Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-13-20 | Washington Football Team v. 49ers UNDER 44 | 23-15 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SF/Washington UNDER the total. Both these defenses are very capable. Washington ranks 4th in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game. On the Rams, Saints and Steelers are better. SF is right behind the Football Team, ranking 6th in that category. Both these teams also want to run the ball with regularity. That, of course, helps to keep the clock moving. Washington has seen six of its past eight games finish with less than 44 points. The only two that didn't were games against Dallas and Detroit. Those two teams rank #31 and #32 (last and second last) in the league in terms of points allowed, per game. Facing a stingier SF defense, determined to bounce back, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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12-13-20 | Saints v. Eagles +7 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 148 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Saints have been on quite the run. I believe that it comes to an end Sunday though. The Eagles are a dangerous and desperate team. Amazingly, they're still alive. But this is absolutely must win time. The Rams were the only team to beat the Eagles by more than six points, at Philadelphia, all season. And that was way back in September. This, despite the Eagles hosting the likes of Seattle and Baltimore. The Saints are playing their third straight on the road, something you don't see too often. They've also got a showdown with the defending Super Bowl champs on deck. So, if there's ever a time to look ahead to a game, this is it. The Eagles have been great in the final four weeks of the regular season two years in a row, winning seven of those eight games. Expect them to give their potentially road-weary guests all that they can handle with a great shot at the outright upset. |
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12-13-20 | Chiefs -7 v. Dolphins | 33-27 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on KC. The fact that the champs haven't covered for awhile combined with the fact that the Dolphins have been covering, has kept the line lower than it easily could have been. I expect a double-digit win. Miami has been winning with a defense that blitzes, a lot. Mahomes is a different type of QB though and he tends to shred defenses that blitz him. The Dolphins offense took a hit when leading rusher Myles Gaskin was sidelined with Covid-19. That hurts more with Breida and Ahmed already out. The Chiefs, 5-1 ATS their last six against AFC East teams, beat New England by 16 and beat the Jets by 25. They also defeated the Bills by nine points, at Buffalo. Expect them to complete the sweep of the division this afternoon, picking up the cover along the way. |
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12-13-20 | Cowboys v. Bengals OVER 42.5 | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Dallas/Cincinnati OVER the total. I've won with the "over" in each of the Cowboys' last two games. Once again, I feel that the O/U number will prove to be too low. Note that its below the important 44 mark. The Bengals' last four opponents (Miami, Pitt, NYG, Wash) all rank in the top 10 of the league, in terms of points allowed. Now, however, the Bengals face a team which ranks dead last in that category. Here's an excerpt from what I said last week: "... I won with the 'over' in the Cowboys' Thanksgiving Day game. That was against a Washington offense which hadn't scored more than 27 points in a single game all season. Yet, The Football Team exploded for 41 points. The Dallas defense tends to do that to teams. Since allowing 20 points in the first game of the season, the Cowboys have conceded 23 or more to all 10 opponents. They've given up 38 or more points on five different occasions. Not surprisingly, they rank dead last in terms of points allowed (32.6) per game. In other words, Lamar and the Ravens are going to put up a big number. While the Baltimore defense is certainly better, I believe that the Cowboys, still averaging 22 ppg their last three, have the weapons on offense to contribute their own decent chunk of points ..." Sure enough, Dallas gave up 34 more points, while scoring 17 of its own. Expect the Bengal offense to "get healthy," both teams combining for enough points to send the final combined score above the low number. |
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12-12-20 | San Diego State +17.5 v. BYU | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SDSU. This is a very tough spot for BYU, in my opinion. As you're probably aware, the Cougars elected to add a game to their schedule last week. They flew thousands of miles to go and squander their unbeaten record on a heart-breaking loss. While this is an excellent BYU team, that will be very tough to bounce back from. Keep in mind that the Cougars are being asked to lay a very big number here and that the Aztecs are a stingy team which allows a mere 16.3 ppg. None of the Aztecs' three losses came by more than 11 points. The Aztecs beat BYU last season and they lost by just three the last time that they played here. I believe they're catching the Cougars at the right time and I expect AT LEAST another cover Saturday night. |
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12-12-20 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -2 | Top | 15-33 | Win | 100 | 145 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on V-TECH. Virginia is rolling. Virginia Tech is reeling. No brainer on the visitors, right? Not in my opinion. A closer look at the Hokies' 4-game skid shows that the first was an unlikely 3-point loss against Liberty. That was followed by a 1-point loss against Miami. Each of those games absolutely could have gone either way. Getting stuck on the wrong side of both was tough to take though and the Hokies delivered a dud at Pittsburgh. Not a great effort but understandable, all the same. That was followed by a loss against Clemson. So, there's no shame in that. In other words, I'm not ready to write the Hokies off due their current slide. Coach Fuente summed it up by saying: " ... we've lost two heartbreakers then didn't play very well on the road and came home against the No. 3 team in the country and right in the middle of the game had some of the weirdest events I've ever seen occur. There's a little bit of context .... The bottom line is that I love what we are teaching, what they are retaining and where we are going." Beating their bitter instate rival won't get them a winning record but it will sure go a long way in getting rid of the bad taste in their mouths. With a bowl game lookling unlikely, this game is even more important. The Cavs haven't played a road game since way back on 10/24, when they lost by five, at Miami. In fact, a closer look shows that Virginia is 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by a combined score of 100-60. Speaking of road woes, the Cavs haven't won here since 1998. I expect a highly motivated V-Tech team to deliver its very best effort, continuing its homefield dominance in this series while covering the small number along the way. |
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12-12-20 | Wake Forest v. Louisville -130 | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 123 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Last time on this field, the Cardinals won 30-0. Wake Forest hasn't been on any field in nearly a month. The Deacons last played way back on 11/14, a tough loss against UNC. That was their only game since Halloween, too. Thats far from ideal and I believe it'll work against the Deacons. Louisville will be honoring its 18 seniors, prior to the game. Needless to say, they're going to be highly motivated to win this one. Last year's game was close, the Cards winning a wild 62-59 affair. The Cards are 10-2 SU the past 12 times that they were listed as favorites. Expect them to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. |
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12-11-20 | Nevada v. San Jose State OVER 58.5 | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on Nevada/SJ State OVER the total. Last year's game between these teams produced a whopping 79 points, a 41-38 Nevada win. I'm expecting another shootout for tonight's game, which will be played in Las Vegas. Note that the last three meetings between these teams, played in the state of Nevada, have all finished with greater than 70 combined points. Nevada is led by the top QB in the conference. Carson Strong has thrown for more than 2300 yards and 21 TDs. No other QB in the conference is close, in terms of TDs. That said, Spartan QB Nick Starkel has also quietly been getting it done. He doesn't make mistakes and has the best passer rating in the conference. Nevada, which put up 37 points last game, is going to throw the ball a lot, the best passing attack that the Spartans have faced. That will lead to big plays when the passes connect and time stoppages when they don't. The Spartans put up 35 points last time out though, the third time in the last four games that they're scored at least 34. Don't be surprised when both teams top 30, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams -4.5 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm playing LA on the money-line. The Patriots have been on quite a roll and have brought themselves back from the dead. I say the Rams cool them off tonight though. Obviously, the Rams haven't forgotten that the Patriots beat them in the Super Bowl. Coach McVay had this to say: ''It was a very humbling night for myself. I didn't think that I did nearly a good enough job for our football team to give us a chance to be crowned world champs.'' This is just the second time that the Pats have played b2b road games this season. They failed to cover in the first instance, nearly getting beaten by the winless Jets. Obviously, the Rams present a much tougher challenge. The Pats have a very good defense but the Rams' defense is arguably even better. LA allows 20.3 ppg. NE allows 21.3. On the other side of the ball, LA has a bigger advantage. The Rams average 25.1 ppg compared to the Pats' 22.8. Why the moneyline instead of the pointspread? While I do like the Rams to also cover, I like them more to win. Consider that the Pats are 47-25-1 ATS over the years, as underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. Yet, they're just 27-46 SU in the same games. Huge difference. Likewise, the Rams are 49-51-2 ATS over that span, when listed as favorites in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. Yet, they're 70-32 SU in the same games. Rams win. |
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12-10-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Southern Miss OVER 42 | 31-45 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FAU/Southern Miss OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Note that last year's O/U line was 56.5. Southern Miss allows more than 32 ppg and has given up more than 50 on a couple of occasions. The Owls put up 38 in a win against rival FIU, so they've got an offense capable of exploiting the vulnrable Golden Eagle defense. While there were a couple of duds mixed in there, Southern Miss has still scored 20 or more points in seven of its nine games. Last year's game saw 51 points scored. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens OVER 45 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Baltimore OVER the total. I won with the 'over' in the Cowboys' Thanksgiving Day game. That was against a Washington offense which hadn't scored more than 27 points in a single game all season. Yet, The Football Team exploded for 41 points. The Dallas defense tends to do that to teams. Since allowing 20 points in the first game of the season, the Cowboys have conceded 23 or more to all 10 opponents. They've given up 38 or more points on five different occasions. Not surprisingly, they rank dead last in terms of points allowed (32.6) per game. In other words, Lamar and the Ravens are going to put up a big number. While the Baltimore defense is certainly better, I believe that the Cowboys, still averaging 22 ppg their last three, have the weapons on offense to contribute their own decent chunk of points. The Ravens have allowed at least 19 points in five of their last six, including three straight. Three of those opponents scored 28 or more. All things considered, this number is low. |
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12-07-20 | Washington Football Team v. Steelers UNDER 44 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Pittsburgh UNDER the total. I won with the 'over' in Washington's last game. However, that was against Dallas. The Steelers are a far stingier opponent. Yet, the O/U line is basically the same as it was for that game. Even after the big day on Thanksgiving, Washington still ranks only 24th in terms of points scored per game. Meanwhile, the Stelers have allowed 14, 10 and 3 points their last three games. Prior to limiting the Cowboys to 16 points, Washington kept Cincy to just nine. The Steelers allow the fewest points in all of football while Washington ranks seventh in that category. They rank #3 and #4, respectively, in terms of yards allowed per game. Expect a defensive, low-scoring affair. |
