Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-15-21 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 7.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals are making a human sacrifice out of veteran lefty Mike Minor. They send him out there against the team that has been on a crusade of destruction against left-handed pitching since the beginning of last season only 6 days after he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings against them in Kansas City in a 9-3 loss. Minor’s current ERA/WHIP are 5.75/1.31. Sure, Chicago starter Carlos Rodon is enjoying a resurgent season with a 5-0 record, 0.58 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in five starts, most recently 6 innings of shutout ball vs. these Royals. But — but-but-but — those numbers are unsustainable and even if he has another blanking in him, this is a situation where you’re not gonna be surprised if the White Sox exceed the Total on their own because they average 8.7 runs per game when the opponent starts a lefty. |
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05-14-21 | Indians v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 3-7 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We came for the Side and Total last night, too much. We’ll stay, but for only the Total tonight after the two least-hitting MLB offenses combined for only 8 hits, 6 runs in Thursday’s Under. In recent seasons, the Indians’ organization has said, ‘No big contract for you!’ to Trevor Bauer, and ‘Same to you!’ to Mike Clevinger. Both had the word “ace” in front of their names. But the franchise pretty much knew what was waiting in the wings with last night’s starter, Zach (I Shall Pitch 8 Innings of Two-Hit Ball for the Under) Plesac and tonight’s, Aaron Civale. A mystery to the Mariners, who average the fewest hits per game against pitchers they’ve seen before, Civale’s current ERA and WHIP are 2.91 and 1.04. Chris isn’t Flexen his muscles much so far for Seattle (3.43 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) but as noted yesterday, the offenses average about 6.5 hits per game each. |
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05-14-21 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units You better believe we’re going right back to Coors Field on the Over side with this match-up after they scored 21 runs for us last night. Wade Miley is coming off a no-hitter. When a journeyman like Miley pitches a no-hitter, how can you not expect him to give up 6 runs in less than 5 innings next time out? Miley relies on curves and sliders that move a lot. In the Coors Field air, pitchers don’t get the kind of movement they need on those pitches. That’s why Coors Field scores are so high, and that’s why Miley, who has pitched for about 29 major league teams, more than likely will never be extended a contract by the Rockies. Meanwhile, German Marquez has been a disappointment with a 5.65 ERA and the Reds can hit. |
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05-14-21 | A's v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Matt Shoemaker does great against Detroit, the run-scoring team in what you call your Major League Baseball. Against most other teams, not so good. The former Angel meets a familiar foe tonight as the A’s hit town hot off a sweep in Fenway Park. Bang-zoom, we say. He’s already lost 7-0 and 8-6 games to Oakland and Seattle, two of the teams who chased him out of the AL West so that Minnesota would throw him a bone. Aren’t the A’s happy to meet up with him tonight as they have a nice, fat .905 OPS against Shoemaker from 98 at-bats? After Shoemaker, the Twins bullpen has guys ready to be as detrimental to their team as Shoemaker. Meanwhile, Oakland’s Frankie Montas: 5.50 ERA, 1.44 WHIP. This is on the heels of a 2020 season in which those numbers were 5.60, 1.51. We’re on a track here, Frankie, and it’s a less than ordinary one. |
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05-13-21 | Indians v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Mariners seem to have picked a good spot for the Major League debut of Logan Gilbert, their #1 pick in the 2018 draft. He has wowed ‘em in the minors following the requisite Tommy John surgery, and made a quickie appearance in spring training fanning four Angels in two innings. Did they start him in Dodger Stadium against the Dodgers? Of course not! They’re starting him against a lighter-hitting team in their own, larger, pitcher-friendly ballpark. Where they’ll have trouble separating on the scoreboard because they don’t hit much and Zach Plesac — who they’ve never faced — is pitching pretty well for the Indians. He hasn’t allowed a run to the Reds or White Sox in his last two starts, a 3-0 loss and 5-0 win. |
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05-13-21 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 11 | 8-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Rockies played a doubleheader yesterday against an opponent with the National League’s best bullpen, who started All-Star and Cy Young-quality guys Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. Also, the Padres had key hitters out because of the ol’ Virus Thing. It was a depleted lineup, with Fernando Tatis the most noteworthy absence. Tonight, after working through the bullpen in a doubleheader, they ask Chi-Chi Gonzalez to give them some innings against a heavier hitting lineup averaging 5.24 runs per game. The Reds are averaging only 3.59 runs per game on the road but ah, they haven’t played a game in Coors Field yet, or faced Chi-Chi, against whom opposing hitters often Cha-Cha around the basepaths. Their own starter, Luis Castillo, hasn’t been pitching like the guy everyone knew the last two seasons. He has a 1.63 WHIP and 6.42 ERA. Usually, pitching in Coors Field isn’t going to help a guy who’s going like that. Both of these bullpen can take a 7-0 lead and turn it into a 7-6 game faster than you can say, ‘Rob Dibble!’ |
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05-10-21 | Pacers v. Cavs OVER 230 | 111-102 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Cavaliers are the lowest scoring team in the NBA at 103.7 ppg. But everybody has been filling the net against the Pacers recently. Their saving grace is that they have plenty of scoring themselves. Without the inside presence of Myles Turner, most opponents have been getting to the hoop with no problem against matador Indiana defense. Cavaliers head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has targeted the low scoring output and having his players play at a quicker tempo, taking more shots, which has completely ruined their already ordinary-at-best defensive capabilities. |
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05-10-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9 | 1-4 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Red Sox have MLB’s #1 On-Base plus Slugging Percentage (a stat known as “OPS”). It’s .778, for those of you scoring at home. (Dodgers are #2 at .748.) Their On-Base percentage against tonight’s Orioles’ starter, Jorge Lopez, is .364. Their Slugging Percentage against him is .665. Add those two up for a Red Sox OPS of 1.029 against Lopez, considerably higher than their current MLB-best number, and it seems like Lopez can be pinata-like for the visiting bats. Which is a good thing for Boston because their starter, Martin Perez, has yet to earn a W in six starts and the Orioles’ On-Base and Slugging Percentages against him are .419 and .672, which adds up to a higher OPS than Boston vs. Lopez: 1.092. Yay-hoo. |
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05-09-21 | Pelicans v. Hornets UNDER 222.5 | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units No Zion Williamson, no Brandon Ingram, no problem playing defense for the Hornets, probably. The Ball Brothers — Lonzo for the visitor, LaMelo for the home team — will engage in a 3-point missing contest. Via some miracle, the Pelicans have the NBA’s second-best defensive efficiency rating in the last 15 games, a number that should remain in range with Devonte’ Graham, Gordon Hayward and probably Miles Bridges out for Charlotte. |
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05-09-21 | Stars v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In a season that started with turmoil with the eventual season-long absence of captain Jonathan Toews, the Blackhawks will end 2021 in sixth place, but the club is coming off the momentum of Thursday's 2-1 overtime win over the Hurricanes in Raleigh, N.C. Despite the absence of its captain, goaltending that ranks in the lower half of the league, a host of injuries and a ton of youth, Chicago can find some solace in the reemergence of right winger Alex DeBrincat. Consider that the over is 6-1-5 in Stars last 12 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game, 6-1-2 in Stars last 9 vs. a team with a losing record, and 11-2-3 in Stars last 16 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. In addition the over is 6-2-1 in Blackhawks last 9 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game and 5-2 in Blackhawks last 7 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. |
