Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +1.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
Grizzlies/Wolves 9:05: I like this one to go to Game 7. Wolves were clearly in Game 5 at Memphis. Once again, a significant foul line disparity favoring the Grizzlies 39 to 24 trips to the foul line. And Minnesota was in control of that game - outshooting them 45%/42% Floor/3 point to Memphis' 41%/25%. KAT and Edwards played large. Areas Minnesota needs to clean up on is allowing offensive rebounds and turnovers which helped do them in Tuesday. Minnesota has that strong home floor, loud home crowd, and with the way they're shooting, should force a Game 7. Minnesota 15-7-1 ATS off a SU loss and we'll grab them here. |
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04-28-22 | Mavs +1 v. Jazz | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show | |
Mavs/Jazz 10:00: Jazz get good news that Donovan Mitchell (hamstring) will play but it won't matter. Mavs have taken control of this series, Doncic is back in high performance form, and they're locking down Utah, especially from the perimeter. Jazz shot a horrendous 3 of 30 from the perimeter in Game 5, resulting in a 102-77 blowout loss. Mavs a super 41-6-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a home winning % above .600. Dallas is now 4-0 ATS in Utah. Mavericks learned their lesson last season when up on the Clippers 3-2 only to lose Game 6 at home and Game 7 on road. Stay on Dallas. |
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04-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +1.5 | 132-97 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
76ers/Raptors 7:00: Raptors gaining momentum while the pressure builds for Philadelphia. Here we go again for Doc Rivers inability to close out playoff series. His excuses are rolling and he's falling back on Embiid's torn ligament in his right thumb. Raptors' Nurse, on the other hand, masterful in pitting his long, athletic guys on Philadelphia. Toronto most likely won't have Van Fleet (hip) but Barnes and Trent Jr. have stepped up with Anuoby and Achiewa help Siakam control the boards; as a matter of fact, there was a 56-36 edge in points in the paint for Toronto in Game 5. Embiid clearly not himself and Harden doesn't have the gas to carry the team. Toronto 5-1 ATS as a home dog and 11-4 ATS at home vs a team with a winning road record. Sixers just 5-15 ATS last 20 in Toronto. We'll look for a Game 7. |
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04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -8.5 | 98-102 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
Denver/Golden State 10:00: Denver's Jokic finally got significant help in Game 4 as Morris and Gordon stepped up. Gordon was also instrumental on shutting down Golden State's Poole. Tonight, look for the Warriors to play much better on their home floor. Curry should get the start tonight. And Green should turn his game up a few notches. Nuggets just 2-7-1 ATS at Golden State. Warriors 5-0 ATS last 5 at home and should close it out with authority. |
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04-26-22 | Pelicans v. Suns -6 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
Pelicans/Suns 10:00: Not to take anything away from the Pelicans, for I had them Sunday, the free throw disparity was great. Pelicans' 42-15 advantage at the free throw line made it tough on Phoenix. New Orleans has young and energetic players like Herbert Jones and Alvarado off the bench that play relentless defense. Phoenix experience should come into play here. Paul should turn up his game a notch. He needs Ayton and Crowder to sustain their energy for the duration. And without Booker, Bridges and Payne have to play better. Suns the call. |
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04-26-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6 | 109-111 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
Wolves/Grizzlies 7:30: Quite a free throw disparity in Game 4 at Minnesota where the Wolves were at the charity stripe 40 times to the Grizzlies' 25. Morant wasn't getting the usual calls from the refs when he attacked the rim. Tonight, we'll look for different outcome. T-Wolves run cold after strong games as their 1-6 ATS mark off a win and 1-4 ATS as a playoff dog. Grizzlies 11-3 ATS off a SU loss should find their game. |
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04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | 94-97 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
Hawks/Heat 7:00: Heat throwing various lineups at Atlanta and it's working. Spoelstra utilizing his bench great and pestering Young relentlessly. Heat has been a strong home favorite at 40-19 ATS and I'm on them again. |
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04-25-22 | Jazz v. Mavs -2.5 | 77-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show | |
Jazz/Mavericks 9:30: Mavericks were 40 seconds away from going up in the series 3 games to 1. Mavericks Doncic did well Saturday but Dinwiddie, who really stepped up in his absence, was out of rhythm with his minutes cut significantly short. Mavericks had a day to figure it out and should deliver. They've been a good defensive team all season (#2 in NBA) and sport a 10-2 ATS mark after allowing 100+ points. Dallas has won 8 of last 9 in this series and should deliver on this floor. |
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04-25-22 | Celtics v. Nets -1 | 116-112 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
Celtics/Nets 7:00: All pressure on Durant and Irving after their mediocre performance in Game 3. Durant is having a horrible series and everyone and their brother is on his case. Celtics are getting extra physical with him shuttling in multiple bodies on him. Brooklyn needs to make an effective adjustment for someone else like Curry, Claxton, Dragic, Mills need to step up. We'll look for that to happen as Nets stay alive. |
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04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
Suns/Pelicans 9:30: Chris Paul did an amazing job in Games 1 and 3 putting the team on his shoulder and carrying them to victory. Only so much left in his tank though. And there is that glaring void at times without Booker (hamstring). New Orleans is a very good young team and veteran McCollum makes them dangerous. Pelicans 6-1 ATS off a SU loss. We'll grab New Orleans. |
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04-24-22 | Heat -125 v. Hawks | 110-86 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
Heat/Hawks 7:00: In Game 3, Lowry went down with a hamstring injury and Miami was unable to close out down the stretch. However, Strus doing a decent job at the 1 spot and Vincent could get increasing time if Lowry is unable to go. Need Butler to show up like he did in Game 2 and Duncan to show up like he did in Game 1. And if Herro turns up his game, I think he will, Heat should deliver today. Hawks just 5-15 ATS off a SU win and just 2-5 ATS in this series. Spoelstra does a nice job with adjustments, and we'll look for him to make the right moves with his more talented lineup. We'll grab the Heat on the money line. |
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04-24-22 | Warriors -4 v. Nuggets | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
Warriors/Nuggets 3:30: Nuggets struggling to find support for Jokic. Without Murray and Porter Jr., Denver's supporting cast limited. On the other hand, with the emergence of Poole, and the recovery of Thompson, and now Curry back in the fold, Denver's severely stressed as Jokic is run ragged and then has to bang with solid post defender Green. Denver struggling at home at 6-18 ATS and 0-5 ATS as home dog. Warriors should close it out. |
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04-23-22 | Grizzlies -2.5 v. Wolves | 118-119 | Loss | -111 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
Grizzlies/Wolves 10:00: Grizzlies have taken control of this series after deflating the Wolves in Game 3. Grizzlies asserted themselves defensively in their 21-0 run in second half. There was no answer by Minnesota. Grizzlies have been tough defensively virtually all season while the Wolves were in the bottom tier defensively. KAT has been a non-factor in the two losses, and we'll look for his struggles to continue. Morant and company now have the confidence to keep the winning momentum. Grizzlies 8-1 ATS on Saturdays and 21-6 ATS on 1 day of rest. They're 13-6 ATS as road chalk and 6-2 ATS at Minnesota. Young Wolves drop off again tonight. |
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04-23-22 | Mavs +6 v. Jazz | 99-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Jazz 4:30: Jazz haven't found an answer to stop Brunson and today, Mavericks should have Doncic get some floor work. Of course, Utah's Donovan Mitchell always a bet to go off. And Jazz operating best when Gobert is on the bench. Dallas has the #1 defense in the NBA and it's giving Utah trouble. Mavericks now 7-1 ATS in this series. We'll stay on them here. |
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04-23-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +3.5 | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
76ers/Raptors 2:00: Raptors on the brink of elimination but still got fight in them. Scottie Barnes (ankle) should be back today to lend the needed hand. On the other hand, Embiid bothered by possible ligament damage in right thumb; consequently, should be problematic enough to alter shots and allow Toronto to stay in this one. Raptors 4-1 ATS as a home dog and 5-0 ATS on 2 days of rest. Toronto the call. |
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04-22-22 | Suns -1 v. Pelicans | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show | |
Suns/Pelicans 9:30: Suns got a bad break with Booker (hamstring) going down. Monty Williams not the greatest strategist to fill his void schematically; fortunately, Chris Paul is ready and able. He had a monster game in Game 1 and should be back up to speed when Phoenix needs him most. He does have a solid supporting cast which is more than able to step up. Ayton, Bridges, Crowder will be banging, and we'll look for journeyman -Shamet to help fill some of the void for Booker. Suns are 8-6 SU without Booker. Phoenix 5-1 ATS at New Orleans. Suns the call. |
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04-22-22 | Bucks v. Bulls +3 | 111-81 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
Bucks/Bulls 8:30: Bucks have had tremendous success in Chicago at 11-1 ATS; however, without Middleton (knee), still value exists with the Bulls considering the line shift. Middleton is a huge part of taking pressure off Giannis; after all, Middleton averaged 20 PPG during the regular season and surely proved his worth in the playoffs over the last two seasons. Holiday, Portis Jr. and Lopez will have to step up but it's still a tall task. Milwaukee was just 7-9 SU without Middleton during regular season. Chicago is trouble. Donovan has Chicago well prepared and playing confident. DeRozan is picking up where he left off during the regular season; Vucevic and Lavine are offering good support. And like the energy Caruso and Thompson bring to the floor. Chicago the call. |
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04-22-22 | Heat -1 v. Hawks | 110-111 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
Heat/Hawks 7:00: Going to stay on the Heat here. Capela's knee injury really hurt the interior presence of Atlanta. Miami is finding ease in driving to the basket because of his absence. And Atlanta's bench doesn't provide the physical presence to battle down low. Someone on Miami has been stepping up repeatedly. If not Lowry, Herro, Robinson, there was Butler dropping 45 on Tuesday. Atlanta having difficultly navigating late vs the reenergized defense of Miami. Heat 4-0 ATS on the road vs teams with teams with home records greater than .600. Hawks 1-5 ATS as a playoff dog. Heat the call. |
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04-21-22 | Mavs +7 v. Jazz | 126-118 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Jazz 9:00: Mavericks' Brunson stepped up his game Monday dropping 41 on the Jazz. Will need him and Dinwiddie to play great tonight too. Most likely, Doncic will sit out this one to not aggravate his calf. Surely an added bonus if he goes but I doubt it. Nevertheless, we'll stay on the Mavericks. Jazz have been horrible favorites recently at 3-7-1 ATS for their last 11 in that role. And 23-47-4 ATS off a SU loss. Dallas the call. |
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04-21-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +2 | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
Grizzlies/Wolves 7:30: Wolves got down in Game 2 and relented. Tonight, they should be able to redeem themselves on their strong home floor. KAT, Russell and Edwards should step up their game here; after all, Wolves are 14-6-1 ATS off a SU loss, and 9-3 ATS off a SU loss of 12+. T-Wolves deliver. |
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04-20-22 | Bulls v. Bucks -9.5 | 114-110 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
Bulls/Bucks 9:30: In Game 1, Bucks jumped all over the Bulls early to a double-digit lead but took their foot off the gas pedal; consequently, the well-disciplined Bulls extended their defense and got in rhythm offensively as Vucevic, DeRozan and Lavine played well up until late. Tonight, the more talented Bucks should shift it into overdrive and shake loose with the right adjustments. Bucks the call. |
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04-20-22 | Nets +4 v. Celtics | 107-114 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
Nets/Celtics 7:00: In Game 1, Nets' Durant had a poor game by his standard - going 9 of 24 from the field and just 1 of 5 from 3-point range; fortunately, Irving kept them in the game dropping 39. Great players rarely have back-to-back poor performances in the playoffs; consequently, we'll look for Durant to heat up the net tonight. Dragic should see more action tonight; after all, he came off the bench and heated up with 14. Him or Seth Curry need to lend more help. Nets do good work as a road dog at 6-2-1 ATS. Celtics a shaky 2-5 ATS as a playoff favorite. Nets the call. |
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04-19-22 | Pelicans +10 v. Suns | 125-114 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
Pelicans/Phoenix 10:00: Pelicans have a solid young team that competes. They rallied back in Game 1 before Chris Paul went off. Pelicans' McCollum is a big time player who is capable of keeping them in games. He does have a pretty good supporting cast including Ingram and Jonas. And Nance Jr. has been a big energy guy off the bench. Pelicans 13-6 ATS in last 19 road games and 5-1 ATS off a loss. Suns could be a bit sluggish here as they're 1-5 ATS on 1 day rest. |
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04-19-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | 96-124 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
Wolves/Grizzlies 8:30: In Game 1, Grizzlies got nothing out of Adams as he was abused by Towns on both ends of the floor. I would assume Jaren Jackson would step into the 5 spot to give more resistance defensively and add some points on the other end of the floor. Morant and company should step up here; after all, they're 10-3 ATS off a SU loss and control a 24-9 ATS mark in this series at home. T-Wolves, 3-8 ATS as a road dog, should struggle in this spot. |
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04-19-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
Atlanta/Miami 7:30: Miami shooting near 50% from 3-point range in this series this season including playoffs. Sunday, Duncan Robinson lit it up from trey-land as the Heat shot 47% from the perimeter. Defensively, the Heat took Young out of his game (1 of 12). Atlanta can hang on the road with sub-par to good teams but struggle vs the elite. Hawks now 6-20 ATS as a road dog. Hawks now 1-6 ATS in Miami. And Atlanta doesn't have the interior depth to go the duration without Capela (knee). Heat again. |
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04-18-22 | Nuggets +7 v. Warriors | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
Nuggets/Warriors 10:00: I had Golden State in Game 1, mentioning the formidable lineup of Curry, Thompson, Green, Poole and Wiggins all on the floor together. Poole went off in Game 1 and that doesn't bode well in this series for the Nuggets which don't have the supporting cast set yet for Jokic. Nevertheless, Denver's been tough off double-digit losses this season at 5-1 ATS. And they even went into Golden State on February 16th against the very lineup they faced Saturday and won outright as a 6-point dog. Of course, the Warriors are still working Curry back from injury and he'll eventually heat up. But Denver is a resilient team and will go down swinging. We'll grab the points. |
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04-18-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5.5 | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
Utah/Dallas 8:30: In Game 1, Dallas, without Doncic, got out-boarded, shot a measly 38% from the floor, just 9 of 32 from 3-point range, and a poor 26 of 34 from the foul line and was a point away from a cover. Tonight, again Doncic will not play. We have good value with the Mavericks. They're 35-16 ATS off a SU loss and covered 4 of last 5 as a home dog. Utah, on the other hand, has trouble closing on the road and they're just 3-9 ATS as road chalk. We'll grab the points. |
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04-18-22 | Raptors +7.5 v. 76ers | 97-112 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
Raptors/76ers 7:30: 76ers' Maxey went off for a season high and sank Toronto. Embiid and Harden are clearly more dangerous and held in check. Toronto won't panic and Nurse will make the right adjustments. Toronto sports a 4-1 ATS mark in this series over its last 5. They're 5-2 ATS off a loss of 10+ and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 dog roles. Toronto the call. |
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04-17-22 | Bulls v. Bucks -10 | 86-93 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
Bulls/Bucks 6:30: Bulls struggling to get healthy and limited in weaponry to handle the star power Milwaukee brings to the floor. LaVine still nursing knee injuries and DeRozan has limited support. On the other hand, Milwaukee's Lopez is now healthy and George Hill should be a go off the bench to lend hand to a potent lineup of Giannis, Middleton, Holiday and Portis. Chicago hasn't played the dog role well at 7-21 ATS. We'll roll with Milwaukee in Game 1. |
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04-17-22 | Nets +4.5 v. Celtics | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Nets/Celtics 3:30: Boston got the best of this series this season including at Brooklyn where Irving was unable to play due to not being vaccinated. Today, he's back in the fray. He and Durant should utilize their playoff experience and keep this competitive. Nets are 5-2 ATS as a road dog and 5-2 ATS on 3 days rest. Celtics just 1-5 ATS in Conference Quarterfinal action. Take the points. |
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04-17-22 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | 91-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
Hawks/Heat 1:00: Hawks on a nice run and I had them in their last 2 games; however, have to fade them here. Hawks are playing 3rd game in last 5 days and Young only has so much juice in them. Spoelstra has options with his fresh legged lineup. He'll probably shadow young with Lowry to start while shuttling fresh bodies in throughout. Hawks won't have Capela (knee) who's been outstanding on the boards and a solid inside presence on both sides of the floor. Hawks, will however, probably have John Collins (finger) back to help fill void. But Heat resemble the playoff team of 2020 than last year's that was eliminated in first round. The additions of Lowry and Martin have given a solid boost to the team to aid Butler. And the resurgence of Herro makes a big difference. Miami shot 51% from 3 point range against Atlanta in 4 games this season as they got the best of Atlanta in the season series. We'll give Game 1 to the Heat here. |
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04-16-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -6 | 107-123 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
Nuggets/Warriors 8:30: Warriors should have their Big 3 on the floor together tonight. Curry is due back to add to an already dangerous roster. Denver, with Jokic as the leader of virtually every statistical category on the team, should be overwhelmed without his teammate - Murray (ACL) still in recovery. And now that Klay Thompson has gotten back in rhythm, he alongside Poole, Wiggins and Green are just too many weapons for Denver to contain for the duration. Nuggets just 3-9 ATS in this series and 1-4 ATS as a playoff dog. We'll look for the Warriors to deliver tonight. |
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04-16-22 | Raptors +4.5 v. 76ers | 111-131 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
Raptors/76ers 6:00: Clearly the 76ers are the more talented team but Toronto HC Nurse does a great job in adjustments to stay in games. Raptors covered all 4 of the games in this season series and we'll look for them to stay in this one. Nurse limited and rested players against New York in their final game. Siakam is well rested and should get good support from Achiuwa and Trent Jr, while Van Fleet (knee) is set to go off. Raptors 16-5 ATS off a SU loss including 5-1 ATS off SU loss of 10+. Nurse a sweet 5-1 ATS in Conference Quarterfinals, and he's 7-2-1 ATS as a playoff dog. Grab the points. |
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04-16-22 | Wolves +6.5 v. Grizzlies | 130-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
Wolves/Grizzlies 3:30: Wolves turned in a strong performance vs the Clippers to get here. While Memphis is the better team, Wolves pose matchup problems for Memphis. In four games this season, Minnesota played them tough. Even though the series was split, the Wolves outscored Memphis 483-450 and took Memphis to OT in Memphis before the Grizzlies dispatched them. Top Grizzlies' gun - Morant did average 20 PPG in series but his just 3 of 20 from downtown. Wolves Russell was consistently strong in this series, Him and Edwards and teammates lit up the net from trey-land. Wolves sport a 4-0 ATS mark on 3+ days rest and 5-0 ATS on Saturdays. We'll look for them to stick around here. |
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04-16-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5 | 99-93 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
Jazz/Mavericks 1:00: Doncic (calf) is the big question mark at this time. He's most likely out. Nevertheless, we'll stay on the home team. Dallas has won 5 of their last 6 without Doncic. The Mavericks boast a top tier defense and the late season pick up of Dinwiddie added additional offense to compliment Doncic and Brunson. Utah has had their share of post-season flops and sport a money burning 9-26 ATS mark on the road vs teams above .500. Dallas has covered 4 straight in this series. We'll take the points. |
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04-15-22 | Pelicans v. Clippers -3.5 | 105-101 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
Pelicans/Clippers 10:05: Clippers had the T-Wolves by gonads - up 10 with 8:54 remaining and failed to close. Anthony-Towns went out and the Clippers failed to adjust as Wolves went on a major run to close it out. With a few days rest, look for playoff savvy Clippers' HC Lue to make the right calls tonight. Pelicans have some great young talent and that bodes well for the near future, but not ready to close tonight. Pelicans have their flaws - lower tier defending the 3 pointer and lower tier shooting the 3. Clippers, however, are a top tier 3 point shooting team and can lock down on the defensive end. Need Reggie Jackson, who is usually strong in post-season, to match Paul George's big time game. I think he will. Clippers the call. |
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04-15-22 | Hawks -2 v. Cavs | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 42 h 13 m | Show | |
Hawks/Cavaliers 7:35: Cleveland is not an easy out, especially at home where they're 4-1 ATS against Atlanta; moreover, All-Star Jarrett Allen (finger) is likely to play. However, Hawks' HC McMillan a solid playoff coach and will tighten the bolts on the Cavaliers' offense here. Young has had some big games vs Cleveland this season at 32.5 PPG/9 APG. Hawks playing unselfish ball offensively, on a good run and can cover as a favorite (6-0 ATS) and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road favorite roles. |
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04-13-22 | Spurs +5.5 v. Pelicans | 103-113 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
Spurs/Pelicans 9:30: Pelicans adjusted well without Zion Williamson (leading scorer last season). After losing 12 of their first 13 games, they produced a winning record to get here. Surely CJ McCollum pick up from Portland in February helped tremendously. McCollum, Jonas and Ingram present a solid core to reckon with; however, like the Spurs strong finish (7-0 ATS) down the stretch. Popovich, the winningest NBA coach, is well versed in the playoffs and we'll give the Spurs the edge. Now that Dejounte Murray is back in the fray, Spurs should be able to deliver here. |
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04-13-22 | Hornets v. Hawks -5 | 103-132 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
Hornets/Hawks 7:00: Hawks had a nice run in the playoffs behind McMillan last year and I'm sitting on the Hawks tonight. Charlotte can match points but come crunch time, they're soft defensively. McMillan's Hawks are more prepared for these clutch moments and more disciplined defensively. Hawks 6-0 ATS as a favorite and 12-5 ATS as home chalk. Atlanta the call. |
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04-12-22 | Clippers +3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
Clippers/T-Wolves 9:30: Clippers finished strong down the stretch on a 5-0 / 4-1 ATS run. Clippers have solid team chemistry and a stable bench under playoff strong HC Lue. And now that Paul George and Norman Powell (foot) are healthy, they're dangerous. And they're equipped with a better defense than their counterpart. Sure, T-Wolves can light up the net at home (#1 offense in NBA), but question big game ability. Clippers equipped with big-game players including Reggie Jackson, George. And Zubac usually steps up his game in post-season. We'll grab the Clippers to deliver in this play-in. |
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04-12-22 | Cavs +8.5 v. Nets | 108-115 | Win | 105 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
Cavs/Nets 7:00: We'll look for Cleveland to avenge Friday's 118-107 loss in Brooklyn. As of now, Jarrett Allen (finger) a no go. He did practice at full throttle with team Monday, however. The good news for the Cavaliers is that their backcourt is healthy and deep. Garland and LeVert can fire up the net and experienced post-season PG Rondo is available if needed. Also Mobley is a force down low. Nets are also healthy. They've been a horrible home favorite at 3-23 ATS but with Irving now available for home games, that could change. However, 8' points is a bit over adjusted to a scrappy Cleveland team. Winner advance to the first round vs #2 seed Boston next week while the loser plays Friday vs the winner of 9-10 game between Atlanta/Charlotte. Take Cleveland to cover. |
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04-09-22 | Kings +11.5 v. Clippers | 98-117 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
Kings/Clippers 9:40: Kings got slaughtered in their last two games but have a solid chance to cover here. They've won 4 of their last 5 in Los Angeles and are 7-0 ATS on Saturday; moreover, 6-1 ATS off a double-digit loss at home, and 23-7 ATS on 3 or more days rest. Clippers, 3-7 ATS slide, 2-5 ATS on Saturday, and 7-20 ATS on 2 days rest, have locked in the #8 seed and are looking at Tuesday's matchup vs Minnesota to secure the 7 seed to take on Memphis in opening round. Should they lose that, they'll have another chance by taking on either San Antonio or New Orleans on Friday with winner taking on the Suns in the opening round. Good chance, limited playing time for Paul George and key starters. As for Sacramento, young guns playing for jobs next season and most likely will bring their "A" game. Kings the call. |
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04-07-22 | Spurs +9 v. Wolves | 121-127 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
Spurs/Wolves 8:10: These teams are going in the opposite direction down the stretch. T-Wolves have lost 5 of their last 8 while the Spurs are on a 7-1 SU/ATS run. T-Wolves really struggling defensively - giving up 131 PPG over their last 5 games. Spurs running smooth offense despite Murray's absence. And they could get him back tonight. Spurs won the play-in-game spot on Tuesday and can still beat out New Orleans for a play-in home game, so incentive is there. As for Minnesota, they're guaranteed no worse than 7th place. They'll need to win out and get help with Denver dropping their last 2 to attain 6th. Wolves have controlled this series and sport a 7-0 ATS run vs Spurs. Spurs are playing their best ball, however, and overdue to grab the money here. Take the points. |
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04-06-22 | Nets v. Knicks +5 | 110-98 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
analysis to follow... |
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04-05-22 | Spurs +7.5 v. Nuggets | 116-97 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
Spurs/Nuggets 9:00: Spurs in the driver seat in quest to make the play-in game. They're controlling the #10 seed and two games ahead of the Lakers. They're on a 6-1 SU/ATS run and won 4 straight on the road. They've historically done well in Denver at 19-9 ATS including 2-0 ATS in their last 2 visits. Meanwhile, Denver in a good position in the playoff standings with some wiggle room. Jokic is clearly carrying the team on his back while Murray (knee) and Porter Jr. (back) are near ready to compete again in time for playoffs. Nuggets have recently been a poor favorite (4-9 ATS) and just 1-7 ATS at home in their last 8 in Denver. We'll look for the hungry Spurs to stay competitive here. |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina +4.5 v. Kansas | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
North Carolina/Kansas 9:20: NC has been ridiculously great offensively throughout the tournament. Manek, Love, Davis and Bacot are running the offense as smooth as silk. The problem lies in Bacot's health. He sprained his ankle in the final minute against Duke on Saturday. He has been an absolute beast down low as a top rebounder and scorer. He is the only big man capable of countering Kansas McCormack - who went off against Villanova. Bacot has been getting constant treatment and he's gotten the green light to go. We'll look for him to be on his game and continue to be a key contributor. NC the call. |
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04-03-22 | Wolves -12 v. Rockets | 139-132 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
Wolves/Rockets 7:10: T-Wolves have recently been a good road favorite (4-1 ATS); moreover, they usually dispatch the low-level teams on the road as exhibited by their 8-1 ATS mark as a traveler vs home teams with a win % less than .400. Wolves also play well on Sunday at 16-5 ATS. Rockets, on the other hand, playing out the season and not responding favorably off SU losses (12-25 ATS). They're also a loser on Sundays at 6-14 ATS. Rockets have some shooters in Green and Porter Jr., but defensively at the bottom tier of NBA allowing 117.8 PPG. Wolves have won 5 of the last 6 in this series ATS. We'll lay the wood. |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke -4 | 81-77 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
North Carolina/Duke 8:49: Coach K won't acknowledge it, but he didn't appreciate North Carolina ruining his homecourt goodbye game. Coach K has been an outstanding revenge game coach delivering at a 69% clip since 2000. If we go back further, his most infamous revenge game was against UNLV's Tark the Shark in 1991 Final Four. The previous year, the Running Rebels blasted K's Blue Devils 100-73 in one of the most lopsided wins in NCAA National Championship game history. Coach K got his revenge in that '91 Final Four 79-77 to end UNLV's ridiculous 45 game winning streak. We fast forward to the present and Coach K and his boys in a good situation: Plenty of time to prepare and make adjustments; this time, against blistering hot shooters Manek, Love, capable heating up G Davis, and rebounding beast Bacot. K has the bodies to counter with Banchero, Moore, Griffin and big man Williams. Herbert Davis doing a great job keeping the Tar Heels a national power, but not going to outwit the Blue Devils legend in his final year. Duke the call. |
