Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-20-21 | Rays v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET – Marco Gonzales struggled with a tough Twins lineup in his most recent start. However, in his 2 prior home starts he allowed only 2 earned runs on just 4 hits in 11 innings while striking out 12 batters! The Rays lineup does not have much experience against him which is a big edge here. Speaking of a lack of hitters' experience, the Mariners have never faced the Rays Shane McClanahan. The rookie southpaw has flashed great stuff this season and pitched much better than his linescore would indicate in his last start. McClanahan faced a White Sox team that is the best in the majors against southpaws and only 4 of the 7 hits left the infield! The lefty is undefeated in his 4 daytime starts this season and struck out 23 hits in 18 and 1 / 3 innings! Look for Gonzales to come up with another strong start at home here. He went 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his home starts last season. Gonzales also went 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA in day game starts last season. The Rays have the best bullpen in the American League. The Mariners bullpen has a solid 3.58 ERA in home games this season. Tampa Bay has lost 5 straight games and scored an average of only 3.6 runs per game and our computer math model projects a very strong outing for both Gonzales and McClanahan in this one. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8 that is posted at most books as of late morning Sunday. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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06-19-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on Run Line over Arizona, Saturday at 10:10 PM ET - The DBacks continue their free fall with another loss last night. They have now won just 5 of their last 43 games and they’ve lost 15 straight games overall! Arizona sends Matt Peacock to the mound and we expect his recent struggles to continue. He is 0-3 with a 7.15 ERA this month and has averaged less than 4 innings per start in June. That should give the DBacks poor bullpen plenty of work which isn’t a good thing. The Arizona relievers have allowed 300 hits and 43 homers this season, both near the very top in MLB and those, of course, are categories teams do not want to be leaders in! Meanwhile the Dodgers will start Walker Buehler who is 6-0 on the season and undefeated in his last 23 regular season starts! Buehler has an ERA of just 2.38 in his 13 starts this season! The Dodgers have won all 5 games vs the Diamondbacks this season by a combined score of 22-6. Going back further, the DBacks have won just 10 of last 34 meetings with the Dodgers. LA has won 8 of last 10 games and 7 of the 8 wins were by at least 2 runs. Also, 14 of Arizona’s last 18 losses have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge as well, we’ll back the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line Saturday night. |
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06-18-21 | Twins v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
#969/970 ASA play on: OVER 8.5 Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers, 8:05 PM ET - Jose Berrios has been the Twins most consistent starter this season by far and is a fantastic pitcher. However, when he has struggled through the years it has tended to be on the road and his starts at Texas have been no exception. In his last two outings (both on the road) against the Rangers, Berrios has been rocked for 8 earned runs in 8 and 1 / 3 innings. The Twins right-hander allowed 5 homers in those two starts. None of the Rangers last 5 games have resulted in an under and Texas has averaged scoring 5.5 runs in its last four games. The point is that it will not be surprising to see Berrios have some struggles in this match-up. However, the good news for Berrios (and for Twins fans) is that he should get plenty of run support in this one! Minnesota will be able to tee off against a struggling Mike Foltneywicz. The Rangers right-hander has allowed 12 earned runs on 16 hits in 6 and 1 / 3 innings with 5 home runs surrendered in his last three starts. Also, against the Twins, Foltneywicz has 3 career starts and all resulted in an over and he compiled a 6.32 ERA in those outings. Though some of that is a few years back, in terms of current form this season, Foltneywicz is truly having a rough time. This includes the Texas righty going 1-4 with a 6.88 ERA and .336 BAA in his night starts this season. Look for the over to improve to 7-3 in the Twins last 10 games with a high-scoring one tonight. This total is in the 8.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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06-17-21 | Cubs v. Mets -123 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Mets -120 over Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - While it may seem like there is not a pitching edge here there is, in fact, a "hidden" edge to the Mets. The Cubs are starting Kyle Hendricks and he has been strong over his last 6 starts and 4 of those were on the road where he typically struggles. Though he has had overall success in those recent starts, 2 of the 4 road starts were at Pittsburgh and Detroit which of course are two of the weaker teams in the majors. Despite some recent success, Hendricks is still getting hit at a .290 clip in road starts this season, a .287 clip away from home last season, and a .290 clip in 2019 on the road. While Hendricks is quite hittable away from home as you can see given those numbers, Marcus Stroman of the Mets has been fantastic this season. Also, Stroman is pitching for a Mets team that is now 20-6 in home games after yesterday's 6-3 win dropped the Cubs to 14-20 in road games this season. Stroman has a 2.33 ERA this season and that improves to a 1.88 ERA when he is at home. The Mets are 4-1 in his home starts this season and Hendricks, on the other hand, gave up 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work in his last start at New York. The home team is a perfect 6-0 in the 6 meetings between these teams this season. Not only that, the Cubs are overall 3-7 in their last 10 road games. The Mets are 8-2 last 10 games overall and our computer math model reflects a home blowout is likely here. We will grab the home team (and hotter team!) with the "hidden" pitching edge on the mound at a fantastic price on the money line in this one and bet New York Mets -120 |
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06-16-21 | Orioles v. Indians OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA top play on 10* OVER 7.5 Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Indians, 7:10 PM ET - This total was 8.5 and has dropped to a 7.5 and this is still American League baseball and this move seems awfully aggressive. We will take advantage of the line value being offered by the betting markets here. The Orioles Keegin Akin faced the Indians lineup earlier this month. Cleveland's Aaron Civale faced the Baltimore lineup earlier this month. The hitters just saw these pitchers and, though Civale has solid overall numbers, the Orioles got to him for 4 earned runs and hit 3 homers in that match-up. Akin was more successful in his start but he was also fortunate and gave up quite a few hard hit balls. Also, that start was at home for Akin but now he faces the Indians on the road and he has a 1.73 WHIP in his two road outings this season and has been in some jams as a result of too many hits and walks. The Indians, off a 7-2 win yesterday, will make Akin pay for putting too many guys on base in this rematch. There has only been one under in the last four games between these teams and these four games have averaged 13.25 runs per game. Cleveland has scored an average of 6 runs per game their last 9 games. Only 2 of the Orioles last 9 games have been unders and Baltimore has averaged scoring 5 runs per game during this stretch. This total is in the 7.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting close to or possibly even into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 4 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 9 runs (5-4 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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06-15-21 | Pirates v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Pirates have lost 8 straight games and have scored an average of only 2.5 runs per game during this losing streak. The Nationals have seen 10 of their last 12 games stay under the total. Washington has scored an average of only 2.2 runs per game in those 10 match-ups that stayed under the total. 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams at DC have stayed under the total. Looking at the full season ERA numbers for these two pitchers it may seem contrarian to be on the under but this play is about more than just a pair of struggling lineups. Let's talk about those starting pitchers. Tyler Anderson has held opponents to a paltry .220 batting average while striking out 32 in 29 and 2/3 innings spanning his 5 road starts this season. Patrick Corbin has an amazing 0.41 ERA over his last 3 starts against Pittsburgh and has struck out 27 while allowing just 10 hits in 22 innings spanning those 3 starts against the Pirates. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Tuesday. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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06-14-21 | Cubs v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets, 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs are off a low-scoring 2-0 win at home versus the Cardinals last night. The Mets are off a 7-3 home loss to the Padres which went over the total. 9 of New York's 13 games dating to late May have resulted in an over. The Cubs Jake Arrieta has seen his starts lead to a high percentage of unders this season but this has truly been an anomaly and is highly unlikely to continue. Prior to a rare strong start in his last outing, Arrieta had an 8.28 ERA over his 6 preceding starts. On the road this season the veteran right-hander has a 6.40 ERA in 7 starts. David Peterson gets the start for the Mets but it is certainly not based on merit as his days in the rotation could be numbered. Peterson is having a very rough time with a 1-5 record and 6.32 ERA on the season. Things have not been improving for the Mets southpaw either as he has a 9.88 ERA over his last four starts. The Cubs have won 5 straight games and will have plenty of confidence against Peterson as they averaged 6.3 runs in the first 4 games of their hot streak. Last night's Cubs game was a pitchers duel but you can see why this one will be anything but that. Also, Peterson had a rough start at Chicago earlier this season and now faces the Cubs at home where he has allowed 6 earned runs in 7 and 2 / 3 innings his past two starts. Couple that with Arrieta's long-term struggles (his last start notwithstanding) and this should be a highly entertaining game with plenty of fireworks. . This total is in the 9 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over |
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06-13-21 | Angels v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have been the worst team in baseball this season but the over trend in their games continues and this is the perfect spot for another one. Arizona actually has the #1 slugging percentage, .445, in day games this season. Also, the Diamondbacks rank in the top ten in the majors for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching and in home games. That being said, there is solid value here in going against Patrick Sandoval of the Angels. He has some good numbers this season but those have come at home. He did have one road start and was successful in that one but he got hit harder than you would think just from looking at the box score and Sandoval had to work out of multiple jams in that one. In his only road appearance out of the bullpen this season he got hit hard. Last season Sandoval was 1-4 with a 6.87 ERA on the road. In the prior year, his rookie season, he was winless in 5 games (4 starts) on the road and had a 6.52 ERA. The over is a perfect 8-0 in Arizona's last 8 home games. The Diamondbacks have scored an average of 5.6 runs in those games. Arizona has allowed an average of 6.2 runs per game in those home contests. With Jon Duplantier getting the start here, those runs against numbers are unlikely to improve! Duplantier is winless with a 10.03 ERA in his 3 starts this season. His only prior MLB experience was in 2019 when he pitched in 15 games and opponents hit .283 against him. He has labored this season and Duplantier has yet to complete 5 innings in a start. Considering the Diamondbacks bullpen has a 4.62 ERA and a majors-worst .271 BAA, that spells trouble for Arizona in this one. The Diamondbacks are on a 5-32 run but they can hit Sandoval here and that is why the over is the play. Arizona gives up tons of runs but they can score plenty too especially in a day game at home. Also, the Angels hot bats have helped lead the way to an 8-2 run in which Los Angeles has scored an average of 7.4 runs in the 8 victories. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over |
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06-12-21 | Astros -106 v. Twins | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
#973 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -110 over Minnesota Twins, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - The Twins are getting plenty of respect here because Jose Berrios is on the mound. That is why, despite the Astros being the much hotter team of late, this game is priced in nearly a pick'em price range. Berrios is coming off a start in which he allowed 4 earned runs. While that start was on the road and you might expect him to now be much better at home, this has simply not been the case for Berrios this season. The Minnesota right-hander has allowed 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 home starts! On the season, Berrios has an unimpressive 4.71 ERA in his home starts and opponents are hitting .270 against him at Target Field. The Astros counter with Luis Garcia here. The right-hander is 5-0 in his last 5 starts and allowed a total of only 6 earned runs in those 5 starts! Adding to the value in this spot is that Houston's lineup has hitters with some strong experience against Berrios. The Twins, on the other hand, have just one hitter with experience (Simmons 0 for 2) against Garcia. Not only that, the Twins are overall 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Astros are 9-3 last 12 games overall and our computer math model reflects a road rout is likely here. We will grab the road team (and hotter team!) with the "hidden" pitching edge on the mound at a fantastic price on the money line in this one and bet Houston Astros -110 |
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06-11-21 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
#912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Brewers are a huge money line favorite here with good reason. The Pirates have lost 4 straight games and 7 of 10. On the road this season Pittsburgh is 10-19 and the Bucs have gone just 11-23 against teams with a winning record. Of course this is part of the reason that Milwaukee is such a big favorite here and note too that the Brewers have won 11 of 13 games. The value here is on the run line because of course we are not going to suggest laying the massive money line price here. By laying the 1.5 runs on the Brewers, we get their price range down into the -135 area and 25 of Milwaukee's 35 wins this season have come by 2+ runs. Also, an incredible 32 of the Pirates 38 losses have been by a multiple-run margin. Pittsburgh also is just 7-19 in divisional games. The Pirates start Chase DeJong here and he gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings and allowed 3 homers in his most recent start and this was against the Marlins. He is inexperienced at the MLB level. The Brewers start Brandon Woodruff and he is off a rare subpar outing and will bounce back here as he has been phenomenal this season. Woodruff has a 1.42 ERA on the season with a 0.74 WHIP and Milwaukee is 5-1 in his home starts. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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06-10-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET - This total opened up at an 8 yesterday and is now up to a 9 this morning. This is despite the fact that each of these teams have trended under recently. What this tells us of course is that some sharp action is coming in on the over in this one and this game was already on our radar for a potential play Thursday and now it is go time. Chicago's Dallas Keuchel has a 4.81 ERA in home starts this season and the O/U is 4-2 in those outings. He has a respectable ERA last 3 starts but has given up 19 hits in the 15 innings over those 3 starts. Also, Keuchel has given up 4 homers in his last 2 starts and both of those games went over the total. The O/U is 3-0 in Hyun Jin Ryu's last 3 starts. In this battle of southpaws, the Blue Jays left-hander is likely to struggle. The White Sox are one of the top hitting and top slugging teams in the majors when facing lefties. Also, Ryu is off a very rough start against the Astros in which he allowed 6 earned runs in 5 and 2 / 3 innings and only struck out one while walking three. That game was at home and now Ryu is on the road where he has trended with higher ERA's than at home in each of his last 4 seasons and that trend holding true this season as well. The Blue Jays have scored an average of 5.4 runs in 5 most recent road games. The White Sox have averaged scoring 6.7 runs a game this season in games against left-handed starters. This total is in the 9 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over |
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06-09-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, 7:10 PM ET - We already had our eyes on this one based on the pitching match-up and now a couple of other factors solidified this play. Yesterday's game was 7-1 through 4 innings and stayed that way! As a result the game stayed under the total even though the teams had 8 runs through the first 4 frames. We like coming back with overs a day after a game like that. Another factor we like here is that it will be another very warm day today in Boston so good weather for an over is expected this evening at Fenway Park. Back to the pitching match-up which had us eyeing this game, the Red Sox start Nathan Eovaldi here and he has a 4.47 ERA at home this season which is more than 2 runs higher than what he has produced in road games this season. Now he takes on a surging Astros team that has won 7 of 9 games and has scored an average of 6.2 runs in the last 10 games. Though the Red Sox lost yesterday and managed just 1 run, this was on the heels of a 5-game winning streak in which they produced 5.6 runs per game. Tonight Boston will take advantage of facing a struggling Jake Odorizzi. He only recently came back from an injury and his overall struggles this season have continued. He is 0-3 with a 7.16 ERA in his five starts. In limited action last season, Odorizzi also was winless and he had a 6.59 ERA in four starts. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over |
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06-08-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox -141 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago White Sox -140 over Toronto Blue Jays, Tuesday at 8:105 PM ET - The White Sox are slugging .469 versus left-handed pitching this season and that is the best slugging percentage in the majors against lefties. The Blue Jays are starting southpaw Robbie Ray in this one and he has given up 2 homers in each of his last 4 road starts! Ray is 0-4 in 11 games (10 starts) on the road the past two seasons with a 6.27 ERA away from home. He will be no match for Chicago's Carlos Rodon in this one. Rodon has rounded into top form this season. The lefty has been fantastic both home and away but what is particularly amazing is that Rodon has held the opposition to a .124 batting average in his home starts while striking out 34 in 26 and 2 / 3 innings. The White Sox are 23-10 in home games this season and also 23-10 in night games this season plus a fantastic 13-4 versus left-handed starters. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are 5-7 against lefties this season! Toronto also has a losing record in night games this season. The Jays are overall 5-4 last 9 games but went 0-2 in games against lefty starters during this stretch. The White Sox are 7-1 last 8 home games and our computer math model reflects a home blowout is likely here. We will grab the home team with a strong pitching edge on the mound at a reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet Chicago White Sox -140 |
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06-06-21 | Astros +103 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-3 | Win | 103 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
#967 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -100 over Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET - The Astros are hitting .281 versus left-handed pitching this season and that is the best batting average in the majors against lefties. The Blue Jays are starting southpaw Steven Matz in this one and Toronto is 1-3 in his home starts this season. Matz has a 1.74 WHIP and a 5.22 ERA in games off a home mound this season. Matz did beat the Astros 4 weeks ago at Houston but was fortunate as he certainly did not dominate. Matz allowed 3 earned runs on 8 hits in 5 innings. He will be no match for the Astros Luis Garcia in this one. Garcia is 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 4 starts as he has rounded into top form. Garcia has held the opposition to a .188 batting average in his 16 appearances (10 starts) at the MLB level. The Astros are off a 6-2 loss here yesterday but had won 5 of 6 prior to that and this included a big 13 to 1 win in the first game of this series. The Blue Jays had lost 7 of 9 home games dating back to May 19th before coming up with the big win yesterday. Look for the Astros to bounce right back from yesterday's loss with a big win here. We will grab the road team with a strong pitching edge on the mound at a great price on the money line in this one and bet Houston -100 |
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06-05-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
#916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs (-115) over Detroit Tigers, Saturday at 2:10 PM ET - The White Sox got the win yesterday and should do the same here but this time by a multiple-run margin. Detroit has now lost 19 of 29 road games this season including 5 of the last 6. Chicago is 22-9 at home this season and also 13-3 this season against left-handed starters. The White Sox lead the majors when facing southpaws with a .358 on base percentage and a .478 slugging percentage and the Sox .278 batting average against left-handed pitching is 2nd only to the Astros out of all 30 MLB teams. The Tigers are starting Tarik Skubal here. Detroit is 2-7 in his starts this season. Skubal is off of a better outing in his most recent start but that was at home and he has struggled on the road in each of his first two seasons in the majors. Last year Skubal went 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA in his 6 away games - 5 starts. This season Skubal is 1-3 with a 7.46 ERA in his 4 starts away from home thus far. That said, a road start against a team known for crushing lefties is unlikely to serve him well. The White Sox starter in this one is Lucas Giolito. He is very consistent and has held opponents to a batting average of .205, .184, .202 in the 2019, 2020, 2021 seasons. In the last 162 game regular season (2019), Giolito went 7-3 with a 2.16 ERA and .163 BAA in day game outings. Prior to yesterday's high-scoring loss, Detroit had been held to 3 or less runs in 6 of its last 9 games. The White Sox have won 9 of last 12 games and scored an average of 5.8 runs per game in the 9 victories. The average score of those games was 5.8 to 2.9 and this should be another big win as well as Detroit drops to 1-6 last 7 road games. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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06-04-21 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8:10 PM ET – The Diamondbacks Matt Peacock has been impressive. His most recent outing was a quality start and this followed a strong start against a tough Dodgers team at Los Angeles. In fact, Peacock has been very strong on the road this season with a 0.79 ERA in 4 games (1 start) away from home this season. The Brewers lost Lorenzo Cain to injury recently and though his numbers had been down this season he had been heating up since mid-May. Another injury situation came up last night with Kolten Wong exiting the game in the 4th inning. Milwaukee did get the big win last night but managed only 7 hits and the injury issues are not helping matters for a team averaging just 3.7 runs per game at home this season. The Diamondbacks did pile up hits yesterday but that is unlikely to be the case again tonight. The Brewers start Freddy Peralta here and he has been fantastic. Peralta is 5-1 with a 2.38 ERA this season while striking out 83 in 56 and 2 / 3 innings while allowing only 28 hits. Also, this will be the first start these pitchers are making against these opponents so there is little to no familiarity for the hitters against these pitchers. The Diamondbacks will struggle against Peralta and the Brewers last 4 games when facing a right-handed starter have seen them total only 18 hits! That is an average of 4.5 hits per game when facing a right-handed starter! Milwaukee, before yesterday, had totaled just 4 runs in the last 3 games against right-handed starters! That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Friday. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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06-03-21 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 114 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs (+115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 7:40 PM ET - Amazingly, a month ago on May 2nd, the Diamondbacks were 15-13 so they had a slight winning record on the season. This team has since lost 24 of 29 games! On the year, Arizona is 12-28 in night games, 3-11 versus left-handed starters, 9-21 in road games, and 4-20 in games against teams with a winning record. The Brewers should dominate this one. Arizona is starting Jon Duplantier. The Diamondbacks young lefty has pitched in 16 MLB games (4 starts) and has a 4.79 ERA with opponents hitting .288 against him and he has a 1.60 WHIP. Duplantier will unlikely be able to match the Brewers Brett Anderson. The Diamondbacks have not faced Anderson in 6 years so that is a big edge for him. Also, Arizona is hitting .208 in road games this season which is one of the worst marks in the majors. Anderson went 11-5 with a 3.09 ERA in night games in 2019 and in 2020 he went 4-2 with a 3.60 ERA in evening action. He has a 3.38 ERA in home games this season. The Brewers were off yesterday after losing Tuesday's game. Milwaukee was on an 8-2 run prior to that defeat and should bounce right back here against one of the coldest teams in the majors right now. Per our computer math model a home blowout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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06-02-21 | Mets v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 3:40 PM ET - The Diamondbacks Madison Bumgarner has a 9.90 ERA his last two starts. The Mets David Peterson is winless with a 5.55 ERA in his 5 road starts this season. The pitching match-up sets up well for plenty of runs here. New York O/U is 4-0 the last 4 games. Arizona O/U is 5-0 the last 5 games. The Mets have averaged 7 runs per game over the last 4 games. The Diamondbacks have averaged 5.4 runs per game over the last 5 games. Peterson faced the Diamondbacks four weeks ago and allowed 3 earned runs in less than 2 innings on the mound. In 2 of his last 3 starts Bumganer walked 4 in just 4 innings in each start. Overall, Bumgarner has been hit hard in each of the last two starts. The Mets bullpen has a 4.10 ERA on the road this season which ranks them in the middle of the rankings in the majors. In other words, nothing special, and the Diamondbacks bullpen has a 5.16 ERA at home this season which ranks their bullpen as one of the worst in the majors. In fact, the .281 BAA for Arizona's bullpen in home games is the worst in the majors. In terms of the lineups here, Arizona is hitting .266 at home this season which is #1 in the National League. The Mets, as noted above, have been heating up at the plate again and have reached 13 hits in 2 of last 3 games. Bet Over |
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06-01-21 | Twins -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Minnesota Twins -1.5 runs (-110) over Baltimore Orioles, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - A lot working in our favor with this one. Minnesota has beaten Baltimore 16 straight times! Additionally, the Orioles enter this game on a current 14-game losing streak! The Twins 3-2 win in extra innings yesterday was a rare 1-run loss for Baltimore as 11 of the 13 that preceded it all came by a margin of 2 or more runs. It has been a dreadful run for the Orioles and we look for the Twins to beat them for a 17th straight time in this one. Though Minnesota is down a couple of players for this one, those include the left-handed bats of Arraez and Kepler who do not hit lefties well anyway. They would have been unlikely to excel against left-hander Bruce Zimmerman anyway. That said, the rest of the Twins lineup is likely to pound the southpaw. He has been hit hard in all but one of his last 8 starts. Overall on the season Zimmerman is getting hit at a .300 clip in home games and a .355 clip in night games! He's facing a Twins team that has a slugging percentage ranking in the top ten in the majors against southpaw pitching and, again, neither Arraez or Kepler helped that number. Additionally, the Twins start a red hot Michael Pineda here. He has a 2.62 ERA and 0.99 WHIP on the season! To put that in proper perspective, Zimmerman has a 5.52 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his home starts this season. Also, the Orioles are an ugly 1-7 in Zimmerman's starts this season. That drops to 1-8 after this one as Baltimore's overall struggles (plus losing streak to the Twins) continue here. Per our computer math model a road rout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Minnesota Twins -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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05-31-21 | Angels v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants, 4:05 PM ET - Total opened up at an 8.5 and has moved to an 8 which is likely due to the Angels recent under trending. That being said, based on this pitching match-up the value is very large here with the over 8 after the line move. The Giants Johnny Cueto has a 6.23 ERA with opponents hitting .382 against him in the month of May. This has encompassed his 4 starts since returning from injury and clearly Cueto is "not right" since coming back. Speaking of "not right", the Angels Dylan Bundy is winless in his 9 starts this season. Also, Bundy is 0-2 with a 15.84 ERA in his last 3 starts so his current form, just like Cueto's, is concerning to say the least. Some line value being offered here because it is the Angels recent under trend that pushed this total down some but their bats should have no trouble getting to a struggling Cueto. At the same time, Bundy is highly unlikely to shut down a red hot Giants lineup. San Francisco is 6-3-1 to the over and has scored an average of 6.8 runs per game in the last 10 games. The Angels, despite 4 straight unders, have scored 4 or more runs in 5 of the last 7 games. Getting this game to 4-4 would lead to at least a 5-4 final and a winning ticket for us. Given all of the above we expect both teams to reach that number in this one. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-30-21 | Orioles v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs (-115) over Baltimore Orioles, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - A double-header sweep for the White Sox yesterday and they won both games by a multiple-run margin and should do the same here. Baltimore has now lost 12 straight games. Chicago is 19-9 at home this season and also 12-3 this season against left-handed starters. The White Sox lead the majors when facing southpaws with a .359 on base percentage and a .471 slugging percentage and the Sox .279 batting average against left-handed pitching is 2nd only to the Astros out of all 30 MLB teams. Keegan Akin is a southpaw getting the start here for the Orioles. It his first start of this season but he has a 6.10 ERA this season working out of the bullpen. Last season Akin was used more as a starter and in 5 road appearances (4 starts), Akin went winless with a 7.30 ERA. That said, a road start against a team known for crushing lefties is unlikely to serve him well. The White Sox starter in this one is Lucas Giolito. He is very consistent and has held opponents to a batting average of .205, .184, .211 in the 2019, 2020, 2021 seasons. In the last 162 game regular season (2019), Giolito went 7-3 with a 2.16 ERA and .163 BAA in day game outings. Baltimore is averaging just 2.5 runs per game last 6 games. The White Sox have won 5 of last 6 games and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in the 5 victories. The average score of those games was 5.6 to 2.0 and this should be another big win as well as Baltimore drops to 0-13 last 13 games. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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05-29-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (+110) over San Francisco Giants, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - The Giants got the better of the Dodgers yesterday but Los Angeles has a huge pitching edge Saturday and will take advantage of that for a blowout win. The Dodgers Julio Urias is 7-1 with a 3.03 ERA this season. He has a 2.20 ERA in his career against the Giants and just handcuffed them on dominating stuff in a 6-inning start at San Francisco last week in which he gave up only 3 hits while striking out 10. The Giants are hitting just .204 this season in games against left-handed starters. The Dodgers are averaging 5.7 runs in games against right-handed starters and face a pitcher today who could be less than 100% healthy. Getting the start for the Giants here is Logan Webb and he missed his last start due to a right shoulder strain. Now Webb faces a Dodgers team that got to him for 5 earned runs in less than 4 innings when he made his most recent start against them last season. Also, Webb is coming off a win in his most recent road start but he had been 0-3 on the season in his 4 road starts with a 7.58 ERA before coming up big last time out. His long-term numbers tell the full story and his shoulder may not be 100%. The Dodgers, prior to yesterday's loss, had won 13 of last 16 games and 10 of the 13 victories were by a margin of 2+ runs. This should be another big win as well as LA improves to 5-0 the last 5 times they were at home and coming off a loss. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this immediate revenge situation. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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05-28-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 7.5 Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland A's, 9:40 PM ET - Angels starter Shohei Ohtani will start here after yesterday's planned start for him was scratched by traffic trouble on the way to the stadium. His velocity was down in his most recent start and he was fortunate to only allow 2 earned runs. Ohtani gave up 5 hits and walked 2 and this was in under 5 innings of work. That start was at home and though his prior road outing was a good one, Ohtani gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his road start previous to that one. He is known for having control troubles at times. A's starter Sean Manaea is also likely to give up plenty here to a potent Angels lineup. Manaea just faced Los Angeles and was successful but now they get to see him again in his very next start. This tends to be an edge for the hitters and he had allowed 10 earned runs on 20 hits in only 8 innings over his last two starts prior to that most recent start. Also, prior to a strong outing versus LA, he had allowed 8 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings combined in his two most recent starts versus the Angels. Even without Mike Trout (currently out with an injury), the Angels have plenty of big sticks in the lineup that can do damage against a struggling Manaea who had been very hittable of late. The over was 9-2 last 11 Angels games prior to yesterday's staying under in a rare shutout loss for Los Angeles. Today's game very likely to make up for that shortfall yesterday with an exciting game reaching double digits in runs scored per our computer math model. Oakland was on an 8-3 run to the over last 11 games before yesterday's under and the A's have consistently scored an average of 5 runs per game in recent weeks. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-27-21 | Cardinals +101 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-4 | Win | 101 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
#961 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals +100 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The Diamondbacks jumped out to a 4-0 lead against the Giants yesterday and still found a way to blow the game and lose their 10th straight! Arizona lost 5-4 and now will have their hands full with facing a tough pitcher in this spot. Carlos Martinez came back from a short stint out with an injury and looked like he was back in top form. Martinez is a high-caliber pitcher when healthy and he allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start. Martinez has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts! The only troublesome start was the one right before his stint on the DL. In other words, he has been in strong form for quite some time now. The Cardinals, currently the top team in the standings in the Central Division, certainly have the overall team edge here over a Diamondbacks team occupying the basement in the West. Additionally they have the pitching edge with Martinez over the rookie Matt Peacock. The Arizona right-hander has particularly struggled at Chase Field. At home this season, Peacock has a 9.28 ERA in 6 games (1 start). Peacock has allowed 4 homers in less than 11 innings at Chase Field. Martinez has allowed only 1 homer in 24 innings on the road this season. The price here, per our computer math model, could absolutely be much higher than the opening range of -120 as of early Thursday morning. That being said, we'll take the extra value as the line moved to a +100 as of late morning Thursday! This one will be all Cardinals per our computer math model. We will grab the road team with a strong pitching edge on the mound at a great "no juice" price on the money line in this one and bet ST LOUIS +100 |
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05-26-21 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 7:40 PM ET – Chris Paddack is rounding back into form for the Padres and has a 1.38 ERA this month and averaging nearly a strikeout per inning in May. The first two games of this series snuck over the total. Monday's game was 5-0 going to the top of the 9th but miraculously went over the total when San Diego scored 3 in the top of the 9th. Yesterday's game also got over the total, just barely, but this was despite the teams combining for only 7 hits in the game! It was another strange result where a game went over the total that should not have. That has been the story in each of the first two games of this series and we see that coming to an end here. The Brewers have had one big game at the plate in their last 6 home games but, in the other 5 games as a host Milwaukee has scored an average of only 2 runs per game. After getting just 2 hits in yesterday's game, the Brewers will struggle again here versus a tough Padres starting pitcher. Speaking of tough pitchers, Eric Lauer is projected to come up strong here against his former team. Lauer is coming off a dominating start at the AAA level where he struck out 12 in 5 scoreless innings! This season he has a 2.87 ERA with the Brewers and wants to make the most of this outing against the team that he started his career with. San Diego has a .364 slugging percentage against lefties this season and that is one of the worst marks in the majors as the Padres rank 24th. This will be the Padres first time facing their former teammate. As for Paddack, he has a 1.80 ERA in his two starts against the Brewers in his career. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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05-25-21 | Indians -144 v. Tigers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Indians -145 over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Indians have won 4 of 6 after yesterday's win over the Tigers which was Detroit's 3rd straight loss. Tarik Skubal gets the start for the Tigers here and is winless in 3 starts in his career against Cleveland. That includes two starts earlier this season in which he allowed 8 earned runs in 9 and 1 / 3 innings. Aaron Civale gets the start in this one and the Indians are 6-0 in his starts against Detroit in his career. Civale has received the decision in five of those wins and that includes both of them earlier this season over Skubal and the Tigers. Civale has a 2.39 ERA and miniscule 0.80 WHIP against Detroit in his career. Overall this season he has been the much better pitcher with a 6-1 record and a 3.30 ERA. Skubal is 1-6 with a 5.45 ERA this season! Though he is off a better start in his most recent outing, Skubal simply can not be trusted and this is particularly true against a team which has proven to give him trouble. Speaking of giving trouble, the Indians have won 30 of the last 36 games when facing the Tigers and the price here could absolutely be much higher than the current range of -145 as of early Tuesday morning. That being said, we'll take it! This one will be all Indians per our computer math model. We will grab the road team with a strong pitching edge on the mound at a reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet CLEVELAND -145 |
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05-24-21 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 7 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 7:40 PM ET – The Brewers have struggled against lefties this season and are hitting only .224 against southpaws. Milwaukee is just 2-6 against left-handed starters this season and has averaged only 2.5 runs per game in those 8 games. Facing Blake Snell is unlikely to help matters for Milwaukee. Since he pitched in the AL for the Rays for many seasons, Snell has an edge here in that the Brewers hitters have very little experience against him in their lineup. Snell has had great stuff all season again this year but had struggled with command earlier in the campaign. He seems to be turning the corner now and his dominating stuff has led to 18 strikeouts in 10 innings in his last two starts. Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff is winless in his last 4 starts but gets a league low run support from his teammates! So he has pitched very well but generally gets very little support from his teammates at the plate and, as you can see, that is likely to continue here as Snell could dominate. The good news for the Brewers is Woodruff has been incredible on the mound this season with a 1.58 ERA and opponents hitting just .145 against him in his 9 starts this season! The Padres have been hot at the plate but the under is a perfect 3-0 in Woodruff's 3 career starts against San Diego and he has allowed only 1 earned run in last 8 innings against them. That said, all signs point to another under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 4 to 5 runs and even if it reaches 6 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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05-23-21 | A's v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland A's, 4:07 PM ET - The Angels Dylan Bundy is 0-5 with a 6.02 ERA on the season. He also is dealing with a foot issue. Despite the foot problem, it was announced on Friday that Bundy was cleared for this start and that is good news for the Oakland lineup! Bundy has given up 13 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts. He is simply not in good form right now and the Athletics have scored an average of 5.3 runs last 8 games. Yesterday's game was a 6-2 win for Oakland which barely stayed under the total. That ended a perfect 6-0 run to the over in Athletics games but that high-scoring trend likely to quickly resume here. A's starter Sean Manaea is also likely to give up plenty here to a potent Angels lineup. Manaea has allowed 10 earned runs on 20 hits in only 8 innings over his last two starts. He also allowed 8 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings combined in his two most recent starts versus the Angels. Even without Mike Trout (currently out with an injury), the Angels have plenty of big sticks in the lineup that can do damage against a struggling Manaea who has been very hittable of late. The over was 6-1 last 7 Angels games prior to yesterday's barely staying under. Today's game very likely to make up for that shortfall yesterday with an exciting game reaching double digits in runs scored per our computer math model. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-22-21 | Brewers v. Reds UNDER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET – The Reds have trended over this season but yesterday's game went over the total in spite of just 15 hits total in the game. Cincinnati has not hit lefties well this season. The Reds are hitting just .214 versus southpaws and this ranks them in the bottom third of the majors. Though the Brewers Brett Anderson is off a tough start he should bounce back strong here. Anderson's last 3 starts against the Reds were last season and all resulted in unders and the lefty gave up only 3 earned runs total in 12 innings over his last two starts versus Cincinnati. The Reds start Sonny Gray here and he loves pitching at home. Since coming to Cincinnati, Gray is 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA in 25 home starts! Also, in Gray's last two starts versus the Brewers he has a 0.90 ERA with 12 strikeouts in 10 innings. The Reds have not faced a left-handed starter in a long-time and that could make this match-up especially tough for them. As for the Brewers bats, they have only had one big game at the plate last 10 games! In the other 9 games the Brewers have averaged scoring only 2.1 runs per game! That said, all signs point to another under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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05-21-21 | Rays -144 v. Blue Jays | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
#967 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -145 over Toronto Blue Jays, Friday at 7:37 PM ET - The Rays have won 7 straight games and are on the road for this one. Tampa Bay has been better on the road than at home this season with a 15-7 record as travelers. This is also a revenge game for Tyler Glasnow. The ace of the Rays staff had his worst start of the season against the Blue Jays and it truly was not even that bad. Glasnow simply got hurt by a pair of homers but only allowed 3 other hits in an outing in which he struck out 10 in 6 innings! On the season Glasnow has held hitters to a .150 batting average and has a 2.35 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 57 and 1 / 3 innings! Anthony Kay starts for the Blue Jays and he has a 7.24 ERA this season and a 5.92 ERA in his 20 games (5 starts) at the MLB level. He is off a better outing, though only 4 innings, but it came against a Phillies team that is mired in a horrible slump. Now Kay, pitching with the added pressure of possibly losing his spot in the rotation, will face a Rays team on a 7-game winning streak thanks in large part to scoring an average of 9 runs per game during this hot streak! Tampa Bay is hitting a fantastic .351 last five games and will stay red hot at the plate here! You will rarely ever get the Rays in a -145 price range with Glasnow on the mound and with this many edges in a match-up. That being said, we'll take it! This one will be all Tampa Bay per our computer math model. We will grab the road team with their ace on the mound at a reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet TAMPA BAY -145 |
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05-20-21 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 10 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -119 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 10 Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals, 2:20 PM ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out toward left field or left-center field at about a 15 mph clip on a mild afternoon at Wrigley Field. Day games tend to get crazy with weather like this in Chicago at this time of year and the situation, based on this pitching match-up, is ideal for a back and forth high-scoring affair in this one. The Nationals start Joe Ross. The Washington right-hander has a 5.80 ERA this season and if he finishes the season north of a 5.00 ERA it will be his 4th straight year doing so! Ross just got rocked for 8 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start and this followed a start in which he was in a lot of jams because of 5 walks in 5 innings. Ross skipped the 2020 season and only made 3 starts in 2018. So to see some full season results on him you have to look more at his 2019 and 2017 stats. Well, in 2019 day games he was hit at a .312 clip. In 2017 afternoon games he was hit at a .328 clip! A day game with hitter-friendly weather at Wrigley Field is highly unlikely to help Ross. As for his counterpart, Trevor Williams, plenty of struggles are also expected. The Cubs right-hander has not even totaled 9 innings in his last 3 starts combined and he has been rocked for 10 runs on 15 hits in those short outings! Just like last season, opponents are hitting about .300 against Williams and he has gone a combined 4-10 with a 6.22 ERA since the start of the 2020 season. In 2019 he had a 5.38 ERA. Williams has a 9.00 ERA in 5 day starts this season and had a 10.24 ERA in his 2 afternoon starts last season! Washington is hitting .260 in road games this season and that is #1 in the National League. The Cubs have hit 32 homers at home to rank 4th in the majors in that category. With the wind blowing out, Chicago is very likely to add a few to that total today! We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-19-21 | Mets v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET – The Braves Charlie Morton has struggled at times this season but this is the perfect match-up for him to get back on track. The Mets lineup has been severely depleted by injuries. New York managed a tight 4-3 win yesterday but neither team hit the ball well. In fact, the under is perfect so far in this series and the Mets are averaging only 3 runs last 5 games. David Peterson starts for the Mets here and is off a very strong outing. He will also take advantage of facing a Braves team that ranks #25 out of 30 MLB teams against left-handed pitching with a poor .215 batting average. Peterson has allowed only 3 earned runs on just 8 hits while striking out 17 over his last 12 and 1 / 3 innings in his past two road starts. With the Braves likely to struggle to score runs and the Mets missing a lot of firepower in their lineup due to major injury issues, runs will be hard to come by in this one. Each of Atlanta's last 4 games against a left-handed starter has resulted in an under. That said, all signs point to another under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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05-18-21 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 7:45 PM ET – The Cardinals John Gant has a 1.83 ERA this season. The Pirates JT Brubaker has a 2.58 ERA this season. Brubaker has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his 7 starts and actually has allowed 1 earned run or less in the majority of his starts this season! Gant has allowed a total of 2 earned runs over his last 4 starts! The O/U is 5-14-2 in Pittsburgh's road games this season! The Pirates have scored an average of only 2.5 runs per game in the last 14 games! The Cardinals enter this game on a 1-4 run and the losses have had a lot to do with struggling at the plate as St Louis has scored an average of only 2.6 runs in those 5 games. With both bullpens having performed fairly well this season and also coming in after an off day Monday, the relievers are rested and ready for this one as well. In terms of opponents batting average, the Cardinals bullpen ranks #1 in the National League with a .198 BAA and the Pirates pen ranks 10th in the majors with a .217 BAA this season! 5 of Brubaker's 7 starts this season, including all 4 on the road, have resulted in an under. 6 of Gant's 7 starts this season, including all 3 at home, have resulted in an under! That said, all signs point to another under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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05-17-21 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 16-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 7:40 PM ET - These lineups just saw these pitchers Wednesday and they pounded them. We expect more of the same here. The White Sox saw Dallas Keuchel get rocked for 6 earned runs in less than 6 innings against the Twins. The Chicago southpaw has walked 4 while striking out just 2 over his last 2 starts. Yes a pitcher can pitch to contact and have success but not getting enough strikeouts can eventually catch up to you and this is particularly true when facing a team with power. The Twins certainly have some sluggers in their lineup and, even with Buxton currently out, these teams combined for 21 runs when Keuchel faced JA Happ last week. Happ, Twins southpaw, has been rocked in each of his last 3 starts against the White Sox with 19 earned runs allowed in 12 and 1 / 3 innings versus Chicago! The White Sox lead the majors in both batting average (.293) and slugging percentage (.480) against left-handed pitching this season! It will be very nice weather in Minneapolis for this one and the Twins have scored 11 runs on 19 hits the past two games as they wrapped up a home series against Oakland yesterday. Minnesota has a .434 slugging percentage versus lefties this season and that ranks 7th out of all 30 MLB teams. As for Keuchel, he historically pitches better at home than on the road. This season is still young and 2020 was a shortened season. Looking at his stats from 2015 to 2019 only one of the 5 seasons saw him pitch as well on the road as at home. In the other 4 seasons his ERA was a run higher in one season and 2 runs higher in the other 3 seasons. In none of the 5 seasons was he better on the road than at home. Keuchel likely to again struggle against the Twins here, especially since this one is at Target Field, but also look for the White Sox potent lineup to continue its dominance of left-hand pitching and pound Happ again! The White Sox have scored at least 8 runs in 4 of the last 6 road games. Chicago also has scored an average of 8.7 runs per game in going 3-0 against Minnesota this season. With the Twins now at home for the series rematch, we look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-16-21 | Marlins v. Dodgers -138 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -138 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -140 over Miami Marlins, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - This line has dropped considerably from its opener and that has put the Dodgers money line in a very playable range here. The reason for the drop is because Pablo Lopez occasionally comes up with big starts for the Marlins plus the Dodgers are using an opener for this start as it is a bullpen game and also LA's Corey Seager got hurt in yesterday's game. However, lets now address each of these items as, the fact is, all of the above has led to phenomenal line value on Los Angeles at home. Miami's Lopez is known for getting roughed up on the road and has allowed 6 earned runs in 2 of his 4 road starts this season. His road struggles should not come as a surprise. In 2018 Lopez had a 4.84 ERA on the road and he followed this up with a 7.36 ERA on the road in 2019 and a 4.91 ERA away from home last season. All of these stats pale in comparison to his success at home. In other words, fading Lopez on the road is the best way to go and though the Dodgers have a couple injury issues (including Seager) anyone in baseball would take their existing lineup over the current Marlins lineup any day! As for this being a bullpen game with Jimmy Nelson as an opener, note that the Dodgers bullpen is in good shape after they got a fantastic 7 inning start from Trevor Bauer yesterday. Also, the LA bullpen has a 2.72 ERA at home this season! Overall the Dodgers are 12-5 at home this season while the Marlins are 3-9 in day games this season! Also, Miami has lost 6 of 8 games while LA is on a 4-game winning streak. You will rarely ever get the Dodgers at home in a -140 price range with this many edges in a match-up and we'll take it! This one will be all Dodgers per our computer math model. We will grab the home team at a reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet LA DODGERS -140 |
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05-15-21 | Phillies -136 v. Blue Jays | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -136 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
#979 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -137 over Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 7:37 PM ET - Great line value spot here with Aaron Nola and the Phillies. Nola has lesser numbers in recent starts but is coming off a game in which he lasted a career-low 58 pitches. Coming off a tough start like that, there is no doubt that Nola is highly motivated to get back on track here and he faces a Blue Jays lineup that is not familiar with him. The result is excellent line value here as this line has dropped from the -150 range to the -135 range and this is essentially ignoring the fact that the Phillies have a big pitching edge here. Nola is considered the Phillies ace and Toronto is countering with a guy that is their #5 in the rotation and also very likely to soon be losing his rotation spot. Anthony Kay has a 6.45 ERA in his career and is winless in his 3 appearances (2 starts) this season and has a 10.24 ERA with opponents hitting .350 against him. The Phillies enter this game having won 8 of 11 games and the Jays are 0-3 this season in games in which Kay has pitched. With yesterday's Philadelphia win to open up the series, the road team has now prevailed in 7 of Toronto's last 9 games. We fully expect that road team trend to continue here behind a strong bounce back start from Nola and more troubles for Kay! This one will be all Phillies per our computer math model. We will grab the road team at a reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet PHILADELPHIA -137 |
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05-14-21 | Cubs -127 v. Tigers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
#927 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs -130 over Detroit Tigers, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Tigers have won 4 straight games but that has a lot to do with playing a Royals team that has now lost 11 straight games! That said, one should be reminded that Detroit had a 9-24 record on the season prior to sweeping Kansas City. Also, the Cubs had a winning record on the season before they suddenly dropped 3 straight games. This has led to fantastic line value in this spot as one can bet the Cubs at a very short price over a Tigers team that is now getting a little too much respect from the betting markets. This is particularly true when you consider the pitching match-up in this one. The Cubs Jake Arrieta is now back from an injury (cut on thumb of throwing arm) that led to an ugly start against the Reds. Arrieta had entered that start with a 2.57 ERA in five starts! He is likely to be back in top form here after allowing the thumb to heal up. The Tigers counter with winless Tarik Skubal in this one. The Detroit southpaw is 0-5 on the season with a 5.67 ERA and he faces a Cubs team that is 7-3 against left-handed starters this season. This one will be all Cubs per our computer math model. We will grab the road team at a reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet CHICAGO CUBS -130 |
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05-13-21 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Houston vs Texas, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET – The Astros start Cristan Javier here. Even though he is off what appears to be a very ugly start, he allowed only 4 hits in 5 innings but 2 of them were homers. Overall, Javier has held hitters to a .183 batting average in his career and his most recent start was the first time this season he had allowed an earned run at home. Javier had given up zero earned runs on 8 hits in 17 innings of work while striking out 22 batters. This home dominance is nothing new as, last season, in his rookie year he went 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA and held hitters to a .135 batting average and this was in 6 games (5 starts) at home. The Rangers Mike Foltneywicz will also be geared up for a strong start here as he faces the team that drafted him and he faces them in Houston too. He has an edge here as the Astros batters, all except one, have no experience against him. When Foltneywicz is on and facing opponents not use to his offerings he is a tough customer and we expect that to be the case again here. The under has cashed in 4 straight times in Rangers road games. The Astros have only averaged scoring 3.3 runs per game in Javier's last 3 starts as he has not received much run support. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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05-12-21 | Twins v. White Sox -135 | Top | 8-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
#918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago White Sox -135 over Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - Battle of southpaws here. The Twins have hit decently against lefties this season with a .244 batting average to rank in the middle of the pack in the majors. However, the White Sox have been much better as their .300 batting average versus left-handed pitching ranks them #1 in MLB! The White Sox are 7-1 this season when facing a southpaw starter while the Twins are 4-8 versus lefties this season. Overall Minnesota has struggled this season with a 12-21 overall record and they are below .500 in night games too while Chicago is a fantastic 15-6 this season under the lights. Even though JA Happ has good numbers so far this season for the Twins, he has faced a number of weaker lineups and he is in for a real test here. Odds are that this will not go well for Happ as he has an 8.79 ERA in his last 3 starts against the White Sox. As for Chicago starter Dallas Keuchel, he entered this season on a 35-18 run in home decisions. He has a 1.10 ERA in his last three starts versus the Twins and has a 4-2 record in his career decisions versus Minnesota. Keuchel enters this start with a 2.25 ERA over his last 4 starts overall and has averaged 6 innings per outing. These are two teams trending in opposite directions this season and the lefty versus lefty factor and home field edge make this one a strong play on the hosts. This one will be all White Sox per our computer math model. We will grab the home team at a reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet CHICAGO WHITE SOX -135 |
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05-11-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -129 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -129 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -130 over St Louis Cardinals, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - The Brewers Freddy Peralta is off a rough outing but it was on the road and, throughout his career, he has been a much better pitcher at home compared to on the road. Peralta's numbers in Milwaukee are, in fact, extremely impressive. In his career Peralta is 12-3 at home with a 3.12 ERA! Opponents are hitting just .123 against him at Miller Park this season and he held opponents to a .160 batting average in his home outings last season! In 2019 they hit just .220 against him and in his rookie campaign of 2018 they hit just .123 against him - both of those stats in his home outings. He'll be opposed by Kwang Hyun Kim here. The Cardinals right-hander was horrible in spring training and there has been some carry over into the regular season. Kim only lasted 4 innings in his most recent start and though he held the Mets in check he had more walks than strikeouts. Also, 2 of his other 3 starts were against a Phillies team that has been, overall, struggling at the plate early this season and yet Kim gave up 4 earned runs on 12 hits in only 8 innings of work. Also, Peralta has not started against the Cardinals since April of 2019 so this gives him an edge over the hitters as they have not seen him in a while. Kim, on the other hand, faced the Brewers twice in September and based on his current form Milwaukee will enjoy a lot more success in this rematch. St Louis took the first meeting this season but the Brewers took the next two by a combined score of 18 to 8 and now they get this series in Milwaukee! This one will be all Brewers per our computer math model. We will grab the home team at a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet MILWAUKEE -130 |
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05-10-21 | Reds v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 | Top | 14-1 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati, Monday at 6:35 PM ET – The Reds have scored a total of only 6 runs in 4 games. Yesterday's game was rained out and, prior to Saturday's 9-2 loss going over the total, Cincinnati games were on a run of just 1 over in 5 games. The Reds have scored 3 or less runs in 6 of 8 games. The Pirates also have been struggling at the plate. Pittsburgh had a rare high-scoring win yesterday but this was after 6 straight unders. The Pirates scored only 8 runs total in those 6 games! The Reds start Tyler Mahle in this one. He has a 1.29 ERA on the road this season. Mahle has pitched 11 scoreless innings while allowing only 8 hits and striking out 10 in his last two starts at Pittsburgh. The Pirates start Mitch Keller. Though his numbers on the season do not impress, Keller is off an excellent start at San Diego and should enjoy success against the Reds. Keller has struck out 20 in 13 innings over his 3 starts against Cincinnati. The last time Keller hosted the Reds he gave up only 1 earned run in 6 innings while fanning 9! The Reds are hitting .201 on the road this season and that ranks Cincinnati dead last in the majors. Pittsburgh has a .346 slugging percentage overall which ranks the Pirates dead last in the majors. Runs will be hard to come by on a cool evening at PNC Park for this one. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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05-09-21 | White Sox -139 v. Royals | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
#967 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago White Sox -140 over Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - The Royals have lost 7 straight games and scored an average of only 2.6 runs per game in those 7 defeats. Incredibly, the lone run that Kansas City scored yesterday is the only run they have scored in their last 3 games combined! KC has given up an average of 7 runs per game last 7 games as they have been outscored 49 to 18 last 7 losses. The Royals start Mike Minor here. He is a combined 3-7 with a 5.44 ERA the last two seasons combined. Minor faced the White Sox earlier this season and was fortunate to allow only 1 earned run as he walked 3 plus gave up 4 hits for 7 base runners in a start lasting only 4 innings. The White Sox enter this game having won 6 of 9 games and have scored an average of 7.8 runs in the 5 most recent victories. Chicago is starting to get their bats going as they exploded in the first inning of yesterday's game too. The White Sox have a big pitching edge in this one with Lucas Giolito on the mound. He is 7-2 with a 2.88 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP against the Royals in his career. Giolito is off a tough luck loss to the Indians in his most recent start and his long-term dominance of KC, as well as the Royals recent struggles, should combine to allow him to get right back into the win column with another dominating effort. Giolito has piled up 41 strikeouts in his 30 and 2 / 3 innings this season. This one will be all White Sox per our computer math model. We will grab the road team at a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet CHICAGO WHITE SOX -140 |
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05-08-21 | Red Sox -132 v. Orioles | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
#919 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox -130 over Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET - The Red Sox are 7-3 this season against left-handed starters and a fantastic 10-4 in road games. The Orioles are just 4-11 in home games as Baltimore has been a better road team than home team this season. In fact, if you just played the road team in all of the O's games so far this season you would be 22-10 on the year. Per our computer math model, this is another good spot for a road win as Baltimore has a rookie southpaw, Zac Lowther, making his first ever MLB start. He is facing a Red Sox team that leads the majors in runs scored, batting average, and slugging percentage! The Orioles, on the other hand, are averaging just 3.4 runs per game at home this season and will struggle with Garrett Richards here. Not only did he look better in his 2nd start against Baltimore thai season, after a very rough season debut against them, he also has now rounded into top form. Richards wants his revenge here against the Orioles and he enters this start having allowed only a .214 batting average while going undefeated with a 1.64 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. In his last two road starts he has been particularly dominant as he has struck out 17 while walking just 1 in 12 innings of work. This one will be all Red Sox per our computer math model. We will grab the road team at a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet BOSTON -130 |
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05-07-21 | Reds v. Indians -140 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
#978 ASA TOP PLAY ON Cleveland Indians -140 over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Indians have won 5 straight games and have the home field edge here. The Reds are 4-8 in road games this season. Cleveland has a 2.54 bullpen ERA to rank 2nd in the majors. Cincinnati has a 5.59 bullpen ERA to rank 2nd to LAST in the majors! The Reds do hit well at home but their bats do not travel well. Cincinnati is hitting .202 on the season in road games and that ranks dead LAST in the majors! Wade Miley gets the start for the Reds here and has a low ERA this season but struggled (again!) against the Indians earlier this season. Miley is 1-4 with a 4.95 ERA in his 8 career starts versus Cleveland. The Indians start Zach Plesac in this one and he appears to have turned the corner after a tough start to the season. His recent positive trending is no fluke as it has corresponded with an uptick in velocity. Plesac appears healthy again and back on track and throwing like we are use to seeing him throw. Plesac allowed 3 earned runs on 8 hits in 13 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts. He is 7-3 in home games in his career and was solid in 2 of his 3 home starts this season plus compiled a 2.08 ERA in his 3 home starts in last year's shortened season. With the home/road variance making this a strong play on Plesac and a strong play against the Reds plus the added bulpen edge as well, this spot makes the hosts well worth an investment. We will grab the home team at a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet CLEVELAND -140 |
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05-06-21 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals, 4:05 PM ET - We fell just short with this play yesterday but will come right back with it today. Even after a sub-par performance at the plate yesterday, the Nationals lead the NL with a .288 batting average against left-handed pitchers. Braves southpaw Drew Smyly gets the start here. Though he had a successful outing against the Nationals earlier this season, his current form is definitely trending the wrong way. Smyly has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts. Washington starter Jon Lester will be making just his 2nd start of the season. Though he had a solid 5-inning performance in his first start this season, Lester did record only 1 strikeout in his 5 innings. Atlanta enters this game having scored at least 5 runs in 4 of the last 5 road games. The Braves have a .264 batting average and .500 slugging percentage in night games this season. Both of those marks lead the NL! Considering that plus the Nationals being #1 in the National League for batting average against lefties and you can see why this one should be a high-scoring match-up. Though Washington's bullpen has been solid, too many innings may be expected of them here as Lester has averaged about 4 and 2 / 3 innings per start in his last 9 MLB starts. As for the Atlanta bullpen, the relievers have struggled this season on the road in particular and also the Braves pen has a 5.56 ERA last 5 games. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-05-21 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 8.5 Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals, 7:05 PM ET - The Nationals lead the majors with a .305 batting average against left-handed pitchers. Braves southpaw Max Fried gets the start here as he returns from a hamstring injury. Fried is having a rough season thus far and that includes an ugly start at Washington 4 weeks ago. In that outing he was also opposed by the Nationals Erick Fedde and both pitchers got hit hard. We expect similar results here. Not only are the Nats pounding southpaws this season, the last two times Fried has pitched at Nationals Park he has allowed 5 earned runs in each start even though he lasted just 2 and 2 and 1 / 3 innings, respectively, in those two starts. Fedde has been pitching better since struggling against the Braves 4 weeks ago but Atlanta has been a nemesis of his. Fedde is winless in 4 career starts against the Braves and has a 12.85 ERA in those outings. The O/U is a perfect 4-0 in those outings. Indeed, when Fedde starts against Atlanta there has never been an under. We do not see that changing here. Fedde is off a quality start in his most recent outing but that was his first quality start (6 or more innings, 3 or less earned runs) of the season. The Braves have a .273 batting average and .514 slugging percentage in night games this season. Both of those marks lead the majors! Considering that plus the Nationals being #1 in the majors for batting average against lefties and you can see why this one should be another high-scoring match-up just like the first one between these starting pitchers this season. Though Washington's bullpen has been solid, too many innings may be expected of them here as Fedde prone to early exits when facing the Braves. As for the Atlanta bullpen, the relievers have struggled this season on the road in particular and also the Braves pen has a 6.80 ERA last 5 games. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-04-21 | Brewers v. Phillies -144 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -145 over Milwaukee Brewers, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - When lines first came out on this match-up they were as high as -190 and now, as of mid-day Tuesday, the line is down to a -145. Part of the reason for that is suspension of Phillies reliever Alvarado and the questionable status of Bryce Harper for this game. But the Phillies have a huge edge pitching edge here with Aaron Nola over Eric Lauer. There is some additional value here because Lauer showed an impressive stat line in his start against the Dodgers and that was his first of the season. However, Lauer gave up harder contact than you see from just glancing at a box score and this is a guy who struggled badly in spring training. Also, last season was his first with the Brewers and the lefty went winless with a 13.09 ERA in his 4 appearances - 2 starts. Lauer's last full season in the majors was 2019 and he had a 5.99 ERA on the road. The year before was his rookie season and opponents hit .297 against him in road outings The Phillies Nola, on the other hand, is a proven starting hurler known for dominating at home. He now has a combined 29-10 record in his home starts since 2017. Here are Nola's earned run averages at home starting with this season and back to 2017: 1.37, 2.50, 2.91, 2.34, and 2.98. This is amazing consistency and, indeed, Nola is a model of consistency year in and year out when he is on his home mound. He gives the Phillies a huge starting pitching edge here and, with Vince Velazquez giving the Phillies 6 innings last night, the bullpen is in decent shape for this one even without Alvarado. Also, the last home start for Nola was a 9-inning shutout. This is a mound mismatch and Philadelphia is 10-6 at home this season. The Brewers have been a solid road club early this year but the pitching factor is too much for them to overcome in this one. We will grab the home team at a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet PHILADELPHIA -145 |
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05-03-21 | Rangers v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 8.5 Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins, 7:40 PM ET - The Twins last 5 games have all totaled double digits in runs. The O/U, as you would expect given that information, is a perfect 5-0 in this stretch. Those 5 games averaged 12.8 runs per game and all signs point to another high-scoring game here. Texas has scored an average of 5.2 runs per game on the road this season. The Twins have scored an average of 8.8 runs per game overall last 4 games. Rangers starter Dane Dunning has a 10.57 ERA in his last two starts. Minnesota starter Kenta Maeda has a 9.69 ERA in his last 3 starts and has been hit hard. 23 hits (including 6 homers) against Maeda in 13 innings in his last 3 starts combined. In 13 road games this season for Texas, only 4 have resulted in an under. The Rangers bullpen has a 6.80 ERA on the road this season and Dunning is averaging slightly less than 5 innings per start. The road struggles of the Texas bullpen could be on display early in this one as you can see based on that. With the Twins Maeda also in very poor current form, we look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-02-21 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 4-13 | Loss | -119 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
#921 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Kansas City Royals +1.5 runs (-120) over Minnesota Twins, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - The Royals have been a pleasant surprise early this season while the Twins have been a big disappointment thus far. Kansas City is 16-9 while Minnesota is 9-16 and the Twins are over-priced in this spot. We like the added insurance of having the +1.5 runs at a very low price here in the event Minnesota does manage to get a tight one-run win here but this spot definitely favors the Royals. The last two times Brad Keller faced the Twins he has allowed a total of just 2 earned runs on only 8 hits in 14 innings of work. The last two times Jose Berrios faced the Royals he allowed 4 earned runs in each outing plus walked 4 in each start and he did not make it out of the 6th inning in either start. Berrios has not been overly impressive early this season and allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent home start and did not even make it out of the 5th inning in that one. Keller, on the other hand, has gotten back on track after a tough beginning to the season. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 2 of his last 3 starts and he has a lot of confidence about pitching here. Those 2 most recent strong starts against the Twins were both road starts for him at Minnesota. The Twins enter this game having struggled at the plate in so many of their games this season. Minnesota has been held to 3 or less runs in 11 of the last 16 games! Though these two bullpens rate nearly equal in most categories so far this season, the one in which they do not is wins and losses. Royals relievers are 6-1 and Twins relievers are 1-8. Also, the Royals have saves in 9 of 12 opportunities while Twins have saves in only 4 of 9 opportunities. Overall, the Royals enter this game on a 7-2 run and one of those losses was by a single run. Minnesota has lost 14 of 18 games and is over-priced here considering all of the above. KC has just 1 loss by more than a single run margin in the last 9 games. Bet the Kansas City Royals +1.5 runs on the run line. |
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05-01-21 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Milwaukee vs LA Dodgers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET – The O/U is 4-10 in Dodgers road games this season. The O/U is 8-15 in Brewers games against right-handed starters this season. Facing LA's Dustin May is unlikely to alter the trending of that latter stat for Milwaukee. The Dodgers right-hander has a 2.53 ERA this season and struck out 10 against the Padres in his last start. Speaking of impressive pitching, the Brewers Brandon Woodruff has a 1.55 ERA this season and has also been piling up strikeouts. The Dodgers struggles at the plate are very likely to continue against Woodruff. Los Angeles has been held to an average of 1.7 runs per game last 6 road games! The O/U is 0-6 in those games! The Brewers have had 5 games so far on this homestand and have been held to an average of 2.4 runs per game! On the season Milwaukee has a .289 on base percentage at home - that is the worst mark in the National League. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 4 to 5 runs and even if it reaches 6 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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04-30-21 | Braves v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-13 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
#929/930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 10.5 Runs – Toronto vs Atlanta, Friday at 7:35 PM ET – This O/U opened up at 9.5 and went to 10.5 and there are key reasons why this is offering huge value to the under. First off this is a battle of southpaws. The Braves are hitting an unreal .136 versus left-handed pitching! As you would expect with that horrible number, Atlanta ranks dead last in the majors in that category this season. The Blue Jays are also struggling versus lefties as Toronto has a slugging percentage of .358 versus southpaws to rank 25th out of 30 teams in MLB. Starting tonight is Drew Smyly for the Braves. He just returned from injury and had a horrible first inning but then settled in and allowed only one more run the rest of the way. Smyly will draw some momentum from the way that start wrapped up and the Blue Jays have very few hitters with experience against him which is another definite advantage. The Braves bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack this season so they are not horrible and the Blue Jays bullpen is actually at the top of the majors with a 2.30 ERA on the season. That Toronto pen will be supporting a Jays starter, Robbie Ray, who saw his fastball nearing triple digits in his most recent start. Ray fanned 9 in that outing and has a 2.81 ERA this season and should be in top form against an Atlanta lineup that has struggled so badly with lefties this season. The Braves have had two big games at the plate (both against the Cubs) in last 9 games but the other 7 games saw Atlanta average only 2.6 runs per game. The Blue Jays have scored an average of just 3.3 runs last 9 games. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 8 runs and even if it reaches 9 (or even 10 based on the current posted total of 10.5) that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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04-29-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 120 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: GAME ONE of DOUBLE HEADER: Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs (+120) over Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 5:10 PM ET - The Tigers got a 5-2 win Tuesday over the White Sox but had entered that game losing 10 of 11 games! Chicago entered Tuesday's game having won 6 of 7. The White Sox are fully expected to bounce back here and have a huge pitching edge on the mound and that is why the money line on this game is in the -200 range. To get the value with this bounce back situation we utilize the run line. Yes, the White Sox must win this game by at least 2 runs and it only is a 7-inning game but Chicago should absolutely jump on the Tigers early and hold a big lead throughout and this gets us a comeback return currently in the +120 range. Great line value considering Chicago's last 6 wins have featured 5 by 2+ runs. Casey Mize gets the start for Detroit here. The right-hander was winless with a 6.99 ERA in his 7 starts last season. This season he started okay but is quickly reverting to poor form again. In his last two starts Mize allowed 11 earned runs in under 10 innings combined on the mound while also serving up 5 home runs! He will prove no match for his counterpart, Carlos Rodon in this one. The White Sox left-hander had a great spring training (1.32 ERA in 4 games) and this has carried right into a phenomenal start to the regular season. Rodon is 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA and has held opponents to a minuscule .081 batting average! The White Sox have won his 3 starts by a combined score of 22-5 and another run line cover with him on the mound should not be a problem here. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this immediate revenge situation. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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04-27-21 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, 8:05 PM ET - These lineups just faced these pitchers last week and both actually had a little success but the game still went over the total thanks to faulty bullpens. By the way, these are two of the worst bullpens in the majors thus far on the season. The Rangers bullpen has a 5.54 ERA overall and the Angels bullpen has a 5.77 ERA in road games this season. The key to the value here is both starting pitchers were fortunate they did not allow more runs in their meeting last week. LA's Jose Quintana gave up quite a few hard hit balls for outs. The Rangers Mike Foltneywicz allowed 3 homers but all were solo bombs. Foltneywicz has given up an average of 2 homers per start in his 4 appearances this season. The Angels Ohtani left yesterday's game with a blister injury but that impacted his pitching more than hitting and he should be back in the lineup today. Also, Los Angeles has been given a boost with the return of Rendon to the lineup. He did not hit well yesterday but is hitting .323 in 31 career at-bats versus Foltneywicz. The Rangers right-hander had a rough spring training and has continued to labor in his regular season starts. The Angels Quintana has a 9.00 ERA this season and has walked 11 in 10 innings. The over 7-2 in Angels last 9 games. The over 4-1 in Rangers last 5 games. The Angels have scored at least 4 runs in 7 of 9 games and Texas has scored at least 4 runs in 4 of 5 games. This total sitting at an even 9 runs so plenty of value with getting at least to a 5-4 final quite likely in this one. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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04-26-21 | A's -111 v. Rays | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland A's -110 over Tampa Bay Rays, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - Yesterday's ugly 8-1 loss at Baltimore ended a run of 13 straight wins for Oakland! They are still the hottest team in the majors despite that defeat and are 6-2 in road games this season! The Rays are 4-6 in home games this season. Tampa Bay's slugging percentage the last 15 days ranks 20th in the majors while Oakland's, over that same period, ranks #1 in MLB with a .456 slugging percentage! The A's have scored 6 runs per game during their 13-1 hot streak! Tampa Bay has scored an average of only 3.5 runs in its 10 home games this season. Oakland starter Sean Manaea had a rough first start this season but is coming off a 7-inning complete game shutout (was a game in a double header) and has allowed a total of only 3 runs in his last 3 starts combined! Compare that to Tampa Bay starter Rich Hill allowing 4 earned runs in EACH of his 4 starts this season. Big difference in the current trending of these two pitchers and Hill, 41 years old, appears to be nearing the end of the line in his MLB career. He got roughed up in spring training too so his early season struggles should not come as a surprise and we do not foresee Hill bucking this trend anytime soon. Manaea, on the other hand, is 10-4 with a 3.27 ERA and the 29-year old appears to be entering his prime at the MLB level. Significant pitching edge here and this is the ideal spot to back the Athletics too after yesterday's 8-1 beating. Per our computer math model, a road rout is in the offing for this match-up Monday evening. Look for the Athletics to make it 14 wins in 15 games as they immediately bounce back from Sunday's big loss! We will grab the road team at a very short price on the money line in this one and bet OAKLAND |
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04-25-21 | A's v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Baltimore vs Oakland, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET – Wind blowing in from left or at least left to right and is unlikely to help the hitters. A lot of right-handed bats at the plate for this one and will be trying to pull directly into the wind against a pair of solid left-handed starters. John Means has been pitching extremely well to begin this season. He has 4 starts under his belt and is the ace of the staff with a 1.52 ERA. Also, the Orioles bullpen which supports him has #6 ranked ERA in the majors with a 3.19 ERA on the season thus far. As for Oakland, they certainly are not having pitching issues either. That is why this team has won 13 games in a row! There was one crazy 13-12 extra innings win in the stretch but in the other dozen games the A's have allowed only 2 runs per game on average! The Orioles have a .377 slugging percentage against lefties to rank in the bottom third of the majors thus far this season. As hot as Oakland has been they are hitting only .221 in day games this season and Means has been fantastic on the mound this year. The Athletics have Jesus Luzardo on the mound. He has pitched quite well in 3 of his 4 starts and his most recent was his best one yet. Piling up strikeouts and he also limited hits in his most recent start plus the Orioles have no familiarity with him. That should be an edge to the young southpaw and the Orioles struggles against lefties continue. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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04-24-21 | Angels v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 2-16 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros, 4:10 PM ET - Both of these starting pitchers had a rough spring training. Both starters have seen those tough times carry right into the regular season as well. We are aware of the Mike Trout injury situation for the Angels but, even without him in the lineup yesterday, LA pounded out 13 hits in the extra innings loss. Also, his likely replacement is Scott Schebler. He is 3 for 6 with two homers in his career against Jake Odorizzi! The Astros Odorizzi had a 15.75 ERA in spring training and has a 10.57 ERA so far in the regular season this year. The Angels start Griffin Canning. The Los Angeles right-hander had a 6.75 ERA in spring training and has a 5.68 ERA so far in the regular season this year. Canning has a 6.35 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Astros with a 1.94 WHIP. That means he allowed about 2 baserunners per inning which of course leads to trouble quickly. Both these bullpens rank in the bottom half of the rankings for relievers ERA this season too. The Angels are hitting .267 in road games this season which is the 2nd best mark in MLB! The over is 4-0 in Astros L4 home games. The over is 5-1 in Angels L6 games overall. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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04-23-21 | A's -126 v. Orioles | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland A's -125 over Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - 11 straight wins for Oakland! They are the hottest team in the majors and are 4-1 in road games this season! The Orioles are 1-6 in home games this season. Baltimore's slugging percentage ranks 24th in the majors while Oakland's is in the top ten! The A's have scored 6.5 runs per game during their winning streak! Baltimore has scored an average of only 3 runs in its last 7 games. Orioles starter Jorge Lopez has allowed 5 homers in less than 14 innings of work on the season. Athletics starter Cole Irvin has allowed only 9 hits in 11 and 1 / 3 innings his last two starts and is coming off a start in which he pitched 6 scoreless innings. Irvin dominated in spring training too and the former Phillie appears to be rounding into form as the 27 year old is now in his 4th year in the majors. For Lopez, he is 10-19 with a 6.17 ERA in his career and is struggling again already this season with an 8.56 ERA thus far on the year. Per our computer math model, a road rout is in the offing for this match-up Friday evening. Look for the Athletics to make it a dozen straight wins! We will grab the road team at a very fair price on the money line in this one and bet OAKLAND |
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04-22-21 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Cleveland vs New York Yankees, Thursday at 6:10 PM ET – It will be a chilly evening in Cleveland and certainly NOT a hitter-friendly night. The Yankees and Indians are hitting .205 and .209, respectively, so far this season. Those are the two worst batting averages in the American League. Yankees and Indians relievers, however, rank each team as two of the best in the majors with the Yankees bullpen #1 with a 2.28 ERA and the Indians bullpen #6 in the majors with a 3.00 ERA. As for the starting pitchers in this one Aaron Civale is 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA for Cleveland this season. For New York, Domingo German just returned from the Yankees training site because he had some early season struggles. But his arm appears fine and he had great numbers in spring training. This is still the same hard thrower that went 18-4 and held hitters to a .228 batting average in the last full season two years ago in 2019. The Indians have played 16 games this season and the Yankees have played 17 games and the teams have each gone over the total in only 6 of their respective games. The Yanks have scored an average of just 2.6 runs their past 8 games. The Indians have scored an average of only 3.3 runs per game their past 9 games. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER. |
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04-21-21 | Mets -122 v. Cubs | Top | 4-16 | Loss | -122 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Mets -122 over Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 7:40 PM ET - The Cubs won yesterday's game but this followed a stretch of 8 losses in 11 games. Chicago only had 4 hits in yesterday's game and continues to struggle badly at the plate. The Cubs have not won back to back games since very early this season. The Mets have not lost back to back games yet this season as New York is a perfect 4-0 when off a loss this year. In terms of the pitching match-up here, the Mets hold a big edge. New York's David Peterson had a rough first start but bounced back big in his next start and he had a solid spring too. Consider the first start this season a bit of an aberration for Peterson and it was a day game start. His next start was at night and he dominated. How can that matter? Some guys are much better under the lights than in day games and Peterson has shown this pattern already in his young career. He is a perfect 5-0 with a 2.67 ERA in his 6 starts in evening action! The Cubs are hitting a putrid .189 at the plate so far this season which is the worst batting average in the majors. They have never faced Peterson which is another big edge for the southpaw here. The Mets have also struggled at the plate early this season but are hitting a more respectable .241 thus far. Though New York has wasted opportunities and not scored all that well they have had their chances. The key here is they should have great success in both creating and cashing in those opportunities. The Cubs Zach Davies does not look right at all. He is struggling badly on the mound for Chicago thus far and has a 10.32 ERA and a 2.21 WHIP. That latter stat means that he is allowing an average of 2 base runners per inning and this is a guy who has made 3 starts already and 2 of them were against a Pirates team projected to be one of the worst in the majors this season. The Mets are projected to challenge the Braves for top spot in the NL East. The Mets bats come to life against Davies and we expect Peterson to throw a gem here. We will grab the road team at a very fair price on the money line in this one and bet the METS |
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04-20-21 | Braves +113 v. Yankees | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
#923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta +110 over NY Yankees, Tuesday at 6:35 PM ET - The Yankees have lost 5 straight games and 8 of 10. The Yankees are known for striking out far too often at the plate and now they face Charlie Morton, a curve ball specialist. Morton had his curve working fantastically well in his most recent start and his scoreline for that one was deceiving as he deserved better. We expect him to absolutely handcuff the Yankees in this one by keeping them off balance all game long. The Yankees are feeling the added pressure of being in a losing skid and that only makes it even more difficult to step in the box with confidence against a guy like Morton who allowed just 2 earned runs in 9 innings against the Yankees last season as a member of the Rays. That included defeating them in the post-season. Morton has a great history against nearly all the Yankees batters. The lone exception being Brett Gardner but he is 0 for 8 his last 3 games entering this one. The Braves should pound Jameson Taillon here. He is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Taillon has allowed 3 homers in 8 and 1 / 3 innings over his first two starts. Atlanta has won 3 of the last 4 games and has scored an average of 6.4 runs per game in the last 10 games. We’ll grab the road team at an underdog price on the money line in this one and bet ATLANTA |
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04-19-21 | Rays v. Royals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Kansas City vs Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:10 PM ET – Josh Fleming gets the start for the Rays and he was born in Missouri. This road trip to Kansas City is a special one for him and he will have a lot of supporters in the stands for this one. The Tampa Bay southpaw, now in his 2nd season in the majors, is 5-1 with a 2.65 ERA in 8 career appearances, 6 of which were starts. He faces a Royals team that has decent overall season numbers at the plate but that is because those stats are skewed by their first two games this season when they scored 25 runs. Since then, KC has averaged scoring only 3 runs per game its past 12 games. The Royals, not including extra innings, have been held to 3 or less runs in 10 of those 12 games! Unsurprisingly, given those numbers, Kansas City is on an under run that has seen the under cash in 9 of 11 games! The Rays, on the other hand, have been trending over the total but this is atypical of Tampa Bay baseball and there should be a regression to the mean. The way the Royals Danny Duffy is throwing, that regression should include this game staying under the total. Duffy is 2-0 with an 0.75 ERA and has fanned 11 in 12 innings this season. Though the Rays have trended over this season, yesterday's game did stay under the total and was the 7th time in 9 games in which Tampa Bay was held to 4 or less runs. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER. |
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04-18-21 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER: Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners, 4:10 PM ET - Entering Saturday's match-up between these teams, each of the Mariners last 3 home games were overs and the Astros were on an overall 3-0 run to the over. Houston, entering Saturday's game, had allowed 6 or more runs in 6 straight games! Seattle, entering the Saturday match-up, had allowed 6.3 runs per game in home games this season. The point is, regardless of the outcome of Saturday night's game, both teams are trending the way we would like to see for an over. What makes this one absolutely a must play for us is the pitching match-up as both of these starters have been struggling. Jake Odorizzi struggled in spring training and then got hammered in his only regular season start thus far as the Tigers hit him hard including 3 homers in just 3 and 1 / 3 innings. Odorizzi had a 6.59 ERA in limited action, 4 starts, last season and just does not seem to have his confidence on the mound like we saw in 2019 and prior seasons. He is not the same pitcher he was. Speaking of struggling, Nick Margevicius gets the start for the Mariners here. The Seattle southpaw is 4-10 with a 5.94 ERA at the MLB level and is already struggling (7.04 ERA) this season in his 3 games (1 start). Houston has been a top 5 hitting team this season for batting average and will get to Margevicius early and often. The Mariners have been a top 5 hitting team in day games for batting average this season and, again, Odorizzi continues to be very hittable as we noted above. This one has the makings of plenty of runs early and the bullpens have been decent early this season but were not projected to be a strength for either one of these teams coming into the season. There will be a regression to the mean in that regard. Look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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04-17-21 | Mets -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: *Game 1 of DH* New York Mets -1.5 runs (-133) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 5:05 PM ET - This is game one of the double header at Colorado today and the fact is a 7-inning game strengthens this situation for the Mets. That is because Jacob deGrom could very easily end up pitching the whole way and that eliminates the Mets bullpen from the equation. The only problem for deGrom this season has been lack of run support but that changes in this one as the Mets take advantage of facing Chi Chi Gonzalez at Coors Field. This season in two appearances at Coors Field Gonzalez has a 1.60 WHIP and a 5.40 ERA. He came to Colorado before the 2019 season. Entering this season, including the last 2 with the Rockies, here is what Gonzalez has done at the MLB level: 2-10 record with a 6.00 ERA! The Mets enter this game off 3 straight wins. Colorado enters this game having lost 6 straight and they have the worst record in baseball thus far with a 3-10 mark on the season. 7 of the Rockies last 8 losses have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. New York's last two wins have been 3 or more runs each and their road win earlier this season at Philly was by a margin of 4 runs. You can see why laying the 1.5 runs here should not be an issue and if Gonzalez gets into trouble early (likely), he is supported by a Colorado bullpen that has the worst numbers in National League with a 5.84 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Finally deGrom gets big run support and his domination on the mound continues and he finally gets that elusive first win of the season. He has a 0.64 ERA this season and allowed just 1 earned run in 8 innings the last time he pitched at Coors Field and deGrom is 4-1 with a 1.25 ERA in his career against Colorado. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the New York Mets -1.5 runs in Game One of the Double Header Saturday. |
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04-16-21 | Tigers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Detroit Tigers @ Oakland A's, 9:40 PM ET - The Tigers are scoring better than most expected early this season. Yesterday's game was an 8-4 loss for Detroit at Oakland but it was the 3rd straight over in Tigers games. Detroit has scored an average of 6 runs a game in its last 4 games. The Tigers have a .416 slugging percentage on the season which ranks 6th in the majors. Though the A's have poor overall numbers offensively this season, they are absolutely trending the right direction. The over is 4-0 in Oakland's last 4 games and the Athletics are truly in the zone right now as they have won 5 straight games thanks in large part to a scoring average of 7.4 runs during the streak. Each of these teams have bullpens that rank near the bottom of the majors for relievers ERA early this season and that is an issue here too because each of the starters have an ERA above 8.00 early this season. Frankie Montas struggled badly in his only home start this season and Jose Urena has had issues in both his starts this season. Each of the last two years Urena has finished the season with an ERA above 5.00 so this might be his last start in the rotation for now if things don't turn around. Spencer Turnbull is likely back soon and Urena would be the odd man out. While he is still out there we are going to take advantage of his turn in the rotation and look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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04-15-21 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET – The Indians were no-hit by the White Sox yesterday which means the Chicago bullpen has fresh arms for this one. That is good news for the White Sox and also there are no issues with a Cleveland bullpen that has been solid early this season with a 2.76 ERA. Neither bullpen may be needed much in this one anyway! Chicago's Lance Lynn allowed 3 earned runs or less in 11 of his 13 starts last season and he enters this start off a complete game shutout of the Royals in which he fanned 11 batters! Lynn should have no trouble with an Indians team that is again one of the worst hitting teams in the majors early this season. What is a surprise is that the slugging White Sox are also struggling with power and their slugging percentage is in the bottom third of the majors so far. Facing Aaron Civale will not help as he has been spectacular early this season with a 2-0 record, 2.45 ERA and holding hitters to a .111 batting average. Adding to the value here is that it is a chilly mid-April afternoon in Chicago and certainly it is not yet hitting weather here in the Midwest! The result, based on all of the above is a well-pitched affair in this one in which the hurlers dominate. We expect this one to get to no more than 5 or 6 runs at best. The White Sox had 4 straight unders before yesterday's under and the Indians had seen 8 of their 10 games stay under the total before yesterday's game went over the total despite them being no-hit. Take the UNDER. |
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04-14-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-120) over Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET - Jon Gray has good numbers so far this season but Dodger Stadium has been a house of horrors for him in his career. Gray is 1-5 at Dodger Stadium and has been pummeled in almost all those defeats. Another factor going against him here is that the Dodgers saw him in his first start this season which was at Coors Field. Though Gray fared well there it is worth noting that one of the big bats for the Dodgers that is currently out is Cody Bellinger but he went 0 for 4 that game. Also, Gray did not have to face Mookie Betts in that one but now he was back in the lineup yesterday and likely to play again today. Additionally, Justin Turner was rested yesterday but he'll be back in the lineup today. Yesterday 7 of the Dodgers 8 position players in the lineup had a hit and 3 had multi-hit games and 4 hit homers, including Betts. Remember Turner was not even in the lineup yesterday. The Dodgers are again stacked this season and are 9-2 so far on the campaign and 7 of the 9 wins were by a multi-run margin. Not including the Nationals (covid earlier so have played less games), the Rockies are the only team in the majors that has less than 4 wins on the year. Not only is Colorado 3-8 this season, the Rockies have lost 8 of their last 10 games and 6 of the 8 defeats were by a multi-run margin. Now a Rockies lineup that struggles away from home has to face Dustin May. He was fantastic in his first start this season at Oakland and, in his career, he has a 2.79 ERA and has held hitters to a .223 batting average. Colorado has scored a total of 4 runs in their 4 games thus far on the road trip and has lost all 4. The Dodgers are scoring an average of 6 runs per game this season and are a perfect 4-0 at home. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in late night action Wednesday. |
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04-13-21 | Padres -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -135 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: San Diego Padres -1.5 runs (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 6:35 PM ET - The Padres are 4-0 on the road this season. They have won 8 games overall and each of the last 7 victories have been by 2+ runs. There is no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs and getting a very fair -135 price on San Diego in this one. The Pirates have played 10 games this season and 9 of the 10 were games decided by 2 or more runs. The Padres have the top ranked bullpen in MLB so far with a 1.00 ERA. The Pirates bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors with a 5.88 ERA and San Diego took advantage in yesterday's game and can do the same today. However, they should not need to! The Padres can get the early jump on today's game by getting to Chad Kuhl early and often. He is having major command issues and already has 8 walks in 7 innings this season. Now he faces a Padres team that has been one of the best in the majors in terms of drawing walks early this season and also one that does not strike out much as they rank very well in that category as well. San Diego is averaging just 7 K's per game (most teams average 9 or 10!). What this means is that the Padres will be patient at the plate against Kuhl who is struggling with command and then when he does throw strikes San Diego is likely to put the ball in play. This likely often comes with guys on base due to all the walks. You can see where we going with this...some big innings likely in this one! The Pirates are 0-4 against teams with a winning record this season and they face a tall task facing Blake Snell here. He is still looking for his first regular season win since coming to San Diego but this is the perfect spot for it! Snell has been dominant, including spring training, as he has allowed only 2 earned runs in 24 innings in spring training and regular season action combined for the Padres. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the San Diego Padres -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday. |
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04-12-21 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Atlanta vs Miami, Monday at 7:20 PM ET – The Braves are off a tough loss last night to the Phillies. It was a very entertaining game for the fans but likely a draining one for the teams and especially for an Atlanta team that felt they lost the game on a questionable safe call at the plate in the 9th inning. Now the Phillies leave town and the Braves welcome the Marlins to Atlanta. Could the Braves be a little flat at the plate after last night's game? Absolutely but, not only that, they would have their hands full in a normal situation too when it comes to having to face Sandy Alcantara. The Marlins staff ace has allowed just 6 hits while striking out 17 in 12 innings pitched his first two starts. Alcantara will be seeking revenge for a post-season loss in Atlanta in October. Looking at the two most recent regular season starts for Alcantara against the Braves he has allowed only 4 hits in 14 and 2 / 3 innings. The Braves are hitting only .214 this season and Alcantara will be very careful with red-hot Acuna and power-hitting Freeman. The latter of those two is hitting only .167 and really, other than Acuna, the Braves hitters are struggling. Travis d'Arnaud the lone other hitter that is even off to a respectable start at .267 thus far. As for the Marlins, their team is also struggling at the plate as they are hitting only .215 and they have a paltry .315 slugging percentage. The Braves bullpen has been one of the best in the league thus far with a 2.08 ERA and they will be supporting a starter, Huascar Ynoa, who had a fantastic first start this season. Ynoa went 5 scoreless innings and struck out 5 while allowing only 2 hits. The Marlins have scored 24 runs in their 8 games this season but 12 runs came in 1 game. In other 7 games the Marlins have averaged scoring only 1.7 runs per game. Look for Miami's struggles at the plate continue here but we also expect Alcantara, who absolutely appears to be on top of his game right now, to be super sharp and shut down the Braves in this one. The result is a well-pitched affair in this one in which the hurlers dominate. We expect this one to get to no more than 6 or 7 runs at best. Take the UNDER. |
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04-11-21 | Reds v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER: Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10 PM ET - The over is now 7-1 in Reds games this season. Cincinnati leads the majors with a .312 batting average and .567 slugging percentage. The Reds lost 8 to 3 here yesterday but that was the first time this season they did not score at least 5 runs in a game. Cincinnati did have 12 hits in yesterday's loss and today they'll get their big runs again. They face Luke Weaver and he allowed 3 homers in his first start this season. One could chalk that up to pitching at Coors Field but in this case it truly is really not just that. Weaver has regressed as this is a guy who went 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA last season and now he faces the #1 hitting team in the league thus far this season. The Diamondbacks do not have the impressive hitting stats that the Reds do this season but keep in mind, Arizona is known for hitting better at home in comparison with the road. Their two series this year were on the road and now since coming back home they have scored 13 runs in two games and pounded out 10 hits yesterday. The Diamondbacks will face Cincinnati's Jose De Leon. Though he did have a very strong first start to open the season he faced a Pirates team that most expect to be the worst team in the league this season and he was at home. De Leon has a 7.79 ERA in his MLB career and the last time he was a starter was 2016 and he compiled a 6.35 ERA in his 4 starts. Both starting pitchers are likely to get rocked here and the Reds bullpen has a 5.29 ERA so far this season. The Diamondbacks pen has been better but they now face the hottest hitting team in baseball a 3rd straight day. Look for plenty of scoring throughout this one as the over moves to 8-1 in Reds games on the season! Bet Over |
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04-10-21 | A's v. Astros -149 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -149 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
#924 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -150 over Oakland, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - The Astros won the first 5 match-ups between these teams this season by a combined score of 41 to 11. It was complete dominance. Yesterday the A's finally got some measure of revenge with a 6 to 2 win as they rallied for 5 runs in the last two innings. Though Houston's pen had a rare bad game yesterday they have had the much better bullpen (3.98 ERA) so far this season in comparison with Oakland's relief work (5.94 ERA). Also, the Astros are tops in the American League with a .282 batting average and .502 slugging percentage. The A's are dead last in the AL in both categories with a .175 batting average and .287 slugging percentage. In evaluating the starting pitching match-up here, Oakland's Frankie Montas seems like a shell of his 2019 version. In 2020 he dropped off and produced a 5.60 ERA. This season he seemed to carry the struggles right into 2021 as he got roughed up in the last two of his three spring outings and then was horrible in his regular season debut as he got rocked for 7 earned runs in less than 3 innings against the Dodgers. Montas has an ERA of 9.00 in his last 3 starts at Houston so facing the Astros at Minute Maid Park is unlikely to be the point he turns things around. The Astros start Jose Urquidy in this one. He faced the A's last week and had a rough first inning but retired 11 of the last 12 batters he faced and settled in nicely in that outing. Now Urquidy is at home where he has allowed just 26 hits in 34 and 1 / 3 innings in his first two seasons in the bigs. One of his few rough outings at home was against the A's last season but he showed he is past that with his performance last week at Oakland as he battled through the first inning and settled in and didn't give Oakland anything after that. More of that dominance expected here. We’ll grab the home team at a very fair price on the money line in this one and bet HOUSTON |
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04-09-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -114 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants, 4:35 PM ET - The weather will be cool at Oracle Park in San Francisco by the bay but the wind is expected to be blowing out to center field at least 20 mph in this one. Certainly this could help lift a few balls out of the yard if the pitchers make some mistakes and certainly we could see that in this one. As for the starters here, Austin Gomber had a very rough season opener and he has made only 5 starts at the MLB level since the end of the 2018 season. The Rockies southpaw is still a bit unproven as a starter and faces a big challenge here with a road start against a team making its home opener. Gomber walked 7 in just 3 and 1 / 3 innings in his season opening start. The Giants have not been hitting the ball well for average early this season but do have 11 homers in 6 games and Gomber is having trouble with his location and now wanting to avoid walking too many. That said, you know what happens with mistake pitches over the plate and San Francisco will make him pay. The Giants start Johnny Cueto here. The veteran right-hander had a rough spring with a 9.82 ERA in his 3 starts. This seemed to carry into his shaky season opener as well as he was not overly impressive against the Mariners. A number of Rockies hitters have had good success against Cueto and you might think that is only due to seeing him at Coors Field. But he just faced Colorado here at Oracle Park last September and got rocked for 7 earned runs in 4 and 1 / 3 innings. The total set on this game by oddsmakers has been bouncing around but after opening at 8.5 went as high as a 9 and then settled in at a 8. We love the value here after the line move in particular and will not hesitate to get involved here. Look for both teams to hit the ball well on Friday in the series opener of this 3-game set. Bet Over |
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04-08-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – St Louis vs Milwaukee, Thursday at 4:15 PM ET – The Cardinals and Brewers have both struggled at the plate early this season. St Louis is off a 7-0 win but had averaged scoring just 3 runs per game in 3 games prior to yesterday's big victory at Miami. The Cards are hitting only .206 on the season and the Brewers have been even worse as they are hitting only .171 on the season. Milwaukee has scored an average of only 2.6 runs per game their last 5 games. Each team has been getting solid pitching recently as well. Adam Wainwright gets the start for the Cardinals in their home opener today. Though he got roughed up in the season opener he looked excellent in spring training and is a 39 year old veteran who knows how to adjust after a rare tough outing. Wainwright not only dominated in spring training, he is known for being great in day game action. Wainwright went 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and .134 BAA in day games last season. The year before that it was 6-1, 1.61, and .210 for more excellence under the sun in 2019. Wainwright also is known for pitching great at home where he has gone a combined 11-6 the past two seasons with an ERA under the 3.00 mark. As a result, the Brewers run-scoring woes should continue here and the Cardinals bullpen is fresh and has fared well in recent games. The Cardinals bats are also likely to be stifled here as the Brewers have been getting great pitching and this includes from Corbin Burnes. The righty was a hard-luck loser in his first start as he struck out 11 in 6 and 1 / 3 innings and allowed just 1 hit in the outing. That is a tough loss for sure but the Brewers could give him no run support and that is likely to again be an issue here. Look for another strong start from him as Burnes went 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA and a .174 BAA last season as he returned to the form of his rookie season of 2018 when he went 7-0 with a 2.61 ERA and a .199 BAA. Burnes was fantastic this spring too and carried that right into his dominating first start this season as well. We expect this one to get to no more than 5 or 6 runs at best. Take the UNDER. |
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04-07-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. A's | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-110) over Oakland A's, Wednesday at 3:35 PM ET - Even though it is early in the season the performance of the bats of these two teams so far this season is not a huge surprise. The Dodgers are the defending World Series Champs while the A's were one of the worst hitting teams in the American League last season. Thus far this season, the Dodgers rank 1st in the majors with a .327 batting average while the Athletics rank dead last in the AL with a .169 batting average. That trending is likely to continue here based on this pitching match-up. Even though Oakland's Jesus Luzardo has electric stuff he still is a young pitcher that has issues with his command at times. Last season when he faced the Dodgers out of the pen he allowed 3 earned runs on 3 hits and 3 walks in 3 innings on the hill. In his first start this season he piled up 8 strikeouts but allowed 5 earned runs on 8 hits (including 2 homers) in 5 innings of work. More struggles likely today for Luzardo while we expect the Dodgers Trevor Bauer to cruise in this one. In his first start this season Bauer no-hit the Rockies through 6 innings and that start was at Coors Field! He did get into some trouble then and exited with one out in the 7th but he piled up 10 strikeouts in a very impressive effort in a tough ballpark to pitch in. Bauer got the win there to open up this season and this is a guy who had a 1.73 ERA last season with the Reds as he returned to the form that saw him go 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA with the Indians in 2018. When he is on, Bauer is a very tough pitcher and he piled up strikeouts this spring too and now will take advantage of an Oakland team struggling at the plate. The A's do have a solid bullpen but so too do the Dodgers. That said, with the other key edges (hitting and starting pitching) going to the road team in this one we are grabbing the road team on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in afternoon action Wednesday. |
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04-06-21 | Braves v. Nationals UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Under 8 Runs – Washington vs Atlanta, Tuesday at 4 PM ET – The Braves are starting Drew Smyly in this one and he wrapped up last season striking out 38 over his final 22 innings. When he is "on" he is a crafty lefty and he should hold a couple key edges here. One is that he has spent most of his career in the American League so the Nationals have very little experience against him. Another reason the Washington hitters will be at a disadvantage in this one is that the covid protocols delayed their season up to this point. So no game action since spring training ended over a week ago. Essentially the Nats were handed an unwanted week off right at the beginning of the new season. The pitchers are set to dominate in this one because Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Nationals. He piled up 20 strikeouts and held batters to a .180 batting average in his spring training starts as he compiled 13.2 innings. Scherzer has allowed 2 earned runs or less in his first start of a year in 6 of the last 7 seasons. In fact, in those 6 starts he has allowed a total of only 6 earned runs or an average of 1 per game. Considering one of the Braves strengths this season is the bullpen and the fact that the Nationals have solid late-inning arms in the bullpen and Scherzer can work deep into this game, there is likely to be very little scoring in this one. The Nats bats haven't seen game action in over a week and the Braves bats were stifled in their season opening series. Atlanta was held to just 3 runs total in their 3-game season opening series at Philly. The average score of the 3 games was Phillies 3, Braves 1 and we expect this one to get to no more than 5 or 6 runs at best. Take the UNDER. |
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04-05-21 | Mets -1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: New York Mets (-1.5 runs) over Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - The Phillies are 3-0 to start the season but the Mets are a -200 on the money line for a reason. Yes the Mets series with the Nationals was postponed by Washington's covid situation, but that means Jacob deGrom is getting this start. He is completely likely to shut down the Phillies. The situation with Philadelphia is that their 3-0 start is because of their starting pitching but now they go from Nola, Wheeler and Eflin to a #4 guy (Matt Moore) making his first MLB start in two years. He last pitched at the MLB level in April of 2019 and that was only 10 innings worth. He spent last season pitching in Japan. In his most recent full seasons at the MLB level, Moore went 3-8 with a 6.79 ERA in 2018 and 6-15 with a 5.52 ERA in 2017. Now the Phillies left-hander faces a Mets team expected by many to win the NL East this season. That being said, Philadelphia is likely in trouble here as the Phillies position players are hitting only .255 with just 5 extra base hits in 3 games. As you can see, the bats are not what is carrying this team to a 3-0 start and now they face the unenviable task of facing a hurler who has won the NL Cy Young 2 of the last 3 seasons. The Mets deGrom has compiled an ERA under 2.44 for 3 straight seasons and has held opponents under a .200 batting average the last 3 seasons combined. The Mets are 14-3 in his 17 career starts against Philadelphia and he is 8-1 with a 2.38 ERA in these outings. Blowout alert! Bet the New York Mets -1.5 runs in early evening action Monday. |
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04-04-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 11.5 Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies, 3:10 PM ET - These teams have combined for 41 runs on 69 hits so far in this series. That is an average of nearly 14 runs per game on 23 hits per game. On a warm afternoon in Denver with high temperatures expected near 80 degrees we expect the bats to stay hot in this one. Neither team has been held below 5 runs in any of the 3 games thus far in the series. If that situation remains the same, the worst we can do here is a 6-5 final which was indeed the final score of yesterday's game which stayed just under the total of 11.5 runs. However, we absolutely expect much more than that here as both bullpens have already had plenty of work in this series with all the runs being scored thus far in this series and this now being a 4th game in a 4 day situation for each bullpen to contend with. As for the starters here, Austin Gomber faces the defending World Series Champs and he has made only 4 starts at the MLB level since the end of the 2018 season. The Rockies southpaw is still a bit unproven as a starter and faces a big challenge here with a day game start on a warm afternoon at Coors Field against one of the toughest lineups in baseball. The Dodgers start Julio Urias here and he had a 5.40 ERA vs the Rockies last season, a 4.82 ERA in Coors Fields outings in 2019, and prior to that made a start here in 2017 and allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings. In his lone appearance at Coors Field the year before, his rookie season of 2016, Urias allowed 3 earned runs in 3 innings. The fact is that, like most pitchers, Urias stuff just doesn't have the same action in the thin air of Coors Field that it has in other venues. Look for both teams to continue to hit the ball well on Sunday in the series finale of this 4-game set. Bet Over |
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04-03-21 | Twins v. Brewers -130 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
#978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee -130 over Minnesota, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - The Brewers rallied for 3 in the bottom of the 9th to tie up Thursday's season opener. Then in the top of the 10th Josh Hader struck out the side as he continues to be a dominant closer for Milwaukee and they won it in the bottom of the 10th. The Brewers definitely hold the bullpen edge in this match-up but the Twins concerns here go far beyond their relievers. Minnesota's lineup is impacted here because it is an NL park and that means no DH which in turn means no Nelson Cruz. Additionally, the Twins Josh Donaldson started Thursday's game but now is out with a hamstring injury. As for the pitching match-up here, Jose Berrios gets the start for the Twins. Not only is Berrios coming off a sub-par season - by his standards - in 2020, he also is known for struggling more on the road than at home. He got hit at a .183 clip at home last season but .288 on the road last season. In 2018 Berrios was great at home but went 3-7 with a 4.85 ERA in his 15 road starts. In 2017 he was also fantastic at home but Berrios went 5-7 with a 5.17 ERA away from home. In his last start in Milwaukee, Berrios gave up 3 homers in 5 innings! Corbin Burnes gets the start for the Brewers here and he allowed just 2 hits in 5 innings in his start at Minnesota last season. Now he is on his home mound facing the Twins and Burnes went 2-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his 5 appearances (3 starts) at American Family Field last season. Overall Burnes went 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA and a .174 BAA as he returned to the form of his rookie season of 2018 when he went 7-0 with a 2.61 ERA and a .199 BAA. Burnes was fantastic this spring and we see every reason to believe he'll get the better of this match-up with Berrios as the latter sees his long-term road struggles continue. We’ll grab the home team at a very fair price on the money line in this one and bet MILWAUKEE. |
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04-02-21 | Rays -105 v. Marlins | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
#925 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -105 over Miami, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Marlins not only were handed a shutout yesterday they hardly had any base runners. It was a demoralizing season opener for Miami as they only drew one walk and had just 3 hits. Conversely, the Rays got a big lift with the solo bomb from Meadows with two outs in the top of the 8th. Not only that, Tampa Bay at least produced some scoring chances but they left 8 men on base throughout the game. We feel the line move here (Marlins have been attracting attention) has led to some great value on the defending AL Champion Rays. Miami faced all right-handed pitchers yesterday but now face a very tough southpaw in the form of Ryan Yarbrough. The lefty used to be more of an opener but now is a guy who averages 5 and can certainly give a solid 6 innings. He is very tough to hit and looked sharp in the spring. While Pablo Lopez of the Marlins also deserves respect, he gave up 5 earned runs in 4 innings the last time he faced the Rays. Also, one of the key guys out for TB right now is Ji-Man Choi but his replacement, Yoshi Tsutsugo, is 2 for 2 with a homer against Lopez in his career. Also, Joey Wendle did not play for the Rays yesterday but don't be surprised if he is in the lineup today as he is 4 for 8 with a homer in his career against Lopez. There is a good chance that Wendle will be among 5 left-handed bats in the lineup for the Rays tonight and Lopez struggled much more against left-handed bats last season. As for Yarbrough, he faced the Marlins in August and shut them out over 6 and 2 / 3 innings of strong work as he struck out 5 and walked 0 while allowing only 4 hits. This one shapes up well to be another road win as the Rays ride the momentum of yesterday's victory to another win here. We’ll grab the road team at a great price on the money line in this one and bet TAMPA BAY. |
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10-27-20 | Rays +126 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 8:08 PM ET |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 8:08 PM ET |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 8:08 PM ET |
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10-21-20 | Rays +124 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 124 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
NOTE: We are comfortable with this play regardless of the starting pitchers and recommend making this wager as action on the starting pitchers.ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8:08 PM ET |
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10-20-20 | Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 8:09 PM ET |
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10-17-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -140 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 8* ON Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves, Saturday at 4:38 PM ET |
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10-16-20 | Dodgers v. Braves OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
NOTE: We are comfortable with this play regardless of the starting pitchers announced.ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves versus Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 9:08 PM ET |
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10-15-20 | Rays -142 v. Astros | 3-4 | Loss | -142 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
ACTION on BOTH starting pitchers! ASA PLAY 8* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros, Thursday at 5:08 PM ET |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 6:05 PM ET |
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10-13-20 | Rays -105 v. Astros | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros, Tuesday at 8:40 PM ET |
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10-12-20 | Astros v. Rays -124 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros, Monday at 4:07 PM ET |
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10-11-20 | Astros v. Rays -132 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros, Sunday at 7:37 PM ET |
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10-08-20 | Rays +126 v. Yankees | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs New York Yankees, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET |
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10-07-20 | A's v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Houston Astros versus Oakland A's, Wednesday at 3:35 PM ET |
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10-06-20 | Marlins v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 106 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 2:08 PM ET |
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10-05-20 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Oakland Athletics versus Houston Astros, Monday at 4:07 PM ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA |
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10-01-20 | Cardinals +146 v. Padres | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) @ San Diego Padres, Thursday at 7:08 PM ET |
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09-30-20 | Yankees v. Indians +113 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Cleveland Indians Money Line (-) vs New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:08 PM ET |
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09-30-20 | White Sox v. A's -120 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 8* ON Oakland A's Money Line (-) vs Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 3:10 PM ET |
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09-29-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 5 PM ET |
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09-27-20 | Marlins v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET |
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09-26-20 | Cubs v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET |