7* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland A's -130

The Key: The Oakland A's have finally shown some signs of life here of late.  They have gone 4-2 in their last six games overall behind dominant pitching.  They have only allowed 10 runs in those six games.  I look for that dominance to continue on the mound tonight behind ace Sonny Gray.  Perhaps the most underrated starter in baseball, Gray has gone 5-2 with a 1.77 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.19 ERA and 0.626 WHIP in four home starts.  Gray will be opposed by the washed-up Chris Capuano, who has gone 0-2 with a 7.37 ERA and 1.910 WHIP in two starts for the Yankees this year.  The Yankees are 4-11 in their last 15 games overall.  The Yankees are 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.  New York is 0-7 in its last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starts.  New York is 1-4 in Capuano's last 5 starts.  The Yankees are 1-10 in their last 11 meetings in Oakland.  Take Oakland.

7* Indians/Mariners AL *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -117

The Key: Corey Kluber did not get off to the kind of start that you would expect from a reigning AL Cy Young winner.  However, he has returned to that Cy Young form over the last couple weeks.  Kluber has gone 2-0 with a 0.72 ERA and 0.640 WHIP with 37 strikeouts in 25 innings in his last three starts.  In his only lifetime start against Seattle in 2014, Kluber pitched a complete game shutout while allowing only three base runners in 9 innings of a 2-0 victory.  Seattle is 2-10 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games after shutting out their opponent over the last 3 seasons.  The Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Take Cleveland.

7* American League GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland A's +102

The Key: The Oakland A's could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now due to their 14-28 start to the season.  This team isn't as bad as its record would indicate when you consider that it has so many one-run losses in 2015.  The A's should not be underdogs tonight with the edge they have on the mound.  Jesse Chavez has gone 1-3 in spite of a 2.63 ERA and 1.114 WHIP over five starts and four relief appearances this year.  He'll be opposed by Alex Colome, who is 2-1 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in four starts for the Rays, including 1-1 with an 8.16 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in his last three.  Oakland is 14-5 in its last 19 vs. AL East foes.  The A's are 7-2 in their last nine meetings with Tampa Bay.  Take Oakland.

7* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Marlins -121

The Key: I like to back teams that make managerial or coaching changes in that first game.  These changes usually provide a spark for teams, which is exactly what the Marlins need after losing six of their last seven to drop to 16-22 on the season.  They do at least get to face a struggling Arizona Diamondbacks team that has lost four straight and seven of nine overall.  General manager Dan Jennings will be taking over for the fired Mike Redmond.  He'll watch Dan Haren take the mound tonight and continue his solid season up to this point.  Haren is 4-2 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in seven starts, including 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in three home starts.  He'll be opposed by Rubby De La Rosa, who is 4-2 with a 4.50 ERA on the season, but only 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA in three road starts.  Haren is 5-2 with a 3.63 ERA in seven lifetime starts versus Arizona.  Miami is 11-2 (+10.3 Units) against the money line after a game without an extra base hit over the last 2 seasons.  The Diamondbacks are 12-40 in their last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take Miami.

7* MLB *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland A's -157

The Key: The Oakland A's have been struggling, having lost eight of their last nine games overall.  However, they have been pretty unlucky this season with so many close losses.  In fact, eight of their last 11 losses have come by exactly one run.  They clearly aren't as bad as their record would indicate, and they certainly will be motivated for a win tonight.  Chicago has won 5 of its last 6, but that run comes to an end tonight.  John Danks is 1-3 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in six starts for Chicago, including 0-3 with a 7.10 ERA and 1.894 WHIP in three road starts.  He'll be opposed by Jesse Chavez, who has posted a 2.56 ERA and 1.009 WHIP in four starts and four relief appearances for the A's.  Chicago is 1-11 (-10.7 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.  The White Sox are 1-7 in Danks' last 8 road starts.  The A's are 9-1 in Chavez's last 10 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take Oakland.

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore Orioles +122

The Key: I'll back the Baltimore Orioles against the New York Yankees tonight at a generous price.  The Orioles will be motivated following two straight losses.  They will turn to their ace in Chris Tillman to get back on track tonight.  Tillman is coming off a great year, but he hasn't been up to par early, which has him undervalued.  He had one bad start against Toronto that has inflated his numbers, otherwise he's been solid.  Nathan Eovaldi sports a 3.81 ERA and 1.553 WHIP in five starts for the Yankees.  He simply allows too many base runners to be effective.  Eovaldi has really struggled in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, posting a 6.52 ERA and 1.656 WHIP in two starts there.  Tillman s 2-1 with a 2.10 ERA in his last five starts against New York, giving up 8 earned runs in 34 1/3 innings.  The Orioles are 24-6 in Tillman's last 30 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  Tillman is 8-0 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  The Orioles are 21-7 in Tillman's last 28 starts during Game 1 of a series.  Take Baltimore.

7* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -138

The Key: I'll back Michael Wacha and the red-hot St. Louis Cardinals, who have won five straight games entering Sunday.  Wacha is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in four starts in 2015.  He's up against Pittsburgh's Vance Worley, who is 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in four starts, including 0-2 with a 7.30 ERA in two road starts.  Wacha is 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA in three lifetime starts vs. Pittsburgh.  Worley sports a 4.96 ERA and 1.776 WHIP three career starts against St. Louis.  The Cardinals are 23-4 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in home games after 2 straight games with no home runs over the last 2 seasons. Take St. Louis.

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Red Sox -115

The Key: This is a classic case of a starting pitcher being overrated after one dominant start.  Ubaldo Jimenez shut down the Toronto Blue Jays in his first start of the season, but let's be honest, this guy is still terrible.  He has posted a 4.68 ERA or worse in three of the past four seasons, and he's not all of a sudden an elite starter in this league, though he's being treated like it tonight from oddsmakers.  Meanwhile, Joe Kelly remains an underrated starter.  He has gone 22-16 with a 3.36 ERA in his four-year career.  He allowed just one earned run over seven innings while striking out eight in an 8-4 win at New York in his first start this season.  Kelly is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in two career starts against Baltimore, while Jimenez is 1-4 with an 8.68 ERA and 1.982 HWIP in eight lifetime starts against Boston.  Boston is 15-4 (+11.5 Units) against the money line after 3 consecutive games versus an interleague opponent over the last 3 seasons.  Kelly is 9-3 (+8.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.  The Orioles are 1-6 in Jimenez's last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a loss.  Boston is 4-0 in Kelly's last 4 starts.  Take Boston.

7* NL East *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Nationals -129

The Key: Due to their tough 3-6 start, the Washington Nationals are actually undervalued right now.  But they are starting to get healthy, and that showed in their 10-5 outburst against the Red Sox yesterday.  They won't need many runs to beat the lowly Philadelphia Phillies today.  The Phillies are 0-4 in their last four games overall while scoring a combined 9 runs in the process.  Doug Fister led Washington's rotation in wins (16) and ERA (2.41) last year.  He has picked up right where he left off.  Fister pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings against Philadelphia on April 11th.  He is now 2-2 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five career starts against the Phillies.  Cole Hamels is 9-23 (-19.6 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Phillies are 0-7 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Philadelphia is 0-6 in its last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Nationals are 9-2 in Fister's last 11 home starts.  Take Washington.

7* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Marlins -104

The Key: The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves have gone in opposite directions through the first week of the season.  Due to their 1-6 start, I believe the Marlins are undervalued right now while the Braves are overvalued due to their 6-1 start.  I also expect the Marlins to be the hungrier team in this one.  Tom Koehler is an underrated starter for Miami.  He reached the seventh inning in his first start against Atlanta and allowed only two runs.  Koehler has posted a 2.81 ERA in his last five starts against the Braves.  Trevor Cahill went 3-12 with a 5.61 ERA in 32 games, 17 starts, last year for the Diamondbacks.  Plays against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ATLANTA) - allowing 3.3 or less runs/game on the season (NL), after allowing 4 runs or less 5 straight games are 33-13 (71.7%) over the last five seasons.  The Braves are 3-10 in their last 13 games as a favorite.  Take Miami.

7* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Angels -110

The Key: The Los Angeles Angels could not possibly be more hungry for a win than they are Sunday.  They were swept by the Royals in the postseason last year, and now they've lost the first two games of this series.  I have no doubt they want this one badly to avoid the 3-0 sweep, and I believe they'll get the win and get some payback Sunday.  They give the ball to C.J. Wilson, who is feeling great after pitching 8 shutout innings in a 2-0 win over Seattle in his first start of 2015.  Wilson has posted a 3.72 ERA in eight career starts against Kansas City as his teams have gone 6-2 in those contests.  Take Los Angeles.

7* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -105

The Key: The Chicago Cubs lost their opener to the St. Louis Cardinals at home.  They squandered several opportunities in a 3-0 defeat.  In fact, they went 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position.  I look for them to come through in this situations with much more regularity today.  They won't have to score much considering they will be giving the ball to Jake Arrieta, who just doesn't get the credit he deserves.  Arrieta went 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA in 25 starts last year.  He has owned the Cardinals, going 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA in five starts against them over the past two seasons, allowing only 3 earned runs in 29 1/3 innings.  The Cubs are 4-0 in Arrieta's last four home starts.  Take Chicago.

