Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-31-17 | Pistons +10 v. Bucks | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The Pistons have turned very ugly losing eight of their last 10 games. Reggie Jackson has been ineffective, Andre Drummond is the worst free throw shooter in NBA history for a prominent player and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was arrested on Wednesday for suspicion of drunk driving. So why endorse these losers? Call me a sucker, but I believe the Pistons hang with the Bucks here. Milwaukee has won 17 of its last 23 games. Kris Middleton has made a difference offensively and defensively, too. He's been a big key why the Bucks have played so well since losing Jabari Parker. Yet the Bucks have failed to cover three of the last four times they've been favored. They are 0-3 the last times when laying more than six points. This is just the third time they are favored by more than nine points with the other two times coming against the 76ers and Nets. Speaking of the Nets, the Pistons grabbed a much needed victory by edging them, 90-89, last night stopping their five-game losing streak. The Pistons still retain playoff hopes. This is a must-win spot for them. They are due for a much better performance. I see them playing very hard here. Drummond is going to be brutal at the free throw line, but he's the best rebounder on the court. Underrated Ish Smith is an improvement on Jackson at point guard and Caldwell-Pope won't be suspended. Any punishment to him would occur at the start of next season.
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03-30-17 | Clippers v. Suns +10.5 | Top | 124-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Writeup available shortly. |
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03-29-17 | Warriors +4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
No fancy handicap here. I'll take this many points with the Warriors in a double revenge spot and playing more focused with better defense than they were before. Golden State was a rare underdog last night and beat the Rockets. They are 7-2 ATS now versus home foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Spurs are 3-9 ATS following a victory. I respect Gregg Popovich more than any other coach, but the Warriors are at least equal to the Spurs even without Kevin Durant.
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03-28-17 | TCU -2.5 v. UCF | Top | 68-53 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
TCU played a more difficult schedule that Central Florida, carries a higher RPI ranking, is playing its best ball and I trust Jamie Dixon and the Horned Frogs' passing ability to dent the Knights' outstanding defense. TCU is an excellent passing team and has a backcourt edge. I really like its ball movement. The Horned Frogs averaged 17 assists per game. Dixon has had ample practice and preparation time to combat the freak presence of ace defender 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall. The Horned Frogs can create good matchups based on their passing ability. Fall has to deal with fatigue never having played this many games before. I just don't believe he'll be as big a factor as perceived and Central Florida doesn't have enough offense to compensate if its defense isn't playing at a high level. |
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03-28-17 | Kings v. Oilers -125 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
Maybe the Kings present an effort here - not exactly a given - but even so they are inferior to the Oilers this season. The two teams just met eight days ago when the Kings' playoff hopes weren't quite as bleak. The Oilers won, 2-0, at home. The Kings couldn't score then and they are still having trouble putting the puck in the net. Discount a five-goal performance versus defensively-challenged Winnipeg and the Kings have scored seven goals during their last six games. LA has lost five of its last seven to fall a hopeless 11 points out of a final wild-card spot. Things are looking much better for the Oilers.Theyve won six of seven to move within two points of first-place Anaheim. Cam Talbot shut out the Kings on March 20 and is slated to be in goal again.
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03-27-17 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Kings | Top | 90-91 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Do you envision the Grizzlies losing to the Kings here? I don't. The question is can the Grizzlies win by enough of a margin to cover this number. I believe the setting is ripe for the Grizzlies to accomplish that even if Marc Gasol remains out. This is Memphis' final game of a four-game road swing. They lost the first three games to the Pelicans, Spurs and Warriors. No shame in losing to San Antonio and Golden State, perhaps the two best teams in the NBA. Now the Grizzlies step down from the elite to the bottom-five. That's what the Kings have become since giving away DeMarcus Cousins, going 3-12 since he departed. The Grizzlies' past 13 victories have all come by at least seven points. That's a promising sign figuring they are going to win this game. Memphis has dominated this series, too, winning 19 of the past 22 times. The Kings have to be fat and happy after pulling out a one-point road victory against the Clippers in their last game yesterday rallying from 18 points down with just five minutes left. That could be the most improbable comeback victory of the season. Now the Kings travel home where they have dropped seven of their last eight.
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03-27-17 | Blackhawks -121 v. Lightning | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -121 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
Chicago is much superior to Tampa Bay with 12 more victories and eight fewer losses. The key question is will the Blackhawks have the motivation to win this road game when they are all but assured of the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference? I certainly believe so. Not only do the Blackhawks have revenge for a 5-2 home loss suffered to the Lightning back in January, but they were humiliated, 7-0, on the road by the Panthers in their last game this past Saturday. I see that defeat - which Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville called "an ugly, ugly loss" - as a wakeup call. The Blackhawks had been playing well going 6-0-1 in their previous seven games. The Blackhawks are usually very strong on the road winning 13 of their past 16 away games. They are 8-0 the past eight times on the road when meeting an opponent with a winning home record.
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03-26-17 | Stars v. Devils +115 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Neither team is going to the playoffs, but I want the home team with an early start time that has the better defense and goalie. Dallas is fat and happy after stunning the Sharks, 6-1, at home on Friday. However, the Stars have dropped 20 of their last 27 road games, including four of their las five. Dallas also is 6-23 the past 29 times following a victory.
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03-26-17 | Kings +13.5 v. Clippers | Top | 98-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
The Clippers have a poor track record in these types of situation. LA just clinched a playoff berth with a 108-95 home win against Utah on Saturday. That was a highyly-satisfying victory for LA. So it's going to be difficult for the Clippers to match that intensity against the struggling Kings. The Clippers are 1-8 ATS the past nine times versus foes with a losing record. They also have failed to cover the last five times following a double-digit victory. The Clippers are a playoff team, but they are not elite status. They've just been mediocre going 9-9 in their last 18 games. This marks their third game in four days and they are off the next two days so there could be a tendency to just win and relax. The Kings have become terrible since trading DeMarcus Cousins. They have a lot of youngsters playing for their futures so at least they should product a full effort.
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03-26-17 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Florida | Top | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This game isn't going to be pretty. It's going to be an intense, grind-out, defensive matchup between two SEC foes who know each other well having split their two games this season. So I want South Carolina's defense, senior star guard Sindarius Thornwell and the points going for me. The Gamecocks ranked fifth nationally in turnovers forced per game. They've continued their outstanding defense in the tournament. Thornwell was the SEC Player of the Year and he hasn't disappointed in the Big Dance stepping up even more to average 25.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals while also making 10 of 22 3-pointers. He'll be the best player on the court. South Carolina displayed its defensive dominance in taking down Baylor, 70-50, on Friday holding the Bears to 30.4 percent from the floor. Florida had a much tougher game on Friday sneaking past Wisconsin in overtime, 84-83, on a 3-point buzzer-beater by Chris Chiozza. The Gators blew a late 12-point lead and it remains open to discussion how much energy that game took out of them both physically and mentally. The short turnaround is a major advantage for South Carolina.
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03-25-17 | Rangers +119 v. Kings | 3-0 | Win | 119 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
A pair of one-goal defeats have left the Rangers on a two-game losing streak. You have to go back to Jan. 17 to find the last time the Rangers suffered a third consecutive loss. The Rangers are 17 points better than the Kings, who are all but eliminated from the playoffs. New York has a plus 40 goal differential while the Kings are minus three. The Kings are home and backup Anti Raanta will be in goal again for New York. But the Rangers shouldn't be an underdog. Raanta is one of the better backups and the Kings rank 25th in goals per game. The Kings had gone five straight games of scoring fewer than three goals before breaking out in a 5-2 home win against Winnipeg two days ago. I'm not impressed as the Jets have the second-worst defense in the league. The Rangers have the best road mark in the NHL at 26-9-1. They are 16-5 the past 21 times on the road when facing an opponent with a winning home record. |
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03-25-17 | Raptors +1 v. Mavs | Top | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
Toronto is playing with a lot of confidence, winners of four in a row. I consider the Raptors a better team than the Mavericks. That was proven just 12 days ago when Toronto blasted Dallas, 100-78. The Raptors outrebounded Dallas by 21 in that game. The Mavericks have ranked with the Kings as one of the worst rebounding teams since the All-Star break. Dirk Nowitzki can't cut it at center and the league has caught up to the Mavericks' youthful backcourt of Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell. Their play has tailed way off after being initially surprisingly good. DeMar DeRozan is on fire producing consecutive 40-point games. Serge Ibaka is back from a one-game suspension to further exploit the Mavericks' rebounding weakness. Toronto has proven it can still win without Kyle Lowery going 10-5 in his absence.
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga -7.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Xavier is on a surprisingly great run. Gonzaga has yet to play its "A" game in the NCAA Tournament. The due factor is going to kick in here. Look for the Bulldogs to roll past Xavier by double-digits. The 11th-seeded Musketeers kept their miracle of winning the NCAA Tournament alive by closing on a 9-0 run to steal a 73-71 win from second-seed Arizona Thursday. Xavier and LSU of 1987 are the only teams in tournament history to take out three top six seeds during their first three games. That takes a big toll, though. And this is a quick turnaround. It has been a great run for Xavier. Much props to the Musketeers, but I see their season ending here. The team has too many imperfections, a size disadvantage with just one starter taller than 6-foot-6 and a key injury that will hurt them here with starting point guard Edmond Sumner missing after being lost for the season with a knee injury sustained in late January. Standout wing Trevon Bluiett isn't 100 percent either from an ankle injury. Critics of Gonzaga said the Bulldogs couldn't handle West Virginia's pressure defense. Gonzaga did. Now the Bulldogs face Xavier's zone defenses. They'll be ready for that, too, with a necessary inside/outside game that ranked No. 2 in the country in field goal percentage and the 3-point accuracy to rank 68th in 3-point percentage.
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03-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 203.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Expect a lot of defensive intensity and flat offensive play in this game. It's not just the Jazz ranking No. 1 in defense holding foes to 96.5 points a game while also ranking second in defensive field goal percentage and that the Clippers are an above average defensive club themselves. This is a day game. So the teams could be sluggish with an unusual early start time. The Clippers just flew in from Dallas where they were upset by the Mavericks, 97-95, Thursday night. So it's almost a back-to-back spot for them due to the 12:30 local tip-off. The matchup also carries serious playoff ramifications. Both are battling to gain the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference. That's huge because the fourth seed avoids the Warriors, Spurs and Rockets in the first round. Those three teams are a clear cut above the rest of the Western playoff contenders.
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03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
Youth will be served here and I side with Kentucky's talent over UCLA. Lonzo Ball has had to face a lot of distractions due in large part to his big-mouthed dad. Ball is a great talent, but Kentucky also has great talent in its backcourt - and more depth there. Much is being mentioned about the Bruins beating the Wildcats, 97-92, at Rupp Arena back in early December. That was an impressive victory for UCLA. It ended the Wildcats' 42-game home win streak. The Bruins also shot 53 percent from the floor while the Wildcats made just 41 percent of their field goals, which was a season-low at the time. Kentucky isn't going to shoot that bad again and the Bruins aren't going to be that hot again. The Wildcats have been playing outstanding defense holding eight of their last nine opponents to 70 or less points. Opponents have shot under 40 percent during this span against Kentucky. It's a big advantage for the Wildcats - even though they lost - to have played UCLA because now they are fully aware of how fast the Bruins' ball movement is. They won't be taken by surprise not to mention they have a huge revenge factor. The Wildcats are the more physical team. They've yet to play a strong game in the Tournament so far. I say that comes here.
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03-24-17 | Cavs -2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The Cavaliers are two levels higher than the Hornets and shouldn't lack for motivation after getting blown out by the Nuggets, 126-113, this past Wednesday. That cut Cleveland's lead to just one game over Boston for top record in the Eastern Conference. LeBron James is as brilliant as ever, Kyrie Irving is having a strong month and the Cavaliers are finally fully healthy with both Kevin Love and Kyle Korver back from injuries. Irving is averaging nearly 40 points in his last two games. The Cavaliers are 3-0 versus the Hornets this season with a winning margin being by an average of 10 points. The Hornets have failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 home contests
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03-24-17 | Nuggets v. Pacers -123 | 125-117 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
The Pacers are one of those bad road/good home teams. They are 25-10 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and 11-25 on the road. Denver is 13-20 away from Pepsi Center and 3-8 ATS the past 11 times facing a foe with a winning home mark. Indiana has won four in a row at home, winning those games by an average of 12.3 points. Paul George is back playing at his All-Star level. He's averaging nearly 27 points this month. Not only are both teams involved in playoff runs, but the Pacers have an added revenge motive for an embarrassing 140-112 road loss to Denver on Jan. 12. Denver is a bit fat and happy after upsetting the defending champion Cavaliers by 13 points at home this past Wednesday. They are 4-9 ATS the past 13 times following a victory. Stephen Nover Free Friday Play Hawks plus 5 1/2 at Bucks It takes a lot of zigging and zagging to beat a don't-make-sense league such as the NBA. We have a perfect example today: Take Atlanta plus the points at Milwaukee. The Hawks have lost five in a row. The Bucks are returning from a 4-2 road trip, marking the first time since the 1988-'89 season Milwaukee won four games during a single road trip. Logic says lay the points with the Bucks. Logic, though, doesn't work too often in the NBA. If it did the sport would be easy to win at instead of being what many pro gamblers consider the most difficult sport to beat. Still, why get involved with the cold Hawks? We go back a little more than two weeks ago to help get the answer. Atlanta was riding a three-game winning streak from March 8-12 defeating the Nets, Raptors and Grizzlies in Memphis. Then the Hawks lost to the Spurs. No shame in that. The Grizzlies got their revenge against the Hawks following that game. Again, no shame in losing to Memphis. But then in their next game - home against Portland this past Saturday - the Hawks lost by 16 points. Paul Millsap injured his knee during warmups prior to that game and the Hawks had trouble adjusting without their best player. Millsap, a four-time All-Star, leads Atlanta in scoring and is second in rebounding, assists and steals. Coupled with the loss of underrated Kent Bazemore, the Hawks proceeded to drop their next game, 105-90, to the Hornets in Charlotte. That was the Hawks' fourth straight loss with the defeats coming by an average of 12.8 points per game. These are the short windows of opportunity that come and go in the NBA. They don't stay open long as team and oddsmaker adjust. The Hawks covered as 7 1/2-point road 'dogs to the Wizards in losing, 104-100, two days ago in their last game. Atlanta is not going to have Millsap nor Bazemore against the Bucks. But the team has made the proper adjustments. The Hawks showed progress against the Wizards and are now less depended on Millsap. The Hawks have a strong track record against the Bucks and draw Milwaukee in a vulnerable situational spot. The Bucks are a bit fat and happy following their successful six-game, 11-day road journey that concluded with a blowout victory against the Kings in Sacramento this past Wednesday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo is an absolute monster on pace to join Ocar Robertson and Magic Johnson as the only player to average more than 20 points, eight rebounds and five assists under the age of 22. If my Rotisserie fantasy basketball draft were being held now I would rank Antetokounmpo as the fourth overall player behind Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Anthony Davis. The Bucks are a young team whose maturity is under question. The Bucks have their long-time arch rivals, the Bulls, on deck Sunday at home. I wouln't trust the Bucks to bring their "A" game here considering the circumstanes. They still could be getting used to the time change having been on the West Coast the past week. It should be noted the Bucks may be without backup center John Henson. He missed Milwauke's last game with a thumb injury. If Henson can't play that would be one less big man to hack Dwight Howard. The Hawks need point guard Dennis Schroder to return to his earlier solid form. He's been terrible during the Hawks' losing streak. Point guard is not one of the Bucks' strengths. Veteran forward Ersan Ilyasova also needs to step up. He's a former Buck so he should be psyched for this matchup. The Hawlks are in stop-the-pain mode. They have just a one-game lead on the Bucks and Pacers for fifth place in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta has a winning straight-up and spread record on the road. They have defeated the Buck in seven of the past nine meetings, including all three this season winning by an average of eight points. The Hawks have covered in seven of their last eight visits to Milwaukee. |
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03-23-17 | Purdue v. Kansas -5 | Top | 66-98 | Win | 100 | 62 h 56 m | Show |
Losing in their opening game of the Big 12 Conference Tournament is the best thing that happened to Kansas. That was two weeks ago and extra rest and motivation by that early exit have propelled the Jayhawks to peak at just the right time. Kansas already is arguably the best team in the country and the Jayhawks have played extremely well in the NCAA Tournament blowing by UC-Davis and defeating Michigan State by 20 points. That pushed the Jayhawks' ATS mark to 6-1 when laying points in the NCAA Tourney. Now the Jayhawks get another Big Ten team, Purdue. The Boilermakers lack the Spartans Big Dance Sweet 16 pedigree and while their defense is solid, it ranks among the bottom in steals and forcing turnovers. Kansas has the superior offense and it's in full throttle. The Jayhawks are averaging 87 points during their last five games. The Boilermakers' backcourt can't match Kansas' guard trio of Frank Mason III, Josh Jackson and Devonte' Graham. Those three are averaging a combined 50 points per game. Mason is especially rolling scoring 20 or more points in eight of his last nine games. Technically this is a netural site game being played at Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo. The reality is that it's almost a home game for Kansas being just 35 miles east of Lawrence, home of the Jayhawks. Kansas is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 neutral site games, too, while Purdue is 2-5 ATS the past seven times. |
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03-22-17 | Bucks v. Kings +5 | Top | 116-98 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
This is a dangerous spot for the Bucks. They pulled off a road upset of Portland last night. This marks the end of their six-game, 10-day road trip. They are playing without rest with home games against Atlanta on Friday and long-time rival Chicag on Sunday looming. Milwaukee is playing well. But the Bucks aren't nearly mature enough to cover a margin like this if they don't produce at least a high "B" game. Milwaukee is 2-8 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. Sacramento has been idle the past two days. The Kings have been tough at home recently beating the Magic and taking the Wizards and Jazz to overtime during three of their last four home contests. The Wizards and Jazz are both superior to the Bucks.
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03-21-17 | Georgia Tech v. Ole Miss -5 | Top | 74-66 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
Georgia Tech isn't the same team on the road. The Yellow Jackets are 2-10 away from home. Yes, that's right. Georgia Tech has exactly two road victories. Mississippi has covered six of its last seven home games. The Rebels have had to play their first two NIT games on the road. They are coming off an 85-80 victory against heavyweight Syracuse, while Georgia Tech has had the benefit of playing its first two NIT games at home beating disjointed Indiana - which just fired its coach - and lightly regarded Belmont. It's not just having home-court. That's accounted for in the line. I like the way Mississippi is peaking. The Rebels ended the regular season defeating South Carolina, which has reached the Sweet 16. They followed that with a victory against Missouri in the SEC Tournament, a one-point loss to Arkansas and then road wins against Monmouth and Syracuse in the NIT. The Rebels are getting outstanding guard play from Terence Davis and Deandre Burnett. The two combined for 49 points against Syracuse, including hitting 11 3-pointers in burning the Orange's fabled zone defense. This doesn't bode well for Georgia Tech, which relies on defense to win. Davis has been hot for a while averaging 18.3 points during his last 11 games. Ole Miss also has Sebastian Saiz. He led the SEC in rebounding, ranking fifth in the nation. He's shot only 34 percent from the floor, though, during his past four games. He's better than a 46 percent shooter on the season. So he's due to play better giving the Rebels an inside-outside game.
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03-21-17 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans OVER 205 | Top | 82-95 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
New Orleans went 2-6 during its first eight games with DeMarcus Cousins. But now Cousins and fellow superstar Anthony Davis are far more in sync. The result has been four wins in their last five games for the Pelicans. The Pelicans are playing at a faster pace now, too. That's helped them average 117.6 points during their last five games of which four have gone over. The Grizzlies are getting career seasons from Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. They are firing more 3-points than ever before. Memphis has reached triple digits in eight of its last 11 games. New Orleans is a below average defensive team. So I see this total as being set too low. |
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03-21-17 | Rangers v. Devils OVER 5 | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
The Rangers are the fifth-highest scoring team in the NHL. They have scored three or more goals in five of their last six games. The Devils are giving up an average of four goals per game during their last five games. The Devils' defense has slipped and their goaltending has proven overrated this season. New Jersey, though, should do its share of damage on the offensive end at home against Rangers backup goalie Antti Raanta. The Devils have scored a power play goal in each of the last four games while the Rangers have yielded a power play goal in six straight games. There haven't been fewer than five goals scored during the past four meetings between the two teams. |
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03-21-17 | Flames +185 v. Capitals | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
There's just too much value to pass up the Flames at this price. The Flames are 17-3-1 in their last 20 games, 9-1 versus Eastern Conference foes and 5-0 in their past five road games. Red-hot goalie Brian Elliott has won the past 11 times he has been in net and Calgary is 12-1 in its last 13 games. The Flames' lone loss during this span was against the Bruins when Ellliott was rested. This isn't a fade on the Capitals, who are playing well themselves. It's a play on the Flames. However, the Capitals' intensity may be down a notch after they just clinched a playoff spot.
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03-20-17 | Kings v. Oilers -133 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
The matchup and spot set up extremely well for the home ice Oilers. Edmonton has won three in a row outscoring its oppoents, 16-5, during this hot streak. This is the last game of the Oilers' eight-game homestand. A victory here would put the Oilers in second place in the Pacific Divison as they look to make the playoffs for the first time in 10 seasons. Connor McDavid is proving himself to be perhaps the most valuable player in the league with 21 points in his last 18 games. Spirit and momentum are high right now with the Oilers. This is the time to ride them. Not so with the Kings. Los Angeles isn't likely to make the playoffs trailing Nashville by six points for the second wild-card spot in the West with 11 games remaining. The Kings just got blasted, 5-2, by the Flames in Calgary on Sunday. The Kings haven't scored moe than two goals during each of their last four games. They have dropped four of their last five road games, are 0-4 the past four times playing without rest and also are 1-8 when facing a foe with an above . 500 record. Their goaltending hasn't been shapr either. Starting goalie Jonathan Quick was pulled on Sunday after giving up two goals on Calgary's first eight shots and backup Ben Bishop is past his prime.
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03-20-17 | Warriors -113 v. Thunder | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Beating the Thunder in Oklahoma City isn't easy. But I see the Warriors doing it making the point they don't need Kevin Durant to be able to beat Oklahoma City. Golden State is 3-0 versus the Thunder this season, including breezing past the Thunder, 130-114, at Oklahoma City last month. Going back to last season, the Warriors have covered in each of the last six meetings versus the Thunder. The Warriors have gotten back their mojo since losing Durant to injury winning three in a row. Golden State is at the elite level. It's not asking too much for the Warriors to win this game straight-up.
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03-20-17 | Utah Valley v. Rice -4.5 | 85-79 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
Rice is home here. That's bad news for Utah Valley, which is 7-10 on the road. Rice has too much offense for the Wolverines. The Owls ranked 24th in the country averaging 81.6 points a game. They are 13-5 at home. |
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03-19-17 | Senators +134 v. Canadiens | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
I'll take a plus price to back the Senators in revenge mode after losing 4-3 in a shootout at home on Saturday to Montreal. The Canadiens are just 2-5-1 during their last eight home games. They are 2-4 in their last six games versus the Senators even counting yesterday's victory. The Senators are 4-1 in their last five road games and would hold a goalie edge if both teams go with backup goalies as expected with Mike Condon being superior to Al Montoya.
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03-19-17 | Rhode Island v. Oregon UNDER 140 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
First off the numbers are there for both teams. Rhode Island ranks 33rd defensively giving up 65.1 points a game. The Rams rank No. 2 in blocked shots and No. 3 in defending against 3-pointers. They are 26th in defensive field goal percentage. They also won't have to worry about Chris Boucher, the Ducks' third-leading scorer out with a torn ACL. Oregon also surrenders just 65 points per game. The Ducks led the nation in blocked shots while ranking 21st in defensive field goal percentage and 25th in 3-point defense. Numbers are numbers. They also have to fit the matchup for them to work. That's the case here. Rhode Island isn't skilled enough offensively to take the attack to Oregon. The Rams are merely an average offensive team ranking 109th in 2-point shots, 239th in 3-pointers and 287th in free throw percentage. Oregon is too strong defensively to give the Rams any crack at the basket via fastbreak, or by not taking care of the basketball. So the Rams are going to have to create their own openings and good shots. That's not their strength. They also have a short bench. So expect the Rams to be very methodical here taking their time in setting up their shots. What the Rams do is play with all-out effort. They are well-coached under Danny Hurley with a fundamentally sound defense and underrated size. Boucher is a major loss for Oregon. He was the Ducks' third-leading scorer, No. 2 rebounder and top shot blocker. However, his replacement, Kavell Bigby-Williams, is 6-foot-11 and a good shot-blocker and rebounder. So the Ducks' loss is more on offense than defense. Another plus for the under.
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03-19-17 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Blackhawks | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
The Blackhawks now have a five-point lead in the Central Division following a 2-1 overtime victory against the Maple Leafs on the road Saturday. Now the Blackhawks are home following a three-game Canadian trip where they beat the Canadiens, Senators and Maple Leafs by a combined four goals. This is Chicago's third game in four days and fourth game in six days. This is a monster letdown spot for the Blackhawks, who also carry a fatigue factor. The Avalanche are the worst team in the NHL, but they've been playing decent going 3-3 in their last six games. The Blackhawks are 3-5 in their last eight games if laying 1 1/2 goals.
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03-18-17 | Canucks v. Oilers -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 110 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Edmonton just rolled past Dallas, 7-1, on Tuesday and Boston, 7-4, on Thursday. You have to think the Oilers can win by more than one goal at home against the Canucks, losers of five in a row with each loss occurring at home. All four of the Oilers' lines are playing well. The Canucks have surrendered 17 goals during their last four games. The Canucks aren't doing the job either offensively averaging fewer than two goals per game during their losing streak. They rank second-from-the-bottom in the NHL in goals scored. Vancouver has lost 45 of its last 66 road games.
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03-18-17 | Rockets -2.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Denver doesn't have the defense to slow down the Rockets. Houston beat Denver, 128-110, the past time it played at Pepsi Center this past December. I see the Rockets coming out strong again after a poor effort last night in a 128-112 road loss to the Pelicans. Houston is 16-5 ATS following a loss, 21-10 ATS versus foes with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Rockets are playing short-handed minus two injured players - Danilo Gallinari, their second-best player, and key reserve Wilson Chandler. |
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03-18-17 | Northwestern v. Gonzaga -10.5 | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -112 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
Northwestern was lucky to escape Vanderbilt in its first round NCAA Tournament game Thursday. The Wildcats are NCAA Tourney novices. This also is their fifth game in 10 days.They are not good enough, nor ready to step up to face an opponent this good. Gonzaga could be the best team in the country and are far more tournament tested. I find this spread short as I see the Bulldogs burying Northwestern. While Northwestern is on Cloud Nine after getting past the Commodores, Gonzaga is in a kill-mood. The Bulldogs defeated South Dakota State by 20 points in their opening Big Dance game nearly covering a 23-point spread despite a flat performance. Bulldogs coach Mark Few was not happy with his team shooting less than 40 percent from the floor, missing 10 of 18 fgree throws and committing more turnovers than assists. Look for guard Nigel Williams-Goss and the rest of the Bulldogs to play far better. Gonzaga is superior to Wisconsin and the Badgers waxed the Wildcats, 76-48, last Saturday in the Big 10 Conference Tournament. Gonzaga is 20-5-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents.
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03-17-17 | Magic +2.5 v. Suns | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
The Magic should be up for this game after their no-show last night against the Warriors. Orlando coach Frank Vogel reamed his team out for that dreadful performance. Orlando has covered eight of the last 10 times in Phoenix. The Suns are going with youth with the latest casualty being their best player, Eric Bledsoe. The Suns have decided to sit him for the rest of the season so he can rest his sore knee.
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03-17-17 | Raptors +4 v. Pistons | 87-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Not only does Toronto have revenge for a 102-101 road loss last month to the Pistons after blowing a 16-point leading entering the fourth quarter, but they played horrible last night in getting blown out by the Thunder, 123-102, at home. That loss was so bad Raptors coach Dwane Casey apologized to the Toronto fans ripping his team's lack of effort. The good news from that defeat is none of the Raptors played big minutes, DeMarre Carroll return from an ankle injury and the Raptors should be primed for a monster effort today. The Pistons haven't been playing well and don't deserve to be this big of a favorite against the veteran Raptors, who have won six more games than Detroit.
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03-17-17 | UC-Davis +24 v. Kansas | Top | 62-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
UC Davis is a team I've followed being on the West Coast and familar with the Big West Conference. The Aggies are better than perceived. They have athleticism, can play defense - holding their last four foes to less than 40 percent shooting - and have balanced scoring. The Aggies also won't be nearly as rusty as Kansas having defeated North Carolina Central this past Wednesday in the NCAA Tournament play-in game. The Aggies are excited to play in the NCAA Tournament, a first for them. A full effort from them should be forthcoming. Kansas has a different goal and that's to win not just this game but the entire tournament, a feat the Jayhawks are capable of achieving. So Kansas doesn't have the need to go all out every minute of this game with its starters. The Jayhawks also must deal with a rust factor. This is just their second game in 13 days. Kansas last played nine days ago and wasn't sharp losing to TCU in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Kansas is a mighty power, but it hasn't defeated an opponent by more than 19 points in its last 22 games. The Jayhawks are 0-5 the past five times laying 13 or more points, which coincides with their not being a strong favorite going 5-12-1 ATS the past 18 times as chalk. Bottom line is the Jayhawks haven't proven worthy of being good in the role of favorite and have no incentive to cover this big of a margin here.
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03-17-17 | Seton Hall +1 v. Arkansas | 71-77 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
Seton Hall is a sleeper teram and dangerous. Look for the Pirates to prove that here. Unlike last season when Seton Hall peaked in the Big East Conference Tournament knocking off Villanova on its way to capturing the title and then losing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in a flat performance following that great accomplishment, the Pirates are rested and determined to make it farther in the tournament. The Pirates lost a two-point game to Villanova in the second round of the Big East Tourney this season. Seton Hall now didn't use up all of its energy and focus in the Big East Tourney yet still is playing extremely well. The Pirates had won five in a row until falling by to Villanova. Among those victories were wins against NCAA Tournament teams Xavier, Butler and Marquette. Xavier and Butler each won their opening Big Dance game on Thursday and Marquette plays today. The Pirates also open against Arkansas not Gonzaga like last season. The Razorbacks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. The last time they covered a spread in a postseason tournament was 2014. Seton Hall held Villanova to 55 points in its Big East Tourney game, which was 22 point below the Wildcats' season average. The Pirates have the necessary ingredients to do well with outstanding guards, experience and 6-foot-10 Angel Delgado in the post. He lead the nation in rebounding and double-doubles. Khadeen Carrington, Madison Jones and Desi Rodriguez are all very good players.
