Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-31-20 | Texas +3.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 126 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. The Cowboys are favored because they are at home and because have the higher ranking. However, I don't believe that they're the better team. Indeed, the Cowboys haven't faced a team with the talent that Texas has. If the Longhorns want any hope of keeping open a chance at the Big 12 title, they absolutely need to win this game. The Longhorns, though loaded with talent, had to learn new systems this year. They've had a chance to do so now though and I really liked the way that they put the early struggles behind them and took care of business against Baylor. Coach Herman had this to say after the Baylor win: "... I'm really proud of our guys for accomplishing a lot of the things that we had set out to accomplish. Heading into the bye week and to go out there and execute them in a game was important for us and our growth and in our development ... and really happy and proud that we got a opportunity to win at home and thank our fans, both here in the stadium and all across the world. And, you know, stayed relatively healthy....we made a lot of strides in that bye week leading up to Baylor. And, you know, I expect to to continue on our trajectory north of improvement and development and hopefully give Oklahoma State our best shot. And if we give them our best shot and we don't beat ourselves much like we did not beat ourselves on Saturday against Baylor, then we'll have a chance to get a big time win..." While the Cowboys eked out a 3-point win last week, they're just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times that they were favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 point range. Speaking of close games, Texas won by six when these teams met last season after the Cowboys and the previous two meetings had both been decided by a field goal. Grab the points. |
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10-31-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +4 | 51-0 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GEORGIA STATE. While the Chanticleers have gotten off to a great start, I expect them to have their hands full on Saturday afternoon. The Panthers are an opponent which can absolutely trade points with them. While Coastal Carolina averages 38 ppg, Georgia State averages 42. With the exception of a 49-29 blowout win over ECU, all Georgia State's games have been close. I like the way that the Panthers found a way to win (39-37) against Troy last week. The Panthers are going to be absolutely fired up. This is a chance to defeat a ranked opponent. The Panthers have seen the video of Coastal Carolina, which has been going viral, celebrating after last week's win - and they do NOT intend to be another victim. Georgia State brought back a lot of starters from the team which won 31-21, at Coastal Carolina, last season. The previous season, the game here was decided by just three. Expect AT LEAST a cover from the upset-minded home underdog. |
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10-30-20 | Hawaii v. Wyoming UNDER 60 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Hawaii/Wyoming UNDER the total. These teams combined for just 30 points in their last meeting. Their previous game also produced less than 50. Not surprisingly, both those games stayed below the number. On a chilly night in Laramie, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. In winning its opener, Hawaii played stingy defense and ran the ball frequently. Senior defensive back Eugene Ford, who had two INTs, noted: "All the credit goes to my defensive) line. Them boys were getting after that quarterback... all the credit goes to them, but it felt good." Overall, the Hawaii D had four takeaways. On the other side, dealing with the conditions and having missed some practice time, Hawaii figures to keep it fairly. Likewise with Wyoming, which lost its starting QB to a broken leg last week. While the final numbers didn't look good (37-34 OT loss) the Wyoming defense did have eight tackles for a loss (3 sacks) last week. All things considered, I feel this number is generously high and I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-29-20 | Falcons +3 v. Panthers | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 84 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Panthers won when these teams played earlier. In what figures to be a close game, I like getting points with revenge-minded Atlanta in Thursday's rematch. While the Falcons may not be winning, they're sure not quitting. They lost their last game by a single point, after beating Minnesota by a 40-23 score the previous week. Five of their six losses came by a TD or less, three of those came by just six combined points. Likewise, Carolina has also been playing close games. The Panthers lost by three last week. That marked their third straight game decided by seven or fewer points. Five of their seven games overall have been decided by a TD or less. While all the talk will be about whether or not McCaffrey will come back, Carolina's problems are on the other side of the ball. The Panthers' defense was young and thin to begin with and has now suffered several key injuries. I absolutely expect the Atlanta offense to take advantage. The Falcons won 29-3 here last season and 24-10 the season before that. I'll take the points but I expect another outright win for the visitors. |
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10-29-20 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern OVER 50.5 | 17-24 | Loss | -109 | 58 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on South Alabama/Georgia Southern OVER the total. The Eagles are favored in this matchup. However, if they're going to win, they're going to need to score. That's because the Jaguars have scored 30 or more in back-to-back games. Last week, they put up 38 against LA-Monroe. While the offense struggled to score on the road, at ranked Coastal Carolina, the Eagles scored 41 the last time they played at home. They've got a strong rushing attack which should help them move the ball with relative ease against a porous South Alabama run defense. The last meeting between these teams, here at Georgia Southern, had an O/U line of 55 and finished with 61. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 170 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. I successfully played against the Rams last week. However, that wasn't due to lack of respect for the Rams. I just really expected to see a desperate SF team and we did. The Rams are at home now and they didn't have to travel far to get here. Off a loss, they're going to be angry. The Bears, on the other hand, are playing their second straight on the road. Off b2b wins, they may be slightly complacent. Regardless, this is not an easy place to play. The Rams have won both their games here this season and are 15-4 (SU) their last 19 here. Eight of their last nine victories here have come by a minimum of seven points. Having just been embarrassed on National TV, this is an immediate opportunity for them to make amends and show the world that they're better than that. I believe that they are. The Rams are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS their last five, as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Expect them to make a statement, in improving on those numbers on Monday night. |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 55 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 47 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing Seattle/Arizona OVER the total. I won with the 'under' when Arizona last played. Yes, the Cardinal defense played well. However, that was against a Cowboy team playing its first game without Prescott. Now, the Cards face Russell Wilson and the high-flying Seahawks, a team which will score far more points against them than Dallas did. The Seahawks managed "only" 27 points last game. It was the first time that they hadn't cracked the 30 mark. They average a whopping 33.8 ppg, the #1 mark in the NFL. However, the 27 ppg which the Hawks allow ranks them just 19th. While the Arizona defense is good, the New England defense is considered pretty good, too. Yet, Seattle put 35 up against the Pats. Unable to stop Wilson and co, the Cards will need Murray and the offense to make things happen, in order to keep pace. Given that Arizona scored 38 last week and the fact that Seattle has allowed a minimum of 23 in every game, I believe that'll happen. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
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10-25-20 | 49ers v. Patriots -2 | Top | 33-6 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. I backed the 49'ers in their win last week, vs. LA. They played an inspired game and knocked off a strong Rams team. Still, lets not forget that their previous game resulted in a 43-17 loss against Miami. While the 49'ers have some key pieces back, this is still a team which is decimated by injuries. Traveling across the country to take on a hostile Patriots team, those injuries will catch up with them. The Pats weren't able to practice properly due to Covid-related issues and that was clearly one of the factors that led to their loss against Denver. Their previous game had resulted in a loss to KC. So, off b2b losses, don't expect them to show their banged-up guests any sympathy. Note that New England is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, off b2b losses. Even with this season's setbacks, the Pats are also still 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS their last 10 October games. This is typically been their time of year and they aren't about to lose three in a row. Not with their former QB (Brady) coming off such a huge game and not with another former QB (Jimmy G) coming to town. Indeed, Belichick is going to be extremely motivated to win this one and he'll make sure that his team feels the same way. While I respect the 49ers, they're at the wrong place, at the wrong time. |
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10-25-20 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team UNDER 48 | 3-25 | Win | 100 | 122 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Dallas/Washington UNDER the total. You may have seen the Cowboy offense struggle against Arizona. Everyone expect a bit of a drop-off from Prescott to Dalton, but the Dallas offense dropped off a cliff. The reality is that Dalton isn't as bad as he looked. His team surely didn't help him. However, he's also not going to immediatley play the way that Prescott was, as he was playing at an elite level. With the offense having struggled so badly and the offensive line in shambles, I expect a more conservative approach then normal for this big divisional battle. By that, I mean lots of running plays and very short passes. Washington will be bringing pressure and Dalton was vulnerable to that against Arizona. Remember, the NFC East is still there for the taking. Yes, the Dallas secondary has proven vulnerable. However, Washington ranks 28th in the NFL in terms of passing yards, 30th in passing yards per attempt. In other words, Washington isn't built to take advantage of the Cowboys' weakness. Of course, the Cowboys haven't been too good at stopping the run either. However, that is an area which the Football Team will try and exploit. I expect them to employ a heavy dose of the run. Washington comes off a 20-19 game, the fifth game in a row it scored 20 or fewer points. With both teams employing a heavy dose of the run, expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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10-24-20 | UNLV v. San Diego State UNDER 51 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV/SDSU UNDER the total. This number came up a bit from where it was earlier in the week; I believe we're getting excellent value. UNLV is learning a new offense and is likely going to have trouble scoring. The Aztecs have more talent on offense but they've also got a new offensive coordinator. QB Carson Baker noted that he wasn't going to try and do too much out of the gate: "I'm just going to be a distributor this year ..." The UNDER is 7-2 the last nine meetings between these teams, a perfect 4-0 the past four seasons. Last year's game had an O/U line of 44.5 but finished with a score of 20-17. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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10-24-20 | Maryland v. Northwestern -10.5 | Top | 3-43 | Win | 100 | 81 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHWESTERN. Maryland has a recent history of winning its season opener. That changes in a big way on Saturday. Indeed, there's a significant difference in experience between these teams. Northwestern brought most of its team back. Maryland did not. As if things weren't bad enough for the Terps, QB Josh Jackson opted out, along with a handful of others. Jackson was one of six players who chose not to play due to pandemic-related issues. Not good for a team which was already lacking depth and experience. The Wildcats are stingy defensively and their veteran defensive unit is going to be tough to score on. Last year, this unit ranked 25th in the country in total defense. On the other side of the ball, new coordinator Mike Bajakian will have the offense playing with more pace and we should see an improvement on that side of the ball. These teams last met in 2017. The Wildcats won by 16. Expect another double-digit victory for the more experienced Wilcats Saturday. |
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10-24-20 | Tulane v. Central Florida -19.5 | 34-51 | Loss | -103 | 56 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCF. I won with the Green Wave in their last game, a cover vs. SMU. However, this week, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Knights come off b2b losses, something they aren't used to. They're going to be in an angry mood and they'll be looking to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. That's going to result in a long day for Tulane's porous defense. Indeed, UCF throws for an average of 439 yards per game, the most passing yards in the entire country. Tulane, meanwhile, allows 307.8 passing yards per game, the 123rd (out of 131) worst mark in the country. UCF won 37-6 the last time that Tulane visited here. While this one figures to have more points, it will result in another one-sided affair. |
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10-24-20 | Nebraska v. Ohio State UNDER 68.5 | 17-52 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Nebraska/OSU UNDER the total. This total has climbed from its opener. I feel that the number is generously high. Yes, the Huskers have a fairly experienced offense. However, that same offense couldn't move the ball against OSU Last year's game between these teams saw the Buckeyes win 48-7. That was at Nebraska, a game which had been highly anticipated as a possible test for the Big Ten champs. Instead, it marked the third time in four meetings that Nebraska scored 14 or fewer points. The Buckeyes pounded the ball on the ground (368 rushing yards) while playing great defense. They'll be looking to employ a similar strategy here. With both teams playing their first game, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. |
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10-24-20 | Florida State v. Louisville -179 | 16-48 | Win | 100 | 54 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing LOUISVILLE on the money-line. The Cardinals badly need a victory and I believe that the Seminoles are the right opponent for them to get one against. Yes, Louisville has dropped four straight. However, the last three of those came on the road. The Cardinals are finally back home and they'll be facing an FSU team which has really struggled on the road. In two road games, the Seminoles have allowed 94 points, losing by an average score of 47-18. The Noles are now just 2-10 their last 12 road games. While I do like the Cardinals to cover, I absolutely expect the outright victory. Lousville is 8-2 SU the past 10 times it was favored. During that span, FSU is 3-11 SU as an underdog. That includes an 0-3 SU mark as underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. While the Noles won last week, they're just 2-5 (SU and ATS) the past couple of seasons, off a conf. win. The Cards just held ND to 12 points, the same Irish team which dropped 42 on FSU the previous week. Louisville wins. |
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10-23-20 | Tulsa v. South Florida +11 | 42-13 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on USF. Tulsa hasn't played in a few weeks. The extra long layoff may bring some rust. The Bulls haven't been winning but they've continued to fight. They gave Temple everything that the Owls could handle last week. While the Bulls ultimately suffered a 39-37 defeat, they showed a lot. South Florida coach Jeff Scott agreed, noting the following: "I was so proud of our guys and how they played at Temple. We came in 1-3, we're on the road and a 13-point underdog and we had put everything into it all week long, and then before you even look up you're behind 10-0 with eight minutes to go in the first quarter. If you pause that and you let that play at a lot of different places, it's a 45-3 game at the end. But our guys continued to play all game long and even after our three turnovers, which really put us in a bad, bad spot, the same offense that put the ball on the ground three times drove it all the way down the field to give us a chance to tie at the end of the game ..." Scott continued with: "The easy thing to do is say 'Here we go again' and all that, but I haven't really seen that from our guys. They're a good group that made some huge strides Saturday..." While Tulsa seems to have UCF's number, the Golden Hurricane are still just 8-18 overall the past few seasons. The last meeting between these teams was decided by a single point. In fact, all three meetings since 2014 were decided by eight or fewer points, USF winning all three. Grab the generous points. |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45 | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 80 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Philly UNDER the total. While they had trouble slowing down Baltimore, I expect the Eagles to have considerably more success in doing so against the offensively challenged Giants. Given the state of the NFC East, this is a big game. The Giants won with defense last week, beating Washington by a 20-17 score. It marked the fifth time, through six games, that they scored 20 or fewer points. In fact, their 101 total points scored is the lowest in the NFC and second lowest (Jets are worse) in the entire NFL, among teams which have played six games. (Broncos have scored 100 in five games.) The last two meetings between these teams, here at Philadelphia, have both stayed below the total. Last season's game here had an O/U line of 45 and finished with 40, a 23-17 win for the Eagles. That one went to OT; just 34 points were scored in regulation. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -10 | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 79 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. I won with the Red Wolves last week. However, Appalachian State is in a much different class than Georgia State. The Mountaineers were shut down due to contact tracing for awhile but they're back and good to go. Playing their first conference game, doing so on National TV and in front of some (2100 tickets allowed) fans, they're going to be absolutely fired up to return to the field. Indeed, they'll be looking to make a statement that just because they haven't been playing, they're not to be forgotten about. While they did manage the win last week, the Red Wolves defense was dismal. The Mountaineers will absolutely put up a big number. While the Red Wolves may be able to trade points for awhile, ultimately they won't be able to keep up. Note that the Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) when off a bye. Also, note that App. State won last year's game 35-9 and that was at Arkansas State. Expect the superior team to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1 | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DALLAS. Prescott was playing at a very high level. His injury does hurt the Cowboys. That said, the Cowboy offense will still be good with Dalton running the show. The veteran is very capable and has much to work with. Remember, if Prescott was playing, the Cowboys would have been laying points. So, the injury has been worked into the line. Yes, the Murray/Hopkins combo will present some problems. However, I'm of the opinion that the Dallas defense is a bit better than most would have you believe. I like the way that the Cowboys took care of business against the Giants last game and I expect them to dig deep and find a way to earn another "W" tonight. |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 54 | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 179 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona/Dallas UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Cowboy games have flown over the total. However, Dallas is now without its starting QB and its facing an Arizona team which has been seeing its games stay below the number. Yes, the Cardinals have some dangerous offensive weapons. However, Arizona has still seen all five of its games produce 52 or fewer combined points, the UNDER going 4-0-1. While I respect Dalton, Prescott was playing at a very high level. Yes, the Cowboy offense will still be good. But, a small step back would only be natural. That means that the Cowboys will need to be better defensively. I believe that they can be. Also, a tough Arizona secondary should lead Dallas to run the ball more regularly. It all adds up to this one proving lower-scoring than the shootout which many will be expecting. |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs v. Bills +5.5 | Top | 26-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on BUFFALO for the first half. Both these teams started the season with perfect 4-0 records. Both stumbled in Week 5. Most have grown so accustomed to seeing the Chiefs win that they think that they can't possibly lose twice in a row. They can, particularly against a dangerous and highly motivated Buffalo team. The perception that the Chiefs can't possibly lose two in a row has helped create plenty of value, particularly in my opinion, for the first half. This is a huge game for the Bills. They're going to be extremely fired up and I expect them to come out flying. Grab the points for the first half and don't be surprised when Buffalo takes a lead into the locker room. |
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10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +148 | 16-24 | Win | 148 | 155 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing SF on the ML. While they've certainly had to deal with their share of adversity, I expect the defending NFC Champs to be at their best on Sunday night. While it was an otherwise ugly effort, the 49ers got their running game going in last week's loss to Miami. Averaging 6.9 yards per carry, the 49ers racked up 131 yards on the ground. The return of Mostert was key. That'll serve them well against a Rams team which, prior to the Washington game, has had serious issues stopping the run. The 49ers should have the edge in the kicking department, which could be key in what figures to be a close one. Rookie Sloman has struggled and his confidence appears shaken. Remember, the 49ers were in the Super Bowl last year. They're gradually getting their pieces back together. With a number of difficult games on deck, they know they need to bounce back here. While they're back in California, its worth noting that the Rams are playing their fourth road game in the past five weeks. In the previous instance, when they were playing the second of b2b road games, they lost. I say the 49ers bounce back |
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10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs +2.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 148 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on TAMPA. I successfully played against the Bucs in their last game, a loss at Chicago. However, I like how this one sets up much better. Last game, the Bucs were playing on the road, on a short week. They were also laying more than a field goal. This game sets up much differently. This time, the Bucs are getting points. This time, they're at home. This time, they're playing with extra rest. I also like that Brady was embarrassed in losing. He's going to be determined to bounce back with a big effort and I expect him to do exactly that. (Obviously, both QBs want to beat the other. They're 1-1 in h2h matchups, each winning on his homefield.) Both teams want it, too. Still, this game arguably means more to Brady, Arians and the Bucs. Off their only previous loss, the Bucs responded with a double-digit win. I expect them to bounce back once again, handing the Pack their first loss of the season. |
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10-17-20 | Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 58.5 | Top | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/Alabama UNDER the total. All the talk is and will be about Saban. I'm more interested in the game being played on the field. We've come to know Alabama as an elite defensive team, over the years. The Tide are more known for their offense these days though, as they've got some elite players on that side of the ball. Georgia, on the other hand, has one of the best defenses in the entire country. Alabama still has plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Tide defense is going to be very motivated, too. Both to show that Georgia isn't the only elite defense in this game and to show that they're much better than we saw last week. The Alabama offense hasn't faced a defense like this one though. Georgia coach Kirby Smart said this of his defense: "The atmosphere that's been credited on defense here is we're not letting them score." Last week, they limited Tennessee to less than one yard (-1) on the ground and 0 points, in the second half. The Bulldogs will be doing everything they can to chew up the clock when they're on offense. The last time that these teams met in October, the O/U line was 50.5 and they combined for 48. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-17-20 | Marshall v. Louisiana Tech +14 | 35-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA TECH. The Herd have gotten off to a great start. While they're clearly playing well, this is a very big number and I don't believe that they're good enough to be laying this many points here. Note that the Herd, who are playing their second straight road game, are just 7-13 ATS the last 20 times that they were favored. Entering the season, some might of thought this would be a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs. However, this is a well-coached team which is always competitive. Coming into this season, LA Tech has recorded six consecutive winning records and has earned a bowl trip each year in that span. This season, the Bulldogs are already 3-1 including a win at Southern Miss. The lone loss came at BYU. Nobody is talking about rebuilding any more. I say this one proves close. Grab the points. |
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10-17-20 | Texas A&M -195 v. Mississippi State | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing TEXAS A&M on the money-line. The Aggies upset Florida last week, scoring 41 points in the process. Mississippi State, on the other hand, managed only two points, in losing agianst Kentucky. The previous week, listed as -16.5 point favorites, the Bulldogs managed only 14 points, losing outright. Why the moneyline? Though I also expect them to cover, when the Aggies are favored, they win. Period. They won (but didn't cover) in this season's only previous time as a favorite. They've been listed as favorites 17 times in recent seasons and they won 16 of those games. This price could easily be higher and they'll improve on those stats this afternoon. |
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10-17-20 | Virginia -2.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 23-40 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. There are some early similarities between the Demon Deacons and the Cavs. Both have 1-2 SU records. Both are 2-1 ATS. These teams already have a couple of common opponents. Both have played Clemson. Both have played NC State. Each team went 0-2 in those games. Virginia's win was arugably more impressive though. The Cavs hammered Duke. Wake Forest's victory, though lopsided, was against lowly Campbell. (The Deacons were -34.5 point favorites.) So, the Deacons have yet to defeat a "real" team. While the Cavs may be without QB Brennan Armstrong, backup Lindell Stone completed 30 passes and threw three TDs last week. Coach Bronco Mendenhall noted: "Lindell did not have many practice reps at all with our offense. He was really working with our defense and helping us in that regard, and just that he came in and was effective and moved the football team, I was encouraged by that." Regardless of who is behind center, he'll be working behind an experienced offensive line and I expect the Cavs to get off to a faster start, something Mendenhall has been emphasizing. Mendehall also has an experienced and capable defense. Look for his team to emerge victorious, covering the small number along the way. |
