on the road by allowing 31 points three times and 29 points in their other game away from home. Green Bay’s defense is a depleted group right now with linebacker Nick Perry, cornerback Kevin King, and strong safety Kontrell Brice all declared out for this game. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in the month of November. And in their last 4 games played on the faster field turf, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread all 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: This is likely an elimination game from the playoff race for the losing team. Despite their five losses, the Seahawks seem to be heading in the right direction after their roster shakeup in the offseason — while the Packers seem to be hanging on by a thread with Aaron Rodgers just not having enough help around him on both sides of the football. Expect Seattle to wear down this Green Bay team. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (308) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-18 |
Giants v. 49ers UNDER 46 |
Top |
27-23 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the San Francisco 49ers (276). THE SITUATION: New York (1-7) has lost seven straight games after their 20-13 loss at home to Washington two Sundays ago as a 1-point underdog. San Francisco (2-7) enters this game coming off their 34-3 upset win against Oakland back on November 1st as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers got a surprising performance from Nick Mullens at quarterback who completed 16 of 22 passes for 262 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Look for Mullens to regress a bit in this contest with the Giants having eleven days to study that tape in preparation for this game. As it is, San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where at least 30 points were scored. The 49ers’ defense did a great job by limiting the Raiders’ offense to just 242 yards of offense. San Francisco has an underrated defense that 12th in the NFL by allowing only 351.7 total YPG — and that number drops to just 305.0 total YPG when they are playing at home. The 49ers have allowed only two field goals in the first-half in their last two games — and they have played 27 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first-half of two straight games. Additionally, San Francisco has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the month of November. New York has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Giants have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. New York allowed 360 yards of offense to the Redskins — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Giants managed only 303 yards of offense behind the declining Eli Manning at quarterback. His lack of mobility combines with a decrepit offensive line produces a sluggish offense that ranks 27th in the NFL by scoring just 18.8 PPG. New York has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Giants go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Lastly, New York has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total — and they have also played twelve of their last eighteen games Under the Total on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: This game shapes up to see plenty of stalled drives where the offenses will settle for field goals. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the San Francisco 49ers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-11-18 |
Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 43.5 |
Top |
27-20 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-5) has lost two straight games after their 28-14 upset loss to Tennessee on Monday where they were laying -4.5-points. Philadelphia (4-4) returns to the field from their bye week after their 24-18 win in Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have won and covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games while also playing 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Philly went into their bye week having suffered a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after losing the turnover battle in at least two straight games. Playing just their second game of the season against a divisional rival along with having acquired wide receiver Golden Tate at the trade deadline, the reigning Super Bowl champions are feeling pretty good about themselves. Even without Tate, this offense has begun to hum as quarterback Carson Wentz gets more comfortable under center after tearing his ACL last season. The Eagles averaged 7.28 Yards-Per-Play against the Jaguars in their last game — and they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after averaging 6.5 YPP in their last game. Philadelphia has played 26 of their last 37 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against fellow NFC East rivals. Dallas was expected to see an immediate uptick in their offensive production with the acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper but they managed only 297 yards of offense on Monday as the team struggled with keeping their offensive identity with their new offensive weapon. I thought the expectations for the Cowboys offense was overestimated before their game with the Titans — and I suspect it is not being underestimated moving forward. Expect a significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball tonight. Dallas has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns as a home favorite. The loss to Tennessee followed up an upset loss to Washington the previous week — and the Cowboys have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after suffering two straight upset losses. Dallas is going to have to generate their share of points in this game given the injuries they are dealing with on defense. The Cowboys are down two of their players in their defensive line rotation with David Irving and Randy Gregory still out — their absence on Monday played a role in Marcus Mariota having his good game at quarterback. Dallas will also be without their best defensive player in linebacker Sean Lee who is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Cowboys need to get running back Ezekiel Elliot more involved in their offense after they have rushed for just 72 and 73 yards in their last two games after rushing for over 200 yards in their previous game against the Jaguars where they won while scoring 40 points. Dallas has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. And in their last 18 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points, the Cowboys have played 11 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played three straight Unders with their last contest being that New Year’s Eve game last year where Dallas shutout the Eagles with what looked to be a hapless Nick Folk at quarterback. With Dallas’ season in the balance, expect this to be a high scoring game. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-11-18 |
Lions +7 v. Bears |
Top |
22-34 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (265) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (266). THE SITUATION: Detroit (3-5) has lost two straight games after their 24-9 loss in Minnesota last week as a 4.5-point underdog. Chicago (5-3) has won two games in a row after their 41-9 blowout win in Buffalo as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit will be playing with desperation with that bad loss in Minnesota following up a 28-14 loss at home to Seattle. The entire organization is under scrutiny from quarterback Matthew Stafford failing to throw a touchdown pass last week for the first time all season to the offensive line giving up a whopping ten sacks to the Vikings to Matt Patricia seemingly over his head as a rookie head coach to the team appearing to have punted on the season after trading away wide receiver Golden Tate. Expect this adversity to have rallied this team together — they should come out swinging in this game. As it is, the Lions have bounced back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after losing two straight games by at least two touchdowns. Detroit has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games on the road after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The trade of Tate should create more opportunities for their promising young wide receiver Kenny Golladay so I am not too worried about their offense. While the Lions averaged just 3.48 Yards-Per-Play against the Vikings defense, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 games after failing to average more than 4.0 YPP in their last game. Furthermore, Detroit has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Lions have been reliable in situations like this as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Detroit is also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the month of November — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against divisional rivals. Chicago is riding high with two straight wins by at least two touchdowns as they defeated the Jets by a 24-10 score before dispatching of a Nathan Peterman-led Bills team last week. Yet the Bears were actually outgained by a 264-190 yardage margin to Buffalo while managing a mere 11 first downs. Two defensive touchdowns and a +3 net turnover margin in that game masked a pretty mediocre performance by Mitchell Trubisky who passed for just 135 yards. My longer-term concern with this team is that head coach Matt Nagy is asking his young quarterback to do too much in lieu of establishing their ground game behind Jordan Howard. Expect a letdown in this game especially with the significant uptick in competition against a divisional opponent. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in two straight games when laying the points as the favorite. Additionally, not only have the Bears failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 28 points but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. Moving forward, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago may win this game with this one being played at Soldier Field — but asking them to cover a point spread around a touchdown against an angry and desperate division rival (who remains alive in the NFC North playoff race) is too much to ask. Expect a close game that the Lions have a chance to steal. 25* NFC North Underdog of the Year with the Detroit Lions (265) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-08-18 |
Panthers v. Steelers OVER 50.5 |
Top |
21-52 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (108). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-2) has won three straight games with their 42-28 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Pittsburgh (5-2-1) has won four in a row with their 23-16 upset win at Baltimore last Sunday as a +1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games at home Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Pittsburgh generated 395 yards in that game against the Ravens — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers are 4th in the NFL by averaging 415.2 total YPG — and they are averaging 432.2 total YPG over their last three games. They return home where they are scoring 31.2 PPG — and their four home games are averaging 56.9 combined points scored. Ben Roethlisberger should have a big game against the suspect Panthers’ secondary that his allowing 250.9 passing YPG which ranks 19th in the NFL. Roethlisberger leads an offense that is averaging 313.6 passing YPG — and over his last sixteen starts, Big Ben is averaging 326.2 passing YPG while tossing 39 TD passes. He should have plenty of time to attack the Carolina defense. The Steelers’ offensive line is helping their QB get hit only 8.7% of their passing attempts which is tops in the NFL — and this offense ranks 2nd in the league by seeing their QB get sacked in only 3.1% of their passing attempts. The Panthers are bottom-ten in the league with their 21 team sacks. Pittsburgh has allowed 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total. The Steelers’ strong run defense will likely force Carolina into relying on the arm of Cam Newton. Pittsburgh has not allowed more than 74 rushing yards in each of their last three games. The Steelers have played 28 of their last 36 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in two straight games — and they have played 26 of their last 38 games Over the Total after holding their last three opponents to 75 or fewer rushing yards in at least three straight games. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Panthers have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Additionally, Carolina has played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Panthers scored five touchdowns in the first half against the Buccaneers before going into cruise control and finishing that game with 407 total yards of offense. Carolina has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after generating at least 400 yards in their last contest. Carolina is scoring 33.0 PPG over their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a high-scoring game. Newton only attempted 25 passes last week which was the second-lowest amount all season. He has tossed at least two TD passes in seven straight games. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-18 |
Packers v. Patriots -4.5 |
Top |
17-31 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (472) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). THE SITUATION: New England (6-2) has won five straight games with their 25-6 win at Buffalo on Monday as a -13.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-3-1) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-27 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams last week as a +7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England should be in prime form for this game as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Sunday on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. The Patriots have a number of injuries heading into this game but it does look like at least Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon will play despite being listed questionable by Bill Belichick’s very liberal use of the NFL’s “questionable” designation. They return home where they are a perfect 4-0 while outscoring their visitors by +13.8 PPG and outgaining them by +99.5 net YPG. Tom Brady is leading an offense that is scoring 36.5 PPG at home where he is completing 69.9% of his passes while averaging 308 passing YPG and accounting for 12 all-purpose touchdowns. And during their five-game winning streak, the Patriots are scoring 36.4 PPG and converting 50.8% of their 3rd downs which are both the best marks in the NFL during that span. New England has covered the points spread in 7 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when favored by not more than a touchdown. Additionally, the Patriots held the Bills to just 46 rushing yards last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. And with this being an expected high scoring game, New England has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Green Bay looks to be at a crossroads after the Ty Montgomery controversy last week that culminated in him being shipped to Baltimore before the trade deadline. This veteran team may not respond well to the trade of Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix since he was playing at a very high level with the move suggesting that management does not believe the team has the potential to make a deep run in the playoffs this year. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Now this team goes on the road where they are winless in three contests while being outscored by -8.0 PPG due to their defense that is allowing 30.3 PPG. Green Bay allowed the Rams to generate 416 yards of offense (with Clinton-Dix) last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This team is also allowing their opponents to average 4.68 Yards-Per-Carry which the Patriots will certainly take advantage. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. This will be Aaron Rodgers first game ever played in Foxboro as a professional — and that is an ominous circumstance for a quarterback that has led his team to win in just eight of his eighteen starts on the road against an AFC opponent. In those eighteen road games against the AFC, Rodgers has been sacked 50 times. Lastly, Green Bay has failed o cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Patriots looked flat on the road on Monday against the Bills — but they should play much better back at home tonight with the challenge of hosting Rodgers. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (472) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-18 |
Steelers v. Ravens -2 |
Top |
23-16 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (456) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (455). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-4) has lost three straight games with their 36-21 upset loss at Carolina last week as a -2.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (4-2-1) has won three straight games with their 33-18 win versus Cleveland last week as an -8.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore has suffered upsets in two straight games as that loss to the Panthers was preceded by an upset loss at home to the Saints. This has been a tough stretch for this Ravens team — and this is a must-win situation for them. John Harbaugh’s team has been reliable when responding to adversity as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has played four of their last five games on the road so returning home will help. The Ravens are outscoring their visitors by +18.6 PPG while outgaining them by +92.8 net YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by no more than 3 points. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against fellow AFC North opponents — and they are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games in the month of November. Pittsburgh remains inconsistent as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Steelers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Games on the road in the 1 PM ET time slot have been the Kryptonite for Big Ben Roethlisberger as he averages 275.7 passing YPG in his last six road games in the first slate of Sunday afternoon games which is more than 40 yards below the Steelers’ 318 passing YPG average this season. He has tossed only 8 TD passes in those last six road games at 1 PM ET while also throwing six interceptions. Roethlisberger also struggles in Baltimore where the Steelers have lost seven of their last ten games while accounting for 17 turnovers while being sacked 29 times which occurs once every fourteen passing attempts. Pittsburgh has also lost six of their last seven games in Baltimore. Overall, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against AFC North opponents — and they are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Ravens after losing by a 26-14 score at home back on September 30th. Lastly, this Pittsburgh team remains undisciplined in their play as they are last in the league in penalties and penalty yards — and this could make a big difference in an expected close game.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore remains a very good team despite two straight losses to two of the best teams of the NFC. Look for this team to step up with a crucial victory back at home against their arch rival. 25* NFL AFC North Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (456) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-18 |
Raiders v. 49ers UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
3-34 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: Oakland (1-6) has lost three straight games with their 42-28 loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a +3.5-point underdog. San Francisco (1-7) has lost six straight games with their 18-15 upset loss at Arizona last Sunday as a -2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders have lost three straight games by double-digits with that loss to the Colts. Oakland has played 32 of their last 46 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home including playing five of their last six games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points at home. The Raiders have also played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after suffering at least two straight double-digit losses. Oakland needs to play better on defense after surrendering 461 yards to Indianapolis. The Raiders have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 305 yards in their last games — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after giving up at least 30 points in their last game. Oakland will likely try to establish the run to help keep their defense off the field — the Raiders only had the ball for 23:30 minutes last week. This offense is down two of their top weapons from the beginning of the season with wide receiver Amari Cooper traded to the Cowboys and running back Marshawn Lynch placed on Injured Reserve with a groin injury. Doug Martin will be the main running back for the Raiders despite his averaging below 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in the last two seasons playing in Tampa Bay. Oakland goes back on the road where they are scoring only 13.0 PPG while averaging just 320.2 total YPG. The Raiders have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. San Francisco has played 23 of their last 40 games Under the Total after losing on the road to a divisional rival. They managed just 267 yards of offense against a not-so-great Arizona defense while blowing a 15-3 fourth-quarter lead. The 49ers are dealing with a host of injuries on that side of the ball with the most significant being to quarterback C.J. Beathard. The backup to Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with an injured wrist to his throwing hand which leaves him 50-50 to play tonight as of this afternoon’s updates — so this looks like one of those situations where even if he plays, he will not be close to 100%. The third-stringer at QB in Nick Mullens who has yet to take a snap in a regular season game. The Niners are also dealing with injuries at running back with both Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert listed as questionable with injuries. Both are expected to play tonight — but the nagging high ankle sprain to Breida has kept him under 75 yards of rushing in five straight games. This won’t likely stop head coach Kyle Shanahan from trying to run the football as his team has attempted at least 30 rushes in three of their last four games — and they rank 6th in the NFL by averaging 133.6 rushing YPG. The 49ers should have some success in moving the chains against the Raiders defense that is last in the NFL by surrendering 144.7 rushing YPG. Yet San Francisco only scores 19.3 PPG when they are playing at home. Their defense does hold their opponents to just 326.0 total YPG when playing at home in Levi Stadium. Moving forward, the 49ers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the month of November — and they have also played 8 of their last 11 games on a Thursday night Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: With both these teams struggling to move the ball on offense, expect these two teams hungry for a win attempt to win this game on the line of scrimmage. On the short week for both these teams, expect both coaches to look to go back to basics with the hopes of grinding out a win. That is a formula for a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-18 |
Saints v. Vikings UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
30-20 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-1) won their fifth straight game last week with their 24-23 win in Baltimore last week as a +2.5-point underdog. Minnesota (4-2-1) has won three straight games with their 37-17 win in New York against the Jets last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five contests. New Orleans has also played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less. Expect the Saints to once again focus on their ground game to win the Time of Possession battle which keeps their defense fresh while keeping a good offense off their home field. That was the formula for success last week against the Ravens as they ran the ball 39 times for 134 yards which helped them control Time of Possession for 33:31 minutes. New Orleans is also playing outstanding run defense as they are holding their opponents to just 2.87 Yards-Per-Carry while leading the league by allowing only 108 rushing YPG. The Saints have not allowed more than 77 rushing yards in four straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. Their pass defense received a boost this week with the acquisition of cornerback Eli Apple — I expect him to get some time on the field in this game in obvious passing situations despite just joining the team. New Orleans stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The Saints have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of October. Minnesota has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Additionally, the Vikings have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Mike Zimmer’s team has stepped up their play on the defensive side of the football. Over their last three games, they are holding their opponents to just 18.3 PPG along with just 298.7 total YPG. This unit is also the top 3rd down in the NFL — and they will be getting a boost in this game with their elite defensive end Everson Griffen cleared to play again by the team after dealing with some off-the-field issues. The Vikings offense is undermanned with running back Delvin Cook out with a hamstring and left tackle Riley Reiff also out with a foot injury. Minnesota is only scoring 19.0 PPG on their home field while averaging 348.7 total YPG which is more than 30 yards below their season average. But their visitors are averaging just 296.0 total YPG. The Vikings have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 6 of the last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the Minnesota offense exploded for 37 points last week, they have then played a decisive 36 of their last 52 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points — and this includes them playing seven of their last eight games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points. The Vikings had only 316 yards of offense in that win over the Jets but benefited from a +4 net turnover margin. Minnesota has then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least a +2 net turnover margin. And in their last 12 games as an underdog, the Vikings have played 8 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: While it might be tempting to think these two teams with potent passing attacks will get into a shootout, this shapes up to be a game where both teams will be looking to keep the other team’s offense off the field. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-18 |
49ers -1.5 v. Cardinals |
Top |
15-18 |
Loss |
