Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 219.5 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #549 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - The Bucks most recent road game stayed under the total but that ended a perfect 6-0 streak of overs in Milwaukee road games. The fact is that the Bucks are truly proving very difficult to stop as they have scored 28 points or more in 6 of the last 7 quarters in this series. In addition to Milwaukee piling up the points, I also like the fact that the Raptors are now back home and they did score 64 points in the 2nd half of Game 2 which gives them some momentum and confidence on the offensive end despite being in an 0-2 hole in the series. Also, Toronto jumped on the Bucks in Game 1 of this series with a 59 point first half. They just couldn't sustain it. But, at home, the Raptors are likely to sustain a strong performance on offense and, at the same time, I just don't see them stopping Milwaukee considering how potent their production on offense has been. The Bucks are not only 6-1 to the over in their last 7 games away from home, they are also 8-4 to the over this season in games in which they are an underdog. Toronto is 19-11 to the over when playing with revenge this season. The Raptors are averaging 114 points in home games this season while Milwaukee averages 117 points per game in road games this season. Yes this is playoff basketball but we've seen huge scoring stretches from both teams already in this series and I like the fact the Raptors are on their home floor and need to respond with a huge performance on the offensive end but also won't be able to stop the Bucks. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
|||||||
05-19-19 | Blues +120 v. Sharks | Top | 5-0 | Win | 120 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #21 Sunday 10* Top Play St Louis Blues Money Line (+) @ San Jose Sharks @ 3:05 ET - The Sharks look like an easy choice here, right? They managed to even the series up by winning Game 3 at St Louis and they now have the home ice edge again in the series as a result. However, I love the Blues in this spot. The reasons are multiple. For one thing Erik Karlsson is a key player for San Jose and he does have an injury issue right now. A lot of details are currently known in terms of his availability today but, even if he plays, he is nowhere close to 100%. The key here is that the Sharks had a chance to go in for the kill against the Blues in Game 4 and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. The Blues were on the ropes after a frustrating Game 3 loss. In my mind Game 4 was the game for the Sharks to put away St Louis as the Blues would have been fragile mentally after the way they felt they lost Game 3 in OT on a missed call. As it turns out, San Jose failed to take advantage of the situation and St Louis has new life in this series and they will play like it today. Keep in mind the Sharks blew leads of 2-0 and 3-1 in Game 3 of this series and were a bit fortunate to get the win. Then in Game 4 San Jose was down 1-0 right away and eventually 2-0 and they never managed to tie it up. There is a lot to like about the way the Blues have been playing and I am happy to grab them at the underdog price. What about the home ice edge you say? Well the road team is 11-6 in St Louis' playoff games in this post-season! Also, the Blues have won 6 of their 8 playoff road games. 10* ST LOUIS |
|||||||
05-19-19 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 1:10 ET - It will be another hitter-friendly afternoon at a very hitter-friendly venue on Sunday afternoon. No need to rest any hitters here either as both teams have an off-day tomorrow. After the Reds got shutout Friday and the Dodgers got shutout Saturday, look for both teams to finally contribute well to the total in Sunday's match-up. Yes, the Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu gives the appearance (from his last 3 starts) that he is practically unhittable, note that this match-up will play out much differently. First off all 3 of those starts were at pitcher-friendly venues - 2 at Dodger Stadium and 1 at San Francisco against the punch-less Giants. In his last 3 starts against the Reds, Ryu has a 5.79 ERA and has allowed 22 hits (including 5 homers) in just 14 innings of work. The Dodgers southpaw gave up 4 earned runs in 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his first two road starts this season. He'll be tested big time this afternoon at hitter-friendly Cincy on a warm afternoon with the wind blowing out to left at a strong clip. The Dodgers should also pound Tanner Roark. He is on the fade right now and gave up 8 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start. Simply put, he was lucky the damage wasn't worse in terms of earned runs and that means his status as a "fade candidate" is currently flying "under the radar". We can step in and take advantage. Roark's recent stats were skewed by facing the A's at Oakland and facing the light-hitting Giants. Note that in his other starts this season he has been consistently hit quite hard and I look for the Dodgers to light him up after being shutout yesterday. This is a contrarian play compared to what the markets are seeing and that is precisely the type of play I love the most as we get the best value. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
|||||||
05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -2 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #548 Saturday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The home team has won 3 straight in match-ups between these teams. The Trail Blazers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings in Portland. Many will be happy to grab the Warriors plus the points in the rare role of an underdog for them but, in typical contrarian fashion I am going against Golden State here. The Blazers actually had a 15 point lead at halftime of Game 2. Portland trailed by only 6 points heading to the 4th quarter in Game 1. The point is that the Trail Blazers saw each game slip away from them in the 4th quarter as, even after a horrific 3rd quarter in Game 2, they were still tied going to the 4th and had a late lead before falling just short. These things are understandable on the road. But, at home, I don't expect Portland to collapse late as they have done in each of the first two games. The fact that the Warriors are finding out that Kevin Durant's injury is a little worse than originally thought is also unlikely to help the psyche of Golden State heading into this one. As for the Trail Blazers, they will have a high motor in this game as they are back home and ready to get right back into this series after letting each of the first two games slip away late. The Game 2 loss was particularly disheartening for the Blazers but heading back home after that 3-point defeat will have Portland firing on all cylinders in this one. The Trail Blazers are 23-3 SU in their last 26 home games. The Warriors are 3-5 ATS in their last 8 road games. 10* PORTLAND |
|||||||
05-18-19 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - The Dodgers delivered the shutout win last night. The over is 20-11 when Los Angeles is off a game in which they shut out their opponent. I look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season in LA day games. The weather will be hot and steamy in Cincinnati this afternoon with the winds blowing out toward left center. These are the types of weather days where Great American Ball Park (known as a very hitter-friendly venue) plays out particularly well for the hitters. Even though Walker Buehler has good numbers this season the over is 3-1 in his road starts as he has compiled a 5.40 ERA away from home thus far. Buehler has had success in his two career starts against the Reds but both those were at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Now with Cincinnati getting a shot at him at home and with the fact they just faced him last month, I look for the Reds sticks to perform much better today. Keep in mind, Cincinnati had scored an average of 7 runs per game in their 7 home games prior to being shutout last night. As for the Dodgers bats, they have scored 6 runs in 3 of their last 4 games and should enjoy success against Tyler Mahle in this one. LA just faced him last month and got to him for 4 earned runs on 11 hits in just 6 innings of work. The only other start Mahle has against the Dodgers saw him walk 4 batters in just 5 innings of work. You can see why success is unlikely for the Reds right-hander today. Cincy is off rare back to back unders at home as the over was on a 6-1 run in the Reds 7 home games prior to this. All signs point to both teams having plenty of success at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
|||||||
05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 216 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #545 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:35 ET - Inexplicably, the Raptors fell apart in the 4th quarter Wednesday. Inexplicably, Toronto has shot 38.2% or less from the field in back to back games. Of course the result has been back to back unders but Game 1 of this series totaled 208 points even though neither team shot above 39.8% from the field and that tells you quite a lot! The fact is that with even just a slight uptick in shooting percentages (and certainly an improvement is likely given the long-term history of these teams) we should easily get past this total. The Game 2 total is now lower than the Game 1 total even though one could easily argue that it should be higher given how bad the shooting was Wednesday and yet the game still totaled 208. I see this one flying over the total. The Bucks will be going for the kill as they can sense blood in the water and a chance to go up 2-0. The Raptors hungry to atone for their horrific 4th quarter in Game 1 and Toronto will be very aggressive in transition and in the offensive end as they bounce back from B2B poor efforts offensively. There have only been 4 other times this season that the Raptors have been held to 41.6% or less from the field in back to back games. ALL FOUR times their next game has gone OVER the total. Also, Toronto is 11-4 to the over in Friday games this season. Milwaukee has now recorded 3 straight unders. Dating all the way back the Christmas, when the Bucks enter a game off 3 or more consecutive unders, the over has gone 5-1 and I expect these situational trends to continue to be spot on! 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
|||||||
05-17-19 | Sharks +124 v. Blues | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Playoff Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #17 Friday 10* Top Play San Jose Sharks Money Line (+) @ St Louis Blues @ 8:05 ET - On the one hand, many will be looking at the Blues to bounce back here on home ice in Game 4 after the way Game 3 finished. In that game Wednesday St Louis allowed the tying goal with just a minute to go in the 3rd period and then gave up a controversial game-winning goal in overtime. However, I view this quite differently. First off, the Sharks have all the momentum off that win. Secondly, San Jose twice had a two goal lead in that game (up 2-0 and up 3-1) and they know they never even should have put themselves in that spot. Thirdly, all the pressure on the Blues here as they know that going into a 3-1 series hole with 2 of the next 3 games (if necessary) on enemy ice would likely prove insurmountable. So the Sharks come into this game relaxed and confident while the Blues are putting a lot of pressure on themselves and still distracted by the Game 3 ending. Last, but certainly not least, I feel it can not be ignored that home ice has been a hindrance rather than a help in playoff games involving St Louis is in this post-season. The road team has prevailed in 11 of the Blues 16 games in these playoffs. Look for the Blues to drop to 3-11 in their last 14 games in conference finals action. Contrarian play I know but this has worked very well for me throughout this post-season. 10* SAN JOSE |
|||||||
05-17-19 | Rockies v. Phillies -117 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #904 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - The Rockies are hitting just .217 on the road this season. Of course they have never seen Phillies rookie Cole Irvin as he just made his MLB debut in a start versus the Royals Sunday. The Philadelphia southpaw was very impressive and certainly earned a second start as the Phils are evaluating him for a possible spot in the rotation. The Rockies are different team when they are away from their hitter-friendly home venue - Coors Field in Denver. That said, I like backing this Phillies team in a bounce back spot as they have lost 3 straight games and all were at home! This matches Philadelphia's longest losing streak of the season and they snapped that one at 3 games and I feel strongly they will do the same here. Yes, Colorado's Jon Gray did have a strong start versus the Phillies last month and has a decent history against them. However, Gray has never won at Citizens Bank Park and allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent outing here. Also, the Rockies right-hander has had trouble with the Phillies 4 key off-season acquisitions too. Harper, Realmuto, McCutchen, and Segura all have great numbers against Gray. Since his strong start against the Phillies, Gray has actually been struggling as he has a 7.16 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in his 3 starts since then. The Rockies have lost 13 of 21 this season when off a loss. The Phils have won 12 of 18 when off a loss this season. The Phillies also have won 3 of 4 this season when off a game in which they allowed double digits in runs. After getting embarrassed by losing 3 straight to the Brewers after winning the series opener, the Phils get back on track with a big home win against a lesser foe as the road-adverse Rockies come to town. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
05-16-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The Blazers shot 36% in Game 1 while the Warriors shot 50%. Portland turned the ball over 21 times compared to Golden State giving it up just 14 times. Even with that, the Trail Blazers were down by just a single digit margin with under 5 minutes to go before the wheels completely came off in the eventual loss by 22 points. The fact is we're getting great line value to again be offered the same line in Game 2 with Kevin Durant again out for Golden State and with the Blazers very likely to play much better in this one. This season, when Portland is on the road and coming off a game in which they were held to less than 100 points, the Trail Blazers are a perfect 4-0 ATS! This season, the Warriors are 3-6 ATS when they are off a game where they allowed less than 98 points. The fact is that game one was an unusual result and you can see what recent history suggests happens after a game like that and I see Portland coming up huge in game two. Damian Lillard's hamstring issue is minor and the Blazers have not failed to cover back to back meetings with the Warriors since their playoffs series two years ago! In meetings between these teams since April 24, 2017 the Trail Blazers were 5-2 ATS before failing to cover Game 1 of this series. Look for the bounce back here and at least the cover as an outright upset would not surprise me here! Look for the Warriors to drop to 3-6 ATS in this post-season when leading in a playoff series and keep in mind Golden State is only 4-4 SU in these playoffs when they hold the lead in a series. 10* PORTLAND |
|||||||
05-16-19 | Bruins v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #15 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Carolina Hurricanes vs Boston Bruins @ 8:05 ET - I look for a wide-open game here after Game 3 was a 2-1 final. The fact is the Bruins are up 3-0 in this series and can go in for the kill. I expect Boston to be very aggressive here as a result as they would love to finish this off now. As for Hurricanes, they have totaled only 5 goals in this series thus far. There is no tomorrow for Carolina if they lose on Thursday. That said, they know they need to take chances in Game 4, they need to be willing to risk some defensive shortfalls by being more aggressive with risk-taking to create the highest quality scoring chances possible. Of course that is because Tuukka Rask is currently on an incredible run for the Bruins. He has been fantastic between the pipes but I expect Carolina to throw everything but the kitchen sink at him in this one. Prior to Game 3 staying under the total, the Hurricanes were 4-0 to the over in their 4 prior games overall. Also, Carolina entered Game 3 on a 3-0 run to the over in their 3 prior home games. As for the Bruins, they have scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 6 games. I look for the Boston scoring surge to resume here after the initial rally around the Hurricanes goalie change has now subsided. Going to McElhinney in Game 3 produced better results for the Hurricanes but they still lost and their focus in this Game 4 is on offensive production as they simply must solve Rask. To do that, as noted above, taking a few more chances with their game plan and style of play is absolutely paramount. 8 of 11 meetings, prior to Tuesday's game, had gone over the total and these teams resume normalcy in their series and combine for another one going over the total in Game 4 on Thursday. 10* OVER the total in Carolina |
|||||||
05-16-19 | Rangers v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 16-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers @ 1:15 ET - Perfect set up here in many ways. Yesterday's game was a 6-1 Rangers win that stayed under the total so that is helping to keep this total off the radar of the betting markets as, to many, a 10 may look too big. The fact is that this should be an absolutely slugfest. The temperatures will be in the 80s this afternoon in Kansas City. The wind will be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium. The Rangers bullpen (4.87 ERA) and the Royals bullpen (4.59 ERA) both rank among the worst in the majors! As for the starting pitching match-up here we have Lance Lynn for Texas and Homer Bailey for KC. The fact is that Lynn has seen his better years at the major league level. He has a 5.48 ERA this season and a 5.13 ERA in his career starts against the Royals. Lynn allowed 3 homers at Houston in his most recent start and this followed an outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings against the Blue Jays. As for Bailey, he is off a rare strong start. Yes, prior to a solid outing against the Phillies, he also was successful but that was against the punch-less Tigers. In his two outings prior to that Bailey gave up 8 earned runs in 7 innings of work. From 2015 to 2018, Bailey was hit at a better than .300 clip all 4 seasons and he compiled an ERA north of 6.00 in those 4 seasons combined. He has trended better than usual early this season but still his overall numbers are not that impressive and you know a regression to the mean is right around the corner. Look for it to begin today in very hitter friendly conditions at Kauffman Stadium. The over is 10-2 in Rangers day games this season. The over is 19-8 this season in Royals games when they are off a loss. KC also is a solid 13-7 to the over in day games. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
|||||||
05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 216.5 | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:30 ET - The Raptors Game 7 against the 76ers was a very ugly game as it seemed all the Toronto players (other than Kawhi Leonard) were tentative as they avoided being aggressive in terms of shooting the ball or driving to the hoop. Everyone just looked to get the ball to Leonard. The strategy eventually paid off (barely) and the Raptors won the game on the already infamous last season quadruple bounce shot from Kawhi. The fact is that ugly result is helping lead to some line value here as this total has dropped to as low as a 216.5 early this morning. This one is likely to play out much differently as the Raptors will be more aggressive all over the floor on offense but I don't foresee them stopping these Bucks either. Milwaukee, of course, is entering this game with plenty of rest and their fresh legs will be happy to push the pace as they look to run Toronto up and down the court all night long. The Bucks know the rest factor is strongly in their advantage. Milwaukee had that one ugly game against Boston in Game 1 but that is the only time in their last 16 games that the Bucks have been held to less than 113 points! Talk about consistency on offense! Milwaukee has averaged 123 points per game in those 15 games! So if they were to hit their normal average over the past 7 weeks and the odds makers are right about the line on the side here, this final scored would be 123 to 117 and total 240 points. Now I am not saying it will hit that high but I am saying that based on the way the Bucks have been playing and the likely style they will play tonight, we have a lot of value with the rather low total posted on this game! Milwaukee's final two games with the Celtics in the second round stayed under the total but truly Boston was horrific on offense. Note that, prior to that, the over was 11-3 in the Bucks last 14 games. The Raptors are playing this game with home loss revenge and that is a situation that has seen them go 26-12 to the over including 10-3 to the over this season! 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
