Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-06-16 | Broncos +2 v. Raiders | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our Sunday Primetime Play. Oakland is 6-2 for the first time since 2001, going 5-0 on the road to begin a season for the first time since 1977. The Raiders absolutely dominated Tampa Bay last week despite needing overtime to win as they outgained the Buccaneers by 356 yards but of course that does not take into consideration the 200 penalty yards on 23 penalties. That skewed amount has closed the gap in yardage differential and this was the first game that Oakland has actually won the yardage battle. Denver has bounced back from a pair of losses with a pair of victories at home the last two weeks. The offense has looked much better following a small lull and should be productive again facing the No. 31 defense in the NFL. On the other side, the Broncos lead the league in pass defense, almost 7 yards better than the next team and have frustrated every quarterback they have faced. It is important to note that the Raiders wins have all been against teams with non-winning records. Denver should be playing with a chip on its shoulder as one of its two home losses from last season came against the Raiders. The Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and as good as the Raiders have been on the road, they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games. 10* (471) Denver Broncos |
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11-06-16 | Panthers v. Rams +3 | Top | 13-10 | Push | 0 | 55 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Carolina opened the season 1-1 but then went on to lose its next four games to fall into last place in the NFC South. The Panthers then hit their bye week which could not have come at a better time and they then went out and defeated Arizona last week. We played on Carolina in that game but that was mostly based on the fact the Cardinals were coming off an overtime game where five full quarters were played and then had to head east for an early start. Now it is the Panthers that have to deal with a lengthy travel assignment against a team coming off a bye week. The Rams played in London two weeks ago which resulted in a loss against the Giants, their third straight defeat overall. Los Angeles surprisingly outgained all three of those opponents however so it has been competitive. Turnovers have been the issue as to why the Rams have avoided the win column during this stretch. If the Rams offensive line can give quarterback Case Keenum enough protection, then he should have no problem finding an open receiver against the 30th ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Rams are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while the Panthers have failed to cover their last seven road games. 10* (466) Los Angeles Rams |
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11-06-16 | Lions v. Vikings -6 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -107 | 52 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFC North Game of the Year. The Vikings started the season 5-0 but the dreaded momentum killing bye week came and they have gone on to lose their last two games against the Eagles and Bears. Those games were on the road however and a return home will help them tremendously. In a surprising move this week, offensive coordinator Norv Turner suddenly resigned and while some may think that will be big distraction, it will only help as the offense became stagnant the last two games, scoring just 10 points in each game. The Lions were riding a three-game winning streak going into last week but lost in Houston by a touchdown. Detroit is now 1-3 on the road and it heads to Minnesota at the wrong time. While the passing offense has been spot on, the Lions will be facing their biggest test as the Vikings have held six of seven opponents below their passer rating average and in five of those games, they have held quarterbacks at least 15 points below their passer rating average. The Vikings are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (454) Minnesota Vikings |
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11-06-16 | Cowboys v. Browns +7 | Top | 35-10 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our Sunday Enforcer. The Browns are the lone winless team in the NFL at 0-8 but they have played a lot better than that record suggests. They have played five road games thus far while one of the home games came against the Patriots which was the first game back for Tom Brady. In the other two home games, Cleveland had a chance to win both but fell just short, losing those by a combined eight points. The Browns have outgained half of their opponents so they have been a very competitive 0-8 squad. Dallas lost its season opener against the Giants but has reeled off six straight wins after its overtime victory against Philadelphia last week. The Cowboys have covered all six of those games so it comes as no surprise that the public is all over them again as they are the third biggest consensus pick of the week. Coming off that victory over the Eagles and with a game at Pittsburgh on deck, this could signal a very flat spot for the Cowboys this week. A big boost to the Cleveland offense should be the return of wide receiver Corey Coleman who had 173 yards and two touchdowns in two games but broke his hand in practice the following week and has not played since. 10* (458) Cleveland Browns |
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10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears +5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The Bears fell to 1-6 following their loss last Thursday night against the Packers as the offense managed just 189 total yards. Part of the problem was quarterback Brian Hoyer having to leave the game with the broken arm and Matt Barkley getting thrown into action in his first game since 2014. Chicago now gets Jay Cutler back after missing five games with a thumb injury so it is a big upgrade on offense. Chicago has actually outgained four of seven opponents this season so it has had some tough losses along the way. Minnesota is a big public favorite here despite a loss in Philadelphia last week. The Vikings have struggled on the road even though they are 2-1 as they were outgained by the Titans and Panthers in both of their road victories. Bears running back Jeremy Langford will return from a sprained ankle that has kept him out for the past four games and that is a big boost for Chicago as its running game has been pretty non-existent since he went down. While the Bears have struggled on offense, Minnesota has not fared much better as it is No. 31 in total offense with 299.2 ypg, and Chicago is No. 12 in total defense with 350.4 ypg game. Going back, Chicago is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game while going 17-6 ATS in its last 23 home games after three or more consecutive losses against the spread. The Vikings meanwhile are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams averaging 17 or fewer ppg. 10* (274) Chicago Bears |
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10-30-16 | Packers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 32-33 | Win | 102 | 49 h 42 m | Show |
Green Bay snapped out of its offensive funk as it put up 406 total yards in its win against the Bears last Thursday. Now the Packers hit the road for the first time since September 18 as they played four straight home games with a bye put in there as well. That should not be an issue here because of the extra layoff from Thursday to the following Sunday. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who had struggled through most of the first five games, turned to a quick-hitting passing game to complete a team-record 39 passes. The Falcons are coming off a pair of losses, one in Seattle and the other last week at home against the Chargers. After a 4-1 start, it is beginning to look a lot like last season when the Falcons started 5-0 and closed by winning just three of their last 11 games. They fall into a tough situation where we play against home teams after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Green Bay is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games coming off a divisional game while the Falcons are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites. 10* (253) Green Bay Packers |
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10-30-16 | Chargers +4.5 v. Broncos | Top | 19-27 | Loss | -106 | 48 h 20 m | Show |
This is a quick turnaround for the Broncos to get some revenge von San Diego after they suffered their second loss in San Diego on October 13. We are not playing that angle however as Denver is not playing great right now as even a 27-9 win was not as good as the score shows as they outgained the Texans by just 76 total yards. While the defense is one of the best in the league, the offense is a mess as they are ranked No. 27 in total offense and No. 28 in passing offense. The running game is the strength but that took a huge hit with C.J. Anderson likely out for the season. The Chargers won in overtime at Atlanta last week to improve to 3-4 but that is a very skewed record. If bad breaks had gone their way, they could have at least two more wins as three of those losses have come by eight points combined while the other loss came in overtime opening week at Kansas City. Denver had won five straight meetings prior to the last one and these are more equal than people think making this spread way too high. The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, San Diego is 9-1 in its last 10 road games while under head coach Mike McCoy, the Chargers are a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog between 3.7 and 7 points. 10* (267) San Diego Chargers |
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10-30-16 | Lions v. Texans -1 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our October Game of the Month. After a 1-3 start to the season, Detroit has reeled off three straight wins to remain in the hunt in the NFC North. The issue is twofold however as all three of those victories took place at home and in all three instances, the Lions were outgained by their opponents. The total combined victory margin was just seven points so while winning close games is huge, Detroit could be sitting at 1-6. We played against Houston Monday as it lost to Denver by 18 points to fall to 4-3 on the season. The next day, all of the talk was how bad of a deal the Texans made with Brock Osweiler and while he has been struggling, the schedule has been brutal. Three games against Denver, Minnesota and New England is bad enough but when they are all on the road, it makes it nearly impossible. Houston is 4-0 at home and has won eight of its last nine regular season home games, the lone defeat coming last year against the Patriots. We have a great situation on our side as well as we play against road teams that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 57-26 ATS (68.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Detroit is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games off an upset win as a home underdog while Houston is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a favorite. 10* (256) Houston Texans |
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10-30-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers -3 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 48 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. This is a great setup for Carolina whose season is pretty much on the line. The Panthers are 1-5 and need to start some sort of run to make it back into the playoffs. They are coming off their bye week which could not have come at a better time with the way they have been playing as well as to rest some injuries issues. They catch Arizona coming off a tie at home last Sunday night against Seattle and now laying an early game on the east coast, which was originally scheduled for Sunday night is not ideal for the Cardinals. Arizona is struggling this season as well despite a favorable schedule with five of its first seven games taking place at home. The fact they are coming off a tie is bad news as they had to go an extra 15 minutes and that is a big negative. As a matter of fact, since 1989 there have been seven teams coming off a tie and playing their next game on the road and all of those teams lost. The defeats were by an average of 19.3 ppg and all resulted in easy covers as well. Additionally, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983. Also, Carolina is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games against teams averaging 375 or more ypg while Arizona is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. 10* (270) Carolina Panthers |
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10-30-16 | Seahawks v. Saints +2.5 | Top | 20-25 | Win | 100 | 45 h 17 m | Show |
The Saints cashed for us last week in Kansas City and it was a game they could have won as they lost the turnover battle 2-0 including an interception that was returned for a touchdown. New Orleans outgained the Chiefs by 137 total yards but ultimately fell to 2-4 on the season. The Saints have played better than that however as two other losses came by a combined four points while the fourth loss they also won the yardage battle. Seattle is coming off a 6-6 tie in Arizona where they were outgained by 186 total yards. The fact they are coming off a tie is bad news as they had to go an extra 15 minutes and that is a big negative. As a matter of fact, since 1989 there have been seven teams coming off a tie and playing their next game on the road and all of those teams lost. The defeats were by an average of 19.3 ppg and all resulted in easy covers as well. The Seahawks were cruising along with three straight wins but they have only two comfortable wins on the season and those came against the 1-6 49ers and 2-5 Jets. The offense has been inconsistent and while the Saints defense is nothing special, the spot is just a horrible one. New Orleans is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog while going 18-7 in 25 games under Sean Payton following a loss of six points or less. 10* (258) New Orleans Saints |
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10-24-16 | Texans v. Broncos -8 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Denver opened the season with a 4-0 record but has since dropped its last two games, both by just one possession but that sets the Broncos up perfectly for this Monday night game. Their last loss came last Thursday so they have had extra rest as they head back home with a little revenge placed on top of it. The Texans defeated the Colts in their last game and they could very well still be celebrating that one after coming back from a 14-point deficit late in the fourth quarter and eventually winning in overtime. Houston improved to 4-0 at home but it has lost both of its road games, neither of which were even close as they dropped those games by a combined score of 58-13. Obviously the return of Brock Osweiler to Denver is the big story here and that gives the Broncos a huge advantage. The Denver defense should understand the weaknesses of Brock Osweiler better than anyone and it should be exposed Monday with the biggest being that he holds the ball way too long. The pass rush for the Broncos is sensational and this only adds to their success tonight. Additionally, their talented secondary, led by cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr., leads the league by allowing an average of just 182.3 passing ypg. On the other side, the Texans are already without J.J. Watt and their secondary took a big hit with the loss of outstanding corner Kevin Johnson while safety Quintin Demps will miss a second straight game. Denver falls into a solid situation as we play on favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are coming off a road loss. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (478) Denver Broncos |
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10-23-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 54 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Chargers finally had a game go their way as they opened up a 21-3 lead and held on for the much needed victory over the Broncos. It was just their second win on the season but are arguably the best 2-4 team in the NFL as they are getting outgained by just 8.0 ypg and have been on the other side of good luck the majority of the season. San Diego hits the road where it is winless but could be 3-0 instead of 0-3 but the line is taking that actual record into consideration and it is overinflated. It is also too high based on the start the Falcons have had as they are 4-2 but are coming off a loss last week in Seattle. Atlanta has covered five straight games which is a red flag and another sure sign of value going the other way. Atlanta has been underdogs in five straight games and now suddenly it goes to nearly a touchdown favorite and that is simply too big of a jump. The Chargers offense has been solid this season and has a good matchup against an awful Falcons defense. While winning on the road has not been happening for San Diego, they remain competitive as they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine roadies. Meanwhile the Falcons are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing road record. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 95-125 rushing ypg going up against teams allowing between 70-95 rushing ypg, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 43-18 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (469) San Diego Chargers |
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10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 51 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Dolphins picked up a much needed win last week over Pittsburgh which snapped a two-game slide and put them in the positive for the first time yardage differential. Sure the Ben Roethlisberger injury helped as it put the Steelers offense in check but he does not play defense and the Miami offense exploded for 474 yards. This offense has the potential to do that often and last week was no anomaly as it was the first time all season long that the starting offensive line was able to play together. The good news coming out of last week is that there is not a single offensive lineman on the injury report this week. The Bills have won four straight games but it is not an overly impressive run. They defeated the Cardinals who are simply not right and were on the east coast for an early game, the Patriots who were down to the third string quarteback, the Rams who have been outgained in all but two games and the 49ers who are just plain terrible. Because of the streak, Buffalo is favored on the road and should not be. The Bills go some bad news as LeSean McCoy will be out for this game because of a hamstring injury. Additionally, the Bills are part of a contrarian rushing situation that even stings more with McCoy not playing. We play against road favorites that are outrushing their opponents by 40 or more ypg on the season, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 100-57 ATS (63.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (462) Miami Dolphins |