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03-16-17 | Weber State v. CS-Fullerton +1 | Top | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
Falling short in the Big Sky championship this past Saturday was a big deal for Weber State. That 93-89 overtime loss stung the Wildcats especially the seniors. Weber State had captured the Big Sky tournament two of the previous three seasons earning the right to play in the NCAA Tournament each time. Now the Wildcats have a short turnaround to travel and play Cal State Fullerton in a first round Collegeinsider.com Tournament game. It's a huge letdown for the Wildcats. I don't see the motivation here. Not so with Fullerton. The Titans finished third in the Big West and reached the semifinals of the conference tournament where they lost to eventual champion UC Davis, a team that just upset North Carolina Central on Wednesday in the NCAA Tournament. Fullerton finished strong winning eight of its last 10 regular season games. The Titans were the hottest team in the league down the stretch. They are excited about hosting this matchup. The Titans have an excellent player in Tre Coggins and are 12-3 at home. The Titans are athletic and play strong defense. Weber State has failed to cover in seven of its last eight road games. This is what Weber State coach Randy Rahe said about the Titans, "... We've got a challenge. We're going to have to play really well to be competitive with them."
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03-16-17 | Red Wings v. Coyotes -105 | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Arizona is the better team right now, has the superior goalie in Mike Smith and has home ice. Riding a three-game win streak, the Coyotes have a winning record during their past 20 games. Detroit is 6-12-2 in its last 20 games. The Red Wings are 1-5-1 in their last seven games having just lost at Colorado on Wednesday. Smith should be sharp after being rested in the Coyotes' last game two days ago. He is coming off a shutout and made 37 saves when the Coyotes beat Detroit, 4-1, on Dec. 14 when the Red Wings were playing better. The Red Wings have won only 32 percent of their last 56 road contests.
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03-16-17 | Nets v. Knicks UNDER 221.5 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
It's easy to think this total is too low judging by this past Sunday when the two teams met in Brooklyn and the Nets won, 120-112. But a look inside that game reveals the Nets made 19 of 38 3-point shots. That's 50 percent from long range. The Nets hoist a lot of shots from beyond the arc with their helter-skelter offense, but they rarely connect ranking 24th in 3-point percentage at 34.6 percent. So I see far fewer points being scored in this quick rematch at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks aren't going to the playoffs. But their intensity should be up here after losing to their arch rival. The Knicks just held Indiana to 81 points two days ago. That was the Pacers' lowest point total of the season. So the Knicks are capable of strong defense. The Pacers average just one point fewer per game than the Nets, who rank 13th in scoring at 105.7. Brooklyn is the worst defensive team in the league. However, the Knicks are likely to be without their second-leading scorer, Kristaps Porzingis. He suffered a thigh injury against the Pacers. The Knicks probably don't want to rush their future franchise player back into the lineup in a lost season. The Nets have an injury, too, that could hurt their offense. Shooting guard Sean Kilpatrick, the Nets' third-leading scorer, is questionable due to a sore hamstring. Both teams played this past Tuesday. It's interesting to note that the under has cashed the past eight times the Knicks have played on one day's rest and the under is 17-7-2 the last 26 times the Nets have played with one day's rest.
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03-16-17 | Vanderbilt -115 v. Northwestern | 66-68 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 16 m | Show | |
Not only do I think Vanderbilt is better than Northwestern, but the Commodores have several key intangibles in their favor. First, though, I'm not the only one who believes Vanderbilt is superior. The Commodores were rated higher than Northwestern in the Pomeroy ratings and the RPI rankings have Vanderbilt at 38 compared to 50 for the Wildcats. Never before in their 78-year history have the Wildcats made the NCAA Tournament - until now. Of course there was a huge celebration. Vanderbilt is Big Dance experienced competing in this tournament last year. I'm not sure of Northwestern's mindset especially if it were to fall behind early. Northwestern has a losing record during its past 12 games. Vanderbilt, by contrast, is 11-5 in its last 16 games and 5-1 in its last six. The Commodores have covered eight of their last nine. They also are 17-4 ATS the past 21 times facing foes with a winning mark. Vanderbilt has a strong perimeter defense and is consistent in making 3-pointers. All of the Commodores are adept at canning shots from beyond the arc. That's going to be a problem for Northwestern.
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03-15-17 | Bruins v. Flames -105 | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Calgary has won 10 in a row. So I'm surprised this line is so cheap. A win here would give the Flames a franchise record for consecutive victories. |
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03-15-17 | Blazers +11 v. Spurs | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
Off an embarrassing loss and with every game crucial in their bid to make the playoffs, I believe the Trail Blazers give the Spurs a close game here. San Anotnio is playing well. But the Spurs continually are overpriced. They are 1-6 ATS following a victory. Portland trails Denver by 2 1/2 games for the last playoff spot in the West. The Trail Blazers were held to a season-low 77 points in a 23-point road loss to New Orleans last night. The Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS the past four times when playing without rest. They are still 5-2 in their last seven games despite that humilitating defeat. I see the Trail Blazers bouncing back to play a strong game. Gregg Popovich doesn't care about winning by margins. He just wants to win and move on. The Spurs also have a tendency to play to the level of competion. During their last seven victories they've beaten the Pacers by one as 10-point favorites, the Pelicans by three in overtime as 6 1/2-point chalk, the Timberwolves by seven in overtime as 7 1/2-point favorites, the Rockets by 12, the Kings by 10 as 11 1/2-point favorites after falling behind by 28 points, the Warriors by 22 and the Hawks by eight as seven-point favorites despite committing 21 turnovers. All of these games were at home except the Pelicans matchup. So you get the pattern of the Spurs playing to the level of competition. Minus the Rockets and Warriors - the two opponents the Spurs got excited about - San Antonio went 1-4 ATS with the lone cover coming by one point against Atlanta. |
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03-15-17 | Colorado v. UCF -135 | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
Central Florida has a number of factors going that I like. This NIT matchup is a big deal for the Knights, who were picked to finish eighth in the 11-team American Athletic Conference. Instead, Central Florida went 21-11 and 11-7 in league in Johnny Dawkins first year as coach. Dawkins is familar with Colorado having coached the previous eight seasons for Stanford, Pac-12 rivals of Colorado. The Buffaloes knows far less about Central Florida. The Buffaloes aren't that excited about playing in the NIT having postseason play seven consecutive seasons, including going to the NCAA Tournament in four of those years. The Buffaloes also may not have their full focus getting to spend some of their spring break in Florida. The Knights led the nation in defensive field goal percentage holding foes to 36.2 percent shooting. A big factor is 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall. He was the AAC's Defensive Player of the Year. Colorado hasn't seen anyone who cand defend the rim like Fall.
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03-14-17 | CS Bakersfield +10.5 v. California | Top | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
Losses in six of their last nine games cost California an NCAA Tournament bid. The Bears' consolation prize is the NIT and hosting Cal Bakersfield in this first round game just two days after getting the highly disappointing news they won't be in the Big Dance. Do you think the Bears are excited to play in this game? I sure don't. This is what Cal coach Cuonzo Martin was quoted as saying: "(The players) were very disappointed and that's the challenge now: to get guys' energy levels up to play a game Tuesday night. They're very disappointed, but it goes with the territory." Cal has plenty of distractions, too. There are coaching rumors surrounding Martin. Senior Jabari Bird, Cal's leading scorer, is questionable due to a concussion. Sophomore forward Ivan Rabb, the team's No. 2 scorer, is considering entering the NBA draft. Bakersfield is a worthy enough opponent to spring a straight-up upset. The Roadrunners won the Western Athletic Conference regular-season title. They lost in the conference tournament title game to New Mexico State the day after winning a four-overtime semifinal game. The Roadrunners are the type of hard-nosed defensive team that can be most effective against a down-in-the-dumps opponent. They allowed just 63 points per game on 37.3 field goal shooting. Bakersfield is tournament tested, too. The Roadrunners made the NCAA Tournament last season throwing a scare into Final Four participant Oklahoma trailing by just five points with around four minutes left during their opening round game. The Roadrunners have covered seven of the last eight times in an underdog role and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road contests. These two teams last met on Dec. 28, 2014. That was Martin's first year at Berkeley. Bakersfield won, 55-52. The Roadrunners certainly are capable of repeating that feat especially considering the circumstances. Tuesday Free Play Georgia Tech plus 3 hosting Indiana (NIT) Back in November, Indiana was thought of as a possible Final Four contender after pulling off upsets of Kansas and North Carolina while Georgia Tech was considered a lower-rung ACC team. Rewind four months later to now. Georgia Tech has far exceeded expectations nearly making the NCAA Tournament. Indiana still has Final Four hopes - but for the NIT not NCAA. Of course that's disappointing for the Hoosiers. And it's likely they don't take this first-round NIT game as serious as Georgia Tech. Indiana declined to host this game even though it had the opportunity being the higher seed. The company line for turning down playing this matchup at home was renovations to Assembly Hall. The real reason, though, could be apathy and lack of good crowd support with the students off for spring break. The Hoosiers couldn't overcome injuries down the stretch. They lost six of their last eight regular-season games and were eliminated by Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. So not only is Indiana in bad form, but I can't see the Hoosiers caring much about this game. Another distraction are rumors coach Tom Crean is going to leave Indiana possibly for Missouri. Georgia Tech will be motivated. Yellow Jackets' first-year head coach, Josh Pastner, believes it's a tremendous opportunity not only to play in the postseason, but to defeat a name school with a great basketball tradition. It's a home game for the Yellow Jackets and it's going to be on national television. Pastner is so psyched for this game he's offered to pay for the tickets of any student wanting to attend. As added motivation, the Yellow Jackets want to win so they could meet in-state rival Georgia in the second round if the Bulldogs should beat Belmont on Wednesday as expected. Georgia Tech may have played its most embarrassing home game of the season when it lost to Georgia, 60-43, on Dec. 20. The Yellow Jackets want revenge. The motivation angle works for the Yellow Jackets here, but are they actually good enough to beat Indiana? I certainly believe so with the key being they are playing at McCamish Pavilion. Georgia Tech went 14-4 there against Division I opponents posting home victories against Notre Dame, North Carolina, Florida State and Syracuse. Georgia Tech achieved its success with the nation's seventh most-efficient defense. The Yellow Jackets ranked 15th in defensive field goal percentage. They are led by 6-foot-10 junior center Ben Lammers, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. He averages 14.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game. Indiana is far more offensively inclined. The Hoosiers need to shoot well to win. They had problems with Wisconsin, the last strong defensive club they faced scoring just 60 points against the Badgers. Keep in mind, too, this was very much a down year in the Big Ten. The Yellow Jackets have been underrated all season. They've covered 12 of their last 16 games. They are a worthy underdog here.
