|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-30-23||Seahawks v. Cowboys -7||Top||35-41||Loss||-110||95 h 13 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Dallas -7
FREE TEASERS: I am doing every combination of teasers with the Jaguars, Cowboys and Dolphins this week getting them all below -3 using 6 and 6.5-point teasers.
The Dallas Cowboys are bullies. They beat up on bad teams and cannot seem to get over the hump against good teams. While the Seattle Seahawks are 6-5 this season and some would consider them a good team, I consider them a bad team in their current form and another team that the Cowboys are going to beat up on.
The Cowboys are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS this season with a ridiculous seven wins by 20 points or more. That includes 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season where they are scoring 41.0 points per game and allowing just 12.0 points per game, outscoring opponents by 29.0 points per game.
The Cowboys just blasted the Commanders 45-10 on Thanksgiving Night while the Seahawks were losing 31-13 at home to the 49ers despite getting a Pick 6 in that game for their lone touchdown. Their offense didn't score and has been broken the last two weeks, also managing just 16 points in a loss to the Rams. They have a recent common opponent in the Commanders. While the Cowboys won by 35, the Seahawks needed a last-second FG to beat Washington three weeks ago.
The Cowboys won't be taking the Seahawks lightly because they know there's a good chance that if they win this game and the Eagles lose to the 49ers this week, they'll be playing the Eagles for first place in the NFC East next week. The Seahawks have struggled when they have stepped up in class recently with a 37-3 loss at Baltimore and that 31-13 loss to San Francisco. Dallas is just a notch below those two teams, but it's close.
Geno Smith isn't healthy and is a below average QB as it is, and he and the Seahawks will get exposed again this week. Smith averages under 4 yards per attempt against man-to-man defense and over 8 yards per attempt against zone this season. Dallas runs as much man-to-man defense as any team in the NFL.
Dallas is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Dak Prescott is 30-11-1 ATS in his last 42 starts as a favorite of 6 points or more. The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a division game, so they don't let down in these spots. Seattle is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the second half of the season. Bet the Cowboys Thursday.
|11-30-23||Jazz v. Wolves UNDER 222||90-101||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Timberwolves UNDER 222
This matchup between Utah and Minnesota tonight will be played without the best offensive player for both teams. Utah leading scorer Lauri Markkanen (23.7 PPG) and Minnesota leading scorer Anthony Edwards (26.2 PPG) are both expected to miss this game.
Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is even when Edwards was healthy. They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating and play at a slower tempo. They rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating even with Edwards. Having the twin towers of Gobert and Towns plus a defensive-minded PG in Mike Conley Jr. make them a dead nuts UNDER team.
The Timberwolves have remarkably held four of their last five opponents to 103 points or fewer, which is a great feat in today's NBA. Now they face a Jazz team that has really been struggling offensively without Markkanen, scoring 105 points or fewer in four of their last five games.
The Jazz are 5-0 UNDER in their last five games overall. Minnesota beat Utah 123-95 for just 218 combined points in their first meeting this season back on November 4th. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-30-23||Pacers v. Heat OVER 237.5||Top||132-142||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Heat OVER 237.5
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 14-2 OVER in all games this season. They are scoring 127.6 points per game and allowing 124.7 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.
The Miami Heat just played another dead nuts over team in the Milwaukee Bucks last time out and the result was a 131-124 shootout loss and 255 combined points. It will be more of the same against the Indiana Pacers tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-30-23||Blazers +12 v. Cavs||103-95||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +12
The Portland Trail Blazers got two key guards back from injury in Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson. It's no surprise to me that they have been playing well since, and they have been an undervalued commodity in recent games due to their poor start to the season with all these injuries.
Indeed, the Blazers have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They beat Utah 121-105 as 3-point home dogs, only lost 102-108 at Milwaukee as 13-point dogs after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead, and won outright at Indiana 114-110 as 12-point dogs. Now they are once again catching too many points against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.
The Cavaliers are coming off a 23-point win over the Hawks which has them overvalued. They lost by 33 at home to Miami, were upset by 6 at home by the Lakers and only beat the Raptors by 3 at home in their previous three games. It's not like they are playing well enough right now to warrant being 12-point favorites here. Bet the Blazers Thursday.
|11-30-23||Texas Tech v. Butler -2.5||95-103||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -2.5
The Butler Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS this season despite facing a very tough schedule. Their two losses came against two of the best teams in the country in Michigan State and Florida Atlantic on the road. They only lost to FAU by 5 as 5.5-point dogs, and FAU has been blasting everyone else.
Butler handled Penn State 88-78 as a PK on a neutral and Boise State 70-56 as 1.5-point dogs on a neutral in the two games following those two losses to MSU and FAU. Now they get a Texas Tech team that looks down this season based on results.
Texas Tech is 5-1 SU but 2-4 ATS in its six games this season. The Red Raiders only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 9 as 24.5-point home favorites. They lost by 16 to Villanova on a neutral as 3.5-point dogs, and that's a Villanova team that has already been upset twice as double-digit home favorites this season. They only beat a bad Northern Iowa team by 2 as 7-point favorites on a neutral as well.
Texas Tech is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games vs. Big East opponents. Butler is 7-0 ATS in its last seven November home games. Bet Butler Thursday.
|11-29-23||Clippers -125 v. Kings||Top||131-117||Win||100||13 h 38 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Kings NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML -125
I had the Kings on the Money Line last night and was fortunate to cash that ticket. The Kings came back from 24 points down to the Warriors to win 124-123. They put everything they had into that comeback, and now they won't have anything left in the tank for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.
It is also a letdown spot for the Kings after finally beating their hated rivals in the Warriors after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them in seven games last season, and losing the first two meetings this season to the Warriors. They wanted that win more than anything, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Clippers tonight.
The Clippers will be extra motivated to bounce back from a bad loss to the Nuggets who didn't have Nikola Jokic. They simply thought they could show up and win that game. The Clippers had been playing well previously going 4-1 SU in their previous five games. They will be focused for this one, and they are healthy for pretty much the first time this season right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.
Plays against home underdogs (Sacramento) - off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 45-20 (69.2%) ATS since 1996. Plays on road favorites on the money line (LA Clippers) - off an upset loss a a home favorite against an opponent that is off a home win where they scored 110 points or more are 61-20 (75.3%, +31.4 Units) since 1996. Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Wednesday.
|11-29-23||Colorado v. Colorado State -2.5||83-88||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
15* Colorado/Colorado State Rivalry ANNIHILATOR on Colorado State -2.5
Colorado State is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and currently 27th in KenPom as one of the best mid-major teams in the country. All six wins this season have come by 8 points or more, with none being more impressive than their 69-48 win as 9-point dogs on a neutral to Creighton last time out.
Normally this would be a letdown spot for the Rams, but that's simply not the case with hated in-state rival Colorado coming to town. The Rams have lost three consecutive meetings with the Buffaloes including a blowout road loss last season. They want revenge, and they will get it tonight. Colorado State has played the much tougher schedule (129th) than Colorado (251st) as well.
Colorado is 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall with some concerning results. The Buffaloes only beat Richmond by 5 as 9-point favorites on a neutral, lost outright to Florida State by 6 as 6-point favorites, and failed to cover against a rebuilding Iona team in a 17-point home win as 19-point favorites. Their other three wins all came at home against bad teams in Towson, Grambling and Milwaukee. This will be their first true road game of the season.
Colorado is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 non-conference games. The Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after a win by 10 points or more. Colorado has been one of the worst road teams in the country for several years running. Bet Colorado State Wednesday.
|11-29-23||Bradley -3.5 v. Murray State||Top||72-79||Loss||-110||10 h 33 m||Show|
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -3.5
The Bradley Braves are 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS this season despite facing a tough schedule that ranks 149th in the country. They have beaten the likes of Utah State (61st in KenPom), Tulane (99th), Vermont (119th) and UAB (127th). All six wins have come against teams that rank in the Top 166.
Murray State is 2-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season despite facing the 295th-ranked schedule in the country. They lost to Western Kentucky by 5 as 1-point home favorites, UNC Wilmington as 5.5-point dogs on a neutral, by 10 to Appalachian State by 2.5-point dogs on a neutral and only beat Tennessee Tech by 6 as 12.5-point home favorites in their lone win against a Division 1 team.
Steve Prohm is one of my favorite head coaches to fade, while Brian Wardle is one of my favorite head coaches to back. Prohm is 0-6 ATS in home games following a non-conference game as the coach of Murray State.
Bradley is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite. The Braves are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a bad team that wins 20-40% of their games. This is an absolute mismatch and the Braves should be bigger favorites tonight. Bet Bradley Wednesday.
|11-29-23||Suns -2.5 v. Raptors||105-112||Loss||-115||10 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix Suns -2.5
The Phoenix Suns are rolling right now going 7-0 SU in their last seven games overall with all seven wins coming by 3 points or more. Devin Booker is playing at an MVP level, and there's a good chance they get Kevin Durant back from injury tonight.
The Suns come in on two days' rest and will be the fresher team, which is the biggest reason for this play. The Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 103-115 loss in Brooklyn last night. The Raptors will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days in their 5th different city. They will have nothing left in the tank for the Suns tonight. Bet the Suns Wednesday.
|11-29-23||Cal-Irvine +6 v. Duquesne||62-66||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on UC-Irvine +6
UC-Irvine is 6-1 this season and ranked 63rd in KenPom as one of the better mid-major programs in the country. The Anteaters have been very impressive during their current six-game winning streak where they have also gone 5-0 ATS.
They beat USC outright 70-60 as 12.5-point road dogs. They beat Pepperdine by 16 as 5.5-point favorites on a neutral. They beat Toledo by 6 as 1.5-point favorites on a neutral. And they backed it up with a 15-point win over Rice as 8-point favorites on a neutral. Now they are catching 6 points on the road against Duquesne when this line should be much closer to a PK.
Duquesne is 4-2 this season with a win over Cleveland State by 1 as 10-point home favorites, an outright home loss to Princeton as 5.5-point favorites, and a 10-point loss at Nebraska as 6-point dogs. Irvine has played the 68th-ranked schedule in the country while Duquesne has played the 207th.
Irvine is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 November games. Duquesne is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games after two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers. Irvine is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game. The Dukes are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. good shooting teams making 48% or better on the season. Bet UC-Irvine Wednesday.
|11-28-23||Warriors v. Kings -119||Top||123-124||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML -119
This is the ultimate revenge spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight. They were knocked out of the playoffs by the Warriors in seven games last season. They are already 0-2 against the Warriors this season, though their 1-point loss at Golden State on November 1st came without De'Aaron Fox. It's safe to say the Kings are going to be max motivated for revenge at home tonight, and I expect them to get the job done.
The Warriors are 2-7 SU in their last nine games overall. They do get Draymond Green back, but I don't think it's going to matter. The Kings will simply want this one more. The Warriors are 19-36 ATS in their last 55 road games dating back to last season. Golden State is 2-10 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. Bet the Kings on the Money Line Tuesday.
|11-28-23||Rockets +4.5 v. Mavs||115-121||Loss||-110||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5
The Houston Rockets are the most undervalued team in the NBA right now. They have gone 8-3 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Their only three losses came on the road by 6 at the Clippers, by 1 at the Lakers and by 5 at the Warriors. They have beaten the Nuggets twice, the Lakers and the Kings twice during this run.
The Rockets play team basketball without the superstar names. That's what makes them such an undervalued commodity. The Mavericks have the big names in Doncic and Irving, but not much help outside of them. And Doncic has a banged up thumb right now that he is expected to play through tonight.
The Mavericks are 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming over the lowly Wizards and the Lakers by 3 who were tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. They lost by 21 at the Pelicans, by 7 at the Bucks, by 16 at home against the Kings and by 19 at the Clippers. They aren't playing well at all right now and don't warrant being 4.5-point favorites here.
Dallas is 24-40 ATS in its last 64 games as a favorite. Bet the Rockets Tuesday.
|11-28-23||Thunder +3.5 v. Wolves||103-106||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder want revenge from a 120-95 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the play-in round of the playoffs last year that ended their season. This is their first shot at revenge this season, and I expect them to make the most of it tonight.
The Thunder are fully healthy right now and are a dangerous team when that's the case. They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only loss coming by 4 points to the Philadelphia 76ers, who are one of the best teams in the NBA this season. Five of their six wins came by double-digits while the other was a 7-point win at Golden State.
The spot really favors the Thunder not only because of the revenge factor, but also because they are the more rested team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight. The Thunder are 12-4 ATS in all games this season and have been covering machines over the last three seasons. Oklahoma City is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better. Bet the Thunder Tuesday.
|11-28-23||Bulls +14 v. Celtics||Top||97-124||Loss||-110||9 h 0 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +14
The Boston Celtics are getting too much respect from the books tonight as massive 14-point favorites over the Chicago Bulls. That's especially the case considering the Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight with starting PG Jrue Holiday questionable as well.
The Bulls are undervalued right now after a 5-13 SU & 5-12-1 ATS start this season and this is a good 'buy low' spot on them. They always seem to play the Celtics tough, and there's no doubt they will be up for this game tonight.
Indeed, the Bulls are 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Celtics with five outright wins as underdogs. Three of their four losses straight up have come by 8 points or less. They will stay within this inflated number again and keep their series dominance going in this head-to-head matchup. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.
|11-28-23||Miami-FL +7.5 v. Kentucky||Top||73-95||Loss||-115||8 h 27 m||Show|
20* Miami/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +7.5
The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team. All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 18.0 points, Norchad Omier averaging 15.8 points and a team-high 9.2 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 16.0 points and 4.0 assists.
Bensley Joseph (11.6 PPG, 4.2 APG, 2.4 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and is a swiss army knife, doing a little bit of everything for this team. Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 16.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists. This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.
Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and then easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites. They had a letdown against FIU in a non-cover in a 86-80 win, likely looking ahead to the Bahamas Championship Tournament. But they got back to their covering ways, beating Georgia 79-67 as 8-point favorites and topping Kansas State 91-83 as 3-point favorites. Now I expect the Hurricanes to give Kentucky a run for its money tonight.
Kentucky lost 89-84 to Kansas as 7-point underdogs on a neutral in its lone game against a decent opponent this season. They failed to cover as massive home favorites against Texas A&M Community College, Stonehill and St. Joseph's while also beating up on bad New Mexico State and Marshall teams. They needed OT to beat St. Joe's as a 15-point home favorite just two games ago. They are missing some key 7-footers inside right now and are all guard-oriented, which makes this a great matchup for Miami, which has some of the best guards in the country plus Omier inside.
Kentucky is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game. Miami is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog or PK. The Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better. The Hurricanes are a veteran team that relishes these challenges on the road in hostile environments. Bet Miami Tuesday.
|11-27-23||Pelicans v. Jazz UNDER 231||112-114||Win||100||11 h 20 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Pelicans/Jazz UNDER 231
Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. The Pelicans and Jazz will be meeting in Utah for the 2nd time in 3 days. The Jazz won 105-100 for just 205 combined points in that first meeting with a total set of 227. Now the total is set at 231 and the books are making a mistake not listing this total much lower tonight.
While the Pelicans are without CJ McCollum, the Jazz could be without both Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen again tonight after they both sat out their last game. Those are their two best offensive weapons, and even if they are without one it will hamper them a lot offensively.
New Orleans is 46-25 UNDER in its last 71 games vs. teams with a losing record, including 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games vs. terrible teams that are outscored by 6-plus points per game. Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (New Orleans) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51-60%) playing a losing team are 41-14 (74.5%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-27-23||Bears +3.5 v. Vikings||Top||12-10||Win||100||119 h 5 m||Show|
20* Bears/Vikings ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +3.5
The Chicago Bears just got Justin Fields back last week and he makes all the difference for them. They blew a double-digit lead in the final four minutes to the Lions in a 26-31 defeat as 8-point underdogs on the road. The fact that they took the Lions to the wire says all you need to know about this team's potential.
Fields went 16-of-23 passing for 169 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 104 yards on 18 attempts. He is so dynamic with his ability to run, and he has formed a great chemistry with DJ Moore on the outside. The Bears will have no problem getting back up off the mat from that tough loss to the Lions considering this is a Monday Night Football game on National TV against another division opponnent in the Bears.
But the biggest reason the Bears are undervalued right now is their improvement on defense over the last several weeks. They have held four of their last seven opponents to 20 points or fewer. They are allowing just 276.5 yards per game in their last six games, which would rate as one of the top defenses in the entire NFL.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Vikings. They just had their 5-game winning streak come to an end with a 1-point loss at Denver. It's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice because they controlled the game most the way but blew it late. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, so you are definitely paying a tax on them now.
The Bears want revenge from a 19-13 home loss to the Vikings on October 15th in their first meeting this season. Fields got injured in that game which made all the difference. The Bears held the Vikings to just 220 total yards and they still nearly pulled off the upset even with Tyson Bageant having to come in and turning it over three times.
The Bears are probably the healthiest team in the NFL right now with only four players on the injury report. I always look to back healthy teams late in the season and fade teams with a ton of injuries. It's rare for a team to be as healthy as the Bears are this late in the year. Bet the Bears Monday.
|11-27-23||Blazers v. Pacers OVER 241||Top||114-110||Loss||-110||19 h 51 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Pacers OVER 241
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 14-1 OVER in their 15 games this season. They are scoring 128.8 points per game and allowing 125.5 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.
The Blazers are not an over team, but the Pacers force teams to play at their pace, especially at home. Plus the Blazers just got both Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson back from injury and were missing those two key guards for a big chunk of this season. They now have the guards to get up and down with the Pacers. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|11-27-23||Lakers v. 76ers UNDER 231.5||94-138||Loss||-110||9 h 20 m||Show|
15* Lakers/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 231.5
The Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers are two of the rare teams in the NBA today that still prefer to run offense through their centers in Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis. As a result, they both play at slower tempos than average and I think this is a great UNDER bet in a game involving two of the best centers in the game.
These are also two of the better defensive teams in the NBA with the Lakers ranking 9th and the 76ers 13th in defensive rating. The Lakers are just 24th in offensive rating and dealing with a bunch of injuries. LeBron James is questionable, Gabe Vincent is out, Cam Reddish is questionable and Rui Hachimura is out.
Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Philadelphia) - off a road win, a good team (60-75%) playing a team with a winning record are 75-35 (68.2%) since 1996. The Lakers and 76ers have combined for 227 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-27-23||Oakland +15.5 v. Xavier||78-76||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland +15.5
What more does Oakland have to do to get some respect from the books? Oakland is 3-3 SU & 6-0 ATS this season against a brutal schedule being listed as underdogs in all six games. They upset Loyola-Marymount 74-69 as 6-point dogs, upset Marshall 78-71 as 2.5-point dogs and crushed Bowling Green 81-62 as 2.5-point favorites.
But more impressive than the wins are actually the three losses. Oakland only lost 79-73 at Ohio State as 19.5-point underdogs, lost 53-64 as 24-point dogs at Illinois and lost 85-77 as 9-point dogs on a neutral to Drake. If they can hang with those three teams, they can certainly hang with Xavier.
Xavier already has two losses this season to Purdue by 12 and to Washington by 3. Three of the four wins were against bottom feeders in Robert Morris (by 4), Jacksonville and Bryant. And now Xavier has a massive game with No. 6 ranked Houston on deck and could easily be looking ahead to that game and overlooking Oakland. Bet Oakland Monday.
|11-26-23||Ravens -4 v. Chargers||Top||20-10||Win||100||168 h 45 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore -4
The Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the NFL if it's not the San Francisco 49ers. Both have the most elite numbers in the NFL right now. The Ravens' last seven losses with Lamar Jackson at QB they had a 4th quarter lead and were 75% or better to win the game. They could be on a crazy unbeaten streak if not for some bad variance late in games.
The down to down success is the most predictable, and the Ravens are thriving this season. They average 27.6 points per game, 366.5 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play while allowing just 16.1 points per game, 273.5 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. They are outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game and outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play this season.
The Chargers have a decent offense with Justin Herbert, but he is missing several key weapons and drops have been an issue for his receivers. Herbert is forced every week to try and win shootouts because the defense just cannot get stops. The Chargers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing 23.8 points per game, 393.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They rank 31st in the NFL in total defense and 29th in yards per play allowed.
We've seen what the Chargers are defensively when they face a legit offense, like two weeks ago when they allowed 41 points and 533 total yards to the Lions. The Ravens beat the Lions 38-6 earlier this season. Even last week the Chargers allowed the Packers to have a break out offensive performance with 397 total yards against them. The Packers were a previously dead offense but got right against the Chargers.
The Ravens can name their number against this pitiful Chargers defense. They are even worse off now after losing arguably their most important defensive player in Joey Bosa to a foot injury against the Packers. He is doubtful to play this week. The Ravens have scored at least 31 points in five consecutive games now, and if they get to 31 here they are going to cover this 4-point spread. They are going to get to 31 if not more.
The Chargers have zero home-field advantage and there will likely be more Ravens fans attending this game than Chargers fans. The Ravens also have the rest advantage after playing the Bengals on Thursday, so they have three extra days to rest and prepare for the Chargers. John Harbaugh is 9-2 ATS in road games vs. a marginal losing team that wins 40-49% of their games as the coach of Baltimore. Bet the Ravens Sunday night.
|11-26-23||Wolves v. Grizzlies UNDER 218.5||119-97||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 218.5
Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies rank in the bottom half of the league in pace. The Grizzlies rank 28th in offensive rating while the Timberwolves rank 3rd in defensive rating. The Grizzlies always get after it defensively, but with all their injuries right now points have been very hard to come by for them.
The Grizzlies were held to 91 points by the Rockets and 89 points by the Suns in their last two games. I think the Timberwolves will hold them below 100 today, which will aid us in cashing this UNDER 218.5 ticket.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last five meetings with 220 or fewer combined points in five of those six, and 217 or fewer in three of the last four. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|11-26-23||Wolves -6.5 v. Grizzlies||119-97||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5
The Memphis Grizzlies rank 28th in offensive rating while the Minnesota Timberwolves rank 3rd in defensive rating. With all the injuries the Grizzlies are dealing with right now, points have been very hard to come by for them. The Grizzlies were held to 100 points by the Celtics, 91 points by the Rockets and 89 points by the Suns in their last three games to fall to 3-12 SU & 5-10 ATS this season.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are 11-4 SU & 8-5-2 ATS this season and have been one of the more undervalued teams in the NBA. But they are coming off a bad home loss to the Kings, which will have them refocused and not taking the Grizzlies lightly today.
Memphis is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 games as an underdog. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.
|11-26-23||Blazers +13 v. Bucks||Top||102-108||Win||100||6 h 44 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +13
Giannis, Brook Lopez and Damian Lillard combined for 101 points last game and the Bucks still were life and death with one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Washington Wizards in a 131-128 win as 13.5-point home favorites. They lost Kris Middleton to an Achilles injury in that game and he won't play today. They will be life and death with the Blazers again today because they just don't have much help outside of those Big 3.
The Blazers are coming off a 121-105 upset win over the Jazz as 3-point home underdogs. They are getting healthier and playing better. Now they are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off. I expect the Blazers to give a big effort today in this sleepy afternoon game for the Bucks, who won't have their usual home-court advantage due to this early start time.
Plays against favorites (Milwaukee) - after two straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more against an opponent that scored 120 points or more last game are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Blazers Sunday.
|11-26-23||Monmouth +6 v. Pennsylvania||Top||61-76||Loss||-110||4 h 54 m||Show|
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Monmouth +6
Monmouth has been undervalued this season at 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS and the Hawks continue to be undervalued here as 6-point underdogs to the Penn Quakers. Monmouth won outright as a 14.5-point dog at West Virginia earlier this season.
These teams have two common opponents the last two days, and it's easy to see Monmouth is the better team when looking at this results. Monmouth beat Belmont 93-84 and beat Lafayette 63-53. Penn only beat Lafayette 74-72 and lost outright to Belmont 84-79.
But the kicker here is that Penn went to OT against Belmont yesterday and will be the more tired team as a result. Their three best players played 43, 36 and 35 minutes in that OT loss and won't have much left in the tank for Monmouth, which was able to rest its starters late yesterday due to the blowout nature of their game against Lafayette. Nobody played more than 29 minutes for them yesterday.
Monmouth is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after allowing 60 points or less. Penn is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 home games after a loss by 6 points or less. Plays on road teams (Monmouth) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in non-conference games between two teams from mid-major conferences are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Monmouth Sunday.
|11-26-23||Jaguars v. Texans OVER 45.5||Top||24-21||Loss||-110||161 h 55 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Texans OVER 45.5
The Houston Texans are a dead nuts OVER team. CJ Stroud is one of the best rookie QB's we've ever seen and he's living up to it week after week. Let's look at their last three weeks. They scored 39 points and had 496 total yards against the Bucs, scored 30 points and had 544 total yards against the Bengals and then they had 419 total yards against the Cardinals last week and would have scored more if not for 3 INT from Stroud inside the Arizona 25-yard line.
But because that game stayed under the total against the Cardinals when it should have gone way over after 31 combined points at halftime, we are getting great value with the OVER this week against the Jaguars. Not one of those passes by Stroud that were intercepted were bad throws, they were mostly just bad breaks off receivers' hands. He had only thrown 2 INT all season up to that point. RB Devin Singletary has rushed for over 100 yards in consecutive games for the first time in his career. This Houston offense is humming.
The Jaguars just put together their best offensive performance of the season last week against a very good Tennessee defense. They had 34 points and 389 total yards as Trevor Lawrence totaled four touchdowns passing and rushing. The Jaguars are primed for one of their best offensive outputs of the season against a Houston defense that gave up 37 points to a bad Bucs offense and 27 points to the Bengals. The Texans are pretty banged up defensively right now.
In their first meeting this season. Houston beat Jacksonville 37-17 for 54 combined points that easily topped this 45.5-point total. The Texans had 366 total yards and took their foot off the gas in the 2H with it wrapped up. The Jaguars had 404 total yards and deserved to score more than they did. They will have similar success moving the football in the rematch.
Doug Pederson is 9-1 OVER in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as a head coach. I love the OVER in this matchup of two teams that are hitting their stride on offense right now. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-26-23||Bucs v. Colts -120||Top||20-27||Win||100||161 h 39 m||Show|
25* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -120
I love the spot for the Indianapolis Colts. They are coming off their bye week following a win over the Patriots in Germany that got them to 5-5 on the season and very much in the playoff hunt. They will come out of the bye rested, ready to go and highly motivated to make the playoffs.
Bye weeks are even more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Shane Steichen. The players on this team love this guy because he is a great offensive mind, and I expect the Colts to have plenty of new wrinkles to unleash on the Tampa Bay Bucs this week.
The Bucs had their bye back on October 8th and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week. They are starting to run out of gas and the injuries are starting to pile up. They lost 27-14 at San Francisco last week and now have a lot of traveling to do prior to facing the Colts. They travel from San Francisco back to Tampa and then up to Indianapolis. They won't be nearly as prepared as the Colts for this one.
The injuries are really piling up on defense for the Bucs. They lost three starters that exited the game against the 49ers and didn't return last week. That includes LB Lavonte David, CB Jamel Dean and CB Carlton Davis III. The Colts should feast on this short-handed defense similar to what CJ Stroud and the Texans did to them and Brock Purdy did to them. Purdy went 21-of-25 passing for 305 yards while Stroud went 30-of-42 passing for 443 yards on the Bucs.
The Colts have gotten healthier on defense and are playing better holding their last two opponents to an average 9.5 points per game. They should be even healthier coming out of the bye. Now they get to face one of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Bucs, who are scoring 19.2 points per game, averaging 304.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. The Bucs rank 23rd in scoring, 22nd in total offense and 22nd in yards per play. They allow 6.0 yards per play on defense, so they are getting outgained by 0.9 yards per play and legitimately one of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Colts are undervalued right now because nobody believes they deserve to be 5-5 and .500 on the season. But the numbers clearly tell a different story. The Colts average 5.4 yards per play on offense and 5.4 yards per play on defense, breaking dead even in yards per play margin. YPP is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is, and the Colts have been 0.9 YPP better than the Bucs this season. We're getting the better team in the much better stop off the bye as basically a PK at home. Sign me up. Bet the Colts on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-25-23||Iowa State +10 v. Kansas State||42-35||Win||100||92 h 31 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa State +10
As of this writing, Kansas State is still alive for a Big 12 Championship. But by the time this game kicks off at 8:00 EST Saturday night, the Wildcats will realize they have been eliminated. They are tied with Oklahoma State and Oklahoma for 2nd place in the Big 12. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma both hold tiebreakers over Kansas State.
Oklahoma hosts TCU on Friday and is a double-digit favorite. Oklahoma State hosts BYU earlier Saturday afternoon and is a 17-point favorite. Both of those teams aren't going to lose, which is what it would take for Kansas State to still be alive by the time this game kicks off. I don't think we get a fully focused Kansas State team as a result, and I think they'll let Iowa State hang around.
The Cyclones are good enough to hang around, anyway. They are 6-5 this season with four of their five losses coming by 10 points or less. It should be four one-score losses but they had a PAT blocked and returned for 2 by Texas last week that turned a 7-point loss into a 10-point loss. I'm still bitter about it because I had Iowa State and they should have covered.
But that loss to Texas provides us extra line value on the Cyclones this week. They are a double-digit dog for only the 2nd time all season with the other coming at Oklahoma. I like how this team is playing down the stretch going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last four games overall with all four wins coming by double-digits, and both losses going down to the wire to Kansas and Texas.
Kansas State was lucky to beat Kansas and their 3rd-string QB last week. They were outgained 396 to 356 by the Jayhawks, or by 40 yards. They gave up 234 rushing yards to Kansas and Iowa State will have success on the ground here, which will open up things for QB Rocco Becht.
The Cyclones want revenge from a 10-9 home loss to Kansas State last year. The Wildcats got one big play and that was it. Kansas State cannot seem to get margin on Iowa State. In fact, the Wildcats haven't won any of their last nine meetings with the Cyclones by more than 10 points. That makes for a 9-0 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 10-point spread. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|11-25-23||Clemson v. South Carolina +7||Top||16-7||Loss||-105||91 h 56 m||Show|
20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina +7
The South Carolina Gamecocks played the toughest schedule in the entire country through their first eight games and the result was a 2-6 start. They have finally gotten a break in the schedule and have made the most of it, winning their last three games to get within one win of bowl eligibility. Now they'll be highly motivated to finish the job here at home against Clemson and pull off the upset to get that coveted 6th victory.
Clemson has also handled its business here down the stretch going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. But all three of those games were at home. Now the Tigers have to hit the road where they have struggled this season. Clemson is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games with their lone win coming at Syracuse. They lost 28-7 to Duke, 28-20 to Miami and 24-17 at NC State in their other three road games.
South Carolina has played its best football at home. All five of their wins have come at home as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at Williams-Brice Stadium. Their lone loss came by 2 points to Florida. I fully expect if they lose this game it will not be by more than one score, so there's value with the Gamecocks catching more than a touchdown.
South Carolina pulled the 31-30 upset as 14-point road dogs at Clemson last season. Spencer Rattler threw for 360 yards in the win and will have another big game here. Clemson is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 7 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games. Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (South Carolina) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet South Carolina Saturday.
|11-25-23||Ohio State v. Santa Clara +7.5||86-56||Loss||-110||8 h 31 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Santa Clara +7.5
Santa Clara is absolutely legit this season. The Broncos are off to a 6-0 start this season with two upset wins over Pac-12 teams. They won 89-77 at Stanford as 7.5-point dogs and upset Oregon 88-82 as 5.5-point dogs on a neutral yesterday. I fully expect them to give Ohio State a run for their money tonight.
Ohio State has been very disappointing thus far. The Buckeyes are 4-1 SU but 1-3-1 ATS this season. They only beat Oakland by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites, lost to Texas A&M by 7 as 1.5-point home favorites, pushed in a 24-point win over Merrimack as 24-point favorites and failed to cover in a 17-point win over Western Michigan as 21.5-point home favorites. That's why their upset win over Alabama as 6.5-point dogs yesterday came out of nowhere. But now the Buckeyes are getting too much respect for that win, and this is now a letdown spot for them. Bet Santa Clara Saturday.
|11-25-23||Illinois-Chicago -1 v. George Washington||89-79||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Illinois-Chicago -1
Illinois-Chicago has been very impressive this season. The Flames are 4-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season. They only lost by 11 at Cincinnati as 15-point dogs, upset Loyola-Chicago 72-67 as 11.5-point road dogs and crushed Middle Tennessee 70-40 as 3.5-point dogs yesterday. They will still be fresh for this game today which gives them a big advantage over George Washington.
The Revolutionaries will not be fresh for this one. They just went to double-OT to beat Ohio 99-94 yesterday. Three starters played at least 40 minutes for George Washington yesterday. They won't have much left in the tank for the Flames tonight. Bet Illinois-Chicago Saturday.
|11-25-23||Heat v. Nets -3.5||Top||97-112||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets -3.5
I love the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight. They will be highly motivated for a victory coming off three consecutive losses. They are also motivated because one of those losses came 122-115 at Miami on November 14th.
The Nets also have a big rest advantage over the Heat tonight. The Nets come in on two days' rest and will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days. Meanwhile, the Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 98-100 loss at New York last night. This will also be the 9th game in 15 days for the Heat, which is about as tough as it gets in the NBA. Eight of those nine games were on the road so there has been a ton of travel involved.
Jimmy Butler played 36 minutes, Bam Adebaoy 34, Josh Richardson 34 and Kyle Lowry 33 last night. The Heat are already short-handed without Tyler Herro and likely without Duncan Robinson again tonight. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them sit Butler and/or Adebayo tonight given the tough rest spot.
Brooklyn is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games when revenging a road loss. Miami is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Nets Saturday.
|11-25-23||Washington State +16.5 v. Washington||Top||21-24||Win||100||87 h 26 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington State +16.5
The whole world bet against Washington last week and lost with Oregon State. Now is the time to fade Washington after such a big win over the Beavers when everyone was picking against them. This is a flat spot for them off the Oregon State win and with Oregon on deck in the Pac-12 Championship since they already clinched.
At the very least, it's going to be tough for Washington to get margin and pull away from Washington State enough to cover this lofty 16.5-point spread. The Huskies haven't been getting margin on anyone of late. In fact, each of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or fewer. That includes games against Stanford (42-33) and Arizona State (15-7), two of the worst teams in the Pac-12.
This is the National Championship Game for Washington State. The Cougars will put everything into winning this game against their hated rivals. They come in with a ton of confidence after blasting Colorado 56-14 on Friday night last week, so they get an extra day to rest and prepare for this one.
Getting margin on the Cougars has been very difficult for their opponents. Despite their 5-6 record, the Cougars only have one loss by more than 14 points this season. They gave Oregon all they wanted in a 24-38 road loss as 19.5-point road underdogs, proving they can play with anyone as Oregon is looked at as the best team in the Pac-12. They know they can play with Washington, too.
The Cougars will never be out of this game with an offense that puts up 32.6 points per game, 6.0 yards per play and 338 passing yards per game and 8.1 per attempt. Washington has allowed over 300 passing yards on three occasions this season and allows 260 passing yards per game. They struggle to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Washington State QB Cam Ward will keep his team in this game for four quarters. He is completing 66.7% of his passes for 3,415 yards with a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for eight scores on the ground. Bet Washington State Saturday.
|11-25-23||Georgia State v. Old Dominion -2.5||24-25||Loss||-110||85 h 26 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Old Dominion -2.5
Old Dominion has battled to get to 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility. They just went on the road and upset Georgia Southern 20-17 as 5-point dogs last week. Now they are back home here with a chance to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility.
While the Monarchs will be max motivated to get this win and a bowl, Georgia State has questionable motivation at best. The Panthers had a promising start to the season at 6-1, but they have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS since and were non-competitive in all four games. They lost by 17 at Georgia Southern, by 28 at home to James Madison, by 28 at home to Appalachian State and by 42 at LSU. I think these players have quit on head coach Shawn Elliott. I don't think they show up at all here Saturday.
Old Dominion has played some of the best teams in the Sun Belt down to the wire. They only lost 30-27 at James Madison as 20-point dogs and upset Appalachian State 28-21 as 6-point home dogs. Appalachian State just beat James Madison last week. They can play with anyone in this conference, and they can certainly beat a middle-of-the-pack team here in Georgia State.
Georgia State needs to be able to run the football to be successful because they are a suspect passing team. Well, despite playing a brutal schedule, Old Dominion only allows 3.8 yards per carry this season. They are holding opponents to 0.7 per carry below their season averages. Georgia State has by far the worst defense in this matchup. They allow 6.5 yards per play on the season while Old Dominion only allows 5.5 yards per play. Georgia State is only slightly better than ODU on offense. The Monarchs should be favored by more because they are the better team, they're at home and they're the much more motivated team. Bet Old Dominion Saturday.
|11-25-23||Miami-OH v. Ball State +6.5||Top||17-15||Win||100||83 h 26 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State +6.5
The Ball State Cardinals have been grossly undervalued for weeks. They continue to play with pride despite being eliminated from bowl contention. They are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 7 to Toledo as 17.5-point dogs and by 3 to Bowling Green as 4.5-point dogs. They also upset Central Michigan 24-17 as 5.5-point dogs, upset Northern Illinois 20-17 as 9-point dogs and crushed Kent State 34-3 as 10-point favorites.
Now it's revenge time for the Cardinals. They were 5-6 last year and playing Miami Ohio with both at 5-6 and trying to get bowl eligible in the season finale. They blew a 14-3 halftime lead and lost 18-17 to the Redhawks last year. They have not forgotten, and they will get their revenge here with an outright victory, but we'll take the points for some insurance.
Miami Ohio is going to be flat as a pancake in this one. They already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game against Toledo. They could care less about winning this game. The priority is to stay healthy and fresh for that game against Toledo next week, not to beat Ball State.
Miami Ohio has been fortunate in close games and has taken advantage of a weak schedule. They have played the 129th-ranked schedule in the country while Ball State has played the 108th. Their offense makes it hard for them to get margin. They average 345 yards per game against teams that average allowing 379 yards per game, being held to 34 yards per game less than their season average. Ball State has a very good defense that allows 326 yards per game and 5.3 per play and will hold Miami Ohio in check again.
Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Ball State) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent off two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Ball State) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Ball State Saturday.
|11-24-23||Spurs v. Warriors OVER 234.5||Top||112-118||Loss||-110||11 h 42 m||Show|
20* Spurs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5
The Golden State Warriors are an OVER team when Draymond Green is out of the lineup. They miss his defense. They have gone 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall without Green and tonight will be the 5th game of his 5-game suspension. They have gone for 237, 253, 237 and 238 combined points in their last four games.
The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy. They are at least respectable on offense, but they are terrible on defense either way. The Spurs rank 4th in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency.
The last two meetings between the Spurs and Warriors have gone OVER the total with 245 and 257 combined points. Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 200 or higher (Golden State) - after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a losing team are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-24-23||Pistons v. Pacers OVER 247.5||Top||113-136||Win||100||28 h 20 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Pacers OVER 247.5
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 13-1 OVER in their 14 games this season. They are scoring 128.3 points per game and allowing 126.4 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.
The Pistons don't mind getting up and down either as they rank 11th in pace. They play little defense ranking 21st in defensive efficiency. This one has the makings of a shootout. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-24-23||Nuggets v. Rockets +3||86-105||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets +3
The Houston Rockets are the most underrated team in the NBA right now. They are 7-3 SU & a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The three losses all went to the wire and were all on the road losing by 6 at the Clippers, by 1 at the Lakers and by 5 at the Warriors. They are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.
The Rockets are back home where they just crushed Memphis by 20. They will be highly motivated to beat the defending champion Nuggets tonight. The Nuggets just aren't the same without Jamal Murray and have struggled without him in recent seasons. The Nuggets are 3-4 SU but 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall without Murray with the three wins all coming by 4 points or fewer.
Denver is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. Houston is 10-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. I fully expect Houston to win this game outright. Bet the Rockets Friday.
|11-24-23||Texas Tech +13.5 v. Texas||Top||7-57||Loss||-110||96 h 22 m||Show|
20* Texas Tech/Texas Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +13.5
Texas has all the pressure on them right now. They are trying to win out to make the college football playoff. They haven't contender for a national championship for a long time, so there is a ton of pressure on them right now. They are handling it will so far, but they have also been very fortunate in close games here of late.
Indeed, the Longhorns have seen five of their last six games decided by 10 points or fewer. The lone exception was their win over BYU, which is probably the worst team in the Big 12. They only beat Houston by 7, K-State by 3, TCU by 3 and Iowa State by 10 while losing by 4 to Oklahoma. It should be five one-score games in their last six considering Iowa State had a PAT blocked and returned for 2 points by Texas, turning a 7-point game into a 10-point game and costing Cyclones backers the cover.
Texas just lost star RB Jonathan Brooks to a season-ending injury two weeks ago against TCU. He has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.1 per carry, while also catching 25 balls for 286 yards and a score. Backup CJ Baxter averages just 4.7 per carry and is a big downgrade. Plus, leading receiver Xavier Worthy got injured in the win over Iowa State last week and was removed from the game. He is very questionable to play this week. That would be a big blow considering Worthy leads the team with 63 receptions, 834 yards and 4 TD.
Texas Tech has been a dangerous team with a healthy Behren Morton at QB. He is completing 63.3% of his passes for 1,410 yards with a 12-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for three scores. Well, he has been healthy here down the stretch and it has led to a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS run with wins over TCU, Kansas and UCF. They have now clinched a bowl at 6-5 and have no pressure on them, so they will be pulling out all the stops to try and knock off Texas.
Last year, Texas Tech beat Texas 37-34 as 7-point home dogs, and now they are catching 13.5 points in the rematch on the road. There was nothing fluky about that win as Texas Tech racked up 479 total yards and outgained Texas by 53 yards in that contest. I like this Texas Tech defense, which allows 5.4 yards per play this season. To compare, Texas allows 5.2 yards per play, so they have only been slightly better.
Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 475 or more yards last game. Texas is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 home games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games. The Longhorns may get lucky and win another close game, but they aren't going to win by two-plus touchdowns to beat us. Bet Texas Tech Friday.
|11-24-23||Heat v. Knicks -5.5||98-100||Loss||-105||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* Heat/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York -5.5
I love the spot for the New York Knicks tonight. They are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off following a road loss at Minnesota which was their 5th consecutive road game. They needed the rest, and they will far back here on Black Friday with a blowout win over the Miami Heat.
The Heat are getting a lot of respect now after winning nine of their last 10 against a very soft schedule. They are coming off a blowout win at Cleveland, but the Cavaliers were on the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the 76ers in OT on the road the night before.
The Heat have two key starters questionable to play tonight in Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson and may be short-handed. They already lack depth as it is without Tyler Herro. Meanwhile, the Knicks are fully healthy.
New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 100 points or less last game. Miami is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 105 points or less in two consecutive games. Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings with four of those five wins coming by 6 points or more. Bet the Knicks Friday.
|11-24-23||Alabama -6 v. Ohio State||Top||81-92||Loss||-110||7 h 50 m||Show|
20* Alabama/Ohio State Emerald Coast Classic No-Brainer on Alabama -6
Alabama is absolutely loaded this season. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while scoring at least 98 points in every game thus far. They beat Morehead State 105-73 as 22-point favorites, topped a very good Indiana State team 102-80 as 18-point home favorites,crushed South Alabama 102-46 as 20.5-point favorites and covered in a 98-67 win over Mercer as 30.5-point favorites. They have covered their first four spreads by a combined 50 points and remain undervalued here.
Ohio State has been very disappointing thus far and the results lead me to believe they cannot hang with a team the caliber of Alabama. The Buckeyes are 3-1 SU but 0-3-1 ATS this season. They only beat Oakland by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites, lost to Texas A&M by 7 as 1.5-point home favorites, pushed in a 24-point win over Merrimack as 24-point favorites and failed to cover in a 17-point win over Western Michigan as 21.5-point home favorites.
