Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-08-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. NY Giants -3 | Top | 2-24 | Win | 102 | 89 h 30 m | Show |
Just when you thought the Giants season was unraveling once again, they came through with two big wins at the end of the season to capture the NFC East and make it into the playoffs. Even though it is only two games, they are playing at a high level and last week against the Cowboys, they outgained Dallas by 137 total yards as Eli Manning outdueled Tony Romo and the rushing game was clearly in their favor. We give them a big edge playing in this stadium for the fourth straight week.
Atlanta had a disappointing season as it finished 10-6 after going 13-3 a season ago. The Falcons defeated only one team that is currently in the playoffs, Detroit, and went 1-4 overall against current playoff teams. They finished .500 on the road this season which isn't horrible but losses against Tampa Bay and Chicago were not good while wins against Seattle and Carolina were closer than what should have been. The biggest road win was against the Colts which is not saying much. The Giants rushing offense has been abysmal all season as they are dead last in the league but things have been moving in the right direction. They have surpassed 100 yards in four of their last five games after doing so just four times in their first 11 games. A healthy Ahmad Bradshaw has been the difference. Even though he has not been gaining many yards, he has given Brandon Jacobs a break who has been able to be more effective with fewer carries and a great ypc average. The Falcons rushing defense has been the exact opposite. They fared well early on but they have gotten worse as they have allowed four of their last five opponents to rush for over 100 yards, allowing an average of 126.8 ypg. That is not a good trend heading into the playoffs and neither is the passing defense that has been torched in three of its last four games. Atlanta is 20th in the league in passing defense and it will square off against one of the most potent passing offenses in the league. Atlanta has gone over 375 yards of offense in each of its last two games and that is an important number as the Falcons are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games while the Giants are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games versus teams averaging 375 or more ypg. The Giants fall into a great situation as we play on home teams coming off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 38-14 ATS (73.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (106) New York Giants |
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01-07-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Houston Texans -3 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 69 h 53 m | Show | |
It is too bad that the Texans lost so many key players to injury this season as it could have been a really special one. Nonetheless, they are in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history and they will make the most of it, at least in the first round. The fact that this game is at home is huge as the atmosphere will be something special. Houston comes in riding a three-game losing streak which is something they did not want to take place but players are saying it's a new season and all of that is in the rearview mirror.
The Bengals were able to sneak into the playoffs with a 9-7 record and after a surprisingly solid start, they have definitely faded toward the end. Cincinnati went 3-5 over the second half of the season, only beating two really bad teams, 2-14 St. Louis and 4-12 Cleveland, plus 8-8 Arizona. The best team that the Bengals beat this season was Tennessee, as they scored 17 unanswered second-half point to take a 24-17 victory. Overall, the Bengals went 0-6 against teams in the top ten. Houston has the better players at the key positions in this matchup. Two big ones are at running back and wide receiver as the Texans will utilize Arian Foster and Andre Johnson on offense to help shoulder the load for quarterback T.J. Yates. The Bengals have Cedric Benson and A.J. Green at those respective positions but neither are in the same class. This is important because in the first meeting this season, the Texans outgained Cincinnati by 127 yards and Johnson was absent and Foster was limited. Houston has the better offense by 52.2 ypg and the better defense by 30.5 ypg and that is a fairly big differential for two playoff teams with a spread as low as this one. The Bengals have surpassed 400 yards only twice this season and they have not gone over 336 yards on offense in five straight games. Houston has been great on defense all season and with defensive coordinator Wade Philips back, they are even stronger. The Texans are ranked second in total defense and fourth in scoring defense. Quarterback Andy Dalton has been good this year but has tailed off. He posted three 100+ passer rating prior to the Bengals bye week but only once over the last 10 games. To his credit he was better on the road than at home but this is a completely different atmosphere as the playoffs are a different animal. Houston falls into a great situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 in conference games, off a home loss by three points or less. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (102) Houston Texans |
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01-01-12 | Dallas Cowboys v. NY Giants -2.5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 75 h 21 m | Show | |
We won with the Giants in the first meeting and while that may have been considered a fortunate win, it shows the problems going on with the Cowboys. New York was in a must win spot last week against the Jets and it came out as focused as it has been all season and I expect a repeat of that with the division on the line. Playing at home is a huge edge and we are catching a good number on top of it. The giants could easily be favored by more than a field goal and the thinking is that it will stick.
Dallas looked as though it quit last week against the Eagles and it really didn't matter since the Giants had already won. The Cowboys knew a loss there and a win this week still meant a divisional title and whether that was the thinking remains a question. Nonetheless, if the Cowboys win, they are in but this team is so banged up right now, they are arguably the most unhealthy they have been all season. The hand injury to Tony Romo is the big concern and while he will play, he is not in good shape. The big question is can he handle the pressure? Even if he does, that does not mean a Cowboys win. In the first meeting, he was 21-for-31 with four touchdown passes when the Cowboys' defense melted down against the Giants so he can play brilliantly and still lose. He has had share of problems in playoff games, going 1-3 in his career, and while this is not considered a playoff game, it is as close as you can get as the winner goes on and the loser goes home. The Giants defense should be out for blood against a wounded quarterback. They played one of their best games last week and a lot of that is due to health. Justin Tuck played at a higher level than we |
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01-01-12 | Buffalo Bills v. New England Patriots -10.5 | Top | 21-49 | Win | 100 | 72 h 7 m | Show |
The Patriots need to win to grab the overall top seed in the AFC and the situation could not be better for us this week. First, let's start with the scheduling of the games this week. Should the Steelers and Ravens both lose, the Patriots get the first round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs and the big factor here is that both Pittsburgh and Baltimore do not start until after the Patriots are done which means New England will be doing no scoreboard watching. They will be going out to win.
We played the Patriots last week against the Dolphins and after falling behind 17-0, New England came back to take the lead and were covering but a late Miami touchdown game the Dolphins the backdoor cover. The outright win was obviously big for New England and an outright this week is just as big. I don't expect a repeat of last week where Tom Brady got off to a horrible start and had to play catch up as he will be more prepared to get off to a quick start and coast to an easy win. We also played the Bills last week and they played one of their best games in a long time as they throttled the Broncos in their final home game of the season. It snapped a seven-game losing streak and while one can argue the Bills have some momentum going into this week, it won't be enough. Buffalo won its road opener this season at Kansas City and since then, it has dropped its last six games away from home with three of the last four losses resulting in blowout defeats. Adding to the incentive for New England is the revenge factor as Buffalo won the first meeting this season, snapping a 15-game losing streak to the Patriots. Brady was horrible and he knows it. "Hopefully there's no repeat performance," Brady said of his four-interception Week 3 horror show. "When you turn the ball over four times in a game, it's damn near impossible to win. We found that out the hard way." The Bills have been ball-hawkers all season with 20 interceptions but they will not be so fortunate this time. The Bills injury list is now bigger as center Kraig Urbik and left tackle Demetrius Bell suffered serious injuries last week and heading into the season finale they have just six healthy offensive linemen. That will be a big benefit for the Patriots defense. The Patriots are 17-5 ATS in the last two weeks under head coach Bill Belichick while going 12-3 ATS in 15 games revenging a same season loss. This includes a perfect 7-0 ATS record when revenging a loss as a road favorite. 10* (326) New England Patriots |
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01-01-12 | Tennessee Titans v. Houston Texans +3 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 68 h 51 m | Show |
This is a must win game for Tennessee as it is still mathematically alive for a playoff berth but it needs a lot to happen. The Titans would clinch the sixth seed with a win and a Bengals loss and either a Jets win or both a Broncos win and Raiders win (but not all three). Good luck Tennessee. Because of the must win situation here, the linesmakers have made Tennessee a favorite and this is never a good thing as bad teams that need to win as a chalk usually don't.
While Houston cannot move up or down in the standings, don't think this game isn't big for the Texans. They have lost their last two games, which has happened to coincide with the absence of defensive coordinator Wade Philips who is back this week, and they do not want to go into the playoffs riding a three-game losing streak. The Texans could feasibly sit their starters as to avoid more injuries but that won't happen. Houston needs to regain its swagger and build confidence heading into the playoffs. After losing a tough game to New Orleans, the Titans went to Indianapolis and handed the Colts their first victory of the season. A team that does that should not even be considered for the playoffs. Tennessee did bounce back last week against the Jaguars but that is not saying much. The Titans last five wins have come against teams that are a combined 20-55 with four of those currently 4-11 or worse. The exception was against Buffalo which was in the midst of a seven-game losing streak. The Titans defense has been hit or miss and the worst game of the season came against the Texans where they allowed 518 total yards. Yes, Houston quarterback Matt Schaub was playing in that game but he was not the difference maker. Houston rolled over Tennessee in the first meeting this season and the top performance was not from an injured player that is now sitting out but it was Arian Foster who racked up 234 total yards and three touchdowns. Expect another big game from Foster. The players know what's at stake this week. "We have to go into this game with the mind frame of winning it so we can have that good taste in our mouths going into the playoffs," defensive end Antonio Smith said. Quarterback T.J. Yates stated the same and he knows he needs to play well heading into the playoffs. While this is a revenge game for the Titans, they are just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games revenging a home loss and this includes a 0-7 ATS record in road games revenging a home loss by 14 or more points. 10* (316) Houston Texans |
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12-26-11 | Atlanta Falcons +7 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 16-45 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is a big game for both sides. Based on what the Packers did on Sunday night, the Saints could still be in line for the number one seed but just as important is the number two seed which gets a first round bye. On the other side, Atlanta is still fighting for a playoff berth and it will lock one up with a win. If the season ended now, Atlanta would be the sixth seed and end up back in New Orleans in one of the Wild Card games. With wins in four of five games and seven of nine, Atlanta is again playing very well.
The Falcons lost the first meeting against New Orleans this season in overtime and it will be known for the call that head coach Mike Smith made on fourth down which cost them the game. The fact that the game went into overtime was not a big surprise as this has been a very close series as each of the last six meetings have been decided by a possession with five of those being decided by four points or fewer. The teams know each other very well so it comes as no surprise. The Falcons offensive line will play a big role in this game and are in better shape this tome around. In the first meeting, left tackle Will Svitek was making his third start this season and right guard Joe Hawley, who has given up 4.5 sacks, was making just his second NFL start there. They allowed just one sacks and two hits on quarterback Matt Ryan in the first meeting. The Saints are giving up 109.9 ypg on the ground, which ranks 13th in the league but they are allowing 4.9 ypc which is tied for 28th in the league. Good news for the Falcons defense is the return of two cornerbacks as Brett Grimes, who missed three games, is set to return from knee surgery while Kelvin Hayden, who has missed four games, is questionable but could also be ready. That is obviously a big boost going against the Saints potent offense. Quarterback Drew Brees is on a record setting pace for passing yards and he is playing some awesome football now. Stopping him is impossible but slowing him down is feasible. This is obviously a revenge game for the Falcons and while road revenge is tricky, the Falcons fall into a great scenario. Play on road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are revenging a same season loss. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Saints are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games. Atlanta is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games against teams allowing 4.5 or more ypc. 10* (131) Atlanta Falcons |
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12-24-11 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys -1 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -118 | 75 h 12 m | Show |
We have seen this line drop from an opening of three points down as low as 1.5 points in some places. Laying anything below three points in a divisional game is huge especially when there is so much on the line as is the case here. Dallas woke up last Saturday after a run of lackluster games including that deflating loss against the Giants. Even though it was just a win over Tampa Bay, I think that type of victory is just what was needed for the Cowboys as they head into the final two gamers of the season.
The Eagles, which were pretty much done at one point when it fell to Seattle three games back, are now right back in the playoff picture. They were not even supposed to be in this spot but after a slow start, they have regrouped and are playing some solid football. And here we once again have the public on their backs as well. Philadelphia has struggled over the last two months of putting consecutive solid efforts together and I don't think it happens here either. We have an interesting dynamic in play for the Eagles. They are third in total offense in the league but just nine in scoring offense and they are 10th in total defense but just 19th in scoring defense. That shows they are moving the ball and not giving up yards but the points are going against them. This comes down to turnovers. They have only one game this season where they have not turned it over (Dallas) and have turned it over at least twice in 11 of 14 games including at least three turnovers seven times. The Cowboys have not forgotten the game in Philadelphia from earlier this season as they were trounced by the Eagles 34-7 while getting outgained by 228 total yards. How bad was it? It was Dallas' worst offensive performance of the season as it managed only 267 total yards and it was its second worst defensive performance, yielding 495 total yards. While some will argue that a repeat is possible, I don't see it happening with the Cowboys heading home for revenge in their last regular season home game of the year. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while going 0-6 ATS in their last six games after scoring 17 or more points in the first half in two straight games. Dallas meanwhile falls into a situation where we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, after the first month of the season. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (128) Dallas Cowboys |
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12-24-11 | San Diego Chargers +3 v. Detroit Lions | 10-38 | Loss | -125 | 75 h 44 m | Show | |
Detroit certainly has some momentum on its side following a huge road win at Oakland last week where it scored twice in the final five minutes to pull out a much needed win. The Lions head home and can clinch a playoff berth with a victory but it certainly won't be easy as it faces the up and coming (again) Chargers. You have to give credit to the Lions for not folding after falling behind by 13 points late against the Raiders but the defense remains a big concern as it has allowed 446.7 ypg over its last three games.
As mentioned last week, the Chargers are making a December run which comes as no surprise as we have seen it for years after coming out slow the first few months. While it may be too little, too late, San Diego is not out of the playoff picture just yet. If the Chargers win out and if the Broncos lose out, San Diego wins the division. They also have an outside shot at an AFC Wild Card spot but with only one spot left, it cannot be concerning itself about going that route. San Diego is two games under .500 on the road but it remains one of the best teams in the league even if the record does not indicate that. Currently, the Chargers are ranked seventh in total offense (15th in rushing offense, sixth in passing offense and fifth in scoring offense). Defensively, San Diego is ranked 11th (21st in rushing defense, sixth in passing defense and 20th in scoring defense). The Chargers are one of only three teams currently ranked in the top 11 in both offense and defense. Quarterback Philip Rivers is having one of his worst seasons but he has gotten better of late and his momentum and confidence will be important. After throwing 17 interceptions through 10 games, he has not had a pick in his last four games and he has tossed eight touchdowns over that stretch to go along with a 115.7 passer rating. He has nearly identical passer ratings at home and on the road this season and after eating up one of the best defenses last week, his success should continue. The Lions went 4-0-1 ATS in their first five games this season but they have gone only 2-6-1 since then and the lack of recent covering puts the Chargers into a great scenario where we play against favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games, in the second half of the season. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, San Diego is 23-9-3 ATS in its last 35 games as an underdog. 8* (123) San Diego Chargers |
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12-24-11 | Denver Broncos v. Buffalo Bills +3 | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 72 h 43 m | Show | |
A once promising season has gone completely south for the Bills as they have dropped seven straight games after a 5-2 start. Interestingly, Bills futures tickets are resting on this game as their season win total of five has one last chance to get surpassed as next week, Buffalo travels to New England in a revenge game with a top seed at stake so we won't be giving them much of a chance there. The Bills need to close with some sort of positive at home and this is the final chance.
Denver had its six-game winning streak snapped at home last week against the Patriots ad now the Broncos are laying chalk on the road despite a very non-dominating run. They have gone 6-1 over their last seven games but they have been outgained by 114 total yards over that stretch. There have been three overtime victories along with three other wins by a possession or less so asking Denver to win as a road favorite is no doubt asking for trouble, no matter if a win gets them into the playoffs. The Bills have been plagued with injuries all season long which has led to their demise. While making excuses for losing should rarely happen, the injuries along with a brutal second half schedule have played a big part. They have played four teams which are right in the playoff hunt (Jets twice) while facing a resurgent Dolphins team twice as well. Buffalo has been outgained in only four of those seven recent losses and only once was it dominated and that came at Dallas. The Tim Tebow miraculous ending run came to an end and I don't think it picks up here. I do like the fact that the Broncos have been winning in a style that is not popular in the NFL along with a defense that has completely turned things around but the schedule has helped, which is the opposite of Buffalo. Denver caught a lot of teams in bad situations as well as having critical injuries. While the playoff picture is looking solid, it is unlikely a spot will be clinched this week as a lot has to go right. The public is still loving the Broncos as the early majority of wagers are on the visitors yet we have yet to see the line move. Denver is 8-22-1 ATS in its last 31 games against teams with a losing record and just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. Also, we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 85-42 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 8* (106) Buffalo Bills |
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12-24-11 | Oakland Raiders +2 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 72 h 42 m | Show | |
We either pushed or won with the Raiders this past Sunday depending on the line as they had the game in hand but allowed two late scores to fall to 7-7 on the season. They still trail the Broncos by a game in the AFC West and it is obviously now or never time for Oakland. It comes down to winning the final two games and hoping Denver loses at home to Kansas City in the season finale, giving the Raiders the division title based on a better division record. Oakland hosts San Diego in Week 17.
The Chiefs are coming off a monumental win over Green bay on Sunday, snapping the Packers 19-game winning streak. The victory kept their slim playoff hopes alive as the Chiefs still need to beat the Raiders on Saturday, have Denver lose to Buffalo and San Diego drop one of its last two games. Kansas City then must go to Denver and win its season finale. It is all possible but unlikely. Anytime you see a team douse its coach with the Gatorade bucket in the regular season with nothing being clinched, it spells letdown. During Oakland's three-game losing streak, the defense has been to blame and it goes back even further. Oakland is ranked 29th in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 27.3 ppg. Since the bye week, they have allowed an average of 31.7 ppg but they catch a break this week. The Chiefs have not scored more than 20 points in seven straight games and while they did put up 28 points against the Raiders in the first meeting, two of those touchdowns were interception returns in what was Carson Palmer's first game. Palmer has been inconsistent but he needs to roll last week into this week. He completed 32 of 40 passes for 367 yards and did not throw an interception after slumping the past couple of weeks. He knows what's at stake and he's been here before which is a big edge. "There is no choice but to move on," he said. "It'd be easy to go in the tank and say, 'We blew our opportunity,' but we have a good group of leadership and we understand where we are." He will be looking for some payback as well. The Raiders have several situational angles in their favor this week with one of the strongest being to play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season. This situation is 36-8 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1983. Oakland has covered eight straight road divisional games as well, winning seven of those outright while being the underdog in every one of those. That streak continues as the Raiders do their job to get into the postseason. 8* (103) Oakland Raiders |
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12-24-11 | Miami Dolphins v. New England Patriots -9.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -104 | 72 h 5 m | Show |
The turnaround from the Dolphins has been impressive but not to the point of where this line is at this week. Miami won at Buffalo last week in interim head coach Todd Bowles' first game after Tony Sparano was fired last Monday. Those are the types of situations that players tend to step up in and we saw it in the snow and cold of Buffalo. Now the Dolphins must head to New England for a second straight road game with a lot on the line for the Patriots.
New England has been rolling along with six straight wins following a win at Denver this past Sunday. This is a train no one should be stepping in front of right now as the offense is clicking on all cylinders as the Patriots have scored 31 or more points in all six of those games. The defense has struggled all season and despite Miami scoring 30 or more points in four of its last seven games, it has not been able to do it back-to-back. The Dolphins have followed up those big performances by averaging 16.3 ppg next time out. New England was favored by seven points in Miami on opening week which basically meant that the Patriots were roughly 11-point favorites on a neutral field depending on your power rating so that should make them well over a two-touchdown home favorite but that is far from the case here and I feel we are catching a ton of value with New England which usually is not the case. This is the first of two straight home games to close the season for New England. As mentioned, the Miami turnaround has been impressive but the schedule has played a big role in that. Miami's first seven opponents have a combined .561 winning percentage while its last seven opponents have a .440 winning percentage so the turnaround is pretty much explained by that. Dallas is the only team the Dolphins have faced that is above .500 and while they narrowly lost that game, it should have been more wide open than the final score indicated. If the Patriots win out against Miami and Buffalo, they will claim the top seed in the AFC and have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. If that isn't motivation, nothing is. The Patriots are 17-4 ATS in the last two weeks under head coach Bill Belichick so there is no letting up and they fall into a great situation where we play against road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 coming off a divisional win. This situation is 29-10 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (112) New England Patriots |
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12-22-11 | Houston Texans -5.5 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -107 | 52 h 47 m | Show |
Indianapolis got the win it was after so while the pressure is now off, so isn't the desperation factor which can really charge up a team which we saw against Tennessee. It has obviously been a tough season for the Colts without Peyton Manning and at this point they are simply playing out the string. This is a Thursday night game in the spotlight but there more important factors going on with the other sideline so while revenge will try to be attained, there won't be enough in the tank.
Houston had its seven-game winning streak snapped by Carolina this past Sunday so it will be out to get back in the win column and keep its hope alive for a first round bye in the playoffs. The Texans have already clinched the division but the goal of winning out and finishing at 12-4 is very attainable with this game and then Tennessee at home next week to close out the season. The Texans are down some key players, namely at quarterback but that is not a concern here. Quarterback T.J. Yates have done a very good job as a rookie to keep Houston afloat following the injuries to Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart. He put together consecutive solid performances against Atlanta and Cincinnati but it coming off his worst game so far against Carolina. I expect a bounce back against the Colts despite a short week and hitting the road. The Texans running game has been sensational and it will once again be the difference here. Houston has rushed for at least 150 yards in six of its last eight games while putting up 167 yards rushing in the first meeting against the Colts. On the season the Texans are second in the NFL in rushing offense, averaging 151.8 ypg. The Colts are ranked 28th in rushing defense and while limiting Tennessee to just 66 yards last week, they have not put together strong back-to-back performances all season. They allowed fewer than 100 yards four previous times and followed those up by allowing 184.3 ypg next time out. The Texans defense is second in the NFL and actually played well last week but turnovers ended up being the difference. They have allowed more than 300 totals yards only five times this season. Indianapolis is 31st in total offense and put up only 287 yards last week despite the victory. Also, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss and coming off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (101) Houston Texans |
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12-19-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. San Francisco 49ers -3 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 104 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
After a couple of duds on Monday night, we are getting one of the bet games of the weekend this week with the Steelers traveling to San Francisco. We won going against the 49ers last Sunday against Arizona but we will back them at home this week at a very good price. Coming off a loss last week against the Cardinals puts them in a very good spot and they are still fighting for one of the top seeds in the NFC. With New Orleans winning again, this game takes on even bigger meaning.