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03-14-17 | Pacers -3 v. Knicks | 81-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Rarely are the Pacers a road bargain. But this is the exception. Indiana is in the playoff hunt and Paul George is back playing at his superstar level. Mainly, though, this handicap is a fade on New York. If it weren't for playing Orlando - which has the fourth-worst record in the NBA - the Knicks would be winless since Feb. 27. The Knicks have failed to cover in 11 of their last 16 games. The playoffs are a foregone conclusion for the Knicks and morale is suffering. Team president Phil Jackson continues to try to shove his triangle offense down the players' throats leading to confusion and young star Kristpas Porzingis saying how difficult it is to play under these conditions.
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03-14-17 | Thunder -6 v. Nets | 122-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
This is likely the only time I can write this all season but the Nets actually are fat and happy. They just beat their long-time arch rivals the Knicks, 120-112, at home this past Sunday. Brooklyn hasn't won two games in a row all season. The Nets had not won at home since Dec. 26 before defeating the Knicks. They are 3-12 during their past 15 home contests. Oklahoma City is a bad road club. But the Thunder are three tiers above the Nets and won't be overlooking them. Oklahoma City needs victories to overtake the Jazz and Clippers to gain the fourth-seed in the playoffs. The Thunder should have their full focus having been idle since Saturday and not playing again until Thursday. Russell Westbrook is having a record season. He should put up monster numbers against the Nets' last-ranked defense. The Thunder also are getting outstanding play from shooting guard Victor Oladipo, who is averaging 19.3 points while connecting on 55.3 percent of his shots from the floor since returning from a back inju
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03-14-17 | Blackhawks +102 v. Canadiens | 4-2 | Win | 102 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
It's rare to get the Blackhawks as a 'dog. So I'll take advantage here. Chicago is 13-3 in its last 16 games. |
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03-13-17 | Magic v. Kings UNDER 207 | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
This total is too high considering how inept these offenses are. Orlando ranks second-to-last in scoring averaging less than 100 points a game. The Magic rank among the bottom four teams in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point percentage. The Magic beat Sacramento, 102-94, when the teams previously met back in November. The Kings had DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay back then while Orlando had Serge Ibaka. Those three players all had good scoring games in that first meeting. None of them will be playing here. Orlando is trying to rely on unreliable Terrence Ross. He's shooting 38.3 percent from the floor in nine games since joining the Magic from the Raptors in a trade involving Ibaka. Ross is a decent defender, though, so he's a plus for the under. Ross is going to see big minutes because the Magic are committed to finding out if he can be a legitimate starter for next season. Sacramento virtually has no weapons minus Cousins and Gay. The Kings have lost eight of nine since giving Cousins away to the Pelicans. Sacramento is lost offensively. Darren Collison and Willie Cauley-Stein have failed to step up as hoped. The under has cashed in nine of Sacramento's last 12 games. In their last eight games, the Kings have scored 85 points against the Hornets. Charlotte allows 104.3 points per game. Sacramento put up 88 points on the Timberwolves, who give up an average of 104.8 points. Sacramento could only manage 100 points versus the Nets, who have the worst defense in the NBA surrendering 114.1 points. The Kings played the Nuggets twice during this span. Denver yields 110.9 points a game. Yet the Kings could manage just 92 and 96 points against the Nuggets. I do see the Kings playing hard here trying to stop an eight-game losing streak. But that intensity will be on the defensive end. The Magic have a rare victory opportunity, too, but I see that translating more into a defensive battle. |
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03-13-17 | Hurricanes +130 v. Islanders | 8-4 | Win | 130 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
The spot sets up well for the road 'dog Hurricanes, who have beaten the Islanders seven of the past nine times when visiting. This is the Islanders' first home game in more than three weeks. They just returned from a nine-game road trip on Sunday so their focus and attention could be distracted being away from home for so long. The Hurricanes are 5-0-2 in their last seven games versus the Islanders. They have enough offense to take advantage of faltering Islanders goalie Thomas Greiss, who has a hit a wall with an .888 save percentage in his last seven games. Greiss was pulled in the Islanders' past game after allowing four goals on 18 shots.
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03-13-17 | Bulls +7.5 v. Hornets | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm a go at 7 1/2 for the Bulls. Jimmy Butler and Dwayne Wade have too much pride not to show up following the Bulls' awful 100-80 loss to the Celtics on Sunday. At least that was an early start time so there will be less fatigue on Chicago. The Bulls are in desperation mode having lost a season-high fifth consecutive game and hanging on to a playoff spot just barely ahead of the Hornets. It's not like Charlotte has been playing well going 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games and 3-10-1 ATS versus foes with a losing straight-up record. This also marks the Hornets' fourth game in six days and they may not have Nicolas Batum, who is questionable due to a migraine headache.
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03-13-17 | Blue Jackets v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
The spot sets up well for the road 'dog Hurricanes, who have beaten the Islanders seven of the past nine times when visiting. This is the Islanders' first home game in more than three weeks. They just returned from a nine-game road trip on Sunday so their focus and attention could be distracted being away from home for so long. The Hurricanes are 5-0-2 in their last seven games versus the Islanders. They have enough offense to take advantage of faltering Islanders goalie Thomas Greiss, who has a hit a wall with an .888 save percentage in his last seven games. Greiss was pulled in the Islanders' past game after allowing four goals on 18 shots.
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03-12-17 | Capitals -113 v. Ducks | 2-5 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
The Capitals are in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row. Washington hasn't dropped four straight all season. Despite this, the Capitals have gotten off 22 more shots on goals than their last three opponents. Washington has won 11 of the past 15 times versus foes with a winning record. The Capitals will have star goalie Braden Holtby back in net after he was rested on Saturday. The Ducks traditionally have problems versus the Capitals losing the past six times they've hosted them. Washington is superior to Anaheim and is overdue to win. It comes here.
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03-12-17 | Blazers v. Suns UNDER 231 | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
The Trail Blazers aren't going to look to run with the Suns after last night's overtime game against the Wizards. It's also Portland's third game in four days. The Suns are a terrible defensive team, but they have held four of their last eight opponents to 106 points or less, including limiting the Mavericks to 98 points during their last game. This has been an under series, too, recently with six of the past eight going below the total.
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03-12-17 | Knicks -112 v. Nets | 112-120 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Even though this is a rivalry game, the Nets may not have their full focus. That's because this is the Nets' first home game since All-Star break ended. Brooklyn has been on the road for its past eight games. The Nets have been terrible when they've been at home going 0-16 SU, 3-13 ATS. The Knicks are just 3-5 since the All-Star break and off a bad 112-92 road loss to the Pistons on Saturday. But the Knicks still hold playoff hopes and are superior to the Nets with the two best players on the court in Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis. The Knicks are 2-0 this season versus the Nets winning by five points at Brooklyn and by 15 at home. The Knicks have covered six of the last eight in the series.
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03-12-17 | Rhode Island v. VCU | Top | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
I'm going to roll with Rhode Island, which is playing its best basketball. The Rams are peaking winning their last seven games. Included among these victories is a 69-59 home victory against VCU that was achieved five games ago on Feb. 25. The Rams prevailed by double-digits in that win as 3 1/2-point favorites despite making just 35 percent of their shots from the floor. Rhode Island needs this victory to gain an automatic seed into the NCAA Tournament. A loss here to VCU could keep Rhode Island from making the tournament. VCU had to go overtime to beat Richmond in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Saturday. That was the later game, too. Rhode Island had a much easier time waltzing past Davidson by 24 points in the earlier Saturday semifinal game. I like that Rhode Island is hitting its ceiling, has less of a fatigue factor than VCU and is deep in the backcourt.
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03-11-17 | New Mexico State -2.5 v. CS Bakersfield | Top | 70-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is the big rivalry matchup in the Western Athletic Conference. New Mexico State is playing at a high level winning its last four games all by 14 points or more. The Aggies have 27 wins, tying for the most victories in school history. The Aggies have revenge for a buzzer-beater loss to Cal State Bakersfield in the WAC Tournament Finals last season. The Aggies had won the previous four conference tournaments before that defeat. Only one New Mexico State player logged more than 33 minutes in the Aggies' 78-60 waltz over Missouri-Kansas City in Friday night's semifinal in Las Vegas. Bakersfield had it far, far rougher in the other semifinal game Friday night. The Roadrunners nipped Utah Valley, 81-80, in four overtimes! Jaylin Airington, the Roadrunners' leading scorer, played 49 minutes. Dedrick Basile, the team's third-leading scorer, was on the court for 53 minutes. Utah Valley was 6-8 in conference and only seeded fourth because Grand Canyon was ineligible for the postseason. The Aggies play an up-tempo style. The timing couldn't be worse for Bakersfield. I believe the Aggies are the superior team and now they have a huge situational element in their favor.
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03-11-17 | Wizards v. Blazers -3 | 125-124 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
Both Washington and Portland are playing well. But the Wizards are in a vulnerable spot here. The Wizards went to 3-0 on their current road trip after rallying from a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the Kings in overtime last night. Portland has won four in a row. This is a crucial game for the Trail Blazers, who go on the road for five games following this matchup. The Trail Blazers have one of the few starting backcourts that can match the Wizards' star power and their front line has been upgraded with the addition of Jusuf Nurkic, who's playing the best ball of his career. The Trail Blazers have dominated the Wizards in Portland winning nine of the past 11 times there while going 8-3 ATS. Portland also has revenge for a 120-101 road loss to the Wizards on Jan. 16 when it had to play an usual early start day game due to Martin Luther King Day. That probably contributed to a very flat effort.
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03-10-17 | Pacers v. Bucks OVER 207.5 | Top | 85-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Both teams prefer an up-tempo pace and it's definitely not too much to ask each to reach at least 104 points. The Pacers average 105 points. The Bucks surrender just under 105 points. Milwaukee is averaging 107.2 points during its last four games. On the season, the Bucks average 105.2 points. The Pacers have a below average defense. There were 216 points scored when the teams met in Indiana last month and there were 232 points put up when the Bucks hosted the Pacers early in the season. The Pacers are off one of their best offensive games of the season, a 115-98 victory against the Pistons. Indiana had 27 assists in that game while shooting 50 percent from the floor. Paul George is shooting 61 percent from the field during his last three games. Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to put up great offensive numbers and he's getting help from a now-healthy-back-in-sync Kris Middleton, who is shooting above 58 percent from the floor in his last five games.
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03-10-17 | Sabres v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a bad line. The total should be lined at 5 not 5 1/2. Columbus goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is playing great recording three straight shutouts. The Blue Jackets have given up only six goals during their last seven games. Buffalo ranks 22nd in goals scored. The Sabres are a better defensive club and Columbus has scored only eight goals in its last five games. The under has cashed 10 of the last 14 times the Blue Jackets have played at home.
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03-10-17 | TCU v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 63-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Tremendous job by TCU in stunning top-seeded Kansas, 85-82, yesterday in the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Unfortunately for the Horned Frogs they have no time to celebrate such a heady accomplishment. Iowa State is by far the superior team and catches TCU in a big letdown spot. The Horned Frogs had never defeated a top-three overall ranked team in 17 previous tries. They had entered the Big 12 tournament riding a seven-game losing streak. TCU was 2-10 the past 12 times versus .500 foes before upsetting the Jayhawks. Now the Horned Frogs' season has been made. The Cyclones are 7-1 in their last eight games, including rolling past TCU, 84-71, at home on Feb. 18. Iowa State has that needed excellent senior point guard in Monte Morris, who is playing with a chip on his shoulder after not being named a finalist for the Bob Cousy Award for nation's top point guard.
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03-10-17 | Michigan v. Purdue -3 | 74-70 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Sometimes a near death experience can give you an emotional lift and provide a spark to having a great day. That was the case for the Michigan basketball team on Thursday. The Wolverines arrived the morning of their Thursday morning game against Illinois in their Big Ten Conference game and shot 53.6 percent from the floor in dispatching the Illini, 75-55. It was a remarkable performance from the Wolverines considering the harrowing circumstances they had just endured. Michigan's team plane left for Washington D.C., site of the tournament, on Wednesday. However, the charter plane careened off the runway during takeoff. After enduring a sleepless night with travel plans not firmed up, the Wolverines were able to catch an early Thursday morning bumpy flight and then endure a 90-minute bus ride to Verizon Center. Despite not having the benefit of the usual film work and walk-through game preparations, Michigan took the court after the start time was pushed back 20 minutes and played one of its finest games. The Wolverines were loose knowing how fortunate they were. But Michigan also was a five-point favorite in that game. Now, the Wolverines have to play an early morning game again this time against a far superior opponent and without the adrenaline and life rush they experienced yesterday. The Wolverines also have the contentment of knowing they are almost certain to be picked for the NCAA Tournament. Purdue is 8-1 in its last nine games. The Boilermakers' lone loss during this span came to Michigan on the road on Feb. 25. Purdue wants revenge. Prior to that defeat, the Boilermakers were 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times facing Michigan. Purdue has made the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament each of the past two years. The Boilermakers have the best player on the court in Big Ten Player of the Year Caleb Swanigan. Purdue has been a huge money-maker when laying points going 21-7-3 (75 percent) the past 31 times.
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03-09-17 | San Diego State v. Boise State +1.5 | 87-68 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
San Diego State was lucky to escape a monster upset try by UNLV last night and even luckier to cover a big spread thanks to overtime. Don't look for the Aztecs to be as lucky this time around. Boise State is the more rested squad having last played on Saturday and the Broncos are the better team with a cast of veterans, who have proven themselves on the road. Boise State has defeated a number of foes away from home, including Loyola Marymount, Utah State, UNLV at Thomas & Mack where this game is at, Wyoming, Colorado State and Air Force. San Diego State's fan base is down from past seasons. The Aztecs have a terrible 8-15 ATS mark, including 2-7 ATS on the road. And that includes their lucky cover against UNLV yesterday. That was the Aztecs' first away victory in more than a month. The Aztecs got away with shooting 33 percent from the floor, but were bailed out by making 21 of 26 free throws for 81 percent. On the season, San Diego State ranks 313th in shooting percentage and makes 70.4 percent of its free throws. Boise State averages eight more points per game than San Diego State and is the better free throw shooting team.
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03-09-17 | Senators v. Coyotes +120 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Arizona isn't going to the playoffs, but this is a good spot for the home 'dog Coyotes. Ottawa is playing for the fourth time in six days and without rest after beating the Stars, 5-2, last night. Ottawa is 5-16 the past 21 times when playing for the fourth time in six days. Arizona has won eight of its last 14 home games. Only two of the Coyotes' home defeats during this span were by more than one goal. This should be a competitive game so I'll take the home 'dog in the good spot.
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03-09-17 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 114-98 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Neither team is playing well, but this game is far more crucial for the Grizzlies and they catch the Clippers carrying a heavy fatigue rating. This marks the Clippers' fifth game in seven days and second in two night. The Clippers have failed to cover five of the last six times when playing without rest. The Grizzlies are two game behind the Clippers for the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference. Memphis is off an embarrassing 122-109 home loss on Monday to the Nets, the worst team in the NBA. Memphis has had two full days to live with that loss. So the Grizzlies should be rested, well-prepared and fired-up. Mike Conley has outperformed Chris Paul recently averaging 29 points during his last five games. The Clippers were outrebounded by 14 boards and outscored by 22 points in the paint by the Timberwolves in a 107-91 road loss last night. That's an ominous sign for the Clippers taking on the physical Grizzlies, who rank fourth defensively and ninth in rebounding margin. The Clippers are 19th in rebounding margin and 13th defensively by comparison.
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03-09-17 | CS-Northridge v. CS-Fullerton -2 | Top | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
These teams have gone in different directions leading up to the conference tournament. Cal State-Fullerton is 8-2 in its last 10 Big West games, covering six of their last seven. Cal State-Northridge has dropped six of its last seven. The Matadors' losses have coincided with losing big man Rakim Lubin to a torn Achilles on Feb. 4. He was the team's second-leading rebounder. The Titans have a size advantage and a very good senior guard in Tre Coggins. Fullerton also holds a talent edge, which was proven when the teams met this past Saturday at Northridge. The Titans beat the Matadors, 86-78. Northridge is 3-13 ATS following a loss.
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03-08-17 | Celtics +9 v. Warriors | 99-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Golden State isn't the same powerhouse without Kevin Durant. The Warriors still can win, but they're having trouble covering margins going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. This isn't an ideal spot for Golden State either. The Warriors just returned from a five-game road trip that ended Monday night. This is their first home game since Feb. 25 and then they go right back on the road for two games, including a big Saturday night game at San Antonio. Boston usually steps up in situations like this going 13-6-2 ATS versus opponents with a winning home record. The Celtics are a frustrated lot right now losing on a buzzer-beater to the Suns on Sunday and then letting a 13-point second-half lead slip against the Clippers on Monday. The Celtics played both of those games without Al Horford, who is expected back from an elbow injury for this game. Boston already has underrated guard Avery Bradley back from injury.
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03-08-17 | Kings +15 v. Spurs | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show | |
The record shows the Spurs have won eight in a row. But San Antonio has just been getting by and has much bigger games on deck than this one. In their last four games, the Spurs have defeated the Pacers by one point at home, defeated the Timberwolves at home in overtime, edged the Pelicans in overtime on the road and slipped past the Rockets by two at home. The Spurs covered none of these games. The Kings are in stop-the-pain mode losers of five in a row. Sacramento is capable of providing a scare. The Kings no longer have DeMarcus Cousins, their best player. But the trade-off is extra line value. Just two games ago, the Kings lost by only one point in overtime to the Jazz. The Kings have covered in five of their last six visits to San Antonio. The Spurs just got done holding off the Rockets in a marquee matchup two days ago. They are at the Thunder on Thursday. Oklahoma City is extremely tough at home. Following that matchup, the Spurs return home to host Golden State on Saturday in what shapes up as the biggest game of the season. So this is a prime letdown and look ahead spot for San Antonio. It wouldn't be surprising if Gregg Popovich rested some of his starters, or at least drastically reduced their minutes in this game. Note, too, the Spurs are 1-5 ATS the past six times they've hosted a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Note that word just has come out that Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge will be rested and won't play. The line has come down because of that information. I still like the Kings at plus 11 1/2 and higher. |
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03-08-17 | UNLV v. San Diego State -9 | Top | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
I can't see UNLV staying within double-digits of San Diego State in this first round Mountain West Conference Tournament game. The matchup is at Thomas & Mack Center, home of UNLV. But that won't matter. The Rebels lost their fan support weeks ago on their way to losing 12 of their last 15 games. The Rebels are poorly coached, don't play smart and aren't physically tough. Those are all fatal weaknesses going against San Diego State. The Aztecs are well-coached, rank 16th defensively in the country and have reached the tournament finals seven of the past eight years. UNLV is likely to be missing forward Tyrell Green, who is doubtful due to a knee injury. He didn't practice on Tuesday. Green is UNLV's second-leading scorer and No. 3 on the team in rebounding. The Rebels' frontcourt is even more vulnerable to the Aztecs without Green. San Diego State has defeated UNLV 10 consecutive times, including winning both games this season by 13 points each. UNLV is 2-8 ATS the past 10 times when taking between seven and 12 1/2 points.
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03-07-17 | Blazers v. Thunder -6.5 | 126-121 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
It's difficult to take Oklahoma City as a serious contender in the Western Conference because of its 12-20 road mark. But the Thunder are near elite status when playing at home going 23-8 at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The Thunder return home in stop-the-pain mode after going 0-3 SU and ATS in their three-game road trip that ended Sunday. The Thunder began that trip with a 114-109 loss to Portland this past Thursday. So add short revenge motivation to the list of incentives for Oklahoma City. Portland is similar to Oklahoma City in being terrible on the road losing 22 of 32. Translating into point spreads, the Trail Blazers are 8-20 ATS during their past 28 away contests. Oklahoma City is 21-8-1 ATS during its past 30 home games. The Thunder have covered 16 of the last 22 times versus opponents with a losing record. It's a plus for the Thunder that they should have back shooting guard Victor Oladipo, who didn't go on their three-game road trip because of back spasms. He practiced Monday. Portland was supposed to play last night, but its game at Minnesota was postponed due to condensation on the floor. So the Trail Blazers flew to Minnesota, sat around and then flew to Oklahoma City. They might be fresher physically by not playing, but not necessarily mentally with the rare postponement of a game after the trip already was made.
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03-07-17 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 223.5 | 126-121 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Thunder coach Billy Donovan is really stressing defense in this game, the Thunder's first game back from an 0-3 road trip. Oklahoma City lost all three games by playing poor defense. Look for the Thunder to step up defensively now that they're back at home where they've held their past three opponents to an average of 103 points. Oklahoma City upgraded its backcourt defense by recently signing veteran Norris Cole. He could see more minutes than usual because of Portland's high-scoring backcourt tandem of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Oklahoma City hosted Portland on Feb. 5 and won, 105-99. The teams last played against each other this past Thursday in Portland. The Trail Blazers won, 114-109. That total opened a tick lower at 221. Portland shot nearly 50 percent from the floor in that game and the teams combined to shoot 68 free throws making 81.3 percent from the line. Now the total opened higher and it's doubtful the teams will shoot that many free throws again. There were 49 free throws attempted during the Feb. 5 game. That 81.3 percent free throw percentage is high, too. Portland shoots 77.9 percent from the free throw line on the season while the Thunder are a bottom-six free throw shooting club at 74.8 percent. |
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03-07-17 | Rangers v. Panthers -122 | 5-2 | Loss | -122 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
Normally I don't like to go against the Rangers on the road especially when laying a price. But I'll do it here based on the spot. Florida needs this home win bad. The Panthers are two points out of the second wild-card spot in the East. They are off an upset loss to the Stars this past Saturday in the opener of their current three-game homestand. They host the Wild on Friday so they very well could go 0-3 during this homestand if they don't win this game. Yes, the Rangers are strong on the road. But this marks New York's third game in four days and second in two nights. The Rangers have failed to cover the past four times when playing for the third time in four days. New York played well in nipping Tampa Bay, 1-0 in overtime, on the road last night. That game took a toll both physically and mentally. Backup goalie Antti Raanta was brilliant in net. I like him better than New York's starting goalie Henrik Lundqvist, who is likely to be back in goal today. The Rangers have lost four of the past five times following a victory. The Rangers have been without leading goal scorer Michael Grabner and their offense has suffered. Only once in their last 10 games have the Rangers scored more than two goals.
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03-06-17 | BYU v. St. Mary's -6.5 | Top | 50-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
BYU's lack of depth and inexperience should prove fatal against Saint Mary's especially in such a short turnaround. The Cougars just defeated Loyola Marymount, 89-81, in the quarterfinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament on Saturday. Saint Mary's has shot better than 50 percent during 18 of its 30 games. The Gaels beat the Cougars, 81-68, at home and 70-57 at Provo this season. Both of those games were convincing double-digit wins for the Gaels, who led the Cougars by 25 points in the latter matchup played on Feb. 18. Saint Mary's has been golden in this spread range covering seven of the last eight times when favored between seven and 12 1/2-points. |
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03-06-17 | Pacers v. Hornets -3.5 | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
Charlotte has been playing better since coming out of the All-Star break. The Hornets have played their first six games on the road following the All-Star Game. They went 3-3, but could have gone 5-1 losing two of the games in overtime. Now the Hornets are home for the first time in three weeks, out of a playoff spot by three games. The Hornets trail the sixth-place Pacers by five games making this matchup crucial for them. Charlotte isn't going to lack for motivation and the Hornets catch the Pacers without rest and in a letdown spot. Indiana came from six down with 1:43 left to nip Atlanta, 97-96, on Sunday. The Pacers pulled the road victory out on a 3-pointer by Glenn Robinson III with 0.6 seconds left. This marks the Pacers' fifth consecutive road game, too. Paul George is the best player on the court, but the Hornets have the next two best players in Kemba Walker and Nicholas Batum. The Hornets also have a defensive stopper to slow down George in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Monday Free Play Rockets plus 4 at Spurs Kevin Durant's injury has opened up the gate for San Antonio - and Houston. The Rockets are in the argument now for best team in the NBA. Houston has won eight of its last 10 games. James Harden has a league-best 49 double-doubles. The Rockets have more firepower on their bench adding Lou Williams to go with Eric Gordon. Those are the two leading scorers in the league among reserves. Unsung big man Clint Capela is healthy again and playing well. Houston is 2-0 this month crushing a pair of Western Conference contenders - the Clippers with Chris Paul on the road, 122-103, and Grizzlies at home, 123-108, two days ago. San Antonio has won seven in a row. However, the Spurs' current form doesn't match the Rockets. The Spurs' last three games were a one-point home win against the Pacers, an overtime road victory against the Pelicans and an overtime triumph versus the Timberwolves. San Antonio failed to cover any of those games. Yes, you can say the Rockets are stepping up going from playing good teams to an elite one. But the Spurs are stepping up even more in class. The Rockets are at least two levels higher than the Pacers, Pelicans and Timberwolves. The Rockets have covered 21 of their last 31 road games. They are the fresher team coming off two blowout victories. Houston is No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 115.3 points, nine points more game than what the Spurs average. San Antonio is 2-1 versus Houston this season. The Spurs' victories have been by an average of four points with the last occurring on Dec. 20. Houston has improved since then. |
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03-06-17 | Sharks v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
These teams met twice during the latter part of January and there were a combined seven goals scored each time. Look for another high-scoring game here. Winnipeg is an over the total beast going above the total 77 percent of the time during its last 23 games. A combination of outstanding goal scorers and subpar defense and goaltending will do that. The Jets are averaging four goals per game during their last eight games. The Sharks have scored three or more goals in eight of their last 11 games.
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03-06-17 | Bucks v. 76ers OVER 213 | 112-98 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
The over has cashed the past four times these teams have met. Look for that trend to continue. |
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03-05-17 | Michigan v. Nebraska OVER 138 | 93-57 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
The last time these two teams played the total went over by 43 1/2 points in regulation. Neither team has stepped up their defensive play. |
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03-05-17 | Canucks v. Ducks -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This has blowout written all over it so I'm laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line. Vancouver played its guts out in hanging on to a 4-3 road victory against the Kings last night. The Canucks were outshot, 44-21, and outplayed but survived in large part because of outstanding goaltending by Ryan Miller. The Canucks are not in shape for this quick turnaround. They are playing without rest and for the third time in four days. Miller will be exhausted if he has to play again today. If he doesn't than mediocre backup Jacob Markstrom would be in net. Vancouver has lost the past five times following a victory. Even with the win against the Kings, the Canucks are just 9-20-1-2 on the road. Long-term, Vancouver is 20-45 away. Anaheim is 20-7-2-1 at home with wins in four of its last five home contests. The Ducks got the rust off from their bye week beating the Maple Leafs, 5-2, at home this past Friday. The Ducks can't afford to take Vancouver lightly as their next five games are against the Predators, Blackhawks on the road, Blues on the road, Capitals and Blues again. |
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03-05-17 | Jazz v. Kings +9.5 | 110-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
This isn't the best of spots for the Jazz. They beat the Nets at home by 15 points this past Friday and host the Pelicans on Monday. It's easy for them to look past the rebuilding Kings. Sacramento should prove dangerous here, though. The Kings have been idle for three days. That not only has given them some much needed rest time, but also a chance to get more in sync following the trade of DeMarcus Cousins. Sacramento has covered the past seven times following having three days rest. The Kings were embarrassed at home in their last game, a 109-100 loss to the Nets this past Wednesday. Shooting guard Aarron Affalo returned in that game after missing the previous three games with a hamstring injury. Utah could be short-handed in the backcourt if Rodney Hood has to miss a third consecutive game. The Jazz have failed to cover in 17 of their last 21 Western Conference games and are overpriced here.
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03-04-17 | Wolves v. Spurs UNDER 205 | Top | 90-97 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
Defensive guru Tom Thibodeau is finally getting his Timberwolves to play tough defense. Minnesota has held four of its last five foes under 100 points and three of them under 90 points. The only exception was a shootout against the high-scoring Rockets. I don't see a shootout here at all. The Spurs are off a grueling overtime road win against the Pelicans last night. Gregg Popovich isn't going to want his team running against the young legs of the Timberwolves. So look for a slow-paced, deliberate type attack from San Antonio. The Spurs are playing tough defense themselves holding seven of their last eight opponents to less than 100 points.
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03-04-17 | Dayton v. George Washington +4.5 | 81-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
George Washington is playing well winning four in a row. So this line could hold up even if Dayton wasn't caught in a monster letdown spot. |
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03-04-17 | Blackhawks v. Predators OVER 5.5 | 5-3 | Win | 102 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
The Blackhawks have scored four or more goals in 10 of their last 12 games. But the Predators have been the highest-scoring team in the NHL during the past 30 days. Nashville has scored at least four goals in nine of its last 13 games. If you think this has resulted in a lot of overs you would be right. The over has cashed in 11 of Nashville's last 12 games. The over is 7-0 in Nashville's last seven home contests. The Blackhawks have gone over in nine of their last 12 games. Chicago is likely to be facing the Predators' backup goalie, Juuse Saros. The over is 5-0 the past five times he has been in goal.
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03-04-17 | UNLV v. Fresno State -12 | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
UNLV is at one of its lowest points ever. The Rebels are in a letdown spot, too, following an upset home win against Utah State that halted a nine-game losing streak. UNLV went 1-7-1 ATS during the losing skid. |
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03-04-17 | LSU +9.5 v. Mississippi State | 76-88 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
I see a clear buy sign on LSU taking this boatload of points against a Mississippi State that has fallen down and can't get up. The Bulldogs have dropped seven games in a row. They are 1-4 the past five times as home chalk. They haven't been this high of a favorite since Jan. 25. |
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03-04-17 | Illinois -3.5 v. Rutgers | 59-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
This is the time to look for hot teams with strong motivation. Illinois is one such team. The Illini have won four in a row and five of their last six putting themselves on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Illinois is doing it with defense holding opponents to under 40 percent shooting from the floor during its last seven games. This is an excellent matchup for the Illini to stay hot. Rutgers ranks 321st in scoring at 65.8 points per game. The Scarlet Knights rate among the bottom teams, too, in field goal percentage at 41.2. The Scarlet Knights just want the season to be finished. They have dropped six in a row while ranking last in the Big Ten with a 2-15 mark. Illinois has achieved good recent success in these types of matchups covering six of the last seven times versus sub .500 foes. Rutgers has failed to cover six of the last seven times, too, as a home 'dog of between one and 6 1/2 points. Note, too, Illinois has covered in each of the past four meetings with Rutgers.
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03-03-17 | Maple Leafs +140 v. Ducks | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm attracted to this 'dog price with a Maple Leafs squad that is 8-2 versus the Ducks during the past 10 meetings going 4-1 when playing in Anaheim. The Maple Leafs are in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row - with three coming via overtime or a shootout. Backup goalie Curtis McElhinney will start for Toronto, but I'm fine with that. He has a .938 save percentage for Toronto giving up two goals or fewer in four of his six starts. The Ducks are coming off their league mandated bye week so they figure to be rusty having last played six days ago.
