Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-01-23 | Miami-FL v. Connecticut -5.5 | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Miami Hurricanes' first-ever romp into the Final Four, including redemption from last season's Elite Eight loss, has been a great story. The Hurricanes have a terrific backcourt and highly skilled role players that have helped the team average over 80 points per game in the tournament. Unfortunately, the ride ends here. UConn is playing at a level that I haven't seen since the 1990 UNLV Runnin' Rebels stormed through the tournament on the way to the National Championship. The Huskies have an average margin of victory of over 21 points, are shooting the ball at a 50% clip, and hold the opposition to just over 35% shooting. This team can beat you from long range, averaging over 10 made 3pt field goals per game in the tournament, or in the paint, averaging 37.5 points in the paint per game. UConn will turn the ball over on occasion but this Miami team is not built to cause a high number of turnovers, averaging just over 10 forced turnovers per game in the tournament. And, if the Hurricanes start slowly, they will be in major trouble. The average score in the second half of the Huskies' games in the tournament is 46-27. Yes, the Huskies are beating teams by an AVERAGE of nearly 20 points in the second half of their tournament games. UConn will wear Miami down with too much size, too much defensive pressure and just, and just too much. The Huskies will roll into the NCAA Final on Monday night. |
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04-01-23 | Mavs +1.5 v. Heat | 122-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is not in jeopardy of missing the playoffs, like Dallas is, and has several key injury designations heading into this pivotal matchup. Three Heat players, Nikola Jovic (back), Kyle Lowry (knee), and Bam Adebayo (hip), are hurt and questionable to play. Only Frank Ntilikina (knee) is questionable to play for Dallas. The betting trends also suggest the Mavericks are the team to have faith in. The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games playing on two days' rest. Taking all of this into account, including Dallas' dominant showing versus Miami earlier this season, I'll bet on the Mavs. |
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03-31-23 | Nuggets +9.5 v. Suns | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Thursday’s games have been excluded from the analysis, and the 51-24 Denver Nuggets hosted the New Orleans Pelicans, searching for their fifth consecutive victory. Over their previous four showings, the Nuggets have beaten the Brooklyn Nets 108-102, Washington Wizards 118-104, Milwaukee Bucks 129-106, and Philadelphia 76ers 116-111. Last Monday, Nikola Jokic posted a triple-double of 25 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists to lift his team over the 76ers, who missed both Joel Embiid and James Harden. The Nuggets shot 50.6% from the field and posted a terrific 34/12 assist-to-turnover ratio. |
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03-31-23 | Hawks v. Nets | 107-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Hawks have won two of their last three games including a home win against the Cavaliers on Tuesday. The Brooklyn Nets have been hit or miss recently. They have dropped six of their last eight games including disappointing losses against the Kings and Magic. They only covered twice in that eight-game span. The Hawks continue to dazzle offensively, averaging a remarkable 127 points in their last five games. Atlanta is hot from three-point range where they have connected on 38.6% of their threes in their last three games. This is key as the Nets give up plenty of threes, ranking 25th in the NBA in three-point defense. The Nets have not been reliable at home, going 1-4 in their last five home games, covering just once. |
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03-27-23 | Bulls +4.5 v. Clippers | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls have been red hot lately, going 7-2 over their last nine and have gone 4-1 ATS over their last five, and are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games. Chicago is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams and is 4-1 ATS in the five meetings between these teams in Los Angeles. Chicago is playing on back-to-back nights which would seem to give the Clippers a big edge. However, this team is not as good without Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard is battling an injury as well. The Bulls should win this game outright, but look for them to cover the spread regardless. |
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03-27-23 | Suns -6.5 v. Jazz | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Utah Jazz (35-39) and Phoenix Suns (39-35) have a couple of things in common heading into the home stretch of the season. Both teams are still in the thick of it when it comes to the postseason. And both are trying to make do without key players. And like the Suns did Saturday night against Philadelphia, the Jazz come into Monday's matchup in Salt Lake City hoping to break a three-game losing streak. Utah came close to finding a way to win in Sacramento on Saturday despite missing its three leading scorers: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton. Consider that the Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Utah while the Jazz are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. |
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03-26-23 | Avalanche v. Coyotes +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 105 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Colorado is a heavy favorite on Sunday afternoon, but I am not sure the -315 price tag is warranted. Arizona has been a completely different team at home this season, going 20-11-3 and winning each of its last six games. The Coyotes have been a profitable team to back in those games with a 21-13 record against the spread. They are coming off a rough road trip, but they were competitive against the Avalanche before giving up a pair of goals in the third period. This is all about finding value on a team that has drastic home-road splits. |
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03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State +2.5 | 56-57 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Creighton has played better than expected in the tournament, especially offensively. They have shot the lights out in their wins over Baylor and Princeton in their last two contests. One has to think that they will have a tougher time shooting the ball against an Aztecs team that held opposing teams to just 40.8% shooting from the floor this season. Depth is also an issue for the Blue Jays as we’ve seen them get a combined 16 points from their bench in their three tournament games, 14 of which have come from Farabello. If Creighton finds themselves in any kind of foul trouble, it’s going to be tough sledding. We just saw San Diego State upend Alabama in a game where Bradley finished with only six points. Look for him to bounce back and help the Aztecs advance to the Final Four. Consider that the Aztecs are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. |
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03-25-23 | Senators +1.5 v. Devils | 3-5 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Senators have won two of their last three games. They are playing well offensively, scoring 10 goals in their last three games. They’ve also played well on special teams, converting over 24 percent of their power play opportunities. The Devils have done a good job killing penalties and they usually play well defensively, but they struggled in recent games, giving up 10 goals in their last three home games. They are also playing 0n consecutive nights and will be dealing with some fatigue, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Devils in this game. The Devils have lost four of their last five games and four of their last five home games. They have struggled offensively, scoring only five goals in their last three home games. They have played well on special teams, converting over 20 percent of their power play opportunities. Unfortunately for them, the Senators are very good at killing penalties and they’re playing well defensively, giving up five goals in their last three games, so expect them to keep New Jersey’s offense in check. |
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03-25-23 | Canucks +1.5 v. Stars | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Stars are having a great season and look to step up and control this game on their home ice. However, the Canucks have looked great recently, winning eight of their last 10 games, and look to control this game on both ends of the ice. The Canucks, who average 3.35 goals per game, should create plenty of scoring chances with Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes near the net. The Canucks should limit the Stars' offense with Quinn Hughes, Ethan Bear, and the rest of the defensive unit stepping up at the blue line and cutting off angles to the net on the rush while limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Thatcher Demko to make plenty of big saves. The Canucks should win the game. |
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03-25-23 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Flyers | 0-3 | Loss | -210 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia has struggled all season at both ends of the ice and will be without its leading goal scorer and overall leader in points Travis Konecny. Philadelphia struggles in goal, as Carter Hart has a 2.96 goals against average and as a team the Flyers are allowing an average of 3.31 goals per game. Philadelphia has lost 13 of its last 18 and the Flyers have dropped eight of the last 11 played against the team from the Eastern Conference. Besides missing Konecny, Philadelphia will be without Sean Couturier as well as Ryan Ellis and the Flyers have played the most of the season without Cam Atkinson, which means they lack overall attack and cannot keep pace with the number of goals the defense and goalies allow. |