The Steelers are coming off a win against Cleveland last Thursday so it has had some extra time to get ready for this game which is an edge but the travel to the left coast does take some of that away. The extra time is also good for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who suffered a high ankle sprain last week and is still considered questionable for this game. While that injury is significant, starting center Maurkice Pouncey will most likely miss this game and that can be considered almost as big. These are the two best defensive teams in the NFL as far as scoring goes so points should be a premium but the feeling is that the 49ers defense has the better unit when playing at home. They are allowing over a touchdown less per game at home that what the Steelers give up on the road. San Francisco's 3-4 defense ranks first in the NFL in rushing yards allowed at 70.5 ypg and yards per carry at 3.2 and is the first unit since the 1920 Decatur Staleys not to allow a rushing touchdown in the season's first 13 games. The 49ers fall into a very powerful situation that has been successful for numerous years. We play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 28-5 ATS (84.8 percent) since 1983. The Steelers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs while the 49ers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a cover loss. 10* (332) San Francisco 49ers |
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12-18-11 | Baltimore Ravens v. San Diego Chargers +3 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 79 h 50 m | Show | |
The Chargers are making a December run which comes as no surprise as we have seen it for years after coming out slow the first few months. While it may be too little, too late, San Diego is not out of the playoff picture just yet. If the Chargers win out, which is very possible, and the Broncos lose out, Sand Diego wins the division by virtue of a better record and Denver and winning the tiebreaker against Oakland. Obviously, the Chargers will be keeping an eye on the Broncos and hope they lose to New England Sunday.
Baltimore is in great shape to take the top seed in the AFC North and it is well in the hunt for top seed in the conference. The Ravens have been unbeatable at home but it has struggled on the road and against some very average teams as they have lost to Tennessee, Seattle and Jacksonville. I consider San Diego to be better than all three of those teams, especially the way it is playing now and its December history. The inconsistency of the Ravens on the road should not make them a road chalk here. San Diego is just a game over .500 at home but it remains one of the best teams in the league even if the record does not indicate that. Currently, the Chargers are ranked eighth in total offense (16th in rushing offense, seventh in passing offense and eighth in scoring offense). Defensively, San Diego is ranked eighth (24th in rushing defense, seventh in passing defense and 21st in scoring defense). The Chargers are one of only four teams currently ranked in the top 10 in both offense and defense, similar to last season. Quarterback Philip Rivers is having one of his worst seasons but he has gotten better of late and while the defense he is facing this week is one of the best, his momentum and confidence will be important. He is coming off a three-touchdown, no interception performance this past week and after throwing 17 interceptions through 10 games, he has not had a pick in his last three games. This is the best quarterback Baltimore has seen in six games since facing Ben Roethlisberger, allowing 322 passing yards then. On the other side, quarterback Joe Flacco has been a model of inconsistency this season, especially on the road. He has a quarterback rating of 85.2 at home and just 74.9 on the road and of his five ratings of over 100 this season, only one was away from home and that was at lowly St. Louis. The Chargers' 3-4 defensive scheme is the first the Ravens will have seen since the San Francisco game on Thanksgiving night. San Diego has covered five of its last six games as a home underdog. 8* (330) San Diego Chargers |
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12-18-11 | Detroit Lions v. Oakland Raiders +1.5 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 41 m | Show |
As of Wednesday, the Lions are favored in this game by a point which means that Detroit is considered five points better than Oakland on an even playing field. I'm certainly not buying that. The Lions were the darlings of the NFL betting world earlier this season when they started out 5-0 but they have gone just 3-5 since then while going just 2-6 against the number. Despite the recent dry run at the betting window, the public still loves Detroit and they are clearly overvalued here once again.
Oakland was looking good in the AFC West before a recent stumble and the resurgence of Denver. The Raiders have dropped two straight games, both on the road and coming by a total of 50 points. Now heading back home, it sets them up in a great spot. This is a golden opportunity as Denver hosts New England so a win here can get the Raiders into a first place tie with two divisional games remaining. We are confident knowing that the Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a loss. I wasn't very impressed with the Lions this past Sunday as they jumped out to a 21-0 and had to hold on for dear life to pull out the win. Elite teams provide the knockout punch in those situations and Detroit is not there yet. The previous week against the Saints, they blew numerous opportunities to stay close because of stupid penalties and you would think after that, the coaching staff would make sure they were more disciplined. Not so much as Detroit committed 10 penalties for 76 yards against the Vikings. Raiders quarterback Carson Palmer is struggling as he has tossed 13 interceptions compared to nine touchdowns since joining Oakland. Against Green Bay, the Raiders ran the ball better than it did in the previous two games and had 117 yards on 29 carries (4.0 ypc). Those are not earth shattering but this is a run first team that is averaging 138.8 ypg on 4.6 ypc, good for sixth and seventh in the NFL respectively. Look for them to continue pounding the ball against Detroit which is 27th in rushing defense. The Raiders defense also needs to get moving in the right direction and something says a return home is just what it needs. Oakland falls into a great situation here as well as we play on home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a road loss by 14 points or more, in December games. This situation is 71-32 ATS (68.9 percent) since 1983. The Lions are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and being favored on the road against a playoff caliber team should not be happening either. 10* (322) Oakland Raiders |
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12-18-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Kansas City Chiefs +14.5 | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show | |
There is not a whole lot standing in the way of Green Bay for it to go undefeated this season. This is the final road game of the season and closing with two home games against divisional foes Detroit and Chicago sets it up well. While losing in Kansas City is unlikely, it certainly is possible, but we are dealing with a point spread that is extremely big. The Packers have been favored in every road game this season but this is the most they have had to give and they have not won on the road by more than 12 points.
Kansas City is done at 5-8 and the losing ways cost head coach Todd Haley his job despite winning the division last season and having this year derailed because of injuries to its quarterback and top running back. The Chiefs are coming off a dreadful game in New York last week against the Jets and that was the final straw for general manager Scott Pioli who named Romeo Crennel interim head coach for the rest of the season. A change can provide a big spark and Crennel does have head coaching experience. The stagnate Chiefs offense looks to get a boost with Kyle Orton taking over at quarterback for Tyler Palko as Crennel said he made the decision Wednesday morning to switch. Palko had led the Chiefs to only two touchdowns in four games since taking over for the injured Matt Cassel. Orton has been hampered by a dislocated finger on his throwing hand but he took snaps with the first team on Wednesday and all indications are that he will be ready to go. Stopping the Packers has been an issue for most teams this season as quarterback Aaron Rodgers is having a sensational season. He will be down one key player as receiver Greg Jennings is out for a few weeks with a knee injury. The Chiefs defense is a solid unit, especially against the pass as they have allowed fewer than 200 yards passing in four of their last five games. The lone exception was 223 yards allowed to the Patriots but that was New England's second lowest passing output of the season. Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog and 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog of 10.5 or more points. The Packers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road favorites of 10.5 or more points and we have the Chiefs in a great situation. Play on home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a road loss by 14 points or more, in December games. This situation is 71-32 ATS (68.9 percent) since 1983 including 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons. 8* (308) Kansas City Chiefs |
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12-18-11 | New Orleans Saints v. Minnesota Vikings +7.5 | 42-20 | Loss | -125 | 71 h 21 m | Show | |
The Saints got away with one last week at Tennessee and as assumed, they come in as bigger road favorites this week at Minnesota. New Orleans is a perfect 6-0 at home but it is just 4-3 on the road. Granted, one of those losses came against Green Bay but the other two came against St. Louis and Tampa Bay, neither of which will be sniffing the playoffs this season. The Saints close the season with two home games, both against divisional foes, including Atlanta next Monday night so a peek ahead is possible.
The Vikings have been a disaster this season but you have to give them credit last week for fighting back against the Lions after falling behind 21-0. That game could have gotten really ugly but Minnesota fought until the end and we expect more of a fight this week. The last games could have been winners and Minnesota showed good production as it outgained the Broncos and Lions by 153 and 145 total yards respectively. The Vikings have tallied two of their three highest offensive totals the last two games. Stopping the Saints will not happen but the Vikings can slow them down by utilizing the strengths of their own offense. Running back Adrian Peterson practiced Wednesday "without any inhibition" and seems poised to return to action this weekend for the first time since suffering a high ankle sprain in the first quarter of a Week 11 loss to Oakland. This is big as the Saints allow 4.9 ypc which is 29th in the NFL. They don't allow as many yards because they have the fourth least attempts against them. Minnesota did a very good job on defense last week, allowing a season low 280 yards against Detroit. The Vikings have allowed fewer than 400 total yards in all five games since their bye and that came against some very potent offense, the Packers included. Getting pressure on Drew Brees is the key and Minnesota is fourth in the NFL in sacks with 41. The Saints have allowed 27 sacks this season. They have also been in the redzone an NFL most 58 times but have only 31 touchdowns. This Vikings team does not want to go down as the worst in franchise history as the goal now is to avoid posting the franchise record for losses. They will need to finish 2-1 to make it 4-12 which would be one game better than the 3-13 team from 1984. They fall into a solid contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after three or more consecutive losses, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 28-6 ATS (82.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 8* (310) Minnesota Vikings |
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12-18-11 | Seattle Seahawks v. Chicago Bears -3.5 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 30 m | Show |
The loss of quarterback Jay Cutler has obviously been a devastating one for the Bears as they have lost all three games since his injury. They have scored only 33 points in the three games after scoring at least 30 points in each of the Cutler's last three games. The loss of Matt Forte has not helped matters but if there is any chance of a trip to the playoffs, this is a must win game as Chicago is at Green bay next week and closes at Minnesota in its season finale.
This is just as much of a play against Seattle as it is on Chicago. The Seahawks have had a very favorable schedule, playing at home for three straight games. They defeated Philadelphia after losing to the Redskins after a fourth quarter meltdown and are coming off a win over the Rams Monday night. That came after having 10 days off after the Eagles game for now they go from extended rest to a short week and traveling at the same time. This is a horrible spot and a great fade. All news isn't bad for the Chicago offense though. Forte has not officially been ruled out (although very unlikely he will play so don't get hopes up) while wide receiver Earl Bennett, who is widely regarded as the top wideout on the Bears roster, is getting close to full strength and he needs to get into the offense. Last week against Denver, the loss overshadowed a productive outing for running back Marion Barber, who ran for a game-high 108 yards. The Bears defense still needs to carry the load. They were awesome for nearly the entire game last week but a miscommunication in the secondary which rotated cornerbacks Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings and Zack Bowman throughout the game played a role in Tim Tebow hitting Demaryius Thomas for Denver's only touchdown with just over two minutes left. Chicago has allowed more than 400 total yards only once this season, one of only three teams in the entire league to accomplished that. Seattle has not had success in these spots in the past as it is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following a double-digit win and 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following any win in its previous game. The Bears meanwhile are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Also we play against teams after two straight wins by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after a loss by three points or less. This situation is 39-15 ATS (72.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (312) Chicago Bears |
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12-17-11 | Dallas Cowboys v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 | 31-15 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 13 m | Show | |
The Buccaneers cannot catch a break as they have lost seven straight games after a very promising start but this is the chance for them to gain a little bit of pride before the season ends. This is their final home game of the season as they close with games at Carolina and at Atlanta so this could very well be considered their playoff game in front of the home crowd. After starting 3-1 at home they have dropped their last two true home games as ever since the trip to England, nothing has gone right.
Speaking of nothing going right, the Cowboys lost for the second straight time in horrible fashion as they had a lead over the Giants by 12 points with less than six minutes remaining and allowed New York to come back and win. Many will call it an unlucky break for the Cowboys but this is not a good team plain and simple. They are 2-2 over their last four games and while they could be 4-0, they could also be 0-4 just as easily as narrow wins over the Redskins and Dolphins could have gone the other way. Last Sunday, Tampa Bay jumped out to a 14-0 lead only to see Jacksonville score 41 unanswered points in its most recent loss but that final score is pretty deceiving. The Jaguars scored two touchdowns on fumble recoveries and they scored another touchdown following an interception so turnovers were the difference. Tampa Bay committed seven turnovers overall so the offense hurt the defense as the stop unit played pretty well, allowing only 325 total yards. The Dallas defense was exposed again as it allowed 510 total yards against the Giants, another sign of an inconsistent unit. Tampa Bay does not have a potent offense overall but it has put up big numbers on occasion and Dallas is a very vulnerable team right now. That loss against New York is huge as it wiped out what essentially was a chance to lock down the NFC East and while many will argue this being a bounceback opportunity, I find it going the complete opposite way as the December struggles continue. This is a must win game for the Cowboys which have two tough tests remaining against the Eagles and Giants. That must-win scenario is being played into this line yet the public still continues to ride this very average team. Tampa Bay falls into numerous powerful league-wide situations with one of the strongest being to play against road teams coming off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 9* (304) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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12-12-11 | St Louis Rams v. Seattle Seahawks -10 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
This seems to be a lot of points for Seattle to be laying, especially for a 5-7 team involved in a divisional game. The number could be higher though in my opinion as the Seahawks still have an outside shot at a playoff berth, albeit small, and they have a lot of edges on their side in this matchup. Another big factor is time off an travel. Seattle last played on December 1st in a Thursday night home game against the Eagles so they have essentially had three extra days of preparation than the Rams have had.
It has been a miserable season for St. Louis as it dropped to 2-10 following its shutout loss at San Francisco last week. They have dropped three straight games and they have been outgained in all but three games this season. Injuries have played a major factor in this which caused this line to come out late and the quarterback situation is still a mystery. Sam Bradford is questionable to all indications are that he will play as backup Tom Brandstater took all his snaps with the scout team. The Rams are second to last in the NFL in yardage differential at -82.2 ypg and one huge factor is the inability of the St. Louis offense to move the ball. Looking at pure, raw statistics shows the Rams offense is horrendous as they are 31st in total offense and 28th in both passing offense and rushing offense. The group Football Outsiders puts out a different set of statistics based on many factors and their play-by-play efficiency has the Rams dead last overall and both 31st in passing and rushing offense. St. Louis was expected to improve on offense from last season based on a slew of up and coming players that had gained a much important year of experience. As mentioned, injuries has derailed this but the lockout was a major roadblock for the Rams. They hired Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator and because of no offseason work, the offense was limited in its preparation so learning a new system in a short time has not been beneficial. Seattle's defense has been solid and will continue that here. The Rams' offensive line is giving up sacks 3.3 percent more often this year than last season and after being ranked 10th in sacks allowed a season ago, they are ranked 29th this season. Monday night underdogs that have been struggling have been a losing proposition for years as we play against underdogs or pickems after having lost five or six out of their last seven games, when playing on Monday night. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (134) Seattle Seahawks |
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12-11-11 | NY Giants +3.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 42 m | Show |
The winner of this game takes control of the NFC East. The Cowboys would have a two-game lead should they win while the Giants will fall into a first place tie but will have the tiebreaker edge by grabbing the first of the two meetings this season with the second one taking place on New Year's Day in New York. At this point, it is much bigger for the Giants which have lost four straight games and with the exception of the New Orleans game, the other three games all could have gone the other way.
Dallas is coming off a tough loss in Arizona last weekend so it can be argued that a bounceback situation is in place for the Cowboys but the same can be said for the visiting team as well. Prior to the loss in Arizona, Dallas had won four straight games but two of those came against the lowly Bills and Seahawks while the other two came against the Redskins and Dolphins on last second field goals, the latter taking place in overtime. As good as people think they are, the Cowboys are far from a dominating team. While the Giants have lost four straight games, three have come against the Packers, Saints and 49ers, all of which are 9-3 or better, while the fourth loss came against the Eagles which are fourth in the NFL in yardage differential. Losses are certainly not good but sometimes quality losses are better than non-quality wins which the Cowboys possess. Their only win against a top team all season was in Week Two against San Francisco and it took overtime to get that victory. The Cowboys passing defense gave up very little to the Bills, 49ers, Rams and Seahawks this season but has been torched by every other team. They have allowed 255.3 ypg over their last three games on 8.1 ypa which is exactly what the Giants have averaged over their last three games to go along with over 329 ypg. Eli Manning is having a great season as he is fourth in passing yards and sixth in passer rating with this being his highest rating in his seven full seasons in the league. Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw returned after four missed games because of injury and his presence will be big this week after playing average against the Packers. He was clearly rusty but he has had some big games against the Cowboys and has a lifetime 4.6 ypc average against them .Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season. This situation is 36-8 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (131) New York Giants |
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12-11-11 | San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals +4.5 | 19-21 | Win | 100 | 72 h 26 m | Show | |
We won with Arizona last week as it won in overtime against the Cowboys. The Cardinals are playing very well right now and they are once again catching a great number at home. They have won four of their last five games with the only loss coming in San Francisco which ended up being one of their worst games this season. That spells revenge and while Arizona is sitting at 5-7 on the season, they are still mathematically involved in the playoffs which means a full effort yet again.
San Francisco clinched the division last Sunday with its win over the Rams and while a letdown after that is always possible, we are not banking on it here as the 49ers still have a lot to play for. Nonetheless it is still a tough situation for a team that despite being 4-1 on the road, have shown their struggles away from home. San Francisco has been outgained in three of its five road games and its best showing was a +23 yardage differential against the Redskins as it won that thanks to turnovers. While some teams have gone south because of turnovers (Philadelphia and San Diego to name a couple big ones), the 49ers have thrived in this role as they lead the NFL with a +18 turnover margin. They have won the turnover battle in 10 of 12 games this season which is almost unheard of in this league but that is something that we cannot bank on going forward. The Cardinals have lost the turnover battle only five times this season which is far from horrible and they will look to make up for the -4 in the first meeting. The return of quarterback Kevin Kolb last week was big as he tore apart the Cowboys defense for a 109.9 quarterback rating. He had missed four games prior to this so the loss in San Francisco is not on his shoulders. Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt said at his Monday news conference several of Kolb's passes were "the kinds of things that you're looking to see that you get really excited about." He won't have to deal with All-Pro linebacker Patrick Willis who pulled a hamstring last week against the Rams. That San Francisco defense is one of the best in the league and has allowed 20 points or fewer in eight straight games but the loss of Willis is a huge absence. This is the game that the rushing defense could get run upon as Cardinals running back Beanie Wells is averaging 4.6 ypc and the 49ers fall into a contrarian rushing situation. Play against road favorites that are outrushing their opponents by 40 or more ypg, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 37-15 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 8* (126) Arizona Cardinals |
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12-11-11 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Miami Dolphins | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 69 h 23 m | Show | |
The Eagles have been trash all season as the so-called dream team never got off the ground. They have been an overvalued team pretty much most of the season and that included last week when we cashed playing against them as three-point favorites in Seattle. Now they are catching three points in Miami which is more of a realistic line and I feel we are actually getting value with them here. The return of Michael Vick and Jeremy Macklin is a big boost for the offense.
Miami has completely turned its season around. After starting the year 0-7, the Dolphins have won four of their last five games and going back a little further, they have covered six straight games. The Dolphins may have saved head coach Tony Sparano's job in the process although that is still up for debate. They are playing their best football of the season but it may be considered skewed as the four wins they have had have come against teams that are all on the negative side of yardage differential. The Eagles remind us a lot of the Chargers from last season. Statistically, they are one of the best teams in the NFL as they are +67.8 ypg in yardage differential which is the fourth highest in the NFL behind Houston, Pittsburgh and New Orleans. The fact that they are sitting 4-8 on the season is because of turnovers as they are -13 in turnover margin which is tied for worst in the NFL with the Redskins and Colts. Keeping turnovers to a minimum means victory. Philadelphia is still mathematically alive in the NFC East and it know it which is important. Repeating as divisional champions may take a minor miracle but expect the Eagles to continue to play to win and not have an eye on the future. "We definitely know the circumstances," wide receiver Jason Avant said. "We need a lot of stuff to happen, but the only thing we can do to control us is go out and put a good performance this week, and that's what we're trying to do." Because of the Eagles dud in Seattle last week, they fall into a great contrarian situation. Play on road underdogs or pickems in a game involving two teams with a scoring differential between +3 ppg and -3 ppg, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 83-37 ATS (69.2 percent) since 1983. with quarterback Vince Young and his nine interceptions in four games out of the picture, look for Philadelphia to keep its slim playoff hopes alive with a big road win here. 8* (117) Philadelphia Eagles |
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12-11-11 | Kansas City Chiefs +10.5 v. NY Jets | 10-37 | Loss | -102 | 69 h 22 m | Show | |
The Jets are hanging around in the AFC Playoff picture but at 7-5, there is no way they should be laying this many points to a team that is also still involved in a postseason scenario. Despite winning their second straight game against Washington last week, they were outgained for the second game in a row as well. On the season, New York is getting outgained by 6.7 ypg which may seem miniscule, but anything in the negative portrays a team that is not very good and is not worthy of being a big chalk.
Things have been tough in Kansas City as it lost its top running back the second week of the season and then lost its top quarterback a couple weeks ago. The Chiefs aren't giving up however as they played the Steelers tough two weeks ago and went to Chicago last week and came away with a victory. They are two games back in the AFC West and while taking the division will be a stretch, this is a must win as Kansas City hosts Green Bay next week before finishing out with two divisional games. New York escaped its third straight loss, literally escaped because of a dropped ball, two weeks ago at home against an injury-ravaged Bills team and then needed three and a half quarters to warm up and pull away late from the Redskins. The Jets do not have a dominant win since Week Two against Jacksonville and while some scores may reflect domination, they have been far from that. They have been outgained in six of their last nine games and their biggest positive differential is +89 yards in a loss at Denver. The Jets defense gets the praise and it should as it is a very solid unit, ranked seventh in the league in total defense. Kansas City is playing its best defense of the season right now as it held both Chicago and Pittsburgh to their lowest yardage outputs of the season while holding the Patriots to their fourth lowest output of the season. New York's offense is far from threatening as it is ranked 26th overall and it has surpassed 350 total yards only three times the entire season. The Jets are 5-1 at home but it took two come-from-behind victories against the Cowboys and the Chargers and that aforementioned Bills gaff to get there. New York remains a public team in the betting market and for no apparent reason. Here we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983. 8* (111) Kansas City Chiefs |
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12-11-11 | New Orleans Saints v. Tennessee Titans +4 | Top | 22-17 | Loss | -105 | 90 h 13 m | Show |
This is a bad spot for New Orleans. The Saints are coming off two straight home wins and covers, both in primetime as well, and now they hit the road for a non-conference game with a two-game lead in the division. New Orleans is a perfect 6-0 at home but it is just 3-3 on the road. Granted, one of those losses came against Green Bay but the other two came against St. Louis and Tampa Bay, neither of which will be sniffing the playoffs this season. New Orleans has covered four straight games, giving us value here.
