Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-24-19 | Memphis v. Temple OVER 157.5 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Game of the Week total - Rickenbach CBB Game #609 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Temple Owls vs Memphis Tigers @ 7 ET - The very first total that popped up on this game yesterday afternoon was a 160 and not surprisingly the under starting getting hit and it has dropped as low as a 157.5 this morning. The fact is that this total may seem too big but Temple is at home and is going to get big points here but the problem is they are one of the worst teams in the AAC in a number of defensive categories. One they do excel in is steals which of course leads to a lot of transition points. However, a gambling mentality on defense (going for those steals) also can lead to open looks and easy scoring opportunities for the opposition when Temple fails to get the steal. Facing a Memphis team that is the top scoring team in the AAC means this game is going to be played with a great tempo for over players. The Tigers are averaging 84 points per game this season. The Owls are a 5 point favorite here. If Memphis hits their average and Temple wins by the margin the odds maker is suggesting you've got an 89-84 game that crushes the posted total by 15 points here. In other words, we've got some value here with this total in my opinion. The Tigers love to play up tempo basketball and the Owls will be happy to oblige on their home floor. Temple, prior to their 77-70 loss to Penn, had scored over 80 points in 4 of their last 6 home games. Memphis, other than neutral court games, has scored at least 76 points in every single game this season! That is another way to look at this total too. If the Tigers hit that mark of 76 (they've never failed to at home or in a true road game this season) and the Owls win by 5, you're already at 157 points here. Again, you can see why I am liking the value here in a game that many will perceive to have "too high" of a total. Memphis is 8-4 to the over this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Owls, since the calendar turned the page to 2019, have gone a perfect 6-0 to the over. Look for 7 straight here! 10* OVER the total in Temple |
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01-24-19 | Oakland v. IUPU-Indianapolis OVER 151.5 | 71-73 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Thursday 8* OVER the total in IUPUI Jaguars vs Oakland Golden Grizzlies @ 11 AM ET - The Golden Grizzlies are allowing 81.6 ppg on the road this season. The Jaguars are scoring 86.2 ppg at home this season. Can we expect IUPUI might get to 84 points here based on those numbers? Yes. The current line on this game is right around a -3 for the Jags. Can we expect Oakland might put up 81? You bet! That's 165 points and that is well above the current total posted on this game. The point is that even if these teams fall short of expectations here in the scoring department, we've still got a great shot at cashing this. Both teams very content in looking for quick buckets and neither team's defense has been a strength this season. In other words a run and gun type game is quite likely in this one. The over is a long-term 46-26 in Jaguars home games and that includes 5-1 this season! The Golden Grizzlies last two road games stayed under the total but those games each totaled at least 150 points. In other words, they barely fell short and note that, prior to this, Oakland was on a 5-1 run to the over in their last 6 road games. You can why plenty of points are expected in this one. 8* OVER the total in IUPUI |
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01-23-19 | Tennessee -8.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 88-83 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #803 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers @ Vanderbilt Commodores @ 7 ET - Tennessee opened up favored by about a dozen points here. The line has dropped all the way down to as low as an 8.5 this morning as Vanderbilt is getting plenty of attention here as a home dog against their biggest rival and a foe that is currently the #1 team in the country! I also understand that the Commodores have defeated the Volunteers the last two times they have faced them in Nashville. Additionally, I am aware of the fact that the last time Tennessee rose to a #1 ranking their next game was at Vanderbilt and they lost! This was in 2018 but the Commodores were a #18 ranked team that season. This team is much weaker this season especially because their offense is having all sorts of issues without point guard Darius Garland (out for the season). Vandy is not shooting well at all and they are a young team that makes many mistakes. Conversely, Tennessee was on fire from the field before not shooting well in their tight win over the Crimson Tide Saturday. However, the Vols blew a 15 points lead against Alabama in that game so it is not as if it was a tight game all the way. Plus you saw that the Tide are a solid team after they thrashed a ranked Ole Miss team last night. After already having had their "scare" against the Crimson Tide and also being plenty wary of the Commodores, I look for the Volunteers to roll on the road in this one. The Vols are the much more experienced team and they are the much better team offensively. Vandy simply won't be able to keep up here. In terms of technical support, the Volunteers are 18-9 ATS in road games including a perfect 3-0 this season. Vanderbilt is 3-7 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record and also a long-term 2-7 ATS when off a game in which they scored 60 points or less. 10* TENNESSEE |
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01-23-19 | Providence +3.5 v. Xavier | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #781 Wednesday 8* Providence Friars (+) @ Xavier Musketeers @ 6:30 ET - Revenge has its spots in sports betting that is for sure. However, it tends to be one of the most over-played and over-used factors. That said, this appears to be one of those cases. Yes the Friars knocked the Musketeers out of the Big East Tournament last March. However, the fact is that Xavier is a bit down this season while Providence is arguably the better team this season. Yes I know the Friars have struggled of late but this is the perfect spot to "get healthy" with an upset win on the road and don't let the low line on the Musketeers fool you here. Xavier is just 2-3 SU in their last 5 games and one of those victories came by just a single point. Providence has faced a very tough schedule of late which has led to their 1-4 SU run. However, if not for the difference in 3-point shooting results in their game at Marquette Sunday, the Friars would have gotten the upset win. The fact is the Musketeers 3-point shooting has been awful and I look for Xavier to struggle badly in trying to stop Alpha Diallo and the Friars forward will be the best player on the floor in this game and lead the road team to victory. If they do fall short it will be by just a single possession in my opinion so grab the points in this one. 8* PROVIDENCE |
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01-22-19 | Villanova +1.5 v. Butler | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Tuesday 8* Villanova Wildcats (+) @ Butler Bulldogs @ 7 ET - The Wildcats have been relying heavily on a couple key players but that is where the scheduling situation here favors them. While Butler did have two days off leading into this game and has two days off after it, Villanova's scheduling situation is even better. They have been off for 3 days heading into this game and also have 4 full off days after this game. That means Wildcats coach Jay Wright has no limits with how much he plays his top guys in this one. Villanova is 12-2 SU in their last 14 games and the only two defeats came by just 3 points each. Suffice to say the Wildcats are a tough team to beat and I like having the dog in this match-up. Yes this is a revenge game for the Bulldogs considering Nova knocked them out of the Big East tourney last year. However, Villanova has lost their last two visits to Butler (including last season) and they are looking for road payback here. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games away from home. Butler has won just 3 of its last 12 games SU versus the Cats. Look for the dog to prove they're still the team to beat in the Big East! 8* VILLANOVA |
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01-22-19 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky OVER 144.5 | Top | 55-76 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Week total - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kentucky Wildcats vs Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 7 ET - Two very talented teams matched up here and they are loaded with balanced scoring. I don't see the Bulldogs as being able to slow down the Wildcats scorers at Kentucky. In fact the over is 5-0 in Mississippi State's last 5 road games at Kentucky. Though the Bulldogs won't be able to stop the Cats here, note that Mississippi State ranks 2nd in the SEC for number of 3-pointers made this season. Both of these teams have been lighting it up overall from the floor as well as from beyond the arc. Kentucky is averaging 80 points per game and the Bulldogs are averaging 79 points per game this season. Yes there will be some defensive intensity in this key SEC battle but note that this can also lead to turnovers and quick transition points and both of these teams have been lethal at making teams pay for mistakes. Overall, Mississippi State enters this game having gone 4-1 to the over in their last 5 games. Another key factor here is that the spread on this game has the Wildcats favored by about a half dozen points. This game is indeed likely to be quite close late and that means plenty of late fouls and trips the free throw line could result as the trailing team won't give up without a fight. Again, the ability of each team to knock down threes will also be key at that late stage in the game should we need "scramble points" like this in the final minutes. 10* OVER the total in Kentucky |
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01-21-19 | Nebraska v. Rutgers OVER 134.5 | Top | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #857 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 8 ET - I lost with Nebraska on Thursday when their much improved offense fell short against the stifling defense of Michigan State. After that result, I had a strong feeling I would be involved with the Cornhuskers again in their very next game and, sure enough, we've got great value here. The value in this one lies with the total. I know that this series with Rutgers has a recent history of staying under the total but Nebraska is going to have a breakout game on offense in this one but I am not about to lay a double digit spread on the road. This is one of those solid situations for an over as the road team is the superior team and highly motivated off a loss while the lesser team is at home where, as usual, most poor teams tend to score better. Rutgers will "get theirs" tonight but they're not going to be able to stop a Nebraska team that is averaging 77.7 points per game this season. Keep mind, the Scarlet Knights defense has not been as strong this season as it was last year and they're giving up a higher percentage on outside shots. The over is 3-0 this season when Nebraska is off a Big Ten loss. Prior to the Huskers ugly effort on offense versus the Spartans, they had shot 44% or better from the field in 12 straight games! The over was 5-1 this season in Rutgers Big Ten games before their low-scoring home loss to Northwestern. Including the loss to the Wildcats, the Scarlet Knights are allowing 75 points per game in Big Ten action this season. The Knights do shoot a little better when at home, the game versus Northwestern an exception, but they've also been getting lit up from beyond the arc and, overall, allowed 48% or higher from the field in 3 of their 4 games prior to the loss to the Wildcats. Look for the Huskers to get a big lead in this game and, because of being off a loss, they'll keep their foot on the gas but it is also natural to relax on defense with a big lead. The result should be a game that gets well into the 140s. 10* OVER the total in Rutgers |
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01-20-19 | Florida State v. Boston College OVER 147 | Top | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #817 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston College Eagles vs Florida State Seminoles @ Noon ET - The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. I also like having the lesser team, Boston College, at home in a situation like this. The Eagles should be able to score well since they're on their home floor but they have very little chance of slowing down the Seminoles in this one. That's because Boston College is a weak team defensively and Florida State enters this game off a loss and looking for a breakout game offensively. The Noles have faced tough match-ups recently at Pittsburgh, versus Duke, and at Virginia. Now the Seminoles can take advantage of facing a weaker foe with weaker defense. The over is 4-1 in Boston College's last 5 games. Also, the Eagles are 12-3 to the over when they enter game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Overall, BC is on a long-term run of 25-10 to the over in home games. Florida State found it tough to score this season in only 3 games: at Pittsburgh, at Virginia, and on a neutral floor versus Villanova. In their other 14 games this season the Seminoles have averaged 82 points per game this season. They are a 7 point favorite. In other words if FSU scores like they normally do and the odds makers is right about the spread you have yourself an 82-75 type game which means this one should fly over by double digits. I'll take it. 10* OVER the total in Boston College |
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01-19-19 | Virginia v. Duke OVER 136.5 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
ESPN Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 6 ET - Once again the odds makers made a HUGE mistake, right? You guys know how I feel about the odds makers. Tremendous respect for the quality numbers they put out on games. That said, the last two meetings between these teams totaled just 120 points and 128 points. Yet, even though the Blue Devils also lost point guard Tre Jones to injury in their most recent game, this total opened up at a 140! The odds makers really screwed up, right? Hardly! The fact is people don't fully think about such things and Jones, even as described by his head coach, is a "defensive catalyst". On the flip side, in terms of offensive production, Duke is expected to have Cam Reddish back for this game and of course the Blue Devils are loaded with great offensive production including freshmen RJ Barrett (23.4 ppg) and Zion Williamson (21.2 ppg) - the two leading scorers in the ACC. Well aware of the Cavaliers defensive prowess but the Blue Devils have still averaged 64 points per game in their last two games against Virginia. Also, playing with home loss revenge from last season and arguably as dynamic as their offense has been this season, I look for the Blue Devils to get into the 70s in this one and Virginia will be right there with them! The Cavs are undefeated this season thanks, in part, to an offense that has averaged 74 points per game thus far. Look for the over to improve to 3-1 in Virginia's ACC games this season. The Blue Devils are 13-6 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Duke |
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01-19-19 | Indiana v. Purdue OVER 143 | 55-70 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #633 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Purdue Boilermakers vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 2 ET - The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams at Purdue. Also, the Boilermakers are averaging 83 points in home games this season and are loaded with confidence right now after their most recent road game (OT win at Wisconsin) was followed by a dominating home win over Rutgers. That is how young players grow in confidence and the shots really start falling well when teams are "in the zone" like Purdue is right now. They are on fire but they're facing a very talented rival in the form of Indiana on Saturday afternoon and I expect a shootout here. The Boilermakers certainly aren't known for defense as a strength and they catch the Hoosiers off a frustrating loss at Nebraska where they were stifled by the Cornhuskers zone defense. Now Indiana will "cut loose" against a Purdue team that is certainly more than willing to run and gun and, as noted above, a shootout results and for the 5th straight time in Hoosiers games at Purdue, an over results. The Boilermakers are off the aforementioned dominating win over the Scarlet Knights but the over is 15-8 when Purdue is off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less and that includes 3 of 4 having gone over this season! Overall, when the Boilermakers are a favorite they are 8-3 to the over their last 11 games. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Purdue |
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01-18-19 | Maryland +3 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #851 Friday 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins (+) @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 6:30 ET - This is a match-up of two teams going opposite directions and that means it is not going to be easy for the Buckeyes to turn things around. The Terrapins have been down big early in games and still found a way to win. Maryland has also had huge leads in games and then blown it in the 2nd half and still found a way to win. That is how a young team builds character and this Terps team is proving they are the real deal. They are 15-3 on the season and the 3 losses ALL came by 5 points or less. In other words there is no way to look at this match-up other than the fact that Maryland will, worst case scenario, be a threat to cover in the final minutes. However, I foresee them actually winning this game outright rather handily. The Buckeyes are struggling to find the right floor combinations with their players and the result has been ugly and confidence is now shaken after 3 straight losses. Granted Ohio State faced some tough competition but Maryland has also played just as tough of a schedule this season. Additionally, the "kicker" for me with this play is that the Terrapins got blasted by 22 points in last season's meeting. How did that happen? The Buckeyes outscored the Terps by 27 points from three point land because they made a ridiculous 58.6% of their three pointers. Of course had that not happened Ohio State loses the game by 5 points. You can see where I am going with this and the point is the Buckeyes are so discombobulated right now they truly are not functioning well enough to have some huge shooting game here. They are a mess. Ohio State is on an 0-3 SU run and 0-4 ATS run. Maryland has won 6 straight games SU. The Terrapins are set to improve to 5-0 ATS in road games this season while the Buckeyes shooting woes are unlikely to improve after a long layoff. From a technical standpoint that factor is also supported by this: Ohio State is 0-6 ATS when they enter a game with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The road dog is barking loudly in this one and Coach Mark Turgeon gets revenge after his Terps were embarrassed here in Columbus by the Buckeyes and Coach Chris Holtmann in his first year with Ohio State last season. Payback time and the set up and current momentum of these teams make it an ideal situation. 10* MARYLAND |
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01-17-19 | Michigan State v. Nebraska +2.5 | Top | 70-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #634 Thursday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 8 ET - When the betting masses have the opportunity to take one of the top ranked teams in the nation at nearly a pick'em price against an unranked foe, they tend to jump all over it. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side in a situation like this and taking advantage of the extra value offered by the line move in a spot like this. One of the big keys here is that Michigan State is still without guard Joshua Langord and another key player, guard Kyle Ahrens may be out again for this game or, at the very least, limited. That said the Cornhuskers are likely to hold a key edge in the backcourt in this match-up as they have big guards and have a size edge over the Spartans. This is especially true given the current injury situation in the Michigan State backcourt. In terms of some technical value here: the Spartans, versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games, have gone 5-8 ATS the past two seasons. The Huskers, versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games, have gone 8-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons. The Cornhuskers have won 20 straight games at home and Michigan State is facing the tough task of trying to win back to back road games and are now facing the stingiest D (60.8 ppg) in the Big Ten other than Michigan. Look for the home dog to get the upset in this one. 10* NEBRASKA |
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01-16-19 | Iowa v. Penn State OVER 140 | Top | 89-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Month Total - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Penn State Nittany Lions vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 7 ET - We're getting line value here for a couple of key reasons. One is that the Hawkeyes Tyler Cook is likely a game-time decision and he leads the team in points and rebounds. I expect him to play but, even if he doesn't, Ryan Kriener has been playing much more recently and has now averaged double figures in 3 of his last 4 games. Iowa is averaging 81.7 points per game this season and has plenty of firepower. The other reason we've seen the posted total on this game drop (and another reason we're getting line value) is because the Nittany Lions have been in a scoring slump in Big Ten play. For one thing their games have included Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State. Those are 3 of the tougher defenses to face in the conference. Certainly Iowa does not fit into that category and note that Penn State coach Pat Chambers even said he wants to play fast and he wants to see his team scoring 70+ points per game like it often did last season. Considering that fact as well as this game being at home and facing another team that also doesn't mind playing fast, I am expecting plenty of points in this one. The over is 3-0 when Iowa's line ranges from pick to +3 and also the over is 9-3 when the Hawkeyes line ranges from pick to -3. You can see we're in that sweet spot here and the over is also on a 16-6 run in Iowa's January games. The over is 11-6 when Penn State, in game 15 or later in a season, is facing a team that averages 77 points or more per game. Also, the Nittany Lions Wednesday games are 10-4 to the over. 10* OVER in Penn State |
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01-15-19 | Seton Hall +2 v. Providence | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB #601 Tuesday 10* Top Play Seton Hall Pirates (+) @ Providence Friars @ 6:30 ET - This line opened up at a pick'em and it is also a revenge game for the Friars. That said, it comes as no surprise that bettors jumped on Providence at home and the line is now up to a -2 on the Friars. I am happy to grab the extra value with another contrarian play. The key here is that Providence has had trouble with their shooting and that is why they sorely miss freshman phenom (and 2nd leading scorer) AJ Reeves. The Friars have now lost 3 straight games and are coming off a heart-breaking double-OT loss at Georgetown. Of course those types of defeats are very tough to bounce back from. Also, Providence is starting to develop a "losers mentality" as that is what happens when you lose 3 straight tight games in conference action and you're missing one of your best players. Seton Hall will pounce on this and be very aggressive and take advantage tonight. Keep in mind, the Pirates have thrived in situations like this. Seton Hall is a perfect 6-0 ATS in games with a line ranging from pick'em to +3 and all 6 wins were outright upsets! As for the Friars, they've gone 4-8 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. That includes Providence going 1-3 ATS this season when in that situation. The teams are roughly equivalent on the defensive end but the Pirates hold the edge on the offensive end as the Friars continue to struggle with consistency on the offensive end as they continue to adjust to life without Reeves. He will be back but not yet! Seton Hall is off a loss and they haven't lost back to back games since mid-November. By the way, the Pirates last 4 losses have come by average margin of just 3 points. The points could come in handy here but I fully expect an outright win as the Pirates bounce back off a defeat. 10* SETON HALL |
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01-14-19 | Nebraska +3 v. Indiana | Top | 66-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #865 Monday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) @ Indiana Hoosiers @ 6:30 ET - The very first lines that popped up on this game offshore Sunday afternoon had Hoosiers -1 and, not surprisingly, the betting masses jumped on Indiana at home and this line is now up to as high as a -3 as of early Monday morning. Of course I am contrarian and grabbing the road dog here. This game was priced this way originally with good reason as the Cornhuskers are the better team. I am well aware of the fact that the Hoosiers have been strong at home and the Huskers have had some struggles on the road. However, this is not going to go on forever and Nebraska is going to make a statement in this game. The Cornhuskers have beaten the Hoosiers in each of the last two meetings. Also, Nebraska is 15-8 ATS as a road underdog or pick in recent seasons. The Huskers did win at Oklahoma State and Clemson and lost by just 2 points at Maryland. Indiana has been strong at home this season but, keep in mind, the Hoosiers won by just 2 points versus Northwestern and only 1 point versus Louisville. Indiana is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games but 4 of those 7 wins have come by 3 or less points. Again, there is value with having the dog here in an game in which Nebraska (preseason projections just behind Michigan State and Michigan in the Big Ten) has a great shot at the upset. The Hoosiers are just 4-8 ATS in recent seasons in games versus good defensive teams (allowing 64 points or less per game). 10* NEBRASKA |
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01-13-19 | Michigan State v. Penn State +8.5 | Top | 71-56 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #836 Sunday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 4:30 ET - The Nittany Lions are a much better team than their record shows. That said, there is great home dog value here with Penn State. After getting blown out by Wisconsin, PSU responded with a strong effort at Nebraska. Keep in mind, the Lions have been very competitive in nearly all their defeats this season except for the Badgers game. That said, though the Spartans have continue to play great even with Joshua Langford out, this is going to be a hard-fought game Sunday. The Nittany Lions are desperate for a Big Ten win and the home crowd will be ready for hosting one of the top teams in the nation. Will be a great atmosphere for Penn State to excel and they are well-coached under Patrick Chambers. Also note that Langord's back-up, junior Kyle Ahrens, is also dealing with an injury right now. The Spartans have been great at the betting window this season but went just 6-12 ATS in road games the prior two seasons and they are over-priced here. The Nittany Lions are 11-5 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games in a season. Technical and situational value here with the home dog. 10* PENN STATE |
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01-13-19 | Villanova v. Creighton OVER 149.5 | 90-78 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #831 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Creighton Bluejays vs Villanova Wildcats @ Noon ET - As per usual, the Bluejays are known for their three point shooting ability and that has been particularly evident when on their home floor. Creighton is making nearly 50% of their three pointers on their home floor. That said, the Bluejays also again are known for lack of defense. If this game was at Villanova I wouldn't like the total as much because Creighton sometimes struggles with their shooting away from home. But with the Bluejays as the host I expect Creighton to score plenty here. The issue for them will be stopping the Wildcats and that is why I foresee this game flying over the total. Both meetings between these teams went over the total last season and Villanova is a long-term 20-7 in road games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. In road games this season the Wildcats are 3-1 to the over. The Bluejays are 4-1 to the over this season when off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. More of the same expected here! 8* OVER the total in Creighton |
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01-12-19 | Drexel +4 v. NC-Wilmington | Top | 83-97 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #649 Saturday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons (+) @ NC-Wilmington Seahawks @ 2 ET - This line is going to look a little "off" to those that don't follow college hoops very closely. I say that because the Seahawks have hammered the Dragons by a double digit margin in each of the last two meetings at NC-Wilmington. That said, many may feel it is a mistake that the Seahawks are priced so low here on their home floor but there is much more than meets the eye here. First off Drexel has enough size and bulk in the middle to help counter the Seahawks top weapon Davontae Cacock. Additionally, the Dragons just welcomed back point guard Kurk Lee. He was one of their top players last season and in addition to returning starters Alihan Demir and senior guard Troy Harper, Drexel has seen others step up while Lee has been out. Trevor John, Camren Wynter, and James Butler are combining to contribute 33 points per game. That said, Lee and Demir and Harper are all guys that can contribute 15 points a night. The Dragons are still flying "under the radar" right now but are truly the better team in this match-up as the Seahawks have been "on the fade" this season. In terms of technical support, the Dragons are 6-2 ATS in games with a posted total in the 160s. Also, Drexel has gone 3-1 SU and ATS this season in games against teams with a losing record. NC-Wilmington is 2-5 ATS in home games with a posted total in the 160s. Also, the Seahawks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against teams that allow 77 points or more per game. In a game projected to be a shootout, you can see why the situation favors the road dog. 10* DREXEL |
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01-12-19 | Ole Miss +6 v. Mississippi State | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #623 Saturday 8* Ole Miss Rebels (+) @ Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 1 ET - Winning changes everything. Ole Miss brought in Kermit Davis as their new head coach for this season but the Rebels (off a 12-20 season including 5-13 in SEC action) were still projected to be the worst team in the SEC this season. Of course off a bad year change was needed at Ole Miss and thanks to constant winning and returning a number of key players from last season's team has completely rejuvenated this program. That said, the Rebels certainly are going to be more than ready for this match-up with rival Mississippi State as the Bulldogs are ranked and of course it is not as if Ole Miss needed any additional motivation. These teams are fierce rivals and Ole Miss had held the upper hand in recent meetings but Mississippi State crushed them by 17 in their most recent meeting here. That said, payback is on order and, while it will be tough for the Rebels to win outright over the Bulldogs on the road, it is also is tough not to imagine this game being very tight and decided by just a bucket or two. Ole Miss enters this game on a red hot winning streak, SU and ATS. In terms of technical support for this play the Rebels are 13-1 ATS this season. Also, Ole Miss is 13-5 ATS long-term in a road game where the total is 150 to 154.5 points. The Rebels are also on a 13-6 ATS run in January games. The Bulldogs defense has not been at the level of the Rebels and Mississippi State has allowed more than 80 points in 3 of their last 4 games. To put that in proper perspective, note that Ole Miss has allowed 74 points or less in 12 of their 14 games this season! Look for the Bulldogs to drop to 0-3 ATS on the season when they are off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. 10* OLE MISS |
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01-11-19 | Wright State v. Northern Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #804 Northern Kentucky Norse (-) vs Wright State Raiders @ 7 ET - This is the only home game for the Norse between December 30th and January 24th. There is no doubt that Northern Kentucky wants to take advantage of this opportunity and who better to welcome to town than Wright State. The Norse have big-time revenge on their minds here as they won the regular season title in the Horizon League last season but they lost both games against the Raiders. They want payback here and I like the added line value here with this line dropping as of early game day morning. We can lay a rather small number to have the better defense and the home team in this match-up. Northern Kentucky has held opponents to 39.6% from the field this season while Wright State has allowed 46.3% from the field so far this season. Keep in mind, this is even with playing very similar early season schedules. Also, from 3-point land the Norse are allowing just 28.7% while the Raiders are allowing 39.5% from beyond the arc! Wright State is 1-5 SU (and 2-4 ATS) in road games this season. The Norse are 30-4 SU (and 23-11 ATS) in games the past 2+ seasons against teams with a losing record. 10* NORTHERN KENTUCKY |
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01-10-19 | Cincinnati v. Tulsa +6 | Top | 70-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #612 Thursday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7 ET - Home court means a lot in this match-up. More on that in a moment but first off the motivation factor. Two years ago the Golden Hurricane got crushed by the Bearcats in the AAC Tourney by a score of 80-61. As a result, the rematch last season at Cincinnati was a revenge game for Tulsa and the Golden Hurricane did play very well in that game and actually led at the half. However, the Bearcats ultimately prevailed by an 8 point margin but that was thanks to an absolutely insane shooting performance from 3-point land. Cincy made 15 of 22 (68.3%) three-pointers! Of course that is not happening again this season and this time the teams are meeting at Tulsa. I like the fact that the Golden Hurricane returned some key cogs from last season's team plus are getting some key contributions from unexpected sources so far this season. They have looked stronger than expected early this season and the Golden Hurricane are 9-0 SU in home games! The Bearcats are 0-3 ATS in true road games this season and 2 of of those were outright losses. I am expecting another one here but am grabbing the points with Tulsa as added insurance. Long-term Cincinnati is on a 1-4 ATS run in road games with a total in a range between 130 and 134.5 points. The Golden Hurricane are 3-1 ATS as home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points and all 3 wins were outright upsets! This will be a hard-fought battle where having the points is truly invaluable. The Golden Hurricane want this game badly and have the talent to get it on their home floor. If they fall short, I expect it to be by the slimmest of the margins and that means we still cash our ticket! 10* TULSA |
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01-09-19 | Houston v. Temple +1.5 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #788 Wednesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) vs Houston Cougars @ 7 ET - As long-time followers know I love to go contrarian and if you looked up contrarian in a sports betting dictionary that included an example, this game would be the perfect example. The Cougars are 15-0 this season and ranked. So the odds makers opened this game at very nearly a "pick'em" even though Houston still has not lost a game this season. Now, do you really think the odds makers are stupid? Of course they are not! They know, just as well as sharps like me know, this is a great spot for the Cougars to lose their first game. So while the masses are likely to back Houston as "they can't lose...they're undefeated, etc" the sharp money (including mine) is on the Owls. Why Temple? First off a road trip to Philly is NOT easy for Houston but certainly they made it look easy last year when EVERYTHING went their way and NOTHING went Temple's way in a blowout win by 21 points in February. The Owls haven't forgotten that home beatdown. Additionally, though Temple is "only" 11-3 this season while Houston is a sparkling 15-0, the Owls have played a much tougher early season schedule. That pays off BIG in this game and the home court helps key the win! The Cougars are 2-0 SU in road games this season but went just 12-10 SU away from home the past two seasons. The Owls are a solid 21-11 SU in lined home games the past 2+ seasons and that includes 5-0 SU this season. Give me a highly motivated home dog that is eager to give a conference foe the first blemish on their record this season. 10* TEMPLE |
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01-09-19 | Vanderbilt +2.5 v. Georgia | 63-82 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #781 Wednesday 8* Vanderbilt Commodores (+) @ Georgia Bulldogs @ 6:30 ET - This is a revenge game for the Commodores as they were knocked out of the SEC Tournament by the Bulldogs in March. Georgia enters this game after getting absolutely demolished by Tennessee. To say the Bulldogs confidence is shaken now heading into conference action is a major understatement after they failed their first test by a mile. While the Commodores are also off an SEC loss, it was a much more respectable one and certainly they might even have been peeking ahead at this revenge opportunity. Also, Vandy does have Kentucky on deck so they that to avoid a likely 0-3 start to SEC action, a win at Georgia Wednesday is critical as certainly knocking off the Wildcats is highly unlikely. This is one of those early season situations I love in conference action as Georgia is 9-4 ATS this season while Vanderbilt is 5-8 ATS this season. As a result there is some extra value baked into this line because of non-conference performance at the betting window when the reality is that the Bulldogs were projected to be one of the worst teams in the SEC this season. The Commodores are 4-2 SU and ATS when their line ranges from a pick'em to +3 in a road game. The Bulldogs drop to 2-5 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Look for a road upset in this one but grab the points for added insurance. 8* VANDERBILT |