|||||||
05-15-19 | Sharks +125 v. Blues | Top | 5-4 | Win | 125 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #13 Wednesday 10* Top Play San Jose Sharks Money Line (+) @ St Louis Blues @ 8:05 ET - After losing game two on home ice I am fully expecting a huge response from the Sharks in game three as this series shifts to St Louis. When tied up in a playoff series in this postseason San Jose has been fantastic as they have won 4 of 5. The Blues, prior to Monday's win, had lost 9 of their last 11 games in conference finals action. Also, the Sharks, prior to Monday's loss, had won 5 of the last 7 games between these hockey clubs. St Louis playoff games in this postseason have been dominated by the road team. With the Blues upset win in Game 2 the road team has won 10 of 15 games in St Louis postseason action this spring. I look for that trend to continue here with another road upset as the veteran goalie Martin Jones and the Sharks bounce back against the rookie goalie Jordan Binnington and the Blues. 10* SAN JOSE |
|||||||
05-15-19 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 3:40 PM ET - This total dropping to a 7.5 has opened up some great value with the over. Of course the total was low to begin with because of Zack Greinke being on the mound for Arizona. Chris Archer goes for Pittsburgh and, though not at Greinke's level, he also is a respected pitcher. However, the key to the value here is the low total combined with a couple other key factors. For one thing, Archer has been out for a couple weeks with right thumb inflammation. I don't expect him to be operating at his highest level in his first start back. He has a 5.73 ERA on the road this season and struggling more away from home is not a new trend either. Entering this season, Archer had a 4.92 ERA away from home in the past 3 seasons combined. Greinke does have a history of success against the Pirates but Pittsburgh has been extra scrappy of late and playing their best ball of the season. I would not be surprised to see them enjoy some moderate success today against Greinke as the Bucs have won 9 of their last 13 games. With yesterday's 6-2 win here at Arizona, the Pirates have scored an average of 5 runs per game in their past 10 games. The Diamondbacks, prior to being held to just 2 runs in yesterday's loss, had averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their past 11 games. The over is a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times the Dbacks were off a game in which they were held to 2 or less runs. The Pirates over was 8-2-1 in May prior to yesterday's game staying under the total. Since April 21st, Pittsburgh has recorded back to back unders only ONE single time. That said, though this may be viewed as a contrarian play here I look for this game to get over the total as the hitters are going to surprise in this one. There are 15 teams in the National League and, in terms of bullpen ERA this season, the Pirates rank 12th and the Diamondbacks rank 13th. We should be in line to get some late inning runs if needed but I do expect some runs early and often in this one. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
|||||||
05-14-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 94-116 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Playoff Hot Side - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Tuesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Without Kevin Durant, the Warriors are impacted more than just on the offensive end. Golden State allowed 47% to the Rockets in Game 6 without Durant on the floor. Note that the Blazers come into this match-up having allowed only 41.5% from the field in their last 6 games against the Nuggets. 3 of those 6 games were played on Denver's homes floor where they are so tough. The fact is that there are still many doubters about Portland but this team is for real. The Trail Blazers saw CJ McCollum take over in Game 6 at Denver when Damon Lilliard was having a rare sub-par game. That gives Portland a strong enough backcourt to compete with the Warriors. The fact that Rodney Hood is doubtful for this game does hurt the Blazers depth in their frontcourt (already without Jusuf Nurkic of course) but keep in mind the Warriors are not only without KD but also DeMarcus Cousins. Portland has won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and that includes the most recent meeting at Golden State. The Blazers are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games and I like having them plus big points as they will be going hard in Game 1 to steal a game at Golden State while Durant is out. The Warriors got the outright upset at Houston in Game 6 but were 4-9 ATS in their 13 prior games. Golden State is also 2-5 ATS when off an outright upset win as an underdog. Also, the Warriors are 11-24 ATS their last 35 Tuesday games. I find it hard to believe that the Warriors are justified in being a 7.5 point favorite here over the Blazers when this very same lineup was a 7.5 point dog at Houston! Even factoring in home court of 3 points each way that is still saying that the Rockets are 9 points better than the Blazers! I don't believe that for a second. Yes the Warriors have a rest edge here but Portland did have two days off before facing Denver on Sunday and they are riding a positive wave of emotion right now. I look for the Blazers to be in this one all the way. 10* PORTLAND |
|||||||
05-14-19 | Bruins v. Hurricanes -110 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Playoff Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #12 Tuesday 10* Top Play Carolina Hurricanes Money Line (-) vs Boston Bruins @ 8:05 ET - Desperate times bring desperate measures and you will see a desperate Hurricanes team doing everything they can here on home ice to get back into this series. Yes, the first two games ended up being ugly losses at Boston but remember that Carolina was also left for dead after dropping the first two games of their first round series with the Capitals. The Hurricanes responded by winning 4 of the last 5 including all 4 on home ice. In fact, the Canes enter this Game 3 match-up having won 7 straight at home and also 21 of their last 26 games as a host! Yes indeed, Carolina is tough in Raleigh and they also are 10-1 this season in home games with a posted total of 5.5 goals. The Bruins have lost 6 of their last 10 (-$3,600) when leading in a playoff series. Shots on goal were equal in the first two games in this series but Boston won big thanks to special teams play and, arguably, some shoddy goaltending on the part of the Hurricanes. Whether it is Mrazek or McElhinney between the pipes for Carolina you can fully expect a response from the home team in this one and a much better effort both in front of the netminder as well as from the goalie himself. We've seen this before with the Hurricanes and I don't see them being denied here. 10* CAROLINA |
|||||||
05-14-19 | Rockies v. Red Sox OVER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:10 ET - This total has dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and I am well aware that the weather will be chilly in Boston tonight and that Chris Sale is off a pair of strong starts. However, the fact is that both of these lineups are currently knocking the cover off the ball and also the Rockies Kyle Freeland has been struggling badly. As for Sale having back to back strong starts, one was against his former team (White Sox) and he reared back for a little extra juice in that one no doubt. The other one was against the miserable and downtrodden free-swinging Orioles. Give him credit for a pair of spectacular starts but lets not forget he has seemed a little "off" for much of the time early this season and now Sale faces a Rockies team that has scored an average of 8.2 runs per game so far in the month of May. That is all because of home games at Coors Field though, right? Nope! Actually Colorado has scored 11 runs in EACH of their two road games this month too. The fact is that the Rockies are a very confident team at the plate right now and, speaking of that, so too is Boston! The Red Sox enter this game having scored an average of 7.8 runs per game in the month of May! You can see why I like this over at 8 runs considering EACH team is averaging 8 runs per game this month! Also, Freeland enters this start with an 8.47 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Red Sox .267 batting average at home is one of the best in the majors. The Rockies .470 slugging percentage against lefties is one of the best in the majors! The over is 8-3 this month in Boston's games and 9-1 this month in Colorado's games. The over is also 12-5 this season when the Rockies are off a win. The over is 32-15 (including 5-2 this season) when the Red Sox are playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
|||||||
05-13-19 | Blues +118 v. Sharks | Top | 4-2 | Win | 118 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #7 Monday 10* Top Play St Louis Blues Money Line (+) @ San Jose Sharks @ 9:05 ET - With Blues rookie netminder Jordan Binnington off a rare awful game between the pipes in Saturday's game one, I fully expect a bounce back here. St Louis was annihilated 6 to 3 and the Blues (and Binnington for that matter) absolutely should respond huge in Monday's game two. Note that St Louis has won 19 of 26 when off a loss. Note also that the Blues won 19 of 29 this season after a game in which they allowed 4 or more goals. Of course St Louis will be desperate to knot the series at a game apiece by having a strong game here and the Sharks have not won a single time in this post-season when they enter a game with a lead in a playoff series! This situation has occurred 4 times thus far in the playoffs for San Jose and they have lost all 4 times. I am forecasting that streak going to 0-5 for the Sharks tonight as the Blues bounce back after an embarrassing gone one loss. 10* ST LOUIS |
|||||||
05-13-19 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Monday 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - The weather will be chilly this evening in Chicago but we've got a low total to work with here and plenty of reason to count on this one going over the total. The Indians Shane Bieber just faced the White Sox on Wednesday. Though he held them to 3 earned runs Bieber did allow 8 hits in 6 and 1/3 innings. Now Chicago gets a quick second look at him plus the rematch is at Guaranteed Rate Field. As for the lineup of the Tribe, they're also looking forward to a rematch here. The Indians just faced Reynaldo Lopez Wednesday and they were held to 3 earned runs but got to him for 9 hits in 6 innings. The point being that both these pitchers were hit quite hard in their match-up last week but managed to escape major damage. I feel they won't be so fortunate here. Cleveland has averaged 10 hits per game their last 5 games and they scored 5 runs in 3 of those games. The White Sox are off a 3-game set at Toronto that saw them average 5 runs per game. We just need each team to get to 4 runs here and then the game is guaranteed of no less than a 5-4 final. The fact is that with these lineups having just faced these pitchers I expect plenty of runs early and often in this one. Lopez is winless with 7.11 ERA in his 4 career starts against the Indians. Also, Cleveland's Monday games are a perfect 3-0 to the over this season. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
|||||||
05-12-19 | 76ers +6 v. Raptors | Top | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7 ET - When the 76ers come to play and are aggressive, they have proven they can beat the Raptors and this is true even in Toronto as they won Game 2 here. After taking a 2-1 lead in the series, the Sixers dealt with an ailing Joel Embiid and some passive play and dropped two straight games. Facing elimination in Game 6 they didn't just "hang on for dear life" to even the series up at 3, Philadelphia absolutely dominated the Raptors. The game wasn't nearly as close as the final score would indicate. Once again the Sixers are afforded two days of rest heading into this game and that is a huge edge for them considering Embiid, more than any other player for either team in this series, benefits from the extra rest. He had a +/- of +40 in Game 6 despite scoring only 17 points. The point is that shows you how much he contributes on both ends of the floor. He had a couple of big blocks of Kawhi Leonard that later had Leonard dishing the ball instead of driving to the hoop. The big fella is going to continue to dominate inside in Game 7 and we also saw a lot more attacking of the rim from Ben Simmons and, of course, Jimmy "Buckets" had a huge game as he continues to show leadership qualities that most were not expecting from Butler. This 76ers team has more star power than the Raptors and the Sixers are coming together as a team at the perfect time. They carry momentum right from Game 6 into Game 7 and note that in the last 5 games Philly has only been blown out once. The Sixers have won 3 of the 5 and only 1 loss came by more than 5 points. I fully expect the outright upset here but am grabbing the points. If the Sixers fall short it will likely be a heartbreaking loss by only a bucket or two. There is no way the 76ers are coming out soft or flat in this game. As a result, they are in this one all the way and have a great shot at the outright upset as the Raptors heavy reliance on Leonard burns them in the end. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
05-12-19 | Braves v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Game of the Week NL Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:10 ET - Both starting pitchers have question marks and both are likely to get pounded here. The Diamondbacks are starting Zack Godley. The Arizona right-hander had been removed from the starting rotation after struggling in the majority of his starts this season. Though Godley has shown improvement coming out of the bullpen recently, don't be surprised if the struggles in the starting role quickly resume as there is a difference between a starters mentality and coming out of the pen. Godley has a 6.26 ERA in his 4 career starts versus the Braves. This season Godley has a 7.58 ERA in his six starts. The Braves will be starting Max Fried in this one. He took a line drive off his throwing hand in his most recent start. Don't be surprised if that is in the back of his mind in this start and he doesn't throw as well as usual. Complicating matters for Fried is the fact that the Diamondbacks are crushing southpaws this season. Against left-handed pitching Arizona has a .293 batting average and .524 slugging percentage as they lead the majors in both categories against lefties. Also, both of these bullpens rank in the bottom third of the majors. This will be the Diamondbacks 15th game against a left-handed starter this season and, thus far, only TWO of those games have resulted in an under. That strong trend continues here and, just like yesterday's game, this one gets over the number! 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
|||||||
05-12-19 | Blazers +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #525 Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 3:30 ET - These teams are evenly matched which is why this series has gone 7 games. Of course if the Trail Blazers had Jusuf Nurkic on the floor the series would have already been over with Portland prevailing. However, even without Nurkic the Blazers have won 3 of the last 5 games including a game at Denver and I am backing Portland here on the road. I expect the outright upset but I am happy to grab the generous points. The Trail Blazers are 21-10 SU (and 20-11 ATS) when off a win by a double digit margin. The Nuggets are 3-5 ATS the last 8 times they were off a game where they allowed 113 points or more. Also, Denver is known for a strong home court edge but is actually only 7-10 ATS in their last 17 home games and that is a long-term run that dates back to late February! The Nuggets have been held to 39.8% or less from the field in 3 of their last 7 games and two of those were on their home floor. Also, Denver has shot only 27.5% from three point land in their last 4 home games in this post-season. In the last 5 games between the Blazers and Nuggets only 1 of the 5 was a Denver win by more than 4 points. I look for that trend to continue here as the Trail Blazers are in this one all the way and either win the game outright or lose by 5 or less points. Great underdog value here. 10* PORTLAND |
|||||||
05-12-19 | Hurricanes +140 v. Bruins | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #5 Carolina Hurricanes Money Line (+) @ Boston Bruins @ 3:05 ET - At first glance it looks like the Hurricanes got blown out in Game 1 but those whom watched the game know better. Carolina was up 2-1 going to the 3rd period. Then, early in that final period of the game the Canes made the mistake of becoming undisciplined and ending up in the penalty box. Very quickly a 2-1 lead turned into a 3-2 deficit. Then very late in the game two late goals (including an empty netter) turned the game into a 5-2 final. On Sunday, after an extra day of rest between games for the Hurricanes to become even more fired up about how they let that game get away from them, I look for the Canes to put it together for a full 60 minutes in Game 2! Carolina has won 39 of 57 games since December 31st. The Hurricanes are 11-3 the last 14 times they've entered a game off a loss. The Bruins, prior to winning Thursday's series opener, had actually lost 5 of their last 9 on home ice. The Hurricanes, prior to the Game 1 loss, had won 3 straight road games. That said, there is great value with the road dog in this match-up. Boston has lost 6 of 9 when leading in a playoff series and the Canes have won 3 of 4 when trailing in a playoff series. 10* CAROLINA |
|||||||
05-11-19 | Blues v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #3 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Jose Sharks vs St Louis Blues @ 8:05 ET - The Sharks have scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 12 home games. Not surprising given those numbers, San Jose is 10-2 to the over in their last dozen games as a host. St Louis has scored an average of 3.4 goals per game in their last 5 games on the road. The Blues allowed only 1 goal in their most recent road game but entered that contest having allowed an average of 3 goals per game in their 4 prior games away from home. Considering the above numbers it will be no surprise to see each team get to 3 goals in this one and that would mean we're looking at a 4-3 type game. That said, I like the value with this total not only available at 5.5 goals but also at plus money on the over. The Blues enter this contest with 3 days of rest between games. This is the 11th time that has occurred for St Louis this season and, thus far, only 3 of those have resulted in an under! The Sharks are 6-3 to the over this season in a home game with a posted total of 5.5 goals and I look for another on here. As long-time followers know, I like to go contrarian. That said, NONE of the last NINE meetings between these teams has resulted in an over. However, prior to that stretch was a playoff series between these teams and each of the last 3 post-season games have gone over the total. In any event the aforementioned 9 game streak without an under, in my strong opinion, is coming to an end here as the Blues continue their strong road play and the Sharks continue their strong home play! Each team is "in their element" here! 10* OVER the total in San Jose |
|||||||
05-11-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Miami Marlins @ 7:10 ET - On the surface this looks like it should be a pitchers duel. However, so did yesterday's game. On Friday Pablo Lopez (2.00 ERA L3 starts) and Zack Wheeler (2.70 ERA L3 starts) matched up. The result? 13 runs on 25 hits for the two teams and 19 of those hits did come against the two starters. That is part of the reason I am all over (literally!) the low total posted on Saturday's game. Yes, Jacob deGrom has a great reputation as well as some excellent recent numbers but this total is simply too low. Not only might the Mets get 7 runs by themselves but, keep in mind, deGrom has been roughed up in 2 of his 3 home starts this season. He dominate the Marlins earlier this season but Miami now gets another look and they are confident at the plate after pounding out double digits in hits yesterday. They have some hitters in their lineup whom have had some long-term success against deGrom. As for the Mets bats, they should have no trouble with Sandy Alcantara. He has been a very lucky pitcher as he has walked 13 batters in the 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts and yet he has a 4.70 ERA in these outings. Certainly it could be much worse and New York (happy to be back home after a lengthy road trip) pounded the ball yesterday and scored 11 runs. Alcantara had success against the Mets last season but he has not been the same pitcher this season. His recent starts have been very shaky even though he has faced the light-hitting Indians twice during this stretch. Alcantara in trouble here based on the way the Mets have been swinging the bats. Also, New York is 5-1 to the over in Saturday games this season and so too are the Marlins. Additionally, Miami has had just 2 unders in their 8 games this season that had a posted total of 7 or less runs. The Mets have had just 6 unders in their 19 night games this season. Take advantage of the low total here as these teams are also both near the bottom of the majors for bullpen ERA as well. 10* OVER the total in New York Mets |
|||||||
05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -7 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #520 Friday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - There have been 8 meetings in calendar year 2019. Three in the regular season and now 5 in this playoff series. The result? ALL 8 were decided by 6 points or less. That said, this line being at 7 or 7.5 in favor of the Rockets must be a colossal mistake, right? In typical contrarian fashion I will lay the big points here. Kevin Durant is out for this game and I smell a blowout. Why? Because that means more reliance on other key big scorers like Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry to step up. Of course the key to the style that Thompson and Curry play is knock down threes and that simply has not been happening at a normally productive clip for much of this series. It seems Curry's finger might indeed be an issue in his shooting touch. The two teams have combined to make just 31% of their threes in the last two games in this series. The fact this game is at Houston also lessens the likelihood of a strong shooting night for the Warriors. At the same time, the Rockets could absolutely go on huge runs in this game because the absence of Durant is certainly impacting to Golden State on both ends of the floor. The Warriors have averaged just 32.8% from three point land in their last 4 games at Houston and only 105 points per game. Certainly those are not typical Golden State numbers. As for the Rockets, they've averaged 112 points per game the last 4 times they've hosted the Warriors and that number should grow here with the Warriors sans Durant! Also note that Golden State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Rockets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Lay it and look for a double digit home blowout here. 10* HOUSTON |
|||||||
05-10-19 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:10 ET - Fenway Park is well known as a hitters park. When there are favorable weather conditions the advantage to the hitters can actually be quite greatly enhanced. That is certainly expected to be the case Friday evening as the temperatures will be in the 60s and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip. Couple that with two strong lineups and a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have the perfect scenario for a slugfest. I am well aware of the fact that Erik Swanson has had some good starts for the Mariners but the key is that those came against an Indians team that is struggling badly at the plate early this season. The Seattle right-hander excelled in both starts against the Tribe but note that he got clobbered for 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work in his other two starts this season. Now Swanson faces a Red Sox team that has won 8 of its last 10 games. Also, prior to a tight 2-1 win Wednesday, Boston had scored an average of 7 runs per game in their previous 9 games during this hot streak. As for the Mariners sticks, they have excelled against lefties this season (except for against JA Happ yesterday). Seattle should resume hitting southpaws well here as Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has a situation similar to Swanson's. The Red Sox left-hander has had strong starts against sub-par teams like the Orioles, White Sox, and Tigers. However, in the other 4 starts for Rodriguez this season he has allowed 18 earned runs in 18 innings! Note that the over is 9-1 this season in Mariners games against left-handed starters. Also, the over is 31-15 (including 4-2 this season) when the Red Sox are playing after a day off. Nice situation here for a slugfest! 10* OVER the total in Boston |
|||||||
05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 101 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #514 Thursday NBA 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - In the minds of most, this series is over. That is why a line that first opened up around a pick'em is now as high as -2.5 on Raptors. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the "left for dead" 76'ers here. They are on their home floor. They just lost back to back games and were held below 100 points in each contest. If you don't think the Sixers are going to give one helluva effort in this game than you don't know much about the emotion and pride of professional players especially when those players are on their home floor. So what happens when Philly, unlike Game 5, gives a strong effort? The Sixers held the Raptors below 100 points in both Games 2 and 3 of this series. The 76ers won that Game 3 right here in Philly by a margin of 21 points. Remember they were heavily doubted after losing Game 1 of the series versus Brooklyn. The Sixers responded by winning 4 straight games. They were again doubted after losing Game 1 of this series at Toronto. They responded by winning back to back games including their lone home win in this series coming in dominating fashion. Joel Embiid's health (upper respiratory infection) was at his worst in Game 5. He'll be a different player in Game 6. The 76'ers are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times they've entered a game off 2 or more consecutive non-covers. Philly is 9-1 ATS this season when off a game in which they failed to score 100 points. You read that right, they were a PERFECT 9-0 ATS off a game in which they were held under the century mark PRIOR to that loss in Toronto on Tuesday. I don't see lightning striking twice. The Sixers improve to 10-1 ATS in that situation with a resounding win tonight that will feature intensity, emotion, and a crazy atmosphere in Philly. Give me the home dog! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
05-09-19 | Hurricanes v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 127 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Game #1 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes @ 8:05 ET - The Hurricanes have been off for a week and could be a little rusty here. Of course that can lead to mishandled pucks and create odd man rushes and great scoring opportunities as a result. I think we're going to see a bit of a wide open Game 1 because of that factor as well as the fact that the Bruins are off a hard-fought series win over the Blue Jackets. The Bruins Tuukka Rask was the key in that series win over Columbus as he got hot and played great but, keep in mind, Boston did allow an average of 38 shots on goal per game over the last 5 games of that series. That generally does not equate to low-scoring games and, of course, the Hurricanes have plenty of scoring firepower. While the Bruins have averaged 3.7 goals per game in their last 3 games, the Canes have scored 4 or more goals in 4 of their last 6 post-season games. Also, due to injury to Mrazek, McElhinney came in and started the final two games of the series win over the Islanders. Now Carolina has a bit of a goalie conundrum coming into this series and that is certainly not a good thing for a goaltenders mindset. The fact this over 5.5 is available at big plus money is a huge value here too as I see each team getting to 3 goals in a Game 1 that sees a lot of quality scoring chances for the reasons noted above. In terms of technical support, the Bruins are off a shutout win and the over is a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times they have entered a game off a victory in which they shut out their opponent. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
|||||||
05-09-19 | Reds v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Cincinnati Reds @ 3:35 ET - Yesterday's game went 13 innings which used up bullpen for each team. That means if either starter gets into trouble here - and both certainly could - there might be some tired arms called upon in this one. Even though the total has moved to a 9 in a lot of spots, the over is still offering great value here as day games in Oakland are much more hitter-friendly than night games. At night, Oakland Coliseum is known as a park that is friendly to pitchers. However, in day games - and particularly with the wind blowing out toward center - the ballpark is definitely a little more hitter friendly. That explains part of the reason why the over is 74-52 (including 8-3 this season) in Athletics day games. Also, the over is 15-9 in A's games against right-handed starters this season and also the over is 3-1 in Oakland's inter-league games. The over is 5-1 in the Reds last 6 games and Cincinnati has scored an average of 7 runs per game during this stretch. Cincy is starting Tanner Roark in this one and he gave up 4 earned runs in his most recent road start this season and also allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent start at Oakland. As for A's starter Chris Bassitt, he has good numbers early this season but he has only made 3 starts and the last two were against the Blue Jays and Pirates. Note that Toronto and Pittsburgh are two of the lowest scoring teams in the majors this season. That said, Bassitt is now facing a Reds team that has been producing runs as well as any team in the majors over the past 7 days. Per the above, you can see why both lineups should have big days at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
|||||||
05-08-19 | Rockets +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Wednesday NBA 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - This line opened up at a 5.5 and has moved to as high as a 6.5 as of early morning on game day. I am grabbing the points here. While it is true that the home team has won all 4 games, it is also true that the Rockets have momentum on their side after winning each of the past two games. The Warriors had a chance to go in for the kill and certainly would have been in great position to now finish Houston off in this game if they had just taken one of the two in Texas. However, after losing both of those games Golden State now faces a Rockets team that has renewed confidence and hope in this series. That is the combination that makes for a dangerous dog and I especially like dogs in spots like this when they're offered at a line of a half dozen points or more. Note that Houston is 6-2 ATS this season when they enter a game on exactly a 2-game ATS winning streak. In terms of the Rockets entering a game on an ATS winning streak of 2 or more games, they are 13-6 ATS the last 19 times they've been in that situation this season. The point is that when Houston gets on a roll for their backers it has paid to jump on board and I expect the Rockets to stay hot here. Keep in mind, these teams have now played 7 games in calendar year 2019 and ALL SEVEN have had a margin of victory of 6 points or less! The Warriors enter this game on a 4-8 ATS run and are simply not as dominant as they've been in past post-seasons. Look for another very close game that could go either way. I feel this one could be the upset many have been waiting for in this series but I am grabbing the valuable points as added insurance! 10* HOUSTON |
|||||||
05-08-19 | Avalanche +123 v. Sharks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Game #27 Wednesday 10* Top Play Colorado Avalanche Money Line (+) @ San Jose Sharks @ 9:05 ET - San Jose has scored only 4 non-power plays goals in the last 3 games of this series! Colorado has scored 7 non-power play goals in the most recent 3 games in this series. One could certainly make a valid argument that the Avalanche are taking better advantage of scoring opportunities in 5 on 5 hockey and that difference is averaging a goal per game since this series passed the midway point. That said, in what is likely to be a tight, hard-fought Game 7 give me the underdog that also is averaging a goal per game more than their opponent in 5 on 5 action the last 3 games. The Avalanche were left for dead when down 2-1 in this series after a home loss in Game 3 but Colorado has battled back and shown their resilience. Keep in mind, the Sharks were a bigger favorite in Games 2 and 5 on home ice that what they are in Game 7. Why do you think that is? Do you think the odds makers made a mistake? Of course not. Anything can happen in a game once they drop the puck of course BUT the fact is the odds makers are expecting the same thing sharp bettors are in this match-up. That is...an Avalanche upset is quite probable hence the lower money line (opened as low as -123 in big books) on this game. Now this line is a high as a -145 in some spots and I love the value with the road dog as the Avs have tilted the ice in their favor in recent games. Also, the back to back 7 game series battles the Sharks are dealing with (remember the crazy Game 7 versus Vegas?) is going to ultimately prove to be too much for San Jose as they get worn down here. Keep in mind, the Avalanche dispatched of the Flames in 5 games in the opening round and had a full week off between the first round and second round. 10* COLORADO |
|||||||
05-08-19 | Twins v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 101 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:05 ET - Off back to back shutouts and having scored a TOTAL of only TWO runs in their last THREE games, Toronto's bats might look dead in the water at this point. The fact is the Blue Jays lineup is weaker this season than in past seasons. However, the above factors are part of what is driving the solid line value here as this one is a positive match-up for the Jays sticks. The Twins are starting Kyle Gibson. Not only did the Minnesota right-hander allowed 4 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings versus the Blue Jays last month, he has a 7.56 ERA in three career starts at Rogers Centre in Toronto. The right-hander also has a 5.31 ERA in his road starts this season and the over is 3-1 in those 4 outings away from home. Gibson will be opposed by Trent Thornton in this one. He is 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA in his 4 home starts this season and only one of the four resulted in an under. Also, Thornton faced Minnesota last month and the Twins got to him for 4 earned runs in 4 and 2/3 innings of work. In taking the first two games of this 3-game set, the Twins are now a red hot 9-3 their last 12 games. Minnesota has scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 9 victories. The Blue Jays entered this series having gone 3-0 in their 3 most recent home games and scoring an average of 5.3 runs per game in the process. After facing tough starting pitching and struggling badly in the first two games of this series, this is the right match-up for the Blue Jays lineup to get back on track. As a result, the over improves to 6-3 in Gibson's career starts against the Jays. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
|||||||
05-07-19 | Stars +123 v. Blues | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Game #23 Tuesday 10* Top Play Dallas Stars Money Line (+) @ St Louis Blues @ 8:05 ET - Home ice hasn't meant much at all in this series and that was also the case in the first round series for the Blues when they eliminated the Jets. The fact is that with the St Louis win at Dallas Sunday, the road team is now 9-3 in the Blues 12 playoff games. So simply based on current trending you have a St Louis team laying a -140 price even though the home team has lost 75% of the time in Blues games this post-season. Simply on value alone one could not win an argument that the Stars are not the correct choice in this game from a betting standpoint. There is even more support too however. I like the fact that we have Ben Bishop on our side over Jordan Binnington of the Blues. No disrespect to Binnington but this will be his first Game 7 at the NHL level. His counterpart, Bishop, was originally drafted by the Blues in 2005. Note that in 2005 Binnington was 11 years old. The fact is that Bishop has a massive experience edge compared to the Blues rookie netminder. Bishop is 28-18 with a superb .927 save percentage in his 48 NHL playoff games and took the Lightning to the Stanley Cup Finals four years ago. In terms of trending here, the Stars are 9-3 in their last 12 road games with a posted total of 5 goals or less. The Blues are 1-5 the last 6 times they were off a game in which they allowed 1 goal or less. 10* DALLAS |
|||||||
05-07-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-125 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Tuesday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are still not getting any respect from the betting markets. Certainly give credit to the Raptors for winning Game 4 at Philly but also note that Joel Embiid was sick and had a tough time in that game. Even with that (and despite the fact Kawhi Leonard scored 39 points, the Sixers still almost won that game. Keep in mind the rest of the Raptors combined for only 62 points on ugly 22 of 56 shooting from the field (including just 5 of 24 from three point land). News flash everyone: Toronto is not as good as everyone thinks they are. They rely so heavily on Kawhi as you have seen! Note that Leonard is averaging 38 points per game in this series and yet it is still tied 2-2. You can bet (literally) that Philadelphia is going to do a much better job on Leonard in Game 5. Also note that the 76ers have outrebounded their opponent in 12 straight games! Not surprisingly the Sixers are 8-4 SU and ATS during this stretch but they continue to get no respect from the betting markets. I feel strongly that Philly has a great shot at winning this game outright. I am grabbing the generous points being offered but truly Embiid is due for a monster game and everyone seems to underestimate other Sixers players like Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons, JJ Redick. These guys will all be in "attack mode" in Game 5 after losing on their home floor in Game 4. Note that Philly is 39-20 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. The Raptors are 3-9 ATS in their last dozen second round playoff games. Give me the hungry road dog playing with a chip on their shoulders in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
05-07-19 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners @ 6:35 ET - With yesterday's game going over the total early, the over is now 11-4 in the Yankees last 15 games. As for the Mariners, they have been trending over all season long as they are 26-8-3 to the over on the year. Seattle is 13-3-1 to the over in road games and also 15-5-3 to the over in night games. The Mariners have a slugging percentage of .531 in road games this season and that ranks them #1 in the majors. The Yankees are hitting .266 against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them #2 in the American League. New York will face southpaw Marco Gonzales in this one. Gonzales faced the Yankees once last season and it was here in the Bronx and he gave up 3 homers in an ugly outing that saw him allow 6 earned runs in 6 and 1/3 innings of work. With mild weather in the forecast in New York tonight the ball should be carrying well again at Yankee Stadium. Starting for the home side in this one is Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees right-hander has good numbers against the Mariners in his career but he has struggled in 3 of his last 4 starts. He just doesn't seem quite right and the way Seattle has swung the bats this season they are a different team compared to the one he faced last season. Tanaka has given up 5 homers in his last 4 starts and these haven't been particularly long outings either. Another plus for the over here is that the Mariners bullpen ERA ranks among the worst in the majors this season. Though this total has moved from an opener of 8.5 to a 9 there is still plenty of value here in what could very well turn into a slugfest that goes over the total early just like yesterday's game did. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
