Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-01-23 | Kings +105 v. Seattle Kraken | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Kings have gotten nothing out of their current road trip, dropping consecutive decisions in Calgary and Edmonton, scoring a grand total of one goal along the way (and none in the last five periods). We're talking about a small sample size when it comes to this team struggling and I'm confident we'll see them bounce back on Saturday in Seattle. Note that Los Angeles hasn't lost three games in a row since mid-January. Meanwhile, Seattle checks in off a blowout win over the lowly Ducks on Thursday but hasn't won consecutive games since reeling off five straight wins in late February-early March. The Kraken are winless at 0-6 when playing at home after giving up one goal or less in their previous contest this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. The Kings on the other hand are 22-15 when coming off a road loss and 34-21 after dropping two of their last three games over the last two seasons. This is undoubtedly a game Los Angeles has had circled on its calendar having dropped all three previous meetings in this series this season, including a wild 9-8 defeat on home ice back on November 29th. Keep in mind, the Kings went 3-1 against the Kraken in Seattle's inaugural NHL campaign last season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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03-30-23 | Rangers v. Devils -124 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New Jersey over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. While I've been high on the Rangers in the second half of the season that doesn't mean that I won't look for spots to fade the Blueshirts. Off three consecutive wins, I see this as an ideal spot to go against New York and we'll do so by backing a desperate Devils team that has run into some resistance going 2-6 over their last eight contests. It's certainly not time to push the panic button in the swamp. New Jersey has already clinched a playoff spot and remains within striking distance of the first-place Hurricanes in the Metropolitan Division. The Rangers completed a two-game road sweep of the Hurricanes and Panthers last week but are just 5-5 in their last 10 contests away from home. Off an ugly 5-1 loss on Long Island two nights ago, look for the Devils to bounce back on home ice. Take New Jersey (10*). |
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03-28-23 | Kings +120 v. Flames | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I have no problem going back to the well fading the Flames after missing with the Sharks on the puck-line here in Calgary on Saturday (a late empty-net goal cost us that win). Note that Calgary is just 3-7 off a home win in which it scored four or more goals this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile the Kings are 16-9 under head coach Todd McLellan after allowing six goals or more in their previous contest, which is the situation here off Sunday’s wild 7-6 win over St. Louis. The Kings took the last meeting between these two teams by an 8-2 score at home. The Flames would love to get their revenge here but I think they’re a team going nowhere right now and will gladly fade them in a favored role. Take Los Angeles (9*). |
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03-28-23 | Canucks v. Blues -105 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Vancouver at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Simple fade of the Canucks here as they come off a weekend road sweep in Dallas and Chicago. Vancouver had to hang on in the third period in both of those games but ultimately prevailed. Here, I expect the Canucks to be in tough against a Blues team that certainly hasn’t quit on the season despite being out of contention (much like Vancouver). On Sunday St. Louis fell just short in a wild 7-6 loss in Los Angeles, ending a streak of five straight games in which it collected at least a point. While the Blues are surprisingly healthy at this late stage of the season, the Canucks are banged-up and I don’t expect a peak performance from them at the end of this three-game road trip. Take St. Louis (8*). |
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03-27-23 | Seattle Kraken +118 v. Wild | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Wild sit in first place in the Central Division but the Avalanche (and the Stars) are certainly applying some pressure with both teams sitting just one point behind. Meanwhile, Seattle has to like where it sits in its second NHL campaign, currently holding down the top Wild Card spot with a seven-point cushion over the first team out of contention in the Calgary Flames. Note that the Kraken are only three points behind the Oilers for third place in the Pacific Division, holding a game-in-hand. Seattle didn't just beat Nashville on Saturday, it absolutely crushed it, scoring seven goals while outshooting the Preds by a 39-16 margin. The Kraken have scored 17 goals over their last four games. Meanwhile, Minnesota comes off a 3-1 home win over the lowly Blackhawks. I haven't been overly impressed by the Wild lately. They're 5-3 over their last eight games but none of the victories have been all that impressive, with the exception being a 2-1 win in New Jersey. They've lost two of their last three games on home ice and average just 2.9 goals per game here this season. In stark contrast, the Kraken check in averaging an impressive 3.8 goals per game on the road this season, where they've gone 24-13. Take Seattle (8*). |
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03-25-23 | Sharks +1.5 v. Flames | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Calgary at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We successfully faded the Flames in their 3-2 loss to the Golden Knights on Thursday and we'll do so again here, albeit on the puck-line with the underdog Sharks. San Jose comes off a 7-2 beatdown in Vancouver two nights ago. Keep in mind, it is just one-game removed from an overtime loss against the red hot Oilers in Edmonton so it's not as if the Sharks have completely folded at this late stage of the season. Here, San Jose will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak in this series. Note that the Flames hadn't won three consecutive meetings with the Sharks since 2015 prior to their current streak. To find the last time Calgary took four straight games against San Jose you would have to go all the way back to 2008. That's not to mention the fact that the Flames last three victories over the Sharks have all come by at least two goals. Note that San Jose is a respectable 17-15 when playing on the road after allowing three or more goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.2 goals in that spot. As bad as things have gone for them this season, they're 9-4 when playing on the road after allowing four or more goals in back-to-back games, which is also the situation here, outscoring the opposition by 0.6 goals on average along the way. We can even take it one step farther, noting that San Jose has won all four games when playing away from home after giving up five or more goals in each of its last two contests this season, as is the case here. The Sharks have outscored opponents by an impressive average margin of 2.0 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Flames season is quickly circling the drain at this point and we'll note that they're just 8-15 when coming off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that spot. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (8*). |
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03-23-23 | Golden Knights +122 v. Flames | Top | 3-2 | Win | 122 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The Flames throttled the Golden Knights by a 7-2 score, on the road no less, when these two teams last met on March 16th. I look for Vegas to get its revenge on Thursday as it goes for its third win in a row. Note that Calgary has taken consecutive meetings against Vegas only once since the Golden Knights joined the league in 2017. That came all the way back in 2018. The recent loss to the Flames was the lone blemish on an otherwise flawless record for the Knights going back to March 9th. Vegas checks in 6-1 over its last seven contests. Meanwhile, the Flames continue to struggle. They are coming off a win on Tuesday but that came at the expense of the lowly Ducks. Calgary has managed to post consecutive wins just once since January 26th. In fact, the Flames longest previous winning streak this season lasted only three games, indicating what a difficult campaign it has been. The Knights know that the finale of this western Canadian road trip will be tough as they'll face the red hot Oilers in Edmonton on Saturday. I look for them to assure themselves of a winning trip with a victory on Thursday. Take Vegas (10*). |
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03-21-23 | Golden Knights -135 v. Canucks | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Canucks swept their weekend set in California, defeating both the Kings and Ducks to improve to 7-1 over their last eight games. Of course that wasn't really part of the plan as this was a team that offloaded talent prior to the trade deadline and was once thought to be a contender in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes. Their recent run has put any talk of that to bed and while the Canucks are admittedly playing well right now, I expect them to have their hands full with the revenge-minded Golden Knights on Tuesday. Vegas dropped its most recent matchup with Vancouver by a 5-1 score on home ice way back in November. The road team has actually won four of the last five meetings in this series. Here, we'll note that Vegas has played its best hockey on the road this season where it has gone 21-12 while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 goals. In stark contrast, the Canucks are 16-18 on home ice where they've been outscored by 0.4 goals on average. I think the Knights made one of the more savvy pre-trade deadline deals acquiring Ivan Barbashev from the Blues in exchange for prospect Zach Dean. Barbashev has fit in nicely on the Knights top line alongside Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault. The Knights also boast one of the strongest blue lines in the NHL in my opinion - certainly among the best in terms of their top two D-pairings with Alec Martinez and Alex Pietrangelo followed by Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore. Jonathan Quick likely gets the nod between the pipes on Tuesday and while he had a bad game against the Flames in his most recent start, the Knights have gone 4-1 in his four starts since joining the team. Take Vegas (8*). |
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03-20-23 | Flames v. Kings UNDER 6 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams check into this key division matchup off a loss and in the case of the Flames it was a wild one as they fell by a 6-5 score in overtime on home ice against the Stars on Saturday. The Kings dropped an extra time decision at home as well, in a shootout at the hands of the Canucks. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 152-112 with the Kings playing at home off a home loss. While the 'over' is still 36-26-8 in all Kings games this season, we have seen signs of them reverting back to 'normal' (I use that term as they've generally been a solid 'under' bet in recent years) lately with the 'over' cashing in just two of their last eight contests. The Flames have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last three games. Only once this season have more than three consecutive games involving Calgary go 'over' the total with that five-game streak coming back in December. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-3 with the Flames playing on the road off an overtime loss over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is also 15-5 with Calgary playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.3 goals in that spot. The last two meetings between the Flames and Kings have gone 'over' the total and that's notable as we haven't seen three straight matchups in this series go 'over' since way back in 2007-08 when four consecutive matchups surpassed the total. The term playoff-like atmosphere generally lends itself to tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring hockey and I do think it applies here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-19-23 | Predators v. Rangers OVER 6 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Nashville and New York at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting on Sunday. 'Over' bettors were stymied by a scoreless third period between the Rangers and Penguins last night - New York's fourth 'under' result in its last five games. Keep in mind, prior to last night's shutout, the Blueshirts had allowed at least two goals in 18 of their previous 19 games. In this back-to-back spot there's obviously a good chance we see backup goaltender Jaro Halak between the pipes on Sunday. The same goes for Predators in goal after Juuse Saros turned in a terrific performance but it wasn't enough in yesterday's 3-2 overtime loss to the Jets. The Preds are reeling right now and perhaps a change of scenery will do them some good. It's worth noting that they haven't suffered any drop-off in offensive production on the road, averaging 2.9 goals per game - identical to their overall scoring average. Meanwhile, the Rangers give up 2.8 goals per game on the campaign but that average bumps up to 3.0 when coming off three or more cosnecutive wins this season, as is the case here. Note that the 'over' is 8-1 with the Preds playing on the road off three or more consecutive 'under' results over the last three seasons, which is the situation here, leading to an average total of 7.1 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-18-23 | Jets v. Predators OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Nashville at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. With both of these teams coming off poor offensive showings last time out (Winnipeg was shut out by Boston and Nashville scored just one goal in a loss to Chicago) I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Also helping our cause in terms of keeping this total low is the fact that the last two meetings in this series finished with just three goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 with the Predators coming off consecutive games that totalled four goals or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 7.3 goals in that situation. The 'over' is also a long-term 65-44 with the Jets coming off a home loss by two goals or more, which is also the situation in this spot. While the 'under' has gone 20-11-3 with the Jets playing on the road this season, their games have averaged 6.0 total goals away from home. Take the over (8*). |
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03-16-23 | Avalanche v. Senators +125 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ottawa over Colorado at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll fade the Avalanche here on the heels of three straight wins including last night's come-from-behind 2-1 shootout win in Toronto. The Senators have undoubtedly had this rematch circled on their calendar dropping a embarrassing 7-0 meeting in Colorado back in January. Ottawa enters with its playoff hopes fading fast after a disastrous 1-4 road trip out west. The Sens are back home though, where they've gone 19-14 and have outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals per game this season. Also note that Ottawa is a long-term 81-67 when coming off consecutive road losses, as is the case here. Take Ottawa (8*). |
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03-16-23 | Penguins v. Rangers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were just involved in a relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday in Pittsburgh with the Penguins prevailing by a 3-2 score in overtime. That was the second 3-2 result in as many matchups between the two squads this season. Yet here we are working with a total of 6.5 again in Thursday's rematch. That has something to do with the fact that both teams were involved in high-scoring games two nights ago. Pittsburgh dropped an ugly 6-4 decision at home against the Canadiens while the Rangers skated to a 5-3 home win over the Capitals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 12-2 with the Pens playing on the road after allowing six or more goals in their previous game over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 4.4 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rangers have posted an 11-22 o/u mark when playing at home after a home victory in which they scored four goals or more over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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03-15-23 | Islanders v. Ducks UNDER 6 | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday.
We got the result we wanted in last night's Islanders game as they fell in a relatively high-scoring affair (5-2 final score) in Los Angeles. That has afforded us a loftier total here as the Islanders look to bounce back from consecutive losses as they take on the lowly Ducks in Anaheim. Note that Anaheim does check in playing better hockey lately, holding seven of its last nine opponents to three goals or less during a 5-4 run. The Ducks are still averaging only 2.6 goals per game on home ice and don't figure to have an easy time of it in this matchup noting they've found the back of the net only four times in the last three meetings in this series. You would have to go back eight matchups between these two teams in Anaheim to find the last time they combined to score more than five goals. With the Isles offense sputtering, having scored more than three goals just four times in their last 11 games and averaging only 2.9 goals per game on the road this season, I expect that streak to remain intact on Wednesday. Take the under (8*). |
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03-15-23 | Wild v. Blues UNDER 6 | 8-5 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and St. Louis at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. While the Wild have scored a whopping 13 goals in the first three games of their current four-game road trip, they can't be trusted to produce at that level for an extended stretch, especially with Kirill Kaprizov sidelined. Note that they're just three games removed from scoring three goals or less in eight straight games. Meanwhile, the Blues have scored 12 goals over their last three contests but are also just three games removed from scoring three goals or less in eight of their previous nine games. The 'over' has cashed in their last two contests but we haven't seen three straight Blues games go 'over' the total since mid-January. Keeping in mind, the most recent matchup between these two teams totalled only three goals, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Wednesday. Take the under (8*). |
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03-14-23 | Red Wings +135 v. Predators | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Predators in an underdog role in Los Angeles on Saturday but needed a shootout to go our way to get there. In fact, Nashville needed extra time to secure both of its weekend victories against the aforementioned Kings and Ducks. Missing a number of key contributors, the Preds are playing with a small margin for error right now and I look for them to get tripped up by the Red Wings on home ice on Tuesday. Detroit has to be feeling pretty good about itself after going toe-to-toe with the best team in the league, the Boston Bruins, in a home-and-home set over the weekend. The Wings split that two-game series, only missing out on forcing overtime in the front half thanks to a late goalpost. Note that Detroit is a perfect 4-0 when playing on the road off a home victory by two goals or more this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 2.5 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, Nashville is a woeful 4-14 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here after Detroit skated to a 3-0 home victory in the two teams' first matchup back in November. Take Detroit (8*). |
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03-14-23 | Canadiens v. Penguins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Canadiens were involved in a wild 8-4 loss at the hands of the Avalanche last night. Everything was going in for Colorado in that contest as it scored three goals on its first six shots alone and was ahead 4-1 at the end of the first period. Keep in mind, the Canadiens had been keeping reasonably under control prior to that contest, having not allowed more than four goals in a game since February 25th against Ottawa. I do expect the Habs to respond with a better defensive performance here. Pittsburgh is coming off consecutive 'under' results, not to mention back-to-back victories at home against the Flyers and Rangers. The Pens are in a bit of a tricky spot here, coming off that big 3-2 overtime win over New York before heading out for consecutive games against the same Rangers at Madison Square Garden. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with Pittsburgh playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 5.0 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 23-11 with the Pens playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 5.4 goals. The 'over' did cash in the most recent meeting in this series - a 5-4 Habs win on home ice back in November but we've seen only one 'over' streak in this matchup going back to the start of the 2018-19 campaign. Take the under (10*). |
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03-13-23 | Avalanche v. Canadiens UNDER 6.5 | 8-4 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We're being afforded another 6.5 after cashing the 'under' in Colorado's most recent game - a 3-2 overtime win over the Coyotes on Saturday. The Avs, while known for their offensive prowess, have now posted six 'under' streaks (of two or more games) since the start of January, posting an 11-17-1 o/u mark over that stretch. The Habs showed a spark in February but have since gone back in the tank, losing six straight games while being held to three goals or less in all six contests. They could muster only a single goal in Saturday's home loss to the Devils. Montreal has now dipped below the 3.0 goals per game mark at home this season while Colorado checks in allowing just 2.8 goals per contest on the road. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 118-86 with the Avs coming off an overtime win while the 'under' is 31-17 with the Habs seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of only 5.6 goals. Take the under (8*). |
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03-12-23 | Senators v. Flames UNDER 6.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. The Senators have now allowed a whopping 14 goals in the first three games of their current road trip, losing two of those three contests. I do look for them to settle things down on Sunday as they face the fading Flames in Calgary. It was another disappointing result for the Flames on Friday as they fell by a 3-1 score at home against the lowly Ducks. Scoring has become a major problem for Calgary as it has tallied one goal or less in four of its last five contests. The Senators took the most recent meeting between these two teams by a 4-3 score in Ottawa back in February. That's notable as the 'under' is 14-5 with Calgary seeking revenge for a loss where the opposition scored at least four goals this season, resulting in an average total of just 5.4 goals in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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03-11-23 | Predators +147 v. Kings | 2-1 | Win | 147 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nashville over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. Few bettors want a piece of the Predators against the red hot Kings on Saturday as Nashville comes off consecutive losses on the road against non-playoff contending teams in the Canucks and Coyotes. While the Preds are banged-up right now, missing a number of key contributors, I like their chances of rising to the occasion as they catch the Kings in a bit of a flat spot off a big road win over the Avalanche two nights ago. Note that the Preds are a long-term 83-55 when coming off consecutive road losses while the Kings are just 97-120 when coming off six or seven wins in their last eight games, as is the case here. Take Nashville (8*). |
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03-11-23 | Coyotes v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. The Avalanche are coming off an awful defensive showing in a 5-2 home loss against the red hot Kings on Thursday. A visit from the lowly Coyotes should give them an opportunity to get back on track in that regard on Saturday, noting that Arizona, while coming off back-to-back wins (both at home), has averaged just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. Since scoring four goals or more in four straight games from February 18th to the 25th, the Avalanche have reached that number only twice in their last six contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is an incredible 12-1 with Colorado coming off a home loss this season, resulting in an average total of only 5.3 goals scored in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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03-09-23 | Sharks +128 v. Blues | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose over St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Sharks get an opportunity at quick revenge after dropping a 6-3 home decision against the struggling Blues last week. Most bettors will probably want no part of San Jose here after its ugly 6-0 loss in Colorado two nights ago. Despite that lopsided defeat, the Sharks are still an even 1-1 on this road trip and I'm not convinced they're the weaker team in this matchup. The Blues have essentially gone into 'tank mode' after dealing away several key pieces prior to the trade deadline. That aforementioned victory over the Sharks was their only win over their last nine games and here we'll note that they're just 14-22 when playing at home off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. Take San Jose (8*). |
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03-09-23 | Islanders +133 v. Penguins | 4-3 | Win | 133 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll fade the Penguins off their come-from-behind victory over the Blue Jackets on Tuesday. New York comes in playing arguably its best hockey of the season having won six of its last nine games including a pair of victories over Pittsburgh over that stretch. The Pens have been sieve-like defensively, allowing a whopping 39 goals over their last 10 games. Goaltender Tristan Jarry has posted a .884 save percentage over his last four games while Isles all-world netminder Ilya Sorokin owns a .943 save percentage over the same stretch. I get the revenge angle in support of the Pens here but I simply feel the Isles are the better team playing better hockey. Take New York (8*). |
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03-09-23 | Golden Knights +150 v. Lightning | 4-3 | Win | 150 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Golden Knights had their three-game winning streak snapped at the hands of the Panthers in Sunrise two nights ago but I look for them to bounce back as they complete their two-game set in Florida against the Lightning on Thursday. Tampa Bay did bust out of its slump with a 5-2 win over Philadelphia on Tuesday but faces a much more difficult challenge here. It's worth noting that the Bolts aren't even a .500 team going back to mid-January having posted a 9-12 record over their last 21 games. Even goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has shown cracks in his armor, posting a .890 save percentage over his last four games. This is a Lightning squad that has played a ton of hockey over the last few years and I think it's starting to catch up to them. Take Vegas (8*). |
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03-07-23 | Flames v. Wild -130 | 1-0 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Calgary at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Flames managed to pull out a wild 5-4 victory in Dallas last night, scoring with seven seconds remaining in the third period to secure the much-needed win. While they would certainly like to get some quick revenge against the Wild after dropping a 3-0 decision against them at home on Saturday, I don't believe they're well-positioned to do so here. Note that Calgary is just 3-10 when seeking revenge for a home loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that situation. The Wild have been a play-on team when at home off a win over the last two seasons, as is the case here, going an impressive 37-10 in that spot while outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. To illustrate just how well Minnesota has been playing lately, consider that it hasn't suffered a loss by two goals or more since February 9th. Since then, it has gone 9-3, not allowing more than three goals in any of those 12 contests. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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03-06-23 | Senators -1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Ottawa -1.5 goals over Chicago at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Senators are rolling right now, winners of five straight games with all five of those victories coming by two goals or more. We'll ride the hot streak for one more game on Monday as they head to Chicago to face the Blackhawks. This is obviously a game the Sens have had circled since dropping a 4-3 decision (after leading 3-1 in the third period) at home against the Blackhawks just a couple of weeks ago. Chicago has fallen off a cliff, predictably, since offloading talent leading up to the trade deadline. The Sens actually haven't defeated the Blackhawks since 2016 but they get their payback on Monday. Take Ottawa -1.5 goals (10*). |
