Browns +10 3.3% play 

Cowboys +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Rams +4.5 2.2% play 

Jaguars +5.5 2.2% play 

Patriots +6 3.3% play 

Titans +3.5 2.2% play 

Broncos +6 5.5% MAX POD

Colts +8 2.2% play 

Falcons +3.5 2.5% play 

PATRIOTS +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Bears +3 -120 3.5% play 

Bengals -3 -115 3% play

Patriots +4 3.3% play 

Rams +5 2.2% play

Dolphins +3.5 -120 2.5% play

Titans +3 3.3% play 

Colts +4.5 2.2% play 

Chiefs +3 -125 buy 1/2 point

Chiefs -120 5.5% NFL POD

49ers +3 3.5% play at -115

Cowboys +4 2.2% play 

I think the Cowboys will be able to move the ball on the 49ers.  We saw it quite a bit last week with the Seahawks a week ago.  This is also a fade of Brock Purdy who is getting far too much credit in my opinion.  He's going to be in a game here and he made some horrific throws against Seattle that he completely got away with, which I don't think will happen against the Cowboys who ranked #1 in defensive TO%.  Cowboys also lost to this team at home in the playoffs last year and would like nothing more than to return the favor.  49ers have faced a weaker schedule across the board, and they don't necessarily have a great home field advantage.  Cowboys have significant advantages in net 3rd down %, net red zone TD %, special teams DVOA, QB experience.  

Bengals +6 3.3% play 

I just don't see how this is not a close score.  The Bengals lost 1 game all season by more than a TD and it was against the Browns in a weird game.  I understand they have some serious issues on the OL, but I think that is getting over blown by the media.  Joe Burrow is used to playing with a poor OL to begin with.  His receivers should have a huge advantage against this secondary.  Buffalo against playoff teams this year have not won by more than 4 points.   They 4-2 vs. playoff teams and their wins have come by 3, 3, 3, and 4 points, while they lost by 3 and lost by 2.  I think the Bengals have something to prove and would not be shocked if they pull an upset here. 

Giants +3 -115 5.5% NFL POD

Jaguars +3 -125 3.5% play 

Lions +5 2.2% play 

Rams +6 2.2% play 

Patriots +7.5 3.3% play 

Titans +7 -120 3% play 

Vikings +3.5 -115 2.5% play 

Bucs -3 -125 5.5% NFL POD

Colts +3.5 2.2% plau

Dolphins -3 2.5% play

Jets -1.5 2.2% play 

Bucs +3.5 1.1% free play 

JETS -1 5.5% max nfl pod

Bears +9 2.2% play 

Seahawks +3.5 3% 

Bucs +3.5 3.3% play 

Panthers +4 2.2% play 

Browns +6 2.2% play 

Bengals are 26th in EPA run defense, and are 2-4 vs. top 10 rushing offenses.  Browns rank 6th in epa run offense, and Watson should look a lot better in his second start.  Bengals off a huge win against the Chiefs to solidify their playoff run last year.  This is a bit of a let down spot, while the Browns probably feel like they still have a shot to make the playoffs and have owned the Bengals winning 8 of their last 9.  I think this divisional game comes down to a field goal. 

Bucs -3 -115 2.5% play 

Dolphins +4.5 2.2% play 

Titans +4.5 3.3% play 

Jets +3 1.1% Free NFL Pick 

82-53 Last 135 Free NFL Picks! 

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Falcons pk 5.5% MAX POD

Patriots +4 2.2% play 

Cardinals +3 2.4% play

Jaguars +3.5 1.1% play 

Bucs -3 -120 3.5% play 

Titans +7.5  / Jets -1 3.3% teaser

Patriots +3 -120 buy 1/2 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Short week definitely is an edge for the more experienced head coach, and Bill Bellechick already admitted that he was preparing for the Vikings during the bye before the Jets game, which I guess makes sense since he's very much familiar with my Jets.  Vikings have some injury issues as they lose their LT to another concussion, the secondary is banged up  and could be exposed here against the Patriots who rank #4 in explosive passing offense.  Patriots have a big edge in special teams and have a top 5 pass defense.  Vikings vs. top 10 pass defenses this season are 1-2 losing to Cowboys and Eagles, but their one win was against the Bills who they should have lost to last week.  Kirk Cousins typically also struggles when he's out of his routine, and this is playing at night + on Thanksgiving. 

Cowboys -1.5 3.3% play 

Jets +3.5 3.3% play 

Colts +7 5.5% MAX POD

Texans +3.5 -120 by 1/2 point for 20 cents. 2.5 %play

Commanders +11 2.2% play 

Colts +4.5 2.2% play

Browns +3.5 2.2% play 

Saints +1.5 2.2% play 

Cardinals -1.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Commanders +3.5 -115 4% play 

Panthers +7.5 -115 3% play 

Bengals -3 -120 2.5% play 

Seahawks -3 5.5% MAX POD

Steelers +10.5 1.1% Free Play 

I think the Steelers are used to defending mobile QB's having to face Lamar Jackson each year.  The strength of the Steelers is definitely stopping the run meanwhile the Eagles seem to take their foots off the break in the second half.  Unless Kenny Pickett decides to throw 2+ interceptions I see the Steelers hanging in this one.

78-50 ATS Last 128 Free NFL Picks +41.37%

Panthers +4 2.2% play 

49ers +1 2.2% play 

Colts +3 -125 3.5% play

Browns +7 5.5% MAX POD

Giants +3.5 1.1% Free Play 

LIONS +7 3.3% PLYA 

Saints +3 -120 2.5 %play buy 1/2

Broncos +4 2.2% play 

Dolphins +3 5.5% MAX POD

Giants +6 2.2% pay 

Patriots +3 -120 buy 1/2 3.5% play

Raiders +7.5 -120 3% play 

Panthers +7 3% play 

Browns +1.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Patriots +9.5 2.2 %play 

Seahawks +3.5 3.3 %play 

Saints +3.5 2.2% play 

Bengals -3.5 2.2 %play 

Packers +1 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Vikings -2 2.2% play 

Washington +7 -125 buy 1/2 3.5% play 

Browns -4 2.2% play 

Titans +10 2.2% play 

Cardinals +6 2.2% play 

Panthers +2.5 5.5% NFL POD

Dolphins +3.5 1.1% Free Play

This is too many points for two even teams.  I'm also doubting the Ravens offensive line and Lamar is going to have to make passes in this game against man coverage, which is something he was unable to do against the Dolphins last year, and I don't see the weapons for him to make them this year. 

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Jets + 7 buy 1/2 3% play

Chargers +4.5 2.2% play 

Seahawks +7 -130 buy 1/2 2.5% play 

Giants +5.5 3% play 

Steelers +7 2.2% play 

Falcons +5.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Lions +6 2.2% play 

49ers +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Chiefs -6.5 -130 3%