Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-18-19 | Alabama -8.5 v. Samford | 105-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
Alabama/Samford 7:30: At first glance, Samford seems like a play; after all, they're undefeated at home and now getting points from a team that struggles on the road. A second glance though reveals that Samford's home floor is merely an hour from Tuscaloosa. Alabama plans to have a good fan base here that Coach Oats has captured. And 'Tide still has the talent strength to the Bulldogs. Sure, Sharkey is talented and trouble but Alabama goes nine qaulity deep despite early season talent losses to injuries. Tide starting to find their groove in the Nate Oats' system. They cut back significantly on turnovers in last game at Penn State almost upsetting them to go on a 5-1 ATS tear. Samford, however, is coming off a blowout at Hawaii on the 15th. And surely, teams coming back from Hawaii will feel the jet lag, among other things. Tide should deliver here. |
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12-17-19 | Florida -5 v. Providence | 83-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Florida/Providence 7:00: This one is set at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY and I'm going with the Gators here. They're coming off a loss to #19 Butler and Coach White wasn't happy pointing out the immaturity of his team. I heard that message before and it should be a wake up call for the Gators; after all, they do have a signature win this season over Xavier so they're definitely capable of delivering here. Providence, on the other hand, is a shaky 1-8 ATS despite being handed a light schedule. The Friars do have a dangerous backcourt in Duke and Pipkins but overall, Gators much deeper and talented. Gators 6-1 ATS as a neutral floor favorite and we'll lay a little wood here. |
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12-16-19 | Colts +10 v. Saints | 7-34 | Loss | -123 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
Colts/Saints 8:15: Will take the points with a Colts team that has a tendency to stick around and fight. Sure, the Colts are looking for their first SU win since November 17th; however, they've lost 4 of their last 6 by 4 points or fewer. And consider this, Indy sports a sweet 11-2 ATS mark vs teams above .500. Brissett has done an admirable job at the controls. He has an underrated offensive line that should spring 1000+ yard rusher Mack against a Saints defensive front missing two key players in Rankins and Davenport (out for season). And even without Hilton (questionable), others step up such as Pascal. Colts have done well in the red zone where they convert 64% of the time. Saints defense struggles in the red zone allowing nearly 60% conversion. Colts defensively, they'll need to step up like they did vs KC earlier in the year. Colts are 23-9 ATS in December and 5-1 ATS on MNF. Saints struggle at 1-5 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games vs non division opponents. And coming off the physical battle with SF, they won't have an easy time here. |
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12-15-19 | Jaguars v. Raiders OVER 47 | 20-16 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Jaguars/Raiders 4:05: Both of these defenses are nearly non-existent over the last few weeks. Makes way for a shoot out with Minshew III and Carr. Jaguars are allowing tons of yardage on the ground and Raiders' RB Jacobs (shoulder) is begging to get back on the field for this one. Heavy "over" trends for both teams and this series is 4-1 O/U. Over the call. |
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12-15-19 | Dolphins v. Giants OVER 45 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 102 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Dolphins/Giants 1:00: Offense should be at a discount today in East Rutherford. With a reasonable December forecast in the offing, gunslingers Fitzpatrick and Manning should be airing it out vs vulnerable secondaries. Fitzpatrick will have Parker and Wilson - both cleared - to operate with against a Giants' secondary - now missing CB Jenkins (released) - that's been torched repeatedly. Giants defense ranks in the bottom tier in yards and points allowed. And Eli Manning still has some juice with a healthy Barkley, Golden Tate and newfound weapon Darius Slayton helping him out. Should find plenty of green grass leading to the end zone vs a Dolphins' defense dead last in points allowed. Giants 5-1 O/U after scoring less than 15 points. These teams are a combined 15-5 O/U off a SU loss. "Over" easy. |
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12-15-19 | Dolphins v. Giants -3 | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Giants 1:00: Not a fan of the Giants' defense lead by a lame duck DC Bettcher. Giants' defense confused at times, out of position, stupid penalties and poor tackling; nevertheless, Dolphins out of the their element here this time of year. Dolphins off a crushing controversial loss and sport a 21-33 ATS in December and 1-4 ATS in Week 15. With a defense in the bottom of the NFL in points allowed (31), Eli Manning should bring back the old magic to keep him above .500 in his outstanding career. Giants are 6-1 ATS after the Eagles, 5-2 ATS off a double-digit loss at home, 4-1 ATS in Week 15, and 7-2 ATS vs teams below .500. NY should get it done here as Manning outguns Fitzpatrick. |
