Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-21-21 | Mavs -1.5 v. Blazers | 132-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Friday's loss came in the first game of a stretch in which the Mavericks play eight of nine games on the road. Next Friday's game against the Indiana Pacers is the lone one at home during the span. Doncic looks ready to carry Dallas through the stretch after averaging 40 points over the past two games. But he will need some help on Sunday as the Mavericks try to slow Lillard and the now-revved-up McCollum. Consider that Dallas is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Portland. |
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03-21-21 | Wizards v. Nets -8.5 | 106-113 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Orlando, with some pieces of the puzzle back, spread the floor against disinterested defense the other night, rained 52% three-pointers and prevented the Nets from claiming first place in the Eastern Conference. We shall make an anger play to get our money back, on good team returning home off that road loss, while the kind of bad team, Washington, hits the road off a home win against the team with the NBA’s best record Utah. It’s a zig-zag move. Blake Griffin’s Brooklyn debut is tonight, so they’ll have somebody who at least will give the Wizards’ driving duo something to think about as they propel themselves in penetration. A spread floor with Russell Westbrook shooting from the perimeter doesn’t have to be spread as much – just let him shoot from there. |
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03-21-21 | Bulls v. Pistons +3 | 100-86 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Road dog. Not road favorite. Road dog. Like Chicago was the other night at Denver, where the Bulls raised their pointspread performance to 11-2 ATS when taking points away from home, performing to expectations against a good host – competing well, hanging in there, failing to win outright. Because they lack the winning instinct, expecting Chicago to make enough of a margin against a lesser team away from home is not the right thing to do, in our estimation. |
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03-21-21 | Thunder +3.5 v. Rockets | 114-112 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Roster attrition via injuries and defections robbed the Rockets of their potential, or at least of the opportunity to evaluate how those available pieces could mesh. That Houston has been unable to get a clear view of what that trio can accomplish together underscores why things have come undone, with the 113-100 loss to the Pistons extending the franchise-worst losing streak to 19 games. But some of what ails Houston, which is set to host the Thunder today, has little to do with who has or who hasn't been available for duty. As the losses mount, the Rockets have fought the urge to relent to this lost season, and truthfully, some yielding has come defensively. Consider that Houston is 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite. |
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03-20-21 | Kings v. 76ers -6 | 105-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In the 4 recent games that Joel Embiid has missed, Philly has won three of them. Tobias Harris has picked up his play with Embiid gone and Ben Simmons has been more engaged offensively. Ben had a triple/double in the overtime loss to Milwaukee 3 nights ago. Philly should be motivated here in the get-away game before a 6-game Western swing. Before Friday’s game vs. Boston, the Kings had lost 13 of 17 games and they only had one quality win during that span. Only one team gives up more points than the Sacramento. Sacramento will be missing starting power forward Marvin Bagley for this game and for several weeks. The Kings are 2 and 5 in back-to-back games this season. Against the Celts on Friday Sacramento stayed close and then they got a break when Boston could only score 15 points in the last 12 minutes. The 5 Kings starters played between 32 and 39 minutes. |
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03-20-21 | Hawks v. Lakers -4 | 99-94 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks’ arrive off a set-up similar to how Charlotte entered Denver before getting crushed: a seven-game win streak to get over .500, the last six against opponents barely breathing. Reality bites. |
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03-19-21 | Jazz -3.5 v. Raptors | 115-112 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Toronto got a couple of their best players back on Wednesday but they still could not muster and effort to beat Detroit as they lost by 4. Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam were the players returning but they were just 5 for 24 from the floor combined. The Raptors have lost 6 in a row, 8 of 9 and the win was against the 11 and 28 Rockets. Before Covid gripped the country and when Toronto played their home games in Canada, the Raptors were 23 and 9 at home last season. Now, playing in Tampa, they are a game under .500 at home. If the Raptors aren’t aggressive defending the perimeter, it will be a long night for Toronto. The Raptors are 24th in the league in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. Only the Clips and Brooklyn have shot it better from the 3-point line this season. Utah is 4 and 1 this season in the second of back-to-back games. The Jazz were in D.C. on Thursday and they come to this game in a very foul mood after the Wizards put a spell of them. Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles did their thing but the Jazz reserves were dismal and Utah allowed Bradley Beal to control the tempo. |
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03-19-21 | Nets -10 v. Magic | 113-121 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Home invasion situation for the Nets. The Brooklyn bunch, now tied for first place in the East, flew here on Wednesday night after winning at Indiana, before the Magic flew outta town yesterday morning with a round trip ticket to and from New York, where they hopped off, took the Knicks to the wire in defeat, re-boarded, flew home to go to bed before playing the better NYC squad tonight, taking only +8 after covering +7 (as we expected) at the Knicks, who played without guards Derrick Rose, Elfrid Payton, Immanuel Quickley and Austin Rivers. |
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03-19-21 | Pistons +1.5 v. Rockets | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons proved themselves willing and able conquerors of an opponent in distress when they walloped absentee-laden Toronto in Tampa recently, then came back to win the re-hook when the Raptors were reinforced by Van Vleet and Siakim’s returns following extended layoffs (and Anunoby was still out). Houston, 0-17, but Christian Wood and Danuel House have returned. So what? |
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03-18-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers -1 | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Teams have to force New Orleans to settle for perimeter shots. They are 19th in offensive three-point field-goal percentage. The Pelicans faltered on Tuesday against the Blazers even though their best two players went 21 for 39 from the floor. Once again, Damian Lillard was efficient and carried Portland to victory on Tuesday with 50 and 10 dimes. He had the third fewest field-goal attempts on way to a 50-point game in the shot-clock era. He probably will not just rest on his laurels after the big night either. Last month he had 43 in a game and came back with 35 points in the next out. C.J. McCollum has a shot to have a better game here after getting some rust off on Tuesday |
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03-18-21 | Thunder v. Hawks -7 | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks are 20-20, tied for #6 in the East with Boston, who failed in Cleveland last night. Charlotte is a half-game in front of them and playing better teams out West. OKC’s Luguentz Dort and Darius Bazley both had good games vs. the Hawks in their prior meeting but both are expected to be out as they go G-League-ish. It’s teed up for the home team, which has won six straight, the last five against the biggest collection of troubled bums in a row you could imagine: Orlando, Toronto, Sacramento, Cleveland, Houston |
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03-16-21 | Pelicans +2 v. Blazers | 124-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blazers went 1-1 in Minnesota, a 9-30 team, and were a mere +3 in points differential. The Pelicans are talented enough to be more than a handful for them. The nights we pick the Pelicans, however, tend to be the nights that Stan the Man can’t get them to do anything right. Over the last two weeks, only the Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings are allowing more points per possession than the Blazers are. There has been a lot of losing among those two Western Conference standings anchors! Bad sign for the home favorite, considering that the Pelicans have unleashed some previously unrealized offensive potential in recent weeks. The Pelicans are 4 games out of the #8 seed in the West, but if they’re ever going to make one of their runs that perpetually get basketball writers to say, “New Orleans has arrived, and such a bright future!” only to have them slump and miss the playoffs, again, then a game like this – road, vs. a sixth-place host that barely made the playoffs last season, who could go either way from here – is the kind of game they need to win to start making up ground that will eventually be lost again. |
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03-16-21 | Knicks v. 76ers -6.5 | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 76ers may be taking over from Utah and Phoenix as the new "hottest team in the NBA." Sure, Miami has won 10 of 11 but Philly, in their last five games, is scoring 1.27 points per possession, allowing only 1.03, 5-0 SU and ATS while covering the spread by an average of +20.6 points per game. It’s not sustainable, of course. Utah, our "peak too soon" team, is an NBA-worst -11.8 per game ATS in this same span. This is how things work. The problem is in attempting to detect when the big, long, hot spells will cool down and level off. You know the dips are coming, but when? We’ll figure that against a visitor that is offensively suspect, doesn’t beat winning opposition on a regular basis (it’s called being a bottom-feeder) isn’t home, and who played home vs. the Nets last hight, the Embiid-less 76ers stay hot. |
