NIT Super Play

Rating: 4 Units

Oddsmakers are making Chattanooga an underdog yet again and we’re going to keep grabbing the points. Chattanooga has not only won every game this tournament as an underdog, but the Mocs have won each of their last eight games as an underdog. Chattanooga has lost just one game since January 25 and is 23-12 ATS on the season overall. UC Irvine is playing winning ball as well and is probably the more talented team overall, especially with its top-40 scoring defense. Still, Chattanooga has thrived in the underdog role time and time again. I’ll keep grabbing the points with Chattanooga.

Rating; 2 Units

An outright Villanova win would not surprise me, but this line has gotten too large to back the favorite based on points. Both of these have strong offenses with defensive inconsistency. USC has also faced a slightly tougher schedule this season (45th SOS on KenPom) than Villanova (70th SOS on KenPom. The Trojans also have the advantage of not going through a coaching change. I can see this game being decided in the final minute, so I will take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The underdogs have won three of the Nets' last four games. While the Timberwolves have lost three of their last four games as favorites after coming off overtime and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games after coming off overtime. Additionall, the Nets have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games at Barclays Center when playing with a rest advantage.

Rating: 2 Units

The Grizzlies are still playing without Brandon Clarke and Vince Williams Jr, while the Heat have ruled out Duncan Robinson and Kevin Love once again. The Grizzlies are as healthy as they've been all season, so it's hard to point a finger at why they've been struggling so much lately. In contrast, the Heat are still banged up, but they have sprung to life with six impressive wins in a row and are coming into this one fresh off an upset win over the red-hot Celtics. I get why the Grizzlies are slight favorites on the road, but the Heat are the team playing the better basketball at the moment, and I think they can pull off another upset at home in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Trail Blazers and Raptors keep fighting, despite neither having anything to play for at this stage of the season. Oddsmakers keep disrespecting the Raptors with these lines, and all they do is cover numbers. The Raptors are 46-29-1 ATS on the season, which makes them the second-best cover team in the NBA behind only the Thunder. The underdog has covered seven of the last 10 games between the Trail Blazers and Raptors. The Trail Blazers have lost 25 times on the road. Give me the Raptors and the points, something we’ve done a lot this season. 

Rating: 2 Units

With the way that Nestor Cortes looked in his season debut, allowing eight earned runs over 2.0 innings to the Yankees, I just can’t pull the trigger on the Brewers in this spot. I’ll take the plus money payout with the Reds to bounce back and win this game. What worries me most about Cortes is that he issued five walks in his first outing of the year. Clearly, his control is not dialed in. Perhaps the Reds can be patient and drive Cortes’ pitch count up and force an early exit, allowing them the opportunity to hit against a Brewers bullpen that’s 29th in ERA (8.89) and 27th in opposing average (.298).