Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-11-18 | Dream v. Mystics -8 | Top | 106-89 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
**Note: 11:30 AM ET Start** This is a play on the WASHINGTON MYSTICS for our WNBA Wednesday Terminator. Washington is back home following a 1-1 west coast swing and it still holds a two-game lead in the Eastern Conference over Connecticut. While going just 4-6 against the Western Conference, the Mystics have dominated within their own conference, going 8-1 against the east. They had a chance to pull off the upset against the Storm as Washington led 56-48 in the third quarter before the Storm went on a 27-10 run over the final seven minutes to pull away. The Mystics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. Atlanta is coming off an upset win over Phoenix on Sunday and while it has performed well against the top teams in the league, this is a bad spot. The Dream are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games off a home win while going 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games after allowing 70 points or more in three straight games. They also fall into a negative situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are averaging between 72 and 76 ppg going up against teams allowing 76 or more ppg, after scoring 70 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1997. 10* (324) Washington Mystics |
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07-10-18 | Mercury +2 v. Wings | Top | 72-101 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHOENIX MERCURY for our WNBA Tuesday Terminator. Phoenix is coming off a loss at Atlanta on Sunday and now sits a game behind Seattle in the Western Conference. The Mercury have the second best record in the league which come playoff time is huge considering the top two teams are rewarded with a double bye, so these winnable games are important going forward. Phoenix has the best road record in the WNBA at 9-3 and the Mercury have covered eight of their last 10 road games while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning straight up record. Dallas has won three straight games following a road win at New York on Sunday and its 12-6 ATS record is the most profitable in the league. That is forcing the Wings to be the favorite here despite being three games behind Phoenix in the standings. Two of those ATS losses have come against the Mercury and this has been a horrible spot for Dallas which is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a home favorite. Additionally, the Wings fall into a negative league-wide situation where we play against favorites revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite going up against that opponent coming off a road loss. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (315) Phoenix Mercury |
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07-08-18 | Wings v. Liberty +4 | Top | 97-87 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK LIBERTY for our WNBA Sunday Terminator. It has been a disaster for the Liberty this season as they came in with high expectations in competing for the WNBA Championship and now finds themselves with the second worst record in the league. Off to their worst start since 2006, the Liberty would like to find some rhythm and secondary scoring. New York is 1-7 in its last eight games and is averaging 75.3 ppg over this stretch. During this skid, six of the losses have come by double digits and the Liberty have been held under 80 points six times. Dallas meanwhile has won two straight games and it is 9-8 on the season. The Wings have won six of their last 11 games and while a win over Los Angeles was solid, the other wins have come against Indiana twice, Las Vegas twice and Chicago, all of which are at least four games under .500. While New York is part of this group as far as records go, Dallas is overpriced on the road where it is only 3-5 on the season. The Wings are just 2-6 following a win and this is the first time they have hit the road since June 27th and the first time they have come east since June 19th. With an upcoming stretch of games with Phoenix, Los Angeles and Seattle on deck, looking past the Liberty is a distinct possibility. 10* (310) New York Liberty |
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07-07-18 | Mystics v. Sparks -7 | Top | 83-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES SPARKS for our WNBA Game of the Week. The Sparks have hit a bit of a wall as they have lost four of their last five games after an 11-3 start to the season. Three of those losses were on the road however and the lone home loss came against Connecticut by just one point after being held to only eight first quarter points. Los Angeles lost in Minnesota on Thursday as the Lynx were playing with double-revenge stemming from two earlier regular season losses and now it is time for the Sparks to get rolling once again. Washington is coming off a win over New York on Thursday which was its fifth win in its last six games with four of those coming at home. This is the first time the Mystics have had to travel since June 22nd and only the third time since June 3rd as they have only had to make trips to Connecticut and Chicago. Washington is 8-1 against the Eastern Conference but just 3-5 against teams from the Western Conference while failing to cover four straight games against the west. Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, winning those games by over 15 ppg and it is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games off a road loss, winning those by 13.3 ppg. Additionally, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having lost four or five of their last six games going up against an opponent after having won three of their last four games. This situation is 52-16 ATS (76.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (302) Los Angeles Sparks |
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07-07-18 | Edmonton v. Toronto +3 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO ARGONAUTS for our CFL Saturday Enforcer. Toronto is off to a 0-2 start and will be facing its third team from the West Division to open the season. Making matters worse, the Argonauts lost quarterback Ricky Ray for the season last week due to a neck injury, so James Franklin will be making his first start. Franklin spent his first three CFL seasons backing up Eskimos quarterback Mike Reilly, the CFL most outstanding player last year. Franklin appeared in 12 games with the Eskimos, going 2-1 as a starter. Two weeks ago, he completed eight of 13 passes for 65 yards and ran three times for 14 yards, his 10-yard TD run accounting for lone Toronto touchdown of the game. While Edmonton is a very good team, Franklin does have the edge of knowing the Eskimos personnel and having an additional week to prepare. Edmonton is 2-1 on the season and coming off an impressive win over British Columbia last week. Reilly threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns and C.J Gable had an outstanding game, rushing for 126 yards and chipping in a touchdown of his own. The Toronto defense was lit up for 564 yards against the Stampeders but like the offense, the stop unit has an extra week to get ready. The recent results along with the Ray injury is giving value to the Argonauts in what is a great contrarian spot. Here, we play against favorites coming off a win over a division rival, in the first month of the season. This situation is 58-22 ATS (72.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (356) Toronto Argonauts |
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07-06-18 | Ottawa -7.5 v. Montreal | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the OTTAWA REDBLACKS for our CFL Game of the Week. Montreal came through for us last week as it upset the Roughriders on the road as a double-digit underdog, but we go against them in this follow up game where it will not be sneaking up on Ottawa. The Alouettes snapped a 13-game losing streak, both straight up and against the number, going back to last season and while it can be argued that they finally have some positive momentum, this is not a good team. Last week, they were able to capitalize on four Saskatchewan turnovers and their lone touchdown came on a trick play. Despite the victory, Montreal will be going with a new starting quarterback as Jeff Matthews will be making his first start after it had 13 two-and-outs against Saskatchewan, the most by a team in almost five years. The RedBlacks are coming off a loss last week in Calgary as the offense was able to put up just 299 yards against the stout Stampeders defense. Things will be a lot easier this week facing the third worst defense in the league as quarterback Trevor Harris has a chance to bounce back following a poor performance against Calgary. In the two meetings he played against Montreal last season, he threw for 376 and 343 yards. Ottawa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread while going 8-0 ATS in its last eight road divisional games. Meanwhile, Montreal is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after gaining 300 or less total ypg over their last 3 games. 10* (353) Ottawa RedBlacks |
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07-06-18 | Storm v. Dream +5 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA DREAM for our WNBA Friday Terminator. Seattle has won three straight games and sits a half-game behind Phoenix in the Western Conference. Only two and a half games separate first and fourth place in the conference, so it is a tight bunch and while we do feel Seattle is the better team in this matchup, the Storm are overpriced. Going back further, the Storm have won seven of their last nine games and the one loss prior to this streak came at home against Atlanta as 7.5-point favorites and now they are favored by just 2.5 points less on the road. Atlanta won its most recent game against Indiana on Sunday to move back to .500 on the season. The Dream currently hold down the eighth and final playoff spot in the WNBA and they have withstood a rough part of the schedule as eight of their last 10 games have come on the road. They have won three straight games at home and are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games as underdogs of 3.5 to 6 points and this season, they are 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, Seattle is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games coming off a road win while going 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after a win by 15 points or more. 10* (612) Atlanta Dream |
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07-05-18 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan +7 | Top | 13-18 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. We have ridden Hamilton the last two weeks as it coasted to two easy victories and now faces its fourth straight opponent from the West Division prior to its bye week. The Tiger-Cats have been dominant on offense as they lead the CFL with 469.3 ypg but they will be tested here against the No. 2 ranked defense in the league. This is the first time since 2009 that Hamilton has started a season 2-1 and it has not won three straight games since August of 2015, going 0-4 in its last four games following consecutive victories since then. Additionally, the Tiger-Cats are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win. We played against the Roughriders last week as they lost at home against Montreal as 10.5-point favorites and now they come in as significant underdogs, making this a 17-point shift in the line which is simply too big in a one week span. The loss of quarterback Zach Collaros for six weeks due to a concussion is big and it showed last week as Brandon Bridge was held to 111 yards and two interceptions before being replaced by David Watford, who went 10-of-22 for 108 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the loss. Bridge played well prior to that and will be back in to start tonight. Favorites are 8-4 ATS through the first three weeks but the underdog situation early in the season still thrives, especially at home, as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season. This situation is 32-14 ATS (69.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (352) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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07-05-18 | Sparks v. Lynx -3.5 | Top | 72-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on he MINNESOTA LYNX for our WNBA Thursday Terminator. We played against Minnesota in its last game which was targeted as a lookahead spot and it clearly turned into that as the Lynx lost at home against Indiana which came into that game with just one victory. They shot just 32.8 percent from the floor including 28.6 percent from long range and we can draw that up as an aberration for the reigning world champions that came into Tuesday having won seven straight games. Minnesota won the WNBA title last year in five games over Los Angeles, but the Sparks have had its number so far this season by winning the first two meetings which puts the Lynx into a strong double-revenge situation. The Sparks are also coming off a loss as they fell to Connecticut on Tuesday at home by a point where they are 8-2 but just 4-4 on the road and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning straight up record. Minnesota falls into a favorable situation where we play on favorites that are revenging two straight losses where opponent scored 75 or more points, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (604) Minnesota Lynx |
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07-03-18 | Fever +16 v. Lynx | Top | 71-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANA FEVER for our WNBA Tuesday Terminator. This is an ugly play with the worst team in the league going up against the best team in the WNBA that is finally starting to peak. Indiana has just one win on the season and is riding a six-game losing streak, but the situation is in its favor tonight, especially with a line this big. The Fever have covered four of six games this season when getting double-digits and they are 5-2 ATS on the road and even though they are in the midst of a losing streak, they have been competitive. Minnesota has reeled off seven consecutive victories since a 3-6 start to the season. The Lynx have covered five of these games but failed to cover the lone game as a double-digit favorite and they are 0-4 ATS on the season as favorites of more than seven points. There is also a lookahead spot here as Minnesota hosts Los Angeles on Thursday in what is a double-revenge spot. Indiana falls into a solid situation where we play on road underdogs of 10 or more points after four or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (313) Indiana Fever |
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07-01-18 | Aces v. Sparks -10.5 | Top | 71-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES SPARKS for our WNBA Sunday Terminator. Los Angeles is coming off a pair of losses on the road including a 16-point loss in Las Vegas on Friday. The Situation was not ideal as the Sparks were coming off a game in Seattle on Thursday night and the schedule played right into the Aces' hands as they wanted to push the ball against a tired team and that is exactly what they did. Los Angeles heads back home where it is 7-1 this season and it has not lost three straight games since September of 2016. The Sparks are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games coming off a road loss over the last three seasons. The Aces have been playing well after a 1-7 start and their win over the Sparks was by far their best of the season. While the spot was good for them on Friday, it goes the other way today as Las Vegas is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games coming off a conference win as an underdog of six or more points. Here, we play on favorites after a loss by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after a combined score of 160 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 1997. 10* (306) Los Angeles Sparks |
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06-30-18 | Montreal +10.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the MONTREAL ALOUETTES for our CFL Saturday Enforcer. The favorites have gone 3-0 ATS this week after a 3-1 ATS performance last week which is a surprise in this league and we will buck that trend tonight by going as contrarian as you can get with a Montreal team that has not won a game since Week Eight of last season and is currently on a 0-13 ATS run since then. Last week was not ideal for the Montreal home opener as it was blasted 56-10 against Winnipeg. It was a setback for the revamped Montreal defense, which added high-profile free agents in the off-season and has defensive guru Rich Stubler as the new coordinator. The unit should be better this week with a couple games behind then plus the fact they welcome back defensive end John Bowman. Saskatchewan opened its season with a win at home against the Argonauts, extracting some revenge, but are coming off a humbling 40-17 defeat last week at Ottawa. The big story here is that Roughriders quarterback Zach Collaros sustained a concussion last week and it out for the next six games. Brandon Bridge came into the game last week in relief and he completed just 13 of 22 for 145 yards and was intercepted once. It does not help that Bridge will be without the top receiving target as although he was the leading receiver with 1,043 yards last season, Duron Carter will continue playing boundary cornerback due to an injury. The Alouettes fall into a positive situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 86-43 (66.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (377) Montreal Alouettes |
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06-29-18 | Sky v. Liberty -4 | Top | 103-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK LIBERTY for our WNBA Friday Terminator. We won with New York last night as it was able to stay within the inflated number, losing on a last second three-point shot by Washington. That was a disheartening loss but sitting at 4-10, the Liberty have to let that go and take care of business on their home floor with seven of their next 11 games taking place on the road. They are 3-5 at home with losses coming against defending WNBA Champion Minnesota, Connecticut which is 9-6 and two losses against Phoenix which is 11-5. Playing back-to-back has not been an issue in the past as New York is 8-2 in its last 10 games playing with no rest. Chicago is coming off a pair of home wins against Phoenix and Atlanta following a six-game losing skid. The Sky have been a decent team at home, but they have struggled to a 1-5 record on the road with the lone victory coming in their season opener against 1-14 Indiana. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games while going 15-27 ATS in their last 42 games after allowing 80 points or more in two straight games. New York has a positive situation on its side as we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a straight up loss as a favorite going up against an opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (608) New York Liberty |
