Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-30-11 | Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
Sunday Night Total Game of the Month (OVER) : Dallas (3-3 SU/3-3 ATS) QB Tony Romo (10 TDs, 6 INTs) has a slew of talented weapons in WR Dez Bryant, WR Miles Austin, TE Jason Witten and RB Felix Jones, No. 3 in the NFL with 312 yards passing per game. Romo suffered a rib fracture/lung puncture at San Francisco but is playing with a flak jacket. Terence Newman is back on the field, a welcome development for a secondary that has featured a patchwork lineup over the last couple of weeks. The revamped offensive line is very young and hasn
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10-24-11 | Baltimore Ravens v. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 38.5 | Top | 7-12 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
Baltimore (4-1 SU/ATS) is loaded on both sides of the ball, 9th in rushing yards, second in rush defense. They prefer balance on offense with QB Joe Flacco (7 TDs, 4 INTs), RB Ray Rice, WR Anquan Boldin and new WR Lee Evans, plenty of tools for OC Cam Cameron. The retooled offensive line has new left tackle Bryant McKinnie, left guard Ben Grubbs, Birk, right guard Marshal Yanda and right tackle Michael Oher. Tackles Haloti Ngata and Terrence Cody are dominant up front on a defense that is 2nd in rushing yards allowed, 9th in pass yards. The Ravens pulled away to a 29-14 victory over the short-handed Houston Texans on Sunday with an edge in yards 402-293. Flacco had two turnovers, but he also had completions of 51 yards and 56 yards. The Jaguars (1-5 SU/2-3 ATS) have a tough defense. They had been going with QB Luke McCown (0 TDs, 4 INTs), throwing 4 picks in a 32-3 loss at the Jets. Rookie QB Blane Gabbert (4 TDs, 2 INTs), the team
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10-16-11 | Buffalo Bills v. NY Giants OVER 50 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 43 h 12 m | Show |
10/16 1:00 PM EST NFL (213) BUFFALO BILLS (214) NEW YORK GIANTS
Take: NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year: Bills/NY Giants Over. The Bills (4-1 SU/3-2 ATS) have QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (10 TDs, 4 INTs) and great weapons in WR Stevie Johnson and RB Fred Jackson, the third highest scoring team in the NFL (32.8 ppg). In the red zone, where the Bills have come away with points 77 percent of the time, Chan Gailey puts together three-man packages and packages on either side of the field to confuse the defense. Buffalo bounced back from a from a loss at Cincinnati, 23-20 (getting outgained 458-273), with a 31-24 win over the Eagles Sunday despite giving up 483 yards. They've scored at least 30 points in 4 of 5 games. Of course, the defense is poor, 30th in the NFL in yards allowed. The Giants (3-2 SU/ATS) have plenty of offensive weapons behind QB Eli Manning (9 TDs, 5 INTs). He was sharp with 321 yards leading a comeback win at Arizona, 31-27, but they come off an embarrassing home loss to the Seahawks, 35-26, giving up 20 fourth quarter points. The defense gave up 424 yards (145 rushing), so the injuries are taking a toll. The team had a lot of injuries in August, including defensive end Osi Umemyiora (knee), cornerback Prince Amukamara (foot), linebacker Jonathan Goff (knee). CB Terrell Thomas (knee) is done for the year. First-round pick Prince Amukamara broke a bone in his right foot in his second practice of training camp and will be out at least another month. Bruce Johnson, a valuable reserve, ruptured his Achilles tendon in camp, ending his season. The Over is 12-3-1 in Giants last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game and I see both offenses rolling up yards and points. Play the NY Giants/Bills Over the total. |
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10-02-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Houston Texans OVER 44.5 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 7 m | Show |
10/02 1:00 PM EST NFL (223) PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS (224) HOUSTON TEXANS
Take: Pro Football High Roller 'Total' Annihilator: Steelers/Texans Over the total. The Steelers (2-1 SU/1-2 ATS) have exceptional balance on offense behind QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WRs Mike Wallace and Hines Ward, plus TE Heath Miller. Big Ben hit Wallace for an 81-yard TD Sunday night and finished with 364 yards in a 23-20 last second win at Indy. They really dominated the game, with an edge in yards 408-241. The Steelers continue to have problems defending the stretch play because it creates gaps in their defense. And RB Joseph Addai took advantage all game, with 39 yards on 8 carries and finishing with 86 yards on 17 carries. At least WR Mike Wallace has 6 consecutive 100-yard receiving game. Houston (2-1 SU/ATS) is loaded on offense with QB Matt Schaub (4 TD, 3 INTs) and WR Andre Johnson on an offense that is 9th in the NFL in yards, 7th in points (30 ppg). Houston put up 473 yards Sunday but lost 40-33 at New Orleans giving up 454. Schaub threw for 373 yards. The defense has a new coordinator and still has a ways to go with personnel and schemes. Look for plenty of passing yards and points in this indoor game. Play the Steelers/Texans Over the total. |
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09-12-11 | Oakland Raiders v. Denver Broncos OVER 40.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
The Oakland defense is bad and they showed it during the preseason. They had a 24-18 home loss to Arizona, giving up 400 yards, and a 17-3 loss at the 49ers, giving up 239 yards rushing. Last season they were 29th in the NFL in rush defense, giving up 133.6 yards per game. The defense is moving in the wrong direction, and allowed 1,316 yards in the first three preseason games. The young secondary was awful in exhibition play, so this team is going to take a significant step back in 2011. Denver's defense was horrible in 2010, and will be hoping that new HC John Fox can change that. He has a good QB in Kyle Orton, but depth at running back is a concern with LenDale White (cut), and rookie Mario Fannin (knee sprain) and Willis McGahee working his way into the offense since signing a four-year deal with the team last month. McGahee and Knowshon Moreno are firmly positioned as the team
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08-29-11 | New York Jets v. New York Giants OVER 35.5 | Top | 17-3 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
The battle of the Meadowlands, two teams sharing the same home field. The Jets have a QB rotation of Mark Sanchez, Mark Brunell and rookie Greg McElroy. Coach Rex Ryan said he will play his starters a series into the third quarter Saturday vs. the Giants, no more than he usually does for the third preseason game. But he won
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08-21-11 | Cincinnati Bengals v. New York Jets UNDER 35.5 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
25* Football Bookie Buster Total (UNDER) : Points are going to be at a premium for the Bengals, a team in transition. With Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco gone it was evident in week one that this team is in trouble. The Bengals scored just three points in their opener at Detroit. With QB up in the air it's a fight between Bruce Gradkowski, Andy Dalton, Jordan Palmer and Dan Lefevour. Dalton is looking like the guy to start tonight's game. Dalton did complete 11 of 15 passes in week one, but for just 69 yards and was sacked a couple of times. The Bengals are also hurting at wide-out, with up to five players missing at the receiver position at various times. While the Bengals look to be a team that is looking for answers, the Jets are a team looking for a ring. With Mark Sanchez firmly in place at the QB spot, expect his time in this game to work on timing with new WR Plaxico Burress. Mark Brunell and Gre McElroy will likely get most of the playing time here. The Jets have some offensive line problems, evidence by McElory getting beat up last week by the Texans who sacked him five times. HC Rex Ryan's record is just 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS in the preseason, but he did look very upset on a few occasions last week with his personnel. I look for this game to be low scoring as the Bengals will find scoring tough, even against the Jets second and third team. If we can keep the Jets from running up the score, then I like this one UNDER.
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08-02-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
20* Diamond Dominator Total (Bal/Kan OVER) : Get two bad teams together and usually you get a scoring fest. These teams aren't bad because they have good pitching staffs. In fact, these teams rank No. 1 and No. 2 in runs allowed with the O's being first (5.33 rpg) and KC second (4.85 rpg). Considering their rpp, it isn't a far leap to the same rankings in worst ERA with Baltimore at 4.89 and KC at 4.48. WHIP follow the same patter with Baltimore at 1.477 and KC at 1.429. Such bad staffs will result in runs especially with KC ranking sixth in the AL in runs scored per game (4.42). Alfredo Simon starts for the O's with a 2-4 mark and 4.23 ERA. The problem with Simon is that he is trying to make the transition from bullpen to starter and he has gone more than five innings just twice in eight starts and has pretty much been on a pitch count. For Simon to make the move to a starter he's going to have to take some of the heat off a now depleted bullpen. Bruce Chen starts for the Royals and will be trying to bounce back after a dismal start against Boston where he allowed 10 earned runs in just four innings. I don't have a lot of confidence in either starter and I fully expect the pens to be used frequently and early in this game. I'm taking the OVER and enjoying the show.
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07-20-11 | Boston Red Sox v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
15* Total Game of the Month (OVER) : This entire series just looked too good to be true for total players. You have the best offensive team in baseball in the Red Sox going against a horrible Orioles pitching staff. You saw what happened on Monday as the teams combined for 25 runs. I don't think the oddsmaker can make this total high enough personally. I believe the Red Sox alone can get over these totals. And the pitching matchup is perfect for an OVER. You have Andrew Miller starting for the Sox, who has a 5.68 ERA on the year and a 7.90 ERA in his last three starts. Jake Arrieta will oppose for the O's with his 5.10 ERA on the season and 8.79 ERA in his last three starts. The one time Arrieta faced the Sox this year, how about lasting just 4 1/3 innings, allowing six hits, four walks and four earned runs. The Red Sox will feast on this Orioles staff come Wednesday morning.
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06-10-11 | Boston Bruins v. Vancouver Canucks UNDER 5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 110 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
06/10 08:05 PM EST NHL (9) BOSTON BRUINS VS (10) VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Take: NHL Playoff Total of the Year: Game 5 Bruins/Canucks Under the total. The series is tied 2-2, so this game is huge, and big games like this usually mean sensational defense and a slower pace, as both teams don't want to make a mistake. We saw this in Games 1 and 2 in this arena, both games sailed under the total in Vancouver wins of 1-0 and 3-2. The Under is 43-12-7 in Bruins last 62 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Boston's style is more defensive-oriented, especially on the road, scoring a total of 2 goals in the first two games of this series, in addition to a 3-1 game in the only regular season meeting between these teams (also in this building). Tim Thomas has been sensational for Boston, and the under is 17-6-3 in the Canuck's last 26 games as a favorite. Play Game 5 Bruins/Canucks Under the total! |
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05-20-11 | New York Mets v. New York Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
05/20 07:05 PM EST MLB (913) NEW YORK METS (914) NEW YORK YANKEES
Take: Baseball Total of the Month: Mets/Yankees Over the total. The New Yankee stadium is similar to the old Yankee stadium in one respect -- it's an easy home run park, even more so. The Bronx Bombers are No. 1 in baseball in slugging, plus 4th in runs scored, helped by the home park band-box. The crosstown rival Mets come to town with a struggling knuckleballer in R.A. Dickey. He's 1-5 with a 5.08 ERA and getting worse, with a 7.36 ERA his last three starts. The Over is 6-2 in Dickey's last 8 starts overall and the Over is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. I don't trust soft-throwing 34-year old Freddy Garcia for the Yankees, and after a good April he is already coming back to earth, with a 4.42 ERA his last three starts. The Yankees have all kinds of problems with defense, as well, which makes it tougher on pitchers and will help the scoring. Look for a shootout in the Bronz; Play the Mets/Yankees Over the total. |
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05-15-11 | Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 181.5 | Top | 82-103 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 7 m | Show |
05/15 08:00 PM EST NBA (501) MIAMI HEAT (502) CHICAGO BULLS
Take: NBA Playoff Total of the Year: Game 1 Heat/Bulls Under the total. Coach Tom Thibodeau earned that Coach of the Year trophy by bringing exceptional defense to the young Bulls. Chicago finished No. 2 in the NBA in points allowed, with 91.3 ppg, and Miami was No. 6 allowing 94.6 ppg. An even better indicator of defensive prowess is field goal shooting percentage allowed and these teams were No. 1 and 2 in the NBA during the regular season allowing 43% and .434% shooting by opponents. And we've seen that great defense all during the playoffs. Chicago allowed 73, 82, 83 and 73 points in the four wins over the Atlanta Hawks during their just completed playoff series. The Miami defense was outstanding all season, too, and was tremendous in shutting down Boston in their 5-game playoff series victory. The Under is 4-1 in the Heat's last 5 playoff games as an underdog, while the Under is 9-3 in the Bulls last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. And between these teams, the Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings when the Heat and Bulls show up. With so much at stake in this anticipated showdown, look for a fierce defense for Game 1. Play Game 1 Heat/Bulls Under the total! |
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05-07-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 200 | Top | 93-101 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
05/07 05:05 PM EST NBA (721) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (722) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Take: Oddsmaker Error Playoff Game of the Year: Grizzlies/Thunder Game 3 Over the total. A lot of talented young legs in this one, and both can run the floor with uptempo styles. Both Games 1 and 2 went over the total and oddsmakers haven't really adjusted. Memphis has young point guard Mike Conley and Oklahoma City has the dynamic one-two offensive punch of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Over is 5-0 in the Grizzlies last 5 overall. In fact, the Over is 8-2 in Grizzlies last 10 overall and they are 11-3 over the total in the Grizzlies last 14 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. I can see Oklahoma City pushing it uptempo against Memphis, as well, with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Over is 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Oklahoma City played a breakneck pace against the Denver Nuggets, which is their style, and they have continued it in this series against the young Grizzlies. The last 6 times that these teams have played each other, the over is a perfect 6-0, and 13-3 over the total in the last 16 meetings! I see an offensive show from the first quarter on; Play the Grizzlies/Thunder Game 3 Over the total. |
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05-01-11 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 195.5 | Top | 114-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
05/01 1:00 PM EST NBA (707) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS (708) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Take: Second Round Total Shocker of the Year: Grizzlies/Thunder Over the total. A lot of talented young legs in this one, and both can run the floor with uptempo styles. Memphis has young point guard Mike Conley and Oklahoma City has the dynamic one-two offensive punch of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Over is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games playing on 1 days rest and they come into this one off that big upset of the top seeded Spurs. In fact, the Over is 7-2 in Grizzlies last 9 overall and they are 10-3 over the total in the Grizzlies last 13 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. I can see Oklahoma City, a little more rested, pushing it uptempo against Memphis, who had that thrilling Game 6 win at home over San Antonio just two days ago. The Over is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Oklahoma City played a breakneck pace against the Denver Nuggets, which is their style, and they will continue it against the young Grizzlies. The Over is 35-15-1 in Thunder last 51 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, and the last 5 times that these teams have played each other, the over is a perfect 5-0! I see an offensive show from the first quarter on; Play the Grizzlies/Thunder Game 1 Over the total. |
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04-25-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 206.5 | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
04/25 10:35 PM EST NBA (513) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (514) DENVER NUGGETS
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL. Reason: Oklahoma City is a talented young team with exceptional balance. Their offense gets all the attention with flashy Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, but this defense has become very good quickly. They traded for Kendrick Perkins in midseason and he's added defense and rebounding, along with 21-year old 6-10 Serge Ibaka, who has emerged as an athletic shot blocker. After giving up 60 first half points in Game 1, the Thunder held the Nuggets to 42 second half points in their 107-103 comeback win. Then in Game 2 the defense was great in a 106-89 win, allowing .391% shooting with a whopping 54-31 rebounding edge. The Thunder is 7-3 in Thunder last 10 road games and 9-4 in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. They face a small Denver frontcourt, so they should continue to control the boards. The Under is 5-1-1 in Nuggets' last 7 games playing on 1 days rest, and the Under is 18-7-2 in Nuggets last 27 overall. Plus the Under is 23-10 in Nuggets last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games and the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. An offensive show? That's what oddsmakers expect, but they have overvalued this one, which should feature plenty of intense defense with so much at stake. Play the Thunder/Nuggets Under the total in Game 4! |
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04-21-11 | Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 189 | Top | 88-84 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
04/21 07:05 PM EST NBA (733) CHICAGO BULLS VS (734) INDIANA PACERS Take: UNDER THE TOTAL. Reason: Eastern Conference Total of the Month: Bulls/Pacers Game 3 Under. The No. 1 seeded Bulls won the first two games at home, 104-99 and 96-90, as the Bulls won the rebounding battle in those games 49-34 and 57-33! The Bulls have a young, physical frontcourt, No. 2 in the NBA in rebounding led by 6-9 Carlos Boozer (17.5 ppg, 9.6 rpg), and 26-year old 6-11 Joakim Noah (11.7 ppg, 10.4 rpg) and 26-year old 6-9 Luol Deng (17.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg). Chicago has the second stingiest defense in the league at 91.3 points per game and the best field goal percentage against in the league allowing 43% shooting. The Bulls 48-34 under the total, the Pacers 44-37-1 under the total -- and playoff action means even more fierce defense. The Pacers were the aggressors in Game 2 despite losing Roy Hibbert for long stretches to foul trouble, but having home court should help his foul trouble. But can they score? The Bulls have held Indiana to 41% shooting the last 10 times they've met! Look for a grind-it-out defensive game, Play the Bulls/Pacers Game 3 Under the total. |
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04-20-11 | Denver Nuggets v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 207 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
04/20 08:05 PM NBA (727) DENVER NUGGETS VS (728) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL. Reason: Denver likes to run, but Oklahoma City has improved defense with the addition of Kendrick Perkins in the low post, blocking shots and grabbing rebounds. Of course, Perkins is an offensively liability, and note the Thunder is on a 12-8 run under the total. That included three wins over this Denver team over the last two weeks, 2-1 under the total. Oklahoma City won 101-94 at Denver on April 5 holding the Nuggets to .439% shooting and a rebounding edge of 50-41. Then they met again April 8 and Denver was held to 89 points and 40% shooting in a 104-89 Oklahoma City rout. Game 1 was an uptempo affair, but I can't see that continuing. Playoff games mean so much that both teams usually bring far more defensive intensity than the regular season. And this betting number on the total has shot up from Game 1, so there is tremendous value. Denver plays its best basketball at home, but he Nuggets are 5-1-1 under the total their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and the Under is 44-20-1 in the Nuggets last 65 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Play the Nuggets/Thunder Game 2 Under the total. |
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04-13-11 | Washington Wizards v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 211 | Top | 93-100 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
04/13 08:05 PM NBA (513) WASHINGTON WIZARDS VS (514) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS .
Take: High Roller: Wizards/Cavaliers Over the total. Final game of the season for a pair of teams long out of the playoff race. Neither play defense, with the Cavs ranked 23rd in points allowed and Washington 25th. And as far as field goal shooting defense, they are worse, ranked 25th and 27th. This being the finale, no one is going to care about defense and, like an All Star game, look for players to bad their stats by focusing on offense. The Over is 7-2 in the Wizards last 9 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Cleveland has been more of an uptempo team since mid-season, as they have no inside defensive players or height. The over is 5-0 in the Cavaliers last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. And what has happened when these two teams meet? The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Don't look for any defense, play the Wizards/Cavaliers Over the total. |
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04-02-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 205.5 | Top | 92-98 | Win | 100 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
Take: Under
Reason: High Roller Total: Thunder/Clippers Under the total. Since big man Kendrick Perkins arrived, Oklahoma City has been a different team defensively: The Under is 8-3 for the Thunder's last 11 overall. Oklahoma City can play any style, but this is the second of a back to back spot after battling the Blazers last night. The Clippers had to run the floor with the uptempo Suns last night and wouldn't mind slowing the pace down, as well. The Under is 9-3 in the Clippers last 12 vs. Western Conference. I see a defensive battle, Play the Thunder/Clippers Under the total. |
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03-19-11 | Boston Celtics v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 179 | Top | 89-85 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
03/19 05:05 PM NBA (505) BOSTON CELTICS VS (506) NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL. Reason: March Total of the Month: Celtics/Hornets Under the total. Two of the best defensive teams in the NBA meet: Boston is No. 2 in points allowed (91 ppg), New Orleans is No. 4 (93 ppg). They are also in the Top 8 in field goal shooting defense. The Celtics prefer not to run, especially in the second of a back to back spot like they find themselves in here. The Under is 5-1 in the Celtics last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. Boston has had its defensive game face on, riding a 5-1 run under the total. New Orleans has little depth, which is why they play a slow pace, scoring the fourth fewest points allowed per game (94.8 ppg). The Under is 5-2 in the Celtics last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 9-4 under the total in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. For New Orleans, the Under is 18-8 in Hornets last 26 home games and 40-19 under the total in the Hornets last 59 overall. And when these teams meet: A perfect 5-0 under the total the last 5, including an 83-81 Hornets win at Boston earlier this season. Play the Celtics/Hornets Under the total. |
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03-17-11 | Wofford v. Brigham Young OVER 147 | Top | 66-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Total: Wofford/BYU Over the total. A pair of uptempo teams meet here. Wofford averages 73.8 ppg and is 8th in the nation in field goal percentage, shooting .479% as a team, led by sharp-shooting 6-6 senior Noah Dahlman (20 ppg), who shoots 61% from the field. The Over is 4-1 in the Terriers last 5 neutral site games and 10-4 over the total in the Terriers last 14 games following an ATS win. BYU knows how to score, too, 8th in the nation with 81.6 ppg led by dynamic gaurd Jimmer Fredette, the Mountain West Player of the Year. He was named the MWC Tournament MVP where he averaged a tournament-record 35.3 points. He set BYU and MWC records with a 52-point performance against New Mexico in the semifinals. Fredette currently leads the nation in scoring at 28.5 points per game. The Over is 10-4 in Cougars last 14 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 8-3 over the total in the Cougars last 11 neutral site games as a favorite. Play Wofford/BYU Over the total! |
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03-02-11 | Pittsburgh v. South Florida UNDER 124.5 | Top | 66-50 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Take: Under
Reason: Big East Total of the Year: Pittsburgh/South Florida Under. Pittsburgh is in first place in the rugged Big East, and they didn't get there by being soft on defense. Winners of 15 of its last 18 overall games and 16 of its last 19 Big East regular season contests, No. 4 Pitt enters the game following a 62-59 overtime loss at No. 16 Louisville. The Panthers overcame 32 percent shooting and 22 first half points and a nine-point halftime deficit to battle back in the second half. The Under is 5-0 in Panthers last 5 vs. the Big East and 6-1 under in the Panthers last 7 road games. The Panthers claimed a 67-55 victory over the Bulls on Feb. 16 at the Petersen Events Center, which went under the total. The Under is 7-2 in the last 9 overall by the South Florida Bulls, as well. Can't see much scoring, especially by the home team. Play Pitt/South Florida Under the total. |
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02-09-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. Toronto Raptors OVER 201 | Top | 111-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
02/09 04:05 PM NBA (709) SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS (710) TORONTO RAPTORS
Take: over the total. Reason: NBA Bookie Buster Total of the Year: Spurs/Raptors Over. San Antonio is No. 6 in the NBA in scoring and second in three-point shooting, bombing away from beyond the arc at a sizzling .392%. They recently put 113 up on Sacramento, sailing over the total by 17 points. Who wouldn't want a BENCH of George Hill, Antonio McDyess, rookie Tiago Splitter and Gary Neal? The Spurs are off to their fastest start in history. They face a Toronto team that loves to run the court, but plays no defense, giving up 104.9 ppg, sixth worse in the NBA. Neither team is very good defensively at the three-pointer, and Toronto is 2-1 over the total its last three home games. Jose Calderon tied a career and franchise record for assists, and with Amir Johnson playing a game that coach Jay Triano lauded as "almost perfect," the Raptors beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 111-100, breaking off a 13-game losing streak. Andrea Bargnani had 30 points. Look for both teams to run the court all night long with little defense. Play the Spurs/Raptors Over the total. |
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01-25-11 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 194 | Top | 105-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: NBA High Roller Total: Clippers/Mavericks Under the total. The powerhouse offensive team against the powerhouse defensive team! The Clippers have a fine young offense, but note that the Under is 14-5 in Clippers last 19 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. They face a team that has transformed this season under Coach Rick Carlisle into a unit that has been impressive on defense, 10th in the NBA in field goal shooting allowed and sixth in points allowed (94 ppg). They come off an 87-86 win over New Jersey, part of a 5-2 run under the total. Dallas has the big men in the frontcourt to throw at young Blake Griffin and the under is 11-5 in Mavericks last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. And look at the recent history of these teams: The Under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings overall, plus the Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Dallas. Look for a defensive game, Play the Clippers/Mavericks Under the total. |
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01-23-11 | NY Jets v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 39 | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
Another rematch game! The Jets (13-5 SU/12-6 ATS) have been up and down wildly in the second half of the season, winning at Pittsburgh (22-17) with their dominant defense, but also getting blown out at New England (45-3) and a 38-34 loss at Chicago. This team excels on the road and in the role of underdog. QB Mark Sanchez (20 TDs, 14 INTs) may have decent overall numbers and several heroic comebacks, but the last 11 games he has 12 TDs, 14 picks. However, he was on target Sunday with 3 TDs and no picks in the revenge game at New England, as the ground game had 120 yards, but won't be able to run on the Steelers top ranked run 'D'. The offense is balanced, with a good offensive line for a ground attack that is No. 6 in the league (140 yds rushing pg) and has rushed for more than 170 yards three times. The defense is No. 4 in the NFL in yards allowed and 19.8 ppg. The defense usually blitzes 50% of the time. The Steelers (13-4 SU/11-6 ATS) started 3-1 without their starting QB, but Ben Roethlisberger (19 TDs, 5 INTs) is back, 10-3 SU/8-5 ATS in his 13 starts. They
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01-16-11 | Seattle Seahawks v. Chicago Bears OVER 41 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 46 h 36 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Total: Seahawks/Bears Over the total. Seattle shocked the world Saturday in a 41-36 upset of the defending champion Saints as a +10 home dog. Still, the numbers are ugly, particularly on defense where the Seahawks rank 30th in total defense and have battled injuries all season under first-year Coach Pete Carroll. QB Matt Hasselbeck (16 TDs, 17 INTs) rolled back the clock with 4 TDs and one pick Saturday as the offense erupted for 415 yards. Hasselbeck threw for 272 yard. He has good targets in WR Ben Obomanu and Mike Williams, and RB Marshawn Lynch (131 yards) had an electrifying 67-yard TD run to ice it. Seattle is on a 9-1 run over the total. When Seattle loses, they lose big, with defeats by 17, 17, 30, 34, 18, 16, 19 and 23 points. The Bears have a new offensive coordinator in Mike Martz and an above average QB in Jay Cutler (23 TDs, 16 INTs), plus RB Matt Forte (1,069 yards, 4.5 ypc) carried the ground game. Chicago is on a 5-1 run over the total. When these teams met back in Week 6, Hasselbeck threw for 242 yards and a touchdown and Seattle's defense sacked Jay Cutler six times as the Bears were 0 for 12 on third downs. They won't go 0 for 12 in the rematch, plus the Over is 36-17 in the Seahawks last 53 games as a road underdog, while the Over is 21-10 in Bears last 31 games as a home favorite. Play the Bears/Seahawks Over the total. |
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01-14-11 | Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 190 | Top | 99-86 | Win | 100 | 25 h 0 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Bulls/Pistons Under. The Chicago Bulls have a first-year coach in Tom Thibodeau, who ran Boston |
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01-04-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. New York Knicks OVER 208.5 | Top | 115-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: 25-Star High Roller Total: Knicks/Spurs Over the total. Don't see any defense in this one. The big bad Spurs are on a 4-0 SU/ATS run and 2-1 over the total their last three road games, with scores of 113-112 and 123-101. This is the start of a 3-game road trip, but this deep team has had 2 full days off. They match up well with an uptempo New York team that doesn't defend the three-pointer well (21st in the NBA) and San Antonio is lights out with a sizzling 40% from beyond the arc, easily tops in the NBA. The Knicks allow .467 shooting overall, which is 24th in the NBA, a small team that prefers to push it up the court with newcomer Ray Felton, who has been a great addition. New York is No. 1 in points scored in the NBA (107.2 ppg) but 29th in points allowed. San Antonio is 10-2 on the road and the New York crowd will want to see an offensive show with a Western powerhouse in town. Play the Spurs/Knicks Over the total. |
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12-31-10 | Notre Dame v. Miami (Florida) UNDER 47 | Top | 33-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
Take: Under
Reason: High Roller Total: Miami/Notre Dame Under the total. Not good weather for offense in this Sun Bowl battle, 38 degrees and 13 MPH wind. Both teams have QB troubles, too, and have terrific defenses. Notre Dame (7-5 SU/6-5-1 ATS) overcame a lot of adversity and rebuilding to make a bowl under first-year Coach Brian Kelly. They lost 6-4 Junior QB Dayne Crist (15 TDs, 7 INTs) to a ruptured patellar tendon in his left knee, gone for the season. The Irish also lost leading rusher Armando Allen, whose collegiate career may be over with a hip injury. Freshman QB Tommy Rees (10 TDs, 8 INTs) stepped in and helped lead the Irish to 3-0 SU/ATS run the last three games to make a bowl, including upset wins over Utah (28-3) and at USC (20-16). The defense, always a problem under Charlie Weis, made great improvements, allowing 20.5 ppg. Notre Dame is 9-3 under the total. While Notre Dame overcame adversity, Miami (7-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) had all theirs come at the end, with the firing of Coach Randy Shannon. Offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland is coaching the team now, and they hired new Coach Al Golden from Temple. Junior QB Jacory Harris (14 TDs, 12 INTs) got knocked out of the 24-19 loss at Virginia in midseason, hit in the chest as he released a pass, and missed several games. Freshman QB Stephen Morris (5 TDs, 8 INTs) stepped in and has been up and down and hurt his ankle in practice this week (he was seen on crutches). The defense is very good, allowing 19.7 ppg (21st in the nation). Miami is on a 7-2-1 run under the total. I see very little scoring in this one, Play Notre Dame/Miami Under the total! |
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12-29-10 | Illinois v. Baylor OVER 62 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Bowl Total: Illinois/Baylor Over the total. This is the Texas Bowl from Reliant Stadium in Houston, and it helps games over the total this time of the year when it's indoors. Both teams have good offenses and suspect defenses. Illinois (6-6) has lost three of four, including upset losses to Minnesota and Fresno State. Illinois is on a 5-1 run over the total, allowing 67, 38, 27 and 25 points the last four games. Illinois (6-6 SU, 7-4 ATS) surprised under Coach Ron Zook. Redshirt freshman Nathan Scheelhaase (17 TDs, 8 INTS) is the starter, mobile rushing for 815 yards, with good speed and the ground game is very good (242 yds per game) behind junior RB Mikel Leshoure (1,513 yds, 6.0 ypc). The offense averages 32.1 ppg and they are going bowling after a 48-27 rout of Northwestern at Wrigley Field, rolling up 519 yards rushing! The Illini has defensive problems (24 ppg allowed), as in that 67-65 triple overtime loss at Michigan, despite 561 yards (315 rushing). Michigan had 394 yards of offense in the first half and gave up 312 to Illinois. The Illini is 7-4 over the total. The Baylor Bears are riding a three-game losing streak. After starting 7-2, they were handled by three ranked teams, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Big 12 champion Oklahoma. The Baylor Bears (7-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) have a powerful offense (32.6 points, 278 yards passing, 200.5 rushing per game), led by QB Robert Griffin III (21 TDs, 8 INTs, 3,195 yards). He is second on the team in rushing with 591 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, along with senior RB Jay Finley (1,155 yards, 6.3 ypc). The defense is terrible, allowing 29.8 ppg and has allowed 55, 42 and 53 point the last three games (0-3 SU/ATS run). They lost 55-28 at Oklahoma State giving up 725 yards! Griffin III had 267 yards on 30 for 48 passing. The Bears alos rolled up 503 yards at home, but lost 42-30 to Texas A&M, blowing a 30-21 halftime lead. Baylor is on a 7-1 run over the total. Play Baylor/Illinois Over the total. |
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12-25-10 | Dallas Cowboys v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 44.5 | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 97 h 30 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller: Cowboys/Cardinals Over the total. The Cowboys (5-9 SU/6-8 ATS) are showing life under new coach Jason Garrett, on a 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS run. Dallas is playing like a different team behind 38-year old backup QB Jon Kitna (15 TDs, 10 picks). They faced a terrible Washington defense Sunday and put up 422 yards in a 33-30 OT win, blowing a 24-7 lead. The Cowboys lost two players to concussions -- safety Gerald Sensabaugh, who had an interception and a sack in the first quarter, and rookie linebacker Sean Lee. The Dallas defense allowed at least 30 points for the fourth straight game. The defense is still a problem, 25th in the NFL in yards allowed and fifth-worst in points (28 ppg). The Cowboys have allowed at least 24 points in 9 of their last 11 games. Dallas is on an 11-0 run over the total. The Cardinals (4-10 SU/ATS) are just awful, 27th in total defense. In their last home game they put up 40 points on a bad Denver defense and should be able to get some on this shaky Dallas 'D'. They are going with a youth movement on defense with nose tackle Dan Williams (first round) and linebacker Daryl Washington (second round). The Cardinals altered their defensive scheme during portions of Sunday's game, going from their 3-4 base look to a 4-3. The idea was that an extra down lineman would help them stop the Panthers' running game, which is the only offense Carolina has. The strategy didn't work in the first half as the Panthers rushed for 96 yards, half of which came on first-down plays in the first quarter. Arizona is on an 8-4-1 run over the total and I see another offensive show indoors. Play the Cowboys/Cardinals Over the total! |
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12-21-10 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 191.5 | Top | 76-121 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: NBA High Roller Total of the Month: 76ers/Bulls Under the total. The Bulls are an excellent defensive team under new coach Tom Thibodeau. He was the assistant running the defense on the Celtics the last three years, which included two trips to the NBA Finals and consistently one of the best defensive teams in the league. They are on a 15-5 run under the total. For this game, the offense is without Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson played the last game but suffered a concussion the previous game. The Bulls played uncharacteristically small and flat with the Noah-less lineup that featured the 6-foot-9 Gibson at center and two other 6-9 players |
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12-15-10 | Milwaukee Bucks v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 190 | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Total Powerhouse: Bucks/Spurs Over the total. The Bucks have gotten their offense going after a rough start to the season, riding a 6-3 run over the total. There is plenty of offensive talent, and they showcased that in an impressive 103-99 win at Dallas, one of the top defensive teams in the NBA. That game sailed over by 19 points. Now they face a deadly uptempo offense in San Antonio, the top three-point shooting team and one averaging 106.4 ppg, 4th highest in the league. Both teams are rested and the Spurs have topped 100 points in 13 of the last 17 games. Look for an offensive show, Play the Bucks/Spurs Over the total. |
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11-29-10 | Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 197 | Top | 91-101 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
The Houston Rockets grabbed just their fifth win of the season on Sunday with a one-point home win over Oklahoma City, 99-98. It was the club's second win in the last three games after a drought of five losses in a row. The win was also just the Rockets second cover in the last seven games. But what is of particular value to me is their defense, or lack thereof. The Rockets have allowed over 100 points in four of their last six games. The Rockets started the season by allowing 107 or more in their first five games. Meanwhile, Dallas has been an under team this season, going 6-9 Over/Under on the season. This is mainly because they play such good defense, in fact, the Mavs are the third best defensive team in the NBA. Houston is 26th in the NBA in defense. And, while Dallas has not needed to score much to win, they have upped the tempo of late, scoring over 100 points in each of their last three games with all three going OVER. This series has been high scoring of late, with three of the last four meetings going OVER the number. In those three overs, the lowest combines score was 224. I am sticking with the OVER here on Monday, mainly because of the Houston defense. I see Utah easily getting over 100 points, and with a total of 197 (opening number) we only need about 93 out of Houston.
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11-28-10 | St Louis Rams v. Denver Broncos OVER 44.5 | Top | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 48 h 39 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Total: Rams/Broncos Over the total. These teams are ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in yards allowed, with Denver 26th in yards and third worst in points allowed (28.7 ppg). The Rams have good balance on offense with rookie QB Sam Bradford (14 TDs, 9 INTs) along with RB Steven Jackson. They come off a showdown at home with Atlanta but didn |
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11-27-10 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State OVER 66.5 | Top | 47-41 | Win | 100 | 56 h 58 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: College Football Total of the Year: Oklahoma/Oklahoma State Over the total. A great Big 12 battle of powerful offenses with a lot at stake. And even the weather is cooperating for these offenses: 52 degrees, no wind, clear. Oklahoma (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) has been balanced on offense with sophomore QB Landry Jones (30 TDs, 7 INTs) and senior RB DeMarco Murray, averaging 35 ppg, but this defense has been up and down, prone to meltdowns. The Sooner defense has given up at least 20 points in 6 of their 10 games. Oklahoma is on a 6-4 run over the total. Oklahoma State (10-1 SU/8-2 ATS) has a powerhouse, no-huddle offense behind junior QB Brandon Weeden (30 TDs, 11 INTs), RB Kendell Hunter and star soph WR Justin Blackmon (1,558 yards), averaging 45 points and third in the nation in passing with 363 yds per game. New offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen ran wide-open attacks at Houston and Texas Tech and has great pieces with the Cowboys. Weeden threw for 389 yards three touchdowns in the Cowboys' 48-14 victory over Kansas, giving the Cowboys at least a tie atop the Big 12 South and a 10-win regular season. Big 12 rushing leader Kendall Hunter had 105 yards on 22 carries. Oklahoma State is 7-3 over the total. This will be a shootout that sails over the total with ease. Play Oklahoma/Oklahoma State Over the total! |
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11-25-10 | New England Patriots v. Detroit Lions OVER 51 | Top | 45-24 | Win | 100 | 66 h 59 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Total: Patriots/Lions Over the total. The Patriots (8-2 SU/6-4 ATS) come to town with a terrific passing offense behind QB Tom Brady, but a young secondary that has been getting roasted for two years now. This is a pass-first New England offense with QB Tom Brady (19 TDs, 4 INTs), with WRs Wes Welker, young WR Brandon Tate and Deion Branch, plus rookie TEs Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkoswki have been a huge plus. The offense is 18th in the NFL in yards, but tops in points with 29 ppg. The New England secondary is a concern and nearly gave one away Sunday, nearly blowing a 31-14 fourth quarter lead, but James Sanders picked off Peyton Manning in the end zone in the final seconds. There are 5 rookies on this defense and they allowed 396 yards passing to Manning. The Patriots also had an impressive win at Pittsburgh as a dog, 39-26, tearing up the great Pittsburgh defense for 453 yards (350 yards passing by Brady). He was 30 of 43 for 350 yards with no sacks or interceptions. The young secondary has had its problems and have up 336 yards passing to San Diego, shredded by the Bills for 374 yards (240 passing by a backup QB), by the Bengals and Jets, gave up 277 yards passing to Baltimore and 387 yards to Ben Roethlisberger. This defense is 29th in the NFL, plus allowing 24 ppg, which explains an 8-2 over the total mark. The Lions have a good passing attack even with backup QB Shaun Hill, 6th in the NFL in passing. Hill threw for 323 yards and led the offense to 390 yards, but the Lions lost to the Bills. The new look defense is 21st with a 4-3 scheme under DC Gunther Cunningham and attacking unit, getting better against the run but still poor against the pass, so this is a bad matchup with the Patriots. Detroit limps home from a loss Sunday at Dallas, losing 35-19 as Detroit's Shaun Hill was 32 of 47 for 289 yards and two touchdowns. Their secondary will give up yards to Brady, indoors on the carpet, so look for a ton of passing yards and points. play the Patriots/Lions Over the total. |
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11-23-10 | Chicago Bulls v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 203 | Top | 91-98 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: 20-Star NBA High Roller Total: Bulls/Lakers Over the total. A pair of powerful offensive teams meet in LA: The Bulls and sparkplug guard Derrek Rose are 9th in the NBA in scoring (101.5 ppg) while the Lakers are No. 1 (112.5 ppg). Chicago is 6th in the NBA in field goal shooting, the Lakers are 4th. The young Bulls are not afraid to run the court with uptempo teams, scoring 112 on the Knicks and 120 on Golden State. The tall, deep, talented Lakers are just torching opponents, topping 100 points in 13 of 14 games. They just put 117 on the Golden State Warriors. The Lakers featured four players in double figures: They shot 55.7%. And they built enough of a lead for all the starters to rest in the fourth quarter and all but Pau Gasol to play less than 30 minutes. The Lakers scored 29 points in transition, and they imposed their front-line dominance with 56 points in the paint, 17 second-chance points. Look for the young Bulls to run right with the defending champs in an uptempo game. Play the Bulls/Lakers Over the total. |
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11-21-10 | Detroit Lions v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 47 | Top | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 115 h 32 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: 20-Star High Roller Total: Lions/Cowboys Over the total. A pair of soft defenses meet indoors, with Detroit 21st in yards allowed, the Cowboys 23rd. Both teams are down to backup QBs, but these backups are above average with a lot of NFL starting experience. Lions QB Shaun Hill is running the offense now. Hill threw for 323 yards Sunday and led the offense to 390 yards in a loss to the Bills. The Lions have lost 25 road games in a row largely because of a lousy defense, particularly in the secondary. And that secondary faces an incredible collection of talent with Dallas. QB Jon Kitna (7 TDs, 7 picks) threw for 327 yards and 3 TDs in a stunning 33-20 win at the NY Giants as a +14 dog, the first for interim coach Jason Garrett. Garrett ran them hard in practice, reportedly because Wade Phillips did not, taking it easy on his players. The offense had 427 yards, though the defense still looks soft, allowing 480 yards (373 passing). The defense is allowing 28 points per game (third-worst) but at least the talented offense got going, with rookie WR Dez Bryant grabbing 3 passes for 104 yards and the offense tearing up the NFL's top-ranked defense. The Cowboys have allowed 141 points in the last 16 quarters and at least 24 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Dallas is on an 6-0 run over the total and this one will fly over. Play the Cowboys/Lions Over the total. |
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11-19-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Boston Celtics UNDER 201 | Top | 89-84 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Thunder/Celtics Under the total. After playing a string of uptempo offensive teams, Oklahoma City comes to Boston to play the defensive-oriented Celtics. These teams have already met and it was a 92-83 Boston win at Oklahoma City, 21 points under the total. Boston allows 45% shooting and a stellar 32% from beyond the arc. The 94.6 ppg they allow is 6th best in the NBA. They come off a win over Washington allowing 83 points and 38% shooting. The Celtics have won three in a row and eight of their past nine. When they met a few weeks ago, Kevin Durant scored 34 points and Westbrook had 16 points and 10 assists to lead Oklahoma City, but Boston was content to let the stars get theirs and shut down everyone else: The Thunder shot .427% in the game. This total is far too high as the Celtics turn up their defense on their home court, as usual: Play the Thunder/Celtics Under the total. |
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11-14-10 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 37 | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 8 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Bucs/Panthers Under the total. Carolina (1-7 SU/2-6 ATS) has gone with QB Matt Moore (5 TDs, 10 INTs) and rookie QB Jimmy Clausen (1 TD, 4 INTs), with dreadful results. Panthers coach John Fox said that QB Matt Moore (torn right labrum) and MLB Dan Connor (hip surgery) would be placed on injured reserve, knocking two starters out of an already thin lineup. The Panthers are last in total offense with an embarrassing 240 yards per game, but 10th in total defense. That good defense bad offense explains a 6-2 mark under the total. Rookie WRs David Gettis and Brandon LaFell are getting time, so this offense is going with a youth movement. The biggest problem continues to be the offensive line with an anemic ground game. It |
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11-09-10 | New York Knicks v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 195.5 | Top | 80-107 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
Take: over.
Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: NY Knicks/Bucks Over the total. The NY Knicks are much improved from last season with Amare Stoudemire and Ray Felton leading an offense that is 10th in the NBA. The Knicks are in second place in the Atlantic, trailing Boston. But it's offense carrying the load as there are no defensive stoppers on this young, athletic but small frontcourt, allowing .465% shooting by opponents, 9th worst in the NBA. Their three-point defense has been particularly bad, allowing 37% shooting from long range. The Bucks had a hard time making shots the last game, sinking just 38.6% of their attempts in an 87-81 loss at home to New Orleans. But there's nothing wrong with the offensive talent on this team, led by Drew Gooden and Andrew Bogut up front and Bucks point guard Brandon Jennings. Gooden and Bogut have always been strong offensive players, but weak in the low post defensively. New Orleans shot 45% from the field and over 41% from long range. Milwaukee has played a string of strong defensive teams in the Hornets (twice), Celtics, Blazers and Bobcats, but they get a chance to bust out offensively against the small, uptempo Knicks. Play the NY Knicks/Bucks Over the total. |
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11-04-10 | New York Knicks v. Chicago Bulls OVER 195.5 | Top | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
Take: over the total.
Reason: 20-Star NBA High Roller Total: Knicks/Bulls Over. The NY Knicks have an uptempo offense and they are improved this season with Amare Stoudemire teamed with guard Raymond Felton. They are averaging 98 ppg and allowing 99 ppg. That uptempo offense is well rested for this game after that odd postponed game on Monday. They take on a Chicago team that is 12th in the NBA in offense averaging 102 ppg and fourth in field goal shooting (48%) behind Luol Deng and sparkplug guard Derrick Rose, who is off to a great start. Rose was averaging 33.5 points in Chicago's first two contests. Deng scored a career-high 40 points to lead the Chicago Bulls to a 110-98 victory over Portland on Monday night. Chicago has scored 101 and 110 points in two games and is 2-1 over the total. This has all the makings as an uptempo game from start to finish with these two young point guards putting on a show. Play the NY Knicks/Bulls Over the Total. |
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10-26-10 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics UNDER 190 | Top | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Heat/Celtics Under the total. Both coaches in this one are very good at teaching defense and demanding it. It's Game 1 of the season, so you have to believe defense will be ahead of the offense for both teams. The Celtics have won 2 of the last 3 Eastern crowns and got better for this season, essentially swapping out Rasheed Wallace for Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal. Both are asked to be role players off the bench, a perfect situation given their age. As impressive as Miami looks on paper, they are still a relatively short team and Boston has a big edge in the frontcourt with their defense and rebounding. Plus, the loss of 6th man Mike Miller is significan for the Heat offense, as he won't be around until January. Boston plays monster defense, especially at home, and both teams should bring their A-gam defensively as this will have a playoff-type atmosphere on national TV. Play the Heat/Celtics Under the total. |
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10-24-10 | Buffalo Bills v. Baltimore Ravens OVER 40 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 68 h 34 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Total: Bills/Ravens Over the total. This is a low total for an NFL game with a lot of offensive weapons on the field, not to mention one lousy defense (the Bills are 29th in total defense). The Bills are also dead last in points allowed (32.2 ppg). The Bills (0-4 SU/1-3 ATS) opened things up offensively in preseason with a new offensive coordinator, a new coach in Chan Gailey and a nice piece in rookie RB C.J.Spillner. The offense has actually been better under QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (7 TDs, 2 INTs) since he took over for Trent Edwards after two games. Fitzpatrick ranks sixth in the NFL in passing efficiency, with a rating of 99.9. The Bills' gross passing yards have gone up by 73 a game since Fitzpatrick took over. Fitzpatrick had 220 yards passing against Jacksonville, 128 against the New York Jets and 247 against New England. The offense looks more fluid under Fitzpatrick, a sixth-year veteran from Harvard. The Bills' new-look defense is 3-4, but they don |
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10-17-10 | Dallas Cowboys v. Minnesota Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 96 h 56 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: This is a low total for a game with all these offensive weapons and above-average QBs. It's also the first home game for Randy Moss in the Metrodome since he was traded. The Cowboys (1-3 SU/ATS) have 30-year old QB Tony Romo (7 TDs, 5 INTs) and a ton of talent to work with in RB Marion Barber, Felix Jones, dynamite TE Jason Witten and WRs Roy Williams, Miles Austin and rookie Dez Bryant. This offense is 5th in the NFL with 391 yards per game. They outgained Tennessee Sunday by a whopping 511-321, yet lost again, 34-27. They put it all together in Week, 3, winning 27-13 at Houston, forcing 3 turnovers as Romo went 23 for 30 for 284 yards and Williams caught five passes for 117 yards. The Vikings (1-3 SU/ATS) have the No. 5 ground attack in the NFL, a stud RB in Adrian Peterson, a very good offensive line and only need to get the passing game going. It did get going in the second half Monday night at New York in the rain. Now they play indoors on artificial carpet. This passing game will get better in a hurry with Moss joining Percy Harvin, a terrific TE. The Vikings have lost their starting cornerback, Cedric Griffin, for the rest of the season to another significant knee injury. With so many offensive weapons on the field, so look for another offensive show. Play the Vikings/Cowboys Over the total! |
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10-03-10 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 34 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
The Ravens (2-1 Su/1-2 ATS) have a ton of talent on defense and a new-look offense for QB Joe Flacco (4 TDs, 5 INTs), adding speedy WR Anquan Boldin and veteran T.J. Houshmandzadeh. The #1 ranked defense has been great all season. One concern is that stellar RB Ray Rice hurt his knee Sunday in a 24-17 win against Cleveland and might not be available for this game. Despite an overall #1 ranking, the run defense has been vulnerable, allowing 127 yards per game, 23rd in the league. And it was apparent last week, as the Browns gutted the Ravens in the middle, running right at Ray Lewis and tackles Haloti Ngata and Kelly Gregg for 173 total yards. The Steelers (3-0 SU/ATS) may be down to their third string QB, but this defense is as talented and hard hitting as ever. There are good targets with 34-year old WR Hines Ward, WR Mike Wallace and TE Heath Miller. There was an emphasis on the ground game in preseason, which was very good with the help of first round pick Center Maurkice Pouncey. Last week the running game accumulated 201 yards against Tampa Bay and is now #3 in the league with an average of 150 yards per game. This will be a problem on Sunday for the Ravens who have been vulnerable to the run. QB Charlie Batch threw for 186 yards and two long touchdowns to speedy Mike Wallace in the 35-year-old quarterback's first start in nearly three years, helping the Steelers remain unbeaten with a 38-13 rout at Tampa Bay. Normally when you think Pittsburgh and Baltimore, it's DEFENSE that comes to mind. However, the eight times these clubs have met they have gone OVER in six of those contests. Only one of the last eight meetings would have gone UNDER today's 34 total. I'm stepping out of the norm here and taking the OVER here on Sunday between these teams.
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09-27-10 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears OVER 46 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
The Packers (2-0 SU/ATS) are stocked with talent on both sides of the ball. QB Aaron Rodgers (4 TDs, 2 INTs) is off a campaign with 4,434 yards, 30 TDs and only 7 picks. He is blessed with a terrific group of receivers and this offense (6th in the NFL in 2009), with WR Donald Driver and WR Greg Jennings. They had a 27-20 win at Philadelphia in the opener, giving up 150 yards rushing because they had to face Mike Vick unexpectedly. Last week was a laugher, 34-7 over the hapless Bills. QB Aaron Rodgers threw for 255 yards, with touchdowns to Donald Driver and James Jones, and scrambled for another score. The Packers ranked an impressive second in total defense last year. The secondary is a concern, with 33-year old Charles Woodson (9 picks last year), cornerback Al Harris missed preseason and safety Atari Bigby will miss at least three more weeks after having ankle surgery last month. The Bears (2-0 SU/ATS) have a new offensive coordinator in Mike Martz, working with QB Jay Cutler (5 TDs, 1 INT, 649 yards) and a new-look offensive line. That was needed, as Cutler (27 TDs, 26 INTs in 2009) was sacked 35 times last fall. He was sacked 4 times in Week 1, but only once in Week 2, a stunning 27-20 win at Dallas. The defense gave up 410 yards (374 passing), but forced 3 turnovers. The offense struggled with the playbook in preseason and Martz
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09-20-10 | New Orleans Saints v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 44 | Top | 25-22 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
The defending champion Saints (1-0 Su/ATS) have had a few extra days to prepare after a 14-9 win on Thursday over the Vikings. QB Drew Brees (1 TD, 0 INTs) leads a stocked offense with WRs Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem, plus a potent ground game with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. They had only 308 yards in the opener. After trying just three running plays in the first half, the Saints went to the ground game seven times on their 11 plays for their decisive touchdown, a 1-yard scoring run by Pierre Thomas with 6:13 left in the third quarter.
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09-12-10 | Cleveland Browns v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 37 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 92 h 30 m | Show |
Take: Under
Reason: High Roller Total: Browns/Bucs Under. A pair of weak offensive teams meet in Week 1, and the defenses are usually ahead of the offenses at this time. The Browns have new looks on offense for Coach Eric Mangini. That |
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09-08-10 | Texas Rangers v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: 20-Star High Roller Total: Rangers/Blue Jays Over the total. A pair of powerhouse offensive teams meet in the Skydome, an easy home run park. In fact, the Jays are tops in baseball in homers, ranked 7th in the AL in runs, while the Rangers are 4th in runs. Texas goes with Derek Holland, a soft thrower who has allowed 6 homers in 34 innings and a 4.93 ERA. In his last 16 innings, he has allowed 18 hits, 11 walks and 13 runs. Toronto starter Marc Rzepczynski is even worse, with a 6.62 ERA. The Blue Jays are a perfect 4-0 over the total his last four starts, with final scores totaling 12, 14, 16 and 9 runs. Opponents are hitting .306 off him, and he's been worse at home with a 7.80 ERA. Look for an offensive show north of the border, Play the Rangers/Blue Jays Over the total. |
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09-02-10 | Buffalo Bills v. Detroit Lions OVER 38.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 48 h 37 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: Preseason Total of the Year: Bills/Lions Over the total. If you're a fan of defense, don't watch this game. Neither team has played it this preseason, and the Lions have been awful defensively for a long while. The Bills (2-1 SU/ATS) defense hasn |
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08-27-10 | San Diego Chargers v. New Orleans Saints OVER 43 | Top | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Total: Chargers/Saints Over the total. San Diego Coach Norv Turner likes to have fun and open up the playbook in preseason, unlike most coaches. They rolled up 335 yards and scored in every quarter in the opener, a 25-10 win over the Bears, and 294 yards in Saturday |
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08-04-10 | New York Mets v. Atlanta Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 109 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
The Braves have the Major's best home record and they sure are happy to be home after a tough road trip. The Braves are fifth in the league in runs/game (4.57) and sixth in batting average (.259). But expect those numbers to improve with the acquisition of Rick Ankiel. Ankiel came over from the Royals and is hitting very well with a .387 average and eight RBIs in his last eight games. Ankiel had two hits and two RBIs in his Atlanta home debut Monday. Mike Pelfrey starts today for the Mets and he's been struggling badly. While Pelfrey is 10-5 on the season, he hasn't won a game since June. And, it gets even worse than that. In his last five outings he's allowed four earned runs or more four times. The strikeouts are way down, in fact over those five outings he's allowed 13 walks against just 10 K's. The Braves will start Kris Medlen, a 24-year old from California. Medlen doesn't work a lot of innings, never going even into the seventh inning yet. He's give the Braves some solid outings both as a starter and from the pen. Medlen has allowed eight earned runs in his last two starts (11 innings) and has received a no decision in both starts. I'm looking at this game OVER here Wednesday. Pelfrey is getting hit hard every game out for some reason. Medlen is decent but not going to throw anything spectacular. The Braves should get their runs and if we can get three out of the Mets then this one should go OVER.
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07-22-10 | New York Mets v. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
The Dodgers finally won a game sine the All Star break, ending their six game losing streak for Joe Torre's boys. The fortunes of the Dodgers may also dictate the future of Torre as the skipper of this club. Torre is expected to decide his future within the next 4 weeks or so. A bad season by the Dodgers may just make up Torres mind to jump ship. The Mets meanwhile had dropped eight of their last 10 games heading into Wednesday's game at Arizona. The Mets, like the Dodgers are also dropping further back in their division race, however they appear to be getting healthier as as Jose Reyes and Luis Castillo both returned to the lineup Wednesday. Japanese fans will find particular interest in tonight's game as both teams start pitchers from the Island nation. The Mets start Hisanori Takahashi out of Tokyo. Takahashi got beat up pretty bad last time out, giving up six earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings. The Dodgers will start Hiroki Kuroda from Osaka. Kuroda finally got a good outing last start holding the Cardinals to just one earned run, though he did pick up the loss. Prior to that game, Kuroda gave up 10 runs in just 8 2/3 innings. Dodger Stadium has always been a good pitchers park, especially in the heavy LA night air. Both of these clubs are not hitting well and now the Dodger will be without Manny Ramirez again. I'm sticking with the UNDER here mainly based on two struggling teams that are having trouble scoring runs.
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07-21-10 | Boston Red Sox v. Oakland Athletics UNDER 8 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
The Boston Red Sox will be happy to get one player back from the IL in pitcher Clay Buchholz. Considering the string of injuries the Sox have had to endure, they need a healthy body returning. Buchholz last pitched on June 26, lasting just one inning before he was forced from the game with an injury. The 25-year old right-hander had been pitching very well up to that point, allowing just six earned runs in 36 1/3 innings. The Red Sox still need some bats to come back in the lineup evidenced by their .198 batting average their last six games and scoring just 16 runs. The A's got a major setback to their batting lineup with the loss of right fielder Ryan Sweeney. Sweeney was leading the team in hitting (.294) but will miss the rest of the season with surgery to his knee. Gio Gonzalez starts for the A's. Gonzo is 8-6 with a 3.63 ERA this season. Gonzo has had quality starts in four of his last five outings. With the exception of July 7 where he gave up five runs to the Yankees, the southpaw has allowed just one run or fewer in the other four starts. What I like about this UNDER three things. First, we have two solid pitchers on the mound, second we get a huge ballpark in Oakland that will be very friendly to the pitchers and third, both teams are hurting with injuries to some key offensive players. This game is shaping up to be a low scoring affair so I will go UNDER here on Wednesday.
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07-13-10 | National League v. American League UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 42 h 34 m | Show |
The All Star game has added meaning in so much as the winning team gets home field advantage for their league in the World Series. That has gone to the AL for so long that you would have to go back to Bill Clinton's first term for the last time a NL squad has won this game. The last four All Star games have been relatively low scoring, with 7,7, 9 and 5 runs being scored respectively. The four before those were all high scoring with 12, 13, 13 and 14 runs. This year's classic is played at Anaheim Stadium, home of the Angels. This park underwent major changes in the late 90's which really changed this ballpark from that of a hitters park to more of a pitcher's park. Angel Stadium ranks about 19th in the stadium list of how hitters do at home compared to the on the road. This means Angels hitters actually do a bit better hitting away from home, again because of the size of the park. Cincinnati and the Yankees have the two most hitter friendly stadiums this season. Most people always think of Dodger Stadium as a pitcher's park, but this season Angel Stadium actually is more friendly to the pitchers in LA. That being said, I am looking to play this game UNDER again this season. There usually is no shortage of good arms on either side and with the heavier night air coming off the ocean of Angel Stadium, I look for another low scoring game. Take the UNDER.
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07-01-10 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Minnesota Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
Take: over the total.
Reason: Total of the Month: Rays/Twins Over the total. Minnesota is an excellent offensive park and notice that the last 15 home games they are 9-6 over the total. After a long road trip the Twins came home to play the Tigers and averaged 7 runs in the series. That was after getting shut out twice on their trip, along with games where the offense scored 1, 3 and 4 runs. Minnesota is 6th in the AL in runs scored, while Tampa Bay comes to town ranked 4th in runs. 34-year old Carl Pavano does not have overpowering stuff, despite a very good season. Notice that he has a 2.82 ERA on the road, but a full run higher (3.81) at home. This is a tough park to thrown in and I'm concerned that the veteran Pavano is off two straight complete games, needing 110 pitches for the complete game Saturday. The team is 2-1 over the total his last three home games, while the Rays are 2-0 over in Jeff Niemann's last two road starts. Play the Rays/Twins Over the total. |
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06-25-10 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Oakland Athletics UNDER 8 | Top | 4-14 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
06/25 07:05 PM MLB (973) PITTSBURGH PIRATES VS (974) OAKLAND ATHLETICS edit
Take: UNDER Reason: High Roller Total: Pirates/A's Under the total. If you like offensive baseball, you won't be watching this one. Oakland is a huge park, tough to get hits and home runs in. The Pirates comes to town, 3,000 miles away from home with the worst offensive in the NL. The offense couldn't even muster many runs in Texas on this trip, a great hitter's park. A pair of pitchers are on the mound who don't walk anyone, which is a huge plus, especially in a big park like this. Brad Lincoln of the Pirates has 6 walks in 18 innings and the A's have never faced him. The Oakland offense is third worst in the AL. Starter Ben Sheets has done well in this park, with a 2-2 record and a 2.79 ERA at home (0-5 on the road), with opponents hitting just .220 off him in this park this season. Can't see many runs being scored by either team. Play the Pirates/A's Under the total. |
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06-20-10 | Chicago White Sox v. Washington Nationals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
The Chicago White Sox have one of the hottest pitching staffs going right now. The Sox have a nifty 1.87 ERA over their last nine games. Today's starter, Freddy Garcia has been a big part of that good staff, as he looks for his sixth straight win here on Sunday. Garcia is 7-4 with a 4.94 ERA this season though he has never faced the Nationals. Garcia gets to face a slumping Nationals team that has lost five straight games and has hit just .182 and scored an average of 2.2 runs during the losing streak. So far in this series the Nationals have scored just one run, and that doesn't look to improve much here on Sunday. Very good WHite Sox pitching coupled with an anemic Washington lineup has me looking UNDER in this contest.
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06-18-10 | New York Mets v. New York Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: 20-Star High Roller Total: Mets/Yankees Over the total. The NY Mets offense has been getting healthy the last month and the offense has been on a tear the last three weeks during the red-hot streak. They averaged 7 runs per game the last five contests. The new Yankee Stadium is a small park, easy for hits and home runs. The NY Mets offense faces erratic righty Javier Vazquez, who has a 5.43 ERA with 27 walks in 63 innings, a poor ratio. At least he has a dynamite offense working in his favor, tops in baseball in runs scored and on base percentage. You may not know much about Mets lefty Hisanori Takahashi, but he's not some kid up from the minors: He's 35-years old. He has been inconsistent with his strikeout totals since being converted to a starter. Teams are starting to get a book on him, with a 6.61 ERA his last three starts, and the Yankees have already faced him once. Look for an offensive show in the Bronx. Play the Mets/Yankees Over the total. |
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06-17-10 | Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 187 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: NBA Finals Game of the Year: Celtics/Lakers Under the total in Game 7. It has been a defensive series all the way, at 5-1 under the total. And many of these games haven't even been close to the total, with the losing team scoring 67, 86, 89, 84, 94 and 89 points. The Celtics are a veteran team that won a title with defense in 2008 and that has led the way in the 2010 playoffs. Since the start of Round 2, Boston is on a 12-6-1 run under the total. The Lakers had scored over 100 points in 11 straight playoff games until the Celtics beat them in Game 2, 103-94. The Lakers haven't come close to topping 100 since. The Lakers turned it up defensively the last game, dominating the paint and holding the Celtics to 67 points and 33% shooting. And now, with a Game 7, EVERYTHING is on the line, so expect both teams to bring their best defensive effort. I expect a slow, even cautious defensive game with so much at stake and the whole world watching. Play the Celtics/Lakers Game 7 Under the total. |
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06-10-10 | Boston Red Sox v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: 20-Star High Roller Total: Red Sox/Indians Under the total. The Boston pitching staff has really been dominant the last month, fueling their impressive run back into the pennant race. The defense, too, has improved greatly since a bad April. They have been great on this road trip, allowing 0, 4, 2, 1 and 2 runs in five straight games. The first two games of this series sailed under the total. Ace lefty Jon Lester (7-2, 2.73 ERA) has been on a roll, with a 3-0 record and a 0.47 ERA his last three starts. Opponents are hitting .195 off him on the season. He faces a Cleveland offense that is third worst in the AL in runs scored. One bright spot for the Indians is righty Mitch Talbot (7-4, 3.54 ERA), who has good stuff. Talbot earned his seventh win of the season on Saturday by limiting the White Sox to one run and six hits over seven innings. In his last three starts he has walked only 3 batters with a 2.66 ERA. Look for a defensive duel, play the Red Sox/Indians Under the total. |
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06-04-10 | Cincinnati Reds v. Washington Nationals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Reds/Nationals Under the total. Washington is a very large park, friendly to pitchers. The Nationals are 6-3 under the total their last nine home games. A pair of veteran aces take the mound here, ones who are pitching very well. Aaron Harang of the Reds has turned things around after a poor start, with a 2-0 record his last three starts, just 5 walks in 19 innings. He doesn't allow free passes, with a strong 52-15 strikeout to walk ratio. Veteran righty Livan Hernandez is having one of his best seasons, with a 2.15 ERA. He doesn't walk anyone, either. IN his 10 starts he has allowed 4 runs once, 3 runs once, and less than that in the other 8 starts. The team is 9-1 under the total in his 10 starts. Hernandez struck out four without walking a batter his last start, which is eight quality starts in 10 trips to the hill. Opponents are hitting .222 off him, meaning this total is too high. Play the Reds/Nationals Under the total. |
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05-27-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 217.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year: Suns/LA Lakers Over the total in Game 5. The Lakers are on a 12-3-1 run over the total, and 7-0-1 over the total the last eight games against uptempo Utah and Phoenix. The last game the Phoenix reserves outscored the Laker reserves, 54-20, in the Suns' 115-106 victory on Tuesday night. The main problem is defense: Said Lakers Coach Phil Jackson: "We shot 49%, didn't we? That's pretty good. Nothing wrong with that. I wouldn't say we're struggling against the zone. I think we're struggling at the defensive end. That's where I see it." Kobe Bryant was even more to the point: "We lost the game because our defense sucked." Phoenix has found a flaw, attacking the LA bench, which is no surprise as it has been a weakness all season. On offense, the Lakers have a big size advantage, with 7-foot Andruw Bynum, 7-foot Paul Gasol and 6-10 Lamar Odom. Phoenix has the top offense in the NBA (110.4 ppg) with an attacking style behind 36-year old PG Steve Nash (16.6 ppg, 11 apg) and 27-year old Amar'e Stoudemire (23.2 ppg, 9 rpg). 6-6 Jason Richardson (15.7 ppg) adds more offensive punch and shoots 39% from beyond the arc. But their defense has been suspect, as the Lakers shot 58% and 56% in Games 1 and 2, scoring 124 and 128 points on this floor, 48.3% and 49.5% the last two. The last 18 meetings between these uptempo teams have gone 13-5 over the total. Play the Suns/Lakers Game 5 Over the total. |
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05-26-10 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 186.5 | Top | 92-113 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: 20-Star NBA High Roller Total: Magic/Celtics Game 5 Under the total. Game 5s of any series have so much at stake, as does this one. That means intense defense from both sides. For this game, the Magic -- the top ranked defense in the NBA during the regular season in field goal shooting percentage allowed -- must win or they go home. They really picked up the defense in Game 4 to stay alive, disrupting Boston all night. This has been a defensive series, at 4-0 or 3-0-1 under the total. Boston matches up great with Orlando. Their attention to defense in the playoffs has been incredible, wiping out top seeded Cleveland in six games (winning 4 of the final 5) and frustrating the Orlando Magic into 41.6% and 39% shooting in Games 1 and 2 on this floor, and only 71 points in Game 3. Boston matches up so well, with Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace and Glen Davis three big, physical bodies to harrass Dwight Howard, who has looked frustrated at times. The rest of the Boston strategy is to throw everybody along the perimeter defensively to get a hand in the face of every Orlando player taking a three-pointer, which is their game. Orlando was 5 of 22 from long range in Game 1 and has scored 88, 92, 71 and 96 points in the four games (the last one in OT). The Magic have seldom been able to set the tempo or smoothly execute pick-and-rolls, which has contributed to Rashard Lewis's poor overall play, with Kevin Garnett on him. Doc Rivers said, "Our focus is transition Defense. We don |
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05-22-10 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics UNDER 190 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
Take: Under
Reason: NBA High Roller Total: Magic/Celtics Under the total. Boston is up 2-0 and matches up great with Orlando. Their attention to defense in the playoffs has been incredible, wiping out top seeded Cleveland in six games (winning 4 of the final 5) and now frustrating the Orlando Magic into 41.6% and 39% shooting in Games 1 and 2 -- both on the road. Boston matches up so well, with Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace and Glen Davis three big, physical bodies to harrass Dwight Howard, who has looked frustrated at times. The rest of the Boston strategy is to throw everybody along the perimeter defensively to get a hand in the face of every Orlando player taking a three-pointer, which is their game. Orlando was 5 of 22 from long range in Game 1 and holding them to 88 and 92 points in the two games. The Magic have seldom been able to set the tempo or smoothly execute pick-and-rolls, which has contributed to Rashard Lewis's 4-for-16 shooting slump. Doc Rivers said this week, "Our focus is transition Defense. We don |
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05-18-10 | Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Baseball Total: Red Sox/Yankees Over the total. The Boston offense has gotten better the last three weeks, with more overs than unders. After a tough April, players like J.D. Drew and David Ortiz have been hitting. The offense will be fine in the new Yankee Stadium, which is an easy home run park. The real question is: Can the Red Sox prevent any runs? Josh Beckett takes the hill and he's been awful all year, with a 7.46 ERA. He missed a few days with bad problems and his last three starts he's been erratic, with an 11.15 ERA. Beckett and the Sox bullpen have had trouble getting the Bronx Bombers out, the top offense in baseball. 5 of the first 6 meetings between these teams sailed over the total. C.C. Sabathia is an ace, but Boston has seen plenty of him and done well against him, with a 3.74 ERA all time against him (7.20 ERA this season). Look for an offensive show in the Bronx; Play the Red Sox/Yankees Over the total. |
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05-17-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 210.5 | Top | 107-128 | Win | 100 | 75 h 9 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: 20-Star High Roller Total: Game 1 Suns/Lakers Over the total. The last 14 meetings between these uptempo teams have gone 9-5 over the total. Phoenix has the top offense in the NBA (110.4 ppg) with an attacking style behind 36-year old PG Steve Nash (16.6 ppg, 11 apg) and 27-year old Amar'e Stoudemire (23.2 ppg, 9 rpg). 6-6 Jason Richardson (15.7 ppg) adds more offensive punch and shoots 39% from beyond the arc. Richardson is averaging 21.9 points and shooting 51% in the playoffs. The Lakers have no problem going uptempo with anyone, and there's no doubt Phoenix will try and push the pace. The Lakers are on an 8-3-1 run over the total, and 3-0-1 over the total the last four games against uptempo Utah. The Suns will get plenty of production from the ageless Steve Nash (36 years old, averaging 17.8 points and nine assists in the playoffs) and the effervescent Amare Stoudemire, but the Suns are a 31-4 when guard Jason Richardson scores 20 or more points, including their victories in a Western Conference semifinals sweep of San Antonio. Look for a wide open Game 1, Play the Suns/Lakers Over the total. |
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05-16-10 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 189.5 | Top | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 46 h 46 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: 30-Star NBA Playoff Total of the Year: Celtics/Magic Game 1 Under the total. Orlando has turned up the defense in the postseason, on a 5-2 run under the total. Actually, they've been a terrific defensive team all season, ranked No. 1 in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, allowing .438% shooting. They take on a Boston team that won a championship in 2008 with great defense and is back playing it again because Kevin Garnett is healthy. Boston just threw a blanket on the Cavaliers in their 6-game upset, on a 3-2 run under the total. Outside of the Game 3 debacle, the Celtics held the Cavs to 86, 87, 88 and 85 points the last four games. I wonder how in sync the Boston offense will be after that physical, grueling series with Cleveland. And I wonder how in sync the Orlando offense will be, not only facing a fired up Boston defense, but the fact that they haven't played a game in 6 days. When you examine the regular season meetings between these teams, you see nothing but MONSTER defensive efforts: 83-78, 86-77 and 96-94...and those were just regular season games, so much more is at stake here. Orlando is the second worst free throw shooting team in the NBA, so look for a lower scoring game than oddsmakers anticipate. Play the Celtics/Magic Game 1 Under the total. |
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05-04-10 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 199.5 | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Jazz/Lakers Under. Lost in the shuffle of the LA comeback in Game 1 was the Lakers' defense, holding uptempo Utah to 44% shooting. The Lakers were in command of Game 1 as their frontcourt had a +5 rebounding edge, as Pau Gasol had 25 points and 12 rebounds while blocking five shots. This is a tough situational spot for the Jazz, who had to finish up a series against the Denver Nuggets, then play Game 1 less than two days later on the road and now Game 2 -- so that's 3 games in 6 nights of intense aaction. It's going to be difficult on their offense with tired legs, especially playing 2 straight on the road. LA has put its game face on the last three games, all wins, ripping the Thunder on this court in Game 5 and winning at Oklahoma City as a dog. These teams have played 5 times this season and the under is 4-1. With so much at stake, look for both teams to play better defense. Play the Jazz/LA Lakers Under the total in Game 2. |
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04-26-10 | Blazers(Portland) v. Suns(Phoenix) OVER 202 | Top | 88-107 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
The Portland Trailblazers tied up this series with Phoenix at two games apiece. After looking terrible in the previous two games, the Blazers got an injection of Brandon Roy for game four. Roy, who was expected to miss this series with an injury, came back in game four and gave the Blazers the shot in the arm they desperately needed. "I didn't come back to have one good game," Roy said. "I came back to try to help this team win the series. It's important we get over the emotional high of last game and get ready to play a tough basketball game at Phoenix." This is the pivotal game for Phoenix, as they Suns can ill afford to go down 3-2 and return to Portland for a game six. For some reason, the Suns abandoned their aggressive, fast paced style that have garnered them two blowout wins in games two and three. The Suns only hope here is to return to that style of play. Suns coach Alvin Gentry probably put it best after the loss. "I don't understand it. I really don't," he said. "That's the one thing we have to get away from. I keep telling everyone and I'll say it again: If you walk it up and they (Portland) get in a half-court situation I think their defense is as good as anybody's in the NBA." Expect to see Steve Nash push the tempo in this game and get the Blazers out of that half court defense. If that happens, then fully expect this game to go OVER the total on Monday.
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04-23-10 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 193.5 | Top | 90-94 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Total: Mavericks/Spurs Over the total. Dallas has plenty of strong offensive options, but this team is no defensive dynamo. That was a problem in Game 2 as San Antonio shot 48% while grabbing 51 rebounds (16 offensive). Even in losing Game 1, San Antonio shot 50%. The Spurs also have a ton of offensive options, with Tim Duncan up front, Tony Parker in the backcourt and Manu Ginobili from everywhere. San Antonio is not the dominant defensive team they used to be when winning championships, as age has crept up on them. And Dirk Nowitzki has tallied 24 and 36 points in two games. If you need free throws late in the game, Dallas is a lock, tops in the NBA from the free throw line, with Dirk making 88 in a row before missing one the last game. The Spurs are averaging 97.5 ppg in the playoffs and the over is 7-1 their last 8 home games. I see an offensive show, play the Mavericks/Spurs Over the total. |
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04-19-10 | Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets OVER 212.5 | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
The oddsmaker definitely has adjusted the total here in game two. I thought the total for game one was way off and I gave out the OVER as one of my 20* Hi Roller plays, an easy winner. They have adjusted a bit here, pushing the total up about 3-4 points, but I'm still sticking with the OVER. In fact, I'm coming right back with another of my 20* Hi Roller totals on this contest. Many teams like to slow the pace down in the postseason, but not these teams. They have loads of offensive weapons and love the uptempo game. They mirror each other in so many ways. The Nuggets have Kenyon Martin back, but the defense has really slipped the last month without coach George Karl around. That defense gets a tough test as Utah shoots 49% from the field as a team, tops in the NBA. Utah has a sparkplug guard in Derron Williams (18.6 ppg, 10.6 apg), and a string of hard working young legs in Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Paul Millsap (24 rebounds in a game last week). These teams are 8-0 over the total their last 8 meetings in Denver, and 10-1 over the total their last 11 meetings on this court. And the point total they struck for in the last 7 meetings: 231, 218, 214, 216, 233, 229 and 218 and 239 in Saturday's contest. Play the Jazz/Nuggets Over the total again and don't worry about the line adjustment.
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04-17-10 | Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets OVER 209 | Top | 113-126 | Win | 100 | 53 h 36 m | Show |
Take: over the total.
Reason: High Roller Total: Jazz/Nuggets Over the total. Many teams like to slow the pace down in the postseason, but not these teams. They have loads of offensive weapons and love the uptempo game. They mirror each other in so many ways. The Nuggets have Kenyon Martin back, but the defense has really slipped the last month without coach George Karl around. That defense gets a tough test as Utah shoots 49% from the field as a team, tops in the NBA. Utah has a sparkplug guard in Derron Williams (18.6 ppg, 10.6 apg), and a string of hard working young legs in Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Paul Millsap (24 rebounds in a game last week). These teams are 7-0 over the total their last 7 meetings in Denver, and 9-1 over the total their last 10 meetings on this court. And the point total they struck for in the last 7 meetings: 231, 218, 214, 216, 233, 229 and 218. Play the Jazz/Nuggets Over the total. |
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04-15-10 | Chicago White Sox v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
Reason: Inner Circle Total of the Year: White Sox/Blue Jays Over the total.
Toronto is an offensive park whether the roof is open or not, an easy home run park along with artificial turf. These teams have averaged 5 runs apiece in this series -- even with Ricky Romero losing a no-hit bid with no outs in the top of the 8th in one of the games. Freddy Garcia goes for the White Sox, a guy who walked 5 batters in 7 innings in his first start. His career numbers against Toronto are also weak, with a 5.50 ERA walking 35 in 73 innings (85 hits). Toronto's offense has been very strong, helping them to the top of the AL East, led by resurgent Vernon Wells. They go with Dana Eveland on the mound, who came over from Oakland. Eveland has had control problems of his own, walking 26 in 44 innings last season and 77 in 168 innings in 2008, which explains ERAs of 4.34 and 7.16. In his career (283 innings) he's walked 144 for an ERA of 5.39. This is a low total for an AL game in this park, and neither starter is even close to an ace. Play the White Sox/Blue Jays Over the total. |
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04-10-10 | Boston Celtics v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 190.5 | Top | 105-90 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Celtics/Bucks Under the total. Both teams will bring their 'A' game intensity on defense, as they are in a race for playoff seeding in the East. And these defenses have talent. The Bucks have been a defensive revelation the second half of the season, on a 22-11-1 run under the total. They just hels the Bulls to 74 points in a game with playoff-type intensity, and lost 87-86 to Charlotte in another game that sailed under. Milwaukee is deadlocked with Miami for the No 5 playoff slot. They like to slow the pace down, and that's fine with the aging Celtics, as they prefer playing a slow, defensive-oriented tempo. They've struggled all season against athletic, uptempo teams, too. The Celtics are tied with Atlanta for playoff seeding, so they will bring their best defensive effort here and be thankful to slow the pace down. The Celtics have played a whole string of uptempo teams of late, but the last time they played a defensive-oriented squad, it was a 94-73 loss to San Antonio, going under the total by 25 points! This has all the makings of a slow-paced, defensive battle between two playoff teams. Play the Celtics/Bucks Under the total. |
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04-08-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 203.5 | Top | 96-98 | Win | 100 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
Reason: High Roller Total: Lakers/Nuggets Under the total.
The Lakers are a very good defensive team, despite all the flashy offensive stars, 9th in the NBA in points allowed and 5th in field goal shooting defense. They have been an under the total team the second half of the season, and currently are on a 7-3 run under. The Lakers have lost three of their last four games with the bench play just awful: In those three loses, their bench has been outscored 110-38. Center Andruw Bynum has sat out eight games because of a strained Achilles' tendon and might not play again in regular season. So if Phil Jackson wants to rest the starters any, they aren't getting any offense from the pine. The reserves scored only four points in an ugly loss to San Antonio; The reserves were outscored 42-12 by the New Orleans Hornets' reserves and 48-22 by the Atlanta Hawks' reserves. They run into a Denver team that is playing tough defense, right in the thick of the West's playoff seedings race. Denver has held three of the last five opponents to 96 points or less, though the offense hasn't been sharp because Denver forward Kenyon Martin (knee) is still out. Denver is on an 8-2 run under the total. With the defending champs in town, look for plenty of defense by the home team (when they met 5 weeks ago it was a 95-89 game, 25 points under the total. Play the Lakers/Nuggets Under the total. |
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04-03-10 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 188 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: 20-Star NBA High Roller Total: Bobcats/Bulls Under the total. This game should have a playoff-type atmosphere, as both teams are fighting down the stretch. Charlotte is in great shape to make the playoffs as a No. 6, 7 or 8 seed because they are so strong defensively under Coach Larry Brown. They are 7th in the NBA in field goal shooting defense and tops in points allowed (93.6 ppg). This is a slow-down defensive team, and there's no reason for them to go uptempo playing their third game in four nights plus the second of a back to back spot. Chicago is out of the playoffs at present but not too far behind Toronto for that last spot. Chicago is getting healthy, with Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah back. They are playing like a motivated team, especially on defense, on a recent 7-4 run under the total. Coach Vinny Del Negro confirmed the coaching staff has discussed starting Joakim Noah for the final seven games of the season, a strong inside force. Charlotte plays its best offensively at home, but they are 5-0 under the total their last 5 road games. Chicago is 4-1 under the total its last 5 home games. With quite a bit at stake, look for an intense defensive game. Play the Bobcats/Bulls Under the total! |
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04-03-10 | Michigan State v. Butler UNDER 126 | Top | 50-52 | Win | 100 | 47 h 52 m | Show |
Take: Under
Reason: Can't see much scoring here, as Butler slows the tempo down (9-3 under run), as does Michigan State (6-4-1 under run). Butler (32-4) is about tempo and defense, allowing 59.6 ppg. The Bulldogs slow the pace down, on a 3-0 run under the total allowing 45, 59, 52, 59 and 56 points the last five games. They beat Syracuse (63-59 as +6 dog) and K-State (63-56 as +4), while on a 9-3 run under the total. They are patient on offense and have excellent low post defenders with 6-9 soph Gordon Hayward (15.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg), 6-8 junior Matt Howard (11.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and 6-3 senior F Willie Veasley (10 ppg, 4.3 rpg) up front. Michigan State (28-8 SU; 15-19 ATS) held uptempo Tennessee to 69 points and beat slow-down Northern Iowa, 59-52. It's tough to see the Spartans running as their depth is hurting: Michigan State is without its top scorer, Kalin Lucas (14.8 ppg), out 4-6 months (lost 2 weeks ago). Also, Michigan State guard Chris Allen (8.5 ppg) is playing but with a torn ligament, plus forward Delvin Roe (the sixth leading scorer) has a torn meniscus in his right knee and is expected to have surgery once the Spartans' season is over. Rose shot 1-for-4 with 0 rebounds (though a team leading 3 blocks) the last game. I see a lot of defense from start to finish with so much at stake in this slow-paced battle. Play Michigan State/Butler Under the total! |
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03-31-10 | Clippers(LA) v. Raptors(Toronto) OVER 204 | Top | 92-114 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
Reason: 20-Star High Roller Total: Clippers/Raptors Over the total.
The Clippers have been getting their offense in gear, topping 99 or more in four of six recent games. They have offensive talent with point guard Baron Davis, Drew Gooden, Chris Kaman and Eric Gordon. Of course, the defense has been useless all season no matter who the coach is, allowing .468% shooting, 22nd in the league. They take on a Toronto team that has awful transitional defense, something the Clippers and Davis can exploit. Toronto is just as bad on defense, allowing .466% shooting (20th) and 105.5 ppg -- fourth worst. They had a big game at home against Utah and got torched in a 26-point loss, giving up 113 points. They just played two defensive-oriented teams in Miami and Charlotte and allowed 97 and 101 points. This is a difficult scheduling spot for the Clippers, their 3rd game in 4 nights and the second of a back to back road spot. They are 7-3 over the total in the second of back to back road situations, allowing 109 ppg. I can't see either team stopping the other, so look for an offensive show. Play the LA Clippers/Raptors Over the total. |
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03-24-10 | Utah Jazz v. Toronto Raptors OVER 214 | Top | 113-87 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
Take: over the total.
Reason: High Roller Total: Jazz/Raptors Over the total. The Toronto transition defense is just terrible, a combination of too many aging legs and offensive players ill-suited for defense. And who comes to town: Young, uptempo Utah! Toronto is allowing 110 ppg at home this season and overall is 20th in the NBA in points allowed. They are in a truly wretched defensive stretch right now, giving up over 100 points in eight of the last nine games. Utah is loaded with offensive players, from Mehmet Okur, C.J. Miles, Carlos Boozer and sparkplug guard Deron Williams. Williams had 22 points and 11 assists the last game, a 110-97 win over a strong Boston defense. Williams got his 36th double-double. Utah is fifth in the NBA in scoring at 103.7 ppg and is on an 11-5 run over the total. Both teams are rested for this one, so look for an uptempo game with no defense. Play the Jazz/Raptors Over the total. |
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03-17-10 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Utah Jazz OVER 214 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
Reason: NBA High Roller Total: Timberwolves/Jazz Over the total.
Minnesota is a terrible defensive team, surrendering 106.8 ppg and .475% shooting by opponents. Youth is a part of the problem, but another part is that the organization is building around young offensive players. There are no stellar defensive players, individually or as a unit, plus the coach doesn't know how to teach 'D'. This is a terrible situational spot, as well, playing the second of a back to back road spot, after running up and down the court with Phoenix last night. Minnesota is 9-2-1 over the total in the second of back to backs. Utah is rested for this one, an uptempo team behind Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams that averages 103.4 ppg (fifth best in the NBA). They are on a 9-3 run over the total and will run right at the tired visitors. The last six meetings between these teams have gone over the total, plus 14-3 over the last 17 meetings. Look for a lot of layups by the home team and plenty of points. Play the Timberwolves/Jazz Over the total. |
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03-15-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Golden State Warriors OVER 222 | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
The LA Lakers maintain a three game lead in the west over the Nuggets and 3 1/2 games over the Mavericks. The Lakers have won two straight games and six of their last 10. Meanwhile Golden State has a modest three game winning streak of its own. While the Warriors have no hopes of post season, teams always get some satisfaction of playing good and beating the Lakers. That's the kind of effort I expect here today. I'm taking the OVER here on Monday between these teams. They have already met three times this season with two of the three going OVER with point totals of 227 and 242. But what really stands out for me in this matchup is when the teams meet up north. The last 44 times these teams have met at Golden State they have gone over 30 times, that's just over 68% of the time. And the Lakers have scored a lot of points too. In the last 12 trips to GST, the Lakers have scored 110 points or more in 10 of those contest. And this season the Warriors are dead last in the league in points allowed (111.1 ppg). I expect a high scoring affair here as Koke and Company have little trouble scoring points. If we can get Golden State motivated, which they should be, then this is an OVER contest.
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03-12-10 | New York Knicks v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 210.5 | Top | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Total: Knicks/Memphis Over the total. The NY offense is back to a run and gun style, on an 11-5 run over the total. Of course, that hasn't helped in the win column, giving up over 104 ppg. The Knicks have allowed over 100 points in 13 of the last 16 games, and 110 or more in 11 of those. The offense averages over 100 points, but the soft defense allows .480% shooting by opponents -- that is tied with New Jersey for last in the NBA. Things get tougher this game as they head to uptempo Memphis, a team with a ton of young offensive talent with Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph. They come off a stunner, shooting 55% at Boston in a 111-91 upset. O.J. Mayo made seven of eight shots en route to 17 points. They are on a 5-2 run over the total. The Memphis offense will be motivated after that big win at Boston, as they are still 3 games out of the Western Conference |
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03-09-10 | Boston Celtics v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 188 | Top | 84-86 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Celtics/Bucks Under the total. In the past two months, the Celtics have struggled against inferior opponents (Nets, Bulls) blown big leads against elite teams (Cavaliers, Magic), and have been beaten in the final minute (Lakers). The problem has been a sporadic defense, along with injuries. But this team is very talented, especially on the defensive end -- WHEN they have their heads on to play tough defense. And what has happened the last three games? All under the total with sensational defensive efforts, allowing 86, 83 and 80 points. endrick Perkins was back after missing the Celtics' game against the Pistons with flu-like symptoms. Perkins is a terrific big body in the paint, an excellent defender, 3-0 under since he came back. They should have lost the last game, at home to the Wizards, as the offense was terrible, but the Green hung tough with a monster defensive effort and were able to rally late. so they've gone under the total the last three games by 6, 14 and 24 points, an average of 14 points under the Vegas number. Milwaukee's second half surge has been impressive, and it's been molded with a very impressive defense. This team used to have a run-and-gun reputation, but they have become a tough defensive team. Oddsmakers haven't caught up, either, as the Bucks are on a 14-5 run under the total. Can't see as much scoring as oddsmakers anticipate; Play the Celtics/Bucks Under the total. |
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03-07-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets OVER 206 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
Normally when we think of the Portland Trailblazers we think "defense." I don't think the word "OVER" comes first to mind. But surprisingly this team has some good over spots and today is one of them. I'm going with the OVER here. First, the Blazers have been a good over bet on the road as the last three road games have gone OVER and nine of the last 11 away contest have gone OVER. And what kind of surprised me even more than that was the fact that Portland has scored over 100 points in each of its last nine away games. Second, we couple this road scoring binge with the fact that the Denver Nuggets are the 22nd ranked scoring defense in the league. The Nuggets allow an average of 102.56 ppg overall this season. Thirdly, we toss in a Denver offense that has gone OVER the total in four straight home games and 10 of its last 13 home games. The Nuggets have the second ranked scoring offense in the league and the top rated scoring offense at home (112.22 ppg). All in all, this game shapes up as a good old fashioned shoot out. I'll take the OVER here as one of my red-hot Hi Roller totals and look for at least 210 or more in this one.
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03-05-10 | Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 197.5 | Top | 96-86 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Celtics/76ers Under the total. In the past two months, the Celtics have struggled against inferior opponents (Nets, Bulls) blown big leads against elite teams (Cavaliers, Magic), and have been beaten in the final minute (Lakers). The problem has been a sporadic defense, along with injuries. But this team is very talented, especially on the defensive end -- WHEN they have their heads on to play tough defense. The Celtics put their game faces on the last contest, cruising to a 104-80 win, holding Charlotte to 36 percent shooting. Kendrick Perkins was back after missing the Celtics' game against the Pistons with flu-like symptoms. Perkins is a terrific big body in the paint, an excellent defender. That game sailed under the total and they are a team capable of ripping off a string of unders -- like a recent 12-3 under the total run -- when they have their best defensive effort. This is a divisional rivalry game. The 76ers are without Allen Iverson and have score 95 or fewer points in 3 of the last 4 games. They are also on a 15-9 run under the total. The last time they met on this floor earlier this season, the game went under the total by double digits as the 76ers scored 74 points. Play the Celtics/76ers Under the total. |
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03-03-10 | Detroit Pistons v. New York Knicks OVER 204.5 | Top | 104-128 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
Reason: High Roller Total: Pistons/Knicks Over the total.
On the plus side, the Detroit offense has been better the second half of the season because their top offensive players are finally healthy. On the flip side, the defense has been playing poorly. They gave up 101 in a win over the Spurs and 97 in an ugly loss to the Clippers. They also gave up 116 in a blowout loss to Orlando. This is a tough situational spot, playing their fifth road game over the last six games, plus the second of a back to back spot, taking on the rival Celtics last night. Hard to see Detroit having the legs to play defense here. That means the Knicks will run right at them, which is their preferred style anyway. The Knicks are rested and running, scoring 109, 106 and 119 the last three games. But the main reason they are on a 9-1 run over the total is a defense that has gone to sleep (thanks, Tracy McGrady), allowing 110 points or more in 9 of the last 10 games! And some of the games have been frightening, allowing 121 to Oklahoma City, 110 to struggling Boston, 116 to Washington (in a win) and 120 to Memphis. In back to back games against the Bulls, the Knicks allowed 115 and 118 points, so it's not that the opponent has a hot shooting hand; NY just doesn't feel like making an effort on defense and we'll grab another shootout. Pistons/Knicks Over the total. |
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03-01-10 | New York Knicks v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 210 | Top | 93-124 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show |
I'm looking at the OVER in tonight's contest between the Knicks and Cavs. It hasn't been a great trade yet for the Knicks since they acquired Tracy McGrady from the Rockets. McGrady sat out the second half of Saturday's game against the Grizzlies saying he didn't want any setbacks after his knee was sore. Having played in back-to-back nights, MrGrady felt it best to sit the second half and not push his return. Or could it have been his ineffectiveness in the 1st half, going 0-3 and not logging a single point. Not exactly the production the Knicks were expecting. Still, the Knicks have been a great bet for OVER plays lately, having eclipsed the total in three straight games and nine of the last 10. Poor defense has a lot to do with it though, having allowed over 110 points in the last three games and nine of the last 10 games. Let me say that again, they have allow OVER 110 points in nine of the last 10 games. Tonight they have to face the league's seventh highest scoring team in Cleveland. I fully expect this Cavs team to get at or over 120 points in this one. The Cavs have scored over 100 points in 10 of the last 12 games. They have had two days of rest for this contest and next up is lowly New Jersey. I also like the fact that Shaquille O'Neal will be lost to the Cavs, likely for the rest of the regular season with surgery on this thumb. If anything the loss of O'Neal hurts the club more on defense and any less of that is good for our OVER. The key here will be if New York can get us at or just over 100 points. If they can, this one should fly over. Take the OVER as our Hi Roller Total for Monday.
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02-26-10 | Utah Jazz v. Sacramento Kings OVER 201.5 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
NBA High Roller Total: Jazz/Kings Over the total.
Sacramento is terrible on defense, allowing 47% shooting -- 24th in the NBA. All those lay-ups allowed explains why they are giving up 105.8 ppg, fourth worst in the league. That's a bad mix here, as Utah comes to town with an uptempo attack shooting .49% from the field, No. 1 in the NBA. The Jazz offense has been clicking on this terrific winning streak they've been on the last two months. Carlos Boozer is on his way to validating the Jazz's decision to keep him for the remainder of the season, answering the call in the four games since general manager Kevin O'Connor's phone stopped ringing. The reigning Western Conference Player of the Week, Boozer helped the Jazz shrug off a 13-point deficit in the third quarter Wednesday and finished with 33 points and 16 rebounds on 13-for-16 shooting in a 102-93 victory over the Charlotte Bobcats. Sparkplug guard Deron Williams returned from a right quad contusion with 20 points and 12 assists. The Kings defense has really been soft of late, allowing 101, 104, 99 and 130 points the last four games -- all losses. All in all, look for far more offense this game than defense. Play the Jazz/Kings Over the total. |
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02-16-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 221.5 | Top | 109-95 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
Reason: NBA Total of the Year: Suns/Grizzlies Over the total.
Memphis is not a good team at defending the three-pointer, 19th in the league. And here comes the top team from long range into town, shooting .407% from beyong the arc. The Suns aren't always on their game in the second of back-to-back spots with veteran Steve Nash turning 36 this weekend. But they are well rested for this one after the All-Star break. Both teams prefer the uptempo game, ranked No. 1 and No. 6 in the NBA in points scored. Phoenix averages 109.9 points per contest. Memphis is on a 15-9 run over the total with a ton of talented mostly-young offensive players, but short on defense with Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and Marc Gasol. In fact, defensively Memphis is nonexistent, allowing 48% shooting by opponents -- third worst in the NBA. These teams played each other twice in January and both meetings sailed over the total. The last meeting went 18 points over the total in a 125-118 Phoenix win, and the Grizzlies won the other meeting in early January by scoring 128 points, running right at the Suns with their young lineup. The OVER is 9-2 the last 11 meetings between these teams, and 3-0 over this season averaging 236 points. Look for an offensive show all night long; Play the Suns/Grizzlies Over the total. |
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02-05-10 | Philadelphia 76ers v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 195.5 | Top | 101-94 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
High Roller Total, 76ers/Hornets Under. Philadelphia has been an under-machine, on a 10-2 run under the total. And one of those OVERs was in overtime. Neither of these teams is very good at shooting the basketball, ranked 19th and 20th in the NBA in field goal shooting. Making matters worse for the Hornets is the loss of star guard Chris Paul, a great scorer and play-maker. The All-Star point guard is out after knee surgery. With the Hornets in transition until Paul returns, forward James Posey had to spend substantial time in the backcourt the last game, a loss to Oklahoma City. Paul is expected to be sidelined up to a month, and the Hornets received more bad news when guard Marcus Thornton bruised his lower back after falling hard on a driving shot in the fourth quarter. Thornton, who scored a game-high 22 points, did not return for the final 7:59 and is listed as day to day. New Orleans squandered an opportunity to move back to the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference standings. New Orleans has gone under the total the last two games. Philadelphia prefers a slower tempo and has gone under 100 points in regulation in 9 of the last 11 games. Play the 76ers/Hornets Under the Total.
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02-03-10 | Chicago Bulls v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 194 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
High Roller Total: Bulls/76ers Over the total.
The hot streak the Chicago Bulls have been on has been sparked by offense, mainly by the play of guard Derrick Rose. On that terrific road trip they just concluded, Rose averaged 23.6 points and 5.4 assists and the second-year guard consistently displayed his newfound comfort level in taking over games down the stretch. Center Brad Miller is a far better passer and offensive force than defensive one. This will be the Bulls' 8th road game over the last 9 games, plus the second of a back to back spot. Tired legs hurts the defense more than offense. In the last three games playing the second of a back to back spot, the Bulls are 3-0 over the total, going over by wide margins. The 76ers are rested and have allowed 98 ppg the last 5 games, plus allow 47% shooting by opponents, one of the worst marks in the league. Look for an offensive show, play the Bulls/76ers Over the total! |
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01-29-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 201.5 | Top | 99-91 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
NBA High Roller Total: Lakers/76ers Over the total.
Philadelphia is a lousy defensive team, allowing over 47% shooting by opponents -- 7th worst in the NBA. They also allow over 100 ppg. The Lakers come to town with so many offensive options inside and out, alongside superstar Kobe Bryant. LA is sixth in the NBA in scoring, but the defense hasn't been sharp on the road. Coach Phil Jackson said, "Our middle is really soft. We're giving up a lot of penetration and whenever you give up that amount of penetration you're going to get hurt both inside, outside and usually at the foul line. It's a combination of both our guards keeping guys in front of them and our big guys reacting to help." They just went three straight games over the total on this road trip, giving up 105 points in back to back games to Toronto and NY, and 105, 106, 103 and 96 points the last four games. In the loss to the Raptors, Toronto transformed 13 turnovers into 20 points. "There's no way we should have lost this game," Andruw Bynum said. "We had the scoring. We just can't stop them." Bynum is averaging 15.8 points and 8.4 rebounds this season, but his defense has lagged at times. The Lakers should have little trouble scoring on the 76ers as the offense has been red-hot on this trip, scoring 115, 105, 115 and 118 points the last four games. Play the Lakers/Pacers Over the total. |
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01-25-10 | Orlando Magic v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 204.5 | Top | 94-99 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
The Orlando Magic have won three straight games after beating up on Charlotte Saturday, 106-95. The Magic are tied for first place in the East's Southeast Conference with Atlanta. Orlando is 9th in the league in scoring at 101.27 points per game and seventh in defensive scoring, allowing 96.20 points per game. The Memphis Grizzlies have been playing their best ball of the season, winners of seven of their last 10 games. The Grizzlies are in a very competitive Southwest division where only 5 1/2 games separate first from last. Memphis is coming off a win at home on Friday over Oklahoma City, 86-84. The win was the Grizzlies 10th straight at the FedEx Forum despite shooting a poor 39.2% from the field. Despite the low output, the Grizzlies have scored more than 100 points in four of their last six games and 12 of their last 17. The Grizzlies are fourth in the league in points scored with an average of 103.95 and 24th in points allowed with a 103.86 average. The biggest difference this season is that of Zach Randolph. Randolph is the club's leading scorer (20.9 ppg) and has averaged 25.8ppg and 14.4 rebounds during their 10 game home winning streak. Orlando plays good defense, but Memphis is shooting well at home during this streak and they should easily break 100 points. Consider the fact that Memphis doesn't play the best defense and this game will go OVER tonight.
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01-22-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. New York Knicks OVER 200.5 | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
High Roller Total: Lakers/Knicks Over the total.
The uptempo Lakers and Knicks meet here, with NY 13th in scoring in the league, the Lakers 6th. The Knicks have had 3 full days off for this and it's a great spot to go uptempo as the defending champion Lakers are in the second of a back to back road spot, playing at Cleveland last night. The Knicks have their sparkplug back and it is paying dividends. Nate Robinson scored 27 points Monday to lead the New York Knicks to a 99-91 victory over Detroit. Robinson was benched for 14 games last month before coach Mike D'Antoni returned him to the rotation, needing the guard's energy off the bench. The last time they played an uptempo team, the Knicks lost 114-102 to Toronto -- and the Lakers have better offensive options. Look for an offensive show in this national TV game. Play the Lakers/Knicks Over the total. |
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01-20-10 | Utah Jazz v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 193.5 | Top | 105-98 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
High Roller Total, Jazz/Spurs Over the total: Two of the three meetings between these teams have gone over the total this season. Going back even further, six of last seven in series have gone OVER. Utah comes in on a 5-2 run over the total, an athletic young teams that loves the uptempo style under sparkplug guard Deron Williams. Utah averages over 100 ppg. We think of the Spurs as a defensive oriented team, but they are terrific on offense this season averaging 101 ppg, 9th best in the NBA. Both teams have outstanding offensive options in the low post and long range. When teams collapse in the low post on Tim Duncan the Spurs love to kick it out for open threes and San Antonio is nailing 38% of its three pointers, this best in the league. The OVER is a sizzling 12-4-1 the last 17 games in series, including 7-1-1 Over the total the last 9 games in San Antonio. Play the Jazz/Spurs Over the total.
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01-09-10 | Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 197 | Top | 81-113 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
20-Star High Roller Total: Hawks/Magic Under the total.
This is a tough spot for both offenses with tired lgs: It's the 3rd game in 4 night for Atlanta, the 4th game in 5 nights for Orlando. It's also the second of a back to back spot for both teams. Orlando is a strong defensive teams, allowing 44% shooting by opponents -- 5th best in the NBA. Orlando has been a strong under team that last two weeks, plus the last two meetings between these teams have gone under the total. The last meeting wasn't even close, in a 93-76 Orlando win, sailing under the total by 26 points. That's not surprising, as these teams are No. 1and 2 in the division, so there is a playoff-type atmosphere when these teams get together. Orlando currently has a slight lead for first place in the Southeast division over the Hawks, so look for another tough defensive duel. Play the Hawks/Magic Under the total. |
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12-30-09 | Utah Jazz v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 200 | Top | 107-103 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
20* NBA Hi-Roller Total: Jazz/Timberwolves Over the total.
Utah is strong at home, but just 5-9 on the road because of lousy defense. Utah is 11-7 over the total the last 18 games and they will have tired legs as this is their 6th road game over the last 8 games. Two weeks ago they were a 13-point home favorite over this young Minnesota team, and lost 110-108, a game that sailed over the total by double digits. The Wolves won consecutive games last week for the first time since last April, and four of seven games after starting the season 3-21 because of good health on offense: The Timberwolves have been better since 7-footer Kevin Love came back, joining Al Jefferson up front and Damien Wilkins. Of course, the defense has been suspect often, which is common with young teams, allowing 104.5 ppg -- 25th in the NBA. They also allow over 47% shooting by opponents. Minnesota is 2-0 SU/ATS against the Jazz this season, dominating the glass (48-36) when they met the last time, and 2-0 over the total. The Jazz seemed content with trying to outscore the Timberwolves rather than slow them down and Utah got burned in the end. That is common with teams that rely more on offense than defense. Look for another uptempo game between these strong offenses. Play the Jazz/Timberwolves Over the total. |