-102 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (269) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Cardinals (270). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-6) has lost five straight games after their 39-10 loss to the LA Rams last Sunday as an 8-point underdog. Arizona (1-6) has lost two straight games with their 45-10 loss at home to Denver on Thursday Night Football last week as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINT(S): San Francisco will be playing with revenge on their minds from a 28-18 loss to the Cardinals three weeks ago. The Niners were 3-point favorites in that game and dominated the contest at the line of scrimmage by outgaining the Cardinals by +237 net yards but were stymied by a +5 net turnover margin to give that game away. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss. San Francisco should play better after being overwhelmed by the last remaining undefeated team in the league. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home to an NFC West rival. Despite winning only one game, this team is playing hard for second-year head coach Kyle Shanahan despite the disappointing season-ending injury to quarterback Jimmy Garappolo. San Francisco has lost three of their games by one scoring possession. Second-year QB C.J. Beathard has been solid under center this year save for last week’s game with the Rams. He is supported by a rushing attack that is second in the NFL that averages 127 rushing YPG that will be getting Matt Breida back from injury for this contest. The Niners have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. San Francisco needs to do a better job protecting the football as they suffered a -4 net turnover margin last week after enduring a -3 net turnover margin two weeks ago in Green Bay - and that was the game after their turnover-fest against this Cardinals team. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering at least a -2 net turnover margin in three straight games. Now San Fran goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record at home. The Niners have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in Arizona against the Cardinals. Arizona has only forced seven turnovers in their other six games this season besides the game where they were gifted five times by these 49ers. The Cardinals’ offense is a complete mess as was painfully demonstrated in that Thursday night game where they managed only 223 yards of offense while surrendering two pick-six interceptions returned for touchdowns in just the first quarter of that game. That was too much for rookie head coach Steve Wilks who promptly fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. As if it is McCoy’s fault for a conservative game plan — this is the same offensive head coach who helped Peyton Manning in Denver along with Philip Rivers in San Diego thrive behind dynamic passing attacks. He was replaced by Bryon Leftwich who is considered a rising star in the coaching ranks. But Leftwich cannot fix a broken offensive line that was already one of the worst units in the league before left guard Mike Iupati suffered his shoulder injury that will keep him out for this game. Leftwich has no experience calling plays as well — save for some authority given to him during the preseason. The Cardinals are last in the NFL in rushing yards (64.6 YPG), total yards (220.9 YPG), 3rd down success rate (23.1%) and Big Plays (26). Leftwich can install flashier schemes for rookie quarterback Josh Rosen — but if the young QB still struggles to grasp the playbook, becoming more aggressive with this offensive line might be the quickest route for a season-ending injury for their franchise quarterback. Wilks is struggling in his first year as a head coach — and one of the benefits McCoy brought was years of coaching experience including a stint as the head coach with the Chargers. This is all bad news for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when being listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: While both these teams have only won one game, the 49ers have been much more competitive in their games. Look for them to avenge their earlier loss to the Cardinals. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (269) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Cardinals (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-18 |
Dolphins v. Texans UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
23-42 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (103) and the Houston Texans (104). THE SITUATION: Miami (4-3) has lost three of their last four games with their 32-21 loss to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Monday. Houston (4-3) has won four straight games with their 20-7 upset win at Jacksonville last week as a +3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins have turned to Brock Osweiler at quarterback with Ryan Tannehill dealing with a shoulder injury. Osweiler was outstanding in his first start against the Bears where he led an offense that tallied 541 yards while averaging 7.21 Yards-Per-Play. The Miami offense slowed down last week against the Lions by generating 322 yards while averaging 6.44 YPP. The Dolphins have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after gaining at least 6.0 YPP in each of their last two games. Osweiler faces his toughest challenge yet against his former team with the Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien and his defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel likely licking their chops to get after their former quarterback who was an utter flop after signing a big contract with them. Osweiler will also be limited tonight with his wide receiving unit being a M*A*S*H unit right now with DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson all out for this game. After playing their last two games at home, the Dolphins go on the road where they are scoring 14.5 PPG while averaging just 242.0 total YPG. Miami has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, the Dolphins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. Furthermore, Miami is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a short-week Thursday game. Houston has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Texans won that game despite generating only 272 yards of offense with quarterback DeShaun Watson completing just 12 of 24 passes for 139 passing yards. The second-year pro is clearly not at 100% as he deals with a collapsed lung and broken rib. These injuries have limited his dual-threat capabilities as he has rushed for only 15 yards in his last two games. O’Brien wants his team grinding out low-scoring games as his team has not scored above 22 points more than once this year. The Texans have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to pass for more than 150 yards in their last game under O’Brien. The Houston defense is playing quite well as they have only 12.0 PPG along with just 260.0 total YPG over their last three games. The Texans held the Jaguars to only 70 rushing yards on 22 carries — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. With Miami’s depleted wide receiving corps, they will commit to running the football — but they will go against a Houston defense that is holding opposing rushers to just 3.35 Yards-Per-Carry. The Dolphins have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams wants a higher scoring game — especially when both of these teams are playing on a short week. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (103) and the Houston Texans (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-22-18 |
Giants +6 v. Falcons |
Top |
20-23 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) takes the field again after an embarrassing 34-13 loss at home to Philadelphia as a +1.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on national television. Atlanta (2-4) survived a 34-29 victory at home last Sunday against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has lost three straight games amidst internal drama about the play of Eli Manning. But this team gets an important piece back on offense in tight end Evan Engram who has been out with a knee injury. His presence on the field should help Manning while opening things up for Odell Beckham Jr. and their rookie running back Saquon Barkley. The Giants passing game has not been bad with Manning under center — they rank 13th in the league by averaging 260.8 passing YPG. But New York is scoring only 19.5 PPG which is 27th in the NFL. Engram should really help their Red Zone offense. As it is, the Giants have rebound to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they are 13-6-2 ATS in the last 21 games after a double-digit loss at home. New York did generate 401 yards of offense against the reigning Super Bowl Champions while outgaining the Eagles by +22 yards. The Giants have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points. New York trailed after the first thirty minutes of this game by a 24-6 score after going into halftime the previous week against Carolina by a 20-13 score. A better start tonight is critical — and this team has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games. New York goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They also have covered the point spread in when playing with extra rest and preparation after playing a Thursday game. Perhaps facing the M*A*S*H unit which is this Falcons team is just what the doctor ordered. Injuries on defense have decimated that unit for Atlanta — they rank second-to-last in the league by allowing 32.0 PPG while ranking 30th in the NFL by giving up 417.2 total YPG. Additionally, the Falcons rank last in the NFL by giving up 24 touchdowns so far this season — and they are last in the NFL by allowing their opponents to convert on 56.2% of their third downs so Manning should have a good game tonight. As the injuries have mounted, Atlanta has allowed 35.0 PPG over their last four contests. The Falcons outlasted the Buccaneers last week despite allowing 510 yards of offense (389 passing yards) and getting outgained by -93 yards. They benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game. But that does not bode well for Atlanta tonight as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 30 home games after a win at home. Matt Ryan did lead Atlanta to outscore the Bucs in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 400 yards in their last game. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of October under head coach Dan Quinn.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are looking to salvage seasons that started with high expectations. Atlanta’s fall has been more devastation when considering they made the Super Bowl just two seasons ago but have now experienced seemingly insurmountable injuries. Add running back Devonta Freeman and their veteran kicker Matt Bryant who are also out for this game. The Giants are getting healthier — and they have played pretty well on the road where they are only being gained by -3.0 net YPG. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-18 |
Bengals +6.5 v. Chiefs |
Top |
10-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (463) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (464). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 28-21 upset loss to Pittsburgh last week as a -1.5-point favorite. Kansas City (5-1) looks to rebound as well from their narrow 43-40 loss at New England last Sunday night as +3.5-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE THEN BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati played good enough to finally defeat their AFC North rivals in the Steelers — but they gave Ben Roethlisberger too much time to engineer a game-winning drive after they tied the score up late in the 4th quarter. Marvin Lewis’ team should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss as a home favorite to an AFC North rival. Cincinnati needs to play better on the defensive side of the football after allowing 369 passing yards to Pittsburgh. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. But this team is an underrated offensive machine under coordinator Bill Lazor as they rank 6th in the league by scoring 29.0 PPG. This scoring average rises to a 30.7 PPG mark when they are on the road — and they generating 417.3 total YPG away from home as well. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents. Kansas City saw their undefeated season end last week in front of a nationally televised audience — but this remains a team favored by the betting public with Patrick Mahomes almost pulling off the comeback win against the Patriots. The Chiefs have paid off bettors in all six of their games this season — but that is a dangerous bandwagon to jump on to now. As it is, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after riding a six-game point spread winning streak. The Chiefs offense is certainly dynamic as they have averaged at least 424 yards of offense with a 6.24 Yards-Per-Play average in each of their last three games. But the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after averaging at least 400 yards in three straight games. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. But with all those passing attempts are also possibilities to turn the ball over — and Mahomes has thrown multiple interceptions in two straight games. The problem for this Chiefs team is their porous defense that is allowing 28.7 PPG which is the sixth-most in the league. Kansas City really misses their veteran leader Eric Berry in their secondary who does not appear close to returning to the field. They will also be without linebacker Justin Houston who is dealing with an injured hamstring.
FINAL TAKE: Despite losing to the Steelers last week, the Bengals are an underappreciated team in the AFC. Expect a close game with the points being very valuable. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (463) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-18 |
Cowboys v. Redskins +2 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (472) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (471). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-2) looks to build off their 23-17 upset win over Carolina last week as a 1-point underdog. Dallas (3-3) hopes to build off their 40-7 blowout win over Jacksonville last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys are feeling pretty good about themselves after thoroughly dominating the Jaguars last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after a victory at home by at least three touchdowns. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a win by at least four touchdowns. Dallas is a perfect 3-0 at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +14.0 PPG — but it has been a completely different story when they go on the road where they are 0-3 with an average losing margin of -7.4 PPG. The Cowboys are scoring just 12.3 PPG away from home and generating a mere 275.7 total YPG while being outgained by -74.3 net YPG. The decline in offensive production is coming from Dak Prescott and their passing attack that is producing only 156 passing YPG on the road. And while this Dallas team has an underrated defense, they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 30 road games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. The Cowboys have also not covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Washington benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week against the Panthers — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. This team is doing a great job in protecting the football as they are second in the NFL with the fewest giveaways. The Skins did a great job of playing keep-away as they had a Time of Possession of 35:24 minutes in that game. But Washington will look to play better on defense after surrendering 6.03 Yards-Per-Play along with 269 passing yards. The Skins have covered the points spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 6.5 YPP — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Washington stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games at home with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Jay Gruden and the Skins coaching staff has certainly spent plenty of time in the offseason preparing for the Cowboys after losing their last four games against their NFC East rivals. Washington has not defeated Dallas since January 3rd of 2016 but that was in the Kirk Cousins era. The Skins have new hope to dispatch of their divisional rivals with Alex Smith under center. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Redskins (472) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-18 |
Texans v. Jaguars -3.5 |
Top |
20-7 |
Loss |
-102 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (468) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (467). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their ugly 40-7 upset loss at Dallas last week as a 3-point favorite. Houston (3-3) has won three straight games with their 20-13 win over Buffalo as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: I have no illusions about this Jacksonville team that seems to be a shadow of the group that almost upset New England in last year’s AFC Championship Game. The Jags have lost six of their last eleven games and have taken a (predictable) step back on defense. And the Blake Bortles situation only seems to be worsening before it reaches its inevitable end. That all said — and after getting burned on this team last week — we want to be investing in situations like this. This is an embarrassed team that has lost two straight games by at least 16 points — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread setback. Now after playing their last two games on the road, this team returns home where they are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 PPG and outgaining them by +167.6 net YPG. Bortles tends to play better on his home field where he is leading an offense that is generating 405.3 total YPG. The team traded for running back Carlos Hyde this week but he is not expected to suit up with the short turnaround — but they still have a capable running back in T.J. Weldon. While their offense managed only 204 yards last week, they ave then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Jags’ defense should also play better at home where they are limiting their opponents to just 13.7 PPG along with only 232.7 total YPG. Jacksonville is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Jaguars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on their home field. And in their last 10 games against fellow AFC South opponents, Jacksonville has covered the point spread 7 times. Houston may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Texans won that game despite Deshaun Watson passing for only 142 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to pass for more than 150 team yards. Watson is protected by one of the weakest offensive lines in the NFL — expect for him to be in trouble all afternoon against this stout and deep Jaguars defensive line. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Houston goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. And in their last 6 games against AFC South foes, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Even if Jacksonville is just a .500 team at this point, they should play one of their best games of the season at home against a divisional rival. 25* NFL AFC South Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (468) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-18 |
Titans +7 v. Chargers |
Top |
19-20 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (452). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-3) looks to bounce-back from a 21-0 shutout loss at home to Baltimore last Sunday as 2.5-point underdogs. Los Angeles (4-2) has won three straight games after their 38-14 triumph on the road at Cleveland as a small 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee’s offense was simply dormant last week as they managed only 106 yards of offense against the stout Ravens defense. The Titans need to get back to running the football — Derrick Henry ran the ball only 7 times in that loss last week. The shutout loss should get the attention of the offense in practice and meetings this week. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to generate at least 275 yards of offense. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and this includes then covering the point spread in six of their last eight contests after a setback. Tennessee also surrendered 361 yards of offense in that game to Baltimore — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 375 yards of offense. Defense is a strength of this team as the Titans ranked 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 17.8 PPG while also ranking 8th in the league by only giving up just 337.8 total YPG. These difficult trips to London test the character of teams — and I expect head coach Mike Vrabel’s team to respond with a strong effort. This team’s play on defense improves on the road as they limit their opponents to just 15.3 PPG and just 265.7 total YPG. Tennessee ranks 5th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 214.7 passing YPG — so they should be able to slow down Phillip Rivers and the Chargers’ passing attack. The Titans have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles has the difficult trip of traveling to London from the west coast — and they were already coming off a game on the road in Cleveland. A letdown looks possible for this Chargers team that is feeling pretty good about themselves right now. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Chargers are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while LA generated 449 yards of offense against the Browns defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a spirited effort from this Titans team after their embarrassing performance last week. Their strong defense and a commitment to winning the game at the line of scrimmage should help them keep things close. 25* NFL London Calling Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-18 |
Broncos v. Cardinals +2 |
Top |
45-10 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (301). THE SITUATION: Arizona (1-5) looks to bounce-back from their 27-17 loss at Minnesota last Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Denver (2-4) has lost four straight games after their 23-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona should play better in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. After playing their last two games on the road, the Cardinals return home where rookie quarterback Josh Rosen will be making his first start in front of the home fans. Rosen helps this offense because he has a better arm than Bradford which allows him the Arizona offense to design route schemes where the former UCLA star can hit tight windows. His pocket awareness also will help with their depleted offensive line. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Arizona is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record. Denver is reeling with second-year head coach Vance Joseph on the hot seat after their encouraging 2-0 start and Broncos’ fans already clamoring for Chad Kelly to replace the struggling Case Keenum who has already thrown 8 interceptions to just 7 touchdown passes. But the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread setback. Denver’s once strong defense has fallen apart as they rank 27th in the league by allowing 407.3 total YPG. It is the run defense that has let the Broncos down as they have allowed a whopping 225.7 rushing YPG over their last three contests with opposing rushers averaging 7.6 Yards-Per-Carry. This could be the breakout game for the Cardinals running back David Johnson who hopes to reimagine his form from 2015 where he generated 2118 yards from scrimmage before seeing his last two seasons derailed by injury. The Broncos are last in the NFL by allowing 161.3 rushing YPG. They gave 270 rushing yards last week to the Rams en route to surrendering 444 yards overall — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. To compound matters, the Broncos are dealing with a host of injuries including their spark-plug outside linebacker Shane Ray who has been declared out for this game with a knee. This team is also dealing with attrition on their offensive line with right tackle Jared Veldheer declared out tonight and left guard Ron Leary already on IR. Now Denver goes on the road on a short week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games. The Broncos have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These Thursday games are a test of a team’s character and a litmus test regarding the health of a team’s culture. These are two teams moving in opposite directions. Denver is in free-fall with injuries robbing Joseph of the opportunity to save his job. Arizona went through this last year but still managed to eke out an 8-8 season. Despite winning only one game so far this season, there is a sense of optimism with the Cardinals having gone younger after having the oldest roster in the league last year. Rosen and first-year head coach Steve Wilks offer this team hope which can be validated by the team earning their first win at home this season. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-18 |
49ers v. Packers OVER 46 |
Top |
30-33 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (277) and the Green Bay Packers (278). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-4) has lost three in a row with their 28-18 upset loss to Arizona last week as a 3-point favorite. Green Bay (2-2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-23 loss in Detroit as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers went into the locker rooms trailing by a 24-0 score in that game — and they left up to 13 points off the board with their place-kicker Mason Crosby missing four field goals along with an extra point. The veteran kicker should rebound at home tonight with a better effort. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Packers have played 39 of their last 49 games Over the Total after failing to score more than a field in the first half of their last contest. And they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when allowing at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Don’t be fooled by Green Bay’s good defensive numbers — they rank 4th in the NFL in total defense by allowing only 313.8 total YPG. But those numbers are skewed with their shutout victory at home over the hapless Buffalo offense two weeks ago. Take out that Bills game, then Packers are allowing 28.5 PPG along with 356.0 YPG. Green Bay has played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. They also have played a decisive 21 of their last 26 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents. The Packers have played 10 of their last 15 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Green Bay has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers held the Cardinals to just 220 yards of offense — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco’s defense ranks 28th in the NFL by allowing 29.2 PPG — and that number rises to a 30.3 PPG mark when playing on the road. They rank 26th in the NFL with just 9 sacks — and they are averaging a sack in only 22 passing plays. Aaron Rodgers will likely have plenty of clean pockets against this Niners defense that is making hits on the quarterback in just 13.5% of opposing teams’ passing attempts. San Francisco has played four straight games Over the Total — and they have not only played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing an Over while also playing 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points.
FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is scoring to score plenty of points in this one — but expect the 49ers offense to keep up find points against the overrated Packers’ defense. Niners’ QB C.J. Beathard was productive last week by completing 34 of 54 passes for 349 yards with TD passes. 25* NFL Monday Night Football O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (277) and the Green Bay Packers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-18 |
Chiefs v. Patriots UNDER 60 |
Top |
40-43 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (275) and the New England Patriots (276). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-0) remained undefeated last week with their 30-14 win over Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite. New England (3-2) has won two games in a row with their 38-24 win over Indianapolis last Thursday as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Patrick Mahomes is an exciting young quarterback — but as the Denver Broncos have already shown, he can be slowed down. The second-year QB “only” threw for 304 yards in that game which was the last time the Chiefs were on the road two weeks ago — and they exposed some tendencies that the Patriots’ defensive staff can exploit. More importantly, Kansas City scored only 27 points in that game — and a similar effort would keep this game Under the Total. Mahomes still have some technique issues while being too eager to leave the pocket — and I expect the New England defense to use take advantage of these flaws his game. The more tape that gets created on these new starting QBs, the more opposing coaching staffs find areas to attack. It is telling that Mahomes has only thrown one touchdown pass in his last 95 passing attempts. The Chiefs offense was also responsible for seven offensive penalties the last time they played in front of a hostile environment in that Broncos game. As it is, Kansas City has 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. The Chiefs game with the Broncos was their lowest scoring game of the season. Not only have they played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games but they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight contests. KC raced out to a 20-0 halftime lead against the Jaguars last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total owning a two-touchdown lead at halftime of their last game. The Chiefs have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New England has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Patriots are going to play ball-control offense and keep-away to burn time off the clock to frustrate Mahomes (and his head coach Andy Reid who almost always gets stymied by this tactic in the playoffs). New England has gone to halftime in their last two games with 24-3 and 24-0 leads — and they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. The Patriots generated 438 yards of offense last week against the Colts after gaining 449 yards in their previous game against the Dolphins — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in two straight games. Furthermore, not only has New England played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road but they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: Look, I know that scoring is up — and we have successfully take a bunch Overs this year. But this just looks like irrational exuberance that this Total was bet up into the 60s at one point as if this is a Big 12 contest. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (275) and the New England Patriots (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-18 |
Jaguars -3 v. Cowboys |
Top |
7-40 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (271) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (3-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 30-14 loss in Kansas City last week as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (2-3) has also lost two of their last three games with their 19-16 loss in overtime in Houston last Sunday night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Quarterback Blake Bortles did pass for 430 yards in that game while leading an offense that generated 502 yards of offense. But he also threw four interceptions which buried his team. He tends to play better after embarrassing efforts — and Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Jags surrendered 298 passing yards to the Chiefs in that game — but they are a decisive 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after not allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They should slam the door on this one-dimensional Cowboys’ offense that lacks credible targets in the passing game. Jacksonville will be able to play eight players in the box to slow down Ezekiel Elliott since Dallas cannot burn them down the field in the passing game given their outstanding cover corners led by Jalen Ramsey. Dallas (2-3) is a mess given the turmoil surrounding this team with the Dez Bryant fallout and now the questioning of head coach Jason Garrett after he decided to punt on 4th down in overtime against the Texans which contributed to that outright loss. Bad vibes in Big-D. They have not covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three contests. Frankly, they were fortunate to even see overtime against the Texans considering that they were outgained by a 462 to 292 margin in yards. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. This Cowboys team also does not retain much of a home-field advantage in Jerry World either — in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Bortles should do a better job protecting the football in this game where the offense does not have to play aggressively — this is his kind of game with the outstanding Jaguars’ defense leading the way. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (271) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-18 |
Bears v. Dolphins +5 |
Top |
28-31 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (256) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (255). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-1) has won three straight games after they dismantled Tampa Bay two weeks ago by a 48-10 score as a 3-point favorite. Miami (3-2) has lost two straight games with their 27-17 loss at Cincinnati as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are the toast of the NFL right now with their intimidating defense led by Khalil Mack and their new wave offense under rookie head coach Matt Nagy. But before we anoint this team as the reincarnation of the 1985 Bears, let’s remember that this team has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home at Soldier Field. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a bye week. Nagy’s game planning was clicking on all cylinders against the Buccaneers defense as they raced out to an incomparable 38-3 lead at halftime of that game while generating a total of 483 yards of offense. But the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They were some cracks in the armor of this Chicago defense as they surrendered 251 passing yards in that game — and they are then a decisive 18-39-1 ATS in their last 58 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And in their last 18 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of these contests. Miami will be looking to play better in this game after following up getting trounced in New England they blew a 14-0 halftime lead against the Bengals in Cincinnati last week. They were done in the second-half by a 22-yard interception return for a touchdown as well as a 19-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Dolphins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than a field in the first half of their last game. This is a scrappy group that head coach Adam Gase has kept together this season after they let go of some of their underperforming big personalities in this offseason. This team returns home where they are tough to play against. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog getting less than 7 points. UPDATE: the reports coming in late Saturday night is that QB Ryan Tannehill has an ankle sprain and is listed as questionable for this game. The point spread is moving is adjusting with the Dolphins getting more than 4 points in most locations. Brock Osweiler will go under center for Miami if Tannehill cannot go. While that is a downgrade, that is a QB with plenty of experience. The recipe for success with Miami remains winning this game on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
FINAL TAKE: I hate this situation for the Bears. I don’t like it when teams on hot streaks go into their bye week as it tends to cool off their momentum. And speaking of cooling off, this Chicago team will likely be dreaming of their hotel air conditioners or at least the crisp fall air in the Windy City about ten minutes into this game at South Beach where it remains hot as blazes. Former Miami Dolphin Brian Cox claimed that this Bears team is going to “melt” before this game is over — we have certainly seen the Patriots perform poorly in the Miami heat once it turns into fall in the north. The Dolphins should play very well in this game. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (256) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-18 |
Eagles v. Giants UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
34-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (103) and the New York Giants (104). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-3) has lost two straight games after their 23-21 loss at home to Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point favorite. New York (1-4) has also lost two in a row after their hearts were broken by Graham Gano’s 63-yard field goal which allowed the Panthers to steal a 33-31 victory in Carolina as a 7-point home favorite over the Giants.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a gut check game for both these NFC East teams — and I look for both teams to attempt to impose their will at the line of scrimmage on this short week game. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Eagles have lost these last two games by 5 combined points — and they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing their last two games by 6 points or less. Philly has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. The Eagles are banged up on offense especially with their rushing attack. Running back Jay Ajayi was put on Injured Reserve with his ACL injury while Darren Sproles will remain out for this game hamstring. Corey Clement will play but he is still dealing with a groin — and Philly’s All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson was added the injury list this morning being questionable with an ankle. As it is, Philadelphia is scoring only 20.6 PPG which is 25th in the NFL. Yet despite this attrition, the Eagles are likely to try to run the ball behind Wendell Smallwood against this Giants’ defense that ranks 27th in the league by allowing 124.4 rushing YPG. Philadelphia is still playing stout on the defensive side of the football as they are allowing only 20.8 PPG which is 7th in the NFL. They have not allowed more than 77 rushing yards this season — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in five straight games. This defense ranks second in the league by only allowing 66.4 rushing YPG — and opposing rushers are averaging 2.78 YPC. But the Eagles did give up 298 passing yards last week — yet Philly has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game. New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Those 31 points they scored against the Panthers were the first time that the Giants reached the 30-point threshold in their last 37 games. But this remains an unbalanced offense even with rookie Saquon Barkley as they are scoring only 20.8 PPG which is 23rd in the NFL while averaging just 75.6 rushing YPG which ranks 28th in the league. Back at home in the Meadowlands, the Giants are scoring only 16.5 PPG while averaging just 311.5 total YPG. With tight end Evan Engram not yet recovered from his knee injury, quarterback Eli Manning has only three viable targets in the passing game in Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard along with Barkley out of the backfield. This lack of diversity should help defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz to dial up a good defensive game plan. Manning did pass for 326 yards last week against the Carolina defense — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards. New York returns home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total. The Giants have also played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog — and this includes them playing eight of their last ten games Under the Total at home as an underdog. And in their last 5 games against fellow NFC East foes, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: The loser of this game finds themselves in a big hole in the NFC East standings. My expectation of both coaches wanting to be physical and win at the line of scrimmage should translate into both teams looking establish their rushing attack — and this will shorten the length of the game. 25* NFL NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (103) and the New York Giants (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-08-18 |
Redskins v. Saints OVER 51 |
Top |
19-43 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (477) and the New Orleans Saints (478). THE SITUATION: Washington (2-1) returns to the field after their bye week after upsetting Green Bay two weeks ago by a 31-17 score as a 2.5-point underdog. New Orleans (3-1) enters this game coming off their 33-18 win at New York against the Giants as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. New Orleans generated 389 yards in that contest with the Giants — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Drew Brees leads a powerful offense that is scoring 34.2 PPG while averaging 418.2 total YPG — and they get running back Mark Ingram back from his four-game suspension which gives them a power running back while keeping the electric Alvin Kamara fresh. But the Saints’ defense has been another story — and they are allowing their visitors to score 33.0 PPG along with averaging 428.0 total YPG in the Superdome this season. New Orleans has played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Saints have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on Monday Night Football. The New Orleans lack of a pass rush will likely give Washington quarterback Alex Smith plenty of time to pick apart their secondary. The Saints are fourth from the bottom of the league with just 18 hits on the quarterback and their nine sacks are 12th from the bottom. The Skins have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Washington has also played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total in the month of October. Furthermore, the Skins have played 15 of their last 21 games on the road Over the Total — and this includes them playing seven of their last eight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is in the low-50s for this game. Scoring is up this season with the offseason rule changes helping the offenses in protecting the quarterback and in being more liberal in defining what a catch is. Plenty of these games are still finishing below the number — but both these teams tend to play higher-scoring games so I do expect this to be a shootout. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (477) and the New Orleans Saints (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-18 |
Cowboys v. Texans UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
16-19 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the Houston Texans (476). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-2) looks to build off their 26-24 win over Detroit yesterday as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (1-3) earned their first victory of the season last Sunday with their 37-34 win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Dallas generated 414 yards of offense last week against the Lions — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But now the Cowboys go back on the road where they are scoring just 10.5 PPG along with averaging only 267.5 total YPG. Dallas has played 21 of their last 27 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Cowboys defense surrendered 382 total yards last week — but they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Dallas defense is underrated — they are allowing only 20.0 PPG along with just 294.0 total YPG on the road so far this season. They are third in the NFL in sacks led by linebacker DeMarcus Lawrence who leads the league with his 5.5 sacks. He should feast on this terrible Texans offensive line that has allowed 45 hits to the quarterback which is the most in the NFL. Deshaun Watson has been sacked 17 times this year which is the second most in the NFL. He did pass for 375 yards while leading his offense to 466 total yards against the suspect Colts’ defense — but Houston has played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Texans have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while the underachieving Houston defense gave up 478 yards last week, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas lacks down-the-field targets at wide receiver while the Texans have one of the least capable offensive lines in the league. With these two offenses, both burdened by significant flaws, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the Houston Texans (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-18 |
Raiders v. Chargers -4.5 |
Top |
10-26 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (468) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (467). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-2) looks to build off their 29-27 win over the 49ers last week as a 10.5-point favorite. Oakland (1-3) earned their first victory of the season last week with their 45-42 overtime win at home against Cleveland.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders have been a hot mess under head coach Jon Gruden — they have been consistently disorganized while players and coaches are making too many mental mistakes. They were given a few gifts from the referees to survive that game with the Browns. But Oakland has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. The Raiders are generating plenty of offense — QB Derek Carr passed for 437 yards last week to lean an offense that gained 565 total yards. Carr passes for 325 yards in his previous game — but the Raiders have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 300 passing yards in two straight games. That offense has suffered a big blow with the need to place their veteran left tackle Donald Penn on Injured Reserve. Carr has not been nearly as effective when playing on the road where he has lost eight of his last nine games while committing 13 turnovers. While the Raiders may have a large contingent of fans at this game with it being played on Los Angeles where there is not a ton of love for the Chargers, this is still an unfamiliar playing environment for Carr. The Oakland offense will not have much room for error considering how terrible their defense is — they are allowing 30.7 PPG and the 123 points they have allowed is worst in the NFL. Their defense without Khalil Mack is last in both sacks and hits on the quarterback. Philip Rivers will have a clean pocket with all the time he needs to pick apart this Raiders’ secondary. Rivers enjoys a 15:2 touchdown to interception ratio over his last six starts going back to last season. The Chargers should play well in this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while LA allowed 288 passing yards to the 49ers, they are then 3-1-1 ATS after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Chargers are playing high-scoring games with all four of their contests seeing at least combined 51 points scored. But Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after seeing at least 50 combined points scored in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Raiders just surrendered 42 points to Baker Mayfield who was making his first professional start. Mayfield may have tons of potential — but Philip Rivers is a bad mad with plenty of healthy weapons right now. While the Chargers do not enjoy much of a favorable home crowd, these critics fail to appreciate that familiarity plays a large role in creating home field advantage. 25* NFL AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (468) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-18 |
Titans v. Bills +6 |
Top |
12-13 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (458) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-3) looks to bounce-back from their 22-0 shutout loss at Green Bay as an 8.5-point underdog. Tennessee (3-1) has won three straight games after their 26-23 upset win over Philadelphia in overtime as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen was even worse on the tape that his stats indicate. He completed just 16 of 33 passes for 151 yards with two interceptions. The rookie is going to be inconsistent — but remember how good he was two weeks ago at Minnesota against a stout Vikings defense where he completed an efficient 15 of 22 passes for 196 yards with a touchdown pass and no picks. The Bills should play closer to the one that made the playoffs last season as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Buffalo is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. Returning home will help after playing their last two games on the road — and the Bills have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 69 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Allen should be helped by LeSean McCoy who continues to see his injured ribs improve — he will be running against a mediocre Titans’ run defense that is allowing 118 rushing YPG along with 4.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. This Buffalo defense needs to play closer to the team that stymied the Vikings in Minnesota two weeks ago. The Bills surrendered 423 yards last week to the Packers — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Tennessee risks being overconfident in this game as they are favored for the first time all season. The Titans have pulled off three straight upset victories — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win as an underdog. Tennessee averaged 6.11 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have fled to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight road games after averaging at least 8.0 YPP. The Titans struggle to move the ball away from home as they are scoring only 14.5 PPG on the road while averaging 284.5 total YPG. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Titans are an awful 9-26-3 ATS in their last 38 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Look for Tennessee to be flat in this contest after pulling off three straight upsets. The Bills should play much better than their uninspired effort last week. 25* NFL AFC Underdog of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (458) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-18 |
Colts v. Patriots UNDER 52 |
Top |
24-38 |
Loss |
-108 |
24 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the New England Patriots (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-3) has lost two straight games after their 37-34 loss in overtime at home to Houston on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. New England (2-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 38-7 blowout win over Miami on Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots got back to their winning ways by running the football — they ran the ball 40 times of 175 yards led by their rookie running back Sony Michel who contributed 112 yards on 25 carries. This helped New England generate 449 yards of offense overall while having them control the clock for 36:22 minutes of that game. The Patriots have 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last contest. New England has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. This effort should renew some confidence for this team — but after failing to meet point spread expectations, they should appreciate that they still have little margin for error. Running the football to burn time off the clock protects the defense which has been a key part of the Patriots’ success over the years. They are once-again playing “bend but don’t break” defense as they are allowing only 21.0 PPG despite surrendering 348.0 total YPG. Moving forward, New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Patriots have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Tom Brady may not have the services of tight end Rob Gronkowski who is questionable for this game with an ankle injury. While Julian Edelman returns from his four-game suspension, a limited Gronkowski leaves this Pats’ offense without credible down-the-field threats (with the adjective “credible” serving to exclude the recently acquired Josh Gordon). New England has played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of October — and in their last 5 appearances for Thursday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total 4 times. Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the month of October — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their previous two games. The Colts have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Andrew Luck offered a rebuttal to those critics that were wondering “what was wrong” with him (after head coach Frank Reich chose to have backup Jacoby Brissett throw a long Hail Mary pass the previous week) by completing 40 of 62 passes for 464 yards with four touchdown passes against the Texans defense. But Luck’s weapons are injured with his favorite tight end Jack Doyle out for this game with a hip injury and his top wide receiving threat in T.Y. Hilton doubtful with a hamstring. Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts defense surrendered a whopping 466 yards to Houston in that overtime loss — but they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Indy does get running back Robert Turbin back on offense which should help their ground game along with the advance of their goal of burning time off the clock to keep Brady off the field. Lastly, Indianapolis has played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total set past the 50-point threshold as the oddsmakers adjust for the spike in passing numbers which has led to an increase in scoring, expect this game to finish below that number. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the New England Patriots (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-18 |
Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
27-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Denver Broncos (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (3-0) remained undefeated last week with their 38-27 win over San Francisco last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-14 loss at Baltimore as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Total is in the mid-50s for this game given the dynamic play of quarterback Patrick Mahomes who is leading an offense that is scoring 39.3 PPG. He led the Chiefs to score 42 points in their previous game in Pittsburgh — but Kansas City has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. And while the Chiefs have played all three of their games Over the Total this year, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. KC has generated 449 and 384 yards in each of their last two games — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Chiefs only rushed the ball for 77 yards last week — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Kansas City surrendered 178 rushing yards to the 49ers — and they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Chiefs have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games. Denver has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The game plan for Vance Joseph’s team will likely be to run the football to shorten the game and limit the number of offensive possessions that Mahomes and this Chiefs’ offense will have in this game. Rookies Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman have combined to rush for 350 yards — and they join Devontae Booker to form a potent committee of running backs to take the pressure off their QB Case Keenum. But this Broncos offense has scored only 34 combined points over their last two games. Denver did limit the Ravens to rush for only 77 yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Broncos return home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Denver has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of October — and the Broncos have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: As last night’s Baltimore-Pittsburgh showdown demonstrated, it does not take much for what looks like an offensive shootout to slow down enough to finish below a combined points total in the 50s. Denver has to run the football to win the Time of Possession battle — and their zeal to accomplish that task should ensure this game finishing below the Total. 25* NFL AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Denver Broncos (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-18 |
Ravens +3 v. Steelers |
Top |
26-14 |
Win
|
103 |
4 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (275) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-1) enters this game coming off a 27-14 win at home hosting Denver last week as a 5.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-1-1) looks to build off their 30-27 upset win at Tampa Bay on Monday night as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: The Steelers struggle with consistency as of late — they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a straight-up win while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on a short week on a Sunday after playing on Monday Night Football. Their offense is getting a solid contribution from running back James Connor who has been pressed into duty given the holdout of Le’Veon Bell. But Connor has 70 touches already and risks losing steam without much help in the backfield — especially when playing on a short week. The absence of Bell has put more of the burden on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger who passed for 353 yards against the porous Buccaneers defense (that just made Mitchell Trubisky look like a Hall of Famer today). The Steelers are averaging 363 passing YPG in their first three games this season without Bell. But not only has Pittsburgh failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 275 passing YPG in their last three contests. This team has become sloppy under head coach Mike Tomlin as they are the most penalized team in the NFL entering Week Four by a wide margin with the next most penalized team committing nine fewer infractions. The Steel Curtain defense has also taken a step (or two) back in the wrong direction since losing Ryan Shazier at linebacker. Since he suffered that spinal injury last year, the Steelers have allowed their last ten opponents to score 28.8 PPG. Pittsburgh returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games. And in their last 4 games against fellow AFC North opponents, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread all 4 times. Baltimore lead the NFL in total defense by limiting their opponents to just 273.0 total YPG. But what might be surprising is that this team is fifth in the NFL by scoring 32.3 PPG. Going back to last season, the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in six of their last eight contests. Baltimore is a perfect 12 for 12 in the Red Zone in translating those opportunities into touchdowns. Quarterback Joe Flacco is having one of his best seasons as he clearly benefited from being healthy for training camp and the preseason. The veteran completed 25 of 40 passes last week for 277 yards — and the Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against fellow AFC North foes. Lastly, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 road games as an underdog getting no more than 3 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have an axe or two to grind with their arch rivals after the Steelers swept both games between these two teams. Baltimore might pull the upset outright — but taking the points will certainly be valuable in what should be a close game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (275) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-18 |
Browns v. Raiders -1 |
Top |
42-45 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-3) is still looking for their first win of the season after they lost in Miami last week by a 28-20 score as a 3-point underdog. Cleveland (1-1-1) earned their first victory in two seasons last week with their 21-17 win over the New York Jets as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oakland dominated that game with the Dolphins when looking at the statistics. They outgained Miami by a 434 to 373 yardage edge. They churned out 25 first downs while holding the Dolphins to only 13 first downs. The Raiders also controlled the clock for 38:31 minutes of the game. Those are good fundamentals moving forward which should produce good results — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a game where they controlled Time of Possession for at least 34 minutes while also generating at least 24 first downs. Oakland should respond with a good effort as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread setback. It has been easy to criticize head coach Jon Gruden in his return to coaching as he has made some moves that deserve scrutiny. But the Raiders have also faced a very difficult schedule: the LA Rams, Denver Broncos and them the Dolphins last week have a combined 8-1 record entering Week Four. Furthermore, Oakland has been competitive in all these games as they have enjoyed second-half leads in all these games before suffering from letdowns in the 4th quarter. It was only in 2016 that quarterback Derek Carr tied an NFL record by engineering seven 4th quarter comebacks to win games — so these blown leads are a relatively new phenomenon for this Raiders’ quarterback. Carr is completing 76.6% of his passes so far this season. Cleveland is feeling as good about themselves in years after rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield came off the bench to rally the team from a 14-3 deficit to defeat the Jets on national television on Thursday Night Football. But traveling out west to make his first professional start will be a difficult assignment for Mayfield. The Browns are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games as an underdog. The Browns benefited from a +3 net turnover margin in their win against the Jets who were also relying on a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold. Cleveland has played their last two games Under the Total with the help of their stout defense. But the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing two straight games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Gruden has assembled a group of veterans on his roster who know full well this is a desperate moment for the team. The Raiders have a big edge over the Browns at quarterback in this game — and Cleveland has not felt what it was like to play a game after a victory since when Barack Obama was President. 25* National Football League Game of the Month with the Oakland Raiders (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-18 |
Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 |
Top |
7-38 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (252) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (251). THE SITUATION: New England (1-2) looks to bounce-back from their 26-10 loss at Detroit as a 7-point favorite last Sunday night. Miami (3-0) remains undefeated last week with their 28-20 win over Oakland.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England has endured two straight upset losses — but those games were on the road with some extenuating circumstances. That first loss was in Jacksonville with the Jaguars looking to avenge a playoff loss to New England — and then last week’s game was against a desperate Lions team that was winless and coached by their former defensive coordinator, Matt Patricia. Returning home should help the Patriots right their ship. This team is an incredible 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 games after a straight-up loss and they have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. New England lost that game with the Lions because they were able to successfully play keep-away — the Patriots only had the ball for 20:45 minutes of that game. That explains why New England managed only 209 yards of offense — but they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while New England allowed 414 yards in that contest, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 350 yards. Furthermore, the Patriots have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC East opponents. And in their last 53 games at home, New England is a dominant 35-16-2 ATS. Miami entered this season under-the-radar as they felt they improved the culture of their football team by letting some of their big ego players go elsewhere. The Dolphins defeated the Raiders last week despite being outgained by -61 net yards. The Miami defense surrendered 434 yards in that game including 345 passing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. QB Ryan Tannehill completed 17 of 23 passes for 289 yards in that win but the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back not the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 contests. Furthermore, Miami is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against fellow AFC East opponents. The Dolphins have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight trips to New England.
FINAL TAKE: This is a must-win game for the Patriots who cannot afford to fall three games behind the Dolphins in the AFC East standings. New England will also remember their 27-20 upset loss as a 10-point favorite the last time these two teams played on a Thursday night last December 11th. The home team has covered the point spread in this series in 11 of the last 12 encounters between these two football teams. 25* NFL AFC East Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (252) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-18 |
Vikings v. Rams UNDER 50 |
Top |
31-38 |
Loss |
-126 |
29 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-1-1) looks to bounce-back on a short week after being upset on Sunday at home against Buffalo by a 27-6 score despite being a big 16.5-point favorite in that game. Los Angeles (3-0) remained undefeated last week after winning the “Battle of Los Angeles” with their 35-23 victory over the Chargers at home as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams defense has been outstanding this season by allowing only 12.0 PPG along with just 296.0 total YPG. Los Angeles is dealing with injuries in their secondary with cornerback Aqib Talib out with an ankle injury and Marcus Peters questionable with a calf issue. But with Aaron Donald and now Ndamukong Suh leading an outstanding defensive line, the Rams defense is not giving opposing quarterbacks much time in the pocket to throw the ball down field. The Rams were 4th in the NFL with 48 sacks last season without Suh — the former Dolphins’ defensive tackle along with Donald accounted for a whopping 68.5 pressures on the quarterback last year. Los Angeles did allow 7.12 Yards-Per-Play to the Chargers in their victory last week — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Furthermore, the Rams outgained the Chargers by +165 net yards after dominating Arizona the previous week by outgaining them by +295 net yards. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +150 net YPG. Additionally, the Rams have played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota (1-1-1) has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Vikings only ran the ball six times in that game for 14 yards with their star running back Dalvin Cook dealing with a hamstring injury that he leaves him questionable for this game being played on a short week. Minnesota is getting solid production from their new quarterback Kirk Cousins who completed 40 of 55 passes for 296 yards in that loss — but Mike Zimmer has to be displeased with his run-to-pass ratio as a defensive-minded head coach. Look for the Vikings to attempt to win this game on the line-of-scrimmage — which will burn time off the clock — as they did last year when the dominated these Rams by a 24-7 score where they only allowed 254 yards of offense. Minnesota is holding their opponents to only 323.0 total YPG - but this number could get even better moving forward when considering that the Vikings led the NFL by holding their opponents to only 275.9 total YPG last year. Zimmer’s teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game when the Vikings passed for at least 250 yards. They also have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Minnesota has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total as the underdog. And in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home, the Vikings have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, while the Vikings’ star defensive end Everson Griffen will not be playing in this game as he deals with some significant off-the-field issues, Minnesota is still loaded with talent on their deep defensive line (particular on the ends).
FINAL TAKE: This game might be a preview of a future showdown between these two teams in the NFC Playoffs (perhaps the NFC Championship Game). On a short week, I think both head coaches will try to impose their will while sending a message about who is the tougher team by winning a game fought in the trench warfare. That style of play should help this game finish lower-scoring than expected. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-24-18 |
Steelers v. Bucs OVER 54 |
Top |
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (489) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1-1) is still looking for their first win of the season after losing at home to Kansas City by a 42-37 score despite being 4.5-point favorites in that game last Sunday. Tampa Bay (2-0) looks to continue their success after they upset Philadelphia at home last week by a 27-21 score as a 3-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Steelers are heavily dependent on Big Ben Roethlisberger and their passing game with running back Le’Veon Bell still holding out. More passing generally means more stoppage of play which leads to more plays and possessions on offense with more scoring opportunities for both teams. The opposite dynamic was in play last night with Detroit committed to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep Tom Brady off the field. Pittsburgh will likely prepare to play a high-scoring game tonight. The Steelers have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Roethlisberger tossed 60 passes last week — completing 39 of them for 452 yards with three touchdown passes while leading an offense that totaled 475 yards overall. Pittsburgh has played 4 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 22 of their last 34 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. But the Pittsburgh defense surrendered 449 yards to the Chiefs in that loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Pittsburgh really misses their injured linebacker Ryan Shazier. They have allowed 29.0 PPG since his scary neck injury last year after holding their previous seven opponents to only 17.7 PPG in Shazier’s last seven games with the team. Moving forward, the Steelers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing the best football of his career as he has passed for more than 400 yards while tossing four TD passes in each of his first two games. With a questionable running game and two rookie cornerbacks starting in the secondary given injuries to incumbent starters Vernon Hargreaves and Brent Grimes, the Buccaneers formula for success will likely remain to be relying on Fitzpatrick’s arm. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. But defense remains a vulnerability of this team after allowing the Eagles to accumulate 412 yards last week — and they have played 11 go their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 4 of the last 5 games Over the Total in the month of September.
FINAL TAKE: Like last night’s New England-Detroit contest also had a high Total above the 50-point threshold. Handicapping Over/Unders requires an appreciation for the expected tempo of the game in question. While I expected the Lions to fully commit to running the football last night which serves to decrease the number of offensive plays and possessions for both teams, the Steelers and Buccaneers are likely to attempt plenty of passes tonight which has the opposite effect. Expect a shootout between these two teams in a league that is seeing higher scores. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (489) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
Patriots v. Lions UNDER 55 |
Top |
10-26 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (487) and the Detroit Lions (488). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-20 loss at Jacksonville last Sunday as a 2-point favorite. Detroit (0-2) remained winless so far this season last Sunday when they lost in San Francisco by a 30-27 score as a 6-point underdog.
REASON TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: One of the storylines of this game is that rookie head coach Matt Patricia will be facing his former team in the Patriots that he previously served as their defensive coordinator. Patricia certainly knows the New England way as well as Tom Brady and the Patriots’ tendencies — and that will help in scheming again his former team. But Patricia also came to the Lions with a mandate to make this team more physical on both sides of the football — and that starts with running the football. So far in Detroit’s first two games, this mission has been lost. The Lions have only rushed the ball 33 times in two games this season with quarterback Matthew Stafford attempting 52 and 53 passes in their first two games. Well, I think between hell and high water, Patricia is going to commit to his team running the football tonight against his old team — both to finally embrace the blueprint both he and former Patriot brain trust member and now Detroit general manager Bob Quinn both want for this team. Running the football also has the benefit of keeping Brady off the field while also helping his defense by keeping them rested. As it is, the Lions have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing two games where they attempted at least 40 passes. All this passing helped the Lions give up 78 points in their first two games — but they have played 3 straight games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests. Furthermore, while Detroit has surrendered 169 and 190 rushing yards in their first two games, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in two straight games. The Lions did generate 427 yards last week against the 49ers — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total adder gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Additionally, Detroit has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. New England is not clicking on all cylinders on offense after managing only 302 yards last week against the Jaguars. While they faced an outstanding defense last week, this Patriots team is depleted at the wide receiver position — and the recently acquired Josh Gordon is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury after he came over in that trade with Cleveland. New England did allow 480 yards last week in that loss but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss while also playing 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And in their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, the Patriots have played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Total opened in the 50 range which was already pretty high — but it has since been bet up to the 55 range in many locations. I consider those additional 5 or so points just added value to a strong Under situation given the zeal the Lions should (finally) show in running the darn football. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (487) and the Detroit Lions (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
Packers v. Redskins +3 |
Top |
17-31 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (476) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (475). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a sluggish 21-9 upset loss at home last week to Indianapolis as a 6-point favorite. Green Bay (1-0-1) kissed their sister last week but probably feel pretty good about their 29-29 tie with Minnesota considering that they were 2-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington should respond with a strong effort in this game as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Skins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home while they have also covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a double-digit upset loss as a home favorite laying at least 6 points in that game. Washington was feeling pretty good about themselves after a dominating opening win on the road at Arizona by a 24-6 score. Head coach Jay Gruden has an under-appreciated defense that is poaching Alabama defensive talent. Defensive end Jonathan Allen was off to a great start last year before his rookie season was cut short after five games with a foot injury. He reunited this year with nose tackle Da’Ron Payne whom the Skins drafted with their first-round pick this offseason. With cornerback Josh Norman leading the way, Washington was 9th in the NFL in pass defense. They collapsed to finishing last in the league in run defense but they were much better in those first five games with Allen in the mix. This season, the Skins are second in the NFL by allowing only 13.5 PPG while leading the league by giving up only 247.0 total YPG. They should play better on offense this afternoon behind QB Alex Smith as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. This will be the Packers first game away from Lambeau Field this season. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when laying no more than a field goal. Green Bay pulled out the tie with the Vikings last week after getting outgained by 129 net yards last week. They survived that game due to a touchdown they scored after blocking a punt in the end zone. This team could easily be winless entering this game if what was not for the miracle comeback from Aaron Rodgers on Sunday Night Football in the opening week of the season. But Rodgers is still gimpy and only one bad hit away from the Pack relying on the disastrous DeShone Kizer under center. As it is, Rodgers is not the same quarterback away from Green Bay as he holds only a 43-42 career record on the road while losing ten of his last seventeen starts on the road. Furthermore, I think the Packers are at a disadvantage on both sides of the line of scrimmage in this game against the Skins. Green Bay is averaging only 83 rushing YPG while giving up 103 rushing YPG. Lastly, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The opportunity to take Washington as a home dog in this spot is a great situation for us. Let’s attack. 25* NFL NFC Underdog of the Month with the Washington Redskins (476) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
Saints +2.5 v. Falcons |
Top |
43-37 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (467) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (468). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to build off their narrow 21-18 win over Cleveland last Sunday. Atlanta (1-1) also earned their first win of the season last Sunday with their 31-24 win over Carolina.