7* Cardinals/Cubs NL Central *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -108

The Key: The Chicago Cubs made some big moves this offseason to quickly become contenders in the NL Central.  Those moves will start paying off as soon as Opening Day.  Their biggest move was going out and getting an ace in Jon Lester, who continues to get better and better.  That trend should continue now that he'll be pitching in the National League for the first time in his career.  Lester went 16-11 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.110 WHIP last year, including 8-6 with a 1.95 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 17 home starts.  Lester has never lost to the Cardinals, going 3-0 on the money line against them while posting a 1.19 ERA and 0.882 WHIP.  Take Chicago.

7* World Series Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -134

The Key: Look for the Royals to stay alive behind a gem from Ventura, who outdueled Peavy in Game 2. The Royals are 6-0 in Ventura's last six starts, 6-0 in his last six starts versus winning clubs and 6-0 in his last six starts on five days' rest. The Royals are 9-0 in his starts in the second half of this season versus teams that strand 6.9 baserunners or less per game and 8-0 in his starts in the second half of this season versus teams that draw three walks or less per game. Peavy has a terrible track record at Kauffman Stadium, where his clubs are 0-6 in his last six starts. He's allowed six, five, six and four runs in his last four starts there. Take Kansas City.

7* MLB Playoffs Game of the Year on Giants -124

The Key: I'm not hesitating to get behind the proven track record of Vogelsong in this one. The Giants are 6-0 in his six career playoff starts, during which he's posted a 2.16 ERA. Omar Infante is the only KC regular with experience against Vogelsong and that bodes well for the Giants. While Vogelsong has been here and done this, this is the biggest game Vargas has ever pitched, and I expect him to give in to the pressure. The Giants just saw Vargas in August so they will have a much better understanding of his stuff. Vargas has had nine days between starts and typically hasn't performed well with extra rest, going 5-10 with a 4.59 ERA in 26 career starts with six or more days rest. The Royals are 2-5 in Vargas' last seven road starts. The Giants are 7-1 in their last eight home games versus a left-handed starter. Take San Francisco.

7* NLCS Game of the Year on Cardinals -102

The Key: I fully expect the Cardinals to even the series. They are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss, and they have the edge on the mound with Miller, who has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts. The Cardinals are 5-1 in his last six starts. The line has moved to the point where the Cardinals are now favored at some books so it is worth noting that they are 6-1 in Miller's last seven starts as a road favorite. It is also worth noting that the Giants are 2-12 in their last 14 games as a home underdog and 1-6 in Vogelsong's last seven starts as a home underdog. Vogelsong has given up four runs or more in four of his last six starts. The Giants are 3-7 in his last 10 starts and 3-8 in his last 11 home starts. Vogelsong has an ERA of 5.11 in 11 career starts against the Cardinals. Miller is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in two career starts versus the Giants. The Cardinals saw Vogelsong twice this season while the Giants haven't seen Miller since June 1, 2013. That also bodes well for the Cards. St. Louis is 16-6 this season when seeking revenge for a one run loss to an opponent. Take the Cards.    

7* MLB Playoffs Game of the Week on Cardinals -130

The Key: The Cardinals are a resilient team with a never-say-die attitude, and I fully expect them to bounce back strong in Game 2. Lynn has been consistently good at home where he has a 2.50 ERA in 18 starts this season. Peavy has been suspect on the road where he has a 4.36 ERA in 17 starts. The Cards are 12-2 this season in Lynn's home starts when the money line is +100 to -150. In addition, you want to fade underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 when they are up against an NL starter that has an ERA of 3.00 or less if they have a team batting average of .255 or worse and are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last three starts. Doing so has produced a 57-15 mark the last five seasons. Take St. Louis.

7* MLB Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -146

The Key: I like the Angels to even up the series behind Shoemaker. They are 17-4 all-time in his starts, including 7-0 in his last seven. Shoemaker has held the opposition to three runs or fewer in 10 straight starts and has held it to one run or none in five of his last six. Ventura was roughed up his final start of the regular season and then struggled in Tuesday's wild-card game, giving up a two-run homer and recording only one out on 13 pitches. I think he catches the Angels at a bad time too. Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Howie Kendrick and Josh Hamilton combined to go 0 for 18 last night, and they'll be very focused here as a result. Take LA.

7* MLB Game of the Week on Red Sox -105

The Key: This is a bad spot for the Yankees, who all celebrated Jeter's heroics in his last home game. Even though Boston is their biggest rival, their focus will be lacking in the aftermath of last night's thrilling victory. The Red Sox have scored 22 runs over their last two games and should be able to keep it going against Capuano, who has been hit hard the last couple months. In three career starts versus Boston, he's 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA. The Yankees aren't familiar with Wright and that plays to his advantage. The Yankees are 2-7 in their last nine road games. Boston is 14-1  in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 6.7 to 2.7. Take Boston.

7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Indians -101

The Key: The Indians have lost the first two games of this series, but they are a perfect 8-0 the last three seasons off two straight upset defeats at home to division opponents. They have won these games by an average score of 5.6 to 2.4. Kansas City's Vargas is really struggling, going 0-3 with a 9.01 ERA over his last three starts. Cleveland's Bauer has a 3.79 ERA over his last three starts and a 2.45 ERA in a pair of starts against the Royals this season. Vargas has a 4.12 ERA in three starts against Cleveland this season. The Indians are 8-1 in their last nine Game 3s of a series, 9-2 in their last 11 games as a home underdog, 25-8 in their last 33 home games versus a left-handed starter and 5-1 in Bauer's last six starts as a home underdog. Take Cleveland.

7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tigers -1.5 (-130)

The Key: Off back-to-back losses and clinging to a slim one-game lead in the Central, expect the Tigers to take care of business tonight.  Chicago's Scott Carroll has a 5.90 ERA in all starts this season and a 6.85 ERA in night starts.  The White Sox are 0-4 in his last four road starts, losing these by an average of 3.8 runs.  Detroit's David Price has an ERA of 3.41 on the season.  He's been inconsistent of late and was roughed up last time out, but the southpaw rarely makes two bad starts outings in a row.  Six of the last seven times he's allowed five earned runs or more, he's bounced back to hold the opposition to three earned runs or less in his next start.  Price's clubs are 4-1 in his last five starts versus the White Sox with each of these four victories coming by at least two runs.  The Tigers hammered Carroll in his lone start against them, tallying seven runs off him in five innings.  Detroit is 21-6 on the run line the last two seasons off an upset loss to a division opponent as a favorite of -150 or higher.  The Tigers have won these games by an average score of 5.8 to 3.0.  Take Detroit on the run line.

7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Yankees -139

The Key: The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last five games, and I expect their struggles to continue this evening.  Buehrle hasn't been able to figure out the Yankees, going 1-13 with a 6.14 ERA in 20 career starts against them.  His clubs are 2-18 in those starts, including 0-10 in the last 10 at Yankee Stadium.  New York's Brian McCann (10 for 24), Brett Gardner (12 for 29), Ichiro Suzuki (26 for 61) and Stephen Drew (7 for 16) have hit Buehrle hard. So has Jeter, who is hitting .347 with two homers in 49 career at-bats in the matchup.  The Blue Jays are 0-4 in Buehrle's last four road starts versus a team with a winning record.  The Yankees are 4-0 in their last four home games versus a left-handed starter.  Kuroda has been rock solid down the stretch with a 2.92 ERA over his last six starts.  He also has a 3.34 ERA in his last nine starts versus the Blue Jays.  He's 4-0 all-time in his home starts versus the Jays.  It's also worth noting that the Yankees are 4-0 in the last four meetings when Kuroda faces off against Buehrle.  Take the Yankees.

7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* Game of the Week on Phillies -130

The Key: The Phillies are showing value at this price with Hamels on the hill.  The southpaw has been nothing short of dominant, giving up three runs or fewer in his last 20 starts.  He has a 2.51 ERA on the season and a 1.80 ERA on the road.  Hamels, who grew up in San Diego, has enjoyed pitching against the Padres.  He has a 2.21 ERA in 15 career starts against them and a 1.85 mark in seven starts at Petco.  The Phillies are 7-0 in Hamels' last seven starts versus the Padres and 5-0 in his last five road starts against them.  Stults has a 4.49 ERA on the season and a 4.13 ERA at home.  To make matters worse, his 3.07 run-support average is among the lowest in baseball.  The Padres are 0-2 in Stults' last two home starts and 0-2 in his last two starts against the Phillies.  The Phillies are 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and the Padres are 0-5 in their last five Game 3's of a series.  Take Philadelphia.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -143

The Key: The Brewers are 0-8 in their last eight road games and 0-6 in their last six games as an underdog.  Look for their road struggles to continue here.  The Cardinals are 8-0 in their last eight home games, 4-0 in their last four series openers and 6-0 in their last six games versus starters with a WHIP greater than 1.300.  Peralta has a 1.345 WHIP on the season, a 1.449 WHIP on the road and a 1.787 WHIP over his last three starts.  Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday are both 8 for 18 against the right-hander.  Lynn has posted a 1.85 ERA over his last six starts and a 1.48 ERA over his last five starts against the Brewers.  Milwaukee's Aramis Ramirez (2 for 21), Carlos Gomez (3 for 17 with nine strikeouts) and Khris Davis (1 for 12) have struggled against Lynn.  The Cardinals are 5-0 in Lynn's last five starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last four home starts versus teams with a winning record.  Take St. Louis.

7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -150

The Key: Look for the Dodgers to bounce back from yesterday's loss against a San Diego club they have defeated in nine of the last 12 meetings at Chavez Ravine.  San Diego earned the upset victory yesterday, but it is 1-12 this season following an upset win over a division rival.  LA's Dan Haren is in top form with a 0.95 ERA over his last three starts.  San Diego's Ian Kennedy, on the other hand, has a 4.23 ERA over his last three starts, and the Padres are 0-4 in his last four road starts versus teams that have a winning record.  Every other time the Dodgers see Kennedy, they hit him hard.  He's given up at least 5 runs against them every other time he's faced them over the last two seasons.  Haren has been solid against San Diego this season, limiting the Padres to just eight earned runs in 21 1-3 innings of work.  Take the Dodgers.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -134

The Key: The Angels are 9-1 in their last 10 versus Texas, and I expect them to continue their dominance over their division rivals tonight.  Texas' Colby Lewis has a 7.17 home ERA on the season and a 5.36 ERA in 15 career starts versus the Angels.  He's given up 18 runs in his last two starts against them.  He's allowed an average of 7.44 hits per start on the season, and that bodes well for us.  LA is 11-0 this season versus starting pitchers who give up an average of seven hits per start or more.  It has won these games by an average score of 6.5 to 3.7.  LA's Hector Santiago has quietly been dealing.  He's allowed one earned run or none in four of his last five starts.  Take the Halos.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mets -145

The Key: The Mets are showing a ton of value at home at this price against a Colorado club that is 11-40 in its last 51 road games.  Look for Colorado's road struggles to continue against Niese, who has posted a rock solid 3.12 ERA at home this season.  The Mets are 7-0 in his last seven starts versus losing clubs and 4-0 in his last four home starts versus losing teams.  The Mets are also 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Lyles has struggled of late with a 6.00 ERA over his last three starts, and the Rockies are 0-4 in his last four road starts.  Take New York.

7* NL Game of the Week on Reds -113

The Key: Cincinnati is a strong value at this price with Simon on the hill.  The right-hander has a 3.11 home ERA on the season and has been a nightmare for soft hitting NL clubs like the Mets.  The Mets are batting a measly .236 as a team, and that spells bad news for them here.  Consider that Cincy is 13-0 this season in Simon's starts versus NL clubs with a batting average of .250 or worse.  The Reds have won these games by an average score of 4.2 to 1.8.  Colon has a 4.48 road ERA, and that's not going to cut it.  Take Cincinnati.

7* AL Game of the Week on Angels -138

The Key: The Angels saw their six-game win streak come to an end yesterday, but I expect them to bounce back strong behind ace Jered Weaver.  The Halos are 4-0 in his last four starts, 5-0 in his last five division starts and 5-0 in his last five road starts versus teams that have a losing record.  The Astros are 0-5 in McHugh's last five starts when he gets the ball on five days of rest.  The Angels are 5-0 in their last five games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  We'll take the better team with the more proven starter on the mound.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles -130

The Key: The Reds had yesterday off but are 0-5 in their last five games following a day off.  They are also 0-5 in their last five versus AL East clubs and 1-12 in their last 13 series openers.  The Orioles are 13-3 in their last 16 series openers.  They are also 6-0 in their last six Tuesday games and 4-0 in their last four interleague home games versus losing clubs.  Baltimore is 5-0 in Norris' last five series-opening starts, 5-0 in his last five home starts versus losing clubs and 4-0 in his last four starts as a home favorite.  The Reds are 3-7 in Latos' last 10 road starts.  Take Baltimore.

7* MLB Labor Day *HEAVY HITTER* on A's -135

The Key: Expect to see a hungry Oakland club after being swept in LA.  They now trail the Angels by five games so they know they need to take care of business in their next six home games.  The Athletics are 37-14 in their last 51 home games, 20-6 in their last 26 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 72-34 in their last 106 games as a favorite and 94-46 in their last 140 home games versus a right-handed starter.  The A's have seen Chris Young three times this season, winning two of the meetings.  Seattle hasn't seen Jason Hammel since very early last season, and that gives him a nice advantage.  Take Oakland.

7* MLB Underdog Game of the Month on Reds +124

The Key: The Reds are showing excellent value at this price with Cueto on the hill.  He has a 2.65 road ERA on the season and has owned Pittsburgh throughout his career.  He's 16-5 (18-8 on the money line) with a 2.38 ERA in 26 starts against the Pirates.  The Reds are 4-0 in his last four starts versus Pittsburgh.  Liriano has a 4.78 home ERA on the season, and the Pirates are 0-5 in his last five starts.  They are 0-4 in his last four starts as a favorite and 0-4 in his last four starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  He's struggled against the Reds this season, and the Pirates are just 2-6 all-time in his starts against them.  Take the Reds.

7* NL East Game of the Year on Nationals -156

The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, I expect the Nationals to jump all over Philly early in this one.  Philadelphia's Kendrick owns an NL-worst 6.10 ERA since June 22 and has a 9.69 ERA in the first inning.  He has a 5.15 ERA in 23 career starts versus Washington, including an 8.02 ERA in his last four starts in the series.  Fister has been unbelievable with a 2.38 ERA on the season.  He also has a 1.64 ERA in three career starts versus Philadelphia.  The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200, 4-0 in Fister's last 4 road starts and 4-0 in his last four starts in the third game of a series.  The Phillies are 0-5 in Kendrick's last 5 Wednesday starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus the Nationals.  Take Washington.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -131

The Key: I'll back one of the best home clubs in baseball here with Liriano on the hill. The Pirates are 20-8 in their last 28 at home.  They are in good hands with Liriano, who has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts.  The southpaw's clubs are 7-1 all-time in his starts versus St. Louis, and he's posted a tidy 2.34 ERA in these contests.  Lackey has a 6.50 ERA over his last three starts, and a Pittsburgh club that's batting an impressive .273 at home will welcome him to the mound.  The Pirates are 13-4 in their last 17 home games versus a right-handed starter.  The Cardinals are 5-12 in their last 17 meetings in Pittsburgh.  Take the Pirates.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -137

The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, the Brewers will bear down and bounce back strong.  They are 8-1 in their last nine after losing the first two games of a series, and they have a long history of dominating the Pirates.  They are 74-34 in the last 108 meetings, including 51-14 in the last 65 in Milwaukee.  Fiers is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts while striking out 25 and walking three.  In other words, he's been completely dominant.  Worley has struggled of late, going 0-2 in his last two starts while giving up 11 runs in 10 1-3 innings.  Worley is 0-2 in two career starts in Milwaukee.  The Brewers have won two of Fiers' last three starts versus the Pirates.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Mound Mismatch Game of the Month on Nationals -166

The Key: The Nationals, winners of 10 of 11, have the decisive edge in this matchup with Zimmermann getting the ball.  The right-hander has a 2.97 ERA on the season, a 2.85 ERA at home, a 2.75 ERA over his last three starts and a 1.83 ERA in his day starts.  Lincecum has a 4.50 ERA in his starts this season, a 6.06 ERA in his road starts, a 6.91 ERA over his last three starts and a 4.52 ERA in his day starts.  He has an ERA of 6.08 in nine starts versus Washington while Zimmermann has a 2.89 ERA in seven starts versus San Francisco.  The Giants are 0-6 in Lincecum's last 6 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 1-6 in his last seven starts versus the Nationals and 0-4 in his last four road starts versus the Nats.  The Nationals are 5-0 in their last five games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 6-0 in their last six games as a favorite of -151 to -200, 4-0 in Zimmermann's last four starts, 21-3 in his last 24 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 4-1 in his last five starts versus the Giants.  Take Washington.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves +105

The Key: The Braves have taken the first two games of the series and have now won 5 straight overall. Atlanta's not only getting great starting pitching during this stretch, but they are heating up at the plate. The Braves are 5-0 in their last 4 against the NL Central and 5-0 in their las 5 games with a total set at 7.0-8.5 runs. Atlanta will be starting Alex Wood, who has a 2.92 ERA over 8 road starts and 1.86 ERA over his last 3. Pittsburgh is 0-7 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record, 0-5 in their last 5 against the NL East and 0-7 in their last 7 with a total set at 7.0-8.5 runs. Great spot to fade the Pirates as Gerrit Cole figures to struggle in his first start back after missing over a month on the DL. Take Atlanta.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -113

The Key: I think Milwaukee relaxes here after beating Greinke and Kershaw.  The Dodgers, who haven't been swept all season, will bear down to salvage a game.  The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last seven games after losing the first two games of a series and 5-0 in their last five games after being held to two runs or less in their previous game.  The Brewers are 0-4 in their last four Sunday games.  Dan Haren's clubs are 3-0 in his three career starts versus Milwaukee.  He's posted an ERA of 0.90 in these games.  Milwaukee's Wily Peralta, on the other hand, has an ERA of 8.21 in two career starts versus the Dodgers.  Take Los Angeles.

7* NL Non-Division Game of the Month on Nationals -148

The Key: The Nationals have the edge with Roark on the hill.  Roark has given up just one run in each of his last five starts versus NL foes, and the Nats went 5-0 in those games.  He has a 2.40 home ERA on the season.  The Nationals are 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite and 4-0 in their last four games versus a right-handed starter.  They figure to have plenty of success versus Pittsburgh right-hander Morton, who has a 4.91 road ERA.  The Pirates are 0-4 in Morton's last four starts, and he was rocked in three of those.  The Pirates are also 0-4 in Morton's last four series-opening starts.  Take Washington.