Tennessee has won two in a row and while both came against mediocre teams, the last one came on the road and the one before that came in a driving rainstorm. The weather outlook is looking real good for this Sunday and while that may favor New Orleans and its offense, it takes away any chances of Tennessee losing this game because of the elements. The Titans trail Houston by two games in the AFC South so a win here keeps them on pace with three divisional games remaining. All of the talk about Titans running back Chris Johnson mailing it in this season can be put to rest. He is averaging 121.5 ypg on 5.7 ypc over his last four games and his 486 yards over this stretch is 120 yard more than his first eight games combined so he is obviously peaking at the right time. He has flourished over some bad defenses and we can lump the Saints into that category as they allow 4.9 ypc which is 30th in the NFL. They don't allow as many yards because they have the fifth least attempts against them. The Saints are all about Drew Brees and the passing game and neither the Giants nor the Lions had an answer on the turf. Playing on the road on the grass is a different story as over the last three years, he has a 108.4 passer rating at home and a 104.0 passer rating on turf but on grass fields, it dips to 93.8 over 12 starts. The Titans have a strong defense against the pass as they are 18th in yards allowed but third in ypa so they are not giving up big plays. That is the key to slowing down the Saints offense. Tennessee is 4-2 at home this season and it is an ideal situation as home underdogs coming off a straight up road victory going up against non-divisional opponents coming off a home win are 42-14 ATS (75 percent) since 1991. The Titans also fall into a spectacular contrarian situation where we play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. This situation is 56-24 ATS (70 percent) since 1983. 10* (116) Tennessee Titans |
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12-11-11 | Houston Texans v. Cincinnati Bengals -3 | Top | 20-19 | Loss | -100 | 90 h 6 m | Show |
You have to give credit to Houston for hanging together after the loss of two quarterbacks and winning its sixth straight games last week at home against the Falcons. We cashed a ticket on the Texans but now the situation completely reverses itself as they hit the road with a two-game division lead against a team in much need of a victory. This is the first road start for quarterback T.J. Yates who has played average in his first two games but now it is a whole different ballgame.
The Bengals have dropped three of their last four games with the three losses coming against the two teams ahead of them in the division, Pittsburgh (twice) and Baltimore. Cincinnati is now two games behind the Ravens and Steelers in the AFC North so while winning that is likely done, it is still in the playoff hunt as a Wild Card as it is tied with the Jets, Titans, Raiders and Broncos at 7-5. After covering five straight, the Bengals have not cashed a ticket in their last four games, thus putting value on their side. The Texans defense is one of the best in football this season and they have not allowed more than 14 points in any of their last six games so that is obviously the key to the winning streak. Every game that the opponent has scored more than 14 points, the Texans have lost so that is obviously the key number for the Bengals offense. They are led by a rookie as well, Andy Dalton, but he has not played like a rookie as he has put together a solid season with five games of a passer rating of 97.9 or better. The Bengals allow 96.3 rushing ypg this season and it is imperative that they shut down the Houston rushing offense. The Bengals are giving up just 3.6 ypc which is third best in the NFL so while stopping the Texans is not easy, it is doable and that will put a lot of pressure on Yates to try and win the game in his first ever road start. Making matters worse for Yates is that his top target, receiver Andre Johnson, is most likely out with a strained left hamstring that occurred last week. While the Bengals are tied with a slew of other teams, they actually hold the tiebreaker over all of the rest of these teams based on their current conference record and they have also won the head-to-head matchup versus the Titans. Getting a win here puts them that much closer with winnable games against St. Louis and Arizona on deck. We play against road teams off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (108) Cincinnati Bengals |
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12-05-11 | San Diego Chargers -3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
Jacksonville let go of head coach Jack Del Rio after another slow start to the season and while playing the new coaching angle is always something to look at, we simply cannot look past the fact that this team is not good. We won with the Jaguars in a Monday night game a few weeks ago when they were home underdogs against Baltimore and they won that game outright but this is a much different and more difficult situation. The Jaguars have lost three of four since that win over the Ravens.
San Diego certainly is not a very good team this season as it is struggling once again under head coach Norv Turner despite having some incredible talent on both sides. The good news for the Chargers is that the AFC West is a mediocre division and a win here means that they trail first place Oakland and Denver by two games which keeps them involved with a very doable schedule the rest of the way. While many think they have called it a season, there is still fight in this team. |
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12-04-11 | Detroit Lions +9 v. New Orleans Saints | 17-31 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 22 m | Show | |
Judging by the way the Saints looked Monday night, this is not a train many people will want to step in front of however we will go that route. The New Orleans offense feasted on the Giants defense and put up 49 points in the process. This looks pretty familiar though as we recall the Saints scoring 62 points against the Colts only to come back and lose in their next game against the Rams. Granted, that game was on the road but more important, it shows the bounce angle is once again in effect this week.
Detroit has had some extra time to get over that Thanksgiving loss to Green Bay, a game it very well could have made a lot closer in the early going if not for mistakes. The schedule goes not get any easier with a trip to New Orleans but the defense is in better shape than what we saw last week with the Giants despite the absence of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh who has been suspended for two games. Detroit is sixth in the league in passing defense and could cause some problems here for Drew Brees and company. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford threw three interceptions against the Packers but I expect him to have a big bounceback game here. Eli Manning threw for 406 yards last week and it could have been much more if not for numerous dropped balls. It was the second consecutive game the Saints allowed a ton of passing yards and they will have trouble with wide receiver Calvin Johnson. They bring pressure in the form of corner and safety blitzes, but the cornerbacks have to be able to match up and they won't here. The return of running back Kevin Smith will be important for Detroit. He is listed as doubtful as of Friday but her fully participated in practice on Thursday and showed no side effects of his high ankle sprain sustained against the Packers. Motivation will not be an issue on either side but a Detroit win here would be huge for the Lions as they have fallen into a three-way tie for the NFC's two wild-card spots, although Chicago and Atlanta currently own the tiebreakers. The Saints are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games after allowing 6.0 or more yppl in their previous game and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win by 14 or more points. Detroit meanwhile is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following a double digit home loss. Detroit fall into a solid situation as well as we play on teams after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 40-14 ATS (74.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* (363) Detroit Lions |
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12-04-11 | Green Bay Packers v. NY Giants +7 | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 53 h 8 m | Show | |
The Packers have won 17 straight games dating back to last season and that streak happened to start against the Giants as they hammered New York at home 45-17. Green Bay has been on cruise control since then although there have been bumps along the way, especially with games on the road. While the offense continues to click, the defense continues to sputter as the Packers have now been outgained in five of their last six games which is unheard of if all of those games were wins.
While the Packers continue to surge, the Giants are freefalling as they have lost three straight games including a Monday night beating in New Orleans. To no surprise, the public is on the Packers here with part of that based on the fact that if the Giants could not stop Drew Brees, they are not going to be able to stop Aaron Rodgers. That has very little substance if you ask me considering the games are taking place in two different venues and the Giants know this is a must win and what better game for it to be that. The injury bug had hit New York in a big way so that is definitely a concern. However, I feel the offense is still good enough against that bad Packers defense while the defense is healthy in the right areas to help slow down the Green Bay offense. It will be no easy task but the Giants defense has been so much better at home than on the road and even last week was a complete aberration. The Giants got no pressure on Brees despite having 31 sacks on the season. Rodgers will see a lot more of it this week. Giants quarterback Eli Manning is having a great season but the key here is to keep the Packers on their heels and that is to establish a running game with Brandon Jacobs. Yes that is easier said than done but the Packers are allowing 4.9 ypg on the ground and they have allowed over 100 yards in three straight games and six of their last eight. This will help open up the passing game and the Giants can put up big plays with Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Jake Ballard who are all averaging over 16 yards per catch. The Giants fall into two solid situations here. First, play on home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a road loss by 14 points or more, in December games. This situation is 70-32 ATS (68.6 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against favorites after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. This is a great spot for the Giants to grab their revenge. 8* (372) New York Giants |
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12-04-11 | Dallas Cowboys v. Arizona Cardinals +5 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 66 h 29 m | Show |
Dallas is now sitting all alone in first place in the NFL East following four straight wins couple with three straight Giants losses. Some seem to think the Cowboys are back and are now becoming a force but I'm not one of those. We had a ticket on them on Thanksgiving and they were once again very average and snuck out a second straight narrow win. The Cowboys are 2-3 on the road this season with both of those wins coming on overtime so they have been far from dominant.
The Cardinals are back up to 4-7 following a win last week in St. Louis, their third in their last four games. While the playoffs are still very unlikely as few miracles need to take place, Arizona continues to play hard and coming off three straight road makes this a very good situational play. Seven of the Cardinals first 11 games have been on the road so the schedule-makers did them no favors early on. In to town comes their biggest rival even though they have been out of the Cowboys division for quite a while. The Cardinals should be getting Kevin Kolb back this week at quarterback and while he is not having a great season, he is an upgrade from John Skelton who started four games in his absence. Kolb has actually only has one really bad game this season and that was at Minnesota and it is no surprise his passer rating 67.4 on the road compared to a very solid 92.3 at home in the three games he started. Beanie Well is coming off a career game and broke a Cardinals record with 228 yards rushing so he will only help Kolb. On the other side, Tony Romo is having a solid year despite losing his top running back and playing without one of his best receivers lately. Still, this offense has been very inconsistent and as a matter of fact the Cowboys are coming off two of their three lowest offensive outputs of the season in their last two games. The Cardinals defense has been a liability this season but they have been playing much better of late, especially the passing defense which has allowed just 202.3 ypg over their last four games. Dallas has been winning but failing to cover and that suggest an overvalued team which is certainly the case. The Cowboys are getting hammered again this week yet we have seen a big swing go the other way as sharp money has brought this line down two points from the opening number. Also we play against favorites , in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (370) Arizona Cardinals |
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12-04-11 | NY Jets v. Washington Redskins +3 | 34-19 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm really not sure how the Jets can be favored in this game as they have lost any sort of value in my opinion, especially on the road after that Denver debacle. New York escaped its third straight loss, literally escaped because of a dropped ball, last week at home against an injury-ravaged Bills team but jump back over .500 on the season. The home team is now 9-2 in Jets games this season which includes New York going 1-4 on the road, the lone win coming on Buffalo.
Washington was going through a very rough patch with six straight losses and a seventh being just 13 minutes away but the Redskins showed no quit last week in Seattle, rallying with the game's final 16 points and picking up the victory. The offense put up 416 total yards which is the second most all season and it was the most balance there has been in weeks. The Redskins can bring that home to go along with a much improved defense and keep their slim playoff homes alive. A quick breakdown of the two teams shows that Washington is getting outgained by 8.2 ypg on the season while the Jets are getting outgained by 3.9 ypg this year. That looks pretty even so giving the home team three points toward the spread, shouldn't the Redskins be favored by a field goal? We can't look at records to determine point spreads and value but what goes into those records and by looking at it this way, this line is off by six points which is a big value edge for Washington. The Redskins defense is ranked 11th overall and 10th in scoring which is certainly better than average and they should be able to cause havoc on the Jets offense. Running back Shonn Greene is banged up with a rib problem while quarterback Mark Sanchez simply is not that good. He has been sacked eight times over the last three games and over his last five starts, only two registered passer rating above 90 and those were both against the Bills 28th ranked defense. Washington has 33 sacks, tied for third most in the NFL. Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman has put together very strong games the last two weeks and while the going will not be easy this week, the Jets have been nothing special on defense this season. They have been inconsistent in stopping the run and Redskins offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will likely get back to pounding the ball between the tackles to set the tone. That will set up opportunities for Grossman to attack the middle of the field. Look for another outright upset for Washington. 8* (358) Washington Redskins |
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12-04-11 | Atlanta Falcons v. Houston Texans +3 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 64 h 40 m | Show |
The linesmakers seem to have given up on the Texans and the public is following suit. Atlanta opened as road favorites and it is getting hammered which comes as no surprise in this situation. The Falcons have rebounded after that tough overtime loss against the Saints as they have won their last two games but now after three straight home games, they finally hit the road again. Atlanta is a notoriously bad road team and there is no reason to think that it won't continue here.
Matt Schaub is out and Matt Leinart is out so the line has been adjusted because of that but that is a total insult to the rest of the team. Schaub is one of the best quarterbacks in the game and even he was limited at times when Andre Johnson was absent for an extended period of time. The Texans relied on a strong running game to get the job done on offense so even though T.J. Yates will be making his first ever start, you can bet on the fact that Houston will run the ball, and have success in doing so. Atlanta has a defense that is very overrated. The rushing defense has been great the past four games but it faced the Vikings without Adrian Peterson, the Titans with an out of sort Chris Johnson, the Saints who didn't need to run as they threw for 363 yards and the Colts, who have hapless all season. Houston possesses the third ranked rushing offense in the NFL so it will have more success here. The Falcons have a mediocre pass rush as well so Yates will not be under constant pressure. Speaking of defense, somebody forgot to tell the linesmakers that Houston has the number one ranked total defense and number two ranked scoring defense in the league. The Texans are second in passing defense and fourth in rushing defense so they are solid in all areas. Matt Ryan is a great quarterback at home but an average quarterback on the road (career passer rating of 96.1 at home and 80.3 on the road) while running back Michael Turner is still bothered by a groin injury. The Texans know they are getting no respect and they will step up huge here and we see that all the time as that is simply what above average teams do. They fall into two great situations. Play against road favorites after two consecutive wins as home favorites. This situation is 41-13 ATS (75.9 percent) since 1996. Play against road favorites after a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off a road win. This situation is 78-43 ATS (64.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (360) Houston Texans |
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12-04-11 | Denver Broncos v. Minnesota Vikings -1 | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 25 m | Show |
The Vikings are off to their worst start in team history which is saying a lot as they have been around for a long time. There is nothing but pride on the line now and coming off two straight road games, I think this is a great spot for them to snap their three-game losing streak. Minnesota has played a very tough schedule with its last five losses coming against likely or possible playoff teams with the two most recent wins coming against non-playoff contenders. I feel Denver is in that latter category.
The Broncos have won four straight games as well as five of its last six games including all four games on the road. Tebow-Mania has hit the NFL full force and he is proving every doubter wrong. I was not a doubter to begin with as Tebow is a winner and winners win. But the magic cannot continue with the way Denver is winning as eventually it will bite them. It has been a very impressive run considering the offense has registered more than 350 total yards only once. There was an article this week on Yahoo Sports that proved how unlikely this Denver run has been. The Broncos won their third straight game by scoring fewer than 20 points and going back to the 5-1 run, four of those wins have come by way of scoring fewer than 20 points. Looking at every other game season, teams are 21-111 when scoring fewer than 20 points so what Denver has done defies all odds. Coming off three straight divisional road wins mixed with a home upset, this is where it ends. A lot of the credit goes to the Denver defense for not giving up many points to give the team a chance to win but the defense is not as good as portrayed. The Broncos have allowed fewer than 300 yards only twice over this recent six-game stretch and they have been the beneficiaries of opponents kicking themselves in the foot. Minnesota is certainly no juggernaut but even without Adrian Peterson, it can move the ball downfield with a solid group of receivers and putting Percy Harvin in the Wildcat. The fact that Minnesota is the favorite is a shock to some and the Broncos are getting a heavy dose of the action but the line has either not moved or gone the other way signaling a reverse line move. The Vikings fall into a potent league-wide situation too as we play on home teams with a winning percentage of less than .250 in the second half of the season after three or more consecutive losses and now playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (366) Minnesota Vikings |
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12-01-11 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Seattle Seahawks +3 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
The Eagles season is officially over yet they are overvalued on the road as favorite. Well, it isn't officially over but the nail in pretty much pounded through the coffin. It is a big of a surprise because Philadelphia was actually catching some value at home last week and after getting beaten by the Patriots, they lose value on the road. After losing that game, it is going to be a tall order for the Eagles to get up for this game, especially with the fact it has to head to the west coast on a short week.
Seattle is coming off a disappointing loss last week and that should have it highly motivated here. This is a chance to break even with the NFC East this season and while it means little, the Seahawks will still be mathematically alive in the playoffs. Granted, they have the same record as the Eagles but playing at home is a big advantage here and even more so in the role of a home underdog. And on top of that, playing at home last week heightens the travel advantage even more. Michael Vick will miss his third straight game so Vince Young will once again get the start. He has been pretty decent thus far as he threw for a career-high 400 yards last week against New England, although most of it came in the second half after the Eagles were down 31-13. Along with Vick, the Eagles have already ruled out wide receiver Jeremy Maclin for a third straight week and defensively it is just as bad as cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is out while Nnamdi Asomugha is questionable. The Seahawks will look to establish the running game as they have been very solid in that department over the last four games, rushing for 531 yards over that stretch. The Eagles have done a decent job of tightening up their run defense but teams have been able to throw all over the place. Philadelphia has allowed 294.7 ypg and a whopping 8.1 ypa over this stretch. The Eagles defense has been a very schizophrenic unit this season and this situation calls for yet another bad effort. Seattle has a very favorable schedule going forward but losing last week was a heavy blow. Still, confidence has not been lost in what has been said early this week and that is important to try and find this time of the season. The Seahawks fall into a great situation as we play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging more than 370 ypg going up against teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. after 8+ games. This situation is 16-3 ATS (84.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (302) Seattle Seahawks |
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11-28-11 | NY Giants +7.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 24-49 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
This game is equally important for both sides. The Saints need to win to remain a game up on the Falcons in the NFC South while the Giants need to win to avoid falling a game behind the Cowboys in the NFC East. New Orleans seems to have the scheduling edge as it is home following a bye week but that is being factored into this line in my opinion as it is a few points too high. I think anything over a field goal is ideal and anything over a touchdown is exceptional. The latter is in play many places.
New York has dropped two straight games to fall out of solo first place in the division and as mentioned, it needs to win to keep pace. The Giants offense is coming off its worst game of the season as they gained just 278 total yards, the lowest output since opening week against the Redskins when they gained 315 yards. The good news is that the Saints defense is also coming off their worst game of the season and it will be easier for an offense to fix things rather than a defense because of matchups in place. New York needs to establish some sort of running game as one of the best rushing teams in the NFL has been unable to do so this season. Enter the Saints which are allowing a whopping 5.2 ypc, worst in the NFL. Any resemblance of a running game will help with the passing game as the Giants are fourth in the NFL is passing ypa. Quarterback Peyton Manning is solid when he faces zone coverages as he has been good at finding secondary targets. New Orleans has given up 15 touchdowns in 24 red zone chances on defense. The Saints offense is one of the best in the NFL, raking first in total yards, passing yards and first downs while ranking second in points scored. Slowing Drew Brees is a chore but it cane be done and the Giants have a defense to do so as they lead the NFL with 31 sacks by using various fronts and they have an athletic group of pass-rushers. Pressure is the key as letting Brees sit in the pocket will allow him to pick the secondary apart. The big edge for New York should be on the edges which will fore the pocket to collapse. The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a road win by six points or fewer while they are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games following a win by three points or less. The Giants fall into a great situation as well. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 that are coming off a loss as a division favorite. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 1983. The Giants are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring two touchdowns or less in their previous game. 10* (239) New York Giants |
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11-27-11 | New England Patriots v. Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 | 38-20 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 39 m | Show | |
This has turned into a big game for the Eagles as a win here and they sit just two games back in the NFC East. It has been a disaster of a season for Philadelphia but it is coming off a must win game last week against the Giants and carry big momentum into Sunday. The remaining schedule is not too difficult so it is feasible that the Eagles can still make things interesting heading into the final weeks of the season. The Eagles have outgained eight of 10 opponents this season and remain a very dangerous team.
New England is coming off an easy win Monday night against the Chiefs but it actually did not dominate as much as the final score shows. The defense put together its second best effort of the season but that isn't saying much against a team that was without its starting quarterback. The defense is still dead last in the NFL in yardage allowed and now squares off against the third ranked offense in the league. Vince Young was average last week but a game under his belt will definitely pay off here. The injury this week in practice to Eagles cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha is no doubt a big one but the unit is still a strong one and can rally around him if he is no miss the game. Getting pressure on Tom Brady is the key and he has struggled against top defenses this season. We also play against road favorites that are coming off a home win by 10 points or more going up against an opponent off a road win. This situation is 78-42 ATS (65 percent) since 1983. 8* (234) Philadelphia Eagles |
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11-27-11 | Chicago Bears +4 v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -108 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
The Bears opened as a point and a half favorite in this game and when it was confirmed that quarterback Jay Cutler will not be playing because of a broken thumb, the line has now moved 5.5 points with the Raiders now sizable home favorites. Is one player worth a move this big? I do not think so even though it is the quarterback as there are 21 other starters that will be on the field and we have seen it before where teams pick it up even more following the loss of their starting quarterback.
The Raiders are coming off two straight road games, both resulting in wins and they are now a game up in the AFC West. That might seem like it is a good situation here for Oakland but in actuality, it is not. The Raiders have been horrible in the role of favorites, going 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as a home chalk so the big line shift put them in a bad spot. The Raiders seemed to have turned the corner with their offense but last week they gained just 301 total yards and now face a defense that has really turned things around. With Caleb Hanie taking over at quarterback, expect to see a heavy dose of the running game for Chicago. The Raiders are 31st in the league in yards per attempt allowed at 5.2 ypc and over the last three games, it has gotten even worse as they are allowing 6.4 ypc. Look for another big game from Matt Forte. Play on underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after beating the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 40-17 ATS (70.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (229) Chicago Bears |
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11-27-11 | Cleveland Browns +7.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
The Bengals have lost two straight games and while this matchup seems like the perfect one to turn things around, it is not that simple. Cincinnati is coming off two physical games against the Steelers and Ravens and those are extremely difficult to recover from. Cincinnati is just two games ahead of the Browns yet it is being asked to lay a big number in a divisional game and the line shift from the first meeting is huge. It has moved two touchdowns which is simply too big of an adjustment.
After blowing a sure win two weeks ago, the Browns recovered with a win last week against Jacksonville. Cleveland has not played that bad this season with one exception being a game at Houston. On the season, the Browns are getting outgained by only 7.5 ypg as its defense is one of the most underrated units in the NFL. Cleveland is seventh in scoring defense and fifth in total defense and the Bengals offense has been way too inconsistent to think it can put together two straight solid games. Cincinnati put up over 400 yards of offense only one other time this season prior to last week and it came back with its second worst offensive performance the following week against the Jaguars. The Bengals have a rematch with Pittsburgh next week so we not only a letdown spot but a lookahead as well. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 38-14 ATS (73.1 percent) since 1983. 9* (219) Cleveland Browns |
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11-27-11 | Arizona Cardinals v. St. Louis Rams -1.5 | 23-20 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
We played on the Rams last week and while the situation was good, the offense did nothing against the Seattle defense. They catch a break this week as they face a much weaker defense in a much better situation. St. Louis 2-2 over its last two games following a dreadful 0-6 start and it will be out for some quick revenge. The Rams lost in Arizona earlier this month in overtime on a punt return that went 99 yards despite outgaining the Cardinals by 121 total yards. That was Sam Bradford's first game back as well.