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03-16-21 | Jazz -4 v. Celtics | 117-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston goes from playing one of the worst teams in the league to one of the best. In Houston on Sunday the Celts took advantage of a team in total disarray. Boston has won 5 of 6 but the last win was too easy and they also beat a Toronto team that has had a bad stretch with the protocols. Boston was also life and death to beat the 14-23 Washington team by a point. The Jazz figure to be motivated after allowing the Warriors to destroy them from outside on Sunday. Rudy Gobert should be able to control the glass. In the game vs. the Warriors, Golden State had 40 rebounds while Gobert had 28 all by his lonesome. When Utah beat this team last month they won the battle of the boards and Utah starting guard Mike Conley didn’t play. |
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03-15-21 | Clippers -1.5 v. Mavs | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Second of back-to-backs for the Clippers, but they were blown out after three quarters in New Orleans last night. All of the obvious recent signs point in Dallas’ direction. The Mavericks are 7-2 since Feb. 15 with a +5.4 points differential. The Clippers are 5-7 in the same span, with a +0.8 margin. But when they got on the airplane headed for New Orleans, the Clippers knew they’d be playing two games in three days at Dallas immediately afterwards. The eighth-place Mavericks are only 3.5 games behind the fourth place Clippers today. Not only is there the matter of keeping at bay a team near them in the standings, there was a 124-73 home loss to the Mavericks in the third game of the season. That was an incredible 51-point losing margin, at home! Professional athletes who have attained certain levels of what is described as “success” aren’t always motivated to play their best emotionally and physically. But 51-point home losses (Kawhi Leonard didn’t play, and he and Paul George played only 29 and 23 minutes last night) tend to be remembered at payback time! L.A. is the #1 three-point shooting team (41.7%). |
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03-15-21 | Knicks v. Nets -8.5 | 112-117 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nets won 116-109 at Madison Square Garden on Jan. 12, after they’d beaten Denver 122-116 the night before. The Knicks don’t beat winning opponents. Maybe once in a while they do. But when the opponent wants to get serious, they normally won’t. Playing good defense against lousy teams has helped New York to become 20-19, currently #7 in the East. Attempting to play good defense against one of the most potent offensive teams will probably be for naught. The Nets are a half-game behind Two Week Embiid-Less Philadelphia, have won nine of their last 10. They eased past Detroit in a sandwich game the other night, between beating real threat Boston and tipping it off here against real threat (to their neighborhood manhood) New York. No Durant, no Blake Griffin yet, no problem? |
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03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Sacramento has dropped 12 of 15. Two of the wins came against Detroit and Houston and the other came against the Lakers when they were without LeBron and Anthony Davis. Charlotte beat this club the last night in February despite 3 starters for the Hornets shooting 6 for 18 from the floor. The Hornets have won 3 in a row, 4 of 5 and the loss was in Oregon to the pesky Blazers. Their rotation got deeper immediately after the break. |
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03-15-21 | Bucks v. Wizards +8.5 | 133-122 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite playing without All-Star and NBA leading scorer Bradley Beal, Washington took Milwaukee to the limit in Saturday's 125-119 Bucks win. Russell Westbrook, who recorded a triple-double of 42 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds, made a 3-pointer that pulled the Wizards into a 119-119 tie before Milwaukee scored the game's final six points. Despite the output allowed on Saturday, Washington. Coach Scott Brooks praised the defensive effort in holding the Bucks below 44 percent shooting, and cited the interior defense of center Alex Len, who Brooks called "active." Consider that Washington is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall while Milwaukee is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. |
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03-14-21 | Jazz -6.5 v. Warriors | 119-131 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A very telling scenario: For weeks, the Warriors had been going along steadily in the Western Conference’s top eight, not really threatening the top four but holding service in the group that was vying in the #5 to #8 range. But their last three games before the All-Star break were on the road against the Lakers, Blazers and Suns – winning Western Conference teams familiar with them. The results were L-L-L. They came out of the break to get killed on the road at the Clippers, another in the group of Western Conference opponents in the stratosphere above them. They have fallen to #9, possibly with a lead weight attached. Although they are finally back home, the opponent is the one team that’s been flying clearly above everybody else in the West, and the league in general, for the last seven weeks. Recent results suggest that the Warriors are outclassed in match-ups like this. |
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03-14-21 | Grizzlies -7 v. Thunder | Top | 122-128 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Second of back-to-backs for the host Thunder following yesterday’s crash and burn by our new least favorite basketball team. Hopefully they get what they deserve and lose ten more games consecutively. They are very excited that 7-footer Moses Brown, in his second career start, got a double-double in their 22-point home loss to a Knicks team with three guards out, and one on the floor who can’t score (Frank Nktilina). Good God. Rested Memphis can be a defensively harassing pest on any given night, especially when they didn’t play the night before and the other guys did. Actually, when both sides were playing second of back-to-backs in Memphis on Feb. 17, OKC turned it over 18 times and lost 122-113. |
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03-13-21 | Mavs +2 v. Nuggets | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks lost the second of back-to-backs at Oklahoma City on Thursday after they’d beaten San Antonio at home the night before. They were in Denver yesterday, as the Nuggets were in Memphis, winning no less. It’s a home invasion situation for a Dallas team that’s been doing quite well in this match-up of late. In the last five meetings, the Mavericks have outscored the Nuggets by +21 points. That’s an average margin of +4.2 per game and the oddsmaker gives the rested road dog a head start here. |
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03-13-21 | Raptors v. Hornets -2 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Toronto, who has several players dealing with health and safety protocols, hosted the Hawks on Thursday. The Raptors were beaten off the boards in the defeat and the game would not have been all that close if Chris Boucher didn’t have a huge game. Chris has 29 points and he has only reached that many points or more two other times this season. The Pistons visited North Carolina on Thursday in a game where Scary Terry Rozier dominated down the stretch. The Hornets lost back-toback games to Toronto in January but there were reasons. In the first loss, the Hornets rally fell short when Gordon Hayward didn’t play and LaMelo Ball was not even starting. In the second loss, the Charlotte bench just didn’t show up as they scored 11 fewer points than their average this season. Charlotte has won 4 of 6 including a win over Phoenix and in one of the losses during this time span Melo had a ‘glory days’ game for Portland. |
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03-13-21 | Knicks v. Thunder +4.5 | 119-97 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units What can the Knicks do for an encore following the expected 25-point loss at ***BEST BET Milwaukee on Thursday? The Knicks don’t beat many good teams. They have beaten enough losing teams to have a .500 record. OKC is a losing team. Since the Knicks acquired Derrick Rose from Detroit, they are 8-4 SU when he plays. But Rose didn’t play in Milwaukee and he won’t play today. Aha. The Thunder beat the Knicks 101-89 in New York on Jan. 9. Little-known fact: Mike Miller, former Knicks assistant and their interim coach last season after David Fizdale fizzled out and was sent packing, is top assistant for first-season OKC head coach Mark Daigneault. Double-aha! Ya’ think perhaps Miller and fellow former New York, now OKC assistant Royal Ivey – Harlem-born and Queens, NY high school champ -- had a little something to do with fashioning that prior win? Shea Gilgeous-Alexander out for OKC. Yeah, seen that movie before. |
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03-12-21 | Magic v. Spurs -7.5 | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Magic travel for a second of back-to-backs, against a rested home team that is coming off a loss. Shooting guards Evan Fournier and Terrance Ross were out last night. They tried to go big and hung in there for a while, but wilted badly in the fourth quarter. Good luck to them, and their backers, if those two are out again tonight. Fournier is definitely out, Ross questionable. Not to mention point guard Cole Anthony having been out since Feb. 9, and 6’6” small forward James Ennis III out since Feb. 25. Oy. Compared to what San Antonio had to deal with against Doncic and Porzingis the other night, this is quite the class drop. |