7* MLB Run Line Rout on Angels -1.5 (+106)

The Key: The Angels are showing value on the run line given the edge they have on the mound with Weaver, who is 10-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his last 18 starts against NL clubs.  The Phillies are 0-5 in Burnett's last five starts, losing these by an average of 4.4 runs while he's compiled a 6.66 ERA.  They are also 0-5 in his last five road starts, losing these by 4.8 runs on average.  Burnett's clubs are 0-4 in his last four starts versus the Angels.  The Phillies are 0-7 in their last seven interleague games versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 in their last four interleague road games versus a team with a winning record.  They are also 0-8 in the last 8 meetings with the Angels.  Take LA on the run line.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -144

The Key: The Cardinals have the edge with Wainwright getting the ball.  The ace right-hander's 1.32 road ERA is the lowest road mark in baseball.  He's also had plenty of success versus the Marlins.  The Cards are 5-1 in his six career starts against them while he's posted a 2.25 ERA.  St. Louis is 12-1 since the start of last season in Wainwright's starts as a road favorite of -125 to -150.  It is 5-0 in his last five road starts when the total is 7.0-8.5 and 6-0 in his last six starts versus NL East clubs.  Wainwright's 1.019 WHIP is also noteworthy since the Marlins are 0-4 in their last four games versus a start with a WHIP less than 1.150.  Cosart is in poor form, having given up four runs or more in each of his last five starts.  Take St. Louis.

7* Run Line Rout of the Year on Mariners -1.5 (+105)

The Key: This is a terrible spot for Toronto, which played a 6-hour 37-minute, 19-inning marathon game yesterday and then had to make the long cross-country trip to Seattle.  To make matters worse, the Blue Jays will be facing Felix Hernandez, who has gone at least seven innings while allowing two runs or fewer in an MLB-record 15 consecutive starts.  He has a 1.42 ERA during this stretch while holding foes to a .168 average.  Seattle is 12-1 against the run line when playing on Monday this season, winning these games by an average score of 6.7 to 2.4.  You also want to fade road clubs with a +1.5 run line after a game where they had 17 hits or more if their bullpen has logged 13+ innings over the last three games.  Doing so has produced a 30-10 mark against the run line since 1997.  Take Seattle on the run line.

7* AL Game of the Week on Yankees -133

The Key: I'm not hesitating to fade the Indians with Carrasco on the mound.  He had a 6.95 ERA before being moved to the pen, and I expect his struggles to continue in a starting role.  The Indians are 3-14 in his last 17 starts.  New York's Kuroda has a 3.97 ERA in 23 starts and has been at his best in day games, posting a 3.55 ERA.  The Yankees are 4-0 in his last four starts as a home favorite.  It is also worth noting that Carrasco has an ERA of 7.98 in three career starts versus the Yankees while Kuroda has an ERA of 3.10 in three career starts versus the Indians.  The Yankees are 7-1 in their last eight home games versus Cleveland.  Take New York.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -116

The Key: The Royals are the hottest team in the majors, going an MLB-best 13-3 since July 22, and they are in good hands with Shields, who typically finishes strong.  He has a 1.99 ERA over his last six starts and is an impressive 26-12 with a 3.15 ERA in the month of August.  He has a 3.42 ERA in four interleague starts this season.  San Francisco's Hudson hasn't been as successful in interleague play, as evidence by his 7.41 ERA against the AL this season.  The Royals are 32-15 in Shields' last 47 starts, including 11-4 in his last 15 starts versus teams that have a winning record.  The Royals are 5-0 in their last five games, 4-0 in their last four interleague games, 6-0 in their last six games as a favorite and 6-0 in their last six interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Giants are 24-49 in their last 73 interleague road games, 15-37 in their last 52 interleague road games versus a right-handed starter and 6-21 in their last 27 games versus a team with a winning record.  They are also 0-4 in Hudson's last four starts on 4 days' rest.  Take Kansas City.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles -136

The Key: The Orioles have a major edge on the mound tonight.  Tillman has a 3.65 ERA on the season, a 2.78 ERA at home and a 2.00 ERA over his last three starts.  Masterson, meanwhile, has a 5.63 ERA on the season, a 6.80 ERA on the road and a 10.64 ERA over his last three starts.  He's also carrying an 8.31 ERA in his last three starts against Baltimore.  The Orioles are 28-11 in Tillman's last 39 starts versus a team with a winning record, 17-5 in his last 22 series-opening starts, 5-2 in his last seven interleague starts and 6-0 in his last six starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.  The O's are 6-0 in their last six series openers (St. Louis is 1-4 in its last 5), 4-0 in their last four interleague games as a favorite, 4-0 in their last four home games versus a right handed starter and 7-0 in their last seven games when their opponent scores five runs or more in its previous game.  Take the Orioles.

7* MLB Total of the Week on Indians/Reds Under 7.5 (-115)

The Key: We've seen each of the first three games of this series finish over the total with at least eight runs scored in each, but I expect this one to come in well under the number.  Homer Bailey has been dealing.  He's given up three earned runs or fewer in six straight starts, including one or no runs in four of those.  The under is 3-0 in his last three starts.  The under is also 5-0 in Bailey's last five starts versus the Indians.  Cleveland's House has held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in six straight starts.  The Indians are 2-0 under in his last two starts and 3-0 under in his last three road starts.  Bailey has received just two runs of support over his last two starts, and I expect the Reds to have trouble scoring against a starter they aren't familiar with.  Take the under.

7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -145

The Key: I'll fade the Dodgers with Haren on the hill.  They are 0-5 in his last five starts, during which he has posted a 10.03 ERA.  Haren has struggled on the road all season, as evidenced by his 5.40 ERA away from Chavez Ravine.  The Angels' are 10-3 in Shoemaker's 13 career starts, including 2-0 in his last two.  He's been strong at home where he has a 2.76 ERA in seven starts this season.  The Dodgers are 27-57 in their last 84 interleague road games, 0-5 in their last five interleague games versus a right-handed starter and 0-4 in their last four games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Angels are 37-15 in their last 52 at home, 5-0 in their last five home games following a road trip of seven days or more and 8-0 in their last eight Game 3's of a series.  The Halos are also 25-9 in their last 34 home games versus the Dodgers.  Take the Angels.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -139

The Key: The Pirates will be at home for the first time since July 23, and home field has treated them well.  They are 16-5 in their last 21 home games and 41-16 in their last 57 home games following a road trip of seven days or more.  They are 6-0 in their last six home games versus clubs with losing records and 4-0 in their last four versus NL East opponents.  They're also 6-0 in their last six home games versus the Marlins.  Pittsburgh is in good hands with Morton, who has a 1.36 ERA in his past six starts at PNC Park.  The Pirates are 4-0 in his last four home starts and 3-0 in his last three starts versus the Marlins.  He's also 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two career home starts versus Miami.  The Marlins are 4-12 in Hand's last 16 starts and 1-7 in his last eight starts versus a team with a winning record.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Interleague Game of the Year on Dodgers -125

The Key: This is a tough spot for the Angels, who make the long cross-country trip from Tampa Bay to face Zack Greinke at Chavez Ravine where he has a 2.27 ERA since joining the Dodgers.  The Dodgers are 20-4 in his last 24 home starts, 12-1 in his last 13 home starts as a favorite of -125 to -175 and 7-0 in his last seven home starts when the total is 6.5 or lower.  The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last six games versus winning teams and 6-0 in their last six home games versus teams with winning road records.  Greinke has been sharp in his last two starts, giving up one run in 15 innings.  Garrett Richards has struggled lately, giving up eight runs in 13 innings in his last two starts.  The Angels are 1-5 in Richards' last six starts as an underdog.  Take the Dodgers.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -126

The Key: Garza has struggled on the road where he has a 4.87 ERA.  He's also struggled against the Cardinals, as evidenced by the 4.81 ERA he's posted in nine starts against them.  Garza is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in two starts versus the Cardinals this season.  His clubs are 0-4 all-time in his starts in St. Louis, during which he's posted a 9.56 ERA.  Jhonny Peralta is 13 for 30 against Garza, Matt Holliday is 9 for 24, Matt Adams is 6 for 8 and A.J. Pierzynski is 4 for 14 with two home runs.  The Brewers are 2-6 in Garza's last eight road starts and 1-6 in his last seven starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  The Cardinals are 70-31 in their last 101 home games versus right-handed starters.  I expect Lackey to provide a spark for the Cards.  He's 18-10 with a 3.07 ERA against NL teams.  The Brewers are 19-39 in the last 58 meetings.  Take St. Louis.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mets -123

The Key: The Mets lost the first game of the series 5-1, but they are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss, 4-0 in their last four games after allowing five runs or more and 5-0 in their last five games after being held to two runs or less.  They are in excellent hands with deGrom getting the ball.  The right-hander is 4-0 in his last four starts while giving up just two runs in 27 1-3 innings.  Peavy's clubs are 0-10 in his last 10 starts and 0-8 in his last eight road starts.  He has a 5.87 road ERA on the season while deGrom has a 1.83 home ERA.  Take the Mets.

7* MLB Run Line Rout on Tigers -1.5 (-115)

The Key: Justin Verlander has been unstoppable against the NL, going 24-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 31 interleague starts, including 13-0 in his last 13 decisions.  The Tigers are 2-0 in his two career starts versus the Rockies, and he's posted a 1.84 ERA in these contests.  Verlander is also 14-0 with a 2.14 ERA in 15 interleague home starts.  He should be able to have his way with a Colorado club that is 0-6 in its last six and 4-18 in its last 22 interleague road games.  The Rockies are 2-15 in their last 17 road games and 10-29 in their last 39 games overall.  Colorado's Franklin Morales has struggled in interleague play with a 5.76 ERA in 21 appearances.  The Rockies are 0-4 in his starts versus the AL this season, during which he's posted a 7.94 ERA.  Take the Tigers on the run line.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Indians -128

The Key: The Indians are an impressive 38-15 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 under Francona, and I'll gladly get behind them at this price against a Seattle club they are 7-1 against in the last eight home meetings.  Seattle's Chris Young hasn't had the same stuff on the road where he has a 4.25 ERA.  Plus, Cleveland should benefit from having had a look at him just a month ago.  The Mariners are 1-4 in Young's last five starts as a road underdog.  It is also worth noting that Seattle is just 1-5 in its last six Game 3's of a series.  The Indians are 2-0 in McAllister's last two home starts versus the Mariners.  They are 8-3 in his last 11 starts as a favorite and 5-1 in his last six starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take Cleveland.