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12-06-20 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 51 | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Denver/KC UNDER the total. The earlier meeting finished above the total with 59 points. That O/U line was just 45. Since that time, the Broncos have scored progressively less in nearly every game. In the game immediately following KC, they scored 31. After that, they scored 27. However, since that point, they managed only 12, 20 and 3 points. Yet, despite Denver's recent offensive struggles, we're working with a considerably higher O/U line than we were for the earlier meeting. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Not surprisingly, each of Denver's last three gmaes have finished below the number. They'll be doing everything that they can here to establish the run and keep Mahomes on the sidelines. In the two games that the Chiefs were favored by more than 10.5 points this season, the final scores were 35-9 and 26-10, both final scores staying below the total. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-06-20 | Patriots v. Chargers -1.5 | 45-0 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the LA CHARGERS. The Chargers won't be going to the playoffs. However, a visit from the Patriots should still provide them with plenty of motivation, especially as they can deal Belichick's team's playoff chances a blow by beating them. Note that New England is just 2-6 SU/ATS the past eight times that it played a game where the line ranged from the -3 to +3. The Chargers have only played three games here since the start of October. They won two of those and nearly won the other. In those three games, they scored a total of 99 points, an average of 33. That might make it tough for the Pats to keep up. They've scored less than 24 points in seven of their past eight. I expect the Chargers to rise to the occasion with a big win in this one. |
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12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals +3 | 38-28 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. While I respect the Rams, I believe homefield will give Arizona the advantage. Note that the Rams are 3-5 ATS the past eight times that they were road favorites of three or less, 0-2 ATS this season. Laying three points at Miami, they lost 28-17. Laying two points at SF, they lost 24-16. The Cards are happy to be back home, after dropping two in a row on the road. Last time here, they beat Buffalo. They've also beaten Seattle here. So, the Cards are confident that they're capable of being any team on this field. Note that their two losses here both came by a field goal. Arizona is 10-5 ATS its past 15 after b2b SU losses. Expect the Cards to improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover on Sunday afternoon. |
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12-06-20 | Raiders v. Jets OVER 46 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NY/LV OVER the total. I believe that the NY offense will get going Sunday afternoon. The Raiders gave up 43 points at Atlanta last week after giving up 35 the previous game. While the Jets did struggle to score last game, they had scored 28 and 35 in their previous two and the offense is finally now healthier than it was earlier in the season. I'm not worried about Jacobs being out for the Raiders. Booker is a capable backup and if Jacobs' absence encourages Carr to throw a little more, all the better. The Raiders have seeen 10 of their 11 games, including four straight, produce a minimum of 49 points. I say this one does too. |
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12-06-20 | Lions v. Bears -167 | 34-30 | Loss | -167 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing CHICAGO on the ML. Both teams have problems. However, the Bears have fewer issues, in my opinion, than the Lions. They also have a vastly superior defense. Detroit allows 29.8 ppg. Chicago allows 22.7 ppg. Firing their coach and GM may have been necessary for the Lions but it won't provide any immediate spark. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Lions are just 7-24 SU when listed as underdogs. During that span, the Bears were 17-7 SU when listed as favorites. This is actually just the second time that the Bears were favored all season. The first time, way back in September, saw them win by four, while laying 4.5. I expect AT LEAST another SU victory this afternoon. |
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12-06-20 | Raiders v. Jets +8 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 117 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW YORK. I know some of you are probably thinking, "The Jets?" Yes, I know, we're talking about the Jets. I know that picking a winless team for my "GOY" won't make me popular. I'm not worried about that though. Only about cashing a ticket and I love how this one sets up for the home team. The Jets defense is playing hard. The offense, admittedly, has struggled. However, the pieces are back and I believe that this will be a defense that they will have success against. Keep in mind that the Raiders are off a 43-6 loss.. They've allowed 78 points the past two games. Gruden knows the Jets will be tough. He had this to say Monday, after the Sunday beating by the Falcons: "...We're still really young. We are missing some key players. I'm not going to worry about anything down the road except the Jets. And if you watched the Jets play yesterday, they're a handful. They're going to be hard to move the ball on. Gregg Williams and this defense give people problems, we've got to take better care of the ball, we've got to play better collectively on defense and we've got to make some timely plays in the kicking game. This will be a fistfight no doubt about it. I've got a lot of respect for the way the Jets are competing ..." The Jets defense was especially stingy in the second half last week, forcing two turnovers and three punts. Darnold, now with all his receivers, has a game under his belt. He's highly motivated for a better performance and I believe that the team is highly motivated for that first victory. I think they're catching the Raiders at the right time and I expect them to take this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at getting that elusive first win. |
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12-05-20 | San Jose State v. Hawaii OVER 58.5 | Top | 35-24 | Win | 100 | 74 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Hawaii/SJ State OVER the total. This game was originally supposed to be played at San Jose. However, with the covid restrictions in Santa Clara county, it was moved to Hawaii. It'll be the earliest start time for a game in Hawaii in nearly 20 years. The change of venue suits me just fine. In fact, I like it. The Spartans were going to score, regardless of where the game was played. They've scored 34, 28 and 38 points the past three games. The 28 came against a stingy SD State defense. The Spartans will put up a big number against a Hawaii defense which has allowed more than 30 points in four of its past five games. Now, with the game being played at Hawaii, the Warriors will also score. In three games here, they've averaged 32 ppg. These teams have played three straight 'overs' against each other and the past two years, the games have finished with 82 and 85 points. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -12.5 | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Hoosiers have had a nice season but I expect the Badgers to bring them back down to earth on Saturday afternoon. While Indiana averages a healthy 32.8 ppg, Wisconsin averages even more at 33.7 ppg. However, its on the other side of the ball where the Badgers really have the advantage. The Hoosiers allow 21.7 ppg. Wisconsin allows a mere 11.7 ppg. Of course, it doesn't help matters that Indiana is without star QB Michael Penix Jr, the biggest of several injuries. The Badgers are a profitable 36-21 ATS over the years, when playing with two week's worth of rest in between games. Their last five games (all wins) against Indiana have had scores of 45-17, 51-3, 62-14, 59-7 and 83-20. Lay the points and expect another blowout. |
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12-05-20 | Arkansas v. Missouri -2.5 | 48-50 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MISSOURI. While the Razorbacks are off b2b losses, the Tigers are off b2b wins. Last time out, they won 41-0. That type of dominating effort will provide plenty of momentum and confidence coming into this afternoon's game. The Razorbacks are just 1-12 on the road the past 2+ seasons, going 5-8 at the betting window. During that span, the Tigers are 12-5 SU and 11-5-1 ATS at home. The only team to beat them here this season was Alabama. Note that Arkansas is just 1-13 SU its past 14 The Tigers have only been favored twice this season and they won and covered both times. Lay the small number. |
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12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State -2.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on APP STATE. This is a big game between two good teams. While the Cajuns have the higher ranking, I believe that the Mountaineers are favored for good reason. After losing to Coastal Carolina, the Mountaineers didn't hang their heads. They went out and hammered Troy. Now, they get a chance to redeem themselves by beating a ranked team. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. The Mountaineers have dominated this series in recent seasons. I believe that the Mountaineers have the better defense and that will ultimately lead to them contininuing their series dominance. Coastal Carolina was the only team to score more than 21 points against them. Each of the past five, besides Coastal Carolina, has scored 17 or less. While the Cajuns may get more than that, they won't get enough. Lay the small number. |
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12-03-20 | Air Force v. Utah State +12.5 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. I won with the Aggies in their last game, a 41-27 win over New Mexico. That was a huge win for them, as it was their first of the season. Now, with that monkey off their back, I expect the Aggies to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. With last week's win, Utah State is now 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS its past 15 home games. During that span, Air Force is just 5-8 SU on the road. In this season's lone road game, the Falcons managed only six points, a 17-6 loss at SJ State. While the Falcons did beat up on New Mexico last time out, that was awhile ago now; they haven't been playing much, due to covid cancellations. I expect that to work against them here, as the suddenly confident Aggies are coming "ready to play." Grab the points. |
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12-02-20 | Ravens +10.5 v. Steelers | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BALTIMORE. While the Steelers have been "unbeatable" this season, I believe that the Ravens are the team capable of beating them. In fact, I believe that they will. Not only are the Ravens 8-2 ATS their last 10 as underdogs, but they've won seven of those games outright. This year's team has won four of five on the road, the lone loss coming when they were playing the second of b2b road games, which is not the situation here. Going back further finds Baltimore at 7-1 SU/ATS its last eight road games with an O/U line in the 45 to 49 range. While the Steelers eked out a 4-point win in this season's earlier meeting, the Ravens had won the previous two in the series, including a 3-point win here last season. Note that each of Pittsburgh's last three wins against Baltimore have been by seven or less. In fact, Baltimore has won its past two visits here and the last time that Pittsburgh beat the Ravens here, it was by a single point. In a game that could well be decided on the final play, I'm grabbing the points with the desperate, revenge-minded Ravens. |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 50.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 177 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on Seattle/Philadelphia OVER the total. The Seahawks can score points with the best of them. They average 31.8 ppg. Entering Sunday's action, that's second only to KC's 32.1 ppg. Their 400 yards per game ranks fourth and their 6.6 yards per play, ranks second. In other words, the Eagles are going to have to score of they want to keep up. Given that Seattle ranks just 28th, in terms of points allowed and dead last in terms of total yards allowed, I believe that the Eagles will do exactly that. Wentz reportedly had a good week of practice and the Eagles are planning on working Hurts more into the offense. I say it all adds up to a high-scoring affair. |
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11-29-20 | Saints v. Broncos +6.5 | Top | 31-3 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. The Broncos are obviously in a tough spot with their QB situation. That said, they're off a momentum-building win, their defense and running game getting it done. The Denver secondary is very good and they were getting plenty of pressure on the QB last week. They also held the Dolphins to just 56 yards on the ground. They won't have to contend with Brees and I believe that they could easily catch the Saints looking past them. New Orleans is just 2-4 ATS the past six times it was favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. Grab the points and expect the Broncos to come ready to play. |
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11-29-20 | Browns v. Jaguars +7 | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 100 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. It was always expected to be a tough year in Jacksonville and that has proved to be the case. The Jags haven't won since Week 1. They've continued to fight hard abd remain competitive though, last week's loss notwithstanding. I like that Glennon is getting the start. I also feel that the fact that both teams are missing numerous players will work to Jacksonville's advantage. This game will have an exhibition feel to it -with numerous backups on both sides and with the Jags playing out the string - and thats exactly the type of game that Cleveland may look past and that Jacksonville can step up and steal. While the Browns have won three of their past five, none of those three wins came by more than five. I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-29-20 | Dolphins v. Jets OVER 44.5 | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Miami/NYJ OVER the total. This season's earlier meeting was low-scoring (24-0) as the Jets couldn't score. While this O/U line is lower than that one was, I'm expecting considerably more points this afternoon. The Jets' offense has gotten rolling the past couple of weeks. Their past two games have had scores of 34-28 and 30-27. The Dolphins are off a low-scoring game. However, that was at Denver against a capable Bronco defense that really came to play that day. The Dolphins' previous two games had scores of 34-31 and 29-21. While some may see the return of Darnold and Fitzpatrick at QB as a negative, remember that these guys were previously the starters. Darnold wasn't working with a full deck before and now he is. Expect both offenses to move the ball, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
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11-29-20 | Dolphins v. Jets +7.5 | 20-3 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW YORK. This season's earlier meeting, at Miami, was a blowout (24-0) as the Jets couldn't score. I'm expecting a much better showing from NY this afternoon. While they still came up short, the Jets' offense has gotten rolling the past couple of weeks. Their past two games have had scores of 34-28 and 30-27. Darnold returns and unlike before, his receivers are healthy. In fact, this is the first time all season that all three of his starting receivers will be available. Don't be shocked if they rise to the occasion and score the outright upset. |
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11-29-20 | Panthers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. With Bridgewater expected to play against his former team, this line came down from its opener. I believe thats providing plenty of value with what I believe to be the superior team. Note that the Vikings are a profitable 30-17-1 ATS (34-14 SU) over the years, as a home favorite of three or less. I believe this line move is an over-reaction to last week's results. Yes, the Panthers looked good. However, their win came against the Lions. Before that, they'd lost four straight. Likewise, before last week's loss, the Vikings had won three straight. The Vikings convert very well when they get into the red zone. They also average more yards per play than any team in the league. Additionally, they've arguably got more to play for. Lay the small number and expect the Panthers to be unable to keep up. |
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11-28-20 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss OVER 68.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miss. State / Ole Miss OVER the total. In a battle of Mike Leach against Lane Kiffen, each known for their offensive mindsets, we can expect plenty of points in this one. Ole Miss games are averaging more than 80 points this season. The Rebels score 41 ppg and the allow 40.9. The Bulldogs haven't played in nearly as many high-scoring games. However, they're coming off a relatively high-scoring affair against Georgia. QB Will Rogers was 41 of 52 for more than 300 yards. On the other side, however, the Bulldogs gave up more than 400 yards (and 4 TDs) through the air. The Rebels have scored more than 50 in b2b weeks, throwing for nearly 1000 yards. They may well exceed the 50 mark again with the Bulldogs chipping in plenty of their own. |
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11-28-20 | Kentucky v. Florida UNDER 57.5 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 120 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Kentucky/Florida UNDER the total. Kentucky couldn't stop Alabama last week, giving up 63 points. While the Gators also have a potent offense, I expect the Wildcats to do a better job at slowing them down. Certainly, the Cats will be doing everything they can not to get embarrassed like that again. Keep in mind that Kentucky has still held three of five opponents, one of them Georgia, to 14 or fewer points. This will be the second time that the Wildcats played the second of b2b road games. The first time, they combined with Missouri for just 30 points. The Florida defense has been making some strides. Facing a Kentucky team which has scored just three points, in two of its last three games, will be a great opportunity for the "D" to really gain some confidence. Note that the last five meetings have all finished with 55 or fewer combined points. Going back further finds that this is a higher O/U line than any of the past 12 games between these teams. Look for it to prove to be too high. |
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11-28-20 | Kent State v. Buffalo -7 | 41-70 | Win | 100 | 75 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. This is a huge game in the MAC, as both the Golden Flashes and the Bulls are undefeated. While both teams can put up points, Buffalo is far better defensively. While Kent State is 4-11 its last 15 on the road, the Bulls rarely lose at home. During that span, they're 11-2 at home They've gone a highly lucrative 10-3 ATS in those games, too. In addition to needing the win to remain undefeated, the Bulls have a score to settle. Last year, they blew a 24-6 fourth quarter lead and lost 30-27 to these same Golden Flashes. They haven't lost since and all six of their wins have been by double-digits. Buffalo head coach Lance Leipold had this to say: "I think everyone knows about the loss last year. It's part of our film watching. Finishing, playing four quarters, being alert, special teams, sustaining momentum, all those things are constantly talked about. But, to sit there and dwell on it, it's not going to make it. We've acknowledged it, and I think that the guys that were in the game, they remember it and want to make sure we don't have any repeat performances." Expect the Bulls to keep the pedal to metal the entire way in this one, en route to their seventh straight double-digit win. |
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11-27-20 | Oregon -13 v. Oregon State | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on OREGON. They no longer officially call this game the "Civil War." That title was dropped several months ago. There's still no love lost between the two teams though and there's still a big class difference between them. Oregon is better on both sides of the ball. I like that the Ducks were tested by UCLA last week and how they responded and came through with a victory. Off that "close call," I believe they'll follow it up with a blowout win. The Ducks, who already covered at Washington State, are 6-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, as road favorites. Their last visit here, almost exactly two years ago, saw Oregon, which was laying 18 points, win by 40, a 55-15 destruction. Including that result, the Beavers are just 4-9-1 ATS their last 14 home games, 0-3 ATS when listed as home underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. Oregon coach Mario Cristobal said this of last week's win: "We were a little bit out of sync, and like we told those guys, ‘Look, when you win, you don’t apologize for winning, you don’t get down for winning, you just recognize where you got to get better.' And we weren’t at our very best, and we know that we have to improve certain things." Expect the Ducks to "get better" and for them to deliver their biggest blowout of the season, thus far. |
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11-27-20 | UMass +40 v. Liberty | 0-45 | Loss | -123 | 102 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UMASS. The Flames are off their first loss of the season. Now, they step down in class to take on a weaker team. Many will expect a blowout. Certainly, Liberty is the much stronger team. However, winning big and winning by more than five touchdowns are two entirely different matters. Losing that first game is tough to bounce back from, when that first loss comes this late in the season. That's particularly the case when the loss was by only one point, which was the case. The players are still thinking about "what might have been." Focusing on lowly UMass will be tough. The Minutemen have already played some tough teams (Marshall) and all of their games have come on the road. None of their losses were by more than 41. They're 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were underdogs of 31 or more. Only one of Liberty's seven wins came by more than 33. I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-26-20 | New Mexico v. Utah State +5.5 | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 80 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. Not exactly the best matchup, as both teams are 0-4. That doesn't mean we can't find ourselves excellent value though. Utah State isn't used to starting 0-4. It hasn't done so since 2007. The Aggies are going to be extremely motivated to get a win for their new coach. Last week's postponed game wasn't what they wanted, obviously, but may well benefit them this week. New Mexico didn't score a single point last game, getting blanked 28-0. Yet, the Lobos find themselves laying points on the road. Note that the Lobos are 4-10 ATS over the years, when listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. The Aggies are still 39-13 SU their last 52 home games. They've beaten the Lobos five of seven times since joining the MWC. They won at Albuquerque last year and they crushed the Lobos 61-19 here at Logan in 2018. Grab the points. |
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11-26-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys OVER 46 | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 77 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Washington/Dallas OVER the total. The Dallas offense got healthy last week. Dalton threw for three TD's. Elliott ran for more than 100 yards, for the first time all season. The Dallas defense still gave up 450 total yards though. The 31.8 ppg that the Cowboys allow is still the highest in the league. Washington has scored 20 or more points in four straight games, none of those games coming against teams which allow as many points as Dallas. They scored 25 in the earlier game against the Cowboys. They should get 20 or more once again, only this time, expect the Cowboys to contribute A LOT more of their own, sending the final combined score above the number. |
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11-26-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys -2.5 | 41-16 | Loss | -108 | 76 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DALLAS. Funny as it may seem, with both teams winning last week and the Eagles losing, this is a huge game in the NFC East. I believe that the Cowboys will be the team which carries the positive momentum forward into Thursday's showdown. I like that they showed they haven't quit for McCarthy. I also like that the Dallas offense got healthy last week. Dalton threw for three TD's. Elliott ran for more than 100 yards, for the first time all season. While they still gave up quite a few yards, the defense improved by holding a dangerous Minnesota to 28 points. Washington's offense isn't nearly as good as Minnesota's. The Football Team won when these teams met at Washington. However, this game is at Dallas and Washington has yet to win a road game this season. The Cowboys are quietly 5-0-1 ATS (6-0 SU) their last six, when facing a sub-500 team in the second half of the season. I say they get some payback here. |
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11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions UNDER 51 | 41-25 | Loss | -107 | 75 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Houston/Detroit UNDER the total. Given the current form of these offenses, I believe this number is generously high. The Lions didn't score a single point last time out, getting blanked 20-0 at Carolina. Not too good, considering that those same Panthers had been lit up for 46 points the previous week. The Lions would manage a mere 185 total yards. The Lions are now averaging 22.7 ppg. The Texans can relate. They, too, are averaging just 22.7 ppg. Last time on the road, they scored just seven. On the other side, the Houston defense has made some strides of late; they've allowed an average of 15 ppg the past two games. While I won with the 'over' in last year's Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit, we're working with a much higher number here. I say that it proves to be too high. |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs -4 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on TAMPA. Both these teams came through for me in their last game. I won with the Rams when they beat the Seahawks and I won with the Bucs when they beat Carolina. So, I'm aware that both looked very good. Playing at home, I expect the Bucs to be the team which keeps on rolling this week. While I really respect the Rams, I believe that they're at the wrong place, at the wrong time. Yes, Tampa bounced back with a big win last week. However, that wasn't on "primetime." The Bucs still have a bad taste in their mouths after getting smacked around by the Saints on Sunday night football. I did successfully play against Tampa in Brady's MNF debut as a Buc. That was against the Giants though and it was a case of the situation favoring NY and the Bucs laying too many points. Then, there was the Week 5 game where Brady forgot what down it was at the end of the game. My point is, that the Bucs haven't exactly shined in primetime and that I expect that to be a motivating factor for them in this one. This is a chance to make people forget, a convincing win tonight and everything is forgotten. Of course, they're also chasing New Orleans in the division and can't afford to fall further behind. The Bucs are 4-1-1 ATS (5-1 SU) their last six, as favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 range. I really liked the way that they bounced last week and I expect them to follow it up with a "statement win" tonight. |
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11-22-20 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 57 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -105 | 121 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/LV UNDER the total. Everyone knows that the Chiefs' offense remains really good. However, its their defense which quietly remains underrated. Their 20.3 ppg allowed ranks #6 in the NFL. After getting lit up for 40 points by these same Raiders, the champs responded by allowing 17, 16 and nine points in their next three games. With an extra week to prepare, thanks to last week's bye, I expect the coaching staff to do a much better job at slowing down the Raiders. The Raiders have recently started to get pretty stingy themselves. Last time out, they limited Denver to 12 points. Remember, they rang in November with a 16-6 win at Cleveland. Prior to last month's high-scoring affair, these teams had seen their previous three meetings all finish below the 50 mark, with combined scores of 49, 38 and 38. Overall, seven of the past 10 meetings have fallen below the number. We're working with a very big number, higher than any of those previous 10 meetings, and I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-22-20 | Dolphins v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 141 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. Off a few big wins and with a couple of winnable games (Jets, Bengals) on deck, I believe that this will prove to be a letdown spot for the Dolphins. Yes, they've been winning but the stats show that they've been somewhat fortunate to be doing so. I don't think they're ready to go on the road and defeat what figures to be a desperate Denver team. Not only that, the Dolphins are being asked to lay points. Its possible that Drew Lock's ribs will force him to the bench. That's not necessarily a bad thing though, as the offense could use a spark. You may recall Rypien leading the Broncos to a win on Thursday night football earlier. A look at the yards for/against for both teams shows the gap isn't nearly what the records suggest. Not only does Denver average more passing yards than Miami, the Broncos also average more rushing yards. Additionally, the Broncos allow fewer total yards on defense. I'll grab the points but I'm expecting the outright win. |
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11-22-20 | Eagles +3.5 v. Browns | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 114 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. A look at the Browns' last month shows that they're 0-4 ATS. Two double-digit losses and two 3-point wins. Facing what figures to be a desperate Philadelphia team, I expect the Browns to have their hands full the entire way, once again. At 3-5-1, remarkably, the Eagles are still on top of the NFC East. However, they've got the 3-7 Giants, a team which just beat them, "breathing down their necks. In other words, the Eagles can't afford to drop another. With the Giants on a bye, this is their chance to regain a firmer grip on the division. Considering that the Eagles' next three opponents are the Seahawks, Packers and Saints (followed by a road game at Arizona) winning this one becomes that much more important. Indeed, while the Browns are no slouches, those next four opponents are a combined 26-10. Expect the Eagles to play with a sense or urgency, en route to AT LEAST the cover. |
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11-22-20 | Patriots v. Texans +2.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. I waited on this one in the hope that Houston go all the way up to +3. That hasn't happened yet but the reality is that I expect the Texans will win this one outright. I had been planning on playing them all the way up to -2.5. So, any points are added bonus. To their credit, off b2b wins, the Pats have managed to keep themselves alive in the race. I'm not a believer though. Both those wins were at home, one was against the winless Jets. This team is not evern close to what it used to be. Newton, while playing better of late, is not Brady. The Pats are just 1-4 ATS (and SU) the past five times that they were listed as road favorites of three or less. Houston comes in hungry and I won't consider it an "upset" when it comes away with the victory. |
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11-21-20 | USC -2.5 v. Utah | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 135 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing on USC. The Trojans have failed to cover in each of their first two games, nearly getting upset in each. However, in both cases, they found a way to win. Those type of wins build character and momentum. Having gotten a couple of close calls out of the way, I expect the talented Trojans to put it all together in this one. They're facing a Utah team which lost a lot of players from last season and which will be playing its first game of the season. Not playing is hard enough but all the added stress related to the virus situation has to be hard on the Utes. USC won by seven when these teams met last season. Given the situation, I expect an even bigger margin of victory in this one. |
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11-21-20 | USC v. Utah OVER 57.5 | Top | 33-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC/Utah OVER the total. The Trojans can and will score. Utah should be able to do so, too. Kyle Whittingham had this to say of his team: "... We have some good things going for us on offense with very few new players and it being a veteran group. We expect to be productive on offense. The key is also how quickly this defense can come around ..." Indeed, the Utes lost a lot on the defensive side of the ball. Nine starters are gone from last year's defense. The Trojans will take advantage by putting up a big number. The OVER is 4-0-1 the last five in the series. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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11-21-20 | Arizona v. Washington -10.5 | 27-44 | Win | 100 | 107 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. This is going to prove a tough spot for the Wildcats. They left it all on the field last week and nearly upset USC. However, they fell short in the end. Those type of losses are deflating. Now, they're on the road against what will be a hungry Husky team. Making matters worse, the Cats are playing their first road game of the "pandemic era" and they're going to be dealing with some nasty Pacific Northwest weather. Never very good on the road, the Cats will also be dealing with a very capable Washington defense. The Huskies didn't play great in their first game under their new coach, but still found a way to beat OSU by six. A game under their belts and with the positive momentum that comes from winning, I expect them to follow it up with a big effort here. The Huskies won 51-27 last year and they won 49-3 the last time that the teams played here in Seattle. Lay the points and expect Washington to pull away for another double-digit win. |
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11-21-20 | Liberty v. NC State -152 | 14-15 | Win | 100 | 106 h 0 m | Show | |
I'm playing NC STATE on the money-line. The Flames have a perfect 8-0 record but the Wolfpack are favored for a reason. Yes, Liberty managed an improbable upset at Virginia Tech. The Flames definitely deserve credit for that one. The rest of the schedule has been pretty soft though, Syracuse being the next toughest. NC State, on the other hand, has faced quality teams every time out. They've been underdogs in six of eight games. The only two games they were favored came against Duke and Florida State. The Pack were 2-0 SU/ATS in those games. While I fully expect another cover, I'll lay the short price on the money-line, due to the fact that NC State has had three games decided by three or less, while Liberty has seen two of its games decided by three or less. Expect the Wolfpack to end the Flames' perfect season. |
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11-21-20 | Cincinnati v. Central Florida +6 | Top | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 93 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCF. The Bearcats are having a great season and won't be easy to beat. However, I believe that the Knights are peaking at the right time and feel that they have the offense to do so. Indeed, UCF leads the nation with 619 yards and 44 points per game. The UCF offensive line has been playing great and will be the first team this season capable of handling the physicality of Cincy's defensive front. UCF took a bit to get going, understandable with all the pandemic stuff going on. The Knights are firing on all cylinders now though. UCF tackle Ed Collins noted: "The bye week after the Tulsa loss, we came together as a unit pretty good ..." Last year's game at Cincy was decided by just three points. The Knights won the previous three meetings, all by double-digits. Grab the points. |
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11-21-20 | Appalachian State +6 v. Coastal Carolina | 23-34 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. The Chanticleers are one of the biggest stories of the season. So far. They deserve all the credit they're getting. However, with all that hype comes inflated lines. In this case, they're laying a pretty big number against a really good Appalachian State team. I believe that's asking too much. Coastal Carolina could have some rust, after last week's game was postponed due to Covid-related issues. While Coastal Carolina is undefeated, the Mountaineers are 7-1 and have won five straight. While their QB is day-to-day, the Mountaineers have a highly capable senior backup, Jacob Huesman. This season's Mountaineers have been winning but not covering, as favorites. When listed as underdogs, they're a perfect 4-0 ATS the past 2+ seasons. They've allowed 17 or fewer points in four straight games. No opponent has scored more than 21 against them all season. Expect them to give the Chanticleers all they can handle with a great shot at the outright upset. |
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11-20-20 | Purdue v. Minnesota OVER 61 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Purdue/Minnesota OVER the total. These teams have both faced some stingy opponents thus far, particularly last time out. Purdue comes off a game against Northwestern while Minnesota had to contend with Iowa. Both those teams are allowing less than 15 ppg, their defenses currently ranking among the nation's leaders. Neither of these teams are quite as stingy though, so both offenses will have a chance to "get healthy." Purdue did put up a respectable 31 points (at Illinois) in its lone road game. The Gophers, meanwhile, scored 85 points in their two games before Iowa, 44 against Maryland and 41 against Illinois. On the other side of the ball, it should be mentioned that the Gophers lost a ton on defense from last year and that's led to them allowing 35.8 ppg, worst in the Big Ten. Minnesota racked up nearly 500 yards of offense in winning last year's game by a 38-31 score. That one finished well above the total and I look for tonight's game to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 58 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on SEATTLE. While I've played against the Seahawks in each of their last two games, I like them to bounce back here. For the first time in awhile, the Hawks aren't coming off a flight through different time zones. I've pointed out that they've been going back and forth from from coast to coast for awhile now. While it may be a short week, they're finally staying in the Pacific time zone for consecutive games. Speaking of the short week, without much time in between games, I feel that homefield will provide Seattle with a big edge. Note that Arizona has played three straight at home and before that it played road games against the Jets and Cowboys, a pair of teams who are a combined 2-16. Their previous road game was at Carolina and the Cards lost by double-digits. Obviously, this is a much tougher venue. The Hawks are 6-1 SU and 4-1-2 ATS their past seven, when off a division loss. During that span, they were also 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS when off b2b SU losses. Wilson and co. haven't forgotten the Cards' comeback against them last month. Tonight, they get some payback, covering the small number along the way. |
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11-19-20 | Tulane v. Tulsa OVER 51.5 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Tulane/Tulsa OVER the total. Tulsa scored only 28 points last time out. However, in its previous three games, the Golden Hurricane tallied 34, 42 and 34. Facing what I still believe to be a porous Tulane defense, I expect them to "bounce back" with a huge offensive outburst. They're going to need to, in order to keep up with a Tulane offense which is firing on all cylinders. The Green Wave have been favored in their past few games and they've played sound defense in winning those. They've now allowed 27 or fewer points all six times that they were favored. However, the numbers tell a different story when Tulane has been an underdog. The Green Wave have been underdogs three times this season and they allowed 51, 37 and 49 points. The Green Wave topped 30 in each of those games themselves, making for a perfect 3-0 OVER mark when they've been underdogs. Those games finished with 85, 71 and 80 combined points, respectively. After scoring 38 in three straight games, the Green Wave have now quietly scored more than 30 points in seven straight games, including 66 in one of those. Last year's game finished with 64 points, bringing the OVER to 5-1 the past six in this series. Those five "overs" had combined scores of 64, 90, 77, 79 and 69. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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11-18-20 | Northern Illinois v. Ball State -13.5 | 25-31 | Loss | -115 | 59 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. While the schedule maker hasn't done them any favors, the Huskies aren't a good team right now. They lost 49-30 against Buffalo. That wasn't that bad. But they followed it up with a 40-10 loss vs. Central Michigan. Both those games were at home, too. Now, they take to the road to face a Ball State team which is off a momentum-building 38-31 win over Eastern Michigan. With their next two games both coming on the road, both against quality opponents, the Cardinals know that they absolutely need to take care of business in this one. After years of abuse at the hands of the Huskies, they ended the drought last season, winning at NIU. Now, they'll look to deliver a blowout to a longtime nemesis. The Cardinals have the offense to exploit the inexperienced NIU secondary. Expect them to do exactly that. |
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11-18-20 | Toledo -6.5 v. Eastern Michigan | 45-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing TOLEDO on the money-line. I see this game going one of two ways. Either Toledo wins big. Or, Toledo wins a close one. Either way, I see Toledo winning. I suggest the possibility of a "close one," as Toledo is off a 3-point game and as both of EMU's games have been decided by a touchdown or less. Note that the Eagles lost both of those SU, while winning both ATS. Going back further finds that the Eagles are 5-11 SU as underdogs but 11-5 ATS. Again, one would be much better off playing against them on the moneyline. Toledo suffered a very tough loss against Western Michigan last time out. However, the Rockets also destroyed Bowling Green by a 38-3 score. In terms of talent, I believe that Eastern Michigan is closer to Bowling Green than it is to Western Michigan. Yes, the WMU loss was a heartbreaker. However, while not as dramatic, the Eagles' loss against Ball State was also pretty "heartbreaking." (EMU was up 24-13 in the second half and gave up winning TD with six seconds left.) I believe Toledo, better on both sides of the ball, will prove more capable at bouncing back. Rockets win. |
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11-17-20 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green UNDER 59 | Top | 42-17 | Push | 0 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/BG UNDER the total. Six of the past eight meetings between these teams have fallen below the number. While last year's game was not one of them, we're working with a higher O/U number this season. (Last year's game had a final score of 49-7 and the O/U line was 53.5.) In a game where I expect the home team to struggle scoring, I feel that the bigger number is providing us with very fair value. I won with the Bulls last week but I also won a free play on their game to go 'under' the total. In both cases, I mentioned how the Buffalo defense was really stingy last season and that the Bulls had brought back a lot of players on the defensive side of the ball. The Bulls would go on to hold Miami Ohio to just 10 points and only 258 total yards. That was against the defending MAC champs. Now, they face a much worse Bowling Green team, one which scored just three points in its opening game against Toledo. Indeed, the Falcons are likely going to have trouble scoring in this one. Last week, the Bulls "aired it out," their QB enjoying a record day. Even so, the game stayed below the total. Facing an inferior opponent, I expect the Bulls to place a bigger emphasis on the ground game in this one. The Bulls are likely to put up quite a few points but not enough to get over this number; I've already noted I don't expect them to get much help from the Falcons. Look for the final combined score to prove lower than many will be expecting. |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -115 | 149 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. Talk about no respect. The Bears have the better record. They're playing at home. They've had their way with the Vikes. Cousins never wins on MNF. Yet, the Vikes are favored? Some will suspect a "trap" and think the Vikes are the way to go. There's no trap though. Its just a matter of the books needing to balance the action and they know that the betting public is really down on Chicago. I've had success both playing on and playing against the Bears. In this case, that public sentiment has provided us with excellent value and I believe they're absolutely in a "play on" spot. Sure, Cousins wants to finally win a Monday night game. However, the Bears want the game every bit as much and they typically do a great job in shutting down Cousins. The Bears have also done a great job at slowing down Cook. Indeed, Chicago is 4-0 its past four against the Vikings, 3-0 since Cousins took over. The Vikes have managed a mere 29 points in those three games combined, Cook averaging only 29 ypg. Cousins will eventually get his MNF win. Just not this week. Grab the points. |
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11-15-20 | Ravens v. Patriots UNDER 44 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 125 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baltimore/New England UNDER the total. I won with the Patriots to go 'over' in their last game, against the Jets. Therefore, you might wonder why I'd go with the 'under' against Baltimore, which has a better offense than New York. Well, there are a number of reasons. The obvious is that the Ravens have a much better defense than the Jets. Last week, they limited the Colts to just 10 points. In fact, they're allowing just 17.8 ppg, which is best in the entire NFL. (By comparison, the Jets allow 29.8 ppg, 27th best in the NFL.) Also, while the Jets were "playing out the string," every game is a big deal for Baltimore. In other words, there should be no lack of defensive intensity. We're also working with a higher O/U line than we were for the MNF game against the Jets, one which climbed from its opener to provide additional line value. It should also be noted that these teams both run the ball. A lot. The Ravens run the ball 33.3 times per game, #1 in the NFL. The Pats run the ball 32.8 times per game, tied for #2. With two stingy defenses and two offenses keeping the clock moving by running the ball with regularity, expect a low-scoring affair. |
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11-15-20 | 49ers +10 v. Saints | 13-27 | Loss | -125 | 124 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SF. Off their huge win over Brady and the Bucs, the Saints are feeling pretty good about themselves. They celebrated afterwards as if they'd won a really big game. I believe they'll be ripe for a letdown against the defending NFC champs. SF has dealt with a ton of injuries this season but continues to play hard. Off b2b losses, their season slipping away, I expect the well-coached 49'ers to deliver their very best effort. The Saints are just 4-10 ATS the past 14 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. During that span, they're also only 3-8 ATS when off a division win. I'm grabbing all those points. |
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11-15-20 | Seahawks v. Rams -120 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 124 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing LA on the moneyline. In playing against Seattle last week, I mentioned that the Seahawks had been going back and forth from the East Coast to the West Coast nearly every week. I wrote that I thought those trips, along with injuries, were starting to catch up with Seattle. This week, once again, the Hawks are playing a game, after having traveled across the country. Of course, the Rams are also on the West Coast. So, they have to make a lot of trips back and forth, too. However, that's not the case this week, as they're coming off a bye. I believe that will give them a big advantage over their road weary guests. The Rams need this one more than their guests. Its a huge game for them and I expect them to come through with the victory. |
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11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -1 | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 124 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. I played on both of these teams last week. The Bills came through for me against Seattle. Arizona let me down against Miami. Catching the Bills away from Buffalo, I expect the Cardinals to bounce back this week. The Bills are 0-2 ATS their last two on the road. They won but didn't cover against the Jets. Prior to that, the last time that they faced a non-divisional opponent on the road, they lost 42-16 at Tennessee. The Cards have scored 30 or more points in four straight games. A closer look at the stats from the Miami game shows that Arizona actually outgained the Dolphins in both the air and on the ground, a total of 442 yards to 312. The Cards had a solid edge in yards per play, as well as having the advantage in first downs and time of possession. Indeed, it easily could have gone the other way. While the Bills did them a favor by beating the Hawks, don't expect the Cards to do them any favors Sunday. Look for Arizona to bounce back, improving to 7-2 ATS the past nine times it played a game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. |
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11-15-20 | Broncos +5.5 v. Raiders | Top | 12-37 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER for the first half. The Broncos have gotten off to some slow starts and that's led to them having to play from behind. (In three straight weeks, they've been behind by double-digits by halftime.) They're determined to avoid that happening again. QB Lock commented: ''There's a lot of football left and we just have to hit our stride earlier in games.'' The Broncos secondary figures to get a boost as starting corners Bouye and Callahan are expected back. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS the past four times that they were off two or more consecutive wins, 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were off a divisional win. Expect them to have their hands full right from the get go and don't be surprised when the Broncos start fast and take a lead into the lockerroom. |
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11-15-20 | Bucs -4.5 v. Panthers | 46-23 | Win | 100 | 120 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TB. The Bucs were humiliated last week, a 38-3 destruction at the hands of Drew Brees and the Saints. While I was humbled along with them, I fully expect them to bounce right back on Sunday afternoon. The Panthers also lost. However, unlike the Bucs, who got blown out, Carolina lost a heartbreaker. The Panthers very nearly upset the defending World Champs but ultimately fell short, a 33-31 setback. That was their fourth straight loss and it had to really sting. That would have been the highlight of their season and for them to leave it all on the field, only to come up short, will be tough to bounce back from. Note that Carolina was 0-8 SU (1-7 ATS) the past two seasons, in Week 10-13. Off this season's only previous division loss, also against New Orleans, the Bucs answered by beating these same Panthers by a 31-17 score. Expect more of the same here as Brady and the Bucs bounce back again, sweeping the season series while covering the relatively small number along the way. |
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11-15-20 | Washington Football Team v. Lions -170 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing DETROIT on the money-line. While both teams have struggled, I expect the Lions to pick up a rare home win in this one. While Washington has been better defensively, Detroit has been considerably better on offense. Washington ranks just 30th in terms of both points per game and yards per game. While Alex Smith is a great story, he threw three INTs last week and I don't think he's going to be able to keep up with Stafford and the Lions. Washington beat Detroit by a field goal at Washington, in a game the Lions played without Stafford, last season. The last meeting here at Detroit (2016) saw the Lions win by a field goal. With that victory, the Lions have won four of the past five meetings. I say they find a way to get it done again Sunday. |
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11-15-20 | California v. UCLA +4 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCLA. Needless to say, the circumstances are a little different for this one. Both teams were supposed to play a different opponent. Cal, which had its first game postponed too, was set to face Arizona State. UCLA was scheduled to host Utah. Both games had to be canceled due to those teams having Covid concerns. That means that neither team has had much time to prepare for the other. I like the fact, however, that UCLA has already played a game. That would already be an advantage but potentially more so, given the situation. While the Bears won last season, the Bruins have won five of the past seven meetings. Two of those seven games were decided by a field goal or less. While I expect the outright upset, in a game which could also come down to the wire, I'm happy to grab the points. |
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11-14-20 | UNLV v. San Jose State OVER 58.5 | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV/SJ State OVER the total. I won with the 'under' in the Rebels' first game. I also won with the 'under' in the Spartans' last game. However, in both those cases, the opponent was San Diego State. In both cases, the reason I was playing the 'under' was because I respected the SDSU defense and expected the Aztecs to slow the game down. I also mentioned that UNLV was learning a new offense. Things are different now though. The Spartans offense is quietly pretty potent. San Jose State scored 28 against SD State and they scored 38 points in their game before that. The Spartans should put up a big number against a porous UNLV defense which has allowed 34, 37 and 40 points. On the other side of the ball, the Rebels have been learning the offense and scoring more and more points each time out. They started by scoring only six in the game against the Aztecs. That was followed by 19 vs. Navy and 27 last time out. Last year's meeting had a score of 38-35. The year before had a score of 50-37. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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11-14-20 | Hawaii v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on SDSU. This is already Hawaii's third road game in the past four weeks. They got crushed (at Wyoming) last time away from the island and this figures to be an even tougher venue. I expect the travel to catch up with them. Off last week's loss, the Aztecs are going to be in an angry mood. Last week's loss notwithstanding, the Aztecs have a very stingy defense. Expect Hawaii, which managed only seven points last time on the road, to have trouble finding the end zone. The Aztecs have additional motivation in this one as Hawaii has actually beaten them in b2b seasons, including a 31-30 upset, as double-digit underdogs, last time here. Its payback time today, the Aztecs keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. |
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11-13-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Florida International +10 | 38-19 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FIU. Since a 33-31 win by the Panthers in 2016, the Owls have had their way in this series. I believe that the Panthers are ready to give them a challenge tonight though and feel that the generous line is providing us with very fair value. Keep in mind that the O/U line for this game is very low. So, there aren't many points expected, yet the Owls are being asked to lay double-digits on the road. That's asking a lot. Indeed, the Owls are averaging only 16 ppg. (FIU averages 24.) The Panthers, who are very well rested for this game, have quietly gone 7-3 ATS the past 10 times that they were getting points. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
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11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +4 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Coach P.J. Fleck has turned the Gophers around, since his arrival in 2017. However, he has yet to beat Iowa. Even last year's team, which went 11-2, lost to the Hawkeyes. Needless to say, Fleck and the Gophers are extremely motivated to finally get a win in this series. They've got the offense to do it and they're playing at home. Last year's game was at Iowa and was decided by just four points. Yes, the Hawkeyes looked really good in beating up on Michigan State. However, they also lost by four points (at Purdue) in their lone road game. Additionally, Northwestern beat them by a point. Minnesota, young but talented, is getting better each time out. The Gophers are off a big win of their own and have scored more than 40 in b2b games. I expect Fleck to have them ready to play and look for them to give their guests all that they can handle, taking the game down to the wire and earning AT LEAST the cover. |
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11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State -13.5 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BOISE. The Rams are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off their worst home loss in 24 years, the Broncos are going to be in an extremely foul mood. The last time (9/15/18 vs. OSU) that they lost a regular season game by double-digits, they responded by hammering Wyoming by a 34-14 score, as -15.5 point favorites, their next game. CSU won at home last week but lost its lone road game, 38-17 at Fresno. The last time that the Broncos hosted the Rams, they won by 28. Expect the angry Broncos to pull away for another win and cover. |
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11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 61 | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boise/CSU UNDER the total. The Broncos have been going 'over' the total so far this season but I expect that to change tonight. Off their worst home loss in 24 years, the Broncos are going to be looking to improve defensively. The last time (9/15/18 vs. OSU) that they lost a regular season game by double-digits, they responded by holding Wyoming to 14 points, a 34-14 victory. The Cowboys had 0 points at halftime and seven going into the fourth. I say that the Broncos come out and dominate defensively right from the opening whistle, once again. Dating back to last season, the Rams have seen six of their past eight road games stay below the number. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -8 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -117 | 33 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. The Cardinals lost a tough one, at Miami Ohio, in their opener. While they would have liked to have it, they can afford that loss. They can't afford to lose this one though. That Cardinals improved last year and narrowly missed a bowl game. They lost each of their final three games by four or less to finish at 5-7. Thats a bad taste that they're still trying to get rid of. This is the perfect opportunity to do just that. The Eagles earned a somewhat fortunate cover (SU loss) in their opener. However, they're one of the weaker teams in the conference and now they're playing their second straight on the road. Ball State believes it can take the next step this season. If thats to be the case, the Cardinals need to take care of business on Wednesday. The Cardinals can and wil score a lot of points. Ultimately, I don't expect the Eagles to be able to keep up. |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -7 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. These teams both took care of buiness in week 1. Miami won 38-31 against Ball State. Buffalo won 49-31 at NIU. While the RedHawks are a good team, I don't think they're as good as the Bulls. While they gave up a lot of points on the road in their opener, the Bulls were excellent on defense last season and they brought back a lot of players on that side of the ball. Really, the defense was actually pretty good against the Huskies the problem was that it had to defend some short fields, due to turnovers. The Bulls are very well-coached and we saw what the offense can do. The home team is 3-0 SU/ATS the past three years in this series. Miami won 34-20 last year but Buffalo won 51-42 here two seasons ago. Expect the Bulls to put up big numbers on the ground and for their superior defense to lead them to a double-digit win. |
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11-10-20 | Akron v. Ohio OVER 56.5 | 10-24 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Akron/Ohio OVER the total. Given their recent history and given the way both teams' opening game played out, I feel that this O/U line is a little low. Akron gave up 58 points its opening game, a 58-13 loss. Ohio combined with Central Michigan for 57 points. However, that one could have easily been higher-scoring, as they already had 40 by halftime; only three fourth quarter points were scored. Still, Ohio QB (Kurtis) Rourke now has a game under his belt after replacing his brother. Nathan. He'll be salivating at a chance to light up the porous Zips' defense. The last three meetings between these teams have averaged 67+ points. Akron's last visit here had an O/U line of 57. Yet, the teams combined for 77, a 49-28 win for Ohio. I expect a similar result from these instate rivals this evening. |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on NE/NYJ OVER the total. Tough day for the Patriots yesterday, as the Bills (and Dolphins) won. Reality is setting in for even the most diehard Patriot fans. Regardless of what happens tongiht, their long-standing reign at the top of the division will be coming to an end. Of course, the Jets have been playing out the string for awhile now. They've essentially been out of playoff contention the entire season. All that said, this is more of a game for pride than anything else. Those kind of games, in my experience, tend to be more high-scoring. I expect that to be the case tonight. Keep in mind that the O/U line is lower than ANY of the O/U lines yesterday. So, we don't need to have that high-scoring a game, in order to finish above the total. The Pats scored 21 against the Bills last week and now they're facing a Jets team which allows 29.8 ppg. While the Jets' offense has certainly struggled with Darnold behind center recently, I like that Flacco will be in there tonight. The veteran QB had this to say: ''The bottom line is, it's a lot easier going into the game knowing that I'm playing now than it is to come off the bench at some point in the game. I've gotten my feet wet and all those kinds of things,'' he said. ''So, I feel really good going into the game.'' Look for both offenses to "get healthy" the final combined score finishing above the low number. |
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11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs -4 | 38-3 | Loss | -110 | 140 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TB. While I have a lot of respect for both these teams, I successfully played against both of them last week. Both were tested. Both won but failed to cover. I won with the Saints (first half) when these teams met earlier in the season. I thought the Bucs were a little overhyped and that they might struggle out of the gate, at a very tough venue. Now, however, Brady has had time to gel with his new team. Now, revenge-minded Brady is playing at home. The last time that the Bucs played here, they hammered the Packers by a 38-10 score. They were dominant on both sides of the ball. While they may not have played their best, I like the way that the Bucs found a way to win a close one Monday, after dropping their previous close one. Expect Brady and co. to build momentum from that win, avenging the earlier loss while covering the small number along the way. |
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11-08-20 | Dolphins v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Dolphins are off an "impressive" win over the Rams, the "Tagovailo era" starting on the right foot. However, that was at home and they were catching LA having gone back and forth across the country and playing its third road game in four weeks. Also, while earning a victory was indeed impressive, a look at the stats shows that the Miami offense actually managed only 145 total yards. That was the fewest number of yards, by a team which won by double-digits, since way back in 2006. On the other side, the Dolphins gave up 471 yards. No, thats not a misprint. The Dolphins were outgained by a 471 to 145 margin. Needless to say, thats not a recipe for success. Off three straight wins, most recently a big comeback win against Seattle, Arizona is playing great. The Cards know they can't afford to take their foot off the gast though. Not in the ultra competitive NFC West. Prior to the narrow win over the previously undefeated Seahawks, Arizona had won its previous two games by a combined score of 68-20. The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS (0-7 SU) the past seven times that they were road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. Lay the small number and expect the superior team to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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11-08-20 | Panthers v. Chiefs UNDER 53 | 31-33 | Loss | -118 | 90 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Carolina/KC UNDER the total. Mahomes rightfully steals all the headlines. However, the champs are quietly playing very well on the other side of the ball. Last week, they allowed just nine points. Thats three straight weeks that the Chiefs have allowed 17 or fewer points, one of those games coming against previously high-scoring Buffalo. At 19 ppg allowed overall, the Chiefs are tied for third in the league, in terms of points allowed. Now, they'll face a Carolina team which managed only 17 points against Atlanta last week, the second time in three weeks that the Panthers scored 17 or less. I expect the Panthers to have trouble scoring. Since a high-scoring opener against Vegas, the Panthers have seen all seven of their games finish with less than 52 points. Look for this one to do the same. |
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11-08-20 | Bears v. Titans -6 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 76 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing TENNESEE on the money-line. These teams have both treated me pretty well. I'm 4-0 in Bear games and 2-0 in Titan games, 3-0 if factoring in last week's 'free play' on the Bengals. I won with the 'under' in their game against the Broncos and I backed the Titans when they crushed the Bills. With the Bears, I successfully played on them in their game against the Saints last week and also in their win over Tampa. I played against them when they lost to the Rams and the Colts. I like how this one sets up for the home team. The Titans are going to be hungry, off b2b losses. They're 5-1 SU (4-1-1 ATS) the past couple of seasons, when off b2b SU losses. While the Bears have also dropped b2b games, last week's loss was particularly deflating. They're now playing their third road game in the past four weeks. The Bears are 3-6 SU their past nine against teams from the AFC. The Titans, meanwhile, are 7-2 SU their last nine against teams from the NFC. While they haven't done a great job of covering as favorites (except against Buffalo!) the Titans have won four of six, straight-up, when favored. I fully expect another victory here. |
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11-08-20 | Seahawks v. Bills +3 | 34-44 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. Obviously, I respect Wilson, Carroll and the Seahawks. I had a big play on them just last week. Wilson has absolutely been deserviing of all the praise he's receiving. Still, this team has been through a lot. Injuries. Numerous trips back and forth from Seattle to other parts of the country. Though I'm aware that the West Coast based Hawks typically thrive in these early games, I believe this will be a tough spot. The Bills come in with a lot to prove. The last time that they faced an "elite" team, they lost against the Chiefs. This is their chance to show that they'll be able to compete with the top tier teams, come playoff time. I expect them to rise to the occasion. With last week's win but ATS loss, they're 6-2-1 ATS the last few Novembers, winning seven of those outright. I'll take the points but I like their chances at the upset here. |
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11-08-20 | Lions v. Vikings UNDER 52.5 | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Detroit/Minnesota UNDER the total. I looked back at the last 20 meetings between these division rivals and NONE of them had an O/U line this high. Even with the lower totals, this has been a low-scoring series of late. Three of the past four meetings and six of the past eight, have finished below the number. The most recent meeting was last December. The O/U line was 44. The teams combined for just 27 points. Going back a bit further finds the UNDER at 10-3 the past 13 meetings. The Lions have allowed 23 or fewer points in each of their past three on the road. The Vikings held the Packers to just 22 last game. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. |
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11-07-20 | Washington State v. Oregon State UNDER 64 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on WSU/OSU UNDER the total. These teams have had some recent shootouts and they played a crazy 54-53 game against each other last year. However, that may not even get half that many here. This year, both these teams brought back a lot more production on the defensive side of the ball than on the offensive one. The Cougars have a brand new offense, as they're making the move from the "Air Raid" to the "Run-And-Shoot." While that may prove better in the long run, a brand new offense with a lot of new players can't be expected to click in its very first game. Expect more running plays to help chew up the clock. As for the Beavers, they lost QB Jake Luton to the NFL. That's never easy to replace an NFL quality quarterback. All things considered, this number is generously high. |
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11-07-20 | South Alabama +18 v. Coastal Carolina | 6-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SOUTH ALABAMA. The Chanticleers are one of the biggest stories of the season. So far. They deserve all the credit they're getting. However, with all that hype comes inflated lines. In this case, they're in unfamiliar territory, laying more than two TDs. The only previous time that they were asked to lay double-digits this season (Campbell on 9/18) resulted in their lone ATS loss. As impressive as they've been, I don't believe that they're more than 17 points better than the Jaguars. While South Alabama is only 3-3, two of those three losses came by a TD or less. Speaking of close games, these teams met in 2018 and the game was decided by a field goal, a 31-28 win for USA. Don't be "shocked" when the Jags take this game down to the wire with a shot at the upset. |
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11-07-20 | Tennessee -1.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -113 | 51 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Razorbacks have arguably overachieved. However, they're still one of the weaker teams in the conference. I feel that the Vols have an edge in talent. I also really like the fact that they had last week off. They'd had a tough stretch of games, so the bye absolutely came at the right time. Its given them a chance to regroup and to focus on taking care of business in this winnable game. While the Vols are slight favorites, as of this writing, its a small enough line that a SU win should also equal an ATS win. Thats noteworthy as Tennessee is 52-11 SU as a road favorite over the years. This season, the only time that they were favored on the road, the Vols took care of business by winning (and covering) at South Carolina. While Pittman is in his first season with Arkansas, this is year 3 of the "Pruitt era" in Tennessee. If the Vols want to get to .500, this is a game they absolutely need to win. The Vols are 4-1 SU the last five under Pruitt, after losing their previous two games. (The loss came at Alabama.) Desperate for a victory, expect them to bounce back. |
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11-07-20 | Florida v. Georgia -153 | 44-28 | Loss | -153 | 47 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing GEORGIA on the money-line. While it won't be quite the "cocktail party" that it normally is, this is still arguably the biggest game on the board. It should be a good one. While many are likely to back the Gators, I believe that the day will belong to the Bulldogs. While both teams have their strengths, I believe that this game will be ultimately be decided by the team with superior line play, an area where I favor Georgia. Everyone is down on the Bulldogs due to the big loss against Alabama. However, a win today gets them a likely rematch with the Tide in the SEC Title game. I like how the Bulldogs bounced back and allowed just three points last game. The Bulldogs are 27-3 the past 30 times that they were favored. Look for them to dig deep and improve on those stats this afternoon. |
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11-07-20 | West Virginia v. Texas -6 | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS. It took the Longhorns a bit to get going this season. They have now though. Off a double-digit win against Baylor, they won outright at Oklahoma State last week. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into Saturday's game. West Virginia is 4-0 at home but 0-2 on the road this season, losing by seven at Texas Tech and by 14 at OK. State. Going back a bit further finds that the Mountaineers are 5-9 ATS over the years as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. Meanwhile, during the same span, the Longhorns are 13-6-1 ATS (18-2 SU!) as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. The Longhorns won by 11 last season. I see them pulling away for another double-digit win on Saturday afternoon. |
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11-06-20 | BYU v. Boise State +4 | 51-17 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BOISE. Needless to say, the Cougars have been playing great. That said, I don't believe that they've faced a defense this good yet. Asking them to lay points at this venue, where they're 0-5, is asking a lot. While the Cougars won last year, that was at BYU and they won by just three points. The Broncos won the previous three. Three of the last four have been decided by five or fewer points. As mentioned, BYU has never won in this stadium. While they haven't have a chance to face one for awhile, the Broncos are 4-0 their last four against top 10 teams. No. 7 Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl (43-42, OT), No. 4 TCU in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl (17-10), No. 10 Virginia Tech in 2010 (33-30) and No. 10 Arizona in the 2014 Fiesta Bowl (38-30). BYU's last visit here was decided in the final seconds, as the Broncos kept the driving Cougars out of the end zone. In what figures to be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State UNDER 50 | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ State/SD State UNDER the total. The UNDER is 5-1 the past six meetings in this series, 2-0 the past two seasons. Those games both had O/U lines of 45.5 yet finished with 29 and 44 points, respectively. We're working with a higher number this evening and I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Yes, SJ State has been throwing the ball well. Yes, both offenses are capable; the reason for the higher O/U number. However, the Aztecs bring an extremely stingy defense to the table. They've allowed seven points and six points. Thats partly due to the opponents they've faced but not entirely. The 200 yards that they're allowing per game ranks #1 in the nation. While I expect the Spartans to have trouble scoring, they have played relatively well on the defensive side of the ball. They're allowing 13.5 ppg. SJ State has scored just 23 points combined, its last three visits here. All three games stayed below the total. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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11-06-20 | Miami-FL v. NC State +11 | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NC STATE. Both teams had last week off. That figures to help the Wolfpack more, as they were dealing with some injuries and the extra time allowed them to get healthier. Also, NC State has been better off a bye than the Hurricanes have. In fact, if including the extra time before a bowl, the Canes are 0-7 since Sept. 2017 when coming off a bye. Miami receiver Mike Harley had this to say: ''Yes, the records are there: we always lose after a bye week.'' While the Canes do have the better athletes, I don't feel that the gap between the teams is as wide as the double-digit spread suggests. Not for a game here at Raleigh. The Pack are already 2-0 here, most recently recording a double-digit win over Duke. They've won 16 of their last 20 here and are going to be fully fired up to host a big name team. Miami coach Manny Diaz had this to say about NC State: "They've always been challenging. Their entire program. They're a very strong program, they're a very tough program. You can just see when they hit people. On contact, people go backwards.'' Grab the points. |
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11-05-20 | Wyoming -170 v. Colorado State | 24-34 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing WYOMING on the moneyline. The Cowboys have won four straight in the series. Three of those victories came by double-digits, the other was by a field goal. I expect Wyoming to make it five straight tonight. One can't ignore the fact that the Cowboys were much better than the Rams last week. The Cowboys dominated Hawaii by a 31-7 score. They controlled possession and limited the Warriors to 231 total yards. The Rams, on the other hand, lost 38-17 against Fresno State. They're dealing with a lot of issues and its likely to take some time to work them out. Wyoming is 12-2 SU the past couple of seasons, when listed as an ATS favorite. During the same span, the Rams were 3-15 SU as underdogs. Cowboys win. |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 51 | Top | 34-17 | Push | 0 | 60 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on GB/SF UNDER the total. The last 10 meetings between these teams have all had O/U lines in the 40s. This one is higher than any of them and I believe that it'll prove to be too high. While they've got numerous injuries on both sides of the ball, the 49ers remain a team which wants to play stingy defense and pound the ball on the ground. Facing an elite QB like Rodgers, they'll be even more inclined than normal to try and control the clock and keep him on the sidelines. The loss of Kittle is a big blow to their offense, he's their most dangerous player and arguably the top tight-end in the league. Yes, the 49ers had trouble containing Wilson last week. However, the previous week, they held the Patriots to six points. Their last home gmae ended with a score of 24-16. While the Green Bay offense can be explosive it also can be slowed. The Pack managed just 22 points last week and they're less than a month removed from a 10-point effort at Tampa. Look for this game to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting, the final combined score finishing below the generously high number. |
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11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada UNDER 56.5 | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Utah State/Nevada UNDER the total. This O/U number has climbed from its opener. While Nevada does have a dangerous offense, I feel that generously high number is providing us with excellent value. Last year's game had an O/U line of 59 and finished with just 46. Utah State isn't nearly as dangerous on offense this year though. Not yet, anyway. The Aggies are averaging only 10 points through two games, having scored 13 and seven points. Facing a Wolf Pack defense which gave up just 19 last game, the Aggies figure to have real trouble scoring once again. Nevada Coach Norvell had this to say about Utah State losing QB Jordan Love to the NFL "It's hard to lose a quarterback of that caliber and play with the same type of productivity. It's difficult to replace a player that good." Love's replacement, Jason Shelley is just 27 of 48 with more INTs than TDs. As for Nevada, though it hasn't slowed them down yet, the Wolf Pack are without senior WR Elijah Cooks. Though they are strong through the air, I expect the Pack to get a lead and to lean on the run game, helping to chew up the clock and keeping the final combined score below the fairly big number. |
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11-04-20 | Ohio v. Central Michigan UNDER 60 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 35 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Ohio/Central Michigan UNDER the total. We typically think of MAC games as being high-scoring. Many of them are. However, recent games between these teams have not been. In fact, the last four meetings have all finished with less than 50 combined points. Both teams ranked in the top half of the MAC last year, in terms of total defense. This year, both teams returned more production on the defensive side of the ball. Both defenses returned most of their tacklers from last year. Both offenses are breaking in new QB's. That said and with this being the first game of the season, some early offensive rust won't surprise. All things considered, this number is generously high. |
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11-04-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Kent State -6 | 23-27 | Loss | -109 | 57 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Golden Flashes got off to a slow start last season, in what looked to be a rebuilding year. With a month to go, they were 3-6 and about to fall to 3-7. They avoided that seventh loss though, thanks to a big fourth quarter rally against Buffalo. I had a big play on the underdog Flashes in that one; they scored 24 in the final eight minutes to win 30-27! Momentum in their corner, that was followed by wins over Ball State and these same Eastern Michigan Eagles, which led to a 6-6 record and a date in the Frisco Bowl. Once there, they beat Utah State by double-digits. Naturally, there's pleny of excitement and optimism surrounding this year's team. Sean Lewis, now in his third year, has his best team yet. Note that the Flashes are 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) as favorites under Lewis. QB Dustin Crum, last year's leader, is back and he's got his leading receiver. The Eagles arguably lost much more. Crum was 17 of 23 in last year's game, while also adding more than 50 yards with his feet. While the road team has had some recent success in the series, expect the home team to come away with the win and cover in this one. |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +11 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 176 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on NYG. I like how this one sets up for the Giants. While they came up short, the Giants played well (and covered) against the Eagles. They easily could have won that game. Now, they play with extra rest - another Nationally televised game with a chance to show the world that they're not as bad as their record suggests. Also, remember, with the NFC East having such a down year, the Giants are still very much alive in the race for the division. That said, they really need this one. The Bucs, on the other hand, are off a big game at Vegas. Before that, Brady had the 1-on-1 showdown vs. Rodgers and the Packers. Next up, he's got a date with Brees and the Saints. That said, it may be natural for the Bucs to have a slight letdown and/or already be looking past the lowly Giants. The Giants have now seen three straight games decided by three or fewer points and each of their past four games has been decided by single digits. While I respect the Bucs, I believe they're getting a bit over-valued and I'm grabbing the points with what I expect to be a highly motivated home underdog. |
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11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 42.5 | Top | 9-23 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Philly OVER the total. I've actually won with the 'under' in each of Dallas' last two games, against Arizona and Washington. However, those O/U lines were both considerably higher than this one. Now, with Dalton expected to be out, this O/U line has gone even lower than it opened at. I believe its too low. While Dalton was expected to be a quality backup, the offense wasn't working with him running it. So, DiNucci can't possibly be worse. In fact, given the weapons he's got at his disposal, I expect him to be better. Indeed, the Eagles allow 28 ppg and Dallas will score points. On the other side of the ball, however, is where the Cowboys' real problems are. The defense is giving up big yards and big points. They can't stop the run OR the pass. They're allowing a whopping 34.7 ppg. Needless to say, the Eagles are licking their chops. They're not about to show a hated rival any mercy, either. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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11-01-20 | Saints v. Bears +4.5 | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. Everyone is suddenly down on Chicago. Yes, the Bears are dealing with a few injuries. But which team isn't? I actually successfully played against the Bears in their last game. However, that was at LA, against a talented and angry Rams team. While the Saints are also tough, the Bears are now back home. I now feel that they're the team offering value. I backed them in their last game here and they rewarded me with a 1-point win over Brady and the Bucs. Speaking of close games, New Orleans has been winning. But not by much. Only one of the Saints' past five games resulted in a win by more than three points and that came by just six. Expect another close one and grab the points. |
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11-01-20 | 49ers v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 104 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on SEATTLE. Despite still dealing with major injuries, the 49'ers have managed to win big, each of the past two weeks. However, this week, they're at the wrong place, at the wrong time. After blowing last week's game at Arizona, Wilson and the Seahawks are going to be in an angry mood. Note that Seattle is 5-1 SU And 3-1-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a division loss. The 49ers, 4-9-1 ATS their past 14 divisional games, played on the East Coast last week and are now playing the second of b2b road games. With an O/U line in the 50s, note that SF is 3-6 ATS its last nine, when the O/U line was 49.5 or greater. During that span, Seattle was 7-2 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. While both teams are very well-coached, Wilson has been playing at a different level this season. Off a loss, he'll bounce back and make the difference. |
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11-01-20 | Steelers v. Ravens -180 | 28-24 | Loss | -180 | 101 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing BALTIMORE on the ML. Naturally, I respect the Steelers. They're consistently a well-coached quality team. This season, they're playing well on both sides of the ball. I successfully backed the Steelers in their first game (vs. Giants) of the season and they've just kept winning, ever since. Until now. While I did play against the Ravens when they faced the Chiefs, this is a team which takes care of business, against everyone else. Having been humiliated by Mahomes and co, the Ravens are going to view this game at a chance for some redemption. A chance to beat an elite, undefeated, opponent. Of course, there are all the division implications, as well, making this a huge game. Playing with an extra week of rest and playing at home, I see the Ravens finding a way. Like the Steelers, this is a high quality and well-coached team, one which is capable of dominating on both sides of the ball. The Ravens are 2-0 SU the past couple of seasons and 20-7 SU over the years, when playing with an extra week's worth of rest. During that span, they were 40-14 SU when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range, 6-1 SU the past seven in that role. The Steelers, meanwhile, are 1-3 SU the past four times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. Ravens win. |
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10-31-20 | San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 44 | Top | 38-7 | Loss | -115 | 87 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on SDSU/Utah State UNDER the total. At first glance, this O/U number may look a little low. However, with both teams expected to chew up the clock with frequent running plays, I'm expecting a low-scoring affair and feel that the number could easily be even lower. I won with the 'under' in last week's SDSU game. The Aztecs were stingy defensively, as I expected. They held the Rebels to just six points and 186 yards. UNLV had just 25 yards (and 0 points) at halftime! Part of that dominant performance stemmed from the fact that UNLV was very young and outmatched. However, it was also due to the fact that the Aztecs defense is really good. I expect the Aggies, who managed only 13 points and 203 yards in their opener, to also have trouble scoring against them. On offense, the Aztecs typically don't do anything too fancy. They ran the ball 46 times last week. In last week's analysis I noted the following: "...The Aztecs have more talent on offense but they've also got a new offensive coordinator. QB Carson Baker noted that he wasn't going to try and do too much out of the gate: 'I'm just going to be a distributor this year' ..." To their credit, the Aggies also kept running the ball last week. They had 43 rushing attempts. Look for yards and points to be tough to come by, the final combined score proving lower than many will be expecting. |