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03-12-21 | Cavs v. Pelicans -7 | 82-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland doesn’t make it easy on themselves. They are the only team that has averaged fewer than 10 three-pointers a game. Coach Van Gundy has to get his team to play more consistent in the second half of the season. The Pelicans take good shots and are tied for 5th in the league in offensive field-goal percentage. |
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03-12-21 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | 127-101 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No Embiid, no Simmons in Chicago last night? No problem! Come on, man, that was a fun set-up, taking points with the 76ers against the Bulls without those two, once again watching the “high-profile absentee chasers” go down to defeat with information that everybody knows, but attempts to leverage while not accounting for the reality of professional players and coaches doing their jobs in the absence of “superstars,” who are merely guys with big stats. It was so much fun that we are emboldened, as Embiid returns tonight but Simmons is still out, to figure “Washington outright” as the Sixers lay two possessions in the second of back-to-backs vs. the rested home side that is coming off a loss. Simmons is a danged good defender. |
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03-12-21 | Nuggets -3 v. Grizzlies | 103-102 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Memphis hosted the Wizards on Wednesday in a game that the Grizzlies controlled in the second half. Memphis was a bit on the fortunate side since Washington’s best player Bradley Beal shot only 27% from the floor. That was Beal’s second worst shooting night of the season as he has averaged 48% from the field this season. Denver has won 4 in a row including a 31-point win over Milwaukee on the second of a back-to-back game. They have also won 5 of 6 and the loss during this period was by a bucket. The Nuggets play the right way and they have several guys that can get their own shot. They are in the top 8 in the league in scoring, allowing points and assists. The Nuggets are behind only Milwaukee, Phoenix and Utah in point differential |
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03-11-21 | 76ers +3.5 v. Bulls | 127-105 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units Ha. They can’t trap us. The Bulls have been best as road dogs, as we often note on these pages. Tonight, because neither Joel Embiid nor Ben Simmons is playing for the 76ers, Chicago is a -3+ home favorite against the Eastern Conference’s first place team. You know what they say. First, they say that what everybody and his brother knows is not worth knowing. Also, they say that when the big cats are away, the mice will play! |
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03-11-21 | Knicks v. Bucks -10.5 | 101-134 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Bucks have revenge for a 130-110 loss in New York. They seem to be pacing themselves this season as opposed to last, when they were the clear #1 team throughout, then fizzled badly in the post-season. The Knicks have been playing well, it’s true. But who have they been playing? Mostly nobody. Prior to a recent rare loss for New York, in San Antonio, we noted that they’d been beating losers. The Knicks were supposed to lose that game, against a winning team, by 4 points. They lost it by 26. They went home to win against banged-up, travel-weary Detroit. Big whoop. Milwaukee shot 7-for-38 from three-point range when they lost in New York. With Mitchell Robinson out for the Knicks, Giannis can posterize Nerlens Noel a few times. |
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03-11-21 | Hawks -3 v. Raptors | 121-120 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Toronto was hit hard at the end of the first half of the season with health and safety protocols. It is kind of amazing the way the NBA has continued to carry on despite all the health issues. When Toronto lost to the Hawks in February Atlanta did a good job on both of the Toronto starting guards and Atlanta won despite turning it over 18 times. Atlanta went 3 and 2 in their last 5 in the first half but in that span they beat Boston and they also handled Miami. Atlanta kicks it off here only 2 games out of the 6th spot in the East. |
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03-04-21 | Warriors v. Suns -6.5 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Not a good set-up for the Warriors. Following last night’s ding-donger defeat in Portland, they face the new "hottest team in the NBA" after a night flight into the Arizona desert, where the rested Suns await with some impressive recent numbers including: +14.8 points differential last eight games, including the second best offensive efficiency (1.24 points per possession) and fifth best defensive efficiency (1.09 points per possession) in that span. During it, the Suns are shooting 52.0%, tops in the league for the stretch, and turning it over only 11 times per game, fewest in the league. On Jan. 28, the Suns beat the Warriors by 21 points here without Devin Booker. 6’7" shooting guard Kelly Oubre (15.5 ppg, 5.7 reb in 30.3 minutes per) didn’t play for the Warriors last night |
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03-04-21 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | 107-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks tried to do the Thunder a favor last night by resting Luka Doncic. OKC could not take advantage, losing the game and the spread 87-78 in a Festival of Bad Shooting. You’ll recall that last week, the Spurs came off a pause to lose 102-99 in OKC on a last-second corner three-pointer by Lu Dort. San Antonio played that game off a 10-day forced break, without Demar DeRozan, Derrick White, Rudy Gay and Keldon Johnson. Only DeRozan and Johnson have returned since, but that should be enough to turn the tables sufficiently. |
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03-04-21 | Pistons v. Knicks -6.5 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Pistons are dead last in the Eastern Conference and they have struggled mightily on the road. Detroit’s best player this season, Jerami Grant, has been dealing with a bruised left quad. Detroit faced Toronto on Wednesday and they took advantage of the Raptors being shorthanded in the facile Pistons win. Toronto was missing several key players. The Spurs snapped a 3-game Knicks winning streak on Tuesday but New York was missing some key elements. Elfrid Payton was out with a hammy and Derrick Rose was dealing with health and safety issues. With a win the Knicks would go into the All-Star break a game over .500. Rookie Immanuel Quickley has been a bright spot. He had 26 points off the bench in the Tuesday loss and leads all rookies this season with games of 25 points or more. |
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03-03-21 | Hornets -1 v. Wolves | 135-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit The T’Wolves are lettin’ it fly. For the season, they’ve averaged a league-high 92.1 field goal attempts per game. But since the Saunders child was fired as head coach, replaced by the former Raptors’ assistant Chris Finch, they’re putting up 97.5 shots per game. The problem with that? With both D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley out, many of those shots are being taken by not-so-hot shooters, finding the net only 42.1% of the time. They’re hittin’ only 30.9% of their three-point attempts under Finch, and turning the ball over like crazy. Charlotte is 2-3 on their road trip, which ends here along with the first half of their season. They have a goal: go into their break following a .500 trip. |
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03-03-21 | Nets -9.5 v. Rockets | 132-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Okay, Houston, we’ve had a problem here and we are not talking about Appolo 13. The Rockets have not won a game since Feb. 4 and in that win they had one of their best guys, Christian Wood, playing. Wood is out until after the All-Star break. Brooklyn, on the other hand, is rolling. They have only lost twice since Feb. 8. Brooklyn showed grit in the Monday win after the Spurs closed the game with a 10-point run but the Texans lost in overtime. James Harden should be up for this one as he is back to face his former club. The guy who coached him in Houston, Mike Dantoni, who left before they could fire him after his four-season run, is the Nets’ #1 assistant. |
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03-02-21 | Nuggets v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 128-97 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Denver has several guys with nagging injuries and guys that are dealing with protocol issues. Denver lost to this team by 13 last month when the Nuggets not only lost the battle of the boards but they lost on a night when the Bucks Khris Middleton was 0 for 5 from beyond the arc. This season, Khris is shooting at 43% from distance. The Bucks got Jrue Holiday back Sunday and although he played limited minutes and the rust was evident, Milwaukee still had enough to take care of the Clippers. As usual, Giannis Antetokounmpo did a little bit of everything with 14 boards, 5 assists, 4 blocks and a steal to go along with this 36 points. Bobby Portis has found a niche with Milwaukee. On Sunday, he had 9 points, 7 boards and 3 thefts in 21 minutes. It’s a tough spot for Denver in their current shape with no rest. |
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03-01-21 | Hornets v. Blazers -6.5 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The Blazers have two days of rest. The visiting Hornets play the second of back-to-backs. We started saying this a few weeks ago: Portland – still 18-14 -- needs to win games like this while Nurkic and McCollum are out. They enter on a four-game losing streak, three of them on the road against winners (Phoenix, Denver, Lakers). For this they are home, with the favorable set-up, against a loser. They’re in sixth place in the West but only 1.5 games out of ninth. It may not appear so on the surface, but it’s as big a game as they’ll play. Consider that Charlotte is |