7* AL Central Game of the Year on Royals -144

The Key: The Royals have a significant advantage with Danny Duffy on the mound.  The southpaw has a 2.47 ERA and a WHIP of 1.078 on the season.  He is in top form, holding opponents to one earned run or none in five of his last six starts.  The Royals are 3-0 in his last three starts versus the Twins.  He's held them to one earned run in his last two starts spanning 12 1-3 innings.  The Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last four starts as a favorite.  Minnesota is 30-78 in its last 108 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150, including 0-12 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or less.  It has lost these 12 by 4.3 runs on average.  Minnesota's Phil Hughes is in poor form with a 6.31 ERA over his last seven starts.  He's given up at least five runs five times during this stretch.  He appeared to be on his way to another poor outing in his last start when he gave up two runs in three innings before leaving in the fourth after being hit on the right ankle with a comebacker.  Hughes has an ugly 5.89 ERA in nine starts versus Kansas City.  The Twins are 4-10 in their last 14 meetings in Kansas City.  Take the Royals.

7* MLB Run Line Rout of the Week on Marlins +1.5 (-135)

The Key: The Marlins, who are 5-0 in their last five games, are showing major value catching runs at home at this price.  Strasburg is not in good form (5.00 ERA L3 starts), and he's struggled on the road all season (5.09 ERA).  Strasburg has also struggled in Miami, giving up 7, 7, 4 and 6 runs in his last 4 starts there.  The Nationals went 1-3 in these starts, are 2-6 in Strasburg's last 8 starts overall and 2-5 in his last 7 road starts.  Alvarez has been unbelievable at home where he has a 1.64 ERA.  The Marlins are 13-3 in his last 16 starts and 8-1 in his last 9 home starts.  He has a solid 3.19 ERA in 6 starts versus Washington.  Take the Marlins on the run line.

7* National League Game of the Week on Reds -125

The Key: The Reds have lost eight of nine, but six of the losses came on the road to the Yankees and Brewers and two came to the Nationals.  I expect Cincinnati to get off the snide here against an Arizona club that is 15 games under .500.  The Reds are 6-1 in their last seven home games versus losing clubs and 8-2 in their last 10 home games versus teams with losing road records.  The D-backs are 4-9 in their last 13 road games and 1-5 in their last six road games versus a right-handed starter.  Cincy's Bailey has a 2.79 ERA over his last seven home starts, and the Reds are 2-0 all-time in his starts versus Arizona.  Cincy is 11-4 in its last 15 versus the D-backs, including 5-1 in the last six and 3-0 in the last three.  Arizona is 5-19 since 1997 in road games when seeking revenge for two straight losses to an opponent as a home favorite.  It is also 4-12 this season when seeking revenge from two straight home losses to an opponent.  Take the Reds.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Yankees -132

The Key: The Yankees are 39-12 in their last 51 home games versus the Blue Jays, including 21-3 since the start of the 2012 season.  Look for New York's dominance over Toronto to continue here.  Toronto's Happ has struggled on the road where he has a 5.87 ERA.  He's also struggled versus the Yankees, as evidenced by the 5.22 ERA he's posted against them in seven career starts.  The Blue Jays are 0-4 in his last four starts versus the Yankees.  The Jays are 3-11 in their last 14 road games, 5-14 in their last 19 as an underdog and 2-10 in their last 12 Game 3's of a series.  Toronto isn't familiar with Greene, who has a 2.79 ERA on the season.  Take the Yankees.

7* MLB Game of the Week on White Sox -165

The Key: Chicago has a huge advantage with Sale on the mound.  The southpaw is 9-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.863 WHIP.  His WHIP is extremely significant because Minnesota is 0-11 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or lower.  The Twins have lost these 11 by 4.0 runs on average.  It is also worth noting that they are 30-77 in their last 107 games versus starters with a WHIP less than 1.150.  The White Sox are 15-2 in Sale's last 17 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 5-1 in his six career starts versus the Twins.  Minnesota is 0-5 in its last five versus losing clubs and 0-6 in its last six home games versus losing clubs.  Take Chicago.

7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Astros -123

The Key: The Marlins check in off a 3-2 win in Atlanta while the Astros are coming off a 13-1 defeat in Oakland.  However, you want to fade teams off a win of two runs or less when they are up against an opponent off a loss of 12 runs or more.  Doing so has produced a 28-11 mark since 1997 and a 9-1 mark the last five seasons.  Houston's Keuchel has struggled over his last five starts, but all five were on the road.  I expect a strong performance from him at home where he's given up just four runs in his last 23 innings.  Miami's Hand has a 5.02 ERA in six starts.  The Marlins are 3-11 in his last 14 starts, 1-6 in his last seven road starts, 0-4 in his last four series-opening starts and 0-4 in his last four starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Marlins are 0-4 in their last four interleague games, 0-4 in their last four interleague games as an underdog, 0-4 in their last four versus AL West clubs and 0-4 in their last four versus losing clubs.  They are also 38-86 in their last 124 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The Astros are 38-15 in their last 53 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take Houston.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mariners -128

The Key: Off back-to-back losses to the Mets, I like Seattle to bounce back strong behind Iwakuma.  The Mariners are 14-4 all-time in his starts following two consecutive losses or more.  Iwakuma has a 2.95 ERA and a 0.994 WHIP on the season, a 2.81 home ERA and a 0.937 home WHIP on the season and a 1.59 ERA and 0.662 WHIP over his last three starts.  The Orioles are 0-4 in their last four games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150.  Chen's numbers don't stack up.  He has a 4.21 ERA and 1.303 WHIP on the season and a 4.68 ERA and 1.323 WHIP on the road.  Plus, he is 0-2 in his last two starts against the Mariners, giving up eight runs in 11 innings.  You want to fade underdogs of +100 or higher that are starting a pitcher with a winning percentage above 70% if they are up against an AL opponent that is starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or better.  Doing so has produced a 54-12 (82%) mark the last five seasons.  Take Seattle.

7* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on Rockies +1.5 -115

The Key: The Rockies are showing a ton of value catching runs at home at a very reasonable price with De La Rosa on the mound.  The Rockies have lost seven in a row, but they are 21-3 the last two seasons in De La Rosa's starts following a loss.  This trend tightens up to a near-perfect 9-1 if they are off three consecutive defeats or more.  They are a jaw-dropping 43-8 in his last 51 home starts and 12-1 the last two seasons in his day starts.  It is also worth noting that the Rockies are 5-1 in De La Rosa's last six starts versus Nationals.  Strasburg hasn't had the same stuff on the road where he has a 4.92 ERA.  Take Colorado on the run line.

7* MLB Total of the Week on Astros/A's Under 7.5 (-105)

The Key: Oakland busted out at the plate Sunday but was batting just .234 this month prior.  Expect its offensive struggles to continue against Oberholtzer, who has a 3.09 ERA over his last five starts.  He's allowed a total of two earned runs in 11 2-3 innings in two career starts in Oakland.  The under is 2-0 in those starts.  Houston doesn't figure to get much of anything off Kazmir, who has given up two or fewer runs in 10 of his last 12 outings and has a 1.57 ERA at home in 2014.  He's given up three earned runs or fewer in three career home starts versus the Astros.  The under is 3-0 in those starts.  The under is 4-0 in Kazmir's last four home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  It's also 6-0-1 in Oberholtzer's last seven starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  Take the under.

7* Interleague Game of the Week on Tigers -134

The Key: Detroit is a major league-best 28-16 on the road and has won 11 of its last 14 away from home while averaging 5.9 runs and batting .302.  Look for its road dominance to continue here with Verlander on the mound.  The Tigers are 22-6 in his last 28 interleague starts, and he has a 2.12 ERA over his last 14 regular-season starts versus the NL.  Detroit is 9-0 all-time under Ausmus in road games following six consecutive games versus division foes.  It has won by an average score of 7.1 to 2.9 in this spot.  The Tigers are also 7-0 in their last seven games with a total of 9.0-10.5 and 4-0 in their last four interleague games versus a left-handed starter.  The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last four games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Take Detroit.

7* AL Game of the Week on Tigers -130

The Key: The Tigers are 5-1 in their last six games after losing the first three games of a series, and I expect them to improve on this trend here.  They are still 35-16 in their last 51 home meetings with the Indians.  Cleveland hasn't hit southpaw starters well, averaging just 3.8 runs per game against them on the season.  It will have a tough time getting to Smyly, who has given up three earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 home starts.  He's also been tough on the division with a 2.87 ERA versus AL Central foes this season.  Cleveland's Tomlin will be tested by a Detroit offense that is averaging 4.9 runs per game off right-handed starters.  He has allowed four runs or more in five of his last six starts and has a 7.06 ERA in four career starts versus Detroit.  The Indians are 1-5 in Tomlin's last six starts and 0-2 in his two career starts in Detroit.  Take the Tigers.

