Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-05-15 | Washington State +9 v. Oregon State | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachieving and surprise teams of the season. But while the Beavers are 12-0 at home, they simple lack the depth and offense to lay this many points in a Pac-12 matchup. Some regression has happened. More should follow. |
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02-04-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Houston Rockets UNDER 204 | 90-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Look for both offenses to be rusty as the Bulls last played on Friday while the Rockets have been idle since Saturday. That's too long of a layoff for this time of the season when teams are in the rhythm of playing at least every other day. These non-conference opponents are familiar with each other, too, having met last month. |
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02-04-15 | Detroit Pistons v. Indiana Pacers -3 | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Fortunate to be in the Eastern Conference, the Pacers remain in the playoff hunt. They have double revenge motivation and catch the Pistons without rest off a big home win against Miami last night. |
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02-04-15 | Georgia Tech +16.5 v. Duke | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Sandwich spot here for Duke. The Blue Devils are off a huge road win against Virginia and then host Notre Dame on Saturday in a huge revenge game. |
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02-03-15 | Utah Jazz +8.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 102-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
The Trail Blazers are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games and have lost three in a row. This skid is not deceiving. The Trail Blazers are not playing well. |
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02-03-15 | Virginia Tech v. Syracuse UNDER 130.5 | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech has gone under in 20 of its last 28 ACC games. Look for that trend to continue here. |
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02-03-15 | Miami Heat +4.5 v. Detroit Pistons | 91-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
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02-02-15 | Memphis Grizzlies -2 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 102-101 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
The guard-oriented, finesse Suns are not a good matchup against the physical, rugged Grizzlies, who are playing their finest defense of the season. |
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02-02-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay -5.5 v. Wright State | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
Green Bay is coming off just its fifth loss of the season falling at Cleveland State this past Saturday. The Phoenix have won and covered in the game following their previous four defeats. They have a strong historical trend in this direction covering 68 percent of the time during the past 59 instances. |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 229 h 48 m | Show |
New England has a strong offense and a decent-to-good defense. Seattle has the best defense I've seen since the 1985-86 Bears and a mediocre offense with the exception of a top-four running back, Marshawn Lynch, and a big-play quarterback, Russell Wilson, who rates with Aaron Rodgers (when healthy) and Andrew Luck as the only quarterbacks who can beat you three ways - with their arm, brain and feet. |
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02-01-15 | Miami Heat +3.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 83-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
While the Celtics are in rebuild mode again this season having dealt Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green, the Heat are fighting for a playoff spot and consider this a crucial game as they begin a four-game road trip. |
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01-31-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 225 | Top | 87-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
It's easy to see a lot of points being scored by these two teams. But the oddsmaker opened this game much too high considering the circumstances. |
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01-31-15 | Charlotte Hornets +7 v. Denver Nuggets | 104-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
No team is giving up fewer points per game this month than Charlotte at 89.8. The Nuggets have been in a scoring slump averaging 93.1 points during their past seven games. Brian Shaw still can't seem to figure out the right rotation. Denver has lost eight of its past nine. |
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01-31-15 | Houston Rockets -4.5 v. Detroit Pistons | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
The Pistons have yet to win in three games since losing point guard Brandon Jennings for the season. Detroit just has journeyman D.J. Augustin and rookie Spencer Dinwiddie as their only point guards now. |
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01-30-15 | Houston Rockets -6.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 93-87 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Dwight Howard isn't going to play, but the Celtics have a weak front line and the spread isn't as high as it would be if Howard were playing. |
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01-30-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets +7.5 | 127-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Since they met in the playoffs last season, the Raptors have remained good while the Nets have sunk to the point where they would miss the postseason if the playoffs began now. |
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01-29-15 | Utah -6.5 v. UCLA | Top | 59-69 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
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01-29-15 | Colorado v. USC +2.5 | 98-94 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
Colorado is a bad road team, has injuries and USC is playing better than it record shows. |
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01-29-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Orlando Magic +4.5 | Top | 115-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Both of these teams are in rebuilding mode. The Bucks have made bigger strides this season under Jason Kidd and own the stronger bench, but Orlando has the better talent with Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris and an improving rookie point guard in Elfrid Payton. |
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01-28-15 | Oregon State v. Arizona State -5.5 | Top | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachievers and surprise teams of the season. |
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01-27-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Miami Heat -3.5 | Top | 109-102 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
The Heat have been playing tremendous defense, are home and have double-revenge motivation going here. |
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01-25-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns +3 | Top | 120-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
The Clippers have the superstars, but that doesn't mean they are better than the Suns when playing in Phoenix. |
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01-25-15 | Indiana Pacers -123 v. Orlando Magic | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
The Pacers rank No. 3 in scoring defense, are highly motivated to end their seven-game losing streak and have back starting point guard George Hill. |
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01-24-15 | Kansas v. Texas -3 | Top | 75-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
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01-23-15 | Boston Celtics v. Denver Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 100-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Denver had started to show signs of life earlier this month, but have lost four in a row. Three of those defeats came to the Mavericks, Warriors and Spurs, though. |
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01-23-15 | Houston Rockets v. Phoenix Suns -2.5 | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
The Rockets lost a lot of their swagger and confidence after suffering recent blowout losses to Golden State. Now they face the hot Suns on the road, a team they do not match up against well at all. |
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01-22-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Los Angeles Clippers -11.5 | 84-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
The Nets don't have the offense to hang with the Clippers and are fat and happy after holding off Sacramento last night to open their West Coast trip with a victory. They have a far more winnable road game against the Jazz on Saturday. |