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02-28-21 | Suns -10 v. Wolves | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The hot-hot Suns conduct a home invasion, rested after winning in Chicago on Friday night, in town yesterday and casing the joint as the lowly T’Wolves were in Washington being abused, again. The home dog that lacks bite (and also lacks the offense of D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley) plays the second of back-to-backs, road to home. |
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02-28-21 | Grizzlies -3.5 v. Rockets | Top | 133-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The Rockets’ latest misadventure was losing by 11 points to what was basically a self-coached Raptors team. When we heard that Toronto would be without six coaches plus Pascal Siakim vs. Houston on Fridayand doubled down on the ***BEST BET. People will cling to any piece of not-so-relevant news in order to take points, won’t they? But bad teams do not take advantage and are not good to latch onto. On Friday night, Memphis lacked defensive intensity in the second of back-to-backs vs. the Clippers. They’ve done that before in the same situation. This is not that situation. Consider that Houston is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. |
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02-27-21 | Nuggets v. Thunder +7 | 126-96 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Second of back-to-backs on this floor for the host Thunder after they beat Atlanta last night. The Nuggets are rested and off a loss, but with a handful of guys out, their defensive abilities are on the wane. The Thunder have visited Denver twice already (0-2, 119-101 the first time, 97-95 the second). Double-revenge home dog shouldn’t be too taxed to give it a good go in their final home game before the league’s one-week break. They don’t play again until March 3-4 in Dallas-San Antonio. OKC sat Al Horford last night but he should play tonight. Leave it all on the floor. |
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02-27-21 | Pacers +1 v. Knicks | 107-110 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pacers are 15-15. The Knicks are 16-17. An opportunity for the Knicks to hit .500, seems like a good time for them to fail. The next game after the Knicks scored 140 points seems like a good time for them to experience “what goes down” after “what went up.” Why the Pacers decided to take 50 of their 84 field goal attempts from three-point range the last time they played the Knicks (and lost 106-102) is a good question with no good answer. But perhaps, without menacing Mitchell Robinson on the floor for New York, Indiana will have the good sense to go inside much more. They also don’t have Victor Oladipo to shoot 3-for-16 like he did in that game. |
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02-26-21 | Blazers +5.5 v. Lakers | 93-102 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units After a win by the Lakers over the Wolves on Feb. 16, L.A. was 5-1 when playing without Anthony Davis. They basically were beating poor teams in that span. Since the win Feb. 16, L.A. has lost 4 in a row including a defeat by the 11 and 18 Wizards. The Lakers have failed to reach 100 points in 3 of the last 4 games. Portland comes to the Staples Center in a foul mood after dropping 3 straight games. That is their longest losing streak of the season. In Portland’s last loss, they were in the Mile High and were tied with 12 minutes to go but lost the last quarter and the game by 5. When Portland beat the Lakers early in the season, the Blazers high-flying Derrick Jones was only one for 9 from the floor. In Portland’s last loss, Jones was 7 for 9 from the floor with three blocks. |
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02-26-21 | Hornets v. Warriors -6 | 121-130 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State playing pretty well, coming off victories at New York and Indiana with a 6-3 SU record in the last 9 games. Warriors (or at least Draymond Green) will well-remember how their first encounter with Charlotte ended. A wild 102-100 Hornet win in the Spectrum Center, when Green lost it and was bounced with two technicals with 9.3 seconds remaining, as the Warriors blew their 5-point lead in the final 43 seconds of the match. Have to respect Charlotte on the road, where the Hornets have covered 7 of their last 10 but Golden State has the psychological edge, and remember Steph Curry was a late scratch in that game due to him just not feeling right after pregame drills. Golden State 6-3 as home chalk, and Curry (who scored 37 pts. in 37 minutes Tuesday vs. NY, knows his friends and family will be watching back in Charlotte, where he grew up when his dad Dell was playing for the Hornets. |
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02-26-21 | Pacers v. Celtics -3 | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The busy-busy-busy Celtics dropped to 15-16 when beaten by Luka Doncic in the final seconds Tuesday night. They flew to Atlanta after that to lose a Wednesday night battle of back-to-backers vs. Atlanta. They’re 15-17. If the 15-15 Pacers have a Doncic-type or Trae Young-type player, or somebody that could come out of nowhere to complement a guy like that such as Danilo Gallinari (an unlikely 38 points to Young’s 33 on Wednesday vs. Boston), then they’ve done a fine job hiding him as first-season head coach Nate Bjorken has the fans pining for Nate McMillan. |
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02-26-21 | Rockets v. Raptors -7 | Top | 111-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Rockets are supposed to go up during missions. These Rockets are going down, in flames. Nine losses in last 10 games, the latest to an opponent with the lowest power rating who makes the fewest three-pointers per game in the NBA. Cleveland had lost 10 straight games going into the match-up, but won it by 16 points. Houston has released DeMarcus Cousins (9.6 ppg, 7.6 reb, 2.4 assists, 20.2 minutes). They keep giving serious minutes to P.J. Tucker, who has produced nine games with 0 points. This is the NBA, fellas. If a non-productive player gets serious minutes, and you start nobody taller than 6’6,” and the only true big you bring off the bench is Justin (Who?) Patton, then you’ll lose a lot, by a lot. |
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02-25-21 | Pelicans v. Bucks -9 | 125-129 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans beat this club last month but they got a couple of breaks which helped in the victory. The Bucks could not throw it in the ocean in that first quarter scoring just 21. The Pelicans were also a bit lucky that the Bucks Khris Middleton had a poor shooting night. Khris was one for 6 from downtown in that loss but is popping at 43% from deep this season. The Bucks have righted their ship. They kicked off this month winning 5 in a row and then they lost 5 straight. They are seeking their 4th consecutive win here and when they beat Minnesota on Tuesday, they did it the right way with 33 assists. Look for Milwaukee to come out ready to play from the opening tip. |
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02-25-21 | Clippers -7.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 94-122 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The Grizzlies own the NBA’s Sophomore Jinx of the Year, Ja Morant. Everybody was waiting for him to return after being injured very early in the season and in hindsight, given the well-known existence of the “jinx,” and NBA coaches’ adjustments on players such as Morant, the anticipation seems to have been quite foolish. The team’s strongest identity is the creation of havoc on defense. That’s nice, but shooting the basketball straight is also important, and when harassing defense nevertheless allows 144 points to New Orleans, and the team can score only 92 points when it gives up only 102 vs. Dallas, and the only opponents it’s been able to beat in the last 12 games have been Charlotte, OKC and Detroit |
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02-24-21 | Spurs v. Thunder -1.5 | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Mismatch of the Day The Spurs will be without DeMar DeRozan for this game because of a death in the family. LaMarcus Aldridge has not played since Feb. 1 with a hip issue but he did practice on Monday. Even if he does play, the rust could be evident. LaMarcus missed a few consecutive games last month and in the game he returned in, he only scored 14 points. Rudy Gay, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Derrick White did not travel for this game because of health and safety concerns. OKC lost Monday but they were playing in the second of a back-to-back game after winning in Ohio. The Thunder have some quality wins on their record against teams like Milwaukee, Phoenix and Brooklyn. When considering schedule strength based on opponents’ records, days of rest, and home and away OKC has had the second toughest schedule in the league according to ESPN. |
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02-24-21 | Warriors v. Pacers -1.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The Pacers are extra-rested after not playing since Feb. 17. By contrast, the Warriors come out to play for a second of back-to-backs on the road. At Golden State on Jan. 12, the Pacers had enough in the tank in a second of back-to-backs to beat rested Warriors 104-95, using a box-and-one defense against Steph Curry most of the game. (Curry had 20 points, 3 assists; he averages 29.9 and 6.2.) Not sure if the Warriors can adjust if the Pacers do it again. T.J. McConnell didn’t play in that first meeting so the Pacers have an extra, fresh guy to be the “1” chasing outside the box. Consider that Golden State is 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games playing on 0 days rest. |
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02-23-21 | Wizards v. Clippers -12 | 116-135 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Clippers are rested following Sunday’s certain loss vs. the Nets They catch the Wizards as Washington plays a second of back-to-backs after Monday’s overtime win at the floundering, semi-depleted Lakers, an effort that included coming back from a 17-point early third-quarter deficit. It’s not who you play, it’s when you play them. Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook each played 44 minutes last night to get their 32 and 33 points. Westbrook attempted all of one (1) three-pointer because even he knows he’s a lousy jump-shooter. |
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02-23-21 | Kings +6.5 v. Nets | Top | 118-127 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Mismatch Sunday night sweep of the West Coast when their largest lay was -4.5 while they went 5-0? Tuesday home game 3,000 miles away from their last victory spot, L.A., laying -7.5 against one of the teams they beat on the trip? Well, now. While covering this spread is certainly within the Brooklyn Ball Hogs’ scope, they are coming off a “mission accomplished” trip. Compared to what they just did out West, this match-up is a nuisance on the work slate. The Kings, on a 0-7 SU, 0-7 ATS skid, nevertheless are pros who want to snap that losing streak. Off two games in Chicago and Milwaukee, they’ve eased into the time zone change while the Nets are suddenly jarred back into it. Consider that Sacramento is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog |
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02-23-21 | Pistons v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 105-93 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day This is a re-match of the Sunday game and again, the Pistons will be without Delon Wright, who is averaging 10 points, 5 boards and 5 assists a night. On Sunday, Orlando won the battle of the boards, held Detroit to 28% from beyond the arc and the Magic were just more aggressive getting to the free-throw line 29 times to 21 for the Pistons. Orlando also should now have an improved rotation as the returning Al-Farouq Aminu started and got some rust off. |
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02-22-21 | Heat -6.5 v. Thunder | 108-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OKC coming off a win in Cleveland last night, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander netting 31 pts. and 9 assists, as C Al Horford rebounded from his terrible night on Friday to score 16 pts, with 8 rebs, and a couple of steals to help the Thunder to a 117-101 victory. Miami also off a victory, an emotional, hard-fought win at Staples Center against the Lakers on Saturday, with Kendrick Nunn scoring 27 pts. on 10 of 14 shooting, and Bam Adebayo had another productive night (16-10-6 with 2 steals), and Jimmy Butler (24 pts., 8 rebs. 5 dimes, 2 steals) was once again the straw that stirs the drink. One setback for Spoelstra’s Heat is that G Tyler Herro was KO’d for the 2nd half of that game with a hip problem and is iffy pending Monday’s shootaround. Considering OKC has covered just 3 of last 12 at the Chesapeake Energy Arena, have to lean to Jimmy-B’s Heat. |
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02-22-21 | Grizzlies +5 v. Mavs | Top | 92-102 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day There could be some rust on the Dallas squad as this is their first game since losing to Portland 8 nights ago. The Mavericks have been on the selfish side as they are 25th in assists this season while Memphis leads the league in that category. Memphis has leveled off a bit since losing only three games in January. The Grizzlies figure to show some resiliency after being crushed Saturday by Phoenix. Memphis had a couple of guys out and they rested a couple of key players. They have shown they can respond after a bad beat this season. They lost to Toronto by 15 earlier this month and then beat Charlotte in the next game. They also were beaten by 31 by New Orleans 6 nights ago and won 24 hours later over OKC. |
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02-21-21 | Thunder -2 v. Cavs | 117-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers – nine straight losses -- make the fewest three-pointers per game in the NBA (9.1) and they have been only too happy to compound that problem by resting one of the best inside scorer/rebounders in the league – Andre Drummond – as they try to get rid of him after the guy has played only 33 games for them since they acquired him from the Pistons. Who makes these decisions? One schedule-ranker out there says OKC has played the second-toughest slate in the NBA to this point. Cleveland represents serious class relief from that grind. |
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02-21-21 | Pistons v. Magic -2 | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the first for the Pistons in consecutive games vs. Orlando and they finish this trip in the Big Easy. They have lost 8 of their last 11 games and could only muster 95 points in the loss on Friday. In that loss to Memphis, they turned it over 10 more times than the Grizzlies. Only Minnesota has won fewer games this season than Detroit. Orlando generally pounds the glass and they defend, holding teams to 111 points a night, 10th overall. They have won 3 of 4 and are shooting for their third win in a row. Nikola Vucevic is having a solid year as he is scoring 24 points a game, grabbing 11 boards and averaging 4 assists. |
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02-21-21 | Wolves v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Don’t look now, but Tom Thibodeau’s New York side has won 3 of 4 and is in playoff position in the East, not something that would mean much to the Lakers or Milwaukee, but for a Knick franchise that hasn’t been to the playoffs in the last 7 seasons and that has won only one playoff series in this century, it’s a big deal. Thibs’ team has been among the top three in the NBA defensively for the entire season (currently 3rd on the year; 1st in last 8 games in defensive rating), and is getting some stronger play from other directions than Julius Randle lately. PG Elfrid Payton has scored 15 ppg and shot 48% while getting 5 rpg and 4 apg over last 8 games, RJ Barrett is at 17 ppg and 6.2 rpg on the season, 6th man Immanuel Quickley has been a surprise (although his shooting has fallen off a bit of late) and the addition of ex-Thibodeau favorite Derrick Rose (11 ppg since arriving from Detroit, played for him in Chicago and Minny). Timberwolves have been winning about once every two weeks (5-23 L28), and Thibodeau might have a bit of emotion against his old employer and snaps 4-game Knick losing streak in series. |
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02-20-21 | Wizards v. Blazers -4 | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washington enters this game 4 games under .500 on the road. Teams can pack it in against the Wizards since they are 28th in the league from downtown. When Washington lost to this club earlier this month they gave up 75 points in the first half and Portland won despite losing to the Bucks 24 hours earlier and despite the fact Damian Lillard shot it at 39% from the floor. This is a pit stop home game for Portland. They just won three on the road, play here, and pack for another 3 games with room service. The Blazers have won 6 in a row, 8 of 10 and twice against Philly. |
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02-19-21 | Pistons v. Grizzlies -5 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day These cannot be pleasant times in Detroit. The team has decided to shut down Blake Griffin until they can move him. The Pistons are 19th or worse in scoring, allowing points, rebounding and assists. In Chicago on Wednesday, the Pistons allowed the Bulls to rally and win. It probably is not a lot of fun playing for Detroit these days. Jerami Grant shot the ball 25 times against Chicago. The rest of the team only got 57 shot attempts. Memphis has some quality wins to boast about against teams like Philly, Brooklyn and Phoenix. They lead the league in assists. In the win against OKC on Wednesday they forced 18 turnovers. Grayson Allen has picked up his production for the Grizzlies scoring his average or better in 5 of the last 6 games including a 22-point outburst on Wednesday. Consider that Detroit is 5-16 ATS in the last 21 meetings vs Memphis |
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02-18-21 | Heat v. Kings +1 | 118-110 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The long, Western excursion of the worst point spread team in the NBA- somebody else’s 8-19-2 ATS Miami Heat -- continues with this second of back-to-backs, off last night’s brutal blowing of a big lead and subsequent overtime loss at Golden State. It’s as if whoever drew up the schedule hates Miami, given that the Kings enter with two rest days and angried up off four straight home losses. Who loses four straight home games after they go 3-1 on an Eastern trip? Only the Kings, right? They should be fully focused and it’s a turnabout situation for when they played at Miami in their own second of back-to-backs on Jan. 30 (w/Heat rested), losing just 105-104. Maybe it’s too obvious and doesn’t factor Sacramento’s habitual screw-up tendencies into the decision, but when the league’s most overrated team drags its losing butt into town 24 hours after the latest non-cover |
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02-18-21 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | 110-96 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Familiarity breeds contempt and these teams may have that feeling since they just played on Tuesday. Toronto’s Kyle Lowry had to exit the game in the third quarter. Look for Milwaukee to be primed to pay back the Raptors for just beating them. The Bucks have to do a better job on Fred VanVleet, who is having a career year and Milwaukee has to play more up-tempo. Look for Khris Middleton to be aggressive after he scored just 11 points Tuesday and had 0 assists. This season he is averaging 20 points, 6 boards and 6 assists. |
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02-17-21 | Pistons +3 v. Bulls | 102-105 | Push | 0 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units An unforgiving February schedule for Chicago -- with Lauri Maarkenen out and Wendell Carter not quite in game-shape after returning from his injury absence -- just got harder with the late mandate to play this game on what had been scheduled as an off-day. The Pistons are probably quite happy to have avoided a Texas trip into disease and icy disaster, with this short jaunt to Chicago in its place. Dwayne Casey is a good coach and playing without Blake Griffin gives him an opportunity to get creative, and to spread minutes around to pros hungry for opportunity. |
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02-17-21 | Rockets v. 76ers -10.5 | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Mismatch of the Day Following an initial uptick period in which the Houston players were happy to be rid of James Harden and determined to show the world that they could compete without him, it appears that the energy level has dropped, opponents have scouted them well, too many guys are injured and the honeymoon period is over. “It’s only gonna get worse before it gets better. Give it time. Whole new system, coaching and players. Let everything sink in,” says one seemingly level-headed observer. The absence of Christian Wood didn’t seem like it would be followed by road losses by 20, 29, 22 and 12 points at losing teams Charlotte, New Orleans, New York and Washington. But they were, with home losses to San Antonio and Miami thrown in for good measure. Consider that Houston is 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games playing on 1 days rest. |
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02-17-21 | Knicks -4 v. Magic | Top | 89-107 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day When teams play a lot of one-on-one basketball, things can go awry. Orlando is not only 27th in assists but only two clubs put up fewer points nightly. Orlando’s Cole Anthony is gone and Evan Fournier, James Ennis and Al-Farouq Aminu are all iffy for this game. Break up the Knicks. They have won 3 of 5 and 5 of 7 and they are finally putting points on the board. With center Mitchell Robinson sidelined with a hand issue, New York has been forced to go small and it has worked of late. In the Monday win over Atlanta the New York combination of guards accounted for 57 points. Consider that Orlando is 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog. |
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02-16-21 | Blazers -5 v. Thunder | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Oklahoma City just shocked the Milwaukee Bucks but they caught a tired team that was at the end of a 6-game road trip. OKC is in the bottom third of the league in allowing points and only 4 teams overall score fewer points nightly. This is a ‘payback’ game for the Blazers. They lost to OKC last month but there were excuses. They were playing the second of a back-to-back game and Damian Lillard had a poor shooting night going just 8 for 22 from the field. Consider that Portland is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. |
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02-15-21 | Nets -4 v. Kings | 136-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Second of back-to-backs for the Kings after going at it vs. Western Conference rival Memphis last night in a battle of wannabe #8 West seeds clawing at that bottom rung. The rested Nets were probably in their hotel rooms watching it. It’s the first of back-to-backs before Brooklyn flies overnight to Phoenix, where the road trip becomes testier in a Suns-Clippers-Lakers ending. |
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02-15-21 | Hawks v. Knicks +2 | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta has lost 6 of 7 and the win in this time frame came against a team that was playing the second of a back-to-back game. When Atlanta lost to the Knicks early in the season they had no answer for Julius Randle. The Knicks have won 4 of 6 and one of the losses in that span was by a bucket to Miami. New York can throw a lot of guards at a team and that should help the play making factor too. In the win over Houston on Saturday, starting point guard Elfrid Payton had 15 on 7 for 11 shooting. Reserve point guards Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley combined for 38 points, 5 boards and 5 assists. |
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02-14-21 | Lakers -3 v. Nuggets | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Knockout of the Day The Lakers hit the road after they had mucho trouble with Oklahoma City at home, twice, then didn’t put Memphis away until late. Therefore, they will go to Denver and lose, because they are allegedly "struggling"? Maybe, but we wouldn’t bet on it. Remember – the Lakers scrimmage against opponents like OKC. They tend to play for real against the opponents they really need to measure themselves against. When they meet those opponents on the road, they don’t need to win by as much to get the money for their backers. With Utah hot-hot-hot, leading the West at 21-7, where are these Lakers? Ho-hum, a relative afterthought, a half-game behind, 21-6, poised to take over when the peak-too-soon Jazz begin falling to Earth. |
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02-14-21 | Bucks -11.5 v. Thunder | Top | 109-114 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Mismatch of the Day Before the Bucks lost a second straight game (and didn’t cover the spread) at Utah, we noted that they were 36-18 ATS when coming off a loss the last two-plus seasons. But we didn’t pick them to cover at Utah because Utah is too good. The "trend" didn’t take into account who they were playing. Tonight, they play off two straight losses and the opponent is not good. However, the opponent is 14-10 ATS, not bad. But most of that "trend" for OKC has been compiled covering road games at larger numbers against opponents who don’t take the Thunder seriously (they’re 11-3 ATS on the road). Off two straight losses (to 21-7 and 16-9 opponents), the Bucks will take them seriously. Also consider that Milwaukee is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. |
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02-14-21 | Wolves v. Raptors -8 | 116-112 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Minnesota will be without D’Angelo Russell for this game and that is a big problem for the Wolves. The point guard is averaging 19 and 5 dimes a night. Ricky Rubio took his place in the loss Wednesday and Ricky has some explaining to do. He only had 5 points in the game and Ricky only had 5 points Friday in the loss to Charlotte. The Wolves come to Tampa Bay at the wrong time as Toronto will be focused after losing to Boston on Thursday by 14 points. They had won 5 of 6 going into the Thursday outing and they have had time for that loss to set in. The Raptors share the ball and they are in the top 10 in the league in scoring. This is a game they need with the next pair against Milwaukee. |
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02-13-21 | Heat v. Jazz -5 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Utah is coming off last night’s signature victory over Milwaukee, but not to worry, as the Jazz are not only 17-1 SU in their last 18, they are 16-2 against the points and have covered 3 of their first 4 chances playing the second night of back-to-back games. Jazz have made 18 treys per game over the past 15 and shot 41% from long range. Still, it’s never easy in the NBA, and Miami has won 4 straight, with Jimmy Butler starting to warm up (23 ppg, 9 rpg, 9 apg in his last 7 games). Utah has won 11 in a row against Eastern Conference teams, with a 10-0-1 spread mark, so all things considered, just lay the points. |
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02-13-21 | 76ers v. Suns +1 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Told ya’ the 76ers would not get revenge in Portland. Merely sticking Ben Simmons into a game against an opponent that beat them the last time they met is not the way it works. Here, Philadelphia tackles another winning team out West. The Sixers are 11-2 home, 7-6 on the road. Milwaukee, who they lead by 2 games atop the East, and who has a +9.5 scoring differential (compared to Philly’s +3.8), couldn’t win here earlier in the week. So, why should Philly win against a 15-9 SU and ATS home side that has been playing consistently good defense, contrary to the ol’ Suns basketball brand? |
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02-12-21 | Bucks v. Jazz -3 | 115-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s a match-up of the teams with the NBA’s two highest power ratings. Utah is the hottest team in the league, of course. But they figure to be laying a trey or more against a high-quality foe, never their best scenario. Bucks off a loss: 36-18 ATS since beginning of 2018-19 season. But how many times were they playing a road game against the NBA’s best-record team that entered the game 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS last 17 games? Aha. Not once. |
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02-12-21 | Thunder v. Nuggets -11.5 | Top | 95-97 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day The Nuggets ended a three-game losing streak by pummeling bottom-dweller Cleveland. Another bottom-dwelling foe makes the climb to 5,280 feet elevation preparing to be swallowed by a still-hungry bottom feeder that will take them seriously, unlike the Lakers, who use a team like OKC to work on their games and practice winning the close ones. Off two overtime losses vs. the scrimmaging Lakers, this doesn’t seem like a good spot for the depth-shy visitor. Consider that Oklahoma City is 1-12 ATS in the last 13 meetings. |
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02-12-21 | Pelicans +3 v. Mavs | 130-143 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mavericks delivered as promised on Wednesday night, dropping to 1-9 ATS on their home floor winning and failing to cover vs. Atlanta, pretty much as expected although it would have nice for the Hawks to get the straight-up win and not lose by 1 point. After scoring 120 points twice in their first 15 games, the Pelicans have scored 123 or more four times in their last nine. “I’ve had zero to do with that,” says head coach Stan Van Gundy. We believe that! “Our guys have just gotten comfortable playing together. We’re making plays for each other. We’re getting higher quality shots.” Alrighty, then. Off a losing visit to an Eastern Conference team (Chicago) in which the Bulls had two quarters of 40+ points (Hello? From what butt was that pulled?), the Law of Averages -- considering Dallas has the worst 3-point percentage in the league -- should swing the visitors’ way tonight. |