|||||||
05-06-19 | Phillies +115 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ St Louis Cardinals @ 8:05 ET - Scheduling edge to the Phillies here as they played early yesterday afternoon while the Cardinals had a night game. This is also a classic case of hot versus not as Philadelphia has won 6 of its last 8 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 8 games. As for the Cards, they have now lost 4 straight games. Though they did end up scoring 5 runs yesterday most of that came very late after the game was already decided as St Louis got drilled and allowed 13 runs in yesterday's defeat. The point is that the Cardinals have been struggling at the plate as they entered yesterday's game having scoring an average of just 2 runs per game in their 3 prior games. The Phillies start Velasquez here and the right-hander is undefeated with a 1.62 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. He also threw 6 and 1/3 shutout innings in his lone start at Busch Stadium last season. Velasquez has allowed only 9 hits in his last 12 and 2/3 innings against St Louis. The Cardinals will have Mikolas on the mound in this one and he allowed 3 homers in 5 innings in his most recent home start. The St Louis right-hander also got rocked for 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone start against the Phillies last season. Also that was a Phils team without Bryce Harper and the slugger is 4 for 7 with a homer in his career against Mikolas. While some will be looking for a Cardinals bounce back here, the scheduling situation and pitching match-up favors the Phillies and I am happy to grab the underdog value. Also, the Cards are 7-11 the last 18 times they were off a game in which they allowed 10 or more runs. The Phils are 11-6 this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
05-06-19 | Bruins +110 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 3-0 | Win | 110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Game #13 Monday 10* Top Play Boston Bruins Money Line (+) @ Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:05 ET - The Blue Jackets were a great story this post-season with their shocking sweep of the Lightning in round one. Also, I have always been a fan of Columbus coach John Tortorella and his ways though some may find him abrasive. To me his more of an old-school coach and there is not enough of the old-school mentality left in professional sports and we need it! With all that said however, the Bruins are the better team in this series with more post-season experience and their starting to impose their will in this series. As a result, the Jackets season ends tonight. Boston has now scored 4 goals in back to back games to rally back from a 2-1 deficit and take a 3-2 series lead. To put that in proper perspective, the Blue Jackets haven't scored 4 goals a single time in this series. Also, all the pressure is on Columbus here. They need to win to extend the series while the Bruins come in loose and relaxed as they have won two straight games and still have Game 7 in their back-pockets should it be needed. From the standpoint of the mentality of each team approaching this game, the Bruins hold a huge edge. Also, Boston finally has their top line and big guns going again in this series and that has their confidence level extremely high which, in turn, makes the Bruins very dangerous. Since Game 6 is at Columbus we also get line value here because that makes Boston a dog in this one and that is why I am elevating this play to my highest rating. The Bruins have won 25 of 36 this season when off a game in which they scored 4 or more goals. The Blue Jackets have lost 8 of 12 in franchise history when trailing in a playoff series and Columbus goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is now officially "rattled" after what has transpired the past two games. 10* BOSTON |
|||||||
05-06-19 | Bucks +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - April 28 of last year is a day the Bucks haven't forgotten. It was the day their season ended as Boston finished them off in Game 7 of their first round playoff series. Even though today's game isn't an elimination game it is a chance, in a sense, for Milwaukee to return the favor so to speak. Now up 2-1 in this series, the Bucks can go in for the kill here because a 3-1 series lead with Game 5 in Milwaukee (and Game 7 if necessary) is likely too much for the Celtics to overcome. The Bucks will not let up here, not after they were beaten by double digits in that Game 7 loss here last spring. The home team took all 7 meetings in that series but that was then and this is now. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams have seen the road team get the cash. Also, Milwaukee has now won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. They are the better team this season and their 27-14 regular season road mark was tied with the defending champion Warriors for the top road record in the league. The Game 1 loss in this series for the Bucks seemed to be the wake-up call they needed. They have responded since then and that is their only loss of the post-season. Also, their 6 wins have come by an average margin of 20.5 points per victory! There is nothing "average" about those numbers! Milwaukee has dominated. As for the Celtics, their 4 wins in their sweep of the Pacers came by an average margin of 7.5 points and truly Indiana was in every single one of those games with a chance to win every single game! Boston is 12-22 ATS after a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Bucks are 19-6 ATS this season after allowing 115 points or more and also 13-6 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games while the Celtics are 6-9 ATS with the same rest factor. Once again, Boston will not be able to stop Giannis Antetokounmpo in this one and he keys another road win. 10* MILWAUKEE |
|||||||
05-05-19 | Nuggets +3 v. Blazers | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #593 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 7:05 ET - 9 straight games, including the quadruple OT game Friday, between the Nuggets and Blazers have been decided by single digits. That said, I certainly feel there is value with having the points in this match-up even though the points being offered are rather small. The fact is that having the points means that, in essence, you covered Friday's game 5 times as you covered at the end of regulation and at the end of each of the 3 OT periods before it finally went final after the 4th OT. The key point being that there is just not a lot that separates these two teams and that is also why the road team has now covered 5 of the last 7 meetings. I do feel that the Jusuf Nurkic injury will continue to catch up with the Trail Blazers the further they go into this post-season. Denver has now won the rebounding battle in back-to-back games and truly the Nuggets did themselves in with turnovers in Game 3. I fully expect a bounce back here as Denver is 4-1 SU and ATS the last 5 times they've had 13 or more turnovers in a game. The Nuggets also are 7-1 ATS in second round playoff games. Portland is 1-3 ATS the last 4 times they've forced 14 or more turnovers in a game. The Blazers won the turnover battle by 7 in Game 3 and certainly that was a key factor in the 3 point win. Portland is 5-11 ATS in playoff games including 2-4 in their last 6. I fully expect the Nuggets to get the outright win here and even this series up but I am grabbing the points as added insurance. Having the points on our side is also what elevates this one to top play rating. 10* DENVER |
|||||||
05-05-19 | Blues +111 v. Stars | Top | 4-1 | Win | 111 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Game #5 Sunday 10* St Louis Blues Money Line (+) @ Dallas Stars @ 3:05 ET - The recipe for success in the Blues post-season from a wagering standpoint is simply to play the road team in their games. With the Stars upset win at St Louis in Game 5 of this series, the road team has now won 8 of the Blues 11 post-season games. In terms of Dallas matched up with St Louis this season, the road team has won 6 of the 9 games. Considering those factors as well as the pressure on the Stars to close this series out on home ice, I like the road dog Blues in this one. Sometimes the pressure of closing a team out can be hard on a team and this is particularly true in a situation like this where a hockey club has Game 6 on home ice with a chance to end it. Dallas knows if they fall short they then have to go on the road for Game 7 and that is always a tough situation for a road team to win. That said, it may surprise you to hear this but the Stars are likely to be the team squeezing the sticks a little too tight in this one! They feel the pressure of needing to close this out in Game 6 and avoid a Game 7 on the road. For the Blues, they actually feel good about their series chances, despite the Game 5 loss, as they know they just have to win this afternoon and they get a chance to host a Game 7 which is always a nice proposition. Also, St Louis is off back to back losses in this series. The Blues are an incredible 12-3 this season when they enter game off 2 or more consecutive losses. The Stars are actually 2-5 the last 7 times they entered a game off 2 or more consecutive victories. The Blues have won 18 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. The Stars have lost 17 of their last 22 Sunday games! 10* ST LOUIS |
|||||||
05-05-19 | Blue Jays v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 3:05 ET - The Blue Jays lineup is not overly impressive but I expect they put up 5 runs yesterday and are fully capable of getting at least that again here. At the same time, the Rangers should match them run for run and that is why I like the over here despite the fact a big total is posted on this game. The fact is that the Rangers are averaging 6 runs per game at home this season. Also Texas has averaged 7.6 runs per game in their last 6 games. The Rangers Drew Smyly has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts even though he only averaged 4 innings per start! Also, the Texas southpaw is returning from a stint on the DL as he was already dealing with arm fatigue and tightness early this season. Smyly's pitch count is likely to be limited and that will expose a Rangers bullpen that has ranked among the worst in the majors this season. As for Toronto starter Clay Buchholz, he has a 6.13 ERA in his last three starts and also note that he has a 5.58 ERA in road starts this season. It has been a few seasons since he has pitched at Arlington but that certainly has not been a good venue for him! Buchholz allowed 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts in Arlington. Both these pitchers are homer-prone and it will be hitter-friendly conditions on a warm afternoon in Texas and in a hitter-friendly park. The ball should be jumping off the bats here. The over is 41-23 when the Blue Jays are a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. Also, Toronto is 11-6 to the over in games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. The over is a long-term 43-25 when Texas is at home with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. Also, the over is 7-2 in Rangers day games this season. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
|||||||
05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -3.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #590 Saturday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:35 ET - Down 0-2 in the series, and with extra time to think about it due to the 3 days off between games, the Rockets will have a fire lit under them for this game. Houston allowed 115 points in Tuesday's loss. Prior to that the Rockets had allowed an average of just 99 points per game in their 6 prior games. As for the Warriors, they had allowed an average of 113 points per game and gone 4-7 ATS in their 11 games prior to the win and cover in Game 2 of this series. Golden State is 5-9 ATS in Saturday games this season. Also, the Warriors are 7-11 SU the last 18 times they've been an underdog. That said, should a SU loss for Golden State equate to an ATS win for the Rockets? Yes. Each of the Warriors last 3 losses have come by 4 or more points and the average margin of defeat was 9 points. As for Houston, 9 of their last 10 wins have come by 7 or more points and 8 of those 9 victories came by a double digit margin! The Rockets had a non-covering win (but by 7 points!) in their most recent home game and that ended an ATS run of 8-0 in their last 8 home games! Look for another big home win here as the Rockets are 15-1 SU in their last 16 home games and the lone loss in that stretch was to the Warriors. In other words it is payback time and revenge time here as the Rockets get right back into the series Saturday. 10* HOUSTON |
|||||||
05-04-19 | Blue Jackets v. Bruins -135 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
NBC Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Game #2 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Bruins Money Line (-) vs Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:15 ET - The Bruins are off a 4-1 win at Columbus. Not only has this swung momentum fully in favor of Boston as they head back to home ice with this series tied at 2 games apiece, note also that the only Blue Jackets goal that scored should not have even counted. Tuukka Rask has been dominant to say the least. In fact, the Bruins have now gone 7 straight games without allowing more than 2 goals in regulation! Conversely, Columbus has now allowed 3 or more goals in 3 of its last 5 games. Look for that, plus home ice, to combine to be a big difference maker in this critical Game 5. Boston got their top guys going in Game 4 and the shuffling of line combinations appears to have settled back into the Bruins going strong with their big guns now back on track in this series. That is bad news for a Blue Jackets team that has struggled to solve Rask in this series. With that said, though I normally play a lot of underdogs this is one spot where a favorite priced very fair (130 to 140 range) is offering plenty of line value to justify the investment. Boston has won 14 of 20 home games with a posted total of 5.5 goals this season. The Bruins have won 24 of 35 games this season when they are off a game in which they scored 4 or more goals. The Blue Jackets are an all-time 1-3 when a series is tied up. 10* BOSTON |
|||||||
05-04-19 | Nationals v. Phillies -118 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #956 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies won again yesterday on their home field and their number of home victories (13) is tops in the majors. The Nationals now have a losing record both at home and on the road after dropping yesterday's game. Washington still has some solid sticks in their lineup but injury issues have taken some of the strength out of this lineup. Jake Arrieta is off a start where he had a huge lead through 5 innings and had allowed only 1 earned run at that point. The fact he ended up allowing much more in that game only adds value to this spot here because it was a bit of a "fluke" and could have ended up being another quality start for Arrieta. He has been very strong overall early this season and that was the case last season as well. The fact is that he appears to be on top of his game again and has great movement and location with his pitches early this season. The Nationals don't have many hitters at all that have done much against Arrieta while the Phillies have a number of hitters that have fared well against Patrick Corbin. The left-hander has pitched well early this season but the Phillies are one of the top scoring teams in the majors when at home. Also, the Nationals bullpen ranks dead last in the national league. Washington is 4-12 in night games this season. The Phillies are 33-17 long-term and 9-3 this season when they enter a game as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. Though this line has dipped a little below that range early Saturday I expect it to bolt right back upwards into that range. In other words, play this one early! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
05-04-19 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:05 ET - Both the Twins Jake Odorizzi and the Yankees JA Happ are off strong starts. However, there is much more than meets the eye as the surface here. Happ is winless with an 8.16 ERA in his three home starts this season. Odorizzi is 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his road starts this season. The Yankees are 4-2 to the over in Happ's starts this season while the Twins are 3-0 to the over in Odorizzi's road starts this season. The over is 10-4-1 to the over in Minnesota's road games this season after yesterday's game snuck over the total late. Part of the key was the bullpen work and these teams rank only in the middle of the pack for bullpen ERA on the season. Considering that factor as well as the home/road dichotomy for the starting pitchers in this one, you can see why I am going with the over here. The over is 11-6 this season in Yankees games with posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and I like the fact we've got good value here with this total at an 8.5 at Yankee Stadium. It will be mild weather in the Bronx and the Twins .481 slugging percentage versus left-handed pitchers ranks them 3rd in the American League. Minnesota is averaging 6.4 runs per game on the road this season but their bullpen ERA is a 5.56 away from home. The Yankees, in home games, are averaging 5.4 runs per game this season. This one flies over as both starting pitchers struggle more than the markets are expecting. Their recent starts have been good but the home/road issues are no fluke so far this season. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
|||||||
05-03-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #585 Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The general betting strategy employed by most will lead them to back the Celtics here since they are back at home and off an ugly Game 2 loss. As long-time followers know, I am generally contrarian to public perception. That said, it comes as no surprise that I love the Bucks in this spot. Milwaukee made adjustments after Game 1 and simply took over and imposed their will in Game 2. The Bucks are the better team this season. While I certainly expect the well-coach Celtics to now counter with some adjustments of their own here at home in Game 3, the fact is that Milwaukee is the more talented team in this match-up. The concern for the Celtics is that Giannis Antetokounmpo made only 7 field goals in Game 2 and Boston still lost the game by more than 20 points! The Bucks start did have 29 points in the game but the fact his teammates poured in 94 points is a good sign of things to come in this series for Milwaukee. I know the Pacers team the Celtics team faced in round one was tougher than the Pistons team the Bucks faced in round one. However, I still can't get over the fact that Milwaukee absolutely crushed Detroit throughout that series and it was never in doubt while Boston actually could have lost each of their 4 games with Indiana. Yes the Celtics games with the Pacers were "that close" even though it ended up being a sweep. The Bucks went 7-3 ATS as an underdog this season. Boston is 10-15 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. No bounce back here for the Celtics. 10* MILWAUKEE |
|||||||
05-03-19 | Islanders +120 v. Hurricanes | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Game #79 Friday 10* Top Play New York Islanders Money Line (+) @ Carolina Hurricanes @ 7:05 ET - The mindset of the Islanders here is not what you might expect. Certainly they have not thrown in the towel. They know with a win tonight they remain alive in this series and that 2 of the final 3 games (if necessary) would be in New York. Also, although the final score looks ugly in Game 3, that was simply because of 2 late empty net goals. The game was tied 2-2 going to the third period and very easily could have ended up a 3-2 final. The fact is that all 3 games in this series thus far have been tight and the Islanders just haven't been able to get a bounce to go their way. Look for that to change tonight. I just don't see the Isles being denied here as head coach Barry Trotz (led Capitals to Stanley Cup Championship in June) rallies his troops here for this elimination game. The Hurricanes are 0 for 5 on the power play in the last two games while the Islanders are 2 for 5. The point is that the Canes certainly deserve a lot of credit for where this series stands but certain stats do you tell you that it easily could have played out much differently. That said, there is no significant disparity between these teams and I like the healthy underdog price here with the Islanders in a must win game. The Islanders are 14-9 this season after allowing 4 or more goals. The Hurricanes are 11-17 when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. 10* NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