THE SITUATION: The Falcons are simply ravaged with injuries right now. The defense took two devastating losses in their opening game of the season against the Eagles when safety Keanu Neal and Deion Jones both suffered what are likely season-ending injuries. Those two players might very well be the best two players that head coach Dan Quinn has on that side of the ball. To make matters worse when facing Drew Brees and company, Atlanta will be without last year’s first-round draft pick in Takkarist McKinley after the defensive end was downgraded to being out with a groin injury. The Falcons surrendered 318 passing yards last week to the Panthers that does not have the weapons that the Saints enjoy — and Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. On offense, the Falcons are also without their top running back DeVonta Freeman who is dealing with an ankle injury — his absence will not make things easier for this team in the Red Zone. Of course, Atlanta still has wide receiver Julio Jones — but he has only one touchdown catch in his last nine games. Jones has not saved his prolific games for the Saints either as he has only one touchdown catch in his last eight games against New Orleans. These are all bad signs for a Falcons team that tends to suffer letdowns. Not only has Atlanta failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win but they have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after a win at home against an NFC South rival. Even worse, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 29 home games after a win at home. New Orleans has yet to cover a point spread this season — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to cover point spread expectations in each of their last two games. Both of the Saints’ first two games have finished Under the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after playing two straight Unders. Furthermore, New Orleans has lost the turnover battle in each of their first two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after suffering at least a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. Brees owns a 16-9 career record against Atlanta and should be prepared to outgun Matt Ryan in this one. Fading the Saints away from the Superdome had a brief period of success — but it is a sucker’s bet these days (if that is one’s only reason). New Orleans has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road while also covering the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on grass.
FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 7 of the last 9 meetings between these two teams. I just hate the injuries that Atlanta has endured so far this season — their losses on defense will be too much to overcome when facing Brees while being undermanned on offense without Freeman and still working out their Red Zone issues with offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. 25* NFL NFC South Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (467) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-20-18 |
Jets v. Browns UNDER 41 |
Top |
17-21 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 20-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (0-1-1) also looks to rebound from a 21-18 loss in New Orleans as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets fell behind early in their game with the Dolphins as they went into halftime with a 20-0 deficit. Quarterback Sam Darnold did complete 25 of 41 passes for 334 yards — but he also tossed two interceptions. This is a very tough challenge for the rookie since not only is this game being played on a short week against a Gregg Williams-coached defense that will show him plenty of exotic looks but this is his third game in just eleven days which is a very difficult way to start an NFL career. Don’t be surprised if Darnold looks overwhelmed at times in this game. As it is, the Jets have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite against an AFC East rival. New York has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Now the Jets go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Cleveland has played 21 of their last 29 home games Under the Total after a loss by less than 6 points. Don’t blame the Browns for that loss in the Big Easy as they held the potent Saints’ offense to just 275 yards of offense. This is a unit that is emerging into one of the better units in the league. Led by second-year defensive end Myles Garrett, Cleveland has already registered 7 sacks this year which is 5th best in the NFL. Darnold did experience trouble with pressure last week against the Dolphins defensive line — so this is a significant area of concern. But the Browns are struggling on the offensive side of the football where their QB Tyrod Taylor has been sacked 10 times. Cleveland has only scored 6 first-half points in their first two games this season which is not a good sign as to how they will start in this game when playing on a short week. The Browns have played 29 of their last 44 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half in each of their last two games. They will be facing an underrated Jets’ defense that has held their first two opponents to just 3.38 Yards-Per-Carry. Moving forward, Cleveland has played 11 of their last 14 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 29 of their last 39 home games Under the Total when favored by 3 points or less. The Browns have also played 6 of their last 7 games on Thursday Night Football Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: While the Total is set around the 40 point range, expect points to be hard to come by from both these teams with strong defenses but limited offenses. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-17-18 |
Seahawks +5 v. Bears |
Top |
17-24 |
Loss |
-108 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (289) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (290). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-24 loss at Denver last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Chicago (0-1) also looks rebound from a narrow loss after they lost in Green Bay last Sunday night by a 27-24 score as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle should play well tonight as they are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up loss. And while they come off a scoring fest last week against the Broncos, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total while also covering the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Many bettors are down on this Seahawks team after their disappointing 2017-18 season which saw them move on from a number of veterans in the offseason. But head coach Pete Carroll has created a younger roster this year — and he has a proven track record of getting the most of a group of youthful players. Seattle is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Seahawks are also 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Chicago played great in the first-half last week as they raced out to a 17-0 lead going into halftime at Lambeau Field — but they were outscored by a dominant 24-7 margin in the second-half. The Bears held the Packers to just 69 rushing yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight gams after allowing no more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. An injured Aaron Rodgers did torch the Chicago secondary for 301 yards — and they are a rough 17-39-1 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Bears did manage only 294 yards on offense with their offense slowing down considerably after running through their set of scripted plays from rookie head coach Matt Nagy to quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Moving forward, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the month of September — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played in the second week of the season. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 8 games against fellow NFC opponents, Chicago is 2-5-1 ATS.
FINAL TAKE: Many bettors will remember how good the Bears looked in the first-half of their prime time game against Green Bay which is why the original -2.5 points they were laying have been bet up to more than 4 points in many spots. The Seahawks are a bit underrated right now — making these points very valuable. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Seattle Seahawks (289) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-18 |
Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 42 |
Top |
13-20 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (287) and the Dallas Cowboys (288). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 20-15 loss a home to Jacksonville last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 16-8 loss at Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the defense for the Giants loss as they held the Jaguars to just 305 yards of offense. The hope with this football team that new defensive coordinator James Bettcher can find the magic for this defense that triggered them being 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 17.8 PPG while also ranking tied for 3rd in the league in run defense. Injuries took away cornerback Janoris Jenkins along with linebacker B.J. Goodson while the team feels they have upgraded at linebacker with the trade for Alec Ogletree from the Rams. But the problems for this team last week as they managed to generate only 324 yards of offense. The Giants ranked 31st in the NFL last year by scoring only 15.4 PPG — and their 15 points last week included a defensive 32-yard interception returned for a touchdown. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. The Giants have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow NFC East foes. It was a similar story for the Cowboys as their defense played quite well by holding the Panthers to just 16 points at home — but they managed only 232 yards of offense with a wide receiver group that lacks a clear number one (or number two) option. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. But this Cowboys defense should continue to play well given their balance after finishing last year 8th in the NFL in run defense and 11th in pass defense. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after both a straight-up loss and a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Cowboys have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on their home field.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played four of their last five games Under the Total. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams. 25* NFL NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (287) and the Dallas Cowboys (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-16-18 |
Browns v. Saints OVER 50 |
Top |
18-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (277) and the New Orleans Saints (278). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-0-1) ensured they will not suffer another season where they lose all their games as they managed a 21-21 tie with the Steelers last Sunday. New Orleans (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 48-40 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay despite being 10-point favorites in that contest.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Browns have a promising young defense but the Steelers generated 472 yards against them even in difficult wind conditions last Sunday. Cleveland has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread win. The Browns have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total in the month of September. Cleveland goes on the road now where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when the number is set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Browns have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home — and they have play 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. New Orleans’ surrendered 529 yards to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers’ offense last week. The Saints did keep up by gaining 475 yards in that contest — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, New Orleans has played 7 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Saints stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total. And in their last 5 games in the month of September, New Orleans has played all 5 games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Both these defenses look overrated last week compared to their preseason projections. The Saints face a must-win situation pretty much given the dire prospects of starting the year 0-2 at home in Superdome — while Cleveland remains desperate to earn their first win three seasons. This conflicting dynamic should produce a higher scoring game. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (277) and the New Orleans Saints (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-13-18 |
Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 45 |
Top |
23-34 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-0) opened their season in glowing fashion by crushing Buffalo by a 47-3 score last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (1-0) also enters this divisional game with a victory as they defeated the Colts in Indianapolis by a 34-23 score as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens flexed their muscles on defense in that game as they held the Bills to just 153 yards of offense. This is an outstanding Ravens’ defense that was 6th in the NFL last year by limiting their opponents to just 18.9 PPG along with three shutouts they also almost added to in that game. Baltimore limited the Bills to just 2.78 Yards-Per-Play in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to less than 3.0 YPP. The Ravens controlled the time of possession in that game while looking to win the battle at the line of scrimmage as they held the ball for 35:14 minutes of that game. Baltimore only managed 369 yards of offense for all that possession time — including 252 yards in the air. The Under is then 34-15-2 in the Ravens’ last 51 games after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. Furthermore, Baltimore has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents. Cincinnati has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Bengals have also seen the Under go 34-16-2 in their last 52 games after scoring at least 30 points. The defense did give up 380 yards to the Colts in that game — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Most of those yards were from QB Andrew Luck who returned to NFL action by 305 yards. But the Bengals allowed only 75 rushing yards — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at home — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 4 games played on Thursday Night Football, the Bengals have played all 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: It might be tempting to take the Over in this game with both offenses scoring a combined 81 points last week. These two teams also last played in Week 17 which was a scoring fest that the Bengals won by a 31-27 score. But that was the first Over between these two teams in their last five encounters. Look for both coaches to try to out-physical the other by controlling clock and win the battle at the line of scrimmage. 25* NFL AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-10-18 |
Rams v. Raiders +6 |
Top |
33-13 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (481). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) is one of the top favorites to reach the Super Bowl this season after their 11-5 campaign last year. Oakland (0-0) looks to recapture past glory by bringing back head coach Jon Gruden after their disappointing 6-10 season last year.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: I will admit that I am skeptical of some of the moves that Gruden has made since returning to Oakland. Letting Khalil Mack go is not one of them. While the linebacker is one of the best defensive players in the league, the Raiders simply cannot afford him. It is just that simple. Perhaps Oakland can entertain the debate once they move to Las Vegas the wisdom of spending 40% of their salary cap on just two players. The Lions tried that out with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh (OK, that is three players) — and we know how that plan worked out. In the meantime, before the Raiders move to Vegas where the purse strings will be loosened, Gruden’s plan is to lean heavily on veterans who can execute his sophisticated game plans in a new league where practice times are limited during the season. I do expect the Raiders’ offense to come out with plenty of new wrinkles that Gruden has been accumulating in the nine years since he left Tampa Bay for the Monday Night Football television booth. He does have the quarterback who can execute these schemes in Derek Carr. While Oakland was probably not as good as their 12-4 record back in 2016, they are better than what their 6-10 mark last year suggests. Frankly, just the move of removing last year’s offensive coordinator Todd Browning will represent an upgrade for this team. They should play well out of the gate for Gruden as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the month of September including covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season. The Raiders are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on Monday Night Football. Gruden’s teams have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 7 point range. Los Angeles has added the aforementioned Suh along with cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib amongst a handful of splashy free agent acquisitions. I remain skeptical that the sum of these parts will be as good as advertised as this is now a roster with plenty of big personalities — and the formula of buying a Super Bowl has a bad track record in the NFL. This Rams team was exposed in the playoffs when they were upset by Atlanta by a 26-13 score despite playing that game at home. Los Angeles may start this season slow under the weight of Super Bowl expectations as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 opening games to a new season. And while the Rams were 7-1 on the road last year, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games in the opening two weeks of the season. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams roster is loaded but expecting them to cover a point spread more than a field goal against a quality opponent is simply too much to ask. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders pull the upset in Gruden’s official return to Oakland — but definitely grab the valuable points in this game for some insurance. 25* NFL Bailout Game of the Year with the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-10-18 |
Jets v. Lions -6.5 |
Top |
48-17 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the New York Jets (479). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) officially begins the Sam Darnold era tonight as they hope to improve on their 5-11 season last year. Detroit (0-0) missed the playoffs last year after their second straight 9-7 campaign.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Darnold demonstrated that he might be the most advanced of all the incoming rookie quarterbacks in the preseason — but he has still yet to encounter sophisticated defenses with defensive coordinators sticking to vanilla schemes in exhibition games. Rookie head coach Matt Patricia will surely make sure that the Lions’ defense will employ some of the same sophisticated defensive concepts that he used as the defensive coordinator for the New England Patriots. Darnold had turnover issues in college at USC — he threw 13 interceptions in his last fourteen starts. Playing in a hostile environment will also represent a new challenge for Darnold. As it is, the Jets are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Additionally, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Jets were only 1-7 straight up on the road last year with four of those losses being against teams with a losing record. New York was the fifth most penalized team in the league last year which did no favors for their defense which was 25th in the NFL by allowing 352.3 total YPG. The Jets also are likely to start this season slow considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. Detroit has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. The ten-year veteran thrives when playing at home at Ford Field where he has an outstanding 60:19 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging 7.78 Yards-Per-Attempt with his passing game over the last two seasons as compared to his more modest 47:26 ratio along with a 6.94 YPA when playing on the road. The Lions were hit hard by injuries particularly on their offensive line as they had twelve different starting lineups on their line while trying twenty-one difference combinations last season. That group begins this season healthy while significantly upgrading their rushing attack by drafting Kerryon Johnson from Auburn while signing LeGarrette Blount from the Eagles. Patricia wants to run the ball more to keep his defense off the field. He inherits a defense that was second in the NFL by forcing turnovers in 16.8% of their opponent’s possessions. Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Lions have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit did not look very good in the preseason but Patricia did not reveal much of his new plans for the team. A healthy Lions team that runs the ball more should help Stafford be even more effective — and he has developed into one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league as it is. Detroit should overwhelm a Jets team that has not done much to upgrade their roster outside of placing their future in the hands of Darnold. 25* NFL Monday Night Special Feature with the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the New York Jets (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-09-18 |
Bears v. Packers OVER 46 |
Top |
23-24 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (477) and the Green Bay Packers (478). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) begins play under their new head coach Matt Nagy after John Fox was let go after their 5-11 campaign last season. Green Bay (0-0) is happy to get Aaron Rodgers back after he missed seven games last year with a broken collarbone in what ended up being a 7-9 season.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers’ offense stalled without Rodgers last year as they averaged only 20.0 PPG last year while generating a mere 305.7 total YPG with those marks ranking 21st and 26th in the league. With Rodgers back under center, both of those marks should significantly amp up — especially at home. Green Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games at Lambeau Field with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Rodgers no longer has Jordy Nelson as a weapon but the veteran has lost a step — he was essentially replaced by a big target in tight end Jimmy Graham who caught 10 TD passes last year. It has been a number of years since Rodgers has had a prolific pass-receiving tight end in his arsenal. But perhaps the biggest upgrade this team has made on offense was the return of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin. The former Miami Dolphins head coach was the offensive coordinator for the Packers from 2007-2011 when Rodgers was enjoying some of his best statistical seasons. Remember that Rodgers has enjoyed an incredible 40-to-8 touchdown to interception ratio over his last sixteen starts — and he loves facing Vic Fangio-coached defenses against which he has an 11-1 TD-to-Interception ratio in his last five games against the Bears with Fangio as their defensive coordinator. Rodgers will battle a Bears’ defense that was a Top-Ten unit last year that has just added linebacker Kahlil Mack into the mix. With Mack just joining the team, it is unclear how many snaps he will play in this game. The Chicago defense is good — but their stats were padded by an offense that was designed to burn time off the clock to keep them off the field. The Bears averaged 29.2 seconds per play which is the second longest in the league. Chicago had no Pro Bowlers on their defense last year. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total against familiar conference opponents. Additionally, the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the month of September — and this includes them playing 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new season Over the Total. The Bears’ offense averaged only 16.5 PPG last year but I am expecting significant improvement from this unit this season. Nagy was brought in to play the role of Sean McVay who helped quarterback Jared Goff blossom in his second year. Mitchell Trubisky showed glimpses of his enormous potential last year but was often held back by the conservative play-calling of the offense. Trubisky also lacked weapons at wide receiver — and this was addressed in the offseason with Chicago signing Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton in the offseason. Those targets will help open things up for running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. Nagy and his offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich revealed very little of their plans for their new offseason with plenty of Run-Pass-Options expected — so Green Bay’s defense may be caught by a few surprises tonight. Trubisky saw only 39 snaps in the preseason. And don’t be surprised if the Bears significantly amp up their pace of play on offense given Helfrich’s background as a Chip Kelly protege at Oregon.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Over the Total. Expect a higher-scoring game between two teams that will be experiencing big improvements with their respective offenses. Expect this to be a sloppy game which will likely result in triggering more scoring opportunities. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (477) and the Green Bay Packers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-18 |
Jaguars v. Giants +3 |
Top |
20-15 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (462) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (461). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-0) returns to the field again after losing in the AFC Championship Game in which they lost in New England by a 24-20 score. New York (0-0) has undertaken a new start after crashing and burning last year with a 3-13 record.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars return 21 of 22 starters from last year — but one of those starters remains embattled quarterback Blake Bortles. The team signed him to a two-year extension after he did not commit a turnover in the playoffs. However, Bortles threw 13 interceptions in the regular season (7th most in the NFL) while only attempting 547 passes through the playoffs which was his lowest amount since his rookie season. Significant issues remain for this quarterback for which it is rumored that head coach Doug Marrone and his coaching staff limits his practice time against the Jags’ defense so as to not impair his confidence. Short-to-medium range accuracy remains an issue for the former Central Florida quarterback while his capacity to read NFL wide receiver routes is still a question mark. And while all quarterbacks struggle under pressure, Bortles’ becomes almost completely ineffective against quality pass rushes with his Passer Rating of 96.0 dropping to 55.2 — and that 40.8 drop in Passer Rating under pressure is the biggest collapse of all NFL quarterbacks. Bortles is also without one of his key weapons with wide receiver Marquise Lee out the season with a knee injury. Of course, the strength of this Jacksonville defense is their defense that was 2nd in the NFL in points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yards allowed (286.1 YPG). But the Regression Gods are likely to make a visit with this team given those outstanding numbers — especially for a pass defense that was historically excellent. A favorable strength of schedule helped prop up those numbers last year. And run defense was an issue as they allowed opposing rushers to average 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry. The formula for success for this team was for the defense to ensure that they took a lead which allowed Bortles to execute most of his passes from play-action plays. But this team is not equipped to come-from-behind. The Jags only won one game last year when trailing at halftime — and they were 2-5 straight-up when their opponents scored first. That is not a good sign when playing on the road where they were just 4-4 last year with questionable losses at Arizona, San Francisco and Tennessee. Jacksonville failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against NFC opponents. The Jaguars have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Jaguars tend to start the new season slow as they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games in the month of September — including failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to the season. New York should make significant improvements this season being just one year removed from their 11-5 campaign in 2016-17. The Giants suffered four net close losses decided by one possession. Furthermore, the team was ravaged by injuries particularly on offense with their wide receivers and their offensive line. QB Eli Manning will have a significant upgrade of talent in his huddle today with Odell Beckham, Jr. healthy and happy with his new contract along with rookie Saquon Barkley at running back along with a healthy line that has added left tackle Nate Solder from New England. The defense hopes to return to their outstanding 2016 form under new defensive coordinator James Bettcher after the unit was a dysfunctional mess as they rebelled against former head coach Bob McAdoo. Butcher brought in a former player with the Cardinals in defensive end Kareem Martin who will serve as a de-facto coach on the field. The Giants are not home underdogs very often in the Manning era — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as a home underdog.