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01-22-15 | UCLA v. Oregon State -1.5 | Top | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Oregon State is a perfect 10-0 SU, 8-0 ATS at home this season. I see that streak continuing against a young, depth-shy UCLA team that has failed to cover in six of its past seven away matchups. |
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01-21-15 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 218 | Top | 113-126 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
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01-21-15 | Indiana State +13 v. Northern Iowa | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Northern Iowa is giving up too many points here. Indiana State has won and covered in five of its last six games. The Sycamores also lead the Missouri Valley Conference in field goal percentage. |
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01-20-15 | San Antonio Spurs -7 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
San Antonio is starting to make its move with Kawhi Leonard back healthy. The Spurs have won five of their last six, including three in a row. Leonard helped the Spurs win their last two games - 110-96 over Portland and 89-69 over Utah. San Antonio has tightened its defense allowing just 91.1 points per game during its last six matchups. |
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01-19-15 | Toronto Raptors -120 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 92-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Taking to the road after six straight home games might be the best thing for the Raptors especially since they are taking on the Bucks. |
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01-19-15 | Detroit Pistons +8.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | 82-93 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Detroit and Atlanta have been two play-on teams. But the spot and line value clearly favor the Pistons in this matchup. |
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01-18-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 105 | 151 h 56 m | Show |
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01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -7 | Top | 22-28 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 39 m | Show |
Seattle has the NFL's best defense in nearly 30 years. There is no way the Packers can dent it with Aaron Rodgers on one leg and playing at CenturyLink Field, where the Seahawks are 25-2 SU, 19-7-1 ATS the past three years. |
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01-17-15 | Washington Wizards -4 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 99-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Revenge can be overrated in the NBA. Not here. The Wizards were embarrassed 102-80 at home last night by Eastern Conference rival Brooklyn. |
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01-17-15 | West v. East UNDER 42 | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
There are better defensive players than offensive players in this matchup. This is a down year for senior quarterbacks and it's reflected on each team's roster. There are no big stars and none of the quarterbacks have any former teammates to throw to. This makes their adjustment even more difficult in this type of setting. |
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01-17-15 | Michigan State +3 v. Maryland | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Maryland has been an overachiever this season. That could catch up to the Terrapins here. Michigan State starts to kick things up as the Big Ten season gets going and the Spartans have gotten healthier. |
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01-16-15 | Denver Nuggets +8 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 89-97 | Push | 0 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
A revenge spot for Dallas has the oddsmaker opening this game way too high. The Mavericks sat out Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler and Rajon Rondo when they met the Nuggets at Pepsi Center two nights ago. The Nuggets won, 114-107. |
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01-15-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
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01-15-15 | Oregon State v. Washington -6 | Top | 43-56 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
This is a real circle-the-wagons game for Washington, which has dropped four consecutive games after opening 11-0. The Huskies are better than they have shown while Oregon State is not nearly as good as the way it looked this past Sunday in a 58-56 upset of then sixth-ranked Arizona. |
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01-14-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Denver Nuggets -2.5 | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
The spot couldn't be better for Denver. The Nuggets have been idle for four days and catch the aging Mavericks off an overtime road victory against Sacramento last night. All of Dallas' starters logged at least 36 minutes against the Kings with four of them seeing at least 38 minutes of action. Big man Tyson Chandler played nearly 44 minutes. |
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01-14-15 | Illinois State -3.5 v. Indiana State | 70-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
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01-13-15 | Dallas Mavericks -4.5 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 108-104 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
Dallas hasn't lost three games in a row all season and I don't see the Mavericks losing here. The Mavericks are 19-2 in their last 21 regular-season games versus Sacramento. |
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01-12-15 | Houston Rockets -6.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 113-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a bad matchup for the Nets, who are short in the backcourt without injured Deron Williams and don't have the inside talent to contain Dwight Howard. |
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01-11-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -105 | 154 h 51 m | Show |
The Broncos rate a level higher than the Colts. Throw in a rested, home-field advantage and I see Denver winning this game by double-digits. |
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01-11-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 52.5 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
The weather is going to be cold, but of far more importance to this total going under is the health of each team's quarterback, method of attack and underrated defenses. |
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01-10-15 | Dayton -8.5 v. Fordham | Top | 76-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Dayton is red-hot winning five in a row. The Flyers are averaging 78 points during this span. Fordham doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Flyers. The Rams are averaging 64.5 points and are ranked 11th in the Atlantic 10 in scoring and also next-to-last in field goal percentage. |
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01-09-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves +9 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 84-98 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
The Timberwolves have to win sometime don't they? They are mired in a 13-game losing streak minus key players Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin. In addition, veteran point guard Mo Williams turned an ankle in the Wolves' narrow loss to the Suns two nights and may not play. |
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01-07-15 | Utah Jazz +10.5 v. Chicago Bulls | 97-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm going to take this many points with Utah after word that Trey Burks is healthy enough to play after missing the last game due to illness. Utah has covered seven of its last eight road games and catch Chicago in a flat spot. |
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01-07-15 | Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 86-96 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
I'll take the points with a good Western Conference team versus a good Eastern Conference team. Memphis ranks sixth defensively and is shooting 46.6 percent from the floor. Atlanta ranks fifth defensively and shoots 46.7 percent from the floor. The Grizzlies are 19-1 the past 20 times when outshooting their opponent. |
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01-06-15 | Phoenix Suns -3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
These have been two play-on teams, but I believe the Suns get it done here in a revenge spot and off one of their most impressive victories of the season. |
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01-04-15 | Detroit Lions +8 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
I give Dallas plenty of credit. But I'm not sold on them. They lack talent on defense and are in a position they haven't been in during their present regime - being asked to cover a touchdown in the playoffs with all the pressure and Super Bowl hype surrounding them. It's rare to get this many points with a defense as good as Detroit and with as many good skill position players it has. The key for Dallas is DeMarco Murray. His running sets up Tony Romo and keeps the Cowboys' vulnerable defense off the field. Murray led the NFL in rushing, but he is playing with a surgically repaired hand and had a full workload during the regular season. The Cowboys are playing on short rest this week. The Lions have the No. 1 run defense giving up less than 70 yards on the ground. Detroit also ranks No. 2 in total defense. Only two teams gave up fewer than the 17.6 points the Lions give up per game. The Lions' secondary is vastly improved. Matthew Stafford didn't have an outstanding season, but he's a far above average quarterback and has one of the best wide receiving tandems in the NFL with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. Johnson is healthy again making him arguably the best wide receiver in the league. When the teams met last year, Johnson burned the Cowboys for 14 catches for 329 yards operating against the same cornerbacks Dallas has now. Detroit won that game. Reggie Bush gives Stafford an edge runner and dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield. |
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01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 29 m | Show |
OK, factor in three points for home field advantage for Pittsburgh. Le'Veon Bell isn't going to play. Now does that make these teams even? I say no. The points are worth laying because the Steelers are in much better current form and have the superior quarterback. Baltimore's offense is in a slump, its offensive line is banged-up and its defensive backfield highly vulnerable due to injuries that have wiped out five cornerbacks. Since beating Pittsburgh at home in Week 2, the Ravens have yet to defeat a foe with a winning record going 0-5. Ben Roethlisberger is having his finest season. The Steelers average 27.2 points, 411.1 yards and 301.6 yards passing per game. The Ravens can't match that especially on the road where they have a history of playing much worse. Roethlisberger lit them up six touchdown passes in a 43-23 win in early November at Heinz Field. Even without Bell, Roethlisberger has enough weapons to take advantage of the Ravens' battered, vulnerable secondary. Note, too, that Bell was averaging just 2.7 yards per rush in his last three games worn down by 373 touches. The Steelers have three running backs with fresh legs who will be made to look good by the Ravens' safeties committing to helping out in the passing game rather than moving up in the box. Joe Flacco has had one good quarter in his last three games. He needs a good ground attack to be effective. That's not likely to happen. The Steelers have gotten healthier on defense while the Ravens will be without left tackle Eugene Monroe. Baltimore's only decent running back, Justin Forsett, is worn down after a career-high 235 carries. He had a combined 115 rushing attempts the past three seasons. Forsett hasn't broken the 72-yard rushing mark in three of the past four weeks. Pittsburgh has held nine of its last 10 foes to fewer than 100 yards on the ground. |
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01-03-15 | Utah Jazz v. Minnesota Timberwolves +1 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Much is made of Minnesota's many injuries. But Utah is down to its fourth-string shooting guard with Alec Burks, Rodney Hood and Patrick Christopher all out. The Jazz also lost center Enes Kanter last night in their 98-92 home loss to the Hawks. Kanter suffered an ankle injury leaving Utah thin up front, too, along with the backcourt. |
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01-02-15 | Memphis Grizzlies -4 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
The Grizzlies are back on track following their 95-87 home win against the Spurs this past Tuesday. Memphis doesn't want to give that great win right back with a loss against the lowly Lakers. Memphis ranks fifth defensively giving up 12 points fewer per game than the Lakers, who rank last defensively. The Grizzlies remain without Zach Randolph, but still dominate inside against the Lakers with Marc Gasol and at point guard with Mike Conley, who quietly is having an outstanding season. Conley has taken advantage of the Lakers' weakness at point guard to average 22 points and shoot 56.4 percent from the field in the last three games versus LA. The Grizzlies have defeated the Lakers in eight of the last 10 meetings, including the past four. They beat the Lakers on Nov. 26 by six points when the Lakers played pretty well. I don't think the Lakers will be that sharp here coming off a 111-103 road win at Denver. Kobe Bryant may have had his best game of the season in that victory. Bryant, though, is shooting 37.5 percent from the floor. |
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01-02-15 | Oklahoma State v. Washington -6 | Top | 30-22 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 52 m | Show |
The line is cheap here. Oklahoma State freshman quarterback Mason Rudolph is making just his third start. He'll be facing a defense that has three All-Americans and creates tremendous pressure recording 49 sacks, 27 forced turnovers and nine defensive/return touchdowns. The Huskies should easily control the line of scrimmage. Oklahoma State's offensive line isn't very good surrendering a Big-12 high 37 sacks. The Cowboys also will be without Tyreek Hill, who averaged 159 all-purpose yards per game and had the huge 92-yard punt return for a touchdown that set up the overtime victory against Oklahoma on Dec. 6. That victory allowed the Cowboys to reach this bowl game. Hill was kicked off the team because of being arrested and charged with punching and choking his pregnant girlfriend. Prior to the win against Oklahoma, their regular-season finale, the Cowboys had lost five in a row all by 21 or more points. The Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. I want no part of them especially with Hill's violent action against his girlfriend tarnishing the Oklahoma victory taking away much of that good feeling. Without Hill, Rudolph's main ground threat is pedestrian Desmond Roland, who averages just 3.8 yards per carry and didn't rush for 100 yards in a game all season. Washington enters the matchup in good form having defeated Oregon State, 37-13, and Washington State, 31-13. Huskies quarterback Cyler Miles has a 16-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has passed for four touchdowns during the last two games. Junior Shaq Thompson is the best two-way football player in the country, starring at both running back and linebacker. He's a potential first-round pick if he declares for the draft. He's a huge player for Huskies. He averages 7.5 yards rushing and led the nation with four defensive touchdowns and four fumble recoveries. |
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01-01-15 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 58 | Top | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
Ohio State has a super offensive line and a very balanced attack - an excellent running back in Ezekiel Elliott and very good receivers. Ohio State rushed for 34 touchdowns and threw for 39 other touchdowns. The Buckeyes put up 49 points at Michigan State and 59 against Wisconsin at a neutral site. That's strong stuff. Yet some doubt the Buckeyes' offense because they are using third-string quarterback Cardale Jones. I'm not one of those. Jones was a top high school recruit, who could have been an immediate starter for a lot of schools not as strong as Ohio State. He did very well against Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game in his debut going 12-for-17 for 273 yards with three touchdown passes. Jones is 6-foot-5, 250 pounds and is a load. The Alabama coaching staff just has film on Jones from the Wisconsin game. Jones will be helped, too, by having had 15 extra practice sessions leading up to the game. Nick Saban doesn't have his usual dominant defense having lost five studs to the NFL after last season. Auburn scored 44 points and gained 630 yards on the Crimson Tide at Alabama. Five other teams threw well against the Crimson Tide, which ranked 59th in pass defense. I do like Alabama's offense, though, which has become more wide open under aggressive offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin. The Crimson Tide averaged more than 37 points a game and had 32 touchdowns rushing and 30 through the air. Senior quarterback Blake Sims is mobile and passed for a school-record 3,250 yards accounting for 32 touchdowns while throwing just seven interceptions. He was sacked only 13 times. Sims has outstanding weapons to work with including one of the best running back tandems in the country in T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is expected to be a high NFL draft choice. So offense - not defense - is the way to go in this matchup especially with a fast track inside a dome. |
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12-30-14 | Louisville v. Georgia -6.5 | Top | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 36 h 27 m | Show |
I want the SEC team going for me against the ACC team. I don't trust Louisville's quarterback situation and I like Georgia on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs averaged 41.7 points, best in the SEC. Nick Chubb is an elite runner rushing for 1,281 yards and scoring 14 touchdowns, 12 of which came on the ground. He ran for at least 100 yards and a touchdown during each of his last seven starts. Todd Gurley would have been hard-pressed to do better. Georgia has a reliable quarterback in Hutson Mason, who has a 20-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Louisville could be down to third-string quarterback Kyle Bolin, who stepped in when second-string quarterback Reggie Bonnafon suffered a knee injury in the regular-season finale versus Kentucky. Bolin played well, but there is quite a difference from Kentucky to Georgia. The Bulldogs have the No. 2 pass defense in the country. They shut out Missouri and Troy while holding Auburn to seven points. Auburn averaged 35.8 points even being held to a touchdown by Georgia. |
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12-29-14 | West Virginia -124 v. Texas A&M | Top | 37-45 | Loss | -124 | 30 h 37 m | Show |
West Virginia has an underrated defense. Texas A&M simply has a terrible defense. The Mountaineers held Baylor to a season-low 318 yards. The Aggies have given up an average of 553 yards in their last three games and been outrushed by 531 yards during their past two games. No SEC team surrendered more yards than the Aggies. Texas A&M has only beaten one opponent with a winning record and is in bad form losing five of its last seven. The Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games and already have made a change at defensive coordinator. Yet the line has come down because West Virginia is going with a backup quarterback, Skyler Howard. The Mountaineers have a balanced attack with a good running back and several outstanding receivers. Howard is much improved and received some needed experience completing 57.1 percent for 483 yards and five touchdowns. Howard threw three touchdowns in his first start in the Mountaineers' last game, a 37-24 road win against Iowa State. Howard also gives the Mountaineers a running threat at quarterback something they didn't have before with Clint Trickett. West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen is a top offensive mind. The Aggies are an SEC team, which must be respected, but they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 at neutral sites and West Virginia played an extremely difficult schedule so the Mountaineers are battled tested. |
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12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers +4 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 58 h 26 m | Show |
This is my NFC Game of the Year and here is why: The Panthers are playing their best ball down the stretch inspired by Cam Newton, who is back running and not just sitting in the pocket, and getting much improved play from both their offensive and defensive lines. Their secondary also has gotten faster with a switch to younger defensive backs. Carolina is giving up an average of 13.3 points during its last three games in beating the Saints, Buccaneers and Browns. Carolina also has a strong history under Ron Rivera in December going 14-4 SU and 12-5-1 ATS. New England is the only team with more December victories during this span. The Falcons aren't nearly good enough to lay this many points in a winner-take-all division setting. They can't rush the passer and their secondary took a hit last week with the loss of safety William Moore. The Panthers can key on Matt Ryan, who is playing behind a makeshift offensive line and lacking a ground attack made worse with Steven Jackson not likely to play. |
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12-28-14 | NY Jets v. Miami Dolphins -5.5 | 37-24 | Loss | -115 | 93 h 28 m | Show | |
The Jets played their Super Bowl for Rex Ryan last Sunday and nearly upset the Patriots. I don't see New York having the motivation in this meaningless matchup to put forth a second consecutive strong effort especially visiting sunny South Florida. Without a strong game, the Jets can't stay close on the scoreboard. Geno Smith is just a killer for the Jets with his many mistakes and turnovers. Smith isn't going to have Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold and probably is going to be missing Percy Harvin, too. The Dolphins have a strong defense. They came very close to making the playoffs. Miami is 8-7. If not for late blown leads against three playoff teams - Packers, Lions and Broncos - Miami would be sitting at 11-4 and this line would be much higher. Ryan Tannehill is having his strongest season. The Jets give up more than 25 points a game with a battered, overmatched secondary. There's a class difference here. The Dolphins are unified with Joe Philbin returning as head coach, being at home and catching the Jets at an opportune time. (Editor's note: Long-time pro Stephen Nover is heating up as he goes for his 19th winning NFL season in the last 21 years. Stephen is 7-1 the past two weeks on his NFL premium and free plays and has his NFC Game of the Year going Sunday.) |
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12-28-14 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. NY Giants | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
The Eagles are flawed, but they still are the better team here. The key is will they play hard? Knowing Chip Kelly the Eagles will. Kelly is taking this game serious. He could have given Matt Barkley a chance, but he won't. |
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12-28-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins +6 | 44-17 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 57 m | Show | |
Dallas doesn't need this game and figures to be resting banged-up Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray for much of the game. Without those two Dallas can't play ball control and protect their vulnerable defense, which has a talent deficiency. The Redskins have the skill position talent at receiver and running back to take advantage. Robert Griffin III and the rest of the Redskins received a huge jolt of confidence with last week's upset win against the Eagles. The Redskins will be motivated for this long-standing division rivalry matchup. They have covered the past four years hosting Dallas. Jobs are at stake for many of the Redskins. They should be hard here while the Cowboys are in a letdown spot having ended their four-year playoff drought by burying the Colts last week. |
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12-28-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5 v. Houston Texans | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
Houston isn't strong enough to lay double-digits with fourth-string quarterback Case Keenum, who is 1-8 as a starting quarterback in the NFL. The Jaguars have shown a respectable defense and a no-quit attitude under defensive-minded Gus Bradley. Only four teams have more sacks than Jacksonville. Sure Houston is still alive for a playoff spot - albeit a long shot - but Jacksonville also has motivation. This is a division rivalry made more intense by many of the Jacksonville players close ties to Texas. The Jaguars have revenge and extra preparation and rest time having played last Thursday. They have covered in three of the last four meetings with the Texans. The Jaguars are extremely young on offense starting six rookies, including quarterback Blake Bortles. But these young players have some experience now and fresher legs. Bortles has cut back on his dreadful number of turnovers getting picked off just twice in the last four games on 140 attempts with one coming on a desperate fourth down pass against Baltimore. |
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12-27-14 | Southern Utah +19 v. UNLV | Top | 45-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
Huge letdown spot for UNLV after it scored probably its biggest win in 10 years upsetting third-ranked Arizona, 71-67, this past Tuesday. The Rebels aren't that good and neither is their Mountain West Conference. Throw in the holiday season, which could reduce attendance and the level of intensity, and you have a very live 'dog here. Southern Utah has all of its starters back, has played some decent competition to become battled-tested and will be treating this game much more serious and with far more motivation than the Rebels. The Thunderbirds have covered in nine of their last 13 road games. UNLV is not well-coached and you have to question its maturity level with five freshmen drawing consistent minutes. The Rebels have a far bigger game on deck when it opens Mountain West Conference play on Wednesday against Wyoming on the road. I don't see a focused effort from the Rebels to cover this big of a number. |
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12-27-14 | Nebraska v. USC OVER 62 | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 77 h 34 m | Show | |