|||||||
05-03-19 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - Jerad Eickhoff is off a great start at home and also pitched well in his other appearance at home this season. However, though his most recent outing was impressive he faced a very bad Marlins lineup. Note that in his prior start Eickhoff allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits and 4 walks in 6 innings of work. He does have good stuff and gets a lot of strikeouts but now he faces a Nationals team that has scored 25 runs in their last two games at Citizens Bank Park. Of course I am aware of the Nationals being without Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon right now (and the fact that Juan Soto may not start again tonight) but there is still plenty of pop in this lineup. Also, Washington is simply loaded with confidence when facing the Phillies. They have hit very well in this park plus have fared well against Philadelphia's bullpen. The flip side of this equation is that Jeremy Hellickson was successful in his lone start against the Phillies this season. However, the Nationals right-hander will likely get hit harder as Philadelphia's lineup now gets a second look at him in a span of about 3 weeks. The over is 4-1 in the 5 meetings between these teams this season and, other than struggling against Hellickson, the Phils lineup averaged 6.5 runs per game in the other 4 games. As far as the bullpens here, the Nationals 5.87 ERA ranks them dead last in the NL. The Nats bullpen .269 BAA ranks them dead last in NL too. Who is 2nd to last in that category? The Phillies bullpen with a .265 BAA. The point is we should see runs early, often, and throughout this game. The over is 9-5 in Washington's night games this season as well as 9-5 in Nationals divisional games this year. The Phillies over is 4-1 this season when playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
|||||||
05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #582 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers simply continue to get no respect from the betting markets. After losing to the Nets in Game 1 of their first round series with Brooklyn many were saying the Sixers wouldn't even survive Round One. Of course Philly proceeded to win 4 straight over the Nets. Now, of course, the Raptors are a much better team than the Nets and I am NOT saying the same thing here (that Philly will win 4 straight). But here is what I am saying, Game 3 is a fantastic situation for the Sixers. After getting embarrassed in Game 1 of this series they responded with a huge Game 2 effort and got a key road win at Toronto. Now everyone expects the Raptors to bounce right back and win Game 3 as Philly opened up as a 1.5 point favorite but now is a 1.5 point dog. Lets not forget that one of the biggest concerns for the Sixers is the health of Joel Embiid. That said, the extra rest that has been afforded between Games 2 and 3 of this series is a huge edge for Philadelphia. Additionally, the home crowd will be amped up for what is just the 2nd home game for the 76ers since mid-April. This will be an incredible atmosphere in Philly and they won their last two home games by 22 points apiece. The Raptors get a lot of hype and love due to their finish to the regular season but this still a Toronto team that is only 12-9 SU (and 9-12 ATS) in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record and they have a first year head coach. The Sixers are 16-11 SU against teams with winning record and 33-11 SU in home games this season. Everyone continues to doubt this 76ers team and we'll take advantage with the great line value considering this favorable situation. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
05-02-19 | Bruins +108 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 4-1 | Win | 108 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Game #75 Thursday 10* Top Play Boston Bruins Money Line (+) @ Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:35 ET - The Bruins lost Game Three by a 2-1 count but all hope is certainly not lost. Boston's top line hasn't gotten going yet in this series and certainly some credit is owed to the Blue Jackets for that. However, Boston knows that with a win tonight they even the series up plus again have the home ice advantage with 2 of the last 3 games (if necessary) being played at Boston. That said, I see great value here with the underdog Bruins as Boston has gone 28-14 in recent seasons (including 10-2 this season) when off a game in which they were held to 1 goal or less! The Blue Jackets have been playing great and no one can argue with that considering they have won 8 of their last 9 games. However, Columbus has been outshot in 6 of their last 8 games. The Bruins had won 3 straight games against Columbus (including Game 1 of this series) prior to losing two straight games and now being down 2-1 in this series. I am grabbing the desperate and hungry underdog Bruins and I expect them to have their breakout game here and turn this into a very interesting series as it gets evened up at 2 games apiece. 10* BOSTON |
|||||||
05-02-19 | Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - The odds makers are very sharp. When I first looked at the money line on this game I though to myself, "how can Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals only be in the -150 range"? Of course that was at first glance. Now, after analyzing it further it makes perfect sense. Now, that said, I still don't trust Dakota Hudson so I don't trust the underdog Cardinals either in this spot. But the direction I got pointed in was the over and I feel this is a very strong value play. The key to why this game was priced this way is because even though Strasburg appears to be back on track it has had more to do with whom he faced. His last two starts were against the Marlins and Padres. Note that prior to that he faced the Giants and struggled but the point is that those 3 teams are the 3 lowest scoring teams in the National League! On Thursday afternoon Strasburg now faces the highest scoring team in the National League! The over is 3-0 in his home starts this season and he has a 4.74 ERA in those outings. As for the Cards Hudson, none of his last 3 starts have resulted in an under and he has compiled a 7.53 ERA in those outings. Other factors that will help us here include the Nationals bullpen (6.02 ERA) ranking as the worst in the National League and also the Washington weather (temperatures in the 80s and possible breeze blowing out to right). The over is 8-4 in Cardinals day games this season. The over is 7-0 in Nationals games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. As of early this morning there is still some 8.5 available on this one and, even those of you getting a 9 should not worry as I fully expect double digits in runs in this one! 10* OVER the total in Washington |
|||||||
05-01-19 | Blues v. Stars -119 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Game #74 Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Stars Money Line (-) vs St Louis Blues @ 9:35 ET - It is now or never for the Stars. Although this is not truly an elimination game in the literal sense, it absolutely feels like one for Dallas. The reason is because if they lose this game on home ice they would then be down 3-1 in the series and 2 of the final 3 games (if necessary) in the series would be played at St Louis. The point is that this is about as "must win" as it gets for Dallas. That said, I like the resiliency the Stars showed in Game 3 in constantly battling back all game long even though they ended up a goal short when all was said and done. Dallas had won 4 of their last 5 on home ice prior to the loss Monday. Look for the Stars to improve to 3-0 in this post-season when they are trailing in a playoff series. The Blues are 1-3 the last 4 times they have entered a game leading in a playoff series. Remember that Dallas was down 2-1 to the Predators in the first round before rallying to win three straight games. Similar situation here and, though I am not saying the Stars are going to necessarily take 3 straight again, I certainly do see them responding off that loss. They are 5-1 the last 6 times they've entered a game off a loss. Bounce back time here. 10* DALLAS |
|||||||
05-01-19 | Blazers +4 v. Nuggets | Top | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #577 Wednesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 9:05 ET - It looks easy to simply take the Nuggets on their home floor, right? Of course this was particularly true when the line opened up at a 3.5 in some of the big books offshore. Not surprisingly, the line is now up to as high as a 4.5 as of game day morning and I am fading the masses and grabbing the road dog here. The Trail Blazers are off back to back non-covers. Note that Portland is a PERFECT 8-0 SU the last 8 times they've entered a game on an ATS losing streak of 2 or more games. Though I do expect the outright upset here I am grabbing the points with the Blazers for added insurance in this one but, the point is, a SU win is likely in this one so having a handful of points too is simply an added bonus for us. The Nuggets were on a 5-9 ATS run in home games before notching the win and cover in Game 1 of this series. I look for Denver to drop to 11-19 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Trail Blazers will turn up the heat on defense after allowing 121 at Denver Monday. Note that, prior to that game the road team had covered 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams. Keep in mind, since the All-Star break two and a half months ago, the Blazers have lost back to back games only ONCE! Look for a huge bounce back from the road team to even this series up but grab those points for the added insurance. 10* PORTLAND |
|||||||
05-01-19 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees @ 3:40 ET - After yesterday's pitchers duel between CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke, look for a much different type of game today. The Yankees hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka and his pitches generated a lot of contact in his most recent start. He had been pitching well prior to that start but the fact Tanaka struggled to get any swings and misses at his stuff against a struggling Angels lineup is absolutely a sign he should get rocked again today. That said, there is great line value here with this total posted at only 8 runs. This is particularly true because I also do not expect much success for the Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly. The Arizona right-hander had been pitching in Korea the past 4 seasons. He started this season strong in his first two starts but faced lineups that were slumping at the time. Speaking of struggling lineups, the Pirates are the team Kelly faced in his most recent start and that helped lead to a successful outing. But in his two prior starts Kelly allowed 7 earned runs on 14 hits and 8 walks in less than 9 innings of work. That said, he is being vastly over-rated at this early point in the season and, based on what I expect out of he and Tanaka today, this total is an absolute bargain at only 8 runs. Even with yesterday's result including, the Yankees are 11-3 to the over in road games this season. Also, the Diamondbacks have scored an average of 6 runs per game their past 8 games and haven't had back to back unders in over a week and a half. That won't change here either! 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
|||||||
04-30-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -7 | Top | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #572 Tuesday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - I had the 76ers last night after they got thoroughly embarrassed at Toronto in Game 1. The result? A never in doubt cover even though many pundits left the Sixers for dead after the Raptors destroyed them in Game 1. The same principle applies to this match-up. As a result of the Celtics winning big at Milwaukee in Game 1, there is already a strong anti-Bucks pro-Celtics attitude among the so-called experts. As always, over-reacting to one game is a common theme in today's "what have you done for me lately" world. I am going contrarian here and grabbing a Bucks team others won't want to lay the points with and, certainly, it is not without plenty of logic and reason. First off the Celtics made 34 of 56 two point FG attempts in Game 1 while Milwaukee made only 18 of 50 two point FG attempts. Give plenty of credit to Boston for that but do you really think the Bucks aren't going to make adjustments for Game 2? They are on their home floor and will be fired up and ready to respond on BOTH ends of the floor after being embarrassed in front of their own fans in Game 1. Keep in mind that is a 32 point difference on two pointers. If Bucks just play "even" with Boston from inside the arc they win Game 1 by 10 points and I feel they can do even better than "even" with the Celtics in Game 2. After all, Milwaukee is 21-1 SU (including 11-0 SU at home) when coming off a loss this season. Okay, but what about the cover? Milwaukee, if you like them to get the SU win here, should also be whom you back for the cover because 83% of their wins this season came by 8 or more points. In fact, 16 of their 17 wins since March 1st have come by a margin of 8 or more points. As for the Celtics, 8 of their last 11 losses have come by a margin of 8 or more points. The Bucks roll big at home in this one. 10* MILWAUKEE |
|||||||
04-30-19 | A's v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Oakland A's @ 7:10 ET - Chilly weather at Fenway Park in Boston Tuesday evening but that won't be enough to help these two struggling hurlers. Aaron Brooks shut down the Red Sox in Oakland on the first day of this month. But since then he has a 6.86 ERA in his last 4 starts and Brooks now makes his first ever appearance at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are starting to hit the ball much better since returning home. There were a couple exceptions when they faced tough pitchers like Morton and Glasnow but in their other 3 home games the past 6 days Boston has averaged 9 runs per game including a 9-run outburst yesterday. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Brooks. Give him credit for an amazing first start this season against the Red Sox but their bats were really struggling early this season. Not only has Brooks struggled since then, he also has a career .289 batting average against at the MINOR league level. I do not mean to be disrespectful but when guys have been hit at nearly a .300 clip through all levels of minor league ball from rookie league all the way up they generally prove to struggle facing major league hitters! As for Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, he is off a RARE solid start but he faced the Tigers. He now faces an Oakland team that has averaged 5 runs per game their last 8 games and scored 4 or more runs in 6 of those 8 games. Porcello faced the A's once last season and got knocked around for 5 earned runs in 6 innings. This is a hurler whom has struggled with the long ball and allowed 2 homers in that start against Oakland too. Porcello is getting hit at .347 clip this season! Also, the Red Sox bullpen has a 4.74 ERA at home and the Athletics bullpen has a 5.21 ERA on the road so far this season. As you can see per the above, we should see runs early, often, and throughout this game! The over is 8-4 in Oakland's road games this season and the Red Sox are 5-0 to the over in Porcello's starts this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
|||||||
04-30-19 | Bruins +104 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NHL Game #67 Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Bruins Money Line (+) @ Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:05 ET - Just like yesterday's play with the Blues over the Stars, I like to look for situations where I have the better team, in a favorable spot, and I can get them at plus money. This one checks the boxes on all 3 of those factors. Though there may not be a huge difference between these teams there is no argument really that the Bruins are the better team. The odds makers are telling you that. In Game 1 of this series Boston went off the board priced as high as a -150 favorite on home ice. Now, in Game 3, the Blue Jackets get their shot on home ice and they are priced as low as a -115 favorite. As for the favorable spot, Columbus won Game 2 so the Bruins are highly motivated to bounce back here and return the favor by getting a win on enemy ice in Game 3. As for the plus money price, Boston is available at +105 in some books as of early Tuesday morning. Again, this one checks the box on all 3 variables I like to look for when seeking value in betting. Since mid-March the Bruins are 6-2 when coming off a loss. Also, Boston is 13-6 on the season when playing with two days of rest between games and also 12-3 in Tuesday games. The Blue Jackets have been strong this April but the prior two Aprils lost 14 of 19 (DOWN $9,300 at a dime per game). Road teams were strong in the first round playoff action in the NHL and it has continued in the 2nd round with the road teams going 6-3 so far in the first 9 games. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* BOSTON |
|||||||
04-29-19 | Blues +104 v. Stars | Top | 4-3 | Win | 104 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NHL Game #61 Monday 10* Top Play St Louis Blues Money Line (+) @ Dallas Stars @ 8:05 ET - I like to look for situations where I have the better team, in a favorable spot, and I can get them at plus money. This one checks the boxes on all 3 of those factors. Though there may not be a huge difference between these teams there is no argument really that the Blues are the better team. The odds makers are telling you that. In Game 1 of this series St Louis went off the board priced as high as a -160 favorite on home ice. Now, in Game 3, the Stars get their shot on home ice and they are priced as low as a -115 favorite. As for the favorable spot, Dallas won Game 2 so the Blues are highly motivated to bounce back here and return the favor by getting a win on enemy ice in Game 3. As for the plus money price, St Louis is available at +105 in some books as of early Monday morning. Again, this one checks the box on all 3 variables I like to look for when seeking value in betting. Since mid-March the Blues are 5-1 when coming off a loss. Also, St Louis is 18-9 on the season when off a game in which the Blues allowed 4 or more goals. The Stars have lost 42 of 70 (DOWN $23,200 at a dime per game) when Dallas is off game which they won by a margin of 2 or more goals. Road teams were strong in the first round playoff action in the NHL and it has continued in the 2nd round with the road teams going 5-3 so far in the first 8 games. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* ST LOUIS |
|||||||
04-29-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-89 | Win | 102 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - Even more so today than in the past, likely to due to social media influence and the overall vast amount of media coverage on games and match-ups, public opinion is swayed extremely fast. The Sixers are now "left for dead" in this series because they lost Game 1. That is simply preposterous. Let me explain what happened in Game 1. The Sixers shot less than 40% from the field while the Raptors shot better than 50%. Games like this happen from time to time for all teams and Philadelphia is no exception. Yes, I am aware of their poor recent history at Toronto but think of all the bad teams the 76ers have had in recent seasons that helped build that 0-14 SU run in games played north of the border. Philadelphia, of course, is a much better team this season and the fact is that the Sixers had 13 offensive rebounds in Game 1 compared to the Raptors having just 2 and that helped lead to a 14-2 edge in 2nd chance points. Overall for the game the 76ers took 10 more shots from the field. They weren't soft, they just didn't shoot well. The fact is Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam had huge games for the Raptors in Game 1 but you can bet the 76ers will make some adjustments. The remainder of Toronto's team combined to score just 34 points in Game 1 on 13 of 41 shooting. Remember what happened when Philly lost Game 1 to the Nets in the first round and everyone was bashing the 76ers? They responded and won 4 straight games to quiet the critics. Of course I am not saying that is happening here in this series but I am saying that getting a revenge-minded Philly team +6.5 points again in Game 2 is a great value. Keep in mind this is still the first season for the Raptors Nick Nurse as a head coach at the NBA level. Don't be surprised when the Sixers win the "adjustment game" here in Game 2. The fact is you know that Leonard and Siakam are highly unlikely to combine for 74 points again just like the 76ers Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Jimmy Butler are extremely unlikely to go 15 for 47 combined from the field again! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
