20* Bills/Rams MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles -2.5

The Rams having a 2-2 record at .500 this season has them grossly undervalued.  They came into the season as Super Bowl favorites, and there's nothing I've seen in the number that would suggest they shouldn't still be the favorite despite the 2-2 record.  They are an elite team, and it will show tonight against a perceived elite team in the Bills that aren't as good as their 3-1 record.

The Rams have outgained their last three opponents by 767 net yards, which is the 5th-highest mark in NFL history.  They rank 1st in total defense at 247.5 yards per game and 1st at 4.3 yard per play allowed.  They rank 2nd in total offense at 417 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 175.5 yards per game and 1.9 yards per play on the season, which are the best marks in the NFL.  They are elite, no question about it.

They have been doing this despite being without Puka Nacua for two games and Aaron Donald for two games, plus Myles Garrett for three games.  They have both Nacua and Donald back healthy this week.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, and in their current state the best team in the NFL in my opinion.

The Bills have an elite offense with Josh Allen.  But they are without Josh Palmer and Tyrell Shavers, and fellow WR DJ Moore is questionable to play tonight.  Allen was noticeably limping after the 29-26 home loss to the Patriots last week in which they were outgained by 55 yards.  They were held to their fewer rushing yards (91) in two years by the Patriots, who were without several key defenders.  Allen didn't want to run like he usually does.  They only outgained the Chargers by 2 yards the week prior and were life and death with them, and the Chargers are 0-5 this season.

But the biggest concern for the Bills is their defense, which allowed 405 total yards to a Patriots team that was without three of their top four receivers.  Drake Maye had been terrible leading up to that game.  This is a bad, bad Bills defense and it's by far the worst unit on the field in this game.  They will be without their best interior defender for this game with DE Ed Oliver out.  CB Dee Alford is questionable, and a couple depth pieces in the secondary will be out.  The Rams will be able to name their number on this Buffalo defense, which also allowed 31 points to Houston, 31 to Detroit and then 29 to New England.  Bet the Rams Monday.

20* Bills/Rams MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 53.5

The Buffalo Bills are a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense but one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They have gone 3-1 OVER in all games this season going for 67 combined points with the Texans, 72 with the Lions and 55 with the Patriots.  This total of 53.5 is too short for a game involving the Bills right now.

The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense at 31.8 points per game and 2nd at 6.7 yards per play.  But they rank 25th in scoring defense allowing 26.8 points per game and 25th in total defense at 372.2 yards per game.  Most concerning was giving up 29 points and 405 total yards to the Patriots last week, who were without three of their top four receivers.  But they also allowed 31 points to the Texans and 31 to the Lions.

The Rams will be far and away the best offense they have faced this season.  The Rams rank 2nd in total offense at 417 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yard per play.  The Rams now have Puka Nacua back on offense and are fully healthy.  They are going to hang a big number on this suspect Bills defense to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 53.5 ticket.  They will be without their best interior defender for this game with DE Ed Oliver out.  CB Dee Alford is questionable, and a couple depth pieces in the secondary will be out.

The Rams have benefited defensively from getting to face three poor offenses in the Eagles, the Broncos and the Giants the last three week.  That was the game the Giants lost Jaxson Dart early and had to go with Jameis Winston the rest of the way.  The Eagles were without all of their top playmakers including Smith and Barkley, and the Broncos just look broken offensively but still scored 30 points on the Rams.  This Buffalo offense is the best unit the Rams will have faced since allowing 27 points to the 49ers.

The Rams will easily get into the 30's in this game and I wouldn't be surprised if they get into the 40's.  The Bills will get into the upper-20's if not the 30's as well.  The last time these teams played the Rams won 44-42 at home in 2024 for 86 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Dodgers/Brewers NLCS ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 7

Yoshinobu Yamamoto went 5-1 with a 1.45 ERA in the playoffs last season allowing just 6 earned runs in 37 1/3 innings.  Yamamoto fired 7 innings of one-run ball against the Braves in his lone postseason start last series.  He has been a killer for the Dodgers and far and away their best starter in the postseason.

Yamamoto has been particularly good on the road this season going 9-3 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 13 starts away from home.  He has owned the Brewers, going 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in four career starts against them.  In his last three starts against Milwaukee alone, Yamamoto has allowed 3 earned runs in 22 innings for a minuscule 1.23 ERA.  He will shut down the Brewers tonight.

Logan Henderson is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 11-3 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 6-0 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in nine home starts, allowing just 10 earned runs in 49 innings.  He has owned the Dodgers as well, going 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in two career starts against them.  Both starts came this season where Henderson allowed just one earned run and 9 base runners in 12 innings.

The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between the Dodgers and Brewers with 6 or fewer combined runs in nine of those 12 meetings.  This total of 7 is too high tonight.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Monday.

20* Ravens/Falcons NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +3

I grabbed the Falcons +3 as soon as the lines came out after they beat the Saints on Monday Night Football.  I expected them to take money and for Lamar Jackson to eventually be ruled out, and that's precisely what happened.  This is an example of why it's great to have a long-term package because you get the plays as soon as I release them.  I would still play the Falcons up to -3 tonight.

I was on the Falcons +5.5 against the Packers two weeks ago in an easy 35-14 victory.  I stated that Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush was not being factored into the line enough.  I stated the same thing and backed them again at +3 against the Saints, and they proceeded to deliver with a 45-24 victory.  I think I was right on this call and it has proven to be the case, and I'm riding it again this week.

Penix Jr. is completing 61% of his passes for 3,236 yards with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers two weeks ago.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  He and backup Brian Robinson combined for over 200 rushing yards and 5 TD in their 45-24 win over the Saints last week.  This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.  They have put up 80 points and 918 total yards on offense the last two weeks combined.

This Atlanta defense is better than it gets credit for, too.  Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich lost his wife in the offseason and this defense has rallied around him.  Despite some injuries, the Falcons have had one of the best pressure rates in the NFL.  Both Tyler Shough and Jordan Love were under duress for the majority of the games.

The Ravens will go with backup QB Tyler Huntley, and the drop off from Lamar Jackson to him is one of the biggest in the NFL.  He is capable of managing an offense, but the Ravens will be much less explosive than they have been.  Also, they are down to a 3rd-string center due to injuries, which is why they traded with the Eagles for a center last week, but Cam Jurgens is in concussion protocol and will not play.  

The Ravens will also be without their best pass rusher on defense in LB Trey Hendrickson, who they gave a pile of money in the offseason.  Their defense has been sub-par this season allowing 24.0 points per game.  They allowed 31 points to the Cowboys in Brazil, and the Falcons have a similarly explosive offense.  I'm not worried about the Falcons being on a short week after playing on MNF because they played the Thursday prior and had 3 extra days off as a result.  Plus, they blew out their last two opponents and were able to rest starters late.  

The Ravens are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Kevin Stefanski is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home in primetime as a head coach since 2021.  The Ravens are 82-37 SU with Lamar Jackson, and 10-17 SU with all other QB's starting in his career.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* Ravens/Falcons NBC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 43.5

Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush is not being factored into these lines enough.  Penix Jr. is completing 61% of his passes for 3,236 yards with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers two weeks ago.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  He and backup Brian Robinson combined for over 200 rushing yards and 5 TD in their 45-24 win over the Saints last week.  This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.  They have put up 80 points and 918 total yards on offense the last two weeks combined.

The Falcons will continue to thrive offensively at home this week against a mediocre Baltimore defense that is allowing 24.0 points per game this season.  The Ravens allowed 31 points to the Cowboys in Brazil two weeks ago and it should have been more as the Cowboys failed from the 1-yard line at the end.  And they are without arguably their most important defensive player in LB Trey Hendrickson, their best pass rusher who will be out again this week.

This total is only being set this low because Lamar Jackson is out for the Ravens, otherwise this total would be in the 50's.  That's a big adjustment down for backup QB Tyler Huntley, who has proven he can lead this offense for years.  I like the fact that WR Zay Flowers is back healthy, and he is one of the most explosive players in the NFL.  Short passes to him can turn into explosives in a hurry and they will.  The Ravens are scoring 29.0 points per game, averaging 395.0 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.

This Atlanta defense has held up reasonably well despite some injuries, but the injuries continue to pile up and have gotten even worse this week.  They are allowing 23.0 points per game this season.  But they lost arguably their best pass rusher in LB Da'Darius Smith to a concussion last week and he has been ruled out.  They are without their best CB in AJ Terrell.  Fellow starting LB's Divine Deablo and Samson Ebukam are questionable for this one as well.  

I expect the Falcons to get into the 30's and for the Ravens to be able to do enough against this banged up Atlanta D to easily get the OVER 43.5 here, which is just below a big key number of 44.  This game will be played on a fast track indoors in Atlanta, too.  Kevin Stefanski is 6-0 OVER in primetime games over the last four seasons, going over the total by an average of 16.2 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Lions/Cardinals OVER 53.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-0 OVER in all games this season going for 61 combined points with the Saints, 72 with the Bills, 55 with the Jets and 58 with the Panthers, topping this 53.5-point total every week.

The Lions are fully health on offense and thriving.  They are 4th in scoring offense at 29.8 points per game, 6th in total offense at 389.2 yards per game and 9th at 6.0 yards per play.  And we are getting Jared Goff indoors here which is where he really shines.

But the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL again this season.  They rank 31st in scoring defense at 31.8 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 423.8 yards per game and 29th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without five key players in the secondary in Branch, Joseph, Harper, Maddox and Ya-Sin and teams have been able to throw all over them.

Jacoby Brissett and this Arizona offense have shown they can keep up in a shootout.  They did so the last two weeks with a 36-30 loss to the 49ers that saw 66 combined points, and a 36-24 loss to the Giants that saw 60 combined points.  Both games were outdoors, too.  Now Brissett and company are back in a dome and he will have his full compliment of weapons available outside the mystery of Marvin Harrison Jr, who has been unproductive this season anyway.  They might be better off getting the distraction that comes with him off the field.

This Arizona defense is trash again this season.  The Cardinals rank 29th in scoring defense at 29.2 points per game, 24th at 351.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.4 yards per play.  They have some key injuries in the secondary without CB Will Johnson and S Andrew Wingard, plus DT Walter Nolen is questionable.  They have allowed 30-plus points in three consecutive weeks with two of those coming against backup QB's in Drew Lock of the Seahawks and Jameis Winson of the Giants.  I expect them to give up 30-plus again to the Lions, but to also be able to keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers ML -135

I love the spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They are coming off a tough loss to Cleveland last Thursday on the road.  Sadly, they always lose to the Browns on the road, and the Browns are certainly better than most give them credit for.  But now the Steelers are motivated off that loss, plus on extra rest after playing last Thursday which has given them more time to get healthy.

The Colts are traveling back from London so it will be a short week for them.  They beat the Commanders 30-13 in one of the most misleading finals of the season.  The Commanders lost QB Marcus Mariota in that game or it would have been a different story, instead having to turn to a rookie.  Still, the Commanders outgained the Colts by 60 yards and 1.4 yards per play for the game.  The Colts were held to a putrid 257 yards and 4.0 yards per play.

In fact, the Colts are very close to being 0-4 instead of 2-2.  They escaped with a last-second home win over the Texans the week prior, and they benefited from Washington being down to a 3rd-string QB.  In their two losses, they were dominated getting outgained by 196 yards by the Chiefs and 255 yards by the Ravens.  They have some of the worst numbers in the NFL overall.

The Colts are broken offensively averaging just 284.3 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  They are poor defensively, allowing 392.3 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play.  They are getting outgained by 108 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play.  Daniel Jones is a shell of his former self coming back from injury not using his legs at all with just 21 rushing yards on the season.  His weapons leave a lot to be desired without Alec Pierce, Ashton Dullin and Darius Slayton due to injury, while Keenan Allen is playing through injury.  The defense is without DE Key, LB Carlies and CB Ward is questionable.  CB Gardner has been one of the worst at his position in the league after the blockbuster trade for him last season.

The Steelers are 2-0 at home this season beating the Bengals and Falcons.  In their last two games, their offense has really started to show what it is capable of and will likely be the best unit on the field.  They had 30 points, 411 yards and 7.2 yards per play against the Bengals and 24 points, 361 yards and 6.1 yards per play agains the Browns.  This is a usual solid Pittsburgh defense holding opponents to 21.8 points per game on the season.

The Steelers are 17-1 SU in their last 18 home meetings with the Colts.  The only QB to win in Pittsburgh was Peyton Manning.  McCarthy and Rodgers as a duo are 44-21-3 ATS at home since 2010.  Daniel Jones is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in his career against the Steelers.  Bet the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bengals/Dolphins UNDER 44

The Miami Dolphins are a dead nuts UNDER team. They have the worst offense in the NFL scoring just 11.5 points per game.  But their defense is an underrated unit that plays as hard as anyone.  They held the Chiefs to 24 points two weeks ago and the Vikings to 15 points last week.  I think they can hold the Bengals in check enough to keep this UNDER the total.

The Bengals have struggled on offense this season and were just held to 17 points by the Jaguars last week.  A big reason for the struggles was a concussion suffered by Jamar Chase, and then fellow WR Tee Higgins leaving late with an adductor injury.  Both are expected to play today but will likely be limited.  Fellow WR Colbie Young is questionable, and WR Andrei Iosivas is on IR.  Burrow is seriously lacking weapons heading into this one.

But why I'm excited about the Bengals this season is the fact that it looks like they have their best defense in years with the upgrades they made in the offseason, including bringing in DT Dexter Lawrence.  They are allowing 21.3 points per game through four games.  I expect them to come close to shutting out the Dolphins.

The Malik Willis contract looks terrible now, but in his defense he has no weapons to work with.  The Dolphins lost their star RB Achane a few weeks ago to a season-ending injury.  Now their best WR in Caleb Douglas is out this week.  The Dolphins have to try and go more ball control offense and eat up the playclock to be competitive, which is something defensive-minded head coach Jeff Hafley is familiar with.  

It kept them competitive in a 24-10 loss and 34 combined points with the Chiefs two weeks ago, and in a 15-10 loss and 25 combined points with the Vikings last week.  It will be a similar script this week against the Bengals, who will likely be in for more of a battle than they bargained for with their limitations on offense right now due to injury.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* MLB Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on White Sox/Guardians OVER 7

The Chicago White Sox are a perfect 22-0 OVER in all games this season when entering on exactly one day of rest.  They are an elite offensive team scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.

The Cleveland Guardians have gotten their bats going the last two games.  They scored 9 runs in Game 3 and 9 runs again in Game 4.  They are swing with confidence, and both offenses should have their way again tonight.

I like the fact that Gavin Williams pitched in Game 4 for the Guardians and closed out the 9th inning.  This will be the 3rd time the White Sox have seen Williams this series, and he cannot be expected to go deep into this game now.  And the Guardians also burnt up all their best relievers in Game 4, so though they will be available, they won't be as effective.

The White Sox will go with Sean Burke before turning it over to a taxed bullpen that has been ineffective the last two games.  The Guardians will get their runs as well off Burke and this Chicago bullpen.

Finally, the forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7 ticket.  There will be 12-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Cleveland tonight.  This total just can't be this low with these two offenses up against these two taxed staffs with the wind blowing out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* White Sox/Guardians ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +124

The road team is 6-0 in all Chicago postseason games this season.  The White Sox are 4-0 on the road and 0-2 at home.  They won't be intimidated having to go on the road and win a Game 5, and I like how this game sets up for them from a pitching perspective.

Gavin Williams pitched in Game 4 for the Guardians and closed out the 9th inning.  This will be the 3rd time the White Sox have seen Williams this series, and he cannot be expected to go deep into this game now.  And the Guardians also burnt up all their best relievers in Game 4, so though they will be available, they won't be as effective.  Closer Cade Smith was used in the last two games and received treatment at the park Friday and may not be available.

Williams is 1-2 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in eight career starts against the White Sox.  He is 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in five career home starts against them, allowing 13 earned runs and 35 base runners in 23 2/3 innings.

The White Sox get to go with their best starting in Sean Burke and he is rested.  Burke has been brilliant against the Guardians this season, going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA in 22 2/3 innings.  He has won both of his starts in Cleveland this season while allowing just one earned run in 10 1/3 innings.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

20* LSU/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 52

Lane Kiffin has this LSU offense thriving this season.  The Tigers rank 25th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.5 seconds.  They go even faster in competitive games like this one is expected to be with a single-digit spread.  The Tigers are averaging 43.6 points per game, 547.8 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play this season.

Kentucky has an offensive-minded head coach this season in former Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein.  Stein has the Wildcats averaging 34.6 points per game, 416.8 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play despite a pretty tough schedule to this point.  The OVER is 4-1 in Kentucky's five games this season with 52 or more combined points in all five games.  This total of 52 is pretty short for a game involving Kentucky.

It's also short for a game involving LSU, which is 3-2 OVER in all games this season with 58 or more combined points in four of those five games.  The lone exception was a 35-6 home win over Texas A&M in which they took their foot off the gas late in a scoreless 4th quarter.  Both offenses will keep coming for four quarters in this one and it should easily top this 52-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on LSU -7.5

Lane Kiffin has this LSU offense thriving this season.  The Tigers rank 25th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.5 seconds.  They go even faster in competitive games like this one is expected to be with a single-digit spread.  The Tigers are averaging 43.6 points per game, 547.8 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play this season.

But the best unit on the field may just bet this LSU defense, which allows 15.2 points per game, 220.8 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  I think the fact that LSU lost at Ole Miss has them undervalued.  That was the National Championship Game for Ole Miss as they wanted revenge.  How LSU has responded since has been very telling.

LSU went on to beat Texas A&M 35-6 at home the next week handing the Aggies their worst loss of the season.  And last week they crushed McNeese State 63-14.  That game allowed their starters to rest in the 2H and stay fresh for this game against Kentucky this week.  Also, LSU needs style points to try and make the 12-team playoff from here on out, which works in our favor here.

Kentucky is an extremely tired team that won't have much left in the tank for LSU.  After a 45-17 home loss to Alabama, the Wildcats went on the road and upset Texas A&M 31-21 to give them a common opponent.  LSU outgained Texas A&M by 309 yards while Kentucky was actually outgained by Texas A&M by 15 yards.

Two weeks ago Kentucky came out flat and only led South Alabama 24-21 at halftime.  They outscored them 21-0 in the 2H in a misleading 24-point win.  South Alabama was also playing with a backup QB that game.  And last week, Kentucky escaped with a 35-34 (OT) win at South Carolina despite getting outgained by 64 yards.  That effort will have taken a lot out of them, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for LSU this week.

Alabama crushed Kentucky 45-17 in Lexington.  Alabama is easily a Top 5 team in the country, and I really think LSU isn't far behind, and as the season plays out they could overtake Alabama.  I think we see a similar beat down here with LSU winning by double-digits at minimum.

There will be some weather in this game so the team that runs the football better will have the most success.  That will clearly be LSU.  Dual-threat QB Sam Leavitt has rushed for 220 yards and 6 TD this season.  He helps lead a LSU rushing attack that averages 237.8 rushing yards per game this season.  LSU's defense is elite against the run, allowing just 58.6 rushing yards per game and 2.0 per carry.  Kentucky allowed 232 rushing yards to South Carolina, 187 to Texas A&M and 155 to Alabama.  Bet LSU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Duke/Georgia Tech UNDER 48.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 48.5 ticket between Duke and Georgia Tech.  There is an 80% chance of rain throughout and 15-20 MPH sustained winds.  That's going to make it very difficult to pass the ball and for both kicking games.  This will be a low-scoring, defensive battle as a result.

Both teams have defensive-minded head coaches, too.  Manny Diaz has been winning at Duke with defense.  And this Duke defense has been dynamite this season, allowing just 11.0 points per game, 261.8 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Georgia Tech wants to run the ball, and Duke won't allow it giving up just 63.8 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry this season.

The loss of offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner to Florida has been felt, as has the loss of QB Haynes King.  The Yellow Jackets are only scoring 27.0 points per game, averaging 370 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They are only rushing for 126.3 yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season.  Nothing will come easy for them against Duke.

