Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-01-20 | Michigan v. Alabama -7 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 216 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ALABAMA. While the Tide may not be where they'd like to be, this is still a New Year's Day game against Michigan. I don't believe they'll have any trouble with motivation. That said, I expect the superior team/talent to rise to the top. The Wolverines are 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS the last couple of seasons, when getting points. The Crimson Tide, who came up short against Auburn last game, are 2-0 SU/ATS the past couple of times that they were off a conf. loss. After the earlier LSU loss, Alabama won its next game by a 38-7 score, while laying -19. The Wolverines, who were blown out by Ohio State last game, are only 3-8 ATS against teams outside the Big Ten, the past couple of seasons. They're also just 6-14 ATS the last 20 times that they were off a loss of 17 or more. Expect the Tide to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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12-31-19 | Georgia State v. Wyoming OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 54 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on Wyoming/Georgia State OVER the total. While the Cowboys enter on an 'under' streak, they're facing a defensively-challenged Georgia State team. On the season, the Panthers allow a whopping 36.1 ppg, second worst in the Sun Belt. Indeed, this will be one of the weakest defenses which Wyoming has faced. The Cowboys will have a big day on offense. However, the Panthers can score themselves. They average 32.4 ppg and aren't going to go down quietly. Note that the OVER is 5-1 the past six times that the Panthers were of a conference road loss. This season, the OVER was 3-0 when they were off a road loss overall. Expect the OVER to improve to 6-1 the past seven times that Wyoming played with two or more week's of rest in between games. |
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12-31-19 | Kentucky v. Virginia Tech -135 | 37-30 | Loss | -135 | 48 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm playing VT on the ML. While I successfully played against the Hokies in their loss to Virginia, I believe they'll bounce back and beat Kentucky, in the Belk Bowl. When playing away from home, the Wildcats average only 14.5 ppg and 325.7 ypg. While the Hokies haven't been great at covering in the favorite role, they do tend to win when favored. They're 15-6 SU as favorites the past 2+ seasons. Kentucky is 1-4 SU its last five as an underdog. Remember, prior to the UVA loss, the Hokies had won their previous two games by a combined score of 73-0. Expect them to bounce back and close the year a winner. |
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12-30-19 | Virginia v. Florida UNDER 56 | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on UVA/Florida UNDER the total. This O/U line has climbed a bit from its opener. I believe it'll prove to be too high. The Cavs come in on an 'over' streak, which has helped in terms of line value. They haven't faced a team like this one lately though. In their final three games, the Gators allowed 0, 6 and 17 points, an average of less than eight per game. Those three teams averaged a mere 211 ypg. For the season, the Gators are allowing an average of just 14.4 ppg and 299.6 ypg. The UNDER is 3-1 the past four times that Florida scored 37 or more in its previous game. Note that the UNDER is also 2-0 when the Gators played on a neutral field. After getting crushed by Clemson, the Cavs will be focused on avoiding a similar fate. Expect the UNDER to improve to 5-2 the past seven times that they were off a bye. |
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12-29-19 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -120 | 131 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on SEATTLE. Needless to say, this is a huge game for both teams. Playing at home, I expect the battle-tested Seahawks to have the advantage. While the 49ers have enjoyed a great season, this is still relatively new territory to them. The Hawks and their rabid fans have been here before. Many times. Russell Wilson is starting to get some credit as being one of the best QBs but he's still under-rated, in my opinion. The signing of Lynch is only going to get the crowd going that much more. Beast Mode is back and the veteran's explosive personality should provide a boost for the entire team. The Hawks are 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were getting points. They're also a perfect 5-0 SU (3-0-2 ATS) the past five times that they were off a division loss. While I like Seattle to win outright, with the last two meetings both decided by a field goal, I'm happy to grab the points. |
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12-29-19 | Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 153 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indianapolis/Jacksonville UNDER the total. I won with the Colts' under in last week's game. Here's an excerpt from that writeup: "While they're favored by nearly a touchdown, the Colts offense isn't very good. That means they'll need to win this one with their defense. Indianapolis managed only seven points last game and has scored 17 or less in three of its last four. Going back a bit further and the Colts have scored 17 or less in five of their last eight games. Last week's 30-24 Carolina/Seattle score was a bit deceiving as 21 points came quickly towards the end. The score had been 23-10 still nearing the mid-way point of the fourth ... " Indy did indeed win with its defense, limiting Carolina to six points. Once again, the Colts are favored against an offensively-challenged opponent. Once again, I feel that means that they're going to need to win it with defense. Note that the Colts score against Carolina actually could have easily been lower-scoring than it was; the Colts scored punt return TD's of 71 and 84 yards. On the season, the Jags rank 27th in scoring with 17.9 ppg. They've been even worse lately though. The Jags scored 12 points last time out. Prior to that, they scored 20, 10, 11, 20, 13 and 3. (The 13 came against these same Colts.) The Colts rank just 24th in the league in total yards. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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12-29-19 | Jets v. Bills OVER 36.5 | 13-6 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NY/Buffalo OVER the total. This is a very low number and I believe it'll prove to be too low. With nothing really to play for, there's little reason to be conservative. The Jets will be playing their final game while the Bills are locked into the #5 seed. Sure, Allen and some of the Buffalo starters may not be around too long. That doesn't mean the second stringers won't be hungry to score though. Remember, the Jets allow more than 28 ppg on the road and they gave up 42 in their last road game. Look for the OVER to move to 3-0 the past three times that the Jets played a game with an O/U line in the 35.5 to 38 range. |
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12-28-19 | Clemson v. Ohio State +3 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -115 | 486 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE. I successfully played against the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship. They were facing a revenge-minded Wisconsin team which had a bigtime back and which was coming in full of confidence. The Buckeyes took the Badgers' best punch but stormed back to still win by 13. To most, Clemson's 62-17 win over Virginia was probably more impressive. However, I'd also backed the Cavs in their previous game, a 39-30 win over archrival V-Tech. The Cavs. not nearly as strong as Wisconsin in the first place, were still celebrating snapping their skid against the Hokies and never really believed they would beat Clemson. I guess what I'm trying to say is that I was not more impressed with Clemson's win than I was with Ohio State's win. Really, I believe the closer win and the fact that they were tested will serve the Buckeyes better than Clemson winning in another blowout. Overall, the Buckeyes' schedule was arguably much tougher too, not just that final game. Thats going to serve them well here as they've faced plenty of quality teams while Clemson hasn't really done so. Over the years, Clemson is 30-31 ATS when playing a line with a game in the +3 to -3 range. During the same span, the Buckeyes were 30-16-2 ATS when playing a game with a line in that range. During that span, they were also 31-19 ATS when getting points. While I respect the Tigers, I believe the wrong team is favored. Ohio State gets it done. |
