Chiefs -1 2.2% play 

Tampa Bucs -2.5 -114 5.5% NFL POD

Just who have the Rams beaten of late that is impressive?  They played very poorly down the stretch and were fortunate and went 3-5 vs. playoff teams this year with 2 wins coming against a Cardinal team that was obviously having issues down the stretch.  They also beat Tampa in LA, but Tampa out gained them, and had a monster game on deck as Brady was set to return to New England.  Stafford played out of his mind on third down in that game, and I don’t know that I see him playing perfectly again.  If he does we tip our hat, and take the loss.

I think Tampa has some value here, because there is still this idea that the offense is going to struggle without Brown, and Godwin, but there are plenty of weapons left in Tampa.  Rumors Lenoard Fournette will return, and it looks like both Wirfs/Jensen will play in this game along the offensive line.  Brady at home won’t be phased by the Rams, while Stafford just won his first playoff game in his career.  Stafford had issues with turnovers all year and they go against a Bucs team that ranked 7th in TO/drive while the Rams were 20th in offensive TO’s/drive.  If there is going to be a turnover that impacts this game it’s going to be on the Rams side.

49ers +5.5 3.3% play 

Titans -3 -125 4% play

Titans will be the healthiest they have ever been all season it seems, and they have the far better coach with an extra week of rest playing at home.  The Titans played and beat three very good teams at home, the 49ers, Bills and Chiefs who are all still in the playoffs, but two of those games were wins by exactly 3 points, and 4 of the Bengals 6 losses were by exactly 3 points.  I think the Titans are the better team by the numbers and they have faced a tougher schedule.

The Titans blend of opponent epa run and pass defenses faced rank 15.11 on average, while the Bengals have faced an average blend of 20.33.  Titans vs. top 15 pass defense went 4-3, but 3-1 at home, and they were 8-2 vs. top 15 run defense, for which the Bengals rank 10th and 14th.  They also faced 5 teams in the top 15 in both and went 3-2 in those games.  The Bengals on the other hand only faced 6 top pass defenses, went 3-3, and only 5 top run defenses and went 5-0.  The Titans rank top 15 in both, and the Bengals have not seen a team all year ranked in the top 15 in both categories.  The only comparable measure I see is the fact that the Bengals went 0-3 vs. top 10 success rate defenses scoring only 16, 23, and 16 points.

Let’s move on over to the defensive side of the ball, and again the Titans have faced a slightly tougher schedule 17.02 average blend compared to 17.4.  Bengals only have a top 15 passing offense, and the Titans defense has gone 4-2 vs. those teams on the year.  The Bengals defense has faced only 5 top 10 15 passing offenses, and went 2-3, and they were just 2-4 vs. top 15 rushing offenses.  Titans rank top 15 in both epa pass and run, and while it’s only 14th and 13th you have to factor in time missed by some of their star players like AJ Brown, Julio Jones, and Derrick Henry who are all back for this game.  Only 11% of Tannehill’s drop backs this year happened with that trio on the field.  Bengals also faced two teams that were top 15 in both categories like the Titans and went 0-2.  The closest opponent would be the 49ers who they lost to. 

The Bengals also have not handled winning big games this year well.  That makes a ton of sense for a team that is young.  After their big win against division rival Steelers earlier in the season they got blown out by the Chargers at home the next game. After their first win against the Ravens they lost to the Jets, and then after clinching their division by beating the Chiefs they lost to the Browns to end the season.  They just ended a 31 year playoff win drought, and have to go on the road and face a very under rated Titans team.

Rams -3 -115 3% play

At the end of the day do you really trust Kliff Kingsbury to win a playoff game? McVeigh 8-1-1 ATS and 9-1 SU vs. Cardinals.  This drop to -3 to me is all about JJ Watt being announced in and the Cardinals success on the road.  I honestly don’t know how healthy Watt actually is and if he can have an impact on the game.

Cardinals did beat the Rams week 4 against these Rams with Watt, but they also had Hopkins at WR who they won’t have here.  The Rams also had just beaten Tampa Bay and Tom Brady the week before they played the Cardinals, so I think there was a bit of a hangover impact in that game.  Cardinals have been great on the road, but honestly, I was not that impressed with their win at Dallas, and we saw what Dallas did yesterday.  They also lost 12-30 at Detroit, and with the division on the line lost to a bad Seattle team the last week of the season.  The Rams on the other hand also did not play well down the stretch, but they found ways to still get the win with 5 of their last 6 before losing to a very good 49ers team the last week of the season. 

49ers +3.5 -115 5.5% NFL POD E

Right now you can get +102 for +3 on the 49ers, if you wait long enough I suspect a +3.5 may pop at your book.  That's what I'm doing here, but righ tnow you can buy the half and grab the -115.

First of all the 49ers come from the much tougher division with 3 of the 4 teams in the playoffs, and the worst team being Seattle.  Each NFC West team played the AFC East 1x, all games were on the road, and the NFC West went 3-1 SU & ATS with margin of cover of 10.67 points.

Both teams had some key injuries throughout the year that impacted their teams so I’m not going to harp on the Cowboys injuries or the 49ers as they both had to go through adversity to get here.  Both teams went 4-4 vs. team’s with a +0.1 or more ypp differential, but it’s worth noting that all 4 of the 49ers losses came against top 10 run defenses in that cycle, and the Cowboys rank 20th in epa run defense, 16th in rushing defense dvoa.

49ers and Kyle Shanahan are built off their zone running scheme that operates on misdirection, speed, and RB with great natural ability to hit the correct hole.  This is a bad match up against an aggressive defense with speed like the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys could have some stops for loss, but overall the 49ers are going to be able to move the ball here.  The 49ers vs. bad run defenses (outside of the top 15) went 7-1 averaged 29.6 ppg, with a margin of victory of 12.42 points, and their only loss was by 2 against the top seeded Cowboys.

Much can be said about the 49ers pass defense as well that ranks 23rd in epa, and 16th in dvoa.  Cowboys when facing a bad pass defense went 8-2 this year, they averaged 36.8 ppg, with a margin of victory of 22.8 ppg, but in that sample is the horrible NFC East opponents including covid issues, and an Eagles team that rested all their players the last week of the season when the Cowboys put up 50+ points.  I think the Cowboys will get some points here for sure, but that’s also why I played 49ers over.  It’s also worth noting that 49ers pass defense has had issues, but their strength of opponent passing teams is very tough.  On average they faced 15th ranked passing offense when we blend passing dvoa and epa.  Compare that with the weakness of the Cowboys defense which faced an average run offense ranking 17.54.

Raiders +6 2.2% play 

Chargers -3 3.3% play 

49ers +3.5 5.5% POD

Dolphins +6.5 1.1% play

Vikings -4 2.2% play 

Cowboys -3.5 1% 

Vikings +13 2.2% play 

Bengals +4 5.5% NFL POD

Giants +7 -120 buy 1/2 point 3% 

Washington +6 2.2% 

Washington +10 2% 

Ravens +7 1% play 

Vikings +3.5 4.5% / Vikings +155 1% 

Browns +7.5 3.3% plya 

Titans +3.5 2.2% 

Browns +3 2.2% play 

Lions +13 1% 

Panthers +14 2.2% play 

Chiefs -3 -120 2.5% play 

Rams +3 3.3% play 

gANTS +9.5 2.2% PLAY 

Washington +7 -125 1% play 

Chargers +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Falcons +11 2% play 

TEXANS +10 1% PLAY 

Vikings +3.5 1% free play 

Rams -1 5.5% MAX POD

Chargers -2.5 2.2% play 

Saints +7 2.2% play 

Raiders +7.5 3.3% play

Lions +3 1.1% play 

Texans +10.5 3.3% play 

Saints +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

COLTS +7.5 1% PLAY

49ers +3.5 3.3% play 

PACKERS -3 1% 

Saints +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

49ers MAX 5.5% NFL POD 

Panthers +3.5 3.3% play 

Falcons +6 1% play 

Giants +3 3% play

Saints +4.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Dolphins +14.5 buy hook 1.2% play 

Packers +6.5 2% play 

Colts +4 5.5% NFL POD

Texans +18 1.1% 

Eagles +3 3.3% play 

Washington Football Team +8.5 2.2% play 

Bengals +6.5 3.3% play 

Titans +6.5 3.3% play 

Raiders +4 4.4% NFL POD 

Browns -3 -120 4% play 

Bears +5.5 3% play 

49ERS +6 BUY 1/2 5.5% NFL POD

BENGALS +3 3.3% PLAY 

jETS +3 2.2% PLAY 

Raiders +3.5 -120 buy 1/2 point 2.5 %play 

PATRIOTS +7 3.3% PLAY 

Steelers +6 5.5% MAX POD

CARDINALS +4.5 2.2% PLAY 

Jets +7 -120 3.5% 

TEXANS +17.5 1.1% 

Dolphins +4 3.3% play / 1% on Dolphins +170

Washington +7.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD 

Colts +5.5 3.3% play 

Lions +7.5 1.1% play 

CHARGERS -3 1.1% 

Vikings +3.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Panthers +3.5 3.3% play 

Bears -1.5 2.2% NFL PLAY 

COLTS +3.5 3.3% PLAY 

Eagles +3 2.2% pla y

Giants +3.5 2.2% play 

Browns +5 3.3% play 

Washington -1 3.3% PLAY 

Arizona +3 5.5% NFL POD

Steelers +6.5 3% play 

Saints -3 4.4% 

Browns +10 2% 

Bills -2.5 5.5% NFL POD 

Rams +7 -120 3% 

Browns 2% 

Saints -10 3% 

Titans +3.5 3% 

Washington Football Team +8 1% 

Rams +3.5 3.3% play 

COLTS +7 -120 BUY 1/2 5.5% 

Eagles +4 3.3% play 

Jaguars +14.5 1.1% 

Bears +4.5 3% 

Panthers +6 2% 

STeelers +10 2% 

Rams +1.5 5.5% NFL POD

Texans -7.5 2.2% pl y