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05-09-21 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 6 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The wind is blowing in from left field at Wrigley Field today. The Man sees that and gets cute with a low Total, thinking, ‘Hey, nobody will hit any home runs.’ But he apparently has forgotten that Kyle Hendricks is a low-ball pitcher and doesn’t give up many home runs anyway, and that the Pirates can just put the bat on the ball in the freezing cold and bang out some ground ball hits, with a few errors on both sides, combined with the Cubs averaging more than 7 runs per game when the other side starts a lefthander. The Pirates’ lefthander Tyler Williams gave up 10 hits to the Cubs in Pittsburgh on Apr. 8 and five Cubbies are hitting between .300 and .750 against him. |
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05-09-21 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 7.5 | 9-3 | Win | 104 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As noted yesterday, and before that, the White Sox have made a habit of devouring left-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. That Royals rookie was fresh meat on their table last night, worth 8 runs in the first inning. Yowser. Mike Minor is certainly a much more experienced, crafty lefthander than young Daniel Lynch, who may never recover from last night’s shelling. But after going 12-8 and 14-10 in 2018 and 2019 for Texas, Minor was 0-5 with a 5.48 ERA for them last season before being traded to Oakland, where he was a spot reliever. So far he has a 5.23 ERA and 1.32 ERA for the Royals after six starts. Yawn. He exits three starts against the light-hitting Tigers, Pirates, Indians and his new team has now lost seven straight. But after being shut out twice in a row, then getting only 1 run last night, the Royals are due for better against Lucas Giolito, whose no-hitter form from last season gets farther in the rear-view. Seven different Royals have homered 8 times against Giolito in 132 at-bats. |
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05-08-21 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Off six innings of 4-hit, 1-run ball vs. the offensively suspect Brewers, Vince Velasquez seems destined for one of his 4-inning stints of giving up 6 hits and 4 runs. He’s allowed 5 home runs in his last 3 starts. The Braves can’t hit lefties very well but unless Velasquez has learned to throw with his left arm within the last five days, he’ll be throwing right-handed to an Atlanta lineup where Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Pablo Sandoval and Dansby Swanson are all hitting between .300 and .345 against him. Although Atlanta’s Ian Anderson recently duplicated his playoff-game whiz start against the Dodgers when he 1-hit the Cubs over 7 innings, he’s allowed 3 or 4 runs in three of his five starts, including to these Phillies on April 10 (5 hits, 4 runs, 2 homers in 5 1/3 innings). Neither bullpen sports a crack brigade of volunteer or professional firemen. |
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05-07-21 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The only team that Minnesota’s long, black-bearded mediocrity, Matt Shoemaker, pitches well against is the Tigers. He’s from the Detroit area. He must be angry at them for not drafting him. He went 6 innings against them at Detroit on April 5, giving up only 3 hits and 1 run. They’re 7-for-58 against him lifetime. But the Twins have lost his 5 starts since, and Shoemaker’s ERA and WHIP are 7.83 and 1.57. Even if he pitches his usual gem, note the score of his April 5 win vs. the Tigers: 15-6. These bullpens are horrible. Minnesota’s can’t strike anybody out and the closer they coveted, Alex Colome, has a 6.17 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Way to go, buddy. Meanwhile, the Tigers have lost all six games in which Tarik Skubal has appeared. His starts have not lasted longer than 5 innings and have mostly been shorter than that. HIs ERA and WHIP are 6.14 and 1.68, and the Tigers’ bullpen that figures to be used for at least half the game has the MLB-high ERA and WHIPs of 6.61 and 1.72. |
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05-06-21 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 211.5 | Top | 94-118 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day All reports indicate that neither Lebron James nor Dennis Schroeder will suit up for the Lakers tonight. Those are the two guys for whom the offense flows its best. They won a game vs. Denver the other night without them, when both teams scored less than 100 points. When you have good defenders, you give yourself a chance to win that way. Kahwi Leonard has been deferring to Clippers’ teammates lately while he plays with a nagging injury. |
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05-06-21 | Brewers v. Phillies UNDER 6.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s getaway day in Philadelphia and the two starters have good control to stay ahead of the hitters by getting the calls from the home plate umpire. Brandon Woodruff is going longer than ever so far this season — 6 innings in each of his last four starts, 7 innings before that. He has walked only 9 in 35 innings and has a 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, plus a good bullpen behind him. Zach Wheeler has pitched 8 innings of 1-hit ball, then 7 innings, in his last two starts. Both offenses are in the bottom third of MLB in Hits per Run. Strand those few baserunners you put on, guys! |
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05-05-21 | Rangers v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This isn’t Koufax-Marichal or Bieber-Cole. It’s Hyeon-Jong Yang in his Major League starting debut for Texas, against Lewis ‘Don’t Call Me Jim’ Thorpe. Yang spent 14 years in Korean baseball so he’s no kid, but still. Meanwhile, Thorpe is a lefty and the Rangers actually average about 7.0 runs per games when the other side starts a southpaw. That includes last night, when they got only 1 run in 5 1/3 innings against lefty JA Happ. But Happ had been pitching well and even if Yang does likewise, this Twins bullpen is a mess. They’re afraid to put Alex Colome in games now, with good reason. But they don’t have great options whoever they turn to. Thorpe’s most recent start lasted 4 innings and although he allowed only 2 runs in 4 innings, the Twins’ bullpen came in and did its usual lousy job in a 10-3 loss. |
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05-05-21 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -121 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Unit The Nationals beat Max Fried 10-4 last season. They beat him 7-6 about a month ago, getting 8 hits and 5 runs in 2 innings against him. Fried followed up that start with 4 innings of work against Miami in which he allowed 9 hits and 8 runs in a 14-8 loss. Hey, at least the Braves can hit their way back from deficits if Fried form holds in his first start since then. Atlanta has been horrible against left-handed pitching, but just fine against righties, which is Erick Fedde’s side and Fedde doesn’t seem to have a Hall of Fame tag hung on that arm. The Braves who’ve faced him have partied to a .384 Batting Average and .611 Slugging Percentage. |
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05-04-21 | Rangers v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 6-3 | Win | 102 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Former Twins righthander Kyle Gibson has been doing all right for the Rangers in his 2020 short season and so far in 2021. One would think that at first glance, coming back to Minnesota for the first time since they waved bye-bye to the guy would be a great spot for him to continue his resurgence. But this Twins lineup isn’t as bad as the team’s 11-16 record would indicate. They’ve been hitting the ball better lately and most of their struggles have been against left-handed pitching. There is also the matter of Gibson having been owned by Andrelton Simmons and Josh Donaldson, while they were members of other teams. Simmons is 7-for-20 with a double-triple and homer against Gibson, Donaldson even better at 6-for-13 with a double and 3 homers. JA Happ is off two very good outings for the Twins, but against light-hitting Detroit and Cleveland. The Rangers aren’t lighting up opposing pitchers in general but they’re hitting better than those other two offenses and have averaged better than 7 runs per outing in games started by opposing lefties. |
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05-04-21 | Tigers v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Although the Tigers are scoring only 2.7 runs per game, this could be a situation where the Red Sox go Over the total on their own. Guys who have faced him have clubbed Detroit starter Michael Fulmer: .500 for Xander Bogaerts, .500 for Marwin Gonzalez. Detroit’s bullpen ERA hasn’t gotten any lower since getting off to a 6.00+ start. It’s currently at 6.51 and Fulmer is no innings eater. He’s 3 or 4 innings, usually. |
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05-03-21 | Pacers v. Wizards OVER 245.5 | Top | 141-154 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day Normally we’d say that ‘What went up must come down’ after the Pacers scored 152 points vs. OKC in their last game. But coming down 28 points from 152 still leaves you with 124, and the opponent is the Wizards, known for their sizable defensive yields (and offensive stat-stuffing). The Stat Guys, Westbrook and Beal, see this as a personal challenge to get to 153 points. ‘Hey, these guys can score. We need to score 40 per quarter!’ Westbook figures to have a free pass to attack the hoop all night long in the absence of Myles Turner, Indiana’s defensive anchor/shot-blocker. First-season Pacers’ head coach Nate Bjorken has ruined their prior defensive systems as he is intent on installing and executing his ‘get it and go’ offensive system from the Raptors. Which is the main reason why they have a losing record. But everybody’s scoring average is up, so no harm done. |