FINAL TAKE: This is a good opening situation to invest in with Jacksonville a bit overrated after their deep playoff run last year while New York being undervalued after they hot rock bottom last year. Grab the points and don’t be surprised if the Giants pull the upset. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (462) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-18 |
Falcons +3 v. Eagles |
Top |
12-18 |
Loss |
-115 |
24 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-0) will have their Super Bowl Ring Ceremony at home at Liberty Financial Field as they open the NFL season at home after defeating New England in last year’s Super Bowl. Atlanta (0-0) will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing in this building last January 13th in a 15-10 loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs.
REASONS TO TAKE ATLANTA PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons have spent the entire offseason stewing about that loss as they had the ball inside the 10-yard line with the opportunity to win that game before failing to reach pay dirt in four plays. That final series of plays demonstrated the difficulties Atlanta had all season in the Red Zone. While the Falcons were 8th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 364.8 total YPG, they dropped to 15th in the league by scoring 22.1 PPG. Most of that blame has been placed on their first-year offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian — and I consider those criticisms very fair for a cronyism hire for Dan Quinn with both coaches in the Pete Carroll coaching tree. Sarkisian’s only previous NFL experience was a Quarterback’s Coach with the Raiders under Bill Musgrove in middle-aughts before serving as Carroll’s OC at USC before taking that head coaching job when Carroll dashed to Seattle before NCAA penalties were handed down on the Trojans’ program. Sarkisian was last seen serving as the OC for Alabama when they lost to Clemson in the 2017 National Championship Game when he took over for the departing Lane Kiffin. While I presume my feelings for Sark have not been hidden, I do think he will improve with his Red Zone play-calling — and the team adding wide receiver Calvin Ridley in the 1st Round of the draft gives him another weapon. The fact remains that the Falcons have lost to the Super Bowl Champions in the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. This is a good team on both sides of the football who are well-positioned t make another run. Their offense last year was destined to take a step back after a historical 2016-17 campaign where they averaged 33.8 PPG. The deeper metrics suggest that quarterback Matt Ryan may have actually had a better season last year — he was victimized by five tipped balls that resulted in interceptions which were the most any QB has endured since the 2010 season. The defense steadily improved last year before flexing their muscles in the playoffs by completing the Rams offensive attack in Los Angeles in their 26-13 win in the Wild Card round before liming the Eagles to just 15 points and only 334 yards of offense the next week. That playoff game is when Philly unveiled the Nick Foles’ offense that featured head coach Doug Pederson’s version of the Run-Pass-Option offense that Foles ran previously under Chip Kelly — and that offense would go on to destroy the Minnesota and New England defenses. Perhaps the most important thing that Quinn has done this offseason was address a subpar Special Teams unit. Quinn hired a new assistant Special Teams coach in Mayur Chaudhari while focused the third day of the draft on potential new special teamers — and the team added a Pro Bowl Special Teamer in free agent Justin Bethel from Arizona. Atlanta begins the season almost completely healthy with zero players on Injured Reserve (as opposed to teams like Indianapolis who have 20 players on IR). The Falcons usually start strong as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of September. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog getting 7 or fewer points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 13 opportunities to play on Thursday Night Football, the Falcons have covered the point spread 11 times. I am not down on this Philadelphia team — but I do think the prospects of them suffering a letdown after their celebratory offseason is very high. The team is missing two key pieces in this game with QB Carson Wentz still out with his torn ACL and wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey doubtful with a shoulder injury. The Eagles are confronting a challenging history where seven of the last seventeen Super Bowl winners failed to even make the playoffs the next season. Remember that this Philadelphia defense surrendered over 500 yards of passing yards to Tom Brady before lifting the Lombardi Trophy. The Eagles defense begins this season with questions with their weak-side linebacker and their nickel cornerback.
FINAL TAKE: Ring ceremonies are tough on the home teams as it is very hard to get their minds off of celebrating last year’s accomplishments while their opponents are completely focused on the task at hand. With the Falcons filled with revenge as well, they should be very motivated to find a small measure of redemption from their disappointment from last January. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-18 |
Eagles v. Patriots -5 |
Top |
41-33 |
Loss |
-110 |
254 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 4th, we will be playing the New England Patriots (102) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (101) in the Super Bowl. Everything for Philadelphia (15-3) went right after falling behind in the NFC Championship Game after they fell behind by a 7-0 score as they then rattled off 38 unanswered points to upset the Vikings by a 38-7 score. Their momentum was triggered by a 50-yard interception return for a touchdown that tied the score at 7-7 and settled down Nick Foles and the Eagles offense while also igniting the crowd. We had Minnesota in that game — and, frankly, I am largely dismissing that result as the outcome of two outlier performances. The Vikings probably played their worst game of the season as they admitted in retrospect that they were emotionally spent after their dramatic last-second win over the Saints the previous week. Philadelphia also played one of their best games of the season — and I am expecting a big letdown for this team after such a dominant performance. As it is, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. But Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as a home dog. Remember, this Eagles team squeaked by Atlanta in their previous playoff game due in large measure to the ineffective Falcons Red Zone offense this season. Despite how good Foles’ playoff numbers are (that we will hear about for two weeks), the Eagles scored only 15 points against Atlanta despite being at home. Over their last three games, Philly is scoring just 17.7 PPG while averaging a mere 336.3 total YPG. In Foles’ first four games since taking over for Carson Wentz, he was Checkdown Charlie who completed just 2 of his 15 passes of more than 20 yards in the air for a miserable 13.8 Passer Rating. Foles exploded against Minnesota by completing 4 of 6 passes of 20 or more yards in the air for 172 yards and two TD passes — but I have to credit some of that to the Vikings’ simply being shellshocked during what turned out to be a 38-0 run. Foles looked awful in his final two regular season games. I expect the true Nick Foles is somewhere in the middle of these performances — and that is not in Tom Brady’s dimension. The Philadelphia defense also deserves mention as they have flexed their muscles by allowing just 33 combined points over their last four games while never allowing more than 10 points in any of those games. But all those games were at home. In their three previous games on the road (before this recent stretch), the Eagles allowed 88 combined points at Seattle, at the Los Angeles Rams and at the New York Giants (and no doubt the Patriots will study what Eli Manning did in shredding the Philly defense for 795 passing yards in two games this season). Philadelphia allowed 23.5 PPG on the road this season with six of their eight opponents scoring at least 23 points — their seasonal stats are skewed by allowing just 9 points against that Cowboys team without both Ezekiel Elliott and left tackle Tyron Smith. Playing on turf might also be an issue for this team after playing on field turf just three times this season. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the faster field turf. Throw-in their lack of recent playoff experience playing away from home and the lack of Super Bowl experience for most of the players and coaches on the staff and this is all new territory for this team. With the back of all the members of this organization knowing that they reached the Super Bowl without QB Carson Wentz, left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks, this team has the profile of a group that may turn out to just be happy to be in the Super Bowl.
New England (15-3) is clearly focused on winning a second straight Super Bowl while adding credentials to the mark in the history books. Remember that this team began the year with talk of them going through the season undefeated. While that did not happen, they have now won five straight games with their 24-20 win over Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning at least five straight games. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in ten of their last twelve games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Eagles were able to seize momentum against the Vikings not only with that defensive touchdown but also with a +3 net turnover margin. It is highly unlikely that the Patriots will be as giving as Minnesota was. New England has only turned the ball over three times in their last five games — and never more than one time during those five games. In fact, the Patriots only had 13 turnovers all season with just four of those games seeing them turn the ball over more than once and never more than twice in a game. New England has turned the ball over twice in only two games over their last twelve contests. This is a team that emphasizes protecting the football. They also have a significantly better Special Teams than the Eagles (at least according to Football Outsiders than ranks the Patriots as 2nd in the NFL while rating the Philly Special Teams unit 21st in the league). Additionally, let me state something that will appear obvious at first glance but perhaps a subtler reason to like New England in this game upon deeper reflection: the key to this game for the Eagles is to prevent the Patriots from getting off to a fast start. New England has played ten playoffs games over the last four postseasons where they are 9-1 straight-up with two Super Bowl trophies and a third pending. The Patriots have gone into halftime with a lead in five of those games — and they have gone on to win all five of those games by an average winning margin of +20.6 PPG with the closest final score being their 27-20 win over Kansas City in the Divisional round in January 2016 where they went on to lose at Denver. In those remaining five games where they either trailed or were tied at halftime, they still on to win four of those games. Three of those wins were by 4 points with last year’s Super Bowl being that 34-26 overtime win over the Falcons. So perhaps Eagles bettors will take comfort in their potential halftime lead given those numbers? Yeah, maybe — as if those three 4-point wins represents overwhelming evidence versus a point spread that looks destined to be in the -4.5 to -5.5 point range (as of this writing). But I took note of the fact that the Patriots have not gone to halftime without a lead in two straight playoff games since this latest Super Bowl run started in the 2014-15 season. After trailing Jacksonville last week at the half by a 14-10 score and the memory of their near-disastrous 21-3 halftime deficit to the Falcons in last year’s Super Bowl, I think that Bill Belichick will place a premium on getting off to a good start. And with their vast playoff experience and the fact that almost everything went right for the Eagles in the first-half last week when they went to the lockers with a 24-7 lead, why would one not expect New England to once again avoid trailing (or being tied) at halftime in two straight playoff games? Consistency defines Belichick and Tom Brady. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. And in their last 36 games as the favorite, the Patriots have then covered the point spread in 27 of these games. Perhaps the Eagles pull off their third straight upset victory? Perhaps the Patriots will win yet another Super Bowl by 4 points or less like they have done in four of their five Super Bowl Championships in the Belichick-Brady era? Perhaps … but it seems like almost everything has to go right for the Eagles to be in that position. New England has shown that even if everything does not go right for them, they still enter into coin-flip situations regarding if they will cover the point spread. And if the breaks go mostly their way, the Patriots cover the point spread easily. That is a great betting scenario when our worst case scenario still puts us in solid shape. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (102) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (101) in the Super Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-18 |
Eagles v. Patriots OVER 48 |
Top |
41-33 |
Win
|
100 |
253 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 4th, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the New England Patriots (102). New England (15-3) reached the Super Bowl with their 24-20 win over Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game. The Patriots offense was slowed down a bit from both Rob Gronkowski’s concussion as well as a questionable fumble call on running back Deion Lewis for what was looking like a touchdown drive midway through the second-half. That game finished below the 46-point total for that game — but New England has still played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the playoffs. The Patriots have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as the number one seed in the playoffs. This offense has been remarkably consistent this season. For the year, they are scoring 28.7 PPG while averaging 393.3 total YPG. In their eight games away from this season, New England is scoring 27.9 PPG while averaging 398.9 total YPG. In their last three contests, the Pats are scoring 28.3 PPG while averaging 370.7 total YPG. And in their twelve games played on field turf this year, New England is scoring 28.4 PPG while generating 392.2 total YPG. In fact, the Patriots have played a decisive 67 of their last 100 games Over the Total when playing on field turf which includes not only their home games but also those away games on turf which is the surface for this Super Bowl in Minnesota. Gronkowski should be able to play in this game with two weeks to get through the concussion protocol (and how high is his normal baseline test that he has to reach anyways?). At full strength, this New England offense is simply loaded with diverse weapons this season. Tom Brady has much more options at his disposal than the one last year that scored 34 points in overtime in their win over the Falcons.