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10-23-16 | Vikings v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show |
The Minnesota bandwagon is pretty full right now and rightfully so. The Vikings are 5-0 to start the season, have covered all five of those games and going back to the start of last season, they are 19-3 ATS which is pretty incredible. We are stepping in front of this bandwagon however as the Minnesota schedule, which looked tough at the start of the season, has not been as all five of the opponents have been underachieving with the exception of Tennessee. While they are winning and covering, the Vikings are not dominating as they are outgaining opponents by just 15 ypg. The Eagles have dropped two straight games following a 3-0 start but both of those losses came on the road. They were completely outplayed last week against the Redskins but should have won in Detroit the previous week as they outgained the Lions by 102 total yards but lost by a point. In its two home games, Philadelphia dominated in both winning by a combined score of 63-13 and outgaining the Browns and Steelers by a combined 290 yards. We have two situations in our favor as well. First, we play on underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against favorites that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (454) Philadelphia Eagles |
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10-23-16 | Saints +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 19 m | Show |
We won with the Chiefs last week over the Raiders and that was mostly a play against Oakland which has now been outgained in all six of its games this season. Kansas City returns home where it is 2-0 but one win needed a miracle comeback against San Diego and the other win came against the hapless Jets. The Chiefs have been outgained in three of their five games this season and while last week was the most dominant performance as far as stats go, the weather played a big part in that as the conditions were totally against the Raiders gameplan. New Orleans has won two straight games following a 0-3 start but two of those three losses could have and should have been victories. The Saints lost in the finals seconds against Oakland and then lost on a last second field goal against the Giants. The defense remains the enigma but we are far from sold on the Kansas City offense to take full advantage. Drew Brees is having a great season thus far as he is tied for third in the NFL with 14 touchdowns and is one of just six quarterbacks with a QB rating of more than 100. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a losing team. This situation is 77-39 ATS (66.4 percent) since 1983. Additionally, New Orleans is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog while the Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. 10* (455) New Orleans Saints |
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10-23-16 | Redskins v. Lions -1 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 18 m | Show |
The Redskins are tied with the Bills for the second longest current winning streak in the league with four consecutive victories. It is a deceiving run however. While Washington dominated Philadelphia last week, it was outgained by both the Giants and Browns while it outgained the Ravens by just four total yards. The Redskins are 2-0 on the road but benefitted from a punt return for a touchdown in Baltimore while needing a last minute field goal in New York. Detroit comes in at 3-3 after having won its last two games. While it can be argued they could have lost the last two games, it can also be argued that it could have won two games it lost against the Titans and Bears. Also, the Lions nearly pulled off a miraculous comeback against the Packers. The offense has not missed a beat with the absence of Calvin Johnson as Matthew Stafford is third in the NFL with a 106.0 QB rating while throwing 14 touchdowns and just four interceptions. This is a big game to keep pace in the NFC North as this is the third straight home game and they hit the road to face Houston and Minnesota over the next two weeks. Defensively, the Lions need to force more turnovers as their four takeaways are third fewest in the league. Washington falls into a negative situation as we play against teams that are coming off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 75-30 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (458) Detroit Lions |
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10-17-16 | Jets +7.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is a big game for both sides and could define the rest of the season. A fifth loss for the Jets would be devastating and likely end any sort of playoff hopes as there are already nine teams in the AFC with .500 or better records. The NFC has 10 teams are .500 or better so the Cardinals cannot afford to slip up much either but based on this spread, they are a much more dominant team than the Jets and that is simply not the case. Both quarterbacks, Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick have played below average but the difference in this game could come down to the running game in the trenches and that is where New York has the advantage. The Cardinals will be playing without both of their starting guards because of ankle injuries as right guard Evan Mathis is on IR and Mike Iupati is expected to miss at least one to two more weeks. Both John Wetzel and Earl Watford filled in adequately last week but the competition gets a lot tougher this week against the Jets ferocious defensive line. On the other side, the Cardinals allow 4.6 ypc and 118.2 ypg on the ground, so the opportunity is there if the Jets offensive line is able to control the trenches. The Jets have two great situations on their side. First, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are being outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 91-52 ATS (63.6 percent) since 1983. Secondly, we play on road teams after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in October games. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Arizona 1-13 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points and 0-6 ATS in its last six Monday games. 10* (277) New York Jets |
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10-16-16 | Falcons v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. After losing their season opener, the Falcons have won four straight games including three on the road. They have looked dominant the last two weeks against Carolina and Denver but at this point in the season, both of those teams look like they have taken a step back so those wins are not quite as good as they would have looked last season. Speaking of last season, remember the Falcons started the season 5-0 and went on to lose eight of their last 11 games and we can expect another digression this season. The Seahawks are off to a 3-1 start and are coming off their bye week which is a good thing for them to rest some injuries, especially for quarterback Russell Wilson. Seattle has won the yardage battle in all four of its games including both home games by 138 yards and 164 yards. Granted, those were against a couple of losing teams but in this case we fell that the Falcons are an overrated bunch right now. The Falcons have a negative situation as we play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 62-32 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Seattle is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games against teams that are allowing 375 or more ypg. The Falcons are allowing 388.8 ypg which is No. 26 in the league. 10* (272) Seattle Seahawks |
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10-16-16 | Chiefs -1 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 55 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Chiefs have had two weeks to stew over its blowout loss at Pittsburgh prior to their bye week so we will see a full out effort this Sunday. Kansas City is in a must win spot here as a loss puts it three games behind the Raiders in the AFC West. The Raiders are one of the biggest surprises in the NFL as they are off to a 4-1 start to take the early division lead. However, they are the most overrated divisional leader and that is proven by the fact that they have been outgained in all five games this season. Give them credit for winning close games but that is eventually going to switch. Kansas City has two very favorable situations on its side. First, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 in conference games, off a non-cover where the team won as a favorite. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on road teams in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg scoring differential., after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring 14 points or less while Oakland is 3-16 ATS in its last 19 home games after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (269) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-16-16 | Steelers v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 52 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Dolphins are riding a two-game losing streak after arguably their worst game of the season last week at home against Tennessee as they lost 30-17 and were outgained by 198 total yards. Now they go from a 2.5-point favorite to over a touchdown underdog at home and that is a huge line shift. Teams are typically not as bad as their last game and not as good as they were in their last game and that is what the public is seeing with Pittsburgh. The Steelers are coming off a pair of blowout wins at home over the Chiefs and Jets and those results are inflating this line as well. Pittsburgh was destroyed in its last road game at Philadelphia and in its other road game at Washington, it won by 22 points but outgained the Redskins by just 53 total yards. Here, we play against favorites that are averaging 27 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 32-7 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Pittsburgh is 5-15 ATS in its 20 road games after covering the spread in four out of its last five games and under head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 9-18 ATS in its last 27 road games after allowing 14 points or less last game. The Dolphins meanwhile are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a non-losing road record. 10* (258) Miami Dolphins |
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10-16-16 | Bengals +9 v. Patriots | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We made a bad call going against the Patriots last week as the return of Tom Brady went a lot better than what was expected. Because of that, New England is laying a huge number against a team that may not be as good as the Patriots but it is not that much worse than what this number is telling us. Granted, the Patriots are a different team with Brady behind center however they did go 3-1 without him and on the season, they are outgaining opponents by 32.2 ypg. The Bengals are coming off a loss at Dallas last week to fall to 2-3 on the season but despite that losing record, they are outgaining opponents by 27.8 ypg which shows how close these teams are to each other. The Patriots have a game at Pittsburgh next week followed by a road revenge at Buffalo the following week so the chance of a lookahead is always there. The Bengals has a great situation on their side as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 that are coming off a road loss. This situation is 104-59 ATS (63.8 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while going 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up loss. 10* (251) Cincinnati Bengals |
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10-13-16 | Broncos -3 v. Chargers | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -113 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
Denver is coming off its first loss of the season against Atlanta last week as the offense could get nothing going. The Broncos rushed for just 84 yards on 24 carries (3.5 ypc) while Paxton Lynch was pretty unsuccessful in his first start, throwing for 223 yards but was sacked six times. A lot of that had to do with the banged up offensive line but the good news is that right tackle Donald Stephenson, who missed the game with a calf injury, is slated to return here. Starting quarterback Trevor Siemian is also expected to return which is definitely a big deal as well. The Chargers have to be the unluckiest team in the NFL as they are off to a 1-4 start but have lost those four games by a combined 14 points with the biggest loss coming by six points in overtime in their season opener at Kansas City. While unlucky on the scoreboard, San Diego has also been unlucky with the injuries as their injury report this week is 17 players deep including 10 players on IR. The big news here is that Denver head coach Gary Kubiak is out for this game after spending some time in the hospital. Special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis is serving as the interim head coach and while that may seem like a disadvantage, it really is not one. Defensive coordinator stated that the Broncos plan to rally around Kubiak and win this game for him. San Diego is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games against teams completing 61 percent or more of their passes (Siemian is at 67.3 percent) while going 0-6 ATS in its last six divisional home games. Conversely, Denver is 6-0 ATS in its last six divisional road games. Additionally, Denver has won 15 consecutive divisional road games, the longest streak in NFL history. 10* (103) Denver Broncos |
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10-09-16 | Giants +7 v. Packers | Top | 16-23 | Push | 0 | 55 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Primetime Play. After opening the season with two straight wins, the Giants have dropped their last two games. They lost a winnable game against the Redskins and then lost to a very good Minnesota team last week. New York is outgaining opponents by 36 ypg so it is playing above average despite its average record. The Giants have failed to cover the last three games which is giving us value in this number plus it is inflated because of the team they are playing. Green Bay is a very public team but is has turned into a very average team. The Packers two covers are by just a point and a half combined and they have been outgained in all three games and by an average of 56.3 ypg, fifth worst in the NFL. The short week should not affect the Giants as they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Packers have failed to cover their last three games when favored by a touchdown or more and they lost two of those outright. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points n a game involving two teams with a point differential between +3 and -3, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 62-26 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (473) New York Giants |
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10-09-16 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS for our NFL Enforcer. While the start of the Raiders is great at 3-1, this is a fraudulent 3-1 team. They have been outgained in all four games and by an average of 67.5 ypg which is the third worst average in the entire league. Oakland is coming off a pair of east coast wins and that is tough for a team to regroup from because of all the travel. San Diego is off to just the exact opposite start as it is 1-3 but their three losses have been games they could have one. They lost to the Chiefs in overtime after blowing a big lead, they lost to the Colts on a 63-yard touchdown pass with 1:17 remaining and they lost to the Saints last week on a touchdown with 1:57 left. San Diego is getting outgained by just 10.7 ypg and are in good shape to bounce back in what is considered a must win game. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 24 or more ppg, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 108-63 ATS (63.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Oakland is 2-12 in its last 14 home games against teams allowing 27 or more ppg while going 3-15 in its last 18 home games after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (469) San Diego Chargers |
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10-09-16 | Eagles -3 v. Lions | Top | 23-24 | Loss | -118 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Game of the Week. There are a lot of stats out there that Philadelphia is in a bad spot because it won as a home underdog in its last game but what is not being taken into account is the fact that the Eagles are coming off their bye week which changes everything. Teams coming off a bye week can throw that last game out the window as any letdown factor is gone and history shows the Eagles are in a near perfect spot as undefeated favorites coming off their bye week are 26-5 ATS since 2000 including a 17-1 ATS record when their opponents is coming off a loss. The Lions are coming off a bad loss to the Bears and while it was just a three-point loss, they were outgained by 145 total yards. They have also been outrushed in their last three games and that is not a good stat against the Eagles which have won the yardage battle in all three of their games. Additionally, we play against home teams that are coming off two consecutive road losses, with a losing record. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (461) Philadelphia Eagles |
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10-09-16 | Patriots v. Browns +10.5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Browns let us down last week as late turnovers, including a very controversial fumble, did them in. They return home for just their second home game of the season and despite being 0-4, they have been outgained by just 27 yards combined all season. The Patriots are one of the biggest public bets this week as they are welcoming back Tom Brady while coming off a shutout loss at home so the consensus feels they will bounce back big. The problem is they are extremely overvalued here as this line is way too high and given the fact Brady was unable to practice during his entire suspension, who knows how he is going to play. Cleveland falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 125-67 ATS (65.1 percent) since 1983. On top of that, New England is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games over the last 3 seasons. 10* (456) Cleveland Browns |
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10-03-16 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Everyone will be taking a look at the Minnesota record and figure it should be a bigger favorite here following impressive wins over Green Bay and Carolina. Those are a pair of flawed teams however so those wins cannot be taken overly serious while the other win against Tennessee meant little as well. The Vikings have actually been outgained by their three opponents by a combined 81 total yards. The Giants suffered their first loss of the season against Washington as they blew leads of 14-3 and 21-9 no thanks to two big plays from the Washington offense. The Giants did win the yardage battle and on the season they have outgained their opponents by an average 57 ypg. On paper and due to the meeting last year between the two teams, many feel this should be an easy win for the Vikings. However, the Giants defense is a much improved unit when compared to the group they fielded in the 49-17 Week 16 loss to the Vikings last year. Additionally, the offense has more weapons as well with a now healthy Victor Cruz and rookie sensation Sterling Shepard. While running backs Rashad Jennings and Shane Vereen are out, Orleans Darkwa carried the ball 10 times for 53 yards and one touchdown last week against Washington. Two great situations fall on the Giants side as well. First, we play against home teams that are averaging 70 or fewer rushing ypg, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (277) New York Giants |
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10-02-16 | Rams v. Cardinals -7.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Cardinals are a disappointing 1-2 on the season following a blowout loss in Buffalo last Sunday. The Cardinals lost the turnover battle 5-1 so the fact they outgained the Bills by 51 yards meant nothing. This is a big game for Arizona as a loss would drop it two games behind the Rams and potentially Seattle should the Seahawks defeat the Jets earlier in the day. We feel we are getting good value with this number because it has been adjusted due to the fact that Arizona has covered just two of its last seven home games. Los Angeles is off to a 2-1 start but it is a fraudulent record to say the least. The Rams have been outgained in all three of their games and it has been substantial as they have been outgained by an average of 103.3 ypg. That makes the record very misleading and gives Arizona a huge opportunity to bounce back. Not counting Week 17 last season as that game meant nothing, the Cardinals lost only one other home game and that came against the Rams so there is definitely revenge coming into play. Here, we play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 61-30 ATS (67 percent) since 1983. Additionally, under head Bruce Arians, the Cardinals are 13-5 ATS versus teams allowing 350 or more ypg. 10* (274) Arizona Cardinals |
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10-02-16 | Cowboys v. 49ers +2 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Hold your nose for this one. San Francisco is back home following a pair of road losses to Carolina and Seattle, two of the NFC heavyweights, both of which came by 19 points. The 49ers won their lone home game against the Rams, a game in which they dominated by not allowing a single point while outgaining Los Angeles by 135 total yards. San Francisco is No. 14 in the NFL in points scored while ranking No. 20 in total defense and those rankings are far from horrible. Dallas has looked pretty good so far this season with a 2-1 record and it could easily be 3-0 as the one loss came by just a single point to the Giants but the numbers that back up that record have not been as good. Overall, the Cowboys have outgained their opponents by just 17 yards total with the host holding the advantage in all three games. Dak Prescott has done a solid job at quarterback but Dallas should not be favored on the road in this spot as it is based on perception of Dallas being now a strong team and San Francisco being horrible once again. That really is not the case however. San Francisco has a contrarian rushing situation in its favor as we play against road favorites that are allowing 90 or fewer rushing ypg, after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards last game. This situation is 51-22 ATS (69.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (270) San Francisco 49ers |
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10-02-16 | Browns +7.5 v. Redskins | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -102 | 45 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Game of the Week. Washington picked up its first win of the season last week against the Giants but did not play particularly well. The Redskins were outgained by 54 yards as the defense struggled yet again and they are now allowing 424.7 ypg and 30.7 ppg, both ranked No. 29 in the league. The offense moved the ball okay but were unable to sustain drives as they were 0-4 in the redzone and had to settle for five field goals. Cleveland lost another heartbreaker last week as it fell in overtime against the Dolphins. This came after blowing a 20-0 lead against Baltimore and while the Browns are 0-3, they have played better than that. Cody Kessler played pretty decent in his first start at quarterback and gets a much easier test this week with the Washington defense. On the other side, cornerback Joe Haden returns after missing last week with a groin injury and his presence will be important here. Two situations favor the Browns as well. First, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win by three points or less over a division rival, with a losing record. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after a loss by 6 or less points. This situation is 86-40 ATS (68.3 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Washington is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (253) Cleveland Browns |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins +7.5 v. Bengals | Top | 7-22 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
A pair of struggling teams take the field Thursday night as Miami and Cincinnati are both off to 1-2 starts. The schedules have not been easy for either team but that is really no excuse as both are underachieving. Miami nearly fell to 0-3 but escaped with an overtime win last week against Cleveland which was playing with a third-string rookie quarterback and it still outgained the Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Bengals are a field goal miss away from being 0-3 as they opened the season with a win against the Jets thanks to a 47-yard field goal from Mike Nugent with just 54 seconds remaining. Cincinnati has lost its last two games to Pittsburgh and Denver which is nothing to be ashamed of but both of those games could have gone either way. That being said, the fact we have two desperate teams in need of a big win means we should have a very competitive game as there is very little dropoff between Miami and Cincinnati. Yet, the linesmakers are giving Cincinnati a lot of credit here but it has done nothing to prove it deserves it. Miami was a 5.5-point underdog at New England two weeks ago and even without Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are a better team than the Bengals. Additionally, the Dolphins are seeing over a 17-point swing from last week to this week which is a huge variance in this league and one that should prove to be too big. Miami has not been a touchdown underdog to any team not named New England since September of 2013. 10* (101) Miami Dolphins |
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09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 45-32 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
New Orleans comes into Monday night in pretty much must win mode and it could not happen on a better night. This is the 10-year anniversary of the re-opening of the Superdome in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. It is almost 10 years ago to the day that the Saints defeated the Falcons 23-3 highlighted by the epic Steve Gleason blocked punt return and while the atmosphere will not be as crazy, it will be close. New Orleans dropped its opener against the Raiders by a point on a last second two-point conversion at home before losing by a field goal last week in New York against the Giants so it has been victim of some unfortunate luck. The Falcons meanwhile have split their first two games, losing at home by a touchdown to the Buccaneers and winning in Oakland by a touchdown last week. Matt Ryan has looked outstanding in his first two gamers and he will be asked to shoulder the load once again as without any pressure up front, Atlanta's defense has struggled. The Falcons unit ranks 26th against the run, 23rd against the pass and second-to-last in sacks per pass attempt. The Saints defense is not much better but they put together a great gameplan last week as they used a lot of packages employing three safeties and played more zone coverage. Under head coach Sean Payton, New Orleans has gone 14-4 against the Falcons including an 8-2 record at home since 2006. Going back, the Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss while the Falcons are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (490) New Orleans Saints |
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09-25-16 | Bears +8 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -125 | 76 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Star Attraction. Chicago has gotten off to a rough start by going 0-2 but it has not been as bad as that record shows. The Bears hung tough with the Texans in Week One before losing by nine points and last week they were did in by the Eagles and had no chance after Jay Cutler went down. Brian Hoyer will be starting this week and while he was unable to mount a comeback last week, having a full week of preparation instead of getting thrown into the fire is big. The Cowboys have split their two games with the Giants and Redskins and easily could also be sitting at 0-2. While the Dallas defense has allowed just 21.5 ppg, the unit has not been very good as they have allowed 374 ypg. Dak Prescott has played pretty well for a rookie but he has an 83.1 passer rating and while he has yet to throw a pick, he has yet to throw a touchdown either. Because of the Cutler injury, this line is way overpriced as these teams are not that far off from each other. Dallas has notoriously been a poor play as a home favorite as it has covered just of its last 25 games in this role. Going back to 2014, Chicago is 1-11 in its last 12 home games but a much more respectable 5-4 in its last nine road games. Additionally, the Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. 10* (487) Chicago Bears |
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09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs -5 | Top | 37-32 | Loss | -114 | 72 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Tampa Bay played a great game in its season opening win over Atlanta and it was just the opposite last week at Arizona as the Buccaneers were throttled 40-7 no thanks to five turnovers including four interceptions from Jameis Winston. Expect a big bounce back effort from him and we will no doubt see a better effort from the defense that has allowed 32 ppg. This is the home opener for Tampa Bay and while its home field advantage is not a great one, it is more advantageous this time of year because of the heat and humidity. The Rams have been just the opposite through two games as well but theirs have been reversed. They were awful in their opener against a horrible San Francisco teams, losing 28-0 and getting outgained by 135 yards. Last week, Los Angeles upset the Seahawks at home but managed only nine points on offense in doing so. This offense has a long ways o go and while the defense looked very strong against the Seahawks, Seattle has its own offensive issues going on. The Rams were still outgained last week despite the win. This line has been creeping yup but for good reason and we will back the favorite in what could have blowout potential. Going back, the Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (480) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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09-25-16 | Vikings +7 v. Panthers | Top | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 69 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Game of the Month. This is a complete overreaction to what happened last week. After losing to Denver in their season opener, the Panthers rolled over San Francisco on Sunday. They outgained the 49ers by 227 total yards in what was an awful situation for San Francisco coming off a short week win and having to play an early game on the east coast against a well-rested team. That line closed at 12 and there is no chance that the 49ers are only five points worse than Minnesota. The Vikings meanwhile are 2-0 as they defeated Tennessee on the road before winning last Sunday night at home against Green Bay. Sam Bradford was exceptional in his first start but the bigger story was the loss of Adrian Peterson who is likely out for the season. While he is tough to replace, he is not the same player and has lost a step for sure. He averaged just 1.6 ypc in 31 carries so was doing nothing special anyway. The Norv Turner/Bradford offense is arguably better off now as they can open things up more which is better equipped for this team. The defense as they have allowed just 289.5 ypg and 15 ppg, No. 5 and No. 6 respectively in the NFL. The Panthers have covered seven straight games at home which is adding to the value but the Vikings have been better, going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games while covering 14 of their last 17 games following a win. 10* (475) Minnesota Vikings |
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09-25-16 | Ravens v. Jaguars +1.5 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -102 | 69 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. This is the classic look at the records matchup which had affected the line. Baltimore comes in undefeated and is the worst 2-0 team in the league at this point. The Ravens defeated a hapless Bills team by only six points and then beat Cleveland last week in part due to the injury of Browns quarterback Josh McCown who was not the same after having to get checked out. They were actually outgained by the Browns and overall, the defense is overrated based on who they have played while the offense can be held accountable for the same thing. Jacksonville meanwhile is 0-2 but has played better than that. The Jaguars are tied for last in the NFL in turnover margin at -3 which has been part of the issue but it has to be noted that they have outgained both opponents thus far albeit not by much but all that matter is they have been on the positive. So now because we have two teams with opposite records, the Ravens come in as a road favorite. It is interesting to note that last November, with a healthy Joe Flacco, Baltimore was favored by only five points at home and there is no way they are a much better team now. And Jacksonville won. This is a much bigger game for the Jaguars and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (468) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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09-25-16 | Redskins +5 v. Giants | Top | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 69 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This is another example of records dictating the line. The Redskins have dropped their first two games and while they lost to Pittsburgh by 22 points, they were outgained by just 53 total yards but two turnovers in bad spots, nine penalties and having to settle for field goals did them in. Last week, they had a chance to beat the Cowboys but fell just short despite outgaining Dallas by 52 total yards. The rushing defense has been the issue but the Giants do not possess a strong running attack like the ones they have already faced. New York is 2-0 but it is an ugly 2-0 as it has won both games by a combined four points. The Giants did outgain New Orleans by 129 yards but were unable to complete drives against a bad Saints defense and their only touchdown came via a blocked field goal return. Now because of the opposing records, the Giants are overvalued as with this being a divisional game against pretty equal teams, the line should be -3 so catching anything above that presents solid value. The Giants defense is a very solid unit but the Redskins have the playmakers to take advantage. Washington can ill afford to fall three games out of first place in the NFC East after just three games so we will see an all-out effort on both sides of the ball. 10* (471) Washington Redskins |
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09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots +1.5 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 16 m | Show |
Two of the five undefeated teams in the AFC square off and we will be backing the home team missing its top two quarterbacks. We played on New England opening week at Arizona and mentioned a big reason for playing the Patriots was head coach Bill Belichick and that reason is even bigger in this one. Rookie Jacoby Brissett will be making his first ever start and while that normally would be a play against spot depending on the situation, Belichick is not going to be throwing him into the fire and make him win a game by himself. Brissett went 6-9 for 92 yards against Miami and while his experience is minimal, the preparation time for the Texans to go against him is even worse considering they have little to no game film on him. Houston has cruised in both of its wins but both of those took place at home, one again what seems to be another lousy Chicago team and the other against a Kansas City team it was seeking revenge from after a 30-0 defeat in the playoffs last season. The Houston defense has done its job, but again, that has all taken place at home and the offense has struggled by averaging only 347.5 ypg which is just No. 19 in the NFL. This marks only the fifth game since the start of the 2002 season that the Patriots are home underdogs and this is where New England will be even more motivated because of that. The Patriots fall into a situation where we play on home teams coming off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (302) New England Patriots |
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09-18-16 | Colts +6.5 v. Broncos | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Star Attraction. The Colts lost a shootout at home against the Lions, spoiling the return of Andrew Luck who ended up missing nine games last season. The loss had nothing to do with him however as he was awesome, throwing for 385 yards and four touchdowns with a 66 percent completion rate. His last game a year ago happened to come against Denver, a 27-24 win at home. The defense was obviously the issue as Matthew Stafford went off as well but the Colts should not have to worry as much this week about getting lit up. We won with the Broncos last Thursday and while they have a big scheduling advantage here because of time off and no travel, the Broncos are severely overpriced in this matchup. The defense is arguably the best in the NFL but the Indianapolis offense presents a bunch of challenges and it put up 365 yards in the meeting last season against virtually the same defense. This offense is good enough to play catch up against even the elite defenses as long as a healthy Luck is around. Additionally, he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL coming off a loss as he has gone 16-4 both straight up and against the number following a defeat. That is a very impressive record and as one of the biggest game preparers, it makes sense. The Colts are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the Broncos are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. 10* (281) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-18-16 | Seahawks v. Rams +7 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 54 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The first game since returning to Los Angeles was not a good one for the Rams as they got embarrassed by the 49ers 28-0. The offense was pathetic with just 185 total yards as Case Keenum was inconsistent at quarterback and Todd Gurley could get nothing going on the ground. Because of the horrible display, they are catching a huge number in their first home game in Los Angeles in 20 years. Teams are not as bad as they looked in their last game like we saw on Thursday with the Bills that showed some offensive life but it was their defense that let them down. The Rams actually have a solid defense and they will come to play on Sunday. Seattle escaped with a win over Miami as it scored the go ahead touchdown with just 31 seconds remaining and avoided a season opening loss for the second straight season. They also avoided a serious injury as Russell Wilson went down with an ankle injury that looked worse than it was but he is still not going to be playing at a 100 percent level this week. The Rams play the Seahawks tough the majority of the time as they have won four of the last eight meetings while two of the four losses were by a touchdown or less. They have won three of the last four at home with the lone defeat being by just five points and the home edge Sunday should be even that much better. The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (280) Los Angeles Rams |
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09-18-16 | Dolphins +6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Game of the Week. The schedulemakers did Miami no favors by putting them on the road the first two weeks of the season at Seattle and at New England. They played excellent last week against the Seahawks and really should have won the game despite getting outgained by 138 total yards. Nonetheless, Miami catches a depleted New England roster so it can be argued they actually caught a break getting the Patriots this early in this spot. New England picked up the upset win at Arizona last Sunday night as head coach Bill Belichick put together a masterful plan and you give him extra time to formulate a gameplan and the other team is in for a long day. The Patriots return home for the first of three straight games at Gillette Stadium so they definitely caught a break with the schedule by having three of the four games that Tom Brady is missing taking place at home. New England has dominated this series at with four straight victories by double-digits but you know who was the quarterback for the Patriots in all four of those games. Jimmy Garoppolo had a very strong showing in his first NFL start but again, the gameplan and the fact that no one had even seen him in an NFL regular season game was a big advantage and now Miami has the luxury of watching game film. Here we play on underdogs or pickems that has a winning percentage between .250 and .400 last season, in conference games. This situation is 65-30 ATS (68.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (265) Miami Dolphins |
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09-18-16 | Ravens v. Browns +7 | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. You have to feel bad for RGIII after working hard to get back in the NFL as a starter and then go down with a broken shoulder bone and it out until at least Week Nine. Cleveland though is not in bad shape because of it as Josh McCown will take over. In eight starts last season, he put up a solid 93.3 passer rating until he broke his collarbone and that happened to come against the Ravens so he will certainly be motivated here for some payback. The Browns were competitive for a while last week as they trailed the Eagles by just five points late in the third quarter before Philadelphia closed with a pair of touchdowns. Now they head home and are catching more points than they did last week against a team that should not at all be considered better than the Eagles. Baltimore won an ugly 13-7 game over the Bills last Sunday as the Ravens limited Buffalo to just 160 total yards. While some of that can be attributed to the defense, the Buffalo offense is in shambles we witnessed Thursday so that is a deceptive yardage allowed total. This line makes zero sense at all. They were favored last week by three at home and now it is a 10-point line swing against a team that is on the same plane as Buffalo. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (268) Cleveland Browns |
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09-18-16 | 49ers v. Panthers -13.5 | Top | 27-46 | Win | 100 | 50 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Going into this game, many would have thought the records of these two teams would be reversed but instead, Carolina enters Week Two 0-1 while San Francisco comes in with a 1-0 record. From a situational standpoint, it does not get much better with a Panthers team that has lost its last two games returning home where they went 10-0 last season and has won 13 in a row overall. Additionally, they are playing with added rest because of the Thursday game last week while the 49ers are playing on short rest following their game on Monday. Making it tough for San Francisco is the fact that this is an early game for a west coast team which is always a difficult spot. If this whole scenario sound familiar, it is because it is. Last season, San Francisco won its Monday night game in an upset over the Vikings and then travelled the next week to Pittsburgh which was coming off a Thursday night loss to the Patriots for an early start game. The Steelers rolled 43-18 and a similar outcome can be expected this Sunday. This situation has been profitable for years as we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. The 49ers are just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 Sunday games following a Monday night game while the Panthers are 14-1 ATS under head coach Ron Rivera coming off a road loss. 10* (276) Carolina Panthers |
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09-15-16 | Jets v. Bills +1 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -102 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
Week One saw a lot of offense in the NFL but Buffalo was not in that group, not even close. the Bills managed only 160 total yards and seven points against the Ravens and while many are saying this is a must win game for the Jets, the same can be said about the other side. Buffalo can ill afford to drop to 0-2 with Arizona and New England on deck. The Jets lost a tough one on Sunday as they dropped their game against Cincinnati by a point. Unfortunately, it came down to a missed extra point and now New York hits the road to the same place where its season ended last year in a 22-17 loss to the Bills. The Jets will be out for revenge but playing road revenge is not a good recommendation. For Buffalo, quarterback Tyrod Taylor was ok last week but did not make any big plays what he is certainly capable of. Last season, Taylor threw for 3,035 yards, 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. In fact, his 99.4 QBR was ranked seventh in the NFL. Additionally, the he rushed for 568 yards, scoring four touchdowns on the ground. His two starts last season against the Jets were solid and while his numbers were not over the top, he managed both games well. On the other side, the Buffalo secondary is the strength and the Bills held the Jets to under 200 passing yards in both matchups last season. Buffalo won its final four games at home last season and the crown will be a big factor for their first game that happens to be in primetime. We are getting great value here as this game opened with the Bills being a three-point favorite and now they are an underdog in some spots. 10* (102) Buffalo Bills |
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09-12-16 | Steelers v. Redskins +2.5 | Top | 38-16 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
As we saw on Sunday, a large number of heavy public favorites failed to cover the number and overall, the chalk is 4-10 through the first 14 games. Lines are based on some of the numbers of last season as well as expectations for this season and we are seeing a strong case of that here. Even though Washington won the division last year, it is not getting a ton of respect and has actually been picked to finish last in the NFC East (prior to Romo injury) in a few places which really makes no sense. The Redskins bowed out of the playoffs last season in the Wildcard Round following a 4-0 finish to the regular season and they are only better this year. Pittsburgh is once again picked to win the AFC North and this is no doubt a talented team being favored on the road is a tad overaggressive. The Steelers were favored on the road only twice all of last regular season and those games were Week 16 and Week 17 against Baltimore and Cleveland which were meaningless games for the opposition. Pittsburgh finished No. 30 in the NFL last season against the pass and will have a tough time defending DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and tight end Jordan Reed. Additionally, the Steelers are banged up on the defensive line so getting any sort of pressure on Kirk Cousins may not happen which will put the secondary in more troubling situations. This line has been bet down to under a field goal in some places but with the public once again hammering the road favorite, we are fine with it and it likely will back up prior to gametime. 10* (480) Washington Redskins |
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09-11-16 | Patriots +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 76 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the PATRIOTS for our Sunday Night Primetime. The Patriots come into the season with a lot of hype but so much in the beginning of the season. With Tom Brady out the first four games, Jimmy Garoppolo and he should be all set to manage this game properly. The reason behind that is head coach Bill Belichick who loves playing the underdog card and it would not be surprising at all to see Brady come back to a 4-0 record. This line is telling us that the Patriots are pretty serious underdogs but player for player, there is not much of a difference between these two teams with the exception of the quarterback obviously. Arizona had a season a year ago but I do not expect a repeat of that. The Cardinals were fortunate that Seattle got off to a slow start but even with that, you have to give them credit for running the table. If this game were played at this time last year, Arizona may be a three-point favorite at best and there will not be any sneaking up on teams this season and you have to think there has to be some sort of regression. Carolina helped the rest of the league out by showing how to shut Carson Palmer and the rest of the offense down in the playoffs and we can guarantee Belichick has watched that tape a few times. The Patriots strength is the back end of the defense and that is where Palmer carved up a lot of teams last season. Belichick always puts a premium on preventing big plays, and his defense created 10 turnovers during the preseason. Despite going 6-2 at home last season, the Cardinals went just 1-6 ATS over their last seven home games. 10* (477) New England Patriots |
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09-11-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 69 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Game of the Week. The Chargers last won the division back in 2009 and have made the playoffs only one time since then but there is a possibility that changes this season as they are a sleeper by many. Last year, they had their fewest wins since 2003 so they are being counted out already however San Diego was killed by injuries last season and was done because of that. Now healthy, the Chargers could make a run in the division as farfetched as that may sound. The biggest issue was the offensive line but is back to full strength and will give Philip Rivers time in the pocket and open some holes for Melvin Gordon. The Chiefs were not strong enough last season to catch Denver but they certainly turned some heads after winning their final 10 regular season games following a 1-5 start. They blanked the Texans in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs but lost to the Patriot the following week. The biggest concern for Kansas City is its defense as three key players are banged up including Justin Houston who will be out at least seven weeks. Offensively, their offensive line was a concern and while they tried to make improvements in the offseason, the jury is still out if that will be the case. Stopping the run will be big for the Chargers and they have added depth. Kansas City has won four straight meetings in this series but this is a clean slate and almost the opposite of when they met last season as the Chargers are the healthy team, sans Joey Bosa who would have been a nonfactor anyway, and the Chiefs are the banged up squad. Despite all of the struggles and injuries last season, San Diego covered its last six road games, three of those where it was getting a touchdown or more and the Chargers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when getting seven or more points. 10* (463) San Diego Chargers |
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09-11-16 | Bears +6 v. Texans | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the BEARS for our Sunday Enforcer. The Bears are another team people have already written off but they have a chance to be a surprise in the NFC. While Chicago lost Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett, it had one of the best drafts in the NFL while also having the best free agency in the NFC. Injuries played a big factor in the struggles last season as only four players started all 16 games so the unfortunate luck there should turn around. Additionally, the Bears will have Kevin White, who missed all of last season, paired up with Alshon Jeffry to give Jay Cutler two solid weapons outside. The Bears defense was awful last year but John Fox is in his second season and should have the defense in a better spot thanks to some great offseason pickups. The big injury new for Houston is J.J. Watt who is banged up but plans to play Sunday. The real injury news though is on the offensive line where two starters are out and that could prove to be a big problem for newly acquired players Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller. Houston made a nice run last season after a 2-5 start as it closed by going 7-2 and was able to back in to a division win because of the Colts injury issues. The Texans went 4-0 in the preseason which means nothing and going back, teams that went undefeated in the preseason and are home favorites in Week One are just 4-11-1 ATS the last 15. Conversely, the Bears went 0-3 in their first three preseason games when starters saw action and that is being taken into account way too much and adding value. Despite going 6-10 last season, the Bears went 5-3 on the road and covered six of their last seven. Houston is the biggest public consensus for Sunday and we will go against that here. 10* (467) Chicago Bears |
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09-11-16 | Packers v. Jaguars +5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 69 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the JAGUARS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. You have to love going against the hype early in the season as that is what lines are made from, hype and expectations. This is most certainly the case with Green Bay which struggled to find any consistency but now are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl. Even though we can expect a highly motivated Packers team, high expectations can create pressure and the pressure is certainly on. While Green Bay used to have no one to give them much resistance, the Vikings are a team on the rise even without Teddy Bridgewater so winning the division is far from a guarantee. Green Bay does in fact have the talent to make a run but coming out of the gates as a big road favorite against an up and coming team is very aggressive. Jacksonville had arguably the best offseason of any team in the league and it came on the needed side. The Jaguars had one of the worst defenses in the league last season but on signing day, they picked up defensive lineman Malik Jackson, safety Tashaun Gipson and cornerback Prince Amukamara. Additionally, they got linebacker Miles Jack and cornerback Jalen Ramsey via the draft not to mention the top pick last year, defensive end Dante Fowler who missed the season after tearing his ACL on the first day on mini-camp. Offensively, Jacksonville has the chance to be a very explosive group and it will be up to the offensive line to keep things together. Quarterback Bortles was ranked seventh with 4,428 passing yards and second with 35 touchdowns last season. There is a reason Jacksonville has covered 12 of its last 17 season openers and that is because the expectations are always low in the eyes of the public and the oddsmakers have to adjust. In this case, it was an overadjustment. 10* (470) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 108 | 53 h 45 m | Show |