Ohio State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite. Alabama is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 November games. The Crimson Tide are 23-13 ATS in their last 36 games as favorites. Alabama is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game. Nate Oats is 12-2 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 to 12 points as the coach of the Crimson Tide. Bet Alabama Friday.
|11-24-23||Texas Tech v. Michigan -2||73-57||Loss||-110||6 h 56 m||Show|
15* Texas Tech/Michigan ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -2
The Michigan Wolverines have impressed me this season. They have opened 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS with wins over St. John's on the road and Stanford on a neutral yesterday. They also took a very good Memphis team to the wire in a 4-point loss prior to beating Stanford.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are clearly down a couple notches this season. They are 4-1 SU but 1-4 ATS with some concerning results. They only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 9 as 24.5-point home favorites. They lost by 16 to Villanova as 3.5-point dogs. They only beat Northern Iowa by 2 as 7-point favorites yesterday. Michigan needs to be favored by more against this squad.
Michigan is 55-33 ATS in its last 88 games as a neutral court favorite or PK. Texas Tech is 46-70 ATS in its last 116 neutral court games. The Red Raiders are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4-plus boards per game. Bet Michigan Friday.
|11-24-23||Suns -7.5 v. Grizzlies||110-89||Win||100||6 h 47 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Phoenix Suns -7.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are an absolute mess right now with all their injuries. They are 3-11 SU & 5-9 ATS this season. They are without Morant, Smart, Tillman, Kennard, Adams, Clarke, LaRavia and could be without Bane tonight.
The Phoenix Suns are getting healthier and forming some chemistry right now. They are 5-0 in their last five games overall, and I expect them to handle the short-handed Grizzlies tonight.
Memphis is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games as an underdog. Bet the Suns Friday.
|11-24-23||UTSA +3.5 v. Tulane||16-29||Loss||-110||92 h 8 m||Show|
15* UTSA/Tulane AAC ANNIHILATOR on UTSA +3.5
The UTSA Roadrunners won Conference USA each of the last two seasons. Now they are trying to show that they are the best team in their new conference in the American Athletic. I think they are the best team outside SMU, and they prove it here this week against Tulane.
UTSA has been hitting on all cylinders since getting a healthy Frank Harris back at QB. He has an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio since Week 9 and he means everything to this team. The Roadrunners are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in AAC play. They are scoring 41.0 points per game, averaging 464.6 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play, while allowing 22.1 points per game, 364.3 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.
Tulane is also 7-0 but 2-5 ATS and has been fortunate to win some of these close games against bad teams. Tulane is averaging 27.4 points per game, 403.3 yards per game and 6.2 per play in conference play while allowing 20.0 points per game, 342.6 yards per game and 5.5 per play. UTSA has the better numbers, and that's especially the case when you compare common opponents.
UTSA is 5-0 against common opponents of Tulane. They are scoring 37.8 points per game and allowing 20.0 points per game in those five games. Tulane is scoring 27.4 points per game and allowing 19.4 points per game against those same five opponents. So it's clear these defenses are pretty even, but UTSA has far and away the better offense.
Tulane only won 24-22 as a 24-point home favorite over Tulsa, 13-10 as a 17-point road favorite at ECU, 30-28 as a 10-point favorite at Rice and 35-28 as a 20.5-point home favorite over North Texas. That's four one-score games against four of the worst teams in the conference. Their luck runs out this week against a legit team in UTSA.
Plays on road teams (UTSA) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7-plus games after scoring 42 points or more last game are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. UTSA gets and extra day of rest and preparation after hosting USF last Friday, while Tulane had to travel to face FAU on Saturday. That's a nice little hidden edge for the Roadrunners. Wrong team favored here. Bet UTSA Friday.
|11-24-23||Dolphins -6.5 v. Jets||Top||34-13||Win||100||115 h 3 m||Show|
25* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins -6.5
This was a good early grab on the Dolphins -6.5 as soon as this line came out on Sunday. It is a 25* at -7 or better, a 20* at -7.5 to -9.5 and a 15* at -10 or worse at this point. I already expected this line to climb, but then the Jets announced they were going to start Tim Boyle over Zach Wilson on Monday, and it shot up to -9.5 and -10 in some places.
The Jets are desperate at this point because they have scored a total of 9 offensive touchdowns in 10 games. They know they should have traded for a QB because they just don't have any good options on the roster. Boyle is actually a downgrade from Zach Wilson. Boyle had a 1-to-13 TD/INT ratio at UConn, an 11-to-13 TD/INT ratio at Eastern Kentucky and currently has a 3-to-8 TD/INT ratio in the NFL to this point. That's 17 TD and 32 INT in his career dating back to college.
It's safe to say Boyle and this Jets offense won't be able to keep up with Miami's No. 1 ranked offensive in the entire NFL. The Dolphins are scoring 30.5 points per game, averaging 434 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play. The Chiefs and Raiders held them in check the last two weeks, which is keeping this line lower than it should be. But the Chiefs are holding everyone in check, and the Dolphins shot themselves in the foot against the Raiders. They didn't have to punt on any of their first nine possessions of that game and left a ton of points on the board with three turnovers and getting stopped on downs. The Raiders didn't stop them as they had 422 total yards.
But while this Miami offense has hit the skids in recent weeks, this Miami defense has picked up the slack. Jalen Ramsey already has three interceptions in two games since returning from injury. They held the Chiefs to 14 points and 267 yards and the Raiders to 13 points and 296 yards. Vic Fangio now has all the players in place that he needs to run his aggressive, proven scheme. Don't be surprised if Miami's defense scores for us in this one against Boyle.
No question the Jets have a great defense, but they are getting tired from being on the field too much. I think we saw a little quit in them last week in their 32-6 loss to Buffalo. They allowed 393 total yards to the Bills in that contest. Now they have to come back on a short week and are a tired defense, and a tired team in general playing for a 5th consecutive week. The Dolphins had their bye prior to facing the Raiders last week so they should still be very fresh, which is a huge advantage on this short week.
New York head coach Robert Saleh is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on a short week as the head coach of the Jets. New York is 11-22 ATS in its last 33 vs AFC East opponents. Tua is 9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more. Bet the Dolphins Friday.
|11-24-23||Iowa v. Nebraska -1||Top||13-10||Loss||-110||90 h 40 m||Show|
20* Iowa/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska -1
I love the spot for the Nebraska Cornhuskers this week. They need one more win to get bowl eligible. That only adds to their motivation to beat their biggest rivals in the Iowa Hawkeyes. They lost by 3 to Michigan State, by 3 to Maryland and in OT to Wisconsin in their last three games but were -6 in turnovers in those three games and easily could have won all three. This is a much better team than their 5-6 record would indicate. They aren't going to pack it in now.
Conversely, Iowa is a much worse team than its 9-2 record would indicate. They are actually getting outgained by 34 yards per game on the season despite playing a very soft schedule. They have the worst offense in the country averaging 247.5 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. Compare that to Nebraska, which averages 317.9 yards per game and 5.2 per play.
But the biggest reason to back Nebraska is because Iowa is in a massive letdown spot here. They just clinched a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game by beating Illinois last week. They will be looking ahead to that game, and they won't put nearly as much emphasis into beating Nebraska as they normally would. They want to stay healthy to try and give a good effort in that game after getting blown out pretty much every time they have won the Big Ten West in recent years. They will get blown out again in that game, but first they are going to fall to Nebraska Friday.
After four straight heartbreaking losses to Iowa by one score in all four, the Huskers finally broke through with a 24-17 win at Iowa last year. They deserved to win every one of those one-score games and finally got one. That will give them a lot of confidence that they can do it again this year with that monkey off their back and a 7-game losing streak to Iowa in the rearview.
Nebraska has been through three different quarterbacks this season due to injury. They may have found their best QB against Wisconsin last week in Chuba Purdy. He completed 15-of-24 passes for 169 yards with one TD and one INT, while also rushing for 105 yards and a score on 14 carries. He gives them a great chance to win if he starts again this week, and whoever is under center will be better than Iowa's Deacon Hill, who is completing 49.7% of his passes and averaging just 5.1 per attempt.
Iowa needs to be able to run the ball to be successful. Well, they aren't going to be able to run on Nebraska's stout run defense. The Huskers allow just 87 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry, holding opponents to 45 rushing yards per game and 1.1 per carry less than their season averages. Nebraska is the better rushing team averaging 187 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry and will win the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one. That will be the difference, plus their edge in motivation. Bet Nebraska Friday.
|11-24-23||Miami-FL v. Boston College +9||45-20||Loss||-110||89 h 38 m||Show|
15* Miami/Boston College ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston College +9
I really question Miami's motivation and their physical and mental state going into this regular season finale against Boston College. What started out as a promising season with a win over Texas A&M and hopes of winning the ACC has turned into a disaster. It all unraveled for Miami when they didn't take a knee and lost to Georgia Tech.
The Hurricanes have gone 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last five games overall with both wins coming by 8 points or less, so they haven't covered this kind of number in any of their last seven games. They are coming off three consecutive losses in high-profile games. They lost 20-6 at NC State, 27-20 at Florida State and 38-31 to Louisville. After falling just short against FSU and Louisville, two national title contenders, they won't be nearly as excited to face Boston College this week.
Boston College will have no problem getting up to face Miami. I also like the spot for Boston College because they get extra rest here after playing Pittsburgh on Thursday last week. So they get two more days of rest than Miami will on this short week for the Hurricanes. That's a big advantage and probably worth a couple points. Sometimes you just have to play the spot, and this is one of those times.
Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Miami is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite. The Hurricanes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after going over the total in their previous game. The Hurricanes are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games when playing with 6 or fewer days' rest. Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team that allows a 58% completion percentage or worse. Bet Boston College Friday.
|11-24-23||Memphis v. Temple +11.5||45-21||Loss||-110||89 h 37 m||Show|
15* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +11.5
Memphis just suffered their dream crusher loss in a 38-34 home loss to SMU that eliminated them from AAC Championship contention. They will fall flat on their faces this week and probably lose this game outright to Temple now. We'll take the points with the Owls as a result.
Temple has been so much more competitive when QB EJ Warner has been healthy. Warner is completing 57.7% of his passes for 2,746 yards with a 21-to-11 TD/INT ratio. He returned against Navy three weeks ago and threw for 402 yards and 4 TD. He threw for 280 yards and 3 TD against USF two weeks ago. And he threw for 323 yards and 2 TD against UAB last week. Temple was competitive in all three games.
Memphis just has a way of playing in close games. In fact, eight of Memphis' last nine games have been decided by 10 points or fewer. The lone exception was their 45-21 win over UAB that came against a backup QB for UAB due to injury. It was also a misleading final as UAB actually outgained them 381 to 358 but was -4 in turnovers.
The reason Memphis struggles to get margin is because their defense is awful. They have allowed 38 points or more in four consecutive games. They allow 34.9 points per game, 464 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play in conference play. Those are numbers very similar to Temple. I think the Owls can keep up in a shootout, and they will never be out of this one due to Memphis' leaky defense. Bet Temple Friday.
|11-23-23||49ers -4.5 v. Seahawks||31-13||Win||100||97 h 33 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West BAILOUT on San Francisco -4.5
The San Francisco 49ers are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS when healthy this season and 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS when not healthy. By healthy I mean having both Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel on the field at the same time. They came out of the bye healthy, and the offense has been humming again.
The 49ers beat the Jaguars 34-3 and hung 437 total yards on a very good Jacksonville defense out of the bye. They followed it up with a 27-14 win over the Bucs last week and had 420 total yards in the win. Brock Purdy has been flawless to prove his doubters wrong, and it will continue this week against the Seattle Seahawks.
The 49ers will be the fresher team because they recently had a bye. The Seahawks are gassed because they had their bye on October 8th and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week and on a short week. What makes them even more gassed is just how many of their games have gone down to the wire since the bye. Four of their last six games have been decided by 4 points or less. That includes their 29-26 win over Washington on a last-second FG, and their 17-16 loss to the Rams last week where they missed a last-second FG that would have won it. I don't trust them from a physical or mental state on this short week.
The 49ers have had no problem covering against the Seahawks in recent meetings. They won 27-7 in their first meeting last year, 21-13 in their 2nd meeting last year, and 41-23 in the playoffs last year. They dominated the box score in all three games. They averaged 419 yards per game and allowed just 275 yards per game to the Seahawks, outgaining them by 144 yards per game. They have outgained them by at least 104 yards in all three meetings.
The Seahawks are getting outgained by 19 yards per game on the season and are fortunate to be 6-4. The 49ers are outgaining opponents by 84 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play. The are elite and the best team in the NFL in my opinion. The other team right alongside them is the Ravens, and the Seahawks were blasted 37-3 at Baltimore a few weeks ago. They gave up 515 yards to the Ravens and were held to 151, getting outgained by a whopping 366 yards.
Seattle QB Geno Smith hurt his arm and was knocked out of the game against the Rams. He did come back in for the final drive and may play in this one, but he won't be 100%. RB Kennetch Walker is doubtful for this one. These injuries are starting to pile up again for the Seahawks, and they stand no chance of being competitive with the 49ers at anything less than full strength.
Road favorites are 24-1 SU & 19-6 ATS in their last 25 tries on Thanksgiving Day. Seattle is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the 2nd half of the season. San Francisco is 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in its last nine games vs. division opponents. Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after rushing for 75 or fewer yards last game. Bet the 49ers Thursday.
|11-23-23||Seton Hall v. USC -4||63-71||Win||100||17 h 47 m||Show|
15* Seton Hall/USC FS1 ANNIHILATOR on USC -4
The USC Trojans have one of the best backcourt tandems in the country in Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier. Ellis is averaging 21.0 points per game while Collier is averaging 21.0 points per game as well.
After beating Kansas State 82-69 as 3-point favorites and then covering against CS-Bakersfield, the Trojans ran into some injuries. Ellis didn't play in their upset loss to UC-Irvine, and Kobe Johnson (15.0 PPG) has missed two games as well. But now both guys are healthy and expected to play in this tournament. There's also a chance the Trojans get the debut of Bronny James, Lebron's son, for this tournament though I'm not expecting it. They don't need him to beat Seton Hall.
While USC has tested themselves already against Kansas State and UC-Irvine, Seton Hall is not prepared for this tournament at all. The Pirates have played the 330th-ranked schedule out of 362 teams. So there's not much you can gather from their 4-0 start against St. Peter's, Farleigh Dickinson, Albany and Wagner. This is a massive step up in class for them, and they will fail.
USC is 14-3 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game. Andy Enfield is 13-4 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of USC. Bet USC Thursday.
|11-23-23||Commanders v. Cowboys OVER 46||Top||10-45||Win||100||93 h 44 m||Show|
20* Commanders/Cowboys NFC Afternoon FEAST on OVER 46
The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They are very pass-happy and up-tempo on offense and they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. That's an OVER bettors' dream in the NFL, and we'll play this game accordingly.
The Commanders are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall, and their game against the Patriots that stayed under should have went over. They had 37 combined points with a total of 40.5 with 1:52 remaining in the 3rd quarter. Neither team scored again.
The Commanders lost 31-38 to Philadelphia for 69 combined points. They had 472 total yards against the Eagles. They had 432 total yards against the Patriots. The lost to the Seahawks 29-26 for 55 combined points and gave up 489 total yards to the Seahawks. Then last week they lost 31-19 to the Giants for 50 combined points. That's Tommy Devito and the Giants, who they allowed 31 points to. But they also had 403 total yards in the loss and probably should have scored a lot more if they didn't turn it over six times.
The Cowboys are rolling offensively. In their last four games, they had 43 points against the Rams, 406 total yards against the Eagles, 49 points against the Giants and 33 points against the Panthers. They will hang another big number on what is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Commanders in their current form. Their defense has struggled when they have actually been tested. They gave up 42 points and 421 total yards to the 49ers and 28 points to the Eagles. They will get tested by Sam Howell and this underrated Washington offense.
Ron Rivera is 20-2 OVER as a road underdog of 7 points or more as a head coach. Rivera is 11-1 OVER as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as a head coach. Rivera is 9-0 OVER in road games after losing six or seven of his last eight games as a head coach. Rivera is 8-0 OVER in road games vs. elite offensive teams that score 29 points or more as a head coach. Mike McCarthy is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. a team with a losing record in the second half of the season as the head coach of Dallas. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-23-23||Michigan State v. Arizona -5||Top||68-74||Win||100||15 h 0 m||Show|
20* Michigan State/Arizona FOX No-Brainer on Arizona -5
The Arizona Wildcats are absolutely loaded this season. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS despite being favored by 25 points or more four times, they covered all four. They also upset Duke 78-73 as 5-point road underdogs, handing Duke their first loss at Cameron Indoor since current head coach Jon Scheyer took over for Coach K.
That gives these teams a common opponent as Michigan State lost 74-65 as 4-point underdogs on a neutral court to Duke. I think that's a telling sign of how this game is going to go for the Spartans. If they couldn't have with Duke on a neutral, they're certainly not going to be able to hang with Arizona.
Michigan State was also upset 79-76 as 16.5-point home favorites by James Madison earlier this season. This team has been grossly overvalued since opening as a Top 5 team. They don't have shooting as they are hitting just 26.3% from 3-point range this season. Arizona shoots the 3 at a 41.5% clip to compare.
Plays against underdogs (Michigan State) - off a blowout win by 30 points or more against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more in five consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Arizona Thursday.
|11-23-23||Packers v. Lions OVER 44.5||Top||29-22||Win||100||89 h 44 m||Show|
20* Packers/Lions NFC Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5
The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL averaging 27.2 points per game, 399.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They have combined for 77 points with the Chargers and 57 points with the Bears in their last two games coming in. This 44.5-point total is a very low total for a game involving the Lions.
The Lions are showing how scary good they can be offensively when healthy in recent weeks. They put up 26 points and 486 total yards on the Raiders, 41 points and 533 total yards on the Chargers and 31 points on an improving Bears defense the last three weeks. But their defense has shown a lot of holes lately. They allowed 38 points and 421 total yards to the Chargers and 26 points and 334 total yards to the Bears.
The Packers are showing signs of life on offense in recent weeks. They had 391 total yards against the Rams, 399 total yards against the Steelers and 397 total yards against the Chargers in their last three games. They can get things going against this Detroit defense again, and their defense has been far from spectacular. The Chargers should have scored a lot more points on them last week than they did, but they had a ton of drops. They should have scored 30-plus points on the Packers.
Detroit beat Green Bay 34-20 in the first meeting this season for 54 combined points. That game was in Green Bay outdoors in tougher conditions. This game will be indoors, and both offenses will thrive in the dome in Detroit. The Packers are likely losing their most important defender in De'Vondre Campbell for this one. They could also be without Jaire Alexander.
Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following a win by 6 points or less. Jordan Love is going to have to throw the ball a ton to try and keep up with this Detroit offense that is scoring 30.0 points per game at home this season. They'll likely have to abandon the run early in this one. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-22-23||Bradley -4 v. UTEP||63-59||Push||0||12 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Bradley -4
The Bradley Braves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season against a tough schedule. They went on the road and beat UAB 73-71 as 4.5-point dogs, beat Utah State 72-66 as 5.5-point home favorites and topped Tarleton State 86-63 as 10-point home favorites. They also beat Tulane 80-77 as 1-point favorites and controlled the game throughout as it only became close late.
UTEP is getting too much respect for its 5-0 start against a much softer schedule. The five wins came against McMurray, U of Oklahoma Science and Arts, UC-Santa Barbara, Austin Pey and Cal. Those last two wins against AP and Cal went to the wire. This will be by far their toughest test of the season to date, while Bradley has already faced three teams that are better than UTEP and beat them all.
Bradley is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite. The Braves are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 80 points or more last game. The Braves are the class of the MVC right alongside Indiana State and Drake. Bet Bradley Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Grizzlies v. Rockets -4.5||91-111||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -4.5
The Houston Rockets are one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA right now. They are 6-3 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only losses all coming on the road to three of the best teams in the NBA in the Clippers by 6, the Lakers by 1 and the Warriors by 5.
Now the Rockets are back home where they are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. They host one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 3-10 SU & 5-8 ATS this season. The Grizzlies have the worst injury situation in the entire NBA which is the biggest reason for their struggles.
Memphis is 1-18 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Bet the Rockets Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Raptors v. Pacers OVER 237.5||Top||132-131||Win||100||12 h 4 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Pacers OVER 237.5
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 12-1 OVER in their 13 games this season scoring 128.1 points per game and allowing 125.9 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 29th in defensive efficiency. Oddsmakers can't set their totals high enough.
The Toronto Raptors are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 240 points with Milwaukee, 255 points with Detroit and 233 points with Orlando. They will be forced to play up-tempo with the Pacers controlling the pace playing at home. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Bucks v. Celtics OVER 235||Top||116-119||Push||0||11 h 48 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 235
Two of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA square off tonight. The Bucks rank 5th in offensive rating while the Celtics rank 6th. The Bucks also rank 6th in pace but are a poor defensive team ranking 23rd in that category.
Shootouts have been the norm between the Bucks and Celtics in recent meetings and both are even more OVER teams this season. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 239, 256 and 257 combined points in those three meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-22-23||High Point v. Hofstra -5.5||92-97||Loss||-110||10 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Hofstra -5.5
Hofstra is absolutely loaded this season and it's showing up in this tournament. They beat Buffalo 102-68 as 9.5-point favorites and Wright State 85-76 as 2.5-point favorites the past two days. They have one of the best guard tandems in the country in Thomas (22.0 PPG) and Dubar (19.6 PPG). These guards will lead them to another blowout victory over High Point today.
High Point has had to work much harder for its two victories the past two days beating a rebuilding Iona team 82-68 and then topping Illinois State 74-72 yesterday. This is a big step up in class for them. Keep in mind this team lost to Wofford and Queens prior to this tournament.
Hofstra is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as a favorite. Hofstra is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game. Bet Hofstra Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Indiana State -5.5 v. Pepperdine||Top||90-82||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana State -5.5
Indiana State is absolutely loaded this season. The Sycamores are 3-1 SU & 2-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road at Alabama, which looks like it might be the best team in the country. They beat IUPUI 96-57 as 17.5-point favorites and then Rice 103-88 as 6.5-point favorites yesterday.
Indiana State jumped out to a 55-34 halftime lead on Rice yesterday and was able to coast in the 2nd half to save up for Pepperdine today. No player on Indiana State played more than 29 minutes yesterday, so they are going to be very fresh for Pepperdine.
The Waves are coming off two consecutive blowout losses to UNLV 82-68 as 2.5-point dogs and then UC-Irvine 76-60 as 5.5-point dogs yesterday. Indiana State is better than both of those teams and the class of the MVC right alongside Bradley and Drake. I expect another blowout victory in the Sycamores' favor today.
Indiana State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following two consecutive games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers. Pepperdine is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a loss by 10 points or more. The Waves are 0-7 ATS in thier last seven road games after scoring 60 points or less. Pepperdine is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game. Bet Indiana State Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Tennessee v. Kansas UNDER 140.5||60-69||Win||100||4 h 26 m||Show|
15* Tennessee/Kansas ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 140.5
Tennessee is a dead nuts UNDER team dating back to last season. The Volunteers rank 1st in the entire country in defensive efficiency this season after ranking 1st last season as well. Nothing comes easy against them, and they play at a slow tempo.
Kansas had nothing come easy yesterday in a 73-59 loss to Marquette. The Jayhawks look like one of the more overrated teams in the country, especially from an offensive standpoint. But the Jayhawks rank 6th in the country in defensive efficiency currently and get after it on that end.
Both teams lost yesterday, so both will be playing with extra intensity on the defensive end to try and get a win. Plus, this is an early 2:30 EST start time and will be a sleepy early afternoon game for two teams not used to playing this early.
Tennessee is 15-2 UNDER in its last 17 games as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or PK. Kansas is 75-47 UNDER in its last 122 games with a line of +3 to -3. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-21-23||Jazz +8 v. Lakers||99-131||Loss||-110||21 h 44 m||Show|
15* Jazz/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +8
The Utah Jazz are playing well going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Their two losses came to the Suns by 3 points apiece with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant both healthy. Now they will give LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are run for their money tonight.
The Lakers are getting too much respect now after winning five of their last six games coming in. But three of the five were decided by 6 points or less, and it has mostly come against a very soft schedule. They lost by 15 at home to the Kings for their lone loss. Their only wins by margin came against arguably the two worst teams in the NBA in the Grizzlies and Blazers, and they also only beat the Blazers by 6. They beat the Rockets by 1 last time out.
The Jazz should be the fresher team here too playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, while the Lakers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. The Jazz are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games as underdogs. Utah is 32-13 ATS in its last 45 games vs. a team with a winning record.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, winning between 51-60% of their games on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Jazz Tuesday.
|11-21-23||Tennessee v. Purdue UNDER 135||67-71||Loss||-110||11 h 36 m||Show|
15* Tennessee/Purdue ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 135
Tennessee is a dead nuts UNDER team dating back to last season. They are at it again this season. They rank 257th in adjusted tempo, 348th in average length of opponents possession and 1st in the entire country in defensive efficiency. They make their opponents work for every shot they get.
Purdue ranks 189th in adjusted tempo and 5th in defensive efficiency. So these are currently two of the Top 5 defensive teams in the country. The end result should be points being very hard to come by for both teams.
Tennessee suffocated Syracuse in a 73-56 victory that saw 129 combined points with a 145.5-point total yesterday to go well UNDER the total. Purdue topped Gonzaga 73-63 for just 136 combined points with a total of 153.5. These teams both went UNDER their totals by a combined 34 points yesterday.
Tennessee is 15-2 UNDER in its last 17 games as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less. The Volunteers are 18-5 UNDER in their last 23 games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|11-21-23||Pacers v. Hawks OVER 250||Top||157-152||Win||100||22 h 9 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Hawks OVER 250
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 11-1 OVER in their 12 games this season scoring 125.7 points per game and allowing 123.7 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency. Oddsmakers can't set their totals high enought.
Now the Pacers play another dead nuts OVER team in the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks rank 3rd in pace, 6th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency. The OVER is 5-1 in Hawks last six games overall.
The OVER is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings between the Pacers and Hawks. They combined for 273 points in their most recent meeting and had no problem topping the 249.5-point total. They won't have a problem topping this 250-point total, either. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|11-20-23||Bradley -120 v. Tulane||80-77||Win||100||14 h 21 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Bradley ML -120
The Bradley Braves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season against a tough schedule. They went on the road and beat UAB 73-71 as 4.5-point dogs, beat Utah State 72-66 as 5.5-point home favorites and topped Tarleton State 86-63 as 10-point home favorites. UAB and Utah State are two of the better mid-major programs in the country, so they have been battle-tested heading into this SoCal Challenge Tournament.
Tulane is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS and has faced an extremely weak schedule. The Green Wave beat Nicholls State 91-81 as 13-point favorites, Northwestern State 88-71 as 18.5-point favorites before topping Sacramento State 92-57. This will be a shock to the system for the Green Wave having to go on the road for the first time this season and face a real opponent in Bradley.
Bradley is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a game where they made 60% of their shots or better. Tulane is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after playing three consecutive games as a favorite. Bet Bradley on the Money Line Monday.
|11-20-23||Eagles +3 v. Chiefs||Top||21-17||Win||100||12 h 59 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +3
The Philadelphia Eagles want revenge from their 38-35 loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. They got some bad whistles in that game and deserved to win. They outgained the Chiefs 417 to 340, or by 77 total yards. It was probably Jalen Hurts' best game of his career to boot, and you know he wants some revenge here.
But a big reason I like the Eagles here is the weather report. There is a 75% chance of rain with 15-20 MPH winds expected. So it's going to favor the team that runs the football better. Well, the Eagles are the better running team with the better run defense. The Chiefs have been vulnerable against the run and haven't been able to establish a consistent rushing attack.
The Eagles rank 8th in rushing at 129.7 yards per game while the Chiefs rank 19th at 103.8 yards per game. The Eagles are 1st in the NFL at stopping the run allowing 66.3 yards per game, while the Chiefs are 17th at 112.2 yards per game allowed. The Eagles are also 5th allowing just 3.7 yards per carry while the Chiefs are 29th allowing 4.5 yards per carry.
This Kansas City offense is really broken this season. They have managed 14 points or fewer in three of their last four games with the 21 they scored on the Dolphins coming with an asterisk because 7 of those came from a defensive touchdown. The Eagles will focus on stopping Travic Kelce just like everyone else has recently, and that formula has really worked in stopping the Chiefs because Mahomes doesn't trust his other receivers.
The Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games. Plays against home favorites (Kansas City) - after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game against an opponent that has gained 7 or more passing yards per attempt in three consecutive games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Eagles Monday.
|11-20-23||Heat -120 v. Bulls||118-100||Win||100||20 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat ML -120
The Miami Heat will be out for revenge from a 102-97 loss at Chicago on Saturday just two days ago. They led 22-1 in the first quarter and couldn't hang on as they got complacent and the Bulls got hot. They won't make the same mistake again here in the rematch.