I like these two offenses much more than the defenses. Nebraska is used to playing run-oriented Big Ten teams. USC is a different animal. The Trojans put up 49 points on Notre Dame in their last game. Cody Kessler is a standout quarterback for USC, who has thrived under Steve Sarkisian. He completed 71 percent for 3,505 yards with a 36-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Running back Javorius Allen has rushed for 100 yards eight times and the Trojans have five good wide receivers led by the splendid Nelson Agholor, who caught 97 passes for 1,223 yards and 11 touchdowns. Nebraska is going to get its share of points. The Cornhuskers average 37.4 points per game and 446.3 yards. They have Ameer Abdullah, one of the best running backs in the country, and quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr., who has put up excellent running and passing numbers. |
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12-27-14 | Miami (Fla) v. South Carolina +3.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 3 m | Show |
Flat out wrong favorite here. South Carolina has the stronger pedigree, is the better team and plays in the toughest conference in the country. The Gamecocks have won their bowl games during each of the past three seasons, including defeating Wisconsin by 10 points last year. Miami has been to just one bowl game during Al Golden's three previous seasons - and that was a 25-point loss to Louisville last season. The Hurricanes have lost during their past four bowl appearances. The Hurricanes are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games. They have lost nine of their last 17 lined games by double-digits and finished the regular season on a three-game losing streak averaging less than 21 points a game during this span. South Carolina certainly has had a disappointing year. No getting around that, but the Gamecocks are more dangerous than their record indicates having lost four games by seven points or fewer while playing in the toughest conference in the land. South Carolina has the better coach with Steve Spurrier and its offense has more pop with dangerous wideout Pharoh Cooper. The Hurricanes' offense has gone downhill and they continue to commit too many penalties. |
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12-26-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +9 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 107-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
No team has been hotter than Atlanta, which has won 14 of 15. The Hawks have proven they can beat elite competition, too, reeling off five straight victories with those wins coming against the Bulls, Cavaliers, Rockets, Mavericks and Clippers. The first four of those victories were achieved on the road. Atlanta rallied from a 13-point deficit to knock off the Clippers on Tuesday in its last game. I see a letdown for the Hawks as they finally step down in class. The two teams meet again tomorrow night in Milwaukee so it's not a kill spot either for the Hawks. The Bucks should be fired-up after holding a 50-minute players-only meeting following their last game, a 108-101 home loss to the Hornets. Atlanta has been playing outstanding defense, but the Bucks have reached triple digits in 12 of their past 14 games. They are shooting 49.9 percent from the field this month, best in the NBA. The Bucks have covered 12 of 17 road games this season and have the highest scoring bench in the league. That puts them in line for at least a back-door cover if the Hawks play better than expected. |
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12-25-14 | Golden State Warriors +2.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 86-100 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
Golden State is the better team and the set up is right for the Warriors. The Warriors led by 29 points when they rolled past the Clippers, 121-104, in their first meeting in early November. They are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 Western Conference matchups. Golden State is No. 1 in defensive efficiency and also has a top-five offense. No other NBA team is in the top-five offensively and defensively. The Warriors have David Lee back and will be highly motivated following a shocking loss in its last game this past Tuesday against the Lakers. Note that game was played at Staples Center where this matchup is. So the Warriors are rested. The Clippers aren't, though. This is their third game in four days. They've been at San Antonio and had to fly in from Atlanta where they played two nights ago. This makes their third time zone in four nights. Golden State has won and covered 75 percent of the time this season in the 12 games it has played against teams with a winning record. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS the last six times when they faced an opponent with an above .600 winning percentage. Contrast this with the Clippers who are 4-7 SU, 2-9 ATS when facing foes above .500 and are 1-6 ATS when taking on foes with an above .600 winning percentage. The Clippers also have failed to cover 13 of their last 18 home games. |
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12-25-14 | George Washington +5.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 60-54 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
This is gut check time for both of these teams as they battle in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. Neither team is shooting well. Defense figures to be at a premium so taking the points is the way to go. Wichita State is lucky to have survived after nipping Hawaii, 80-79, in overtime two days ago. The Shockers have had three of their seven games this month decided by one point. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The Shockers are playing many freshmen. They will be without backup guard Evan Wessel, who was part of the rotation averaging more than 19 minutes per game. He has an ankle injury. Ron Baker, Wichita State's top scorer, has been cold in the tournament missing 20 of 29 shots from the floor. George Washington also is having problems making shots. But the Colonials are very strong defensively ranking 26th in scoring defense. They are holding foes to 39.4 shooting from the field and 27.5 percent from 3-point range. I see them giving Wichita State problems with their physical defense having the ability to effectively constantly change up from man-to-man to zone. |
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12-24-14 | Fresno State +2.5 v. Rice | 6-30 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
Rice is in bad form getting blown out by Marshall 41-14 and by Louisiana Tech 76-31 in two of its last three games. The Owls gave up the last 41 points in their loss to Louisiana Tech, which was their last game. That's not a good way to enter a bowl game. Rice also was blown out by Mississippi State, 44-7, in its bowl game last season. Fresno State has played well for the most part since an 0-3 start. The Bulldogs have much to prove with a poor bowl history and being the only under .500 team playing in a bowl game. The Bulldogs played the stronger schedule, have a talent edge and I see them motivated and getting the job done. It's a plus for the Bulldogs to have played at Aloha Stadium - with the many distractions of being in the islands - during the last two seasons. |
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12-24-14 | Fresno State v. Rice OVER 59.5 | Top | 6-30 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
I see both teams scoring well over 30 points in this matchup. Rice gives up more than 30 points and ranks 92nd in pass defense. Who can forget the Owls surrendering a staggering 76 points to Louisiana Tech in their last game. That has to totally destroy any confidence. Fresno State always is strong at the skill spots and that holds true again this season with running back Marteze Waller and wide receiver Josh Harper. The Bulldogs, however, give up more than 36 points a game rank 111th in total defense. They have been at their worst outside of the Mountain West Conference giving up 52, 59 and 55 points when they played USC, Utah and Nebraska. Rice has put up 31 or more points in five of its last seven games. |
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12-22-14 | BYU v. Memphis UNDER 55.5 | Top | 48-55 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
Look for defense to rule here. Memphis gives up just 17.1 points per game, which is fifth-best in the nation. The Tigers have a strong defensive front seven and are opportunistic with 27 takeaways. |
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12-21-14 | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | 35-6 | Win | 100 | 136 h 15 m | Show | |
Bruce Arians has done a masterful job coaching the Cardinals up this season, but he's drawing dead here because of his quarterback situation. Seattle has gotten healthy on defense. The result is the Seahawks' dominant defense of last season is back as good as ever. The Cardinals can't compete against it down to third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley, who doesn't have the ability. Since Carson Palmer went down, the Cardinals have only managed four touchdowns in five games. They lack a ground game to take the pressure off Lindley and Larry Fitzgerald hasn't been 100 percent. Arizona would be hard-pressed to put up points against a mediocre defense let alone the top one in the league right now. Seattle has allowed just 27 points during the last four weeks. Seattle is peaking, playing its best ball winning and covering its last four games, including defeating these same Cardinals, 19-3, when Arizona had Drew Stanton at quarterback. Stanton is bad. But Lindley is even worse. Seattle is 18-6-1 ATS versus foes with a winning record. Russell Wilson has the mobility to escape Arizona's pass rush and make big plays with his feet and arm. He's also very good at not turning the ball over. He's accounted for six touchdowns in the last four games with no interceptions. The Seahawks can wear Arizona's defense down running Marshawn Lynch while effectively burning the Cardinals' secondary with play-action passes. |
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12-21-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Oakland Raiders +7 | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Oakland has won its last two home games in convincing style against the Chiefs and 49ers. Those teams are at least as good if not better than Buffalo. So the Raiders are capable - when home like they are here. The Bills are a feisty group that must produce an "A" effort such as they did last week in upsetting Green Bay to do well. But this is a brutal spot for Buffalo. The Bills are not a good road team and are traveling cross-country after one of their most satisfying victories of the season. It's the first time this season the Bills are road chalk and they are laying a touchdown with a bad quarterback. Kyle Orton is an over-the-hill game manager who does have the savvy to rely on his defense rather than take chances and attack defenses. He's not the type of quarterback who can cover margins like this, though, especially on the road. The Raiders can keep Buffalo's fierce pass rushers off Derek Carr because they have a talented running back they have underutilized up to this point - Latavius Murray. He's fresh and ready. |
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12-21-14 | NY Giants v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 44 | 37-27 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
The Rams defense has come on in the second half to become arguably the most dominant defense in the NFL. In their last 5 games, the Rams have allowed just 46 points on two touchdown throws with eight interceptions and four forced fumbles. They have recorded 14 sacks in their last three games. The Giants can't run the ball with Rashad Jennings hurting and their makeshift offensive line can't pass block well enough to make Eli Manning effective. The Rams are very limited on offense with journeyman backup Shaun Hill at quarterback and a below average crop of wide receivers. |
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12-21-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Houston Texans +6 | 13-25 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
The Ravens and Joe Flacco aren't strong enough to lay this many points on the road against this quality of an opponent. The Texans can rush the passer with J.J. Watt and run the ball with Arian Foster. Flacco is at his worst on the road and when being pressured. The Ravens are minus suspended run-stuff nose guard Haloti Ngata. They can't commit to stopping the run because their secondary is decimated with injuries and is a major vulnerable area. The line is this high because the Texans are down to fourth-string quarterback Case Keenum. The Texans have weapons, though, with Andre Johnson back from a concussion. It would just be an added plus if DeAndre Hopkins can play. Keenum has experience with the Texans. He also has the multi-talented Foster to rely on. |
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12-21-14 | Detroit Lions v. Chicago Bears +10 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Jimmy Clausen doesn't come close to matching Jay Cutler's talent level, but the Bears are going to play very hard in this division matchup because of the quarterback change. Clausen does have weapons - Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett - and will be coached up by Marc Trestman, whose strength is coaching quarterbacks. Clausen isn't a scared rookie, but a veteran. He had an excellent preseason completing 64.9 percent for 7.6 YPA and two touchdowns. I believe he'll do fine for this particular game at home and with a rare motivated effort from the Bears. The Lions may let down having clinched a playoff berth yesterday following the Eagles' loss to the Redskins and knowing how dysfunctional the Bears have been, a team they destroyed on Thanksgiving by 17 points. Detroit is just 4-16 ATS as road chalk and has covered only five of 16 times on grass. The Lions also have a horrible track record in December covering just three of their past 15 games in that month. |
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12-20-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Houston Rockets -5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Don't be fooled by the Hawks' 18-7 record. Atlanta has played the weakest schedule of any team. The Hawks have some talented players, but they aren't that good and point guard Jeff Teague may be out. Atlanta is 2-18 in its last 20 road games versus Western Conference opponents. Houston is holding foes to 93 points a game at home. The Rockets have the No. 2 defense in the league and have won 19 straight games at home versus Eastern Conference foes. The Rockets' eight-game winning streak was snapped in a 99-90 home loss to New Orleans. The Rockets had no legs in that game after winning in high altitude the night before in overtime against Denver. It has been more than a year since the Rockets have lost back-to-back home games. |
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12-20-14 | Utah Jazz v. Charlotte Hornets -4.5 | 86-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
I don't see any way the Jazz can win three straight road games. This is Utah's fifth game in seven days - all road contests and their second matchup with in 48 hours. The Hornets have a poor record, but that's in part because they've played a very difficult schedule. They should start to get better as they are healthier and some of their players such as Gerald Henderson are playing better. The Hornets hold a strong inside-outside edge on Utah with Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. |
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12-20-14 | Western Michigan v. Air Force OVER 55.5 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 74 h 18 m | Show |
First off, the weather should cooperate in Boise with this being an afternoon game rather than a night matchup. The afternoon forecast is for temperatures in the 40's with a slight wind and small chance of rain increasing in the night. Look for plenty of offense here. Western Michigan has an excellent quarterback, Zach Terrell, and running back, Jarvion Franklin. He was one of the top freshmen runners in the country rushing 1,525 yards and 24 touchdowns. Terrell threw for 3,146 yards and 23 touchdowns and had the third-best yards per pass mark at 9.53 in the country. Terrell should be able to take advantage of the Falcons secondary, which gave up the second-most passing yards per game in the Mountain West Conference. Air Force has to not only deal with Franklin on the ground, but Western Michigan has two outstanding wide receivers, Corey Davis and Daniel Braverman. Only three receivers in the country had more touchdowns than Davis, who scored at least one touchdown in all but one of his team's 12 games. Air Force is not without majors weapons, including four good running backs and option quarterback Kale Pearson, who went he did throw was effective with a 14-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a passer rating of 162.5 Western Michigan allows 229.3 passing yards per game. The Falcons also have one of the top kickers in the country, Will Conant. He was perfect on extra points and made 18 of 20 field goals. |
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12-19-14 | Utah Jazz v. Orlando Magic -3 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
Orlando is a much improved team. The Magic went 23-59 last season. Orlando is 10-18 this season and has played the most road games in the league at 19. Now the Magic are in a stop-the-pain game after consecutive road losses to Toronto and Boston. Sometimes returning home after a road swing can be tricky, especially coming home to sunny central Florida. But this was just a short tip that ended two nights ago so I'm expecting a focused Orlando effort. Utah is in a rare letdown spot after winning for just the second times in its last 14 games defeating Miami on the road, 105-87, this past Wednesday. The Jazz sank an insane 14 of 25 shots from 3-point range in the victory. This marks the Jazz's fourth road game in a row. It's their third road game in four days and fourth matchup in six days. Utah is 3-10 away from Salt Lake City. The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home contests versus opponents with a losing road record. Orlando defeated the Jazz in Salt Lake City, 98-93, two weeks ago despite missing their best inside player, Nikola Vucevic. Orlando is a much better team with Vucevic back in the lineup. The 7-footer is shooting 51 percent from the floor. Utah ranks second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage.
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12-18-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors -135 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Golden State has won 16 of its last 17 and are eager to start a new winning streak after losing on Tuesday at Memphis. The Warriors are 8-1 at home, winning their last six there. The Warriors have no flaws. They rank No. 1 defensively and are sixth offensively. Oklahoma City is not all the way back despite going 7-1 since Kevin Durant returned. The Thunder have played an extremely easy schedule since Durant has been back facing opponents who were a combined 50 games under .too. They also caught the Cavaliers without LeBron James, Kings without DeMarcus Cousins and Suns without Goran Dragic. In a few weeks, the Thunder may very well be as good as Golden State, but right now the Warriors are better even without Andrew Bogut especially when factoring in home-court. |
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12-17-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +9.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 97-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
The Bucks have the best point spread mark in the NBA at 17-8. That includes a 9-5 ATS road record. They have a strong ATS mark versus Western Conference foes covering 11 of the past 15 times and have gotten the money in five of their last six meetings against Portland. Milwaukee has won in two of its last three visits to Portland, losing last season in overtime. The Bucks did lose their prize rookie, Jabari Parker, for the season in their road win against the Suns two nights ago. That put a damper on that victory, but I feel the Bucks will come out fired up in their first game without Parker. This is a sandwich spot for Portland, which knocked off San Antonio at home two nights ago and plays at San Antonio on Friday. The Spurs are a far more important opponent to Portland than non-conference foe Milwaukee. The Trail Blazers are scoring 4.4 points less per game than last season. However, their defense has improved. Yet the Trail Blazers also suffered a key injury in their last game when center Robin Lopez broke his hand. Lopez had spearheaded Portland's defense. He was averaging 9.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.5 blocked shots. Now the Trail Blazers have to use over-the-hill, Chris Kaman at center, weakening their interior defense. The Bucks have scored 50 or more points in the paint during three of their last four games. |
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12-17-14 | San Diego State v. Cincinnati | 62-71 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
These are two of the stingiest defenses in the country, but San Diego State is the better team. Cincinnati has yet to play a ranked opponent. The Bearcats are inexperienced and struggling to find their offense. San Diego State ranks 14th nationally in scoring defense. The Aztecs are tournament tested having reached the Sweet 16 last season. They have had a week to prepare for this matchup and their offense is better versus man-to-man defenses, which Cincinnati plays. Cincinnati is a tough venue, but San Diego State is 42-18-2 ATS in its last 62 road contests. |
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12-16-14 | Arizona State +3 v. Marquette | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Arizona State beat Marquette last season and Marquette is way down this season. The Golden Eagles are weak defensively, have been outrebounded by nearly nine boards a game and are down to just eight scholarship players after the departure of two bench players. Marquette also is going to be rusty having last played 10 days ago. Arizona State averages five more points per game than Marquette. The Sun Devils also have been strengthened with the addition of UNLV transfer Savon Goodman, who is now eligible. The Sun Devils have outrebounded eight of their nine opponents and made 29 more 3-pointes than their foes. Catching points with them is just a bonus. |
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12-15-14 | Orlando Magic +7 v. Toronto Raptors | 82-95 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Orlando is much improved this season with some underrated young players. They also have Nikola Vucevic back and are in a good situational spot. The Raptors had to rally from 11 points down in the fourth quarter to beat New York on Sunday in overtime on the road. The Raptors are just 5-4 in their last nine games after a fast start. They lack a consistent go-to guy with DeMar DeRozan out. Orlando is at its best on the road. The Magic have covered 12 of their last 16 away matchups. This is a revenge spot for them after the Raptors came from 11 down to nip them on the road, 104-100, last month. The Raptors host the Nets in their next game in two nights. The Nets eliminated them in a bitter seven-game playoff series last season. |
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12-15-14 | Elon +32.5 v. Duke | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Elon is guard-oriented and plays good perimeter defense. The Phoenix are feisty and can hang inside this number against Duke. This is their last opportunity to probably face a Top 25 team during the regular season. Duke is rusty and has a huge look-ahead game on deck. The Blue Devils last played on Dec. 3 when they knocked off then second-ranked Wisconsin. Duke plays defending national champion Connecticut on Thursday. Elon is No. 1 in the underrated Colonial Athletic in 3-point defense and defensive rebounding. The Phoenix nearly beat Missouri on the road and lost in overtime at Northwestern. So they have experience against major college programs. Elon rallied from 19 down at Missouri this past Thursday to pull within one point with less than 30 seconds to play before falling 78-73. The Phoenix outscored the Tigers, 46-32, in the second half proving they won't quit. I like to have a big 'dog like that going for me. |
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12-14-14 | San Antonio Spurs -3.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 99-91 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
The Spurs have had one full day to stew after losing at home to the Lakers this past Friday. The words "pitiful" should be seared on the Spurs' minds. That's what Gregg Popovich called their performance versus the Lakers. I'm expecting the Spurs to play at a high intensity level against the 10-13, inconsistent Nuggets. San Antonio is 16-6 ATS when playing on one day's rest. That mark isn't a fluke since Popovich is the best coach in the business and the most dangerous with time to prepare. The Spurs can't afford not to be sharp with upcoming games against Portland twice, Memphis, Dallas, Clippers and Thunder. Denver isn't playing well losing five of its last six. This includes a 108-96 road loss to Houston last night. The Spurs match up well to the Nuggets particularly inside with Tim Duncan. The Spurs swept the Nuggets last season winning by an average of nearly 20 points a game. They have defeated Denver in 12 of the past 16 meetings. Duncan has dominated Denver averaging 22.8 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.2 blocks during the past six meetings. |
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12-14-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 30-0 | Win | 100 | 119 h 32 m | Show |
Brian Hoyer has not been playing well, but I can't envision a battle-tested veteran Bengals secondary that has permitted just 14 touchdown passes all year getting beat by untested rookie Johnny Manziel making his first start. It's going to be difficult for the Browns to retain their full concentration this week because of all the publicity Manziel's first start brings. The Browns play hard and their defense is better than their statistics, but they are not in the Bengals' class. Only once all season has Cleveland outgained a foe at home. There is zero chance of defensive-minded Marvin Lewis taking the Browns lightly after Cleveland embarrassed Cincinnati, 24-3, during the Thursday night Week 10 matchup. The Bengals haven't seen Manziel, but they have seen the Browns' offense now. Andy Dalton has been sacked just 16 times. Only Peyton Manning has been sacked fewer times among starting quarterback. Dalton has his full complement of weapons back, including a now healthy A.J. Green, who has 33 receptions and three 100-yard games during his past four games with three touchdowns. |