Going back a few years, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers including Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. That changed in 2012 when the Giants lost at home against Dallas and continued three years ago when Baltimore had to go on the road to Denver because of a conflict with the Orioles and got thumped. Two years ago, Seattle easily defeated Green Bay and last year, New England ended up pushing with the Steelers. This being said, Super bowl losers have been horrendous against the number in their first game the following season, going 3-16 ATS over the last 19 games. What Carolina did during the regular season and even in the NFC Playoffs was pretty remarkable but it was done against a fairly easy schedule. The Panthers did beat Seattle on the road but that took a 28-yard touchdown pass in the final minute and they did not defeat any other team on the road that eventually made the playoffs. The Broncos lost their two quarterbacks from last season but it should not be much of a dropoff. Managing the game is the key and Trevor Siemian has the ability to do that. The Denver defense was No. 1 in total defense and No. 4 in scoring defense and it could be even better this season. As far as the line goes, the public has moved this number four points with Carolina now a field goal favorite on the road meaning it would be a double-digit favorite at home and that makes zero sense. Denver should be extremely motivated here to come out strong in defense of its Super Bowl win as well as not accepting the fact it is an underdog here at home. 10* (452) Denver Broncos |
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02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 249 h 32 m | Show |
Public reaction and recent results are playing a big role in this Super Bowl line which is the case every year considering this is the most wagered on game across all sport by a wide margin. Carolina rolled through the playoffs with very impressive home wins as they destroyed Arizona after jumping up on Seattle 31-0 the previous week. Conversely, Denver escaped with a pair of close wins at home against Pittsburgh and New England so those games alone are going to inflate this line. The Panthers have just one loss this season which is a big reason they are a significant favorite but of course that one loss came away from home and of their seven wins, only one came against a playoff team when they scored a late touchdown to take care of the Seahawks. There is a very interesting dynamic in this game and it is based on recent results and how the linesmakers need to open and move lines based on those results. Since 2004, 15 teams have scored 40 or more points in a playoff game with another playoff game upcoming and the results have not been good for those teams. The team that scored 40 or more points has gone on to lose 9 of the next 15 playoff games outright while going just 2-12-1 ATS. One of those covers came in last year's Super Bowl which was just a yard away from being a different result while the other ATS win came back in 2010 when the Packers defeated the Bears 21-14 in a game where Jay Cutler was lost to injury and Chicago was down to third string quarterback Caleb Hanie. Additionally, of those six outright follow up wins, that Green Bay win was the only one by more than four points. Denver is the 12th team in history to enter the Super Bowl with the top scoring defense in the NFL and 9 of the previous 11 left with an outright victory. Listening to the TV talking heads, many are shocked the line is this low and they are saying this one has the look of the Denver and Seattle Super Bowl from two years ago. That's what we like to hear. 10* (102) Denver Broncos |
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01-24-16 | Cardinals +3 v. Panthers | Top | 15-49 | Loss | -102 | 124 h 58 m | Show |
The favorites have won seven of the first eight playoff games, even though the underdog has covered most of those, so it comes as no surprise that the early public consensus is on both favorites this week and that is likely heightened because the lines are in the field goal range. After the road team won all four Wild Card Round games, the home team took all four Divisional Round games by six or seven points. It was a good indication that the bye teams had a significant edge over the team that had just won on the road the previous week. The dynamic is different this week though as the road teams are coming off home wins with the Cardinals being one of those teams. While it can be argued they escaped with the victory in overtime thanks to Green Bay never seeing the ball, the game really should have never gone into overtime. Arizona was certainly sloppy last week, most notably Carson Palmer who made some poor throws that led to two costly interceptions but he still completed 61 percent of his passes for 349 yards and three touchdowns. The Cardinals bring in a different offense than what Seattle brought into Carolina as they can stretch it out more and have more balance as they were the only team in the regular season to finish in the top ten in both rushing and passing offense. Carolina built a huge lead last Sunday and barely held on while getting outgained by 108 yards as costly mistakes by the Seahawks on the wrong sides of the field did them in. The Cardinals won and covered their only game as an underdog this season and going back, they are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS loss. Additionally, we play on road underdogs or pickems after two consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. This situation is 71-35 ATS (67 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (313) Arizona Cardinals |
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01-24-16 | Patriots -3 v. Broncos | Top | 18-20 | Loss | -101 | 120 h 18 m | Show |
The favorites have won seven of the first eight playoff games, even though the underdog has covered most of those, so it comes as no surprise that the early public consensus is on both favorites this week and that is likely heightened because the lines are in the field goal range. After the road team won all four Wild Card Round games, the home team took all four Divisional Round games by six or seven points. It was a good indication that the bye teams had a significant edge over the team that had just won on the road the previous week. The dynamic is different this week though as the road teams are coming off home wins with the Patriots being one of those teams. The linesmakers were forced to make New England a favorite here knowing what sort of action would be coming in. The first look here is at the home underdog but this is a tough matchup for Denver now that the Patriots are healthy. The offensive line did a great job last week in protection, not allowing a single sack or hit, and it is the quick passing game that will give the Broncos fits this time around. Denver was pretty fortunate to win last week against a depleted Steelers team and the offense clearly cannot carry this team. The Patriots have a very underrated front seven and they are going to force Peyton Manning to win this game with his arm which will not happen. Over the last 30 yards, the No. 1 seed has been a home underdog in the Conference Championship and has lost all three times. While revenge isn't a big factor when it comes to big games like this, the Patriots are 11-1 ATS revenging a same season loss as a road favorite and that comes down to coaching. The home team has won and covered the six meetings in this series with Brady vs. Manning but the latter is not close to the same player from past meetings. 10* (311) New England Patriots |
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01-17-16 | Steelers v. Broncos -7.5 | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This line was on and off the board all week due to the Steelers injury situation and has been confirmed that both Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams are out. The number reached nine in a couple places but settled back down to -7.5 and while we are on the wrong side of the key number of seven, it should not come into play here. Don't be surprised to see this one go up more by gametime so betting it early in the day is likely the right move. The absence of Williams last week against Cincinnati did not matter as the Steelers rushed for 167 yards on 29 carries (5.8 ypc) but things will be tougher here. The Broncos bring in the top ranked rushing defense, allowing just 3.3 ypc compared to the Bengals which allowed a full yard more per carry. One stat that came into play yesterday was the Patriots have averaged 6.9 yppl when Julian Edelman plays which is first in the NFL and when he doesn't play, they average 4.7 yppl which is dead last in the league. We saw what a difference it made yesterday. For the Steelers, when Brown is off the field which was only 88 plays over the past couple of seasons, the Steelers average just 1.6 yppl. On the other side, we don't anticipate Peyton Manning to carry the offense but he is clearly as healthy as he has been all season and an improved running game will definitely help. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (308) Denver Broncos |
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01-17-16 | Seahawks +3 v. Panthers | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -116 | 148 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEAHAWKS for our NFL Playoff Game of the Year. Seattle has no business being here as it was able to advance thanks to a missed 27-yard field goal from the Vikings. But in reality, the Seahawks played a great game in elements they are not accustomed to and I foresee them taking advantage of this opportunity. Offensively, it was a challenge and the weather did play a role in that which I did not think it would so it came down to the defenses and both played exceptional. Seattle allowed just three field goals, although it should have been four, and this defense continues to dominate as over their last six road games, they have allowed an average of 7.2 ppg and even more impressive, they have allowed an offensive touchdown only once in those six games. The Carolina offense goes as Cam Newton goes so shutting him down, or at least slowing him down, is the key for the Seahawks defense. That may be stating the obvious but we saw it in the first meeting this season in Seattle as they shut the Panthers down the majority of the game until the ferocious comeback by Carolina which pulled off the upset as a touchdown underdog. While this is a No. 1 vs. No. 6 matchup, it is far from that at this point in the season. Seattle falls into a great spot as we play on road underdogs or pickems that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after a win by three or less points. This situation is 68-35 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games in the second half of the season against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers per game while the Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (305) Seattle Seahawks |
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01-16-16 | Packers +7 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 79 h 49 m | Show |
This number is stuck on seven as of Wednesday afternoon and likely is not going to move until gameday when public money comes pouring in on the Cardinals. A big reason for that is they have been a great home team this year, or are they? Arizona blew away San Francisco and Green Bay but the other four wins were all within just one possession late in the game. The win over Green Bay is affecting the betting market as well as the Packers were destroyed by 30 points as they were never in it. We will see a better Green Bay performance here as the Packers finally woke up last week with a big win in Washington. The line is also on our side as high as it is as underdogs of at least seven points have gone 29-19 ATS (60.4 percent) during the postseason including a 17-9 ATS record (65.4 percent) during the Divisional Round. That record improves to 11-2 ATS (84.6 percent) when the favorite is getting more than 50 percent of the action. Additionally, road teams are 14-3 ATS (82.4 percent) since 2005 in the Divisional Round when coming off a road win. Two of those three covers losses were by just 4.5 points combined (Baltimore by 3.5 points in 2010 against Pittsburgh and Washington by 1 point in 2005 against Seattle. Granted, all four game fall into this situation but this is one of only two games where major recent injuries are not coming into play. The Packers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after that first meeting in Week 16 and adjustments will be made to fix some of the problems that occurred. Going back, the Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff road games while the Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. 10* (303) Green Bay Packers |
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01-16-16 | Chiefs v. Patriots -5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 9 m | Show |
Kansas City is coming off its 11th straight win as it went to Houston last Saturday, returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown and never looked back in a 30-0 victory. The score shows a domination but the Chiefs only outgained the Texans by 88 total yards as they were fortunate that Brian Hoyer played one of his worst games ever and took advantage of five Houston turnovers. The Chiefs take a big step up in class here as they head to New England to take on the Patriots and we are getting a good value line here. New England got a much needed week off to rest and heal up as well as getting a break following two losses to end the regular season. Both of those losses came on the road and the Patriots come in with a 7-1 home record. The lone loss came against the Eagles where they won the yardage battle by 179 yards but Philadelphia scored two touchdowns on special teams and another on a 99-yard interception return. The Patriots are getting Julian Edelman back which is a huge boost for the offense. To put it into perspective, the Patriots have averaged 6.9 yppl when Edelman plays which is first in the NFL and when he doesn't play, they average 4.7 yppl which is dead last in the league. Here, we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 37-16 ATS (69.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, New England is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams averaging 5.65 or fewer yppl and 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games after being outgained by 150 or more ypg in its previous game. 10* (302) New England Patriots |
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01-10-16 | Packers v. Redskins -1 | Top | 35-18 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on WASHINGTON for our NFL Game of the Year. Surprisingly, Washington is the lone home favorite in this year's Wild Card round and it might not even last considering that the Packers are, and will be in the postseason, a very public team. We played on Green Bay this past Sunday as it was trying to clinch the NFC North and it failed to do so at home no less. The Packers may have been better off with that loss as heading to Washington is arguably a better opportunity to win than playing Seattle in the first round but at this point, the Packers are just not a good football team. Green Bay has played only one bad game since the end of October as it is 3-3 in its last six games and one of those wins came on a Hail Mary and another came against Oakland in a game they lost the yardage battle by 79 yards. Washington meanwhile is peaking at the right time as it has won four straight games to claim the NFC East. The offense has been sensational over this stretch and can go toe-to-toe with the Packers if need be but that won't be necessary. While the Redskins yardage differential is not very good, finding ways to win is what counts and that is what they have been doing. They are 6-1 in their last seven home games, covering five of those and a win here likely means a cover. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record while the Redskins are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (108) Washington Redskins |
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01-09-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +2.5 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 102 | 103 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on CINCINNATI for our Saturday Enforcer. This is the second meeting here in a month and the Bengals will be out to avenge a loss from that game. That was the game quarterback Andy Dalton was injured so there is definitely some added motivation even though the rivalry alone is sufficient. It is pretty common knowledge that Cincinnati has struggled during the postseason over the recent years but this is the best Bengals team during this stretch even though they come in on an average 4-4 run over the second half. Cincinnati actually outgained the Steelers in that loss while the other three losses came by just 3, 3 and 4 points. Dalton has not been declared out but has been downgraded to doubtful which means it is pretty much assured he is not going to play. A.J. McCarron has been very solid however and will be just fine here. Obviously the Steelers and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger have a lot more expereience and its offense continues to roll but take away an interception return for a touchdown and Pittsburgh has averaged just 18 ppg in the first two meetings. Cincinnati hasn't won a playoff game since the 1990 season, the sixth-longest streak of postseason futility in NFL history and I really believe this is the best opportunity for to end, Dalton or no Dalton. Here, we play on home teams that are coming off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 50-20 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (106) Cincinnati Bengals |
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01-09-16 | Chiefs v. Texans +3.5 | Top | 30-0 | Loss | -113 | 99 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on HOUSTON for our Saturday Ultimate Underdog. This is a rematch of the Week One meeting that the Chiefs won 27-20 before going on to lost five straight games. It has been quite the turnaround however as Kansas City enters the playoffs as the hottest team in the NFL with a 10-game winning streak but this has to be one of the least dominant teams involved in a streak of this magnitude. The Chiefs are outgaining opponents by less than two ypg and a lot of that is because of an anemic offense that is ranked 27th overall. They make it up with a solid defense but even those rankings are not as good as those from Houston. The Texans won their last three games to win the AFC South and while those wins were all against poor teams, Houston owns quality wins over the Jets and Bengals and on the season, they are outgaining opponents by 37.6 ypg. With Brian Hoyer back at quarterback, the Texans offense has an extra spark as he quietly had a solid season with a 91.4 quarterback rating while tossing 19 touchdowns and just seven picks. Houston has been outgained just once in its last nine games and while a deep playoff run is unlikely, the matchup here is a good one and getting home points makes it even stronger. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record while the Texans are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (102) Houston Texans |
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01-03-16 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -115 | 79 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the PACKERS for our Sunday night Primetime game. The NFC North Divisional title is on the line Sunday night between the Vikings and Packers. We played on them last week and they burnt us badly as they were demolished in Arizona but we will be backing them again this week at home. Minnesota meanwhile destroyed the Giants last Sunday night in a game the Giants had nothing to play for so these two recent results is keeping this line at a manageable number. This game is nothing new for Green Bay as it will play for the NFC North title in the regular-season finale for a third straight season after winning the first two. It has been an up and down season for the Packers and despite two home losses, they actually won the yardage battle in those games. The offense has looked shaky as Aaron Rodgers has at times looked uncomfortable but this is the stage he loves as he has never lost a home divisional game when coming off a loss and facing an opponent that is coming off a victory. They also have a great situation on their side as we play on favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 coming off a road loss. This situation is 33-13 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (326) Green Bay Packers |
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01-03-16 | Raiders +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 75 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the RAIDERS for our NFL Game of the Week. We played against the Chiefs last week and will do so again this week as they continue to be overvalued. Sure, Kansas City has won nine straight games but has done so in ugly fashion as it has outgained only one opponent by more than 82 yards and the Chiefs have actually been outgained in four of their last five games. While there is more on the line for Kansas City, this is a big game for Oakland as a win would put the Raiders at 8-8 for the first time since 2011. On the season, Oakland is getting outgained by just 23.2 ypg and of their eight losses, four have come by less than what it is getting here. Additionally, the Raiders have the benefit of extra rest following their last game which was last Thursday. Here, we play against home favorites that are averaging 4.5 or more ypc going up against teams allowing between 3.5 and 4.5 ypc, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game. This situation is 46-15 ATS (75.4 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Raiders are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points while the Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (315) Oakland Raiders |
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01-03-16 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 75 h 58 m | Show |
There are four home underdogs this Sunday with three of those road favorites that have playoff positions and/or seedings on the line. Because of what is at stake, the linesmakers have to make bigger than normal adjustments which is typically the case during the final week of the regular season. The Rams are the lone road favorite with no playoff implications but their upset win last Sunday at Seattle coupled with the season long problems for San Francisco has put them in a rare road favorite role. St. Louis has won and covered three straight games while the 49ers have lost three in a row both straight up and against the number putting the home team in a great contrarian spot here. The real kicker is that despite the three straight victories, the Rams were outgained in all three games and have been outgained in seven straight games. San Francisco meanwhile has won the yardage battle in its last three home games. Here, we play against favorites after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 59-27 ATS (68.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last six games off a win against a division rival. 10* (330) San Francisco 49ers |
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01-03-16 | Lions v. Bears | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -114 | 72 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the BEARS for our Sunday Enforcer. Detroit has won two straight games and five of its last seven and it could be even better if not for that Green Bay successful Hail Mary a few weeks back. The Lions are just 2-5 on the road after finishing .500 at home. Chicago is coming off a win at Tampa Bay last week to bring in an identical 6-9 record as the Lions in a fight to stay out of the NFC North basement. We are catching a smaller than anticipated line because the Bears are just 1-6 at home including losses in four straight. Those all came by three points or less or in overtime, three coming against teams that will be in the postseason. The Bears will be out for some major payback as they have lost the last five meetings in this series. Additionally, they will look to avoid back-to-back double-digit losing seasons for the first time since 1999-2000. Chicago falls into a great situation as we play against underdogs or pickems that are allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 35-14 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (322) Chicago Bears |
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01-03-16 | Jets v. Bills +3 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 72 h 44 m | Show |
There are four home underdogs this Sunday with three of those road favorites that have playoff positions and/or seedings on the line. Because of what is at stake, the linesmakers have to make bigger than normal adjustments which is typically the case during the final week of the regular season. The Jets are coming off a huge win last week against the Patriots and a win here gets them into the playoffs. This line is inflated because of that as New York is 4-3 on the road while the Bills bring in an identical home record. While it was a disappointing season for Buffalo, getting back to .500 would be a solid achievement and of course, Rex Ryan would like nothing more than to prevent his former employers from making into the playoffs. Additionally, we play against favorites that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Jets are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a losing home record while the Bills are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. 10* (302) Buffalo Bills |
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01-03-16 | Patriots v. Dolphins +10 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 43 m | Show |
There are four home underdogs this Sunday with three of those road favorites that have playoff positions and/or seedings on the line. Because of what is at stake, the linesmakers have to make bigger than normal adjustments which is typically the case during the final week of the regular season. The Patriots lost last week in New York to prevent them from clinching home field advantage throughout the playoffs but a win in Miami still gets them that goal. Winning and covering are two different things however. New England is clearly the superior team in this matchup but that has been the case for a while in this series yet the Patriots have struggled here the last three years including two outright losses and a win by just seven points. Miami would like the season on a high note and snap a three-game skid. New England was favored by just four points more at home against Tennessee which shows the overinflation of this number. Miami falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (306) Miami Dolphins |
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12-28-15 | Bengals v. Broncos -3 | Top | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Playoff implications are on the line tonight in Denver for both the Broncos and Bengals. Because of the Steelers loss yesterday, Cincinnati clinched the AFC North and still has a fighting chance for a No. 1 seed. While it may have been unheard of a few weeks ago, but the Broncos can actually miss the playoffs. That means this game means even more to Denver which can clinch a playoff berth with a win but would fall behind the Chiefs and Jets to No. 6 with a loss. Denver could finish anywhere from the top seed at 12-4 to out of the playoffs if the Steelers also finish 10-6 which is very possible as they play Cleveland next week. After three consecutive victories, the Broncos have dropped two straight despite winning the yardage battle in both. As a matter of fact, Denver has won the yardage battle in all five games quarterback Brock Osweiler has started. The Bengals won in San Francisco last Sunday and heading out west again puts them in a tough spot. This will be the first real test for quarterback A.J. McCarron who was solid against the 49ers, ranked last in ypa, but now faces a Broncos defense ranked first in that category. Denver falls into a great situation where we play on favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 coming off a road loss. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Denver is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss. 10* (132) Denver Broncos |
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12-27-15 | Packers +4.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 8-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the PACKERS for our Sunday Star Attraction. The Cardinals are still in position to claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC but they need to win out while the Panthers would have to lose their final two games. Still, Arizona has clinched the division and can clinch a first round bye with a win here but Green Bay is not going to just roll over. The Packers have won three straight games to overtake the Vikings in the NFC North by a game and have clinched a playoff spot no matter what happens the rest of the season. The Packers still have a shot at a first round bye and they obviously have to win here to keep the hope alive going into Week 17. It's no surprise that the Cardinals have one of the best rushing defenses in the league, but their passing defense has been at the middle of the pack. Last week, the Cardinals defense suffered a huge blow when they lost safety Tyrann Mathieu for the season to a torn ACL. That is a big edge for Green Bay which has to tale advantage of the Arizona secondary. The passing game is part of a solid situation for Green Bay as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are averaging between 5.9 and 6.7 ypa going up against teams allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 ypa, after allowing 5.5 or less ypa in two straight games. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Packers are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Cardinals have failed to cover their last four games against winning teams. 10* (125) Green Bay Packers |
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12-27-15 | Browns +11 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the BROWNS for our NFL Game of the week. Kansas City is the first team in NFL history to lose five games in a row and then go on an eight-game winning streak and as impressive as that sounds, I am far from sold. The Chiefs have been outgained in three of their last four games including getting out-totaled last week in Baltimore by 89 yards despite a 20-point win. Turnovers have been the difference and those are nearly impossible to handicap and the turnover differentials puts Kansas City into a negative situation as explained later. Cleveland is coming off a blowout loss at Seattle last week but it was in a no win situation there as the Seahawks are starting to peak while the Browns were coming off three straight home games. The Chiefs have been double-digit home favorites twice this season and they failed to cover both times, losing one outright against the Bears. The turnover situation as mentioned is to play on road underdogs or pickems after two consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. This situation is 69-33 ATS (67.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Cleveland is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse while going 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (117) Cleveland Browns |
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12-27-15 | Panthers v. Falcons +7 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the FALCONS for our Sunday Enforcer. As the public loads up on Carolina, we will gladly go against the Panthers again this week as they are in a situation that playing against undefeated teams this late in the season has performed exceptional. We played against Carolina last week and we were rewarded by a Giants massive comeback and late cover which was the second straight road game the Panthers won by just a field goal. While a win clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the game is just as big for the Falcons, if not bigger. While the chances are slim, Atlanta is still alive for the second Wild Card spot in the NFC but it does need help along the way. The Falcons snapped a six-game losing streak with a win last week against Jacksonville. Four of those losses came by four points or fewer so the streak was arguably skewed. The good news is that this is an early game and the team they are chasing, the Vikings, do not play until Sunday night. This is a big revenge game as well for Atlanta which got hammered at Carolina just two weeks ago 38-0. Teams that are undefeated after 13 or more games have covered just once in 13 games going back close to 40 year. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 6.0 or more yppl in two consecutive games while the Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (110) Atlanta Falcons |
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12-27-15 | Patriots v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the JETS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Do the Patriots really deserve to be favored here? Records will say yes as will the public backing but the fact of the matter is that the Jets are arguably just as good as New England at this stage of the season. New York has won four straight games to move up in the playoff standings and on the season, it is outgaining opponents by close to 50 ypg. The Patriots meanwhile are outgaining opponents by 67.6 ypg which is not far off from the Jets. New England is a win away from clinching the top spot in the AFC which is surely a big deal but the Jets are fighting for a playoff spot as they are currently on the outside looking in. That is a tough pill to swallow considering the Jets have won four straight games but slipped from the AFC's sixth seed down to its seventh on account of Pittsburgh's triumph over Denver, which gave the Steelers a tie-breaking superior record against common opponents. New England has a negative situation on its side as we play against road favorites that are averaging 27 or more ppg, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1983. New England is 0-6 ATS in it last six games after allowing 16 points or fewer in its last game while the Jets have covered four of their last five games against winning teams. 10* (122) New York Jets |
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12-27-15 | Steelers v. Ravens +10.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the RAVENS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Steelers are surging as they have overtaken the Jets in the AFC Wild Card race thanks to a win over Denver last week. Pittsburgh has now won three straight games and the offense continues to pile up the points as it has scored 30 or more points in six straight games, five of which resulted in victories. But with that comes a price to pay as the Steelers are now massive road favorites over their biggest rival and it is definitely an overadjustment. Baltimore has been out of the playoff picture for a while now and are banged up all over the place but if there is one game it wants to win, this is certainly the one. This is the Ravens Super Bowl and they would like nothing more than to squash the Steelers playoff hopes. Despite losses in four of six games, the Ravens have won the yardage battle four times including in three of those losses and they have a shot to win the stats again this week. With nothing to lose, the Ravens should take plenty of shots deep with Kamar Aiken and Chris Givens regardless of who is playing quarterback. Here, we play against teams in the second half of the season that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 55-28 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (130) Baltimore Ravens |
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12-26-15 | Redskins v. Eagles -3 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
We waited on this game for a few reasons, the most important being waiting for a line move but unfortunately that did not come. However, that actually bodes well in this case as while we are not seeing a reverse line move, we are seeing no line movement despite the Redskins getting pounded the public. This is an elimination game for Philadelphia as a loss means it is done while a win means that it is back into a first place tie in the NFC East and then control its own destiny. If the Redskins lose Saturday, they can still make the playoffs by beating the Cowboys next week at AT&T Stadium but would need the Eagles to lose to the Giants as well. The Redskins have won two straight games, the first time all season they have won consecutive games and one of those came at home where they finished 6-2 but are just 1-5 on the highway. The Eagles home field edge has not been great this season for sure but they fall into a great situation where we play on home teams in a game involving two teams averaging between 335 and 370 ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 49-28 ATS (63.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Washington is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game while Philadelphia is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games after allowing 35 points or more last game. 10* (104) Philadelphia Eagles |
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12-24-15 | Chargers +6 v. Raiders | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
Two teams out of playoff contention square off in a divisional matchup Thursday as San Diego heads to Oakland following an emotion win in what could have been its last game in the city of San Diego. Normally, that could spell a letdown but in this case, the Chargers have momentum in a game they want to win. Oakland took the first meeting in San Diego despite the Chargers winning the yardage battle and yet they are getting disadvantaged with this line. Divisional games that have two fairly equal teams playing tend to be a pickem game on a neutral field so the home team is typically a favorite by a field goal but the Raiders are well above that for no apparent reason. Despite a 4-10 record, the Chargers are actually outgaining opponents by an average of 20 ypg as they have suffered close losses and other losses where they have outgained their opponent. The Chargers have covered four straight road games while the Raiders have covered just once in their last five home games and we have a situation on our side where we play on road underdogs or pickems after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (101) San Diego Chargers |
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12-21-15 | Lions v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 35-27 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Unfortunately for the Saints, their playoff hopes were closed yesterday with wins by the Vikings and Seahawks so while the motivation may not be as high as normal, playing at home keeps us on their side. New Orleans is 3-3 at home with one loss coming against undefeated Carolina by a field goal in its last home game and another coming against Tennessee in overtime. The Saints have thrived in these situations as they have covered six of their last eight Monday night games. The Lions had a three-game winning streak to end the month of November to slightly get back into the playoff picture but they have dropped their last two games, the first being the Hail Mary defeat to the Packers and that has completely deflated them. That certainly helps the New Orleans being officially eliminated from the playoffs. The Lions are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 road games against teams with a losing home record. Here, we play against Monday night road teams with a winning percentage of .650 or worse that are coming off a loss as a favorite of a touchdown or more going up against teams coming off a win in non-divisional games. This situation is 17-3 ATS (85 percent) since 1990. And speaking of Monday nights, there is another fantastic situation on the New Orleans side as we play on favorites that are coming off a win by seven points or less over a division rival, when playing on Monday night. This situation is 22-5 ATS (81.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (332) New Orleans Saints |
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12-20-15 | Cardinals v. Eagles +3.5 | Top | 40-17 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 12 m | Show |
This game was moved to primetime with the flex schedule and that greatly benefits the Eagles. Left for dead after a blowout loss on Thanksgiving, Philadelphia has won two straight games and while far from dominating, this team needed a boost of confidence. The Eagles are tied with the Redskins and Giants in the NFC East so there is still plenty to lay for. Arizona has been playing well all season and is currently riding a seven-game winning streak. The Cardinals have already clinched a playoff spot and can clinch the NFC West with a victory but it will not come easy here. They defeated the Eagles at home last season but were outgained by 121 yards as Philadelphia racked up 521 yards of offense. While there has been talk about how Sam Bradford does not fit well into this offense but it needs to be noted that the Eagles are 6-2 in games he's started and finished. He will be facing a Cardinals defense that blitzes the most in the league but he has a very quick release and has been sacked only once this season when seeing a blitz. The Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 29 or more ppg while the Cardinals are 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. 10* (318) Philadelphia Eagles |
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12-20-15 | Broncos +7 v. Steelers | Top | 27-34 | Push | 0 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the Denver Broncos for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Broncos are coming off their first loss with Brock Osweiler after winning his first three starts. The offense has been average at time but despite the loss last week, they outgained Oakland by 184 total yards as the offense generated 310 yards but the defense has been the story which has been the case all season. Denver allowed just 126 yards last week and for the season, the Broncos are allowing an average of 272.5 ypg, by far the best in the league while allowing 17.3 ppg, also tops in the NFL. The Steelers are allowing nearly 100 yards more per game even though the point total has been solid. Overall, these teams are relatively equal which makes this spread too high with a lot of that due to the fact of Pittsburgh defeating Cincinnati last week by 13 points but was outgained by the Bengals. The Broncos fall into a great situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Going back, the Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss while the Steelers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (327) Denver Broncos |
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12-20-15 | Falcons +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 94 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the Atlanta Falcons for our NFL Game of the Year. It has been quite the tumble for Atlanta which has lost six straight games after a 5-1 start. Obviously last week was the worst of the bunch as they fell 38-0 to Carolina, the best team in the NFL and prior to that, four of the previous five losses were by four points or less. Losing is losing and there should be no excuses but at 6-7, the Falcons are still not out of the playoff picture although it is bleak which makes this a must win game. Jacksonville has been favored in each of its last four true home games (not counting Buffalo in London) and it split those. The Jaguars destroyed the Colts last week but they were cooked after Matt Hasselbeck went down. They are now just a game out of the AFC South so this is a big game for them as well. This, this is not a favorable spot and they are overvalued. Atlanta has dropped nine straight games against the number which makes this a huge contrarian value play. Atlanta falls into a simple yet phenomenal situation where we play on road teams after five or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a losing record. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Atlanta is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games coming off a road loss by 21 or more points while Jacksonville is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games against NFC opponents. 10* (307) Atlanta Falcons |
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12-20-15 | Panthers v. Giants +4.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 50 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the New York Giants for our Sunday Enforcer. We played against Carolina two games ago as it failed to cover but snuck out a win at New Orleans. The Panthers bounced back last week to get back to dominating as they defeated Atlanta 38-0 in a game that was over before it started. They face another road test this week against the Giants which are fighting for a divisional title following a win over Miami on Monday night. We won with the Giants then and this is a much better team than the record shows. As mentioned last week, close losses have been the story all season as an incredible statistic shows that if games were only 58:45 long, the Giants would be 11-2 this year. For an NFL record, they have given up five fourth quarter leads in the final two minutes. That tells a lot. While Carolina is the best team in the NFL, the Giants cannot be discounted here as they are getting a ton of value as they are catching the same number of points that the Saints did at home and New York is the better team. Here, we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing nine points or less last game. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (320) New York Giants |
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12-19-15 | Jets v. Cowboys +3.5 | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
We waited on this game hoping to get a line move our way but that likely will not happen until later in the day toward gametime. The Jets are a huge public consensus play this week and while the line has moved slightly, it has not moved as much as expected and that is actually working in our favor as New York will get loaded up even more. The Jets are fighting for a playoff position at 8-5 following three straight victories but now comes in as a road favorite for the fourth consecutive time. Two of those games resulted in losses while the third should have been a loss against the Giants. The first road win over the Colts was solid but they won the yardage battle by just one yard and the other road win was a win in London over the Dolphins. Despite a 4-9 record, Dallas is getting outgained by just nine ypg on the season and a few bounces its way, the record could be better. The Cowboys blew a big lead against Atlanta early in the season, lost two games in overtime while losing three other games by a single possession. Dallas falls into a great situation where we play against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing 9 points or less last game. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) since 1983. The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record while the Cowboys are 33-17 ATS in their last 50 games after a loss by 14 or more points. 10* (304) Dallas Cowboys |
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12-14-15 | Giants -1.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
With Philadelphia and Washington both winning Sunday, the Giants can ill-afford a loss to fall a game back and with a brutal upcoming schedule, this has become a must win contest. New York has dropped three straight games by a combined 10 points and the close losses have been the story all season as an incredible statistic shows that if games were only 58:45 long, the Giants would be 10-2 this year. For an NFL record, they have given up five fourth quarter leads in the final two minutes. Miami is coming off an ugly win against Baltimore and while it has gone 4-4 over its last eight games, it has been outgained in six straight games by an average of 124.5 ypg. The Dolphins are just 2-3 at home so the home field edge is very small and their 0-2 ATS record as home underdogs and their 1-7 ATS record in their last eight home games overall show what little fight there is. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and they fall into an excellent situation as we play on road teams in the second half of the season that possess a losing record where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost three out of their last four games. This situation is 105-62 ATS (62.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (133) New York Giants |
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12-13-15 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 77 h 46 m | Show |
Not that long ago, the Patriots were on track to make another run at an undefeated season but injuries started taking their toll and now at 10-2, New England is in trouble by many. This team is just fine despite two straight losses and honestly, the Patriots could still be 12-0. They lost in overtime on a pretty bad call against the Broncos and then last week they outgained the Eagles by 179 total yards and lost because of two special teams touchdowns and a pick six. New England has not lost three straight games since 2002 as it is a perfect 4-0 since then following consecutive losses. Houston is making a run at the AFC South as it is tied with the Colts at 6-6 as it ran off a four-game winning streak prior to losing in Buffalo last week. The Texans had solid wins over Cincinnati and New York but they are not going to be sneaking up on anyone, especially a team with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady that have lost two straight games. Injuries have no doubt hurt New England on offense but last week actually helped them going forward and now with two weeks of preparation, this is where New England can be at its best. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games. This situation is 58-24 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (125) New England Patriots |
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12-13-15 | Raiders +8.5 v. Broncos | Top | 15-12 | Win | 100 | 72 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on OAKLAND for our Sunday Enforcer. The Raiders lost a tough one last week but it was clearly their own fault. Oakland was ahead by six points in the fourth quarter and driving to take a two possession lead but Derek Carr was intercepted that led to a Chiefs touchdown, threw another interception that led to another touchdown and then tossed a pick six. They outgained the Chiefs by 129 total yards and it was the second straight game where they won the yardage battle by a big margin. Oakland is now 5-7 and the playoffs are looking dim but there will be no quit against their rival in this one. Denver is 3-0 with Brock Osweiler under center and he is doing just enough to win as he has tallied 17 points twice while getting a fortunate break against the Patriots that led to 13 late points so it could have been another 17 points scored. The Broncos do look better as they are more balanced but the fact of the matter is that they are averaging just over 22 ppg and are being asked to lay an overpriced number. Part of the reason is that Oakland hasn't covered in this series since September, 2011 which is a span of nine games. That changes this week as the Raiders are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games revenging a loss where they scored 14 or fewer points while going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (127) Oakland Raiders |
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12-13-15 | Lions v. Rams +2.5 | Top | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 69 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on ST. LOUIS for our NFL Game of the Week. Here we have two teams with the same record but it is the road team that is the favorite and that should not be the case. Granted, the recent results differ but this is an awful situation for Detroit. The Lions won their third straight game with a rout over Philadelphia on Thanksgiving Day and it should have been four wins if not for a Green Bay successful Hail Mary last Thursday night. Coming off a loss like that is tough to bounce back from and Detroit was actually thinking a 9-7 record could be a possibility to make the playoffs but that is now shot. Lastly, teams coming off three straight home games and are then favored on the road have been horrible. St. Louis has lost five straight but two of those were by three points, both on the road. And the last two losses have come against Cincinnati and Arizona which are a combined 20-4. The Rams are 3-3 at home and they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. Not many teams have been worse this time of year as the Lions are 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games in December. The Rams fall into a solid situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems in a game involving two teams that are +/- 0.4 yppl, after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 1983. The Rams snap their skid this week. 10* (116) St. Louis Rams |
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12-13-15 | Chargers +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 69 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on SAN DIEGO for out Sunday Ultimate Underdog. This line is a complete overreaction to what was witnessed last week on the scoreboard. The Chiefs easily defeated the Raiders 34-20 but looking deeper, it was far from easy. Oakland was ahead by six points in the fourth quarter and driving to take a two possession lead but Derek Carr was intercepted that led to a Chiefs touchdown, threw another interception that led to another touchdown and then tossed a pick six. Kansas City was outgained by 129 yards and on the season, the Chiefs are getting outgained by four ypg. San Diego lost by 14 points against Denver but was outgained by just 21 yards and despite being 3-9, the Chargers are outgaining opponents by 10 yards per game. They have been much more efficient on the road as has quarterback Philip Rivers as in his previous three road games, Rivers has thrown for 1,104 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions. So because of the scores from last week, the Chiefs are now a double-digit favorite over San Diego. In addition to that, Kansas City has won and covered six straight games which is also adding to the overadjustment. The Chargers will be out for revenge from the first loss this season and they fall into a great situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 and playing a team with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (117) San Diego Chargers |
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12-10-15 | Vikings v. Cardinals -7.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
This is a big number to lay down but Arizona has been incredible at home and I expect that to continue. The Cardinals are coming off a stretch of four road games in a five-game stretch and they won them all including a solid win at Seattle to make it six straight wins overall. While the road has been very kind to Minnesota, it does not include a quality win. Atlanta is in a swoon, Oakland is improved but average, and Chicago and Detroit are both poor. Two games separate these teams but the yardage differentials tell a different story. The Vikings are actually getting outgained on the season by 26.8 ypg while Arizona is outgaining opponents by 102.7 ypg and that is a significant variance between the two teams. The Vikings defense was exposed last week against Seattle and that should continue here as the unit is extremely banged up. They are especially thinned out at safety, where Harrison Smith (questionable), Andrew Sendejo (questionable) and Antone Exum (placed on IR) are ailing. Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer ranks first in the NFC in multiple stat categories, including passing yards (3,693), passing TDs (29) and passer rating (106.3). Head coach Bruce Arians is 18-7 ATS against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl. 10* (102) Arizona Cardinals |
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12-06-15 | Panthers v. Saints +7 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on NEW ORLEANS for our NFL Game of the Month. With New England's loss last weekend, Carolina is now the lone remaining undefeated team in the NFL and that comes with a price as we can see here. Being favored on the road is one thing but being favored by a touchdown over a divisional rival is another thing. New Orleans has dropped three straight games and has fallen out of the playoff picture but a win here to ruin the Panthers perfect season would be huge for them. In addition to the straight up runs, Carolina has covered four straight games while New Orleans has failed to cover those last three and that is also playing into this number. Going back, the Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning road record while going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall against winning teams. New Orleans falls into a fantastic situation as well as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are being outscored by opponents by four or more ppg, after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 38-15 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (362) New Orleans Saints |
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12-06-15 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on OAKLAND for our Sunday Enforcer. Kansas City was left for dead after a 15 start but the Chiefs have run off five straight wins to get right back in the playoff hunt. Last week, they took out a very improved Buffalo team but the weather played a role as the Bills actually won the yardage battle. Kansas City has also covered the last five games. Oakland meanwhile is coming off a road win last week at Tennessee thanks to a phantom penalty but the Raiders deserved to win as they outgained the Titans by 158 total yards. That snapped a three-game slide and Oakland is still alive in the Wild Card race. Four of their losses have come by six points or less so things could actually be even better for one of the most improved teams in the league. Kansas City is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 road games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg in the second half of the season and it falls into a negative situation. Here, we play against teams in the second half of the season that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27, after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 54-24 ATS (69.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (374) Oakland Raiders |
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12-06-15 | Broncos v. Chargers +4.5 | Top | 17-3 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on SAN DIEGO for our Sunday Star Attraction. San Diego picked up a much needed victory last week at Jacksonville and while it won't get any style points for it, it was necessary for the psyche of the team. The Chargers had lost six straight games prior to that and now they will be out for their first winning streak of the season against a hated divisional rival. They have dropped four straight at home and while the San Diego home field edge is pretty minute, they are catching Denver at the perfect time. The Broncos are coming off a big come-from-behind victory against New England last week in overtime so this is the perfect opportunity for a letdown even though this is a divisional game. Those types of wins are tough to recover from and that will be the case again here. The Chargers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record. Denver falls into a negative situation where we play against favorites that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (372) San Diego Chargers |
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12-06-15 | Ravens v. Dolphins -3.5 | Top | 13-15 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on MIAMI for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. It has been a very inconsistent season for Miami as it has dropped four of its last five games following a two-game winning streak to start the tenure of head coach Dan Carpenter. All four of the recent losses came against teams still alive for the playoffs so it has been a very difficult stretch of games. Baltimore has flat out been a mess all season even though it is coming off a win last week against Cleveland on a walk-off blocked field goal for a touchdown. That will be a tough game to recover from knowing there is no hope for the playoffs and playing without their top quarterback, top running back and top wide receiver. The Ravens are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while going 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Additionally, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 51-22 ATS (69.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (360) Miami Dolphins |
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12-06-15 | Falcons +1 v. Bucs | Top | 19-23 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on ATLANTA for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The term "must win game" is thrown around a lot this time of year and Atlanta finds itself directly in that situation. The Falcons have lost four straight and five of their last six games after a 5-0 start and a lot of the issues have been simply bad luck. Three of the losses have been by three points or less including a home overtime loss to these Buccaneers so they would like nothing more than to return the favor. Tampa Bay lost at Indianapolis last week to fall to 5-6 and while this is considered a must win for them as well, getting to the playoffs with six losses already likely will not happen. Atlanta is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following four or more consecutive losses while Tampa Bay is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 375 or more ypg. Additionally, we play on road teams in the second half of the season after five or more consecutive losses against the spread. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Falcons break their skid here. 10* (367) Atlanta Falcons |
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11-29-15 | Patriots v. Broncos +3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 23 m | Show |
While it was far from dominating, the Broncos showed they can win without Peyton Manning as Brock Osweiler was very impressive in his first career start. He was 20-27 for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns and while he will face a much tougher defense this week, the fact he got that first start out of the way can be considered bigger. The Denver defense is the reason it is 8-2 as Manning has been a shell of his former self and that defense has a chance to keep the Patriots grounded as they continue to deal with a load of injuries. Give New England credit for doing what it is doing with a huge injury list but this will be a big road test for sure. The schedule has been very favorable of late for the Patriots as four of their last five games have been at home and the lone road game could have and arguably should have resulted in a loss to the Giants. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better that are coming off a win against a division rival. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Denver is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg. Look for the Broncos to put an end to the Patriots undefeated season. 10* (274) Denver Broncos |
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11-29-15 | Giants -2.5 v. Redskins | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the NY GIANTS for our NFL Game of the Week. With what took place over Thanksgiving, this has turned into a monumental game for the Giants. Philadelphia got crushed again while Dallas lost Tony Romo for the rest of the season so a victory here puts them two games clear of the Eagles and Redskins and it becomes their division to lose. New York is the clear cut favorite right now and having a two-game lead with five games left, including only one divisional game, would be huge. Washington got blown out for the third time in five games last week and while it returns home with a 4-1 record, this is not the worst time to face the Giants to try and break their five-game skid against them. The Redskins have gone 2-4 in their last six games and the numbers have been worse as they have been outgained by at least 124 yards in five of those. The Giants fall into a great spot where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-12 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Giants are 34-13 ATS in their last 47 road games after two or more consecutive wins against the spread while the Redskins are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss of more than 14 points. 10* (259) New York Giants |
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11-29-15 | Vikings v. Falcons | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on ATLANTA for our Sunday Enforcer. The Vikings had a great run going where they had won five straight games but then ran into a buzzsaw last Sunday at home against the Packers. The defense allowed its highest point total of the season and things won't get any easier here against a desperate Falcons team. Minnesota has won three straight games on the road but none of those were against teams with a winning record. After opening the season 5-0, the Flacons have dropped four of their last five games including three straight to fall out of the NFC South Division race. Despite those four losses in five games, Atlanta has outgained the opponent in four of those games with the lone negative differential being just -16 yards. The Falcons have lost their last two home games but both were by just three points against two .500 teams. Despite being just a game worse than Minnesota, this line is much shorter than it should be as the Falcons are not getting much credit for home field. A big reason is the recent successful Minnesota ATS run while Atlanta has failed to cover in six straight games. A win here likely means a cover and we will grab the Falcons in what is definitely considered a must win to remain in the playoff hunt. 10* (254) Atlanta Falcons |
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11-29-15 | Bills +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on BUFFALO for ur Sunday ultimate Underdog. The Bills lost a tough game against New England Monday night as they were outgained by just 37 total yards and actually held New England to season lows in both yards and points. At 5-5, Buffalo is tied with three other teams for the second AFC Wild Card spot and while a loss would not knock them too far out, a win would be huge. And we aren't even asking the Bills to win, although an outright win would not be surprising, as they are catching a number that is inflated because of the Chiefs recent run. Kansas City is one of those 5-5 teams and the reason the line is so big is due to their four-game winning streak, all coming by at least 10 points. In their most recent home game, they were favored by a field goal over the 4-7 Lions and are now at least double that now against a much better team. The defense has risen to the occasion but Buffalo has a big play offense that was shut down last week as quarterback Tyrod Taylor was far from 100 percent. He is fine now though and going back, the Bills are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. They also fall into a simple yet effective situation where we play on road teams off a road loss, in November games. This situation is 76-35 ATS (68.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (263) Buffalo Bills |
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11-26-15 | Bears v. Packers -8.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 17 m | Show |
We won with the Packers this past Sunday against the Vikings and while it was not a thing of beauty, a win is a win and it was a much needed victory to stop the bleeding of a three-game losing streak. Now Green Bay will be out to avoid losing two straight games at home which has happened only once since 2009 and it needs to be pointed out that Aaron Rodgers did not play as he was injured. Rodgers has not lost two straight home games since 2008, his first year as the Packers starting quarterback. Chicago lost a tough game to the Broncos on a failed two-point conversion which snapped a two-game winning streak and now the Bears have to hit the road on short rest. Surprisingly, the defense has played at a high level of late, allowing 19, 13 and 17 points the last three weeks but now comes the biggest test of the bunch. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This situation is 44-17 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1983. Chicago is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after having won two out of their last three games while Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in its last six games coming off a road win. While this is considered a big rivalry, the Packers have won 12 of the lat 14 meetings and they keep it rolling here with another big victory. 10* (110) Green Bay Packers |
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11-26-15 | Panthers v. Cowboys | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -102 | 73 h 17 m | Show |
After just a couple series, you could see the difference with Tony Romo in at quarterback with the Cowboys and they are far from out of it in the NFC East. He finished with two interceptions and had an average 83.7 quarterback rating but it was his first game after missing seven games and it is obvious he gives the Cowboys a chance to win every week. Speaking of winning every week, that is what Carolina has done all season. Winning is most important but it is hard to ignore the fact that the Panthers have played the easiest schedule in the NFL. Four of their last five games have been at home with the lone road game coming at lowly Tennessee. There is a very interesting comparison between these two teams as the Panthers have not lost a regular season game since Week 13 of the 2014 NFL Season, a span of 14 straight games. Just like the Cowboys, they had gone winless in the seven previous games before starting their streak. Dallas has won seven straight regular season games with Romo under center and going back to the start of last season, the Cowboys are 15-3 in their last 18 regular season game when Romo starts. The Panthers are just the second team in NFL history to start 10-0 and open its next game as an underdog and that is a big reason Carolina is already getting over three-quarters of the action early in the week. Going back, Dallas is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 home games after having lost three out of their last four games. 10* (108) Dallas Cowboys |
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11-26-15 | Eagles v. Lions | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 18 m | Show |
The Lions have won two straight games and bring some momentum in Thanksgiving Day. While their season is long gone, it is pretty clear they are out to win still and while the offense has been below average the last four games, they catch the Eagles at the perfect time. Or in my opinion, the wrong time. Philadelphia is in real trouble following a bad home loss to the Buccaneers, its second straight loss, but the NFC East is still wide open and there is time for the Eagles to recover. While Mark Sanchez had an up and down game, Matt Stafford has been average pretty much all season. Here are some surprising numbers. Both entered Sunday with 37 wins, but Sanchez had an 86.6 passer rating compared with Stafford's 83.7 rating. Stafford is in 0-2 in the playoffs and Sanchez is 4-2, including two trips to the AFC championship. Yesterday's loss notwithstanding, there have been some bad breaks along the way for the Eagles and after an embarrassing loss to one of the worst teams in the NFL over the last decade, that is the time players step up. Philadelphia falls into a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 gamers after allowing 40 or more points while the Lions are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following two or more consecutive wins. 10* (105) Philadelphia Eagles |
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11-23-15 | Bills +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The Bills picked up a much needed win last Thursday over the Jets to get back over .500 for the first time since Week Five but most are not giving them a chance to stay there very long. New England is 9-0 and continues to seemingly run on cruise control although they were given a gift last week against the Giants. Injuries continue to be a problem though and they keep getting worse as the Patriots are without Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis as well as battling injuries on the offensive line. These are huge blows offensively and we can look back at the first meeting and what their absences mean. Lewis (138) and Edelman (109) accounted for 247 of New England's 507 total yards (48.7 percent) and scored three touchdowns. The Bills are healthy on offense and can keep up in this one against a New England defense that has looked good at times but it very average. The Bills rank sixth in the NFL, averaging 25.7 ppg which is on pace to be their highest season total since 1991 (28.6 ppg). Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has thrown a touchdown pass in all seven of his games this season and he is the only quarterback completing better than 70 percent of his throws. LeSean McCoy is at full strength and on the season, Buffalo is averaging 3.1 yards before contact per rush, which is second in the NFL behind the Steelers (3.2). Buffalo has two awesome situations on its side. First, we play against home teams that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 335 and 370 ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on road underdogs after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (475) Buffalo Bills |
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11-22-15 | Bengals v. Cardinals -5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -104 | 55 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on ARIZONA for our Sunday night Primetime. Trying to figure out which Bengals team is true, the one that went 8-0 or the one we saw last week, is a difficult task. I think they are a little in-between as they certainly are not as bad as they were last week but they are not as good as their first eight-game record indicated. Now things get extremely tough as Cincinnati head to Arizona to face one of the best teams in the league. They have played only two teams that currently possess a winning record and this is the best one yet. Arizona is 7-2 and last week was a great indication of the makeup of this team. The Cardinals blew a 19-0 lead and while most teams would have folded, Arizona fought harder and came away with the win. They have outgained seven of nine opponents, including both losses as turnovers did them in, and overall they have the No. 1 offense and No. 3 defense in the NFL. This is just the second home game in six weeks so this place will be going nuts come Sunday night. Here, we play on home teams coming off an upset win as an underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams with winning percentages at .750 or better. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (470) Arizona Cardinals |