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03-03-17 | Thunder -4 v. Suns | 111-118 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
Look for order to be restored following last night when the Suns upset the Hornets and the Thunder lost to the Trail Blazers. Oklahoma City isn't nearly as good on the road, but the Thunder are still several tiers above the Suns when playing away. Phoenix is tied with the Lakers for the worst record in the Western Conference. The Suns are going with youth at the expense of veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight. The Thunder got stronger at the trade deadline picking up Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott to go with the return from injury of Enes Kanther, who is averaging 17.7 points and 9.3 rebounds in his last three games. I see the fired-up and more experienced Thunder dominating the boards while Russell Westbrook has another big game against the second-worst defensive team in the NBA. Oklahoma City has dominated this series winning 19 of the last 22, including the past six.
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03-03-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Detroit -1.5 | Top | 85-60 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
UW-Milwaukee coach LaVall Jordan knew he was going to have it rough in his first season as head coach of the Panthers. He was hired under difficult circumstances and the Panthers had a dreadful season going 8-23 while finishing last in the Horizon League at 4-14. But now can the Panthers turn things around in the conference tournament opening today against Detroit Mercy? No. The Panthers are a dead team losers of nine in a row. They just hosted Detroit Mercy two games ago on Feb. 24 losing 81-74. The Titans aren't exactly as a powerhouse, but they clearly are better than UWM. So I'm surprised at this low of a spread especially with the game being playing at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit. The Titans finished two games better than the Panthers in conference and have the two best players on the court in Corey Allen and Jaleel Hogan.
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03-02-17 | Manhattan v. Rider -6 | 68-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm going to ride Rider here. Rider has won and covered its past three games winning each game by double digits. This includes a 93-82 victory over the Jaspers on Feb. 22 in this spread range at home. The Broncs are peaking at the right time. |
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03-02-17 | Hornets -3 v. Suns | Top | 103-120 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
Charlotte made the playoffs last season and can't afford to lose to the Suns in its bid to make the postseason again this season. Right now they're 2 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the East. Yes, the Hornets appear down from a year ago. But they've been involved in some games with deceiving scores, have underrated Cody Zeller back in the lineup now and the Suns are the second-worst team in the NBA behind only the Nets. Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum are Charlotte's best players. But Zeller's return makes a difference because he provides defense at center. Charlotte is 23-17 when Zeller has played. He returned to the lineup in the Hornets' last game, a 109-104 win against the Lakers on Tuesday. Charlotte is 3-17 when Zeller hasn't played. Big man Frank Kaminsky also has been playing well for Charlotte averaging 19.9 points and 7.8 rebounds in his last 10 games. The Hornets were five-point road favorites against the Lakers. This line is shorter and the Suns have a better record than the Lakers. Phoenix has made no secret that it is playing for the future giving minutes to youngsters such as Alan Williams, Tyler Ulis and Derrick Jones Jr. at the expense of veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight. The Suns last played at home on Feb. 15. So their focus and concentration may not be all there especially with so many inexperienced players in the rotation now. The Suns rank 29th in defense. They've allowed triple digits in 22 of their last 23 games. Charlotte ranks 10th defensively yielding an average of eight fewer points per game than Phoenix.
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03-02-17 | Islanders v. Stars UNDER 6 | 5-4 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Expect a focused, defensive effort from the Islanders, who were embarrassed 7-0 by the Blue Jackets this past Saturday. New York hasn't played since. The Stars are far from the offensive force they were last season. They rank 12th in scoring and have a bunch of new faces following the trade deadline. That means an adjustment period to their various lines. Dallas has broken the 3-goal barrier only three times in its last 12 games. |
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03-02-17 | Islanders +111 v. Stars | 5-4 | Win | 111 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Dallas is having a down season, was a seller at the trade deadline and is a miserable 6-22 following a victory. The Islanders were 12-4-2 before losing 7-0 to the Blue Jackets in their last game. They've had five days to stew about that game. I see the Islanders being more than ready in this matchup. They have played well against Western Conference teams going 11-2-3.
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03-02-17 | Devils v. Capitals OVER 5 | 0-1 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
The Capitals are an over machine when playing at home. They have gone under the total just once during their past 12 home contests while averaging 5.1 goals per game during their last dozen games at Verizon Center. |
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03-02-17 | Wild v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
The Wild has gone over the total during their last four games. This is no big surprise as Minnesota has been a big over team all season going 25-6-3 to the over in its last 34 games. The over has cashed in eight of Minnesota's last nine games versus the East. |
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03-01-17 | Washington University +24 v. UCLA | 66-98 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
UCLA can mail this one in and still win easily. But I don't see the Bruins doing it by this large of a spread. The Bruins just avenged a home loss by beating then fourth-ranked Arizona, 77-72, this past Saturday. Despite the huge victory, the Bruins' chances of winning the Pac-12 regular season title are remote trailing both Oregon and Arizona by 1 1/2 games despite beating them both since Feb. 9. Washington has dropped 10 in a row, but the Huskies definitely want to perform better than when the Bruins beat them at home, 107-66, on Feb. 4. Huskies coach Lorenzo Romar called out his team for lack of effort in that game saying they had no fight in them. So I'm looking for a spirited effort by the Huskies coupled with a lackluster one by the Bruins. UCLA has been a money-burner as chalk going 4-12 ATS in that role the past 16 times while Washington is 12-5 ATS as an underdog of 13 points or more.
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03-01-17 | Pacers v. Spurs OVER 207.5 | 99-100 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
The two teams just met on Feb. 13 and 216 points were scored with San Antonio winning, 110-106. The Spurs played that game without rest and in action for the fourth time in six days. Now they're home and haven't played since Sunday. The Spurs are averaging 105.2 points in their last four games. The Pacers have a bottom 10 defense. |
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03-01-17 | Nuggets v. Bucks -2.5 | 110-98 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot in their respective conferences. The setting is ripe for Milwaukee to get this home victory, while covering this small spread. The Nuggets are a bit fat and happy after upsetting the Bulls on the road in grand fashion last night, 125-107. Following this road matchup, the Nuggets get to play seven of their next eight games at Pepsi Center their home court. Denver has failed to cover the past six times following a victory. The Nuggets also are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times when playing in the second of back-to-back games. The Nuggets will be minus injured power forward Kenneth Faried. That's a key missing player because the Bucks' strength is frontcourt scoring and the greatness of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who should be pumped coming off a rare bad game. The Bucks also will have shooting guard Khris Middleton back in the lineup after he missed their last game with a hamstring injury. The Bucks are in revenge mode for a road loss to the Nuggets last month. They have defeated the Nuggets by an average of 13 points the past two times they've hosted them.
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03-01-17 | Pistons v. Pelicans -133 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The Pelicans have yet to win in three games since acquiring DeMarcus Cousins, who is suspended for this game. I see the Pelicans stepping up without Cousins to post this home victory behind Anthony Davis and point guard Jrue Holiday, who was playing much better before Cousins came on board. Not only do I see the Pelicans stepping up at home while finding a better offensive rhythm, but also factoring that the Pistons are caught in a flat spot. Detroit is 2-7 in its last nine road games and has covered only once in its last five visits to New Orleans. The Pistons also are 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. Detroit is off a home overtime victory against Portland last night. The Pistons had lost eight in a row to New Orleans before beating the Pelicans,118-98, at the start of February. That gives the Pelicans revenge motivation, too, along with trying to earn a playoff spot. Free Wednesday Play Raptors minus 4 hosting Wizards Great win for the Wizards last night at home against the Warriors. Unfortunately for Washington it doesn't get any time to savor beating the best team in basketball. That's because the Wizards take to the road to meet the hot again Raptors. Toronto has won four in a row and is highly motivated to hold home-court in this important home-and-away matchup, which resumes again on Friday with the two teams playing at Verizon Center, home of the Wizards. The Raptors are strong at home as evidenced by their 21-10 record at Air Canada Centre. Washington is 10-15 on the road. The Wizards are 3-7 when playing without rest. This also is their third game in four days. Guards John Wall and Bradley Beal each logged more than 39 minutes last night. Otto Porter, the Wizards' third-best player behind the two guards, played nearly 38 minutes. The Wizards needed those big minutes from their key players in their physical, hard-fought, leave-it-all-on-the-court 112-108 win against the Warriors. When the Wizards nearly upset the Cavaliers at home before losing in overtime on Feb. 6, they nearly were upset by the Nets in their following game. The Nets have the worst record in the NBA by far, but the Wizards just nipped them 114-110 in overtime as 10-point road favorites. The Wizards clearly were coming down from their huge effort against Cleveland, the best team in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors have adjusted to life without Kyle Lowry. DeMar DeRozan has been on fire averaging 37.7 points and shooting 53.6 percent in the three games following All-Star break. Toronto is better defensively and stronger in the frontcourt since acquiring Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker at the trade deadline and having power forward Patrick Patterson return from injury. Toronto has dominated the Wizards winning the past eight meetings. Certainly the Wizards are much improved. They are deserving of respect and major props. However, this is a terrible spot for them and Toronto also is much improved. This isn't the same Raptors team that was so bad before the break.
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02-28-17 | Red Wings v. Canucks -111 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
Teams playing in their first game off their league mandated extended break are 8-18. Detroit is coming off its bye week. The Red Wings also aren't very good. Their 25-year playoff run is likely to end this season since they're 11 points out of the second wild-card spot. Morale can't be too good for the Red Wings now in action for the first time in a week opening a five-game road trip here. Detroit is 0-3 this season when having been idle for three or more days. Vancouver isn't likely to make the playoffs either. But the Canucks are 18-10-3 at home. Detroit is 2-8 in its last 10 road contests. The Canucks are 7-2 the past nine times they've hosted an opponent with a losing road mark.
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02-28-17 | Fresno State +5 v. Boise State | Top | 74-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Fresno State came on strong at the end of last season and the Bulldogs are doing it again this season winning and covering their last three games. The Bulldogs have been tremendous in an underdog role covering 11 of the last 14 times. By contrast, Boise State has failed to cover in its last six games and also is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games. The line is inflated a bit because it is Senior Night in Boise, but the Broncos don't have any difference makers who are seniors.
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02-28-17 | Kings v. Flames UNDER 5 | 1-2 | Win | 106 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
I expect Ben Bishop to make his first start for the Kings here - and for him to shine in goal. Both teams carry high fatigue ratings. Calgary is playing for the fifth time in eight days. The Flames last played at home 13 days ago. The Kings are in action for the fourth time in six days. LA played last night, too, losing 5-4 in overtime on the road to Minnesota. So I'm expecting a conservative, slow-moving type of game here as the teams deal with their weariness. It's also an important game for both teams in their battle to gain a wild-card playoff spot. Neither team wants to come away with no points from this game. More reason for the teams to play cautious. The Kings are ranked first in fewest shots allowed on goal and give up the fifth-fewest goals. The Flames have allowed two or fewer goals in five of their last six games.
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