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10-17-20 | Kentucky v. Tennessee UNDER 47.5 | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 97 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Kentucky/Tennessee UNDER the total. Entering the season, some ranked Kentucky's defense as third best in the SEC. Considering the number of strong defenses in the conference, that was saying something. While the experienced defense took a couple of weeks to get going, the Wildcats come off an outstanding defensive effort. In fact, they held Mississippi State to just two points. The Bulldogs only points came on a safety. Pretty good given that the Bulldogs entered that game with the SEC's top passing attack (468 yards per game) and the No. 2 offense (516.0). On the other side of the ball, despite the score, the Kentucky offense was pretty dismal. In fact, Kentucky managed a mere 157 yards of offense. While they struggled at Georgia, the Vols limited Missouri to a mere 12 points in their lone home game. Last year's meeting produced 30 combined points. The year before saw just 31 points scored. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston UNDER 62.5 | Top | 43-26 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU/Houston UNDER the total. With all due respect to the offenses, I believe this number will prove to be too high. While the BYU Cougars have been putting up a lot of points, they've also been very stingy defensively. In fact, they're only allowing an average of 11 points per game. None of their opponents have scored more than 20. The Cougars have only played one game. Though they did give up a lot of points, they actually only allowed 211 total yards. Indeed, Tulane scored two early defensive TD's which changed the outcome of the game and made Houston's points allowed look worse. The last meeting between these schools had an O/U line of 62.5 but finished with 57. I believe both defenses are better than they're being given credit for and I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-16-20 | SMU v. Tulane +7 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TULANE. I like how this one sets up for the Green Wave. Note that Tulane is 8-4 ATS its last 12 home lined games. Also, off its loss against Houston, note that the Green Wave are 6-3 ATS their last nine, when off a conference loss. SMU is just 2-5 ATS the past seven times it was a road favorite. Also, off their 30-27 win against Memphis, note that the Mustangs are just 2-8 ATS their last 10, when off a conference victory. Speaking of 3-point games, three of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by four point or less. Also, Tulane has already seen two of its games, including its lone home game, decided by just a field goal. Expect another close one and grab the points. |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -149 | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE on the money-line. Both the pointspread and the money-line have dropped since they came out. I like the value that the reduced money-line price offers. The home team has enjoyed success in this series of late. Last October, the Panthers won 52-38 on their home field. The previous October, it was the Red Wolves winning 51-35 here at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas. This will mark the Panthers' first road game of the season. So, they've had to experience some of the new travel challenges for the first time. Remember, this is a team which is just 2-10 SU in road lined games the past couple of years. During the same span, Arkansas State was 10-3 SU in home games. While both teams have shown that they can put points on the board, I feel that the Red Wolves' QB Bonner will have the bigger day. His favorite target, Jonathan Adams Jr. already has five TD catches (26 receptions, 342 yards) and ranks among the most dangerous in the conference. The Red Wolves started the season with three straight on the road. Playing at Memphis and Kansas State right out of the gate was tough but they managed to go 1-1 SU (2-0 ATS) in those games, winning outright at K-State. They had to deal with some cancelled games after that and a reduced roster for the loss at Coastal Carolina. However, they got most back for last week's home opener, a 50-27 thrashing of Central Arkansas. Expect homefield to again prove significant. |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette -6.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -124 | 56 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UL-LAFAYETTE. This game got postponed and these teams had agreed to play in Conway, SC, if the game couldn't be played here at Cajun Field, due to damage caused by Hurricane Delta. They're finally good to go here though, which I expect to benefit the now #21 ranked Ragin' Cajuns. They'll 5000+ fans and this will be the first game at this stadium in which they'll be selling alchohol. While both teams are 3-0, the Cajuns' record included a 31-14 win at Iowa State, a far more impressive feat than anything accomplished by the Chanticleers. Last year's game wasn't even close. The Cajuns won 48-7. Levi Lewis, who became the first Cajun to throw for more than 3000 yards last season, threw three TD passes and ran one in for another. Overall, he'd finish the seaon with 26 TD's against just four INTs, completing more than 64% of his passes. He's off to another great start this season, too. While Lewis isn't a big QB, expect him to have another big game, en route to a win and cover. |
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10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans +3.5 | 16-42 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Titans are getting points here, in part due to the fact that they're down some players and practice time, having been dealing with being shutdown from the virus. Obviously, that's not ideal. That said, I believe that the Titans to be able to overcome it and I expect them to be good to go. Buffalo has gotten off to a great start but I believe that this will prove to be a tough spot. The Bills started the season with b2b divisional games. Next, they played a game against the Rams, when both teams were undefeated at the time. Last time out, they played in the new stadium, at Vegas. Next up, they host the world champion Chiefs, on Monday night. If that's not a reason to "look ahead," there isn't one. Having played all those "big" games and with the champs on deck, even though the Titans are 3-0 themselves, I believe it's going to be a little hard for the Bills to "get up" for a Tuesday game, at Tennessee. Note that the Bills are dealing with some key injuries themselves and that they're giving up 25 ppg. The Titans are going to be extremely fired up to get back on the field, as this is absolutely a "big game" for them. Note that they're 8-4 ATS their last 12, as underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. Tennessee safety Byard had this to say: "At the end of the day, we’re not going to make any excuses man. We're going to come in here and focus on what we need to focus on, and that's winning the ballgame." I expect that to be the case and I'm grabbing the points. |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints -7 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. The Saints have a lot going for them, in my opinion. In addition to being very tough to beat at home, they're arguably better on both sides of the ball. Sean Payton gives them an edge in the coaching department. They're still very much alive in the playoff race. The Chargers are not. Of course, there's also a little score to settle. This will likely be the last time that Brees gets to face the Chargers. It may seem like he's been a Saint forever but it was the Chargers who drafted him and then essentially let him go. Brees recently noted: "When I was drafted by the Chargers back in ’01, it was my hope, my plan, to be the franchise quarterback there for my whole career." Note that Brees and the Saints are a perfect 3-0 against the Chargers. While he won't have Thomas to throw to, I say that Brees continues to haunt his old team one final time, the Saints picking up the cover along the way. |
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10-11-20 | Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 57 | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Minnesota/Seattle UNDER the total for the 1st Half. With all due respect to the Seattle offense, I feel that this number is a little high. While the Vikings have struggled defensively, they were better on that side of the ball last game. With the league's leading rusher (Cook) heading their offense, they'll be doing everything they can to sustain long drives and keep Wilson and the Seahawks offense on the sidelines. Yes, these teams did play a high-scoring game (37-30) against each other last December. However, a closer look shows that "only" 27 of those points came in the first half, 40 in the second. They'd also played a few times in recent previous seasons and those games had final scores of 21-7, 10-9 and 38-7. Look for this one to start a little more slowly than many will be expecting, the final combined halftime score staying beneath the generous number. |
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10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons -130 | 23-16 | Loss | -130 | 102 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. (ML) I believe that a date with Carolina will be just what the doctor ordered for the desperate winless Falcons. Off b2b wins, the Panthers have proven that they aren't to be taken lightly. Even without McCaffrey. Still, they represent the weakest team which the Falcons have faced, a significant step down in class. Previous games have come against the Bears, who were undefeated at the time, the Seahawks and Packers, who are still undefeated and the Cowboys. Thats a very tough first four games. Yet, the Falcons easily could have been 3-1, or at least 2-2. True, the Falcons are off a Monday night game. However, I like that they're at home and they've fared well (1-0 SU/ATS last couple of years and 15-10 SU / 16-7-2 ATS L25) when off a Monday night game. This is a team they can handle and they will. Expect them to find a way to pick up that elusive first "W." |
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10-11-20 | Raiders +13 v. Chiefs | 40-32 | Win | 100 | 74 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LAS VEGAS. Obviously, the Chiefs are really good. They've had their way with the Raiders and the rest of the AFC West, too. That said, I like how this one sets up for the Raiders. The Raiders know that the Chiefs are 4-0. The other teams in the division are both 1-3. Sitting at 2-2 themselves, the Raiders know that they need a win here, or the Chiefs are going to leave them in their dust. While the Chargers and Broncos have only scored 82 and 83 points, respectively, the Raiders have scored 111. Thats not far at all behind Kansas City's 117. Indeed, the Raiders are one of the few teams in the league which may be able to trade points with the champs. They've scored at least 20 in every game, averaging 27.8. The Chiefs are off b2b Monday Night games and they've got a Thursday game on deck. Grab the generous points and don't be surprised when they have their hands full against what is going to be a very determined Raider team. |
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10-11-20 | Eagles +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 29-38 | Loss | -118 | 123 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Eagles earned a hard-fought win at SF, their first victory of the season. While the Steelers represent a different type of challenge, monkey off their back, I expect the Eagles to carry the positive momentum forward. Just like that, the Eagles are in first place in the NFC East. Really, they're a better team than their record indicates. Due to that record, the Eagles find themselves as a similar sized underdog as last week, a role they thrived in. Its also a lot of points to ask the Steelers to win by. Consider that Philadelphia's last two games have been decided by a combined five points and that Pittsburgh's last two games were both decided by seven points or less. The Steelers have been nothing special (16-22 ATS) over the years, when coming off a bye. While they haven't met since 2016, the Eagles have won two of the last three meetings between these instate rivals and the lone loss (16-14 in 2012) was by just two points. Grab the points and expect another close one. |
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10-10-20 | Miami-FL v. Clemson -14.5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 123 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers have won by "only" 24, 49 and 18 points. Thats led to a poor start at the betting window and some to question how good this year's team is. I expect a visit from Miami to "get them going." The Canes are their toughest test yet, which is why the Tigers aren't favored by quite as much as they were in previous games. Note that they're 6-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 point range. During that span, they've gone 6-1 ATS in October, 14-4 ATS against winning teams and 15-5 ATS in conference play overall. The Canes are off a bye but that hasn't too helpful in recent seasons. They're 0-5 SU/ATS the past five times that they were in that situation. During that span, Miami was 4-9 ATS against teams with a winning record. While the Canes have indeed looked good, Clemson is the first winning team which Miami has faced this season. While Miami does have some great athletes, Clemson is still better on both sides of the ball. Expect the Tigers to silence their critics while providing Miami with a rude reality check. |
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10-10-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Florida International OVER 56.5 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MTSU/FIU OVER the total. Both teams are coming in hungry for their first win. Both believe that they can get it and both are going to keep fighting the entire way. Last season's game had an O/U line of 57.5 and saw 67 points scored. The Blue Raiders scored 50 of those. Including that result, since 2014, five of six meetings in the series have finished above the total. Middle Tennessee State QB Asher O'hara has enjoyed success against the Panthers in the past, particularly burning them with his legs. Two years ago, he came in to replace an injured Brett Stockstill. He rushed for 85 yards and a TD. Then, in last season's romp, he rushed for 159 yards and two TDs. He shold be poised for another fairly big game against an FIU team which allowed 36 points and more than 500 yards in its lone game. Note that the Liberty QB did whatever he wanted to them, both through the air and on the ground. Yet, the Panthers are favored for a reason. They scored 34 in their lone game and are coming in hungry to avenge last year's embarrassing loss. Expect both teams to move the ball and score plenty of points in this one, the final combined score finishing above the total for the sixth time in the past seven seasons. |
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10-10-20 | NC State v. Virginia UNDER 63.5 | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 74 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NC State/UVA UNDER the total. I believe that this number is generously high. True, the Wolfpack have been involved in some shootouts, which has led to this high number. A game against Virginia figures to be different; I expect a heavy dose of the run from the Cavs, who are averaging a healthy 167.5 yards on the ground, to help keep the clock moving. These teams have met five times since 2006, most recently in 2018. Those five games had combined scores of 56, 39, 42, 53 and 21. None of the O/U lines were anywhere close to as high as this one. The Cavs saw last week's game finish with 64 points. However, that was against a powerful Clemson team which put up 41. The Wolfpack saw last week's game finish over the total. However, that was with a much lower O/U line. That one still finished with less than 60 points and would have fallen below this higher number. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than expected, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. |
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10-09-20 | Louisville -4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 27-46 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Both teams will be anxious to get back on track here. The Cardinals are more talented on both sides of the ball; I expect them to be the team which does so. In addition to giving up fewer points per game, the Cardinals average 29.7 ppg on offense, while GT averages just 19.3. After back-to-back games in the underdog role, Louisville finds itself favored again. The only previous time that the Cardinals were favored, they took care of business agianst Western Kentucky, a 35-21 win on 9/12. Meanwhile, this isn't a good look for the Yellow-Jackets. They're 0-5 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range, most recently losing by 28 (49-21 on 9/19) in that role earlier this season. Before slowing down at Pittsburgh, the Cardinals had racked up more than 500 yards against Miami. I expect them to have a big day against this defense and don't feel that the Jackets will be able to keep up. |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears +6 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. While I succesfully played against the Bears on Sunday, I like their chances of bouncing back Thursday night. Last week, the Bears were dealing with a Colts defense which ranks #1 in the league in points allowed and #1 in the league in terms of yards allowed. The Bucs haven't been as stingy. While the Colts allow 14 ppg, the Bucs allow 23. The Bears, themselves, allow just 20.3. I like that the Bears are playing at home for the second straight week. Even if the distance isn't that great, traveling while playing on a short week, in 2020, is less than ideal. Prior to Sunday's loss, the Bears had seen all three of their games decided by less than five points. Don't be surprised when this one also comes down to the wire, the Bears with an excellent shot at the outright win. |
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10-08-20 | Tulane v. Houston UNDER 60 | 31-49 | Loss | -114 | 30 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Houston/Tulane UNDER the total. Here's an excerpt of what I said prior to last year's game: "The Green Wave have a lot going for them here. They're off an absolute blowout (58-6) of Missouri State. That lopsided game allowed them to rest starters in the second half, preparing for this one. It was also at home, meaning no travel for the short week. On the other hand, Houston is off an emotional and hard-fought loss against Washington State. The Cougars left it all on the field for that one and may well experience a letdown because of. Note that they're 4-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, off an ATS cover, 0-1 ATS when off an ATS cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. Tulane is 9-4 ATS over the years, off a home blowout win of 28 or more. The home team has had the advantage in this series of late. Expect that to be the case again this evening..." Tulane ended up rallying for a 38-31 win. That was enough to send that game over the posted total. This year, we're working with a slightly higher O/U number but I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair. Yes, Tulane has shown an ability to score. The Green Wave have a couple of future NFL players on defense though and figure to be improved on that side of the ball. Likewise for the Cougars. Dana Holgorsen brought in transfers on defense that will make them better on that side of the ball. Meanwhile, having not played a real game yet, the Cougar offense could be a little rusty out of the gate. Look for it to all add up to a much lower-scoring game than we saw last season. |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers UNDER 57.5 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 123 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Atlanta/GB UNDER the total. With all due respect to Rodgers and co, I believe this number is simply too high. Yes, GB has put up some very big numbers. Yes, the Falcons have been on the wrong side of some crazy comebacks, which has led to some high scores. Thats not going to keep happening though; they may never have a lead to blow in this one in the first place. Either way, those high scores and the high scores in the league in general, have worked in our favor, driving this O/U line up higher than it would have been, if these teams had met a few weeks ago. (The last time these teams met, the O/U line was 50.5 and they combined for 54.) Obviously, the Packer offense has been functioning at a high level. GB is going to be anxious to get the defense performing better though and I believe that's going to be a priority this week. Kingsley Keke has emerged in his absence but the Pack hope to get Kenny Clark back this week and he's huge for their defense. Either way, I see the Packers defense improving this week. Of course, the Falcons will be doing everything in their power to keep Rodgers and co. on the sidelines. They'll get some points. Just not enough to finish above this generously high number. Go Under. |
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10-05-20 | Patriots +11.5 v. Chiefs | 10-26 | Loss | -116 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. With Cam Newton out, we're getting a handful of extra points with the Pats. While I obviously respect the champs, I feel thats providing us with excellent value on the visitors. Hoyer is expected to go instead of Newton. While the veteran can't do all the things that Newton can do, he arguably knows the Patriots system better than Newton does; he served as Brady's backup for a number of years, in separate stints. While I'm aware his recent record as a starter isn't pretty, Belichick wouldn't have kept him around if he wasn't still capable. The Pats are playing well; they're 2-1 with the lone loss coming by five, at Seattle. They haven't lost a game by more than seven points since last November. Speaking of close games, the last three meetings between these teams have all been decided by seven or less. Don't be surprised when this one also proves closer than many will be expecting. |
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10-04-20 | Eagles +7 v. 49ers | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 128 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. As you may have heard, the 49ers have been hit extremely hard by injuries. They were able to overcome those injury issues against the Giants and Jets. However, now they're facing a winless and desperate Eagle team, one which comes in badly in need of a victory. Yes, Philadelphia is also dealing with some injuries. However, those injuries aren't as bad or as numerous as SF's injuries. Keep in mind that the 49ers played without 10 starters last week. While they may have other areas of concern, the Eagles' defensive line is excellent. They were all over Burrow (8 sacks, 18 QB hits) last week and will be all over the QB again here. On the other side of the ball, turnovers have hurt. I expect them to clean that up here. The 49ers were fortunate to face the two NY teams when they did. Expect them to have their hands full Sunday night. |
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10-04-20 | Colts -155 v. Bears | 19-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing INDIANAPOLIS on the ML. A lot of people are excited about Foles starting for the Bears. He may indeed prove to be an upgrade over Trubisky, however the Colts still figure to have the advantage in this one. In case you haven't been paying attention, the Colts quietly boast the best defense in the league through three games. They've been tough against both the run and the pass and are allowing only 15 ppg and a mere 225.3 ypg. Both rank #1 in the league. While I do also like the Colts to cover the spread, its worth noting that every Chicago game has been close, which has led me to the ML. The Colts are 32-9 SU over the years, when listed as road favorites of three or less. I expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. |
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10-04-20 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team UNDER 46 | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Washington UNDER the total. After getting lit up by Mahomes and the defending champs, the Ravens are going to be anxious to get back to playing some stingy defense. Remember, they held their first two opponents to a total of just 22 points. Of course, Washington doesn't have the type of offense that KC does and should be much easier to slow down. On the other side, Washington will be happy to return home; Washington allowed only 17 points in its only home game. While facing the Ravens can be scary for a defense, note that Jackson was just 15 for 28 for 97 yards and was sacked four times last week. These teams combined for just 26 points (16-10 in 2016) the last time they met. With both defenses looking to get healthy and both offenses mixing in a healthy dose of the run, I say this "instate rivalry" also proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-03-20 | Virginia v. Clemson -28 | 23-41 | Loss | -115 | 133 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. This is obviously a mismatch. While the line may appear steep, I feel that it could easily be even higher. Keep in mind that the Tigers handed the Cavs a 62-17 loss in the ACC Championship Game last season.The Tigers had last week off. That works in their favor as they had a number of bumps and bruises and the extra time should allow a number of players time to get healthy. Also, note that Clemson is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS its last five, when coming off a bye. While the Tigers may have failed to cover vs. Wake Forest, they're still a dominant 15-4 ATS in Conference play, the past few seasons. Clemson had more than 600 yards of offense in the ACC Championship Game last season, Virginia had less than 400. Lawrence threw for more than 300 yards and four TDs. Etienne ran for 114 yards and a score. Expect another big day for the offense with the Cavs, ulimately, being unable to keep up. |
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10-03-20 | Tulsa v. Central Florida UNDER 71 | Top | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tulsa/UCF UNDER the total. The Knights come in determined to get some payback from last season's 34-31 loss. While they'll probably get their revenge, I feel that it'll come in the form of an improved defensive effort. Last season, the Golden Hurricane dropped 34 points on them. I don't expect the Knights to allow that to happen again. Consider that Tulsa has only been able to play one game and that it managed only seven points, while allowing just 16, in that one. As for the Knights, yes, they do indeed have a potent offense. They've scored 49 and 51 in their two games. I believe that Tulsa's defense is somewhat better than the two they have faced though. The Hurricane moved to a 3-3-5 scheme a couple of years ago and are much better defensively since doing so. Last season, they allowed less than 400 yards per game for the first time since 2012. This year's defense didn't return a ton of 'starters' but did return a lot of players with experience. As defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie pointed out: "I don’t know that we're quite as green as what on paper it would look like. We've got a lot of guys who got not just a little bit of playing time, but a great deal of experience on the football field." Look for the Tulsa defense to slow down the Knights just enough to keep the combined final score beneath the generously high number. |
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10-03-20 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State -121 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on K-STATE. (ML) This line came down from its opener and I believe we're now getting very fair value with the Wildcats. Importantly, I like how this game sets up for them. K-State comes off an improbable win vs. the Sooners. Many will expect a letdown, off that upset. However, thats exactly the type of a win that a college team can build positive momentum from. As K-State coach Clieman commented: "It has to be sustained. 'We need to do this for the long haul; that's the challenge we made to our guyss .... " The opposite is true of the Red Raiders. While they did earn a nice 'cover' for their backers last week, they also lost a heart-breaker to rival Texas, the type of loss which can have a deflating effect on a college team. Indeed, they were up 15 in the closing minutes but lost in OT. I say K-State carries the positive momentum into this afternoon's game and comes away with the "W." |
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10-03-20 | TCU v. Texas -13 | 33-31 | Loss | -108 | 114 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS. After rallying to beat the Red Raiders last week, scoring 63 points in the process, the Longhorns bring both momentum and confidence into Saturday's showdown with TCU. The Longhorns were down 56-41 late in the fourth last week. Texas coach Tom Herman said: 'Our quarterback looked at me and said, `They left us too much time. We're going to tie this thing up and win in overtime,'' ''And I believed him.'' Off that comeback, Texas believes it can do anything and with Oklahoma having lost last week, the Longhorns are thinking big. Indeed, this team is loaded. This is a game that the Longhorns have had circled. The Frogs beat them by 10 (at TCU) last season and have had their way with the Longhorns in recent years. Its time for some payback. Note that Texas won by 15 the last time that it was the home team in this rivalry. I expect an even bigger margin of victory here. Texas rolls. |
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10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech v. BYU -23.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 124 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU. This figures to be a one-sided blowout. The Cougars have crushed both opponents which they have faced. They beat Navy 55-3 and they beat Troy 48-7. They should be able to do the same to an LA Tech team which is essentially in rebuilding mode on defense. Yes, the Bulldogs are 2-0. However, they've given up 30 or more points in both games. Last game, Houston Baptist scored 38 against them. Indeed, BYU will have no trouble scoring. This hasn't been a kind role for the Bulldogs over the years; they're 6-14 ATS (1-19 SU) the past 20 times that they were underdogs in the 21.5 to 31.5 point range. I say the Cougars, 8-3 ATS their last 11 against CUSA opponents, put up a big number with the overmatched Bulldogs being unable to keep up. |
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10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets +3 | 37-28 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NY. After the last two primetime games featured Brees/Rodgers and Jackson/Mahomes, Thursday features a pair of winless teams in the Broncos and Jets. Obviously, both will be hungry for their first win. While the Jets have indeed been pretty bad, I feel that they're catching the Broncos at the right time. As Denver coach Vic Fangio noted: ''We have sustained a lot of injuries, there's no denying that ..." The short week doesn't figure to help a banged-up Bronco team which didn't even announcing its starting QB until Tuesday. (*Rypien eneded up getting named the starter, as expected.) Feeling the heat from their poor start, more so than their guests, Gase and the Jets are going to be desperate. Look for the injuries to take a toll on Denver, as the Jets dig deep and find a way to come away with the "W." |
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09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints UNDER 53 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GB/NO UNDER the total. Brees and Rodgers get all the headlines and the presence of the two future Hall-Of-Famers has helped lead to a very high O/U number, second highest on the Sunday board. However, I'm not anticpating the type of shootout envisioned by many. Brees is without his top receiving weapon in Thomas. It appears that Rodgers may also be without his top receiver; Adams is doubtful as of this writing. He wasn't able to practice this week, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reporting that Adams ' chances to suit up against the Saints "doesn't look great." Either way, the Saints defense is very likely better than either of the previous two defenses GB has faced and that unit will be looking to show its better than we saw against the Raiders. Both teams figure to run the ball fairly frequently, possibly more than ever due to the absence of Thomas and hopefully Adams. Look for that to help chew up the clock, keeping the final combined score beneath the generously high total. |
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09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -155 | 37-30 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing NEW ORLEANS on the ML. NFL fans are fickle. At the beginning of last week's game, everyone was referring to Brees as one of the greatest of all-time and saying that he was still at the top of his game. By the end of the night, they were calling him old and past his prime. Yes, he's getting up in years but Brees, like Rodgers, is indeed among the best of all-time. I still believe that he's got plenty of great games ahead of him. A visit from Rodgers figures to be just what the doctor ordered to "get him going." The Packers got a huge game from Jones last week. I'd still prefer Kamara though. Its on the other side of the ball where I believe that the Saints really have the advantage though. Indeed, this Saints defense is loaded with talent, arguably more so than the Green Bay defense. Throw in the fact that the game is at New Orleans and that I believe Payton to be the superior coach and I say the Saints finish on top. |
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09-27-20 | Bengals v. Eagles -5 | Top | 23-23 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Both teams are 0-2. Both will be hungry for a win. I expect the Eagles to be a little more desperate though and I believe that they bring more to the table. Obviously, Burrow and the Bengals want their first win. Expectations are pretty low in Cincinnati though. Nobody will be too upset if it takes a couple of years for Burrow and the new look team to start winning. Thats not the case for the Eagles though; this is a team which expects to win now. They're going to come in angry and I expect Burrow and co. to suffer the consequences. While they're highly motivated, the Eagles aren't pushing the panic button. Wentz had this to say: "We're not panicking. The sky is not falling. We have the potential with the pieces we have on this offense to be elite, to be great and we're excited to come out (next week) and start showing it.'' The Eagles are a resilient team, having dealt with a lot in recent seasons. Sanders noted: "...it's a long season and we're going to have opportunities. It takes resiliency and that's the type of team we have.'' Expect the resilient Eagles to bounce back, securing their first win and picking up the cover along the way. |
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09-26-20 | UTEP v. UL-Monroe -9 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA MONROE. Off to an 0-2 start, the Warhawks will be happy to step down in class and into the favorite role. They're also going to be highly motivated to get that first win. As tight end Josh Pederson noted: "The guys are hungry for that first win. Obviously we’re not happy about the last two weeks, but this game is an opportunity for us to get on track and I definitely think this is a must-win week." Note that Louisiana Monroe faces a UTEP team which is just 7-14-1 ATS (0-22 SU!) the past few seasons, when listed as an underdog. Indeed, the Miners are among the worst teams in the country. They do have two wins this season but those came against FCS teams. They haven't beaten an FBS opponent or won on the road since 2018. Playing in a "must win week," I say the Warhawks pull away for a double-digit win. |
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09-26-20 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State -6.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 54 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. While there are still some questions about the OSU QB (Gundy noted this Monday: “We’ve got three guys available and we’ll have to make that decision based on practice reps.”) situation, there's no question about their ground game. Expect Chuba Howard (2093 yards, 21 TDs LY) to do his thing. Meanwhile, the Cowboy defense also comes in on a high. Last time out, they allowed just 278 yards on 59 plays and limited Tulsa to 0-for-12 on third down conversions. As Gundy mentioned: "The defense was fabulous. Zero-for-12 on third down and one-for-four on fourth down is really the story of the game.” Expect that defense to give the WVU offense trouble on Saturday afternoon. Remember, WVU had the worst offense in the Big-12 last year. While they failed to cover in the win over Tulsa, Gundy's Cowboy's typically thrive in September. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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09-26-20 | Georgia Tech v. Syracuse OVER 52.5 | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 113 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on G-Tech/Syracuse OVER the total. The Yellow Jackets gave up 49 points themselves last week, that game hitting the 70 mark. Syracuse, obviously, isn't UCF. However, I still think that this number will prove to be too low. The reality is that these are probably the two worst tams in the conference. Or, at least, two of the worst. When facing stiffer competition, they're both likely to have trouble scoring at times. However, a game against a fellow "lightweight" provides an opportunity for both offenses to get healthy. These teams have only played twice since 2004. In both cases, G-Tech scored more than 50 points. I say they combine for more than 50 on Saturday afternoon, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
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09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. UTSA | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE. After back-to-back ugly losses to start the season, the Blue Raiders are going to be hungry to show everyone that they're better than those results indicate. Yes, they've struggled but this is a team they match up well against and they're coming in expecting to win. The Roadrunners are off to an impressive 2-0 start. However, keep in mind that one of those wins came by three points in double-OT and that the other came against lowly ranked Stephen F. Austin. After failing to cover in that game against Stephen Austin, the Roadrunners are just 4-9 ATS in home games the past couple of seasons, 1-3 ATS as favorites. Expect them to have their hands full once again. |
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09-24-20 | UAB -6 v. South Alabama | Top | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 81 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. The Blazers lost QB Tyler Johnston to injury. That's not ideal. However, its been factored into the line and we're getting UAB at a bit better price as a result. Importantly, backup Bryson Lucero has played in both games and with the Blazers off last weekend, he's had plenty of time to prepare for the starting role. I believe that the Blazers, who started the season a 10-point win before losing at Miami, have a talent advantage in this one. Keep in mind that this is an extremely experienced UAB team, one which feels capable of winning the rest of its games. Indeed, UAB returned 18 starters. The Blazers are 14-6-1 ATS in recent seasons when laying points and they're 4-1 ATS when coming off a bye. Look for the Blazers, who rarely lose in their home state, to improve on those stats, delivering a statement win over their "instate rival." |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO/LV UNDER the total. Brady took some criticism for poor play in his Tampa debut. However, I believe that the Saints defense deserves the credit. This New Orleans defense is loaded and they'll give a lot more QBs trouble than just Brady. Of course, the Saints offense is also dangerous. However, they do mix in a healthy amount of running plays (ran the ball 34x in Week 1) which helps to keep the clock moving. As for the Raiders, you know that they're also going to run the ball with regularity. Yes, they got into a high-scoring game against Carolina. Scoring points figures to be a lot more difficult for them this week though, which means that they're going to have to improve defensively if they want to compete. After scoring 30 in their opener last season, the Saints managed just nine points in their road opener, at LA. That game stayed well below its high O/U line. I believe that this one will also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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09-20-20 | Patriots v. Seahawks -200 | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 125 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing SEATTLE on the money-line. The Pats got the post-Brady era off to a winning start. However, a road game against the Seahawks is an entirely different deal from a home game against the Dolphins. Wilson was in excellent MVP-like form in his opening start. Indeed, the entire Seattle offense was clicking. The Hawks would finish with 38 points. I don't think that Newton and his new team will be able to keep up. On the other side of the ball, the Hawks new All-Pro Safety (Jamal Adams) looked good. He had 12 tackles and a sack and was all over the field. Wilson had this to say: 'He has brought the energy. He has brought the focus and I think that we are going to have a really great defense. That secondary looked really good.'' The Hawks are 15-4 SU the past few seasons, when listed as a favorite. Expect them to improve on those stats Sunday night. |
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09-20-20 | Ravens v. Texans +7 | Top | 33-16 | Loss | -120 | 163 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. I like how this one sets up for the Texans and believe that they're offering plenty of value. Everyone just saw the Texans get beaten up by the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Ravens just blew out the Browns. So, many are down on the Texans and high on the Ravens. Thats led to generous points with the Texans as a home underdog. Yes, the Ravens are good. But, its important not to over-react to one game. The Texans are better than they showed. They generated some momentum towards the end of the KC game and I expect them to carry it into this one. I really like that they've had an extra couple of days, due to having played on Thursday. This early in the season, after not having had a preseason, I believe that extra rest and preparation time will prove significant. While not having Hopkins hurts, Watson still has some weapons including Fuller who caught 8 of 10 for more than 100 yards. David Johnson showed promise out of the backfield (more than 100 total yards and a TD) and figures to be a big upgrade at running back. The Texans haven't forgotten that the Ravens hammered them last season, at Baltimore. They're coming in highly motivated. While I absolutely like their chances of the outright win, I expect their best effort to lead to AT LEAST a cover on Sunday afternoon. |
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09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 37-19 | Loss | -116 | 119 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Philadelphia UNDER the total. Given the play of both the offenses and defenses in Week 1, I believe that this number is generously high. LA ran the ball 40 times in its opener and scored 20 points in total. The heavy dose of running plays helped to chew up the clock. On the other side of the ball, the Rams new look defense was solid. At least, in the second half. The Cowboys managed only three points and 139 total yards after the break. MacVay noted: McVay said. ''...I like the way our defense settled in the game.'' It should be noted that the Rams stopped the Cowboys twice on fourth down while also stopping the Cowboys nine of 12 times on third down. As for the Eagles, Wentz got sacked eight times last week, while also getting picked off twice. They're going to be anxious to avoid a repeat performance, particularly with Aaron Donald coming to town. The Eagle offense managed only 90 total yards in the second half. While Doug Pederson may claim otherwise, I expect he'll be a little less aggresive (more run plays) to try and protect his QB. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles were arguably stingier than the score indicates. They held Washington to just 239 total yards of offense. The bottom line is that I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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09-19-20 | Louisiana Tech v. Southern Miss -5 | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISS. The Bulldogs are off a good season and they've got a 'big name' coach. This is a unique 'pandemic situation' though. LA Tech didnt play its first game due to Covid issues. It wasnt just a few players either. Nearly the entire roster has been out; more than 50 players were unavailable for the Baylor game. They've been dealing with extensive testing and stress and have been unable to properly practice or prepare. Hurricane season doesn't help matters. Remember, the Bulldogs lost a lot from last year's defense, too. Meanwhile, Southern Miss already has a game under its belt and now they've had a chance to work out some of their issues. The fact that the Golden Eagles lost that one should add to their determination here. The South Alabama loss notwithstanding, the Golden Eagles are typically pretty tough at home. Expect them to show no sympathy for their guests in this one. |
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09-19-20 | South Florida v. Notre Dame -25 | 0-52 | Win | 100 | 95 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ND. The Irish took a bit to get going against Duke and it cost them the cover. This is a very powerful team though. Now with a game under its belt and stepping down in class to take on lowly South Florida, I expect the Irish to go out and deliver a blowout. This is a moment that Brian Kelly and Irish fans have waited for. Payback. Flashback to the 2011 season, the second year that Kelly was coach. The Irish had a great season in Kelly's first year, one which culminated with a blowout of Miami in the Sun Bowl. Naturally, expectations were high the next season. The first opponent? South Florida. Yes, the Bulls scored the upset in that one and that kick-started what would be a very disappointing season for a loaded Irish team. They'd go on to start 1-4. That was a far better USF team though and the Bulls have regressed since that time. That won't stop Kelly from letting his current players know what happend roughly nine years ago. While the Bulls are worse than they were back then, the Irish are arguably even better. Expect Kelly to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, avenging the 2011 loss in blowout fashion while delivering a statment on just how far he's taken this team. |
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09-19-20 | Liberty v. Western Kentucky -13 | 30-24 | Loss | -108 | 138 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WESTERN KENTUCKY. I believe that this one sets up nicely for the home team. The Hilltoppers already have a game under their belts, as they played a tough opponent in Louisville. Now, they take a big step down in class to take on a Liberty team which has yet to play. WKU QB Tyrrell Pigrome figures to cause the Flames fits. Liberty defensive coordinator Scott Symons acknowledged as much: "I think it’s going to be a really big test for us. This will be the most athletic quarterback we have seen since we have been here, as far as making guys miss in space and those sorts of things. Big time challenge, big time athlete, appears that he’s a tough competitor, as well." Of course, a Liberty defense which returns only four starters is also going to have its hands full against the WKU rushing attack. Symons noted: "This will be the best backfield we have seen since we’ve been here, definitely at the Group of Five level." Look for the Hilltoppers, who will benefit from having already played, to put up a big number and for the Flames to be unable to keep up. |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns OVER 43 | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Cincinnati/Cleveland OVER the total. With both teams seeing their opening game stay below the number, this O/U line came down from its opener. Sitting below the important number of 44, I believe its providing us with excellent value. Its important not to over-react to one game. Sure, the Browns offense was bad. They'll be better on that side of the ball this week though. As Odell Beckham noted: 'Kind of just toss it up as a mulligan. You have 15 other games, 15 other opportunities. Just keep moving.'' In addition to OBK, Mayfield has a reliable receiving option in Landry while Chubb and Hunt provide capable weapons on the ground. As for the Bengals, Burrow now has a game under his belt and he, too, has weapons at his disposal. A.J. Green, back from injury, called Burrow "unbelievable" and noted: "That guy doesn't flinch. The way he handled himself in that last drive was unbelievable. I haven't seen any rookie the way he handled it after adversity. We got a special one in Joe." As for recent history, the last five games between these Ohio rivals have all produced 44 or more points, the 'over' going 4-0-1. They had scores of 56, 46, 44, 55 and 46. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns -6 | Top | 30-35 | Loss | -104 | 59 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I really like how this one sets up for the Browns. Both teams lost their opener. However, the Browns were crushed by Baltimore while Cincy lost a close one vs. the Chargers. That may have many thinking that the Bengals played better. However, the fashion that they lost that one (outscored 10-0 in 4th) figures to be harder to bounce back from (more deflating) than the Browns' blowout loss. Indeed, the Browns were embarrassed and they will be absolutely determined to bounce back and prove to the world that they aren't a joke. Remember, this is a team which has been stockpiling talent on both sides of the ball for years now. As Baker Mayfield noted: "Sometimes a wake-up call is good for everybody. A punch in the mouth and that’s how we should take it." Also, keep in mind that the Browns were on the road against a very tough Baltimore team last week while the Bengals played at home. Note that the Bengals are just 2-13 SU their last 15 on the road. The Browns have had success on Thursdays, going 8-4 ATS their last 12 and 2-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons. That includes a 21-7 win over the Steelers last season. Expect them to bounce back with an important win and cover. |
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09-14-20 | Titans v. Broncos UNDER 41 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 243 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tenn/Denver UNDER the total. Both these teams were in the top half of the league, in terms of a rushing attempts, last season. A relatively heavy dose of the run shoud keep the clock moving in this one. Both teams also ranked in the top half of the leauge, in terms of points allowed and in terms of rushing yards allowed, per attempt. Additionally, Denver was one of the worst offensive teams in the league last season. The Broncos ranked 28th in terms of points scored (17.6) and also 28th in terms of total yards (298.6) per game. These teams met last October and the final score was 16-0. Expect another low-scoring affair. |
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09-14-20 | Steelers -3.5 v. Giants | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 242 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. With quite a few years in the Patriots' organization and coming highly recommended from Belichick, its entirely possible that Joe Judge will go on to have a successful head coaching career. However, before that ever happens, I expect him to receive an unfriendly welcome to the head coaching fraternity by Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. Over the past few months, Judge has had to do a lot of things for the first time. He and the Giants very likely would have benefitted from the chance to get to know each other better over a few preseason games. Tomlin, on the other hand, knows his team well. They got horrible QB play last year and were still competitive. Now, the Steelers get Rothlisberger back and he'll surely be an improvement. Meanwhile, the defense is expected to rank among the league's best. Despite no preseason games, NY still managed to lose some starters to injury. The Giants' secondary was already thin and they lost Xavier McKinney. Though a rookie, he was expected to be their starting free safety. Meanwhile, linebacker David Mayo (143 tackles last year) also went down. While the Giants are projected to win six games this season, the Steelers O/U line is 9.5. Expect Tomlin's team to get the first of those Monday night, covering the relatively small number along the way. |
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09-13-20 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 46.5 | 43-34 | Loss | -115 | 215 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GB/Minnesota UNDER the total. I believe that this number will prove to be too high for this Week 1 divisional battle. These teams were both among the better defensive teams last season. The Vikings ranked #6 in terms of points allowed, the Packers ranked 12th. On offense, the Vikings had the fifth most rushing attempts per game last season. GB was middle of the pack in that area, at #16. The Packers figure to rely more regularly on the run this year. While Rodgers has been an elite QB for a long time, he's nearly 37 and can only do so much with a fairly limited supporting cast. Of course, frequent running plays help to keep the clock moving. Five of the past six meetings, including each of the past three, have finished with 41 or fewer combined points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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09-13-20 | Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 43 | 11-21 | Win | 100 | 215 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NE/Miami UNDER the total. I believe that this number will prove to be too high for this Week 1 divisional battle. As you know, with Brady having moved on to Tampa, its a new era in New England. Without the former future Hall-Of-Fame QB behind center, Belichick and the Pats are likely to employ a steady dose of the run. Of course, Belichick now has a QB who is also more capable of picking up yards on the ground, when needed. Newtown doesn't necessarily have the best weapons around him though. It helps when you bring back the league's top rated defense. New England allowed just 14.4 ppg last season and only 275.5 ypg. Both were best in the NFL. Fitzpatrick will get the start for the Dolphins. However, its likely only a matter of time before he's replaced by first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa. While Fitzpatrick is familiar with new offensive coordinator Gailey, the rest of the Dolphins are not. Miami knows it needs to be better defensively this season, if it wants to compete with for the division title. I say this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team UNDER 43 | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 215 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Philly/Washington UNDER the total. I believe that this number will prove to be too high for this Week 1 divisional battle. Washington was bad on both sides of the ball last season. The offense managed only 16.6 ppg, dead last in the league. Washington's 275 ypg ranked second last; only the Jets were worse. The Eagles were middle of the pack; their 23.2 ppg ranked 15th. Haskins may improve a little for Washington this season. Thats not saying much though, as he was pretty bad (76.1 passer rating) last year. He doesn't have much to work with, either. They'll do everything they can to try and establish the run, which in turn will keep the clock moving. The Washington defense should be its "strength," as least compared to the offense. The Eagles defense should be stout and this is a chance to get off to a strong start. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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09-13-20 | Packers v. Vikings -2.5 | Top | 43-34 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. This is the first time in the Vikings' 60-year history that they will open a season at home, against Green Bay. These teams have won 10 of the past 12 division titles and 14 of the past 18. If projected win totals mean anything, it'll likely be one or the other, once again. In other words, this is a big game. The Packers took both last season's meetings and went on to win the division title. The Vikings know they can't afford to let that happen again; I expect them to have the edge in Sunday afternoon's season opener. While Rodgers has been an elite QB for a long time, he's nearly 37 and can only do so much with a fairly limited supporting cast. The Vikings do have some new faces but the key contributors are back. While he doesn't have the big name of Rodgers, Cousins is off a strong year, finishing with a 107.4 passer rating. He threw for 3600+ yards with 26 TDs against six INTs. Dalvin Cook will play a prominent role and he's reportedly looked great in camp. I believe Minnesota has a slight edge on defense. While it should be a good game, I say the Vikes get the win and cover. |
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09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Kansas -6.5 | Top | 38-23 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS. Last year, here at Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Coastal Carolina beat Kansas by a score of 12-7. It was the first time that the Chanticleers had EVER beaten a 'Power 5' school. Needless to say, Les Miles and co. haven't forgotten. While the Jayhawks are young, they're still the more talented team here. The fact that they don't have to travel more than 1000 miles during a pandemic also works in their favor. Coastal Carolina coach Chadwell acknowledged that travel presents challenges: "They know we can lose somebody today to quarantine or whatever it may be. Until we get on that plane, there is going to be some apprehension ..." Addtionally, Coastal Carolina had to relocate due to Hurricane Dorian. (The Chanticleers stayed and training in South Carolina's Upstate region.) Les Miles knows his team needs to beat the likes of the Chanticleers. He'll have his team ready; I say its "payback time." |
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09-12-20 | Duke v. Notre Dame -19.5 | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 197 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on ND. The Irish hammered the Blue Devils 38-7 last season. That kicked off a stretch which saw the Irish close out their season by winning each of their final five games by 21 or more points. Expectations are very high this season and I look for the Irish, now part of the ACC, to make a statement in this one. While Duke is capable defensively, it won't be capable enough to stop this Irish attack. Indeed, ND brings back eight starters including QB Ian Book, who had 34 TDs against just six INTs last season. Speaking of Book, he was outstanding against the Blue Devils last season and that was at Duke. He threw for four TDs while gaining 139 yards on the ground. In fact, in that game, he became the first ND QB to throw for three or more TDs and run for more than 100 yards. Things were already bad on the offensive side of the ball for Blue Devils but losing starting center Wohlabaugh to a knew injury was a major blow. Of the chance to play in the ACC, Brian Kelly noted: "...Our players are excited though, quite honestly, that they get a chance to play for a championship - an ACC championship.'' Expect a blowout. |
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09-12-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Iowa State UNDER 56.5 | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Iowa State/UL Lafayette UNDER the total. The Cyclones managed only three first half points in last year's opener. I won't be surprised if they're slow to get going again here. The Cajuns were solid defensively last season. On offense, they're going to try and run the ball regularly. Not only will that help to chew up the clock but the Cyclones defensive line and linebackers are more than capable. Last year's opening final score of 29-26 was deceiving as it went to 3-OT periods. I don't think we'll see OT in this one and I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 55.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 1490 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/Houston UNDER the total. I successfully played on the 'over' (for the first half) when these teams met in the playoffs. So, I'm well aware that they can score points in a hurry. That said, for the opening game of the season, with no preseason, I feel that the the offenses won't be clicking the way that they were in January; the timing is likely to be just a little off. Houston has some new faces on offense. Keep in mind that the Chiefs slowed things down in their SB win and held SF to 20 total points, that game staying below the total. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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09-10-20 | UAB +14.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. Obviously, the Canes have the bigger name and hail from the bigger conference. They get to recruit the better players. That said, the Blazers have a lot working in their favor here. They've already got a game under their belts and put up 45 points in the process. They arguably played better than the 45-35 score indicates, too. Central Arkansas got a few scores off turnovers; UAB had a 459-293 edge in total yards, including a 233-100 rushing advantage. Having worked out a few kinks will help them here. Keep in mind that UAB went 9-5 last season and won a bowl game. While the Blazers return a number of key starters, the Canes lost a lot of them. Miami has struggled as a favorite in recent seasons and will have its hands full here. Grab the generous points. |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy UNDER 49.5 | Top | 55-3 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU/Navy UNDER the total. BYU is nearly always stingy and with plenty of experience on that side of the ball, that should again be the case. The Cougars return seven starters on that side of the ball and several others who got plenty of playing time. Not always known for its defense, Navy is also expecting to be relatively stout this season. Coach Niumatalolo noted: ''We're counting on our defense to be our strength. As we get our quarterback group going, we're going to rely on our defense a lot. I have total faith in the them.'' The offense, a work in progress, has been hindered by a late start, shorter practices and safety protocols, due to the pandemic. While the Cougars return QB Wilson, he loses his receiving weapons. His tight-end (last year's leading receiver) got hurt and his three top receivers from last year are all gone. Look for points to prove harder to come by than many will be expecting. |
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09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army OVER 55 | 0-42 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MTSU/Army OVER the total. These teams were supposed to face other opponents; Army was to face Bucknell while the Blue Raiders were set to square off against Duke. The world and schedule changed though and this game was quickly thrown together. Not ideal for MTSU as it doesn't get as much of a chance to prepare for Army's unique attack as it normally might have. The Knights averaged 37 ppg last season. They're fired up about the season and I expect them to have no trouble scoring against a relatively porous MTSU defense. Its on the other side of the ball where Army figures to have problems. The Army defense lost a couple of bigtime players in LB Cole Christiansen and DB Elijah Riley, both of whom signed as free agents with NFL teams. Its more than that though as the Army defense must also learn an entirely new system. As coach Monken admitted: "New defensive coordinator, new defense staff. That's a challenge for our guys on that side of the ball to learn the system, the terminology, assignments. We're working through it, but there's growing pains.'' They're going to have trouble containing MTSU's Asher O'Hara. Meanwhile, the Raiders also lost a number of important players on the defensive side of the ball and they were bad defensively to begin with. They ranked 113th against the run and 101st against the pass. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss UNDER 53.5 | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on South Alabama/Southern Miss UNDER the total. The Jags don't win many road games. In fact, they're 0-12 under Steve Campbell, when playing on the road. So, I'm reluctant to back them. Yet, I do expect them to fight hard and I'm not confident laying the big number with the Eagles, either. Instead, I believe that the value lies with the total. The Golden Eagles still have their star QB (Abraham) but he lost some weapons. Indeed, three of their top four offensive playmakers have moved on. Perhaps more importantly, they're learning new systems with a new offensive (and defensive) coordinator. That's significant given that they got less practice time than normal. They'll very likely win but I don't expect them to put up a huge number in the process. Look for the final combined score to prove lower than expected. |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 332 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/SF UNDER the total. Both conference championship games finished above the total. Those results have helped provide us with a generously high O/U line for the big game. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The 49ers are here, in large part, to their defense. While they eventually gave up some points, they held the Packers scoreless through the first half, making Rodgers look bad. On the season, they allow just 18.9 ppg and 279 ypg. Though more known for their offense, the Chiefs defense is better than people realize. They allow a respectable 20.2 ppg and 357 ypg. Going into the game against the Titans, people said they were vulnerable against the run and that they would have trouble against Henry. After all, Henry had been running wild. They silence those critics though, effectively taking him out of the game, or at least limiting him. The 49ers only played two games with a total of 50 or greater all season and both of those finished below the number. They've also seen the UNDER go 3-1 against AFC teams and 2-0 the past two times that they played with two week's rest in between games. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high total. |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs -112 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 332 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC. (Moneyline) Sometimes you need to lose, before you can win. Andy Reid has felt the pain of losing. Of coming so close to winning it all, only to come up short. Recall the 24-21 Super Bowl loss by Reid and the McNabb led Eagles team in 2005. McNabb was among the first to congratulate Reid, stating "thats my coach, best I ever had." Indeed, most of his players, past and present, love Reid. I believe he's a better coach than he used to be. That he's learned from his failures. The Chiefs, as a team, have had a small taste of the pain that Reid knows all too well. Recall how close they were to reaching the Super Bowl, only to come up short, last season. They've felt what its like to lose and they know how hard it is to get here. Now, they've taken the next step and I believe they're ready to seal the deal. With all due respect to McNabb, who was a great QB in his own right, Mahomes is playing a different level. He can calmly pick defenses apart, beating them short or long. If thats not there, he beats you with his legs. In four playoff games, he's got 11 TDs and 0 interceptions. We've seen the Chiefs show the ability to come back. They fell behind against the Titans last game, no problem. Down 24-0 against the Texans. Whatever. They rallied to crush them. Sure, the 49ers ran all over the Packers. Henry ran all over everyone though and the Chiefs stopped him. While I obvsiously, respect the 49er defense, I feel that its Andy Reid's time. |
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01-19-20 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -105 | 60 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on GB/SF UNDER. The 49ers have been a dominant defensive team all season. Last week, they held the Vikings to 10 points for the entire game. When these teams met earlier, the Packers didn't score a single point in the first half. For the season, SF is allowing only 8.4 points, here at home, in the first half. Green Bay has also been playing very well defensively. Last week, the Pack held Seattle to only three first half points. Overall, SF allows 18.8 ppg while GB allows 19.8. The UNDER is 3-1 when the Packers were underdogs and each of their past two road games fell below the total. I expect both teams to look to establish the run early, helping to chew up the clock and for that to lead to a low-scoring affair. |
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01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 143 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC. The Titans have certainly been impressive. First, they knocked off New England, a top defensive team. Next, they crushed Baltimore, a top offensive team. Obviously, Henry has been an absolute beast. I believe that the Chiefs are a different animal though. Mahomes has been here before and he's peaking at the right time. The Chiefs fell behind 24-0 out of the gate last week and they didn't even bat an eye. By halftime, they were up by four. By the end of the game, they won by 20. Yes, they ended the game on a 51-7 run. Thats absolutely dominant. The Titans haven't fallen behind. So, thats allowed them to keep running Henry the entire game. However, when the Chiefs get up double-digits, as I expect them to do, its going to be a lot harder for the Titans to stick with the running game. While both teams played last week, the Chiefs played at home, while the Titans were on the road. The previous week, the Chiefs had a much-needed bye while the Titans were again on the road. That extra rest and not having to play on the road will help the Chiefs here. Indeed, this is the Titans fourth road game in four weeks. That can and will take a toll. KC hasn't been on the road since before Christmas. The Titans are 0-2 ATS when off a double-digit win as an underdog. Going back further finds them at 6-17-3 ATS in that situation. The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS as home favorites. Yes, the Titans beat them earlier. But the Chiefs are also 3-0 SU/ATS their last three in the revenge role, 7-3 SU/ATS their last 10. They're 15-5-1 ATS off a double-digit win. Expect another double-digit victory. |
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01-13-20 | Clemson v. LSU UNDER 70.5 | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 193 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clemson/LSU UNDER the total. Obviously, I have a lot of respect for both QBs and both offenses. That said, this is an extremely high O/U number and I also highly respect both defenses. Clemson held a potent Ohio State offense to 23 points to get here. That was a Buckeye team which came into that game averaging 48.7 ppg and 531.6 yards per game. Meanwhile, Clemson was held to 26 points. Prior to that game, Clemson had allowed 17 or fewer points in eight straight games. Over that 8-game span, they allowed a total of only 78, an average of less than 10 per game. LSU did allow some points (28) to Oklahoma but keep in mind that in its previous two games, it held Georgia and A&M to only 10 and 7. Did you know that the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 the past seven times that Clemson played with two or more week's worth of rest in between games? (Last year's final game did go OVER with 60 points but the Tigers weren't playing with as much rest.) During that span, the UNDER is also 2-0 when the (Clemson) Tigers played a game with O/U line of 63 or more and 4-0 when they were off four or more consec. ATS wins. Meanwhile, the UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 over the years when LSU was off three straight ATS victories, when favored by seven or more points. There will be plenty of scoring. Just not enough to reach this very big O/U number. |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers -3.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 125 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on GREEN BAY. I have a lot of respect for Russell Wilson. Pete Carroll, too. However, I expect their season to come to an end on Sunday. The Hawks lost a heartbreaker vs the 49ers two weeks ago, a game that came down to the final play. Last week, they left in all on the field, at Philly. Playing back-to-back road games can be tough. While they were giving it everything they had, the Pack were resting. That extra rest, combined with homefield advantage, will prove the difference here. The Pack were 7-1 at home (5-0 L5) this season and six of those seven wins, including each of the past four, came by more than four points. The Hawks defense came up big last week, holding the Eagles (minus Carson Wentz for most of it) to nine points. They're only 4-8 ATS the past dozen times that they allowed 14 or fewer points in their previous game though. The Pack are 9-4 ATS (12-1 SU) the past 13 times that they were home favorites of seven or less. Expect them to improve on those stats Sunday. |
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01-11-20 | Titans v. Ravens OVER 47 | Top | 28-12 | Loss | -116 | 154 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tennessee/Baltimore OVER the total. The Titans were involved in a defensive battle against the Patriots in the Wildcard round. However, that was facing the stingiest team in the league, in terms of points against. While the Ravens were also stout defensively, they're much better offensively than the Pats. In fact, the Ravens had the best offense in the entire league this year. They averaged 33.2 ppg. No other team averaged even 30. (The Pats average 25.5) So, we've got a Ravens' defense that allows more points than the Pats and a Ravens offense that scores nearly eight points a game more. Yet, there's only about four points difference in the O/U line. I feel thats providing us excellent value with the OVER. The Ravens have been practically unstoppable. Its very likely, in my opinion, that they're going to put up a big number. That will force the Titans to have to score more than they needed to against New England. (Each of the Ravens' last five opponents has hit double-digits.) Off b2b wins, which followed a loss to NO, note that the Titans have seen the OVER go a perfect 5-0 after having won two of their previous three. The last time that the Ravens played a meaningful game on this field, they beat the Jets 42-21. Overall, Baltimore games averaged more than 50 points this season. Look for Saturday's game to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-05-20 | Seahawks -1 v. Eagles | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 77 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on SEATTLE. The Eagles went on a nice run to get here. However, the fact is that they're still a 9-7 team which got four of its wins against the Giants and Redskins, a pair of teams with a combined 7-25 record. While their known for having a strong homefield advantage, the Seahawks have been excellent on the road. They know they can win here, too. In fact, they did so back in October. Including that 17-9 victory, the Hawks are a dominant 10-1 SU and 8-1-2 ATS the past 11 times that they played a road game with an O/U line ranging from 45.5 to 49. They're also 6-1 ATS their last seven against teams from the NFC East and 8-1 SU their last nine as a road favorite. Off the tough loss to SF in their reg. season finale, note that the Hawks are 5-1-2 ATS (6-2 SU) the past eight time that they were off a home loss. Expect Wilson to lead them to another victory on Sunday afternoon. |
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans UNDER 43.5 | Top | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 58 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/Houston UNDER the total. The Bills averaged only 19.6 ppg this season. That ranked just 23rd in the NFL. None of the other teams scored so few points. Every other team which is playing this weekend, with the exception of Houston, ranked in the top 12 of the league, in terms of points scored. (The Texans were 14th.) So, these are the two lowest scoring teams involved in this week's games. Despite scoring so few points, the Bills are absolutely here on the strength of their defense. The 16.2 ppg which they allow ranked 2nd in the entire league, only behind the Patriots. When playing on the road, the Bills were even stingier. Outside of Buffalo, they allowed only 15.6 ppg. In terms of total yards allowed, the Bills rank 3rd in the NFL. They give up 298 ypg, which trails only the Pats and the 49ers - and not by much. The Bills know they'll have to bring it on "D" once again, as they've scored 17 or less in four straight games. These teams met here in 2018; the final score was 20-13. With the UNDER a perfect 4-0 the past four times that the Bills were road underdogs of three or less, expect a similar result on Saturday afternoon. |
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01-04-20 | Tulane v. Southern Miss OVER 56.5 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -109 | 552 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on Southern Miss / Tulane OVER the total. These teams used to face each other on a yearly basis, the annual "Battle For The Bell." That series ended in 2010 with Southern Miiss winning by a 46-30 score in the final game. I expect another high-scoring affair when these old foes reunite on Jan. 4th. Tulane doesn't play much defense. Over their last five games, the Green Wave allowed 37, 34, 29, 26 and 41 points. They did score 20 or more in all five games, however, topping the 30 mark in three of them. All five games saw at least 50 points scored and they averaged 63. On the season, Tulane games averaged 60.7 ppg. While the Golden Eagles did finish the season on an 'under' streak, they also allowed at least 28 in each of their final two games and they scored 37 and 36 in their two previous games before that. Its worth mentioning that the OVER is 6-2 the past eight times that the they've been listed as neutral field underdogs. Having gone 0-2 SU/ATS their final two, its also noteworthy that the Golden Eagles have seen the OVER go 4-1 the past five times that they'd failed to cover each of their past two games and a 2-0 OVER mark when they were off b2b SU losses. As for the Armed Forces Bowl itself, its been very high-scoring of late. In 2015, this bowl had a score of 35-34. The next season, the score was 55-36. That was followed by a 48-45 game and a 42-35 one after that. Last season's game had a score of 70-14. With both offenses having success, look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-03-20 | Ohio -9.5 v. Nevada | Top | 30-21 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 50 m | Show |
FRIDAY 10* CFB MAIN EVENT (71% IN 2020) **OHIO/NEVADA** While he came up short with the total in the Birmingham Bowl, Ben Burns already has a 5-2 (+$2,810) record with his top rated selections in 2020. He's putting that 71.43% RECORD on the line for this afternoon's Idaho Potato Bowl. Don't miss it! I'm playing on OHIO. Nevada has the better record and played in the tougher conference. Yet, Ohio is favored. What gives? Indeed, a lot of people are likely going to be quick to grab the points, based on the records/conferences alone. However, in my opinion, the Bobcats are favored for good reason. In fact, I expect them to win this one by double-digits. Here are a few of the reasons why. The Bobcats outscored teams by 92 points this season. Nevada, on the other hand, was outscored by 129 points. The Bobcats could have easily had a better record, as they lost four games by a field goal or less. The Bobcats have a big edge on offense. In addition to their experienced coach, they've got an excellent senior QB, working behind a solid offensive line and complemented by a pair of capable backs. They'll be working against a depleted Nevada defense which has a few interim head coaches, after Casteel got fired and which is dealing with multiple suspensions. Ultimately, I believe the Bobcats will put up a big number and I don't expect Nevada to be able to keep up. |
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati OVER 54.5 | Top | 6-38 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Cincy OVER the total. While the Bearcats have indeed been profitable for 'under' bettors, the opposite is true of the Eagles. Even with its last two games staying below the total, Boston College has still seen the OVER go 8-4 on the season. Thats what happens when you have a porous defense though. The Eagles give up 31.7 ppg and a whopping 480.3 yards per game. They're even worse defensively when playing away from home, as they allow 33.7 ppg and 510.2 ypg. When facing some weaker defenses earlier in the season, the Bearcats put up big numbers. They scored 52 against Marshall, 38 against Houston, 46 against ECU and 48 vs. UConn. They'll be licking their chops at the prospects of facing BC. While they have trouble stopping the other team, the Eagles can score. They average 30.9 ppg. Note that the OVER is 2-0 in BC neutral site games the past couple of years. Even though the majority of Cincy games did fall below the total, the OVER was 2-1 when they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. Look for those stats to improve as this afternoon's game proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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01-01-20 | Baylor v. Georgia -6 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 223 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. Yes, the Bulldogs just got hammered by LSU. However, in case you haven't heard, the Tigers are extremely strong this season. So, there's not much shame in getting blown out by them. After thumping the Bulldogs, LSU went on to smash the Sooners. Yes, the same Sooners who beat Baylor, twice. Georgia still outscores teams by a dominating 33.5 to 12.1 margin. Only Clemson (11.5) allows fewer points per game. Baylor allows 19.3 ppg. While Georgia allows 273.4 ypg, the Bears allow 358.9. While Baylor is 1-4 ATS its last five off a bye, the Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS their last six off a bye. Expect their superior defense to prove the difference, the Bulldogs pulling away for a double-digit victory. |
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01-01-20 | Wisconsin v. Oregon UNDER 52 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -110 | 220 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Wisconsin/Oregon UNDER the total. These are two of the top defenses in the country. Wisconsin ranks 10th with 16.1 points allowed per game. Oregon ranks 8th, allowing just 15.7 ppg. Last time out, the Ducks limited Utah to only 15. In terms of total yards, the Badgers rank 8th, allowing just 293.5 ypg. The Ducks aren't too far behind; they allow 329.6 ypg. The Badgers have seen the UNDER go 10-6 the past 2+ seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 49.5 to 56 range. During that span, the Ducks have seen three of five stay below the total, when playing a game with an O/U line in that range. With the Ducks listed as small underdogs, its also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-4 the past dozen times that they were getting points. Look for points to prove hard to come by, the UNDER improving to 6-1 the past seven times that Wisonsin was off two or more consecutive ATS wins. |
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01-01-20 | Minnesota v. Auburn -7 | 31-24 | Loss | -106 | 216 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on AUBURN. I believe that this line could easily be higher. Keep in mind that Auburn beat Alabama last game. It also very nearly defeated both LSU and Georgia, losing by three and seven. While the Gophers have indeed had a great season, their schedule hasn't been nearly as tough as the one Auburn had to contend with. Not even close. Other than being more "battle-tested," the Tigers have the superior defense. Both teams score 34 ppg. However, the Tigers allow 18.6 while Minnesota allows 22.6. Again, that came against a schedule that included the likes of LSU, Alabama, Georgia and Oregon. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS the past eight times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. During that span, the Gophers were 3-5 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. Look for Auburn to improve to 4-1 ATS the past five times it was favored on a neutral field. |