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01-08-19 | St. John's v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 71-76 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #626 Tuesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs St John's Red Storm @ 7 ET - The Red Storm are off to a great start this season and are ranked. However, they are now in the wrong place at the wrong time. Keep in mind, St John's (14-1) has played a much weaker schedule than Villanova (11-4) so far this season. Also, the Wildcats (accustomed to being the top team in the Big East) are now unranked while the Red Storm are ranked! Give credit to St John's for their strong start to this season for sure. However, Villanova not only is more battle-tested (long-term and this season due to tougher schedule), the Wildcats also have big-time revenge here. Last season in February Villanova lost at home to St John's as a 16 point home favorite. Suffice to say payback is on their minds here. The Red Storm simply had a great shooting night and also caught the Cats in a situation where they were back on the heels. Tuesday you can back on Nova being the team that is putting their opponent back on their heels! The Red Storm have gone just 14-23 ATS (including 2-5 ATS this season) in games with a posted total in the 140s and they simply won't be able to keep up with the revenge-minded Wildcats in this one. Villanova improves to 8-4 SU and ATS in games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the Wildcats are a long-term 35-8 SU and 29-14 ATS in games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. 10* VILLANOVA |
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01-06-19 | Memphis +9 v. Houston | Top | 77-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #823 Sunday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (+) @ Houston Cougars @ 6 ET - Long-time followers know I love seeking spots like this. The Cougars are a ranked team and undefeated while the Tigers are only 9-5 on the season and on the road here catching only single digits. Many will back an undefeated team in a spot like this but there are important keys as to why the Tigers are going to be a "tough out" for the Cougars. First off, Memphis has played a tougher schedule than Houston this season. Also, a key to winning on the road when the conference schedule rolls around is having a veteran team and being battle tested. The Tigers fit the bill in both regards. They returned their top four scorers from last season and all are now seniors. Additionally there is tremendous positive energy with this program as they brought in former NBA star Penny Hardaway at head coach and brought in a new influx of playing talent this season that already has led to some key contributions from new sources for Memphis. The Tigers losses this season have included LSU, Tennessee, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. That is not exactly a slate of cupcakes and those experiences will serve the Tigers well in their first key conference battle of the new season. Note that Memphis is already 6-3 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Cougars do play great defense but the Tigers have the veteran skilled players to break down a defense like this. In fact, Memphis is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with Houston and the lone loss came by just a single point. The Cougars are NOT shooting the ball well at ll this season and it will tough for them to build a significant margin here against a senior-laded Tigers team viewing this game as one of their BIGGEST of the season. 10* MEMPHIS |
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01-05-19 | Kansas State +12 v. Texas Tech | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #645 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas State Wildcats (+) @ Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 2 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Wildcats, already without Dean Wade, have another senior (Kamau Stokes) listed as doubtful for this game. However, this is a horrible scheduling spot for the Red Raiders and a huge situational edge for Kansas State. While the Wildcats are off an embarrassing loss at Texas, the Red Raiders enter this game off a hard-fought road win at West Virginia. Also, Texas Tech has a huge game with Oklahoma on deck. In other words this is truly a sandwich game and flat spot for the Red Raiders. Additionally, the Wildcats have revenge on their mind as they were blown out by Texas Tech in both games last season. I like the talent on this Kansas State team and, right now, the Red Raiders continue to be over-valued. As a result, we can get a dozen points with the Wildcats in a game that is projected to be very low-scoring (posted total opened up in the 115 range!). With points at a premium in this one and the hungry and motivated defense ready to turn up the heat on defense, this game will be much closer than many are expecting. By the way, Texas Tech is on a 6-12 ATS run in January games. The Wildcats are a long-term 4-1 ATS in games with a posted total of 119.5 points or less. Give me the big dog in this one. 10* KANSAS STATE |
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01-04-19 | SMU v. Tulane OVER 139 | Top | 74-65 | Push | 0 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tulane Green Wave vs SMU Mustangs @ 7 ET - This is the perfect set up for a high-scoring game. Though Tulane has not shot well lately, they are finally back home and that is a key here! The Green Wave have shot 49.2% from the field (including 39.2% from 3-point land) in their home games this season. However, SMU is nearly a double digit favorite here with good reason. The Mustangs are the much stronger overall team and they have revenge on their minds too. That is a big help when playing an over because SMU won't hesitate to run up the score here given the chance. Last season the Mustangs had a 7 point lead at the half but then got outscored by double digits in the second half and lost. It is payback time here for SMU but I do expect the Green Wave to also have a huge scoring night as they hang within single digits for much of this game. In terms of technical support, Tulane is 5-1 to the over in games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the Green Wave have gone 15-4 to the over when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more consecutive SU losses. The Mustangs are 7-3 to the over this season in games in which they are the favorite. Also, SMU is on a 14-5 run to the over in games against teams with a losing record. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Tulane |
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01-03-19 | NC State v. Miami-FL +3.5 | Top | 87-82 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #612 Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes (+) vs NC State Wolfpack @ 7 ET - The Wolfpack are a ranked team that is 12-1 on the season and, as such, they are very popular in the betting markets as they opened up as a very small favorite here. In typical contrarian fashion I'll take advantage of the line value on the other side as there has already been a move toward NC State early this morning and it has led to solid home dog value with Miami. The lone loss that the Wolfpack has this season was in their only true road game. 10 of their 13 games have been at home and two were neutral site games. The only road game was against the Badgers in Madison, WI. Not only did NC State lead that game by 7 at the half, there will still up by 8 with about 7 minutes to go! From that point on Wisconsin outscored them by a dozen points and the Wolfpack fell short. Don't be surprised if tonight plays out in similar fashion. NC State has a 10 man rotation but half of those players are freshmen and sophomores. Miami has a 7-man rotation with truly just 6 key players (at least until Hernandez is eligible to return). This is a detriment when they are on short rest BUT this is NOT a short rest situation. The Hurricanes have fresh legs and they also have won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. The Wolfpack are a long-term 6-14 SU in road games and also have lost 6 of their last 9 visits to Miami. The Canes are a long-term 31-6 SU in home games. NC State is overvalued here because they've been strong SU and ATS this season. The Hurricanes at home are not getting enough respect in this one. I expect an outright upset but am happy to grab the points being offered as extra "insurance" in this one. 10* MIAMI |
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01-02-19 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia +4 | Top | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #794 Wednesday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 7 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Mountaineers are without Sagaba Konate. However, the emergence of 6'10 Derek Culver is not being given enough of a look by the betting markets as early support is on the Red Raiders here. The fact is that Culver, due to suspension, got to the floor for the first time two games ago. Tonight's game, being his 3rd game back and also at home in a key match-up, is likely to see him play his best game yet. I love the fact that the Red Raiders are ranked quite high and have an 11-1 record with their only loss to Duke because it is masking the fact that, other than the loss to the Blue Devils, Texas Tech has played a rather weak schedule. The fact is that West Virginia started the season ranked but is now unranked and only 8-4 on the season but they've played a tougher schedule than Texas Tech has. If this game was in Lubbock it would be a different story but I like West Virginia at home here. Both teams are rather inexperienced this season and have had to reload. Of course when both teams are young it helps to be on your home floor. Also West Virginia is 3-2 SU in their last 5 meetings with the Red Raiders and the Mountaineers two defeats EACH came by just ONE point. Certainly, though I expect an outright upset here, having the points on our side could also prove very valuable. WVU has failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games but that is a situation that has seen them go 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in recent seasons. The Mountaineers are on a 36-6 SU run in home games. Texas Tech is 1-4 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s while the Mountaineers are 7-2 SU their last 9 games with a posted total in the 130s. Also, the Red Raiders are just 5-15 SU in road games and this is their first true road game of the season. All of the previous Texas Tech games this season have been at home or at a neutral site. They are over-rated in my opinion and I fully expect coach Huggins to have his Mountaineers VERY ready for this Big 12 opener at home! Grab the points. 10* WEST VIRGINIA |
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01-01-19 | Marquette v. St. John's OVER 155.5 | Top | 69-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #605 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St John's Red Storm vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 7 ET - This is a contrarian play because many are likely to be looking to the under here considering both of these teams stats make them look improved on defense early this season. The key to the value is that the Red Storm and Golden Eagles have padded their defensive stats by having big games against much weaker teams. For the most part, when St John's and Marquette have stepped up in class and faced tougher competition, they've struggled on the defensive end as per usual. That is noteworthy here because both of these teams are known for their high-scoring ways and I expect that to continue in this one. Both games between these teams last season went over the total and I like the fact that each of the last 4 meetings between these teams totaled at least 158 points. The current total on this game as of early Tuesday morning is as low as a 155.5 in some spots. Note that the over is a long-term 7-3 in Marquette's road games with a posted total between 155 and 159.5 points. Overall in road games it is a long-term 15-6 run to the over for the Golden Eagles. St John's has had just 3 unders in its 12 games subsequent to their season opener. Also, the Red Storm are a perfect 3-0 to the over when they are at home and their line ranges from -3 to a pick'em. 10* OVER the total in St John's |
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12-31-18 | Creighton +1.5 v. Providence | Top | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #753 Monday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (+) @ Providence Friars @ 4 ET - The betting markets will love Providence in basically a "pick'em" game on their home floor. As per usual I am going contrarian here with Creighton and, as per usual, it is not without plenty of good reasoning. The Bluejays seek revenge for getting knocked out of the Big East tournament in March in overtime! It is time for payback here and this is the game where the Friars loss of 2nd leading scorer AJ Reeves to injury will prove significant. Though it is true Providence has won 3 straight since the foot injury for Reeves, teams need all the firepower they can get when facing a team with the offensive prowess the likes of Creighton. The Bluejays are averaging 85 points per game this season and knocking down 45% of their three-pointers! I also like the fact that, long-term, the Friars are just 37-51 ATS in games with a posted total in the 150s and Providence's SU record in those game is an ugly 33-55! Creighton is a long-term 41-21 SU in games with a posted total in a range of 150 to 159.5 points. Though they've struggled away from home in their past two games they did perform very well in late November in a neutral court tournament and they kick things up a notch for the revenge win here as the Bluejays roll to a road rout at Providence on Monday. 10* CREIGHTON |
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12-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago +7.5 v. Wright State | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #811 Friday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Wright State Raiders @ 7 ET - Though the Flames are allowing more points per game than the Raiders this season that has to with pace rather than defensive efficiency. In fact, Illinois-Chicago is allowing only 44.2% from the field including 35.1% from 3-point land while Wright State is allowing 46.3% from the field including 40.7% from beyond the arc. Additionally, the Raiders Loudon Love is listed as questionable for this game with an ankle injury. Wright State did win both games last season but the average margin was just 5.5 points per game and I feel UIC has closed the gap between these teams heading into this meeting. Also note that the Flames are the higher-scoring team and also the better shooting team from the field. Illinois-Chicago is 10-4 ATS in Friday games, 9-2 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games, and 18-8 ATS in games against teams with a losing record. Wright State is only 2-4 SU this season against teams that average 77 points or more per game and the Flames fall into that category. 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO |
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12-25-18 | Hawaii +5 v. Rhode Island | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Tuesday 10* Top Play Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+) vs Rhode Island Rams @ 3:30 ET in Diamond Head Classic @ Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, HI - The Rams are off a win and tight cover versus Charlotte but that comes as no surprise as the 49ers are struggling this season and averaging 58.5 points per game. Rhode Island is 0-3 ATS in road games this season. Though this is a tourney game, since they're facing the host of the tourney in this one, it is a road game. Hawaii is 6-2 SU in home games this season including 4-2 ATS in lined home games. Also, long-term the Rainbow Warriors are 13-6 ATS as a home underdog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Hawaii has played well on the defensive end in their last 3 games and they've gone 2-1 SU and ATS. Overall, the Rainbow Warriors have won 3 of their last 4 games SU. The 49ers are 2-3 ATS their last 5 as a favorite but one of those ATS wins coming by just half a point. The home dog definitely offering value in this one. Look for an upset but grab the points with the Rainbow Warriors as they defend (literally) their home court on the final day of this Christmas weekend tourney. 10* HAWAII |
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12-23-18 | Drake v. San Diego OVER 145 | Top | 110-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #735 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Toreros vs Drake Bulldogs @ 7:30 ET in Las Vegas, NV - The Bulldogs are 4-1 to the over in games with a posted total in the 140s this season. Drake is 22-12 to the over the last 3 seasons combined in games with a posted total in the 140s. The Bulldogs are shooting 48% from the field this season and San Diego is also shooting 48% from the field so far this season. As a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Toreros are 4-1 to the over. In tournament games the past 2+ seasons, San Diego is 4-2 to the over. I like the fact that the Toreros are off win over Washington State and are set for a letdown here while the Bulldogs are off a tight low-scoring loss and should bounce back here. It sets this one to be a back and forth affair with plenty of points in my opinion. 10* OVER the total San Diego |
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12-22-18 | Connecticut v. Villanova -6 | Top | 58-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #608 Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 12:30 ET - The Wildcats are in a great value spot here. Villanova is off back to back losses and, while the loss to Penn certainly wasn't expected, there was no shame in falling just short against Kansas last Saturday. In fact, the Cats cover against the Jayhawks brought Villanova to 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. For Nova, this is their final game of the calendar year as their next game is January 2nd versus DePaul in Big East action. In other words, you can bank on the Wildcats being ready to put forth a huge effort in this game. They are hungry and they don't want to end 2018 having not won a game since the 8th of December! As for Connecticut, they are off back to back wins but those came as a big favorite against both Drexel and Manhattan. The Huskies have played 4 games this season with a line in single digits and they've gone 1-3 SU and ATS in those 4 games. In other words, UConn has struggled in tougher match-ups and note also that the Huskies are 4-9 ATS in neutral court games. The Wildcats are on a 20-8 ATS run (including 3-0 ATS this season) in neutral court games. Grab the value with the rather small favorite in a spot where they are primed to dominate. 10* VILLANOVA |
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12-21-18 | Cal-Irvine v. Butler -8 | Top | 54-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #806 Friday 10* Top Play Butler Bulldogs (-) vs Cal-Irvine Anteaters @ 6:30 ET - With Cal-Irvine at 11-2 on the season and having played a strength of schedule very similar to the 8-3 Bulldogs, many will look at the Anteaters as a big dog value play here. However, a couple of key variables are favoring Butler here. UC-Irvine played Wednesday at Eastern Michigan so they are on short rest here. Also, the Bulldogs recently welcomed Duke transfer Jordan Tucker as he just became eligible. Granted he is not playing huge minutes yet but after scoring 10 points and snaring 7 rebounds in just 12 minutes in Tuesday's game, he certainly is a key asset for Butler to now have available. Butler is known for being a very tough team on their home floor. Also, the Anteaters have been held under 40% from the field in 3 of their last 4 road games. To put that in perspective in this match-up, the Bulldogs come into this game red hot with their shooting. Butler has averaged 80 points per game their last 3 games thanks to hot shooting from the field including from beyond the arc. The Anteaters have been strong defensively this season but the Bulldogs are actually 9-2 (SU and ATS) when facing teams that allow an average of 64 points or less. Not only is UC-Irvine on a 14-21 ATS run against teams with a winning record, it is an 11-27 SU run their last 38! Lay the points and expect a home blowout here. 10* BUTLER |