Arizona is coming off a loss last week in San Francisco as it was dominated once again. The Cardinals have been outgained by at least 115 total yards in four of their last five games with the one exception being the upset win in Philadelphia. That is part of a very lucrative NFL situation that goes against teams in underdog roles playing their third straight road game as these teams are 11-24 ATS since 2002. Add to that, the Cardinals are a disastrous 8-24 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a losing record. The quarterback situation in Arizona continues to be a mess as Kevin Kolb looks like he will return following his Week Eight injury. He has a 77.8 passer rating on the season and his backup John Skelton, who played decent in his first two games, is coming off a putrid game last week where he put up a 10.5 passer rating. St. Louis also has a revenge situation in its favor as we play on home teams that are revenging a loss against opponent and coming off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 150-94 ATS (61.5 percent) since 1983. 9* (216) St. Louis Rams |
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11-27-11 | Carolina Panthers v. Indianapolis Colts +4 | Top | 27-19 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
The Colts are back after their bye week and at 0-10, are the lone team in the NFL without a win this season. They obviously are not getting the respect that they don't deserve but being home underdogs in this situation is just not right. After playing three straight road games, this is the third straight home game and with a bye week sandwiched in there, Indianapolis has spent all of November at home. The fact that the Colts have dropped six straight against the number in lining up the public on the side of the road team.
We had the Panthers last week and after building a 24-7 lead, things were looking pretty good. Carolina lost the lead but tied the game at 35 and then Detroit scored two touchdowns in 32 seconds no thanks to a Cam Newton inception in between. Now Carolina has to try and regroup off that devastating loss and it will be a challenge. Throw in the fact that the Panthers are 0-4 on the road this season doesn't bode well for a team that will have a tough time finding focus and being favored as well. The Panthers defense is not a good one as they are ranked 27th overall and 31st in points allowed. They have gotten worse each of the last four weeks as after allowing a respectable 325 yards against the Falcons, the yardage allowed has increased in each game since then. Play against teams in the second half of the season that are coming off a road loss by 14 points or more, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of ..250 or worse. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (224) Indianapolis Colts |
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11-24-11 | San Francisco 49ers v. Baltimore Ravens -3 | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show | |
The big story here is Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh and I feel the line value heavily favors the home Harbaugh. San Francisco is the big surprise of the NFL as it is 9-1 on the season including wins in eight straight games and feasibly could be 10-0 at this point as the game against Dallas was lost in overtime. The 49ers have also had some close calls along the way with their wins so a couple of those could have gone the other way too. San Francisco is riding an eight-game ATS streak and that helps with our value.
Baltimore scored another ugly win this past Sunday against the Bengals, its third such ugly win over the last four games. The win over Cincinnati was a big divisional victory and had the Ravens lost, the season could have been in jeopardy. Instead, they are in first place in the AFC North with a 7-3 record which is just the second time they have been 7-3 in the history of the Ravens franchise. Baltimore has a significant travel edge as well as it remains home after a home game while the 49ers travel east on a short week. This game is about the defenses as well as the coaches. Both the 49ers and Ravens have exceptional stop units as San Francisco is eighth in total defense, allowing 323.1 ypg while Baltimore is fourth, allowing 304.5 ypg. Against the rush, the Ravens are allowing only 3.3 ypc, the lowest mark in the NFL while the 49ers are allowing 3.6 ypc, fourth best in the league. On paper is seems like a wash but has not exactly been overly challenged, facing the league's fourth easiest schedule sand that makes a big difference. When it comes to opposing offenses, San Francisco has faced some bad ones. Only twice have they faced offenses ranked in the top 10 and only five offenses ranked better than 18th. In those games, San Francisco allowed an average of 392.4 ypg which is close to 70 ypg more than its season average allowed. In the other five games, the 49ers allowed only 253.8 ypg which is around 70 ypg less than its season average. That 140 ypg differential is massive and the Ravens are 15th in total offense, falling into the former group. The home field edge will only help things as will the night game aspect of it. San Francisco has yet to lose on the road with all games coming on the east coast which makes this is perfect contrarian opportunity for that first defeat. We also have a solid go against situation as we play against road underdogs or pickems after a win by 10 or more points going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 42-15 ATS (73.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (108) Baltimore Ravens |
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11-24-11 | Miami Dolphins v. Dallas Cowboys -7 | 19-20 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
Both Dallas and Miami have turned their seasons around as each is riding a three-game winning streak heading into this week. We need to figure out if they are legitimate turnarounds or frauds. In the case of Miami, it has played a tougher slate over this three-game stretch but it has not been nearly as dominant. The Dolphins are +60 yards over the three games while Dallas is +240 yards so the Cowboys have clearly been the more dominant team. Interestingly enough, they have played two common opponents also.
While Miami is trying to save Tony Sporano's season, the Cowboys are fighting for the playoffs and that is certainly a bigger motivator than playing for a lame duck coach. Dallas' run has coincided with a 1-2 Giants run and has vaulted the Cowboys into a first place tie in the NFC East. This is obviously a significant achievement because the Cowboys were once again getting the underachieving tag following their blowout road loss as Philadelphia, a team that is underachieving even more. As mentioned, Miami has been far from dominant in its three wins. The Dolphins have averaged 28.7 ppg on offense over this stretch which may make it look as though the offense has been playing at a high level. It hasn't. Miami has averaged only 287.7 ypg over this stretch and it put up only 242 yards against the Bills last week. Two touchdowns were scored after interceptions, totaling 27 yards, while a third touchdown came by way of a blocked punt. Things likely will not be hander over this easy this week. Dallas lost last Thanksgiving to the Saints but don't forget that Tony Romo did not play. Prior to that, the Cowboys won their previous five Thanksgiving Day games all by double-digits and by an average of 22.2 ppg. Granted, history can be thrown out the door in some cases but Dallas has always enjoyed a big edge here and now that it is actually playing for something again, that edge becomes even stronger. With a trip to Arizona on deck next week, do not expect a lookahead here. The Cowboys win last week against Washington was far from easy but they should be better off for it. They blew out the Bills and rolled over Seattle in their previous two games so an easy win last week might have hurt them here. Also, a lopsided Dolphins win last week will keep them focused as well. Play against road underdogs or pickems that are coming off a divisional win with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (106) Dallas Cowboys |
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11-24-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Detroit Lions +7 | Top | 27-15 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
It has been quite a while since Detroit has even been competitive on Thanksgiving Day but that is the case this season. The Lions have covered only once in their last nine Thanksgiving Day games and are currently on a 0-7 ATS run. The last win came against the Packers in 2003 and since then Detroit has lost by an average of 22.9 ppg with all losses coming by double-digits. Those are some ugly numbers but past history is history now with the Lions sitting at 7-3 and very much in the Wild Card hunt.
The Packers have not lost a non-preseason game that Aaron Rodgers has started since last season in Detroit when the Lions defeated Green Bay 7-3. That was the game Rodgers went down and the Packers went on to lose the following game against New England with Matt Flynn at quarterback. Green Bay has won 16 straight games since then and appears in no way of slowing down. This is a different Lions team as well as mentioned though and this is one of the biggest turkey day games for the Lions in recent history. The Packers took care of Tampa Bay this past Sunday but they were outgained for the fourth time in their last five games. The defense continues to have issues as it has allowed at least 424 total yards in four of its last five games and six times on the season. The Packers allowed Tampa Bay to pass for 334 yards, the most it has thrown for this season and the 455 total yards on offense was a season high for the Buccaneers. Even the 121 yards rushing was the second most Tampa Bay has gained this season. The Lions have a potent enough offense to move the ball and score points so if this game does end up being a track meet, the Lions can compete. They are coming off their highest offensive output of the season. Still, I feel that the Detroit defense could be the difference maker despite the gaudy Packers numbers. Detroit's defense is close to 70- ypg better than that of the Packers. Rodgers is having a special season no doubt but the Lions are allowing 6.0 ypa which is second best in the NFL. The breakout game from Detroit running back Kevin Smith was a good thing to see for the offense. The Packers are allowing only 102.5 ypg on the ground but that is skewed from teams passing late as they are allowing 4.7 ypc. The Lions fall into a solid league-wide situation here as well. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season after going over the total by more than 28 points in their previous game. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (104) Detroit Lions |
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11-20-11 | San Diego Chargers +4 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 29 m | Show |
We finally have a situation where the public is actually off the Chargers. While San Diego has been dreadful of late with four straight losses, we catch them in a great spot as it is a road underdog for the first time in its last four road games. The public has jumped ship but the sharp money struck early as it came in and knocked this number down from +4 to +3.5 despite a huge number of bets being on the Bears. Four straight ATS losses facing a team with four straight ATS wins puts the value on our side.
The Bears have been just the opposite as they have won four straight games while scoring a ton of points along the way. Chicago was able to revenge its earlier loss against the Lions last week with a resounding 24-point win. Or was it a resounding win? Detroit outgained the Bears 393-216 but committed six turnovers which led to 24 points, two interceptions which were directly returned for touchdowns on back-to-back possessions, while Chicago also returned a punt for a touchdown. Despite a two-game difference in records, the Chargers are +65.4 ypg in yardage differential while the Bears are -48.5 ypg in differential. To put it in perspective, San Diego is one of only three teams with a losing record that is on the plus side of the yardage variances while the Bears are one of only five teams with a winning record that is on the minus side of yardage variances. This shows how these teams are playing in regards to the results and the difference obviously has been turnovers. This game could once again come down to Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers and he has been having a tough season to say the least. He is facing a weak passing defense though as Chicago is having trouble in the middle with the safeties. San Diego has a collection of big deep threats who might present a lot of problems for the Bears' deep patrol. If Rivers attacks and doesn't force the issue, he could be in for one of his bigger games in weeks. The Bears are allowing 5.1 ypc so San Diego can exploit that as well. The Bears are just 3-16 ATS in their last 19 games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games while San Diego is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. San Diego also falls into a solid contrarian situation where we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams that are +/- 0.4 yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 94-53 ATS (63.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (435) San Diego Chargers |
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11-20-11 | Seattle Seahawks v. St. Louis Rams -2 | 24-7 | Loss | -125 | 68 h 47 m | Show | |
We won with Seattle last week as the Seahawks were able to dispose of the Ravens outright. That game was in Seattle however, where it is a much better team, and the Ravens situation was an extremely difficult one. They had just defeated the Steelers in the final seconds on Sunday night on the road and has to travel cross country for a non-conference game. That smelled like a letdown and it proved to be one right from the start. Kudos to Seattle for winning outright but it ends there.
The Rams have been one of this seasons biggest disappointments as they had a very promising 2010 season and were looking to carry that into this year. It did not happen. Injuries killed St. Louis from the start and they were not able to recover but they are getting healthier once again and while the playoffs are all but done, it is a time to get better. The Rams got away with a win last week in Cleveland but they can parlay that into this week and keep the momentum alive with a big divisional win. The Seahawks have lost four of five on the road this season and realistically, it should be 0-5 if not for the tipped pass in the Giants game which led to a pick six and a win over the Giants. Seattle is getting outgained by over 100 ypg on the road this season as the offense has been abysmal. The Seahawks have been held to 219 total yards or fewer in three of those five road games and while the Rams defense was lit up early, they have allowed three of their four lowest defensive yardage totals of the season. Rams quarterback Sam Bradford lost some of his receiving weapons early in the year and then he got hurt so he has been a big disappointment but not because of bad play. This is his third game back since the high ankle sprain which means three weeks of practice with his receivers and that is when things should turn around. Seattle's passing defense is not good as it allows a lot of yards but more important, it allows 6.9 ypa including 8.0 ypa on the road which is second worst in the NFL. The Seahawks have not responded well in these spots as they are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games coming off a home win, losing by over 18 ppg. They are also 4-15 ATS in their last road 19 games after allowing seven points or les in the first half in two straight games. Seattle also falls into a league-wide negative situation. Play against road teams that are coming off a win as a home underdog, after the first month of the season. This situation is 174-114 ATS (60.4 percent) since 1983. 8* (434) St. Louis Rams |
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11-20-11 | Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins +9 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 65 h 57 m | Show | |
Washington cost us a ticket last week but for the second week in a row, it was a lost turnover away from getting a possible cover. The Redskins were driving for the lead but Rex Grossman was picked off at the Miami 10-yard line and the Dolphins went down and scored so the 14-point swing did us in. Washington has lost five straight games against the number and that is a take. What also is a take is that this is a divisional game with the home team being over a touchdown underdog.
The Cowboys ambushed the Bills last week and America's Team is once again back in the public limelight and that only helps us when we are looking to fade. Dallas is getting over 80 percent of the action as of Wednesday afternoon but the has not moved which signals the sharp action came in early on Washington. The Cowboys have put up some duds on the road this season and it will take more than one big win over an overrated Buffalo team to sway us into believing the Cowboys are back. The Redskins again? The spots they were in the last two games were solid ones that did not work out that way because of turnovers plain and simple. There could have been a lack of focus in playing two non-divisional teams but seeing that Washington was only two games out of first place, focus should have been present. There is no doubt focus will be there this Sunday as this is the Redskins biggest rival and also note that six of the last seven and eight of the last 10 meetings have been decided six points or less. The Redskins have the third-most sacks in the NFL with 27 and have done well at pressuring opposing quarterbacks. In Dallas' last loss, quarterback Tony Romo was sacked four times versus the Eagles and was ineffective most of the game and don't be surprised he comes off the gem last week with a stinker this week. On the other side, Washington's offensive line can match up with Dallas's front seven so we will see more running than we saw last week as it will look to keep the Cowboys offense off the field. These are exactly the types of games that Dallas throws up on itself as it is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after a win by 28 or more points and it is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 road games after allowing nine points or less in its last game. Also, we play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. This situation is 53-24 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1983. 9* (430) Washington Redskins |
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11-20-11 | Carolina Panthers +7 v. Detroit Lions | 35-49 | Loss | -105 | 65 h 50 m | Show | |
I felt Detroit was an overrated team coming into the season and the feeling has not changed. The Lions opened the season 5-0 but have since dropped three of their last four games and the situation for them this week is a bad one. To their credit, the loss last week was not indicative of how the game played out as the Lions won the yardage battle by quite a bit as turnovers did them in. My feel is that Detroit should not be a touchdown favorite over a quality team with Green Bay at home on Thanksgiving looming.
Yes, Carolina actually is a quality team. Young for sure but the quality is there and that can be measured by the number of close losses the Panthers have suffered this season. The Panthers did not look good at home against Tennessee last week but despite that, they are still outgaining opponents by 38.6 ypg which is ninth best in the NFL. Detroit is eighth best at 41.6 ypg so does that really call for a touchdown difference? At times we need to look past the records to see what we are missing. The first half of the season was exceptional for the young Panthers despite the lack of wins but head coach Ron Rivera was disappointed to see his team take a step back in the lopsided loss to the Titans. Still, they were outgained by just 104 yards which was only the second time they were outgained the entire season. Cam Newton had a rare rough game and running the ball was a challenge. It happens. After that game, Rivera made it clear that more than halfway through the season the future would start now. The Lions have been fortunate along the way. They caught a break with Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs going down against them which seemed to take the life right out of Kansas City. The Lions also needed back-to-back miracle wins against the Vikings and Cowboys as the opposing offenses imploded down the stretch. At 6-3, Detroit could easily be 4-5 right now and even though there is no much talent, they are still not there yet. The injury to Matt Stafford only hurts matter even more. Carolina has two slid, time tested situations on its side. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a loss by 10 or more points going up against an opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. This situation is 51-17 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. Also, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg, after a loss by 14 or more points. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 8* (425) Carolina Panthers |
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11-20-11 | Oakland Raiders v. Minnesota Vikings +1.5 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 6 m | Show |
This is Minnesota's fist true winnable game since October 9th when it defeated Arizona at home. Since then, Minnesota has played three road games, and it did win one of those, while playing just one home game and that happened to come against Green Bay. The Vikings are coming off a Monday night debacle against the Packers in the rematch but while the final score shows a loss by 38 points, the game was not that much of a blowout as Minnesota did a lot of good things that can carried over.
Carson Palmer picked up his first win with the Raiders as they won at San Diego last Thursday but even though there is some extra rest involved here, it is not one of the best spots you will find as explained later. Oakland is coming off three straight divisional games and while it went just 1-2 in those contests, it takes its toll. The issue with the Raiders is their defense as they have been better but this is a unit that is still prone to giving up the big plays which gives the Vikings offense a chance. As mentioned, the Vikings did do some good things. Aaron Rodgers lit the defense up which was no surprise seeing that he has done that to every team this season as his lowest passer rating is 111.4. Minnesota held the Packers to 90 yards on 31 carries (2.9 ypc), the fourth time this season it has held a team to fewer than 100 yards rushing. That is big as the Raiders are fourth in the NFL in rushing with 156.2 ypg and fifth in rushing average with 5.0 ypc. The Vikings allow just 3.7 ypc on the season. On the other side, Minnesota averages more per rush than the Raiders with 5.2 ypc and the difference is that Oakland allows 5.2 ypc. Teams have been able to put up yards with off-tackle runs against the Raiders and the Vikings are huge on the right side. The Oakland passing defense has improved but a healthy dose of Adrian Peterson will open up the passing game and allow Christian Ponder to make some plays. He is coming off a bad game, his second against Green Bay but he rebounded big after the first meeting. Minnesota has been especially effective when coming off blowouts as it is a perfect 10-0 ATS in home games coming off a road loss of 21 or more points. Oakland meanwhile is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games against teams allowing 24 or more ppg and it falls into a negative situation. Play against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning percentage less than .250. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (424) Minnesota Vikings |
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11-17-11 | NY Jets -4.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -103 | 54 h 30 m | Show |
The Jets have a really good matchup advantage here and while betting road underdogs in this league is a long-term killer, it is the right spot here. New York is coming off a tough loss and playing on a short week with travel involved which is going to sway some toward the Denver side but this is an even tougher game for the Broncos in my opinion. Had the Jets defeated New England on Sunday, things would be different and they may have come into Denver flat but now this game is a must.
The short week of travel is being said to hurt the Jets however let's not forget that Denver played on the road Sunday as well so it also had to head back home following a road victory. The Broncos are feeling pretty good about themselves right now as they have won two straight game, both of which came on the road. While those were big wins, we have to take into account that they were divisional road wins which makes this a big letdown situation for the Broncos. The recipe for success for the Broncos has been a heavy dose of running ball so it is no secret what the Jets need to do on defense. Quarterback Tim Tebow is showing he is a versatile player but that is just with his running ability. He threw eight passes against the Chiefs, completing only two, while the week prior, he was just 10-21 against the Raiders. The Jets need to man up on the corners and load the box to stop the run. It is easier said than done but New York has the personnel to do it unlike the last two opponents. After three straight wins, the Jets could not get it done last week however a lot of that was due to the matchup as the Patriots simply do not lose three games in a row period. The AFC East race is now heavily in favor of New England because of the series sweep against New York and a favorite schedule the rest of the year which makes every game important for the Jets as they will be looking to secure a Wild Card play off spot. They have a lot of teams to contend with and not much room for error. Granted the Broncos are not going to lay down but again, this is not an easy spot for Denver. It is just 1-3 at home with the only win coming against the Bengals despite getting outgained. The Jets are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games coming off a divisional home loss and 6-1 ATS in their last seven gamers as a road favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. Meanwhile Denver is just 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games following a game played on the road and 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. 10* (307) New York Jets |
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11-14-11 | Minnesota Vikings +14 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
With the playoffs almost out of reach, Minnesota's season comes down to tonight. A win here would make the Vikings season as it would not only earn a season series split, but put an end to the defending Super Bowl Champions undefeated season. And it certainly is not out of the question. The Vikings played their best game of the season against Green Bay at the Metrodome in the first meeting. They are coming off a victory over Carolina and a bye week so the spot does in fact set up well.
Everyone is high on the Packers and for obvious reasons. The went on a huge run at the end of last season to claim the Super Bowl and are off to an 8-0 start this season. They are outscoring opponents by 12 ppg which is a big differential in this league but they have not been as dominating as you might think as they are outgaining foes by 16.8 ypg. That yardage differential is only 12th in the NFL and is actually fourth worst of all teams with a positive variance. Part of the reason for this is the Packers defense which is not very good. Sure, a lot of yards against them do come in garbage time but the fact of the matter is that it is not a lock down defense. Green Bay is ranked 31st in passing defense, allowing 299.6 ypg and Vikings rookie quarterback Christian Ponder has injected some life into the offense with his third-down passing success, widening rushing lanes for Adrian Peterson in the process. Peterson is still one of the best running backs in the NFL. Defensively is where Minnesota will be challenged as they allowed 421 total yards in the first meeting but 79 of those came on one play. The Vikings sacked Rodgers four times and forced the Packers into three straight three-and-outs in the second half because of the pressure. Getting pressure on Aaron Rodgers again will be important and the return of cornerback Antoine Winfield is huge for the Vikings as they will be using blitz packages utilizing him which has had a lot of success in the past. The public is riding the Packers yet again here but the line has actually come down so the reverse line movement is in our favor. Green Bay is just 7-16-2 ATS in its last 25 games as a double-digit favorite and the Vikings fall into a great contrarian situation. Play against home teams after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last five seasons. The underdog has covered 18 of the last 25 meetings in this series. 10* (245) Minnesota Vikings |
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11-13-11 | New England Patriots +2 v. NY Jets | Top | 37-16 | Win | 100 | 58 h 37 m | Show |
The Patriots are coming off two straight losses and that is a rarity in those parts. It has actually only happened seven times since 2001 which was Tom Brady's first season as starter, and New England is 5-2 in those follow up games. It has only happened twice since 2006 and the Patriots are 2-0 in that third game. The point is that New England does not lose often consecutively and we will see its best effort this Sunday night and what better team to take it out on than the hated Jets.
New York is going the other way as it has won three straight games with a bye week mixed in there as well so it has not tasted defeat since October 9th. The opponent? New England. That was a big revenge game for the Patriots after last year's home playoff loss to the Jets but the Patriots are the better team. The line is telling us something as well as New England closed as a 7.5-point chalk in the first meeting which would make then a point and a half favorite here which is clearly is not. The Patriots have lost their last two games against top quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning. Mark Sanchez is not on that list. Granted he is having his best year in his third year starting but his passer rating is a meager 84.0 which is right in the middle of the pack for starting quarterbacks. He gets to face the worst defense in the NFL but the Jets struggled on offense and with linebacker Jerod Mayo back in the lineup, the Patriots allowed their second fewest amount of yards on the season. There is talk about Patriots quarterback being in a slump and saying his peak is done. Well, he has a quarterback rating of 100 on the nose this season, one of only three quarterbacks that can claim that. Granted he is coming off his worst game of the season with a 75.4 rating and the last time he had a rating in the 70's, he followed that up with a near perfect rating of 142.6. Throughout his career he rarely has back-to-back bad games and I don't expect that to change here. As mentioned, the Patriots have done awesome following rare, consecutive losses and head coach Bill Belichick has thrived in this situation. Since taking over in New England he is 12-4 ATS in his 16 road games following a loss as a favorite, 7-1 ATS in his eight games as an underdog after a loss as a favorite and 13-5 ATS in his 18 games coming off a home loss. New England is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games as a road underdog while going 10-2 ATS the last 12 meetings with the Jets in New York. 10* (243) New England Patriots |
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11-13-11 | Baltimore Ravens v. Seattle Seahawks +7 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 53 h 53 m | Show | |
We won with Baltimore last week in a last second ticket casher but we will be going against the Ravens this week. This spot is very similar to the spot Kansas City was in last week but only tougher. The Chiefs used up a ton of energy in their game against the Chargers on Monday night and they came out flat against the Dolphins last Sunday. The Ravens played Sunday night so they aren't in a short week of preparation but they are on the road and all the way out west to make it worse.
Seattle is coming off a game at Dallas in which it lost but covered. The Seahawks were outgained by just 61 yards in that game but they were killed by miscues similar to the game the previous week against the Bengals. They were down by eight points but allowed a punt return for a touchdown and then had an interception returned for a touchdown. Outgaining the Bengals by 159 total yards was for naught as the final score did not indicate what actually went on in the game. This is just the fourth home game of the season for Seattle, going 1-2 in the previous three games but all three were there for the taking. The Seahawks are on the plus side of the yardage variances which is always a key factor when playing the role of underdog. Facing the Baltimore defense is going to be a challenge as the offense has been inept at times. Seattle has scored fewer than 20 points six times including its last three but it opened the season the same way and came back with 28 and 36 points after that. Baltimore has had its own share of problems on offense. The Ravens are seventh in the league in points scored but just 16th in total yards and they have been even worse on the road, averaging just 321 ypg and 20.0 ppg. The Seahawks play the kind of 4-3 defense that has given the Ravens occasional trouble in the past and the defense has been playing at a top level at times. They have allowed four touchdowns via turnovers or special teams so their ppg allowed average drops from 23.1 to 19.6. Seattle has excelled under head coach Pete Carroll in these spots as it is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following two or more consecutive losses while going a perfect 5-0 ATS overall after scoring 17 points or fewer in five straight games. The Seahawks also fall into a solid situation. Play on home teams in the second half of the season with a win percentage of .250 or worse after three or more consecutive losses, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 28-6 ATS (82.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (240) Seattle Seahawks |
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11-13-11 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Indianapolis Colts +3 | 17-3 | Loss | -100 | 51 h 57 m | Show | |
Here we go again. Call me stupid, call me stubborn, call me a masochist but call me a contrarian while doing so. The Colts have bitten us twice in the past two weeks and three times this year but we are going back to the well one more time as they are getting points from a team that is nearly as bad and that should not be favored on the road. Indianapolis should not be favored here either but this game should be listed as a pickem however the linesmakers are forced to dog the Colts for obvious reasons.
Indianapolis outgained Tennessee two weeks ago but fell behind 13-0 because of two field goals of more than 50 yards and a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown. Last week, it fell behind 14-0 because of a fumble on its second play from scrimmage and then a miraculous touchdown catch by Julio Jones. This is a team that cannot play catch up as the offense does not have the ability to win in a shootout no longer. That is what makes this week's spot a solid one to grab that elusive first victory. Jacksonville started the season with a win over Tennessee who was breaking in a new coach and new personnel and with the way the Titans have looked recently, that win is not looking so good anymore. The Jaguars then lost five straight games before the big upset on Monday night that everyone witnessed against Baltimore. They were then throttled two weeks ago by Houston despite only losing by 10 points as the game was worse than the final indicates. Plain and simply, this is a bad team. The Jaguars are getting outgained by 64.4 ypg which is the third biggest variance in the NFL and while the Colts easily are the worst in the league in this category, they are catching a break finally. Three of their games have come against teams with the best variances (Houston, New Orleans and Pittsburgh) and in the two games they have played against teams with variances of -50 ypg or worse, they had the lead late in the fourth quarter of each game before losing late so they can compete against these bad teams. Road favorites coming off a bye have been money as they are 13-1-1 ATS in their last 15 games but road favorites are meant for good teams and as mentioned, Jacksonville is not part of that group. Indianapolis falls into a great contrarian situation as well. Play on home teams with a defense allowing 360 or more ypg, after gaining 4.0 or fewer yppl and allowing 6.5 or greater yppl last game. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. The losing streak comes to an end this week. 9* (222) Indianapolis Colts |
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11-13-11 | Washington Redskins +4 v. Miami Dolphins | 9-20 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 40 m | Show | |
We won with Miami last Sunday against the Chiefs in an ultimate letdown spot for Kansas City. Now that Miami has just gotten its first win of the season, where does that put the Dolphins this week? The Dolphins situation goes back even further as it dropped that Tim Tebow comeback game against the Broncos, dropped that hard fought battle with the Giants and then finally broke through last week. That is a tough three-game string to come back from no mater how much momentum was gathered.
Washington has lost four in a row and last week's loss to the 49ers was a frustrating one to watch. The Redskins committed three turnovers, two of which led to 10 points for San Francisco that came on drives of a combined 52 yards. The 49ers defense is capable of performances like that as they lead the NFC in takeaways. And then we have the Dolphins which are tied for the NFL low with just four takeaways. The Redskins finally catch a break as the offense will be able to produce. Miami put up 351 total yards against the Chiefs, its third highest offensive output of the season which shows how bad it has been. Its best two games on offense in Week One and Week Three were followed up with two of its worst next time out so while quarterback Matt Moore and the offense can be commended on a great performance, don't get too excited. The Dolphins are 25th in the NFL in scoring with 17.3 ppg and they are facing a legitimate defense that brings pressure to the quarterback and allows just 19.8 ppg. As mentioned, the Washington offense is in much better shape because of the opposition it is facing but also because this is the third week that the unit has been together. Injuries have forced a lot of replacements and with a couple games and a few weeks of practice under their belts, the chemistry is coming along. While the Dolphins don't force turnovers, they have trouble stopping the opposition as they are 25th in total defense and the numbers are even worse at home where they are allowing a whopping 425 ypg. While Miami isn't the worst 1-7 team we have ever seen, there is no way it should be favored by more than a field goal at home and that is where the value comes into play here. The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following consecutive ATS wins and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after a win by 14 or more points as an underdog. They are 0-9 ATS as a favorite between 3.5 and 9.5 points while Washington head coach Mike Shanahan is 10-1 ATS after losing five or six of his last seven games. 8* (229) Washington Redskins |
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11-13-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
The Steelers are coming off a demoralizing home defeat against the Ravens last week. That sets them up very well this week against arguably the most overrated team in the league. More on that later. Pittsburgh was rolling along with four straight wins before losing in the final seconds Sunday night and with a big divisional game here, we can expect a big bounceback. The Steelers have covered six straight games since last season following a loss and it has not been close, winning those games a combined 179-44.
We have cashed some tickets with the Bengals this year and at 6-2, 7-1 against the number, they have been a pleasant surprise. However, who have they played? Cincinnati has played the 27th ranked schedule in the NFL and its opponents have a combined record of 26-39. They have played only two teams that have winning records, the 49ers and Bills, and those two teams are nearly as overrated. The Bengals are outgaining opponents by just 15 ypg despite what they have been handed by the schedulemakers. The Cincinnati defense looks good on paper as it is ranked fourth in the NFL in both yardage allowed and points given up but they have played only one team with a pulse on offense and that was Buffalo which is now 12th in total offense. The other offenses they have faced are ranked 27th, 29th, 31st, 32nd, 26th, 20th and 30th in total offense which is why they have been so good on defense. This week, they face a Steelers offense that is ranked ninth in the NFL in yardage, making it the biggest challenge yet. The Steelers meanwhile are third in the league in total defense and fifth in scoring defense so they pose a huge challenge for the Cincinnati offense. Cincinnati has already faced three top ten defenses, Cleveland, San Francisco and Jacksonville. The offense has managed just 19.3 ppg in those games (taking away a fumble return against the Jaguars) while gaining only 253.7 ypg which is nearly 100 ypg fewer (353.8 ypg) than they are averaging in their other five games against poor defenses. You make the call. This totally goes against the theory of playing divisional home underdogs but the value in this line is simply too strong not to take the Steelers for a big play. Plus the Steelers have owned this series of late as Pittsburgh is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games played in Cincinnati. They also fall into a potent situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 in conference games, off a home loss by three points or less. This situation is 43-19 ATS (69.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (217) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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11-06-11 | Baltimore Ravens +3.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 58 h 20 m | Show | |
With the way Baltimore has played the last two weeks compared to the way Pittsburgh has played the last two weeks, it comes as no surprise that the public is already hammering the Steelers. They are getting close to three-quarters of the early action and yet we have seen the line move very minimal. Pittsburgh is playing with revenge from that season opening embarrassment but this has been such a tightly contested series throughout the last few years, revenge really isn't even a factor.
The Ravens were rolling along with three straight wins, averaging 33.3 ppg in the process, then they ran into a tough Jacksonville defense two weeks ago on Monday night and the offense put up a dud. The same thing happened last week at home against the Cardinals for a half but it was mistakes as opposed to a bad offense that was to blame. Baltimore picked it up in the second half with 24 points and it finished with 405 total yards so the offense comes into this game on a high. They catch the Steelers at the right time. Pittsburgh is coming off a big win over New England which has heightened the public perception of the Steelers. The thing is, Pittsburgh's defense matched up well with the Patriots as they were able to man up with the receivers but Baltimore has big and fast wideouts and it can make big plays over the top, something New England could not do. Making matters worse, James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley are doubtful while James Farrior is very questionable. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was sacked four times in the first meeting and last week he was sacked five times against New England, which had just 10 sacks on the season coming in. The Ravens are second in the NFL with 25 sacks. Big Ben has 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions during the Steelers four-game winning streak but the highest ranked defense they faced was Jacksonville at 13th. Baltimore is first in total defense, second in scoring defense, third in passing defense and third in rushing defense. A Baltimore win puts it at 6-2 and a half-game lead over Pittsburgh but in reality it is game and a half lead because it swept the season series, giving it the head-to-head tiebreaker. Pittsburgh may want revenge from that opening loss but this game is just as big for Baltimore. The Ravens fall into a solid situation where we play against teams coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 131-70 ATS (65.2 percent) since 1983. 9* (429) Baltimore Ravens |
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11-06-11 | Green Bay Packers v. San Diego Chargers +6.5 | 45-38 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 20 m | Show | |
The Chargers played good enough to win on Monday night and cash a ticket if not for the stupid penalties, turnovers and other miscues that took place against the Chiefs. Obviously those issues are something we cannot predict so that game falls into the 'right side, wrong result category' but the actual straight up loss sets up a nice number for us here. The Chargers have not played a home game in a month as they have played three consecutive roadies with a bye sandwiched in there.
Green Bay is the cr |
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11-06-11 | Denver Broncos +9 v. Oakland Raiders | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 12 m | Show | |
Denver was a bad call last week but because of the Broncos wretched performance against the Lions, we are getting exceptional value with them this week. One week after Tim Tebow was a hero, he because the goat but he should be able to bounce back this week in his first divisional start. The AFC West is once again a weak division and despite a 2-5 record, Denver is only two games behind the rest of the pack so there is still a lot to fight for and it continues in Oakland.
The Raiders are coming off their bye week which came right after their debacle at home against the Chiefs as they threw six interceptions which let to a 28-0 shutout. The bye week came at a good time as it gave Carson Palmer more time to become familiar with the offense but it did not provide a lot more practice time as the new NFL CBA mandated four off days for players. Three of the Raiders four wins this season have resulted in them getting outgained by their opponent so things could be a lot worse now. Going back to the quarterback situation, Carson Palmer was brought in after Jason Campbell went down with a broken collarbone which was unfortunate because he was having a solid season. Not only has Palmer not played in close to a year, he was not that good to begin with as his passer rating declined in each full season he was with the Bengals. Making matters worse for him Darren McFadden |
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11-06-11 | Atlanta Falcons v. Indianapolis Colts +7.5 | 31-7 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 9 m | Show | |
We lost with the Colts last week but the deal is that Indianapolis played good enough to win the game. They outgained Tennessee by 88 total yards but redzone difficulties did them in. they were inside the Titans five-yard line on four different occasions and they came away with only 10 points as they were stopped on four down twice in their final two possessions. After three straight road games, Indianapolis if finally back home and that will provide a big boost as it goes after that elusive first win.
Atlanta took care of the Lions in its last game prior to its bye and while we cashed a ticket with that win, that was more of a case of going against Detroit and the situation at hand. The Falcons are not a very good road team despite winning two straight and with a home game against New Orleans on deck for next week, getting fully focused against a winless team is going to be a challenge. The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win. The Falcons are coming off their bye week and it is well documented how good road favorites have been coming off a bye week since the inception of the week of rest but things are different this season. Said teams are just 2-2 ATS after going 33-11 ATS the previous nine seasons. The situation makes since as road favorites are typically very good teams and those are the teams that prepare very well during their time off. The new CBA has put a stop to that though as these teams are not able to practice as much. The last time the Colts were at home, they were favored by a point over the Chiefs and now they go touchdown underdogs which is an overadjustment based on what has gone on since then. Everyone talks about how bad the Indianapolis rushing defense as it allows the second most yards in the league but that is bound to happen when teams are sitting on leads. The Colts allow 4.2 ypc which is in the top half of the league and not far back from Atlanta (4.0 ypc). Indianapolis is allowing only 3.7 ypc at home. Indianapolis falls into two contrarian situations that go back a long way. First, play on underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season. This situation is 73-34 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (that are getting outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg, after scoring 17 points or fewer in three straight games. This situation is 104-61 ATS (63 percent) since 1983. 8* (406) Indianapolis Colts |
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11-06-11 | Miami Dolphins +4.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 51 h 27 m | Show |
Kansas City is riding a four-game winning streak but it is one of the worst runs of this sort that you will witness. The Chiefs snuck out a win against the Vikings, made a 21-point comeback against the Colts, defeated a Raiders team that had to play backup quarterbacks and then won against the Chargers in overtime despite getting outgained by 106 total yards. The confidence is there but coming off that huge win Monday where mentally and physically they put everything into, it spells massive letdown.
You have to give the Dolphins credit for not quitting. After that demoralizing loss against the Broncos two weeks ago, they took to the road and nearly took out the Giants. Surprisingly that was their first cover of the season although sitting at 0-7, it may not be that surprising after all. However what is definitely surprising is this short line. A winless team getting just over a field goal on the road signals something fishy. The fact that three quarters of the bats are on Kansas City and the line has dropped a point is also a signal. The big challenge for Kansas City is to not avoid a letdown but that is almost inevitable. The Chiefs played their asses off on Monday and in reality, they should have lost by a couple touchdowns based on how the game played out. They allowed San Diego to enter inside their 32-yard line nine times but the Chargers own mistakes resulted in just one touchdown being scored. Kansas City may have some confidence brewing from that victory but it is a false sense of confidence. Looking at some numbers, the Dolphins are getting outgained by 61.7 ypg while the Chiefs are getting outgained 65.2 ypg. It is pretty rare to see a team that is four games better with their record getting beat more on the field as far as yardage goes. The rushing dog comes into play here as well. The Dolphins average more ypc on offense than Kansas City (4.3 ypc to 4.1 ypc) allow fewer ypc on defense (3.9 ypc to 4.1 ypc) and are plus in their own ypc average (4.3 ypc to 3.1 ypc). That's a take. The Dolphins fall into two very solid situations. First, play against favorites coming off a divisional win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1983. Second, play on road underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. On top of it, the Chiefs are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. 10* (413) Miami Dolphins |
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11-06-11 | San Francisco 49ers v. Washington Redskins +4 | Top | 19-11 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 17 m | Show |
Washington is coming off a dreadful game in Toronto against the Bills and head home to lick their wounds. The Redskins have now dropped three straight games, both straight up and against the number, and while injuries can be to blame, it has been a case of bad timing. Philadelphia was in need of a win after four straight losses, Carolina was coming off three straight losses and Buffalo was coming off a loss as well as its bye week. They caught three desperate teams in a row and now the role changes this week.
There has not been a weaker 6-1 team in the NFL in years and San Francisco fits the bill. Hats off to head coach Jim Harbaugh in what he has accomplished thus far but he is somehow doing it with smoke and mirrors. San Francisco has not lost a game against the spread, as it does possess one push against the Cowboys, and that is putting the pressure on the linesmakers as they have to inflate these lines as the public has, and will, continue to ride the train out. It derails this week however. When I say smoke and mirrors, the 49ers are 6-1 despite getting outgained by 20.1 ypg. That is certainly something that is a rare feat. On the other side, the Redskins are getting outgained by 23.3 ypg and how is that different than San Francisco? It isn't and the only reason the 49ers come in as a road chalk is because of their record and as we all know, records can be deceiving. The 49ers are +10 in turnover differential while the Redskins are -6 which is the difference and we will see those come back to the median. Taking a quick look at line comparisons from last week to this shows a huge overadjustment. The Redskins were getting four points against the Bills which was saying that Buffalo is a point better (based on a neutral field). This weeks line is saying that the 49ers are 6.5 points better (based on a neutral field) and I will be the first to argue that the 49ers are not 5.5 points better than the Bills. And I will certainly argue that they are not 6.5 points better than the Redskins. San Francisco is a perfect 3-0 on the road this season with all three of those wins coming on the east coast in early afternoon games. With the history of how bad that normally goes, it is impressive but time has run out on it here. Washington falls into a solid contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems that are allowing 335 or more ypg, after gaining 4.0 or less and allowing 6.5 or more yppl last game. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (416) Washington Redskins |
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10-31-11 | San Diego Chargers -3 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -101 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
After starting the season 0-3, the Chiefs have rebounded with three straight wins to even their record at .500. We won with them last week but they weren't played because they were the better team but because it was a good situational spot. Kansas City had to come from behind against the lowly Colts prior to that and snuck out a win against the at the time winless Vikings. The Chiefs first two losses came against the Bill and Lions and in my opinion, both of those teams are not as good as their record states.
San Diego enters this game following a disappointing loss against the Jets last Sunday as it lost an 11-point lead on two different occasions. Both losses have come on the road against AFC East teams, the Patriots being the other, and the Chiefs cannot be put into that category. San Diego's four wins have been against teams that are much worse and it outgained them by a combined 649 total yards. This included a win at home against Kansas City in a game that was not as close as the score indicated. Turnovers have plagued the Chargers but they should be better this week. Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates each practiced Wednesday and Thursday, the first time that |
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10-30-11 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Seattle Seahawks +3 | 34-12 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 60 m | Show | |
Seattle went into its bye week feeling pretty good about going 2-1 in its previous three games but despite another solid effort from the defense, the Seahawks fell short in Cleveland. They head back home to take on another AFC North team in Cincinnati and going back to Seattle is a positive. Four of the Seahawks first six games were on the road and this is the start of a five-game in seven homestand that is a critical time. Starting strong here is important with a road game at Dallas on deck.
The Bengals were off last week and we have seen the bye weeks really hurt a lot of teams when they are coming back, especially these middle of the road teams. We have won with Cincinnati a couple times this year and it is 5-1 ATS so far but I don't think it is quite in the position to be laying points on the road unless it is against the real bad teams and Seattle is not in that category. The Bengals have had the luxury of playing their road games in Cleveland, Denver and Jacksonville so this is the toughest road test to date. After scoring 30 points in its first three games, Seattle put up 64 points in its two games prior to the bye week but last week was a disaster with Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback. The good news is that Tarvaris Jackson should be back under center and while his is no stud, he is an upgrade. According to Twitter, Jackson took the first-team reps during walk-thru Wednesday morning and will share snaps with Whitehurst in practice this week. Getting Marshawn Lynch back is also a big boost for the offense. Cincinnati has a strong defense, ranked second in the NFL in yards allowed so it won't be easy for Seattle but the Bengals have played the 26th ranked schedule in the NFL. On the other side, the Seahawks defense is playing extremely well and they lead the league in rushing average at just 3.1 ypc. That will be a problem for the Cincinnati offense that will be without Cedric Benson who is serving a one game suspension. Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has been good but playing at CenturyLink Field will be a tough test. The Seahawks went 6-3 at home last season and even though it is 1-1 this year, the loss came by only two points. Seattle is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a road underdog while the Bengals are 3-8 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite and 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after a bye. Also, we play on underdogs or pickems after a playing a game where 10 total points or less were scored. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983 including a perfect 4-0 ATS over the last three seasons. 8* (228) Seattle Seahawks |
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10-30-11 | Washington Redskins +7 v. Buffalo Bills | 0-23 | Loss | -130 | 55 h 57 m | Show | |
Buffalo returns home following a loss against the Giants in New York and then its bye week. The problem is that while this is a home game, it is taking place in Toronto, the fourth time the Bills have been forced to play a game north of the border. Fans in Toronto have packed the Rogers Centre the last three times but it is far from a partisan Bills crowd which takes away from any home field edge. Not to mention, there are well over 20,000 less people in the seats.
It is no secret that the Redskins are a banged up team right now as Tim Hightower, Santana Moss and Chris Cooley are all out for this one. With the exception of Cooley, I don't think it is that big of a deal as the replacements are well equipped to shoulder the load. Washington has dropped two straight games since its bye week and while this is its fourth road game in the last five contests, this is hardly a true road game as mentioned above. But the Redskins are still getting a road team price on the line. The Bills are not without their own injury issues. Linebacker Shawne Merriman, who was looking good in a comeback season, has been shut down for the season because of his bas Achilles and even worse, nose tackle Kyle Williams is out again because of an ankle injury. That hurts a bills defense that is being gashed for 420.5 ypg, second to last in the NFL, including a whopping 462 ypg over their last five games. Washington is 14th overall in total offense and will have a solid showing here. Redskins coach Mike Shanahan said he needs to do a better job of preparing his team and said his defense wasn't ready for what Carolina threw at it. While they have surrendered a lot of yards the last two games, the Redskins defense is very aggressive and can be stingy if it gets a feel for what an offense is trying to establish. Washington likes to bring pressure and its 21 sacks are tied for first in the NFL. Buffalo has allowed only four sacks but three came against the Giants and left tackle Demetrius Bell is out again this week. Washington is only one game worse than the Bills but the clincher is that it is outgaining its opponents on the season while the Bills are getting outgained by their opponents. Buffalo has lost the yardage battle in each of its last four games and it feasibly could be out over that stretch if not for a 93 turnover edge. Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog between 3.5 and 10 points while the Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as favorites of the same parameter. 9* (219) Washington Redskins |
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10-30-11 | Detroit Lions v. Denver Broncos +3 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 10 m | Show |
The Lions remain a public darling despite their recent struggles. They have lost two straight games, both coming at home, and they really have not shown much since starting the year with two impressive wins over Tampa Bay and Kansas City. The offense has managed only 19.7 ppg over its last three games and despite being 3-0 on the road, Detroit has won those games by an average of just 4.7 ppg and two of those games took miracle second half comebacks to accomplish.
I am not jumping on the Tim Tebow bandwagon but I have to admit I was impressed with what he did at the end of last week's game against the Dolphins in bringing Denver back for the win in overtime. The win snapped a three-game losing streak for the Broncos and sitting sat 2-4, they have played better than that record shows. Three of the losses came by an average of 3.7 ppg while the fourth came at Green Bay which comes as no big surprise. The victory last week will provide some solid momentum. We played against the Lions last week and won and a big reason for that was the non-existent running game for Detroit. It managed only 104 yards on the ground last week and is now averaging just 92.7 ypg on the season. Denver falls into the popular rushing dog scenario that Atlanta did last week. The Broncos average more ypc on offense than Detroit (4.4 ypc to 4.1 ypc) allow fewer ypc on defense (3.9 ypc to 5.0 ypc) and are plus in their own ypc average (4.4 ypc to 3.9 ypc). Michael Turner rushed for 122 yards last week and prior to that, the Lions allowed San Francisco to run for a 203 yards. Overall the Lions rushing defense is 28th in the league. On the other side, Jahvid Best is once again out with a concussion and without a huge threat of a Lions' running game, the Broncos can key on Matthew Stafford and the passing game. Stafford is listed as questionable but will likely play since he has been practicing this week but his effectiveness comes into question. Denver falls into one of the best league-wide systems you can find. We play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1983. Making the situation even stronger is the fact that Detroit is a favorite again this week. Denver has been a horrible spread team over the last couple years but it is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog of a field goal or less. 10* (222) Denver Broncos |
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10-30-11 | Indianapolis Colts +9 v. Tennessee Titans | 10-27 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 58 m | Show | |
This one is ugly but winning in the NFL comes down to ugly winning. The Colts were hammered on national television last Sunday night to drop to 0-7 and all Peyton Manning can do is watch. It is an unfortunate regression for one of the best franchises in recent memory and while the season may be done, the fight needs to continue. Indianapolis has been outgained in all seven games and while it looks pretty hopeless to see any sort of reversal, this should be the ideal spot for this to happen.
Tennessee is coming off an embarrassing loss of its own as the Texans won by 34 points and the Titans were outgained by 370 total yards. Because this is the second straight home game and the fact the Colts arte horrible, the public will be backing the Titans for a big bounceback but it will not be as easy as that. Tennessee has outgained only two opponents this season, the Ravens which were coming in off a letdown win, and the Broncos, which ended up being just a three-point game. The Colts' 55-point loss Sunday night at New Orleans not only is the most lopsided in Indianapolis history, it's tied for the fourth-worst loss in the NFL since 1960. The titans know the feeling. In 2009 they started the season 0-6 culminated by a 59-0 loss to the Patriots. They came back in their next game and won against Jacksonville. The only other time this occurred in the modern era was when the Jaguars defeated the Dolphins 62-7 but that was in a playoff game so Miami had no chance for a response. Asking Tennessee to win by double-digits after it has averaged just 12 ppg in its last two games, is asking too much. Since taking over as full-time starter in the fourth game, Colts quarterback Curtis Painter has posted ratings of 99.4, 115.8 and 79.0 before crashing with a 38.1 rating last week. So overall he has not been that bad and his 85.2 season rating is 12th in the NFL and his counterpart Matt Hasselbeck has a rating not far off at 87.7, which is 11th in the league. The Colts have tow situations in their favor here. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a loss by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. Also, we play on teams that are averaging between 14.5 and 18.0 ppg on offense, going up teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing 40 or more points last game. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 9* (207) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-30-11 | Arizona Cardinals v. Baltimore Ravens -12 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
We won by playing against Baltimore on Monday night as the Ravens looked pretty inept against the Jaguars. This is a great spot to bounceback however and don't let the big spread lure you away as this number could be a lot higher. Baltimore has had success in situations like this coming off bad offensive games as it has gone a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the number under quarterback Joe Flacco after a game scoring in single digits while averaging 25.3 ppg in those three follow up games.
Arizona is coming off a tough home loss against the Steelers in a game it felt it could have won coming in. Instead, the Cardinals have lost five straight games and while the first three defeats were rather close, the last two have not been and now they hit the road once again for an early east coast game. The first time in this situation, Arizona played well against the Redskins but it has been hit with the injury bug and now it will be going into a lions den at M&T Bank Stadium. Monday was one of Baltimore's worse games on offense in a while and as mentioned, it has come back strong in its next game. In its first loss this season, which came against a similar AFC South team Tennessee, the Ravens bounced back strong and destroyed St. Louis, another NFC West team. The best thing in our corner is that the game against Jacksonville came on Monday night for the whole world to see and that will get the Ravens even more fired up to make amends. The Cardinals offense is struggling behind first year starter Kevin Kolb as he has posted a quarterback rating of 78.8 (ironically it is higher than Flacco) and he will be facing the best defense in the NFL in terms of both total defense and scoring defense. Running back Beanie Wells, who was having a great season up until last week when he got hurt, says he will play this week but it is not a wise decision if he does go as he could be putting the rest of his season in jeopardy. Baltimore gained a mere 146 yards of offense last week but the Cardinals have the seventh worst offense in the NFL and the Ravens are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games after gaining 200 or fewer yards in their previous game. Baltimore also falls into a solid situation. Play on favorites that are outscoring opponents by four or more ppg, after scoring and allowing 14 or fewer points. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Look for a start to finish romp Sunday. 10* (216) Baltimore Ravens |
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10-24-11 | Baltimore Ravens v. Jacksonville Jaguars +11 | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Baltimore is a very popular play already and it will be even more so once we get closer to game time simply because the Ravens are a public team and they are a Monday night favorite. We have not seen a lot of reverse line movement on this game even though the line has come down in a lot of places. The number is holding steady between 8.0 and 9.0 points depending on the shop and there is no real difference between these two lines as neither are key numbers and the nines that are available are mostly for teaser protection.
The Ravens have won and covered three straight games and by doing so in dominating fashion, they have forced linesmakers to inflate this line. The last road game for Baltimore was a month ago when it went to St. Louis an annihilated the Rams. The Ravens were favored by only 4.5 points in that game and even though it was a blowout, the line difference is significant. On paper, Baltimore has every edge on the field but if games were played on paper, there would be no excitement. Jacksonville has lost five straight games after opening the season with a win over Tennessee. Turnovers killed the Jaguars against the Jets, a monsoon against Carolina diminished a good game, but then they played two solid games back-to-back against the Saints and Bengals as both were close until late in the game. Both of those games were at home as well where they have played much better than on the road. Last week against the Steelers, there was quit as they made it a respectable game and there will be no quit here. As mentioned, Baltimore has advantages in key areas but the Jaguars have a solid rushing attack that they can take advantage of as Baltimore's rushing defense regresses away from home. Looking at the quarterbacks, Ravens Joe Flacco has a passer rating of 79.6 while Jaguars Blaine Gabbert has a rating of 71.1 and those are not that far off from each other. In 19 redzone chances this season, the Ravens have been forced to settle for 10 field goals and have scored just seven touchdowns to rank 29th in redzone offense in the NFL. The favorites have covered the last two Monday night games and the books have paid the price as the public has made a killing. That isn't to say the favorite won't cover again but we definitely like the chances better here with the home underdog. Jacksonville falls into a solid situation as well where we play on home underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or less after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 108-56 ATS (65.9 percent) since 1983. 9* (426) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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10-23-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings +9.5 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 72 h 53 m | Show |
The Vikings were throttled in Chicago with the whole world to see and now facing the Packers, they will certainly not be a popular pick this week among bettors. The game was not as bad as the final score indicated as Minnesota was outgained by only 91 total yards but an early third quarter kickoff return for a touchdown did the Vikings in. Now they are back home for another divisional game and this time the points are plentiful. The line has actually come down despite the vast majority of bets being on the Packers.
Green Bay enters the final game before its bye coming off another lopsided win although it was not as dominant as the final score showed. The Rams outgained Green Bay but were pretty inept in the redzone and thus, the Packers were able to cover their fourth straight game. If the public weren't already on them enough, this ATS run will get some stragglers to come over to the Green Bay side but they will be laying the most points in a road divisional game since 2009. The Vikings saw enough of Donovan McNabb as he was replaced by rookie Christian Ponder last week against Chicago. The thing is that McNabb had a solid game, despite getting sacked five times and his quarterback rating of 82.9 on the season is certainly better than a lot of other starters in the league but this was a move you knew was coming. Ponder played well in relief and with a week of practice with the first team this week, he should only get better. The Packers do not have much to prepare with. Ponder is the future of this team and his future will be bright. Even last week when he was in the pocket, he looked poised and seemed to have a great sense of where the rush was coming from. He was accurate with his throws and he did a solid job of scrambling when necessary. Green Bay has allowed 383.7 ypg on defense which is in the bottom half of the league and its 300.8 ypg allowed through the air is second to last. Granted teams have been forced to throw but allowing 8.0 ypa, 23rd in the NFL, is not very good either. The Vikings have not been good in these spots but this one is completely different. It is unlikely that teammates quit on McNabb but you can guarantee they are going to rally around Ponder. The Vikings fall into a great league-wide situation here. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg on offense and coming off a loss by 14 or more point going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg on offense. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (422) Minnesota Vikings |
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10-23-11 | Kansas City Chiefs +5 v. Oakland Raiders | 28-0 | Win | 100 | 72 h 31 m | Show | |
Kansas City went into its bye week on a solid two-game winning streak after dropping its first three games of the season prior to that. Even though the bye week may have hurt the winning momentum somewhat, it gave the Chiefs something more important and that was needed time to heal. They played their most complete game in their most recent contest against the Colts as they came back from a 17-point deficit to win. Quarterback Matt Cassel looked great and the running game was solid as ever.
The Raiders are on a two-game roll but the bad news came last week when quarterback Jason Campbell went down with a broken collarbone and could be lost for the entire season. They traded for Carson Palmer who has yet to take a snap this season and either he or Kyle Boller will be starting this week. Either way, it is a big downgrade as Campbell was running the offense very well with a balanced attack. The offense will lose that balance against a much improved Chiefs defense. The Chiefs have allowed a ton of points this season but they have allowed just 369.2 ypg and most of this damage was done in the first two games against the Bills and Lions. They have allowed only 20.3 ppg over their last three games and now they have the advantage of knowing what is coming. Kansas City will crown the box to stop the run and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel is one of the best when it comes to scheming to stop a relatively one-dimensional offense which the Raiders will have on Sunday. Defensively, Oakland is allowing 396.7 ypg which is fifth worst in the NFL. The loss of Nnamdi Asomugha has been felt as the Raiders no longer have that shutdown corner and their passing defense is also fifth worst in the league. Cassel got off to a slow start but Dwayne Bowe is still one of the more dangerous threats in the league and Steve Breaston is starting to come around. The Chiefs should be able to spread it out and actually open up the running game with their passing attack. The Raiders are the most heavily bet home team according to offshore reports and it is completely and overreaction to their start which actually isn't that great to begin with. There is no reason the Raiders should be favored by more than a field goal in a divisional game as they have no significant edge that warrants it. Oakland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games against teams allowing 24 or more ppg and 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a home chalk. Meanwhile the Chiefs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. 9* (415) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-23-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Arizona Cardinals +4.5 | 32-20 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 51 m | Show | |
The Cardinals have been a disappointment so far this season as they have dropped four straight games including a rather embarrassing loss to the previously winless Vikings in their last game. That came before the bye week and while teams have not fared well this season after a week off, this situation is definitely different. Arizona has dropped three straight games against the number and while Pittsburgh has received some of the biggest amount of bets for a road team this week, the line has gone the other way.
Pittsburgh is 4-2 on the season following back-to-back home wins. The Steelers were a potent 7-1 on the road last year but this season they are already 1-2 and the lone win came against winless Indianapolis by just three points in a game in which they were favored by 10.5 points. This can be considered the ultimate sandwich spot for Pittsburgh as it is coming off those two home games as mentioned and it has two more home games on deck, against New England and Baltimore no less. Pittsburgh had the best rushing defense in the NFL last season, allowing just 62.8 ypg on 3.0 ypc. Things are different this year as the Steelers are allowing 112.8 ypg on 4.6 ypc, the latter which is tied for ninth worse in the NFL. The Cardinals do not have a great rushing offense but it is above average and Beanie Wells is averaging 95.3 ypg, which is tied for third in the league, on 4.8 ypc. Productive running will allow Arizona to spread the ball around more as there are big play capabilities available. Making matters worse for Pittsburgh is the fact that defensive end Aaron Smith, nose tackle Casey Hampton and outside linebacker James Harrison are expected to miss Sunday's game. On the other side, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 18 times this season which could provide an opening for the Cardinals to try and go after him. Pittsburgh has also been turning the ball over much more than normal so winning the turnover battle will help the situation even more. Arizona falls into an extremely powerful and time-tested situation. Play against road favorites after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games going up against an opponent after a loss by 14 or more points. This situation is 94-52 ATS (64.4 percent) since 1983. Also, the Cardinals are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog between 3.5 and 10 points while the Steelers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against defense allowing 350 or more total ypg. 8* (418) Arizona Cardinals |
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10-23-11 | San Diego Chargers v. NY Jets +2.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 50 h 49 m | Show | |
It is pretty amazing how overhyped San Diego continues to be every year. The Chargers are 4-1 on the year and are leading the NFC West which is a surprise because usually the starts are much worse for San Diego but it has had some help. The Chargers have won three straight games and are coming off that controversial cover two weeks ago against the Broncos but they are also coming off a bye week which could seriously hurt. The Chargers four wins have come against teams that are a combined 4-17.
The Jets remain home following a Monday night win over the Jets that was not as good as the final score shows as New York was actually outgained and a 100-yard interception return accounted for a 14-point swing that the Dolphins could not recover from. Still, it was a big win for the Jets who came in riding a three-game losing streak but those three losses came against the resurgent Raiders, the Ravens and the Patriots and all were on the road. New York is 3-0 at home and 6-1 in its last seven home games. As mentioned, the Chargers remain an overhyped team and that is proven in this line as they come into this game as road favorites. They opened as underdogs but the line has moved the other way which is a surprise to me considering that the Chargers are playing an early game on the east coast where they have never had success, going 3-10 in their 13 games under head coach Norv Turner. The bye week provided time to heal injuries but so far this year because of the new CBA, teams coming off a bye have not fared well. The Chargers have played the second easiest schedule in the NFL while the Jets have played the fifth hardest so the fact that San Diego is outgaining opponents by 123 ypg and the Jets are getting outgained on average can be tossed out the window. It should be noted that the Jets are giving up more yards on defense than San Diego but are allowing fewer ypc on the ground and less ypa through the air. This is where the difference will be as the Jets will take advantage of an overrated San Diego defense. The Jets are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games coming off a Monday night game and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off a divisional win so there has been no letdown in the past and there certainly won't be here. Under Rex Ryan, the Jets are 3-0 ATS as home underdogs while the Chargers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite. Is the wrong team favored here? Absolutely and the Jets will continue their strong play at home and pull off the "upset". 8* (406) New York Jets |
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10-23-11 | Atlanta Falcons +3.5 v. Detroit Lions | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 50 h 47 m | Show | |
The Lions finally lost last week as their good fortunes finally ran out. They were coming off a solid win over the Bears in their previous game but before that it took two huge comebacks against the Vikings and Cowboys to pull off miraculous victories. The Detroit train has already come and gone but this will still be a very public team for a while. We are certainly seeing it this week as the Lions opened as 4.5-point favorites and despite garnering the majority of the bets, the line has actually come down.
The Falcons have been shaky this season, going 3-3 as they have been unable to get any sort of positive streak together. The good news is that they have not put together any negative streaks either so this is the perfect opportunity to get the former going. The Atlanta road woes are well documented but it will be more in its own environment this week with this game taking place indoors. The crowd noise will not be easy to handle but Atlanta is 22-12 ATS in dome games under head coach Mike Smith. This game features two of the top quarterbacks in the NFL in Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford. However, the difference in this contest will be the rushing game and that is where Atlanta has a significant advantage. Atlanta falls into the rushing dog scenario. The Falcons average more ypc on offense than Detroit (4.4 ypc to 3.9 ypc) allow fewer ypc on defense (3.8 ypc to 5.2 ypc) and are plus in their own ypc average (4.4 ypc to 3.8 ypc). These are some rather big variances. When the Falcons offense is more balanced, as it has been in the last few weeks, Atlanta can put up big point totals. Michael Turner rushed for 139 yards last week, and the Lions allowed San Francisco to run for a 203 yards. Overall the Lions rushing defense is 28th in the league. On the other side, Jahvid Best is likely out with a concussion and without a huge threat of a Lions' running game, expect the Falcons to use a lot of 3-3-5 sets against the Lions. This will help in stopping the Detroit passing game as well. The Falcons have their bye coming up so going into that 4-3 instead of 3-4 is significant and Atlanta has been solid prior to its week off as it is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games before their bye. Despite known road issues, the Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record while the Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. The reverse line move along with the rushing game edge signals an outright Falcons victory. 8* (413) Atlanta Falcons |
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10-23-11 | Chicago Bears v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 | Top | 24-18 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 45 m | Show |
This is Tampa Bay's second game in London since the NFL started scheduling games across the pond. The first one did not go so well as the Buccaneers were decimated by the Patriots 35-7 but coming in they were 0-6 while New England was 4-2 and in need of a positive end before the bye. Times have changed and Tampa Bay is now 4-2 and tied for first place with New Orleans in the NFC South. The Buccaneers are coming off a win over the Saints last week but don't expect a letdown here.
The Bears showed some signs of life last Sunday night on national television as they throttled the Vikings and that result is getting a lot of early action on Chicago. I'm still not sold on the Bears. They outgained Minnesota by just 91 total yards despite the big win and it was actually the first time that Chicago outgained its opponent the entire season. There is a good deal of momentum following the win against the Vikings but this situation taking place in London will take that away. When Tampa Bay played in London two years ago, it did not take into account the eight-hour travel schedule and the five-hour time difference. This year the Buccaneers chose to travel to London six days before the game and that is a huge edge. "It really helps being here (early), because it definitely takes a while to get acclimated to the time change," right tackle Jeremy Trueblood said. "I'm just now starting to feel like I'm on the right time scheduled again and it's already two days later." Tampa Bay did not get to practice outdoors before playing two years ago and it showed on the slippery field of Wembley Stadium. This time around, they took over Pennyhill Park resort as their headquarters and the rugby field will be a good place to practice heading into Sunday. The Bears will not have the same advantage as Chicago is not leaving until Thursday to make its trek. The Bears won't arrive in London until Friday, much like the Buccaneers did the last time they came. The Buccaneers are treating this like a regular road game as they will not check into a London hotel until Saturday so they are staying right on schedule. Tampa Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games following a win so that adds to the fact there will be no letdown in this situation. The Bears meanwhile have not responded well under head coach Lovie Smith after a big win as they are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games following a win by 21 points or more. 10* (402) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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10-17-11 | Miami Dolphins +7.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Miami heads into Monday night coming off its bye week and it probably came at a good time with the Dolphins sitting on a 0-4 record. They have dropped their last two games on the road and both of those could have gone either way with a tight loss in Cleveland followed by a loss in San Diego that was closer than the final score indicated. Miami has been a better road team than a home team the last couple years and under head coach Tony Sparano it is 14-4 ATS on the road after the first month of the season.
The Jets are reeling as well as they have dropped three straight games to move to 2-3 on the season. Many are arguing that this is a must win for New York and while that may be the case, the linesmakers have taken that into consideration. Like Miami, the Jets have played three straight road games so this return home is being called the cure to their ills however there are a lot more issues going on than is being led to believe. The Jets have dropped the last four meetings against Miami at home against the number. The biggest issue for the Jets has been internal problems as this week, Santonio Holmes, one of the offensive captains, blamed the offensive line for the Jets |
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10-16-11 | Minnesota Vikings +3 v. Chicago Bears | 10-39 | Loss | -118 | 55 h 58 m | Show | |
The Bears put up a dud on Monday night in Detroit to fall to 2-3 on the season including losses in three of their last four games. This is far from the same team that won the NFC North last year as they have been outgained in every game so far this year at an average of 101.6 ypg which is a horrible disparity. Giving up big plays has been a huge reason for the lack of success and that was evident last week as Chicago allowed the Lions to score on touchdown of 73 and 88 yards. The old Bears defense would not allow that.
The Vikings got into the win column last week with a home victory over Arizona and while they won the yardage battle by just 41 total yards, it was easily their most complete game of the season. It was the first time they did not blow a lead as they jumped ahead 28-0 and basically just put it on cruise control. Minnesota's first four losses all came by a touchdown or less and with the exception of Kansas City, all came against much better teams than what it will be facing tonight. Watching the Chicago game Monday night exposed two things. Quarterback Jay Cutler can make good things happen out of nothing but it is pretty obvious that the offense in place does not suit his game especially when he is running for his life on pretty much every play. The Bears have allowed 18 sacks and Minnesota has the ability to bring a ton of pressure as evidenced by its 16 sacks on the season, which is second best in the NFL. Expect a lot of seven and eight-man blitz packages. The Vikings rushing game was solid once again and Minnesota will use that advantage this week. Minnesota is averaging 160.0 ypg on 5.4 ypc while the Bears are allowing 135.6 ypg on 5.7 ypc so expect another huge game from Adrian Peterson. On the other side, Matt Forte is awesome as he has accounted for over 50 percent of the total offense. Minnesota is allowing only 76.4 ypg on 3.3 ypc so he will have his work cut out fore him here. The Vikings have the line of scrimmage edge on both sides with is huge. Chicago easily won both meetings last season so Minnesota will be out for some payback even though it is more difficult to attain on the road. The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games when they allow 150 or more rushing yards and 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards so that is the Vikings goal right there and it should be easily attainable. The Bears are 3-12 in their last 15 games after allowing 7.0 or more yppl in their last game. 8* (223) Minnesota Vikings |
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10-16-11 | St. Louis Rams +15.5 v. Green Bay Packers | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 16 m | Show | |
The Rams come off their bye with a 0-4 record and that is certainly not what many thought coming into the season following a very respectable 7-9 record last year after a dreadful 3-29 two-year run in 2008-2009. This was supposed to be a breakout year for St. Louis, its defense and quarterback Sam Bradford but it has been anything but. This team is not as bad as the record shows and coming off a bye is a big advantage which we will get into later and with this overinflated line, the Rams can hang around here.
Green Bay is the best team in the NFL right now and Aaron Rodgers is probably the best quarterback depending on who you are talking to. That said, the Packers are going to be asked to lay a lot of points and this number is the most they have been favored by since laying this same amount against Detroit at the beginning of last season. They won that game by just two points and it should be noted that Green Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last five games favored by more than two touchdowns since 1996, winning by just 7.6 ppg. The Rams defense caught a break with the injury of Packers tackle Chad Clifton. The other starting tackle is Bryan Bulaga who has missed two straight games and is questionable so the Rams can adjust their gameplan and try and get more pressure on Rodgers. This is certainly the most effective way to slow down the Green Bay offense. "They're scary good," Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo said. "But we've got players out here, too. We've got to go play the game. We've got to find a way to slow them down." The Rams offense got a much needed week off as Steven Jackson will be healthier after getting a week to rest the quadriceps injury that has slowed him this season. Quarterback Sam Bradford also should be fresher after taking 18 sacks in the first four games. The Packers defense was great last week after staking Atlanta a 14-0 lead but the defense has been vulnerable at times. The Packers allowing 22.2 ppg and 375.6 ypg which is just 6.0 ppg and 29.2 ypg less than what the Rams are allowing. As mentioned, teams coming off a bye in this situation have been very profitable, going 21-2 ATS if they are winless. This situation came up last season with the Bills easily covering in Baltimore as they lost by a field goal in overtime as 12-point underdogs. The Rams also fall into a contrarian rushing situation that says to play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points that are being outrushed by their opponents by one or more ypc on the season. This situation is 50-22 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1983. 8* (201) St. Louis Rams |
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10-16-11 | Buffalo Bills v. NY Giants -3 | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
The Giants were never in line to get a cover last week against Seattle but they did have a chance to win the game straight up until a tipped interception return for a touchdown sealed the deal for Seattle. That loss killed a lot of suicide pools and probably killed any sort of confidence for bettors wagering on the Giants going forward. That is a good thing for us as New York is now in a great spot and because of the recent result, we are catching a solid amount of value this week.
Buffalo has been one of the many surprise teams in the NFL this season as it is off to a 4-1 start, three of those wins coming against divisional winners from last season. Following a blown lead against Cincinnati two weeks ago, the Bills returned home and defeated the underachieving Eagles as underdogs. However, the Bills have been outgained in each of their last three games so despite two wins and a near-miss win, they are hardly playing and sort of dominating football right now. This is a typical letdown spot for Buffalo even though it does have a bye next week as the Bills have to be feeling good about their 4-1 record. They remain one of the highest scoring offenses in the NFL but their defense remains a big concern even though they have been able to do a good job in forcing turnovers. Running the ball and stopping the run are two of New York's head coach Tom Coughlin's greatest demands but so far, the Giants haven't been able to do either with much success. Giants defensive coordinator Perry Fewell has to figure out a way to slow down Bills running back Fred Jackson as he has been a solid back thus far. Fewell is familiar with the Bills after he was their defensive coordinator and briefly served as interim head coach before joining the Giants in 2010 so there is a good chance that he will be able to scheme a plan. As far as the Giants rushing offense, the Bills are allowing 138.4 ypg on 5.5 ypc so they should be able to move the ball on the ground with ease. This has been a Coughlin trait in the past as the Giants are a perfect 11-0 ATS under him after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games. Also the Giants are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss at home. We also want to play against road teams that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 46-18 ATS (71.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (214) New York Giants |
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10-16-11 | Carolina Panthers v. Atlanta Falcons -3.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 22 m | Show |
The Falcons have nipped us twice in the last two week, blowing big leads and covers both times. They are coming off a tough loss last week against the Packers at home as they were outgained by 175 total yards and outscored 25-0 after jumping out to a 14-0 lead. Atlanta could not get its revenge against Green Bay but it remains only two games out in the NFC South and with a game at resurgent Detroit next week, this has turned into a much bigger game than initially though when the season began.
Carolina fought hard once again last week against the Saints as it had the lead up until the final minute of the game when Drew Brees once again showed why he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. It was the Panthers fourth loss by a touchdown or less this season so this team has completely turned things around from a year ago when they were rarely competitive. The public has caught on though and it looks as though the ship has sailed as linesmakers are making the necessary adjustments. This is a great situational spot for the Falcons based on not only the must-win scenario but from an ATS standpoint as well. Atlanta has dropped three straight against the number while on the flip side, the Panthers have won four straight against the number and that sets up a public play on the road team if there ever was one. We are seeing it in the early offshore reports as Carolina is getting the majority of the action and while we are not seeing a reverse line move, we are seeing a possible middle for sharps to attack. Matt Ryan has gotten off to a slow start this season while rookie counterpart Cam Newton has been much more solid. Part of the problem for Ryan has been an inconsistent running game but that changes here. Atlanta is averaging 98.9 ypg on 4.3 ypc against defenses allowing 115 ypg on 4.4 ypc but this week they face a Panthers rushing defense that is allowing 135.2 ypg on 4.9 ypc against offenses averaging 108 ypg on 4.2 ypc. That shows the Falcons have a shot for a great game on the ground. With the Packers loss, the Falcons are 21-6 in their last 27 home games including both regular season and postseason. Atlanta has not lost to a team at home under .500 since December 24, 2006 when the 6-8 Panthers came in and won 10-3. That is a stretch of 36 home games without a loss to a sub-.500 team. Play against underdogs or pickems that are allowing 5.4 or more yppl, after gaining 450 or more ypg over their last two games. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (210) Atlanta Falcons |
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10-16-11 | Philadelphia Eagles -1 v. Washington Redskins | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 73 h 10 m | Show | |
The Eagles are clearly the biggest disappointment in the NFL this season, sitting at 1-4 and in last place in the NFC East. They are however the best one-win team in the league and while that is little satisfaction for fans and bettors who have been wagering on them, it provides a solid base going forward. The value of this line is on Washington because of the records but sometimes value needs to be put in the rearview mirror. This line gives us the scenario where an outright win likely means a cover as well.
Saying the Eagles are the best one-win team is not based on hype but based on what they have done on the field besides putting up wins. Philadelphia has outgained each of its five opponents and on the season it is outgaining opponents by an average of 93.8 ypg thanks to an offense that is ranked third in the NFL, averaging 445.6 ypg. The defense is not as bad as what is being said as it is a middle of the road unit and a team like Washington will not be able to take advantage. The problems for the Eagles has been turnovers. They have turned the ball over 14 times in their four losses with at least three in each game and that is not going to help pile up any wins. What makes that even more frustrating for Philadelphia is the fact that it has either had the lead or been within one score in the final five minutes of each of those games. Turnovers can certainly be contagious but keeping this rate up is nearly impossible and things are about to go the other way. The Eagles problem on defense is stopping the run as they are third to last in the NFL in yards allowed. Against Washington, we will see them stack the box and dare Rex Grossman to beat them, something that he will not be able to accomplish. He had a great opening game against the Giants but since then he has put up passer ratings of 74.9, 77.5, and 48.5. That last rating came against one of the worst defenses in the league. This will be his first ever start against Philadelphia. Defensively, the Redskins have been very solid but they have yet to face an offense with a dynamic such as this. Michael Vick has been a turnover machine, some his fault and some not, but he remains one of the toughest quarterbacks to defend when he is on his game. His receiving corps is solid and LeSean McCoy is having a great season with a 5.8 ypc average, best among running backs with at least 30 carries. The Eagles have their bye week coming up and heading into that with a win is imperative. 9* (205) Philadelphia Eagles |
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10-10-11 | Chicago Bears +6 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Detroit is one of just two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL with divisional foe Green Bay being the other. Obviously, the public is in love with the Lions right now and they are making that clear tonight as a huge majority of the wagering action is on the home team. Yet, we have seen this line go down in a lot of places showing a reverse line move signaling the sharp money has been on the Bears. With this being a divisional game, the line is simply too much.
A lot of credit goes out to the Lions for being undefeated but they could be 2-2 right now as they have lived on the edge the last two games, coming back from 20-0 and 27-3 deficits to win both times. They benefitted from two inception returns for touchdowns last week against the Cowboys as they were outgained by 131 total yards. Tampa Bay has been the only team on the schedule that Detroit has faced that has a winning record so the schedule has had a lot to do with the strong start as well. The Bears meanwhile are sitting at 2-2 and for them to remain in the divisional race, this is a must win game. While the Lions have faced a somewhat easy slate thus far, Chicago has played a much tougher schedule with Atlanta, which is underachieving so far, Green Bay, New Orleans and a very improved Carolina team. Defensively, the Bears have been a huge disappointment as they have allowed at least 27 points in each of their last three games but that actually puts them in a solid situation which is explained later. The one big edge the Bears have Monday is the running game. Matt Forte is coming off a huge game last week and on the season, Chicago is averaging 4.7 ypc. Detroit meanwhile is allowing 4.8 ypc so Forte and the Bears will once again be able to have success rushing the ball. That is imperative as Chicago wants to keep the Lions offense off the field and win the time of possession battle. On the other side, Chicago's defense has been gashed by the run but Detroit has one of the worst running games in the NFL. The Lions are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as favorites between 3.5 and 10 points while the Bears are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 350 or more total yards last time out. The aforementioned situation is to play on road underdogs or pickems that have allowed 24 or more ppg on the season and have allowed 25 or more points in three straight games. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent over the last five seasons including a 15-3 ATS mark the last three years. 10* (429) Chicago Bears |
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10-09-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Atlanta Falcons +6.5 | 25-14 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 3 m | Show | |
The reigning Super Bowl Champion Packers are the flavor of the month in the NFL as they have only gotten better since their huge run last season. They are coming off an absolute blowout of the Broncos last week to move to 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the number. Green Bay would be 4-0 ATS if not for a Carolina backdoor cover that took place in the final minute of the game. Many will say that we cannot step in front of a moving train like this but this is the perfect spot to do so.
The Falcons went to the west coast last week and picked up a much needed victory over Seattle even though they almost blew it. Those of us that had a ticket on Atlanta were not too happy when they built a 27-7 lead only to have it shrink and end up winning by just two points. Heading into this monster game at 2-2 instead of 1-3 is huge though and realistically the record could be better. Both of Atlanta's losses were reversals as the Falcons won the yardage battle in both of those games. This is just the second home game for the Falcons this year and it happens to be the second on the Sunday night football stage. They used a late comeback to defeat the Eagles in the first primetime game and that energy will be on display again this Sunday. It is even more so based on the fact the last loss at home came in the playoffs last season as these same Packers came into the Georgia Dome and embarrassed Atlanta by 27 points and outgaining the Falcons 442-194. It is definitely payback time. It will be up to the Falcons offense to move the ball and try and keep up with Green Bay. The Packers won't be stopped but the Falcons defense has the ability to slow them down. The Falcons offensive line will be key as going into last week's game in Seattle, quarterback Matt Ryan had been sacked a total of 10 times. Against the Seahawks, as a unit they didn |
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10-09-11 | Arizona Cardinals v. Minnesota Vikings -1.5 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 72 h 44 m | Show | |
Of the four winless teams in the NFL, the Vikings are the best winless team even though that may be considered an oxymoron. Minnesota has been involved in every game as it has had the lead in the second half in all four games. Home losses against Tampa Bay and Detroit were tough to swallow as the Vikings blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead against the Buccaneers and a 20-0 lead against the Lions only to lose in overtime. This game sets up very well for Minnesota to finally grab that first victory.
After escaping in their opening week against Carolina, the Cardinals have dropped three straight games, all of which have come after blowing leads in the second half, similar to what the Vikings have done. The difference here is that Arizona heads back out on the road where it has lost nine straight regular season games going back to last season. The loss last week against the Giants was especially hard to take as the Cardinals were up by 10 points with just over three minutes left before giving up two late touchdowns. The Cardinals have serious problems with their pass protection, with four out of their five offensive linemen grading negatively so far this season. Left tackle Levi Brown is one of the worst in the NFL and right tackle Brandon Keith is not much better. The Vikings can take advantage of these liabilities as they have the speed at defensive end to apply a ton of pressure around the edge. That is the best way to disrupt a potent passing attack and Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb has digressed each game this season. The Minnesota offense has had its share of problems this season as quarterback Donovan McNabb has been pretty average with a quarterback rating of 80.9. Unlike Kolb however, his ratings have increased in each of his games and he has a couple benefits Sunday. He is going up against a horrible defense and he has one of the best running backs in the game that has yet to have a breakout game. Adrian Peterson is averaging 4.6 ypc and goes up against a Cardinals defense that is allowing 4.5 ypc in their road games. As far as the passing game, Minnesota is on a good spot to open it up as the Cardinals are very weak in coverage. This could be the breakout game for McNabb everyone has been waiting for. It will come down to Peterson though as the Cardinals are 10-45 ATS in their last 55 games when they allow between 125 and 150 yards rushing which is right in his wheelhouse. The Vikings are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite and the Cardinals are 0-4 in their last four games as underdogs of three points or less. 9* (408) Minnesota Vikings |
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10-09-11 | New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers +7 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 72 h 39 m | Show | |
New Orleans heads out on the road for a second straight week after easily dispatching of the Jaguars last Sunday. This is definitely another breather alert for the Saints as they travel for a third straight week next week against Tampa Bay which is shaping up to be a big game. The public is hammering the Saints which comes as no surprise but with close to 80 percent of the action on New Orleans, the line has actually remained stable and even come down in place. This reverse line move signals a take.
Carolina is coming off another stinging defeat as it lost to the Bears in Chicago, its third loss this season by a touchdown or less. Putting that is perspective, of their 14 losses last season, only two came by a touchdown or less so the Panthers have shown massive improvements even though the wins have not been coming in. even though they lost by seven points to the Packers in their first big home test, they outgained Green Bay but Cam Newton had his worst game with three interceptions. Speaking of Newton, I thought his first game was a fluke but he has been very solid for the most part. He had a bad game against the Packers but he has improved every week since and the Carolina offense is once again making noise. Carolina amassed a franchise-record 543 yards last week against the Bears and there is no reason to think that the offense will be stopped this week. Prior to playing the inept Jaguars offense, the Saints allowed an average of 372.7 ypg and 29.3 ppg in their first three games. The Saints offense is once again lighting up opposing defenses as they are second in the NFL in total offense and fifth in scoring offense. However, looking into it further, they managed only 23 points last week against Jacksonville and the Carolina defense has been better than expected as well. Overall, New Orleans is outgaining opponents by 106 ypg while the Panthers are outgaining opponents by 93.2 ypg. That is a minimal difference but the Saints are favored by this much because of name and past success. As good as the Saints are and have been, they are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. This coincides with the fact they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Carolina falls into a great situation as well. Play against teams that are allowing 5.4 or more yppl on defense, after gaining 450 or more total ypg on offense over their last two games. This situation is 88-48 ATS (64.7 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being just -0.4 ppg. 8* (414) Carolina Panthers |
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10-09-11 | Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 29 m | Show |
We won with the Bengals last week as home underdogs and we will back them again this week as road underdogs. Cincinnati came into the season with arguably the lowest expectations of any team in the NFL but it has been a pleasant surprise through the first four weeks. The Bengals could conceivably be 4-0 right now as they lost to the Broncos by just two points on the road and blew a late lead against the 49ers two weeks ago. They have outgained all four opponents thus far.
Jacksonville opened the season with a win against Tennessee and with the Titans being 3-1 right now, that win is looking pretty good. However, Tennessee was entering the season with a new coach with new systems, a new quarterback and a star running back that missed all of preseason. The Jaguars have since lost their last three games as the offense is sputtering behind rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Jacksonville is averaging just 7.7 ppg in the three games he has started. The best defense in the NFL does not belong to the Steelers or Ravens but it belongs to the Bengals. Cincinnati is allowing a league-low 275.5 ypg and there is no reason to think that the defense will be taking a step back here. The Bengals have not faced the best of offenses but Sunday they face the NFL's second worst offense in total yards and the worst in scoring offense. They held the Bills to a season low 20 points and a season low 273 total yards. As long as the effort is there, the Jaguars offense will do nothing. As far as the offense goes, rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has been very solid. His first two games were the best and while he sputtered against the 49ers, San Francisco defense is seventh best in scoring. Jacksonville has been playing pretty solid defense up until last week against New Orleans where it allowed 503 total yards. We cannot compare the Saints offense to the Bengals offense but it showed that the early success of the Jaguars stop unit may have been just a mirage. The Bengals have been one of the worst favorites in the league but as underdogs, they have been solid as they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as pups of three points or fewer. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last six road games after gaining 450 or more yards in their previous game. Also, we play against home favorites after a double-digit loss going up against an opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. This situation is 76-36 ATS (67.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (415) Cincinnati Bengals |
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10-02-11 | NY Jets +4 v. Baltimore Ravens | 17-34 | Loss | -115 | 117 h 19 m | Show | |
This is another interesting line move as the early majority of the wagers are on the Ravens at over 71 percent yet the line has dropped from -4.5 to -3.5 and in some cases -3 -120. That shows early sharp money on the Jets to bring the number down to what it is but you can guarantee with what we saw last week that the public will be all over the Ravens based on their dominating performance and the loss by the Jets out west. Baltimore playing at home is a very public play to begin with.
Baltimore tore apart the Rams in St. Louis last Sunday as they jumped ahead 21-0 and it could have been worse if not for two missed 51-yard field goals. The offense was clicking with big plays and the defense was stuffing the Rams, forcing punts in their first five possessions. That is quite a difference from what Baltimore did on the road the previous week in Tennessee as it put up a dud which happened to following its romp at home against the Steelers. The question is can Baltimore put together consecutive gems. The possibility is there for the Ravens to do so but I believe the greater possibility is for the Jets to bounce back from their loss last week against the Raiders. Despite losing by 10 points, New York outgained Oakland by 56 total yards but a -2 in turnover differential was costly. The spot is good for New York to rebound with New England on deck because there in no longer the possibility of a lookahead because of last weeks loss. The Jets are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. This was an ugly game last season as Baltimore won 10-9 on the Monday night opening game of the season. The Ravens held Mark Sanchez to a putrid 74 yards passing and the Jets generated only 176 total yards. Part of that is the stifling Ravens defense but part of that was the Jets inept offense. Times have changed since then as the Ravens are a year older and ranked 13th in total defense while the Jets have a year more chemistry together and are currently in top ten in the NFL in scoring offense. Baltimore has its bye week next week and it provides motivation for some teams but not the Ravens as they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as favorites before their bye while the Jets are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog. They also fall into a very simple yet effective situation. Play on conference road underdogs or pickems that are coming off a road loss. This situation is 123-70 ATS (63.7 percent) since 1983. Look for the Jets to rebound nicely in primetime 8* (235) New York Jets |
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10-02-11 | NY Giants v. Arizona Cardinals +2.5 | 31-27 | Loss | -105 | 113 h 2 m | Show | |
After dropping their season opener at Washington, the Giants have reeled off two straight wins including a big divisional victory last week at Philadelphia as sizeable underdogs. While New York is capable of keeping it going, this is not a good situation as it hits the road for a second straight week and this time out west. With home games against Seattle and Buffalo on deck, there is no lookahead past Arizona but at the same time, there is no urgency in having to go all out to win this one. I'm not sold on the Giants quite yet.
I'm not sold on Arizona either but despite being 1-2, they could very well be 3-0. The Cardinals won their opener against Carolina but let a late lead slip in Washington and then hit a bad stoke of lack of execution against Seattle in the fourth quarter, missing a field goal and throwing an interception in Seahawks territory. Arizona is now back home in almost must-win spot as the Cardinals head back on the road next week followed by their bye. Going into the off week at 1-4 is not an option. One reason I think the Giants take a step back is because of quarterback Eli Manning. He is coming off a sensational game in Philadelphia where he won an offensive player of the week honor but he is not known for string together consecutive big games. He had a rating of over 145 last week and in the 27 other previous times he posted a rating over 100 (not counting Week 17 games), he followed it up with another rating of over 100 only nine times. The Cardinals defense is weak but Manning is prone to not stepping up. Arizona has some bad streaks in its favor but none of those come into play here as it has lost nine in a row away from home and have lost six in a row to division opponents. The Cardinals offense has had a lot of opportunities to bust out but last week it was especially bad on third down, going 3 for 14. Those statistics can be blamed, in part, on the absence of running back Beanie Wells who rushed for nearly 100 yards in each of his first two games. The good news is that he returns this week. The division loss to Seattle was a tough one for the Cardinals but rebounding in the past has not been an issue as Arizona is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games following a divisional loss by a touchdown or less. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog and they fall into a solid situation. Play against road teams that are coming off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 101-58 ATS (63.5 percent) since 1983. 8* (228) Arizona Cardinals |
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10-02-11 | Atlanta Falcons -4.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | 30-28 | Loss | -101 | 113 h 0 m | Show | |
We have two playoff teams from last season sitting here at 1-2, both of which are surprising. The Seahawks were the surprise team in the playoffs last season, winning against the Saints and the reason their 1-2 start is surprising is that they should be 0-3. they had no business winning last week against Arizona as they were outplayed and outgained but the win is actually good for us here as it provides the possible divisional win letdown but also gives us some added value that would not be there had they lost.