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05-02-21 | Astros v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit You have to be a pretty good pitcher for your team to be a -130 favorite in Tampa, who is last year’s AL Champ. Cristian Javier of the Astros is becoming pretty good. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts, and only 8 hits in those 17 innings. Rich Hill usually gives 5 fine innings and gives way to the bullpen that started it all with the bullpen thing, which got them to the World Series last year. |
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05-02-21 | Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 7 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nats have won three straight, and are home with ace Max Scherzer on the mound while tied for first place. Big game! What could go wrong? Well, plenty but a pitcher of Scherzer’s caliber, as a relatively short favorite compared to where he’s typically been on the odds board, seems like a decent opportunity. Washington is down around Mets-Tigers level near the bottom of the ol’ Runs per Game chart (3.65), but hidden within that number is a Major-League high .312 Batting Average against left-handed pitching. Miami lefty Trevor Rogers has out-dueled Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes (impressive!) and Baltimore’s Bruce Zimmermann (not so impressive!) in his last two starts and has allowed 0 runs in three of his five. That’s nothing to sneeze at during allergy season but all we need is for the Nats to squeeze out one more run in a low-scoring game for us to be 2-0 in it. Scherzer is an ace off a bad outing in a strange ballpark (Toronto’s, in Dunedin, FL) coming home to friendly confines. He helped Washington win a couple of 1-0 games before that. |
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05-01-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A couple of struggling righthanders may re-discover their best stuff today. Then again, they may not. Last night’s Cubs/Reds went Over for us 8-6. Today, the Cubs starter enters with a 9.47 ERA and 2.21 WHIP after his first 19 innings as a member of this organization, his third in the last three seasons. Zach Davies has more walks (15) than strikeouts (14) and is pitching to the lineup that averages the most runs per game in its home ballpark, 7.77. Meanwhile, the Reds have lost four of Luis Castillo’s five starts. He allowed more hits than innings pitched in all four losses. His ERA and WHIP of 6.29 and 1.60 are nowhere near his career averages of 3.74 and 1.19. Reds’ bullpen ERA: 5.81 |
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04-30-21 | Royals v. Twins UNDER 8 | 1-9 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Michael Pineda of the Twins got unlucky last time out against the Pirates when the Twins continued their habit of throwing the ball all over the field, everywhere except to where it needed to go. But shortstop Andrelton Simmons is back on the field and their defense probably can’t continue to be that bad. Pineda has a 0.90 WHIP after four starts and Royals who have faced him are a mere 7 for 52 against Pineda. Brady Singer faced the Twins in three straight starts as a rookie. He did all right, especially for a rookie facing the same playoff-making lineup three times in a 10-day span. With that trial by fire under his belt he faces them for the first time in 2021, off 2-0 and 2-1 wins in which he pitched 13 innings and allowed only 5 hits and 1 run. |
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04-30-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs have awakened from their hitting slump and are tied with two other teams for best Hits per Run ratio in MLB, 1.57. One of the other two teams is the Reds, who return home to a ballpark in which they average 7.75 runs per game and are facing a starter who, while his short-sample 1021 numbers are better than in his last two seasons, still has much to prove as to whether or not he’ll ever achieve his old All-Star form. Meanwhile, the Cubs have 11 homers vs. left-handed pitchers, more than a bunch of teams with more at-bats against southpaws. Wind is blowing out to right-center. Up, up and away! |
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04-29-21 | Bucks v. Rockets UNDER 234 | 136-143 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units John Wall is out for the Rockets, so an inefficient offense with the worst three-point percentage in the NBA should probably get worse. The Bucks would figure to get a comfortable lead in this and with so few games remaining in the regular season, they should be looking to avoid getting into a track meet, play some defense because it will become more necessary in the post-season, and get that right instead of running up and down the floor trying to pile up as many points as possible, which would create the type of game from which a team would gain nothing from, other than a cheap W against a lousy team, which any decent team can accomplish. |
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04-29-21 | Cubs v. Braves OVER 9 | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves’ righthander Bryce Wilson was dropped out of the sky into a post-season game as a MLB-debuting rookie against the Dodgers last year and allowed 1 hit in 6 innings in an Atlanta win. So far, this looks to have been a one-hit wonder (get it? He allowed 1 hit, ‘one-hit wonder’? Ha-ha). Anyway, with 9 total innings pitched in two starts, Wilson has allowed 11 hits and 6 runs. These Cubs, and the Diamondbacks, each hit 2 home runs against him. The Cubs beat him 13-4 on April 18 and should be happy to see him again so soon. Cubs starter Adbert Alzoloay has pitched only against the Brewers so far this season. Three starts, three losses. The Braves have been a more efficient offense than Milwaukee’s. Despite big struggles against left-handed pitching (.137 batting average vs. southpaws, yikes!), Atlanta’s Hits Per Run ratio of 1.58 is #4 in MLB, behind Chicago’s #2 of 1.56 Hits per Run. |
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04-29-21 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 6 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Tigers have been the meekest American League offensive team against left-handed pitching, with a .182 batting average against them, On-Base Percentage of only .239. White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon followed up on his no-hitter with 5 innings of 3-hit, 2-run ball on the road at Cleveland. Not bad, considering the Indians were the team he no-hit and they’d just faced him six days prior. Rodon has allowed only 2 runs and 5 hits in three starts, which have totaled 19 innings. His White Sox teammates hit heavy against lefties, close to normal vs. righties. |
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04-28-21 | Nationals v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Steven Matz has been having just a high old time of it for his new team, Toronto. Four starts, four wins. a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Sign him up to start the All-Star game and begin engraving his name on the Cy Young Award, right? Well, not so fast, my friends. This National League refugee has been foolin’ American League teams. Washington is in the National League. They know this guy from being in the same NL East with him. They have driven Matz to many an ERA-inflating early exit. Speaking of early exits, we give you the Nationals’ Erikc Fedde, averaging less than 5 IP per start with an ERA of 5.55, WHIP of 1.47. Blue Jays are averaging 6.14 runs per game in their Florida ballpark. |
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04-28-21 | Reds v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sonny Gray has faced the Dodgers only once since coming to the National League. It was in April, 2019, and he threw 6 innings of 2-hit ball against them. Nice, but, even though it was only two seasons ago, there is much water under that bridge. The Dodgers have become a better-hitting team in the interim. Gray, meanwhile, tailed off badly in the latter part of 2020, made a late 2021 debut, and after two starts has a 7.88 ERA and 2.13 WHIP. He couldn’t complete 5 innings against Cleveland, then failed to make it out of the fourth inning at St. Louis. It’s a 1:10 pm, PT local start, in broad daylight throughout. No shadows to help. Nowhere to hide. That goes for Kershaw, too, who is who he is but it would not be a surprise if, given Gray’s most recent history and some Cincinnati bullpen meltdowns, L.A. went Over this total on their own. |
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04-27-21 | Nationals v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 5-9 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nationals ace Max Scherzer is pitching like Max Scherzer: three starts five days apart totaling 19 innings, only 9 hits, 1 run, 24-4 KK-BB. He and his teammates head Blue Jay way to play against Tampa-based Toronto batters who have combined for 6 hits in 56 at-bats against Scherzer. That’s an .066 Batting Average. It’s a good thing for them that they haven’t had to face Scherzer in every at-bat, or they’d have to find a new profession for a lot less money! Meanwhile, Toronto is turning Tyler Thornton into a reliever/opener. So far, so good with a 1.86 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings. Toronto’s bullpen has a 2.10 ERA, lowest in MLB, paired with a respectable fifth lowest WHIP of 1.12. Home pitchers will be tossing at the lineup with the worst Hits per Run ratio in MLB: 2.39 hits for every run scored by the Nationals. |