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06-29-18 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton -3.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAMILTON TIGER-CATS for our CFL Game of the Week. We won with Hamilton last week as it defeated Edmonton to pick up its first win of the season after losing its opener in Calgary. This is the home opener for the Tiger-Cats which have spent the last two weeks in Alberta to avoid extra travel and as mentioned last week, they have the potential to be a contender in the East Division. The Tiger-Cats missed the playoffs last season after a 0-8 start, but they finished strong by going 6-4 over their last 10 games after June Jones was hired as head coach to take over for Kent Austin. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli has been exceptional this season, throwing for 676 yards and he is becoming one of the top quarterbacks in the league. Last week, the Tiger-Cats had a pair of 100 yard receivers in the win, as Brandon Banks (117 yards) and Luke Tasker (103 yards) both played major roles. Winnipeg is also coming off a victory last week as it rolled past Montreal 56-10 but the Alouettes are by far the worst team in the CFL. Rookie quarterback Chris Streveler was 22-of-28 for 246 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for a team-high 98 yards and a touchdown. He has been impressive in his first two starts but he will facing a much bigger test on Friday against a tougher Hamilton defense. The Blue Bombers have not been good in a spot like this as they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game while going 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after outrushing their last opponent by 175 or more yards. 10* (374) Hamilton Tiger-Cats |
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06-28-18 | Liberty +8 v. Mystics | Top | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK LIBERTY for our WNBA Thursday Terminator. This is the ultimate contrarian play as we have two teams going in opposite directions, but the line is taking that into account as we are getting big value with New York. It has been a struggle for the Liberty on both sides of the ball as of late for a team that was once again expected to contend in the Eastern Conference. New York has lost three straight games, both straight up and against the number, and it has failed to hit the 70-point mark in their past two contests. Additionally, the Liberty have been victimized by the three-pointer, allowing 20 makes from deep at a 51 percent clip over the past two games. Washington meanwhile has won three straight games, covering all three as well, and it has taken over first place in the Eastern Conference over a struggling Connecticut team that has gone 2-5 over its last seven games. New York falls into two contrarian situations that tie into each other. First, we play on road underdogs after three or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. This situation is 32-11 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (601) New York Liberty |
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06-27-18 | Wings -1.5 v. Aces | Top | 97-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS WINGS for our WNBA Wednesday Terminator. Dallas is coming off a loss last night in Los Angeles by just four points as it blew a big chance for a quality win, giving up a four-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. It was still an impressive performance and even with Skylar Diggins-Smith having an off night on Tuesday as she scored just 12 points on 4-18 shooting. The Wings have lost two straight games to fall a game under .500 but they head into tonight being a perfect 6-0 ATS after one or more consecutive losses this season. Las Vegas opened the season 1-7 but has been playing a lot better by winning four of its last seven games. The Aces have won just twice at home this season however and they have struggled within the conference by going 1-6 against Western Conference teams. While there may be concern about the back-to-back situation for Dallas, the short travel and matchup advantages negate that. The Wings dominated the offensive glass last night 13-5 and should do so again tonight. In the first meeting against Las Vegas, they had an 11-1 edge on the offensive boards and won that game by 10 points despite going 1-15 from long range. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two straight games where both teams scored 70 points or more going up against an opponent after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 54-22 ATS (71.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (323) Dallas Wings |
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06-26-18 | Sun v. Mystics -2.5 | Top | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON MYSTICS for our WNBA Tuesday Terminator. Connecticut snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over 1-13 Indiana on Sunday, but it was easy as the Sun needed a big fourth quarter to pull away. This came after a 7-1 start to the season and the recent struggles have coincided with the absence of forward Alyssa Thomas who averages 12 ppg and leads the team with 9.9 rpg. Washington is coming off a home-and-home sweep over Chicago following a 1-5 stretch where injuries and illnesses were the stories. The Mystics are back to full strength, most notably Elena Delle Donne who has made a big difference in this series. The Sun routed the Mystics, who were without their leading scorer, 88-64 in Washington on June 3. Ten days later Delle Donne was back and scored a game-high 36 points in a 95-91 Mystics road win. This is the first game of a four-game homestand for Washington which can take advantage and take over first place in the Eastern Conference. Here, we play against road underdogs after having lost two of their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (314) Washington Mystics |
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06-23-18 | Calgary v. Toronto +3.5 | Top | 41-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO ARGONAUTS for our CFL Game of the Week. Week Two finds the rematch of the Grey Cup Final from last season and Calgary will be out for revenge but playing this game on the road is a different story. Calgary got away with one last week as Hamilton was trailing by a touchdown with less than two minutes remaining in the game and the Tiger-Cats were on the march to at least tie the game when Calgary defensive back Brandon Smith intercepted Jeremiah Masoli and the Stampeders added on a long touchdown run to cement the cover. The Stampeders were inefficient on offense as on the first five trips into the redzone, the Stampeders generated just four field goals and an interception. Toronto lost at Saskatchewan in its opener on the road, but it is back home where it went 7-3 last season and it looking to show that last season was no fluke. Argonauts quarterback Ricky Ray did not play in the preseason and it looked like he was a little behind game speed until the second half against Saskatchewan. That lack of offense is giving Toronto some value here with Calgary once again being a public favorite. Toronto falls into a couple solid situations. First, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that averaged 385 or more total ypg the previous season. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1996. Additionally, underdogs of three or more points coming off a loss are 57-30-3 ATS (65.5 percent) since 2005. 10* (368) Toronto Argonauts |
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06-22-18 | Hamilton +6.5 v. Edmonton | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAMILTON TIGER-CATS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. Edmonton comes in at 1-0 while Hamilton is 0-1 but those records could easily be reversed heading into this game. Trailing by a touchdown with less than two minutes remaining in the game, the Tiger-Cats were on the march to at least tie the game when Calgary defensive back Brandon Smith intercepted Jeremiah Masoli and the Stampeders added on a long touchdown run to cement the cover. In the other game, Eskimos quarterback Mike Reilly led his team to 11 points in the final 1:22 of the fourth quarter to charge an Edmonton comeback. Both of those results are inflating a line that should not be this big, so we are getting value based on recency bias and skewed Week One results. While Hamilton lost last week against arguably the best team in the league in Calgary, it proved it can play with the big boys and as mentioned last week, this is going to be a surprise team that could easily take down the East Division. The Tiger-Cats missed the playoffs last season after a 0-8 start, but they finished strong by going 6-4 over their last 10 games after June Jones was hired as head coach to take over for Kent Austin. Masoli was exceptional last week, going 25-36 for 344 yards and that late pick was his only flaw. The Eskimos are expected to make a big run this season but because that is a publicized theory, they are going to be overpriced throughout the season and that is the case here. The early season underdog situation was just 2-2 last week but it is still in play as is the situation where we play against teams coming off a divisional win that had a winning record last season, playing a team that had a losing season. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (365) Hamilton Tiger-Cats |
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06-22-18 | Mystics v. Sky +5 | Top | 93-77 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO SKY for our WNBA Friday Terminator. This is the second game of a home-and-home set between Washington and Chicago with the Mystics winning the first game by 28 points on Tuesday. It was the fifth straight win and cover by Washington in this series, four of those coming by at least 15 points, which could be playing a role in this line. What we do know is that the number is skewed based on the most recent game as the Mystics covered the 9.5-point spread with ease but are now seeing just a 3.5-point adjustment despite the venue change. They are 3-5 over their last eight games following a 4-0 start and have lost their last three games following a win and by an average of 9.0 ppg. Additionally, Washington is just 9-18 ATS in its last 27 games coming off a double-digit conference win. It has been a rough run for Chicago as it has lost five straight games after a 3-3 start to the season, but the schedule has been brutal with four of those games coming on the road and the lone home game coming against 9-2 Los Angeles. Speaking of that game, the Sky were getting 8.5 points from the Sparks and are getting only 2.5 points less here and there is no way that Washington is just 2.5 points worse than Los Angeles. Chicago has failed to cover a home game against teams with a winning record however, those games were against the respective conference leaders. 10* (616) Chicago Sky |
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06-21-18 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa -1.5 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the OTTAWA REDBLACKS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. Ottawa was the lone team to have last week off and it should pay dividends in Week Two as it hosts Saskatchewan for the second time in as many home games. The last time the RedBlacks played a meaningful game was back on November 12 when they hosted Saskatchewan in the Divisional Semifinals and were upset by 11 points, cutting short their chances of defending their Grey Cup championship from 2016. Last year was a strange season for Ottawa as it clearly had the roster to contend for a championship but opened the campaign 0-4 and 1-7 before making a late run to get into the postseason and it can ill afford to repeat that start. We won with Saskatchewan last Friday as it defeated Toronto at home by jumping ahead 14-1 and was able to hold on. Zach Collaros, who was brought in from Hamilton, was effective in the victory but now comes his first road start and definitely not the spot that he would prefer. Ottawa finished in second place in the East Division after claiming the top spot in 2015 and 2016 so it can be considered the class of the division despite how weak the overall division looks. This is a chance to make some noise as a win on Thursday could give the RedBlacks an early spot atop of the division, as Toronto, Hamilton and Montreal all lost against West Division opponents last week. The difference here is that all of those games for the Eastern teams were on the road so the home team with motivation should put an end to that. 10* (362) Ottawa RedBlacks |
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06-19-18 | Wings v. Lynx -6.5 | Top | 83-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA LYNX for our WNBA Tuesday Terminator. It has been a tough start to the season for the reigning WNBA Champions as Minnesota is off to a 4-6 start, but a turnaround is inevitable. The Lynx are coming off a win over New York on Saturday as they won by 14 points as seven-point favorites and are now looking to win consecutive games for the first time in nearly a month. The Lynx have not opened this badly since a 2-9 start in 2010, the first season in Minnesota for head coach Cheryl Reeve, Lindsay Whalen and Rebekkah Brunson, and the year before Maya Moore arrived. We won with Dallas in its last game as it was able to pull away and cover against Las Vegas to move back over .500 for the season. The Wings are just 2-3 on the road with one of those wins coming at 1-10 Indiana and this is a matchup they have struggled with as they have lost nine straight meetings against Minnesota. Dallas was able to cover the first meeting this season however, it was getting 13 points, so the line tonight has been cut in half. Minnesota falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having lost five or six of their last seven games going up against an opponent after having won three of their last four games. This situation is 33-7 ATS (82.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (606) Minnesota Lynx |
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06-17-18 | Sparks v. Sky +10.5 | Top | 81-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO SKY for our WNBA Sunday Terminator. Los Angeles possesses the best record in the WNBA based on percentages, so it is naturally a big road favorite in the game today against what is considered one of the worst teams in the league. The Sparks are coming off a road win over Washington on Friday to make it three straight wins, but they are overpriced based on a recent matchup. This play sets up very similar to the Indiana play from last night based on the revenge factor and the enormous line vale based on venue change. Chicago was getting 13.5 points on the road and a venue shift should make it roughly a six-point swing and that is not the case here as we are seeing just a 3.5-point swing based on the opening line which is the same as Saturday with the Fever. The Sky are 3-6 on the season and are coming off three straight double-digit losses which all came on the road and they have been much better at home where they sit at 2-2. They have been off since Tuesday and going back, the Sky are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games playing on three or more days rest. Additionally, we play on underdogs that are getting outscored by their opponents by six or more ppg, after a combined score of 165 points or more. This situation is 46-15 ATS (75.4 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (316) Chicago Sky |
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06-16-18 | Hamilton +8 v. Calgary | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAMILTON TIGER-CATS for our CFL Game of the Week. There are a couple teams in the CFL that could make surprising runs and at the top of the list is Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats missed the playoffs last season after a 0-8 start, but they finished strong by going 6-4 over their last 10 games after June Jones was hired as head coach to take over for Kent Austin. Jones has had a full off-season and training camp to implement his system and culture and hire his preferred staff, like new defensive coordinator and former NFL head coach Jerry Glanville. The stage is set for Tiger-Cats quarterback Jeremiah Masoli to carry the team all the way to their first Grey Cup victory since 1999 but all of training camp Masoli has, once again, been forced to look over his shoulder and answer questions about depth charts instead of opponents. That of course is headlined by Johnny Manziel, but it gives Masoli added motivation to perform at a high level. Calgary will not be short of any motivation either after losing to Toronto last season for the Grey Cup. The Stampeders are the favorites yet again but of course with that comes overzealous expectations and inflated lines. This team is loaded and should be expected to win it all they face a tough opening challenge here based on what not to expect. During that 0-8 stretch last season, Hamilton lost here 60-1 and it surely has not forgotten. We have the same league-wide situation as the last two nights as we play on underdogs or pickems in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 29-5 ATS (85.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (375) Hamilton Tiger-Cats |
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06-16-18 | Dream v. Fever +5.5 | Top | 64-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANA FEVER for our WNBA Saturday Terminator. This is the second game of a home-and-home set between Atlanta and Indiana with the Dream taking the first meeting by five points on Thursday. It has been an awful start to the season for Indiana as it is the lone remaining team without a victory, sitting at a dreadful 0-10. If there is any consolation, the Fever have actually been playing competitively of late as over the last five games, two losses were in overtime while the other three were by 6, 3 and 5 points. We have value win the winless home team as well as Indiana was getting nine points on the road and a venue shift should make it roughly a six-point swing and that is not the case here as we are seeing just a 3.5-point swing based on the opening line. Atlanta is 6-4 on the season thanks to a 4-1 run over its last five games but this is not an ideal spot. After the non-cover in the first meeting two days ago, the Dream are now 1-9 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of .250 or worse while going 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games as road favorites between 3.5 and 6 points. 10* (310) Indiana Fever |
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06-15-18 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan +2.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 102 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. We won with the underdog Blue Bombers last night and we will be backing the underdog again tonight in a game with a lower pointspread but a higher chance of winning outright. Winnipeg was playing with revenge last night after getting bounced in the playoffs by Edmonton and tonight, Saskatchewan will be doing the same after losing to Toronto in the Divisional Finals. Toronto beat the Roughriders 25-21 on a last minute drive before going on to win the Grey Cup the following week against Calgary. The Argonauts won the Grey Cup despite posting a 9-9 record from the weak East Division and the victory over Calgary was fortunate. The game was played in snowy conditions and Toronto had two record touchdowns, a 100-yard passing score and a 109-yard fumble recovery for another touchdown which tied the game late. Saskatchewan has a quarterback battle between newcomer Zach Collaros, who was brought in from Hamilton, and Brandon Bridge, who took over for an ineffective Kevin Glenn in that game against Toronto and was effective enough to get a shot this season. Whichever quarterback it is will have one of the top receiving groups in the CFL in Duron Carter, Naaman Roosevelt and Bakari Grant. Toronto is the favorite because it is defending champions but there is no way a team from the east should be favored on the road against a team from the west. This has been a lucrative spot for the Roughriders as they are 20-4 ATS in their last 24 games as home underdogs of three or fewer points. Additionally, we have the same league-wide situation as last night as we play on underdogs or pickems in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 28-5 ATS (84.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (374) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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06-15-18 | Aces v. Wings -8.5 | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS WINGS for our WNBA Friday Terminator. We had a play on Dallas on Tuesday and it was a brutal loss as the Wings were outscored by 11 points in the fourth quarter to end up losing by three points. That loss snapped a two-game winning streak and dropped the Wings back to .500 on the season and this is an important bounce back game. Dallas has a tough slate on tap as in its next four games, it has Los Angeles twice, Minnesota and Seattle to close out the month. After a 1-7 start to the season, Las Vegas has won two straight games including a 15-point win as a 10-point underdog at New York on Wednesday. Projected to be the worst team in the league, the Aces started that way, so we cannot take this recent two-game stretch too serious they have actually covered four straight games, so they have ben more than competitive of late, but this is a tough spot. This is their fourth game in six days, all of which have come on the road, and that makes it even more difficult. This is the final game of the current four-game roadtrip which could mean looking forward to heading back home. Dallas is 3-0 ATS this season following a loss and it falls into a great situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after two or more consecutive wins and possessing a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (306) Dallas Wings |
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06-14-18 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg +7.5 | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. Many factors go into the CFL in the early stages of the season as rosters have been turned over and there is general optimism for all nine teams. That makes betting underdogs early in the season a lucrative endeavor and we will come right out of the gates with one of those. Winnipeg hosts Edmonton in a rematch of the Divisional Semifinals which saw the Eskimos win by a touchdown, so revenge is on the table right from the start. Things will be different for the Blue Bombers as both sides of the ball will have different looks. The defense gave up 50 offensive touchdowns in 2017, just one better than the two teams tied for last, Hamilton and Montreal. They tied for last in passing touchdowns allowed with 33 and they were second worst in yardage at nearly 400 per game. They made some big signing to shore that up. On offense starting quarterback Matt Nichols is out at least six weeks and 23-year-old rookie Chris Streveler will be making his first ever start. Not ideal of course but the good news is that the Bombers have the best running back in the league in Andrew Harris who can take some of the pressure off Streveler. The Eskimos are one of the frontrunners for the Grey Cup and the added motivation is that it is being held in Edmonton this season. Still, laying a number like this on the road is rather overaggressive and we can take advantage of the underdog. Plain and simple, we play on underdogs or pickems in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (372) Winnipeg Blue Bombers |
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06-13-18 | Mystics +10 v. Sun | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON MYSTICS for our WNBA Wednesday Terminator. Connecticut is off to a solid 7-1 start to the season, but it has benefitted from a fairly easy schedule as of those eight games, only three have come against winning teams and one of those is responsible for the lone defeat. The Sun have won two straight games following that loss to Atlanta and they embark on a five-game roadtrip starting Friday on the west coast. The Sun are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. Washington has lost three straight games and four of its last five after a 4-0 start to the season. The Mystics have recently dealt with injuries as Natasha Cloud missed three games with kidney stones while Elena Delle Donne missed four games because of an illness related to her Lyme Disease. Both have returned to action and even better is the fact there have been five days to rest since their last game. The Mystics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games while going 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after three or more consecutive losses which also puts them into a successful league-wide situation. We play on road teams after three or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins. This situation is 47-18 ATS (72.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (609) Washington Mystics |
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06-12-18 | Mercury v. Wings +1 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS WINGS for our Tuesday WNBA Terminator. Dallas heads back home in a great scheduling spot as it looks for some revenge from a loss in Phoenix in the season opener. The Wings defeated Indiana on the road on Friday to move to 4-3 overall and this marks only the third home game of the season. They are 2-0 in their first two games in Dallas which includes an impressive win against Seattle. The last game was a big one even though it was against one of the worst teams in the WNBA as it was a fight to get this victory because Indiana led for a large majority of the game except for the final minute of the fourth quarter. Phoenix has been a busy team this month as this is its sixth game in 12 days and it has been impressive in winning each of the first five games in June. The Mercury are a solid 4-1 on the road but this is not an ideal spot with fatigue setting in and the lookahead possibility as after Dallas, they are off until hosting league-leading Connecticut on Saturday followed by a game Sunday at Las Vegas. The Mercury are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against team with a winning straight up record while the Wings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (604) Dallas Wings |
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06-08-18 | Warriors -4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our Friday NBA Star Attraction. When the buzzer sounded on Wednesday, it was a sign that this series is all but over. Golden St. took a commanding 3-0 lead in this series and if not for a replay overturn and a mammoth Kevin Durant three-pointer, the Cavaliers could actually be leading this series. Instead, they will try to go out with some dignity although that will be tougher than it sounds as the Warriors are by far the superior team. Last season, they were in this same position with a 3-0 lead and Cleveland ended up winning Game Four in what amounted to a "Gentleman's Sweep" but things are a lot different this season. Cleveland does not have Kyrie Irving, who scored 40 points, and the roster is one that is not capable of keeping up for an entire series with the Warriors. Golden St. pulled away late in Game Three to preserve the win and cover and this was with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson going a combined 7-27 from the floor and scoring just 21 points. The rest of the team shot 64.8 percent from the floor. This is one of those games that the whole team comes in clicking which spells bad news for a deflated Cleveland team. The Cavaliers are just 5-19 ATS in their last 24 games coming off a home loss and this spot could be the worst of the bunch. 10* (507) Golden St. Warriors |
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06-08-18 | Dream v. Aces +5.5 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
**3:00 PM ET Start** This is a play on the LAS VEGAS ACES for our WNBA Terminator. Las Vegas picked up its first franchise win a week ago as it defeated Washington at home. That was just the second home game for the Aces and the first one was a solid effort against Seattle where they lost by seven points against an excellent Storm team. They are coming off a loss against Chicago on the road and while they are just 1-5 to start the season and not much is expected, it is hard to ignore the fact they have played the toughest schedule in the league thus far. Atlanta meanwhile is coming off a home upset over Connecticut to even its record at 3-3. That was its fourth straight home game, so this is the first time it has traveled since May 23rd. The .500 record is respectable, but the Dream have been unable to capitalize on their victories as they are 2-0 straight up and against the number following a win and going back, they are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win. This line will prove to be too much for Atlanta to cover. 10* (306) Las Vegas Aces |
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06-07-18 | Sun v. Liberty +7 | Top | 88-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK LIBERTY fir our WNBA Terminator. Both Connecticut and New York are coming off losses on Tuesday, so both will be on the rebound trail tonight. The Liberty should have the edge as they remain home after dropping their game against Phoenix that was decided late. New York did not get the typical home calls as it was outshot 19-5 at the free throw line, while getting outscored by 14 points from the charity stripe. The Liberty dominated the glass 39-21 and they will need a big effort on the boards against one of the best rebounding teams in the league. Connecticut lost at Atlanta on Tuesday as a significant favorite and it is favored by nearly the same amount against a team that is much better than the Dream. The Sun rolled in their first five games but three of those came against three of the worst teams in the WNBA while the other road win came against Washington which at the time was decimated with injuries and ailments. Fatigue is an issue as well as this is the fourth straight road game for Connecticut and it is the fourth in seven days with a possible lookahead to get back home where it squares off against Minnesota on Saturday. 10* (606) New York Liberty |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. It can be argued that this series should be tied at 1-1 right now but the Cavaliers are in a hole as was expected coming in. A win here is a must, or this series is definitely over and despite the must win scenario, Cleveland has value on its side in Game Three. The Cavaliers have won their last eight home playoff games after suffering a loss against Indiana in their first game. This is a role they have been much more effective in as they are winning at just a 33 percent clip against the number when favored but they are 17-11-1 ATS as underdogs on the season. The pressure is off Golden St. and that can bring complacency even for a team of its caliber. When the Warriors play to their potential, they are pretty much unbeatable, but the problem is that they do not play to their potential on the road all the time. They are 4-4 on the highway during the postseason with three of those losses coming by double-digits. Additionally, the Warriors are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Cleveland falls into a successful situation where we play on home underdogs after a game where they failed to cover the spread playing just their third game or less in 10 days. This situation is 106-65 ATS (62 percent) since 1996. 10* (506) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors -11 | Top | 103-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Game of the Week. The Cavaliers had their chance and blew it on Thursday as they let the possibly only opportunity to win a game in this series slip away. That could have put some doubt into the heads of the Warriors but if anything, it now gives them renewed confidence and motivation. Golden St. never covered the number throughout the game, but it is not like it played a bad game. It outshot Cleveland 51.1 percent to 44.4 percent, outshot the Cavaliers from long range and had only seven turnovers compared to the Cavaliers 11 miscues. The difference was rebounding as Cleveland won the rebounding battle 53-38 including 19-4 on the offensive glass. That prevented second chance opportunities on offense for the Warriors and also limited what they could do in transition even though they still racked up 28 fast break points. While Golden St. knows it got away with one, the Cavaliers mental state could be their demise here as the looks on some of the players after Game One was telling. Klay Thompson is questionable which takes away one of their better defenders, but it is the offense that can take this one over as Kevin Durant had a poor game and many questioned his effort. We can expect a big game from him and stop resorting to isolations. Golden St. falls into a great situation as we play against underdogs coming off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 53-15 (77.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (504) Golden St. Warriors |
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06-03-18 | Lynx +4.5 v. Sparks | Top | 69-77 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA LYNX for our WNBA Sunday Terminator. It has been a rough start to the season for Minnesota as it is 2-4 through its first six games and to put that into perspective, it took the Lynx 25 games last season to lose their fourth game. They have failed to cover any of these six games as the championship hangover looks to be in full effect. Playing Los Angeles for a second time after losing the first meeting should have them focused here. The Sparks are coming off a win over Phoenix in their last game which was a full week ago and that is a disadvantage with so much time off. They were fortunate to catch the Mercury in a bad shooting night from long range but count on that here from Minnesota. The Lynx are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 75 or more points in three straight games and Minnesota falls into a simple yet highly profitable WNBA situation as we play on road underdogs after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (315) Minnesota Lynx |
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05-31-18 | Aces +12 v. Storm | Top | 74-101 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the LAS VEGAS ACES for our WNBA Thursday Terminator. Not much has changed since this franchise moved from San Antonio to Las Vegas as the Stars were 8-26 last season and now the Aces are off to a 0-3 start. They were scorched in their first game of the season at Connecticut but have played well over the last tow as they lost by just five in Washington and then lost in their first ever home game by seven points against Seattle. After losing its season opener against Phoenix, the Storm have won four straight games and are showing why they are a team on the rise. They have failed to cover all three home games and are now being asked to cover the biggest pointspread they have been favored by since August of 2012. Going back to last season, while the Aces have been losing, they have been more than competitive on the road, going 12-6 ATS over their last 18 road games. They also fall into a great contrarian situation where we play on road underdogs after three or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins. This situation is 42-14 ATS (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (611) Las Vegas Aces |
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05-27-18 | Cavs v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 87-79 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. The Celtics once again stumbled on the road as it had a chance to close out this series but was unable to despite outshooting the Cavaliers 51.4 percent to 47.1 percent and getting the fortunes of a missing Kevin Love. They head back home where they are a perfect 10-0 this postseason both straight up and against the number and that is something we would typically fade but the public money is shading the side of Cleveland which is a bit surprising based on what we have seen. Love only played five minutes of Game Six and did not score so what LeBron James did was even more spectacular but repeating that on the road with no supporting cast will be a huge challenge. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Terry Rozier may only have six years of NBA experience among them, but in a seven-game first-round win over Milwaukee, in a five-game second-round win over Philadelphia, and in these first six games against Cleveland, they have shown they can handle the pressure James has won five straight Game Sevens, but his teams have never been as depleted as they are this season. While Boston was unable to avenge its first double-digit loss in this series, it is still 12-1 ATS this season revenging a loss of 10 points or more while going 15-3 ATS revenging a road loss of any kind. 10* (712) Boston Celtics |