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02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers +5.5 | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philly won its 11th game in its last 14 starts at Sacramento on Tuesday, with Joel Embiid scoring 25 pts. and grabbing 17 boards. Embiid has scored 34 ppg and taken 10.4 rpg while shooting 56% in his last 9 games, including scoring 37 a week ago in Philly against Portland in a 121-105 home loss to the Blazers. Portland was without Damian Lillard as well as previously injured CJ McCollum (still out indefinitely). Lillard has scored 32 ppg in his last 12, and has dished 8 assists a game, and Gary Trent heads four other Blazers contributing DDs. One of those is backup C Enes Kanter, who outboarded Embiid 18-5 in the win in Philly to lead the Blazers to a 53-37 edge off the glass. Sixers will be looking for revenge, but number seems high. |
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02-11-21 | Magic v. Warriors -7.5 | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando training room looking like a M*A*S*H unit these days, with injuries to Gordon, Fournier, Anthony, Fultz, Aminu and Carter-Williams stripping HC Steve Clifford’s dance card. Aminu and Fournier could be available for this one, but the Magic are just 3-13 since promising start through first week of January. Golden State returning home after splitting a pair in Dallas against the Mavs and then another set with the Spurs in San Antonio. Now the Warriors have 4 straight at the Chase Center beginning with very beatable Orlando. Steph Curry has been rocking since Christmas and has scored 32 or more in 5 straight games, averaging 37 ppg and shooting 58% overall and 50% from beyond the arc in his last 5, and he’s still getting some nice help from Kelly Oubre Jr. (20 ppg L5) and Andrew Wiggins. Warriors covered 4 straight as chalk; Magic dropped 6 of L7 as a dog. |
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02-10-21 | Pelicans -2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-129 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The Bulls will be without two 7-footers, Lauri Maarkenen and Wendell Carter. Otto Porter has been out for the last four games, too. Are you excited about backing a starting group of Patrick Williams, Daniel Gafford, Coby (I Barely Played One Season of College Basketball) White, Denzel Valentine and Zach LaVine, with Thaddeus Young, Cristiano Felicio, Ryan Arcidiacono, Garrett Temple and Tomas Satoransky coming off the bench? If so, then why? Consider that New Orleans is 23-8 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. |
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02-10-21 | Hawks +4 v. Mavs | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We thought Atlanta would beat this Mavericks team at home last week. Didn’t happen. They sat Trae Young on us with no notice given. Is this a mulligan we can hit straight and true? Dallas has been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA so far at 10-15 ATS. The bulk of that “disappointment” has occurred on this floor, where the Mavericks are 1-8 ATS laying points. If Atlanta can’t make this situation work – three days off since they last played, the better to target revenge from only one week ago – then we can just dislike them intensely and wish them the worst, until the next time they look like the right side. |
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02-09-21 | Celtics v. Jazz -6 | Top | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The hottest team in the NBA takes the court for the first time since a 3-0 road trip raised the recent run to 15-1 SU, 14-2 ATS since Jan. 8. Utah is 19-5, a half-game ahead of the Lakers for best record in the West, and the league. They are peaking too soon, but is the peak still peaking or is the tail-off is ready to start? With the Celtics adding Jaylen Brown to their absentee list on top of Marcus Smart, perhaps it’s a reason for the Jazz to continue with the peaking. Without those two the floor for Boston, the Suns shot just 27.6% from three-point range yet still beat the Celtics by 9 points. The next time Utah shoots as low as 27.6% from three-point range will be the first time this season. |
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02-09-21 | Rockets +6 v. Pelicans | 101-130 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last night, the Rockets probably set a record for most late and failed close-out attempts on a rookie three-point shooter who has the lowest release point in the league. LaMelo Ball killed them because they let him. Now, brother Lonzo has his opportunity and if he was watching Houston’s terrible defensive rotations last night during the Pelicans’ bye, then he’ll be excited about the possibility of having himself a great shooting night, too. But Houston guards John Wall and Eric Gordon sat last night. They don’t do back-to-backs. Guess they don’t make enough money to extend themselves. But with the experience of those two back on the floor tonight, Houston’s defense can better extend. Sorry, Lonzo. |
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02-09-21 | Nets v. Pistons OVER 229.5 | Top | 111-122 | Win | 100 | 3 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NBA Total of the Week Consider that the over is 14-3 in Nets last 17 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game, 9-2 in Nets last 11 games following a ATS loss, 13-3 in Nets last 16 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game, 13-3 in Nets last 16 games as a favorite, 16-5 in Nets last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, and 19-7 in Nets last 26 overall. While the over is 19-7 in Pistons last 26 games playing on 2 days rest, 8-3 in Pistons last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, and 16-6 in Pistons last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. |
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02-08-21 | Bucks v. Nuggets +4 | Top | 125-112 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Interesting: Not Milwaukee’s 9-40 SU record in Denver lifetime. That’s not interesting at all, just a multi-decades compilation involving many former players now collecting social security. What’s interesting is that Milwaukee was 0-2 against the Nuggets last season, by 12 and 14 points. They hit Mile High City shaking the back-to-back loser dust of Cleveland off them, with no margin for error. They can’t just kill the Nuggets for revenge simply because they want to. The Nuggets are home off two road losses with plenty of confidence in the match-up based on last year’s positive results. Consider that Denver is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. |
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02-08-21 | Wolves +10 v. Mavs | 122-127 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Who is more overrated? The Mavericks or the T’Wolves? It’s the Mavericks, 10-14 ATS to the T’Wolves’ 11-11-1 ATS. Dallas is at the bottom of the league in three point percentage (33.8%) and yet they keep firing away from out there, 37 times per game – and a lot more than 37 times in each of their two non-covers vs. Golden State on Thursday and Saturday, which defies all logic given Golden State’s lack of inside players. |
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02-07-21 | Celtics +3 v. Suns | 91-100 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston G Jaylen Brown’s sore knee will force him to miss his second straight game, but not sure the oddsmakers haven’t over-corrected here. Phoenix is just 2-3 SU L5 at the Talking Stick, and rank just 18th in net rating over the last 15 games (Celtics 6th). Boston has worked through injuries before this season, and it’s not as if the Suns are an intact unit, with starting F Jae Crowder and contributors Dario Saric and Cam Payne out or doubtful. Would rather take it with Boston. |
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02-07-21 | Wizards v. Hornets +2 | 97-119 | Win | 100 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that Washington is 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. While Charlotte is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog, 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games playing on 1 days rest, 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog, and 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. |
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02-07-21 | Heat v. Knicks +6 | Top | 109-103 | Push | 0 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Second of back-to-backs for the Knicks following yesterday’s 110-99 win vs. end-of long-road-trip Portland. Miami flies up with rest following a lousy homestand that they managed to close out well with a 122-95 win vs. Washington (with Westbrook playing for the Wizards after they’d lost to the Wizards with Westbrook resting two nights earlier!). One win against Washington probably doesn’t solve Miami’s issues and as favorite, they can’t be in “nobody expected us to do this!” mode. Knicks don’t win three in a row very often but it’s a fact that it has happened at least once in the last 10 years – last month, actually. Miami: 7-14-1 ATS, the NBA’s worst percentage. |
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02-06-21 | Grizzlies +1.5 v. Pelicans | 109-118 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s a home invasion by the Grizzlies, who were in the Big Easy yesterday casing the joint while Van Gundy & Co. were battling and beating the Pacers at the wire in Indiana before taking a late-night flight back to New Orleans. The Pelicans aren’t always comfortable in their offense, and the Grizzlies have a way of disrupting the opposing offensive flow with deflections and steals. Fresh legs can propel the NBA’s steals-leading team to a fun night of transition buckets |
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02-06-21 | Warriors v. Mavs -4 | Top | 132-134 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NBA Game of the Week That home invasion situation against back-to-backing Dallas was certainly beneficial to the Warriors here on Thursday night, wasn’t it? It didn’t matter that they were lacking in frontcourt personnel. What mattered most is that the Warriors’ Kelly Oubre shot 14-for-21, including 7-for-10 on three-pointers. What mattered almost as much was Dallas firing 50 of their 92 shots from behind the three-point line against an opponent that wasn’t really prepared to stop them inside. If Rick Carlisle is half the coach we think he is, then he, hopefully, is making his players aware that they are the world’s biggest fools for playing that way, or telling himself that he’s the world’s worst coach and will prepare them better next time, which is this time. “This was a difficult lesson,” he said afterwards. No kidding! Put your learning to work! Consider that Golden State is 25-51-3 ATS in their last 79 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. |
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02-06-21 | Spurs +2 v. Rockets | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 10 Unit NBA Game of the Year Christian Wood scored 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting for Houston the other night before rolling his right ankle in the third quarter. He then left the arena in a wheelchair. Losing one big doesn’t have to harm a team in the short-term, and the Spurs haven’t covered the last three and LaMarcus Aldridge will be out for a while. There isn’t much veteran presence in his absence. But the last time the teams met, coach Popovich said that four or five of his Spurs players were "out to lunch" when a more depleted Rockets team beat them here 103-91 (Cousins, Wall, Gordon all out, Oladipo yet to show). Ya’ think they’ll be more focused for the Rockets this time around? Consider that Houston is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 1 days rest. |
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02-06-21 | Nuggets v. Kings +3.5 | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kings are riding an up-curve in their ongoing match-ups vs. the Nuggets. Last season, a bad one for them and a good one for Denver, they lost by only 7 and 5 points, and won in overtime. This season, they’ve already beaten the Nuggets twice outright as the underdog -- in Denver on opening night in overtime, then by 10 points at home six days later. With these competitive outings under their belt vs. the guys in Denver uniforms, Luke Walton’s bunch certainly won’t lack for confidence, which will be further buoyed by the five wins in their last six games. Do the Nuggets have what it takes to bear down and deal with this new nuisance? They are coming off a season-low 93 points at the Lakers, a very good defensive team. The possibility for an offensive bounce-back exists but can they get enough scoreboard separation if shooting guards Gary Harris and P.J. Dozier are out? |
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02-05-21 | Pistons +8 v. Suns | 92-109 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It really is a shame that Detroit’s Monday game at Denver was postponed and a great anti-Pistons situation couldn’t occur when they played at Utah the next night. For this, they’ve had two days to prep, in town Wednesday while the Suns were losing that night in New Orleans. Still no Dario Saric or Damion Jones for Phoenix. Forwards Frank Kaminsky and Cameron Johnson were -17 and -25 plus-minus in the loss at New Orleans, as they should be. There are enough points available to make the lousy road dog a tempting commodity in this spot. |
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02-05-21 | Wizards +6.5 v. Heat | 95-122 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite a 3-8 SU mark last 11 against Miami, Washington has compiled a 7-2 spread mark the last 9 against the Heat, including 5 straight covers at American Airlines Arena. That includes the Wizards 103-100 win at Miami on Wednesday night (their 2nd cover in 2 games vs. the Heat this season), when Washington G Bradley Beal scored 32 pts., leading his team to a win despite the fact that Russell Westbrook was rested. Look for another razor-thin, make-and-a-miss decision in this one. |
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02-05-21 | Jazz v. Hornets +8.5 | 138-121 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hornets fell to 0-3 vs. the 76ers this young season on Wednesday night. Philly is just not a good match-up for them, as one could easily surmise by envisioning Cody Zeller being posterized by Joel Embiid for 31 minutes. For this, the home dog is rested and catches the Jazz playing the second of back-to-backs, coming out of Atlanta last night. Hot, first-place teams like Jazz can overcome negative situations against habitual also rans like the Hornets. But Charlotte’s Gordon Heyward and LaMelo Ball present some challenges that didn’t exist when the Jazz won here (and home) with rest against the Hornets last season. The Hornets’ new trait of hanging in there in second halves can serve them well against the second of back-to-backers. |
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02-05-21 | Pelicans v. Pacers -1 | 114-113 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indiana just 6-8 SU in their last 14 games, but road wins have been hard to come by for New Orleans, which has dropped 7 of its last 9 on the road SU and failed to cover the last 3. That Pelican record thanks in large part to poor defensive efforts that have also correlated to a 4-0 “over” mark in L4 away from their nest. That being said, Pel F Zion Williamson developing into a force, scoring 26 ppg and shooting 62% over his last 12 games, and he’s receiving ample support from F Brandon Ingram and Gs Eric Bledsoe. Still feel Pacers hold edge and number seems a bit thin with talent like Domantas Sabonis (26 ppg, 11 rpg, 63% L5Gs) and Malcolm Brogdon (22 ppg L13) on board and Jeremy Lamb shooting 45% from beyond the arc and scoring 13 ppg since returning from his ACL rehab. |
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02-04-21 | Rockets +3.5 v. Grizzlies | 115-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Memphis just had its 7-game win streak snapped in Indiana on Tuesday in a 134-116 setback, while Houston similarly is coming off a loss at Oklahoma City last night that ended the Rockets’ 6-game win skein. Houston G John Wall was rested against the Thunder last night, likely in anticipation that he would be good to go against Griz’ PG Ja Morant in this one. Memphis has been missing C Jonas Valanciunas and G Grayson Allen due to Covid protocols for a few games, and Morant almost reinjured his bad ankle on Monday and made just 2 of 10 shots on Tuesday. Feel Houston the more talented club (Wall, Oladipo, Eric Gordon, DeMarcus Cousins all AS-level in their careers and Christian Wood will be there soon). |
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02-04-21 | Blazers +10 v. 76ers | 121-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia is coming off a 118-111 win at Charlotte last night, led by Joel Embiid’s 34 pts., while Portland was off last night. Blazers are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 against the points the last few years against Philly, but things have changed with the Trail Blazers lineup compromised by injuries, while the maturing Sixers are fighting for the best record in the East. That being said, Philly has yet to cover (0-4) this season playing the 2nd of back-to-back games, despite Sixer trio of Embiid, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris each playing in 3 of the 4 chances. |
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02-03-21 | Celtics -108 v. Kings | 111-116 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After the Celtics concluded their homestand with a 3-point loss to the Lakers, they had two open dates before last night’s opener of a five-game Western road trip at Golden State. The Kings, who won at New Orleans on Monday after being in Florida all last week, are lagging behind the visitor in re-acclimating to the West Coast, which they do coming off the high of a rare, winning road trip (3-1). Sacramento beats Boston occasionally: six times in the last 25 meetings. Occasionally = not often, eh? |
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02-03-21 | Wolves v. Spurs -8 | Top | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day The Spurs went 1-1 in Minnesota recently in a back-to-back. They scored 88 points losing the second. Popovich can never seem to get this team to play well in the second night of a back-to-back. He’s always using it as an excuse. It’s like he hates the situations, doesn’t believe they should exist and doesn’t care, turning them into write-offs before games that offer more prep time with more energy on tap. Hey, whatever "spurs" him and his team to victory, right? San Antonio has been home since early last week. They’ve had a day in between the second straight big-margin loss vs. Memphis, and this. With an allegedly "offensive minded" roster, the T’Wolves rank #28 in points per possession |
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02-03-21 | Rockets -7 v. Thunder | 87-104 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rockets are rolling against ordinary opposition since relieving themselves of James Harden. OKC’s -8.3 scoring differential indicates that they are less than ordinary. Their -16.8 scoring differential on their home floor is bizarre, but it is what it is. The 136-106 win by Houston against them on Monday was what it was, including a ***BEST BET winner for us. The handwriting is on the wall. “We have a coachable group, we have a mature group who want what’s best, not just for them but everybody in the group,” Rockets’ head coach Stephen Silas said after Monday’s rout. The OKC group is not a mature group. It’s young and re-building, which is why Billy Donovan wanted out. |