Philadelphia (15-3) generated 456 yards of offense against an outstanding Vikings defense last week in their 38-7 win over Minnesota to win the NFC Championship Game. Doug Pederson and the offensive coaching staff for the Eagles have done a masterful job in using the bye week in the first-round of the playoffs to install an offense tailored to the skill set of QB Nick Foles. He completed 26 of 33 passes last week against the Vikings for 352 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. In the playoffs, Foles has completed 49 of his 63 passes for 602 yards. Philadelphia has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after passing for at least 300 yards in their last contest. On the defensive side of the football, the Under deserves consideration since the Eagles have allowed just 33 combined points over their last four games while never allowing more than 10 points in any of those games. But all those games were at home. In their three previous games on the road (before this recent stretch), the Eagles allowed 88 combined points at Seattle, at the Los Angeles Rams and at the New York Giants (and no doubt the Patriots will study what Eli Manning did in shredding the Philly defense for 795 passing yards in two games this season). Philadelphia allowed 23.5 PPG on the road this season with six of their eight opponents scoring at least 23 points — their seasonal stats are skewed by allowing just 9 points against that Cowboys team without both Ezekiel Elliott and left tackle Tyron Smith. As it is, the Eagles have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in three straight games. Playing on turf is also an issue since Philly played most of their games on grass which tends to slow down speedy offensive players. The Eagles have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Furthermore, their win over the Vikings finished above the 39 point total for that game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Lastly, the pressure of the Super Bowl and needing to defeat Brady and his uncanny ability to generate 4th quarter comebacks will likely compel Doug Pederson to be aggressive with his play-calling and decisions — and that should create more scoring opportunities for both teams (one way or another). 25* NFL Super Bowl *A-List* O/U Special with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the New England Patriots (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. SUPER BOWL PROPOSITIONS BETTING CARD. Please note that this Prop Bets Report is only a bonus; the Guarantee policy applies only to the Super Bowl Over part of this Report. Thanks, Frank. Our Best Bet Wager is on the Tom Brady completing more passes than Nick Foles with the line at -3 passes — priced at -170 at Bovada. To be clear, Brady has to complete four more passes than Foles to win this bet (with Brady completing three more passes than Foles pushing the bet). Philadelphia is more anxious to run the football to control the line of scrimmage while burning time off the clock to keep the Patriots offense off the field. New England will pass a bit more for two reasons in addition to that. First, they are going to run more plays on offense because it is highly likely they will operate their no-huddle offense to attempt to thwart the Eagles ability to rotate players on the defensive line. Second, Jim Schwartz’s defense will likely protect the deeper ball which will leave a soft underbelly for 5 to 7 yard passing plays — and Brady has shown a proclivity to be very happy to nickel-and-dime his way down the field with these short passes. I much prefer a Brady-Completions Bet to a Brady-Passing Yards Bet for this reason. Additionally, if the Eagles are winning this game in the second half, they will move to running the ball even more. However, even if the Patriots are winning in the second half, the trust in Brady is so high that they will continue to pass the ball with those short but safe passes.
Our Top Underlay Wager is with the Patriots -0.5 points in the 4th quarter which Bovada prices at -110. We all know how good Tom Brady has been in the 4th quarter in Super Bowls with the memory of New England’s big 4th quarter comeback against Atlanta last year (as well as against Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game two weeks ago). In Brady’s last two Super Bowls, he has completed 29 of 36 passes in the 4th quarter for 320 yards with two TDs, no interceptions and a Quarterback Rating of 129. If the Patriots are trailing again, Brady should make the game close (at the very least). But if New England is winning, I don’t love Nick Foles’ ability to rally his team if he is forced to throw the football. Foles is at his best when operating the Run-Pass Option — and those plays require the ability to take what the defense gives you when the receiver is covered. Foles will feel compelled to throw the football if the Eagles need quick scoring. Foles’ productivity also significantly declines if and when he is under pressure. The Patriots will certainly feel free to apply pressure with blitzes and other schemes if they know Foles is throwing the football.
Our Long Shot Wager is on Zack Ertz to have the most receiving yards in this game which Bovada places at +400. The value is in choosing an Eagles passing target since the Patriots have so many weapons in their passing game with Brady often going to his running backs (in those short safety valve passes which makes our Top Underlay Bet so intriguing). So I consider all the Patriot options for this bet Overlays (with Rob Gronkowski the favorite at +300 and Brandin Cooks tied for second favorite at +400). Ertz is not only one of the best tight ends in the NFL by also Philadelphia’s most reliable pass catcher. Furthermore, the Patriots’ linebackers to struggle in pass coverage — and this is a prime area for the Eagles to exploit. If the Eagles enjoy a second-half lead, Ertz will likely have played a big part. If they are trailing, Ertz will be a key component in their passing game. In the end, have fun with these bets but please keep in mind I still consider the best (and most reliable) two betting options for the Super Bowl to be our Side and Totals plays. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-18 |
Vikings -3 v. Eagles |
Top |
7-38 |
Loss |
-115 |
108 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (313) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Philadelphia (14-3) has won four of their last five games with their 15-10 upset win at home against the Falcons last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Eagles got out their Dog Masks after the game to bask in their pulling the upset against Atlanta — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after an upset win at home as an underdog. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up victory. The Eagles survived that game despite a -2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a game where they committed at least two more turnovers than their opponent. QB Nick Foles is the reason why this team is an underdog yet again in this game — but it is for good reason. He was solid against the Falcons after completing 23 of 30 passes for 246 yards with no interceptions. But he did not throw a touchdown pass - -and he rushed for -2 yards. Unfortunately for the Eagles, that was probably the most they can expect to get out of their backup QB. Remember that Foles struggled in his previous two starts against Dallas and Oakland — he completed just 23 of 49 passes for 202 yards with one TD pass and two interceptions in those two games combined. The Eagles did use the bye week to redesign their offense by having Foles run the read-option plays that he thrived executing in his one season running the Chip Kelly offense with the Eagles a few years ago. Who knows if the Falcons spent much time preparing for that blast from the past last week in practice — but it is a guarantee that the Mike Zimmer will make sure his team invests a significant amount of time preparing for read-options that other teams like the Cowboys and Panthers also deploy. So the element of surprise for Philadelphia running this offense is gone. Foles sees his effectiveness decline significantly when facing pressure — and he does not do a great job making quick decisions regarding his read progressions with wide receivers. Those are bad qualities to have when facing this ferocious Vikings’ defense. The Eagles are scoring just 11.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging only 256.3 total YPG. The rushing game has not been able to step up to take pressure off Foles. Philadelphia has not rushed for more than 96 yards in three straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs.
Minnesota (14-3) survived their game with New Orleans last week with their 29-24 win Saints salvaged by the 61-yard touchdown pass to Stefan Diggs as time expired. I think that miraculous victory will galvanize this team and give them confidence moving forward — and it certainly cements any lingering doubts about the ability of Case Keenum to lead this team to the promise land. As it is, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And while Minnesota failed to cover the 5.5-point spread as the favorite, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Keenum completed 25 of 40 passes for 318 yards and a touchdown pass against the Saints — and the Vikings have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Minnesota defense did give up 358 yards to the Drew Brees-led New Orleans offense — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The encouraging aspect of the Vikings defense for this game is their run defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL by limiting team to just 83.6 rushing YPG. They have allowed only 74 rushing YPG over their last three games after giving up just 30 and 80 rushing yards in each of their last two games. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. This stout Vikings defense is particularly good on 3rd Down where they were tops in the NFL in limiting opposing offenses in converting 3rd Down plays. In fact, Minnesota only allowed opposing offenses to convert 51 3rd Downs during the regular season. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games as the favorite. 25* NFC Playoff Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (313) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-18 |
Jaguars v. Patriots OVER 46.5 |
Top |
20-24 |
Loss |
-101 |
105 h 37 m |
Show
|
BRADY WRIST-GATE UPDATE (Friday): The line has moved down to New England to the 45 point total range with the news that Tom Brady injured his throwing wrist in practice. I released my AFC plays before this took place (taking the Over at 46.5). The Patriots’ Beat Writer says that the “chatter” is that Brady injured the area between his thumb forefinger. Brady can still throw but his snaps under center may be limited. Pain is the biggest issue (and he will likely be shot up before kickoff). That all said, in general, I don’t let rumors of injuries sway my handicapping on a game — so my recommendation is to just ride things out (like I am) if you you have already invested in this play. If you have yet to bet, I would jump all over any 45s you can find and be happy with -45.5. I am not letting these rumors diffuse from the strong fundamental play on the Over. For those needing a pick me up, I did hear that Brady has, in fact, thrown some passes in practice. It makes sense for the Pats to exhibit extreme caution with their veteran. Brady still benefited from just walking through the Thursday/Friday practices where specific offensive game plans and Red Zone plays were worked on — and many former NFL QBs argued that just walking through those plays to intellectualize them is all Brady really needs. Thanks, Frank. At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) and the New England Patriots (312). Jacksonville (12-6) reached the AFC Championship Game with their 45-42 upset win at Pittsburgh last Sunday as a 7-point underdog. The Jaguars have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Jags scored a defensive touchdown in that game while enjoying a +2 net turnover margin — and they then played 7 straight games Over the Total after a game where they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin. Jacksonville generated 378 yards of offense in that game — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Jags have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. This Jacksonville offense is underrated — they ranked 5th in the NFL by scoring 26.1 PPG while ranking 6th by averaging 365.9 total YPG. After last week’s explosion, the Jags are averaging 28.1 PPG when playing on the road. The irony of this team is they are also a bit overrated when it comes to the strength of their defense. They allowed Ben Roethlisberger to pass for 462 yards en route to their 545 total yards of offense for the Steelers — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Jaguars finished 2nd in the NFL in both points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yardage (286.1 total YPG) — but check out their strength of schedule. Jacksonville was able to pad their numbers with NFL’s least productive division in terms of offense in the AFC South against Tennessee, Indianapolis and Houston (they were fortunate to avoid QB DeShaun Watson both times). Throw in additional games against Cleveland, Baltimore in Week Three (that London game when their offense was ravaged with injuries and still finding itself), Cincinnati in Week Seven (when their offensive line was imploding) and then Buffalo in the Wild Card game. Then throw in their first game with the Steelers where they won by a 30-9 score with the benefit of two defensive touchdowns and five interceptions — and they allowed 65 combined points for a measly 6.5 PPG scoring average in those top ten defensive performances. There are six games — representing 33% of their results this year that should raise eyebrows for the wrong reasons: last week against the Steelers where they allowed 42 points and 545 yards of offense; allowing 44 points and 364 yards of offense against a Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers offense on December 24th; allowing 27 points and 344 yards of offense led by Blaine Gabbert; allowing 27 points in a loss to the LA Rams on October 15th; allowing 23 points and a whopping 471 yards in a loss to the Jets on October 1st; allowing 37 points and 390 yards of offense to Titans back on September 17th. Of their eighteen games including their two in the playoffs, Jacksonville has played six playoff teams (with the Bills and Steelers’ second-meeting being in the actual playoffs). They are 3-3 overall in those games — but they are allowing 22.2 PPG and 341.7 total YPG in those six contests. Of course, the Jaguars had the benefit of facing the likely two worst teams to make the playoffs in Tennessee (twice) and Buffalo in the Wildcard round. Take away those three games to just assess how this Jaguars defense performed against Pittsburgh (twice) and the LA Rams and the results are simply unimpressive: 26.0 PPG and 388.3 total YPG allowed. Where this Jags’ defense struggles when compares to those Super Bowl winning Ravens and Giants teams that defeated the Brady/Belichick combo is in run defense. Jacksonville ranked 21st in the NFL during the regular season by allowing 116.2 rushing YPG. This is where the Patriots will attack.
New England (14-3) has won four straight games with their 35-14 win over Tennessee last Sunday. The Patriots have won their last three games by at least three touchdowns — and they have then played 17 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after winning at least two games in a row by at least two touchdowns. New England has also played a decisive 48 of their last 69 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Patriots have also played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots stay at home for this game where they are scoring 30.0 PPG while generating 394.8 total YPG. Over their last three games, they are scoring 32.7 PPG. New England has played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 7 Playoff games at home, the Patriots have played all 7 games Over the Total. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) and the New England Patriots (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-18 |
Titans v. Patriots OVER 47 |
Top |
14-35 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the New England Patriots (304). New England (13-3) has been a favorite laying at least 13 points three times in the AFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. The results were as follows: a 34-16 win over Houston last year with the Total at 44; a 45-10 win over Denver in 2012 with the Total set at 50; a 31-20 win over Jacksonville with the Total set at 51. While the Total was 2-0-1 for those three games, all three games saw at least 50 combined points scored with the Patriots averaging 36.7 PPG over that stretch. If New England approaches that number in this game, then this game should go safely Over the Total. The Patriots enter this game with momentum as they followed up their 37-16 win over Buffalo in Week 16 with a 26-6 victory over the Jets to close out their regular season. New England has then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning at least two straight games by double-digits. The Patriots are averaging 29.4 PPG at home this season — and they have not only played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total at home but they have also played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, New England has played 6 straight playoff games at home Over the Total. And in their last 8 games in the AFC Divisional Playoffs, the Over is 7-0-1.
Tennessee (10-7) got their offense going in the second-half last week by scoring 19 points to stun Kansas City with their 22-21 upset victory as an 8.5-point underdog. The Titans have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to score more than a field goal in the first-half of their last game. Tennessee has also played 16 of their last 22 games after a victory by 3 points or less in their last game. The Titans have played two straight games Under the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing two straight games that finished below the number. Tennessee’s defense ranks 13th in the NFL by allowing 328.0 total YPG — but Pro Football Focus ranks their strength of schedule of opposing offenses to be last in the league. The Titans pass defense allowed 239.2 passing YPG this season which was 25th in the NFL. Considering that the Tennessee run defense ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 88.8 rushing YPG, it is the passing game from which the Patriots are likely to exploit — and that helps our Over play with more stoppages of the clock likely coming from incomplete passes. The Titans have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 5 trips to Foxboro to play the Patriots, the game finished Over the Total 4 times. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the New England Patriots (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-18 |
Falcons v. Eagles OVER 41 |
Top |
10-15 |
Loss |
-105 |
38 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (301) and the Philadelphia Eagles (302). Atlanta (11-6) has now played six straight games Under the Total given the steadily improved play of their defense combining with too many bettors not catching up to the reality that this Falcons offense is not as powerful this year as the one last year that led the NFL by scoring 33.8 PPG. This Total opened in the 43.5 range and has been bet down to 41 — and that is simply too low for how this game will likely play out. For starters, both these teams have amped up the number of offensive plays they are generating per game. Atlanta leads all teams left in the Playoffs by averaging 68.0 offensive plays per game over their last four contests — and that is well above their 62.5 offensive plays per game average for the regular season which was just 25th in the league. They now face an Eagles team that opponents passed the ball against in 61.4% of their offensive plays which was 3rd most this season. It stands to reason that the Falcons will emphasize the pass in this game considering that this Philadelphia team led the NFL by allowing a 79.2 rushing YPG. Atlanta behind Matt Ryan has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the Playoffs. The Over is also 11-4-2 in the Falcons’ last 17 games in the month of January. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Falcons come off their 26-13 upset win in Los Angeles as a 6.5-point underdog against the Rams last week, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after upset win as a road underdog.
Philadelphia (13-3) ran the 3rd most plays this season averaging 67.1 offensive plays per game this season — and that number dropped only slightly to 66.1 offensive plays per game over their last four contests which encompasses the time where Nick Foles became the starting quarterback for the injured Carson Wentz. The Eagles hale the field again after losing their last game of the regular season by a 6-0 score at home to the Cowboys as a 4-point underdog. Philadelphia has then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss at home. The Eagles have also played a decisive 47 of their last 69 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and this includes playing fifteen of their last twenty games Over the Total after a defeat. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. And they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Eagles ran the ball only 18 times in that game for 70 yards with their number one seed in the NFC already secured. The Eagles will surely attempt to get their ground game going support Foles under center — and they have seen he over go 40-15-1 in their last 56 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (301) and the Philadelphia Eagles (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-07-18 |
Panthers v. Saints UNDER 48 |
Top |
26-31 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the New Orleans Saints (108). Carolina (11-5) will be facing this Saints’ offense for the third time this season — and that should give an advantage to their defense given this familiarity. The Panthers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals — and this includes playing four of their last five games Under the Total against divisional rivals. Carolina looks to bounce-back from their 22-10 loss in Atlanta last week with that final score falling far below that 44.5 point total. The Panthers offense managed to generate just 248 yards of offense in that game. Carolina also allowed 371 yards in that contest — and the Under is then 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Panthers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in a domed stadium. They only generate 308.2 YPG when playing on the road this season. But this stout Carolina defense only allows the home team to score 19.6 PPG while limiting them to just 303.2 total YPG.
New Orleans (11-5) looks to bounce-back from their 31-24 upset loss in Tampa Bay despite being a 6-point favorite in that game. The Saints have then played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss as a road favorite. New Orleans has also played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Saints defense allowed the Bucs to generate 455 yards of offense in that loss. But now New Orleans returns home where they held the Panthers to just 279 yards of offense back on December 3rd in their 31-21 victory. That does not seem to be a fluke when considering that the Saints only allowed 288 total yards in the first meeting between these two teams back on September 24th in their 34-13 victory. Those numbers average out to just 17 PPG along with 283.5 total YPG for Carolina in their two games against New Orleans this season — so the Saints defense looks poised to have a much better day. Additionally, while New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then played 23 of their last 38 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the New Orleans Saints (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-07-18 |
Bills v. Jaguars -8.5 |
Top |
3-10 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (106) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (105). Jacksonville (10-6) had nothing at stake last week but still played their starters in what ended up being a 15-10 loss in Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog. That setback should eliminate any chance of this team being overconfident in this game despite being a favorite but more than a touchdown. As it is, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. And while the offense managed only 232 yards of offense, Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. The Jaguars managed only 83 rushing yards in that game with Leonard Fournette handily a relatively light load by rushing the ball only 19 times for 69 yards. The good news for Jacksonville is that Fournette should be fresh for this game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not rushing for more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Now the Jags return home where they outscore their opponents by +7.5 net PPG. The Jacksonville defense gets most of the attention — and they have been outstanding at home by holding their opponents to just 18.4 PPG along with only 283.7 total YPG. But the Jaguars offense has been strong at home where they are scoring 25.9 PPG while averaging 402.7 total YPG. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.