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05-26-18 | Wings v. Dream -3.5 | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA DREAM for our WNBA Saturday Terminator. Atlanta is a team that is a sneaky under the radar unit that can make some noise this season. The Dream went just 12-22 last season despite an 8-7 start as the defense fell apart at the end of the season but there is good reason to think a playoff run is imminent. Atlanta is off to a 1-1 start and possesses one of the best unknown rosters in the WNBA. There were four teams that had three players make the 2017 All-Star teams - Minnesota (who went on to the championship), Los Angeles (runner-up), Connecticut (playoff team, 21 wins) and Atlanta. And this does not include six-time All-WNBA selection Angel McCoughtry who sat out last season. Additionally, the Dream signed Renee Montgomery and Jessica Breland. Dallas is off to a 1-2 start, the lone win coming at home and the two losses coming on the road. as they remain on the road, this is a tough spot for the Wings tonight. This is the home opener for Atlanta after splitting the first two games on the road. The Dream were the only ono-playoff team from last season to post a winning record at home as the highway was their downfall where they went 3-14. On top of the home opener, they will be out to seek some same season revenge after losing their season opener in Dallas by 23 points. 10* (320) Atlanta Dream |
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05-25-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 99-109 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. The season is on the line tonight for Cleveland and while the home team has dominated this series through the first five games, we are expecting the first close game of this series to finally take place tonight. Four of the five games have been decided by double-digits, all by at least nine points and the average deficit has been 18 ppg. For the Cavaliers, it has been LeBron James carrying the load, but the workload looks like it is starting to catch up. In the playoffs, James is averaging 40.6 minutes per game and has played more total minutes than anyone in the postseason and he was clearly fatigued in Game Five. He played down concerns of fatigue after the game, but his numbers have dropped off as the games go on so far in the conference finals. No one else has shown the ability to step up for Cleveland and at this point in the series, laying a large number like this is too much as we are getting the better team that is overdue for a strong performance on the road. Despite shooting only 36 percent, the Celtics improved to 10-0 at home in the playoffs as coach Brad Stevens changed his starting lineup, shortened his rotation to seven players and released waves of defenders at James and it obviously worked and now it is up to Boston to get it done away from home. The Cavaliers are 6-18 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more this season while going 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring 85 points or less. 10* (709) Boston Celtics |
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05-25-18 | Lynx v. Liberty +4.5 | Top | 78-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK LIBERTY for our WNBA Friday Terminator. We lost with the Liberty in their season opener as they lost as road favorites in Chicago but now in their second game, they come in as home underdogs. Granted, the class of opposition is on opposite ends of the league, but it is a dynamic we can take advantage of, especially with a team like New York that has the talent to compete for a championship. We mentioned on Sunday that the Liberty will be a highly motivated bunch this season but came out flat against the Sky. In each of the past two years with the new playoff format, the Liberty have finished as the No. 3 seed behind Minnesota and Los Angeles, giving New York an opening round bye. However, the Liberty have lost in the single-elimination second round both years. Making the early exit from last season even tougher is the fact they closed the regular season with 10 consecutive victories. Minnesota opened with a loss against revenge-minded Los Angeles but bounced back three nights later with a win over Dallas. The Lynx hit the road for the first time this season and while they have been a solid road team over the years, they are not nearly as strong as they are at home. This core group is just 26-25 ATS as road favorites over the last three years with most of those games coming against teams not nearly as good as New York is. 10* (316) New York Liberty |
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05-24-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +1 | Top | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Thursday Star Attraction. In the first close game of this series, after falling behind by double digits in both the first and third quarters, the Rockets came back both times and eventually pulled out the close victory to regain home court advantage in the Western Conference Finals. It took 5:18 for the Rockets to score their first points of the game, but then outscored the Warriors 53-34, including 38 points from Chris Paul and James Harden and that shows how dangerous this team is and one that can neutralize Golden St. While the pressure may have now shifted to the Houston side as being down 3-2 in this series and going back to Golden St. is a death sentence, the Rockets are still playing with house money which helps to play looser. It can be argued that the pressure still resides in Golden St. as it finds itself in a situation it has never been in since acquiring Kevin Durant. Before this series, the Warriors had gone a combined 24-3 in the playoffs while never losing more than one game in any of the six series. The confidence in Houston is at an all time high as it looked as though it was over after a 41-point loss and then falling behind 12-0 in Game Four, but they refused to give up and have the edge heading back home where the Rockets are 40-9 on the season. 10* (508) Houston Rockets |
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05-24-18 | Sparks v. Sun +2.5 | Top | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the CONNECTICUT SUN for our WNBA Thursday Terminator. Expectations are high in Connecticut and the Sun came out strong in their season opener. Last season was a strong finish as they went 20-8 following a 1-5 start to finish with 21 wins and a playoff berth for the first time since 2012. Connecticut lost to Phoenix in the postseason but knew it had a good thing going and came out focused on Sunday as it rolled over Las Vegas by 36 points. What made last season even more special was that the Sun lost Chiney Ogwumike for the season with a torn Achilles but is back and the All-Star forward is ready to go. Los Angeles opened its season with an upset win at Minnesota which was a revenge victory after losing the WNBA Finals last season and the Lynx were clearly in a letdown during the ceremony night. The Sparks followed that up with a win at Indiana, arguably the worst team in the league, by 17 points but it will be challenged tonight. They will again be without Candice Parker who is nursing a back injury and her absence will be felt in this matchup. Connecticut falls into a great contrarian situation where we play against road favorites that averaged 75 or more ppg last season, after a win by 10 points or more. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (314) Connecticut Sun |
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05-23-18 | Cavs -1 v. Celtics | Top | 83-96 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. The Rockets snapped the Warriors 16-game home playoff winning streak last night so can the Cavaliers do the same to the Celtics nine-game home playoff run? The short answer is yes. While the home teams have dominated this series thus far, we are in store for a closer game after the first four games being decided by 19.3 ppg which means a strong chance for a road team to break through. Much has been said about the Cavaliers defense and how it is a liability and while there is no denying that, Cleveland needs its offense to play better in Boston. According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Cavaliers offense improved by a staggering 20.5 points per 100 possessions between Games One-Two and Games Three-Four and as a team, Cleveland shot 19.3 percentage points better from beyond the arc in its two series wins than in its two losses. The defense improved as well over the last two games, but it is the offense that needs to carry this team. The momentum is clearly with Cleveland now and it has the upper hand as Boston is a team that has thrived on youth this postseason and now suddenly looks disoriented without a go-to player and opposite a more veteran squad that has found a new attitude led by LeBron James. We mentioned yesterday that the pressure was on Golden St. despite being up 2-1 in its series and the pressure is now back on the Celtics here despite being back on their home floor. Being such a young and inexperienced team, that pressure will get to them tonight. 10* (707) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. The call on the Rockets on Sunday was a bad one so coming back with them tonight may not seem prudent, but it is based on the opposite of what conventional wisdom is going by. The pressure is all over the Rockets to win tonight to avoid a 3-1 series deficit right? Not exactly. The Rockets have been written off after their landslide loss Sunday, but he worst has already happened for them and they are now playing with house money. If Golden St. loses, the series is tied with Houston reclaiming home court advantage and it will be without a big piece for tonight that is being overlooked. While not many believe that Andre Iguodala being out is not a big deal, it is a huge deal. Iguodala has proven himself to be a forerunner for the Warriors this year, when he is engaged the way he was engaged in Game Three, his teammates typically follow his lead and the lack of focus that can be attributed to the Warriors at times has a lot to do with Iguodala being engaged. Additionally, no other player on the roster can defend 1-5 like Iguodala, and that could be a huge advantage for the Rockets. Houston committed 19 turnovers in Game Three which was a big part of the 23 fast break points that the Warriors put up and the Rockets are well aware that they cannot let Golden St. go into transition. Despite a huge majority of the betting tickets on the Warriors, the line has actually gone from -8.5 to -8 in some places and this reverse line movement is a telling sign. Houston is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 road games revenging a loss while going 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games revenging a loss of 30 points or more. 10* (505) Houston Rockets |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Monday Enforcer. We had Cleveland on Saturday as it rolled to a 30-point win to cut its deficit in this series in half. That victory was one of all six games in the Conference Finals that have been decided by at least 13 points, four of which have been decided by at least 22 points. These finals are due for a close game and this could be the one as the Celtics look to rebound from a horrible effort in Game Three. They shot just 39.2 percent from the floor including 27.3 percent from long range while the typically stiff defense allowing Cleveland to shoot 48.7 percent and 50 percent respectively. All five Cavaliers starters scored in double-figures for the first in forever and we likely are not going to see that again while watching the Boston defense improve as a whole. Conversely, we will see a regression of the Cavaliers defense which has been horrible most of the season. They contested 76 percent of the Celtics' shots in Game Three, according to data compiled by ESPN Stats & Information, compared to just 58 percent on the shots they contested in Games One and Two. Boston has struggled on the road this postseason but that should be no excuse for the effort put forth and this has been an ideal spot all season long. Boston is 21-4 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season including a perfect 12-0 ATS revenging a loss of 10 points or more. 10* (705) Boston Celtics |
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05-20-18 | Mercury v. Storm -3.5 | 87-82 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a play on the SEATTLE STORM for our WNBA Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Seattle exceeded expectations last season as in a rebuilding year, it snuck into the playoffs only to get bounced in the first round for a second straight season. Last year, that loss came against Phoenix so there will be some added motivation tonight for some early season payback. This is the first game for new Seattle head coach Dan Hughes, but he is far from a rookie as he is the most experienced coach in WNBA history (524 games) and the third-winningest with 237 victories. The Storm have one of the greatest points guard in WNBA history in Sue Bird, but it is their youth that has everyone excited highlighted by Jewell Loyd and Breanna Stewart who won the WNBA Rookie if the Year award in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Seattle won just five road games last season, but its 10 home wins were tied for sixth most in the league. We won with Phoenix on Friday as it took car of business at home against Dallas, pulling away in the second half. The Mercury were 24-27 from the charity stripe against the Wings which ended up being the difference and we cannot ignore the fact that they only shot 40.6 percent from the floor and that was against one of the worst defenses in the league. As mentioned, we expect the Mercury to have a solid season with its core group back plus a number of newcomers that adds a lot of depth. Playing their first road game against a hungry Seattle team will not be easy and we expect the Storm to get their revenge. 9* (612) Seattle Storm |
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05-20-18 | Rockets +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. With the Rockets winning Game Two by 22 points, people are already giving Game Three to Golden St., but it is not going to be as easy as they think. While the Warriors responded from defeats in the first round to San Antonio and then against the Pelicans in the Western Conference semifinals, this is a much tougher opponent and you cannot ignore the fact Houston won a league-high 31 road games during the regular season and are 3-1 on the road in the postseason. Houston is just 1-4 this season as a road underdog which sounds unappealing but three of those losses came with no Chris Paul in the lineup and the other came when everyone rested in the season finale at Sacramento. The victory was here against Golden St. in the season opener for both teams. The Warriors are 21-5 following a loss but they have only covered 14 of those 26 games due to inflated prices which we again have here. This is another odd betting scenario as 65 percent of bets and 78 percent of money is on Golden St., yet this line had not moved since it came out after Game Two on Wednesday night and has moved only a half-point in some spots. Houston cannot allow Golden St. to get out in transition and that ended up being a big part of the Warriors being able to pull away in Game One as they outscored Houston 18-3 in fast break points. Game Two was a completely different story as the Warriors finished with just seven fast break points and this will again be key in Game Three. 10* (503) Houston Rockets |
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05-20-18 | Liberty -4 v. Sky | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK LIBERTY for our WNBA Sunday Enforcer. The Sky came through for us yesterday as they won in Indiana by 18 points. They had a big edge at the free throw line which was a big difference as was the fact the Fever once again showed how bad of an offense they have going back to last season. Things will get a lot tougher tonight and we will be fading Chicago despite this being its home opener and in a brand new home as well as they are now actually playing in Chicago at Wintrust Arena as opposed to playing their games in Rosemont. New York opens its season on the road and gets a good draw with Change having played on Saturday. In each of the past two years with the new playoff format, the Liberty have finished as the No. 3 seed behind Minnesota and Los Angeles, giving New York an opening round bye. However, the Liberty have lost in the single-elimination second round both years. Making the early exit from last season even tougher is the fact they closed the regular season with 10 consecutive victories. This is a team that will be playing with a chip on its shoulder all season long under the leadership of new head coach Katie Smith who the players will respond very well to. New York took care of its top priority in the offseason by re-signing franchise star Tina Charles (2012 MVP, 8-time All-WNBA), while also resigning Kia Vaughn, Bria Hartley, Lindsay Allen and Rebecca Allen so the core group is back to take that next step. 10* (609) New York Liberty |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Saturday Star Attraction. Cleveland finds itself in a 2-0 hole but al least those first two games were on the road and now it gets back in the series by holding serve on its own home floor. We can see a scenario where the Cavaliers play one of their best games of the postseason amid adversity and then fall flat on Monday with this clearly being the biggest. The three days off in-between Games Two and Three benefits Cleveland more than Boston and not because of any rest factor but because it should fuel a fire for the Cavaliers while the Celtics confidence and momentum take a hit with the time off. Boston is now 9-0 at home in the postseason but this is a different team on the road. The Celtics are 1-4 on the highway and the offense has been the reason for the huge discrepancy. In those nine home games, Boston has shot fewer than 42 percent only once but in the five road games, it has shot below 42 percent four times. We know the Cleveland defense has been trash but all it takes is more effort, especially on its home floor, where it can get back in this series. Cleveland has been here before as just two years ago, it trailed 2-0 and then 3-1 in the NBA Finals to Golden St. before coming back to win in seven games and end the 52-year championship drought. The Cavaliers climb back into the series as we see inspired efforts and not just from LeBron James but from the role players that have been taking so much heat the last three days. 10* (704) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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05-19-18 | Sky v. Indiana Fever | Top | 82-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO SKY for our WNBA Saturday Terminator. Chicago struggled out of the gate last season as it went 3-12 in its first 15 games as the trade of Elena Delle Donne was felt right away. But instead of completely folding, the Sky got some newfound chemistry and closed the season 9-11 and while they missed the playoffs, it was not by much and they can carry that momentum into this season. Stefanie Dolson had a strong season and was named an All-Star, while the veteran backcourt of Allie Quigley and Courtney Vandersloot continued to blossom. Getting rid of turnover issues is the most important thing for the Sky to accomplish if they want to make a postseason run. Indiana was a disaster last season as it finished with the second worst record in the WNBA. The Fever lost Tamika Catchings to retirement and no one was able to fill the void. Candice Dupree had a very good season and they do bring back most contributors but a key one will be missing today as Shenise Johnson is out. The biggest obstacle is figuring out how Kelsey Mitchell, Victoria Vivians, both rookies, and Dupree can develop chemistry and that may take a while. Last season, the Fever were second to last in offensive rating and last in defensive rating, so the record fit the style of play. 10* (303) Chicago Sky |
