|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-20-19||Florida International v. Louisiana Tech -9||Top||31-43||Win||100||94 h 5 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech -9 -109
This is a no-brainer for me to lay single digits at home with Louisiana Tech against the FIU Panthers. Something just isn't right with this FIU team. The Panthers are a team that was suppose to be a contender in C-USA with 16 starters back from a 9-win team. I just feel like the books are being slow to adjust.
They got embarrassed by Tulane 42-14 on the road in Week 1 and were a mere 3-point dog in that matchup. They then lost at home as a 7.5-point favorite to WKU. They finally get a win last week over New Hampshire, but only won 30-17 as a 13.5-point favorite.
The offense has not looked great, especially the passing game. Starting quarterback James Morgan, who was great for them last year is dealing with an ankle injury, but it felt like he was already losing time to backup Kaylan Wiggins. The defense has also been sub-par, especially against run.
I just don't see the Panthers being able to keep pace with J'Mar Smith and the Bulldogs offense. Smith has been playing at a high level. He had 331 yards and 2 scores against Texas, so it's hard to see FIU keeping in check.
Panthers come in averaging 307 ypg. There have been only 6 times as the head coach of the Bulldogs that Skip Holz has faced a team that averages 310 or fewer yards. Holtz and the Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in this spot with an average margin of victory of 21.6 ppg. Take Louisiana Tech!
|09-14-19||Oklahoma v. UCLA +24.5||48-14||Loss||-110||32 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Prime Time PUBLIC SHOCKER on UCLA +24½ -110
No way the public is going to want anything to do with UCLA against Oklahoma. The books know this and I think we are getting exceptional value here because of it. I think the Bruins aren't just going to cover, but give the Sooners a bit of a scare.
It's not easy for midwest teams to go out west and play in a different time zone. I also think it could be hard for Oklahoma to take this UCLA team seriously after watching them start out 0-2 with losses to Cincinnati and San Diego State. More so how bad the offense has looked. With the way they are scoring, it will be hard for them to see the Bruins keeping it close.
The thing is, both Cincinnati and San Diego State are two of the better Group of 5 teams in the country. They are also two teams built around their defense. Oklahoma is trying to get better on defense, but I don't think they are quite there. Chip Kelly is too good an offensive coach to not get that offense producing.
Sooners are 1-5 ATS last 6 road games vs a team with a losing home record and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a SU win by 20+ points. Take UCLA!
|09-14-19||Oklahoma State v. Tulsa +14.5||Top||40-21||Loss||-105||103 h 49 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa +14½ -105
Absolutely love the value here with Tulsa as a two touchdown dog at home against the Cowboys. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of the Golden Hurricane to start out 2019. Tulsa kept it closer than just about everyone expected in a 28-7 loss at Michigan State in Week 1 as a 23.5-point dog.
Instead of giving the Golden Hurricane's defense for going on the road and holding the Spartans to 28 points and just 303 total yards, they just wrote it off as Michigan State's offense being bad. That kinda doesn't work after watching the Spartans put up 51 points and 582 yards in a 34-point win at home against Western Michigan.
Tulsa's defense wasn't spectacular at San Jose State last week, but that second straight game on the road is always tough, plus it was a huge sandwich spot. Teams that can keep Oklahoma State's offense from getting into a rhythm tend to have a lot of success against them. Should be a rowdy crowd, as this is also their home opener. Outright win is definitely a possibility. Take Tulsa!
|09-14-19||USC v. BYU +4||27-30||Win||100||69 h 0 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Vegas Big Money HEAVY HITTER on BYU +4 -105
BYU is worth a look here as a home dog against the Trojans. It didn't take long for USC to go from being undervalued to overvalued. While the Trojans are off a 45-20 beating of Stanford, they did just lose their starting QB in JT Daniels to a season-ending injury. Not to mention the Stanford team they beat didn't have K.J. Costello.
Kedon Slovis' big day against the Cardinal is a big reason why people are back on the USC bandwagon. He lit up Stanford's defense for 377 yards and 3 scores. It was a great game, but he was also just 6 of 8 for 57 yards and a pick in a half against Fresno State.
I think Slovis is going to struggle to come anywhere close to those numbers against Stanford in his first true road game. BYU's defense is no pushover and are definitely battle tested having opened up the season against Utah and Tennessee.
Trojans are just 7-15 ATS under head coach Clay Helton as a favorite, 1-8 ATS last 9 non-conference matchups and 3-9-1 ATS last 13 on the road. Take BYU!
|09-14-19||Maryland v. Temple +7.5||17-20||Win||100||99 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Temple +7½ -110
Now is the perfect time to fade Maryland. The public was against the Terps last week at home against a ranked Syracuse team. Maryland went on to win 63-20 and now everyone is on the Terps. Even the polls jumped on board and put this team at No. 21 in the country.
I'm not saying Maryland isn't better than expected, but they should be laying this kind of a number on the road against a good program like Temple. The Owls are in the first year under Rod Carey, who came over after a successful stint at Northern Illinois. Carey took over a team that brought back 14 starters from a team that won 8 games.
I also think people underestimate the value of an early bye. Temple basically got to play an exhibition against Bucknell in Week 1 and then spend two weeks fixing what needed fixed. There's also going to be a little extra fire with Temple being a home dog and hearing all this hype around this Maryland team. Take the Owls!
|09-14-19||Ohio State v. Indiana +17||51-10||Loss||-105||65 h 29 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +17 -105
I just can't pass up Indiana at this price at home against the Buckeyes. The Hoosiers have been a thorn in the side of Ohio State for years now. Something that might surprise a lot of people given the talent gap between the two and the fact that Ohio State has won the last 24 meetings.
Indiana has covered 7 of the last 8 in the series. The only game they didn't cover they should have. Hoosiers ended up losing 49-21 as a 20-point dog in 2017, despite having a 21-20 lead in the 2nd half!
Indiana is also always gonna be undervalued as long as they are in the same division as Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State. No one is ever picking this team to win the East. Thing is, Tom Allen has really got them competitive and finally made them respectable on the defensive side of the ball.
I think that defense could give Fields and the Buckeyes offense some problems here, as they are going to feed off the energy of the home fans. I also think Hoosiers QB Michael Penix is on his way to being a star in this league. Take Indiana!
|09-13-19||North Carolina v. Wake Forest -2.5||18-24||Win||100||47 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - UNC/WF Friday Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Wake Forest -2½ -110
It's been quite a start for the Tar Heels in the first year with Mack Brown back as head coach. UNC knocked off South Carolina 24-20 as a 11.5-point underdog in Week 1 and then upset Miami 28-25 as a 4-point home dog in Week 2. I believe it has the Tar Heels overvalued here as a mere 2.5-point road dog against the Demon Deacons.
Wake Forest has started out 2-0 and this looks like one of the better teams they have had under Dave Clawson. I really like junior QB Jamie Newman and he's got some talented wide outs at his disposal. Newman will take on a Tar Heels secondary that will be without starting corner Patrice Rene.
As for the UNC offene, it's been a great start for true freshman QB Sam Howell, but I could see him struggling here. This is the first true road game for the Tar Heels and Howell will have to make do without starting center Nick Polino. Take Wake Forest!
|09-07-19||Tulsa -6 v. San Jose State||34-16||Win||100||87 h 31 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Tulsa -6 -110
I really like this spot for the Golden Hurricane. I look for Tulsa to have zero problem securing a win and cover at San Jose State on Saturday.
Tulsa lost their opener 28-7 at Michigan State, but that was to be expected. Golden Hurricane covered in the loss as a 24-point dog. I'm not worried about the fact that they had just 7 points and 80 total yards. That's not a good Spartans defense, it's elite this year.
At the same time the Tulsa defense more than held their own against Michigan State, limiting them to just 303 yards and 2.7 yards/carry on the ground. Keep in mind Tulsa brought back 8 starters from a defense that went from giving up 37.5 in 2017 to allowing just 29.6 ppg last year.
San Jose State beat Northern Colorado 35-18 and while they won by 17, it was too close for comfort against a FCS opponent. Northern Colorado was just 2-9 last year and didn't play a single FBS team. Spartans are now 1-7 ATS last 8 non-conference.
Golden Hurricane have covered 12 of their last 15 vs a team with a winning record and are 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Tulsa!
|09-07-19||Nevada +24.5 v. Oregon||Top||6-77||Loss||-110||106 h 38 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Vegas Undervalued DOG OF THE MONTH on Nevada +24½ -110
Even though the Ducks came up short in their Week 1 loss at Auburn, I think a lot of people were impressed with how well Oregon hung around with the Tigers. This is also a team that was getting a ton of hype preseason because of quarterback Justin Herbert.
I believe it has the Ducks way overvalued here at home against Nevada. This far from an easy spot for Oregon, who still has to be licking their wounds from that meltdown against Auburn. The Ducks led 21-6 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter and gave up the game-winning TD with 9 seconds left on a 26-yard pass by a true freshmen.
Nevada on the other hand comes in off a thrilling 34-31 win at home over Purdue. The Wolf Pack trailed 31-14 in the 2nd half. They tied it at 31-31 with less than a minute to play and won the game on a 56-yard field on the last play of the game.
I don't think Nevada is capable of winning this game on the road, but I do think the Wolf Pack have the offensive fire-power to easily cover the number here. Take Nevada +24.5!
|09-07-19||Arkansas +7 v. Ole Miss||17-31||Loss||-110||85 h 56 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Ole Miss/Ark SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas +7 -110
I like the value here with the Razorbacks as a decently priced road dog against the Rebels. I think Arkansas is a team flying under the radar after going just 2-10 in 2019. This is now year two under head coach Chad Morris and I expect big improvement. We saw it as his last job (SMU).
His first year Mustangs were just 2-10 SU. Next year they were 5-7, but most importantly a dominant 8-4 ATS (5-1 ATS on the road). I think this Arkansas team is going to be a similar covering machine.
I know the Razorbacks didn't look great in their win over Portland State in Week 1, but I think a lot of that was simply knowing they were the superior team and having their conference opener on deck. Neither of their transfer QBs played great in Ben Hicks and Nick Starkel, but I'm confident in their ability.
As for Ole Miss, they played Memphis tough on the road, but came up painfully short in a 15-10 loss. That's not an easy kind of loss to bounce back from. They were also lucky for it to be that close. Memphis outgained them 364 to 173. Ole Miss had fewer than 100 yards both passing and rushing. No way should this team be laying more than a field goal at home against another SEC team. Take Arkansas!
|09-07-19||Central Florida -9.5 v. Florida Atlantic||48-14||Win||100||84 h 28 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Central Florida -9½ -110
I look for UCF to have no problem here beating FAU by at least two touchdowns. I think the Owls are getting a little too much love here after covering a big number at Ohio State last week. FAU only had 228 total yards in that game and were fortunate to only lose by just 24 after falling behind 28-0 less than 10 minutes into the game.
I like Lane Kiffin and that team should be competitive in C-USA, but there's a much bigger gap in talent between FAU and UCF than the number here would suggest. While the Knights are ranked No. 18, it doesn't feel like there's as much hype with this year's team. No one is going to get excited about them beating Florida A&M 62-0.
I just think they got too much offense for the Owls to keep it close. No Mckenzie Milton, no problem. The duo of Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush and true freshman Dillon Gabriel threw for 295 yards and 5 scores.
These two teams played last year at Central Florida. The Knights won that contest 56-36. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the final score was something similar.
FAU is now just 1-4 ATS last 5 non-conference games and 0-5 ATS last 5 games in the month of September. Knights are 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road, 5-1 ATS last 6 after a win by 20 or more and 4-1 last 5 vs a team from C-USA. Take UCF!
|09-07-19||Texas A&M v. Clemson -17||10-24||Loss||-105||56 h 55 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Texas A&M/Clemson BIG GAME ATS WINNER on Clemson -17 -105
The betting public is all over the Aggies here. The narrative going into this one is how Texas A&M played Clemson better than anyone last year and will want revenge. The Aggies also looked good in their 41-7 win over Texas State last week.
On the Tigers side of things, they made easy work of Georgia Tech with a 52-14 win, but Trevor Lawrence didn't play well. Lawrence had 2 picks and was just 13 of 23 for 168 yards. I'm not reading anything into that. No way was Clemson the least bit threatened by the Yellow Jackets.
I think the Tigers simply went through the motions and were trying to be as conservative as they could offensively to not put too much on tape for the Aggies. I just think this is an elite offense and will have zero problem moving the ball against Texas A&M.
One thing people have to remember with last year's close call, is that was in College Station. Texas A&M was just 1-3 on the road last year and are just 18-38 ATS last 56 as a road dog and 4-17 ATS last 21 on the road with a total of 63 or more.
Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that averaged 35+ ppg the previous year and were up by 17 or more at the half in their last game are 27-6 (82%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Clemson -17!
|09-06-19||Marshall v. Boise State -10.5||Top||7-14||Loss||-106||83 h 58 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - 'Group of 5' Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Boise State -10½ -106
I like this Marshall team and could see them being a force in Conference USA this year, but I think Boise State is on a different level. I not only think the Broncos win at home Friday night over the Thundering Herd, I think they do so with ease.
You never really know what you are going to get from a true freshman quarterback until they play in a game. I don't think there's many concerns lingering for Boise State's Hank Bachmeier. The true freshmen threw for 407 yards on 30 of 51 passing in Week 1 and did it on the road against a Power 5 opponent in FSU. Even more impressive is he guided his team back from a 31-13 deficit.
Marshall only gave up 21.8 ppg and 339 ypg, but a lot of that is playing in C-USA. They gave up 37 points and 502 yards to NC State and 41 points and 454 yards to Va Tech. I think Boise will have no problem scoring 35+ here and I like the Broncos defense to keep Marshall to 20 or fewer, giving us plenty of breathing room to cash in a cover.
Broncos are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 after giving up 24 or more points in the 1st half of their last game and are 11-2 ATS last 13 off an upset win as an underdog. Take Boise State!
|09-02-19||Notre Dame v. Louisville +18.5||35-17||Win||100||20 h 38 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Notre Dame/Louisville ATS DESTROYER on Louisville +18½ -110
I think it's worth a shot to back the Cardinals as a three score dog against Notre Dame. While the Irish will have Ian Book back from last year's 12-1 playoff team, the defense loses a lot.
Notre Dame has to replace 3 NFL draft picks on that side of the ball and if not for the defense they would have never sniffed the playoffs. The Irish had 5 wins last year where they failed to score 25 or more points. They were a perfect 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Thats a big arrow pointing for regression in 2019.
The other big thing is I think people are sleeping on Louisville. I absolutely loved the hire of Scott Satterfield from Appalachian State. He brought over his DC,Bryan Brown and I think he does wonders here with the Cardinals defense.
The big thing I think people are overlooking is that the team quit on head coach Bobby Petrino, which is why the numbers were so bad across the board for this team. A lot more talent on the roster than you think and they got 16 returning starters. Take Louisville!
|09-01-19||Houston v. Oklahoma -21.5||Top||31-49||Loss||-115||152 h 8 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Houston/Oklahoma ATS HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma -21½ -115
I got no problem laying the points with Oklahoma. I think the betting public is going to be all over Houston given the hype around this team with Dana Holgorsen leaving West Virginia to take over. Holgorsen is known for his ability to get a lot out of the QB position and the Cougars have a good one in D'Eriq King.
However, Houston is out-classed big time in this one. I get Baker Mayfield and Kylar Murray were big time talents, but their success is 100% a result of Lincoln Riley's brilliant offensive mind. No reason not to expect this offense to be potent with Jalen Hurts running the show.
I also think Oklahoma's defense will be greatly improved under coordinator Alex Grinch. Houston on the other hand lost a ton on the defensive side of the ball. Sooners are going to score at will and I just don't see Houston being able to keep pace. Take Oklahoma!
|08-31-19||SMU v. Arkansas State -2||37-30||Loss||-109||101 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Arkansas State -2 -109
I think this is a great price to back Arkansas State at home against SMU. I think a lot of people see a team from the Sun Belt as a small favorite against a team from a bigger conference and look to take the other side.
This is a really talented Red Wolves team behind a underrated head coach in Blake Anderson. Last year they won 8-games with just 12 starters back, so no concern with only 13 starters returning in 2019. The defense should be really good and that's the difference maker here.
SMU does not have a great defense. They have allowed 35+ ppg each of the last 5 seasons. I just think Arkansas State will be able to get more stops and thus create some separation. SMU is also a team you want to fade away from home. Mustangs are just 2-8 last 10 ATS on the road. They are also just 1-4 ATS last 5 non-conference and 0-5 ATS last 5 games played in August. Take Arkansas State!
|08-31-19||Ball State +17 v. Indiana||24-34||Win||100||123 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Vegas Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Ball State +17 +100
Ball State is coming off a 4-8 campaign and aren't being given much of a shot at improving after starting quarterback Riley Neal and leading rusher Justin Gilbert both transferred to Power 5 programs.
It think it has the Cardinals way undervalued coming into 2019. Even with the losses of Neal and Gilbert, Ball State will be one of the most experienced teams in the country this year. They still bring back 17 starters and 55 lettermen.
This team was really hurt by injuries, which led to a poor finish. Ball State went on the road and only lost by a final score of 24-16 at Notre Dame, who finished the year 12-0 and made the playoffs. You don't do that without some talent. I also think there was a good chance that both Gilbert and Neal were going to lose their jobs.
Indiana has been competitive under Tom Allen, but have also gone just 5-7 in each of his first two years. The Hoosiers did beat Ball State at home by 28 last year, but only outgained the Cardinals by a little more than 100 yards.
This year the game is on a neutral site at Lucas Oil Stadium. I'll take the points with the underrated dog in this in-state rivalry. Cardinals have covered 6 of the last 7 vs a team from the Big Ten. Take Ball State!
|08-31-19||Ole Miss +6.5 v. Memphis||Top||10-15||Win||100||123 h 9 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Opening Week GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss +6½ -110
I think we are going to look back at this line later in the season and wonder what the heck were the books thinking making Ole Miss a dog against a non-Power 5 opponent. Especially one as talented as the Rebels.
Ole Miss struggled in SEC play last year, but this team went 4-0 in non-conference. The most impressive non-conference win came in Week 1, as they rolled Texas Tech 47-27 as a 2-point dog.
I know the record doesn't exactly reflect it, but there's a ton of talent on this Ole Miss roster and I love the two new coordinators they brought in to get the most of the talent on hand. Rich Rodriguez is new OC and Mike MacIntyre is the new DC. Two guys maybe didn't have the best run as head coaches, but are coaching what they know best in Oxford.
Not to take anything away from Memphis, who has been one of the better Group of 5 programs the last 5 years, but I think they are outclassed. Keep in mind they got annihilated 65-33 by Missouri out of the SEC last year. I just don't see the Tigers winning here by a touchdown and will certainly have some money line action on the Rebels. Take Ole Miss!
|08-31-19||Boise State +5.5 v. Florida State||36-31||Win||100||93 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Situational ATS SHOCKER on Boise State +5½ -109
Willie Taggart's first season at Florida State was a disaster from the start. The Seminoles who were ranked in the Top 20 to start the year, finished 5-7 and for the first time in forever they didn't make a bowl.
No disrespect to Taggart, but I don't see him being on the same level as Jimbo Fisher. It reminds me a lot of when Texas moved on from Mac Brown and people assumed Charlie Strong would get them back on track.
I just have a lot more trust in Boise State to start the season. The Broncos lose a great quarterback in Brett Rypien, but they also add in their highest recruited QB in school history in Hank Bachmeier. They also have a top tier defense that like FSU has NFL talent on that side of the ball.
I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Broncos won this game outright. Either way they are 11-2 ATS in the 13 games they have been listed as a dog under head coach Bryan Harsin. Take Boise State!
|08-30-19||Rice +23.5 v. Army||Top||7-14||Win||100||105 h 15 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Friday Night VEGAS INSIDER on Rice +23½ -104
Not only is Army being overvalued coming off their 11-win season in 2018, but this also an awful spot for a blowout.
The Black Knights have been a force under Jeff Monkin the last few years. They are 29-10 the last 3 seasons. Rice has 19 wins over the last 5 with a mere 5-31 mark the last 3 seasons. Easy to see how we get an inflated number.
Rice is now in year two under head coach Mike Bloomgren and I look for the former Stanford OC to have the Owls improved across the board in 2019. Getting all this extra time to prepare for the triple-option is huge.
As for the bad spot, no way does Army not look ahead to next week's game at Michigan. They have to be thinking the less they can put on tape for the Wolverines the better and it should also lead to starters getting pulled a little earlier in the 2nd half if things do get out of hand, opening up for a backdoor cover. Either way I like the Owls to keep this within the number. Take Rice!
|08-29-19||Florida International v. Tulane -2||14-42||Win||100||51 h 33 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Tulane -2 -103
Love the value here with Tulane as a small home favorite against the Panthers. While I got a lot of respect for Butch Davis and what he's doing at FIU, there's a definite talent gap here.
I also think the Green Wave are in a lot better spot than people realise. Tulane has really come on strong under current head coach Willie Fritz. He took over a team that was simply not competitive and has guided them from 4 to 5 to 7 wins the last 3 years. They made only their second bowl game since 2002 last year.
All signs point to the 2019 Green Wave being the best team yet under Fritz. That triple-option is tough to prepare for and they are adding a little more up-tempo to that this year. The defense is one of the better units in a pretty strong American Athletic Conference.
I look for Tulane to really dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and when you add in home field advantage, this is no-brainer. Take Tulane -2!
|08-29-19||UCLA v. Cincinnati -2.5||Top||14-24||Win||100||34 h 54 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - No Limit Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati -2½ -105
I think we are getting a gift here with Cincinnati laying less than a field goal at home. These two met in last year's season opener and the Bearcats won outright 26-17 as a 14-point dog.
While UCLA will be improved in year two under Chip Kelly, I still think they are a year or two away recruiting wise before he can really get this program back near the top of the Pac-12. Let's also not forget that Luke Fickell is now in year 3 at Cincinnati and this is the year it typically all comes together for new coaches.
Fickell has 14 returning starters, including a really talented sophomore quarterback in Desmond Ridders. The offense is going to be good and there are still major concerns with UCLA's defense. Fickell, who was the DC at Ohio State will have the defense ready. Bearcats went from allowing 31.8 ppg in his first year to only giving up 17.2 ppg. They also shaved 100+ yards/game off what they allowed.
You also have to factor in how hard it is to play on the road early in the season, especially the opener. Not to mention that when the Bearcats' put out a decent team, Nippert Stadium turns into one of the more tougher places to play. Take Cincinnati!
|08-24-19||Villanova v. Colgate -4||Top||34-14||Loss||-109||2 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Villanova/Colgate (FCS) TOP PLAY on Colgate -4 -109
Most are going to simply focus on the two FBS matchups between Florida/Miami and Arizona/Hawaii, but the real value on this first Saturday of college football is at the FCS level. I absolutely love Colgate as a small home favorite.
This Raiders team is the real deal. They got a lot of talent back on a defense that was outstanding in 2018. They held 5 different teams scoreless last year. They got back their QB in Grant Breneman (Patriot League Preseason Player of the Year) and ranked #13 in the FCS Poll.
Villanova is being picked to finish in the bottom half of the CAA. They got no shot here of keeping this within a touchdown. Take Colgate!
|01-07-19||Alabama v. Clemson +6||16-44||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
3* Clemson/Alabama ATS Winner on Clemson +
I'm not convinced Alabama is the better team in this matchup. I think Clemson is every bit on the same level as the Crimson Tide. However, I think the public perception all season has been this Alabama team is the best Nick Saban has fielded since he took over and there's no team that can hang with them.
I think that's definitely playing into this inflated number that the Crimson Tide are being asked to lay. This is now the 4th straight time that these two teams have met i the playoffs. While Alabama is 2-1 SU, Clemson is 2-1 ATS.
Not only do I see a ton of value with Clemson getting almost a touchdown, I like how the Tigers matchup with Alabama. I think this game will come down to which defense can impose it's will the most and I think with that defensive line of the Tigers, they will be the ones who control this game. Take Clemson!
|01-01-19||Washington +7 v. Ohio State||23-28||Win||100||419 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Rose Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Washington +
I just don't see the Buckeyes being that much better than the Huskies. Ohio State is getting all kinds of love because of how they finished the year, absolutely destroying rival Michigan at home to win the Big Ten East and then crushing Northwestern in the Big Ten title game. All of that is great, but it didn't get the Buckeyes into the playoffs.
Playing on New Year's Day is great, but in Columbus their expectation is to win it all every year and they certainly thought this year's team was capable of a championship. I just think this is a bit of a letdown for the Buckeyes. Plus you got all the distractions with Urban Meyer stepping down as head coach.
Even with all that, no one is picking the Huskies to cover, let along win the game. Washington didn't quite live up to the hype this season, but I think they are going to relish the opportunity to play an elite team like the Buckeyes and use it as a measuring stick going into next year. The Huskies have the defense to keep Haskins and that high-powered Ohio State offense in check and this Buckeyes defense has been vulnerable. This is simply too many points. Take Washington!
|01-01-19||LSU v. Central Florida +7.5||Top||40-32||Loss||-105||433 h 20 m||Show|
5* College Football BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Central Florida +
Time after time these Group of 5 teams that earn a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl show big time value in their bowl game. The perception that I think people have is that these teams aren't as good as people think because they don't play in a Power 5 Conference and will be no match against a top tier team from one of those conferences.
This is not only not true, but it also gives these small conference schools a ton of motivation to prove people wrong. On the flip side of this, I think it's hard for the Power 5 teams they are playing to give them the respect they deserve.
UCF will be without starting quarterback McKenzie Milton, but are in good shape with Darriel Mack Jr. They guy led the team from a double-digit deficit to defeat Memphis 56-41 in the American title game. All he did is throw for 348 yards 2 touchdowns, while rushing for 59 yards and 4 scores.
I'm not saying they are going to win the game, but I think they got more than enough offense to do so and I'm confident that if they do lose it will be by a touchdown or less. Take UCF!
|12-31-18||Michigan State +2 v. Oregon||6-7||Win||100||6 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAF RedBox Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Michigan State +
No one wants anything to do with backing this Spartans team with how they struggle to score against a NFL-caliber quarterback in Oregon's Justin Herbert. I believe it's created big time value here with Michigan State.
I think you could argue that the Spartans are the more talented team, have the better coach and play in the tougher conference. The one thing Oregon has an edge in is quarterback. I just don't think it's enough given the matchup.
Michigan State has faced the likes of Trace McSorely, Dwayne Haskins and Shea Patterson in the Big Ten. They aren't going to be the least bit intimidated by the Ducks. Those that think it will be easy for Oregon to move the ball are wrong.
The key here is while Oregon's defense has improved over the last couple of years, this is a defense that a limited Michigan State offense can have success against. All the players have been hearing is how bad the offense is. I would expect them to come out with a chip on their shoulder and surprise some people. The most important thing is they should be able to run the football. It might not be pretty, but I'm confident the Spartans win this one outright. Take Michigan State!
|12-31-18||Virginia Tech +7 v. Cincinnati||31-35||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Military Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on Va Tech +
I really like the value here with the Hokies getting a touchdown against the Bearcats. Virginia Tech showed they wanted to be in a bowl game by winning their final two games after a 4-6 start. Few teams were hit harder with injuries this year and not many were as young and inexperienced on the defensive side of the ball.
The month between off to prepare and get guys healthy will pay off big for Bud Foster's defense and I'm confident they will be able to slow down a pretty average Cincinnati offense. The Bearcats only averaged 25.3 ppg on the road. I also think Cincinnati is no where close to as good as people think. They won 10-games, but the schedule couldn't have been much easier. It's also worth noting the Bearcats are a mere 2-7 ATS last 9 bowl games. Take Virginia Tech!
|12-29-18||Notre Dame v. Clemson -11||3-30||Win||100||364 h 4 m||Show|
4* CFB Playoffs N Dame/Clemson VEGAS INSIDER on Clemson -
I got no problem here laying the double-digits with Clemson against Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl. I think people are sleeping on this Tigers team. They aren't just elite defensively, but they are elite offensively since they put in Trevor Lawrence at quarterback.
The suspension of defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence is getting a lot of publicity and is a big loss, but I don't think it's going to dramatically effect Clemson's ability to slow down the Notre Dame offense. The Tigers still got 3 future NFL draft picks playing in this game on the defensive line and I expect them to make like miserable for Ian Book.
There's also a big amount of skepticism for me when it comes to Notre Dame. It's not that I don't think the Irish are a good team, I just think the cards fell their way this season with so many typically good programs on their schedule having down years. I also just don't trust Brian Kelly and his ability to get his team ready for a big game.
I just don't see Notre Dame being able to keep pace with this Clemson offense. The Irish haven't seen anything even close to what they will see from the Tigers offense. Take Clemson!
|12-28-18||Iowa State +3.5 v. Washington State||26-28||Win||100||327 h 34 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Alamo Bowl NO-BRAINER on Iowa State +
I think the books have the wrong team favored in this one, but Washington State is getting love because they come in ranked No. 13 in the country. I get it, but I just think the Cyclones are without a doubt the better team here.
The Pac-12 has been a joke in bowl games and I really question how motivated the Cougars are to play this game. Washington State was a win at home over rival Washington in the finale away from playing for a Pac-12 title and a spot in the Rose Bowl. Cougars are also 1-3 in bowl games under head coach Mike Leach and they have been favored in all 4.
Iowa State was a win over Texas away from a spot in the Big 12 title game and have a chance here to reach 9 wins for the first time in almost 40 years. I really like their head coach Matt Campbell and believe they got one of the best kept secrets in the country in quarterback Brock Purdy. Take Iowa State!
|12-28-18||Syracuse +1.5 v. West Virginia||34-18||Win||100||213 h 25 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Camping World Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +
The Orange should have no problem taking down West Virginia. The Mountaineers are going to be playing without their best player in star quarterback Will Grier. They are also going to be without their left tackle. The fact that Grier isn't playing, speaks volumes to how little this game means to these players for West Virginia.
Syracuse was one of the surprise teams in the ACC and were clearly motivated to get to a bowl for the first time under head coach Dino Babers. Orange also haven't been to a bowl since 2013. This game means a lot these players and Syracuse now has a massive edge at quarterback with Eric Dungey. West Virginia won't be able to keep pace.
Mountaineers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 bowl games, so clearly this program doesn't value these games like others. Take Syracuse in what should be a blowout!
|12-27-18||Vanderbilt -3.5 v. Baylor||38-45||Loss||-105||321 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Texas Bowl ATS DESTROYER on Vanderbilt -
I think we are getting some really good value here on the Commodores as a small favorite against the Bears. I don't think there's any question here who the better team is. Baylor is a great story going from winning 1-game last year to making a bowl, but they really didn't beat anyone. Their two best wins were at home against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech late in the year.
The win over the Cowboys came in a perfect spot, as OK State was off a thrilling 38-35 win over then No. 6 Texas and had rival Oklahoma on deck. The win over the Red Raiders came in the finale and Texas Tech closed out the season 5 straight losses and it looked like they threw in the towel after back-to-back heartbreaking losses to Oklahoma and Texas.
Vanderbilt gets overlooked because they are considered one of the worst programs in the SEC, but this team is a lot better than it gets credit for. They won 3 of their final 4 just to make a bowl and haven't won a bowl game since 2013 (only second bowl trip in the last 5 years). They are also the much more physical team and should dominate the line of scrimmage here on both sides of the ball. Take Vanderbilt!
|12-27-18||Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +4||3-35||Win||100||299 h 51 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Pinstripe Bowl ATS BLOWOUT on Wisconsin +
There's a lot to like about the Badgers as a dog here against the Hurricanes. It's amazing that despite how disappointing a season Miami has had, they are still overvalued. If it wasn't for Pitt having already locked up the ACC Coastal and resting guys for the ACC title game, Miami likely would have finished the year 1-5 with their only win against a banged up Virginia Tech team.
I also just think there's a clear lack of motivation here by Miami. You got starting quarterback N'Kosi Perry being benched for Malik Rosier. All-American defensive tackle Gerald Willis is skipping the game to prepare for the NFL Draft.
I really think the loss of Willis is going overlooked, as his absence is going to have a huge impact on this game. Wisconsin is a running team and have one of the best backs in the country in Jonathan Taylor. Willis wasn't just an elite talent, but he made all the guys around him better because of all the attention he was given. I just don't see the Hurricanes being able to slow this Badgers offense down.
Lastly, Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst is a perfect 3-0 in bowl games with the Badgers, including a 34-24 win over Miami in last year's Orange Bowl. Take Wisconsin!
|12-22-18||Louisiana Tech +1 v. Hawaii||31-14||Win||100||14 h 17 m||Show|
4* Hawaii Bowl ATS HEAVY HITTER on LA Tech +
I thing the books have completely missed the mark in this one. Hawaii was a great story and got a lot of press early on with their 6-1 start to the season. At the time it looked like they had beat some decent teams, but that turned out to not be the case.
The competition picked up and they went just 2-4 over their final 6 games. Note that all 4 losses came by at least 18 points with a couple that were well over 30. Louisiana Tech is a lot better than their 7-5 record and without a doubt played the tougher schedule and looked better against the better competition they faced.
For me this comes down to defense. Bulldogs are simply going to have the easier time moving the ball. Hawaii gives up on average 35.4 ppg and 439 ypg. They allow on average 10 points/game and 70 yards/game more than what their opponent averages. They give up 5.0 yards/carry vs the run and 8.3 yards/pass attempt.
Louisiana Tech only allowed 23.7 ppg and held their opponents under their season averages for the year. I'm not saying the Bulldogs will shutdown Hawaii and that high-flying passing attack. They will simply be able to get enough stops to win here comfortably. Take Louisiana Tech!
|12-22-18||Buffalo v. Troy +2.5||32-42||Win||100||180 h 20 m||Show|
3* Dollar General Bowl Vegas DESTROYER on Troy +
I think there's a ton of value here with the Trojans at basically a pick'em and this game going UNDER the total set here by the books.
Buffalo suffered a crushing 30-29 loss to Northern Illinois in the MAC title game, despite having a 29-10 lead at the half. That loss will be a tough one for the Bulls to bounce back from and the even bigger thing is the MAC simply wasn't that good. We already saw Northern Illinois get rolled in their bowl game against UAB.
Troy won at Nebraska and were one of the best bets in the country this year with a 8-3 ATS mark. A big reason for that is their defense, which only gave up 21.2 ppg. I think they have no problem slowing down the high-powered attack of Buffalo.
The Bulls do have a good defense, so I'm expecting Troy to go off, which is why I think there's a big time correlation here with the Trojans and the UNDER
Troy is 12-3-1 ATS last 16 games overall and 42-20-2 ATS last 64 vs a team with a winning record. Bulls are 6-18 ATS last 24 off a conference loss by 7 or less and 0-5 ATS last 5 on a neutral site.
UNDER is 10-4 in Buffalo's last 14 off a loss and 6-0 in their last 6 road games off a conference loss. UNDER is also 12-4-1 in Trojans last 17 games played on fieldturf. Take Troy & UNDER!
|12-19-18||Ohio v. San Diego State +3||27-0||Loss||-100||110 h 37 m||Show|
4* Frisco Bowl Vegas NO-BRAINER on San Diego State +
No way should the Aztecs be getting points against a team from the MAC. I get San Diego State wasn't as good as they have been and closed out the year losing 4 of their last 5, they are still the better team in this fight and I like the fact that they are a dog, as that only adds motivation.
What gets overlooked with San Diego State's poor finish is the injuries this team had to deal with on offense and that 3 of the last 4 losses were by 4-points or less. This wasn't far off from another 10-win team under Rocky Long. They are healthy and matchup extremely well with the Bobcats.
I'm also not convinced Ohio is as good as people think. Sure, they won 5 of their last 6, but the MAC was down this year and we just saw the MAC Champs, Northern Illinois, get annihilated by UAB 37-13 last night. Eastern Michigan also lost to a team from the Sun Belt.
As for the Mountain West, Fresno State won by double-digits over Arizona State and Utah State rolled a good North Texas team 52-13 and the Aggies played the bowl without their head coach. Take San Diego State!
|12-08-18||Navy +7 v. Army||10-17||Push||0||29 h 1 m||Show|
3* Army/Navy No Doubt ATS DESTROYER on Navy +
This is just too many points to pass up in one of college football's most storied rivalries. No question Army has had the better regular-season, as Navy didn't even qualify for a bowl. With that said, records mean nothing in a game like this. If anything, the Midshipmen played the tougher schedule, so it's not as lopsided as you might think.
The biggest thing here with this touchdown spread is this game has been came right down to the wire each of the last two years. A big reason the games are competitive, is there's typically not a lot of scoring with two option teams. Not only does all that running eat up the clock, but these two teams are well-prepared defensively to defend the option.
Army has a bowl game against Houston to look forward to, while this is Navy's bowl game. I just think having lost the last two and being a dog in this fight for the first time in a long time, the Midshipmen aren't just a threat to cover, but win this game outright. Take Navy!
|12-01-18||Clemson v. Pittsburgh +28||42-10||Loss||-110||44 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +
This is just too much value to pass up on with the Panthers as a 4-touchdown dog against the Tigers. Unlike some other teams playing this Saturday, Clemson doesn't need style points to get into the playoffs. All they have to do is win this game and they are in, so there's no incentive to turn this into a blowout.
I think that definitely favors Pitt keeping this close and I'm a bit shocked the Panthers are getting no respect here. They only lost by 5-points on the road against Notre Dame. I know the final score says they lost 51-6 to Penn State, but that was a 14-6 game at the half and not nearly as big a gap in talent as the final score would lead you to believe. I know they lost their last game against Miami, but they zero reason to show up with this game on deck (already had Coastal locked up).
Let's also not ignore the schedule for Clemson. The ACC was way down this year, so they had a lot of blowout wins. I think the 3 best teams they played were Texas A&M, Syracuse and Boston College. They beat the Aggies by just 2, were lucky to beat the Orange by 4 and only defeated the Eagles by 20. Take Pittsburgh!
|12-01-18||Georgia +14 v. Alabama||28-35||Win||100||40 h 39 m||Show|
4* Georgia/Alabama SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Georgia +
This is the matchup everyone expected and I can't believe the value we are getting here with the Bulldogs. The media has claimed this Alabama team the winners of the national championship for months, but a two touchdown favorite on a neutral field against an elite team like Georgia is a direct result of the books inflating this number because of how good the Crimson Tide have been against the number and how much the public is going to flock to the No. 1 team in the country.
Georgia has been craving this opportunity since blowing that 2nd half lead to Alabama in last year's national championship game. I just don't see a lot different between the two teams. Much like last year when the Bulldogs laid an egg against Georgia, they had one this year at LSU. They have been 100% locked in since that loss to the Tigers and certainly have the talent to not just keep this close enough to cover, but win the game outright.
Keep in mind that Alabama was a mere 3.5-point favorite in the title game a year ago and only won by 3 in OT. No question Georgia players are going to know the number here and I think that only adds more fuel to the fire. Bulldogs have a defense that can slow down the Crimson Tide and without question the best offense Alabama will have seen so far this year. Take Georgia!
|12-01-18||Memphis +3.5 v. Central Florida||41-56||Loss||-115||5 h 57 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Memphis
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|12-01-18||Marshall v. Virginia Tech -4||Top||20-41||Win||100||97 h 0 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech -
It's been a disappointing season for the Hokies, but this is not near enough points for Virginia Tech to be laying at home against a C-USA opponent. I get that Marshall enters this game 8-3, but they didn't even win their own division in one of the lower ranked FBS conferences.
The Thundering Herd have also played a cupcake schedule. Out of their 8 wins, the only one against a team that currently has a winning record is last week's win over FIU. A game they won by a mere 3-points, despite recording two non-offensive touchdowns. They avoided all 3 of the top teams out of the C-USA West and in their step up game against C-USA East winner (Middle Tennessee), they lost by 10 at home.
Any thoughts that the Hokies aren't motivated to play because things didn't go their way can be put to rest after last week's 34-31 upset win at home over in-state rival Virginia. With that win, Virginia Tech simply needs to win this game at home to become bowl eligible. Justin Fuente is going to want those extra practices with this young and talented team and will have his team ready to go on Saturday.
Hokies are 6-2 ATS last 8 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 18-7 ATS last 25 off an upset win as an underdog. Herd are 1-6 ATS last 7 off a SU Win and a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 overall. Take Virginia Tech!
|11-30-18||Northern Illinois +3.5 v. Buffalo||30-29||Win||100||27 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Northern Illinois +
Everyone is on Buffalo in this game, yet the line keeps dropping in favor of the Huskies. That's because the sharps know the wrong team is actually favored in this game. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and most will just assume a 10-win team with an offense that averages 35.2 ppg is going to easily cover a short number like this.
I just think that's a mistake. Northern Illinois is way better than their 7-5 record would lead you to believe. Their 4 non-conference games were against Iowa, Utah, FSU and BYU. The only two games they lost in MAC play were the final two after they had the division title locked up. This team has been eying the Bulls for weeks now and I think they have the talent on the defensive side of the ball to really make life tough on Buffalo.
We did just see an Ohio defense, that I have rated slightly worse than the Huskies, hold the Bulls to just 17 points and 277 total yards in a 52-17 win. I'm not saying it's going to be that lopsided, but I think worst case here this thing is decided by a field goal with the Huskies likely winning outright. Take Northern Illinois!
|11-24-18||Notre Dame v. USC +11.5||24-17||Win||100||17 h 0 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on USC +
I really like the value here with USC as a double-digit home dog against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame needs here is a win here and they will secure a spot in the college football playoff. All the pressure is on the Irish and no one is giving the Trojans a chance here, especially off that ugly loss last week to UCLA.
I just think USC has had their eyes set on this game and the chance to spoil Notre Dame's perfect season and keep them out of the playoffs. We have already seen the Trojans beat a top team at home, as they knocked off Washington State earlier this year. They have lost ta home to ASU and Cal, but both could have went either way. I'm not saying USC pulls off the upset, but I think they keep it within single digits at the Coliseum. Take USC +11.5!
|11-24-18||Kentucky v. Louisville +17.5||56-10||Loss||-109||82 h 59 m||Show|
3* NCAAF In-State Rivalry ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +
I like the value here with Louisville as a big home dog against in-state rival Kentucky. I know it hasn't been pretty for the Cardinals in 2018 and they just lost at home to NC State by 42 last week, but I think some of that poor showing was a result of this team looking ahead to this showdown with the Wildcats.
I think we get a huge effort here from Louisville as they try to not only send their seniors out on a positive note, but also to put some kind of positive note on this disaster of a season. The even bigger key here is I don't think Kentucky is in a really bad spot. I think for them, they felt their season came to and end with that home loss to Georgia, where a win would have put them in the SEC Championship Game.
Just zero incentive here for them in these final few games and it's shown with their play on the field. They lost outright at Tennessee 24-7 and then barely beat Middle Tennessee 34-23 as a 16.5-point favorite. This is a team that couldn't score even when they were playing well, but they aren't playing with the same energy and effort on defense, which is what I believe will keep them from covering this big number. Take Louisville!
|11-24-18||NC State v. North Carolina +7.5||34-28||Win||100||30 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on North Carolina +
I really like the value here with the Tar Heels as a decently priced home dog against in-state rival NC State. North Carolina comes into this game sitting at 2-8 and having lost 6 straight games in ACC play. While the losses have continued to pile up, the Tar Heels have been extremely competitive of late. Their last 5 losses are all by 10-points or less and they could have won all 5 of those games.
I expect this team to come out extremely motivated for this one. Not only are they going to want to play well in their final home game of the season, but they haven't beat NC State on their home field since 2012. Not to mention, the Wolfpack have won the last two in the series.
I just don't think this year's NC State is as good as people think and have no business here laying this big a number on the road. The Wolfpack just recently lost at home to Wake Forest 27-23 as a 18.5-point favorite and their only two wins in their last 5 games are against FSU and Louisville.
The most recent was a blowout win and cover at Louisville, but note that NC State is just 11-28 ATS in their last 39 off a conference road win. Tar Heels are 22-7 ATS last 29 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 7-3 ATS last 10 conference games. Take North Carolina!
|11-24-18||Florida v. Florida State +7.5||41-14||Loss||-105||9 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida State +
The Seminoles have won 5 straight in this series and while this season has been a huge disappointment, FSU showed it means something to get to a bowl with their strong showing last week in their upset win at home over Boston College.
While the Seminoles are going to lay it all on the line to get that 6th win an extend their season, there's not a ton here for the Gators to be excited about and this is definitely not a team you can trust laying a number like this. We recently saw them win by just 4 as a 6.5-point home favorite vs S Carolina. The week before that they lost 38-17 as a 4.5-point favorite agains Missouri.
Seminoles have covered 9 of their last 12 outside of conference, including 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs the SEC. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 off a ATS cover. Take Florida State!
|11-23-18||Washington +3 v. Washington State||Top||28-15||Win||100||60 h 32 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +
The wrong team is favored in this one. It's been quite a run for Washington State this season, as no one outside of Pullman was expecting this team to be in this spot after what they lost from last year's team. I just don't think this is the 8th best team in the country. We are talking about a team that lost to a bad USC team and has three other wins by a touchdown or less.
Washington is the team that was suppose to be the talk of the Pac-12 this season, as a lot of people had them picked to make the playoffs. It just didn't work out like they hoped, but there's no denying the talent on this team. Not only are they playing for 1st place in the Pac-12 North and a spot in the conference title game, there's definitely motivation here to ruin Washington State's season and they would love nothing more than to celebrate on the Cougars home field.
I think the difference here will be the Huskies defense, which comes in allowing a mere 16.6 ppg and 318 ypg. Keep in mind Washington has had zero problem slowing down Mike Leach and this Washington State offense. In the last 5 meetings between these two rivals, the Cougars haven't scored more than 17 points in any single game. All 5 times the Huskies won by double-digits. Expect more of the same. Take Washington!
|11-23-18||Central Florida v. South Florida +14.5||38-10||Loss||-110||10 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmaker ERROR on South Florida +
UCF is getting way too much respect here on the road against the Bulls. The Knights are fresh off a huge 38-13 win over Cincinnati at home, which locked up a spot in the AAC title game. They annihilated the spread in that game, as they went off as a mere 6.5-point favorite. On the flip side the Bulls come in having lost 4 straight. It all adds up to this inflated line we are seeing.
I not only think the Bulls can keep this within two touchdowns, but if a few breaks go there way, I could see them winning this game outright. USF has the speed on both sides of the ball to matchup with the Knights and most importantly have the talent offensively to keep pace with Milton and that UCF offense.
All the pressure is on the Knights in this one, while USF has absolutely nothing to lose, yet will be extremely motivated (has to feel like their Super Bowl) to put an end to this nation-long winning streak of UCF. Bulls did beat the Knights the last time UCF came to South Florida (last regular-season loss for UCF) and we have seen the Knights struggle away from home. They were extremely fortunate to win at Memphis earlier this year, escaping with a 31-30 win. I see a similar game here that's decided in the final minutes. Take South Florida!
|11-22-18||Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +13||35-3||Loss||-105||21 h 48 m||Show|
4* Miss St/Ole Miss Egg Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Ole Miss +
This is just too many points for the Rebels to be catching on their home field in a big rivalry game like this. Sure Mississippi State has the better record and are the more talented team, but you can throw out all the stats when referring to the Egg Bowl. Just last year the Rebels won 31-28 at Mississippi State as a 14-point underdog. The year before that the Bulldogs won 55-20 as a 10-point dog.
I'm not saying Ole Miss will win this game outright, but it definitely shouldn't surprise you if they do, especially with what's at stake and this being on their home field. The Rebels need a win here to become bowl eligible, as they sit at 5-6.
Playing on the road has definitely not been the strength of this Mississippi State team, as they are just 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS away from home. The biggest problem for the Bulldogs has been the inability of the offense to put up points. I know Ole Miss doesn't have the best of defenses, but this one they have to feel like they can at least make some stops against.
On the flip side of this, I think the Rebels have the playmakers on offense to score against this talented Mississippi State defense. Take Ole Miss!
|11-20-18||Northern Illinois -5.5 v. Western Michigan||21-28||Loss||-105||9 h 16 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Northern Illinois -
I think we are getting a solid price here on the Huskies due to the fact that people will assume they want nothing to do with this game having already locked up a spot in next week's MAC title game. I'm not buying that at all.
I think having lost last week at home to Miami will have this team locked in for this contest. Keep in mind that while they lost the RedHawks, their defense was outstanding, as Miami won the game on a pick-six.
If they play any kind of defense in this one, they should win here by double-digits rather easy, as Western Michigan has completely thrown in the towel on the defensive side of the ball. In the Broncos last 3 game they have allowed 42 to Ball State, 59 to Ohio and 51 to Toledo. Take Northern Illinois!
|11-17-18||Duke v. Clemson -27||6-35||Win||100||105 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAF ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Clemson -
I'll lay the big number with the Tigers in this one. Clemson has covered 5 straight games and a lot of them haven't been close. They won by 61 as a 39-point favorite against Louisville a couple games back and fresh off a cover as a 17.5-point road favorite against a good Boston College team.
I think the fact that Duke comes in having won two straight including an upset win at Miami, people will talk themselves into the Blue Devils being able to keep this game close. I just don't see it. I think everyone talking about how Alabama is this unbeatable team and everyone else is just playing for 2nd has really lit a fire under this Clemson team.
Not only are they doing whatever they want offensively since inserting Trevor Lawrence as the starting quarterback, but the defense is playing up to their potential after a sluggish start to the season.
In their last 5 games combined they have given up 10 points in the 1st half of play and 7 of those came on a 74-yard punt return in last weeks game against BC. Might I mention those were the only points they gave up in that entire game. I don't see Duke getting more than 14 and the Tigers scoring fewer than 42. Take Clemson!
|11-17-18||Boston College v. Florida State +1||21-22||Win||102||20 h 33 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State +
This is the perfect spot to jump on the Seminoles at home against the Eagles. There's no denying it's been a miserable season for Florida State, but I think there's still some fight left in this team and they need to win their last 2 to become bowl eligible.
They couldn't be catching Boston College at a better time. The Eagles are in a massive letdown spot, as they come in off a huge showdown against Clemson, where if they would have won, they would be looking at a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Now there's nothing to play for but pride and I just don't see them being interested in this one. Take Florida State!
|11-17-18||USC v. UCLA +3||27-34||Win||106||30 h 9 m||Show|
3* USC/UCLA PAC-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA +
The fact that the books are begging you to take USC, tells you all you need to know about what the right side is in this one. UCLA might be sitting at 2-8 and have lost 3 straight, but they aren't just playing for this season. This is year one under Chip Kelly and they need some positives to take into next year.
They have been a lot more competitive of late. While they lost 42-21 at Oregon, they actually outgained the Ducks 496 to 492 with 29 first downs to Oregon's 20. Last week they lost 31-28 at ASU were right there in total yards 480-439. I know USC is down, but getting a win over that program would be huge for Kelly in recruiting and I also think there's more drama going on behind the scenes at USC, as I think Clay Helton is about to get shown the door.
Bruins have gone an impressive 12-3 ATS in their last 15 off back-to-back conference losses where they allowed 31+ points and 9-1 in their last 10 after giving up 31+ points in 3 straight. Take UCLA!
|11-17-18||West Virginia v. Oklahoma State +7||41-45||Win||100||18 h 40 m||Show|
3* W Virginia/OK State BIG 12 PLAY OF T DAY on Oklahoma State +
I like the Cowboys to keep this thing closer than expected, as I think they got a great shot of winning this thing outright. Oklahoma State nearly upset rival Oklahoma last week. I think the perception here is they are in-store for a letdown off that close loss to the Sooners.
I don't see that at all. I think this team will be extremely motivated to ruin the Mountaineers season and secure a bowl bid on their home field. West Virginia has all the pressure on them in this one and these late road trips are when we typically see some big upsets. I'm still not completely sold on this Mountaineers team. They were dominated in a loss at ISU and should of lost at Texas.
Cowboys are 55-35 ATS in their last 90 with a total of 63 or more and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after two straight games where 60+ points were scored. Take Oklahoma State!
|11-17-18||Penn State -27 v. Rutgers||Top||20-7||Loss||-110||86 h 16 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State -
I get that Penn State is essentially playing for pride at this point, but I really like how this team responded from that ugly loss to Michigan, beating Wisconsin by double-digits. The Nittany Lions haven't laid it on an opponent since they throttled Illinois 63-24 way back on Sept. 20th.
I just think this team is going to be looking to take out some of their frustration with how the season has gone in this one. I also don't think there's anything Rutgers can do to stop it. I think the Scarlet Knights have accepted this season for the disaster that it is and just aren't that motivated to play these final two games.
Sure they might come out with some fight given it's their last home game, but once they get down by two scores, they aren't going to hesitate to throw in the towel. For a team like Rutgers to keep it close against an offense like Penn State, you have to be able to throw the football and the Scarlet Knights have one of these worst passings attacks in the country, which is averaging 143 ypg and own a 49.7 completion rate.
Nittany Lions are 21-4 ATS in their last 35 off a conference win, while Rutgers is a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a loss by 35 or more (fell 42-7 to Michigan last time out). Take Penn State!
|11-17-18||Michigan State +1.5 v. Nebraska||6-9||Loss||-105||14 h 47 m||Show|
3* Nebraska/Mich St BIG 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +
Great price here to back the Spartans on the road against the Cornhuskers. Michigan State has one of these best defenses in the country. The Spartans come in allowing 19.7 ppg and just 327 ypg. They are as good as it gets against the run, as they are giving up 2.5 yards/carry and a mere 76 yards/game.
That's should be the difference here. With winds expected to be blowing at close to 20 mph, it's going to be really hard for either team to establish anything in the passing game. That really negates the big play potential for this Nebraska offense. The Cornhuskers defense has allowed at least 28 in every Big Ten game and are giving up 38.9 ppg in conference play. As poor as the Spartans are offensively, they will be able to score enough to get the win. Take Michigan State!
|11-16-18||Boise State v. New Mexico +20||45-14||Loss||-110||32 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Late Night ATS Bailout BLOWOUT on New Mexico +
There's too much value here to pass up with the Lobos as a near 3-touchdown dog on their home field. This is just a classic example of the nationally ranked and house hold name being overvalued in a prime time game.
Not the easiest of spots for the Broncos. Boise State is fresh off that huge win at home over Fresno State, where they went off as a dog. Now they got a massive game on deck against Utah State. I get they have to win this one for next week's to matter, but hard for them to not look ahead to that one.
Given that game on deck, you have to think they just want to get a win and get out. Once they get a comfortable lead, they are going to have to think about resting guys and making sure no one gets hurt. So if things do get out of hand, the backdoor should be open for the Lobos.
New Mexico played Boise tough on the road last year, losing by 14 as a 17-point dog. I get they are 3-7 and don't have bowl eligibility to play for, but teams in the MWC get up for Boise and they know what's at stake for the Broncos in this game.
Lobos come in having lost 5 straight and are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games off 3 straight conference losses. We saw this exact same trend cash in their last home game in a cover against San Diego State. A team that beat Boise earlier this year. Take New Mexico!
|11-15-18||Florida Atlantic +3.5 v. North Texas||38-41||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
3* FAU/N Texas NCAAF Weeknight DESTROYER on Florida Atlantic +
This North Texas team can't be trusted and are getting too much respect here against Lane Kiffin's Owls. It's been a bit of a disappointing season for FAU, but it's not as bad as you might think given their 5-5 record. Two of those losses were on the road against Oklahoma and UCF. They also lost by 1 at Middle Tenn and fell to quality teams in Marshall and La Tech.
Most are going to take North Texas here because the perception is that they will be out for revenge from last year's two losses to FAU, including the one most remember in the C-USA title game. I just don't think it's going to be that easy for the Mean Green, who just lost outright as a 15.5-point favorite to the Monarchs.
Owls on the other hand are coming in off arguably their best 2-game stretch of the season, as they went on the road and rolled FIU 49-14 and followed that up with a 34-15 win against WKU. I don't think it will be that lopsided against North Texas, but I do expect them to win this one outright. Take FAU!
|11-13-18||Western Michigan -8.5 v. Ball State||41-42||Loss||-110||2 h 44 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Western Michigan
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|11-10-18||Clemson v. Boston College +20||27-7||Push||0||22 h 10 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +
I just think the price is right to take a shot on the Eagles here as a massive home dog. Clemson couldn't have looked much better since that scare against Syracuse at home. They beat Wake Forest 63-3, NC State 41-7, FSU 59-10 and Louisville 77-16. Impressive to say the least, but outside of the NC State game, those other 3 teams aren't very good and NC State just lost at home to the Demon Deacons with WF playing a backup QB.
Simply put, the ACC is way down this year, but Boston College is one of the better teams in this league. I think Chestnut Hill is one of the more difficult places to play in the ACC, especially when you got a good BC team hosting a top tier opponent like the Tigers. One thing is for sure, the Eagles are going to play their hearts out with a chance to potentially move into the drivers seat to the ACC Atlantic title.
I don't think that's going to happen, but with the way BC can run the football, they should be able to keep that Clemson offense off the field and I think the Eagles defense will be aided by mother nature, as temps will be in the high 30's with winds at close to 15 mph.
Wouldn't be the first time the books have undervalued BC. Eagles are 15-6 ATS last 21 games overall, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 off a cover and 11-1 in their last 12 vs a conference opponent. Take Boston College!
|11-10-18||Florida State +18 v. Notre Dame||13-42||Loss||-105||59 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAF NON-CONF (FSU/ND) GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State +
As difficult as it might be to take Florida State, I really like the Seminoles to give the Irish a major scare on Saturday. Not only is Notre Dame starting to feel the pressure of each game down the stretch, but now they have to play without starting quarterback Ian Book, who is dealing with a rib injury.
It will be back to Brandon Wimbush for the Notre Dame offense and while he's experienced and fully capable of guiding this team to a victory, the offense won't be as potent with him under center. While the Irish have everything to lose, FSU has nothing to lose at this point and that makes them a dangerous team. Expect them to go for it on 4th down and toss in a few trick plays to try and pull off the upset and keep slim homes of making a bowl game alive.
Irish have historically struggled against the number this time of the year. Notre Dame is just 14-31 ATS in their last 45 home games in the month of November and 7-18-1 in their last 26 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Look for the Seminoles to keep it closer than expected. Take Florida State!
|11-10-18||Temple +4.5 v. Houston||59-49||Win||100||21 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple +
I like the value here with Temple as a dog against the Cougars. I think people are just assuming that the Owls aren't going to show up for this one off that heartbreaking loss at UCF. At the same time, they are writing off Houston's ugly 45-31 loss at SMU as a bad showing in a game they didn't have to win (still control their own destiny for ACC West title).
I just think the books are begging for you to take Houston in this one, when Temple might be the better team. The Owls have been a different team since their 0-2 start and are 5-2 in their last 7 with their only losses AT BC and UCF. I think the defense for Temple can slow down this Cougars attack and the Owls will be able to move the ball against a Houston defense that has allowed 35+ in each of their last 3 games.
Owls are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 conference games, 13-5 ATS last 18 vs a team with a winning record, 41-19 in their last 60 road games and 21-7 ATS last 28 off a SU loss. Take Temple!
|11-10-18||Oregon v. Utah -4||25-32||Win||100||43 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah -
I think we are getting a great price here on the Utes as a small home favorite against the Ducks. I know Utah is coming off a loss at ASU and in the defeat lost starting quarterback Tyler Huntley and then later in the week saw leading rusher Zack Moss go down to a season-ending injury. Even with those two big injuries, I like Utah to win this game and cover at home.
Oregon had everything in front of them when they pulled off the big upset win at home over Washington, but the Ducks lost the next week at Washington State and just haven't been the same. They followed up the loss to the Cougars with an awful 44-15 loss at Arizona and while the rebounded with a 42-21 win at home against UCLA, they had 9 fewer first downs than the Bruins and UCLA outgained the Ducks 496-492.
Utah backup quarterback Jason Shelly didn't look great in relief against the Sun Devils, but that was on the road against a good defense and he was pressed into a tough spot playing from behind. Oregon doesn't pose near the threat defensively and he'll be much better prepared. There's also still a lot still at stake for Utah, who is sitting tied on top the Pac-12 South at 4-3 with USC and Arizona.
Ducks are 2-10 ATS last 12 conference road games and 0-6 ATS last 6 road games after playing 3 straight conference games (later in the year). Oregon is also a mere 2-10 ATS last 12 off a home win and 0-7 off a win by 21 or more. Take Utah!
|11-10-18||Mississippi State +24.5 v. Alabama||0-24||Win||100||53 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +
It would be easy to want to jump on Alabama here after watching them go into LSU and beat the No. 3 team in the country 29-0 with a 576 to 196 edge in total yards and 29 first downs to the Tigers 13. I just think people don't understand how difficult it is to play after investing so much in the game the previous week, especially this late in the year.
Alabama head coach Nick Saban has came out and said just how much that game against LSU meant to him and his team and how hard it will be for them to emotionally get up for the Bulldogs. They have traditionally played Mississippi State after facing LSU. That was the case last year and they were fortunate to win. They were down 7 in the 4th quarter and won the game on a TD with 25 seconds to play.
While the Bulldogs are 7-3 and sitting at No. 16 in the country, they haven't been as good as some people expected, at least on the offensive side of the ball. The defense has been out of this world good. Mississippi State has allowed more than 20 points once all season and that was more a result of the offense putting the defense in a bad spot.
With no shot at winning the conference and a bowl game already locked up, this is the Bulldogs Super Bowl of 2018. I don't know if they have enough offense to pull it off, but I love them to keep it within the number. Take Mississippi State!
|11-10-18||TCU +12.5 v. West Virginia||Top||10-47||Loss||-105||75 h 18 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on TCU +
No one is going to give TCU any shot of winning this game and with all the pressure that's on West Virginia to win out and potentially make the playoffs, I think this is the definition of a trap game. Keep in mind that the Mountaineers are off that thrilling 42-41 win at Texas, where they scored a touchdown in the final seconds and instead of playing for overtime, they went for two and got it.
Easy for them to look past the Horned Frogs, who were just 1-5 in their previous 6 games before sneaking out a win at home against Kansas State thanks to a missed extra point by the Wildcats. I know it's nothing to be impressed with, but any kind of momentum is a big positive for TCU going into this fight.
The Horned Frogs are going to be extremely motivated here to play spoiler and they still need to win 2 of their final 3 to get bowl eligible. I don't know if they can pull off the upset, but it's definitely not out of the question with how strong they are defensively.
The one game that West Virginia lost was against Iowa State, who I think is right there with TCU for the best defense in the Big 12. The Cyclones didn't just keep Will Grier and the Mountaineers in check, they held them to 9 first downs and 152 total yards. Horned Frogs are 28th in the country vs the pass (190.7 ypg), which is where you have to be strong to slow down WV. Look for this to be a low-scoring game and for the Horned Frogs to keep it close. Take TCU!
|11-10-18||Ohio State v. Michigan State +4||26-6||Loss||-105||14 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +
I'm going to grab the points here with the Spartans at home. Everyone just keeps assuming Ohio State is going to morph into this different team when they haven't played well in quite some time. I think they fooled some people with wins over TCU and Penn State, two games they could have easily lost. They didn't play well at home against Minnesota, got annihilated at Purdue and barely held on to beat a 1-win Nebraska team everyone thought they would destroy (17-point favorite).
Now they are laying points on the road against a Michigan State team that really thrives in the underdog role, especially at home. I know they lost as a home dog to Michigan a few weeks back, but I think the Wolverines are way better than the Buckeyes. These two teams have played 3 common opponents in league play. Michigan State is 3-0 and Ohio State is 2-1. Spartans have allowed 17.0 ppg and Buckeyes 33.7 ppg.
Not to mention the extra motivation that the Spartans are going to have after last year's embarrassing 48-3 loss at Ohio State. I'll take the points as insurance, but I like home dog to win outright. Take Michigan State!
|11-09-18||Louisville v. Syracuse -20||23-54||Win||100||58 h 17 m||Show|
4* Friday Night ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Syracuse -
This one is pretty straight forward. Only one of these teams is interested in playing football in the final month of the season. Louisville has hit rock bottom following the departure of Lamar Jackson and it feels like the team has quit on head coach Bobby Petrinio.
The Cardinals haven't won a game since beating WKU by a mere 3-points as a 23.5-point favorite in the middle of September. They are an atrocious 1-8 ATS this season, as the books just can't give them enough points. A true sign of a team not caring is defense and Louisville is allowing a ridiculous 48.7 ppg and 501.2 ypg in ACC play, where they are getting outscored by more than 27 ppg.
I just think with how potent the Orange are offensively and the defense figuring to play well in front of a rowdy home crowd for a prime time game, this is going to get ugly in a hurry. Don't think for a second Dino Babers and his players haven't forgot about how this series has gone the last two years. Louisville whooped them 62-28 on their home field in 2016 and last year beat by 46. Take Syracuse!
|11-07-18||Toledo v. Northern Illinois -3.5||15-38||Win||100||7 h 5 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Northern Illinois
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|11-04-18||Utah State v. Hawaii +18||56-17||Loss||-109||2 h 32 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Hawaii
|11-03-18||Louisiana Tech v. Mississippi State -23.5||3-45||Win||100||59 h 55 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Big Money PLAY OF THE DAY Mississippi State -
I think a lot of people will consider grabbing the points with Louisiana Tech, as they are going to feel like this is a big trap game for the Bulldogs. Technically speaking it is, as Mississippi State is off the big home win over Texas A&M and has a game at Alabama on deck next Saturday. I just don't think a less than 100% Bulldogs team can win here by at least 4 touchdowns.
A lot of people will point to how well La Tech played in their near upset win over LSU earlier this season, but that's the exact reason why I don't think Mississippi State is going to take this team lightly. Keep in mind LSU was up 24-0 midway thru the 3rd quarter before taking their foot completely off the gas.
I also think the fact that the Bulldogs had lost 3 of their previous 4 before beating Texas A&M, is another reason why they will show up here. It's fun beating up on lessor competition, especially when things aren't going your way. I think the offense is desperate to have one of those breakout games where they score 50+ points and that defense front should make life miserable for the visiting Bulldogs. Take Mississippi State!
|11-03-18||Utah v. Arizona State +7.5||20-38||Win||100||81 h 7 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +
Utah is simply getting way too much love right now. The Utes have won and covered 4 straight. The books have taken notice and really inflated this line, as there's no way Utah should be laying over a touchdown on the road to Arizona State.
The Sun Devils have been hit or miss, but they come into this one off a 3-point win at USC as a 3-point dog. They are just 2-4 in their last 6 games, but all 4 losses have come by a touchdown or less. It's also been a brutal stretch, as they have hosted Michigan State and Stanford, while playing no the road against the likes of San Diego St, Washington, Colorado and USC.
I like this Utah team, but I think people are jumping the gun a little bit on this team. The win at Stanford was impressive, but they also caught the Cardinal off back-to-back massive road games against Oregon and Notre Dame. The other 3 wins were at home against Arizona and USC and at UCLA. This team lost by 14 at Washington, barely beat Northern Illinois on the road and lost at Washington State.
I think Arizona State has a legit shot at winning this game outright. Sun Devils are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against strong defensive teams like Utah, who allow 4.5 or less yards/play and have won these games outright by an average score of 31-24. Take Arizona State!
|11-03-18||Kansas State +8.5 v. TCU||13-14||Win||115||22 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Kansas State +
I just think there's way too much wrong with this TCU team for them to be laying over a touchdown to anyone in the Big 12. I get Kansas State isn't that good, but the Horned Frogs just lost to Kansas. The only way a Gary Patterson coached team loses to a team like Kansas, is the players have given up on themselves and each other.
It's not easy for these kids to keep fighting when things go so badly, especially when the expectations are so high coming into the year. TCU played in the Big 12 title last year and they were thinking conference title. They go into November not even remotely in the conversation. They haven't covered since Sept. 7th at SMU. Now is not the time to play the due factor with this team. They might win, but I'm confident it will be by 7 or less if they do. Take Kansas State!
|11-03-18||UL-Lafayette +10 v. Troy||16-26||Push||0||22 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas Line MISTAKE on Lafayette +
Great value here with the Ragin' Cajuns as a double-digit dog against the Trojans. Lafayette has been playing well. They have won 3 of their last 4 with the only loss coming on the road against App State by a final of just 27-17.
They more than showed they could hang with the top tier talent in this league. Keep in mind with their 4-4 overall record. They played Alabama and Mississippi State on the road and happened to lose the game in between those two SEC powers to Costal Carolina (by only 2).
Troy's a good team, but this is too many points for them to be laying in this spot. While this game could have a big impact on the Sun Belt race, it's going to be hard for Troy to not look ahead to next week's showdown at Georgia Southern. A game they have to feel like they have to win to have any real shot at the East Division title.
I think this is going to be a very competitive game that's decided late. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Ragin' Cajuns won here outright. Take Lafayette!
|11-03-18||Georgia Southern v. UL-Monroe +7.5||25-44||Win||100||23 h 31 m||Show|
3* Group of 5 PLAY OF THE DAY on UL-Monroe +
Hard to not like the value here with the Warhawks getting over a touchdown at home against the Eagles. The public doesn't follow the Sun Belt closely, but most average fans are aware of the fact that Georgia Southern knocked off then No. 25 Appalachian State last week. The Eagles didn't just win, they dominated 34-14 as a 11-point dog.
I think people have a hard time not betting teams off a big upset win, especially at what to them looks like a favorable price. Not to mention the Eagles have gone 7-1 ATS on the season. The books set a bad line last week on Georgia Southern and have made up for it here.
This is a big sandwich game for Georgia Southern, not only are they off the big win over App State, but they have a massive game on deck against Troy that they have to win. A loss here and a win over Troy they still control their own destiny for the East title and spot in the Sun Belt title game. I think the Warhawks win this one outright. Take ULM +7.5!
|11-03-18||Oklahoma State v. Baylor +7||31-35||Win||100||20 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor +
I think this is the prime spot to fade Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are fresh off that upset win at home against Texas. They put everything they had into that game. Now they are a touchdown favorite on the road to a Baylor team that was just annihilated by West Virginia last week 58-14. A game a lot of people watched, with it being a weekday matchup.
I think those two outcomes have created amazing value on the Bears, who I think are going to win this game outright. Baylor is much-improved over last year and just a couple weeks ago they nearly knocked off Texas on the road. As for Oklahoma State, this team has disappointed more than it's flashed what we saw against the Longhorns. The week before they got rolled 31-12 at Kansas State and have lost at home to ISU and Texas Tech.
I like Baylor head coach Matt Rhule and believe it's going to be just another year or two before he's got this team competing at the top of this conference. I'm willing to bet he has his team fired up after that ugly performance and I just don't see the Cowboys being able to match that intensity on the road, especially with a certain in-state rival on deck named Oklahoma. Take Baylor!
|11-03-18||Rutgers v. Wisconsin -28.5||Top||17-31||Loss||-110||48 h 16 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin -
I got no problem here laying the big number on the Badgers at home. Wisconsin will have zero problem here winning by more than the spread against a horrible Rutgers team. The Badgers come into this one off a 31-17 loss at Northwestern, which really put them behind the 8-ball in the Big Ten West, but they still aren't out of it.
Either way, Wisconsin isn't a team to lay down when things aren't going their way. If anything, the Badgers are going to be that much more locked in for this Saturday's game and that's bad news for a Rutgers team that's 0-5 in conference play and haven't won since beating Texas State at home in their season opener.
I think the only reason this line isn't more, is because Rutgers only lost by 3-points at home to Northwestern in their last game and they are off a bye. I look more at how this team lost by by 49 at Ohio State this season and that's not their only bad showing on the road. They lost by 41 at Kansas and by 27 at Maryland.
Rutgers is getting outscored by an average of 35 ppg on the road (47-8) and Wisconsin is beating teams by an average of 21 (38-17) at home. It's also worth noting that the Scarlet Knights haven't scored more than 17 points in their last 7 games. I don't think they get to that mark and the Badgers should be pushing 50. Take Wisconsin!
|11-03-18||Nebraska +18 v. Ohio State||31-36||Win||100||48 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Power 5 Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +
I think the perception here is that Ohio State is going to return from their bye week and take out all their frustration from that ugly loss at Purdue on Nebraska. I would expect Ohio State to win this game, but I don't see them pulling away by more than 3 scores.
I know it was a struggle for Nebraska to win a game, but they have really played well in several games. Prior to getting that elusive first win over Minnesota, they blew a late lead in a 34-31 loss at Northwestern and they covered as 18.5-point dogs in a loss at Wisconsin.
The Cornhuskers are also coming out of their bye and while this is a must-win for Ohio State if they want to have a realistic shot of winning the Big Ten East and making the playoffs, I think it will be hard for them to take this Nebraska team seriously and not look ahead just a little to next week's game at Michigan State.
Keep in mind it wasn't just one bad game at Purdue. Ohio State didn't look all that great in their previous game at home against Minnesota, winning by a final score of 30-14 as a 29-point favorite. They haven't covered a game since beating Tulane 49-6 back in late September.
Over the last 5 seasons, home teams that lost by 28 or more points to the spread in their previous game are a mere 6-28 (18%) ATS in weeks 10 through 13. Take Nebraska!
|11-03-18||South Carolina v. Ole Miss +1||48-44||Loss||-100||20 h 32 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ole Miss
I like the value here with Ole Miss as a home dog to the Gamecocks. I know it's basically a pick'em but don't think for a second the Rebels don't know who is favored to win. I just think Ole Miss is better than they get credit for and should be at least a field goal favorite here against South Carolina.
The Gamecocks barely won at home last week against Tennessee and really haven't lived up to their expectations. They came into this season thinking SEC East title. That's pretty much out the window and I think for them it's now all about the two big road games to end the season with Florida and Clemson. The Gators are up next week and I think South Carolina has a hard time matching the intensity of the Rebels.
Fading the Gamecocks off a win has been very profitable. South Carolina is 0-5 ATS last 5 off a SU win. Look for them to make it 0-6 after Saturday. Take Ole Miss!
|11-03-18||Syracuse -4.5 v. Wake Forest||41-24||Win||100||18 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Early Bird ATS SMASH on Syracuse -
I think we are getting a great price here to back Syracuse. This has already been a special season for the Orange. They have secured their first bowl bid since 2013 and are ranked in the Top 25 for the first time since 2001.
They are 6-2 and have to be thinking double-digit wins right now. I just don't see them laying an egg here against Wake Forest and I feel like that's the only way they don't win by at least a touchdown. Don't be fooled by the Demon Deacons 56-35 win at Louisville last week. The Cardinals are trash and playing like it. This is still the same team that lost 63-3 at home to Clemson, lost by 21 to an awful FSU team and lost by double-digits at home to BC.
The defense has been a major problem for Wake and will be picked apart by Eric Dungey and this Orange offense that has put up 91 in their last 2 games. Demon Deacons won't be able to keep pace. Take Syracuse!
|11-03-18||Michigan State v. Maryland +3||24-3||Loss||-100||2 h 52 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Maryland
|11-01-18||Temple +12 v. Central Florida||40-52||Push||0||5 h 12 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Temple
|10-31-18||Ball State +18 v. Toledo||13-45||Loss||-100||29 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Ball State +
I like the value here with the Cardinals as a 3-score underdog against the Rockets. Ball State is getting zero respect here from the books and a big reason for that is the injury to starting quarterback Riley Neal, who will not play in this one. That's a big loss for Ball State, but they got a capable backup in Drew Plitt, who has played in 4 games and flashed some potential.
I could see why you would hesitate to take the Cardinals if Toledo featured a great defense, but the Rockets have been pretty bad on that side of the ball this year. Toledo is 98th in the country against the run (186.4 ypg) and 112th against the pass (273.4 ypg). Not only should Ball State be able to score early and often, but if they do struggle, the backdoor figures to be wide open for a late cover.
I also think the injury to Neal could make it difficult for Toledo to give this Cardinals team their full attention. They have to feel like all they have to do is show up to get the win and making it even harder to give Ball State their full attention is a massive game on deck against Northern Illinois, which they need to win to have any shot at defending their MAC West title.
Cardinals have had a lot of success against the number at the Glass Bowl, as they have covered 7 of their last 10 visits to Toledo. The Rockets are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-4 in their last 4 off a game where they scored 40+ points. Take Ball State!
|10-30-18||Miami-OH +7 v. Buffalo||42-51||Loss||-104||19 h 24 m||Show|
4* Miami/Buffalo MAC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Miami +
Buffalo is getting way to much respect here at home against a good Miami team. Don't be fooled by the RedHawks 3-5 record. They went 0-4 in non-conference play, losing to the likes of Marshall, Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army. Their only loss inside conference play is a mere 1-point defeat at home to Western Michigan.
This team has been extremely undervalued since their 0-3 start and since losing their first 3, they have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS. The thing is Buffalo has been even better. The Bulls are 7-1 overall and have gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7. The public is fully on board with this team and to them it's not asking a lot to win by at least a touchdown.
I not only think the Bulls will struggle to cover this number, but I could easily see the RedHawks winning this game outright. These two teams have played two common opponents and Miami has looked better in each. The RedHawks went on the road and beat Akron 41-17, Buffalo only beat them 24-6 at home. Miami lost in overtime at Army 31-30 and the Bulls lost at home to the Black Knights 42-13.
I just think these are two very evenly matched teams, much more so than this spread would suggest. RedHawks are 5-0 ATS last 5 conference games and 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road. Take Miami!
|10-27-18||Tennessee +8 v. South Carolina||24-27||Win||105||44 h 54 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Tennessee +
I really like this spot with the Volunteers getting more than a touchdown against South Carolina. Last time out Tennessee got annihilated by Alabama 58-21, failing to cover as a massive 29-point dog. The thing is, prior to that we saw this team upset Auburn 30-24 on the road in easily the biggest win for first year head coach Jeremy Pruitt.
I just think that this team really gained a lot of confidence from that win over Auburn and will be eager to get back on the field after getting annihilated by the Crimson Tide. Keep in mind that Tennessee has played a brutal schedule. Five of their first seven opponents have been West Virginia, Florida, Georgia, Auburn and Alabama.
South Carolina is a quality team, but I think they are more in the class of like Auburn than they are the elite SEC teams, such as LSU, Alabama, Florida and Georgia. The Vols aren't just capable of keeping it close enough to cover, I could easily see them winning this game outright.
They have covered 30 of their last 45 road games in the month of October and are an impressive 32-16 in their last 48 off a SU loss and 16-5 in their last 21 road games off a conference loss by 10 or more. Take Tennessee!
|10-27-18||UNLV v. San Jose State -2.5||37-50||Win||100||56 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on San Jose State -
The simple fact that San Jose State is favored to win this game is really all you need to know to why this is the right side. The Spartans haven't won a game (0-7), yet are laying points to a UNLV team that has a couple of wins under their resume.
I just think this is the ideal spot to jump on San Jose State. This team is going to put everything they have into winning this game, as it's arguably their last realistic shot at win this season. They only have 4 more to play and 3 of those are on the road and the lone home game is against Fresno State.
UNLV is definitely a team they can not just beat, but win going away against. The Rebels only two wins are against UTEP, who might be the worst FBS program in the country and FCS foe Prairie View. San Jose State has also been close in several games, as 3 of their games have been decided by a touchdown or less and they just lost by a mere 3-points at San Diego State as a 25-point dog.
Rebels are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games vs a team with a losing home record and a mere 4-15 in their last 19 on the road when the team they are playing has won fewer than 25% of their games, losing outright by more than 10 points/game. Take San Jose State!
|10-27-18||Kentucky +7.5 v. Missouri||15-14||Win||100||55 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky +
This is just too good a price to pass up on the Wildcats. Kentucky has failed to cover their last two games and were a big disappointment to a lot of people in last week's mere 14-7 win over Vanderbilt at home. I think it has them way undervalued here against a Missouri team that I feel lis getting way too much respect.
The Tigers come in off an impressive 65-33 win over Memphis, but it just feels like more of the same, where Missouri rolls the teams it's suppose to beat and struggles against the better opponents they play. We saw this team manage just 10 points the previous week against Alabama and this Kentucky defense is no joke.
The Wildcats are 12th in the country, giving up just 302 ypg. They are 17th against the run, giving up just 112 ypg and are giving up just 3.4 yards/carry against teams that average 4.9. Everyone thinks of Missouri as this pass-happy team, but they are averaging 42 rush attempts and 200 yards/game on the ground. When they struggle to run the football, the offense struggles to score.
Not only do I think Kentucky can slow down the Tigers offense, but this Missouri defense is one that a limited Wildcats offense can have success against. Tigers rank 92nd in the country, giving up 419 ypg. The passing game is the biggest weakness for Kentucky, but they should have success thru the air agains this Missouri secondary, which ranks 122nd, allowing 287.4 ypg.
Wildcats not only have the ability to keep this within the number, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Take Kentucky!
|10-27-18||Arizona State v. USC -3.5||38-35||Loss||-105||38 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on USC -
I think we are getting a great price here on USC as a small home favorite against the Sun Devils. The Trojans have a disappointing 4-3 record based on their standards, but it's really not a surprise given how young they are on the offensive side of the ball and the schedule they have had to play.
USC's 3 losses have all come on the road against teams who are currently ranked inside the Top 25 in Texas (6), Stanford (24) and Utah (23). They are a perfect 3-0 at home, which includes impressive wins over Colorado and Washington State.
This Arizona State team is better than I think people expected in year one under Herm Edwards, but they have lost 4 of their last 5 and the offense continues to struggle to produce at a high enough level to win games against good teams. They only managed 13-points at home last time out in a loss to Stanford and have scored 21 or fewer in 5 of their last 6.
The big concern here with USC is that starting quarterback J.T. Daniels is now doubtful to play because of a concussion. I think that's definitely helping the number here, but I don't think the injury really makes a huge impact on the outcome of this game.
Jack Sears will start if Daniels can't go and while he's not attempted a pass at the college level, he was highly touted out of high school and has been with the program for two years. I think the offense will be able to score more than enough to win this by at least a touchdown. Take USC!
|10-27-18||Iowa v. Penn State -5.5||24-30||Win||100||25 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -
The Nittany Lions should have no problem here winning by at least a touchdown at home against Iowa. Penn State's hopes of making the 4-team playoff and winning the Big Ten East are likely shot, but I don't see this team throwing in the towel the rest of the way.
I think their big flat spot was last week at Indiana. They definitely didn't play their best, but still managed to sneak out a 33-28 road win. I think we see a much more focused Nittany Lions team when they host nationally ranked Iowa. Keep in mind they are still looking for their first win at home in Big Ten play, which is definitely a big motivator here.
Iowa has looked impressive in their 6-1 start, but the schedule has definitely been favorable for the Hawkeyes. They have only played 2 road games and those were against Minnesota and Indiana. They lost their big step up game at home against Wisconsin and I just don't think the offense will be able to keep pace with Trace McSorely and the Nittany Lions attack.
Note that two years ago, Iowa was a mere 6-point dog at Penn State and got annihilated 41-14. I don't think it will be that big of a blowout, but all we need is for them to win by 6. Nittany Lions are 16-1 ATS in their last 17 off a conference win and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a conference win. Take Penn State!
|10-27-18||Clemson v. Florida State +17||59-10||Loss||-110||68 h 12 m||Show|
4* Clemson/Florida St ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State +
Clemson comes in off that impressive 41-7 win at home over previously undefeated NC State, easily covering as a 18.5-point favorite. I think that result has the Tigers way overvalued here against their rivals from the Atlantic, especially on the road.
Florida State has been one of the most disappointing teams of 2018, but there's no question that the Seminoles have some of the best talent in the country. We saw them nearly upset Miami on the road a couple weeks back and I think they are going to give Clemson all they can handle, in what to them has to feel like their Super Bowl.
The Tigers have won the last 3, but the largest margin of victory was 17 in last year's matchup. However, that was a much closer game than the final score indicates, as Clemson only led 17-14 in the 4th quarter.
Note that the Tigers are just 14-29 ATS when they go into a game off 3 or more consecutive conference wins, as the books only inflate the numbers more off a victory.
We also find a strong system in play, as road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who are outgaining opponents by 125+ yards/game are just 17-48 (26%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off back-to-back games where they had 525 or more total yards. Take Florida State!
|10-26-18||Wyoming v. Colorado State -2||Top||34-21||Loss||-105||86 h 5 m||Show|
5* Wyoming/Colorado St MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado State -
Colorado State is going to have no problem at all covering this small spread at home against Wyoming on Friday night. The Cowboys are just 1-6 since that 29-7 win at New Mexico State to open the season back in August.
They have lost 4 straight and are off a close home loss to Utah State as a 13-point dog. Covering against the Aggies looks great, but this team has no business being basically a pick'em on the road with that offense.
Wyoming is 129th in the country, averaging a mere 15.5 ppg. They are 88th in rushing (150.1 ypg) and 122nd in passing (138.3 ypg). They only scored 13 points against Hawaii and a mere 17 against Wofford. They haven't scored more than 20 in 7 straight games.
The defense is good for Wyoming, but I look for them to struggle here on the road against a capable Colorado State offense, especially playing on short rest off that physical game against Utah State. Cowboys are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team that doesn't have a winning home record. Take Colorado State!
|10-26-18||Indiana v. Minnesota +3||31-38||Win||100||34 h 52 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +
Love the value here with the Golden Gophers as a home dog against Indiana. I'lll gladly take the points here, but I fully expect Minnesota to win this game outright.
We are seeing the Hoosiers get way too much respect from their near upset of Penn State this past Saturday. That was the ultimate get up spot for Indiana at home against a ranked opponent, while I think the Nittany Lions were still reeling a bit from back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, which all but knocked them out of the playoff picture. Indiana head coach Tom Allen said it best, "Just a gut-wrenching loss four our team today. I thought our kids played their hearts out."
This is a massive letdown spot for the Hoosiers and they will be going up against a hungry Gophers team that just lost their 4th straight. The thing is, 3 of those came on the road and the other was a home game against a good Iowa team. I like head coach P.J. Fleck and I'm confident he will have Minnesota ready to play at home in prime time.
Hoosiers not a great team to back in this spot, as they have failed to cover 7 of their last 8 road games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a game where they covered the spread. I wouldn't be shocked at all of the Gophers won this game going away. Take Minnesota!
|10-20-18||Oregon v. Washington State -1.5||Top||20-34||Win||100||105 h 14 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington State -
Game Day is headed to Pullman for the first time and it's going to be nuts at Martin Stadium Saturday night when the No. 25 Cougars host No. 12 Oregon. I think that atmosphere combined with how great a spot this is for Washington State and how tough a spot this is for the Ducks, really gives the Cougars the upper hand.
Washington State has had two full weeks to prepare for this game off a bye, while Oregon has to be running on fumes after their overtime win against No. 7 Washington. I know the Cougars haven't played some of the top teams in the country, but they have an impressive win at home over a really good Utah team and more than held their own on the road against USC in a prime time game.
Offensively, both teams can put up point sin a hurry, as both come in averaging over 40 ppg and 480 ypg. Both teams are also strong defensively, though I would definitely give the edge to the Cougars playing at home and having had those two full weeks of practice to prepare for this Ducks' offensive attack.
Cougars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games when they come in having won 2 or more games in a row and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Take Washington State!
|10-20-18||Vanderbilt v. Kentucky -11.5||7-14||Loss||-110||33 h 60 m||Show|
3* NCAAF SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky -
I think we are getting a great price here on the Wildcats laying less than two touchdowns at home against the Commodores. Vandy was able to put up a decent fight last week at home against Florida, but I think that was more of a result of the Gators not being 100% invested from the start.
Definitely a tough spot for Florida off that huge home win over LSU and knowing they had their bye week on deck before the massive showdown with Georgia. The Gators let the Commodores get out to a 21-3 lead and from that point on they were a different team and outscored Vanderbilt 34-6 and wound up outgaining them 576 to 336.
I don't see Kentucky sleep-walking into this one. The Wildcats are coming off a bye and my bet is this team can't wait to get back on the field after suffering their first loss of the season at Texas A&M in overtime. I just think that Kentucky's defense will be able to completely shutdown the Commodores offense and Benny Snell and that Wildcats offense will be able to have their way, as Vanderbilt comes in ranked 94th in the country against the run, giving up 183.3 ypg. This one has blowout written all over it. Take Kentucky!
|10-20-18||Memphis +10 v. Missouri||33-65||Loss||-110||40 h 7 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Memphis +
I think we would be seeing a lot different line here had Memphis not squandered that game against UCF last week. Memphis led 20-7 early and 30-17 at the half, somehow managed to go scoreless over the final 2 periods in a 31-30 loss.
That does bring into some concern of a letdown after a crushing loss like that, but I think getting a chance to take on a SEC team will have Memphis 100% ready to go. On the flip side of this, I think Missouri could have a hard time getting up for this game off their game against No. 1 Alabama. Especially with the likes of Kentucky and Florida next up on the schedule.
I also think that even if Missouri came to play, they would have a tough time putting away this Memphis team by double-digits. Memphis has a potent offense that comes in averaging 43.9 ppg and 539 ypg. Missouri is giving up 30.5 ppg and 6.2 yards/play.
It's also worth noting that Memphis is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 off a conference loss by 3 points or less, while Missouri falls into a horrible situation. Home favorites, who are averaging 31+ ppg are just 60-111 (35%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off a loss by 17 or more. Take Memphis!
|10-20-18||NC State v. Clemson -17||7-41||Win||100||40 h 40 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big Favorite PLAY OF THE WEEK Clemson -
A lot of people are going to look at this line and want to grab the points with NC State. Hard to blame them, as the Wolfpack come in 5-0 and ranked No. 16 in the country. If history repeats itself like it has in the past, you are going to want to load up on the Tigers. The last 8 times a team has entered a game at 5-0 and been more than 14-point road dog, the home favorite has covered every single time.
I know the Wolfpack have a decent quarterback in Ryan Finley, but I just don't think this NC State team is as good as people think. They lost a lot from last year's team and have had a pretty easy schedule to this point with their toughest games being home matchups against Virginia and Boston College.
Last time out Clemson annihilated Wake Forest 63-3. I just think this Tigers team is better than what they have shown to this point and that blowout win over the Demon Deacons is the start of something special. Trevor Lawrence is getting more and more comfortable in the offense and this Clemson defense is loaded with NFL talent. They haven't played their best and yet are 8th in the country in total offense (531 ypg) and 3rd in total defense (261.1 ypg).
I love elite teams, especially at home, in big time matchups and I think they are going to make quite the statement in a blowout win on Saturday. Bet Clemson!
|10-20-18||Wake Forest +10.5 v. Florida State||17-38||Loss||-110||29 h 1 m||Show|
4* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +
Love the value here with the Demon Deacons as a double-digit underdog against the Seminoles. I think we are seeing a massive overreaction here with Wake Forest losing 63-3 last time out at home to Clemson and Florida State barely missing out on an upset win at Miami as a 14.5-point dog.
Both teams have had extra time to prepare off a bye, but there's only one team I trust to show up and that's Wake Forest. It doesn't matter how bad a year FSU is having, the bottom teams in this league are going to get up to play them. You can almost always count on a team coming out with a big time effort after getting embarrassed the way the Demon Deacons did in that loss to the Tigers.
Speaking of Clemson, they are a big reason why I don't trust the Seminoles in this spot. Florida State hosts the Tigers next week and there's not a game outside of maybe Florida in their finale that they want to win more than that game. Not to mention their practice routine has been out of whack with hurricane that hit home. I not only think they don't cover, but I could easily see the Demon Deacons winning this game outright. Take Wake Forest!
|10-13-18||Ole Miss -6 v. Arkansas||37-33||Loss||-104||101 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ole Miss -
I got no problem laying less than a touchdown with Ole Miss on the road against Arkansas. The Razorbacks have gotten off to an awful start in the first year under Chad Morris. They won their opener against Eastern Illinois and have lost 5 straight since.
That includes a loss 7-point loss at Colorado St as a 14-point favorite, a 27-point loss at home to North Texas as a 5-point favorite and 34-3 defeat to an Auburn team that has struggled. They have covered their last 2 against Texas A&M and Alabama, but were fortunate to do so. They were a 19-point dog to the Aggies and trailed 17-0 before Texas A&M took their foot off the gas. Last week they were a 34.5-point dog to Alabama and lost by 34 thanks to a late touchdown with just 13 seconds on the clock.
It's been bad on both sides of the ball, as the Razorbacks own the 103rd ranked offense (358.1 ypg) and are 91st in rushing and 92nd in passing. They have the 110th ranked pass defense, giving up 271.3 ypg.
Ole Miss is simply too talented. The Rebels only two losses are against two of the best teams in the conference in LSU and Alabama. They have taken care of everyone else, including a 20-point win over what looks to be a good Texas Tech team.
I mentioned how bad Arkansas was against the pass. Ole Miss has the 5th best passing attack in the country at 347.5 ypg. Look for the Rebels to score at will and while their defense is bad, it can make enough stops to pull away. Take Ole Miss!
|10-13-18||Missouri +28.5 v. Alabama||10-39||Loss||-115||32 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Missouri +
After starting out the year a perfect 3-0 ATS, Alabama has failed to cover 3 straight. The thing is they have been so close to covering the last 3, the public isn't backing down and we continue to get unbelievable value fading the Crimson Tide.
There's no question that Alabama will win this game at home, but I think it's asking a lot for them to win by more than 4 touchdowns against this Missouri team. The Tigers have the 9th ranked offense in the country, averaging 530 ypg. The have the 15th ranked passing attack (318.4 ypg) behind future NFL signal caller Drew Lock.
You have to be able to threaten Alabama vertically to have any success against them, as they are just too strong up front to ground and pound. The high-powered passing attack is also what you want for the backdoor cover. Note the Crimson Tide have made a habit of letting teams score late.
The other big key here is we have already seen Missouri hang with Georgia, only losing by 14 points. They also were outgained by just 52 yards and had a 26 to 18 edge in first downs over the Bulldogs.
Tigers are also 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games against a team with a winning home record and have covered 10 of their last 14 overall. Crimson Tide are a mere 1-6 ATS in their last conference games. Take Missouri!
|10-13-18||Michigan State +14 v. Penn State||Top||21-17||Win||100||28 h 19 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +
Penn State is getting way too much respect here at home against a good Michigan State team. The Spartans are 3-2 with a couple of close losses. They have to feel like they should be 5-0 and with them off that ugly loss at home to Northwestern, they are going to be 100% locked in for this one.
I don't know that the same can be said for the Nittany Lions. Even off a bye week, I think we could see Penn State a bit flat off that devastating loss to Ohio State. That was a game they felt they had to win if they wanted to win the Big Ten East and make the playoffs. If they are still down from that lost, they won't just not cover, but they might lose the game outright.
It's a very similar spot to last year. Penn State was 7-0 and ranked No. 2 in the country before losing to the Buckeyes. The very next week they lost 27-24 at Michigan State. Spartans have won 3 of 4 over the Nittany Lions since James Franklin arrived at State College.
I also like the matchup here. Penn State has a great quarterback in Trace McSorley, but that offense is built on the ground game. Only once all season have the Nittany Lions thrown for more than 300 yards and that was against Kent State.
They will likely have no choice but to throw it in this one, as the Spartans lead the nation in run defense, giving up just 33.8 ypg. Not a single team has rushed for more than 63 yards against them. Last week they held Northwestern to 8-yards on 20 attempts. That run defense was also a big part of their win last year over Penn State, as they held Saquon Barkley and the Nittany Lions to just 48 yards on 27 attempts.
Hard to pass up on a double-digit dog that has a realistic shot of winning the game outright. Plus, Nittany Lions are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 off a loss and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games off a home loss. Take Michigan State!
|10-13-18||Texas A&M v. South Carolina +2.5||26-23||Loss||-100||28 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on South Carolina +
Coming off a win at home over No. 13 Kentucky, I think we are seeing the Aggies get a little too much love on the road against a good South Carolina team. The Gamecocks rallied to beat Missouri 37-35 at home last week, but are still searching for that signature win.
It's actually a very similar spot to what we saw last week with Texas A&M. Except we get even more motivation here from South Carolina as a home dog.
This is also a good Gamecocks team. There only two losses were at home to Georgia and on the road to Kentucky. Texas A&M has played just one road game all season and that was at Alabama. While they covered the spread, it was no contest, as the Crimson Tide had a 31-13 lead at the half and 45-16 advantage going into the 4th quarter.
I also like the matchup. Aggies defense is outstanding against the run, but are a mere 97th in the country vs the pass (244.8 ypg). Gamecocks have the 48th ranked passing offense (255.8 ypg). As for the defense, Muschamp knows Fisher's schemes well from when both were coordinators under Saban at LSU. They also get the benefit of feeding off the home crowd. I'll take the points but I expect the home team to win outright. Take South Carolina!