Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-27-18 | Cardinals +105 v. Pirates | 6-4 | Win | 105 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
3* MLB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Cardinals + I like the value here with St. Louis at basically a pick'em on the road against Milwaukee on Sunday. The Cardinals snapped a 3-game skid with a 4-1 win on Saturday and are in great shape here to build off of that victory. St Louis will send out one of the most underrated starters in the game in Miles Mikolas, who is 6-0 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 9 starts. He's throwing like a legit Cy Young contender, but still isn't getting the respect of the books. Pittsburgh will counter with Jameson Taillon, who I think is overrated. Taillon is just 2-4 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 10 starts and was just rocked for 6 runs on 8 hits in 6 innings at Cincinnati in his last start. Take St. Louis! |
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05-27-18 | Angels v. Yankees -139 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
5* MLB Big Favorite PLAY OF THE MONTH on Yankees - I love the value here with New York at home on Sunday. The Yankees are one of the best teams in baseball at 32-16 and are going to be motivated here to take the rubber match against the Angels. New York will send out Masahiro Tanaka, who is also due for a strong outing. Given his history against LA, it's hard to not like Tanaka's chances of throwing a gem, as he's got a 1.60 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in 5 starts against the Angels. All 5 of those starts resulting in wins for the Yankees. It's the exact opposite story for Los Angeles starter Garrett Richards. He has had zero success against New York, posting a 8.46 ERA and 1.611 WHIP in 5 career starts against them. All 5 of those starts resulting a loss. The most recent came on 4/28, where he allowing 9 runs (5 earned) in just 1 2/3 innings before getting pulled. Take New York! |
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05-26-18 | Twins +122 v. Mariners | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
3* MLB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Twins + I like the value here with Minnesota as a decently priced road dog against the Mariners on Saturday. The Twins offense has struggled in their last two against the Tigers Michael Fulmer and Seattle's James Paxton, but I like their chances of breaking out of that slump tonight. I also think the Marines offense is going to continue to struggle here against Jake Odorizzi. Seattle has scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 straight games, yet are 4-1 in this stretch. You just can't keep winning without scoring and Odorizzi comes in red-hot with a 1.08 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Take Minnesota! |
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05-26-18 | Mets +146 v. Brewers | 6-17 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Mets + I like the value here with New York as a decently priced road dog against the Brewers on Saturday. Milwaukee is simply getting way too much respect here from the books. The Brewers will send out Chase Anderson, who has an ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.275 WHIP in 5 home starts and a 5.94 ERA in his last 3 outings. The Mets will counter with Jason Vargas, who finally got on track in his 4th start of the season. Vargas allowed just 2 hits with 7 strikeouts over 5 scoreless innings in his last start against the Marlins. While Milwaukee has won 4 of 5, the offense hasn't been great of late. The Brewers are averaging just 3.4 runs/game over their last 7 and are hitting a mere .216 against left-handed starters this season. Take New York! |
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05-26-18 | Braves v. Red Sox -118 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
4* MLB Early Bird HEAVY HITTER on Red Sox - I like the value here with Boston as a short home favorite against the Braves on Saturday. Boston owns the best record in the big leagues at 35-16 and have won 7 of their last 9 after taking the series opener against Atlanta 6-2 on Friday. This is simply too good a price to pass up regardless of the pitching matchup. That's definitely where we are getting the value here. Atlanta will send out Sean Newcomb, who is 5-1 with a 2.39 ERA in 9 starts. Boston will send out Drew Pomeranz, who is 1-2 with a 5.96 ERA in 6 starts. I just think it's only a matter of time for Pomeranz to get this turned around and he's facing an Atlanta offense that has been shutout twice in their last 4 games and scored just 5 runs during this stretch. Take Boston! |
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05-25-18 | White Sox +109 v. Tigers | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on White Sox + I like the value here with the White Sox as a short road dog against the Tigers. While Chicago comes in off a loss at home to the Orioles, they split the series 2-2 with Baltimore and are 4-2 in their last 6 overall. Detroit comes in off a win, but are a mere 1-5 in their last 6. Chicago has what I feel is a big edge on the mound. The White Sox send out Reynaldo Lopez, who has thrown much better than his 1-3 record would suggest. Lopez owns a 2.98 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in 9 starts. The Tigers will send out Michael Fiers, who hasn't pitched as well as his 4-3 record. Fiers owns a mere 4.57 ERA in 8 starts and just gave up 4 runs in 5 innings in his last start at Seattle. Take Chicago! |
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05-25-18 | Astros +137 v. Indians | Top | 11-2 | Win | 137 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Astros + I like the value here with the Astros as a decently priced road dog against the Indians. Houston has the second best record in the major behind only the Red Sox at 33-18. I know Cleveland has one of the best starters in the game on the mound in Corey Kluber, but the price is simply too good to pass up. It's not like the Astros are throwing out a scrub here. They are sending a former Cy Young winner of their own to the mound in Dallas Keuchel, who has a 3.43 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 10 starts. Keuchel is also dealing of late with a 2.25 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Not to mention he's 4-1 with a 2.30 ERA in 6 career starts against the Indians. The other big key is the Astros have a lot more offensive fire-power than Cleveland and are swinging the bat much better than the Indians of late. Houston is averaging 5.1 runs and hitting .279 as a team over their last 7. The Indians are averaging 3.7 runs and hitting .237 as a team. Take Houston! |
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05-24-18 | Royals +115 v. Rangers | Top | 8-2 | Win | 115 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
5* MLB Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Royals + I like the value here with Kansas City as a short road dog against the Rangers on Thursday. The Royals just took the final 2 games of their 3-game set at St Louis, so they are coming into this one confident and I think they could catch the Rangers a bit flat after their big series against the Yankees, which saw them rally late for a 12-10 win on Wednesday. Kansas City will send out Danny Duffy, who has been a major disappointment in 2018. Duffy is just 1-6 with a 6.88 ERA in 10 starts. Duffy is too good to keep pitching this poorly and given how well he threw against the Rangers last season, this could be his time to breakout. Duffy faced Texas twice last year and allowed just 1 run on 9 hits in 15 2/3 innings of work. Texas will send out Austin Bibens-Dirkx, who will be making his first start of 2018. Bibens-Dirx was called up from the minors and I just don't expect a lot from him. He was just okay in his stint with Triple-A and had a 4.67 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 24 appears (6 starts) last year. Take Kansas City! |
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05-24-18 | Mariners v. A's -108 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line HEAVY HITTER on Oakland - I like the value here with Oakland as a short home favorite against the Mariners on Thursday. The A's will be extra motivated to avoid getting swept after dropping the first two games of the series in painful fashion. Oakland lost the series opener on Tuesday 2-3 in extra innings and lost by a final of 1-0 on Wednesday. Most will look to back Seattle here with veteran Felix Hernandez on the mound against Josh Lucas, who will be making his first career big league start. The thing is, Hernandez gets way too much respect for what he's done in the past. He's got an ugly 5.53 ERA and 1.428 WHIP in 10 starts this season, which includes an ugly 7.27 ERA in 5 road starts. Lucas has pitched well in relief and the Seattle offense is in a funk, scoring just 3.1 runs/game and hitting .203 as a team in their last 7. Take Oakland! |
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05-23-18 | Red Sox -120 v. Rays | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
5* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Red Sox - I love the value here with Boston as a short road favorite against Tampa Bay on Wednesday. The Red Sox come in having won 3 straight after a 4-2 victory in yesterday's series opener against the Rays. I like their chances of keeping it going here with what looks like a very favorable pitching matchup. Boston will send out David Price. While Price hasn't lived up to expectations so far in 2018, he's coming in off his best start of the season. Price threw a complete game against the Orioles, allowing just 2 runs on 5 hits, while striking out 8. He'll be up against his Chris Archer, who has had an even worse start to the season. Archer is 3-3 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 10 starts. He pitched well in his last start, but has been extremely inconsistent. He's also had a miserable time when facing the Red Sox, going a mere 2-12 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in 20 career starts. Take Boston! |
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05-23-18 | Angels -127 v. Blue Jays | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Angels - I like the value here with the Angels as a short road favorite against the Blue Jays on Wednesday. Toronto won the series opener yesterday being another strong outing from veteran starter J.A. Happ. The thing is the Blue Jays haven't had much success of late without Happ on the mound. Toronto is 2-7 in their last 9 games and both wins have come with Happ on the mound. Great spot here for Los Angeles to bounce back an even up the series, as they will have a clear edge on the mound in this one. The Angels will send out the red-hot Tyler Skaggs against the struggling Aaron Sanchez. Skaggs has a strong 2.88 ERA in 9 starts and has saved his best for the road, where he's 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in 4 starts. Sanchez is 2-4 with a 4.47 ERA in 9 starts and owns a miserable 5.06 ERA in 5 home starts (1-4 team record). Take Los Angeles! |
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05-22-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
4* MLB Late Night Total NO-BRAINER on Rockies/Dodgers UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's NL West action that has the Dodges hosting the Rockies. We know the ball doesn't carry well late at night in LA and on top of that I think we have an underrated pitching matchup here. Colorado will send out Chad Bettis, who is 4-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 9 starts. As is the case for a lot of pitchers, Bettis is much better when he's not starting at Coors Field. He's got a 1.83 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 6 road starts this season. I think he keeps it going against a Dodgers' offense that has scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 straight homes games. Brock Stewart is getting the call up to start this one for LA. Stewart will be making his first start of 2018, but has started 9 over the previous 2 seasons. Considering the Rockies are hitting just .218 away from home and just .227 over their last 7, I think Stewart can give them 4-5 solid innings here and let the bullpen do the rest. Take the UNDER 8! |