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05-18-18 | Wings v. Mercury -4.5 | Top | 78-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHOENIX MERCURY for our WNBA Friday Enforcer. Phoenix has arguably been the biggest underachieving team in the league over the last two years during the regular season but there is plenty of optimism in 2018. Diana Taurasi is healthy and rested after ending her overseas season early, DeWanna Bonner is back after missing all of last season and Phoenix signed two veterans that will help immediately. And then there is Brittney Griner who is coming off her best season ever, winning her first scoring title (and leading the league in blocks for the fifth consecutive year. The trio led the charge during the 2014 season when the Mercury won a WNBA-record 29 regular season games on their way to winning the third championship in franchise history. Additionally, they added Briann January and Sancho Lyttle. Dallas has the potential to improve as well mainly because of the signing of Australian center Liz Cambage and bringing her back to the franchise that originally drafted her No. 2 overall back in 2011. While she will help around the rim, this is still a weak team defensively as last season, the Wings had the second worst defensive rating in the league. Though this team has many draft lottery picks from recent years, Dallas had the worst, or second-worst, defensive team rating every season since 2010. Phoenix has lost its season opener the last two seasons which has set a tone and it will out to ovoid that going into 2018. 10* (302) Phoenix Mercury |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. If the Rockets do not win tonight, this series is pretty assured to be over in four games, so this is a must win for Houston to keep any hope alive. They played good for half of Game One, but it was not the typical team effort that we have seen throughout the season and it will take a full team effort to even this series. Ad we think that happens tonight. James Harden takes a lot of heat for coming up small in the postseason but his effort in Game One cannot be understated. He still got grief from a select few gasbags, bashing him for ball-hogging and selfish play. The reality is, he was exceptional and most of his mistakes came from trying to do too much because he had to. One thing we mentioned in the Game One analysis was that Houston cannot allow Golden St. to get out in transition and that ended up being a big part of the Warriors being able to pull away as they outscored Houston 18-3 in fast break points. Despite the win and cover, the Warriors could be vulnerable tonight based on their inconsistent play on the road as since January 20th, they are just 11-11 in their 22 road games. We are aware that they were not at full strength and that Golden St. has only lost twice in the postseason with Kevin Durant Steph Curry on the floor together, but we cannot underestimate what Houston has done this season when healthy as well. Tying up the series is vital, and Houston does it tonight. 10* (502) Houston Rockets |
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05-15-18 | Cavs +1 v. Celtics | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. We made a horrible call on the Cavaliers in Game One on Sunday as they came out with little energy and were unable to find any shooting touch. They missed their first 14 three-pointers and finished 4-26 from behind the arc. Needless to say, Cleveland needs to shoot better, and we are fully expecting that as it ended up shooting just 36 percent from the floor including only 32.7 percent by the starters. The Celtics boast a strong defense, but it is not that dominant as it was just one of those nights by the Cavaliers. They were not much better on defense as they lost their men and allowed a whopping 60 points in the paint which was a big factor in Boston shooting 51.2 percent from the floor. While the big news was LeBron James having an ineffective game, Kevin Love was neutralized as well and when he is clicking, the whole team plays better. Cleveland was out of it after the first quarter and a big reason for that was because Love sat on the bench for most of it because of two early fouls. Keeping him in the game early will be important. Back on March 27th, Cleveland also went 4-26 from long range against Miami and James took over in the next game by scoring 41 points on 14-26 shooting while pulling down 11 boards and dishing out eight assists. Cleveland now an underdog and on the season, it is 11-4 ATS when getting fewer than five points and here, we play against teams in the second half of the season that are +3 to +7 in scoring differential going up against teams with a +/- 3 scoring differential, after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 51-22 ATS (69.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (701) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | Top | 119-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Monday Enforcer. Despite being underdogs in Game One and not having the home court edge, the Warriors are over 2-1 favorites to win this series, so Vegas is telling us something in this opener. We like the Rockets home court edge, especially in the opening game where we typically see great energy from the home team in trying to not give up home court advantage. This is the first time all season that the Warriors are underdogs when both Steph Curry and Kevin Durant are on the floor. Additionally, it's the first time the No. 2 Warriors have been in a playoff series without home-court advantage since 2014 when they lost to the Los Angeles Clippers 4-3 in the opening round. Houston is 50-5 this season in games where James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capela have played, and during the regular season, the Rockets outscored their opponents in those games by an average of 11.5 ppg. Taking care of the ball will be vital throughout this series and Houston possesses a turnover rate of 9.8 per 100 possessions which is the second lowest postseason rate in the 41 years since the league started counting turnovers. While that increases productivity on offense, it also decreases fast break opportunities on defense which is important for the Rockets that ranked 22nd in transition defense this season. Golden St. is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games when playing against a team with a winning record while Houston is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games coming off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. 10* (732) Houston Rockets |
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05-13-18 | Capitals v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Sunday Breakaway. We recommend a play on the puckline with the Lightning as the moneyline has risen based on their Game One loss and need for a victory tonight. Tampa Bay will be playing with a lot more urgency in Game Two as it had only 10 shots through the first two periods on Friday as it fell behind 4-0. Breaking it down further is even worse as when Washington scored its fourth goal at 6:42 of the second period, the Lightning had only four shots on goal. Heading to Washington down 2-0 is a recipe for disaster so we can expect a more fired up team early in the game and just two weeks ago, the Lightning lost 6-2 to the Bruins in Game One of the second round, then won the next four games to advance. Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is coming off a rare poor outing as he allowed all four goals before being pulled. This was just the second time in the postseason he has allowed three or more goals and only the seventh time since early March he has done so. He bounced back all previous six times with strong efforts and allowed 2.0 gpg in those follow up contests. We mentioned in the Game One analysis how good Washington has been playing on the road, but this is a difficult situation it is falling into tonight. Tampa Bay is 16-4 against the puckline revenging a loss of two goals or more this season including a 9-1 record when that loss took place at home. 10* (56) Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 PL |
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05-13-18 | Cavs -1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 83-108 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. Boston has gone 7-0 at home during the postseason yet comes in as a home underdog in Game One. That can be considered a value play on the Celtics, but the Cavaliers have found their rhythm as they took care of the Raptors in four games which set up five days of rest in-between games. That is a big deal for Cleveland which played 11 games in 22 days in the first two series, so this unexpected time off came at a great time. LeBron James is obviously the key for Cleveland as he has carried his team on his back in the playoffs as he has averaged 34.3 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 9.0 apg, 1.5 spg and 1.0 bpg. Boston has been his favorite target in the postseason as he has scored 979 points against the Celtics in the postseason, which is the most by any player in NBA history. The Cavaliers took out Boston in five games last season and James averaged 29.6 ppg, 6.8 apg, 6.4 rpg, 2.2 spg, and 1.2 bpg and he put up at least 30 points in all four of their wins. Although lost in the LeBron hype has been the improved play of Kevin Love who has regained his touch as he averaged 25 ppg and 11 rpg in the last three games against Toronto. The Celtics defense was tremendous during the regular season, but they have taken a big step back as they are allowing 105.8 points per 100 possessions after giving up just 101.5 ppg during the regular season. Cleveland won here in the last meeting in February by 22 points and Boston had Kyrie Irving at the time while this puts the Cavaliers in a great situation. We play against home underdogs that are revenging a loss of 20 points or more, off a home win by three points or less. This situation is 34-8 ATS (81 percent) since 1996. 10* (733) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics -1 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. The Sixers kept the series alive with a win on Monday to send it back to Boston for Game Five and while momentum could be on their side, the Celtics have the overall edges to close out this series at home. It comes down to one thing for Boston and it is really simple, shoot the ball better. Turnovers were an issue Monday, but the decline has been mostly about the Celtics' shooting, and mostly about their shooting from beyond the arc. After shooting 32-for-71 (45 percent) from three-point range in Games One and Two, the Celtics shot 21-for-70 (30 percent) from long range in Games Three and Four. A return home definitely helps. Thus far in the postseason, the Celtics have been 11.5 points per 100 possessions better offensively at home (where they've averaged 111.4 ppg) than they've been on the road (99.9 ppg). Five of their six best offensive games of the playoffs have come at TD Garden, where they're 6-0. A win would close this series out at the opportune time with Cleveland already heading to the Eastern Conference Finals so close to equal rest is ideal. The Sixers are just three games over .500 on the road while the Celtics remain extremely tough at home with a 33-14 record. Boston is 10-0 ATS revenging a double-digit loss more this season and it falls into a solid situation where we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a game where they failed to cover the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 165-104 ATS (61.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (712) Boston Celtics |
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05-08-18 | Jazz v. Rockets -12 | Top | 102-112 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. After Utah tied this series with a win in Houston in Game Two, the Rockets went full steam ahead on the road and swept both games in Utah by double-digits. That pretty much put an end to this series and the Rockets know that ending this series tonight is imperative with Golden St. likely doing the same against New Orleans. Houston was not great in Game Four on offense as it shot just 42 percent including 26.3 percent from long range, but it was the defense that did the job and that underrated unit does not get enough recognition. When the Rockets put the clamps on teams like they did in Games Three and Four, they are difficult to beat even when they have one of their worst shooting performances of the year. Houston limited Utah to 40.1 percent shooting in Games Three and Four, including 31 percent from behind the arc. Utah put together a special season after a slow start, but it does not have the horses to compete in a full series against a team like the Rockets, especially with Ricky Rubio sitting and he has already been downgraded to out for tonight. Houston is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games when playing against a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 while the Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, we play against road underdogs that are outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg going up against an opponent after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (506) Houston Rockets |
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05-07-18 | Celtics v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Monday Enforcer. While this series is likely over, the Sixers are not going down without a fight and a win could spark something. This series could easily be 2-1 Philadelphia as it blew a 22-point lead in Game Two and then lost in overtime in Game Three so while it is in a hole, it knows it can compete and remain alive for at least two more days. Given the way Game Three ended, with a couple of crucial turnovers in the closing moments, it might seem difficult look at the good things, but the reality is that the Sixers did enough things right in the first 46 minutes of the game that it never should have come down to the final seven. The turnovers were key, but Philadelphia has to close better down low as it missed 14 shots within four feet, so the game should not have even come down to the final seconds and when these shots fall tonight, Game Five will be necessary. What really makes this play stand out is the fact that the line is 2.5 points less than what it closed at in Game Three, so the value is on the home side. The revenge angle is in play as we back home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. This situation is 52-22 ATS (70.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (502) Philadelphia 76ers |
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05-06-18 | Warriors -6 v. Pelicans | Top | 118-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. New Orleans stole Game Three of this series as it played a solid game offensively, shooting 50 percent from the floor and it held the Golden St. offense in check. The Warriors shot just 38 percent including only 29 percent from long range and we do not see them having a second straight poor game on offense. We expected the Pelicans to be more in line from the charity stripe, but they were once again outshot considerably and in the three games, Golden St. is 67-85 while New Orleans is just 25-32 and another significant advantage for the Warriors will be detrimental, especially if the Warriors shoot the ball better from the floor. One player we can expect to be better is Steph Curry as he scored only 19 points while shooting only 6-of-19 from the field and 3-of-9 from three-point range in 27 minutes. It was acknowledged that Game Two is always the worst coming back from injury for whatever reason and that was on full display after he came off the bench in his first game back. While New Orleans did not play a perfect game, it was a near perfect gameplan against the Warriors and duplicating that will be tough. going back, New Orleans is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games off an upset win by 15 points or more as a home underdog and Golden St. falls into a fantastic situation where we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second half of the season with a scoring differential of +3 to +7 ppg going up against a team with a scoring differential of +/- 3 ppg, after allowing 110 points or more two straight games. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (705) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-05-18 | Raptors v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. Toronto had chances to win each of the first two games of this series, but it blew big leads in both and now finds itself in a hole that will be near impossible to get out of. Cleveland has the Raptors number and even though this is far from the strong Cavaliers teams of the past, they should continue to dominate this series, especially heading back home. The Cavaliers are 9-1 at home against the Raptors over the last three years in the regular season and postseason while riding an eight-game playoff winning streak against Toronto and are 21-3 at The Q against Eastern Conference playoff opponents. For the second straight game, the Cavaliers have had a significant advantage in points scored off turnovers and through the first two games, Cleveland is outscoring the Raptors 34-8 on points scored off turnovers. That is significant since those games were on the road and the home/road splits favor Cleveland even more. History is not on the side of Toronto as twenty-six teams have lost the first two games at home in a best-of-seven series and just five have come back to win the series with Game Three losses coming 17 times. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Raptors are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games revenging a straight up loss as a favorite of seven or more points. Additionally, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a double-digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more, with a winning record playing another winning team. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 1996. 10* (704) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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05-04-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans +5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS PELICANS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. The Pelicans are in a 2-0 hole in this series which was expected as the Warriors have now won 14 straight home playoff games. After sweeping the Blazers, many are expecting the Pelicans to get ousted in four games, but we expect them to steal at least one game and this is the one to get. New Orleans played good in Game Two as it was in it the whole game but a late 9-0 run from Golden St. put the game away. The Pelicans have a very underrated offense as they finished No. 8 in the NBA in offensive efficiency and they are shooting close to 50 percent from the floor in the postseason. The difference in this series has not been Golden St. taking control on offense or defense, but it has been from the free throw line. The Warriors are 46-59 from the charity stripe while the Pelicans are just 16-20 so the disparity is enormous, and we can expect a regression toward the mean with New Orleans heading back home. Golden St. is as healthy as it has been all season which is bad news for the rest of the NBA but it has not been good all season when playing against winning teams as it is 17-32 ATS against above .500 teams while going just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Additionally, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a win by six points or less going up against an opponent after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games. This situation is 34-14 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (514) New Orleans Pelicans |