04-29-19 | Astros v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros @ 7:40 ET - When teams get a quick 2nd look at starting pitchers it almost always favors the hitters. That's because they just saw the offerings of that hurler and can be better adjusted the 2nd time around. This total is being kept low because Justin Verlander is a high quality pitcher. As a result, I like the value we're getting here with this total at just 8.5 runs as of early Monday morning. The Twins have been swinging the bats well and also will be at home this time against Verlander. That does make a difference. Minnesota won 4-1 yesterday and that marked the 11th time in their last 12 games that they've scored at least 4 runs. As for the Astros, they also are off a 4-1 win yesterday and that marked the 8th time in their last 10 games that they've scored at least 4 runs. Keep in mind, getting each team to 4 runs here guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and that equates to a winning ticket with this over. The Twins have a .515 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers this season and that ranks them #1 out of all 30 teams in the majors! The Astros are hitting .271 on the season overall and that ranks them #1 out of all 30 teams in the majors! Though Jake Odorizzi held Houston to just 2 earned runs last week he was fortunate as he allowed 8 hits in less than 6 innings of work and only had 2 strikeouts! He has now given up 7 earned runs in 10 and 1/3 innings in his last 2 starts against the Astros plus he allowed 3 homers in the process. The Twins have scored an average of 6.6 runs per game their last 9 games. Houston has scored an average of 5.5 runs per game their last 10 games. The over is 8-4 in Twins night games this season. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
|||||||
04-28-19 | Avalanche +125 v. Sharks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 125 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NHL Game #53 Sunday 10* Top Play Colorado Avalanche Money Line (+) @ San Jose Sharks @ 7:35 ET - In general, rest is a good thing. However, when it is too much rest it can lead to rust and that was the case with the Avalanche in Game 1 of this series. Colorado was up 2-1 and had a chance to really take over the game with a Sharks double minor penalty leading to a 4 minute power play. When the Avs failed to score on that the entire complexion of the game changed as San Jose really raised their level of play while Colorado, still a little rusty from the layoff, failed to do so. As a result, the Sharks scored the final 4 goals of the game and the history of struggles for the Avalanche in games played at San Jose continued. With full consideration to all of the above, the fact is that it was no fluke that Colorado won 4 straight games against a great Calgary team in the first round. While San Jose was impressive in managing a huge comeback in their first round series with the Golden Knights, the fact is that Vegas was not nearly the team this season that they were last season. The point being that I was much more impressed with the Avs series win over a Flames team that finished the regular season with the best record in the West. The Avalanche really elevated their level of play after dropping Game 1 of their opening round series with Calgary and they'll do the same thing here against San Jose. Grab the solid underdog money line value here. 10* COLORADO |
|||||||
04-28-19 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers @ 4:10 ET - Lance Lynn had a 4.77 ERA and I watched many of his starts and it certainly could have been much worse. That is why the right-hander is bouncing around as this is his 4th team now in recent seasons as he has been with the Cardinals, Twins, Yankees, and now the Rangers. The right-hander is getting pummeled this season at a .302 clip and I expect the Mariners to pound him after getting embarrassed in yesterday's 15-1 loss to Texas. The over is 6-2-1 in Seattle's last 9 games. Prior to yesterday's ugly defeat, the Mariners had scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in their 8 previous games. The Rangers lineup comes into this one red hot. Texas has averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game their last 16 games. The Rangers have scored an average of 6.5 runs on 10.3 hits in their last 8 games. They'll take advantage of a young hurler whom is over-rated right now. Yes Erik Swanson has good early numbers but he has only made two starts. The young right-hander struggled in his 2nd start versus the Padres after excelling in his first start versus the Indians. The fact is that the San Diego team and Cleveland team he faced are two of the worst offenses in MLB early this season. Now he faces a Rangers team that has been one of the highest-scoring teams in the majors. Which team has scored the most runs? The Mariners! And also these two teams have a bullpen ERA that ranks each of them among the worst in the majors. All signs point to a high-scoring game here. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
|||||||
04-28-19 | Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 3:35 ET - The Warriors Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both are dealing with ankle injuries entering this game. Thompson's appears to be the bigger concern but, either way, it is definitely an issue. Many are going to look at the low spread on this game and jump on the home team but the contrarian viewpoint should prove to be the right viewpoint here. The fact is that the Rockets are only getting about a half-dozen points here with good reason. Not only the fact that Curry and Thompson may not be 100% but also the fact that Golden State is off a bit of a grueling series with the Clippers. That series with LA took more effort from the Warriors than many expected and, while Golden State is on short rest here, the Rockets have a solid rest edge after dispatching of the Jazz in 5 games. The Warriors are a long-term 11-24 ATS in Sunday games including a poor 2-9 ATS this season. Golden State is also 14-24 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. The Rockets enter this game on a 9-3 ATS run. Also, Kevin Durant just had a huge series against the Clippers but he never scored more than 29 in the 3 games versus Houston this season. He won't be able to carry the Warriors against a high-quality Rockets team like he did against the 8th seeded Clippers. If the Rockets are going to steal a road game in this series this looks like a great spot given the rest edge. I am grabbing the points as added insurance but I truly do expect an outright upset. 10* HOUSTON |
|||||||
04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 86-90 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #542 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 10:05 ET - The Spurs shot a very high percentage in their Game 6 win and that included both from inside and outside the arc. San Antonio will not repeat that on the road. First off the Spurs have lost 6 of their last 7 road trips to Denver. Secondly, the Nuggets are fired up after letting the elimination opportunity slip away in the 2nd half of that game at San Antonio. Denver, when playing on their home floor off a SU road loss is a perfect 9-0 SU the last 9 times! You can easily see why it is logical for the Nuggets to get this home win. However, what about the cover? Note that each of the last 5 games in this series have been decided by 9 or more points. Also, 6 of the Nuggets last 7 wins have come by a margin of 9 or more points. Each of the Spurs last 6 losses have come by 7 or more points. San Antonio shot a ridiculous 57% from the field in Game 6. The last 7 times the Spurs are off a game where they shot 48% or better from the field, they've gone 1-6 ATS in their next game. You can see whey the odds strongly favor a solid home win for the Nuggets in this win. 10* DENVER |
|||||||
04-27-19 | Rays v. Red Sox -133 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #922 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 4:05 ET - The Rays are attracting attention from the market place today because Tampa Bay is at the top of the AL East right now while the Red Sox are near the basement. However, there are a number of reasons to like Boston at a very reasonable price in this one. For one thing, the Rays Charlie Morton has a history of struggles against the Red Sox. After allowing 5 earned runs in 6 innings versus Boston at Tropicana Field last Saturday, Morton now has a 5.74 ERA and has been hit at a .303 clip in his last 3 starts against the Red Sox. Also, a little rest is good but too much can be bad for a hitters timing. The off day yesterday due to the rainout may very well help Boston as they were in action Thursday versus Detroit. However, the Rays timing at the plate could be thrown off as they already had the prior day scheduled as an off day so now they'll be playing for the first time since Wednesday! As for Boston's David Price, the southpaw has been fantastic at Fenway Park. He dominated with 7 scoreless innings in his only start here this season and he entered this season having gone 20-6 with a 3.43 ERA the past 3 seasons in his starts here! He entered this season 4-2 with a 2.97 ERA in his last 11 games (10 starts) against the Rays and held them to a .211 average in those games. Price held them to just 5 hits while striking out 10 in 5 innings at Tampa Bay Sunday. He can dominate them again. Also, while the Red Sox have injury issues at 2nd base, it has been Michael Chavis whom has filled in. The last 3 games he has reached base 6 times in 12 at bats while hitting .333 and slugging 2 homers! In other words, the Red Sox are doing just fine at 2nd base and everyone else is healthy and the BoSox have scored 18 runs their past two games and building confidence. I look for their roll to continue here. 10* BOSTON |
|||||||
04-27-19 | Stars +127 v. Blues | Top | 4-2 | Win | 127 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Game #41 Saturday 10* Top Play Dallas Stars Money Line (+) @ St Louis Blues @ 3:05 ET - The Stars limited the Blues to just 20 shots on goal in Game 1 but lost a tight game 3-2. Look for Dallas to bounce back strong here. Keep in mind, the Stars had won 6 of their 7 prior games against the Blues and that includes each of their 2 prior visits to St Louis. Overall, the road team had taken 3 of the last 4 games between these teams before that Game 1 home ice win for the Blues. In the last 5 meetings between these games, St Louis has scored a total of only 7 non-power play goals. Conversely, the Stars have scored a total of 12 non-power play goals in the last 5 games between these hockey clubs. Despite the Game 1 result, I still feel that Dallas has the advantage in 5 on 5 hockey and I still prefer having the veteran Ben Bishop in goal on my side over the rookie Jordan Binnington for the Blues. St Louis has lost 12 of 20 when they enter a game having stayed under the total in 3 straight games. The Stars have won 7 of 10 games when in a road game with a posted total of 5 or less goals. Look for another tight low-scoring game here with the road team again having the edge in shots on goal but this time it properly translates to a road dog win. 10* DALLAS |
|||||||
04-26-19 | Avalanche +111 v. Sharks | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Game #5 Friday 10* Top Play Colorado Avalanche Money Line (+) @ San Jose Sharks @ 10:05 ET - The Avalanche have a lot of speed and their top line of Rantanen, MacKinnon, and Landeskog is going to give the Sharks trouble. This is particularly true with the Sharks coming off their emotional and physically grueling hard-fought series win over the Golden Knights. Keep in mind, Vegas has become a big rival for San Jose and I would not be surprised to see the Sharks a little flat or listless here after working so hard to get past the Knights. That Game 7 win featured San Jose coming all the way back from a 3-0 third period deficit and also featured overtime. That said, I like the underdog Avalanche in Game 1 as the Sharks are likely to still be "spent" from their first round series. Additionally, Pavelski (San Jose captain) is unlikely to play tonight while Colorado could have both Brassard and Girard available for this one. The Sharks are at home, have held the upper hand in recent meetings between these teams, and yet are priced very low in Game 1. Do you think the odds makers do NOT know what they're doing? Of course they know! Don't be fooled by the low line here as the play is to go contrarian and take the small road dog and that is precisely what I am doing in this one. 10* COLORADO |
|||||||
04-26-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +10 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #534 Friday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 10:05 ET - With their upset loss at home on Wednesday, the Warriors are now just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. Golden State continues to be over-valued and now they are laying double digits on the road in a game where the Clippers absolutely will not quit. Once again it is "win or go home" for Los Angeles and I look for another huge effort here just like we saw in Game 5. The Clippers are 13-7 ATS when trailing in a playoff series and that includes a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. In Friday games this season LA is 10-4 ATS (including 12-2 SU). Though I don't another outright upset tonight I am fully expecting that the Clippers stay within single digits in this one. Keep in mind, after the Clips got blown out in Game 1 of this series, 3 of the last 4 games have been decided by single digits. This one will be too. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
|||||||
04-26-19 | Rockies v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:20 ET - This is a contrarian play all the way and it is the type of situation I love as we get extra line value due to market perception. This total opened up at a 9 but dropped to an 8.5 because of the fact that the Braves Max Fried and the Rockies Antonio Senzatela both have good numbers this season. Keep in mind it is still very early in the season though and Senzatela has made only two starts. One was against the light-hitting Padres at pitcher-friendly San Diego and in his other start Senzatela did allow 4 earned runs in 6 innings against a Phillies team that otherwise has been struggling at the plate of late. As for Fried, yes he has great numbers early this season but his most recent outing was against an Indians team that has ranked among the worst in the majors at the plate early this season and he still allowed 7 hits and walked 3 in 6 and 1/3 innings. The Rockies just saw him for the first time about two weeks ago so getting a 2nd look at Fried will prove to be an advantage tonight. As for Senzatela, he faced the Braves last season and had more walks than strikeouts plus allowed 2 earned runs in 5 innings. The rematch is likely to be worse as Atlanta enters this game having averaged 6 runs and 11 hits per game in their last 5 games. The Rockies also have been swinging the bats better as they have won 8 of their last 10 games and averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in the process. The point is that we can take advantage of a low total here thanks to market perception. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
|||||||
04-25-19 | Nuggets +3 v. Spurs | Top | 103-120 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #525 Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Spurs are not the team they use to be and that fact continues to show in the post-season results. San Antonio has lost 11 of its last 14 playoff games, got eliminated from the playoffs in the first round last season, and is about to suffer that same fate this season. Yes, the Spurs have home court on their side in this Game 6 but I love the fact that is allowing us to get the Nuggets +3 in this one. Denver has not only won the last two games (including Game 4 in SA), they've dominated as they've won each of the last two games by double digits. Keep in mind, the Spurs have not held the Nuggets below 108 points in ANY of the last 4 games. Conversely, San Antonio has been held to 105 points or less in 4 of the 5 games. It is easy to see which team is executing better and I look for Denver to close this out tonight but am happy to grab the 3 points as added "insurance" in this one. The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS this season when off a game in which they held their opponent to 90 points or loss. The Spurs are 11-17 ATS when they enter a game having allowed 105 points or more in 3 straight games. Simply put, San Antonio hasn't been able to get stops when they need them throughout the majority of this series. That problem continues to ail them tonight. 10* DENVER |
|||||||
04-25-19 | Tigers v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - I had the over in this match-up yesterday and, admittedly, caught a break. The game had a decent start in terms of run production but then stalled until the Red Sox had a huge bottom of the 8th. However, rather than shy away from coming right back with the same play (because of getting fortunate) I actually am recommending to again invest in the same play between the same teams today. One of the keys is that the Tigers bullpen has been a strength this season but yesterday's performance absolutely could be a sign of things to come. Likewise, the Red Sox bats have been slow to get going this season but yesterday's 11 runs scored absolutely could be the catalyst for the Boston bats to get hot. That said, the fact this total dropped to a 9 this morning offers value also as now we just need each team to get to 4 runs and we can't lose the play. Note that the Tigers have scored 4 or more runs in 4 straight games. Also, Detroit is averaging 5 runs per game in their last 6 games. The Red Sox have scored 4 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games and have scored an average of 5.5 runs per game in those 6 games. Boston's Rick Porcello may have extra motivation going against his former team but that didn't help him the last time he faced Detroit. The Tigers got to him for 11 hits in 6 innings when he most recently faced them. Porcello gives up too many homers and that has continued this season and has played a role in his winless record and 8.49 ERA on the season. The Tigers Jordan Zimmerman also has struggled as he is winless with a 4.94 ERA on the season. He started the season well but has a 9.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. Zimmerman's last two starts at Fenway Park have seen him allow 9 earned runs in less than 9 innings of work! The over is 3-0 in Zimmerman's last 3 starts and 4-0 in Porcello's starts this season but 2-0 in Porcello's last two starts against the Tigers. Detroit is a long-term 27-12 to the over in Thursday games and the Red Sox are 3-0 to the overs in Thursday games this season. Lot of perfect edges here! 10* OVER the total in Boston |
|||||||