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12-14-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 50.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 100 h 13 m | Show | |
Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP season and Green Bay's offense looked great again on Monday against Atlanta. But that was at home against an extremely weak defense. Now the Packers are traveling on a short week to take on Buffalo, which has one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Packers are not familiar with the Bills' defense having last faced them in 2010. They will have one less practice and preparation day, too. The Bills lead the league in sacks with 48. They rank in the top five defensively in total yards, scoring points and passing yards. As good as the Packers are, they are not going to have their way against this strong of a defense on the road. If you discount the Packers' road game against the Bears, Green Bay is averaging 19.4 points in five away matchups. The Packers' defense isn't as bad as they looked on Monday night. Their run defense is much improved, the linebacker play is better with A.J. Hawk playing less and the secondary remains the deepest in football. The Bills are a ball-control, grind-it-out type of team due to the lack of playmaking skills of Kyle Orton. Going by percentage of time on the field, Orton has been sacked more than any other quarterback. Cold weather, snow and wind also could become part of the equation any time you play a game in Buffalo this late in the year. |
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12-13-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
The 76ers should come in to this home matchup motivated after an embarrassing 88-70 road loss to the Nets last night. The 76ers have better talent than their record shows. This is a tricky spot for Memphis. It's the Grizzlies' lone road game during a six-game span and they just outlasted Charlotte, 113-107, in double overtime last night. All but one of Memphis' starters played big minutes. The Grizzlies do not have a strong bench. The Grizzlies have far more important games on deck - hosting Golden State on Tuesday and playing at San Antonio on Wednesday. So for this game they just want to come away with a victory with no need to go all out to cover any double-digit type margin. The 76ers have covered five of their last seven and are 7-4 ATS at home this season. |
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12-13-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 215 | Top | 105-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Golden State has won 14 in a row. The perception is the Warriors have achieved this by offense. But it has been their outstanding defense. Golden State leads the NBA in defense holding foes to 94.5 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors also rank No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage holding foes to 40.9 percent. No team has shot better than 44 percent against the Warriors from the field during Golden State's winning streak. This is an early start - which should help the under. The Mavericks are about offense, but they don't have the young legs to engage in an up-tempo battle with Stephen Curry. Dallas won't have point guard Jameer Nelson either. That's a plus for the under, too, as Nelson is too old to keep pace with Curry. The under has cashed five of the last six times these teams have met. |
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12-12-14 | Portland Trailblazers v. Chicago Bulls -130 | Top | 106-115 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
The Trail Blazers have been playing above their heads and it caught up to them in their last game, a shocking 90-82 road loss to Minnesota two nights ago. The Trail Blazers scored a season-low and had their worst shooting game of the season. I'm expecting better from Portland today, but not enough for them to beat the Bulls. The Bulls are getting healthier, Derrick Rose is looking better and Tom Thibodeau has dialed up the intensity level. That came together in a 105-80 rout of Brooklyn this past Wednesday. I'm expecting the Bulls to have a carryover performance and remain sharp, especially with a strong revenge motive. The Trail Blazers dealt Chicago its worst defeat of the season when they hosted them on Nov. 21, winning 105-87. The Bulls didn't have Rose, Pau Gasol and Kirk Hinrich in that game. Joakim Noah may not play today, but other than that the Bulls are healthy. Portland hasn't played a winning team during its last eight road games. The only good team the Trail Blazers have played on the road was the Clippers early in the season when the Clippers were struggling. Portland doesn't have a strong bench and is playing on the road for the third time in four days and fourth in six days. The Trail Blazers are 3-10 ATS the past 13 times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. |
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12-10-14 | Long Beach State v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 59-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
The line is lower than it should because San Diego State is coming off one of the worst shooting games of all-time in a 49-36 loss to Washington this past Sunday. The Aztecs shot 20 percent from the floor, scoring the fewest points of a major college program since 1969. But the Aztecs win by defense and rebounding, which they displayed against Washington. They outrebounded the Huskies by seven and held them under 38 percent from the floor. They just couldn't buy a basket. Remember, too, Long Beach State also lost to Washington falling, 80-70. The Aztecs have defeated the 49ers in 12 of the past 13 meetings. The 49ers have allowed an average of 85.8 points on 48.3 percent shooting from the field during their four true road games. They have yet to display the discipline and toughness required to win at this tough of a road venue especially drawing San Diego State off such a dreadful loss. |
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12-10-14 | Washington Wizards v. Orlando Magic +4.5 | Top | 91-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
The Magic are much improved this season and may get back leading rebounder and second-leading scorer Nikola Vucevic, who has missed the past four games with a back injury. Orlando has been idle since Saturday giving it enough time to recover and get its focus back after six consecutive road games. The Magic nearly won four of those last five. They defeated the Suns, Jazz and Kings and fell to Golden State by only one point. The Wizards are playing for the third time in four days. Their last game was a double overtime win against Boston, 133-132, two nights ago. Washington is a .500 team on the road averaging eight points less than at home. The Wizards may be without Nene, who has a sore knee. |
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12-10-14 | Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Hornets -140 | 87-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
The Hornets have been idle since Friday and could start to finally make a move after getting past the Knicks in their last game. The Hornets have been a huge disappointment, but this matchup sets up well for them. Not only have the Hornets been idle for the last four days being home the whole time, but Boston is coming off back-to-back games against the Wizards this past Sunday and Monday, the latter being a double-overtime game. Lance Stephenson has started to play better for Charlotte. Al Jefferson should have another big scoring game in the paint against Boston's weak post players and defensive whiz Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is expected to play for the first time in 13 games after being out with a foot injury. |