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05-03-18 | 76ers -3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Thursday Enforcer. The Sixers came up small in Game One of this series as they looked lethargic and had no sense of urgency to take an early lead in this series. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons both played well but no one else showed up as take away their 18-32 shooting, the rest of the team went 17-51 (33.3 percent) including a horrid 3-21 (14.3 percent) from long range. Defensively, the Sixers were just as bad as they allowed 17 three-pointers while Terry Rozier, Al Horford and Jason Tatum all posted postseason career highs in scoring. Amazingly, it was the first time that three Celtics players scored 25 or more points in a non-overtime postseason game since Boston's original Big Three of Larry Bird, Kevin McHale and Robert Parish did so in 1987. The Sixers appeared to come in overconfident after their easy series win over Miami while Boston had to go the distance against Milwaukee, so it was human nature to come in and not take a team as serious as they should. We expect the effort to be much different tonight and it is going to be a tough task for Boston to play as good as it did in the opener. Philadelphia has responded well in the past as it is 19-6 in its last 25 games coming off a double-digit road loss and is has a solid situation in its favor as we play against home underdogs after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 69-35 (66.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (509) Philadelphia 76ers |
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05-02-18 | Jazz +11.5 v. Rockets | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the UTAH JAZZ for our NBA Wednesday Star Attraction. Houston took Game One of this series on Sunday, but we felt good with the Utah pick even though it did not cover, and it is good enough to back the Jazz again. Utah shot 50 percent from the floor which was close to five percent higher than the Rockets, but the difference was long range shooting as Houston hit 53.1 percent of its shots from beyond the arc compared to just 31.8 percent for the Jazz. We do not expect that to happen again while we expect the two-point shooting to hold form although maybe not as extreme as Utah held the edge there on Sunday 57.4 percent to 40 percent and that is a huge variance for a much higher percentage shot. The Jazz played better than what the final score indicated as a lot that could be attributed to first game jitters as they got behind big early and could not recover. We saw a similar situation last night as New Orleans trailed by 21 points at halftime in Game One but responded with a solid effort in Game Two. A similar outcome should be expected tonight. Houston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after covering three straight games as a favorite and Utah falls into a solid contrarian situation as we play on road underdogs of 10 or more points after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games going up against an opponent after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. This situation is 53-32 (62.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (507) Utah Jazz |
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05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO RAPTORS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. Many are calling this the biggest playoff game in Toronto history and it is hard to argue that fact. The Cavaliers have dispatched the Raptors each of the last two years, winning in six games in the 2016 Eastern Conference Finals and sweeping them in the second-round last season. Setting the tone in the opening game is huge for Toronto in trying to solve the postseason problems with Cleveland. One huge edge going into tonight is the fact the Raptors will be the more rested team, having wrapped up their first-round series against the Wizards in six games on Friday while Cleveland needed seven games to defeat Indiana which ended on Sunday. The Cavaliers are not a very good team right now as it is LeBron James and that is about it and while he can take over a game by himself, the challenge will be more difficult here. They struggled in all three games in Indiana and now they face the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference as Toronto is now 37-7 at Air Canada Centre including three wins over Washington in the first round. The Cavaliers are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning home record and while Cleveland has been very good as an undog this season, it has been an underdog of six points or more only once and that resulted in a loss and non-cover in Portland. The Raptors fall into an excellent playoff situation as we play against underdogs as a No. 4 seed in the playoffs, in the 1st game of a playoff series. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (558) Toronto Raptors |
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04-30-18 | 76ers -3 v. Celtics | Top | 101-117 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Monday Star Attraction. Philadelphia is coming off a 4-1 series win over Miami and it dominated with three of those wins coming by 13, 20 and 27 points and this team is peaking at the right time. The Sixers have now won 20 of their last 21 games while going back, they are 31-6 over their last 37 games so this is a very dangerous team for the teams ahead of them in the standings. Philadelphia had the most efficient starting five in the NBA this season and while Boston got the best of Philadelphia during the regular season as it won three of four meetings, the last one came in mid-January and both teams are much different since then. The Celtics survived a hard-fought series against Milwaukee with the home team winning all seven games. Boston is an elite defensive team however Philadelphia will be a much harder team to defend than Milwaukee. Philadelphia uses constant movement offensively, has an inside game to complement their outside shooters and it hits the offensive boards hard, something Milwaukee did not do. The Jaylen Brown injury for Boston is significant as it was able to produce without him against the Bucks, but it will be a much bigger challenge in this matchup as he is listed as doubtful for tonight. coming off a big win is no issue for the Sixers as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit win and they have a great situation on their side where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a straight up loss as a favorite going up against an opponent after a cover as a double-digit favorite. This situation is 33-8 ATS (80.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (555) Philadelphia 76ers |
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04-29-18 | Jazz +11.5 v. Rockets | Top | 96-110 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the UTAH JAZZ for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. Houston cruised in its first-round series against Minnesota as it lost just the one game on the road and while the opponent now may not seem like a big roadblock heading toward the faceoff against Golden St., it is not going to be easy. Everyone expected Houston to be here but not the same group expected Utah to be here, but this is a sneaky Jazz team that plays the patented playoff basketball. The Jazz won 29 of their last 35 games in the regular season, with the league's best defense (by a wide margin) and the 11th ranked offense over that time. The loss of Ricky Rubio is not ideal for sure but that only gives Donovan Mitchell the opportunity to step up even more. Rubio played only seven minutes on Friday before leaving with a hamstring injury, so Mitchell took over with 38 points and these opportunities look to be right in his wheelhouse. The Houston offense has been the focal point for most of the season, but it is the only team in the playoffs that is getting outshot on the season and no one is paying attention to that. The Jazz took 75 percent of their shots from the restricted area or three-point range and only the Rockets (81 percent) had a higher rate in the first round. Houston took all four meetings this season against Utah by double-digits but three of those took place in 2017 when Utah was a different team while the final game in February was closer than the final score indicated. Here, we play on double-digit road underdogs that are revenging a home loss after a cover as a double-digit favorite. This situation is 40-18 (69 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (553) Utah Jazz |
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04-28-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. The home team has held serve in all six games of this series thus far and we expect that to continue through the final game. Typically, this could be a good contrarian play to back the Bucks but there is too much going on the Celtics side especially with Milwaukee coming off a hot shooting night. The last game played here on Sunday was a very similar setup with the Bucks coming off a game where they shot 52.1 percent from the floor which was over 10 percent better than the Celtics. Boston locked down on defense which we anticipate happening again tonight as Boston looks to improve upon its 30-14 home record. Three-point shooting has been a main ingredient to the success of the home team in this series as Milwaukee shoots 7.6 percent better at home than on the road while the Celtics are almost identical with a 7.3 percent differential favoring the home floor. During the regular season, the Celtics were No. 1 in the league allowing teams to shoot just 33.9 percent from long range and after allowing the Bucks to hit just 27.3 percent at home in Game Five, we will another strong defensive effort. While history cannot dictate future outcomes, it is important to note how big home court is in series elimination games as there have been just 26 Game Seven road winners in 128 games in NBA playoff history with the home team winning close to 80 percent of the time. Boston has lost 10 games this season by double-digits where it has had a chance for payback. It has gone 9-0 ATS in the previous nine opportunities with the tenth being tonight. 10* (702) Boston Celtics |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers -1 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. The Pacers came through on Wednesday as they rallied from a 12-point deficit and had a chance to pull off the upset but a no call on a goaltend by LeBron James set up the game winning possession for the Cavaliers. James finished with a 44-10-8 line and was 15-15 from the free throw line and yet it still took a last second shot to win which shows how dependent Cleveland is on just one player and that is not a good sign in the postseason. As mentioned on Wednesday, this has been an Indiana dominated series based on the fact the Cavaliers have not run away with any game. Cleveland and Indiana have played nine times this season with five of those games resulting in wins by the Pacers, three of those games resulting in wins by the Cavaliers by three, three and four points and the final game resulting in a Cleveland win by seven points. Indiana has covered four of the five games in this series and it could be five-for-five, but it blew a golden opportunity in Game Four at home to take a 3-1 series lead so now it needs to take care of business at home to extend. The Cavaliers are 11-22 ATS this season against teams shooting 46 percent or better from the floor and we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 (that are allowing 103 or more ppg, after a win by three points or less. This situation is 94-49 ATS (65.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (512) Indiana Pacers |
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04-26-18 | Celtics +5 v. Bucks | Top | 86-97 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Thursday Enforcer. We won with Boston on Tuesday in the pivotal Game Five as the Celtics grabbed a 3-2 series lead heading back to Milwaukee. The key to the victory was defense. The Bucks shot 54.2 percent from the floor heading into Game Five and over the last three decades, only three other teams shot better through the first four games of a playoff series. On Tuesday, they hit only 36.7 percent of their shots and it was no coincidence. The return of Marcus Smart was the main cause as his offensive line was average but there was the defense on Khris Middleton, who had shot the lights out in the four previous games but was held to 23 points on 21 shots. Semi Ojeleye was inserted into the starting lineup not for his offense as his strength and positioning kept Giannis Antetokounmpo off balance as he was unable to drive and was held to just 16 points on 10 shots. That defense will be important again tonight. Boston went 17-13 while Smart was sidelined with his hand and thumb injury and it is 41-16 with him in the lineup. The Celtics have covered four of the five games in this series which has extended the recent situations as Boston is now 28-14 ATS against winning teams while Milwaukee is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Bucks are 4-15 ATS as home favorites of six points or less this season. 10* (501) Boston Celtics |
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04-25-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Wednesday Supreme Annihilator. Oklahoma City closed the regular season strong by going 11-5 over their final 16 games with all five losses all coming by four points or less and it then took Game One of this series against Utah. It has been all downhill since then as the Thunder have dropped the last three games to fall behind 3-1 and now must reel off their own three-game winning streak to win this series and they are more than capable of doing that. Russell Westbrook is unfairly taking the blame for this meltdown and while his shots have not been falling, he is doing the other things which he has done all season. Carmelo Anthony is doing nothing for Oklahoma City yet is not taking nearly as much flack despite going 17-46 (37 percent) from the floor including 4-19 (21 percent) from long range and grabbing a total of just 19 rebounds and handing out zero assists during this three-game slide. The due factor is never part of backing a team since there is no substance behind it but Anthony is due more than anybody which would be an added bonus. Westbrook and Paul George can take over a game and we expect that here as the Thunder are not prepared to go home yet. We are seeing a reverse line move in this one as this game opened at -3 and has gone to -3.5 despite a huge percentage of the money coming in on the Jazz. 10* (716) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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04-25-18 | Pacers +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS for our NBA Wednesday Star Attraction. The Pacers let one get away on Sunday and according to some of the media gasbags, they lost their chance to win this series which is the furthest from the truth. Cleveland and Indiana have played eight times this season with five of those games resulting in wins by the Pacers, two of those games resulting in wins by the Cavaliers by three and four points and the final game resulting in a Cleveland win by seven points. Clearly, the Cavaliers are again overpriced as Indiana has shown all season that it can play with and beat Cleveland, but this number is priced on home team public action. This is a situation where most of the betting tickets are on the Pacers by a 2-1 margin but the money on the Indiana side is 90 percent, indicating the smart money is on the Pacers side. While Cleveland has struggled with Indiana this season except for one win by seven points, it has struggled in this situation all season against most teams. The Cavaliers are 11-21 ATS this season against teams shooting 46 percent or better from the floor while going 3-16 ATS as home favorites between 6.5 and 12 points. Indiana meanwhile is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against winning teams and it has covered six straight games following a loss. Additionally, we play on road teams allowing 103 or more ppg, after trailing their last two games by double-digits at halftime. This situation is 150-89 ATS (62.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (711) Indiana Pacers |
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04-24-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -3 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Tuesday Supreme Annihilator. The home team has held serve through the first four games of this series and we expect that to continue Tuesday. The Celtics are 29-14 at home while the Bucks are five games under .500 and on the season, Boston is 14-7 ATS at home against winning teams. One key factor Boston has dominated in this series is the offensive glass. The Celtics have won the offensive rebounding battle against the Bucks in all four games and by a combined 53-21. This sets up a lot more second chance opportunities where they need to continue to take advantage of. During the regular season, the Celtics were No. 1 in the league allowing teams to shoot just 33.9 percent from long range. In the playoffs, they are dead last, allowing the Bucks to shoot 43.6 percent. Milwaukee was no where near that percentage during the regular season, so we can expect some regression. On the flip side, Boston is shooting below its average from beyond the arc and the last two games have been especially bad, so the return home will help. Boston is 18-4 ATS this season revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points while Milwaukee is just 18-30 ATS in its last 48 games coming off a home win. Additionally, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 100 points or more two straight games going up against an opponent after a win by three points or less. This situation is 61-27 ATS (69.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (702) Boston Celtics |