The Yellow Jackets have a respectable defense allowing 26.0 points per game and 5.5 per play.  They allow 4.3 yards per carry on the ground.  Duke averages 42 rush attempts per game compared by 27 pass attempts.  The Blue Devils want to run the ball too, so the clock will be constantly moving, especially given the weather conditions.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Duke and Georgia Tech.  We've seen 45 or fewer combined points in each of the last three meetings, and that's even with one OT game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +14

Kent State has played well outside of blowout losses to South Carolina and Ohio State, their two non-covers this season.  They beat Wofford 36-15 as 10.5-point favorites, beat Ball State 26-13 as 3-point favorites and lost to Ohio 13-10 as 3.5-point dogs.  They outgained Wofford by 275 yards, outgained Ball State by 144 yards and outgained Ohio by 13 yards despite the loss.

Now they face another MAC team they can be competitive with in Western Michigan, and they shouldn't be catching 14 points here.  The Broncos have been grossly overvalued since nearly upsetting Michigan in Week 1.  They only beat Rice by 7 as 8.5-point road favorites, lost by 25 to Boise State as only 7.5-point dogs and only beat Buffalo by 3 as 13.5-point favorites.  That's a bad, bad Buffalo team that nearly lost outright to Robert Morris as 27.5-point favorites in a 3-point win the previous week.  Buffalo also nearly lost to Albany in a 4-point win as 18.5-point favorites.

Kent State has one of the best QB's in the MAC in Dru DeShields.  He has thrown for 752 yards while also rushing for 183 yards and 3 TD despite the tough schedule.  He will keep the Golden Flashes in this game for four quarters.  WMU doesn't have a good enough offense to be laying this many points.  The Broncos are averaging just 23.2 points per game, 303.8 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.

What will help keep Kent State competitive is the fact that both of these teams play at a snail's pace too, so there will be very few possessions in this game and fewer opportunities for the Broncos to pull away. Western Michigan ranks 131st out of 138 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.9 seconds.  Kent State ranks 117th snapping it every 29.3 seconds.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Appalachian State -9.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers look like one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have opened 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road at NC State by 10 as 12.5-point dogs.  Their lone non-cover came in a 26-21 win over Charlotte as 16.5-point favorites, which was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  They outgained Charlotte by 188 yards in that game and the 49ers had a couple late scores to get in the back door.

Old Dominion is clearly much worse off without QB Colton Joseph, who transferred to Wisconsin and has revived the Badgers this season.  The Monarchs are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS this season with their lone win coming against FCS Norfolk State.  They lost by 23 at Virginia Tech and were upset at home by East Carolina.

But it's the last two games that are the most concerning for ODU.  They lost by 26 at home to James Madison while being held to just 247 total yards.  Their 42-10 loss at Georgia State as only 2.5-point dogs last week was even more concerning.  They were held to 146 total yards by a bad Georgia State defense and they allowed 470 total yards, getting outgained by a whopping 324 total yards.

It's a ODU defense that is wearing down by being on the field so much.  And now the Monarchs will be playing for a 6th consecutive week to start the season and they are out of gas.  Meanwhile, App State is coming off a bye week and will be the much fresher team.  I love the spot for the Mountaineers, who should have no problem winning this game by double-digits.  Bet Appalachian State Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Carolina/Florida UNDER 62

This total has been inflated due to both teams being dead nuts OVER teams up to this point.  The Gamecocks have gone 4-1 OVER while the Gators have gone 4-1 OVER as well.  But this is now the highest total for any South Carolina game this season, and the 2nd-highest total for any Florida game.

But a big reason I'm on this UNDER is the weather, which will aid us in cashing.  There's a heavy chance of rain and there will certainly be wind in this game due to the hurricane.  That will make it difficult for both offenses to throw the ball and will hamper the kicking game.

These are two run-heavy offenses as it is which will keep the clock moving.  Florida averages 40 rush attempts compared to 28 pass attempts per game.  South Carolina averages 39 rush attempts compared to 34 pass attempts.  And both defenses have been solid against the run.

South Carolina allows just 100.4 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season.  The Gamecocks are expected to get back their best their best defensive player in DE Dylan Stewart from suspension for this game as well to make them even more formidable.  Florida is holding its opponents to 126.4 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry this season.

These are two teams coming off bad losses with South Carolina getting upset by Kentucky at home, and Florida getting blown out by Missouri on the road.  I think the intensity from both teams will come from the defenses after underwhelming performances.  And I think both defenses are a lot better than they showed last week, and that will play out this week.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia +3.5

I love the spot for West Virginia Saturday.  The Mountaineers are coming off consecutive Big 12 losses to open the season to Oklahoma State at home and Iowa State on the road.  They actually led Oklahoma State by 3 before giving up the final 20 points in that game in the final 18 minutes.  They lost a back and forth shootout by 3 on the road to the underrated Cyclones.

But this is more of a play against Arizona as anything.  The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS this season and I just think they are being overrated after a 34-7 home win over Cincinnati, taking advantage of the first true road game for the Bearcats last week.  They barely beat Washington State by 10, failed to cover against Northern Illinois and Northern Arizona at home, and lost against by far the best team they've faced this season in BYU by 11.

Now Arizona will be traveling out East for the first time this season for a 12:00 EST start time in Morgantown, which will be a 10:00 AM body clock game for them.  They aren't used to playing this early, and after a late-night game last Saturday against Cincinnati at home last week they have even less time to recover.

And they need to recover given all the injuries they have already suffered on offense.  They are going to be without their three best WR's, their top TD, and two starters along the offensive line this week.  They are without WR's Spivey (22 receptions, 314 yards), Richardson (15, 170) and Hunter (13, 155).  Their defense has been solid, but keep in mind they lost five NFL draft picks in the back seven this offseason and I just don't think they have faced many good offenses that can take advantage.

West Virginia is an elite offensive team that will take advantage.  The Mountaineers are averaging 37.4 points per game, 472 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.  They also rank 5th in the country in tempo, snapping the ball every 22.4 seconds.  That up-tempo offense will test the tired legs of Arizona, and I expect the Mountaineers to take control in the 2H.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UCF/Oklahoma State OVER 52

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team with a thriving offense.  In their last three games they put up 39 points and 554 yards on Oregon, 59 points and 662 yards on Murray State and 41 points and 609 yards on West Virginia.  They are in a groove, and now will be even sharper offensively coming out of their bye week.  Eric Morris brought his up-tempo offense from North Texas with him and the Cowboys rank 23rd in tempo this season, snapping the ball every 24.3 seconds.

UCF is coming off two straight unders against two under teams in TCU and Houston who run pro-style, slow offenses.  That has depressed this total enough to provide value with the OVER.  The last time they played an offensive-minded team was Georgia State, when they won 44-30 for 74 combined points.  They allowed 485 yards to Georgia State, and now this is a big step up in class against Oklahoma State's offense.

The Knights aren't going to get away with playing slow in this game because Oklahoma State is going to score, and UCF is going to be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.  I also think too much is being made of the injury to UCF QB Alonza Barnett.  He wasn't that good when he was healthy, and FIU transfer Keyone Jenkins is better than he gets credit for.  Jenkins is completing 69.7% of his passes in a couple starts thus far.

UCF also had to play three quality defenses in Pitt, TCU and Houston.  Oklahoma State does not have a quality defense.  The Cowboys allowed 31 points to Oregon despite knowing their plays.  They allowed 467 yards to West Virginia, including 335 on the ground.

While there is weather across the country, there won't be in Stillwater Saturday.  Temps will be in the 80's with no precipitation and only light winds for this game.  Both passing offenses will thrive, and this total of 52 is simply too short for a game involving the Cowboys' high-octane offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Texas A&M/Missouri OVER 48

Both Texas A&M and Missouri have been in a lot of blowouts this season that have suppressed scoring late in games.  I think this total is too low as a result, and this will be a competitive game with both offenses needing to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters.  Missouri is a 3.5-point favorite over Texas A&M this week.

Missouri has a great offense scoring 37.6 points per game.  That great offense was aided by the addition of Ole Miss transfer, Austin Simmons.  He actually beat out Trinidad Chambliss for the starting job at Ole Miss last year and only lost it due to injury.  Missouri took advantage and nabbed him in the transfer portal.  Simmons has delivered, completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,270 yards with a 13-to-0 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.3 per attempt.  The Tigers just hung 45 points and 560 total yards on Florida last week.

No question Texas A&M isn't an elite offensive team which is why this total is as low as it is.  But the Aggies put up 50 points on Missouri State, 48 on Arizona State and 34 on Arkansas.  They were held in check in a 31-21 loss to Kentucky, but that game still saw 52 combined points.  And they were getting blown out 35-6 by LSU entering the 4th quarter and both teams pulled starters in a scoreless 4th.

This is one of the worst Missouri defenses of the Eli Drinkwitz era.  The Tigers lost a ton of talent on defense to the NFL, and they are dealing with a lot of injuries right now to boot.  They allowed 31 points and 499 total yards to Mississippi State two weeks ago.  Florida's offense was asleep at the wheel last week after beating Ole Miss the weak prior, and Missouri took advantage.  Texas A&M will be able to run the ball on them and that will open things up for Marcel Reed in the play-action passing game.

While there will be weather across the country this week, it won't impact this game at all.  Temps will be in the 80's with no wind and no rain, perfect for a shootout.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between Missouri and Texas A&M with 49 or more combined points in all seven meetings.  This total of 48 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Iowa State/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Iowa State +10.5

The BYU Cougars are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season against an easy schedule of Utah Tech and Arizona at home, as well as Colorado State and TCU on the road.  And they barely covered the spread in all four games, and because they are 4-0 ATS they are overvalued and it's time to 'sell high' on them.

They beat Utah Tech by 56 as 50.5-point favorites.  They beat Arizona by 11 as 6.5-point home favorites, a game in which Arizona lost its best receiver in the 1st quarter.  They only outgained Arizona by 38 yards.  They only beat Colorado State by 18 as 17.5-point favorites, a Colorado State team that is getting blasted by everyone.  And they only beat TCU by 7 as 5.5-point favorites.  They were actually held to 216 yards and 3.5 yards per pay by TCU but found a way to escape with a victory late.

I think BYU is going to have to try and grind this one out, too.  That's because the Cougars will be without their best playmakers in RB LJ Martin, who won the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year award in 2025.  Martin was well on his way again with 344 rushing yards and 3 TD on 7.8 per carry thus far this season.  It's a huge blow to the offense.  The Cougars will also be without one of their best defenders in LB Isaiah Glasker as well.

Iowa State had a tough time tackling Utah and West Virginia the last two weeks.  But those were two explosive, dynamic offenses.  BYU is not that, making this a much better matchup for them.  They are built for physicality defensively and matched up well with Iowa in a 16-13 loss.  Iowa profiles similar to BYU, a big, physical team that likes to grind you out.  Iowa State matches up well with that.

Iowa State fell behind 21-0 but came back and got within one score of Utah before eventually losing 31-17.  Utah looks like the best team in the Big 12.  The Cyclones came back last week and proved they could win a shootout, beating West Virginia 45-42 behind 577 yards of offense and 7.6 per play.  Their offensive coordinator is one of the best in college football that not too many know about in Tyler Roehl.  He is getting the most out of this offense, and head coach Jimmy Rogers and DC Jesse Bobbit are getting the most out of this defense.  It's just what Rogers does, he wins everywhere he goes and gets the most out of his players.

Iowa State will be 'all in' this week getting to face a Top 10 team and also knowing it has a bye on deck next week to rest.  Look for Roehl to open up the entire playbook and give his team the best chance to win.  RB Aidan Flora was the National Offensive Player of the Week with 5 TD's last week including 2 passing.  It just shows how Roehl is so good at scheming things up.

BYU will not be 'all in' this week.  That's because the Cougars have their biggest game of the season on deck next week as they will be hosting Notre Dame.  Coming off the big road win at TCU last week, and with Notre Dame on deck this next week, it would be easy for the Cougars to overlook the Cyclones.  I expect they'll be in for another dog fight this week and more of a fight than they bargained for against a Cyclones team that has proven they will just keep coming.  Bet Iowa State Friday.

20* Bucs/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on OVER 47

The Dallas Cowboys remain a dead nuts OVER team this season with a great offense and a terrible defense.  They are putting up 30.5 points per game this season and brought back their entire offense from last season that was elite.  They just scored 34 points on the Ravens and 34 on the Texans, two of the best defenses in the league.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 28.0 points per game, 380.5 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season despite facing three poor offenses in the Giants, Commanders and Texans.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in CB Durant, S Locke, CB Moore and S Thompson.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.  That's why they made the desperate trade for CB Joey Porter Jr. last week.

Dak Prescott is 30-11 OVER in all home games since 2020, going over the total by an average of 9.3 points per game.  In his career at home, Prescott is 49-26 OVER.  The Cowboys are 10-0 OVER in their last 10 games overall dating back to last season, and 17-4 OVER since the start of last season.  They went for 48 combined points with the Giants, 57 with Marcus Mariota and the Commanders, 65 with the Ravens and 64 with the Texans in their first four games this season.  This total of 47 is clearly too short for a game involving the Cowboys, which needs totals in the 50's and even those aren't high enough more times than not.

The reason this total is lower is because the Bucs are starting a rookie QB in Jalon Daniels.  But he held his own in his first start, going 19-of-27 passing for 148 yards with one TD and two INT, while also rushing for 55 yards on eight carries in their home loss to the Packers last week.  Daniels will be much more comfortable in his 2nd start, and his dual-threat ability will be key in getting away from these Dallas pass rushers and making big plays down the field.

The Bucs have a fully healthy offensive line and a healthy group of skill players for Daniels to work without outside No. 3 WR Jalen McMillan.  He will be much more comfortable working with these guys for a 2nd week.  And it's not like Baker Mayfield was playing well prior to getting injured.  In fact, he was in the midst of one of the worst seasons of his career with a 2-to-2 TD/INT ratio while taking 13 sacks and averaging just 6.4 per attempt.  He was consistently overthrowing wide open receivers down the field.  It's not as big of a drop off to Daniels as most anticipate.

The offense has also played four straight outdoor games with three at home and one in Cincinnati, a 33-27 loss that saw 60 combined points.  And that was back in Week 1 when the Bengals usually struggle offensively out of the gate.  But the other three offenses they faced are three of the worst in the NFL in the Browns, Vikings and Packers.  This Dallas offense is by far the best unit it will have faced this season, and this Dallas defense is also by far the worst unit it will have faced this season.  And it's indoors in perfect conditions for a shootout.  I expect the Cowboys to get into the 30's and the Bucs to get into the 20's in this one to sail OVER this 47-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Guardians/White Sox ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +106

The White Sox are scoring 4.8 runs per game compared to 4.2 runs per game for the Guardians this season.  Their big advantage on offense makes me like them as home underdogs in Game 4 to close out this series.

This is a potent Chicago offense that gets the opportunity to face Parker Messick for the 6th time this season alone.  They have gotten to him each of the last three times they faced him and are improving against him.  Messick has allowed 4 homers in his last three starts against Chicago, and he lasted just 4 1/3 innings while allowing 2 earned runs in a 3-0 loss to the White Sox in Game 1.

Hagen Smith will be the opener for the White Sox this season.  He is 3-3 with a 1.31 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, allowing just 5 earned runs and one homer in 34 1/3 innings.  Smith was opposite Messick in Game 1, firing 2 2/3 shutout innings with 4 K's in that 3-0 victory.  The White Sox have their best reliever in Grant Taylor to eat up big innings tonight after he didn't pitch Game 3.  Taylor pitched 4 shutout innings in Game 1 with 6 K's while allowing just two base runners.  Bet the White Sox in Game 4 Thursday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State +14

I love the spot for Sam Houston State.  The Bearkats are off a bye and have been off since September 26th.  Meanwhile, they take on a tired Liberty team playing for a 6th consecutive week to open the season and on a short week to boot.  The spot really favors the Bearkats, and I think they have what it takes to keep this game close even if they didn't have the rest advantage.

Sam Houston State looks like one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Bearkats are 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS this season.  They only lost by 3 at Troy as 16.5-point dogs and actually outgained the Trojans by 31 yards.  They only lost by 6 at home to Tulsa as 12.5-point dogs and outgained them, the same Golden Hurricane team that upset Oklahoma State.  They crushed Nicholls State 59-0 as 21-point favorites.

Perhaps the most impressive performance was going into their bye week when they were going toe-to-toe with Texas Tech for a half.  They only trailed 21-14 at halftime despite two of Texas Tech's TD's coming on Pick 6's.  They eventually lost by 35 as 34.5-point dogs, a brutal beat for Sam Houston State backers.  It was much closer than the final score showed.

It's time to 'sell high' on Liberty after four straight wins and three straight covers.  After losing by 7 at James Madison in the opener, Liberty was life and death with terrible FCS Gardner-Webb as a 28.5-point favorites, winning 24-23.  Then they beat Ball State 51-15 with a backup QB for Ball State.  They then beat Coastal Carolina on the road, and benefited from another QB injury in a 30-14 win at Delaware without their starting QB.  Their luck will run out this week, and they'll be in for more of a fight than they bargained for in this one.

Sam Houston State is actually outgaining its opponents 5.9 to 5.1 yards per play, or by an average of 0.8 yards per play despite the brutal schedule of Troy, Tulsa and Texas Tech in three of their four games.  Liberty is outgaining opponents 6.3 to 5.0 yards per play, or by 1.3 yards per play, but the schedule has been much easier for them.

I think Sam Houston State has the better QB in this game with Landyn Locke, who is completing 66.2% of his passes and averaging 8.1 per attempt with an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio to boot.  Deshawn Purdie is only completing 60% of his passes and has just 33 rushing yards on 30 attempts, so he's not even a dual-threat for Liberty.  Bet Sam Houston State Thursday.

20* Jax State/Kennesaw State C-USA No-Brainer on Jacksonville State -2.5

I love the spot for Jacksonville State tonight.  The Gamecocks have had this game circled all offseason since losing to Kennesaw State in the C-USA Championship Game last season.  They want revenge, and they will get it in a big way tonight as they have clearly been the better team to this point.

The Gamecocks brought back nine starters from that team that made the title game last season which is a lot for a Group of 6 team.  None more important than QB Caden Creel, who threw for 1,514 yards and 9 TD last season, while also rushing for 1,076 yards and 7 scores as one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  Leading receiver Deondre Johnson (724 yards, 6 TD) is back, as are five starters and three of the top four tacklers on defense.

The Gamcocks are off to a 3-2 start this season with their only losses coming on the road at North Dakota State and at Ohio.  North Dakota State looks like a serious playoff contender to challenge for that Group of 6 spot as the Bison remain unbeaten.  The loss to Ohio was a joke as they outgained the Bobcats by 188 yards but found a way to lose in OT.  They dominated in the stats in their home wins over Eastern Kentucky (49-7), Georgia Southern (31-27) and Middle Tennessee (23-13).

Kennesaw State is 1-3 this season and way down from last year.  The Owls' lone win came against FCS West Georgia at home in the opener.  They went on to lose by 14 at home to Georgia State, by 33 at Tennessee and by 3 at Arkansas State.  The Owls were gutted on offense only bringing back two starters.  They lost both QB's in Odom and Williams, their top six rushers, and each of their top four receivers.

It's no wonder this Kennesaw State offense is really struggling this season being held to 17 points by a bad Georgia State defense, 9 points by Tennessee and 14 points by a bad Arkansas State defense.  Their defense has been respectable, but it was a bad defense last year that brought back six starters from a unit that allowed 405 yards per game.

While QB Odom is now starting at Syracuse, Kennesaw State now has former Syracuse QB Rickie Collins as its starter.  That's a bad tradeoff as Odom is the much better guy.  Rickie Collins was terrible at Syracuse last year only playing because of an injury to starter Steve Angeli.  He made five starters for the Orange last season and completed just 54% of his passes with a 6-to-10 TD/INT ratio.  He hasn't been much better for Kennesaw with a 2-to-1 TD/INT ratio in four games.

A quick look at the numbers and it's easy to see Jacksonville State is far and away the superior team.  Jacksonville State averaged 6.6 yards per play on offense and allows 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.  Kennesaw State averages 5.5 yards per play on offense and allows 5.8 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play.  Bet Jacksonville State Wednesday.

15* Dodgers/Braves NLDS ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +136

The Dodgers are ripe for the picking with several of their best hitters struggling, most notably Shohei Ohtani who looks like a shell of his former self.  Ohtani is hitting .163 with zero homers, one RBI and 32 K's in his last 86 plate appearances.  Los Angeles should not be this big of a favorite over Atlanta in Game 4 on the road tonight.

Tyler Mahle has proven to be the best trade acquisition of any starting pitcher at the deadline in all of baseball.  Mahle posted a 1.99 ERA in his final nine starts of the regular season for the Braves.  He then held the Phillies to just one earned run in 7 innings in his first career postseason start in Game 2 of that wild card series.  He is ready for the moment, and is 3-3 with a 3.15 ERA in eight career starts against the Dodgers.  Better yet, Mahle has fired 14 shutout innings for a 0.00 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers over the last two seasons.

Tyler Glasnow has really struggled down the stretch for the Dodgers.  He has allowed 13 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings in his last four starts for a 5.24 ERA in his last four starts.  Glasnow allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings of a 4-3 loss to the Braves in his lone start against them this season.  Worse yet, Glasnow is 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA in five career postseason starts on the road while averaging just 4.5 innings per start.  He could get the quick pull, which would put a lot of pressure on this suspect Los Angeles bullpen.  Bet the Braves in Game 4 Wednesday.

20* Guardians/White Sox ALDS No-Brainer on Chicago -109

The Chicago White Sox have a big advantage on offense over the Cleveland Guardians.  They are scoring 4.8 runs per game compared to 4.15 runs per game for the Guardians.  Cleveland was fortunate in close games this season, and its luck has run out in the playoffs.

Chicago outscored Houston 13-6 while sweeping the ALWC series.  They didn't look intimidated at all and looked like they belong.  Now they have their sights set on revenge on the Guardians, who stole the division from them.  This will be the ultimate revenge to knock them out of the playoffs.

It started with a 3-0 victory by the White Sox in Game 1 in which the Guardians were held to 3 hits.  They held the Guardians to 4 hits in their 4-3 victory in Game 2 in which Cleveland got 2 runs off of an error in the 1st inning.  The Guardians are rusty after having a week off, and now they'll be playing just their 3rd game since September 27th, and it will be hard to see them finding their groove offensively with so much time off.

The White Sox have held opponents to 6 hits or fewer in each of their first four postseason games during this 4-0 run.  They are piecing together a bullpen, and Grant Taylor has been a monster at the back end of it and will be available again tonight after throwing just 7 pitchers in Game 2.  Not to mention, the White Sox haven't clinched a postseason series at home since 1906, so it will be a raucous atmosphere to try and get the job done tonight.

The Guardians used their best two starters by far in Messick and Williams for Games 1 and 2.  Now they will be going with a bullpen game starting with Daniel Espisino, who has posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 16 innings this season, allowing 7 earned runs and 3 homers.  This Cleveland bullpen has folded in these playoffs and looks overmatched as well.  Bet the White Sox in Game 3 Wednesday.

20* Falcons/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on Atlanta +3

I was on the Falcons +5.5 against the Packers last week in an easy 35-14 victory.  I stated that Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush was not being factored into the line enough.  I don't think it's being factored into the line enough this week, either.

Penix Jr. has thrown for 3,013 yards with a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers last week.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.

While the Falcons have a massive rest advantage here playing last Thursday, the Saints are a tired team with three straight games that went down to the wire.  They lost 31-30 (OT) to the Lions in Week 1.  They came back late to beat the Ravens 24-17 in Week 2.  And last week they blew a 4th quarter lead in a 35-27 shootout loss to the Raiders.

While the Falcons are one of the healthiest, freshest teams in the NFL, the Saints are starting to see injuries pile up.  They are without two starting offensive linemen on the left side of their line, including their best in LT Kelvin Banks Jr.  WR Jordyn Tyson remains on IR.  RB Travis Etienne who they just gave big money to this offense just went on IR after suffering an injury against the Raiders.  That leave she washed up Alvin Kamara to get the bulk of the reps at RB.

Defensively, the Saints are without WLB Carl Granderson and his backup in WLB Anfernee Jennings.  They are without starting MLB Kaden Ellis, and starting RILB Pete Werner is questionable after leaving the loss to the Raiders.  So they are potential down their 3 starting LB's, which isn't going to go well for them up against the best RB in the league in Robinson.  He is going to have a monster game to lead the Falcons to victory against a New Orleans defense that allows 27.7 points per game.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* Falcons/Saints ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 48

I was on the Falcons +5.5 against the Packers last week in an easy 35-14 victory.  I stated that Michael Penix is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush was not being factored into the line enough.  I don't think it's being factored into the total enough this week, either.

Penix Jr. has thrown for 3,013 yards with a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers last week.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijon Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.

The Saints are a tired team.  They lost 31-30 (OT) to the Lions in Week 1.  They came back late to beat the Ravens 24-17 in Week 2.  And last week they blew a 4th quarter lead in a 35-27 shootout loss to the Raiders.  This New Orleans offense is solid with QB Tyler Shough and proven weapons in Olave, Johnson and Vele leading them to 27.0 points per game and 382.7 yards per game through three weeks.  But the defense is in shambles right now.

The Saints are without WLB Carl Granderson and his backup in WLB Anfernee Jennings.  They are without starting MLB Kaden Ellis, and starting RILB Pete Werner is questionable after leaving the loss to the Raiders.  So they are potential down their 3 starting LB's, which isn't going to go well for them up against the best RB in the league in Robinson.  He is going to have a monster game against. New Orleans defense that allows 27.7 points per game.  The Saints will have to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* White Sox/Guardians ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +140

The Chicago White Sox have a big advantage on offense over the Cleveland Guardians.  They are scoring 4.8 runs per game compared to 4.2 runs per game for the Guardians.  Cleveland was fortunate in close games this season, and its luck will run out in the playoffs.

Chicago outscored Houston 13-6 while sweeping the ALWC series.  They didn't look intimidated at all and looked like they belong.  Now they have their sights set on revenge on the Guardians, who stole the division from them.  This will be the ultimate revenge to knock them out of the playoffs.

It started with a 3-0 victory by the White Sox in Game 1 in which the Guardians were held to 3 hits.  The Guardians are rusty after having a week off, and now they'll be playing just their 2nd game since September 27th, and it will be hard to see them finding their groove offensively with so much time off.

Now they must face a tandem that has been a nemesis for them all season.  Anthony Kay will start Game 2 for the White Sox.  Kay has a 1.35 ERA in 20 innings against the Guardians in 2026 alone.  Sean Burke will take over for Kay.  Burke has a 1.04 ERA in 17 innings against the Guardians in 2026.

Gavin Williams is getting way too much respect for Cleveland in Game 2.  He is 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA in 32 starts this season while allowing 28 homers.  Williams is 1-2 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in seven career starts against the White Sox.  That includes 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four career home starts against Chicago, allowing 11 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings.  Bet the White Sox in Game 2 Monday.

15* Broncos/49ers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 46.5

The 49ers have the best offense in the NFL this season.  They are scoring 32.7 points per game, averaging 399.3 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play.  Kyle Shanahan has Brock Purdy as a favorite to win the MVP, and they are doing it despite cluster injuries at the WR position.  They are just so good at scheming guys open no matter who is on the field.

But what makes the 49ers an OVER team right now is all their injuries on defense.  They are without as many as six defensive linemen this week in Bosa, Collins, Williams, West, Okuayinonu and Thompson Jr.  DE Keion White, LB Greenlaw and LB Dugger are three starters who are all questionable for the 49ers as well.

All these defensive injuries forced the 49ers to win a 36-30 shootout with the Cardinals last week that saw 66 combined points.  And now the Broncos are going to bring their solid offense into Santa Clara this week to take advantage of this suspect San Francisco defense.  The Broncos and 49ers will both get their points in this one, and this 46.5-point total is too short.

When the Broncos put their foot on the gas offensively, they are elite.  They came back from 16-0 down to beat the Rams 30-26 last week for 56 combined points.  They trailed 13-3 in the 2H against the Jaguars but scored the final 17 points to win that game.  Which ever offense is down is going to come back, and this should be a back and forth game from the jump.  The Broncos actually have playmakers for Bo Nix led by the addition of Waddle, and he is getting more and more comfortable each week after a slow start to the season returning from injury.

The Broncos had elite defensive numbers last season but they also benefited from an easy schedule.  Well, that defense has been exposed by the Chiefs, Jaguars and Rams.  The Broncos are allowing a whopping 380.7 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play this season.  They clearly miss Jonathan Cooper, their best pass rusher who remains out.  And there are holes all over the secondary, most notably with teams targeting CB Riley Moss.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Padres/Brewers NLDS ANNIHILATOR on San Diego +125

The Milwaukee Brewers were very fortunate to win Game 1.  The Padres had a would-be go ahead homer hit the rafters and it was caught in deep left field.  No question it would have been a homer off closer Trevor Megill.  They left 11 runners on base in their 3-2 defeat and had more opportunities than the Brewers all game.

I like the fact that Game 2 is an early start time the next day so the Padres will have no problem getting over it quickly.  I like how Game 2 sets up for them as their best reliever in closer Mason Miller didn't pitch last night, so he will be in line for multiple innings tonight if need be.

Meanwhile, the Brewers went through all their best arms using five different relievers including multiple innings for closer Megill.  They also used Hall, Uribe and Ashby.  This will undoubtedly be a close game in the final innings, and I think the Padres are better positioned to get it done late at a nice underdog value.

The Padres are on a 19-4 run in their last 23 games overall.  Their offense came to life scoring at least 4 runs in 18 of their last 21 games, including 7 runs or more in 12 of their last 20 contests.  They outscored the Cubs 12-1 in sweeping the Wild Card series.

Michael King is 13-10 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 33 starts for the Padres this season.  He tossed 7 shutout innings of one-hit ball in Game 1 against the Cubs.  King held the Brewers to one earned run in 5 2/3 innings of a 3-1 victory at Milwaukee on May 13th in his lone start against them this season.  He has posted a 2.96 ERA in four career starts against the Brewers while allowing 8 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings.

Logan Henderson had a great regular season at 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA in 18 starts.  However, one of his worst starts of the season came against the Padres on August 10th.  He allowed 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 1/3 innings of a 3-2 loss to San Diego.  Bet the Padres in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Rams/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2.5

The Los Angeles Rams are going to come out angry with a point to prove on Sunday.  They have opened 1-2 this season after coming into the year as the Super Bowl favorites.  They also want revenge from blowing a 26-7 lead to the Eagles last year and losing after having their potential game-winning FG at the buzzer blocked.

The Rams still look like the best team in the NFL in my opinion despite their record.  Their numbers are elite, averaging 417.7 yards per game and 6.5 per play on offense while allowing just 272.7 yards per game and 4.6 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 145 yards per game and 1.9 yards per play this season.

Last week's fluke loss to the Broncos has them undervalued.  They outgained the Broncos 482 to 257, or by 225 yards.  The Broncos got every call down the stretch and overcame at 16-0 halftime deficit thanks to some help from the refs.  When the Rams get up big again this week, they will not take their foot off the gas.

After sitting out the last two weeks, Puka Nacua is expected back in the lineup to give Matthew Stafford the comfort he needs.  This is the best offense in the NFL in their current state with as healthy as they are on that side of the ball right now.  And the defense is still balling out even without Donald and Garrett.  It's one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL, and they do get S Kinchens back this week.

The Eagles are big frauds.  They are 2-1 SU by 0-3 ATS and easily could have lost all three games.  They needed to stop a 2-point conversion to preserve their 24-22 win over the lowly Commanders in Week 1.  They needed a late TD to beat the lowly Titans 24-20 on the road.  And they just lost to Case Keenum and the Bears on Monday Night Football 27-7 and were thoroughly outplayed throughout.

Now the Eagles are on a short week and the injury report is gloomy for them.  An already hapless offense that was held to 7 points by the Bears last week just got even worse.  After losing AJ Brown in the offseason, now the Eagles will be without star WR DeVonta Smith this week with a hamstring injury.  They are also without TE Dallas Goedert and WR Hollywood Brown.  Jalen Hurts will be throwing the ball to Wicks, Lemon and several other guys you've never heard of before.  This offense has no chance of keeping pace with the Rams.

The Eagles have a great defense on paper, but unfortunately it has not looked nearly as good on the field.  Allowing 22 points to Washington, 20 to the Titans and 27 to the Bears to this point is very poor when you consider those are three of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Bears went for 375 yards on them with Keenum under center.  Now the Eagles are down two starters this week in LB Zack Baun and SS Marcus Epps.  You can run on the Eagles as they are allowing 127.3 rushing yards per game.  The Rams will have a ton of success on the ground in this one.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cowboys/Texans OVER 47.5

The Dallas Cowboys remain a dead nuts OVER team this season with a great offense and a terrible defense.  They are putting up 29.3 points per game this season and brought back their entire offense from last season that was elite.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 27.3 points per game, 387 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season despite facing two poor offenses in the Giants and the Commanders with Marcus Mariota.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in CB Durant, S Locke, CB Moore and S Thompson.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.  That's why they made the desperate trade for CB Joey Porter Jr. this week.

The Texans are night and day better offensively with star WR Nico Collins in the lineup.  They got in a 36-31 shootout in Week 1 with the Bills for 67 combined points.  Collins had 7 receptions for 75 yards and a TD in the loss.  The Texans have been lost without him the last two weeks.  But Collins returns this week, and I expect this Houston offense to thrive against the worst defense they have faced this season in the Cowboys this week.

The Texans have regressed defensively this season and are no longer the best defense in the NFL.  A big reason is the injuries at LB with Al-Shaair and his backup in Ossai.  They are also without another starting LB in To'oTo'o, and fellow starting LB Jake Hansen is questionable.  There is a clear hole in the middle of their defense that the Cowboys can exploit.

Dak Prescott is 6-0 OVER n his last six starts against AFC opponents.  The Cowboys are 9-2 OVER in indoor games over the last two seasons and going over the total by an avreage of 9.7 points per game.  Any Dallas total in the 40's indoors is too low.  They just had a 53.5-point total with the Ravens last week after a 51.5-point total with the Commanders the week prior.  This total of 47.5 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Cardinals -1

I love the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  After upsetting the Chargers 26-14 on the road in Week 1, the Cardinals played two of the best teams in the NFL the last two weeks in the Seahawks and 49ers.  They let go of the rope in the 2H after being tied 7-7 with the Seahawks at halftime.  They fought hard but lost 36-30 as 7.5-point road dogs to the 49ers.

Now the Cardinals take a big step down in class here against the Giants.  It's an overrated Giants team that is off to a surprising 2-1 start.  They showed what they were capable of when fully healthy in Week 1 beating the Cowboys 28-20 at home.  But then they lost QB Jaxson Dart in Week 2 and were blown out 28-6 by the Rams.  And last week they played a bottom 3 team in the NFL in the Titans and got a game-winning INT in the end zone to preserve a 12-7 victory.

This is where all the injuries catch up to the Giants.  Backup QB Jameis Winston looks like a shell of his former self.  They built this offense around the dual-threat ability of Dart, but Winston is not that.  Winston is completing 51% of his passes and averaging 4.7 per attempt this season.  The Giants suffered a big blow with the loss of LB Brian Burns, their best overall defender and their best pass rusher.

The Giants have terrible numbers this season.  They are averaging 271.3 yards per game and 4.7 per play on offense, and allowing 329.0 yards per game and 5.9 per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 57.7 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.  It's only going to get worse moving forward in their current state with all these injuries.

The Cardinals have a much more talented roster than they get credit for.  And that has shown this season, and thankfully after being injury-ravaged last year, they are currently one of the most healthy teams in the NFL.  All 11 starters are healthy on offense.  Nine starters are healthy on defense with the lone exception being CB Will Johnson, while DE Josh Sweat is questionable.

The Cardinals are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 games against NFC East opponents, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven against this division.  They tend to play much better when they step outside the NFC West, which is far and away the best division in football.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* Cowboys/Texans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston -2.5

The Texans are the only team since 2000 to make the playoffs after a 0-3 start.  They have done it twice, including last season.  They have been here before and they will not panic, but they will be playing with a greater sense of urgency this week to get their first win.  They could easily be 3-0 or 2-1 instead when you look at the results.

The Texans were only outgained by 28 yards by the Bills but were -2 in turnovers in a 36-31 home loss in Week 1.  They dropped what would have been the game-winning INT.  In Week 2, they actually outgained the Bengals by 107 yards but lost 20-6.  That was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  And last week they fought back to take a lead, only to lose on a last-second FG 19-17 at Indianapolis.

NFL teams that are 0-3 entering Week 4 up against a team with at least one win are 47-25-1 ATS since 2005.  I would not play all these teams blindly, but the Texans are my favorite of the bunch in this situation.  It makes sense too because these 0-3 teams play with more desperation than their opponents.  They are also undervalued after three straight losses, and the Texans fit that bill.

But the biggest reason I'm on the Texans is their injury report compared to that of Dallas.  The Texans are night and day better offensively with star WR Nico Collins in the lineup.  Collins had 7 receptions for 75 yards and a TD in the Week 1 loss to the Bills.  The Texans have been lost without him the last two weeks.  But Collins returns this week, and I expect this Houston offense to thrive against the worst defense they have faced this season in the Cowboys.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 27.3 points per game, 387 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season despite facing two poor offenses in the Giants and the Commanders with Marcus Mariota.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in CB Durant, S Locke, CB Moore and S Thompson.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.  That's why they made the desperate trade for CB Joey Porter Jr. this week.

The Texans still have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They have played three very good offenses in the Bills, Bengals and Colts and have held them to 325.3 yards per game.  They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week after not being able to get the game-winning stop in the losses to the Bills and Colts giving up a lead in the final seconds of both.

The Cowboys have a knack for losing close games.  They found a way to lose to the Ravens in Brazil at the buzzer last week, and now this is a brutal spot for them.  It's the type of loss that can beat them twice.  Now they'll be on the road for a second consecutive week after the long flight back from Brazil.  I don't expect it to go well for them, especially with a motivated Houston team waiting for them.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

15* Padres/Brewers NLDS ANNIHILATOR on San Diego +180

The San Diego Padres were one of the best teams in baseball over the final four months of the season.  They are on a 19-3 run in their last 22 games overall.  Their offense came to life scoring at least 4 runs in 18 of their last 20 games, including 7 runs or more in 12 of their last 19 contests.  The outscored the Cubs 12-1 in sweeping the Wild Card series.

If I'm going to fade arguably the best starter in baseball in Jacob Misiorowski, I want to do so with a hot lineup like the Padres.  They have a ton of confidence coming into this series and I could see them getting to Misiorowski.  But I expect this game to be close throughout, and the Padres have the best bullpen in baseball for my money to get over the hump in the final innings at a big underdog price.

Robbie Ray is having another solid season going 13-8 with a 3.59 ERA in 30 starts and one relief appearance.  He is good enough to keep the Padres in this game in the early going and get it to their elite bullpen.  Rust may be a factor for the Brewers as well after being off for the last week.  They haven't had a meaningful game since clinching the best record in the NL in the final few days.  That rust will show up offensively.  Bet the Padres in Game 1 Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah State +20.5

The Boise State Broncos are overvalued off a 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start to the season.  Now they are being asked to win by three touchdowns to beat us, which is asking too much.  They are still getting a lot of credit for their 7-point loss to Oregon, but they were outgained by 223 yards by Oregon and should have lost by more.

They went on to beat Memphis 38-20, but they allowed 519 yards and 10.0 yards per play to Memphis in another misleading final.  Their 38-24 win over South Dakota as 28.5-point home favorites was unimpressive.  Their 32-7 win at Western Michigan as 7.5-point road favorites last week is what really has them overvalued.  That was a big game for both teams with Group of 6 playoff implications, and after that win this is a bit of a letdown spot for the Broncos.

Utah State is undervalued after a 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS start this season against a brutal schedule.  The 29-17 loss to Idaho State in the opener was very misleading.  They outgained Idaho State by 166 yards but were -4 in turnovers to give the game away.  Idaho State is a Top 5 FCS team to boot.  I always like backing teams after a loss to a FCS opponent because it's the type of loss that lingers in bettors' minds.  Had they been dominated in the stats too I would be concerned, but they weren't.

Utah State came back with a near upset of Washington in a 16-14 road loss as 28.5-point dogs.  They were only outgained by 75 yards by the Huskies.  They went on to lose 33-0 at Utah, but Utah looks like the best team in the Big 12 to this point.  They finally got their first win last week in a 21-10 home win over Troy as 3-point favorites.  That's a Troy team that nearly upset Missouri on the road the previous week.  They outgained Troy 7.0 to 4.9 yards per play, or by 2.1 yards per play in a dominant effort.

Despite playing similar strength of schedules, Utah State clearly has the better defense.  The Aggies are only allowing 5.1 yards per play this season, while the Broncos are allowing a whopping 7.0 yards per play.  Their glaring weakness on defense makes me really question their chances as a playoff team.  Their leaky defense will be a problem all year.

Utah State wants revenge from a 25-24 home loss to Boise State last season.  The Aggies have the goods this season to hang with the Broncos, just like they hung with Washington on the road in a 2-point loss in one of the toughest environments in college football.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +6.5

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on Temple and 'sell high' spot on South Florida this week.  The Owls are much better than their 1-3 record indicates when you look at the box scores, and the Bulls are much worse than their 4-0 record indicates when you dive into the numbers as well.

Temple is 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS this season.  After beating Rhode Island 38-14 as 14.5-point favorites in the opener, the Owls lost 27-9 as 24.5-point dogs to Penn State in a game effort back when Penn State was rolling offensively with a healthy Howard at WR.  The 49-48 (OT) loss to Toledo was brutal blowing a 14-point lead in the final minutes.  The 21-17 loss to Army as 3.5-point dogs last week was nearly as bad as they outgained Army by 144 yards and should have won.

South Florida opened with a 19-9 win over FIU as 14.5-point favorites.  The Bulls were outgained by FIU by a whopping 173 yards in a very misleading final.  They trailed that same Army team by 10 points late in the 4th quarter but escaped with a 28-24 win as 3.5-point dogs.  They beat Delaware State 59-17 before only beating Bowling Green 14-6 as 18.5-point favorites last week.  They were actually scoreless going into the 4th quarter against a Bowling Green defense that gave up 56 points to Nebraska and 55 to Iowa State in its previous two games.  Bowling Green may be the worst FBS team in the country, and it took USF to the wire.

Temple has an extra day of rest after losing to Army last Friday.  That extra time to recover and refocus for another conference game here is big.  USF is 'fat and happy' after a 4-0 start and ripe for the upset.  The Bulls also have a big game on deck against UTSA on Thursday on a short week.  After managing just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play against Bowling Green and 208 total yards and 3.7 per play against FIU, this USF offense isn't good enough to be asked to win by a TD or more to beat us this week.  I strongly feel Temple is the better team and we likely won't need the 6.5 points this week, but we'll take them for some insurance.  Bet Temple Saturday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Purdue/Illinois OVER 61.5

Purdue is a dead nuts OVER team going 4-0 OVER in all games this season.  They went for 63 combined points with Indiana State, 74 with Wake Forest, 90 with UCLA and 59 with Notre Dame, which has the best defense in the country for my money.  This total of 61.5 is actually too short for a game involving Purdue right now.

Illinois is also a dead nuts OVER team.  The Fighting Illini are 4-0 OVER this season, going for 63 combined points with UAB, 58 with Duke, 58 with Southern Illinois and 61 with Ohio State.  Both teams have great offenses but terrible defenses, and this should be a shootout as a result.

Illinois is scoring 34.0 points per game and averaging 7.0 yards per play on offense.  ECU transfer Katin Houser has been great, completing 68.6% of his passes for 1,021 yards with a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  Collin Dixon has 30 receptions for 430 yards and 7 TD and is the next great Illinois receiver.  The Fighting Illini are averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the ground despite a tough schedule.  What was most impressive was putting up 462 yards and 6.5 yards per play against Ohio State's elite defense last week.

The Fighting Illini switched to a 3-3-5 scheme this season but didn't have the personnel for it.  Illinois just this week mutually parted ways with defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck.  They have been lost defensively and will continue to be lost this week after allowing 518 yards and 7.6 per play to Ohio State.  They also allowed 413 yards to lowly UAB, and 6.6 yards per play to Duke.

Ryan Browne is one of the better QB's in the country that nobody knows about.  He is completing 71.3% of his passes for 1,135 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.8 per attempt despite the tough schedule.  He has led this Purdue offense to 32.0 points per game and 6.0 yards per play.

Purdue's defensive coordinator needs fired with this performance through four games.  The Boilermakers are allowing 39.5 points per game, 446 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  They just don't have much talent on defense.  The Boilermakers play fast on offense ranking 39th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.9 seconds, which puts a lot of pressure on that tired defense that allowed 49 points to Notre Dame's suspect offense last week.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Illinois and Ohio State.  They combined for 70 points in 2025, 99 points in 2024 and 63 points in 2023.  It should be more of the same in 2026.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, single-digit winds and no precipitation in Champaign for this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kentucky/South Carolina OVER 53

Kentucky now has an offensive-minded head coach in former Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein.  This Kentucky offense has improved rapidly this season scoring 34.5 points per game while averaging 6.8 yards per play despite a tough schedule that has featured Alabama and Texas A&M.  I love QB Kenny Minchey, who is completing 68.3% of his passes with a 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio.

South Carolina boasts a more up-tempo offense this season.  The Gamecocks are scoring 38.5 points per game while averaging 499.3 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  Veteran QB LaNorris Sellers has thrown for 833 yards and 6 TD, while also rushing for 244 yards and a score on 6.8 per carry.  This South Carolina rushing attack has been elite rushing for 262 yards per game and 6.6 per carry.  The Gamecocks will get whatever they want on the ground against Kentucky.

Both defenses are clearly down this season, and South Carolina just suspended its best defender for this game in DE Dylan Stewart after he threw a punch last week.  The Gamecocks lost 5 NFL draft picks on defense from last season as all five were drafted in the first four rounds.  They just allowed 49 points, 489 yards and 8.6 yards per play to Alabama last week.  Kentucky allowed 45 points to Alabama, and it just allowed 21 points in the 1H alone to South Alabama and a backup QB last week.

The Wildcats are 3-1 OVER in all games this season finishing with 52 or more combined points in all four games.  The Gamecocks are 3-1 OVER in all games this season finishing with 54 or more combined points in all four games.  This total of 53 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wyoming/North Dakota State UNDER 46

Both North Dakota State and Wyoming are mirror images of one another, NDSU just does it better.  Both features run-heavy, slow-paced offenses and rely on defense to win games.  NDSU ranks 129th in tempo snapping the ball every 30.5 seconds, while Wyoming ranks 115th at 29.1 seconds.  There will be very few possessions in this game and fewer opportunities for points as a result.

North Dakota State is 3-1 UNDER in all games this season.  They beat Jacksonville State 33-7 for 40 combined points, Fordham 38-0 for 38 combined points, and Sacramento State 31-10 for 41 combined points.  The lone over was an aberration as both NDSU and Air Force finished with fewer than 400 yards of offense each and it went for 70 combined points.

NDSU is averaging 40 rush attempts compared to 24 pass attempts per game.  They aren't even running it that well averaging 4.0 yards per carry.  But this NDSU defense is elite, allowing 12.3 points per game, 254.8 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  I wouldn't be surprised if they come close to shutting out Wyoming in this one.

This Wyoming offense is horrid.  The Cowboys average 17.8 points per game, 326.5 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play.  And they have faced a very soft schedule of Colorado State, Northern Colorado, Central Michigan and Hawaii.  They only managed 13 points against Colorado State, which just gave up 59 points to UTSA and 41 points to BYU the last two weeks.  The Cowboys also only scored 21 points against FCS Northern Colorado and 10 points against Central Michigan.

Wyoming does have a solid defense that will hold North Dakota State in check enough for us to cash this UNDER 46 ticket.  The Cowboys allow just 20.5 points per game this season.  They held Hawaii to 10 points last week at home.  It will be windy with 10-15 MPH winds for this one, which will affect passing and kicking games and slow down both offenses.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida/Missouri OVER 56.5

Florida is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the country behind coordinator Buster Faulkner.  The Gators are 3-1 OVER in all games this season going over the total by an average of 26 points per game.  They went for 87 combined points with FAU, 83 with Auburn and 80 with Ole Miss.  This total of 56.5 is too low for a game involving the Gators, who are going to get their points against everyone.

Florida is averaging 53.5 points per game, 532.8 yards per game and 7.6 yards per play.  RB Jadan Baugh has 600 rushing yards and 11 TD already while averaging 7.2 per carry.  His backup Duke Clark has rushed for 259 yards and 3 scores at 8.1 per carry.  QB Aaron Philo followed Faulkner from Georgia Tech.  He is completing 72.4% of his passes with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for three scores.

I like Missouri QB Austin Simmons, who beat out Trinidad Chambliss at Ole Miss last year before getting hurt.  He is one of the most talented QB's the Tigers have had in a long time.  Simmons has a 11-to-0 TD/INT ratio this season and is stretching the field with a lot of deep passes outside the numbers.  Cayden Lee and Donovan Olugbode has combined for 46 receptions, 708 receiving yards and 9 TD from Simmons as a proven duo.

Missouri went for 68 combined points with Pine Bluff and 59 points with Kansas in its first two games before playing a grinder against a Troy team with a good defense but a limited offense that also plays slow.  Last week's 31-24 loss to Ole Miss finished with 55 combined points but should have finished with more considering the teams combined for 913 yards of total offense.  That game staying under the 58.5-point total is providing us value to back the OVER at 56.5 against Florida this week, a team with a better offense than Mississippi State.

Both defenses have looked vulnerable in SEC play.  Florida allowed 39 points to Auburn, which is an Auburn offense that has been underwhelming against everyone else.  They allowed 7.0 yards per play to Ole Miss last week.  Missouri allowed 499 yards and 6.4 per play against Mississippi State last week.  That was really the only offense they played with a pulse thus far.  Florida will get what it wants offensively against this Missouri defense that lost a lot of talent to the NFL and brought back just two starters this season.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation in Columbia.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Ohio State/Iowa Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +14.5

Iowa is one team that you can't use advanced stats on or common stats to handicap its games.  The Hawkeyes do the little things well, which is special teams, field position and turnovers that often get overlooked in the betting market.  They have a way of playing to their level of competition, which is why they can beat anyone and lose to anyone, but overall it's a winning strategy that has worked wonders for Kirk Ferentz for years.

The Hawkeyes are a sleeper to win the Big Ten this season.  They finally have a legit offense which was evidenced by putting up 507 yards on Northern Illinois in a 40-0 victory.  They led 33-0 by halftime before calling off the dogs and still put up 507 yards.

They also beat Northern Iowa 55-0 behind 640 total yards.  I know it's an FCS team, but Iowa's offense is improved and wouldn't have put up that many points and yards on NIU and Northern Iowa in the past.  I think their 16-13 win over Iowa State has them undervalued.  That rivalry game is always close, and Iowa State is better than most anticipated.

I backed Iowa +5.5 last week with success against Michigan.  They had the cover in the bag, but went 90 yards on the final drive and won on a walk off dime from Hank Brown in his best throw of the season in a 20-19 win in Ann Arbor.  That's the type of play and throw that will give Brown a ton of confidence moving forward in this Big 12 season.  He actually has legit weapons in WR Diaz and TE Vonnahme, who have NFL futures.

This Iowa rushing attack is as good as it has been in a long time with a deep stable of RB's and one of the best offensive lines in the country.  The Hawkeyes are rushing for 215.5 yards per game and 6.5 per carry.  They have the usual elite Phil Parker defense, holding opponents to 8.0 points per game, 239.8 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season.

This Ohio State defense is not as good as most years with 6 draft picks lost.  The Buckeyes are especially sub-par along the defensive line, and I give Iowa's offensive line the advantage here.  Ohio State allowed a big 2H comeback by Texas in a 24-23 loss.  But most concerning was allowing 462 yards and 6.5 per play to Illinois last week.  They allowed 199 rushing yards and 6.0 per carry to the Fighting Illini, so Iowa will have plenty of success on the ground with a better rushing attack than Illinois and Texas.

Iowa's defense is vulnerable to dual-threat QB's like Bryce Underwood of Michigan, who had one of the best games of his career against Iowa in a losing effort.  The Hawkeyes are much better against pocket QB's like Julian Sayin of Ohio State.  He has just 7 rushing yards on the season.  That's one less thing this Iowa defense has to worry about.  Their sole focus will be stopping WR Jeremiah Smith, who is having a Heisman-caliber seasons.  But there's a big drop off from him to their No. 2 receiver.  He has 20 more receptions and 452 more receiving yards than Devin McCuin.

Kinnick Stadium provides one of the biggest home-field advantages in the country for the Hawkeyes.  Just last year, Iowa only lost 20-15 as 9-point dogs to eventual national champion Indiana at home.  Also last year, Iowa lost 18-16 as 6-point home dogs to Oregon, one of the best teams in the country.  Now the Hawkeyes will give Ohio State a run for its money as 14.5-point home dogs, a much bigger number than those two big home games last year.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* White Sox/Guardians ALDS Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +135

The Chicago White Sox have a big advantage on offense over the Cleveland Guardians.  They are scoring 4.8 runs per game compared to 4.2 runs per game for the Guardians.  Cleveland was fortunate in close games this season, and its luck will run out in the playoffs, starting with Game 1 of this series with the White Sox.  Cleveland may be rusty too after not playing a meaningful game in a week.

Chicago outscored Houston 13-6 while sweeping the ALWC series.  They didn't look intimidated at all and looked like they belong.  Now they have their sights set on revenge on the Guardians, who stole the division from them.  This will be the ultimate revenge to knock them out of the playoffs.

The White Sox opened Game 1 against Houston with reliever Hagen Smith.  He went 3 shutout innings to get the White Sox off to a great start in that series and looked ready for the moment.  He is one of the top prospects for the White Sox and a future star in their rotation.  Smith has posted a 1.16 ERA and 0.94 WHIP this season, allowing just 4 earned runs and one homer in 31 innings with 42 K's.

No question Parker Messick is the ace of the Guardians at 12-9 with a 2.56 ERA in 32 starts this season, including 5-4 with a 2.90 ERA in 16 home starts.  But the White Sox are very familiar with him.  In fact, this will be his 5th start against the White Sox this season alone.  That is to Chicago's advantage having seen him this many times, and they have hit 3 homers off him in his last two starts.  Bet the White Sox in Game 1 Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama/Mississippi State OVER 59.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams with elite offenses square off in Starkville Saturday in what should be an absolute shootout.  Alabama is 4-0 OVER in all games this season with 67 or more combined points in three of its four games.  Kalen DeBoer has this offense humming.

The Crimson Tide are averaging 48.0 points per game and 7.1 yards per play this season.  They finally have a running game this season averaging 188.3 rushing yards per game.  It helps having a dual-threat QB in sophomore Keelon Russell.  He is competing 70.9% of his passes for 1,129 yards and 8 TD, while also rushing for 168 yards and 3 TD.

Jeff Lebby has this Mississippi State offense humming per usual.  The Bulldogs rank 6th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  He has possibly the best QB in program history in Kamario Taylor, who is completing 69.2% of his passes for 1,192 yards with a 14-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  Taylor has also rushed for 185 yards and a score.  He leads a Mississippi State offense scoring 43.0 points per game, averaging 533.3 yards per game and 7.5 per play.

Alabama has scored at least 45 points in all four games this season despite playing Kentucky, FSU and South Carolina already.  The Crimson Tide will get their points in this one, too.  Mississippi State has scored at least 31 points in all four games despite facing Minnesota, South Carolina and Missouri already.  I expect both teams to get 30-plus in this one as this sails OVER the 59.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia +3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones took a ton of money again this week.  They opened around +1 and were bet up to -3.5-point favorites as of the time I submitted this pick.  This comes after opening around +12.5 and being bet down to +7.5 last week against Utah.  That money was dead wrong.  This money will be dead wrong, too.

I think Iowa State is getting too much respect for blowout wins over FCS SE Missouri State and Bowling Green, which is one of the worst teams in all of FBS.  They also played Iowa close, but that's a rivalry game that is played close almost every year.  They had it handed to them by Utah last week.

Utah beat Iowa State 31-17 in Ames.  The Utes jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back.  They averaged 6.8 yards per play on offense compared to 4.3 yards per play for Iowa State offensively.  Most concerning were the 28 missed tackles by Iowa State defensively in that game that allowed the Utes to rush for 205 yards and 6.2 per carry.

Those missed tackles will be a problem again this week against a run-heavy, fast-paced West Virginia offense that will keep coming and test the depth of this Iowa State defense, which isn't very good.  The Mountaineers are averaging 294.8 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry this season despite a tough schedule.  That includes 247 rushing yards in their 38-27 win over Virginia and 335 rushing yards in their 41-24 loss to Oklahoma State last week.

And that 41-24 loss to the Cowboys is what has the Mountaineers underred.  Keep in mind Oklahoma State beat Oregon too and had better numbers against Oregon.  The weakness of this WVU defense is its pass defense, and Oklahoma State lit it up for 389 passing yards.  Well, Iowa State has one of the worst passing offenses in the Big 12.

The Cyclones are only averaging 164.8 passing yards per game this season.  Jaylen Raynor is only completing 54.3% of his passes despite a ton of dump offs to running backs.  He's just not a very accurate passer, and the Cyclones don't have the talent at receiver to exploit this WVU pass defense.  Their leading receiver has 156 yards through four games.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

20* Pitt/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech -3

I love the spot for Virginia Tech this week.  With a 4-0 start under James Franklin, Hokie fans are back and excited for this team for the first time in years.  Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and it will be a raucous atmosphere for a Friday night home game in Blacksburg.  Home-field advantage is worth more than 3 points in this situation, and I think these are two pretty evenly-matched teams, so getting the Hokies -3 is a great value.

Virginia Tech has opened 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season.  After blowout wins over VMI 73-3 and ODU 44-21, the Hokies went on the road and beat Maryland 35-26 as 2.5-point favorites.  I think Maryland quit last week against UCLA and was hungover from the loss to rival VA Tech and just didn't show up, so I'm throwing out that result.

I'm also throwing out the 21-14 win at Boston College last week where the Hokies were life and death with the Eagles.  That game was played in a monsoon and allowed Boston College to stay competitive in the poor weather.  The Hokies still outgained the Eagles by 109 yards in the win.  It was a tough spot for them too in a bit of a letdown after the Maryland win.  The Hokies will have no problem getting back up to face Pitt this week.

Pitt's numbers are inflated right now due to an easy schedule with 4 straight home games to open the season.  Blowout wins over Miami Ohio and Bucknell have really inflated those numbers.  QB Mason Heintschel threw all 13 of his TD passes in those two games, and he didn't throw a single TD pass in the two games he played against teams with a pulse.

Pitt was unimpressive in a 12-7 win over UCF as 7-point home favorites.  Pitt beat Syracuse 27-13 as 10.5-point home favorites, but that game was much closer than the final score.  The Panthers only outgained the Orange by 21 yards.  This is a big step up in class for the Panthers and their first true road game of the season in the most hostile atmosphere they will face all season.  Heintschel has tended to make big mistakes in their biggest games over the last two seasons, and I think he will serve up VT a couple turnovers in this one that will be the difference.

The best unit on the field is Virginia Tech's defensive line and front seven in general.  The Hokies rank 1st in the nation in tackles for loss (45), 1st in line yards per rush and 1st in havoc created.  They will make life difficult on Pitt's rushing attack, and thus force the Panthers to be one-dimensional and capitalize on Hentschel's mistakes.

The Hokies have a veteran QB in Ethan Grunkenmeyer who is not going to make the big mistake.  He is completing 74.3% of his passes with a 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio this season.  RB Overton is a stud with 409 rushing yards and 4 TD on 6.8 per carry.  The Hokies have one of the best TE's in the country in Luke Reynolds, who has 30 receptions for 280 yards and 4 TD. And WR Que'Sean Brown has 26 receptions for 224 yards and a score.  Pitt has great defensive numbers, but hasn't really been tested yet like it will be by the Hokies this week.  Bet Virginia Tech Friday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Western Kentucky/New Mexico State OVER 57

Western Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Hilltoppers have gone 3-1 OVER in their four games this season finishing with 63 combined points with Nevada, 90 with Georgia and 59 with Mercyhurst.  The defense is alarmingly bad allowing 41 points per game, 439 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play.

New Mexico State has played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses.  The Aggies are still allowing 29.8 points per game despite that fact.  They lost 34-17 to Florida State, 29-19 to Hawaii and 42-18 to New Mexico.  They beat Mercyhurst 51-14.

Western Kentucky has also played a brutal schedule with three road games at Nevada, Georgia and Indiana to open the season.  They got blown out in all three games and didn't show much offensively especially in the 2H of those games going slower than they normally do offensively.

Both offenses take a big step down in class here against these opposing defenses and should have their way tonight.  I also like the fact that these are two up-tempo offenses.  NMSU ranks 12th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.6 seconds, while WKU ranks 16th snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds.  Look for WKU to play even faster now in conference play.

This New Mexico State offense has been solid despite a tough schedule of opposing defense.  They went for 17 points and 319 yards against FSU, 530 yards against Mercyhurts, 398 yards and 6.2 per play against Hawaii and 400 yards and 5.8 per play against New Mexico, which held Oklahoma to 14 points on the road the week prior.

With both offenses playing fast there will be a ton of possessions in this game and more opportunities for points.  The forecast also looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, single-digit winds and no precipitation tonight in Las Cruces.  The OVER is 2-1 in the last three meetings with 67, 69 and 51 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Cubs/Padres NLWC Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego -129

The San Diego Padres were one of the best teams in baseball over the final four months of the season.  They closed the season going 18-3 in their last 21 games overall.  They have the best bullpen in baseball for my money, and that's going to be big in the postseason.  Their offense came to life scoring at least 4 runs in 17 of their final 19 games, including 7 runs or more in 12 of their last 18 contests.

The Cubs have gone ice cold at the plate down the stretch scoring a total of 15 runs in their last seven games for an average of just 2.1 runs per game.  Their offense was their strength as they have a suspect rotation and bullpen.  That strength is now a big question mark in this series.

We saw that play out in Game 1 with the Padres beating the Cubs 8-0.  They had 13 hits compared to just 3 for Chicago.  The blowout nature of the win allowed the Padres to save all of their top bullpen arms for Game 2.  Miller, Morejon and Rodriquez are all fresh and ready to close out this game for San Diego.

Nick Pivetta is 3-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in eight starts for the Padres this season.  He was great down the stretch with a 1.25 ERA in his last five starts while allowing just 3 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings.  The Padres went 5-0 in his last five starts. Pivetta is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career home starts against Chicago.

I'll gladly fade Kevin Gausman and this suspect Chicago bullpen.  Gausman is 9-12 with a 4.56 ERA in 32 starts this season, including 4-7 with a 5.40 ERA in 14 road starts.  Gausman has a 5.27 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 16 earned runs and 8 homers in 27 1/3 innings.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 6 innings of a 5-4 loss to the Padres in his lone start against them this season.  Bet the Padres Wednesday.

20* Cubs/Padres NLWC Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego -121

The San Diego Padres were one of the best teams in baseball over the final four months of the season.  They have the best bullpen in baseball for my money, and that's going to be big in the postseason.  Their offense came to life scoring at least 4 runs in 16 of their final 18 games, including 7 runs or more in 11 of their final 17 contests.

The Cubs went ice cold at the plate down the stretch scoring a total of 15 runs in their final six games for an average of just 2.5 runs per game.  Their offense was their strength as they have a suspect rotation and bullpen.  That strength is now a big question mark coming into this series.

Michael King has never started against the Cubs which will work in his favor having the element of surprise.  King went 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA in 32 starts this season, including 6-4 with a 2.74 ERA in 15 home starts.  He is backed by an elite San Diego bullpen with a 2.68 ERA at home this season.

I'll gladly fade left Matt Boyd as the Padres have been at their best against southpaws this season.  They lit up Boyd for 8 earned runs and 18 base runners in 9 innings in two starts against them in 2026 alone.  He is backed by a mediocre Chicago bullpen with a 3.90 ERA this season.  Bet the Padres Tuesday.

20* White Sox/Astros ALWC No-Brainer on OVER 8

The Chicago White Sox overcame a suspect rotation this season to make the playoffs.  They did so with an offense that scored 4.8 runs per game.  They are a dead nuts OVER team going 93-69 OVER in all games this season.  They scored 4 runs or more in seven consecutive games to close out the season.

The Astros also have a solid offense scoring 4.5 runs per game.  They rode that offense down the stretch to win the AL West.  The Astros scored 5 runs or more in six consecutive games to close out the season.  I expect both teams to get to 4 runs or more in Game 1 tonight.  

The White Sox and Astros will both make this a bullpen game.  Both pitching staffs are taxed after going all in down the stretch to try and win their divisions.  The White Sox were alive for the AL Central until after Game 161.  The Astros didn't clinch the AL West until Game 162.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Ravens/Cowboys NFL Brazil ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -3

This is a good 'buy low' spot on the Baltimore Ravens.  They are coming off one of their usual baffling upset home losses to the Saints last week in a 24-17 loss as 8.5-point favorites.  They had no business losing that game, but they found a way.

After blasting the Colts 41-23 in the opener and outgaining them by 255 yards, they fell asleep at the wheel last week.  They still outgained the Saints by 14 yards and 1.0 yards per play.  In fact, their numbers are elite this season.  They are averaging 409 yards per game and 7.1 per play on offense, and allowing 274.5 yards per game and 4.9 per play on defense.

The Cowboys are fortunate to be 1-1.  They lost to the Giants 28-20 in Week 1 and were outgained by 150 yards.  They beat the Commanders 37-20 in Week 2 in a misleading win.  They were outgianed by 57 yards by the Commanders, who lost starting QB Jayden Daniels on the final play of the 2Q when they were going into to score to tie it 17-17.  Even Marcus Mariota moved the ball at will on this awful Dallas defense.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 391.5 yards per game and 5.9 per play to the Giants and Commanders, two suspect offenses.  They are getting outgained by 103.5 yards per game.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in S Hooker, CB Durant, S Locke and CB Moore.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.

The Cowboys are allowing 173.5 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season, so the secondary isn't the only issue.  You can just imagine what Derrick Henry is going to do to them today.  The Ravens are rushing for 155 yards per game and 5.3 per carry this season.  Henry only had 5 carries in the 2H of the loss to the Saints, which was a mistake by the Ravens.  They won't make that mistake again and they will feed him as much as possible knowing that's their best path to victory.

Jesse Minter is an elite defensive mind and has made this Baltimore defense even better.  Just look at what the Chargers are doing defensively without him, allowing 26 points to the Cardinals and 26 more to the Raiders without Brock Bowers thus far.  The Ravens are almost fully healthy defensively right now and will do enough to slow down Dak and this Dallas offense.  

Lamar Jackson is 25-4 SU against the NFC in his career.  He is tough to prepare for and these NFC teams haven't been able to get it done.  The Cowboys won't be able to slow him down either, especially with the distractions and less prep time with a travel to Brazil.  But the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Ravens/Cowboys OVER 53

The Dallas Cowboys remain a dead nuts OVER team this season with a great offense and a terrible defense.  They are putting up 28.5 points per game this season and brought back their entire offense from last season that was elite.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 391.5 yards per game and 5.9 per play to the Giants and Commanders, two suspect offenses.  Even Marcus Mariota had success against them after taking over for an injury Jayden Daniels last week.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in S Hooker, CB Durant, S Locke and CB Moore.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.

The Cowboys are allowing 173.5 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season, so the secondary isn't the only issue.  You can just imagine what Derrick Henry is going to do to them today.  The Ravens are rushing for 155 yards per game and 5.3 per carry this season.  Henry only had 5 carries in the 2H of the loss to the Saints, which was a mistake by the Ravens.  They won't make that mistake again and they will feed him as much as possible knowing that's their best path to victory.

The Ravens went off to 41 points and 506 yards against the Colts in Week 1.  Zay Flowers only played the first half and had 5 receptions for 150 yards in the win.  He sat out the 2H and sat out the game against the Saints last week.  He looked good in pregame warmups and could return this week.  But either way, this Baltimore offense is going to be able to name its number against this Dallas defense to pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  The Cowboys will do enough to contribute to this total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/49ers UNDER 48

I like the UNDER 48 in this division rivalry between the Cardinals and 49ers.  These were two of the most injury-ravaged defenses in the NFL last season.  Both are much healthier this season and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.

The 49ers in particular have been elite defensively holding the Rams to 7 points and the Dolphins to 13.  And the Dolphins got their lone TD on a 77-yard bomb in the final seconds of garbage time in a blowout.  The 49ers had their backups in.

The Cardinals are allowing just 22.5 points per game to the Chargers and Seahawks.  They held the Seahawks to 7 points at halftime but let it get away in the 2H.  They finished with 40 combined points with the Chargers and 38 combined points with the Seahawks.  The 49ers finished with 34 combined points with the Rams and 48 combined points with the Dolphins.

The Cardinals managed just 151 yards and 3.4 yards per play against the Seahawks last week.  It won't get much easier for them offensively against the 49ers this week.  Having Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw back, plus Raheem Morris getting the most out of this secondary has made the 49ers impressive defensively.  

The 49ers have managed to get by offensively but playing the Dolphins helps.  They have a ton of injuries at receiver and will be without Aiyuk, Stribling, Robinson, Pearsall and Kirk who are all on IR.  Mike Evans will play through his injury, and Deebo Samuel is a shell of his former self.  They signed Brandin Cooks off the street this week.  This offense will have problems being very explosive.  It will be a lot of methodical drives for the 49ers with a run-heavy scheme.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tampa Bay Bucs +1.5

Teams that are 0-2 like the Bucs up against teams with at least one win have gone 43-22 ATS in Week 3 in their last 65 tries.  These teams like the Bucs play with desperation to avoid opening 0-3, and they tend to be undervalued after a poor start.  I think that's the case for the Bucs here as home underdogs to the Vikings.

The Bucs could easily be 2-0.  They turned the ball over 4 times that led to 24 points for the Bengals in a 33-27 loss on the road in Week 1.  They had another costly turnover in a 23-19 loss to the Browns in Week 2, blowing a double-digit lead in the 2H.  They are -4 in turnovers thus far, things that are easily correctable.

The Vikings are 2-0 but could easily be 0-2.  They beat the Packers in Week 1 despite getting outgained by 180 yards.  That was probably the most misleading final of the season.  They beat the Bears 9-3 in Week 2 despite getting outgained by 51 yards and benefitting from the poor weather and the injury to Caleb Williams.

Kyler Murray is back this week for the Vikings, but QB's returning from a concussion have been historically poor in their first game back.  They play more conservative than they normally would with the concussion in the back of their mind.  And Murray's legs are his biggest weapon as he has been a pretty inaccurate passer.  He won't be looking to run much in this game.

The Bucs are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  They have everyone available on offense and that wasn't the case last year for Baker Mayfield, who consistently had to play down a few weapons and offensive linemen.  He has everyone healthy now and should thrive this week.  The defense is healthy outside of LB.  I fully expect a big effort from the Bucs here to get the outright win with the wrong team favored.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Angels +145

The Seattle Mariners made a deep run in the playoffs last year.  Well, they just had their chances of making the playoffs come to an end with their 6-4 loss to the Angels on Thursday.  They followed it up with another loss to the Angels on Friday before winning Saturday.  With their lack of motivation, the Mariners cannot be favored here.  

The Angels continue to show up despite having the worst record in the American League.  They don't have incentive to lose, either being locked into their draft position.  They will show up for Game 162 as they have here down the stretch.

Yusei Kikuchi will get the ball for the Angels.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts with a 3.04 ERA during this stretch.  Kikuchi is 1-3 with a 2.11 ERA in seven career starts against the Mariners, including 0-0 with a 0.79 ERA in two road starts.

Logan Gilbert has not been good at home all season with a 4.58 ERA in 18 starts while allowing a whopping 25 homers.  He is 4-5 with a 3.84 ERA in 12 career starts against the Angels.  Gilbert has allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 11 innings in his last two starts against Los Angeles.  Bet the Angels Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Astros/A's OVER 9.5

Sutter Health Park in Sacramento has been right up there with Coors Field as the most hitter-friendly park in baseball this season.  The A's have gone 49-28-3 OVER in all home games in 2026.  The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket with the Astros today.  Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to center.

The A's will make this a bullpen game starting with Seth Johnson, who has a 6.19 ERA and 1.67 WHIP this season while allowing 22 earned runs, 5 homers and 54 base runners in 32 innings.  The A's have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 5.38 ERA overall and a 6.62 ERA at home.

Peter Lambert will be starting on just 2 days' rest for the Astros.  He allowed 4 earned runs, 2 homers and 8 base runners in 2 2/3 innings to the A's on Thursday.  The A's have a big advantage getting to see him fro the 2nd time in 4 days.

Both offenses should have their way today.  The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the Astros and A's at Sutter Health Park with 11 or more combined runs in all seven meetings. This total of 9.5 is too short again today and we'll take advantage.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jets/Lions OVER 48

The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They allowed 30 points and 469 yards to the Saints in Week 1 and 41 points and 446 yards to the Bills in Week 2.  They certainly have the worst secondary in the NFL in their current state with four starters out in Branch, Joseph, Maddox and Harper.

After playing outdoors on grass in their first two games of the season against two terrible offenses in the Titans and Packers, the Jets get to play indoors on a fast turf here and will have their best offensive output of the season.  I like what I've seen from this offense with 367 yards at Tennessee and 285 against the Packers.  They played conservative on offense with double-digit leads in the 2H of both of those games.  That won't be the case today as they'll have to play with more urgency offensively to try and keep up with the Lions.

Look for the Jets to go more pass-happy in this game.  Geno Smith is notoriously a great dome quarterback and had the best game of his career against the Lions a few years ago in Detroit.  Smith has some legit weapons in New York with RB Breece Hall, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Adonai Mitchell and TE Kenyon Sadiq.  He also has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL this season.

The Lions still have an elite offense scoring 31 points against the Saints and 31 against the Bills the first two weeks.  They get two starting offensive linemen back this week and are back to close to full strength up front.  This will be by far the best offense the Jets have faced this season.  The Lions will get their points as they always do in dome games to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 48 ticket.  

The Lions are 31-12 OVER as home favorites over the last 10 seasons.  Geno Smith is 18-7 OVER in dome games in his career.  Dan Campbell and Jared Goff are 21-8 OVER in home games with totals of less than 50 as a duo.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7

The Washington Commanders are completely broken.  They just lost starting QB Jayden Daniels to another dislocated elbow last week in a 37-20 loss to the Cowboys.  We are getting Marcus Mariota now, and he is one of the worst backups in the NFL.  But there's cluster injuries everywhere for the Commanders that will make it hard for them to be competitive at least this week against the defending champs.

The Commanders are without QB Daniels, TE Okonkwo, LT Tunsil and RG Cosmi on offense.  Those are their two best offensive linemen, and they have a Bottom 3 offensive line in their current state which will give Mariota almost zero chance of being successful.

The Commanders came into the season with one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  It has gotten worse due to injuries to green dot LB Frankie Luvu and their leader in the secondary in SS Nick Cross.  They allowed 37 points to the Cowboys last week, and the Seahawks will get whatever they want offensively this week.

The Seahawks were able to beat the Patriots 13-10 in Week 1 despite losing Sam Darnold in the 1Q and being without a couple key starters on defense.  Drew Lock came alive in the 2H of that game in a tough spot.  With a full week to prep for Lock, the Seahawks came back with an even more impressive 31-7 win at Arizona last week.  They had 381 total yards on offense against an improved Arizona defense.

The Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL this season.  They held the Patriots to 10 points, and then the Cardinals to 7 points, 151 total yards and 3.4 yards per play.  This came a week after the Cardinals went on the road and beat the Chargers by double-digits.  It was a great performance from Seattle last week.

Now the Seahawks get Sam Darnold back this week.  He is an upgrade over Drew Lock, though I was willing to lay -7 even with Lock as the projected QB earlier this week.  This Seattle offense is fully healthy now and will get whatever it wants against this weak Washington defense.  The Seahawks got back S Nick Emmanwori last week, arguably their most important defender with his versatility.  They have an elite defensive line that will overwhelm this terrible, banged up Washington O-Line.

The Seahawks are the ultimate road warriors.  They are now 20-2 SU & 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 road games.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo Bills -7

Joe Brady taking over as head coach has unleashed this Buffalo offense.  He now is in control and has gone more pass-happy especially on early downs to make this offense less predictable.  He is maximizing Josh Allen's talents and Allen is on track to win the MVP if he keeps playing this way.

The Bills went on the road and beat the Texans 36-31 in Week 1.  They had 409 total yards including 8.2 yards per play against what many feel is the best defense in the NFL in Houston.  Last week, they beat the Lions 41-31 at home on Thursday night football behind 446 yards and 6.7 per play.  They jumped out to a 21-0 lead and really took their foot off the gas late in that game on a short week.

Now the Bills have extra time to rest and prepare for the Chargers and to get even healthier.  DJ Moore went out early in that win over the Lions with a shoulder injury.  But he has been activated for Sunday and gives Allen that go-to weapon he has been missing in Buffalo.  Fellow starting WR Keon Coleman is also active after being questionable all week.  This is the best offense in the NFL for my money.

No question this Buffalo defense has some holes, but they are pretty healthy right now especially in the back seven.  DT Ed Oliver was scratched prior to the Detroit game.  He is expected to be active this week.  Defensive coordinator Jim Leonard runs a blitz-happy scheme to get pressure as much as possible.  That will work great against the Chargers, who have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL especially up the middle.

The Chargers are legit one of the worst teams in the NFL this season.  They lost 26-14 at home to the Cardinals as 8.5-point favorites in Week 1.  They were outgained by 125 yards by the Cardinals, who went on to lose 31-7 to the Seahawks last week and managed just 151 total yards.  The Chargers responded with another flat 26-14 loss to the Raiders as 6.5-point home favorites last week.

The offense is clearly broken with this offensive line and a lack of playmakers at receiver.  They are also down two tight ends due to injury.  But just as alarming is how poor this defense has looked without Jesse Minter, who is the head coach of the Ravens now.  They are without S Elijah Molden and NT Dalvin Tomlinson due to injury.  And this is just an aging defense that isn't very good.  Derwin James has to play with a cast on his broken hand as well.

The Bills are going to score and put up 30-plus points in this game again.  I don't think the Chargers are able to keep up, especially after being held to 14 points by both the Cardinals and Raiders, two below-average defenses.  The downward spiral continues for the Chargers this week.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Patriots/Jaguars UNDER 46

The Patriots are a dead nuts UNDER team with an elite defense and a suspect offense.  That has played out this season with the Patriots losing 13-10 to the Seahawks in Week 1 for just 23 combined points, and beating the Steelers 20-3 in Week 2 with another 23 combined points.  This total of 46 is double that, and it's simply too high.