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03-24-23 | Princeton +10 v. Creighton | 75-86 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Blue Jays’ head coach Greg McDermott is only 2-6 SUATS against foes off a win of greater than 4 points in this tourney. Interestingly, double digit favorites in the Sweet 16, favored by the most points in this round, are 18-3 SU, but have covered in only 7 of the 21 contests (7-12-2 ATS), including 0-7 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win. In addition, double-digit dogs in Sweet 16 games are 15-6 ATS since 1999, including 11-1 ATS when coming off a SU underdog win (10-0 ATS versus sub .880 foes). In fact, teams off a pair of upset wins in the first two rounds are 14-5 ATS in Sweet 16 rounds dating back to 2011, including 7-0 ATS when taking 8 or more points today. |
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03-24-23 | Rockets v. Grizzlies -13 | 114-151 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is all about identifying value as these teams get set to meet for the second game in a row. Houston covered as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday, so many bettors are going to be surprised that the line is 1.5 points larger on Friday. However, Memphis was playing without Brooks in the first matchup and Morant was playing for the first time in weeks. Brooks will return from his one-game suspension on Friday, and Morant should be in better form after knocking off the rust. The Grizzlies have won 10 straight home games and have won eight of the last nine meetings between these teams. |
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03-24-23 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Houston | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston, it should be noted they struggled mightily against quality opposition this season – read: .750 or greater foes – going just 1-7 ATS. Ironically, each of Sampson’s last five losses in The Big Dance have been against foes of a similar ilk (Villanova last season). Miami is undersized, but the Hurricanes have elite guards and a dynamic small-ball big man in Norchad Omier. He's among a group of four Miami players averaging 13 or more points per game. A three-guard attack, led by ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong, could be a handful, particularly if Houlton’s star G Marcus Sasser is not 100% back from his groin injury |
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03-24-23 | San Diego State v. Alabama -7.5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Play of the Day Rating: 3 Units What has been overlooked this season, is Bama was the No. 20 in the AP preseason poll. Safe to say they have been major overachievers to the point they were awarded the No. 1 overall seed in this year’s tournament. And starting today they own the easiest path to the Final Four with only No. 5, 6 and perhaps 15 seeds in their path. They also bring the best Rebound Margin, and second-best Defensive Field Goal Percentage and Scoring Margins of all teams still remaining in this tournament. San Diego State enters with the second worst Offensive Field Goal Percentage (uh oh). The Aztecs are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2014, and third time overall. Seven players average at least 20.0 minutes per game this season, but only one player averages double-digits in scoring. Ironically. SDSU was No. 19 in the AP preseason Top 25, ahead of Alabama. With MWC teams a shivery 3-31-1 ATS in their last 35 outright losses in this tourney, you know exactly what to do. |
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03-23-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Tennessee -5.5 | 62-55 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units CUSA programs are 0-4 SU in this round of the tournament, losing by an average margin of more than more than 10 PPG. Denting Tennessee’s stifling defense is priority one for the Owls if they hope to advance. The Volunteers rank 3rd in the nation in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (37.2) while allowing opponents to shoot just 26.4% from outside the arc, the lowest mark in college basketball. You can poke holes all you want at coach Barnes and his tawdry 20-31 ATS record in this tournament but he’s only the second coach in school history to make multiple Sweet 16s. In the end the pedigree wins out, as it almost always does at this stage. Lay the points. |
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03-23-23 | Michigan State v. Kansas State +1.5 | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Izzo enters on a 1-6 SUATS run of late against Big 12 opponents, as well as 0-3 SUATS in this tournament against No. 3 or higher seeds when coming off a SU underdog win when his troops sport a sub .666 win percentage. The only bad news for Kansas State? No. 3 seeds in the Sweet 16 round are just 3-14 ATS when taking on .714 or fewer opponents. While Izzo stands 16-12 SU in this event versus higher seeded opposition, he’s just 2-4 SUATS in those same games when his troops own a .676 or less win percentage and are facing No. 3 or greater seeds. The bottom line to us is we love higher seeded dogs like KSU, and higher seeded dogs in this round are 11-6 ATS since 1990, including 8-2 SUATS when taking 2 or fewer points. |
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03-22-23 | Rockets +13 v. Grizzlies | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's hard to feel great about betting on the Rockets, but Houston is playing .500 ball over its last 10 games, and none of the previous four losses have been by more than 13 points. Memphis is a far better team, but Houston has not stopped playing hard, and I expect this to be a bit of a distracting night with Ja Morant back, and Dillion Brooks suspended. The Grizzlies will win this game, but I would not lay more than 10 points on the spread in this spot, regardless of how good they have been at home. Memphis will also face Houston again on Friday, so I would not be shocked to see a letdown here. |
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03-22-23 | UAB -1 v. Vanderbilt | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If previous performances are any indication, UAB should kill the Commodores in rebounding, particularly offensively which will lead to ample second-chance scoring opportunities. It nearly sank Vanderbilt against Michigan, and I think it will this time. The Blazers have a tougher defense than the Commodores and an offense that can keep up with them. Even on the road, I'm expecting UAB to win, and with the spread only at one point, the money line is the best option. |
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03-21-23 | Wisconsin +3 v. Oregon | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This will be a tough matchup for the Ducks, who could be without their top three players. Although it's tough to back a team in that situation, Oregon has been extremely impressive shorthanded through their first NIT wins. As impressive as the Ducks have been, I can see so many different scenarios playing out where the Badgers either win or keep this game within five points. Wisconsin has had some extremely close losses this season, including falling to Kansas by only one point earlier this season. Also, five of the most recent six losses for Wisconsin have either come in overtime or been decided by two points or less during regulation. Oregon is one of those teams that can make you look bad either way as a sports bettor. When the Ducks are on, they are very good, but they also have been inconsistent throughout the season. |
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03-21-23 | Spurs v. Pelicans -13 | 84-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans is in the thick of the playoff race while San Antonio is trying to lose games to try and get the first overall pick and turn their franchise around, which is why I like the Pelicans here to win and cover the large spread. Both New Orleans and the Spurs have struggled against the spread this season but San Antonio is 30-41 ATS which is third worst and as a road underdog, the Spurs are 11-22. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are 12-12 ATS which is much better than their overall ATS record. As well, this season, New Orleans is 3-0 against San Antonio with the average margin of victory being 15.3 PPG. The Pelicans' offense should have a field day against this Spurs defense which is arguably the worst in the NBA. |
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03-20-23 | Warriors -11 v. Rockets | 121-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors come in slumping but the undisciplined Rockets should be just what the doctor ordered for them on Monday night. Golden State should feast on Houston's struggles to cover the perimeter and will be happy to play this game at an uptempo pace thanks to what should be a bevy of turnovers between the two teams. I am confident that the Warriors will see a major bounce-back game from the Splash Brothers on Monday night and pull away quickly from the hapless Rockets. Golden State is 9-1 in the last ten meetings with Houston and, with ten games left on the schedule, this is a must-win for the defending champs. The Rockets are also just 2-9 in the second game of back-to-back games this season. |
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03-20-23 | Wolves v. Knicks -8 | 140-134 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks have been phenomenal lately, and even appear to have solved their issues at home. They've won eight of 10 at home after a 12-14 start in the Mecca. New York has also beaten the spread in their last three. Then there's Minnesota, who has lost ATS in four of six and owns a 15-20 record on the road (16-19-0 ATS). That's without mentioning they may not have Anthony Edwards or Rudy Gobert for this matchup, their top offensive and defensive player. This game is New York's to lose, and with how they've been playing lately, I don't believe they will. Take the Knicks to cover. |
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03-20-23 | Bulls v. 76ers -8.5 | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units How does one bet against Philly at this point, given the run they are on. They have won 8 straight and 9 of their last 10 and are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games. They won their last three games on the road and are returning home for this one, so the appreciative Philly fans should give them an added boost. They then turn around and head out on the road again after this one, and that will be a tough stretch. It starts with Chicago again, at Chicago, and that could be a Philly loss. But for this one on Monday -- they will be happy to be home and they will take care of business. Take the Sixers to cover. |
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03-20-23 | Radford v. San Jose State -6.5 | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spartans have won five of their last six games. They don’t have a high-scoring offense, but they played better in recent games, scoring more than 69 points per game in their last three games. Their rebounding was great during that span and they were very aggressive on the offensive glass, grabbing 12 offensive rebounds per game, so expect them to get a lot of second-chance scoring opportunities., They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Highlanders a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Highlanders usually play well defensively, but they weren’t as efficient in recent games, giving up at least 70 points in two of their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Spartans in this game. The Highlanders have lost four of their last seven games. They have struggled offensively on the road, scoring less than 70 points per game. They’ve struggled at the charity stripe, making less than 70 percent of their free throws. Their ball movement isn’t very good and they don’t rebound the ball as well as the Spartans, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Spartans. The Spartans are very good defensively and they played better in recent games, keeping their last three opponents under 65 points per game, so don’t expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Highlanders in this game. Go with San Jose State to cover the spread. |
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03-20-23 | Eastern Kentucky v. Indiana State -6 | 89-88 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Looking at these teams, the greatest difference between them is on offense. They both play at a high tempo, rebounded well against their conference competition, and know how to stifle opposing offenses. However, Indiana State is typically efficient, hitting almost half of their shots and taking advantage of free throws. Eastern Kentucky is not, only hitting 43.5% of their field goals and missing nearly 35% of their free throws. Expect Indiana State's offense to make the difference in this one when they beat the spread. |
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03-19-23 | TCU +4.5 v. Gonzaga | 81-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units TCU's offense was not their strength this season and had a few lulls on Friday, but overall their performance was impressive considering Arizona State's defense wreaked havoc on a lot of teams this season. That the Horned Frogs hit open threes and free throws could make them very dangerous going forward. Of course, Gonzaga's offense on Grand Canyon, but Grand Canyon's defense was barely 200th in adjusted efficiency this season. TCU's is much tougher at 23rd. Gonzaga's defense isn't great, and Timme's size could pose problems inside for TCU's offense, but I think if they play like Friday the Horned Frogs will take this game. Taking the points is safer though, so I'm going to roll with the spread. |
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03-19-23 | Pittsburgh +5.5 v. Xavier | 73-84 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh is allowing an average of just 50.0 points per game in its first two games of the NCAA tournament as the Panthers' defense has tightened. Pittsburgh held Iowa State to 23% shooting overall and 10% shooting from long range. Xavier is a strong shooting team, hitting 50% of its field goal attempts during a regular season, but against first-round opponent, Kennesaw State shot only 17% from behind the three-point line and cannot afford to shoot poorly against the Panthers. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 23 of its last 30 and in four of the last five against a team with a winning percentage above 600. Xavier struggled down the stretch to cover the spread, failing to cover the spread in four of its last five. In intangibles, Xavier must play without Zach Freemantle, who before being injured was the second-leading scorer and leading rebounder for the Musketeers. Freemantle was also one of the court leaders. |
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03-18-23 | Maryland v. Alabama -8.5 | 51-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Maryland survived a slow start to get past West Virginia but an opening 10 minutes like they had Thursday here could put them in a hole that they would be unable to dig out of against the Crimson Tide. The Terrapins played some stout defense against West Virginia to get through but they were helped by getting the Mountaineers in foul trouble, opening up the interior for easy buckets. Alabama hung 96 on the board with their best player going scoreless while playing just 19 minutes. Granted, Maryland is better defensively than Texas A&M-Corpus Christi but the Crimson Tide have plenty of depth, as evidenced in Thursday’s win. It also helps that they are playing in their home state. Look for that depth to make the difference as Alabama prevails to advance to the Sweet 16. |
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03-18-23 | Penn State +5.5 v. Texas | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I can't turn away from a Penn State team that has thrived in close games down the stretch. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games and have gone 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as the underdog. In addition, Penn State has won six of its last seven games against tournament teams and covered the spread in each game. Further, the veteran Penn State team is not easily rattled and performs well above average in neutral site games. Penn State is 9-1 ATS in its last ten neutral site games. I expect Pickett to protect the basketball and create opportunities for his teammates throughout the game. Texas, which likes to move quickly, will be forced to adjust to Penn State's methodical pace of play and I expect this game to be a one-possession contest heading into the final two minutes. With that in mind, points are critical and I will happily take the 5.5 on the board. |
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03-18-23 | Auburn +5.5 v. Houston | 64-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quite a bit in this contest depends on the health of Sasser and Shead. Sasser was an All-American selection but logging only 14 minutes while scoring five points in the first round was less than what the Cougars were hoping for against the Norse. The Cougars struggled to pull away against Northern Kentucky and one has to wonder if perhaps Sasser did more damage by attempting to play Thursday night. It’s safe to say that Auburn’s offensive production is better than Northern Kentucky’s and will test the Cougars’ defense more than the Norse did. The Tigers can hang on the glass and make things tough for Houston on the offensive end of the floor. Houston may win the game but it’s going to be a war if Sasser is limited or doesn’t play. Take the points and Auburn in what should be a low-scoring affair. |
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03-18-23 | Nuggets v. Knicks +2 | 110-116 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York has been one of the hottest teams in the NBA since the beginning of February, winning and covering the spread in 11 of its last 14 games The Knicks have also covered the spread in six of their last seven home games, despite struggling at Madison Square Garden earlier in the year. They are facing a Denver team that has been trending in the opposite direction, winning once in its last five games and covering once in its last six games. New York could get an additional boost if Brunson returns, so I will back the team with momentum in this matchup. |
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03-17-23 | Florida Atlantic +2 v. Memphis | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 35 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If it’s possible for a 30-win team to fl y under the radar, the Owls are doing just that. So disrespected is FAU, they were actually a 2.5-point dog in the title game of the CUSA tourney when they rolled past UAB, 78-56. They bring a glossy 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS mark into this game when coming of a SU underdog win, including 5-0 SUATS the last fi ve games. In addition, FAU is also 11-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off pointspread wins. Enter the American Athletic Conference tourney champion Tigers, off an upset win over a banged up Houston squad. They’ll likely pay the price today, though, as the WOM notes that NCAA tourney fi rst round chalk is just 12-25-1 ATS since 2000 when coming off a SU win as an underdog in a conference title game. And it doesn’t help Elvis fans knowing Memphis is only 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS against .828 or greater opponents in this tournament. With it, look for the Owls to fl y to 5-0 ATS in their last fi ve meetings against AAC competition tonight. |
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03-17-23 | Grizzlies -8.5 v. Spurs | 126-120 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There are some negatives surrounding both of these teams right now, but I feel much better about backing a Memphis team that is motivated to get back on track. The Grizzlies have won 10 straight meetings between these teams, including six in a row in San Antonio. They had won three straight games prior to their loss against Miami, so they have been playing decent basketball without Morant on the court. Meanwhile, San Antonio has only covered the spread five times in its last 20 games. The Spurs have not only been losing games, but they have not been competitive in most of them. |
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03-17-23 | Drake +2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 56-63 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 16 m | Show |
Tournament Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Miami, the ACC regular season and Drake, the Missouri Valley conference tournament. A trio of 5thyear senior guards leads the Bulldogs’ attack: Tucker Devries, Roman Penn, and Garrett Sturtz returned with their extra year of eligibility after having led Drake to 95-wins the previous four years. The terrific threesome averaged 42.1 PPG, 16.5 RPG, and 8.3 APG. They match up well with a Miami unit that also emphasizes guard play. The Canes bring a wobbly 1-5 ATS record as a favorite in this tournament into this fray as well as a 0-3 ATS mark in its last three Missouri Valley contests. Making matters worse, Miami mentor Jim Larranaga is just 1-5 ATS as a single digit favorite in this tournament. Meanwhile, Drake closed the season on a 13-1 winning run. In addition, they were 4-1 SUATS against .750 or greater opponents this campaign. However, we saved the best for last, where Drake head coach Darian DeVries is 10-2 SUATS “between the 4’s” in games on a neutral court |