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12-28-19 | Memphis v. Penn State OVER 59.5 | 39-53 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Memphis/PSU OVER the total. While I certainly respect the Nittany Lions' defense, the offense is pretty good too. The Lions averaged 34.3 ppg this season. They know they're going to need to score a lot in this one as the Tigers average 40.5 ppg. When playing away from home, Memphis averages a whopping 43 ppg and 524.3 ypg. The OVER is 5-2 the past seven times that Memphis was an underdog and 4-1 the past five times that the Tigers played with two or more week's rest in between games. Likewise, Penn State has also seen the OVER go 4-1 the past five times that it played with two or more week's rest in between games. Expect those stats to improve as this afternoon's final combined score proves higher than many will be expecting. |
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12-27-19 | Washington State v. Air Force UNDER 69 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on AF/WSU UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U line and I believe it'll prove to be too high. Obviously, the Cougars are a high-scoring team. The Huskies held them to 13 points in the Apple Cup though and I believe that Air Force will also have some success in slowing them down. The Falcons held Wyoming to six points last time out. They've limited three of their past five opponents to 13 or fewer points and none of those five teams scored more than 22. Note that the UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of times that Air Force played with two or more week's worth of rest in between games. The UNDER is also 3-0 when AF was off b2b double-digit conference wins. The Cougs were underdogs three times this season and two of those games stayed below the number. This one will too. |
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12-27-19 | Oklahoma State v. Texas A&M -4 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. This line has come down and I feel thats providing excellent value with the favorite. The Aggies have taken on the likes of Alabama, Auburn and Clemson. You may recall they very nearly beat both "Tiger" teams, losing by four to Auburn and just two against Clemson. The Cowboys aren't in the same class. Despite taking on some of the best teams in the country, the Aggies still allow an average of just 22.7 ppg. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, allows 27. While there will be a lot of talk about having their running back (Chuba Hubbard) healthy, its important to note that the Cowboys will be without their star safety (Kolby Harvell-Peel). Texas A@M already had the better defense and his absence makes the Cowboys' unit that much weaker. Meanwhile, the Cowboys other starting safety will have to sit for the first half due to targeting in the OU game. It all adds up to a win and cover for the Aggies. |
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12-27-19 | Michigan State -170 v. Wake Forest | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm playing MICHIGAN STATE on the money-line. I actually really like the Spartans to not only win but cover. However, with most shops at -4 and this line at less than two dollars, I feel that the moneyline currently offers better value. I may still add an ATS play on the Spartans but am holding out with the hope the line could come down. While the Demon Deacons have the superior record, I believe the Spartans are the more talented team. While the Spartans biggest advantage is on the defensive side of the ball, I also expect Elijah Collins to have a big day, the offensive line creating some lanes for him to run. The Deacons are 2-4 ATS the past six times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range and they were only 1-5 SU in those games. During the same stretch, the Spartans were 6-2 ATS as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range, winning seven of those outright. Expect them to improve on those stats Friday afternoon, helping to take some of the sting out of a disappointing season overall. |
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12-24-19 | BYU -1.5 v. Hawaii | 34-38 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BYU. The Warriors may have home field advantage but the Cougars are favored for good reason. They're more talented and they faced the tougher schedule. As always, the question is, will the Cougars be motivated to play in this relatively low profile bowl. The answer, in my opinion, is absolutely. BYU coach Kalani Sitake is the first Tongan coach in the FBS. He's got a staff filled with other Polynesians (Ilaisa Tuiaki, Fesi Sitake, Nu'u Tafisi, Fitisemanu, Damuni, Jansen Ah You, Manase Tonga, Vince Feula and Harvey Unga) and BYU has a rich history of recruiting Polynesian players. Its a big deal to Sitake and I expect his players to treat it accordingly. These teams met at BYU in 2018 and the Cougars won 49-23. The previous season, here at Hawaii, the Cougars won by 10. After getting upset by SD. State in their final game, look for Sitake's Cougars to bounce back and win this one, improving to 7-2 ATS their last nine, when off an upset loss as a favorite. |
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12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings -4 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -109 | 179 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Both teams are off impressive wins last week. Playing at home, playing with revenge from the earlier loss at Lambeau, I believe it'll be the Vikings which follow it up with a victory here. While the Packers have actually been outscored by an average of 21.2 to 20.8 on the road, the Vikings are outscoring teams by an average of 27.7 to 14.2 here at Minnesota. Big difference. The Packers have been outgained by an average of 378.3 to 271, in terms of yards per game, when playing on the road. Perfect at home, the Vikes have outgained visiting teams by a 368.3 to 341.7 margin. Again, a big difference. Last year's game at Lambeau was 29-29 but the Vikings won 24-17 when playing here at home. The previous season, they won 23-10 here. The Pack are 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. The Vikes are 9-3 ATS their last 12 as home favorites of seven or less. I believe homefield will again prove significant and I'm laying the relatively small number. |
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12-23-19 | Marshall v. Central Florida -15 | 25-48 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCF. These teams have a history as they faced each other 11 times as members of CUSA, from 2002-2012. UCF won ALL 11 games. While I'm aware of Marshall's strong bowl record over the years, once again, the Knights are the superior team. The big question is, will the Knights be "up" for the game, as they had aspirations of a bigger bowl. I believe that the answer to that question is yes. It may not be high profile but this is still a stand-alone nationally televised game, close to home, where the Knights have a chance to show the world how good they really are. Not just the offense either. This is a team which can dominate defensively. The Knights allowed just seven points last time on the field. Expect them to really slow down the Herd here, pulling away for the win and cover. |
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12-23-19 | Marshall v. Central Florida UNDER 61.5 | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCF/Marshall UNDER in the Gasparilla Bowl. These teams have a history as they faced each other 11 times as members of CUSA, from 2002-2012. Seven of those 11 games finished below the total. Working with generously high number and with both defenses in fine form, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. Keep in mind that Marshall games averaged 48.9 points this season. The Herd will try and run and keep the clock moving and to keep the UCF offense on the sidelines as much as possible. It won't be easy though as the Knights are playing stingy defense right now. In fact, the Knights allowed a mere seven points in their last game, their fourth straight 'under.' Note that the UNDER is 13-7 the last 20 times they were off a home win, 9-4 when that win came by 17 or more. While Marshall allowed 27, it has still allowed an average of only 17 points its past four games. Go with the Under. |
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12-22-19 | Chiefs v. Bears +5 | Top | 26-3 | Loss | -105 | 151 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bears lost at Lambeau last week while the Chiefs continued their dominance of Denver. Those results have helped in providing us with strong value with Chicago. Indeed, the Bears have thrived in the home underdog role. They're 7-1 ATS their last eight, when getting points at home, 2-0 SU/ATS this season. Last time they were underdogs here, they beat Dallas outright. Playing their home finale, naturally, they're going to be fired up. I believe they're going to have success moving the ball against the Chiefs' defense and I expect AT LEAST another cover on Sunday night. |
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12-22-19 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 51.5 | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Seattle/Arizona UNDER the total (BLUE CHIP). This is a very high total and I believe it'll prove to be too high. Neither team has been facing O/U lines this high recently. This season's earlier meeting had an O/U line of 49 and finished with just 37. Including that result, the Cards are averaging just 17 points against fellow NFC West teams. Seattle divisional games average 46.7, less than their games against non-divisional opponents. Arizona has scored 17 or less in two of its last three while Seattle has scored 17 or less in two of its last four. The last five meetings between the teams have all finished with 51 or less. I say this one does too. |
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12-22-19 | Raiders v. Chargers -5.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -109 | 146 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. Both these teams have disappointed. While the Raiders actually have the better record, I believe the set up favors the Chargers. Rivers and co. still have plenty of pride. Playing their home finale and also playing with revenge from last month's 26-24 loss at Oakland, they're going to be highly motivated for this one. As for the Raiders, they played their final game at Oakland last week. That wasn't even enough to really motivate them, as stumbling Jacksonville handed the Raiders their fourth straight setback. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined score of 136-49 in those four losses. Ugly. The Chargers are 3-1 ATS the past four times that they attempted to avenge an earlier 'upset' loss. Going back further finds them at 25-13 ATS in that situation. Laying -6 points, the Chargers beat the Raiders 27-10 here last season. Expect another double-digit win. |
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12-22-19 | Panthers v. Colts UNDER 47.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Carolina/Indy UNDER the total. While they're favored by nearly a touchdown, the Colts offense isn't very good. That means they'll need to win this one with their defense. Indianapolis managed only seven points last game and has scored 17 or less in three of its last four. Going back a bit further and the Colts have scored 17 or less in five of their last eight games. Last week's 30-24 Carolina/Seattle score was a bit deceiving as 21 points came quickly towards the end. The score had been 23-10 still nearing the mid-way point of the fourth. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair, the UNDER improving to 4-1 the past five times that the Colts were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. |
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12-22-19 | Saints v. Titans UNDER 50.5 | 38-28 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NO/Tennessee UNDER the total. This is a very high total and I believe it'll prove to be too high. I expect a heavy dose of the run from the Titans in this one, as they look to keep the Saints offense on the sideline. Yards won't come easily though as the Saints are stingy against the run. Allowing 90.9 rypg, they rank 4th in the NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed. The Saints have seen the UNDER go 8-3 the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 49.5 or higher. During the same stretch, factoring in last week's game vs. Houston, the UNDER is 3-0 when the Titans have played a game with an O/U line of 49.5 or higher. Expect those stats to improve here. |
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12-21-19 | Rams +7 v. 49ers | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 127 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. Two weeks ago, I won with the Rams when they beat up on Seattle. Last week, I successfully played against the Rams, when they got hammered by Dallas. I'm coming right back with them here though. The 49ers also lost. However, they're loss may well take more of a toll on them this week, than LA's loss, due to the nature of it. The Falcons scored 12 points in the final two seconds to stun the 49ers. SF is just 5-10-1 ATS as a favorites the past 2+ seasons, 3-7-1 ATS as a home favorite. During the same span, the Rams are 4-1 ATS as road underdogs. They're playing with 'revenge' from a 20-7 loss at LA and they're 8-4-1 ATS (10-3 SU) in the revenge role the past 2+ seasons, 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) when revenging a loss from a game in which they were favored. Grab the points but don't be surprised when LA wins outright. |
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12-21-19 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 46 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -108 | 127 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/SF UNDER the total. With both teams off high-scoring games, we're getting a generously high O/U number to work with. I believe it'll prove to be too high. Prior to getting lit up at Dallas last week, LA has allowed just 12 and seven points, in its previous two games. The Rams have still allowed 17 or fewer points in six of their last eight. The last time that they allowed more than 40, they bounced back and allowed just seven last time out. As for the 49ers, if you had the 'under' in their game last week, you suffered a very bad beat. What happened? The Falcons scored 12 points in the final two seconds. The final play was a bizarre one; I'll leave it at that. Anyway, the point is that the 49ers game did not play out to be high-scoring. When these teams met earlier, the score was 7-7 at halftime and finished at 20-7, after regulation. While we have to go back quite some time, we find the UNDER at a perfect 4-0 the past four times that the Rams were off a loss of 21 or more, when they'd been favored. Expect those stats to improve here. |
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12-21-19 | Central Michigan v. San Diego State OVER 41 | Top | 11-48 | Win | 100 | 96 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on CMU/SDSU OVER the total. The Aztecs were an 'under' team this season which has led to a very low O/U line for Saturday's game, currently the lowest of the bowls, in fact. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. While SDSU may have played low-scoring games, the Chippewas saw their games average a healthy 58.7 points on the season. The Chippewas personally scored 45 or more in three of their last four and 38 or more in five of their last seven. (They got at least 20 in all seven.) Over the years, the OVER is 2-0 when the Aztecs have been neutral field favorites of seven or fewer points. Also, the Chippewas have seen the OVER go 2-0 over the years, when playing a game with an O/U line of 42 or less. Looking at recent New Mexico Bowl scores and we find the last four have all produced a minimum of 43 points. They had scores of 52-13, 31-28, 23-20 and 45-37. This one also proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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12-21-19 | Texans v. Bucs +2.5 | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA. The Texans are off a big divisional win over the Titans, at Tennessee. That was a pivotal game and many bettors were part of it, one way or another. Therefore, they all know that Houston pulled off the minor upset. Now, many of those same bettors will see lowly Tampa, a team which will not be making the playoffs and which is without one of its most recognizable weapons (receiver Evans) and they'll assume another win for the Texans. You know what they say about assuming things though. The Bucs may not be going to the playoffs but they're quietly as hot as any team in football. Even when losing, this team was playing hard. Now, they've figured out how to win and are off four straight victories. They've scored 38 points in b2b games; Evans didn't play in the most recent. All Winston has done is become the first QB in history to throw for more than 450 yards in b2b games. The Texans are 0-4 SU/ATS their last four, when off an "upset win." They're also 0-5 ATS when playing their previous game on the road. The last time that they played the second of b2b road games, they lost 41-7. The Bucs will be looking to make a statement. Expect them to do so. |
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12-20-19 | Kent State v. Utah State -7 | Top | 51-41 | Loss | -109 | 84 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH State. While the Golden Flashes went on a nice run to get here, I believe that there's a class difference between these teams. The Aggies arguably underachieved this season but this is there chance to show everyone they're better than what we saw from them in the reg. season. They played in the tougher conference and their more difficult schedule will serve them well here. Despite the more difficult conference, the Aggies scored more points and compiled more yards, while allowing fewer points and fewer yards. Kent State was fortunate in the turnover department but thats not something that can be relied on consistently. With an O/U line in the mid-high 60s, this should be a high-scoring game. That suits the Aggies fine. They're 17-8 ATS their last 25, when the O/U line was set at 63 or higher. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win here. |
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12-16-19 | Colts v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 171 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indianapolis/New Orleans UNDER the total. Both teams are off high-scoring games which has helped in giving us a generously high O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too high. While the numbers took a bit of a hit last week, both these defenses are still in the top half of the league in terms of yards allowed per game. Both offenses are going to run the ball a alot, particularly the Colts, who rank #5 in the league, entering the weekend, in terms of rushing attempts per game. They run the ball 30.4 times per game. Of course, that'll help to keep the clock moving while hopefully keeping the more potent Saints offense on the sidelines. With the Colts off three consecutive losses, its worth noting that the UNDER is 6-1 the last seven times that they'd lost their previous three. The UNDER is 18-7 the past 25 times (6-1 L7) that the Saints had scored 30 or more in their previous game. When they'd scored 35 or more their previous game, the UNDER is 7-2. Expect those stats to improve Monday night. |
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12-15-19 | Rams v. Cowboys +1 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 105 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. The Cowboys opened as favorites here but money came in on the Rams and now its LA which is favored. While I respect the Rams, I believe that move is providing us with excellent value on what is going to be an extremely determined Dallas team. Obviously, the Cowboys would love to avenge last year's playoff loss. This game is about more than that though. The Cowboys need to win the NFC East to get the playoffs and the defending division champs know they're going to need this game to accomplish that feat. The Rams know they need this one every bit as much, which is going to make for a good game. Playing at home and playing with extra preparation time (Cowboys are 4-1 SU/ATS their last five, off a Thursday game) is going to give Dallas the edge though. You'll hear a lot about the Cowboys not beating good teams so far this season. That changes here. Backs against the wall, ook for the Cowboys to bounce back with their best effort of the season, improving to 7-1 ATS the past eight times that they'd lost three of their previous four games. |
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12-15-19 | Bears v. Packers OVER 41 | 13-21 | Loss | -107 | 120 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Chicago/GB OVER the total. This is a low O/U number (it was 46.5 for the first meeting this season) and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Bears have quietly been scoring more points of late. Three weeks ago, they scored a modest 19 against the Giants. Two weeks ago, they improved on that by scoring 24, at Detroit. Last Thursday, they were better still, dropping 31 on Dallas. While the Packers managed only 20 last time out, they scored 31 in their previous game. They average a healthy 26.3 ppg (399 ypg) here at Lambeau. Visiting teams have averaged 20.4 ppg here. Both teams won at home in their last game. The OVER is 2-1 when the Bears were off a home win and 4-1 when the Packers were off a home win. Expect those stats to improve as this one finds its way above the low number. |
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12-15-19 | Patriots v. Bengals OVER 40.5 | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 97 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on New England/Cincinnati OVER the total. This is a low O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. After several fairly low-scoring games, I believe Brady and the Pats' offense will be looking to "get healthy" with a big offensive game. Facing a Bengal team which allows an average of 27.5 ppg and 422.5 ypg, here at home, should help. As for the Bengals, with Dalton back behind center, they've scored 22 and 19 points the past two weeks. Look for the OVER to move to 4-2-1 in Bengal home games. |
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12-15-19 | Seahawks v. Panthers UNDER 48.5 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Seattle/Carolina UNDER the total. Admittedly, the Carolina defense was pretty lousy at Atlanta last week. This unit still has pride though and I expect a visit from the Seahawks to bring out their best. The Rams cooled off Seattle last week. The Hawks managed only 12 points. Thats the second straight road game where Seattle has scored 17 or less. They've scored 27 or less in four straight on the road. The Hawks have seen the UNDER go 7-1 the past eight times that they were listed as road favorites, a 3-0 UNDER mark in that role this season. The UNDER is 2-0 the last couple of timeds that they were off a double-digit loss and 3-0 the last few times that they'd given up 25 or more in b2b games. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the final score staying beneath the generously high number. |
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12-14-19 | Army v. Navy OVER 40.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -109 | 119 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing Army/Navy OVER the total. This O/U number fell when it came out and we're now working with a nice low total. While I'm aware these teams have been involved in low-scoring games of late, I believe that it'll prove to be far too low. Navy scored 56 all by itself last time out. That was the second time in four game that the Midshipmen reached that number. They've scored 35 or more in six of their past seven (averaging 39.3 on the season) and could realistically score enough by themselves to send this one OVER the number. They won't need to though; the Knights have been scoring even more points than them lately. In its last three games, Army has scored 63, 47 and 31, while averaging 575 yards of offense in those games. Last time out, the Knights allowed 52 against Hawaii. All things considered, this number is too low. |
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12-12-19 | Jets +15.5 v. Ravens | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -123 | 56 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW YORK. While I lost with the Jets this past Sunday, I always do my best to wipe the slate clean and look at each game without bias from preivous plays, won or lost. In this case, though it surely didn't help me Sunday as they failed to cover, I like the fact that the Jets eked out the SU win. That showed heart and will provide confidence and positive momentum for this one. They've quietly won four of five and nobody has beaten them by more than 16 since the Pats did so back in October. Of course, the Ravens have looked very impressive all season. A road game against a tough Buffalo team can take a toll though and they're being asked to cover an awful big number here, on a short week. Their last two games have both been decided by seven or less. The Ravens have thrived on the road, at the betting window, but they're actually only 2-4 ATS when listed as the home team. Going back further finds them at an ugly 8-15 ATS in home games, the past 2+ seasons. Look for this one to be closer than many will be expecting and grab the generous points. |
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12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles -8 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 175 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Both of these teams have seen better days. The Eagles have dropped three straight, most recently a humiliating loss against lowly Miami. The Giants, meanwhile, haven't won in months. Playing at home, knowing they will face these same Giants at New York in 20 more days, I expect the Eagles to be the team which bounces back. As bad as Eagles' fans might feel, keep in mind that the first two of their three losses came against the Patriots and the Seahawks, a pair of playoff teams capable of meeting in the Super Bowl. Both losses were close. So, in hindsight, a letdown against the Dolphins wasn't that shocking. Here, however, they're facing a hated division rival and there won't be any letdown. The Eagles' defense allows 18 points and 270.5 yards here at home. The Giants, on the other hand, allow 30.8 ppg and 404 ypg on the road. Expect that far superior defense to be the difference, the Eagles bouncing back with a double-digit win. |
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12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. The Seahawks have obviously been on a very impressive run. I feel that it comes to a temporary halt tonight though. The Rams got embarrassed, on National TV, by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, two weeks ago. Tonight, they get a chance to show the world that they're better than that. They've already bounced back by blowing out Arizona last week, providing some positive momentum here. Note that the Rams are 9-1 SU their last 10, off a division win and 5-0 SU their last five off a divisional win of 21 or more. True, they're up against another special QB in Wilson. Seattle brings out the best in this LA team though. The Rams gave the Hawks all they could handle at Seattle, losing by one. Prior to that, they'd beaten them three straight times. In addition to playing at home, the Rams have the schedule in their favor; the Hawks are playing on a short week. While the Hawks obviously want to win, the Rams need to. As Gurley noted, "we're scratching our way in." Look for them to find a way. |
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12-08-19 | Chargers v. Jaguars UNDER 43 | 45-10 | Loss | -105 | 147 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA/Jacksonville UNDER the total. The last meeting between these teams had an O/U line of 40.5 and finished with just 37 points. We're working with a higher number here, which I feel is offering plenty of value. While LA saw Sunday's game finish above the total, it was no thanks to its offense, nor was it due to poor defense. The Chargers managed 20 points, in a 23-20 loss at Denver. Really, the defense played better than the score indicated as the Broncos had just 84 yards on the ground and only 134 through the air. As for the Jags, they scored only 11 points against Tampa, the third time in four games they've been held to less than 14. The UNDER is 6-2 the past eight times that the Chargers were off a road loss and that includes a 3-0 UNDER mark when that road loss came against a division rival. The last time that the Chargers played their second straight away from LA, the game finished with 33 points. Expect another low-scoring affair. |
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12-08-19 | Colts v. Bucs UNDER 47.5 | 35-38 | Loss | -105 | 144 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Tampa/Indianapolis UNDER the total. The Bucs' saw their 'over' streak finally come to an end. Facing the offensively challenged Colts, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon. Banged-up on offense, the Colts have scored 17 points in each of their last two games and 17 or less in four of their past six. Note that the UNDER is 5-2 the past seven times that the Colts played a road game with an O/U line in between 45.5 and 49 points. The Bucs' defense was very stingy last time out. They kept the Jags scoreless much of the way and only ended up allowing 11 points. Expect them to build off that performance, leading to the UNDER improving to 8-4 the past 12 times that Tampa was a home favorite of seven or less. |
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12-08-19 | Dolphins v. Jets -5.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on the NEW YORK JETS. The Dolphins already beat the Jets. Last week, they upset the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Jets lost against the previously winless Bengals. Many will look at all that and see this as a no-brainer to take the points. Football is a funny game though; I have the Jets winning by double-digits. Neither offense has been good but the Jets have been slightly better, in terms of ppg. More importantly, they've been much better, in terms of points allowed. The Jets allow 23.3 ppg (20.8 at home) while the Dolphins allow 31.4. Over their past three games, Miami opponents are averaging 36.3 ppg and 425.7 ypg. The Jets, on the other hand, have allowed an average of 14.0 ppg and 236.7 ypg, their last three. The Dolphins are 7-13 ATS their last 20 as road underdogs and that includes a 1-5 ATS mark their last six as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. They're 0-3 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a game they won SU where they were a home underdog of seven or more points. During that span, the Jets were 2-0 ATS when off a loss as a road favorite. Lay the points, its payback time. |
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12-08-19 | Ravens v. Bills +6 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. Both these teams are having excellent season. However, the Ravens, thanks to Lamar Jackson's remarkable numbers, seem to be getting a lot more credit/respect than the Bills. Indeed, while the Ravens are 10-2 the Bills are 9-3. Yet, the Bills are nearly a touchdown underdog, at home. Thats too much, in my opinion. The Bills are 4-1 their last five, holding all five of those opponents to 20 or fewer points. The one loss came by just three. In addition to having the venue in their favor, the Bills have had extra time to prepare, as they played on Thansgiving. The Ravens are off an extremely hard fought 3-point win against SF. Expect them to have their hands full once again, the Bills earning AT LEAST a cover and improving to 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were home underdogs of seven or fewer points. |
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12-07-19 | Wisconsin +17 v. Ohio State | Top | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 148 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. I won with the 'under' when the Buckeyes beat the Badgers earlier in the season. It was only 10-0 at halftime before getting a bit dicey in the second half. The Buckeyes won 38-10. That was at Columbus though and now the game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium, at Indianapolis. Yet, the Buckeyes opened as even bigger favorites for this one than they closed as for the first game. Thats not giving much respect to the Badgers and its offering us excellent value. Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor had this to say: "Very motivated. I know my team will try to lean on me to make plays. I have to make sure I'm ready this week." With Taylor bouncing back with a much better effort than he had in the first game, look for the Badgers to improve to 3-0 ATS the past three times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 21 or more points. |
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12-07-19 | Georgia v. LSU UNDER 55 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 101 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/LSU UNDER the total. When these teams met last year, the O/U line was 50 and they combined for 52. We're working with a little higher number here, which I feel is providing excellent value. With all due respect to Alabama, this is the best defense that LSU will have seen. Indeed, the Bulldogs have one of the best defenses in the entire nation. They allow 10.4 ppg (#2 in the country) and 257.1 ypg, #4 in the country. Seven of the Bulldogs' eight SEC games stayed below the number. LSU can also be pretty stingy. Just ask the Aggies. Last week, the Tigers held Texas A&M to seven points and a measly 169 total yards. Speaking of that blowout, the Tigers have seen the UNDER go 9-3 when off a double-digit conference win and they've got a 4-1 UNDER mark when off b2b double-digit conf. wins. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon, as points prove hard to come by the entire way. |
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12-07-19 | Cincinnati v. Memphis OVER 57.5 | 24-29 | Loss | -109 | 100 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Cincy/Memphis OVER the total. These teams just faced each other. The O/U line was 60 and they combined for 58. That was a tough loss for 'over' bettors though, as they already had 37 by halftime. This one should see the scoring continue the entire way. Prior to scoring "only" 34 in last week's game, Memphis had scored 47, 42, 54, 45 and 49 points in its previous five games. The Bearcats scored 46 and 48 in their first two November games. So, they can put up big numbers, too. They know they'll need to here. Memphis conference games are averaging 69.2 ppg on the season. Look for both teams to trade points, the OVER improving to 5-1 when the Tigers were off a home win. |
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12-07-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -8.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -109 | 97 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. The Bears were up 31-10 at halftime in the first meeting and they still couldn't win. Having squandered that opportunity, they won't get another one. Prior to that 34-31 comeback thriller, the Sooners' last win against the Bears came by 33 points. I believe that there's still a talent difference. The earlier meeting and Baylor's big win againt Kansas have helped us by keeping the line in single digits. Remember, the Sooners were a -10.5 point favorite for the first meeting and that was at Baylor. Off an 18-point win at OSU to close out the season, look for the Sooners to get off to a much better start in this one, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way and improving to 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU) the past eight times that they were off a double-digit road win. |
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12-06-19 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 48 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -115 | 82 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Oregon/Utah UNDER the total. The days of the Pac-12 featuring wide open high-scoring games are largely gone. Remember the Ducks of a few years back? It seemed like they always getting involved in high-scoring games. Times have changed. The Ducks check in off a 24-10 win. They've held four of their last eight opponents to 10 or fewer points. On the season, they're allowing an average of 15.7 ppg. The Utes? They're even stingier. They allow a mere 11.2 ppg. Thats the third best mark in the country behind Clemson (10.1) and Georgia (10.4). The 241.6 yards allowed per game ranks #3, behind Ohio State and Clemson. They've allowed seven or fewer points in five of their last seven games. The UNDER is 8-3 when the Ducks have been underdogs the past 2+ seasons, a 2-0 UNDER mark when they've been underdogs on a neutral field. With points proving hard to come by, expect those stats to improve Friday night. |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears OVER 42 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 79 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Chicago OVER the total. This is a low O/U number and I believe it'll prove to be low. While I respect both defenses, neither is unbeatable. Last game, the Bears gave up 20 to Detroit with the Lions using their third string QB. They'll face a far more dangerous offense here. The Cowboys, meanwhile, gave up 26 later in the same day. They've given up 26 or more in three of their past four. Having lost that game against the Bills, note that the OVER is 5-1 the past six times that the Cowboys were off a loss as a home favorite. During that span, the Bears, who failed to cover the closing line on Thanksgiving, have seen the OVER go 3-0 when off a SU victory in which they failed to cover. With Dallas games against fellow NFC opponents averaging 50 points this season, look for the final combined score to find its way above the relatively low number. |
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12-01-19 | Patriots v. Texans +3.5 | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 52 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. Recent meetings between these teams have been at Foxboro. The last two were both very close, New England winning by seven and three points. Now, the Texans get to face them here at Houston. I expect that to make all the difference. In addition to playing at home, I like that the Texans have had some extra time to prepare. Their last game was on a Thursday; they're 2-0 ATS off a Thursday game, the past couple of seasons. Speaking of that Thursday game, I like the fact that the Texans were able to eke out a win. Note that they're a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a game where they won but didn't cover. The Texans haven't lost here since September. In what should be another close one, I'll happily take the points. However, I expect the Texans to bring their A game and win outright. |
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12-01-19 | Bucs v. Jaguars UNDER 47.5 | 28-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Jacksonville/Tampa UNDER the total. Tampa has been an 'over' team for quite a few weeks which has led to a generously high O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too high. Keep in mind that Jags' "home" games are averaging only 38.9 points this season. Both these "instate rivals" will view this as a winnable game; they should be playing to win, rather than throwing caution to the wind due to the fact that they're both 4-7. The Jags' offense has really struggled, they've scored an average of only 12 points the past three games. Look for the UNDER to improve to 10-5-1 the past couple of seasons, when the Jags played a game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. |
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12-01-19 | 49ers v. Ravens UNDER 46 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 44 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baltimore/SF UNDER the total. When playing on an 'under,' I look for strong defenses and/or teams which are going to run the ball a lot. We've got both for this game. These teams rank #1 and #2 in the entire NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game. A heavy dose of the run will keep the clock moving. Obviously, Lamar Jackson is having a special season. He's up against a special SF defense here though. The 49ers are #1 in the NFL in yards allowed per game and second, behind only New England, in terms of points allowed per game. Also, the Ravens defense has quietly flown under the radar, Jackson stealing all the spotlight. They rank 5th in the NFL, in terms of points allowed per game. The 49ers are going to want to run the ball but the Ravens allow the third fewest rushing yards per game. The 49ers held the Packers to eight points last game while Ravens limited the Rams to six. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tennessee/Indianapolis UNDER the total. When playing on an 'under,' I look for strong defenses and/or teams which are going to run the ball a lot. The Colts rank #3 in the entire NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game. That hasn't helped them much though, as they've scored 17 or fewer points in three of their past five games. Still, with a banged up offense, they don't have much choice. While the Titans are only #13 in rushing attempts per game, they featured an extra heavy dose of the run last week. With that having worked out so well for them, I expect them to really emphasize running the ball. Both teams rank in the top 12 in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game. However, they're only #16 and #17 in terms of points scored per game. The earlier meeting was low-scoring, having produced just 36 points. The Colts have seen the UNDER go 10-3 off a road loss, 0-3 when off a road loss within the division. Expect those stats to improve Sunday afternoon. |
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11-30-19 | North Carolina v. NC State +11.5 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on NC STATE. Though they didn't win, I like the effort the Wolfpack showed in battling back against G-Tech last game. (They're 7-2 SU/ATS over the years off a road loss of three or less.) Obviously, they're going to be fired up to host their instate rival. With the line having risen to double-digits, I believe we're getting outstanding value. Note that the Tar Heels are only 4-7-1 ATS as favorites the past couple of seasons. I like the fact that NC State has had a couple of extra days to prepare; their last game came on a Thursday. The Wolfpack won by six at North Carolina last year and they beat the Heels by 12 here the previous year. UNC might find a way to win this year but if they do, its NOT going to be easy. Grab the points. |
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11-30-19 | Wisconsin -2.5 v. Minnesota | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 122 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Gophers were able to handle Northwestern last week but I expect them to have a much tougher time with Wisconsin. The Badgers are playing their best football; they're off three straight wins, each coming by progressively a bigger margin. Note that the Badgers are 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) their last 11 as road favorites. While the Gophers do deserve some credit for the Penn State win, they've avoided the likes of Ohio State and Michigan, the top two teams in the East. Now, in my opinion, they'll be facing the top team from the West. Both teams average about the same number of points. Minnesota averages 35.9 while Wisconsin averages 35.5. However, the Badgers have a big advantage on the other side of the ball; they're allowing 14.4 ppg compared to 21 ppg allowed by the Gophers. The Badgers haven't forgotten last year's upset. Now, its payback time. |
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11-30-19 | Clemson v. South Carolina +27.5 | 38-3 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. After yesterday, Clemson already knows it will play Virginia in the ACC Title game. With that game on deck and possibly bigger ones to follow, the Tigers could easily get looking past South Carolina. Either way, I expect them to have their hands full against what will be a determined Gamecocks team. The line has gone up from its opener, providing some additional value with the home underdog. Last year, despite the game being played at Clemson, the Tigers were laying "only" -25. (South Carolina covered in a 21-point loss) Note that the Tigers are just 2-3 ATS the past five times that they were favored on the road, in the -21.5 to -28 range. During the same stretch, the Gamecocks are 9-3 ATS as home underdogs of 14 or more points, 2-0 ATS as home underdogs in the +21.5 to +28 range. Its been years since anyone beat South Carolina by more than 24. I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-29-19 | Washington State v. Washington UNDER 64 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 70 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Washington State UNDER the total. Last year's game had an O/U line of 50 and produced only 43 points. The previous year, these teams combined for 55 points. That O/U line was also 50. Here, however, we're working with an extra couple of touchdowns, as this is a significantly higher O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The Huskies' last two games had scores of 19-7 and 20-14. Of course, the Cougars' last couple of games were much higher-scoring. However, the UNDER is 3-0 the past couple of seasons when they were off b2b games where they scored 42 or more points and 4-1 when they were off a game where they both scored and allowed 30 or more. With the UNDER also a perfect 5-0 the past five times that the Huskies had failed to cover three of their previous four, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-29-19 | Boise State v. Colorado State +14 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on CSU. This line has risen from its opener and I believe its providing us with excellent value on the home underdog. The Broncos were favored by 6.5 points their last visit here, winning by seven. You may remember that one, the Broncos were undefeated at the time but the Rams gave them a real scare, leading 35-17 at halftime. While the Broncos could be looking ahead to bigger things to come, the Rams will honor 13 seniors before the game, their last of the season. The weather is likely going to be ugly; as of Wednesday that they had 100 workers in their shoveling snow. That may well favor what is going to be a determined home team. Grab the points. |
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11-29-19 | Iowa v. Nebraska +6 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEBRASKA. While the Huskers have indeed have a tough year, I believe that they're offering excellent value Friday afternoon. Last year's game, at Iowa, was decided by just three points. Speaking of close games, the Hawkeyes have seen six of their past seven games decided by single-digits, five of those decided by seven or less. With the O/U line in the mid 40s, note that Iowa is 0-5 ATS its last five road games with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. The Huskers got some much needed confidence last time out as they hammered Maryland by a 54-7 score. They can do a lot to rid the bad taste of the season by winning here. Grab the points. |
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11-29-19 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia +3 | Top | 30-39 | Win | 100 | 66 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. I successfully backed the Hokies when these teams met last Black Friday. The Cavs were -5.5 point favorites but the Hokies won outright by a field goal. This time, its the Hokies who are favored. Once again, I'll be backing the underdog. While I do expect the Cavs to win outright, having an extra field goal to work with, in a game which could well be decided by a field goal or less, is a comforting feeling. Off three straight wins, the Cavs come in full of confidence. Last time out, they hammered Liberty 55-27, a game which saw them rush for a season high 227 yards. It was the most points they scored in a game since 2004. While the Hokies are off b2b blowout wins, both in shutout fashion, its worth noting that they're only 1-3 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b wins of 21 or more points. The Cavs, meanwhile, are 5-0-1 ATS after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their previous game. Expect at least another cover Friday afternoon. |
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11-28-19 | Saints v. Falcons +7 | Top | 26-18 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. While I successfully played against the Falcons last game, I believe that a primetime Thanksgiving game, at home, against the Saints, will bring out their best. Indeed, this is as big as it gets for them, as the playoffs are out of the question. Having already won at New Orleans, they know they can play with these guys. That was no fluke either; the Falcons won 26-9, less than three weeks ago. I expect this one to be closer. Games between these teams, here at Atlanta, almost always are. In fact, 10 straight meetings between these teams, here at Atlanta, have been decided by 10 or fewer points. Nine of those 10 were decided by six or less. If you'd been getting +6.5 or +7 with the Falcons in each of those games, you'd be a perfect 10-0. The Saints saw their most recent game decided by a field goal. Look for this one to also come down to the wire, the Falcons bringing their best game and improving to 12-4 ATS their last 16 Thursday games. |
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11-28-19 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 58 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Mississippi State / Ole Miss OVER the total. Ole Miss gave up 58 points last game, scoring 37. In their previous game, the Rebels scored 45 points. In their last two games against teams that weren't Alabama, the Bulldogs have scored 54 and 45 points. The last meeting between these teams here produced 59 points but the O/U line was in the mid 60s. We're working with a much lower number here, which is providing excellent value. The Rebels have seen the OVER go 7-1 the past eight times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. That includes a 2-0 OVER mark when playing on the road with an O/U line in that range. With both teams successfully moving the ball, expect those stats to improve Thursday night. |
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11-28-19 | Bears v. Lions OVER 38.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 78 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Chicago/Detroit OVER the total. Though its true both teams have had issues scoring, I believe that this total will prove to be too low. Note that Chicago's last couple of visits here had O/U lines of 43 and 44. The Lions have quietly seen the OVER go 4-1 at home this season. The Bears beat the Giants last week but didn't quite beat the closing line. Thats a situation (Bears winning but not covering as a favorite) which has happened twice the past couple of seasons. In both cases, their next game finished above the number. After they eked out a 2-point win at Denver, a game where they closed as -3 point favorites, the Bears' next game produced 46 points. Last season, after winning but not covering against Arizona, the Bears' next game produced 58 points. Interesting, in both cases, the game they won but didn't cover had identical 16-14 scores. Last week's (19-14) wasn't far off. Look for that pattern to continue, as Thursday's early game proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +3.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -115 | 103 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. The Ravens have certainly been on an impressive run. However, I feel that the defending NFC champs aren't getting nearly enough respect. The Rams have the weapons on offense but its their defense which has been dominant of late. Since acquiring Jaylen Ramsey, they've held four straight opponents to 17 or less and three of those finished with 10 or less. Ramsey had this to say: "Hopefully, we go out there, we set the tone, we play a good game and we let the world know who the L.A. Rams are." Last time out, LA allowed just seven points. The Rams, 10-2 their last 12 against AFC teams, are 3-1 ATS the last four, after allowing 17 or fewer points in each of their last three games. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 1-3 ATS after allowing nine or less points. The Ravens are also just 1-5 ATS the past six, after covering in four or five of their previous six games. While I like LA to win outright, I'm happy to grab the points. |
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11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | Top | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on SF. These teams met last October, at Lambeau. The Packers were laying -9.5 points but the 49ers gave them all they could handle. SF took a 24-20 lead into halftime and GB eventually won 33-30, hitting a field goal as time expired. The 49ers have gotten a lot better since then though and now they're playing at home. I expect them to make a statement on National TV, showing the world that they are indeed for real. While Rodgers may be from California, the Pack lost 26-11 the last time that they played in this state. The Pack are just 6-13-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were off an ATS win. The Pack outscore teams by a 21.5 to 19.2 margin on the road, the 49ers outscore teams by a dominant 33.2 to 17.8 margin at home. Lay the points. |
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11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 48 | Top | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on GB/SF UNDER the total. The 49ers allow just 15.5 ppg and 253.8 ypg. Only the Patriots have been stingier. The Pack haven't been quite that dominant defensively. However, their 20.5 ppg allowed still ranks in the top half of the NFL. Nobody has scored more than 26 against them since September and last time out, they allowed just 16. The Packers' last two games have produced 40 and 37 points. With a heavy dose of run helping to chew up the clock, look for the UNDER to improve to 6-2 when the 49ers were off a 2-game homestand. |
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11-24-19 | Dolphins v. Browns -10.5 | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 72 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. It took awhile but the Browns are finally starting to play up to their potential. After earning a hard-fought victory against Buffalo two games ago, they hammered the Steelers last time out. Stepping down in class to take on the lowly Dolphins, I expect them to make it three straight. When the Dolphins lose, as I expect them to today, the losses are typically blowouts. In fact, seven of the Dolphins' eight losses came by double-digits. The Browns are 8-4 ATS (10-2 SU) the past 12 times that the Browns were listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -14 range. They're 4-2 ATS their last six off a home win; I expect them to keep rolling with another double-digit victory Sunday afternoon. |
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11-24-19 | Bucs +4 v. Falcons | Top | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playng on TAMPA. Off six straight losses, the Falcons suddenly caught fire and won big in b2b road games. Now, they find themselves favored for the first time in more than a month. The Falcons are 0-2 ATS when laying points on the season and I expect them to have their hands full against what will be a determined Tampa team. True, the Bucs haven't won for a long time. They're still playing hard though and this is a game they know they can win. While I like the Bucs' chances of winning outright, having more than a field goal to work with could well come in handy, given the recent history between these rivals. The last three meetings have all been decided by five or less, two of them decided by three or less. The Bucs are 8-3 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after having lost six or seven, of their previous eight games. Grab the points. |