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03-02-23 | Penguins v. Lightning -165 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -165 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Lightning inexplicably came out flat on Tuesday against the Panthers, falling behind 3-0 in the first period in an eventual 4-1 defeat. I certainly didn't anticipate such a poor effort from the Bolts after their embarrassing 7-3 loss in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Here, Tampa Bay has an opportunity to atone for its recent missteps as it hosts the Penguins in a quick revenge spot on Thursday. While the Penguins check in just 24-27 after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, the Lighting have gone an incredible 18-2 when coming off three losses in their last four games over the last three seasons, which is the situation they're in on Thursday. That's not to mention the fact that the Bolts have posted a terrific 28-4 record when playing at home seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 goals on average along the way. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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02-28-23 | Panthers v. Lightning -165 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -165 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Florida at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning effectively punted the second half of their back-to-back road set over the weekend as they started backup goaltender Brian Elliott in Pittsburgh on Sunday. The result was an ugly 7-3 loss. Here, I'm confident we'll see the revenge-minded Bolts bounce back against a Panthers squad that schooled them by a 7-1 score in Sunrise earlier this month. We'll note that Tampa Bay is an incredible 23-4 when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 goals in that situation. The Panthers certainly haven't been the same team on the road as they have been at home this season, going 13-20 in enemy territory while being outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals per contest. With both Sasha Barkov and Sam Bennett still on the shelf with injuries, they're going to be in tough against the Bolts, especially noting that Tampa Bay is a long-term 46-14 under head coach Jon Cooper when playing at home after giving up five goals or more in their previous contest, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.2 goals along the way. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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02-25-23 | Penguins v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and St. Louis at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting with the Penguins coming off a 7-2 beatdown at the hands of the Oilers and the Blues having blown a 2-0 third period lead in a 3-2 overtime loss to the Canucks on Thursday. Blues head coach Craig Berube called out his team following that latest setback - St. Louis' fourth straight loss. Pittsburgh checks in on a four-game losing streak as well. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 with the Penguins playing on the road after allowing six goals or more in their previous game over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.3 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-2 with the Blues playing at home off a one-goal loss at home over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 4.7 goals in that spot. Pittsburgh skated past St. Louis by a 6-2 score in the two teams' lone previous meeting this season. That was played in Pittsburgh, where the Penguins have been a considerably stronger offensive team, back in early December. The last time we saw these teams match up in St. Louis, only five total goals were scored in a one-goal Pens victory last March. Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-23 | Flames v. Golden Knights -140 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The Flames delivered a much-needed 6-3 win over the Coyotes in Arizona last night but I'm not sold on them keeping it rolling as they head to Las Vegas to take on the Golden Knights on Thursday. Vegas had its five-game winning streak stopped at the hands of the suddenly red hot Blackhawks in Chicago two nights ago. That came by way of a shootout. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Golden Knights bounce back on Thursday, noting that they've gone 17-13 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.3 goals and own a perfect 7-0 all-time record against the Flames here at T-Mobile Arena. The Flames haven't won consecutive games since January 21st and 23rd and despite last night's strong performance I still believe head coach Darryl Sutter's days are numbered behind the bench. Note that the Flames are just 7-14 after scoring four goals or more in their last game this season, outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. They're 1-5 after scoring six goals or more in their previous contest, outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that situation. Vegas, meanwhile, will be looking to improve on its terrific 29-10 record when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here after dropping a 3-2 decision in Calgary back in October. It has outscored the opposition by 1.3 goals on average in that spot. Take Vegas (10*). |
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02-23-23 | Ducks v. Capitals -1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington -1.5 goals over Anaheim at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Capitals are on a major slide right now, losers of five games in a row, scoring two goals or less in four of those contests. The last time Washington won a game by two goals or more, we were on board with a play on the Caps back on January 19th in Arizona. Since then, Washington has gone an incredible 11 straight games without securing a victory by two goals or more. The Caps longest such streak this season prior to their current one lasted only six games. The absence of Alex Ovechkin has certainly played a role. It's possible he returns to the lineup on Thursday but even if he doesn't, I'm still comfortable laying the extra goal with Washington in this spot. That's because the opposition is the Anaheim Ducks. Arguably the league's worst team, the Ducks have lost six straight contests with only one of those contests being decided by fewer than three goals. Anaheim has lost 24 of 32 road games this season, outscored by 1.8 goals per game on average along the way. The Caps are just 14-15 on home ice this season but have actually outscored their opponents by 0.2 goals on average. While Washington is still dealing with some key absences, the Ducks are arguably in worse shape, playing without the likes of Troy Terry, Adam Henrique and possibly John Klingberg as well (he's listed as questionable for Thursday's contest). Getting a win here should be 'mission critical' for the Caps as the schedule only gets tougher with a visit from the New York Rangers on deck before playing six of their next seven games on the road. Take Washington -1.5 goals (8*). |
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02-21-23 | Flyers v. Oilers -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton -1.5 goals over Philadelphia at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Flyers will look to complete the 'Alberta sweep' after defeating Calgary by a 4-3 score yesterday afternoon. I simply feel Philadelphia is in the 'wrong place at the wrong time' as it makes the short trip to Edmonton on Tuesday. The Oilers will be looking for some quick revenge after dropping a 2-1 decision in a shootout in Philadelphia on February 9th. They'll also be looking to take out their frustrations after blowing a 3-0 lead in an eventual 5-4 shootout loss to the Rangers on Friday and then coughing up another 3-0 lead, not to mention a 5-3 third period lead, in a 6-5 loss in Colorado on Sunday. All is not lost as Edmonton has collected a point in three straight and an incredible 14 of its last 15 contests. I look for the Oilers to 'get right' here noting that the Flyers had lost four games in a row prior to defeating the reeling Flames yesterday. They turned to Samuel Ersson between the pipes yesterday, improving to 6-1 in his seven starts this season. They'll likely go back to Carter Hart on Tuesday. He's had another up-and-down season and checks in having posted a less than impressive .890 save percentage with the Flyers dropping three of his last four starts including consecutive 6-2 losses in Seattle and Vancouver to start this road trip. Speaking of goaltenders, the Oilers have inexplicably given Jack Campbell the last three starts and his struggles continued as he owns a .871 save percentage over his last four starts. Unlikely All-Star Stuart Skinner should get the nod here and while the wins haven't come, he has certainly been better than Campbell, recording a .902 save percentage over his last four starts. While the Oilers could be without Evander Kane for a second straight game, the argument could be made that the Flyers are dealing with a bigger absence in Travis Konecny, who is questionable to play after missing Monday's contest in Calgary. Here, we'll note that the Flyers are a miserable 3-15 when coming off a one-goal road victory over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.2 goals in that situation. Take Edmonton -1.5 goals (10*). |
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02-18-23 | Red Wings v. Seattle Kraken UNDER 6.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Seattle at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. The Red Wings have scored a whopping 16 goals in their first three games on their current road trip. I don't expect them to have an easy time scoring as their western road swing continues in Seattle on Saturday, however. The Kraken have held eight of their last 11 opponents to three goals or less. Seattle has scored 12 goals over its last three contests but will be up against a Red Wings squad that has allowed three goals or less in nine of its last 11 games overall. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 35-21 with Detroit coming off a game in which it scored four goals or more over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals. The 'under' is also 10-2 with the Kraken coming off a game that totalled eight goals or more this season, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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02-17-23 | Stars v. Wild OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Friday. With the 'under' having cashed in each of the Stars last nine games and seven of the Wild's last eight games overall, we're starting to see adjustments from the oddsmakers with a 5.5 popping up for the third time in Dallas' last four games and for the first time in the last four games for Minnesota (the last time it did the Wild produced their most recent 'over' result). We'll go the contrarian route here as I feel this game is well-positioned to be higher-scoring than expected. Note that the Stars are operating with a small margin for error defensively right now, having allowed 34, 39, 31 and 37 shots on goal over their last four contests. The Wild had allowed 30 or more shots on goal in seven of their last eight games before holding Colorado to only 19 on Wednesday. In that contest, Minnesota flipped the script, firing 43 shots on goal but quite simply ran into a hot goaltender. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the Stars coming off five or six loses in their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.9 goals. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 with the Wild playing at home off a one-goal defeat against a division opponent, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 8.6 goals in that spot. While both teams boast hot goaltenders, I don't mind the matchup here. Stars starting netminder Jake Oettinger is having a terrific season but the Wild managed to score five goals against him just two months ago. Wild goaltender Filip Gustavsson has arguably been better than supposed number-one Marc-Andre Fleury this season but the last time the Stars saw him between the pipes they scored three goals against him (before adding an empty-netter) earlier this month. Fleury has posted a less-than-impressive .881 save percentage over his last four games. Take the over (10*). |
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02-16-23 | Flyers v. Seattle Kraken UNDER 6 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. We got the result we wanted in this same matchup on Sunday afternoon as the two teams combined to score seven goals in a Kraken road victory. I won't hesitate to back the 'under' as the scene shifts to Seattle for Thursday's rematch. Note that Kraken home games have been considerably lower-scoring than their road affairs. While their road tilts have averaged north of 7.0 goals per contest, their home games have produced an average total of only 6.0 goals with the 'under' cashing at a 16-9-1 clip. Goals haven't been easy to come by for the Flyers over the last month or so. Going back to January 19th they've scored four goals in a game only once (in a game that totalled just four goals), three goals three times and two goals or less on six occasions. It's a similar story for Seattle. It has produced four goals or more three times since January 16th, three goals twice and two goals or less in seven contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-3 with the Flyers playing on the road off an 'over' result this season, leading to an average total of 5.2 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-2 with the Kraken coming off a one-goal loss this season, which is the case here, producing an average total of 5.6 goals in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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02-14-23 | Penguins -150 v. Sharks | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Sharks on Sunday in Washington but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade them as they return home to host the Penguins on Tuesday. Pittsburgh is coming off an ugly 6-0 loss in Los Angeles on Saturday, evening its record at 1-1 on its current western road trip. This is undoubtedly a game the Pens have had circled since dropping a 6-4 decision at home against the Sharks on January 28th (as -230 favorites). While San Jose has enjoyed some success on the road this season it is just 5-18 on home ice, where it has been outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal per contest. The Sharks have won consecutive games only three times previously this season and I don't expect them to accomplish that feat here. Note that Pittsburgh is a long-term 87-75 when playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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02-14-23 | Hurricanes v. Capitals OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. UPDATE: Alex Ovechkin has been ruled OUT for the Capitals. While that obviously makes me a little less confident in the play, I still like the price and the situation. The first meeting between these two teams this season was a relatively low-scoring affair as the Hurricanes skated to a 3-2 home victory on Halloween Night. It's worth noting that we haven't seen consecutive matchups between the Canes and Capitals stay 'under' the total since a playoff series back in 2019. Here, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. Both teams are coming off poor showings offensively. The Canes dropped a 6-2 decision on home ice against the Rangers on Saturday while the Capitals fell by a 4-1 score at home against the Sharks on Sunday. Note that the 'over' is 12-4 with Carolina coming off six or seven wins in its last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 6.8 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 34-18 with Washington seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 6.6 goals in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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02-13-23 | Red Wings v. Canucks -115 | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vancouver over Detroit at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Canucks get a quick revenge opportunity here after dropping a 5-2 decision in Detroit on Saturday afternoon. Vancouver can't be too disappointed by a 1-3 eastern road trip that also saw it lose in overtime in New Jersey, by a single goal against the Rangers in Manhattan and secure a wild 6-5 win on Long Island. Detroit checks in off consecutive victories and having won four of its last six games overall. That actually puts it in an awful situation here, however, noting that it has gone a miserable 1-13 when coming off four or five wins in its last six contests over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 goals in that spot. While the Red Wings have been playing well lately, most of their success has come at home. Note that Detroit is just 9-14 on the road this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals along the way. Take Vancouver (8*). |