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04-27-21 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units You have to believe that Kenta is Maeda better stuff than the efforts that have produced a 6.11 ERA and 1.87 WHIP after four starts. He made 11 starts in his first season with the Twins and had an ERA of 2.70, WHIP of 0.75. There’s regressions, for sure, but this is too far the other way. The light-hitting Indians are a good lineup for him to get back on track against. But the Twins batters have gone cold against just about anybody and everybody, lefty, righty, young, old, doesn’t matter. In the one game Minnesota has managed to win in their last 13, they scored 2 runs. |
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04-26-21 | Marlins v. Brewers UNDER 6.5 | 8-0 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nobody’s been hitting Corbin Burnes well. The first to do it wouldn’t figure to be the Marlins, coming out of San Francisco off the red-eye after scoring 0, 3, 5, 3 runs in that series. Burnes has made four starts, all 6 innings, allowing 1, 1, 2 and 4 hits, a total of 1 run in 24 innings with 40-0 K-BB. That’s 0 walks, not a misprint. It’s 1-2-3 strikes you’re out!… 1-2-3 strikes you’re out! The bullpen behind Burnes is good. Miami starter Trevor Rogers is doing well in his own right: 4 starts, a total of 22 IP, with a 1.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, only 1 home run allowed. Not bad, kid. Rogers pitched 7 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball vs. Baltimore five days ago, needing only 82 pitches in a 3-0 win. The Yelich-less Brewers have never faced him at this level and are hitting a mere .222 vs. left-handed pitching. |
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04-26-21 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Royals’ Brad Keller has been having serious trouble early, failing to make it out of the second inning twice, and the fourth inning another time. He has allowed 16 hits and 16 runs in 12 inning pitched. Yow. The Tigers’ offensive woes have been at their worst against left-handed pitching. Keller is righthanded. On the opposite end of the trouble spectrum, the Tigers’ bullpen has an ERA of 6.11, WHIP of 1.59. The ERA is highest in MLB, the WHIP second-highest behind Colorado’s 1.61. |
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04-25-21 | Angels v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 56 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Units10* Total of the Month Right-hander Lance McCullers (1-1, 5.27 ERA) will start Sunday as the Astros pursue the series sweep. It will mark his first start since he allowed six runs on four hits and three walks with three strikeouts over 3 2/3 innings against the Detroit Tigers while battling an illness on April 14. McCullers had allowed a total of two earned runs with 13 strikeouts over his previous two starts. McCullers is 3-3 with a 3.21 ERA over 13 career starts against the Angels, posting 66 strikeouts over 70 innings. He failed to record an out in his most recent appearance against the Angels, allowing three runs on two hits and three walks in the Astros' 6-5 road loss on Sept. 4, 2020. Right-hander Dylan Bundy (0-2, 4.50) gets the start for the Angels in the series finale. He allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks with six strikeouts over five innings in his previous appearance, a 6-4 loss to the Texas Rangers on April 19. |
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04-25-21 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 6.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -121 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitchers: Baumgarner vs Smyly Madison Bumgarner pitched better than his typical 4 IP, 7 H, 6 R outing when the D-Backs beat the Nationals in his last start. But Washington is the least efficient offense in MLB. The Braves lineup figures to be more difficult for him. Ronald Acuna returned to it from injury Friday. Although the Braves are hitting only .182 vs. lefties, they have only 88 at-bats against them, third-fewest. A team scoring 5.88 runs per game in its home park, facing Bumgarner, should improve in the “Vs. Lefties” department today. Meanwhile, the Braves put Drew Smyly back out there after he missed a turn due to forearm inflammation. Hey, two starts is a lot for a poor guy with a one-year, $11 million contract to make without a rest! Southpaw Smyly had pitched 11 innings allowing 7 runs before this. Arizona has MLB’s best team OPS vs. lefties, .898. NOTE: DO NOT play if pitchers listed are different than actual |
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04-25-21 | Celtics v. Hornets UNDER 212 | Top | 104-125 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 12 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day While the Hornets have been able to score 60 and 66 points in one first half and one second half during the last week, followed up, and preceded, those halves with very sub-par halves. It’s all part of the ’16-point quarters’ that head coach James Borrego is on record as saying that he expects in the absence of some productive offensive players. They’ve slowed down the pace and have tightened up the defense to help make up for the scoring droughts. Given the way the Celtics have improved their own defense, expect a few of those scoring droughts for the home side this afternoon. |
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04-25-21 | Blue Jays v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day The Blue Jays got 3 runs off Tampa’s opener Brent Honeywell, Jr. yesterday, then Ryan Yarbrough gave them 5 2/3 innings of shutout relief, followed by 2 more innings of shutout relief from the finalizers. That’s the Rays’ bullpen people have come to expect, not the one that entered yesterday’s game with an ERA greater than 5.00. Today, they’re really getting creative, starting one of the kids they got from San Diego in the Blake Snell trade, 21-year-old Luis Patino. He’s a good one and by the time they figure him out, the righthander will be outta there, perhaps after only 3 innings. After that, the plan is to bring in lefty Josh Fleming, a second-year pitcher the Blue Jays got 2 hits and 0 runs against in 14 at-bats during his rookie season. Young mystery guns. Good thing the cross-town based Blue Jays are throwing their own stingy lefty, Hyun-Jin Ryu and his 1.04 WHIP, 21-2 K-BB in 24 innings. |
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04-24-21 | Marlins v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Day The Over is 4-1-1 in Marlins last 6 games as a road underdog, 11-4-1 in Marlins last 16 during game 3 of a series, and 19-7-1 in Marlins last 27 Saturday games. |
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04-24-21 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 6.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Ace vs. Ace. Sub-1.00 WHIP vs. sub-1.00 WHIP. That’s where you normally get your 1-0 or 2-1 ballgames. We’ll take 3-2, too. A 6:10 pm, ET start in Cleveland puts some shadows out there as a 10th fielder against the hitters. Bieber’s only start out of four that has gone Over the Total was in Cincinnati, against the heaviest-scoring home team in what you call your Major League Baseball. Cole’s four starts are also 1-3 OU, in which 7 of the 9 the runs in the game were scored by the Yankees against lousy Orioles pitchers Kremer, Plutko, Wells and LeBlanc. Even Jay Bruce got a home run that day. He hitting was so bad otherwise that he quit the game last week. Gave it up. Walked off. |
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04-24-21 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 0-2 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Cardinals batters who have faced him have made good contact against lefty Wade Miley of the Reds. They’re hitting .321 against him in 78 at-bats, and his K-BB against them is a mere 14-12. Nolan Arenado, Matt Carpenter, Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina, all .300 or better lifetime vs. Miley and the Cardinals are tagging lefthanded pitching in general pretty well so far with an .811 OPS. St. Louis starter John Gant has a lot of hair and a lot of walks: 11 of them in 14 innings over three starts. Ya’ can’t walk that many guys and expect to win in this league! He’s been able to somehow strand a lot of guys while accruing his lousy WHIP of 1.86, which doesn’t jive with his decent ERA of 3.21. |
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04-23-21 | Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 211 | Top | 102-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day Unrealistic for the Cavaliers to up and duplicate what they did against the Bulls the other night — scored 121 points. They average only 104.1 ppg, fewest in the NBA. They won 103-90 in Charlotte nine days ago. Opponents are onto the Hornets in the absence of key offensive players Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk. The latter isn’t really a consistent offensive threat, anyway. Head coach James Borrego is actually expecting these weak-butt 16 point quarters. The other day he said something like, ‘I have to find something for when we have those 16-point quarters…” Hey, guess what? After you have the 16-point quarter, it’s too late to find anything and you probably don’t have it, anyway. Since scoring only 90 in the loss vs. Cleveland, the Hornets have scored only 97 and 91 in defeats at New York and Chicago. |
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04-23-21 | Nationals v. Mets UNDER 7 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets are making us look smart by playing to their weak Hits per Run ratio of 2.33, failing to move runners around two nights in a row at Wrigley Field. Who do they come home to play against? The team with the only offense worse than them in that particular category (Nationals: 1 run scored for every 2.38 hits). Given that Jacob Degrom is pitching for the Mets, Washington figures for a only a few hits in the first place. He is pretty much who he is, coming out of a quality start in Coors Field (few can do that) after throwing 14 innings with 8 hits and 1 run allowed against Miami and Philadelphia. |
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04-23-21 | A's v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day Athletics’ left-hander Corey Irvin and Orioles’ right-hander Jorge Lopez aren’t headed for Cooperstown unless angels from above start guiding their every move. Irvin just pitched shutout ball over 6 innings in Detroit, a team that can’t hit left-handed pitching (worst average in what you call your Major League Baseball against lefties, .174). Today, the task is harder in a smaller ballpark against the Orioles’ lineup, not an All-Star collection of offensive talent but clearly better than Detroit’s, overall and against lefties. For his part, Lopez must pitch to the hottest team in baseball, lineup that has contributed to a current 11-game winning streak and is averaging better than 6 runs per game on the road. After getting 7 hits in their first 15 at-bats against Lopez with only 1 strikeout, the Oakland batters were probably thinking, ‘Can’t wait to face this guy again!’ |
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04-22-21 | Angels v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit MLB Total of the Day Right-hander Alex Cobb (1-0, 4.63 ERA) will start for the Angels today after having his previous start pushed back due to unspecified reasons. Cobb was initially slated to start on Sunday but that game was postponed after the Minnesota Twins had COVID-19 issues. Cobb last started on April 12, allowing three runs on four hits and one walk with 10 strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings in a 10-3 road win over the Kansas City Royals. He is 1-2 with a 7.63 ERA over three career starts against the Astros, whom he last faced on July 31, 2017, while with the Rays. Consider that the over is 19-8-1 in Angels last 28 games as an underdog. |
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04-22-21 | Diamondbacks v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 14-11 | Win | 100 | 1 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither of today’s starters qualifies as being close to an ace, you’d have to say. Each started against the other lineup in the teams’ series at Arizona recently. The Reds’ Hoffman threw 82 pitches in 4 1/3 innings, giving up 6 hits, 3 walks, 3 runs. The bullpen came in and did a Hoffman impersonation, allowing 5 runs in 3 2/3 innings. Arizona’s Taylor Widener has pitched shutout ball in 6-inning starts at Washington and San Diego, two lineups that are having serious problems scoring runs against anyone. in between, the Reds got 7 hits, 4 runs in 5 innings against him. The Reds’ 9 runs per game home offense was never going to continue to be that high, but they still lead MLB with 7.45 runs per home game. |
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04-21-21 | Hawks v. Knicks OVER 218 | Top | 127-137 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day The Hawks’ rotation is loaded with good-percentage three-point shooters around center Clint Capela, who should own his match-up against the Knicks’ Nerlens Noel if he can stay out of foul trouble. Good offensive players such as Bogdan Bodanovich, Lou Williams for Atlanta, and Derrick Rose of New York, have not played in either one, or both, of the meetings between the Hawks and Knicks so far, which ended with 221 points in January, 235 points in February. By our math, those numbers are larger than tonight’s total of 217.5. |
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04-21-21 | Astros v. Rockies OVER 10 | 3-6 | Loss | -112 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros recently had four guys out on account of fear, including Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. They returned last night. Unfortunately for them, they ran into the Jon Gray buzz saw. Today’s Rockies starter is a step down from that and unfortunately for him, Austin Gomber throws left-handed. The Astros are hitting .301 vs. left-handed pitching, #2 in MLB behind the White Sox’ .302. They have 239 at-bats against lefties, second-most in MLB, making it as valid a sample size as it can be. Astros starter Jose Urquidy hasn’t pitched much in Coors Field — to only 6 batters, one of them a pitcher. |
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04-20-21 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s basically the same concept as last night. A low-hit, low run righthander starts for the Brewers, opposed by a pretty good righthander for the Padres who has gone 11 up, 11 down against Milwaukee batters who have faced him. Like Joe Musgrove last night, who went 7 innings but got the loss in a low scoring game (3-1), the Padres’ Chris Paddack won’t be pitching to Christian Yelich in the heart of the Brewers’ batting order. He’s injured and out. Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes will be throwing to Fernando Tatis and his .118 batting average anchoring the heart of the Padres’ lineup. Burnes is doing his best Christy Matthewson impersonation with three 6-inning starts, allowing 2, 1 and 1 hit, a total of 0 walks and 30 Ks. Yowser. And yet, the Brewers have lost two of those games, 3-1 and 2-0. Hit the ball, why don’t you? Wait — not tonight. |
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04-20-21 | Wolves v. Kings OVER 237.5 | Top | 134-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NBA Total of the Day When two teams lazy with the defense (118.1 and 118.6 ppg allowed, #28 and #30 in a 30-team league) get together and the home team is #9 in scoring offense, and the road team is fully capable of scoring a lot of points when most of its best players are playing, and was able to score 116 vs. the Kings when they recently met in Minnesota, then getting cute with an Under doesn’t seem like the way to go. Sacramento center Richaun Holmes thinks that he should receive more attention for his defense, and maybe he’s right. But his ability to play it well enough hasn’t rubbed off on his teammates, and Holmes has missed the last four games anyway, and won’t play tonight. The one guy out of five who buys into defense ain’t there. |
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04-20-21 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 10-7 | Win | 101 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit MLB Total of the Year Even though Logan Webb had been placed on the injured list because of side effects from the COVID-19 vaccine, he's expected to start Tuesday. Webb (0-1, 4.76 earned run average) will be making his fourth appearance and his third start. Webb has never faced the Phillies. The Phillies will hand the ball to Zack Wheeler (1-2, 3.00 ERA), who will be making his fourth start. After a strong opening start, Wheeler has allowed 17 hits in the last two, both losses. In Wheeler's career against the Giants, he's 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA in seven starts. Consider that the Over is 12-5-1 in Phillies last 18 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. |
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04-19-21 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 6.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units His former team, the Pirates, beat Joe Musgrove one start after he pitched his no-hitter. But he pitched 4 innings of 1-run ball in that game, not bad at all. Musgrove was lifted for pinch-hitter after 81 pitches in that game because he’d been allowed to throw 121 during his no-hitter. He can keep up the good work against the Yelich-less Brewers lineup. Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff faces a tougher task than in his last two starts against the Cubs, in which he allowed only 4 hits in 13 innings with 14-1 K-BB. But that was nothing to sneeze at, eh? Both starters are backed by mighty fine bullpens, Milwaukee’s being better than it’s 4.57 ERA and the Padres with the #2 relief WHIP of 1.03 with an ERA of 2.41, the NL’s lowest. |
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04-19-21 | Spurs v. Pacers OVER 231 | Top | 109-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Day ‘We couldn’t get stops when we needed to’ has been a common statement made by an Indiana player in recent post-game laments. They can score and they’re not shy about putting up shots — an NBA-high 97.2 of them in their last five games, and both the Pacers and Spurs are in the top five in shot attempts per game for the season. Indiana played yesterday. Therefore, from the get-go, the rested and ready Spurs should come out with their younger legs and attack the Pacers’ relatively weak interior defense, an overrated part of Indiana’s game with Myles Turner’s blocks totals impressing a lot of people who don’t see the big picture. At the end of regulation in San Antonio, the teams were at 126-126. That’s 252 points, 21.5 more points than tonight’s total. |