The Heat are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall while the Bulls are 1-3 SU in their last four games. Plays on road favorites (Miami) - revenging a same-season loss while also off an upset loss as a favorite are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. I love the spot for Miami tonight. Bet the Heat on the Money Line Monday.
|11-20-23||Bucks -9 v. Wizards||142-129||Win||100||19 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -9
The Milwaukee Bucks are starting to form chemistry now with Damian Lillard in the fold and they are playing up to their potential. The Bucks have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone ATS loss coming by a half-point in a 9-point home win over the Bulls as 9.5-point favorites. They beat the Mavs by 7 as 2-point home favorites on the 2nd of a back-to-back. They also beat the Raptors by 16 and the Hornets by 31 on the road.
Now they hit the road again and face arguably the worst team in the entire NBA in the Washington Wizards. The Wizards are 2-10 this season. The Wizards rank 25th in defensive efficiency and are allowing 122.9 points per game and 49.6% shooting this season. They also rank just 24th in offensive efficiency and 27th in net rating.
The Bucks are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Wizards with two wins coming by double-digits. Milwaukee is 39-20 ATS in its last 59 games as a road favorite. The Wizards just lost by 13 to the Mavericks and by 21 to the Knicks at home in their last two games to fall to 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season. It will be more of the same here against the Bucks with another double-digit home loss. Bet the Bucks Monday.
|11-20-23||Connecticut -5.5 v. Texas||Top||81-71||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
20* UConn/Texas ESPNU No-Brainer on UConn -5.5
The UConn Huskies won the national title last season and are loaded again this season. They are off to a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season with all four victories coming by 20 points or more. That includes their 77-57 win as 11-point favorites over Indiana yesterday in the early game.
Since they blew out Indiana, they were able to rest their starters late. They also played the early game yesterday while Texas played the night game. So they got to rest even longer plus watch the Longhorns play after. They will be the fresher team and will have the better game plan coming into this one as a result.
Texas is 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall and has been grossly overvalued. After covering by a single point in the opener, they failed to cover by 5 against Delaware State, by 4.5 against Rice and by 16.5 against Louisville. That 81-80 win as 17.5-point favorites over Louisville yesterday was alarming.
Louisville is expected to be one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country after last season's 4-27 disaster. Louisville was beaten in an exhibition game in the preseason. They only beat UMBC by 1 as 7.5-point favorites and were upset by Chattanooga by 10 as 3.5-point favorites. The fact that the Longhorns needed a buzzer-beater to beat Louisville is all you need to know about the state of their program this season, especially since they are without one of their best players in Dylan Disu.
UConn is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 neutral court games. The Huskies are 14-0 ATS in their last 14 games following three consecutive non-conference games. UConn is 19-2 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games. Texas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 75 points or more in two consecutive games. Bet UConn Monday.
|11-19-23||Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 220.5||104-105||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
15* Rockets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 220.5
The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank 29th in the NBA in pace and 4th in defensive efficiency. The Lakers rank 16th in pace and 22nd in offensive efficiency. This game will be played at a snail's pace tonight with some poor offense on both sides.
Five of Houston's last six games have seen 219 or fewer combined points. The lone exception was their 128-94 win over the Lakers that saw 222 combined points. But familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I expect this rematch to be more low-scoring, and we only need it to be 2 points less to cash this UNDER 220.5 ticket. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Kings v. Mavs OVER 244.5||129-113||Loss||-110||10 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Mavericks OVER 244.5
The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 11-2 OVER in their 13 games this season, scoring 123.5 points per game and allowing 119.7 points per game. They rank 4th in pace, 2nd in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency.
Now they play a Sacramento Kings team that is a dead nuts OVER team when De'Aaron Fox is healthy. They have gone for 252, 235 and 249 combined points in their last three games since Fox returned from injury. They have scored 132, 125 and 129 points in those three games and will hang another big number on the Mavericks tonight.
Dallas is 8-0 OVER when the total is 230 or higher this season. The Mavericks are 12-1 OVER in their last 13 games after playing three consecutive road games. They just combined for 257 points with the Bucks last night and have combined for at least 241 points with their opponents in six consecutive games now while going OVER in all six. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Kings -120 v. Mavs||129-113||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings ML -120
The Sacramento Kings have been rolling since getting D'Aaron Fox back from injury. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four games since he returned. Now they are in a great spot tonight with yesterday off and playing a Mavericks team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.
The Mavericks put everything into their 125-132 road loss at Milwaukee last night and won't have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight. The Mavericks are a terrible defensive team ranking 25th in defensive efficiency this season. They won't be giving much effort on that end considering how tired they are.
Sacramento is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games. The Kings are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher. Sacramento is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 116-plus points per game. Bet the Kings on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-19-23||Magic v. Pacers -4||Top||128-116||Loss||-110||7 h 9 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4
The Indiana Pacers undervalued to start the season opening 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS. They score 126.5 points per game while ranking 2nd in pace and 1st in offensive efficiency. Playing at home today, the Pacers will force the Magic into an up-tempo game. They are forcing everyone into up-tempo games, which is beneficial to them considering they are the best offensive team in the NBA, so more possessions equals more points for the Pacers.
This is a great spot for the Pacers as they are rested and ready to go after having the last four days off. Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing their 4th road game in 6 days and are a tired team right now, especially since they are short-handed due to injury. The Magic lost by 20 at Brooklyn and then upset the Bulls twice in three days, but the Bulls are terrible and the Magic are getting respect now for those two wins when they shouldn't be.
Orlando is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 games following two consecutive wins by 6 points or fewer. The Pacers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 November home games. The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five meetings with the Magic. Bet the Pacers Sunday.
|11-19-23||Magic v. Pacers OVER 234||Top||128-116||Win||100||7 h 9 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Magic/Pacers OVER 234
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 10-1 OVER this season. They score 126.5 points per game and allow 123.4 points per game this season. They rank 2nd in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.
Playing at home today, the Pacers will force the Magic into an up-tempo game. They are forcing everyone into up-tempo games, which is beneficial to them considering they are the best offensive team in the NBA, so more possessions equals more points for the Pacers. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Seahawks v. Rams +2||Top||16-17||Win||100||142 h 58 m||Show|
25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +2
I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week. They are coming off their bye week and are as healthy as they have been all season. QB Matthew Stafford will return from injury, as will LB ERnest Jones and RT Rob Havenstein. The Rams are primed for a big effort to try and get back into the playoff hunt.
I love backing teams that are pissed off going into their bye week because they usually take it more seriously and make it a chance to improve instead of relax. It worked for the 49ers last week and I was all over them coming off three straight losses going into their bye. They crushed the Jaguars 34-3. The Rams are off three consecutive losses as well and will crush the Seahawks for the 2nd time this season.
The Rams beat the Seahawks 30-13 on the road in the season opener. There was nothing fluky about that win as the Rams outgained the Seahawks 426 to 180, or by 246 total yards. And the Rams didn't have Cooper Kupp in that game. The Rams simply own the Seahawks, going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and a couple of those include close losses last season when they didn't have Stafford. They have dominated the Seahawks with a healthy Stafford or Jared Goff. Sean McVay owns Pete Carroll.
I question how much the Seahawks have left in the tank here. They have played five consecutive weeks and were in dog fights in four of those five games. They are coming off a 29-26 home win over the Washington Commanders needing a last-second FG to beat them. They needed a last-second TD to beat the Browns and PJ Walker three weeks ago, and they were blasted 37-3 at Baltimore two weeks ago.
The Seahawks are 6-3 this season but have played the 3rd-easiest schedule in the NFL. The Rams have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL. The win in Week 2 over the Lions was legit, but the Seahawks' other five wins have come against the Panthers, Giants, Cardinals, Commanders and the Browns with Walker. When they have stepped up in class they have struggled.
Seattle is actually getting outgained on the season by 23 yards per game, so their 6-3 record is pretty fraudulent. They have also been outscored on the season. I think they are getting too much respect here being favored on the road, and I'll gladly back the home dog that I believe to be the better team with a massive rest and preparation advantage. Plus, the Rams own the Seahawks. Seattle could easily be looking ahead to the game against San Francisco on Thanksgiving that will likely decide the division. They could try and conserve some energy for that contest instead, while the Rams will be 'all in' for a win here. Bet the Rams Sunday.
|11-19-23||Kansas State v. Miami-FL -2.5||Top||83-91||Win||100||4 h 16 m||Show|
20* Kansas State/Miami Bahamas Championship No-Brainer on Miami -2.5
The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team. All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 28.8 points, Norchad Omier averaging 14.0 points and a team-high 9.8 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 13.0 points and a team-high 5.0 assists.
Bensley Joseph (13.8 PPG, 3.0 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and handled it very well. Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 17.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists. This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.
Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and then easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites. They had a letdown against FIU in a non-cover in a 86-80 win, likely looking ahead to this Bahamas Championship Tournament. But they got back to their covering ways, beating Georgia 79-67 as 8-point favorites. And now I expect them to blast this overrated Kansas State team.
Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year. Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year. The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season. But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.
Kansas State has been unimpressive thus far. The Wildcats lost 82-69 as 3-point dogs to USC on a neutral. They only beat Bellarmine 83-75 as 16-point favorites in their next game. After beating South Dakota State 91-68 and Providence 73-70 and covering both games, the Wildcats are now getting respect again. But they aren't in the same class as this Miami team, and that will show today. Bet Miami Sunday.
|11-19-23||Cardinals v. Texans OVER 46.5||Top||16-21||Loss||-110||162 h 30 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Texans OVER 46.5
The Houston Texans are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They went for 76 combined points two weeks ago with the Tampa Bay Bucs and 57 combined points with the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Their offense has done the heavy lifting as they have won both of those games while putting up gaudy offensive numbers.
The Texans put up 496 total yards on a very good Tampa Bay defense and 544 total yards on Cincinnati's defense last week. CJ Stroud is having one of the best rookie seasons we've ever seen. He is completing 62% of his passes with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. The Texans have shifted offensive philosophy and let Stroud throw the ball downfield a lot more the last two weeks, and it has produced tremendous results. It's not going to stop now.
I was impressed with how well Kyler Murray played in his first game action in a year last week. He led the Cardinals to 352 total yards and 25 points against the Falcons in a last-second win last week. Murray had a key scramble for a first down on 3rd and 10 on that game-winning drive that shows he's not scared to run. He is much more dynamic when that's the case.
Both of these defenses leave a lot to be desired. The Cardinals are giving up 26.3 points per game while the Texans are allowing 21.3 points per game. The Texans in particular have a ton of injuries on defense right now which is forcing them to win shootouts. I mean they gave up 37 points to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in their last home game, which is all you need to know about the state of their defense. Arizona has allowed at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.
Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome at NRG Stadium in Houston. I like backing OVERS in non-conference games because these teams just aren't familiar with one another, and it's hard to prepare for one another in a week's time. Stroud and Murray are in line for a shootout Sunday afternoon. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Bears v. Lions OVER 46||26-31||Win||100||148 h 4 m||Show|
15* NFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Bears/Lions OVER 46
The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team when playing in a controlled environment like their dome and on turf. They are scoring 26.8 points per game and averaging 406.4 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play as one of the top offenses in the NFL. They are going to hang a big number on the Chicago Bears to lead the way in cashing this OVER.
We saw what this Detroit offense could do when fully healthy at the skill positions last week as they hung 41 points and 533 total yards on the Chargers. But they were life and death with the Chargers because their defense couldn't get a stop, allowing 38 points in a game that saw 77 combined points last week. The Bears will have success against their defense as well.
Chicago gets Justin Fields back at QB this week and he's a dead nuts OVER QB. They could also have RB Khalil Herbert back this week, tho D'Onta Foreman has been just fine in his place. They have been without Fields for the past 4.5 games and their offense has struggled without him. Prior to that, they scored 40 points and hung 451 total yards on the Commanders after scoring 28 points with 471 yards against the Broncos the game prior.
This was a very high-scoring series last year with the Bears and Lions combining for 61 and 51 points in their two meetings. It will be more of the same in this one. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Raiders v. Dolphins OVER 47.5||13-20||Loss||-110||148 h 4 m||Show|
15* AFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Raiders/Dolphins OVER 47.5
The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL. They are averaging 31.7 points per game, 435.3 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play this season. The OVER is 3-1 in Dolphins four home games this season with all four seeing 47 or more combined points, and that even includes games against three of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Giants, Panthers and Patriots. Miami home games are averaging 62.0 combined points per game this season.
The Dolphins are going to hang a big number on the Raiders today to lead the way to us cashing the OVER. Aiden O'Connell seems like an OVER QB for the Raiders much more so than Jimmy G and Brian Hoyer. O'Connell is more of a gunslinger and he will be unleashed in this game Sunday. He won't have the benefit of trying to protect a lead like he has the last two weeks.
The Raiders played the Giants and Tommy DeVito and the Jets and Zach Wilson the last two weeks. The last time they played a legit offense was the game prior when they gave up 486 total yards to the Lions. They will have to play hurry-up on offense this week to try and keep up with the Dolphins while trailing. I think they can score enough points to help contribute to us cashing this OVER, plus O'Connell is going to make some mistakes and set up short fields and easy scoring opportunities for the Dolphins as well.
Miami is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 games after going under the total in its previous game. This is a very low total for a game involving the Dolphins. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Raiders v. Dolphins -12||13-20||Loss||-110||117 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Miami Dolphins -12
I love the spot for the Miami Dolphins this week. They are coming off their bye week following a tough loss to the Chiefs in Germany in a game they proved they belonged with the top teams in this league finally. They outgained the Chiefs and held them to just 267 total yards, but the difference was a fluky fumble that was returned for a TD in a 7-point victory by the Chiefs.
The Dolphins have struggled against the top teams in the NFL, but they have beaten up on everyone else, especially at home. The Dolphins are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season with all four wins coming by 14 points or more. They are scoring 43.5 points per game, averaging 516 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play at home while allowing just 18.5 points per game, 286 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play at home. They are outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game, outgaining them by 230 yards per game and 2.9 yards per play at home.
The Raiders had the good fortune of getting to face Tommy DeVito and the Giants and Zach Wilson and the Jets in the two games since Antonio Pierce took over at head coach. This team still isn't very good, and they will get their doors blown off this week. They were outgained by the Jets 365 to 274, or by 91 total yards and didn't deserve to win that game. Their luck runs out this week.
The Dolphins are getting healthier on defense and just shut down the Chiefs. They are a legit good defensive team when healthy. They are also expected to get RB De'Von Achane back from injury, and they have arguably the best rushing attack in the NFL when he and Mostert are healthy together. The Dolphins are going to score at will on the Raiders, who are much worse defensively than they get credit for.
Prior to facing the Jets and Giants, the Raiders gave up 486 total yards to the Lions and then 30 points to Tyson Bageant and the Bears the game prior. The Dolphins are even more potent on offense than the Lions and will likely exceed 35 points and 500 total yards in this one. Las Vegas is going to have to unleash Aiden O'Connell in this one, and it's going to lead to mistakes from the rookie and easy points and short fields for the Dolphins.
