Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-30-22 | Rangers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers are reeling off three straight losses and we've successfully faded them in their last two contests as they blew a 3-0 third period lead in a 4-3 loss to the Oilers and a 2-0 first period lead in a 5-3 defeat at the hands of the Devils, with both games coming at home. Here, they'll obviously be looking to tighten things up and I do think they benefit from stepping down in class after facing the first-place Devils on Monday to take on the second-last (in the Eastern Conference) Senators on Wednesday. Ottawa does check in off consecutive wins out west but now faces the tough 'first game back off a long road trip' situation, noting that New York has been much tougher defensively on the road compared to at home this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-11 with the Rangers coming off a home loss over the last two seasons and better still, the 'under' is 13-2 when that home defeat came by two goals or more, as is the case here. That latter situation has produced an average total of just 4.8 goals. All three of last season's matchups between these two teams totalled six goals or less with the two games played here in Ottawa reaching only five and three total goals. Take the under (10*). |
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11-29-22 | Capitals +105 v. Canucks | 5-1 | Win | 105 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the bounce-back spot for the Capitals on Tuesday as they look to respond after suffering a 5-1 loss to the red hot Devils last time out. The Canucks enter on a three-game winning streak, sweeping their road trip. They're just 3-5 on home ice this season, though. The Capitals are a woeful 2-9 on the road but that record will level out eventually. Looking back, Washington has faced a tough slate of opponents away from home. I do think they use the rest of this trip as an opportunity to get on track on the highway and off two full days' off, this is an ideal turnaround spot in my opinion. With the Canucks 'fat and happy' off a perfect road trip and having dropped last year's lone matchup between these two teams here in Vancouver, I'll back the Caps at a generous price on Tuesday. Take Washington (8*). |
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11-28-22 | Devils -102 v. Rangers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New Jersey over New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Devils just keep rolling along and I like their chances of stacking up another victory as they head to Manhattan to face the struggling Rangers on Monday night. New York has lost seven of its last 11 games, including Saturday's stunning 4-3 defeat at the hands of the Oilers in a game they led 3-0 in the third period (we won with the underdog Oilers in that game). There's no comparison between these two teams statistically this season. The 'due factor' and the fact that New York has owned this series for years is really the only thing it has going for it in this matchup. That's not enough to warrant the pk'em price in my opinion. Noting that the Devils have outscored the opposition by 2.0 goals on average on the road this season while the Rangers have been outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals at home, we'll confidently back New Jersey here. Take New Jersey (10*). |
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11-26-22 | Stars +142 v. Avalanche | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm not completely convinced that the Avalanche are the better team in this matchup, yet we're being given a very generous price to back the Stars, likely due to the fact they're off a hard-fought overtime loss to the Jets last night while Colorado was idle thanks to a water main break in Nashville. The Stars have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendars since suffering a 3-2 home loss to the Avalanche earlier this week. Dallas has proven to be more than just a 'tough out' on the road this season, going 6-5 while outscoring the opposition by 1.0 goal per contest. The Avs are off a stunning 4-3 home loss to the Canucks and are just an even 4-4 here in Denver this season. Take Dallas (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Maple Leafs v. Penguins -1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh -1.5 goals over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm excited at the prospect of such a generous return laying the extra goal with the Penguins in this matchup on Saturday in Pittsburgh. We unsuccessfully faded the Leafs in yesterday's 4-3 win in Minnesota. The Wild certainly didn't put forth their best effort in that contest, looking very much like a team that enjoyed the Thanksgiving festivities a little too much a day earlier. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was sharp again last evening, delivering a 4-1 win in Philadelphia that didn't appear to empty much out of their tank. Pittsburgh has now won five games in a row with four of those victories coming by two goals or more. I expect another comfortable victory here against a Leafs team whose back-to-back wins have masked what I still feel are deficiencies at the back-end. Take Pittsburgh -1.5 goals (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Oilers +130 v. Rangers | 4-3 | Win | 130 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton over New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. With the Rangers having won just four of their last 10 games and in a tough spot here returning home off a west coast road trip, I like the slumping Oilers to catch them by surprise on Saturday afternoon. Edmonton has had a couple of days off to digest a 3-0 loss to the Islanders on Wednesday - its second straight defeat to open this three-game road swing. There's no reason for the Oilers to be intimidated by this matchup on Saturday, noting that New York has been outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals in its 10 home games this season. It's worth noting that while the Rangers did skate to a victory the last time these two teams met last season, they haven't recorded consecutive wins over Edmonton since taking five in a row in the series from 2015 to 2018. Since then, the Oilers are 5-1 in the last six meetings. Take Edmonton (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Maple Leafs v. Wild -102 | 4-3 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Toronto at 2:05 pm et on Friday. The Wild are generally a streaky team, particularly on home ice and here we'll back them fresh off consecutive victories in the State of Hockey, as they host the Leafs, who are in a clear letdown spot after ending the Devils long winning streak two nights ago. I don't think there's any question, there's a valley between the Eastern and Western Conferences this season, with the West proving superior to this point. Toronto checks in just 3-6 against Western Conference opponents while Minnesota has gone an even 4-4 against the East. The fact that the Wild have held six of their last eight opponents to two goals or less has gone largely unnoticed. Off a season-high six-goal outburst in a win over Winnipeg on Wednesday, I look for Minnesota to keep it rolling here, noting that it has gone an incredible 39-12 in its last 51 home games when coming off a victory. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Canadiens +108 v. Blackhawks | 3-2 | Win | 108 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal over Chicago at 2:05 pm et on Friday. I'm not buying what the Blackhawks are selling this season and will gladly fade them for a second straight game on Friday afternoon. Chicago might not be the worst team in the NHL, but it's certainly in the conversation. Sporting a 4-1 third period lead in Dallas two nights ago, all seemed to be going well for the 'Hawks before they allowed five unanswered goals, not only failing to win, but not even managing to hold on for the puck-line cover. They're back home on Friday but that should offer little comfort as they've gone 4-6 while being outscored by 0.7 goals on average here at the United Center. Montreal successfully avenged a loss the week prior in Columbus two nights ago and will be revenge-minded again here after dropping both meetings against Chicago last season. Noting that the 'Hawks are a miserable 8-28 after giving up three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that situation, we'll confidently back the Habs here. Take Montreal (8*). |
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11-23-22 | Rangers -161 v. Ducks | 2-3 | Loss | -161 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Ducks might not be the worst team in the NHL but they're certainly in the conversation. I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat on Wednesday, even as they catch the Rangers in a back-to-back spot off a 5-3 win in Los Angeles last night. New York has been a load for Anaheim to handle going back to last season, scoring 14 goals while taking all three meetings in this series. The Ducks simply aren't producing offensively right now, mustering two goals or less in three straight and five of their last six games overall. It won't get any easier against a Rangers squad that has held six consecutive opponents to three goals or less. Take New York (8*). |
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11-23-22 | Blackhawks v. Stars -1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas -1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. Things look like they're only going to get worse before they get better when it comes to the Blackhawks and I think they're in for another beatdown at the hands of the Stars in Dallas on Wednesday. Dallas has been one of the league's most impressive teams this season, checking in sporting an 11-5-3 record. However, it enters Wednesday's contest off a shootout loss to the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche two nights ago. I'm confident we'll see the Stars bounce back here as they host a reeling Blackhawks squad that has lost four straight games, all by two goals or more. A punchless offense and a leaky defense is always a bad combination and that's precisely what Chicago has right now, with no turnaround in sight. Take Dallas -1.5 goals (10*). |
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11-23-22 | Bruins v. Panthers +105 | 2-5 | Win | 105 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Bruins two nights ago in Tampa but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Panthers as they look to snap Boston's long winning streak on Wednesday. The Panthers are in a triple-revenge spot here, having dropped three straight matchups with the Bruins. However, all three of those contests were played in Boston. The last time these two teams met in Sunrise, the Panthers skated to a 4-1 victory. Off an ugly loss in Columbus on Sunday, look for Florida to bounce back here. Take Florida (8*). |
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11-22-22 | Rangers v. Kings UNDER 6 | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. While we don't see many totals set at 5.5 these days, if there were a game where it might be warranted, this is it. The Rangers have seen their last four games stay 'under' the total. Since exploding for eight goals in a victory in Detroit on November 10th, they've managed to score only nine goals in four games since. Defensively, they yielded 12 goals over a three-game stretch from November 3rd to 8th but have allowed only nine goals in five games since. It's a similar story for the Kings. They scored nine goals in a two-game stretch from November 12th to 14th but have managed to find the back of the net only six times in three games since. They haven't been quite as airtight as the Rangers defensively but have limited the opposition to less than 3.0 goals per game on home ice this season which is an accomplishment by today's NHL standards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-10 with New York playing on the road following a game that totalled four goals or less while the 'under' has gone 31-16 with the Kings playing at home following consecutive losses against division opponents. Take the under (8*). |
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11-21-22 | Bruins +100 v. Lightning | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Monday. This is undoubtedly a tough test for the red hot Bruins as the Lightning have been playing well also, winning eight of their last 11 games. I like Boston in this spot, however, noting that it took three of four meetings in this series last season and Tampa Bay checks in a woeful 8-13 in its last 21 games following four or more consecutive wins, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that situation. Take Boston (8*). |
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11-21-22 | Oilers +135 v. Devils | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Devils are the hottest team in the NHL and have been for weeks but I like the Oilers to finally bring New Jersey's long winning streak to a halt on Monday night. Edmonton has proven to be a 'tough out' and then some on the road this season, going 5-2 including victories over top Eastern Conference teams including the Lightning and Panthers. Here, we'll note that the Oilers are an incredible 17-4 in their last 21 games when seeking revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. Take Edmonton (8*). |
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11-19-22 | Islanders +1.5 v. Stars | 2-5 | Loss | -190 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York +1.5 goals over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. With the Islanders having scored exactly four goals in five of their last six games and Dallas allowing four goals or more in four of its last five contests, a potential equalizer should never be too far away for New York on Saturday. Here, we'll note that the Stars average just 1.9 goals per game when playing at home after scoring three or more goals in four consecutive games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Isles average 3.5 goals per game while outscoring opponents by 1.3 goals on average when coming off a one-goal loss over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here. Take New York +1.5 goals (8*). |
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11-17-22 | Devils +130 v. Maple Leafs | 3-2 | Win | 130 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Jersey over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. It always seems to be one step forward, two steps back when it comes to the Maple Leafs and off consecutive victories including a lopsided win in Pittsburgh two nights ago, I look for them to get tripped up against the red hot Devils on Thursday. New Jersey isn't getting the credit or recognition it deserves. The Devils have reeled off 10 consecutive victories - that's no fluke. They haven't allowed more than three goals on a single occasion over that stretch. Contrast that with the Leafs, who have been lit up for 4+ goals in five of their last 10 contests. Outscoring the opposition by 1.9 goals on average on the road this season, we'll ride with the Devils on Thursday. Take New Jersey (8*). |
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11-16-22 | Kings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. These aren't the same Kings we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. Previous Los Angeles' clubs wouldn't have been able to sniff out a comeback in a game like Monday's in Calgary. In that contest, the Kings fell behind 5-2 and 6-3 but ultimately rallied for a narrow 6-5 defeat, coming one near-miss from tying the game in the closing minute. Los Angeles has now scored nine goals over its last two contests and checks in averaging 3.7 goals per game (an average total of 7.8 goals) on the road this season. The Oilers are back home following a three-game road trip that saw them win two games. They're averaging 3.8 goals per game on home ice this season but also allowing an average of 3.8. Noting that the 'over' is 15-5 the last 20 times the Oilers have come off a win by 2+ goals, as is the case here, with that situation averaging a total of 7.4 goals, we'll confidently back the 'over' in Oil Country on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-22 | Sabres v. Senators OVER 6.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Sabres were involved in another wild, high-scoring affair last night as they fell by a 5-4 score against the Canucks on home ice. Losers of six games in a row, they'll be looking to get untracked in Ottawa on Wednesday and the Senators should prove to be a forgiving foe as they've allowed 4+ goals in seven of their last nine games overall. The Sens scored only two goals in Monday's loss to the Islanders but I'm not overly concerned about their offense and I expect the Sabres will be the cure for what ails them on Wednesday, noting that Buffalo has allowed 5, 5, 4, 7, 3 and 5 goals over its last six contests and gives up 3.5 goals per game on the road this season. Take the over (8*). |
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11-15-22 | Flyers v. Blue Jackets +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus +1.5 goals over Philadelphia at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Blue Jackets easily skated past the Flyers by a 5-2 score here at Nationwide Arena last week. They followed that up by collecting a point in an overtime loss against the Islanders on Long Island on Saturday. Here, we have a classic case of the wrong team being favored in my opinion and we'll take advantage by cherry-picking the insurance goal with the home side. The Flyers are reeling after a surprisingly solid start to the campaign. They've lost three games in a row, allowing a whopping 14 goals in the process while scoring only four. Keep in mind, Philadelphia opened the campaign scoring 5, 3, 3, 3, 3, 0, 4 and 3 goals in its first five games this season. Since then, the Flyers have scored 0, 2, 2, 5, 2, 1 and 1 goal in their last seven contests. Picked by most to finish at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings at the outset of the season, the Flyers seem to gradually be living up to those expectations. The Blue Jackets endured a brutal stretch in late October and early November but as I mentioned have played much better over the last couple of games and I'm confident they can give the Flyers all they can handle again on Tuesday. Take Columbus +1.5 goals (8*). |
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11-14-22 | Hurricanes -220 v. Blackhawks | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Monday. This is an awful spot for the Blackhawks, returning home off a win at the tail-end of their three-game western road swing, noting that they've scored three goals or less in seven straight games now and catch a Hurricanes squad in a foul mood off a 4-1 loss in Colorado to open their current road trip. While Carolina has been held to one goal or less in three of its last four games, I expect its offensive slump to be short-lived, noting that it is just one game removed from a seven-goal explosion against the Oilers. Carolina took both meetings in this series last season, scoring 10 goals in the process. The Blackhawks are an even weaker team this season in my opinion and they find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. Take Carolina (8*). |
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11-12-22 | Oilers +1.5 v. Panthers | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton +1.5 goals over Florida at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade the Panthers on the puck-line here as they look to secure a third consecutive win by 2+ goals. The Oilers have alternated losses and wins so far on this eastern road swing and are coming off an ugly 7-2 loss in Carolina two nights ago. That game got away from Edmonton but it was a tough three-in-four spot in an obvious letdown situation off a 3-2 win in Tampa two nights earlier. Note that the road team has won four consecutive meetings in this series with Edmonton most recently skating to a 4-3 victory in Sunrise last February. Take Edmonton +1.5 goals (8*). |
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11-11-22 | Sharks v. Stars UNDER 6.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Friday. The Sharks gave up five goals for a second straight game in last night's defeat at the hands of the Blues. San Jose has now lost five straight games and desperately needs to button things up defensively as it heads to Dallas on Friday. It should have James Reimer back between the pipes and that's a positive as he's been the superior goaltender over backup Kaapo Kahkonen (who started last night's game) this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 165-113 with the Sharks having allowed five or more goals in their previous game and 19-5 with San Jose's last four games having totalled seven or more goals, which is also the case here. Dallas comes off a 5-1 loss in Winnipeg and that's notable as the 'under' has cashed five of six times it has followed up a loss by four or more goals against a division opponent over the last three seasons. The 'under' is also a long-term 47-29 with the Stars coming off four consecutive 'over' results, which is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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11-10-22 | Sharks v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are struggling mightily right now with St. Louis' issues coming completely out of left field giving all of the talent on its roster, not to mention the fact that it had gotten off to a perfect 3-0 start this season. Since then, the Blues have suffered eight consecutive losses and it's no secret what the problem has been as they simply can't score with any consistency. St. Louis has mustered two goals or less in eight of its last nine games. While the Sharks have been sieve-like defensively of late, they do come off a bye week of sorts, having not played since Saturday. They should be pleased to be hitting the road, where they've played a much cleaner brand of hockey, allowing only 2.7 goals per game. They don't figure to find much success breaking through offensively, however, as they've averaged just 2.0 goals per game on the road and you have to figure Blues head coach Craig Berube gave his team an earful following Tuesday's dreadful defensive effort in a 5-1 loss in Philadelphia. Note that the 'under' is 13-2 in the Blues last 15 games following eight or more consecutive losses, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks have seen the 'under' go 19-4 in their last 23 games after playing four consecutive games in which seven or more total goals were scored, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of just 4.8 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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11-08-22 | Golden Knights v. Maple Leafs -117 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Vegas at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Maple Leafs have proven to be a streaky team in recent years and this season has been no different. Toronto entered the start of the month having dropped four straight games. Since then, they've reeled off three straight wins, including a near-perfect road game in Carolina on Sunday. The Golden Knights come in red hot as well, winners of seven games in a row. That streak started with a victory over these same Leafs in Las Vegas. It's worth noting, however, in nine previous matchups between these two teams, the Knights have never managed to post consecutive victories, failing to do so in each of their last two tries, which both came in Toronto. Interestingly, the Leafs are an incredible 23-2 in their last 25 home games following a road game, which is the situation here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that spot. It's worth noting that the Knights had been playing every other day going back to October 28th. Here, they come off back-to-back off days and I look for Toronto to get the jump on them as a result on Tuesday. Take Toronto (10*). |
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11-07-22 | Blues v. Bruins OVER 6.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Monday. If the Blues are going to finally bust out of their slump, it's not likely to be a low-scoring victory (they've yielded a whopping 23 goals in their last four games and 4+ goals in five of their last six contests). That's because they have what has been one of the worst goaltending tandems in the league so far this season in Jordan Binnington and Thomas Greiss. Regardless who starts in goal on Monday, I'm confident we'll see the Bruins bounce back offensively following a 2-1 defeat at the hands of the Maple Leafs on Saturday. Note that Boston is still averaging an impressive 4.2 goals per game this season. Meanwhile, the Blues are giving up 3.9 goals per contest. I do think there's reason to believe the Blues can break through offensively here, however, noting that they've averaged 3.2 goals the 40 times they've come off consecutive losses by 3+ goals, as is the case here. Better still, they check in averaging 3.9 goals in their last 37 road games where the total has been set at 6.0 or higher, which is also the situation tonight. Take the over (8*). |
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11-05-22 | Ducks v. Sharks -135 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Jose over Anaheim at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Sharks in this same matchup earlier this week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well in this 'revenge' spot, noting that the previous contest could have certainly gone either way as it was decided in a shootout. The Ducks check in having allowed a whopping 29 goals over their last six games and figure to get lit up again here. Note that Anaheim is a woeful 6-26 when coming off two wins in their last three games over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Sharks are a profitable 25-21 after losing three of their last four games over the same stretch, as is the case here. Take San Jose (10*). |
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11-05-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Penguins -189 | 3-2 | Loss | -189 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Seattle at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Getting a win on Saturday is 'mission critical' for the Penguins as they look to finally snap their six-game losing streak before a three-day layoff which precedes a showdown with the rival Capitals on Wednesday in Washington. This is a 'revenge game' for the Pens after they outshot the Kraken but fell by a 3-1 score in Seattle last Saturday. Note that while the Kraken have won three games in a row, they've actually been outshot by a wide 95-79 margin over that stretch. Here, we'll note that Seattle is a woeful 2-12 all-time when coming off a road victory, which is the situation here following its 4-0 shutout win over the Wild on Thursday. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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11-03-22 | Hurricanes v. Lightning -126 | 4-3 | Loss | -126 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Lightning have looked like a different team since an embarrassing home loss against the Flyers back on October 18th. That loss dropped the Bolts to 1-3 to start the season. Since then, they've gone 5-1, including a come-from-behind 4-3 win over Ottawa here on home ice two nights ago. I look for them to continue to build positive momentum as they host the Hurricanes on Thursday. Carolina has won back-to-back games but it is seven games removed from its last victory by more than a single goal - illustrating how razor thin its margin for error is at the moment. Note that the Lightning check in 10-1 in their last 11 games following a one-goal victory over a division opponent, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Canes have been outscored by 0.8 goals on average in their last 72 road games following a home victory over a divisional foe, which is also the situation here. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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11-01-22 | Ducks v. Sharks -125 | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose over Anaheim at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have struggled in the early going this season but I like what I've seen from the Sharks lately, even if the wins haven't come with much consistency. San Jose is coming off a 4-3 loss against Tampa Bay but still checks in 3-3 over its last six games with the other two losses coming against the Golden Knights and Devils - two teams that are off terrific starts to the season. The Ducks finally snapped their seven-game losing streak with an overtime win over the reeling Maple Leafs on Sunday. During that long losing skid they scored two goals or less on six occasions. I'm not convinced the Ducks are out of the woods just yet and here we'll note that they're 0-10 in their last 10 games after a one-goal victory on home ice, as is the case here, outscored by 2.7 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Sharks are 14-6 in their last 20 games after allowing 3+ goals in three consecutive games, which is also the situation here, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. Take San Jose (8*). |
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11-01-22 | Senators v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent game with the Senators notably yielding a whopping 58 shots on goal in a 5-3 loss to the Panthers. They've had a couple of days off to shake off that ugly performance and I fully expect the gritty Sens to rebound with a much sharper performance here. Meanwhile, the Lightning are in a bit of a hangover spot, returning home off a successful three-game road trip to California. The Bolts are unlikely to provide such an onslaught of shots as we saw from the Panthers, noting that they've fired 30 or fewer shots on goal in four consecutive games. Ottawa was on fire offensively for a four-game stretch in mid-October but has now scored just five goals in its last two games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Senators have played on the road after giving up 5+ goals in their previous game, resulting in an average total of 5.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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10-31-22 | Kings v. Blues -113 | 5-1 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Blues to finally snap their four-game losing streak at home against the Kings on Monday. St. Louis hasn't won a game since October 22nd, when it skated to a 2-0 win in Edmonton. I expect the Blues to get back to that type of hard-nosed defensive play here as they catch the Kings off a 4-2 home win over the reeling Maple Leafs on Saturday. Here, we'll note that St. Louis has gone 11-3 the last 14 times it has come off a game in which it allowed 6+ goals, as is the case here following Saturday's 7-4 loss to Montreal, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that situation. The Blues are also 14-4 the last 18 times they've played at home off consecutive losses by 2+ goals, which is also the situation here, outscoring the opposition by 1.3 goals on average in that spot. Keep in mind, the Blues were priced at -170 or worse in their two home matchups against Los Angeles last season. We're being offered a much more reasonable price here thanks to their recent struggles. I expect them to bounce back. Take St. Louis (8*). |
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10-29-22 | Canadiens v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and St. Louis at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Canadiens are coming off a 3-2 win in Buffalo two nights ago as we cashed with the 'under'. We'll go right back to the well with the same play here as they continue their road trip in St. Louis. Despite the victory on Thursday, Montreal has still mustered only four goals in its three road games to date this season. The good news is, the Habs have played stout defense, limiting seven of their eight opponents this season to three goals or less. The Blues started the season on fire, scoring nine goals in posting consecutive wins over the Blue Jackets and Kraken. Since then, St. Louis has been stymied, going 1-3 while scoring a grand total of four goals. Last time out, the Blues were lit up for six goals in a loss in Nashville but they won't have to contend with that same type of firepower here, noting they gave up just four goals in two meetings with the Habs last season. Take the under (8*). |
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10-28-22 | Penguins v. Canucks +140 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 140 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver over Pittsburgh at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Canucks finally picked up their first win of the season last night in Seattle and I look for them to build off the positive momentum provided by that victory as they return home to host the Penguins on Friday. Pittsburgh scored 26 goals in its first five games this season but has been held to only four in the first two games of its current four-game road trip. Worse still, after holding five straight opponents to three goals or less, the Pens have been lit up for 10 goals over their last two contests. Meanwhile, Vancouver posted its highest scoring output of the season in last night's win, providing a glimmer of hope as it enters this key four-game homestand. Note that the Canucks will be playing with double-revenge here after dropping both of last season's meetings with Pittsburgh. The Pens haven't posted three straight victories over the Canucks since 2016-17. Take Vancouver (10*). |
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10-27-22 | Canadiens v. Sabres UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Last season, we saw three of four meetings between these two teams stay 'under' 6.5 total goals and I expect a similar outcome on Thursday as the Canadiens and Sabres match up for the first time this season. Montreal has struggled to find the back of the net with any consistency this season, scoring 4, 0, 1, 3, 6, 2 and 1 goal through its first seven contests. The good news is, the Habs have held six of their seven opponents to three goals or less. It's been 'feast-or-famine' for the Sabres offensively. They piled up 15 goals in a three-game swing through western Canada last week but outside of that have scored just eight goals in their other three contests. After allowing five goals in a blowout loss in Seattle two nights ago, I'm confident we'll see the Sabres tighten things up here. They've held four of their six opponents to three goals or less and three of those opponents to two goals or fewer. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-22 | Golden Knights v. Sharks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Sharks shutout victory over the Flyers on Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they return home to host the Golden Knights on Tuesday. Vegas is in a back-to-back spot after defeating the Maple Leafs by a 3-1 score on home ice last night. The Knights are off to a terrific start to the season and it's had a lot to do with their defensive play. The 'under' checks in 3-0-1 in their last four games as they've scored 2, 5, 2 and 3 goals over that stretch. Vegas has allowed only 3, 0, 2, 3, 2, 3 and 1 goal in its first seven contests this season and now draws an offensively-challenged Sharks squad that has yet to top the three-goal mark this season, reaching that number only twice in eight games. The good news for San Jose is that it has tightened things up defensively, yielding just four goals in its last three games combined. Note that 11 of the last 15 meetings in this series have stayed 'under' 6.5 total goals. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-22 | Panthers v. Blackhawks UNDER 7 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. This is the highest total on Tuesday's NHL board - in fact, it's about as high as an NHL total gets right now. I believe it will prove too high. The Panthers have allowed 1, 3, 5, 3, 3 and 2 goals through six games this season. That's fine. It's been the Florida offense that has struggled to get going or at least match the high expectations set for it entering the campaign, scoring 3, 4, 3, 4, 2 and 3 goals to date. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks have far-exceeded expectations offensively, particularly of late, scoring 14 goals in their last three contests. I don't see that continuing here. As I mentioned, the Panthers have been fairly stingy defensively save for one game in Boston and that was a difficult spot as they were at the tail-end of a three-game in five-night road trip. Take the under (8*). |
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10-24-22 | Stars v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams have over-achieved offensively to this point this season but I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Monday night in Ottawa. The offensive exploits of the Stars have out-shadowed their terrific defensive play through five games, limiting opponents to 1, 1, 1, 3 and 2 goals. Ottawa checks in having scored 18 goals over its last three contests so you have to figure Dallas will be cautious not to get involved in an ultra high-scoring game here. After allowing 4, 3 and 5 goals in their first three games this season, the Senators have settled down a bit defensively, holding the Capitals and Coyotes to two goals apiece over their last two contests. Note that last year's two matchups between these teams both totalled exactly five goals. Take the under (8*). |
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10-23-22 | Sharks v. Flyers UNDER 6 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. While the NHL as a whole is off to a high-scoring start to the season, these two teams have combined to post a 4-8 o/u record. I expect that trend to continue when they match up in Philadelphia on Sunday. The Sharks have been held to 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3 and 1 goal in their seven games this season. Playing the second of back-to-back days and facing a stingy Flyers defense that has allowed two goals or less in four of five contests this season, they're not likely to break out here. Philadelphia skated to a 3-1 win in Nashville last night, continuing its surprisingly hot start to the campaign. Since scoring five goals in their season-opener against the Devils, the Flyers have scored exactly three goals in each of their four games since. The Sharks did limit the Flyers to just two goals in each of last year's two meetings and should bring some confidence that they can contain them again here after holding the Rangers and Devils to two goals apiece over their last two contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 12-2 the last 14 times the Sharks have played on the road off four losses in their last five games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.8 goals. The Flyers have played a long-term 136-98 to the 'under' in home non-conference affairs. Take the under (8*). |
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10-23-22 | Blue Jackets v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 goals over Columbus at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. The Blue Jackets had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 6-3 loss to the Penguins on home ice last night. Meanwhile, the Rangers have been idle since Thursday, when they suffered a rare home loss by a 3-2 score against San Jose. The Blueshirts clearly got caught looking past the lowly Sharks in that game after a 3-1 start to the campaign. I don't expect them to do the Blue Jackets any such favors on Sunday, however. Columbus is going to give up its share of goals. Note that it has allowed 4, 5, 5, 3, 3 and 6 goals in six contests so far this season. While the Jackets have scored 12 goals over their last three games, I expect them to run into trouble with the Rangers rested and off a disappointing loss, not to mention playing at home. Note that New York has allowed an average of just 2.1 goals in 28 games following a home defeat over the last three seasons. Columbus checks in averaging only 2.0 goals per contest when playing on the road against division opponents over the same stretch. Take New York -1.5 goals (10*). |
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10-22-22 | Kings v. Capitals UNDER 6.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Kings have seen the 'over' cash in four consecutive games while the Capitals have delivered back-to-back 'over' results. This amounts to 'getaway day' for both teams, however, noting that Los Angeles will fly back home to open a three-game homestand while Washington hops on a plane for a four-game road trip at the end of tonight's proceedings. I'm anticipating more of a 'low-event' affair here on Saturday with the 'under' having gone a perfect 2-0 in this series last season and 9-1 the last 10 times the Kings have played on the road in a 6-in-10 situation, as is the case here. Note that both teams are a little banged-up early in the season with the Kings missing Aaron Iafallo and the Caps recently losing Connor Brown to the I.R. Take the under (8*). |
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10-21-22 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games but I'm not all that high on either side offensively and expect a lower-scoring affair when they match up on Friday night in Chicago. Since opening the season with a 3-0 blanking of Montreal, Detroit has seen its last two contests total seven and nine goals. That's notable as the 'under' has gone 8-1 the last nine times the Red Wings have played on the road following a game that totalled nine goals or more, resulting in an average total of just 4.1 goals. The Blackhawks nearly tripled their offensive output through their first two games with a 5-2 victory in San Jose - that was last Saturday. They've been idle since. They had scored just two goals through their first two contests this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 10-4 the last 14 times Chicago has come off a game in which it scored five or more goals. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-22 | Hurricanes v. Oilers -110 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton over Carolina at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Oilers, who will be looking to avenge a pair of losses against the Hurricanes last season (in which they scored just two goals). Edmonton opened the campaign with a 5-3 win over the Canucks (which perhaps doesn't look as impressive given how poorly Vancouver has played). Since then, the Oilers have dropped consecutive home games against Calgary and Buffalo with the latter coming in embarrassing fashion two nights ago. Carolina is off to a perfect 3-0 start including consecutive wins to open its current five-game road trip. Here, we'll note that the Canes have gone a poor 42-74 the last 116 times they've played on the road following three straight victories. Meanwhile, the Oilers have outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals when playing at home after losing two of their last three games going back to the start of last season (22-game sample size). Take Edmonton (10*). |
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10-18-22 | Kings v. Predators -147 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -147 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Nashville over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings have secured consecutive wins to open their current road trip, including a wild 5-4 overtime victory last night in Detroit. The Predators opened the season with a pair of wins over the Sharks in Prague but have suffered a hangover of sorts since returning, dropping both games in a home-and-home series against the Stars. After a couple of days off, I look for the Preds to bounce back here, noting that they've gone an incredible 10-2 when coming off consecutive losses by 2+ goals over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average in that spot. Nashville took the first two meetings between these two teams last season before letting its guard down and dropping a lopsided 6-1 decision in Los Angeles in late March. The Kings haven't recorded a victory in Nashville since back in 2016. Take Nashville (10*). |
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10-17-22 | Avalanche v. Wild +1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -225 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota +1.5 goals over Colorado at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Wild are off to a disappointing 0-2 start to the season, allowing a whopping 14 goals in the process. This wouldn't figure to be an ideal bounce-back spot against the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche but I like the fact that we're able to grab an insurance goal with Minnesota, even if we do have to pay a heavy tariff to do so. The Avs are just 1-1 to start the campaign after suffering a 5-3 loss in Calgary to open this road trip. Note that Colorado has averaged just 2.8 goals the last 17 times it has played on the road following consecutive games that totalled seven or more goals, outscoring opponents by just 0.3 goals in that situation. The Wild check in an incredible 17-4 when coming off consecutive games in which they allowed 4+ goals over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, averaging 3.7 goals and outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time the Avs won by 2+ goals and that came on home ice almost a year ago. Colorado's last victory by two or more goals here in Minnesota came nearly two years ago, back in January of 2021. Take Minnesota +1.5 goals (8*). |
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10-17-22 | Canucks +1.5 v. Capitals | 4-6 | Loss | -200 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vancouver +1.5 goals over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Canucks are off to an 0-2 start to the season following losses in Edmonton and Philadelphia. I look for them to salvage at least a point in Monday's stop in Washington, however. Note that the Canucks are a perfect 5-0 when coming off a one-goal loss on the road going back to last season, outscoring opponents by a full 2.0 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Caps check in a woeful 2-7 when playing at home after giving up one goal or less in their previous contest over the same stretch, allowing 3.3 goals and outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that situation. While we're being asked to lay a considerable price to grab the insurance goal with the visitors here, I believe that price is warranted and could be even higher. Take Vancouver +1.5 goals (8*). |
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10-17-22 | Kings v. Red Wings UNDER 6 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Kings have already been involved in a couple of wild, high-scoring affairs this season, including last time out as they prevailed by a 7-6 score in Minnesota. Meanwhile, Detroit is fresh off a 5-2 victory in New Jersey - its second straight win to open the campaign. Here, I look for a lower-scoring affair as each team aims to pick up its third victory. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-6 with the Kings coming off a game that totalled eight or more goals over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 19-8 the last 27 times Detroit has played at home after scoring 4+ goals in its last game, leading to an average total of just 5.1 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 23-8 with the Wings coming off a victory by 2+ goals over the last 2+ seasons, with an average total of 5.3 goals scored in that spot. Finally, we'll note that the Wings have played to an average total of only 4.6 goals when coming off a contest in which they scored 5+ goals going back to the start of last season (12-game sample size). Take the under (8*). |
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10-13-22 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blackhawks were involved in a relatively high-scoring game in Colorado last night, dropping a 5-2 decision against the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche. That was a wild contest, with six of the seven goals coming by way of the power play, including four of Colorado's five tallies. At least credit the Blackhawks, who most have pegged as likely bottom-feeders in the Western Conference, for at least holding the Avs to just one even-strength goal. While the 'Hawks did manage to score two goals in that game, it's undoubtedly going to be a slog for them offensively. Note that they actually fired only 17 shots on goal in their season-opener. Now, playing the second of back-to-back nights against a Vegas squad that will be looking to tighten things up after yielding three goals in Los Angeles two nights ago, I look for Chicago to struggle here. We won with the 'over' in the Golden Knights season-opener but were certainly fortunate to cash that ticket as it was a 1-1 game early in the third period before the floodgates opened. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 13-4 with the Knights playing at home off a road game that saw both teams score 3+ goals, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 5.0 goals. That record goes back to when Vegas joined the league. Take the under (8*). |
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10-12-22 | Bruins v. Capitals -137 | 5-2 | Loss | -137 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We're being asked to lay a reasonable price to back the Capitals as they host the Bruins on Wednesday night. Boston took two of three meetings between these two teams last season but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday at least. The Bruins fired head coach Bruce Cassidy at the end of last season, hiring previously exiled Stars coach Jim Montgomery in a bit of a perplexing move. Regardless, the Bruins start the campaign at less than full strength with Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk sidelined. The Caps won't have the services of veteran Nick Backstrom or Tom Wilson to start the season but I like the additions they made with Connor Brown joining the top line with Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome centering the second line. I'm anticipating somewhat of a sophomore slump for Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman while the Caps make the move to Darcy Kuemper, who is only a few months removed from a Stanley Cup title with the Avalanche. While that move could be questioned, I do think the Caps have enough firepower to outlast the B's on opening night. Take Washington (8*). |
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10-12-22 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. PLEASE NOTE: Elvis Merzlikins is a late scratch for the Blue Jackets due to illness. Daniil Tarasov will start in goal in his place. That obviously works in our favor but the total will likely move to 6.5 as a result. I'll stick with the play. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair as the Blue Jackets head to Raleigh to face the Hurricanes on Wednesday. Columbus made a big splash in the offseason, landing perhaps the biggest free agent prize in Johnny Gaudreau. While there's not a ton of depth up front, I do like the way the Jackets top two lines shape up and feel this is a team that will get involved in plenty of high-scoring affairs this season given the deficiencies at the back-end. Watch for second-year right-winger Yehor Chinakhov, who had a terrific preseason, scoring six goals in seven games. Columbus' defensive corps ranks among the worst in the league while Elvis Merzlikins has never really lived up to expectations between the pipes. The hope was that Merzlikins would serve as an equalizer of sorts last season but he ended up logging a 3.22 GAA and .907 save percentage in 59 games. The Hurricanes don't necessarily get better defensively by adding Brent Burns, but he does give them a lift offensively. Burns contributed three goals and two assists in two preseason contests. Of course, it's the Hurricanes depth up front that is really the envy of the league. Carolina has three forward lines that can threaten to score on every shift - something that just can't be said for most teams. Goaltender Frederik Andersen is coming off a career year but I question whether he can duplicate that performance this season. Note that he allowed four goals on just 31 shots in two preseason appearances. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-22 | Golden Knights v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. Neither of these teams did anything to upgrade their situation between the pipes with the Golden Knights forced to go with the duo of Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit with Robin Lehner sidelined for the season due to injury and the Kings sticking with veteran Jonathan Quick and backup Cal Petersen. I do think both sides are fairly set offensively, with the Knights adding Phil Kessel in the offseason and the Kings making a big splash with the addition of Kevin Fiala to provide some much-needed scoring punch. The Knights have built out their forward depth to the point that guys like Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson now reside on the third line. With three capable scoring lines up front, not to mention a fourth line that includes Arthur Kaliyev, who performed exceptionally well during the preseason, the Kings boast a lot more offensive pop than we've seen in recent years. Last season's four matchups between these two teams totalled 8, 9, 7 and 6 goals and five of the last six meetings here in Los Angeles have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-22 | Lightning v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. This will be the 10th meeting between the Lightning and Rangers in the last 10+ months after the two teams did battle in the playoffs last June. Of the previous nine meetings over that stretch, seven of those contests stayed 'under' the total. We're likely to see a goaltending matchup of two of the best in the world in Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner. Vasilevskiy got in limited work in the preseason, allowing just five goals on 70 shots. Shesterkin wasn't quite as sharp, yielding six goals on 55 shots but I'm confident he can 'flip the switch' now that the games count for real. I do feel that the Lightning continue to weaken offensively with each passing year, losing key contributor Ondrej Palat this offseason. Defensively, they're still set with Hedman and Sergachev leading the way. You could make the case that the Bolts third defensive pairing of Haydn Fleury and Phillipe Myers could be the top pairing on several teams. Expect goals to come at a premium on Tuesday. Take the under (8*). |
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06-26-22 | Avalanche -113 v. Lightning | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 36 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Lightning in Game 3, the Avalanche in Game 4 and the Lightning on the puck-line in Game 4. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears once again and back Colorado as it looks to hoist the Stanley Cup on Sunday night in Tampa. Credit the Lightning for battling their way to a hard-fought 3-2 victory in Game 5 of this series on Friday. It wasn't all that difficult to see coming, however, as we're talking about the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions. The fourth win in a series is always the most difficult when it comes to the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the Avalanche have found that out first hand in each and every series so far. Just as they did against St. Louis in the second round, I look for Colorado to bounce back from a home loss in Game 5 with a road win in Game 6. There's no question the Avalanche have been the better team in this series but they obviously felt the pressure playing in front of the Cup-starved (Colorado's last Stanley Cup was won in 2001) home faithful. Look for the Avs to play much looser in Game 6 and ultimately prevail. Take Colorado (10*). |
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06-26-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning UNDER 6 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Game 5 of this series on Friday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 6 on Sunday. This series has certainly taken a turn since Tampa Bay delivered a 6-2 win in Game 3. Since then, we've seen consecutive 3-2 results. Now with the series shifting back to Tampa, there's little reason to expect anything different as the Lightning once again try to stay alive in this series. Keep in mind, Tampa Bay, while known for its offensive prowess, has been incredibly stingy on home ice this season, allowing only 2.5 goals per game. It gave up just four goals in regulation time against the high-powered Avs offense in Games 3 and 4 here at home. In fact, it has held Colorado to exactly two goals in regulation time in three straight contests. The Avs can play some defense as well. They've allowed less than 3.0 goals per game in the playoffs. On the three previous occasions they've come off a loss in these playoffs, they've given up exactly two goals in their next game each time, with the 'under' cashing in two of those three games. Expect a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday. Take the under (8*). |
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06-24-22 | Lightning +1.5 v. Avalanche | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 goals over Colorado at 8:15 pm et on Friday. It's been interesting to see how this series has played out to this point. Most wrote off the Lightning after their 7-0 drubbing in Game 2. However, they returned home and righted the ship with a 6-2 victory. That had most believing in the Bolts entering Game 4 (we weren't in that group, cashing our 10* Game of the Year with the Avalanche). Now everyone is quick to write off the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions once again. While Tampa Bay obviously faces a massive uphill battle, I believe it can at the very least take the Avalanche down to the wire on Friday night. That fourth victory can be especially tough to get when it comes to the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Avalanche know that, after all they lost a potential series-clinching Game 5 on home ice against St. Louis in the second round and then needed overtime to get past Edmonton in Game 4 last round. Here, we'll note that the Lightning are an incredible 41-15 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. Better still, they're 13-1 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 goals. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 goals (9*). |
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06-24-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Colorado at 8:15 pm et on Friday. We finally saw an 'under' result in this series in Game 4 as the Avalanche rallied twice from one-goal deficits to defeat the Lightning 3-2 in overtime, pushing them to the brink of elimination as the series shifts back to Colorado for Game 5 on Friday. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair. Note that low-scoring games tend to come in bunches for the Lightning, with the 'under' going 28-19 with Tampa Bay coming off an 'under' result this season, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 20-8 the last 28 times the Bolts laced them up for Game 5 of a playoff series, resulting in only 4.5 total goals on average. The Avs are of course known for their explosive offense but it's worth noting they've been incredibly stingy on home ice this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. Remember, they shut out the Lightning the last time these two met in Denver in Game 2. Tampa Bay has done a much better job of containing the Avs offense over the last two games, allowing only four goals in regulation time. While home ice certainly made a different, here, we'll note that the Lightning have allowed just 1.9 goals per game when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons (14-game sample size), as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.6 goals in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-22 | Avalanche +100 v. Lightning | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 36 h 14 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado over Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Lightning in Game 3 of this series on Monday as Tampa Bay showed up with its best effort of the series to avoid an 0-3 hole. Now I look for the Avs to answer back and push the Bolts to the brink of elimination before the series shifts back to Colorado for Game 5. It certainly wasn't surprising to see Tampa Bay push back and deliver a lopsided victory on Monday. After all, we are talking about the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions. The Lightning weren't simply going to roll over, certainly not on home ice. Things could have gone differently, however, were it not for an early disallowed Avalanche goal due to an offside call by way of review. Here, we'll note that Colorado checks in 34-12 when seeking revenge for a loss by 2+ goals against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.4 goals on average in that situation. While the Lightning may be known for their offensive prowess, this series certainly hasn't been played at their preferred pace. Note that they're a woeful 11-19 after three consecutive games totalling 7+ goals over the last three seasons, as is the case here, allowing 3.4 goals and outscored by 0.2 goals on average in that spot. Colorado has yet to lose consecutive games in these playoffs. It did drop six of seven games at the tail-end of the regular season but that was after it had wrapped up the President's Trophy and was more focused on managing the playing time of its stars. You would have to go all the way back to March 8th and 10th to find the last time the Avs lost consecutive 'meaningful' games and in that situation they were playing a third road game in four nights against a tough opponent in Carolina. You would have to go back eight meetings in this series to find the last time the Lightning managed to defeat the Avalanche in consecutive matchups, with that last taking place in October and December 2018. Take Colorado (10*). |
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06-20-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning -106 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Colorado at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Some will point to Saturday's 7-0 drubbing in Game 2 of this series as a reason for why it's difficult to back the Lightning here in Game 3 on Monday. I actually feel the lopsided nature of that game - which was never competitive - will serve the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions well in this spot as they were completely embarrassed 48 hours ago. Here, we'll note that the Lightning check in a perfect 9-0 when playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.2 goals on average in that spot. They're also an incredible 18-2 when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 4+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.1 goals in that situation. As I've noted time and time again in these playoffs, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, yet here we find the Avs off seven consecutive victories. Look for that streak to finally come to an end on Monday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-18-22 | Lightning +1.5 v. Avalanche | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -200 | 54 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 goals over Colorado at 8 pm et on Saturday. As I've noted time and time again in these playoffs, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Here, we find the Avalanche coming off six consecutive victories, a streak that I believe is getting a little long in the tooth. The Lightning couldn't have got off to much worse of a start in Game 1 yet still ended up pushing the Avs to overtime before falling by a 4-3 score. Here, we'll note that Tampa Bay checks in 26-7 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. Better still, the Bolts are 30-9 when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 4+ goals over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Additionally, Tampa Bay is 33-15 when trailing a playoff series, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals. While Colorado has now taken consecutive meetings against the Lightning on home ice, Tampa Bay is no stranger to winning in Denver, having reeled off five consecutive road wins in this series previously. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-11-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
My selection is on New York +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Lightning were left for dead in this series by some after digging an 0-2 hole entering Game 3 last Sunday. They also trailed Game 3 by two goals in the second period before rallying for a 3-2 victory. Save for their 4-1 Game 4 victory nothing has come all that easy for the Bolts in this series and that's to be expected as they're getting the Rangers best punch as they try to march on to their third straight Stanley Cup Final (and potential championship). I don't expect the Blueshirts to go away quietly on Saturday and we'll gladly grab the insurance goal as they try to stave off elimination. Note that New York checks in 11-3 after allowing 3+ goals in three consecutive games this season, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal on average in that situation. The Rangers have allowed just 1.6 goals per game and outscored opponents by 1.2 goals on average when playing on the road seeking revenge for three consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons (11-game sample size), as is the case here. Finally, we'll note that Tampa Bay is just 2-7 and has been outscored by an average margin of 2.2 goals after winning eight or more of its last 10 games this season, which is also the situation here. Take New York +1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-09-22 | Lightning v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We've been riding the 'under' in this series but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as the scene shifts back to Madison Square Garden for Game 5 on Thursday. While I hesitate to say that the Bolts have 'solved' Rangers all-world goaltender Igor Shesterkin, they've certainly put a dent in his armor over the last couple of games, scoring six goals on the Hart Trophy candidate. Note that all six of those goals have come in the last four-and-a-half periods. Shesterkin has looked a little tired, and gets little relief here with just one day between games once again. The Rangers struggled to sustain any sort of offensive attack in the last two games in Tampa but we should see a different story unfold back in New York, noting that the Blueshirts average 3.4 goals per game on home ice and put nine pucks in the back of the net in Games 1 and 2. The Bolts haven't been nearly as stingy on the road as they've been at home this season, allowing 3.1 goals per contest. Note that the 'over' is 17-8 with the Lightning playing on the road off five or six wins over their last seven games this season, leading to an average total of 7.2 goals. Meanwhile, the Rangers have posted a 12-4 o/u mark when coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.3 goals in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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06-07-22 | Rangers v. Lightning -164 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Lightning in Game 3 of this series on Sunday as they rallied from a 2-0 deficit to prevail by a 3-2 score. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Tampa Bay again in Game 4 on Tuesday as it looks to knot this series at two games apiece before heading back to Manhattan. The Lightning are now 32-15 on home ice this season including 5-1 in the playoffs. While the Bolts are known for their offense, they've been as stingy as they come here on home ice, allowing just 2.6 goals per game this season while outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average. The same trend we used to support our play on Tampa Bay in Game 3 still works in Game 4 as the Bolts are now an incredible 16-1 when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons, allowing just 1.7 goals per contest and outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. The Rangers just haven't been the same team away from Madison Square Garden this season, posting a modest 27-22 record while failing to outscore their opponents on a per-game average. It seemed to me that the Lightning solved Rangers elite goaltender Igor Shesterkin as the game went on Sunday afternoon, peppering him with an incredible 52 shots on goal in that contest and finding the back of the net three times in the final 30 minutes. Expect some carry-over from that thrilling come-from-behind victory on Tuesday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-06-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers UNDER 7 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
Western Conference Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Edmonton at 8 pm et on Monday. Bettors are still waiting for a return to the form that saw Game 1 of this series total a whopping 14 goals. We've cashed with the 'under' in each of the last two games and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 4 on Monday as we haven't seen much of an adjustment to the total at all at most books. Both teams will be missing some offensive firepower in this one with Evander Kane suspended for one game for his hit on Nazem Kadri (who will also be sidelined due to injury). The Oilers have now allowed 4+ goals in four straight games - the first time they've done that since January. On the flip side, the Avs have scored 4+ goals in each of the first three games in this series - the first time they've scored four goals or more in three consecutive games since January as well. While I've been critical of Oilers goaltender Mike Smith at times, he certainly hasn't been the problem in this series. In fact, in Game 3 he kept Edmonton in the game early, making a number of key saves on an Avs two-man advantage. Meanwhile, Pavel Francouz has filled in admirably for an injured Darcy Kuemper for Colorado. With Leon Draisaitl clearly not 100% healthy, the Oilers haven't been quite as much of a handful offensively, Connor McDavid's exploits aside. Here, we'll note that Edmonton has posted a 6-15 o/u record when playing at home off a home loss by 2+ goals over the last two seasons with that situation totalling an average of just 5.2 goals. The 'under' is also 10-3 with the Oilers having allowed 4+ goals in consecutive games this season, resulting in an average total of 5.8 goals in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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06-05-22 | Rangers v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 3 pm et on Sunday. While the scene will shift to Tampa for Game 3 of this series on Sunday afternoon, I'm not convinced that means the floodgates will suddenly open for the Lightning and we'll see a high-scoring affair. Nothing has come easy for the Bolts through the first two games of this series and noting that Brayden Point remains sidelined, I don't see that changing on Sunday. They're going to need to grind it out and that's just fine as they've actually thrived playing that style at home this season, going 31-15 while allowing just 2.6 goals per game. On the flip side, we'll note that the Rangers average just 2.9 goals per game on the road this season and check in sporting an 11-19 o/u mark when coming off four wins in their last five games, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 5.3 goals. The 'under' is 19-8 with New York playing on the road with the total set at 5.5 this season, resulting in an average total of only 5.2 goals. Take the under (6*). |
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06-05-22 | Rangers v. Lightning -170 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 3 pm et on Sunday. As I've pointed out time and time again in these playoffs, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the NHL postseason. We saw that play out at the start of this series as the Rangers snapped Tampa's six-game winning streak with a victory in Game 1 (and then went on to win Game 2 as well). Now we'll look for the Lightning to bring an end to the Rangers four-game winning streak, noting that New York is just 5-15 when playing on the road after scoring 3+ goals in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Lightning are an incredible 12-1 when playing at home seeking revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by 2.2 goals on average. Tampa Bay also checks in 15-1 when playing at home coming off two losses in its last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.9 goals on average in that spot. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-04-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers UNDER 7 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Edmonton at 8 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the series shifts to Edmonton on Saturday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-7 with the Oilers having allowed 3+ goals in three consecutive games this season, as is the case here and also 9-3 when coming off back-to-back games giving up 4+ goals - also the situation tonight. In fact, the 'under' is a long-term 134-102 with Edmonton coming off consecutive contests in which it allowed 4+ goals. While the Avalanche have goaltending concerns with Darcy Kuemper potentially sidelined again, they have to feel pretty good about what backup Pavel Francouz gave them in Game 2, posting a shutout after the Oilers scored six times in Game 1. Despite dropping a 4-0 decision, Oilers goaltender Mike Smith held up far better in Game 2 than he did in the series-opener as he was once again peppered with 40 shots. We can anticipate Edmonton throwing everything it has at Colorado defensively in this one. You would have to go back four meetings here in Edmonton to find the last time the Avs scored more than three goals in a game on this ice. Take the under (8*). |
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06-02-22 | Oilers v. Avalanche UNDER 7 | 0-4 | Win | 129 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Colorado at 8 pm et on Thursday. Recency bias certainly plays a major factor when it comes to the playoffs, whether it be the NBA or the NHL. In this case, we just saw a wild, high-scoring affair that featured a whopping 14 goals in Game 1 and not only that, but the Avs lost starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper to an injury. We were unfortunately on the 'under' in that contest - not a wise call by any means - but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here with 7's offering a plus-money return and even some 7.5's popping up at some books. Note that the 'under' is 17-10 with the Oilers playing on the road following a game that totalled 7+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of just 6.4 goals. The 'under' is also 21-12 with Edmonton coming off consecutive games in which it allowed 3+ goals, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 6.2 goals. Take the under (9*). |
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06-02-22 | Oilers +1.5 v. Avalanche | 0-4 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton +1.5 goals over Colorado at 8 pm et on Thursday. As I've mentioned time and time again during these playoffs, long winning streaks simply aren't commonplace in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. So it didn't come as a surprise that we saw Edmonton drop Game 1 of this series as it came in riding a four-game winning streak. Here, I look for the Oilers to answer back, noting they've gone 9-2 when playing on the road off a road loss by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average in that situation. Perhaps even better still, they're 33-13 after allowing 5+ goals in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. After their dominant Game 1 performance, it's easy to forget that the Avalanche didn't win by more than a single goal in any of their three regular season meetings with the Oilers. Take Edmonton +1.5 goals (8*). |
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06-01-22 | Lightning v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the Rangers stunning 6-2 win over the Hurricanes in Game 7 of their Eastern Conference semi-final series on Monday. I won't hesitate to go the other way with the 'under' in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final on Wednesday night. The Lightning saw all four of their games against the in-state rival Panthers stay 'under' the total - a much different outcome than most were expecting. Likewise, the Rangers saw the first five games of their series against Carolina stay 'under' before things opened up in Games 6 and 7. While there will be plenty of offensive firepower on display in this series, I'm not sure we'll see it right out of the gate on Wednesday night. Note that the 'under' is 14-5 with the Lightning playing with double-revenge, as is the case here after the Rangers took the final two regular season meetings between these two teams, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 29-15 with the Blueshirts playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here. New York allows just 2.3 goals per game at Madison Square Garden this season and it has a red hot, world-class goaltender in Igor Shesterkin. The Lightning have their own elite goaltender in Andrei Vasilevskiy and he posted a ridiculous .981 save percentage in Tampa Bay's four-game sweep of Florida. Expect goals to be tough to come by in the series-opener. Take the under (8*). |
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05-31-22 | Oilers v. Avalanche UNDER 7 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -129 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Colorado at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We're being offered a total of 7 at plenty of books leading up to Game 1 of the Western Conference Final between the Oilers and Avalanche. The 'over' cashed in four of the Oilers five games against the Flames last round. Credit the Oilers for taking it to their in-province rivals and ultimately prevailing in fewer games than most would have imagined. They'll face a much tougher challenge here, however. Colorado had to break a sweat but ultimately got past the Blues in six games last round. While the Avalanche boast a potent offense, it's important to note that their defensive play has been terrific as well. Note that the Avs have given up three goals or less in eight of 10 playoff games. They held the Oilers to two goals or less in consecutive meetings earlier this season before dropping a 6-3 decision in Edmonton very late in the regular season when they were already looking ahead to the playoffs, mired in a 1-6 slide to end the campaign. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Oilers playing on the road after winning four consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 5.0 goals. This season, the 'under' is 9-3 with the Oilers playing on the road after consecutive games that totalled 7+ goals, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 6.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Avs have seen the 'under' cash at a 14-3 clip when playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.3 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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05-30-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 125 | 36 h 33 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Carolina at 8 pm et on Monday. We've been riding the 'under' throughout this series, with considerable success. Now that the genie is finally out of the bottle, so to speak, following the Rangers high-scoring 5-2 victory on Saturday night, I look for another relatively high-scoring contest in Game 7 on Monday night. The Canes fired a whopping 39 shots on goal in Saturday's loss but didn't really generate enough dangerous scoring chances to keep pace with the Blueshirts. That should change back at home. New York seemed to finally solve Canes goaltender Antti Raanta on Saturday, finding the back of the net three times on just 13 shots before he was replaced. Raanta has played as well as he has at any point of his career in these playoffs but you have to wonder if the clock could be striking midnight. The Rangers certainly boast plenty of firepower and have now scored 13 goals in taking three of the last four games in this series. The Canes are at home for Game 7, however, and I'm confident they can bounce back from their poor showing on Saturday, noting that they have scored 21 goals in their last five home contests following a loss, good for an average of over 4.0 goals per game. Take the over (10*). |
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05-28-22 | Hurricanes v. Rangers -106 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Carolina at 8 pm et on Saturday. Game 5 of this series was interesting as the Hurricanes jumped ahead 1-0 early before the Rangers quickly tied things up and then New York seemingly grabbed a 2-1 lead in the second period before that goal was called back. From there the tide turned back in the hometown Canes favor as they went on to score the next two goals in a 3-1 victory. Who knows how that contest would have played out were it not for the disallowed Rangers goal. New York certainly carried the play for much of the game, outshooting Carolina by a wide 34-17 margin. That was the fourth straight game in which the Rangers held the advantage in terms of shots on goal. I like New York to bounce back here at home, where it has gone an impressive 32-15 this season, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal on average. The Canes are actually one of the weakest road teams remaining in the playoffs, with a 25-21 record, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average but allowing just shy of 3.0 goals per contest. Note here that the Rangers are 11-3 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 1.3 goals on average in that spot. Better still, the Blueshirts are 7-1 when that road loss came by 2+ goals, which is the situation here, outscoring opponents by 1.3 goals on average along the way. The home team has now won all 12 games the Hurricanes have played in these playoffs. I'm not going to go against the grain here. Take New York (10*). |
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05-27-22 | Avalanche -168 v. Blues | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
My selection is on Colorado over St. Louis at 8 pm et on Friday. The Avalanche couldn't close the deal in Game 5 on Wednesday, despite building a 3-0 lead and seemingly having proceedings in full control. While the Blues did well to battle back and ultimately win in overtime, I don't expect them to turn the trick again on Friday. Note that the Blues 'home ice advantage' has been virtually non-existent lately, 0-2 in this series and 2-5 over their last five games here in St. Louis. Colorado checks in 28-17 on the road this season where it has outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.5 goals. There's just not a lot for the Blues to hang their hat on here, even after Wednesday's thrilling victory, noting that they've been outshot 71-50 over the last two games and goaltender Ville Husso has performed admirably since taking over for an injured Jordan Binnington, but he's in no position to steal a game having allowed nine goals over the last two games. Take Colorado (10*). |
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05-26-22 | Oilers v. Flames -145 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
Western Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Calgary over Edmonton at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. The Flames ran into a buzz-saw in Edmonton, dropping both games to fall behind 3-1 in this series. In fact, the Oilers have won three games in a row since losing the series-opener by a 9-6 score. As I've noted previously, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. We've seen it time and time again. Here, I look for the Flames to answer back on home ice, where they're 29-18 and outscore opponents by 1.3 goals on average this season. We'll also note that the Oilers are a woeful 2-12 the last 14 times they've played on the road after consecutive home wins by 2+ goals, as is the case here, outscored by 1.3 goals on average along the way. Take Calgary (10*). |
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05-26-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes -151 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over New York at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the Hurricanes on the puck-line on Tuesday as they fell by a 4-1 score at Madison Square Garden. With the scene shifting back to Raleigh for Game 5 - where the Canes are a perfect 6-0 in these playoffs - I won't hesitate to come right back with them again here. Carolina has been incredibly stingy here at home this season, going 35-12 while allowing just 2.0 goals per contest. Needless to say, that's critical in a tight-checking, low-scoring series such as this one. New York checks in 26-20 on the road but has actually failed to outscore the opposition by any margin, allowing 2.9 goals per game. This is one of our preferred spots to back the Canes, noting that they've allowed just 2.1 goals per contest and outscored opponents by 0.9 goals on average when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons (23-game sample size). Take Carolina (8*). |
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05-25-22 | Blues +1.5 v. Avalanche | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 goals over Colorado at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Blues on the puck-line in Game 4 of this series as they did well to battle back from a 4-1 deficit to get within a goal prior to the third period but ultimately fell by a 6-3 score. I do like them to make life difficult on the Avs in Wednesday's potential elimination game, noting that St. Louis checks in 10-3 when playing on the road seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. Perhaps better still, the Blues are 10-2 when coming off a game in which they gave up 6+ goals over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. The Avs on the other hand are a long-term 53-64 when returning home following a road win by 2+ goals. Noting that St. Louis has been a 'tough out' on the road all season, actually outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average (remember it lost in overtime in Game 1 of this series before winning game 2 by a 4-1 score, I look for it to hang tough again here. Take St. Louis +1.5 goals (8*). |
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05-24-22 | Hurricanes +1.5 v. Rangers | 1-4 | Loss | -250 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina +1.5 goals over New York at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The home team has won all three games so far in this series. In fact, the home team has now won all 10 of Carolina's playoff games to date. I believe that works in our favor here as we're able to grab the insurance goal with the Hurricanes on Tuesday night, noting that the home team hasn't won more than three consecutive games in this particular matchup since the 2016-17 season. While the Rangers took Game 3 of this series on Sunday (we won with New York in that game), you could certainly argue that the Hurricanes were the better team for much of the game, outshooting New York by a 44-33 margin. Carolina has already won twice at Madison Square Garden this season and checks in 25-20 away from home, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average. When playing on the road off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons, we've seen the Canes outscored the opposition by 0.3 goals on average, allowing just 2.5 goals per contest in that situation (33-game sample size). We're obviously being asked to play a steep price to grab the insurance goal with Carolina here, but I believe it's warranted. Take Carolina +1.5 goals (6*). |
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05-24-22 | Hurricanes v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and New York at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This series has been incredibly low-scoring - precisely what we expected after both teams got involved in far higher-scoring series' than anticipated in the opening round of the playoffs. I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday as we watch a pivotal Game 4 unfold. Note that the 'under' is 17-6 with the Canes coming off a loss by 2+ goals against a divisional opponent over the last three seasons and 22-11 when playing on the road off a loss of any margin against a divisional foe over the last two campaigns. Both situations are in play here after Sunday's 3-1 loss in Game 3 (we won with the Rangers in that contest). The Rangers, meanwhile, have been a streaky 'under' team all season, with the 'under' going 31-18 when coming off an 'under' result, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 11-4 when the Blueshirts play at home off a home victory, resulting in just 4.9 total goals on average in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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05-23-22 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -165 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
Second Round Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 goals over Colorado at 9:30 pm et on Monday. We won with the Avalanche on Saturday as they skated to a 5-2 victory to grab a 2-1 series lead. I won't hesitate to go the other way on Monday, however, as the Blues look to answer back, just as they did in Game 2 of the series. Yes, St. Louis lost goaltender Jordan Binnington to an injury after a questionable play from Nazim Kadri in Game 3 on Saturday. Ville Husso is certainly a capable backup, however, noting that he actually began the playoffs as the starter before being replaced by Binnington following a couple of poor performances against the Wild. Prior to Game 2 of the opening round against Minnesota, Husso had gone a perfect 12-0 in his last 12 starts when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line, as we'll be using to our advantage here. Note that Colorado has allowed 4.1 goals per game, outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals when coming off a road win in which it scored 4+ goals over the last two seasons (14-game sample size). Meanwhile, St. Louis checks in averaging 3.8 goals per contest and outscoring opponents by 0.5 goals on average when coming off two losses in its last three games this season (25-game sample size), as is the case here. This is obviously a critical game for the Blues as they're not likely to reel off three straight victories against a team as good as the Avalanche should they dig a 3-1 series hole. Note that St. Louis has responded well to adversity in these playoffs, notching victories on both previous occasions when trailing a series with those two wins coming by a combined 9-3 margin. Take St. Louis +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-22-22 | Flames v. Oilers UNDER 7 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Edmonton at 8 pm et on Sunday. We've seen two wild, high-scoring games to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold as the series shifts to Edmonton for Game 3 on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 12-5 with the Flames coming off consecutive games in which they allowed 3+ goals this season. Likewise, the 'under' is 20-11 with the Oilers following the same scenario. The 'under' is also 18-9 with the Oilers playing at home off a road victory by 2+ goals over the last two seasons. The 'under' is actually a long-term 42-25 in the last 67 instalments of the 'Battle of Alberta' here in Edmonton. Take the under (7*). |
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05-22-22 | Hurricanes v. Rangers +105 | 1-3 | Win | 105 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Carolina at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. The Hurricanes have now won three games in a row - their longest such streak of the playoffs to date. Off a shutout victory in Game 2, I look for the Canes to suffer a letdown in Game 3 as the scene shifts to Madison Square Garden. Note that Carolina is a miserable 1-6 when coming off consecutive games in which it allowed one goal or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. They're also a miserable 41-70 when coming off 3+ consecutive victories in the long-term picture. The Rangers are an impressive 8-1 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they were shut out over the last two seasons. They've also 10-2 when coming off consecutive losses this season, which is also the situation here. Take New York (8*). |
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05-22-22 | Panthers -104 v. Lightning | 1-5 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Tampa Bay at 1:30 pm et on Sunday. As I've mentioned on numerous occasions previously, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the NHL Playoffs. Here, the Lightning will be looking to deliver a fifth consecutive victory after improbably taking Games 1 and 2 in Sunrise. Note that the Bolts are 2-6 after winning 4+ games in a row this season. I look for the Panthers to answer back on Sunday afternoon. Florida has now dropped consecutive games, its longest losing streak since dropping three in a row from February 22nd to 26th. The Cats are 13-2 after being held to one goal or less in their previous game over the last two seasons and 30-15 when playing on the road off a loss over the last three seasons. Take Florida (9*). |
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05-21-22 | Avalanche -161 v. Blues | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 3 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over St. Louis at 8 pm et on Saturday. We cashed our free play on the Blues puck-line in Game 2 of this series on Thursday but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Avs as the series shifts to St. Louis on Saturday. After a dominant performance in Game 1 (Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington stood on his head in that overtime loss), Colorado was brought back to Earth in Game 2. That wasn't all that surprising, as I noted in my analysis that long winning streaks aren't all that commonplace in the NHL Playoffs (the Avs had won five games in a row to open the postseason). Now I look for Colorado to answer back, noting that it has gone 18-5 when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored one goal or less over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Blues are just 5-12 in their last 17 games when tied in a playoff series and playing on home ice (including 0-1 in these playoffs), outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that spot. Take Colorado (10*). |
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05-20-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Carolina at 8 pm et on Friday. Not surprisingly, things have tightened up considerably following a high-scoring opening round. This series is no exception as Game 1 produced just two goals in regulation time two nights ago. I expect more of the same on Friday. Carolina is as stingy as it gets at home, allowing just 2.1 goals per game with the 'under' going 26-18-2 in Raleigh this season. While the Rangers weren't able to grab a win in Game 1, it had to be encouraging to hold the Hurricanes to just a single goal in regulation time after struggling mightily to keep the puck out of their own net against Pittsburgh last round. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 40-23 with the Rangers playing on the road off a road loss against a division opponent, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 17-7 with the Rangers on the road with the total set at 5.5 goals this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.3 goals. Carolina has seen the 'under' go 29-16 at home in division games over the same stretch, with that situation producing an average total of 5.2 goals. Take the under (8*). |
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05-19-22 | Lightning v. Panthers -155 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -155 | 32 h 28 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida over Tampa Bay at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the Panthers in Game 1. I can't help but think after grabbing an early 1-0 lead they thought the Lightning would just roll over, especially with Brayden Point sidelined and coming off a grueling seven-game series against the Leafs that saw them rally to win the final two games. That wasn't the case of course as Tampa Bay outmuscled Florida in a 4-1 victory. Now it's on the Panthers to bounce back and I expect them to do just that on Thursday. Note that Florida checks in an incredible 13-1 when coming off a game in which it scored one goal or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average in that spot. Perhaps better still, the Panthers are 20-3 when playing at home after allowing 3+ goals in consecutive games over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by 2.1 goals on average while putting up an incredible 4.7 goals per contest. We know this is a critical contest for the Panthers as they can ill afford to dig themselves an 0-2 hole the way they did against the Lightning in last year's opening round playoff series. As I've noted previously, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I suppose I should have taken my own advice in Game 1 of this series as the Panthers were looking for a fourth straight win. Now it's the Lightning that will be aiming to win a fourth consecutive game. I expect them to fall short. Take Florida (10*). |
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05-18-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes -159 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over New York at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Long winning streaks aren't commonplace in the NHL Playoffs - at least not anymore. We saw evidence of that again last night as the Panthers failed to deliver a fourth straight victory, falling by a 4-1 score at home against the Lightning. Here, the Rangers will be aiming for their fourth consecutive win after rallying from a 3-1 series deficit to prevail in overtime in Game 7 against the Penguins last round. I expect them to fall short in Wednesday's series-opener. Carolina remains undefeated on home ice in these playoffs - an impressive accomplishment considering it faced a team that enjoyed plenty of road success during the regular season in the Bruins during the opening round. The Canes are now an incredible 33-12 on home ice this season, allowing a stingy 2.1 goals per game while outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average. They catch the Rangers in a favorable spot here, noting that New York has gone 5-14 when coming off three consecutive games scoring 3+ goals over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.5 goals in that situation. Take Carolina (8*). |
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05-18-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Carolina at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I don't expect this series to play out anything like these two teams' high-scoring opening round series'. We inexplicably saw 7+ goals in all seven games between the Rangers and Penguins while the Canes saw six of their seven games against the Bruins total at least six goals. I expect the scoring to settle down considerably in the round two opener between these two squads on Wednesday, noting that the 'under' is 7-1 with the Rangers coming off an overtime win this season, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. The 'under' is 28-16 with the Canes playing at home against division opponents over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.2 goals. The last time these two teams faced each other here in Raleigh, the Rangers skated to a low-scoring 2-0 victory back on March 30th. The 'under' checks in 6-5 in the last 11 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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05-17-22 | Lightning v. Panthers -155 | 4-1 | Loss | -155 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Tampa Bay at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning rallied to win consecutive games after falling behind 3-2 in the series against the Leafs last round, adding to Toronto's long history of playoff collapses. Now Tampa makes the short trip to Sunrise to face the in-state rival Panthers and I look for it to fall short in Game 1. Florida hasn't just been good at home this season, it has been dominant, going 36-8 while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 goals. The fact that Tampa took the most recent meeting between these two teams by an 8-4 score back in late April actually serves Florida well, noting that it has gone 15-3 when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss by 2+ goals against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. The Panthers also own an incredible 15-2 record when playing at home off a victory this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.6 goals in that situation. Take Florida (8*). |
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05-15-22 | Stars v. Flames UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
First Round Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Sunday. We've already seen the three games played in Calgary in this series total just 3, 1 and 4 goals and I anticipate more of the same in Game 7 on Sunday. Nothing has come all that easy for the Flames in this series, despite the fact that they've outplayed the Stars most of the way. Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger has stood on his head at times and as a result Calgary has managed to find the back of the net just 12 times through six games. The good news is, the Flames have been ultra-stingy defensively here at home all season, giving up only 2.3 goals per contest. Scoring has been an issue for the Stars on the road all season, averaging just 2.5 goals per game. When playing on the road following a home game over the last two seasons (27-game sample size), they've averaged just 2.2 goals per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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05-14-22 | Bruins v. Hurricanes -130 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Boston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. The home team has owned this series, winning all six games to date. I expect that trend to continue in Game 7 on Saturday as the Hurricanes wrap up the series on home ice. Note that Carolina checks in allowing just 2.1 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons (22-game sample size), as is the case here. The Canes have averaged an impressive 3.7 goals per game when seeking revenge for a road loss by 2+ goals over the same stretch (11-game sample size), which is also the situation here. Credit Boston for forcing a seventh-and-deciding game in this series but its victory in Game 6 was anything but unexpected (we won with the Bruins in that game). The fact is, none of the games in this series have been all that close with the home side dominating and there's little reason to expect anything different here. Take Carolina (6*). |
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05-13-22 | Flames v. Stars +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas +1.5 goals over Calgary at 9:30 pm et on Friday. We've won with the Flames in each of the last two games. While I'm still confident they'll win this series, I'm not sure it will come easy. Note that the Stars have certainly been a 'tough out' at home this season, going 28-15 while outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average. Using a long-term 125-game sample size, Dallas has outscored the opposition by 0.3 goals on average when playing at home seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent, as is the case here. As we've noted previously in this series, the Flames are just 6-20 the last 26 times they've led a playoff series, averaging just 2.2 goals per game and outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that situation. Take Dallas +1.5 goals (3*). |
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05-12-22 | Wild +1.5 v. Blues | 1-5 | Loss | -255 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota +1.5 goals over St. Louis at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. We can anticipate the Wild bouncing back from consecutive 5-2 losses on Thursday night as they face elimination in St. Louis. Minnesota has gone a perfect 8-0 when coming off a loss against a division opponent in which it allowed 4+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.7 goals on average in that situation. Better still, the Wild are a perfect 9-0 when coming off a home loss by 2+ goals this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.5 goals in that spot. When playing on the road off consecutive losses over the last two seasons, the Wild have posted an impressive 9-2 record, averaging 3.7 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals in that situation. We'll grab the insurance goal here but may not need it. Take Minnesota +1.5 goals (2*). |
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05-12-22 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning -130 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We've yet to see a team register consecutive wins in this series and I don't think that changes here as the Lightning face elimination on home ice. Note that Toronto is just 8-13 when playing on the road after scoring 3+ goals in four consecutive games over the last two seasons, allowing 3.9 goals per game and outscored by 0.3 goals on average in that situation. They've also gone just 8-12 when coming off a home win by one goal over that same stretch. Meanwhile, the Lightning check in an incredible 14-1 when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.9 goals on average. They've also gone 24-5 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the same stretch, averaging 3.7 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. Take Tampa Bay (6*). |
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05-12-22 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -122 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Non-Division First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Carolina at 7 pm et on Thursday. Home ice advantage has mattered in this playoff series. That's actually an understatement as the home team has outscored the opposition by a 24-8 margin through the first five games with all five of those contests decided by 2+ goals. The Bruins did welcome Charlie McAvoy back from Covid protocols last time out but it wasn't enough as they dug themselves an early hole and never recovered. I expect a different story to play out on Thursday. Note that Boston has allowed just 1.9 goals per game and outscored opponents by 0.8 goals on average when playing at home after losing four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons (18-game sample size), as is the case here. On the flip side, the Canes have gone 16-25 when playing on the road after winning five or six of their last seven contests over the last three seasons, allowing 3.3 goals per game while being outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. While it's not well-advised to employ such a hot-and-cold style, especially at this time of year, the Bruins have the talent on hand to 'flip the switch' so to speak. We saw it when the scene shifted to Boston earlier this season as the B's looked like a completely different team in Games 3 and 4 on home ice. Note that they check in 5-1 off a loss by 4+ goals this season and 10-4 after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-11-22 | Stars v. Flames -208 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary over Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. It may sound strange given the series is knotted at two games apiece, but no first round matchup has been as lopsided as this one. We won with the Flames in Game 4 on Monday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the scene shifts back to Calgary for Game 5. The Flames fired a whopping 95 shots on goal over the course of Games 3 and 4 in Dallas but only managed to come away with one victory. They've outshot the Stars 150-106 in this series. I don't expect the tide to suddenly turn in Calgary, noting that the Stars average just 2.5 goals per game while being outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals on the road this season. They're a woeful 7-19 when heading out on the road following a home game over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that situation. The Flames good but not great 26-17 home record doesn't tell the whole story as they've averaged 3.7 goals per game on home ice while allowing just 2.3 on average. Take Calgary (4*). |
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05-11-22 | Penguins v. Rangers UNDER 6.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Game 5 often serves as the pivotal game in a series. In this particular case, it could bring an end to the series as the Penguins look to eliminate the Rangers in unceremonious fashion at Madison Square Garden. This series hasn't gone the way most expected. The four regular season matchups between these two teams produced just 1, 6, 5 and 3 goals. We've yet to see a game in this playoff series stay 'under' seven goals. I expect that to change with the Rangers facing elimination on Wednesday, however. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 16-8 with the Penguins playing on the road after consecutive wins by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.8 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 28-15 with the Rangers seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 5.9 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 26-11 when those two losses saw the opponent score 3+ goals, which is the situation here, resulting in an average total of only 5.8 goals in that spot. Take the under (8*). |
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05-10-22 | Bruins v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Carolina at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Bruins exploded for nine goals in Games 3 and 4 of this series, evening up proceedings at two games apiece. That was at home though. Now they go back on the road, where they average less than 3.0 goals per game this season and scored just three goals in Games 1 and 2 combined. The Hurricanes have been incredibly stingy at home this season, allowing just 2.1 goals per game in Raleigh. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone 24-18-1 here in Carolina. With all of that being said, we're still working with a '6' here as all four games in this series have gone 'over' the total. I expect that to change on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-8 with the Bruins having scored 4+ goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.3 goals. The 'under' is 16-6 with the Hurricanes playing at home after losing two of their last three contests over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. While this playoff series has been high-scoring, it's worth noting that the previous three meetings between these two teams in Carolina all totalled four goals or less, including a 3-0 Canes victory earlier this season. Take the under (10*). |
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05-09-22 | Flames -155 v. Stars | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary over Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Monday. We missed with the Flames in Game 3 of this series on Saturday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 4 on Monday. Most expected this to be a relatively quick series with the Flames the heavy favorite heading in. It hasn't played out that way, however, with Dallas rebounding from a 1-0 loss in Game 1 with consecutive victories. While the Stars have gone an impressive 28-14 at home this season, nearly half of those 14 losses have come since March 12th, six of them to be exact. The Flames, meanwhile, have been one of the league's best road teams, going 25-17 while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals. Dallas checks in averaging just 2.5 goals per game while being outscored by 0.4 goals on average when coming off four or five wins in their last six games this season (35-game sample size), as is the case here. The Stars have also been outscored by 0.3 goals on average, allowing 3.4 goals per game when coming off a home win in which they scored 4+ goals over the last two seasons (26-game sample size), which is also the situation here. Take Calgary (3*). |
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05-09-22 | Rangers v. Penguins UNDER 6 | 2-7 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Pittsburgh at 7 pm et on Monday. This series has been much higher-scoring than expected with the first three games totalling 7, 7 and 11 goals. Saturday's Game 3 here in Pittsburgh broke wide open early with the Penguins scoring four times in the first period alone (they led 4-1 entering the second period). I'm certain that neither team has been pleased with the way they've played defensively in this series. Keep in mind, the Rangers give up just 2.6 goals per game on the season while the Pens check in yielding an average of 2.8 goals per contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Rangers playing on the road off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of only 4.9 goals. Meanwhile, the Penguins have seen the 'under' go 15-5 when playing at home off a win by 2+ goals over a division opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of just 4.8 goals in that spot. Interestingly, the regular season saw three of four meetings between these two teams total five goals or less, including a 1-0 result in favor of the Penguins here in Pittsburgh. Remember, we saw a stretch of 3+ periods without a goal back in the series-opener last week before the Pens prevailed in triple-overtime. Take the under (8*). |
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05-09-22 | Rangers -104 v. Penguins | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
NHL First Round Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Pittsburgh at 7 pm et on Monday. I don't feel that we've seen the Rangers best performance yet in this series. Sure, there was a 5-2 victory in Game 2 but even in that contest, it didn't seem like the Blueshirts were in complete control. Off a 7-4 drubbing on Saturday - a game that featured a furious second period rally from New York after falling behind 4-1 after the first - I look for the Rangers to bounce back in a big way on Monday. A stunningly poor performance from likely Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin highlighted Game 3 on Saturday. He was pulled early in that contest, a rare sight for sure. I certainly expect the world class goaltender to rebound with a much better performance here. Note that the Rangers check in 15-6 after losing two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. Better still, they're 7-1 after losing five or six of their last seven contests over the last two seasons, as is the case here, averaging 4.0 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. When seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season they've allowed an average of only 1.7 goals per game while averaging 3.8 themselves, going 9-1 along the way. The last 37 times we've seen the Penguins play on home ice when leading a playoff series they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.2 goals. Take New York (10*). |
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05-08-22 | Hurricanes v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Boston at 12:30 pm et on Sunday. This is obviously the pivotal game in this series so far and while it's been a relatively high-scoring matchup to this point with all three games finding their way 'over' 5.5 goals, I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Bruins coming off three losses in their last four games this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals. The 'over' has now cashed in five straight meetings between these two teams - the longest such streak in the series since 2013-2014. Take the under (6*). |