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04-18-21 | Braves v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 13-4 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs are hitting .168 against right-handed pitching, too low to be believed as a level they’ll remain at but it is what it is right now. Their OPS of .585 is a heck of a lot lower than the #29 OPS rank of Colorado. So, go Bryce Wilson, go. The 23-year-old was called up in September last season (when he was 22), had nothing but 1- or 0-run starts including a playoff outing against the Dodgers in which he lasted 6 innings and gave up only 1 hit in a 10-2 victory when matched against Clayton Kershaw. The big stage didn’t get to him then, so an ESPN nationally televised game against a lineup that is essentially the opposite of the Dodgers should be a piece o’ cake, too. Kyle Hendricks is ol’ reliable for Chicago and has strung together season WHIPs of 1.08, 1.16, 0.98, 1.19, 1.15, 1.13, 1.00 for them prior to this season, in which his first start stunk and his second start was 6 innings of shutout ball. |
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04-17-21 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 213 | 96-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating; 4 Units The Bulls lost the most recent meeting with the Cavs 103-94 on March 24. Without Zach Lavine on the floor for the Bulls, the Cavaliers, whose 111.1 ppg allowed ranks #11 in scoring defense, have an easier time of it on that end of the floor. Last night, Chicago overcompensated in attempting to protect the paint and were deficient about getting out on Memphis’ three-point shooters. Live and learn, practice makes perfect, and these games are often practices. In Cleveland, Chicago faces an opponent that takes and makes the fewest three-pointers per game in the NBA. You don’t even have to get out after them much on the perimeter. They’re not going there often and when they do, their 33.8% make rate is #29 in a 30-team league. |
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04-17-21 | Pirates v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 1-7 | Push | 0 | 1 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units MLB Total of the Month Pittsburgh right-hander Trevor Cahill (0-1, 8.00 ERA) is scheduled to face Milwaukee left-hander Brett Anderson (1-1, 4.50 ERA). Consider that the over is 21-8-2 in Pirates last 31 during game 2 of a series, 34-15-2 in Pirates last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter, and 36-17-1 in Pirates last 54 road games vs. a left-handed starter. |
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04-16-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 11-6 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 9-6 Padres are going with a bullpen night to open this home series against the 11-2, first-place Dodgers and why not? Their relief crew has a 1.94 ERA so far, lowest in MLB, and they’ll have would-be aces Yu Darvish and Blake Snell starting for them at home on Saturday and Sunday. The Dodgers’ Walker Buehler gave up 3 solo homers to the Padres in one of his early 2020 starts, but those were the only 3 hits the Padres got in the 5 innings that Buehler pitched in the ballgame. The next time Buehler faced them, he went 4 innings, allowed 2 hits and 1 run and the Dodgers’ bullpen — no slouch itself — slammed the door shut for the next 5 innings of a 5-1 win. Buehler has a 0.83 WHIP, 0 walks from his two 2021 starts that went 6 innings apiece. |
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04-16-21 | Pacers v. Jazz OVER 232.5 | 111-119 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units After resting the three players mentioned in today’s Winning Points in the automatic home win against Oklahoma City on Wednesday night, the Jazz will show up with close to a full boat in front of their home fans, and not deprive them of points two games in a row. Utah scored only 22 points in the first quarter, 18 points in the fourth vs. OKC. Unacceptable. A repeat of that would give the Pacers license to steal one tonight. Neither side shot well (41.3% for Utah, 39.8% for Indiana) when the Jazz won 103-95 on the road in January. The Pacers have added Caris LeVert to the offensive arsenal since then. Myles Turner has missed the last few games for them which helps unclog the interior for them on offense, but hurts on the defensive end. |
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04-15-21 | Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 212.5 | Top | 121-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Total of the Day The first meeting in Boston was 96-95 game that included Lebron James and Anthony Davis for the Lakers. That’s a lot of points, from guys who get fouled a lot, missing for the re-match as far as the Lakers are concerned. They might have to get lucky to reach our forecast of 90. |
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04-15-21 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8 | 6-7 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Marlins’ lefty Trevor Rogers has started 3-0 and 1-4 games for them so far. He has allowed only 5 hits in 10 innings, whiffing 16. As a second-season 23-yearold, he has an opportunity for big form improvement in 2021. Braves home games are 5-0-1 Over so far. No Unders yet. So, naturally, we have to be the wise guys to anticipate the first Under at what is apparently called “Truist Park,” but who really cares? May as well call it Turner Field for all we care. Anyway, the Marlins are averaging 8.3 runs per games so far in this series, being 3-0 in it. Two of them went 10 innings and they scored 14 runs in the other. Time for Ian Anderson to step up and stop the nonsense, against a lineup that scored only 5 runs on 8 hits in 34 at-bats against him last season in three appearances, which had scores of 5-4 (the first one, which won’t work today!), 2-0 and 4-2. |
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04-13-21 | Heat v. Suns UNDER 217.5 | 86-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Suns let their defensive guard down in the second half last night after they’d led the Rockets by as many as 25 points, a lead that was built up on wide-open three-pointers against socially distant Houston defense. The Heat, by their own account, packed their defensive pants for this West Coast road trip. They held the offensive-minded Blazers to 98 points on Sunday while scoring 107 of their own, which is 7 points fewer than defensively suspect Portland allows per game. |
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04-13-21 | Lakers v. Hornets UNDER 207 | 101-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Hornets will be without Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk, scorers #2, #3 and #5 at 19.6, 15.9 and 13.1 ppg. Terry Rozier, Devonte Graham, Miles Bridges — all nice players but not the most consistent in terms of scoring reliability — get more minutes and shots in their absences. The Lakers will be without Davis and James, who, of course, are their top two scorers at 22.5 and 25.4 ppg. The B squad is 5-8 when both don’t play because they can’t replace that kind of production. |
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04-12-21 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Jamal Murray hasn’t played the last four games for Denver. Center James Wiseman is out for Golden State. Kelly Oubre seems unlikely for them as well, which would leave them without their #3 and #4 scorers. Murray is Denver’s #2 scorer. If he hasn’t played four in a row, it seems unlikely they’d ship him along with the rest of team for the second of back-to-backs. With offensive cogs missing on both sides, the defensive assignments become easier. Not as easy as Denver scoring only 8 points in yesterday’s fourth quarter but you get the idea. |
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04-12-21 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Cleveland's rotation owns a 2.70 ERA, and the Indians will open the series with Triston McKenzie (0-0, 2>45 ERA), who is making his seventh career start. McKenzie went 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA in six starts last season and began this season by allowing a run, two hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings during last Monday's loss to Kansas City. The right-hander is starting against Chicago for the first time. His only appearance against the White Sox was a two-inning stint when he struck out three on Sept. 23. McKenzie is getting the start though the Indians will monitor his workload closely since he went two years without pitching due to injuries and threw 33 1/3 innings last season. Consider that the OVER is 7-3 in White Sox last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter, 7-3 in White Sox last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, and 9-4 in White Sox last 13 overall. |
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04-10-21 | Kings v. Jazz OVER 230.5 | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Kings allow an average of 118.5 points per game, and that’s without having played the Jazz yet! They still have three games to play against Utah, who scores 117.0 ppg, #3 in the NBA. Sacramento’s defense was bad enough to give up 115 to the Lakers with L.A. missing Lebron James and Anthony Davis. The Spurs, who’ve been losing a lot of games lately, got 115 and 120 against the Kings, who can put the ball in the basket well enough. Sacramento has scored 141 and 132 vs. the Spurs and Warriors very recently, 128 vs. the Bucks. |
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04-07-21 | Hornets v. Thunder UNDER 213.5 | 113-102 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Losing LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward puts a major crimp in the Charlotte offense. Losing Shai Gilgeious-Alexander, Al Horford, having Lu Dort hurt all the time, puts a major crimp in the OKC offense. In their last five games, both teams are shooting only 41.5% overall, which is #28 and #29 in that span in a 30-team league. |
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04-06-21 | Bulls v. Pacers OVER 226.5 | 113-97 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units In an effort to make the playoffs, the Bulls acquired Nikola Vucevic from Orlando. He has not disappointed, scoring 21+ points in every game so far. Defense is optional in their first season under Billy Donovan. The available players have been changing since Day 1 because of injuries, etc. and now the trade. It’s hard enough to install a defensive system in Year One without having interruptions in the rotations. But they’ve got two guys who can go off — Zach Lavine and Vucevic — and Lauri Maarkenen isn’t chopped liver at 16.4 ppg. Malcolm Brogdon is an overlooked Pacer leading them in scoring at 21.2 ppg. Caris Levert joined them 12 games ago and averages 15.9 ppg. Nate Bkorkenen is another first-season head coach and he’s been wanting the Pacers to play more like the Raptors, which is what many new coaches do after they were assistants on teams that won. Better to do it with Raptors players better conditioned for it. Defense has been getting lost in the translation. |
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03-22-21 | Jazz v. Bulls OVER 227.5 | Top | 120-95 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit NBA 10* Total of the Month Consider that the over is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games following a straight up win, 11-1 in Jazz last 12 Monday games, 7-1 in Jazz last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400 and 6-2 in Jazz last 8 games as a road favorite. While the over is19-8 in Bulls last 27 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points and 7-3 in Bulls last 10 games as an underdog. |
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03-14-21 | Cincinnati v. Houston OVER 135.5 | Top | 54-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit CBB Total of the Month Consider that the over is 9-1 in Bearcats last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 6-1 in Bearcats last 7 games following a straight up win, 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 games as an underdog, and 16-5 in Bearcats last 21 overall. |
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03-13-21 | Golden Knights v. Blues OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit NHL Total of the Month Consider that the over is 23-6 in Blues last 29 Saturday games, 11-5 in Blues last 16 games playing on 0 days rest, and 11-5 in Blues last 16 home games. In addition the over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in St. Louis and 6-0 in the last 6 meetings. |
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03-11-21 | Devils v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 105 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Units NHL Total of the Mont The over is 8-2-1 in Islanders last 11 home games, 3-1-1 in Islanders last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game., 5-2 in Islanders last 7 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game, and 5-2 in Islanders last 7 games following a win. In addition, the over is 5-1 in Devils last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. |
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02-25-21 | Penguins v. Capitals OVER 6.5 | 2-5 | Win | 109 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As long as Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin are playing, then these two teams will always be considered the most fiercist of rivals. These teams played here two nights ago and the Pens won 3-2 in OT. I'm expecting a more wide-open contest here though and I look for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. Pittsburgh has won three straight. The Pens average 3.00 GPG and they allow 3.24. The Capitals average 3.28 GPG, but they concede 3.39. A faster-paced game = more shots and more shots = more goals. Consider the "over" in this East Division matchup. |
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02-22-21 | Stars v. Panthers OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NHL Total of the Day Consider that the 9-3-4 in Stars last 16 road games, 5-2 in Stars last 7 overall, 5-2 in Stars last 7 vs. NHL, and 5-2 in Stars last 7 vs. Central. While the over is 19-7 in Panthers last 26 Monday games and 42-20-2 in Panthers last 64 games playing on 1 days rest. |
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02-22-21 | Morehead State v. SIU-Edwardsville UNDER 132.5 | Top | 56-48 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Total of the Week The under is 14-6 in Eagles last 20 overall, 37-16 in Eagles last 53 games following a straight up win, and 23-10 in Eagles last 33 road games. While the under is 6-2 in Cougars last 8 games as a home underdog and 7-3 in Cougars last 10 home games. |
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02-17-21 | Jets v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 20 Unit NHL Total of the Year The over is 5-1-1 in Oilers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record, 4-1 in Oilers last 5 home games, and 7-3 in Oilers last 10 games as a home favorite. In addition, the over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. |
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02-16-21 | Capitals v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit 10* NHL Total of the Month The over is 18-7-2 in Capitals last 27 Tuesday games and 27-11-1 in Capitals last 39 vs. a team with a winning record. While the over is 8-1 in Penguins last 9 games as a favorite and 4-1 in Penguins last 5 overall. In addition the over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Pittsburgh and 7-0 in the last 7 meetings. |
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02-15-21 | Panthers v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NHL Total of the Day The under is 6-2 in Panthers last 8 road games, 4-1 in Panthers last 5 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game, and 7-3-1 in Panthers last 11 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. While the under is 5-2-1 in Lightning last 8 Monday games. |
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02-13-21 | Lightning v. Panthers OVER 5.5 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Day The over is 6-1 in Lightning last 7 games playing on 1 days rest, 4-1-1 in Lightning last 6 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game and 46-22-4 in Lightning last 72 Saturday games. While the over is 18-7-1 in Panthers last 26 Saturday games, 36-16-1 in Panthers last 53 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game, and 41-20-4 in Panthers last 65 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. |
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02-11-21 | Lightning v. Panthers OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NHL Total of the Week The over is 7-3-1 in Lightning last 11 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game, 7-3 in Lightning last 10 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game, and 7-3-2 in Lightning last 12 games following a win. While the over is 21-7 in Panthers last 28 Thursday games, 8-3-2 in Panthers last 13 games a home underdog, and 35-16-1 in Panthers last 52 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. In addition, the over is 39-18 in the last 57 meetings between these two teams. |
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02-09-21 | Nets v. Pistons OVER 229.5 | Top | 111-122 | Win | 100 | 3 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NBA Total of the Week Consider that the over is 14-3 in Nets last 17 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game, 9-2 in Nets last 11 games following a ATS loss, 13-3 in Nets last 16 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game, 13-3 in Nets last 16 games as a favorite, 16-5 in Nets last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, and 19-7 in Nets last 26 overall. While the over is 19-7 in Pistons last 26 games playing on 2 days rest, 8-3 in Pistons last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, and 16-6 in Pistons last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. |
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02-08-21 | Islanders v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Day |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 55.5 | 9-31 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mahomes is firmly in his prime, the most dangerous quarterback in the league for the past three seasons with 114 TD passes in 45 regular season games. Sparked by Mahomes, the Chiefs have scored at least 21 straight points in their past five playoff games. The Chiefs have averaged 36.1 points in the last six playoff games in which Mahomes did not get injured. Tampa Bay is averaging 35.7 points in its last six games with Brady firmly comfortable in his new offense with his many dangerous weapons. He is facing a less than stellar Kansas City defense. So even though this is a high total, it’s a tough sell to try to make an Under work given these two offenses and the league’s emphasis on high-scoring entertainment. Consider that the over is 23-10 in Buccaneers last 33 games overall. |
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02-06-21 | Marshall v. Old Dominion UNDER 144 | Top | 87-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit CBB Total of the Day The under is 4-1 in Monarchs last 5 overall, 8-2 in Monarchs last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 4-1 in Monarchs last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 5-2 in Monarchs last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. While the under is 7-3 in Thundering Herd last 10 games following a ATS loss. |
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02-06-21 | Lipscomb v. Stetson UNDER 137.5 | Top | 69-61 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Rebound Total of the Day The under is 4-0 in Bison last 4 Saturday games. While the under is |
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02-05-21 | Lipscomb v. Stetson UNDER 138 | Top | 68-73 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAB Total of the Day Notes to consider... This one gets re-scheduled for tonight after last Friday’s postponement, which caused some now-familiar re-shuffling of the A-Sun schedule last weekend. The Mad Hatters instead got FGCU and eventually broke a 4-game skid when beating the Eagles on Saturday, which also snapped a 5-game Stetson “under” streak. Prior to that 77-66 win, Stetson was only scoring 63 ppg in its previous six league games, as HC Donnie Jones has a tight rein on his troops, who often rely upon soph G Rob Perry (such as the win over FGCU, when he scored 30). Lipscomb not especially dynamic, either, scoring just 66 ppg its last six A-Sun games |
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02-04-21 | Predators v. Panthers OVER 5.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NHL Total of the Day The over is - 3-0-1 in Predators last 4 games as an underdog, 4-1 in Predators last 5 road games, and 9-3 in Predators last 12 games as a road underdog. While the over is 15-5-2 in Panthers last 22 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 20-7 in Panthers last 27 Thursday games, 8-3 in Panthers last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest, and 10-4 in Panthers last 14 games as a home favorite. |
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01-31-21 | UNLV v. Nevada OVER 142 | Top | 60-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit CBB Play of the Day The over is 16-3 in Rebels last 19 Sunday games, 9-4 in Rebels last 13 games following a ATS loss, and 37-18 in Rebels last 55 games following a straight up loss. While the Over is 16-5 in Wolf Pack last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, 16-6 in Wolf Pack last 22 games as a favorite, and 15-7-1 in Wolf Pack last 23 overall |
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01-31-21 | Islanders v. Flyers OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 119 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NHL Total of the Day The Over is 4-1-2 in Islanders last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. While the over is 6-2 in Flyers last 8 overall and 6-2 in Flyers last 8 vs. East. In addition, the over is 14-5-1 in the last 20 meetings. |
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01-30-21 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NHL Total of the Day The over is 4-1 in Capitals last 5 games playing on 1 days rest, 32-13-1 in Capitals last 46 games following a win, 20-9-2 in Capitals last 31 games as a home underdog, and 39-19 in Capitals last 58 home games. |
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01-24-21 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee UNDER 138 | Top | 68-52 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAB Total of the Day The under is is 7-1 in Hilltoppers last 8 vs. a team with a losing straight up record and 6-2 in Hilltoppers last 8 road games. While the under is 11-3 in Blue Raiders last 14 overall, 7-2 in Blue Raiders last 9 home games, and 13-5 in Blue Raiders last 18 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. |
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01-23-21 | Jacksonville State v. Austin Peay UNDER 140.5 | Top | 76-70 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit CBB Total of the Day The under is 5-1 in Gamecocks last 6 games as an underdog, 11-4 in Gamecocks last 15 Saturday games, 5-2 in Gamecocks last 7 games as a road underdog. While the under is 16-5-1 in Governors last 22 overall, 6-2-1 in Governors last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 18-7-1 in Governors last 26 games following a ATS loss. |
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01-22-21 | Charlotte v. Florida Atlantic OVER 126.5 | Top | 53-66 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
CBB Play of the Day The over is 12-3 in 49ers last 15 games as a road underdog, 12-3 in 49ers last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 6-2 in 49ers last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, and 7-3 in 49ers last 10 games following a ATS win. While the over is 4-0 in Owls last 4 games as a favorite, 6-1 in Owls last 7 overall, and 5-1 in Owls last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. |
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01-20-21 | Tulsa v. Houston OVER 124 | 59-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units All the elements were there noting a performance worth lauding, and Houston's dismantling of visiting UCF on Sunday provided a showcase of the Cougars' excellence. However, as evidence of how high the bar has been raised for the No. 8 Cougars, there was plenty to assess regarding how they could improve upon their near-perfect first half. The Cougars carried a 45-19 lead to the break after knocking down 6 of 14 3-point attempts and grabbing seven steals. Ultimately, the Cougars rolled to their fourth consecutive win, a 75-58 decision that Houston (11-1, 6-1 American Athletic Conference) will use as a springboard for its rematch against visiting Tulsa on Wednesday. The Golden Hurricane handed the Cougars their lone loss of the season, prevailing 65-64 on Dec. 29 in Tulsa. As for the Cougars' win over UCF, Houston coach Kelvin Sampson said, "Teachers are always looking for teaching moments, and we had plenty. A lot of good moments, too. If you listen to me .. you'd think we lost. But I'm pretty sure we won, right?" Individually and collectively, the Cougars provided glimpses of what makes them formidable. They forced 20 turnovers and converted those miscues into 22 points, grabbed 17 offensive rebounds that resulted in 14 second-chance points, and limited UCF to 4-of-19 3-point shooting. Houston's Quentin Grimes scored 18 points, essentially matching his team-leading average of 17.8, while Justin Gorham added 15 point and nine rebounds. |
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01-16-21 | Old Dominion v. Rice UNDER 143 | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The under is 14-5 in Monarchs last 19 Saturday games, 13-5 in Monarchs last 18 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, and 15-6 in Monarchs last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. While the under is 8-3 in Owls last 11 overall and 5-2 in Owls last 7 games following a straight up win |
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01-16-21 | San Diego State v. Utah State OVER 127.5 | 59-64 | Loss | -113 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The over is 6-2 in Aztecs last 8 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game, 8-3-1 in Aztecs last 12 games following a ATS loss, and 5-2 in Aztecs last 7 road games. |
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01-15-21 | Texas-San Antonio v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 150 | 66-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 overall, 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 home games, and 5-2 in Bulldogs last 7 games following a straight up win. |
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01-14-21 | Canucks v. Oilers OVER 6 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The over is 8-3 in Canucks last 11 vs. a team with a losing record and 17-8-1 in Canucks last 26 road games. While the over is 9-3-1 in Oilers last 13 vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 5-2 in Oilers last 7 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game, and 9-4-1 in Oilers last 14 games playing on 0 days rest. |
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01-13-21 | Boise State v. Wyoming OVER 148.5 | 90-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Over is 13-3 in Cowboys last 16 games following a ATS loss, 20-6 in Cowboys last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 16-5 in Cowboys last 21 games following a straight up loss, and 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. In addition, the Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. |
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01-03-21 | St. Joe's v. Rhode Island UNDER 152.5 | 77-85 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Offensive production is off a bit this season for David Cox’s Rams, especially top scorer G Fatts Russell, one of the most-potent A-10 weapons a year ago down from 18.8 points per game to 13.8 points per game, and Rhode Island ranks well up the track (302 out of 329) in the telling assist- per-game category (only 10.4). The Rams should win, probably comfortably, but more intrigued by this 150s “total” that seems too high, especially considering these matchups landed on 132 and 128, respectively, a year ago |