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03-17-23 | Providence +4.5 v. Kentucky | 53-61 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Certain games have the look and feel of “upset” written all over them, and this is one. The Wildcats enter fresh off an opening round loss to St. Peter’s last season and are just two years removed from a 9-win season. Wooden Award winner Oscar Tshiebwe leads the nation in rebounding (13.1 RPG) while averaging 16.4 PPG. As talented as they are, or can be, the fact of the matter is Kentucky is 0-7 ATS in its last seven non-SEC battles. Providence bolted out of the gate at 14-3 before closing out 7-8. However, Ed Cooley’s clan made it to the Sweet 16 last season as they cashed all three tickets in the tournament. Cooley is a long-term 104-74-4 ATS as a dog, including 19-7 ATS of late. |
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03-17-23 | 76ers -10.5 v. Hornets | 121-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I don't expect the Sixers to take a night off at this point, with the team so close to the second spot in the Eastern Conference standings. The two teams have split the previous two meetings this season but haven't squared off since December. Both teams have gone through changes since then and the Sixers are now arguably the hottest team in the NBA. Charlotte will not have any answers for Embiid and he should dominate this matchup. Additionally, I expect the Sixers to exploit Charlotte's mediocre perimeter defense with the league's best 3pt shooting. Charlotte is positioning for the most ping-pong balls in the draft lottery while the Sixers are trying to earn home-court advantage in the playoffs. |
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03-17-23 | Hurricanes +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | 2-5 | Loss | -235 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The offense has been great but the defense has carried the Hurricanes, allowing only 2.52 goals per game. Brent Burns and Brett Pesce have combined for 9.4 defensive point shares and 163 blocked shots while Brady Skjei, Jaccob Slavin, and Jalen Chatfield have combined for 12.3 defensive point shares to add depth to the unit. The hope is that goaltender Frederik Andersen can improve as he has a .903 save percentage and a 2.41 goals-against average on 599 shots with -0.9 goals saved above average. |
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03-17-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Purdue -22.5 | 63-58 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Boilermakers, it’s the first time as a No. 1 seed since 1996. They’ll enter the Big Dance this year seeking their fi rst Final Four appearance since 1980. The Boilermakers have advanced past the Sweet 16 just once in six previous trips as a top-2 seed. They have, however, made the Sweet 16 or better in four of the past five tournaments, but have been eliminated by No. 15 and 13 seeds the past two years. The good new is they are 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS in NCAA tourney openers under Matt Painter, which should comfortably get them underway against either of the two slop buckets advancing for the “First Four” round. |
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03-17-23 | NC State +5.5 v. Creighton | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 2 m | Show |
Tournament Play of the Day There is a large contingent of Vegas wise guys who like this Creighton team, and it’s understandable.After all, the Blue Jays were ranked No. 9 in the AP preseason poll after winning 23 games the previous season despite being beaten up with injuries. The truth of the matter is unless they win two games in this event and make it to the Sweet 16, they will fall short of last year’s effort. That’s the plight we see happening, and with it, we’re not about to lay points with a team under this sort of scrutiny. For openers, Creighton enters with a crummy 7-13 SU and 5-14- 1 ATS record in this tournament since the turn of the century, including 0-4 ATS when coming off a loss as a favorite. On the fl ip side, NC State enters with a sparking 8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS record this season in games when coming off a loss, including 7-0 ATS the last seven games. In addition, the Pack is 4-1 SUATS in this tourney when entering off a loss when they sport a greater than .666 win percentage. We’re backing the team playing the better ball as playing on any .666 or greater lined Division-1 team in Round One of the NCAA tournament coming off a loss of 24 or more points if they are facing a sub .740 lined Division-1 foe is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1990 |
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03-17-23 | UC-Santa Barbara +10.5 v. Baylor | 56-74 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Like Kansas State above, no team has ever won a national championship after losing its fi rst game in the conference tournament. That’s bad news for the Bears, whose season was laced with ups and downs. A 10-2 start was met with a 3-game losing skid. Then a 10-1 winning run was met with a pair of losses, only to close the season out with another pair of defeats. The question is can Scott Drew’s capable band of Bears fi nd another winning streak to close out the season? A cause for concern was that Baylor was outrebounded, 43-15, in its conference tourney loss to Iowa State. If that’s not addressed they could be going into early hibernation. Yes, they’re on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS run in this tournament, but all of those games came as a No. 1 seed. On the other side of the coin, the Gauchos have turned into an ATM machine, cashing 19 of their final 27 games, while riding a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS streak into this contest. While they’ve lost all four of their NCAA appearances, they managed to ring the register in those games, going 3-1 ATS. |
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03-16-23 | Blue Jackets +1.5 v. Kings | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Columbus Blue Jackets put an end to their four-game losing streak this past Tuesday. After losing against the Seattle Kraken 4-2, Ottawa Senators 5-2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5-4 in overtime, and St. Louis Blues 5-2, the Blue Jackets outlasted the San Jose Sharks 6-5 in overtime as +130 road dogs. Johnny Gaudreau went off for a pair of goals and three assists last Tuesday, while Boone Jenner scored a couple of goals. The Blue Jackets outshot the Shark 48-32 and fully deserved the victory despite blowing a 5-3 lead in the third period. "I felt good tonight," Gaudreau said. “Just a fun game to be a part of there.” |
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03-16-23 | Penn State +3.5 v. Texas A&M | 76-59 | Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Micah Shrewsberry will try to keep the momentum going against what has to be a down-in-the-dumps bunch of Aggies, crushed by Alabama in the SEC title game. A plus for the Lions is their 10-5 SU and 14-0-1 ATS record in their last fifteen games on neutral courts. Sure, the Aggies may be 12-2 ATS as a favorite (9-0 ATS the last nine) since the calendar turned on January 1, but the Lions carry an 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS ledger in their last ten games into this contest. They are also 13-5 ATS against .666 or greater opponents this season, including six ATS covers in a row when taking points. This will be Texas A&M’s first trip to The Dance since 2018 but we don’t look for the celebration to go much further. Both teams bring plenty to the table but being major dog lovers, we can’t remain neutral here, not with the Nits on a ‘neutral assault’. |
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03-16-23 | Northern Kentucky v. Houston -19 | 52-63 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston led the country in scoring margin (+16.0) and they play a suffocating style of defense. They’re also 6-0 ATS in games when coming off a double-digit loss. The feeling here is coach Sampson and company will likely be hell-bent on making a statement in this game today. If it weren’t for the Cougars’ worst-in-class 1-6 ATS mark this season in games versus fellow NCAA Tournament teams, we’d consider snapping the rubber band. Nonetheless, the Norse closed like a racehorse, going 7-1 SUATS down the stretch to capture the Horizon League title. They returned 4 starters from last year’s 20-win unit but were only 2-8 ATS in games outside the Horizon. They are 0-2 all-time in this event, as well as 1-24 ATS in their last 25 outright losses. That might be all you need to know today. |
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03-16-23 | Stars +1.5 v. Oilers | 1-4 | Loss | -200 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Stars had their three-game winning streak snapped by the Canucks in their last game. They will try to bounce back from the loss with a win over the Oilers, which will give them their fourth win in their last five games. Dallas is averaging 3.41 goals per game. They scored two goals on 27 shots in their last game. Jamie Benn had a goal and an assist for the Stars. Wyatt Johnston scored a goal, while Miro Heiskanen had an assist. Dallas has played well defensively, giving up 2.68 goals per game. They gave up five goals in their last game and will need a significantly better effort if they want to win this game. |
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03-16-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -13 | 139-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have won 10 straight games over the Pacers, including 2-0 this season. In that time, Milwaukee is also 8-2 ATS vs. the Pacers. Milwaukee's defense should be able to stifle the Pacers' offense which is just 25th in the league in field goal shooting. On the season, the Bucks are 28-6 at home and 46-10 as favorites. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS in its last six meetings with the Bucks and has won just four of its last 17 road games. The Bucks have not shown a proclivity to slow down over the last two months and I don't expect a letdown game here upon their return home from the trip. |
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03-16-23 | Oral Roberts +6.5 v. Duke | 51-74 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units This is the fourth time in school history that Duke isn’t a top-4 seed, and In the two previous instances, it lost in the first round (2007 as a No. 6 vs. VCU, 1996 as a No. 8 vs. Eastern Michigan). It could happen again here against an Oral Roberts’ squad that returned their top 6 scorers, and 7 of the top 8 from last year’s 19-win unit this season. The Golden Eagles reached the Sweet 16 in 2021, and their current 18-game win streak is the longest in this tournament. Can’t turn down another of the four 30-win teams in this tournament, especially when we get a look at the fact that ACC tourney champions are just 10-20-1 ATS in opening round games in the NCAA Tournament, including 0-7 ATS as a No. 3 or worse seed. |
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03-16-23 | Nuggets v. Pistons +15 | 119-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I love a contrarian bet, and this one certainly fits the bill. The Nuggets are still the top team in the Western Conference, but they have failed to cover the spread in five straight games and are riding a four-game losing streak overall. They are facing a Detroit team that no one wants to bet on right now, but the Pistons picked up an outright win earlier this week and will be getting a boost when Ivey from a three-game absence. The Pistons have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games against Denver, including an outright win earlier this season, and they have value as double-digit underdogs on Thursday. |
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03-16-23 | Princeton +14.5 v. Arizona | 59-55 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Zona is now 61-10 under Lloyd as his troops lost to Houston in the Sweet 16 in this tournament last season – his only postseason loss with the Wildcats (8-1). Lloyd’s 22-2 SU and 17-7 ATS mark in games against foes coming off a win of more than 8 points also figures to serve them well here today. However, Pac-12 conference champions are only 2-6-1 ATS in the first round of the NCAA tournament when facing foes coming off a win. As for Princeton, the Ivy Leaguers sport a 10-5 ATS mark in this tourney since 2010, including 7-1 ATS when coming off a win of 7-plus points. The Tigers are also 6-2 ATS as a double-digit dog under head coach Mitch Henderson versus winning opponents who are not undefeated, in addition to going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as a dog this season. Remember, all four No. 2 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 just twice in the past 25 tournaments and given the Wildcats’ wimpy 2-11-1 ATS ledger in its last 14 dances, we’ll be on the take today. |
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03-16-23 | College of Charleston +5.5 v. San Diego State | 57-63 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Considering the Cougars' only NCAA tournament win came way back in 1997, the odds seem stacked against a deep run here. But Charleston has been a tough out in this tournament, as all six games in school history have been decided by 10 or fewer points, despite the Cougars being a 12-seed or worse in four of those five appearances. There are also plenty of hurdles facing the Aztecs in this year’s event. For openers, the Mountain West have never had a team advance beyond the Sweet 16, as opposed to 17 other conferences that have had teams reach the Elite Eight since the MWC was formed in 1999-2000. And it gets uglier as, per ESPN, the MWC is 1-8 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in fi rst round games since 2010. History has not been kind to the Aztecs either, as they’ve gone one-and done in each of the last three Dances while dropping four straight games. They’d also better polish up their 3-point defense for this one – almost half of the Cougars’ shot attempts are from beyond the arc. Add the fact that Charleston fans should descend en masse to the not-so-distant venue in Orlando, and we smell an upset right out of the box. |
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03-16-23 | Utah State v. Missouri +1.5 | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A big concern for Utah State: Per ESPN – Mountain West teams seeded 10th or worse are 1-23 all time, with 20 straight losses since the only win in 2002. That’s certainly not good news for the Aggies. Especially as they fi nd themselves dressing up as a favorite against the 7th-seeded Tigers. Head coach Ryan Odom, who coached No 16 seed UMBC to its magical upset over top-seeded Virginia in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, guided the Aggies to the NIT last year and the NCAA Tourney this season in his fi rst two years with Utah State. They play a rugged brand of defense but it’s going to take a major effort to move a mountain and overcome the MWC’s putrid history in this tourney. Yes, Missouri will need to overcome a 0-6 SUATS mark in their last six games on the dance floor but they’ll do so knowing they are 10-5 SUATS in this tournament in games in which they sport the better record. It’s showtime for the Tigers. |
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03-16-23 | Furman +6.5 v. Virginia | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Furman is also one of four “double champions” (teams who won both their regular season and postseason conference titles) who are taking points from foes that won neither. We love fading these often-times disappointed favorites, especially with double-confident champions who are ecstatic to be dancing. Hey, the Paladins won their 15 conference games by an average margin of 16 points, and four players take the fl oor here averaging double-digits. Virginia can claim the second-best defense in the tourney, but they’ll need to apply the screws if they don’t wish to get screwed in this lid-lifter |
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03-15-23 | Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati -5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is one of those games where the road team probably doesn't want to be there and the home team just wants to beat an ACC squad. Cincinnati's big advantage is on the boards where Virginia Tech ranks 209th in the nation in rebounding margin a -0.1. Virginia Tech is also bad on the road, shooting just 31.8% from long range, while Cincy is holding teams to 31.2% from long range at home. The Bearcats also put up 82.7 points per game on 47% shooting at home. |
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03-15-23 | 76ers v. Cavs +2.5 | 118-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland was clearly doing some load management on Tuesday night to be fully prepared for this critical matchup. The Cavaliers were able to give Mitchell a day off, so their leading scorer and top defender should be fresh on Wednesday. Allen’s status is still up in the air at the time of writing, but his return would provide a big boost as well. Philadelphia looked terrible in its first trip to Cleveland this season, getting blown out in a 113-85 final. The Cavaliers top-ranked defense held Embiid to just 19 points in one of his worst outings of the campaign. They need this game worse than Philadelphia as far as the standings go, and I expect them to come up with a big win. |
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03-15-23 | Texas Southern v. Fairleigh Dickinson +2.5 | 61-84 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The strange thing here is that FDU is playing tonight despite the fact the Knights actually lost to league champion Merrimack in the Northeast Conference championship game. That's because Merrimack is a Division-1 newbie who made the jump from Division II to Division I in 2019, but is serving the last year of a four-year prohibition from NCAA tournament play following its transition. Editor's note: It's such an archaic rule that needs to be abolished. Nevertheless, the Knights went 1-3 SUATS against 'lined' opponents this season (beat St. Joseph's), and are 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS in this tourney, with their last appearance resulting in an 87-49 loss to top-seeded Gonzaga in 2019. On the other side of the court, 14-20 Texas Southern enters as the only team in this year's Dance with a losing record, yet own the Southwestern Athletic Conference tourney to make its second consecutive trip to this tournament (beat A&M CC in a "First Four" game last year before bowing out, 83-56, to Kansas thereafter. The Tigers did take down Arizona State, 67-66, as a 12-point home dog this season. While they have the experience, FDU is playing with house-money. And we're not betting against the house. |
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03-14-23 | Seton Hall +4.5 v. Colorado | 64-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the clash between a couple of defensive-minded teams. Both schools struggle to shoot the ball from deep and are far away from an elite level when it comes to offensive efficiency. Seton Hall makes just 5.8 triples per game (326th in the country) on a 32.8 percentage clip (259th), while Colorado hits 6.5 threes (282nd) on a 31.9 percentage clip (304th). Hereof, I’m expecting to see a tight battle, so give me the underdogs to cover a 4.5-point spread. Both Pirates and Buffaloes have been pretty inconsistent lately, and it’s hard to trust either side. Seton Hall is 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS in its last eight games overall, though the Pirates have covered the spread in five straight outings on the road. On the other side, Colorado is 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS in its past eight contests overall and 3-4 ATS in its previous seven showings at home. |
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03-14-23 | Flames v. Coyotes +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Flames are looking to build off a big win on their home ice but I see the Coyotes, who have won three of their last four games, stepping up and controlling this game from the first period. The Coyotes look to build off a five-goal game and constantly find the back of the net with Clayton Keller Lawson Crouse, and the rest of the forward unit controlling the puck in the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Coyotes also look to the Flames' offense with Patrik Nemeth, J.J. Moser, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Karel Vejmelka to make plenty of big saves. The Coyotes should win the game and provide great odds in the process as home Underdogs. |
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03-14-23 | Mississippi State v. Pittsburgh +2.5 | 59-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Panthers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall, 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs a team with a winning record. While the Bulldogs are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. |
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03-14-23 | Bradley +3.5 v. Wisconsin | 62-81 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I have been fading this overrated Wisconsin team throughout the season, and I see no reason to stop here in a matchup against a team that will be more motivated. The Badgers had NCAA Tournament aspirations this season, and they were expected to be a threat to make the second weekend. Instead, they flopped in conference play and only covered the spread five times in their last 20 games. Bradley enters this matchup riding a six-game road winning streak and having won 12 of its last 13 games. The Braves were regular-season champs and will be motivated to prove that was not a fluke against a major-conference team. |
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03-14-23 | Lakers +1.5 v. Pelicans | 123-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to ride with the Lakers on the road, as I like the additions that they made at the trade deadline and they will be highly motivated to bounce back after losing their last game to the Knicks. I don't trust the New Orleans Pelicans right now, either. They are currently dealing with injuries, as Ingram is questionable for this game and Zion is still out. This has hurt them all season, and I see that trend continuing in this one. I don't believe the Pelicans will be able to efficiently score against the Lakers, as they have the 14th-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the 10th-lowest shooting percentage from the field. They will make it tough for the Pels and New Orleans will slowly fall behind in this game. I also trust this Los Angeles offense, as they are averaging the eighth most points per game and they have the 11th-highest team shooting percentage. They will continue to attack the basket throughout this game and slowly pull away. The Lakers are playing desperately and the Pelicans have continued to slide in the wrong direction. |
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03-14-23 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Predators | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Predators presently find themselves in the fight of their lives to make the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, sitting just five points below the current 2nd-Wild Card holders Colorado Avalanche, trailing the 1st Wild Card occupants Edmonton Oilers by seven points, but with three games in hand. Everything counts for Nashville at the moment! Still, while the Preds have done pretty decently lately, winning seven of their last 10 matchups (7-2-1), only one of those victories, mind, has come on their own ice, where Nashville has recorded just a single regulation win on the previous six occasions (2-4-0). Detroit, which is still just seven points off a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference with two games in hand, meanwhile, has been a real threat versus opponents from the Western Conference of late (6-1-1), while the Predators have only managed to triumph in four of their most recent 11 domestic fixtures against the Red Wings (4-7-0). |
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03-14-23 | Capitals +1.5 v. Rangers | 3-5 | Loss | -170 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Two division foes with differing agendas battle for the third time this season Tuesday night when the Rangers host the Capitals. New York heads into Tuesday at 84 points, good enough to be six points clear of the Penguins for the first wild-card spot. However, Rangers are 4-5-2 since Feb. 17 to go from six points out of first place in the division to a 10-point deficit behind the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils. During their run of uneven performances, the Rangers played three home games and lost to Winnipeg and Ottawa. New York is returning home to play six of its next eight at home after going 2-0-1 on a three-game trip through Montreal, Buffalo and Pittsburgh. The Rangers ended the trip with a 3-2 loss in Pittsburgh on Sunday when backup goalie Jaroslav Halak was beaten by Kris Letang's power-play goal 1:38 into overtime. Sunday's loss occurred after the Rangers got 32 saves from Igor Shesterkin and a power-play goal from Artemi Panarin in a 2-1 overtime win at Buffalo a day earlier. It marked the sixth time since the Edmonton win on Feb. 17 that the Rangers scored two goals or fewer. Consider that the Capitals are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. |
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03-14-23 | Lightning +1.5 v. Devils | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lightning are having a great season with their offense leading the way, scoring 3.45 goals per game. Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point have scored 69 goals and 105 assists to leave the top line but the rest of the offensive stepped up as well. Brandon Hagel, Alex Killorn, and Nick Paul have combined for 60 goals and 75 assists while defensemen Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev have added 13 goals and 78 assists from the point to open up the offense. The bright spot has been the play of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy who has a .914 save percentage and a 2.70 goals-against average on 1564 shots with 13.3 goals saved above average. |
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03-14-23 | Jets +1.5 v. Hurricanes | 3-5 | Loss | -136 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Winnipeg Jets are allowing an average of 2.81 goals per game, which is 11th best in the NHL, while scoring an average of 3.10 goals per game. Winnipeg is holding opponents to an average of 31.2 shots per game which is 15th best and the Jets are taking an average of 30.4 shots per game which is 22nd. Winnipeg's power play scores 21.3% of the time the Jets have the man advantage which is 17th and the penalty kill unit is successful 82.5% of the time Winnipeg is short-handed which is 7th best. Connor Hellebuyck is 29-20-2 with a 2.64 goals against average, .919 save percentage and three shutouts. |
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03-14-23 | Toledo +6.5 v. Michigan | 80-90 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Toledo is the hungrier team, with a chip on its shoulder after losing in the MAC Tournament championship. The Rockets were victorious in seventeen straight prior to that game and will be out to prove they can play with a traditional Midwestern power. Toledo's offense is elite and will prove it in Ann Arbor, putting the Wolverines in a tough spot. Will the Wolverines defend their pride and home court in an otherwise unimportant game for a program rich in history? We shall see. |
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03-14-23 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. SE Missouri State +3.5 | 75-71 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the RedHawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games, and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs a team with a winning % above .600. Additionally, the Islanders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday Games. |
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03-13-23 | Celtics -12.5 v. Rockets | 109-111 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics won't have any issues rolling along to a big win on Monday night against one of the NBA's worst teams. Even though they'll be hitting the road, that didn't seem to bother them in the first game of their road trip, while Houston has one of the worst home-court advantages in the league. The Rockets' lone advantage this season has been their rebounding but with Sengun questionable, even that expects to be thrown out the window. On the other side, the Celtics' core is getting healthier and healthier and finally regaining the form that saw them dominate the first half of the season. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Celtics are 4-1 in their last five games against teams with a losing straight-up record, while Houston is 0-5 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. |
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03-12-23 | Predators v. Ducks +1.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Ducks have won against the spread in five of their last eight games and two straight at home. The Predators have lost their previous two games against the spread and are 2-2 ATS in their last four road games. The Predators did beat the Ducks at home earlier this season, but Nashville has lost their last two road games straight up and have been trending in the wrong direction away from their home arena. Looks for the Ducks to win at home this time around. |
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03-12-23 | Wild v. Coyotes +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With the way that Fleury has been playing lately, Arizona should struggle to score in this game, but the Wild are going to struggle themselves without Kaprizov. He is one of the best players in the NHL, and his absence is a big one. The big difference in this game is going to be the penalty killing. Arizona has been terrible of late. The Wild are struggling on the power play in their last 10 (2-26), but will get going here. Take Minnesota to score early and clamp down defensively, but they will win by just one. |
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03-12-23 | Wizards v. 76ers -7 | 93-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to ride with the Philadelphia 76ers and I am going to lay the points at home. They are currently (25-10) inside the Wells Fargo Center this season, as I see them staying hot in this game. They have the advantage on both ends of the court, as they will slowly pull away throughout this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the 76ers have the fourth-highest adjusted offensive rating and the ninth-lowest defensive rating. They will get the job done on both ends of the court and dominate in this game. The Wizards are only (4-6) in their last 10 and they've continued to struggle on the defensive end of the court. Washington won't get enough stops to cover the spread, as they only have the 20th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are allowing the 16th most points per game. They've struggled to defend on the perimeter, as Philadelphia will get hot from the outside and pull away throughout this game. Philadelphia is scoring the 14th most points per game and they have the highest three-point shooting percentage in the league. They will score throughout and cover the spread at home |
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03-12-23 | Penn State v. Purdue -7.5 | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Purdue has been dominating the Big Ten all season and they won't stop now. Penn State has shot the ball well in the tournament, but they have not faced a defense like Purdue's. Edey takes away any easy opportunity at the hoop, and Braden Smith is an elite defender who will give Pickett problems on the perimeter. Penn State is also a guard heavy team, they often play four or five guards, which is a terrible matchup when going against Edey. Ohio State played a similar guard heavy lineup, and Edey gave them 32 points and 14 rebounds in an easy win. Edey will do the same here, Penn State does not have an interior defender capable of slowing down Edey inside. The big man dominated all season, and will end the Big Ten season with one more big performance. |
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03-12-23 | Memphis v. Houston -5.5 | 75-65 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cougars have won 13 straight games and they haven’t lost a game on the road this season. They have played well offensively, scoring more than 73 points per game away from home. They’ve taken advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making over 78 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They rebound the ball well and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Tigers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Tigers aren’t very good defensively, giving up more than 74 points per game on the road, and will have a hard time slowing down the Cougars in this game. The Tigers have won four of their last five games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 75 points per game in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Cougars and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Cougars, who average more than eight steals per game. The Cougars have played well defensively and held their last three opponents under 60 points per game, so expect them to keep Memphis’ offense in check. Go with Houston to cover the spread. |
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03-11-23 | Arizona +1.5 v. UCLA | 61-59 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quite a bit of how this plays out could well be centered on Bona’s status. If he can’t go, the Bruins will have to rely on Mac Etienne and Kenneth Nwuba. That is a major drop not only in production, but in athleticism, as neither one of those guys brings what Bona does to the floor. Potentially having your top big man limited or missing is bad regardless but when you’re dealing with a team with the twin towers duo of Tubelis and Ballo, it puts a lot of pressure on Jaquez Jr. and Campbell to carry a bigger share of the load. Arizona wants to make up for their loss last week at Pauley Pavilion in the regular season finale. The Wildcats have their team ready to go and they are facing a Bruins team that might be worried about avoiding any further injuries. Look for Arizona to claw out a tight win here with both teams preparing for where they’ll end up for the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-11-23 | Mavs v. Grizzlies -5.5 | 108-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
03-11-23 | Kent State v. Toledo +1 | 93-78 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When looking at adjusted offensive ratings, there is a huge difference as Toledo is ninth in college basketball with a 119.5 offensive rating while Kent State is currently 135th in the sport with a 107.4 offensive rating. A huge reason why is the difference in the capabilities to knock down threes as the Rockets are second in all of the United States shooting 40.7 percent from beyond the arc as a program while the Golden Flashes are all the way down at 236th in the nation with a 32.9 percentage as a program from distance. All in all, go with the Toledo Rockets to cover the spread. |
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03-11-23 | Oilers +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | 4-7 | Loss | -200 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units This is going to be a great game between two of the best teams in the league. The Maple Leafs look to win on their home ice but the Oilers are coming off back-to-back wins and look to control this game from the first period. The Oilers, who average 3.85 goals per game, should pile on the goals with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the rest of the forward unit controlling the puck in the offensive zone and creating open shots with effective puck movement. The Oilers look to build off a game where they only allowed two goals and limit the Maple Leafs' offense with Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Stuart Skinner to make plenty of big saves. The Oilers should win the game and provide great odds in the process as road Underdogs to extend their winning streak to three games. |
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03-11-23 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Hurricanes | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Golden Knights are having a great season with their offense stepping up and scoring 3.14 goals per game. Chandler Stephenson and Jack Eichel have scored 36 goals and 65 assists to lead the top line but the entire offense has stepped up. Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault, and William Karlsson have combined for 52 goals and 75 assists while defensemen Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo have added 16 goals and 56 assists from the point to open up the offense. |
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03-11-23 | Texas +2.5 v. Kansas | 76-56 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
03-11-23 | Fordham v. Dayton -6.5 | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
03-11-23 | Ohio State v. Purdue -7.5 | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
03-11-23 | Missouri v. Alabama -9.5 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
03-10-23 | Cavs +2.5 v. Heat | 115-119 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Cavaliers on the road, as they just took down this same Heat team on Wednesday night and they are the better offensive team in this matchup. They will find different ways to score, as they have the ninth-highest adjusted offensive rating and they have the sixth-highest team shooting percentage. They will efficiently score against this Heat defense and slowly pull away throughout this game. Miami will have a difficult time keeping up with the Cavs, as they have continued to struggle on the offensive end of the court. According to dunksandthrees.com, they only have the 26th-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are averaging the least amount of points per game. The Cavaliers have one of the best defenses in the NBA and they will be ready for this game on the road. They will clamp down on the Heat and keep them from scoring enough points to cover this spread. The Cavaliers are currently holding their opponents to the least amount of points per game and they have the lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will dominate on both ends of the court and cover the spread in this game. |
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03-10-23 | Nets +4.5 v. Wolves | 124-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though they'll be playing for the second-straight night, the Nets were able to rest their starters on Thursday, which will serve them well in covering the spread and springing the upset in this one. They have the wing talent to make a difference in this one and while the frontcourt has been a disadvantage to them on most nights, this is a matchup where that can be minimized. For the Timberwolves, a lack of solid home-court advantage has been a challenge for them to overcome as well. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six Friday games, while the Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days of rest. |
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03-10-23 | Blazers +8.5 v. 76ers | 119-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The history book shows Portland 21-12 SU and 18-13-2 ATS in this series when Philly sports a .426 or greater win percentage, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS when looking to avenge a same-season loss. Meanwhile, the Sixers enter off a same season revenge contest of their own with the Timberwolves toting a 4-12 ATS ledger as home chalk after meetings with Minnesota while having a same-season double revenger on deck with Washington. Connect the dots and put the Trail Blazers on your playlist tonight. |
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03-10-23 | Duke v. Miami-FL +2.5 | 85-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The teams split two meetings this season with each team winning at home. Miami walloped Duke at home in their previous contest, prevailing by 22 points. Duke has won seven straight games as they have turned things around after a slow start on the offensive end of the floor. The Blue Devils are going to be tested defensively by an explosive Miami offensive unit. Miami does have plenty of experience to build around and they are facing a Duke team that is rather lacking in that department. The Blue Devils have played well of late but Miami has the ability to outgun teams almost at will. Give the Hurricanes the slight advantage as they punch their ticket to the title game. |
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03-09-23 | Nets v. Bucks -12 | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have some of the best depth in the NBA and even with their injuries, adding that depth to their homecourt advantage, will be too much for the Nets to overcome. Brooklyn continues their road trip and with fatigue setting in, they don't have the legs to keep up with the Bucks in this one. The biggest difference between these two sides is their rebounding ability and with the Bucks having that advantage on the glass on both ends, their ability to dominate in second-chance scoring will push them forward toward covering the spread in this one. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played off of one day of rest, while they are also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee. |