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04-23-18 | Rockets -6 v. Wolves | Top | 119-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Monday Enforcer. We were on the Timberwolves on Saturday as they cut the Houston deficit in this series in half, but we are expecting the Rockets to respond and retake control. Part of the reason for backing the Timberwolves in Game Three was the fact it was the first home playoff game in Minnesota is 13 years and while letdown may be the wrong term here, there is little chance there is as much energy as there was on Saturday night. As mentioned, the Rockets were unconscious in the first two games of this series from long range, going a combined 38-82 (46.3 percent) but they were just 5-41 (36.6 percent) in Game Three and we expect a reversal of that especially from James Harden who is 4-18 over the last two games from behind the arc. A turnaround on defense can also be expected as Minnesota shot 50 percent from the floor and put up 121 points in Game Three, but the Timberwolves averaged 91.5 ppg in the first two games and shot just 38.8 percent from the field in Game Two. Houston dominated this series during the regular season as well and the loss on Saturday was just the third over the last 23 meetings. The Rockets have been excellent at payback as they are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games revenging a loss while going 18-7 ATS in their last 25 road games after allowing 115 points or more. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 13-26 ATS in its last 39 games after scoring 115 or more points in its previous game. 10* (509) Houston Rockets |
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04-22-18 | Cavs +1 v. Pacers | Top | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the Cleveland CAVALIERS for our NBA Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Cavaliers are once again in a hole as they lost Game Three and as the series goes on, the games following a loss become that much more important. This series has been made up of runs by both sides as the Pacers had it in Game One, the Cavaliers had it in Game Two, and they shared it in Game Three, with Indiana having it last to take the series lead. Cleveland has been down 3-1 before and came back to win but that is not an ideal situation but the pressure here is on Indiana as a 2-2 series going back to Cleveland puts the Pacers in a bad spot. The Cleveland defense has stepped it up in this series and it is the offense that has looked uneven as LeBron James has been the only consistent threat thus far. There is concern that point guard George Hill could mis this game but that would not be a bad thing as he brings nothing to the table. He is averaging 8.7ppg and 1.7 apg in this series which are horrible for a point guard and when he was out earlier in the season, Cleveland went 4-1 with the lone loss coming by two points at Philadelphia. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 103 or more ppg, after a win by three points or less. This situation is 93-49 ATS (65.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (507) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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04-22-18 | Raptors v. Wizards +2.5 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON WIZARDS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. We saw how good Washington can be when both John Wall and Bradley Beal are playing well together, and more importantly, on the floor together. They scored a combined 56 points on 52.4 percent shooting on Friday after both sat out for long stretches in Game Two because of foul trouble. The home floor energized the entire team in Game Three and we expect that to carry over where the Wizards are now 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home. Toronto can take over this series with a win and while its 24-17 road record looks good, it is skewed. Going back to December 26, the Raptors are 14-10 in their last 24 road games which is respectable, but they are 11-1 in that stretch against non-playoff teams while going 3-9 against teams that are still playing. Following the Friday loss, the Raptors are 6-11 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record including 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record and they have a situation on their side as we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that have covered six or seven of their last eight games, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 76-39 ATS (66.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (506) Washington Wizards |
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04-21-18 | Rockets v. Wolves +6.5 | Top | 105-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. Like the Wizards in their series against a No. 1 seed, the Timberwolves have their backs against the wall, but a return home should energize them and get them back into the series. Houston showed its depth in Game One as James Harden scored only 12 points on 2-18 shooting, but the Rockets were still able to win by 20 points. Second chance points were a big part of that game for Houston and that has to change and the one player than can turn that around is Karl Anthony-Towns. He has been held in check as he has scored just 13 points combined but has decent on the boards but can still improve there as well. The Timberwolves are 30-11 at home and while two of those losses came against Houston, the rockets were unconscious in both of those games from long range, going a combined 38-82 (46.3 percent) and we do not see that continuing here. This is the first home playoff game in 13 years for Minnesota so to say it will be a crazy atmosphere is an understatement. The Timberwolves are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games while the Rockets have failed to cover their last four road games and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight game against the Western Conference. Here, we play on home underdogs after a game where they failed to cover the spread, playing their third game or less games in 10 days. This situation is 105-65 ATS (61.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (722) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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04-21-18 | 76ers -3 v. Heat | Top | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Saturday Afternoon Dominator. The Sixers had their 17-game winning streak snapped at home in Game Two of this series because of a memorable performance from Dwyane Wade off the bench as he poured in 28 points, the first time he has scored more than 13 points since early March. He did not come close to backing that up in Game Three and no one on this team has the ability to step up right now. With Joel Embiid back on the floor, Philadelphia showed what a dominant team it has become as it shot 50.6 percent from the floor in its 20-point win on Thursday in Game Three. Miami did defeat the Sixers at home twice during the regular season and a main reason for that was the play of Hassan Whiteside, but he has been nonexistent in this series as he has scored a combined 11 points in the three games as he continues to deal with foul troubles and a place in the doghouse with head coach Eric Spoelstra. The Sixers are 22-11 ATS in their last 33 games coming off a road win and 21-11 ATS in their 32 games this season coming off a double-digit win. Additionally, we play against home teams in April games coming off a home loss by 20 or more points. This situation is 41-15 ATS (73.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (717) Philadelphia 76ers |
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04-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards -1 | Top | 103-122 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON WIZARDS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. Washington has dug itself into a 0-2 hole in this series with tonight being a must win situation. We saw the Spurs and Blazers unable to get back into their respective series, but Washington is in a very doable situation as it heads back home. The Toronto offense has been the story of this series as it has averaged 122 ppg on 52.4 percent shooting which has covered up the fact that Washington has been pretty solid on that side of the ball (109.6 points per 100 possessions, fifth-best out of the 16 playoff teams through two games). This is excellent considering Bradley Beal has been absent through the two games and we should see him get his game going tonight. Letting Toronto win the first two games comfortably was surprising as while the Wizards struggled all season with teams with records under .500, they knocked off nine playoff-bound opponents after the All Star Break. Toronto has been a strong road team this season, but the Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Additionally, we play on home teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off two or more consecutive road losses, playing a winning team. This situation is 80-43 ATS (65 percent) since 1996. 10* (714) Washington Wizards |
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04-19-18 | Warriors v. Spurs +3.5 | Top | 110-97 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN ANTONIO SPURS for our NBA Thursday Enforcer. Golden St. has dominated the first two games of this series, winning by 21 and 15 points and it is a big public consensus again tonight as not many are giving the Spurs any chance in this series to win a game. This is the game to win as San Antonio heads home where it is 33-8 on the season including 11 straight wins. This recent winning streak includes victories against eight current playoff teams although the win over Golden St. does come with an asterisk as none of the big four played, but all the others were legit. The Spurs offense will have to get better and it has been much more efficient at home this season and they have been a great bounce back team as they are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 home games after three straight games where they shot 42 percent or worse from the floor. Despite the two recent covers, Golden St. is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 while going 3-11 ATS in its 14 games this season coming off two or more consecutive home wins. Additionally, we play on home teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 where the line is +3 to -3, coming off two or more consecutive road losses, playing a winning team. This situation is 80-42 ATS (65.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (528) San Antonio Spurs |
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04-18-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -7.5 | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the Cleveland CAVALIERS for our NBA Wednesday Supreme Annihilator. We won with Indiana on Sunday in a wire-to-wire victory, but we will be backing the Cavaliers tonight in a bounce back situation. This goes along with the bounce angle, or zig-zag theory, in the NBA playoffs which has been an up and down philosophy over the years. The theory is to back the team that lost the previous game and while it was highly successful years ago, linesmakers have adjusted more recently so these zig-zag spots have to be chosen more carefully. One of those is tonight. The loser of Game One is just 1-4 ATS in Game Two thus far but tonight we have a situation that involves reverse line movement. As of Wednesday morning, over 60 percent of tickets and money are on the Pacers, yet the line is moving the other way and backing the lesser bet team has paid off in the postseason despite what may seem like a bad line. Since 2005, playoff favorites receiving 40 percent or fewer of spread tickets have gone 31-17-2 ATS (64.6%) when there is reverse line movement, which is the case for Cleveland. The Cavaliers cannot shoot any worse than they did in Game One as they shot 38.5 percent from the floor including a ridiculous 25 percent from outside of five feet. You will hear some media talking about how Indiana shot lights out but that was not the case it shot below its season average and that was against what is considered a bad defense. It comes down to Cleveland shooting tonight. Additionally, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off two or more consecutive home losses, in April games. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) since 1996. 10* (518) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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04-17-18 | Wizards +7.5 v. Raptors | Top | 119-130 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON WIZARDS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. Washington played Toronto tough for three quarters but a flagrant foul by Mike Scott early in the fourth quarter gave the Raptors a spark which led to a 7-0 run that eventually put the game away. The win snapped a 10-game losing streak of series opening losses so while that gives Toronto some positive momentum, the Wizards are in a good spot to keep another game close and this time throughout the entire contest. A big key for Washington is John Wall as he put up decent numbers in Game One, but he needs to be more efficient. He needed 20 field-goal attempts to get his 23 points, and his 15 assists came attached to five turnovers. One of the biggest differences in Game One was the shooting from the perimeter, as the Raptors doubled the Wizards with a franchise playoff best 16 made three-pointers on 30 attempts. We expect that percentage to come down in Game Two. Despite the win and cover, the Raptors are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. Additionally, we play on road underdogs after failing to cover five or six of their last seven games against the spread going up against an opponent after having covered two of their last three games against the spread. This situation is 178-114 (61 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (705) Washington Wizards |
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04-15-18 | Pacers +7 v. Cavs | Top | 98-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS for our NBA Sunday Star Attraction. Many are predicting the Cavaliers to once again make it our of the east and while that is not a bold statement, the gap between the Cavaliers and every other team has shrunk. They are laying a number they do not deserve to be laying as the power rankings do not call for it and neither does the Cleveland history from this season as it is 3-14 ATS as a home favorite between 6.5 and 12 points. The Cavaliers have 19 wins over top 16 teams in the league and that is tied for third fewest among all playoff teams (Indiana has 21). The Pacers bring some momentum into the postseason as they have won seven of their last 10 which includes the season ending loss where the starter sat and going back, they are 14-7 since the start of March and 18-9 since mid-February. Indiana held its own against the Cavaliers this season, winning three of the four meetings which could make this a very interesting series and one that will not be as easy as some may think and a lot of that will come down to the poor Cleveland defense. Here, we play against home favorites after allowing 100 points or more in five straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 59-26 (69.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (511) Indiana Pacers |
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04-14-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 97-95 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. We won with the Blazers in their final regular season game as they were able to lock down the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference but more importantly, they put an end to their four-game losing streak. It was a difficult stretch leading up to Wednesday as seven of their previous nine games were on the road where they finished 21-20 on the season. Portland has to take advantage of its home floor and it has been hot, covering 20 of their last 27 home games. Additionally, they are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games against teams allowing 106 or more ppg with the average scoring margin being more than 10 ppg. New Orleans won its final five games of the regular season to nail down a playoff spot. Three of those games were on the road and while a win over Golden St. was good, the Warriors have not been the same team. The Pelicans lost their previous three road games against playoff teams and while the road has been good overall, they are just 7-22 ATS in their last 29 road games coming off a double-digit win. They fall into a negative situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a divisional win by 20 points or more going up against an opponent off a home win. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (508) Portland Trailblazers |
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04-11-18 | Jazz v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. Several games tonight have playoff implications but only four of those involve both teams playing for something. This is one of those as Portland and Utah are playing for seeding and while it is more important for Utah since a loss and a win by Oklahoma City drops it into fifth place, we feel it is bigger for the Blazers just from a mental standpoint. They have lost their last four games although all of those were on the road including the final three against playoff teams. It was not that long ago that the Blazers won 13 consecutive games so ending the regular season on a 4-8 run is the last thing they want. They are 27-13 at home and the Blazers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning straight up record. This is a huge game for the Jazz as mentioned but they could not be in a worse spot due to who they are playing and coming off a 40-point win over the Warriors last night. Utah has won six straight games to get into this position, but this is the first back-to-back over this stretch. While the Jazz are 7-0 in the second of a back-to-back at home, they are just 3-5 on the road and they have failed to cover their last four games playing with no rest. Additionally, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a home loss of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more. This situation is 114-62 ATS (64.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (720) Portland Trailblazers |