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games with a total of 45.5 or higher. Tua is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more as a starting QB. The Raiders are 7-25 ATS in their last 32 games following an upset win as a home underdog. The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after covering the spread in two of their last three games. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-18-23||Heat -2.5 v. Bulls||97-102||Loss||-110||11 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -2.5
The Miami Heat are rolling right now with seven consecutive victories. They play a struggling Chicago Bulls team that is in the midst of a ton of trade rumors right now. The Bulls have lost three consecutive games, including back-to-back losses to Orlando at home.
The spot really favors the Heat tonight. They had yesterday off while the Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 97-103 loss to the Magic last night. This will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Bulls, which is one of the toughest spots a team can be in in the NBA. Bet the Heat Saturday.
|11-18-23||Texas v. Iowa State +9||Top||26-16||Loss||-110||144 h 47 m||Show|
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +9
The Texas Longhorns are starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff by winning the Big 12. Four of their last five games have been decided by 7 points or less with the lone exception behind their 35-6 home win over a BYU team that is the worst in the Big 12. It's also a BYU team that Iowa State just blasted 45-13 on the road to compare. This game will likely be decided by one score as well, so getting 9 points at home with the Cyclones is tremendous value.
After a 4-point loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, Texas then had a bye and wasn't impressive in a 31-24 win at Houston. That's a Houston team that's probably the 2nd-worst team in the Big 12. They also needed OT to beat Kansas State by 3 at home and escaped with a 29-26 win at TCU last week against their backup QB. Iowa State beat TCU 27-14 at home to compare.
Iowa State isn't scared of Texas. The Cyclones are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with their lone loss coming by 3 points as 16-point road dogs at Texas last year. Iowa State has outgained Texas in three of those four wins and by a wide margin, too. Iowa State is averaging 444.5 yards per game while holding Texas to 336.3 yards per game in those four meetings, outgaining Texas by 108.2 yards per game on average.
What makes Iowa State such an underrated team is a defense that is one of the best in the country, allowing 19.9 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season. This defense gives them a chance in any game. They have gotten their running game going in recent weeks rushing for 125 or more yards in five of their last six games, which has taken pressure off of freshman QB Rocco Becht, who is arguably the best freshman QB in the entire country. He has only thrown 7 interceptions this season while only taking 8 sacks despite starting all 10 games.
Texas just lost star RB Jonathan Brooks to a season-ending injury in that win over TCU last week. Brooks has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns this season while averaging 6.1 per carry. It's a huge drop off from him to backup RB C.J. Baxter, who has only rushed for 300 yards and 4.5 per carry this season. The Cyclones won't have to load the box to stop the run and can play the way they want to defensively. And they clearly have this Texas offense figured out in recent years, holding them to 21 or fewer points in each of the last four meetings, and 27 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings.
Steve Sarkisian is 0-6 ATS following two consecutive conference wins as the coach of Texas. Matt Campbell is 12-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State. I fully expect the Cyclones to win this game outright, so put part of your bet on the money line as well. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|11-18-23||Boise State v. Utah State +3||45-10||Loss||-105||93 h 51 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Utah State +3
The Utah State Aggies are one of the most underrated teams in college football right now. They are 4-2 SU in their last six games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only two losses coming against the two best teams in the Mountain West in San Jose State and Fresno State. They outgained Fresno State 568 to 461 to boot and should have won.
Utah State sits at 5-5 and highly motivated to get that 6th win and bowl eligibility. The Aggies have elite numbers for a team that is .500 on the season. They are outgaining opponents 448 to 402 or by 46 yards per game, and outgaining opponents 6.2 to 5.4 yards per play, or by an average of 0.8 yards per play. The Aggies are remarkably healthy with only two plays on the injury report and neither is important.
Boise State is also 5-5 but with worse numbers. The Broncos average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 6.2 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play. And another difference is that Boise State's injury report is much worse. They are without their top three receivers that were expected to start coming into the season. They could also be without RB Aston Jeanty, who has rushed for 921 yards and 11 TD on 5.9 per carry, while also ranking 2nd on the team in receiving with 30 receptions, 396 yards and 4 TD. He has missed the last two games and is questionable to return.
I had Utah State +16.5 at Boise State last season and it was arguably the worst bad beat of the entire season. Trailing 28-23 with 1:09 to go, the Aggies allowed a 91-yard TD Run to fall behind 35-23. We were still covering, but then a 48-yard INT return TD by Boise State with 31 seconds remaining turned a sure winner into an unfathomable 42-23 loser. As you can see, I'm still not over it. But Utah State is going to want revenge from that defeat as well, adding to their motivation. They actually outgained Boise State 468 to 428 in that game and have outgained them in each of the last two meetings.
Boise State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by 21 points or more. Utah State is 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS on the road this season. They are allowing 38.0 points per game, 459 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on the road this season. Boise State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a cover as a double-digit favorite. Wrong team favored here. Bet Utah State Saturday.
|11-18-23||Knicks -6.5 v. Hornets||122-108||Win||100||9 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -6.5
The New York Knicks have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the last two seasons. That has been the case again this season as they are 7-5 SU & 7-3-2 ATS in their 12 games. They have a great bench and guys like Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle just don't get the respect they deserve.
The Charlotte Hornets are a dumpster fire again this season and battling injuries. No starter other than La'Melo Ball scored more than 11 points last night in a 130-99 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. Now I expect them to get blown out by the Knicks, who are coming off a 120-99 road win at Washington last night.
The Knicks just beat the Hornets 129-107 as 10.5-point home favorites on Sunday. They will cover this short 6.5-point spread in the rematch as well with the Hornets showing nothing worth betting on of late.
The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. New York is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road favorite. The Knicks are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game. Bet the Knicks Saturday.
|11-18-23||Illinois v. Iowa OVER 30.5||Top||13-15||Loss||-110||90 h 38 m||Show|
20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Illinois/Iowa OVER 30.5
I'm definitely trying to catch the falling knife by backing an Iowa OVER but I feel like this is the perfect time to do it for a number of reasons. The Hawkeyes have gone under the total in five consecutive games coming into this one, but they have played four straight dead nuts under teams in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers. All four of those teams have great defenses and terrible offenses.
The two games prior they played two teams that have a pulse on offense and are poor defensively in Purdue and Michigan State and combined for 34 points with Purdue and 42 with Michigan State. But this game against Illinois is Iowa's first real Big Ten game against a dead nuts OVER team.
The Fighting Illini are coming off a 48-45 (OT) win over Indiana last week. They racked up 662 total yards on the Hoosiers while allowing 453 total yards. That was their 3rd straight OVER as they also combined for 53 points with Minnesota the game prior in a 27-26 victory. And the week prior they went for 46 combined points with Wisconsin, while also going for 51 combined points with Maryland the game before that.
In fact, Illinois and their opponents have gone for 40 or more combined points in nine of their 10 games this season, making for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 30.5-point total. The only game that finished below this 30.5-point total was their 20-7 loss to Nebraska, and Nebraska has an elite defense and no offense. It was also a very windy Friday night game where I was on the UNDER and Nebraska because of the weather conditions.
Iowa's offense came to life last week against a very good defense in Rutgers. They racked up 22 points and 402 total yards and should have scored more. But they took a knee inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds. Iowa is going to have to score to keep up with Illinois, because Illinois is going to score. They aren't going to just be able to sit on a lead like they have in recent weeks playing it close to the vest.
Iowa suffered a big blow in practice this week as defensive back Cooper DeJean suffered a leg injury and is now out for the season. He was their best player on either side of the football, and without him their defense takes a big hit in the secondary. DeJean has been so good that he was a semi-finalist for the Chuck Bednarik Award for the best defensive player in all of college football.
Illinois is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game. Iowa is 24-10 OVER in its last 34 home games following two or more consecutive unders. We can at least get to 17-14 for god's sake. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-18-23||Sam Houston State v. Western Kentucky OVER 52||Top||23-28||Loss||-110||90 h 37 m||Show|
20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State/WKU OVER 52
I like backing OVERS late in the college football season involving teams with little to play for. Well, here's a good example of that. Sam Houston State is 2-8 this season and won't be going to a bowl game. They will be excited about these last couple games in the first season as a FBS program.
Western Kentucky just lost to New Mexico State last week in a game that decided which one of those two teams would have a chance to square off against Liberty for the C-USA title. They play arguably the worst team in all of college football in Florida International next week if they need that game to get bowl eligible sitting at 5-5 this season. The Hilltoppers couldn't care less about this game, which has me leaning toward taking Sam Houston State as well. But I prefer the OVER instead.
Sam Houston State has gone through a change in philosophy here down the stretch becoming more pass-heavy and up-tempo. That has led to the OVER going 4-0 in their last four games overall. They combined for 60 points with Florida International, 71 points with UTEP, 45 points with FCS Kennesaw State and 69 points with Louisiana Tech. The Bearkats have passed for at least 225 yards in seven consecutive games now, and they have also rushed for at least 104 yards in four consecutive games.
The Bearkats should find plenty of success against a Western Kentucky defense that has been dreadful here down the stretch, especially in their last two home games. They allowed 42 points to Liberty in a game that saw 71 combined points. They allowed 38 points to New Mexico State in a game that saw 67 combined points. The Hilltoppers allow 447 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season now.
Sam Houston State allows 30.0 points per game, 426.5 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play in conference play this season. They'll be up against a high-powered, pass-happy Western Kentucky offense that puts up 36.4 points per game, 453 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play at home. The Hilltoppers are averaging 317 passing yards per game at home as well. This is a very low total for a game involving Western Kentucky. It's their lowest total of the entire season, so there's value on the OVER with that fact alone.
The weather looks great pretty much across the country this week so I wouldn't be looking to back too many unders. This one is no exception with the forecast calling for temps in the 50's, no rain and single-digits winds Saturday at Western Kentucky. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-18-23||Texas State v. Arkansas State +4||31-77||Win||100||89 h 4 m||Show|
15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +4
Arkansas State is quietly playing very well and knocking on the door of bowl eligibility. The Red Wolves have gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall including a 37-17 upset win as 7-point dogs to UL-Lafayette. They gave South Alabama all they wanted on the road last week in a 14-21 loss at 15-point dogs. They play Texas State this week at home and will be highly motivated to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility for the first time since 2019.
Texas State already clinched bowl eligibility two weeks ago with a 45-24 home win over Georgia Southern. They still had an outside shot of making the Sun Belt Championship Game heading into last week, but fell flat on their faces in a 31-23 loss at Coastal Carolina against a 3rd-string QB. So they have nothing to play for in these final two games now and I question their motivation. Their season is already considered a success no matter what happens because nobody expected them to make a bowl in GJ Kinne's first season on the job.
Kinne is a great offensive mind who took college football by storm by upsetting Baylor in the opener. But Baylor looks to be one of the worst teams in the Big 12, and that win doesn't look as good as it did at the time. Plus, teams are figuring out this Texas State offense now with plenty of film on it. Texas State has been held to 23 or fewer points in three of their last four games.
Arkansas State's resurgence is largely due to playing much better defensively. They have held five of their last six opponents to 28 points or fewer with the only exception behind the 37 they gave up to Troy, which is the favorite to win the Sun Belt. Texas State also gave up 31 to Troy and has allowed 31 or more points in four of their last six games overall. They have a dreadful defense and one that can't be trusted to lay points on the road here, especially against a team like Arkansas State that will be more motivated than they are.
Arkansas State is also playing with triple revenge here from three straight heartbreaking close losses to Texas State. They lost the last three meetings by 3, 2 and 2 points the last three seasons. A 3-point loss works for us if it happens again, but I fully expect the Red Wolves to win this game outright. Bet Arkansas State Saturday.
|11-18-23||Cincinnati +7 v. West Virginia||21-42||Loss||-115||89 h 37 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +7
Cincinnati is one of the best 3-7 teams I've ever seen. They have had terrible turnover luck this season coupled with red zone struggles that has them sitting at 3-7 when they should be .500 or better at least. Let's just look at the numbers to make my point.
Cincinnati is actually outgaining opponents by 78 yards per game. They average 444 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing 366 yards per game on defense. They have rushed for 224 yards per game and thrown for 221 yards per game, making them one of the rare teams to throw and pass for at least 200 yards per game this season.
West Virginia is 6-4 this season despite a worse statistical profile than Cincinnati. The Mountaineers average 412 yards per game on offense and give up 395 yards per game on defense, only outgaining opponents by 17 yards per game. We are getting the better team here catching a full touchdown in Cincinnati because of their misleading results up to this point.
I think this is a terrible spot for West Virginia. The Mountaineers clinched bowl eligibility by beating BYU at home. But last week they had a chance to get into Big 12 title contention if they could somehow upset Oklahoma. West Virginia got blasted 59-20 at Oklahoma and gave up 646 total yards to the Sooners. I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat as they don't have anything else to play for in these final two regular season games.
Scott Satterfield is 13-4 ATS in road games following a road game as a head coach. After picking up their first Big 12 win 24-14 at Houston last week, I think the Bearcats will be out to prove it was no fluke. They like how victory tastes and want to taste it again this week. Bet Cincinnati Saturday.
|11-18-23||Rutgers +20.5 v. Penn State||Top||6-27||Loss||-110||86 h 7 m||Show|
25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Rutgers +20.5
The Penn State Nittany Lions are in a terrible spot this week. They just had their dreams of winning the Big Ten Championship crushed last week with a 24-15 home loss to Michigan. They actually own the tiebreaker over both Michigan and Ohio State had they won that game, so they let a golden opportunity slip away. I don't expect them to show up at all this week.
James Franklin just fired his offensive coordinator, making a rash decision not wanting to put any of the blame on himself. And we've seen Franklin's teams really falter coming off a loss. Franklin is 9-23 ATS off a loss at Penn State, including 2-9 ATS off a loss when listed as a double-digit favorite. Asking Penn State to beat Rutgers by three touchdowns or more to beat us is asking too much.
I think we are getting more points than we should here because Rutgers is coming off a 22-0 shutout loss at Iowa. But that was a big sandwich and flat spot for Rutgers. They had their chances to upset Ohio State the previous week, and they had this huge game against Penn State on deck this week. They weren't fully focused against Iowa, while the Hawkeyes were fully focused trying to win a Big Ten West title.
Rutgers will fire back this week and play as well as they did against Ohio State two weeks ago. The Scarlet Knights actually outgained the Buckeyes 361 to 328, or by 31 total yards in that misleading 35-16 loss. The problem was settling for field goals in the red zone while the Buckeyes converted their opportunities into touchdowns. They Scarlet Knights kicked three field goals of 20, 21 and 22 yards and also had their next trip inside the 10 result in a 93-yard INT return TD for Ohio State. If they can play with Ohio State, they can certainly play with Penn State.