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05-22-18 | Angels -101 v. Blue Jays | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Angels - I like the value here with the Angels at basically a pick'em on the road against the Blue Jays. LA snapped their 5-game losing streak with a 5-2 win behind a dominant performance from Ohtani on the mound. I like the Angels chance of carrying over that momentum and securing a win on Tuesday. A big reason for that is Los Angeles will send out the red-hot Garrett Richards, who has a 1.42 ERA and 0.789 WHIP in his last 3 starts. In his most recent outing he held the loaded Astros lineup to just 4 hits and 0 earned runs over 7 innings. Toronto will counter here with J.A. Happ, who is coming off a strong showing against the Mets, but has been a disappointment overall. Happ owns a mediocre 4.15 ERA in 9 starts and owns a 5.40 ERA in 6 road outings. On top of that, Happ has a poor history against the Angels. He's 1-6 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.572 WHIP in 7 starts. Look for LA to have a big day at the plate and bring home the win. Take Los Angeles! |
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05-21-18 | Yankees v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Yankees/Rangers OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Monday's AL action that has Rangers hosting the Yankees. New York has scored 6 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games and figure to have a great shot of another big day at the plate against veteran Bartolo Colon. While Colon comes in with a strong 2.93 ERA and 0.869 WHIP in 7 starts, he's got a mere 5.09 ERA in 3 starts at home. He's also got an ugly 6.11 career ERA against the Yankees. He faced them twice last year and gave up 10 runs on 15 hits in just 7 1/3 innings of work. New York will counter with Masahiro Tanaka, who hasn't suffered a loss in his last 5 starts. That's not to say Tanaka has been throwing it great. He's got a mere 4.86 ERA overall in 8 starts and a 4.15 ERA in his last 3 outings. While the Rangers were shutout yesterday, I think they can contribute 4+ runs here to push this thing well over the mark set by the books. Take the OVER! |
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05-20-18 | Indians +129 v. Astros | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
4* Sunday Night Baseball HEAVY HITTER on Indians + The value here is too good to pass up on Cleveland with ace Carlos Carrasco on the mound. Carrasco has 2.78 ERA and 0.925 WHIP over 5 road starts and is 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Astros. Houston will send out Lance McCullers, who has thrown the ball well so far in 2018, but there is some concern with his command. McCullers has walked 9 over his last 18 innings of work. His only work against the Indians came in Cleveland last year and it wasn't pretty. McCullers lasted just 5 innings after giving up 5 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks. Astros are an elite team, but are just a mere 1-7 this season at home when faced against a starting pitcher that is allowing 5.5 or fewer hits/start. Cleveland has also gone 23-8 in Carrasco's last 31 road against an AL team that has a team average of .255 or worse. Take Cleveland! |
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05-20-18 | Padres v. Pirates -119 | 8-5 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pirates - I like the value here with Pittsburgh as a short home favorite in Sunday's series finale against the Padres. The Pirates weren't expected to do anything this year, yet they are sitting 1.5-games back of the NL Central lead at 26-19 (4th best record in NL). Needless to say Pittsburgh has been a huge value play early on and I still think they aren't getting the respect the deserve. The Pirates will send out one of the most underrated starters so far in 2018. You don't hear much about Trevor Williams in the media, but he's 5-2 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in 9 starts. He's got an even better 2.22 ERA in 4 home starts. San Diego will counter with Jordan Lyles, who has created a bit of a buzz after his first 2 starts of 2018. Lyles has allowed just 1 earned run in 12 1/3 innings with an impressive 16-2 walk/strikeout ratio. However, both starts for Lyles came at home at spacious Petco Park. I think there's a good chance he takes at least a minor step back here. Take Pittsburgh! |
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05-19-18 | Diamondbacks -122 v. Mets | 4-5 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
3* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Diamondbacks - I like the value here with Arizona as a short road favorite against the Mets. Both offenses come into this one struggling, so I'm taking the team with the much better starter. The Diamondbacks will give the rock to one of the big surprises this season in Pat Corbin. He's 4-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.860 WHIP in 9 starts. The most impressive stat is the strikeouts, as he's fanned 75 hitters in just 57 innings of work. He should have no problem here keeping the Mets in check. Arizona's offense is due to breakout and today could be that day, as the Mets send out Steven Matz, who is just 1-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in 7 starts. Matz also has been worse at home, where he's got an ugly 4.66 ERA in 4 starts. New York as a team is a mere 1-12 in their last 13 games against NL starters with a ERA of 2.70 or better. Take Arizona! |
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05-18-18 | Rays v. Angels -131 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -131 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
5* MLB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Angels - I love the value here with the Angels at home against the Rays on Friday. Los Angeles is going to be extremely motivated here after losing their last 3, including yesterday's ugly 7-1 loss to Tampa in the series opener. Hard to not like their chances at home in this one. LA will give the rock to Nick Tropeano, who is coming off back-to-back strong starts at home. He threw 6 1/3 scoreless at home against the Orioles on 5/1 and followed that up by allowing just 3 runs on 5 hits in 6 innings in his most recent outing against the Twins. Tampa Bay will send out Blake Snell, who is coming off a poor outing at Baltimore. Snell gave up 5 runs on 6 hits (3 HRs) in just 3 1/3 innings of work. He's now got an ugly 5.06 ERA in 5 road starts and a 4.41 ERA in his last 3 outings. Take Los Angeles! |
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05-17-18 | Phillies +125 v. Cardinals | 6-2 | Win | 125 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Phillies + I like the value here with Philadelphia as a decently priced road dog against the Cardinals on Thursday. These two teams are headed in different directions. The Phillies come in having won 6 of their last 7, while St Louis is just 3-5 in their last 8. Keep in mind this poor stretch started when Yadier Molina went to the DL and the Cardinals simply aren't the same team without him on the field. The other key here is I just don't trust St Louis starter Luke Weaver, who has really disappointment so far in 2018 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.364 WHIP. Weaver did pitch well in his last start, going 5 scoreless against the Padres, but that was in San Diego. That's now 5 straight starts where Weaver has failed to complete 6 innings. He's also got a mere 5.40 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in 3 home starts. Phillies are 9-3 in their last 12 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 10-1 in their last 11 vs the NL Central. Take Philadelphia! |
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05-17-18 | Orioles +155 v. Red Sox | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
3* MLB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Orioles + I like the value here with Baltimore as a huge dog on the road against division rival Boston. There's no arguing that the Red Sox should be favored at home against the Orioles, but this line is way too much given the starting pitching matchup. Boston will send out David Price, who is simply overvalued. Price often gets treated like an elite ace, despite the fact that he's not pitched well. He's a mere 3-4 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in 8 starts this season. He had one of his better starts last time out and gave up 2 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in just 5 2/3 innings. He's also 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.683 in 3 starts at Fenway this season. Baltimore will give the rock to Kevin Gausman, who is really throwing the ball well right now. Gausman has a 1.23 ERA and 1.045 over his last 3 starts and a 1.80 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in 3 road outings. It's also worth noting that in his last 2 starts against the Red Sox last year, Gausman didn't allow in 15 2/3 innings. Take Baltimore! |
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05-17-18 | Padres +148 v. Pirates | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Padres + I really like the value here with the Padres as a big road dog Thursday against the Pirates. Pittsburgh is red-hot having won 7 of 8, but 4 of those wins came against the awful White Sox. At the same time, San Diego has won 3 of 4 and will be motivated here to get their road trip started out with a win. It's been hit or miss for Padres starter Eric Lauer, but I've liked what I have seen in his limited action. More than anything, I don't feel there's a big enough gap here between Lauer and Pirates starter Chad Kuhl for the line to be what it is. Kuhl has a 4-2 record, but owns a not so great 4.17 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in his 8 starts. He's also got an ugly 5.57 ERA and 1.577 WHIP in 6 starts at night. Take San Diego! |
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05-16-18 | Astros v. Angels +125 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Angels + I like the value here with the Angels as a decently priced home dog against the Astros on Wednesday. I know Houston will have Justin Verlander on the mound, but they have lost each of his last 3 starts. Not that Verlander is responsible for the losses, but the offense just isn't producing with him on the mound. The Astros have scored a whopping 1 run in his last 3 starts. I think we could see this trend continue here. The Angels will send out a capable starter here in Garrett Richards. Richards is coming off back to back strong outings against the Mariners and Twins and has a 2.81 ERA in 3 starts against division opponents. He also has a strong history against Houston. He's got a 3.28 ERA in 11 career starts against them. Last year he faced them twice and allowed just 1 run on 5 hits with 1 walk and 10 strikeouts in 11 innings of work. Take Los Angeles! |
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05-16-18 | Cubs v. Braves +104 | 1-4 | Win | 104 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Braves + This is simply too much value to pass up on the Braves at basically a pick'em at home. Atlanta wasn't suppose to be a contender this season, yet they come into this game with the best record in the NL at 25-16. They are still flying under the radar and will continue to show big time value against some of the top public teams like the Cubs. Chicago won yesterday 3-2, but only managed 6 hits and have not been swinging it all that well over their last few games. This is a make or break start for Atlanta's Brandon McCarthy and I think he steps up to the challenge. At the same time, I look for the Braves offense to put up a number here on Cubs' starter Tyler Chatwood. In 7 starts Chatwood owns a solid 3.34 ERA, but his 1.540 WHIP (1.687 on the road) suggest he's been much worse than that ERA would lead on. Take Atlanta! |
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05-16-18 | Rays v. Royals +112 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Royals + I love the value here with the Royals as a home dog against the Rays on Wednesday. Tampa Bay has won 3 of 4 and are way over-priced here. Kansas City has lost 4 straight, but finally got the offense going with 5 runs on 11 hits Tuesday. I look for that offense to carry over and have a big day against Rays starter Jacob Faria, who is just 1-2 with a 8.55 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 4 road starts. The Royals will send out Jason Hammel, who is coming off a bad start at Cleveland, but has been a different pitcher at home. Hammel owns a 6.13 ERA in 8 starts overall, but a mere 3.86 ERA in 3 outings at home. Look for him to keep Tampa in check and for the Rays to leave here a winner. Take Tampa Bay! |
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05-16-18 | Cardinals -119 v. Twins | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
3* MLB Early Bird ANNIHILATOR on Cards - I like the value here with St Louis as a short road favorite against the Twins on Wednesday. The Cardinals come in having lost 3 straight, so the fact that they are favored speaks to the edge they have on the mound. St Louis will give the ball to Miles Mikolas, who has pitched better than anyone expected. Mikolas is 5-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in 7 starts. He's also trending up, as he's got a 1.31 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Twins are countering with Lance Lynn. The former Cardinal has been a mess so far in 2018. Lynn is 1-3 with a 7.34 ERA and 1.980 WHIP in 7 starts. It's been getting any better, as Lynn owns a 6.89 ERA and 1.914 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Take St Louis! |
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05-15-18 | Rays +123 v. Royals | 6-5 | Win | 123 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
3* MLB Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Rays + I like the value here with Tampa Bay as a decently priced road dog against the Royals. The Rays have the momentum after taking the series opener in a hard fought 2-1 win on Monday. Tampa has now won 2 of the 3 coming off that 5-game losing streak. As for Kansas City, they have dropped 3 straight and 5 of their last 6. The Royals' offense has managed just 5 runs over their last 3 games, which is a good sign for Rays starter Anthony Banda. The 24-year-old prospect will be making his Tampa debut and is coming off a great final start in the minors, where he allowed just 4 hits in 6 2/3 scoreless innings of work. Kansas City will counter with Ian Kennedy, who is just 1-4 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in 8 starts. Kennedy won't be taking the mound with a lot of confidence, as he gave up 9 runs on 8 hits (2 HRs) in just innings of his last start at Baltimore. Kennedy is also just 1-5 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.588 WHIP in 9 career starts against the Rays. Take Tampa Bay! |
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05-15-18 | White Sox +141 v. Pirates | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on White Sox + I like the value here with the White Sox. Chicago is widely considered to be the worst team in the big leagues, which means there is going to be value with them when they have an edge on the mound like they do today. The White Sox will send out Reynaldo Lopez against Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams. This is a rematch from last Wednesday when the two teams met in Chicago. The Pirates won the game 6-5, but Lopez was by far the better of the two starters. He allowed just 2 runs on 3 hits over 7 1/3 innings. He left with a 4-2 lead. The White Sox would extend the lead to 5-2, before giving up 4 runs in the top of the 9th. Williams only lasted 5 innings, as he allowed 4 runs on 7 hits (2 HRs) and 2 walks. That wasn't a fluke start by Lopez, who is flying under the radar because of how bad the White Sox are playing. Lopez comes in with a 2.44 ERA and 1.128 WHIP over 7 starts. Clearly much better numbers than his 0-2 record would lead on. I think he gets the elusive first win of 2018 tonight. Take Chicago! |
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05-15-18 | Rockies -102 v. Padres | 0-4 | Loss | -102 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Rockies - I like the value here with the Rockies at basically a pick'em on the road against the Padres. Colorado took the series opener 6-4 on Monday and I look for them to carry over that momentum to the finale of this short 2-game series. The Rockies will send out German Marquez, who has shined away from home this season. Marquez is 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in 4 road starts. Colorado is 3-1 in those outings and I like their chances of improving to 4-1. San Diego will send out Jordan Lyles, who will be making just his second start of 2018. The first one went well against the Cardinals, but I wouldn't read to much into that outing. Lyles has a career 5.36 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He's also made two starts at the end of last season against the Rockies and allowed 11 runs on 13 hits and 5 walks in just 10 innings of work. Take Colorado! |
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05-14-18 | Astros v. Angels +128 | 1-2 | Win | 128 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Angels + I like the value here with the Angles as a home dog against division rival Houston on Monday. Los Angeles will come into the series opener against the defending champs riding a wave of momentum after Sunday's walk-off 2-1 win over the Twins. I also like the pitching matchup for the Angels in this one. LA is sending out Andrew Heaney, who is red-hot with a 2.12 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Houston will counter with Lance McCullers, who is 5-1 with a respectable 3.76 ERA in 8 starts, but does have an ugly 4.67 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 5 road outings this season. It's also worth adding that the Astros have lost each of the last 4 games where McCullers started a series opener. Take Los Angeles! |
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05-14-18 | Braves v. Cubs UNDER 8 | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
3* MLB Early Bird Total DESTROYER on Braves/Cubs UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's early MLB action that has the Cubs hosting the Braves. The most important thing when betting the total in games played at Wrigley Field is the direction the wind is blowing. It's expected to be blowing in from right field, so that's definitely a plus for the pitchers. The other big key here is the starting pitching matchup, which features the Cubs Jose Quintana against the Braves Julio Teheran. Both have been on top of their game of late. Quintana has allowed just 1 earned run in his last 3 starts, giving him an ERA of just 0.53 during this stretch. Teheran isn't too far behind with a 1.69 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in his last 3 starts. UNDER is 18-7-1 in Teheran's last 26 starts overall and 7-1-1 in his last 9 outings following a Quality Start in his last appearance. UNDER is also 15-5-1 in the Cubs last 21 games vs a team with a winning percentage of 60% or better and 12-4-1 in their last 17 home games vs a right-handed starter. Take the UNDER! |
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05-13-18 | Giants v. Pirates -135 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
5* MLB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Pirates - I love the value here with Pittsburgh at home at this price. The Pirates have started playing great baseball again and have won 5 straight after Saturday's thrilling 6-5 win, where they gave up the lead in the top of 8th, only to take it back in the bottom half of the inning. As for the Giants, they are headed in the opposite direction. San Francisco has lost 6 straight and it hasn't exactly been pretty. The Giants are averaging 2.7 runs/game over their last 7 and are giving up an average of 7.4 runs/game during this stretch. The other big key here is the starting pitching matchup, which I feel heavily favors the home team. Pittsburgh will send out Ivan Nova, who is coming off a couple of poor road outings, but has a 3.38 ERA and sensational 0.900 WHIP at home this season. In his last home start he threw 8 scoreless innings. Giants will send out Derek Holland, who is a mere 1-4 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.257 WHIP in 7 starts. San Francisco is also 0-4 in his 4 road starts this season. Take Pittsburgh! |
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05-13-18 | Mariners -183 v. Tigers | 4-5 | Loss | -183 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
3* MLB Vegas Money Line DESTROYER on Mariners - I have no problem laying heavy juice on the money line with Seattle in Sunday's matchup with the Tigers. The Mariners simply have a massive edge on the mound in this one, as they send out James Paxton, who is coming off a no-hitter, against 31-year-old Blaine Hardy, who is making his first ever career start. Paxton has been throwing at an elite level of late. Last time out he threw a no-hitter on the road against the Blue Jays. The start before that he struck out 16 batters in 7 shutout innings against the A's. Even if he's not on top of his game, he should be able to keep this mediocre Tigers' offense in check. I also think there's a good chance the Mariners provide Paxton with a bunch of run support. Hardy isn't likely too pitch deep in this game and he's well past being a promising prospect at 31. Keep in mind these two teams played a double-header yesterday and Detroit's bullpen had to work 8 2/3 innings. Take Seattle! |
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05-12-18 | Twins +130 v. Angels | Top | 5-3 | Win | 130 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Twins + I'm recommending a play here on Minnesota, as we are simply getting too good of a price to pass up on with the red-hot Twins. Minnesota defeated the Angels 5-4 on Friday and are now 6-1 in their last 7. The surge offensively has been a big reason for their success, as they are scoring 5.9 runs/game during this run. It's not all offense, as they are only giving up 3.3 runs/game. With the way the Twins are swinging the bats, it's hard to not like their chances here with one of their top starters, Kyle Gibson, on the mound. Gibson has only been a part of 2 decisions, but owns a strong 3.49 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in 7 starts. He's also pitched his best on the road, where he has a 2.52 ERA and 0.840 WHIP in 4 outings. Take Minnesota! |
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05-12-18 | A's v. Yankees -179 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Yankees - I'm recommending laying the big juice here and backing the Yankees to win at home over Oakland on Saturday. The A's laid it on New York in the series opener last night in a convincing 10-5 win. I expect a much more focused Yankees team to take the field this afternoon. Keep in mind yesterday's matchup was a prime letdown spot for New York, coming off that big 3-game series against hated rival Boston. The Yankees manages 5 runs yesterday despite only registering 7 hits. That's how potent this offense can be and they come in averaging 6.4 runs/game. I think the offense is poised for a big day. At the same time, I think it's worth riding New York's starter Domingo German. In his MLB debut the past Sunday he didn't allow a hit, let alone a run in 6 innings, striking out 9. Take New York! |
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05-11-18 | Braves v. Marlins +134 | 3-6 | Win | 134 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Marlins + I like the value here with Miami as a decently priced home dog against division rival Atlanta. So little is expected of the Marlins that they are routinely undervalued and I just feel the price here at home is too good to pass up. The first two starts for Miami's Dan Straily haven't been great, but he did show some improvement in his second outing and I think he's going to continue to trend in the right direction. On the flip side of this the Braves will give the rock to Brandon McCarthy, who has to be second-guessing himself after his most recent outing. In his last start McCarthy gave up 8 runs on 12 hits in just 3 1/3 innings tat home against the Giants. This is a good time for the Marlins offense to produce and they should be able to push across enough runs here to get the win. Take Miami! |
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05-11-18 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays +177 | 3-5 | Win | 177 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Blue Jays + I like the value here with the Blue Jays as a massive home dog against division rival Boston. I know the Red Sox will have their ace Chris Sale on the mound, but they were fortunate to win with him on the mound a few starts back at Toronto. Not only do I think the Blue Jays can get to Sale here, but I think this is a great spot to fade Boston coming off their emotional 3-game series against their biggest rivals in the Yankees. Keep in mind this will be the Red Sox's 8th straight game on the road, which I think increases the likelihood of them coming out flat here. Boston is just 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a new series and are 1-4 in Sale's last 5 starts vs a team with a winning record. Take Toronto! |
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05-11-18 | Mets +144 v. Phillies | Top | 3-1 | Win | 144 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Mets + I like the value here with the Mets as a big road dog in Friday's NL East action against the Phillies. Most won't hesitate here to back Philadelphia given the Phillies are 15-5 at home and will have veteran Jake Arrieta on the mound. I just don't think there's that big of an edge here on the mound. New York will send out Steven Matz, who is coming off a great start against the Rockies, where he allowed just 1 run on 3 hits in 6 innings. Matz is 1-3 with a 4.23 ERA, but has pitched much better than his ERA and that's evident by his 1.157 WHIP. I think the Mets have an excellent shot at winning this game and the price here is too good to pass up. Take New York! |
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05-10-18 | Cardinals v. Padres +142 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
3* MLB Late Night ANNIHILATOR on Padres + I like the value here with San Diego as a decently priced home dog against the Cardinals. St Louis just got swept in their short 2-game series at home against the Twins and it wasn't pretty. Minnesota outscored the Cardinals 13-1 and I just have big concerns with St Louis going forward without their rock behind the plate in Yadier Molina. St Louis will send out Miles Mikolas, who has pitched very well for the Cardinals this season. However, I think the emotions for Mikolas will be running high in this game, as he was traded by the Padres back in 2013. Not to mention the extra pressure on him to pitch well with how poorly St Louis is swinging the bat. This is simply too good of a price to pass up on the home team. Take San Diego! |
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05-10-18 | Red Sox +136 v. Yankees | 5-4 | Win | 136 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Red Sox + I like the value here with Boston as a decently priced road dog in Thursday's series finale against rival New York. The Red Sox had their chances in a 3-2 loss in the series opener on Tuesday. They then blew a 6-5 lead in the 8th of yesterday's 9-6 defeat. I look for Boston to come out here and do whatever it takes to avoid getting swept. On paper the pitching matchup looks to favor the Yankees, who send out veteran C.C. Sabathia and his 1.39 ERA in 6 starts against Eduardo Rodriguez and his ugly 5.29 ERA. The thing is Rodriguez has pitched much better than his ERA would suggest, as he's got a 1.27 WHIP. Boston has also found a way to win all 6 of his starts regardless of how he performs. I look for the offense to stay hot here and propel the Red Sox to the win. Take Boston! |
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05-09-18 | Braves v. Rays -101 | 5-2 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rays - I like the value here with the Rays at basically a pick'em at home against the Braves. Tampa Bay has really been playing well over the last 3 weeks or so. The Rays started out 4-13 in their first 17 games, but have since gone 11-5 with all 5 those losses coming by 1 run or less. I like their chances here against Atlanta, who was fortunate to win the series opener 1-0, as they recorded just 4 hits. I look for the Rays offense to come to life here against Julio Teheran, who has been hit or miss this season. Teheran threw 7 shutout innings in his last start, but couldn't make it out of the 3rd inning in his previous start and owns a modest 3.65 ERA and 1.243 WHIP in 7 starts overall. I'll also take my chances on Rays starter Ryan Yarbrough keeping Atlanta's slumping offense in check. The Braves have scored a total of 6 runs over their last 3 games are are hitting just .218 as at team in their last 7. Take Tampa Bay! |
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05-09-18 | Tigers v. Rangers -130 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
5* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Rangers - I like the value here with the Rangers at home against the Tigers on Wednesday. While Texas ended up on the losing end of yesterday's game against Detroit, the Rangers got a big boost offensively from veteran Adrian Beltre and I look for his return to the lineup to really get this team going. Most are going to look at this pitching matchup in favor of the Tigers, as Detroit sends out Francisco Liriano against the 44-year-old Bartlolo Colon. Both have been sharp early on, but I think Liriano is due for some major regression. He's yet to allow more than 3 runs in a single start. A streak I see coming to an end. In Liriano's last two starts at Texas, he's given up 10 runs on 13 hits (4 HRs) and 6 walks in just 10 2/3 innings of work. Take Texas! |
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05-09-18 | Mets v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -114 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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05-08-18 | Nationals -118 v. Padres | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
3* MLB Money Line HEAVY HITTER on Nationals - I like the value here with Washington as a short road favorite against the Padres on Tuesday. Hard to pass up on the Nationals at this price with how well they are playing. Washington has won their last 2 and are 8-1 in their last 9 games. San Diego has won a mere 13-games all season and are just 6-13 at home. On top of all that, the Nationals have what looks like a clear edge on the mound with Jeremy Hellickson facing off against Clayton Richard. Hellickson will be making his 5th start and has gotten better with each outing. In his last 3 starts he's allowed just 5 runs on 11 hits and 3 walks in 16 1/3 innings. Note that those 3 starts came against quality opponents in the Pirates, Diamondbacks and Dodgers. Richard on the other hand is 1-4 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.726 WHIP in 7 starts and has been even worse of late with a 6.89 ERA and 1.851 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Take Washington! |
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05-08-18 | Mets v. Reds -138 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
5* National League GAME OF THE MONTH on Reds - I love the value here with the Reds at home against the Mets on Tuesday. New York is trending in the wrong direction. Even with yesterday's 7-6 win over Cincinnati, the Mets are just 1-6 in their last 7 games. This is every bit a play on the Reds as it is a fade of New York starter Jason Vargas. In his first two starts after missing the first month, Vargas has been downright awful. He's given up 15 runs on 20 hits and 5 walks (5 HRs) in 8 1/3 innings. I just don't see him figuring it out on the road in one of the more hitter-friendly parks in the majors. I also think we are about to Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo start to pitch up to his potential. He showed some great signs of turning things around in his last outing, as he allowed just 2 runs over 6 innings against a good Brewers lineup. If Castillo pitches anywhere close to that, this should turn into a blowout rather quickly. Take Cincinnati! |
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05-07-18 | Twins +131 v. Cardinals | 6-0 | Win | 131 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Twins + I really like the value here with Minnesota as a big road dog against the Cardinals on Monday. This is a big time letdown spot for St Louis, who is coming off back-to-back extra inning games against their biggest rivals in the Cubs, with last night's contest going 14-innings. St Louis won both of those games, which only increases the likelihood they struggle to show up with the right mindset for this one. I also think we are going to see the Cardinals start to fall off without their rock behind the plate in Yadier Molina. He's especially going to be missed here with a bullpen that's had to put in a lot of work the last couple of days and starter Jon Gant making his big-league debut. With the Twins offense having come to life and starter Fernando Rombero looking sharp in his first outing, I think they get the win here. Take Minnesota! |
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05-06-18 | Marlins v. Reds -111 | 8-5 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
3* MLB No Doubt Money Line BLOWOUT on Reds - I like the value here with the Reds as a short home favorite in Sunday's rubber match against the Marlins. Both starting pitchers have struggled, so this one is likely to which team can put the most runs on the board. While Miami won 6-0 on Saturday, there's little doubt which of these two teams is more potent on offense. I look for the Reds to put up a big number here and help Brandon Finnegan secure his first win of the season. Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and the Marlins are 1-6 in Straily's last 7 rad starts and 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs a left-handed starter. Take Cincinnati! |
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05-06-18 | Astros v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Astros/Diamondbacks UNDER I love the value here with Sunday's interleague showdown between the Astros/Diamondbacks going UNDER the mark set by the books. Both of these offenses have been struggling of late and I just don't see either team getting going here with this pitching matchup. Houston is going to send out veteran Justin Verlander, who is putting up Cy Young type numbers. Verlander is 4-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.671 WHIP in 7 starts. He's yet to give up an earned run on the road this year, which covers 19 innings over 3 starts. Arizona will send out Matt Kock, who has posted a 2.65 ERA and 1.118 WHIP over his first 3 starts. Take the UNDER! |
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05-05-18 | Orioles v. A's -127 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Oakland - I like the value here with the A's as a small home favorite against the Orioles on Saturday. Oakland won the series opener 6-4 last night and I look for them to build off that victory here. The A's will send out Trevor Cahill, who has been a pleasant surprise so far. Cahill has a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 3 starts and was sensational in his only outing so far at home, giving up just 5 hits with 8 strikeouts over 7 shutout innings. Baltimore just hasn't been playing well at all. The Orioles have lost 4 straight and are now 8-24 on the season. Baltimore will send out Kevin Gausman, who has a 4.15 ERA and 1.327 WHIP in 6 starts and has give up 7 runs on 15 hits and 4 walks in 10 innings over 2 career starts at Oakland. A's are 6-1 in their last 7 at home and 8-2 in their last 10 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take Oakland! |
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05-05-18 | Phillies +131 v. Nationals | Top | 3-1 | Win | 131 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
5* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Phillies + I like the value here with the Phillies as a decently priced dog in Saturday's contest at Washington. The Nationals are simply getting too much respect here and the price is too good to pass up on Philadelphia. Washington comes in red-hot, having won 6 straight, including a 7-3 win last night in the series opener. This is talented Phillies team that is going to come out extremely motivated to get a win here and I expect them to do just that. Washington will send out Tanner Roark and have gone just 6-11 when he takes the mound as a favorite of -125 to -175. The Nationals are also just 1-7 in Roark's last 8 starts on 4 days of rest, 1-4 in his last 5 vs a division opponent and 1-4 in his last 5 at home vs a team with a winning record. Take Philadelphia! |
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05-04-18 | Angels v. Mariners +115 | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
3* MLB Late Night BAILOUT on Mariners + I like the value here with the Mariners as a decently priced division home dog against the Angels. There's been plenty of hype early on with the Angels because of Ohtani. Now the media is all over this team with Pujols needing just 1-hit to reach 3,000 for his career. The Angels are coming off a sweep of the Orioles, but Baltimore isn't exactly playing well. Seattle has almost an identical record as the Angels and are playing some of their best baseball right now. The Mariners are 7-2 over their last 9 games and are clicking both at the plate and on the mound. Seattle is scoring 6.3 runs/game over their last 7, while giving up only 3.6 runs/game during this stretch. Take Seattle! |
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05-04-18 | Tigers v. Royals -120 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
5* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Royals - I love the value here with Kansas City as a short home favorite against the Tigers on Friday. The Royals have won 4 of their last 6, while Detroit is just 3-6 in their last 9. Kansas City's offense is rolling right now. The Royals have scored at least 4 runs in 6 straight games and have combined for 38 hits over their last 3 games. The Tigers had a decent offensive night last night, but have scored 3 or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. With no advantage in the starting pitching department, this is an easy play for me at this price on the home team. Take Kansas City! |
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05-04-18 | Marlins v. Reds -119 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
3* MLB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Reds - I like the value here with the Reds as a short home favorite against the Marlins on Friday. Cincinnati is going to be fired up to get this series started off on the right foot. The Reds were just swept in a 3-game series at home against the Brewers. I know Miami has been playing better, but most of that success has come at home. The Marlins have just 4 wins away from home this season. The bright side for Cincinnati is the offense has been producing of late. The Reds are averaging 5.7 runs/game and hitting .275 as a team over their last 7 games I look for that offense to be the difference here, as starter Sal Romano is trending in the right direction with a 2.87 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Cincinnati! |
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05-03-18 | Red Sox -140 v. Rangers | 5-11 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Red Sox - I like the value here with Boston on the road in Thursday's series opener against the Rangers. The Red Sox have cooled off a bit from their torrid start, but are still playing really good baseball and have racked up 10+ hits in each of their last 3 games and have scored 21 runs during this stretch. Given how Boston is swinging the bats right now, I got no problem laying a little juice on the road against a bad team like the Rangers, especially with this being a hitters' park. Red Sox starter David Price has a strong 2.29 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in 3 road starts this season, while Texas' Mike Minor comes in slumping with a 5.51 ERA and 1.347 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Don't be surprised if the Red Sox blow this thing wide-open early. Take Boston! |
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05-02-18 | Pirates +185 v. Nationals | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pirates + I like the value here with Pittsburgh as a massive road dog against the Nationals. This line suggests that Pittsburgh doesn't have much of a chance of winning this game, but I don't see it that way at all. The Pirates will send out Ivan Nova, who has really thrown the ball well so far in 2018. Nova has a 3.32 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in 6 starts overall and is red-hot right now with a 1.74 ERA and 0.822 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Washington will counter with Stephen Strasburg, who is a big name and someone the public loves to back. The thing is, Stasburg hasn't been up to his standards so far in 2018. He's got a 3.63 ERA in his 6 starts and a 5.12 ERA over his last 3. He's really struggled with keeping the ball in the park, as he's allowed 7 home runs. Strasburg might end up with better numbers at season end, but Nova is throwing it better right now. Take Pittsburgh! |
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05-01-18 | Padres +118 v. Giants | 3-2 | Win | 118 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Padres + I like the value here with San Diego as a decently priced road dog against the Giants on Tuesday. The Padres have what I feel is a clear-cut edge on the mound, as they will send out Tyson Ross against Andrew Suarez. Ross has a respectable 3.64 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 5 starts overall, but is trending much better than that. Ross has a 2.55 ERA and 1.188 WHIP over his last 3 starts, which includes two road starts against the Rockies and Diamondbacks. It also includes a start against these Giants, where the only run he allowed in 6 innings of work was unearned. As for Suarez, he's making just his second big league start. The first didn't go so well, as Suarez allowed 4 runs in 5 1/3 innings, giving up 2 homers. Look for Suarez to continue to struggle and he's likely not to pitch deep even if he does throw well. Take San Diego! |
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05-01-18 | Blue Jays v. Twins -135 | 7-4 | Loss | -135 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Twins - I like the value here with Minnesota as a short home favorite against the Blue Jays on Tuesday. The Twins have been in a funk of late, but I think the pitching matchup here is going to allow them to get back on track with a win. Minnesota will send out Kyle Gibson against the Blue Jays' Marco Estrada. Gibson has a solid 3.33 ERA and 1.260 WHIP in 5 starts this season and is coming off his best outing. Gibson allowed just 1 hit with 10 strikeouts in 6 shutout innings at New York (Yankees). As for Estrada, he's got an ugly 6.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 5 starts and is trending in the wrong direction with a 9.00 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Twins are 11-2 in Gibson's last 13 starts overall and are 7-0 in his last 7 off a Quality Start in his last appearance and 6-0 in his last 6 starts at home. Take Minnesota! |
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04-30-18 | Dodgers +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
5* NL West Run Line GAME OF THE MONTH on Dodgers +1.5 I love the value here with the Dodgers on the +1.5 run line in Monday's series opener at Arizona. LA is going to be extremely motivated here to get this series started off strong after losing 3 of 4 over their weekend series at San Francisco. The Dodgers are just 1-5 in their last 6, but it's not like they haven't been competitive, as 4 of the 5 losses have come by 2 runs or less. The only exception being a 5-run loss in the second contest of their double-header on Saturday. Arizona has been playing well and are certainly getting a lot of love given the starting pitching matchup, as they send out Zack Greinke against Ross Stripling. However, Greinke is just 2-2 with a 4.80 ERA in 5 starts and is coming off a poor outing agains the Phillies, where he allowed 5 runs on 9 hits in 6 innings. Greinke has also been very mediocre against the Dodgers over his career, as he's just 5-5 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 13 starts. That includes an earlier outing this year where he gave up 4 runs in 6 1/3 innings. I look for LA to win this one outright and worse case keep it within a run. Take Los Angeles! |
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04-29-18 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 14-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Padres UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's MLB action that has the Padres hosting the Mets. A lot of people will focus on the pitching matchup and the poor numbers for today's starters, but this is a huge number for a game at Petco Park. Keep in mind that while the Padres put up 12 runs yesterday, they has scored 2 or fewer in 5 of their previous 6 games and New York's Zack Wheeler is more than capable of shutting this offense down. As for the Mets' offense, they have scored 3 or fewer in 3 of their last 4 and have recorded single-digit hits in 9 straight as they are hitting a mere .203 over their last 7 games. Take the UNDER! |
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04-28-18 | Tigers v. Orioles -118 | 9-5 | Loss | -118 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
3* MLB Oddsmaker ERROR on Orioles - I like the value here with Baltimore as a short home favorite against the Tigers on Saturday. The Orioles snapped a 5-game skid with a 6-0 win over Detroit on Friday and it's only a matter of time before this team starts playing up to their potential. They are simply too talented to be sitting at 7-19. The Tigers on the other hand are in a major rebuild and should be a great team to fade on the road. Even more so right now, with the offense in a major funk. Detroit has been shutout in back-to-back games and are hitting just .218 as a team on the road this season. I look for the offense to continue to struggle here against Orioles starter Andrew Cashner, who has posted a solid 3.32 ERA in his last 3 starts. Take Baltimore! |
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04-28-18 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Braves/Phillies UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's AL East action that has the Phillies hosting the Braves. If you haven't been following the MLB closely these two starters might not scream pitchers duel when you see them, but that's exactly what I'm expecting. Atlanta will send out Mike Foltynewicz, who has a strong 2.77ERA in 5 starts and has already faced these Phillies twice. In those 2 starts, Foltynewicz has allowed just 3 earned runs on 9 hits with 15 strikeouts in 11 innings of work. Philadelphia will counter with Nick Pivetta, who has a 2.57 ERA in 5 starts overall, 1.89 ERA in 3 home outings and a 2.77 ERA in 5 career starts against the Braves. Take the UNDER! |
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04-27-18 | Mets v. Padres +152 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
3* MLB Late Night BAILOUT on Padres + I like the value here with the Padres as a huge home dog against the Mets on Friday. New York is simply getting way too much respect here because of the fact that they are sending out one of their top starters in Jacob deGrom. The bigger key here is this is going to be a very difficult series for the Mets, who are a long way from home and have already played 3-games sets at Atlanta and St Louis leading up to this trip out west. Keep in mind that New York is just 3-6 over their last 9, as they have really cooled off from that impressive 12-2 start to the season. It won't be easy putting up a big number here on deGrom, but I think the Padres can do just enough here to have a great shot at winning this game. Take San Diego! |
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04-27-18 | White Sox v. Royals -116 | 7-4 | Loss | -116 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Royals - I like the value here with the Royals as a short home favorite against the White Sox on Friday. Kansas City has started out a miserable 1-10 at home and they simply can't continue to play this poorly on their home field. I look for the Royals to get back on track at Kauffman Stadium against an equally poor team in the White Sox. KC will have their ace Danny Duffy on the mound for this one. Duffy is coming off a poor outing at Detroit, but had pitched well in each of his previous 3 outings and it's worth noting that 4 of his 5 starts so far have come in day games. The one night start that Duffy had was at Toronto and he allowed just 2 hits with 8 strikeouts in 6 shutout innings. Look for Duffy to dominate the White Sox and the Royals secure a victory. Take Kansas City! |
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04-27-18 | Rangers v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 6-4 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Ranges/Blue Jays UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's AL showdown that has the Blue Jays hosting the Rangers. I know it's been a struggle so far for Toronto starter Marcus Stroman, but he got a late start to spring training and is still working out the kinks. This now his fifth start and I'm expecting to start seeing some real improvement here against a struggling Texas lineup that is averaging just 3.6 runs/game and hitting .231 as a team. The Rangers should be able to keep it close behind another strong outing from starter Mike Minor, who has a solid 3.86 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in his 4 starts to open the season. Minor is also a perfect 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.800 WHIP in 3 career starts against the Blue Jays, which includes a start against them earlier this season, where he allowed just 1 run on 2 hits in 6 innings. UNDER is 8-2-1 in Rangers last 11 road games vs a right-handed starter and 4-1 in Stroman's last 5 home starts vs a team with a losing record. Take the uNDER! |
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04-26-18 | Mariners +1.5 v. Indians | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Mariners +1.5 I like the value here with backing Seattle on the +1.5 run line against the Indians on Thursday. I'm expecting the Mariners to win this game, but I'm willing to pay some extra juice in case they end up losing by 1 run. Seattle is sending out talented lefty James Paxton, who has the talent to develop into one of the best starters the AL has to offer. It's been a bit of an up and down start to 2018 for Paxton, but he's pitched much better of late, allowing 2 or fewer runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. While the Indians have a winning record at 13-9, it's not because of their offense. Cleveland is hitting a mere .218 as a team on the season and while it's been slightly better of late, they are hitting just .236 over their last 7. The even bigger key here is there struggles against south paws. The Indians are hitting a mere .163 with a .254 OBP as a team vs left-handed starters this season. Mike Clevinger will take the mound for the Indians and while he's been rock solid in his 4 starts, he's not been nearly as sharp at home, where he's got a 3.97 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 11 1/3 innings of work. Look for the Mariners to put some runs up here and secure the win. Take Seattle +1.5 (-200)! |
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04-25-18 | Twins v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Twins/Yankees UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's MLB action that has the Yankees hosting the Twins. The books have set a big number here in large part to New York's recent surge at the plate, but with the wind blowing end, I like our chances of staying below the mark in this one. Minnesota will send out Lance Lynn, who has struggled with his command in his first 3 starts. Lynn has walked 15 batters in 14 innings of work. That kind of inability to find the strikeout zone won't continue and Lynn should have a fresh arm, as he's thrown just 3 1/3 innings since April 12th. Yankees will send out Sonny Gray, who is another starter that hasn't pitched up to his potential early on in 2018. I like Gray's chances of breaking out of his slump against a struggling Twins offense that has scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 7 games. Take the UNDER! |
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04-23-18 | A's -123 v. Rangers | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Oakland - I like the value here with the A's as a short road favorite against the Rangers on Monday. Oakland is one of the hottest teams in the league, as they have won 6 of their last 7, including 2 of 3 against the red-hot Red Sox over the weekend to improve to 11-11 on the season. Texas on the other hand is a mere 4-9 in their last 13 and I look for those struggles to continue. I see a clear edge on the mound here for Oakland with Trevor Cahill facing off against the Rangers' Matt Moore. Cahill was sensational in first start back with the A's, allowing just 5 hits with 8 strikeouts over 7 shutout innings at Chicago last Tuesday. Moore was strong in his last outing at Tampa, but still comes in with a 1-3 record and 5.59 ERA and 1.707 WHIP in 4 starts. He's been especially poor at home, where he's 0-3 with a 8.76 ERA and 2.109 WHIP in 3 starts. Take Oakland! |
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04-22-18 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -165 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Diamondbacks - The Diamondbacks should have no problem securing a win at home in Sunday's series finale against the Padres. Arizona will send out Pat Corbin, who has been a pleasant surprise early on in 2018. Corbin is 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.695 WHIP in 4 starts and is fresh off a complete game shutout in his last outing. Corbin has made 3 starts at home this season and in those 3 outings have allowed a mere 2 runs on 9 hits with 28 strikeouts over 22 innings of work. Adding to this is a great system in play backing a fade of the Padres. Road underdogs who are a poor hitting team (team avg. of .255 or worse) are just 16-61 (21%) against the money line when facing an NL team with a starter with a ERA of 2.70 or better and a bullpen that has converted at least 75% of their save opportunities. Take Arizona! |
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04-22-18 | Cubs -114 v. Rockies | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
3* MLB Money Line DESTROYER on Cubs - I like the value here with the Cubs at this small price on the road in Sunday's series finale against the Rockies. Chicago's offense managed just 2 runs on Saturday after putting up 16 in the series opener on Friday. I look for the Cubs offense to bounce back in a big way here against Rockies' start German Marquez. In 4 starts this season, Marquez has a poor 4.34 ERA and 1.393 WHIP and has really struggled at home, posting a 8.21 ERA and 1.825 WHIP in his 2 outings at Coors Field. Chicago will counter with Jose Quintana, who has had an up and down start to the season. The key here is that Quintana should have his best stuff, as he's had a full 7 days off since his last start. Quintana has also pitched twice at Coors and faired well, posting a solid 3.65 ERA, allowing just 5 runs on 12 1/3 innings of work. Cubs are 14-2 in their last 16 road games with a total of 10 to 10.5 and have won these contests by an average score of 7.4 to 3.9 (+3.5 runs/game). Take Chicago! |
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04-21-18 | Cubs -124 v. Rockies | 2-5 | Loss | -124 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
4* MLB Prime Time HEAVY HITTER on Cubs - I like the value here with the Cubs as a small road favorite against the Rockies on Saturday. Chicago's offense exploded for 16 runs in an 11-run win in the series opener Friday and I look for the offense to lay it on Colorado again. The Cubs will send out You Darvish who is coming off a less than impressive start at Atlanta. Darvish also struggled in his first outing, but fired back with an outstanding performance in his next start, allowing just 1 run on 2 hits in 9 innings at Milwaukee. I look for another strong bounce back here against the Rockies. The bigger key is the Cubs offense, which will be facing Tyler Anderson, who has a 4.74 ERA and 1.579 WHIP in his 4 starts to open the season. Any time the Chicago gets in a a game that's expected to be high-scoring away from home, more times than not they prevail. Cubs are 13-2 over the last 2 seasons on the road with a total of 10 to 10.5 and have won these contests by an average score of 6.9 to 3.8. Take Chicago! |
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04-21-18 | Mets -137 v. Braves | 3-4 | Loss | -137 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
3* MLB Money Line DESTROYER on Mets - I like the value here with the Mets as a short road favorite against division rival Atlanta on Saturday. New York scored 2 runs in the top of the 12th to take down the Braves 5-3 on Friday. That should give them a lot of momentum going into the 3rd game of the series and making matters even better is they will have one of their best starters on the mound in Jacob deGrom. The Mets have won 3 of his 4 starts this season, as he's 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.080 WHIP. He was really on top of his game in his last start, as he struck out 12 batters in 7 1/3 innings against a good Nationals lineup. I also like his chances of getting some run support, as the Braves will send out Julio Teheran, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in 4 starts. It's also worth noting that 3 of Teheran's 4 starts have came at home and he's got an even worse 6.43 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in those outings. Take New York! |
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04-20-18 | Giants +129 v. Angels | 8-1 | Win | 129 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
3* MLB Late Night DIAMOND DESTROYER on Giants + I like the value here with the Giants as a decently priced road dog against the Angels on Friday. The momentum the Angels had going after their 13-3 start was put to rest by an even hotter Red Sox team, who came into LA and left with a 3-game sweep. I think we could see the Angels struggle to snap out of their funk tonight. San Francisco will be sending out Jeff Samardzija, who will be making his first start of 2018. Samardzija definitely has the stuff to tame this LA offense and he couldn't be getting them at a better time, as the Angels have scored a whopping 3 runs in their last 3 games. As for the Giants offense, I like their chances of getting to LA starter Andrew Heaney, who was hit hard in his first start, allowing 4 runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings. Take San Francisco! |
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04-20-18 | Royals v. Tigers UNDER 9 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Royals UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Game 2 of Friday's double-header between the Tigers and Royals. The fact that these two teams combined for 20 runs in the opener last night is definitely playing into this number. I just don't see the production being there on Friday, especially in the night cap. Kansas City will send out one of their top performers, Jake Junis, on either side of the ball in 2018. Junis has posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.803 WHIP in 3 starts, accounting for two of the Royals 3 wins this season. One of those starts came against these Tigers, which he absolutely dominated Detroit, allowing just 3 hits over 7 shutout innings. The Tigers are going to counter with Daniel Norris, who doesn't exactly have the best numbers. However, this is more about the offense Norris will be facing than anything. The Royals offense is atrocious. Their 51 runs scored on the season is the worst of any team in the league. Not to mention they are averaging a mere 2.2 runs/game on the road this season. Take the UNDER! |
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04-20-18 | Twins v. Rays -115 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
5* MLB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Rays - I love the value here with the Rays as a small home favorite against the Twins on Friday. Minnesota has won 4 of their last 5, but have also played just twice in the last 7 days. Both of those coming in a short 2-game set against the Indians in Puerto Rico, where they scored just 3 runs combined in those two contests. It's really hard on hitters to not be out there every day and I think the lack of games will have the Twins offense struggling to score again tonight. Making matters worse for Minnesota is they will go up against Chris Archer, who has absolutely owned them in his career. Archer has made 7 starts against the Twins and has gone 6-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.932 WHIP. The even bigger key here is we should get some production offensively from Tampa, as they will be going up against the struggling Lance Lynn, who has really struggled with his command in his two starts this season. Lynn has only pitched 9 innings and has walked 10 batters. With the Rays trending in the right direction offensively right now, they should be able to secure the win in this one. Take Tampa! |
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04-19-18 | Orioles v. Tigers OVER 9 | 8-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Orioles/Tigers OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Thursday early MLB action that has the Tigers hosting the Orioles. It's been a struggle to start the season for both teams, as neither offense has produced at the level expected. With that said, both teams are coming off a strong showing at the plate, as the two combined for 11 runs in yesterday's meeting. I think we could see even more runs scored in today's contest. For starters, we have two starters taking the mound that have struggled. Baltimore's Alex Cobb has made just one start, but in that outing he allowed 8 runs on 10 hits with 0 strikeouts in 3 2/3 innings of work. Detroit will counter with Matt Boyd, who has a 8.18 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in his 3 starts so far in 2018. Making matters even worse for today's starters is the wind will be blowing straight out to center at 15 mph. Take the OVER! |
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04-18-18 | Rangers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 2-4 | Win | 105 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rangers/Rays UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's MLB action that has the Rays hosting the Rangers. Both of these teams are struggling to push across runs on a consistent basis. Texas comes in averaging just 3.5 runs/game and Tampa is even worse at 3.4 runs/game. Rangers will send out Cole Hamels who despite a 4.50 ERA overall has been really good on the road. Hamels owns a 2.45 ERA in his 2 road starts and last time out limited the Astros to just 2 runs in 6 innings at Houston. Rays counter with Jacob Faria who has a 8.18 ERA overall, but that's all because of one bad road start. Faria is has a 1.93 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in 2 home starts. It's also worth nothing that the home plate umpire for this game will be Bruce Dreckman. The UNDER has cashed in 13 of his last 16 appearances behind the plate. UNDER is also 25-12-5 in Texas' last 42 after scoring 5 or more and 20-7-1 in Tampa's last 28 during Game 3 of a series. Take the UNDER! |
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04-18-18 | Orioles -115 v. Tigers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
5* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Orioles - I love the value here with Baltimore as a short road favorite against the Tigers on Wednesday. It's only a matter of time before the Orioles get on track, but they have won each of the last two starts by Kevin Gausman, who has really pitched well after a poor showing in his first outing of the season against the Twins. Gausman faced Detroit once last season and held them to just 1 run on 3 hits with 8 strikeouts. Tigers will send out Matt Boyd, who has surprised with a 1.38 ERA and 0.615 WHIP in his first two starts. I'm not a buying it. His first outing came against a bad Royals offense and the other against a struggling Indians offense in poor playing conditions. Boyd made two starts against the Orioles last year and it wasn't pretty, as he allowed 10 runs on 13 hits and 6 walks in a mere 7 innings of work. Detroit is just 1-11 in Boyd's last 12 starts and 6-21 in their last 27 after holding their previous opponent to 2 or fewer runs. Take Baltimore! |
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04-17-18 | Red Sox v. Angels -153 | 10-1 | Loss | -153 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
3* MLB Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Angels - As good as Shohei Ohtani has been threw his first two starts, the betting public will have a hard time passing up on getting the Red Sox at this big of an underdog. That tells me the books are confident Ohtani is going to come out strong here and LA will pull out the win at home. Ohtani has just 3 runs on a mere 4 hits in 13 innings over his first two starts. What really stands out is he's got 18 strikeouts and just 2 walks over this stretch. As good as Boston's lineup is, my money is on Ohtani getting the job done. I also look for the Angel's offense to put up a decent number here against David Price. LA is averaging 6.4 runs/game on the season and 6.7 when facing a lefty starter. Price completed just 1 inning in his last start and has now walked 5 over his last 8 innings of work. He also faced the Angels twice last year and gave up 9 runs on 13 hits and 4 walks in 11 innings. Take Los Angeles! |
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04-17-18 | Nationals -105 v. Mets | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Nationals - I really like the value here with Washington at basically a pick'em against the Mets on Tuesday. The Nationals stole the series opener, rallying from a 5-run deficit in the final 2 innings to pull out a 8-6 win. That's the kind of win that can propel a great team like Washington on a run. It's also a very difficult loss to bounce back from. On top of that the Nationals have to like their chances against New York with Gio Gonzalez on the mound. Gonzalez has gone 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA in 24 career starts against the Mets and what stands out even more is his 10-1 record with a 1.69 ERA in 15 career starts at Citi Field. Mets are just 5-14 in their last 19 home games off a loss by 2 runs or less, while the Nationals are 20-8 in their last 28 road games after a win by 2 runs or less. Take Washington! |
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04-17-18 | Indians v. Twins OVER 7.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under TOTAL BLOWOUT on Twins OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's showdown between the Twins and Indians in Puerto Rico, as the two teams play a 2-game set at Hiram Bithorn Stadium in San Juan. A lot of people are going to just look at the starting pitching matchup here with Corey Kluber going for the Indians and Jake Odorizzi starting for Minnesota. I think there's a decent chance at least one of these two struggle and maybe both. There's no familiarity with playing in San Juan and we are going to see much closer to summer weather in the states with temps approaching 80 with good humidity. The ball should carry well here and there's enough power bats on both sides to push this over the low number. Take the OVER! |
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04-15-18 | Pirates v. Marlins +139 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 3 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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04-14-18 | Angels -147 v. Royals | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Angels - I'm recommending laying the juice here and backing the Angels as a road favorite against the Royals on Saturday. LA has been even better than anticipated to start out the 2018 season. The Angels are 12-3 with an impressive 8-1 record on the road. That includes last night's 5-4 win over these Royals. I could see a lot of people considering taking KC at this price given how well today's starter, Jake Junis, has looked early on. Junis hasn't allowed a run in either of his first 2 starts. Those came against the Mariners and Tigers. LA is averaging 6.5 runs/game and are hitting .294 as a team with a .341 OBP. Note Junis faced these Angels once last year and allowed 5 runs on 8 hits in just 5 1/3 innings. I just think that given how bad the Royals are offensively, Garrett Richards will be able to keep them in check and the offense will do just enough to secure a victory. Take Los Angeles! |
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04-14-18 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Angels/Royals UNDER I'm recommending a play on the UNDER here in Saturday's MLB matchup that has the Angles visiting the Royals. Kansas City's offense is about as bad as it gets and their inability to score has played a huge part in the UNDER cashing in 9 of their 11 games this season. The 4 runs they scored last night was their second highest output of the season. I don't see them getting to that mark against Angels starter Garrett Richards, who is poised for a breakout performance in 2018. The even bigger key here is that while it won't be easy keeping this LA offense in check, the Royals will send out one of the hottest starters so far this season. Jake Junis is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.500 WHIP in 2 starts. He's pitched 7 shutout innings in each of his first two starts and allowed just 4 hits and 3 walks. Look for another strong showing here at home. Take the UNDER! |
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04-13-18 | Blue Jays v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Blue Jays/Indians UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Friday's series opener that has the Indians hosting the Blue Jays. Cleveland has scored 14 runs in their last 2 games, but that came against the Tigers. This is still an offense that is averaging just 3.5 runs/game and hitting a mere .189 as a team. I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction here with this total. I know it's been a rough start for Toronto's starter Marcus Stroman, but it's really just been his command that's hurt him. The big thing for me is just how good Stroman has been against Cleveland. He's got a 1.91 ERA and 1.152 WHIP in 5 career starts against them. All 5 of which have finished UNDER the total. Indians will send out Mike Clevinger, who often gets overlooked in Cleveland's elite starting rotation. Clevinger has been lights out in his 2 starts, posting a 0.71 ERA, as he's allowed a mere 1 run in 12 2/3 innings of work. Take the UNDER! |
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04-13-18 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Cardinals/Reds OVER I like the value here here with the OVER in Friday's NL Central action that has the Reds hosting the Cardinals. I cashed the OVER in last night's series opener between these two teams, as they combined for 17 runs, combining for 9 runs in the first 6 innings. That was with St Louis doing all the heavy lifting, as they put up a season-high 13 runs. I expect another big offensive night for the Cardinals in this one. The Reds pitching staff is taxed right now. The bullpen had to throw another 4 2/3 innings last night and figure to be asked to shoulder another heavy workload with Tyler Mahle starting. Mahle pitched well in his first outing against the Cubs, but was rocked for 5 runs on 9 hits in just 4 2/3 innings at Pittsburgh in his most recent start. St Louis does have one of their top starters in talented youngster Luke Weaver going, but chances are he gives up at least a few runs here. This is already a big time hitters park. Any mistake tonight figures to leave in a hurry to left field, as the wind is blowing out that way at close to 15 mph. Take the OVER! |
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04-12-18 | White Sox +175 v. Twins | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on White Sox + We are getting too much value here to pass up a play on the White Sox Thursday. Minnesota won the final two games of their series at home against the Astros to take the series. Teams really get excited about their first crack at playing the defending champs and I think we could see the Twins come out a bit flat here, as they now face a bottom feeder in the White Sox. I also think we are seeing Minnesota's Jose Berrios get a little too much love here. He got everyone's attention by throwing a complete game shutout in his first start, but in his very next start he allowed 5 runs on 6 hits before getting pulled in the 5th inning. I like the chances here of Chicago's Lucas Giolito keeping the White Sox in it and allowing them to do enough offensively to win this game. Take Chicago! |
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04-11-18 | Mets -137 v. Marlins | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Mets - I like the value here with the Mets as a relatively short road favorite against the Marlins. New York is 9-1 over their first 10 games and are clearly a team on a mission early. Hard to not like their chances here against Miami, who doesn't exactly have a home field advantage. Especially with what looks to be a pretty clear edge on the mound for New York, who will send out Zach Wheeler. After failing to make the big league roster on Opening Day, Wheeler has continued to pitch well in the minors and is going to come out firing to earn himself a spot long-term. On the flip side, the Marlins are giving the ball to Jarlin Garcia for his first ever big league start. Garcia has thrown quite a few innings in relief, but that's a whole different situation than starting. I look him to struggle here against a Mets offense that is averaging 5.8 runs/game away from home. Take New York! |
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04-11-18 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -109 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
5* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Orioles - I love the value here with Baltimore as a short home favorite against the Blue Jays on Wednesday. The Orioles are going to come out extremely motivated here to avoid getting swept on their home field by a division rival. We are getting a great price here due to how lopsided the starting pitching matchup looks on paper. Baltimore Kevin Gausman has a 8.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in 2 starts, while Toronto's Marco Estrada has a 2.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 2 starts. The key here is that Gausman's poor numbers primarily come from his first outing. He was much better in his second start and owns a 3.12 ERA over 13 career starts against the Blue Jays. As for Estrada, last time he made a start on the road against the Orioles, he gave up 6 runs on 10 hits in just 5 innings of work. Take Baltimore! |
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04-10-18 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 8 | 8-5 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pirates/Cubs UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's MLB action that has the Cubs taking on Pittsburgh in their home opener for 2018. Conditions here are going to favor a lower-scoring game. The temp will be around 40 with wind blowing in from left field. Chicago will send out Tyler Chatwood, who was able to overcome some command problems to limit the Reds to just 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innings. Chatwood is poised for a breakout year now that he's not pitching half his games at Coors Field. Pittsburgh will send out Ivan Nova. While he's not been on top of his game in his first 2 starts, I like his chances of slowing down the Cubs lineup that has been pretty hit or miss early on and is still playing without one of the top sluggers in Rizzo. Take the UNDER! |
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04-09-18 | Rays -126 v. White Sox | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Rays - I like the value here with Tampa Bay as a short road favorite against the White Sox. The Rays will send out their ace Chris Archer, who has had a tough go of things to start out 2018. A big reason for that is he's had to go up against the Red Sox and Yankees in his first 2 starts. Archer has struck out 14 in 11 innings, so the stuff is definitely there. I think he comes out and gets that first dominant start of the season against a White Sox offense that has scored just 1 run in their last 2 games combined. It's been an equally poor start to the season for Chicago starter Miguel Gonzalez, who allowed 6 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in just 5 innings at Toronto in his only start. I a lot more confident in Gonzalez's struggles carrying over to this outing, as the Rays should win here without much problem. Take Tampa Bay! |
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04-08-18 | Dodgers v. Giants +200 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on San Francisco Giants + I like the value here with the Giants as a massive home dog against the Dodgers on Sunday. San Francisco is riding a huge wave of momentum after Andrew McCutchen hit a 3-run walk-off home run in last night's 7-5 win in 14-innings. The Dodgers will have Clayton Kershaw on the mound, but LA has lost each of his first two starts, including a home game against these Giants. San Francisco will send out Ty Blach, who was roughed up for 6 runs on 10 hits in his last outing. However, Blach was sensational in an earlier start against these Dodgers, holding LA to just 3 hits over 5 shutout innings. That wasn't a fluke, as Blach now owns a 1.41 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Dodgers. Take San Francisco! |
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04-07-18 | Blue Jays v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Blue Jays/Rangers UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's MLB action that has the Rangers hosting the Blue Jays. Texas' Globe Life Park is typically a hitters park, but not today, as the ball simply isn't going to carry with the temp expected to be in the low 40s. We also have a couple of strong starters on the mound in this one. Toronto will send out Marcus Stroman, who is one of their top arms in the rotation. Stroman didn't have his best stuff in his first outing, but he also faced a good Yankees offense. Texas will send out Mike Minor, who held a potent Houston offense to just 2 runs on 3 hits in 4 2/3 innings in his first start. UNDER is 15-5 in the Blue Jays last 20 road games against a left-handed starter and 29-12 in their last 41 after scoring 8 or more runs in their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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04-07-18 | Cubs -136 v. Brewers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show |
5* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cubs - I love the value here with the Cubs, as I look for them to have no problem getting a win on the road against the Brewers Saturday. Chicago will send out their prized free agent pickup in starter You Darvish. While Darvish struggled in his first start at Miami, he's poised for a big bounce back effort here. I also think the Cubs are going to put up a big number here offensively against Milwaukee starter Zach Davies. Davies was hit hard at home in his last start against the Cardinals, giving up 7 runs on 8 hits in just 5 2/3 innings of work. Cubs are 35-16 in their last 51 off a loss and 26-7 in their last 33 road games vs a right-handed starter. Take Chicago! |
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04-06-18 | Blue Jays -110 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Blue Jays - I like the value here with the Blue Jays as a short road favorite against the Rangers on Friday. This one comes down to the starting pitching matchup for me and I give a big edge here to Toronto in that department. The Blue Jays will send out Marco Estrada, who will look to build on a strong first outing, where he allowed just 3 runs on 4 hits in 7 innings against a potent Yankees offense. Texas counters with Matt Moore, who was rocked for 4 runs on 7 hits in just 4 innings of work at home against the Astros in his first start of 2018. Moore has really struggled in nigh games, as his teams' are a mere 9-29 when he toes the rubber in a night game over the last 3 seasons. The Blue Jays on the other hand are 4-1 in their last 5 vs a left-handed starter and 7-1 in Estrada's last 8 starts vs the AL West. Take Toronto! |
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04-06-18 | Blue Jays v. Rangers OVER 10 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Blue Jays/Rangers OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Friday's MLB action that has the Blue Jays visiting the Rangers. Toronto comes in averaging 5.1 runs/game, despite hitting a mere .237 as a team in their first 7 games. While Texas is averaging just 3.0 runs/game, they have been swinging the bats much better of late. The Rangers have scored 12 runs on 24 hits in their last 3 games after scoring just runs in their first 5. While I like Blue Jays starter Marco Estrada, he like a lot of starters, is not nearly as good on the road as he is at home. So while Estrada allowed just 3 runs in 7 innings of his first start at home, look for a little bit more of a struggle on the road against the Rangers. The good news is he should get plenty of run support, as Toronto's offense should be able to put up a big number here against Texas starter Matt Moore, who lasted just 4 innings after giving up 4 runs on 7 hits in a 3-9 loss to the Astros. Take the OVER! |
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04-06-18 | Braves v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 8-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Braves/Rockies UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's MLB action that has the Rockies hosting the Braves. Typically you expect high-scoring games at hitter-friendly Coors Field, but I think this is one of the rare instances that we see more of a pitcher's duel. That's because the conditions for this game will negate the ball flying out of the park. The temp is expected to be in the mid 30's with wind blowing in at close to 15 mph from right field. We also have a couple of capable starters on the mound in this one. Colorado will send out German Marquez, who threw 5 shutout innings in his first start at Arizona. Atlanta will counter with Brandon McCarthy, who allowed just 2 runs in 5 1/3 in his first start at home against the Phillies. I'm not saying these two will completely shutdown the opposing offenses, but we should see strong enough outings to keep this well below the big total set here. Take the UNDER! |
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04-05-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on DBacks/Cards UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's MLB action that has the Cardinals hosting the Diamondbacks. Arizona has got off to an impressive 5-1 start behind an offense that is averaging 5.8 runs/game. While this should be one of the better offenses in the NL, the Diamondbacks definitely benefited from playing all of their games to this point at home at hitter-friendly Chase Field. Now they go to one of the more pitcher-friendly parks at Busch Stadium. One of the reasons I think we are getting such a favorable number here for the total is the struggles of Arizona starter Robbie Ray in his first start. While it's definitely concerning, Ray would be hard pressed to pitch as poorly as he did in his first outing. I look for a much better showing here and I'm also expecting a decent outing here from Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright to keep this well below the number posted by the books. Take the UNDER! |
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04-05-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -115 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Cardinals - I love the value here with St Louis as a short home favorite against the Diamondbacks. The Cardinals got off to a slow start, losing their first two games, but a lot of that had to do with those two coming against two of the NL's best starters in Syndergaard and deGrom. Since then they have won 3 of 4, including a 6-0 win yesterday against division rival Milwaukee. Both of St Louis' first two series were on the road, so there's going to be some added excitement and motivation here in the home opener. It's the exact opposite for Arizona, who got to play their first two series at home and now have to go on the road for the first time. This is also a big letdown spot for the Diamondbacks, who are fresh off a sweep against division rival Los Angeles. I also like the pitching matchup here, as the Cardinals send out veteran Adam Wainwright, who I believe will be much better than what we saw last year. Arizona counters with Robbie Ray, who was one of last year's breakout starters. However, Ray wasn't sharp at all in his first outing, giving up 7 runs on 7 hits (3 HRs) and 3 walks in 5 innings at home against the Rockies. Take St Louis! |
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04-05-18 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 8 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Rockies/Padres UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's MLB action that has the Padres hosting the Rockies. Today's pitching matchup features Tyler Anderson of Colorado against Joey Lucchesi of San Diego. Neither pitched well in their first start, but I think both are poised to pitch much better in their second outing. Anderson had the difficult task of making his first start at Arizona against a loaded Dbacks lineup and simply didn't have his best stuff. Lucchesi gave up just 3 runs in 4 2/3 innings. He really got in trouble early, giving up 2 runs in the first, which wasn't a big surprise given it was his first ever big league start. He really settled in nicely after the opening frame and I look for a better start in this one. Take the UNDER! |
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04-04-18 | Mariners v. Giants -117 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
5* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants - I love the value here with San Francisco as a small home favorite against the Mariners. The Giants will be extremely motivated here to get back in the win column after dropping their last 3 and they have just the guy on the mound to get the job done. San Francisco will send out veteran Johnny Cueto, who is looks poised for a big bounce back season after an injury-plagued 2017 campaign. Cueto was sensational in his first start of the season against the Dodgers. Cueto allowed just 1 hit over 7 shutout innings and took a perfect game into the 7th. While Seattle's Felix Hernandez also had a strong first start, he lasted just 5 1/3 innings and could see him struggling here. Mariners won the series opener 6-4 on Tuesday and that's worth noting as the Giants are 13-4 in their last 17 home games off a loss by 2 runs or less. Take San Francisco! |
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04-04-18 | Twins v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Pirates/Twins UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's MLB action that has the Pirates hosting the Twins. I look for both offenses to struggle to get anything going in this one. Minnesota will send out Jake Odorizzi, who came out firing, allowing just 2 hits over 6 shutout innings at Baltimore on Opening Day. Pittsburgh will counter with Ivan Nova, who allowed just 2 runs in 5 innings at Detroit in his first start. Key here with Nova is how dominant he was at home last year with the Pirates. He went 8-2 with a 2.80 ERA in 12 starts at PNC Park. UNDER is 43-19-2 in the Pirates last 64 games vs a right-handed starter and 11-2 in Nova's last 13 starts at home. UNDER is also 7-2 in the Twins last 9 vs a right-handed starter. Take the UNDER! |