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04-02-22 | Villanova +4.5 v. Kansas | 65-81 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
Villanova/Kansas 6:09: Wildcats have been money in the NCAA Tournament at 21-6 ATS. Sure, they'll be missing Justin Moore who tore his Achillies in the final minute of Villanova's Elite Eight win over Houston. Moore will be missed; after all, he contributes 14.8 PPG, 5 RPG and adds a good defensive presence. However, Jay Wright does have Caleb Daniels who has shined as a super sub before. He stepped up big against Providence and St. John's with big games. And Gillespie has been a big-time player in big games. On the other hand, jury still out on Kansas' Big 12 P.O.Y. Agbaji. Remy Martin is now the go-to guy and Wright will surely have a contain plan. Jayhawks a money burning 7-20 ATS off a SU win of over 20+. We'll take the points here. |
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04-01-22 | Mavs -8.5 v. Wizards | 103-135 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Wizards 7:10: We'll lay the wood with a Dallas team fighting for home court advantage in the playoffs; meanwhile, the Wizards have nothing to play for by virtue of Atlanta beating Cleveland last night - thus eliminating them from playoffs. Wizards not a good Friday team at 1-6 ATS. And Dallas, which lost to Washington in its only meeting back on November 27th, playing very well now. The defensively strong Mavericks have recently stepped up their game offensively. Doncic getting good offensive support from Brunson and Finney-Smith. Take Dallas. |
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03-29-22 | St Bonaventure -1.5 v. Xavier | 77-84 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
St. Bonaventure/Xavier 7:00: Bonnies playing very well and managed to grind out a win over defensively stifling Virginia. They showed a lot of grit in that game. They're selfless, energetic team. Xavier, on the other hand, on paper has more talent but doesn't have the direction. Kevin Steele is out and as they await Sean Miller to come back. Meanwhile, Jonas Hayes is holding the program together and doing a pretty good job; however, should end here to the more disciplined Bonnies; moreover, Xavier misses G Scruggs (knee) who is their facilitator. He contributed nearly 12 PPG and 4 APG along with solid defensive prowess. Bonnies 20-8 ATS as a small neutral site favorite. We'll roll with them. |
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03-28-22 | Bulls v. Knicks +5 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
Bulls/Knicks 7:40: Knicks in dire need of wins just to make a play-in-game. As of now, they're 4.5 games behind 10th place Atlanta. They did win three straight and actually play well unrested (5-2 ATS). They're catching Chicago in a bad stretch (2-5 SU/ATS). They did win 2 of 3 in this series this season; however, NY controls a 4-1 ATS mark at MSG vs Chicago. Knicks have covered 8 of their last 10 as a dog and play well on Mondays (17-5 ATS). We'll roll with NY. |
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03-27-22 | St. Peter's +8.5 v. North Carolina | 49-69 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
St. Peter's/North Carolina 5:05: Peacocks are the first #15 seed to ever go to the Elite Eight. They're peaking at the right time, they're tremendous on their defensive principles and selfless offensively. They already took out two Goliaths in Kentucky and Purdue and it wasn't a fluke. They're quickness, tenacity and well-organized defense which transitioned amazingly well offensively with someone stepping up. Now 8-0 ATS as a dog. They have their hands full today with Manek, Bacot and red hot Love; however, we'll look for the magic to continue. Take the points. |
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03-27-22 | Miami-FL +6 v. Kansas | 50-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
Miami-Fla/Kansas 2:20: Two heavyweight giants go toe to toe with Self vs Larranaga. Love what Larranaga has done with the Hurricanes. I've been riding them most of the year and they've been money, especially as a dog (19-6-1 ATS last 26 dog roles); moreover, they're 7-1 ATS as a neutral floor dog and 5-1 ATS as an NCAA Tournament dog. Their guard play has been outstanding, and someone always steps up if someone is lacking offensively. McGusty has been sensational. On the other hand, not a fan of KU's Ogbaji. Not a big game player. And I'll stand by that here. KU 2-5 ATS as NCAA Tournament favorite. We'll take the points. |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
Arkansas//Duke 8:49: No dominant teams in this tournament this year. Most underdogs are covering and I'm not going to fade that trend here. Arkansas has felt disrespected throughout this tournament and playing out of their mind. They're defensively strong, athletic and feisty. Hogs are 5-0 ATS when a dog. On the other hand, Duke is a money-burner as a favorite. We'll take the points. |
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03-26-22 | Houston -2.5 v. Villanova | 44-50 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
Houston/Villanova 6:09: Cougars looking for the second straight year to reach the Final Four and we'll roll with them. Amazing coaches go head-to-head but we'll grab Sampson's bunch. They exhibit the toughness that's not equaled in this tournament. And with top gun Gillespie (knee) not at his healthiest, we'll grab the Cougars. Cougars 6-2-1 ATS as an NCAA Tournament favorite. Villanova 1-4-1 ATS as a dog. Houston the call. |
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03-26-22 | Houston v. Villanova UNDER 128.5 | 44-50 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
Houston/Villanova 6:09: Cougars showed why they're the #1 FG% defense in the nation vs Arizona. And Villanova is not as good of a shooting team as Arizona. Cougars now 1-4 O/U in their last 5 as an NCAA Tournament favorite. And they're 2-7 O/U overall. 'Cats 1-5 O/U in their last 6 and 1-7 O/U on a neutral floor. Both teams well-orchestrated defensively and we'll stay "under". |
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03-25-22 | Iowa State v. Miami-FL -2.5 | 56-70 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
Iowa State/Miami-Fla 9:59: Iowa State has been thriving on defensive pressure, creating turnovers to fuel their offense. But Miami Fla has great backcourt play and a 1.4 Asst/TO ratio (22nd nationally) with solid ball control and able to be efficient with shots. Hurricanes move the ball well and create good looks at the basket with great guard play from double digit scorers: McGusty, Wong, Moore and Miller. Iowa state has a tendency to go into shooting droughts. We'll look for seasoned coach Larranga (with a Final Four on his resume - George Mason) to guide his men to the Elite Eight. |
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03-25-22 | North Carolina v. UCLA -2 | 73-66 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
North Carolina/UCLA 9:39: Carolina shooting lights out and confident coming off knocking off #1 seed Baylor in OT. They did, however, give up a double-digit lead after Brady Manek was ejected. NC did exhibit toughness to close it out. UCLA isn't your typical West Coast team. They play a physical brand of basketball under HC Cronin - who brought that brand of basketball from Cincinnati over a 13-year successful stint there. NC has the ballers including 6'10" rebounding machine Bacot and Caleb Love - firing up the net; however, defensively, they're not at the level of UCLA. And offensively, Tyger Campbell creating big plays down the stretch to secure wins. The Bruins need Juzang to step up his game and I think it comes here. UCLA the call. |
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03-25-22 | St. Peter's v. Purdue -12.5 | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
St. Peter's/Purdue 7:09: Nice run for St. Peter's but they're not going to sneak up on Purdue. The Boilermakers, remember, were a #1 team back in mid-November knocking off North Carolina and Villanova on consecutive nights on a neutral floor. They're getting back to establishing that elite tournament game. St. Peter's, whose tallest baller is 6'8", doesn't have the length to stop 7'4" Eday or 6'10" Trevion Williams. And big time Boilermaker's G Jaden Ivey (17.2 PPG) has elevated his game on the biggest stage. Purdue is 4-1 ATS as an NCAA Tournament favorite. We'll lay the wood. |
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03-24-22 | Houston +1.5 v. Arizona | Top | 72-60 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
Houston/Arizona 9:59: Houston was expected to collapse after losing Mark and Sasser; however, HC Sampson had his guys believe and execute his system; as a result, the Cougars did not miss a beat arriving once again in the NCAAs. And the Cougars deserved more. They're playing with a chip on their shoulders after given a 5 seed. They only had one double-digit loss all season and that was to Memphis to whom they later avenged in the AAC Championship. Arizona continues as a #1 seed survivor after barely beating TCU in OT in the 2nd Round. And TCU sports a good defense but offensively challenged. Houston, the #1 FG% defense in the nation, can also shoot. They have a solid offensive chemistry behind Moore, Shead and Edwards. Cats 0-4 ATS as an NCAA Tournament favorite and we're fading them here. Houston the call. |
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03-24-22 | Texas Tech v. Duke +1.5 | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 21 h 11 m | Show | |
Texas Tech/Duke 9:39: Two well coached teams battling it out. Tech is dangerously adept at locking down an offense. Red Raiders' HC Adams does an amazing job having his men prepared to take away strength of an offense. On the other hand, Coach K has his guys playing well and at the highest intensity with everyone knowing their assignment. He has a bit more offensive prowess with Banchero and Williams. And Duke has been a favorite most of the season and was not a moneymaker; however, now they're a dog and Coach K is a dangerous 6-0 ATS as a neutral dog. We'll look for the legendary coach to advance another round. |
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03-24-22 | Michigan v. Villanova -5 | 55-63 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
Michigan/Villanova 7:29: Good run by Michigan but it should end here for the Wolverines. Jay Wright has Villanova humming and the defensive shutdowns down the stretch of games are what makes championship tournament teams. Gillespie and Sanders should be too much for Michigan. Cats are a sweet 17-4 ATS as an NCAA Tournament favorite. Villanova the call. |
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03-23-22 | Suns v. Wolves +1.5 | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
Suns/Wolves 8:10: T-Wolves in good position to seek double same-season revenge tonight. They're coming off a controversial two-point loss to Dallas on Monday night; considering that, they've been playing lights out on a 10-2 run. And they're 20-8-1 ATS at home. The #1 offense in the NBA led by Russell, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards should be able to outscore the Suns on this floor. Suns' Chris Paul, who is out with a broken thumb, came up big with 21 points in both wins against Minnesota this season. His backup - Shamet, who is the best PG to hold the fort down until Paul returns, is still not the facilitator Paul is. Wolves are 12-3 ATS off a SU loss and we'll look for them to deliver here. |
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03-22-22 | Vanderbilt +4 v. Xavier | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt/Xavier 9:00: Value with a Commodores team that's 6-0 ATS on the road vs a team with a home winning % above .600. They're coming off OT win against a very good top seeded Dayton team. They're 7-1 ATS off a SU win. Pippen Jr. does it all and he dropped 32 on Dayton. he'll need his backcourt mate - Jordan Wright - to step up tonight. Wright, who had an off shooting day vs Dayton was scorching down the stretch of the regular season. Xavier, dealing with the departure of their HC Steele - did well under interim HC Hayes, who is keeping bench warm until the return of former Xavier head coach Sean Miller. Xavier just 1-9 ATS off a SU win, 2-12 ATS on Tuesdays and just 1-6 ATS vs teams with winning records. We'll take the points with Vandy. |
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03-21-22 | Heat v. 76ers | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
Miami/76ers 7:10: At first glance, Miami the call; after all, Miami 7-0-1 ATS on the road run and coming off 2 straight wins. A closer look, however, reveals a host of wins as a favorite over subpar teams. March 5th, the Heat on their home floor blew out the 76ers 99-82. Harden was a scratch for that game. 76ers coming off a loss to Toronto yesterday and, although playing unrested, are at full throttle. For Miami, Butler dealing with an ankle, Martin, Vincent and Oladipo out. We'll look for the 76ers to respond off their loss yesterday with sweet revenge tonight. |
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03-20-22 | Texas v. Purdue -3 | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
Texas/Purdue 8:40: Purdue getting back to their early season dominance when they beat up Villanova and UNC on Nov 20th and 21st. Boilermakers are deep and have size with 7'4" Edey and a playmaking G in Ivey. They have a great supporting cast. Longhorns are light years away from going deep in the tournament under HC Chris Beard. We'll grab the Boilermakers here. |
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03-20-22 | Notre Dame v. Texas Tech -7.5 | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
Notre Dame/Texas Tech 7:10: Red Raiders' HC Mark Adams took over for Chris Beard and has not missed a beat. Adams, the defensive guru of the team, has every player knowing his assignment defensively as exhibited by their Top 20 defense. And now, the offense is starting to cook - dropping 97 on Montana State Friday. ND has been cooking too but playing in 3rd game in 5 days should take its toll here. Irish just 1-5 ATS as a neutral dog while TT sports a 5-1 ATS NCAA Tournament favorite record. Red Raiders the call. |
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03-20-22 | Iowa State v. Wisconsin -4.5 | 54-49 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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03-19-22 | VCU +5.5 v. Wake Forest | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
VCU/WF 4:00: VCU can flat out ball. They came close to being an NCAA Tournament team with strong outings in November tournament play with covers against Syracuse, U Conn and Baylor. Finishing in second place in the Atlantic 10, they swept Richmond in the regular season only to lose to them in the conference tournament thus dropping them into this tourney. Sure, WF is an offensive machine, but they have their flaws defensively (206th nationally in points allowed). VCU is defense first in their frenetic pace but did drop 90 on Princeton. VCU a dangerous dog at 11-3 as a traveler. We'll grab the points. |
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03-19-22 | Creighton v. Kansas -11.5 | 72-79 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
Creighton/Kansas 2:40: Kansas has been turning it up since Remy Martin given more playing time coupled with Harris in the backcourt. Additional depth to add like that creates a deep and dangerous Kansas team with Agbaji struggling a bit. Meanwhile, Creighton overcame a double-digit deficit to knock off SDS Thursday in OT. Unfortunately, it cost the Blue Jays their significant inside presence with Kalkbrenner (knee). The Blue Jays are already without key facilitator Nembhard (Feb 23rd). Lack of depth should hurt in this matchup with deep Kansas. McDermott did a great job coaching but in over his head here. Creighton just 1-7 ATS as an NCAA Tournament dog and we'll roll with Kansas. |
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03-19-22 | North Carolina v. Baylor -5 | 93-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
North Carolina/Baylor 12:10: Baylor continues to be a great tournament team despite the absence of Cryer (foot) and Tchalchoua. They simply reload and someone usually steps up. Thursday, Mayer was the latest Bear to bust out with a breakout performance. The Bears are well rounded and disciplined on both ends of the floor. North Carolina looked like a world beater Thursday in their blowout vs Marquette. Manek was unstoppable (28 points / 5 of 10 from 3-point land). Baylor's HC Drew usually takes away the strength of an offense and Manek and Bascot will be a challenge. However, NC defense still a question mark despite strong performance vs Marquette. We'll look for the rhythmic Bear offense to deliver. Tar Heels do not play the tournament dog role well (0-6 ATS). For what it's worth, they were blown out on a neutral floor in late November by NCAA Tournament teams Purdue and Tennessee. Then thrashed by Kentucky Dec 18th. We'll look for Baylor to deliver here. |
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03-18-22 | TCU +1 v. Seton Hall | 69-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
TCU/Seton Hall 9:57: Both teams bring stellar defenses to the floor; however, Seton Hall lost Aiken (14.5 PPG) and offense should continue to suffer. Rhoden has to carry the offense and the supporting cast not there. TCU, however, has offensive go-to-guy Miles who has a pretty good supporting cast in Baugh, Miller and O'Bannon Jr. Coaching edge with Jamie Dixon who is gradually molding TCU into those strong Pittsburgh teams of the 90s he took to the NCAAs. TCU the call. |
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03-18-22 | TCU v. Seton Hall UNDER 129 | 69-42 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show | |
TCU/Seton Hall 9:57: Both teams are defensively stout but offensively challenged. TCU 4-10 O/U on a neutral floor while Pirates 1-5 O/U neutral. Value with the "under" here. |
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03-18-22 | UAB v. Houston -8 | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
UAB/Houston 9:20: Houston was a Final Four team last year and Sampson did a terrific job leading the Cougars to the American Conference Championship. And that was without his top 2 players Mark and Sasser! Houston was efficient on both sides of the court. On the other hand, UAB became the surprising C-USA Champ and have some dangerous shooters including Walker. But Sampson has a way of taking the go-to-guy out of the offense and making a team play ugly. UAB is not stout defensively and that ultimately will be their downfall. Houston the call. |
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03-18-22 | Davidson +1.5 v. Michigan State | 73-74 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show | |
Davidson/Michigan State 9:40: For Davidson, no shame losing to Richmond in Atlantic 10 Championship Game, we saw what Richmond can do in tournament action last night. Davidson is well coached under McKillop and has a solid group of scorers including former Spartan Foster Loyer (16.3 PPG). For Michigan State, the closest they have to a big-time tournament star is Gabe Brown. Spartans finished on a 3-7 SU slide down stretch and we're fading them here. |
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03-17-22 | San Francisco +2.5 v. Murray State | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 2 m | Show | |
San Francisco/Murray State 9:40: Not entirely sold on Murray State. Battling in the inferior OVC, haven't been tested all season. On the other hand, the Dons banged it out with Gonzaga, St. Mary's and posted a few quality wins outside their conference. They have a dangerous backcourt in Bouyea and Shabazz. And now that their big man - Massalski (knee) appears healthy, the Dons should give the Racers a run for the money here. Racers just 3-7 ATS as chalk. San Francisco the call. |
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03-17-22 | Indiana +2.5 v. St. Mary's | 53-82 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 20 m | Show | |
Indiana/St. Mary's 7:20: Hoosiers coming off solid win in First Four-In. These First Four In teams can be dangerous. Look what UCLA did last year! Indiana has the confidence and held more than their own in the Big 10 - what is billed as the strongest conference in NCAA Tournament. Other than a rough patch in February, Indiana has been in virtually every game this season. They're a dangerous dog at 4-0 ATS. St. Mary's is a formidable foe, but Indiana has the playmaker in Trayce Jackson-Davis who should find a way to win here. |
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03-17-22 | Memphis v. Boise State +3 | Top | 64-53 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Memphis/Boise State 1:45: Boise State enters game not only winning MWC Regular Season Championship but delivering the MWC Tournament Championship. They're awarded the #8 seed while Memphis comes in off blowout loss to Houston in American Athletic Conference Championship. Sure, Memphis Duren is a future NBA baller but Boise State is great defensively (15th defense nationally) and has the long athletic bodies to disrupt Memphis turnover laden backcourt. Moreover, the Broncos attack the boards as a strong defensive rebounding team. Boise 7-1 ATS as a dog and 4-1 ATS as a neutral dog. Broncos the call. |
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03-17-22 | South Dakota State +2.5 v. Providence | 57-66 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
SDS/Providence 12:40: Jackrabbits no joke. The Summit League may be an inferior league, but South Dakota State has a shooters chance here. They're #1 in the nation in FG% (52.7%) and 3 point % (45.1%). Led by Summit League Player of Year - Scheierman, the Jackrabbits won 21 straight games and that's impressive in any league. Providence comes in cold, getting blown out 85-58 by Creighton in Big East Tourney. With the Jackrabbits at 10-1 ATS as a neutral site dog, I'm on South Dakota State. |
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03-16-22 | Iona +7 v. Florida | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
Iona/Florida 9:00: Iona a dangerous team here. They won the MAAC Championship for the regular season but got shocked in the MAAC Conference Tournament to Rider by 1 point. The Gaels' HC Pitino is always a rabid dog around tournament time. They covered last year in the Big Dance vs Alabama as a double-digit dog. They beat Alabama outright this year on a neutral floor. Their defense is solid and covered 10 of their last 12 as a road dog. On the other hand, Florida's coach (White) bailed on them to fit the Georgia vacancy. Florida's offense was not proficient and relied on defense to disrupt and create transition baskets. Gators 1-5 as chalk. We'll grab the points with Iona. |
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03-16-22 | Towson +8.5 v. Wake Forest | 64-74 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
Towson/Wake Forest 7:00: Not completely sold on WF. Yes, they had an upgraded season under Forbes in his second year. However, Towson is no pushover. They're the CAAC regular season champions but ran into a hot Delaware team in the conference tournament. They have a well-balanced offense and well-disciplined defensively. Towson has covered 7 straight as a dog and I expect them to cover here. |
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03-15-22 | Indiana -3.5 v. Wyoming | 66-58 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
Indiana/Wyoming 9:10 pm: Big 10 with nine teams going to the Big Dance. And Indiana held its own in what was ruled the power conference by the NCAA Committee. Hoosiers play the favorite role well at 13-6 ATS. Wyoming, on the other hand, started hot from December 23rd through February 12th but then fizzled on a 4-5 SU/3-6 ATS slide. We'll ride Xavier Johnson and the Hoosiers to cover and advance. |
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03-15-22 | Cleveland State +12.5 v. Xavier | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show | |
Cleveland State/Xavier 9:00: Xavier's defense slid down the stretch as they allowed at least 80+ points in 5 of their last 7 games. Vikings have a balanced offensive attack led by 3 double digit scorers and a few others who chip in close to that. Cleveland State has covered 9 of their last 12 dog roles while Xavier has been a money burning home favorite of 2-9 ATS. Take the points. |
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03-14-22 | Bucks v. Jazz +1.5 | 117-111 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 18 m | Show | |
Bucks/Jazz 10:10: Jazz have won nine straight games at home and should remain up for this one. The incumbent champs coming into Utah off a loss at Golden State on Saturday. They should have Lopez (back) and Hill (neck) back on the floor. Lopez hasn't played since late October and surely the high altitude of Utah will sorely test his conditioning. Sure, Utah's big - Gobert is day to day with a foot injury; however, Whiteside turning in quality minutes during his absence. Jazz had Conley rest Saturday but will be back tonight. Clarkson, who dropped 45 on Sacramento, surely stepped up in his absence. And a healthy Mitchell is always dangerous to opponents. Bucks have not done well in Utah at 4-17. And the Jazz have covered 5 straight in this series. We'll look for the 6th to be a charm. |
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03-13-22 | Memphis +4 v. Houston | 53-71 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
Memphis/Houston 3:15: Memphis has owned Houston at 9-1 ATS. They swept the regular season series and were bumped out of this very tournament last year by Houston - sending the disappointed Tigers to the NIT. Memphis surely has the talent to hang in this one and give Houston another run for the money. Tigers the call. |
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03-13-22 | Texas A&M +6.5 v. Tennessee | 50-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
TX A&M/Tennessee 1:00: Going to stay on Texas A&M here. I've been on them all tournament and despite their 4th game in as many days, they're not tired. They outhustled a very good Arkansas team yesterday and Buzz Williams has them pumped. Fortunately, they're getting consistent work out of Jackson, Coleman and Redford; moreover, HC Williams doing a masterful job utilizing their deep bench. Tennessee, on the other hand, looked sloppy yesterday vs Kentucky despite the win. With no guarantee for an at-large for Texas A&M, we'll look for them to take matters in their own hands and deliver today. |
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03-12-22 | Akron +2.5 v. Kent State | 75-55 | Win | 100 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
Zips/Golden Flashes 7:30: Zips on a sweet 7-0 run and took out top seeded Toledo last night. In their last two games, they've gotten off to explosive starts and held on with gritty defense. It's been their moniker most of the season. Kent State is definitely a formidable foe. They've been on a serious run including sweeping the regular season series over Akron. Akron has a veteran team and was here last year only to come close but lose. We'll look for their defense and maturity to carry them here. |
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03-12-22 | Memphis v. SMU +3.5 | 70-63 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
Memphis/SMU 5:30: Practically a home game for SMU in Fort Worth. The Mustangs have won this matchup 5 of last 6 SU including sweeping this year's regular season series. You bet we'll take the points. |
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03-12-22 | Texas A&M +6.5 v. Arkansas | 82-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
TX A&M/Arkansas 1:00: Aggies dropped a Top 5 team (Auburn) yesterday to put them in serious contention of punching their ticket to the Big Dance. A win today, most likely will give them an at-large bid. Arkansas, which already punched their ticket to the Big Dance, has had trouble with A&M. Consider this: Aggies now on a blistering 6 game win streak. And even when the Aggies were mired in the early phase of their eight-game losing streak, they managed to cover vs Arkansas in a 76-73 OT loss at Arkansas. As a matter of fact, Aggies are 6-0 ATS in this series. Buzz Williams has them believing and he's getting consistent, great work out of Jackson, Radford and Coleman III. And they're getting great support from their teammates. Arkansas has been a solid play all season, but we'll look for the Aggies to hang tough. |
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03-11-22 | Richmond v. VCU -2.5 | 75-64 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 51 m | Show | |
03-11-22 | TCU +8 v. Kansas | 62-75 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
03-11-22 | Michigan State v. Wisconsin -1.5 | 69-63 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
Michigan State/Wisconsin 6:30: Izzo doesn't have the greatest team this year; after all, when challenged against quality teams at neutral sites and on the road, they fell short: Blown out on neutral floors vs Kansas and Baylor, and lost handily on the road in conference play at Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa. On the other hand, Wisconsin was solid on neutral floors defeating Houston, Saint Mary's and Texas A&M. And they were solid on the Big 10 road with wins at Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana and Rutgers - all strong home floors. The key here is if their big time scorer and facilitator - Jonathan Davis - is OK; after all, he sprained his ankle last Saturday early in the defeat to Nebraska. He's had time to heal and apparently he's good to go. We'll roll with Wisconsin. |
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03-11-22 | St. Louis -1.5 v. St Bonaventure | 57-56 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
03-10-22 | Oregon v. Colorado | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
Analysis to follow.... |
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03-10-22 | Miami-OH v. Kent State -6.5 | 75-85 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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03-10-22 | Butler +8 v. Providence | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Butler/Providence Noon: Had Butler yesterday and delivered big. Today, I'm back on the Bulldogs. Providence is having a great year and well coached; however, they're solidified in the Big Dance and limited in motivation after sweeping regular season series. Providence just 7-20 ATS vs teams with losing records, 3-13 ATS on neutral sites. Butler may have been swept in regular season series but put-up heavy fight in both games with covers. Butler rises to the occasion vs teams above .600 as they exhibited yesterday. Now 8-1 ATS in that role. We'll grab the points. |
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03-10-22 | Florida v. Texas A&M +2.5 | 80-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Florida/Texas A&M Noon: Aggies went on an 8-game skid in late January through mid-February, yet never gave up hope. HC Buzz Williams held them together and they finished the regular season strong on a 5-1 SU/ATS tear, including the Florida win that ignited the run. Dog is 4-1 ATS in this series and we'll jump on Texas A&M. |
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03-09-22 | West Virginia +1.5 v. Kansas State | 73-67 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
West Virginia/Kansas State 7:00: We won't dismiss the Mountaineers yet despite their disastrous 1-7 SU slide. Bob Huggins doesn't have his most talented bunch, but he's gotten less talented teams to the NCAA Tournament. Of course, the Mounties will need to win the Big 12 Tournament to get the automatic big this year and the odds are stacked against them; however, WV cleaned up their game against TCU Saturday and enter here with a bit of confidence. The Wildcats, however, have lost 5 straight since beating WV February 14th. Their second leading scorer - Nowell - is hobbled with a bad hamstring and that hurts. Mounties play the neutral site dog role well at 4-1 ATS and we'll grab them here. |
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03-09-22 | Butler +5.5 v. Xavier | 89-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
Butler/Xavier 4:30: Not comfortable with Xavier laying points at MSG. Xavier's 97-75 route of Georgetown on Saturday is clearly no validation that the Musketeers are tournament ready; after all, prior to that, they lost 7 of their last 8 games. Xavier is 0-8 ATS off a SU win, 0-4 ATS as a neutral favorite. On the other hand, Butler is on an 0-5 SU slide; however, they're 5-1 ATS off a SU loss and 9-3 ATS as a dog. They're not an easy out. Sure, Xavier swept them in the regular season; however, the Bulldogs were swept last year by the Musketeers and ended up winning the Big East Tournament First Round in OT after Xavier squandered a 19-point first half lead. A healthy Aarron Thompson gives Butler a fighting chance here. Take Butler. |