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12-20-18 | Texas Tech +10 v. Duke | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Thursday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET in New York, NY - The Red Raiders have no chance here! At least that is what the betting markets seem to think and I am happy to fade the masses here. Almighty Duke always gets so much love from bettors but I feel they will fall well short here. Yes the Blue Devils have played the tougher schedule this season and the location of this neutral court game favors Duke but Texas Tech is well-coached and is going to prove to be no push-over. The Red Raiders are playing great defense this season and also are shooting the ball very well on the other end of the court! This line has moved from an opener of 7 all the way up to a 10 and is offering great value on the big dog that, thanks to solid outside shooting, also has a great shot at the backdoor cover here - should that be needed. The Red Raiders are now 15-1 SU in December games the past 3 years. Also, Texas Tech is off to a 10-0 SU start this season that has seen them also go 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. Yes, Duke is one of the best teams in the country again, as per usual, but the Red Raiders are playing with a ton of confidence right now and they are a dangerous dog in this spot. The Blue Devils went 1-2 ATS (and SU!) against Big 12 opponents the past two seasons. Duke also is 0-2 ATS this season when playing with one day or less of rest between games and the Red Raiders certainly hold the rest edge here. 10* TEXAS TECH |
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12-19-18 | Auburn v. NC State +1.5 | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #702 Wednesday 8* NC State Wolfpack (+) vs Auburn Tigers @ 7 ET - The Wolfpack opened as big as a 2.5 point favorite in this one. Now they are moving toward being a 2 point dog here. Why? It is because the Tigers are one of the top ranked teams in the nation so of course the betting markets are jumping all over in Auburn in this match-up. Of course I love to fade the masses in situations like this but certainly it is not without reason. NC State returned some key players from last season's NCAA Tourney team. Additionally, the key early this season is the Wolfpack have gotten plenty of contributions from unexpected sources! These new big contributors have keyed a 9-1 start to the season and I expect home court to be the key edge in this match-up with Auburn. Keep in mind, the Wolfpack are 8-0 SU in home games with a posted total in a range of 155 to 159.5 points. The Tigers are 0-7 ATS in road games with a posted total in a range of 155 to 159.5 points. This is a combined 15-0 edge in favor of the home team in this one and I am going contrarian here and backing the host. 8* NC STATE |
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12-18-18 | Oakland v. Georgia OVER 153 | Top | 69-81 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Month Total - Rickenbach CBB Game #613 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Georgia Bulldogs vs Oakland (Mich) Golden Grizzlies @ 7 ET - The Golden Grizzlies upset the Bulldogs in 2016 by a count of 86-79. Another high-scoring shootout is likely in the rematch. Oakland (Michigan) continues to be an offensive juggernaut that also pays little attention to defense! The Grizzlies are allowing 49.2% from the field including 37.3% from three point land this season. The strength for Oakland, as per usual, is their shooting abilities. The Grizzlies have shot 48.3% from the field this season including 42.7% from beyond the arc and they've been particularly hot in recent games. They catch the Bulldogs in a "sandwich game" between Arizona State and Georgia Tech. In other words, Georgia may not be totally focused on defensive intensity here. As a result, look for a "run and gun" type game here and the Bulldogs should have no trouble putting up a ton of points as they're shooting 48% from the field this season including 35% from three point land! Georgia is averaging 87 points per game in home games this season. Oakland has averaged 84 points per game in their last 3 games and all those games were on the road too. The over is 6-1 when the Golden Grizzlies are a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. The over is 6-0 when Oakland is off a game in which they scored 80 or more points this season. The Bulldogs are 8-3 to the over in games with a posted total in a range of 150 to 159.5 points. More of the same expected here! 10* OVER the total in Georgia |
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12-16-18 | Green Bay v. Michigan State OVER 160.5 | Top | 83-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #733 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Michigan State Spartans vs Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix @ 5 ET - The Spartans are off a hard-fought low-scoring win over Florida. However, they've had a full week off since then and now face "only" Wisconsin-Green Bay and Oakland (Michigan) to wrap up their pre-Christmas schedule. The point is that the Spartans are highly unlikely to put forth a huge effort on the defensive end here. Keep in mind UWGB likes to play very fast but their game at Creighton earlier this week stayed under the total simply because the Phoenix had a rare poor shooting night. Their normal struggles on the defensive end continued in that game and the over is a perfect 4-0 in UWGB's meetings with Michigan State. As for the Spartans, they had averaged 87 points per game in their first 9 games this season before that low scoring win over the Gators. They can get to triple digits here against the Phoenix. As for the UWGB offensive production, they are averaging 85 points per game this season. You can see that the line on this game is in the -25 range on Michigan State and there is no reason they can't get about 100 in this game. Look for a game in the range of 100 to 75 as this one is played very "loose" with plenty of run and gun. The result is a high-scoring game that flies over the total. Not only is the over 4-0 in the last 4 games between these teams, the over is also 4-0 this season when Green Bay is off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. The over is also 3-0 when the Spartans enter a game with 7 or more days of rest between games. Combined 11-0 mark here favors a very high-scoring contest. 10* OVER the total in Michigan State |
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12-15-18 | Cincinnati v. Mississippi State -3 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #646 Saturday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (-) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 8:30 ET - As long-time followers know, I love to go against the grain. That is what my contrarian crusher picks are all about and, in this case, with a line move from -5 to -3 on the Bulldogs, I won't hesitate to step in. Keep in mind, Mississippi State is off an impressive neutral court win over Clemson last week and now they get this game at home against Cincinnati. The Bulldogs have balanced scoring with all 5 scorers averaging in double figures plus they are red hot from three point land. Hot shooting from beyond the arc can sometimes go hold WHEN a team heads on the road or is in an unfamiliar surrounding. As you can see, that should NOT be the case here as this game is at Mississippi State so the Bulldogs should remain RED HOT from outside. Keep in mind this is a revenge game from last season. Though the Bearcats won that game it was at Cincinnati and the Bulldogs were simply done in by poor shooting in the 65-50 loss. Also, gone for Cincy from that team are 3 players who accounted for 49 of the 65 points. All are playing pro ball now with 2 in the NBA and one playing professionally overseas. I also like the coaching edge in the rematch with Ben Howland over Mick Cronin. 10* MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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12-14-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. DePaul OVER 153.5 | 70-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Early Blowout Rout - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Friday 8* OVER the total in DePaul Blue Demons vs Illinois-Chicago Flames @ 7 ET - Though the last time the Blue Demons hosted the Flames the game did stay under the total, the match-up did total 155 points. Additionally, each of the 3 prior meetings at DePaul between these rivals did result in an over. I look for another high-scoring game here as Illinois-Chicago is averaging 80.3 points per game this season but allowing 82.1 points per game. UIC has been hot from three point land this season and the Blue Demons are allowing 35.7% shooting from beyond the arc. Both teams are comfortable playing at a fast pace and UIC is shooting 49% from the field and 38% from 3-point land. The issue for the Flames is they don't play well on the defensive end and the Blue Demons, particularly since they are at home here, will take full advantage. In terms of solid technical support here, there is plenty of it. The Flames are 9-0 to the over in road games with a posted total in a range of 150 to 154.5 points. Illinois-Chicago is also an overall 3-0 to the over this season with games in a posted total range of 150 to 159.5 points. DePaul is 2-0 to the over this season in home games with a posted total in a range of 150 to 154.5 points. Also, the Blue Demons are 2-0 to the over in games against teams that are allowing 77 points or more per game. Taking the combined numbers above this is a 16-0 situation in favor of plenty of points in this one! 8* OVER the total in DePaul |
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12-13-18 | Morehead State v. Samford -7.5 | Top | 72-77 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Thursday 10* Top Play Samford Bulldogs (-) vs Morehead State Eagles @ 7:30 ET - When I saw this game was coming up I knew I would be involved after what I witnessed Monday with Morehead State. The Eagles were down by 20 at half at Marshall and still down by 21 with under 2 minutes to go. I was holding a Thundering Herd ticket at -13. The game should be over. Inexplicably Morehead State finished the game on an 11-2 run to lose by 12. First off when a team is down that much there is no chance of a comeback and so usually the trailing team wouldn't even get off enough shots to even have a chance to score 11 points! It was one of the most unbelievable losses I have been a part of and I have been wagering for over 25 years now. We'll get payback tonight. In lined games, the Eagles have now been held to 36.2% or less from the field in 4 straight games! They are facing a Samford team that plays much better defense than they do. Morehead State is allowing 46.9% from the field this season while the Bulldogs are allowing just 37.9% from the field this season. The Eagles also do not defend the 3-point shot nearly as well as Samford does. The Bulldogs were done in by injuries last season but are well-coached and have bounced right back early this season. Samford is 8-2 on the season and the only losses were to Ohio State and an OT loss to Belmont whom plays in the same Ohio Valley Conference that Morehead State does. But Belmont won 24 games last season while the Eagles won only 8 games! Morehead State is on an 8-13 ATS run in non-conference games while the Bulldogs are 9-0 ATS this season! 10* SAMFORD |
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12-12-18 | Massachusetts v. Temple -8.5 | Top | 63-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #704 Wednesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (-) vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - The set-up here is perfect. The Minutemen are off a tight 1-point outright upset win as a nearly double digit dog at Providence while the Owls are off a 10 point loss to Philly rival Villanova. Temple is absolutely going to bring their "A game" tonight as a result and they also have revenge on their side. When these teams met two years ago UMass got the tight 3-point win at home despite the Owls having a double digit edge in field goal attempts. The point is that Temple just wasn't hitting their shots that night. Now the Owls get a revenge opportunity and it comes on their home floor. Additionally, the Minutemen only have 2 players back that played in that game while the players who logged the majority of the minutes for Temple in that game will be on the floor for this rematch. Massachusetts relies heavily on their 5'11 junior guard Luwane Pipkins and he is a great player. However, the Owls strength is their backcourt play and by containing (or at least limiting) Pipkins in this game, Temple will have a big edge as they are a much more balanced team than the Minutemen are. UMass is prone to turnover issues and the Owls are solid in terms of the turnover to steals ratio. In terms of technical support for this play, the Minutemen are 2-6 ATS this season and continue to be over-valued by the betting markets. Massachusetts is also 5-15 ATS in Wednesday games. The Owls are 12-4 ATS in games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. The key here being that they are much better defensively in comparison with the Minutemen. 10* TEMPLE |
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12-11-18 | Villanova v. Pennsylvania OVER 139 | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pennsylvania Quakers vs Villanova Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Wildcats had one of their worst games on offense Saturday while at the same time having one of their best games of the season on defense. Of course the result was an under and the added result is some extra value with the low total on this game involving the Quakers. Pennsylvania has been shooting the ball very well particularly on their home floor this season. As for Villanova, they've averaged 86 points per game in their last two meetings with Penn. The Quakers are averaging 80 points per game this season. I am well aware of the fact that Pennsylvania has struggled to score well against Nova in recent meetings but this situation is entirely different as, for the most part, the Wildcats have not been as strong on the defensive end early this season. At the same time, the Penn offense has been a real positive early this season with hot outside shooting leading the way. The over is a long-term 17-6 when Villanova is a road favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. The over is a long-term 13-7 in Penn's games against Big East opponents and also the Quakers are a perfect 3-0 to the over in home games this season. 10* OVER the total in Pennsylvania |
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12-10-18 | Morehead State v. Marshall -13 | Top | 64-76 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #880 Monday 10* Top Play Marshall Thundering Herd (-) vs Morehead State Eagles @ 7 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Thundering Herd are off of an OT loss on Saturday and are on short rest here. However, I would argue that their scheduling situation is much better than that of the Eagles here. Morehead State has not played yet in December and is likely to be rusty. The Eagles also are walking right into a hornets nest tonight. Marshall is seeking revenge for a loss at Morehead State last season. I know the points are fairly big here but the Thundering Herd were 4-0 at home this season before the loss to Toledo Saturday and each of their last 3 home wins have come by a margin of at least 20 points. Both these teams like to play at a fast pace and with "run and gun" being the story here, the team that is NOT rusty and that is also at home and that is also playing with revenge certainly holds a large edge. Keep in mind Marshall was a pleasant surprise last season and even got a big upset win in the Big Dance too last spring. Though the Thundering Herd have underachieved early this season, this is the perfect spot for them to get on track as they take advantage of facing an Ohio Valley Conference foe that had lost 3 straight games (all by 17 or more) before blowing out a very small basketball program - Chillicothe - in their final game of November. Another key to just how much emphasis Marshall is placing on this game is that this is their final home game until mid-January! In other words, the Thundering Herd want to make the most of this opportunity and they won' take their foot off the gas here. The Eagles are 7-13 ATS in non-conference games. The Thundering Herd are 16-6 ATS when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. 10* MARSHALL |
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12-09-18 | Tennessee +4 v. Gonzaga | Top | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #859 Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers (+) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 3 ET in Jerry Colangelo Classic @ Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, AZ - As long-time followers know, I tend to be a contrarian and it is something that has served me very well through the years. This is another prime example of going against the grain. This line on #1 ranked and undefeated Gonzaga was as low as a -2 and has since been driven up to as high as a -4 in some spots. Of course this comes as no surprise as the betting markets are attracted to spots like this and also the game, though a "neutral site" is being played out west. That makes the Bulldogs the play here the way most people see it. What I see is we're getting some extra value here with an underdog that has the much better defensive stats on the season. Tennessee is the perfect example of what a "dangerous dog" is comprised of as they are allowing just 63.6 points per game on only 35.5% shooting from the field this season even though they've played a schedule that has been nearly equivalent to the strength of schedule Gonzaga has faced early this season. Keep in mind the Bulldogs barely beat Washington in their most recent game and also looked to be in trouble against Creighton (until late 2nd half) in their prior game. That is the same Bluejays team that got manhandled by Nebraska yesterday. The point is that the Bulldogs could be slightly over-rated at this point and I expect an upset here with the Vols so I will gladly grab the available points. Note that the Volunteers are 12-4 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. Also, Gonzaga is a long-term 7-13 ATS versus SEC opponents. 10* TENNESSEE |
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12-08-18 | Creighton +7 v. Nebraska | Top | 75-94 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #787 Saturday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (+) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 6 ET - Many will be looking to back the revenge-minded home team that also has the better numbers defensively and is a Top 25 team. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going the other way in this game. The Bluejays have had the Cornhuskers number in recent seasons and Creighton is very comfortable (and used to) playing at Nebraska. That negates a bit of the normal home court edge in a game like this. As a result, there is even more line value here with the under-valued underdog. Creighton is up to a 7 point dog as of early game day morning and this is a team that led Gonzaga pretty late in the game before falling short in last Saturday's action. The Bluejays have played a tougher schedule than Nebraska early this season and though Creighton's numbers on defense do not impress, the Huskers are also having trouble getting stops on defense of late. That said, if this game turns into a shootout it favors the sharp-shooters of Creighton plus it is good to have the points on your side in a rivalry game that could be close late. There is just so much confidence with the Bluejays here because of the way they can score and go on huge scoring runs plus they have the added confidence of having played well at Nebraska. From a technical standpoint, I like the fact that the Jays are 16-6 ATS (and 18-4 SU!) when off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. Nebraska is just 6-9 SU after a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. Also, the Cornhuskers are on a 2-8 ATS run when hosting the Bluejays. 10* CREIGHTON |
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12-08-18 | St. Joe's v. Villanova OVER 147 | 58-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #743 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Villanova Wildcats vs St Joseph's Hawks @ 2 ET - The Wildcats have blown out the Hawks each of the past two seasons and have averaged 91 points per game in doing so. Villanova has held St Joseph's to an average of only 55 points per game in those two victories but I don't see that happening this time. The Hawks have been impressive in terms of balanced scoring this season and have a lot of top scoring options. St Joseph's is averaging 81 points per game on the season and the Nova defense has not been as impressive early this season. Possible championship hangover? Either way the fact is that the Hawks are likely to put up plenty of points in this one but they won't be able to stop Villanova. St Joseph's is allowing 45.5% from the field and 38.7% from three point land and the Wildcats are fully capable of putting up plenty of points against Phil Martelli's team as they've shown each of the past two seasons. Both Villanova and St Joseph's are shooting the ball very well early this season including the Hawks knocking down nearly 40% of their three pointers thus far! The over is 11-6 (including 2-0 this season) when St Joseph's is off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. Look for the Wildcats to improve to 11-6 to the over in December games. 8* OVER the total in Villanova |
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12-07-18 | Massachusetts v. Providence OVER 149 | Top | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #521 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Providence Friars vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - Both teams have gotten a lot of scoring options from new faces this season but each team is also still looking to gel in terms of defensive rotations. As a result, plenty of high-scoring games have resulted. Both teams are shooting the ball quite well, including from beyond the arc, and the over is 7-2 in UMass games this season and 5-2 in Providence games with a posted total of 140 or more. In recent seasons, the over is 13-6 when the Minutemen are off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. Also, the over is 17-8 in Massachusetts road games and this is their first true road game of this season. Both of the neutral site games for UMass this season did go over the total. The Friars are 25-11 to the over in games where they are the favorite. Also, Providence is 19-6 to the over in games where they are a home favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Both the Friars and Minutemen take a ton of threes and both teams have enjoyed solid success in knocking them down this season. That said, I look for this non-conference match-up to result in plenty of points. Each of the last two meetings with the Friars as the host have gone over the total and this one is destined to do the same! 10* OVER the total in Providence |
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12-06-18 | Iowa State -120 v. Iowa | Top | 84-98 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #713 Thursday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (-) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ 8 ET - As I mentioned in my write-up Monday when I faded Iowa and played Michigan State, the Hawkeyes were hoping for key contributions in the front-court this season from Jack Nunge and Cordell Pemsl. Both guys are out for the season. Granted they were not their stars but Iowa could ill afford to lose depth. Even though guard Joe Wieskamp - a freshman - has stepped up for the Hawkeyes in the back-court, he is currently dealing with an ankle injury. He is expected to start tonight but don't be surprised if it flares up on him. The bigger issue for the Hawkeyes is their front-court as they continue to allow a ton of points in the paint. Though the Cyclones tend to go with a lineup comprised of 4 perimeter players with 1 big man, they can also adjust that if they want but why tinker with what is working great? The fact is that Iowa State has gotten huge contributions from big man Michael Jacobson and they are already 7-1 this season and playing much better defense than the Hawkeyes. Keep in mind, Iowa had a huge problem with defense last season and it has continued to be their Achilles heel this season as well. Plus compounding the issue for Iowa is that now they are not shooting well either. The Hawkeyes have been held to 39% or less from the field in 3 straight games. I love the fact here that, from a public perspective, Iowa will be attractive as they are at home and are the ranked team and are seeking revenge but yet are the dog here. In a situation like this I'll gladly take the better team that is unranked and on the road. Don't be fooled by the line here folks. In fact, keep in mind, the best value for those of you with access to it is to grab the money line here (currently in the -120 range as of early Thursday morning). The Hawkeyes are on an ugly 4-9 SU run against teams that allow 64 points or less per game. The Cyclones are 19-10 SU when off a game in which they scored 80 points or more and they stay red hot here and dominate this rivalry match-up. 10* IOWA STATE |
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12-05-18 | Ohio State -5 v. Illinois | Top | 77-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #529 Wednesday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Illinois Illini @ United Center in Chicago, IL @ 7 ET - The last time the Buckeyes faced the Illini away from Columbus they lost by 5. It is payback time here and the set-up is perfect. Ohio State is off a Big Ten home opener win and doesn't play again, after this game, until the 15th. That game will be against Bucknell. In other words, without a shadow of a doubt the Buckeyes are fully focused on this game and they are also catching a struggling Illinois team. The Illini have lost 6 of their last 7 games. The only 2 SU wins that Illinois has this season is when they were a double digit favorite. The problem with Illinois, just like last season, is defense. The Illini have allowed 7 straight opponents to make at least 46% of their shots from the field and, during this stretch they have allowed an average of better than 50% from the field for the opposition. The Buckeyes have been a pleasant surprise early this season and have been strong on both ends of the floor. They are playing well together as a cohesive group while Illinois has had issues with consistency which is not surprising given how many key players they lost from last season's team. I am aware of the injury involving Buckeyes freshman guard Luther Muhammad but Ohio State played very well without him versus Minnesota and have solid depth in their backcourt. The Buckeyes are 5-1 SU (and 4-2 ATS) against teams that allow 77 points or more per game. The Illiini are 5-11 SU (and 4-12 ATS) in neutral court games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. The Buckeyes are allowing just 60 points per game this season while Illinois is allowing 77 points per game! 10* OHIO STATE |
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12-04-18 | Northeastern v. Syracuse -10 | Top | 49-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach CBB Game #720 Tuesday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (-) vs Northeastern Huskies @ 6:45 ET - The Orange are off a rather unimpressive effort versus Cornell. Yes they beat the Big Red but they certainly didn't dominate and their next game is going to be a Big East foe as they face Georgetown Saturday. Though that is still not a conference game for the Orange, the point is that Syracuse knows they need to clean things up sooner rather than later. Hosting Northeastern on Tuesday should provide the perfect opportunity to do just that. The Huskies are without three key players from last season and all are guards. Northeastern has been without Shawn Occeus (Colonial Defensive POY last season), Max Boursiquot (started all but 1 game last season), and Vasa Pusica. The latter of those 3 players is the Huskies best player by far and he has been out since Northeastern's big win over Alabama. The short-handed Huskies just won't have enough to get by the deeper and much more talented Orange. Syracuse also will be in "response mode" on the defensive end as they've been a little lackluster in that aspect of their game recently and head coach Jim Boeheim is demanding a strong effort in this game. As injury-riddled as Northeastern is, they still have some solid outside shooters and the Orange must contest those shots. Look for them to do just that and to dominate this game. Look for the Orange to improve to 3-0 ATS when they are a favorite in a range of 10 to 19 points this season. The Huskies drop to 0-4 ATS the last 4 times they've been a dog. 10* SYRACUSE |
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12-03-18 | Iowa v. Michigan State -10 | Top | 68-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #516 Monday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 6:30 ET - The Spartans have opened up as a double digit favorite even though the Hawkeyes are very close to them in the rankings. Must be a mistake, right? Of course it is not a mistake but bettors will be attracted to Iowa as a result. Don't be fooled here as Michigan State should win this game in an absolute annihilation. The Spartans have played a tougher schedule than Iowa and also are the much deeper and much more veteran team. The Hawkeyes also were hoping for key contributions in the front-court this season from Jack Nunge and Cordell Pemsl. Both guys are out for the season. Granted they were not their stars but Iowa could ill afford to lose depth. Keep in mind this is the Hawkeyes first true road game of the season and they are 4-17 SU and 4-15 ATS in road games the past two seasons. The Spartans are a dominating 15-1 SU (and 12-4 ATS) in their last 16 home games versus Iowa. Also, Michigan State has already had wake-up calls with a loss at Louisville and a tight win at Rutgers. Remember the Spartans did lose their season opener (by just 5 points against powerful Kansas). In other words, this is a team that has already been battle tested and has proven worthy of respect. In this game, their Big Ten home opener, look for the Spartans to put one foot on the throats of the Hawkeyes and they won't take their other foot off the gas either! In other words, they dominate this one and win by 15 to 20 points. Michigan State is the much better team in terms of shooting and defense plus they've played the tougher schedule as noted above. Look for the Spartans to improve to 7-1 SU (and 6-2 ATS) on the season when favored. 10* MICHIGAN STATE |
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12-01-18 | Cincinnati v. UNLV +6.5 | Top | 65-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game # 580 Saturday 10* Top Play UNLV Rebels (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 6 ET - It wasn't that long ago that Bearcats head coach Mick Cronin supposedly had accepted the UNLV job and yet, when he did not, speculation ran rampant that he merely used the Rebels to gain leverage with his contract situation at Cincinnati. Note that Cronin did get a 2-year extension with the Bearcats after the UNLV "debacle". Suffice to say, emotions will be running high for this one as UNLV now hosts Cronin's Bearcats Saturday afternoon at 3 PM local time here in Vegas. Rebels head coach Marvin Menzies has done a great job rebuilding the UNLV basketball program. Even though they lost some key players from last year's team, they had a great recruiting class and have plenty of talent this season. With the young Rebels able to play host in this one, I see them holding the edge over a Cincinnati team playing its first true road game of the season. Note that the Bearcats have covered 4 straight games but they were favored my more than a dozen points in 3 of the 4 games. The Rebels are off a loss but previously had won 4 straight games and I look for them to bounce back strong here. Grab the big points here. 10* UNLV |
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11-30-18 | Mississippi State -3.5 v. Dayton | Top | 65-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #725 Friday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (-) @ Dayton Flyers @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Flyers as they lost at Mississippi State last season. However, though that was only a 2-point loss for Dayton, the Flyers were actually down by 15 points at the half. The Bulldogs let them back in the game in the second half but I expect this year's match-up to play out much differently. Mississippi State is loaded with returning talent and veteran leadership while Dayton lost some key pieces compared to the team they were two seasons ago. That said, I have no hesitation in laying the short number on the road in this one. The Bulldogs are the better team, the bigger team, and the more veteran team. Also, Mississippi State is a fantastic 32-15 ATS when they enter a game having failed to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. Additionally, the Bulldogs are on a 4-0 ATS run in Friday games. The Flyers are on a 3-7 ATS run when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. Look for Dayton to show some "rust" here as they have not played in a week and I expect the Flyers to drop to 3-6 ATS the last 9 times they've been a home dog in a range of 3.5 of 6 points. 10* MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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11-29-18 | Alabama v. UCF OVER 133.5 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #507 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Central Florida Golden Knights vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 7 ET - The Golden Knights are known for their defense but they've also been shooting the ball very well this season and have averaged 75.3 points per game thus far. That is noteworthy here in terms of looking for a high-scoring game because the Crimson Tide have scored 78 points or more in 5 of their 6 games this season. Alabama is struggling on the defensive end this season and I expect Central Florida to take advantage. However, Crimson Tide also has plenty of confidence from their offensive production leading the way to a 5-1 start. These teams met last season and that familiarity with what to expect will also help each team better attack the defense in this rematch. I know last year's game played out to an under but the Tide are quite a different team this season and I expect them to push the pace much more in this rematch after falling short in a low-scoring battle last season at home. The over is 3-0 this season in Alabama's games with a posted total in the 130s. Look for UCF to improve to 3-1 to the over in home games this season. Before a low-scoring win over Northern Kentucky last week, the Golden Knights had scored 77 points or more in 4 of their first 5 games. 10* OVER the total in Central Florida |
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11-28-18 | Syracuse +5.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 72-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #737 Wednesday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (+) @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:15 ET - Coming into the season I had Syracuse ranked much higher than Ohio State. So far this season the Orange have underachieved while the Buckeyes overachieved. The result is that Ohio State is ranked and Syracuse unranked heading into this match-up. Keep in mind, the Orange just got back senior guard Frank Howard and he had 5 assists in 19 minutes in his first game back. Syracuse, with Howard back, is a much different team. The Orange have plenty of talent and plenty of veteran leadership to beat a team like the Buckeyes on Ohio State's home floor. That said, the fact that we're getting about a half-dozen points here too make this one a "must play" in my book. Syracuse is well-rested here and they've gone 6-2 SU and ATS the past two seasons when they enter a game with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Buckeyes are 8-14 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s and Ohio State is an ugly 11-18 ATS their last 29 non-conference games. Big time line value with the underdog Orange in this one. 10* SYRACUSE |
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11-27-18 | Virginia Tech v. Penn State +2.5 | Top | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #518 Tuesday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - The public will be backing the ranked road team in this one. However, the home dog should prove to be the correct side. The Hokies are still without guard Chris Clarke and Virginia Tech is facing an angry Penn State team here. The Nittany Lions are off a low-scoring loss to Bradley where they shot horribly and, as a result, they can't wait to get back on the floor. Keep in mind, Penn State won 26 games last season and they are being undervalued here in this spot. The Nittany Lions are 13-7 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. Also, PSU is 5-1 ATS when off a game in which they scored 60 points or less. In road games with a posted total between 140 and 144.5 points, the Hokies are a long-term 9-20 SU and that includes 2-4 SU in recent seasons. The home team has won 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams and I look for that trend to continue here as Virginia Tech has enjoyed particular success with 3-pointers (41.4% this season) but they're facing a Nittany Lions perimeter defense that has surrendered just 22.9% from beyond the arc this season! 10* PENN STATE |
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11-26-18 | Nebraska v. Clemson UNDER 139 | Top | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #716 Monday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Clemson Tigers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 7 ET - This total opened up at a 137 and has climbed as high as 139 as of early Monday morning. The fact is that both of these teams play strong defense and I feel we're getting excellent value with the under here. Both teams showed great improvement on the defensive end last season and that has continued into this season. The Cornhuskers are allowing just 51.7 points per game on shooting of 32.4% from the field and 22.4% from beyond the arc. The Tigers are off a rare poor game defensively against Creighton but this was preceded by Clemson allowing an average of only 57 points per game in their 4 prior games. When these teams most recently met (2 years ago) they combined for only 118 points and I expect another "grinder" here in this one Monday. The Cornhuskers are on short rest and have gone under in 7 of their last 10 when playing with just 1 day of rest between games. Nebraska has stayed under in 5 of their 6 games this season. Also, the past two seasons the Huskers played 5 road games that had a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points. The result of those games from a totals standpoint was 0 overs and 5 unders! Look for that trend to remain perfect here. 10* UNDER the total in Clemson |
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11-25-18 | Drexel v. Bowling Green OVER 151 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #517 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Bowling Green Falcons vs Drexel Dragons @ 3 ET - First off I am aware of the injury situation with Dragons guard Kurk Lee but he truly hasn't played much of a factor this season as he has totaled only 12 minutes on the floor in Drexel's last 3 games. As a result, he is not much of a factor in terms of this total and the Dragons are on a 3-0 run to the over. Also, Drexel gave up 78 points to the Falcons last season in Philly and now they face them at Bowling Green which means even more points likely here! That's because the Falcons are happy to be back on their home floor and they're also coming off a loss where they had a rare poor night and scored just 67 points. Prior to that low-scoring defeat, BG had scored at least 75 points in 4 of their first 5 games plus they had reached the 80 point mark 3 times. The Dragons have averaged 98 points their last 3 games and yes one of those games was against a very weak foe but, even taking that out of the equation Drexel has averaged 87.5 points their last two games. The over is a long-term 14-6 when the Dragons are off a non-conference game. The over is 15-9 when Bowling Green is off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. Also the Falcons are 14-7 to the over when facing a team that is averaging 77 points or more per game. In other words, they have not been (and still are not) afraid to get into "run and gun" type games with teams like Drexel and that is what I expect here. 10* OVER the total in Bowling Green |
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11-23-18 | Northern Iowa v. Old Dominion -7 | Top | 65-72 | Push | 0 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #534 Friday 10* Top Play Old Dominion Monarchs (-) vs Northern Iowa Panthers @ 7 ET - Had my eyes on this match-up all along as these teams were in a tournament in the Virgin Islands and did end up meeting already this season in that tourney. Old Dominion lost that game by a single point to Northern Iowa even though the Monarchs had a dozen more shot attempts from the field than the Panthers in that one. The point is that it was simply an "off" shooting night for Old Dominion but now they get a chance at revenge and the opportunity comes on their home floor where the Monarchs are fully capable of a dominating effort. Yes, Old Dominion lost some talent from last season's very successful team but they've "reloaded" well and Northern Iowa lost much more and certainly has been in a bit of a stagnant cycle in recent seasons. Note also that the Panthers are 9-21 ATS as an underdog, 5-18 ATS in road games, 3-12 ATS in road games with a posted total in the 120s, and 5-18 ATS when off a game in which they were held to 60 points or less! Long-term the Monarchs are 45-9 SU as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Couple that with Northern Iowa's poor ATS record as an underdog (plus the strong situational edge here) and you can see why a big home win (and cover!) is in the forecast for this one! 10* OLD DOMINION |
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11-21-18 | CS-Fullerton +4.5 v. Hofstra | Top | 71-80 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #531 Wednesday 10* Top Play Cal State Fullerton Titans (+) @ Hofstra Pride @ 7 ET - Though the Titans are all the way on the East Coast for this game they were already out east for a tournament in Myrtle Beach, SC that wrapped up over the weekend. That said, this is not too bad of a travel situation for Cal State Fullerton. I like the fact that the Titans have veteran leadership, strong guard play and are the better team defensively in comparison with Hofstra. The Pride have allowed 47.8% shooting in their games this season while the Titans have allowed only 36.1% from the field! Cal State Fullerton took Arizona State to double OT in their first game this season and also is battle-tested after games against Wake Forest and Central Florida in the just-completed Myrtle Beach tourney. The Pride have been a covering machine this season (4-0 ATS thus far) but I have not been impressed with their play on the defensive end thus far and that will prove to be their undoing here. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Pride are on a 16-27 ATS run. Hofstra also is on an ugly 4-12 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. I am expecting an upset here but will gladly grab the points. 10* CAL STATE FULLERTON |
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11-20-18 | Bradley +3 v. SMU | Top | 75-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #757 Tuesday 10* Top Play Bradley Braves (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 6 ET in the Cancun Challenge - Riviera Division at Hard Rock Arena @ Riviera Maya Cancun - The Braves finally turned the corner last season in their multi-season rebuild. Now they return most of their key talent from last year and it has already been a 3-1 start to this season. Look for Bradley to stay hot here as SMU is dealing with some injury issues and the Mustangs just haven't looked as strong early this season as the Braves have. SMU is allowing 44.4% from the field this season and 39.2% from three point land. Bradley is allowing just 41.4% from the field and only 30.9% from three point land. In a neutral court game with a posted total between 130 and 134.5 points, the Braves are 7-3 ATS. The Mustangs are 19-36 ATS in neutral court games. SMU is also a long-term 28-40 ATS in November games. The early line move has been toward the Mustangs here and I am going contrarian and grabbing the value on the other side with the mid-major school, the Braves. 10* BRADLEY |
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11-19-18 | Western Michigan v. Cincinnati OVER 136 | 52-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
Zig Zag Best Bet - Rickenbach CBB Game #519 Monday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Bearcats vs Western Michigan Broncos @ 7 ET - Though I am posting this play early it will not surprise me if this total moves lower because of the long-term defensive reputation of Cincinnati. That is why this is a Zig Zag play for me as we're looking at this game with a different outlook than most would. The fact is that the Bearcats are favored by 17.5 here and they allowed 63.5 points per game to Ohio State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. The point is that this game should end up an 82 to 64 type game and that is a full ten points off from the current total posted on this game. Note the Broncos have been involved in high-scoring games and the over is a perfect 4-0 in Western Michigan's first four games. Also, the Broncos have allowed an average of 81 points per game against Division I competition this season. Western Michigan is 4-1 to the over when playing with 1 day of rest or less between games. The Bearcats are 3-1 to the over in home games with a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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11-17-18 | Furman v. Villanova -16 | 76-68 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #584 Saturday 8* Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Furman Paladins @ 5 ET - The Paladins are in the wrong place at the wrong time. We're getting some line value here because Furman is 4-0 on the season. Everyone can see that unblemished record and those same people also witnessed Villanova get crushed by Michigan on Wednesday. The result is that this line is being kept lower than it should be. The Wildcats are angry and will respond huge at home in what is their final home game until facing Temple on December 5th! That is a span of nearly 3 weeks so the Cats want o make this one count, particularly after what just happened against the Wolverines. Of course coach Jay Wright will have this Villanova team ready to go and they're going to take advantage of a Furman team that has a good record the past 3 seasons but that lost a ton of talent coming into this season. The Paladins lost a pair of 1,000 point scorers plus another pair of seniors. They still have enough talent to beat other teams in their conference and at a similar level to them. But the fact is Furman is stepping way up in class here and they're traveling to Villanova at absolutely the worst possible time. Look for the Paladins to drop to 0-4 SU and ATS versus Big East opponents. As for the Wildcats, they add to a 24-11 ATS run when facing teams that average 77 points or more per game. Also, the Cats are 19-9 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140s. 8* VILLANOVA |
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11-16-18 | St. John's v. Rutgers +3 | Top | 84-65 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #730 Friday 10* Top Play Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+) vs St John's Red Storm @ 7 ET - The Red Storm are getting a lot of love from the betting markets early this morning and that doesn't come as a big surprise considering they've enjoyed long-term success against the Scarlet Knights and that includes games at Rutgers. Of course this little push by the markets has resulted in even more line value here with the home dog Scarlet Knights. The key here is that Rutgers has started the season really hot with their shooting and they get this game at home. St John's and the Scarlet Knights have played roughly equal teams so far in terms of strength of schedule so certainly one should not discount what Rutgers has done early this season. They are off to a red hot start with their shooting including from three point land. The Scarlet Knights also have a big edge in terms of size in this match-up. Rebounding deficits have been a recurring them for the Red Storm in recent seasons and that is likely to continue to be an issue in this match-up. Plus the aggressive Knights (added some talented scorers coming into this season) can attack the rim easier when there are not big guys down there. The size issue for St John's has been exasperated even more because they were counting on 6'9 250 Sedee Keita for key minutes in the rotation but he is now out with a knee injury. The Red Storm are 10-25 ATS in Friday games long-term and are 7-12 ATS in recent seasons when off a game where they scored 80 points or more. The Scarlet Knights are 6-1 ATS when off a game where they scored 80 points or more plus they are 10-2 ATS in non-conference games. I like the hot home team with the bigger bodies and with the extra line value. 10* RUTGERS |
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11-15-18 | Ohio State -120 v. Creighton | Top | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Zig Zag Best Bet - Rickenbach CBB Game #507 Thursday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (-) @ Creighton Bluejays @ 7 ET - The Buckeyes line has moved low enough (from an opener of -2.5) to where now it makes sense to look at the money line (as low as -120 as of 11 AM ET) for those of you whom have access to it. The markets are liking Creighton in early betting as, of course, the Bluejays have a long history of success when playing on their home floor. Also, in true "zig zag theory" fashion, the markets are backing the 0-2 ATS Bluejays over the 2-0 ATS Buckeyes figuring that Creighton is "due" for a cover. We'll fade that theory here as Ohio State is simply playing great basketball on both sides of the floor. Their confidence is sky high after they went into Cincinnati and played stellar defense to ruin opening night for the Bearcats in their newly renovated ($87 million worth) Fifth Third Arena. The Buckeyes then got the job done again with their defense in their very next game as their high pressure defense led to plenty of quick transition points. Ohio State also knocked down 15 three-pointers in that game, a big win over IPFW. Granted IUPU-Fort Wayne is a step down in level of competition to say the least but that 107-61 blowout win goes a long way in giving a young Buckeyes team a ton of confidence. Also, keep in mind the Bluejays are also a young team this season and Creighton has won both their games early this season but in much less impressive fashion. Also, the Bluejays are an ugly 5-14 ATS as an underdog the past two seasons. Ohio State is 13-4 SU in November games. Also, the Buckeyes are 8-3 ATS in road games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. 10* OHIO STATE |
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11-14-18 | Michigan +7.5 v. Villanova | Top | 73-46 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Wednesday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Villanova Wildcats @ 6:30 ET - This a rematch of last year's national championship game. The Wildcats defeated the Wolverines handily by 17 points. However, just how solid was that victory really? Certainly some credit is owed to the Villanova defense for it but the fact that Michigan only made 3 of 23 three pointers certainly had something to do with it too. The Wildcats outscored the Wolverines by 21 points from 3-point land as the Cats made 10 three points in the game! The point is that the game could have gone either way were it not for the disparity from beyond the arc. Now, this season, each of the teams are a little younger and less experienced but one could argue that Villanova lost more from their roster than did Michigan. I have plenty of respect for coach Jay Wright and his Wildcats but the Wolverines are led by a great coach of their own in John Beilein. Michigan, and Beilein, have had their sites set on this rematch. So much so in fact that they were down big at the half against Holy Cross in their most recent game. Of course the Wolverines responded and blew out the Crusaders in the second half but, the point is, this game has been circled in red ever since the schedules come out. Perhaps the Wolverines do fall short here but, if they do I expect the loss to be by only a bucket or two. Great value with the big dog here and Michigan is 12-6 ATS their last 18 as an underdog. I'll grab the generous points being offered. 10* MICHIGAN |
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11-13-18 | Wisconsin -120 v. Xavier | Top | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) @ Xavier Musketeers @ 6:30 ET - The first viewpoint on this would be with consideration to how strong Xavier was last season and the fact they are a home underdog here, they simply "must" be the play here. Of course the contrarian viewpoint is to not be fooled! The fact is that the Badgers are a much more cohesive unit right now plus playing with revenge here plus will take advantage of an Xavier team dealing with a major transition period. Not only did the Musketeers lose head coach Chris Mack, Xavier also lost key players Trevon Bluiett and J.P. Macura. That said, they're going to have trouble with a Badgers team that is much healthier now than they were last season when their backcourt was ravaged by injuries. Also, Wisconsin still has big man Ethan Happ and he creates a troublesome match-up for the Musketeers. Another key variable in favor of the Badgers here is that the injuries last season helped younger players get some valuable playing time which will now pay dividends this season. This line is very close to a pick'em and the Badgers have gone 12-1 SU the past two seasons when off a game where they scored 80 points or more. Also, Xavier is 0-2 ATS this season and also went 0-2 ATS the past two seasons when the Musketeers were at home with a line ranging from pick'em to +3. Xavier will get better as the season goes on but they're going to endure some growing pains early on and the Badgers take advantage on Tuesday. 10* WISCONSIN |
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11-12-18 | Troy State +6 v. Pittsburgh | 75-84 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #725 Monday 8* Troy Trojans (+) @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ 7 ET - The Trojans are off a loss Saturday but it was a very tight loss and it was at St Louis. Keep in mind the Billikens are projected to be the top team in the Atlantic Ten this season. So Troy enters this game just 1-1 while Pittsburgh is 2-0 but the Panthers have played a weak schedule and are projected to be near the very bottom of the ACC once again this season! Still this is a match-up that many will look at say, give the "big school" team at home against a "small school" and sure enough that is what is happening as the line has climbed from 4.5 to a 6 early this morning. The fact is that Troy has a trio of senior starters as well as an infusion of young talent and they will make for a very tough match-up for a Panthers team that is still in a bit of disarray from the firing of their coach in March. Don't get me wrong, Pittsburgh's new coach is a great coach but they also lost some key players through this coaching transition and there will be an adjustment phase. This hasn't shown up yet because the Panthers have played weak teams but Troy, especially with their veteran leadership, is going to present a much greater challenge. The Trojans are 4-2 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Panthers are 4-7 ATS (and 2-9 SU!) in games with a posted total in the 130 to 139.5 range. In other words, upset alert! I'll grab the points for the extra insurance though certainly an outright upset would not surprise. 8* TROY |
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11-11-18 | Vanderbilt +3 v. USC | 82-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #531 Sunday 8* Vanderbilt Commodores (+) @ USC Trojans @ 9 ET - The Commodores have revenge from a home loss to the Trojans last season USC is still without a lot of talent as they suffered key losses as a result of the federal investigation into college hoops where their program was one of the first ones named. Additionally, due to injury, their #1 player coming into this season (Bennie Boatwright) is currently out. Both Southern Cal and Vanderbilt opened their college hoops campaign with wins but the Commodores definitely faced the tougher opponent. I also love the huge influx of talent that Vandy head coach Bryce Drew brought in for this season. Yes they had seniors last year but the program actually regressed. It was the younger team the season before that was so successful for Vanderbilt in Drew's first year with the program which was the 2016-17 season. In other words, with this influx of talent hand-picked by Drew heading into this season, don't be surprised if the Commodores make significant strides this season. This is a match-up they can take advantage of as they face the Trojans without Boatwright. Of course most bettors will look at USC at home and laying a small number on the west coast facing a team from back east and it looks like "the play" to them. However, per all of the above, you can see why the short road dog should get the cash here. Don't be fooled by the line and, of course, that is what my contrarian crusher picks are all about. 8* VANDERBILT |
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11-10-18 | Ball State +13.5 v. Purdue | 75-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #725 Saturday 8* Ball State Cardinals (+) @ Purdue Boilermakers @ 8 ET - The Boilermakers rolled to an easy win in their first game of the season but they played a MAAC team, Fairfield, that lost their top scorers from last season. Purdue is going to face a much tougher challenge Saturday as they host a Ball State team that is very deep, very talented, and likely to end up as one of the top teams in the MAC this season. The Cardinals are ready to carry momentum over from a strong 2nd half performance in their win over Indiana State to open up the season. They will take advantage of a Purdue team that lost 4 senior starters that combined for 154 starts last season! Of course the Boilermakers still have Carsen Edwards and they have plenty of talent that, last season, was sitting behind all those senior starters. However, there will likely be some growing pains early this season against quality competition and Ball State is certainly going to prove to be a major step up in talent level compared to the Fairfield team that the Boilermakers demolished. I am grabbing the big points here as I expect this one to be decided by single digits! The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Also, the Cards are on a 14-8 ATS run as an underdog. 8* BALL STATE |