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02-12-23 | Sharks +1.5 v. Capitals | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Washington at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the insurance goal with the Sharks on Sunday as they conclude their long road trip in Washington. San Jose has been playing some of its best hockey of the season which I realize isn't saying a whole lot. The Sharks check in off a 4-1 loss to the Panthers in Florida but that was their first loss by more than a single goal in five games. On this trip, they've won games in Pittsburgh and Tampa. You would have to go back seven games to find the last time the Capitals won a game by more than a single goal. They're in a prime letdown spot here after securing a 2-1 win over arguably the league's best team in Boston yesterday. Note that the Caps are just 13-20 when playing at home off a win over the last two seasons and 9-16 when hosting a game off two victories in their last three contests over the same stretch, which is the case here, outscored by 0.2 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Sharks are 27-24 after giving up three goals or more in three straight games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.1 goals on average in that situation. There's no intimidation factor at play here as the Sharks are 2-1 in their last three trips to Washington with the lone loss coming by a single goal. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (8*). |
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02-11-23 | Rangers v. Hurricanes UNDER 6.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in the Rangers high-scoring victory over the Kraken last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. New York has now seen a season-high three straight games go 'over' the total, which is affording us a fairly generous total on Saturday in Carolina. Note that the 'under' is 21-10 with the Rangers playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in a home victory over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes will be playing for the first time in 10 days following an extended All-Star break. The 'under' is 29-17 with the Canes playing on home ice off a win over the last two seasons, which is the situation here, resulting in an average total of 5.4 goals. Finally, we'll note that the Rangers give up just 2.3 goals per game on the road this season while the Canes have held the opposition to 2.7 goals per contest at home. Expect goals to come at a premium on Saturday night in Raleigh. Take the under (8*). |
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02-10-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen consecutive Rangers home games go easily 'over' the total since the All-Star break, with New York securing one-goal victories over Calgary and Vancouver earlier this week. Here, I think we're well-positioned for a lower-scoring affair as the Blueshirts host the struggling Kraken. New York has scored nine goals (eight in regulation time) in its last two contests but I'm not sure that type of offensive production is sustainable, noting that it is still averaging just 3.0 goals per game on home ice this season. Save for a six-goal outburst against the Canucks on January 25th, Seattle has had a tough time finding the back of the net lately, held to three goals or less in seven of its last nine games and two goals or less in six of those contests. This doesn't figure to be an ideal breakout spot given the Kraken have scored just six goals in three all-time meetings with the Rangers. In fact, all three previous matchups between these non-conference foes have produced five total goals or fewer including a 3-2 Kraken victory on home ice earlier this season. Note that the 'under' is 15-5 with the Rangers playing at home after scoring three goals or more in three straight games over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of just 5.2 goals. The 'under' is also 23-12 with New York playing at home after winning four of its last five contests over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 5.3 goals in that situation. Finally, the 'under' has cashed all five times the Rangers have come off consecutive 'over' results this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-09-23 | Avalanche v. Lightning -114 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Colorado at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Lightning have obviously had this game circled since getting dispatched in six games in last year's Stanley Cup Final. Not only that but the Bolts enter this game on a season-long two-game losing streak. I'm confident we'll see them bounce back here as they catch the Avalanche coming off two losses in their last three games themselves. Note that the Lightning are an incredible 33-7 when playing at home off a loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. Better still, they're 18-2 when playing at home off two losses in their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 goals on average in that spot. Under head coach Jon Cooper, Tampa Bay has posted a 167-94 record when coming off a game in which it allowed four goals or more, which is also the situation here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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02-07-23 | Oilers v. Red Wings +1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -165 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams went into the All-Star break heading in opposite directions with the Oilers coming off a 7-3 thrashing of the Blackhawks and the Red Wings dropping a 2-0 decision against the Islanders. Here, I'll gladly grab the insurance goal with Detroit at home. Note that Edmonton is just 13-18 when coming off six or seven wins in its last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.1 goal in that situation. This season, the Oilers have gone 7-11 when coming off a win by two or more goals, only managing to outscore opponents by 0.1 goal on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Red Wings are 12-7 when playing on home ice after being held to a goal or less in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.1 goal in that spot. The home team went 2-0 in this series last season with both teams tallying a total of nine goals. Take Detroit +1.5 goals (8*). |
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01-28-23 | Sabres v. Wild -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 goals over Buffalo at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Sabres have reeled off five straight wins, including three in a row to open their current road trip. I look for them to get tripped up in Minnesota on Saturday, however. Note that Buffalo has now put together a season-high streak of six straight games without getting outscored by two goals or more. Here, they run into a tough spot as the Wild have been an excellent 'positive momentum' play in recent years. Minnesota checks in an incredible 16-2 when coming off a home win by one goal over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.1 goals on average in that spot. The Wild are also 21-6 when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. Having dropped all three meetings in this series going back to the start of last season, I look for the Wild to get some payback here. Take Minnesota -1.5 goals (8*). |
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01-28-23 | Golden Knights v. Islanders OVER 6 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and New York at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams were involved in relatively low-scoring affairs last night with the Golden Knights dropping a 4-1 decision to the Rangers in Manhattan and the Islanders skating to a 2-0 win over the Red Wings here on Long Island. I expect a much higher-scoring game to play out as the two teams match up on Saturday. Note that the 'over' is 10-2 with the Knights seeking revenge for a loss by three goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals (the Isles defeated the Knights 5-2 in Las Vegas earlier this season). The 'over' has gone 11-3 with the Islanders having lost four of their last five games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 6.6 goals in that spot. The last time these two teams met on Long Island last season, they combined to score seven goals. I expect more of the same here. Take the over (8*). |
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01-28-23 | Canadiens v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Senators exploded for six goals in an upset win over the Maple Leafs in Toronto last night. Keep in mind, they had been held to a grand total of four goals over their previous three contests. They haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since January 12th and 14th. Montreal is coming off a high-scoring game of its own as it fell by a 4-3 score in overtime against Detroit on Thursday (we won with the 'over' in that game). We can expect them to go back to Sam Montembault between the pipes on Saturday and that should bode well as he's posted a .912 save percentage over his last four starts with the 'under' going 2-1-1 in those four contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 37-17 with the Canadiens playing on the road off consecutive home losses. The 'under' has also gone 23-13 with the Senators playing at home against a division opponent over the last two seasons. Take the under (8*). |
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01-27-23 | Golden Knights v. Rangers OVER 6 | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher scoring contest than most are expecting on Friday in Manhattan. The Golden Knights check in off consecutive losses to open their current road trip. In those two games they could muster only three goals against the Coyotes and Devils. Still, this is a team that averages an impressive 3.7 goals per game on the road this season, where it has posted a 15-7 record. The Rangers took the first meeting between these two teams this season by a 5-1 score in Las Vegas back in early December. That's notable as the 'over' has gone a perfect 6-0 with Vegas seeking revenge for a home loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.4 goals in that situation. The 'over' is also a long-term 17-6 with the Golden Knights having lost six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here, leading to 7.1 total goals on average in that spot. The Rangers held a 2-1 lead until the final five minutes of the third period in Toronto two nights ago but ultimately gave up the tying goal and then the winner in overtime in a 3-2 setback. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 15-6 with the Rangers returning home off a road loss over the last three seasons, good for an average total of 7.0 goals scored in that situation. New York knows it can't just sit on a lead again the way it did in Toronto two nights ago. Expect a more aggressive gameplan from the Blueshirts as they look to head into an extended All-Star break on a high note. Take the over (8*). |
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01-26-23 | Red Wings v. Canadiens OVER 6 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Canadiens sat back and defended, waiting for the Bruins to make a mistake and perhaps open up a scoring opportunity on Tuesday night (they ended up with only 22 shots on goal). The strategy worked well for the first two periods but Montreal ultimately fell by a 4-2 score. Here, I expect the Habs to employ a different strategy against a Red Wings squad that checks in allowing 3.8 goals per game on the road this season. Detroit has been stuck in the mud offensively, scoring three goals or less in six straight games. I do see this as an excellent opportunity to break out against a Montreal team that gives up 3.7 goals per contest on home ice. Yes, the Habs are missing a number of key contributors up front, leaving them in tough offensively but as we saw against the Bruins, guys like Nick Suzuki and Kirby Dach are more than capable of generating scoring chances and here, they'll have the benefit of facing a more beatable goaltender in Ville Husso (.897 save percentage in 11 road games this season) than they saw in standout Bruins netminder Jeremy Swayman two nights ago. Take the over (8*). |
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01-25-23 | Hurricanes v. Stars -102 | 3-2 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Carolina at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. This is undoubtedly a game the Stars have had circled since dropping a 5-4 decision in Raleigh earlier this season. Dallas is well-positioned to get its revenge here, noting that it has gone 13-9 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 1.0 goal per contest. With that being said, the Stars aren't likely to take anything for granted after dropping a 3-2 decision against the Sabres on home ice on Monday. Carolina has won four of its last five games overall including two in a row heading into this non-conference clash. Note that the Hurricanes are just 7-13 when playing on the road after winning four of their last five games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that situation. Worse still, the Canes are 7-20 in their last 27 road games when coming off consecutive wins by three goals or more, which is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that spot. Take Dallas (8*). |
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01-24-23 | Bruins v. Canadiens OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The talk in Montreal these days is more about who's not playing than who is. The Canadiens are as beaten up as any team in the league right now injury-wise, but continue to battle hard, as evidenced by Saturday's come-from-behind 3-2 overtime win over the Maple Leafs. Here, they'll face another tough test at home against the Bruins in what will be the first meeting between these division rivals this season. Boston enters having allowed just two goals over its last four games, all victories. It posted a 4-0 shutout win over the Sharks on Sunday and that's notable as it has gone 4-9, allowing an average of 3.5 goals (good for a total of 6.7 goals) when coming off a shutout win over the last three seasons. Also note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with Boston playing on the road coming off four straight wins by two goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 7.5 goals in that spot. The Bruins saw Canadiens goaltender Sam Montembault twice last season, scoring four goals on him on each occasion (they added an empty-netter for good measure in both games as well). Take the over (10*). |
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01-23-23 | Panthers v. Rangers -130 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Florida at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark fading the Panthers on Saturday as they outplayed the Wild in a 5-3 home victory. Here, I won't hesitate to come back with the same play as Florida hits the road to face the Rangers in Manhattan. The Panthers have now won consecutive games but consistency hasn't exactly been their calling card this season as they've yet to put together more than two victories in a row. They'll be hard-pressed to do so again here in my opinion as they catch the Rangers well-rested and undoubtedly in a foul mood after dropping a 3-1 decision against the league's best team, the Boston Bruins, last Thursday night. It's worth noting that the Rangers haven't dropped consecutive games since December 27th and 29th with the second of those losses coming by way of a shootout against the Lightning in Tampa. Here, they'll catch the Panthers banged-up with Eric Staal, Sergei Bobrovsky, Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad all suffering injuries in the last week. Goaltender Spencer Knight is expected to be back between the pipes after missing time due to injury, but that's not necessarily a good thing as he has posted a less-than-impressive .893 save percentage with the Panthers winning just four of his 10 starts on the road this season. Rangers all-world netminder Igor Shesterkin has been heating up lately, recording a sterling .922 save percentage over his last four games. Take New York (10*). |
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01-22-23 | Jets v. Flyers OVER 6.5 | 5-3 | Win | 107 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a bit of a 'slingshot' effect from the Jets offensively last night as they rebounded after being held to a single goal in consecutive games (both losses) in Montreal and Toronto with a five-goal outburst in Ottawa last night. I expect a similar situation to unfold regarding the Flyers here after they were limited to just three goals in their last two contests against the Blackhawks and Red Wings. Note that Philadelphia is averaging 2.9 goals per game on home ice this season and is likely to catch Jets backup goaltender David Rittich on Sunday, noting that he represents a considerable drop-off in talent from regular starter Connor Hellebuyck, who is a Vezina Trophy candidate (and former winner). Likewise, the Jets will likely see the Flyers backup goaltender Felix Sandstrom after Carter Hart started last night's game. Sandstrom owns a less-than-impressive .888 save percentage in eight games this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 7-1 with the Flyers coming off consecutive 'under' results this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 7.7 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 18-8 with Philadelphia coming off a game that totalled three goals or less over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.9 goals in that situation. Take the over (8*). |
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01-21-23 | Wild +102 v. Panthers | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Florida at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. The Wild dropped a 5-2 decision in Carolina two nights ago but I'm confident we'll see them bounce back as they head to Florida to face the Panthers on Saturday. Note that Minnesota remains a winning team on the road this season, where it has held the opposition to just 2.6 goals per game. Meanwhile, consistency certainly hasn't been the Panthers calling card, noting that their longest win streak this season lasted just two games. They're 0-7 when coming off a win over a division opponent this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.4 goals in that situation. Minnesota will be a revenge-minded team here having dropped the last three meetings in this series. That's the Panthers longest win streak over the Wild all-time, going all the way back to when Minnesota entered the league as an expansion team back in 2000. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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01-19-23 | Capitals -1.5 v. Coyotes | 4-0 | Win | 145 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington -1.5 goals over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll back the Capitals on the puck-line in this spot as they look to bounce back from a poor performance in a 4-2 home loss to the Wild two nights ago. That was a tough situation for Washington as it was returning home on no rest after rallying from a 3-0 deficit to defeat the Islanders 4-3 in overtime on Long Island the night previous. I expect a much sharper performance from Washington here as it begins a three-game western road swing. While the Caps won by just a single goal on the road against the Isles earlier this week, I'm willing to lay the extra goal here noting that Washington's 11 road victories this season have come by 3, 3, 4, 1, 3, 3, 4, 1, 4, 4 and 1 goal this season (you get the idea). Arizona is coming off a 4-3 victory over the reeling Red Wings on home ice but that only served to snap an nine-game losing streak. The Coyotes are allowing 3.5 goals per game at Mullett Arena this season, where five of their last six losses have come by at least two goals. Under head coach Peter Laviolette, the Capitals have gone 13-4 when playing on the road after giving up three goals or more in three consecutive games, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. Take Washington -1.5 (8*). |
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01-18-23 | Bruins v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 105 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Bruins exploded for six goals in Monday's easy shutout win over the Flyers. I do expect them to find the going a little tougher on Wednesday as they travel to Long Island, where they've scored a grand total of 12 goals in their last nine trips. New York is coming off a 4-3 overtime loss against Washington on Monday (we won with the Capitals in that game), blowing a 3-0 lead in that contest. The Isles are still giving up just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season and the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 when they play at home off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 3.8 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 20-9 with New York at home off a loss in which it allowed four goals or more over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 4.8 goals in that situation. In the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season Boston won 4-3 in a shootout. It's worth noting that Jake Debrusk scored two goals and added an assist for the B's in that victory. He's currently sidelined with a leg injury. Take the under (10*). |
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01-17-23 | Jets -1.5 v. Canadiens | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg -1.5 goals over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the Canadiens on the puck-line after they pulled off a 2-1 upset victory over the Rangers in New York on Sunday. Note that they'll be playing their third game in four nights in three different cities here on Monday, and they'll do so with a number of key contributors suddenly sidelined with injuries, including Joel Armia, Juraj Slafkovski and Jake Evans. Note that the Habs have gone three games without losing by two goals or more - their longest such streak of the season. I expect that run to end here as the Jets come in playing their best hockey of the season, winners of eight of their last nine games, outscoring the opposition by a 35-24 margin over that stretch. They've allowed a grand total of just four goals over their last three games. This is a matchup Winnipeg has thrived in since the start of last season, taking all three meetings while outscoring Montreal by a 15-8 margin. Take Winnipeg -1.5 goals (10*). |
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01-16-23 | Capitals +100 v. Islanders | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:35 pm et on Monday. I'm not buying what the Islanders are selling right now. Sure, they snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over the Canadiens on home ice on Saturday but that victory was about as unimpressive as it gets. New York jumped ahead 2-0 in the game's first seven minutes but then never found the back of the net, and played generally uninspired hockey, for the rest of the contest. Here, the Isles will be hosting a desperate Capitals squad looking to snap its own two-game skid off consecutive upset losses at the hands of the Flyers. While Washington is just 10-12 on the road this season, it has managed to outscore opponents by 0.2 goals on average in the visitor's role. New York is 13-8 at UBS Arena but has looked anything but intimidating on home ice lately, going an even 4-4 over its last eight games on home ice. Worse still, the Isles check in a miserable 8-13 in their last 21 games overall. Here, we'll note that New York is 0-6 after scoring two goals or less in five or more consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.0 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Caps are 114-100 (but most notably +222 net games) when playing on the road after scoring one goal or less in their previous game going all the way back to 1996. Take Washington (10*). |
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01-14-23 | Canadiens v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and New York at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Fairly straight-forward play here as I believe this total will prove too low with the Habs visiting the Islanders on Saturday. We should see something of a 'sling-shot' effect in terms of the Isles as they bust out after getting held down by two terrific defensive opponents in the Stars and Wild to open this homestand. With that being said, I don't have a lot of trust in the Isles to make things easy on themselves here, and that should lead to some scoring opportunities for the Habs. Montreal has sandwiched five and four-goal performances against the Blues and Predators around a shutout loss against the Kraken over the last week. The Habs haven't suffered much of a drop-off in offensive production on the road this season, averaging 2.6 goals per contest. The bad news, they're allowing a whopping 3.7 goals per game in a visitor's role. New York has scored just five goals during its four-game losing streak but is well-positioned to bounce back here, noting that it averages 3.0 goals per game on home ice this season. Take the over (8*). |
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01-12-23 | Panthers v. Golden Knights -128 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Florida at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll fade the Panthers off Tuesday's thrilling 5-4 win over the Avalanche in Denver. Florida blew a 4-1 third period lead in the span of just six minutes in that game, but was rescued by Matthew Tkachuk's second goal of the game with 3:30 remaining to secure the win. The Panthers check in allowing 3.5 goals per game this season with that average rising to 3.7 going back to December 10th. While they've managed to go 2-1 on their current road trip that doesn't tell the whole story as they've been outscored 11-9 and remain just 9-14 away from home this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals. For the Golden Knights, this will be their first game action since January 7th when they dropped an ugly 5-1 decision against the Kings on home ice. That loss brought an end to a three-game winning streak that saw Vegas outscore the opposition 13-8. The Knights are just 12-10 on home ice this season but will have a good opportunity to improve on that mark over the next couple of weeks as they'll play each of their next five contests here on The Strip. While Florida has given up five goals or more in four of its last 10 games, Vegas' most recent contest marked the first time in nine games that it had allowed that many goals. I think we see a 'sling-shot' effect from the Knights here, who you can be sure are itching to get back on the ice after an extended layoff (and that most recent embarrassing loss). The home team has won all but one of eight previous all-time meetings in this series (Vegas won that game 7-2 in Sunrise) and we'll call for that trend to continue on Thursday. Take Vegas (8*). |
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01-10-23 | Panthers v. Avalanche -126 | 5-4 | Loss | -126 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Florida at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Avalanche in an underdog role in Edmonton on Saturday and I won't hesitate to come right back with them as they return home to face the Panthers on Tuesday. I don't believe this will be a 'one-and-done' situation when it comes to the Avs winning ways. Keep in mind, prior to Saturday's come-from-behind overtime victory, they had lost five straight games. They're just 9-10 on home ice this season but have managed to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.1 goal. Florida on the other hand has gone an abysmal 8-14 on the road, outscored by 0.9 goals on average along the way. Take Colorado (8*). |
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01-10-23 | Flames -155 v. Blues | 3-4 | Loss | -155 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary over St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Flames as they look to get back on track following a disappointing overtime loss in Chicago on Sunday. Here, we'll fade the Blues off their stunning 3-0 win in Minnesota on Sunday. Keep in mind, the night previous we saw St. Louis skate to a 5-4 defeat at the hands of the lowly Canadiens. The Blues haven't managed to win consecutive games since mid-December. It's a different story for the Flames, who haven't lost consecutive games since mid-December. While they're just 7-13 on the road this season, they've actually been outscored by only 0.2 goals on average. Meanwhile, the Blues are 7-10 at home this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals. Take Calgary (8*). |
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01-10-23 | Devils v. Hurricanes -145 | 5-3 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Devils on Saturday as they rallied from a 3-1 third period deficit to defeat the rival Rangers 4-3 in overtime. It was a fortunate win to be sure as the Rangers appeared to be in complete control for more than two-thirds of that contest. Here, we'll go the other way and fade the Devils as they head to Raleigh to face a Hurricanes squad that will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak. In fact, the Canes most recent win came against these same Devils by way of a shootout in Newark back on New Year's Day. While New Jersey has enjoyed plenty of road success this season, one of its three losses came on this ice. You would have to go back five meetings, all the way to 2019 to find the last time the Devils skated to a win over the Canes away from home. Take Carolina (8*). |
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01-07-23 | Avalanche +105 v. Oilers | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Avalanche are reeling right now, losers of five straight games including three in a row since welcoming back Nathan MacKinnon to the lineup. What better place to bounce back than Edmonton, where they've taken seven of the last 11 meetings. We actually won with the Oilers on Thursday night but see fit to fade them here, noting that they've gone a miserable 3-9 when following a win by two goals or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that situation. The Avs let one slip away after jumping ahead 2-0 on the Canucks two nights ago. I don't expect them to make the same mistake twice. Take Colorado (8*). |
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01-07-23 | Rangers v. Devils -118 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Jersey over New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade the Rangers on Saturday afternoon as they carry a three-game winning streak into Newark to face the rival Devils. New Jersey suffered a 5-3 home loss against St. Louis last time out. I like the bounce-back spot here as they've hung tough in two previous meetings with New York this season, going 1-1 in a pair of matchups played in Manhattan. We'll note that the Rangers are a woeful 6-17 when playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in three straight games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 goal in that situation. Take New Jersey (8*). |
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01-06-23 | Islanders v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The Flames are in uncharted territory from an o/u perspective, having seen the 'under' cash in five straight games - their longest such streak over the last 2+ seasons. The 'over' has gone 5-1 on the six occasions where their 'under' run reached four games over the last three campaigns, with that lone 'under' result coming in their most recent game in Winnipeg two nights ago (we won with the Jets in that contest). The 'under' has cashed in two of the Islanders first three games on their current road trip (we've successfully faded them in Seattle and Edmonton). Off a loss to the Oilers last night I do expect a better effort from the Isles here and it's worth noting that they've scored 6, 5, 5, 5, 2 and 6 goals. All three meetings between these two teams going back to last season have totalled exactly seven goals. You would have to go back six meetings here in Calgary - all the way to 2016 - to find the last time a game finished with fewer than six total goals. Take the over (10*). |
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01-05-23 | Islanders v. Oilers -150 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton over New York at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this spot sets up for the Oilers as they check in off consecutive losses (both on home ice) and host an Islanders squad that is fresh off a lopsided victory in Vancouver two nights ago. Here, we'll note that New York is a woeful 1-11 when playing on the road after scoring four goals or more away from home in its most recent contest over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.5 goals in that situation. The Oilers have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendar since dropping a 3-0 decision on Long Island back in late November. The home team has now won each of the last three meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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01-05-23 | Capitals -180 v. Blue Jackets | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Capitals coughed up a 3-2 lead in the back half of the third period and lost in overtime against the upstart Sabres two nights ago. While they've now lost two of their last three games in overtime, they've still collected at least a point in seven consecutive contests. I like their chances of adding to the Blue Jackets woes here, noting that Columbus has lost eight of its last nine games and is just 9-12 on home ice this season, where it has been outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals. While the Caps have gone 9-11 on the road, they have managed to outscore the opposition by 0.1 goal on average. Take Washington (8*). |
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01-03-23 | Flames v. Jets +104 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 104 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Calgary at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams enter this game riding two-game winning streaks but we'll choose to fade the Flames as they've been the more unreliable squad, not to mention the fact that they're just 7-10 on the road this season and will be up against a revenge-minded Jets squad. Winnipeg checks in 13-6 on home ice, where it has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.0 goal. The Flames are 2-6 when coming off consecutive wins this season and worse still, have gone 1-6 after posting victories in four or five of their last six contests here in the 22-23 campaign, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. Calgary took the first meeting between these two teams this season by a 3-2 score on home ice but it's worth noting that it hasn't won consecutive matchups in this series since the two teams met in a 'bubble' playoff series in Edmonton back in August of 2020. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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01-02-23 | Flyers v. Ducks -102 | 4-1 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Anaheim over Philadelphia at 10 pm et on Monday. We'll fade the Flyers off rare consecutive road wins over the Sharks and Kings. Philadelphia remains a woeful 6-14 on the road this season, outscored by 0.7 goals on average. Anaheim was embarrassed on home ice on Friday, dropping a 6-1 decision against the Predators. Keep in mind, the Ducks are just one game removed from a 3-2 home win over the Golden Knights. The Flyers have gone a miserable 11-30 when coming off two victories in their last three games over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.1 goal on average in that situation. Take Anaheim (8*). |
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01-02-23 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results on Saturday as Vegas prevailed by a 5-4 score in a wild one against Nashville while Colorado welcomed Nathan MacKinnon back from injury but dropped a 6-2 decision against Toronto. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair as the 'under' has gone 19-9 with Vegas playing on the road after scoring five or more goals in their previous game over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Avs coming off a home loss this season, leading to an average total of only 4.6 goals in that spot. We'll also note that the 'under' has cashed in 13 of 18 meetings between these two teams over the last three seasons, including a 3-2 Avs victory in the first matchup this season. Take the under (8*). |
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01-01-23 | Islanders v. Seattle Kraken -115 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over New York at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Kraken here after they fell by a 7-2 score against the Oilers on Friday night. That marked Seattle's third straight loss while New York has won three games in a row entering this clash. Keep in mind, all three of those Islander victories came at home. They've dropped four of their last five on the road to fall under .500 away from home this season. The Isles also check in a woeful 6-16 when playing on the road after holding consecutive opponents to two goals or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. Take Seattle (8*). |
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12-31-22 | Senators v. Red Wings +103 | 2-4 | Win | 103 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade the Senators here as they look for their third straight win following a thrilling come-from-behind overtime victory in Washington two nights ago. Credit Ottawa for rallying from a 3-1 deficit in the second of back-to-backs on Thursday but the Sens remain 7-10 on the road this season where they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals per contest. Detroit had its two-game winning streak snapped in a 6-3 loss in Buffalo on Thursday although it did show some fight after falling behind big early on. That was a classic letdown spot for Detroit after it staged a furious rally to steal a victory in overtime in Pittsburgh the night previous. Here, I look for the Wings to regroup and pull back to even on home ice this season in the process. Take Detroit (8*). |
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12-31-22 | Predators v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Vegas at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Predators exploded for six goals in a rout of the lowly Ducks last night in Anaheim but I expect a different story to unfold as they head to Las Vegas to take on the Golden Knights in a New Year's Eve matinee affair on Saturday. Keep in mind, the Preds average only 2.7 goals per game on the road this season. Golden Knights home games have been remarkably low-scoring to date this season, averaging only 5.2 total goals per contest. We'll likely see Nashville backup goaltender Kevin Lankinen get the start in the crease in this back-to-back spot but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he has performed well this season, posting a .925 save percentage in nine games. The Knights should go back to Logan Thompson between the pipes after Adin Hill started their most recent game. Thompson has recorded a .916 save percentage on the campaign. Take the under (8*). |
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12-30-22 | Panthers v. Hurricanes -170 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Florida at 7:35 pm et on Friday. We'll fade the Panthers off their seven-goal outburst against the lowly Canadiens last night. Carolina is the hottest team in the league right now, having won nine games in a row. While Florida checks in 7-12 on the road, allowing 3.7 goals per contest, Carolina has gone 11-4 on home ice, giving up just 2.7 goals per game. This is a game the Hurricanes have likely had circled on the calendar since dropping a 3-0 decision in Florida in the first meeting between the two teams this season back on November 9th. Take Carolina (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Red Wings v. Sabres -155 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll fade the Red Wings off last night's incredible comeback victory over the Penguins - their second straight win in an underdog role. Here, they'll face a red hot Sabres squad that has reeled off four consecutive victories and are already 2-0 in this series this season, scoring a whopping 13 goals in the process. Note that Detroit has played road games on back-to-back nights just nine times over the last three seasons, as is the case here, and has been outscored by 1.5 goals on average in that situation, allowing 4.7 goals per game. Take Buffalo (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Senators v. Capitals -165 | 4-3 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll fade the Senators off Tuesday's upset win over the Bruins. The Capitals are red hot, winners of five in a row and 10 of their last 11 games overall with Alex Ovechkin stealing the spotlight as he chases Wayne Gretzky's all-time goals record. Everything is clicking for the Caps right now as they've scored four or more goals in eight of their last 10 games and held nine of their last 11 opponents to two goals or less. The Sens snapped a three-game losing streak on Tuesday but that was at home. They're 6-10 on the road this season where they've been outscored by 0.6 goals per game on average. Meanwhile, Washington is 11-6 on home ice, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 goals on average. Take Washington (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Rangers v. Lightning -128 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I think this is a game the Lightning have had circled since dropping a 3-1 decision in New York way back on the opening night of the season. As healthy as they've been all season, I feel the Bolts are poised to go on a run and last night's 4-1 victory over the Canadiens could serve as the perfect jumping off point. New York has cooled off, dropping two of its last three games, most recently falling by a 4-0 score at home against the Capitals. Note that the Rangers will be up against it here as the Lightning have gone an incredible 22-3 when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. They're also an incredible 30-6 when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the same stretch, also outscoring foes by 1.8 goals on average in that spot. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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12-23-22 | Jets v. Capitals OVER 6 | 1-4 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the chances of a high-scoring affair developing on Friday night in Washington as both of these teams are well-positioned for offensive breakouts after getting held down last night. Winnipeg dropped a 3-2 decision in Boston last night. Note that the Jets have scored 4, 1, 4, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 2 and 5 goals off a loss this season - pretty good in other words. The Capitals won in overtime in Ottawa last night and have seen the 'over' go 25-10 after winning four of their last five games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 6.7 goals in that situation. All three meetings between these two teams last season saw exactly seven total goals scored. Take the over (8*). |
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12-22-22 | Islanders +1.5 v. Rangers | 3-5 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Islanders +1.5 goals over the Rangers at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. To find the last time the Islanders lost a game here in Manhattan, you would have to go back six meetings, all the way to January of 2021. Most of the matchups here at Madison Square Garden since then haven't been particularly close either, with the Isles skating to wins by 2, 4, 1, 3 and 1 goal. Here, we have the opportunity to grab an insurance goal with the visiting Isles at what I would consider a reasonable price given how little there is separating the two sides this season. Note that the Islanders have gone 9-9 on the road this season, outscoring the opposition by 0.2 goals on average. Meanwhile, the Rangers are just 7-10 on home ice, outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals. The Isles have actually outscored opponents by 0.7 goals on average when coming off four losses in their last five games over the last three seasons (13-game sample size), as is the case here. Similarly, they've outscored the opposition by an average margin of 0.6 goals when playing on the road off a one-goal defeat over the last three seasons (15-game sample size), which is also the situation here. Take the Islanders +1.5 goals (8*). |
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12-19-22 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Capitals | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit +1.5 goals over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I like the spot for the Red Wings here as they look to snap their five-game losing streak against the Capitals in Washington on Monday. Detroit fell by a 6-3 score in a game that was closer than the final score indicated against Ottawa on Saturday. Here, we'll note that the Red Wings are 9-3 when coming off consecutive losses by three goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Capitals are just 8-15 when playing at home after scoring four goals or more in their previous game over the same stretch, outscored by 0.2 goals on average in that spot. Washington has allowed 3.7 goals per game while being outscored by 0.8 goals on average when coming off six or seven wins in its last eight games over the last two seasons (13-game sample size), as is the case here. While the Wings are just 6-8 on the road this season, they've only been outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals. We'll grab the insurance goal here. Take Detroit +1.5 goals (10*). |
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12-17-22 | Islanders v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in the Islanders 4-3 loss in Boston earlier this week but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they look to snap their three-game skid in Las Vegas on Saturday. Note that the 'over' has cashed in each of the Isles last two games. That's notable as the 'under' has gone 26-9 with the Isles coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of just 4.4 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 14-5 with New York playing on the road off consecutive games that totalled seven goals or more over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 4.7 goals in that situation. It's a similar story for the Golden Knights as they've posted a 10-21 o/u mark when coming off a road win by two goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with an average total of only 5.1 goals scored in that spot. In fact, the 'under' is 11-1-3 in the Knights 15 home games to date this season, averaging just 4.7 total goals per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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12-15-22 | Maple Leafs v. Rangers +110 | 1-3 | Win | 110 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The last time we saw the Maple Leafs on the road they were a slight underdog in Dallas. Now they're favored as they head to Manhattan to face a red hot Rangers squad that has won four straight games, and has a rest advantage having not played since skating to an overtime win over the Devils on Monday. Here, we'll note that Toronto is a woeful 2-10 when playing on the road after winning four or more consecutive games over the last three seasons, allowing 4.2 goals per game while being outscored by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. The Rangers have allowed just 2.1 goals per contest while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 goals when playing at home off a home victory over the last two seasons (19-game sample size). Take New York (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Sharks | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is in Arizona +1.5 goals over San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Coyotes and as an added bonus, we're able to grab an insurance goal to increase our chances of winning considerably. The Coyotes are coming off consecutive wins, including a 5-4 victory over the Flyers last time out and that's notable as they've gone 5-2 when playing on the road after scoring five goals or more in their previous contest over the last two seasons, averaging an impressive 5.3 goals and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Sharks are a woeful 8-23 when following up a division win over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. Worse still, San Jose is 0-7 when playing at home after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.3 goals in that situation. The 'Yotes have played the Sharks tough going back to the start of last season, taking two of three games when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line while skating to an even 14-14 scoreline. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Capitals v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Chicago at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take the contrarian route here as the Blackhawks enter Wednesday's game off three consecutive 'under' results, scoring a grand total of just one goal along the way. Enter the Capitals, who have allowed 3.2 goals per game on the road this season and are in a prime letdown spot with the 'over' having gone 9-1 when coming off consecutive wins by two goals or more over the last two seasons, allowing 4.0 goals per game and resulting in an average total of 7.7 goals in that situation. Likewise, the 'over' is 20-9 with the Blackhawks coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 7.0 goals in that spot. Last year's two matchups between these non-conference foes resulted in seven and nine total goals. Take the over (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Golden Knights v. Jets -124 | 6-5 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg over Vegas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this spot sets up for the Jets as they look to bounce back from Sunday's 5-2 home loss to the Capitals. Here, we'll note that Winnipeg is a perfect 7-0 when coming off a home loss by three goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by a whopping average margin of 2.5 goals in that situation. Perhaps better still, the Jets are 9-1 when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they scored a single goal over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by 2.4 goals on average in that spot. That situation is in play after Winnipeg dropped a 2-1 decision in Las Vegas back on October 30th - its second defeat at the hands of the Golden Knights in as many meetings this season (both previous matchups were in Las Vegas). Take Winnipeg (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Kings -104 v. Sabres | 0-6 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings have had an up and down road trip, splitting their first four games entering Tuesday's clash with the Sabres in Buffalo. Knowing that they'll be facing arguably the league's best team in Boston on Thursday, they'll want to the make the most of the opportunity in front of them against the slumping Sabres on Tuesday night. Buffalo has dropped consecutive games, managing to score just four goals in those two contests after exploding for nine goals in a game in Columbus last week. The Kings have certainly put the clamps on the Sabres recently, allowing just two goals in winning both meetings last season. Here, we'll note that Los Angeles is 9-4 when coming off a one-goal loss on the road over the last two seasons and 27-15 when following up a game in which it allowed four goals or more over the same stretch. While Buffalo has played an exciting brand of hockey this season, it only has six wins in 16 home games to show for it. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. While last season's three meetings between these two teams included two 'under' results, this is actually a surprisingly strong 'over' spot on Tuesday night in Beantown. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-8 with the Isles coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.4 goals. Likewise, the 'over' is 17-9 with New York coming off four or five losses in its last six games, as is the case here, over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 6.3 goals. Even better still, the 'over' is 8-1 in the Isles last nine games off a home loss, good for an average total of 7.6 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Bruins have had a tendency to let down their guard off big road wins, with the 'over' going 21-9 in their last 30 games following a road victory by two goals or more, leading to an average total of 6.6 goals. The 'over' is also 18-8 in Boston's last 26 contests after holding its last opponent to one goal or less, resulting in an average total of 6.5 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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12-12-22 | Predators +102 v. Blues | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nashville over St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams enter this game on the heels of consecutive losses although the Blues did manage to register a point in yesterday's overtime loss to the Avalanche. That was of little consolation as St. Louis coughed up a late 2-1 lead in that contest, another in a long line of disappointing results for the Blues this season. For the Predators, they'll be eager to erase the memory of a 3-2 home loss to the Senators on Saturday. With little separating these two teams up front or on the blue line, the difference could be between the pipes. While Nashville has gotten solid work from its goaltending tandem of Juuse Saros and Kevin Lankinen, the Blues are in dire straights with both Jordan Binnington and Thomas Greiss struggling. I simply feel the Predators have more upside at this stage of the season and the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored here. Take Nashville (8*). |
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12-10-22 | Hurricanes v. Islanders UNDER 6 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and New York at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. We'll back the 'under' on Long Island on Saturday as the Hurricanes continue their long road trip against the Islanders. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 17-7 with the Canes seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 4.7 goals. The 'under' is also 20-7 with the Isles coming off consecutive games that totalled seven goals or more, which is also the situation here, over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of only 4.4 goals in that spot. Take the under (8*). |
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12-08-22 | Senators +165 v. Stars | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ottawa over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Senators were a no-show against the Kings two nights ago (we won with Los Angeles in that game), falling behind 4-1 early and never recovering in a 5-2 defeat. That was the type of loss that's easy to move on from and I expect a far better performance from the underdog Sens in Dallas on Thursday. The common line of thinking here is that this is a layup bounce-back spot for the Stars off consecutive home losses. The reality is, that hasn't been the case over the last few seasons as Dallas checks in 2-5 the last seven times it has come off two or more home losses in a row. After scoring 25 goals over a six-game stretch the Stars were certainly in line for some regression and we saw that on Tuesday as they were shutout by a Leafs team missing a number of key contributors on the blue line. Look for Ottawa to be the team that bounces back on Thursday, noting that it has taken four straight meetings in this series including a 4-1 victory in Dallas last season. Take Ottawa (8*). |
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12-08-22 | Kings +155 v. Maple Leafs | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Kings two nights ago in Ottawa but missed fading the Leafs in their 4-0 victory in Dallas on the same night. Here, we'll take another shot at fading Toronto as it returns home to host Los Angeles on Thursday. The Leafs have actually dropped consecutive meetings with the Kings, including a 5-1 loss on home ice as a favorite priced well north of -200 last season. I'm higher on Los Angeles than most, realizing that it has plenty of warts defensively but does have considerable upside from an offensive standpoint. I do like the way the Kings forwards match up here against a Leafs squad that is still missing a number of stalwarts on the blue line due to injury. While it's always a considerable risk fading a team as offensively gifted as the Leafs, I like the letdown spot here returning home off a shutout victory in Dallas. Interestingly, Toronto has averaged just 2.9 goals per game at home this season compared to its season scoring average of 3.1 gpg. The Kings are a respectable 7-7 (+0.3 net games from a betting perspective) on the road. I think placing goaltender Cal Petersen on waivers was a wake-up call for the entire team last week and his replacement Pheonix Copley turned in a terrific performance between the pipes two nights ago. It's likely Jonathan Quick in goal tonight but he was also in goal for that aforementioned 5-1 win here in Toronto last season. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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12-07-22 | Canucks v. Sharks +110 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose over Vancouver at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll gladly fade the favored Canucks off their ridiculous come-from-behind win over the Canadiens on Monday. Vancouver rallied from four goals down and then again after trailing 6-5 with just minutes remaining in the third period in an eventual overtime win. Credit the Canucks for never quitting in that game but there's no question the Habs served it up on a silver platter after jumping ahead 4-0 early. Here, I don't expect the Sharks to be as forgiving as they look to bounce back from three straight losses. Interestingly, San Jose's most recent home game came against these same Canucks back on November 27th - a game it lost by a 4-3 score. Here, we'll note that the Sharks have gone 7-2 in their last nine games after losing consecutive contests by three goals or more, which is the situation here, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. Having dropped six straight meetings in this series, look for the revenge-minded Sharks to finally put one over on the Canucks on Wednesday. Take San Jose (8*). |
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12-07-22 | Rangers +135 v. Golden Knights | Top | 5-1 | Win | 135 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New York over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers 6-4 victory over the Blues on Monday was the type of win that can provide some positive momentum for a team as it heads out on the road for a brief two-game trip. New York appeared headed for its third straight loss before a furious third period rally that saw it score three unanswered goals. That marked the first time in seven games the Blueshirts found the back of the net more than three times. The Golden Knights persevered in a 4-3 shootout win in Boston on Monday. That marked their second straight victory and wrapped up a 3-1 road trip. I think they'll be in tough here against a Rangers squad that has gone 7-5 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average. Note that New York is an incredible 12-2 in its last 14 games after losing five or six of its last seven contests, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that situation. The Knights are a woeful 2-7 in their last nine home games after scoring three or more goals in four consecutive games, outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that spot. Take New York (10*). |
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12-06-22 | Maple Leafs v. Stars +101 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Toronto at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Maple Leafs finally lost a game on Saturday as they fell by a 3-2 score in Tampa. Meanwhile, the Stars check in off a disappointing 6-5 home loss against the Wild on Sunday - a game that saw them stage a furious rally but ultimately come away with just a single point. There was no shame in that shootout defeat, however, and Dallas remains a solid 7-5 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 1.3 goals. The Leafs were bound to come back to Earth following an extended winning run and I don't like the spot for them here as they come off a two-day layoff following Saturday's defeat, not to mention the fact that they'll be taking the ice for only the second time in the last six days. The 'rest vs. rust' discussion comes into play (especially at this early stage of the season) and given how well Toronto had been playing, I believe it could hit a bit of a lull here. This should be a game the Stars have had circled after dropping a 3-2 decision in Toronto back in October. Dallas didn't play particularly well in that contest but was still right there in the end, which should provide some confident that it can gain an ounce of revenge here at home. Take Dallas (8*). |
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12-06-22 | Kings +100 v. Senators | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I believe the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this matchup on Tuesday night in Ottawa. The Kings head out on the road after a disappointing 1-3 homestand that started with a 3-2 loss to these same Senators a little over a week ago. That was a successful revenge trip to Los Angeles after the Sens had dropped both meetings with the Kings last season, including a 2-0 defeat here in Ottawa. I believe they'll find the going a little tougher this time around as the Kings look to get this eastern road swing off to a positive start. Here, we'll note that Los Angeles is 24-18 after losing two of its previous three games over the last two seasons and 15-11 when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the same stretch. Better still, the Kings are 22-12 after giving up three or more goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons and have given up just 2.7 goals per contest after allowing four or more goals in their previous game over the same stretch (40-game sample size), outscoring the opposition by 0.4 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Sens are a woeful 3-14 in their last 17 home games after scoring three goals or more in consecutive contests, outscored by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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12-06-22 | Kings v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams have met three times since the start of last season, including a 3-2 Senators victory in Los Angeles just over a week ago. Of those three games, only one came all that close to going 'over' the total and that was thanks only to an empty-net goal from the Kings in a 4-2 win last season. The lone matchup between them here in Ottawa since the start of last season resulted in a 2-0 Los Angeles victory. The Sens did explode for five goals in their most recent contest but that came against the lowly Sharks. In fact, the only other occasion where Ottawa scored more than three goals over its last eight games came against another of the league's worst teams in the Ducks. Los Angeles will undoubtedly be looking to tighten things up here off a 1-3 homestand. Noting that the 'under' is 25-13 with an average total of just 5.5 goals scored when the Sens play at home after their previous contest totalled seven or more goals, we'll confidently back the 'under' here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-22 | Canadiens +175 v. Canucks | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal over Vancouver at 10:35 pm et on Monday. We missed with the Coyotes in Vancouver on Saturday as they blew a 2-1 third period lead in an eventual overtime loss (on a Canucks power play goal). Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well fading the Canucks as a big favorite again, this time against the Montreal Canadiens, who will be looking to bounce back from a 5-3 loss to the red hot Oilers in Edmonton on Saturday. Montreal continues to play competitive hockey, 7-5 over its last 12 games including a 2-1 upset win in Calgary to open its current road trip. The Canadiens took the first meeting between these two teams this season and it wasn't particularly close (Montreal won 5-2). That game was played in Montreal but the Habs have also held their own here in Vancouver over the years, splitting the last six matchups while outscoring the Canucks by an average margin of 4-3. Take Montreal (8*). |
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12-05-22 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Flames | 2-3 | Win | 110 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I'm still not buying what the Flames are selling, even after a lopsided win over the Capitals on Saturday. Remember, we cashed a ticket fading Calgary with another puck-line underdog in the Canadiens (Montreal won that game 2-1) last week. I believe the Flames are ripe for the picking again here as they host a Coyotes team desperate for a win off four consecutive losses, including a tough 3-2 overtime defeat in Vancouver on Saturday. Here, we'll note that Calgary is just 5-9 the last 14 times it has played at home after scoring five or more goals in its previous game, outscored by 0.1 goals on average in that spot. Similarly, the Flames are a long-term 58-62, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 0.1 goals when playing at home after allowing two goals or fewer in three consecutive games, as is also the case here. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (8*). |
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12-03-22 | Coyotes +181 v. Canucks | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Canucks continue to struggle, already 0-2 on their current homestand off blowout losses to the Capitals and Panthers. While a matchup with the lowly Coyotes would appear to be the cure for what ails them, I'm not convinced that will prove to be the case on Saturday night. Arizona pulled off a 4-0 stunner in Carolina just over a week ago but has dropped three in a row on the road since. The Coyotes do at least continue to score with consistency, having put up at least three goals in five consecutive games. After dropping all three meetings in this series last season by a combined 17-3 score, I can't help but feel the Coyotes have had this matchup circled and I look for them to take advantage of the Canucks playing some of their worst hockey. Take Arizona (8*). |
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12-01-22 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Flames | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. While the Flames check in off a 6-2 blowout win over the Panthers and the Canadiens are off a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Sharks, I believe Montreal is set up well to give Calgary all it can handle on Thursday night. The Habs have certainly been playing better hockey lately, winning six of their last 10 games heading in. They'll have a little extra emotion for this one as teammate Sean Monahan makes his return to Calgary. Sure, the Flames skated to a blowout win over a good Panthers team two nights ago, but they've still dropped three of their last four overall and have 'only' won seven of 12 home games this season, outscoring the opposition by just 0.4 goals on average. The Habs are a respectable 5-5 on the road, outscored by an average margin of just 0.2 goals in those contests. Here, we'll note that Calgary is just 5-8 when playing at home after scoring five or more goals in their last game over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.1 goals on average in that spot. We'll confidently grab the insurance goal with the visitors at a near pk'em price here. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*). |