04-25-19 | Blue Jackets v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Game #3 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Bruins vs Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:05 ET - The over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. Blue Jackets goalie Sergei Bobrovsky played very well in the first round series versus the Lightning but he does have a sub-par playoff history. Additionally, he could be rusty here after the long layoff between games because Columbus swept Tampa Bay in the first round. The Blue Jackets haven't played in over a week while the Bruins just wrapped up their series with the Maple Leafs on Tuesday. I look for Boston to be on the attack early and often in this one as they try to catch Columbus and their rust factor early in the game. Keep in mind Bobrovsky has won just 3 of his 11 career decisions against the Bruins and has an ugly 3.90 GAA against them. The good news for Columbus fans tonight is, even though the Jackets are likely to struggle to stop the Bruins I do see the Blue Jackets scoring well in this one. The moves they made late in the season prior to the trade deadline have strengthened this team. Columbus has been red hot and has won 11 of their last 12 games thanks to production on offense that has seen the Blue Jackets score an average of 4.5 goals per game in these dozen games. More of the same expected here and this total is a bargain at 5.5 goals. Once the Jackets shake the rust off their speed is going to give the Bruins some trouble but look for Boston to get the early jump in this game with some early goals. By the 3rd period I expect this to be a 3-3 game which locks in our play as a win. The Bruins have scored 4 or more goals in 4 of their last 6 games. The over is 12-4 (including 5-0 this season) when Columbus enters a game with 3 or more days of rest between games. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
|||||||
04-24-19 | Jazz +8 v. Rockets | Top | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Jazz played much better defense at home than they did in the first two games of this series at Houston. Look for Utah to carry over that strong play to this game. Keep in mind, the Jazz lost Game 3 by only 3 points and then won Game 4 by double digits. Their confidence is growing with each game and the Rockets are now going to be in a fierce war to try and put this team away. The Jazz are 14-6 SU their last 20 games and 4 of the 6 losses have come by 6 points or less. That means if you had Utah +7 or more in their last 20 games you would have cashed 90% of your bets! The point being that, despite how the first two games of this series played out, the Jazz are not an easy team to blowout. With the strong defense expected to continue here, I look for Utah to hang tough with the Rockets throughout Game 5. The Jazz are getting more points tonight (8 or 8.5) than they did in the first two games of this series (6.5) and this is even though they are playing their best basketball of the series right now. I am grabbing the added value and expecting an absolute war tonight that ends up being decided by just a single possession or two at the most when the final horn sounds. 10* UTAH |
|||||||
04-24-19 | Hurricanes +145 v. Capitals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 145 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Game #23 Wednesday 10* Top Play Carolina Hurricanes Money Line (+) @ Washington Capitals @ 7:35 ET - As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian. In this series the home team has won all 6 games. So who do I have in Game 7? The road team of course! But it is certainly not without good reason. The Hurricanes, arguably (but many hockey experts would agree), have outplayed the Capitals in this series. Carolina has been physical and has seen their star players step up as this series has gone on. It is so hard to repeat as champions in the NHL and that is the uphill battle that Washington is in as they're simply trying to get out of the first round and I feel they won't make it. Very few series in playoff history go 7 games and see the home team win all 7 games. Amazingly this one has gone 6 with home ice prevailing every time. That streak ends tonight. The Hurricanes have stolen the momentum in this series by winning 3 of the last 4 games. The Canes also have won 21 of 32 games this season when off a game which they won by a margin of 2 or more goals. Overall, the Capitals have won just 10 of their last 19 games. Included in that stretch was winning just 3 of their last 6 home games in the regular season. The Hurricanes have outshot Washington 192 to 153 in this series and that includes outshooting them in 2 of the 3 games played in DC. More of the same tonight but this time it translates to a victory for the road team. 10* CAROLINA |
|||||||
04-24-19 | Tigers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Tigers are loaded with confidence after earning the sweep yesterday. Detroit has now won 4 of its last 5 games and averaged 11 hits per game in these 5 contests. The Tigers pounded out a dozen hits in each game of the twinbill yesterday. That included Detroit giving the Red Sox beleaguered bullpen plenty of trouble yesterday. Boston's bullpen ERA ranks them among the worst in the majors this season as they are far off the mark from where they were last season. I do look for the BoSox bats to bounce back today and that is why I expect this game to fly over the total because Detroit should stay hot at the plate as well. The Tigers will be facing Eduardo Rodriguez and the over is 3-1 in his 4 starts this season as he has compiled a 7.20 ERA. The Red Sox will be facing Tyson Ross in this one. I am well aware that Ross has some decent numbers early this season but as he continues to throw hanging sliders, more and more damage will be done to his offerings. Ross has given up 9 runs in 12 innings in his last two starts but it is a bit "hidden" due to some unearned runs. He did allow 2 homers in his last start and, prior to that, Ross had more walks than strikeouts in his prior start. Also, his strikeout numbers are down in his last two starts. Both teams also had to use extra bullpen arms yesterday due to the double header. The wind is expected to be blowing out toward right field in this one at Fenway Park. The over is a long-term 53-35 (including 2-0 this season) in Detroit's games against southpaw starters. The over is 5-1 in Rodriguez's last 6 starts dating back to September of last season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
|||||||
04-23-19 | Nets v. 76ers OVER 229.5 | Top | 100-122 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Brooklyn Nets @ 8:05 ET - The first game in this series stayed under the total because the Sixers shot an unreal 3 of 25 from three point land on their home floor! The next two games went over the total and then Game 4 stayed under the total as both teams shot less than 32% from beyond the arc. In other words, that was a statistical anomaly and a repeat of that is unlikely. In fact, I like that fact the Nets averaged 117 points per game in the two games played here in Philly while the 76ers have responded very well since the Game 1 loss. Not only has Philly won 3 straight games, they've averaged 129 points per game in the last 3 games. The Sixers are hungry to close this out but also feeling a lot less pressure since they were able to eke out a tight win at Brooklyn in Game 4. The point is that I look for a very loose Philadelphia team (no pressure) to be shooting the ball very tonight in Game 5 but I also would not be surprised to see them also playing loose on defense. After all, defense is certainly not the strength of the Sixers. Couple that with the fact that these teams are both comfortable playing at a fast pace and that both teams shot less than their typical 3-point shooting percentage in Game 4, and you have the perfect recipe for an over here. The over is 8-3 this season when the 76ers enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The over is a long-term 13-5 in Sixers games since mid-March. Also, the total on this one has dropped from 231 to 229.5 and that adds some value as well. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
|||||||
04-23-19 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:10 ET - The Phillies are without a couple of guys in their lineup right now but they still have plenty of solid hitters and sluggers up and down the lineup. After managing just 3 hits in last night's 5-1 loss to the Mets, look for the Phils sticks to bounce back in New York tonight. However, Zach Eflin gets the call on the mound for Philadelphia and he has not fared well at Citi Field. He is winless in his 3 career starts there and that includes compiling an ugly 10.13 ERA at Citi Field last year. The Mets are averaging a solid 6 runs per game in their home games this season and should get to Eflin here. However, New York's starting pitcher, Zack Wheeler is also likely to struggle. The Phillies just saw him last week and though he fared quite well he did allow two homers. Also, the last time Wheeler faced the Phils at Citi Field, they got to him for 10 baserunners (7 hits, 3 walks) in less than 5 innings of work. 2 of Eflin's last 3 starts versus the Mets have resulted in an over. Though Wheeler's start against the Phillies last week resulted in an under, the over was previously 7-3 in his 10 prior starts against Philadelphia. The over is 9-2 in Mets night games this season and 8-3 in Mets games against teams with a winning record. That includes last night's under and so do these stats: the Phillies are 10-5 to the over in divisional games this season and also 9-5 to the over in night games this season. 10* OVER the total in New York Mets |
|||||||
04-23-19 | Maple Leafs +125 v. Bruins | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NHL Game #9 Tuesday 10* Top Play Toronto Maple Leafs Money Line (+) @ Boston Bruins @ 7:05 ET - Why would this year be any different? The Bruins have had the Maple Leafs number in recent playoff meetings but this Toronto team is stronger than those while Boston is actually a step down from those teams. Additionally, the home team went 5-2 in last spring's post-season series but this season these teams enter Game 7 with the road team having won 3 straight games in this series and also 5 of the last 7 meetings overall! Home ice has not been a positive of late and I like the value with the Leafs as a sizable dog here. The Bruins are just 1-4 when tied in a playoff series. The Maple Leafs are 21-10 this season after allowing 4 or more goals. 10* TORONTO |
|||||||
04-22-19 | Bucks v. Pistons OVER 217.5 | Top | 127-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #573 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - Even though the Pistons have been held to 38.5% or less from the field in all 3 games of this series, 2 of the 3 have gone over the total. Of course part of the reason for that is the fact Detroit has been struggling to stop the Bucks but the other reason is that the pace has certainly been there for an over as well. The Pistons have averaged 96 field goal attempts per game so far in this series. With tonight being "now or never" for Detroit, I look for another game to again feature a good pace for an over. The Pistons will go "all out" here at home and note that the over is 8-2 in the last 10 games for Milwaukee and also 3-1 when the Bucks are leading in a playoff series. The fact is Detroit can't stop the Bucks but I also don't expect the Pistons to go away without a fight tonight as they look to avoid suffering a sweep and having it occur on their home floor. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Milwaukee's last 4 road games. The Bucks have averaged 124.1 points per game in their last 10 games. If Milwaukee hits their average here and the odds makers are correct about the line (Bucks by a dozen) you have a 124-112 type game and that has this one ending well above the current total of 217.5 as of early game day morning. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
|||||||
04-22-19 | Capitals v. Hurricanes -109 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Game #90 Monday 10* Top Play Carolina Hurricanes Money Line (-) vs Washington Capitals @ 7:05 ET - This is one series where home ice has actually mattered. The home team has won all 5 games and I don't expect that streak to end tonight. Carolina is off an embarrassing 6-0 loss at Washington in Saturday's Game 5 and they're ready to respond here. The Hurricanes are 9-1 this season in home games with posted total of 5.5 goals. Also, the Capitals have lost 5 of their last 9 road games. The Canes have won 18 of their last 24 home games. Included in that stretch for Carolina is 4 straight wins on home ice by a combined score of 17-4. Look for a big response here after the embarrassing Game 5 loss. Note that the Hurricanes did actually outshoot the Caps in that game but were done in by Washington going 3 for 4 on the power play. The Canes have outshot the Capitals by an average margin of 5.6 shots on goal per game in this series. The special teams problems for the Hurricanes Saturday are unlikely to be repeated here as they have held opponents to just 2 for 15 on the power play in their last 6 home games. Look for the home team to make it 6 in a row in this series. There are some injury issues for each side but one could argue the TJ Oshie injury for the Capitals is the biggest one. 10* CAROLINA |
|||||||
04-22-19 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - The White Sox (5.04 ERA) and Orioles (6.55 ERA) have two of the worst bullpens in the majors so far this season. Also, this total first opened up at a 10.5 yesterday afternoon but has now dropped to a 9.5 as of game day morning. Chicago starter Manny Banuelos is making his first start since 2015 as he has been working out of the bullpen. Baltimore starter David Hess had a great first start this season but then went 0-3 with a 9.24 ERA in his 3 starts that followed. Last season Hess went 3-10 with a 4.88 ERA so the long-term certainly shows his early strong outing versus the Blue Jays this year is the exception rather than the norm. The over is 4-2 in White Sox road games with a money line between +125 and -125. The over is 9-5 this season in Chicago's games against right-handed starters. The Baltimore over is 9-1 this season in home games. The Orioles over is also 8-3 this season in night games. The O's entered yesterday's action having averaged 5 runs per game at home this season. The White Sox entered yesterday's action having averaged 6.5 runs per game on the road this season. With the extra line value thanks to the drop on this total, this one gets my top play rating. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
|||||||
04-21-19 | Sharks +165 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-1 | Win | 165 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Game #83 Sunday 10* Top Play San Jose Sharks Money Line (+) @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 7 ET - Great line value here as the Sharks are back in business with the 5-2 win in Game 5. With just one upset win (here on the road in Vegas), the Sharks can send this series to a Game 7 where San Jose would also have the benefit of home ice. That said, there is a lot of pressure on Marc Andre Fleury and the Golden Knights to bounce back and close this series on home ice. Vegas certainly doesn't want to even think about having to play Game 7 on the road at San Jose but that is what will happen should they fall short today. The point being the pressure is not just on the team facing elimination here. The Golden Knights also know (and feel) what it as stake here. San Jose did drop the two games in this series played at Vegas but they wrapped up the regular season 10-5 in their last 15 road games. The Golden Knights, after the loss in Game 5, have now lost 9 of their last 13 games. Also, goalie Martin Jones got his confidence back with his performance Thursday and the Sharks also have some added confidence after handing Fleury his second sub-par performance in the 5 games in this series. Look for 3rd one here and grab the huge value available with this big dog. 10* SAN JOSE |
|||||||
04-21-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +9.5 | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 3:35 ET - This is an early start time (12:35 PM PT) and the Warriors haven't been at their best in these types of games this season. In fact, Golden State is 2-8 ATS in Sunday games this season while the Clippers have gone 10-5 ATS in Sunday games this season. After LA got thoroughly embarrassed on their home floor in Thursday's action, they've now had two full off days to think about it and build up their intensity for Game 4. I look for a huge effort from the Clippers as the Warriors are unlikely to shoot better than 70% in the first quarter like they did in the big Game 3 win. Going further back, Golden State is 11-23 ATS in their last 34 Sunday games so this hasn't been just a one-season trend for them. Perhaps too many weekend distractions for the best team in the NBA is the culprit but whatever the theory it is not a trend I will ignore. I also love the fact this line is climbing up close to a full 10 points because I know the Clippers aren't going to lay down here. They're going to be going hard for the full 48 and if they fall short I expect it to be just single digits! 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
|||||||
04-21-19 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros @ 3:05 ET - The Rangers continue to swing the bats quite well at home. Even against Gerrit Cole yesterday, though they struck out a lot, Texas pounded out big hits and sent the opposing starter to an early exit. The Astros Colin McHugh is also likely to get hit hard here and, at the same time, the Rangers Shelby Miller has little shot of keeping the Houston sticks in check. Houston already saw the Texas right-hander early this month and Miller was fortunate he allowed only 2 earned runs as he walked 5 and allowed 5 hits in less than 4 innings of work. The Astros have stayed under the total in just 21 of their last 59 Sunday games. The Rangers have scored an average of nearly 7 runs per game in their last 7 home games. The over is 9-5 when Texas is a home dog of +175 or more. The over is 4-2 this season in Rangers games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the over is a perfect 2-0 in Miller's home starts this season. McHugh has allowed 14 hits in 9 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts in Arlington. Both those starts went over the total and also each of Miller's two starts against the Astros in his career have gone over the total. Warm weather and strong south winds at Globe Life Park in Arlington also helps to produce hitter-friendly conditions here. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
|||||||
04-20-19 | Phillies -112 v. Rockies | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Saturday MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 ET - The Phillies are off a bad beat yesterday as they took the lead in the top of the 12th and then lost it in the bottom of the 12th. Philadelphia outhit the Rockies by a huge margin yesterday but Philly stranded far too many men on base. Look for a bounce back here with Aaron Nola over Antonio Senzatela in this one. Nola has not been his typical dominant self early this season but that has led to line value in this spot as the Phillies are only a small road favorite even though Nola has enjoyed success against the Rockies including a start at Coors Field. Senzatela faced Philadelphia late last September and allowed 5 hits and walked 3 in less than 5 innings of work so he was fortunate to allow only 1 earned run. Nola has struck out 17 and allowed only 10 hits in his 13 and 2/3 innings of work versus the Rockies in his career. Phillies are off B2B losses and have yet to lose 3 straight this season. Colorado has won 5 straight but previously had lost 12 of 13 prior games. Though Senzatela had a strong first start it came against a Padres team that has one of the lowest batting averages in the majors this season. The Phillies rank among the top teams in the National League for road batting average on the season with a .272 mark thus far. Philly is 10-6 this season against right-handed starters. The Rockies entered this series having gone 0-5 in home games this season. Having won 2 straight since, I don't see it reaching 3 straight. Better lineup, better starting pitcher, and not a big difference between these bullpens. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
04-20-19 | Jets +130 v. Blues | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Game #75 Saturday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line (+) @ St Louis Blues @ 7:05 ET - A home team has won only one game out of the 5 games so far in this series and that was the most recent one which featured an amazing comeback from the Blues. Down 2-0 from the first period on St Louis managed to scored 3 third period goals (including one with just 15 seconds left) to steal Game 5. Look for the Jets to respond huge in Game 6. Winnipeg is very confident playing at St Louis and they really got to Blues rookie goal Binnington in Game 3 action here. Winnipeg has won 6 of the last 10 meetings and the only 4 wins for St Louis each have come by a single goal margin. As for the Jets, their 6 wins have come by an average victory margin of 3 goals per victory which of course shows a huge difference in terms of which team has shown the ability to dominate for longer stretches in meetings between these teams! St Louis has only 3 goals in the past 3 games that have come in 5 on 5 hockey. The Jets 10 goals the last 3 games have only included 1 goal that came on the power play. The point is that, without the man advantage, the Jets have been the much more dangerous team in terms of goal-scoring ability and I look for that to key a road win to send this series back north of the border for a massive Game 7. Grab the road dog at a great price! 10* WINNIPEG |