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11-09-18 | Indiana State v. Green Bay | Top | 78-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #517 Friday 10* Top Play Indiana State Sycamores (pick'em) @ Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix @ 4:30 ET - UWGB is attracting some betting attention here because they are off a blowout win in their season opener while the Sycamores are off a blowout loss in their season opener. However, there is much more than meets the eye at first glance in terms of this match-up. First off, the Phoenix took advantage of playing a Division III school as they crushed Wisconsin-Lutheran to open up the season. Secondly, Indiana State played a Ball State team that is expected to be on of the top teams in the MAC. The Sycamores, even though they were on the road for that game too, were tied at the half with the Cardinals and also were down by just 7 at about the mid-way point of the 2nd half. After a disappointing effort on defense in the 2nd half of that game, the Sycamores are hell-bent on rectifying the situation here. Also, Indiana State was at a size disadvantage at Ball State but now it is the Sycamores whom will have the size edge in this match-up with UWGB. Also, this is game is an early start Friday due to a conflict with the Volleyball schedule for the Phoenix and so the game goes at 3:30 ET. A day game on campus isn't going to help the atmosphere here for UWGB either. With the Sycamores not playing again until the 14th, they are highly motivated to atone for their poor 2nd half performance at Ball State. The Phoenix are 2-6 ATS in Friday games and I look for the Sycamores to improve to 3-0 ATS in games with a posted total in the 150s in recent seasons. 10* INDIANA STATE |
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11-07-18 | Ohio State v. Cincinnati -5.5 | 64-56 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #522 Wednesday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 6 ET - Huge game for many reasons. For one thing, it brings back the Cincinnati / Ohio State match-up many in Ohio had been calling for (they will meet next year in Columbus). Secondly, the Bearcats had to play their home games last season on the campus of Northern Kentucky as they were waiting for the renovations ($87 million!) to be completed at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati. You know the Bearcats are excited about this opportunity being back in their true home and hosting Ohio State. Last, but certainly not least, coach Mick Cronin and his Bearcats have been waiting nearly 8 months for a chance to redeem themselves after what happened back on March 18th. That was the infamous game against Nevada in the NCAA Tourney that saw a Cincinnati team that was one of the best in the nation defensively, blow a 22-point lead with 11 minutes to go in the game! One thing impacting Ohio State here is that big man Micah Potter just announced he was transferring. Granted he only averaged 10 minutes per game last season but, as a junior now, he was expected to have a bigger role this season and the Buckeyes lost a lot of key players from last year's team prior to now losing frontcourt depth with Potter's announcement. The Bearcats are 23-2 SU in their last 25 home games and this a very manageable line especially when you consider that Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games. Look for the strong D and the home court edge to be the difference makers for the Bearcats here as they take advantage of a Buckeyes team that will be adjusting to life without Keita Bates-Diop and Jae'Sean Tate as well as guards Kam Williams and Andrew Dakich. Sure the Bearcats lost some players too but they are in far better shape than the Buckeyes here in the early going. 8* CINCINNATI |
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11-06-18 | Rider v. UCF -7 | 70-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #758 Tuesday 8* UCF Knights (-) vs Rider Broncs @ 6:30 ET - The Broncs are projected to be the #1 team in the MAAC this season and are getting a lot of respect from the betting markets here as a result. However, there contrarian viewpoint to this game that is getting overlooked by many is that the Knights are projected to be the #1 team in the AAC this season. Not only is UCF at home and coming from the stronger conference - American Athletic Conference over Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference - the fact is that the Knights are much healthier entering this season than they were last season. UCF managed to win 19 games last season despite enduring many injury setbacks. They enter this season with Tacko Fall and BJ Taylor both ready to be on the court at the same time (only played together in ONE game last season) and also Aubrey Dawkins (coach Johnny Dawkins son) is ready to go this season too! He transferred from Michigan to follow his father down to Central Florida so he had to sit out the first two season two years ago and then he missed last season due to a shoulder injury. Now he is ready to go as is the rest of a solid core group of Knights player. Additionally, UCF is even stronger due to some other additions (including through transfer) to an already solid basketball program. Sure Rider has impressive numbers on offense but their defense won't be able to match that of the Knights and this season's UCF team is loaded now that they are healthy. Plus, keep in mind, the Knights had added benefit of other guys getting valuable playing time last season due to the injuries. 8* UCF |
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04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 36 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Monday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 9:20 ET - After both favorites covered in the Final Four, don't be surprised if there is a lot of support for the underdog in this one. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am backing the favorite here. Lets not forget Michigan's path to get here. They beat low seeded teams (Montana and Loyola), only beat Houston because the Cougars couldn't make free throws late, did blowout Texas A & M but barely got by a Florida State team that (for this season at least) has a photo of its likeness next to the word inconsistent in the dictionary. In all seriousness though, the Wolverines have not been nearly as impressive as the Wildcats have. I have said it before and I'll say it again, Villanova is a team on a mission ever since, after winning it all in 2016, they were bounced early from the tourney by Wisconsin last year. The Wildcats haven't been just beating teams, they've been dominating them. How many people felt good about Michigan winning the game yesterday (against an 11 seed!) when they were down 7 at the half? Or still down 5 past the midway point of the 2nd half? Give the Wolverines credit for the comeback win (and a cover that did burn me as I had the Ramblers) but Villanova is not Loyola and this one will likely be close for awhile (Michigan is strong defensively) but the Wildcats will ultimately pull away in convincing fashion. Villanova has not only won 10 straight games, they are on an 8-1 ATS run. Also, the Wildcats last 9 wins have all come by double digit margins. Look for this to be another one. 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
THE College Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #814 Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 8:45 ET - Kansas just beat Duke in overtime. That was a huge win and it took OT to get it. Now, of course, the Jayhawks have had ample time to hit reset and get ready for Villanova but the Wildcats have been the much more impressive team. Keep in mind Kansas has allowed about 44% from the field in their last 3 games. The Wildcats, on the other hand, have allowed 61 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games and Villanova has held their last 5 opponents to a combined 37% from the field. The Wildcats defense is simply fantastic and, on offense they have 6 key cogs in the rotation that all handle the ball very well and can score well which creates a match-up nightmare for the opposition. Having already faced the two toughest defenses (including uniqueness of Mountaineers) of the Big 12 (Texas Tech and West Virginia), Villanova is more than ready to take on the Jayhawks. Jay Wright is a helluva strong coach and this team has been on a mission ever since winning it all in 2016 but then getting bounced early by Wisconsin in last year's Big Dance. Villanova will not be denied and we're getting great line value here with the low number on this one. The Wildcats are a long-term 39-2 SU when they enter off of a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. They are locked in on D right now and most all of their wins have come by at least a half dozen points this season. In other words, you can be very comfortable laying this! All 7 of the Jayhawks losses this season came by at least 5 points. 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago +5.5 v. Michigan | Top | 57-69 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #811 Saturday 10* Top Play Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 6:05 ET - The other match-up in the Final Four has a #1 seed matched up with another #1 seed and the line is the same as this line. Do you see my point? Here we have a #3 seed Michigan facing a #11 seed Loyola and we have the exact same line. So this is basically an invitation from the betting markets to take the much higher seed and lay a very small line. I am not buying it! The fact is that the odds makers (always very sharp and on top of their game) realize that this Loyola team is damn good and playing their best, most cohesive basketball of the season right now. The fact is that the odds makers had to put the line like this because they know they're going to have to keep the Michigan line low to balance the sharp money that will come in on the Ramblers. They fact is that Loyola has proven they can play with some top quality teams and if Michigan does defeat them I expect it to be by a single possession. Loyala has simply gone toe to toe with everyone they've faced. Michigan's record looks great but they haven't shot well in 2 of their last 3 games and also haven't shot well from beyond the arc in 3 of their 4 NCAA Tourney games. The Ramblers make a high percentage because they take quality shots and create good looks and high percentage chances. Loyola faced a tougher road to get this point and they've truly proven themselves. Michigan beat Houston by a single point and only because the Cougars didn't make free throws. The Wolverines beat the Aggies because of torrid hot shooting. But in their other game they faced Montana (much lower competition) and Florida State (a fragile, inconsistent team all season). This Ramblers team is anything but fragile or inconsistent! I'll gladly take the points and an outright upset will not surprise me in the least. 10* LOYOLA-CHICAGO |
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03-30-18 | Illinois-Chicago +9 v. Northern Colorado | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #781 Friday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Northern Colorado Bears @ 7 ET - The Bears are at home for this one but they are still over-priced in my opinion. Many will look at Illinois-Chicago's travel situation and Northern Colorado's hot ATS streak and they'll be all over the Bears here. I am going contrarian and grabbing the points with the hungry road dog in this Championship Game. The Flames have played a tougher schedule on the season and Illinois-Chicago has defended very well this season. UIC also have shut down the 3-ball very well in their last two games and this is what Northern Colorado has been relying on to achieve their blowout wins. The Bears aren't going to hit 17 of 30 threes in this one like they did against Sam Houston State Wednesday. Also, Northern Colorado has allowed 79.5 points per game their last 4 games. Teams can get spoiled when winning with offense. Subconsciously there is a tendency to let up on defense when things are going so well on the offensive end. This will prove to be the undoing of the Bears because they now face a Flames team that has allowed 61 points or less (and 33.3% or less from the field) in 2 of their last 3 games. From a technical aspect, I like the fact that UIC is 20-8 ATS in recent seasons (including 7-2 ATS and SU) this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Look for the Flames defense to be the difference here. As a home fave of 6.5 to 9 points, Northern Colorado is on an 11-16 ATS run including 2-4 ATS in recent seasons. The Bears are over-priced here. 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO |
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03-29-18 | Penn State v. Utah OVER 134 | Top | 82-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #711 Thursday 10* OVER the total in Utah Utes vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7 ET - 3 of the Nittany Lions 4 NIT games have gone under the total. However, a big win at Marquette thanks to hot shooting followed up by continued hot shooting here at MSG on Tuesday is what has Penn State in the NIT Championship. As a result, I feel we're getting great line value here because the results are similar for Utah. The Utes have stayed under the total in 3 of their 4 NIT games but they have shot the ball very well in their last 5 games. I just don't see Penn State as wanting this game to slow down too much. Couple that with Utah having shot 50% from the field in their last 5 games and you have the makings of an easy over here. The Utes, though they shot well overall, did not shoot the 3-ball well Tuesday versus Western Kentucky and that has led to value here. Utah is 6-3 to the over this season when off of a game where they were held under 32.2% from 3 point land. The over is 13-7 in Penn State's last 20 games versus teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in Utah |
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03-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago +6.5 v. Liberty | Top | 67-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Wednesday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Liberty Flames @ 7 ET - Even though UIC is without leading scorer Dikembe Dixson, they've been without him for both games of this tournament already and are adjusting just fine by going guard-heavier with their lineup. The fact is that Dixson wasn't a high percentage shooter and Illinois-Chicago has clearly picked up the slack. Yes, Liberty is home for this game but I feel they are getting far too much respect here. The line has gone from Liberty -5 to as high as a -6.5 as of early gameday morning. The fact is that UIC played a tougher schedule than Liberty and Illinois-Chicago is also a solid team defensively just like Liberty is. In fact, UIC is allowing only 32.8% from three point land while Liberty has allowed 36.6% from beyond the arc this season. With that said, I feel we're getting excellent line value here with the big points. UIC is a long-term 46-26 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games and that includes 5-1 ATS (and SU) this season. Liberty is a long-term 3-8 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. They're now going from facing a Central Michigan defense that played very little defense to facing a UIC team that is absolutely going to challenge their shots here. That said, Liberty is facing a much tougher test here and is over-priced. 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO |
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03-27-18 | Western Kentucky v. Utah | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #777 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs Utah Utes @ 7 ET - This line, as of early gameday morning, has the Hilltoppers as a very small favorite. As a result, you can play the money line in the -120 range on this one and that is what I am recommending here. The Utes are the bigger name school and will attract some attention here as a small dog as a result. However, this Hilltoppers team is extremely talented and playing extremely well. As a result, we're getting fantastic line value in this one with the ability to just take Western Kentucky to win. The Hilltoppers have been ultra impressive on both ends of the floor. They are off of a 92-84 win at Oklahoma State and are 12-2 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. They've shot the ball very well in the NIT and have averaged 83.3 points on 54% shooting from the field. Also, Western Kentucky has allowed 38.9% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. Utah is on a long-term 4-8 ATS run in tournament semi-final games and, in recent seasons the Utes have compiled a 6-10 ATS run in games played on a neutral court. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY |
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03-26-18 | North Texas v. San Francisco -3.5 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #742 Monday 10* Top Play San Francisco Dons (-) vs North Texas Mean Green @ 10 ET - Both teams faced a relatively easy path to reach this Championship Series of the CBI. However, don't be fooled by all the big points that North Texas has been putting up. They're facing a much tougher defensive test here. San Francisco played the tougher strength of schedule as their conference includes quality teams like San Diego and BYU and very strong teams like St Mary's and Gonzaga. I feel these tests during the season will help the Dons in terms of being ready to take down the Mean Green here. At home, San Francisco went 15-6 SU this season and that makes me very comfortable laying the short number here with the Dons. The Mean Green went just 6-11 SU in games away from home this season. 11 of their 17 losses this season came by 5 points or more. Also, long-term North Texas is 8-33 SU in road games and an incredibly poor 9-40 SU versus teams with a winning record. Look for the Dons to defend home court in Game 1 of this best of 3 series. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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03-25-18 | Duke v. Kansas OVER 155 | Top | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas Jayhawks vs Duke Blue Devils @ 5:05 ET - This total may seem to be on the high side but, keep in mind, these are two of the most potent offenses in college basketball today. The fact that Duke is off of a game where they scored only 69 points and didn't shoot well simply helps to add even more value here. The Blue Devils faced the tough frustrating defense of Syracuse but, in their prior games Duke had scored 87 points or more in 3 of 4 games and they shot extremely well from the field overall and from 3-point land in all 3 of those game! The Jayhawks have averaged 81 points per game in their last 6 games and they have consistently shot the ball very well over their last 10 games. It is no wonder why the over has gone 7-3 in those 10 games as Kansas is playing their best basketball of the season on the offensive end and playing with a ton of confidence. The Jayhawks are averaging 81.4 points per game and the Blue Devils 84.4 points per game on the season. Ton of offense expected here as both teams believe they can outdo each other on the offensive end and you may be surprised to see a very fast pace to this game but that is what I am expecting based on the game management expected from these coaches for this match-up. This is going to be a back and forth shootout. The over is 10-2 this season in Blue Devils games versus non-ACC foes. The over is 6-2 this season when the Jayhawks are playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. 10* OVER the total in Kansas |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech v. Villanova -6 | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Sunday 8* Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 2:20 ET - The Red Raiders deserve credit for getting here no doubt but this is where it ends. Texas Tech was on an 0-8 ATS run before back to back ATS wins versus Florida and Purdue. That said, I am not sold on this team taking down a Wildcats team that is very hungry. After winning it all in 2016, Villanova was upset in the 2nd round by Wisconsin last year. They haven't stopped working toward their goal ever since and the way they rallied against a quality West Virginia team whose defense can be very tough to beat says a lot about this team. Keep in mind, that Mountaineers team beat this same Red Raiders team twice in the past month. Now is the time to fade Texas Tech as they are a bit over-rated and Villanova's 33 wins have only included 2 by less than 7 points. When the Cats win, they win by a solid margin more often than not and we're getting good line value with a small number here. Texas Tech is 1-9 SU and ATS versus Big East opponents long-term. The Wildcats are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in NCAA Tournament games and get the cash again here. 8* VILLANOVA |
