Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State OVER 59 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Marshall and Appalachian State played each other last season. Marshall pulled the outright upset on their way to a 7-0 start. It was a very low-scoring game, 17-7, as most Thundering Herd games were in 2020. It was a team with one of the best defenses in the country but a fairly inept offense. The inept offense ended up getting Doc Holliday fired when the Herd lost their last three games while averaging 7.7 points. Under Charles Huff, the offense has been reborn this year as it is averaging 43.7 points and 603 yards per game. The defense just gave up 42 though in a loss to East Carolina last week. Appalachian State can also score as they are putting up 33.3 points/game through three weeks. So this has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. The O/U line for last year’s game was pretty comparable to what we’ve got here. Obviously, the teams couldn’t come close to the number last year. But this year Marshall’s offense is much better and the defense isn’t as good. Appalachian State has welcomed its best receiver (Chase Sutton) back after he sat out the 2020 season. So their offense is better this year as well. We should also bring up how Marshall’s QB Grant Wells is coming off the two best passing days of his career. Both defenses ranked in the Top 15 last year in yards/play allowed. Now they are both outside the Top 40. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-18-21 | Iowa State v. UNLV UNDER 52.5 | Top | 48-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER It’s been a very disappointing start for Iowa State, who opened the year ranked in the top ten. First they could barely get by Northern Iowa, a FCS school. But that 16-10 WIN pales in comparison to the embarrassment suffered last weekend when they lost against Iowa, 27-17, this time in front of ESPN’s College Gameday. The offense failing to top 17 points in either game is a real concern in Ames. Now the Cyclones are still ranked 14th in the country and that’s a lot better than where the UNLV program is at right now. The Rebels have yet to win in eight tries during the Marcus Arroyo regime and this season got off to a bad start with a 35-33 loss to Eastern Washington. Losing to a FCS school was probably even more embarrassing than what happened last week as the Rebels could only muster 10 points and 155 yards against Arizona State. This has all the makings of a low scoring affair Saturday night. Depending on the upper body injury to Doug Brumfield, whose status you should monitor, it could be Tate Martell making his first collegiate start for UNLV this week. Martell has already transferred out of Ohio State and Miami FL, so maybe it’s time to admit that the former HS Player of the Year simply isn’t that good? Whomever starts under center must face an ISU defense that has permitted an average of only 15.3 points and 288.1 yards the last seven games. Excluding non-offensive scores, the Cyclones have allowed just 22 second half points in those seven games. We don’t think their offense will score all that much here either. So the call is simple. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-18-21 | Auburn +5.5 v. Penn State | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Auburn There are just two matchups of Top 25 teams on Saturday’s docket. One of them is #1 Alabama taking on #11 Florida, a game where most will be picking the same side to win. Later on, there’s a far more intriguing matchup as #22 Auburn faces #10 Penn State. Auburn is 2-0 having put up 122 points, the most in the country through two weeks. They’ve only allowed 10. While this is a big step up after playing the likes of Akron and Alabama State, we are going with the Tigers plus the points. Penn State had the win over Wisconsin, but they only scored 16 points and were greatly aided by three Badgers’ turnovers. We had the Under last week when they hosted Ball State. Again, the Nittany Lions defense dominated. They allowed 13 points and 295 yards. It was an easy 44-13 win and yes, the Under did cash. It will not be easy against Auburn. With the exception of Ohio State, this could be the best offense Penn State sees all season. There are already 11 different Auburn receivers with a reception of 10 or more yards. The team’s two star running backs - Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter - have each gone over 100 yards in both games so far. But Auburn can also play a little defense. They’ve given up just 43 total rush yards so far. Do you have to consider the level of opposition? Absolutely. But you also have to consider the Tigers have won and covered seven straight games in the month of September. We’ll take the points. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL East Carolina is 0-2. They’ve opened the season with losses to Appalachian State and South Carolina. The Pirates were underdogs in both games and did not cover either. They were home dogs last week in a 20-17 loss to South Carolina. Before that, it was a nine-point spread in Boone. It’s a near identical spread this week as ECU visits Marshall. The problem for the Pirates in this game is two-fold. One, the Thundering Herd again look like they have a tremendous defense. Last year saw them lead the country in stopping the run and points allowed. You can’t get much better than that. They gave up 96 yards/game on the ground and allowed only 13.0 points/game. This year, for a new head coach, the number of points they’ve allowed in two games is 17. The Herd did allow a ton of rushing yards to Navy, however that is understandable. They were back to their old selves last week when the number of yards they allowed on the ground was just 71 on 27 carries. The other problem that East Carolina will have Saturday is that Marshall’s offense looks a lot better than it did in 2020. They’ve put up 93 points in two games. Grant Wells is completing over 70 percent of his passes. East Carolina is a team that has just five FBS wins since 2019. It’s Mike Houston’s third year in Greenville, but still his team is not adequate enough to contend with a proven bunch like Marshall. The loss to South Carolina was a heartbreaker as the Pirates blew a 14-0 lead and watched as a last second field goal sailed through the uprights for the Gamecocks. Marshall is 2-0 despite six turnovers. On the 50th anniversary of the “Young Thundering Herd” team, the current Thundering Herd will make the alumni proud. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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09-18-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MEMPHIS There are some real “funny” lines this Saturday and this is definitely one of them. Mississippi State struggled for three quarters against Louisiana Tech before escaping with a 35-34 win. Then they pulled out a surprise 24-10 over North Carolina State as two-point home underdogs, a game where the difference was clearly three Wolfpack turnovers. Well, three turnovers + an opening kick return for a touchdown. Don’t think the Bulldogs will be that lucky again when they play their first road game of 2021 against a Memphis team that has not lost at the Liberty Bowl since 2018. The Tigers are also 2-0 with wins over Nicholls State and Arkansas State. The second game was a real barn burner with both teams scoring 50 points and gaining 680 yards. But Memphis put up 55 and held on for the victory. The final margin of victory wasn’t enough to cover the spread, however you should be aware that the Tigers allowed two late touchdowns after leading by double digits most of the game. Memphis is 4-0 ATS as a home dog since 2017 including upsets of UCF and Houston last season. They lead the nation in total offense right now at 634.5 yards/game and QB Henigan, a true freshman, looks to be the real deal. The “Air Raid” will not be the most explosive offense on the field Saturday. Take the points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VA TECH Not sure we understand this line. Virginia Tech is off to a 2-0 start for Justin Fuente, which includes a 17-10 upset over then #10 North Carolina. The Hokies came into that game as 5.5 point underdogs, so it was a really impressive win. Their second SU win was much more comfortable as they defeated Middle Tennessee by a score of 35-14. But it was also a lot closer as far as the point spread was concerned (they were -20). Now they are dogs again, this time on the road, as they go to Morgantown for the first time since 2005. West Virginia has yet to beat an FBS team this year as they lost to Maryland 30-24 two weeks ago, getting outplayed in the process. The fact WVU won 66-0 last week means next to nothing as they played an FCS school. These schools haven’t met since 2017, but the Hokies hold a 15-5 ATS edge going back to 1987 and haven’t lost to the Mountaineers since 2003. When an unranked team is favored by three points or less over a Top 15 opponent, go ahead and fade the chalk as they are just 8-18-2 ATS in that situation the past 20 years. West Virginia running back Leddie Brown is averaging just 3.3 yards/carry so far and will struggle to find space against Fuente’s defense. Virginia Tech has lost only once with Braxton Burmeister, now a junior, as the starting QB. We will gladly take the points and expect an outright win. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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09-17-21 | Central Florida v. Louisville OVER 66.5 | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This is not a great spot for the Louisville Cardinals. It is their third game in 12 days and they will be facing a UCF offense that is averaging 49.5 points and 622 yards per game. Both those numbers are second best in the country. Louisville has already allowed 43 points in a loss to Ole Miss this year. They only gave up three points last week, but that was against a FCS team, Eastern Kentucky. Given the schedule and the offense the Cardinals will face, they are very likely to give up a ton of points Friday night. Yes, UCF also played a FCS school last week. But they also put up almost 600 yards in the opener against Boise State. They put up 671 against Bethune-Cookman last week. This is a program that’s impressed us for years. They also apparently impressed the Big 12 Conference because that’s where the Golden Knights are headed, perhaps as early as 2023. QB Dillon Gabriel is 11th in the country in passing yards. Coach Gus Malzahn was a winner at Auburn and should get off to a 3-0 start in his first season here. Louisville gave up 569 yards to an Ole Miss offense that is pretty similar to what UCF runs. Rather than lay the points on the road, we’re more confident in this game going Over.. The Knights are 7-0 Over their previous seven September games. Louisville is 6-0 Over after its last six straight up victories. The Cardinals are certainly capable of scoring 30 or more points this week. They’ve scored 56 in the last six quarters. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOUISIANA Ohio U looks to be in major trouble in Tim Albin’s first year at the helm. The Bobcats will take an 0-2 record to Lafayette, Louisiana as they take on the 1-1 Ragin Cajuns Thursday night at Cajun Field. Louisiana began the year ranked #23, but lost to Texas 38-18 in the opening game. That score has since gotten a bit more embarrassing with the Longhorns getting blown out at Arkansas last week. But that wasn’t the Ragin Cajuns’ fault. Now it also doesn’t look good that they could only beat Nicholls State by a field goal last week. But that final score was misleading in the sense that the Ragin Cajuns led by 17 with just over five minutes to go. This is a team that has won 22 of its previous 27 games. They are in a much better place now than Ohio. New coach Albin saw his team lose the opener at home to Syracuse by a score of 29-9. Then the Bobcats were stuffed on a two-point conversion attempt at the end of the game last week against Duquesne. That’s a home loss to a FCS foe where they were 28.5 point favorites. Not only that, the Bobcats were outgained and trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. Albin took over on somewhat short notice when Frank Solich surprisingly announced his retirement over the summer. Ohio is usually one of the better MAC teams but is clearly prepared to take a step back this year. Louisiana wins big here. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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09-11-21 | Stanford +17.5 v. USC | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD Stanford’s first game didn’t go so well. The Cardinal lost 24-7 at Kansas State as three-point underdogs. The offense didn’t do much and the defense was consistently put in poor positions. The loss leaves David Shaw just 8-11 straight up and 6-13 against the spread in his last 19 games. The Cardinal are just 3-8 SU/ATS as underdogs during that time. But they hope for better results this week when they open the Pac 12 schedule “after dark” against USC. The Trojans were 30-7 winners over San Jose State in Week 1. While the offense had some red zone breakdowns, the defense helped them out by forcing some early turnovers. This is a lot of points to lay in a conference game, especially one so early in the season. In their last 25 games as a double digit favorite, Southern Cal is 11-13-1 against the spread and five of the victories on the field have been by five points or less. It’s not hard to see them “playing down” to the level of competition following a 23-point victory last week. Total yardage with San Jose State was pretty even. Stanford knows the USC coaching staff well. Shaw is making a QB change to Tanner McKee, who was better after coming on in relief of Jack West against Kansas State. The teams didn’t play last year but Stanford has covered five of the last seven matchups. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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09-11-21 | Texas -7 v. Arkansas | Top | 21-40 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Arkansas has done a good job at covering the spread when they are the underdog. They are 10-3 against the spread the last 13 times they’ve gotten points from the oddsmakers. Three different times last year, the Razorbacks went into a game as the dog and walked away with an outright win. But this is Texas they are facing in Week 2. The Longhorns won by 20 last week (38-18) over a Louisiana team that was ranked #23. They never trailed. Now the ‘Horns are up to #15 themselves. Don’t think for a second they won’t be looking to make a statement here against their old SWC - and future SEC rival. Arkansas was not nearly as impressive in Week 1 as they trailed Rice at halftime before going on a 21-0 run in the fourth quarter. Each of those three fourth quarter touchdowns were off Rice turnovers. Texas is not going to be in such a giving mood. KJ Jefferson and the Hogs' passing game really struggled last week. They gained only 128 yards through the air. Arkansas isn’t going to be able to run the ball here like they did in the first game. The Texas’ defense gave up just 76 yards rushing to Louisiana - on 29 carries. Their offense also looked good. RB Robinson is one of the very best in the country. The Razorbacks will struggle to stop him and won’t be forcing the same number of turnovers they did vs. Rice. Texas has covered five straight on the non-conference slate and is also 4-1 ATS their last five times as a road favorite. Arkansas is 0-8 ATS the previous eight times they have been off a win of more than 20 points. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-11-21 | Ball State v. Penn State UNDER 58 | Top | 13-44 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER Penn State may not see a better defense all season than the one they faced last week. The fact the Nittany Lions went to Wisconsin and won 16-10 bodes really well for James Franklin and this season. But PSU did only gain 11 first downs for the game and needed a +3 turnover margin to win in Madison. They had the ball for just over 17 minutes. They will do better offensively this week against Ball State, who was a 31-21 winner last week over Western Illinois, but count on this being another low-scoring affair for the Nittany Lions. Not just because of their question marks on offense, but they also happen to have a pretty great defense in Happy Valley these days. Ball State just isn’t going to do much scoring Saturday in Beaver Stadium. The Cardinals’ only hope in this game is that Penn State is looking ahead to Auburn next week. Being in the middle of a Wisconsin-Auburn sandwich does somewhat work to BSU’s favor. It’s an experienced team out of Muncie, one that won the MAC Championship Game last December. We actually believe they can hang around … for a while. If we’re right about that, it probably means it’s a low scoring game. The Under is 6-0 in Ball State’s previous six games vs. Big Ten competition. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-11-21 | Wyoming -7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 50-43 | Push | 0 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WYOMING Don’t overreact too much to Northern Illinois’ upset win at Georgia Tech last week. Though the Huskies came out ahead by a point in a contest where they were 19-point underdogs, they gained fewer yards than they gave up and needed a late touchdown plus two-point conversion to seal the upset. This is a team that didn’t win a single game in 2020 (0-6 SU). They were also fortunate that Georgia Tech lost its starting quarterback in the second quarter. Backup Jordan Yates led three touchdown drives against the NIU defense. So look for Wyoming to move the ball more effectively than they did last week vs. Montana State when they also needed a last-minute touchdown to get the victory. Northern Illinois did give up 286 yards rushing to Georgia Tech last week. Wyoming has an excellent running back in Xazavian Valladay, who figure to get more carries this week. We think it is worth noting that while Northern Illinois was a 19-point underdog last week, Wyoming was a 19-point favorite. This game is in DeKalb, but the line is too short in our estimation. The road team has covered the last six times it has been off an ATS loss. Should be a double digit win for the Cowboys on Saturday. Lay it! Play on WYOMING AAA |
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09-11-21 | Illinois v. Virginia OVER 55 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Illinois was so kind to us in their first game when they upset Nebraska 30-22 as a 6.5-point underdog. We did not take them a second time when they faced UTSA last week. The Illini did score 30 points again. But this time the defense allowed 37. They gave up almost 500 yards at home. The defense figures to be tested again this week as it goes to Charlottesville to take on a Virginia team that’s won nine straight non-conference home games. The Cavaliers also just so happened to score 43 points in their first game. While it was against William & Mary, the fact the Hoos gained well over 500 yards is worth something. Nine different receivers caught a pass. "There's appearing to be the makings of a pretty diverse offense with a lot of different opportunities, with room to grow on the execution," UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall said. On the flip side, it’s very impressive to see Illinois score 60 points in two games with a backup quarterback. Sitkowski will start Saturday, but we could see Brandon Peters for the first time since the opening game. The Over is 10-4 in Illinois’ last 14 games after an ATS loss. Not only is the Over 10-2 in Virginia’s last 12 home games, it is 27-11-1 the last 38 times they’ve been favored. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-10-21 | UTEP +26 v. Boise State | Top | 13-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTEP UTEP is already 2-0 on the young season. Now those wins were against New Mexico State and Bethune Cookman, the worst FBS team and a FCS team. But at last the Miners have some confidence as they travel to the blue turf in Boise, ID Friday night. Boise State’s season began with a painful 36-31 loss at UCF last Thursday. It was a game the Broncos led much of the way, including 21-0 early in the second quarter. They got an early 100-yard pick-six to start the scoring and it wasn’t until late in the third quarter that they fell behind. But the Broncos were outgained significantly, 573-283, and if you take away the pick-six then really the game wouldn’t have been that competitive. UTEP isn’t Central Florida, but should be able to move the ball enough to stay within the huge number tonight. This is easily Dana Dimel’s best team in his four year in El Paso and his most experienced. The Miners had just five wins his first three years, three of those coming last season. Now they are off to a 2-0 start and building confidence. Boise State has a new coach in Andy Avalos while coming off their worst offensive season in 25 years. Blowing a three touchdown lead on the road last week did not do wonders for the Broncos’ confidence. They gained just 59 total yards in the second half. UTEP has good wide receivers and should be able to attack a suspect secondary. We are taking the points in this matchup. Play on UTEP AAA |
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09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss OVER 75 | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Should be a ton of points in this one. Ole Miss led the SEC in rushing last season. They also have one of the top QBs in the nation, Matt Corral. We know they won’t have Lane Kiffin (COVID-19), but the personnel is strong enough to overcome the absence of the coach. Now the Rebels defense is a different story. They gave up the most yards, not just in the SEC but in the entire country! Louisville’s offense should revert back to 2019 when QB Cunningham had 22 touchdowns and just five interceptions. This is his third year as the starter. Cunningham will have a big game here, if only because he HAS to. Corral led FBS in total yards per game last year. Mississippi games were insanely high scoring. They went over 40 points five times in 2020. But they also gave up more than 40 five different times. This game certainly has the potential to see both teams go for 40-plus. Five teams gained 500 yards against the Rebels last year. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame -7 v. Florida State | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ND Notre Dame beat Florida State last season 42-26. The Fighting Irish failed to cover though as they were massive 21-point favorites in South Bend. Now they are set to invade Tallahassee for the first time since 2014. We know the Irish have their doubters heading into the season and people want to believe in FSU. But ND has gone 33-5 straight up the past three seasons. Florida State is just 14-20. The gap between the two storied programs isn’t as tight as these odds seem to indicate. Keep in mind that it’s been an absolutely wretched weekend so far for the ACC with Clemson and North Carolina both losing and Miami getting crushed by Bama. Florida State isn’t one of the better ACC teams and hasn’t been in awhile. They’ve got major question marks on both sides of the ball. The defense allowed almost 200 yards rushing per game in 2020. On offense, no starting QB has been announced. FSU beat only two FBS teams last year. Notre Dame was in the CFP. Jack Coan, who transferred over from Wisconsin to be the Fighting Irish’s new QB, is 12-6 SU in his collegiate career as a starter. Notre Dame is by far the more talented of these two teams. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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09-04-21 | LSU -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU UCLA has a game under its belt. Chip Kelly probably couldn’t have asked for it to go any better. His Bruins jumped out to a 24-3 lead after the first quarter and never looked back. It ended up 44-10 when all was said and done. The key was a Hawaii implosion. The Warriors unsuccessfully went for it on fourth down on their very first possession. That led to a quick UCLA field goal. Later in the quarter was a fumble deep in Hawaii’s own territory. The Bruins immediately cashed that one in for a TD. In the fourth quarter, with the game already out of reach, the Bruins recovered a blocked punt in the end zone. Don’t expect #16 LSU to be as giving. After winning a National Championship in 2019, the Tigers fell back down to Earth with a 5-5 record last season. Like UCLA, LSU should bounce back from a disappointing season. The defensive line has far more depth. It took almost the whole year, but in the third to last game of last year, Ed Orgeron finally found his QB. It’s Max Johnson, now a sophomore, who led the Tigers to wins in the final two games. The LSU offense put up 37 and 53 points in those two wins. Lost in the final score of last week is that UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed just half of his passes for 130 yards. That won’t come close to cutting it here. LSU was able to escape Irma and practiced in Houston during the week. They’ll be on the West Coast to practice by Friday. Play on LSU AAA |
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09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson OVER 51 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 15 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on OVER The marquee game on Saturday pits #5 Georgia against #3 Clemson. This game takes place in Charlotte where Clemson has won six straight times, five of those being for the ACC Championship. So they’ve got a bit of a “home field” advantage, though we’re sure they’d prefer this game to take place in Death Valley. You also might think that the Tigers wish they still had Trevor Lawrence at QB. But his replacement D.J. Uiagalelei threw for 439 yards last year against Notre Dame,a game Clemson lost but still put up 40 points. So don’t think for a second that this Clemson offense is going to struggle much to score points with Lawrence off to the NFL. JT Daniels is the Georgia QB and threw for 10 touchdowns over the final four games of last year. The Dawgs’ offensive backfield is even more talented when accounting for the loaded running back position. Both programs may be known for defense, but the coaches know it’s going to take plenty of points to win this one. Asking both offenses to top 25 points doesn’t seem like asking for too much? Georgia went Over in six of its last seven regular season games. There was only one game last year where they failed to hit 24. Clemson never scored fewer than 28 in any game during 2020. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-04-21 | Marshall v. Navy UNDER 48 | Top | 49-7 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring contest. Navy scored only 13 points in the final three games of 2020. They go up against a Marshall defense that not only had an entire offseason to prepare for the triple option, but also led the country in stopping the run last year. The Thundering Herd allowed just 96 yards/game on the ground in what was largely a successful campaign. They were also #1 in the country in scoring defense. But the Thundering Herd finished 7-3 (started 7-0) due in large part to their own offensive ineptitude. They were shut out by Rice, scored only 13 in the C-USA Championship vs. UAB and then only 10 in a bowl loss to Buffalo. This is an offense that put up 20 points or less in half of its games. All the big point totals came against really weak opponents. Navy’s defense has all of its starters from last year back and will be stout. The last three games of 2020 saw them hold every opponent to less than 300 total yards, a first for the program going back to 1997. But back to the Navy offense for a second. They are off their least productive year on the ground in over a quarter century. Marshall’s D allowed more than 17 points in just one game last year! Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-04-21 | Fresno State v. Oregon -20 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OREGON Oregon will have to be careful here as they’ve got a date with Ohio State next week. Fresno State played a game last week. They crushed UConn 45-0. But you don’t need us to tell you that Oregon is a big step up from a team that didn’t even play competitive football in 2020. The Ducks are ranked #11 in the country. They’ve won the Pac 12 each of the last two seasons. Fresno State has not faced a ranked opponent since the 2018 season. The Bulldogs will have plenty of difficulty stopping the run this week as Oregon’s RB duo of Verdell and Dye have 4,363 career yards rushing between them. That’s the most returning yards of any backfield in the country. The offensive line that they’ll be running behind is experienced. Oregon has won its last 12 games at Autzen Stadium and 26 home games in a row when facing a non-conference foe. Don’t look past the fact that Fresno State’s QB had to leave last week’s game with cramping in the third quarter. Oregon may have the best edge rusher in the nation in Kayvon Thibodeaux. Not even having to lay three touchdowns at Autzen seems like a steal to us. The Ducks are going to be very good this season and haven’t lost to Fresno State since 1982. Play on OREGON AAA |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State v. Northwestern -155 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -155 | 79 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on N'western ML The underdog has won this Big 10 matchup four of the last five years, and five of the last seven. Last November it was Michigan State pulling a 29-20 upset in East Lansing - as a 13.5 point underdog - one of only two wins Sparty had all last season. Northwestern entered that game 5-0 and was ranked #8 in the country at the time. It was a wild game that saw MSU first jump out to a 17-0 lead, only to then fall behind 20-17. Things got real wild late as two Northwestern turnovers led to Michigan State field goals. The Spartans formally put the game away with a fumble return for a TD on the final play. We think Northwestern, despite pretty significant roster turnover, will avenge one of its two defeats from a year ago. We don’t want to lay the points though. Rather, take the Wildcats on the money line Friday night in Evanston. They won all four games at Ryan Field last season. Michigan State is 2-5 straight up in its last seven road games. Mel Tucker has a lot of question marks on both sides of the ball entering his second season as the head coach. Pat Fitzgerald always has a good defense at Northwestern. With MSU having questions at quarterback, the Wildcats won’t give up many points and they’ll win. Play NORTHWESTERN (money line) AAA |
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09-03-21 | Old Dominion v. Wake Forest UNDER 64 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 77 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Old Dominion took the 2020 season off so this is our first look at the program since November 30th, 2019 when they lost to Charlotte 38-22. The Monarchs have not won a College Football game since August 31st of 2019 against Norfolk State. Their last win over an FBS opponent was on November 10, 2018 over North Texas. The last time ODU beat a FBS team by more than three points was September 22, 2018 when they beat a Virginia Tech team that was ranked 13th in the country at the time! So we shouldn’t expect much from them in the 2021 season opener vs. Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons struggled defensively in 2020, but we aren’t expecting much from the Monarchs’ offense in this first game. Another key is offseason injuries with the Wake Forest offense. Now they will still put up points, led by QB Hartman. Just not enough to get this one Over the total. We just don’t expect ODU to score much. Wake would have to exceed 45 points for the Over to even have a chance here. In the first game of the season, we’re not seeing them score that many. Only two of the top nine receivers from the 2019 team are back. Another team that took 2020 off - UConn - was blanked in its 2021 opener last weekend. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State -13.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE Ohio State owns the Big Ten in much the same way Clemson owns the Atlantic Coast Conference. Over the last nine seasons, the Buckeyes have won 74 of 79 conference games. They are an obvious favorite to win the league again in 2021. They will be breaking in a new quarterback, CJ Stroud, who replaces Justin Fields. We don’t think that’s going to be a problem. Stroud has Ryan Day calling the plays and the best set of receivers in the country to throw to. You’ve got Master Teague and TreVeyon Henderson at running back. The Buckeyes averaged over 500 yards and 40 points per game last season. They’ll probably do it again this year. Making life even scarier for the rest of the Big 10 is the likely improvement of the Buckeyes' defense from last year. They weren’t particularly good against the pass, but the secondary now has more experience. Minnesota only has the seventh best odds of winning the conference and it honestly feels as if the gap between 1 and 2 is larger than between 2 and 7. The Golden Gophers were just 3-4 SU last year and really have no hope of winning this game. The last time they beat Ohio State was in the year 2000 and that’s the only win in the series since 1981. Ohio State has not lost a season opener this century and have covered six of the last eight times they’ve been road favorites. Minnesota is not Alabama, the team the Buckeyes lost to in the CFP Championship Game. They are a Big 10 opponent and that means you should expect a big OSU win. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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09-02-21 | South Florida +19 v. NC State | Top | 0-45 | Loss | -118 | 53 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USF South Florida comes into Thursday’s opener against North Carolina State as a big underdog. But we think the Bulls are getting far too many points here. NC State did go 8-4 last year. But they were 4-8 the year before that. They were 8-4 in 2020 despite scoring only 13 more points than they allowed. The Wolfpack were also underdogs in over half of last year’s games. They were favored by double digits only twice and covered just one. We know there’s a decent amount of returning starters for Dave Doeren. However, this is simply not a team we’re interested in laying a lot of points with, especially in the first game. Jeff Scott may not have had a great first year at USF, going just 1-8, but his Bulls covered five times. Two of the losses were within a field goal. The defense will be better this year (how could it not?) and nine transfers were added via the portal. Do we think the Bulls can win this game? Absolutely not. But NC State seems overvalued. Grab the points. Play on SOUTH FLORIDA AAA |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 66 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS Betting this number early feels good, but we still feel very confident in Illinois plus the points in the Big 10 opener. Brett Bielema inherited a team that really didn’t do much under Lovie Smith. The Fighting Illini project to be the last place team in the Big 10 West this year, but they should be more competitive under Bielema. They beat Nebraska last season 41-23 as 17-point underdogs. Now the Cornhuskers are facing potential NCAA sanctions before the 2021 season even starts. The threat of sanctions puts already embattled head coach Scott Frost even more squarely on the hot seat. The ‘Huskers were only 3-5 a year ago. Just one win was by more than seven points. The program is 5-11 ATS as a favorite under Frost. Overall they’ve won only 12 of 32 games straight up. So to lay points with them on the conference road, in the first game of the season, seems foolish. QB Martinez has been far too inconsistent throughout his career. The defense gave up 29.4 points/game in 2020. Illinois has 18 starters back and you should look for the defensive front seven to be much improved. Gotta grab the points in this one. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +8 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -105 | 198 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE We thought the Alabama-Notre Dame spread was too high and got a “back door” cover there. Similarly, we think this spread is too high. Ohio State played a remarkable game vs. Clemson, jumping all over the Tigers in the first half and beating them 49-28. This is a team that has not lost and has scored 38 or more in every game but one. Obviously, Covid is a concern for the Buckeyes going into this CFP Championship Game as is the health of QB Fields. But we still seem them sticking with the Crimson Tide. Don’t forget Nick Saban’s defense gave up 46 points in the SEC Championship Game. Buckeyes RB Trey Sermon is the key as he’s gone for more than 500 yards in the last two games. Back in 2014, a OSU team that wasn’t given much of a chance beat Bama 42-35 in the semifinal. The Buckeyes are as talented as any team in the country and not an underdog very often. The Clemson line never should have been that big. This one should be under a touchdown. OSU is 19-7 ATS L26 as a dog including 5-2 in the bowls. Alabama is just 1-4 ATS its last five bowl games. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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01-02-21 | North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS A&M The Orange Bowl pits 8-3 North Carolina against 8-1 Texas A&M. The 5th ranked Aggies were the 1st team “left out” of the College Football Playoff and we believe they will take their frustrations out on a Tar Heels team that may very well be “just happy to be here.” It’s been awhile since UNC was in a major bowl game like this. Don’t worry about laying the number as A&M is 7-1 - both straight up and against the spread - as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite the last three seasons. Over the same time period, North Carolina is 1-10 SU when an underdog in that same point range. The Tar Heels defense can be shaky as it allowed 44 or more points three times in the regular season. They did not face Clemson, but did face Notre Dame and in that game the offense was held to a season-low 17 points. Other than that game, the schedule wasn’t very tough. Texas A&M had to run the SEC gauntlet and their only loss was to Alabama. They are on a six-game win streak with all six wins coming by at least 11 points. The Aggies have a huge edge defensively in this matchup as they are allowing just 21.1 points/game and that number gets a lot lower when you factor out Alabama and Florida. Six times they held their opponents under 21 points. Lay it. Play on TEXAS A&M AAA |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State UNDER 58.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 48 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Oregon has to be one of the “oddest” Conference Champions in College Football history. The Ducks did not even qualify for the Pac 12 Championship Game, but took Washington’s spot once the Huskies could not play. Then they went out and upset USC 31-24. Their reward is a date with the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game, that being Iowa State, in the Fiesta Bowl. This should be one of the better bowl games and we don’t think it will be as high scoring as the oddsmakers think. Over their last eight games, ISU allowed 24 points or fewer six times. The Cyclones have a strong history of going Under in bowl games. Nine of their last 10 bowls have gone Under including six in a row. The three under current coach Matt Campbell have stayed Under by a total of 40 points. We’ll side with the trends. Speaking of trends, Iowa State is 20-5-1 Under its last 26 games vs. teams with winning records. The Under is also 36-14-2 the last 52 times the ‘Clones have gone off as the betting favorite. Despite the upset win over USC, Oregon QB Tyler Shough did not look particularly good in that game. But the Ducks are coming off two straight strong defensive efforts where they held Cal and USC below 360 total yards each. Play on UNDER AAA |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State v. Clemson OVER 66.5 | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER So we like BOTH CFP semifinals to go Over the total this year. Ohio State did not exactly face a slew of great offenses in the Big 10 this year. Well, they did face Indiana and gave up 35 points. Clemson is so much better than any previous Buckeyes opponent. Back at full strength, the Tigers have rolled to victories by 35, 35 and 24 points since Trevor Lawrence returned. The fewest points scored in any game by Clemson this season was 34. We project them to eclipse that number here as they are averaging 44.9 and an even higher number when Lawrence plays. But Ohio State also is averaging more than 40 points/game (42.5) and we think they’ll have more offensive success than you might think. The Buckeyes only hope here is to put a bunch of points on the board. The good news is that they are more than capable. They average 529 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play. They scored 38 points or more in every game but the Big 10 Championship when they were facing a stingy Northwestern defense. This will be a much higher scoring game compared to when these teams faced off in last year’s CFP semifinals as this time it’s indoors (Superdome). Play on OVER AAA |
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01-01-21 | Notre Dame +20 v. Alabama | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 94 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME The Rose Bowl is in Arlington, TX this year and Alabama is a monster favorite over Notre Dame in the first of the two CFP semifinals. While we do expect the Crimson Tide to win this game, look for the Fighting Irish to score enough to cover the spread. Bama just gave up 46 points (to Florida) in the SEC Championship Game. While Notre Dame got held to 10 points in the ACC Championship Game, they had scored at least 31 in six straight and eight of nine before that. This is a truly massive spread and while ND probably isn’t in the same league as Alabama, we find it hard to believe they should be this large of an underdog against ANYONE. Taking on Clemson at a neutral site, they were only 11-point dogs. Yes, they were blown out, but that’s led to a real overadjustment from the oddsmakers. The Irish are 6-3 ATS the last nine times they’ve been a double digit dog (goes way back, to 2008). For all the talk of Nick Saban in big games, Bama is only 3-6 ATS its L9 CFP games and 0-3 ATS the last three. This is the third highest spread in bowl HISTORY (not just the CFP). We simply HAVE to take the points. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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01-01-21 | Notre Dame v. Alabama OVER 65.5 | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Not only do we like the points in the Rose Bowl, we expect there will be plenty of points scored. We already detailed why we think Notre Dame will cover this game. Part of the rationale was that they’ll score plenty of points. Well, there’s no sugarcoating the fact Alabama will as well. This Tide offense may be the best in school history. They are averaging almost 50 points/game and have gone over 50 three straight games. The SEC Championship Game vs. Florida was a 52-46 final. The two times Notre Dame played Clemson, they gave up 34 and 40 points. They are likely to give up at least 41 here as Bama has hit that number in each of its last 10 tries. That means Notre Dame would have to score around 24 to both cover and send this one Over. Considering Alabama didn’t face that many good offenses this year, that should happen for the Irish. Florida was by far the best offensive team the Crimson Tide faced all year and look how many points they gave up in that one. The Over is now 22-8-2 in Alabama’s past 32 neutral site games. The Over is also 4-1 the last five times ND has been off a loss by 20 or more. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-31-20 | Mississippi State v. Tulsa -2.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -110 | 193 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULSA This year’s Armed Forces Bowl pits 3-7 Mississippi State against 6-2 Tulsa. In any other year, Miss St would NOT have gotten a bowl invite. So we’ll relish the opportunity to play against Mike Leach’s Bulldogs in this one. While they did end the regular season with a somewhat impressive 52-31 win against Missouri (only win over a bowl team), prior to that MSU had lost three in a row and seven of its last eight. The only win in those eight games came against Vanderbilt. Tulsa is a feisty 6-2 and ranked #24 in the country. They have an excellent defense that shut down the likes of UCF, SMU and Oklahoma State. Even in the AAC Championship Game where they lost 27-24 to undefeated Cincinnati, the Golden Hurricane defense did an excellent job. That game was decided on a field goal as time expired. Tulsa’s only other loss was at Oklahoma State and they led there in the second half. This is a really strong team, much better than MSU on both sides of the football. It is absolutely remarkable that we are able to get them laying so few points to a team as bad as Mississippi State. The only reason this line is so low is because MSU is an SEC team. But Tulsa isn’t facing an SEC All-Star team here, or even a good SEC team. Miss State’s offense is terrible, ranking outside the top 100 in most key categories. They were held to 14 points or less in five of their nine games. They cannot run the ball at all. They average only 36 yards/game rushing, which is LAST in the country. The weather isn’t expected to be nice in Fort Worth, TX on New Year’s Eve and that favors Tulsa. A truly incredible matchup for the Golden Hurricane, who can make a national statement to end 2020. Play on TULSA AAA |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin -8.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WISCONSIN So Wisconsin had a really underwhelming regular season. The Badgers were supposed to waltz their way to the Big 10 Championship and face Ohio State. Instead, they lost three games. In each of those three losses, which came in a row, they were held to 7 points or less. That was downright shocking. So now the Badgers end up facing a 4-4 Wake Forest team in the Mayo Bowl. As they were for every regular season contest, Wisconsin is favored here. The underdog role suits Wake Forest well as they went 3-0 ATS when taking points in the regular season. But there is a massive gap between these two teams on the defensive side of the ball. Wisconsin allows 15.7 points/game. WF allows more than double that (31.6) and a frightening 40.8 points/game when they play outside of Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons have played just one game since November 14th and it was a 24-point loss to Louisville. They’ve allowed 104 points their last two games. Wisconsin has won five of its last six bowl games, the only loss coming by a single point to Oregon in last year’s Rose Bowl. We still believe in this team and think they’ll roll here as the offense gets on track against a bad defensive team. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +1.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI For the first time this bowl season, we’ve got a matchup of ranked teams! #21 Oklahoma State takes on #18 Miami in this year’s Cheez-It Bowl, which goes down Tuesday evening in Orlando, FL. Though the programs can both claim to have had Jimmy Johnson as a head coach, they’ve met only one time and that was in 1991. This line is trending towards ‘pick ‘em’ territory after OSU opened as a three-point favorite. We agree with this move as Miami will be the more motivated side coming off the butt-kicking they took at the hands of North Carolina in the last game. The Hurricanes only other loss this year was to Clemson. Oklahoma State has a good defense, but it’s third down numbers probably won’t translate to the bowl game facing talented Miami QB D’Eriq King, who has accounted for more than 3000 total yards and 26 touchdowns. OSU’s best offensive player, RB Chuba Hubbard, has opted out of this game. So that’s a break for the Miami defense. Getting this game “up the road” in Orlando is another advantage. The most motivating factor of them all is that Miami will be looking to reverse some “ugly” recent bowl history (1-9 L10) including last year’s unforgivable 14-0 loss to Louisiana Tech. Now they have King and we expect them to play well. Oklahoma State had failed to cover five in a row before beating Baylor in their last game. Play on MIAMI FL AAA |
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12-26-20 | Liberty v. Coastal Carolina -7 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COASTAL CAROLINA We were happy to jump on the Coastal Carolina bandwagon early this year. All the Chanticleers have done is go 11-0 straight up and 8-2-1 against the spread. They’ll try and finish off a perfect season Saturday as they take on fellow “Cinderella story” Liberty, who is 8-1 SU and ATS, in the Cure Bowl in Orlando. With the two teams a combined 16-3-1 ATS, there’s a lot to like here. But no one disputes Coastal Carolina is the better team. These teams were actually supposed to play in Conway, SC back on December 5th, but COVID prevented that and instead gave us one of the best games of the year, Coastal Carolina’s 22-17 win over BYU. Liberty hasn’t played since November 27th. Coastal Carolina is 5-0 ATS against teams with winning records this year. Liberty did beat Virginia Tech, but the Hokies weren’t that good and the rest of the Flames’ schedule was WEAK. The only bowl team they defeated was Western Kentucky, who was 2-6 at one point. Coastal Carolina is stronger on both sides of the ball. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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12-25-20 | Marshall +4.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL Marshall and Buffalo were thinking about Conference Championships last Friday. But after both lost their respective title games (as favorites), they’ll match up on Christmas Day in the Camellia Bowl (played in Montgomery, AL). Really this is all about who responds better to last week’s loss. Marshall is coming off two straight losses after starting their season 7-0. Buffalo was a perfect 5-0 before losing to Ball State exactly one week ago. Marshall’s offense is obviously a “work in progress” and cannot get into a scenario where they need to “trade points” with Buffalo. But fortunately they have a defense that came into the C-USA Champ Game allowing just 88.9 yards/game. Buffalo has RB Jaret Patterson, but he was limited in the MAC Championship by a knee injury and only ran for 47 yards on 18 carries. The Bulls offense managed only one score in the second half of the MAC Championship and it was on a long run (not by Patterson). It’s also tough when your defense gives up 35 points in half like Buffalo’s did. Marshall’s defense has not allowed more than 22 points in any game all season. We like them as the underdog, a role they were in just once during the regular season -- when they upset Appalachian State. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii +11.5 v. Houston | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HAWAII This game may be called the “New Mexico Bowl,” but it’s actually taking place in Frisco, TX due to COVID restrictions. Houston isn’t complaining as the game is even closer to home, a welcome reprieve after the Cougars had EIGHT cancellations/postponements during the regular season. But we’re not sold that they should be this big of a favorite. They’ve played just one time since November 14th and that ended up being a 30-27 LOSS to Memphis. Not coincidentally, we played against UH there as well. They were 6.5-point road favorites for that one. Hawaii was just 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in the regular season. But if you take out games where they were favored (0-3 ATS), then they begin to look like a more attractive bet here. Led by QB Chevan Cordeiro (2450 total yards, 18 total touchdowns), the Warriors should score a reasonable number of points in this game. The only other time this season they were catching double digits was vs. Boise State. Houston is missing two of its best defensive players as they opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Same with their leading receiver. Houston has lost three straight bowls. Their head coach Dana Holgorsen is 2-5 straight up in bowl games. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Memphis OVER 50 | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER We look to make it three straight Overs to open the bowl season. While only the two bowls we’ve played (first two) have gone Over thus far, even last night’s UFC-BYU game featured plenty of scoring (72 total points). The only reason that one didn’t go Over is that it had the highest O/U of any bowl this season. There’s just not much incentive for these teams to play solid defense this time of year. Florida Atlantic should be the latest example. While the Owls only gave up 16.5 points/game in the regular season, it was shredded in the finale for 45 by a terrible Southern Miss squad. Memphis, who is certainly capable of putting up a big number, should do so here in the Montgomery Bowl. They averaged 450 yards/game in the regular season and scored 40 or more points three different times. Interestingly, FAU is 4-0 all-time in bowls while Memphis has lost five straight bowl games. The Tigers definitely should be motivated to come out and put up a lot of points. FAU will score enough too. The Over is 14-5 in Memphis’ L19 non-conf games Play on OVER AAA |
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12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada OVER 56.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER There was no shortage of scoring in the first bowl game and we expect the same thing in bowl game #2. Our participants in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl are Tulane and Nevada. Tulane was 6-5 in the regular season, covering the spread in six of the last seven games. The lone non-cover was against Tulsa, whom they led 14-0 in the fourth quarter while getting +4.5 from the oddsmakers. The Green Wave were not only 0-2 in overtime games this year, there were also two early season games where they led by 17 or more points and still lost! But the bottom line is they still averaged more than 35 points and that Tulsa loss is the only game since September where they didn’t hit 31. Now onto Nevada, who was once 5-0, but ended up 6-2. The Wolfpack scored 34 or more in half their games. They had 20 at halftime vs. SJSU, but were shockingly shutout after that. If not for that second half blanking, they would have averaged more than 30 points/game this season. Nevada has a good QB in Carson Strong and he definitely catches a break here as the Tulane defense will be without two All-Conference selections. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State OVER 65 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER With North Texas involved, it’s very difficult to imagine the Myrtle Beach Bowl NOT being high-scoring. The Mean Green give up over 500 yards and 41 points per game. Six of their nine regular season games went Over the total. It’s a tough bowl assignment here as they’re matched up against an Appalachian State team whose three losses came to teams (Louisiana, Coastal Carolina, Marshall) that are a combined 27-3 SU. The Mountaineers very much deserve to be the biggest favorite in all the bowls, but because they have the worst ATS record (2-9) of all the bowl teams, we can’t justify laying this number. Of course, North Texas hasn’t been very good at the betting window either (0-3 ATS L3), but what they are good at is offense. The Mean Green had the best passing attack in Conference USA and averaged over 35 points and 500 yards per game. But back to the defense, NT has given up a total of 140 points in its last three bowl appearances. Appalachian State will run for a lot of yards in this game, which will easily go Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-19-20 | Tulsa v. Cincinnati OVER 45 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 55 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The American Athletic Conference Championship Game features two defenses that are giving up less than 20 points per game. However, we think you’re going to see plenty of points come Saturday night. Cincinnati has really gotten a “raw deal” from the playoff committee as the Bearcats should definitely be ranked higher than 9th considering they are 8-0. They average 40 points/game and will be looking to make a “statement” in front of a national TV audience Saturday night. Over the last five games, Cincy has scored 36, 55, 38, 49 and 42 points. An interesting thing with Tulsa is that they avoided a lot of the top offenses in the AAC. The only loss for the Golden Hurricane was to Oklahoma State, but that was not the Cowboys at full strength (they were using a backup QB). This is a really low total and we expect Cincinnati to score at least 30 in this game. These teams were supposed to play last week, but the Bearcats had to cancel due to COVID. Had that game been played, there would be a sense of familiarity. But it wasn’t played and thus that potential edge for the defenses is not there.Tulsa is going to score enough to make sure this one goes Over as they scored at least 28 against everyone besides Oklahoma State and Navy, their first and most recent games. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-19-20 | Northwestern v. Ohio State OVER 56.5 | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Despite playing only five games, Ohio State is in the Big 10 Championship Game. We have no problem with the conference changing the rules “on the fly” as the Buckeyes are clearly the Big 10’s best team. Not surprisingly, they are huge favorites to beat 6-1 Northwestern. It will be the 14th time OSU has been favored by 20 or more under Ryan Day and they’ve previously gone 8-5 ATS. Only one of those games was decided by fewer than 11 points and it was the 42-35 win over Indiana earlier this year. But it’s still a lot of points to lay in a Conference Championship Game. What we are confident in here is the Buckeyes scoring lots of points. They are averaging 46.6 per game and the fewest they’ve scored in a game this year was 38. Northwestern has a pretty stout defense, however they’ve yet to face an offense this dynamic in 2020. Expect a final score in the neighborhood of 40-20 for this year’s Big 10 Title Game as Ohio State moves on to the College Football Playoff. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times N’western has been a neutral site underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma -5.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OKLAHOMA Oklahoma is going for revenge in this year’s Big 12 Championship Game. One of their two regular season losses was to Iowa State, 37-30 back on October 3rd. That game was played in Ames and OU was a 7.5-point favorite. What’s notable is the Sooners haven’t lost since. They’ve won six in a row, the last five of which have all come by at least 13 points. OU led Iowa State by double digits (17-6) in the first half of the first meetings only to let the lead slip away at the end. They allowed two touchdown drives in the final eight minutes of the fourth quarter. At the time, it was their second blown lead in as many weeks (also Kansas State). There is no doubt Oklahoma is in a better place now and favorites have dominated these Power 5 Championship Games of late. Since 2015, the underdog has won just twice in 23 Championship Games. Iowa State has had a nice year, but they aren’t as good as OU. The revenge factor is big here. So we’ll lay the short number. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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12-18-20 | Ball State v. Buffalo -13 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -120 | 56 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO Buffalo steamrolled its way to this MAC Championship Game, winning all five of its games by an average of 31.8 points! They are clearly the best team in their conference this year, a claim supported by the fact they are double digit favorites in Friday’s Championship Game against a Ball State team that is also on a five-game win streak. The only game Buffalo didn’t cover this year was against Bowling Green where they were 31-point favorites. They won that game 42-17 and were up bigger before allowing the backdoor cover. Going back to last season, the Bulls have covered seven of their last eight as favorites. RB Jaret Patterson went over 1000 yards rushing despite the team playing just five games. He’s only the 12th back in College Football history to go over 1000 yards in just five games. In addition to all that you’ve already read about them, Buffalo is 17-5 ATS its last 22 MAC games. They are the clear class of the conference this year and will punctuate this 2020 season with a decisive win in the Championship Game. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-12-20 | Stanford -2.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Oregon State has put together four straight ATS wins, all one score games. One of them was an upset over rival Oregon. Last week they played without their star running back and still stayed within six of Utah - as 14-point underdogs. The Beavers have been double digit dogs in three of those wins.They are underdogs again this week, although not by double digits, to a Stanford team they’ve lost to 10 straight times. The Cardinal are coming off a big win against Washington last week, their second victory in a row after opening 0-2. RB Jefferson is going to return this week for the Beavers, but they have a backup QB and that makes the offense one-dimensional and easier to prepare for. Stanford has four injured players, two of them wide receivers. This game was going to take place in Palo Alto, but had to be moved to Corvallis due to COVID protocols in California. This will be a relatively low-scoring game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-12-20 | USC v. UCLA +3.5 | Top | 43-38 | Loss | -118 | 102 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UCLA Southern Cal looked especially good on Sunday (we had them!) as a big passing day from QB Slovis (5 TD passes!) allowed them to overwhelm Washington State 38-13. A win this week, against a UCLA team they’ve now been favored against 18 of the last 19 seasons, sends the Trojans through to the Pac 12 Championship. But this game is a lot more tricky than it seems. USC is playing on short rest. UCLA is 3-2 with both losses occurring on the road in one-possession games. The Bruins are 4-0 ATS the last four games and the only straight up loss they’ve suffered during that time was by three at Oregon, a game which they outgained the opponent only to be undone by four turnovers. The Bruins come into Saturday as winners of two in a row, having beaten Arizona and Arizona State. USC could not run the ball last week, gaining just 5 yards on the ground, and we don’t expect them to have much success in that department this week either. Home team is 12-5 ATS the last 17 meetings and USC is just 1-5-1 ATS its last seven as a road favorite. Play on UCLA AAA |
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12-12-20 | Houston v. Memphis +4.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 98 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MEMPHIS The start time for this game was bumped back a few hours, but we assure you things will be worth the wait as Memphis looks to upset Houston. Memphis getting points at the Liberty Bowl is not something you’ll see very often. There’s a reason for that. They’ve won 14 straight home games, a win streak that stretches back to October 2018. The Tigers last home loss was by one point to a UCF team that finished the regular season 12-0. While not as good as they were last season, Memphis is still 5-0 at home where they are averaging 43.9 points and giving up only 29.8. They beat UCF here earlier this season. They’ve defeated Houston four years in a row, scoring at least 42 points in all four wins. Houston has never really been able to get on track in 2020 due to COVID-19 and contact tracing. They’ve played only six games with the most recent being over a month ago. This is a tough ask to lay points on the road against a team that’s been so dominant on its home field. The Cougars are 4-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, losing eight of those games outright. They are also 0-3 SU and ATS the L3 times playing with 2 or more weeks rest. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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12-12-20 | Coastal Carolina -12.5 v. Troy | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA For Coastal Carolina, the plan for last week was always to “make a statement.” At first they thought it would be at the expense of Liberty, a fellow non-P5 school with an excellent record. But when Liberty had to bail due to COVID, undefeated BYU stepped up and took their place. Few gave the Chanticleers a chance on such short notice (they were 10.5-point underdogs), but all they ended up doing was pull off the biggest win in school history, defeating BYU 22-17. Now 10-0, Coastal Carolina looks to finish the regular season undefeated by winning at Troy. The Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. Louisiana) awaits the Chanticleers next weekend. But don’t expect any kind of “look ahead” given that CC is looking to stay undefeated. Troy, who may be without their starting QB, simply doesn’t score enough to keep pace with a team like the Chanticleers. Before shutting out South Alabama 29-0 last week, the Trojans had scored just 13, 17 and 10 points their previous three games, all losses. Coastal Carolina is winning by an average of almost three touchdowns per game this season. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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12-11-20 | Nevada v. San Jose State -2.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN JOSE STATE The number of unbeaten teams across College Football has dwindled down to nine with five of those teams having played five or less games. San Jose State is one of the big surprises on that list. Last week the Spartans were supposed to host Hawaii but were instead forced to head out to Honolulu. They won anyway, 35-24, to improve to 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS. Once again they’ve “lost” a home game this week as they’ll face Nevada in Las Vegas (at least it’s not Reno) at Sam Boyd Stadium. Still we expect this nice story to continue with SJSU picking up another victory. Nevada was lucky to defeat Fresno State 37-26 last week as the defense gave up almost 600 yards! Turnovers really bailed them out, but that’s not a reliable blueprint for success. San Jose State has a pretty good defense and the team is 14-5 ATS its last 19 Mountain West games. Play on SAN JOSE STATE AAA |
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12-11-20 | UTEP v. North Texas UNDER 63 | Top | 43-45 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER While North Texas is technically the “road team” for this game, it is being played at Apogee Stadium in Denton, which is their home. This matchup was originally going to take place on October 31st in El Paso before having to be rescheduled. North Texas has been fortunate in that this is the seventh time in nine games they’ve gotten to play at home. But they haven’t taken advantage, going just 2-4 in Denton. It’s been a rough last two weeks for the Mean Green as they’ve scored just 48 total points while giving up 40+ in a pair of losses. But we look for the defense to get a reprieve this week against a rusty UTEP offense that has not taken the field in four weeks. It’s not as if the Miners were doing much offensively before COVID wreaked havoc on their schedule. They come in averaging only 20.1 points/game. The UTEP defense has done a pretty good job at stopping the run though and that is critical when facing this North Texas offense. We see this ending up as a surprisingly low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-10-20 | Pittsburgh -6.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 54 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PITT Pittsburgh (5-5) looks to wrap up the regular season with an above-.500 record as they play at Georgia Tech Thursday night. This should be a big offensive night for the Panthers as QB Kenny Pickett is back in the fold and will be facing a defense that’s giving up an ugly 42.6 points at home this year. With Pickett in the starting lineup, the Panthers are 5-3 this season. One of those losses was to Clemson two weeks ago. The other two were by a combined two points. So far Pickett has thrown for more than 2200 yards with 12 TD passes. Half of his interceptions came against Clemson. He’s completing 62% of his passes. Georgia Tech, who will wrap up its season next week in Miami, is a pretty lousy 3-6 after losing by 10 at NC State Saturday. The Yellow Jackets have been remarkably inconsistent in 2020 and there’s no reason to believe they’ll “show up” here. The offense has a horrible turnover problem and it should be “tough sledding” against a Pitt defense that’s allowing only 2.8 yards/rush and leads the country in sacks. As a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, Pitt is 6-3 SU and ATS its L9. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 pts, Ga Tech is 1-7 SU and ATS L8. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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12-06-20 | Washington State v. USC -11 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
analysis to follow |
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12-05-20 | Colorado v. Arizona UNDER 58 | Top | 24-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Colorado and Arizona have gotten off to very different starts. Colorado is 3-0 and they look to keep rolling here against an 0-3 Arizona team that will be an underdog for the 19th time in 23 games under Kevin Sumlin against Power 5 competition. ‘Zona hasn’t fared too well as a dog, going just 4-15 straight up. They’ve lost a school-record 10 in a row, dating back to last season. They haven’t covered either of the last two weeks, losing by 17 points both times. Colorado is 3-0 ATS as well as SU, so it’s not a surprise that the line has moved in their direction all week long. But we’re not about to lay this many with a team that has won by only 10, 3 and 6 points. Two of those games, the Buffaloes were the underdog. Neither of these offenses are all that explosive as the Buffs have just one play of 40+ yards while the Wildcats have just one play of 34+ yards. Colorado’s offense is excellent at dominating the time of possession, but it’s red zone efficiency (13 for 13 with 11 touchdowns) isn’t likely to be maintained moving forward. That has us on the Under this week. Both teams have seen their point totals decrease every game. Arizona has an injury at QB. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-05-20 | Boston College v. Virginia -6 | Top | 32-43 | Win | 100 | 99 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 9* on VIRGINIA We think it's fair to say that both Boston College and Virginia have surpassed expectations in 2020. Boston College is 6-4, pulling some upsets along the way. First year coach Jeff Hafley has done a good job as has his QB Phil Jurkovec. But Jurkovec and top rusher David Bailey suffered injuries in last week’s win over Louisville. While both are listed atop their respective depth charts, the injuries are something worth monitoring. Virginia is going to be highly motivated for this game as they have never beaten BC in six all-time matchups. Getting back to this season, the Cavaliers have covered four straight, winning the last three straight up and should be fresh off a bye week. They were supposed to have faced Florida State last week, but that didn’t happen. Before that they face Abilene Christian so it’s been several weeks since they’ve been tested. The fact the Cavs beat North Carolina here at home carries a lot of weight with us as does their 16-2 SU record in the last 18 home games (12-5-1 ATS). When playing with at least two weeks rest, Virginia is 5-0 ATS the past three seasons. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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12-05-20 | Penn State v. Rutgers +11.5 | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on RUTGERS Penn State finally broke into the win column as it defeated another struggling “blue blood” (Michigan) 27-17 on the road. That was also the first time all season that the Nittany Lions covered the spread. While not as bad as their record indicates, last week’s performance didn’t say to us that PSU was anywhere close to deserving of its Top 15 preseason ranking. It’s back to laying double digits this week, on the road, against a Rutgers team that’s been competitive in 2020. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS as underdogs so far and just pulled their second upset of the season, beating Purdue 37-30 last week in West Lafayette. Before that, Rutgers had suffered close losses to Michigan (49-43) and Illinois (23-20), the former being a multi-overtime affair. So we don’t see the Scarlet Knights getting blown out at home here. After getting the proverbial “monkey off their back” last week, there’s going to be a tendency for Penn State to “ease up” this week. They’ve covered just one of the last five times they’ve been a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. You’d have to go back to September 2018 to find the last time the Nittany Lions covered the spread in two straight games. Play on RUTGERS AAA |
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12-05-20 | Oklahoma State -2.5 v. TCU | Top | 22-29 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OK State Oklahoma State is set to meet TCU this week as the Cowboys look to further distance themselves from the beating they took from rival Oklahoma in Bedlam two weeks ago. Minus their top two running backs, the Pokes still were able to put up 50 points and over 500 yards last week in a win over Texas Tech. They didn’t cover, but that’s because they were laying double digits and gave up two late touchdowns to the Red Raiders to make it a 50-44 final. TCU, who is just 5-11 ATS its last 16 home games, doesn’t have the kind of firepower to keep pace here. Though they did score 59 last week, that was against Kansas, so it really “doesn’t count.” They also scored three non-offensive touchdowns in that contest. Oklahoma State is certainly better than the last three teams TCU has beaten and the Cowboys have won 10 of their last 12 games when the line is a field goal or less either way. The Horned Frogs have been hit hard by COVID and were missing upwards of 30 players last week. That’s not good. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE AAA |
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12-05-20 | Rice v. Marshall -23 | Top | 20-0 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MARSHALL Marshall is still undefeated (7-0) and ranked 21st in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. They’re not getting much respect nationwide (they are 15th in both AP & Coaches Polls), but they could probably care less. The Thundering Herd are winning by an average of 27.3 points/game and have covered all but two times. One of those two ATS losses was as a 44-point favorite vs. UMass, a game they won 51-10. The other was a 20-9 win over an FAU team that has a really good defense. Rice does not have a good defense nor are they getting 44 points this week in Huntington. This will be just game #4 for the Owls, whose season did not get underway until October 24th. They played just one game in November and lost 27-17 to North Texas. The three teams Rice has played - Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss and North Texas - are all terrible and in no way prepares them for this huge step up in class. Marshall has been off for 21 days and looking to beat up on somebody. Rice will oblige. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State OVER 53 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER The Sun Belt is really strong at the top this year. The conference currently boasts two Top 25 teams and neither is Appalachian State, who has been the standard-bearer the last couple seasons. It should be a good one Friday night in Boone, NC as App State hosts #25 Louisiana, who will be playing in the Conference Championship Game on December 19th against a Coastal Carolina team that might still be undefeated. It’ll be the third straight year for Louisiana in that game. They’ve never won it, nor have they ever defeated Appalachian State (0-8) since they became conference rivals. It won’t be easy this time either though they do average 35.0 points/game after scoring 70 last week. On the flip side, look for Appalachian State to move the ball in this game via the run. The Mountaineers are averaging 256 rushing yards per game. That’s a problem for a Louisiana defense that is allowing 170 rushing yards per game. The Ragin Cajuns have already permitted 16 rushing touchdowns and when they faced Coastal Carolina earlier in the year, they allowed 200+ yards on the ground and a pair of touchdowns. Two offenses averaging more than 30 points/game merit a total higher than this. Play on the OVER AAA |
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12-03-20 | Air Force v. Utah State +10.5 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH STATE Utah State is now 1-4 on the season as they recorded their first win of the season last Thursday, beating New Mexico by a score of 41-24. The Aggies get another home game this week, this time against an Air Force team that was supposed to play last Thursday as well, but didn’t. Their game vs. Colorado State was one of many games cancelled/postponed because of COVID-19. That means the Falcons played just one game in November. They made it count with a 28-0 shutout of the same New Mexico team that Utah State just defeated. Now that both Mountain West sides have proven they can dominate a winless team, let’s see what they can do against one another. The spread just seems too high for an Air Force team playing on the road with just four games under its belt. While it’s true that Utah State has played only five games, they haven’t had much interruption since their season began. For Air Force, this is only the second game in five weeks. Historically, they haven’t been good as road favorites (2-4 ATS L6) or on Thursdays (7-13 SU/ATS). Last week’s win should give Utah State some confidence that they can keep this one close. Play on UTAH STATE AAA |
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11-28-20 | Nevada v. Hawaii OVER 60 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Nevada is 5-0 and leading the Mountain West Conference. By the time this game kicks Saturday night, either San Jose State or Boise State (both 4-0) will be tied with them for first place. The Wolf Pack look to stay in front when they make a trip out to Honolulu to face 2-3 Hawaii, who just faced Boise State. A 40-32 loss to the Broncos was the second time in three weeks that a Hawaii game had 72 total points scored. It was also the fourth straight game where the Warriors gave up more than 30 points. They are giving up 36.5 per game at home. Nevada is scoring 32.2 so they should definitely do their part in getting this one to the total. QB Carson Strong has thrown for 340+ yards in four of the five games. So this Over boils down to the Hawaii offense. Nevada has not faced many good offenses thus far. Hawaii has topped 30 three of its five games with the two exceptions being against two good defensive teams (San Diego State, Wyoming). Two home games have seen the Warriors score 71 points so far. Both teams likely hit 30 here. The Over is 21-8 the last 29 instances of Hawaii being a home dog and its 6-0 when they are off a straight up loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-28-20 | Auburn +24.5 v. Alabama | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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11-28-20 | South Alabama v. Arkansas State UNDER 64 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the UNDER This is just too high of a total when one of the teams has gone Under in six straight and only averages 20.1 points/game. The team in question is South Alabama, who is 3-6 and just dropped its 4th straight last week, 31-14 to Georgia State. The Jaguars haven’t topped 17 points in any of those last four contests. Now this week’s opponent - Arkansas State - is very much a “bird of a different feather.” They are scoring 31.4 points while giving up 39.6. There have been three games this year where the Red Wolves have scored 45 or more. One of those was last week. But last week was also the fourth game where they gave up at least 45 and they lost 47-45 to Texas State. Something is going to have to give this week in the Sun Belt. Before last week’s 47-45 loss, ASU’s last games saw 47, 48 and 62 combined points scored. They scored just 20, 10 and 17. By the way, Arkansas State is also 3-6 and on a four-game losing streak. So while we’re tempted to simply say this winds up being more of a “South Alabama” game, it’s really more indicative of where both teams are at. Can’t see both getting to 30 or one getting to 40. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-28-20 | North Texas v. UTSA -2 | Top | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 9* on UTSA UTSA has gotten in a lot more games than North Texas. This will be the Roadrunners’ 11th game of the season. Entering this weekend, only Texas State has played more. North Texas has played only six games including just one over the last month. That one was played last week and was a 27-17 win over Rice. It was their second straight win after three straight losses. Besides Rice, they’ve beaten a very bad Middle Tennessee team and Houston Baptist, a FCS program. UTSA is 6-4 on the year and has won three of four. They are off a 23-20 win at Southern Miss and now return home where they’ve gone 4-1 SU. Another pertinent trend is that UTSA has won the last seven times it has been favored, four of those games coming this year. North Texas, who trailed 10-0 last week, has a poor defense. The Mean Green are giving up 520.5 yards/game. That is a LOT. They did a good job stopping the run against Rice last week, but UTSA has 521 yards rushing in its last two games. The North Texas secondary was also shredded for 327 yards last week. UTSA always gets it done as a favorite so we’ll happily lay this short number. Play on UTSA AAA |
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11-28-20 | Maryland +12 v. Indiana | Top | 11-27 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARYLAND Indiana is the only 5-0 ATS team in the country. But they are coming off their first loss of the year, in a high-profile situation, to #3 Ohio State. Considering they were almost three touchdown underdogs in Columbus, we’d say the Hoosiers played well in a 42-35 loss. Well, except for the run game, which produced -1 yard. The bottom line though is IU’s “bubble” was burst and this looks like a classic hangover spot against a Maryland team that already has two upset wins to its credit. The Terrapins have beaten Minnesota as a 17.5 point underdog and then Penn State as a 27.5 point underdog. So an outright win Saturday definitely isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Unlike Indiana, who is one week removed from a loss to Ohio State, Maryland has been off for two weeks. So the schedule really favors them here. The reason for having those last two weeks off - cancellations vs. Michigan State and Ohio State - should be obvious at this point (COVID). But even though he’s been forced to coach virtually these last two weeks, coach Locksley feels his team is ready. Indiana was down 28 last week and this is just the third time they’ve been favored in 2020. Play on MARYLAND AAA |
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11-27-20 | Oregon v. Oregon State OVER 64 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 52 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Oregon is undefeated heading into “The Civil War.” In a normal year, that would be quite the achievement. But in 2020, it means that the Ducks are “only” 3-0. They underperformed last weekend in a game they were favored to win by 18.5 points. They beat UCLA by just three points (38-35) and needed to force four turnovers to do so. Turnovers have been an issue for the Ducks as well as they’ve given it away six times in three games. Yet they are still averaging 38.7 points/game. They failed to run the ball effectively last week (just 88 yards on 34 attempts), but that should change this week in a game where they are basically a two touchdown favorite on the road. Oregon State has twice given up more than 200 yards rushing this year. They didn’t last week and won for the first time, beating Cal 31-27. The Beavers offense has been pretty consistent thus far, averaging 26.7 points and they’ve been between 21 and 31 in all three games. Along with what Oregon figures to score on Friday, that should be enough to propel this one Over the total. The Over is 13-4-1 the past 18 meetings and 4-0 the last four times Oregon has been a road favorite. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-27-20 | Notre Dame -4.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME Notre Dame is 8-0 and #2 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. They’ve already beaten Clemson, so they are really in the driver’s seat right now. North Carolina is going to be the toughest remaining test before the ACC Championship Game, however we think the Tar Heels are getting too much respect in this Top 25 battle. While UNC can put up a ton of points (they average 43.1 per game), so can Notre Dame (37.6 PPG). The difference is the Tar Heels defense also gives up a ton. They are allowing over 30 points/game and the last time we saw them they gave up 53, not to mention almost 750 total yards, to Wake Forest. The Heels were behind by as much as three touchdowns in that game, which was at home. Considering how the Fighting Irish have put up at least 42 points in four of the last six games, Ian Book and the offense should have a big game Friday. Notre Dame’s defense is #1 in the ACC at stopping the run. North Carolina’s defense has allowed more than 200 yards rushing in three different games! Uh oh. Here’s the kicker(s): ND has won its last 10 games as a road favorite (6-3-1 ATS) plus they are 10-0 SU the L10 times they’ve been a favorite (home or away) of 3.5 to 10 points, also going 8-1-1 ATS. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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11-27-20 | Iowa State v. Texas +1.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Texas is the play here as the Lonnghorns face Iowa State in a ranked showdown. Although only 2-4-1 ATS, UT is 5-2 SU with one of those two losses coming to Oklahoma in overtime. Incredibly, three of the ‘Horns’ seven games have gone to OT. They have not played in three weeks due to a scheduled bye (last week) and an unscheduled bye two weeks ago (Kansas game postponed due to COVID). So they should be well rested and prepared for an Iowa State team that’s coming off a 45-0 win over Kansas State last weekend. The size of that victory has obviously influenced bettors' perception of the Cyclones, but before we go giving them too much credit, be aware that Kansas State has devolved into a total mess since losing QB Thompson for the season. They are also a team that’s been severely impacted, in a negative way, by COVID. We really like the fact that this line has “jumped the fence” and that Texas is now a slight home dog. That’s great value for a game where we projected them to be a field goal favorite. Iowa State is 2-5 ATS its last seven chances as a road favorite of three points or less. The Cyclones lost at home to Louisiana, never led at Oklahoma State and while they did beat Oklahoma, they trailed almost the entire game. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-21-20 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma OVER 59 | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Bedlam has seen Oklahoma go 11-4 ATS against Mike Gundy-led Oklahoma State teams. Most of those games have been high-scoring as well. Last year’s game, a 34-16 win by OU, was the fewest total points scored in Bedlam in a decade. This year both teams are ranked in the Top 18. Oklahoma, who suffered two early season losses, has now won four straight games. They are averaging 46.1 points/game for the season and hit 62 in the last two. Oklahoma State has only one loss, 41-34 to Texas, so a win here would really put them in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 Championship Game. But winning Saturday in Norman is going to require them to score a lot of points. Oklahoma’s defense has given up 37+ in three different games, so the Cowboys should score a lot. Whether it's enough for the outright win remains to be seen. But it will be enough to help send this game Over the total. The Over is already 15-5-1 in the Sooners previous 21 home games. Play on the OVER AAA |
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11-21-20 | Liberty +5.5 v. NC State | Top | 14-15 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIBERTY Liberty can’t get any respect. The Flames are 7-0 and ranked 21st in the country. But they are still underdogs to a 5-3 North Carolina State team this week. This despite having already beaten another ACC team, Virginia Tech, as a 17-point dog two weeks ago. We took Liberty plus the points there and will do the same here. NC State is lucky to even be 5-3. They got outgained in road wins against Pitt and Virginia. Two weeks ago they faced Miami and while that ended up being a close loss (44-41), the Wolfpack gave up over 600 total yards and were outgained severely. Oh yeah, they also lost to Virginia Tech -- by 21! NC State’s defense has already allowed 40+ points four different times. Liberty averages 42.3 points/game and while some of that can be attributed to weaker competition, they did score 38 against Va Tech. They are 7-2 ATS L9 vs. the ACC. We just don’t see them as the underdog in this matchup. NC State has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has been favored. Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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11-21-20 | Missouri -6 v. South Carolina | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MISSOURI South Carolina has a lot of problems right now. They just fired Will Muschamp. That drastic move came after three straight losses, all of which saw the Gamecocks give up 48+ points. Last week’s 59-42 loss at Ole Miss was apparently the “straw that broke the camel’s back.” The defense gave up over 700 yards! So Missouri, who is playing for the first time in three weeks, has to like its chances this week. The Tigers last game didn’t go so well either. They were beaten 41-17 by Florida on Halloween. But facing a team that has given up 159 points in three games and just fired its coach is what we call a “get-well” game. There’s way too much turmoil going on at South Carolina for interim coach Mike Bobo to have a successful debut. Bobo was the offensive coordinator under Muschamp, so he’s not going to get this defense fixed anytime soon. Look for Mizzou to achieve a season-high in points and earn itself a comfortable cover this week. Play on MISSOURI AAA |
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11-21-20 | Wisconsin -7.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WISCONSIN #10 Wisconsin being a road favorite here against #19 Northwestern says a lot. Since 2018, teams ranked in the top 15 have done very well (16-5 ATS) against opponents that are ranked, but outside the Top 15. That includes 5-0 ATS if the Top 15 team is on the road, which Wisconsin is here. That the Badgers are favored by this many points, despite being 1-5 ATS the L6 years vs. Northwestern with three outright losses, tells you what the oddsmakers think of this year’s matchup. Northwestern might be 4-0 in the Big 10 for the first time since ‘96, but three of their wins have been by single digits and they’ve been outgained twice. It’s a “phony” 4-0 record. Wisconsin just handed Michigan its worst home loss since 1935, 49-11, outgaining the Wolverines by nearly 250 total yards. We’re proud to say we had the Badgers last week in Ann Arbor. Despite being 2-0, the Badgers are still being underrated by the public, likely because they had two games called off because of COVID. But in the two games they have played they have put up 45 and 49 points, winning by 38 each time. We expect Wisconsin’s superiority to be on full display Saturday afternoon at Ryan Field as they once again roll to an easy win and cover. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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11-21-20 | Cincinnati v. Central Florida OVER 64 | Top | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the OVER #7 Cincinnati is undefeated (7-0) but about to embark on a three-game road trip. They better not take UCF too lightly this week. This will be the first time UCF is an underdog in a regular season game since 2017 (ends a 39-game streak). Though unranked, the Golden Knights are always a threat to put a ton of points on the board. They lead all of NCAAF in total offense with 619.1 yards/game. That’s close to an all-time single season record. UCF has averaged 44.3 points per gameduring their current three-game win streak. While Cincinnati’s defense is top 10 in yards allowed and top three in scoring, a big reason for that is they have not faced many good offenses. UCF will easily be the best offense they face all season. Lucky for Cincy then that they too are capable of putting up a ton of points. They put up 55 last week on East Carolina, which was the 4th straight game with 38 or more. We think both teams are going to hit 30 here, so that means a play on the Over, which is 4-1 the last five times that the Bearcats have been road favorites. Play on the OVER AAA |
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11-21-20 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina -4 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina has been a favorite of ours for weeks now. They have treated us to multiple ATS wins, a 30-27 upset of Louisiana and 51-0 beatdown of Georgia State to name a couple. The Chanticleers deserve everyone’s respect as they are now 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS on the season and ranked #15 in the country. This week they face perhaps the biggest remaining hurdle to an undefeated regular season, that being Appalachian State. But we’ll gladly lay the points again with CC as the game is in Conway and the home team is off a bye. Coastal Carolina wasn’t supposed to be off a bye here, but last week’s game vs. Troy got called off because of COVID. The extra week to prepare for a tough opponent is a big break for the Chanticleers. Meanwhile the situation for Appalachian State is not good. They are 0-3 ATS the L3 weeks and haven’t beaten a ranked opponent since their famous upset of Michigan back in 2007 (0-7 SU since then). Making things even worse is the uncertain status of QB Zac Thomas. Thomas left last week’s 17-13 win over Georgia State with an apparent case of whiplash. Even if Thomas were to play Saturday, it’s tough to like the Mountaineers here considering they trailed Georgia State when Thomas got hurt. This is Coastal Carolina’s year. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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11-21-20 | LSU +1 v. Arkansas | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU Arkansas’ unbeaten ATS run ended last week in emphatic fashion. They were thumped 63-35 by Florida, which was a reminder just how large of a gap still exists between the Razorbacks and the SEC’s elite. For the record, the Hogs were 6-0 ATS this year prior to facing Florida and had covered eight in a row going back to the end of 2019. That eight win streak started with a cover vs. LSU - but they were 39.5 point underdogs last season. LSU obviously isn’t the same team this year, but they should still be able to defeat Arkansas for a fifth straight time. The Tigers were spared a beating at the hands of Alabama last week as that game was claimed by COVID. They haven’t played since an ugly 48-11 loss to Auburn Halloween night. All that time to prepare should lead to a focused effort this week and hopefully the players affected by COVID will return. They are 7-1 ATS following an ATS loss. Arkansas has its own COVID-related issues with Sam Pittman forced to coach remotely. That will affect a team’s preparation as we saw last week when the Razorbacks defense gave up almost 600 total yards against Florida. LSU isn’t Florida, but they are still better than the Hogs. LSU scored at least 34 points in every game before losing to Auburn. Play on LSU AAA |
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11-20-20 | New Mexico v. Air Force UNDER 55.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 61 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Air Force hosts New Mexico Friday night with both teams still looking for their first conference win. Air Force has won a game in 2020 as they shockingly beat Navy 40-7 in the season opener (were +6.5). But that was on October 3rd and the Falcons are 0-2 since. After a three-week layoff, they lost 17-6 to San Jose State, then the following week brought a 49-30 loss to Boise State. They are off another three-week layoff here. New Mexico is 0-3 and lost 12 straight games going back to last season. They can’t even play in Albuquerque with COVID concerns forcing them to relocate their home games to Las Vegas. The Lobos lost their Sin City debut last week, 27-20 against Nevada, but did at least cover the spread for a second consecutive game. In addition to the COVID-19 issues both teams have had to deal with this season, New Mexico and Air Force also enter this Friday night game with injury concerns at QB. It’s not like we’d expect much from either offense anyway. The Over has hit in seven straight meetings between these two schools, but the Under is 4-0 in New Mexico’s last four Friday games. Air Force is also 6-1 Under its last seven times it has been the favorite. Under is the call here. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-20-20 | Purdue -3 v. Minnesota | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -106 | 59 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PURDUE Purdue is 2-1 but just suffered its first loss last Saturday. They came up short against Northwestern, losing 27-20 as 3.5-point home underdogs. That was painful for us as we had the Boilermakers. An inability to run the ball is what cost them. Running the ball here vs. Minnesota shouldn’t be a problem. The Golden Gophers have given up 181+ yards rushing in all four games and the 235 they allowed last week in a 35-7 loss to Iowa was only the THIRD most allowed in a game this season. So you shouldn’t be shocked to learn Minnesota is 1-3 on the year. Their lone win was against a bad Illinois team. They just haven’t looked right since the season started. Michigan, who obviously isn’t very good, blew them out. Then the Gophers lost as big favorites to a Maryland team that was off a 43-3 loss. Then came the 41-14 win over Illinois, which PJ Fleck hoped was the start of a turnaround. It wasn’t. Losing 35-7 at home to Iowa was a massive step back and the Golden Gophers have been outscored 84-31 in two games at TCF Bank Stadium. They’ve allowed 35+ points in all three losses this season. Purdue is 17-7 ATS off an ATS loss and has double revenge. They win. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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11-19-20 | Tulane v. Tulsa -6 | Top | 24-30 | Push | 0 | 35 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULSA Tulane will arrive in Tulsa Thursday night on a 3-game SU win streak and a 5-game ATS win streak. But the teams they’ve been beating aren’t very good. Tulsa is now ranked #25 in the country, ending a decade-long absence from the polls. Their only loss this season was to Oklahoma State and they led that game going into the fourth quarter. They’ve since won four in a row including an upset of UCF. So we’ve got two hot teams from the American on the field Thursday night. We side with the Golden Hurricane as they are at home and have a defense that can stop the run. That latter part is huge when facing Tulane, who is 4-1 when rushing for 200+ yards this season. But Tulsa has yet to give up more than 151 yards rushing to any opponent. This is also a triple revenge spot for the Golden Hurricane, who has lost to Tulane three straight years. But none of those Tulsa teams won more than four games. This one is 4-1 SU. Tulane is 2-5 ATS the last seven times as a road underdog. One of those two covers was earlier this year (at UCF) as a 21-point dog (lost by 17). Tulsa has already beaten two teams (UCF, Houston) that beat Tulane by 17+. Play on TULSA AAA |
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11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan OVER 59.5 | Top | 52-44 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER This game may very well end up deciding the MAC West. Both Western Michigan and Central Michigan are 2-0. After a 58-13 blowout win over Akron in the opener, Western Michigan pulled a rabbit out of the hat for us last week against Toledo. Central Michigan has also covered the spread in both of its wins, 30-27 over Ohio U (were underdogs) and 40-10 over Northern Illinois. Another constant for both teams is lots of scoring. Western Michigan has totaled 99 points in two games while Central Michigan has scored 70. The Western Michigan offense is averaging a stunning 8.0 yards/play, led by QB Kaleb Eleby, who is completing 71 percent of his passes. The Over is 5-0 in the Broncos previous 5 Wednesday games and 6-2-1 their last nine road games. The Over is also 6-1 in the Chippewas last 7 Wednesday games. Their offense has been no slouch either, averaging 5.7 yards per play. Here they go up against a defense that just gave up 500 yards last week. This should be a back and forth, high-scoring game. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-17-20 | Akron v. Kent State -25 | Top | 35-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENT STATE Akron did play better than expected last week.They “only” lost by 14 to Ohio U. That a two-touchdown loss could be spun as a “success” (Zips easily covered the 27-point spread) should be a clear indication that this team is not good. They are probably one of the worst teams in the entire country. The loss to Ohio last Tuesday was their 19th straight, a streak which goes back to 2018. They were 0-12 SU a season ago. The Zips have failed to score more than 17 points in any of the last nine games. Such offensive (and overall) ineptitude is going to be a major problem facing rival Kent State this week.The Golden Flashes went just 2-10 SU in 2018. But unlike Akron, this program has turned things around. After winning five straight at the end of last year (including bowl), it’s a 2-0 start to 2020 that has seen the Flashes offense average 254 yards rushing and 295 yards passing! They put up 62 points last week on Bowling Green, a comparable team to Akron, and that was on the road. Akron’s defense has given up over 400 yards rushing in its two games.Last year, the Kent State defense held the Zips to three points in a 23-point win. This year’s matchup figures to be even more lopsided. It’s a team that’s 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS hosting a team that’s 0-19 SU/4-15 ATS its L19. A complete mismatch here. Play on KENT STATE AAA |
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11-14-20 | Wisconsin -4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 49-11 | Win | 100 | 70 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WISCONSIN Michigan has not played well as an underdog for Jim Harbaugh. They have lost all 10 games where they have been getting points and covered only twice. This will be the first time under Harbaugh that they’ve been a home dog to anyone besides Ohio State. It’s against a Wisconsin team that’s been forced to cancel its last two games because of COVID. While that is certainly a distraction no team wants to have to deal with, the Badgers were projected to be a Top 5 (ish) team (in the country) this season and were 45-7 winners (against Illinois) in the one game they did play. The Badgers could have QB Graham Mertz on the field this Saturday in Ann Arbor. Regardless whether or not he suits up, look for Wisconsin to take advantage of a terrible Wolverines secondary that has been picked apart in losses to Michigan State and Indiana. Michigan has missed covering the spread by a combined 45 points the last two weeks. They look to be vastly overrated and Harbaugh’s future is now very much in doubt. The team just isn’t very good. Wisconsin has won four of the last six against Michigan. Not only were they favored in all four wins, those four wins were all by double digits. While it was two weeks ago, the Badgers are 4-0 ATS the L4 times they’ve been off a 40+ point game. They’ve also covered 13 of 17 as road favorites. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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11-14-20 | Oregon -10 v. Washington State | Top | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 69 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON You could pick apart Oregon’s 35-14 win over Stanford win last Saturday. The Cardinal didn’t have their starting QB or top receiver and still moved the ball pretty well. Had their kicker not missed FOUR field goals, it’s obviously a much closer game. But be careful about discounting what the Ducks did. Their offense, in the first game without Justin Herbert, gained almost 500 yards. Washington State’s defense isn’t good so we’re expecting plenty of points and yards from Oregon yet again this week. The big story (from a betting perspective) is that the Ducks are 0-10 ATS the L10 meetings with Wazzu. That is quite the crazy streak. Oregon did snap a 4-game SU losing streak to Wazzu with a 37-35 win in Eugene last year. Now it’s time for the ATS streak to end. We know lots of people are falling in love with last week’s performance by the Cougars new starting QB, Jayden de Laura. But remember that it came against Oregon State. You have to go back to the WSU defense, which gave up a lot of yards (451) and should be picked apart by Tyler Shough and the Ducks offense. Washington State is just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they’ve been off a SU win. Play on OREGON AAA |
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11-14-20 | Northwestern v. Purdue +3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PURDUE Northwestern is 3-0 but has been pretty lucky to win each of the last two weeks. They trailed Iowa 17-0 before coming back, thanks to three Hawkeyes’ turnovers. They gained just 273 yards in that 21-20 victory. Then the Wildcats were -125 in total yards to Nebraska in a 21-13 win last week where again turnovers were the story. The Cornhuskers gave it away twice in the second half, both times deep inside Northwestern territory. In three games, Northwestern has forced nine turnovers. They probably can’t count on that saving them every week. Nebraska was in the red zone EIGHT times last week, yet came away with only 13 points. This week they go to Purdue to face a Boilermakers team that is also unbeaten (2-0). Purdue had an unexpected bye last Saturday as they were supposed to face Wisconsin, but that game was cancelled due to the Badgers’ COVID outbreak. The Boilermakers have looked good on offense even without All-American WR Rondale Moore. David Bell has 22 catches for 243 yards so far and Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald called HIM “the best receiver in the country.” The Wildcats are just 2-8-2 ATS the L12 times they’ve been favored. Purdue is on a 19-7 ATS run as underdogs. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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11-14-20 | Colorado v. Stanford -6.5 | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD UPDATE: The following writeup was completed BEFORE the Pac 12 was forced to apologize to Stanford for the inconclusive testing that resulted in last week's COVID-related absences. All of those Cardinal players are now available for Saturday and we're liking this play even more! COVID issues and an opening week loss to Oregon will have many doubting Stanford this week, but not us. The Cardinal will be hosting a Colorado team that is off a 48-42 win over UCLA last Saturday. The Buffaloes were up big in that win (by 28 points), but had to hold off a furious second half rally by the Bruins. The biggest contributing factor to the win was a +4 turnover margin. The defense still gave up 7.0 yards per rush attempt and almost 500 total yards. Stanford should be able to move the ball here, even if it has to go with a backup QB again. Not having starter Davis Mills (COVID) versus a team as good as Oregon was a really tough blow for the Cardinal last week But they still gained over 400 yards with backup Jack West. The problem was that their kicker missed FOUR field goals! If called back into duty, West can again lean on RB Austin Jones, who just had a 100+ yard day against a defense that’s much better than the one he’ll face this week. Speaking of field goal issues, Colorado’s kicker just retired! The Buffs are 0-4 ATS their last four road games and they were the underdog in all four. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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11-14-20 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette -15.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 64 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LOUISIANA The last two weeks have seen South Alabama fall short against Ga Southern and Coastal Carolina - by scores of 24-17 and 23-6. Now they have to play a third consecutive road game against who we still consider to be the top team in the Sun Belt, Louisiana. The Jaguars have just one road win in their last 16 tries and are 2-23 SU its L25 games as an underdog. While the Ragin Cajuns also lost to Coastal Carolina this year, they would probably still be favored in a rematch. They can potentially earn that rematch by winning Saturday as that would clinch the Sun Belt’s Western Division. (Coastal Carolina leads the East). Coastal Carolina is Louisiana’s only loss of 2020. The Ragin Cajuns have beaten Iowa State and since the CC loss are 3-0 and averaging 446.7 yards of offense. The defense is in the Top 20 in the country in passing yards allowed. Louisiana has beaten S Alabama four years in a row and was actually favored by 27.5 on the ROAD last season. While they didn’t cover the spot, this number is far more manageable and they’re at home this time. While all of Louisiana’s conference games so far have been decided by 10 points or less, they’ve been facing some of the better teams. This is their easiest game to date. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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11-13-20 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati -27.5 | Top | 17-55 | Win | 100 | 55 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati is one of seven teams in the country that’s 6-0 or better. Other than Notre Dame and Alabama, some of the names on that list might surprise you. But the Bearcats are no joke. This is a legit top 10 team in the country right now that has absolutely been destroying its opponents. They’ve averaged 43 points the previous three games and that was against SMU, Memphis and Houston, three of the better teams in the American Athletic Conference. The defense is allowing just 11.7 points/game for the season and hasn’t given up more than 13 since allowing a season-high 20 in the opener vs. Austin Peay. While laying this many points presents a bit of a challenge, we just can’t see Cincy having any difficulty with a 1-5 East Carolina team that’s giving up 37.3 points/game. The Pirates ran for only 35 yards on 29 attempts in a 38-21 loss to Tulane last week, which was at home. They shouldn’t expect to be able to run the ball here either as the Bearcats’ defense is 10th best in the country at stopping the run. This should be a very easy win for the favorite. Lay it! Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State OVER 61 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Colorado State is 1-1. They lost 38-17 to Fresno State in their opening game, but then bounced back to defeat Wyoming 34-24 last week in the annual “Border War.” Boise State (2-1) fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week with an embarrassing 51-17 home loss to BYU. But it's critical to point out that the Broncos were down to their third string quarterback last Friday and their top running back was also injured. Whether or not the injured players will return this week remains unknown, but we believe Boise coach Bryan Harsin will put together a solid enough game plan to put points on the board Thursday night. The third stringer, true freshman Caleb Fennegan, wasn’t actually all that bad vs. BYU. He threw for two touchdowns and completed 15 of his 26 passes. Colorado State is a much easier opponent than BYU and if called into duty again this week, Fennegan will at least be ready. Boise scored 91 points in its first two games. Colorado State is allowing 448.5 yards/game. No matter who the QB has been for Boise State, they’ve always dominated the Rams. They’ve won all nine meetings and averaged 44.5 points/game in doing so. CSU should score enough to help send this one OVER. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-11-20 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -2.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WESTERN MICHIGAN These are probably the best two teams in the MAC’s West Division and if one thing is for certain, it’s that this game is going to be a lot tougher than it was for either side in Week 1. Behind 310 yards rushing, Toledo smoked Bowling Green 38-3 last week. Western Michigan was just as unkind to Akron in a 58-13 blowout. We’ve got some concerns about Toledo though as the Rockets lost all 4 MAC road games last year and did so by an average of 28 points/game. Furthermore, their only two wins in the last six games of 2019 were by a total of five points and came about as a result of the opponents missing on a field goal & two-point conversion. Western Michigan was arguably as talented as any MAC team in 2019 and won all six of its home games. Five of those six wins were by double digits. With this game taking place in Kalamazoo, that’s an edge for the slightly favored Broncos. Also, having lost to Toledo three straight years, this is a big revenge game. We liked what we saw from WMU quarterback Eleby last week and the backs and receivers looked great as well. Toledo QB Peters has some accuracy issues, so be on the lookout for that. Both of these teams are off blowout wins, but the home team is more likely to keep it rolling. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan +9.5 v. Ball State | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on EASTERN MICHIGAN You had both Eastern Michigan coming out on the wrong end of close games last week. They both blew second half leads, so you’ll have two teams ready to go Wednesday. Eastern Michigan lost 27-23 at Kent State and now hits the road for a second straight week to face a Ball State team that lost 38-31 at Miami, Ohio. Ball State won this matchup last season, but by just points, and before that it had been Eastern Michigan prevailing three straight years. This just looks like too many points in a pretty even matchup. Eastern Michigan is 21-6-1 ATS its last 28 games as a road underdog. So this is a spot they usually do well in. They covered the 5.5-point number last week at Kent State. Ball State did not cover against Miami as they were only 1-point underdogs. If you think that playing at home might help the Cardinals here, know that they are just 12-25 ATS their last 37 games here. Eastern Michigan has pulled 12 outright upsets the last four seasons and that actually includes three against Power 5 teams. Knowing that, a simple cover in this matchup doesn’t seem too challenging. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO Both Miami and Buffalo opened 2020 by winning. But both might feel a little fortunate to prevail by the margins that they did. Buffalo’s 49-30 win over Northern Illinois was a byproduct of five Huskies turnovers more than anything else, but at least they still won by 19 points. Miami was only a 38-31 winner over Ball State and had to come back from a double digit deficit (21-10) to do so. Now we had the RedHawks so that comeback made us quite happy. But we recognize a shaky start when we see one. Though they came back and won last week, losing starting QB Brett Gabbert wasn’t ideal. (As of press time, it’s unclear whether Gabbert will return this week). Buffalo might be the best team in the MAC this year. They were picked by many to win the conference last year, but a loss to Miami played a significant role in the Redhawks going on to capture the crown. The Bulls had 133 more yards than the Redhawks in last year’s game and the defense allowed just 2.6 yards per rush attempt. Being -4 in turnovers is what cost them. Buffalo’s defense was tops in scoring among MAC teams in 2019 and seven starters are back from that group. They scored THREE touchdowns last week and will be the difference in this revenge spot. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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11-07-20 | South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina -18 | Top | 6-23 | Loss | -109 | 106 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina is 6-0 and we had them last week when they absolutely bludgeoned Georgia State 51-0. QB Grayson McCall returned (from an injury) and threw for four touchdowns and ran for another. The Chanticleers are now the #15 ranked team in the country. After being a short favorite each of the last two weeks, they turn around to host a South Alabama team that simply isn’t on the same level. The Jaguars started their campaign with an upset of Southern Miss on the road. But the only road game they’ve played since was a 24-17 loss at Georgia Southern last Thursday. The win against Southern Miss, not a good team by the way, is the Jaguars only road win in their last 15 tries. Let’s not forget they are 2-22 SU the last 24 games as an underdog. Coastal Carolina has covered every game but one this year. They’ve won five straight against the Sun Belt and already beaten some of the conference’s best this year. Certainly, they should have little difficulty winning Saturday. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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11-07-20 | Clemson v. Notre Dame OVER 51.5 | Top | 40-47 | Win | 100 | 106 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Clemson vs. Notre Dame has lost some of its luster with Trevor Lawrence not playing (COVID). But it’s still a top five matchup that should be plenty of fun. D.J. Uiagalelei is Lawrence’s backup. Clemson still put up 34 last week in his first start. We realize this is a tougher defense than Boston College and the true freshman’s first road start. But don’t fool yourself into thinking the Tigers aren’t going to put up a decent number here. Uiagalelei threw for 342 yards and two scores last week. Travis Etienne is the ACC’s all-time leading rusher. Notre Dame’s defensive numbers, somewhat, are a byproduct of facing a string of bad offensive teams. But Clemson’s cause is done no favors by the injuries on their defensive side. Notre Dame is averaging almost 35 points/game. Ian Book is a really good QB and the Fighting Irish are going to score more than most previous Clemson opponents. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-07-20 | Baylor v. Iowa State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER Baylor was down 30-0 last week (at home!) to TCU last week before it decided to wake up and “start playing.” By then, it was obviously too late and they still ended up losing 33-23. Now the Bears go to Ames to face Iowa State, who won 52-22 last week against Kansas. The Cyclones just barely covered the spread in that one, scoring a late TD to push them over the four TD threshold (spread). They aren’t scoring that many this week. Not even close. Kansas is the worst defensive team in the Big 12. On the bright side, ISU isn’t likely to give up that many either. Baylor has averaged 20.0 points/game the last three weeks, all losses. They haven’t scored more than 23 against anyone besides Kansas. They can’t run the ball (75 or less rush yards in all three games). Under is 31-16-2 in the past 53 games where Iowa State is the favorite. It’s also 5-0-1 the last six times they’ve been off a win by 20 or more points. 9-1-1 after a game where they scored 40 or more points. Baylor is 6-1-1 Under off a SU loss. Under is 4-1 last five meetings. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-07-20 | Florida +3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 44-28 | Win | 100 | 102 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA We’ve got a showdown in the SEC East this weekend with Florida taking on Georgia in what we can safely say will NOT be a “Cocktail Party.” Florida lost earlier this year to Texas A&M, but losing by three on the road to that opponent shouldn’t be considered bad at all. It was considered “bad” at the time, only because Florida was favored and in hindsight they should not have been. (A&M was off a bad loss to Alabama and hadn’t really looked good). But after a two-week hiatus (COVID), the Gators responded with a 41-17 thumping of Mizzou last week. Now they are underdogs for the 1st time. Their offense has been fantastic so far, scoring at least 38 in every game. QB Trask has at least 4 TD passes in every game as well. Remember that Georgia’s defense gave up 41 to Alabama and is now banged up minus star safety LeCounte and DL Rochester. Georgia’s QB Stetson Bennett has not looked all that impressive. Give us the better offensive team taking points. The Dawgs have scored just 38 points total the last two games. Play on FLORIDA AAA |
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11-07-20 | Texas Tech v. TCU -8 | Top | 18-34 | Win | 100 | 102 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TCU TCU got their act together in a 33-23 win against Baylor last Saturday. Now they return to Fort Worth to play a Texas Tech that hasn’t really been able to get it together all season. The Red Raiders just gave up 62 points in a loss to Oklahoma last week. It was their second time losing while giving up 60+ this season. Their only Big 12 win was against West Virginia, a game where they got outgained by nearly 100 yards. But a late defensive TD put them over the top there. The only other win this season was against FCS Houston Baptist and even then they allowed 600 yards and had to fend off a late 2-point try. TCU is 2-0 on the road, but 0-3 at home. It's just a matter of time until they rectify that discrepancy. The Horned Frogs were up 30-0 last week on Baylor. Meanwhile, Texas Tech gave up 48 in the first half to Oklahoma. These are teams going in opposite directions. The Red Raiders are 2-8 ATS L10 road games. Play on TCU AAA |
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11-07-20 | Liberty +15 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 98 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIBERTY You may not know it, but Liberty has one of the best records in the country. The 25th ranked Flames are 5-0, though they haven’t really beaten anyone of substance. The expectation this week is clearly that they’ll suffer their first loss. But might the oddsmakers be writing them off too much? We think so. While this is the first time since 2002 that a team at 5-0 or better has been a double digit dog to a team with two or more losses, that last instance saw the underdog (Notre Dame) pull an outright upset. Liberty averages 40 points/game, so it’s going to be hard for Virginia Tech to score enough to cover the number in this one. Sure, the Hokies will probably hold the Flames under their season scoring average, but they are still going to have to score a lot of points. Liberty is going to put up a fair number here as Va Tech has allowed at least 31 points in half of its games. The Hokies gave up almost 550 total yards last week to Louisville. They allowed well over 600 to North Carolina. Liberty may not be UNC but they are good enough to cover the spot. Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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11-07-20 | West Virginia v. Texas -6.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -107 | 98 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Texas was overrated at the start of the season, but now we’re getting a pretty good value on the Longhorns as they prepare to host West Virginia this Saturday. The ‘Horns have lost twice but easily could have won both of those games. The Oklahoma game went to four overtimes while the TCU game saw UT fumble at the goal line. Now UT has won twice in overtime so far, including last week’s 41-34 upset of Oklahoma State. But we don’t think you can trust a WVU side that has lost both of its road games thus far. The Mountaineers are off their best win so far, 37-10 over Kansas State, but the Wildcats were playing with a backup QB. Texas went to Morgantown last year and won easily, 42-31. Based on that, you’d think they should easily win in Austin. QB Sam Ehlinger hasn’t played as well as some would hope, but the Longhorns offense still averages 44.3 points/game, which is 10th best in the entire country right now. WVU just isn’t very good on the road and getting this number on the “right side” of 7 seems ideal. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-06-20 | BYU v. Boise State +3 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -105 | 84 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOISE STATE Undefeated BYU (7-0) is set for its toughest test of 2020 when they hit the blue turf in Boise Friday night. Boise State is also undefeated, although just 2-0 (both straight up and against the spread). BYU is 6-1 ATS but it’s really important to look at who they’ve played. Other than Houston, most of the opponents can be found near the bottom of the FBS power rankings. They have been a two touchdown favorite (or more) in five games and a 24 (or more) point favorite in four games. The last two weeks they were favored by 29 and 30.5 points at home vs. Texas State and Western Kentucky. Boise State is the best team they will play all season. The Broncos are not used to being home underdogs. This is only the second time it’s happened in the regular season in the last 15 years. The other time was two years ago vs. Fresno State and they won that game outright, 24-17, getting 2.5 points. Not only is this a chance for Boise State to knock off a 7-0 team, it’s a revenge spot too. BYU gave them their only regular season loss last year 28-25 in Provo. The Cougars are 0-5 all-time here in Boise though. Play on BOISE STATE AAA |
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11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada -15.5 | Top | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEVADA Nevada should run wild in this Thursday night matchup. They are 2-0 and up against a Utah State team that hasn’t been able to stop anyone so far. The winless Aggies are allowing 40 points/game. Nevada has scored 37 points in both of its wins. The Wolf Pack defense should also get a chance to “show off” Thursday as the Utah State offense has only been able to manage 20 points in two games. Nevada is a team that has been able to cover six of its last seven games (going back to last season) including both so far in 2020. They are led by QB Strong who is completing 75% of his passes with zero interceptions. He has 770 yards passing in two games. Last week vs. UNLV, Strong and this Nevada offense gained 9.2 yards/play! The Wolf Pack have revenge for a 36-10 loss on the road to Utah State last season. That was a much stronger Utah State team, however. This year should be a Nevada blowout. Utah State is only 7-19 ATS its last 26 times as an underdog. Play on NEVADA AAA |
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11-04-20 | Ball State v. Miami-OH -2 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI OH In case you forgot, Miami won the MAC last year. They are on a 23-8 SU run in conference play and have won eight in a row at home, which is where they open the season. The RedHawks had a lead in every game in 2019 and will return a bulk of the players from that team. The season opens with Ball State visiting Oxford and Miami certainly remembers how it lost to the Cardinals in last year’s regular season finale. With the MAC East already clinched, they led 27-14 at halftime and decided to pull starters. From that point on, Ball State had a 17-1 edge in first downs and won 41-27. Ball State had plenty of offense last year, but also gave up 31.4 points/game. They did not have a good record in close games (while Miami did). Still, even if you think that was a case of “bad luck,” this line seems short given the offensive talent Miami returns. They are 8-2 ATS the L10 home games and 14-4 ATS L18 conference games. Play on MIAMI OHIO AAA |
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11-04-20 | Western Michigan v. Akron +18 | Top | 58-13 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AKRON Since going 13-1 in 2016 under PJ Fleck, Western Michigan has lost six games each of its three seasons under Tim Lester. The team was probably better than 7-6 a season ago, but the Broncos probably shouldn't be expected to win big Wednesday even though the opponent is Akron. The Zips did not win a single game in 2019 (0-12) under Tim Arth, but should be a lot more competitive this year. They are certainly more experienced. Kato Nelson is a good QB with a solid receiving corps to throw to. The defense has 11 of its top 16 tacklers back. Western Michigan is breaking in a new starting QB and RB. This most unusual offseason and the fact they open on the road have us believing the Broncos may struggle more than expected in this one. They are just 1-7 ATS their last eight road games and 1-5 ATS their last six times as a road favorite. Play on AKRON AAA |