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03-09-23 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 110-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The Dubs have won five out of the last six games against the Grizzlies overall, but they are 5-0 at home during that stretch. On the road, Memphis has beaten the Warriors in four of the last games straight up, and the Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in the last six games against the Warriors at FedEx Forum. I understand Morant will not be playing, but Memphis is 4-1 straight up in home games without him this season. Both of these teams have been so drastically different at home vs on the road this season. I have to take the home dog here. |
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03-09-23 | Islanders +1.5 v. Penguins | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New York Islanders face the Pittsburgh Penguins in a matchup between two playoff-caliber teams in the Eastern Conference looking to keep their wild card positions. The Islanders have a 33-25-8 record and with back-to-back wins, have leaped into the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. The Penguins have a 32-22-9 record and are coming off a come-from-behind 5-4 overtime win that helped them maintain their playoff spot. Both teams are looking to secure their playoff spots down the stretch and the upcoming game looks to be a great one. Consider that the Penguins are 5-13 in their last 18 vs. Eastern Conference. |
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03-09-23 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Lightning | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tamp Bay offense has been great but the defense has struggled, allowing 3.06 goals per game. Mikhail Sergachev and Ian Cole have combined for 6.4 defensive point shares but the rest of the unit has struggled, allowing opponents to carry the puck into the offensive zone and find open shots on the net. Consider as well that the Golden Knights are 12-4 in their last 16 vs. Atlantic. |
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03-09-23 | Arkansas v. Auburn +3 | 76-73 | Push | 0 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams come into this matchup after poor finishes to the season. Auburn won the regular season battle comfortably, dominating the glass and winning the battle of points off of turnovers. Auburn should once again dominate the glass and get frequent second-chance opportunities against the Razorbacks. Auburn is 20-5 on the season as a favorite while Arkansas has yet to win a game this season as an underdog. The Tigers certainly want to improve their NCAA Tournament position and will do so in this game thanks to their defense and rebounding. |
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03-09-23 | Wake Forest v. Miami-FL -6 | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After staging a spirited comeback attempt against the New Jersey Devils on Sunday, the Arizona Coyotes hope to carry that vibe into today's home game against the St. Louis Blues. The Coyotes rallied from a 4-2 deficit to tie the game and force overtime with the Devils at Mullett Arena. The Blues are 1-5-2 in their last eight. These teams split their first two games this season. The Coyotes won 5-0 at home on Jan. 26 on Karel Vejmelka's 33-save shutout. Consider that the Blues are 8-21 in their last 29 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. |
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03-07-23 | Blues v. Coyotes +1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After staging a spirited comeback attempt against the New Jersey Devils on Sunday, the Arizona Coyotes hope to carry that vibe into today's home game against the St. Louis Blues. The Coyotes rallied from a 4-2 deficit to tie the game and force overtime with the Devils at Mullett Arena. The Blues are 1-5-2 in their last eight. These teams split their first two games this season. The Coyotes won 5-0 at home on Jan. 26 on Karel Vejmelka's 33-save shutout. Consider that the Blues are 8-21 in their last 29 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. |
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03-07-23 | Warriors v. Thunder +4.5 | 128-137 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s getting nitty-gritty time for the Thunder who find themselves 1.5 games back of the 10th and final playoff seed in the Western Conference at press time. The good news is they will carry a double revenge chip on their shoulders into this contest from a pair of setbacks they suffered at the hands of the Warriors in January and February earlier this year. And they’ll do so on a home court where they stood 18-12 SUATS this season at press time. Better yet, the big boom is 4-1-1 ATS this season when seeking same season revenge from a 20-plus point same-season defeat while the Dubs are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS away on Tuesdays. With Goldie arriving off a revenge tussle with the Lakers, there's only one way to look here. |
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03-07-23 | Flames +1.5 v. Wild | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Buoyed by Monday's win in Dallas that snapped a five-game losing skid, the Calgary Flames head to St. Paul, Minn., looking for revenge against the Minnesota Wild tonight. After all, the Wild handed the Flames a humbling 3-0 defeat on Saturday. "We definitely owe Minnesota, so we have to be ready to go. It's another big game," Flames forward Tyler Toffoli said. Toffoli's goal with 6.2 seconds remaining was the difference maker in Calgary's 5-4 win over the Stars, and provided a much-needed boost for the club sitting outside a playoff spot. "Ever since last year, I feel it's a playoff game every time we play these guys. It's a rivalry. It's fun to play those types of games," Toffoli said. Consider that the Flames are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. |
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03-07-23 | Bucks -7 v. Magic | 134-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee finally lost a game over the weekend, but the Bucks immediately got back on track. They also held a big lead in their loss to the 76ers, so they could easily be riding an 18-game winning streak right now. I am not ready to fade them at this point, as they have covered the spread at an 8-2-2 clip in their last 12 games. They have also covered in four of their last five games against Orlando, cruising to a 22-point win as 8-point favorites when these teams met last week. I don’t see any reason why the Magic will be better prepared to cover the spread this time around, especially with Milwaukee facing a tight battle for the No. 1 seed. |
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03-07-23 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech -6.5 | 64-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Notre Dame has struggled all season long and they have dropped five straight meetings with Virginia Tech entering this contest. None of that instills confidence in their chances here. For that matter, their short rotation is problematic against a Hokies team that has pretty decent depth to work with and who are a good scoring unit. Should Starling miss this game as he has the last three, Notre Dame’s already thin group takes another hit and that makes for too deep a hole for them to dig out of here. The Fighting Irish aren’t good enough defensively to overcome missing one of their better offensive players. Virginia Tech brings the curtain down on the Brey era by prevailing here to advance to the second round. |
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03-06-23 | San Francisco v. Gonzaga -14 | 73-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
Consider that the Dons are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win, 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. While the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. |
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03-06-23 | Raptors v. Nuggets -6 | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver is on fire, winning 11 of their last 14 contests, but they are not just winning games – they are dominating them. The last three opponents have been defeated by at least 10 points and they have won each of their last six games at home by at least nine points. The Nuggets are now 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games and 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games overall. Toronto has lost two of their last three games on the road and it took overtime to win in Washington. The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on the road and are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road when facing a team with a winning percentage of greater than 60% at home. Denver is tough to beat already, posting the top shooting percentage in the NBA while Toronto is one of the worst teams in terms of shutting opponents down. Not a good match-up for the Raptors at all. |
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03-06-23 | BYU v. St. Mary's -7 | 69-76 | Push | 0 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Gaels will win straight-up and cover as spread favorites, forcing BYU into enough turnovers to separate on the scoreboard. Saint Mary's slow-tempo approach (359th in pace of play) will put pressure on the Cougars to maximize their offensive opportunities, which will be problematic for a team that averages over 14 turnovers per game, one of the highest turnover ratios in the NCAA. The Cougars will not be able to rely on offensive rebounds, either, as Saint Mary's boasts a +7.1 rebounding margin. I bet the Gaels will win with an efficient shooting performance (52.8 eFG%, 37.2 3PT%) and stout defense (5th in defensive efficiency). |
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03-06-23 | Oilers v. Sabres +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is going to be a great game between two great teams. The Oilers look to bounce back from a rough loss but the Sabres look to step up and control this game on their home ice. The Sabres, who average 3.74 goals per game, should pile on the goals against an Oilers defense that allows 3.31 goals per game with Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with effective puck movement. The Sabres should limit the Oilers' offense with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to make plenty of big saves. The Sabres should win the game and provide great odds in the process as home Underdogs. |