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12-15-19 | Broncos +10.5 v. Chiefs | 3-23 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Broncos/Chiefs 1:00: Broncos was a big play for me last week and I'm staying on them here. They're 2-0 SU with QB Drew Lock at the controls as he's finding a rhythm uplifting the offense significantly. Chiefs' defense leaves much to be desired. A good mix with RB Lindsay, against a KC run-stop-unit ranked 28th in the NFL, should open up some more successful play-action for Lock. Denver's looking to avenge their embarrassing 30-6 home loss in Week 7. Denver 6-0 ATS off back-to-back SU ATS wins (last as a dog). KC coming off a huge win over NE and we'll bet their a little sluggish in this one. |
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12-15-19 | Patriots -10 v. Bengals | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Patriots/Bengals 1:00: The only incentive Cincinnati has at this stage is to tank and lock in Joe Burrow as their franchise QB. Patriots in a bad mood after a rare 0-2 skid and should take it out on the floundering Bengals. Bengals' Mixon running well but Belichick's defense should step up their game here taking away the biggest threat. As for QB Dalton, he lost another weapon in Tate (knee) last week. With limited weaponry and a poor defense, a good bounce back game for the incumbent champs should ensue. |
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12-14-19 | Gonzaga v. Arizona OVER 151.5 | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show | |
12-14-19 | Army +11.5 v. Navy | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 12 m | Show | |
Army/Navy 3:00: Historically a low scoring game, this one sets up as one too. With light drizzle, and two run games worth note (Navy #1/Army #2), lots of clock eating here. At the same time, both teams very similar in production on both sides of the ball. QBs Perry (Navy) and Hopkins (Army) lead dangerous triple option teams - both limited in passing. Hopkins did bang up his leg in the last game in Hawaii but good to go. Army surely underachieved this season and won't be bowling but they were in almost every game; as a matter of fact, they lost 6 of 7 by single digits. Army won this one 3 straight and they won't be bowling this year; however, Army will consider this as their bowl keeping this one tight. Army the call. |
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12-14-19 | Syracuse +3 v. Georgetown | 79-89 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Syracuse/Georgetown 1:00: Georgetown, already lost Gardner and Alexander, now down to 7 scholarship players after the latest incident involving LeBlanc and Akinjo. Probably not directly going to come in to play in this game, but the depth will later in the year. For now, it's bad for the program. In this series, the road team has gone 10-2 ATS and the dog 8-3 ATS. Boeheim has his zone defense gradually working in to a disruptive force, forcing turnovers and creating points off it. Georgetown is turnover prone (16.7 per game) and should fall victim here. We'll look for Hughes and company to deliver the goods. |
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12-14-19 | Oregon +3.5 v. Michigan | 71-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Oregon/Michigan Noon: Oregon has been a dangerous road team under Altman for years. The Ducks have covered 10 of their last 11 road games and were extremely competitive this season going 3-1 ATS against the likes of Memphis (W), Seton Hall (W), Gonzaga (OT) and a narrow loss at UNC. Sure, Oregon has a few players that will sit out but depth is there and Altman know how to use his bench. We'll look for Pritchard and company to keep it tight for the Michigan defense (173rd in nation) will allow the Ducks to stay in it. |
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12-13-19 | Nebraska v. Indiana -16 | 90-96 | Loss | -111 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
Nebraska/Indiana 8:00: At first glance, Nebraska seems to be the call; after all, they beat them outright last year on Indiana's home floor and have Fred Hoiberg, who had success years ago at Iowa State, now running the show. With a closer look, however, we see that Nebraska hasn't beaten a good team yet and the cupboard was left bare for Hoiberg in terms of quality recruits. The 'Huskers are poor defensively and worse - ridiculously bad on the defensive boards (next to last in NCAA Division 1A) and a pathetic free throw shooting team at 56%. Therefore, if they don't outscore their opponent, they most likely won't win. That doesn't bode well against the vengeful Hoosiers. Indiana is gradually getting back their early season scoring prowess as they get healthy. Hoosiers are a strong boarding team (9th in the nation) and can put points on the board (81 PPG). They're 5-1 ATS at home and 5-2 ATS on Fridays. Hoosiers should roll. |
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12-12-19 | Jets v. Ravens -15.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
Jets/Ravens 8:20: Jets are winning games but against lightweights. And when they did beat up some winning teams - Dallas 10/13 and I had them against Oakland on Nov 24th, it was at East Rutherford. Going on the road is a different story. The Jets are in the bottom of the NFL in offensive rushing and it will hurt them here. Baltimore brings a hard charging defense that's quite opportunistic (+8 turnover margin). And Darnold is at his most vulnerable on the road. On the other hand, Lamar Jackson and company are cranking it up and the #1 rushing team in the NFL at 200.9 YPG is rolling over defenses. Sure, NY has a good run-stop-unit but Q. Williams (neck) is a big defensive line force who will be missed; moreover, the Jets' secondary will be without 3 of their starters. Remember, Jackson has thrown 28 TD passes this season including 16 over the last 5 games. Baltimore juggernaut should continue to roll in prime time as they vie for the #1 seed. |
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12-12-19 | 76ers v. Celtics +1.5 | 115-109 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
12-11-19 | Wisconsin v. Rutgers -2 | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Rutgers 7:00: Rutgers no joke at home. A good scoring mix lead by Harper Jr., Johnson and Baker. And they've got some juice coming off the bench with Yeboah and Young. Rutgers off a pair of tough road losses including Sunday staying within the number at Michigan State. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is feeling pretty good about themselves off a blowout over Indiana; however, they struggle to generate offense on the road and ranked 256th offensively. Rutgers can D UP at home and I like them here. Home team in this series is 5-1 ATS. Rutgers the call. |
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12-10-19 | Maryland v. Penn State +2 | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
Maryland/Penn State 7:00: This series has been home dominant with the home team winning outright the last 5 times. Penn State has a strong floor and a veteran team coming off a blowout loss to a very good team in Ohio State. Penn State was in that game (trailing by single digits with 14 minutes left) until their star - Lamar Stevens fouled out. Penn State goes when Stevens goes. He does have a good surrounding cast that should keep Cowan and company in check. Maryland came back from the dead to win their last game at Illinois. Maryland won't have an easy time here. We'll grab the bucket. |
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12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles OVER 44.5 | 17-23 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
Giants/Eagles 8:15: This series has gone "over" in 6 of the last 7 meetings and I expect another high scoring game here. Eli Manning returns and there might be a bit more magic left; after all, he's got some decent receivers to go to in Golden Tate and Darius Slayton along with now healthy RB Barkley. He faces a Philly defense that struggles against the pass. And remember, the Dolphins hung 37 on them last week. As for the Giants' defense, Wentz and company should thrash them. Giants haven't stopped any team worth note all season. They allow 28.3 PPG - bottom tier of NFL. Giants are 7-1 O/U on the road and 5-1 O/U after scoring less than 15 points previously. "Over" easy. |
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12-08-19 | Seahawks +1 v. Rams | 12-28 | Loss | -111 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
Seattle/Los Angeles 8:20: Seattle has been doing their best work on the road (6-1 ATS) and, as a I mentioned before, Pete Carroll is the prime time king. Seattle won this matchup in Week 5 yet are playing better at this stage of the season. Mid season arrivals - Clowney and Josh Gordon are making big contributions. And RB Penny adding to the potent run game with Carson behind a strong offensive line. OC Shottenheimer doing a good job mixing it up as QB Wilson continues to play at a high level. Rams want revenge from earlier season defeat; however, they're just 1-10 ATS at home with revenge off a division road game. We'll ride the Seahawks here. |
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12-08-19 | 49ers +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 48-46 | Win | 100 | 33 h 13 m | Show |
49ers/Saints 1:00: 49ers fought a hard battle last week and nearly pulled off a win vs the hottest team in the NFL. San Francisco's defense exhibited its quickness last week doing a pretty good job against the MVP frontrunner - Lamar Jackson. 49ers' defense will have another stern test against a potent New Orleans' offense. I believe the #1 defense in the NFL is up for the challenge. Saints didn't look all that sharp last week vs a weak Atlanta defense. Saints will face a significant upgrade in front four and secondary. Saints miss RB Ingram (Baltimore) ranking 17th in rushing this year. That will be a problem against this hard nosed SF defense. On the other side of the ball, the 49ers have a strong run game with a loaded backfield and Garoppolo has sharpened in recent weeks after TE Kittle got back in the lineup. 49ers a strong road team at 5-1 ATS and I like them here. |
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12-08-19 | Broncos +10.5 v. Texans | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Broncos/Texans 1:00: Broncos on a nice 4-1 ATS run and most likely found their future QB in Lock who did some good things last week against the Chargers. They've covered 5 of their last 7 road dog roles. Sure, Watson is playing great but him and his mates should have a bit of a letdown off that huge win against New England last week. Houston is a mere 1-8 ATS at home vs the AFC West and just 1-5 ATS as home chalk. We'll look for Denver to keep it tight here. |
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12-08-19 | Colts +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Colts/Bucs 1:00: Colts are a respectable 6-2 ATS on the road, 3-1-1 ATS as a road dog, and 5-0 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Reich is a quality coach at figuring out what needs to be done. He put them on a nice roll down the stretch last year and should be able to rebound here; after all, Colts are 7-1 ATS on the road vs the NFC South, 5-0 ATS in this series. Colts actually outgained the Titans last week but 3 turnovers did them in. We'll look for refined play here vs a Bucs team that's 8-20 ATS as home chalk, 2-10 ATS in Week 14 and failed to cover in their last 5 home games. Colts' defense had a winning formula at KC vs the potent Chiefs offense on October 6th. We'll look for Indy to force Winston in mistakes today. And with the emergence of Pascal at WR, Brissett and company should work a TB pass defense that allows 282 YPG. Bucs a dismal 2-13 ATS off back to back away games and should succumb here. |