This New England offense has scored a total of 23 points in two games.  Their defense scored one of their TD's last week against the Steelers on a sack-fumble.  Drake Maye has been terrible with a 1-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  A big reason for his struggles is the injury to WR AJ Brown, their prized offseason acquisition.  He remains out, and what's left is one of the worst WR rooms in the league.

The Patriots are likely to keep going run-heavy with their duo of Stevenson and Henderson.  Well, they will be up against one of the best run defenses in the NFL in the Jaguars, who could hang their hat on stopping the run last year and brought almost everyone back on D.  They have been stopping the run thus far as well allowing 95.5 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.

This Jacksonville defense held the Browns to 10 points in Week 1.  The Browns also scored their only TD in garbage time in the final minutes.  They held the Broncos to 20 points last week.  They will hold this New England offense in check, too.

The Jaguars do have a lot of talent on offense.  But I love the matchup for this New England defense.  Christian Gonzalez may be the best CB in the NFL and the Patriots will use him against Parker Washington as much as possible.  He shut down DK Metcalf last week and held JSN in check in Week 1.  Opposite him is another elite CB in Carlton Davis III, who has been upgraded to probable this week.  These corners will make life tough on these talented Jacksonville WR's, though Brian Thomas has been a major disappointment.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Jets +7

The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They allowed 30 points and 469 yards to the Saints in Week 1 and 41 points and 446 yards to the Bills in Week 2.  They certainly have the worst secondary in the NFL in their current state with four starters out in Branch, Joseph, Maddox and Harper.

After playing outdoors on grass in their first two games of the season against two terrible offenses in the Titans and Packers, the Jets get to play indoors on a fast turf here and will have their best offensive output of the season.  I like what I've seen from this offense with 367 yards at Tennessee and 285 against the Packers.  They played conservative on offense with double-digit leads in the 2H of both of those games.  That won't be the case today as they'll have to play with more urgency offensively to try and keep up with the Lions.

Look for the Jets to go more pass-happy in this game.  Geno Smith is notoriously a great dome quarterback and had the best game of his career against the Lions a few years ago in Detroit.  Smith has some legit weapons in New York with RB Breece Hall, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Adonai Mitchell and TE Kenyon Sadiq.  He also has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL this season.

The Jets really should be 2-0.  They outgained the Titans 367 to 195, or by 172 yards in their 23-10 victory.  They outgained the Packers 285 to 199, or by 86 yards in their 20-17 loss.  Their defense clearly looks legit this season holding their first two opponents below 200 yards.  No question their defense will be the best the Lions have faced yet.

The Lions were actually outgained by 100 yards by the Saints at home and were fortunate to win in OT.  They wre outgained by 91 yards by the Bills in Week 2.  The Bills jumped out to a 21-0 lead, and the Lions got a lot of their yardage in garbage time with the game already decided.  This line should be much closer to 3 than 7 given how poor this Detroit defense is, making it tough for them to get margin because they can't get stops.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Astros/A's OVER 9.5

Sutter Health Park in Sacramento has been right up there with Coors Field as the most hitter-friendly park in baseball this season.  The A's have gone 48-28-3 OVER in all home games in 2026.  The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket with the Astros tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's at game time with light winds blowing out to center.

The A's will go with Jack Perkins, who is 3-12 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 16 starts and 20 relief appearances this season.  Perkins is 1-7 with a 7.05 ERA and 1.58 WHIP at home, allowing 47 earned runs and 14 homers in 60 innings.  The A's have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 5.31 ERA overall and a 6.52 ERA at home.

Hayden Wesneski is 5-2 with a 3.50 ERA in 10 starts this season.  He is 3-1 with a 4.39 ERA in five road starts.  The Astros have a very taxed bullpen right now and Wesneski isn't likely to go deep in this game.

Both offenses should have their way tonight.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Astros and A's at Sutter Health Park with 11 or more combined runs in all six meetings. This total of 9.5 is too short tonight and we'll take advantage.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Angels +139

The Seattle Mariners made a deep run in the playoffs last year.  Well, they just had their chances of making the playoffs come to an end with their 6-4 loss to the Angels on Thursday.  They followed it up with another loss to the Angels on Friday.  

The Mariners have nothing to play for now, and I expect them to not show up at all for the rest of this series with the Angels as a result.  With their lack of motivation, the Mariners cannot be favored here.  The Angels continue to show up despite having the worst record in the American League.  They don't have incentive to lose, either.

Rookie Kade Anderson is 2-2 with a 4.18 ERA in six starts for the Mariners this season.  One of those starts came against the Angels on September 14th, when Anderson allowed 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 6-4 loss to Los Angeles.

Ryan Johnson has been solid down the stretch for the Angels.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in nine consecutive starts, including one run or fewer in six of them.  In fact, Johnson has posted a 2.39 ERA in his last nine starts, allowing just 13 earned runs in 49 innings.  Bet the Angels Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Arizona/Washington State UNDER 48.5

The Iowa State Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.

New head coach Kirby Moore is trying to follow in Rogers' footprints.  He has Washington State playing slow again ranking 122nd in tempo, snapping the ball every 29.9 seconds.  It's easy to see why with this roster absolutely gutted in the offseason.

The result has been a 2-1 record to the UNDER and low-scoring losses to both Washington and Kansas State.  The Cougars lost 24-10 to rival Washington for just 34 combined points.  They lost 34-7 to Kansas State for 41 combined points.  And they beat Duquesne 48-7, getting to flex offensively finally against a lesser opponent.  But now they'll have to get back to a grinder this week against Arizona.

This Washington State offense is broken managing just 242 yards against Washington and 166 yards against Kansas State.  It won't get any easier against this solid Arizona defense that allowed just 19.3 points per game last season.  The Wildcats are allowing 17.3 points per game and 299.7 yards per game despite playing BYU.

Arizona's offense is in trouble with top receiver Gio Richardson out after suffering an injury early in the loss to BYU.  Richardson had 9 receptions for 113 yards in the opener against Northern Arizona, a 35-7 win that saw NAU score its only TD on a Pick 6 in the 4th quarter.  Noah Fifita is lost without him and managed just 17 points against BYU.  It will be tough sledding for Fifita and this Arizona offense this week, too.

Arizona is in no hurry either ranking 107th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 28.9 seconds.  This total of 48.5 is too high tonight for a game involving two slow-paced offenses who are both better on defense than they are on offense.  There will be fewer possessions and fewer opportunities for points as a result.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma State/West Virginia OVER 61

Both Oklahoma State and West Virginia want to play fast and put pressure on opposing defenses with the goal of wearing them out.  There should be a ton of possessions in this game.  Oklahoma State ranks 15th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds, while WVU ranks 33rd snapping the ball every 24.8 seconds.

Oklahoma State showed what it was capable of offensively with a 39-31 win over Oregon in Week 2.  The Cowboys gashed a very good Oregon defense for 554 yards and 6.7 yards per play.  They came back with 59 points against Murray State last week.

Rich Rod finally has an offense at WVU.  The Mountaineers put up 31 points quickly against Coastal Carolina in the opener.  They scored 52 on Tennessee-Martin in Week 2.  And last week was the most impressive, beating Virginia 38-27 for 65 combined points to improve to 3-0 OVER this season.

Oklahoma transfer Michael Hawkins has been one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  He is completing 68.4% of his passes with 5 TD's, while also rushing for 322 yards and 6 TD already.  Jacksonville State transfer Cam Cook is one of the best RB's in the country, rushing for 317 yards and 3 TD.

Eric Morris brought his best players from North Texas with him to Stillwater.  So far so good with QB Drew Mestemaker throwing for 882 yards and 8 TD, while also rushing for 106 yards and a score.  RB Caleb Hawkins has 261 rushing yards, and WR Wyatt Young has 218 receiving yards and 2 TD to go along with Justin Bowick, who has 281 receiving yards and 3 TD.  

There will be a ton of points in this game, especially with the forecast perfect for a shootout in Morgantown.  Temps will be in the 60's with no wind or rain to speak of.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin +10

Penn State is overvalued after opening 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS against one of the softest schedules in the country.  The Nittany Lions have wins over Marshall, Temple and Buffalo.  They have played the 125th-ranked schedule in the country.

Wisconsin is greatly improved this season thanks to finally having a QB in Old Dominion transfer, Colton Joseph.  He has thrown for 752 yards and 5 TD while averaging 8.8 per attempt, while also rushing for 82 yards and a score.  He is the first dual-threat QB Wisconsin has had in a long time, which opens up the entire playbook.

Wisconsin lost 41-13 to Notre Dame in the opener.  It was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  Two turnovers led directly to two quick TD's by Notre Dame.  The Badgers held the Fighting Irish to 350 total yards and were only outgained by 66 yards.  Many believe Notre Dame is the best team in the country.

The Badgers came back with blowout wins over Western Illinois by 27 and Eastern Michigan by 44.  They should still be very fresh for this game, and their offensive line is healthy now after it wasn't in the opener against Notre Dame.  I fully expect the Badgers to give the Nittany Lions a run for their money today.

Penn State WR Koby Howard has been an absolute game-changer.  He has 12 receptions for 344 yards and 2 TD while averaging 28.7 yards per reception.  He has found a great connection with QB Rocco Becht.  Well, Howard suffered an injury last week that will keep him out for this game.  That's a huge blow to this Penn State offense, which will be much more vanilla and easier to defend without him.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Penn State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 44.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 44.5 ticket between Wisconsin and Penn State today.  There will be 10-15 MPH sustained winds throughout, which will affect the passing and kicking games for both teams.

Penn State WR Koby Howard has been an absolute game-changer.  He has 12 receptions for 344 yards and 2 TD while averaging 28.7 yards per reception.  He has found a great connection with QB Rocco Becht.  Well, Howard suffered an injury last week that will keep him out for this game.  That's a huge blow to this Penn State offense, which will be much more vanilla and easier to defend without him.

I expect both defenses to have their way in this one.  Penn State is allowing 7.3 points per game, 201 yards per game and 3.5 yards per play this season.  Wisconsin is allowing 20.0 points per game, 289.3 yards per game and 4.7 per play this season.  And Wisconsin held Notre Dame to 350 total yards in the opener to show how good its defense can be.

Neither offense is in a hurry.  Penn State ranks 104th in tempo snapping the ball every 28.6 seconds.  Wisconsin ranks 102nd snapping the ball every 28.4 seconds.  This game will featured fewer possessions, and thus fewer opportunities for points.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 41, 26 and 32 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Georgia Southern +18

Georgia Southern opened with a 31-0 shutout win over Charleston Southern.  The Eagles followed it up with an impressive 22-7 loss at Clemson as 19.5-point dogs, holding the Tigers to just 347 total yards.  And last week they held a high-powered Jacksonville State offense to just 302 total yards.  This defense is legit.

Off a misleading 31-27 loss to Jacksonville State in which they outgained the Gamecocks by 67 yards, the Eagles are flying under the radar.  They already showed they could play with Clemson, and I fully expect them to give Houston a run for its money at home today.  This will be one of the best atmospheres every in Statesboro with a Power 4 opponent coming to play on their field.

I think this is a flat spot for Houston.  The Cougars just lost 28-26 to Big 12 favorite Texas Tech on the road last week.  It was a big effort, but the Cougars missed a 2-point conversion to send it into OT.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  I don't think they will be able to get back up off the mat this week, especially in this massive sandwich spot with another Big 12 game against UCF on deck next week.  They would be more than happy just getting in and getting out with a win rather than running the score up.

I expect this to be a defensive grinder between two top-notch defenses and two underwhelming offenses.  It's also worth noting Houston head coach Willie Fritz is a former head coach at Georgia Southern.  He loves the program, and he won't want to run it up on them.  I think Fritz will be in for more of a fight than he bargained for today.  Bet Georgia Southern Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Houston/Georgia Southern UNDER 57

Clay Helton is known as an offensive coach and that reputation has these Georgia Southern totals inflated dating back to last season.  Georgia Southern is now 7-2 UNDER in its last nine games overall finishing with 55 or fewer combined points in five of its last six.

Georgia Southern returned 6 starters on defense but zero starters on offense this season.  This will be Helton's best defense yet with seven of the top 13 tacklers back.  But this could be his worst offense.  Max Johnson never made it as a college QB and now he has found his way to Georgia Southern.  They have to replace a 1,000-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver, plus QB JC French who transferred to Cincinnati, and all five offensive linemen.

Georgia Southern opened with a 31-0 shutout win over Charleston Southern.  The Eagles followed it up with an impressive 22-7 loss to Clemson, holding the Tigers to just 347 total yards.  And last week they held a high-powered Jacksonville State offense to just 302 total yards.  This defense is legit.

But Max Johnson and this Georgia Southern offense have been underwhelming.  Johnson is completing 65.5% of his passes with a 2-to-1 TD/INT ratio and averaging 6.0 yards per pass attempt.  He isn't going to make the big mistake, and his conservative nature plays right into our hands here being the perfect UNDER QB.

Willie Fritz has this Houston defense playing great football since joining the Big 12. The Cougars allowed 22.9 points per game in his first season in 2024 and 22.8 points per game last season.  Despite playing two great offenses already in Texas Tech and Oregon State, the Cougars are only allowing 18.0 points per game ad 316 yards per game.

Houston features a run-heavy offense and isn't in a hurry.  The Cougars are averaging 41 rush attempts per game compared to just 29 pass attempts.  They have been in dog fights with Texas Tech and Oregon State, too.  If they get a lead they will just try to run out the clock in the 2H which will aid us in cashing this UNDER 57 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida -3

The No. 21 Florida Gators are favored over the No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels today for good reason.  The Gators are a legit SEC title contender this season that everyone is sleeping on.  The Rebels are overvalued after making college football playoff semifinals last season and beating LSU last week.

And that's the key here.  This is a massive letdown spot for Ole Miss off one of the biggest wins in program history over former head coach Lane Kiffin and the Tigers.  After such an emotional 32-24 win, the Rebels will be flat as a pancake this week.  They can afford a loss now after important, narrow wins over Louisville and LSU to start the season.

Florida is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS this season with a 66-21 win over FAU as 25.5-point favorites, a 52-3 win over Campbell as 50.5-point favorites and an impressive 44-39 win at Auburn as 2.5-point favorites.  Keep in mind Florida had a 475-220 edge in total yards over Auburn last week midway through the 4th quarter before Auburn padded its stats in garbage time with two late TD's in the final 6 minutes.  Florida really dominated that game.

Florida offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner is one of the best in the country and he is proving it.  Coming over from Georgia Tech and bringing QB Aaron Philo with him, Faulkner has the Gators scoring 54.0 points per game, averaging 544.3 yards per game and 8.0 yards per play.  The playmakers are elite for Philo at receiver, and they may have the best RB in the country in Jaden Baugh, who has rushed for 458 yards and 8 TD thus far.

No question Trinidad Chambliss and this Ole Miss offense are great as well.  But this offense took a hit with an injury to one of the best RB's in the country in Kewan Lacy against LSU.  Lacy is not expected to play today.  This Ole Miss defense is clearly vulnerable too after allowing 38 points and 469 yards to Louisville in the opener.  They only outgained Charlotte by 98 yards, and Charlotte is one of the worst teams in the country.

Florida head coach Jon Sumrall is 15-4-1 ATS in his last 20 games as a single-digit favorite.  Sumrall comes over from Tulane after taking the Green Wave to the college football playoff last year.  Tulane played Ole Miss twice last season, once in the regular season and once in the playoffs, losing both.  You can bet Sumrall wants his revenge here with elite players in the SEC that can get the job done for him.  This will be the 3rd time he has prepped for Ole Miss in the last year, so Sumrall and the Gators will have the preparation advantage.

Gainesville is back.  It's going to be a hostile atmosphere for this Top 25 matchup, and home-field advantage is worth a lot more than is being factored into this line for the Gators.  This will be the first true road game for Ole Miss and I don't expect it to go well for them.  They will be flat as a pancake today off the LSU win.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* Utah/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 48

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 48 ticket between Utah and Iowa State this afternoon.  It will be a sloppy field due to rain, and there will be sustained 15 MPH winds throughout that will affect the passing and kicking games for both teams.

The Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.

Rogers will have to do the same thing at Iowa State to try and make the Cyclones competitive.  His Washington State team had an elite defense allowing 20.2 points per game.  He brought his defensive coordinator with him that served under him at Washington State and also South Dakota State prior in Jesse Bobbit.  He also added offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, who ran a run-heavy scheme at North Dakota State.

The Cyclones lose all 22 starters from last season as everyone transferred with Matt Campbell to Penn State.  I like some of the talent Rogers brought in defensively and he will have a good defense this season and everywhere he goes.  But the offense is a problem outside QB Jaylen Raynor, the dual-threat Arkansas State transfer.  But it's not like the Cyclones are going to crush it offensively at all this season.

Iowa State played to my expectations in Week 1 in a 38-10 win over SE Missouri State.  The offense managed just 303 total yards including 108 rushing on 3.5 per carry against a FCS opponent.  The defense held them to 209 total yards, including 67 rushing and 1.5 per carry.  That game finished UNDER the 52.5-point total and shouldn't have even been that close given the stats.

Iowa State came back in Week 2 with a 16-13 loss at Iowa and just 29 combined points with a 42.5-point total for yet another UNDER.  The Cyclones were held to 255 total yards, but they showed their defensive chops by holding the Hawkeyes to 284 total yards and 4.8 per play.

I think last week's 55-7 win over Bowling Green has this total inflated.  Bowling Green may be the worst defense in the country after giving up 56 points to Nebraska the week prior.  Even this poor Iowa State offense had its way, while also being aided by a 100-yard kickoff return TD, a 66-yard punt return TD and several other plays that set up Iowa State with easy scoring opportunities.  That will not happen against Utah.

The Utes lost all five starting offensive linemen and several playmakers from last year's team.  But they have an elite defense as they always do, allowing just 8.0 points per game, 239.3 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play this season.  Their offensive numbers are inflated due to an easy strength of schedule with games against Idaho, Arkansas and Utah State.  Iowa State will offer much more resistance defensively than those three teams did.

Rogers has Iowa State playing slow just like he did at Washington State.  The Cyclones rank 134th out of 138 teams in tempo, snapping the ball every 32.1 seconds.  Utah is in no hurry either, ranking 82nd at 27.5 seconds between snaps.  Both offenses are run-heavy with questionable QB play in the passing game and lack of talent at receiver.  This will be the ultimate grinder and easily stay UNDER this 48-point total, especially with the forecast.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Iowa/Michigan Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +5.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a sleeper to win the Big Ten this season.  They finally have a legit offense which was evidenced by putting up 507 yards on Northern Illinois in a 40-0 victory.  They led 33-0 by halftime before calling off the dogs and still put up 507 yards.

They also beat Northern Iowa 55-0 behind 640 total yards.  I know it's an FCS team, but Iowa's offense is improved and wouldn't have put up that many points and yards on NIU and Northern Iowa in the past.  I think their 16-13 win over Iowa State has them undervalued.  That rivalry game is always close, and Iowa State is better than most anticipated.

Michigan's results have been much more concerning.  They should have lost to Western Michigan, winning 13-12 as 27.5-point favorites only after the refs somehow put one second back on the clock so they got a 2nd attempt at a hail mary, which they converted.

The Wolverines then went on to beat Oklahoma 17-10.  That's an Oklahoma team that nearly lost at home to New Mexico last week in a 14-6 win.  And Michigan was outgained by 26 yards by Oklahoma.  Then last week Michigan beat UTEP 52-17.  But that was a much closer game than the final score.  Michigan only led 17-14 at halftime and had to utilize a lot of energy in the 2H to pull away.  That's a UTEP team that also lost 51-0 to Oklahoma.

Bryce Underwood is one of the most overrated QB's in the country.  He is inaccurate as a passer and more known for what he can to with his legs.  But Iowa will be prepared for it behind one of the best defenses in the country and legendary coordinator Phil Parker.  The Hawkeyes are allowing 4.3 points per game, 176.7 yards per game and 3.2 per carry.

I actually think Iowa is better on both sides of the football.  They get some key players back on offense in RB Moulton and TE Vonnahme this week from injury.  They finally have a legit NFL-caliber receiver in Tony Diaz, who has 17 receptions for 201 yards this season.  They will test Michigan physically, and I anticipate Iowa to win the battle at the line is scrimmage on both sides of the football.  I also expect them to win this game outright in a game that could easily be decided by a FG either way.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Georgia SEC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 44.5

Two of the best defenses in the country square off today in this SEC opener between Oklahoma and Georgia.  I expect it to be the ultimate grinder with both defenses ahead of both offenses, and that's especially the case for Oklahoma.

Oklahoma made the college football playoff last season in spite of a terrible offense with QB John Mateer.  The Sooners allowed just 15.5 points per game last season despite the brutal schedule.  With seven starters back on D this season, they are elite again allowing just 7.7 points per game, 215.3 yards per game and 3.8 per play through the first three weeks.  Last year's leading tackler Kip Lewis (76 tackles, 4 sacks) is expected to return from injury this week to give the defense a boost.

I didn't think it was possible, but this Oklahoma offense looks even more broken this season.  They lost 17-10 at Michigan for just 27 combined points.  They only beat New Mexico 14-6 at home last week for just 20 combined points.  They are without two of their most important pieces on offense in LT Michael Fasusi and WR Trell Harris.

Georgia also has some questions on offense with leading rusher Nate Frazier and arguably their most talented receiver in Isiah Canion both questionable.  I think Gunner Stockton is a better runner than thrower, and he will finally be tested after one of the easiest schedules in the country thus far against FCS Tennessee State, Western Kentucky and the worst team in the SEC in Arkansas.  Georgia has been padding its offensive stats against some awful defenses.

Georgia has an elite defense that will step its game up this week.  The Bulldogs are allowing 13.3 points per game, 211.3 yards per game and 3.3 yards per play.  This despite them pulling starters in the 2H of most of these games thus far with them already in hand, allowing opponents to put up some points and yards late with the game in hand.  No starters will be coming out for this Georgia D today, and they will shut down Oklahoma to aid us in cashing this UNDER 44.5 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Hawaii -2.5

I love the spot for Hawaii today.  The Rainbow Warriors are coming off a bye week to get healthy and put two weeks of focus into beating Wyoming.  After losses to Stanford and UNLV to open the season, they came back with a sense of urgency in a 29-19 win over New Mexico State as 7-point favorites.  That's a NMSU team that gave Florida State all they could handle on the road.  That urgency will be big this week as they step back into Mountain West play.

Wyoming is one of the worst teams in the country.  The Cowboys are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season.  They lost 35-13 at Colorado State in their opener, a rebuilding Rams team with a first-year head coach.  They struggle with FCS Northern Colorado in a 21-13 win as 23.5-point home favorites in Week 2.  That's a Northern Colorado team that was coming off consecutive losses to Weber State and South Dakota to open the season, and followed up the Wyoming loss with a OT win over lowly Northeastern State.

Last week, Wyoming lost 24-10 at Central Michigan in a physical game.  Central Michigan rushed 59 times for 339 yards on Wyoming.  That's a CMU team that barely beat Colgate 13-10 the previous week as 18.5-point favorites.  They also lost 38-7 to New Mexico in Week 1.  

The Cowboys are now beat up and tired defensively.  They won't have much left in the tank for Hawaii today, and they just aren't good enough to do anything about it.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -9.5

Baylor lost in OT after a hail mary on the final play of regulation by Shedeur Sanders and Colorado on the road in 2024.  Dave Aranda and his remaining players have not forgotten, and they want revenge at home this time around.  I fully expect them to win by double-digits to cover this 9.5-point spread.

Baylor has opened 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS this season despite not having starting QB DJ Lagway, a Florida transfer, for the past two games.  They only lost 17-16 to Auburn as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral in the opener.  They outgained Auburn by 47 yards to show what they are capable of.  They came back with a 44-3 win over Prairie View A&M as 37.5-point favorites and a 36-19 win over LA Tech as 19.5-point home favorites.

The Bears will get a boost this week with the return of several key players, including QB Lagway.  WR Jadon Porter, S Devin Turner and LOT Logan Moore are also supposed to return from injuries this week.  The Bears are as close to full strength as they can be going into this game.

Colorado is a mess.  The 14-13 win at Georgia Tech in the opener doesn't look as good now after Georgia Tech went on to lose 45-24 at home to Tennessee.  After winning but failing to cover at home against Weber State, Colorado just got blasted 41-7 by Northwestern last week.  There is a ton of turmoil in that Colorado locker room right now.  

Deion Sanders has kicked off multiple players for conduct detrimental to the team.  This team just isn't that good as it is, and Sanders may be losing the locker room.  The Bears don't care and will look to kick them while they are down.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sam Houston +34.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one of the most overrated teams in the country after winning the down Big 12 last season.  They lost six NFL draft picks on defense and won't be nearly as good on that side of the ball.  They lost QB Behren Morton, their top two receivers and two starters along the O-Line.

Texas Tech brought in Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby to replace Morton at QB, but he got in gambling trouble and is out.  That leaves Will Hammond, who while still decent is a big downgrade at QB.  That was evident in a lackluster 33-10 win over Abilene Christian as 45.5-point favorites in the opener, failing to cover by 22.5 points.

Keep in mind Abilene Christian lost to FCS bottom feeder Lamar 21-14 prior to the Texas Tech game, and then lost 26-7 to Stephen F. Austin the game after Texas Tech.  So that really puts into perspective how poor a 33-10 win over Abilene Christian really was.

More concerning was a 35-24 win at Oregon State two weeks ago as 25.5-point favorites.  The Red Raiders were life and death with the Beavers and needed to score the final 14 points to escape with victory.  Oregon State actually outgained Texas Tech 472 to 352 for the game, or by 120 total yards.  The Red Raiders were extremely fortunate to escape with the win.

Speaking of fortunate, they escaped with another 28-26 win as 7.5-point favorites over Houston in their Big 12 opener last week.  They allowed 458 yards to Houston and were outgained by 33 yards.  Now this is a sandwich spot for the Red Raiders, who have another Big 12 game on deck next week.  They won't be preparing at all for Sam Houston State and just want to get out of here with a win.  They aren't concerned with getting margin, and I don't expect them to win by 5 TD's or more as a result.

Sam Houston State looks like one of the most improved teams in college football.  The Bearkats are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS covering the spread by a combined 58 points in the three games.  They lost by 3 at Troy as 16.5-point dogs, by 6 to Tulsa as 12.5-point dogs and beat Nicholls State by 59 as 21-point favorites.  Those narrow losses to Troy and Tulsa look much better now when you consider Troy nearly upset Missouri on the road lost week, and Tulsa upset Oklahoma State which upset Oregon.  The Bearkats outgained both Troy and Tulsa, too.

Sam Houston QB Landyn Locke has impressive numbers, throwing for 973 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.0 per attempt.  But the improvement on defense is most noticeable.  The Bearkats are holding opponents to 15.7 points per game, 290.7 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.  Locke will make enough plays to keep the Bearkats competitive, and the defense will hold this Texas Tech offense in check enough to stay within this inflated number in this clear flat spot for the Red Raiders.  Bet Sam Houston State Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels +121

The Seattle Mariners made a deep run in the playoffs last year.  Well, they just had their chances of making the playoffs come to an end with their 6-4 loss to the Angels yesterday.  The Mariners have nothing to play for now, and I expect them to not show up at all for the rest of this series with the Angels as a result.

With their lack of motivation, the Mariners cannot be favored here.  That's especially the case when they are up against the ace of the Angels in Reid Detmers, who is 6-8 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 31 starts this season with 204 K's in 179 innings.  Detmers has held the Mariners to 3 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in two starts against them this season.

Bryce Miller is 4-9 with a 3.99 ERA in 20 starts and one relief appearance for the Mariners this season.  Miller has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Los Angeles.  Bet the Angels Friday.

25* MLB TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Astros/A's OVER 8.5

Sutter Health Park in Sacramento has been right up there with Coors Field as the most hitter-friendly park in baseball this season.  The A's have gone 47-28-3 OVER in all home games in 2026.  The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket with the Astros tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's at game time with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center.

The A's will go with Jacob Lopez, who is 6-5 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 23 starts and three relief appearances this season.  Lopez was rocked for 10 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in his last start at Cleveland.  He has now allowed 19 earned runs and 5 homers in 12 1/3 innings in his last three starts for a 13.87 ERA during this stretch.  The A's have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 5.28 ERA overall and a 6.47 ERA at home.

No question Hunter Brown is the ace of Houston's staff.  But even some of the best starters have fallen victim to Sutter Health Park.  It's worth noting the Astros are starting Brown on only 4 days' rest after throwing 98 pitches in 5 innings against the Braves on Sunday.  Brown allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start at Sutter Health Park.

Both offenses should have their way tonight.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Astros and A's at Sutter Health Park with 11 or more combined runs in all five meetings. This total of 8.5 is way too short tonight and we'll take advantage.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +115 (Game 2)

The New York Yankees are locked in to the 4th seed in the American League and will host the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Round.  They have nothing to play for this weekend.  They are a tired team after playing 4 games in 3 days with the Rays last series.  Now they have to play a double-header today, and will almost certainly rest their top guys.  They don't care at all about winning these two games today.

The Baltimore Orioles continue to show up despite being eliminated from the playoffs.  They just swept the Blue Jays last series and had Thursday off.  So they have a major rest and motivational advantage against the Yankees heading into this series.  They have a chance to get back to .500 on the season if they sweep this series.

I'll gladly back Brandon Young as an underdog in Game 2.  Young is 9-5 with a 3.80 ERA in 27 starts this season, including 7-1 with a 3.27 ERA in 12 road starts.  He allowed 2 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 3-2 victory over the Yankees in his lone start against them this season.

The Yankees have yet to name a starter for Game 2 and will just be using all hands on deck.  But they likely won't be using their top bullpen arms.  They are giving rookie Beck a spot start in Game 1, and it will be low quality pitching for them in Game 2 as well.  The Yankees have so many injuries up and down their lineup and will be thin today.  Bet the Orioles in Game 2 Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals +125

The Washington Nationals continue to show up despite being eliminated from playoff contention.  They have gone 8-3 in their last 11 games overall.  They have the rest advantage over the Mets today.  The Nationals had Thursday off while the Mets played the Rangers on Thursday and will be traveling across the country from Texas.  They will be a tired team that does not care about winning Game 1 of this series at all.

The Nationals also have the advantage at the plate and on the mound tonight.  Andrew Alvarez has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has posted a 2.99 ERA in his 16 starts this season.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.  He held the Mets to 2 earned runs and 3 base runners in 5 2/3 innings in his last start against them on August 14th.

The Mets will make this a bullpen game that likely starts with Justin Hagenman, though they haven't name a starter yet.  They have a tired bullpen and won't be using several of their top arms in Game 1 of this series today.  Bet the Nationals Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +128 (Game 1)

The New York Yankees are locked in to the 4th seed in the American League and will host the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Round.  They have nothing to play for this weekend.  They are a tired team after playing 4 games in 3 days with the Rays last series.  Now they have to play a double-header today, and will almost certainly rest their top guys.  They don't care at all about winning these two games today.

The Baltimore Orioles continue to show up despite being eliminated from the playoffs.  They just swept the Blue Jays last series and had Thursday off.  So they have a major rest and motivational advantage against the Yankees heading into this series.  They have a chance to get back to .500 on the season if they sweep this series.

I'll gladly back Trevor Rogers as a big road underdog in Game 1.  Rogers is 10-11 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 29 starts this season.  He just allowed one run in 8 innings with 10 K's in his last start against the Brewers.

The Yankees will go with rookie Brendan Beck in Game 1.  He has allowed 7 earned runs in 7 2/3 innings at the major league level this season.  The Yankees have so many injuries up and down their lineup and will be thin today.  Bet the Orioles in Game 1 Friday.

20* Falcons/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Atlanta +5.5

There are a couple systems favoring the Atlanta Falcons that are in play in a big way Thursday.  Teams who started 0-2 against a team with at least one win are 42-22-1 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  These 0-2 teams play with desperation knowing how important it is to get their first win.

Teams like the Packers who are coming off an OT game and on a short week are 5-27 ATS in their last 32 tries.  We saw this play out last Thursday with the Bills blasting the Lions who were off an OT game against the Saints.  Single-digit favorites in this spot are actually 0-15 ATS in their last 15 tries.

The Packers are a tired, banged up team.  They just beat the Jets 20-17 (OT) on the road last week and now have the long travel back home to Green Bay to play on a short week.  They already have the worst offensive line in the NFL, and that O-Line gets even worse this week with two more starters in Zach Tom and Aaron Banks.  WR Jayden Reed suffered an injury last week that could knock him out for the season.  The Packers are also without their best defender in LB Micah Parsons and a key depth piece in DE Warren Brinson.  Both NT Javon Hargrave and DE Anthony Campbell are questionable as well.

The Packers were very fortunate to win last week.  The Jets held them to 199 yards and outgained them by 86 yards and should have won, but some poor coaching decisions allowed the Packers to get the win in OT.  Green Bay cannot run the ball averaging 64.5 rushing yards per game, which puts a lot of pressure on Jordan Love and the worst pass-blocking offensive line in the league.  They just aren't healthy enough to warrant being 5.5-point home favorites here.

It will be much easier for the Falcons to come back on a short week from a 34-3 blowout loss to the Panthers last week.  They basically pulled all their important players in the 2H of that game to keep them fresh for this Thursday game.  I think it will pay big dividends here for the desperate Falcons.

Cooper Rush has been the worst QB in the NFL and it's not close.  The Falcons were severely handcuffed with him as their QB the last two weeks.  But Michael Penix Jr. will make his return this week and give the offense a massive upgrade at QB.  He is one of the more underrated QB's in the league in my opinion and his chemistry with Drake London and Kyle Pitts has been awesome, especially London.

With Rush at QB, the he didn't even trust himself enough to throw the ball down the field to two of his best weapons in London and Pitts.  He simply checked it down to Bijan Robinson almost every time.  London and Pitts have a combined 7 receptions for 95 yards in two weeks.  That is unacceptable, and Penix will find them and find them often.  That should help open things up for Bijan Robinson and what is one of the better offensive lines in the league in Atlanta.

I also think the misleading loss to the Panthers has provided value on the Falcons this week.  They were only outgained by 54 yards in the 31-point defeat.  But they were -5 in turnovers including a pick-6 by the Panthers.  Penix has averaged 7.2 yards per attempt with a 12-to-6 TD/INT ratio in his brief career.  He has always been underrated dating back to his time with Washington in college.  He shows out and keeps the QB job in Atlanta as long as he can stay healthy.  Bet the Falcons Thursday.

20* Liberty/Coastal Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on Coastal Carolina +2.5

Wrong team favored here.  There's a reason this line hasn't gone to Liberty -3, a telling sign that the +2.5 on Coastal Carolina is the right side.  It's easy to see why when you compare how both of these teams have fared thus far.

Liberty has opened 2-1 this season.  The Flames lost 20-13 as 6-point home dogs to a rebuilding James Madison with a first-year head coach in their opener.  More concerning was the 24-23 win as 28.5-point home favorites against FCS Gardner-Webb in Week 2.  That's the same Gardner-Webb team that lost 35-17 to Austin Peay and 17-13 to Wofford in FCS play prior to that 1-point loss to Liberty.

Helping erase that stench was a 51-15 home win over Ball State last week.  But that's a Ball State team that is one of the worst in all of college football at the FBS level.  But I don't think the Flames are automatically fixed.  They were a big preseason favorite to win Conference USA last season and proceeded to go 4-8 as one of the most disappointing teams in the country.

Liberty came into this season as the favorite to win Conference USA again.  I think it's just a reflection of head coach Jamey Chadwell, one of the most overrated head coaches in the country.  Keep in mind Chadwell parlayed his success at Coastal Carolina into this job at Liberty.  And I think that's a hidden revenge angle here for Coastal Carolina wanting to put one on him for leaving them.

Another hidden angle is that new Coastal Carolina head coach Ryan Beard was at Missouri State last season.  Well, Missouri State upset Liberty 21-17 as 8-point dogs.  So he knows the Flames inside and out after facing him last year, and that will work in Beard's advantage prepping for them again here on a short week.

I'm extremely impressed with Coastal Carolina this season despite the 1-2 record.  The schedule has been tough outside of a 45-7 home win over Fordham.  But what really stands out is just how competitive the Chanticleers were in road losses to Delaware and West Virginia.

The Chanticleers only lost 31-24 as 21-point underdogs at West Virginia.  They actually outgained the Mountaineers by 12 yards and 1.1 yards per play in that game.  That's the same WVU team that just upset Virginia last week as double-digit dogs.  Coastal Carolina lost 22-14 at Delaware as 5.5-point dogs last week.  They were only outgained by 10 yards and the YPP was dead even.  That's a veteran Delaware team that just took SEC foe Vanderbilt to the wire in a 35-26 road loss as 21.5-point dogs the week prior.

I love Coastal Carolina QB Deuce Bailey who has a 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.4 yards per attempt despite the tough schedule.  He has also rushed for 82 yards this season to provide a dual threat.  I hate Liberty QB Deshawn Purdue, who has a 56.3% completion percentage and only 14 rushing yards on 19 carries despite the easy schedule.  He is inaccurate and not a dual-threat.

Coastal Carolina has one of the best home atmospheres in the country for all Group of 6 teams.  This will be an electric atmosphere for a Thursday night home game.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Coastal Carolina Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on DBacks/Rockies OVER 10

This total of 10 is pretty short for a game at hitter-friendly Coors Field.  That's especially the case with temps in the 70's and almost no wind.  The ball should be flying out today, and the way these two starters are trending both offenses should have their way.

Regression has finally hit Eduardo Rodriquez in a big way here late in the season.  He has allowed 13 runs, 10 earned, and 3 homers in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Rockies in his lone start at Coors Field this season.

The Rockies will likely go with Tanner Gordon and Jose Quintana in this game.  Quintana is 1-4 with a 7.86 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Diamondbacks.  Gordon has allowed 16 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Arizona for a 13.94 ERA.  Gordon has allowed 18 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts overall for a 13.88 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Astros +114

The Houston Astros are tied with the Texas Rangers for 1st place in the AL West.  The odd team out likely won't even make the postseason.  The Astros have a lot to play for and came up big in a 7-0 win at Seattle in Game 1 of this series last night.  Look for them to come up big again tonight.

While the Astros have a lot to play for, the Mariners are done for and they know it.  They are 5 games back with 5 games to go so would need a miracle.  I think they've already packed it in and it showed in getting shut out 7-0 last night.  Their offense has been lifeless scoring a total of 5 runs in their last three games despite playing two of them at Coors Field.

Ethan Pecko has been solid at 1-0 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in four starts and two relief appearances this season.  The Astros have one of the better bullpens in baseball to back him up when they are as healthy as they are right now.  It's all hands on deck for Houston from here on out.

George Kirby is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He is 9-11 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 29 starts this season.  Kirby is 1-2 with a 6.21 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing 26 earned runs in 37 2/3 innings.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 10-7 loss to the Astros in his last start against them on August 14th.  The Mariners have a poor bullpen with a 4.52 ERA this season.  Bet the Astros Wednesday.

20* AL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Angels/A's OVER 9.5

Sutter Health Park in Sacramento has been right up there with Coors Field as the most hitter-friendly park in baseball this season.  The A's have gone 45-28-3 OVER in all home games this season.  The books have failed to set these totals high enough all season, and they need to be 10 or higher.  This total of 9.5 is too short again tonight.

Walbert Urena is 1-8 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 11 road starts this season.  Urena allowed 7 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 9-3 loss to the A's in his last start against them, which came in Los Angeles.  The Angels have a 4.74 ERA on the road as a bullpen this season.

Jeffrey Springs is 4-14 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 28 starts for the A's this season.  Springs is 2-9 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 15 home starts, allowing 56 earned runs and 21 homers in 72 2/3 innings.  Springs has allowed 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Angels.  The A's have a 6.54 ERA as a bullpen at home this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Cleveland Guardians +122

The Cleveland Guardians are closing out the season like the veteran, motivated team they are.  The Guardians are 6-0 in their last six games overall to take a one-game lead on the Chicago White Sox for 1st place in the AL Central.  They have a lot to play for right now, and they should not be underdogs to the Boston Red Sox with Foster Griffin on the mound.

The Boston Red Sox are basically locked into the No. 5 seed in the American League with nothing to play for the rest of the way.  They are playing like it going 4-8 in their last 12 games overall.  What really stands out is how poor their banged up offense has been.  They have scored 4 runs or fewer in 11 of their last 12 games, including a total of 4 runs in their last three games.

Griffin is 15-5 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 30 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Sonny Gray, who has great numbers but will likely be on a pitch count today as the Red Sox try and keep their starters healthy for the postseason.  Their bullpen is down closer Aroldis Chapman, who has a 1.95 ERA and 34 saves this season.  The lineup is down several key players as well.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Guardians Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Mets/Rangers OVER 7.5

The Mets have gone 12-6-3 OVER in their last 21 games overall.  They have gone for 8 or more combined runs in 15 of those 21 games.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 12 of their last 17 games.  This total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the Mets right now.

The Rangers have gone 17-5-3 OVER in their last 25 games overall.  They have gone for 8 or more combined runs in 20 of their last 26 games overall.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 17 of their last 26 games.  This total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the Rangers right now as well.

Sean Manaea is 5-7 with a 4.93 ERA in 17 starts and 14 relief appearances this season.  Manaea is 4-5 with a 5.13 ERA on the road.  He has allowed 21 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings in his last five starts for a 6.83 ERA during this stretch.  Manaea has allowed 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Rangers as well.

MacKenzie Gore is 8-11 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 32 starts for the Rangers this season.  He is coming off an injury in his last start, and he has allowed 12 earned runs in 11 innings in his last three starts.  He is 0-2 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in his last five starts against the Mets, allowing 16 earned runs, 4 homers and 38 base runners in 25 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Guardians +116

The Cleveland Guardians are closing out the season like the veteran, motivated team they are.  The Guardians are 5-0 in their last five games overall to take a one-game lead on the Chicago White Sox for 1st place in the AL Central.  They have a lot to play for right now, and they should not be underdogs to the Boston Red Sox with ace Parker Messick on the mound.

The Boston Red Sox are basically locked into the No. 5 seed in the American League with nothing to play for the rest of the way.  They are playing like it going 4-7 in their last 11 games overall.  What really stands out is how poor their banged up offense has been.  They have scored 4 runs or fewer in 10 of their last 11 games, including one run each in consecutive losses to the Rays coming into this series.

Messick is 12-9 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 30 starts for the Guardians this season.  He has actually been at his best on the road, going 7-5 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 14 road starts.  Messick held the Red Sox to one earned run in 5 innings in his lone start against them this season.

Payton Tolle has been solid this season at 9-6 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 25 starts.  He is 3-3 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 13 home starts.  But I expect the Red Sox to be cautious with him and for him to be on a pitch count knowing they will need him next week in their wild card series with the Yankees.  Their bullpen is down closer Aroldis Chapman, who has a 1.95 ERA and 34 saves this season.  The lineup is down several key players as well.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Guardians Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Nationals/Tigers OVER 8

These are two of the more underrated lineups in baseball.  The Nationals are scoring 5.1 runs per game while the Tigers are scoring 4.5 runs per game this season.  Both lineups are basically fully healthy here to end the season.  This total of 8 is too short.

The Nationals will make this a bullpen game with Riley Cornelio serving as the opener.  He is 3-2 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.53 WHIP this season allowing 15 earned runs and 25 walks in 32 innings.  Rookie Jackson Kent will likely follow him, and Kent is 1-4 with a 6.40 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in seven starts this season.  The Nationals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 5.06 ERA.

Drew Anderson is 5-6 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 10 starts and 48 relief appearances.  He doesn't have one quality start, meaning he hasn't gone 6 innings allowing 3 runs or less in any start this season.  That will put a lot of pressure on this weak Detroit bullpen.

The Nationals and their opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in 20 of their last 23 games overall.  This total of 8 is very short for a game involving the Nationals.  The Tigers and their opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in nine of their last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Nationals and Tigers with 9 or more combined runs in all nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Tigers OVER 8

Note: I currently have no play on MNF between Giants/Rams and may not have one tonight. Puka Nacua being a game-time decision has me off the game. His status matters too much.

Two rookie starters go for the Nationals and Tigers tonight up against two of the more underrated lineups in baseball.  The Nationals are scoring 5.1 runs per game while the Tigers are scoring 4.5 runs per game this season.  Both lineups are basically fully healthy here to end the season.  This total of 8 is too short.

DJ Herz is coming back from Tommy John surgery and a setback.  He is 4-9 with a 4.16 ERA in 19 starts in his career in the big leagues.  Herz posted a 6.23 ERA in his four starts at the Triple A level in the minors this season.

River Ryan will make his first start for the Tigers after being traded by the Dodgers.  Ryan posted a 4.83 ERA in 10 starts at the Triple A level in the minors this season.  Both starters will be on a pitch count, which will mean big innings for both poor bullpens in this one.

The Nationals and their opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in 19 of their last 22 games overall.  This total of 8 is very short for a game involving the Nationals.  The Tigers and their opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in eight of their last 11 games overall.  The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Nationals and Tigers with 9 or more combined runs in all eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Commanders/Cowboys OVER 50

The Dallas Cowboys had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season.  They scored 27.7 points per game, averaged 391.9 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They are loaded again with QB Prescott, RB Williams, WR Lamb, WR Pickens and TE Ferguson all back behind a solid offensive line.  They literally brought everyone back on offense and will be just as potent again.

The Commanders get a healthy Jaden Daniels back at QB to start the season and he opens up everything for them offensively.  They added another weapon in Stefon Diggs, who had a big season for the Patriots last year.  The Commanders put up 22 points on the Eagles on the road last week which was a pretty impressive showing against one of the top defenses in the NFL.

The Commanders are in much worse shape on the other side of the ball.  They allowed 26.5 points per game in 2025, and head coach Dan Quinn is relinquishing play-calling duties to new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones.  It's going to be tough to see much improvement with the lack of talent on this side of the ball.

Injuries are now becoming a problem already for the Commanders with LB Frankie Luvu ruled out.  He has been the heart and soul of this defense and one lone bright spot on this side of the ball for the Commanders.  Luvu has had at least 86 tackles each of the past four seasons and played all 17 games each of the last three.  It's rare for him to miss a game, and he will be missed.

The Cowboys allowed 28 points and 394 yards to the Giants last week to show that their defense is not improved yet.  They lost two key starters in that loss to the Giants to add insult to injury.  LB DeMarvion Overshown and S Malik Hooker have been ruled out for this game.  There will be plenty of holes in this defense for the Commanders to exploit to contribute to this total.

But what I'm really expecting is a big bounce back from this Dallas offense.  They were held to 20 points against the Giants.  But they only possessed the ball twice in the 2H after the Giants did a great job of playing keep away with long scoring drives.  They only ran 52 plays for the entire game.  Look for the Cowboys to go more up-tempo this week, and they always thrive offensively at home indoors on the turf.

The Cowboys went 6-2 OVER at home last season with 51 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  That included their 44-22 beat down of the Commanders that saw 66 combined points.  The Cowboys are 12-3 OVER in Prescott's 15 career starts against the Commanders while going over the total by 5.6 points per game on average.  This total of 50 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Commanders/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -3.5

The Dallas Cowboys had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season.  They scored 27.7 points per game, averaged 391.9 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They are loaded again with QB Prescott, RB Williams, WR Lamb, WR Pickens and TE Ferguson all back behind a solid offensive line.  Now the Cowboys finally have a defense this season to compliment this offense.

The Micah Parsons traded opened up everything for the Cowboys.  Now they have two stud DE's in Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark.  They added another former Packer in LB Rashan Gary.  They used their first-round pick on S Caleb Downs, who was arguably the best defender in the draft.  They have a solid secondary now with Downs.  This should be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL this season.

Few teams are in worse shape than the Washington Commanders coming into the season.  Jayden Daniels won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2024.  That seems like ages ago now.  He went from 69% completions in '24 to 60.6% in '25, and his yards per carry dropped from 6.0 to 4.8.  He benefited a lot from Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator in '24, and now he'll have a new coordinator in David Blough this season.

The problem is the Commanders have one of the worst offensive lines in football.  They are relying on aging players at the skill positions in McLaurin and Diggs.  Daniels is also returning from an injury-plagued season as well and probably won't risk running as much, which takes away one of his biggest weapons.

The Commanders may be in even worse shape on the other side of the ball.  They allowed 26.5 points per game in 2025, and head coach Dan Quinn is relinquishing play-calling duties to new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones.  It's going to be tough to see much improvement with the lack of talent on this side of the ball.

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Cowboys after a 28-20 loss to the Giants on the road on National TV on Sunday Night Football.  The Giants did a good job of playing keep away from the Cowboys offense.  The Cowboys only had two second half possessions in the game.  Now the Cowboys go from being 3-point road favorites over the Giants, to only 3.5-point home favorites over the Commanders.  I have the Giants power rated higher than the Commanders, so this line is way off.

The Commanders are getting respect because they covered in a 24-22 road loss to the Eagles as 6-point dogs.  But the Commanders were held to 9 points through 3 quarters before making a desperate comeback in garbage time and padding their stats.  They scored two TD's in the final 10 minutes.  The Eagles got conservative and let them come back, which they have a tendency to do.  The Cowboys won't take their foot off the gas this week.

Injuries are now becoming a problem already for the Commanders with LB Frankie Luvu ruled out.  He has been the heart and soul of this defense and one lone bright spot on this side of the ball for the Commanders.  Luvu has had at least 86 tackles each of the past four seasons and played all 17 games each of the last three.  It's rare for him to miss a game, and he will be missed.

Dak Prescott is 37-11 SU & 32-16 ATS in his career against the NFC East, covering the spread by over 6 points per game.  Prescott is 20-0 SU in his last 20 games as a home favorites.  The Cowboys are 20-1 SU & 17-4 ATS as home favorites in division games over the last 10 seasons.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in home games against the Commanders over the last 10 seasons, covering the spread by 11.8 points per game on average.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/49ers UNDER 45.5

The 49ers enter the season very healthy defensively.  They have their three leaders in Bosa, Greenlaw and Warner all healthy to start the season.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL in their current state, and it showed in a 27-7 win over the Rams in Week 1 that saw just 34 combined points.  Many believe the Rams have the best offense in the NFL, and it's worth noting that was a healthy Rams offense as well that the 49ers just locked down.

But the 49ers have some serious questions with their playmakers.  They added the aging Mike Evans, and George Kittle is far from 100%. Deebo is past his prime as well.  They are without their best receiver in Pearsall, and the Aiyuk contract was one of the worst contracts in NFL history.  Kirk is out as well.  Things went from bad to worse when the 49ers lost another starting WR in rookie De'Zhaun Stribling in the opener.  He had a big preseason and earned his starting spot, but now he's on the IR.  And depth behind Kittle is a question now after Jake Tonges suffered an injury in Week 1 and has landed on IR.

The Dolphins may very well be the worst team in the NFL this season.  And a big reason for that is having arguably the worst offense in the NFL.  They paid QB Malik Willis too much and he is one of the worst QB's in the NFL.  He's a dead nuts UNDER QB with his dual-threat, and his legs may be a bigger weapon than his arm.  He also has zero proven playmakers outside RB De'Von Achane, who opposing defenses can key on.  The three starting WR's are Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell.  Gone is Mike McDaniel, and gone with him are WR's Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.  This offense is a shell of its former self.

But the Dolphins hired former Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley as head coach.  He will improve their defense, and Hafley knows his best chance to be competitive is to play like a triple-option team with time off possession and solid defense being the keys.  We saw that play out in Week 1 in a 27-13 loss to the Raiders that saw just 40 combined points and stayed under the 40.5-point total.  The Dolphins ran just 45 plays for 259 yards in the loss.  But the defense was solid, holding the Raiders to 290 yards and 4.3 per play.

The 49ers are 13.5-point favorites in this game.  They just want to get in and get out.  I can see this game playing out similar to the Rams game where they got a big lead and really sat on it, moved the sticks and ran out the clock.  This will be an extremely run-heavy game plan for the 49ers with all of their injuries at WR.  They will shut down the Dolphins, and this feels like another 27-13 type game similar to the one Miami just played with the Raiders.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Marlins/Padres OVER 8

The San Diego Padres have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch.  They have gone 10-0-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in all 11 games, and 10 or more in 10 of them.  They are going through their best offensive stretch of the season scoring 5 runs or more 10 of those 11 games, 6 or more in nine, and 7 or more eight times.

The Marlins have gone 15-6 OVER in their last 21 games overall finishing with 8 or more combined runs in 17 of those 21 games.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 13 games overall while also going through their best offensive stretch of the season.  This total of 8 is too short for these two hot offenses up against these two starting pitchers today.

Sandy Alcantara is 7-6 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 18 road starts this season.  Alcantara has really struggled of late, allowing 4 earned runs or more in four consecutive starts.  He has allowed 19 earned runs and 5 homers in 21 1/3 innings in his last four starts for a 8.02 ERA.  Alcantara has allowed 10 earned runs and 21 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts in San Diego.

Walker Buehler is 8-6 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 30 starts for the Padres this season.  Buehler hasn't gone more than 5 innings in any of his last four starts.  That puts a lot of pressure on this San Diego bullpen, which used six relievers in an extra innings win last night and many may not be available today, including Mason Miller who threw 1 2/3 innings.  The Marlins also used four relievers last night.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Cardinals OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Nationals and Cardinals today.  Temps will be in the 90's with light winds blowing out in St. Louis.  The Cardinals and Nationals have combined for at least 9 runs in six of their last seven meetings, and this total of 8.5 is too short today as a result.

Both bullpens are taxed after an extra innings game yesterday.  The Cardinals used seven relievers while the Nationals used six.  That will put a lot of pressure on both starters to go deeper into this game, and both are sub-par at best.

Jake Irvin is 2-9 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 19 starts and one relief appearance for the Nationals this season.  Irvin has allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Cardinals.

Rookie Quinn Matthews is 2-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in seven starts for the Cardinals this season.  This looks like one of his toughest starts of the season up against a Nationals team scoring 5.1 runs per game with one of the best offenses in baseball.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cubs/Reds OVER 9.5

The Chicago Cubs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 86-67-2 OVER in all games this season while scoring 5.3 runs per game.  The Cubs are 14-5-2 OVER in their last 21 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in 15 of those 21 games, and 10 or more in 14 of them.  The Reds have gone 81-70-4 OVER in all games this season while allowing 5.1 runs per game.  Both offenses should have their way with these gas can starting pitchers today.

David Peterson is 8-8 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 21 starts and nine relief appearances this season.  He has gone 3-4 with a 7.05 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in division games.  Peterson has allowed 12 earned runs and 31 base runners in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Reds.  He is 1-1 with an 8.03 ERA and 2.11 WHIP in three career starts in Cincinnati, allowing 11 earned runs and 26 base runners in 12 1/3 innings.

Rhett Lowder is 6-11 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 24 starts and three relief appearances for the Reds this season.  Lowder is 1-5 with a 7.19 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in division games.  He has allowed 16 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings in his last three starts.  Lowder has allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 8 innings in his last two starts against the Cubs.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Cubs and Reds with 10 or more combined runs in five of them.  Temps will be approaching 90 degrees with light winds blowing out at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park today to aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Steelers/Patriots UNDER 42

Both the Steelers and Patriots are dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Throw in the fact that temps will be in the 50's in New England Sunday with a 60-80% chance of rain and the weather will aid us in cashing this UNDER 42 ticket.

The Patriots have an elite defense that they rode to the Super Bowl.  They allowed just 17.9 points per game and 284.9 yards per game last season.  Drake Maye wasn't very impressive in the playoffs and was exposed.  The Patriots parted ways with his favorite target in Stefon Diggs, and replaced him with AJ Brown.  Well, Brown just suffered an injury in Week 1 against the Seahawks and is now on injured reserve.

The Patriots have one of the worst group of receivers in the NFL without Brown.  They have Doubs, DeMario Douglas and Mack Hollins listed as their starters.  They will likely try and ride their rushing attack until Brown returns because they are going to be limited in what they can do in the passing game.  We saw that against the Seahawks in their 13-10 loss.  Maye went 23-of-33 passing for 178 yards with one TD and 3 INT against Seattle.

They Steelers have a solid defense, but the offense is limited in what it can do with an aging Aaron Rodgers and a lack of playmakers outside DK Metcalf.  And Rodgers lost his favorite safety valve in RB Kenneth Gainwell in the offseason.

It was another ugly showing in Week 1 with the Steelers beating the Falcons 20-13 for just 33 combined points.  And one of Pittsburgh's two touchdowns came on a Pick-6 by TJ Watt.  The Steelers managed just 264 total yards against a weak Atlanta defense.  Rodgers went 24-of-40 passing for 221 yards with one TD without an INT.  And the leading receiver was Michael Pittman, who had 3 receptions for 58 yards.  Well, Pittman is out for this game now with an injury suffered in Week 1.

The Patriots held the Seahawks to 13 points and 285 yards.  The Steelers held the Falcons to 13 points and 238 yards.  Both defenses are much further ahead than the offenses heading into Week 2, and both defenses will dominate this game again.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Saints/Ravens UNDER 47

This total has been inflated due to both the Saints and Ravens going over the total in their Week 1 games.  There will also be some weather in this game with a small chance of rain and 10-15 MPH winds throughout.  This total has been bet down since I released it but it hasn't been bet down enough.  It's good down to 45.

The Saints are coming off a 31-30 (OT) loss to the Lions.  That game saw 48 combined points at the end of regulation before both teams scored TD's in OT.  The Saints actually held the high-powered Lions in check last week holding them to 369 yards and 5.1 per play, which was 299 yards at the end of regulation before Detroit's 70-yard TD drive in OT.

The Saints had 469 yards, which is adjusted down to 389 at the end of regulation when you take away their TD drive in OT.  But the Saints benefited from the Lions playing a lot of prevent defense in the 2H trying to protect a 21-0 lead.  They also benefited from the fact that the Lions are decimated with injuries in their secondary and have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.  The Bills just hung 41 points on the Lions on Thursday.

No question the Ravens were impressive in their 41-23 win at Indianapolis in the opener.  What they did in the first half when they were fully healthy was mighty impressive.  They outscored the Colts 31-13 in the first half with Zay Flowers going off for 5 receptions for 150 yards and a TD.  At full strength, the Ravens may very well be the best team in the NFL this season.

But Flowers left the game in the 2nd quarter with a hamstring injury and has already been ruled out.  Fellow starting WR Ja'Kobi Lane suffered a fractured wrist in the win and has gone on IR.  LT Ronnie Stanley and LG John Simpson are both questionable.  The offense won't be nearly as dynamic without Flowers, and this is a solid New Orleans defense that can hold Baltimore in check.

The Saints didn't have veteran DE Cam Jordan in their opener against the Lions.  Jordan is back this week.  The only injury question for them defensively is LB Chase Young being questionable.  WR Chris Olave got banged up against the Lions and left the game several times.  He is questionable and won't be 100% even if he does play.  That's big with Olave going off for 10 receptions for 182 yards against the Lions.

Baltimore has one of the best defenses in the NFL led by one of the best defensive minds in the NFL in Jesse Minter.  We saw the Chargers struggle defensively giving up 26 points to the Cardinals in their first game without Minter calling the plays.  And I think we see Baltimore's level of play elevated defensively with Minter calling the shots now.  They held the Colts to 251 yards and 4.9 per play in the opener, and this will be the best defense that Tyler Shough has faced in his young career.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.