Penn State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games following a conference home loss. Greg Schiano is 18-4 ATS in road games after losing two of his last three games as a head coach. The spot really favors the Scarlet Knights in this one and it's not being factored into the line as much as it should be. Bet Rutgers Saturday.
|11-17-23||Lakers v. Blazers UNDER 223.5||Top||107-95||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Blazers UNDER 223.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are without their top three guards in Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson and Malcolm Brogdon. They are a dead nuts UNDER team as a result, and they were even with these guys healthy with the way they are playing.
The Blazers rank 24th in the NBA in pace, dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency. They are putting in the effort defensively to try and stay competitive, but they just don't get anything easy on the offensive end. They have been held to 95 points by the Cavaliers and 99 points by the Jazz in their last two games coming in.
The Lakers rank in the middle of the pack (14th) in pace and are 21st in offensive efficiency. They should bring a big defensive effort after getting beat by the Kings last time out. I think this game will be played at a snail's pace, the defense will be there, and both teams will struggle to score.
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. These teams just played less than a week ago on November 12th with the Lakers beating the Blazers 116-110 for 226 combined points and a total of 219.5. The Blazers shot 50% and the Lakers shot 48.8%, and both are unsustainable in the rematch. Now the total has been raised up to 223.5 for the rematch, so there's value with the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-17-23||South Florida +16 v. UTSA||Top||21-49||Loss||-110||97 h 23 m||Show|
20* South Florida/UTSA ESPN 2 No-Brainer on South Florida +16
This game means nothing to UTSA. Their game against Tulane next week is all that matters. The winner of that game will make the C-USA Championship Game. As a result, I think this is a flat spot and a lookahead spot for the Roadrunners that will assure that they won't bring their best effort Friday night, and that's going to make it tough for them to cover this 16-point spread when they aren't motivated to do so.
UTSA is coming off a 34-14 win over Rice last week that wasn't impressive at all when you consider Rice was missing starting QB JT Daniels. They barely beat North Texas 37-29 the week prior and struggled to put away ECU 41-27 at home the week prior. Neither of those teams are as good as South Florida, so I think the Bulls can hang here.
South Florida sits at 5-5 and motivated to get one more win for bowl eligibility and will clearly be the more motivated team tonight. They beat Temple 27-23 last week and that's a Temple team that just got back starting QB EJ Warner, who means everything to them. The Bulls gave Memphis all they could handle in a 59-50 road loss as 12.5-point dogs the game prior. That Memphis team is also battling to make the C-USA Championship game.
South Florida will be in this game for four quarters tonight due to an offense that is absolutely electric. The Bulls put up 30.1 points per game and 453.4 yards per game on the season and that includes a game in the slog against Alabama in which they were held to 3 points but played the Crimson Tide tough in a 17-3 defeat. The Bulls are scoring 35.3 points per game and averaging 487.5 yards per game and 6.2 per play in conference play. They are also scoring 35.4 points per game, averaging 498 yards per game and 5.8 per play on the road this season.
Jeff Traylor is 1-8 ATS in home games after outgaining their previous opponent by 125 or more total yards as the coach of UTSA. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven dome games. The Roadrunners are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after outrushing their opponent by 125 or more yards last game. Bet South Florida Friday.
|11-17-23||Arkansas State v. Iowa -20||74-88||Loss||-110||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Iowa -20
The Iowa Hawkeyes are 2-1 ATS against the closing line but 3-0 ATS as long as you didn't wait til close to bet them. They beat North Dakota 110-68 as 20.5-point favorites, beat Alabama State 98-67 as closing 31.5-point favorites in the game that you win at all other numbers, and only lost 92-84 as 12-point road dogs at Creighton.
Death, taxes and betting on Iowa at home. Fran McCaffery is 101-63 ATS as a home favorite or PK as the coach of Iowa. McCaffery is 46-21 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. Iowa is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points.
Arkansas State lost 105-76 at Wisconsin in the opener and Iowa is better than Wisconsin. If they can lose by 29 to the Badgers and give up 105 points to a team not known for offense, you can imagine what they'll give up against Iowa today. The Red Wolves allow 90.7 points per game and 55.1% shooting to their opponents while ranking 290th in adjusted defense this season.
The Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-point shots per game. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game. Bet Iowa Friday.
|11-17-23||Arkansas State v. Iowa OVER 172.5||74-88||Loss||-110||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Arkansas State/Iowa OVER 172.5
Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Arkansas State Red Wolves visit the Iowa Hawkeyes. I fully expect Iowa to top 100 points in this one to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 172.5 ticket.
Iowa is 3-0 OVER in their three games this season. They beat North Dakota 110-68 for 178 combined points, beat Alabama State 98-67 for 165 combined points and beat lost 92-84 at Creighton for 176 combined points. Iowa ranks 9th in adjusted tempo and 7th in offensive efficiency while playing little defense.
Speaking of playing little defense, Arkansas State lost 105-76 at Wisconsin for 181 combined points in the opener. That's a Wisconsin team known for playing slow and struggling on offense. They also lost 81-76 at Bowling Green for 156 combined points and beat Alcorn State 100-86 for 186 combined points. The Red Wolves rank 290th in adjusted defense and 45th in average length of offensive possessions. They like to get it up quick like the Hawkeyes.
Iowa is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games following a road game. The Hawkeyes are 14-3 OVER in their last 17 games against a team with a losing record. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-17-23||Kings -8.5 v. Spurs||Top||129-120||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -8.5
The Sacramento Kings have been rolling since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury as he means everything to this team. In the two games back they crushed Cleveland 132-120 as 1-point home underdogs and upset the Lakers 125-110 as 1-point road dogs. Now they take on the hapless San Antonio Spurs tonight, and another double-digit blowout in their favor is going to be the result.
The Spurs are 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their last five losses coming by an average of 22.0 points per game. Injuries have set them back as they are without both Devin Vassell and Tre Jones. Plus, they just don't play any defense and simply don't have much talent aside from Wembenyana.
The Kings are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Spurs with their last three wins all coming by double-digits. San Antonio is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games following four or more consecutive ATS losses. Sacramento is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher. Bet the Kings Friday.
|11-17-23||Butler +10 v. Michigan State||54-74||Loss||-105||7 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Butler +10
Thad Matta clearly has his players in place this season to make the Butler Bulldogs a real threat in the Big East. Butler is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season beating Eastern Michigan 94-55 as 16-point favorites, SE Missouri State 91-56 as 20-point favorites and East Tennessee State 81-47 as 17-point favorites. The Bulldogs are grossly undervalued covering the spread by a combined 55 points in those first three games and remain undervalued as 10-point dogs to Michigan State tonight.
Michigan State is grossly overvalued. The Spartans are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season losing outright 76-79 as 16.5-point favorites to James Madison, only beating Southern Indiana 74-51 as 31.5-point favorites and losing to Duke 74-65 on a neutral as 4-point dogs. The Spartans have failed to cover those three spreads by a combined 33 points. Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. Bet Butler Friday.
|11-16-23||Thunder -2.5 v. Warriors||Top||128-109||Win||100||20 h 29 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5
The Golden State Warriors are going to be without their two most important players tonight. Stephen Curry (30.7 PPG) is what keeps the Warriors a contender in the West. Well, they are going to be without him tonight. They will also be without Draymond Green, who is their best defender and important in screen and rolls with Curry and as a passer. They are one of the worst teams in the NBA without these two.
I think the Warriors are getting too much respect here because they were able to hang with the Timberwolves in a 3-point loss without these two in their last game. That was clearly a letdown spot for the Timberwolves after beating the Warriors two days earlier, and knowing they didn't have to face Curry in the rematch. Then Green and Thompson got tossed right away and Minnesota simply took their foot off the gas.
The Oklahoma City Thunder won't make the same mistake tonight. They are in a great spot here as they are fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season. They are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They also want revenge from a 141-139 home loss to the Warriors as 6-point dogs on November 3rd just two weeks ago. Well, they didn't have their star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for that game, while the Warriors were fully healthy and they still only lost by 2 on a buzzer-beater by the Warriors.
This game will also be on National TV so we'll get a fully-focused effort from the Thunder. Oklahoma City is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKC) - off a blowout home win by 20 points or more, a good team winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Thunder Thursday.
|11-16-23||Missouri v. Minnesota +2||70-68||Push||0||11 h 53 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +2
Minnesota has been impressive thus far beating Bethune-Cookman 80-60 as 17.5-point favorites and crushing UTSA 102-76 as 12-point favorites. They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS covering the spread by a combined 16.5 points in their first two games, so they are undervalued.
Missouri is grossly overvalued thus far. The Tigers are 2-1 SU by 0-3 ATS this season. They failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites in a 22-point win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, lost outright as 3-point favorites by 15 at home to Memphis, and only beat SIU-Edwardsville by 18 as 18.5-point favorites. They have failed to cover the spread in those three games by a combined 24 points.
Minnesota four-star freshman Cam Christie made his debut against UTSA and scored 18 points, which was the most points for a true freshman in his Golden Gophers debut since Kris Humphries in 2003. Dawson Garcia averaged 15.6 PPG and 6.6 RPG last season and has upped his game thus far, averaging 22.5 PPG and 10.0 RPG through two games. Isaiah Ihnen is averaging 14.0 PPG and 5.0 RPG after sitting out the past two seasons, so the Gophers are glad to have him back.
Missouri lost a ton of talent from the surprise team that made the NCAA Tournament last season in Dennis Gates' first year on the job. They lost Kobe Brown to the NBA and bring back just one full-time starter. It's no wonder they are struggling to meet expectations in the early going, especially with that 15-point home loss to Memphis being extra alarming. Bet Minnesota Thursday.
|11-16-23||Bengals v. Ravens -3||Top||20-34||Win||100||105 h 49 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore -3
I was able to grab an early -3 number on the Baltimore Ravens expecting this line to move up. They have taken money every week and for good reason. They are arguably the best team in the entire NFL when you look at their numbers. I would still play the Ravens as a 20* up to -4.
Baltimore is averaging 27.0 points per game, 362.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing 15.7 points pre game, 273.6 yards per game and 4.4 per play on defense. They are outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game and outgaining them by 89 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play, which is the best YPP differential in the NFL.
Let's compare those numbers to Cincinnati. The Bengals are scoring 20.2 points per game, averaging 301.7 yards per game and 5.1 per play on offense while allowing 21.3 points per game, 383.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on defense. They are getting outscored by 1.1 points per game, which is very fortunate when you consider they are getting outgained by 82 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play. That's one of the worst YPP differentials in the NFL.
While the Bengals have shown some life offensively in recent weeks, their defense is absolutely atrocious this season and the biggest reason they aren't as good as they have been the past couple seasons. The Bengals allowed 544 total yards to the Texans last week with 188 on the ground to a backup RB and 356 through the air.
Making matters worse for the Bengals right now is injuries to key players. They just lost DE Sam Hubbard to an ankle injury in that loss to Houston and they were already without WR Tee Higgins, who is going to be out again Thursday on a short week. DE Trey Hendrickson suffered a hyperextended knee on the final play against Houston, and he is very questionable to play and won't be 100% if he does.
While Cincinnati was fortunate to even have a chance to win against Houston last week, Baltimore is going to be pissed off after blowing a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Browns. Lamar Jackson had a pass tipped that was returned for a TD, so it was very fluky. Give Cleveland and Deshaun Watson credit for what they were able to do in coming back. I think the Ravens were caught looking ahead to this game.
Amazingly, each of Baltimore's last seven losses with Lamar Jackson on the field, they had a 75% chance of winning or better in the 4th quarter. That's how close they have been to absolute perfection over the last two seasons. They will be pissed off after blowing another one, and they haven't forgotten that the Bengals knocked them out of the playoffs last year, albeit without Lamar Jackson.
The Ravens got their initial revenge with a 27-24 road win as 3-point underdogs at Cincinnati in their first meeting this season on September 17th. The Ravens were banged up back then and missing several key players that has since returned. That was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. Baltimore had a 415 to 282 advantage in total yards, but the Bengals got a long punt return TD from Charlie Jones that kept them closer than they deserved to be. Not only did the Ravens lose in the playoffs to the Bengals, they also lost in Week 18 to them. They would love to pay back that double-revenge by winning both regular season meetings this season and crushing Cincinnati's playoff hopes.
Plays against road teams (Cincinnati) - with a pathetic defense that allows 6.0 or more yards per play, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Finally, the Bengals are 1-23 SU in their last 24 road games at night. They have lost 13 consecutive road night games with their last win coming at Philadelphia in 2012. Bet the Ravens Thursday.
|11-15-23||Kings +108 v. Lakers||125-110||Win||108||10 h 35 m||Show|
15* Kings/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML +108
The Sacramento Kings just got De'Aaron Fox back from injury last time out. He put his stamp on the game right away with 28 points in a 132-120 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday. Now the Kings will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and are primed for a big effort against the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.
This is a tough spot for the Lakers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the lowly Memphis Grizzlies last night. The Lakers will also be playing their 7th game in 12 days and this is a big step up in class for them after beating the Grizzlies and Blazers at home in their last two games.
The Kings simply own the Lakers going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings including outright wins in their last two trips to Los Angeles. It will be more of the same tonight given the rest advantage for Sacramento in a game I expect them to win outright. Bet the Kings on the Money Line Wednesday.
|11-15-23||Georgetown v. Rutgers UNDER 134||60-71||Win||100||8 h 59 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown/Rutgers UNDER 134
Rutgers remains a dead nuts UNDER team with head coach Steve Pikiell at the helm. Through three games, the Scarlet Knights rank 281st in adjusted tempo, 150th in adjusted offense and 36th in adjusted defense. They combined for just 129 points with Princeton, 114 points with Boson U and 123 points with Bryant. This total of 134 has been set too high tonight.
Ed Cooley is the new head coach at Georgetown and he prefers to play slower and rely on defense similar to Pikiell. He clearly has his hands full with this team after a 67-68 upset loss to Holy Cross as 17.5-point favorites. Georgetown ranks 284th in adjusted tempo this season, playing even slower than Rutgers has thus far. Points will be at a premium tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-15-23||Knicks -105 v. Hawks||Top||116-114||Win||100||7 h 29 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks PK
This is a tough spot for the Atlanta Hawks. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 126-120 win at Detroit against the short-handed Pistons last night. Four of five starters played at least 34 minutes in that game to put away the Pistons late. They won't have much left in the tank for the Knicks tonight.
The Knicks had yesterday off following their loss in Boston on Monday. They will be the fresher team for this one, and I believe they are the better team this season. The Knicks have had the Hawks' number in recent meetings going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the least three meetings with road wins by 6 and 21 points as well as a home win by 24. They clearly have the Hawks figured out.
Atlanta is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 games following a win by 6 points or less. New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 100 points or fewer. The Knicks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days. Bet the Knicks Wednesday.