The Falcons 1-2 start is surprising because many figured they would come out strong and prove last year's regular season of going 13-3 was no fluke but the first round playoff loss was. This is as much of a must win this early in the season as you will find. Because Atlanta would go to 1-3 with a defeat here and then it heads home to face Green Bay next week which could easily mean 1-4 with the way the Packers are playing. It is no secret Atlanta struggles on the road but this is a good stop to get rolling. The offense is getting the big flack in Atlanta as there has been no balance and Matt Ryan has been pretty average. The Seahawks have started pretty good on the defensive side of things so things may not be easy going but I disagree. They have been torched pretty good the last couple weeks against Pittsburgh and Arizona after holding the inept 49ers in check so their overall numbers are skewed. Ryan has been sacked 13 times compared to 23 all of last year but Seattle has just five sacks this year. Another issue is penalties as the Falcons were the least penalized team with 58 last season but they have already been flagged 23 times this year. Defensively, Atlanta has been soft against the pass as it too has only five sacks as it can't get pressure and can't make a stop when needed. The good news in all of this lies up in Seattle as Tavaris Jackson has not looked good at all and even he can make a bad defense look good. This is where Atlanta come alive and finally gets its defense back on track. The Falcons have been one of the better bounceback teams in the league the last few years as it is 12-3 straight up and 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following a loss. When the offense stumbles, they have bounced back as well as they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring 14 points or fewer, averaging 34.3 ppg in those contests and winning those by close to 20 ppg. Seattle meanwhile is a dreadful 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a win at home. 8* (225) Atlanta Falcons |
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10-02-11 | Buffalo Bills v. Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 110 h 15 m | Show | |
Hats off to the Bills for snapping their 15-game losing streak against the Patriots and starting the season 3-0. This is the best start since they opened 4-0 in 2008 but they ended up 7-9 and missed the playoffs. It is a good time to be a Buffalo fan right now but that also makes it a great time to play against them. The Bills are coming off their biggest win in years and with that comes two things. That sets up a big letdown opportunity and because of the start, Buffalo is now overvalued at the betting window.
We had the Bengals in their home opener last weekend and they were covering throughout until late in the fourth quarter and eventually lost. It was a tough loss as the defense dominated the game, holding San Francisco to 226 total yards but the offense could not get enough going and turnovers did the Bengals in. It was a good spot for Cincinnati and this one is an even better spot as they catch a team coming off its biggest win in ages and hitting the road as a false favorite. While the Bengals defense has been dominant this season, currently ranked third in the NFL in total defense, the Bills defense has been just the opposite. Buffalo is near the bottom of the league in total defense as well as scoring defense. And for an offense that has struggled to put up points, this is the perfect cure. The Bills have given up 66 points and 710 yards passing in the last two games, and while the four interceptions of Tom Brady were great, that's not going to be the norm. Buffalo head coach Chan Gailey questioned whether his team had the mental toughness to keep coming from behind. After Sunday's win over New England, he's now questioning if they can handle their newfound success. They are saying the right things that it is just one game at a time and the Super Bowl cannot be thought of but this is new territory for everyone. It's a great story but the fairytale start come to a crashing halt on Sunday in Cincinnati as the Bengals will be a very hungry team. There are tow situations favoring Cincinnati, both of which have identical, time-tested records. Play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging between 18 and 23 and coming off a game where they scored 14 or fewer points going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. also, play against favorites coming off a win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is also 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (218) Cincinnati Bengals |
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10-02-11 | Washington Redskins v. St Louis Rams | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 7 m | Show |
This is an excellent opportunity for the Rams to grab their first win of the season. They are 0-3 and are coming off their worst effort of the year as they were blasted at home by Baltimore by 30 points while getting outgained 553-244. That humiliation does two things. It certainly adds some motivation to the table for St. Louis and it is stronger because the last game was at home and this game is at home. It also gives us line value as the public will be, and already is, staying far away from St. Louis.
Washington is not in a very good spot at all. The Redskins are coming off a tough and emotional loss on Monday night against the Cowboys in Dallas. Working on a short week already, Washington has to travel once again so based on this past week, the Rams have two extra days of preparation. The offense was not able to do much with the exception of one drive as the Redskins went 1-3 inside the redzone. This is a revenge game for Washington, having lost here last year, but the letdown negates that here. St. Louis falls into the adage of a team is not as good or as bad as it looked last week. The Rams are not a bad team but they had a tough first quarter against the Ravens and could not recover. They punted on their first five possessions while Baltimore got into scoring position on its first five possessions, using seven plays of 10 yards or more to jump ahead 21-0 and it could have been worse if not for two missed 51-yard field goals. A lot of this can be blamed on the short week following a Monday night loss against the Giants. While the defense was gashed against the Ravens, the offense could get nothing going. Injuries have had a lot to do with this as both Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson have not been close to 100 percent. The good news is that neither took a step back and both will be much better this week. Jackson could have a big game as Washington is allowing 4.8 ypc on the ground. There is also a possibility that wide receiver Danny Amendola could make a return. We are not banking on it but if it happens, it will be an added bonus. Despite the majority of the bets coming in on Washington, the line has gone the other way and this reverse line movement signals sharp money landing on the Rams. St. Louis needs a win as it does not want to go into its bye week with a 0-4 record. Play on teams that are averaging between 295 and 335 ypg on offense and have allowed 400 ypg or more over their last three games going up against teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg on defense. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (214) St. Louis Rams |
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09-25-11 | Kansas City Chiefs +15.5 v. San Diego Chargers | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 92 h 8 m | Show | |
We lost with the Chiefs last week and lost pretty bad for that matter but anyone who saw the game realized the game was closer than the final score indicated. The Kansas City offense, as bad as it looked the previous week against the Bills, was able to move the ball against the Lions but early in the game they were forced into a field goal, missed a field goal and were victims of 12 men in the huddle prior to trying to go for a fourth down conversion. They simply missed out on a lot of chances that would have kept them tight.
San Diego was also a major disappointment last Sunday as it had so many chances to not only cover against New England but to win outright and it failed in both and we kissed a ticket goodbye. This is becoming d |
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09-25-11 | Detroit Lions v. Minnesota Vikings +4 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 90 h 26 m | Show |
We played against Detroit last week as the Lions completely annihilated the Chiefs 48-3. After watching the shortcut version, Kansas City was obviously hurt with the loss of Jamaal Charles but it fought hard for a long time before the Lions pulled away. The Chiefs committed six turnovers, missed early opportunities to seize control of the game and were killed by penalties. This is taking nothing away from Detroit because it capitalized when it needed to but I still think this team in slightly overrated.
The Vikings started strong against Tampa Bay but fell apart late as they allowed the final 14 points of the game to turn a 20-10 lead into a 24-20 loss. It was unfortunate that it happened when it happened because Minnesota was playing a good game but the Buccaneers executed on two long drives to steal the game. Quarterback Donovan McNabb had a solid game while Adrian Peterson busted out for a big game as well. The records of the two teams, as well as preseason indicators, are driving this line. Part of those preseason indicators included Detroit being a playoff team this season based on its finish last year as well as a strong preseason. That may happen. However, this is one of those public trap games that is heightened with a reverse move on the line. The betting majority is all over the Lions yet the line has gone down which concludes sharp money came in on the Vikings and the linesmakers made the adjustment the other way to get more action on the square team. Divisional road chalk is as square as it gets. The Vikings defense, which is still the strength of this team, was the blame in the fourth quarter against the Buccaneers. It can also be blamed for the fourth quarter collapse the prior week against the Chargers although that scenario was different being on the road. They get defensive tackle Kevin Williams back from his two-game suspension and he will make a difference right away. The Lions offense is considered one of the best in the NFL but until we recognize it consistently, we will take a wait and see approach. The Lions have been bad for a long time and records are made to be broken but Detroit has not been favored in Minnesota since 1981 and has not won in Minnesota in 13 years. It is rare for a team that has struggled so long to become a public team is such a short amount of time. Also, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 36-13 ATS (73.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (408) Minnesota Vikings |
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09-25-11 | Jacksonville Jaguars +4 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -115 | 89 h 15 m | Show |
Almost as annoying as the Detroit Lions bandwagon filling up is the talk of Cam Newton and how great he is. Sure he has thrown for over 400 yards in his first two games but people fail to point to the fact that he has yet to win a game, has a quarterback rating of 89.1, which is middle of the pack thanks to four interceptions. They covered against the Packers last week but they blew a 13-0 lead as Newton made a lot of rookie mistakes. He will improve but don't get caught up in his 854 yards passing.
The Jaguars are coming off a humbling game where they were hammered in New York against the Jets. This came after a solid home win against Tennessee to start the season so it was definitely a disappointment as to how bad Jacksonville lost. I still think Jacksonville is the better team so the fact that Carolina is favored by more than a field goal, despite being at home, is quite an overreaction. Jacksonville has been mired in controversy since dumping quarterback David Garrard but it is in a good spot here. After posting a solid 91.5 quarterback rating in Week One against Tennessee, Jaguars quarterback Luke McCown put up a 1.8 rating last week against the Jets which is an almost unfathomable number. Rookie Blaine Gabbert replaced McCown to start the fourth, and completed 5 of 6 passes for 52 yards in relief. Gabbert is now the starter and while he did struggle in preseason, this is a good opportunity to get him started as he will be facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Don't expect Gabbert to be thrown into the fire and be asked to throw the ball 50 times. Although, the Panthers have the worst passing defense per attempt in the NFL, allowing 10.8 ypa so he might have success even if he did. Still, when put in passing situation, he will be able to move the ball but he will be asked to hand off to Maurice Jones-Drew and even though Carolina knows it is coming, he could have a big game. The Panthers are allowing 4.8 ypc, eighth worst, while Jones-Drew is averaging 4.4 ypc and 92.5 ypg. We have not seen a reverse move with this line yet but not seeing any move is intriguing enough seeing that over 87 percent of the betting public is on the home team. This is another case where sharp money hit the +3.5. Jacksonville falls into a very solid yet simple situation. Play against home teams that are coming off a cover where the team lost as an underdog going up against an opponent that is coming off a road loss. This situation is 27-4 ATS (87.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (409) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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09-25-11 | San Francisco 49ers v. Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 | Top | 13-8 | Loss | -120 | 89 h 9 m | Show |
One team that is still flying under the sleeper radar is Cincinnati. The Bengals were considered to be the worst team in football coming into the season and while that still may be the case, they are not shoeing it yet. They won their opener in Cleveland and refused to go away last week in Denver as they cut the deficit to two points but could not get another score. Now Cincinnati is back home for its home opener and the fans will be much happier to see a 1-1 team as opposed to a 0-2 team.
While the Bengals are happy about their 1-1 start, the 49ers are far from it as they blew a few sizable leads last week at home against the Cowboys but ended up losing in overtime. That was a tough loss to take and now San Francisco has to hit the road for the first time and playing an early game on the east coast to top it off. More on that later. The final score of that Dallas game shows the 49ers lost by just a field goal but they were outgained by 266 total yards so the game never should have been as close as it was. One reason that Cincinnati has looked better than advertised has been the play of rookie quarterback Andy Dalton. All of the hype and press has gone to Cam Newton and his two 400-yard passing games yet Dalton has a better passer rating, 105.7 to 89.1. He is not making silly rookie mistakes as he is not throwing into double coverages and he has been spot on with a 66.1 percent completion rate. His solid play has made it easier for rookie receiver A.J. Green who had a big game last week with 10 catches for 124 yards. The Bengals defense remains underrated. Injuries hurt the unit last season as did a poor offense that could not stay on the field for very long. After finishing fourth in the NFL in total defense in 2009, Cincinnati fell to the middle of the pack last year but it is on its way back up. The 49ers have been horrible on offense as turnovers by the opposition and its own specials teams have led to short fields and touchdowns which the offense gets credit for. Alex Smith is not a good quarterback and we will see it again here. The Bengals fall into a solid situation that goes against the 49ers. Play against road underdogs of fewer than three points after coming off a home loss as an underdog. This situation is 16-4 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. As mentioned, San Francisco is playing early. We play on home teams that are playing early Sunday against teams from the west coast if they did not travel the previous week. This situation is 46-23 ATS (66.7 percent). We have another great spot with the line moving in reverse for us. 10* (396) Cincinnati Bengals |
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09-18-11 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 58 h 21 m | Show |
The Falcons are coming off a rough season opener as they were dismantled in Chicago by 18 points. The boxscore does tell a different story however as Atlanta actually outgained the Bears by nine total yards but turnovers and other miscues did them in. Of their 386 total yards, 129 of those were empty yards which are yards lost by turnovers or missed fourth downs. Atlanta also had an 87-yard drive that was stopped at the seven-yard line as it had to settle for a field goal.
The Eagles won their opener in St. Louis and they were pretty fortunate that the Rams were decimated with injuries as Sam Bradford, Steven Jackson and Danny Amendola all went down. But because Philadelphia won and covered by a comfortable margin, it is being overvalued this week once again. The Eagles are considered one of the top teams in the NFL along with a handful of other teams but one of those are the Falcons. This is a prime example where misleading results from last week help in our value this week. Atlanta went 7-1 at home last year during the regular season and is now 20-4 in his last 24 regular season home games. The last time the Falcons were in the Georgia Dome however was in the Divisional round of the playoffs and they were torn apart by the Packers. That makes this game a big one as they need to get back that home field swagger and prove they are once again a Super Bowl contender. With two road games on deck, the term must win can be put into play even though it is only Week Two. The Falcons possess one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Matt Ryan but this game could come down to the running game. Michael Turner was a beast last week and was on pace for a huge game as he rushed for 100 yards on 10 carries (10.0 ypc) before Atlanta abandoned the running game. The Eagles meanwhile were shredded by Jackson and Cadillac Williams as the Rams put up 154 yards on the ground on 26 carries (5.9 ypc). I expect Atlanta to have a lot of success here which opens up the passing game. Defensively, the Falcons were not good against the Bears as Jay Cutler had a big game as did the Chicago running game. That could prove to be fatal against Michael Vick, who makes his Atlanta return, and the high-powered Eagles offense. However, there is a silver lining. The Falcons forced three field goals and one of the Bears touchdowns came on a big pass play while another came by way of a fumble return. That bend-don't-break style will need to be put in play again in what is a huge home field edge in primetime. 10* (226) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-18-11 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. New England Patriots | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -104 | 103 h 33 m | Show |
What we saw from Tom Brady Monday night was something special. He was a machine with the passing game, going 32-48 for 517 yards and four touchdowns along with one interception. He tore apart the Miami defense but things will only get tougher this week. The Patriots ended up with the cover against the Dolphins and because of that, we are getting line value this week as the public will once again line up behind Brady and company. As of Wednesday, 60 percent of the early action is on the home team.
The Chargers were able to sneak out a win over the Vikings as they outscored Minnesota 17-0 in the second half. It looked like another lame effort in the early season for San Diego but it put things together in the second half and that is a huge boost of confidence heading into this big game. While they only won by a touchdown, the Chargers outgained the Vikings by 220 total yards but were hurt by their empty yards as they had 184 total yards that resulted in no points because of two interceptions and a failed fourth down. The San Diego defense allowed only 197 total yards and 10 first downs. Minnesota was able to run the ball very effectively with 159 yards on 26 carries (6.1 ypc) as Adrian Peterson led the way. The Chargers completely shut down the passing game however as they allowed only 39 yards by Donovan McNabb and while you cannot compare McNabb and Brady as far as talent, it was still an impressive showing. Shutting down Brady will not happen but slowing him down can in fact happen. While the New England offense was going off, the defense looked like a mess. The Patriots yielded 390 yards passing and if Chad Henne can have that success, imagine what Philip Rivers is capable of. The Dolphins also gained a very respectable 98 yards rushing on 20 carries (4.9 ypc). Remember the Chargers led the NFL in total offense a year ago and they are basically the same unit this season. San Diego scored 30 or more points in half of their games last season as well. In last year's meeting, the Chargers were 2.5-point favorites meaning the Patriots would be roughly 3.5-point favorites at home based on the value change. That shows how much this line is inflated even though it is a new year. The Chargers, and Rivers, have been sensational as underdogs as they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points. The Patriots meanwhile are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games following a Monday night affair. 10* (221) San Diego Chargers |
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09-18-11 | Cleveland Browns v. Indianapolis Colts +3 | 27-19 | Loss | -125 | 51 h 46 m | Show | |
Indianapolis was certainly not a good call last week. It was a value play but the Colts clearly were not on the same page with each other coming out of the preseason. As stated last week, they will not be a playoff team without Peyton Manning but have the Colts dropped so far down to be a home underdog to a team that won five games last season and is expected to keep that pace this year? Excluding final regular season games where all starters were resting, Indianapolis has not been a home underdog since 2007.
The Browns lost at home to what many are saying will be the worst team in football and now they are favored on the road? Going back to last regular season, the Browns have lost five straight games and it clearly is another rebuilding year in Cleveland. Quarterback Colt McCoy, who struggled quite a bit last week against the Bengals, is now 2-7 as a starter. He completed just 19 of 40 passes for 213 yards and while he may be the long-term answer in Cleveland, he is not the answer right now. Remember last season, the Colts opened the year with a loss at Houston and came back home and dominated the Giants. That was billed as the "Manning Brothers Show" but it was the Indianapolis defense that stepped up and played excellent. After last week, that same defense will want to make amends, especially on its home turf. Against the Texans last Sunday, the defense yielded five pass plays that gained at least 20 yards and six run plays that gained at least 10 yards. Cleveland does not have to offense to duplicate that. The Browns offensive line is banged up, which means not enough time to throw and it makes it even tougher when trying to block the Colts |
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09-18-11 | Arizona Cardinals v. Washington Redskins -3 | 21-22 | Loss | -120 | 51 h 45 m | Show | |
The Redskins took care of the Giants last week as they overcame an early 14-7 deficit to score the final 21 points of the game. Defensively they did a great job in stuffing the running game of New York and they held Eli Manning to just over 56 percent completions while grabbing an interception and allowing no touchdowns. Washington was picked to finish in the NFC East basement but this is definitely a sleeper team to keep an eye on. The Redskins are in a great position here.
While the Redskins were impressive in Week One, Arizona was not. Sure the Cardinals defeated the Panthers but it came by just a touchdown and they were actually outgained by 83 total yards. They won the game thanks to a punt return for a touchdown midway through the fourth quarter and were able to hold on. While the offense looked solid, it came against a shoddy Panthers defense and things will be much more difficult this week. Especially playing an early east coast game. While the Cardinals offense looked pretty sharp, the defense was anything but. They made rookie quarterback Cam Newton look like an All-Pro in his NFL debut and while Rex Grossman is no superstar, he was pretty flawless last week. He threw for 305 yards while completing 62 percent of his passes to go along with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He is already showing that he is a great fit in the Mike Shanahan offense and he will succeed once again this week. Defensively, it was a continuation of a problem that played a big part in the Cardinals |
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09-18-11 | Kansas City Chiefs +9 v. Detroit Lions | 3-48 | Loss | -121 | 51 h 45 m | Show | |
Are the Chiefs really as bad as they looked last week? Many are saying yes but I believe they are much better than what was on display against the Bills. Kansas City fumbled the opening kickoff which provided the Bills a short field and a subsequent touchdown and it snowballed from there. Buffalo controlled the clock as it won the time of possession battle by almost a full quarter and because of that, the Chiefs got out of their gameplan. Playing from behind early also put them in that situation as well.
Detroit looked solid last week in winning on the road at Tampa Bay. They outgained the Buccaneers by 117 total yards but like the Bills, the Lions were able to do it with ball control. They won the time of possession by close to a full quarter as well and that completely took Tampa Bay out of their game. The Buccaneers rushed only 16 times compared to 35 for Detroit and while the ypc averages were nearly identical, a disparity in the actual carries can prove to be just as big of a difference. Kansas City simply can't afford to abandon the run early like it did last week, as the explosive running back Jamaal Charles is one of its most dangerous weapons. Charles rushed for only 56 yards but that was on just 10 carries (5.6 ypc) and as a team, the Chiefs rushed for 108 yards on 18 carries (6.0 ypc) which is very impressive. If they get the running game going, they should find a way to throw the ball downfield against the Lions secondary. Matt Cassel's 3.3 ypa last week against the Bills was horrible. The Chiefs allowed 163 yards rushing last week but a lot of those yards came late in garbage time when Buffalo was simply eating up the clock. They gave up 4.1 ypc which certainly is not stout but it is not horrible either. Kansas City needs to win the line of scrimmage to which will allow it to control the run and apply pressure on Matt Stafford. The loss of safety Eric Berry is a big one in the secondary but since 2010, Kansas City linebacker Tamba Hali is second in NFL with 15.5 sacks. Detroit is on a nine-game winning streak dating back to last season including the preseason so this team has a winning attitude. But favored by nine points? The Lions are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. Also, the Chiefs fall into a great time tested situation based on their poor performance last week. Play on teams after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game. This situation is 52-23 ATS (69.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 8* (199) Kansas City Chiefs |
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09-12-11 | New England Patriots v. Miami Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
The Dolphins were 7-9 last season but most surprising was that six of those wins came on the road as they went only 1-7 at home. That record will definitely steer some people off Miami in this game but a lot of those home losses could have been wins as five of the seven losses were by a possession or less with three coming by a field goal or less. This is a big number to be getting at home and even more so on Monday night football. Monday night home underdogs are 19-8 ATS in the last 27 games of opening week.
New England had the best record in football last season at 14-2 and closed the regular season with an eight-game winning streak before losing to the Jets in the Divisional round of the playoffs. The Patriots will be chomping at the bit to make up for that effort. The defense is especially in question as they are moving to a 4-3 base and that can definitely take a little bit of time to come together. They were able to control the Dolphins in both meetings last season but Miami could be much better offensively. Chad Henne has been under scrutiny and there was a lot of offseason talk about him getting replaced. However, this is his third season and he has weapons around him so this could be a breakout type of season. Miami has a new offensive coordinator this year as it hired Brian Daboll who at one time worked under Bill Belichick. Last season, while working as the Browns offensive coordinator, Daboll managed to have Colt McCoy run a successful game plan against the Patriots defense. The Patriots had the highest scoring offense in the league a year ago and everyone is banking on that offense to be powerful once again. New England did not look great in the preseason however as Tom Brady was just 28-of-50 for 320 yards with three touchdowns and an interception and in 17 drives from the first unit in the preseason, the Patriots punted seven times. Granted, the preseason can be deceptive at times but New England may still come out of the gate a little slow. The Dolphins lost by a combined 79-21 against New England last season so they will be out for some payback as they have not forgotten the double dose of blowouts. It will be up to the defense to make amends as those two games against the Patriots were the worst of the season. Miami has one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL as it finished sixth in the NFL last season in total defense. Miami allowed 17 or fewer points on nine difference occasions as well. 10* (480) Miami Dolphins |