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03-24-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Kansas State -113 | Top | 78-62 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #514 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas State Wildcats (-) vs Loyola (IL) Ramblers @ 6:05 ET - The Ramblers continue to be the story of the tournament but I just don't see that continuing here. Kansas State has allowed just 53.3 ppg in the tourney and their defense has limited the opposition to less than 34% from the field. Loyola is still alive in the tourney thanks to both strong shooting and clutch shooting. But the way the Wildcats are "locked in" on the defensive end right now, I just don't see the Ramblers as being able to maintain their unlikely run that has seen them hit better than 50% from the field in the tournament. Keep in mind, Loyola is allowing 46% from the field in the tourney so the Wildcats hold the D edge here based on current level of play and Kansas State certainly holds an edge in terms of strength of schedule they faced this season. With Loyola playing the role of "Cinderella Story" in this tournament, we're getting line value with the Wildcats and I won't hesitate to step in as the money line is available at a nearly "pick'em price" on K-State in this one. 10* KANSAS STATE |
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03-24-18 | Central Michigan v. Liberty -2 | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #518 Saturday 8* Liberty Flames (-) vs Central Michigan Chippewas @ 2 ET - Classic match-up of offense versus defense and, as a general in the post-season, defense wins. The Flames have allowed just 58.7 ppg on only 38.8% shooting from the field in their home games this season. The Chippewas have allowed 79.2 ppg on 47.0% shooting from the field on the road this season. Also, after the long layoff for both teams heading into this one, it will likely prove tough on the shooters in terms of having their usual "in-season" rhythm. With that said, this is another edge for Liberty since they're playing this game on their home floor. The Flames are a long-term 6-1 ATS when playing with 7 or more days of rest between games. Central Michigan is a long-term 4-13 SU (and 6-11 ATS) in road games with a posted total in a range of 140 to 144.5 points. 8* LIBERTY |
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03-23-18 | West Virginia v. Villanova -5 | Top | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #872 Friday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7:25 ET - The Wildcats beat Alabama by 23 points despite hitting only 39.7% from the field. That certainly says a lot about just how good this Villanova team is. The Wildcats are 9-2 ATS in neutral court games this season and also 8-2 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games the past 3 tourneys combined. West Virginia has won and covered both their games so far in the tourney but they faced an Ohio Valley team and a Conference USA team. This is certainly a much stiffer challenge here and, keep in mind, the Mountaineers were only 9-9 SU their last 18 games prior to the Big Dance. As for Nova, they faced an SEC team Sunday and that is at least a tougher challenge than what West Virginia has faced so far. Also, the Mountaineers are 5-10 SU their last 15 as an underdog and 30 of the Wildcats 32 wins this season have come by a margin of 7 points or more. As you can, odds truly favoring a win for Nova by 7 or more and that gets us the cash here! We'll take it! 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-23-18 | Clemson v. Kansas -5 | 76-80 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #878 Friday 8* Kansas Jayhawks (-) vs Clemson Tigers @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday when I used Michigan in their blowout win over Texas A & M my analysis mentioned how the Aggies had basically played the "perfect game" versus North Carolina in their prior game and how that tends to be followed by a team falling flat in their next game. That is exactly what happened and the Wolverines dominated them last night. I look for a similar result here. Clemson played their "perfect game" versus Auburn in a blowout win Sunday and I expect them to come crashing down to earth big-time in this one. The loss of forward Donte Grantham (ACL) is going to be felt here as the Jayhawks frontcourt holds a big edge in this one in my opinion. The Tigers have shot the ball very well so far in this tourney but they certainly face a much bigger test Friday and, keep in mind, Clemson had been held to 58 points or less in 4 of their 7 games prior the Big Dance. As for the Jayhawks, they've scored at least 74 points in 10 of their last 11 games. Before allowing Seton Hall to shoot 45.3% Sunday, Kansas had held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 42.9% or less from the field. The Jayhawks are 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) last 10 NCAA Tourney games while the Tigers are a long-term 3-5 SU and ATS in the Big Dance. Also, Clemson is 0-4 ATS last 4 versus Big 12 opponents. 8* KANSAS |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -2.5 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #818 Thursday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 7:35 ET - The Aggies played the perfect game versus North Carolina and now the public is so enamored with Texas A & M that the line on Michigan in this game is being driven down from as high as a -4 to where it is now seems headed for a -2. Sure the Aggies looked great but everything was falling in for them and coming up roses while the Tar Heels couldn't buy a bucket. It was just one of those nights but now everyone over-reacts and you know where the value is now. Keep in mind, the Aggies beat a Providence team in round one that is certainly a good team but not great. Now A & M faces a Michigan team that has won 11 straight games and has allowed less than 35% from the field so far in this tourney. The Wolverines had a very tough shooting effort in their tight win over Houston in the 2nd round but Michigan had previously shot 44% or better in 8 straight games! Keep in mind, the Aggies (prior to getting hot in the first two games of this tourney) were held under 39.4% from the field in 3 straight games. I am not sold on this Aggies team but the world is and that has created value that is truly off the charts here with a Wolverines team that was seeded #3 with good reason! Big value here. 10* MICHIGAN |
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03-22-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Nevada -118 | 69-68 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #816 Thursday 8* Nevada Wolf Pack (-) vs Loyola (IL) Ramblers @ 7:05 ET - The Ramblers have become everyone's underdog to root for in this tourney no doubt but sports betting is about value and winning and certainly not about rooting interest. That said, this is a fantastic line value on Nevada. The Wolf Pack just showed incredible resiliency in their come back win over Cincinnati. If they can come back from 21 down midway through the 2nd half against a top team like the Bearcats, there is no doubt that if Loyola is even fortunate enough to get a lead here in this game it certainly won't be insurmountable. Nevada is starting to believe and I know the Ramblers are a great story with their last second wins but that story ends tonight. The Wolf Pack played the tougher schedule and are a long-term 45-24 ATS versus teams with a winning record. The Ramblers have been very fortunate in their current 4-0 ATS run as their last three games have seen their opponent shoot 61.5% from the FT line in one game and 50% from the charity stripe in each of the other two games. Loyola actually allowed 48% from the field in their two NCAA Tourney games. The way Nevada shut down the Bearcats to make that huge game-ending run over the final 10 or so minutes of the game carries over here. The OT win over Texas and the amazing comeback versus a quality Cincy team shows that you're team of destiny is likely to be the Wolf Pack in this tourney, not the Ramblers as this one is NOT going to come down to a shot in the final seconds of the game. 8* NEVADA |
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03-21-18 | Western Kentucky +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 92-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #765 Wednesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 8 ET - Even though the Cowboys had a shot at the cover versus Stanford Wednesday, they certainly were fortunate to even have that end-game opportunity as they were unimpressive again. For the 4th straight game Oklahoma State was held under 41% from the field. I look for the cold shooting to catch up with them here because Western Kentucky comes into this game red hot. The Hilltoppers have shot better than 53.5% in each of their two games in this tournament and it is not like they played push-overs. Western Kentucky faced Boston College and USC. Also, prior to allowing 46.8% from the field against the Trojans, the Hilltoppers had held each of their 3 prior opponents to 38.5% or less from the field. Western Kentucky allowed just 59.3 points per game in those 3 contests. The Hilltoppers are 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and also are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. The Cowboys are 2-9 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Also, Oklahoma State has gone 0-3 ATS this season when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY |
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03-20-18 | Penn State +2.5 v. Marquette | Top | 85-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #665 Tuesday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) @ Marquette Golden Eagles @ 7 ET - Yes Marquette has home court edge but there is a reason they opened at nearly a pick'em in this game. Now that the line is all the way up to a 2.5 as of early gameday morning it is "go time" with this one. The big edge the Nittany Lions have here is on the defensive end. Additionally, Penn State is loaded with confidence because they've notched a number of significant victories away from home this season. PSU just got a big win at Notre Dame here in the NIT and, previous to this, the Nittany Lions defeated Ohio State 3 times this season (including on a neutral floor and in Columbus) and they also lost at Purdue by just 3 points! Penn State has proven multiple times that they can raise their level away from home against top quality competition. The Golden Eagles shoot the 3-ball well but so too do the Nittany Lions. The key is on the defensive end where Penn State has allowed less than 30.9% from beyond the arc in 4 of their last 6 games. By comparison, Marquette has given up 35% or more from three point land in 8 of their last 11 games! On the season the Golden Eagles are allowing a dozen points more per game than PSU is. The Nittany Lions are 10-4 ATS in tournament games and 7-2 ATS their last 9 games versus teams that averaged 77 points or more per game. Marquette is 6-12 ATS this season after allowing 80 points or more in their prior game. 10* PENN STATE |
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03-19-18 | Stanford v. Oklahoma State -7.5 | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #618 Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 7 ET - This is a #2 vs #3 match-up in the NIT and the line may seem high given the small difference in seeding between these teams. However, don't be fooled, the Cowboys should absolutely win this game by double digits. Oklahoma State shot very poorly versus Florida Gulf Coast in the opening round but still won that game by double digits. Given that the Cowboys are again at home and off of a rare poor shooting performance, I expect a big game from Oklahoma State on the offensive end. As for the other end of the floor, the Cowboys have been playing much better than the Cardinal. OSU has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 41.7% or less from the field. Stanford, on the other hand, has allowed 44.7% or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The Cardinal have allowed 83 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. The Cowboys have given up 68 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. Oklahoma State has covered 6 of their last 7 games. Stanford is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 true road games. The Cardinal are 3-11 ATS their last 14 non-conference games. The Cowboys are 9-5 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s and they get the job done again here. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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03-18-18 | Florida State +6 v. Xavier | Top | 75-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Sunday 10* Top Play Florida State Seminoles (+) vs Xavier Musketeers @ 8:40 ET - Here we go again. The odds makers, in the eyes of the public and therefore the betting markets, don't know what they're doing. After all, why would they make #1 seed Xavier only a 4 point favorite over the #9 seed Florida State? Guys I have said it many times before and I'll say it again. The odds makers are sharp. They know what they're doing. That doesn't mean that a method like this works all the time (because crazy things do happen in games from time to time as we all know) but the point is that this method does work quite often. That method is being contrarian and, of course, everyone has pounded on the #1 seed Musketeers here and driven this line all the way up to a 6 as of gameday morning. I'll gladly grab the other side and take the generous points. The Seminoles have more than enough to make up for the potential absence of Terance Mann and played Friday's game looking like the team they were early this season. Remember the Noles were 12-2 in early January after a win over North Carolina. This is a talented team that is very dangerous when they raise their game to another level and they proved that to be true again with their dominating effort versus Missouri in round one. Xavier is just 1-3 ATS in neutral court games this season and FSU is a long-term 6-1 ATS as a neutral court dog of 3.5 to 6 points AND all 6 of those wins were OUTRIGHT wins! Another potential upset here but at least a cover the way I handicap this one! 10* FLORIDA STATE |
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03-18-18 | Clemson v. Auburn -119 | Top | 84-53 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Marquee Mauling - Rickenbach CBB Game #724 Sunday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (-) vs Clemson Tigers @ 7:10 ET - With this money line available at -120 as of early Sunday morning I would certainly recommend playing the money line for those of you that have access to it. Auburn went 21-6 SU this season versus teams with a winning record. Clemson went only 6-8 SU their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Keep in mind that poor stretch for Clemson relates closely to the time period that Donte Grantham has been out. The forward was lost for the season with an ACL injury and Clemson was a different team when he was on the floor. Auburn is on a 5-game ATS losing streak but there is no spread to be concerned with here with this line at virtually a pick'em. That said, I look for Auburn to improve to 14-1 SU this season in non-conference games. 10* AUBURN |
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03-18-18 | Texas A&M v. North Carolina -6 | 86-65 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #710 Sunday 8* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 5:15 ET - The Aggies shot the ball surprisingly well and still barely covered versus Providence in their round one win. I am not sold on Texas A & M just yet. Keep in mind they had been held under 39.4% from the field in each of their 3 games prior to the win over the Friars. Also, the Aggies had been held to 30% or less from 3-point land in 5 of their 7 prior games. Now Texas A & M faces a Tar Heels team that averages 82 points per game and is shooting 36.6% from beyond the arc on the season. UNC didn't cover against Lipscomb in the opening round but of course they didn't care, that was just a "win and move on" game and they were looking ahead to this tougher game that would be against Providence or the Aggies. Enter Texas A & M and North Carolina will be ready. They're playing their best basketball of the season and have won 10 of their last 13 games. The Heels non-cover versus Lipscomb was just their 4th ATS loss in those 13 games. Aggies 10-16 ATS as an underdog. UNC 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS in March games. This is the time of year when the Tar Heels kick things up a notch and I really like them to make a run in this year's post-season as their entire starting five is made up of upperclassmen. 8* NORTH CAROLINA |
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03-18-18 | Butler +3.5 v. Purdue | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #713 Sunday 8* Butler Bulldogs (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 12:10 ET - The Bulldogs lost by 15 to Purdue in mid-December despite a huge edge in offensive rebounds and despite having 18 more field goal attempts. Butler is a long-term 26-9 ATS in NCAA Tournament games and that includes 5-1 ATS in recent seasons. Purdue is 5-12 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140s this season. Don't you find it interesting that the #2 seed Boilermakers opened as only a 3.5 point favorite over a #10 seed Bulldogs team? Precisely! You know where I am going with this. It is the type of contrarian play I love. The masses will be lining up on the small favorite and I am grabbing the points! 8* BUTLER |
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03-17-18 | Florida +2 v. Texas Tech | Top | 66-69 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
NCAA 2nd Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #533 Saturday 10* Top Play Florida Gators (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 8:40 ET - The Gators had some slip-ups this season but when they come to play they can play with anybody. That said, their performance against St Bonaventure in Round 1 showed me they're ready to go here in the Big Dance. Keep in mind, Florida beat Cincinnati, Kentucky, and Texas A & M in the regular season plus also beat Gonzaga by 6 and lost to Duke by just 3 points! Texas Tech's 10 point win over Stephen F Austin is the perfect example of a deceiving final score as the Lumberjacks were really in that game most of the way against the Red Raiders. It was the 8th straight Texas Tech game where the Red Raiders did not cover and I expect this one to make it 9 in a row. Keep in mind, TT entered that game on a 2-5 SU run and that included losses to West Virginia twice and Kansas as well. The point is that the Red Raiders have had trouble against the top teams in the nation and they're in trouble again here in my opinion. Texas Tech is on a 5-13 ATS run against teams with a winning record! The Gators are a long-term 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS versus Big 12 opponents and also an overall 12-4 ATS in games on a neutral court with a line between pick'em and +3. They get the job done again here! 10* FLORIDA |