|||||||
04-20-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 207.5 | Top | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets @ 5:35 ET - The Nuggets Murray, Barton, and Harris combined to make just 8 of 25 from the field and only 2 of 6 from the free throw line in Thursday's loss. Even with those horrible numbers Denver still scored 108 points and the game easily went over the total. Now we're seeing Saturday's total having dropped from an opener of 211 all the way down to a 207.5 and the value is with the over here. The Spurs have been getting strong guard play and the Nuggets had strong guard play in Game 2 before faltering in San Antonio in Game 3. Both those games went over the total and I expect that trend to continue here as Denver's backcourt responds after a poor game Thursday but they continue to struggle to stop White and DeRozan for the Spurs. The Nuggets don't want to get into a half-court game here with the Spurs as that plays right into the strength of San Antonio. Denver, facing a nearly insurmountable 3-1 hole with a loss here are going to try and play this game at their tempo and "force the issue" with quick buckets in transition and not allowing the Spurs defense to get fully set. Denver has scored 108 points or more in 6 of its last 8 games. SA has scored an average of 113.5 points per game in their last 17 home games. Take advantage of the line move here and expect another very entertaining battle with big scoring runs from each team at points throughout this game just like we've seen in the last two between these foes. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio |
|||||||
04-20-19 | 76ers -117 v. Nets | Top | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #557 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 3:05 ET - As I mentioned Thursday, the 76ers destroyed the Nets in the second half of Game 2 and that has set the tone for the rest of this series. Brooklyn embarrassed Philly on their home court in Game 1. Now the Sixers will be looking to return the favor as the series has shifted north and Philly won Game 3 and now looks to sweep the two games in Brooklyn with another strong effort in Game 4. The extra rest helps Philadelphia's Joel Embiid as he was able to sit out Game 3 and I know he is listed as doubtful for this game as he continues to battle with knee issues. However, considering he only logged 21 minutes in Game 2 and that game took place on Monday, I wouldn't be surprised if he plays in Game 4 on Saturday. Keep in mind, he was also listed as doubtful for Game 1 of this series but he ended up playing. The Sixers have been getting strong play from other big men when Embiid has sat so they've survived his absences. Note that Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in first round playoff games and this line is only a 1.5 so any SU win likely to lead to a point spread cover as well. In fact, with the money line very low here that is how I would recommend playing this one. Lay the short price on the money line. As for Brooklyn, of course they would love to bounce back here but the Nets are 2-7 SU and ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 23 of the Nets last 24 losses have come by 3 or more points. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
04-19-19 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Game #63 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:05 ET - Game 4 of this series went over the total but the 3 prior games all stayed under the total. From that standpoint many will be looking to the under in this Game 5 match-up but, in typical contrarian fashion, I like the over here. The power play for both teams is a key here. The Maple Leafs are coming to life now with the man advantage as they are 3 for 6 in the past two games. The Bruins power play has been a beast throughout this series as they have scored on 5 of 11 opportunities. Each of the last two games have seen 3 power play goals scored so we're seeing the scoring pick up. I also like the fact that there is so much scoring talent for both these clubs and that was evident in Game 4 when the Bruins got some guys going that needed to get on the scoring sheet but, at the same time, the Maple Leafs answered on more than one occasion. First time Toronto game back from down 2-0 to tie it up. Then again, when it looked like they were dead down 5-2, the Leafs rallied to make it a 5-4 game. Look for another wild one in Game 5 and I like the fact that plus money odds are current available on the over 6 in this one. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
|||||||
04-19-19 | Raptors v. Magic +5 | Top | 98-93 | Push | 0 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #552 Friday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - The Magic have had two full days of rest to ponder getting blasted at Toronto in Game 2 of this series. Orlando, previous to the ugly loss Tuesday, had won 12 of its last 14 games prior to the Game 2 loss. Also, the Magic are certainly happy to be back at home where, since January 31st, they have won 13 of their last 14 games including 9 straight. Yes they played some weaker foes in that stretch but the victories included wins over 4 playoff teams including the 76ers and Warriors. At the very least the Magic have earned some confidence based on their home performance the past 2 and 1/2 months! Orlando also is 15-5 ATS this season versus Atlantic Division foes. The Raptors are still just 7-10 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record and also 5-11 ATS in Friday games this season. Even including Tuesday's blowout win, this is a Toronto team that is just 9-13 SU and ATS in playoff games. The line opened up at a 4 on this one but has moved to a 5 as the Raptors have the attention of the market. That means even more value with a Magic team that is going to be very tough to put away on their home floor and has a great shot at the upset! They will respond after Tuesday's ugly loss. 10* ORLANDO |
|||||||
04-19-19 | Royals v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Top Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - I have been burned by the Yankees totals recently but the 3rd time will be the charm. Now things are getting over-adjusted by the markets and that leads to great value in a spot like this. The total on Friday's game is down to an 8.5 and this is even though temperatures will be rather mild and a steady wind is expected to be blowing out to left field at Yankee Stadium tonight. With good hitting conditions in the Bronx tonight and needing just 4 runs from each team in this one to guarantee a winner (game can't end 4-4 so we'd get at least 9 runs) this is a must play in my book. CC Sabathia had a great first start last week to open up his season but one should never over-react to just one outing. Also, the southpaw is facing a Royals team that has scored 4 or more runs in 7 of its last 9 games after yesterday's 6-1 win. I expect KC to stay hot and score their fair share of runs. The Royals confidence is growing as they have won 4 of their last 6 games. The Yankees had scored an average of nearly 6 runs per game in their 9 games prior to yesterday's poor effort. I look for the Bronx Bombers to bounce back strong against the Royals Jakob Junis tonight. The Kansas City right-hander has a 6.61 ERA and a .304 batting average against this season. He has consistently allowed 3 or more earned runs in all 4 of his starts. In their first 18 games this season, KC had just 6 unders. After last night's game stayed under the total, look for "normal" to resume tonight and take advantage of this low total. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
|||||||
04-18-19 | 76ers -2.5 v. Nets | Top | 131-115 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers destroyed the Nets in the second half of Game 2. That has set the tone for the rest of this series. Brooklyn embarrassed Philly on their home court in Game 1. Now the Sixers will be looking to return the favor as the series shifts north. The extra rest helps Philadelphia as Joel Embiid continues to battle with knee issues. Considering he only logged 21 minutes in Game 2 and that game took place on Monday, he is likely to be very strong for Game 3 on Thursday. Also, his back-up Boban Marjanovic had a very solid Game 2 and that is a good sign for the 76ers. Note that Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in first round playoff games and this line is only a 2.5 so any SU win likely to lead to a point spread cover as well. Brooklyn, of course, would love to bounce back here but the Nets are 2-6 SU and ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 22 of the Nets last 23 losses have come by 3 or more points. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
04-18-19 | Capitals v. Hurricanes -120 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NHL Game #52 Thursday 10* Top Play Carolina Hurricanes Money Line (-) vs Washington Capitals @ 7:05 ET - It is so hard to repeat as Stanley Cup Champions. Now of course I know Washington is a long way off from that as this is only the first round of this post-season but that is noteworthy for a couple reasons. The strong hunger that you saw from Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals last spring is simply not there this spring. After finally reaching the ultimate prize you certainly want to do it again but it is just the same. This is especially true when you lost your head coach to a division rival. The Islanders now have coach Barry Trotz and he just led them to a sweep of the Penguins and the Isles, of course, are loaded with players very hungry to taste post-season success. So the key point being, the Capitals are not the same team they once were and the Hurricanes are ready to even this series up. Keep in mind the only game Washington outshot the Canes was Game 2 but that was by a very slim margin and the Capitals managed to get an OT win. In the other two games the Caps have been outshot 74 to 36. You read that right, the Hurricanes had more than DOUBLE the amount of shots that Washington had in those 2 games. The point is that the Capitals are fortunate to even be up in this series. After Thursday's game, they won't! Look for the home team to improve to 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. 10* CAROLINA |
|||||||
04-18-19 | Royals v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:35 ET - It is true that Homer Bailey is off arguably his best start since the 2017 season. However, the Royals right-hander faced an Indians lineup that continues to function as one of the worst hitting teams in the majors. Likewise, Yankees right-hander Domingo German has great numbers in his first two starts but he faced the two teams projected to be the two worst teams in the AL this season as he squared off with Baltimore and Detroit. Of course Kansas City is also projected to have a rough season too but don't be surprised when they enjoy success against German in the Bronx. The Royals got a big 4-3 win in 10 innings yesterday and confidence is a little higher than usual as KC has won 4 of its last 6 games and also averaged scoring 5 runs per game in its last 8 games. The Yankees also come into this game with a boost of momentum after a 2-game sweep of the rival Red Sox that saw the Bronx Bombers score 13 runs in the two games. The Yankees lineup has produced an average of 6 runs per game their last 11 games. Just on sheer averages alone you can see why it wouldn't surprise me to see a 6-5 type game here and, keep in mind, with the total at just a 9 we only need to get each team to get to 4 runs to guarantee we won't lose the play as it would have to end at least 5-4. I am actually expecting each team to get to 5 in this one on a rather pleasant evening weather-wise in the Bronx tonight. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
|||||||
04-17-19 | Bruins +109 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 6-4 | Win | 109 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Game #45 Wednesday 10* Top Play Boston Bruins Money Line (+) @ Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:05 ET - The Maple Leafs got the best of the Bruins in Game 3 in a very tight battle. However, entering that game Boston had taken 5 of the last 7 meetings. It has been awhile since Toronto has won 2 straight in this rivalry match-up and it is not something that happens frequently. I look for the Bruins to get back on track with a determined effort on the road as they know falling into a 3-1 series hole would be very tough to come back from. Keep in mind, the Maple Leafs have not been a great team on home ice. Toronto actually was better this season on the road than at home. Prior to the win in Game 3, the Leafs had lost 5 of their last 7 games on home ice. The Bruins, prior to their loss in Game 3, had won 5 of their last 7 games on enemy ice. Long-term, when trailing in a playoff series the Bruins are 26-18 while the Maple Leafs, when leading in a playoff series, are a poor 8-16. When Boston enters a game against Toronto playing with revenge from losing to the Leafs in their prior meeting, the Bruins have won 5 of the last 6 times. I look for that trend to continue here as the Bruins top line is bound and determined to have a huge game after, for the most part, being held in check so far in this series. 10* BOSTON |
|||||||
04-17-19 | Pacers +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Wednesday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers scored 8 points in the 3rd quarter Sunday and still almost covered the spread. Indiana made a TOTAL of 8 field goals in the 2nd half Sunday and still almost covered the spread. You get my point. That was UGLY basketball and yet Boston still barely covered the spread. That line, just like this one, was right around a 7.5 and the Celtics prevailed by 10 despite scoring only 84 points. Note that Indiana's lowest scoring game this season had been 89 points. In other words, had the Pacers simply not scored any less than their worst game so far this season they would have won the game outright by 5 points. Give the Celtics defense some credit for sure but also consider it an aberration for the Pacers offense, a one-off if you will. In other words, look for a huge bounce back tonight. Indiana is angry, embarrassed, and they will be on the attack tonight and score much, much better. The Pacers are a long-term 22-11 ATS (including 7-3 ATS this season) when playing with revenge for a road loss by a double digit margin. Indiana is also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 April games and 29-16 ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Boston is 21-32 ATS (including 7-12 ATS this season) as a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Overall, the Celtics had failed to cover 8 STRAIGHT home games prior to their miracle comeback and cover from a double digit half-time deficit in Game One. It is payback time for the Pacers and, even if they fall short of the outright upset, they'll stay inside this number. 10* INDIANA |
|||||||
04-17-19 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:35 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 but has dropped to a 9 as many don't trust the Boston bats. Certainly they have struggled early this season and the Red Sox enter this game having scored a total of just 1 run in their last 2 games. However, that has led to great value here with the over and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the line move. The fact is that the Yankees J.A. Happ could be just what the doctor ordered in terms of the remedy for the Boston bats. The New York southpaw is winless with an 8.76 ERA in his first 3 starts this season. Also, Happ has allowed 8 earned runs in the 9 innings spanning his last two starts against the Red Sox. As for Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi, he has had success in recent starts versus the Yankees. However, he is not right early this season. Eovaldi is winless with an 8.40 ERA in his first 3 starts this year. Now he faces a Yankees team that has scored 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 5 games after they erupted for 8 runs in yesterday's blowout win. In fact, the Yanks have averaged 6.1 runs per game in their last 10 games. The over is 3-0 in Happ's starts this season as well as 3-0 in Eovaldi's starts this season. Only 4 of Boston's first 12 road games have resulted in an under. I look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season in Red Sox games against southpaw starters. Also, the Yankees over in divisional games is set to improve to 6-2 on the season. Look for both starters to struggle and the weather is certainly decent for mid-April in the Bronx. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
|||||||
04-16-19 | Magic +10 v. Raptors | Top | 82-111 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Zig Zag Best Bet - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The zig zag theory is one that often applies come playoff time in the NBA and that is the theory I am using to our advantage here. The fact is the markets often react greatly to the prior game in a series and when the markets zig I often like to zag and go the other way when the situation is right because we're getting extra value. That is precisely the situation here. Yes the Raptors are in bounce back mode and I do expect them to find a way to get the SU win here but I don't expect it to come by a significant margin. The fact is that Orlando has been one of the hottest teams in the league dating back to late January. The Magic have been shooting the ball very well and are playing with a ton of confidence. When you get a team like that getting double digits (by the way this line has gone from opening at 8.5 in some shops to now as 10.5 in some shops) this fits the very definition of a high value dangerous dog. Orlando will be playing in Toronto for the 3rd time already this month and 4th time since late February so they're certainly getting more and more comfortable playing here. As for confidence level, the Magic are actually 3-2 SU versus the Raptors this season and one of those two losses came by just 2 points. The other one came by a dozen points but Orlando actually had 9 more shots from the field than Toronto did but yet lost by 12 because the Raptors hit an insane 19 of 37 three pointers. Again, you can see why I am seeing value signs flashing here when we can get Orlando plus double digit points given all of the above factors. Toronto is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games and also 2-6 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series! The Magic are 13-4 ATS their last 17 games against teams with a winning record and also 15-4 ATS this season against Atlantic Division opponents. Grab the undervalued big dog in this one. 10* ORLANDO |
|||||||
04-16-19 | Blue Jays v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 102 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:40 ET - The Twins have been swinging the bats quite well early this season except at home but that had a lot to do with typical cold spring weather in Minnesota. However, temperatures today in Minneapolis are warming well into the 60s and a bounce back at the plate is expected. Yes Aaron Sanchez has some impressive numbers early this season. However, it must be noted that the Blue Jays right-hander started the season by facing the Tigers and Indians. Those are the two bottom teams in the American League for batting average so far this season. Sanchez then faced the Red Sox but even they are struggling at the plate early this season. However, Boston did get him to for 4 runs (but only 1 was earned) as he labored quite a bit with 4 walks and 5 hits in his 5 innings of work. Sanchez gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings with more walks than strikeouts when he faced the Twins here in Minnesota last season. As for Twins starter Kyle Gibson, he is off to a very rough start this season. Gibson has a 7.71 ERA in his two starts this season and also a 5.73 ERA in his last two starts against the Blue Jays. The Toronto lineup is not a great one but they're building confidence as they've shown a knack for getting big hits. That is part of the reason the Jays have averaged 5.3 runs per game their last 6 games. The Twins have averaged 6.6 runs per game their last 5 games. The over is 39-19 when Toronto is a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. The over is 4-1 in Twins night games this season. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |