The PGA Tour moves to Fort Worth, Texas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par-70 tournament consisting of 7209 yards. Despite the impression of the total yardage length, this course plays as a shorter positional track. The four Par 3s are at least 190 yards and one of the Par 5 holes is 635 yards which gobbles up much of the yardage. Nine of the Par 4s are less than 445 yards in length. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass with the greens averaging 5000 square feet.

Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1400 odds to win this event at DraftKings. Morikawa has not won an event since the British Open in 2021. At the time, he looked like he would be winning plenty of first-place trophies with that being his fourth victory in two years. Despite the dry spell, he is lurking — and he will be motivated to take home a first-place finish given this dry spell. He settled for 26th place at the PGA Championship last week — although his gaining of four strokes versus the field in the Approach is promising. Morikawa does still have four top-15 finishes and four top-10s in 2023. He is an intriguing choice this week because he is a great fit with this golf course. He lost in a playoff here in 2020 in a week where he gained +3.2 strokes versus the field in putting. The blade tends to hold him back — so if he is gaining strokes on the field with his putter again, he will be tough to beat. He also has a 14th place and a tie for 40th place in his three trips to the Colonial Country Club. He has averaged a gain of +6.7 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in those three events. Morikawa’s elite Ball-Striking makes him a threat to win. He ranks tied for 10th on the tour in Ball-Striking this season — and he has gained +4 stroke every the field in Ball-Striking in his last five tournaments. In his last 24 rounds, Morikawa is third in the field in Strokes-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks fifth in the field in his last 24 rounds when playing at this tournament. Morikawa also ranks seventh in the field in Adjusted Scoring in the last two years on tracks featuring Bentgrass greens. Morikawa is linked with Sungjae Im in Round One head-to-head props. Im was a strong fade for me last week with him flying back to the US after winning a tournament in Korea the week before. Im missed the cut at the PGA Championship — and I still don’t like him this week as he continues his whirlwind globetrotting scheduling without a break. Im lost three strokes versus the field in the Approach which is usually one of the best aspects of his game. Im has two top-15 finishes at this tournament — but he also has missed two cuts and the more prestigious Memorial Tournament is next weekend. Like Morikawa, Im’s strength is not with his putter — he ranks 66th in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting. His iron play leaves room for improvement right now as he ranks 69th in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. This could become an issue on those short Par 4s — Im ranks 109th on the tour for 2022-23 in Proximity from 100 to 125 yards from the green. Take Morikawa (7147) versus Im (7148) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week to week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week to week.

The PGA Tour moves to Fort Worth, Texas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par-70 tournament consisting of 7209 yards. Despite the impression of the total yardage length, this course plays as a shorter positional track. The four Par 3s are at least 190 yards and one of the Par 5 holes is 635 yards which gobbles up much of the yardage. Nine of the Par 4s are less than 445 yards in length. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass with the greens averaging 5000 square feet.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Cam Davis who is listed at +3500 to win this event. Davis missed five straight cuts earlier this year during a span when he was dealing with health issues. He broke out of that slump with a tie for sixth place at THE Players Championship. He has two more top sevens since with a seventh place at the RBC Heritage and then a tie for fourth place at the PGA Championship last week. He comes into this week with confidence after a fourth round of 65. He was fourth last week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and that level of ball striking will help this week. Davis ranks 20th on the tour in Driving Distance — but he combines that length with accuracy as he ranks eighth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He ranks fifth in the field this week Off-the-Tee in his last 36 rounds. Davis has also gained +2.0 strokes versus the field Off-the-Tee in five straight tournaments. He comes off a tie for seventh place at this tournament last year in his third trip to this event. Davis is linked with Max Homa in Round One head-to-head props. Homa was on a good run to begin 2023 but he has only one top 40 in his last five tournaments. He missed the cut at the RBC Heritage and the doubles event at the Zurich Classic before showing promise again with a tie for eighth place at the Wells Fargo Championship three weeks ago. But Homa was a disappointment once again at a major championship with a tie for 55th place at the PGA Championship last week. Homa has a 23rd and 27th place in four professional trips to the Colonial Country Club — but he has also missed the cut twice. Take Davis (7144) versus Homa (7143) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week to week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week to week.

The PGA Tour moves to Fort Worth, Texas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par-70 tournament consisting of 7209 yards. Despite the impression of the total yardage length, this course plays as a shorter positional track. The four Par 3s are at least 190 yards and one of the Par 5 holes is 635 yards which gobbles up much of the yardage. Nine of the Par 4s are less than 445 yards in length. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass with the greens averaging 5000 square feet.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Justin Rose who is listed at +2500 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. I loved Rose when he was listed at +3000 on Monday — but I still like his value at +2500 so I will continue to endorse him. Rose thrives on short positional tracks like this. He won this event in 2018 with a tournament record 20-under par. He finished tied for third place in 2020 and then had a tie for 20th place in 2021. Rose is in great form right now after a tie for ninth place last week at the PGA Championship. He gained +4.6 strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green last week -- and he gained +2.54 strokes on Sunday with his irons. Rose has made the cut in five straight tournaments in a streak started by a tie for sixth place at THE Players Championship — and he took first place at another short positional track at Pebble Beach earlier this year. The veteran ranks 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total — and he has gained +1.61 strokes versus the field in his last 36 rounds. Rose is not long off the tee — but he ranks ninth in Good Drives Gained and 38th in Driving Accuracy which will help him attack these shorter Par 4s. Rose is also an outstanding putter who ranks 5th in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting on Bentgrass greens. Eighth of the last ten winners of this tournament finished in the top eight in Shots-Gained: Putting for the week. Rose also ranks ninth in the field this week in Adjusted Scoring on courses with Bentgrass greens in the last two years. Rose is linked with Sam Burns in Round One head-to-head matchups. Burns is given respect by the books and the betting market as the defending champion — but he is not in good form with two missed cuts at the PGA Wells Fargo Championship and then the PGA Championship last week. Burns is a great putter — but his ball-striking skills are waning this season. He ranks just 130th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 173rd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green for the 2022-23 season. Overall, Burns ranks 88th in the field in Ball-Striking as measured by Strokes-Gained: Off-the-Tee plus Strokes-Gained: Approach the Green.  Three of the last seven winners of this event led the field in Ball-Striking — and six of the last seven winners finished in the top seven in that metric. Take Rose (7114) versus Burns (7113) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to Pittsford, New York — just outside Rochester — at the Oak Hills Country Club where the East Course will host the PGA Championship. This course is a familiar stop for elite events — this is the location for the 1989 US Open and this will be the fourth PGA Championship hosted by the Oak Hills Country Club although major renovations in 2019 will make this a different experience from the 2013 PGA Championship for 156 professionals competing this week. The biggest change from 2013 is that more than 600 trees protecting the fairways have been removed. Missing the fairway may be forgiving this year — and that favors the pros that are long off the tee. This is Par 70 consisting of 7394 yards. There are only two Par 5 holes and they both are more than 600 yards long. The pros will have to contend with 78 bunkers and water comes into play on six of the holes. The greens are small — averaging 4800 square feet. The putting surface is pure Bentgrass that will measure up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter.

Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Brooks Koepka who is listed at DraftKings at +2000. With Scottie Scheffler the favorite at +700 and Jon Rahm just behind him at +750, those are underlay values at such short prices. We were on Rahm for the Masters — and I faded all the LIV golfers concerned about the lack of rigorous competition (with the guaranteed money) and the 54-hole tournaments. Koepka kept me nervous all weekend leading the tournament after each round before succumbing to the brutal Sunday schedule where he played about a third of the tournament given rain delays and the surge by Rahm. He was given no favors having to play more than 27 holes on that Sunday. But it was clear that he is as healthy as he has been in years. And the lack of being tested from week to week on the LIV Tour is not a concern for me when it comes to Koepka since he usually treated the non-majors on the PGA Tour as his practice rounds. Koepka has already won four major championships including two PGA Championships. He has five top-fives at PGA Championship events and six top-13s in his eight competitions overall. He seems to be a great fit for this course as well. His PGA Championship at Beth Page was another brutal Par 70 course — and his 2019 US Open victory at Shinnecock was another long Par 70 course. Koepka ranks second in the field in scoring at difficult Par 70 courses consisting of 7200 or more yards. Koepka is linked with Jason Day for head-to-head Tournament Matchups. Day comes off his first win on the PGA Tour since 2018 at the AT&T Byron Nelson Challenge last week. While his career is amid a resurgence this year, it may be difficult for him to not suffer an emotional letdown after the nice payday. I also don’t always love golfers who come off an intense weekend of competition the previous week given the physical and emotional toll that it can take. Day is playing better — he ranks seventh on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total for the 2022-23 season. But I still consider overvalued in this spot. He has not proven himself in recent history (post the Obama era) against elite competition. He finished tied for 39th at the Masters last month after a tie for 19th place at THE Players Championship. While Day is long off the tee and has a balanced game, his precision with his long irons could give him trouble this week. He ranks 127th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 175 to 200 yards — and he ranks 83rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 200 yards and farther. Day did win a PGA Championship in his career — but that was in 2015. His vertigo issues have tended to crop up at inopportune times since. Take Koepka (7015) versus Day (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props — and take the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to Pittsford, New York — just outside Rochester — at the Oak Hills Country Club where the East Course will host the PGA Championship. This course is a familiar stop for elite events — this is the location for the 1989 US Open and this will be the fourth PGA Championship hosted by the Oak Hills Country Club although major renovations in 2019 will make this a different experience from the 2013 PGA Championship for 156 professionals competing this week. The biggest change from 2013 is that more than 600 trees protecting the fairways have been removed. Missing the fairway may be forgiving this year — and that favors the pros that are long off the tee. This is Par 70 consisting of 7394 yards. There are only two Par 5 holes and they both are more than 600 yards long. The pros will have to contend with 78 bunkers and water comes into play on six of the holes. The greens are small — averaging 4800 square feet. The putting surface is pure Bentgrass that will measure up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Matthew Fitzpatrick who is listed at +3000 to win this tournament at DraftKings. Fitzpatrick has taken his game to the next level after breaking through with his first win at a major championship by winning last year’s US Open. Fitzpatrick has demonstrated that he is one of the best in the world when playing on difficult courses. He has three top-10 finishes in his last four majors including a tie for 10th place at the Masters last month and a tie for fifth place at the PGA Championship at Southern Hills. One of the reasons why Fitzpatrick thrives on difficult tracks is his elite skills getting up and down. He led the PGA Tour in Scrambling last year while ranking seventh in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He is a reliable putter who ranks 23rd in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. The weakness in his game has been his distance off the tee — but his improvements in that aspect of his game culminated in his US Open win last summer. He ranked 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee last year but just 70th in Driving Distance. While his Off-the-Tee rank has dropped to 34th this year (and the 2022-23 stats are still muddy with the season not halfway over yet), his Driving Distance rank has improved to 47th on the tour. Fitzpatrick also ranks fifth in the field in Bogey Avoidance over his last 24 rounds — and that skill will help at a tournament where the books list eight or nine under par with the best odds of being the winning score. Fitzpatrick is in good form with a win at Harbour Town a month ago. And he is flying under the radar with eyes on other golfers — like the one I am about to mention. Fitzpatrick is linked with Tony Finau for head-to-head Tournament Matchups. The perpetual bridesmaid — Finau is one of the betting public favorites once again this week with his fans breathlessly thinking that this will finally be the week where he breaks through to win his first major. Finau is well-balanced — and the PGA Championship is often the tournament where the first major is won. And Finau has raised his level of play with four wins on the PGA Tour since last year’s British Open. But those were events that did not feature loaded competition — such as the Mexico Open three weeks ago where most of the top golfers took the week off. Finau usually shrinks in loaded fields with solid but not great results. After his tie for 26th place at the Masters last month, Finau has not finished in the top five in his last nine majors. Finau does have a top-five finish in each major — and he has two top-ten finishes in each major championship. But he has finished outside the top ten in 17 of his 25 major champion competitions — a 68% rate. Maybe he flipped the switch after the British Open last summer — and his 26th place at Augusta last month was an outlier? Well, he finished tied for 19th place at THE Players in March. The weakest part of Finau’s game is in getting up and down — he ranks 53rd this season in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. With the small greens, the pros are going to have to chip on to the green and occasionally get out of the sand. Take Fitzpatrick (7022) versus Finau (7021) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props -- and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week to week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer per week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to Pittsford, New York — just outside Rochester — at the Oak Hills Country Club where the East Course will host the PGA Championship. This course is a familiar stop for elite events — this is the location for the 1989 US Open and this will be the fourth PGA Championship hosted by the Oak Hills Country Club although major renovations in 2019 will make this a different experience from the 2013 PGA Championship for 156 professionals competing this week. The biggest change from 2013 is that more than 600 trees protecting the fairways have been removed. Missing the fairway may be forgiving this year — and that favors the pros that are long off the tee. This is Par 70 consisting of 7394 yards. There are only two Par 5 holes and they both are more than 600 yards long. The pros will have to contend with 78 bunkers and water comes into play on six of the holes. The greens are small — averaging 4800 square feet. The putting surface is pure Bentgrass that will measure up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Tyrrell Hatton who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. Hatton is in great form six top-five finishes worldwide including a tie for fifth place last week at the AT&T Byron Nelson Challenge. He finished in second place at THE Players Championship in March. Hatton is looking for his first major championship — but he did finish tied for 13th at the PGA Championship last year. Hatton is lurking this season — he ranks third on the tour in the All-Around ranking. He is sixth in Adjusted Scoring and sixth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Hatton ranks 11th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he has the distance to handle this long course. There are 33 golfers in the field this week who average at least 305 yards off the tee — but only nine of those golfers also stay in the fairway at least 60% of the time in their last 50 rounds. Hatton is one of those nine pros. Hatton also ranks 22nd in Scrambing and 25th in Shots-Gained: Putting — so he has a balanced skill set. Hatton is linked with Collin Morikawa for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Morikawa is an elite ball-striker — but the other aspects of his game are works in progress right now. Morikawa did finish in tenth place at the Masters. But he settled for a tie for 31st place at Harbour Town the next week. He has since missed the cut at the team competition at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans before missing the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks ago. His putting continues to hold him back — he ranks 169th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is now changing his grip back to his old one after experimenting with a different style with his blade — but that is not a good sign. In his last 24 rounds, Morikawa ranks in the bottom-25 in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting with Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He ranks 107th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green this year which bodes trouble with the small greens this week. Morikawa is not as strong on the longer courses either — he ranks 148th on the tour in Driving Distance. Take Hatton (7034) versus Morikawa (7033) in Tournament Matchup head-to-heap props — and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week to week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer per week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas, Texas for its third straight year hosting the AT&T Byron Nelson Challenge. Previously a Par 72, the low scores prompted the organizers to shorten the distance on a Par 5 hole last year by 54 yards to make it a Par 4. This event at TPC Craig Ranch has been one of the easiest courses on the tour. After scoring averages of 69.574 in 2021, the average score last year was 69.217. This is a long course consisting of 7414 yards with wide fairways that average 36.4 yards. The rough consists of Bermuda grass of up to three inches. The putting surface is Bentgrass greens that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter with the greens averaging 6900 square feet. Rain and wind are expected this week — especially on the weekend.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Seamus Power who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. Power posted four top-25s early in 2023 but has been in a slump this spring. However, his tie for 18th place last week at the PGA Wells Fargo Championship was very encouraging as he gained strokes Off-the-Tee, Tee-to-Green, Around the Green, and Putting. Power thrives on easier courses. His two PGA Tour wins had him posting 21 under-par and 19 under-par scores. He ranks 23rd on the tour in Birdie or Better Average. He also ranks 26th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season — and he likes putting on Bentgrass. Power is also comfortable playing in windy conditions which could give him an edge this week. He finished tied for 9th place in 2021 at this tournament before a tie for 17th place last year — and he has averaged a score of 67.50 in those eight rounds. Power is linked with Maverick McNealy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. McNealy dealt with an injury earlier this year that resulted in him withdrawing from two tournaments. He has recovered by making the cut in three of his last four events — but he has not finished better than tied for 36th in his last five tournaments. He last played two weeks ago at the PGA Mexico Open where he finished tied for 60th place. McNealy leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — but that skill will not give him as big an edge this week on easier greens. McNealy is reliable in avoiding bogies — but that will not be enough this week. He ranks just 90th in Birdies or Better Percentage this season. He ranks 176th in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee and he is 145th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He finished tied for 32nd place at this tournament last year. Take Power (7021) versus McNealy (7022) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas, Texas for its third straight year hosting the AT&T Byron Nelson Challenge. Previously a Par 72, the low scores prompted the organizers to shorten the distance on a Par 5 hole last year by 54 yards to make it a Par 4. This event at TPC Craig Ranch has been one of the easiest courses on the tour. After scoring averages of 69.574 in 2021, the average score last year was 69.217. This is a long course consisting of 7414 yards with wide fairways that average 36.4 yards. The rough consists of Bermuda grass of up to three inches. The putting surface is Bentgrass greens that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter with the greens averaging 6900 square feet. Rain and wind are expected this week — especially on the weekend.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-10 favorites is on Tom Hoge who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Hoge comes into this event rested after a 17th place at the doubles tournament at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans three weeks ago. After missing the cut in two straight events, that was an encouraging performance. Hoge did finish tied for 3rd place at THE Players Championship in March — and he won at Pebble Beach last year. Hoge leads the PGA Tour in 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he is 2nd in the field in that metric in his last 24 rounds. Hoge also ranks 15th on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation this season. Hoge can put up a big number this week — he ranks in the top 30 in Par 3, Par 4, and Par 5 Scoring. He also ranks 10th on the tour in Par Breakers. And with three of the Par 3s consisting of 200 or more yards this week, he ranks 5th in the field in his last 24 rounds in Par 3 Scoring on holes of 200 or more yards. The TCU grad finished tied for 17th place with all four of his rounds in the 60s. Hoge opened this week at +4000 odds — but his price dropping down to +3500 technically has him inside the top-ten favorites now. I am still calling him a Long Shot for our investment purposes. Hoge is linked with Adam Hadwin in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Hadwin missed the cut last week at the Wells Fargo Championship. He did finish in 2nd place at the Zurich Classic doubles tournament last month — but he has missed the cut in three of his last five and four of his last six individual tournaments. Hadwin is not long off the tee — he ranks 144th in Driving Distance for 2022-23 so he is not a great fit for TPC Craig Ranch. His lack of length off the tee contributes to his ranking 89th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. While he is usually a reliable ball-striker, he only ranks 70th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season. His profile does not translate well for easier courses like this where low scores are expected. Hadwin ranks 73rd in Birdies or Better Percentage this season. That does not bode well at a tournament that had 2228 total birdies last year which was the most at any PGA Tour event since 1983. There were also 104 Eagles last year which was the second most on the tour since 1983. Hadwin missed the cut in his lone appearance at TPC Craig Ranch last year. Take Hoge (7026) versus Hadwin (7025) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas, Texas for its third straight year hosting the AT&T Byron Nelson Challenge. Previously a Par 72, the low scores prompted the organizers to shorten the distance on a Par 5 hole last year by 54 yards to make it a Par 4. This event at TPC Craig Ranch has been one of the easiest courses on the tour. After scoring averages of 69.574 in 2021, the average score last year was 69.217. This is a long course consisting of 7414 yards with wide fairways that average 36.4 yards. The rough consists of Bermuda grass of up to three inches. The putting surface is Bentgrass greens that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter with the greens averaging 6900 square feet. Rain and wind are expected this week — especially on the weekend.