7* MLB Game of the Week on Pirates -144

The Key: The Rockies are just 15-36 in their last 51 overall, 31-67 in their last 98 on the road and 1-10 in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning record.  The Pirates are 4-0 in their last four at home, and I expect them to keep right on rolling against this struggling Colorado club.  Charlie Morton has been one tough cookie at home where he has posted a 1.10 ERA over his last five starts.  The right-hander has a 1.93 ERA in two career starts at PNC against Colorado.  Colorado's Brett Anderson has a 4.95 ERA on the season and a 5.14 ERA over his last three starts.  His clubs are 1-6 in his last seven starts.  You want to fade July NL road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 that allow 4.8 runs per game or more.  Doing so has produced a 41-7 mark the last five seasons.  This system is a near perfect 9-1 the last three seasons.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -117

The Key: The Cardinals have the edge with Lynn getting the ball.  He's 6-2 with a 2.83 ERA in 10 home starts.  He was rocked in L.A. last month but had a blister on his middle finger that limited him to throwing all fastballs.  Prior to that, he was 4-0 with a 1.40 ERA versus the Dodgers.  With his finger healed, I expect him to go back to dominated L.A.  Haren has been rocked in his last two starts (12 runs allowed in 9 1-3 innings), and he's been hit hard on the road all season (5.05 ERA).  The Dodgers are 2-5 in Haren's last seven road starts while the Cardinals are 7-2 in Lynn's last nine starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning record and 67-28 in their last 95 home games versus a right-handed starter.  The Dodgers are 3-10 in their last 13 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 17-38 in the last 55 meetings in St. Louis.  Take the Cards.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -144

The Key: The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with the southpaw Ryu against a San Diego club that is batting .195 and averaging just 2.6 runs per game versus left-handed starters.  The Dodgers are 19-5 in Ryu's last 24 starts versus a team with a losing record.  Ryu is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.93 in three career starts versus the Padres.  The Dodgers are batting .265 and averaging 4.3 runs per game off right-handed starters.  The Padres are 1-6 in Ross' last seven starts, including 0-3 in his road starts during this stretch.  The Padres are 0-4 in his last four division starts, 0-4 in his last four starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in his last four starts following a team loss.  The Padres are also 0-3 in his last three starts versus the Dodgers.  Take Los Angeles.

7* AL Central Game of the Month on Royals -117

The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, the Royals will bear down and get one back this evening.  Kansas City is an outstanding 42-19 in its last 61 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and I'll gladly get behind it at this price with Shields on the hill.  The Royals are 30-12 in Shields' last 42 starts, 14-5 in his last 19 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 10-3 in his last 13 starts versus a team with a winning record.  He was hit hard the last time he faced Detroit and will be extremely focused here as a result.  Porcello is having an outstanding season, but he isn't the same caliber of Shields.  Take Kansas City.

7* Interleague Game of the Month on Rockies -157

The Key: The Rockies are worth the price at home with Jorge De La Rosa on the mound.  They are an unbelievable 42-9 in his last 51 home starts and 18-3 in his last 21 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Rockies are 16-6 in their last 22 games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 14-3 in their last 17 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  I do not see inexperienced starter Kris Johnson faring well in his first starts at flighty Coors against a Colorado offense that is batting .312 there.  The Twins are 4-12 in their last 16 interleague games, 1-5 in their last six interleague games as an underdog and 0-5 in their last five series openers.  Take Colorado.

7* American League Game of the Month on Angels -116

The Key: The Angels are showing a lot of value at this price versus a Texas club that has dropped 18 of 21.  The Halos have lost eight straight versus the Rangers in Texas, and will be out to bring that skid to an end.  They're looking at this series as an opportunity to gain more ground on the A's, and I expect them to be extremely focused.  The Angels are 7-0 in their last seven division contests while the Rangers are 0-8 in their last eight versus AL West foes.  The Rangers are even 0-4 in their last four home games versus a team with a losing road record and 0-7 in their last seven games versus a starter with a WHIP above 1.300.  I like LA here regardless of who gets the start.  The southpaw Santiago is scheduled, and the Rangers are 0-6 in their last six games versus a left-handed starter.  Texas is really struggling to generate offense, averaging just 3.6 runs over its last 11 games.  The Halos are averaging 5.8 runs over their last 19 games.  I don't see Texas' Lewis, who has a 6.54 ERA at home, having an answer for this offense.  Texas is 1-10 this season as a home dog of +100 or higher.  Take LA.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -138

The Key: The Braves are 5-0 in their last five Game 2's of a series while the Mets are 6-22 in their last 28 Game 2's, and I expect these trends to continue.  Atlanta's Teheran has a 2.29 ERA on the season, a 1.79 ERA in division play and a 1.44 ERA in four starts versus the Mets.  The Braves are 8-1 in his last nine road starts versus teams with a losing record.  New York's deGrom has struggled under the lights.  The Mets are 0-7 in his night starts, during which he's posted a 4.99 ERA.  They are also 0-4 in his home starts.  New York is a lousy 28-62 in its last 90 games as a home underdog.  Take the Braves.

7* Run Line Rout of the Month on Nationals -1.5 (+126)

The Key: Strasburg is 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last nine home starts while Tillman has an ERA of 5.53 in 10 road starts and an 11.90 ERA in three interleague starts.  Tillman is averaging only 5.5 innings per start on the road and 3.8 innings in interleague play.  In other words, an early departure figures to put a lot of pressure on a bullpen that has been taxed the last two days.  Showalter said that certain relievers won't take the mound after his pen worked 12 1-3 innings over the last two days.  You want to fade underdogs with a money line of +150 or more that are starting a pitcher who has an ERA of less than 2.50 over his last five starts if the bullpen has worked nine innings or more in the last two games.  Doing so has produced a 66-13 mark since 1997, a 22-4 mark the last five seasons, a 14-1 mark the last three seasons and a 2-0 mark this season.  Teams fitting into this system have lost by 2.3 runs on average.  Take Washington on the run line.

7* MLB Total of the Month on Rays/Tigers Under 8

The Key: I expect a pitcher's duel between Sanchez and Archer to finish under the number.  Sanchez has an ERA of 2.34 in his last 10 starts while holding opponents to a .195 average.  Tampa Bay's Archer has posted a 1.65 ERA over his last nine starts.  The "under" is 10-1 in Archer's last 11 starts as an underdog,  5-0 in his last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150, 5-0 in his last five starts versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 in his last four road starts versus a team with a winning record.  The "under" is 20-8-2 in the last 30 meetings between these clubs and 5-1 in the last six games umpire Mark Carlson has been behind home plate.  Take the under.

7* Pre All-Star Break Game of the Year on Cardinals -148

The Key: The Marlins have been a poor investment on the road where they are 40-86 in their last 126 road games.  They've also been a poor investment against the Cardinals, going 17-35 in the last 52 meetings, including 0-5 in the last five in St. Louis.  It is also worth noting that Miami is 0-7 in its last seven games versus a winning team and 0-5 in its last five games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Scheduled starter Eovaldi has been struggling, giving up five earned runs or more in three of his last four starts.  The Marlins are 0-6 in Eovaldi's last six starts versus National League Central foes and 0-4 in his last four starts versus a club that scored five runs or more last game.  The Cardinals are a lethal 42-13 in their last 55 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400.  Lynn will be focused following a rough outing in L.A.  He's been strong at home (3.22 ERA) and has given up two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts prior to his last.  The Cardinals are 9-3 in Lynn's last 12 starts versus National League East opponents and 11-4 in his last 15 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Take St. Louis.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Reds -126

The Key: I'll back the Reds in this bounce-back spot behind ace Johnny Cueto.  First off, the Reds are 10-2 in their last 12 games after losing the first two games of a series, 6-1 in their last seven Game 3's of a series and 21-6 in their last 27 Wednesday games.  Cueto has a 1.88 ERA on the season and a microscopic 0.75 ERA in day starts.  The Reds are 4-0 in Cueto's last four starts, 39-14 in his last 53 starts as a favorite, 21-5 in his last 26 starts in the third game of a series, 17-5 in his last 22 Wednesday starts and 11-2 in his last 13 starts versus the NL West.  The Padres are 3-9 in their last 12 Game 3's of a series and 2-7 in their last nine Wednesday games.  Tyson Ross hasn't been as sharp lately (4.12 ERA L3 starts), and the Padres are 0-5 in his last five starts.  They are also 0-5 in his last five starts following a "quality start" in his last appearance, 0-4 in his last four home starts and 0-4 in his last four Wednesday starts.  Take Cincinnati.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -128

The Key: The Pirates have won seven of nine, and I expect them to keep right on rolling behind a gem from Locke.  They are 3-0 in his last three starts, during which he's posted a 2.95 ERA.  He should have success against an Arizona club that is batting .221 over its last seven games and is a major league-worst 6-12 against left-handed starters.  Locke has a fantastic 0.980 WHIP on the season, and this figure is significant because the Diamondbacks are 5-21 in their last 26 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150.  Arizona's Miley is 0-3 with a 4.74 ERA over his last eight starts, and the D-backs are 0-5 in his last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* AL East Game of the Month on Orioles -130

The Key: Tampa Bay has struggled on the road where it is batting .228 and averaging 3.0 runs per game.  It has also struggled against left-handed starters, batting .239 and averaging 3.3 runs per game against them.  Look for these struggles to continue in Baltimore while facing Chen.  The Orioles are 8-1 this season in his starts versus AL clubs that average 4.2 runs per game or less, and they have won these games by an average score of 6.2 to 3.0.  The Rays are 3-12 in their last 15 road games and 0-5 in their last five road games versus a left-handed starter.  Bedard has been a dead fade as his clubs are 11-27 in his last 38 starts.  Bedard has a 6.30 ERA in seven starts versus the Orioles while Chen has a 2.98 ERA in 10 starts versus Tampa Bay.  The Orioles are 5-0 in their last five Game 3's of a series.  The Rays are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings.  Take Baltimore.

7* AL Total of the Year on Angels/Royals Under 8.5

The Key: The Angels have been rolling but expect their bats to slow down on the road as they face former teammate Jason Vargas.  He has been dialed in with a 2.70 ERA over his last three starts.  Having spent last season with the Angels, Vargas knows them well.  That was apparent when he held them to one run on three hits in 6 1-3 innings May 25.  He has an ERA of 2.44 in 13 career starts against them.  LA's Matt shoemaker is also in good form with a 2.61 ERA over his last three starts.  He gave up just two earned runs to the Royals May 24.  Kansas City has been struggling at the plate, averaging just 2.4 runs over its last seven games.  You want to play the "under" on home teams when the total is 8.0 to 8.5 in AL action if they have an on-base percentage of .320 or lower, are starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or lower and facing a starter with a WHIP of 1.300 or better.  Doing so has produced a 61-29 mark the last 5 seasons, and we've seen just 7.4 runs scored on average in these games.  Vargas is 10-1 "under" the last three seasons in home games versus clubs with a win percentage of 54-62%.  The "under" is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City.  Take the Under.

7* American League Game of the Month on Royals -140

The Key: The Royals have lost three in a row since rattling off 10 straight and are now 1.5 games behind Detroit in the AL Central.  This little slide is sitting well with them, and I expect them to bear down here to salvage a game in the series.  Kansas City's Ventura is in great form.  He's 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA over his last three starts, shutting down the Cardinals, Indians and Tigers.  10 of his 13 starts have been strong as he's allowed three runs or less in the 10.  Seattle's Elias has struggled of late with a 5.50 ERA over his last three starts.  He's been inconsistent, giving up four runs or more in five of his last eight starts.  The Royals are an impressive 39-15 in their last 54 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take KC.

7* MLB Run Line Rout on Royals -1.5 (+133)

The Key: The Royals are 9-1 against the run line in their last 10 games, and they are in excellent position to cover another one here.  The Royals have dropped back-to-back games since winning 10 in a row and will be extremely focused to get back in the win column.  They have been crushing the ball, averaging 6.3 runs over their last 12 games, and the offensive onslaught should continue against Chris Young, who has a 5.18 ERA on the road.  His clubs are 2-6 in his last eight road starts, including 0-3 in his last three.  Jason Vargas has been in great form over his last five starts, and he's had no problem with Seattle lately.  He's 3-0 in his last three starts against the Mariners while giving up only three runs in 20 1-3 innings.  Each of these wins came by at least four runs.  The Royals are 6-0 in their last six Game 2's of a series, 7-0 in their last seven when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game and 7-0 in their last seven after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.  You want to fade AL road underdogs of +150 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or lower on the season when they are matched up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who averages more than 6.5 innings per starts.  Doing so has produced a 61-9 mark the last five seasons that carries a 2.7 average margin of victory.  Take the Royals on the run line.

7* MLB Blowout Game of the Year on Cardinals -160

The Key: The Phillies have had a tough time putting the bat on the ball against left-handed starters.  They are batting only .225 against them and averaging just 2.9 runs.  These struggles are nothing new as the Phillies are 13-27 in their last 40 road games versus left-handed starters.  Expect these struggles to continue as they go up against Jaime Garcia.  He's won his last two starts while allowing one run in 14 innings.  The first four hitters in Philadelphia's lineup - Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley and Howard - are a combined 6 for 39 (.154) against Garcia.  A.J. Burnett doesn't figure to have as much success against the Cardinals.  He's been rocked for 31 runs in his last five road starts against them spanning just 18 innings.  Home favorites of -150 or more that are seeking revenge for a loss as a home favorite of -150 or more, provided they have a win percentage of 51-54% and are playing a team with a win percentage of 46-49%, are 46-7 since 1997.  Teams fitting this system have won by 3.1 runs on average.  It is also worth noting that this system is a perfect 13-0 the last five seasons.  Take St. Louis.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -141

The Key: The Nationals are 5-0 in their last five home games, 7-0 in their last seven as a home favorite, 4-0 in their last four home games versus right-handed starters and 4-0 in their last four home games versus teams with a losing road record.  I expect all these trends to be extended this evening.  The Nats have the edge on the mound with Zimmermann, who has a 2.98 ERA on the season and a 0.36 ERA over his last three starts.  He also has an ERA of 2.98 in eight starts versus the Braves.  The Braves are 39-13 in his last 52 starts as a favorite.  They are 13-2 the last two seasons when he works on five or six days' rest and 4-0 in his last four starts on five days' rest.  The Braves are 0-4 in their last four games versus a right-handed starter and 1-14 the last two seasons in road games versus an NL starter with an ERA of 3.00 or better.  Take Washington.

7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Yankees -103

The Key: Buehrle is having a terrific season for Toronto, but he has had no success against the Yankees.  His clubs are 1-15 all-time in his starts against the Yankees, including 0-12 in his last 12, and he's compiled a 6.02 ERA in these starts.  In addition, the Blue Jays are 2-23 in their last 25 at Yankee Stadium, including 0-14 in their last 14.  Toronto is slumping at the plate, batting an AL-worst .218 since June 7.  Its struggles figure to continue against Whitley, who is 2-0 (5-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.41.  The Blue Jays have never faced him, and that gives him the edge.  Take New York.

7* MLB Mound Mismatch Game of the Week on Tigers -149

The Key: The Tigers have a significant edge on the mound with Scherzer.  They are 45-12 in his last 57 home starts, including 12-0 in his last 12.  They are also 6-0 in his last six starts in the second game of a series and 9-0 in his last nine starts versus Kansas City.  Ventura hasn't pitched on the road in over a month, and I expect that to cause him some problems.  Kansas City is 2-5 in his last seven starts and 1-4 in his last five division starts.  The Tigers are batting .292 at home this season, and I expect them to put some good wood on the ball tonight while Scherzer takes care of the rest.  Take the Tigers.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -135

The Key: The Royals have won their last seven, but I believe their streak comes to an end this evening.  They are 0-6 in their last six versus Detroit.  Verlander hasn't been at his best this season, but he's been pretty solid at home and will be lacking no confidence against a club he's owned.  He's 17-5 with an ERA of 2.88 in 31 starts versus the Royals.  The Tigers are 3-0 in his last three starts versus Kansas City with two of the wins coming this season.  Vargas has pitched well for the Royals, but he's had issues against Detroit.  He's 2-2 with an ERA of 5.01 in seven starts versus the Tigers.  The Royals are 0-2 this season in his starts versus Detroit.  The Tigers are 64-29 in Verlander's last 93 home starts, 7-2 in his last nine starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 8-1 in his last nine Monday starts.  The Royals are 1-4 in Vargas' last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Detroit also has the edge offensively.  It is batting .290 at home and .285 versus left-handed starters.  Kansas City is batting .263 on the road and .258 versus right-handed starters.  Take the Tigers.

7* MLB Run Line Rout of the Week on Giants -1.5 (+108)

The Key: After falling in the first two games of the series, the Giants will rise to the occasion this afternoon.  They are an impressive 60-23 in their last 83 games as a favorite of -201 or greater, 15-1 in their last 16 Sunday games and 6-1 in their last 7 games after losing the first two games of a series.  They also have a significant edge on the mound with Bumgarner, who has a 2.67 ERA on the season and a 1.23 ERA over his last three starts.  Colorado's Nicasio has a 5.70 ERA on the season and a 14.48 ERA over his last three starts.  The Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts in the third game of a series and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus the Rockies (these four victories have come by an average 2.8 runs).  The Rockies are 0-4 in Nicasio's 4 career road starts versus the Giants.  Take San Francisco on the run line.

7* MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Brewers -120

The Key: The Brewers fell 6-5 yesterday, but they are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a loss, and the Reds are 2-14 in their last 16 games following a 1-run victory over a division opponent.  Milwaukee's Gallardo is coming off an absolute gem against Pittsburgh, and I believe he builds on that here.  The Brewers are 42-17 in his last 59 starts as a favorite.  They are also 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus the Reds. Latos is making his first big-league start of the season, and I expect to see some rust.  Latos has a 5.95 ERA in his last three starts against the Brewers, and his clubs are 0-4 all-time in his starts at Miller Park.  The Reds have struggled on the road where they are batting .238 and averaging 3.4 runs per game.  Take the Brew Crew.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Marlins -116

The Key: The Marlins are 26-11 in their last 37 at home, including 10-2 this season when playing a team with a losing record.  The Fish have crushed left-handed starting pitching.  They are batting .296 and averaging 5.8 runs per game off lefty starters this season.  They are 13-4 in their last 17 games versus lefty starters.  Eovaldi has pitched well, especially at home where he has a 2.49 ERA.  His clubs are 7-2 in his last nine home starts.  Miami's bullpen has been holding up on its end of the bargain as well, and that's significant because the Marlins are 6-0 this season when the bullpen ERA is under 3.00 over the last 10 games.  The Pirates are a very poor 67-149 in their last 216 road games versus clubs with a home winning percentage above .600.  The Pirates are 0-4 in Locke's last four starts, 0-5 in his last five starts versus a team with a winning record and 6-13 in his last 19 road starts.  Stanton bats a team-high .354 against lefty starters, and he's 3 for 5 with a homer against Locke.  Locke is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA in three starts versus the Marlins, allowing them to hit .338.  The Pirates are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Miami.  Take the Marlins.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -143

The Key: Following losses in each of the first three games of this series, I expect the Giants to bear down and salvage a game.  The Giants are 5-0 in their last five games after losing the first three games of a series, 8-0 in their last eight Game 4s of a series and 4-0 in their last four Thursday games.  San Francisco is in excellent hands with Hudson on the hill.  His clubs are a perfect 15-0 in his home starts since the beginning of last season and have won them by an average of 2.9 runs.  Hudson has dominated Washington throughout his career (16-5 lifetime with a 2.45 ERA in 29 starts), and he's 3-0 on the money line with an ERA of 0.84 in his last three starts against the Nationals.  Take San Francisco.