Buffalo (9-7) is a surprise entry into the postseason as they needed a late and improbable Cincinnati comeback victory over Baltimore to make into the playoffs after they defeated the Dolphins in Miami by a 22-16 score as a 2.5-point favorite. But their best offensive player LeSean McCoy suffered an ankle injury in that game which makes him a game time decision for this contest. Even if he plays, McCoy is not likely to be close to 100% — and that is very tough blow for this offense of which he accounts for 33% of its production. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They were outscored this season by -3.5 net PPG this season while also being outgained by -52.6 net YPG. They were just 3-5 on the road where those disparities were even worse. Buffalo was outscored by -7.0 PPG on the road this year while being outgained by -64.1 net YPG. Lastly, this will be the Bills third straight game away from home which may contribute to their fatigue. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year on the Jacksonville Jaguars (106) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-18 |
Falcons +6 v. Rams |
Top |
26-13 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (104). Atlanta (10-6) enters this Wildcard Playoff game playing as good of football as they have played all season after their 22-10 win at home over Carolina that clinched their spot in the playoffs. The Falcons have won three of their last four games to earn the opportunity to defend their NFC Championship. Playoff experience is a big advantage this team has when facing the Rams. This Atlanta team is underrated on the defensive side of the football. They held their opponents to just 19.7 PPG while limiting them to only 318.4 total YPG. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta did generate 371 yards against the Panthers defense — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 19 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Falcons have covered the point spread 13 times.
Los Angeles (11-5) rested their starters last week in their 34-13 loss to San Francisco. I am comfortable ignoring the results of that game. However, that was the Rams’ fourth loss at home this season where they are struggling to create a fervent local group of supporters. This has to be one of the weakest home field advantages that a playoff team has ever had when considering this franchise is relatively new again in Los Angeles. The Rams are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games at home — and this includes have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Looking deeper at the numbers, while the Rams outscored their opponents by +9.3 net PPG, they only outgained these opponents by +21.6 net YPG. The Los Angeles’ run defense ranks only 28th in the NFL by allowing 122.3 rushing YPG — and they allowing opposing rushers to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. While the Falcons will be without guard Andy Levier, they will have both their running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman healthy for this game after both backs have been dealing with injuries in the closing weeks of the season. Additionally, I think there is a significant edge for the Falcons with their head coach Dan Quinn and their quarterback Matt Ryan as compared to the Rams’ Sean McVay and QB Jared Goff. While McVay is being hailed as an offensive guru, he has never coached a playoff game while coming from an organization in Washington that is not a perennial playoff team. For my tastes, his head is buried in his iPad too often and I worry this will result in game management issues. When it comes to Goff, I am not convinced he has progressed beyond being a product of the McVay system. In clutch situations, Goff has not delivered this season — and I have been watching closely with their home losses to Philadelphia and Seattle being two examples of this. Furthermore, while this Rams team has an outstanding Special Teams, they will really miss one of the best place kickers in the league with Greg Zuerlein going on Injured Reserve to a few weeks ago. All these intangibles provide context for a football team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January — and this franchise has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. The Rams may win this game — but I expect a very close contest with this Falcons team that will be a tough “out” with their experience of playing in the Super Bowl last season. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Atlanta Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-18 |
Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
22-21 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Kansas City (10-6) has won four straight games with their 27-24 win at Denver as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. The Chiefs have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now this team returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 16.9 PPG. This Kansas City team scores 24.1 PPG on their home field — and that is 1.8 PPG lower than their 25.9 PPG seasonal average. They also only generate 343.1 total YPG which is over 30 YPG lower than their 375.4 total YPG mark. The Chiefs have played a decisive 44 of their last 63 games Under the Total on their home field. They also have played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 5 playoff games at home, Kansas City has played 4 of these games Under the Total.
Tennessee (9-7) clinched a spot in the AFC Playoffs last Sunday with their 15-10 victory over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. The Titans eked out that game despite generating only 232 yards of offense. A +3 net turnover margin helped the Titans overcome their limited offensive effort in that game. Tennessee scores only 20.9 PPG while averaging just 314.0 total YPG — and those numbers drop to scoring just 17.5 PPG while averaging a mere 270.7 total YPG when on the road. The Titans defense did do a fine job of stopping the Jaguars offense last week as they managed only 229 yards of offense. In fact, the lone Jacksonville touchdown came from a fumble recovery returned for a 67-yards touchdown. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Titans formula for success in this game will be running the football to burn time off the clock which keeps the Chiefs’ offense off the field — and that is a great formula for the Under. Lastly, in their last 11 games played in the month of January, Tennessee has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-17 |
49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
34-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (331) and the Los Angeles Rams (332). Los Angeles (11-4) will be resting a few key players — including quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley — in this game with their slot in the NFC Playoffs as either the third or fourth seed secured. That means that the QB for this game will be Sean Mannion while the bell cow running back will be Malcolm Brown. While those names are not encouraging, the Rams defense should still be in good shape under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. In fact, Phillips will want to see many adjustments made from the 41-39 game that the Rams won in the first meeting between these two teams back on September 21st. Los Angeles enters this game coming off their 27-23 win at Tennessee last week as a 5.5-point favorite. The Rams have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning a game on the road where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Los Angeles has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Rams return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Los Angeles has also played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the Rams have played 6 of these games Under the Total.
San Francisco (5-10) has won four straight games with their 44-33 upset win over Jacksonville as a 4-point underdog. The Jimmy Garoppolo era is off to a fine start with the QB still undefeated as a starter after tearing up a very good Jaguars defense by completing 21 of 30 passes for 242 yards. While some bettors may expect another big day from the 49ers’ offense, I look for the San Fran defense to play much better this week as they look to build for next season. The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. And in their last 5 games against fellow NFC West rivals, the 49ers have played 4 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (331) and the Los Angeles Rams (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-17 |
Texans v. Colts UNDER 42 |
Top |
13-22 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (315) and the Indianapolis Colts (316). Houston (4-11) has lost five straight games after their 34-6 loss to Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. The Texans managed only 227 yards of offense behind quarterbacks T.J. Yates and Taylor Heinicke — and the team will be without their All-World wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. As it is, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Texans have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. And in their last 10 games after failing to score at least 15 points, the Texans have played 8 of these games Under the Total. The team had to resign QB Josh Johnson off the streets this week with both their quarterbacks going through the concussion protocol this week. Yates has been cleared to start — but he completed just 19 of 47 passes for 211 yards and a QB Rating of 50.9 in his Houston has not scored a point in the first-half in their last two games — and they have then played 21 of their last 28 road games Under the Total after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first-half in two straight games.
Indianapolis (3-12) has lost six straight games with their 23-16 loss in Baltimore last week in a game where they managed only 296 yards of offense. The Colts have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Indianapolis has also played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total in the month of December. Now Indy returns home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home against teams with a losing record on the road. With rumors that the franchise will not be retaining head coach Chuck Pagano, the team may mail in their effort this afternoon. As it is, the Colts have played 4 straight games Under the Total against AFC South rivals. Lastly, these two teams have played 8 straight games Under the Total when facing off in Indianapolis. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (315) and the Indianapolis Colts (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-17 |
Raiders v. Eagles UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
10-19 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (131) and the Philadelphia Eagles (132). Philadelphia (12-2) enters this game coming off a 34-29 win in New York against the Giants on the heels of a 43-35 win in Los Angeles against the Rams. Those two games went Over the Total by 22 and 31 points respectively which may make it tempting for some bettors to expect another Over tonight. There are a host of empirical situational angles that help inform my decisions that do not end up being documented in my Reports but I wanted to highlight this one that identifies the contrarian play regarding the Under with the Eagles. After the first month of the season in games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, when one team has played their last two games Over the Total by at least two touchdowns, these games finished Under the Total in 34 of the last 44 situations (77%) where these conditions applied. The Eagles should see a much better effort from their defense after giving up 64 combined points over their last two games. Philly has played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored — and they have also played 15 of their last 18 home games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Eagles have played 37 of their last 54 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored in two straight contests. Philadelphia has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after two straight wins on the road. Returning home after playing a rigorous three straight games on the road should help this defense. On their home field, the Eagles are allowing only 15.2 PPG along with just 278.3 total YPG — and they have not given up more than 24 points at home all season. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 11 of their last 18 home games Under the Total as the favorite which includes playing their last two games Under the Total when favored in the 7.5 to 14 point range.
Oakland (6-8) enters this game coming off their 20-17 loss to Dallas back on December 17th. The Raiders have then played a decisive 39 of their last 57 road games Under the Total after a loss at home. This team struggles to score when away from home. Oakland is averaging just 17.0 PPG while generating a mere 292.5 total YPG when on the road. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when on the road. And things are likely to get even tougher for Derek Carr and this offense with their Pro Bowl left tackle Donald Penn going on Injured Reserve with a foot injury. Penn will be missing his first game since the 2007 season after being a rock on the offensive line for this team. On the plus side, the Raiders are quietly playing much better on defensive side of the football. They are allowing only 334.3 total YPG over their last three contests. Lastly, Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when on the road in the last four weeks of the regular season. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (131) and the Philadelphia Eagles (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-24-17 |
Seahawks +4 v. Cowboys |
Top |
21-12 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (127) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (128). Seattle (8-6) might have experienced their most humiliating loss in the Pete Carroll era last week in their 42-7 loss to the Rams. The season began with locker room angst between the defensive and offensive units and while those issues appeared to have been put aside during the season, injuries have decimated their roster. Now that they are out of the playoff hunt, this Seahawks team is playing for pride. But I do expect that to be enough motivation for this team as they look to make amends to each other for last week’s terrible effort. Seattle is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. And while they have played two straight games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after playing two straight games Over the Total. The team is getting back a healthier Bobby Wagner on defense who did practice this week after trying to take the field last Sunday. His presence on defense will be a big help. The Seahawks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. And in their last 29 games in the month of December, Seattle is 20-8-1 ATS.
Dallas (8-6) has won three games in a row with their 21-17 win in Oakland against the Raiders as a 3-point favorite. The Cowboys now get Ezekiel Elliott back after he completed his six-game suspension — and it looks like Dallas plans on giving him a ton of touches this afternoon. But the straw that stirs the drink is their left tackle Tyron Smith who is listed as questionable with the knee injury that has been slowing him down for the second-half of the regular season. Even if Elliott has been keeping in shape by running the beaches of the tropical locale from which he spent most of his suspension time, he might not have the endurance yet to be at 100% as he normally would be at midseason. As it is, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. The Cowboys have not enjoyed much of a home field advantage either in AT&T Stadium where they are just 3-4 this season while being outgained by -18.0 net YPG and being outscored by -1.1 PPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. 25* NFC Underdog of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (127) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-24-17 |
Falcons v. Saints -5 |
Top |
13-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (116) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (115). New Orleans (10-4) will be looking to avenge a 20-17 loss in Atlanta back on December 7th in this game. The Saints rebounded from that loss last Sunday with their 31-19 win over the Jets as a big 17.5-point favorite. New Orleans have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Saints generated 412 yards of offense in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now New Orleans gets the Falcons back at home in the Superdome where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. In his last four games at home against Atlanta, Drew Brees has thrown for 1358 passing yards along with seven TD passes — so don’t be surprised if the veteran QB has a big day this afternoon. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC South opponents.
Atlanta (9-5) has won five of their last six games with their 24-21 win in Tampa Bay. The Falcons secondary showed vulnerabilities in that game by allowing the Buccaneers to pass for 289 yards in that contest — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Atlanta also limited Tampa Bay to only 84 rushing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing no more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the biggest difference between this year’s Falcons and the one that made the run to the Super Bowl might very well be dropped passes. Led by Julio Jones’ seven drops, Atlanta leads the NFL in dropped passes. Last year, the Falcons led the NFL with only sixteen dropped passed combined amongst their wide receivers, tight ends and running backs. Perhaps the Regression Gods return to this team was inevitable when considering that they led the NFL the prior year with 32 drops. Those drops are most likely cost the team first downs. Lastly, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. 25* NFC South Game of the Year is on the New Orleans Saints (116) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (115). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-17 |
Vikings v. Packers +9 |
Top |
16-0 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 9 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (104) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). Green Bay (7-7) were eliminated from the playoffs last week after their 34-21 loss in Carolina. Now with Aaron Rodgers placed on Injured Reserve with this being a lost season, it would be easy to dismiss the Packers in this contest. But this proud Green Bay franchise has the opportunity to play spoiler against their rivals in the Vikings while avenging a 23-10 loss in Minnesota on October 15th. And this will be the final home game at Lambeau Field this year. The Packers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in the month of December. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge a loss to their opponents. And while the Packers have played their last two games on the road, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 62 games after playing their last two on the road. QB Brent Hundley has played significantly better before giving way to Rodgers return from Injured Reserve last week. Green Bay was 2-1 over Hundley’s last three starts with two of those games being on the road. The lone loss was a narrow 31-28 loss in Pittsburgh over the Steelers. In his last three starts, Hundley completed 65 of 94 passes for an impressive 69.1% completion percentage while tossing 6 touchdown passes to just one interception. He passed for 594 yards in those three games with a solid and improving 6.32 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average. Huntley also added 103 rushing yards over those last three games on 15 carries. He has helped the Packers play their last four games Over the Total — and they have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after playing at least three straight games Over the Total. Green Bay allowed 387 yards last week in Carolina — and they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 57 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest.
Minnesota (11-3) has won nine of their last ten games with their 34-7 win over Cincinnati last week. While this team is playing very well with Case Keenum ranked as the top statistical passer in the NFL since Week 10, asking them to cover the point spread of more than a touchdown on the road is simply too much to ask. The Vikings defense has been a bit more penetrable when on the road where they are allowing 21.7 PPG along with 312.6 total YPG as compared to their 17.3 PPG and 283.9 total YPG for the season. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 71 games on the road as the favorite. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 10 games when playing on grass. Lastly, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 trips to Green Bay to play the Packers at Lambeau Field. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (104) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-18-17 |
Falcons v. Bucs +7 |
Top |
24-21 |
Win
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100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (332) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (331). Atlanta (8-5) enters this game after their triumphant 20-17 win over New Orleans two Thursdays ago. If you think this game looks eerily similar to last Monday night’s New England at Miami game, then you are not alone. The Falcons easily took care of the Buccaneers in the first meeting between these two teams back on November 26th in a 34-20 score in Atlanta. And with the rematch with the Saints in the Big Easy on deck this weekend, this Falcons team may be caught looking ahead. As it is, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after a home win against a divisional rival. And while Atlanta has won four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning at least three of their last four games. The Falcons held New Orleans to just 50 rushing yards last night — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Atlanta did suffer a -2 net turnover margin to the Saints in that victory — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after having a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Moving forward, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 32 games as the favorite.
Tampa Bay (4-9) has lost three straight games with their 24-21 loss to Detroit last week. The Buccaneers have not only failed to cover in those three games but they have only paid off bettors in two of their last seven contests. But Tampa Bay has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing at least three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. This Buccaneers team entered the season with high expectations. While this year has been ruined, they can still play the role of spoiler against a divisional rival which should motivate them to play well without the burden of high expectations. Tampa Bay did allow 434 yards to the Lions in that loss — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers did hold Detroit to just 53 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing at least 75 rushing yards in their last game. Expect Tampa Bay to be inspired by the Miami Dolphins who pulled the upset last Monday night at home as the underdog against another divisional rival that played in last February’s Super Bowl. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (332) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-17-17 |
Cowboys v. Raiders UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
20-17 |
Win
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100 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (329) and the Oakland Raiders (330). Dallas (7-6) looks to build off their 30-10 win in New York against the Giants last week. The Cowboys have found their offense again as they dialed up 454 yards of offense behind a rushing attack that generated 122 yards of offense. Getting Tyron Smith healthy again at left tackle has made a big difference for this team as they have rushed the ball 73 times over their last two games for 304 rushing yards. Rushing the football tonight will keep the clock moving and help our Under tonight. As it is, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after they gained at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys stay on the road where they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total. Additionally, Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The Cowboys have also played 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC. And in their last 9 games in the month of December, Dallas has played 8 of these games Under the Total.
Oakland (6-7) looks to bounce-back from their 26-15 loss at Kansas City last week as a 4.5-point underdog. The Raiders have then played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Oakland is playing better on defense. Over their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 19.0 PPG along with just 297.3 total YPG. Now the Raiders return home where they have played 4 of their last games Under the Total. Oakland has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on grass. And in their last 5 games in the month of December, the Raiders have played 4 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (329) and the Oakland Raiders (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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