Our Best Bet on the golfer who has the best chance to win this event is on Tom Kim who is listed at +1700 at DraftKings. Kim was the first professional since Tiger Woods to win two PGA Tour events before the age of 21. Both those tournaments were scoring tests with Kim taking the Shriner’s Children Open in Las Vegas with a score of 24 under par before winning the Wyndham Championship with a score of 20 under — so he seems comfortable in birdies fests that this tournament has been at TPC Craig Ranch. Kim is working on increasing his distance off the tee — and he will benefit from the wide fairways. And while his putter can be a concern, this is one of the least challenging putting surfaces on the tour this week. After a red-hot fall, Kim has not registered a top-15 finish since the American Express in January. But he did finish tied for 16th place at the Masters — and he comes off an encouraging tie for 23rd place last week at the Wells Fargo Championship. He gained +11.36 strokes against the field last week including +9.0 shots from Tee-to-Green. Kim ranks 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for 2022-23 — and he also ranks 11th in Greens-In-Regulation. Kim also ranks 5th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance this season — and of the top-15 finishers the last two seasons, 78% of them posted positive numbers in Bogey Avoidance in their last 24 rounds coming into this tournament. Kim also ranks 6th in the field in adjusted scoring over the last two years on driver-heavy courses. He finished tied for 17th place last year in his first year competing at this tournament — so the 20-year-old will have an edge in course experience this time around. Kim is linked with Hideki Matsuyama in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. I love Matsuyama as a golfer — and we have made money off him plenty of times over the years. But he withdrew from the Wells Fargo Championship last week to travel back to Japan for treatment. So not only is he dealing with an injury but he has traveled across the globe a couple of times in the last week. The PGA Championship is next weekend — and that major is the higher priority for Matsuyama (and pros like Scottie Scheffler who presents underlay value with his low return price of +380). Matsuyama is using this week as practice rounds for next week — and there is a decent chance he may pull out of the event if his neck still bothers him. He has not played since the Masters when he finished tied for 16th — so rust is also an issue for him if he plays all four rounds this week. Take Kim (7011) versus Matsuyama (7012) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7538 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 33.4 yards. The rough is thick up to 2 1/2 inches of ryegrass. With lakes and trees serving as obstacles, the last three times that Quail Hollow has hosted this tournament, it has ranked as one of the top-eight most difficult events on the PGA Tour for the season. The putting surface consists of Bermudagrass with overseeing Poa annua grass.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Cameron Young who is listed at +1800 at DraftKings. Young began the week priced at +2000 — so while his odds have shortened, I am still endorsing him as one of our three golfers to target this week. Since joining the tour, Young has registered ten top-five finishes in his 38 professional events. While he is still looking for his first PGA Tour victory, he has finished second place six times. Young is one of the longest drivers on the tour — he ranks third in Driving Distance. In his last eight tournaments, he has gained +9.08 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and those results have corresponded with three top-ten finishes. Young is also a good ball striker who is long with his irons. He ranks 18th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He ranks fifth in the field in Proximity to the hole from 200 yards or farther in his last 24 rounds and he ranks fifth in the field this week in Par 4 Scoring on holes from 450-500 yards in his last 24 rounds. He has gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in six of his last eight events. Young did get professional experience at Quail Hollow at the President’s Cup last fall. His length should give him an edge this week. Young is linked with Collin Morikawa in Round One head-to-head props. Morikawa finished tenth at the Masters but then settled for a tie for 31st place at the RBC Heritage before missing the cut at the doubles event at the Zurich Classic two weeks ago. Quail Hollow is not a great fit for Morikawa’s skill set since he is not a big hitter off the tee. He ranks 147th on the tour in Driving Distance. He ranks 65th on the tour in the Approach from 200 yards or farther away. Putting is not Morikawa’s strong suit either — he ranks 140th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. The last three winners at Quail Hollow all finished in the top three for the week in putting. He does not have a course history edge on Young as his only trip here was for last year’s President’s Cup. Take Young (7138) versus Morikawa (7137) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.     

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7538 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 33.4 yards. The rough is thick up to 2 1/2 inches of ryegrass. With lakes and trees serving as obstacles, the last three times that Quail Hollow has hosted this tournament, it has ranked as one of the top-eight most difficult events on the PGA Tour for the season. The putting surface consists of Bermudagrass with overseeing Poa annua grass.

Our Best Bet to win this event is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +1800 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Success at this event requires effective second shots to avoid trouble and set up birdies or pars. Hovland is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour. He ranks 15th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 14th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. In his last seven starts, he has gained +44.82 strokes gained versus the field in Ball-Striking. He has gained strokes versus the field in Ball-Striking in 14 straight tournaments. He leads the field in All-Around Scoring — and ranks second overall on the tour in that metric. In his last 24 rounds, Hovland ranks second in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, ninth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and seventh in Proximity to the hole from 200 yards or farther out. He also ranks ninth in the field in adjusted scoring when playing on difficult courses over the last two years. Hovland will have something to prove after a disappointing 59th place at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago. But he has been quite consistent with his last missed cut at a non-major being 15 months ago. He has finished in the top ten in three of his last five events.  And in his previous visit to Quail Hollow, he finished tied for third place. Hovland is linked with Justin Thomas for Round One head-to-head props. Thomas won the PGA Championship here in 2017 — but he has settled for 21st place at the Wells Fargo here in 2018 and then 26th place in 2021. Thomas is not in good form this year. He missed the cut at the Masters — and then he finished tied for 25th place at the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head the next week in his most recent tournament. Thomas is off with his irons. While ranking 42nd on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green is respectable, that is far below his elite standards. He ranks 174th in Approach from 200 yards or farther out from the green. Thomas is also struggling with his putter as he ranks 152nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. The last three winners at Quail Hollow ranked in the top three in putting for the week. Take Hovland (7136) versus Thomas (7135) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7538 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 33.4 yards. The rough is thick up to 2 1/2 inches of ryegrass. With lakes and trees serving as obstacles, the last three times that Quail Hollow has hosted this tournament, it has ranked as one of the top-eight most difficult events on the PGA Tour for the season. The putting surface consists of Bermudagrass with overseeing Poa annua grass.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Tyrrell Hatton who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Hatton has registered three top-six finishes in his last eight tournaments on the PGA Tour headlined by a second-place finish at THE Players Championship in March. His elite ball-striking skills make him a threat on any given week. Hatton ranks ninth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He ranks 12th in the Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 16th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He has played at Quail Hollow two other times — he missed the cut at the 2017 PGA Championship and settled for 42nd place at the Wells Fargo in 2018. While those are not great results, that has helped us get a better number with him this week. Hatton is linked with Rickie Fowler for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Fowler is enjoying one of his best seasons in years with a 17th-place or better finish in seven of his last eight events. He comes off a tie for 15th place at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago at Hilton Head. But Fowler seems to have a plateau as well since he has not finished better than 10th place in his last eight tournaments. Fowler has a long history at Quail Hollow although he missed the cut in his most recent visit in 2021. Of concern is his 192nd ranking in Approach from 200 yards or farther out for the 2022-23 season. Take Hatton (7028) versus Fowler (7027) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

After the doubles event in New Orleans last week, the PGA Tour returns to individual stroke play this week with the PGA Mexico Open at the Greg Norman Signature Course in Vedanta Vallarta in Mexico. This is the second time this tournament is on the PGA Tour after Jon Rahm won the inaugural event last year. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 42.3% of the second shots were from at least 200 yards away which was +19.4% higher than the tour average — so this course plays long. While the fairways are wide, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The greens consist of Paspalum greens that measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Nicolaj Hojgaard who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. The 22-year-old Dane has three professional victories worldwide but is looking for his first victory on the PGA Tour. His tied for 32nd place in the doubles event in New Orleans last week may look underwhelming at first glance — but he gained +7.6 strokes versus the field while his partner, Thorsjoan Olesen, lost -10.5 strokes versus the field. Hojgaard finished in second place at the Coralas Puntacana Championship in late March which featured Paspalum greens like the course this week. He led the field in Driving Distance and was tied for first in Greens-In-Regulation that week. Hojgaard leads the field this week in Driving Distance which should give him an edge this week. He is also a fine ball-striker — he gained +5.6 strokes in Approach the Green when finishing in 28th at the PGA Valero Open in early April. He has four top 13 finishes in his last seven events worldwide with two top-fives in his last four events worldwide. This is a star in the making — and he may have the talent and gravitas to take on Rahm this week. Hojgaard is linked with Aaron Rai in Round One head-to-head props. Rai was the first-round leader at this tournament last year — and he was the first-round leader at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago. Frankly, I find Round One results to be pretty muddy from week to week. Rai settled for 24th place at this tournament last year — and he fell to a tie for 48th place at the RBC Heritage. Rai comes off a tie for 13th place at the team event in New Orleans last week. His best showing in 2023 was a tie for 19th place at THE Players Championship — but that was also his best result in individual play in his last 11 tournaments. He is not a big driver — he ranks 154th on the tour in Driving Distance. He ranks 64th on the tour in Approach the Green — and he is 62nd on the tour in Approaches from 200 or more yards from the green. He ranks 126th in Par 5 Scoring this season which is a bad sign this week since nine of the top 20 finishers in Par 5 Scoring then finished in the top 15 overall last year. Rai also ranks 86th in Bogey Avoidance this season — and that may be a problem when considering that the top 32 finishers at this tournament last year combined for only nine rounds over par. Take Hojgaard (7148) versus Rai (7147) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

After the doubles team event in New Orleans last week, the PGA Tour returns to individual stroke play this week with the PGA Mexico Open at the Greg Norman Signature Course in Vedanta Vallarta in Mexico. This is the second time this tournament is on the PGA Tour after Jon Rahm won the inaugural event last year. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 42.3% of the second shots were from at least 200 yards away which was +19.4% higher than the tour average — so this course plays long. While the fairways are wide, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The greens consist of Paspalum greens that measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Ben Martin who is listed at +6000 odds at DraftKings. Martin missed the cut last week at the team event in New Orleans — but he has made seven straight cuts on the PGA Tour in individual play. He has four top-15 finishes in his last seven tournaments including a tie for eighth place at the Corales Puntana Championship which featured Paspalum greens like at this course. Martin’s ball-striking is in great form right now — he has gained  +1.0 strokes versus the field in his last 36 rounds. Martin ranks 15th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks fifth in the field this week in Opportunities Gained on approaches within 12 feet. He played but missed the cut at this tournament last year — but he is in much better form now and should benefit from that course experience. Martin is linked with Patton Kizzire in Round One head-to-head props. Kizzire missed the cut in five straight events earlier in the season — but he has now made five straight cuts after a tie for 26th place at the team event in New Orleans. But Kizzire is not an elite ball striker. He ranks 150th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 141st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Kizzire also ranks 151st on the tour in Bogey Avoidance — and — and that may be a problem when considering that the top 32 finishers at this tournament last year combined for only nine rounds over par. Kizzire did not play at this tournament last year which gives Martin an additional edge. Take Martin (7144) versus Rai (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

After the doubles event in New Orleans last week, the PGA Tour returns to individual stroke play this week with the PGA Mexico Open at the Greg Norman Signature Course in Vedanta Vallarta in Mexico. This is the second time this tournament is on the PGA Tour after Jon Rahm won the inaugural event last year. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 42.3% of the second shots were from at least 200 yards away which was +19.4% higher than the tour average — so this course plays long. While the fairways are wide, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The greens consist of Paspalum greens that measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter.

Our Best Bet on the golfer who is most likely to win this event is Wyndham Clark who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Rahm is the short favorite at +260 at DraftKings — but that is an underlay in terms of value, so I am passing on our Masters' winner out of principle. Since 2019, there have been 23 golfers on the PGA Tour priced at +700 or shorter (excluding the PGA Tour Championship in Atlanta which uses staggered scores to begin that final playoff event of the season). Only three of those short favorites went on to win the tournament — and their average finish was 22.4. I prefer Clark who is hungry for his first win on the PGA Tour. The 29-year-old comes in this event in great form after a third-place finish at the Zurich Classic doubles event in New Orleans last week where he teams with Beau Hossler. With a fifth place at the Valspar Championship and a sixth-place finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship, Clark has three top-six finishes in three of his last four tournaments. He has made the cut in 14 straight tournaments. And what is intriguing about that finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship was that course also consisted of the Paspalum greens that are common in Mexico and the Caribbean. Clark is 11th on the tour in Driving Distance — so he should have an advantage off the tee this week. He ranks 14th on the tour in Par 5 Scoring — and nine of the top twenty players in Par 5 Scoring last year at this tournament finished in the top 15 overall. Clark is also good with his irons — he ranks fourth in the field in his last 24 rounds and fifth in the field in the last 36 rounds in Ball-Striking. He also ranks fourth in the field in Opportunities Gained within 15 feet of the hole in the last two years. Clark is margin his debut at this tournament — but course history is not a significant factor in just the second year on the tour for this event. I think it speaks volumes that Clark chose to participate — it suggests he thinks this is an event he can win. Clark is linked with Tony Finau in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Finau finished in second place at this event last year after a closing round of 63 — and he is now the second shortest favorite at +800 odds to win the tournament. I consider Finau one of the most overrated professionals on the tour. He did win three events in the second half of the summer tour last year — and they were against weaker fields like this. But Finau is not in great form right now. He has lost strokes off-the-tee in four straight events — and he has lost 5.32 strokes versus the field in putting in those last four tournaments. After finishing tied for 26th place at the Masters, he settled for a tie for 31st place at the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head the next week. Finau has a high floor — but he continues to disappoint those who expect a big ceiling. Take Clark (7004) versus Finau (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced not higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7121 yards with just three Par 5 holes. The average round last year at this tournament was 70.739. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 147 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. The greens consist of overseeded Bermudagrass that will only measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. Last year, only 58% of the greens were hit in regulation. This is the eighth designated event on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened total purse of $20 million — and this is why there is a stacked field this week.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Sungjae Im who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. Im settled for a tie for 16th last week at the Masters which was his fourth straight top-21 or better finish on the tour including a tie for sixth place at the Players Championship. Im is a workhorse who engages in one of the busiest schedules on the tour — so there should not be a hangover from competing at the Masters last week. Im is solid across the board with all his clubs although distance off the tee is not his strongest suit since his 297.5-yardage average with his driver is only +0.4 yards above the PGA Tour average. A shorter course like Harbour Town plays into Im’s biggest strengths. Im thrives on courses with Bermuda grass. He ranks 13th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is fifth in the field this week in Shots-Gained on Pete Dye-designed coursed. Im also leads the PGA Tour in the Approach from 175 to 200 yards which is vital for this tournament. Last year, 26.2% of the iron shots were from that distance — an increase of more than 10% over the tour average. This is Im’s fifth trip to this tournament after posting a tie for 13th place and a tie for 21st place. He has gained +2.9 strokes per round versus the field Off-the-Tee in his four previous events here. Im is linked with Cameron Young in Round One head-to-head trips. Young comes off a tie for seventh place at the Masters last week — and he may be primed for a letdown after a second-place finish two weeks ago at the World Golf Championships Match Play event. But Young did not finish better in tenth place in his previous seven events before the last two tournaments. One of Young’s biggest strengths is Off-the-Tee as he ranks third on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance — but this is not the course that he can use that skill to his advantage. Granted, Young struggles with his putter — he ranks 183rd in Shots-Gained: Putting -- but the smaller greens probably helps to neutralize this weakness in his game. My bigger concern for Young is his play Around the Green where he ranks 142nd on the tour. The flip side problem with the smaller greens is that it is more challenging to reach the Greens-In-Regulation. Seven of the last ten winners of this event finished in the top ten for the week in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green which demonstrates the importance of this skill at this tournament. Young did finish for a tie for third place in his debut here last year after opening the tournament with a round of 63 — but I do not expect a similarly hot start for the second-year professional after being in contention at Augusta National last week. Play Im (7140) versus Young (7139) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab Im at +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7121 yards with just three Par 5 holes. The average round last year at this tournament was 70.739. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 147 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. The greens consist of overseeded Bermudagrass that will only measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. Last year, only 58% of the greens were hit in regulation. This is the eighth designated event on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened total purse of $20 million — and this is why there is a stacked field this week.

Our Best Bet on the golfer most likely to win this event is on Patrick Cantlay who is listed at +1100 odds at DraftKings. I am looking for pros who are not likely to suffer hangovers from playing at the Masters last week — and given Cantlay’s underwhelming success at major championships, this is a week for him to step up with the pressure diminished a bit. Cantlay was in contention going into Sunday last week — but his putter let him down as he settled for a tie for 14th place. The smaller greens this week neutralize players coming in at a disadvantage with their blades. Cantlay was great with his irons last week as he gained nearly 6.0 shots versus the field in Approach-the-Green. Seven of the last nine winners of this tournament finished in the top ten for the week in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Cantlay has now finished in the top-19 in five straight tour events headlined by a third-place finish at the Genesis Invitational — so he is close. Cantlay ranks fourth on the tour for ’22-23 in Greens In Regulation and sixth in Shots-Gained: Total. He is fourth on the tour in Ball-Striking — and he is second on tour by gaining +20 strokes in Ball-Striking versus the field in his last 20 rounds. Cantlay also ranks sixth in the field in the last two years in adjusted scoring on courses that require less than driver off the tee. Cantlay has a great track record at Harbour Town. He has finished in the top seven in four of his five trips including a tie for third place in 2017 and 2019 and second place last year after losing in a playoff to Jordan Spieth. Cantlay is well-versed in playing well at this event the week after the Masters. Cantlay is matched with Xander Schauffele in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Schauffele comes off a tie for 10th place at the Masters last week — but there are still some problems in his game that are holding him back. Schauffele is slumping with his accuracy off the tee and with his wedge play. He currently ranks 124th on the tour in Driver Accuracy this season which is the primary reason he also ranks 125th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. This is the wrong course to be inaccurate off the tee. Schauffele also ranks 126th in Approaches from 200 yards or farther away from the hole — and he ranks 196th in Approaches from 125 to 150 yards. He has not had great success at this event with zero top-30 finishes in his three previous trips. Take Cantlay (7009) versus Schauffele (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7121 yards with just three Par 5 holes. The average round last year at this tournament was 70.739. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 147 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. The greens consist of overseeded Bermudagrass that will only measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. Last year, only 58% of the greens were hit in regulation. This is the eighth designated event on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened total purse of $20 million — and this is why there is a stacked field this week.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +3000 at DraftKings. Lowry splits his time between the PGA Tour and the European Tour — and he regularly competes at the RBC Heritage the week after the Masters. He had a good week at Augusta National dealing with the elements as he finished tied for 16th place. Wind is expected for the weekend at Hilton Head — and he is one of the best players in the world when dealing with the wind. Lowry has three top-20 finishes in his last six events on the PGA Tour. He is playing well — he has finished in the top 10% in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in four of his last five tournaments. Lowry’s putter is letting him down with some bad luck — but the smaller greens should neutralize this issue as of late. Lowry leads the field in Shots-Gained on Pete Dye-designed courses in his last 24 rounds. He also ranks 12th in the field in Adjusted Scoring on courses requiring less than driver in the last two years. Lowry has three top-ten finishes in his five trips to this tournament. He has gained shots versus the field with his putter in four of those events — and he has gained more than 11 strokes versus the field with his putter overall in those five tournaments. Lowry is linked with Xander Schauffele for Round One head-to-head matchups. Schauffele comes off a tie for 10th place at the Masters last week — but there are still some problems in his game that are holding him back. Schauffele is slumping with his accuracy off the tee and with his wedge play. He currently ranks 124th on the tour in Driver Accuracy this season which is the primary reason he also ranks 125th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. This is the wrong course to be inaccurate off the tee. Schauffele also ranks 126th in Approaches from 200 yards or farther away from the hole — and he ranks 196th in Approaches from 125 to 150 yards. He has not had great success at this event with zero top-30 finishes in his three previous trips. Take Lowry (7110) versus Schauffele (7109) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab Lowry at +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with The Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7545 yards. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.951. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet and play ultra-fast measuring up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The tournament features 88 professionals including 18 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players will make the weekend cut. Rain is expected on the weekend which will amp up the winds while the temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-50s.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Justin Rose who is listed at +5000 odds at DraftKings. Rose last played three weeks ago when he settled for a tie for 36th place at the PGA Valspar Championship — but he remains in good form. He finished in a tie for 6th place at the PLAYERS Championship — and he won the AT&T Pebble Beach Invitational in January. The Englishman is well-versed in handily windy and rainy conditions that might be on the way this weekend — and he will probably avoid any afternoon rain on Friday with his early tee time after going off late on Thursday. For the 2022-23 season, he ranks 22nd in Shots-Gained: Total. He has gained strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green in six straight tournaments. He is in a better position to handle the narrow fairways this week as well. He ranks 17th on the tour this season in Driving Accuracy. Furthermore, he is one of the best putters on the tour — and he ranks second in the field for his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained: Putting on Bentgrass greens. The 42-year-old knows Augusta National as well as any of his peers this week with this being his 18th trip to play in the Masters. He has six top-ten finishes with two second-place results. He did miss the cut last year — but he finished in seventh place in 2021 and has 11 top-25 finishes in his last 13 Masters. Rose has also finished as the Day One leader four times in his career at this tournament. Rose is linked with Joaquin Niemann in Round One head-to-head props. Niemann is one of the 18 professionals from the LIV Tour playing in this event. He does not appear to be in great form. After an 11th-place finish on the LIV Tour, he has settled for 36th and then 31st places in his last two events — even with the talent pool dropping off when compared to the PGA Tour. I am skeptical about how the LIV players will do this week in the first Masters since the schism took place. The LIV Tour is only 54 holes but without cuts  — so the dynamic and endurance required are different. This intangible is mitigated a bit in a Round One prop — but there is still less urgency for all the LIV golfers on Day One since they are guaranteed to play all 54 holes. Second, the LIV Tour is a team event with aggregate scores measured — so it is not individual stroke play. Third, I am not sure how all these LIV golfers will react to being seen as outsiders crashing the gate. Niemann is on record saying that “they hate us” when talking about how the PGA Tour pros feel about those who left for the LIV Tour. Maybe the Patrick Reeds of the world revel in being hated, but guys like Niemann may feel uncomfortable. Lastly, the appeal of the LIV Tour is the guaranteed money they receive — and has that changed the motivational angles for these pros? The top pros on the LIV Tour have not exactly torn things up on that circuit. Cam Smith only left for the LIV Tour after winning the British Open. Like Deshaun Watson underwhelming for the Cleveland Browns after signing a fully-guaranteed free agent deal and even Russell Wilson inking his deal with Denver with our $180 million guaranteed, has the security of all that money simply taken the edge off the LIV pros? Regarding Niemann, the 24-year-old Chilean has not had great success at Augusta National. His best finish was last year when he settled for 35th place. He finished in 40th place in 2021 after missing the cut in his 2018 debut. Take Rose (7148) versus Niemann (7147) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with The Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7545 yards. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.951. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet and play ultra-fast measuring up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The tournament features 88 professionals including 18 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players will make the weekend cut. Rain is expected on the weekend which will amp up the winds while the temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-50s.

Our Best Bet on the golfer most likely to win this event is on Jon Rahm who is listed at +850 at DraftKings. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Rahm are the definitive top-three favorites before Jordan Spieth comes in at +1800. I have a few reasons why I am fading Scheffler — mostly because his +650 price is simply too low and clear underlay territory for me. There has not been a repeat champion since Tiger Woods in 2002 — so there appears to be an added disadvantage of dealing with defending champion responsibilities that add to the burden of winning this event. Frankly, I think Rahm is the best golfer in the world — and he will be very motivated to win his first green jacket. It was only a month ago when Rahm was generally considered the best player in the world after winning five tournaments in a nine-event stretch. He has three victories on the PGA Tour in 2023 — the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the American Express, and then the Genesis Invitational — with two of those tournaments now elevated events with a higher purse for the winner (the PGA Tour’s response to the pressure put on them by the competing LIV Tour). Some bettors were spooked by Rahm shooting a pair of 76s over the weekend at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I still took Rahm for The PLAYERS Championship — but, unfortunately, he had to withdraw due to a stomach bug. It happens. Rahm then did not advance out of the group stage play in the World Golf Championships Match Play event two weeks ago — but I am simply not going to read much into Match Play results. This is, by far, the biggest tournament of the year so far for 2023. Rahm enters this event leading the field in Adjusting Scoring, Par-Breakers, and Par-3 Scoring. For the 2022-23 season, he ranks third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, fourth in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, 17th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green, and 12th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is second in the field in Shots-Gained at Augusta National in his last 24 rounds. He has accrued at least +2.0 shots-gained versus the field in 10 of his last 20 rounds at Augusta National. Rahm has never finished worse than 27th place in his six previous trips to the Masters. He has registered four top-tens. Finally, since 2016 amongst the 30 pros to play at least 20 rounds, he is only one of two professionals (Hideki Matsuyama) to have gained strokes versus the field in each of his rounds. Rahm is linked with McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. With four victories in the last ten months, McIlroy remains a very popular choice. But everybody’s favorite has not won a major championship since 2014. So while Barack Obama began dealing with the ramifications of the final midterm elections in his second Presidential term to four years of Donald Trump to more than two years of Joe Biden, while others have been whiffing on McIlroy at a major championship, we have (mostly) looked elsewhere. I will probably continue this approach until if and when McIlroy proves me wrong at a major. His second-place finish at the Masters last year impressed many observers — but his great Sunday came after he was already out of the tournament so the pressure was off. If he is in contention, I have faith that he will find a way to blow it at a major championship … again. McIlroy has recently changed his driver and his putter — and the results at the World Golf Championships Match Play event two weeks ago were very encouraging. But see my earlier remarks about match-play tournaments. And I just don’t love any pro making significant equipment changes before a major. McIlroy’s putter is letting him down this season — he ranks 175th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. McIlroy also ranks only 140th in Greens In Regulation for ’22-23 — and seven of the last eight winners at the Masters finished in the top seven that week in Greens In Regulation. Take Rahm (7004) versus McIlroy (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab Rahm at +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with The Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7545 yards. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.951. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet and play ultra-fast measuring up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The tournament features 88 professionals including 18 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players will make the weekend cut. Rain is expected on the weekend which will amp up the winds while the temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-50s.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Sungjae Im who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. Im has the ball-striking and short-game skills to put on a green jacket. It was these attributes that helped him finish tied for second place in his debut at Augusta National in the November 2020 event (pushed back from April because of COVID). Im missed the cut then in April of 2021 but he bounced back with a tie for eighth place last year. Now in his fourth trip to Augusta, Im can start building on his past experiences here with the Masters being perhaps the tournament where course history gives a player the biggest edge (everything else being equal, which it never is). Im is in good form with a 21st place or better in six of his last eight events. He followed up an impressive sixth-place finish at the PLAYERS Championship with a tie for 17th place at the World Golf Championship Match Play event. This course rewards golfers who thrive with their second shot — and Im has gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in seven straight stroke play events. And if IM misses the green, he ranks fourth in the field in his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Im is one of the most well-rounded golfers on the tour. He ranks 15th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 13th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Im is linked with Cameron Young in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Young comes off a second place at the WGC Match Play event two weeks ago which was his best finish this season. His only top-ten at a strokes play event in 2023 was his tenth-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He finished in a tie for 51st place at the PLAYERS Championship last month. I like Young and have invested in him several times in the last year — but he is not a good fit for Augusta National in similar ways Bryson DeChambeau has struggled at this event with no top-20 finishes. Young is also a big hitter who ranks third on the tour this season in Driving Distance — and that helps him rank 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But when Tiger Woods was having success at Augusta National early in his career, he was hitting fairways. Young ranks 141st in Driving Accuracy this season. While missing the fairway does not result in a disadvantage when it comes to the rough, the challenge to hit the green remains. The name of the game this week is finding the strategic angles to set up those second shots — and that is not Young’s game (as opposed to Im). If Young misses his second shot, he will be in trouble. He ranks 143rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He ranks 155th in Scrambling. He then ranks 86th in Shots-Gained: Putting. This is Young’s only second trip to Augusta National so he lacks significant experience. He missed the cut at the Masters last year. Take Im (7028) versus Young (7027) in Tournament Matchup head-to-hear props (and grab Im at +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The professionals will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event. Last year, only 56% of their drives off the tee landed in the fairway, a drop from the 62% PGA Tour average. The average score was 71.763 per round last year. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Corey Connors who is listed at +2500 at DraftKings to win this tournament. Connors earned his 8th top-25 finish for the 2022-23 season last week with his tie for 17th place at the World Golf Championships Match Play event. But without a top-ten this season, Connors could use a good week and the payday. He has qualified for the Masters next week so he can focus his energies on winning this event again after using his 2019 victory here at TPC San Antonio to qualify for the Masters that next week. In all, Connors has made all four cuts when competing at this event with an average score of 69.81. Commented Connors about his affinity for this tournament: “My natural shot seems to fit really well on a lot of these holes, which I like. That's why I like the golf course so much." Connors is one of the best ball-strikers in the field this week. He ranks second in the field this week in Opportunities Gained in his last 24 rounds. He is fifth in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in his last 24 rounds — and he ranks fourth in the field this week in Ball-Striking in his last 24 rounds. Connors is linked with Tyrrell Hatton in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Hatton is one of my favorites on the tour — but this is not a good week to back him even if he has the shortest odds to win. Hatton injured his hand last week at the Match Play event where he lost all three of his matchups. I would not be surprised if he withdrew from the event before it concludes. Hatton’s eyes are set on Augusta National next week — so even if he plays all four rounds, he is not likely to push it. And this is his first time here at TPC San Antonio so he lacks course familiarity relative to his peers. Take Connors (7002) versus Hatton (7001) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab Connors at +1.5 strokes if available and not priced higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The professionals will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event. Last year, only 56% of their drives off the tee landed in the fairway, a drop from the 62% PGA Tour average. The average score was 71.763 per round last year. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.

Our Best Bet on the golfer with the best chance to win this tournament is on Si Woo Kim who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Kim won the PGA Sony Open in January — and he has registered seven top-40 finishes in his last eight events after a tie for 17th place at the World Golf Championships Match Play tournament last week. Kim is a good ball-striker who deserves his short odds this week given the depleted field the week before the Masters. Kim ranks third in the field this week in Opportunities Gained in his last 24 rounds. He is 9th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 22nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — so his length and his ball-striking should put him in position for birdies. And while this tournament has ranked in the top-13 for most difficult in reaching Greens-In-Regulation, Kim ranks 24th on the tour in Scrambling. Kim ranks 20th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total this season. After missing the cut in his first trip here in 2016, Kim has made all five cuts since with four top-25 finishes including a tie for 4th place in 2019. And I like that Kim has already qualified for the Masters next week which will not put added pressure on him to compete this week. That is not the case for Rickie Fowler who must hoist the first-place trophy to earn his right to go back to Augusta National to compete. Fowler is playing better golf lately with nine straight cuts made with six top-20s. But this guy remains perpetually overrated after many near misses at major tournaments over the last decade. But Fowler has not actually won a PGA tournament since the WM Phoenix Open in 2019. He ranks 83rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he is 70th in Scrambling. He has two 17th-place finishes at this event — but I don’t think the extra pressure this week does him any favors. Take Kim (7003) versus Fowler (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The professionals will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event. Last year, only 56% of their drives off the tee landed in the fairway, a drop from the 62% PGA Tour average. The average score was 71.763 per round last year. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.

Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Cam Davis who is listed at +5500 odds at DraftKings. Cam Davis had made the cut in 13 of 14 PGA Tour events after a tie for 32nd place at the PGA Sony Open in January. But Davis then missed five straight cuts this season. He later confessed during the PLAYERS Championship that he had been battling an illness during that stretch that impacted his game. I think Davis deserves the benefit of the doubt after finishing tied for 6th place at TPC Sawgrass with the PLAYERS considered the unofficial “fifth” major for the competitors on the PGA Tour. He was then in fine form last week at the WGC Match Play Invitational where he finished 2-1-0 in his three matches. He registered 11 birdies in his final two matches against Tom Hoge and Aaron Wise. Davis leads the field this week in Par 5 Scoring in his last 24 rounds — and that will be critical for success this week. Five of the last six winners of this tournament finished in the top ten in Par 5 Scoring with the lone exception being last year when JJ Spaun finished 12th in Par 5 Scoring. Distance matters this week given the length of the course — and going long offers an advantage if the wind is going to keep many of the pros off the fairway. Davis ranks 16th on the tour this season with a Driving Distance average of 310.1 yards. Davis ranks 20th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — even with his earlier struggles with illness. This is his third trip here after making the cut for the first time  three years ago. Davis is linked with Alex Noren in Round One head-to-head props. Noren makes his debut at TPC San Antonio which puts him at a competitive disadvantage with Davis. His game does not match up well with the challenges the course will offer. Noren is just 79th in Driving Distance for 2022-23 — and that drags down his Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee ranking to 176th on the tour. Noren’s ball-striking has been questionable this season as well. He ranks 100th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 89th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Furthermore, he ranks only 144th in Par 5 Scoring. Noren’s form has not been great as well. After missing the cut at the PLAYERS Championship earlier this month, he finished tied for 52nd place at WGC Match Play Invitational last week. Take Davis (7140) versus Noren (7139) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab Davis at +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The Florida swing of the PGA Tour concludes its four-week run by moving to Northwest Tampa in Pearl Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of five Par 3s, four Par 5s, and just nine Par 4s. The course consists of 7340 yards with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 22 yards. The rough is as high as 3 3/4 inches. The TifEagle Bermuda greens average 5800 square feet and measure up to 12 1/2 inches on the stimpmeter.

Our Best Bet on the golfer with the best chance to win the tournament is on Justin Rose who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings. Heavy winds that will gust up to 20 miles per hour are expected — with the worst of it beginning to come on Friday afternoon. Rose is intriguing because he tees off late on Thursday and then early on Friday — helping him avoid perhaps the worst of the weather in the first two days. Rose is in very good form right now coming off a tie for 6th place at the PLAYERS Championship last week. He won the AT&T Pebble Beach Invitational last month. The Englishman is well-versed in handily windy conditions. For the 2022-23 season, he ranks 18th in Shots-Gained: Total. He is in a better position to handle the narrow fairways this week as well. He ranks 16th on the tour this season in Driving Accuracy. Furthermore, he ranks 5th in the field this week in Good Drives Gained in his last 24 rounds. He has made the cut at this tournament in seven of his 11 appearances with five top-15s. Rose is linked with Matt Fitzpatrick in Round One head-to-head props. Fitzpatrick missed the cut at The PLAYERS Championship last week which was the third time in his last five events that he failed to qualify for the weekend. Fitzpatrick’s iron play is letting him down — he ranks 168th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this season. This is the wrong course to enter struggling with one’s second shot. Take Rose (7138) versus Fitzpatrick (7137) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.       

The Florida swing of the PGA Tour concludes its four-week run by moving to Northwest Tampa in Pearl Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of five Par 3s, four Par 5s, and just nine Par 4s. The course consists of 7340 yards with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 22 yards. The rough be as high as 3 3/4 inches. The TifEagle Bermuda greens average 5800 square feet and measure up to 12 1/2 inches on the stimpmeter.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Heavy winds that will gust up to 20 miles per hour are expected — with the worst of it beginning to come on Friday afternoon. Fleetwood is enticing because he tees off late on Thursday and then early on Friday — helping him avoid perhaps the worst of the weather in the first two days. Fleetwood was in 4th place going into Sunday of the PLAYERS Championship before a disappointing final round which led to him settling for 27th place. But there is still much for him to take from that effort after gaining his most strokes in the Approach on a PGA Tour event since the 2018 Honda Classic. He gained +5 strokes versus the field in Approach last week. Fleetwood has had several near-misses at major championships — but he has yet to win a PGA Tour event. The Englishman is well-versed in dealing with windy conditions. He ranks 22nd on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 17th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. That bodes well for him this week since the last six winners of this tournament finished the week in the top six in that metric. Six of the last eight winners here finished the week in the top seven in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He finished tied for 16th place in his debut at this tournament last year while gaining +3.9 strokes with his putter. Fleetwood is linked with Brian Harman in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Harman is simply not in good form right now. He has missed the cut in three of his last five events with his best showing since January 15th being last week when he finished tied for 44th place at The PLAYERS Championship. Harman’s ball striking is what is letting him down. He ranks 81st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and an even worse 138th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and this is the wrong course to be wild with one’s driver and irons, especially with the wind. Take Fleetwood (7015) versus Harman (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The Florida swing of the PGA Tour concludes its four-week run by moving to Northwest Tampa in Pearl Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of five Par 3s, four Par 5s, and just nine Par 4s. The course consists of 7340 yards with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 22 yards. The rough can be as high as 3 3/4 inches. The TifEagle Bermuda greens average 5800 square feet and measure up to 12 1/2 inches on the stimpmeter.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Nick Taylor who is listed at +6000 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Heavy winds that will gust up to 20 miles per hour are expected — with the worst of it beginning to come on Friday afternoon. Taylor tees off at 1 PM ET on Thursday which gets him an early tee time on Friday which will give him an edge by avoiding perhaps the worst of the weather in the first two days. He should be feisty this week after missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before missing the cut again at The PLAYERS Championship last week. Taylor did finish tied for 7th play at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i in January — and he finished in 2nd place at the WM Phoenix Open last month. Taylor is one of the better putters on the tour. He ranks a very solid 23rd on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Total — helped by his ranking 23rd this season in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He is a two-time winner on the tour who could benefit from the lighter field this week after a string of highly competitive fields. Taylor plays lots of events — and he is very familiar with this course having played it seven times in his career. He has made the cut here four times with two top-24 finishes. Taylor is linked with Tyler Duncan in Round One head-to-head props. Duncan followed up a 3rd place at the Honda Classic with a 54th place last week at The PLAYERS Championship — but he has missed the cut in nine of his 14 events for the 2022-23 season. Ball striking is critical at this event with the narrow fairways — but this is not his strength. Duncan ranks 146th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season — and he is 143rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Duncan plays this event for the fifth time in his career with 25th place being his best result — but he has missed the cut twice. Take Taylor (7135) versus Duncan (7136) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The so-called “fifth” major championship is a Par 72 event on a course consisting of 7275 yards. The average score last year was 72.619 per round. The challenges are numerous with 88 bunkers' water impacting all but one of the holes. This is a Pete Dye-designed course — and his tracks tend to twist and turn to privilege ball-shaping versus pure distance. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass oversewed with Poa trivialis. The smaller greens average 5500 square feet that can measure off to 13 inches on the stimpmeter.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Hovland has four top-20s in 2023 after coming off a good effort at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he finished tied for 10th place. He gained +6.5 shots Off-the-Tee and then another +3.7 shots in his Approach versus the field last week. In his last three tournaments, he has gained +5.3, +6.0, and +10.0 strokes from his Ball-Striking respectively. Hovland is 7th on the PHA Tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he finished last season 15th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. When Hovland gets going, he is as good ball0-strike as there is on the tour as he demonstrated last summer when he finished 4th at the British Open. Last year at this tournament when he finished tied for 9th, Hovland led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Total Driving while finishing second in Fairways Hit and Green-In-Regulation. The weakness in his game is around the green if he does not reach the putting surface in regulation — he ranks 169th this season in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. But that is not as big an issue on this course. In last year’s event, only four of the top-21 finishers gained more than 0.5 shots versus the field in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Hovland is linked with Jordan Spieth in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Spieth finished 4th last week at TPC Sawgrass for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Did he pull that off despite a third-round score of 74 — or is there always something holding Spieth back at this point in his career? After being on Spieth for a spell of tournaments two years ago, he frustrated me by too often muffing key shots or putts when in contention. He finished tied for 62nd last week in Greens-In-Regulation despite his prowess with his irons. It’s just always something. Spieth ranks 77th on the tour this season in Shots  Gained: Approach the Green. He ranks 88th in Bogey Avoidance this season — and TPC Sawgrass is a course that punishes mistakes given all the water and bunkers. Spieth finished 4th at this event in his debut back in 2014 — but he has not cracked the top 40 since while missing the cut in four of his seven career appearances here. Take Hovland (7021) versus Spieth (7022) on Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.