7* National League Game of the Month on Giants -125

The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, the Giants will take the field with extra focus and motivation.  The Giants are 6-0 in their last six games after losing the first two games of a series.  Washington's Roark hasn't had his best stuff on the road where he has an ERA of 4.42.  The Nationals are 0-4 in Roark's last four starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in his last four starts versus teams with a winning record.  The Giants are 3-0 in Cain's last three starts, and he has a rock solid 2.91 ERA at home on the season.  Also, San Francisco is 5-0 in his last five home starts versus the Nationals.  He held them to two earned runs or less in four of these starts.  Take San Francisco.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -148

The Key: The Cubs are a horrendous 38-83 in their last 121 road games versus teams with a winning home record, and I expect this trend to continue.  Pittsburgh is 5-0 in its last five series openers, and it has won eight of its last 10 home games versus the Cubs.  Chicago's Edwin Jackson has a 4.59 ERA on the season, a 6.12 ERA on the road and a 6.91 ERA over his last three starts.  The Cubs are 5-17 in Jackson's last 22 starts, 1-7 in his last eight road starts, 0-4 in his last four series-opening starts, 0-6 in his last six starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-8 in his last eight starts on regular rest (4 days).  The Cubs are also 0-2 this season in his starts versus the Pirates.  Pittsburgh's Charlie Morton has an ERA of 3.31 on the season, a 2.39 ERA at home and a 2.81 ERA over his last three starts.  The Pirates are 3-0 in his last three starts versus the Cubs.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Reds -138

The Key: The Reds are on a 7-0 run in Simon's starts versus clubs with a losing record.  They are on a 9-0 run in his starts versus NL clubs with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse, a 9-0 run in his starts versus NL clubs with a batting average of .255 or worse and a 6-0 run versus teams that are getting outscored by an average of 0.5 runs or more per game on the season.  He has a rock solid 3.03 ERA on the season and has been nearly unhittable in the daylight, when he has a 1.96 ERA.  Hernandez has a 4.18 ERA in his starts and an ugly 5.76 ERA in his road starts.  The Phillies are 0-5 in their last five games following a win and 0-6 in their last six after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.  Look for the Reds to win this one comfortably as they get to Hernandez and Simon takes care of the rest.

7* MLB Run Line Rout of the Week on Rangers -1.5 (+127)

The Key: The Indians were a perfect 6-0 during their recent homestand, but the road doesn't figure to treat them as well.  They are a major league-worst 9-19 on the road, including 0-4 in their last four away from Cleveland.  Their road struggles should continue with Texas giving the ball to Darvish, who has a 1.66 ERA over his last five starts.  The Rangers are 11-2 in Darvish's last 13 starts and 7-0 in his last seven starts on regular rest (4 days).  These 11 victories have come by an average of 4.1 runs.  The seven wins of the 7-0 run have come by 3.1 runs on average.  Cleveland's Bauer has had a rough go on the road.  The Indians are 1-3 in his last four road starts, and he's allowed four runs or more three times during this stretch.  Each of these three defeats came by two runs or more.  Cleveland was lucky to get the one victory during this span since Bauer gave up five runs in 2-3 innings in that start.  Take Texas on the run line.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockies -122

The Key: The Rockies are due to bust out here against Bronson Arroyo, who has a 4.95 ERA over his last three starts.  He was rocked for 6 runs the last time he faced the Rockies and has been touched for at least 6 runs in three of his last five starts against them.  Nicasio has held the D-backs to two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts against them.  The Rockies are 5-1 in Nicasio's last six home starts, 7-1 in his last eight starts following a team loss in their previous game and 6-0 in his last six starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game.  Nicasio has a 3.60 ERA in six home starts, including a 2.50 ERA over his last three.  Take Colorado.

7* MLB Mound Mismatch Game of the Year on Rockies -155

The Key: Colorado has the edge on the mound with Jorge De La Rosa, who is 6-0 with an ERA of 1.80 over his last seven starts.  The only time he didn't earn a victory during this stretch was when rain suspended his outing against San Francisco on May 22.  The Rockies have lost their last four, but they are giving the ball to the right guy.  They are 18-0 the last two seasons in De La Rosa's starts following a team loss.  They are also 10-0 during this span in his starts following two or more consecutive team defeats.  De La Rosa has never lost to the D-backs at Coors Field.  The Rockies are 10-0 in his home starts against them, during which he has posted a 1.79 ERA.  Arizona's Chase Anderson is making his first start at flighty Coors.  Pitchers without much experience there tend to struggle.  He'll have a rough time with a lineup that is batting .342 and averaging 7.0 runs per game at home.  Take the Rockies.

7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -147

The Key: The Cardinals are an impressive 73-28 the last three seasons in home games against teams that have a losing record.  The Cards have dropped five of seven and are struggling at the plate, but the numbers suggest that now's the time to back them.  Consider that St. Louis is 14-1 the last three seasons in home games following a stretch where it has lost five or six of its last seven games.  It is also 17-2 in home games the last three seasons after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span.  The Cardinals are 8-1 in Miller's last nine home starts versus a team with a losing record and 6-0 in his last six starts following a team loss in their previous game.  The Royals are 6-15 in Duffy's last 21 starts versus a team with a winning record.  They are also just 1-6 in their last seven versus St. Louis.

7* Interleague Run Line Rout of the Year on White Sox -1.5

The Key: The White Sox are 6-0 in their last six games after losing the first two games of a series and have won these by an average of 4.2 runs.  They are also 9-2 this season when playing with double revenge, winning by an average of 2.5 run in these contests.  Chris Sale is 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA on the season and has a 0.56 ERA over his last three starts.  He gives the Sox a significant advantage considering San Diego's Eric Stults is 0-4 with a 5.04 ERA on the road.  You want to fade road underdogs priced at +150 or more following a win by two runs or less when they are matched up against an opponent that has scored three runs or fewer in four straight games.  Doing so has produced a 44-6 mark since 1997.  Teams fitting this scenario have lost by an average of 2.9 runs.  The White Sox are batting .274 and averaging 5.2 runs per game against lefty starters.  They should get to Stults and Sale should take care of the rest.

7* NL Non-Division Game of the Year on Dodgers -140

The Key: Despite winning the first two games of this series, the Pirates are still only 7-15 in their last 22 road games.  They are 5-13 in their last 18 games as a road underdog, 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 105-229 in their last 334 road games versus a team with a winning record.  The Pirates are also 3-9 in their last 12 Game 3s of a series.  It is also worth noting that Pittsburgh is 16-35 in road games following two or more consecutive wins under manager Hurdle.  The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first two games of a series, and I love them here behind Ryu.  The Dodgers are 7-0 in the southpaw's last 7 starts versus the NL Central and 15-3 in his last 18 starts versus a team with a losing record.  Pittsburgh is batting a dismal .210 versus lefty starters this season.  LA has a much better chance of getting to Cumpton as it is batting .265 versus right-handed starters.  The Pirates are only 27-67 in the last 94 meetings.  Take the Dodgers.

7* AL Game of the Month on Royals -131

The Key: The Royals go back on the road for six games following this series so they will really go after the last two games of this three-game set.  The Astros won Game 1 handily, but they are yet to prove they can be trusted on the road.  They are just 68-168 in their last 236 road games.  They are even 30-77 in their last 107 road games versus a team with a losing record and 27-77 in their last 104 road games versus a team with a winning home record.  The Astros are also 30-74 in their last 104 in the second game of a series.  Houston is 0-4 in scheduled starter McHugh's last four starts, during which he's compiled a 5.16 ERA.  The Royals are 21-7 in Guthrie's last 28 home starts, 11-4 in his last 15 starts as a home favorite, 4-0 in his last four starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last four starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  His clubs are 4-1 all-time in his starts against Houston.  Take Kansas City.

7* MLB Game of the Week on Marlins -108

The Key: The Marlins are showing tremendous value at this price at home where they are 23-6 in their last 29.  The Brewers are 1-5 in their last six as injuries to key players are taking a toll.  There's no doubt Miami has the edge on the mound with Koehler, who has a 2.25 ERA on the season and a 1.93 ERA over his last three starts.  The Marlins are 5-0 in his last five at home where he has a 0.64 ERA this season.  It is also to Koehler's advantage that he hasn't faced the Brewers because they won't be at all familiar with his stuff.  The Marlins are 9-1 in their last 10 home games versus a right-handed starter, and I like their chances of getting to Estrada, who has a 4.76 ERA over his last three starts and a 7.43 ERA in three career starts against Miami.  Take the Marlins.