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04-10-18 | Celtics v. Wizards -7 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON WIZARDS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. There are two teams in action tonight that are playing for something as Philadelphia needs to win to move back a game in front of Cleveland for the No. 3 seed while Washington is looking to get out of the No. 8 spot. The Wizards are a half-game behind Miami and a win here and tomorrow against Atlanta could vault them up as the Heat face Toronto in their final game. The No. 7 spot is big as that teams would face Boston in the first round with the Celtics being the weakest of the top four teams with home court advantage. Washington could use some momentum as well as it has lost four straight games, all of which took place since John Wall returned but that is a bit skewed as he rested in two of those and the other two were on the road in Cleveland and Houston. Boston is playing out the string of the regular season as it remains without Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart and it comes into tonight losers of three of its last four games. This is an instance where we are seeing reverse line movement as the public is on Boston and it is the biggest road consensus of the night, yet we are seeing the number move the other way. Going back, Washington is 83-53 ATS in its last 136 games coming off an upset loss as a favorite. 10* (506) Washington Wizards |
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04-09-18 | Pelicans v. Clippers +7.5 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS for our NBA Monday Star Attraction. The Western Conference playoff race is going to come down to the final day of the regular season as five teams are fighting for four spots while only the top two seeds know their positioning. This is obviously a must win game for New Orleans which is currently tied for fifth place with San Antonio and Oklahoma City, but a must win is hardly a guarantee let alone a cover. These must win teams have their prices severely inflated due to the situation as four other teams that need to win are favored by double-digits while the Pelicans are heavy road favorites. To their credit, they have been solid as road favorites this season but 10 of 12 wins have come against teams with losing records. The Clippers are missing the playoffs for the first time in seven years following their loss to Denver on Saturday. While they may be feeling the letdown from that, what makes this play a special one is the fact that it is a nationally televised game so there is no way they will lie down. They fall into a successful situation as well as we play against road favorites after a win by six points or less going up against an opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more in four straight games. This situation is 48-24 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (718) Los Angeles Clippers |
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04-08-18 | Pacers -2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. The Pacers are in fifth place in the Eastern Conference with no chance to move down but they still have a shot at the No. 4 spot which would be huge. Right now, they would face the Cavaliers in the first round without home court advantage, but flipping is ideal and while the chances are slim, they are still there. Indiana is coming off one of its worst games offensively as it scored just 73 points against the Raptors on Friday, so of for nothing else, it wants to get back in the groove as this is one of the best offenses in the NBA. The Pacers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following a loss by 15 or more points. Charlotte meanwhile is coming off one its best games offensively as it put up 137 points against Orlando on Friday. That snapped a four-game slide, but this is a team playing for nothing at this point. Charlotte is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games when playing against a team with a winning record and it falls into a negative situation where we play against home underdogs after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. This situation is 85-38 ATS (69.1 percent) since 1996. 10* (503) Indiana Pacers |
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04-06-18 | Cavs v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 130-132 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. The Cavaliers won a huge game last night as they came back from 16 points down in the final quarter to move into sole possession of third place in the Eastern Conference. While that is the main story, Cleveland was down by 17 points at one point which no one will talk about, but it needs to be brought up, especially in the second game of a back-to-back. The Sixers have won 12 straight games which put them into a tie for third place at the time before last night and now they host their biggest game of the season. A win here leapfrogs them over Cleveland into the No. 3 spot with a very favorable schedule in their remaining three games so that means hosting a first round series. The Sixers have beaten a lot of bad teams during this winning streak, but they also have their share of quality wins and Cleveland has played the third easiest schedule in the league. The Sixers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games against teams allowing 106 or more ppg and they fall into a situation where we play against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 where the line is +3 to -3 after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 41-18 ATS (69.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (508) Philadelphia 76ers |
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04-05-18 | Warriors v. Pacers +3 | Top | 106-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS for our NBA Thursday Enforcer. Golden St. has won three straight games as it is getting healthier heading into the playoffs starting next week. Staying healthy is the concern now with four regular season games remaining as the Warriors are locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, so the effort could be lacking while the starting players minutes could be knocked down some. Indiana is still playing for something as it is currently in the fifth spot in the Eastern Conference, two games behind Philadelphia for the fourth spot. If the Pacers stay here and the Sixers move ahead of the Cavaliers, a first round series against Cleveland looms so Indiana wants to get out of this spot and it will likely mean winning out. The Pacers are 26-13 at home and going back, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning straight up record and they fall into a negative situation where we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a win by six points or less going up against an opponent after a loss by six points or less. This situation is 54-23 ATS (70.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (702) Indiana Pacers |
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04-04-18 | Grizzlies +13.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 95-123 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. It has been a rough stretch for the Pelicans which have dropped four straight games to remain in eighth place in the Western Conference and while they have been unable to move up, more importantly they have allowed the Nuggets and Clippers to cut the gap to a half-game and a game and a half respectively. This has turned into a must win game for New Orleans, but it has not turned into a must win game that needs to be won by double-digits. It has been a brutal season for Memphis and based on the overall record and what has been at stake, the pointspreads have been overinflated which is the case here as well. The Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS this season as double-digit underdogs and have covered four straight games against winning teams. Additionally, two situations are in play. First, we play against home favorites after three straight losses by six points or less. This situation is 47-20 (70.1 percent) since 1996. Second, we play on underdogs of 10 or more points that average between 98 and 102 going up against teams allowing 102 ppg, after allowing 105 points or more. This situation is 41-14 (74.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (509) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-03-18 | Spurs v. Clippers +2 | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. The Western Conference playoff race is wide open as four games separate fourth place and tenth place with this game featuring both teams on each end of that group. San Antonio has won eight of its last 10 games to take over fourth place, but it has to be noted that those eight wins came at home and the two losses came on the road. The Spurs are 14-24 on the road but they come in as road favorites despite that. The Clippers are two games out of eighth place with five games remaining with two of those games coming against teams they will have to pass, Denver and New Orleans. That gives them a great opportunity to make a move but cannot afford to lose more ground before then. Four of the last five games are at home where they are 21-16 and they fall into the same situation as the other game where we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 having covered six or seven of their last eight games against the spread, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 74-38 ATS (66.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (726) Los Angeles Clippers |
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04-03-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -1 | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS for our NBA Tuesday Supreme Annihilator. Boston heads back on the road following a six-game winning streak and two-day layoff as it looks to close the gap with the Raptors which play in Cleveland tonight. The winning streak has been impressive with four victories coming against current playoff teams and all of this has been done without their best player Kyrie Irving. While going after first place is important, this game is much more important for the Bucks. Milwaukee is currently sitting in eighth place in the Eastern Conference and it can all but lock up a playoff spot with a victory as it leads ninth place Detroit by four games with five games left for each team. The Bucks are 23-15 at home and going back, they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Milwaukee falls into a great situation where we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 having covered six or seven of their last eight games against the spread, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 74-38 ATS (66.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (712) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-02-18 | Michigan +7 v. Villanova | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our National Championship Enforcer. Both Michigan and Villanova covered their numbers on Saturday as favorites and with the public flocking to the Wildcats after their dominating performance over Kansas, we are on the underdog tonight as the Wolverines are seeing a 12-point swing on the number. If Villanova goes 18-40 from long range again tonight, it will not lose but we do not anticipate another effort like that. Michigan has the defense to not let that happen and not necessarily for the actual three-point shooting defense but for the way it can attack the offense in allowing fewer attempts. During the Michigan 14-game winning streak, only twice has an opponent attempted more than its average from three-point range and the Wolverines have allowed only 27.8 percent shooting. They had it on display on Saturday as Loyola-Chicago came in averaging 18.4 three-point attempts per game and put up only 10 while making just one of those. Michigan has no issues with playing against teams that are elite as they have covered their last six games against teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better while going 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games against teams that shooting 45 percent or better from the floor. Additionally, they are 6-1 ATS this season as dogs of three or more points. 10* (601) Michigan Wolverines |
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04-01-18 | Pistons -1 v. Nets | Top | 108-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT PISTONS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. The Pistons are hanging on by a thread for their playoff lives as they have won four straight games and with the Miami loss last night, they are four and a half games out of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. Detroit won against the Knicks last night and while this is a back-to-back, there is no travel involved which makes it a lot easier. The Pistons have struggled on the road for the most part this season but that has mostly been against the top teams which is not the case tonight. We played against Brooklyn last night and it defeated the Heat in overtime for its third straight win over Miami. It also accomplished the Florida sweep as it defeated Orlando three nights earlier. The Nets are tied for the third worst record in the Eastern Conference and seventh overall and they have not won three straight games all season, going 0-5 the five previous times they won consecutive games. They are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams with a losing road record while the Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing straight up record. Additionally, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road win by three points or less, playing on back-to-back days. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (515) Detroit Pistons |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the VILLANOVA WILDCATS for our CBB Final Four Enforcer. The only two No. 1 seeds to make it to the Sweet 16 square off in the Final Four and Kansas is the public consensus based on what is considered an inflated line. Typically, a battle between top seeds would have a shorter line but this is a game where Villanova has distinct advantages as we have seen thus far as it has cruised in all four games. Both teams rely on the three-point shot as a big part of their offense as they both shoot over 40 percent from long range. Villanova has a much more diverse offense, so it is the team that can survive a cold spell from outside should it occur. The Wildcats free throw shooting can be a difference as well if it is a close game late as they are hitting 83 percent over their last five games and they are No. 8 in the nation overall. They also have an extra advantage over the Jayhawks from an experience perspective since they already know what kind of pressure comes playing on a big stage like the one they are about to see in San Antonio. Kansas has had a tougher time as it had to deal with a pesky Penn team to open the tournament and it has escaped the last three games with four-point wins in each. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game involving two teams that are outscoring opponents by eight or more ppg, after allowing 75 points or more three straight games. This situation is 56-21 ATS (72.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (814) Villanova Wildcats |
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03-31-18 | Nets v. Heat -7.5 | Top | 110-109 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. Miami has won two straight games to remain in a tie for seventh place in the Eastern Conference and this is the spot it wants to head into the postseason. Avoiding eighth place would mean missing Toronto and playing Boston which is a preferred matchup against the banged-up Celtics. This is the second of five straight games against four of the five worst teams in the conference before closing the season against Oklahoma City and Toronto. The Heat have covered seven of their last eight home games. Brooklyn is coming off a win as it defeated Orlando on Wednesday and you have to go all the way back to January 31st to find the last time the Nets defeated a playoff bound team. The last time they defeated a playoff bound team on the road was back on December 29th and it happened to come in this building which is the first of two straight wins over the Heat and bring into play a huge situation. We play on home teams that are revenging two consecutive losses as a favorite, off two or more consecutive home wins. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (808) Miami Heat |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5.5 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our CBB Final Four Supreme Annihilator. We have been on the wrong side of Loyola-Chicago is each of the last two games, but the Cinderella season comes to an end this Saturday as the Ramblers have their worst matchup of the tournament thus far. They have not had to defend a stretch-five player like Michigan 6-foot-11 forward Moe Wagner, a likely NBA future player. Both teams shoot the ball well with excellent ball movement and both play tough defense, but this game comes down to taking care of the ball. Michigan does an excellent job protecting the ball, with the third-lowest turnover rate in the country. Loyola-Chicago can get sloppy at times, as it did in the first half of its Sweet 16 win over Nevada and it ranks 219th in turnover rate. Michigan loves to push the ball off turnovers and this is where it can have a big edge. Overall, the Wolverines have the better numbers in assist/turnover ratio on both ends of the floor. This is also a game where experience can come into play and while the Wolverine players do not have it, it is there on the sidelines. Michigan has arguably the best coach in the country in John Beilein and this is his second Final Four in six years as his team lost to Louisville in the National Championship in 2012-13. Michigan is 10-2 ATS this season against teams shooting 48 percent or better while going 13-5 ATS this season against teams allowing 42 percent shooting or better. 10* (812) Michigan Wolverines |
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03-30-18 | San Francisco v. North Texas -4.5 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our CBB Friday Enforcer. We had North Texas in Game Two of the CBI Championship and we are going to back the Mean Green for the same reasons so pardon the regurgitation of the analysis. In Game One, San Francisco was 12-18 from beyond the arc in the first half and to put that number in perspective, it had 16 made field goals in total through the first half. The Dons are typically not a good three-point shooting team to begin with and overall, they are ranked No. 247 in the country in effective field goal percentage while North Texas is ranked No. 80 in effective field goal defense so we can toss the Monday performances out. In the second game, San Francisco came back to earth as expected as it shot just 42 percent, but a shocker was that North Texas hit just 39.7 percent of its shots including going 2-18 from long range. They dominated the boards however and should again tonight which mean that just an average shooting night means a runaway win. San Francisco is just 4-8 on the road with those four wins coming against four of the bottom five teams from the WCC, none of which had winning records. The Mean Green are 13-6 at home with the four of the losses since December coming by 2, 2, 2 and 3 points and a fifth coming in overtime. 10* (520) North Texas Mean Green |